Colonel Troy Thomas (USAF)

JHU/APL Rethinking Seminar Series
Rethinking Global Security Constructs,
Threats and Potential Responses
www.jhuapl.edu/rethinking
27 April 2015
Colonel Troy Thomas (USAF)
Director for Strategic Planning, National Security Council
2015 National Security Strategy: Process, Principles, and Priorities
Notes:
1. Below are informal notes taken by a JHU/APL staff member at the Seminar.
2. Links to the video, audio, bulletized notes, and presentation files for past seminars
can be found on www.jhuapl.edu/rethinking and the JHU/APL YouTube Playlist.
3. The 2015 National Security Strategy is available from the White House website.
Introduction
To begin Colonel Thomas gave an overview of the principles behind the 2015 National
Security Strategy (NSS 2015), the processes used by the National Security Council (NSC)
staff to develop it, and the priorities reflected in it. He noted that the process itself was an
instrument used by the NSC for doing its work. The resulting document was designed to
reflect the President’s views on how (not whether) the US will lead in the current world
and what needs to be done in the near term to protect America’s security for the long term.
Background
 The NSC Staff began by reviewing the previous 15 National Security Strategies,
each of which reflected its own times
o NSS 2000 looked at the expectations for peace and prosperity that were
shattered by 9/11
o NSS 2002 came out as the US was fighting in Afghanistan and about to go into
Iraq
o NSS 2006 reflected the fact that the war in Iraq was at its highest intensity
o NSS 2010 showed the effects of the ending of the Great Recession and the
winding down of hostilities in Iraq and Afghanistan
o Each Strategy captured a moment in time and projected expectations about
the future and the US role in that future world
 The current NSS was written in a time when the US is arguably stronger than it has
been in years and the America-declining narrative is understood as not valid
o However, as President Obama noted in his UN speech, problems remain
 There is pervasive unease in the world since it is at a crossroads for
war and peace, order and disorder, between hope and fear
o US leadership is needed even more now in order to:
1
Advance America’s own interests
Uphold the international order needed for the prosperity and security
of the whole world
The 2015 NSS was animated by concerns for:
o The need for US leadership in the world
o A rules-based international order that works best if:
 Citizens are empowered
 States are responsible and democratic
 Multi-lateral organizations operate effectively
The Strategy was informed by challenges and risks that the country faces including:
o Proliferation and use of nuclear weapons
o Persistent threats from terrorist organizations
o Fragile states which spawn violent non-state actors, criminal networks, and
infectious diseases
o Failures in governance and endemic corruption problems which are holding
back countries and regions from achieving their potential
o Growing dangers from disruptive and destructive cyber attacks
o Possibility of another world-wide economic slowdown
The US also has obligations to look at the long-term trends and shifts in the security
environment, which include issues such as:
o The US is now facing greater competition from other major powers (Geopolitics is back!)
o Diffusion of power beyond nation-states means that more actors are more
connected and can more easily disrupt positive collective actions
o Changes in the global economy (from technology, demographics, energy
markets, etc.) can also be disruptive
NSS 2015 avoided building its core around a single threat or trend
o Instead, it considers a diverse set of strategic threats
o Russia, terrorism, and China all deserve attention, but none are central to the
Strategy
NSS 2015 is designed to be forward-looking and forward-leaning on US leadership,
which comes from America’s strength, and requires long-term US involvements







The Process – Valuable in Itself
 Development of NSS 2015 began with high-level interagency deliberations, mostly
at the deputy secretary level, on the top risks and possible opportunities
 There was a deliberate, inclusive integration of ideas / concerns from agencies and
departments including issues related to current crises (Ukraine, Ebola, etc.)
 NSC Staff met with multiple agencies and departments frequently, as well as
consulting with outside experts leading to multiple reviews of multiple drafts
 Secretaries and deputies met in the Situation Room to discuss the Strategies
 The President provided essential guidance outlining his concepts at the beginning,
middle, and end of the process
o The President’s views on issues were constantly provided by the National
Security Advisor
2




President Obama’s early guidance helped clarify the purposes of the NSS 2015
o Seen as more than a public affairs document or a bureaucratic response to a
Congressional mandate
o Designed to tell the story of American power, while reconciling US ambitions
and abilities
o NSS 2015 was also crafted to:
 Send signals of support to allies, while also deterring potential
adversaries from taking up arms against the US
 Build support among the American people and in Congress for the
President’s vision and agenda
 Provide guidance to those who carry out US foreign policies
o Bottom line: NSS 2015 had many purposes and multiple audiences, which
provided a large hurdle to overcome
Some practical decisions on structure and orientation had to be made early on so
that NSS 2015 would:
o Be forward looking, not just a scorecard for past priorities
o Uphold the President’s comprehensive agenda from the 2010 NSS
o Focus on the priorities the President has identified for the 4th quarter of his
administration
Result was that the NSS 2015:
o Offers no big surprises; no policy shifts, no initiatives, no new funding – so it
should feel familiar
o Is significantly shorter with about half as many pages as the last version and
shorter than most earlier ones (in the hopes that more people would read it)
o Indicates better the links to resources – the means for implementing the
strategy
NSS 2015 was designed to go to Congress the same week as the FY16 Budget
o As was intended Goldwater-Nichols Act (but rarely accomplished) – the
national security strategies report accompanied the national budgets
o NSC worked closely with Office of Management and Budget as well as the
agencies and the departments of the government throughout the process
o Both the Budget and the NSS are clear about the need to end Sequestration –
a self-inflicted wound
Development of the Principles
 No process or strategy could anticipate all future challenges because of the dynamic,
fast-changing security environment that has too many variables
 A strategy:
o Can and should establish principles reflecting the President’s leadership
philosophy
o Be a guide for national security decision making, especially when facing the
unexpected and overall uncertainty
 NSS 2015 begins by identifying principles that the President has spoken about and
the US has acted on
3
o Represent a bipartisan consensus favoring moderation and balance in US
foreign policy that can be traced back to our nation’s founding
The Principles
 First and foremost: The US will lead with purpose guided always by its enduring
national interests including:
o Those rooted in the Constitution – Security, Prosperity, Values
o A rules-based international order, a concept which gained prominence under
President George H. W. Bush, whose NSS envisioned a new world order
 Second: The US must lead from a position of strength
o American influence in the world is a function of its national power
o The US should now be confident about its place in the world but not take its
position or power for granted
o The US needs smart investments in strategic fundamentals including the
education of its children to further strengthen and sustain US leadership
 Third: The US must lead by example
o When the US upholds our values at home, it is better able to promote to the
world these values including:
 Safeguarding civil liberties and rights through greater transparency
and accountability
 Owning up to mistakes and taking corrective actions
o However, the US needs to overcome the political dysfunction that
undermines national unity and erodes confidence in America abroad
 Fourth: The US must lead with others
o Alliances and partnerships are a strategic asset that can’t be replicated
o Security relationships provide essential capabilities and capacity by:
 Helping to share burdens of maintaining security and upholding
standards / norms that should govern international behavior
 Deepening and broadening security relationships that would enhance
the credibility of US actions and achieve more sustainable solutions
 Fifth: The US must combine all instruments of national power for effectiveness and
sustainability
o The US military is essential leverage for US diplomacy
o Use of force is not the only, nor the most effective, tool for many of the
challenges
o To make US strategy work, all its strategic assets and advantages must be
brought to bear on these challenges
 Finally: The US must take a long-term perspective
o While recognizing that some problems elude quick and easy fixes and some
opportunities take time to mature
o When the US cannot control events, it can and must seek to shape the flow of
history
 Mostly, this means grinding it out, day in and day out, to advance
America’s security on multiple fronts
 Sometimes it means acting decisively – even boldly – to defeat a threat
or unlock an opportunity
4
Priorities
The NSS 2015 advances a balanced portfolio of priorities that are worthy of a Great Power
with interests around the world.
 First: In NSS 2015 the “means” element of the strategic logic calls for fortifying the
foundations of US national power
o Chapters start by laying out why and how the US needs to invest in strategic
fundamentals by providing funding and support for:
 National defense, homeland security, energy security
 Science and technology, American values, etc.
o While the economy may be resurgent, there is still work to do to lock in a
new era of growth and reduce inequality
o Actions recommended by NSS 2015 include:
 Ending Sequestration to ensure the military remains without rival,
versatile and responsive, with leaders of competence and character
 Continuing modernization of the US tools for diplomacy and
development
 Further reforming intelligence collection and sharing in ways
consistent with American values
 Second: In NSS 2015 the “ways” element of the strategic logic calls for advancing the
transition to a more sustainable global security posture through:
o Using unique and decisive US capabilities within coalitions and in support of
local partners
o Repositioning forces globally to act swiftly and decisively when and where
necessary to protect US citizens and interests by:
 Continuing to apply intense pressure to terrorist networks to include
Al Qa’iada, ISIL, their affiliates extending from South Asia to the Sahel
 Working with others in a comprehensive way to deal with the threat
posed by foreign terrorist fighters and to counter violent extremism
 Assuring access to shared spaces (cyber, space, air, maritime – the
lifelines of global economy) through a dynamic global security posture
 Third: Also speaking to the “ways” of the strategic logic, NSS 2015 makes clear that
the US will actively engage in every region to promote prosperity and security by:
o Advancing a high-standard trade agenda and opening markets for US goods,
services and investments
 For example, the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership is a top priority that
reinforces another – the rebalance to Asia and the Pacific
o Deepening and diversifying engagement across the Pacific
o Remaining committed to ensuring that the Trans-Atlantic Alliance is a
bulwark against regional aggression and hub for a global security network
o Outlining how the US will:
 Seek stability in the Middle East
 Invest in Africa
 Deepen integration in the Americas
o All of the above must be done within a context of an international system that
has served the US and the world well for 70 years, but now needs to evolve
5


Fourth: NSS 2015 seeks to accelerate progress on today’s top transnational
challenges, some of which carry over from past National Security Strategies such as:
o The strategic choice: What are these challenges are and how should the US
approach them
 Requires addressing the balance and relationship between statebased and transnational risks to US national interests
o Challenges identified in NSS 2015 include:
 Preventing the proliferation and rolling back of the production of the
world’s most dangerous weapons remain a high priority
 Working to ensure an open and free internet while setting new
standards for cyber-security and protecting critical infrastructure
 Improving tools and partnerships for handling fragile states as well as
transnational crime and endemic corruption
 Such conditions keep fragile states weak and dictators in
power
 Developing more/better ways to anticipate, prevent and respond to
global health threats
 Continuing to confront the climate change crisis with bold action at
home and abroad to secure a major agreement in Paris shortly
Finally: NSS 2015 describes how the US will seize the opportunity for human
empowerment on a global scale
o Many recent threats to US security came from authoritarian states that seek
to suppress democratic forces
o In response US strategy calls for defending democracy and standing with civil
society by:
 Supporting the voices for freedom and change in formerly closed
nations with recent openings such Burma and Cuba
 Building on the extraordinary progress of the last few years toward
ending extreme poverty
 Seeking equality for persecuted communities
 Working to lift up women and girls to their rightful and equal role in
building the future
Conclusion
Colonel Thomas disagrees with those who say the strategy is too aspirational
 NSS 2015 offers an ambitious, but achievable agenda if the bipartisan center of US
foreign policy can be restored
 The US has the standing, resources, and talent to fulfill its strategic logic
o The US can achieve the “ends” through the “ways” it offers with the “means”
called for in the budget
 However, must be honest about what is and is not possible
 The President states in the Preface that America’s enduring strength:
“…does not mean we can or should attempt to dictate the trajectory of all
unfolding events around the world. As powerful as we are and will remain,
our resources and influence are not infinite.”
6



Consequently, the US must make hard choices among many competing priorities
The US also needs strategic persistence and patience within a long-term perspective
which:
o Sustains US national power and extends US influence into the future
o Helps the US find the middle-ground between overreach and retrenchment
o Helps the country to keep its balance
In summary, the 2015 National Security Strategy:
o Provides a vision and a blueprint for the strong and sustainable leadership
 That only America can deliver
 Is essential for the upholding of a rules-based international order,
which is at risk
o Sets the US, and the community of nations, on a path toward a new era of
prosperity
o Affirms a simple truth that prosperity leads to strength and strength leads to
security
QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION
Re: The National Budget and the National Security Strategy
 Hard to say which really developed first since it was an iterative process that
evolved both using a continuous dialog among participants
 Looking at it one way, the NSS discussions started first in order to provide priorities
o The Strategy document continued to evolve over the year
o At the same time the NSC had discussions with representatives of the Office
of Management and Budget (OMB) to ensure budget and strategy lined up
o Resourcing decisions were informed by NSS priorities
 NSC Staff went through the NSS identifying what issues had resource implications
and costed those out before sending the Budget and the NSS together to Congress
o The Budget provides much more detail
o All the President’s priorities are reflected in the FY 2016 Budget
Re: Iranian Negotiations and Corruption
 Iran’s corruption was probably not a major element in the recent negotiations
 Corruption issues were raised up in the NSS because there is a great deal of
evidence indicating that corruption significantly holds back economic development
 Impossible to tell what exactly brought the Iranians to the negotiating table – all (oil
and goods embargos, corruption problems) had an impact
Re: Departmental Inputs to the Development of the NSS
 At the beginning of the process, the NSC Staff got hundreds of inputs primarily for
the early sections of the NSS
o The Introduction and the Preface get the most attention since it is expected
that those are the areas most likely to be read
 In later detailed areas, the appropriate agencies have a great deal of input
7



Senior leaders were deeply involved in concepts like the responsible use of force,
other issues that come up often
o Such concepts have not been put into shadow boxes – the lack of which is an
innovation for national security strategies
NSS 2015 also discusses the responsible use of surveillance and the responsible use
of sanctions
o In development, the team considered where in the NSS economic sanctions
as a tool foreign policy should be discussed and how they should be used
o Much debate considered the use of sanctions and how to develop a global
financial system that works for everyone
There were significant discussions about policies that should be considered for
specific regions such as the Middle East
o Senior leadership worked a great deal on and provided significant insight
about the major relationships (Russia, China, India, allies and partners, etc.)
Re: International Order
 In the list of enduring national interests, the only one of the four to be changed from
the 2010 version was the 4th – adding rules-based in front of international order
o The concept of rules-based international order had been considered before
but it needed to be emphasized more
o Some 2014 situations, such as efforts to change borders through armed
aggression, showed violations of what had served well for many years
 NSS 2015 emphasized that US leadership of international order works best with:
o Empowered citizens and responsible states
o Support from effective multi-lateral organizations
 Not really a change in intentions – just a lifting up of concepts that are important
now
Re: Identifying Sources for Rules-Based Rules
 Start with the UN Charter, which also identifies values and expectations about the
behavior of states in the international order
 Consider the Geneva Convention
 Review the UN Security Council Resolutions that have been passed
o These have become customary rules of accepted international behavior
o Should also take into account the global consensus about what is or is not
considered acceptable behavior
o The General Assembly in recent years has developed the concept of a
responsibility to protect people – an evolution in the rules
 What is acceptable evolves over time
o China, Russia, others should have a say in what the rules are
o However, they also must be willing to follow established rules
8
Re: The Audience for NSS 2015
 Hard to write one document to speak to multiple audiences but the NSS must try
o Must speak to the American people, Congress, the government workers who
must implement policies as well as speak to the international community
o Really more of a rhetorical difficulty to explain the concepts that have been
derived for the policy
 It is known that the NSS is read more abroad than at home
 Also known that those abroad got the signals that the NSS was meant to send them
o Basic concept: allies will feel reassured about US concerns and adversaries
would have second thoughts about threatening the US
 NSS takes American national values as its foundation with a deep sense of history
o US values are, arguably, informed by those of other countries since the US is a
country of immigrants and an open society
o At the same time US must try to avoid mirror-imaging
 NSS wants to convince its allies about US ideas, not compel them
o Appears to be working when looking at how others might see the US
Re: Cyber Issues
 NSS 2015 wanted to raise up the importance of cyber concerns and protection of
critical infrastructure
 The NSS also wants to advance the norms of good international cyber behavior
o US has already shown that it intends to hold perpetrators accountable for
bad cyber behavior
o Also calls for strengthening US cyber defenses
 2015 is the first NSS to discuss the destructive cyber attacks
 NSS 2015 puts more emphasis on holding states and non-state actors accountable
for their cyber activities
Re: Whether Strategies Are Working
 Maybe too soon to judge on most specific examples
 Ukraine: Can see all the Principles of the Strategy at work in response to Russian
aggression
o US led response of the international community
 Focusing on maintaining unity with European allies
 Strengthening NATO to deter further aggression against its members
 Encouraging Ukraine to carry out its reforms and responsibilities
o While possible to see that things are going on, can’t tell if the Strategy is
working
 However, do know that things could be worse
 Problem: It is hard to prove a negative
o Activities in recent days show that the crisis isn’t over
 Climate change: Trend lines are generally positive
o Reached historic agreement with China on carbon reduction
o Having some productive discussions with India
9

o Taking bold actions at home
o Result: In last six months have seen shift in views about what might be
accomplished at the Paris conference later this year, but long way to go
Yemen: Doesn’t appear to be responding well to the Strategy
o Before the most recent crisis, US was using its unique capabilities for ISR,
training/advising, plus economic resources to help the government reform
o Now a renewed civil war is making it harder to move to a negotiated
settlement and get Yemen on the right track
o Must be considered a case where the Strategy is not working as intended
o The President has spoken about the complexity of this issue
o Can’t expect that US will always have a steady march forward especially with
such long-standing trouble spots as Yemen
 May be too soon to judge
 Looks as though the new sustainable counter-terror model is not
working there
 But there is hope that can work eventually
Re: Non-state Actors and Rules
 The Strategy does not expect ISIL to follow established rules of behavior
 Goal with ISIL: Degrade and eventually defeat them and in so doing reestablish
sovereign boundaries and Iraqi rule over its territory
o The desired result would be a reasserting of international rules
 Some non-state actors (multi-national corporations / armed groups ruling outside
the authority of a capital / some cities) need to be brought into the system
 Perhaps a new Geneva Conference is needed to take into account non-state actors
and other theologies such as Islam
o Ideas exist and need to be discussed about how to account for these other
non-state elements
Re: State Department Participation in the NSS 2015 Development Process
 State did play a big role from the start – even Secretary Kerry was directly involved
in discussions
 Early on in NSS 2015 there are strong statements about the importance of
diplomacy and how the military provides leverage for diplomacy
o Concepts largely came from State Department inputs
 Diplomacy and Defense are meant to be seen in NSS 2015 as deeply inter-connected
o Discussions with State Department were energetic
o SecState Kerry released a strong statement about it on its release and spoke
about it at the Munich conference
Re: Budget Limitations
 The Chairman and the Joint Chiefs, when discussing budget risks to strategy, are
referring to issues in the QDR and the Defense Strategic Guidance – not the NSS
o However, the NSS was submitted with the Budget that has a specific topline
10



If don’t get the military investments or other funding identified as necessary to the
Strategy, then must take another look at the Strategy
o If Sequestration or some similar variation occurs, DoD may need to
reconsider its strategy
o The NSS is written at a level so if the budget comes in at those levels, there
won’t be a substantial need to make changes
Limited budgets would require accepting more risks
o There may also be more opportunities that the US will not be able to seize in
the near term
Identifying exactly what limitations would hold back which opportunities would
require a more careful look related to available budget levels
o Generally, the US will be taking more risks – things it wants to do take longer,
and some things it won’t be able to do at all
Re: The Process
 Thousands of inputs came from all Departments and agencies
 First: looked at history and purpose of the NSS and the legislative requirements
o Read all the previous Strategies and reviewed the continuity and changes
over time across all issues
o Noted that there was very little change in the table of contents of all the
Strategies
 Second: Ensured that all the participants shared an understanding of the strategic
context – the risks and opportunities that might be involved
o Got good input from the national intel community
 Third: Received good guidance from the President, with lots of notes
 Fourth: Made development negotiations inclusive
o One person could have written a strategy document but better to take the
time to have many in the conversation
o Spent a lot of time discussing how to talk about diplomacy vs. defense vs.
development vs. sanctions, etc.
o Some meetings very large; some bi-lateral; lots of emails and phone calls
 Fifth: Throughout the process, the NSC Staff invested a lot of time in building
relationships across agencies
o Also reached out to academics and think tanks and those who had written
previous Strategies to get feedback
 Once it was published, all of the agencies and departments came out in strong
support of the final document
o Those who would be charged with implementing the strategies had
participated in the development and so had buy-in for the final result
Re: Whole of Government and the Goldwater/Nichols Act
 In the mid-2000s, there was an effort to look beyond and possibly expand
Goldwater/ Nichols creating many studies
 The current structure does have shortcomings, however, the interagency process
that has developed does work
11

o Was very hard to get input from the other Services 15-20 years ago
o Having fewer entities involved may make decisions easier but the problems
are much more complex now
The process that began in the Bush 1 Administration works well but needs adjusting
o For example, a need for more strategic planning is always cited by planners
o Process is not broken but can be improved
Re: NSS 2015 Participants
 At all the agencies there were natural counterparts to the NSC Strategic Planning
office – usually in their own planning sections (OSD-Policy and J-5 for the military)
 NSC expected that each counterpart office would come to the NSS discussions with a
coordinated view from their entities – didn’t always work
o Drafts were circulated and comments were submitted in the various agencies
o Definitely got input from entities outside policy offices
 Also reached out to representatives from outside the policy-development groups
o Example: CJCS sent all the Service chiefs the Strategy for inputs from the
individual Services
Re: Congressional Relations
 Discussions with Capitol Hill went through the legislative liaison office that is
constantly engaged with Congress
o During development NSC did not go up to the Hill to brief Congress
o No formal connection but can see legislative input to President’s priorities
 For example, can see that happening now with Congressional
interactions over the Iran deal
 All feeds back into the system – unstructured on the whole NSS but
very structured on individual pieces
 NSS 2015 was given to Congress when it was completed with the expectation that
there would be feedback
Re: Other National Strategies
 State will be producing its Quadrennial Diplomacy and Defense Review
 Four other quadrennial reviews were developed over the last year or so
o QDR for Defense
o Homeland Security Review
o National Intelligence Strategy
o First installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review
 All five must align with the NSS and each other
o Not sequenced to be produced after the NSS – but that would be the ideal
o A more iterative process
 Before the development of all the strategies started, had meetings on the security
environment, which provided an intellectual scaffolding and framework
 Held a high level interagency meeting where each department talked about its own
strategy
o Identified areas of potential disconnects
12


o Talked about presidential priorities that should be reflected in the strategies
NSC reviewed the strategies as they were being developed
o When it appeared that one of the strategies moved away from the concepts of
the NSS, negotiations occurred to resolve the disconnects
o Words may differ slightly from one strategy to another but in general they all
align
Other very specific strategies have also been produced recently
o Examples: National Strategy for Combatting Wildlife Trafficking, and
National Strategy for the Arctic
o NSC Strategic Planning Office is also responsible for:
 Helping the various individual strategies move through the
development process
 Reviewing those strategies for consistency with the NSS
13