Politics of Same Sex Marriage: Overview

Politics of Same Sex Marriage: Overview
Gary M. Segura
PS: Political Science and Politics April 2005; 38, 2.
Same Sex Marriage and 2004 Election
Did Kerry Lose Because of Same Sex Amendments?
Bush was reelected and 11 states passed amendments banning same sex marriage.
Analysis
Greg Lewis:
Same sex marriage may have had an influence, but it was less than most
observers claimed.
Sunshine Hillygus and Todd Sheilds:
Same sex marriage “played no role among independents in battleground
states, and even in states where the issue was on the ballot.”
…
Overview
Concepts Reviewed:
1. Research Questions
2. Hypothesis Design (Independent and Dependent Variables)
3. Falsification
4. Selection Bias
5. Correlational Research Designs
6. Polling Wording
…
“Same Sex Marriage and the 2004 Presidential Election”
Gregory Lewis
PS: Political Science and Politics April 2005; 38, 2.
Lewis: 2004 Election and Same Sex Marriage
Research Questions:
Question: Did Gay Marriage and moral issues bring Bush’s base out?
Question: What role did incumbency, terrorism and “character” have in
the election outcome?
…
Findings: Effect of Gay Marriage
Research Design:
Effect of Gay Marriage:
To analyze effect of Gay Marriage at state and individual level, Lewis
controlled for other issues likely to have effected voters since 2000 (911,
terrorism, Iraq, changes in the economy).
At the individual level, he also controlled for party affiliation, ideology (his
data source was a March 2004 LA Times Poll).
Findings: Effect of Gay Marriage
Findings:
1. Evangelicals and voters in states with a Gay Marriage ban did not
disproportionately increase their numbers or their preference for Bush.
2. Other issues matter more, but attitudes toward same sex marriage had a
statistically significant and meaningful impact on both individual voters
and state vote totals.
3. Civil Union supporters voted more like Civil Union Opponents than
Marriage supporters, once these other variables are accounted for.
Hence, support for Gay Marriage was not a deciding factor in voter
behavior.
…
Individual Level Analysis
In 2004, the issue of Gay Marriage mattered less than some issues but more
than most.
The election largely replayed an election where gay rights, especially samesex marriage played little role.”
Other Issues: Also Important
The War (Iraq), the economy and terrorism all had larger impacts on voter
choices.
Correlational Models
Hypothetical 1: Same Sex Marriage
Rep, white women, middle-income, supports SSM (IV), lives in the north → %
supported Bush (DV)?
Rep, white women, middle-income, opposes SSM (IV), lives in the north → %
supported Bush (DV)?
Controlling For: Party, Race, Gender, Class and Region
Testing: Effects of Same Sex Marriage
Correlational Models
Hypothetical 2: Iraq
Rep, white women, middle-income, opposes Iraq war (IV), lives in the north
→ % supported Bush (DV)?
Rep, white women, middle-income, supports Iraq war (DV), lives in the north
→ % supported Bush (DV)?
Controlling For: Party, Race, Gender, Class and Region
Testing: Effects of Iraq War
Correlational Models
Hypothetical 3: Party Affiliation
Rep (IV), white women, middle-income, opposes SSM, lives in the south → %
supported Bush (DV)?
Dem (IV), white women, middle-income, opposes SSM, lives in the south → %
supported Bush (DV)?
Controlling For: Race, Gender, Class and Region
Testing: Effects of Party Affiliation
“Moral Issues and Voter Decision Making in the
2004 Presidential Election”
D. Sunshine Hillygus and Todd Shields
PS: Political Science and Politics April 2005; 38, 2.
Bush Wins, and Republicans Gain in Congress
Bush victory, and Republicans gains in Congress led many journalists and
pundits it attribute to “values voters” after exist polls recorded voters
citing
“moral values” and the success of a push to ban gay marriage in 11 states.
“It seemed that the president rode to victory on a wave of values voters
who…”
…
SSM, Abortion and Values in the 2004 Election
How significant were “values” issues (SSM, abortion) on “individual voter
choice” in the 2004 Election in relation to other issues: partisanship,
economy, Iraq.
Findings:
Using a national post-election poll, authors found that SSM was not the most
important issue. It was not the most important predictor of vote choice. It
had no effect on Independents, respondents in battleground states, or
even those with bans on SSM.
…
Exit Polls and Bans on SSM
Observers inflated the importance of “moral values”
(See table 1).
Exit Poll
One poll found “moral values” to be the most important issue for largest
number of respondents, 80% whom voted for Bush.
Bans on SSM:
11 states passed them, and they passed by wide margins (between 57 and
86%), even in so-called blue states like Oregon.
Criticisms
Problems with prevailing interpretations of the role of SSM and the 2004
election:
1) Wording of the poll:
2) “Moral Values” is poorly defined
3) % supporting MV (22%) is not significantly higher than the number
that ranked the econ (20%), terrorism (19%) or Iraq (15%) as the most
significant.
4) Is MV related to SSM?: 59% voted on the same poll supported Civil
Unions.
…
What did Motivate Voters?
If not SSM, what did shape Voter Behavior?
More than any particular, or single issue (including abortion) what shaped or
determined voter choice was partisanship.
In 2004, voters very loyal to their parties, regardless of their policy positions.
Even when they disagreed with their parties candidate they voted for
them.
…
Partisanship (Party Affiliation) and the 2004 Election
Review: Levels of Analysis
Theory: SSM (Concept 1) and 2004 Election (Concept 2).
Hypothesis: State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV) in 2004.
Falsification: Only look at one election (2004) and one candidate (Bush).
We do not attempt to make claims about how SSM may have effected
multiple candidates or multiple elections.
Operational Definitions:
IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot (Sec of
State).
DV: (Bush Reelection): Bush Won/Increase Repub. Voting % by state
(Exit Polls/Sec of State).
Review: Levels of Analysis
Hypothesis: State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV).
Operational Definitions:
IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot (Sec of
State).
DV: (Bush Reelection): Bush Won/Increase Repub. Voting % in state
(Exit Polls/Sec of State)
Selection Bias: Variation on DV
DV: (Bush Win): Increase Rep. Voting % in state
DV: (Bush Loss): Decrease Rep. Voting % in state
You cannot limit your analysis only to states where there was a ban on
SSM and where Bush won (or the Rep % increased) . You need consider the
possibility that there where state where SMM passed and Bush lost or
where the percentage of Republican voters did not increase.
Essay Outlines
Introduction:
Topic: SSM and 2004 Election
Question: How did State bans on SSM impact 2004 presidential election?
Thesis: Bans on SSM helped Bush win reelection in several key states
Hypothesis: In states where bans on SSM (IV) were passed, Bush was
reelection (there was an increase in Rep Voting %) (DV).
Literature Review: What have other said about the topic?
Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions):
How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument:
IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot
DV: (Bush Win): Increase in Rep. Voting % in state
DV: (Bush Loss): Decrease in Rep. Voting % in state
STOP
STOP
Essay Outlines
Introduction:
Topic: SSM and 2004 Election
Question: How did State bans on SSM impact the Bush’s reelection?
Thesis: (Hypothesis): State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV).
Literature Review: What have other said about the topic?
Argument/Analysis: (Operational Definitions):
How do you plan to test/demonstrate your argument:
IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot
DV: (Bush Win): Rep. Voting % in state
DV: (Bush Loss): Rep. Voting % in state
Extra: Evolving Message
Opposition to Same Sex Marriage
Opposition to Same Sex Marriage initially centered on two assertions:
1) Homosexuality is Morally Inferior
2) Homosexual unions, being non-procreative are inferior
Frederick Liu and Stephen Macedo
The opposition has shifted to second claim and away from “overt hostility to
gays.” Now the focus is on the “discussion of children and preservation of
marriage.”
…
Extra: Marriage and Procreation
Critique of Non-Procreative Marriage:
The argument is that same sex marriage will undermine heterosexual unions
by decoupling marriage from procreation.
This claim has two parts:
1) Natural law theorists argue that family is the central unit in society and
that marriage is thus linked to procreation.
2) Removing children from marriage will undo marriages. It will weaken
heterosexual adults interest in the institution.
Extra: Levels of Analysis
Theory: SSM and 2004 Election
Hypothesis: State bans on SSM (IV) aided Bush’s reelection (DV). Rep
voters are more likely turnout where SSM ban was on the ballot.
Operational Definitions:
IV: (SSM): States with SSM bans on the ballot (Sec of
State)
DV: (Bush Reelection): Voter support for Bush (polls/
surveys)
Selection Bias: Variation on DV
DV: (Bush Win): Voter support for Bush (polls)
DV: (Bush Loss): Voter support for Bush (polls)