Connectivity-LTB

Transcription

Connectivity-LTB
Connectivity
+ Lifting-The-Barriers Report
Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
About CARI
The CIMB ASEAN Research Institute (CARI) was
established in 2011 as a member of CIMB Group.
CARI prides itself on being the first independent,
transnational research institute dedicated solely
to the advancement and acceleration of the
ASEAN integration agenda. CARI was designed
to pursue research and to promote thought
leadership in support of an integrated ASEAN
Community. CARI seeks pragmatic solutions and
policy recommendations to address challenges
in ASEAN integration and connectivity. CARI’s
headquarters is located in Kuala Lumpur but the
institute has a regional presence.
About ASEAN Business Club
A fully private sector driven initiative of ASEAN’s
leading businesses coming together to support
economic integration while providing a platform
for networking. The ABC creates an avenue
for ASEAN’s businesses to engage with global
regional leaders. The club’s vision is ASEAN: Open
for Business.
About Bain & Company
Bain & Company is the management consulting
firm that the world’s business leaders come to
when they want results. Founded in 1973, Bain has
5,400 employees across 50 offices, and its deep
expertise and client roster cross every industry
and economic sector. Bain advises clients on
strategy, operations, technology, organization,
private equity and mergers and acquisition,
developing practical insights that clients act on
and transferring skills that make change stick.
Bain has worked with over 4,900 companies,
including more than two-thirds of the Global 500.
We have consulted on half of the largest global
private equity deals in the last decade.
Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
FOREWORD
The Lifting-The-Barriers (LTB) Initiative was designed, in conjunction with the Network
ASEAN Forum (NAF) 2013, with the theme ‘A Strategy for ASEAN’. The overall objective
was to conduct sector based research with the purpose of identifying bottlenecks and
barriers to trade in six targeted sectors within ASEAN member nations and to help realise
the goal of the ASEAN Economic Community 2015.
The LTB Initiative has three phases, Phase I, II and III, each playing a unique role in helping
achieving the wider objective.
Phase I:
Phase I of NAF involves core research and seeks to identify the existing barriers in
each sector to assist understanding of the challenges faced by the industry due to AEC
obligations as well as making recommendations to mitigate these barriers to free trade.
Phase II:
Phase II was convened around six sector-based “Lifting-The-Barriers Roundtables” at the
NAF with vertical emphasis on issues specific to the selected sectors. The roundtables
serve as a platform for different stakeholders to deliberate on the future of their sector
and our ASEAN region as a whole.
Phase III:
Phase III consists of the final outcome, the Lifting-The-Barriers (LTB) Report, as a white
paper delivered to the relevant regulatory bodies to effect real changes and accelerate
ASEAN integration efforts. This will be the consolidated materials from Phase I and Phase
II.
This publication is the final Phase III LTB Report. The objective of which is to summarise
the state of the sector within the ASEAN landscape as well as to summarise the ideas
discussed during Phase II. These key takeaways will form basis of recommendations
towards the wider goals of Lifting-The-Barriers to trade in the context of the ASEAN
Economic Community 2015.
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Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
Acknowledgements
The CIMB ASEAN Research Institute (CARI) would first like to thank the esteemed
Research Partner for the Connectivity Sector, Bain & Company. As part of this research
collaboration, the research partner has been instrumental in the execution of the wider
LTB Initiative from its inception. Bain & Company has provided the technical and research
expertise throughout the entire process.
We would like to give special thanks to the Bain & Company team of Till Vestring, Kevin
Meehan and Florian Hoppe who were the core team in this collaboration.
We are also grateful to the Chair and Co-chair organisations who championed the
Connectivity Roundtable at the Network ASEAN Forum 2013. Alexander Rusli (Indosat)
and Ernest Cu (Globe Telecom) were influential in leading the discussion at the
Roundtable as well as providing direction for the overall LTB Initiative.
We appreciate the valuable insights and contributions of all Network ASEAN Forum 2013
Roundtable participants.
Acknowledgement also goes to the CARI team, namely Sóley Ómarsdóttir, Bernard
Law, Christina Chin and Gokul Radhakrishnan who have contributed to the editorial and
creative production of this report.
CARI would finally like to recognise the ASEAN Business Club Advisory Council for their
leadership, guidance and undivided support in making this project possible.
Jukhee Hong
Director of Operations, CARI
Project Supervisor
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Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
TABLE OF Contents
1.The ASEAN connectivity market
2
1.1Mobile
2
1.2Fixed
5
2.
Recommendations for connectivity policies in ASEAN
7
2.1Intra-ASEAN roaming and IDD
7
2.2
Mobile advertising
9
2.3
Mobile payments
11
2.4
Competitive intensity
13
3.
Final Remarks
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1.The ASEAN connectivity market
ASEAN as a region is characterised by the diversity of its membership countries, with
wide ranging levels of economic development and degrees of cultural influences, but
deeply interconnected at the core.
Connectivity and telecommunications play a critical role in bridging this diversity, driving
levels of connectedness across nations and further uplifting ASEAN economies as a key
economic enabler.
1.1
Mobile
The mobile segment (voice and data) is the major contributor to the ASEAN connectivity
market. Mobile revenue represents more than two thirds of the revenue pools in all
markets except Singapore, where only ~50% of revenue is from mobile. In total, the
ASEAN mobile market generated ~US$12B in Q1 2013 alone, with positive growth
momentum over the last three years (from 2.5% to 12.1% depending on country).
Exhibit 1
Mobile: The Southeast Asian Mobile market is worth ~US$12B in 2013 Q1
US$
US$
US$
Notes: Includes mobile telecommunications
Source: Wireless Intelligence
In the last three years, revenue growth has been driven by the increase in mobile
penetration rates, which have now reached above 100% in all member countries.
Conversely, the average revenue per user (ARPU) has declined in all countries except
Thailand, where it has remained flat.
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Exhibit 2
Mobile: Revenue growth led by an increase in market penetration while ARPU has
declined across all markets
Note: Includes mobile telecommunications
Source: Wireless Intelligence
A few key drivers have contributed to the ARPU trends:
1. Many of the additional connections are due to new users in rural areas, with lower
disposable income
2. An increasing number of users are using more than one SIM, - either because of poor
coverage or to optimise spending - therefore fragmenting their total spend
3. Competition between operators has been fierce in all markets, most especially in the
prepaid space
4. Partially offsetting the above factors, penetration of mobile data has increased, which
translates into higher ARPU
Not surprisingly, the decline in ARPU has been steeper in markets with higher pre-paid
penetration, faster growth in connections to population ratio, and lower mobile data
usage (Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam).
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Exhibit 3
Mobile: With the exception of Singapore, all ASEAN markets have less than 25% postpaid
connections
Source: Wireless Intelligence
At the country level, the dynamics of the mobile market are very different due to
different stages of maturity. Singapore is the most mature market in the region
with a dominant post-paid component and ARPU approaching US$30/month, while
neighboring Indonesia is dominated by prepaid and has much lower ARPU, hovering
closer to US$3/month. Pre-paid is largely dominant (~75% or more in number of
connections) in all countries except Singapore, leading to high churn rates.
Most mobile markets in the region are highly concentrated, often with a dominant
incumbent and the top three players controlling more than 80% market share on
connections. Most players are centered on their domestic market, with only Axiata,
Singtel and Telenor playing in a variety of regional markets in ASEAN, predominantly
through minority shareholdings.
A recent critical phenomenon in ASEAN is a strong shift to data on mobile (with many
mobile-only/mobile-first internet users). This has happened on the back of strong 3G
rollouts by operators in most markets and rapidly declining prices for high-end feature
phones or low-end smartphones, meaning touchscreen devices can now be had for
average selling price (ASP) at US$75 or less.
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Exhibit 4
Mobile: In most ASEAN markets, consumers are moving towards heavier data usage on
smartphones
Note: Non-voice revenue includes data, messaging and VAS revenue
Source: Wireless Intelligence; IDC
With increasing mobile data availability, today’s mobile communication options have
gone beyond traditional phone calls and SMS to include Over-the-Top (OTT) services.
These new options include email, voice/video over IP (e.g. Skype), status updates (e.g.
Facebook, Twitter) and internet-based message services (e.g. Whatsapp, BBM, Line).
All these OTT services rely on data access only and benefit users due to the asymmetric
pricing for data vs. voice/SMS usage on mobile operator networks. So far, most of these
services have been provided by global MNCs with few ASEAN telcos having the relevant
scale to push locally controlled OTT services in the region successfully.
1.2
Fixed
Fixed voice line (PSTN) penetration is on a continuously declining trend across ASEAN,
driven by strong mobile adoption rates and, in many markets, limited legacy last-mile
infrastructure to residential homes.
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Exhibit 5
Fixed line: As a result of mobile access, fixed line subscriptions have declined across all
markets
Source: BMI
In contrast, broadband connection is expected to increase across the region albeit from
a very low base. Many governments in ASEAN have realised the need for advanced fibre
infrastructure to further create growth and drive a more knowledge-centric economy.
For example, Singapore has implemented the Next Generation National Infocomm
Infrastructure and Malaysia has started the National High-Speed Broadband (HSBB)
Project, both of which aim to support increasing data usage. Indonesia is also pushing
their National Broadband Network development for implementation until 2015. A further
push on advanced Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks across ASEAN is likely to
complement these efforts (with Singapore leading the charge on LTE rollouts).
Going forward, internet and data usage will continue to grow. However, many consumers
will prefer mobile to fixed line access, driven by improved efficiency of mobile
infrastructure.
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Exhibit 6
Internet: Internet usage expected to grow, however broadband access still low in most
countries
Note: Singapore includes multiple subscriptions per user (3G mobile connections, WiMax and wireless hotpots)
Source: BMI
2. Recommendations for connectivity policies in ASEAN
As we have seen, the ASEAN communication market has been developing well; ASEAN
citizens have been fast adopters of new technologies that improve their lifestyle.
However, there are several areas where further regulation could help to reduce
boundaries across ASEAN and drive further integration. For this study, three have
been prioritised: intra-ASEAN roaming and IDD, mobile advertising, mobile payments.
In parallel, ASEAN regulators will have to retain a keen view on competitive intensity –
managing price levels in markets while preserving local operators’ ability and scale to
invest in next generation technologies
2.1
Intra-ASEAN roaming and IDD
International roaming and international direct dialling (IDD) have become increasingly
relevant as ASEAN becomes ever more connected. An increasing number of pan-regional
business travellers and migrant workers create strong demand for these services.
However, relatively high roaming charges (both intra and extra ASEAN) and price
variability are currently inhibiting adoption. The segments which face the highest impact
are particularly lower/middle-income migrant workers within ASEAN. Intra-ASEAN rates
are still high compared to intra-European rates; among operators, regional companies
such as Singtel, Axiata, and Telenor have started offering pan-regional roaming plans
(e.g. daily “flat fee” data roaming charges with selected partner operators), but so far
most efforts have been targeted at higher end business travellers.
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Current charges are partially the result of a lack of holistic pricing regulation and the
absence of a common regulatory body that can drive any pricing initiatives.
In the EU, regulations have played a key role in managing roaming costs and making
markets more open to cross-border competition. Regulations were enforced in three
steps between 2007 and 2011 (initially capping wholesale/retail voice charges, later
followed by SMS charges and wholesale/retail data charges). While the regional push has
yielded significant benefits in reduced charges and consumer adoption, telco profits have
suffered significantly and the extent of the reduction is one factor blamed for the slow
adoption of 4G services across Europe.
In ASEAN, even though multiple bi-lateral initiatives are in place to reduce roaming costs
such as those between Brunei and Singapore or between Singapore and Malaysia, there
is not any comprehensive “common ground” at the ASEAN level yet. ATRC (ASEAN
Telecom Regulatory Council) has adopted an ‘Addendum ATRC Intra-ASEAN Mobile
Roaming Rates’ aimed at reducing roaming charges, but it has not been equally used in all
member countries.
Well-managed roaming rates are likely to have broad positive economic effects through
the improvement of ASEAN-wide communications, while at the same time lower charges
will not necessarily be detrimental to mobile operator profitability, due to demand
elasticity. Moreover, guidelines on roaming rates can create a more level playing field for
national-only carriers who are seeing increased competition from pan-regional players
with attractive regional roaming propositions on their linked operators.
Devising a new regional framework to address high roaming and IDD charges is crucial to
develop connectivity in the region, but entails a fine balance between multiple competing
forces:
•
first, consumers demand lower prices, as the need to travel and communicate across
borders increases. In this sense, legislative bodies around the world have come to see
the EU approach as a sort of blueprint to drive roaming costs down;
•
second, any pricing guidelines should allow telcos to earn a fair profit that they can
reinvest in new infrastructure. As a lesson from EU roaming price regulation, telcos
under excessive price pressure are slower to roll out newer technology platforms
(e.g. 4G). This is extremely critical in ASEAN given the currently lower penetration
of mobile data and strong expected growth, combined with the lack of wired
infrastructure, which will require significant infrastructure build-up in the near future;
•
finally, increasing competition from OTT services is another major factor impacting
the future of roaming. Exhibit 7 illustrates how OTT messaging services have very
quickly replaced SMS usage in ASEAN, and a similar dynamic is likely to take place
through substitution of voice roaming with OTT voice services. Getting ahead of this
trend could significantly benefit ASEAN mobile operators and retain profits in the
ASEAN region (vs. usually global OTT offers)
Taking future roaming rate evolution in a joint public/private dialogue across ASEAN
appears to be the best path forward to address the many competing interests — this will
enable continued improvements in connectivity across ASEAN and ultimately strengthen
ASEAN operators, if done right.
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Exhibit 7
OTT services in ASEAN markets are growing; likely a threat to SMS revenue
Note: Non-voice revenue include data, messaging & VAS; does not include all Telcos in each countries
Source: Wireless Intelligence; Gartner; Ovum; Informa
2.2
Mobile advertising
ASEAN as a region is seeing strong momentum in mobile advertising spending, due
to the increasing penetration of smartphones and current under-investment in mobile
advertising.
As seen in Exhibit 4 earlier, ownership of smartphones has reached 83% in Singapore,
30% in Malaysia, and has been growing strongly in all other countries, and this dynamic
is likely to continue, driven by the increase in disposable income and the availability of
more affordable smartphones at lower ASPs.
On the other hand, mobile advertising is still in the early stages in ASEAN. Out of the
total spending on internet advertising, only 7% is in mobile, whereas mobile already
accounts for ~18% of total internet traffic and this share is likely to increase because the
growth in broadband connections is slower than the growth in mobile data connections
(Exhibit 8).
This under-investment, combined with accelerating adoption of smartphones, points
to a sharp increase in mobile advertising in the next 5 years. Analysts expect mobile
advertising spending CAGR to be from ~20% up to ~40% until 2017.
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Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
Exhibit 8
Mobile advertising: Non-PC contributes 18% of SEA internet traffic; mobile ad only 7% of
internet ad spending
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media; PWC; Advertising Association of Thailand; ComScore
To further develop this advertising platform, several factors affecting advertisers, telcos,
OTT service providers, and consumers need to be considered:
•
advertisers will increasingly recognise the attractiveness of mobile advertising and
will increasingly gravitate towards this channel;
•
distributors of mobile advertising, i.e. OTT and telcos, will ramp up competition for
advertisement delivery. OTT providers have an advantage in content and smartphone
applications. However, telcos are in a unique position to collect relevant consumer
data necessary for highly targeted advertisements;
•
finally, consumers will likely have heightened attention to privacy protection and
lower tolerance for irrelevant (or inappropriate) advertising content.
With this in mind, regulators can play a pivotal role in encouraging and orchestrating this
market by focusing on three important initiatives:
1. Define minimum guidelines for consumer privacy across services/markets, notably
covering: right to access and delete personal data, sensitive information sharing, use
of data for advertising purposes, resale of data to third parties, security of consumer
data storage, and record keeping
2.Set up consumer-friendly opt-in/opt-out policies to address advertising concerns,
mirroring policies in developed markets
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Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
3. Create or designate national authorities to monitor behaviours and resolve potential
conflicts
2.3
Mobile payments
Mobile payments are an emerging trend with potential to create added value for
consumers, telco operators, the financial services sector and merchants across the region.
In ASEAN, a significant portion of the population is still not served by the formal financial
sector, as shown in Exhibit 9. While the share of banked population has been growing
only slightly in the past few years, the number of mobile subscribers has increased
sharply, creating an opportunity to serve via the mobile channel customers not reached
by traditional financial services (Exhibit 10).
Exhibit 9
A significant portion of the ASEAN population is still not served by the formal financial
sector
Notes: Banked population defined as percentage of the population 15 years and older that has a formal
relationship with a bank or other financial institution via a current savings account, checking account, credit
card or a combination of these products
Source: Euromonitor
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Exhibit 10
Rapid growth in mobile usage presents a unique channel to reach both banked and
unbanked segments
Example Indonesia - Mobile
penetration overtook banking
penetration since ‘06...
...Presenting an opportunity to
target both banked and unbanked
segments in innovative ways
“
With the Indonesia population at
approximately 250 million people, these
new mobile banking services will help us
attract new customers and expand our
market share significantly”
- Strategy & Finance Director
CIMB Niaga
“
In contrast [to the banking sector],
the Indonesian telco sector has been
extremely effective in moving down
market. ... Combining FS expert with
the broad market capabilities of the
mobile telco channel presents a unique
opportunity for gov’t and commercial
entities to develop new business
opportunities”
- Strategy & Finance Director
CIMB Niaga
Source: USAID, Sybase, Bain analysis
Opportunities in mobile money are along three categories of usage:
a)Transaction services like M-wallet which gives access to a stored value account,
mobile top-ups and mobile wallet-to-wallet transfers (P2P), enable traditional
payments (e.g. paying utility bills, remittances)
b) Mobile commerce services through new mobile payment technologies (e.g., QR
codes), mobile merchant payment technologies (e.g. mobile POS, P2P on the spot),
mobile shops / portal services (e.g. online shopping, online games, virtual products
etc.) and mobile marketing services (e.g. customer loyalty, mobile ads, coupons
offers etc.)
c) Mobile banking offerings like banking enquiries, accessing accounts, mobile loan
applications or disbursements, seeking insurance
Experience from credit cards and debit cards shows that scale adoption of new payment
channels can take up to about 20-30 years. In ASEAN, the current adoption of mobile
financial services is still in early stages, but most operators have launched initiatives in
this space.
A healthy ecosystem is the key to unlock the mobile payment opportunity. However, this
requires a flexible but clear regulatory framework that assigns roles to each player, and a
strong government commitment ensuring players can justify the investment needed:
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Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
•
Consumers can have a payment option that is secure, fully portable, and easy to use,
without the need to open a bank account. Unlike other forms of plastic money (credit/
debit cards), mobile payments can also be used for transactions between individuals
such as remittances from abroad, reimbursements to friends, payments for small
services, etc.
•
Telcos can unlock an additional revenue streams and leverage mobile payment
services to differentiate themselves in the market and increase customer loyalty; by
providing more added-value services, carriers can address the issue of high churn in
price-sensitive markets and move towards more value-based competition;
•
Financial services companies would benefit by expanding their reach to the
unbanked segment, creating a new revenue stream as intermediaries for mobile
payment services; moreover, conversion from cash to electronic money is likely to
drive familiarity and adoption of other products (e.g. credit/debit cards); financial
inclusiveness could grow significantly as a side-benefit
•
Merchants can expand their customer base, increase security of transactions, and
diminish risks associated to cash
Regulators can help foster the development of mobile payment services in ASEAN by:
1) providing a regulatory framework that clarifies roles, boundaries and pre-requisites
for telco operators, financial services companies, and merchants
2) managing and monitoring transaction fees, consumer privacy, forbidden uses and
applicable controls to protect customers, ensure broad participation, and prevent bad
behaviours such as fraud, money-laundering, illegal lending/gambling, etc.
3) selectively guiding which services/platforms should be open to different
technologies/standards (to create a level playing field, prevent customer lock-in, and
stay on top of technology evolution) vs. where a common standard is needed (to
ensure interoperability and stimulate investment)
2.4
Competitive intensity
Maintaining competition in ASEAN is crucial for a healthy development of the
connectivity market. Currently, markets in ASEAN are concentrated, with fierce
competition both among operators (notably in pre-paid) and between telco operators
and OTTs. However:
•
competition is primarily based on price (rather than value/quality of service), which,
in combination with deregulated interconnect charges and on-net/off-net price
differences, creates dysfunctional market behaviours, e.g. multi-SIM;
•
some remaining barriers to competition create unnecessary inefficiency in the market,
e.g. number portability is not fully applied within ASEAN countries, increasing the
hassle for professional users to switch between operators.
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A comprehensive look at competitive dynamics in the connectivity market should
encompass a few aspects.
14
•
Spectrum and licence allocation. Spectrum allocation in ASEAN countries is a key
regulatory activity and significantly impacts competition – the number of spectrum
blocks put up for auction, the number of players accepted and the price levels for
spectrum all impact market dynamics. A good example is the recent Malaysian
decision to award nine LTE licenses, which will lead to new mobile data challengers
in the market. Spectrum remains a key competitive asset for mobile operators, as it
is a key driver of network performance. Recent efforts have kicked off to harmonise
mobile broadband between Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and Malaysia which
are looking to run 4G services on airwaves that will be freed up when analog TV
broadcasts are switched off in the region by 2020. This ‘digital dividend’ will allow the
use of a common 700MHz frequency band in the region which could enable travelers
to easily roam with their smartphones in the future.
•
Interconnect rates. Regulators set a variety of interconnect rates (mobile-to-mobile,
mobile-to-fixed, SMS) to compensate telcos for using each other’s networks – this is
often a key lever to reduce the benefits of incumbency and enable competition. While
the fees paid differ across markets, a general trend to reduce interconnect charges
is emerging, with Thailand being the latest example, where AIS, DTAC and True Corp
have agreed to lower their fees supported by their regulator, NBTC.
•
Fibre roll-out. Next generation national broadband networks are a key priority for
most ASEAN countries and rollout paths differ significantly. Given the significant
costs in upgrading/building fibre networks (beyond the level where it is economically
attractive for telcos outside of high value geographies), varying forms of public/
private partnerships can be taken. Examples include Singapore, which opted for
structural separation and the government paying for the rollout (driving stronger
levels of retail competition), or Malaysia, which provided additional funding to
Telekom Malaysia, who in turn is offering wholesale access at regulated rates.
Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
3.Final Remarks
ASEAN has a healthy connectivity market with headroom for growth over the next few
years, but is facing similar transitions as developed markets. Regulators can definitely
play a role to further maintain a healthy competitive environment, stimulate growth and
deployment of new infrastructure and services, thereby enhancing connectivity and
integration across ASEAN and learning from the evolution in more advanced markets.
There are three specific areas where regulatory action can be most effective in the near
future.
1. Roaming rates are still a barrier to widespread cross-ASEAN connectivity. Carefully
managing roaming rates (and termination costs) would enable broader adoption
and integration of ASEAN connectivity markets, while ensuring attractive enough
operator profitability to drive further investments into next generation infrastructure.
2. Mobile advertising is a significant growth opportunity across ASEAN, but requires a
solid regulatory structure to ensure no future problems will arise (particularly around
privacy) and a healthy marketplace can develop.
3. While still at an early stage of development, mobile payment services have the
potential to address the needs of many consumers across ASEAN (particularly the
unbanked population). Regulators can foster deployment and adoption of these
services by defining guidelines on roles and responsibilities in the ecosystem.
Finally, maintaining healthy levels of competition is instrumental to connectivity growth.
Regulators will need to retain a keen eye on dynamics in their respective marketplace
and trends emerging across the region. Ensuring a strong future evolution for
connectivity across ASEAN should involve an open dialogue and cooperation among
regulators and private industries. NAF and similar platforms can offer a basis to collect
input for policy making and keeping a pulse on the state of the Asian connectivity
market.
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Lifting-the-barriers REPORT: CONNECTIVITY
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invented, including photocopying or recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without proper acknowledgement of CIMB ASEAN Research
Institute and Bain & Company.
The views, responsibility for facts and opinions in this publication rests exclusively
with the authors and their interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of
CIMB ASEAN Research Institute and Bain & Company.
First published:
November 2013
First print:
November 2013
Publisher:
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