Consejo Monetario Centroamericano

Seminario de Política Monetaria y Estabilidad
Financiera
Managua -Nicaragua
Septiembre 2014
Indicadores de Dolarización
Financiera en Centroamérica y RD
Esquemas Monetarios
Regímenes de Política Monetaria y
Esquemas Cambiarios
Flexibilidad
Esquemas Monetarios
Regímenes Monetarios
TC Intermedio
Agregados Monetarios
Metas de Inflación
El Salvador
Nicaragua:
Minidevaluacione
s Preanunciadas
Honduras
Costa Rica
Dominicana
TC Flotante
Regímenes Monetarios
Flexibilidad
TC Fijo
Ancla Cambiaria
Guatemala
20.0
jun-10
jul-14
dic-13
may-13
oct-12
mar-12
ago-11
ene-11
nov-09
jul-07
jul-14
6.8
abr-09
7.8
dic-13
8.0
sep-08
8.2
oct-12
8.4
may-13
Guatemala
feb-08
5.0
mar-12
17.0
dic-06
Nicaragua
ago-11
10.0
oct-05
15.0
18.0
may-06
500
ago-04
20.0
19.0
mar-05
20.0
ene-11
Dominicana
ene-04
jul-14
dic-13
550
jun-10
oct-12
may-13
25.0
nov-09
7.0
ago-11
21.0
abr-09
25.0
mar-12
30.0
feb-08
jun-10
ene-11
22.0
sep-08
abr-09
nov-09
0.0
jul-07
7.2
dic-06
7.4
30.0
may-06
7.6
35.0
oct-05
40.0
mar-05
45.0
ago-04
50.0
ene-04
55.0
sep-08
feb-08
jul-07
dic-06
may-06
oct-05
mar-05
ago-04
ene-04
jul-14
dic-13
may-13
oct-12
mar-12
ago-11
ene-11
jun-10
nov-09
abr-09
sep-08
Honduras
jul-14
dic-13
may-13
oct-12
mar-12
ago-11
ene-11
jul-07
feb-08
16.0
jun-10
nov-09
abr-09
sep-08
feb-08
jul-07
dic-06
may-06
oct-05
mar-05
ago-04
ene-04
dic-06
may-06
oct-05
mar-05
ago-04
ene-04
CA&RD: Tipo de Cambio Nominal
Esquemas Monetarios
Costa Rica
600
450
400
350
ene-99
jul-99
ene-00
jul-00
ene-01
jul-01
ene-02
jul-02
ene-03
jul-03
ene-04
jul-04
ene-05
jul-05
ene-06
jul-06
ene-07
jul-07
ene-08
jul-08
ene-09
jul-09
ene-10
jul-10
ene-11
jul-11
ene-12
jul-12
ene-13
jul-13
ene-14
jul-14
Índice de Tipo de Cambio Real
Año Base:2000
Esquemas Monetarios
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Costa Rica
Honduras
Nicaragua
Finanzas Públicas En CA&RD
Esquemas Monetarios
Algunas Implicancias de desequilibrios
Fiscales para la
Política Monetaria:
 Pérdida de Reservas (en ausencia de flotación pura).
 Apreciación Real del Tipo de Cambio.
 Trade Off en el uso de la tasa de interés como instrumento de
políticas (Presiones de demanda vrs. costo de la deuda pública).
 Alza en tasas de interés reales (por competencia de recursos y
riesgo país e inflación esperada).
 Mayores costos cuasifiscales.
Finanzas Públicas En CA&RD
Costa Rica
Esquemas Monetarios
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
0.45
0.35
0.30
0.25
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1997
1998
1996
1995
0.20
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Porcentajes
Porcentajes
Balance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04
0.40
Costa Rica
El Salvador
El Salvador
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
Balance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
0.50
0.08
0.45
0.06
0.40
0.04
Porcentajes
Porcentajes
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.02
0.00
-0.02
0.10
-0.04
0.05
-0.06
0.00
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Finanzas Públicas En CA&RD
Guatemala
Esquemas Monetarios
Balance primario GC porcentaje PIB
0.30
0.01
0.25
0.00
Porcentajes
Porcentajes
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
0.20
0.15
-0.01
-0.01
0.10
-0.02
0.05
-0.02
-0.03
0.00
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2002
2013
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Honduras
Honduras
Balance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
0.90
.000
0.80
-.010
0.70
-.020
Porcentajes
Porcentajes
Guatemala
0.60
0.50
0.40
-.030
-.040
-.050
0.30
-.060
0.20
-.070
0.10
-.080
0.00
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Finanzas Públicas En CA&RD
Nicaragua
Nicaragua
Esquemas Monetarios
Balance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
.800
.020
.015
.600
Porcentajes
Porcentajes
.700
.010
.500
.005
.400
.000
.300
-.005
.200
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-.010
2002
Dominicana
0.02
0.40
0.01
0.35
0.00
0.15
Porcentajes
Porcentajes
0.45
0.20
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Balance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
0.25
2004
Dominicana
0.50
0.30
2003
-0.01
-0.02
-0.03
0.10
0.05
-0.04
0.00
-0.05
2012
2013
Objetivos de un Banco Central
Esquemas Monetarios
 Los Objetivos de un Banco Central deben considerar la naturaleza de
los instrumentos que dispone y la institucionalidad del País.
 No puede tenerse más objetivos que instrumentos.
Instrumentos
Objetivos
Política Monetaria y
Cambiaria (TI, TC, OMA,
Encajes, etc.
Estabilidad de Precios y
Control del Ciclo
Capacidad Normadora del
Sistema Financiero y del
SdeP
Estabilidad Financiera
(ámbito macroprudiencial)
Capacidad (información y
capital humano) para la
Formulación de Políticas
Sectoriales.
Contribuir al Crecimiento
de Largo Plazo
Objetivos y Mecanismos de la
Política Monetaria
Monetarios
Con AnclaEsquemas
Cambiaria
Instrumentos
Variables del
Mecanismo
Objetivo Intermedio
Objetivo Final
OMA, Encaje
Reservas
Tipo de Cambio
Precios
Efectivo con:
• Elevado Pass Throw
Vulnerable a:
• Movimiento de K
Shock Abserver
Tasas de
Interés
Con Metas de inflación
Instrumentos
Variables del
Mecanismo
Objetivo Intermedio
TPM
i, r, C, I, DA
Expectativas de
π
Efectivo con:
• Bajo Pass Throw
Manejable pese:
• Movimiento de K
Shock Abserver
Objetivo Final
Precios y Brecha
Producto
Tipo de
Cambio
Nicaragua: Precios y Tipo de Cambio
50
40
30
20
10
Inflación
ene-14
ene-13
ene-12
ene-11
ene-10
ene-09
ene-08
ene-07
ene-06
ene-05
ene-04
ene-03
ene-02
ene-01
ene-00
ene-99
ene-98
ene-97
ene-96
-10
ene-95
0
Devaluación
 Convertibilidad ha sido eficaz para mantener la estabilidad monetaria y de precios
Dilema de Políticas Macroeconómicas
Reglas
Discreción
Rigidez
Flexibilidad
Caso El Salvador
Caso EE.UU
Los Consensos Constituyen el basamento de cualquier política exitosa y sostenida
Reto de Política Monetaria
Esquemas Monetarios
Política Monetaria
Subordinada a la Meta
Cambiaria
Política Monetaria Flexible
Transición es un ejercicio de
optimización dinámica en cada
estado de situación (Arte de diseño
de mecanismos y manejo de
expectativas.
 En la transición se puede ir desarrollando los instrumentos necesarios
para una política monetaria más flexible
Conclusiones I
Esquemas Monetarios
 La disciplina Fiscal es un Activo que debe mantenerse y consolidarse
independientemente de la estrategia monetaria que se implemente.
 Los objetivos de un Banco Central pueden incluir aspectos adicionales
a la inflación, siempre y cuando cuente con los instrumentos
necesarios (en el caso de Nicaragua cabe incluir un objetivo de
contribución al crecimiento).
 La política monetaria en el presente, se ajusta a las condiciones
actuales, en este sentido la convertibilidad (seguro cambiario ha
funcionado bien como ancla nominal de la economía.
Conclusiones II
Esquemas Monetarios
 La Flexibilidad de políticas constituye una estrategia superior a las
reglas rígidas
 El éxito en mantener la estabilidad macroeconómica se fundamenta en
un conceso por hacer los ajustes necesarios cuando la coyuntura así lo
demande, las maneras pueden variar en función de la realidad de cada
país.
 La eventual entrada de capitales constituyen un importante reto para
las autoridades monetarias.
 La transición hacia una mayor flexibilidad monetaria debe seguir una
senda de optimización en función de lo que las condiciones
económicas lo permitan.
Central America and Dominican Republic
September, 2013
Costa Rica: Performance and Economic Outlook
20.0
8.0
17.0
6.0
5.1
4.4
3.7
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
14.0
0.0
11.0
-1.0
4.7
5.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
4.6
5.0
-4.0
2005
2010
2011
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-4.5
-5.4
-6.0
2012
2013
2014
-5.8
105.0
-5.2 -5.0
-5.1
95.0
90.0
82.6
85.0
-9.0
-5.0
100.0
50.0
40.0
2014
Real Exchange Rate Index (2000=100)
-3.0
43.6
2013
110.0
53.3
35.0
2012
-4.1
-4.0
Current Account Deficit/GDP
2005
45.0
2009
-7.0
0.0
51.2
2008
-5.0
Total Public Debt/GDP
55.0
2007
-6.0
-1.0
60.0
2006
-3.0
5.0
2.0
2014
2005
-2.0
8.0
3.0
2.0
-2.0
Central Goberment Balance/GDP
Inflation y/y
Economic Growth
10.0
79.7
80.0
77.2
75.0
30.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-12.0
Note 1: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
2012
2013
Costa Rica: Performance and Economic Outlook
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Nominal Exchange Rate (C$/US$)
600
2.00
575
1.60
550
1.20
525
511
505
504
500
0.80
0.76
0.77
2012
2013
0.40
475
450
0.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2005
2013
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
26.0
22.0
18.0
14.0
10.7
10.0
10.8
7.0
6.0
2.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
30.0
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
2006
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
-2.0
0.60
2010
2011
2012
2013
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
14.3
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
2010
2011
15.0
2012
10.6
2013
Costa Rica: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Positive Issues:
 Transition to Inflation Target
 Exchange Rate Band.
 Export Diversification.
 High Social Development.
 Current Account financed by DFI.
 Stable Inflation.
Risk Factors:
Main Challenges:
- Fiscal Deficit.
- Growth Deceleration and Unemployment.
- Increase in Central Bank Loses.
• Reduce Fiscal Deficit
• Adopt Inflation Targeting.
El Salvador: Performance and Economic Outlook
Economic Growth
Inflation y/y
8.0
Central Government Balance/GDP
15.0
3.0
6.0
2.0
12.0
1.0
4.0
1.5
2.0
1.3
-1.0
6.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-2.3
-2.0
5.1
0.0
2012
2013
2014
-1.7
-3.0
2.9
3.0
-2.0
-0.4
0.0
9.0
1.9
-4.0
0.8
-5.0
0.0
-4.0
-6.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-3.0
Real Exchange Rate Index (2000=100)
Current Account Deficit/GDP
Total Public Debt/GDP
115.0
0.0
70.0
2005
65.0
60.8
60.0
54.3
55.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
-2.9
-3.0
50.0
-4.6
45.0
40.0
2012
2014
110.0
58.6
-6.0
104.5
105.0
106.0 106.9
-4.2
100.0
95.0
35.0
90.0
30.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-9.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
2012
2013
El Salvador: Performance and Economic Outlook
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Nominal Exchange Rate (L$/US$)
13.0
2.00
11.0
1.60
8.8
9.0
8.8
8.8
1.30
1.20
0.98
1.15
0.80
7.0
0.40
0.00
5.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
14.0
25.0
12.0
21.0
10.0
17.0
8.0
3.4
4.0
9.0
5.7
4.7
6.0
13.0
2.0
0.0
5.0
-0.7
1.0
-3.0
2006
Note: 2013 data correspond to May.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note: 2013 data correspond to May.
2010
2011
1.8
1.2
-2.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-4.0
2012
2013
-6.0
Note: 2013 data correspond to May.
2010
2011
2012
2013
El Salvador: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Positive Issues:
 Dollarization.
 Macroeconomic Stability related to the
Dollarization of the Economy.
 Well Capitalized Financial Sistem.
 Reasonable Fiscal Deficit.
Risk Factors:
Main Challenges:
- Cotinuous Low Growth.
- Cotinuous Low Invesment Levels.
- Rollover Risk in Internal Public Debt.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
• Increase Economic Growth.
• Improve Debt Payment Profile.
• Strengthen Governance Indicators.
Guatemala: Performance and Economic Outlook
Central Government Balance/GDP
Inflation y/y
Economic Growth
8.0
6.0
20.0
2.0
17.0
1.0
0.0
14.0
4.2
4.0
3.6
3.0
11.0
6.2
5.0
0.0
3.4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-2.0
-1.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-2.8
-3.0
4.0
2012
2013
-2.4
-2.5
2014
-4.0
2.0
2005
2005
-2.0
8.0
3.4
2.0
-1.0
-5.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-6.0
-4.0
-4.0
Current Account Deficit/GDP
Total Public Debt/GDP
Real Exchange Rate Index (2000=100)
3.0
32.0
30.0
28.7
100.0
29.5
90.0
27.4
28.0
0.0
80.0
2005
26.0
24.0
-3.0
22.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-3.4
2012
2013
2014
67.8
70.0
-2.9
-3.7
68.0
65.8
60.0
50.0
20.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2010
2011
2012
2013
-6.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
2012
2013
Guatemala: Performance and Economic Outlook
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Nominal Exchange Rate (L$/US$)
2.00
11.0
1.60
9.0
1.20
7.8
7.9
7.8
0.99
1.02
1.01
2011
2012
2013
0.80
7.0
0.40
5.0
0.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2005
2008
2009
2010
Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
25.0
50.0
21.0
40.0
17.0
30.0
10.6
8.8
9.0
11.3
39.5
30.6
20.0
13.6
10.0
5.0
0.0
1.0
-3.0
2007
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
13.0
2006
-10.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2011
2012
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
-20.0
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2011
2012
2013
Guatemala: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Positive Issues:
 Inflation Targeting.
 Floating Exchange Rate, but with a rule to restrict
the Volatility.
 Sustainable Public Debt (Lower in CA).
 Monetary Stability.
 Moderate Current Account Deficit (Lower in CA).
Risk Factors:
Main Challenges:
- Poverty and Inequality (Social Development).
- Insecurity related to Drug Trafficking.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
• Increase Tax Revenue in order to Finance
Social Programs.
• Reduce the Insecurity.
• Strengthen Governance Indicators.
Honduras: Performance and Economic Outlook
Central Government Balance/GDP
Inflation y/y
Economic Growth
3.0
20.0
8.0
2.0
17.0
1.0
6.0
14.0
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.0
5.6
5.0
5.4
5.5
5.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-2.0
2.0
-1.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-2.0
8.0
3.1
2.0
0.0
-1.0
11.0
-3.0
-4.0
-3.9
-4.6
-5.0
-5.1
-6.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-5.9
-7.0
-4.0
Total Public Debt/GDP
Real Exchange Rate Index (2000=100)
Current Account Deficit/GDP
80.0
0.0
70.0
-3.0
110.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
105.0
100.0
60.0
-6.0
50.4
50.0
44.7 45.1
-9.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-8.5
-8.1
-9.5
95.0
-8.8
90.0
-12.0
85.0
-15.0
80.0
82.2
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-18.0
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
83.2 83.2
2012
2013
Honduras: Performance and Economic Outlook
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Nominal Exchange Rate (L$/US$)
21.0
20.1
20.6
2.00
1.60
19.1
19.0
1.20
0.80
17.0
0.78
0.75
0.79
2011
2012
2013
0.40
15.0
0.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2005
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
25.0
35.0
21.0
30.0
25.0
17.0
11.8
13.0
20.0
15.0
9.0
10.0
11.5
10.0
5.0
2.6
1.0
-3.0
1.5
7.6
5.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
2011
2012
2013
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
2011
2012
2013
Honduras: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Positive Issues:
 Liquidity Management.
 Exchange Rate Band (Limited flexibility)
 Sustainable Public Debt.
 Stable Inflation.
 Prudent Monetary Policy.
Risk Factors:
Main Challenges:
- Fiscal Deficit.
- Rollover Risk in Internal Public Debt.
- Growth Deceleration and Unemployment.
- High Current Account Deficit.
- Roya Effects and Low Prices in Coffee Sector.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
• Reduce Fiscal Deficit.
• Increase NIR.
• Deal with Real Appreciation.
• Improve Debt Payment Profile.
• Strengthen Governance Indicators.
Nicaragua: Performance and Economic Outlook
Inflation y/y
Economic Growth
8.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
4.5
4.0
4.2
Central Government Balance/GDP
20.0
4.0
17.0
3.0
14.0
2.0
11.0
1.0
8.0
8.0
2.0
6.6
7.0
5.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
7.1
0.5
-1.0
2011
2012
0.5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2013
-0.1
2014
-2.0
2.0
2014
0.5
0.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-4.0
-4.0
Current Account Deficit/GDP
Total Public Debt/GDP
160.0
0.0
140.0
-3.0
120.0
-6.0
Real Exchange Rate Index (2000=100)
115.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
108.1
110.0
109.4
110.0
2012
2013
105.0
100.0
-9.0
80.0
-12.0
54.4 51.6 48.4
60.0
40.0
20.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-13.5 -12.8 -14.0 -13.7
100.0
-15.0
95.0
-18.0
90.0
-21.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
Nicaragua: Performance and Economic Outlook
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Nominal Exchange Rate (C$/US$)
27.0
23.0
24.0
24.2 25.0
2.00
1.60
21.0
1.20
18.0
1.08
1.15
1.16
2011
2012
2013
0.80
15.0
0.40
12.0
0.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2005
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
30.0
20.0
25.0
20.3 18.7
20.0
16.0
15.0
12.0
10.4
6.5
8.0
10.2
10.0
6.1
4.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-10.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
2011
2012
2013
-15.0
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
2011
2012
2013
Nicaragua: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Positive Issues:
 Exchange Rate as Prices Nominal Anchor
 Crawling Peg (5% annual).
 Economic Growth (highest in the region).
 Fiscal Balance (surplus after grant).
 Agreement between Government, Employers and Unions.
 Sustainable Public Debt.
 Advantageous Debt Payment Profile.
Risk Factors:
- Dependency on External Cooperation
- High Current Account Deficit.
- Economy’s Dollarization.
- Roya Effects and Low Prices in Coffee Sector.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
Challenges:
• Reduce External Vulnerabilities.
• Reduce the Proportion of Foreign Currency Debt.
• Strengthen Inflation Control.
• Strengthen Governance Indicators.
Dominican Republic: Performance and Economic Outlook
Economic Growth
Central Government Balance/GDP
Inflation y/y
2.0
12.0
10.0
16.0
8.0
13.0
6.0
10.0
1.0
0.0
4.5
4.0
-1.0
3.9
7.8
3.0
3.9
4.0
5.0
4.5
0.0
-2.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2005
-2.8
-4.0
-5.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Real Exchange Rate Index (2000=100)
0.0
50.2
45.7
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
110.0
105.0
-3.0
42.9
45.0
2005
-6.6
2014
Current Account Deficit/GDP
Total Public Debt/GDP
50.0
-4.5
100.0
40.0
-6.0
35.0
-7.9
30.0
-9.0
2014
-2.6
-7.0
55.0
2013
-6.0
1.0
-2.0
-4.0
2012
-3.0
7.0
2.0
2005
-2.0
-7.2
93.9
95.0
96.1
98.5
90.0
85.0
25.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2010
2011
2012
2013
80.0
-12.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
2012
2013
Dominican Republic: Performance and Economic Outlook
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Nominal Exchange Rate (L$/US$)
50.0
2.00
45.0
38.6
40.0
40.3
42.0
1.60
1.20
35.0
0.80
30.0
0.40
0.62
0.56
0.63
0.00
25.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2005
2013
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
25.0
30.0
21.0
25.0
17.0
20.0
10.7
13.0
15.0
9.0
5.7
7.0
5.0
5.7
5.0
1.0
-3.0
9.3
10.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.0
-5.0
-7.0
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
1.6
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
2011
2012
2013
Dominican Republic: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Positive Issues:
 Inflation Targeting.
 Floating Exchange Rate, but with Discretionary
Interventions.
 Considerable Inflow of Foreing Direct
Investment.
 Inflation Targeting Adoption.
Risk Factors:
Main Challenges:
- Low Levels of Net International Reserves.
- Fiscal Unbalances.
- Lag in Electric Energy Supply.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
• Increase International Reserves.
• Deal with the Electric Energy Problems.
• Strengthen Governance Indicators.