Arizona Solar Jobs Census 2014

The Solar Foundation® (TSF) is a national 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization whose mission
is to increase understanding of solar energy through strategic research that educates the
public and transforms markets. In 2010, TSF conducted its first National Solar Jobs Census
report, establishing the first credible solar jobs baseline and verifying that the solar
industry is having a positive impact on the U.S. economy. Using the same rigorous, peerreviewed methodology, TSF has conducted an annual Census in each of the last five years to
track changes and analyze trends.
This Arizona Solar Jobs Census 2014 report is an offshoot of TSF’s National Solar Jobs Census
2014 effort. Research partners for the Census 2014 effort include:
 The George Washington University Solar Institute;
 Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA);
 U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot program and the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (NREL) and;
 Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC).
Other sponsors and key contributors to this year’s Census include: Energy Foundation,
William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, Tilia Fund, SolarCity, SunPower, SunEdison, GTM
Research/SEIA for providing survey respondents with the U.S. Solar Market Insight: 2013
YIR report, and Cornell University’s School of Industrial Labor Relations for validating the
original Census methodological framework.
We also want to thank all the Arizona solar employers that participated in the survey. Your
responses were critical in providing us with accurate and timely data.
For questions or comments about this report, please contact either:
Andrea Luecke, President and Executive Director
The Solar Foundation®
505 9th Street NW, Suite 800 Washington DC 20004
202-469-3750; [email protected]; www.TheSolarFoundation.org
Philip Jordan, Principal and Vice President
BW Research Partnership
50 Mill Pond Drive Wrentham, MA 02093
508-384-2471; [email protected]; www.bwresearch.com
Please cite this publication when referencing this material as “Arizona Solar Jobs Census
2014, The Solar Foundation, available at: www.tsfcensus.org”
2
About the Arizona Solar Jobs Census 2014
This report includes information about all types of Arizona companies engaged in the
analysis, research and development, production, sales, installation, and use of all solar
technologies – ranging from solar photovoltaics (PV), to concentrating solar power (CSP),
to solar water heating systems for the residential, commercial, industrial, and utility
market segments.
The findings presented herein are based on rigorous survey efforts throughout the month
of November 2014 that include 4,000 telephone calls and over 250 emails to known and
potential solar establishments across Arizona, resulting in a margin of error of +/-3.0% at a
95% confidence interval. Unlike economic impact models that generate employment
estimates based on economic data or jobs-per-megawatt (or jobs-per-dollar) assumptions,
The Solar Foundation’s Solar Jobs Census series provides statistically valid and current data
gathered from actual employers. This analysis also purposefully avoids artificially inflating
its results with questionable multiplier effects often found in analyses of other industries.
About The Solar Foundation®
The Solar Foundation® (TSF) is an independent 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization whose
mission is to increase understanding of solar energy through strategic research that
educates the public and transforms markets. TSF is considered the premier research
organization on the solar workforce, employer trends, and the economic impacts of solar. It
has provided expert advice to leading organizations such as the National Academies, the
Inter-American Development Bank, the U.S. Department of Energy, and others during a
time of dynamic industry growth and policy and economic uncertainty.
While TSF recognizes that solar energy is a key part of our energy future, it is committed to
excellence in its aim to help people fairly and objectively gauge the value and importance of
these technologies.
About BW Research Partnership
BW Research is widely regarded as the national leader in labor market research for
emerging industries and clean energy technologies. In addition to the Census series, BW
Research has conducted rigorous solar installation and wind industry labor market
analysis for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, wind energy and energy retrofit
studies for the Natural Resources Defense Council, a series of comprehensive clean energy
workforce studies for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Illinois, Vermont, Florida,
Pennsylvania, Iowa, and California, and numerous skills and gap analyses for community
colleges, workforce investment boards, state agencies, and nonprofit organizations.
BW Research provides high-quality data and keen insight into economic and workforce
issues related to renewable energy, energy efficiency, transportation, recycling, water,
waste and wastewater management, and other environmental fields. The principals of the
firm are committed to providing research and analysis for data-driven decision making.
3
Solar installations nationwide continued to expand at a record pace in 2014, with the solar
industry expected to have installed 7,200 megawatts (MW) of new solar capacity
throughout the year, representing an increase of 40% over the annual installed capacity
seen in 2013.1 Accompanying this capacity growth was a significant increase in the size of
the national solar workforce, which accounted for 173,807 workers as of November 2014,
or 21.8% growth in employment over the previous year. Employers remain optimistic
about continued growth in the short term – expecting to add over 36,000 workers in 2015
– but are anxious about the impact expected federal policy changes will have on solar
employment.
As with the nation as a whole and the majority of other states, Arizona has shared in the job
creation success of the solar industry in the past year. As of November 2014, Arizona
employs 9,170 solar workers, representing a 7.2% increase in employment over the
previous year. This is a welcome reversal of the results of the 2013 installment of this
report, which found solar employment in the state decreasing by nearly 13% year over
year. The Arizona solar industry is bullish about continued growth, expecting to increase
the size of the state solar workforce by over 21% over the next twelve months.
The technical potential for solar in Arizona is immense. If fully leveraged, the state could
produce over 24.5 billion MWh of electricity each year2 – over 300 times the amount all
utilities in the state sold to their customers in 2012.3 This potential puts Arizona third in
the nation in terms of total solar potential, behind Texas and New Mexico. Arizona could
easily double the annual installed solar capacity in each of residential, commercial, and
utility-scale segments in pursuit of this potential, which could create at least 3,000 new
SEIA Solar Market Insight Q3 2104
National Renewable Energy Laboratory U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potential: A GIS-Based Analysis
available at www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51946.pdf
3 See: “Arizona Electricity Profile 2012” from U.S. Energy Information Administration at
www.eia.gov/electricity/state/arizona/
1
2
4
jobs in the solar industry. While solar presents a significant energy opportunity for the
state, increased use of select solar technologies can also play a key role in helping the state
achieve its water conservation goals. For example, every megawatt-hour (MWh) of
electricity from natural gas that is offset by solar photovoltaics (PV) saves over 200 gallons
of water, making water conservation another important lens through which to view the
value of solar energy. 4
Figure 1: Annual Solar Capacity Additions, 2010-2016E
800.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
Residential (PV)
Non-residential (PV)
Utility (PV)
Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)
2016E
Source: SEIA/GTM Research Solar Market Insight Q3 2014
As more of this technical potential is tapped, the strong relationship between installed
capacity and solar employment will help increase the number of jobs available in the
Arizona solar industry. In Arizona’s case, however, this relationship may not be
immediately clear. Due to the dominance of the utility market segment over the past
several years, employment figures in the state remain highly sensitive to project
development and construction timelines. For example, The Solar Foundation’s Arizona
Solar Jobs Census 2013 noted that although a 280 MW concentrating solar power facility
was completed that year, construction was finished before the Census survey period,
meaning these jobs were included the year prior but not the year of completion. Though
much less new capacity is expected to have come online in this market segment in 2014,
the state is expected to install three times more utility-scale solar in 2015. Due to lengthy
Macknick, J. Newmark, R., Heath, G, and Hallett, K C. (2012). Operational water consumption and withdrawal
factors for electricity generating technologies: a review of existing literature. Environmental Research Letters,
7 (2012). http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/045802
4
5
construction timelines, it is likely that installers are already at work on these projects,
causing them to be reflected in 2014 employment figures though these projects will not be
completed until the end of this year.
Figure 2: 2013-2015 Large Scale Solar Projects in Arizona5
Though new capacity additions in 2014 are expected to have been down year over year
overall in the state, industry projections show the residential market segment last year was
actually up 30% over 2013.6 As labor efficiencies are typically lower for installations in this
segment, each additional megawatt installed requires a greater number of workers as
compared with non-residential or utility projects.
This increase in residential capacity may have been driven by ripple effects from policy
changes in the previous year and the growing ability for customers to finance solar without
state incentives. Reforms to net metering policies made in 2013 included a grandfathering
provision that would allow projects to qualify for the previous policy if interconnection
applications for these systems were submitted by the end of that year. The large spike in
applications created in the second half of 2013 by this provision produced a backlog of
projects to be completed in early 2014,7 putting new residential installed capacity in the
first quarter up nearly 40% over the same period in the previous year.8
At the same time, 2014 saw a significant increase in the percentage of new residential
installations being financed without state incentives. At the end of 2013, only about one in
For additional data, please see appendix.
SEIA Solar Market Insight Q3 2014
7 Id.
8 SEIA Solar Market Insight Q1 2014
5
6
6
seven new systems in this market segment were installed without incentives. In each
quarter since, however, over half of all new residential installations were financed
independent of this support.9 This is notable because more than nine in ten solar systems
were reported to be financed (or leased) as opposed to purchased outright in Arizona in
2014.
Annual installed capacity in all market segments in both 2015 and 2016 is expected to be
higher than those experienced in 2014, contributing to employers’ optimism about hiring
in the near term, with Arizona companies expecting to add nearly 2,000 new workers in the
coming year. Employers are more apprehensive about continued growth, however, once
scheduled changes to the 30% investment tax credit (ITC) take effect in 2017. This policy
change is expected to reduce new capacity additions across all market segments, with
utility-scale projects to be hit hardest – where new capacity in 2017 is expected to decrease
by 75% over the previous year.10 Given the strong link between installed capacity and solar
jobs, many employers expect to reduce their workforce after the current ITC is terminated.
For example, a quarter of the installation companies in Arizona, which represent over 50%
of all solar jobs in the state, expect to lay off staff and/or subcontractors if the current ITC
is not extended.
Though the looming expiration of the 30% ITC is an issue faced by solar companies across
the nation, there are other potential challenges – as well as possible opportunities – in
Arizona that may impact solar employment. The end of 2014 saw indications that the
Arizona Corporation Commission (ACC) may again consider a repeal of the distributed
generation requirement of the state Renewable Energy Standard (which currently requires
that 4.5% of total retail sales in 2015 be derived from these resources).11 During the year,
the Arizona Department of Revenue also ruled that systems financed via third-party
ownership are no longer eligible for a property tax exemption, though customers owning
their systems outright will still qualify. Should this decision stand, residential customers
can expect to pay around $150 per year – and commercial customers much more – starting
in October.12
Late 2014 also saw the Salt River Project (SRP) – the second-largest utility in the state –
propose a package of rate changes that stand to increase utility bills for solar customers by
approximately $50 per month.13 These proposed changes may be especially significant
given geographic shifts observed in market segments following the changes made by
Arizona Public Service Company (APS) to its net metering program, with more residential
installations in 2014 shifting from APS to the SRP service territory.14 Combined, APS and
SEIA Solar Market Insight Q3 2014
Id.
11 See: “Rooftop-solar rules on table again” from AZ Central at
www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/2014/12/27/rooftop-solar-rules-table/20933619/
12 See: “Have solar panels? Here are 5 things that could affect your finances” from AZ Central at
www.azcentral.com/story/money/business/2015/01/04/solar-panels-things-affect-finances/21272993/
13 See: “Salt River Project Looks to Tax Solar: Could It Stimulate Innovation on the Grid?” from Greentech
Media at www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/salt-river-project-is-latest-utility-to-tax-solar
14 SEIA Solar Market insight Q3 2014
9
10
7
SRP serve around 70% of all Arizona electricity customers.15 Should the proposed SRP
changes take effect, it may negatively impact the ability or willingness of solar companies
to do business in these areas. Additionally, the significantly reduced potential customer
base may adversely affect customer demand for solar – and thus company demand for new
workers.
Certain Arizona utilities, however, have taken steps to increase the amount of solar in their
territories. In the final days of 2014, the ACC allowed APS and Tucson Electric Power (TEP)
to proceed with plans to own 10 MW and 3.5 MW, respectively, of rooftop solar power.16
EIA Table 10: 2012 Utility Bundled Retail Sales – Total available at
www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table10.pdf
16 See: “Arizona Utilities Get Approval to Own Rooftop Solar” from Greentech Media at
www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/arizona-utilites-get-the-go-ahead-to-own-rooftop-solar
15
8
The Arizona solar industry employs 9,170 workers at 637 establishments throughout the
state and is ranked #3 in jobs and #2 as a percentage of overall employment. Statewide
solar employment grew by 7.2% - which is 1.6% faster than expected – since Census
2013, representing the addition of about 600 jobs over the twelve months covered by
the survey. By comparison, last year’s Arizona Solar Jobs Census anticipated only 475 new
solar workers over the period, nearly 140 fewer than were actually added. As a
comparison, the overall economy in the state only grew by 1.8% from 2013 to 2014.17
Employers are very optimistic about 2015, expecting to add nearly 2,000 new solar
workers, at an annual growth rate of 21.2%. Of the 9,170 solar workers in Arizona, 91.7%
spend all of their time focused on solar work.
Figure 3: Arizona Solar Employment – 2013 – 2015
15,000
10,000
8,558
9,170
11,101
5,000
0
2013
2014
2015 (Projected)
Employees spending at least 50% of their time
on solar-related work
17
Economic Modelling Specialists, International, 2014.3
9
While the state growth rate for solar jobs in 2014 is significantly slower than the national
average (where solar employment grew by 21.8%), the fact that the Arizona solar industry
added a greater-than-expected number of jobs is significant, as the study period saw a
sharp decline in employment in the Project Developer/Utility sector, which shed nearly
1,300 jobs – a drop of 73.7%. These declines were more than offset by a very strong
installation sector that added more than 1,500 jobs, growing year over year by 45.9%.
Table 1: Arizona Solar Employment by Sector – 2013 – 2015
2013
2014
2013-2014
Growth
Projected
2015
Projected
2014-2015
Growth
Installation
3,311
4,831
45.9%
6,562
35.8%
Manufacturing
1,465
1,884
28.6%
1,970
4.6%
Sales & Distribution
1,472
1,362
-7.5%
1,426
4.7%
Project Developers
1,874
492
-73.7%
512
4.1%
436
602
38.1%
632
5.0%
8,558
9,170
7.2%
11,102
21.1%
All Other
Total
The federal and state policy landscape may help to explain both the rise in installation
employment and decline in project development. In order to qualify for the 30% federal
investment tax credit, solar installations must be “placed in service” (i.e., completed and
operational) by December 31, 2016. Given this, few large utility-scale solar power plants
with development timelines that exceed the two years remaining to take advantage of the
incentive at its current level are being planned at present, resulting in a reduced need for
project development staff. Many utility-scale projects that will be completed in time to
benefit from the 30% ITC are already under construction, suggesting that though these
projects will not be completed until 2015 (when 315 MW of utility-scale PV is expected to
come online in Arizona) or 2016 (115 MW), the Census is already capturing some of the
employment impacts of these projects in the installation sector. After 2016, only a few
dozen megawatts of utility-scale projects are expected.18 While these projects may be
providing some work for project developers now, there is much less demand for these solar
projects and workers going forward.
In addition, near-term needs for utility-scale solar under the Arizona Renewable Energy
Standard have been met by some of the largest utilities covered by the policy. In its most
recent RES compliance report, Arizona Public Service Company (APS) noted it had derived
6.8% of its 2013 retail electric sales from renewables, though it was only required to
18
SEIA Solar Market Insight Q3 2014
10
produce 4% that year.19 Under the current compliance schedule, this 6.8% is nearly enough
to meet the utility’s obligations through 2017. Similarly, Tucson Electric Power Company
(TEP), the second-largest utility covered by the RES, had 5.6% of its 2013 sales coming
from renewable energy, almost enough to carry it through 2016.20
In the survey for the national and state Census 2014 reports, solar establishments were
asked about the percentage of their revenues attributed to solar. More than one in three
receive all of their revenues from solar, and a majority (55%) earn at least 50% of their
revenues from solar activities. This is effectively unchanged since Census 2013.
Figure 4: Company Revenues Attributed to Solar
80%
60%
40%
43.0%
36.0%
19.0%
20%
2.0%
0%
All of it (100%)
Most but not all (50% to Less than half (1% to
99%)
49%)
DK/NA
APS 2013 Renewable Energy Standard Annual Compliance Report, available at
www.azcc.gov/Divisions/Utilities/Electric/REST%20PLANS/2013/2013%20APS%20REST.pdf?d=804
20 TEP 2013 REST Compliance Report, available at
www.azcc.gov/Divisions/Utilities/Electric/REST%20PLANS/2013/2013%20TEP%20REST.pdf?d=266
19
11
The overwhelming majority (91%) of all solar systems were financed opposed to
purchased outright. This is higher than the national average and also suggests more pureplay firms in Arizona that offer innovative financing for systems.
As noted previously in this and prior installments of the Arizona Solar Jobs Census, solar
companies have dealt with policy uncertainty at the state level over the past several years.
As part of the 2014 Census effort, employers were asked what employment changes they
are expecting once the 30% federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) reduces to 10% for
commercial projects and is eliminated for residential installations after 2016. At the
national level, only 40% of companies expect to not be impacted by this change, at least in
the context of employment. In Arizona, approximately 35% of solar employers expect to lay
off staff and contractors in 2017 once the current 30% ITC expires.
Figure 5: Employment Impact of ITC Expiration
17.5%
No impact
8.8%
5.3%
21.1%
We expect to
increase our
workforce in 2017
We expect to lay
off staff
We expect to lay
off subcontractors
47.4%
We expect to lay
off staff and
subcontractors
Arizona solar employers continue to hire people from diverse backgrounds. Hiring of
Hispanic/Latino workers and veterans over the past year increased, while a slightly lower
proportion of women, African-Americans, and Asian/Pacific Islanders were represented in
the Arizona solar workforce in 2014 as compared with the previous year. This may simply
be due to fewer hires at project developers, which reported the highest percentage of
minority and female hiring in the National Solar Jobs Census 2014.
12
Table 2: Demographics of Recent Arizona Solar Hires
2013
2014
AZ
Workforce21
Latino or Hispanic
28.5%
30.8%
30.4%
Veterans of the U.S. Armed Forces
11.7%
14.9%
n/a
Women
18.5%
11.1%
46.1%
Asian or Pacific Islanders
4.3%
3.6%
3.5%
African-American
4.5%
3.1%
4.2%
The following pages include detailed breakdowns by sector. While there are a number of
firms and workers in manufacturing, project development, and other activities, these
sectors had insufficient responses to provide statistically significant data.
21
Economic Modeling Specialists, International, 2014.3
13
The installation sector now represents more than half of all solar employment in Arizona,
employing 4,831 workers. This figure has risen sharply since Census 2013, with employers
adding nearly 1,500 solar workers over the time period, representing annual employment
growth of 45.9%.
Figure 6: Employment Growth, Installation Sector
10,000
6,562
4,831
5,000
3,311
0
2013
2014
2015 (Projected)
Employees spending at least 50% of their time
on solar-related work
As with 2013, the majority of these firms work with photovoltaic products. While solar
water heating installers are about the same prevalence in Arizona as across the country, a
much higher percentage of the solar water heating installers in Arizona are pure-play firms.
14
Table 3: Solar Firms by Technology – Installation
2013
2014
Photovoltaic
66.7%
79.6%
Water heating
43.1%
26.5%
9.7%
8.2%
13.9%
8.2%
Concentrating solar
power
Other
Photovoltaic installers report that they primarily work on residential systems.
Approximately one in three are involved in commercial projects, and just over 10% install
utility-scale systems (these are often subcontractors to larger project developers).
Table 4: Solar Firms by Size of Project
Primary PV Project
Residential
59.0%
Commercial
30.8%
UtilityScale
10.3%
About a quarter (25%) of solar installers in Arizona expect to lay off staff and/or
subcontractors if the ITC is not renewed. As installation represents the largest industry
sector in the state, this could result in a sharp decline in total statewide solar employment.
Figure 7: Employment Impact of ITC Expiration – Installation
No impact
45.0%
5.0%
We expect to increase
our workforce in 2017
We expect to lay off staff
20.0%
We expect to lay off staff
and subcontractors
30.0%
15
Sales and Distribution employment declined by 7.5% year over year, representing a drop of
110 workers. As shown in Figure 8 below, employers in this sector expect employment to
rebound almost completely to 2013 levels by October 2015.
Figure 8: Sales and Distribution Employment Growth
2,000
1,500
1,472
1,362
1,426
1,000
500
0
2013
2014
2015 (Projected)
Employees spending at least 50% of their time
on solar-related work
16
Similar to their installer counterparts, Sales and Distribution firms focus predominantly on
photovoltaic systems, but have a significantly greater focus on water heating than their
national peers.
Table 5: Establishments by Technology – Sales and Distribution
2013
2014
Photovoltaic
84.0%
65.4%
Water heating
40.0%
46.2%
Concentrating solar
power
12.0%
0.0%
Other
12.0%
19.2%
Sales firms’ expectations regarding the scheduled changes to the ITC are similar to
respondents in other sectors and across the country, with a majority expecting to lay off
staff and/or contractors.
Figure 9: Investment Tax Credit Expiration Expected Employment Impact – Sales
15.8%
10.5%
No impact
We expect to lay
off staff
26.3%
We expect to lay
off subcontractors
47.4%
We expect to lay
off staff and
subcontractors
17
Approximately 850 solar workers were hired in Arizona, with about 470 being newly
created jobs, 250 to replace retiring workers, and 130 were existing employees that were
given new solar responsibilities. This section includes detailed findings from the survey,
including profiles of these new hires.
Solar establishments in Arizona report only moderate difficulty finding the workers they
need, with 63% reporting that it is “somewhat difficult” to find qualified workers and only
13% reporting that it is “very difficult.” These findings show that employers in Arizona are
having less difficulty finding workers than their peers across the nation, where over 17%
report having a “very difficult” time hiring new employees. Arizona’s comparative ease in
hiring might be due to the slower solar-related employment growth in the state.
Figure 10: Employer Difficulty Hiring
Very difficult
63.0%
23.9%
Somewhat difficult
Not at all difficult
13.0%
18
There were no significant differences regarding Arizona employers’ reported difficulty
hiring by sector from the national averages.
At the same time, installer and sales wages are significantly lower in Arizona as compared
to the national average. This may be due to the lower demand for workers and relative ease
of finding qualified workers. Also, Arizona employers are likely to use on-the-job training
(88% report having formal OJT programs), and 72% report that they value credentials for
solar workers.
Table 6: Solar Wages
Arizona
U.S.
Installer
$17.22
$24.01
Salesperson
$33.75
$36.25
Production/ Assembly
$16.17
$17.60
Designer
$29.39
$36.16
Experience matters in Arizona, though when asked about the education and history of
professional experience they seek in recent hires, employers here reported much lower
requirements as compared to their peers across the country. This lower barrier to entry
may also explain the lower wages reported to be paid in Arizona.
Table 7: Solar Workforce Profiles
Difficulty hiring
OJT
Credentials
% Very / Some / Not
% Yes / No
% Yes / No
Arizona
13 / 71 / 17
88 / 12
72 / 28
United States
17 / 60 / 23
79 / 21
61 / 39
19
Given the recent state-level focus on developing a strategy for a sustainable water supply
throughout the state – as demonstrated through the work of the Arizona Water Resources
Development Commission22 and the Arizona Department of Water Resources 23– and in
keeping with The Solar Foundation’s mission to increase understanding of solar through
research pertaining to all aspects of the industry and technology (not just jobs and
workforce), this report presents an opportunity for a high-level examination of the water
savings potential of solar energy in the state.
An original analysis prepared for this report found that, should all Arizona utilities
meet the requirements of the current Renewable Energy Standard,24 nearly 1.3
billion gallons of water could be saved with solar photovoltaics in the year 2040.25
Cumulative water savings over the 2014-2040 period would be approximately 26.7 billion
gallons.
WRDC Water Resources Development Commission Final Report at
www.azwater.gov/AzDWR/WaterManagement/WRDC_HB2661/documents/WRDCFinalReportVolumeI.pdf
23 ADWR Arizona’s Next Century: A Strategic Vision for Water Supply Sustainability at
www.azwater.gov/AzDWR/Arizonas_Strategic_Vision/documents/ArizonaStrategicVisionforWaterResources
Sustainability_May2014.pdf
24 Note that not all utilities are currently bound by this policy. Approximately 60% of Arizona customers are
served by utilities covered by the RES. With the inclusion of Salt River Project, which has its own goal of
producing 20% of its 2020 retail electricity sales from sustainable resources, nearly all customers in the state
(96%) are accounted for.
25 Based on the following key assumptions: 0.9% annual increase in electricity sales from EIA data from 2012;
use of solar PV to satisfy the entire distributed generation requirement and 20% of remaining non-DG
requirement under the RES, and; water savings of 204 gallons per megawatt-hour (the net of median water
consumption requirements for solar PV systems and combined cycle gas turbines, from Table 7).
Concentrating solar power (CSP) was excluded due to its comparatively high water consumption
requirements and declining use relative to solar photovoltaics.
22
Header Photo: Watson Lake, Arizona
Credit: Benjamin Cody under Creative Commons
20
Table 8: Water Consumption Rates for Selected Electricity Generating Technologies26
Cooling
Method
Fuel Type
Solar PV
N/A
Concentrating Solar Power
(CSP)
Median Water
Consumption (gal./MWh)
Technology
1
Utility-scale PV
Tower
Trough
906
Power Tower
786
Linear Fresnel
1000
Nuclear
Tower
Generic
672
Natural Gas
Tower
Combined Cycle
205
Steam
826
Combined Cycle with Carbon
Capture and Storage (CCS)
393
Generic
687
IGCC
380
IGCC with CCS
549
Coal
Tower
Figure 11: Annual Water Savings Potential from Solar Photovoltaics
1,400.00
MILLIONS OF GALLONS
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
2014
2020
2026
2032
2038
Partial list of technologies taken from:
Macknick, J. Newmark, R., Heath, G, and Hallett, K C. (2012). Operational water consumption and withdrawal
factors for electricity generating technologies: a review of existing literature. Environmental Research Letters,
7 (2012). http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/045802
26
21
To help put this figure into perspective and underscore the water savings potential of solar,
1.3 billion gallons of water is approximately equivalent to:
4,000 acre-feet of water, which is about five times the volume of
Rainbow Lake in Navajo County (800 acre-feet),27 or 80% of
the storage capacity of Watson Lake near Prescott
(4,900 acre-feet)28
Water required to grow nearly
110 million pounds of
lettuce in Yuma (a region that
Capacity of
72,000
residential swimming
pools.
accounts for nearly 90 percent of
the winter lettuce produced in the
country) worth nearly $24
million.29
Enough water required to meet
Amount of water
total annual
freshwater needs for
20,000 people.30
the
needed to produce
722,000 pounds
of beef.
Capturing these water savings appears well within the state’s grasp, as this analysis
assumes full compliance with the current Arizona Renewable Energy Standard and solar
carve-out by all utilities. Efforts beyond this minimum standard will increase the value of
solar in helping the state meet its water conservation goals.
Arizona Department of Environmental Quality Total Maximum Daily Load For Rainbow Lake, available at
www.azdeq.gov/environ/water/assessment/download/rainbow_tmdl.pdf
28 Arizona Department of Water Resources Arizona Water Atlas, Volume 8, available at
www.azwater.gov/azdwr/StatewidePlanning/WaterAtlas/ActiveManagementAreas/documents/Volume_8_P
RE_final.pdf
29 The Hamilton Project/Brookings Institution and Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment Shopping
for Water: How the Market Can Mitigate Water Shortages in the American West, available at
http://waterinthewest.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/market_mitigate_water_shortage_in_west_paper_glen
non_final.pdf
30 See: “Arizona’s Water: Uses and Sources” from The Arizona Experience at
http://arizonaexperience.org/people/arizonas-water-uses-and-sources
27
22
Figure 12: Map of State Legislative District Employment
23
Table 8: State Senate District Employment
District
Representative
2014
Emp.
Women
African
American
Latino/
Hispanic
Asian/
Pacific
Islander
Veterans
Members
of a
Union
2013
Emp.
%
Change
YOY
1
Steve Pierce
394
41
11
117
21
63
1
362
8.8%
2
Andrea Dalessandro
177
19
5
53
10
29
0
163
8.6%
3
Olivia Cajero
Bedford
114
13
4
35
4
17
1
110
3.6%
4
Lynne Pancrazi
10
1
0
3
1
2
0
9
11.1%
5
Kelli Ward
349
37
10
103
19
56
1
321
8.7%
6
Sylvia Allen
377
40
11
111
20
61
1
346
9.0%
7
Carlyle Begay
57
6
2
17
3
9
0
52
9.6%
8
Barbara McGuire
49
5
1
14
3
8
0
45
8.9%
9
Steve Farley
257
29
8
79
9
38
3
248
3.6%
10
David Bradley
83
9
3
25
3
12
1
80
3.8%
11
Steve Smith
123
13
3
36
7
20
0
113
8.8%
12
Andy Biggs
346
45
13
84
8
47
7
333
3.9%
13
Don Shooter
304
32
8
90
16
49
0
279
9.0%
14
Gail Griffin
249
26
7
74
14
40
0
229
8.7%
15
Nancy Barto
576
61
16
171
31
93
1
529
8.9%
16
David Farnsworth
149
19
6
36
4
20
3
132
12.9%
17
Steve Yarbrough
264
34
10
64
6
36
6
246
7.3%
18
Jeff Dial
536
69
21
130
13
72
11
517
3.7%
19
Lupe Contreras
300
39
12
73
7
41
6
280
7.1%
20
Kimberly Yee
299
39
12
73
7
40
6
278
7.6%
21
Debbie Lesko
195
25
8
47
5
26
4
173
12.7%
22
Judy Burges
171
22
7
42
4
23
4
148
15.5%
23
John Kavanagh
867
112
34
210
21
117
18
843
2.8%
24
Katie Hobbs
369
48
14
89
9
50
8
343
7.6%
25
Bob Worsley
400
52
15
97
10
54
8
373
7.2%
26
Ed Ableser
701
90
27
170
17
95
15
675
3.9%
27
Catherine Miranda
481
62
19
117
11
65
10
452
6.4%
28
Adam Driggs
697
90
27
169
17
94
15
668
4.3%
29
Martin Quezada
137
18
5
33
3
18
3
106
29.2%
30
Robert Meza
139
18
5
34
3
19
3
107
29.9%
9,170
1,113
323
2,396
305
1,313
137
8,560
7.1%
100.0%
12.1%
3.5%
26.1%
3.3%
14.3%
1.5%
Total
% of Total
24
Table 9: State House District Employment
District
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Representative
Karen Fann
Noel Campbell
John C. Ackerley
Rosanna Gabaldon
Sally Ann Gonzales
Macario Saldate
Charlene Fernandez
Lisa Otondo
Sonny Borrelli
Regina Cobb
Brenda Barton
Bob Thorpe
Jennifer D. Benally
Albert Hale
Thomas Shope
Franklin Pratt
Victoria Steele
Randall Friese
Bruce Wheeler
Stefanie Mach
Mark Finchem
Vince Leach
Edwin W. Farnsworth
Warren H. Petersen
Steve Montenegro
Darin Mitchell
David W. Stevens
Daviid M. Gowan Sr.
John M. Allen
Heather Carter
Doug Coleman
Kelly Townsend
Javan D. Mesnard
Jeff Weninger
Jill Norgaard
2014
Emp.
Women
African
American
Latino/
Hispanic
Asian/
Pacific
Islander
Veterans
Members
of a
Union
2013
Emp.
%
Change
YOY
394
41
11
177
21
63
1
362
8.8%
177
19
5
53
10
29
0
163
8.6%
114
13
4
35
4
17
1
110
3.6%
10
1
0
3
1
2
0
9
11.1%
349
37
10
103
19
56
1
321
8.7%
377
40
11
111
20
61
1
346
9.0%
57
6
2
17
3
9
0
52
9.6%
49
5
1
14
3
8
0
45
8.9%
257
29
8
79
9
38
3
248
3.6%
83
9
3
25
3
12
1
80
3.8%
123
13
3
36
7
20
0
113
8.8%
346
45
13
84
8
47
7
333
3.9%
304
32
8
90
16
49
0
279
9.0%
249
26
7
74
14
40
0
229
8.7%
576
61
16
171
31
93
1
529
8.9%
149
19
6
36
4
20
3
132
12.9%
264
34
10
64
6
36
6
246
7.3%
536
69
21
130
13
72
11
517
3.7%
25
Bob Robson
19
20
Mark A. Cardenas
Diego Espinoza
Anthony Kern
300
39
12
73
7
41
6
280
7.1%
299
39
12
73
7
40
6
278
7.6%
195
25
8
47
5
26
4
173
12.7%
171
22
7
42
4
23
4
148
15.5%
867
112
34
210
21
117
18
843
2.8%
369
48
14
89
9
50
8
343
7.6%
400
52
15
97
10
54
8
373
7.2%
701
90
27
170
17
95
15
675
3.9%
481
62
19
117
11
65
10
452
6.4%
697
90
27
169
17
94
15
668
4.3%
137
18
5
33
3
18
3
106
29.2%
139
18
5
34
3
19
3
107
29.9%
9,170
1,113
323
2,396
305
1,313
137
8,560
7.1%
100.0%
12.1%
3.5%
26.1%
3.3%
14.3%
1.5%
Paul Boyer
21
Tony Rivero
Rick Gray
22
David Livingston
Phil Lovas
23
Jay Lawrence
Michelle R. Ugenti
24
Ken Clark
Lela Alston
25
Russell Bowers
Justin Olson
26
Juan Mendez
Andrew C. Sherwood
27
Reginald Bolding
Rebecca Rios
28
Kate Brophy McGee
Eric Meyer
29
Richard C. Andrade
Ceci Velasquez
30
Jonathan R. Larkin
Debbie Davis
Total
% of Total
26
Figure 13: Map of Congressional District Employment
Table 10: Federal Congressional District Employment
District
Representative
2014
Emp.
Women
African
American
Latino/
Hispanic
Asian/
Pacific
Islander
Veterans
Members
of a
Union
2013
Emp.
% Change
YOY
1
Ann Kirkpatrick
1,017
107
28
301
55
164
2
934
8.9%
2
Martha McSally
503
57
16
154
18
75
5
487
3.3%
3
Raul Grijalva
517
54
14
153
28
83
1
475
8.8%
4
Paul Gosar
1,128
119
32
334
61
181
2
1,036
8.9%
5
Matt Salmon
1,053
136
41
255
25
142
22
986
6.8%
6
David Schweikert
3,026
391
117
734
72
409
64
2,835
6.7%
7
Ruben Gallego
1,510
195
58
366
36
204
32
1,415
6.7%
8
Trent Franks
255
33
10
62
6
34
5
239
6.7%
9
Kyrsten Sinema
161
21
6
39
4
22
3
150
7.3%
9,170
1,112
322
2,399
306
1,314
136
8,557
7.2%
100.0%
12.1%
3.5%
26.2%
3.3%
14.3%
1.5%
Total
% of Total
Note: Due to a larger margin of error, overlapping geographic boundaries may not total to overall demographic figures.
27
Despite the many challenges it continues to face, the resilience and adaptability
demonstrated by the Arizona solar industry throughout 2014 has allowed it to bounce back
from the job losses suffered the year prior. The addition of over 600 solar workers over the
last 12 months represents a 7.2% year over year increase in employment, exceeding the
growth expectations from Arizona Solar Jobs Census 2013 by 1.6%.
With solar market analysts predicting ups and downs in annual installed capacity growth
(and more downs than ups post-2016), along with the reintroduction of old policy
challenges and the emergence of new ones, the ability of the state solar industry to
continue to prevail and maintain its position as one of the top five-largest employer of solar
workers in the nation remains to be seen. A recurring theme in the National Solar Jobs
Census report series is the importance of policy stability at the federal and state levels. With
the wide variety and ever-evolving nature of the policy changes facing it, one would be
hard pressed to find a better solar-specific example of the importance of such stability than
Arizona.
Whatever the ultimate outcome of the various proposals currently under consideration at
the state and local government and utility levels, companies across the state would receive
at least a small benefit from having these issues laid to rest once and for all, providing them
with the policy certainty they require to plan for future business and employment growth.
In the near-term at least, solar employers remain optimistic regarding job growth in 2015,
expecting the Arizona solar workforce to grow by 21% over the next twelve months.
However, given that new challenges to solar emerged after the Census survey period
concluded, it is unclear what impact these would have on employer confidence and
employment if successful.
Just as the number of solar jobs is tied to continued and increasing demand for solar
energy, so too is the ability of these positions to provide workers with higher wages. This
Census report found that solar companies in Arizona have comparatively less difficulty in
finding and recruiting new talent than their peers nationwide, suggesting that the supply of
qualified workers currently outstrips demand. An imbalance of this nature suggests that
companies may be able to attract workers at wages lower than the national average. While
potentially great for keeping costs low for consumers – who may in turn be paying less for
installation labor – this imbalance is less than ideal for solar workers. Increased demand
for solar leading to increased competition between companies can benefit both consumers
and workers.
Only continued annual reinvestigations of solar employment in Arizona will reveal how
solar companies – and workers – will fare.
28
29
The Arizona Solar Jobs Census methodology is most closely aligned with the
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ methodology for its Quarterly Census of Employment and
Wages (QCEW) and Current Employment Statistics (CES). Like BLS, this study uses survey
questionnaires and employer-reported data, though ours are administered by phone and
email, as opposed to mail.
Also like BLS, we develop a hierarchy of various categories that represent solar value chain
activities (within their broader NAICS framework), develop representative sample frames,
and use statistical analysis and extrapolation in a very similar manner to BLS. We also
constrain our universe of establishments by relying on the most recent data from the BLS
or the state departments of labor, depending on which is collected most recently. We
believe that the categories that we have developed could be readily adopted by BLS should
it choose to begin to quantify solar employment in its QCEW and CES series.
The survey was administered to a known universe of solar employers that includes
approximately 511 establishments and is derived from the Solar Energy Industries
Association’s National Solar Database as well as other public and private sources. Of these
establishments, 81 provided information about their solar activities (or lack thereof), and
49 completed full or substantially completed surveys.
The Arizona survey was also administered to a stratified, clustered, random sampling from
various industries that are potentially solar-related that include a total of 5,040
establishments in Arizona. After an extensive cleaning and de-duplication process, a
sampling plan was developed that gathered information on the level of solar activity
(including none) from 880 establishments. Of these, 32 establishments qualified for and
completed full surveys. This level of sampling rigor provides a margin of error for
establishment counts at +/-2.84% and employment at 8.55% at a 95% confidence interval.
For a fuller description of the methodology, please see the National Solar Jobs Census 2014
available at www.tsfcensus.org.
It is of further importance to note that the figures provided in this report are estimates
based on surveys administered only to employers in installation, manufacturing, sales and
distribution, project development and “other” establishments in research and
development, legal services, finance and accounting, academia, government agencies,
nonprofit organizations, and other ancillary employers that do solar work. Data for the
“other” category do not capture all jobs or establishments in the category. Although some
“other” establishments are included in the “known universe,” accounting, legal, finance, and
other ancillary establishments spend only a very small portion of their time on solar
activities. Thus, full inclusion would lead to inflated employment counts.
30
Table 11: 2013-2015 Large Scale Solar Projects in Arizona
Project Name
Status
City/
County
Chino
Valley
State
PV/
CSP
Tech.
Land Type
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
Chino Valley Solar Plant
Operating
Safeway
Operating
Coolidge
AZ
roof
Walmart
Operating
Coolidge
AZ
Carport
Safeway
Operating
Surprise
AZ
roof
Walmart
Operating
Glendale
AZ
Rooftop
Walmart
Operating
Sahuarita
AZ
Carport
Walmart
Operating
Douglas
AZ
Carport
Walmart
Operating
Oro
Valley
AZ
Carport
Walmart
Operating
Flagstaff
AZ
Carport
Safeway
Operating
Cave
Creek
AZ
roof
Walmart
Operating
Payson
AZ
Rooftop
Safeway
Operating
Florence
AZ
roof
Bookmans Recreational
Exchange
Operating
Tucson
AZ
Parking
Shade
Structure
Walmart
Operating
Tucson
AZ
Rooftop
Walmart
Operating
Glendale
AZ
Rooftop
Walmart
Operating
Tucson
AZ
Rooftop
Walmart
Operating
Tucson
AZ
Carport
Walmart
Operating
Marana
AZ
Carport
Intel
Operating
Chandler
AZ
Carport
Rio Rico Phase 1
Operating
Rio Rico
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
Prairie Fire
Operating
Tucson
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
Black Mountain Solar Project
Operating
Kingman
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
Valencia Solar
Operating
Tucson
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
Badger 1
Operating
Maricopa
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
RE Gillespie I
Operating
Maricopa
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
Foothills Solar Plant
San Luis Solar
Operating
Under Development
Yuma
County
AZ
San Luis
AZ
31
PV
PV
c-Si
c-Si
Public
(State
Owned)
Public
(State
Owned)
Online
Date
Aug.
2013
Feb.
2013
Jan.
2013
Jun.
2013
Dec.
2013
Dec.
2013
Year
Capacity
2013
20
2013
0.2352
2013
0.329
2013
0.17808
2013
0.45
2013
0.45
2013
0.45
2013
0.45
2013
0.303
2013
0.14602
2013
0.45
2013
0.2352
2013
0.0497
2013
0.45
2013
0.45
2013
0.45
2013
0.45
2013
0.412
2013
0.947
2013
4
2013
5
2013
8
2013
13
2013
15
2013
15
2013
18
2013
20
Project Name (cont’d)
Status
City/
County
Mesquite Solar
Operating
Arlington
Under Development
La Paz
County
AZ
Operating
Arlington
AZ
Operating
Arlington
AZ
Quartzsite Solar Energy
Project
Arlington Valley Solar
Project
Arlington Valley Solar
Project II
Gila
Bend
Yuma
County
State
PV/
CSP
Tech.
Land Type
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
CSP
Power
Tower
Public
(BLM)
PV
c-Si
Private
AZ
CSP
Parabolic
Trough
Private
AZ
PV
Thin-film
Private
Solana
Operating
Agua Caliente
Operating
Walmart
Operating
Carport
Walmart
Operating
Carport
Walmart
Operating
Carport
ASU Solar Array
Operating
Mesa
AZ
PV
CPV
Private
TEP's Sundt Boost Project
Under Construction
Tucson
AZ
CSP
CLFR
Private
Rio Rico Phase 2
Operating
Rio Rico
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
Hyder Solar Plant II
Operating
Hyder
AZ
PV
c-Si
Davis-Monathan Solar
Project
Operating
Fort Huachuca
Under Construction
Gila Bend Solar
Under Development
Avalon Solar Park
Under Construction
Kingman CSP Project
Under Development
Picture Rocks Solar Farm
Under Development
Maricopa Solar Park
Under Development
Luke Air Force Base
Under Development
CV Solar Project
Sonoran Solar Energy Project
Under Development
Under Development
Tucson
Sierra
Vista
Gila
Bend
Tucson
Kingman
Picture
Rocks
Maricopa
County
Phoenix
Chino
Valley
Maricopa
County
PV
AZ
PV
AZ
PV
AZ
PV
c-Si
AZ
CSP
Parabolic
Trough
Private
AZ
PV
c-Si
Private
AZ
PV
AZ
PV
AZ
PV
AZ
32
PV
c-Si
Private
Public
(BLM)
c-Si
Nov.
2013
Dec.
2013
Feb.
2014
AZ
c-Si
Online
Date
Jan.
2013
Public
(BLM)
Year
Capacity
2013
66
2013
100
2013
125
2013
125
2013
280
2013
290
2014
0.376
2014
0.605
2014
0.444
2014
1
2014
5
2014
7.2
2014
14
2014
16
2014
23
2014
32
2014
35
2014
200
2014
200
2014
300
2015
10
2015
20
2015
300
Unless otherwise noted, all design, text, graphics, and the selection and arrangement thereof
are Copyright February 2015 by The Solar Foundation® and BW Research
Partnership. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Any use of materials in this report, including
reproduction, modification, distribution, or republication, without the prior written consent
of The Solar Foundation and BW Research Partnership, is strictly prohibited.
For questions about this report or to explore options for an in-depth solar jobs study for your
state/region, please contact Andrea Luecke at The Solar Foundation,
[email protected].
Please cite this publication when referencing this material as “Arizona Solar Jobs Census 2014,
The Solar Foundation, available at: www.TSFcensus.org.”
33