Alpargatas

QUARTERLY EARNINGS REVIEW
Alpargatas
BBI Equity Research
Friday, May 8, 2015
Weak in Brazil, Strong Abroad
Alpargatas’ Brazilian operation showed some concerning signs of weak demand
in 1Q15, but this was fully offset by its international operation. The company’s sales
in Brazil declined 9% YoY (excluding Osklen), affected by a 28.5% drop in sporting
goods volumes. However, Alpargatas’ international operation was able to offset that
weak result due to higher prices in the local currency and the BRL’s depreciation against
the USD. Moreover, Alpargatas was able to report a margin expansion, mostly given a
greater share of Havaianas in the product mix, and also due to lower rubber costs.
Finally, EPS improved 5% YoY, driven by better operating results, despite more
pressure from its net financial results. We have a Market Perform rating for ALPA4 as
it is trading at a P/E of13.5 for 2015, which is in-line with the historical valuation.
Moreover, in our view, some volatility may persist especially related to its sporting
goods sales and the consolidated gross margin (because of volatility related to FX
and rubber prices).
Alpargatas
(ALPA4)
Consumer & Retail
Market Perform
Target Price: R$10.50
Upside: 0%
1Q15’s main highlights:
COMPANY REPORT

To ensure a like for like comparison, the figures do not include Osklen (unless
otherwise mentioned) as we did not have its historical figures until now.

Alpargatas’ total net revenues grew just 4% YoY for 1Q15, coming in line
with our forecast, with a 9% YoY drop in Brazil. The Brazilian division’s
sales were pressured by the continuation of weak sales in the sporting goods
division, mostly due to light volumes. In 1Q15, the sporting goods volume in
Brazil tumbled 28.5%, as the unit has been facing a challenging macro scenario
(high-ticket, discretionary items). Meanwhile, flip-flop sales moved ahead by
3.8% YoY, despite a 3.9% drop in volumes. Argentina performed reasonably
well, with revenues growing 28% YoY in Pesos and 39% in BRL. In addition,
US, Europe and exports also did well and revenues grew 18% in BRL, boosted
by the currency depreciation.

Ricardo Boiati- 55 11 2178 5326
[email protected]
Pedro Bueno-55 11 2178 4272
[email protected]
Luiz Felipe Guanais-55 11 2178 4190
[email protected]
Brisk sales in discount channels indicate more difficultly in selling at full
price. On the one hand, Havaianas’ franchise stores reported a 6.1%
contraction in sales, while on the other hand, the outlet Meggashop posted a
7.7% uptick boosted by increased fire sales and higher Mizuno volumes. This is
also in line with Osklen’s use of more fire sales, which suggests that it is
especially hard to sell higher ticket products at full price.
(…continued in following page…)
1
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Bradesco S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários (Bradesco Corretora) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
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COMPANY REPORT
BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 8, 2015

Algargatas’ gross margin rose by 188bps in 1Q15, coming in at 44.1% for
1Q15. This was mostly due to: (i) lower rubber costs (-5% YoY in BRL) in 1Q15;
(ii) a larger share of sandals, as sporting goods volumes dropped significantly;
and (iii) a greater manufacturing productivity in Argentina. On the other hand,
these gains were partially offset by a less favorable FX rate that impacted
imported raw materials.

SG&A expenses improved 46bps YoY to 28.1% of sales. This was mainly due
to the strict control of expenses.

Accordingly, the company’s EBITDA margin increased by 177bps to 17.7%,
boosting EBITDA to R$160mn (+15% YoY and 3% below our estimate).

Adjusted EPS increased 5% YoY to R$0.23. Despite the improved operating
results, its greater net financial result pressured the bottom line.

Osklen reported net revenues of R$43mn (+4% YoY), mostly driven by
higher volumes (+6%), while average prices fell -2%. Its company-owned
stores posted lower sales of 11.6% YoY due to fire sales, although franchise and
multi-brand stores performed well. Meanwhile, the company’s gross margin
decreased 233bps, to 74.1%, after being pressured by higher discounts in 1Q15.
Accordingly, its EBITDA margin dropped 127bps to 1.4%, despite improved
SG&A expenses.
Conference Call Details:
Portuguese
May 11, 5:00 p.m. (Brazil) / 4:00 a.m. (US, EST)
Dial-in number: +55 (11) 3193-1001 / +55 (11) 2820-4001
Conference ID: Alpargatas
English: May 12, 12:00 p.m. (Brazil) / 11:00 a.m. (US EST)
Dial-in number: +1 (786) 924-6977 (USA) / +55 (11) 3193-1001
Conference ID: Alpargatas
Company release:
http://ri.alpargatas.com.br/ingles/arquivos/informacoes_financeiras/Resultados_Trimestrais/2015/PRESS_RELEASE_1T15.pdf
Figure 1: 1Q15 Earnings Review for Alpargatas (Ex-Osklen)
P&L - R$mn
Net Revenues
Gross Margin
Cash SG&A + Others as % of Net Rev.
Reported EBITDA
Reported EBITDA Margin
Adjusted Net income 1
Adjusted EPS (R$)
1Q15A
1Q15E
4Q14A
1Q14A
A/E
Var. %
QoQ
Var. %
YoY
906
915
983
873
-1%
-8%
4%
44.1%
42.2%
38.7%
42.2%
184bps
543bps
188bps
-26.4%
-24.2%
-25.5%
-26.3%
-216bps
-92bps
-11bps
160
165
130
139
-3%
24%
15%
17.7%
18.0%
13.2%
15.9%
-32bps
451bps
177bps
106
0.23
108
0.24
84
0.18
101
0.22
-2%
-2%
26%
26%
5%
6%
1
Adjusted for equity income and the sale of a plant in 1Q14.
Source: Company and Bradesco BBI
Figure 2: 1Q15 Earnings Review for Osklen
P&L - R$mn
1Q15A
1Q14A
Var. %
YoY
0.298
0.281
Net Revenues
43
41
4%
Gross Profit
32
32
1%
74.1%
76.5%
-233bps
(31)
(30)
3%
0.6
1.4%
1.1
2.7%
-45%
-127bps
Volume (`000 units)
Gross Margin
Cash SG&A
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
6%
Source: Company and Bradesco BBI
2
COMPANY REPORT
BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 8, 2015
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(i)
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Company disclosures pursuant to Brazilian securities exchange commission (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários – CVM) Instruction 483/10:
(i) Banco Bradesco S.A. beneficially ow ns 5% or more of equity securities issued by Cielo S.A.. Bradseg Participações Ltda., a subsidiary of Banco Bradesco, indirectly ow ns 5% or
more of equity securities issued by Fleury S.A.. BRADESPAR S.A., w hose controlling group is comprised of the same shareholders that control Banco Bradesco S.A., indirectly ow ns
5% or more of equity securities issued by VALE S.A.
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(vi) Bradesco Corretora receives compensation for making a market in the equity securities of Alpargatas (ALPA4), General Shopping (GSHP3) and Helbor (HBOR3). Bradesco
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Bradesco Corretora research ratings distribution
Rating
Definition
Coverage¹
BR²
Outperform
Expected to outperform the Ibovespa by more than 10%.
46%
100%
Market Perform
Expected to perform in the range of 10% above or below the Ibovespa.
48%
100%
Underperform
Expected to underperform the Ibovespa more than 10%.
1%
100%
Under Review
This indicates that both the target price and the rating are currently being revised.
4%
100%
Restricted
The analyst cannot express his/her view s on the company.
1%
100%
(1)
(2)
Percentage of companies under coverage globally w ithin this rating category. As of
8-May-15 Bradesco Corretora had144companies under coverage globally.
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COMPANY REPORT
BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 8, 2015
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4
Bradesco Corretora Research Team
Econom ics & Research Director
Dalton Gardim am
55 112178 4275
Denis Blum
dalto n@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Tarik Migliorini
Bernardo Keiserman
(Chief Eco no mist)
Banking
Bruno Chem m er, CFA
Financial Services
Rafael Frade, CFA
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Healthcare
Rafael Frade, CFA
Gabriel Gusan, CFA
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Arthur Suelotto, CFA
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Luis Azevedo
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Tales Freire, CFA
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Caio Yamate
55 112178 4276
Education
Luis Azevedo
Tales Freire, CFA
Caio Yamate
Consum er Goods and Retail
Ricardo Boiati
luis.azevedo @bradesco bbi.co m.br
tales@bradesco bbi.co m.br
caio .yamate@bradesco bbi.co m.br
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Fixed Incom e
Altair Pereira
Caio Lombardi
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altair@bradesco bbi.co m.br
55 112178 4225
lo mbardi@bradesco bbi.co m.br
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Vielcka Mansukhani
Sales – (852) 2251 8716
jbriano @bradesco securities.co m
dewayne@bradesco securities.co m
Luiz Fernando Silva
Jae Choi
luiz@bradesco securities.co m
jaecho i@bradesco securities.co m
paulo .pereira@bradesco securities.co m
Vielcka@bradesco securities.co m
Sales - Fixed Incom e – (852) 2251 8718
João Paulo Loyola
Amex Lee
Sales - Fixed Incom e – 01 212 888 9143
Brent Matson
brent@bradesco securities.co m
Leonardo Jafet
ljafet@bradesco securities.co m
Sales Trading – 01 212 888 9141
Christopher Barresi
Sean Harte
cbarresi@bradesco securities.co m
sean@bradesco securities.co m
jplo yo la@bradesco securities.co m
amexlee@bradesco securities.co m
Bradesco Securities UK, Ltd
Sales – 44 207 382 0070
Marcelo Cabral
Robert Hulme
Tim Creasey
mcabral@bradesco securities.co m
rhulme@bradesco securities.co m
tcreasey@bradesco securities.co m
Syndicate Desk – 01 646 432 6642
Shin Fukui
David Pereira
shin@bradesco securities.co m
david@bradesco securities.co m
Sales - Fixed Incom e – 44 207 382 0074
Guilherme Zraick
Sebastian Almquist Tangen
Av. Paulista, 1450 7º andar
CEP: 01310-917 São Paulo – SP
gzraick@bradesco securities.co m
salmquist-tangen@bradesco securities.co m