Hotel Intelligence Report
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Hotel Intelligence Report
Hotel Intelligence Report Market Insight Japan April 2012 Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 2 Contributors Yasokazu Terada Executive Vice President [email protected] Ayako Sasaki Vice President [email protected] Aki Nakata Research Assistant [email protected] Glossary ADR RevPAR GDP Average Daily Rate Revenue Per Available Room Gross Domestic Product Remarks “The total number of accommodation guests” sourced from Japan Tourism Agency does not include guests staying in hotel accommodation with less than ten employees. All statistics on 2011 sourced from Japan Tourism Agency and JNTO are provisional. Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 3 Market Summary The earthquake and tsunami occurred on March 11, 2011, and the subsequent problems such as the radiation leakage in Fukushima and power shortage in the Greater Tokyo had a negative impact on the tourism and hotel market in Japan. Economic Snapshot 2010 Real GDP Growth (%) Inward FDI (Net USD billion) 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 4.5 -0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 -58.8 -118 -109.8 -82.8 -70.8 The number of international arrivals experienced a significant dip Av. Inflation / CPI (%) -0.7 -0.3 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 after the earthquake. In addition to the travel safety issue associated with the earthquake and subsequent radiation problem, Short-term Interest Rate (%) 0.23 0.19 0.23 0.29 0.43 81.45 77.72 79.23 78.97 78.53 5.1 4.6 5.1 4.8 4.7 the appreciation of the Japanese yen, which continued even after these events, has rendered Japan less attractive as a tourism destination, as compared to destinations outside of Japan. Meanwhile, we have also witnessed a solid recovery in the second half of 2011. As at the date of this report, the hotel trading performance level has almost recovered to the levels seen in 2010 in most major markets, with the exception of the physically damaged areas. As the tourism and hotel market steadily recovers to levels seen in most markets during 2010, Year 2011 will also be a year of recovery from the disastrous events. Albeit the earthquake negatively impacted the hotel trading market, Japan’s hotel investment market was relatively active in the second half of 2011. As a result, hotel asset transaction volumes in 2011 reached its highest level in the last four years after the global financial crisis. In 2012, we expect that business activities as well as consumer sentiment will return to normal levels and that the hotel trading and investment markets will also be active. Av. Exchange Rates (JPY per USD) Av. Unemployment Rate (%) Source: Global Insight (forecast as at April 2, 2012) Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 4 Tourism / Accommodation Market Overview Japan’s tourism and accommodation market in 2011 suffered from lack of demand after the earthquake in March. While domestic Figure 1: Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan demand towards the end of 2011 mostly recovered to levels seen in 2010, international demand has not yet fully recovered as at the date of this report. Overall Trends and Demand Drivers In Japan, the total number of accommodation guests (both domestic and international) reached approximately 326 million, which represented a 6.5% decrease compared to 2010. This decrease is attributed to fewer business activities and weakening consumer sentiment after the earthquake. By guest type, domestic accommodation accounted for Figure 2: Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan - By Month approximately 95.0% of total guests in 2011 while inbound accommodation guests accounted for 5.0%. The total number of domestic and inbound guests decreased by 4.1% and 37.0%, respectively, as compared to the previous year. The monthly statistics, sourced from Japan Tourism Agency, indicate that the number of accommodation guests significantly dipped between March and June but recovered to the level of the previous year in the second half of 2011. Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan (Million) 2007 2008 2009 286.7 287.5 283.0 322.8 309.7 Growth - 0.3% -1.5% 14.1% -4.1% International Guests 22.7 22.2 18.3 26.0 16.4 Growth - -1.8% -17.8% 42.2% -37.0% 309.4 309.7 301.3 348.8 326.1 - 0.1% -2.7% 15.8% -6.5% Domestic Guests Total Growth . Source: Japan Tourism Agency 2010 2011 Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 5 Total Number of Accommodation Guests - By Accommodation Type (Million) Figure 3: Total Number of Domestic Accommodation Guests in Japan - By Month 2008 Limited-Service Hotel Ratio 2009 Ratio 2010 Ratio 2011 103.1 33.3% 105.2 34.9% 130.1 37.3% 126.9 38.9% Full-Service Hotel 61.6 19.9% 58.3 19.4% 66.3 19.0% 60.0 18.4% Resort Hotel 56.2 18.1% 55.0 18.3% 60.3 17.3% 54.5 16.7% Ryokan 84.7 27.3% 79.1 26.2% 82.2 23.6% 74.7 22.9% Others 4.2 1.3% 3.7 1.2% 9.9 2.8% 9.9 3.1% 309.7 100.0% 301.3 100.0% 348.8 100.0% 326.1 100.0% Total Growth 0.1% -2.8% 13.6% -7.0% Source: Japan Tourism Agency Figure 5: Total Number of Accommodation Guests - By Accommodation Type Figure 4: Total Number of International Accommodation Guests in Japan By Month . By accommodation type, hotels accommodated approximately 74.0% of the total accommodation guests in 2011, while ryokans (Japanese inns) accommodated approximately 22.9% of them. Among the various accommodation types, limited-service hotels, full-service hotels and resort hotels absorbed 38.9%, 18.4%, and 16.7% of the total accommodation guests, respectively. In 2011, demand decreased across all accommodation types including hotels and ryokans. Ratio Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 6 International Accommodation Demand Among the international accommodation guests, China (16.1% of total inbound demand) ranked as the top international demand International Visitors Arrivals According to the latest statistics from the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO), international visitor arrivals were 6.2 million source market in 2011, followed by South Korea (14.8%) and in 2011, which was a 27.8% decrease as compared to the previous Taiwan (14.2%). year. In 2011, we saw a decrease in demand for all source markets. In While the Japanese government has implemented numerous addition to the negative impact of the earthquake and its subsequent events, the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen even after the activities in an effort to promote visitation after the earthquake, earthquake has deterred international leisure tourists from visiting international visitation has not fully recovered to the pre-earthquake level as at the date of this report. Japan. Apart from the activities stated above, the Japanese government, having recognised that the tourism industry can stimulate economic growth and employment, has been committed to development of Figure 6: International Accommodation Guest at Japan in 2011 - By Country of Residence the industry. The government launched “Inbound Travel Promotion Project (Visit Japan Project)” in 2010 and set a goal of 15 million visitors by 2013 and 30 million visitors in the long term. This project includes proactive promotional activities outside of Japan, deregulation of visa requirements, etc. Figure 8: International Visitors Arrivals Figure 7: Top 10 Source Markets in 2011 - By Country of Residence . Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 7 Accommodation Supply Trend The profile of the Japanese accommodation market continues to evolve. The long-term trend seems to be an increase in hotel supply and a reduction in ryokan supply, which was evident in the Figure 9: Number of Hotels and Ryokans Establishment (As at end of March) latest data available. This trend is expected to continue over the next several years. According to the latest data from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan had 9,629 hotels with 802,060 rooms at the end of March 2011 or an average property size of 83 rooms. On the other hand, there were 46,906 ryokan establishments with 764,316 rooms at the end of March 2011. The above figures do not count some hotels and ryokans located in the prefectures of Miyagi and Fukushima, which were physically damaged by the earthquake and tsunami. Therefore, we cannot discuss the year-on-year change based on the 2011 statistics. Figure 10: Number of Hotels and Ryokans Room Supply (As at end of March) Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 8 Hotel Investment Market Albeit the hotel trading market exhibited negative performance after March 11, the hotel investment market was relatively active in 2011 as compared to the last four years after the global financial crisis. We saw several transactions suspended after the earthquake but most of them were resumed and completed in the second half of 2011. This increase is mainly attributed to sellers’ (”lenders’’) concessions on a sales price. The results of the Japan hotel investment market in 2011 are summarized as follows: • Continuously after the global financial crisis, many loans financed before 2007 reached maturity in 2011. While many lenders (or CMBS holders) have still taken a wait-and-see attitude, some lenders proceeded with disposition of collateral assets at a price even lower than their loan amount. Lenders’ concession on sales prices resulted in an increase of hotel transaction volume. Figure 11: Number of Hotels Sold in Japan • A total of 55 hotels with 7,926 rooms were publicly announced to have changed ownership in 2011. The transaction volume in 2011 exceeded the level of the past four years after the global financial crisis. In contrast with the previous trend, more than half of the transactions were completed in the second half of the year in 2011. • The average size of the hotels transacted in 2011 was 144 rooms. This figure indicates that the hotels transacted in 2011 were mainly small-sized properties. • Buyers of small-sized transactions were mostly domestic owneroperators and Asian investors. Some Asian investors, who mainly showed an interest in full-service hotels located in gateway cities, have recently broadened their investment scope to limited-service hotels in secondary cities. This trend is due to fewer investment opportunities in gateway cities. • In 2011, large-sized transactions were mostly completed by JREITs. Three J-REITs, which had substantially ceased hotel acquisition activity after the global financial crisis, successively completed five hotel transactions in 2011. • Meanwhile, the two hotel J-REITs, Nippon Hotel Fund and Japan Hotel and Resort, merged in April 2012 to become Japan Hotel REIT. After the merger, Japan Hotel REIT has become the only hotel J-REIT, which holds 28 hotel assets with asset value of approximately 130 billion yen. Figure 12: Number of Rooms Sold in Japan Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 9 Major Lodging Transactions in 2011 (Publicly announced transactions only) Property Name City Prefecture Sales Month No. of Keys Hotel Niseko Scot Mito Hyatt Hotel Niseko Mito Hokkaido Ibaraki Jan-11 Jan-11 Hotel Hero Obihiro Hokkaido Hotel Wing International Nagoya Nagoya Hilton Nagoya Takamatsu Tokyu inn Hotel Nikko Ibaraki Osaka Daiwa Roynet Hotel Yokohama Kannai Hotel Avanshell Akasaka Seller Name Buyer Name 126 56 N/A N/A Sky Capital N/A Feb-11 137 N/A Aichi Feb-11 220 Nagoya Aichi Feb-11 Takamatsu Kagawa Mar-11 Purchase Price(Million yen) N/A N/A Price Per Room(MIl lion yen) N/A N/A Legal Proceeding or No Managed Bid or No No No N/A N/A N/A N/A No N/A N/A Hokkaido Railway Company Taimei Housing N/A N/A No N/A 450 N/A Ewart Investment N/A N/A No N/A 191 N/A Taimei Housing N/A N/A No N/A 3,820 37.1 No N/A 3,250 15.3 No N/A N/A N/A No N/A N/A N/A No N/A 3,746 14.5 No N/A 2,334 7.9 No N/A 4,059 26 No N/A N/A N/A Yes Yes N/A N/A No N/A N/A N/A No N/A Ibaraki Osaka Mar-11 103 Merchant Bankers Yokohama Kanagawa Mar-11 212 Daiwa House Industry MID Urban Development Daiwa Odakyu Construction Akasaka Tokyo Mar-11 71 Lone Star Mitsubishi Estate Hotel Ascent Shinjuku Shinjuku Tokyo Mar-11 63 Leopalace 21 Comfort Hotel Tokyo Higashi Nihombashi Nihombashi Tokyo Apr-11 259 Maya Investmet Dormy inn Kumamoto Kumamoto Kumamoto Apr-11 294 Kyoritsu Maintenance Setsugetsuka Hakone Kanagawa Apr-11 158 Ginsenkaku Kamikawa Hokkaido Apr-11 36 Loisir Hotel Atsugi Hotel Precede Nagoya Atsugi Kanagawa Apr-11 163 Lone Star Daiwa House Industry Nippon Hotel Fund Investment Corporation Nippon Hotel Fund Investment Corporation Japan Hotel and Resort Inc Breezbay Hotel Group Japan New Alpha Nagoya Aichi Apr-11 140 Taisei Corporation Kachikaihatsu Hotel Nikko Chitose Chitose Hokkaido May-11 256 Goldman Sachs Prince Hotel Takamatsu Chikusei Ibaraki May-11 87 JAL City Matsuyama Matsuyama Ehime Apr-11 Numazu Tokyu Hotel Numazu Shizuoka Jun-11 Kyoritsu Maintenance N/A N/A N/A No N/A N/A Breezbay Hotel Group Sakura Fudosan N/A N/A No N/A 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A No N/A 136 N/A Kuretakesou N/A N/A No N/A N/A N/A Yes N/A Kikkatei Saga Saga Jun-11 38 Kikkatei Fukuoka Capital Partners Hotel Esashiya Numazu Shizuoka Jun-11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A No N/A Art Hotels Hamamatsucho Hamamatsu cho Tokyo Jun-11 120 Citi Group Fortress Investment Group N/A N/A No N/A Art Hotels Omori Omori Tokyo Jun-11 220 Citi Group Fortress Investment Group N/A N/A No N/A Hakusatei Hamamat su Shizuoka Jul-11 114 N/A Kuretakesou N/A N/A No N/A Kyoto Century Hotel Kyoto Kyoto Jul-11 218 Hayashibara Group Keihan Electric Railway N/A N/A Yes N/A Ofu Hotel Kamata Ota Tokyo Jul-11 92 Araikumi Aoki N/A N/A No N/A Moriguchi Royal Pines Hotel Moriguchi Osaka Jul-11 175 Aetos Tokaikanko 990 6 No N/A Rantei Kyoto Kyoto Jul-11 20 Hayashibara Group Keihan Electric Railway N/A N/A No N/A ANA Hotel Kushiro Kushiro Hokkaido Aug-11 180 Goldman Sachs GHS N/A N/A No N/A Hyuga Heights Hyuga Miyazaki Aug-11 27 Toko Hyuga City N/A N/A No N/A Hotel Sunroute Shirakawa Saigo Fukushima Aug-11 163 Hotelo Sunroute Shirakawa N/A N/A N/A Yes N/A (Continue to next page) Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 10 Purchase Price(Million yen) Price Per Room(Mil lion yen) Mitsubishi Corporation N/A N/A No N/A Secured Capital Japan Keck Seng Investments 1,757 10 No N/A 143 Tateshina Grand Hotel ORIX Real Estate Corporation N/A N/A Yes N/A Sep-11 304 Risa Partners United Urban Investment Corporation 7,650 25 No N/A Hokkaido Sep-11 203 Karakami Kankou Tsuruga Group 220 1 No N/A Kawasaki Kanagawa Sep-11 70 Karakami Kankou Sumitomo Realty & Development 1,100 16 No N/A Kobe Hyogo Oct-11 235 N/A Hotel Management International 5,000 21 No N/A Sapporo Hokkaido Oct-11 55 Dear Life Live Max N/A N/A No N/A Akasaka Tokyo Nov-11 136 Lone Star Sotetsu Holdings N/A N/A No N/A Naruko Hotel Osaki Miyagi Nov-11 129 Orix Real Estate Naruko Hotel Operations N/A N/A No N/A Athena Awaji Awaji Hyogo Nov-11 59 N/A Sumoto Kanko Group N/A N/A No N/A Kobe Bay Sheraton Hotel & Towers Kobe Hyogo Dec-11 276 Lone Star Hotel New Awaji N/A N/A No N/A Rantei Kyoto Kyoto Dec-11 20 Keihan Electric Railway Mori Trust N/A N/A No N/A Asakusa Vista Hotel Taito Tokyo Dec-11 136 Galileo Japan Trust Tokaikanko 1,050 8 No N/A Hotel Plaza Kobe Kobe Hyogo Dec-11 145 Taisei Corporation N/A N/A N/A No N/A Secured Capital Japan Japan New Alpha N/A N/A No N/A Tokyu Land Corporation N/A N/A N/A No N/A Sales Month Property Name City Prefecture Hotel Monterey Sanno Ota Tokyo Aug-11 Best Western Hotel Fino Osaka Shinsaibashi Higashi Shinsaiba shi Osaka Tateshina Grand Hotel Takinoyu Chino Hotel JAL City Naha No. of Keys Seller Name Buyer Name 166 Sanno Estate Sep-11 179 Nagano Sep-11 Naha Okinawa Hotel Emerald Kushiro Kawasaki Grand Hotel New Otani Kobe Harborland Hotel Sincerit Sapporo Chisun Grand Akasaka Legal Proceeding or No Managed Bid or No Oita Toyo Hotel Oita Oita Dec-11 144 Niseko Kogen Hotel Niseko Hokkaido Dec-11 59 JAL City Yotsuya Shinjuku Tokyo Dec-11 185 Tokyo Tatemono 4,200 23 No N/A Miyoshiya Grand Hotel Matsuyama Washington Hotel Plaza Kobe Seishin Oriental Hotel United Urban Investment Corporation Shin Onsen Cho Hyogo Dec-11 50 Miyoshiya Ryokan Yukai Resort N/A N/A No N/A Matsuyama Ehime Dec-11 190 N/A IPC Corporation 910 5 No N/A Kobe Hyogo Dec-11 184 J-Will Partners Takagawa Group N/A N/A No N/A Hotel Avanshell Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto Dec-11 150 Lone Star Taimei Housing N/A N/A No N/A Source : Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels based on publicly available information Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 11 Disclaimer This report is confidential to the recipient of the report. 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