august 2015 - SKAGEN Fondene

SKAGEN m2
Statusrapport – august 2015
Hovedtrekk – august 2015
• SKAGEN m2 falt 4,0 prosent i august og tapte terreng til referanseindeksen. Det var en svært volatil
måned med kontinuerlig uro rundt det kinesiske aksjemarkedet. Hovedgrunnen var utsikter til lavere
økonomisk vekst samt frykt forbundet med valuta. I tillegg trakk det vedvarende fallet i råvarepriser
med seg både aksjekursene og valutaene til vekstmarkedene nedover til nye bunnivåer.
• Det beste markedet i august var Tyskland. Blant de svakeste var Brasil, Indonesia, Kina og Thailand.
• Vår beste aksje var greske Grivalia, som gjorde det godt i løpet av måneden. Amerikanske Ashford har
også kommet seg etter en svak juli og var nummer to på listen over beste bidragsytere. Den svakeste
bidragsyteren var Soho China etter negative nyheter om endret utbytte og mindre utleie enn forventet.
Shangri-La i Hong Kong faltkraftig i løpet av måneden. Det samme gjorde indonesiske Bekasi – på
dårligere utsikter for utenlandske direkteinvesteringer. Den dårligere utviklingen for alle de nevnte
selskapene ble ytterligere forsterket av svake aksje og valutamarkeder.
• Vi solgte oss ut av British Land på grunn av prisingen. Selskapet handles til rundt 30 ganger
inntjeningen (før nedskrivninger), noe som betyr netto FFO yield på 3,6 prosent. Vi solgte oss også ut
av Ticon Industrial, som driver med industrieiendom i Thailand. Selskapets har en svak
forretningsmodell og selskapet har ikke klart å fylle på med nye leietagere når andre har flyttet ut.
• De 10 og 353 største postene utgjør respektive 41 prosent of 88 prosent av fondet. SKAGEN m2 var
ved utgangen av måneden 50 poster og 0,9 prosent i kontanter.
* Med mindre annet er oppgitt er alle avkastningstall for fondet i denne rapporten knyttet til klasse A, og etter fradrag for gebyrer.
2
Avkastning, august 2015
A
August
SKAGEN m2 A
MSCI ACWI Real Estate
Relativ avkastning
QTD
-4,0%
-3,1%
-0,9%
Note: Alle tall ut over 12 måneder er annualisert (geometrisk avkastning)
* Startdato: 31. oktober 2012
3
Hittil i år
0,5%
2,3%
-1,8%
Siden start*
0,4%
5,9%
-5,5%
14,0%
20,7%
-6,8%
Markedsutvikling i august i NOK (%)
Tyskland
Frankrike
Japan
Sør-Afrika
UK
MSCI Eiendomsindeks
Thailand
USA
SKAGEN M2
Canada
Verdensindeksen
Australia
Philippinene
Vekstmarksindeksen
Norge
Singapore
Tyrkia
Kina (Hong Kong)
Kina (lokal)
India
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Brasil
4
6
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-5
-6
-7
-7
-8
-8
-10
-10
-10
-11
-11
-16
Markedsutvikling hittil i år i NOK (%)
21
UK
18
Tyskland
15
Philippinene
13
Japan
12
Frankrike
10
Kina (Hong Kong)
9
Sør-Afrika
8
Verdensindeksen
6
MSCI Eiendomsindeks
5
Australia
4
USA
3
Norge
SKAGEN M2
0
Kina (lokal)
0
-1
Hong Kong
-2
Singapore
-3
Vekstmarksindeksen
-4
Canada
-8
Thailand
Indonesia
India
Tyrkia
5
-13
-14
-14
Største bidragsytere i august 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK (000)
Selskap
NOK (000)
Deutsche Wohnen
2 884
##### SOHO China
-11 069
Ashford Inc
2 482
##### Shangri-La Asia
-5 180
Grivalia Properties
2 014
##### Columbia Property Trust
-3 872
CA Immobilien Anlagen
1 373
##### Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate
-3 728
Dic Asset
1 174
##### Ashford Hospitality Trust
-3 193
Axia Real Estate
783
##### Brandywine Realty Trust
-2 882
HCP Inc
662
##### BR Properties
-2 827
British Land
611
##### Vista Land & Lifescapes
-2 327
Melia Hotels
566
##### First Real Estate Investment Trust
-2 192
Atrium Ljungberg
492
##### SM Prime Holdings
-2 180
Total verdiskapning i august 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning
6
NOK -47 millioner
Største bidragsytere hittil i 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
Største negative bidragsytere
NOK (000)
Selskap
NOK (000)
Melia Hotels International
10 891
# Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate
-15 281
Deutsche Wohnen AG
7 449
# SOHO China Ltd
-11 594
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd
7 245
# BR Malls Participacoes SA
-7 110
British Land Co PLC
6 239
# Ashford Hospitality Trust Inc
-6 140
Westgrund AG
5 460
# Brandywine Realty Trust
-5 902
SM Prime Holdings Inc
4 586
# CBL & Associates Properties Inc
-5 232
Apartment Investment & Managem
4 081
# Shangri-La Asia Ltd
-5 059
Mercialys SA
3 856
# Ticon Industrial Connection PC
-4 390
Olav Thon Eindom A/S
3 520
# Emlak
-4 040
Dic Asset AG
2 773
# General Shopping Brasil SA
-4 026
Total verdiskapning hittil i 2015:
Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning
7
NOK -9 millioner
Største bidragsytere i august 2015
Største positive bidragsytere
Selskap
NOK (000)
Solid første halvår
Deutsche Wohnen
2 884
Ashford Inc
2 482
Ingen spesifikke nyheter
Grivalia Properties
2 014
Selskapet fortsetter å kjøpe tilbake aksjer
CA Immobilien Anlagen
1 373
Sterke resultater og økte utbytter
Dic Asset
1 174
Resultat bekreftet at selskapet levere i henhold til plan
Axia Real Estate SOCIMI
783
Spania er i bedring
HCP Inc
662
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
British Land
611
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Melia Hotels International
566
Atrium Ljungberg
492
Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning
8
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Største bidragsytere i august 2015
Største negative bidragsytere
Selskap
NOK (000)
Endret utbytte og mindre utleie enn forventet
SOHO China
-11 069
Shangri-La Asia
-5 180
Columbia Property Trust
-3 872
Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate
-3 728
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Ashford Hospitality Trust
-3 193
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Brandywine Realty Trust
-2 882
BR Properties
-2 827
Vista Land & Lifescapes
-2 327
First Real Estate Investment Trust
-2 192
SM Prime Holdings
-2 180
Note: Bidrag til absolutt avkastning
9
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Solgte aktiva på bunnen av syklusen
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Ingen selskapsspesifikke nyheter
Viktigste endringer hittil i 2015
Økte poster
Reduserte poster
Q1
Q1
Q2
Q3
Shangri-La Asia
HCP
Ashford Hospitality Trust
SOHO China
Mitsui Fudosan
Global Logistic Properties
Olav Thon
(Ny)
Axia Real Estate
Keck Seng Investments
Grivalia Properties
Olav Thon
CBL Properties
Deutsche Wohnen
(Ny)
(Ny)
(Ny)
ADLER Real Estate AG
(acquired Wesground)
Ashford Hospitality Prime (Spinn
off from Ashford Trust)
IRSA
Global Logistic Properties
CBL Properties
Capitaland
Columbia Property Trust
Mitsui Fudosan
Dic Asset
10
Q2
(Ny)
Q3
(Ny)
Keppel Land
Lexington Realty Trust
Unibail-Rodamco
Citycon
CSI Properties
(Ut)
(Ut)
Shimao Property
China South City
Citycon
Hovnanian
CSI Properties
Melia Hotels International
Ticon Industrial
Mapletree Logistics Trust
BR Malls
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
(Ut)
British Land
(Ut)
Westgrund AG (acquired by Adler)
(Ut)
Mapletree Logistics Trust
Affine
Ticon Industrial
(Ut)
PS Business Parks Inc
Apartment Investment & Man
Deutsche Wohnen
Brandywine Realty Trust
PS Business Parks
CA Immobillien
General Growth
Største kjøp og salg, august 2015
Kjøp
IRSA
•
Økt litt på etter salg av andre vekstmarkedsselskaper
Global Logistic Properties
•
Økt posisjon etter korreksjon
Salg
British Land
•
Solgt på grunn av prising
Affine
•
Svak utvikling. Overheng fra konvertible obligasjon.
Mapletree Logistic Trust
•
Redusert litt
Ticon Industrial
•
Solgt på grunn av forretningsmodell
11
Største poster i SKAGEN m2 pr. 31. august 2015
Holding size
P/NAV last
Div. Yield
2015e
EBITDA 2015e/EV
HCP Inc
4,8%
37,5
114%
6,3%
6.4%
Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd
4,6%
3360
105%
0,8%
5,0%
Global Logistic Properties Ltd
4,5%
2,22
90%
2,7%
4,8%
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA
4,5%
146
80%
1,1%
7.0%
Columbia Property Trust Inc
4,4%
21,77
70%
5,5%
6,6%
General Growth Properties Inc
4,2%
25,94
90%
2,8%
5,7%
Ashford Hospitality Trust
3,8%
7,81
70%
6,1%
9,4%
SL Green Realty Corp
3,6%
105,86
95%
2.3%
4,9%
CBL & Associates Properties Inc
3,3%
15,13
65%
7.0%
8,9%
Brandywine Realty Trust
3,3%
12,35
75%
4,9%
7,6%
87%
3.8%
6.5%
3.4%
6.7%
Weighted top 10
40.9%
Weighted top 35
88%
Benchmark
12
Price
3.5%actual
Geografisk fordeling vs. referanseindeksen august 2015 (%)
54
Fond
Indeks
35
20
18
17
13
12
7
6
3
0
Asia DM
13
Asia EM
Europe
Europe
DM ekskl.
EM
Norden
5
3
2
0
Frontier
Markets
1
2
0
Latin
Midtøsten
Nord
Amerika og Afrika Amerika
0
Oceania
1
1
0
Norden Kontanter
Nyheter og annet om porteføljeselskaper
– på engelsk
Key earnings releases and corporate news
Mitsui Fudosan,
Japan (4,6%)
Deutsche Wohnen,
Germany (3,0%)
SOHO, China
(2,4%)
15
In the sweet spot of RE recovery, strong 1Q FY3/16 numbers
Implications for the investment case: Positive. Our Japanese integrated RE company Mitsui Fudosan is currently taking advantage of
the good conditions in the present RE markets in Japan. Company´s diversified and flexible business model supports the strong
growth and result. The segments; investment properties, trading and management currently allows Mitsui to benefit from the strength
in both leasing markets and asset revaluations. NAV will continue to grow by continuous strong leasing business, new leasing cash
flow from new completed buildings. Company will likely beat FY guidance on the back of strong pre sales and leasing numbers, we
would not be surprised to see a hike in guidance within 6 months.
1H15 Strong NAV development, increased guidance for FY15 implies strong rental growth
Implications for the investment case: Positive. Our German residential holding, increased guidance for 2015, which implies strong 3%
L-f-L (like-for-like) rental growth for 2015. DW’s capital value growth clearly reflected its urban exposure (DW reported 9.2% capital
value growth for Berlin region where yield have compressed by 50bps to 5.7%). With transaction yields in Berlin between 4% and 5%,
there is likely more capital value growth in the cards. Management continues to seek acquisitions, with capacity to acquire of EUR 1bn
without additional equity, but sees a lot of pricing as too demanding (proven by the failed bid of Conwert), we like this cautious stance.
Good chance to beat company guidance this year.
1H15 Announced negative change in dividend policy
Implications for the investment case: Negative news amplified by overall Chinese stock market turmoil. The Beijing and Shanghai
focused commercial operator SOHO reported sharp earnings fall due to the transition from developer to landlord, however this was no
big surprise since it has been communicated a long time. What was negative and unexpected was the change in the stable dividend
policy (future dividend will be based on its net profit) implemented in 2011, a fixed level during the transition period. Occupancy is on
its way in new built facilities which is positive driving up margins (higher on leases than development) but leasing development is to
slow and hurts the cash flow, hence make it hard to sustain dividend over time. Company has already covered coming (to 2018)
construction capex to end of development which mitigates the risk. Pressure on leasing levels and increased vacancy on economic
downturn if risks that has to be monitored. Positive was new co-working platform that is expanding fast, could be interesting over time.
Company is now trading at deep discount on net asset level. Assets are very well located and of high quality.
Key earnings releases and corporate news
General Growth
Properties (3.9 %)
-
The company: US prime Mall owner
Results in line, refinanced debt at significantly lower interest level, strong cash generation.
Melia Hotels, Spain
(1.9%)
-
The company: Spanish hotel owner and operator company with global presence
Results clearly above, NAV increased significantly, strong Spanish urban results. Significant
discount.
-
The company: US residential owner, turnaround story since the financial crisis.
Results in line or slightly above, healthy performance and confirm the transition process coming to an end.
-
Apartment
Investment
Company (3.2%)
Colombia Property
Trust (4.2%)
-
The company: US office owner, transition from private to public and external to internal management tranforms its
portfolio from sub to CBD.
Results in line, trading at a significant discount > 20 %, continues its transformation process.
CBL Properties
(2.9%)
-
The company: B/C mall owner, most hated company with higher debt level than peers
Results in line, trading at a significant discount > 20 %, initiate $200m buybacks
-
The comapny: Office, CBD Paris, increasing its focus to pure office.
Results slightly above, increased guidance, a lot of investments, will sell more assets in 2h
Gecina (1.4%)
16
Key earnings releases and corporate news
PS Business Parks
(3.4%)
-
-
The company: Buy distressed assets to turnaround with the strongest balance sheet in US, nearly all capital
permanent (equity or preferred)
Results: clearly above expectations, sees hardly any distressed assets to buy, forced to increase dividend due
to increased income, consider use of capital including buybacks
Entra (0.9%)
-
The company: Norwegian office, mainly public or public owned tenants
Results: clearly above expectations, NAV increased significantly, strong Spanish urban results. Significant
discount.
Brandywine (3.4%)
-
The company: Sub US office owner in some main gateways.
Resuts: in line, trading at a significant discount, initiate buybacks
British Land (2.7%)
-
The company: London focused retail and office, owner and developer.
Results: in line.
17
The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of August 15
General Growth Properties (GGP), founded in 1954, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages
and develops shopping centers. The company is the second largest mall operator in the world. The company holds
interests in 120 malls, 7 office properties and 6 other properties , generating an average of USD 564 in tenant sales per
square foot (malls).
Brandywine Realty Trust is a self-administered, self-managed and fully integrated real estate investment trust. The
Company is engaged in the ownership, management, leasing, acquisition, and development of primarily suburban office
properties. It also owns an interest in and operates a commercial real estate management services company.
209 buildings of total 24.1m sqf (2.1m m2). 182 office, 19 industrial and 5 mixed use in addition to 4 redevelopment /
use properties. They are also part of 19 unconsolidated JVs.
Established in 1941, Mitsui Fudosan has been an active leader in the Japanese RE industry, successfully developing
new business opportunities and establishing an dominant position. The company is an integrated RE firm involved in
office leasing, commercial facilities, condominium development, investment property development and REITS. 8% of
MF´s assets are located on other continents. Strong balance sheet after capitalization (first in 23 years) in summer 2014.
Good integrated and balanced growth model with development and investment properties diversified among different RE
sub segments. Management business (car park leasing, property management) provides stable earnings growth over
time, in addition to other recurring earnings from commercial assets, to balance the volatility in the development segment.
HCP is a fully integrated self- administered real estate investment trust that acquires, manages, and invests in health
care (largest sector of the U.S. economy in rel. to GDP) real estate located in the US and Mexico. HCP is well diversified
across healthcare property types: senior housing (35% of NOI), skilled-nursing facilities (31%), medical office (13%), life
science/labs (15%), and hospitals (6%). HCP has USD 22 bn in AUM, a well balanced portfolio of 1163 properties.
Company has generated ~16% compound annual return since IPO 1985, and have 29 years of consecutive dividend
growth.
Ashford Hospitality Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing opportunistically in the hospitality
industry across all segments and at all levels of the capital structure primarily within the United States. Invests
opportunistically in the whole capital structure including lending to other hotel owners.
Ashford Hospitality Trust owns 115 hotels (directly and in JV with Prudential).
18
The largest companies in SKAGEN m2 as of August 15 (cont.)
GLP is Asia's largest provider of modern logistics facilities. The company owns, manages and leases over 700 completed
properties spread across 77 cities in China, Japan, Brazil and US forming an efficient network with assets strategically
located in key hubs, industrial zones and urban distribution centers. The USD 27bn property portfolio comprises of 28
million sqm serving more than 800 customers. The Japan portfolio is mostly completed and stabilized providing strong
operating cash flow to fund the group's growing business in China. The company also set up a China fund at the end of
2013 to enable recycling in the Chinese market in line with the Japanese model. This business model leads to a more
effective capital structure, recurring income and capital recycling (listing of J-REIT & CLF fund)
SL Green Realty Corp. is a fully integrated, self-administered and self-managed REIT. The company is focused on
owning and operating office buildings in Manhattan. It owns equity or debt in 92 properties totaling 41.6 m SF, of which it
owns equity (~82 %) in 29m SF and the rest is collateral for debt investments. SL Green provides debt financing, in many
cases to achieve properties. In addition to Manhattan, they also have interest in suburban areas to Manhattan. (5.3 m
SF) Manhattan occ. Of 95.9 % compared to 83.5 % (1q15) in suburban areas.
Olav Thon owns a portfolio of 65 shopping malls and manage in addition 27 malls for external owners. In addition the
company owns office buildings, restaurants and hotels (2; NOT Thon Hotels) located primarily in the Oslo area. 76 % of
income from malls; 24 % from commercial real estate, mainly office/retail. Listed on Oslo Børs in 1983. Gross (inclusive
JV) lettable space: Shopping malls: 1.0’’m2 and commercial estate 263’m2. Diversified into Sweden in 3q14 after buying
5 shopping malls of 122’m2 for NOK3b.
CBL, founded in 1978 and listed in 1992, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, leases, manages, and
develops shopping centers. The company held interests in 147 building, including 89 malls plus 30 adjacent
associated center, four outlet centers, 10 community centers and 12 office buildings, generating an average of $360 in
tenant sales per square foot (malls).
Columbia Property Trust, Inc. focuses on the acquisition, development, ownership, leasing, and operation of office
properties. Own 59 office buildings, total 16.5m sqf (1.6m m2) valued at $5.1b. The company was listed without any equity
issue in oct.13 to provide liquidity for shareholders. Bought back shares during 4q after listing. Core focus is 16 main cities
throughout US. 50 % CBD and 50 suburban exposure. Occupancy 92 % Financial, 91 % physical. From external managed
to internal management.
19
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Informasjon om SKAGEN m2 på våre hjemmesider
Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Framtidig avkastning vil blant annet avhenge av
markedsutviklingen, forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved tegning og forvaltning. Avkastningen
kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap.
SKAGEN søker etter beste evne å sikre at all informasjon gitt i denne rapporten er korrekt, men tar forbehold for
eventuelle feil og utelatelser. Uttalelsene i rapporten reflekterer porteføljeforvalternes syn på gitt tidspunkt, og
dette synet kan bli endret uten varsel. Rapporten skal ikke forstås som et tilbud eller en anbefaling om kjøp eller
salg av finansielle instrumenter. SKAGEN påtar seg intet ansvar for direkte eller indirekte tap eller utgifter som
skyldes bruk eller forståelse av rapporten. Ansatte i SKAGEN AS kan være eiere av verdipapirer utstedt av
selskaper som er omtalt enten i denne rapporten eller inngår i fondets portefølje.