Henrik LøvscHaL - BIIR

Dry Bulk markeds-grafer
December 2011
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
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2 af 12
World GDP growth and forecast
GDP Growth (%)
15,0
13,0
13,0
11,0
11,6
10,4
10,4
9,6
9,2
2008
2009
9,0
8,7
E2011
E2012
9,0
7,0
5,0
3,0
1,0
-1,0
-3,0
-5,0
2005
2006
2007
US
Europe
2010
China
India
Brazil
Efterspørgsel efter Major og Minor bulk commodities
Total bulks: Major and minor
3000
2.344
2500
2000
1500
1000
1.402
1.477
860
904
1.616
1.713
970
1.824
1.011
1.960
2.071
2.443
2.516
2.088
1.083 1.140 1.132
1.021
1.131
1.191
1.188
500
0
2002
.
2003
2004
2005 2006
Major bulks
2007
2008 2009
Minor bulks
2010
2011
E2012
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
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3 af 12
Dry bulk spotrater
Dry bulk spotrater USD/dag
40.000
37.500
35.000
32.500
30.000
27.500
25.000
22.500
20.000
17.500
15.000
12.500
10.000
7.500
5.000
2.500
0
2009
2010
Panamax
2011
Supramax
2012
Handysize
Dry bulk kontraheringer
180.000.000
Dry bulk contracting until 1. december 2011 in dwt.
160.000.000
140.000.000
120.000.000
100.000.000
80.000.000
60.000.000
40.000.000
20.000.000
0
1996
Capesize
1998
2000
Panamax
2002
2004
Handymax
2006
2008
2010
Handysize
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
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4 af 12
Handysize dry bulk kontraheringer
Handysize dry bulk contracting in numbers - 2001 - 1. december 2011.
600
500
numbers
400
300
200
100
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD
2011
Ordrebog i procent af nuværende tonnage
Dry bulk orderbook i % af nuværede tonnage opgjort per segement. 1. December 2011
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2002
2003
2004
Capesize
2005
2006
Panamax
2007
2008
Handymax
2009
2010
2011
Handysize
2012
Total
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
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5 af 12
Scrapping
Total bulk carrier demolition (mio. dwt.). 1 december 2011
3,00
2,75
2,50
2,25
2,00
1,75
1,50
1,25
1,00
0,75
0,50
0,25
0,00
2005
2006
Capesize
2007
2008
Panamax
2009
2010
Handymax
2011
2012
Handysize
Aldersfordelingen af den eksisterende flåde
Aldersfordelingen i Handysize
10- 39.999 dwt.
Aldersfordelingen i Handmax
40- 59.999 dwt.
4% 10%
0-4 years
0-4 years
39%
30%
5-9 years
5-9 years
9%
10-14 years
10-14 years
15-19 years
9%
4%
8%
15-19 years
13%
20-24 years
20-24 years
45%
25+ years
10%
Aldersfordelingen i Panamax
60- 79.999 dwt.
14%
0-4 years
19%
8%
Aldersfordelingen i Capesize
over 80.000 dwt.
7%
4%
0-4 years
14%
5-9 years
5-9 years
10-14 years
10-14 years
15-19 years
13%
25+ years
19%
15-19 years
9%
20-24 years
20-24 years
20%
26%
52%
25+ years
14%
25+ years
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
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6 af 12
Udviklingen i tonnagen
Historical Dry bulk fleet in dwt. (100.000)
800.000
700.000
600.000
dwt.
500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
E2012
E2013
E2014
E2015
0
Handysize 10-39.999
Importen af jernmalm til Kina
Handymax 40-59.999
Panamax 60-99.999
Capesize \100.000
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
Udvalgte landes industrielle udvikling og stålforbruget
Steam coal import til Kina
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7 af 12
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
__
Main major dry bulk trade – Iron ore, coal and Grain
Udviklingen i efterspørgselsmængder for de vigtigste commodities
8 af 12
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
__
9 af 12
Salgspriser for second hand handysize bulk carriers
Handysize sales 26.000 - 34.000 dwt. - build 1984-2011
Sales from 1. March 2011 to 1. december 2011
30,0
27,5
25,0
22,5
USD mio.
20,0
17,5
15,0
12,5
10,0
7,5
5,0
2,5
0,0
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Handysize vessel prices
60,0
55,0
50,0
45,0
USDm
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
25/30K DWT Handysize Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Prices
Handysize 25K-30K 5 Year Old Secondhand Prices
Handysize 25K-30K DWT 10 Year Old
Handysize 25-30K DWT 15 Year Old
2011
2012
2010
2012
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
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10 af 12
Fragtrater for bulk carriers i perioden 2002-2012
USD/day
Standard 45.000 dwt - Handymax T/C rates
75.000
70.000
65.000
60.000
55.000
50.000
45.000
40.000
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
6 month T/C
2007
2008
2009
3 Year T/C
2010
2011
2012
2010
2011
2012
Standard 30.000 dwt - Handysize T/C rates
55.000
50.000
45.000
40.000
USD/day
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
6 month T/C
2007
2008
3 Year T/C
2009
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
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11 af 12
Udviklingen for skibsværdierne
USDm
Panamax vessel prices
80,0
75,0
70,0
65,0
60,0
55,0
50,0
45,0
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2010
2011
2012
2010
2011
2012
Panamax 72K Bulkcarrier 10 Year Old
Panamax 69K DWT 15 Year Old
Panamax 60K DWT 20 Year Old
USDm
Handymax vessel prices
65,0
60,0
55,0
50,0
45,0
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Handymax 42K-45K 10 Year Old
Handymax 42-45K DWT 15 Year Old
Handymax 42-45K DWT 20 Year Old
USDm
Handysize vessel prices
50,0
45,0
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
15,0
10,0
5,0
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Handysize 27K DWT 20 Year Old
Handysize 25-30K DWT 15 Year Old
Handysize 25K-30K DWT 10 Year Old
Investeringsgruppen Danmark A/S
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12 af 12
Tilgang og afgang af handysize og handymax bulk carriers i perioden 2006 til 2012
Månedlig tilgang og afgang Handysize bulkcarriers målt i DWT.
(10.0000 -39.999 dwt.)
1.500.000
1.000.000
500.000
0
-500.000
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
jan-11
jul-10
okt-10
apr-10
jan-10
okt-09
jul-09
apr-09
jan-09
Demolition
apr-11
Deliveries
okt-08
jul-08
apr-08
jan-08
okt-07
jul-07
jan-07
apr-07
okt-06
jul-06
apr-06
-1.500.000
jan-06
-1.000.000
Nettotilgang
Månedlig tilgang og afgang Handymax bulkcarriers målt i DWT.
(40.0000 -59.999 dwt.)
2.500.000
2.000.000
1.500.000
1.000.000
500.000
0
Deliveries
Demolition
jan-11
okt-10
jul-10
apr-10
jan-10
okt-09
jul-09
apr-09
jan-09
okt-08
jul-08
apr-08
jan-08
okt-07
jul-07
jan-07
apr-07
okt-06
jul-06
apr-06
-1.000.000
jan-06
-500.000
Nettotilgang