Hotel Intelligence Report

Transcription

Hotel Intelligence Report
Hotel Intelligence Report
Market Insight
Japan
April 2012
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 2
Contributors
Yasokazu Terada Executive
Vice President
[email protected]
Ayako Sasaki Vice
President
[email protected]
Aki Nakata Research
Assistant
[email protected]
Glossary
ADR
RevPAR
GDP
Average Daily Rate
Revenue Per Available Room
Gross Domestic Product
Remarks
“The total number of accommodation guests” sourced from Japan Tourism Agency does not include guests staying in hotel accommodation
with less than ten employees.
All statistics on 2011 sourced from Japan Tourism Agency and JNTO are provisional.
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 3
Market Summary
The earthquake and tsunami occurred on March 11, 2011, and the
subsequent problems such as the radiation leakage in Fukushima
and power shortage in the Greater Tokyo had a negative impact on
the tourism and hotel market in Japan.
Economic Snapshot
2010
Real GDP Growth (%)
Inward FDI (Net USD billion)
2011
2012F
2013F
2014F
4.5
-0.7
1.4
2.1
2.8
-58.8
-118
-109.8
-82.8
-70.8
The number of international arrivals experienced a significant dip
Av. Inflation / CPI (%)
-0.7
-0.3
-0.8
-0.6
-0.2
after the earthquake. In addition to the travel safety issue
associated with the earthquake and subsequent radiation problem,
Short-term Interest Rate (%)
0.23
0.19
0.23
0.29
0.43
81.45
77.72
79.23
78.97
78.53
5.1
4.6
5.1
4.8
4.7
the appreciation of the Japanese yen, which continued even after
these events, has rendered Japan less attractive as a tourism
destination, as compared to destinations outside of Japan.
Meanwhile, we have also witnessed a solid recovery in the second
half of 2011. As at the date of this report, the hotel trading
performance level has almost recovered to the levels seen in 2010
in most major markets, with the exception of the physically
damaged areas. As the tourism and hotel market steadily recovers
to levels seen in most markets during 2010, Year 2011 will also be
a year of recovery from the disastrous events.
Albeit the earthquake negatively impacted the hotel trading market,
Japan’s hotel investment market was relatively active in the second
half of 2011. As a result, hotel asset transaction volumes in 2011
reached its highest level in the last four years after the global
financial crisis.
In 2012, we expect that business activities as well as consumer
sentiment will return to normal levels and that the hotel trading and
investment markets will also be active.
Av. Exchange Rates
(JPY per USD)
Av. Unemployment Rate (%)
Source: Global Insight (forecast as at April 2, 2012)
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 4
Tourism / Accommodation
Market Overview
Japan’s tourism and accommodation market in 2011 suffered from
lack of demand after the earthquake in March. While domestic
Figure 1: Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan
demand towards the end of 2011 mostly recovered to levels seen
in 2010, international demand has not yet fully recovered as at the
date of this report.
Overall Trends and Demand Drivers
In Japan, the total number of accommodation guests (both
domestic and international) reached approximately 326 million,
which represented a 6.5% decrease compared to 2010. This
decrease is attributed to fewer business activities and weakening
consumer sentiment after the earthquake.
By guest type, domestic accommodation accounted for
Figure 2: Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan - By Month
approximately 95.0% of total guests in 2011 while inbound
accommodation guests accounted for 5.0%. The total number of
domestic and inbound guests decreased by 4.1% and 37.0%,
respectively, as compared to the previous year.
The monthly statistics, sourced from Japan Tourism Agency,
indicate that the number of accommodation guests significantly
dipped between March and June but recovered to the level of the
previous year in the second half of 2011.
Total Number of Accommodation Guests in Japan (Million)
2007
2008
2009
286.7
287.5
283.0
322.8
309.7
Growth
-
0.3%
-1.5%
14.1%
-4.1%
International Guests
22.7
22.2
18.3
26.0
16.4
Growth
-
-1.8%
-17.8%
42.2%
-37.0%
309.4
309.7
301.3
348.8
326.1
-
0.1%
-2.7%
15.8%
-6.5%
Domestic Guests
Total
Growth
.
Source: Japan Tourism Agency
2010
2011
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 5
Total Number of Accommodation Guests - By Accommodation Type (Million)
Figure 3: Total Number of Domestic Accommodation Guests in Japan - By
Month
2008
Limited-Service
Hotel
Ratio
2009
Ratio
2010
Ratio
2011
103.1
33.3%
105.2
34.9%
130.1
37.3%
126.9
38.9%
Full-Service
Hotel
61.6
19.9%
58.3
19.4%
66.3
19.0%
60.0
18.4%
Resort Hotel
56.2
18.1%
55.0
18.3%
60.3
17.3%
54.5
16.7%
Ryokan
84.7
27.3%
79.1
26.2%
82.2
23.6%
74.7
22.9%
Others
4.2
1.3%
3.7
1.2%
9.9
2.8%
9.9
3.1%
309.7
100.0%
301.3
100.0%
348.8
100.0%
326.1
100.0%
Total
Growth
0.1%
-2.8%
13.6%
-7.0%
Source: Japan Tourism Agency
Figure 5: Total Number of Accommodation Guests - By Accommodation
Type
Figure 4: Total Number of International Accommodation Guests in Japan By Month
.
By accommodation type, hotels accommodated approximately
74.0% of the total accommodation guests in 2011, while ryokans
(Japanese inns) accommodated approximately 22.9% of them.
Among the various accommodation types, limited-service hotels,
full-service hotels and resort hotels absorbed 38.9%, 18.4%, and
16.7% of the total accommodation guests, respectively. In 2011,
demand decreased across all accommodation types including
hotels and ryokans.
Ratio
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 6
International Accommodation Demand
Among the international accommodation guests, China (16.1% of
total inbound demand) ranked as the top international demand
International Visitors Arrivals
According to the latest statistics from the Japan National Tourism
Organization (JNTO), international visitor arrivals were 6.2 million
source market in 2011, followed by South Korea (14.8%) and
in 2011, which was a 27.8% decrease as compared to the previous
Taiwan (14.2%).
year.
In 2011, we saw a decrease in demand for all source markets. In
While the Japanese government has implemented numerous
addition to the negative impact of the earthquake and its subsequent
events, the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen even after the
activities in an effort to promote visitation after the earthquake,
earthquake has deterred international leisure tourists from visiting
international visitation has not fully recovered to the pre-earthquake
level as at the date of this report.
Japan.
Apart from the activities stated above, the Japanese government,
having recognised that the tourism industry can stimulate economic
growth and employment, has been committed to development of
Figure 6: International Accommodation Guest at Japan in 2011 - By Country
of Residence
the industry. The government launched “Inbound Travel Promotion
Project (Visit Japan Project)” in 2010 and set a goal of 15 million
visitors by 2013 and 30 million visitors in the long term. This project
includes proactive promotional activities outside of Japan,
deregulation of visa requirements, etc.
Figure 8: International Visitors Arrivals
Figure 7: Top 10 Source Markets in 2011 - By Country of Residence
.
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 7
Accommodation Supply
Trend
The profile of the Japanese accommodation market continues to
evolve. The long-term trend seems to be an increase in hotel
supply and a reduction in ryokan supply, which was evident in the
Figure 9: Number of Hotels and Ryokans Establishment
(As at end of March)
latest data available. This trend is expected to continue over the
next several years.
According to the latest data from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour
and Welfare, Japan had 9,629 hotels with 802,060 rooms at the
end of March 2011 or an average property size of 83 rooms. On
the other hand, there were 46,906 ryokan establishments with
764,316 rooms at the end of March 2011.
The above figures do not count some hotels and ryokans located in
the prefectures of Miyagi and Fukushima, which were physically
damaged by the earthquake and tsunami. Therefore, we cannot
discuss the year-on-year change based on the 2011 statistics.
Figure 10: Number of Hotels and Ryokans Room Supply
(As at end of March)
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 8
Hotel Investment Market
Albeit the hotel trading market exhibited negative performance after
March 11, the hotel investment market was relatively active in 2011
as compared to the last four years after the global financial crisis.
We saw several transactions suspended after the earthquake but
most of them were resumed and completed in the second half of
2011. This increase is mainly attributed to sellers’ (”lenders’’)
concessions on a sales price.
The results of the Japan hotel investment market in 2011 are
summarized as follows:
• Continuously after the global financial crisis, many loans
financed before 2007 reached maturity in 2011. While many
lenders (or CMBS holders) have still taken a wait-and-see
attitude, some lenders proceeded with disposition of collateral
assets at a price even lower than their loan amount. Lenders’
concession on sales prices resulted in an increase of hotel
transaction volume.
Figure 11: Number of Hotels Sold in Japan
• A total of 55 hotels with 7,926 rooms were publicly announced to
have changed ownership in 2011. The transaction volume in
2011 exceeded the level of the past four years after the global
financial crisis. In contrast with the previous trend, more than half
of the transactions were completed in the second half of the year
in 2011.
• The average size of the hotels transacted in 2011 was 144
rooms. This figure indicates that the hotels transacted in 2011
were mainly small-sized properties.
• Buyers of small-sized transactions were mostly domestic owneroperators and Asian investors. Some Asian investors, who
mainly showed an interest in full-service hotels located in
gateway cities, have recently broadened their investment scope
to limited-service hotels in secondary cities. This trend is due to
fewer investment opportunities in gateway cities.
• In 2011, large-sized transactions were mostly completed by JREITs. Three J-REITs, which had substantially ceased hotel
acquisition activity after the global financial crisis, successively
completed five hotel transactions in 2011.
• Meanwhile, the two hotel J-REITs, Nippon Hotel Fund and Japan
Hotel and Resort, merged in April 2012 to become Japan Hotel
REIT. After the merger, Japan Hotel REIT has become the only
hotel J-REIT, which holds 28 hotel assets with asset value of
approximately 130 billion yen.
Figure 12: Number of Rooms Sold in Japan
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 9
Major Lodging Transactions in 2011 (Publicly announced transactions only)
Property Name
City
Prefecture
Sales
Month
No. of
Keys
Hotel Niseko Scot
Mito Hyatt Hotel
Niseko
Mito
Hokkaido
Ibaraki
Jan-11
Jan-11
Hotel Hero
Obihiro
Hokkaido
Hotel Wing
International Nagoya
Nagoya
Hilton Nagoya
Takamatsu Tokyu inn
Hotel Nikko Ibaraki
Osaka
Daiwa Roynet Hotel
Yokohama Kannai
Hotel Avanshell
Akasaka
Seller Name
Buyer Name
126
56
N/A
N/A
Sky Capital
N/A
Feb-11
137
N/A
Aichi
Feb-11
220
Nagoya
Aichi
Feb-11
Takamatsu
Kagawa
Mar-11
Purchase
Price(Million
yen)
N/A
N/A
Price Per
Room(MIl
lion yen)
N/A
N/A
Legal
Proceeding
or No
Managed
Bid
or No
No
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
N/A
Hokkaido Railway
Company
Taimei Housing
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
450
N/A
Ewart Investment
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
191
N/A
Taimei Housing
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
3,820
37.1
No
N/A
3,250
15.3
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
3,746
14.5
No
N/A
2,334
7.9
No
N/A
4,059
26
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
Yes
Yes
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Ibaraki
Osaka
Mar-11
103
Merchant Bankers
Yokohama
Kanagawa
Mar-11
212
Daiwa House
Industry
MID Urban
Development
Daiwa Odakyu
Construction
Akasaka
Tokyo
Mar-11
71
Lone Star
Mitsubishi Estate
Hotel Ascent Shinjuku
Shinjuku
Tokyo
Mar-11
63
Leopalace 21
Comfort Hotel Tokyo
Higashi Nihombashi
Nihombashi
Tokyo
Apr-11
259
Maya Investmet
Dormy inn Kumamoto
Kumamoto
Kumamoto
Apr-11
294
Kyoritsu
Maintenance
Setsugetsuka
Hakone
Kanagawa
Apr-11
158
Ginsenkaku
Kamikawa
Hokkaido
Apr-11
36
Loisir Hotel Atsugi
Hotel Precede
Nagoya
Atsugi
Kanagawa
Apr-11
163
Lone Star
Daiwa House
Industry
Nippon Hotel
Fund Investment
Corporation
Nippon Hotel
Fund Investment
Corporation
Japan Hotel and
Resort Inc
Breezbay Hotel
Group
Japan New Alpha
Nagoya
Aichi
Apr-11
140
Taisei Corporation
Kachikaihatsu
Hotel Nikko Chitose
Chitose
Hokkaido
May-11
256
Goldman Sachs
Prince Hotel
Takamatsu
Chikusei
Ibaraki
May-11
87
JAL City Matsuyama
Matsuyama
Ehime
Apr-11
Numazu Tokyu Hotel
Numazu
Shizuoka
Jun-11
Kyoritsu
Maintenance
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
N/A
Breezbay Hotel
Group
Sakura Fudosan
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
161
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
136
N/A
Kuretakesou
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
N/A
N/A
Yes
N/A
Kikkatei
Saga
Saga
Jun-11
38
Kikkatei
Fukuoka Capital
Partners
Hotel Esashiya
Numazu
Shizuoka
Jun-11
22
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Art Hotels
Hamamatsucho
Hamamatsu
cho
Tokyo
Jun-11
120
Citi Group
Fortress
Investment Group
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Art Hotels Omori
Omori
Tokyo
Jun-11
220
Citi Group
Fortress
Investment Group
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Hakusatei
Hamamat
su
Shizuoka
Jul-11
114
N/A
Kuretakesou
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Kyoto Century Hotel
Kyoto
Kyoto
Jul-11
218
Hayashibara Group
Keihan Electric
Railway
N/A
N/A
Yes
N/A
Ofu Hotel Kamata
Ota
Tokyo
Jul-11
92
Araikumi
Aoki
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Moriguchi Royal
Pines Hotel
Moriguchi
Osaka
Jul-11
175
Aetos
Tokaikanko
990
6
No
N/A
Rantei
Kyoto
Kyoto
Jul-11
20
Hayashibara Group
Keihan Electric
Railway
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
ANA Hotel Kushiro
Kushiro
Hokkaido
Aug-11
180
Goldman Sachs
GHS
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Hyuga Heights
Hyuga
Miyazaki
Aug-11
27
Toko
Hyuga City
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Hotel Sunroute
Shirakawa
Saigo
Fukushima
Aug-11
163
Hotelo Sunroute
Shirakawa
N/A
N/A
N/A
Yes
N/A
(Continue to next page)
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 10
Purchase
Price(Million
yen)
Price Per
Room(Mil
lion yen)
Mitsubishi
Corporation
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Secured Capital
Japan
Keck Seng
Investments
1,757
10
No
N/A
143
Tateshina Grand
Hotel
ORIX Real Estate
Corporation
N/A
N/A
Yes
N/A
Sep-11
304
Risa Partners
United Urban
Investment
Corporation
7,650
25
No
N/A
Hokkaido
Sep-11
203
Karakami Kankou
Tsuruga Group
220
1
No
N/A
Kawasaki
Kanagawa
Sep-11
70
Karakami Kankou
Sumitomo Realty
& Development
1,100
16
No
N/A
Kobe
Hyogo
Oct-11
235
N/A
Hotel
Management
International
5,000
21
No
N/A
Sapporo
Hokkaido
Oct-11
55
Dear Life
Live Max
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Akasaka
Tokyo
Nov-11
136
Lone Star
Sotetsu Holdings
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Naruko Hotel
Osaki
Miyagi
Nov-11
129
Orix Real Estate
Naruko Hotel
Operations
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Athena Awaji
Awaji
Hyogo
Nov-11
59
N/A
Sumoto Kanko
Group
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Kobe Bay Sheraton
Hotel & Towers
Kobe
Hyogo
Dec-11
276
Lone Star
Hotel New Awaji
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Rantei
Kyoto
Kyoto
Dec-11
20
Keihan Electric
Railway
Mori Trust
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Asakusa Vista Hotel
Taito
Tokyo
Dec-11
136
Galileo Japan Trust
Tokaikanko
1,050
8
No
N/A
Hotel Plaza Kobe
Kobe
Hyogo
Dec-11
145
Taisei Corporation
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Secured Capital
Japan
Japan New Alpha
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Tokyu Land
Corporation
N/A
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Sales
Month
Property Name
City
Prefecture
Hotel Monterey
Sanno
Ota
Tokyo
Aug-11
Best Western Hotel
Fino Osaka
Shinsaibashi
Higashi
Shinsaiba
shi
Osaka
Tateshina Grand
Hotel Takinoyu
Chino
Hotel JAL City Naha
No. of
Keys
Seller Name
Buyer Name
166
Sanno Estate
Sep-11
179
Nagano
Sep-11
Naha
Okinawa
Hotel Emerald
Kushiro
Kawasaki Grand
Hotel
New Otani Kobe
Harborland
Hotel Sincerit
Sapporo
Chisun Grand
Akasaka
Legal
Proceeding
or No
Managed
Bid
or No
Oita Toyo Hotel
Oita
Oita
Dec-11
144
Niseko Kogen Hotel
Niseko
Hokkaido
Dec-11
59
JAL City Yotsuya
Shinjuku
Tokyo
Dec-11
185
Tokyo Tatemono
4,200
23
No
N/A
Miyoshiya Grand
Hotel
Matsuyama
Washington Hotel
Plaza
Kobe Seishin Oriental
Hotel
United Urban
Investment
Corporation
Shin Onsen
Cho
Hyogo
Dec-11
50
Miyoshiya Ryokan
Yukai Resort
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Matsuyama
Ehime
Dec-11
190
N/A
IPC Corporation
910
5
No
N/A
Kobe
Hyogo
Dec-11
184
J-Will Partners
Takagawa Group
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Hotel Avanshell Kyoto
Kyoto
Kyoto
Dec-11
150
Lone Star
Taimei Housing
N/A
N/A
No
N/A
Source : Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels based on publicly available information
Hotel Intelligence Report • Market Insight Japan • April2012 • 11
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statement or circular or in any communication with third parties without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, including
specifically in relation to the form and context in which it will appear.
We stress that forecasting is a problematical exercise which at best should be regarded as an indicative assessment of possibilities rather
than absolute certainties. The process of making forward projections involves assumptions in respect of a considerable number of variables
which are acutely sensitive to changing conditions, variations in any one of which may significantly affect the outcome and we draw your
attention to this factor. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels makes no representation, warranty, assurance or guarantee with respect to any material
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Wilhelm-Leuschner-Strasse 78
60329 Frankfurt
Germany
tel: +49 69 2003 0
fax: +49 69 2003 1040
Glasgow
150 St Vincent Street , Glasgow G2
5ND
United Kingdom
tel: +44 141 248 6040
fax: +44 141 221 9032
Istanbul
Yeşim sok. No:2 Akatlar - Levent
Istanbul 34335
Turkey
tel: +90 212 350 0800
fax: +90 212 350 0806
Jakarta
Jakarta Stock Exchange
Building Tower 1, 28th Floor,
Sudirman Central, Business District
Jl. Jend Sudirman Kav 52-53
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
tel: +62 21 515 5665
fax: +62 21 515 5666
Lyon
55, avenue Foch
69006 Lyon
Tel: +33 4 78 89 26 26
Fax: +33 4 78 89 04 76
Madrid
Paseo de la Castellana, 51
Planta 5, 28046 Madrid
Spain
tel: +34 91 789 1100
fax: +34 91 789 1200
Manchester
Chancery Place, 50 Brown Street
Manchester M2 2JT tel:
+44 161 828 6440 fax:
+44 161 828 6490
Melbourne
Level 21, Bourke Place
600 Bourke Street, Melbourne VIC
3000
Australia
tel: +61 3 9672 6666
fax: +61 3 9600 1715
Mexico City
Monte Pelvoux 111, Piso 5
Lomas de Chapultepec
México, DF 11000
tel: +52 55 5980 8091
fax: +52 55 5202 4377
Miami
2333 Ponce de Leon Blvd, Suite
1000
Coral Gables, Florida 33134
United States
tel: +1 305 529 6345
fax: +1 305 529 6398
Milan
Via Agnello 8
20121 Milan
Italy
tel: +39 02 8586 8672
fax +39 02 8586 8670
Munich
HighLight Munich Business Towers
Mies-van-der-Rohe-Strasse 6
80807 Munich
Germany
tel: +49 89 2900 8882
fax: +49 89 2900 8888
New Delhi
Level 9 Tower A, Global Business
Park,
Mehrauli Gurgaon Road, Sector 26,
Gurgaon 122002
Haryana, India
tel: +91 124 4605000
fax: +91 124 4605001
New York
601 Lexington Avenue, 33rd Floor
New York NY 10022
United States
tel: +1 212 812 5700
fax: + 1 212 421 5640
Paris
40-42, rue La Boétie
75008 Paris
France
tel: +33 1 4055 1718
fax: +33 1 4055 1868
Perth
Level 29, Central Park
152 - 158 St Georges Terrace
Perth Western Australia 6000
tel: +61 8 9322 5111
fax: +61 8 9481 0107
Rome
Via Bissolati 20
00187 Rome
Italy
tel: +39 06 4200 6710
fax: +39 06 4200 6720
São Paulo
Rua Joaquim Floriano,
72 – cj. 97 04534-000
São Paulo, SP
tel: +55 11 3043 6900
fax: +55 11 3043 6999
Singapore
9 Raffles Place, # 38-01 Repulic
Plaza
Singapore 048619
tel: +65 6536 0606
fax: +65 6533 2107
Sydney
Level 26, 420 George Street
Sydney NSW 2000
Australia
tel: +61 2 9220 8777
fax: +61 2 9220 8765
Tokyo
3rd Floor, Prudential Tower
2-13-10 Nagatacho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 100-0014
Japan
tel: +81 3 5501 9240
fax: +81 3 5501 9211
Washington D.C.
1801 K Street NW , Suite 1000
Washington, DC 20006
United States
tel: +1 202 719 5000
fax: +1 202 719 500