Executive summary - EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050

Transcription

Review of potential radical future transport
technologies and concepts
David Wynn (AEA)
Nik Hill (AEA)
8th February 2010
Review of potential radical future transport
technologies and concepts
EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050?
Contract
David Wynn
(AEA) ENV.C.3/SER/2008/0053
Nikolas Hill (AEA)
Review of potential radical future transport technologies
and concepts. AEA/ED45405/Task
9 Report
VI - DRAFT
8 February
2010
Suggested citation: Wynn, D and Hill, N. (2010) Review of potential radical future transport technologies and concepts.
Task 9 Report VI produced as part of contract ENV.C.3/SER/2008/0053 between European Commission DirectorateGeneral Environment and AEA Technology plc; see website www.eutransportghg2050.eu
ii
Contract ENV.C.3/SER/2008/0053
and concepts. AEA/ED45405/Task 9 Report VI
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................. 1
1
2
3
Introduction ...................................................................................................... 2
1.1
Topic of this paper ............................................................................................................. 2
1.2
The contribution of transport to GHG emissions ............................................................... 2
1.3
Background to project and its objectives ........................................................................... 5
1.4
Background and purpose of the paper .............................................................................. 6
1.5
Structure of the paper ........................................................................................................ 6
Radical concepts and technologies for road vehicles .................................. 8
2.1
Electric trolley-buses and electric trolley-trucks................................................................. 8
2.2
In-Road electric vehicle charging infrastructures ............................................................. 10
2.3
Self-drive vehicles ............................................................................................................ 11
2.4
Dual mode transit ............................................................................................................. 14
2.4.1
Personal dual-mode transit .............................................................................................. 14
2.4.2
Mass dual-mode transit ................................................................................................... 15
2.5
Intelligent roads................................................................................................................ 16
2.6
Road trains....................................................................................................................... 18
2.7
Vehicle Mass Transit System (VMTS) ............................................................................. 19
2.8
Alternative fuels ............................................................................................................... 20
2.8.1
Dimethyl-Ether (DME) ...................................................................................................... 20
2.8.2
2,5-dimethylfuran (DMF) .................................................................................................. 21
2.8.3
Compressed air vehicles ................................................................................................. 22
Radical concepts and technologies for land-based non-road modes ....... 24
3.1
3.1.1
3.2
4
iii
Maglev ............................................................................................................................. 24
Underground Maglev Systems ........................................................................................ 26
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT).......................................................................................... 27
3.2.1
ULTra (Urban Light Transport) ........................................................................................ 27
3.2.2
Podcars ............................................................................................................................ 28
3.3
Hybrid tricycle .................................................................................................................. 29
3.4
Hoverboards .................................................................................................................... 30
Radical concepts and technologies for aviation ......................................... 32
4.1
Flying cars ........................................................................................................................ 32
4.2
Hybrid Airships ................................................................................................................. 33
4.3
Wing-In-Ground ............................................................................................................... 35
4.4
New aircraft configuration concepts ................................................................................ 36
4.4.1
Blended Wing Body ......................................................................................................... 36
4.4.2
Joined wing ...................................................................................................................... 37
4.4.3
5
Oblique flying wing ........................................................................................................... 38
4.5
Space travel ..................................................................................................................... 39
4.6
Personal Jetpacks & Rocket Helicopters ......................................................................... 40
4.7
Alternative fuels for aviation ............................................................................................. 41
Radical concepts and technologies for maritime and inland waterway
vessels .................................................................................................................... 42
6
7
5.1
Flettner rotors................................................................................................................... 42
5.2
Windmill ships .................................................................................................................. 43
5.3
Solar power ships ............................................................................................................ 44
5.4
Sails and Wind Assisted Towing ...................................................................................... 46
Radical concepts and technologies for replacing travel ............................ 49
6.1
Holographic presence ...................................................................................................... 49
6.2
Virtual tourism .................................................................................................................. 49
6.3
Teleportation .................................................................................................................... 50
Discussion of the possible implications of the for transport GHG
emissions ................................................................................................................ 51
7.1
Road transport technologies ............................................................................................ 52
7.2
Land-based non-road transport technologies .................................................................. 53
7.3
Aviation technologies ....................................................................................................... 54
7.4
Marine and inland waterway vessel technologies ........................................................... 56
7.5
Travel replacement technologies ..................................................................................... 57
8
Summary of Key Findings and Conclusions ............................................... 58
9
References for images ................................................................................... 60
iv
Executive Summary
TBC for final version of report
1
1
Introduction
1.1
Topic of this paper
This paper is one of a series of papers on GHG reduction options for transport drafted under the EU
Transport GHG: Routes to 2050? project. These papers review the options – technical and nontechnical – that could contribute to reducing transport‟s GHG emissions, both up to 2020 and in the
period from 2020 to 2050. This paper focuses on reviewing potential radical future transport
technologies. It will review radical concepts and technologies for road vehicles, land-based non road
modes, aviation, maritime and inland waterway vessels and radical concepts and technologies for
replacing travel. This paper will discuss the possible implications of these various concepts for
transport GHG emissions. The papers aim to provide a high-level summary of the evidence based on
existing studies.
This paper is currently in draft form and will be presented to a Technical Focus Group meeting (at
which stakeholders were present) in February 2010 after which it has been updated on the basis of
the discussion at the meeting and the comments and further evidence that were received.
1.2
The contribution of transport to GHG emissions
The EU-27‟s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport have been increasing and are projected
to continue to do so. The rate of growth of transport‟s GHG emissions has the potential to undermine
the EU‟s efforts to meet potential, long-term GHG emission reduction targets if no action is taken to
reduce these emissions. This is illustrated in Figure 1 (provided by the EEA), which shows the
potential reductions that would be required by the EU if economy-wide emissions reductions targets
for 2050 of either 60% or 80% (compared to 1990 levels) were agreed and if GHG emissions from
transport continued to increase at their recent rate of growth. The figure is simplistic in that it assumes
linear reductions and increases. However it shows that unless action is taken, by 2050 transport GHG
emissions alone would exceed an 80% reduction target for all sectors or make up the vast majority of
a 60% reduction target. This illustrates the scale of the challenge facing the transport sector given that
it is unlikely that GHG emissions from other sectors will be eliminated entirely.
1
Figure 1:
EU overall emissions trajectories against transport emissions (indexed)
120
Index (1990=100)
100 Total GHG emissions (EU-27)
80
60
-60 %
40
20
Transport emissions
Annual growth rate: +1.4 % / year
(avg. 2000-2005)
-80 %
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Source: European Environment Agency
1
Graph supplied by Peder Jensen, EEA
2
The extent of the recent growth in transport emissions is reinforced by Figure 2, which presents a
sectoral split of trends in CO2 emissions over recent years. Whilst the CO2 emissions from other
sectors have levelled out or have begun to decrease, transport‟s CO2 emissions have risen steadily
since 1990. It should be noted that whilst Figure 2 is presented in terms of CO2 emissions, very similar
trends are evident for GHG emissions (in terms of CO2 equivalent) since CO2 emissions represent
98% of transport‟s GHG emissions.
Figure 2:
Carbon dioxide emissions by sector EU-27 (indexed)2
CO2 Emissions * by Sector, EU-27
1990=1
1,40
1,40
1,30
1,30
1,20
1,20
1,10
1,10
1,00
1,00
0,90
0,90
0,80
1990
0,80
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Energy Industries
Industry
- Households
Other ****
Total
- Services, etc.
Transport
Notes:
i)
The figures include international bunker fuels (where relevant), but exclude land use, land use change and forestry.
ii) The figures for transport include bunker fuels (international traffic departing from the EU), pipeline activities and
ground activities in airports and ports
iii) “Other” emissions include solvent use, fugitive emissions, waste and agriculture.
The vast majority of European transport‟s GHG emissions are produced by road transport, as
illustrated in Figure 3, while international shipping and international aviation are other significant
contributors.
Recent trends in CO2 emissions from transport are also expected to continue, as can be seen from
Table 1 below. Between 2000 and 2050, the JRC (2008) estimates that GHG emissions from domestic
transport in the EU-27 will increase by 24%, during which time emissions from road transport are
projected to increase by 19% and those from domestic aviation by 45%. It is important to note that
these projections do not include emissions from international aviation and maritime transport, which
are also expected to increase due to the growth in world trade and tourism.
2
Graph based on figures in DG TREN (2008) EU energy and transport in figures 2007-2008: Statistical Pocketbook Luxembourg, Office for Official
Publications of the European Communities.
3
Figure 3:
Greenhouse gases emissions by transport mode (EU-27; 2005)3
Railways
1%
Civil aviation
2%
Other
1%
International
aviation
10%
Navigation
(domestic)
2%
International
navigation
13%
Road
71%
Note: The figures include international bunker fuels for aviation and navigation (domestic and international)
Table 1:
CO2 emissions projection for 2050 by end-users in the EU-27, in Millions tonnes of Carbon
4
Figures from the EEA (2008), illustrate the recent growth in GHG emissions from international
aviation, as they estimate that these increased in the EU by 90% (60 Mt CO2e) between 1990 and
2005; international aviation emissions will thus become an ever more significant contributor to
transport‟s GHG emissions if current trends continue. Furthermore, the IPCC has estimated that the
total impact of aviation on climate change is currently at least twice as high as that from CO 2 emissions
alone, notably due to aircrafts‟ emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x) and water vapour in their
condensation trails. However, it should be noted that there is significant scientific uncertainty with
regard to these estimates, and research is ongoing in this area.
3
Graph based on figures in EEA (2008) Climate for a transport change – TERM 2007: Indicators tracking transport and environment in the
European Union EEA Report 1/2008, Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
4
Taken from JRC (2008) Backcasting approach for sustainable mobility Luxembourg, EUR 23387/ISSN 1018-5593, Office for Official Publications
of the European Communities.
4
Figure 4:
Final transport energy consumption by liquid fuels in EU-27 (2005), ktoe
5
Motor spirit
Gas diesel oil
Other liquid biofuels
Biodiesel
Biogasoline
The principal source of transport‟s GHG emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels. Currently, petrol
(motor spirit), which is mainly used in road transport (e.g. in passenger cars and some light
commercial vehicles in some countries), and diesel, which is used by other modes (e.g. heavy duty
road vehicles, some railways, inland waterways and maritime vessels) in various forms, are the most
common fuels in the transport sector (see Figure 4). Additionally, liquid petroleum gas (LPG) supplies
6
around 2% of the fuels for the European passenger car fuel market (AEGPL, 2009 ), while the main
source of energy for railways in Europe is electricity, neither of which are included in Figure 4. While,
alternative fuels are anticipated to play a larger role in providing the transport sector‟s energy in the
future, currently they only contribute 1.1% of the sector‟s liquid fuel use.
1.3
Background to project and its objectives
The context of the EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050 is the Commission‟s long-term objective for
o
tackling climate change, which entails limiting global warming to 2 C and includes the definition of a
strategic target for 2050. The Commission‟s President Barosso recently underlined the importance of
the transport sector in this respect be noting that the next Commission “needs to maintain the
momentum towards a low carbon economy, and in particular towards decarbonising our electricity
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supply and the transport sector” . There are various recent policy measures that are aimed at
controlling emissions from the transport sector, but these measures are not part of a broad strategy or
overarching goal. Hence, the key objective of this project is to provide guidance and evidence on the
broader policy framework for controlling GHG emissions from the transport sector. Hence, the
project‟s objectives are defined as to:
-
5
Begin to consider the long-term transport policy framework in context of need to reduce
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy-wide.
Deal with medium- to longer-term (post 2020; to 2050), i.e. moving beyond recent focus on shortterm policy measures.
Identify what we know about reducing transport‟s GHG emissions; and what we do not.
Identify by when we need to take action and what this action should be.
Graph based on figures in DG TREN (2008), page 206
European LPG Association (2009) Autogas in Europe, The Sustainable Alternative: An LPG Industry Roadmap, AEGPL, Brussels. See
http://www.aegpl.eu/content/default.asp?PageID=78&DocID=994
7
http://ec.europa.eu/commission_barroso/president/pdf/press_20090903_EN.pdf
6
5
Given the timescales being considered, the project will take a qualitative and, where possible, a
quantitative approach. The project has three Parts, as follows:
Part I („Review of the available information‟) has collated the relevant evidence for options to
reduce transport‟s GHG emissions, which was presented in a series of Papers (1 to 5), and is in
the process of developing four policy papers (Papers 6 to 9) that outline the evidence for these
instruments to stimulate the application and up take of the options.
Part II („In depth assessment and creation of framework for policy making‟) involves bringing the
work of Part I together to develop a long-term policy framework for reducing transport‟s GHG
emissions.
Part III („Ongoing tasks‟) covers the stakeholder engagement and the development of additional
papers on subjects not covered elsewhere in the project.
As noted under Part III, stakeholder engagement is an important element of the project. The following
meetings were held:
o
o
o
o
A large stakeholder meeting was held in March 2009 at which the project was introduced to
stakeholders.
A series of stakeholder meetings (or Technical Focus Groups) on the technical and nontechnical options for reducing transport‟s GHG emissions. These were held in July 2009.
A series of Technical Focus Groups on the policy instruments that could be used to stimulate
the application of the options for reducing transport‟s GHG emissions. These were held in
September/October 2009.
Two additional large stakeholder meetings at which the findings of the project were discussed.
As part of the project a number of papers have been produced, all of which can be found on the
project‟s website, as can all of the presentations from the project‟s meetings.
1.4
Background and purpose of the paper
This paper “Review of potential radical future transport technologies and concepts” has been drafted
under the Part III of the project, Task 9 “Ad hoc papers”, here the main objective is to provide the
Commission with ad hoc written support/briefings and concise analytical/discussion papers on issues
related to the project‟s core work.
New technologies and concept options have been identified in other Papers under this project, though
these have focused on the more mainstream areas. The purpose of this paper is to look at the many
out-of-the-box or concepts, or technologies that are being developed but are not yet near market, or
not being widely applied as yet. This review includes technologies and concepts across all of the
modes of transport, as well as those that might replace transport.
1.5
Structure of the paper
Following this introduction this paper is structured according to the following further 8 chapters, plus
references:
2. Radical concepts and technologies for road vehicles
3. Radical concepts and technologies for land-based non-road modes
4. Radical concepts and technologies for aviation
5. Radical concepts and technologies for maritime and inland waterway vessels
6. Radical concepts and technologies for replacing travel
7. Discussion of the possible implications of the for transport GHG emissions
8. Summary of Key Findings and Conclusions
9. References
6
Each of the main chapters from to provides brief summaries of individual concepts or concept
areas, with an overview and assessment of the following (depending on the availability of supporting
information):
Potential impact on GHG emissions;
Potential for further development of wider application;
Barriers to further development of wider application.
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2
Radical concepts and technologies for road
vehicles
2.1
Electric trolley-buses and electric trolley-trucks
Concept: Electric trolley vehicles
Developer: Electric Tbus Group
Energy source: Overhead electricity
Development stage: Technology developed in the
early 1990s.There are currently around
40,000 trolleybuses in service throughout the world.
Trolleybuses promote clean and quiet urban transport by drawing their power from overhead electric
wires networks. Two spring-loaded poles are mounted to the top of the vehicle to complete the circuit
and supply power. Trolleybuses offer the potential to replace bus services on busy urban routes and
companies such as Electric Tbus group, have proposed trolleybus routes for cities such as London.
More radically, the concept has the potential to be applied to freight transport, establishing a trolleytruck network for cargo transportation.
The initial trolleybus concept dates back to the 1880s, however it was not until 1901 that the world‟s
first passenger-carrying trolleybus (operated in Bielathal, Germany) was built by Max Schiemann. The
first cities to have trolleybus networks were Leeds and Bradford, UK in 1911, both of which are no
longer in use.
Electric Tbus Group estimates that there are 400,000 trolleybuses in service through the world. This
includes trolleybus networks in large European cities, such as Athens, Bucharest, Budapest, Lyon,
8
Milan, Minsk, Moscow and Naples . Trolley-trucks are not currently used as a means of transportation
but in the future could be used on popular freight transportation routes as an alternative to traditional
heavy-goods vehicles.
Potential impact on GHG emissions
Trolleybuses rely on a central supply of electricity from power stations through overhead wires,
therefore offering several key environmental benefits over a large number of internal combustion
engines.
Trolleybuses offer the ability to control emissions (CO, NOx, SOx, HCs or particulates) more readily.
Monitoring emissions from large fixed plants operating under stable conditions is easier than
controlling the emissions from small mobile plants operating under continually varying conditions. In
addition, by utilising the national grid, there is a reduced need to build new energy infrastructures and
the advantage of being able to use energy resources that are otherwise impractical or impossible in
vehicles, such as wind and water power. In Canadian cities Calgary and Vancouver, light rail and
trolleybus networks are run off wind power and hydroelectricity respectively through the national grid
systems.
8
8
Electric Tbus Group (2010) Available at: http://www.tbus.org.uk/home.htm
Figure 5 shows the average environmental costs of different transit vehicle modes. Trolleybuses
running of the UK grid offer environmental and global warming due to CO 2 costs of below 1 pence per
km of operation. By powering trolleybuses on renewable energy through the same system, the
environmental costs of operating trolleybus network have the potential to be reduced to zero. Freight
transportation vehicles travel further distances in more polluting vehicles, therefore offering a transport
sector which this technology could be expanded into in the future to achieve greater GHG emission
savings.
Figure 5:
The cost of trolleybus operation compared with other transport modes
(*) ”Calculable” refers to the fact that the figures only include those costs for which figures are
9
available in the research literature .
Potential for further development of wider application
Trolleybuses offer an alternative to cars and other internal combustion engine vehicles which are a
major source of particulate pollution in the street level atmosphere. Carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases that traditional road vehicles produce would be reduced as a result of a shift to
trolleybus travel.
The electric motors of a trolleybus allow it to climb steep hills more easily than diesel engines. As they
draw power from a central plant, trolleybus can be overloaded for several minutes without damaging
the vehicle. This advantage over diesel engines has prompted trolleybuses to be used in steep US
cities, such as San Francisco and Seattle. Trolleybus and trolley-truck technology can also generate
electricity through regenerative breaking.
The potential for trolleybuses to become a more prominent transport mode of the future has been
10
analysed by Gilbert and Perl (2008) who have analysed and proposed modal share for trolleybuses
by 2025. They propose that in the US, 500 billion tonne-kilometres could be moved by trolley-trucks,
drawing power from overhead wires along existing highways without the need for tracks. This mode of
9
Brown, K. (2001) Calculations and references relating to health
and environmental costs, in relation to Public Service Vehicles. Used as the basis for East London Transit
operational cost calculations by the Electric Tbus Group (2001). Available from: www.tbus.org.uk/calculations.doc
10
Gilbert, R. and A Perl (2008) Transport Revolutions – 2025: Moving People and Freight Without Oil. Earthscan
2008. Available at: http://richardgilbert.ca/transportrevolutions/index.htm
9
travel would use less energy than battery trucks because there would be no energy losses due to
charging and recharging. A similar estimation is given for China to be able to use trolley-trucks by
2025.
Barriers to further development of wider application
Although trolleybus overhead wiring and traction can last for many years, the initial cost of
infrastructure is a potential barrier. The financial barrier may however be overshadowed by the social
barrier of a changing city landscape and an aesthetic objection to overhead wiring. A commitment to
high quality provision as necessary for congestion reduction and allowance for high capacity vehicles
are additional barriers to a trolley-bus or trolley-truck network.
When overhead wiring is not available (due to a breakage or disaster), trolleybus networks have in the
past experienced severe delays due to long rerouting along alternative overhead cables. This would
be a major concern for a trolley-truck network of the future which might not be able to promise the
delivery of cargo. Trolleybuses also cannot easily overtake due to the restriction of being on a wire
network. These issues have been addressed in more recent hybrid systems, through an emergency
off-wire power alternative or even greater range-extended capability with larger electrical storage.
2.2
In-Road electric vehicle charging infrastructures
Concept: In-road vehicle charging
Developer: Ingenieurgesellschaft Auto und Verkehr (IAV),
DARPA and Korea Advanced Institute of Science Technology
Energy source: Electricity via electromagnetic fields
Development stage: Being developed. Patent in the US
for “Armature induction charging of moving electric vehicle
batteries” in place. IAV carried out successful pilot scheme.
In-road vehicle charging technology charges electric vehicles through a process of electromagnetic
induction. An electromagnetic field extended along a driving lane and a level controlled armature
mounted on the underside of the body, allows the vehicle to straddle and traverse over a magnetic
field, thus charging an on-board battery. A bar-coding and scanner system would allow vehicles to be
appropriately charged for their recharging time. However, a prototype model to test the robustness of
such a charging system in adverse weather conditions or if the vehicle becomes dirty needs to be
thoroughly tested.
The in-road charging concept has been used and developed by a variety of institutions and
companies. The US DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) funded the PATH
11
program creating an in-road vehicle charging prototype in Berkeley, California which moves buses
12
along set tracks. Researchers at the Korean Advanced Institute Of Science Technology have been
able to achieve 80% efficiency with a 1 cm gap between the power strip and the vehicle charger.
13
The Germany company Ingenieurgesellschaft Auto und Verkehr (IAV ) have developed the
14
technology further and specialise in future vehicle generations . IAV have looked at using the
technology on motorways, carrying out a successful pilot scheme to test the technology. IAV has
achieved 90% efficient transmission for electric vehicle charging from roads using recessed electrical
11
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) (2009) Available at: http://www.darpa.mil/
Ihlwan, M (2009) “Korea's On-the-Go Electric-Car Experiment”. Businessweek Online. Korea: September 29,
2009. Available at: http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/sep2009/gb20090929_734418.htm
13
IAV (Ingenieurgesellschaft Auto und Verkehr) (2009) Available at: http://www.iav.com/en/index.php
14
IAV (2009) Power from the street: Vision non-contact power supply of electric cars. Available at:
http://www.iav.com/de/index.php?we_objectID=15760&pid=227
12
10
conductors that generate a magnetic field; activated only when the sensor detects that an electric car
15
is over the induction field .
The energy lost through inductive transmission is relatively low, at about 10%, mainly due to the
technology‟s sensitivity to the distance between roadway and vehicle floorpan. Other researchers
16
have reached 70-80% efficiency when the gap between the vehicle and the road is widened . An
active suspension and opto-electronic measurement techniques could be used to ensure the optimum
distance is automatically controlled and the least amount of energy lost as a result. However, even
so, the drawback of such systems may be their relative energy inefficiency compared to direct
charging points which could potentially reduce the net benefits of electric vehicles. This could be the
case at least in the shorter term until sufficient quantities of (affordable) renewable/ essentially carbonneutral electricity is available.
Electric vehicle charging has the advantage over other technology option that it is discreet and can be
incorporated into vehicles and roads without aesthetic compromise. In addition, in-road charging
would make vehicle batteries cheaper and lighter (potentially counter-acting to an extent the reduction
in net efficiency due to the higher energy losses from in-road charging systems).
Induction charging is also insensitive to weather conditions, and is free of mechanical wear. The
vehicle‟s inductive pickup mechanism is not visible externally, allowing automobile designers to
continue to enjoy the styling freedom to which they are accustomed.
Electrical machines for use in light rail applications (streetcar, tram) or electrical appliances are proven
and well developed, but could and should undergo extensive optimisation for use in the automobile.
Putting power strips underground is a costly infrastructure change but has been argued to be cheaper
than building charging stations in big cities where real estate prices are exorbitantly high. Researchers
at KAIST have estimated that Korea would need to place underground charging strips beneath 30% of
its roads to make the system work across the country. Charging whilst travelling and when in traffic
jams means that smaller roads would not need charging facilities.
The University of California-Lawrence Berkeley National Lab developed similar research into this type
of in-road charging around 20 years ago but the technology has not had a commercial take-out. With
the rising price of oil, the technology potentially offers an alternative to fossil fuel reliance. However,
the technology is still being researched and has not been tested on a significant scale with electric
vehicles.
2.3
Self-drive vehicles
Concept: Autonomous or driverless vehicles
Developer: Stanford University, European Commission
EUREKA, DARPA (US)
Energy source: Electric vehicles
Development stage: Technology has been developed
since 1980s. Ability to drive and navigate vehicle well
tested but algorithms for advanced obstacle navigation
still taking place.
15
Christensen, B (2009) In-Road Electric Vehicle Charger. Published by Technovelgy.com. Available at:
http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-News.asp?NewsNum=2591
16
Ihlwan, M (2009) “Korea's On-the-Go Electric-Car Experiment”. Businessweek Online. Korea: September 29,
2009. Available at: http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/sep2009/gb20090929_734418.htm
11
Research into driverless technology began in 1977 but it was not until the 1908s that research into the
17
field took off. The EUREKA Prometheus Project was the largest R&D project ever in the field of
driverless cars running from 1987 to 1995. In today's money it received more than 1 billion dollars of
funding from the European Commission, and defined the state of the art of autonomous vehicles.
Numerous universities and car manufacturers participated in this Pan-European project.
The DARPA Grand Challenge held in 2004 and 2005 is a prize competition for driverless cars.
18
Sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) of the US Department of
Defense, the event was the first long distance race for driverless vehicles. In 2007, DARPA held an
urban challenge, increasing the difficulty of the event by requiring vehicles to obey traffic rules and
navigate obstacles.
As well as the EUREKA and DARPA projects, driverless passenger car programs include the
19
“2getthere” passenger vehicles (using the FROG-navigation technology) from the Netherlands and
20
the ARGO research project from Italy .
Developing technology to allow vehicles to drive themselves has potential positive environmental
impacts due to improved overall efficiencies. Driverless technology means that cars on motorways can
be pooled together (more in Section 2.6), therefore reducing the environmental impact of several
vehicles. The concept is that by slowly decreasing the tasks for humans, vehicles will drive more
intelligently, making decisions based on the most efficient options. It is important to note that the fuel
type used for driverless vehicles has a key impact on the greenhouse gas savings associated with this
technology. Petrol and diesel vehicles have the greatest greenhouse gas saving potential from selfdrive technologies as they are the most effected by driving techniques. Smoother and more efficient
driving will reduce tailpipe greenhouse gases for combustion vehicles whereas the emissions
reduction potential for electric or hybrid vehicles is likely to be less.
In 2008, GM announced that they will begin testing driverless cars by 2015 with the aim of having
them on the road by 2018. Figure 7 shows a similar timescale for the development of this technology.
When considering the potential for the development of this technology in the future, the need for
enhancements to infrastructures to create a driving environment which is driverless friendly. A
possible stage in the evolution of fully autonomous vehicles would be the use of „assistance‟ systems
which would gradually remove the driving requirements for drivers. Examples of incremental self-drive
aspects could include: 360 degree vehicle sensing; autopilot technologies; intelligent speed adaptation
and improvements to cruise control. Types of driverless vehicles are shown in Table 2.
17
EUREKA Prometheus Project (2009) PROgraMme for a European Traffic of Highest Efficiency and
Unprecedented Safety,1987-1995. Available at: http://www.eurekanetwork.org/
18
Hardy, I (2009) “Cutting traffic with driverless cars”. BBC Online. Thursday, 10 September 2009. Available at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/click_online/8236921.stm
19
Sustainable Mobility Solutions (2007) Available at: http://www.2getthere.eu/
20
Broggi, A (1996-2001) ARGO Project. University of Parma. Available at:
http://www.argo.ce.unipr.it/ARGO/english/
12
Table 2
Types of driverless vehicles
Type of driverless vehicle
Fully autonomous vehicle
Pre-built infrastructures
Driver assistance
Use/s
Personal vehicles for paved roads which require no human
control.
Free ranging off-road vehicles with military uses to navigate and
reach a target
Dual mode transit combining human and autonomous driving (See
Section 2.4)
Automated highway system (AHS) combining in-road charging
(See Section 2.2) and automated driving
Free-ranging on grid (FROG) which combines autonomous
vehicles and a supervised central system in a defined area.
Incremental stepping stones towards an autonomous system
including:
o Sensorial-informative driving
o Visibility aids
o Anti-lock braking system
o Traction control system
o Electronic stability control
In order to drive a car, an automated system needs the four aspects shown in Figure 6. Currently,
navigation technology, based on GPS and actuation technology to drive the vehicle are well
developed. Sensor systems vary greatly, from those that imitate the human situation to artificial vision
21
image processing used by Mobileye . Motion planning is the largest obstacle still to overcome to
enable the take-up off driverless technology. Motion planning in vehicles is detailing a task into
motions through an algorithm for successfully and safely driving to a new location. The technology to
create these algorithms and produce the speed and turning commands to send to the vehicle‟s wheels
is a technological areas which needs developing before driverless vehicles can be more widely used
without fear of crashes.
Figure 6:
Technology aspects of a driverless vehicle
Sensors
Understand its immediate
environment
Navigation
Know where it is and
where it wants to go
Actuation
Operate the mechanics of
the vehicle
Motion planning
Find its way in a flow of
traffic
21
Mobileye (2010) Mobileye Online. Available at: http://www.mobileye.com/
13
2.4
Dual mode transit
2.4.1
Personal dual-mode transit
Concept: Dual mode transit
Developers:
TriTrack (US), RUF (Denmark)
Megarail (US), JR Hokkaido (Japan)
Energy source: Battery and electricity
Development stage: Dual mode car
system not currently operating.
A dual mode transit system consists of personal vehicles which have the ability to travel on a monorail
type centralised system. The system combines the flexibility of a private automobile with the efficiency
and environmental benefits of a monorail system.
Dual mode vehicles have various potential benefits over conventional single mode vehicles, such as
an increased system vehicle capacity compared with roads. This is due to the ability to move vehicles
in tight formations through a computer system. Electric vehicle technology could be incorporated into a
dual mode system, allowing vehicles to be charged during track journeys. In addition, the guidance
system of the track is more time and space efficient than conventional road infrastructures.
Dual mode vehicles would be expected to use batteries for short distances at low speeds and be
provided with power when travelling on a track of guideway. Examples of projects that are researching
22
23
24
the potential for dual-mode vehicle systems include TriTrack (US), RUF (Denmark), Megarail
25
(US) and JR Hokkaido (Japan).
As with other potential future modes of transport, dual-mode transit systems rely on a national
electricity system instead of internal combustion engines for each vehicle. The environmental
advantage of this system is that centralised power station emit fewer greenhouse gases than
traditional fossil fuel vehicles. TriTrack dual-mode vehicles reduce NOx emissions by 90% compared
26
with internal combustion vehicles . By using renewables, the environmental impact of transportation
through a battery/electric dual-mode system will further decrease emissions from transport.
Building guideways and tracks for dual-mode transit which run off electricity means that if new energy
sources are used, such as wind and solar power, vehicles will still be able to function. Dual-mode
vehicles that run on batteries are small and light-weight fulfilling the demand for a mode of transport
which is suitable for short journeys. The concept neatly fulfils the demand for a vehicle which has short
and long term journey efficiency.
Dual-mode vehicles attempt to provide travelers with a solution to their short and long term needs.
Unlike other modes, such as motorcycles for short trips and railways for long distances, the dual-mode
system tries to combine the driver with options depending on their journey type. However, to
successfully give drivers this option, a costly new infrastructure and new vehicles need to be
22
Tritrack http://www.tritrack.net/
RUF http://www.ruf.dk/
24
MegaRail Transportation Systems Inc. (2008) MicroRail Zero-emission, Dualmode Car. Available at:
http://www.megarail.com/MicroRail_Urban_Transit/Dualmode_Automobile/
25
JR Hokkaido http://www2.jrhokkaido.co.jp/global/index.html
26
http://www.tritrack.net/environment.html
23
14
manufactured. It is not easy to retrofit dual-mode technology to current infrastructures and vehicles,
with most cases suggesting new versions of both on a small urban scale. Where other technologies
use similar electric power sources, they also use existing or adapted infrastructures.
Confirming the commitment to a new infrastructure and fleet of vehicles is a social challenge as well
as a financial one. In addition, electric motor batteries in dual mode vehicles are suitable for short
trips but may not provide drivers with the acceleration performance or load-bearing capacity needed
for operations in a city. For this reason, such technology seems unlikely to have potential for
widespread adoption until the longer term.
2.4.2
Mass dual-mode transit
Concept: Dual-mode variants
Developer: Silvertip Design (UK) & JR Hokkaido
Railway Company (Japan)
Energy source: Electric batteries and electric track
Power sources
Development stage: Prototypes have been developed
but vehicles are not yet available
Dual-mode vehicles can run on conventional roads or designated railways. They offer the flexibility of
being able to use electric battery power for short distances and track-fed power for longer distances
and higher speeds.
Japanese corporation JR Hokkaido Railway Company have developed a prototype minibus with
retractable train wheels for use on conventional railway tracks. A 28-seat bus with four highway
wheels for roads and four steel wheels (plus two rubber tyres for tracks) has been built and it able to
reach 60km/h on motorways. After researching problems with slow transition between modes, JR
Hokkaido has developed a vehicle that can be switched between rail and road modes in 10 to 15
27
seconds .
Silvertip Designs have used this Japanese concept and developed the BladeRunner which uses
rubber tyres and retractable steel wheels for dual-mode capabilities. The driving and braking power
comes from the road-mode tyres which are still in contact with the rails and are able to automatically
28
vary the weight sharing between rail and road wheels according to the power transmission needs .
BladeRunners can carry cargo or passengers and costing indicates that the yearly depreciation
charge would typically be €3,800 more than that of a normal articulated truck but that the savings on
29
running costs would be approximately €8,700 .
Dual-mode technology offers more control than traditional trains which for example, have long
breaking distances. When travelling on rail, the BladeRunner is expected to have a 45% saving in fuel
30
consumption , reducing the emissions from long-distance journey caused by trains.
Dual-mode transport systems which can use one set of wheels on both track and road surfaces has
not yet been successfully developed and if designed, could open up the dual-mode market by
31
eliminating the need for drivers to switch between modes .
27
Innovative Transport Technologies (2007) Japanese Dual Mode Vehicles. Available at:
http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/japanese_dualmode.htm
28
Henderson, C(2004) Blade Runner Dualmode System. Available at:
http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/bladerunner1.htm
29
Silvertip Design (2008) BladeRunner. Available at: http://www.silvertipdesign.com/
30
Silvertip Design (2008) BladeRunner. Available at: http://www.silvertipdesign.com/
15
Dual-mode vehicles can offer benefits for the freight and commercial sectors in the future by giving
them the flexibility of transporting large numbers of good or passengers long distance by train and
then being able to transport them to a specific destination by road travel. The dual-functionality of the
vehicles would also mean that railway obstructions or delays could be avoided by leaving the track
and driving around the problem.
In this mode of transport, the routing, speed and fuel economy of rail is combined with the
convenience and organisational economy of road. The capital cost of dual-mode vehicles themselves
is understandably greater than that of a pure road vehicle; however the overall operating costs are
32
estimated to be much less .
Design features to ensure the safety of the vehicle in both modes are essential. The cost of building
prototype large dual-mode vehicles has been expensive and complicated in the past. The technology
of dual-mode vehicles needs to be considered further before dual-mode transport can be adopted a
mainstream alternative to purely road or rail vehicles. Ensuring the safety of the vehicles and that the
conversion between the two modes is efficient is important to see in a working prototype before dualmode vehicles can evolve.
2.5
Intelligent roads
Concept: Intelligent roads
Developer: Universal Traffic Management
Society of Japan (UTMS), INTRO Project
Energy source: IT technology to facilitate more
efficient use of roads.
Development stage: Concept stage for most
technologies.
The INTRO Project creates a vision for intelligent roads over the next 30 years. The research into the
emerging technologies associated with intelligent roads acknowledges that changes to vehicle design
in the next 20 years will not eradicate the need for road infrastructures. With weak and costly
opportunities to expand road networks, particularly in urban areas, it is likely that computerised road
systems and new „intelligent‟ roads will become essential in managing consumer and business travel
needs. Figure 7 shows how, over the next 30 years, intelligent road technologies are expected to
develop (self-drive vehicles, as covered in section 2.3, are also a longer-term part of this roadmap).
31
Orcahrd, R (2004) “Innovation: Is this the future?” Bus & Coach Buyer. Page 18.
Hanlon, M (2009) Blade Runner Dual-mode vehicle. Gizmag online. Available at:
http://www.gizmag.com/go/3077/
32
16
Figure 7:
Intelligent Road Emerging Technologies
Source: Scheduled benefits from some main emerging
technologies areas (great potential for “intelligent road
applications”) (INTRO, 2007)
The Universal Traffic Management Society of Japan (UTMS)are planning on using two-way infrared
beacons to analyze real-time information about street conditions, hazards, and pedestrians who aren't
33
paying attention . Minimising crashes, unsafe driving and congestion allows for a shorter driving time
and a more efficient use of fuel, therefore reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Often the primary advertised benefit of intelligent road systems is safety. The short-term future of road
transport is destined to rely on roads and therefore making them a safer place with increased capacity
is essential. A longer term vision for intelligent roads recognises that live data can be aggregated and
used to manage the environmental impacts of a network. For example, this could be through
autonomous speed limits which wireless prevent a driver from speeding by taking control of a vehicle.
A vision for intelligent roads for the next 30 years in Europe has been outlined by the Transport
34
Research Arena . Created in 2007, this vision to 2037 sets out to fit with various road types and
conditions encountered in Europe: Urban motorway; Urban Radial road; Interurban motorway;
Interurban road and Rural road. Figure 8 shows the clustering of visions per road conditions
33
Murph, D (2006) “Japan planning intelligent road systems” Engadget Online. Available at:
http://www.engadget.com/2006/08/18/japan-planning-intelligent-road-systems/
34
Cocu, X, Winder, A & R Opitz (2008) A Vision of Intelligent Roads (INTRO project) Transport Research Arena
Europe 2008, Ljubljana. http://www.ocw.be/pdf/tra/2008_Cocu.pdf
17
Figure 8:
Clustering of visions per road conditions for Europe
“Req” = Required & “Rec” = Recommended
The idea of an „intelligent road‟ covers a plethora of short and long-term technologies which can be
implemented to improve the way in which vehicles can driven. Some of these technologies are
developed (such as access to traffic flow data), whereas others will not reach the market for a long
time (automated speed enforcement control). Road networks have different needs and functions
prompting the need for a clear understanding of each road technology to be able to decide upon the
best technology for a particular network.
2.6
Road trains
Concept: Road trains
Developer: SATRE Project, Led by Ricardo UK Ltd
Energy source: Navigation system, transmitters and
receivers used to reduce the amount of fuel used.
Development stage: Test tracks could be set up by
2011. Ricardo estimate 10 years until fully available.
18
Road train technology utilises autonomous driving; as discussed in Section 2.3 and 2.5, this
technology means that a vehicles is able to take control over acceleration, braking and steering, and
can be joined to other similarly controlled vehicles.
In order to connect to a lead vehicle, individual vehicles need to be equipped with a navigation system
and a transmitter/receiver unit. A six to eight vehicle road train will then be led by an experienced
driver, allowing drivers in the following cars to hand over control of their vehicle until they wish to leave
the road train. The technology does not require major investment in new infrastructures as the
equipment improvements are to individual vehicles rather than wider infrastructures such as new
roads and the technology can be used on existing motorway networks.
From an environmental perspective, cars in the train are travelling close to each other, exploiting a
resultant lower air drag. In addition, the energy saving as a result of the linked up controls is expected
35
to be in the region of 20% . Road capacity will also be able to be utilised more efficiently as cars can
safely travel inches away from each other.
The Ricardo-led consortium that are running the SATRE (Safe Road Trains for the Environment)
project have said that the first test cars equipped with this technology could roll on test tracks as early
36
as 2011 . Road trains do not require investment in new road infrastructures or newly designed
vehicles but instead can reduce fuel consumption through the installation of a navigation system and
transmitter/receiver units in current vehicles. Where other technologies require expensive, long-term
options, the prospect of road-trains is comparatively short-term and inexpensive with test trials in the
UK, Spain and Sweden expected in 2012 and a potential move to market within the next decade.
Compared to other options for the future, the barriers for road-trains are fewer and less obstructive. A
key barrier is that the technology is primarily for motorway use and functions most successfully on
long journey with infrequent exit points. Changing the preconceived notions and habits of drivers to
safely use a technology which allows them to hand control of their moving vehicle to an automated
system must be introduced with clear guidance and in a manner which does not compromise the
safety of uneducated drivers.
2.7
Vehicle Mass Transit System (VMTS)
Concept: Vehicle Mass Transit System (VMTS)
Also referred to as Carbus or Autobus.
Developer: University of California at Davis
Energy source: Vehicle fuel (carrying trailers
could be electric vehicles)
Development stage: Concept stage
35
BBC News (2009) “'Road trains' get ready to roll” BBC News Online article from Monday, 9 November 2009.
Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8349923.stm
36
Ricardo (2009) Cars that drive themselves can become reality within ten years. Press release issued by the
Ricardo-led SARTRE (Safe Road Trains for the Environment) consortium. Available at:
http://www.ricardo.co.uk/en-gb/News--Media/Press-releases/News-releases1/2009/Cars-that-drive-themselvescan-become-reality-within-ten-years/
19
Developed by Professor Andrew A. Frank at the University of California at Davis, a Vehicle Mass
37
Transit System (VMTS) would utilise large trucks that operate on dedicated lanes and carry
numerous small vehicles from one point to another. The large trucks would travel at speeds of around
60 mph and carry smaller vehicles on existing infrastructures, therefore presenting a lower cost mass
transit option when compared with other systems, such as dual mode transit or driverless vehicles.
The trucks would provide the drivers of smaller vehicles with a high speed, stressless journey in the
comfort and privacy of their own vehicle. Existing motorway interchanges could be used to build
loading stations whilst facilities inside the trailer could include telecommunications and electric vehicle
charging points.
The environmental potential of this technology lies in of its potential to discourage long personal car
journeys whilst giving drivers the flexibility and comfort of travelling in their own vehicle. However, the
significant addition mass of the „carrier‟ vehicle adds doubt to how much potential this technology has
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The efficiency gains of not driving several combustion vehicles
could be offset by the addition fuel consumption needed to transport these vehicles in the carrier
vehicles. Other factors which would impact the environmental credentials of such a technology are the
fuel of both the personal and carrier vehicles (as offsetting electric cars with a large combustion
vehicle would have a negative impact) and ensuring the carrier capacity is full utilised to realise full
emission reducing potential.
The principle behind a road-based Vehicle Mass Transit System could be used to develop a car-train
carrier system for those travelling longer distances. The application of this technology for inter-city
travel between European cities is an option, giving drivers the flexibility to drive around when they
have reached their destination.
The infrastructure needed to set up this technology would be primarily boarding stations at key points
in a road network. Loading palettes to move vehicles on and off the truck would need to be built and
could be integrated into current refuelling networks on road motorways. There would potentially also
need to be a sophisticated booking / journey matching system in order to optimise vehicle loading to
ensure theoretical efficiency improvements are in fact realised. This occupancy factor is similar to
those for bus and rail services which influence net environmental benefits.
2.8
Alternative fuels
2.8.1
Dimethyl-Ether (DME)
Dimethyl-Ether (DME) is a non-toxic gas with properties resembling LPG that is usually derived from
methanol produced during the chemical conversion of coal, natural gas, or biomass. The short carbon
chain of the DME compound leads to very low emission of particulate matter, including carbon
monoxide and nitrogen oxide. DME can be used as fuel in diesel engines, gasoline engines (30%
DME/70% LPG), and gas turbines.
DME is a low emissions fuel which is sulphur- and metal-free, offering a more environmentally friendly
alternative to petrol and diesel fuels. Furthermore, DME has a potential for significantly reduced CO2
emissions in the long-term (if produced via biomass) and diesel engines running on 100% DME have
demonstrated smoke free combustion.
Moderate modifications are needed to convert a diesel engine so that it is compatible to burn DME.
Coordinated by Volvo and funded under The European 7th Framework Programme (FP7) and The
Frank, A. A (2008) “Vehicle Mass Transit System (VMTS) - (aka Carbus or Autobus)” University of California at
Davis. Available at: http://faculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/vmts.htm
37
20
Swedish Energy Agency, DME is being developed as a synthetic biofuel (BioDME), which can be
38
manufactured from lignocellulosic biomass . A fuel storage, handling and injection system has also
been developed for advanced passenger cars (PNGV) by AVL Powertrain Technologies.
Due to the fact that DME Fuel is suitable to be bunt in diesel engines rather then engines meant for
gasoline use, it can be used in the heaviest polluting forms of road transport, including heavy goods
vehicles, agricultural and industrial engines. Furthermore, preliminary economic calculations show that
production processes are simpler than ethanol from cellulose as well as final product costs less then
both fossil diesel or biodiesel.
39
Other principal benefits and advantages for DME are cited as including :
Low noise potential;
Cost competitive with conventional refinery fuels;
Similarity with LPG means that the costs and implications of a DME infrastructure are also very
similar;
High fuel economy
High well-to-wheel efficiency
Thermal efficiency equivalent to diesel engine performance
Ignition characteristics equivalent to diesel engine performance
A high cetane rating* of 55 – 60 (compared to about 45 for petroleum-derived diesel) and a boiling
point of -25ºC provide fast fuel/air mixing, reduced ignition delay, and excellent cold starting
properties.
DME is relatively unknown as a fuel. It has been used as a organic solvent and and extraction agent in
laboratory and particularly for industrial purposes as a aerosol propellant.
2.8.2
2,5-dimethylfuran (DMF)
2,5-dimethylfuran is a potential biofuel which can be derived from cellulose. Fructose can be
converted into DMF in a catalytic biomass-to-liquid process. In comparison with ethanol, the energy
density of DMF is 40% greater, making it comparable to petrol.
Starch and cellulose based feedstocks are widely available in nature and in foods such as fruit and
some root vegetables, adding to the attraction of DMF.
The environmental implications of DMF are largely unknown due to the lack of use of the material as a
fuel. It is known that DMF has a 40% higher energy density than ethanol, similar to the densities of
petroleum based fuels. DMF also requires less energy to be produced than ethanol and can be
blended with gasoline.
40
Other benefits cited for DMF include :
It provides more energy than ethanol and also requires less energy to be produced;
It is also not water soluble so it would be easier to blend with gasoline than ethanol;
In the process of producing DMF an important chemical intermediate, hydroxymethylfuran
(HMF) is produced, which may be used to produce plastics, drugs, and fuels as an alternative
to petroleum derived alternatives.
38
BioDME (2009) Production of DME from Biomass and utilisation as fuel for transport and for industrial use.
Available at: http://www.biodme.eu/
39
Sørensen, J N (2007) DME-Fuel. FLSmidth Roadrunners. Available at:
http://www.ecocar.mek.dtu.dk/Dynamo/DME-Engine/DME-Fuel.aspx
40 Markusson, E (2007) “Is DMF a green alternative to ethanol” Available at:
http://www.helium.com/items/465807-is-dmf-a-green-alternative-to-ethanol
21
Safety issues of using DMF need to be examined as its impact on the environment and vehicles is not
as well understood as bioethanol or biodiesel.
2.8.3
Compressed air vehicles
Concept: Compressed air vehicles
Developer: Tata Motors &
Motor Development International SA (MDI)
Energy source: Engine fuelled by air stored in a tank
under high pressure (similar compressed air technology
used in torpedo propulsion)
Development stage: Built and tested
Most Compressed Air Technology (CAT) vehicles are in reality electric vehicles which require
electricity to compress the air that powers them. By using CAT during start up and acceleration, the
compressed air vehicle is able to use less power overall than all-electric cars by only relying on the
electrical drivetrain to maintain velocity and cruise.
There have been prototype CAT vehicles since the 1920s when torpedo propulsion was used as
inspiration for fueling vehicles using air. Compressed air cars use the expansion of compressed air (in
a similar way that steam engines use steam) rather than driving engine pistons with an ignited fuel-air
mixture.
41
French company Motor Development International (MDI) is designing compressed air car prototypes
marketed under the title "the Air car". MDI have five types of compressed air vehicles, ranging from a
small three-seater AirPod to a MultiFlowAIR which is designed to replace buses. The Air Car has been
in development for the last 20 years. In 2008, it was announced that MDI would be collaborating with
42
India's Tata Motors to produce the Tata/MDI OneCAT (pictured above) . It is unclear whether this
project is progressing as planned and currently the MDI designs exist in a proposal stage having not
been commissioned by any organisations.
Compressed air vehicles are emission-free at the tailpipe and have an environmental footprint that is
dependent on the source of the electricity supply. A study by UC Berkley however concluded that even
under highly optimistic assumptions, the compressed air car is less efficient than a battery electric
vehicle. In addition, it was found that it produced more greenhouse gas emissions than a conventional
43
gas powered car with a coal intensive power mix . This has been questioned by MDI but establishes
that the environmental credentials of the air car need to be established before it can be considered as
a benefit to reducing greenhouse gases.
An integral part of the development of CAT for wider application is the management of the air
compressing and refilling process. The energy required for compressing air less costly and
41
Motor Development International (2009) Compressed air engines. Available at:
http://www.mdi.lu/english/produits.php
42
Harrabin, R (2008) “India's Tata backs air-power car” BBC News Online. Available at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7243247.stm
43
Lucas, P (2009) “Air cars under testing but are they efficient?” TheGreenCarWebsite.co.uk. Available at:
http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk/blog/index.php/2009/12/14/air-cars-under-testing-but-are-they-efficient/
22
environmentally more effective to manage than individual vehicles as it is produced at centralised
plants.
Manufacturing the compressed air vehicles is estimated to cost about 20% less than producing fossil
fuel vehicles and they are much lighter than non-air cars, including the SmartCar. The reduced
manufacturing cost is because there is no need to build a cooling system, fuel tank, ignition systems
or silencers. In addition, a compressed air tank has a life of 12,000 discharge cycles (approximately 30
years) compared to a battery lifespan which is only a twelfth as long.
A potential high cost for the compressed air vehicle is robust carbon-fibre tanks to ensure that air is
safely held under pressure. Despite not being flammable, when held under pressure, a tank explosion
has the potential to cause a harmful blast-pressure wave.
23
3
Radical concepts and technologies for
land-based non-road modes
3.1
Maglev
Concept: Maglev (Magnetic Levitation)
Developer: Transrapid International
Energy source: Magnetic fields
Development stage: Systems currently in place
in countries including the US, China and Japan.
Maglev transportation uses a technology that suspends and propels vehicles, using magnetic
levitation. Magnetic levitation is when a vehicle is suspended by magnetic fields without the support of
anything else. Maglev trains can therefore offer offering a quieter, smoother and faster alternative to
44
other mass transit systems .
Instead of using a conventional train engine powered by fossil fuel, maglev trains use the magnetic
field created by electrified coils in guideway walls and the track to propel the train. Maglev trains float
on a cushion of air, eliminating friction and therefore allowing them to travel at unmatched ground
transportation speeds of up to 310mph (500km/h). There are two types of maglev technologies being
developed: Electromagnetic Suspension (EMS) and Electrodynamic Suspension (EDS).
German company Transrapid International are the market leaders for EMS technology and have a test
track in Emsland, Germany with a total length of 31.5 km (19.6 miles). Electromagnets attached to the
undercarriage of a maglev train are directed up toward the guideway, this levitates the train about 1
cm above the guideway. The train is kept levitated when it is not moving by these magnets and it kept
stable during travel by guidance magnets embedded in the train's body.
EDS is slightly different and is being developed by Japanese engineers using super-cooled,
superconducting electromagnets. An EDS electromagnet can conduct electricity without a power
supply, unlike standard electromagnets which only conduct electricity when a power supply is present.
By chilling the coils at frigid temperatures, Japan's system saves energy, however the cryogenic
system needed to cool the coils can be expensive.
There are currently maglev train systems in San Diego (USA) and several systems in China and
Japan, including the first commercial high-speed maglev line in Shanghai, China built by Transrapid.
45
Inaugurated in 2002, the Shanghai Maglev Train runs 30 km from downtown Shanghai to the
Pudong International Airport with a top speed of more than 500km/h.
Figure 9 shows the carbon dioxide emissions of a Transpraid maglev train compared with car, air and
train travel. ICE refers to the Deutsche Bahn ICE train which currently connects major German cities.
The magnetic and electricity energy sources used to power maglev trains means that carbon dioxide
emissions are very low, particularly if the electricity is powered by nuclear or renewable sources. The
greater energy consumption at higher speeds compared with conventional rail or high-speed rail
44
45
Magplane Technology Group of Companies (2007) Available at: http://www.magplane.com/
Shanghai Maglev Transportation Development Co Ltd (2005) Available at: http://www.smtdc.com/en/
24
services may potentially be offset by greater occupancy factors due to greater modal switch (e.g. from
cars or air services).
Figure 9:
46
Transrapid CO2 Emissions
Maglev trains experience no rolling resistance due to the lack of physical contact between the track
and the vehicle. This improves the power efficiency of the train as it only has air resistance and
electromagnetic drag working against it.
The primary advantage of maglev trains over other high-speed rail options for the future is their speed.
47
In 2003, the Japanese maglev train MLX01 set a world speed record for a train at 581km/h . When
travelling long distance, maglev trains can offer a speed which is comparable with flight travel and
therefore is a potentially attractive technology for popular travel routes between cities. As shown in
Figure 9, the prospect of a modal shift from air travel to maglev trains offers a considerable reduction
in GHG emissions.
Implementing a maglev system requires a complete introduction of new vehicles and infrastructures as
the technology cannot be easily retrofitted or incorporated into to current networks. Conventional high
speed trains such as the TGV are able to run at reduced speeds on existing rail infrastructure and
therefore offer a significantly cheaper alternative to implementing a new maglev infrastructure.
Consequently, a potential future barrier to the use of maglev technology is its high cost compared with
traditional rail options. At a price tag of US$1.33 billion, the Shanghai Maglev Train was not the
cheapest option but has been argued by some to be viable in the long-term due to the reduced energy
consumption in propelling the train. A €1.85 billion project for a maglev system in Bavaria was
46
Transrapid (2009) Energy consumption of Transrapid maglev trains. Available at: http://www.transrapid.de/cgitdb/en/basics.prg?session=9be8fa13451ed8b9&a_no=47
47
JR Central (2004) The Superconducting Maglev Sets a Guinness World Record for Attaining 581km/h in a
Manned Test Run. March 1, 2004. Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central). Available at: http://english.jrcentral.co.jp/news/n20040301/index.html
25
48
cancelled in 2008 due to costs almost doubling . In the UK, a feasibility study is being carried out for
a maglev system from London to Edinburgh alongside high-speed rail alternatives.
3.1.1
Underground Maglev Systems
Concept: Tube Underground Magnetic Levitation Railway
Developer: RUMBA
(Röhren-Untergrund-Magnetschwebe-Bahn)
Energy source: Magnetic levitation
49
The RUMBA (Röhren-Untergrund-Magnetschwebe-Bahn) system is a concept proposed by Christian
Bruch which uses magnetic levitation technology underground. The RUMBA system provides
transport for small travel groups via small, electronically controlled cabs. Each small vehicle would be
propelled along an underground tube network using magnetic levitation power as outlined in Section
2.1.
For long-distance trips, the tubes would have low pressure (about 10 to 20 % of the atmospheric
50
pressure) and a speed of up to 400 km/h would be possible . Private and public stations could be
built underground, offering the potential for tunnels to be mixed use between private and public
vehicles.
The GHG emissions created by a RUMBA system are potentially low as maglev and electric
technologies can be used across the system. There are however, environmental issues to be
considered regarding the building of a series of underground tunnels and whether the same transport
needs could be addressed with an on-land system which would have a smaller impact. There are very
significant amounts of embedded energy in producing underground tunnels – in both materials and
tunnelling energy consumption. These embedded emissions would significantly reduce the GHG
benefits compared to alternative overland options. As the RUMBA system only exists in a concept
stage, a greater understanding of the location of a potential system would need to be looked into.
In the outline of the RUMBA concept, it is proposed that the energy required to build a network is far
less than that needed for conventional road and railway transport systems. The RUMBA system also
offers beneficial uses which are similar to other PRT systems, as outlined in Section 2.2.
The environmental costs of creating the infrastructure are a barrier for this technology. Where other
technologies use existing infrastructures and road networks, this technology is proposing to use a
relatively new propulsion technology (maglev), in a vehicle type which is again not widely used
(Personal Rapid Transit). Consequently, there will be social obstacles to overcome to ensure travellers
that the technology and method of travel is safe as well as technological barriers to ensure that the
technology is reliable.
48
Heller, Gernot (2008) "Germany scraps Munich Transrapid as cost spirals". Reuters. Available at:
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSL2777056820080327?sp=true
49
Bruch, C (2005) RUMBA (Röhren-Untergrund-Magnetschwebe-Bahn): A Universal Transport System of the
Future. Available at: http://www.cbruch.homepage.t-online.de/Rumba_e.html
50
Bruch, C (2005) RUMBA (Röhren-Untergrund-Magnetschwebe-Bahn): A Universal Transport System of the
Future. Available at: http://www.cbruch.homepage.t-online.de/Rumba_e.html
26
Constructing underground networks is far more complex, dangerous and costly than those above
ground and therefore a future shift in concern towards needing to place networks underground or
economic, social or environmental reasons would need to come about to warrant placing maglev PRT
systems underground.
3.2
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
In Sections 3.2.1 and 3.2.2, two forms of Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) are looked at. In the future, the
flexibility of a PRT system would make it a feasible transport option for many situations. PRT offers a
possible solution in different areas where installing a conventional heavy transit system is not feasible.
Potential PRT applications include both urban areas and major activity centres including those
outlined in Table 3.
Table 3
Future potential uses of PRT systems51
Type of PRT system
Local circulator
Collector/distributor
City-wide rapid transit
3.2.1
Key potential applications
Airport
Shopping mall
University campus
Hospital
Park and ride
Extension of existing transport modes
New urban city developments
Business parks
Tourist attractions
ULTra (Urban Light Transport)
Concept: ULTra
Developer: Advanced Transport Systems (ATS)
Energy source: Battery power
Development stage: First full system being built
at Heathrow Airport in the UK (due to open in 2010).
The ULTra (Urban Light Transport) personal rapid transport system is a series of small, lightweight,
computer-driven electric vehicles running on slender, special-purpose guideways. The ULTra vehicle
is designed to provide passengers with a personal vehicle to take them to their desired destination,
without stopping at undesired destinations, dubbed by some as an „autonomous taxi‟.
Each vehicle is rubber-tyred, battery-powered and designed to comfortably carry 4 passengers. The
small vehicles are virtually silent when running and are lightweight, giving them the ability to navigate
complex routes with minimal supporting infrastructure. Batteries are quickly charged up at stations and
the vehicles run along simple guideways with barriers which are passively navigated by the vehicle.
51
Vectur (2009) PRT Applications. Available at: http://www.vectusprt.com/prt/application.php
27
Advanced Transport System Ltd (ATS Ltd) began testing the first prototype in 2001 and is now
developing the ULTra system at London Heathrow Airport. The Heathrow ULTra system will comprise
of 4 kilometers of guideway and will link one station in Terminal 5 to two remote stations in the
Business car park. Expected to open in 2010, ATS reports that the total cost of the Heathrow system
52
(vehicles, infrastructure and control systems) is between £3 million and £5 million per km of track .
The environmental credentials of ULTra technology depends on the source of the electricity supplying
the vehicle batteries. ATS Ltd state that their system is 50% more energy-efficient than buses or
53
trains, and 70% more energy-efficient than private cars . The average energy use is 0.59 MJ per
54
passenger km which makes it more efficient than a car . However, the application of such systems is
limited to shorter trips within a closed designated area. Therefore their total potential for impact on
GHG emissions may be limited to certain applications.
BAA have said that the ULTra system “is the only practical solution, providing a 60% improvement in
55
travel time and 40% operating cost savings ”. In 2009, BAA and ATS agreed a 20-year framework
contract for use of ULTra for all BAA deployments of PRT. The ULTra PRT system is ideal for airport
and similar sites as it can provide an autonomous but personal system over short distances.
The short waiting time (ATS estimate that 95% of passengers will wait for less than one minute for
their private pod) and personal travel environment are appealing social attributes of this type of travel
compared with pre-scheduled mass transit vehicles such as trains. In order to encourage a modal shift
away from personal cars, these attributes could be make ULTra a popular options for travelers, at
least for shorter defined journeys compared to alternatives.
The ULTra system is suitable for short trips within a closed designated area and is therefore well
suited for airports. The infrastructure costs and barriers for developing the system are also relatively
easy overcome due to the low cost of the technological aspects and the fact that the vehicles travel on
roads. The limitations of ULTra as a system which transport small numbers of people short distances
is the major drawback to this technology.
3.2.2
Podcars
Concept: PRT Podcars
Developer: Vectus, 2getthere, Taxi2000
Energy source: Electricity
Development stage: Test tracks completed in Wales.
Planned 5km guideway in Suncheon, Republic of Korea
to be completed by 2013. Various proposed sites in
Abu Dhabi and Dubai, UAE.
Similar to ULTra technology, podcars are a personal rapid transit (PRT) system which offers ondemand, non-stop transportation, using small, automated vehicles on a network of specially-built
guideways. Unlike ULTra vehicles that travel on roads, podcar technology uses purpose built tracks to
guide personal vehicles.
52
ATS Ltd (2009) ULTra FAQ. Available at: http://www.atsltd.co.uk/prt/faq/
ATS Ltd (2009) ULTra FAQ. Available at: http://www.atsltd.co.uk/prt/faq/
54
Innovation Watch (2009) “Autonomous taxis” Ingenia. Issue 39. June 2009. Page 56.
55
BAA Conclusion quote on ULTra at London Heathrow. Available at:
http://www.atsltd.co.uk/applications/existing-systems/heathrow/
53
28
Mechanical guidance is provided through the guide whilst switching is done on-board the podcar
vehicle. The vehicle wheels are made of solid, specially-developed polymer which offers very low
rolling friction, low curve friction, and very high resistance to wear. The wheels run on a hard surface
and combined with the aerodynamic design of the vehicle, this gives the necessary thrust to be able to
56
maintain speeds of about 40 km/h .
In order to reduce energy consumption, podcars are aerodynamically designed and use running
wheels with very low friction on a steel surface creating a low running resistance for both straight and
curved track. SkyWeb Express podcars which are developed by Taxi200 have estimated that when
57
built, their system could save 4,617 pounds (2.1 tonnes) of CO2 per driver per year .
As with other PRT (including ULTra), the short waiting time and personal travel environment are
appealing aspects of this type of travel when compared with pre-scheduled mass transit vehicles such
as trains.
When compared with other forms of PRT, such as ULTra, podcars that travel on a steel track require a
greater investment in infrastructure. They also offer less flexibility for changing the route of vehicles
with evolving travel needs.
3.3
Hybrid tricycle
Concept: Hybrid tricycle
Developer: Aerorider (Netherlands)
Energy source: Human pedalling and battery
Development stage: Prototypes have been developed
but not currently in production.
58
The Aerorider is a hybrid tricycle, combining human and electric power to give users a 45km/h
cruising speed. The electric technology makes pedalling easier and allows the vehicle to be able to
keep up speed on steep inclines. The Aerorider has a battery included (NiMH or Lithium) which is
recharged and acts as a hybrid support to the power generated from human pedalling.
Battery range depends on how the Aerorider is used and on the terrain but averages between 20 and
80 kilometres. Slopes and frequent acceleration will decrease the range whereas faster pedalling will
increase the range of the vehicle. The battery charger can be plugged into a standard mains outlet
whereas the more advanced batteries, which are lighter and smaller, can be removed from the
vehicle.
The technology used to build hybrid tricycles and similar vehicles relies on a renewables electricity
supply to make sure it is sustainable. The greenhouse gas emissions from electric vehicles are lower
than those of combustion engines in individual vehicles and therefore the hybrid tricycle offers a more
56
Vectus Inteligent Transit (2009) Available at: http://www.vectusprt.com/prt/overview.php
Taxi2000 (2009) SkyWeb Express Benefits. Available at: http://www.taxi2000.com/benefits.html
58
AERO Rider (2010) Available at: http://www.aerorider.com/
57
29
environmentally friendly alternative to the fossil fuel passenger car. The small size of the vehicle also
reduces the required motive energy.
If the future of transport technology shifts towards an electric based system, whereby personal and
mass transit system rely on electricity from a central supply, the Aerorider and other personal hybrid
tricycle vehicles could offer travellers with a small and compatible option for short-distance travel.
In some European countries, mopeds are a popular form of travel. Hybrid tricycles are a potential
future alternative for these travellers. In Denmark (where the Aerorider is registered as a moped),
there are currently about 160,000 traditional mopeds that run on fossil fuels and are therefore noisy
and polluting. Air pollution from those 160,000 traditional mopeds is estimated to cost around 50 lives
59
a year and could be reduced by using electrical alternatives which are non-polluting at the road .
Vehicles such as the Aerorider only offer space for one person and therefore are arguably not a direct
alternative for the passenger car but instead for the human powered bicycle. Hybrid tricycles could
however be used as an alternative mode of travel in the future for those travelling short distances on
their own.
As with other electric vehicles, the range of hybrid tricycles depends on the battery capacity and
terrain, making it suitable for relatively short distances only. The Aerorider is priced at around 9,400€,
making it a more expensive option for those wishing to switch from a moped.
3.4
Hoverboards
Concept: Hoverboards
Developer: Future Horizons Advanced Technology
& Arbortech
Energy source: Hovercraft air-cushion technology
Development stage: Concept stage. Personal
hovercraft available from Arbortech
Hoverboards are generally considered to be a fictional form of transport, although there are some
inventors that have designed prototypes. Resembling a skateboard, the hoverboard as a mode of
personal transport first appeared in 1989 film Back to the Future II. The first commercially available
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personal hovercraft is called the Airboard and is produced by Australian company, Arbortech. An oncraft engine drives a fan which is responsible for lifting the vehicle by forcing high pressure air under
the skirt of the craft.
Future Horizons Advanced Technology has designed a personal hoverboard system which uses high
performance hovercraft technology to lift a 250+lb rider 3 inches above the ground. A 6 horsepower 4stroke gasoline engine spins a 5 bladed propeller to force air under the craft which in turns lifts the
61
craft .
If they were to become technologically ready for the market, hoverboards would be used to replace
distance would otherwise be either walked or cycled. As a result, hoverboards could have a
59
Stenkjaer, N (2008) “Electrical Mopeds”. Nordic Folkecenter for Renewable Energy. Available at:
http://www.folkecenter.net/gb/rd/transport/electrical_moped/
60
Arbortech (2009) Airboard. Available at: http://www.arbortech.com.au/view/airboard-information
61
Future Horizons Advanced Technology (2009) “Hoverboards” Available at:
http://www.futurehorizons.net/hoverboard.htm
30
detrimental environmental impact by encouraging a greenhouse gas emitting mode of travel which has
previously been zero emissions.
The personal hovercraft primarily offers an alternative to cycling or walking short distances. The
technology has been mainly used for military and recreational purposes up until now but over the next
50 years, the same technology could be used to propel commercial vehicles.
The primary barrier to this technology becoming a feasible option for the future is the advancement of
its technological credentials to ensure the safety of users. A lack of systems to manage how users
travel safely without the limitations of road and rail networks are another key obstacle to this
technology becoming a mainstream option for the future.
31
4
aviation
4.1
Flying cars
Concept: Microlight flying cars
Developer: Includes the Moller International and
AirScooter Corporation.
Energy source: Gasoline, battery or ethanol
Development stage: Prototypes have been
built but not rigorously tested. The personal
vehicle which can switch between aircraft and
automobile is still very much in the concept stage.
Flying cars are dual-mode vehicles which are capable of travelling on roads and in the air with a
manual or automated process of conversion between the two modes. These vehicles can be classified
as both an automobile and an aircraft and differ slightly from small planes which do not have
automobile capacities, sometimes referred to as flying cars in fiction.
Where past attempts to integrate automobile and aircraft technologies into a single mode of transport
have relied on a modular approach of having to change parts of the vehicle, some recent examples
are trying to integrate the aspects of each technology into one vehicle.
The AirScooter II by AirScooter Corporation is a design concept for a Vertical Take Off and Landing
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(VTOL) aircraft which offers personal air flight . The vehicle is aerial focused and does however not
combine the automobile components of the flying car concept to make it a potential dual-mode option
for the future of an amalgamated automobile/aircraft technology.
Moller International has developed the Moller Skycar, a prototype personal VTOL (vertical take-off and
landing) aircraft which gains power from four ducted fans. In the future, Wankel engines will be used in
the vehicles rather than jet engines, lowering the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. These
engines use a rotary design to convert pressure into a rotating motion instead of using reciprocating
pistons and run on a mixture of 70% (bio)ethanol and 30% water.
Moller International have explored different fuel options for their flying cars and looked at the
environmental impact of these. The ethanol/water fuel mixture proposed in the Moller Skycar would
result in engine pollution lower than the California „Super Ultra Low Emissions Vehicle‟ standard. A
different proposed model from Moller is powered by electric Altairnano lithium ion batteries, but again
this model has not been tested or proven. Either way it seems very likely that the GHG emissions
from using this concept would exceed the alternative of existing high-occupancy dedicated passenger
aircraft.
Fictional representations of cars have become emblematic of the gap between ambitious futuristic
visions for transport and the actual technological achievements. It is however questionable whether
flying cars can offer a useful solution to future travel problems. Using air space in crowded urban
areas where space for land based travel modes is scarce is a feasible step in transport planning.
However, mass transit options are likely to be more feasible for urban solutions.
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AirScooter Corporation (2010) Available at: http://www.airscooter.com/index.html
32
Flying cars do offer an alternative for short distance personal travel problems that would otherwise
likely be made by personal road vehicles, such as cars. However, the cost of such a vehicle is likely to
mean that if the technology is developed within the coming decades, a vehicle is likely to be a luxury
item rather than a competitive alternative to the traditional car.
The primary carriers facing the development of flying car technology are technology and the
management of safety. Despite being around for decades as a landmark of technological
achievement, the flying car still poses technical issues. The amalgamation of automobile and aircraft
technologies to develop a single dual-mode vehicle is still a major barrier to overcome before this
technology can be considered as a feasible transport option for the future. The need for new
infrastructures and the enlightenment of drivers to flight safety are other key barriers that face the
uptake of this technology.
The prospect of individuals being able to drive and fly their own vehicles with VTOL technology posses
a management challenge. Controlling where owners can take-off and land and more importantly at
what height they can fly is essential for safety. NASA has designed an altitude management computer
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system to handle this problem if flying car technology does take off called “The Highway in the Sky .”
4.2
Hybrid Airships
Concept: Hybrid Airship
Developer: Worldwide Aeros Company & World
SkyCat Ltd
Energy source: Blimp/airplane hybrid. 14 million
cubic feet of helium to hoist two thirds of the craft's
weight and six turbofan jet engines for Vertical
Take-off and Landing (VTOL)
Development stage: Prototype expected in 2010
The Aeroscraft ML8XX is a hybrid airship which uses blimp and airplane technology to stay airborne.
A scaled-down prototype was made in 2008, and a full scale passenger craft is expected in 2010. At
210 ft and 400-tonnes, the Aeroscraft has a flight ceiling of 12,000 ft.
To stay airborne, the Aeroscraft uses a combination of aerodynamic and aerostatic principles; giving it
64
the ability to fly up to 6,000 miles at a maximum of 174mph . Around two-thirds of the craft's lift is
provided by helium gas whilst the remaining lift is provided by the forward thrust of the craft's
propellers, in combination with its aerodynamic shape, and its canards (forward fins) and empennage
65
(rear fins) . It has been proposed that the aft-powered propellers will be electric, powered by a
renewable source such as hydrogen fuel cells.
Airship cruises offer a potential radical alternative to cruise ships which have more traditionally
dominated the recreational long-distance travel market. With a range of several thousand miles and a
cruising altitude of around 8,000 feet, airship cruises could offer passengers the amenities of a
traditional cruise liner whilst providing highly marketable aerial views. As well as recreational uses, the
63
Leung, R (2005) “Flying cars ready to take-off” 60 minutes: CBS News. Available at:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/04/15/60minutes/main688454.shtml
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Tompkins, J (2006) “The Flying Luxury Hotel: Tomorrow's cruise ship will sail through the air, not the water”
Popular Science Magazine Online. Available at: http://www.popsci.com/aeros/article/2006-02/flying-luxury-hotel
65
Grabianowski, E (2006) "How the Aeroscraft Will Work". How Stuff Works. Available at:
http://science.howstuffworks.com/aeroscraft.htm
33
potential to use the vehicle for military and commercial cargo deliver purposes has also been
identified.
The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research estimates that, when burning fossil fuels, the total
66
climate-changing impact of an airship is 80-90% less than that of ordinary aircraft . With renewable
energy sources on board, the airship could have even less of an environmental impact.
Another key environmental benefit of an Aeroscraft over airplanes is a significant reduction in noise
pollution due to a reliance on helium for lift during flight, as opposed to the burning of fuels. Hydrogen
fuel cells and other low emission fuels are proposed to be used to power the electric propellers onboard, making the aircraft fuel efficient and quiet.
The Aeroscraft uses six downward-pointing turbofan jet engines for VTOL. Similar to helicopters, this
reduces the overall space needed for take-off and landing, increasing the flexibility of destinations for
the craft over other traditional aircrafts.
The vehicle also has a technology which controls buoyancy by taking in air from the surrounding
atmosphere and holding it in pressurised tanks (Dynamic Buoyancy Management). This technology
allows the Aeroscraft to land on rough land, snow or water.
These features make the Aeroscraft a future option as: a luxury cruise airship for tourists; a cargo ship
for transporting up to 400-500 tonnes of cargo from one location to another via one mode of transport;
a military vehicle for transporting goods and troops to remote locations; for delivering water or
fertilisers to remote farmers or for delivering relief goods to disaster zones. World SkyCat Ltd offer
similar technology to the Aeroscraft and have a range of airships for emergency relief (SkyLift),
67
surveillance and border control (SkyPatrol), cargo haul (SkyFreight) and passenger cars (SkyFerry) .
A major barrier to the development of airship technology is the capacity of the aircrafts. Most
traditional airships carry only a very small crew and are used as a tourist attraction or for advertising
purposes. The Aeroscraft intends to offer a 180 passenger luxury cruise version of their design which
68
is a far lower passenger capacity than a Boeing 747 which carries approximately 460 people . In
addition, the Aeroscraft travels at about the same speed as a high-speed train and therefore is likely to
have to offer luxury additions for passengers instead of trying to compete with much faster airplane
travel. Changing public perception of airships and ensuring them of its safety is essential to secure
much needed funding for airship projects to become a viable option for the future.
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Shreeve, J L (2008) “Airships: Colonel Blimp's eco-flight credentials”. Telegraph Paper Online. Available at:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/greenerliving/3344952/Airships-Colonel-Blimps-eco-flight-credentials.html
67
World SkyCat Ltd (2010) World SkyCat designs. Available at: http://www.worldskycat.com/
68
Dodson, S (2008) Floating the idea of an airship comeback. The Age News Online. Available at:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/news/a-comeback-for-the-airship/2008/06/09/1212863499259.html
34
4.3
Wing-In-Ground
Concept: Wing-in-ground aircrafts
Developer: Boeing
Energy source: Uses ground effect to stay
above water/land
Wing-in-ground (WIG) technology is used to power ground effect vehicles which use a cushion of
high-pressure air to stay in flight near the ground. This is made possible by the aerodynamic
interaction between the wings of the craft and the surface, known as ground effect. A WIG vehicle
differs from a traditional aircraft as it cannot operate without ground effect and therefore its operating
height is limited (relative to its wingspan).
WIG technology has been in development since the 1960s and was originally developed by the Soviet
Union as very high-speed military transports. Germany, Russia and the US starting using the
technology in the 1980s for smaller recreational vehicles but it is not widely used today.
Lift-induced drag is significantly reduced when WIG vehicles are flying, therefore giving them better
fuel efficiency than aircrafts flying at a low level. Research from the Korea Ocean Research and
69
Development Institute (KORDI) shows that flying at extremely low altitudes increases air pressure
under the wing of the craft by almost 80 percent, allowing WIG crafts to burn up to 50 percent less fuel
than other aircrafts travelling the same distance. However, energy consumption is still much higher
than shipping, so would act to increase GHG emissions if such services were replaced.
WIG crafts offer a faster alternative to transporting goods or passengers by ship whilst offering
cheaper operational costs than current airplanes. In the future, large WIG crafts could carry out the
role of cargo ships if investment in the technology is secured.
In 2002, Boeing released designs for the Pelican ULTRA (Ultra Large Transport Aircraft), a proposed
70
ground effect fixed-wing aircraft under study by Boeing Phantom Works . The Pelican is an example
of how WIG theory could be incorporated into aircrafts, giving them dual capabilities. Designed for
long-range, transoceanic transportation, the Pelican could fly at 20 feet above the sea but could also
function as a plane at 20,000 feet.
A barrier that wing-in-ground crafts have experienced in the past is the classification and legislation
needed to recognise them as either ships or aircrafts. Due to the fact that aircraft and maritime rules,
procedures and organisation are applicable means that in the future, the management of WIG crafts
will need to be administered with caution.
Flying WIG vehicles so close to the sea takes specific training and can potentially be dangerous and
difficult, even with computer technology guidance. Additionally, take-off must be into the wind which
means taking-off towards waves, creating drag and reducing lift.
69
KORDI (2005) “What are the Naval implications of S.Korea's Flying Boats” Available at:
http://forum.keypublishing.co.uk/archive/index.php?t-38033.html
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Cole, W (2002) The Pelican: A Big Bird for the Long Haul. Boeing Frontiers: Phantom Works. Available at:
http://www.boeing.com/news/frontiers/archive/2002/september/i_pw.html
35
WIG crafts which do not have aircraft capabilities may not be able to travel if seas are rough. Ensuring
that WIG technology is a safe and environmentally beneficial option, rather than only mode, is a
potential way of ensuring that vehicles can climb to higher altitudes if they need to.
4.4
New aircraft configuration concepts
4.4.1
Blended Wing Body
Concept: Blended wing body
Developer: NASA & Boeing
Energy source: Jet fuel
Development stage: Concept has been in development for
last few decades but no commercial transport ever made.
Blended-wing body is an alternative airframe design for aviation vehicles which has a blended
fuselage and flying wing design. This gives the aircraft efficient high-life wings and a wide airfoilshaped body.
NASA, Boeing and the U.S. Air force are collaborating on a BWB design, called X-48. A small remote
control model was successfully flown and used to test BWB technologies but a full commercially
available craft has not yet been created.
The thick centre body part of the craft accommodates passengers and cargo without the extra wetted
area and weight of a fuselage. Original NASA and Boeing designs for such as aircraft could hold as
many as 800 passengers, however versions with as few as 250 passengers and more conventional
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twin, podded-engines have also been designed using BWB technology
The shape of the BWB design improves the airplane efficiency, therefore reducing the amount of fuel
consumed and greenhouse gases emitted. This is achieved by the whole body of the aircraft being
able to contribute towards providing lift. Boeing engineers estimate that the X-48 is 30% more fuel
72
efficient than an airplane of similar size that carries the same payload .
NASA has said that the BWB aircraft would reduce fuel burn and harmful emissions per passenger
mile by almost a third in comparison to today‟s aircraft. Increased aerodynamic performance, lower
operating cost and reduced community noise levels are also other potential benefits of the BWB
aircraft.
NASA said that a blended wing body military aircraft could be in service within 10 to 15 years with
73
expected flight by 2020 .
A technological barrier to the BWB design is ensuring safe cabin pressurisation. Current airliners have
a cylinder- shaped fuselage which is ideal for maintaining cabin pressurisation. Adversely, the unique
71
Kroo, I (2000) “Reinventing the Airplane: New Concepts for Flight in the 21st Century”. Future Technology and
Aircraft Types. Available at: http://adg.stanford.edu/aa241/intro/futureac.html
72
Barnstorff, K (2006) The X-48B Blended Wing Body. NASA. Available at:
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/improvingflight/x48b.html
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NASA (1997) The Blended-Wing-Body. NASA Facts: BWB Technology Study. National Aeronautics and Space
Administration.
36
shape of the BWB requires a novel approach to satisfy pressurisation and structural needs. Design
control also needs to make sure that the wings do not create drag due to their increased thickness.
4.4.2
Joined wing
Concept: Closed or joined wing aircraft
Developer: NASA
Energy source: Design feature
Development stage: Mostly conceptual
Joined wing (or closed wing) bodies are aircrafts that do not have any wingtips, instead creating a
closed loop design. The purpose of a joined wing structure is to eliminate the influence of wingtip
vortices which occur at the tips of conventional wings. These tubes of circulating air which are left
behind the wings as it generates lift form a major component of wake turbulence which forms behind a
craft as it produces drag.
In the 1980s, Dr. Julian Wolkovitch developed the joined wing design as an efficient structural
arrangement for aircrafts. In his designs, the horizontal tail was used as a structural support for the
74
main wing as well as a stabilising surface .
There is debate about the best type of closed or joined wing for reducing the drag from wingtips. One
environmental benefit comes round adding large loops of rigid ribbon material attached to each
wingtip, known as Spiroid Winglets. These are estimated to be able to cut fuel consumption by 6% 75
10% in cruise flight .
It is difficult to distinguish between the benefits between different joined wing designs and further
challenging to estimate which structures will be the most fuel efficient. Joined wing designs are being
considered for application to high altitude long endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs).
Although there is potential in the joined wing designs, different closed wing plans remain mostly
confined to the realms of studies and conceptual designs.
NASA have acknowledged that the engineering challenges of developing a strong, self-supporting
closed wing for use in the large airliners which would benefit most from greater efficiency have yet to
be overcome.
74
Kroo, I (2000) “Reinventing the Airplane: New Concepts for Flight in the 21st Century”. Future Technology and
Aircraft Types. Available at: http://adg.stanford.edu/aa241/intro/futureac.html
75
Aviation Partners Inc (2010) At Aviation Partners, the future is on the wing. Available at:
http://www.aviationpartners.com/future.html
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4.4.3
Oblique flying wing
Concept: Oblique flying wing
Developer: United States DARPA
(Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency)
Energy source: Jet fuel
Development stage: Models have flown and a full
scale research project is being funded. Test craft
expected in 2020.
The Oblique Flying Wing (OFW) is an aircraft which has a wing and no other auxiliary surfaces (such
as tails, carnards or a fuselage). The configuration of a pure flying wing is believed to be able to offer a
high speed, long range and long endurance.
The OFW is an extension of the „oblique wing‟ concept which is a single pivoting wing attached to the
top of a traditional cylindrical fuselage. An oblique wing can rotate so that one tip is swept forward so
that drag can be reduced at high speed without sacrificing low speed performance.
In 1994, a NASA grant receiver from Stanford University built and flew a 10ft and a 20ft oblique flying
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wing . The first was powered by a propeller whilst the second flew with two ducted fans. Both models
used vertical fins to provide directional stability and control and were the first examples of the oblique
flying wing concept successfully taking flight.
In 2006, the US DARPA (Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency) awarded Northrop Grumman
a US$10.3 million contract for risk reduction and preliminary planning for an X-plane oblique flying
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wing demonstrator . The first phase of the project will explore conceptual design, followed by a phase
to design, manufacture and flight test an OFW aircraft, to be known as Switchblade.
The main environmental concern with building aircrafts which are capable of supersonic flight is that
they will be releasing nitrogen oxide (NOx) into the stratosphere, causing potential damage to the
ozone layer. Flying at higher speeds also uses more fuel, so although this concept is more efficient
than other supersonic concepts, it could result in an increase in GHG compared to conventional
aircraft travelling at lower speeds.
DARPA and Northrop Grumman plan for the first flight of the Switchblade to be in 2020. The OFW will
cruise with its 61-meter long oblique wing perpendicular to its engines like a typical aircraft and if
successful, will be the first supersonic flying wing and the first tailless OFW. The OFW is capable of
efficient supersonic flight and also has excellent low speed endurance, making it a suitable option for
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
The change in aerodynamics and the general structure of the aircraft makes the OFW very difficult for
a human being to control. As a commercial passenger aircraft, the oblique flying wing does not
present many advantages beyond speed which make it a worthwhile technology over other aircraft
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Stanford University News Release (1994) Flying model demonstrates that radical SST design is flyable.
Stanford University. Available at: http://www.stanford.edu/dept/news/pr/94/941108Arc4056.html
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The Oblique Flying Wing Page (2006) Project between DARPA and Northrop Grumman. Available at:
http://www.obliqueflyingwing.com/
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designs, such as BWB. The benefits of the oblique flying wing lie in its supersonic ability and
endurance, therefore making it a likely option for UAVs in the future.
4.5
Space travel
Concept: Space travel
Developer: Virgin Galactic , The Spaceship Company &
Russian Space Agency
Energy source: Single hybrid rocket motor after being
detached from a mother ship at 50,000 ft.
Development stage: Deposits can be placed on flights
into space but regular commercial flights are not yet available.
Space tourism is a recent concept of humans paying to travel into orbit in a spaceship. The Russian
Space Agency is the only company that currently provide trips to space through the company Space
Adventures, running trips to the International Space Station.
Space tourism companies generally propose flights that make suborbital journeys peaking at an
altitude of 100-160 kilometres. As one of the potential future market leaders in space tourism, Virgin
Galactic seat prices will be US$200,000 with the price expected to eventually fall to $20,000.Flights on
Virgin‟s SpaceShipTwo will last just 2.5 hours, taking 6 passengers to a speed of Mach 3 before
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reentering the Earth‟s atmosphere .
Virgin‟s SpaceShipTwo has a single hybrid rocket motor to launch from mid-air after detaching from a
mother ship at 50,000 feet.
The development of a space tourism industry would command the need for a new, large and resource
intensive infrastructure to fulfill the needs of space travelers. Besides the need for very large amounts
of energy (and hence resulting GHG) to launch such vessels, rockets themselves can use toxic
propellants and can use chemicals, such as perchlorate, which cause temporary holes in the ozone
layer. The process of spacecraft reentry also generates nitrates which have a temporary detrimental
impact on the ozone layer. Wider environmental concerns about the detrimental impact of space
debris on Earth should be considered.
Future spaceflight is an area which has some of the most radical future potential transport
technologies. NASA is researching radical options including a 40,000km high elevator into space
which could offer cheaper space tourism in the future by propelling passengers into space on maglev
trams. Other options include spacecrafts which are powered by antimatter, ion engines, nuclear power
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and the power of the sun .
Commercial flights with Virgin Galactic are expected to start running within the next 5 years whilst
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Scottish futurologists have predicted a tourist base being available on the moon by 2040 .
A circumlunar trip on a Russian Soyuz spaceship costs between US$20-35 million and although
subsidies can be arranged for carrying out research, the inevitable barrier for the development of
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Virgin Galactic (2010) Future Spaceflight. Available at: http://www.virgingalactic.com/
BBC News (2008) Available at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/space/exploration/futurespaceflight/
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McGinty, S (2006) Scotland 2040: Spaceships head for Moon with lunar golfers and crater ramblers aboard.
Scotsman.com Online. Available at: http://news.scotsman.com/spacescience/Scotland-2040-Spaceships-headfor.2817737.jp
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space tourism is the cost. Over the last four decades, Government space funding has been slowly
replaced by private investment in an early space tourism industry.
4.6
Personal Jetpacks & Rocket Helicopters
Concept: Personal Jetpacks & Rocket Helicopters
Developer: Jetpack International & Tecnologia Aeroespacial
Mexicana
Energy source: Rocket packs typically use either hydrogen
peroxide (H2O2) or Jet-A fuel with a rocket motor. Turbojet
packs use kerosene and a turbojet engine.
Development stage: Prototypes have been developed for each
but they are not commercially available.
Jetpacks use a back-mounted jet device with escaping gases to allow a single person to fly. The
oldest known type of jetpack or rocket pack is the Bell Textron Rocket Belt from the early 1960s whilst
today there are several companies claiming to be selling jetpacks or rocket packs of some form.
Drawing on the ideas of the1960s model, Jetpack International set out to create a jetpack that is
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lighter, faster, more economical and longer-flying . Although they have developed three different
types of jetpacks, only one of them (Jet pack T-73) is for sale. With a price tag of US$200,000, the T73 can offer the user around 9 minutes of flight at 250ft, travelling at up to 83mph.
Mexican company Tecnologia Aeroespacial Mexicana (TAM) is one of the only companies in the world
that sell a flying and tested rocket belt that runs on hydrogen peroxide. Selling at US$125,000
including a training course, the jetpack offers the user the opportunity for fully-controlled personal
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flight . TAM have also prototyped a backpack helicopter called Libellula. The craft would have a 2blade rotor driven by a small rocket motor at the end of each rotor blade.
Jetpacks and personal rocket helicopters with turbo engines can be powered by traditional kerosene.
These models have a higher efficiency, greater flight length and a greater height potential but are
extremely expensive and complex to construct. In the 1960s, a test model of a kerosene jetpack was
built but no longer flies.
Comparing the fuel efficiency of different jetpacks and rocket helicopters is difficult because so few
have been successfully built. Both technologies however primarily offer an alternative mode of
transport for individuals which would otherwise be carbon neutral (walking or cycling), therefore
indicating that a future mainstream use of this technology would result in a greenhouse gas increase.
Advancements in the safety of personal jetpacks and rocket helicopters are needed before these
technologies can be considered as future options for travel. Both concepts transport one person to a
specific end location, therefore decentralising fuel based travel down to an individual level and
discouraging group commuting as a form of fuel efficiency.
Personal jetpack and rocket helicopter technologies are not modes of transport which are naturally
suited to the Earth‟s environment or the human body. The Earth‟s gravity and atmosphere make it
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JetPack International (2009) Available at: http://www.jetpackinternational.com/
Rocket Belt (2009) Tecnologia Aeroespacial Mexicana. Available at: http://www.tecaeromex.com/ingles/RBi.htm
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challenging for exposed transport modes such as these to be able to take flight. In addition, the human
body is not well suited to flying without encasement.
The exposed nature of jetpack and rocket helicopter technology puts a question about the future
safety of such modes if they were to become more popular in the future. In addition, networks to
manage the travellers using personal jetpacks and rocket helicopters would have to be established to
ensure flight safety.
These technologies are unlikely to become mainstream means of personal transport in the future and
instead are likely to fulfill a novelty purpose for the media or specific technical roles for reaching
otherwise inaccessible locations.
4.7
Alternative fuels for aviation
There have been a number of alternative fuels suggested for aviation, summarised briefly below and
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discussed in greater detail in Paper 2 for this project .
Low energy fuels and conventional biofuels
Short-haul and commuter aircrafts that travel on routes under 500-millesare the most likely aviation
group to use alternative aviation fuels. These fleets are largely powered by turbo-prop or by turbofan
engines and may be likely to have sufficient capacity in their fuel tanks to carry a biofuel or a cheaper
fuel with lower energy content. However, „drop-in‟ aviation biofuels are also under development (e.g.
based on hydro-treating vegetable oil, or biomass-to-liquid processes) that could offer significant
alternatives to conventional kerosene fuels for all types of aircraft.
Hydrogen fuel
A radical long-term departure from kerosene fuels and kerosene-like biofuels would be the use of
hydrogen fuel. If it became possible to use super-cooled liquid hydrogen in aviation, this could become
an alternative fuel for some types of commercial airline service. The likelihood of this happened by
2050 however is extremely doubtful without radical technological advances.
Electrical energy storage
It is doubtful whether electrical energy storage is a viable option for even 2050 but it is a potential
alternative fuel to consider. A post-peak oil commercial aviation industry could require vast amounts of
electric power to recharge superconductive energy storage systems, recharge liquid nitrogen cooling
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systems as well as to generate, compress and super-cool large amounts of hydrogen .
Significant improvements in electrical energy storage are needed in road transport before it is likely to
become a mainstream form of energy. In aircrafts there are even more exacting requirements in terms
of weight and range which makes this option less plausible within the near future.
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Hill, Hazeldine, Pridmore, von Einem and Wynn (2009) Alternative Energy Carriers and Powertrains to Reduce
GHG from Transport. Available from the project website at: www.eutransportghg2050.eu
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Valentine, H (2006) Alternatives in Aviation After Peak Oil. Available at: http://www.airliners.net/aviationarticles/read.main?id=98
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5
maritime and inland waterway vessels
5.1
Flettner rotors
Concept: Flettner rotors
Developer: Anton Flettner
Energy source: Wind energy
Development stage: Concept tested in the 1920s but the
did technology not take off. Being considered for
unmanned sea-spraying vessels.
Flettner ships are powered by the force created by wind velocity hitting a rotation object, known as the
Magnus effect. Rotorsails on the ship are directly connected to a propeller which uses the power from
the spinning towers to create an effect similar to the wings of an airplane to propel the ship forward. As
the first person to build a ship based on this principle in 1920s, the Flettner ship is named after Anton
Flettner who successfully crossed the Atlantic in his Flettner vessel, the Baden-Baden.
Original use in the 1920s and 1930s was abandoned after the Flettner rotor system was discovered to
be less efficient than conventional engines. Although the tall cylindrical towers produced substantially
more power than a conventional sail, they could not compete with motoroised vessels.
German wind-energy company Enercon developed the E-Ship 1 in 2008 which has four 25 metre high,
4 metre in diameter, rotating metal sailing rotors. Enercon‟s E-Ship 1 was planned to transport wind
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turbines to global customers and was designed to be able to cut fuel costs .
The Enercon E-Ship 1 was proposed to be able to cut fuel costs by 30-40% demonstrating a saving in
both costs and environmental impacts. Flettner technology uses the naturally occurring Magnus effect
and therefore offers an opportunity for maritime vessels of any size to be able to reduce their fuel
consumption and subsequent environmental impact.
The Flettner rotor concept was successfully tested in the 1920s and as a concept, uses the Magnus
effect to effectively cut fuel consumption. The technology came about at a time when fuel prices were
low and therefore did not take-off as a viable, cost effective option for ship design. As oil prices and
environmental concerns have become issues in the transport sector, regenerating Flettner rotor
technology could be a viable option for future ship designs.
Flettner technology and environmental concerns have prompted Professors John Latham and
Stephen Salter to consider how the Flettner design concept could be combined with climate change
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mitigation techniques to reduce global warming . Salter and Latham have proposed the building of
1,500 robotic rotor-ships to spray seawater into the air to enhance cloud reflectivity, thus creating a
cooling effect on the Earth.
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Marine Buzz (2008) E-Ship 1 with Sailing Rotors to Reduce Fuel Costs and to Reduce Emissions. Marine Buzz
Online. Available at: http://www.marinebuzz.com/2008/08/08/e-ship-1-with-sailing-rotors-to-reduce-fuel-costs-andto-reduce-emissions/
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Salter, S. Sortino, G. and Latham J.(2008) Sea-going hardware for the cloud albedo method of reversing global
warming. The Royal Society. 13 November 2008 vol. 366 no. 1882 3989-4006.
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Figure 10:
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Proposed ‘cloudseeders’ using Flettner rotor technology
The major barrier to the use of Flettner rotor technology in the past has been the abundance of cheap
fuel. In the coming decades, rising oil prices alongside stricter environmental legislation and targets for
the maritime sector have the potential to make this technology a sustainable and viable option for the
th
future. Although the technology was used in the early part of the 20 Century, testing on large modern
ships would need to be carried out.
The Flettner design is radically different from conventional maritime vessels, therefore posing a
financial barrier for the building of radically different new vessels as well as a psychological barrier in
changing the perception of industry and the public about the merits of new types of ships.
5.2
Windmill ships
Concept: Windmill ships
Developer: Albert Goudriaan & Aviation Enterprises Ltd
Energy source: Wind power
Development stage: Prototypes on smaller vessels have been built
including Revelation II catamaran by Aviation Enterprise Ltd but the
technology has not been tested on larger ships. Vertical-axis wind
turbines (as pictured, right) are a more stable option for implementing
on larger ships.
Windmills ships gain their energy from a windmill attached directly to a propeller. Unlike wind turbines
which transfer the rotation of the blades into electricity, the windmill ship uses direct wind power which
is mechanically transferred to the ships propeller without conversion losses.
The windmill can fully rotate, allowing the ship to move in any direction. The energy from the windmill
is generally transferred straight to the ships propeller but other hybrid designs can uses this energy in
combination with a Flettner rotor or keep it stored until it is needed.
A windmill catamaran has been successfully powered by propellers; however the implementation of
this technology on larger ships has not been carried out. The 36 foot catamaran, Revelation II (picture
above), is powered by three 20-foot long carbon fiber propellers on a 30 foot rotating mast and can
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travel in any direction whilst sailing .
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Latham, J (2007) Futuristic fleet of 'cloudseeders'. BBC News Online. Available at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/6354759.stm
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Lepisto, C (2007) “Windmill Sailboat: Sailing Against the Wind”. Treehugger Online; Science & Technology.
Available at: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/02/windmill_sailbo.php
43
The environmental sustainability of using wind energy to power larger ships would have the potential
to radically reduce the carbon footprint of shipping. Investments in windmill designs for ships are the
next essential step in establishing the scale to which windmills might be able to reduce the levels of
greenhouse gas emissions from maritime travel.
Windmill ships can be designed in three main ways: as a windmill coupled to a water propeller; as an
autogyro with no propeller coupling or as a water mill driving an air propeller. The first two
technologies have reached the test stage with some sources hopeful that windmills coupled with water
89 90
propellers could be launched by 2028
. Windmill technology is environmentally clean and well
suited for maritime travel where there are clear open surroundings for wind to travel.
Ship stability is an issue with windmill propulsion concepts which needs to be addressed when trying
to implement the technology on larger vessels. Ensuring the stability of a large vessel might make
Flettner rotors or windmills which spin around a vertical axis more suitable for these maritime vessels.
Research needs to be carried out to determine the best use of this technology as well as the lifecycle
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of the windmills to ensure that they are suitably durable in the marine environment .
5.3
Solar power ships
Concept: Solar power ships
Developer: Solar Sailor & Nippon Yusen K.K.
Energy source: Solar power (often combined with
wind energy)
Development stage: The technology is being used
at the moment in Australia and is being developed
for other regions globally.
Solar vehicles use the Photovoltaic (PV) cells in solar panels to convert the Sun's energy directly into
electrical energy. Solar power technology in ships can be implemented in vessels of any size, offering
the potential future rollout to everything from cruise ships to 500,000-tonne water transport tankers
and small unmanned military vessels.
Across Europe, around 150 solar powered passenger ships are currently in use in Germany, Italy,
Austria, Switzerland and the UK. In the UK, the Electric Boat Association‟s fleet includes a growing
number of solar boats, ranging from small lightweight craft designed to take just one or two crew to a
private 68-foot canal barge. The Serpentine Solar Shuttle, which operates in London‟s Hyde Park, is a
48 feet tourist boat powered entirely by 27 solar panels on its roof able of reaching a maximum speed
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of 5 miles per hour .
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The Australian company Solar Sailor specialises in noiseless and fumeless boats which use solar
sails to harness energy from the sun and wind. Solar panels charge the electric engines to offer better
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Satchwell, C.J. (1984) “The Evaluation of Wind Power for Commercial Vessels”. Southampton, UK, University
of Southampton. (Ship Science Reports, 16) Available at: http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/43274/
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Konrad, J (2009) “Skysails – Plus – Top 10 Green Ship Designs” gCaptain Online. Available at:
http://gcaptain.com/maritime/blog/ocean-kites-top-10-green-ship-designs/
91 Masamitsu, I (2001) Overviews of Windmill Ship Research Activities at Toba National College of Maritime
Technology. Toba Shosen Koto Senmon Gakko Kiyo (Japanese Journal). Volume no. 23; Page 1-9. (2001).
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BBC News (2006) “Serpentine solar boat to set sail” BBC News Online. Available at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/5189318.stm
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Solar Sailor (2010) Solar Sailor Online. Available at: http://www.solarsailor.com/solutions_gov.htm#aquatankers
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acceleration, quicker emergency stopping and easier handling of the ship. The sails are active and
can be adjusted to also act as traditional cloth sails in the wind. The Sydney Solar Sailor has received
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orders from Hong Kong and Germany as well as a tourist ferry operator running services in San
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Francisco Bay to the former prison on Alcatraz Island for a 600-seater vessel .
Although small boats have successfully used solar sails, the testing of the technology on larger
vessels has been less extensive. In 2008, Japan's biggest shipping line Nippon Yusen KK announced
the launch of the world's first cargo ship partly propelled by solar power aimed at reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. 328 solar panels (at a cost of US$1.68 million) capable of generating 40 kilowatts of
electricity were placed on top of a 60,000 tonne, 660-foot car carrier ship to be used by Toyota Motor
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Corporation .
The Solar Sailor is estimated to use 50% less fuel and therefore produce 50% less greenhouse gas
emissions. With the renewable elements of the technology, there is the potential to reduce emissions
by up to 100% when compared with fossil fueled boats. The greenhouse gas saving potential of using
solar power depends on the extent to which the energy used can be used as part of the vessel‟s
hybrid electrical propulsion systems, but is unlikely generate a significant proportion of the propulsive
power requirements.
Potential for further development of wider application/ larger scale
Solar and wind equipment are both well-developed renewable technologies which are used globally
for various non-travel uses, offering a market ready option for alternative maritime energy. This
technology is still being developed within transport modes though and is likely to be only used for
providing auxiliary power on larger commercial vessels. The extent to which a particular boat can run
on solar energy depends on its technical design, the amount of PV cells carried, the solar climate
where it is based, and its pattern of use. A private boat, used infrequently and mainly at weekends,
may get all its propulsion energy from the sun; but a commercial passenger boat offering scheduled
daily trips is unlikely to do so and would normally be “solar-assisted” only. In much larger freight
applications solar energy is only likely to be able to provide enough energy for auxiliary power, though
the potential for wind-assisted power is more significant (see sub-sections 5.1, 5.2 and 5.4).
A major barrier to the use of combined solar and wind technology is the storage of energy. To be able
to provide energy in the day and at night (as well as in summer and winter) ships will require an
improvement in the storage technology of the solar vessel. Those behind the successful Solar Sailor
believe that this hurdle will be overcome by 2020, allowing a greater freedom for long distance travel
and potentially eradicating the need to refuel a vessel at land.
The cost of photovoltaic systems is a barrier to their use on larger vessel which would require a huge
number of fully travel on their energy. The Serpentine Solar Shuttle cost €300,000 to build - 20% more
than a diesel boat of a comparable size. The Sydney Solar Sailor cost 50% more than a conventional
diesel engine powered ship. However, Solar Sail claims that the total life cost (including the capital
cost, the fuel cost, the maintenance cost and downtime costs) of this hybrid ship will be 50% lower
compared to a ship run on a conventional diesel engine.
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CNN (2007) “Green ships for blue highways”. Published on September 13, 2007. CNN News Online. Available
at: http://edition.cnn.com/2007/TECH/09/12/solar.ships/
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cnet News (2007) “Solar ships coming to San Francisco in 2009”. Published on November 7, 2007. cnet News
Online Available at: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-9813329-54.html
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Solar Daily (2008) Japan launches first solar cargo ship. Solar Daily Online. Available at:
http://www.solardaily.com/reports/Japan_launches_first_solar_cargo_ship_999.html
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5.4
Sails and Wind Assisted Towing
Concept: Sails for towing large ships
Developer: KiteShip & SkySails
Energy source: Wind
Development stage: First cargo ship
prototype (MS Beluga SkySails, shown right)
launched in December 2007.
Wind assisted travel has been used for centuries as a means of travelling across oceans and inland
waterways. Sails have traditionally been used on smaller vessels, such as yachts or sailing boats,
whereas larger ships, such as tankers have been powered by kerosene. However, wind assisted
power has not often been used in a hybrid form with fossil fuel alternatives.
Maritime greenhouse gas regulation has historically been permissive compared with land based
transport modes, due to the international nature of shipping and the debate over the allocation of
responsibility. However, there will be a significant need in the future to consider environmental
solutions to meet inevitable greenhouse gas targets.
KiteShip and SkySails are two companies that have developed sails/towing kites for maritime vessels.
KiteShip have designed and built small flexible fabric sails which can power speed-sailing yachts and
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small boats . This technology was inspired by kite surfing, where a small wheeled craft is pulled
around by a sail.
SkySails have developed and tested larger sails which are attached to freight ships, using highaltitude winds to help pull them across the ocean. This type of wind assisted power is designed for
large tanker size ships, unlike kiteships which tend to be for smaller vessels such as yachts. The sails
have up to 5,000 sq meters (45,000 sq ft) of surface area, and contain giant compressed air
compartments that keep them rigid. The sails are computer controlled and use an autopilot system to
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determine the optimal shipping routes .
Figure 11 shows the features of the MS Beluga SkySail, the first commercial container cargo ship
which is partially powered by a 160-square-metre (1,700 sq ft), computer-controlled kite.
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KiteShip (2010) KiteShip Corporation. Available at: http://www.kiteship.com/
SkySails (2009) Sky Sails for Cargo Ships. Available at: http://www.skysails.info/deutsch/produkte/skysails-fuerfrachtschiffe/
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Figure 11:
Features of the MS Beluga SkySails
Developer SkySails claim they can realise as much as 50% fuel savings with the installation of their
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sails , though figures from 10 – 35% are believed to be more typical (as discussed in Paper 3 of this
100
project ). After the installation of a sail, the fuel bill of the MS Beluga SkySails was cut by £800
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(US$1,560) a day . With stricter regulations for sulphur levels and CO2 emissions coming into force
from the International Monetary Fund (IMO) within the next decade, sky sails offer a renewable and
practical retrofitting opportunity for large ships to meet tougher targets.
The rising cost of fuel oil has been a catalyst for the resurgence of interest in wind power in shipping.
With US$100 a barrel in futures markets for oil, cutting fuel consumption with the use of a sky sail is
an attractive move for the shipping industry.
Sails similar to those developed by KiteShip and SkySails can be installed on cargo ships, fishing
trawlers and super yachts as well as smaller vessels such as yachts. The sail technology is available
and ready to be adopted by sailors, companies or ship owners that are willing to invest in a wind
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Gordon, J (2005) Sky Sails Promise Wind Energy for Fuel Reduction. Cars & Transportation. Available at:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005/08/sky_sails_promi.php
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Hazeldine, Pridmore, Nelissen and Hulskotte (2009) Technical Options to reduce GHG for non-Road Transport
Modes. Paper 3 produced as part of contract ENV.C.3/SER/2008/0053 between European Commission
Directorate-General Environment and AEA Technology plc; see website www.eutransportghg2050.eu
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Rosenberg, S (2008) “Gone with the wind on 'kite ship'” BBC News Online. Available at:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7205217.stm
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assisted system. Economic studies have estimated that the investment costs in skysails systems have
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been recouped in 3 to 5 years .
KiteShip and SkySail designs are both relatively simple techniques for pulling ships, however
modifications would be needed to adapt current ships, or new models would have to be designed to
use this technology. Other barriers include designing sails that cope with light as well as heavy winds,
training staff in specific skills for piloting, ensuring a system of routing the vessel based on favourable
winds and ensuring that equipment does not create drag, causing the ship to heel.
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AEA (2007) Low Carbon Commercial Shipping. Available at:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/technology/lctis/reportaeanewcastleunipdf.pdf
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6
6.1
replacing travel
Holographic presence
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Cisco Telepresence and Musion held the first live holographic video feed in 2007 by combining their
respective expertise in teleconferencing and 3D holographic video projection. The combination of
these technologies meant that individuals in the US could be portrayed on a stage in India to engage
in a live conversation, offering the potential for a technological presence anywhere in the world.
The easiest way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from travel is to travel at little as possible.
Reducing the amount of travel would be made easier if holographic technology was to become more
readily available. The scale of holographic take up is an enormous variable in the potential savings
which could be gained as a result of reduced travel due to holographic presence technology.
Holographic presence is currently used in the business world for international meetings but in the
future could be more commercially available as an alternative to travel. As well as the business sector,
holographic projection technologies could also be used in the following sectors to reduce the need for
travel: academia (holographic lecturers), legal (witnesses and lawyers), medical (specialist
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consultation) and politics (conferences and state visits) .
The primary barrier to this technology becoming a mainstream alternative to travel is cost and
availability at all ends of the meeting (with participants most likely at multiple locations). Holographic
presence technology would require facilities and equipment in the homes, schools and business of
those wishing to use it. As with all technological take-up, the initial cost of the technology will decrease
with time, however, for global businesses where the savings are likely to be the highest, the financial
savings would make the technology a financial as well as an environmental investment.
6.2
Virtual tourism
Virtual tours are currently available on the Internet and are a useful tool for viewing cities or often
University campuses. Similar technologies, such as Google Street View give individuals the ability to
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explore the visual surroundings of a distant location . Merging these facilities with 3D and virtual
reality technologies in the future, could give users an experience similar to a vacation, thus replacing
the need to travel.
Advanced virtual reality technology uses visual, audio and haptic technology. Haptic technology takes
advantage of the user's sense of touch by applying forces, vibrations, and motions to the body by
using tactile feedback technology. Wired gloves and omnidirectional treadmills can fully involve the
user in a virtual environment.
As a technology in its relative infancy, it is difficult to estimate how much of an impact virtual tourism,
virtual reality experiences and simulated reality could have on transport in the future.
103 Human Productivity Lab (2007) Cisco Experimenting with an On-Stage Telepresence Experience. Human Productivity Lab Online. Available
at: http://www.humanproductivitylab.com/archive_blogs/2007/11/15/cisco_experimenting_with_an_on_1.php
104 Winslow, L (2007) Holographic Projection Technologies of the Future "Killer Applications". May 5, 2007. Contributor: Ben Vietoris. Available
at: http://www.worldthinktank.net/pdfs/holographictechnologies.pdf
105
Google (2010) Google Street View. Available at: http://www.google.co.uk/help/maps/streetview/
49
Virtual experiences are currently used for pilot and combat training but not to the level that would
simulate and replace a holiday.
Technical limitations on creating a virtual world to rival that of human experiences include adequate
processing power, truly realistic image resolution and communication bandwidth. As technology
develops and becomes more cost effective with time, these barriers are likely to be overcome. Even
with the most advanced developments, whether the experiences of virtual tourism will be comparable
with that of a real journey is a substantial human psychological barrier.
Virtual reality research is extremely expensive and would need exorbitant amounts of funding before a
simulated reality concept could be realised. Unlike virtual reality, simulated reality would be
indistinguishable from reality, similar to brain-computer interface technologies portrayed in fiction
where a participant's consciousness is taken over by a computer and represented by an avatar in a
simulated world.
6.3
Teleportation
The process of teleportation is the dematerialising of an object at one point, and sending the details of
that object's precise atomic configuration to another location, where it will then be reconstructed. As a
form of travel, teleportation has the potential to eliminate the constraints of time and space, creating
„instant travel‟.
Up until the mid-1990s, views on teleportation were primarily drawn from the fictional world of 1960s
space travel television. In 1990s, the concept of quantum teleportation was realised when a photon
was successfully teleported by physicists at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). The
Caltech group was able to read the atomic structure of a photon, send this information across 1 metre
of coaxial cable and create a replica of the photon. As predicted, the original photon no longer existed
106
once the replica was made .
The lack of understanding about how the technology could be used for human travel means that
analysis of the environmental impacts for teleportation is inescapably speculative, although the
amount of energy likely to be needed for such transportation is theorised to be extremely large (i.e.
outweighing the energy produced from a physical journey).
Human teleportation would require an exponential advancement in teleportation technology to enable
matter to be transferred at the speed of light. In addition, in order to teleport humans, a machine which
28
can pinpoint and analyse the 10 atoms that make up the human body would be required. In order to
make teleportation more feasible, a form of biodigital cloning is likely to be necessary where the
original body „dies‟ and is cloned in a new location. Consequently, this technology is not a viable
option for consideration an alternative to travel, even the medium to long term.
Teleportation technology is still very much in its infancy and would require significant amounts of
research and advancement before becoming a viable mainstream option for future travel.
106
Bonsor, K (2000) "How Teleportation Will Work." 25 October 2000. HowStuffWorks.com. Available at:
http://science.howstuffworks.com/teleportation.htm
50
7
Discussion of the possible implications of
the for transport GHG emissions
In the following sections and tables in this chapter a summary is provided of the following information
for each of the transport technologies considered in earlier Sections 2 to 6:
1. The potential impact of the technology on greenhouse gases. Each technology is quantified as
having one of the following causes:
+++
++
+
─
──
───
A large increase in GHG levels
A medium increase in GHG levels
A small increase in GHG levels
A small decrease in GHG levels
A medium decrease in GHG levels
A large decrease in GHG levels
2. The potential scale of uptake in the short, medium and long term for each technology based
on the four stages outlined below:
Stage 1
Proof of concept / feasibility study
Stage 2
Prototype and pre-product testing
Stage 3
Significant design scale-up and production
Stage 4
Mainstream commercial availability
3. The potential for each technology to reach widespread deployment. This potential is
categorised as either low, medium or high based on the following definitions:
Low
Medium
High
51
There is not much chance of this
technology reaching widespread
deployment. The technology is likely to be
niche or deployed in limited situations.
This technology will reach a medium level
of deployment. The technology is likely to
be used for particular transport needs but
not as a widespread solution.
This technology is likely to experience
widespread deployment. The technology is
likely to be an important part of future
travel in extensive transportation
situations.
7.1
Road transport technologies
Table 4 and Figure 12 outline the potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions for each technology
as well as the scale of uptake and potential for widespread deployment. The potential for widespread
deployment varies greatly between the technologies with some offering solutions for commercial
availability of a broad scale, such as intelligent roads, whereas others offer solutions in specific areas,
such as dual mode transit and are therefore less likely to become a ubiquitous mode of travel.
Vehicle mass transit systems and compressed air technology are in early forms of technological
development but potentially could cause an increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the future if they
are not implemented in the right way. The wide scale testing of these technologies is needed to be
able to say whether they could be made more greenhouse gas efficient compared to alternatives that
could be implemented in similar timescales.
Intelligent roads, electric vehicle charging systems and road trains would require significant changes
to infrastructure by 2050 but could cut greenhouse gas emissions significantly. Similarly, by 2050,
trolleybus/trolley truck technology seems the most likely alternative vehicle-level technology to offer
the potential for significant savings in the short and long-term but also require significant investment in
infrastructure.
Table 4:
Summary of road transport technologies
Concept
Potential
Impact on
GHG
emissions
Potential stage of development
Current
2020
/2030
2050
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
Potential for
widespread
deployment
Electric trolley buses
──
4
4
4
4
Medium
Electric trolley trucks
──
2
4
4
4
Medium
In-road electric
vehicle charging
infrastructures
──
2
3
4
4
Medium
Self-drive vehicles
─
1
3
4
4
Medium
Dual mode transit
──
1
2
3
4
Low
Intelligent roads
─
2
3
4
4
Medium
Road trains
─
2
3
4
4
High
Vehicle Mass Transit
System (VMTS)
Compressed air
vehicles
─
2
3
4
4
Low
─ or +
(uncertain)
2
4
4
4
Low
─
2
4
4
4
Low
Other alternative
fuels (DME, DMF)
52
Figure 12:
Potential scale of uptake for future road transport technologies
Potential scale of uptake for future road transport technologies
4
Electric trolley buses
Electric trolley trucks
In-road electric vehicle
charging infrastructures
3
Stage
Self-drive vehicles
Dual mode transit
2
Intelligent roads
Road trains
1
Vehicle Mass Transit
System (VMTS)
Compressed air
vehicles
Other alternative fuels
(DME, DMF)
0
Current
2020/2030
2050
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
7.2
Land-based non-road transport technologies
as well as the scale of uptake and potential for widespread deployment. Maglev technology is the
most likely to have a potential reduction on greenhouse gas emissions for land-based non-road future
alternatives, although it seems unlikely to be taken up at a very high scale due to incompatibility with
conventional rail infrastructure. In contrast, hoverboards are likely to cause an increase in greenhouse
gases and serve as a niche and novel form of transport, as opposed to a mainstream option..
Table 5:
Summary of land-based non-road transport technologies
Potential
Impact on GHG
emissions
Concept
Current
───
3
2020
/2030
4
Underground
Maglev Systems
─
1
3
4
4
Low
Personal Rapid
Transit (PRT)
─
2
3
4
4
Medium
Hybrid tricycle
─
3
4
4
4
Low
Hoverboards
+
2
3
4
4
Low
Maglev
Figure 13:
53
2050
Potential for
widespread
deployment
4
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
4
Medium
Potential scale of uptake for future non-road land based transport technologies
Potential scale of uptake for future non-road land transport technologies
4
Maglev
3
Stage
Underground Maglev
Systems
2
Personal Rapid
Transit (PRT)
1
Hybrid tricycle
Hoverboards
0
Current
2020/2030
2050
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
7.3
Aviation technologies
By 2050, most aviation technologies discussed will still be being tested or prototyped, or in initial
deployment stages. BWB and to a slightly lesser extent wing-in-ground technology, which have both
had major investment from US and International organisations, are the most likely technologies to
reach commercial availability earlier on due to the fact that they offer reasonably widespread
deployment potential as technologies which could significantly contribute to aircraft designs of the
future (though the designs are incompatible and would most likely be used in different market
applications).
Whilst many technologies will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, space travel and personal flying
crafts of various sizes have the potential to make air travel a more accessible luxury. As a result, the
opportunity to travel at a faster speed to location in a personal flying device would cause an increase
in greenhouse gas emissions. In reality, these technologies are likely to be the slowest o reach
commercial availability, decreasing the chances of this negative impact.
as well as the scale of uptake and potential for widespread deployment.
54
Table 6:
Summary of aviation technologies
Concept
Potential
Impact on
GHG
emissions
Current
++
1
2020
/2030
2
──
─ ─ (vs air) or
++ (vs ship)
───
2
3
4
4
Medium
1
2
3
4
Medium
2
3
4
4
High
Joined wing
─
1
2
3
4
Medium
Oblique flying wing
+
1
2
3
4
Medium
+++
1
2
3
4
Low
++
1
2
3
4
Low
──
2
3
4
4
High
─
1
1
2
3
Low
Flying cars
Hybrid Airships
Wing-In-Ground
Blended Wing Body
Space travel
Personal Jetpacks &
Rocket Helicopters
Biofuels for aviation
Other alternative
fuels for aviation
(H2, electricity)
Figure 14:
2050
Potential for
widespread
deployment
3
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
4
Low
Potential scale of uptake for future aviation technologies
Potential scale of uptake for future aviation technologies
4
Flying cars
Hybrid Airships
3
Wing-In-Ground
Stage
Blended Wing Body
Joined wing
2
Oblique flying wing
Space travel
1
Personal Jetpacks &
Rocket Helicopters
Biofuels for aviation
0
Current
2020/2030
2050
55
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
7.4
Marine and inland waterway vessel technologies
It is important to recognise the benefits of mitigating the emissions of maritime vehicles. In 2006, there
were around 35,000 commercial vessels which transported a total of 7.4 billion tons of cargo around
107
the world . Wind assisted power is an ideal solution for reducing the greenhouse gases needed to
transport these goods without the need for expensive and time-consuming infrastructures and vessels
being built.
Four radical future technologies have been discussed offering varying degrees of greenhouse
reducing potential and potential for widespread deployment. Wind assisted towing/sails offers the
greatest potential savings for greenhouse gases alongside the fastest scale for uptake due to its
relative ease of implementation and potential to be retrofitted to existing large scale cargo ships. Table
7 and Figure 15 outline the potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions for each technology as well
as the scale of uptake and potential for widespread deployment.
Table 7:
Summary of marine and inland waterways technologies
Concept
Potential
Impact on
GHG
emissions
Current
Flettner rotors
──
1
2020
/2030
2
Windmill ships
─
2
3
4
4
Low
Solar power ships
─
2
2
3
4
Low
───
2
3
4
4
High
Wind Assisted
Towing
Figure 15:
2050
Potential for
widespread
deployment
3
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
4
Medium
Potential scale of uptake for future marine and inland waterways technologies
Potential scale of uptake for future maritime and inland waterways
technologies
4
3
Stage
Flettner rotors
Windmill ships
2
Solar power ships
1
Wind Assisted
Towing
0
Current
2020/2030
2050
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
107
56
UNCTAD (2007) UNCTAD‟s Review of Maritime Transport (2007 Edition) Page 5
7.5
Travel replacement technologies
Three radical options to replace travel were considered. Teleportation is the least likely of all the
technologies considered to become a viable option for travel, even beyond 2050. Even if viable it
could represent a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions due to the extreme energy
intensity needed for the process. Holographic presence appears the most likely option for replacing
future travel with successful tests having been carried out already. With all of these technologies, the
potential greenhouse gas impact, scale of uptake and scale of deployment are summarised in Table 8
and Figure 16, offering insight into the serious advancements needed before these technologies can
become viable replacements for travel in the future.
Table 8:
Summary of travel replacement technologies
Concept
Potential
Impact on
GHG
emissions
Potential for
widespread
deployment
Current
2020
/2030
2050
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
Holographic
presence
──
1
2
3
4
Medium
Virtual tourism
──
1
3
3
4
Low
Teleportation
+++
1
1
1
1
Low
Figure 16:
Potential scale of uptake for future travel replacement technologies
Potential scale of uptake for future travel replacement technologies
4
3
Stage
Holographic
presence
2
Virtual tourism
Teleportation
1
0
Current
2020/2030
2050
57
Beyond 2050
(near-term)
8
Summary of Key Findings and Conclusions
This section provides a brief summary overview of the main findings and conclusions for each mode of
transport.
Road Transport
There were more options that might be introduced and significantly contribute to overall GHG
emissions reductions by 2050 than in other modes;
Electric trolley bus/trolley trucks appear to offer the most likely near-term savings potential, but are
likely to be limited to relatively niche cases;
In-road electric charging infrastructure may be an important enabler of wider take-up of electric
vehicles, but is likely to be expensive and difficult to implement and there are concerns over
efficiency losses relative to stand-alone battery recharging;
Intelligent roads and road trains appear to offer potential for significant long-term efficiency
benefits, but it is uncertain whether they could be deployable to a significant extent by 2050.
Compressed air is yet to be proven in its benefit in terms of GHG over alternatives and it is unclear
whether there is a significant space for DME alongside the alternative options.
DMF may yet prove to be a more attractive biofuel substitute for petrol compared to ethanol, but
this is still uncertain and GHG benefits will be similarly linked to a sustainable supply of biomass.
Land-based non-road transport
Maglev appears to be the only technology that offers significant savings and will be deployable at
an early stage. However, it is unlikely to be able to make a significant contribution to overall
savings (in part because of incompatibility with existing rail infrastructure).
Personal rapid transport systems may offer reasonable niche GHG savings in the medium to long
term, but it seems unlikely they could be deployable in significantly broad scale to make a large
impact on total GHG.
Other alternatives, such as underground Maglev, hybrid tricycles and hoverboards appear unlikely
to be able to significantly contribute to GHG emissions reductions even in the long-term.
Aviation
Many of the radical technologies and concepts identified seemed unlikely to be deployable in
sufficient time/degree to make a significant contribution to reducing GHG emissions from aviation.
Hybrid airships, blended-wing-body (BWB) and wing-in-ground (WIG) airframe concepts could all
potentially lead to significant GHG savings in the medium to long-term. However, the WIG
concept could actually increase emissions where such aircraft replaced shipping rather than air
services (e.g. for rapid freight transportation).
Of the alternative fuel options identified, only biofuels offer the potential for significant savings in
the 2050 timeline.
In the very long term (likely beyond 2050) the flying car, space travel and personal jetpack/helicopter concepts could lead to increases in GHG emissions, but seem likely to be limited
to niche applications (at least initially).
Maritime
Concepts for waterborne transport were limited to mainly wind-based concepts, most of which are
likely to be deployable in the medium-term (or potentially near-term) and could offer significant
GHG savings.
Solar power is only likely to provide a significant contribution to GHG reduction in niche
applications or for auxiliary power in larger vessels in the long term.
58
Travel replacement
Holographic presence and virtual tourism may offer significant benefits in the long term, but their
widespread deployment is dependent on difficult to predict significant development and cost
reduction of holographic or virtual reality technology coupled with a change in attitudes to such
alternatives.
Teleportation does not seem likely even in the very long term, but would likely require massive
amounts of energy in relation to other forms of transport if it were possible.
59
9
References for images
Section 2.1
Friedrichstrasse (2009) Trolleybus. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Filobus_Genova_XXsett.JPG
Section 2.2
Christensen, B (2009) In-Road Electric Vehicle Charger. Published by Technovelgy.com. Available at:
http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-News.asp?NewsNum=2591
Section 2.3
Steve Jurvetson (2009) Wikimedia Commons. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Handsfree_Driving.jpg
Section 2.4.1
Meggar (2005) HiRail wheel. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HiRail.jpg
Section 2.4.2
Nekosuki600 (2008) JR Hokkaido Dual Mode Vehicle, in Naebo Factory. Wikimedia Commons.
Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:JRHokkaidoDualModeVehicle.jpg
Section 2.5
Mariordo Mario Roberto Duran Ortiz (2008) Automatic speed surveillance and enforcement
equipment. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:BSB_04_2008_412_ETS.JPG
Section 2.6
BBC News (2009) “'Road trains' get ready to roll” BBC News Online article from Monday, 9 November
2009. Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8349923.stm
Section 2.7
Arpingstone (2004) Articulated lorry. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Artic.lorry.arp.750pix.jpg
Section 2.8.3
MDI (2009) El monty. MDI Air Pod. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:MDI_Air_Pod_(1).JPG
Section 3.1 & 3.1.1
Maglev train, Pudong Station, Shanghai (2006) Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:A_maglev_train_coming_out,_Pudong_International_Airport,_Shangha
i.jpg
Section 3.2.1
ULTra PRT (2005) Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:ULTra_001.jpg#metadata
Section 3.2.2
Brian M. Powell (2003) Morgantown PRT - Beechurst Station. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Morgantown_PRT_-_Beechurst_Station.jpg
Section 3.3
T-Rex motorized reverse trike (2007) Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:T-rex-deals-gap-dragon-2007.jpg
60
Section 3.4
One man hovercrafts (2008) Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Onemanhovercrafts.JPG
Section 4.1
Aero Car (2005) Wikimedia Commons. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Taylor-AerocarIII.jpg
Section 4.2
Luftschiff (2003) Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Luftschiff_small.jpg
Section 4.3
Sea Eagle Flying (2008) Wikimedia Commons. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wig18.gif
Section 4.4.1
NASA BWB (Blended Wing Body) X-48 Aircraft (2006) Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NASA_BWB.jpg
Section 4.4.2
Drawing of a special type of winglets, called spiroids (2007) Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Spiroids.png
Section 4.4.3
Adrian Pingstone (2003) Wikimedia Commons. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:USAF_B2_Spirit.jpg
Section 4.5
Rokits XPrize gallery (2004) Spaceship One in flight. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Spaceship_One_in_flight_1.jpg
Section 4.6
Anthony Appleyard (2005) Jetpack with wings. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jetpack_with_wings.jpg
Section 5.1
Wessmann (2006) Rotorship Barbara. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rotorship_Babara.jpg
Section 5.2
Toshihiro Oimatsu (2006) Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Savonius_wind_turbine.jpg
Section 5.3
Wattewyl (2008) RA 66 Helio on the Untersee, a part of Lake Constance. The solar-powered
catamaran is based in Radolfzell. Wikimedia Commons. Available at:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Untersee-RA66_Helio.jpg
Section 5.4
Department of Defense photo by the Beluga Group (2008) MV Beluga SkySails. Wikimedia Commons.
Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:MV_Beluga_Skysails.jpg
61

Executive summary - EU Transport GHG: Routes to 2050

Transcription

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