1997 Mastermind Mock Draft - Fantasy Football Mastermind

Transcription

2013 Pre-Season Draft Guide
Version V
August 16th, 2013
17th Issue; Copyright 2013 Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc.
Reproductions, adaptations, re-distribution, representation of this product in any form whatsoever without
written consent of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. is strictly prohibited. All rights reserved.
Table of Contents
Introduction - A Greeting from Michael Nazarek
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Page 3
News & Notes – News, Notes, & Injury Updates from the NFL
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Page 6
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Page 36
Page 41
Page 50
Page 57
Page 67
Page 77
Page 84
Page 89
Page 96
Page 108
Page 114
Page 126
Page 137
Page 145
Page 167
Page 173
Page 175
Page 179
Page 218
Page 236
Page 238
Page 243
Page 257
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Page 276
Page 279
Page 291
Page 297
Page 305
Page 350
Page 377
Page 392
Page 407
Page 425
Page 459
Page 501
Page 521
Page 536
Page 547
Fantasy Articles
"The 2013 FFMastermind.com Draft Plan" - Michael Nazarek
“Designing Your Draft Strategy 2013” – Chris Rito
“The Ten Demandments” – God (via John Holler)
“Strength of Schedule 2013” – John Cooney
“Coaching Carousel 2012” – John Holler
“Movers & Shakers: Adjusting Draft Strategy” – Chris Rito
“The ABCs of Auction Draft Leagues in 2013” – Steve Yerger
“The 2013 NFL Schedule…” – John Holler
“Exploding: 2013’s Third-Year Receivers” – John Cooney
“The Tricks of the Trade in 2013” – Chris Rito
"Busting the Wedge - Points via Return Specialists" - J. Cooney
"RBBC: The Four Most Hated Letters in FF" - Chris Rito
"Get Out the Handcuffs!" - John Cooney
"Hangin' in the Red Zone 2013" - John Holler
"Strategies for QB-Weighted Leagues in 2013" - John Cooney
"Zigging and Zagging Through Your Draft" - H.D. Coelho
"Magic QB Handcuffs" - Chris Rito
"Player Percentage: Who's on the Field & Who Isn't?" - J. Holler
"Fantasy Impact: Pass-Catching RBs" - John Cooney
"The Local Live Draft... What to Expect" - H.D. Coelho
“Backup QBs – Who’s the Next Tony Romo?” - Chris Rito
"The Perfect Draft - 12-Teams PPR" - John Cooney
"Gimps & Geezers" - Eddie Rex
"The Perfect Draft - 12-Teams Non-PPR" - John Cooney
"Did He Just Say That?" - Eddie Rex
2013 Sleeper Preview (UPDATED) – by Michael Nazarek
2013 Creeper Preview (UPDATED) – by Michael Nazarek
2013 Rookie Preview – by John Holler
AFC/NFC Training Camp Capsules – by M. Nazarek & J. Holler
2013 Ofensive Line Analysis - The Big Uglies – by John Cooney
2013 Dynasty Player Rankings & Draft Strategies – by B. Lathrop
2013 Specialty Player Rankings – by John Cooney
QB Player Profiles – Brees & Rodges at the Top, But...
RB Player Profiles – Three STUDs Lead the Way…
WR Player Profiles – Calvin and Brandon Rule the Roost…
TE Player Profiles – Jimmy Graham Stands Alone…
PK Player Profiles – Grab a Top 8 Guy Late!
IDP Sleepers/Creepers/Rookies & Strategies – by Steve Yerger
Master’s Trading Edge 2013 Version – by John Cooney
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(C)opyright 2013 Fantasy Football Mastermind
2
Introduction
Introduction
June 28, 2013
by: Michael Nazarek
Welcome to the 17
th
annual Fantasy Football Mastermind Pre-Season Draft Guide!
Wow. I can't believe it's been nearly 20 years online! This first cut represents only the start of a
very experienced and rich in fantasy football information content living document. There are
more than 235 pages herein, and it will likely grow to be more than double in size (last year's
final cut was nearly 600 pages). With this version you'll find 10 fantasy articles with at least
another dozen on the way.
In the initial version of this guide, I offer the June cut of the Official 2013 FFMastermind.com
Draft Plan, along with my comprehensive fantasy sleeper and creeper features. Future articles
will cover Summer's Burning Questions andfother timely topics. I'll also be personally handling
all the News & Notes Updates in the guide along with the Premium Quick Bits News & Views
(debuting in early August) posted directly online. After consulting with our staff, I've developed
all fantasy player projections within this guide (save IDP). They are offered after WEEKS of
intense analysis regarding the current state of the NFL and all 32 teams researched individually.
Anytime there is a major development with regard to flucuations in player values, there will be
an update, even if that takes place in between our normal schedule of updates.
FFMastermind.com remains dedicated towards being the most up-to-date fantasy football
information service this summer, and we'll prove that to you in this guide over the long haul.
Senior fantasy writer John Holler has penned three of the initial 10 articles herein (10
Demandements, 2013 Schedule, & 2013 Coaching Carousel), as well as helped me extensively
with the player profiles within the guide. Holler also returns as our Rookie Specialist with regard
to that content within this guide and our web site. In addition to his initial preview coming in
July, he will offer at least two rookie updates over the coming weeks once training camps begin,
as rookie gain their footholds within their respective teams in the NFL. Of course, Holler will
also be helping me write our annual Training Camp In-Depth Team Capsules with Special Camp
Tidbits to debut later in August.
Exclusive staff writer (and Kansas City Chiefs correspondent) John Cooney offers articles in
version I of this guide regarding Third-Year Breakout WRs and Strength of Schedule for 2013.
He’s also handling our ADP charts in the 2013 Masters Trading Edge feature, as well as our
Offensive Lines Analysis (The Big Uglies). In future versions of this guide, Cooney will pen
articles on Pass-Catching RBs, Fantasy Specialty Rankings, Strategies for QB-Weighted Fantasy
Leagues, and Return Specialists. He will also compile our series of Perfect Drafts for your
viewing pleasure.
Indianapolis Colts correspondent and staff writer Chris Rito penned three articles for the first
version of this guide, including a fresh take on Tricks of the Trade for 2013, Tayloring Drafting
Strategies (for different scoring systems), and his special Designing Your Draft Strategy for
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Introduction
2013. Later this summer, Rito returns with another in-depth look at RBBC (Running Back by
Committee) and a special look at the top Back-Up QBs for fantasy owners to keep their eyes on.
Keeper Korner columnist Brent Lathrop offers his Dynasty League cheatsheet and player
analysis in version I of the guide. He will update them with each upcoming release, as well as
offer special looks at certain players in his Keeper Korner Spotlights (coming in August).
Lathrop also penned another Dynasty League Drafting Strategies article for the guide.
Exclusive Staff Writer Eddie Rex is expected to return to contribute his take on the lighter side of
fantasy football’s most controversial topics. Eddie is always informative in an off-beat sort of
way.
As a reminder, we will post links to real expert leagues drafts FFMastermind.com (all the ones I
play in) is participating as they occur this summer, along with draft pick analysis. We've already
posted pick analysis for the FanEx FAD, a draft that ended in early June, as well as the FFIndex
Magazine Mock Draft (my picks and analysis from mid-May).
Our famous Masters List Customizable Cheatsheets MS Excel App. returns in 2013. We have
released versions for both normal performance scoring leagues and those with PPR (Point-PerReception). It contains all FFMastermind.com player projections (incuding team defense and
IDP projections). Input your scoring rules, click the re-order button, and BOOM… Custom
Fantasy Cheatsheets! Every time there is a player rankings update, we'll update the projections
within the Masters List.
Don’t want to download anything to customize your rankings? That’s where our Mastermind
Championship Projections (MCP) Board comes into play. This board returns in 2013 and is
fully customizable and contains detailed projections and comments for more than 475 NFL
players/team defenses! You can print the board with or without comments and it is already
customized for most of the popular scoring systems played online including Yahoo! Sports,
ESPN, and CBS Sportsline! This board will be updated countless times when important news
breaks throughout the summer.
We have plenty more surprises in store for the rest of the summer, all will be released in good
time. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and we want to give subscribers plenty of time to read all
herein as we get rolling with training camps opening in late July.
I heartily thank each and every writer who contributed to this guide. It's the heart and soul of
FFMastermind.com, and they should all be proud. As you read this guide, please keep in mind it
is a “living” document. That means it will constantly be changing through the first week or two
in September. Player rankings will change (a lot). Sleepers may become creepers, and vice
versa. If you purchased one of the fantasy magazines out there in book stores this summer, you
can toss those aside right now. They are out-of-date and have content from back in May or
earlier. We have worked long and hard to try to give you the most comprehensive, current, and
accurate fantasy football guide on the market. If you have a question, please don’t hesitate to ask
me ([email protected]). I will do my best to answer it in a prompt manner. What we
present to you in this living and growing guide is our in-depth analysis of the current situation
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4
Introduction
with regard to fantasy potential of current NFL players. 17 YEARS of experience and intuition
are what guides us, pure and simple. Enjoy.
Sincerely,
- Michael Nazarek
CEO/President of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc.
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5
News and Notes
News and Notes
August 16, 2012
by: Michael Nazarek
This week marks the release of two special articles by Eddie Rex taking a look at Gimps &
Geezers and asking Did He Really Just Say That? Eddie has a very unique way of looking at
things. John Cooney continues his series of Perfect Drafts with one for 10-team Non-PPR
leagues. Look for another two from John very shortly for 10-team PPR and Non-PPR leagues!
Of course, Brent Lathrop returns with another Dynasty Rankings Update this week, and John
Holler and myself have released our comprehensive AFC Team Training Camp Capsules for
your viewing pleasure. In addition, I updated my Creepers Feature for you earlier this week. I
will be scanning my Official Draft Plan once again for potential changes this coming week.
Next week, John Holler will return with a Rookie Rankings update and IDP Specialist Steve
Yerger will be updating his IDP Sleeper/Creeper/Impact Rookies feature as well. There were
several more player ranking changes this week. All are detailed within the respective position
player rankings analysis sections. Let's get right to this week's latest news and notes…
Player Movements/Signings
The New York Jets have signed free-agent RB Kahlil Bell.
The New Orleans Saints had a new wide receiver at practice Monday, veteran WR Patrick
Crayton. Crayton, 34, didn't play in the 2012 regular season, but he was a longtime valuable
backup receiver/punt returner for the Dallas Cowboys. He played under Saints HC Sean Payton
in 2004-05 when Payton was the Cowboys' offensive coordinator.
The Baltimore Ravens have signed veteran free-agent WR Brandon Stokley.
The New England Patriots have released veteran WR Michael Jenkins.
The Washington Redskins have released veteran WR Devery Henderson.
The Baltimore Ravens have signed free-agent TE Dallas Clark.
Holdouts
There are no new developments regarding holdout franchised Buffalo Bills S Jairus Byrd.
Injuries
A source says New England Patriots QB Tom Brady's knee injury is not serious. The word is
it's just a sprain. More tests are coming tonight. ESPN's Adam Schefter adds an MRI on Brady's
knee was negative and he now is considered day-to-day.
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News and Notes
Despite continued soreness in his left knee, Buffalo Bills QB Kevin Kolb returned to practice
Monday for the first time in eight days with the intention of resuming an offseason-long
competition with the Bills' first-round draft pick. ''They said, 'We're going to ease you in.' And I
said, 'No you're not. I want you to put me in,''' Kolb said. ''I wasn't going to waste another day. I
wanted to get out there.'' Kolb acknowledged he has plenty of catching up to do since twisting
his knee while slipping on a wet rubber mat during practice on Aug. 4. He missed five practices
and was held out of the Bills' preseason-opening 44-20 win at Indianapolis on Sunday. It's
unclear whether he'll play in Buffalo's preseason game against Minnesota on Friday. ''I'd love to
tell you right now that I'm playing for sure, but that's not necessarily correct,'' Kolb said. He's
coming off a difficult week. Aside from getting hurt, Kolb was then excused from training camp
following the death of a family member. He rejoined the team Friday, and only took part in
individual sessions. On Monday, Kolb walked with a slight limp, and had difficulty moving
around in the pocket while wearing a padded brace around his knee. On his first pass attempt
during team drills, he rolled to his right and threw the ball into the feet of his intended receiver.
Kolb eventually removed the brace and participated in a team red-zone session at the end of
practice. That's when he zipped a hard pass over the middle to WR Da'Rick Rogers for a
touchdown. ''I think we're taking it slowly and carefully,'' Kolb said. ''But yeah, I'm trying to
push the envelope a little bit, you know what I mean.'' HC Doug Marrone wants to see how Kolb
performs in practice before determining whether he will play Friday.
New York Jets rookie QB Geno Smith's ankle injury abbreviated his first preseason
performance and it may cancel his second. HC Rex Ryan was asked Wednesday if Smith could
miss the team’s game against the Jaguars on Saturday because of the ankle, and Ryan indicated
that was an option. “Well, I guess, we’ll see how it goes,” the coach said. “He’s been out their
practicing, working through things... but that could be a possibility.” Ryan was speaking after a
very tough practice for the rookie quarterback, who threw four interceptions -- three in 11-on-11
drills to the third team defense and one in 7-on-7 drills. “It was brutal. It was Geno’s worst day. I
think, and obviously, the ankle’s part of it, but...way too many picks and things. Did not look
comfortable today,” Ryan said. “Obviously he has to come back from it, he will come back from
it. It was a bad day. Everybody, we’ve seen it, guys have bad days. But this was a really bad day
for Geno.”
Houston Texans HC Gary Kubiak said he's hoping to get RB Arian Foster (back - PUP) back at
practice on Monday. He's been out with a back injury. His calf is fine.
Cleveland Browns RB Trent Richardson insists he’s 100 percent healthy and wants to play
Thursday night in the second preseason game of the year against the Detroit Lions, but he also is
keeping the big picture in mind. The organization’s No. 1 goal for Richardson is to ensure he’s
ready to roll Sept. 8 when the Miami Dolphins come to town for the regular-season opener.
Browns HC Rob Chudzinski said he hasn’t decided yet whether Richardson will face the Lions
after sitting out the exhibition opener last week against the St. Louis Rams. Richardson rested for
two practices Aug. 2-3 after being kicked in the right shin, the same one in which he suffered a
strained muscle in the spring. He returned to action Aug. 5 but was limited in team drills. On
Sunday, he received more reps in 11-on-11 sessions and looked sharp running the ball as his
workload increased. “The ultimate goal is to make it to Miami, but it’s one day at a time,”
Richardson told the Beacon Journal after practice Sunday. “You don’t want to do nothing too
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News and Notes
crazy to get hurt. At the same time, you want to be on time with everything, with your timing,
the game conditioning and everything like that. Coach [Chudzinski] lets me take my reps in
practice here and there and we’re just seeing how everything goes through with my shin. I
wanted to be out there [in the preseason opener]. Coach makes the decisions. They just told me
they were going to sit me down, and that was that. There were no words other than that. Coach
made a decision, and it happened like that.” Speaking of that troublesome shin, Richardson said
it feels fine. “Oh yeah, 100 percent, ready to go, and Coach will let time heal and let time do
what it does,” said Richardson, the third overall pick in last year’s draft. “I’m with Coach and
letting him tell me what to do.”
Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (foot) has been seen by two orthopedics, everything
checked out OK with his injured foot. He's listed day-to-day. Charles had soreness up his leg
from the strain yesterday, but could be on the field tomorrow.
Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles (foot) was doing rehab work by marching up and down
the steep grassy hill next to the team's indoor facility on Tuesday. HC Andy Reid says Charles
could have practiced today if "push came to shove."
Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) has missed only one practice and the
team’s lone preseason game so far and both were HC Gus Bradley’s decision. Out the entire offseason following late December foot surgery, Jones-Drew has been one of camp’s bright spots,
steadily increasing his first-team reps each week. So will Jones-Drew be on the field against the
New York Jets? “I won’t know until Saturday,” he said after practice today. “It’s just one of
those things. You have to prepare yourself to play. If I get the green light, I get it. If I don’t, I’ll
go back to work next week and do it all over again.” On Saturday, Bradley gave a “we’ll see,”
answer regarding Jones-Drew facing the Jets.
Pittsburgh Steelers rookie RB Le’Veon Bell aggravated his left knee during practice today, but
it's not considered to be serious. He could yet play on Monday. HC Mike Tomlin said Bell will be
evaluated later.
The Indianapolis Colts have activated RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot surgeries) from the active
PUP list.
Tt was halfway through the afternoon practice when Indianapolis Colts RB Ahmad Bradshaw
(foot) made an appearance. He was without pads and accompanied by a trainer. They went to a
far end of the Anderson University practice complex and worked with other players still on the
mend. “We’re just going to take it slow,” Bradshaw said following the morning walk-through. “I
feel great now. I feel I’m ready to go. “It’s just a process I have to go through to be ready for the
pounding and practices every day.” Does he feel 100 percent? “Oh, definitely,” Bradshaw said.
“I guess that was part of the misinterpretation last week and I’m just ready to go ... We just want
to take it slow, make it last the whole season.”
New York Jets RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) participated and took handoffs for the first time in
team drills this past week.
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News and Notes
Baltimore Ravens RB Bernard Pierce (knee) returned to practice on Monday
Cleveland Browns RB Dion Lewis broke his left fibula after a catch in the third quarter
Thursday night and could miss the season.
The good news for Cleveland Browns RB Montario Hardesty (thumb/knee) this week was that
his injured right thumb wasn't broken, but dislocated. The bad news was that he'll undergo
arthroscopic surgery on his left knee Thursday, and a source told cleveland.com that he'll miss
the first two to three regular-season games. It's the same knee in which Hardesty tore his anterior
cruciate ligament in the final preseason game of 2010 and caused him to miss his entire rookie
year.
Arizona Cardinals RB Ryan Williams underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection in his ailing
right knee about 10 days ago. Williams is just one of many athletes to receive such injections,
which are designed to send highly-concentrated platelets, the part of blood that helps us heal, to
the injured area. It works like this: The patient’s blood is drawn and then put through a
centrifuge. That concentrates it down to 7-10 times the normal amount of platelets. The
substance is then injected into the injured area. “It tricks the body into regenerating,” said Dr.
Luga Podesta, an orthopedic surgeon at Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic in Los Angeles. Dr.
Podesta isn’t treating Williams but performs PRP regularly and has had success using it in
athletes with elbow ligament tears, Achilles injuries and patellar tendon tears. Williams suffered
a patellar tendon tear nearly two years ago, and his current knee problem is believed to be
related. “We’ve had great success with throwing athletes,” Dr. Podesta said. “With high-grade,
partial tears, we’ve been able to get 80 percent of them back in 12 weeks.” So what’s the normal
recovery time for patients who have undergone a PRP injection? “Initially, you want to limit the
activity because you want the cells to grow,” Dr. Podesta said. “In my experience, for the first
two weeks I let them do a minimal amount, just range of motion and strengthening exercises
using only their own weight.” For Williams, the two week mark would be this weekend. So it
would seem doubtful he would play Saturday against the Cowboys. After that, the patient returns
to activity as his body dictates. He probably wouldn’t jump back into full action, but work back
gradually.
Minnesota Vikings Pro Bowl FB Jerome Felton will likely miss the rest of the preseason after
undergoing an emergency appendectomy on Wednesday afternoon, according to multiple NFL
sources. The veteran fullback attended the team's morning walk-through on the final full day of
training camp but was then absent from the afternoon practice. It turns out, a source said, that
Felton was rushed back to the Twin Cities for surgery to remove his appendix. That operation
was a success and the timeline for Felton's recovery should be somewhere in the ballpark of two
weeks. But it's almost certain the team will keep Felton out of game action until the regular
season opens Sept. 8 in Detroit.
Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson sat out Thursday night’s preseason game against the Browns
while he nurses a knee contusion. There’s no reason to believe that this knee contusion is
anything serious.
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News and Notes
Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green (bruised knee) was back on the practice field for first time
since he bruised his knee two weeks ago on Wednesday. He primarily went through individual
drills.
Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green (bruised knee) said he's 100% healthy Wednesday after he
went through individual drills.
Atlanta Falcons WR Roddy White injured his ankle Thursday night against the Ravens, and did
not return.
New York Giants HC Tom Coughlin said DE Justin Tuck (back) and WR Hakeem Nicks
(groin) will play this Sunday against the Colts.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Cecil Shorts (calf) remains day-to-day. He sounds doubtful to play
this Saturday, but would probably play if it were the regular season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars put WR Cecil Shorts (calf) through a pretty intense workout on
Thursday. The guess is that he'll return to practice next week.
Tennessee Titans WR Kenny Britt (knee) returned to practice on Thursday after missing three
straight days.
Buffalo Bills WR Stevie Johnson (hamstring) and WR Brad Smith (hamstring) returned to the
practice setting from their hamstring injuries. Both Smith and Johnson participated in individual
position drills and each got a couple of reps in 7-on-7. “It felt good, actually, to be out there. It’s
not where I want it to be. I was hoping I could get into, get involved in practice but you know
it’s pulling a little bit but you know, everyday it’s getting better.” “I was happy to see Stevie
Johnson out here,” said HC Doug Marrone. “He had good work. I’m not going to play him in
this upcoming game, but again it was great to see him out there along with Brad Smith.” Smith is
closer to a full return than Johnson and has an outside chance to play Friday night. They’re
hoping to have Johnson back full go sometime next week, but that’s not a guarantee. TE Scott
Chandler (torn ACL) was held out of the first preseason game as a precautionary measure
coming off ACL reconstruction just eight months ago. But he’ll get some playing time Friday
night against the Vikings. That according to head Marrone, who said he’ll have Chandler on a
pitch count. “I believe Scott Chandler will get some reps barring anything happening between
now and (Friday night),” said Marrone. ”So you’ll see him in there.”
The San Diego Chargers feared Monday night they had, in a span of seven days, lost two starting
wide receivers for the year to the same injury. An MRI result offered significant relief. Initial
testing shows WR Malcom Floyd strained his knee in practice Monday afternoon, a team
spokesman said. More information could be forthcoming, but it appears the 10th-year veteran
avoided sharing the fate of WR Danario Alexander, whose season ended Aug. 6 upon suffering
a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Recovery from a knee strain can take as few as seven to 14
days, said Dr. Daniel Kharrazi, an orthopedic surgeon at Kerlan-Jobe Orthopaedic Clinic in Los
Angeles. While having extensive experience with athletes, Kharrazi has not evaluated Floyd
personally, and the team has not released a formal timetable for his recovery. "A strain is a much
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News and Notes
less imposing injury than a sprain," Kharrazi said in a phone interview. "Don't forget a grade-2
ACL sprain is basically a partially torn ACL. A sprain a lot of times is interchangeable with
partial tears in ligaments." While too early to say definitively whether Floyd will be ready to
play Week 1, it is certain that losing both Alexander and Floyd for the season would have been a
devastating one-two blow to the Chargers offense.
The San Diego Chargers are relieved about WR Malcolm Floyd's (knee) initial MRI results
suggesting a strained knee, but the team expects Floyd to seek a second opinion just to be sure.
Meanwhile, a source says Floyd won't return until at least Week #1 at the soonest, even if his
injury is not serious as the team believes.
A New York Jets team insider says WR Santonio Holmes (LisFranc) desperately wants to get
back to work and play with the team. He's working vigorously every day to do so. The team is
happy with his work ethic.
New York Jets WR Santonio Holmes (foot) says trainers believe he's week-to-week. Definitely,
progress is starting to take.
Detroit Lions WR Ryan Broyles (torn ACL) is only eight months removed from ACL surgery.
He was participating almost daily at practice, though not quite every rep. Broyles' practice time
has tapered off recently in a plan to thwart off any soreness (which he said he had last week) or
setbacks. He sat out Tuesday's session. "We're flexible with his schedule, but he's been going
about two days on and one day off now," HC Jim Schwartz said.
San Diego Chargers HC Mike McCoy said WR Keenan Allen (knee) was sent to the athletic
trainer's room midway through practice on Tuesday to get treatment. The knee treatment relates
to the injury that ended his 2012 season at Cal. The team is trying to play it safe, stay on top of
it.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Andrew Hawkins (ankle) said he doesn't need surgery and plans to
return and play at some point in 2013.
Right after he tore his Achilles tendon in January, Houston Texans WR DeVier Posey (Achilles)
told HC Gary Kubiak he'd be ready in time for Week 1 of this season. Kubiak looked at him like
he was crazy. "I was in a wheelchair," Posey said with a chuckle. "I went from a wheelchair to a
scooter to crutches to a walking boot to a shoe to a heel lift. I just was constantly telling the guys
I'll be ready for the regular season." It's looking more and more like that will be the case. Kubiak
said after practice Wednesday that Posey is very close to coming off the physically unable to
perform list. In fact, it could happen next week. Asked if he would be ready for the Texans'
season opener in San Diego, Posey said his doctor was comfortable with that. "I can almost dunk
now," Posey said. "It's pretty amazing."
Dallas Cowboys WR Cole Beasley had an MRI on his injured left foot Saturday that showed he
had sprained ligaments and some bone bruising. Beasley was in a walking boot Saturday and is
expected to miss some practice time this week, though no timetable has been set for his return.
Beasley, the second-year player out of SMU, injured his left foot in the third quarter Friday night
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News and Notes
of the Cowboys’ preseason game at Oakland. After making a 23-yard catch, Beasley limped off
the field and eventually headed into the locker room. Beasley, who is the leading candidate to
land the Cowboys’ No. 5 receiving job, said late Friday night that he thought an Oakland player
stepped on his foot. Beasley, who finished with three catches for 49 yards and a touchdown, said
X-rays after the game came back negative.
Pittsburgh Steelers WR Plaxico Burress is lost for the season after undergoing an operation to
repair a torn rotator cuff.
Baltimore Ravens HC John Harbaugh said the team hasn't officially ruled TE Dennis Pitta (hip)
out for the season.
Baltimore Ravens TE Ed Dickson remains out indefinitely with a slightly torn right hamstring.
"You can't rush back those things," Dickson said. "I'm trying my hardest to get back out there. It
kills me. I'm hard on myself. I want to get back out there today, but I don't want to go out and
hurt the team and be out for weeks during the regular season. "It's one of those things where you
got to look back and see if you did all the right things to prevent the thing. You never know with
a muscle pull. You have to make sure that you take care of it so it's not recurring all the weeks in
the season. You have to make sure you're on top of those things. I'm pretty sure that we
pinpointed it and we're just trying to get it as healthy as we can." Dickson was noncommittal on
whether he can return in time for the Ravens' Sept. 5 regular-season opener against the Denver
Broncos. "I can’t make any predictions but I’m working hard to do that," Dickson said. "It's one
of those things where it was really sore and I tried to prevent it by doing other things. The doctor
said it went all the way through, so it's not lingering through the season so I can get all the way
healthy and make me back to 100 percent."
Seattle Seahawks HC Pete Carroll said TE Zach Miller (foot - PUP) and DE Cliff Avril (foot)
may still be two weeks away from returning to practice. He said getting them back for the third
preseason game is not a priority.
You shouldn't expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to go out and sign a veteran tight end like the
Baltimore Ravens did with TE Dallas Clark. The recent spate of injuries at the position has left
the Steelers with TE David Paulson as their No. 1 tight end, and that is not about to change
soon. The Steelers are not planning to add a tight end other than players such as TE Michael
Palmer and TE Nathan Overbay to their roster because they plan on getting TE Heath Miller
(torn ACL), TE Matt Spaeth and TE David Johnson back at various points this season. Miller
remains on the physically-unable-to-perform list after having offseason surgery to repair three
ligament tears in his knee, including the anterior cruciate ligament. The Steelers have not set a
timetable for his return, but he appears to be on a schedule similar to the one RB Rashard
Mendenhall was on in 2012 when he came back from offseason ACL surgery. Spaeth, reacquired in free agency to be Miller's backup, had surgery Monday to repair a Lisfranc sprain in
his foot -- an injury that will keep him out at least eight to 10 weeks. "We'll keep him alive and
see what the timetable is for him," coach Mike Tomlin said. "I'll probably get more clarity with
that over the next couple weeks." And Johnson, who missed all last season after tearing his ACL
in training camp, is also on the PUP list after having arthroscopic surgery less than two weeks
ago to clean up some cartilage. Johnson, though, said he expects to return soon and hopes to play
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News and Notes
in one of the preseason games. "I should be back in a few weeks," Johnson said. "The rehab,
everything, is going real good. I should be back real soon. Right now, I'm just working as hard as
I can to get back in and help everyone out."
Indianapolis Colts TE Coby Fleener (concussion) was in full pads and practicing Wednesday.
That means he must have passed the concussion test protocols.
Houston Titans TE Delanie Walker (knee - PUP) said there's a chance he may not play at all
this preseason.
The St. Louis Rams have activated TE Lance Kendricks (knee) from the active PUP list.
San Francisco 49ers HC Jim Harbaugh said rookie TE Vance McDonald (unspecified) will be
sidelined for about seven to 10 days because of an undisclosed injury. If he follows that timeline,
he'll be back for the third preseason game against Minnesota on Aug. 25.
Miami Dolphins OL Nate Garner (shoulder) is out 2-3 weeks after undergoing arthroscopic
shoulder surgery.
Dallas Cowboys OG Ronald Leary will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right knee Friday,
according to a source. The left guard missed the team’s walk-through practice Wednesday, and
an MRI later revealed the bad news. Leary had moved into the starting lineup after Nate Livings
underwent knee surgery, and the Cowboys were counting on Leary to start the season opener
against the Giants. That now is in doubt. Leary's injury is unrelated to the degenerative disorder
in his left knee.
Oakland Raiders OT Jared Veldheer (triceps) will undergo surgery on his partially torn triceps
Friday and will miss three months of action.
Seattle Seahawks DE Cliff Avril (hamstring) returned to the practice field for the first time in
over two weeks after battling a hamstring injury suffered early in training camp. Avril did not
participate in team drills and only went through individual workouts for the Seahawks on
Wednesday. HC Pete Carroll said it’s “not very likely” that Avril will be able to play Saturday
against the Denver Broncos. However, Avril’s return to the practice field is a welcome sight as
he’s been held out for most of the offseason.
Houston Texans LB Brian Cushing (torn ACL) confirmed Tuesday he will play against Miami
on Saturday. It will be his first action since suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the fifth
game last fall against the New York Jets. “There’s still work to do, rust to shake off, but I’m
ready to go,” Cushing said. “I’m looking forward to it.”
Atlanta Falcons LB Sean Weatherspoon (dislocated finger) returned to practice on Monday. He
wore a glove on the hand and had two fingers taped together as he went through a limited portion
of the practice.
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News and Notes
San Diego Chargers rookie LB Manti Te'o (foot) suffered a foot sprain last Thursday night, HC
Mike McCoy announced Saturday, adding he will be sidelined the next week. No timetable was
otherwise released.
New Orleans Saints LB Jonathan Vilma (knee) is undergoing knee surgery today in
Philadelphia. He's out for the rest of the preseason, but should be back for week #1.
Philadelphia Eagles LB Phillip Hunt suffered a torn ACL in practice and underwent surgery for
it today. He's lost for the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers CB Darelle Revis (torn ACL) participated in 7-on-7 drills for the first
time in training camp earlier this week.
Minnesota Vikings CB Jacob Lacey (knee) will miss 2-4 weeks after having his knee scoped.
New York Giants S Antrel Rolle (ankle) said he suffered a sprained ankle, but nothing more
severe than that, and he hopes to return before the preseason is over. "It is a pretty good sprain,"
Rolle said Tuesday. "I always say if I can't get up and walk off on my own, it is pretty bad. For
right now, just from yesterday to today, it feels 10 times better. "There is no time frame at this
moment -- but as soon as possible. Try to get out there before preseason is over with and take it
one day at a time." Although his right foot is in a protective walking boot, Rolle isn't even
thinking about missing the season opener against the Dallas Cowboys on Sept. 8.
The Washington Redskins have placed S Phillip Thomas (Lisfranc) on injured reserve, ending
his season. He will undergo surgery and is out 4-5 months.
Other News
Philadelphia Eagles HC Chip Kelly won’t let a starting quarterback emerge for as long as
possible. “We’re going to pull the trigger before we game plan for the Washington Redskins,”
Kelly told reporters after Friday night’s preseason opener. “We have to have a quarterback in
place when we’re really getting ready and getting into the meat and potatoes of what our game
plan is going to be. That quarterback will be named.” In theory, game-planning for the Redskins
could begin before the week preceding the game. But Kelly was asked if the effort will begin
prior to the final preseason game, and he offered a rare one-word answer: “No.” Maybe the
broader answer to the question already appears in the depth chart, where both QB Michael Vick
and QB Nick Foles are listed as starters. Maybe they will be co-starters, with Kelly deciding
based on each opponent whether Vick or Foles better fits the game plan. Either way, the delayed
decision makes it less likely, but not impossible, that the loser of the competition won’t be with
the team as of Week One. If it’s so close that Kelly won’t even try to decide on a starter until the
preseason has ended, Kelly will need to keep the guy who finishes No. 2 around, in the event the
starter stumbles. There’s also a chance that Kelly knows who the starter will be, and that he’s
simply splitting the reps as a way to keep the Redskins guessing about whether they’ll face Vick
or Foles on the first Monday night of the season. If so, it’s a con job that is more trouble than it’s
worth, given that the sharing of reps keeps the predetermined starter (if there is one) from getting
fully prepared to run Kelly’s offense.
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News and Notes
Green Bay Packers RB Alex Green has no idea if he'll be here a month from now. The Packers'
leading rusher a year ago understands there's more competition than ever before at his position.
And Green continues to hear his name discussed in trade talks. For now, he's just plowing ahead.
"That's all I can do," Green said. "I'm just trying to take it day by day while I'm here. I'm trying
not to look too far into the future." Green rushed seven times for 16 yards. Green's carries came
strictly with the No. 2 and 3 offense, and he says he'd love to play with the starters before the
preseason ends. "I'd like to," Green said. "But whether it's with the first O-line or the fourth Oline, I still have to do my job as a running back. And that's what I'm trying to do ... just make the
most of my opportunities."
Atlanta Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez is expected to return from family leave by the end of this
week and rejoin the team for practice Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals DT Geno Atkins, who is entering the final season of his rookie contract, met
for an extended time with Atlanta-based agents Pat Dye Jr. and Bill Johnson last week, when
Cincinnati conducted mixed practices with the Falcons in advance of the teams’ preseason game.
But the confab was mostly just touching base, not a detailed rehashing of the team’s desire to
reach a contract extension with the two-time Pro Bowl tackle. Perhaps a deal gets done – the
agents have a good relationship with the Bengals, cut an extension for OT Andrew Whitworth
not that long ago, and the two sides have had cursory discussions – but there is still a ways to go
before ink meets paper. A fourth-rounder in 2010, Atkins has dramatically outplayed his rookie
contract, will pocket $1.423 million this year thanks to an escalator he’s met, and has a bargain
cap number of just $1.54 million. But tackles who can rush the quarterback the way Atkins can –
his 12.5 sacks in ’12 weren’t just the most by any inside defender in the league but also the most
by a pure tackle since DT La’Roi Glover in 2000 – are gold. It’s going to take a huge deal, maybe
a record deal for a tackle, to get Atkins to jump at an extension.
A day before Denver Broncos LB Von Miller is scheduled to appear in New York for an appeal
of his proposed four-game suspension, word has emerged that Miller was arrested for failing to
appear in court. According to TheDenverChannel.com, Miller was arrested Sunday for failure to
appear at a hearing on a charge of careless driving, driving without a license, and no proof of
insurance. The citations were issued last October. The warrant was issued on January 2, two days
after Miller failed to appear at the hearing. He was booked and released on $1,000 bond. “We
have been aware of the matter involving Von Miller’s failure to appear in court for traffic
violations,” the Broncos said in a statement. “It was reported to the league earlier this week and is
being handled through the legal system.”
Arizona Cardinals LB Daryl Washington was back at practice Thursday after going to New
York Monday and Tuesday to meet with the NFL in an effort to get his four-game suspension
reduced. He was denied, and the four-game suspension stands. “I thought it was a good interview
but I didn’t get the news I wanted to hear,” Washington said. “It’s just motivaton for me to come
back stronger for these last 12 games.”
That’s it for this week. The NFL preseason is in full swing, and there are less than three weeks
remaining until the start of the 2013 NFL regular season. Are you prepared? Do you know
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News and Notes
what's going on in the NFL? If you want to stay informed 24-hours a day, be sure to check out
our NFL “Quick Bits” feature and our NFL Quick Bits News & Views feature every day! We
are working around the clock to keep YOU informed! Good luck to those owners with fantasy
drafts this week!
~ end ~
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16
News and Notes
News and Notes
August 9, 2013
by: Michael Nazarek
This week marks the release of our NFC training camp team capsules. John Holler and myself
hit the NFC hard for your reading pleasure with 64 training camp tidbits of juicy information.
Brent Lathrop updates his dyansty rankings once again. John Cooney offers up a Perfect Draft
for 12-team PPR leagues. Cooney also updated the Masters Trading Edge ADP charts. Chris
Rito delves into the backup QBs around the league and offers his take on the top 10. H.D.
Coelho returns with a humorous look at your local draft and what to expect. And in case you
missed it, I updated my Sleepers list this week. An update of my Creepers list will happen next
week. In addition, you’ll see the release of our AFC training camp team capsules, as well as
more Perfect Drafts. There were some key player rankings changes this week, primarily due to
injuries. All are detailed within the respective position player rankings analysis sections. Let's
get right to this week's latest news and notes…
The Green Bay Packers have signed free-agent QB Vince Young to a one-year contract.
The San Francisco 49ers have signed free-agents WR Austin Collie and WR Lavelle Hawkins.
The New Orleans Saints have signed free-agent WR Steve Breaston to a one-year contract.
Free-agent WR Donald Jones, who spent the offseason with the New England Patriots,
announced his retirement today due to a recent advancement in his lifelong kidney disease. Jones
spent three seasons with the Bills before signing with the Pats this offseason. He was released
before training camp and had a handful of workouts with other teams before today's
announcement.
Holdouts/Potential Holdouts
There are no new developments regardinf holdout franchised Buffalo Bills S Jairus Byrd.
Injuries
Washington Redskins QB Robert Griffin III (knee surgery) avoided any setbacks to his knee
during the offseason and that’s continued through the first full week of training camp. HC Mike
Shanahan said that Griffin had a “good week” because he’s remained healthy and has been able
to execute everything in the plan the team drew up for him. Shanahan said that he thought
Griffin would be able to move onto the next phase of his preparation for the regular season after
the Redskins play the Titans on Thursday, although he declined to give any specifics about what
that next phase might turn out to be. “After the game, we have a little bit of a different game
plan,” Shanahan said, via CSN Washington. “If there is no setback, I’ll share that with you next
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17
News and Notes
week. The reason I don’t tell you at the beginning is if there is a setback, I’m not going to tell
you anyway.” Griffin has been participating in individual drills and 7-on-7 team drills with his
workload increasing incrmentally. He hasn’t done any 11-on-11 work to this point, which may
be a hint about what will be involved in Griffin’s next phase.
Buffalo Bills QB Kevin Kolb (knee) missed another practice giving QB E.J. Manuel all the
reps with the starting unit once again as he deals with a death in his family out of town. Kolb is
due back on the St. John Fisher campus Thursday night so he won’t practice again with his
teammates until Friday night’s session, the last practice before the team’s preseason opener at
Indianapolis. That’s going to make for a difficult decision for HC Doug Marrone and his
offensive staff. They have to weigh whether Kolb looks prepared enough to play in a preseason
game after nearly a one week layoff along with the fact that Manuel has now seen a lot more
work in what was supposed to be an equal opportunity competition. Marrone said Kolb is
expected to get clearance to practice and he’ll take things from there. “I’m going to wait to see
how the practices go,” he said. “Things could come up with that situation. We’ll probably talk
about that Friday evening, once we know we’re going to a Saturday walk through where nothing
should happen barring a sickness and I’ll have a plan set in place for that then. We haven’t had
discussions about that.” Marrone said it’s too early to say whether they would hold Kolb out of
Sunday’s preseason game, but it won’t be for time missed on the practice field.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert will start Friday's game against the Dolphins.
Meanwhile, RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) won't play, as a precaution.
Houston Texans RB Arian Foster (calf - PUP) remains out of practice this past week with a sore
back.
Cleveland Browns RB Trent Richardson (shin) and SS T.J. Ward (hammy) won't play in the
team's preseason opener Thursday against the St. Louis Rams.
Green Bay Packers rookie RB Eddie Lacy’s (hamstring) absence during Wednesday's practice is
due to “minor and precautionary situation.” Lacy (hamstring) did not practice again on
Thursday and may not play this week.
Arizona Cardinals RB Rashard Mendenhall (knee tendinitis) returned to practice on Tuesday.
Indianapolis Colts RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot - PUP) remains on the physically unable to
perform list, with a lingering foot problem. It means he can’t practice. And yet, as pointed out by
the Indianapolis Star, Bradshaw took “a few handoffs” in practice on Sunday. After practice, HC
Chuck Pagano downplayed the situation to reporters, saying that Bradshaw is “[j]ust getting the
mental reps.”
Indianapolis Colts RB Ahmad Ahmad (foot - PUP) says he should be ready to go in about a
week.
New York Jets RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) has been bothered by his hamstring, and was
considered an injury-prone back before this latest ailment. “I probably won’t play this Friday,
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News and Notes
but definitely next week, Monday or Tuesday,” Ivory said. “(By) Tuesday, I’ll definitely be full
speed.” “Yeah I’ll be back soon full time,” Ivory added. "I’m almost there.”
San Diego Chargers RB Danny Woodhead (undisclosed) hasn't practiced since last Friday. HC
Mike McCoy declined to specify the reason for his inactivity, but he is likely to miss Thursday's
game.
Houston Texans RB Ben Tate (groin) returned to practice on Tuesday.
Arizona Cardinals RB Ryan Williams (knee) all but ruled himself out for the Green Bay
preseason opener. "It is what it is. I'll be out there for the Cowboys though," he said.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Hillis left Thursday night's game against the Ravens with a
left knee injury.
Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green (bruised knee) didn't travel to Atlanta for the game this
week.
Atlanta Falcons LB Sean Weatherspoon suffered an open dislocated finger on his left hand and
will be out indefinitely, Falcons HC Mike Smith said on Tuesday. Weatherspoon did not
participate in the morning walk-through. "Yesterday in practice, Sean Weatherspoon injured his
left hand," Smith said. "It was an open dislocation. We are going to keep him out and the time
frame is going to be based on how quick the wound heals. It's a matter of the wound healing."
The wound will get stitched up and the Falcons will try to guard against infection. The team was
elated that Weatherspoon did not break in bones in the hand. WR Julio Jones (hamstrings), who
was limited in practice on Monday, did participate in the walk-through. He will not play on
Thursday night. "Julio Jones has had tightness in his hamstrings and we will keep him out of the
game on Thursday," Smith said. "It is a precautionary move."
New York Giants WR Hakeem Nicks (groin) said on Monday he’ll practice with his teammates
on Tuesday and that he’s “healed up, healthy” and ready to roll for the Giants’ preseason opener
at Pittsburgh on Saturday. Nicks has been limited since tweaking his groin on the second day of
Giants camp on July 28 and on Sunday did what has seemingly become his new summer
workout plan: ride a stationary bike on the sidelines while his teammates practiced on the field.
“Everything is going the way it’s supposed to,” Nicks said. “I’m feeling real good. Everything is
right on schedule.”
New York Giants DE/LB Justin Tuck (back) missed practice for a second straight day on
Thursday because of tightness in his back, which wasn’t what the Giants were expecting or
hoping would be the case. HC Tom Coughlin said that Tuck’s inability to practice left his ability
to play on Saturday against the Steelers up in the air. “Today was not what we wanted,”
Coughlin said, via the team’s website. “He’s not quite as nifty and nimble as we had hoped.
We’ll have to see. I actually thought he would work today.” Coughlin said that the jury was still
out on WR Hakeem Nicks‘ status for the preseason opener. Nicks has been dealing with a groin
injury since last week and both players’ recent injury histories suggest that caution is the best
course of action if the Giants want to avoid the injuries lingering into the regular season.
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19
News and Notes
Green Bay Packers WR Randall Cobb (biceps) was limited at practice on Wednesday, a day
after leaving early with a bicep injury. Cobb insisted he is fine and that the team is simply being
cautious due to injuries some of his teammates already have sustained during training camp.
Cobb was in pads but didn't take part in the team periods. He was mostly restricted to individual
work and running, but said he expects to play against the Arizona Cardinals on Friday.
Green Bay Packers WR Jordy Nelson underwent knee surgery on Monday. He is out
indefinitely, but the team is hopeful he'll play in the season opener.
Doctors attempted to correct a nerve issue in Green Bay Packers WR Jordy Nelson's knee that
has bothered him since his days in college, a league source said. The issue has flared up
periodically and unexpectedly, including at the beginning of this summer's camp. Nelson felt like
he could have played with the pain all season, taking medication and missing practice, but he
opted to undergo the surgery that he has been told will correct the problem. Packers WR James
Jones also underwent a similar procedure that helped him deal with the condition. Nelson
dropped out of practice late last week and did not participate in the team's scrimmage on
Saturday night. McCarthy said he is hopeful that Nelson will return in time for the regularseason opener at San Francisco on Sept. 8.
The New Orleans Saints have activated WR Marques Colston (foot) from the active PUP list.
Washington Redskins WR Pierre Garcon has run well through the first week of camp, showing
no signs of last year’s foot injury or the offseason labrum surgery.
Miami Dolphins WR Mike Wallace (groin) returned to practice on Wednesday.
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Cecil Shorts (calf) could miss the team’s first preseason game after
straining the muscle in his left calf. Shorts pulled up after running a deep route down the left
sideline during Monday’s practice. He sat out practice on Tuesday, but is encouraged by how the
muscle has improved. “It feels fine,” Shorts said. “I’ve got to be cautious with it, because it’s
still really early. I don’t want to come back too soon and really damage it. Right now, it’s minor.
I’m not too worried about it.” Shorts has been arguably the top overall player in training camp
for the Jaguars. HC Gus Bradley said following Tuesday’s practice that it was too soon to tell if
Shorts would be available to compete in Friday’s home game against Miami. “With Cecil,
there’s nothing major to report,” Bradley said. “We’re going to be smart with him. He continues
to get treatment, so we’ll get the information from [head athletic trainer] Mike [Ryan] when we
go in.” The 25-year-old Shorts is coming off a breakout season, in which he caught 55 passes for
979 yards and seven touchdowns in 14 games last season. He’s holding out hope he’ll be able to
take the field against the Dolphins for a few snaps. “I always want to play,” Shorts said. “That’s
just how I am. I always have something to prove. I don’t want to miss practice or miss anything.
If I had my way, I’d be playing. But whatever they decide to do will be the ultimate decision and
I’ll agree with it.”
San Diego Chargers WR Danario Alexander suffered a torn right ACL during Tuesday’s
practice. He's lost for the entire 2013 season.
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20
News and Notes
San Diego Chargers WR Vincent Brown (hamstring) was in full pads and practicing Tuesday
morning. He missed a total of seven practices.
Detroit Lions WR Ryan Broyles (torn ACL) insists he's healthy, despite missing a workout
Wednesday morning due to soreness in his surgically repaired right knee. Broyles said he didn't
suffer a setback in his eight-month recovery from a torn ACL, and skipped the workout due to
general soreness. He expects to play Friday when the Lions host the New York Jets in their
preseason opener. "Just a maintenance thing," the second-year wideout said. "There's no need to
go out there and beat my knee up if I feel anything. I was just taking a day off. Being eight
months out, there's going to be soreness. There was no need to push through it."
Indianapolis Colts HC Chuck Pagano said the MRI on WR Darrius Heyward-Bey's left knee
came back negative. He's listed as day-to-day.
Indianapolis Colts WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (knee) not only was in full pads for tonight's
practice, but he also participated in individual drills.
New York Jets WR Santonio Holmes (foot - PUP) remains sidelined and he has told friends he
expects to miss at least the first four games of the season.
Oakland Raiders WR Jacoby Ford, having an excellent camp when healthy, aggravated a knee
ligament strain that has hampered him over the past two weeks.
Chicago Bears WR Earl Bennett has a concussion. He will not play this Friday.
A league source says Pittsburgh Steelers WR Plaxico Burress has a torn rotator cuff in his
shoulder. The injury happened Thursday after Burress hit the ground hard while trying to make a
catch. It’s feared that the injury could end Plaxico’s season. No final decision has been made as
to whether he’ll potentially return.
New Orleans Saints DE Kenyon Coleman (torn pec) and WR Joe Morgan (torn meniscus and
partially torn ACL) are done for the season. Morgan will have surgery today.
The Philadelphia Eagles have announced that WR Arrelious Benn has torn his ACL. He is lost
for the entire 2013 season.
Baltimore Ravens TE Ed Dickson has a slight tear in his hamstring. He will be held out for a
week or so. TE Visanthe Shiancoe steps in as the starting tight end for now with Dickson
sidelined. Dickson could miss some preseason action, but the expectation is he'll be fully healthy
by start of the regular season.
Seattle Seahawks HC Pete Carroll said he is hopeful TE Zach Miller (foot - PUP) will return by
the third preseason game. He also said DE Cliff Avril (foot) was making progress but likely
wouldn’t be ready for Thursday’s preseason game against San Diego.
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News and Notes
New England Patroits TE Jake Ballard missed Saturday's intrasquad scrimmage with lingering
knee issues, though according to the Boston Herald, the decision was precautionary. Ballard
returned to practice Monday.
Denver Broncos TE Joel Dreessen is expected to miss the rest of training camp after suffering a
setback in his recovery from a June knee surgery. Dreessen will undergo another arthroscopic
surgery to further clean up his left knee, a person with knowledge of the procedure.
Green Bay Packers OT Bryan Bulaga has indeed suffered a torn ACL in his knee. He is lost for
the season.
Atlanta Falcons OT Mike Johnson suffered a dislocated left ankle and fibula fracture during
Tuesday’s practice, according to HC Mike Smith. Johnson is scheduled to have surgery next
week. He is lost for the season.
St. Louis Rams OT Rodger Saffold left Thursday’s game at Cleveland with a shoulder injury and
is doubtful to return, the club said. Saffold was hurt on the Rams’ second offensive snap, a pass
play. X-Rays taken later were negative.
Minnesota Vikings DE Jared Allen left practice more than halfway through Tuesday afternoon
with a left ankle injury that will be evaluated further, according to Vikings HC Leslie Frazier.
New York Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul (back surgery) should be ready for the start of the
season, in theory. GM Jerry Reese said that the team was hopeful Pierre-Paul could go Week 1.
“JP’s on schedule. He’s looking good, he’s running around a little bit," Reese said on WFAN.
"He’s going to be out on the field a little more than usual as we move along. We expect him to
hopefully be back, ready to go for the Dallas game.” But Pierre-Paul has felt the squeeze of a
double-team at the line. He knows the toll the crushing blocks take on his body. The back, postsurgery, is sensitive enough. Coming back too soon could be detrimental. So even though all eyes
are on Dallas, Pierre-Paul isn’t so quick to place a date on his return just yet. “It's not important to
me at all,” Pierre-Paul said when asked about how crucial the Week 1 return date is on his rehab.
“I already know that the d-line we have here is going to go out and get the job done. I'm very
confident in Kiwi, Tuck, all of those guys getting the job done. That's all it takes. They don't
really need me out there right now. I'm going to focus on my recovery. Everything will be
alright.”
Dallas Cowboys DT Jay Ratliff (hamstring) will not practice while the team is in California, a
source said, but there is no concern about his availability for the start of the season. He strained
his hamstring during conditioning tests on the first day of training camp and was placed on the
team’s physically unable to perform list. Club officials are pleased with his progress but want to
remain cautious at this stage of camp. The team plays in Oakland Friday and won’t return to the
practice fields in Oxnard until Sunday. Five more practices are scheduled in Southern California
before the team breaks camp on Aug. 16. There’s a chance Ratliff will work back into practice
before the team faces Cincinnati in the Cowboys first pre-season home game on Aug. 24. “I think
he’s fine,’’ executive vice president Stephen Jones said. “He’s right on. We don’t have any
concerns right now with Jay. “I think he’s moving in a good direction as far as we’re concerned.’’
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22
News and Notes
The San Francisco 49ers expect to have LB Patrick Willis back in plenty of time for the regular
season after Willis underwent surgery to repair a fractured right hand. Willis has not practiced
since suffering the injury during a collision with FB Bruce Miller. He has played with a broken
hand in the past. Willis is expected back within the next few weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik told SI.com's Peter King that he was “almost certain”
CB Darrelle Revis (torn ACL) would be able to go in five weeks. Revis himself is being more
cautious. “At this time,’’ Revis said, “I can’t tell you. But it is my goal to be ready for the first
game, and it’s coming along well.’’ Revis hasn’t had any setbacks as he’s worked gradually back
into action, and they’re going to hold him out of at least the first two preseason games, if not the
entire exhibition slate. There’s no point in risking him then, really, considering what the Bucs
invested in him.
Chicago Bears CB Kelvin Hayden tore his hamstring and is out for the year
Houston Texans S Ed Reed (hip surgery - PUP) said he is 75-80% healthy. He said if the first
game was today he wouldn't play, but if it was the Super Bowl today, he'd play.
Other News
Denver Broncos RB Ronnie Hillman is the first team tailback on the first depth chart released
this past week.
St. Louis Rams HC Jeff Fisher commented today that he thinks RB Daryl Richardson will start
for the team come week #1. "I think Daryl comes back as our starter," Fisher said about the Rams
running back competition.
WR Riley Cooper rejoined the Philadephia Eagles Tuesday morning, five days after he was
excused to receive sensitivity training following the emergence of a video showing him using a
racial slur during a concert. Cooper practiced with the Eagles on Thursday, a day after a video
became public showing him using a racial slur during a drunken tirade directed at an AfricanAmerican security guard during a Kenny Chesney concert at the Linc in June. He was excused by
the Eagles Friday morning and missed practice on Friday, Sunday and Monday to receive
counseling as part of disciplinary action agreed upon by the Eagles and NFL officials. Cooper
was also fined. Cooper apologized Wednesday both in an interview after practice and in a team
meeting.
That’s it for this week. This time is crucial to most fantasy owners, as preseason games are
getting underway and key injuries will start to occur. How do you stay informed? Just be sure to
check out our NFL “Quick Bits” feature and our Premium Quick Bits News & Views feature
every day! Remember, knowledge is POWER. Good luck to those owners with fantasy drafts
this week!
~ end ~
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News and Notes
News and Notes
August 2, 2013
by: Michael Nazarek
What's new in the guide this week? Staff writer John Cooney returns with his take on Special
Players for Special Leagues in our annual Specialty Rankings feature. John will be doing perfect
drafts in the coming weeks for several other types and sizes of leagues. The player profiles have
been updated with key changes to due to injuries suffered by WR Percy Harvin, WR Jeremy
Maclin and TE Dennis Pitta. Staff writer Brent Lathrop has updated our Dynasty Player
Rankings once again, and Keeper Spotlights are coming soon. Lathrop gives you what you need
to know! As usual, I've updated the fantasy player ranking analysis sections, the Master’s List,
our PDF Cheatsheets, and the MCP Board with our latest player ranking/projections changes
with notes included as reasons for the changes. I plan to scan the Sleepers feature this coming
week and make an appropriate changes/additions.
I will also scan the Official
FFMastermind.com Draft Plan and make any changes needed there as well. In the coming
weeks as things change quickly, I'll probably be forced to summarize the rankings changes in
this feature for a quick reference for our subscribers. Believe me when I say things will change at
a very fast and furious pace! Now, let's get to this week's latest news, notes, player signings,
holdouts, injury news, and miscellaneous news…
The Baltimore Ravens have re-signed FB Vonta Leach to a two-year contract.
Free-agent TE Visanthe Shiancoe has signed a one-year contract with the Baltimore Ravens.
Holdouts/Potential Holdouts
With the decision solely up to S Jairus Byrd on when to sign his franchise tender and report to
training camp, the Buffalo Bills are being patient waiting for their Pro Bowl safety to return.
What the current situation has not done is dissuade Buffalo’s desire to reach a long-term contract
agreement with Byrd. Team President and CEO Russ Brandon has emphasized their intent to
pursue a multi-year extension at the end of the regular season. "I can't wait for Jairus to get in
here. Obviously he's a great player and a guy we have a lot of respect for,” said Brandon. “Once
he's here and we get through this year we want to try to continue the discussions and negotiations
with (his agent) Eugene (Parker) and get him locked in long term." By rule the Bills cannot sign
Byrd to a long term extension until after the 2013 regular season. Once the July 15th deadline for
a long term deal came and went it made the end of the season the next time a multi-year pact
could be consummated. Having seen quality young talent leave before Brandon reiterated the
club’s plans to keep Byrd in the fold. "He's part of the core of this team,” said Brandon. “He's a
guy that was drafted here and developed here and we want to keep that development moving
forward. He's a great player and that's something we'd really like to have here." Brandon
indicated that there has been dialogue between Byrd and the organization, but pinning down a
day and time when the safety might report to the team was something the Bills CEO could not
predict. "We have open lines of communication with him through Coach Marrone and the
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News and Notes
players and GM Doug Whaley," said Brandon. "We can't wait for him to get here, but I can't
anticipate when he will be here."
Injuries
Washington Redskins QB Robert Griffin III (knee surgery) has dubbed the final stages of his
right knee rehabilitation “Operation Patience,” having accepted the fact it’s in his best interest to
reign in his ultra-competitiveness as he approaches a return to full participation in team
activities. Although Griffin said the “few reps” he got in Monday’s walkthrough signaled a
“bump up from last week,” HC Mike Shanahan said Griffin’s participation in Monday’s practice
did not increase. Griffin took part in the first three of the team’s 10 periods of practice, as he did
during the first three practices. However, he did some different drills Monday. During the
afternoon session, he participated with the full offense in a hurry-up sequence in which no
defense was on the field. He also took approximately 10 snaps during 7-on-7 drills and did
individual work on the side field while the Redskins practiced special teams. He performed
footwork and agility drills, and he went through the script of team drill plays with running back
Alfred Morris and receiver Santana Moss. “He look real good,” WR Joshua Morgan said. “He
look like he getting through his progressions real fast. He got his footwork down pat.” Perhaps
the most auspicious indicator almost seven months into Griffin’s recovery is he doesn’t think
about his knee while practicing, even though he expects to wear a brace on it all season. “I just
play football, and that’s a sign that you’re getting ready,” he said. “Consistently I forget my
brace, like I did on the first day … I feel great. It’s just about Coach wanting to be real cautious
with me, and that’s understandable and I’m just taking it that way. I feel good in 7-on-7s.” The
on-field results have been mixed, though. In 7-on-7 drills Saturday, Griffin overthrew two ‘go’
routes and a post. Observers debate how comfortably he appears to plant on his right leg at the
top of his drops. “That’s one thing we all pointed out when watching film — after the knee
injury, it was a lot harder to plant off the back leg,” Griffin said. “As the games went on, it got a
little bit better, a little bit better, until the Seattle game when it got re-hurt. “That’s one thing that
the coaches have been paying attention to. I’ve paid attention to it in rehab, and I feel like I’m
past that. I feel like I can plant off my back leg just like I did before the injury.” Shanahan will
continue to put Griffin through 3-, 5- and 7-step drops in practice to gauge how he plants the leg
and drives his throws. He’ll know Griffin is ready for team drills when that appears natural,
smooth and strong. That step — Mission: Accomplished — is still at least two weeks away.
Griffin expects the team to re-evaluate the extent of his participation at the end of this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert (ankle) practiced on Wednesday. In addition, RB
Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) was also in full pads, and practiced.
Houston Texans RB Arian Foster (calf - PUP) may be back on the practice field as soon as
Sunday. The 2012 NFL touchdown king suffered a calf injury during OTA’s, and has been
rehabbing. Texans HC Gary Kubiak spoke with the media after Thursday afternoon’s practice
inside the Houston Methodist Training Center, and was optimistic about a return for the Pro
Bowl running back. “We’re hoping Arian’s a participant in practice on Sunday,” Kubiak said.
“We’ll see how he does.”
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News and Notes
Indianapolis Colts RB Ahmad Bradshaw (feet - PUP) says he expects to be back in a couple of
weeks. As a veteran, he said he doesn't necessarily need preseason game reps.
New York Jets RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) thought he was ready to make a breakthrough,
joining the other running backs on the field for full practice, but that did not last long as his
hamstring tightened up, forcing him to the sideline for rehab. Ivory practiced Monday, his first
session of training camp, and when he appeared on the field Wednesday it looked like he was
ready to practice full for the first time. Soon after practice began, during individual drills, his
hamstring tightened and that was it for the day. “Hamstrings are tricky,’’ Ivory said. “It can feel
good and you can go out there like I did today and I thought I was ready, but I’m not ready. So
it’s a feel thing. I don’t want to push it and make it a two-week injury. When it’s fixed I want to
be able to stay out there and not go back and reinjure it.’’
Arizona Cardinals RB Ryan Williams has canceled his plan to get a second opinion on his sore
right knee. He expected to return to practice soon.
Jacksonville Jaguars RB Justin Forsett was helped off the practice field on Thursday with a
sprained right toe.
The surprise at Cleveland Browns training camp so far has been RB Dion Lewis. After not
getting a legitimate shot in Philadelphia, he has snagged reps with the second team offense in
Cleveland. He has awed everyone with his speed, moves, and catching ability, as well as the
pace he plays football. Everything is fast and full-go all the time. Now that RB Montario
Hardesty is out with a hamstring injury, Lewis will see even more reps and could put a
stranglehold on the backup running back position.
Dallas Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (hip/quadriceps) was cleared and returned to practice on
Thursday.
New York Giants WR Hakeem Nicks (groin) is "day to day", HC Tom Coughlin said on
Thursday. He's getting treatment on his sore groin. "They just want to make sure it quiets down,"
Coughlin said
Seattle Seahawks WR Percy Harvin (hip) tweeted that his injury requires surgery. The initial
timetable is that he'll miss 3-4 months of action. It appears that the team will make the decision
regarding his roster status. He could be placed on the PUP list and miss at least the first six
weeks of action, or he could be place on injured reserve designated for return sometime in 2013.
NBC Sports adds Harvin will have surgery on Thursday in New York. While one of Harvin’s
tweets could be read to imply he won’t play at all in 2013, Harvin is indeed expected back late in
the season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have activated WR Dwayne Bowe (chest virus), after he passed his
physical. He practiced with the team this this week
Miami Dolphins WR Mike Wallace confirmed today he is battling a groin injury and that's the
reason he led a handful of players being held out of practice today. Wallace also said he would
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26
News and Notes
like to play in Sunday's Hall of Fame game but obviously that's a decision for the coaching staff.
"It feels pretty good," Wallace said. "I feel like it's getting there." WR Brian Hartline also sat
out most of the drills with a calf strain. I'm certain if there had been a game today or a regular
season game this weekend, both Hartline and Wallace would be playing.
Philadelphia Eagles GM Howie Roseman said Sunday the Eagles are likely to replace injured
WR Jeremy Maclin (torn ACL) from within instead of signing a veteran street free agent. “You
want your young players to grow and develop, and that’s why you keep young players on your
roster,” Roseman said Sunday morning, before the Eagles’ open practice at the Linc. “You look
at the good teams in this league, that’s what they do with their players. They develop them, they
groom them, then they give them an opportunity. So sitting here, it’s not even August, we have a
lot of reps to evaluate our team, and it doesn’t mean we’re not going to look for ways to
improve. But at the end of the day, you have to show confidence in the players that you brought
in.”
Seattle Seahawks WR Sidney Rice is "off campus" in Switzerland getting some sort of knee
treatment, according to HC Pete Carroll. Carroll said Rice is not likely to miss any games, even
during the preseason. He said Rice will come back with "fresh legs" and "even better."
Cleveland Browns WR Josh Gordon will miss the first two games of the season due to a
suspension, not an injury. But it’s an injury that could hamper his efforts in the short term to
become as prepared as possible for a Week Three return. Gordon, acquired last July in the
second round of the supplemental draft, left practice on Monday with patellar tendinitis. “He
started out, tried to push through it, but we sat him down for the rest of practice,” HC Rob
Chudzinski, via the Cleveland Plain Dealer. ”It shouldn’t be too big of a deal.” The condition
didn’t develop Monday, and it’s unclear whether he’ll miss much time with chronic irritation in
the tissue that connects the shin to the bottom of the kneecap. “It had just been bothering him,”
Chudzinski said. ”He had gone through a little bit of the individual [drills] and it was bothering
him enough that we stopped it.”
San Diego Chargers WR Vincent Brown (hamstring) missed his fourth consecutive practice on
Thursday, but looked improved running on a side field.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Andrew Hawkins left Thursday's practice with a left high ankle sprain.
He is expected to miss 2-4 weeks.
San Francisco 49ers WR A.J. Jenkins did not take part in the main portion of practice Tuesday
after he was seen stretching his hamstring during individual drills. Jenkins, who did not miss any
practices as a rookie due to injury, added to the growing list of receivers who have been out. WR
Kyle Williams missed his second full day of practice. WR Kassim Osgood also did not practice
due to what appeared to be a hamstring strain. WR Michael Crabtree (Achilles) and WR
Mario Manningham (knee) are on the 49ers' physically-unable-to-perform list.
The Kansas Chiefs signed free-agent WR Donnie Avery with the hope he would be the speed
receiver opposite WR Dwayne Bowe and for competition with WR Jonathan Baldwin. But
Avery, who missed much of the offseason program because of an ankle injury, has had an issue
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News and Notes
with dropped passes and worked with the second unit. “First of all, it’s great to have Donnie
back out here and working,” OC Doug Pederson said. “He’s learning the system, just like
everybody else, but, again, two guys who are very versatile who have great speed, guys we can
put either inside or outside. But right now, we have Donnie exclusively on the outside, and he
feels comfortable there, too.”
New England Patriots HC Bill Belichick said WR Julian Edelman (foot) has been cleared to
come off the active PUP list. Edelman is present at practice on Thursday.
Miami Dolphins WR Armon Binns suffered a torn ACL and MCL today. He is lost for the
entire 2013 season.
Miami Dolphins WR Rishard Matthews (unspecified) is expected to miss several weeks of
action.
Baltimore Ravens TE Dennis Pitta underwent successful surgery Saturday night at a local
hospital to repair the damage to a fractured and dislocated hip injury suffered during practice,
according to a source. Pitta had his hip popped back into place and small bone fragment removed
from the hip with doctors not having to be invasive and affect the muscle tissue, per the source.
That's regarded as a relatively good development for one of the Ravens' top offensive players
that should speed his recovery time. Further tests will be conducted to determine if there's
ligament damage, though. While there is no specific timetable for Pitta's return, the expectation
is that he will miss the entire season with such a serious injury. There's small hope that he could
possibly return later in the season under the injured reserve-designated to return option. That
allowed the Ravens to get star middle LB Ray Lewis back on the field for the playoffs and
Super Bowl after a torn triceps last season. The Ravens have yet to make any official designation
on Pitta or declare him out, but are bracing for the worst possible scenario of the pass-catching
tight end not playing this season. “We’ll have to take a look and see exactly what it is,” Ravens
HC John Harbaugh said. “It’s a serious injury. He is going to be out for a while. He will not be
in the Denver game and we’ll just have to play it from there to see how long it goes.” Asked
whether Pitta could miss the entire season, one source said, “It doesn’t look good.”
Baltimore Ravens TE Dennis Pitta (hip surgery) and the Ravens have received a bit of good
news after getting the results on the tight end’s hip injury suffered over the weekend. Pitta will
still miss the entire 2013 season, but an MRI on his hip showed that he should be able to make a
full recovery from the injury. “There’s no ligament damage, no cartilage damage,” HC John
Harbaugh announced Monday. “It’s a clean break if you want to use that term, and he should be
rehabbing in six to eight weeks. So, it’s good news.” In addition to dislocating the hip, Pitta also
suffered a fracture. “The good news is that there’s a fracture, but it’s in the back part of the bone,
and it’s in the big part of the bone, and it’s a very tight fracture. So, it didn’t move at all,”
Harbaugh said.
Washington Redskins TE Fred Davis (Achilles) hasn’t displayed any ill effects from the
Achilles’ tendon injury that cost him the final nine games of last season. After having surgery
Oct. 23 and spending the winter inching his way back, Davis received clearance to run in the
spring. The Redskins held him out of all offseason practices to give him additional time to train
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News and Notes
and heal, and Davis got the green light last week to practice fully once camp began. Six days of
practice in, Davis appears to have recaptured his speed and explosiveness. He has run routes
without limitation and gotten open, beating coverage by linebackers and safeties.
Pittsburgh Steelers TE Heath Miller (reconstructive surgery) said that he can run, but doesn't
know when he'll be able to play in 2013.
Pittsburgh Steelers TE Heath Miller (torn ACL - PUP) has yet to be removed from the
physically unable to perform list and likely won't be for at least a few more weeks. However,
that hasn't stopped the injured tight end from working out feverishly on Field 3 during practice.
Miller was running nearly the length of the field dragging a heavy weight attached to a long
strap, and he looked strong doing it.
Tennessee Titans TE Delanie Walker (knee - PUP) says he should start cutting next week and
hopes to be added to the active roster the week after that.
Denver Broncos TE Jacob Tamme was pulled out with a quad injury on Monday.
The Denver Broncos have placed C Dan Koppen (torn ACL) on injured reserve, ending his
season.
Philadelphia Eagles OT Jason Peters left Wednesday's practice with a mild right hamstring
strain. He's listed as day-to-day.
Baltimore Ravens sixth-round draft pick OL Ryan Jensen broke his foot and will undergo
surgery soon to repair the damage, according to a source with knowledge of the situation. Jensen
is expected to be sidelined for roughly 10 weeks after suffering the injury late last week.
Cincinnati Bengals DE Carlos Dunlap is not practicing right now due to a concussion he
suffered earlier in the week. He is out for now.
New York Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul isn't sure if his surgically repaired back will be ready
for the season opener against the Dallas Cowboys. "I don't know, only time can tell," Pierre-Paul
said about playing in Week 1. "It's all on me to recover." "That's everybody's goal who is hurt,"
he added of playing in the opener. "I don't know. I can't promise nothing. I can't say I will be
back for the season opener." Pierre-Paul was placed on the physically unable to perform list to
start camp as expected. He did some light running on the side on Friday while his teammates
went through a conditioning test. The Pro Bowl defensive end, who is entering his fourth season,
underwent back surgery on June 4 after he still felt pain in his back. The initial timetable for
recovery has the defensive end potentially being ready to play in the opener against the
Cowboys. The Giants will take things slowly with their franchise defensive end to make sure he
will be completely healthy for the upcoming season. "I feel like I am at 75 percent," Pierre-Paul
said. "I have been doing everything they asked me to. ... The doctors said I am doing pretty good
there." "I am feeling great now, I don't have no pain bothering me," he added. "A back [surgery]
is a really, really horrible thing to have, back surgery period and you don't want to rush back. I'm
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News and Notes
not concentrating on the first game, the second game, the third game, fourth game, fifth game,
sixth game. I'm just trying to come back when I feel like I'm ready to come back."
Buffalo Bills DE Mario Williams had a second opinion on his foot as he was away from
training camp. According to the initial report, all have been told that the pass rusher has been
advised to rest the foot. A source said that the foot "should be fine."
Chicago Bears DL Turk McBride is the latest NFL player to go down with a season-ending
injury. The 28-year-old was carted off the field with a ruptured Achilles' tendon, the team's
website confirmed Monday morning.
Philadelphia Eagles LB Jason Phillips suffered a torn right ACL in practice today and is lost for
the entire 2013 season.
San Francisco 49ers LB Patrick Willis (hand) has a slight fracture in his right hand. The team
will proceed with caution with regard to his status, but he should be ready for the regular season.
Houston Texans LB Brian Cushing (torn ACL) made his debut in the seven-on-seven drills on
Thursday. In fact, he batted down the first pass thrown his way. “It felt great,” Cushing said.
“I’ve been telling guys, this is the right feeling. I’m playing football, making plays again. It was
a long offseason, but I’ve got no worries now, no residual effects (from his anterior cruciate
ligament repair). No pain. I can plant and cut. Everything feels normal again.”
New Orleans Saints LB Martez Wilson will miss 2-4 weeks after sustaining a left elbow injury,
according to a league source.
Houston Texans LB Daryl Sharpton’s groin issue has been mystifying, not to mention
disappointing, for HC Gary Kubiak and the team. Sharpton has struggled with injuries in his
career, but the last time the team saw him at its June minicamp, he seemed fine. Kubiak said
Sharpton “received an injection” Sunday and appeared to be feeling better. “Obviously, (the
injury) is a setback,” Kubiak said. “It’s a disappointment for Darryl and for us, but we’ve got to
give him every chance to get back on the field. He had a great offseason. He was excellent. So
hopefully, we can get him back out there.”
Chicago Bears LB D.J. Williams has suffered a calf injury. He is listed as week-to-week.
Green Bay Packers HC Mike McCarthy said he is not concerned about a knee injury to CB
Tramon Williams. It's a cartilage issue, not a ligament tear. McCarthy said Williams should be
back in a few weeks. His MRI is being sent off for a second set of eyes. The expectation is a
minor injury.
Denver Broncos CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (high left ankle sprain) is expected to be
out two to three weeks.
Washington Redskins CB DeAngelo Hall (ankle) said an MRI exam on Tuesday afternoon
revealed sprained ligaments in the back of his ankle. He said he’ll be sidelined anywhere from
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News and Notes
two days to two weeks. “Certain movements, I’m good with,” Hall said. “Certain movements, I
can’t put any pressure on it. It’s kind of funky. It’s all kind of new to me.”
San Francisco 49ers CB Chris Culliver suffered a torn left ACL today. He will miss the entire
2013 season.
Indianapolis Colts CB Greg Toler missed practice Thursday with a concussion sustained late in
Wednesday’s. “It’s not real serious,” HC Chuck Pagano told reporters on Thursday. “Again, it is
one of those deals where you have to go through the protocol so I think he was tested today and
they will do some treadmill running and things like that. They will go through the proper
protocol, test him again tomorrow and then we just wait until they release him just like when it
happens during the season, you still got to go through the normal protocol.”
Houston Texans FS Ed Reed (hip) remains noncommittal on playing in week #1.
Other News
San Diego Chargers RB Ryan Mathews will have to earn his carries under new HC Mike
McCoy. Early in training camp, Mathews isn’t being featured as San Diego’s bell-cow rusher
like under former HC Norv Turner. He has received snaps with the first- and second-team units
as McCoy uses Mathews in rotation with newcomer RB Danny Woodhead (New England) and
re-signed RB Ronnie Brown. “I’ve been raised with (Denver head coach) John Fox in this
league,” said McCoy, referring to his mentor with the Broncos and Carolina Panthers. “We
always played with a couple of backs. It doesn’t matter who’s in there. Keep them fresh. That’s
the big thing. Play the hot hand while you roll. If you’ve got to tap out for a play or two, we’ll
put the next guy in.”
Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jonathan Dwyer has stepped up his game. He said Monday that he has
lost 25-to-30 pounds by watching his diet and working hard. “I worked out probably like 2-3
times a day, sometimes on Saturdays and Sundays, too,” Dwyer said. ”Running hills and [doing]
all types of stuff. Not just to lose weight, but to be in condition.” He said he feels like he has
more energy, and that he’s more explosive and quicker in camp. And some of his teammates did
a double take when they saw the new and improved RB Jonathan Dwyer. “I just want to be the
best,” Dwyer said. ”Last year, I got a taste of how to play. . . . I don’t want to be just average, I
want to be among the elite.”
Washington Redskins WR Pierre Garcon demonstrated a knack for making some of the more
difficult catches last season, but in training camp, he’s making all of them. There’s been no more
reliable receiver on the team in the four days of practice than Garcon, who is proving that any
questions about the torn plantar plate in his right foot or offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum
aren’t valid. Garcon did have one notable drop on Monday when, in team drills, he took a ball to
the chest and couldn’t hold onto it. Otherwise, he’s proving to be even more of a No. 1 receiver
than last season, when he led the team with 633 receiving yards. QB Robert Griffin III started
to build more of a relationship with Garcon as the season wore on, especially once the receiver
returned from his foot injury after the Redskins’ midseason bye week. They both know that the
chemistry could pay off in a big way this season. “I’m gonna lean on him and he’s gonna lean on
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31
News and Notes
me and we’re gonna make things happen,” Griffin said. “I look forward to us putting up some
big numbers and going from there and helping this team win.”
Atlanta Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez is on leave from the team. He will not play in the first
exhibition game against the Bengals on Aug. 8th. “Tony is gone. Again, I don’t want to get into
details. His son is starting football this week. It’s his first season of tackle football and he’s
going to be with him. Our plan is that Tony will be missing the first preseason game but he will
play in the last two preseason games. That’s an update and I don’t want to be having a Tony
Gonzalez update moving forward, but that’s where we’re at right now. We knew this ahead of
time. Not to rehash it but Tony had made these commitments to his family prior to deciding to
come back and play. When Tony can be here, he is going to be here and be a part of it and I think
that was very evident by him being here for the first three days of practice,” said HC Mike Smith.
That’s it for this week. For those of you looking for up to the minute NFL information, be sure
to check our NFL “Quick Bits” feature every day. If you are not checking these features
regularly, you are missing out. DON’T MISS OUT!
~ end ~
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News and Notes
News and Notes
July 26, 2013
by: Michael Nazarek
This section of the guide will discuss the latest happenings in the NFL, which may have a direct
influence in the world of fantasy football. With each new release of the guide, there will be an
updated "News and Notes" section included to keep you informed of the latest news and rumors
which have occurred since the previous release. We will archive the earlier sections for
everyone's viewing convenience. As in years past, we will be using this feature to inform you
about sections of the guide that will be written over the next 2+ months. Remember, this is a
“living” document. Just because we release it, doesn’t mean it will sit and become stale over
time with no updates. You paid hard earned money for the latest fantasy and NFL information,
and that is exactly what we will give you, from now through the first week in September.
Now… let me get to what is and what isn’t in this initial early release of the guide. This
summer, our Premium Mock Draft is being replaced by our Masters Vegas League Draft, a real
league, which will be a combination of myself, staff members, and chosen premium subscribers
whom use our Subscriber forum. As a result, you will find no reference to the draft in this guide.
We have 10 initial fantasy articles for your viewing pleasure with this release, including our
annual Ten Demandments feature. We will also be adding several articles in the coming weeks,
covering RBBC, Pass-Catching RBs, The Return Game (Busting the Wedge), The Perfect
Drafts (PPR & Non-PPR) and several other new articles. Our annual Rookie preview will be
released in July, while our Training Camp In-Depth Team Capsules are set for an August
release. This initial release contains special Sleeper and Creeper previews, which will see
multiple updates. A group total of Seven Cheat Sheets are available in the normal PDF on-line
viewing format.
Keeper Korner columnist Brent Lathrop offers his Dynasty League
Cheatsheets once again this year. The MASTERS LIST Customizable Cheatsheet MS Excel
App. has also been released and updated several times already for your viewing pleasure. As
usual, we've incoporated our statistical projections into the Masters List. Our annual
EXECUTIVE DRAFT MASTER (EDM) MS Excel App. has also been released and updated,
as well. Our 2013 Mastermind Championship Projections (MCP) Board has debuted and is
fully customizable and contains detailed projections and comments for more than 475 NFL
players/team defenses! This board will be updated countless times when important news breaks
throughout the summer. We fully expect this guide to grow to more than 500 pages by the first
week of September, and the updates to number more than half a dozen.
Update 7/26: As you can see, we’ve added 9 articles to this guide in version II. They include the
following topics: Player Playing Percentages, Strategies for QB-Weighted Leagues, Magic QB
Handcuffs, actual positional Handcuffs for all 32 NFL teams, RBBC Analysis, Pass-Catching
RBs, Hangin’ in the Red Zone, Fantasy Analysis of Return Specialists and Zigging and Zagging
in your fantasy draft. In addition, John Holler returns with his latest analysis of the Rookie Class
of 2013 for the present and beyond. Furthermore, we’ve released Brent Lathrop’s Dynasty
Rankings Update with a look at position battles. We’ve filled out the player profiles and updated
the rankings (including Dynasty) and projections as we head into training camps. In addition,
John Cooney updated the ADP Charts for the Master’s Trading Edge. A big thanks to the entire
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News and Notes
staff for helping make this cut of the guide what it is, 400+ pages of great fantasy football
information, strategies, and rankings. And training camps are just now starting!
We won’t rest until every pertinant piece of information we can cram into this guide will be in it.
That’s no promise, that’s a fact. Of course, we continue to update our “NFL Quick Bits” page
constantly as news breaks and our special "Premium Quick Bits News & Views" preseason
feature returns in early August with viewpoints concerning key NFL Quick Bits. Finally, with
all of the training camps still dormant, we'll begin the release of this weekly "News and Notes"
in a month or so. Good luck to everyone with drafts this week!
~ end ~
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The 2013 FFMastermind.com Draft Plan
Version II: Early August
August 11, 2013
by: Michael Nazarek
In the past, subscribers have asked me to get into exact detail regarding how I draft and the
specifics regarding how I analyze the draft, my team needs, and how the actions of owners
around me cause me to alter (or move forward) with my Master draft plan. Thus, the official
FFMastermind.com Draft Plan was born. This plan is developed to inform subscribers of how I
actually “think on the fly” during a draft. As I've done the past three years, I’ll go in rounds of
two’s and make distinctions for non-PPR and PPR leagues as well as the occasional QB heavy
league. I can tell you I no longer play in basic scoring leagues and only play in 12-14 team
leagues. Most of my leagues are PPR, but not all of them. Most leagues have ten starters, so I’ll
take you through the first 10 rounds of my drafting process. This initial version of the plan is
based upon ADP taken from MyFantasyLeague.com in late June, 2013. I will be updating the
plan throughout the summer, as needed. Let’s get right to the first round…
ROUNDS #1-#2
Pick 1.01 – 1.06: There are five RBs I'd choose from for this pick, along with WR Calvin
Johnson. The mantra regarding QBs has not changed. The only way I would draft a QB here is
if the league weighted QB heavy with 6-points per TD pass, and only if I knew I could NOT get
a top 7 QB with my second round pick. As for my second round pick, if I have an elite STUD
RB on my roster, then I’d weigh best available RB or WR with my next choice. If a top 8 WR is
available, I’d likely take him here. In QB-heavy leagues, if I took a QB in the first round, I’d
take a RB with my next pick, unless a top 5 WR was still on the board and I felt I could get a top
14 RB in the third round.
Sample rosters after two rounds
PPR: WR Calvin Johnson, RB Matt Forte
Non-PPR: RB Ray Rice, WR Brandon Marshall
QB-Heavy: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ray Rice
Pick 1.07 - 1.12(14): You must assume that a top 5 RB won’t be available when your turn
arrives. If one is, then jump on him and consider the best available WR in the second round
(especially in PPR leagues). Drafting late in the first round, you get an early second round pick.
That’s a good thing considering you won’t get a top 5 RB. In PPR leagues, I target the best
available WR & RB with my first two picks. A combination of A.J. Green and Alfred Morris is
preferable to one of LeSean McCoy and Morris since it’s a long time until your third pick. You
would then be lucky to draft WR Victor Cruz as your #1 WR. In a non-PPR league, if you draft
two RBs first, then a player such as WR Randall Cobb could slide to you in the third, making
taking two RBs first in non-PPR leagues more viable. That said, in most cases, I'd still prefer to
go RB/WR or WR/RB in non-PPR leagues for a more balanzed approach. In QB-heavy leagues,
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I take a top 7 QB first if you know he won’t last until your second pick. I’d ensure that I take a
RB with my other pick.
Sample rosters after two rounds
PPR: WR A.J. Green, RB Alfred Morris
Non-PPR: RB Trent Richardson, WR Dez Bryant
QB-Heavy: QB Matthew Stafford, RB LeSean McCoy
ROUNDS #3-#4
Pick 3.01 – 3.06: In PPR leagues, with a RB/WR in the fold, if a top 14 RB is still on the board
like RB DeMarco Murray, I’d grab him here. ADP indicates that is a decent chance of
happening. The only thing that would stop me is if QB Aaron Rodgers was still on the board
early in the third round. Let’s say that isn’t the case, so Murray is the pick. With my late 4th
round pick, I’d go with a WR for sure, someone like WR Marques Colston (Tier #4 WR). In a
non-PPR league, let’s assume I went RB/WR in the first two rounds, so I turn to a RB if a player
like RB DeMarco Murray is available early in the third. Follow that pick up with WR Hakeem
Nicks late in the 4th round. In a QB-heavy league, with a QB/RB combo, I’d turn to WR early in
the third, assuming a player like WR Larry Fitzgerald was available, followed up with another
RB late in the 4th like RB Frank Gore.
Sample rosters after four rounds
PPR: WR Calvin Johnson, RB Matt Forte, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Marques Colston
Non-PPR: RB Ray Rice, WR Brandon Marshall, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Hakeem Nicks
QB-Heavy: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ray Rice, WR Larry Fitzgerald, RB Frank Gore
Pick 3.07 – 3.12(14): In PPR leagues, a player like WR Vincent Jackson could slide to late in
the third round. Follow that pick with a RB like RB Frank Gore and you have a solid
RB/RB/WR/WR roster. In non-PPR leagues, let’s assume I went RB/WR early and now go with
a top 20 RB like RB Frank Gore if available. Then I take a WR like WR Vincent Jackson early
in the 4th round. In a QB-heavy league, with a QB/RB combo, I’d turn to WR late in the third,
assuming a player like WR Roddy White was available, followed up with another RB early in
the 4th like RB Darren Sproles.
Sample rosters after four rounds
PPR: WR A.J. Green, RB Alfred Morris, WR Vincent Jackson, RB Frank Gore
Non-PPR: RB Trent Richardson, WR Dez Bryant, RB Frank Gore, WR Vincent Jackson
QB-Heavy: QB Matthew Stafford, RB LeSean McCoy, WR Roddy White, RB Frank Gore
ROUNDS #5-#6
Pick 5.01 – 5.06: In PPR leagues, I would target a top 2 Tier TE here, taking TE Tony Gonzalez
if available early in the 5th. With my late 6th round pick, I’d grab my starting QB, a player such
as QB Tony Romo. In a non-PPR league, I would target an elite TE and take him here. Let's say
that is TE Tony Gonzalez. Late in the 6th round, I’d grab my starting QB, a player such as QB
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Tony Romo. In a QB-heavy league, I’d target a #2 WR here, someone like WR Dwayne Bowe,
followed by a top 5 TE like TE Tony Gonzalez.
Sample rosters after six rounds
PPR: WR Calvin Johnson, RB Matt Forte, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Marques Colston, TE
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo
Non-PPR: RB Ray Rice, WR Brandon Marshall, RB DeMarco Murray, WR Hakeem Nicks, TE
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo
QB-Heavy: QB Aaron Rodgers, RB Ray Rice, WR Larry Fitzgerald, RB Frank Gore, WR
Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Gonzalez
Pick 5.07 – 5.12(14): In PPR leagues, now is the time to grab a top 3 Tier QB like QB Tony
Romo, followed by my starting TE if TE Tony Gonzalez is available. In non-PPR leagues, target
a top 3 Tier QB like QB Tony Romo. Follow that pick up with your starting TE, say TE Tony
Gonzalez. In a QB-heavy league, I’d take a top 5 TE here like TE Jason Witten, followed by my
#2 WR, a player like WR Vincent Jackson.
Sample rosters after six rounds
PPR: WR A.J. Green, RB Alfred Morris, WR Vincent Jackson, RB Frank Gore, QB Tony Romo,
TE Tony Gonzalez
Non-PPR: RB Trent Richardson, WR Dez Bryant, RB Frank Gore, WR Vincent Jackson, QB
Tony Romo, TE Tony Gonzalez
QB-Heavy: QB Matthew Stafford, RB LeSean McCoy, WR Roddy White, RB Frank Gore, TE
Jason Witten, WR Dwayne Bowe
ROUNDS #7-#8
Pick 7.01 – 7.06: In PPR leagues, I’d take a hard look at my #3 RB. One player sliding is Rams
RB Daryl Richardson, likely due to the fact that he has yet to secure the starting job. I believe
he'll do just that fairly soon. Late in the 8th, I look for a #3 WR, and take a sleeper like WR
Kenny Britt. In a non-PPR league, I’d grab the best available RB for my #3, say RB Rashard
Mendenhall, and follow that up with a #3 WR like WR Mike Williams. In a QB-heavy league,
I’d go for my #3 RB early in the 7th, RB Daryl Richardson. I’d follow that pick up with my #3
WR, such as WR Kenny Britt.
Sample rosters after eight rounds
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo, RB Daryl Richardson, WR Kenny Britt
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Williams
Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Gonzalez, RB Daryl Richardson, WR Kenny Britt
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Pick 7.07 – 7.12(14): In PPR leagues, I’d target a #3 RB late in the 7th, such as RB Ahmad
Bradshaw, followed by my #3 WR, such as WR Kenny Britt. In non-PPR leagues, I’d take my
#3 RB late in the 7th, such as RB Rashard Mendenhall. I’d follow that pick up with a #3 WR,
such as WR Mike Williams. In a QB-heavy league, I’d take my #3 RB here, such as RB Daryl
Richardson. I’d follow that pick up with my #3 WR, such as WR Mike Williams.
Sample rosters after eight rounds
TE Tony Gonzalez, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Kenny Britt
Tony Romo, TE Tony Gonzalez, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Williams
Jason Witten, WR Dwayne Bowe, RB Daryl Richardson, WR Mike Williams
ROUNDS #9-#10
Pick 9.01 – 9.06: In PPR leagues, I’d target my backup QB, such as QB Ben Roethlisberger,
followed by my #4 WR, such as WR Chris Givens. In a non-PPR league, I’d target my #4 WR
here, such as WR Lance Moore, then follow up with my backup QB, such as QB Ben
Roethlisberger. In a QB-heavy league, I’d grab my backup QB here, such as QB Ben
Roethlisberger, and follow that pick up with my #4 WR, such as WR Lance Moore.
Sample rosters after ten rounds
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo, RB Daryl Richardson, WR Kenny Britt, QB Ben
Roethlisberger, WR Chris Givens
Tony Gonzalez, QB Tony Romo, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Williams, WR Lance
Moore, QB Ben Roethlisberger
Dwayne Bowe, TE Tony Gonzalez, RB Daryl Richardson, WR Kenny Britt, QB Ben
Roethlisberger, WR Lance Moore
Pick 9.07 – 9.12(14): In PPR leagues, I’d target my #4 WR, such as WR Lance Moore, followed
by my backup QB, such as QB Carson Palmer. In non-PPR leagues, I’d target my #4 WR, such
as WR Lance Moore, followed by my backup QB, such as QB Andy Dalton. In a QB-heavy
league, I’d grab my backup QB here, such as QB Ben Roethlisberger, and follow that pick up
with my #4 WR, such as WR Chris Givens.
Sample rosters after ten rounds
TE Tony Gonzalez, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Kenny Britt, WR Lance Moore
Tony Romo, TE Tony Gonzalez, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Williams, WR Lance
Moore, QB Andy Dalton
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Jason Witten, WR Dwayne Bowe, RB Daryl Richardson, WR Mike Williams, QB Ben
Roethlisberger, WR Chris Givens
The six sample rosters you see above have many of the same players in them. Make note of
these players, as they are most definitely my favorite players for the first 10 rounds of fantasy
drafts this summer. Once you enter round #11, you should be targeting specific sleeper players
and consistent veteran fantasy producers for depth on your roster. Always make note of the
BYEs for each player you draft. You don’t want to ever get caught with both of your QBs or
TEs having the same BYE week. Above all, be prepared with your own specific draft plan when
it is drafting time. Whether it is based upon the 2013 Mastermind Plan or not, always be flexible
and ready to adjust your strategy on the fly. And don’t get upset if your favorite player is drafted
one slot before you planned to take him. NO ONE is irreplaceable! Have fun, good luck, and
happy drafting!
~ end ~
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Designing Your Draft Strategy 2013
June 28, 2013
by: Chris Rito
Publisher’s Note from Michael Nazarek: In case you weren't aware, Chris Rito and I won our
4th FanEx title in 2012. As a result, I asked Chris to offer his solid fantasy football draft
strategy blueprint for our subscribers to consider for the second year in a row. I highly
recommend subscribers take the time to read the following article, as it will offer great insight
into planning your fantasy football draft strategy for 2013. Of course, I have written the official
2013 Mastermind Draft Plan for your reading pleasure as well. Just remember, Chris and I
couldn’t have been so successful in FanEx if we hadn’t learned to listen to each other and
perfect a “give and take” dynamic.
In my oldest league (a local redraft with folks from work), we have an interesting
tradition on draft day. We draw numbers on draft day, and that number is the order in which we
get to select our first round draft position in an otherwise regular serpentine draft. This practice
brings some interesting elements into the draft planning, elements that I feel make me a better
drafter in my other leagues.
First, it forces me to evaluate a draft strategy from every position on the draft board. I
cannot go into draft day planning on having the 3rd pick, or the 7th pick, or the last pick in the
round - I have to be ready for anything. Secondly, I do not know who will be drafting around me
until moments before the draft; those who have read my articles on trading know that I am a big
proponent of knowing the tendencies of the other owners in your league, and using this
knowledge to my advantage in formulating a strategy. So the best I can do is to think about
which position in the draft gives me the biggest advantage (based on my personal cheat sheets,
and the aforementioned tendencies), and aim to land in that position in the draft. When you plan
for such a draft, it then allows you to be ready for other drafts in which you know your position - you have already worked out twelve different strategies for another league!
In this article, I hope to share some early thoughts on my preferences and strategies from
each position of the draft in 2013. Of course, some of you are in smaller or larger leagues, and
these strategies may not be in play for you. Also, keep in mind that these are based on my biases
and player rankings, and not necessarily those of the rest of the Mastermind staff. The final
factor is that I am also basing much on the mid-summer ADP of players in the early rounds of
drafts; as the season approaches, there may be some significant changes due to injuries, etc., that
may alter these strategies. But...I hope that the philosophies included here will still be useful for
you as you plan for your own drafts this summer even if the details change a bit.
Overall
There are a few things I will keep in mind this year as I draft, beliefs which permeate all of the
strategies to follow:
QB
• A "Big Five" QB (Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Newton, Brady) exists, and there is a
measurable drop off at the position after the top 5.
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•
•
•
However, drafting a top signal caller high will not necessarily give you a huge leg up. I
generally do not take a QB high, and this year should be no exception. The position goes
twelve-deep with quality starters, so being the last to draft a starting QB should pay off.
The next tier of passers is underrated and can put up very solid numbers while using
only a 6th-8th round pick on them (Ryan, Stafford, Eli, Kaepernick, Luck, RG3, Romo)
There is value to be had with much later selections that could be tag-teamed to possibly
produce stellar numbers (Wilson, Palmer, Bradford, Rivers, Flacco, Cutler)
RB
•
•
•
C.J.Spiller is going way too high (being drafted in the early 1st round) for my comfort
level, as he is a guy playing behind an O-line that lost both starting guards and will likely
be starting a rookie QB. I like his talent, but he likely will not be on my roster as a result.
On the other hand, there are several proven backs that are going too late and that will
provide draft-day value...either due to perception of age (S.Jackson, Gore) or recovery
from injury (McFadden, Jones-Drew, Murray). It may be possible to wait until late
2nd/early 3rd to draft a RB#1 and get 2 or more of these bell-cow backs.
Some new or part time backs will provide value and explosive potential in later rounds,
and will make an early pick of RB#3 less important as it normally would be in a draft.
WR
•
•
•
I only see 4 guys (C.Johnson, Marshall, Green , Bryant) as totally without question marks
at the position, and that must be taken early to assure a top WR option.
If you miss out on these four, then grab as many as possible from the next tiers and load
up on bodies, especially in PPR leagues; the position is deep, but lacking at the top.
Only three big name receivers switched teams this year; two of them are Wes Welker
and Greg Jennings, who each left a studly QB and passing system. One went to play with
Christian Ponder, one to play with Peyton Manning. Guess which one retains his ADP...
TE
•
•
Graham is going as high as the late first round and definitely by the mid-2nd round. I
have never before recommended drafting a TE that high based on the relative value of
the position, but I might try to snag Graham this year. The position is very weak this year
at the top, with significant risk among the usual suspects and top options; he stands out.
What to do with Gronk? I think he is worth the risk, and should be going higher than his
current 5th round ADP.
First pick
This one is kind of simple. If you don't think Adrian Peterson is your pick as the top
player in the draft, you absolutely HAVE to move down. Even if you have some other idea of a
higher-rated player (and I admit...I toyed with Foster as the 1.01 before his summer calf injury),
everyone else has him #1, so you should trade down and help your roster overall. He is the top
pick in any draft I have seen thus far (even in QB-friendly scoring systems), and you either have
to take him yourself, or get a king's ransom from someone else who will. The real key is what do
you do with your next selection?
I generally do not like being at one end of the draft or the other, and this year I again
think that the top of the draft is difficult place to be. In most years, the end of the second round is
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in the midst of a huge WR run after a long RB run in round 1, but this year I think there will be
some more WR interlopers in the top 15 picks that will let some people slide. Sitting at the turn
at 2.12 and 3.01, for example, previously the best bet was a pair of top WRs here, but this time I
think that the best strategy likely will be to take a stud WR#1 (if one is still there) and a RB#2. In
a PPR, you still may have to think about a pair of WRs since the top tier should be gone and at
least 9-10 more will go before you select again at 4.12. You can still get one of the "Big Five"
QBs on my list with one of your picks if you wish, but I would not do so unless the draft and
your cheat sheet dictates that the best value lies there (It probably doesn't on mine)
Second and third picks
Both of these have the same philosophy as pick 1.01, with the exception that you get to
select one of your guys at the turn before at least one other player, and then have to wait to see
what they leave you in round three. In either case, the die is cast for your first selection; at 1.02
you take your favorite of Arian Foster or Doug Martin, and at 1.03 you take the one of these two
that falls to you. Regardless of PPR or non-PPR system, these guys are head and shoulders more
valuable than any other players on the draft board. I have seen some rate Calvin Johnson or
Aaron Rodgers (or even Drew Brees) this high, and a case can be made -- especially in passing
TD = 6 point leagues for the QBs -- but I think that you can still get one of the Big Five QBs in
round 3 and have a much better RB#1 and WR#1.
If one of the Big Four WRs falls to you, you really have to take him in round 2. I have
seen high risk/high reward RBs slide to round 3 as teams at the wrap follow some version of this
philosophy, so some consideration to value might be given to a workhorse every-down RB#2 in
the 3rd round like Steven Jackson or MJD, or a riskier guy like McFadden. I recommend taking
the QB of your choice in round two only if you like having a stud (since the last Big Five guy
could go before you pick in round 4); and then you would have to take the best WR#1 you can
get in round three. If you took a QB in round 2, however, this may be a riskier move since your
first WR will not come until the end of round 4 (really bad if it is a PPR). Personally, I would
risk waiting on a QB, since Tom Brady has actually slid to the 5th round in many drafts, and I
like the depth at QB if he doesn't. I would really like to be in the 2nd slot this year to take
Foster's track record over Martin's; on the other hand, the benefit to drafting 3rd is that you can
perhaps get one of the best stud QBs or the last stud WR or RB#2 before the last two guys "make
the turn" in the draft.
In a 12-team league, I like the 3rd slot a little better if given a choice. You get to draft
before two other guys at the turn in round 2, and I see the talent drop-off happening after about
20 players in the 2013 draft. At 2.10 you only need one surprise or one QB to be drafted (a near
certainty) to be guaranteed to get at two of those players in round 2 and no significant difference
(at this time) in round 1.
Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Pick
This is where the first round draft strategy gets a bit dicey and varies from person to
person, and therefore it could dictate the rest of your early round strategy. Those picking behind
this position will have sit and wait to see what falls to them because I have seen a wide variation
in the selections made in this region so far in 2013. I considered this the "no man's land" in most
drafts in 2012 and I did not want to be drafting here unless something weird happens and one of
the top 3 guys I already mentioned slips to me at 1.04.
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The best value may be had by selecting Calvin Johnson here, and most drafters thus far
have leaned towards Megatron as his ADP of 1.04 attests. And you could easily argue that
taking Megatron + the WR and RB you will get in the middle of the next two rounds will have a
greater differentiation from your opponents through three rounds than you can get by taking your
favorite overall RB#4 here. There are a handful of players (RBs especially) that can be around in
the middle of rounds 2-3 which can give you solid RB production closer to a top RB than many
may expect. The only drawback to taking Megatron at #4 is that it does sort of tie you into
avoiding the top QBs and Jimmy Graham in round 2 or 3, since it would be hard to go into round
4 of your draft missing both a RB#2 and a WR#2.
However, I still think the best bet in these three positions are to take the top RB on your
draft board, and me that is Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles and either Trent Richardson or Lesean
McCoy (in PPR leagues), or perhaps Lynch sneaking into the equation also in non-PPR leagues.
Many drafters also like the explosive C.J. Spiller, so maybe this list expands to include him your
favorite RB in this class. Charles and Rice are a step above the others in security, and the
relative lack of confidence in Shady and Beast Mode and the others in early drafts reflects this.
My personal draft board has Charles barely ahead of Rice and Megatron, but these are shades of
gray at this point; all three would be valuable additions at this draft slot. If I am in these three
slots, I look for Charles and then Rice and then Megatron in that order and then look to make
sure that I secure at least one WR through three rounds, the order of selection depending on what
falls to me in rounds 2-3.
Seventh Pick
If you are sitting at the 7th pick, this is the easiest slot on the board....so if you don't want to
think -- this is the spot for you, because you can just sit back and wait for the top six to clear out
your list! This where the first major break in talent takes place on my draft board, so this could
be "no man's land" in 2013. Realistically, I think you absolutely will be able to follow the
strategy I recommended for picks 4-6, since I believe that in most drafts there will be someone
that takes some other surprise (usually T-Rich or Spiller) ahead of this point. This will leave at
least one of the top 6 I defined available for you here, if one is magically still sitting there at
1.07, he has to be your choice in a 12-team league. So what if that doesn't happen, and the top 6
are all gone?
By the time you pick in round 2, you will probably be at the tail end of runs for both
RB#1 and WR#1 - not the place to be. Obviously the top remaining WR here is still a
consideration in 12 team leagues, since the difference between the RB you get at 1.07 and 2.06
may not be much different either - at least not as much as the drop from your favorite WR (next
on my list is Brandon Marshall, but some like Green or Bryant) to, for example, Julio Jones as
your WR#1. Nonetheless, the better call may be to take advantage of selecting the RB you like
best; odds are that someone that you have rated as a top 4-5 RB will still be there and you can
have your choice of a guy that YOU have rated a little more highly than do others. In either case,
you really can’t go wrong here by taking a stud WR or the best remaining RB. No matter what
you do, you should still have plenty of RBs left in round 2 for a solid RB#1 or a REALLY solid
RB#2…or you could even get lucky and snag Graham or the last of the Big Four WRs as your
WR#2. Lots of options are possible here, and no matter what you take in round 1 you should be
okay taking “best player available” in round 2.
However, this is the spot in the draft where the draft strategy may differ between a 10team league and a 12-team league. In a 10-team league there is a much higher likelihood that one
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of the top WRs will get to you at 2.04, so passing on a top WR and snaring a top RB or even
Jimmy Graham should work in your favor. I prefer this strategy of considering the sole
difference-making TE here, even if you do not get a RB#1 you like in round 2. The smaller
league size means that you can even grab a "Big Four" WR in round two and wait on guys like
CJ28, S-Jax, MJD or Demarco Murray as your backs in rounds 3-4 with a huge advantage at
WR#1 and TE. I would take my chances with Graham/DezBryant/S-Jax/Gore (all reasonable
based on ADPs) over Lynch/Julio Jones/CJ28/Wayne, for example.
Eighth and Ninth Picks
Very similar to pick 1.07, I think this is an interesting place to draft in 2012. Regardless
of your RB preference (as described in the last section), there is another mini-break after 1.10 or
so, so you again could sit and wait and simply pluck the best remaining RB (surely Calvin
Johnson will be gone). You will still very likely have a chance at securing a solid RB#1 if you
like...but should you in round 1? I think so. I believe that this is a great position to take
advantage of the great disparity between other people's rankings in the top 9-10 RB#1's in this
year's draft, and I do feel that there are at least nine backs that have top 5 overall potential. Guys
like the ones I mentioned in the last sections all have gone as high as 1.04 or as late as 1.11, so
there should be a glut of solid RBs available around which to build your team. The nice thing
about getting RB#1 value this late in the first round is that you draft early in the second round
and can corral another top talent....well before the guys that spent a top 5 pick on a RB that may
produce somewhat similar numbers.
If you snare a top WR or Graham here, two particular guys I see as offering huge value
in the second round for these draft slots are possibly Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. I believe that
CJ2K will return to something closer to his prior form with the improvements to that O-line in
Tennessee, and Matt Forte should catch even more passes in Marc Trestman's offense. If you do
snag a receiver in round one, you could do a lot worse than getting one of these as your RB#1 at
2.04 or 2.05.
I actually really like giving consideration Brandon Marshall (my choice) or A.J. Green
(ADP choice) in this area. In most drafts, the second round for these draft slots brings a possible
choice of another "Big Four" WR or a very reliable RB#1, and the fantasy owner is left to select
his favorite remaining one or to pair up bye weeks, etc. Even if you are so inclined to snare
Jimmy Graham, the capacity to pair him with either a stud WR or an undervalued RB#1 in round
1-2 gives you the freedom to consider it. In a 12-team league, the third tier of WRs and RBs is
usually just about drying up at the end of round 3, so this also puts you in a nice position to
snatch one of the last few guys on which one can rely every week at one of two key positions.
On the whole, not a bad place to draft this year, especially for an owner that likes to let the draft
come to him.
However, if you are in a ten team league, then strong consideration must be given to
taking the top remaining RB on the board here. While I think that there is better talent and
scoring potential at WR in these slots, I do recognize that there are likely at least one or two of
the Big Four WRs that will make it around the turn and give you a nice 1-2 punch. In this
situation, you play the law of averages and probabilities and assume that a guy like Dez Bryant
can very realistically be your 2nd rounder and take the top remaining RB before those also hit a
cliff. This where the league size changes your strategy; there are simply fewer picks before your
second round selection, so the likelihood of certain players or positions being there in round two
changes dramatically.
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One caveat: if there is a large run on RBs in the first round and all or most of the top
WRs are still there, then at 1.09 you can also consider taking two of the Big Four WRs and
waiting on RBs until round 3. Remember that there is a person with two picks in between, and
the only surefire way of making this work is if you are drafting Megatron as the first WR off the
board here...but there is comfort in knowing that it cannot backfire if you take the WR#2. If this
happens and 1.10 and 2.01 are WR#3 and #4 on your list, you still get the top remaining RB you
would have taken at 1.09 anyway...AND you get the first pick of the non-Megatron stud WRs.
Knowing your league's tendencies, scoring systems, etc. will go a long way to helping you
decide from among many viable options. These slots are highly dependent on what others have
done in round 1 and personal preferences, so basically anything and everything can happen here!
Tenth Pick
As you may have noticed, I have listed 11 potential players already that I think make up
my first round of a draft (Peterson, RB Foster, RB Martin, RB Charles, RB Rice, WR Johnson,
RB McCoy, RB Lynch, RB Richardson, RB Spiller, TE Graham). In most leagues, there will be
ONE drafter that throws a curveball and takes someone else not in my top 10. This year, a prime
candidate to be taken in the top 10 would be Jimmy Graham, a QB or the 2nd WR drafted.
Actually, although I would not consider most of these guys in my top 9, I would not be shocked
if at least one of them got picked in your draft. A.J. Green has an ADP of 1.10, so surely
someone will bite, for example. If so, then the 10th choice is easy as someone has slid to you,
realistically it is most likely that he is from among the RBs I listed in the last section. However,
sitting at the tenth pick in the most common league sizes, you may either be the last pick in the
round or two picks from the end. I will give a brief synopsis of both options here.
If you are in a 10-team league, and assuming that Megatron and 8 of the previous 9 RBs
have been taken, you are at a position to do one of several things. I do NOT recommend even
considering the selection of a stud QB here since the odds of one getting to you at 3.10 is still
very high if you want one. A very common play in many leagues is to take the best two
remaining WRs on the board and this is likely the best move here. This often starts a mini-panic
and helps let some real quality RBs fall to you in 3.10 and 4.01 (which is going to happen this
year anway). As I do not expect more than 1-2 WRs to be gone in the first nine picks, this would
be a solid play as there are only four stud WRs as I have already noted. None of these Big Four
have the same bye week, so there will be no issue there. Unless two of the top 7 highly-regarded
RB from the previous sections slides to you, this is the recommendation I will make (note that it
might be hard to pass up a chance at a backfield of Charles and Richardson, for example, to take
A.J. Green and Dez Bryant). You could also substitute in Graham, and have a similar result and
path forward.
In a 12-team league, things get trickier. There are two teams that will each take two
players before you get that 2.03 selection, and each of them could be thinking along the same
lines as the owner I just described in the preceding paragraph. You simply have to take a top WR
in this slot, whoever that is for you, unless something weird has happened and all the top four
have vanished leaving RBs as the best value. Then in round two, you likely are looking at
snaring the best remaining RB, or considering one of the "Big Four "WRs as your #2, if one still
remains. Either way, I think that you will have a similar chance at a solid 1-2 punch as do the
two players after you in the draft, but you will get to select your favorite of the non-Megatron
WRs. I think that you are going to be nearing the end of the viable high-end RBs by the time you
pick in round three, so you probably are safer going with the RB, but have a higher potential
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payoff if, for example, you take a stud WR#2 and then have a guy like McFadden fall to you in
round 3 as your RB#1 (and he manages to stay healthy -- of course that could be a relative term
for him!). This latter maneuver is not for the faint of heart, but would reap huge dividends if
things fall in line for you.
Eleventh and Twelfth Picks
Philosophically, I think these positions put you in much the same position as the 9th and
10th picks in a ten-team league that I just described. You are limited by what has happened in
front of you in the first round, and have to think ahead to realize what is going to happen before
you select again at 3.11 or 3.12. I think a strong consideration again should be made for either of
these draft slots to drafting a stud WR with your 1st round pick, as there is a solid possibility that
the Big Four might dry up in a 12-team league at the end of the first round if other drafters in the
latter half of the round are also thinking this way. And of course...if you really want a stud QB
(which I do not recommend)...if you pick at 1.11, you know that the guy at 1.12 might take two
RBs or two WRs, but that he is NOT going to take two QBs, so there is no sense in taking one at
1.11. So, you simply take the highest rated RB or WR on your overall board.
Again, in most cases I strongly recommend taking the WR since there is a greater
scarcity at the top of that position AND I really like some undervalued RBs to fall to late in
round three that will suffice as a RB#1 or RB#2. Then if you go WR here, simply take the best
RB at 2.02. As it turns out, the RBs with ADPs around 3.11 were only marginally lower on my
draft board than the guy I took at 2.02, so it could be okay to eschew RB altogether at these
picks, but more than likely not. I believe that someone will take Graham or another non-Calvin
WR and so there should be a chance at getting one of MY top 8-9 RBs with one of these picks. If
your scoring system, or your lineup requirements or your opponents' draft tendencies heavily
favor RBs, maybe flip-flopping these two selections to take the RB first could be more favorable
for you; only you can know how much to value each position.
At 1.12, you obviously do not have to worry about what anyone else will do between
your first two picks. However, you DO need to worry about what will happen before you select
again at 3.12. There will be a small run on the stud QBs, but more importantly the first few tiers
of WRs will also be decimated. For example, in the FAD this year, over half of the picks made
between 2.01 and 3.12 were WRs. I think it makes perfect sense to take at least one stud WR and
see what falls at RB to round 3. Based on ADPs and drafts in which I have participated, it is not
unreasonable to get two of Marshall/Green/Bryant, and then in rounds 3 and 4 take a pair of RBs
from a list of guys like Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Darren Sproles, Stevan Ridley and Reggie
Bush. Had you taken a RB with one or both of those picks, you might be looking at a quartet of
AJ Green, Chris Johnson, RB#2 (see round 3 list) and Vincent Jackson. I think most would agree
that the first recommended foursome puts your lineup in a better place.
There is one caveat to consider if you are drafting later in the summer. Simply put, things
can change a LOT between now and the end of the summer -- both in the positive and negative
directions. Heck, a month ago, the TE position was solid at the top until Hernandez's and Gronk's
question marks arose, thus elevating Jimmy Graham into elite desirability status. And look at this
excerpt from the end of last year's strategy article for my strategy at 1.12:
"Adrian Peterson has been drafted VERY low in these early drafts, but a solid camp and
encouraging reports could elevate his ADP into first round status. If this is the case, then
the gloomy scenario I presented would look a lot better if an explosive All-Day or CJ2K was
in your lineup as the 1.12 pick. As I write this in late June, the odds are that Peterson will be
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there at 1.12, and you as an owner has to decide if the early reward is worth the risk of an
uncertain recovery from ACL repair. If he is the All-Day of old, then he is a steal at the turn
to end round one with a current ADP well south of 1.12."
In retrospect, I looked like a genius; in FanEx last year, Mike Nazarek and I tried heavily
but unsuccessfully to trade up for him in round 2...and still very happily got him at 2.09. And
then we rode him to another FanEx title. We also kept Arian Foster at the top of our draft list,
despite a training camp injury that made him fall out of the top 4 on many draft boards last year;
this just in, Foster did okay last year, and would have been the fantasy MVP if not for the guy
they called "Purple Jesus". Watch for things like this over the summer and from camp that could
make guys like Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson be worthy of 2.01
selections although many others may not see them as such. Maybe they will fall an extra round
to get them in round 3....but all those that passed on or missed out on Foster or Peterson were not
as happy as they should have been in 2012. Things can change, so please remember that these
late round analyses and options could be very different in late August than they are as I write this
in mid-June.
So....where is the sweet spot?
What is the best position from which to draft in 2012? I like 1.07 or 1.08 this year as a
place to really shine. You still get a potential shot at having a top RB scorer, and should get a
chance at a Big Four WR if you miss out or pass on Megatron in round 1. I think there is a talent
dropoff at ~20 players, so you are absolutely guaranteed to get two of those guys. Finally, you
also have a very real chance (and I would even say a likelihood if I am drafting at 1.08 in a 12team league) of drafting a difference maker in Jimmy Graham. Personally, I like being in the
middle of the rounds as well, since there are fewer chances for position runs with fewer players
in between, and predicting what will be taken is easier. The first pick is also better than in most
years since I think that this slot also should load your most important three scoring positions
with studs if a Big Four WR falls to you, and maybe even get the top player at all three main
positions if you like a QB at 3.01... plus you get the best fantasy player in the game today. I am
definitely intrigued with the potential for picks in the latter stages of the middle of the round like
positions 1.08 to the end of the round. There are some undervalued studs there and you might be
able to get some real enhanced value in rounds 3-4 before the talent pool really begins to thin.
I do NOT want to be picking in the 4th or 5th spots this year as there is too much
uncertainty and it these slots almost force you into taking a player with that first pick that I
generally do not feel returns overall lineup value as compared to the guys taken 5-6 slots later in
the round; it forces you into drafting for need a bit in rounds 2-3 when the value at RB and
maybe even WR is not going to be there as much. While I like the likely selections at slots 1.04
through 1.06, I think you miss the end of two significant runs, and lose out at both RB and WR
most likely unless you again pin yourself at WR early by taking Megatron.
In the FanEx FAD this year, Mike and I were lucky enough to draft at 1.07 and two of
the top 6 fell to us there (Charles and Rice), as described above. We took Ray Rice and followed
it up with getting the last remaining Big Four WR as I proposed (Dez Bryant), and then came
back with the top guy in the next tier of WRs (Andre Johnson) in round 3. We were hoping to get
Marshall or Graham in round 2, but they went in the final two picks before we selected (drat!).
Overall, we have received several bits of positive feedback from our foes in the FAD that we
have assembled a very solid team (despite having since lost Aaron Hernandez, possibly) We are
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also slated to select at 1.07 in the regular FAD draft later this summer, so we will see if we can
learn from what we have seen and done to get an even better team in that draft.
Conclusion
There you have it - one man's view of the best draft strategies at the top of the 2013
fantasy draft. If your scoring systems differ greatly from the "standard" performance systems, or
if your league size is very different, then there will be some adjustments (perhaps significant
ones) to these strategies that have to be made. Please check out another article I penned in this
draft guide which helps you tailor your draft list based on your scoring system and lineup
requirements; this may change the way you read this article as well! And if there are drafters in
your league that will be making selections that are off-the-wall, this may skew your draft
strategy as you adjust your expectations accordingly. Heck, maybe you just flat-out disagree
with my player assessments - in fact, many of you probably do! The key to making your own
strategies is threefold.
First, determine where the overall talent drop-off lies on your overall board; if given the
choice, align your selection position to where you can maximize getting the highest number of
players before that drop-off (to do this, you have to assume the worst case scenario, that
everyone is working with your same player valuations). Secondly, determine where the top tiers
or significant talent breaks are within each position ranking. Again, make sure your draft position
(if possible) and your strategy account for getting as many top tier guys at as many positions as
possible. Finally and most importantly, get to know the ADPs for scoring systems closest to your
own. A great draft is not taking the guy where you think he SHOULD be drafted, but rather it
lies in taking him no earlier than he NEEDS to be drafted to get him on your roster. If you
combine ADPs with your own rankings and values, and those likely rankings and values of your
fellow drafters, this will allow you to define a positional draft strategy that can help you
maximize your lineup many rounds into your draft, -- not just at the top as I outline here. Best of
luck - and happy drafting!
~ end ~
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The Ten Demandments
June 28, 2013
By God (as told to John Holler)
“In the beginning, he that is God created fantasy football. He looked and said it was good.” Genesis 17:52
God has a history of getting his word out through others. Moses got a lot of the scoops
back in the day. His son carried a lot of messages to the masses. How exactly I figure into this
mix I beyond me, because I have multiple people tell me, “I know Moses and you, sir, are no
Moses.”
To be honest, I didn’t ask for this role. I’m not overly religious. I work on Sundays, so
my visits to His house are rare. But, He is known to speak in mysterious ways and I’m about as
mysterious as He gets. Some contend I’m even sketchy.
When He first pulled me aside, I thought someone had slipped something into my drink. I
didn’t believe him at first until he showed his credentials by painlessly burning off one of my
eyebrows and, after he refused to put it back, I had to make the decision to shave off the other
one. He wanted His flock to know the secrets of fantasy football and to show faith.
Since then, it’s become an annual thing we me and the Big Man. He shows up sometime
after Memorial Day weekend and it usually doesn’t last long. I get the feeling he doesn’t like my
company all that much, but he’s committed to using me. As such, he lays out the 10
Demandments for the coming season. He’s still a little salty that his Commandments aren’t
followed – people get killed, neighbor’s wives are coveted, etc. Demandments don’t allow for
people to cherry-pick or ignore them. If someone steals, He will forgive them. If someone
ignores a Demandment, they will be held accountable on Judgment Day.
These are his 10 Demandments for 2013. Let His word go forth, heed the good news of
the kingdom and you may well find yourself in the Promised Land when the season comes to end
around his kid’s birthday.
The First Demandment
Thou Shalt Honor the Third-Year Prophets – While those of us at FF Mastermind
have been all over the third-year receiver leap in fantasy production from pedestrian to stardom
for years, it’s not been part a of His Demandments before – even though it may well should have
been given the consistent nature of the explosion of receivers entering their third year. Many of
them have been steals in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft because they had yet to break out.
However, this year, the Class of 2011 is already bearing fruit and could be enormous in fantasy
terms – bringing the non-believers into the flock. The list includes wide receivers A.J. Green,
Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith, Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, Vincent Brown, Greg
Little, Leonard Hankerson and Jonathan Baldwin and tight ends Kyle Rudolph, Lance
Kendricks, Like Stocker and Rob Housler. You want to get two of those players on your team –
the best upside value would likely be Cobb and Rudolph, but most or all of them will likely be
worthy of having on your roster at some point. We’ve promoted the third-year guys for a long
time. Now He is down with it.
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The Second Demandment
Thou Shalt Cover Thine Ass With the Chosen Ones – Quarterback is going to be as
important a position in this year’s draft as any. There are going to be a series of QB runs – the
first likely coming in the first 15 picks and then again in the turn from the second to third rounds
of the draft and again at the turn of the fourth and fifth rounds when those who haven’t taken the
QB plunge stick their toe in the water. This may involve some work on your end, but faith
without works is dead, according to the Lord. While no draft is predictable, multiple outcomes
can be projected. Depending on where you sit in the draft, your QB game plan has to be flexible.
If, for example, you have the first or second pick and take Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster, by
the time the draft works its way back around to you, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady
(at a minimum) will be gone. What makes this critical is an often overlooked nuance to fantasy
football. If an owner lands a stud QB, he or she tends to ignore the position for several rounds.
Translation: if you draft early, you will have no control over whether you get a stud QB or not.
You need to have Plans A, B and C in place. Plan A is to draft a QB in the middle or end of the
first round, land a superstar like Rodgers or Brees and spend the next six rounds attacking the
running back and wide receiver positions with a minimum of five picks (a tight end you love is
an allowable departure from that plan). Plan B is to take a RB or WR stud in the first round and
grab Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, etc. in the second round and go hard
after RBs and WRs for the next four rounds before you even consider taking QB2 (or RG3).
Plan C is to let the majority of the rest of the league pick the QBs off the board in a feeding
frenzy and you wait. And wait. And wait. Under the Plan C rules, you grab two guys in doubleshot fashion. By most ranking systems, the guys who will still be available in 10-12 player
leagues would include Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Mike Vick, etc. Your draft will
fall one of three ways. Be prepared for all options. Even in keeper leagues, if you have Rodgers
or Brees under contract, take the time to find someone who has a complementary schedule.
Plenty of mid-round picks have nice Week 4 schedules when Rodgers is resting. With QB vital
in most leagues, having multiple options to go with on draft day is necessary.
The Third Demandment
Thou Shalt Partake In the Sabbath Feast While Available – Running back has been
devalued in fantasy football, except for those who don’t end up with at least one bell cow. A
decade ago, RBBC (Running Back By Committee) was a four-letter word in the fantasy
community. Now, it’s becoming the norm. There was a time not long ago, that 25 teams had one
fantasy cash cow and backups waiting like understudies in the wings. That is no longer true. It
can be argued that the list of first-round/second-round worthy backs has dropped to about 10.
One would think that would even further devalue running backs. But, as He said in our last
discussion, “Not so fast, my son.” As is usually the case, He knows what He is talking about.
The finite number of running backs is going to force owners to do what they have always done –
make a skeleton of the cow trying to swim across the piranha-infested waters of the Amazon –
except for a different reason. Running backs will still dominate the first couple of rounds, but
because there is so little proven featured back talent, not a wealth of it. If you decide to “go
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rogue” with the third pick and take a quarterback or Megatron, other owners will be like
lemmings running off the icecap to a chilly, watery grave. They’re going to grab running backs
like they’re going out of style. There is no shortage of early mock drafts featuring fantasy
“experts” – don’t get Him started about that term, He’ll talk your ear off – running backs are still
dominating the first 15 picks. Those who decide to “do the opposite” need their dice rolls on
running backs to hit in order to avoid being fodder for the league money pool. Make one of your
first two picks a running back. Not because they deserve to be taken that high, but the ship will
pull out of port without you if you don’t get on board and you will suffer all year long as a result.
Running backs have seen their value diminished in recent years, but those who can get it done,
still lead owners to regular season and league championships. The Stud RB is an endangered
species, which makes having one in your house even more valuable and necessary. Rolling the
dice on a handful of questionable RBs is a death knell for many fantasy owners. Don’t be one of
them. Everyone will be taking risks on their last two or three backs in hopes of striking it rich,
but the more stability you have at RB, the more likely you are to be successful.
The Fourth Demandment
Thou Shalt Bring The Strong Into the Flock – Four years ago, we told fantasy owners
to start stockpiling tight ends. Trying to get on the front end of the wave and ride it out, we saw
that, in a growing pass-happy transformation of the offensive game in the NFL, tight ends – the
big guys who typically were blockers – were going to be a growing fantasy threat. That was
before Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez and a slew of emerging TEs that
have yet to bear fruit. Needless to say, He has smiled at those who paid heed to his
Demandments and jumped on a young stud like Gronk or Graham and rode him to the Promised
Land. Just five years ago, there was Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez and everybody else. Things
were so vanilla among tight ends, that many leagues just clumped them in as receivers – which
almost killed the position because aside from the Gonzo-Gates combo, if you didn’t have one of
those two, you didn’t really put much emphasis on tight end. It can be argued that, from a fantasy
perspective, the tight end crop runs 20-deep of quality players. You may not want to be the first
owner to take a tight end, but let your ears perk up when the first one goes. There’s nothing
worse than being on the back end of a run and feeling compelled to make a pick, as opposed to
jumping on or even starting the run. For the sake of argument, in an open draft where all players
are available, if an owner on the end of a draft in a 12-player league picks Graham, by the time
the draft comes back to that same owner, a minimum of four TEs will be off the board. It gives
“free picks” at other positions when other owners take a position you already locked down for
the next eight rounds of the draft. You have three options: be the one who starts the run, be the
one who jumps in with another TE and lets other owners know a run is one or wait until the
water quits bubbling and be left sitting on the dock of the bay. Either be first or riding that first
wave. Otherwise, the talent pool won’t be elite, but, if you double-up in the double-digit rounds
of the draft, you can get by with a TEBC (Tight End By Committee). Don’t be the owner that
ends the run on TE. Either show respect and step up or step off and vulture what remains.
The Fifth Demandment
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Thou Shalt Give An Offering of Faith – What often separates decent fantasy owners
from those who consistently set the league standard is their willingness to take chances. Whether
it’s the FF Mastermind rankings or those from the myriad of mooks that pollute the World Wide
Interweb with their own personal rankings, if there is a player that shocks you that is rated
markedly higher or lower than you think he should be, disregard those rankings. What He has
always said is quite simple – associate yourself with people you accept and want to be with.
Depending on how knowledgeable you are about the role of skill position players, He advises
you take the time in service of Him to go old-school and put pen to paper. It can be at a family
picnic that you didn’t want to go to anyway or a rainy Saturday afternoon. Make your own
rankings of players and then, as the hundreds of other rankings come out, see where you have a
player ranked in comparison, especially where your views differ from the “norm.” Need an
example? There is going to be a wide disparity of views on who is going to be the primary
fantasy back in Cincinnati – plow horse incumbent BenJarvis Green-Ellis or rookie Giovani
Bernard. If you believe Bernard will be the guy, where would you rank him in a team with the
philosophy of giving the starting RB 20 carries a game? If you think Bernard is going to win the
job, but everyone tends to lean toward BGE, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on Giovani in the
middle to late rounds. Just keep in mind that, if everyone thinks Green-Ellis is the man, you
don’t have to grab Bernard until after BGE is gone. It’s a gamble. But, as He likes to say, the
world is changed by those willing to take risks. After all, it’s your team and nobody else’s. Use
the late rounds to take players YOU want, not what the list tells you. Those people who set the
rankings aren’t doing so specifically for your team. Nobody more the Him believes in blind faith.
Pay witness and use the late rounds to take risks on players you feeling strongly in – whether the
rest of the league owners think you’re a heretic who has lost his mind. Drive fast. Take chances.
The Sixth Demandment
Thou Shalt Pray To the Sun In the East – This is a Demandment that has remained
relatively consistent, but perhaps no more than it is in 2013. Transport yourself at a late-Sunday
morning in October or November and you have to get your lineup in. Even in leagues that allow
changes up until game time, the one thing you are certain of is that 90 minutes before the early
Sunday games start at 1 p.m. Eastern Time, you know who is active and who is inactive. You
also likely know whether an injured player is “good to go” or not. Why is this important? When
you compile your draft board and you have two players that you view as being essentially equal,
He advises taking the player who toils on the East Coast. An example: You have Percy Harvin
and Reggie Wayne rated as essentially the same. After Week 5, Harvin has just two games that
start at the tradition 1 p.m. Eastern Time time slot. Wayne plays his final five games – including
every game in any potential fantasy football playoff scenario – at 1 p.m. Eastern. If Wayne is
banged up and isn’t going to play, you have 90 minutes to scrape your bench or the waiver wire
for a replacement. If Harvin has a migraine and they announce at 2:30 EDT that he is out, you’re
options have been likely reduced significantly. Too many owners won’t dump a player they
know will get claimed to take a zero at one position for one week. Fantasy teams get burned that
way. The reason it is a problem this year is that the fantasy power has shifted west. Two years
ago, Denver, San Francisco and Seattle weren’t fantasy hot spots. They are now. The problem is
going to come to a head, because you still have San Diego, Arizona and Oakland with personnel
that plays home games at 4:15 p.m. ET Sunday when not in prime time. To put this in terms He
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hopes you can understand, look no further than last year’s draft. How many QBs went before
Peyton Manning? Did Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson even get drafted? Guess what? Not
only are all three of those guys likely to be viewed as weekly starters this year or, at a minimum,
the 1B in a two-headed fantasy QB tandem, but so are all of their receivers and their primary
running backs. The proliferation of prime time games has diluted this Demandment in the past,
but, given the rise of talent in the West – San Francisco, Seattle and Denver are all legitimate
Super Bowl contenders – opting to take Eastern and Central Time Zone players when all things
are equal is vital. As He likes to say, “A little one shall lead them all.” It’s the little decisions that
can make a big difference when a league title hangs in the balance. Just ask Reggie Wayne.
The Seventh Demandment
Thou Shalt Read the Good Book and Learn From It – Fantasy drafts are full of
unknowns. Every person sees it differently. As you mark selected players off your own draft list,
there will be a couple of times when you say, “Who is that?” and just as many as you say,
“F*&#! How was he still available?” There are so many things that are out of your control, but
there are certain things that are within your control. Among those is the schedule as it is printed
out. Fortunately, members of His flock at FFM have made a point to highlight this for you,
showing you which fantasy players will have the most advantageous schedule during your
fantasy playoffs and who will have a Bataan Death March. Also, a Hail Mary-style mantra is to
make sure when you’re filling out your roster, before you make a pick you pay close attention to
when the player you selected has his bye week is. It seems so simple, but every year in just about
every league, some owner is behind the 8-ball with one week of fantasy Hell – hopefully, you’re
playing that dolt that week when four of his top six picks share a bye week. While every NFL
team has one bye week (for now), fantasy owners can’t come into a season saying, “I know I’m
going to lose in Week 8 because I didn’t know the Ravens, Bears, Texans, Colts, Chargers and
Titans all had the same week off.” These are things that are in your control before the draft. Take
the time to put asterisks and red flags next to players from teams that are going to have very
difficult paths during your fantasy playoffs, and, as He would say, “for all that is Holy” when
you input a player’s name at a key position (especially quarterback), between your picks, make
sure to red flag other players at the same position with the same bye week. You can’t give away
a week – whether it’s Week 4 or Week 12 – and expect to be successful. Never take a flight from
quality. That should be your mantra. Don’t be “that guy.” Take advantage of “that guy” when his
bye week hits, cripples him and he is forced to make a lopsided trade that helps him for one
week and helps you for the rest of the year.
The Eighth Demandment
Thou Shalt Understand the False Prophets Among You – Unless you are a complete
newbie, you likely know the tendencies of the other owners in your league. Thanks to the almost
every fantasy league having someone who breaks into the minutiae of record keeping, there is
probably a game-by-game breakdown of the history of your league and almost surely a listing of
the pick-by-pick draft order from one year to the next. If you don’t already have it, it’s available.
Get your hands on it. The great strategists of all time use the philosophy of taking down their
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enemies by knowing their thought process and tendencies. If you have an owner in your league
that has an allegiance to a specific team, having that knowledge is advantageous because any
player you take from that team can suddenly be the deal-closer on an in-season trade. On the
same vein, if an owner in your league has a history of taking QBs early, consistently being the
first to take a tight end, a kicker or defense in hopes of starting a run, being armed with that
information is key. Every fantasy owner, especially those of limited intelligence, has “tells.” –
things they do year after year without fail. Some guys are always the first to take a second QB.
Others consistently use three of their first four picks on running backs. As long as you know that,
you have the unspoken advantage. They paint a portrait of their draft strategy over time, such as,
“why does he always end up with Tony Romo?” Maybe because he has a man-love for Romo
that, if he ends up on your roster as your No. 2 QB, the trade offer you may receive two or three
weeks into the season might well be one you can’t refuse. Odds are they aren’t doing similar
research on your draft history. If you’ve played for any extended period of time and have your
own draft rosters, you can do a self-analysis and discover your own Oedipal tugging impulses.
Knowledge is power – whether it is self-actualization or quietly discovering your league rivals’
personal Kryptonite. It is especially important if you have tells on those drafting immediately
around you. If you have a good idea what they’re going to do and when they’re going to do it,
you can draft accordingly and potentially take the players they want away from them – if they
hold value to you as well. If you do your homework while others sleep, you’ve got a tactical
advantage they haven’t even considered and won’t see coming until after you execute your
ambush on draft day.
The Ninth Demandment
Thou Shalt Cast Out the Non-Believers – There are owners that jump on defenses and
kickers in the middle rounds of the draft. They invariably try to start a panic that never
materializes. While they’re burning picks based on last year’s performances, you can stockpile
the positions you need to win. The simple fact is that nobody – not even Him – can accurately
project kicker or defense points from one year to the next. It’s fluky. A conservative coach
willing to take three points rather than show his balls and take a risk of “7-or-nothing” will make
his kicker a one-week darling to a fantasy owner. A high-velocity pass that goes through the
hands of a receiver and plops nicely into the arms of an on-charging cornerback that becomes a
Pick-6 can’t be projected. Most interceptions come on tipped passes and the unpredictable nature
of points scored by defenses and kickers often renders both fantasy positions almost moot.
Simply make a list of the defenses and kickers you want to draft and use your final picks on
those two positions – taking the one you have ranked highest at either position first. You can
relatively accurately predict what position players will do. Just check kicker numbers over the
last 10 years. Unlike QBs, RBs or WRs, the same guy doesn’t lead the league in kicker scoring
twice in a row. And the difference between No. 2 and No. 16 is rarely more than 16 points over
the course of 16 games. Don’t waste your time. You add a running back with upside and another
owner can take Blair Walsh. In the end, odds are you come out ahead.
The Tenth Demandment
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Thou Shalt Bring In Followers From All Tribes – It is amazing how often this scenario
has played out: an owner is loaded with three or more starters from the same team and that team
is on fire. In a blood-sport league one of His children was a member of in 2007, another owner
had Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Steve Gostkowski of the Patriots. He went 12-1 in the regular
season and shattered league scoring records. He lost in his post-bye week playoff opener. The
same happened with a Saints-laden 2009 fantasy team. It happens every year. If you are too topheavy on one team, you are cooking a recipe for disaster. The sad part is that He knows you are
going to try to ride the lightning bolt. If you have Aaron Rodgers, you will be open to adding any
of his receivers when trades are offered. It’s human nature. But, He isn’t human. According to
His gospel, one should never have more than two players from the same team in a fantasy lineup
– especially in a one-and-done playoff scenario. Owners have won regular season titles riding a
one-team-laden lineup, but it’s never been the team you think it should be. Diversify. If you have
the talent, you don’t need to put all your eggs in one basket. More seasons have been ruined with
a 12-1 regular season record than having a Nor’Easter ground the Patriots in Week 15 and you
finish 12-2. In an idyllic fantasy world, He says you should have one player from each team that
you have rounds in your draft. That isn’t always possible, but, with the flexibility in-season
trades provide, the more options available to you reduce the amount of teeth-gnashing that come
when you’ve invested your entire season on one team that could have an off week when you
need them most.
If you follow these simple Demandments, you may find yourself in the Promised Land of
fantasy football. If you don’t, you may be held accountable on Judgment Day. Follow the Ten
Commandments on a convenience basis. Strict adherence to the Ten Demandments will set you
free…and quite possibly win you a fantasy title. Your draft hasn’t happened yet. Prepare for it
like it is The Rapture. You don’t want to get caught unaware when you need to be on point. Pay
heed to the Demandments and the truth shall set you free.
~ end ~
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Strength of Schedule 2013 – Masterminding Your Draft
June 28, 2013
by: John Cooney
An annual ritual of just about every fantasy football “general manager” is researching the
statistics of players from the previous season as an integral part of preparing a draft plan for the
up-coming fantasy football schedule. Passing yards and touchdowns are usually the key
categories studied for quarterbacks. The main recipients of the passers’ offerings, the wide
receivers and tight ends, are valued mostly by the number of receptions, receiving yards and
touchdowns. Running backs, traditionally the building blocks of most fantasy drafts, are sorted
by rushing yards, receptions, total touches (carries + receptions) by the astute and touchdowns.
Crunching these tell-tale statistics helps to paint a picture of a particular players use,
effectiveness and, in some cases durability over the course of the last sixteen to twenty games.
For a bigger picture, fantasy players also look at another annual statistical release geared toward
projection of success (or disappointment); Strength Of Schedule (SOS). The common SOS
delves into the previous season combined wins and losses of a particular team’s opponents on
the up-coming schedule for the new season. Each off-season in late April football fans, sports
radio hosts, beat reporters and gridiron TV analysts anxiously await as the NFL reveals the new
slate of games on tap for each organization. The debates begin as the breakdowns of the weekly
matchups progress into a hypothetical win-loss record for each club, mapping out projected postseason bound teams and cellar-dwellers. Strength Of Schedule, or SOS, in this format creates an
idea of which teams will likely prosper, and which may fall flat. But projected wins and losses
doesn’t help the fantasy football nation identify which players are likely to have All-Pro
production, breakout performances or sleeper potential. If you are going to Mastermind a draft
plan with purpose, focus and aggressiveness, where the potential of players is based on a
meaningful process of evaluation and common sense, then a true FANTASY Strength Of
Schedule should be utilized.
What is a SOS established through a meaningful process and common sense? Let’s get right
down to the brass tacks. A Strength Of Schedule dedicated to fantasy football use looks at a
team’s slate of games and the “strength” of the defenses they will line up against, not wins and
losses. Overall defensive ranking from the previous year is too broad a category to work
effectively. The SOS has to be broken up into two separate rankings; SOS vs. the pass and SOS
against the run. SOS-Pass gives an indication of which quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends
may or may not succeed in 2013. A season set against defenses weak in pass defense would
likely translate into solid production by a passer and his receiving crew. Conversely, a schedule
loaded with teams strong in air defense would run up a red flag for passing game talent playing
that set of games. The same holds true for a SOS-Run.
Sounds simple enough. But how do we create an effective SOS for pass and run? What statistics
should carry the most weight in determining pass defense ranking or the strength of run
defenses?
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Let’s cover SOS-Pass first. The categories that are key for fantasy footballers in determining
pass defense strength are Yards Per pass Attempt (YPA), Touch Down passes allowed (TD)
and completion percentage (PCT). A sub-category to consider for next-level fantasy evaluation
is number of pass plays over twenty yards allowed. YPA is the first factor and used because it is
play-specific. The YPA against a pass-D unit is a more accurate “tell” than total passing yards in
a season or a per-game average. Total yards allowed or total yards allowed per game fail to tell
us the volume of pass attempts a defense faced. Was a team’s pass defense getting blown away
each weekend or are the total yards accumulated via a high volume of pass attempts against,
which may indicate a good pass D? Here is where common sense comes into play. Compare two
pass defenses allowing a hypothetical 3800 yards in a season (or 238 pass yards a game). Team
A’s opposition tends to pass more often, averaging 38 pass attempts a game against them,
allowing a tight 6.3 YPA. Team B opponents put it up an average of 30 times a tilt, with Team B
getting burned for 7.9 an attempt. Both teams “allow” 238 passing yards a game (or 3800 a
season), but Team B is the poorer pass defense, getting abused at 7.9 YPA while Team A proves
to be stingier in coverage (6.3 YPA). Team B would be ranked lower, and a more attractive
opponent on a schedule. Touchdowns allowed through the air is an obvious stat line that is
charted in a SOS-Pass. No need to expand any more than a defense that is beaten to the endzone
often is very attractive to a fantasy QB or WR/TE. The third category in the SOS-Pass is not as
obvious; completion percentage against. It is not a statistic that “counts” in fantasy football, but
in a common sense approach, if a team allows a high percentage of passes to be completed
against them, chances are that defense cannot get off the field. If a defense cannot stop drives
and get off the field, the skill offensive positions (in this case with a SOS-Pass, QBs, WRs and
TE) are seeing more plays in the game. More plays equals more snaps by the offense, and more
fantasy production by those skill players. Passers attempt more throws, receivers and tight ends
see more targets, leading to more receptions (PPR), yards and chances for endzone dances. YPA,
TDs and PCT, key components for a fantasy-friendly SOS versus the pass.
Breaking down SOS-Run, the key again is to “individualize” the defensive strengths and
weaknesses. As with SOS-Pass, look past the broad stat of total rushing yards allowed in a
season or on a per-game average. Instead, the top run-D indicator is Yards Per Carry allowed
(YPC). Isolating the effectiveness of a run defense on a per carry basis, we can see which teams
are soft and consistently gashed for big gains. Big gains for running backs lead to big plays and
solid run production with less carries. A ground defense that is wrecked for 116 yards a game at
5.2 YPC is RB gold as the back facing that D needs just 22 carries to make it work for you. On
the other hand, another defense allowing 116 yards a game on the ground at 3.5 a shot… well, a
tailback needs to work extra hard and see a high volume of rush attempts to get it done. In
today’s NFL, high carry numbers by running backs are rare and outdated. So, YPC is ranked
accordingly in the first method of setting a SOS-Run. The second set of numbers that weigh
heavily is rushing TouchDowns allowed. Again, self-explanatory; love the ground forces that
cannot keep the ball out of the endzone. The third category is total runs allowed over 20 yards.
This gets back to micro-evaluation as we establish which teams are poor at second-level tackling
and become prime targets for playmaking halfbacks. A run defense that allows more big gainers
on the ground again is very susceptible to giving up long TDs, thus instant offense and points are
more likely. SOS-Run is ranked by YPC (yards per carry), TDs and 20+ (runs of 20-plus yards).
Next, a rating “formula” needs to be established using those fantasy-specific statistics. No need
to get into “money-ball Sabermetrics” here. Each category (YPA, TD, PCT for SOS-Pass)(YPC,
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TD, 20+ for SOS-Run) is ranked from 1-32 (1 = tough defenses; 32 = weak defenses), with the
rank becoming its own point value. Using a 2011 example, Tampa Bay’s run defense ranked 31st
in YPC (5.0 YPC), 32nd or dead last in rush TDs allowed (26) and 32nd in giving up runs of 20plus yards (31). The evaluation point assessments would be 31+32+32, for a total run defense
score of 95. On the flip-side, San Francisco’s run D ranked 1st in all three statistics, meaning they
were assessed 1+1+1… an astounding 3, the best run D for 2011. The same breakdown is
applied to each team. With the three categories totaled for each defense, we then rank them
according to the combined total. Tampa Bay’s 95 sets their run defense as the worst in 2011 and
the 49ers combined score of 3 puts them atop the list. The same process is followed for the pass
defense categories. That process found that the Minnesota Vikings ranked last in the NFL (32nd)
against the pass while the Baltimore Ravens were the league’s best (1st). The total rank points (1
to 32) for PASS and the total rank points for RUN for each team are then sorted, providing us
with a fantasy-friendly defensive ranking for both categories.
Updated defensive information is now inserted into the 2013 NFL schedule, substituting the
FANTASY PASS and RUN ranking number for the actual opponent each week. For instance,
Minnesota plays Green Bay twice on their schedule in 2013 (as always), weeks 8 and 12. Where
Green Bay appears in the schedule, their defensive pass value (or rank) of seven (7) is inserted as
we create the SOS-Pass chart. Remember, we are making a SOS for both the pass and the run. A
second spreadsheet is established for the run with the Packer run-D value of twenty-one (21) is
inserted. This process is completed throughout the entire 2013 NFL schedule; once for a
complete PASS schedule and again for a complete RUN schedule.
We now have two full 17-game schedules with defensive pass and run scores for each team. The
final action to complete the SOS is to total each teams 17 week slate, then sort the totals.
Example; the Steelers play Tennessee in week one. Since the Titans are the 26th ranked pass D in
OUR chart, Pitt’s week one carries a 26. Week two Pittsburgh plays the Bengals, 10th rated pass
; insert 10. Week three it’s da’ Bears with a 4 and skipping to week five we see a bye (0), week
six at the Jets (5), and so on. The 17-week schedule, totaled out, gives the Steelers a semi-tough
PASS-SOS ranking for 2013, 14th hardest. Again, the same ranking process is done to create the
final RUN-SOS.
Fine-tuning the Fantasy SOS, break it down into various week splits. I personally eliminate week
17 entirely from SOS evaluations. Most often week 17 games have little to no value for
fanballers as week 16 is generally “title week”. Also, week 17 is a contest where head coaches
tend to rest star players, cut back on key playing time and/or take the opportunity to get a look at
rookies or reserves, giving them extended action. I also modify the SOS into two main splits; a
SOS for weeks 1-13 (fantasy regular season), and a SOS for weeks 14-16 (fantasy post-season).
This creates a forward plan helping to target players who are likely to have solid performances
for most of the season yet struggle when it counts the most, or on the flip side, become playoff
keys despite a tough regular season.
The process of creating a fantasy football SOS for both the run and the pass may sound a bit
confusing, tedious and time-consuming. For some, it is. That is why Fantasy Football
Mastermind is here. We do the work for you. We breakdown the plays, the statistics and the
performances that truly make a difference in winning a fantasy football championship. I’ve used
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my own SOS format for years, tweaking the method annually until I narrowed down what
numbers work and which stats only muddy the evaluation. Personally, I participate in two
leagues faithfully. Over the past five seasons I’ve experimented in the use of my SOS in the two
leagues to create some evidence of effectiveness. In one league I follow my SOS closely while in
the second one I “relax” my dedication to the SOS. The league where I maintain SOS integrity, I
have never missed the post-season and have won two titles in the five year experiment. In the
other league where I purposely stray from my SOS plan, I have missed qualifying for the
playoffs two of the past five seasons, and barely made it in the post season in a third.
Strength Of Schedule; IT WORKS!
And now, here is the complete Strength Of Schedule breakdown as we head into the 2013
Fantasy Draft. Teams at the top sport the most attractive SOS and you want to target players
from these teams. Bottom ranked teams are players that you might want to avoid.
SOS-PASS, WEEKS 1-13 SORTED BY RANK (2013)
FANTASY FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON
PASS
DEN
PHI
DAL
OAK
SD
NYJ
MIA
ATL
KC
HOU
NYG
CAR
SEA
ARI
TB
SF
BUF
WAS
PIT
CHI
JAC
NO
GB
IND
1
19
25
32
22
9
30
17
31
20
18
27
3
12
15
5
7
28
23
26
10
29
21
2
24
2
32
18
29
20
23
28
22
15
27
26
6
13
2
14
31
3
12
7
10
8
24
30
25
16
3
24
29
15
6
26
13
21
16
23
19
12
32
20
31
28
22
5
14
4
1
3
11
10
2
4
23
6
18
25
27
26
31
28
32
3
29
Bye
9
30
11
15
19
24
8
14
22
16
Bye
20
5
27
32
6
18
24
21
19
5
26
2
23
11
22
12
Bye
9
17
Bye
Bye
31
15
4
14
3
6
20
30
25
29
22
1
Bye
Bye
24
15
4
8
26
2
23
11
10
27
5
32
6
28
19
18
7
22
27
23
Bye
20
28
13
30
9
29
8
15
11
3
21
26
16
4
19
25
18
Bye
17
6
8
25
32
14
1
Bye
10
28
11
17
Bye
23
30
15
21
12
20
31
6
24
Bye
2
13
8
Bye
9
Bye
24
8
23
25
31
10
12
13
22
Bye
21
30
Bye
3
Bye
29
18
28
7
Bye
5
4
9
10
18
7
31
32
6
Bye
30
3
Bye
11
24
2
21
9
16
12
1
8
13
14
26
27
23
15
11
29
25
Bye
9
16
13
18
30
6
24
7
28
8
20
21
31
5
23
14
19
11
2
32
26
12
28
Bye
32
26
29
19
12
31
18
20
27
16
Bye
22
14
25
Bye
2
17
15
9
21
8
11
13
29
11
24
27
10
16
5
13
6
28
25
30
31
23
12
15
21
32
19
8
17
3
14
26
SOS
296
266
257
238
237
236
226
225
221
217
215
209
207
202
197
196
194
188
187
184
182
181
176
176
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TEN
CLE
CIN
NE
STL
MIN
DET
BAL
1
16
4
13
11
14
8
6
9
19
1
5
21
4
11
17
18
8
7
30
27
17
25
9
5
10
17
21
2
1
4
13
29
13
28
10
20
Bye
7
16
3
14
13
31
9
12
17
7
2
7
14
5
12
32
10
1
Bye
29
5
16
3
7
27
Bye
15
19
16
1
26
27
Bye
17
20
Bye
19
Bye
22
25
4
10
22
10
17
12
Bye
3
1
4
24
1
Bye
6
4
7
30
5
22
20
18
9
2
4
7
1
170
166
159
159
159
153
151
106
In this spreadsheet, it is evident that QBs Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Matt
Ryan appear to be headed for big seasons. The QB battle in Philadelphia between Michael Vick
and Nick Foles now becomes even more intriguing. The Eagles have the second most attractive
PASS-SOS this season and in the high-octane Coach Chip Kelly offense the victor of the Philly
camp war becomes a very valuable fantasy draft option. When using the SOS table, common
sense is crucial in accurately reading the numbers. Carson Palmer is no longer in Oakland and
though the Raiders have the fourth best PASS-SOS, there is no QB on the roster that can
effectively take advantage of the juicy schedule. The same can be said of the Jets (6th best PASSSOS), who have QB and receiver issues. On the flip side, there are two passers who are very
likely to have breakout seasons; Kansas City’s Alex Smith and Miami’s Ryan Tannehill.
Tannehill is blessed with the seventh advantageous PASS-SOS and the Dolphin front office has
fortified the offense with WR talent, namely Mike Wallace. Smith is finally in a QB happy
program run by Coach Andy Reid, and in a place that truly wants and embraces his skill set.
Smith goes into the 2013 season with a PASS-SOS ranking of nine. Quarterbacks are not the
only benefactors of a prime-time PASS-SOS; wide receivers and tight ends also reap the
rewards. The Denver triple threat of Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker are all set
for fantasy friendly seasons. Dallas’ Dez Bryant is ready to go super star this season. Philly’s
Jeremy Maclin is a player that has fallen out of the spotlight but between the Coach Kelly
program and the #2 PASS-SOS Maclin is geared up for a surprisingly solid season. A receiver
in San Diego is going to emerge, and the early returns points to Danario Alexander. But keep an
eye on the sharp route running and sticky fingers of Vincent Brown; he’s got the tools and was
drafted with a prominent role in mind two seasons ago. Miami’s Mike Wallace could have a
bigger season than expected, PASS-SOS and surrounding talent considered. On the flip side,
Ravens Torry Smith is now the clear top target in Baltimore, but he no longer has Anquan
Boldin to draw coverage from Smith. Smith has done well against single-man coverage, but now
he will face many double-coverage looks. Another common sense read here involves the Lions
PASS-SOS and Calvin Johnson. Though Detroit carries the burden of the second toughest
PASS-SOS, Cal Johnson is SOS-proof and the ranking should mostly be ignored here. That is a
rare situation and few NFL players fall into that category. Things in New England are going to
be interesting. There has been so much of a shift in the WR ranks there, primarily the loss of
Wes Welker and the iffy health of TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernendez. The Super BandAid, Danny Amendola, slides into Welker’s slot and the outside receivers are names like Aaron
Dobson, Julian Edelman, Josh Boyce, Mike Jenkins, Donald Jones and Kenbrell Thompkins.
There may be a secret plan being conjured up by Wild Bill Belichick… eyes on, gang! The
Vikings, Rams and Bengals also have tough PASS-SOS slates, hot-seat QB situations and
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young, developing receiver units. There is no room for slip ups this season with a daunting SOS
ahead.
SOS-PASS, WEEKS 14-16 SORTED BY RANK (2013)
FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS
PASS
WAS
DET
STL
KC
CAR
CHI
BUF
SD
SF
DEN
NYJ
MIN
NE
OAK
BAL
GB
HOU
IND
JAC
SEA
ARI
MIA
NO
CLE
TEN
DAL
NYG
ATL
PIT
CIN
TB
PHI
14
29
23
11
25
31
27
30
32
3
26
24
19
17
5
8
21
20
10
9
2
15
1
12
28
6
4
18
7
16
22
13
14
15
21
19
31
24
5
17
20
6
30
18
12
23
16
29
14
27
22
9
13
32
26
28
15
4
11
7
3
25
10
1
2
8
16
27
32
30
22
31
23
16
24
21
9
17
10
19
18
28
1
6
29
26
11
3
13
12
5
20
25
14
2
7
8
15
4
SOS
77
74
72
71
67
67
66
62
54
53
53
52
52
52
50
49
48
48
48
45
44
42
39
37
37
36
35
34
33
31
30
26
This table is a perfect example why it is important to take a micro look at the SOS, dissecting the
regular season from the usual fantasy post-season schedule, commonly weeks 14 to 16. Lions’
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WR Calvin Johnson and QB Matt Stafford have a daunting regular season SOS, the second most
difficult weeks 1-13 slate in the league. Buuut, owning these two ever-dangerous offensive
weapons heading into the fanball playoffs projects to be a sky-high opportunity for fantasy
owners. The Lions go into weeks 14-16 with the second BEST PASS-SOS. Even more exciting
for the Detroit pass game players is that they square off against potentially the NFL’s worst air
defense in week 16, a title week in most leagues. The 16th week schedule sets the Lions opposite
the New York Giants, who were the league’s worst pass defense in our breakdown last season,
AND the game is in Detroit. Another nice observation that Masterminds will notice is that the
Redskins round out with the best playoff PASS-SOS. Washington QB Robert Griffin III is likely
to be as close to full strength from his knee surgery by then, and smart fantasy owners might
look to draft and stash RGIII later in the draft (where his ADP is falling), or, those practicing
SOS integrity might make a low-key investment deal after a few weeks if RGIII is on the shelf as
the season kicks off. St. Louis’ Sam Bradford, Chris Givens, Tavon Austin or whichever Rams’
receiver is ‘hot’ at the time should be on the watch list. Kansas City may experience a few
bumps in the road early transitioning to the Coach Reid/Alex Smith offense, but by week 14 the
kinks may be ironed out and the team functioning at a high level. The Rams, Chiefs, Panthers
and Bears all have great PASS-SOS during the all-important fantasy playoff run, weeks 14 to 16.
SOS-RUN, WEEKS 1-13 SORTED BY RANK (2013)
FANTASY FOOTBALL REGULAR SEASON
RUN
TB
SF
DEN
ARI
TEN
DAL
MIN
ATL
MIA
HOU
NO
STL
BUF
PHI
SEA
JAC
CHI
PIT
SD
NE
NYJ
1
23
21
12
17
3
27
26
30
15
5
29
22
8
14
18
28
9
16
10
32
1
2
30
25
27
26
10
28
13
17
31
16
1
29
18
5
4
24
6
9
11
23
8
3
8
31
24
30
5
17
15
7
29
12
22
19
23
28
20
25
3
13
16
1
32
4
22
17
11
1
23
5
3
8
30
25
7
4
12
2
10
31
26
6
19
29
16
5
Bye
10
19
18
28
2
Bye
23
12
4
13
20
15
27
31
17
30
Bye
24
9
29
6
11
22
20
4
25
14
18
Bye
Bye
17
8
10
9
1
16
2
27
23
31
30
3
7
29
16
31
25
4
11
27
TB
32
28
Bye
18
7
19
22
5
14
12
20
23
8
8
18
20
14
29
Bye
26
21
22
8
Bye
32
25
30
27
17
4
Bye
24
Bye
7
9
9
25
Bye
Bye
Bye
17
6
19
18
9
31
23
16
28
24
1
Bye
21
8
14
3
30
10
7
18
5
10
20
30
14
25
1
22
19
31
3
21
29
16
26
32
2
Bye
Bye
11
29
30
28
20
31
Bye
25
1
5
24
4
Bye
23
14
6
22
12
26
7
18
32
12
26
14
8
31
24
27
21
30
18
20
29
13
Bye
Bye
Bye
10
17
15
28
2
12
13
18
17
28
11
31
24
13
32
23
8
25
4
29
22
30
15
6
12
9
10
7
SOS
246
241
227
222
221
217
215
213
213
212
212
211
205
204
204
199
197
196
191
187
187
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NYG
OAK
CLE
KC
CIN
CAR
GB
WAS
IND
DET
BAL
19
31
7
20
13
25
4
11
24
6
2
2
20
12
19
3
32
14
21
7
22
15
18
2
6
11
21
27
9
26
4
14
10
28
14
9
27
15
Bye
Bye
24
20
13
32
11
5
32
16
8
22
26
Bye
25
21
7
13
28
26
24
32
6
12
19
5
15
21
6
Bye
21
10
26
17
15
13
2
9
1
11
3
28
15
23
1
6
2
Bye
19
Bye
Bye
11
12
32
7
29
13
5
10
Bye
15
24
27
Bye
Bye
12
4
11
6
17
13
9
21
10
9
2
15
8
27
11
16
3
13
19
16
3
5
Bye
7
6
4
22
1
23
14
19
20
2
5
1
26
27
16
21
3
186
186
185
183
180
179
169
169
168
157
151
Tampa Bay’s superb RB Doug Martin had an explosive debut in 2012. He also had the 5th best
RUN-SOS in the league last season. Washington’s Alfred Morris came out of small school
Florida Atlantic to bang out over 1600 rushing yards and double-digit TDs. Morris opened 2012
with the NFL’s 4th most attractive RUN-SOS. Frisco’s Frank Gore … 2nd best, KC’s Jamal
Charles… 7th and Adrian Peterson was 10th best RUN-SOS. Utilizing the SOS works or gets you
in the neighborhood of winning fantasy football production. Again, remember to apply common
sense as player health and your league scoring rules have to be considered with these SOS listtoppers. Last season I stated, “Washington’s talented and potential touch-machine Roy Helu
comes into 2012 with the 4th best SOS-RUN… but there’s the Shanny factor and his revolving RB
mind.” Right team and read, but there is ALWAYS the Shanny factor, and other smokescreens
to consider like RBBC (learn to love it!), offensive lines (which I rank in another article), type of
offensive scheme, etc. The Buc’s Martin flourished in 2012 with the 5th best RUN-SOS; he
comes into 2013 with the top regular season SOS in pro football. Gore again lucks out with the
2nd best SOS here, and runs behind the NFL’s beastliest o-line. The 2013 rookie coming into a
Doug Martin-Alfred Morris scenario is Denver’s Monte Ball, who is blessed with a most
advantageous 3rd RUN-SOS. If Cardinal’s Coach Arians can turn around his o-line in the desert,
Arizona’s Rashard Mendenhall has a juicy RUN-SOS, 4th best. In a rich-get-richer theme, RBs
Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson and Arian Foster all line up
in the top 10 RUN-SOS rankings. Another back that seems set up for 2013 prosperity is Miami’s
Lamar Miller, pegged as the RB1 for the Dolphins and doing his work through the 9th ranked
RUN-SOS. On the bottom-end, no one did Ray Rice, Reggie Bush or Vick Ballard any favors
with this season’s schedule as they make up the three toughest run slates. Alfred Morris’
sophomore year looks to be rocky with the 4th staunchest RUN-SOS. The Pack may be
introducing two rookies onto the FFB scene, but they will do so in a 5th toughest environment.
Some players are practically SOS proof. The ravens Ray Rice is never out of contention. If
Baltimore runs into the teeth of a fierce ground defense, Rice becomes a bigger PPR weapon; he
gets his one way or another. Jamal Charles also possesses Teflon for SOS, as well as Reggie
Bush to a lesser degree.
SOS-RUN, WEEKS 14-16 SORTED BY RANK (2013)
FANTASY FOOTBAL PLAYOFFS
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RUN
CAR
WAS
KC
ARI
JAC
NYJ
NYG
OAK
SF
HOU
NO
SD
SEA
STL
TB
GB
DET
DAL
IND
CHI
PHI
CLE
TEN
MIA
BAL
CIN
ATL
PIT
NE
MIN
DEN
BUF
14
30
28
14
17
10
24
5
23
25
20
18
27
4
22
32
29
11
13
9
19
26
8
2
3
6
31
21
7
15
12
16
1
15
23
29
24
16
32
18
25
28
1
31
17
2
27
30
4
19
12
21
10
15
6
13
22
8
26
3
14
9
7
11
5
20
16
30
19
31
25
16
15
26
5
29
2
18
24
22
1
17
3
27
14
28
11
13
23
20
32
8
6
4
21
12
9
10
7
SOS
83
76
69
58
58
57
56
56
55
53
53
53
53
53
53
51
50
48
47
45
45
44
44
43
40
40
39
37
34
32
31
28
Here’s hoping that Arizona’s coaching staff really performs miracles in the desert regarding the
run blocking; Rashard Mendenhall is set up for a monster finish and a solid season. Mendenhall
carries the 4th best regular season SOS and the playoff SOS in 2013. He should be fully
recovered by from his leg injuries of over a year ago, and ready to hit the ground running.
Mendy is a looker, and a mid-season trade target if all goes well. Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams
may be a nice late season sleeper grab. Running mate Jonathan Stewart is always injured
(already missing mini-camps) and Williams is set at the top of the RUN-SOS for the post season.
The Panthers are installing a more traditional run offense. Just sayin’. DC’s Alfred Morris may
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have a rough regular season slate, but he rockets to the 2nd best playoff schedule. Chiefs’ flashy
tailback Jamal Charles comes in at 3rd in the post season SOS and his PPR attractiveness is sure
to help win FFB titles. Flipping the chart, Buffalo’s CJ Spiller faces the 32nd ranked SOS in
weeks 14-16… new offense, rookie QB, an o-line that lost the best blocker via free agency; trade
bait. Bronco rookie Monte Ball may be a stud in the regular season, but he hits a wall in the FFB
playoffs. Adrian Peterson is one of those SOS-proof players. He has the 3rd toughest RUN-SOS
in the post season but that has to be ignored with AP. One thing to keep in mind when
considering the post season SOS is that a FFB owner coach can micro-manage the chart. It is
smart to hold an ace in the hand by checking out secondary running back talents who have
outstanding week 16 matchups. Miami’s Lamar Miller logs in with the 9th hardest playoff
schedule, but he laces ‘em up against potentially the weakest ground defense (in our Mastermind
way of ranking) in week 16, which is usually the FFB title game in a majority of leagues.
DeAngelo Williams tees off on the 30th ranked run D twice in three weeks… OUTSTANDING!
Either Ahmad Bradshaw or Vick Ballard are likely to be had in late season trades after tough
regular seasons, but go after the 28th projected run unit in the all-important 16th game of the
season. Of course defenses change as well as their performances, but this is a great baseline
study to start out with. Those owners who do plan ahead might scan the SOS-RUN and stash
away potential stars-in-waiting who could make hay when it counts. A few seasons ago I won a
fantasy championship with Pierre Thomas and then part-timer Jamaal Charles as my title game
starting backfield. Often, it’s not how much a player does, it’s when he does it.
Much goes into planning a fantasy draft and a successful season. Luck plays a role, but most
times those who are “lucky” put themselves in the position to be just that. Working a smart,
well-processed SOS before the draft isn’t going to guarantee a trophy on your mantle come
season’s end. However, all plans that prosper need a firm, logical foundation and starting point.
A fantasy-specific Strength Of Schedule truly focuses on football players that have the best
chance to prosper, and do so at the right times when you need them to perform. A SOS can not
only establish a fine-tuned draft plan, but guide in making weekly lineup and roster decisions,
and pinpoint specific trade targets and the optimum time to pull off those key championship
building moves. The beauty of the SOS is that it can evolve and change weekly to reflect how
defenses are progressing or falling apart. But it all happens right now, in the off-season and the
preparation.
Fantasy coaches, it is time to begin to Mastermind your 2013 season. The Fantasy Strength Of
Schedule is your cornerstone to a great season.
~ end ~
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Coaching Carousel 2013
June 28, 2013
by: John Holler
Fantasy owners are always in tune with the movement of players from one team to
another and the impact that can have on the franchise in question. For example, how does the
move of Wes Welker from New England to Denver impact both teams? Who is going to pick up
the slack in New England? Will Eric Decker be the one hurt the most by the arrival of Welker or
could both Decker and Demaryius Thomas see a loss of production with the addition of the most
consistent 100-catch receiver in NFL history? How will the Rams and Falcons each be impacted
by the move of Steven Jackson from St. Louis to Atlanta.
While these changes are that are the most obvious to fans, what isn’t always noticed are
the changes that are made on NFL coaching staffs. Whether it’s a complete staff that is let go or
coaches that leave on their own for other jobs or serve as scapegoats for the failures of a team
(we’re looking at you, Rex Ryan), the changes that get made can have just as big an impact as
signing a high-priced free agent or a veteran backup quarterback who still has starting
aspirations.
More than 75 percent of the NFL teams had some sort of coaching turnover. These are
the coaches that have come into new organizations and the differences they might make to the
fantasy prospects of the NFL’s 32 teams in 2013.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills – After being a trendy pick to be a challenge to the Patriots last year, Chan Gailey
and his staff was imploded and the Bills are starting over. The team brought in head coach Doug
Marrone, who spent the last four years at head coach of Syracuse, but does have NFL
experience, including offensive coordinator of the Saints from 2006-08 and offensive line coach
for Jets from 2002-05. Marrone spread the wealth from his Syracuse staff, bringing in Nathaniel
Hackett (offensive coordinator/quarterbacks), Tyrone Wheatley (running backs), Greg Adkins
(tight ends) and Donnie Henderson (defensive backs). Not everyone came in from the Syracuse
program. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine comes to Buffalo after being the DC for the last
four years with the Jets. Pettine brought along Anthony Weaver from the fired Jets defensive
staff to serve as D-line coach for the Bills and linebackers coach Jim O’Neill, who spent the last
three years as defensive backs coach with the Jets. Special teams coordinator Danny Crossman
has been a special teams coordinator for eight years – five with Carolina and the last three with
Detroit. Offensive line coach Pat Morris is entering his 16th season, which has included stints in
San Francisco, Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. Wide receivers coach Ike Hilliard spent 2012
in that position with Washington. The Bills are bringing together a lot of new coaches from
different programs, each with some familiarity with others on the staff. How quickly they can
blend into a cohesive staff will go a long way to determining how quickly the Bills can return to
respectability.
Miami Dolphins – Technically the Dolphins don’t have any changes in the second season with
Joe Philbin as the head coach. The only change was an internal promotion. When he took the
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job, Philbin and offensive coordinator served as the de facto quarterbacks coach. Zac Taylor,
who was brought in as the assistant QBs coach when Philbin assembled his staff in 2012, was
promoted to the position of quarterbacks coach. Other than that, the staff remains intact heading
into the second year of the Philbin era.
New England Patriots – Perhaps it’s a sign of the times. Bill Belichick hasn’t had a defensive
coordinator the last two years, handling the job himself. That will change this year. He promoted
safeties coach Matt Patricia to the role of defensive coordinator. There was defensive coaching
juggling done beyond naming a DC. Josh Boyer went from being defensive backs coach to just
cornerbacks, defensive assistant Brian Flores was promoted to safeties coach, Pepper Johnson
was moved from defensive line coach to linebackers coach and Patrick Graham was shifted from
LBs to the D-line. One interesting signing was the hiring of Steve Belichick (the coach’s son) as
a coaching assistant. While the Patriots defense struggled last year, Belichick has a history of
moving coaches around within the system to give them a fuller knowledge base of the different
responsibilities within a team. Belichick taking the DC position away from himself is an example
of that.
New York Jets – Rex Ryan survived the coaching blood purge on both sides of the ball, but the
same couldn’t be said for his support staff – including all three coordinators. After spending the
last 10 years in Philadelphia with Andy Reid, Marty Mornhinweg was hired as the next offensive
coordinator. On the offensive side, the team brought in tight ends coach Steve Hagen, who held
the same position the last four years in Cleveland. Quarterback coach David Lee has been a
quarterbacks coach for both Miami and Buffalo, making his third stop in the AFC East. Mike
Delvin was relieved of his duties as TE coach and was named the new offensive line coach. On
the defensive side, Dennis Thurman was promoted to defensive coordinator from the team’s
defensive backs coach. Thurman was replaced as the defensive backs coach by former NFL
safety Tim McDonald, marking his first NFL or college coaching job. The biggest defensive
signing was bringing in former Falcons defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder to coach
linebackers. Even special teams weren’t unscathed by the changes, as Ben Kotwica was
promoted to special teams coordinator after the firing of Mike Westhoff. Somehow Ryan and his
tough talking ways helped him avoid the hammer of firings, but the Jets cleaned house of
assistants. Another bad season for Ryan and he may join his fellow coaches on the temporary
unemployment line.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens – When you’re a champion, you inevitably lose coaches. Fortunately for the
Ravens, they weren’t caught by surprise. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was cut loose late
in the season, quarterbacks coach Jim Caldwell took over and returns as the full-time OC.
Former Philadelphia assistant Juan Castillo was the only new outside hire, being brought in as
run-game coordinator after Andy Reid’s Eagles staff was imploded.
Cincinnati Bengals – Thanks in no small part to making the playoffs in back-to-back seasons,
there are no position coaching changes this offseason.
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Cleveland Browns – The Browns cleaned house throughout the coaching staff, starting at the
top. Rod Chudzinski comes to Cleveland after nine years in the NFL, the last two as offensive
coordinator. The changes on the offensive side of ball include offensive coordinator Norv
Turner, who was the embattled head coach in San Diego before being fired at the end of the
season. Chudzinski and Turner will handle the role of being quarterbacks coach. Turner’s
support staff will include running backs coach John Settle, wide receivers coach Scott Turner,
both of whom spent the last two years with Chudzinski in Carolina, and Jon Embree, a 20-year
coaching veteran who spent the last two as the head coach at the University of Colorado. The
only offensive position coach who survived the purge was offensive line coach George Warhop.
On the defensive side of the ball, 19-year coaching veteran Ray Horton was named defensive
coordinator, after spending the last two years in the same capacity in Arizona. He will be joined
by defensive line coach Joe Cullen, who spent the last three years as the D-line coach in
Jacksonville, outside linebackers coach Brian Baker, who has 19 seasons of NFL coaches with
the last two as D-line coach of the Dallas Cowboys, inside linebackers coach Ken Flajole, who
has 36 years of coaching experience, most recently with New Orleans Saints, and defensive
backs coach Louie Cioffi, an 18-year veteran who spent the last two seasons in the same position
with Arizona. There are changes-a-plenty in Cleveland, but this isn’t the first rodeo for the
coaching staff.
Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers only had one change on the coaching staff. O-line coach
Sean Kugler left to become the head coach at UTEP. He was replaced by Jack Bicknell Jr., a
coach with extensive O-line experience – most recently at Kansas City. The Steelers have a long
history of loyalty to its coaching staff and that hasn’t changed – whether the Steelers have been a
playoff team or not.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans – The Texans have dominated the AFC South the last two years and, not
surprisingly, had no changes to the coaching staff.
Indianapolis Colts – The Colts lost offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who served as head
coach while Chuck Pagano was going through chemotherapy, as the new head coach of the
Cardinals. The only new members of the Colts coaching staff are two coordinators. Pep
Hamilton, who spent the last three years with Stanford – the final two as offensive coordinator
and QB coach (where he coached Andrew Luck) – as the new offensive coordinator. The move
should make the transition seamless given the familiarity between Luck and Hamilton. The other
change was at special teams coordinator, where Tom McMahon comes over from Kansas City.
The Colts made huge strides last year and, despite a couple of key changes, shouldn’t miss a
beat.
Jacksonville Jaguars – It would seem the head coach of the Jaguars is always on the hot seat.
While Jack Del Rio had more lives than Rasputin. Mike Mullarkey wasn’t so fortunate, as he and
his staff were sent packing. The team looked defensively for a new head coach, hiring Seattle
defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to try to work the same magic in Jacksonville. Offensive
coordinator Jedd Fisch comes to the Jaguars after spending the last two years as offensive
coordinator at the University of Miami. His support staff includes running backs coach Terry
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Richardson, who worked with Fisch at The U, QB coach Frank Scelfo, who spent 2010-11 as the
QB coach at the University of Arizona, tight ends coach Ron Middleton, who spent the last five
years as the combination tight ends coach and special teams coordinator at Duke, and offensive
line coach George Yarno, who spent the last four seasons with Detroit. One the defensive side,
the Jags hired veteran coach Bob Babich as their defensive coordinator. He spent the last nine
years on Lovie Smith’s coaching staff in Chicago – the first six as linebackers coach and the last
three as DC. He is joined by defensive line coach Todd Wash, who spent the last two years with
Bradley in Seattle, and defensive backs coach DeWayne Walker, who spent the last four years as
the head coach at New Mexico State. The Jaguars hit bottom last year and are looking to rise
from the ashes with a new coaching staff and a new outlook. Whether this groups succeeds or
not, it’s been a long time since the Jags were legitimate Super Bowl contenders and Bradley is
being asked to reverse that too-long-standing trend.
Tennessee Titans – After just one season as head coach, Mike Munchak shook up almost his
entire offensive coaching staff. In as offensive coordinator is Dowell Loggains, who was
promoted from QB coach to OC after Thanksgiving late last season. Wide receivers coach Dave
Ragone took Loggains’ job as quarterbacks coach. There are new coaches coming into the staff.
Running backs coach Sylvester Croom, is in his 22nd year as a coach, spending his last three
seasons with the St. Louis Rams (2009-11), Sean Jefferson is the new wide receivers coach after
spending the last five years at that position with Detroit. But the biggest addition to the coaching
staff is on the defensive side of the ball. Munchak brought back disgraced Saints defensive
coordinator Gregg Williams, proving that acumen and a track record can negate a year-long
suspension for his role as the ringmaster of Bountygate. While his title is senior assistant, expect
to see Williams’ fingerprints all over the Titans defense.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos – After losing offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, some changes needed to be
made. Adam Gase was promoted from QB coach to offensive coordinator and Greg Knapp as
quarterbacks coach. Knapp has been a QB coach or an offensive coordinator each of the last 15
seasons, who spent last season as the offensive coordinator of the division rival Raiders. When
you’re successful, you lose coaches, but the Broncos did a nice job to maintain experience and
continuity on the offensive coaching staff.
Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs made one of the biggest splashes in hiring deposed Eagles
despot Andy Reid. Reid will be given a lot of authority within the organization and clearly is
calling the shots on assembling his coaching staff. On the offensive side, he added Doug
Pederson as offensive coordinator. Pederson came along with Reid, where he spent the last two
seasons as QB coach in 2011-12 in Philly. So did QB coach Matt Nagy, who spent the last two
seasons as offensive quality control coach with the Eagles. So did assistant head coach/wide
receiver, who spent 14 years with Reid in Philadelphia. The last time they weren’t together, it
was late in the 20th century (1998 to be exact). The same is true for tight ends coach Tom
Melvin, who spent 14 years with Reid, the last 11 years as TE coach. Running backs coach Eric
Bienemy spent the last two seasons as offensive coordinator at the University of Colorado, but is
best known for being the screaming voice in the ear of Adrian Peterson – who responded pretty
well to his tutelage. Offensive line coach Andy Heck, spent the last seven seasons as
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Jacksonville’s O-line coach. Defensive coordinator Bob Sutton has 13 years of NFL coaching
experience – all with the New York Jets. Defensive line coach Tommy Brasher is entering his
25th year as an NFL coach, including three tours of duty with the Eagles – the last two with Reid.
Reid opted to retain linebackers coach Gary Gibbs and defensive backs coach Emmitt Thomas
because of their experience – both in the NFL and with the young Chiefs defense. Like so many
of Reid’s other hires, he has a penchant to hire coaches with long-term experience with a single
franchise and has shown the ability to be in it for the long haul.
Oakland Raiders – The Raiders didn’t panic and make a ton of changes with head coach Dennis
Allen, but they made some significant changes to the coaching staff. Greg Olson was brought in
as the team’s new offensive coordinator. He spent last season as assistant head
coach/quarterbacks with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Former Miami head coach Tony Sparano was
added as assistant head coach/offensive line and veteran special teams coordinator Bobby April,
who has 22 years of NFL coaching experience, including the last three in Philadelphia. The
Raiders didn’t make a lot of changes, but the ones they made will bring a lot of experience to the
coaching staff and give the team some veteran coaching stability.
San Diego Chargers – Despite making a head coaching change, there wasn’t a complete
turnover on the Chargers staff in the post-Norv Turner era. Mike McCoy was hired away from
division rival Denver, where he was the offensive coordinator. Almost all of the changes made
were on the offensive side of the ball, while the defensive staff remained largely intact. Former
Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt was hired as the offensive coordinator and he will be
supported by several new coaches, including QB coach Frank Reich, who came with Whisenhunt
from Arizona, wide receivers coach Fred Graves, a 36-year coaching veteran who spent the last
two seasons with Carolina and offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris, another 36-year coaching
veteran who spent the last three years in Buffalo. The only change on the defensive side of the
ball came in the secondary, where Ron Milus takes over. Milus was a coach with Murphy in
Denver the last two seasons. The Chargers are looking for a clean start, but the fact the defensive
coaching staff has remained largely the same is a sign that they believe they’re not in complete
reclamation mode.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys – Jason Garrett has been put on notice, but most of his staff remained intact
after a disappointing 2012, but there were some significant changes. On the offensive side of the
ball, Gary Brown was hired as the new running backs coach, a position he held the last five years
with Cleveland, and the new wide receivers coach is Derek Dooley. Dooley and Garrett were
both on the Miami staff together and most recently, he was the head coach at Tennessee. The
biggest changes came on the defensive side of the ball, where the Cowboys went (really) old
school. Rob Ryan was sent packing and was replaced by Monte Kiffin, who was the guru of the
Indianapolis and Tampa Bay defenses before moving on to USC to coach with his son, Lane.
The Cowboys also added former Detroit head coach Rod Marinelli to coach the defensive line.
After being fired by the Lions, Marinelli spent last season with Chicago Bears as their defensive
coordinator, but was again sent packing when Lovie Smith’s staff was dismantled. It’s a
playoffs-or-bust season for Garrett, but the Cowboys have brought in some experienced
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defensive coaches in hopes of bringing old-school success back to a team known for its oldschool success.
New York Giants – When you’ve won a pair of Super Bowl titles over the last five years, you
keep the band together. The G-men have no changes in their coaching roster from 2012.
Philadelphia Eagles – The Andy Reid era ended and with it came massive changes. It started
with head coach Chip Kelly, an offensive innovator who was the head coach at the University of
Oregon. Changes on the offense begin with offensive coordinator Pat Shurmer, who spent 10
years with the Eagles as TE and QB coach and the last two seasons as head coach in Cleveland.
Kelly tapped the college ranks to get Bill Lazor as his quarterbacks coach after spending the last
three years as the offensive coordinator at QB coach at the University of Virginia and offensive
line coach Jeff Stoutland, who held the same position the last two years at the University of
Alabama. Former Eagle Duce Staley was retained and promoted from quality control coach to
running backs coach. Wide receivers coach Bob Bicknell spent the last three years with the Bills
coaching WRs and tight ends. On the defensive side of the ball, defensive coordinator Bill Davis
brings 21 years of experience – most recently at Cleveland coaching linebackers. Assistant head
coach/defensive line coach Jerry Azzinaro came with Kelly after spending the last four years in
the same position at Oregon. Outside linebackers coach Bill McGovern comes from the college
game as well, after spending the last 12 years as linebackers coach at Boston College. Inside
linebackers coach Rick Minter spent the last two seasons as defensive coordinator at Kentucky
University. Defensive backs coach John Lovett has 35 years of coaching experience, most
recently as d-backs coach at Texas Tech. New special teams coordinator Dave Fipp spent the last
two teams in the same position with Miami, where the Dolphins had one of the most effective
special teams units in the league. The Eagles are moving in a new direction for the first time
since the turn of the century and it will be interesting to see how the new staff works together
because they come from widely varied backgrounds but definitely will infuse enthusiasm in an
Eagles team in transition.
Washington Redskins – Coming off a playoff season, the Redskins only made a couple of
minor tweaks to the coaching staff. Offensive assistant Mike McDaniel was promoted to wide
receivers coach and the only outside hire was Keith Burns as special teams coordinator. Burns
spent the last six years in Denver as the special teams coach, the first two with Mike Shanahan
when he was still the head coach. With success comes continuity in coaching and Shanahan
didn’t need to make changes because there wasn’t anything wrong.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears – Lovie Smith was one of the longest-tenured coaches in the NFL before he got
fired at the end of the season. Marc Trestman comes in after a stint in the CFL with the Montreal
Alouettes and has assembled an interesting collection of assistant coaches. New offensive
coordinator Aaron Kromer spent the last five seasons in New Orleans coaching the offensive
line/running game. He will serve as both offensive coordinator and O-line coach. Quarterback
coach Matt Cavanaugh is in his second tour of duty with the Bears, having served as offensive
coordinator in 1998-99. He spent the last four years as QB coach with the Jets. Running backs
coach Skip Peete has 15 years of NFL experience as a RB coach – the last six with Dallas.
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Trestman dipped into the college ranks to get wide receivers coach Mike Groh, who spent the
last two season with the University of Alabama. Trestman brought tight ends coach Andy
Bischoff with him from the CFL to continue their working relationship. On the defensive side of
the ball, Trestman brought in new defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, who spent the last four
years as the Jacksonville DC. Linebackers coach Tim Tibesar spent 2012 at Purdue as its
defensive coordinator after being Trestman’s linebackers coach in 2009-10 and defensive
coordinator in 2011. In a final move, Trestman hired special teams guru Joe DeCamillis as the
team’s special teams coordinator/assistant head coach. He has 25 years experience, the last four
with Dallas. The Bears had a longstanding coaching staff that started with Smith and, while there
were changes over the years, remained largely the same from one year to the next. The Bears are
going to have a ton of changes this year and it will be critical that everyone gets on the same
page or there could be a repeat locker room implosion like their was last year when things fell
apart.
Detroit Lions – Despite a complete collapse coming off a playoff run the year before, Jim
Schwartz didn’t make many changes to his staff. But most of the changes came on offense. Tim
Lappano moved from tight ends coach to wide receivers coach and was replaced by Bobby
Johnson, who spent last year as the TE coach in Jacksonville. New running backs coach/run
game coordinator Curtis Modkins spent the last three years as offensive coordinator in Buffalo
and the team promoted Jeremiah Washburn to the position of offensive line coach after being an
assistant there for four years. The defensive coaching staff remains the same, but one significant
change came with the hiring of new special teams coach John Bonamego. He is a 26-year
coaching veteran, most recently coaching special teams in Jacksonville. Schwartz shuffled the
deck on offense and special teams, which is often a sign that he has one year to get the ship right
or changes will be made.
Green Bay Packers – The Packers are the class of the division and the only question was
whether another team was going to pilfer their coaches, which has happened often in the past.
Nobody did, so the staff remains the same from last year.
Minnesota Vikings – In his second full season as head coach, Leslie Frazier pulled off one of
the biggest turnarounds in franchise history, going from 3-13 to 10-6 and the playoffs. As a
result, there were no changes to the coaching staff.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons – The Falcons had the best record in the NFC and are returning in 2013 with
the entire coaching staff remaining the same.
Carolina Panthers – Ron Rivera has been a source of controversy for years – often being
interviewed, but never getting a head coaching job. He was on the bubble last year and with
General Manager Marty Hurney fired in the offseason, he is officially on notice to produce or
follow Hurney out the door. Rivera made several staff changes, including the promotion of Mike
Shula from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator and the hiring of QB coach Ken Dorsey
– his first NFL coaching position. The team brought back Jim Skipper as running backs coach
after two years in Tennessee. He returns to the job he held from 2002-10 with the Panthers.
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Ricky Proehl was promoted from offensive consultant to wide receivers coach and Richard
Rodgers was promoted to special teams coach after being the assistant the last two seasons. The
only difference on the defensive side of the ball is linebackers coach Al Holcomb, who spent the
last four years with the New York Giants. Rivera is on a short leash and, given the strength of
the other teams in the NFC South, it could all blow up fast in Carolina if things don’t take an
upward turn this season.
New Orleans Saints – The biggest change here is that Sean Payton is back after a one-year
suspension, but coming in a close second is the hiring of Rob Ryan, former of the Cowboys, as
the new defensive coordinator. The only other significant change was the move of Bret Ingalls
from running backs to the offensive and the hiring of Dan Roushar, who spent the last six
seasons at Michigan State – the final two as offensive coordinator. The other coaching change
came in the secondary, where they hired 23-year college veteran coach Wesley McGriff, who
spent last season as the defensive coordinator at Ole Miss. The Saints coaching staff will have a
different look with Payton back, which might be one of the bigger coaching changes of 2013.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Before Greg Schiano arrived, the word was out was a no-nonsense
guy who could rub some players and coaches the wrong way. One year into his new job with the
Bucs and significant changes of Shiano’s staff have taken place already. On the offensive side of
the ball, there were some changes, including quarterbacks coach John McNulty, who had spent
four seasons as the wide receivers coach with the Cardinals, but coached under Schiano at
Rutgers from 2004-08. Wide receivers coach John Garrett, spent the last five seasons with Dallas
as its tight ends coach and, for the last two seasons, as passing game coordinator. One the
defensive side of the ball, Schiano brought in linebackers coach Robb Smith, who was the
defensive coordinator in Rutgers with Schiano. He also brought in cornerbacks coach Tony
Oden, who comes over from Jacksonville in the same capacity. There weren’t a lot of changes,
but it appears as though Schiano is surrounding himself with coaches he’s more familiar with.
Whether that’s a good move for the Bucs or not will be seen, perhaps sooner than later.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals did a complete makeover of their coaching staff, running
out everyone who was part of the old regime and starting over at a time when the other three
teams in the division are on the rise. Bruce Arians comes in after taking over as head coach of
Indianapolis last year and leading the Colts to the playoffs. One of his first hires was to bring in
longtime offensive coordinator Tom Moore as the assistant head coach in charge of offense.
What his role will be has yet to be determined, but Arians has full faith in Moore and he could
end up being given a lot of authority. On the offensive staff, Arians assembled an eclectic group,
led by offensive coordinator Harold Goodwin, who was offensive line coach under Arians with
the Colts last year and will also assume that role with the Cardinals. Freddie Kitchens moves
from tight ends coach to QB coach and was replaced at TE coach by Rick Christophel, who
spent the last six years as head coach at Austin Peay. Former Cardinals running back Stump
Mitchell comes back to the organization as RB coach 22 years later – after a long coaches career
that included high school, college and the NFL. For the last three years, he was head coach at
Southern University. Wide receivers coach Darryl Drake held the same position under Lovie
Smith with the Chicago Bears over the last nine seasons. Defensively, Arians hired Todd
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Bowles, who was a defensive backs coach with the Jets, Browns, Cowboys and Dolphins, before
being appointed defensive coordinator of the Eagles at midseason of his first year in
Philadelphia. Arians is giving defensive line coach Brentson Buckner his first pro job. Buckner
was a 12-year NFL veteran who was an intern coach with the Steelers the last three seasons
during training camp. Outside linebackers coach Mike Caldwell is another former Cardinals
player who takes over after coaching linebackers the last two seasons in Philadelphia. Outside
linebackers coach James Bettcher follows Arians over as a special assistant to the head coach
(which turned out to be Arians). Prior to that, he was both linebackers coach and special teams
coordinator at the University of New Hampshire, so he has an eclectic background. Small eastern
colleges got more representation with defensive backs coach Nick Rapone, who has 30 years of
college coaching experience – the last seven as defensive coordinator at the University of
Delaware. Cornerbacks coach Kevin Ross, who spent 2010-11 in the same position with the
Oakland Raiders, but was a player at Temple when Arians was head coach. They have shifted
from Temple to Tempe 30 years later. The final coaching change was at special teams
coordinator, where Amos Jones comes over after six years in Pittsburgh – the final season as
special teams coach. With so many changes, Arians is going to have a tall order in front of him,
but, given what he did with the Colts last year under adverse circumstances, he has earned the
shot at being a head coach in the NFL and a lot of people in the league are hoping he succeeds.
St. Louis Rams – After his first season in St. Louis, there were only two changes made to Jeff
Fisher’s coaching staff. In his first season with the Rams, Fisher didn’t have a defensive
coordinator after the man he hired (Gregg Williams) was suspended by the NFL indefinitely. He
rectified that in the offseason by hiring Tim Walton, who spent the last four years as defensive
backs coach with Dallas, as the new defensive coordinator. In addition, the time hired Frank
Bush as its linebackers coach. Bush has been an NFL LB coach for the last 25 years, with his last
stop being at Tennessee, where he was retained after Fisher got fired and has been reunited in St.
Louis.
San Francisco 49ers – With a trip the Super Bowl, the biggest concern for a coaching change
was whether or not someone would try to tap into the success and raid their coaches. That didn’t
happen, so the band is staying together in San Francisco.
Seattle Seahawks – The only changes were on the defensive front, where defensive coordinator
Gus Bradley got the head coaching job in Jacksonville and took defensive line coach Todd Wash
with him. Dan Quinn returns to Seattle as the defensive coordinator after being retained when
head coach Pete Carroll took over and kept him as defensive line coach. He spent the last two
years at the University of Florida as defensive coordinator, but came back to Seattle when
Bradley’s job came open. Replacing Wash is Travis Jones, who was a D-line coach for the Saints
the last five years. If Seattle has the kind of year so many expect they will, it could be hard to
keep this group together because Bradley may not be the last of Carroll’s assistants to be offered
a head coaching job.
~ end ~
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Movers & Shakers
Adjusting Draft Strategy & Taking Advantage of Scoring Rules
June 28, 2013
By Chris Rito
To any of you reading this article, it comes as no surprise that you should adjust your
rankings and cheat sheets based on the type of scoring system in which you play. For example,
every site worth a hoot will publish separate cheat sheets for both PPR and non-PPR leagues, so
there clearly is a difference in how players are ranked within their positional list. That’s the easy
thing to do, and a necessary first step when one is preparing to play in any league. But that is not
all there is to it. An often overlooked facet of drafting in any league is the way it should impact
your overall draft strategy. Too many fantasy owners modify their cheat sheets with great care,
precision and thought… and then follow the same old plan they would use for any other league,
often blindly take RBs with the first two selections. It’s imperative that you look at your overall
rankings (i.e., across all positions) and see where your projections lead you; many players only
look at their overall rankings about 20 players deep and then go position-by-position, based on
their own team’s need as the draft progresses. But if you look at your overall rankings, you can
start to see how your draft strategy should be adjusted right from the start in round 1 to best take
advantage of the draft.
For the purposes of this discussion, I will assume that the “standard” lineup and scoring
system is a 10-to-12 team, non-PPR league in which you select your weekly starting lineup, and
that the lineup is QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-K-D. This is the basis from which I will start and
to which I will make my comparisons, understanding that your league is probably different.
Actually… the fact that your league is different is exactly the point of this article! I start here
because this lineup is (as I see it) the most common lineup orientation for much of the last 10
years or so and one which is at least familiar to most FFLers. Starting with that definition and the
usual drafting strategies that are used, I will share my personal drafting philosophies and how
they differ depending on the rules of the league. Also implicit in this discussion is the fact that
you must be cognizant of the tiers and overall relative values of the positions and the players;
blindly following this advice when there are far more valuable players on the board would be as
unwise as blindly following the “Stud RB Theory” regardless of your league rules! I will not
cover IDP leagues (that topic will be covered by other expert writers in the premium guide) but
those styles of leagues also will throw a kink into your drafting strategy, and will vary widely
depending on the IDP scoring system involved.
PPR leagues
As this is the most common variation from the “standard” lineup and scoring options – and, in
fact, may currently even be more common – we will start here. The concept of awarding 1 point
for every pass reception does skew individual rankings, but I will not focus on that here; we all
know that guys like Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice were ranked even higher in the
last few years in these scoring systems due to the fact that they could pick up 60-70 points on
other RBs with similar “total yards” production. The real key here is how does this impact your
draft strategy?
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Let me give you some data, just as a place to start the discussion. I took these point
values right from the initial 2013 FFMastermind.com premium player rankings straight from the
Mastermind Championship Projection (MCP) board. I looked at similar numbers from numerous
other sources, and they are all fundamentally in agreement with this trend although the specific
numbers obviously differ. Here’s the thing - it doesn’t even matter if the individual players’
predicted fantasy numbers are correct in this case, since the overall trend is all that is important
to this argument:
Non-PPR league:
(predicted)
2013 points
>100 points
>125 points
>150 points
>200 points
>250 points
# RB
37
29
23
12
4
# WR
51
35
22
5
0
# TE
10
5
1
0
0
# WR
51
32
23
4
1
# TE
12
4
2
0
0
PPR league:
(predicted)
2013 points
>150 points
>200 points
>225 points
>300 points
>350 points
# RB
29
20
15
4
0
The first thing you likely noticed is that the scoring scale is MUCH higher for the PPR
league. As such, I had to somewhat arbitrarily define roughly equivalent levels to compare each
league (This breakdown kept the tiers at WR and TE fairly constant, so I used these levels). The
second thing you likely noticed is that the skewing in the points scored far more significantly
impacts the WR and TE positions than it did the RBs. This should be intuitively obvious since
99% of WR and TE scoring is done via catching passes, but to see the numbers laid out this way
is sometimes surprising.
The one thing you cannot see from this chart (since I did not include it) is that relative
QB scoring is unaffected. Since QB scoring is often so much higher than at other positions, the
higher totals make the tiers (as defined) useless for QBs. Also, they obviously do not catch
passes unless something has gone horribly wrong, so there would be no difference between the
two QB columns in each chart. Since everyone else’s scores go up and QB scoring stays the
same, I won’t spend any more words defending this statement: “QBs are devalued in PPR
leagues as compared to non-PPR leagues.”
Let’s break the rest of these data down further. Looking at the numbers for a non-PPR
league, you can see a major reason why the “Stud RB Theory” is so prevalent in most leagues.
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RBs are very dominant at the top of the scoring chain, and at the highest end they are the sole
residents of the draft board (often they dominate the first 8-10 picks of a draft). But when you
look at a PPR league, now the high-end WRs are actually competitive with the top-rated RBs in
overall scoring; Megatron is the outlier here as it is rare that that any projection has a WR
exceeding the top RB point totals, even in a PPR! The key is always to maximize your value, but
we can assume that the top dogs at either position will show a significant advantage over the
“average” player at that same position, and thus is equal for both the RB and the WR. So what
does this mean? This means that the “Stud RB Theory” starts to break down a little bit when
PPR is involved. When drafting in the early second round, grabbing a WR from the high-rent
district is certainly going to serve you better than taking the RB#15 if usual draft trends hold; in
fact, taking Brandon Marshall in the second half of round one is a wise choice, and drafting
Calvin Johnson as high as #3-4 overall of round one in a PPR league can easily be justified!
Bucking the RB-only trend continues if you look at these numbers some more. In a 10-12
team non-PPR league, you are probably hoping to get your RB#3 in round 4-5 (the tier listed as
>150 points) while those same point predictions put you into the range of an upper-end WR#3.
But if you look at a PPR league, similar overall scoring tiers (>200 points) have you comparing a
strong RB#2 with the tail end of the WR#3 tier. You can see that the WR is simply becoming
more valuable in the first 4-5 rounds of the draft.
As you approach the middle rounds in a PPR league, however, the numbers start to even
out and the mid-range WRs are severely devalued as the backup RBs start to close ground. This
is partly due to the fact that the point totals for weaker WRs show little differentiation since
everyone is scoring something with receptions. This is also due to the fact that there are a lot of
3rd down backs or good receiving RBs that have serious value as flex or bench players in PPR
leagues, but that have minimal value in non-PPR leagues; guys like Danny Woodhead and
perhaps eventually Ronnie Hillman come to mind here.
One thing I have yet to mention is the TE position. While it is known that there is a
premium on a top TE in any TE-required league, these numbers seem to indicate that a PPR
league actually increases the value of the top TEs on the board. Recent trends in the NFL and the
explosive breakouts of Gronk and Graham only make this trend at the top of the charts even
more striking. Looking at the chart for the level at which the top handful of TEs appear, you will
notice that they are on a par with the top 24 RBs in a non-PPR and actually with the first round
RBs in a PPR! So….that RB#24 (which usually goes off the board by the middle of the third
round in non-PPR leagues) has a handful of TEs that will afford similar scoring or higher. Those
numbers are astounding, and this shows that the value of the top two TEs in the now have
draftable value as high as the first round in a PPR league because they all catch so many passes!
I would have never thought this was possible when I started playing FFL, even when Tony
Gonzalez was tearing up the rankings at TE a decade ago. And we saw Graham and Gronkowski
each merit first round selections last year, and likely Graham will sprinkle the first line on more
than few draft boards in 2013 again.
It really is possible to come out ahead by taking WRs high in a PPR league rather than
strictly adhering to a more familiar draft strategy. What you lose in “weakening” your RB#1 will
be more than offset by gains in your stud WRs and your TE as you take the best players on the
board at several crucial pass-catching positions. You can also see that waiting for a QB is a
workable plan in most leagues (if you miss out on Rodgers, Brady, Brees etc.), and an even
better idea in a PPR league which devalues QBs.
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No TE Leagues
It is still somewhat common to see leagues in which the TE is considered to be the same
as any other receiver. While there are a great many more TEs collecting 70+ catches each year, it
is still only the top end of the TE rankings that can make a difference in this sort of scoring
format. Obviously, the key here is to insert your TEs into your WR rankings based on their
actual projected statistics for 2013. However, the one thing to remember is that true draft value
comes NOT from taking a player where his stats indicate, but in taking him as low as possible to
maximize his “value over draft position” For example, the MCP rates top TEs Jimmy Graham as
being the #15-17 player at his position when combined with WRs, thus making him a solid
WR#2. This would place their draft value in this scoring format solidly in the early round 3
range, in either a PPR or non-PPR system. And the reality is that this is about where the big
name TEs will go in either sort of draft, probably higher in PPRs.
The real value comes in those next tiers of TEs, the guys like Tony Gonzalez and Jason
Witten, who are projected around the #23-25 ranking in PPRs and would therefore be WR#3s.
My experience has been that people forget about the TEs a little bit once you get past the big
names at the top of the TE-only list, and one can often get them a round or two later than they
should go! As an extreme example, I have been able to get Tony Gonzalez as my WR#4 several
times over recent years in one league even though he was putting up WR#2 (or even #1)
numbers. Obviously, you can also get guys that would be TE#1 (in a league which required a
TE) as your WR#5 or #6 and come out way ahead on the scoring with lesser risk. Ask yourself
this…who would you rather draft this year: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis or Eric Decker?
Realistically, in a league in which the TE is not required, Decker will go many rounds before
either TE will... but I would be willing to bet that all three put up very similar overall PPR
numbers in 2013 (Witten perhaps even jumping way ahead of the others), just as most
projections seem to state for them.
Two or Four Starting WRs (or RBs…or QBs…or…)
If the number of WRs changes from the “standard” three that we are using as our basis,
the value of the top end WRs fluctuates dramatically. The basic concept of “draft value” is
derived on two things: actual points scored, and advantage over the average (or the lowest)
player at that some position. This point can be seen very clearly in scoring only leagues wherein
the kickers generally put up the most points in any given season. But there is very little
difference between the top kicker and the #16 kicker; therefore, kickers have very low relative
value as you will get a competitive score no matter when you draft your kicker. In many leagues
this same argument even can be used to describe QBs which often are the highest point scorers
in total, but show relatively little variation between the top guy and the #10 scorer (and thus, the
“worst starter”). Since WR is the position which shows the greatest variation in the number of
starters, I will focus on using WRs as an example in this section, but the same principles can be
applied to any position in which you have a grossly different number of starters from this
article’s “standard” lineup.
If you have a 10-team league with each team starting three WRs, there are by definition
30 starting WRs in your fantasy league each week (forget about bye weeks, etc. for now). In
most scoring systems (PPR or non-PPR), the top tier WRs are projected to outscore the #30 WR
by well over 50%. In this year’s projections, this is comparing Calvin Johnson with Jeremy
Maclin. So now you have a baseline for comparing the top WRs against the worst starting WR in
the league and assigning value. Now, if you only start two WRs, the worst starter is only #20 on
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the overall ranking list (Dwayne Bowe or Wes Welker) and the difference between the top tier
and these guys is considerably smaller. Basically, with only 20 starting WRs, everyone has a
great pair of receivers so the WR is severely devalued. In these scenarios (after Megatron, of
course), you should not reach as high for that top tier WR since the drop-off at other positions
may come sooner and be sharper.
But if that same 10-team league starts four WRs per week, now you are looking at the
difference between Calvin Johnson and the #40 WR (Emmanuel Sanders in the current
projections) as the worst WR starter. Just like the argument made above, this sort of lineup now
increases the value of the top tier WRs. In fact, this also raises the value of the next tiers of WRs
also since everyone has to start so many players at that position. If you can load up on WRs and
(for example) start three top-15 WRs each week, this means that at least two other teams are
starting guys considerably worse than your trio and you have a decided advantage week to week
that can almost always offset slight disadvantages at the other positions. Mike Nazarek and I
have done this with great success several times in FanEx, as have several other owners in that
league. This also means that you can likely cause a WR panic (because there are still human
beings involved, after all…) by drafting WRs with three of your first four picks, and allow better
QBs and RBs to fall to you in the middle rounds anyway.
“Best-Ball” starting lineups
The FanEx Analysis Draft (FAD) recently completed, and this is a good example of what
I call the “best ball” scoring system. In a nutshell, the basic concept is that you do not have to
select your lineup week to week; your lineup is decided after the fact, as your best possible
lineup gets started for you once the stats are determined. While this takes the week-to-week
strategy out of the lineup decisions it also makes drafting very, VERY different. First of all, bye
weeks become very important, especially since these sorts of leagues often also do not allow for
in-season roster changes. If you can select a solid backup TE but he has the same bye week as
your #1, it may be better to eschew the backup until later in the draft and take a lesser one with
an alternate bye week.
It also means that you can draft a stud at a one-starter position (often TE or QB) and then
wait a lo-o-o-ong time for a backup…and then take a below-average guy in the last rounds with
an above-average matchup for the only week that you likely need him. Mike and I did this in the
FAD this year by hitching this season to Cam Newton and then waiting until 25 QBs were off
the board before selecting a riskier backup (Josh Freeman) with a decent matchup on the bye
week.
But the real important facet of the draft is that a certain type of player is now extremely
valuable as compared to a league win which one has to select the starting lineup. We all know
that guy: he is usually a WR that catches very few passes, but when he does get one….it could
become a 70-yard TD lickety-split. As fantasy owners we steer clear of those guys except as
roster fillers late in the draft because we never know when that huge 2-120-1 game is going to
occur. However, in a best-ball format you don’t have to know when they will occur, just that
they will! I won’t list all those guys that are week-to-week explosive and alternate hot and cold
(Santana Moss has made a great career of this, however). The key here is that one can often do
quite well by waiting on WRs until the latter half of the draft and then loading up on a gaggle of
guys like this. In a standard format, you would get crucified by drafting a WR corps of Percy
Harvin, Kenny Britt, DHB, Denarious Moore and Chris Givens. But if you just needed any three
of these guys to score in any given week and did not have to guess which three it would be, you
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could be competitive if you spent the first half of your draft loading up the dependable RBs, QBs
and TE on your roster. Ideally you would want to have a few better studs than this extreme
example, of course….but you can see where the value lies in the early rounds of your draft and
adjust to this sort of strategy very quickly, thus giving you a decided advantage week-to-week
with decidedly unspectacular overall WR numbers.
This same sort of analysis also works to a lesser extent with QBs as there are numerous
QBs which on any given week could put up very solid numbers while being very inconsistent. I
can see Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Sam Bradford and Joe Flacco fitting that formula in this
year’s crop (and maybe even E.J. Manuel and Geno Smith as well) although none would ever be
drafted as a starter in “standard”12 team leagues. The depth among the top 10 QBs is such that
this likely does not have to be your strategy from the start, but you can certainly do well with
two lesser backups rather than one highly-rated QB#2. Once you have your likely every-week
starter in the fold, I strongly recommend waiting on a backup and getting two chances for a big
score every week with guys that could explode once in a while. I also would look for backup
QBs that are likely to scramble one in for a score (like the aforementioned rookies and maybe
even Jake Locker) since that boosts the fantasy numbers better than a big passing day, usually.
This mostly impacts WRs and QBs - positions with more frequent week-to-week scoring
fluctuations among the mid-range or lower players. This also reflects the reason why RBs
generally go at the top end of the draft; it is not just their overall higher scoring potential, it is
also the predictability of their scoring. As such, there is reduced opportunity to use such a ballsy
strategy in these scoring systems by taking a bunch of lesser RBs; there simply are not a lot of
guys that burst into the top 10 weekly rankings at that position from “out of nowhere” (although
I should point out that Ian Allen, Tony Holm and Greg Kellogg have followed a version of this
strategy on-and-off in the FAD with decent success). Nonetheless, in this format, it can be a
very valid strategy to load up on predictable workhorse RBs, one decent and two erratic QBs,
and a cadre of weekly boom-or-bust WRs.
Making a Plan
One thing remains to be stated, and it is very important. Pick your strategy and plan your
draft around it. And make it your plan – don’t listen to any of the so-called experts about which
strategy you MUST use. The strategy is as unique as the drafter, as the league and the league
rules, etc….and in many cases you can win with whatever you choose if you are a smart drafter
and a shrewd owner. It is not unreasonable to take the best player available for several rounds,
and then to adjust to one of these strategies as you see what others around you have done or
likely will be doing. Even within the guidelines listed here, there are a great many variations on
the theme which will be dependant on your draft position, your knowledge of the players in your
league, and many other factors. And while it is important to stick to your plan as best as possible,
it is also important to realize when there is ludicrous value and scoop it up. There is a reason that
the bulk of the successful NFL GMs utilize the “best player available” draft strategy…you can
never have too many good players in any league, regardless of position.
I suggest that you think about experimenting with mock drafts to try new approaches.
And don’t be afraid in a free league (or better yet... in your local, work and/or buddies league, so
as to confuse them and make them uncomfortable!) to try something completely out of character,
just to see if it works; not only will you learn something that could be beneficial for your overall
FFL success and enjoyment, it could be immensely gratifying to really mess with the minds of
the other owners that THINK they know EXACTLY what you will be doing!
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Conclusion
There are of course many other variations on league scoring systems and lineup requirements
which could also alter draft strategy; if there are major opportunities to improve this article for
future years, just let me know and I will certainly work them in! In any draft, remember that the
point of any draft pick you make is not to maximize that selection, but rather it is to help
you maximize your entire lineup or roster. The intent is to make sure that your 8-10 starters
each week outscore the other guy’s 8-10 starters, not just to make sure that your first round pick
matches his first round pick, or your RB#1 matches his RB#1 as best as possible. The style of
your league and its scoring system will clearly have an impact on a good owner’s cheat sheets,
but a great owner will also change his overall strategy in the draft to fit the circumstances.
~ end ~
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The ABCs of Auction Draft Leagues in 2013
June 28, 2013
by: Steve Yerger
It happens to you every year, your excitement is mounting for your upcoming fantasy football
draft and you draw for your draft position only to get position #10. Once again you will get shut
out of the true stud RBs. Well, if you’re looking for a change, welcome to the world of fantasy
football auction leagues, where every player is available to every owner if they have the desire
and/or ability to pay for them. If you’ve never tried it before, it brings a different level of
strategy and fun to your fantasy football experience. This article will give you a general
introduction to auction leagues, and hopefully help you decide to take the plunge. But before
reading on, please note that this article is intended as an overall introduction to auction leagues,
and may be too elementary for your needs.
The Basics
Fantasy Football Auction leagues are exactly what they sound like, an auction where every
owner starts with the same bank amount and bids on players to fill their roster. The most
common format starts each owner with a $200 account and has owners nominate players one at a
time (according to an auction order) to be put on the auction block at a usually predetermined
starting bid amount, with predetermined bid increments in place. Bidding proceeds on the first
player until an auctioneer declares bidding to be over on that player once bidding has stopped.
That player gets awarded to the high bidder, and the auction proceeds to the next player up for
auction. The process comes to a completion once every owner has filled their roster to their
satisfaction and stops nominating any more players. It is important to have minimum or preset
player requirements in place to keep the auction on an even keel. This prevents teams from
spending their entire bank on 3 or 4 stud players and waiting until the waiver wire opens to
complete their roster. What usually happens as the auction is winding down is that every owner
gets to a point where they can only afford to get minimum bid players that they nominate to meet
the minimum requirements.
Style of League
Once you have decided to try an auction league and understand the basics, deciding how to
“complete” your auction is the first big decision.
The “traditional” style is a live auction with an auctioneer, where everyone is in the same room.
The auctioneer should preferably be an unbiased (and sober) individual who does not have a
team in the league. Their job is to keep the auction moving, using a consistent amount of time
before closing a bid, and to track the auction as it progresses. They also need to be empowered
to immediately handle any bidding violations that may occur, such as a identifying a team that is
overbidding on a player which would leave them with not enough cash to meet the minimum
roster requirements. You may even want to offer a small fee to the auctioneer for their services
to ensure a dedicated performance. One of the biggest advantages of a traditional auction is that
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you get to see an owners’ reaction when you top their bid, and can adjust your strategy
accordingly. One of the disadvantages, especially for a first-timer, is that it can be a hectic
environment that could completely overwhelm you if you are unprepared.
The “live online auction” is very similar to the traditional, except that each owner can sit in their
own home and bid in the auction from their own computer. Rather than having an auctioneer,
the site that’s hosting your auction will have an online bid timer that will award the player to the
high bidder when the clock hits zero. Usually a player will initially come up for auction with a
30 second clock that gets reset each time the high bid gets beat. Once the timer drops below 10
seconds for the first time, the clock will then only reset to 10 seconds. The main advantage to
this style of auction is that most sites you use will automatically be tracking the progress of the
auction for you, and will not allow owners to overbid themselves just to run prices up. Also, you
can compete from the comfort of your own home with all of the information you may need
readily available to you. The disadvantage is that you lose the personal interaction, and you
could be at risk of bidding errors, depending on how the site is set up. One popular feature I see
at auction sites is a “+1” button that allows you to quickly enter a bid at 1 minimum increment
above the current high bid. The problem comes along when 3 owners hit the +1 button almost
simultaneously and you end up getting the high bid at 3 above, rather than just 1. To combat
this, I always use the manual bid input screen and type the amount I want to bid while I am
thinking and have it prepared for a last minute bid. That way, if 2 other owners click the +1, one
of them will get stuck with the high bid at 1 higher than they expected. Since your manual
amount no longer beats the high bid, it won’t register and you should have plenty of time with
the clock reset to enter the new amount and think.
The final auction style that I am most experienced in is an “E-Bay” type auction. These auctions
are also done online, however, in this style entire blocks of players are put up for bid
simultaneously with a 24 hour bid clock that gets reset once a high bid is beaten. Usually, once a
player comes off the board after not being bid on for 24 hours, either the team the won that
player or the team that originally nominated that player will have 24 hours to place a new player
on the auction board at the minimum opening bid amount. Once all teams stop nominating new
players, the auction will conclude when the final player comes off the board. These auction
types generally also allow “proxy” bidding, which gives you the option to enter a high bid
amount on a player. For example, Team A currently has the high bid on Player Z at $20 (with no
proxy set and $1 bid increments). If I bid $30 on that player, the system will give the high bid to
me at $21, leaving my $30 amount as a hidden proxy amount. That way, if someone comes in
and bids $22, the system will automatically up my bid to match theirs and my high bid amount
will now display as $22. The clock will not reset until someone bids $31 to beat my hidden $30
proxy bid. This allows the auction to proceed a little faster when the clock isn’t constantly reset.
I find this style of auction the most compelling, as you could have high bids on a block of 7
players that nobody has bid on in awhile, and just as you’re starting to feel comfortable that you
will win all 7 players, 3 or 4 owners may all of a sudden show up and collectively top all of your
bids, causing you to have to completely reformulate your strategy. The advantage of E-Bay
auctions is that allows you to enjoy the auction process from the comfort of your home without
having to set aside a 4 to 5 hour block of time to get it done live. The disadvantage is that the
entire process can take several weeks, depending on your league size.
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The Salary Cap
Once you decide how you want to perform your auction, you need to determine a workable cap
amount. The standard $200 league with $1 bid increments that seems to be most common is
usually set up for a 16 man roster. In this format the average cost per player is $12.50 and the
top studs will go for $50 or higher. If you win a player for $50, you will then need 15 more
players to fill your roster with your remaining $150, or $10 per player, and still be a competitive
bidder. However, if your league uses IDP players or has larger roster sizes, this cap amount may
not be enough to allow for competitive bidding. Assume the same $200 cap with a 32 man
roster, and all of a sudden your average per player is down to $6.25 and a $50 bid would
virtually cripple you, leaving you only an average of $4.75 to spend per player on the rest of
your roster. There’s just not enough room for the bids to escalate high enough to keep the
bidding competitive.
Preparation
The key to auction leagues is not much different than in standard draft leagues: preparation. The
more time you put in before the auction, generally the more success you will have. Bad
scheduling luck and injuries will still play their part, of course, but a well prepared owner will
have a distinct advantage over the guy who walks into the auction with the fantasy football
magazine still stapled inside the bag. This is especially true if your salary cap or scoring system
has peculiarities that make the standard $200 auction values that most magazines produce
irrelevant. Developing your own set of auction values is a tedious and time consuming process,
but is usually well worth the effort. At the very least you should use the auction values given in
your favorite publication as a starting point, and adapt them to fit your league and your own
personal preferences. Also, one of the most fundamental preparations, especially in a live
traditional auction, is being prepared to be organized. If you have the luxury of taking your
laptop with you, have excel spreadsheets set up and ready to go to help you track your
opponents’ rosters. Being able to know exactly how much $ every team has left at any given
moment, and which teams still need their starting QB versus the teams that already have 2 on
their roster, will help you decipher bidding patterns and determine when to stop bidding or when
to turn up the heat. Even if you have to do it manually, come up with a system ahead of time to
track everything, and your auction experience will be so much more rewarding.
Tactics
One of the most intriguing aspects of an auction league is the tactics involved in your bidding
patterns. If there’s a player you absolutely don’t want on your roster, don’t just sit back quietly
and wait for the next player to be nominated. Madly scribble on a blank sheet and act like you’re
crunching numbers to see if you can afford to bid. Also, don’t be afraid to bid on players you
don’t really want. The more others have to spend to get that player just leaves fewer dollars for
them to compete against you with for the players you truly want. Just be prepared every once in
awhile to get stuck with a player that you were merely trying to run up the price on. Also, vary
your bidding patterns and pay attention to others’ (if you happen to be in the same room). If you
enter the bidding early and stay in it to the bitter end only on players that you really want, other
astute owners will catch on to that pretty quickly and easily be able to manipulate you into
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paying a higher price for your must-haves. Another important tactic is to put some thought into
your nominations. I see so many owners just nominate whatever name is next on their list
without even thinking about it. If you spent big early on to get Aaron Rodgers, nominate Peyton
Manning or Drew Brees on your next turn and force others to spend big on a position that you
already have filled.
Strategy
While it’s important to come up with a strategy and try to stick to it, auctions are constantly
changing, and being too rigid with your game plan can cause you to miss out on some nice
values. That’s why my main strategy is to try to get value with every dollar spent. That doesn’t
mean you have to get every player for under the auction value you had assigned to them, because
value can be a relative thing. If the top 9 RBs all went for $10 more than your auction values,
and you got #10 and #11 for only $2 more than your assigned values, that’s a big value victory.
But, despite being a value seeker, when it comes to overall auction strategy, I can’t help myself
from falling into the “aggressive bidder” mentality. I like to feel like I am controlling the
pricing, making teams overspend to get the players they really want. While this strategy seems
to give you a lot of control early on, if you get into a lot of bidding wars in the early stages, you
almost always end up with a few high priced players on your roster. This isn’t a bad thing, as
long as they were the right players who were on your target list, but it does leave you vulnerable
in the later stages of the auction to the opposite side of the spectrum, the “value extremist”.
There is usually only one or two of these owners in every auction, and you can usually spot them
quickly, as they always seem to drop out of the bidding just when it starts to get serious. This
strategy can be quite effective if you can pick the right time to swoop in and start spending the
money you saved by being conservative early on. The problem is being able to identify when
that moment is. What normally happens is that the other owners run out of money too quickly,
and all of that cash that you saved to steal all of the value players later on ends up getting
wasted, as there is nobody left who can compete with you and you end the auction with $20 or so
left unspent, and an unspent auction dollars can’t help your team at all. These two extreme
strategies can be very rewarding if played properly, but they also come with a lot more risk,
which is why you find most owners sticking to the “middle of the road”. These owners tend to
get involved in a decent amount of action early on, but with the sole intent of coming out with
only 2 or 3 higher dollar salaries, and then try to fill the roster with value/upside guys later on.
While this is a safe and successful strategy, it also has risks if too many owners try to employ it,
as too many teams will shut down their bidding for awhile after getting the big dollar guys.
Then, when they’re ready to start getting their value guys, there is too much competition
remaining and these upside type players end up getting bid up above where they should be.
End Game
No matter which type of auction league you decide to try, or which strategy and tactics you plan
to employ, I encourage you to try auction based fantasy football, as it truly gives you an
opportunity to build the exact kind of team you want and gives you access to every player.
While this was just a basic overview, there is a wealth of experienced auction league members in
the ffmastermind.com forums that can provide further guidance. Best of luck in 2013.
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~ end ~
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The 2013 NFL Schedule: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
June 28, 2013
by: John Holler
Of all the homework fantasy owners do, among the most overlooked is the schedule of
opponents a team faces. A fast start can lead to good things all season. A team that drops to 2-4
early has a lot of sledding to do to get back on track and most don’t get that job done.
At FF Mastermind, we noticed the impact of a brutal schedule or an easy schedule into
how teams can make a jump from nowhere to somewhere and back in a hurry. What follows is a
team-by-team breakdown with a focus on where the difficult patches in their schedules will be.
After each team is a list of the final four games – when fantasy owners are fighting it out for a
championship in their playoffs and money is made.
With teams like New England, New Orleans and Cincinnati have ideal schedules facing
them and teams like Green Bay and Minnesota facing brutal schedules, use this as a tool to help
break ties for players who you have rated essentially equal. Having knowledge of when a team
faces the most difficult competition (or the easiest) could be a factor not just on draft day, but
throughout the season. If a team has a brutal closing schedule and players have padded some fat
early stats, trading away those players while their value is at its peak – ideally for players with a
cushy closing schedule, could be the difference between making the playoffs and winning it all.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (STL, at Ten, at Sea, SF) – The Cardinals will have the opportunity
to get off to a solid start to the season. They don’t face a playoff team until Week 6, but then the
schedule takes a nasty turn as they play four straight playoff teams (at San Francisco and vs.
Seattle, Atlanta and Houston at home). Then they hit another five game stretch against nonplayoff teams before closing out the season against the Seahawks and 49ers. It’s not a bad
schedule, it just has a couple of rough patches. The good news for Arizona is that their most
difficult stretch of games are all at home. VERDICT: Fairly Good.
ATLANTA FALCONS (at GB, WAS, at SF, CAR) – The Falcons have the chance to get off
to a strong start. After opening the season at New Orleans, they play four of their next five
games at home. The entire season, the Falcons play just four playoff teams and weather
shouldn’t be a factor during the fantasy playoffs other than a Dec. 8 night game at Green Bay in
Week 14. The Falcons will need to build divisional equity early, because they only play one
division game in December, but the schedule lays out nicely for a division repeat. VERDICT:
Good.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (MIN, at Det, NE, at Cin) – The Ravens don’t get any breaks outside
the division, but they got a scheduling break by getting most of their toughest non-division
opponents at home – 2012 playoff teams Houston, Green Bay, Minnesota and New England. The
only playoff teams they face on the road are Denver in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 17. They
get stuck with a couple of back-to-back road games, but they don’t leave the Eastern Time Zone
for either of them. The only game they play on the West Coast is the season-opening Thursday
night game which will give them 10 days between games, so the schedule couldn’t have fallen
much better for the defending champs. VERDICT: Surprisingly Good.
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BUFFALO BILLS (at TB, at Jax, MIA, at NE) – One of the advantages of playing in Buffalo
is the home field weather advantage the Bills typically have late in the season. However, they
play three of their final four games on the road – two in Florida, which all be negates that
advantage. They have three of their first four games at home, but none of them are they likely to
be favorites in (New England, Carolina and Baltimore). Then it gets worse, as they head to tough
venues to be a road team – New Orleans and Pittsburgh. The schedule never has an extended
stretch of easy games and they may want to move to Toronto permanently. VERDICT: Ugly.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (at NO, NYJ, NO, at Atl) – The Panthers have a tough start of the
2013 schedule with their first two home games against Seattle and the Giants before they hit
their bye week in Week 4. After that they play three of their next four games on the road and, in
a three-week span in November, play the Falcons, 49ers and Patriots in consecutive weeks. It
won’t be easy during the fantasy playoffs, but, if nothing else, they will have control over their
own divisional destiny – playing the Saints twice and at Atlanta in the final four weeks. They
will have to fight their way through a difficult schedule that seems stacked against them.
VERDICT: Bad.
CHICAGO BEARS (DAL, at Cle, at Phi, GB) – The teams in the NFC North are going to face
a gauntlet and won’t get many breaks along the way. Chicago opens the season against playoff
teams Cincinnati and Minnesota and then face the Steelers, Saints, Giants, Redskins and Packers
in a six-week span. They play seven 2012 playoff teams and that doesn’t include Pittsburgh,
New Orleans, the Giants, Dallas and Philadelphia. The only good news is that, when the fantasy
playoffs begin, Chicago has the Cowboys at home and Cleveland on the road, which should keep
fantasy owners from running away in horror, but this isn’t a schedule the Bears want if they’re
looking to return to being a playoff team. VERDICT: Quite Bad.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (IND, at Pit, MIN, BAL) – The most difficult part of the Bengals
schedule will be at the end of the season when fantasy owners. It can argued that the Bengals
won’t be an underdog until Week 10 at Baltimore. They play their toughest early opponents
(Pittsburgh, Green Bay and New England) at home and don’t play a 2012 playoff team on the
road other than divisional rival Baltimore. The Bengals have a lot of steam coming off two
playoff seasons and being viewed as a favorite to win the AFC North this year, but will face their
biggest challenge in December during the fantasy playoffs. The best news is that the three
playoff teams they face are all at home, which should have Cincinnati fans confident that they’re
going to finally reclaim the AFC North title. VERDICT: A Little Too Good.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (at NE, CHI, at NYJ, at Pit) – The Browns have been one of the
worst road teams in the league and the schedule doesn’t do them any favors. Not only do they
play three 2012 playoff teams in their first three road games (Baltimore, Minnesota and Green
Bay), but play three of their final four games on the road – all in potentially bad weather
conditions. There weren’t a lot of reasons to get on the Browns fantasy bandwagon to begin
with, but with such a difficult start and finish to the schedule – when fantasy owners and NFL
teams alike need to set a tempo for their season – it appears that things are pretty dismal for the
Dawg Pound. VERDICT: Pretty Bad.
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DALLAS COWBOYS (at Chi, GB, at Was, PHI) – The Cowboys have been given a schedule
layout that looks ideal from the start – their toughest opponents at home, where they will have a
distinct advantage. They play the Giants, Broncos, Redskins, Vikings and Packers at home and
don’t face a 2012 playoff team on the road until the Sunday before Christmas against the
Redskins – their only playoff opponent on the road. The schedule-makers love America’s Team
and it’s pretty obvious that they laid out their schedule in a way to give Dallas the best chance to
succeed. VERDICT: Suspiciously Good.
DENVER BRONCOS (TEN, SD, at Hou, at Oak) – For having a first-place schedule, the
Broncos get to spread out the more difficult games and, with three of their first four games at
home, will have the chance to get off to a strong start. After their bye week in Week 9, they will
play five of their final eight games against division rivals, so they should control their own
divisional destiny. For teams that play in 16-week schedules, the Broncos have one of the more
favorable runs, with two games at home against warm weather teams and their only road game in
the dome at Houston. If you had any concerns about taking Denver players, the closing schedule
shouldn’t be one of them. VERDICT: Awfully Good.
DETROIT LIONS (at Phi, BAL, NYG, at Min) – For a team looking to come back from a
dismal 2012 season, the early schedule doesn’t help much. They play four of their first six games
on the road and their two home games are against division rivals Minnesota and Chicago. From
Thanksgiving on, they have about as difficult a schedule as anyone, closing out vs. Green Bay, at
Philly, vs. Baltimore and the Giants and at Minnesota in the season finale. The Lions are under a
lot of pressure to recreate the magic of 2011, but this schedule, which includes three back-toback road games, isn’t conducive to getting that done. VERDICT: Quite Ugly.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (ATL, at Dal, PIT, at Chi) – The Packers are going to have to be
road warriors because they play their first four road games of the season against 2012 playoffs –
against Super Bowl opponents San Francisco and Baltimore and wild cards Minnesota and
Cincinnati. With seven games against 2012 playoff teams (as well as Philadelphia, the Giants,
Dallas and Pittsburgh), the Packers will have to be on top of their game and will be tested early
and often with what may end up being the toughest schedule in the league. VERDICT: Butt
Ugly.
HOUSTON TEXANS (at Jax, at Ind, DEN, at Ten) – The Texans will be tested early, playing
the Ravens, Seahawks and 49ers in Weeks 3-5, but, after that, all of their toughest games will be
at home (Indianapolis, New England and Denver). If there is a downside, it is that three of their
final four games are on the road, but they’re all division games, which should give Houston
every chance to once again remain the top dog of the AFC South. VERDICT: Not Bad At All.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (at Cin, HOU, at KC, JAX) – The Colts start the season with backto-back home games in which they will be prohibitive favorites. They will face a tough stretch
before their bye week in Week 8, which includes San Francisco, Seattle and Denver, but will
have five of their six division games after the bye. The also have a decent closing schedule
despite playing on the road at Cincinnati and Kansas City. They won’t be sneaking up on
anybody this year, but they play just two 2012 playoff teams in the second half of the season,
which should help owners with Colts on their roster. VERDICT: Reasonably Good.
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (HOU, BUF, TEN, at Ind) – Few people are going to be
jumping on the Jacksonville bandwagon, but, with three straight home games during the fantasy
playoffs. In their first eight games, the Jags will play only one game in their own division so, if
they can hold up through the initial onslaught of the season, they will have a lot of control over
their future. In their final eight games, they play five games against their division and the other
three against Arizona, Cleveland and Buffalo. If it was any other team, they might have the best
fantasy schedule in the league, but, with owners so gun shy of the Jags, it only gives them reason
to draft one of them and not ignore them completely. VERDICT: Very Good.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (at Was, at Oak, IND, at SD) – The Chiefs will have time to get
their new squad together before they face the critical challenges of winning division games,
which helped them win their division in 2011 and fall flat in 2012. In their first nine games prior
to the bye week, Andy Reid’s new-look Chiefs will play just one game in the division (at home
against the Raiders and will face just one 2012 playoff team in that stretch. Things will get
tougher after the bye, but five of their final seven games are against AFC West opponents, so, if
they’re going to make a playoff run, they’ll do it against division opponents. The biggest
drawback is that three of their final four games will be on the road, but it’s a nice looking
schedule as a whole. VERDICT: Fairly Good.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (At Pitt, NE, at Buff, NYJ) – The Dolphins don’t get any favors done for
them. They play three of their first four games on the road and their two home games are against
Atlanta and Baltimore – both of whom will be prohibitive road favorites. It doesn’t help late
either, because the advantage of playing in South Florida is negated in December by playing
road games at the Jets, Pittsburgh and Buffalo. If the Dolphins are going to make a run this year,
they’ll have to do it without the benefit of a cushy schedule. VERDICT: Very Bad.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (at Balt, PHI, at Cin, DET) – The Vikings don’t play a 2012 playoff
team until Week 8, but the good news for Adrian Peterson owners ends there. Not only do the
Vikings have a Bataan Death March from Week 8 to 16, which includes a pair with Green Bay
and road games at Dallas, Seattle, Baltimore and Cincinnati. Their fantasy playoff schedule
looks difficult as well, with the Ravens, Eagles and Bengals all looking to lock down playoff
spots in December. Throw in that Minnesota loses a home game due to the London meeting with
Pittsburgh (that also includes a forced bye in Week 5), if Minnesota is going to make a repeat
run to the playoffs, it may be just as improbable as their run last year coming off a 3-13 season in
2011. VERDICT: Double-Bag Ugly.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (CLE, at Mia, at Balt, BUFF) – The Patriots are always one of
the favorites to be in the Super Bowl and the last thing they need is a schedule that includes
stretches in which they should be prohibitive favorites. With the exception of two short rough
patches – at Atlanta, at Cincinnati and vs. New Orleans in October and vs. Denver and at
Houston in Weeks 12-13, the schedule lays out nicely. With Cleveland and Miami in Weeks 1415 when most leagues are in their fantasy playoffs, it would appear the Patriots are being given
breaks throughout the schedule and could help them lock down home field for the playoffs
VERDICT: Much Too Good.
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (CAR, at STL, at Car, TB) – The Saints are a different team at
home than on the road and will be given every opportunity to get off to a strong start. They play
three of there first four games at home, including division rival Atlanta, Arizona and Miami.
While that catches up with them in November and December – four road games out of five in
that span – with the Panthers twice, St. Louis and Tampa Bay during the fantasy playoffs, that
alone may be enough to push owners into bumping the rankings of Saints players even higher. A
strong start and a strong finish look very possible. VERDICT: Big Easy Good.
NEW YORK GIANTS (at SD, SEA, at Det, WAS) – The Giants won’t be spending much time
at Met Life Stadium early, playing three of their first four games on the road and their only home
game coming against Eli’s brother Peyton. In the first nine games, they play only two 2012
playoff teams and both of them are at home. From the time they travel to Philadelphia Oct. 27,
they will spend more than a month without leaving New York. Their closing schedule will test
their mettle – Washington twice and Seattle at home in the final five – but the G-Men have to
head to the West Coast just once all season, which should bode well if the Giants are expected to
return to the playoffs. VERDICT: Fuggetaboutit Good.
NEW YORK JETS (OAK, at Caro, CLE, at Mia) – The Jets are going to have to prove
themselves on the road through the first three months of the season, playing most of their
toughest games on the road – at New England, Atlanta, Cincinnati and Baltimore. But, few teams
have a more lenient December than the Jets. With home games against Miami, Oakland and
Clevelan and road games at Carolina and Miami, all signs point to the Jets having the deck
stacked in their favor. If the team hasn’t quit on Rex Ryan, they could have a sneaky good
closing schedule. VERDICT: Bad Early, Good Late.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (at NYJ, KC, at SD, DEN) – There aren’t many Raiders that fantasy
owners are drooling over and the potential for them to get off to a rocky start is definitely there –
with three of their first four games against 2012 playoff teams (at Indianapolis, at Denver and vs.
Washington). But, after that initial onslaught, the Raiders face just one 2012 playoff team in the
next 11 games (Houston in Week 11). The fantasy playoff schedule is good through Weeks 1416 and, if the Broncos are resting for the playoffs in Week 17, it could be among the best. But,
seeing how few Raiders are hot fantasy commodities, it may not matter. VERDICT: Bad Team,
Pretty Good Schedule.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (DET, at Min, CHI, at Dal) – The Eagles have one of the more
favorable schedules in the league. If RG3 isn’t ready for the start of the season, the opener on the
road won’t be so daunting. After a three-game road trip in Weeks 4-6, the Eagles will play five
of their next seven games from mid-October to early December at home. The only way weather
will be a factor during the fantasy playoffs will be in Philly, since both their road games in
December are under domes. The Eagles are looking to get off to a fast start and the schedule
appears to be lined up to allow that to happen. VERDICT: Good.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (MIA, CIN, at GB, CLE) – Any schedule that includes seven
teams that made the playoffs last year would almost surely fit into the “Ugly” category, but, if
you have that kind of layout, it couldn’t be much better than the Steelers got. They don’t play
against playoff teams in back-to-back games until Weeks 15-16. But, they do have a lot of games
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vs. playoff teams on the road, including Cincinnati, Minnesota (at London), New England,
Baltimore and Green Bay. The road back to respectability won’t come easy, but, for as bad a
schedule as the Steelers have, it could have been much worse. VERDICT: Bad, But Not Too
Bad.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (at Ari, NO, TB, at Sea) – The Rams won’t have an easy go of things early,
playing at Atlanta and Dallas and vs. San Francisco from Week 2-4, but don’t have any long
streaks of playing against non-playoff opponents. From the start of the season to Week 13, the
Rams never go consecutive weeks without going up against a 2012 playoff team. Fortunately for
them, the longest stretch they have is during the fantasy playoffs in Weeks 14-16. The Rams are
a team that is hoping to make strides in what has become one of the toughest divisions in the
NFL, but the saving grace is that they will be indoors for all three weeks of the fantasy playoffs
and, if they make the expected improvement, it could pay off big. VERDICT: Not Too Bad.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (NYG, at Den, OAK, KC) – The Chargers have been notoriously
slow starters and it won’t help that they will have just three homes games in the first nine weeks
of the season – and only twice from Sept. 10 to Nov. 9. Making matters worse is that none of the
home games will be easy, playing Houston Dallas, Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati and the
Giants in the first six home games. The good news is that, if the Chargers can withstand five
trips to the East Coast – all for early games – they will have four of their final five games at
home. But, nobody has to travel east to play games at 10 a.m. local time, which historically has
been a killer for West Coast teams. VERDICT: Uglier Than a Philip Rivers Pass.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (SEA, at TB, ATL, at Ari) – If the Niners are to repeat as NFC
champions, they’re going to face an early minefield. In their first five games, they play Green
Bay, Seattle, Indianapolis and Houston. Fortunately for them, three of those games will be at
home. After the Houston game in Week 5, they play just one 2012 playoff team in the next seven
weeks. If there is a reason for concern, it is that their fantasy playoff schedule will include
Seattle and Atlanta. Again, they’re fortunate in that both of them will be at home. They won’t
have a paved road to the playoffs, but, if they can hold serve on the road, they have all of the
schedule advantages at home. VERDICT: Not As Bad As It Could Be.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (at SF, at NYG, ARI, STL) – The Seahawks are the trendy pick to
be the next big thing in the NFC, but the schedule makers forced them into three back-to-back
road games. If they are to win it all, they will need to be strong down the stretch. They have four
of their final six games at home, but have to face a five-game gauntlet from Week 10-15 in
which they play four games at Atlanta, vs. Minnesota, vs. New Orleans and at the Giants. If you
play a 17-week fantasy season, home games against dome teams Arizona and St. Louis could be
the tipping point in winning a championship. VERDICT: Not Too Bad.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (BUF, SF, at STL, at NO) – The Bucs lost five straight games
late last season after being one of the surprise teams early in 2012. The 2013 schedule could
shape up similarly. One would think that if the NFL wants to have as many games as possible in
which weather won’t be a factor, they would schedule more games in places like Tampa late in
the season. But, the Bucs will play four of their final six games on the road. Fortunately for
them, three of those will be indoors (Detroit, St. Louis and New Orleans), so weather shouldn’t
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be a factor. The Bucs only have to head west once all season and that will be at midseason.
VERDICT: Fairly Good.
TENNESSEE TITANS (at Den, ARI, at Jax, HOU) – The Titans have been left behind the
dominant Texans and emerging Colts and the schedule for 2013 doesn’t hold a ton of promise.
The season starts with road games at Pittsburgh and Houston and, prior to their bye week, a
back-to-back shot against Seattle and San Francisco. Their season will likely be decided in the
second half, as they play five of their final eight games against division opponents. If there is a
plus side to the 2013 slate it’s that, when most fantasy titles are decided in Weeks 15 and 16,
they draw the Cardinals and Jaguars – two teams expected to have been long since eliminated
from playoff contention. VERDICT: Not Good, But Not Horribly Bad.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (KC, at Atl, DAL, at NYG) – The Redskins stunned the NFL by
winning seven straight games after a 3-6 start to the 2012 season. The Redskins face a difficult
schedule that has very few breaks along the way. It can be argued the only back-to-back games
that the Redskins will be favored will be Weeks 3-4 vs. Detroit and Oakland. Outside their
division, their five road games will include trips to 2012 playoff teams Green Bay, Denver,
Minnesota and Atlanta – all of which will be difficult wins. The Redskins shocked the world last
year. They aren’t going to sneak up on anybody this year and won’t have an easy road to repeat.
VERDICT: Kind of Ugly.
~ end ~
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Exploding on the Scene: 2013’s Third-Year Receivers
June 28, 2013
by: John Cooney
There are three factors to strongly consider when projecting which year-three receivers are in the
mix for a breakout campaign.
1. Skill
2. Measureables
3. Opportunity
Receivers that are primed for a breakout performance often share these three attributes. Rarely
does any player in the NFL go on to stardom without a specific skill set. We’ve all heard the
Combine-clichés… solid route runner, a hands catcher, tracks the ball, gets off the line, is proready. All these workout descriptions actually do translate into fantasy football relevance. Sure,
there are those rare breeds that just out-work their opposition and break the mold. But even the
talent-challenged have certain skills that an astute coach can use to the utmost advantage. Wild
Bill Belichick’s utilization of Wes Welker is a perfect example of a player with limited overall
skills being able to excel (and he was a third year “exploder” back in 2007). SKILL… identify
receivers who are just all-around talented or display exceptional aptitude at specific aspects of
their game. For the sharp fanballers, recognizing skill in a receiver comes down to watching
game tape/videos and players passing the “eye test”.
The NFL Combine and college Pro Days offer excellent points of reference when attempting to
create a “want” list of probable third year breakout receivers. Forty-time is the first key
“measureable” to check on. Start warming up to a pass catcher who busts a forty yard dash at 4.5
seconds or less. Running a 4.6 is not a deal-breaker, but any times closer to the 4.7 mark almost
always is a dead-end. A good forty time combined with impressive size (6’1” and above) should
get your third year radar buzzing. Today’s passing game is focusing on bigger wideouts offering
a wider catch-zone and having the ability to “sky” for contested balls. Again, size isn’t the endall, but size-speed packages in the right program are juicy. OK, the route runners you’re looking
at can run fast and are big… can they catch? Likely these players have limited playing time in
their first two pro seasons and fail to provide enough evidence. Take a look back at their college
work, specifically their games played, reception totals and yards per reception average (YPR).
You’d like to see at least two full seasons in college as a starter, solid reception totals that
coincide with the style of offense they played in and a healthy YPR (14.0 and over). Don’t weigh
too heavily the amount of times a receiver finds the end zone in college. With the quirky
offenses and immature passers that abound in the amateur ranks, touchdowns (or lack of) often
do not paint an accurate picture of a wide receiver’s “measurables”. To get our third year
exploder list together, we need receivers mostly that can run, carry impressive size and have
performed on the spectacular side (solid YPR) rather than accumulate numbers steadily (high
catch totals-low YPR).
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Any talented player at any position that is going to put up good-to-dynamic stats needs one key
factor… OPPORTUNITY. The third year receiver is no exception; if he’s going to explode at
all, the junior year pass catcher has to have a chance to “show”. Opportunity knocks in various
ways, such as a longtime veteran wideout moving on to another organization via free agency.
Injury can rear its ugly head and open the door for the third year receiver. A new coaching staff
that wants to put its own stamp on a new offense may suddenly “fit”. A new quarterback, better
offensive line, weaker schedule, a head coach or offensive coordinator talking up a third year
wideout’s chances… whatever the factors are that gets the third year wide receiver on the field,
note it. Being in the league for two years isn’t a guarantee that a wide receiver will explode in
his third go-round. But factoring in his skill set, his physical attributes, college performance and
opportunity to see a major step-up in snaps narrows the field. SKILL, MEASUREABLES and
OPPORTUNITY… recognize and apply!
So which year-three wide receivers are primed to make fantasy owners wish they had called out
their names on draft day?
NOTE: ▲= receiver with excellent 3rd year potential to break out; ▼= drop in production
expected. No symbol means little change positively or negatively.
AJ GREEN- BENGALS, 6’4-211
Team G Target Rec Yard Avg TD
2011 CIN
15 115
65
1,057 16.3 7
2012 CIN
16 164
97
1,350 13.9 11
How much higher can this already accomplished and explosive wideout climb? Green has
tracked down 162 catches and 18 TDs in his first two NFL seasons. The fleet and lanky receiver
is a terrific hands catcher who aggressively attacks the football. He is one of the best high-point
receivers in the game and able to come away victorious on most contested passes his way. Green
possesses breakaway speed, keen concentration and terrific body control when the ball is in the
air. He tracks the football as well as any wideout in the game today. In truth, it is astounding how
he has been able to put up the impressive stat lines in his first two seasons given playing with a
limited-armed QB and his somewhat one-trick route tree. Green mostly runs outside the hash
marks and vertical patterns in the Bengals passing game. In some ways that is a good thing as
the former Georgia Bulldog is long but lean, a bit spindly in the legs and one tends to hold his
breath each time Green skys for a football; he tends to come down tangled with the defender. In
2013, AJ Green’s third season, it is hard to project better digits than the ones he produced in
2012. Cincy’s young receiving corps is deeper, talented and more experienced, QB Andy Dalton
is what he is and two rookies this season (TE Ty Eifert and RB Giovani Bernard) figure in the
pass play calls. Matching 2012’s campaign is the ceiling for the Bengals top playmaker. It is not
a third year “jump” to stardom in the tradition fantasy sense, but AJ Green is already playing and
producing at All-Pro levels. While most wideouts would be viewed as break out by putting up
90+ catches, 1400 yards and 10-12 TDs, For Green it’s just another year. OUTSTANDING!
▲JULIO JONES- FALCONS, 6’3-220
2011 ATL 13 94
54
959
17.8 8
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2012 ATL
16 128
79
1,198 15.2 10
Julio Jones is a physical monster as a wide receiver. Big, fast and strong, the Falcon junior
wideout is set to have his best year ever; isn’t that what third-year pass catching talents do?
Circumstances point to a kick-up in Jones’ numbers this season. Obviously he is now
experienced and playing fast rather than counting his steps in his patterns. He and QB Matt Ryan
are working on the same pages of the playbook comfortably and veteran WR Roddy White,
while still productive, is 31 and a half-step slower these days. TE Tony Gonzalez returns, but his
advanced age sets limits. It is time for Julio Jones to shine. Jones is a consistent hands catcher,
vital in becoming a premier fantasy receiver. The Colts Darrius Heyward-Bey is every bit the
physical equal of Jones, save the hands part; there lies the dividing line in fantasy evaluation. To
go with his great hands Jones brings blinding 4.3x40 speed… OUTSTANDING! What sets
Jones apart from other size-speed wideouts is his sharp run-after-catch skill. He knows how to
use the gifts he has. Look for the Falcon WR to see an increase in targets; just 2 more a game
adds up to 32 more chances to break loose. More throws his way means 90+ receptions and close
to 1400 yards; the scores are a given, gang. An added point-getter for the Falcons’ deadly pass
catcher is his consistent big-play threat. Jones not only will hit double-digit totals for TDs, but
many will be of the long range variety. In Atlanta’s up-tempo offense and pass-centric scheme,
Julio Jones blows up in year three.
▲RANDALL COBB- PACKERS, 5’10-191
2011 GB
15 31
25
375
15.0 1
2012 GB
15 104
80
954
11.9 8
Randall Cobb is among the hybrid wideouts in the NFL carving out a vogue niche underneath
the big, fast receivers we’ve seen come into the league the past few years. Cobb is the Swiss
Army knife of the Packer receiving unit as he can go deep, run slants, scrape the line of
scrimmage on drags and even take handoffs out of the backfield. Heck, he’s even quite capable
of tossing the rock, being a converted QB. Cobb is RB-esque, solidly built at 5’10-191 and
possesses top end speed to break away (consistent 4.46 x 40). In 2012 the Green Bay WR tripled
his targets and reception totals. However, his 104 targets are sure to climb even higher this
season. More importantly with Cobb, he doesn’t solely rely on Aaron Rodgers throwing the
football his way. The former Kentucky product is sure to line up in the backfield and garner a
fair share of carries. Packer coach McCarthy wants the football in Cobb’s hands any way
imaginable this season. Happening right before fanballers’ eyes is a change in the receiving
pecking order in Packerland. Gone are veterans Donald Driver (retired) and Greg Jennings
(Vikings). In limited action last year those two combined for 75 targets, 44 catches and 6 TDs.
Someone needs to absorb those opportunities and Randall Cobb is that someone. The Packers
have had a different wide receiver lead the team in TD catches each of the last 4 seasons (James
Jones, Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver). Jennings and Driver are gone; Jones and
Nelson already had their turn… Randall Cobb anyone?
▲CECIL SHORTS- JAGUARS, 6’-205
2011 JAX
10 12
2
30
15.0 1
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2012 JAX
14 105
55
979
17.8 7
Hats off to one of the NFL’s receiving magicians, Cecil Shorts III. The young man arrived in the
NFL from small-school Mt. Union, in a plodding Jacksonville offense with a QB that has more
active, jittery feet than Jacoby Jones on a dance floor and proceeds to put up super sophomore
numbers in 2012. ShortsIII is a precise route runner and a pure hands catcher. A by-product of
his excellent route recognition is his outstanding run-after-catch ability. CSIII sees the field
clearly and finds open seams with regularity. Health has been a bit of a concern as he battled
some ankle issues in college and suffered two concussions last season. The Jaguar wideout hits
the 40 yard dash consistently at 4.5, and is in the physical mold of another Mt. Union product
turned pro, Pierre Garcon. ShortsIII has superior hands and route savvy to Garcon and is just as
explosive with the ball in his hands. Jacksonville’s perceived WR1 Justin Blackmon starts the
year sitting out a suspension, opening the target flood gate for CSIII. While his projected starting
QB Blaine Gabbert isn’t going to set the football world on fire this year, an improvement in
some capacity is expected. If not, reserve Chad Henne runs the show and either scenario bodes
well for Cecil ShortsIII 2013 success potential. This is one of the NFL’s sharpest receivers right
now. Health and opportunity is all that he needs to rise up the WR rankings. With better
quarterbacking this is an 80-90 catch performer with a nose for the end zone. Don’t let the
Jacksonville uniform cloud your opinion of his potential in 2013.
TORREY SMITH- RAVENS, 6’1-204
2011 BALT 16 95
50
841
16.8 7
2012 BALT 16 110
49
855
17.4 8
Torrey Smith seems set to have THAT kind of season in 2013. Gone is target magnet Anquan
Boldin and Smith enters the much ballyhooed year three as a receiver with slight competition for
Joe Flacco passes in Baltimore. Smith is a bit limited in his route tree, mostly running the 7
(corner), 9 (fade) and 8 (post), which are vertical by design. The Maryland product has realized
success running mostly outside the hash marks thanks to his superior 4.4x40 speed. He is a legit
deep threat who has improved his hands as a pro. There are times when the Raven wideout will
allow the football into his body, causing DBs to close in and either knock a pass down or out of
his control. Last season the Baltimore speedster saw an uptick in targets by 15 yet his catch total
virtually flat-lined (50 to 49). However, Smith is a great character guy, a locker room positive
and a hard worker in practice. In 2013, Smith becomes the WR1 for QB Flacco. He’ll need to
continue to expand his route tree, but there is question whether he has the ability to be precise
enough going over the middle and getting into his cuts. Smith tends to be stiff-hipped and
doesn’t “sink” into his changes of direction, rounding out his cuts. Again, DBs key on that and
are able to disrupt footballs his way, which lowers his overall fantasy football ceiling. Also, with
Boldin out of the picture, Torrey Smith is sure to see more double-coverage rolled his way.
There is a lot he has to work through to take the proverbial third year WR leap. Just by roster
alterations and maturity, Torrey Smith’s receptions and yards will rise in 2013, but consistency
and the potential to rest among the NFL elite at season’s end is iffy at best.
▲▲LEONARD HANKERSON- REDSKINS, 6’2-209
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2011 WSH
2012 WSH
4 19
16 57
13
38
163
543
12.5 0
14.3 3
Washington head coach Mike Shanahan is known to drive FFB enthusiasts up a wall with is
merry-go-round use of running backs and quirky rotation of receivers. As maddening as Coach
Shanahan can be for virtual coaches, the Redskins’ field boss is an astute judge of talent and
commonly unveils a new “star” every season. There is a player on the Washington roster that has
all the potential of exploding via Coach Shanahan’s plans the way RB Alfred Morris did last
season, and the many breakout Broncos of Shanahan’s past. WR Leonard Hankerson has quietly
paid his dues under Coach Shanahan. Hankerson lost his rookie campaign due to a hip injury in
week 9. The record-setting Miami Hurricane WR made his 2011 NFL debut in Week 7and his
first start Week 9 versus the 49ers. He suffered a subluxation of his right hip and a torn labrum in
his second start against the Dolphins, and was sent to IR. After a slow start (missed all of offseason programs) in 2012, Hankerson started to gain confidence in his repaired hip; his coach
also started to dial him up. Two of Hankerson’s three TDs last season were over 50 yards. The
big wideout has excellent hands and gets them out to snap the ball out of the air. He displays
deceiving speed and actually timed at an outstanding 4.40x40 at the 2011 Combine. Among the
Redskins’ receiver, Hankerson possesses the best size/speed package. He compares favorably to
former Shanahan pupil Brandon Marshall, with better hands and a better off-field work ethic.
While at the U of Miami, Hankerson broke several of the records held by HOFer Michael Irvin
and NFL star Andre Johnson. A class act, look for Leonard Hankerson to not only earn the
opportunity for more targets, but be the pace-setter in the Washington passing game. Hankerson
has better hands and route integrity that Pierre Garcon, is bigger than any other DC wideout and
fast enough game speed to turn out big plays. Leonard Hankerson is the one pass catcher who
has a clear path and the talent to become this season’s top breakout third year wide receiver. Just
Sayin’!
▲GREG LITTLE- BROWNS, 6’3-220
2011 CLV 16 120
61
709
11.6 2
2012 CLV 16 92
53
647
12.2 4
All the rave and rambling out of Cleveland is the flash and dash of impressive WR Josh Gordon.
Gordon gets the attention with highlight-producing deep plays and spot-light attracting speed.
Running in the Browns’ shadows is another young, physically impressive wideout named Greg
Little. Little is an NFL oddity in that he basically is a huge (6’3-220) possession/slot receiver.
Coming out of University of North Carolina, Little was noted for excellent ran-after-catch
ability. That trait hasn’t come to the fore yet in Little’s two pro seasons. Make no mistake,
however, it is there. The third year WR has been saddled with QB play that has been literally all
over the place. Last year Little efforted to work through the offerings of then-rookie Brandon
Weeden, soft-armed Colt McCoy and walk-on Thaddeus Lewis. In his rookie campaign the
former Tarheel dealt with McCoy’s floaters and Seneca Wallace’s scrambled tosses. There also
was the conservative play calling of Pat Shurmur and Brad Childress. To boot, Greg Little
gained a rep for dropping passes, which came well-deserved. Last season, Little worked on his
concentration and cleaned up the butter-fingers. There still is the occasional slip up, but down
the stretch Little rarely let one go off his hands. He seems to have turned that corner with hard
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work and great practice habits. Entering year three, Greg Little has a new offensive scheme to
work in, installed by aggressive offensive minds Rod Chudzinski and Norv Turner. Both coaches
like big receivers and deeper patterns run by the wideouts. QB Weeden is in a playbook that
better fits his skills; Weeden possesses a strong arm and can get it out quickly. Now playing in a
more natural state, using his God-given talents, Little is able to run confidently in his routes and
allow the game to come to him. Pigeon-holed as a possession receiver with the perception of
being slow, the Cleveland junior receiver will have the chance to showcase his true game-speed
(4.5x40) and have more down-field plays called his way. We should see an early trend with Josh
Gordon sitting out the first two weeks of the season and Greg Little taking the WR1 duties. With
114 catches under his belt already, Greg Little is ready to become another third year success
story for fantasy football owners in 2013.
DENARIUS MOORE- RAIDERS, 6’-194
2011 OAK 13 76
33
618
18.7 5
2012 OAK 15 114
51
741
14.5 7
Oakland’s Denarius Moore has a prototypical NFL WR make up for third year prosperity. Size,
speed, early success, finding the end zone are part of his two year file, but there are a couple of
red flags FFB crazies need to check on. In his two seasons Moore has dealt with various nagging
injuries, capping his overall production. Another caution light is his support environment,
namely at quarterback. Moore was a favorite of Carson Palmer, who now takes snaps in Arizona.
In place for 2013 are the likes of wobbly-armed Matt Flynn, scatter-shot Terrelle Pryor, rookie
Tyler Wilson and Matt McGloin. Carson Palmer they are not! A third step on the brakes issue is
Moore’s health. Those nicks and nags have kept the talented receiver at times off the field or
running at less than full speed. Seems to be a thing with Raider receivers these days. Back in his
Tennessee Volunteer days, Moore was a frequent visitor in the trainer’s room. Camp will
determine the Oakland third year wideout’s potential for 2013. There is no denying Moore’s
ability, however. He is fleet at 4.4x40 speed and shows solid hands. He needs to clean up his
routes, and that should come with more time on the field and in practice. Former QB Palmer
often boasted publically about the Raider receiver’s abilities and while that may have been
Palmer’s way of talking up a teammate, Moore did flash big-play talent and production.
Consistency is key in 2013. Given the state of the Oakland QB stable this season, and Moore’s
iffy ability to stay healthy, a repeat of 2012 stats may be all we can expect for now. Some guys
need to learn how to be a “pro”’ such is the case with Denarius Moore.
▼JEREMY KERLEY- JETS, 5’10-189
2011 NYJ
14 47
29
314
10.8 1
2012 NYJ
16 95
56
827
14.8 2
If you are a big Jeremy Kerley fan and liked what you got from the Jets’ receiver last season,
stop right there; you’ve seen his best. File the memory and cherish it. Kerley is a fine possession
receiver who got far too much action in the deep game last season. The NYJ wideout is best
suited for slot duty, but the sad state of the Jets’ receiving corps forces the game but limited WR
into uncharacteristic patterns and routes. Kerley was involved in every New York pass play 40 or
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more yards last season. He is a quality receiver but is at his optimum best running short routes
and lining up in the slot. For 2013, the TCU product has to contend with more iffy QB play as
Mark Sanchez once again tries to become a pro and rookie Geno Smith figuring to see snaps.
Coach Ryan has made it clear that the Jets will revert to a “ground-n-pound” attack, which
means plenty of handoffs and less routes run . The combination of a run-heavy offense,
inaccurate quarterbacks and a muddled receiving group creates a theatre of mediocre opportunity
for Jeremy Kerely to eclipse his fine work of 2012.
JON BALDWIN- CHIEFS, 6’4-228
2011 KC
11 52
21
254
12.1 1
2012 KC
14 47
20
325
16.3 1
When in college big, fast and talented receivers can get away relying just on their God-given
physical tools alone. The quality of defensive backs a college wideout faces each week depends
on the program and the conference the player competes in. For most, lining up opposite a corner
of NFL-level skill might happen twice in a scholastic schedule. Kansas City’s Jon Baldwin was
one of those guys that got away with doing it “his way” in college, doing the minimum work
required to succeed and using his impressive size/speed to often dominate an over-matched
collegiate DB. Once he made his way to a pro field, he found out that he cannot rest on what he
already has. Slow to accept that he no longer was a BMOC, Baldwin found himself behind in
camps, at odds with his teammates (ask former KC RB Thomas Jones) and in the mutt-hutt of his
coaches. Baldwin’s lack of maturity seems to still be an issue as new head coach Andy Reid saw
fit to get on Baldwin in mini-camp for lollygagging his way back to the line in drills. The Chiefs’
third year wideout is huge at 6’4 and runs a solid 4.49x40; he has been clocked as fast as 4.37 in
the forty. His pass catching consistency can drive a coach or fanballer to line up a few shots at
the bar. Baldwin will make the spectacular catch over, through and behind defenders, then drop
the next routine target. Maturity and lack of good practice habits can be blamed, as the big
receiver body-catches far too often, and tries to turn up-field before looking the ball in. In 2013,
opportunity is abundant for the former Pitt Panther as the Chiefs’ receiving stable is littered with
drop-prone, injury-prone or undersized players. Veteran WR1 Dwayne Bowe is the only
established pass catcher in a Kansas City uniform. In the past under-achieving talents like
Baldwin have found their stride and made the leap to top tiered value in year three; Jon Baldwin
must learn to become a pro in order to take the next steps. So far, learning hasn’t been a strength.
▲VINCENT BROWN- CHARGERS, 5’11-187
2011 SD
13 40
19
329
17.3 2
2012 SD/IR San Diego felt confident enough in Vincent Brown’s potential to let Vincent Jackson to walk last
season. Brown went from possible WR1 potential in 2012 to all-pro spectator, sitting out the
season with a broken ankle suffered in the second pre-season tilt. The good news is that he is
back for the 2013 season, and broken ankles do not usually keep a player from performing the
way they did pre-injury. Brown is being counted on to help revived a slipping offense, one that
ranked in the top five in the NFL for points scored the last eight seasons before sliding to 20th
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last year. The wideout from San Diego State is a clean, crisp route runner and a confident hands
catcher. While not track- fast, Brown’s 4.57x40 speed is effective due to his savvy route running
and excellent vision in finding open seams. Prior to his 2012 pre-season injury, the Charger
receiver was fast becoming QB Philip Rivers’ go-to option. In 2013, San Diego is thin at WR
and receiving options with the exciting but very fragile Danario Alexander back, washouts
Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal trying to re-discover past fortunes and a fast-aging Antonio
Gates patrolling TE patterns. Much is riding on Vincent Brown in 2013. Repaired and ready to
pick up where he left off before his ankle woes, Brown has the tools and opportunity to climb
into low end WR2 value. He knows it is time to show what Brown can do for you.
DOUG BALDWIN- SEAHAWKS, 5’10-189
2011 SEA 16 85
51
788
15.5 4
2012 SEA 14 50
29
366
12.6 3
Over achiever! A compliment for sure, and a perfect way to describe Doug Baldwin. The third
year wideout from Stanford surprised many in 2011 by posting 51 catches and a 15.5 YPR.
Baldwin gave the Seahawks a deep threat that was sorely needed. However, the quick (4.48x40)
receiver got lost in the 2012 shuffle due to mouth, shoulder and ankle injuries. He gutted out 14
games but mostly was never 100 percent healthy. 2013 finds Baldwin in the middle of a crowded
WR group and a game plan that focuses on ball control and the ground game. Baldwin has to
make his way through Percy Harvin, Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, Chris Harper and others. His
best chance for significant action is in the return game, and even there may be a challenge with
Harvin on board. Doug Baldwin is a solid NFL contributor, but currently there are too many in
Seattle with similar skills and specialties.
▲AUSTIN PETTIS- RAMS, 6’3-209
2011 STL
12 48
27
256
9.5 0
2012 STL
13 48
30
261
8.7 4
6’3-220, 4.5 x 40… not bad measureables for a WR. Those are the digits of 2012- 2nd round pick
Brian Quick, a WR who competed against Division 2 talent and struggled to separate. Pettis,
though not a burner (neither is Quick for that matter) had impressive stat lines at Boise State,
versus top level DBs. Pettis has quietly taken on the challenge and threat to his job posed by the
drafting of Quick. So far in mini-camps and OTAs, Pettis is catching everything and shining as
the best WR in a Rams’ uniform. It is an uphill battle to take snaps away from a high draft pick
like Quick, but Pettis is no slouch, drafted in the third round himself. The good hands pass
catcher is no stranger to an explosive, high volume, up-tempo offense, as he performed at a high
level while at Boise State, opposite WR Titus Young who kept his explosiveness to the field
back then. The Rams’ third year wideout runs a solid 4.5x40, and gets his hands extended away
from his body to bring the ball down. A sound route runner, Pettis is now comfortable with QB
Sam Bradford and now it is showing on the field in practices. Bradford is surely taking notice of
Pettis’ hard work and dedication. The St. Louis WR pen is suddenly filled with depth and
various talents. Coach Fisher is allowing the best players to earn their chances, and out of
nowhere comes Austin Pettis. Part of the practice of targeting third year WRs as breakout
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candidates is due to the complexity of learning to read pro coverages, make appropriate
adjustments and gain the trust of both coach and QB. The light just seems to come on for most in
year three; Austin Pettis appears to have seen the light and it is shining brightly for him
suddenly.
GREG SALAS- EAGLES, 6’1-210
Team
G Target Rec Yard Avg TD
2011 STL
6 38
27
264
9.8 0
2012 NE/PHL 0 0
0
0
0
0
Greg Salas has had an interesting journey around the NFL already in just two years. He has
donned three different jerseys in two seasons, beginning with the Rams, then the Patriots and
ending with the Eagles. He has been a wanted man by established coaches like Bill Belichick
(who traded for Salas) and Andy Reid (who snatched him away from Belichick when Wild Bill
tried to sneak him through waivers). The former Warrior is a record setting receiver at Hawaii.
Much of the 6’1” receiver’s work came on catch and run action, displaying fine burst and an
ability to break tackles. Salas is a hands-catcher, which is usually the case for highly productive
receivers. He is not a burner, but shows good football speed and usually reliable hands. Now
with the Eagles Salas is behind two of the league’s better young veteran wideouts in DeSean
Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Both have proven they can be playmakers and they “fit” Coach
Chip Kelly’s motion offense. However, both have struggled with injuries and neither of these
fleet pass catchers have been keen about working inside the hash-marks. Enter Greg Salas, who
set records running inside routes and turning shorter passes into record-setting yardage. The fastpaced tempo Coach Kelly employs, with the ball being snapped every 20-24 seconds, means
there will be more than two wide receivers in Philadelphia running routes. Coach Kelly demands
a high volume of plays and there are plenty of snaps and footballs to go around if that offense is
in sync. It was just over two years ago that Greg Salas was bringing down 100-plus footballs a
season in an up-tempo, high-volume offense. It is a long shot, but… Mr. Salas, Coach Kelly
wants to see you.
TANDON DOSS- RAVENS, 6’2-201
2011 BALT 6 2
0
0
0
2012 BALT 14 17
7
123
17.6 1
Anquan Boldin is now a 49er. Torrey Smith is an up-n-coming star potentially, but seems to be
mostly a vertical/outside threat. Jacoby Jones danced his way to prominence on the way to
winning the Super Bowl, but he still has buttery hands and is not a savvy route runner. Someone
needs to pick up Boldin’s targets and patterns, and present some kind of physical inside
presence. Tandon Doss may be the guy. Doss goes 6’2 and a tick over 200. At issue with Doss is
health, and if a player is going to be running across the middle in the NFL, hits and thuds are
sure to follow. Doss has experienced far too many dings in his early career. He had some injury
issues as a collegiate athlete also. The Raven receiver shows good hands and is an adept pattern
runner, but his ability to break tackles and gain yards after catch are wanting. He lacks that getaway 2nd gear and is tackled often at reception. QB Joe Flacco is familiar with Doss after
working in practice together for the past two seasons. However, a key to breaking out is being
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available week-in, week-out. Doss needs to learn how to stay on the field and be counted on.
Third year may be the charm for many wideouts, but Tandon Doss has many hurdles to clear and
clear them while staying healthy.
JOE MORGAN- SAINTS, 6’1-184
2011 NO
0 0
0
0
0
0
2012 NO
11 21
10
379
37.9 3
There has to be something in a name. The other Joe Morgan of note is HOF 2nd baseman for the
Cincinnati Reds who based his game on being a playmaker with speed. The football version of
Joe Morgan in New Orleans is exactly that, a playmaker built on speed. Morgan is a raw (hate
that term!).. Morgan is an inexperienced receiver who can flat out burn and blow the top off of
defenses. Morgan’s “slow” time in the forty is 4.49; he is a firm 4.37 dasher who has hit 4.28
according to scouts. A transfer from Illinois to small school Walsh, Morgan may have some
character issues and that popped up in May with a DUI arrest. On the field, the very fleet
receiver is a one-trick pony, running 7, 9 and 8 routes only. He uses his body to cradle the
football in and that is a sign of lack of confidence in one’s hands. Morgan is obviously a
situational option, a work-in-progress and though this is his third pro season, he missed all of
2011 with a knee injury. He needs to gain a big measure of maturity and absorb all the coaching
he can to refine his “raw” game.
ANDREW HAWKINS- BENGALS, 5’7-175
2011 CIN
13 34
23
263
11.4 0
2012 CIN
14 80
51
533
10.5 4
The diminutive slot receiver in Cincy burst onto the fantasy scene last season early on. However,
as the season progressed, Hawkins did not. The blazing fast slotman (4.34x40) saw consistent
snaps all season, hauled in 51 passes but failed to make that speed a weapon, averaging just 10.5
YPR. Going into year three, Cincinnati has bolstered the receiving corps; it is young and deep. In
place of Hawkins, the Bengal coaches have been shoe-horning large wideout Mohamed Sanu in
the slot. The read on that move is Hawkins’ 5’7” target is hard for QB Andy Dalton to find
inside where most slot receivers work. Lacking size and not being able to capitalize on the great
speed he possesses, Andrew Hawkins may find himself running patterns in another uniform
before the season begins. Even then, he’ll need to acclimate into a new system and terminology.
The firefly receiver is exciting with the ball in his hands, but his chances are dissipating in 2013.
ARMON BINNS- DOLPHINS, 6’3-209
Team
G Target Rec Yard Avg TD
2011 CIN
0 0
0
0
0
0
2012 CIN/MIA 10 40
24
277
1
The undrafted big wideout from Cincinnati found himself in a numbers crunch as a Bengal and
eventually ended up in a Miami uniform. The Dolphins put Binns to work and he put up some
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usable game tape. Binns is a tall receiver with decent speed (4.5x40). He is best running inside
the hash marks and has displays good hands. While he runs well enough, Binns doesn’t possess
special running skills to create after the catch. In his third NFL season Binns again lands in a
crowded group as Miami loaded up on receivers in the off-season. In his last two seasons at
University of Cincy, Binns combined for 20 TD catches. His size creates red zone attraction and
he is adept at getting open inside the ten yard line. Being undrafted the Miami WR needs to
shine and work hard to make the roster in 2013.
ALDRICK ROBINSON- REDSKINS, 5’10-184
2011 WSH 0 0
0
0
0
0
2012 WSH 15 19
11
237
21.5 3
Aldrick Robinson is fast… 4.37x40 fast! Robinson caught a school-record 14 TDs and ripped
down 1,301 receiving yards in 2010, second-most ever in a season at SMU. Oddly, the smaller
Robinson carved out a role for himself at SMU in the redzone, turning close to 35% of his SMU
red zone targets into scores. Obviously at 5’10 and possessing 4.3 speed, the redzone is not his
playground, but it does exhibit his ability to play in closed quarters effectively. Robinson is
compared to Eagles flashy DeSean Jackson in stature and speed. However, Robinson plays a
better all-around game, is a fine hands catcher and surprisingly can high-point the football with
his strong 40” vertical. As of now the Redskins third year receiver uses mostly the left side of the
field and doesn’t seem comfortable flipping to the right. He’ll need to expand that limitation, if it
truly is one. Playing with the rocket-armed Robert Griffin III, Robinson can become a true big
play weapon if opportunity presents itself. Keep in mind that Pierre Garcon runs on fragile feet,
and Santana Moss, while aging gracefully, is aging. Aldrick Robinson is a name to keep on
speed-dial in 2013. One slip of the foot or a loss of a step and the fleet-footed SMU product is
seeing significant snaps in an imaginative offense.
OTHER 3RD YEAR WIDE RECEIVERS (2013)
RICARDO LOCKETTE (49ers)-Kaepernick roommate with a high opinion of himself. Deep
threat.
CLYDE GATES (Jets)- vertical route runner with great speed but little versatility.
LESTAR JEAN (Texans)- small school receiver with speed and size.
KEALOHA PILARES (Panthers)- WR in a RB body. Prolific at U of Hawaii opposite Greg
Salas.
RYAN WHALEN (Bengals)- 6’2 possession receiver.
DWAYNE HARRIS (Cowboys)- has a shot as a third WR; 6th rounder in 2011.
KRIS DURHAM (Lions)- 6’6 WR with injury issues thus far; cut by Seahawks last year.
STEPHEN BURTON (Vikings)- spread offense college background; needs to assimilate into pro
game.
SEYI AJIROTUTU – poor hands but decent blocker.
DANE SANZENBACHER – possession receiver with some limited success as a Bear.
ANDRE HOLMES (Raiders)- four teams in last four years; 6’4 but limited skills.
JERREL JERNIGAN (Giants)- small speedster having trouble playing as a pro.
LAQUAN WILLIAMS (Ravens)- fast, undrafted WR with good pre-season tape.
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KEVIN CONE (Falcons)- played college ball at Georgia Tech; good blocker.
TRINDON HOLLIDAY (Broncos)- KR with explosive speed but no chance of seeing offensive
snaps.
DEMARCO SAMPSON (Bills)- 6’2 WR spent time in this off-season with Chip Kelly (Philly).
CHASTIN WEST – former Packer WR and a special teams ace.
KRIS ADAMS – solid run blocking receiver.
KAMAR AIKEN – some big play ability and at times spectacular body control.
JEFF MAEHL – big possession receiver from Chip Kelly Ducks offense.
KERRY MEIER – solid athlete with limited speed; has played RB and QB in college.
JAMAR NEWSOME – cup of coffee with the Chiefs in 2012.
~ end ~
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The Tricks of the Trade in 2013
June 28, 2013
by: Chris Rito
“Draft Day” is often the highlight of the fantasy football season. While the draft atmosphere is
the best, the place where champions often are made is in hammering out a big deal either in the
"offseason" (I hate that word) or during the season. After many years of playing this game, I
have accumulated a series of tips – a “philosophy of trading,” if you will – that I think can help
you initiate the trade, wade through the details and broker a productive deal... possibly taking
you from the realm of the “also-ran” to the level of “champion.” And if nothing else, I think that
following this seemingly simple list of suggestions can make your fantasy football season a lot
more fun. And isn't that the point? As I said, many of these suggestions seem simple, but it is
often the attention to the simple things that can make the biggest difference.
Never pass up a chance to talk trade
This is NOT to be confused with The Bucket List quote about "As you get older...never
pass up a bathroom, never waste a hard-on, and never trust a fart." LOL If someone comes to you
with a trade offer, they are obviously interested in improving their team or in something you
have. But which is it? The savvy owner will see through a trade request to get to the real
burning question in the heart of the other owner. If someone comes to you and says “I’ll trade
you Ronnie Hillman and Josh Freeman for Kenny Britt” does that mean that that guy is
questioning Schiano's love for his incumbent QB or merely that he has great faith in Montee
Ball? That they believe in the "contract year" phenomenon or the revival of the Titans' offense?
That they simply are desperate for help at WR? That they like tall receivers with poor off-thefield records and a tendency towards season-ending injuries?
I often also find it advantageous to approach trading partners in general terms, letting
them know what you are looking for without letting them know who you are looking for. “I am
looking to upgrade at RB#2” or “I’d like to move some WR depth for a better backup QB” You
can see what they want without making any concrete offers, and often can end up getting a better
player than you might otherwise get. Sometimes asking for a particular player can scare off a
potential trader, as they feel that you know something they don’t. Basically, human nature tells
us that “if someone else wants something…then its value just went up in my mind.”
Know your rules
This is the key to good drafting as well as to making good trades. By “knowing your
rules,” what I mean is that one can best take advantage of your situation by shrewdly analyzing
the relative merits of any particular player within the confines of your league’s specific scoring
rules. Knowing which players have value in your scoring system which exceeds their perceived
or their NFL value can help you get a desirable player while giving up less than he is really
worth. For example, in leagues where you MUST start four WRs, the value of the top WRs is
elevated somewhat. Likewise, the trade value (and his value to you) of that third All-Pro RB on
your roster is very different if your league starts one RB weekly versus his value if you are
allowed to start three RBs each week. Does your league rewards pass catching RBs, either with 1
point per reception, or double points for receiving yards or scores? Then NFL backups like
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Danny Woodhead may be much more valuable in your FFL than anyone in your league realizes.
Likewise, unheralded WRs like the 2012 no -name guys like Brandon Myers and Brian Hartline
each caught about 75 passes -- and I know people that were able to obtain each of them last year
for far less than they were really worth!
On the other end of the spectrum you need to know which players are overvalued based
on their actual skill set, and realize that they are prime trade bait to send away in order to get a
player you truly can use. Does your league penalize for interceptions? Then based on recent
history, you will want to trade away Philip Rivers. Even though most people will fall in love
with his yardage and TDs, he averaged 17 INTs for the last three seasons and is ranked much
higher in scoring systems that do not penalize for INTs. Perhaps you can trade him for a guy that
puts up similar fantasy numbers, but is not believed to be as good; Joe Flacco and Russell
Wilson are both perceived as lesser fantasy QBs, but each outpointed Rivers in such systems in
2012 primarily because of the interceptions. Now 2012 was a little bit of a fluke as all the top
passers also threw an uncharacteristic number of picks last year (Brees and Romo led the league,
Stafford and Eli struggled with high totals)...but look for reasons why this happened and
ascertain the likely repeat offenders, and drop them a few slots on your list.
Make an accurate assessment of your own strengths and weaknesses
It is often quite easy to see where your own team could stand a little improvement.
However, the difficulty that most owners have is in realistically assessing one’s own strengths;
most every owner vastly overrates their own team’s assets, often never recovering from the love
affair which started at the draft back in August ! But you must be brutally honest with yourself
about what you really have on your roster, because any potential trading partner will be equally
brutal when your roster gets evaluated for trading fodder. One has to deal from one's own
strength, as well as from your trade partner’s perceived strength of the guys on your roster.
Don't ever assume that you have to get equal "draft day" value for a player, that has been
sucking heavily and weighing down your lineup for the last 7 weeks. If you see that a guy has
been underperforming his draft position - believe me, your potential trade partners know this
too! You cannot expect to get back value on his 2012 or 2011 performance, or to get rewarded
for making a draft pick that looks like a bust in week 7. Understand this fact, folks – if there is
no reason to currently value a particular player on your roster, then you will not be able to get
diddly-poo (apologies to Jim Mora, Sr.) for him in a trade. It’s really that simple. Don’t get too
enamored with a player’s on your roster and his value for any reason except his actual fantasy
performance in 2013.
And like the first trade tip above, this rule also has a flip side: if there is an owner in your
league that is exhibiting this same sort of unnatural fondness for a particular player on your team
and is overvaluing him from a fantasy perspective …. then you have a potential trading partner
that may give you a little more for your man than another team would. We are all guilty now and
again of hanging onto a favorite player for one year too long – I embarrassingly drafted Michael
Turner way too high and too often in 2012, for example – but to be a good trader, you must
know when to walk away from those sorts of guys when they simply aren’t doing it anymore.
This rule also reflects the old adage of “know thy enemy,” because knowing which owners in
your league have a weird and unnatural fondness for FORMER Minnesota Vikings, former
Wisconsin Badgers, or guys named Johnson (yes, we have one of each of those in my local
league)...well that sort of knowledge can only help you in looking to make a beneficial deal
down the road
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"To stud" or "not to stud"?
Many fantasy owners work under the premise that having the best single player will bring
the title, so they have to always get the best player in a trade. Think about this...does the team
with the #1 draft pick always win your league? It has rarely happened in my redraft leagues.
Most people do not believe me but...you can make a great trade and improve your team’s
chances of winning it all by actually trading away a super stud! There are two complementary
situations that occur in most every league, and these situations allow a chance for a really big
trade that helps both teams. Sometimes there is a team with a couple of A-1 fantasy studs, but
that team is only one rogue patellar tendon away from a catastrophic season due to tragically
poor roster depth. On the other side, there are teams that often have a great depth of quality
fantasy starters, but that lack a true superstar or “hammer” in their lineup. These teams can each
do well by working together, and it is really helpful to know which of these two teams you are.
Those teams with just a few superstars and a generally weak roster can often better serve
themselves by trading away one of their “1st-rounder” types for multiple solid players that they
can still start every week. It is obviously possible to make a productive trade by snaring a stud
scorer, but it is also possible to succeed by actually giving one away; this latter possibility is one
that most FFLers would never consider, but they should. I have won using both philosophies, so
it is important to never close the book on a potential package trade just because they ask for your
best single player in return. I will cover this concept more in my two "Golden Rules" later.
Win-win scenarios
It is very important to propose trades that fall under the standard corporate lingo of a
“win-win situation.” Proposing a lopsided deal does absolutely nothing to help your team, and
can only cost you any credibility with that trade partner. Of course, many owners will bluster
about how stupid your trade offer is; when this has happened to me, I always offer my
explanation as to why I think it is a fair offer. If that potential trading partner wants to refute my
logic or valuation of the offer, this serves two valuable purposes. First, it will tell you what his
perceived value is of the guys you have. secondly, it will also help you better assess what he is
looking for in a trade from you.
Of course, with our flawed forecasting skills, sometimes the deal ends up being horribly
lopsided due to unforeseen changes of circumstances like injury or benching. This should never
get you down, as those are the risks we all take even in drafting players. But all deals as they get
proposed should actually look on the surface to help both sides; as crazy and obvious as that
seems, it is often overlooked that one has to be willing to give up something of value in order to
get something of value. Now that doesn’t mean you weaken your team in one area to strengthen
it in another, but merely that you have to give some value to the other team, based on their needs
and your strengths. I am also not suggesting that you rip off your opponents, nor heedlessly
diminish your own team's potential for success; I am suggesting that you find what THEY value
and give it to them - especially if is something you have, but that you don't value as highly as
they do.
"Offseason" trading
For those of you in keeper or dynasty leagues, this is often when the most trade chat takes
place. It is also the time where the biggest risks are taken and where the biggest gains can be
made, so this is fertile ground for some valuable trade possibilities if you are willing to take
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those risks. The reason there are so many risks is that players can change teams, and situations
can be altered greatly if the season is yet 3 months or more from starting. Rookies have yet to be
truly evaluated in the NFL setting, new coaching systems have yet to take root, everything is in
flux.
Of course, all of the same rules I mentioned previously are just as important now as in
any other trade scenario. The most important one is to first understand your rules and use them to
your advantage. For example, I have been in a partial keeper league for almost 20 years, and one
interesting tidbit is that you can keep up to three players every year, but a player can only be
kept three times at the most. So...every year, there are some teams that have an absolute stud that
is very keeper-worthy, but that they will have to release FOR NOTHING IN RETURN. So, this
is a trading partner that may be willing to take a lesser player in return straight-up for their
unable-to-be-retained superstar, just to make sure they can get something. This last season, I was
able to trade for Adrian Peterson and Brandon Marshall in just this way; my trade partner would
be unable to keep Peterson at the end of the season, and had few other keeper-quality players on
his roster. In this case, we made a deal which centered around me giving up lesser stud players
that I would be unable to keep after 2012 anyway (McFadden, Welker and Roddy White). Of
course, Manning McFadden was little help to him in 2012, but he set himself up nice to have
those three guys as his keepers in 2012 . Me? I got a really nice stud for the rest of 2012 and for
the next three seasons. I won that deal, but his resulting depth allowed him to make other trades
later that made us both winners.
Secondly, clearly knowing your trading partners is even more critical now. Remember
that (gasp!) not everyone may be as into their fantasy roster after the Super Bowl as you are, so
some trading partners may be unable or unwilling to really participate in a good dialogue. Not
only do you have to know which owners are willing to trade, you again need to know what their
tendencies are. Do they tend to hoard young players with breakout potential over established
veterans in the second half of their careers? Offer them a young guy that is a cut below their
aging (but still VERY effective) stud and they might take the bait. Or...do the opposite and get
your roster a bit younger while helping them with the "right now" on their team. Using this
philosophy in my 16-team dynasty league just this week, I was able to trade Maurice Jones-Drew
for Montee Ball and a 2nd round pick in next year's draft (those picks are very valuable in this
league). I won at both positions because the guy was valuing RIGHT NOW production over
youth and explosive potential....and my right now was not significantly impacted because I was
already stacked at RB. Some guys in dynasty leagues insist on getting their primary RB's
backup; this may be another opportunity to get a startable WR at the price of an NFL backup RB
that you likely may never use. This is of course a win for the other guy as well, since he also gets
what he wants.
Although I described the other side in that dynasty league trade, I do believe it is very
important to WIN NOW!! Often an owner (especially in a dynasty league) will refuse to make a
trade because they will be giving up a younger player in return for a guy that may only have a
year or two left in the NFL. I have seen fantasy teams that were only one player away from
winning it all…and they fell just short because the owner was too afraid to sacrifice the potential
for future performance for the assurance of current performance. I have always been a firm
believer in making the deal (or the draft selection) for THIS year, and then worrying about next
year… when next year gets here. In my 16-team dynasty league, there was a team that was close
to the title in 2011, and he traded a king's ransom (including his next two first round picks, which
are like gold) for Tom Brady. As you can imagine by replacing his weak link (Jason Campbell)
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with Tom Terrific, he cruised to the title. Do you think he is upset about his team's future,
knowing he captured his coveted first title after many years in this league? Take the title when
you can get it, because once you have it they can’t take it away from you!
The Golden Rules
Most importantly, though, there are two very key questions that I always ask myself before
agreeing to a trade, or before making a trade offer. They are my “Two Great Commandments” of
trading, the ones from which all other rules flow and to which all other rules points. Ask yourself
these questions, and this will make your answer to any trade inquiry an easy one. Answer
positively to both questions and you should make the deal, period. Answer negatively and you
should decline or make a counter offer. The questions can only be answered accurately if you
have done your homework and have thought about a trade using the rules I defined above.
Remember I am a strong believer in the "Win now!" philosophy, so this applies to my keeper and
dynasty league teams also.
1. What will these players do the rest of this season?
2. Does this move make my team or lineup better?
Let’s look at that first question. More often than not, the inexperienced fantasy owner will look
at the players in a trade and assume that past performance guarantees future performance. To
continue the stock market analogy, the key to making a good deal is to “buy low and sell high.”
I don’t give a rat’s behind about what your players did before they were on my team. The only
concern I should have in getting a player from you is “What will he do after he is on my team?” I
also don’t care what my current players will do once they are on your team – that is your
problem at that point. If I can get a player that is underperforming now as compared to what I
believe he will do in future weeks, I will get him for a cheaper price. I don’t care if a guy is
leading the league in receiving if I don’t have any confidence that he will continue to do so.
Whatever the scenario, there are times when the player’s immediate past does not match up with
the expectations of the rest of the season.
There is obviously some speculation and risk involved here, but those that make trades
that “turn out good” often are just better at predicting which players will “kick it up a notch” and
which ones will drop off. Make the predictions as best you can and ask yourself, “Which player
will do more after this trade?” and if the answer is “Player A” and not “Player B” that is
currently on your roster... then you should make the trade regardless of what the season stats say
at that time. As stated earlier, no one is perfect in seeing the future, but you must make your
prediction (and not necessarily the past) to be the focus of your analysis,.
The second great question, and the most important in my mind is “Does this trade make
my team better?” Too many times I have heard owners reject my trade proposal because “this
deal makes your team better.” That would be the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Why would I
make the deal if I did not think that it would make my team better? It is absolutely critical to
remember one of the cardinal differences between fantasy football and NFL football: one can do
absolutely nothing to affect the performance of your opponent each week. The key to success in
FFL is therefore to make your own team better. Who cares if your trade makes the other team
better, if it helps your own team to be better? That is all that you can control, so go out and
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control it! If I can sit back after a trade and be more satisfied with my roster and/or my lineup, no
matter what it does to another team – I will do it.
Here is the classic example of this philosophy, although it is a bit older now. In a PPR
league in 2008 I was in dire need of a TE, and had some (almost ludicrous) depth at RB and WR.
There was another team that had two top-notch TEs (could only start one) and needed some help
with his lesser starters. I made a deal that sent Thomas Jones (who was my #4 RB while having a
1300 yard, 13 TD season) and rookie star Eddie Royal (my #5 WR at 91-980-5) to another team
in return for Jason Witten (his backup to Tony Gonzalez) and Michael Jenkins (his beyondcrappy WR#3). Did I give up more scoring and talent than I gained? Of course. Did the other
team gain two starters to my one? Also a “yes”. In the absence of other information, would you
have traded EITHER of those two guys straight-up for Jason Witten, and certainly not BOTH of
them? Heck no! The trade was not made in a vacuum, though, but within the confines of our
rosters. And my lineup was now immensely better for having made the deal. I gave up two very
solid players that would never have started for me, and got a Pro-Bowl player that I started every
week the rest of the way. The other team got two starters for them, and gave up a backup they
had only used once (Gonzo’s bye week) and a weak WR that was no longer a starter with Royal
on their roster. Win-win situation. Sweet justice - we each won our division titles, although we
did not get to meet in the playoffs. Huge trade for me -- I get over the top and win the league.
Game, set, match.
Remember to be open-minded and fair-minded; to seek the mutually beneficial arrangement
where each side wins; to peer into the future as best you can and decipher the trends and likely
outcomes of the players involved; and then most of all, remember to ask yourself if the trade will
make your own team better. Now you are armed with this trader’s full arsenal…so go out and
make some deals!
~ end ~
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Busting the Wedge – Points via Return Specialists
July 26, 2013
by: John Cooney
Special teams make up one-third of a football team’s defined units. The athletes that perform in
these kamikaze groups are a wild and reckless breed, abandoning self-preservation for the glory
of delivering the big hit or turning the tables of a contest with an exciting improvised return of a
kickoff or punt for a score. Each season quite a few fantasy football games are decided by the
results of special teams play. Today, fantasy leagues have taken to including the statistical
outcomes of special teams action, covering not just the full units but the individual bomb-squad
denizens themselves. Creative fantasy football commissioners explore new ways to bring added
value to players, boosting the potential total points scored by their fantasy franchises each week
and adding another avenue of excitement to fantasy lineups. Leagues that have expanded their
scoring menus to include kick and punt return specialists are becoming more common.
Individual special teams inclusion in fantasy football takes some very ordinary players of little
fantasy football relevance and props up their value. Creative fanballers will find ways of taking
advantage of these players who not only see action on special teams returns, but also on the
offensive and defensive units. The glow of excitement has dimmed a bit on kickoffs since the
NFL moved the spot of the ball up as power-legged kickers boom footballs deep into the end
zone without a return. Even-so, kickoff returns still outweigh punt returns in sheer volume of
chances and return yards. Punt returns are dependent on a good defense getting consistent stops.
However, while there are far more kickoff return opportunities than punt return chances, more
TDs are scored on punt returns than kickoffs; there were 17 punt returns for scores against 13
kickoffs in 2012. As for the individual players doing the returning, often coaches are reluctant to
use their starting players as returners given the high-injury risk. But there are in-game moments
or unique team situations that call for the speedy talents of the top line stars to get in there, be the
hero and bring one back. When those opportunities exist, forward-thinking fantasy owners can
be positioned to benefit from the timely punt return or a game-changing kickoff return.
Fantasy owners that participate in leagues that recognize individual kick/punt returners look for
those wild mavericks of special teams that can bring added value each week. In these leagues
there are players that enhance their existing value as offensive players or as IDPs, both in the
fantasy drafts, auctions and as weekly contributors, thanks to their efforts on special-teams.
Players that are usually starters in weekly lineup that also take snaps on special teams are dubbed
here as “Double-Dippers.” These double-dipping players are not only picking up points on
returns, they are scoring on offense and/or defense. A second group contains players whose
“specialize” on kick and/or punt returns, with marginal (if any) contributions on offense or as an
IDP. At this time of the pre-season, with training camps just getting underway, there are a few
unsettled return competitions that have to be considered, with the training camp winner possibly
paying off big ‘returns’.
The past few years the fantasy football world has experienced the brilliant return efforts of
Chicago’s Devin Hester, who inspired many fantasy football commissioners to take a long look
at their league rules and institute changes to include individual kick and punt returns. Bursting
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onto the NFL scene in 2011 was Arizona cornerback Patrick Peterson. If your IDP league allows
returns yards and results to be counted, then Peterson return heroics have helped win games, for
you and his Cardinals. Hester and Peterson are just two examples of players who have elevated
their fantasy lineup worth by contributing in the return game. If your fantasy league has opened
up to the excitement of using kick and punt returners in some way in the league’s scoring menu,
then read on; Double-Dippers and Return Specialists can turn and L into a W in one boot of the
football.
Glossary/Key:
Handle- any return touch/opportunity such as punt, kick off or fair catch
HDL- handle
RET YDS- total return yards
YPH- Yards Per Handle; average yards gained per handle
KR- kick return
PR- punt return
RB- running back
WR- wide receiver
One new research statistic I’ve developed for tracking return specialist is called YARDS PER
HANDLE (YPH). A “handle” is any reception of the football by a player in either kick or punt
action, such as returning a kickoff, a punt or calling a fair catch; touchbacks on kickoffs are not
included. YPH is derived at by dividing total return yards by the total number of handles. The
YPH I feel creates a better indicator of which return specialist will potentially put real fantasy
points on the board for owners. Making a personnel decision in the return positions based solely
on total yards or yards per RETURN is coming to an incomplete conclusion. For example,
Miami’s Marcus Thigpen “handled” 70 return chances in 2012; 38 kickoff returns, 26 punt
returns and 6 fair catches. Minnesota’s Marcus Sherels, who many football pundits rate highly as
a returner, handled 75; 16 kickoffs, 32 punts and 27 fair catches. Both were big-time participants
in the kick and punt return units. With his 70 handles Thigpen created 1356 return yards for a
YPH of 19.37. Sherels was far less of a fantasy point producer with his 75 handles, averaging a
YPH of 9.45. Dragging Sherels potential for fantasy points in the return game is his conservative
handling of punts, calling for 27 fair catches. Thigpen waved the hand to call off the dogs just 6
times last season. Which player do you want handling your fantasy football special teams action;
the one getting almost 20 yards every time he touches the football or the guy handling the same
volume of work but netting under 10 yard a handle? YPH is just one more added piece of info to
help fantasy footballers mastermind every potential point producing advantage. A YPH chart of
last season’s results will follow the capsule of return specialists.
Marcus Thigpen, Dolphins (KR-PR-RB) … Return Specialist
Running Back Marcus Thigpen produced over and above his expectations for his Miami coaches
in 2012. Thigpen ranked 5th overall in total return yards last season, and turned in a score on both
the kick and punt teams. The Dolphin’s slightly-built reserve RB (5’9-190) brings breakaway
speed to the field, clocking as fast as 4.29 in the 40 yard dash back in 2009. His 2012 return
work is clear for all to see, but it should be noted that Thigpen, though a halfback, saw 28 snaps
as a slot receiver when Devone Bess left a December game due to injury. Thigpen is a former
track star for Indiana University and now potentially the NFL’s top return specialist. The Miami
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special teams star owned a stellar 19.37 yards per handle last season, tops of all returners that
brought back both punts and kickoffs.
Darius Reynaud, Titans (KR-PR-RB) … Return Specialist
Now listed as a pro RB, Darius Reynaud lined up as a split end and slot receiver while at West
Virginia. A solid 4.4x40 man, Reynaud has the tendency to make poor fielding decisions in his
efforts to make plays. However there is no mistaking his ability to turn a contest around in an
instant as the Titan ace brought back 1 kick off for a score along with 2 punts for TDs. Reynaud
led the NFL in total return yards, netting 1650 in 2012. He is a willing punt returner with 17 fair
catch calls in his 48 handles, and averaged an impressive 16.34 yards per handle (YPH) last
season (5th best among player regularly working punt AND kickoffs). The Tennessee return
specialist measures 5’9 but is RB-built, weighing in just over 200 pounds. He’ll likely see
competition from Marc Mariani, who owned the job prior to his early season leg injury. Reynaud
could be relegated to kick off duty only given his questionable judgment in the punt game.
Darren Sproles, Saints (KR-PR-RB)… Double Dipper
Sproles ripped up the NFL in All-Purpose yards in 2011, totaling 2696. 2012 saw a precipitous
drop to the tune of 1577 all-purpose production and a disappointing 666 in total returns. His punt
return average took a hit from over 10 yards per return in ’11 to 7.96 last season. Sproles didn’t
bring a kick or punt into the endzone in 2012. Still, the mighty mite is a dual-duty threat,
especially in PPR leagues. With Coach Payton vowing to get the run-game going, Sproles may
see a bigger role again in kick and punt returns. Darren Sproles is a do-it-all player in any
format.
Jacoby Jones, Ravens (KR-PR-WR)… Double Dipper
Jacoby Jones was truly dancing with the stars last season. Jones is a size (6’3-215)-speed
(4.5x40) package that exploded as a dual-threat kick/punt returner in 2012, taking 2 kickoffs
back for scores (including a record 108 yarder) and added a punt return for a TD. His playoff
heroics, along with the vacancy left by departed Anquan Boldin, have helped to propel his
chances of being Baltimore’s WR2 and top returner. Jones averaged 30.7 yards per kickoff in
2012. With all of his sudden fame stemming from his post-season highlights and his star-studded
foray of hanging out with celebrities through the off-season it might be a good idea to keep tabs
on Jones’ on-field efforts early on. A drop in focus and gridiron dedication could sneak up on the
Raven slippery-handed wideout.
Leodis McKelvin, Bills (KR-PR-CB)… Double Dipper
The Bills’ best returner averaged 28.3 per kickoff last season but was even more dynamic on
punt duty. McKelvin aced 2 punt returns for TDs, led the NFL in yards per punt return (18.7),
and was fourth in kickoff returns (28.3)… OUTSTANDING! In YPH, McKelvin ranked 3rd in
the group of returners that lined up for punt and kicks. The Buffalo 2008 1st round pick was
selected as the return specialist on the 2012 USA Football All-Fundamentals Team, which
honors 26 NFL players who exhibit exemplary football techniques for youth players to emulate.
He doubles as the starting left corner for Buffalo and has world-class speed with 4.3x40 time.
Trindon Holliday, Broncos (KR-PR-WR) … Return Specialist
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PURE SPEED! Trindon Holliday runs a true 4.21-forty yard dash and is every bit as fast with the
football in his hands. He’s not big, measuring just 5’5” and lucky to tip the scales above 165, but
the Broncos bold returner is fearless. Holliday called for just 10 fair catches in his 57 punt return
chances and returned one for a score as well as a kickoff for paydirt, too. The Denver burner is
low in the WR depth chart, but a threat to score with the football in his hands. He has been timed
as fast as 4.18 in the forty by some scouts.
Keshawn Martin, Texans (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Houston coaches must like what they have in Keshawn Martin as a returner, allowing dynamic
speedster Trindon Holliday AND dancing Jacoby Jones to walk and ply their wares elsewhere
last season. Martin was steady as a rookie kick off man last season, and even better in the punt
game; Martin ranked 4th in punt return average in the AFC (12.1). He has a chance to gain value
as he competes for the third receiver spot as well as continue his work in the return units. Martin
has good hands and top-end speed (solid 4.4x40 times). This is a return ace to scout closely as
the Texans’ special teams units are always solid and well-coached.
RB Leon Washington, Patriots (PR-RB) … Return Specialist
Leon Washington has made a nice comeback from a devastating leg injury a couple of seasons
ago. Last season, Washington was 7th overall in total return yards (1140) and returned a kickoff
for a score. He did his damage for the Seahawks last season and this year plies his steady skills
for Coach Belichick in New England. Washington’s consistency and reliability is something
fantasy football owners can count on. His offensive snaps virtually disappeared in 2012, and his
prospects for an expanded role in the Patriot playbook is not loaded with optimism. But as a
dual-threat returner, Leon Washington delivers and will have plenty of work in New England.
Josh Cribbs, Raiders (KR-WR) … Return Specialist
Josh Cribbs isn’t figuring into his teams’ offensive game plans these days. Part of the reason is
his injury history grows, and he is best as a returner more exclusively. He is still very good
bringing back kicks on both units however. The now Oakland Raider is gutsy on punt duty,
calling just 8 fair catches in his 46 punt handles. He gives fantasy owners a chance for yards and
the occasional big play most weeks on special teams. Without much fanfare in 2012, Cribbs
amassed the 2nd most return yards in the league (1635), producing impressive kick off (27.4)
return and punt (12.03) return averages. In YPH, Cribbs also was second only to Marcus
Thigpen with a stellar 18.37 per handle. As a Raider he’ll see scant snaps on offense,
concentrating mostly as a weapon in the return game in 2013.
Devin Hester, Bears (KR-PR) … Return Specialist
Hester is no longer running routes at WR for the Bears as he devolves back to his true calling of
full-time kick and punt returner. Hester has been the standard-setter in the return game for years,
but looks to have lost a half-step last season. With less energy spent on running pass routes, the
veteran return ace should be a tick faster and fresher in 2012. Those who might be looking past
the once-fleet athlete might want to recall the superb exploits of all-timer Brian Mitchell, who
excelled in his later years using experience and veteran moxie as a returner. There is still plenty
of roar left in Devin Hester’s punt return den and the savvy Bear is still fearless in his play. He
called just 6 fair catches in ’12 and will give his fantasy owners yards and chances.
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Joe McKnight, Jets (KR-RB) … Return Specialist
McKnight might be the #1 kick returner in the AFC. In 2011, the fleet footed tailback returned
34 kick offs for a 31.6 average and 1 TD. Last season he burst out for 39 kickoff returns for a
27.5 average and another score. His expected expansion as an offensive contributor hasn’t gone
well but he is a sure-fire kick return threat. Though strictly a KR, McKnight ranked 8th overall in
total return yards last season with 1072; 2nd most KR yards behind just David Wilson’s 1533
kick only production.
Ted Ginn, Panthers (KR-WR)… Return Specialist
Ted Ginn brings his special teams act to his third NFL team. Ginn rarely contributes as a receiver
on offense, but is a valued return man. Utilized more on punt returns last year, Ginn was third in
the NFC with a 10.2 average. He’ll compete in camp with WR Joe Adams for return duties. Ginn
is a straight-line blazer lacking lateral shiftiness, relying on his wedge to create lanes.
WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles (PR-WR)… Double Dipper
Jackson hasn’t lined up for punt returns much the past couple of seasons; he was deemed too
valuable a weapon on offense and wasn’t exactly thrilled to volunteer either. However, new
coach Chip Kelly likes his players to be available and flexible and DJax is set to field a few
punts in 2013. Possessing track-star speed Jackson can make big things happen with limited
opportunity. In the recent past under Coach Andy Reid Jackson wasn’t about to put himself in
harm’s way on punt returns and it showed in his lack of enthusiasm. Philly added viable return
men the past two seasons, taking DeSean Jackson off special teams in the process. But with the
new coaching regime comes new attitudes, and DeSean Jackson’s has turned for the better so far.
Richard Goodman, Chargers (KR-WR) … Return Specialist
Richard Goodman is a WR that works mainly as a kickoff return specialist in San Diego.
Goodman is a 4.5x40 runner with steady hands and a decent burst. He’ll compete for the fulltime kick off work this season after handling just 18 kick returns last year.
LaRod Stephens-Howling, Steelers (KR-RB)… Return Specialist
Pittsburgh signed LaRod Stephens-Howling for two reasons; running back depth and flexibility
in the kick return units. Stephens-Howling is comfortable bringing back kickoffs and runs
tougher than his 5’7 frame would suggest. His addition should mean the end of special teams
work for now starting wideouts Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. LSH was average in KR
work for Arizona last year, netting just over 22 yards a pop in his 18 take backs.
Eddie Royal, Chargers (PR-WR) … Double Dipper
When healthy Eddie Royal is a competent punt returner that can break an occasional long gainer.
Royal is a willing returner that will eschew the fair catch for the bring-back, but he has been
giving his fantasy owners diminishing returns. Last season Royal averaged just 5.33 YPH…
weak!
LaMichael James, 49ers (KR-RB) … Double Dipper
Frisco’s LaMichael James is a dynamic playmaker that is waiting for his chance to be “the guy”
in the 49ers ‘move’ offense. For now, he’ll bring explosive returns on kick offs for San
Francisco. James took back kicks for a solid 29.79 average. He was limited to just 14 chances as
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opponents were unable to score against SF with any regularity and Kyle Williams also owned
that job early on before injury. James has outstanding speed (4.3x40) and great elusiveness.
DB Marcus Sherels, Vikings (KR-PR-CB) … Return Specialist
Marcus Sherels is fast (4.3x40) and sure-handed. He also seemed to be learning on the job last
season as the speedy DB called 27 fair catches, 2nd most in the NFL. Sherels did have a 77-yard
punt return TD but a mid-level punt return average (8.97). His cautious handling of punts and
penchant for signaling fair catch dropped his YPH to a disappointing 9.45 yards per. In 2013,
Marcus Sherels has the return job all to himself as Percy Harvin has moved on to Seattle.
Brandon Tate, Bengals (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Tate is a do-it-all for the Bengals in the return game. The former college teammate of Hakeem
Nicks is a proven kick returner dating back to his days at North Carolina. Last season Tate fell
into the Cincy coaches doghouse a bit after a few poor decisions fielding punts, but opted to resign with the Bengals for another go. Tate has good wheels (4.5-40 time) and usually brings the
football down cleanly. His share time with Pacman Jones on punt returns limits his overall return
yards potential, but playing both punt and kick teams assures solid numbers by season’s end.
Dwayne Harris, Cowboys (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Dwayne Harris is the favorite to win the third WR spot in Dallas but he should still see action in
the return game. Harris led the NFC in punt return average (16.1), taking one to the house in
2012. He does see a share on the kickoff units, but punt returning is his gig.
Brandon Boykin, Eagles (KR-DB) … Double Dipper
Boykin filled the role of slot-corner last season and was the Eagles top kickoff return man. The
rookie was steady, returning 45 kicks for an underwhelming 23.04 average. With a year under
his belt Boykin should improve on those numbers, utilizing his 4.4 speed better and finding ways
to create bigger run backs.
Stefan Logan, Free Agent (KR-PR-RB) … Return Specialist
Logan is an aging (32) return specialist that is beginning to show some wear. He’s lost a step and
he averaged a lowly 21.32 yards per kickoff last season. He also played the punt game more
conservatively, fair catching 23 of the 56 punts he handles in 2012.
Travaris Cadet, Saints (KR-RB) … Return Specialist
A converted college QB, Cadet is a talented skill player with limited speed (4.6x40) that plays
faster than he times. Cadet worked on the kick units last season, sharing time with Darren
Sproles. Cadet was as good as Sproles in that role, taking back kicks for a 26.5 average (Sproles
had a 26.8 average). He doesn’t have the over-drive gear to scare cover units however.
Michael Spurlock, Lions (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
The Lions let specialist Stefan Logan walk and brought in Michael Spurlock. Spulock helps the
roster in many ways. As a dual-returner, Spurlock brought back a TD each in punt and kickoff
duty last season. The well-traveled Spurlock is a dependable special teams contributor that could
be quite busy in 2013 as a Lion.
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Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (KR-RB) … Double Dipper
The Falcon understudy for Steven Jackson is a steady kickoff performer that had a solid 25.7
average in 2012. He’s likely to continue that role in 2013. Rodgers doesn’t bring elite speed to
the field and is an unlikely prospect to break off many huge returns on the kick team, but he is
consistent and sure handed.
DeMaris Johnson, Eagles (PR-WR) … Return Specialist
The Eagles main punt returner for 2012, Johnson made plays and at times confounded his
coaches. He was spectacular in bringing back a punt for a TD as a rookie, but also had some ball
security issues as well as decision making gaffs. The 5’7 specialist averaged over 11 yards a
return, but waved for the fair catch almost as often as he would take the rock up field (23 FC- 26
returns). Johnson does play at a fast 4.5 game speed, but needs to mature and gain a feel for the
pro job. Though Johnson was a record-setting kickoff performer in college, his freshman work
was exclusively on punt returns. He’ll have to be outstanding to stick as DeSean Jackson is
slated to catch a few punts this season.
Adam Jones, Bengals (PR-DB) … Double Dipper
Adam Pacman Jones is a fast and gifted player with the football in his hands. Jones is a gutsy
punt returner who is hell-bent on making something happen with each chance; he had zero fair
catches in 2012 on 26 chances. The Bengal corner brought one back for an 81-yard score and
averaged 11.6 per return. Jones shares his duties with another excellent specialist, Brandon Tate.
Brandon Banks, Free Agent (KR-PR-WR) … Return Specialist
Coach Shanahan wanted more contribution from Banks; over 1500 all-purpose yards. What
Coach Shanahan got was half of the wish as Banks totaled a lowly 756 all-purpose production.
Though blindingly fast, possessing 4.3 speed, Banks is woefully small at 5’7 and barley 150
pounds. The former Washington return specialist is sure to resurface as camp competition
somewhere this pre-season.
Specialists Likely to see Reduced Role or Removed From Return Duties:
WR Percy Harvin, Seahawks … Double Dipper
Harvin doesn’t return many kicks or punts anymore, but he did return 16 kick offs and was
dynamic doing so. Harvin averaged 35.9 yards and turned one of those into a TD. His days as a
special teams demon are closing fast and Harvin will likely see few snaps on returns, but his high
touch potential on offense is a PPR dream.
Randall Cobb, Packers (KR-PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Randall Cobb’s days as a full-time special teams ace may be coming to an end. Cobb is now a
big-wheel in the Packer passing game and the risk of injury in kick returns may be too high for
the Green Bay coaching staff to gamble on. Still, Cobb piled up 2342 yards of production last
season with 1256 coming on kick and punt returns; he scored a punt return TD. Keep an eye on
the camp news out of Lambeau Field for Cobb’s special teams potential participation this season.
TY Hilton, Colts (PR-WR) … Double Dipper
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The second season wideout brings speed and vision to the punt return unit in Indianapolis. Some
football pundits feel Hilton’s special team work will be sparse this season as his role in the Colt
offense expands. However, Indy signed WR Darrius Heyward-Bey off the free agent market,
providing roster depth at receiver and wiggle room for the Colt coaches to potentially keep
Hilton in the return game. Hilton was OK in his 7 kick returns, but excelled on punt duty,
averaging over 11 yards a return and scoring a TD.
Chris Givens, Rams (KR-WR) … Double Dipper
Chris Givens is fast! When your SLOW time is 4.4, you can fly. The problem with Givens is he
doesn’t see the lanes clearly as a kick returner. Givens’ 2013 role in the offense is sure to grow
from his 2012 use and it is likely his kickoff return work will be sparse. St. Louis has other
options in the return game.
WR Antonio Brown, Steelers (PR-WR) … Double Dipper
Brown had that breakout season in 2011, totaling 2211 All-Purpose yards. That stellar
production dropped to 994 all-purpose work in 2012. Heading into 2013, the Steelers need
Antonio Brown on offense and his return chances are down to next-to-nothing.
Emmanuel Sanders, Steelers (KR-WR) … Double Dipper
The Steelers ponied up some new dollars to keep Emmanuel Sanders in town, after a flirtation by
the Patriots to steal Sanders away. Sanders is now being counted on heavily in the regular
offensive game plan and his days as a regular wedge buster may be over. More shifty than fast,
Sanders is confident handling the football and mostly plays on punt teams. Check his pre-season
usage. Pittsburgh signed LaRod Stephens-Howling in the off-season and he is likely to assume
returns responsibilities.
WR Jeremy Kerley, Jets (PR-WR)… Double Dipper
Kereley was a full time performer on offense last season and on the punt return team. However
Kerley seemed to be reluctant to take a chance in receiving punts, calling for an NFL high 36 fair
catches while running back just 19. Thanks to his hesitancy Kerley’s YPH was an abysmal 3.78.
When he did take a chance, he was good; he averaged over 10 yards a punt return and had one
TD. The Jets need his hands and energy more as a receiver this season as the receiving corps is
thin.
WR Julian Edelman, Patriots (PR-KR-WR)… Double Dipper
It is a good probability that Edelman will be taking regular snaps on offense this year as the
Patriots work through a complete revamping of the receiving ranks. But you can never say never
with Coach Belichick at the helm. Edelman is a fast and fearless punt returner who will rarely
call for a fair catch. In limited opportunities last season Edelman broke loose for an outstanding
15.47 yards per punt return, and added a TD to boot. If he could stay healthy, he’d be lethal on
special teams and offense.
Devin McCourty, Patriots (KR-FS) … Double Dipper
Devin McCourty is a Coach Belichick kind of guy; he plays where he is needed. McCourty has
lined up at corner, safety and on kick off units for the Patriots. His 2013 special teams work with
the football in his hands may be capped by the signing of former Seahawk specialist Leon
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Washington. McCourty was steady on kick returns last year and took one to the house. Check on
his pre-season work before considering McCourty in the fantasy return game.
Rueben Randle, Giants (PR-WR) … Double Dipper
AS a rookie Rueben Randle was asked to jump in and help out on punt returns. Randle is a
tentative punt receiver, fair-catching as often as pulling the ball down and taking off with it.
Randle “handled” 30 punts last season, taking 15 upfield and calling off the dogs on another 15.
He averaged a paltry 3.6 yards per handle (YPH)… not what fanballers want in their return guys.
However, his snaps on offense should expand.
David Wilson, Giants (KR-RB) … Double Dipper
The rookie RB led the NFL in total kick return yards (26.89) and number of kickoffs handled
(57). He took one of those to the house. Don’t look for the Giants to put Wilson back there this
season as the young tailback assumes the lead role in the running game.
Other kick and punt returners of note:
Cassius Vaughn, Colts (KR-DB)
Dominique Franks, Falcons (PR-DB)
William Powell, Cardinal (KR-RB)
Brad Smith, Bills (KR-WR)
Kyle Williams, 49ers (KR-PR-WR)
Deonte Thompson, Ravens (KR-WR)
Armanti Edwards, Joe Adams, Panthers (KR-PR-WR)
Arrelious Benn, Eagles (KR-WR)
Niles Paul, Redskins (KR-TE)
Lance Dunbar, Cowboys (KR-RB)
Player
Tommie Campbell
Jerrel Jernigan
Marcus Easley
Deji Karim
Percy Harvin
Travis Benjamin
LaMichael James
Lavelle Hawkins
Clyde Gates
Joe McKnight
Richard Goodman
Brad Smith
David Wilson
Deonte Thompson
Jacquizz Rodgers
Travaris Cadet
Chris Rainey
K
R
0
1
2
9
16
3
14
7
5
39
18
18
57
15
23
26
39
P
R
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
FC
1
HDL
0
1
2
9
16
7
14
7
5
39
18
18
57
15
23
27
42
RET
YDS
65
60
75
328
574
225
417
205
144
1072
497
496
1533
389
592
692
1051
YPH
65
60
37.5
36.44
35.88
32.14
29.79
29.29
28.8
27.79
27.61
27.56
26.89
25.93
25.74
25.63
25.02
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Devin McCourty
William Powell
Rashad Jennings
Kealoha Pilares
Coye Francies
Jeremy Ross
Richard Murphy
Kendall Hunter
Arrelious Benn
Chris Givens
Shaun Draughn
Jalen Parmele
Brandon Boykin
L. StephensHowling
Mike Goodson
Armond Smith
Niles Paul
Lance Dunbar
Keith Toston
Curtis Brinkley
Felix Jones
Isaiah Pead
Armanti Edwards
Cassius Vaughn
LeQuan Lewis
Tom Zbikowski
Josh Robinson
Bryce Brown
Jordan Todman
Marcus Thigpen
Omar Bolden
Anthony Allen
Josh Bellamy
Josh Cribbs
Pierre Thomas
Kyle Williams
Leodis McKelvin
Joe Lefeged
Jacoby Jones
Eric Weems
Darius Reynaud
Chris Carr
Keshawn Martin
Richard Crawford
Brandon Tate
Julian Edelman
27
21
10
9
20
3
5
7
13
23
23
10
45
18
16
6
13
12
3
4
11
10
12
10
5
6
3
8
4
38
14
3
4
43
5
13
18
4
38
13
53
5
31
0
32
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
26
0
0
0
38
0
4
23
0
37
1
31
2
22
8
21
17
1
2
6
8
6
14
16
17
10
2
11
1
27
21
10
9
20
8
5
7
13
23
23
10
46
18
16
6
13
12
3
4
11
10
16
10
5
6
3
8
4
70
14
3
4
89
5
23
55
4
91
14
101
7
63
10
64
21
654
507
241
216
475
189
118
165
306
539
537
233
1044
405
359
131
283
261
65
86
236
212
337
209
106
123
61
156
78
1356
270
56
74
1635
91
405
941
68
1508
231
1650
113
1008
156
982
301
24.22
24.14
24.1
24
23.75
23.63
23.6
23.57
23.54
23.44
23.35
23.3
22.7
22.5
22.44
21.83
21.77
21.75
21.67
21.5
21.46
21.2
21.06
20.9
20.6
20.5
20.33
19.5
19.5
19.37
19.29
18.67
18.5
18.37
18.2
17.61
17.11
17
16.57
16.5
16.34
16.14
16
15.6
15.34
14.33
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Randall Cobb
Justin Rogers
Devin Hester
Devon Wylie
Leon Washington
Brandon Banks
Trindon Holliday
Dwayne Harris
Adam Jones
Micheal Spurlock
LaVon Brazill
Darren Sproles
Joe Adams
Stefan Logan
Ted Ginn Jr.
Javier Arenas
Quan Cosby
Jordan Shipley
Marcus Sherels
T.Y. Hilton
Wes Welker
Roscoe Parrish
Patrick Peterson
Mike Thomas
Emmanuel Sanders
Damaris Johnson
Eddie Royal
Antonio Brown
Danny Amendola
Dez Bryant
Captain Munnerlyn
Austin Pettis
Dominique Franks
Phillip Adams
Jeremy Kerley
Rueben Randle
Jim Leonhard
Devone Bess
38
2
24
9
27
22
21
11
3
16
3
18
9
28
11
10
5
6
16
7
3
4
0
3
1
0
0
0
2
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
K
R
31
3
40
5
41
26
48
22
26
17
2
23
11
33
32
34
5
13
32
26
25
30
51
9
9
26
12
27
17
12
14
11
21
25
19
15
15
4
P
R
21
6
2
17
5
10
11
16
14
11
23
12
4
4
2
27
18
7
15
14
4
9
23
8
10
2
5
9
18
9
36
15
16
18
FC
90
5
70
16
85
53
79
44
29
49
5
55
31
84
55
48
14
21
75
51
35
49
65
16
19
49
12
35
29
14
20
21
39
34
55
30
32
22
HDL
1256
69
952
217
1140
705
1033
564
365
614
62
666
335
897
579
501
145
202
709
418
276
384
426
102
120
291
64
183
138
66
89
90
163
139
208
108
107
30
RET
YDS
13.96
13.8
13.6
13.56
13.41
13.3
13.08
12.82
12.59
12.53
12.5
12.11
10.81
10.68
10.53
10.44
10.38
9.62
9.45
8.2
7.89
7.84
6.55
6.38
6.32
5.94
5.33
5.23
4.76
4.71
4.45
4.29
4.18
4.09
3.78
3.6
3.34
1.36
YPH
Note: Many NFL stars cut their pro teeth on special teams, as kick cover grunts or return
specialists. Carolina’s rugged WR Steve Smith, the Lions Reggie Bush, Saints super gnat Darren
Sproles and Steelers’ new top wideout Antonio Brown were one-time kick and punt return
specialists. In training camps new special teams stars are “found” each year as these relentless
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athletes lay it all on the line to make a pro squad. If you are looking for that extra edge, be sure
to read up on your scouting reports, and pay attention to what is going down in the return units
around the league. This is one of the few areas that a player can mostly rely on athletic ability,
rather than game smarts. If you can get guys who are working double-duty (offense or defense,
and special teams) their respective values and the potential for sneaking in a few extra fantasy
points will be higher than one might expect. Double Dippers already have value without the
special teams stats, but usually experience an increase in points due to their kickoff and punt
return prowess. Players that are true specialists can contribute in non-traditional methods for
fantasy football leagues that include return stats as a point producing vehicle.
Fantasy leagues are finding creative ways for virtual franchises to score more points each week.
The return action is one place where many league commissioners are turning to for added fanball
scoring excitement. Get in on the special teams action!
Many happy “returns”!
~ end ~
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RBBC: The Four Most Hated Letters in Fantasy Football
July 26, 2013
by: Chris Rito
Fundamental “FFL 101” lesson #1: The reason that fantasy football drafts are so top heavy in RBs
is not merely because RBs generally are the most consistent performers or the highest scorers. In
the current NFL, it is also because they are in the shortest supply relative to demand, since so
many coaches are relying on a committee backfield rather than a solitary stud. Long gone are the
days when Csonka-Kiick-Morris and Bleier-Harris were the exception – now they are the rule.
Many teams now use some combination of a main running back, a sticky-handed guy as a 3rddown back, a beefier short-yardage/goal line back, and a speedy “change-of-pace” RB. Simple
math shows us that a 10-12 team fantasy league will have anywhere from 20-36 starters at RB,
while the NFL has just a handful of guys that can be reasonably expected to carry the majority of
the load at RB for their respective NFL team. Contrast that to the QB position where there are 32
NFL starters each week and only a need for 10-12 fantasy starters.
Sometimes a team uses RBBC because they have too much talent at RB to keep all the guys on
the bench. Sometimes it is because they have too little talent to make one guy into a feature back.
Sometimes a transition of philosophy (i.e., in the coaching staff or personnel) requires a team to
use an erratic lineup week to week. Sometimes age, specific skills, injury, suspensions or contract
issues rear up and render the commitment to a single guy difficult, often on short notice during
the preseason or regular season.
In fact, this year we may see even more of this phenomenon than usual in the NFL, since
imitation is, indeed, the sincerest form of flattery and is a reality of life in a copycat league like
the NFL. In 2007, the Giants rode a three-headed monster to a stunning upset of the seemingly
invincible Patriots in the SuperBowl. That year the Patriots’ passing game got all the attention,
but they, too, were using an effective three-way RBBC all season as well. Over the last 6-7 years,
even more teams have morphed towards this fantasy nightmare that is proving to be effective in
the NFL. Whatever the reason in any specific case, there are a lot of these situations in the NFL
currently (by my count, over half of the league's 32 teams), so I will detail the situations in all 32
NFL locker rooms for you, looking at the potential or perceived RBBCs. Hopefully this list will
help you decide which gamble you wish to take for your fantasy squad on your draft day.
Arizona Cardinals
Will it be the pedigree of Rashard Mendenhall or the untapped potential of Ryan Williams that is
the best fantasy producer in the desert? Mendenhall's track record in the pros is pockmarked with
dings and injuries, but he was a solid fantasy performer in Pittsburgh for two seasons when
coupled with current Cardinals' head coach Bruce Arians. Williams may be the better pure runner
and has more upside, but is a much longer shot to win the job...and there will be a winner,
because Arians is a big believer in the use of a single workhorse back. Of course, both guys are
coming off injury-marred seasons as well, so one wonders how much of either we will see in the
preseason to help us decide the value here. So...with his history as a proven pro performer
(especially with Arians), I would be surprised if a healthy Mendenhall does not usurp over 80%
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of the backfield work in Arizona. It also would not surprise me if a good camp by the two rookie
RBs puts Williams in the unemployment line. Key stat: As a team, Arizona was dead last in the
NFL in 2012 in rushing attempts, yards and YPC.
Atlanta Falcons
Tiring of the plodding by the fading Michael Turner, the Falcons made a splash in free agency by
getting longtime Ram stud Steven Jackson, putting to rest any thoughts of Jacquizz Rodgers
taking part in a RBBC. Quizz won't even be as much of a 3rd down back as before, since Jackson
is one of the premier passing-down RBs in the game and is riding a streak of eight straight 1000
yard rushing seasons, and is averaging nearly 50 catches per year in that time also. Remember
that the guy that would be the feature back in case of injury to Jackson is probably Jason Snelling,
and he makes a better handcuff if you are so inclined. Barring catastrophe, S-Jax still should be a
low-end RB#1 for any team despite being available as a RB#2 or even as a #3. Key stat: Michael
Turner caught 59 passes combined in his 5 years in Atlanta; Jackson has averaged 49 catches over
the last 8 seasons
Baltimore Ravens
Ray Rice is the real deal and is a surefire top 5-7 selection in any draft in 2013. He will be among
the league leaders in touches and RB receptions, and is a game breaker. He may also be the best
receiving option on his team. I expect that second-year man Bernard Pierce will contribute more
in 2013 in the backup role, and will be a must-have fantasy handcuff in 2013. This is not as onedimensional of a backfield as it has been, but the lion's share of the work will still go to Rice.
Pierce is still draftable in the middle rounds even if not being used as a handcuff, as a solid part
time player with high upside. Key stat: Despite having a disappointing statistical season, Ray
Rice was 2nd in the NFL among RBs in receptions and targets last year.
Buffalo Bills
The Fred Jackson experience has finally come to an end. C.J. Spiller exploded on the fantasy
scene last season, finishing in the top ten overall and setting himself up to be the bell cow in
Buffalo. Many wonder if the veteran Fred Jackson will cut into Spillers touches, especially down
around the goal line, but my bet is that he gets just enough action to keep Spiller fresh. Jackson
was already being phased out last season even before struggling with some nagging injuries, so I
do not expect that the new coaching regime will see him as a viable option nor will they try to do
too much with the cagey vet. It is worth noting though, that despite seeing limited action and
despite Spiller's prowess as a receiver, Jackson actually had nearly as many targets and receptions
as Spiller last season. Key stat: C.J. Spiller led the league in fantasy points per "touch" and YPC
in 2012
Carolina Panthers
Just when you thought it could not get any murkier in Carolina.... Jonathan Stewart as the starter
and DeAngelo Williams as the nominal backup have split work over the last few seasons and
collectively formed a very effective RBBC. Although both guys can run inside and out, this is the
most talented “Thunder and Lightning” sort of arrangement in the NFL with the powerful Stewart
and the speedy Williams able to take turns abusing opposing defenses. Then the new goal line
back in Carolina became the QB Cam Newton as he rushed for 14 TDs as a rookie, mostly from
inside the five. Then, in 2012 the Panthers signed the league's other best goal line back Mike
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Tolbert to a decent deal, so goodness knows who will get touches in Carolina. Then they drafted
another RB this year! If one of the two veterans in the backfield gets hurt (as usual), the
remaining guy will vastly outperform his draft position and be a decent RB#2. Both are midround draft worthy and both have spotty potential week to week, with Williams likely to start the
season better due to Stewart's delayed recovery from offseason surgery. Key stat: The Panthers
have scored 47 rushing TDs in the last two seasons combined.
Chicago Bears
For the first time in his 5-year career, Matt Forte did not lead the team in both rushing and
receptions (only because of Brandon Marshall's ludicrous reception totals). Michael Bush was
signed last year to take some of the pressure off of Forte as he recovered from a 2011 injury, but
Bush's own injury woes limited his role in 2012. Bush surely will cut into Forte's goal line looks
and also has the ability to push the pile, play the 3rd down role, or even carry the load as a feature
back as he has shown in recent years. But the real deal here is that new coach Mark Trestman is
sure to use the receiving skills of Matt Forte even more than in the past, and this might indeed
reduce the role that Michael Bush will play in 2013. I look for Forte to still get the bulk of the
action and to be a great RB#2 and maybe even a low-end #1 in 2013, and for his total touches to
be a bit higher as compared to recent seasons. This makes Bush lass interesting as a part time
RBBC type of draft pick, and only has value as a handcuff or in case of a Forte Injury, except in
scoring-heavy leagues. Key stat: Michael Bush (5) had nearly as many TDs as Forte (6) with only
40% as many touches.
Cincinnati Bengals
Despite two seasons by the Law Firm as a solid fantasy performer and a second straight 1000yard season, the Bengals went out and drafted what many believe was the best RB in this draft
class. This is a situation that has the pundits all over the chart, ranging from BJGE still carrying
the load all the way to the rookie being the workhorse. Realistically, I think it is going to be a
fairly even split among the two for fantasy purposes with each getting about half of the points
available - just by very different means. I suspect that Green-Ellis will remain on the field in early
downs and on the goal line (note this for scoring-heavy leagues), but that the rookie will see a fair
amount of action on 3rd down as well as occasional early carries to keep Green-Ellis fresh. This is
a situation with two good backs and a solid team that will be better in NFL-terms as a result of the
time share...but not-so-appealing for the fantasy owner. FYI, the rookie is generally being drafted
first -- on average as much as two rounds earlier in PPR leagues and by a half round in non-PPRs.
Key stat: BenJarvus Green-Ellis fumbled twice in one September game last season after having
never fumbled in the remainder of his 80 professional games.
Cleveland Browns
This is a backfield with an up-and-coming O-line and a young stud RB; the running game will be
T-Rich and more T-Rich in 2013. So to whom do you latch your handcuff label in Cleveland?
The Browns did move up to grab powerful Montario Hardesty in the 2010 draft, and he possesses
the all-around potential to be a feature back -- if only he could stay healthy…Then again, there is
the same concern for Richardson as he has been continually banged up and is even gimpy in the
offseason. There will be no RBBC if he is healthy, and the Browns' run game is not likely going
to be interesting if he is injured. It is even possible that Chris Ogbannaya could be the handcuff
and backup by the time the season starts. Key stat: Even though they fumbled the ball eight times
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in 2012 (6th worst in the NFL), the Cleveland RBs never lost one, being only one of two NFL
teams without a lost RB fumble.
Dallas Cowboys
DeMarco Murray will certainly be the feature back and a solid RB#2 with RB#1 potential in
2013, but will he be able to play 16 games or anything close to it for the first time as a pro?
Because of Murray's extensive injury history in college and the pros, the handcuff is an important
fantasy tidbit; unfortunately, no one knows who that will be yet; the odds-on favorite to win that
role is rookie Joseph Randle, making him a must-have handcuff as a Murray owner and a decent
late-round flyer otherwise. 3rd year man Philip Tanner got a lot of ink as a sleeper in 2011-12, but
is probably a distant third in the pecking order in Big D. On the whole, this pie will not likely get
split too much with only a healthy Murray being a sure bet to be highly fantasy relevant as the
season kicks off. Key stat: Why replace RBBC member Felix Jones? His YPC dropped from 8.9
to 5.9 to 4.3 to 3.6 over the last four years.
Denver Broncos
Recently released Willis McGahee looked like the best running back on the roster all of last year
and led this RBBC before ending his season on IR; in fact he quietly was #4 in the NFL in fantasy
PPG among RBs through week 8 of last year. Knowshon Moreno may be the most gifted back on
the roster, but he has never shown anything consistently until the playoffs last season. Ronnie
Hillman is running with the first team in the OTAs thus far and could be the feature back if given
the chance, and rookie Montee Ball has been drafted as a fantasy RB#2 or #3 in most drafts thus
far with an ADP of 6.05. What a mess, right? Ball is likely to be the goal line option among the
available backs in Denver, and is worth taking as your RB#3 under any circumstances, and
Hillman makes a good mid-round flier with the upside to be a feature back. In fact, as much as I
love Montee Ball in dynasty formats...I might actually prefer Hillman to be the lead fantasy back
in this RBBC, especially in PPR leagues. I can see Moreno being merely a backup and depth
provider, and probably is not draftable in any league. Key stat: Denver ran the NFL's most
rushing plays inside the opponent 10 yard line in 2012 despite having Peyton Manning lead the
NFL with 24 red zone passing TDs
Detroit Lions
The Lions have finally moved on from Jahvid Best and invested heavily in free agent Reggie
Bush to lead the backfield, and to give it the explosion it has been missing since Barry Sanders
retired. Bush not only becomes the most experienced runner in Detroit, but also is the most
accomplished receiver (outside of Megatron). There is still some depth that looks like it could be
a RBBC, but I would not expect to see as much of it in 2013 unless Bush gets dinged. The only
exception may be that Mikel Leshoure may retain the goal line duties as he has done well in that
capacity, and he may make a solid RB#4 in scoring heavy leagues. Quietly, Joique Bell was the
5th leading receiver (52 catches) and 3rd in receiving yards (485) among all NFL running backs
last year despite playing a very limited role, so he has earned some spot duty to keep Bush fresh
and reduce his touches a little. This offense should take another step forward this year, so there
may be some improved stats in line for the Lions’ backfield in total in 2012, and a healthy Bush
can maximize his value in this partial RBBC. Key stat: Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure combined
to catch 86 passes in 2012, and the team as a whole targeted the RB 144 times with passes.
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Green Bay Packers
The team filled in somewhat by committee all year in 2012 using the departed Ryan Grant, Cedric
Benson and James Starks, FB John Kuhn... even practice squad guy DuJuan Harris was starting
by the postseason! And all were pedestrian at best. The team thought they had filled the bill with
veteran Cedric Benson last year but this offseason bit the bullet and drafted two potential feature
backs that should be able to carry the run game as rookies. Many thought Eddie Lacy was the best
RB in this draft class, and Johnathan Franklin is an underrated performer with a solid history in a
big program. While Lacy will go much higher this year in your fantasy drafts and should have the
first crack at carries, Franklin will likely be the better draft day value as a much later round
selection. A shrewd drafter sitting at the end of a round in a serpentine draft could even take them
both and assure himself the Packers' run game with two middle round picks. Lacy should get
significantly more touches in this RBBC if all works out as planned for Green Bay, but I have a
hunch that come fantasy playoff time Franklin may be the guy you like better on your roster. Key
stat: Aaron Rodgers was the team's second leading rusher last year with 259 yards, and the only
backfield man to average over 4 YPC (4.8).
Houston Texans
As the likely #2 pick in many fantasy leagues, it is safe to say that Arian Foster will open the
season as the starter in Houston and is not slated for much of a time share, even with a minor calf
injury recently. Ben Tate usually sees a lot of garbage time and/or is spelling Foster on occasion,
and nearly ended up with a 1000 yard season himself in 2011, so he is more than a capable back.
Tate is certainly a must-grab handcuff for those that spend their early pick on Arian Foster, but
also makes a solid 7th-8th round pick for any owner looking for RB depth. The Texans' likely
dominance will mean that they will see more chances to run out the clock, and Tate could actually
get a 1000 yard season even without an injury to Foster. While not truly a RBBC since Foster is
definitely "the man" in Houston, there are enough touches and talent here to make two separate
RBs worthy of fantasy starts for your team in larger leagues. Key stat: Houston is the only team to
run the ball more than 500 times in each of the last two seasons.
Indianapolis Colts
The backfield has been in flux in Indianapolis for several years now, but this year there is hope
for optimism for the first time since the days of Edgerrin James. The recent signing of Ahmad
Bradshaw gives the team a bona fide lead back, but his injury history should give the team cause
to limit his touches if at all possible. Some have speculated that bruising 3rd year man Delone
Carter could serve as a goal line back, but that won’t happen unless he improves his ball security.
Last year's leading rusher was rookie Vick Ballard, and his nose for the end zone probably makes
him a more likely goal line back if there is one in Indy, as well as a necessary handcuff to
Bradshaw and the likely #2 in Indy. Donald Brown has singularly failed to grab a hold of his
numerous feature opportunities over the years, and could be a camp casualty with the youth
present on the roster. On the whole, this one looks to be about a 65:35 split in the RBBC, with
Bradshaw being the best bet for fantasy relevance in 2013 as a solid RB#3. Key stat: Tales of woe
- the team did not have a running play longer than 26 yards all season, and Andrew Luck had
nearly as many rushing scores (5) as the entire RB corps combined (6).
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Simply put, there is no RBBC in Jacksonville. The Jaguars made Maurice Jones-Drew one of the
highest paid RBs in the NFL and know how to use him. A conservative system, an every-down
skill set and no real competition for carries makes MJD again one of the safest 3-down back bets
in the fantasy world for 2013, even coming off a Lis-Franc injury in 2012. Justin Forsett will spell
him as needed, and he would be the guy to step in should the workload begin to wear on the
bowling-ballish MoJo. Rookie "offensive weapon" Denard Robinson could get occasional looks
and gimmick plays, but likely is only a fantasy factor with an enlarged role if MJD goes down
again. Key stat: Aside from his injury-shortened season last year, Jones-Drew has averaged over
12 TDs per season for his seven year career, even though he was not a starter until 2009.
Kansas City Chiefs
Like the situation in Jacksonville, this one is also not going to be a RBBC, Jamaal Charles is a
true workhorse stud despite his size, and Andy Reid has already said he will ride his horse early
and often. The fortunate thing for Charles is that he also should see more work in the passing
game. But the key for an RBBC consideration is this: will this workload wear him down, or will
the team use an RBBC to keep him fresh? I do not think they will use other bodies unless Charles
gets dinged or shows signs of slowing, so don't pin your hopes on anyone else getting a lot of
work in this fairly high-octane offense. Rookie Knile Davis is the likely handcuff to Charles, but
is a late round pick at best and there will be no time share here...unless Charles breaks down from
the workload. Key stat: No team has rushed the ball more often that the Kansas City Chiefs over
the last three NFL seasons (1543 carries)
Miami Dolphins
With the departure of leading man Reggie Bush and Pro Bowl LT Jake Long, one could wonder
how the running game will fare in 2013. A sexy pick in many summer drafts has been Lamar
Miller, who has been going as a solid RB#3 so far...and surely will have the first shot at being the
lead horse in this RBBC. The oft-concussed Daniel Thomas is still lurking about and the team has
waited for several years for him to step up and take the reins, so don't be surprised if the hook is
short in the backfield, or if the team simply rides the hot hand. A dark horse is rookie Mike
Gillislee, who may be the best pass blocker among the RBs and this fact alone could earn him at
least spot duty in what is looking to be a more pass-heavy offense than in recent years. I suspect
that Miller easily will be the best bet for fantasy purposes, but that the sharing of the shrinking pie
known as "Dolphins' rushing yards" means that all of these guys will see the ball a little and
therefore likely underperform their draft positions. Key stat: When healthy (weeks 3-12) last
season, Daniel Thomas was evenly splitting touches with Reggie Bush and outperforming him.
Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson had always been one of the few every-down backs in the NFL and he dominated
the touches in Minnesota for the last few years, but his late-season ACL tear in 2011 rendered
him iffy for the season opener, or at least for a full load. And so he simply went out and rushed
for 2100 yards. Uhh...yeah. Don't even think about RBBC or handcuffs here, because if Peterson
goes down, I don't think you will be satisfied with Gerhart's production as compared to the RB#3
already on your roster. Key stat: After they took off the restrictions and let AD play, his last ten
games alone would have made him the NFL's 5th best fantasy RB and still led the NFL in
rushing.
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New England Patriots
This unit quietly scores an awful lot of rushing TDs despite the passing game talent they possess,
leading the NFL with 25 ground scores last year and finishing second with 523 carries. Part of
that was due to the desire to take the risk away by focusing on Tom Brady, but in reality the Pats
have run the ball very well in recent years despite their more noteworthy aerial attack. The run
game still should be “there for the taking” again in 2013, even with serious questions about the
receiving targets. Stevan Ridley has shined more brightly than has Shane Vereen thus far, and he
is in line for another huge year as he comes off a quiet 1263-yard, 12-TD rushing campaign. With
Danny Woodhead having moved on, Vereen as the better pass catching back could also be a
viable spot starter especially in a PPR. Beefy LeGarrette Blount could be the team's most recent
reclamation project and could be a designated goal line hammer if he makes the team, although he
has not excelled in that role in the past. Key stat: Despite Brady's high tendency to throw the ball
in the red zone, the Patriots have finished in the top 7 in rushing TDs every season since 2005
New Orleans Saints
This again will be one of the most interesting RBBCs since this high-octane offense could
legitimately claim two fantasy starters. Despite all the acclaim that the passing game got in the
Superbowl run a few years ago, the rushing attack (6th) actually ranked higher in the NFL that
year than did the passing game (7th)! The Saints collapse last season can primarily be attributed to
the decline of their unheralded 3-headed monster rushing attack. The desire probably is for
youngster Mark Ingram and mighty mite Darren Sproles to share the load with Ingram
predominantly carrying the ball between the tackles and Sproles often splitting out wide.
However, I would not forget about Pierre Thomas (50 catches in 2011) either who has hung
around as a sneaky week-to-week play for several years, and would be fantasy gold if there were
an injury to either Sproles or Ingram; he is also the best bet to outperform his late-round draft
position. Both Sproles and one of the other backs should both be good enough to merit being in
your fantasy lineup week to week, with Ingram/Thomas as a solid RB#3. Sproles in a PPR league
still is a solid RB#2 as he could top 80 catches again in 2013 (he led NFL backs in 2011 and
2012); his potential to return a kick for a score should not be forgotten either. Key stat: The Saints
were the only team in the NFL not to have a RB fumble the ball in 2012.
New York Giants
The G-men are very aware of the fact that they won it all riding a four-headed RBBC in 2007, and
again in 2011 with three major contributors. But lead dog Ahmad Bradshaw has moved on to
Indy, leaving behind only some former RBBC contributors in David Wilson and Andre Brown in
the Meadowlands. David Wilson is another speed guy and will be a seamless replacement for him
on the field if he learns to protect the ball and his franchise QB; he actually is far more electric
than was Bradshaw, so this is a huge step up for the Giants. The "hammer" role will likely fall to
Andre Brown, who makes a sneaky mid-round pickup or a decent RB#3 in a TD-heavy scoring
system. Brown also proved he can be an every down back as he had several good weeks in relief
of an injured Bradshaw in 2012. Wilson should be the starter and certainly will be the better
fantasy contributor, but Giants will continue to significantly split the action in an attempt to keep
these guys healthy in 2013. Key stat: The Giants improved their YPC by 1.2 and gathered in over
400 additional yards on the same number of carries in 2012, just by replacing Brandon Jacobs
with the explosive Wilson in their RBBC.
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New York Jets
Rex Ryan’s team got away from their trend of pounding the rock, finishing in the bottom third of
the NFL in both rushing attempts and yards in 2011, and tried to fix that by running the ball a lot
in 2012. They tried to hand the reins to a new horse (the plodding third-year man, Shonn Greene)
with the result being the most pedestrian 1000 yard season in NFL history. The team went out and
got a more explosive runner in New Orleans RBBC man Chris Ivory, who should be the best ball
carrier for Gang Green; with the number of rushing attempts on the table in Ryan's preferred
offense, he is a player that bears watching, even if splitting time in an RBBC. An ineffective
Ivory could also give way to Bilal Powell, who would be the likely heir should Ivory flame out or
get hurt. Mike Goodson was supposedly signed to be the #2 here, but I think his recent legal woes
may put the kibosh on that plan, and his presence could only muddy the waters further. While
Ivory could be a de facto "feature back," I have my doubts about this situation and I think this
could devolve into a messy RBBC by season's end. Key stat: The Jets averaged only 3.8 YPC as
a team for each of the last two seasons behind an aging offensive line.
Oakland Raiders
The electric Darren McFadden has been compared to the second coming of Gale Sayers...if
McFadden can stay on the field. But oh...that is a huge "IF"! Every fantasy owner has been
burned by this guy, so therefore we all go into season drafting as if there is a RBBC in Oakland,
although nothing could be further from the truth until McFadden gets hurt. While Run DMc
should certainly be a 2nd or 3rd selection in most drafts, his history cannot be forgotten. The sad
part is that there is not a clear handcuff to McFadden for the first time in a long while. FB Marcel
Reese was the guy that ended up as fantasy gold last year for his 52 catches and 3-4 weeks of
solid RB#2 production. Rashad Jennings was signed to be the backup and is a capable starter if
needed, but he also is coming off of an injury. If I had to place my bets on drafting a handcuff, I
would go with Reece as a solid contributor, or rookie Latavius Murray as a guy with boom-orbust potential in that instance. In either case, you would be drafting any of these guys only to be
used if/when McFadden drops. Again. Key stat: Oakland RBs scored the fewest TDs (four) of
any team in the NFL last season.
Philadelphia Eagles
LeSean McCoy was finally given the chance to carry the load in Philly with the departure of longtime fantasy stud Brian Westbrook. And boy did he run with it. McCoy is a fantasy stud and
likely will not see his touches curtailed by anything other than another injury. However, the highspeed offense favored by new coach Chip Kelly is actually very run-centered and there should be
a TON of running touches available for sharing. The pace of the offense likely means that there
will be a need to share touches to keep players fresh at all times on the field. For this reason, I like
backups Bryce brown and Felix Jones to each be roster worthy in 12 team leagues, and for Brown
to be the primary handcuff and backup. Brown has a fumbling issue, but his productivity in relief
of McCoy last season cannot be denied. Assuming everyone is healthy, I expect McCoy to be a
solid RB#1 and for Brown to be a decent #3/#4 with spot-start capability. Key stat: For all the
talk about Vick's butterfingers, the RBs led the league with 10 lost fumbles.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
The run game devolved into a RBBC last year mostly due to injury as each of the three backs
spent some time on the shelf. The team drafted MSU standout Le'Veon Bell and many pundits are
assuming that he will win the starting job in Pittsburgh. I am not so sure, and even so I can easily
see this one being another RBBC season with no clear-cut talent difference between the three men
in camp. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are each back to take some carries and each has
more experience and more speed than the powerful and plodding Bell. If Bell does get a clear role
early, I can see it being as the goal line hammer - a role that has had fertile fantasy ground in
recent seasons. I am not so sold on Bell being the lead dog in this RBBC and I would be hesitant
to take one in an early fantasy draft...unless you have the capacity and roster space to take all
three of them and let camp sort things out. It would not surprise me if one of Dwyer/Redman is
released as the team signs a veteran feature back (like McGahee, Benson, Turner, etc.) as camp
progresses. Key stat: Redman and Dwyer combined for more fumbles (5) than TDs (4) in 2012.
San Diego Chargers
The common feeling was that Ryan Matthews would build on his solid finish to his rookie season
and would take over as the bell cow in SD, but that is kind of hard when the guy can’t stay off the
trainer’s table. As has been joked, he had more broken collarbones in 2012 than he did TDs -never a good sign. Matthews did split a lot of the receiving action with Ronnie Brown last year,
and the addition of Danny Woodhead to the backfield means that the receptions will likely be
headed his way as he takes on a less-electric "Darren Sproles" role for the Chargers. Woodhead
will probably also be the lone back in many passing situations, so the poor Chargers defense
could mean that he is on the field a lot. Expectations are low for Matthews, but he should get a lot
of the carries if healthy; Woodhead will be the better draft day bargain, especially in PPR leagues
where he could also serve as a solid #3 even if Mathews stays on the field. Key stat: The departed
Jackie Battle scored three of the team's four rushing TDs in 2012.
San Francisco 49ers
Gore should be back among the realm of the stud RBs and could have his fantasy value rise
higher than his draft position if Colin Kaepernick can continue his development and afford a
viable threat in the passing game. Gore is a great runner, top-end receiver and a powerful goal
line runner. He will do it all. Watch for backup Kendall Hunter and the explosive LaMichael
James to battle it out for the primary backup slot and to be worth a late-round selection as a
fantasy handcuff for Gore (but only a slim shot at being fantasy relevant without the inevitable
Gore injury). My money is on James getting enough action as a 3rd down back to make him
worth your while as a late round addition, especially in PPR leagues. Key stat: Gore very quietly
finished in the top 10 in RB fantasy scoring, despite having yet another single-digit TD total.
Seattle Seahawks
Marshawn Lynch has become one of the true feature backs in the NFL and does not come off the
field in any situation. However, there are some interesting things afoot in the Emerald City as
Lynch's hard-charging running style makes him susceptible to breakdown. The team has invested
in two young backs in recent drafts, and each could easily step in and perform as well as Lynch if
given the chance, in my opinion. Neither is worth considering as part of an RBBC, but an injury
to the proven Lynch could place the two young bucks in a competition "time share" as they see
who can grab a hold of the job. Watch for rookie Christine Michael to possibly unseat Robert
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Turbin as the backup, and for that guy to be a must-have handcuff to Lynch in the latter parts of
your draft. Key stat: Marshawn Lynch was tied for the league lead with ten 100-yard rushing
games in 2012.
St. Louis Rams
Steven Jackson is gone after eight seasons as the bell cow in St. Louis. And Eric Dickerson and
Marshall Faulk are not walking in that door any time soon. This situation is one that should
eventually resemble a RBBC as there is no one that really is ready and able to carry the load at
RB. The most experience belongs to speedy Darryl Richardson. who most think will be the
starter. Isaiah Pead was touted last year as a good all-around runner, but he showed nothing and
he will be suspended for week 1, putting him a step behind already. Rookie Zac Stacy is a smaller
but more powerful back, and then there is 2nd-year guy Terence Ganaway that is a mauler. The
oldest of these guys is 23, so none have experience or any track record, so it will be a crapshoot.
The smart money is on the limited experience that Richardson has shown, but he is being drafted
much higher than is merited for this situation; the better value may be to roll the dice on Stacy
late in the draft, but none of these guys instill confidence as possible fantasy contributors in 2013.
Could it be that the best fantasy RB for the 2013 Rams is not yet on the roster? Key stat: Steven
Jackson's season average over the last eight seasons (1183 rush yards, 49 receptions) is more than
twice as much as the combined career totals of every RB on the Rams' current roster (combined
527 rush yards, 27 rec.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The arrival of rookie Doug Martin last year was a breath of fresh air atop the fantasy RB
rankings as a new feature back came out of the woodwork right from the start. His every-down
skill set and apparent durability means that there will be no time share or RBBC in Tampa.
Bruising LeGarrette Blount did take some touches away from Martin in 2012, but he is gone and
the newly-signed Peyton Hillis offers only slightly more competition for touches in all phases of
the game -- and aside from Hillis, no other threats exist on the roster right now with just some
other unproven youngsters on the depth chart. There will be no RBBC here that should
significantly alter Martin's position in the top 3 of every fantasy draft. Key stat: No one had a
higher percentage of his team's total rushing yards than did "The Muscle Hamster" in 2012
(79%)
Tennessee Titans
Everyone knows that Chris Johnson has freakish speed, and showed he could be an every down
back and even run the ball inside the tackles and in the red zone. There is no one currently on the
roster that can realistically challenge Johnson for touches anywhere on the field. Yet every
season we seem to hear about the team having another big back that will share time and perhaps
be the goal line back. This year it is former Jet 1000-yard rusher Shonn Greene and former Jaguar
Jalen Parmele - yawn. This is yet another situation where a healthy stud RB will not come off the
field because he is too dangerous. With the commitment to the running game in Tennessee, two
new interior linemen and a viable threat at both QB and WR for the first time in years, either of
these backup guys would be a respectable fantasy starter if Chris Johnson is out of the lineup for
any reason; they could even split time evenly if asked to tote the rock fulltime...but neither should
see much action in 2013 otherwise. Key stat: Chris Johnson received 27 carries in the red zone in
2012
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Washington Redskins
That paragraph I wrote for rookie Doug Martin could easily apply to rookie Alfred Morris in
Washington. There is no one to compete for carries, and he is playing for a coach that will run the
ball a lot. So if there is no RBBC...who is the handcuff? Roy Helu is more talented, but only
seems to be able to last a few games before going down with some nagging injury; my money is
on the dependable (read: boring) Evan Royster, but I would think that Helu would be a better
fantasy performer if called upon to start. Key stat: The Redskins led the NFL with over 2700
rushing yards in 2012, with all but 100 yards coming from rookies.
So there you have it – a glimpse at every situation at RB in the NFL for 2013 – many of which
may involve the sharing of duties in the backfield to some extent. The last few years have
brought many fantasy contributors at RB into the league, and they (along with a few from the
2013 draft) served to add to the logjam at RB in many NFL depth charts. In time many of these
players in RBBCs might evolve into feature backs, but at this time there is a load of chaos - and
thus a lot more options – for the fantasy owner. Try to take into account all the situations and
risks in each city to best assess whether the rumors of a feature back or of a RBBC are more
likely to be true or speculation. Remember, anyone can grab the stud feature back in round 1 of
their fantasy draft – it takes no style or thought. Where you will really make hay is if one can
make some educated guesses on draft day as to which of the guys in a RBBC can have the
biggest impact on your lineup. Hopefully this detailed listing of the potential time-share
situations in the NFL 2013 will help you make those educated guesses on your draft day. Good
luck!
~ end ~
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Get Out the Handcuffs!
July 26, 2013
by: John Cooney
In the ever-changing landscape of fantasy football, you have to work and re-work philosophies
annually to stay at the top of your game. Years ago drafting a quarterback in the first round was
the norm. The game evolved and it became imperative that a fantasy GM target and lock up a
“stud” running back, a feature back with any first draft selection. Top tiered running backs were
off the board in the first two rounds. The past few campaigns, with the collegiate influence of the
spread offense and the installation of 3-5 wide receiver sets, NFL coaches have gone the creative
(and practical) route regarding the running back, moving away from the traditional workhorse
ball carrier and onto the quick and shifty pass-catching version. Out on the flanks depth and
diversity at wide receiver has also benefitted greatly by the move to dynamic aerial assault
packages installed by pro coaches. Today, in 2013, the first round of a fantasy draft is wide open
and an argument can be made for just about any skill position as a viable number one draft
option. Obviously, the one fantasy football stalwart that has experienced decreasing value is the
feature running back. The majority of pro organizations now employ a committee approach in
the ground game for various reasons. The organizational and performance success of the
committee approach in the backfield has had a ripple effect on other positions as well, such as
wide receiver and even tight end. Identifying the top performer is hard enough in a committee;
setting the order of the reserves is an even cloudier task. The “back-up” running back, or the
traditional “hand-cuff” back has become harder to identify since halfbacks now split carries,
specializing in down-distance situations and rotating on and off the field for pass-protect duties.
The term “starter” in a Sunday lineup carries little weight as to the amount of snaps a back will
see in a contest. The same can be said regarding the wide receiver position. Thanks to the
importing of the “spread” or “pistol” offense, many teams now sport a 1 and 1A receiver within
a 3, 4 or even 5 receiver rotation. There’s also the slot receiver who is often a PPR gem though
he may not be much of a yardage or TD threat. And don’t forget the long-balling speedster
running 7s and 9s downfield and giving fantasy coaches instant offense and points.
The football is truly being shared by many these days. The practice of carrying a particular
running back’s “hand cuff” on a fantasy roster, in case of emergency, requires more thought than
just grabbing “the next guy in line”. With the plethora of pass packages installed and sets of pass
catchers rotating on almost every snap, defining the “guy” who will be the man should the #1
wideout meet with disaster is a matter of study and understanding a team’s offensive philosophy
and offensive coordinator’s tendencies, along with the skills of the entire stable of receivers.
Heck, even the tight ends should be considered as possible “hand cuffs” for certain WRs.
Let’s take an early look at the probable hand cuff situations on each team. There are still a few
clear-cut starters with an immediate reserve waiting in the wings, both at running back and wide
receiver. But many rosters are set up with deep (more than two) multi-talented players that can
make a fantasy football owner proud.
Key:
(R) = rookie
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Buffalo Bills
RB Starter: CJ Spiller; Handcuff: Fred Jackson
WR Starters: Steve Johnson, TJ Graham ; Handcuff: Robert Woods (R)
Buffalo has a new run-first offensive scheme in-place and the backfield roles are reversed from
2012. Spiller is the mercurial playmaker and Fred Jackson assumes the highly qualified
reinforcement job. FJax can do all the things Spiller is capable of, but at a full level below in
speed and explosiveness. Jackson can surely give fantasy footballers a confident bridge over
injured waters should Spiller miss any appreciable time; he brings full service skills.
Robert Woods was drafted as a hedge against the usually nicked-up Steve Johnson. Woods
comes to the Bills more pro-ready than fellow rooks Da’Rick Rogers and Marquise Goodwin,
and has a solid opportunity to actually start opposite Johnson come opening day. Johnson is
slated for the slot, which is where Woods would slide to in the event of a Steve Johnson mishap.
Miami Dolphins
RB Starter: Lamar Miller; Handcuff: Daniel Thomas/Mike Gillislee (R)
WR Starter: Mike Wallace/Brian Hartline; Handcuff: Rishard Matthews
Some fantasy football experts are waving caution flags in front of the prospects of Lamar Miller
gaining the starting gig in Miami. Let’s put that to rest as Miller is well-suited to not only win
the Dolphin feature backfield role but excel as the top in it. Three year veteran Daniel Thomas
will get first shot at handling Miller touches as his replacement, but rookie Mike Gillislee is as
pro-ready as any back in this year’s college draft and is already Thomas’ equal on the field…
heck he’s better right now. Gillislee would surely share the workload with Lamar Miller
sidelined, and his solid all-around play would be hard to keep off the field. Gillislee is the better
long-term ‘cuff for Miller.
Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline are pegged as the Miami top wideouts. Miami GM Ireland has
done an excellent job revamping a weak receiving corps, signing Wallace while also adding
Armon Binns, Brandon Gibson and Marvin McNutt. Rishard Matthews quietly figures into the
long-term handcuff here. Matthews goes into camp having already spent a full season working in
the Joe Philbin offense and building familiarity with QB Ryan Tannehill. Miami runs a west
coast scheme and Matthews is a sharp route runner that fits the WCO. He possesses the ability to
play outside, between the hash marks or in the slot, and is a fine after-catch runner.
New England Patriots
RB Starters: Stevan Ridley; Handcuff: Shane Vereen
WR Starter: Danny Amendola; Handcuff: Julian Edelman
Shane Vereen has had a sharp rise in draft popularity since the unfortunate events involving TE
Aaron Hernandez. Vereen is already viewed as a bonafide TOUCH-15 back, which more than
qualifies him as a Ridley handcuff. Vereen is the hands portion of the Patriot backfield, but make
no mistake he can take handoffs and be very effective. Stevan Ridley owners MUST make the
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effort to handcuff with Vereen. His excellent route running and sure hands will go a long way
with a Ridley loss.
The offense is a-changin’ in New England and the receiver unit has gone through a major
makeover. Danny Amendola is a Wes Welker clone (a bit bigger and faster), but an oft-injured
one. The Patriots need to rely on a veteran that knows the program and has the confidence of QB
Tom Brady. There are currently 7 new faces lining up at wideout; Brady knows where to find
Edelman. He is a fearless pass-catcher that is explosive in space and has the get-away gear to
turn in big plays. It would be a seamless transition from Welker to Amendola to Edelman should
the situation present itself.
New York Jets
RB Starter: Chris Ivory; Handcuff: Mike Goodson
WR Starter: Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill; Handcuff: Jeremy Kerley, Clyde Gates
New York unloaded plodding running back Shonn Greene this off-season and reloaded by
signing former Saints’ reserve Chris Ivory. Ivory is a nice blend of speed and power, and runs
with a reckless abandon. That head-on style often sends Ivory to the sidelines with various
injuries. His handcuff is sure to see game action, and Mike Goodson has proven willing and able
to get the job done. Goodson is a suburb pass receiver out of the backfield and possesses above
average speed. In small samplings while in Carolina Goodson showed he can perform at a high
level. Like Ivory, Goodson also finds it difficult to stay on the field, often nicked up or out for
stretches at a time. But in a limited handcuff type role, Mike Goodson can help fantasy coaches
bridge the Ivory gap.
The Jets’ wide receiver situation is lacking depth and overall pro-level skills. Holmes is always
on the mend and his dedication is quite iffy. Stephen Hill is still has a long way to go toward
being a competent set of hands; he is physically gifted but very unpolished. Whether it’s
performance or injury related, Clyde Gates and Jeremy Kerley will see plenty of snaps in 2013.
Gates is much like Hill in that he is a fast but rough-around-the-edges wideout. He is mostly just
a one-trick deep threat, and that fills any Stephen Hill lapses. Kerely is arguably New York’s
most complete wide receiver. Kerley is best suited as a slot receiver, but has shown to be
efficient in any role the Jets’ coaches have thrust upon him. Kerely is surely NOT a sexy fantasy
choice, but will probably be New York’s top receiver even without a starting role. Handcuffing a
Jet wideout is a futile expenditure of energy, but in a PPR environment, Kerely is a decent
option.
Baltimore Ravens
RB Starter: Ray Rice; Handcuff: Bernard Pierce
WR Starter: Torrey Smith/Jacoby Jones; Handcuff: Tandon Doss, Dennis Pitta (TE)
The Ray Rice/ Bernard Pierce duo is one of the most defined handcuff scenarios in the game for
2013. The consistent talk out of Baltimore is that Pierce is going to actually cut in on Rice’s
workload by design. The former Temple star is a rugged, downhill rusher with power and a nose
for the goal line. Pierce doesn’t offer a whole lot in the passing game, and surely doesn’t come
close to matching Rice’s receiving skills, but he is a TD threat inside the 10 yard line. The
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Ravens are planning on going more up-tempo this season, and that usually translates to more
snaps and more plays on offense. There may be enough footballs going around to elevate Pierce
to a FLEX role in fantasy. Regardless, he is a pure handcuff for Ray Rice and a must get for Rice
owners.
After allowing Anquan Boldin to walk Baltimore did little to fill the vacancy from the outside.
Boldin’s move to ‘Frisco opened the full-time door for Jacoby Jones, but Jones has shaky hands
and is a poor route runner who has butter-fingered his way OUT of starting chances before. It is
time for Tandon Doss, a sure-handed and savvy route runner, to step up and become a viable
option for QB Joe Flacco. Doss steps into a heavy snap count should Torrey Smith miss action
due to injury time or Jones again fails to impress with expanded snaps. He is best framed to
inherit Boldin’s route tree. It is now or never for Tandon Doss, and handcuff in Baltimore’s
receiving corps. Dennis Pitta is a creative way of handcuffing in the Ravens wideout situation. If
your league combines wide receivers and tight ends as one position, Pitta makes for an excellent
‘cuff for any Baltimore starting pass catcher. Pitta is already slated to pick up much of Boldin’s
inside routes and will even lineup outside in some formations. League rules permitting, it makes
sense to think outside the box and set up a handcuff with a player most likely to lead a team in
targets. Dennis Pitta is a sharp alternative as a Raven wideout handcuff.
Cincinnati Bengals
RB Starter: Benjarvus Green-Ellis; Handcuff: Giovani Bernard (R)
WR Starter: AJ Green; Handcuff: Marvin Jones
Cincy’s Benjarvus Green-Ellis sadly doesn’t receive the praise and respect he deserves because
he is a throw-back, old time thumper. BJGE gives everything he has on every take of the
football. Unfortunately he lacks the flash and dash required of today’s NFL tailbacks. GreenEllis has topped 1000 yards rushing in two of his last three seasons and banged out 30 scores in
the process. Problem is he does little in the passing game and he gained those ground yards at
just barely 4 a carry. Enter rookie Giovani Bernard, a fleet rusher and smooth pass catcher with
an accomplished college resume. OC Jay Gruden has mentioned that Bernard is more than just a
change of pace back, able to carry the full bag of mail as a pro. Green-Ellis is still the two-down
banging starter for now, but a few more runs with 30 yard potential finishing at four yards by
BJGE and Giovani Bernard gets to prove Gruden right or wrong. Bernard is a solid handcuff;
clear and clean and ready to show.
Marvin Jones showed a little of his potential as a rookie last season. He got his starts when
fellow freshman wide receiver WR Mohamed Sanu went down with an injury. Sanu had
“won” his starting gig early on when Jones was down for the count. While Sanu is projected as a
starter and it would seem he would benefit most by an AJ Green mishap, JNES IS THE Bengal
wideout to cuff with the marvelous Green. Sanu can’t come close to running the 9, 7 and 8 routes
(deep routes) the way AJ Green does; Jones can. And the fact that he is a youngster shouldn’t
carry that much weight with the Bengal brass… AJ Green lit it up as a rook, Sanu was a
freshman starter in 2012 as was Jones. If Green is your receiver of color, seek out Marvin Jones
and cuff ‘em.
Cleveland Browns
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RB Starter: Trent Richardson; Handcuff: not on the roster
WR Starter: Josh Gordon; Handcuff: Travis Benjamin
Trent Richardson gave his fanball owners plenty of practice in handcuffing last season as he
battled through a plethora of injuries. Problem in Cleveland is the current stable of backs behind
T-Rich are quite unimpressive and hardly ones to count on should Richardson go down.
Montario Hardesty always seems to be coming back from injury himself, and Brandon
Jackson (also a red-cross wearer) wasn’t all that impressive when healthy. Then there’s Dion
Lewis or Chris Ogbonnaya… nuff said! Looking for a ‘cuff for Richardson, seek your answer
from another team.
As shallow as the Browns’ running back stable appears to be, the wide receiver corps efforts to
rival the backfield for lack of depth. It is a young group, led by Josh Gordon (suspended for
games 1 and 2) and Greg Little. All eyes are on Travis Benjamin to pick up the deep ball slack
for Gordon whiles he serves his 2-gamer. Benjamin is fast but small. Devone Bess is pure slot
material, so Benjamin would be the one wideout to utilize as a cuff in Cleveland for WR
purposes. With Coach Chudzinski and OC Norv Turner in charge, the football should be heading
downfield more often, matching the strengths of QB Brandon Weeded and Benjamin. It’s not
pretty, but there is some potential for a big play or two if/when Travis Benjamin is getting
regular reps.
Pittsburgh Steelers
RB Starter: LeVeon Bell (R); Handcuff: Isaac Redman
WR Starter: Antonio Brown; Handcuff: Jerricho Cotchery
Rookie LeVeon Bell is practically being handed the starter gig in Pittsburgh. Bell is a big back
with average speed and decent hands. The closest reserve the Steelers have on the roster that
could semi-fill those skills without Bell is holdover Isaac Redman. Redman is a plodding runner
that can be a chain-mover as a receiver out of the backfield. However he lacks vision and any
sense of elusiveness and would need a high volume of touches to be fantasy relevant.
It may be prudent to grab Emmanuel Sanders as Antonio Brown’s handcuff if you can manage it
and Sanders falls deep into the draft. However, should that scenario work out, Jerricho Cotchery
is next man up in Pittsburgh. Cotchery is a very limited slot receiver with little breakaway
ability. Pitt OC Todd Haley’s dink-n-dunk play calling wouldn’t hurt Cotchery if forced into
fulltime service. Rookie Markus Wheaton is an option, but he missed all of the off-season
programs thanks to an Oregon State late graduating class, and Wheaton is far behind in playbook
recognition. In a strict PPR value, Jerricho Cotchery is the Steeler WR handcuff (for now).
Houston Texans
RB Starter: Arian Foster; Handcuff: Ben Tate (and a heads-up on rookie Dennis Johnson)
WR Starter: Andre Johnson; Handcuff: DeAndre Hopkins (R)
Here’s an easy ne for fantasy footballers to identify; Ben Tate is THEE guy to grab if Arian
foster is on your roster. End of story! Tate has teased in small samplings of his work, and Foster
has loads of miles on his wheels. The workhorse back looked “worked” at times last season…
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Ben Tate needs to be behind YOUR Arian Foster; make it your mission to nab Tate before other
owners “hold you hostage”. For those who like rolling the dice, undrafted rookie tailback Dennis
Johnson is an exciting hidden gem.
Finally! The Texans took the plunge and drafted a wideout capable of supporting star Andre
Johnson as well as potentially become his successor. DeAndre Hopkins is now lining up
opposite Andre Johnson as the starter, and he makes for a super handcuff to AJ this season; right
now! Houston’s HC Gary Kubiak has talked up Lestar Jean, DeVier Posey and Keshawn
Martin. Posey has maturity issues and Martin lacks size and is more of a slot receiver. Hopkins
is a polished route runner, sure handed and a redzone demon. AJ just looks like a star on the
down-tick, regardless of the 100 catch 2012, and Johnson surely hasn’t been the paragon of
health over the years.
Indianapolis Colts
RB Starter: Ahmad Bradshaw; Handcuff: Vick Ballard
Vick Ballard wastes little time getting his pads turned up-field and contributes out of the
backfield. He gained valuable starting experience last season, and with the brittle-footed Ahmad
Bradshaw the only thing standing between Ballard and 300+ touches, The Indy sophomore back
is a solid handcuff for Bradshaw. QB Andrew Luck was quick to mention Ballard’s name when
asked what players need to get the ball more. Just sayin’.
WR Starter: Reggie Wayne; Handcuff: Darrius Heyward-Bey
The savvy veteran Wayne was moved all over the formations last season and his catch total was
impressive; his TDs not so much. Indy coaches are intrigued with DHB and his size/speed
package. He brings a lot of Pierre Garcon back to the lineup, and has skills that Donnie Avery
provided last year but with size. He still has hands issues, but so did Avery last season. Without
Wayne on the field the Colts’ coaches need to get playmaking ability jump-started; Darrius
Heyward-Bey can bring solid run-after-catch ability, like Garcon, and finally plays with a true
NFL star caliber QB in Andrew Luck.
Jacksonville Jaguars
RB Starter: Maurice Jones-Drew; Handcuff: Justin Forsett
WR Starter: Justin Blackmon (suspended), Cecil ShortsIII;
Shipley/Denard Robinson (R)
Handcuff:
Jordan
In many ways Justin Forsett can be likened to a poor-man’s Maurice Jones-Drew. Lately, MJD
can be compared to a poor man’s MJD, too. Forsett has gotten the job done when called upon
both in Houston and Seattle. Banking on any Jacksonville players in 2013 is a very risky
proposition. Having to rely on a Jaguar understudy as a fantasy football fallback plan is throwing
money into the fire.
The Jags passing offense, challenged as it is, starts the year with one of the few weapons on the
roster suspended, with Blackmon gone for four games. Cecil Shorts is a fine receiver, a sharp
route runner with underrated after-catch ability and sticky hands that excels inside the hash
marks but can take to the flanks if called upon. Looking to help out in the slot and as a stand-in
at receiver is Former Bengal Jordan Shipley. Shipley has already made a bit of a mark as a pro,
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hauling in 52 footballs back in 2010, his rookie campaign. Shipley is not fast, but offers a decent
target from the slot (6’-190) and finds open seams in the middle of the field. Ship adds up to a
better PPR option should his handcuff status rise to full-time player.
WILDCARD: Rookie “athlete” Denard Robinson might actually be the best handcuff for either
Jones-Drew or one of the receivers. Robinson is a supremely gifted athlete, having been a
starting collegiate QB at Michigan and a dual-threat to run or pass. Robinson is track-star fast
and elusive. The Jags are conjuring up creative ways to utilize his abundant athletic ability by
not pegging him in a particular position; they like listing Robinson as ATH (athlete). Should
MJD, Blackmon or Shorts make their way to the sidelines for extended periods of time, it is a
fair bet that new Coach Gus Bradley would want to get the “athlete” Robinson on the field and
the football in his hands, any way possible. Eyes on Denard Robinson and his usage in the preseason.
Tennessee Titans
RB Starter: Chris Johnson; Handcuff: Shonn Greene (and eyes on Darius Reynaud)
WR Starter: Kenny Britt; Handcuff: Nate Washington
Don’t allow the signing of former NY Jet starting running back Shonn Greene spook you off
Chris Johnson (if you have eyes for the moody Titan halfback). The former CJ2K (I hate that!) is
‘the man’ in Tennessee as far as first team snaps and touches. Greene is the anti-change-of-pace
back and the occasional goal line crasher. Johnson’s ability to house it from anywhere on the
field makes him too valuable on an offense that needs playmakers. However, Greene would be
the go-to rusher in a Chris Johnson crisis, and he’d do an OK job. Greene runs behind a line that
can run-block, and his between the tackles style fits well.
Darius Reynaud is a deep thinker’s option here. Reynaud is a converted college wide receiver
from West Virginia that can get after it with speed. Reynaud returned three kicks/punts for TDs
last season, and could very well see pass-down snaps if Shonn Greene is suddenly the starting
runner in the offense. If forced into regular action, chances are Reynaud wouldn’t need many
touches to put up instant-offense fantasy stats and points.
Kenny Britt is working to shed his Kenny Britt-le label. The talented (and troubled) wideout has
famously struggled to stay on the field, prompting the Titans to invest in a potential playmaker
like Kendall Wright. Wright has secured a starting spot opposite Britt, moving veteran Nate
Washington to a supporting role. Washington has been somewhat of a playmaker himself, and
surely has the chops to handle a full route tree if Britt’s health or behavior comes crashing down
again. Nate Washington is first off the bench for the Titans in an emergency, and a fine fantasy
option in the handcuff role.
Denver Broncos
RB Starter: Monte Ball (R); Handcuff: Ronnie Hillman (Knowshon Moreno)
WR Starters: Eric Decker/Demaryius Thomas; Handcuff: Wes Welker
To start training camp sophomore tailback Ronnie Hillman is listed top of the depth chart. Given
time for rookie Monte Ball to show his wares, and Hillman’s lack of ability to pass protect, that
situation will change and Hillman will fall to handcuff status before opening day. Hillman is a
fast and shifty runner with good pass receiving skills but light on his feet… too light so far. He is
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easily knocked off his pins and shows little power. Ball is the stronger runner and should get the
first team calls; Hillman offers a stop-gap option for fantasy players. With a Ball injury,
Knowshon Moreno would most likely be the long-term option. The problem with Moreno is he
cannot remain healthy through an expanded role in the running game. Moreno gives his QB
more confidence as he can pass block, catch footballs well enough and run tough.
Funny as it looks, Wes Welker is the ultimate handcuff this season. Tall and talented tandem
pass catchers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are the top two Manning options and will
dominate snaps and targets. However, both have exhibited clear evidence of being a bit fragile in
their young careers, and a trip to the trainer’s room by either would catapult Welker to top-5
fantasy receiver status. Welker is likely to be drafted too high to warrant being utilized as a
handcuff for Thomas or Decker, but if the Slot Machine drops in drafts, best to move him up a
round or two and cover your Bronco wideout butt.
Kansas City Chiefs
RB Starter: Jamaal Charles; Handcuff: Cyrus Gray/Knile Davis (R)
WR Starter: Dwayne Bowe; Handcuff: Donnie Avery
The chiefs will be looking hard and long for Jamal Charles backup this training camp. The new
regime led by GM Dorsey and Coach Reid selected RB Knile Davis in this year’s draft. Because
he is a product of the new staff, Davis will get every chance to rise up the depth charts. However,
second year rusher Cyrus Gray actually has the set of skills that fit the coach Reid requirements
for running backs. Gray has above average speed, is a very good pass receiver, played in an uptempo offense in college and also runs with good vision and footwork. Neither Davis nor Gray
has proven to be overly durable in college, but Gray returned to action quickly and without a loss
of performance quality. Davis has yet to show a return to pre-injury form, running tentatively
and without conviction. In a camp battle, look for Cyrus Gray to shine in the Coach Reid new
WCO-Pistol scheme and become a viable Jamal Charles handcuff for 2013.
Dwayne Bowe is the big dawg in the KC receiving pound. The player to grab as a plan-B tool in
case of emergency is Donnie Avery. Jon Baldwin might seem to be the logical choice here, given
his size similarity to Bowe, but Avery was hand-picked by Coach Reid to come on board and
join the club. Coach Reid and GM Dorsey see a value in the former Ram/Colt receiver. Avery is
fast but brings inconsistent hands and has a rather extensive injury track record. Last season was
a breakout campaign of sorts for Avery, playing with Andrew Luck while sharing the football
with Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton. He finds himself in a similar situation at Kansas City. He’d
likely lead the team in catches if a Bowe boo-boo happened.
Oakland Raiders
RB Starter: Darren McFadden; Handcuff: Latavius Murray (R)
WR Starter: Denarius Moore; Handcuff: Rod Streater
The Raiders needed to find a stand-in or RB Darren McFadden and may have found a rough-cut
gem in rookie Latavius Murray. Murray is a taller styled halfback like McFadden (6’3 to DMC’s
6’1). The former Central Florida star is straight-line fast, cashing in his 4- time at a consistent
4.39 clip. Like McFadden, Murray is adept at catching the football out of the backfield and can
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run deeper patterns, but is at this best taking a swing or screen and getting north. Yes, ex-Jaguar
Rashad Jennings is in the Raider fold but he lacks the potential explosiveness of Murray, who
scored 19 TDs last year at UCF and averaged 5.4 a carry for his college career. Don’t let his 6th
round draft pedigree get in the way, this is a fine handcuff for the always injured Darren
McFadden.
Denarius Moore is a lot like Darren McFadden in that he is fast, a playmaker and a frequent flyer
on the injury reports. Much is expected of Moore this season, viewed as Oakland’s WR1. A
surprise performer for the Raiders last season at wideout was then-rookie Rod Streater.
Undrafted in 2012, Streater walked on at Oakland and found his way to 39 receptions and 3 TDs.
His 6’2 frame gives probable Raider QB Matt Flynn a visible target, and it is his size and onfield work that prompted the Raider to let another size-receiver walk, Darrius Heyward-Bey.
Streater is a solid 4.5 guy but plays fast with the football in his hands. He’s not a pure handscatcher, using his body too often to bring the ball in but seems to pull it off well enough. With a
Moore mishap, Rod Streater bolts to an Oakland first look from Flynn, and makes an excellent
handcuff.
San Diego Chargers
RB Starter: Ryan Mathews; Handcuff: Danny Woodhead
WR Starters: Danario Alexander; Handcuff: Vincent Brown
Disappointing RB Ryan Mathews has a nicked up history and an inconsistent pro record thus far.
His understudy stands a good chance of seeing quality time due to injury or performance issues.
A common characteristic of the Charger running backs is that they all catch the football.
Between Mathews, Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead (in NE last season), the current top 3
San Diego backs combined for 128 receptions in 2012. Danny Woodhead was brought in as a
free agent by the new coaching staff, led by Mike McCoy. There’s a reason… and Woodhead
will be utilized if Mathews fails to impress. Ronnie Brown is still in the mix, but when a new
boss brings in his own players, they will play when opportunity appears.
One thing you can say about the San Diego top receivers… they are injury prone. Danario
Alexander made it through an abbreviated season for him healthy but has 5 knee operations in
the bag. Malcom Floyd always ends up with some malady in the season and Vincent Brown is
coming back from a 2012 pre-season broken ankle. The Chargers were hasty in placing Brown
on season-ending IR last season as he seemed to be ready to go later in the year. Well, he’s ready
now. Brown is a sure-fire handcuff for either Alexander or Floyd. While not as big as those two
wideouts, Brown does hit the 6’ mark and is a crisp route runner with quality hands. The 2011
3rd round choice is an excellent sleeper selection this year, let alone a solid handcuff.
Dallas Cowboys
RB Starter: DeMarco Murray; Handcuff: Joseph Randle (R)
WR Starter: Dez Bryant; Handcuff; Dwayne Harris
Cowboys’ tailback DeMarco Murray and injury report seem to go hand-in-hand. Dating back to
his college days, Murray is an injury waiting to happen. Dallas let another injury prone back
walk this off-season, Felix Jones and replaced him with 2013-5th round pick Joseph Randle.
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Randle is a versatile back that can take a handoff or catch out of the backfield. The former
Oklahoma State tailback rolled out 1,417 ground yards and 14 touchdowns last season and 1,216
yards and 24 touchdowns in 2011. He surely has a nose for the endzone. Randle started 31 of 39
games in college, and hauled in 108 passes for 917 yards and three touchdowns in three years
there. The Dallas rookie is built lean but has added some muscle in prep for the pro game. He’ll
need to learn to lower the pads better in the NFL; running upright leads to visits on the trainer’s
table, but he is sudden, hits his holes with speed and will break first contact. Owner Jerry Jones
has eyes for Randle and he is next man up behind the fragile DeMarco Murray
Dallas wideout Dez Bryant has arrived. WR2 Miles Austin also is talented but very fragile. The
WR3 carries an important role in the Cowboy passing game, and could be thrust into a bigger
role with Austin’s sensitive hamstrings always acting up. Dwayne Harris is a solidly built (5’10205) 6th rounder from the 2011 draft that has a chance to unseat Austin this season as a starter
opposite Bryant. While at East Carolina, Harris set the school record for receiving yards and
catches in a season (2010- 1,123 receiving yards and 101 receptions). He possesses average
wideout speed (4.5x40) but plays fast with the ball in his hands and has a running back
mentality, displaying excellent vision and balance. He’s tough to tackle once in the second level
of the defense. Already a fine kick and punt returner, Harris makes a terrific Cowboy receiving
handcuff given the lack of depth and the fragility of Miles Austin.
New York Giants
RB Starter: David Wilson; Handcuff: Andre Brown
WR Starter: Hakeem Nicks/Victor Cruz; Handcuff: Rueben Randle
David Wilson, explosive but inconsistent starter… Andre Brown, goal-liner with above average
running back skills. A pure handcuff situation here for the Giant backfield where Andre brown
doubles as a TD thief. Brown is a nice blend of size (6-225) and speed (4.37 official 40-time at
2009 Combine) and will run behind one the leagues most underrated o-lines again this season.
The former North Carolina tailback was excelling in his share-time work and goal line duties
until a broken leg ended the potential double-digit TD campaign. Brown is no stranger to the
injury come-back, having battled through a couple of fractured foot events his last year in
college. There’s no doubt of his capability in a limited but fantasy productive role as TD back
and third down participant. As well as being Wilson’s direct handcuff Andre Brown is expected
to see his share of carries, pushing his cuff value up a level in the FLEX tier.
Victor Cruz is signed on the dotted line, but still not thrilled with what he “settled” for. Hakeem
Nicks wants his share, too. The Giant starting wideouts are set with talent and production, but
they are far from a content bunch. Cruz openly suggests he took a home team discounted
contract and it doesn’t sit quite right with him. Nicks is famously nicks-ed up often during the
course of a schedule. Sitting quietly (for now) behind the scenes is the big talent of Rueben
Randle. Randle is a fantasy friendly blend of size, speed and readiness, having played a mature
brand of football while at LSU. In a small production sample from last season, Randle turned a
mere 19 receptions into 298 yards (15.7 YPR) and three TDs. 12 of those receptions and the 3
TDs came in the 5 games Nicks sat out. Randle was chosen in the 2nd round of last year’s draft
with plans of being a hedge against a Cruz contract confrontation and a quality fill-in if/when
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Hakeem Nicks meets up with another ailment. Standing 6’3- 210 and running a crisp 4.5x40,
Randle is a solid hands catcher and a stone-cold cuff-lock for either New York wideout.
Philadelphia Eagles
RB Starter: LeSean McCoy; Handcuff: Bryce Brown
WR Starters: DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin; Handcuff: Arrelious Benn
It could be said that LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown are RB1 and RB1-A for the Eagles
offense and new head coach Chip Kelly. Contrary to popular perception, Coach Kelly is a runfirst play caller… a creative run-first play caller, but still he’s run-first. His up-tempo demands (a
snap of the football every 20-24 seconds) translates into more plays from scrimmage, meaning
more touches for BOTH Eagle backs. No Doubt McCoy is the lead bird, and the fact that Brown
will see a healthy share of the touches anyway makes him a top-3 handcuff for 2013. Bryce
Brown is already a solid FLEX choice. Brown is big and extremely fast, but must learn to refrain
from bouncing every carry to the flanks. He will… CUFF HIM; CUFF HIM NOW!
Coach Kelly has been smitten with the skills and work of former Buccaneer Arrelious Benn.
Rarely has Kelly missed an opportunity to mention Benn’s name when shaping up the offense
and the passing options. Benn has truly struggled with injury in his short career, Benn is a
football player, period. He contributes on offense, in the return game and on special team cover
units. On offense, he brings good size (6’1) and blocking ability, with average game speed.
Before injury Benn was versatile and effective running reverses, bubble screens as well as
getting deep behind secondaries. In Philly, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson are 1 and 2, but
both have dealt with their own health miseries. Listening to Coach Kelly, Arrelious Benn
benefits most from time missed by either Jackson or Maclin. In a short window of action, Benn
can be fantasy effective.
Washington Redskins
RB Starter: Alfred Morris; Handcuff: Roy Helu
WR Starter: Pierre Garcon; Handcuff: Leonard Hankerson
Coach Shanahan finds another RB out of nowhere… same old story. Alfred Morris, projected as
a full back at last year’s draft ends up a 6th round, 1600 yard rusher for Coach Shanahan. History
shows that Shanny tends to run his backs into oblivion and fearlessly practices “next man up”
philosophy to the letter. The Redskin backfield is chocked full of possibilities, but none seem to
possess any special qualities… except Roy Helu. Helu is a speed halfback with excellent pass
catching ability and a breakaway gear. No other Washington mail carrier can say that. Helu has
been missed time with an assortment of woes, but so far has been cleared for duty and has been
seen running well and making cuts. If he can make it through training camp in one piece, Roy
Helu should out-play his mates and give Coach Shanahan another quality “next man”.
Pierre Garcon plays all-out football and it often leads to him nursing some sort of ding. His is
coming off a broken foot and shoulder woes from last season, so there is a health watch here.
Waiting in the wings and slowly but steadily making progress is Leonard Hankerson. The big
wideout from the U has flashed, but needs to learn how to be a pro and practice like one. He is in
that renowned third year zone, the season when WRs “get it”. Hankerson is the best physical
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wideout on the Washington roster, and his size/speed combo could explode if he see consistent
snaps. Eyes on training camp here… he could be a good one, and surely is a fix for a Pierre
Garcon trip to the sidelines.
Chicago Bears
RB Starter: Matt Forte; Handcuff: Michael Bush
WR Starter: Brandon Marshall; Handcuff: Earl Bennett
Bears RB Matt Forte is anxious to get it going under new head coach Marc Trestman. Trestman
is yakking it up hard about Forte’s role in the new offense. It would appear Matt Forte is in for a
career high for touches. Better prep for some wear-n-tear on the Bear back by tabbing Michael
Bush as his direct handcuff. Bush has made a career out of being a fantasy cuff, first backing up
fragile Darren McFadden in Oakland and now chipping in when Forte needs a break, or suffers
one. Bush does seem to be losing some of his burst, but he is solid inside the 10 yard line and a
capable safety valve receiver. The big, burly Bear back is a perfect stand-in for Matt Forte
owners.
Bears passer Jay Cutler likes working with players he’s familiar with. In Chicago he has two
receivers that he has had a long working relationship with; Brandon Marshall and Earl Bennett.
Bennett directly fills in if Marshall is out. Cutler’s college target would jump into the Marshall
role and Cutler knows how to find the former Vandy wideout. If you want to continue at least
getting the PPR value Marshall brings, then tab Earl Bennett in case of emergency. Marshall
runs more of the inside patterns, and Bennett would fit right in if Marshall were to go down.
Handcuff Marshall with Earl Bennett.
Detroit Lions
RB Starter: Reggie Bush; Handcuff: Joique Bell
WR Starter: Calvin Johnson; Handcuff: Nate Burleson
Word is that Mikel Leshoure isn’t wowing the Lion coaches these days. Leshoure is what he is, a
short yardage plodder with some goal line chops. Undrafted Joique Bell surprised everyone,
even his Detroit coaches, by excelling is a change-of-pace role and becoming a playmaking pass
receiver out of the backfield. Bell is getting the chance to be Reggie Bush’s sidekick, as both
possess similar skills; Bell isn’t as fast as Bush, but he can snag the rock with the best of them.
In fantasy football terms, Bell has more potential to provide points with less touches; quality
production. Joique Bell is suddenly a fantasy “want” and Reggie Bush owners need to make the
effort to ring up Bell.
No one can really fill the Mega-shoes of Calvin Johnson in Detroit. But in the NFL’s most passhappy offense, a handcuff to the top WR is a must. Gone is deep threat (and mental threat) Titus
Young. Returning from injury is veteran Nate Burleson. Burleson fills the short passing lanes
well, and a loss of Calvin Johnson would create a huge void in the deep attack. With Young gone
and only Ryan Broyles (slot man) the only other WR of quality on the roster, Nate Burleson
would get to line up outside and run the Megatron routes. Burleson has QB Matt Stafford’s trust,
and Stafford is a quirky passer that needs to feel good about where he is throwing the football
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and who he is tossing it to. He has good vibes with Burleson and the targets would be plentiful
given the opportunity. Cuff Calvin Johnson with the savvy play of Nate Burleson.
Green Bay Packers
RB Starter: Eddie Lacy (R), Johnathan Franklin (R); Handcuff: Alex Green
WR Starters: Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb; Handcuff: James Jones
Last season I asked the question regarding the Packer running back stable, “Is there such a thing
as HCBC; Hand Cuff By Committee”? One again, the answer is … In Green Bay, could be.
Even the lead role is foggy at this time. The Pack spent quality draft picks this off-season on top
halfbacks Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. Still on board is 2011 third round pick Alex
Green, who is finally back to health after rushing to return from knee surgery. Late season
rushing star Dujaun Harris and the failed James Starks are also hanging on. This is a wait and see
situation, as someone needs to take the lead and some must go; the backfield is far too crowded
at Lambeau. Most likely one of either Lacy or Franklin will win out, and the second place
finisher becomes the handcuff. Keep an eye on Alex Green; word is the Pack bosses are
shopping him. Green would be an excellent fit is several offenses around the league and at worst
would be a sharp looking handcuff to a lead tailback.
Green Bay is blessed with three top-flight wide receivers. Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson
continue to be ranked as the starters, with James Jones being a star third wheel. Jones found a
way to lead the NFL in TD receptions last season and is a must have handcuff for Cobb OR
Nelson owners. No need to get technical here… Aaron Rodgers is the passer and the offense if
explosive through the air. James Jones… CUFF ‘EM!
Minnesota Vikings
RB Starter: Adrian Peterson; Handcuff: Toby Gerhart
WR Starter: Greg Jennings; Handcuff: Jarius Wright
Calvin Johnson may be Megatron, but Adrian Peterson is just plain Super, man! What the heck
was that last season? Anyway, AP’s 2012 heroics may be hard to maintain in 2013, given the
heavy workload and the energy spent getting ready for the season. In 2011, when Peterson went
down, Toby Gerhart was excellent filling in, especially in the redzone. Gerhart is a clear-cut cuff
for Peterson owners. Oh! He’s nowhere near Adrian Peterson as a running back, but he bring sis
own qualities that can be quite fantasy friendly. He catches extremely well and gains chunks of
yards after the catch. And, he knows where the stripe is. Toby Gerhart… CUFF ‘EM Peterson
owners!
The Vikings’ top receiver Percy Harvin, is now their ex-receiver. Harvin now flies with the
Seahawks. New in town is former Packer star Greg Jennings. Jennings is a savvy vet but an oftinjured one it would be smart of owners who call upon Jennings’ services to “buy” some
insurance to CYA. A player that the Minnesota coaches have quietly praised this off-season,
which is a complete 180 from last season, has been sophomore wideout Jarius Wright. Wright is
an underrated slot receiver from Arkansas, possessing 4.42 x 40 speed. Some felt that drafting
the Razorback record-setter gave the Minnesota management some leverage in dealing with
Harvin. Now is his chance to payoff. Wright does bring some Harvin-like ability to the field and
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fills a void should Greg Jennings again deal with nagging groin and other ailments. Wright is
one to lock up in Minnesota.
Atlanta Falcons
RB Starter: Steven Jackson; Handcuff: Jacquizz Rodgers
WR Starters: Julio Jones/Roddy White; Handcuff: Harry Douglas
Really? Steven Jackson? This already potent offense just got a shot of pure veteran dedication
and warrior attitude. Jackson still has some gas left in the tank for one more hurrah. But the
clock is ticking and as far as running backs go, he’s now on borrowed time. The Falcons have
had shifty and versatile Jacquizz Rodgers in the nest for a couple of seasons now, and he is well
versed in the offense. Rodgers IS Steven Jackson on a smaller (much smaller) scale. He can
carry the rock, get to the flanks on screens and be an all-around producer. Rodgers doesn’t
possess breakaway speed but in an offense that now forces defenses to spread out and respect
wideouts Roddy White, Julio Jones and tight end Tony Gonzalez, all he needs is to hit the open
lanes and get what is in front of him, which at times is a lot of open field. Atlanta doesn’t have
much depth in the backfield, so Rodgers is the clear handcuff to Steven Jackson.
Harry Douglas is a 5th year vet that has had a few shining moments. But Douglas has been a bit
inconsistent when opportunity was there. He is a leaner target than Jones or White and has been
used mostly on deep routes. The coaches still like Douglas, fell confident with his skills and he
has the potential to be a fantasy star-in-relief with a loss of Julio Jones or Roddy White. The
offense just plays that way and is almost a perfect machine on paper right now. Harry Douglas is
the only name on the Falcon bench to call when cuffing Julio Jones or Roddy White. Do it!
Carolina Panthers
Starters: DeAngelo Williams/ Jonathan Stewart; Handcuff: DeAngelo Williams/ Jonathan
Stewart (Kenyon Barner (R)).
Every year it is the same thing; that backs up who in Carolina. Both Jonathan Stewart and
DeAngelo Williams mostly cancel each other out in fantasy drafts, it is almost impossible to use
one as the handcuff for the other unless an owner makes a concentrated effort to go back-to-back
with Williams and Stewart. Currently Stewart is struggling in his rehab of dual ankle surgeries.
Still, fanballers value Stewart over Williams in ADP this off-season. Forward thinking is to look
down to the RB3 on the Panthers roster, which most likely is rookie tailback Kenyon Barner.
Barner is a confident shifty rusher that is built small but runs with conviction. He is an excellent
pass receiver and would be a touch magnet is forced into action. There’s no telling how long
Stewart will last on the field once he does return, so Williams is a fine cuff if you gamble on
Stewart. But a good planner might want to bank of Kenyon Barner making waves and taking
advantage of an opportunity, given his pass catching advantage.
WR Starter: Steve Smith; Handcuff: Domenik Hixon/ Kealoha Pilares
Brandon LaFell looked primed to breakout in 2012, his third year as a pro. However, Brandon
La-fell flat in that effort and was more of the same; inconsistent and at times invisible. QB Cam
Newton also missed opportunities to get Lafell the football when it was there; poor reads. None
of the other Panther receivers inspire or excite fantasy owners to lock up behind rigged Steve
Smith. Ted Ginn, David Gettis, Armanti Edwards, Joe Adams? Ok, how about Domenik Hixon?
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Hixon has flashed for the Giants on occasion, and was a draft day target once of Coach Mike
Shanahan in Denver. He’s never shined with a full playbook, failing to grab top jobs before in
New York. Burt with another year of seasoning and a new start, Hixon might be a sneaky guff
for Smith; a weak one however. If there is adventure in your veins, and Steve Smith is in your
roster plans, check on the pre-season exploits of Kealoha Pilares. Pilares was a very productive
receiver at the University of Hawaii. Pilares has a running back build and a tough playing style,
much like Smith. In 2010, Pilares started all 13 games for the Warriors, finishing 2nd on the
team in catches with 88, netting 1306 yards (14.8 YPC) and a team-best 15 TDs. The tough
wideout runs a fast 4.4-forty and has experience lining up in the “x” or “Y” spots and even
started four games in college at running back. The 5’9-199 receiver is a hard worker, fearless and
could mimic Steve Smith in his absence. Kealoha Pilares…not a household name but Just
Sayin’.
New Orleans Saints
RB Starter: Darren Sproles; Handcuff: Pierre Thomas
WR Starter: Marques Colston; Handcuff: Lance Moore
Darren Sproles is coach Sean Payton’s do-it-all weapon. Sproles’ thrives in the passing game,
and his loss would create a huge void in a somewhat specialized position. New Orleans has one
player who has his own do-it-all skill set; Pierre Thomas. Thomas is the versatile constant in the
Saints’ backfield and will be drafted in the later rounds, making him a perfect handcuff for
Sproles owners. Thomas does everything good, not great. But he is effective and has a hound’s
nose for the goal line. His handcuff status could blossom into feature role with just one mishap to
either Sproles or plodding Mark Ingram, and Pierre Thomas should be a mid-round priority, as a
handcuff or a back with FLEX potential.
Somehow, even with his solid production, Lance Moore always seems to drop in drafts. Moore is
QB Drew Brees’ top one or two redzone targets annually. He is also PPR gold. But unless he is
featured in the pre-season, he will again drop far enough in drafts to gain handcuff status for top
Saints wideout Marques Colston. In his last four FULL seasons of play (2009 was injury
shortened) Moore has 32 TDs and 262 receptions. Currently with an ADP of 9.07 according to
fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Moore is a gimme as Marques Colston’s handcuff. DO IT!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RB Starter: Doug Martin; Handcuff: Michael Smith
WR Starter: Vincent Jackson; Handcuff: Tiquan Underwood
The football “experts” have been touting Miami U RB Mike James, a 6th round selection in 2013,
to assume the understudy role directly behind Muscle Hamster, Doug Martin. James is a mudder
with little to no breakaway gear. Undaunted, I have been singing the praises of 2nd season
tailback from Utah State, Michael Smith. Training camp rolls around and low-n-behold, Smith is
now slated to be Doug Martin “next up” guy. Good move, and a good move for fantasy
footballers who own Doug Martin to snatch up Michael Smith. Smith aced his Pro-Day 40 time
(4.33) and closed out his college career with consecutive 100-yard rushing games. He has fresh
legs as he was a second team back at Utah State, subbing for Robert Turbin, a top collegiate
rusher now in Seattle. Smith can provide numbers in the passing game, and while not a clean
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hands-catcher, he gets the job done and is a run-after-catch threat with big play speed. Not many
will be on the prowl for Michael Smith’s services, but Doug Martin guys… take note and cuff
‘em.
Vincent Jackson was everything the Bucs hoped he’d be when they inked him away from the
Chargers last season. Mike Williams, playing opposite VJax, returned to being a productive
fantasy WR2 and QB Josh Freeman, with game warts exposed, still set career highs in passing
yards (4065) and TDs (27). Reserve wideout Tiquan Underwood flashed some of what he is
capable of producing, hauling in 28 passes and 2 TDs. Underwood has suited up for three
different teams (JAX, NE an TB) in four seasons, and last year he reunited with college coach
Greg Sciano. The reunion brought positive results as Underwood looked comfortable and made
plays. The former Rutgers receiver scorched the 2009 Combine with a stellar 4.31-forty dash and
that speed could be a fantasy weapon if Underwood is pressed into full time service.
Arizona Cardinals
RB Starter: Rashard Mendenhall; Handcuff: Ryan Williams
WR Starter: Larry Fitzgerald; Handcuff: Michael Floyd
Arizona changed the guard at the coaching level (again), with aggressive Bruce Arians now at
the helm. Running backs in Arians offense need to do two things well; run the football and pass
protect. Former Steeler Rashard Mendenhall gets the first nod for starting duties, and Ryan
Williams would appear to have the inside track to spell Mendenhall when needed. Both backs
are returning from severe 2012 injuries, but Coach Arians has talked up both rushers. At the
same time, the Cardinals drafted two more running backs; Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington.
Taylor is a bit of a Mendenhall clone with better receiving skills and Ellington is a smaller,
speed back also with pass catching ability. This is a true training camp situation that needs to be
sorted out. Williams must prove to be fully healthy, Taylor and Ellington need to display the
ability to pass protect. As of now there is no clear handcuff to Rashard Mendenhall.
Larry Fitzgerald is still a top-8 wide receiver and should jump higher in his ranking with the
arrival of veteran passer Carson Palmer. The passing game, o-line willing, should see a marked
improvement over 2012 thanks to Palmer. But another reason for improvement is the added
experience for 2012 rookie Michael Floyd. Floyd is a beast of a receiver, measuring 6’3-225 and
able to run a consistent 4.4x40. He is being drafted as a lowly 10th rounder in pre-season mocks,
and that is gold for Fitzgerald owners. If Floyd is hanging that low in your draft or auction, pull
the trigger and hand cuff the potential star to Larry Fitz.
St. Louis Rams
RB Starter: Isaiah Pead/Daryl Richardson; Handcuff: Zac Stacy (R)
WR Starter: Chris Givens; Handcuff: Austin Pettis
As of now the Rams backfield is markedly undecided. The early depth charts have Daryl
Richardson as the RB1, but that is likely due to Isaiah Pead starting the season with a one-game
suspension. Rookie Zac Stacy is receiving love in mock draft, ranking above Pead. Both Pead
and Richardson are the sporty fantasy halfbacks and Stacy is the rugged grinder. In fantasy, big
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play backs pay off better than steady eddy bulls… the fast guys require less volume to realize
results. The loser of the Pead/ Richardson camp battle is the St. Louis handcuff.
Mike Quick and Chris Givens are the “exciting” new guys on the block. Austin Pettis is the
forgotten 3rd rounder of 2011. Yet Pettis is putting up a gallant effort to secure a starting gig for
2013. Pettis has been written up as clearly the best offensive player in off-season work so far. He
brings a solid work ethic, size and inside slot chops to the field. He is also now a familiar target
for QB Sam Bradford and in his third NFL season. Quick and Givens will get the early
opportunities to start, and any fantasy footballer owning either of those receivers should tag
Austin Pettis as a handcuff with the potential to be more than that.
San Francisco 49ers
RB Starter: Frank Gore; Handcuff: LaMichael James
WR Starter: Anquan Boldin; Handcuff: AJ Jenkins
Frank Gore is a warhorse; he is also now a very warhorse age 30. Gore missed a lot of OTA
work this past off-season, and coach Harbaugh admitted that his veteran runner has taken a lot of
NFL punishment. Gore’s understudy previously has been Kendall Hunter, but Hunter suffered an
injury last season and is making his way back. 2012 rookie LaMichael James brings much of
what Hunter provided, but at a slightly more explosive level of action. James, though small in
pro-RB terms, is used to handling full workloads as a runner. While at Oregon James was Coach
Chip Kelly’s main running back, often hitting it up through the interior of the line and doing so
with courage and at full speed. In addition to his traditional running back skills, James is an
excellent receiver. As the 49er offense molds around the move talents of QB Colin Kaepernick,
LaMichael James’ portfolio of versatility and speed will be needed more than that of the slowing
Gore. Got Gore? Get LaMichael James!
Another aging warrior suits up for the ‘Niners; Anquan Boldin. Boldin now becomes defacto
WR1 with the probable season-ending Achilles injury to Mike Crabtree. Boldin’s game is close
to that of Crabtree’s, running short slants and moving the chains. San Francisco’s receiver unit is
a bit thin, and the one player that has truly made the effort to step up is second year man AJ
Jenkins. Jenkins is a 2012 first-round pick who basically red-shirted his rookie campaign.
However, this off-season Jenkins attached himself to the hip of QB Colin Kaepernick, working
on timing, the playbook and route running. The hard work has to pay off for the speedy and
talented wideout. Jenkins is a low-risk-high-reward hand cuff to Anquan Boldin. His game is a
perfect complement to the power arm of Kaepernick.
Seattle Seahawks
RB Starter: Marshawn Lynch; Handcuff: Robert Turbin
WR Starters: Percy Harvin/Sidney Rice; Handcuff: Golden Tate
Robert Turbin, the rookie from Utah State, is a Marshawn Lynch clone. Going 5’10-222, Turbin
is chiseled, run tough and can catch out of the backfield. Lynch is now relegated to two-down
snaps in the evolving Seahawk offense, and Turbin has been slated to be the passing down/third
down backfield occupant. Seattle invested a draft pick on RB Christine Michael, but he lacks the
vision and the pass catching skills that Robert Turbin brings. Marshawn Lynch owners need to
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make it a point to call out Robert Turbin as a clean handcuff to the rough-n-tumble Seahawk
starter. Turbin may even be a slight upgrade, due to his passing game involvement.
Seahawk coach Pete Carroll must have a warm spot in his heart for height-challenged receiver.
Three of his top four receivers measure 5’11 or 5’10. On Sidney Rice at 6’4 breaks the Seattle
run on short wideouts. Percy Harvin, Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin all fit a mold; smaller, fast
and run-after-catch skilled. Rice and Harvin come to Seattle via the Minnesota pipeline, both
having been teammates there in 2009 and 2010. The ex-Vikings are the proposed starting wide
receivers in Seattle, and the set of hands to cuff to either of those pass catchers is Golden Tate.
Tate’s game is very similar to Harvin, especially in the various ways he handles the football.
Tate still needs to work on his route running and discipline to the playbook, but he is a
playmaker for sure, and works well with QB Russell Wilson. Sidney Rice has a rather large
injury file and Percy Harvin has battled migraines throughout his pro career. If Rice or Harvin
are slotted on your team, make a golden decision and hand cuff one of those playmakers with
another… Golden Tate.
The Wrap Up:
The smart and effective use of “handcuffing” reserve players to starters allows a fantasy football
owner to put him or herself in the position to BE lucky. Most feel you cannot control luck but, in
some cases, you can create your own advantageous situations. A successful fantasy season
requires good drafting, solid research, health of a roster and some pre-planned luck. Smart
handcuffing goes a long way in putting fantasy football GMs in fortunate predicaments. As this
amazing game evolves, fanballers at times have to be creative and effort to find an
unconventional cuff, such as a TE as a link to a starting WR. Circumstances and team
environment may mean that in the event of a major injury to a star RB or WR, the “next man up”
on the depth chart is not necessarily the team’s long-term solution. A fantasy owner might have
to dig down to the third running back on a roster as the true handcuff, such as the case in Tampa
Bay with Doug Martin and Michael Smith. It also pays to really know the rules of your league,
and plan ahead to utilize all the options your league allows. As training camps open and preseason games take place some cloudy scenarios will clear up (St. Louis, Carolina, Denver), some
will be determined due to injury and poor performance, and as always, there will be a few
surprises when teams break camp. Handcuff yourself to a successful 2013 season. Some hope
for luck… champions prepare to be lucky.
~ end ~
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Hangin' in the Red Zone 2013
July 26, 2013
by: John Holler
Of all the fantasy stats that make a player somebody that owners want to have on their
roster is how they perform in the red zone. There are certain players who consistently excel in
close and others who become invisible. When it comes to quarterbacks, the difference between a
guy like Drew Brees and Mark Sanchez is most evident in the red zone – where Brees is a stonecold killer and Sanchez is a warm turd.
There are a lot of factors that go into making star fantasy players. Many of them are
obvious. Red zone production isn’t something that gets promoted or widely circulated. It is part
of the game within the game and those who excel in the Red Zone are typically those who get
paid the 10-figure contracts.
What follows is a breakdown of the primary fantasy players and their effectiveness in the
red zone. The numbers are pretty self-explanatory, but we provide an analysis at the key fantasy
positions – both for what players did in 2012 and what they’ve done over the last three seasons.
For the purposes of analysis, a definition of the red zone needs to be provided. For
quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends and running backs in the receiving game, the red
zone is as its name is commonly known – inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. When a
quarterback drops to pass inside the 20-yard line, there can be a realistic expectation that the pass
could end up being a touchdown. When it comes to running the ball, it’s a different story. Even
Adrian Peterson isn’t expected to score when he gets a handoff at the 15-yard line. When it
comes to running backs and quarterbacks getting the ball, our definition of the red zone is the 5yard line. When an RB gets a handoff of a QB takes off out of the pocket from the 5-yard line in,
there is the realistic assumption that the plan on that play is to get points. So, as you look at the
red zone numbers keep in mind that when it comes to passing/receiving, the red zone is the 20yard line. When it comes to rushing, it’s the 5-yard line.
A final reminder: just as important as the players who are on the list as those who aren’t.
Some players (guys like DeSean Jackson) have proved to be almost meaningless in the red zone.
It doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be considered for being drafted, but it also tells you that, if he’s
going to score touchdowns, they will almost have to be long distance scores, because he isn’t
targeted or isn’t effective when the defenses are packed in the red zone.
QUARTERBACKS
2012 PASSING (Minimum 30 attempts)
Player-Att-Com-YD-TD-Int
Drew Brees 102-66-520-34-0
Matt Ryan 92-59-379-25-2
Peyton Manning 88-52-388-28-2
Matthew Stafford 87-41-309-15-4
Tom Brady 87-52-398-24-1
Eli Manning 84-38-281-18-1
Tony Romo 75-36-272-14-2
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Christian Ponder 75-44-284-18-3
Aaron Rodgers 75-47-350-26-0
Andy Dalton 74-42-296-20-0
Andrew Luck 73-37-15-2
Josh Freeman 72-40-330-21-2
Carson Palmer 70-38-233-14-1
Ben Roethlisberger 66-36-202-18-0
Philip Rivers 65-43-304-18-2
Sam Bradford 64-36-247-13-3
Ryan Fitzpatrick 60-34-270-16-3
Russell Wilson 59-35-261-18-0
Cam Newton 59-22-188-8-2
Joe Flacco 55-26-247-13-3
Matt Schaub 53-28-174-14-2
Brandon Weeden 53-25-226-6-2
Mark Sanchez 48-189-157-10-4
Ryan Tannehill 47-24-184-8-1
Jay Cutler 47-25-189-11-0
Michael Vick 46-21-157-9-2
Robert Griffin III 39-24-111-10-0
Chad Henne 38-19-127-7-2
Colin Kaepernick 32-15-97-5-1
Jake Locker 31-12-90-5-0
WHAT THE NUMBERS TELL US
• Nobody is even close to Brees in red zone effectiveness and scoring.
• Matty Ice is becoming a much better RZ passer.
• Stafford was his own worst enemy last year.
• Ponder threw as many RZ passes as Rodgers.
• Dalton is quietly turning into an elite red zone passer.
• More than half of Freeman’s RZ completions went for touchdowns.
• Rivers was effective in the red zone, but didn’t get the opportunities.
• Wilson was incredibly effective in the red zone.
• Newton is awful in the red zone.
• Flacco needs to improve in the red zone.
• Sanchez is always bad, but at his worst near the goal line.
• RG3 wasn’t allowed to throw the ball much in close.
• Kaepernick was little more than a dump-off caretaker inside the 20.
LAST THREE YEARS PASSING (Minimum 100 attempts)
Player-Att-Com-YD-TD-Int
Drew Brees 311-196-1,364-86-7
Tom Brady 271-164-1,217-80-4
Matt Ryan 269-154-1,048-66-4
Aaron Rodgers 239-153-1,060-75-2
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Eli Manning 232-118-839-50-9
Philip Rivers 210-117-846-50-6
Matthew Stafford 209-1030789-50-7
Ryan Fitzpatrick 205-112-837-52-8
Josh Freeman 205-120-919-52-6
Mark Sanchez 199-97-718-39-8
Ben Roethlisberger 188-97-661-42-5
Michael Vick 183-96-580-35-7
Sam Bradford 182-86-578-29-8
Carson Palmer 175-93-595-39-7
Peyton Manning 174-101-737-54-2
Matt Schaub 172-93-639-41-4
Joe Flacco 171-76-662-38-4
Tony Romo 170-97-673-41-2
Jay Cutler 151-76-596-35-3
Matt Hasselbeck 141-78-556-27-2
Andy Dalton 141-78-564-35-0
Alex Smith 124-70-440-25-2
Cam Newton 123-50-393-21-5
Kyle Orton 109-50-337-20-1
Chad Henne 109-54-395-21-4
Christian Ponder 103-65-436-26-4
Matt Cassel 103-54-377-28-1
• Brees and Brady are head shoulders the best in the red zone.
• Eli Manning blows too many scoring opportunities.
• Sanchez sucks.
• Roethlisberger doesn’t get as much RZ production as he should.
• Bradford has a lot of work to do.
• If Peyton Manning completes a RZ pass, it’s just as often a touchdown as not.
• Flacco still needs to get better finishing off drives with his arm.
• Cutler is surprisingly ineffective in throwing RZ touchdowns.
• Dalton has never thrown a red zone interception.
• Newton is brutal in the red zone.
2012 RUSHING (Minimum 3 rushing attempts)
Player-Att-Yrd-TD
Cam Newton 25-14-7
Robert Griffin III 6-14-3
Andrew Luck 6-19-5
Matthew Stafford 6-9-4
Tom Brady 5-6-4
Michael Vick 4-8-1
Ryan Fitzpatrick 4-(-1)-1
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Colin Kaepernick 4-(-8)-0
Aaron Rodgers 4-(-2)-0
Joe Flacco 4-(-7)-3
Tim Tebow 4-(-1)-0
Christian Ponder 3-(-6)-1
Andy Dalton 3-3-2
Ryan Tannehill 3-5-2
• Newton is four times as likely to run from the 5-yard line in as anyone.
• Luck may be the most effective RZ runner in the league in terms of finishing.
• Brady is a sneaky fantasy scorer.
• Kaepernick isn’t as elusive in close as one would think.
• Dalton is quietly becoming a red zone stud.
LAST THREE YEARS RUSHING (Minimum 5 attempts)
Player-Att-Yrd-TD
Cam Newton 28-44-15
Tom Brady 16-14-8
Michael Vick 13-12-6
Mark Sanchez 10-17-8
Tim Tebow 10-7-5
Aaron Rodgers 10-4-3
Ryan Fitzpatrick 9-(-4)-1
Joe Flacco 9-(-3)-5
Josh Freeman 8-(-1)-3
Matthew Stafford 7-10-5
Andrew Luck 6-19-5
Robert Griffin III 6-14-3
Andy Dalton 5-10-3
Tony Romo 5-2-2
• In two years, Newton has established himself as the elite RZ quarterback.
• Brady pads his stats nicely with short TD runs.
• Vick isn’t as dangerous in close as advertised.
• Sanchez is a much better red zone runner than passer.
• Luck could be the second-best RZ runner among QBs – better than RG3.
RUNNING BACKS
2012 RUSHING (Minimum 6 attempts)
Player-Att-Yrd-TD
Arian Foster 29-42-11
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Michael Turner 22-14-7
Stevan Ridley 20-2-8
Shonn Greene 19-23-7
Doug Martin 18-17-5
Adrian Peterson 18-18-6
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 14-10-5
Trent Richardson 12-5-5
Andre Brown 12-10-8
Alfred Morris 12-11-7
Ahmad Bradshaw 12-13-4
Willis McGahee 12-20-4
Frank Gore 11-6-6
Marshawn Lynch 11-15-5
Ray Rice 10-6-3
Jackie Battle 9-8-3
Steven Jackson 9-11-2
Daniel Thomas 9-13-4
Mike Tolbert 8-9-7
Darren McFadden 8-12-1
Matt Forte 8-9-2
LeSean McCoy 8-(-1)-2
LaRod Stephens-Howling 7-10-4
DeAngelo Williams 7-9-1
Michael Bush 7-4-5
Mikel Leshoure 7-7-6
Bryce Brown 7-13-2
Brandon Bolden 7-3-1
Beanie Wells 6-10-3
Chris Johnson 6-(-4)-1
Danny Woodhead 6-8-2
• Foster is the man when Houston gets near the end zone.
• Jackson may just more of the same for Atlanta.
• Ridley is all-or-nothing in close, not due to a lack of chances.
• Greene does most of fantasy damage in close.
• Peterson doesn’t dominate in this aspect of his game.
• BGE wasn’t the same in Cincinnati.
• Brown could be the reason Bradshaw is out of New York.
• Morris is a strong finishing off drives more than RG3.
• Lynch wasn’t always in Beast Mode by the goal line.
• Rice isn’t a finisher in close.
• Tolbert and Newton have made Williams and Jonathan Stewart RZ moot.
• McFadden struggles near the goal line.
• Michael Bush has become Chicago’s goal-line runner of choice.
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•
•
•
McCoy may have lost his goal-line scores to Bryce Brown.
Leshoure will take away any short-yardage TDs from Reggie Bush.
Chris Johnson sucks near the goal line.
LAST THREE YEARS RUSHING (Minimum 20 attempts)
Player-Att-Yrd-TD
Michael Turner 76-65-26
Arian Foster 67-92-28
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 49-57-23
Adrian Peterson 47-56-21
Mike Tolbert 44-49-22
Rashard Mendenhall 39-45-17
Frank Gore 39-31-14
Marshawn Lynch 39-35-18
Ray Rice 38-30-14
Michael Bush 37-41-18
LeSean McCoy 35-32-13
Cedric Benson 35-21-10
Shonn Greene 32-38-11
Chris Johnson 31-17-9
Peyton Hillis 29-33-9
Ahmad Bradshaw 28-36-14
Maurice Jones-Drew 28-18-7
Willis McGahee 28-34-8
Beanie Wells 25-32-13
Stevan Ridley 25-8-8
Steven Jackson 24-12-7
Matt Forte 23-16-3
Marion Barber 23-27-7
Thomas Jones 20-24-5
• Turner came up empty on far too many chances in close.
• Foster is the new sheriff in town near the goal line.
• BGE would have been better off in New England and Ridley isn’t the answer.
• Tolbert is a stud near the goal line and kills the other RBs on his team.
• Gore gets stuffed far too often in close.
• Rice doesn’t get many opportunities and doesn’t produce enough when he does.
• CJ2K has to score from long distance.
• MJD isn’t the power back that finishes off drives.
• Forte is arguably the worst featured back in the 5-yard line in the NFL.
RECEIVING 2012 (Minimum 6 targets)
Player-Tgt-Rec-Yd-TD
Darren Sproles 19-14-87-5
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Ronnie Brown 13-11-72-0
Ray Rice 11-5-6-0
Joique Bell 11-6-46-0
Pierre Thomas 10-7-49-1
LeSean McCoy 10-6-35-3
Jason Snelling 9-7-20-1
Arian Foster 9-6-2
Marcel Reece 9-7-46-1
Danny Woodhead 9-5-57-3
Adrian Peterson 7-5-11-1
Vick Ballard 7-5-39-1
Trent Richardson 7-1-10-0
Steven Jackson 7-3-21-0
Matt Forte 7-5-17-1
Jacquizz Rodgers 6-6-22-1
Reggie Bush 6-5-52-2
Alex Green 6-4-10-0
Jamaal Charles 6-4-19-1
• Sproles is the most dangerous RB red zone receiver in the league by far.
• The Saints throw a ton of passes to running backs in the red zone.
• Brown and Woodhead could make things interesting for Philip Rivers this year.
• Between Snelling and Rodgers, Steven Jackson use as a RZ receiver may drop.
• Forte is of more use as a receiver than a runner in the red zone.
• Keep an eye on Bush and Charles as sneaky red zone receivers.
LAST THREE YEARS RECEIVING (Minimum 15 targets)
Darren Sproles 48-38-275-12
LeSean McCoy 37-29-109-8
Jason Snelling 28-22-105-3
Arian Foster 27-18-103-4
Ray Rice 24-13-45-2
Ahmad Bradshaw 21-12-81-2
Matt Forte 21-15-60-2
Pierre Thomas 20-15-78-2
Marcel Reece 20-13-81-3
Danny Woodhead 20-11-82-4
Frank Gore 19-12-54-3
Steven Jackson 19-10-62-1
Toby Gerhart 18-15-69-3
Mike Tolbert 18-89-53-2
Reggie Bush 18-15-88-4
Adrian Peterson 16-11-64-3
Maurice Jones-Drew 16-13-85-6
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Ronnie Brown 16-14-93-0
John Kuhn 15-13-63-4
Darren McFadden 15-12-115-4
• Nobody is more of a scoring threat than Sproles.
• McCoy lost his effectively as a red zone receiver in 2012. A trend?
• Rice gets very little in the way of production after the catch.
• Minnesota has two RB receiving targets in the red zone.
• Bush is a dangerous receiving threat and that shouldn’t change in Detroit.
• When healthy MJD is a dangerous threat with his hands on the ball.
• Never underestimate the number of TDs Kuhn steals near the goal line.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Eric Decker 25-17-164-12
A.J. Green 24-13-94-8
Brandon Marshall 23-13-121-8
Marques Colston 23-17-176-10
Demaryius Thomas 21-9-78-6
Julio Jones 20-11-108-7
Vincent Jackson 20-11-139-6
James Jones 20-14-125-11
Roddy White 20-9-79-4
Larry Fitzgerald 20-8-47-2
Reggie Wayne 19-9-64-4
Victor Cruz 19-10-66-6
Mike Williams 19-8-39-6
Wes Welker 18-14-102-5
Mike Wallace 17-10-62-3
Hakeem Nicks 17-6-59-1
Calvin Johnson 17-6-50-2
Stevie Johnson 17-7-85-3
Jeremy Maclin 17-8-55-3
Brandon Lloyd 16-10-87-2
Lance Moore 15-8-67-4
Denarius Moore 15-9-75-5
Dez Bryant 14-9-51-4
Steve Smith 14-4-34-2
Miles Austin 13-5-54-2
Kendall Wright 13-7-52-3
Sidney Rice 13-7-70-4
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Donnie Avery 13-5-51-3
Percy Harvin 13-8-55-3
Andrew Hawkins 13-9-57-2
Jordy Nelson 12-6-30-4
Cecil Shorts 12-4-20-2
Kenny Britt 12-4-14-3
Golden Tate 12-9-62-4
Danny Amendola 12-8-58-2
Torrey Smith 11-8-108-6
Justin Blackmon 11-6-35-3
Michael Crabtree 11-5-43-5
• Decker emerged as Peyton Manning go-to RZ guy. Will it last?
• Marshall caught eight of the 11 RZTDs Jay Cutler threw last year.
• Colston is still Brees’ No. 1 target in the red zone.
• Julio Jones has surpassed Roddy White as the RZ target of choice.
• Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams are a formidable red zone tandem.
• Cruz is much more reliable than Nicks for Eli Manning.
• Fitzgerald’s 2012 woes were very much reflected in the red zone.
• James Jones was the clear-cut No. 1 RZ option for Aaron Rodgers.
• Megatron caught almost every pass outside the 20-yard line in 2012.
• Maclin is much more of a threat than DeSean Jackson in the red zone.
• Torrey Smith could be the best up-and-coming RZ receiver in the league.
• The 49ers will miss Crabtree in the red zone.
RECEIVING LAST THREE YEARS (Minimum 33 targets)
Roddy White 73-35-271-17
Larry Fitzgerald 64-30-188-11
Wes Welker 64-49-398-17
Marques Colston 58-41-391-19
Brandon Marshall 58-25-209-15
Mike Williams 57-24-189-16
Calvin Johnson 57-28-263-19
Stevie Johnson 52-23-218-15
Lance Moore 53-33-248-15
Reggie Wayne 52-24-203-12
Brandon Lloyd 50-23-192-11
Hakeem Nicks 49-25-205-13
Pierre Garcon 46-23-133-8
Miles Austin 45-19-146-10
Greg Jennings 45-29-206-16
Jeremy Maclin 44-27-212-14
James Jones 43-30-224-17
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A.J. Green 41-18-132-11
Mike Wallace 40-19-136-7
Percy Harvin 40-23-158-6
Santana Moss 39-19-132-10
Dwayne Bowe 39-16-128-11
Jordy Nelson 37-21-148-12
Jabar Gaffney 37-20-159-6
Dez Bryant 37-24-180-14
Danny Amendola 37-24-137-5
Nate Burleson 36-23-151-9
Anquan Boldin 36-12-102-6
Michael Crabtree 36-16-125-8
Demaryius Thomas 36-16-134-9
Eric Decker 36-22-208-16
Vincent Jackson 34-18-179-11
Malcolm Floyd 34-14-121-9
Steve Smith 34-11-101-5
• White has a lot of history with Matt Ryan, but Julio Jones in taking over.
• Fitzgerald gets too many passes thrown his way for so few touchdowns.
• Nobody has scored more RZ touchdowns than Colston.
• Marshall is much more dangerous in Chicago than he was in Miami.
• The Lions are hoping 2012 was an aberration for Megatron.
• Josh Freeman has a growing history with Mike Williams that is noteworthy.
• No WR tandem has been targeted more than Colston and Moore.
• Jennings could be a nice red zone addition for Minnesota.
• Maclin is the only Eagles WR consistently targeted in close.
• Green has done more in two years than most top receivers have in three.
• Wallace isn’t a scoring threat commensurate with being a No. 1 WR.
• Harvin is used in the red zone, but rarely finishes off drives with TDs in close.
• When Bowe catches a pass in the RZ, it goes for a TD two-thirds of the time.
• Bryant is a more reliable target in the red zone than Austin.
• For being such a tough receiver, Boldin doesn’t catch nearly enough passes.
• Steve Smith never has been a viable red zone receiver and never will be.
• Vincent Jackson is glad he made the move to Tampa Bay.
• Why isn’t Andre Johnson showing up on these lists?
TIGHT ENDS
Heath Miller 20-12-63-7
Jimmy Graham 17-9-82-8
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Rob Gronkowski 17-10-73-8
Kyle Rudolph 17-14-95-9
Tony Gonzalez 17-12-85-8
Martellus Bennett 16-7-48-4
Greg Olsen 14-8-82-3
Jason Witten 14-8-69-3
Joel Dreessen 14-8-27-4
Brandon Myers 14-9-60-4
Marcedes Lewis 14-7-43-4
Anthony Fasano 13-9-58-5
Dennis Pitta 13-8-78-5
Jermaine Gresham 13-9-80-4
Dallas Clark 12-8-68-4
Brandon Pettigrew 12-5-62-3
Owen Daniels 12-3-24-3
Aaron Hernandez 12-7-40-4
Brent Celek 11-6-45-1
Tony Scheffler 11-4-23-1
Jermichael Finley 11-4-38-2
Antonio Gates 11-8-94-6
Scott Chandler 10-6-57-5
• If Miller isn’t back for the start of the year, Big Ben will suffer in the red zone.
• Graham and Gronkowski score when they catch RZ passes.
• Wherever you have Rudolph ranked, this could be reason to bump him up.
• Gonzo is still a god in the red zone, despite Julio and Roddy being around.
• Bennett came up empty too often in New York.
• Fasano quietly remains a go-to target in Miami.
• Keep an eye on Pitta and an expanding role in the offense.
• Pettrigrew should be better in the red zone.
• Gates isn’t used as much as he used to be, but he is still money in the RZ.
RECEIVING LAST THREE YEARS (Minimum 25 targets)
Rob Gronkowski 59-41-344-29
Tony Gonzalez 58-34-259-21
Jimmy Graham 54-31-242-21
Aaron Hernandez 49-28-166-16
Brandon Pettigrew 45-20-195-12
Jason Witten 44-26-165-14
Marcedes Lewis 44-20-133-11
Dustin Keller 42-20-118-11
Brent Celek 42-23-154-7
Antonio Gates 39-27-241-19
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Greg Olsen 39-20-173-10
Heath Miller 38-22-171-11
Tony Scheffler 36-15-117-7
Jermaine Gresham 36-24-177-13
Owen Daniels 33-16-121-8
Jermichael Finley 30-16-130-11
Anthony Fasano 30-18-129-11
Joel Dreessen 29-20-114-12
Vernon Davis 26-18-120-11
Dallas Clark 26-15-108-8
Scott Chandler 25-16-149-11
Martellus Bennett 25-11-71-4
Zach Miller 25-15-99-5
Ben Watson 25-12-102-7
• Gronk has been putting up unprecedented Hall of Fame numbers.
• Gonzo and Graham make the NFC South the best TE division in the NFL.
• There will be room for some to take the role Hernandez had with the Patriots.
• It is hoped that Pettigrew’s 2012 was an aberration like Calvin Johnson’s.
• Celek gets targeted in close, but doesn’t seal the deal often enough.
• Gates is so money – 70% of his targets get caught and 70% of them go for TDs.
• Daniels is far from dominant in the red zone.
• Gresham is targeted in the end zone, not out of it.
• There’s a reason Bennett is on his third team in three years.
~ end ~
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Passing Fancy 2013: Strategies for QB-Weighted Leagues
July 26, 2013
by: John Cooney
Quarterback-weighted leagues… quarterback-weighted leagues.
Yellow-dominate bananas.
Guitar-playing rock bands.
Quarterback-weighted leagues?
By nature, aren’t practically all fantasy football leagues quarterback-weighted? Just a thought
before delving into the latest theories of working up plans for the prolific passers of 2013.
Football in the college ranks and the National Football League have morphed into a league
dominated by exciting and diversified aerial schemes. Footballs are sailing to receivers headed
on down-field posts (8-route), fades (9-route) and flags (7-route) while mid-range pass catchers
and slot demons are slanting (2-route), cutting (out or 5-route) and digging (6-route) across the
gridiron. Sporty running backs are heavily involved also, taking down launches on swing passes,
bubble screens, rocket and wheel routes. Offensive masterminds are laying out inventive,
complex plays combination routes out of spread formations, shotgun, empty backfields and
pistol to get as many “hands” into pass patterns as possible. Traditional carry-the-load running
backs are no longer the foundation of an offense, giving way to the multi-skilled tailback asked
to chip-block, pick up the blitz, run a progressive route-tree and catch the football in widereceiver like manner. And who is in the middle of all this action? The center-piece, the trigger…
the quarterback.
No skill position on the field handles the football more times, in every conceivable pressurepacked situation than the quarterback. The quarterback is the one player on each team that has
the very real potential to explode for more yards from scrimmage, has a hand in the majority of
touchdowns scored and is directly responsible for the success or failure of wide receivers, tight
ends and now holds more responsibility to the on field prosperity of his backfield mates. Making
it all possible for the quarterback to be the weekly performance lightning rod is the NFL’s
revamped rules catering to the protection the star passers and the ever-favorable rule tweaks
enhancing the receivers ability to haul the ball in. The game has evolved into a wide-open wildwest shoot-out. It is not by chance that quarterbacks most often dominate the scoring in most
fantasy leagues.
Having rules in place to protect the quarterback more than ever and receivers being treated with
velvet gloves, it is an era of let ‘er rip offense. Prior to 2011 only a single pro passer resided as a
member of the 5000 passing yard club; Miami’s Dan Marino aired out 5084 in 1984; it stood the
challenge of others for 27 years. Since 2008, however, the 5000 mark has been topped 5 times,
with 4 coming in just the past two years. Including those 5000 yard throwers, 11 quarterbacks
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broke the 4000 barrier last season alone. Dan Marino’s record of passing yards in a season
(5084) was broken twice in the same year in 2011. Saints QB Drew Brees has eclipsed 5000
yards passing three times in the last five seasons and took down Marino’s record in 2011 with
the now table-setting 5476. Quarterbacks have thrown for 4,500 yards or more in a season 39
times in the league’s history, 22 times in just the past 4 seasons!
With passing yards usually brings touchdown passes. 2011 was the first time three quarterbacks
surpassed 40-passing TDs in a season. Drew Bress, a 5K yard passer last season, ripped another
43 in the process. Statistically, performances in the passing game are at an all-time high.
Fantasy football commissioners and league managers have been altering scoring rules in in an
effort to level the scoring field between the QB and the other skill players. Many leagues focus
on the basic scoring strategies, with quarterbacks getting three or four points for each passing TD
and one point for every 20 or 25 passing yards, while taking a point away for each interception.
A scoring menu like this is an attempt to devalue the quarterback position; well-intentioned but
mostly futile. With all the machinations put in place by fantasy league bosses and organizers to
level the playing field, quarterbacks still end up reigning supreme.
There are other fantasy league rule-setters that take a contrary viewpoint and actually recognize
the quarterback as the most important player on the field and, much like the NFL, design the
rules of their leagues to highlight the play of the passer. Setting a QB-weighted league does not
require much creativity or heavy mental lifting. Quarterback-weighted leagues tend to award
passers six points for every touchdown instead of three or four. A bonus for hitting 300-yards
passing in a game or for longer touchdown passes is often part of the QB-friendly league. Some
leagues take to giving the QB a point for every 10 yards passing rather than the more
conservative 20-25 yard breakpoint. A PPR league could install these options looking to find
ways of bringing some extra value to quarterbacks and thus thrust the passers’ value over
running backs and over-valued dink-n-dunk slot receivers.
Another wrinkle that is making its way into fantasy football scoring menus is total yards from
scrimmage for QBs. With the infusion of dual-threat athletes taking snaps from center, passing
yard bonuses and breakpoints are giving way to air miles AND rushing yardage in combined
total tally. The NFL changes quickly from season to season, and astute fantasy football
commissioners constantly alter there leagues to keep up with the times. Again, a league that
caters to QB yards from scrimmage falls into the QB weighted scoring category also.
In any scoring format, be it balanced scoring, PPR and obviously QB-weighted leagues, starting
quarterbacks in general are going to score more overall points, and specifically more points PER
game than most players at other positions just because of sheer volume of chances. The
questions to be answered each pre-season as fantasy football owners prep for their drafts and
auctions are which passers (if any) rate first round consideration over stud running backs and star
wide receivers? What circumstances may have changed that might make it wise to focus on
taking an elite passer early, especially in leagues that are most favorable to quarterbacks? Have
all the aggressive rules alterations by the NFL to enhance the passing game forced this year’s
fanballers to consider a return to the late 1980s-early 1990s when legends like Dan Marino
(Drew Brees), Joe Montana (Tom Brady), Randall Cunningham (Cam Newton), Steve Young
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(Robert Griffin III) and Warren Moon (Matt Stafford) were having their names called out in
fantasy drafts opening rounds? Or, has the infusion of extremely talented, versatile, mobile and
pro-ready young signal-callers like Andrew Luck, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Ryan
Tannehill, RGIII and Newton, joined by the existing star-quality vets like Aaron Rodgers, Matt
Ryan, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo and Eli Manning created such a deep pool of viable arms that
waiting on a QB is the way to go?
The above mentioned changes to the game, the rapid evolution of the running back position into
interchangeable (RBBC) pieces that are used as support for the passing game, AND the
proliferation of Pistol/Spread 3-4-5 receiver formations have truly altered the value of the early
rounds of fantasy football drafts and auctions. If your league awards six points for TD passes and
runs, bonuses for yards passing in a game, long passing scores, total yards from scrimmage or
any other “extras” for QBs, then you are in a QB-WEIGHTED league. In 2012 it seemed like a
great opportunity to add four-to-six quarterback names as solid first round draft options. 2013,
just like that, we have a different situation.
True top-of-the-list fantasy star players, be it QB, RB, WR or TE are products of the times they
play in as much as a result stemming from their talents. The past decade or so we witnessed the
stud running back era, with the “feature” RB dominating the first two-to-three rounds of fantasy
drafts. But a new era has risen, and we are experiencing the dawn of the stud quarterback period
in the NFL and fantasy football. Let’s not bog ourselves down with statistics and sabermetric
haze here. Instead, we’ll dive into practical application and old school fantasy football logic.
Assume we have identified that we are, indeed, in a QB-Weighted league (6-points for passing
TDs, bonus points for passing yards and/or yards from scrimmage, etc.). The obvious objective
each week is to score more points than the opposition. To do that in the QB-friendly league, base
your team/roster/draft on nailing down one of the true top-tiered QBs early… possibly in the first
round. Remember, running backs in today’s game are mostly meant to be interchangeable. NFL
coaches have finally figured out that the position is too demanding physically for one player to
handle alone, hence the perceived fantasy football evil known as RBBC. There are a few that
still separate themselves from the rest of the pack, qualifying as “feature” backs. Adrian
Peterson, Doug Martin, Jamal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Marshawn Lynch and LeSean
McCoy all come to mind as first round talents that are a step above the rest of the ball-carriers in
the NFL. But even in that elite group, Charles, Rice and McCoy all work within a passing
offense and they have weeks where they are not utilized any better or more than the tailbacks
rated under them. From week-to-week you can sub in a potential point-getting ball carrier (use
that term lightly) by working your Fantasy Football Mastermind Strength Of Schedule. Let other
owners fret and scramble for those top53-4 running backs fantasy experts considered studs.
There’s a good chance that those star halfbacks are going to miss some time on the field. Adrian
Peterson was a horse last season; can he survive another carry-load like that again? Jamaal
Charles has an injury history and he may be injury-prone with the anticipated rise in touches this
season. Rice has a rising Bernard Pierce to contend with; Foster a huge carry total in the past 3
seasons… there is great weekly availability risk here. And even at their best it is most likely that
none of them will outscore the top 12 passers this season. Prepare on working the following
passers into your early-rounds draft plan; Aaron Rodgers (GB), Drew Brees (NO) and Peyton
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Manning (DEN). A few advantages of focusing your strategy on drafting one of these elite QBs
in round one or two are;
1. Opening opportunity to draft late in the first round to secure your cornerstone (QB).
2. Your cornerstone draft pick WILL lead your team (and possibly your league) in scoring.
3. Your first round pick is most likely to stay on the field and play a full schedule.
4. Flexibility is created and you can ounce on a stud RB that may unexpectedly fall to you late in
round one, AND you still can nail down a Rodgers, Brees or Denver’s Manning on the turnaround.
Regarding the first three advantages, can you say any of the above about ANY running back you
would draft in round one? Will one of the top three RBs still be available for you late in round
one? In a QB-weighted league, will a RB or WR ever lead your league in scoring? Are the
chances favorable that your top RB will make it through the entire season playing at full speed,
or a full slate of games? Sure, wide receivers are likely to play all 16 games and put up great
numbers but even the best in the game (Calvin Johnson) have to share the ball with at least two
other sets of hands on any given play AND, your stud QB is the one who is getting the ball to
any of those superstar receivers anyway. Even with the success of the very best wideouts in the
game, one of these quarterbacks is scoring his points at the same time. Another advantage of
being able to draft later in the first round, assuming the draft is serpentine, is you still have ample
opportunity to select a solid running back or elite wide receiver. You next pick is just around the
corner and there is still plenty of value in early round two. It just makes sense in a QB-weighted
league; given the offensive environment… draft late, take the quarterback. If a “must have”
halfback happens to fall deep into round one (Ray Rice has a surprisingly low round 1 ADP),
you are still in position to nab that surprise left on the board and steal a stud QB on the turn early
in round two (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees).
These A-list QBs are most capable of lighting up 40 touchdowns and 5000 yards passing. That
adds up to two top running backs rushing for 1500 yards and 10 TDs EACH… PLUS two wide
receivers hauling in 1000 yards and 10 scores apiece. That is four rounds of draft picks in one
player; all this from your most important pick in the draft, a gold-standard quarterback. Sure,
there is no guarantee these passers are going to reach the 40/5000 marks this season, but they are
likely to be close. If the league you participate in is weighted toward the performance of the QB,
then a slight dip in these eye-popping numbers isn’t going to create any sizeable shift in their
perceived first round value.
The ever-changing National Football League forces fantasy football participants to re-evaluate
draft and roster strategy each and every off-season. Heading into the 2012 drafts it looked like 46 quarterbacks warranted first round consideration, thanks to previous dominating exploits and
given the perceived thin depth of talent at that position around the league. One season later the
quarterback position in the NFL seems as strong and deep as ever. After the three studs in the
tier-one level (Rodgers, Brees, P.Manning) there is little separating the next 6-9 passers when we
take into account skill, supporting cast, opportunity, offensive schemes and strength of schedule.
The quarterback pool is also getting a lift from a few of the bottom-rated passers of 2012 who
find themselves in better situations thanks to a change in coaching, uniform, personnel or all of
the above. The fading star of Carson Palmer gets a jolt of energy in 2013 as a Cardinal, playing
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under former Colts coach Bruce Arians. Arians’ style of play-calling and offensive theory is a
clean match for Palmer’s particular style of play. Kansas City’s new dart throwing passer, Alex
Smith, was hand-picked by Coach Andy Reid because he not only “fits”, but seems to be ready
to blossom as an NFL star QB. The Browns’ Brandon Weeden gets to open it up and use that big
arm of his in a Norv Turner down-field focused passing game. Disappointing St. Louis QB Sam
Bradford has the best set of speedy playmakers he’s ever had as a pro, and finally has a chance to
work the entire field in his air attack. Chicago enigma Jay Cutler gets to perform for the best
offensive coach he’s had since his Mike Shanahan days in Denver. Yes gang, the cupboard
appears full with fine passing ingredients and fantasy football QB options in 2013. The rising
talents are comingling with other throwers who are seeing their stock value fall this year. While
Patriots passer Tom Brady is still an elite QB talent, his supporting cast and the offensive
philosophy is vastly altered. New England has gutted its receiver corps and seems to be shifting
to a run-based offense. Brady’s championships have come with him passing under 4000 yards
and Coach Belichick doesn’t forget things that worked in the past. Philly’s Mike Vick not only
has been just mediocre at best the past 1.5 seasons, he’s in a true battle for a job with 2nd season
man Nick Foles. Joe Flacco has a nice title trophy on his mantle, but he lost his best receiver this
off-season (Anquan Boldin) and the Ravens did little to replace the go-to veteran for Flacco.
Philip Rivers and Matt Schaub are experiencing the down-side of their careers and their peak
years are in the rear-view mirror. What does this mean for those fanballers working in QBfriendly leagues? Quite simply, if you are not hell-bent on having the top three QBs on your
roster this season, then even in QB-weighted leagues, wait it out and allow the best available
passer come to you while you fortify other positions in your lineup.
Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Matt Stafford, Andrew Luck, Eli Manning,
Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III all have the right set of tools to produce winning fantasy
points. In 2013 there are others that are knocking on that door. Arizona QB Carson Palmer broke
the 4000 passing yards mark with a talent-depleted Oakland Raider offense last season. This year
he is tossing the rock to the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts and
aggressive play-caller Bruce Arians is his coach. Tennessee’s Jake Locker has a rocket arm and
great wheels along with the full-time job and a year of experience under his belt. The Titans have
receiving weapons, a quality o-line and a new offensive coordinator who is young and looking to
make his mark in the league. Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman battled through inconsistency last
season, yet eclipsed 4000 yards through the air and has fine wideouts to throw to. Seattle’s
Russell Wilson was allowed to slowly mature as a rookie and began to air it out late in the
season. Wilson has an underrated assortment of receivers to work with this season. Though
Philip Rivers is in decline, he’ll get a fresh start with a new coaching staff. Rivers did throw for
over 4600 yards and 27 TDs the season prior to last; he’s still not that far gone. Sam Bradford,
Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler all have much improved situations over last season
and should be ready to approach career years in 2013.
2013 should prove to be a banner year for the passing game. The quarterback talent is deep, the
systems in place are dynamic and the supporting players are tailored to helping the passer
succeed in various and creative ways. The game today is all about big plays and air-dominance.
Things happen quickly in the NFL and changing circumstances create opportunity for some and
consternation for others. The early-to-mid 1990’s saw quarterbacks drafted regularly in the first
round, and it was fun and exciting. Today the game is all about getting off as many plays as
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possible on offense and thus, boosting the scoring opportunities for the QB. It’s time to check
their scoring menus in your leagues, identify if your leagues are QB-weighted, and then use that
passer-friendly program to your best advantage.
Prepping for your 2013 season and participating in a QB-weighted fantasy league, lineup Aaron
Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees for round one or early round two call-outs. Once
those elite playmakers are off the board, shift your plans and load up your other skill positions
before selecting a passer. 2013 brings the deepest group of arms ever assembled in the pro ranks.
~ end ~
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Zigging and Zagging Through Your Draft
July 26, 2013
by: H.D. Coelho
All of us enjoy sports action, or at the very least fantasy sports action. Football, baseball,
and basketball are all very popular but personally I also enjoy the pugilistic arts. That’s right,
boxing. I partook in the sport in my younger days and was intrigued by the physical chess match
taking place in the ring. Every punch has a counter, jab or uppercut so if you can’t dart and
dodge, zig and zag, you would not be upright for long. That’s a strategy we could follow in
fantasy drafts to some degree.
Every season shortly after the NFL draft the fantasy hype machine begins churning out
names; players no fantasy player could live without. A shrewd owner learns to zig when others
zag, letting others reach for the hype while you snap up the talent that falls to you. Lets look at
some overvalued players for this season, and some great values to snap up in their place.
Quarterbacks
Overvalued- Tom Brady
I know the wealth of expertise Brady has at the position, and how he is top 5 every year
but the handwriting is clearly on the wall this year in New England. He lost two of his top
receiving options with the departure of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and the handcuffed
departure of Aaron Hernandez. Then factor in Rob Gronkowski and his iffy health status, as
well as newly acquired Danny Amendola and his frequent health hiccups and things look mighty
thin in the cupboard in Beantown.
Undervalued- Andrew Luck
There is no luck required, this kid has tons of talent and football smarts. Reggie Wayne is
still there (another undervalued player) and looks for the talented tight ends Coby Fleener and
Dwayne Allen to be more active too. The teams also added Darius Heyward-Bey plus
incumbent Ty Hilton will get more in the mix. It’s not a stretch for Luck to finish top 5 in 2013.
Getting a signal caller like this in round 6 or so will give you time to gobble up talented running
backs and wide receivers.
Honorable mentions- Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson
Running Backs
Overvalued-David Wilson
I must confess, I am a David Wilson owner, but I sure don’t see him as my RB1. Sure,
he has tons of talent and always could pull off another 300 yard plus effort like he did last year
against the Saints. Then again, he is also a bad fumble or two away from the Coughlin
doghouse plus he still is not a natural fit in pass protection. It’s also not a forgone conclusion
that Andre Brown may not be the foundation back in this RBBC with some of the speedy Wilson
mixed in. That’s a bit risky to justify his ADP of round 2 or 3.
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Undervalued-Jamaal Charles
Everyone was amazed by Adrian Peterson and his performance following a major injury,
but lost in the shuffle was Jamaal Charles. Poorly used on a badly coached team, Charles still
totaled over 1500 yards. I would be shocked if Andy Reid would not use Charles to his potential
both on the ground and in space catching balls out of the backfield. At just 26 years old, he is
poised for his best season to date.
Honorable mentions-Lamar Miller, Pierre Thomas
Wide Receivers
Overvalued-Percy Harvin
True enough; Harvin is a dynamic playmaker who can be even be effective in the
backfield if the opportunity presents itself. Yet the way he makes opposing defenses pay most is
catching passes and lots of them, and those come from lots of targets. Where Harvin was the
focal point in a thin Minnesota receiving corps, Seattle is much deeper at the position plus it’s a
very basic running offense that was last in passing attempts in 2012. Its unlikely that Harvin will
get enough targets to justify his WR1 position he is being drafted in.
Honorable Mention-Wes Welker
Undervalued-Steve Smith
The speedy Smith has done nothing for his entire career but catch footballs and lots of
them. With a talented quarterback who is sure to get better, Smith is still really the only guy in
town at the position. Brandon Lafell and David Gettis don’t scare me. Neither does the
additions of Domenik Hixon or special teams ace Ted Ginn Jr. It should be a no brainer that
Smith exceeds his average draft spot of the eighth round.
Honorable Mention-Antonio Brown, Cecil Shorts
There is a lot can be gained by going against the flow and grabbing those player values
that fall to us. Of course, we all will be guilty of reaching for a player too early from time to
time but that’s a discussion for another time. For now just remember to zig and zag.
~ end ~
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Magic QB Handcuffs
July 26, 2013
by: Chris Rito
Do you remember those trick handcuffs you would see advertised on the back cover of
comic books when you were a kid? You know...they looked just like a pair of regular ordinary ol'
handcuffs, but some amazing magic happened when you knew how to use them properly. They
seemed like one plain and simple thing that many would ignore, but they really were so much
more in the right hands. In many ways, I think this is a great analogy for drafting your backup
fantasy QB, since a very good plan is often to take the ordinary guy as your #2 - a guy that is
way more than he seems, but only when you know how to use him properly!
Even though many pundits are claiming that this is the deepest set of starting fantasy QBs
in recent history, it still could be a very reasonable approach to take a QB early and then wait on
a backup until late in the draft. Unlike a WR or RB that will fill multiple starting spots in your
lineup , you only have one QB slot in most leagues...and therefore you tend to stick with one guy
in your starting lineup all season long (barring injury). But then, the dreaded bye week comes
by and you have to play that ordinary Joe and many make the mistake of overvaluing that one
week on draft day; many times a fantasy owner gets paranoid and spends a way-too-high draft
pick on a backup QB that they actually hope will never see the light of day outside of a single
bye week start! To be honest, for most teams and owners, the loss of the starting QB (which is
the most predictable of the positions atop the rankings, and the highest scoring) already means
that your season has a significant likelihood of turning out considerably poorer than expected.
So why worry?
In this article, I will take a look at the top three tiers of QBs in the Mastermind rankings
(the top eleven passers, as of the start of July) and offer some quick thoughts on the low-rent
QBs that would make good partners for each of them on your fantasy roster, based on schedule
and recent history. I will mostly avoid using the guys in the 4th tier (Wilson, E.Manning, Dalton,
Freeman, Big Ben, Rivers) for several reasons. First of all....your personal rankings could
reasonably have several of these guys in YOUR top tiers, or on the draft boards of other owners
in your drafts. Therefore, some of them clearly will be drafted as fantasy starters, especially in
12 team leagues. Secondly....none of those guys would be available in the latter third of your
draft, as they clearly will be valued enough to be off the grid by round 12 or so. The main focus
of this piece is to help you think about a guy you can get REAL late, that will give you that
chance at a one-week nuclear score without having to spend a real high draft pick on him. In
fact, some of these guys might not even get drafted in several leagues under normal
circumstances, and might be available as last round options, depending on league rules and
owner tendencies!
Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton (week 4):
There are a whole host of intriguing matchups from which to pick in this one, with numerous
lower tier QBs facing less-than-stellar defenses. Again, I will focus on the lower-ranked passers
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since you likely spent a very high pick on Rodgers and will not be looking for someone to
potentially break out and sustain greatness that is competitive. Jake Locker will be at home
against as suspect Jets' pass defense and should have a good day; mobile QBs are a little tougher
for this team, and they were clearly untalented without Revis to take away half of the field as we
saw in 2012. A huge day should be had by Ryan Tannehill who is on the fast track in New
Orleans. Everyone throws on the Saints, and they are particularly susceptible to the deep
speedsters and the TE. Enter Tannehill and his new toys Mike Wallace and Dustin Keller, and no
consistent run game on the horizon with which to bludgeon the Saints. This one could be a track
meet. Carson Palmer plays an improved (on paper) Bucs pass defense that was among the worst
in league history in 2012, but did add Darrell Revis. Not that you would bench a healthy Newton
or Rodgers, but Palmer does have choice matchups also while coming out of a bye in weeks 10
(HOU) and 11 (@JAX) when these two face some of their tougher matchups; does a healthy
Palmer trump a gimpy stud QB? Other solid options are Matt Flynn (vs.WAS) and Jay Cutler
(@DET)
Robert Griffin (week 5)
There are not a lot of "wow!" options that really jump out at me in this week, and with the
questions surrounding RG3's recovery from late-season knee injury...it might make more sense
to take a more solid backup QB (like Eli) rather than a late-round flyer with questionable talents.
But if you trust in RG3, then you can't help but like Jay Cutler's hosting of the Saints in what
should be a high-scoring affair and some chances to get Marshall and Jeffrey downfield. There
are some lesser plays that also spark some interest in me, notably Brandon Weeden (vs. BUF)
and Sam Bradford (vs. JAX). Each are playing at home against some lesser competition, and
each might be looking for an early season confidence booster by airing it out. Weeden will be
trying to reengage suspended WR Josh Gordon and Bradford will still be adjusting to his new
receivers in the early season, so each guy could be putting the ball in the air. A far sneakier play
would be Alex Smith facing the Titans. While I do not expect this to be any sort of shootout, the
Titans have been terrible in defending the TE in recent seasons, and the new Andy Reid offense
will surely be able to exploit this. As a late-round gamble, waiting for a backup and settling for
Smith would not be a terrible consolation prize. Other options: Matt Flynn (vs. SD) and Michael
Vick (@NYG)
Matt Ryan (week 6)
This is another week without huge options that jump off the page, and this might be another case
where I actually recommend taking a low 4th tier guy as your backup. Philp Rivers (vs. IND) has
a super fantasy history against the Colts, especially at home and makes the best play as a partner
here. While he is not returning back to the Bay area, Alex Smith will see a team he has faced in
preseason a lot (vs. OAK). In the regular season, he has only faced the porous Raiders twice, but
he has thrown 5 TDs in those two games -- and this year's team may be worse than the ones
from those historical matchups. The best low-tier matchup will probably be Brandon Weeden
(vs. Detroit). besides facing an unchallenging pass defense, the Browns will be in the third game
of a long homestand and will be comfortable, the Lions will be coming off a tough road trip to
Lambeau. Other options include Michael Vick (@TB) and Sam Bradford (@ HOU).
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Drew Brees (week 7)
There are more than a few potentially lucrative matchups on the docket this week for the lesser
fantasy passers . I kind of like Jay Cutler on the road in Washington - he tends to play a little
better on the road without the Windy City boo-birds heckling him. The Skins defense was also
atrocious in the air in 2012, and I don't see a great deal of improvement yet this year. Michael
Vick is at home against Dallas, and he has a great history against the Cowboys since donning an
Eagles' uniform; his QB rating as an Eagle vs. the Cowboys is well north of 100. However, he is
a better pairing with a Tier 3 QB that is off this week - e.g., guy that might actually get benched
if Vick returns to glory. A real last-round flyer would be whoever wins the starting gig for the
Jets who host the Patriots that week, especially if it is Mark Sanchez. New England is notorious
for allowing a ton of garbage points in the air to the Jets, and this one should be no different as
the Jets should trail early and often. If it is Geno Smith, however, I would think that The Hoodie
will find a way to befuddle the rookie a bit more. Other solid options: Ryan Tannehill (vs. BUF)
Andrew Luck (week 8)
This is a tough week, and only partially because there are so many good fantasy teams off this
week at the same time. I am not as sold on Luck being as big a fantasy force in 2013 as are
many, so the fact that there are no great matchups among the late-round backups makes me want
to consider drafting a backup quicker than most and selecting from the 4th tier. I actually think
that Tony Romo is a good match for Luck and they might need to be drafted in consecutive
rounds in rounds 7-10 somewhere to make sure they get together on your roster. Romo also has a
dream matchup (@DET) in Luck's bye week even if the youngster pans out. The other three guys
that have the most choice matchups are all guys that I think will have great potential for garbage
time while trailing heavily in their respective games. I am fairly sure that rookie E.J.Manuel (@
NO) will be in the lineup by week 8, and will get a host of garbage yards against the Saints on
the road. Ditto for Christian Ponder (vs. GB) who will not have the luxury of feeding AD if
behind by three scores. The more solid of the three garbage men this week would be Ryan
Tannehill (@ NE) who should also have some other good weeks along the way and would be a
more solid option to couple with his fellow sophomore Luck.
Peyton Manning, Colin Kaepernick and Matt Stafford (week 9)
Wow - there will be a lot of fantasy owners with stud QBs sitting on the bench this week, so you
will be in a race with several owners to secure the right backup for your roster. In addition,
middle tier guys like Eli and Palmer are off this week also, and even another potential lastrounder like Henne/Gabbert is off the grid. Yikes! Fortunately, the entire middle tier of QBs has
good matchups, so there yet will be a lot of options available for you. One low-end matchup that
trips my trigger is Alex Smith (@ BUF); like I described earlier for Smith in week 5, Buffalo has
traditionally been terrible against the TE so he could have a big week due to the specific
defensive scheme in this matchup. One player to surely avoid is Jay Cutler (@ GB) even though
he is coming off a bye, because his history in Lambeau is downright butt-ugly with high sack
and INT totals and he has been beaten up. But I really do like starting a guy in the late national
game, especially if it has the possibility of being a high-scoring matchup...and Matt Schaub (vs.
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IND) on Sunday night with both teams coming off byes and likely battling for the division lead?
Take the Schaubster here and put him in your pocket as the best option for this week.
Tom Brady (week 10)
With a guy that will never get benched by a fantasy GM and rarely ever has missed a game, you
are definitely looking for a one week fix here. Fortunately, there are a wealth of solid options,
including some that can be had well into the latest rounds of the draft. Also, there are a lot of
matchups of geographically close opponents, so travel may not be a big factor to make road
warriors more attractive. One could think that Jay Cutler (vs. DET) would be a great pairing
here, but watch out! Despite having two cracks a year against the pathetic Lions pass defense,
Cutler has only had one big game against them, and it was a garbage time game in week 17 of
2009. Ryan Tannehill (@ TB) is probably a better bet playing not too far from home and against
a poorer secondary even with Revis. Revis will likely shadow speedy Mike Wallace, but Tampa
got crushed by the TE in 2012, and Tannehill also has a new toy at that position to exploit. I also
like Sam Bradford (@ IND) against a revamped but as of this writing unproven secondary. Since
I think the game could be somewhat higher scoring for the Colts, Bradford might also be in
catch-up mode. Some deep round guys that could pay dividends for a one-week fix might be
Jake Locker (vs. JAX) or Christian Ponder (vs. WAS), who each will have the chance to exploit
burnable secondaries while having advantages in the WR-CB matchups.
Tony Romo (week 11)
As much as I think Tony Romo is unfairly criticized by the fans and media, I have to admit that I
would be nervous going into a season with him as my starter. So, I would look for a bye week
partner that has some potential to be more than a stop-gap bye week dude. Because of this, I
might consider Carson Palmer (@JAX) as the best option. Palmer also has some good matchups
when Romo has some tough ones, so this could be a platoon if you like. Jake Locker (@ IND)
also has a chance to have a big week; he has performed well in the past against Indy, and Britt
and Washington each have solid histories there as well. There are two scrubs that will be coming
off of byes, and also have choice matchups, starting with Brandon Weeden (@ CIN). While
Cinci has a solid defense, the CIN/CLE games have been track meets in recent years, so it is
possible. Also, the Jets come off a bye and go into Buffalo...and since the Jets have five really
tough games before the bye, it would not surprise me if this were the start of Geno Smith's
starting career with two weeks to prepare and the jets sporting at least a five-game losing streak.
I would also think about a one-week option of the Raiders QB in garbage time in Houston, but
your guess is as good as mine who that will be right now. Whoever it is will likely be on the
waiver wire and available if you need someone that week.
As you prepare your roster and make your draft strategy, the concept of backups is just one thing
to consider. One must decide if the preferred strategy is one of getting two good-to-great passers
and covering your butt in case of injury, or one of loading up at the other positions and picking a
QB#2 for just one week. If you feel comfortable with this second option....you just have to take
this article into the draft with you and then you can eschew the backup QB position until round
12 or later, improving your overall roster! But no matter what you do, it is important to see how
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the players on your roster mesh together to create something that is far more magical than the
mere sum of the parts.
~ end ~
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Player Percentage: Who's on the Field & Who Isn't?
July 26, 2013
by: John Holler
There are many factors that fantasy owners use to rate players, but one that is rarely used
– primarily because most fans don’t have access to it – is the player percentage. The PP numbers
list the number of plays that a given player is on the field in the course of a game. Some of the
numbers can be shocking – a wide receiver may only be on the field half as often as a teammate,
but has as many or more catches. That either means his coach or his quarterback has so much
confidence in that player that he gets targeted when he’s on the field. But, it could also be a
situation where the player on the field so much gets used so rarely.
The PP numbers can tell a fantasy owner willing to do his homework a lot about the use
of key fantasy players. Would you have rather have a featured back who is on the field 75
percent of the time or one that is on the field 50 percent of the time? Even if their numbers are
comparable in terms of carries and yards, the simple fact of the matter is that you don’t score
fantasy points from the bench. Why are we so down on the Carolina backfield? See the playtime
percentages of the Panther running backs. When healthy, it would appear the Panthers were
much more willing to give the ball to Jonathan Stewart in terms of PP numbers, but DeAngelo
Williams and Mike Tolbert were typically on the field so much that it negated much of Stewart’s
effectiveness.
The level to which you analyze these numbers is up to you. You can learn a lot about a
player and coaching staff by looking at the final few games for a team that had already been
eliminated from playoff contention. Did his playing drop when the games were meaningless?
Was a team taking a look at younger players to see what they have to offer for 2013? As you
make your draft list check out these numbers and see where the numbers speak loudly. Who will
Percy Harvin take time away from in the Seattle offense. Will Steven Jackson be a good fit in
Atlanta? Both will certainly be upgrades over what their new teams had last year, but will they
fill the need they were brought into accomplish?
Before you finalize you list, spend the time to examine the play percentage numbers
because they may tell the story behind the story as to why some fantasy players continue to be
consistent and dominant while others are much more hit and miss.
AFC EAST
BUFFALO BILLS
Week 1 – (60 plays) Ryan Fitzpatrick (60/100), C.J. Spiller (42/70), Fred Jackson (15/25),
Tashard Choice (7/12), Stevie Johnson (58/97), Donald Jones (57/95), David Nelson (28/47),
Ruvell Martin (15/25), Scott Chandler (55/92), Lee. Smith (16/27)
Week 2 – (57 plays) Fitzpatrick (51/89), Spiller (38/67), Choice (14/25), Johnson (50/88), Jones
(50/88), T.J. Graham (29/51), Brad Smith (11/19), Chandler (54/95), L. Smith (14/25).
Week 3 – (72 plays) Fitzpatrick (72/100), Choice (54/75), Spiller (13/18), Johnny White (5/7),
Corey McIntyre (10/14), Johnson (69/96), Jones (69/96), Graham (39/54), B. Smith (23/32),
Chandler (53/74), L. Smith (25/35).
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Week 4 – (69 plays) Fitzpatrick (69/100), Jackson (34/49), Spiller (31/45), Choice (3/4), White
(1/1), Dorin Dickerson (19/28), McIntyre (3/4), Johnson (69/100), Graham (58/84), Jones
(51/74), B. Smith (26/38), Chandler (45/65), L. Smith (5/7).
Week 5 – (46 plays) Fitzpatrick (44/96), Tyler Thigpen (2/4), Spiller (25/54), Jackson (21/46),
McIntyre (1/2), Johnson (46/100), Jones (45/98), Graham (38/83), B. Smith (7/15), Chandler
(42/91), L. Smith (5/11).
Week 6 – (69 plays) Fitzpatrick (69/100), Jackson (40/58), Spiller (30/43), Choice (1/1),
(58/84), L. Smith (14/20)
Week 7 – (61 plays) Fitzpatrick (61/100), Jackson (37/61), Spiller (29/48) McIntyre (10/16),
Johnson (61/100), Jones (57/93), Graham (48/79), B. Smith (7/11), Chandler (48/79), L. Smith
(8/13)
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
Week 9 – (57 plays) Fitzpatrick (57/100), Jackson (35/61), Spiller (26/46), Dickerson (7/12),
McIntyre (4/7), Jones (52/91), Johnson (46/81), Graham (33/58), Martin (11/19), B. Smith
(7/12), Chandler (55/96), L. Smith (9/16).
Week 10 – (77 plays) Fitzpatrick (77/100), Jackson (43/56), Spiller (36/47), Dickerson (4/5),
(64/83), L. Smith (19/25).
Week 11 – (67 plays) Fitzpatrick (67/100), Spiller (50/75), Choice (17/25), McIntyre (6/9),
Dickerson (4/6), Jones (65/97), Johnson (61/91), Graham (51/76), B. Smith (4/6), Chandler
(59/88), L. Smith (14/21).
Week 12 – (60 plays) Fitzpatrick (60/100), Jackson (32/53), Spiller (29/48), McIntyre (8/13),
Dickerson (2/3), Johnson (57/95), Jones (48/80), Graham (30/50), Martin (5/8), B. Smith (5/8),
Chandler (53/88), L. Smith (27/45)
Week 13 – (65 plays) Fitzpatrick (65/100), Jackson (45/69), Spiller (24/37), Choice (1/2),
McIntyre (7/11), T. Graham (53/82), Johnson (42/65), B. Smith (36/55), Martin (24/37), Marcus
Easley (4/6), Chandler (56/86), L. Smith (31/48).
Week 14 – (58 plays) Fitzpatrick (58/100), Spiller (31/53), Jackson (27/47), Choice (1/2),
(50/86), L. Smith (23/40)
Week 15 – (67 plays) Fitzpatrick (61/91), Thigpen (6/9), Spiller (55/82), Choice (12/18),
Dickerson (6/9), Graham (64/96), Johnson (61/91), B. Smith (51/76), Martin (14/21), Chandler
(55/82), L. Smith (17/25).
Week 16 – (68 plays) Fitzpatrick (68/100), Spiller (64/94), Choice (4/6), Dickerson (48/71),
Johnson (68/100), Graham (61/90), B. Smith (56/82), Martin (15/22), L. Smith (22/32), Chandler
(2/3).
Week 17 – (58 plays) Fitzpatrick (58/100), Spiller (48/83), Choice (10/17), McIntyre (10/17),
Johnson (53/91), Graham (52/90), B. Smith (51/88), Martin (23/40), L. Smith (37/64),
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Week 1 – (62 plays) Ryan Tannehill (62/100), Reggie Bush (47/76), Daniel Thomas (14/23),
Davone Bess (54/87), Brian Hartline (37/60), Anthony Armstrong (34/55), Legedu Naanee
(27/44), Anthony Fasano (53/85), Charles Clay (36/58).
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Week 2 – (75 plays) Tannehill (75/100), Bush (52/69), Lamar Miller (23/31), Jorvorskie Lane
(48/64), Bess (63/84), Hartline (59/79), Naanee (39/52), Marlon Moore (6/8), Fasano (60/80),
Clay (14/19), Jeron Mastrud (11/15).
Week 3 – (83 plays) Tannehill (83/100), Bush (17/20), Thomas (49/59), Miller (17/20), Lane
(20/24), Hartline (75/90), Bess (73/88), Armstrong (27/33), Naanee (18/22), Fasano (73/88),
Clay (36/43), Mastrud (10/12).
(35/45), Bess (67/87), Hartline (67/87), Naanee (37/48), Armstrong (6/8), Fasano (63/82), Clay
(21/27), Mastrud (12/16).
Week 5 – (66 plays) Tannehill (66/100), Bush (39/59), Thomas (27/41), Lane (36/55), Hartline
(58/88), Bess (54/82), Moore (19/29), Armstrong (1/2), Fasano (64/97), Clay (21/32), Mastrud
(6/9).
Week 6 – (54 plays) Tannehill (54/100), Bush (50/93), Miller (4/7), Lane (21/39), Bess (50/93),
Hartline (50/93), Moore (28/52), Armstrong (1/2), Fasano (49/91), Clay (12/22), Mastrud (4/7).
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
Week 8 – (61 plays) Matt Moore (50/82), Tannehill (11/18), Thomas (41/67), Bush (20/33),
Lane (22/36), Hartline (50/82), Bess (49/80), Marlon Moore (13/21), Jabar Gaffney (11/18),
Fasano (59/97), Clay (29/48), Mastrud (9/15).
Week 9 – (63 plays) Tannehill (63/100), Thomas (33/52), Bush (28/44), Miller (2/3), Lane
(12/19), Bess (55/87), Hartline (54/86), Gaffney (27/43), Marlon Moore (9/14), Fasano (60/95),
Clay (34/54), Mastrud (1/2)
Week 10 – (60 plays) Tannehill (55/92), Matt Moore (5/8), D. Thomas (29/48), Bush (17/28),
Miller (14/23), Marcus Thigpen (2/3), Lane (9/15), Bess (52/87), Gaffney (52/87), Hartline
(50/83), Marlon Moore (10/17), Fasano (43/72), Clay (22/37)
Week 11 – (58 plays) Tannehill (58/100), Thomas (32/55), Bush (26/45), Lane (17/29), Bess
(55/95), Hartline (55/95), Rishard Matthews (21/36), Marlon Moore (15/26), Fasano (54/93),
Clay (15/26).
Week 12 – (60 plays) Tannehill (60/100), Bush (31/52), Thomas (29/48), Lane (15/25), Hartline
(54/90), Bess (53/88), Matthews (22/37), Marlon Moore (6/10), Fasano (50/83), Clay (37/62)
Week 13 – (62 plays) Tannehill (62/100), Bush (34/55), Thomas (27/44), Thigpen (1/2), Lane
(8/13), Bess (59/95), Hartline (56/90), Matthews (26/42), Marlon Moore (17/27), Fasano
(51/82), Clay (31/50)
(8/13), Hartline (57/93), Bess (56/92), Matthews (28/46), Moore (19/31), Fasano (58/95), Clay
(16/26).
Week 15 – (71 plays) Tannehill (71/100), Bush (46/65), Thigpen (27/38), Miller (18/25),
Thomas (7/10), Lane (27/38), Hartline (58/82), Moore (37/52), Matthews (28/39), Binns (10/14),
Fasano (64/90), Mastrud (24/34), Clay (9/13).
Week 16 – (64 plays) Tannehill (64/100), Bush (41/64), L. Miller (26/41), Lane (16/25),
Hartline (60/94), Matthews (47/73), Binns (37/58), Moore (14/22), Fasano (58/91), Mastrud
(12/19), Michael Egnew (8/12).
Week 17 – (59 plays) Tannehill (59/100), Bush (36/61), Miller (24/41), Lane (7/12), Hartline
(54/92), Binns (49/83), Moore (3/5), Fasano (41/69), Egnew (17/29), Mastrud (5/8).
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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Week 1 – (67 plays) Tom Brady (67/100), Stevan Ridley (40/60), Danny Woodhead (14/21),
Brandon Bolden (6/9), Lex Hilliard (5/7), Brandon Lloyd (57/85), Wes Welker (42/63), Julien
Edelman (23/34), Matthew Slater (2/3), Rob Gronkowski (66/99), Aaron Hernandez (66/99),
Michael Hoomanawanui (12/18).
Week 2 – (80 plays) Brady (80/100), Ridley (43/54), Woodhead (37/46), Hilliard (4/5), Lloyd
(80/100), Edelman (73/91), Welker (62/78), Gronkowski (79/99), Hernandez (3/4),
Hoomanawanui (19/24).
Week 3 – (82 plays) Brady (82/100), Woodhead (52/63), Ridley (25/30), Bolden (5/6), Welker
(73/89), Lloyd (65/79), Deion Branch (43/52), Edelman (37/45), Slater (2/2), Gronkowski
(82/100), Hoomanawanui (17/21), Daniel Fells (5/6), Kellen Winslow (4/5).
Week 4 – (77 plays) Brady (77/100), Ridley (34/44), Bolden (26/34), Woodhead (10/13), Shane
Vereen (8/10), Lloyd (76/99), Welker (74/96), Gronkowski (68/88), Fells (45/58),
Hoomanawanui (7/9).
Week 5 – (94 plays) Brady (94/100), Ridley (42/45), Bolden (25/27), Woodhead (19/20),
Vereen (7/7), Lloyd (88/94), Welker (84/89), Branch (61/65), Slater (3/3), Gronkowski (94/100),
Fells (38/40),
Week 6 – (86 plays) Brady (86/100), Ridley (35/41), Woodhead (29/34), Bolden (12/14), Slater
(1/1), Lloyd (81/94), Welker (76/88), Slater (2/2), Gronkowski (69/80), Hernandez (38/44), Fells
(18/21).
Week 7 – (79 plays) Brady (79/100), Woodhead (31/39), Ridley (31/39), Vereen (17/22), Lloyd
(68/86), Welker (63/80), Branch (25/32), Edelman (7/9), Gronkowski (76/96), Hernandez
(56/71), Fells (18/23), Hoomanawanui (3/4).
Week 8 – (71 plays) Brady (61/86), Ryan Mallett (10/14), Ridley (29/41), Vereen (22/34),
Woodhead (20/28), Lloyd (53/75), Welker (48/68), Branch (47/66), Edelman (24/34), Slater
(4/6), Gronkowski (54/76), Fells (25/35), Hoomamawanui (18/25),
Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – (72 plays) Brady (72/100), Ridley (41/57), Woodhead (16/22), Vereen (15/21),
Welker (64/89), Lloyd (57/79), Branch (56/78), Gronkowski (70/97), Visanthe Shiancoe (9/12),
Hoomanawanui (9/12), Fells (3/4).
Week 11 – (61 plays) Brady (58/95), Mallet (3/5), Ridley (32/52), Vereen (19/31), Woodhead
(11/18), Welker (57/93), Edelman (52/85), Lloyd (34/56), Greg Salas (6/10), Slater 93/5),
Gronkowski (50/82), Shiancoe (26/43), Hoomanawanui (15/25).
Week 12 – (68 plays) Brady (65/96), Mallett (3/4), Ridley (42/62), Vereen (16/24), Woodhead
(11/16), Welker (61/90), Lloyd (60/88), Edelman (14/21), Slater (8/12), Fells (57/84),
Hernandez (55/81), Hoomanawanui (5/7).
Week 13 – (81 plays) Brady (81/100), Ridley (40/49), Woodhead (27/33), Vereen (14/17),
Welker (77/95), Lloyd (60/74), Edelman (50/62), Slater (1/1), Hernandez (81/100), Fells (46/57),
Hoomanawanui (6/7).
Week 14 – (76 plays) Brady (68/89), Mallet (8/11), Ridley (31/41), Vereen (23/30), Woodhead
(17/22), Bolden (6/8)Welker (66/87), Lloyd (66/87), Stallworth (20/26), Slater (14/18),
Hernandez (68/89), Hoomanawanui (46/61), Fells (12/16), Shiancoe (11/14).
Week 15 – (94 plays) Brady (94/100), Woodhead (75/80), Ridley (18/19), Vereen (202), Lloyd
(93/99), Welker (87/93), Branch (53/56), Hernandez (94/100), Hoomanawanui (39/41), Fells
(8/9).
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Week 16 – (73 plays) Brady (73/100), Ridley (35/48), Woodhead (24/33), Bolden
Vereen (3/4) Lloyd (71/97), Welker (69/95), Branch (34/47), Aiken (3/4), Hernandez
Hoomanawanui (49/67), Fells (9/12).
Week 17 – (77 plays) Brady (77/100), Ridley (31/40), Woodhead (27/35), Vereen
Bolden (6/8), Welker (72/94), Branch (59/77), Lloyd (31/40), Slater (3/4), Hernandez
Hoomanawanui (45/58), Gronkowski (24/31), Fells (23/30).
(12/16),
(56/77),
(14/18),
(48/62),
NEW YORK JETS
Week 1 – (65 plays) Mark Sanchez (59/91), Tim Tebow (9/14), Shonn Greene (44/68), Bilal
Powell (19/29), Joe McKnight (3/5), John Connor (29/45), Santonio Holmes (43/66), Stephen
Hill (32/49), Chaz Schilens (31/48), Jeremy Kerley (22/34), Dustin Keller (29/45), Jeff
Cumberland (28/43), Konrad Reuland (22/34).
Week 2 – (57 plays) Sanchez (54/95), Tebow (3/5), Powell (32/56), Greene (24/42), McKnight
(1/2), Connor (15/26), Holmes (49/86), S. Hill (40/70), Kerley (24/42), Schilens (6/11), Clyde
Gates (6/11), Cumberland (41/72), Reuland (25/44), Dedrick Epps (6/11).
Week 3 – (82 plays) Sanchez (79/96), Tebow (12/15), Greene (50/61), Powell (36/44),
McKnight (3/4), Holmes (59/72), Schilens (40/49), Kerley (30/37), S. Hill (30/37), Gates
(10/12), Reuland (47/57), Cumberland (40/49), Epps (23/28).
Week 4 – (53 plays) Sanchez (50/94), Tebow (7/13), Powell (32/60), Greene (18/34), Connor
(6/11), Schilens (49/92), Holmes (37/70), Kerley (29/55), Gates (13/25), Patrick Turner (8/15),
Cumberland (40/75), Reuland (15/28), Epps (4/8).
Week 5 – (57 plays) Sanchez (53/93), Tebow (7/12), Powell (25/44), Greene (24/42), Lex
Hilliard (15/26), McKnight (9/16), Schilens (52/91), Kerley (44/77), S. Hill (21/37), Gates
(9/16), Cumberland (50/88), Reuland (17/30)
Week 6 – (64 plays) Sanchez (60/94), Tebow (6/9), Greene (42/66), Hilliard (22/34), Powell
(14/22), McKnight (7/11), Schilens (51/80), Kerley (40/62), S. Hill (18/28), Josh Hill (13/20),
Antonio Cromartie (1/2), Keller (48/75), Cumberland (36/56), Reuland (4/6)
Week 7 – (82 plays) Sanchez (81/99), Tebow (5/6), Greene (51/62), Hilliard (37/45), McKnight
(10/12), Jonathan Grimes (4/5), S. Hill (66/80), Kerley (62/76), Schilens (33/40), J. Hill (12/15),
Keller (75/91), Reuland (30/37), Cumberland (9/11).
Week 8 – (82 plays) Sanchez (82/100), Tebow (5/6), Greene (65/79), Hilliard (64/78), Grimes
(7/9), Schilens (35/43), Gates (34/41), Keller (78/95), Reuland (16/20), Hayden Smith (1/1).
Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – (52 plays) Sanchez (45/87), Tebow (8/15), Greene (36/69), Hilliard (19/37), Powell
(11/21), S. Hill (33/63), Kerley (28/54), Gates (26/50), Schilens (17/33), J. Hill (2/4), Keller
(44/85), Cumberland (23/44), Reuland (7/13).
Week 11 – (65 plays) Sanchez (62/95), Tebow (3/5), Hilliard (31/48), Powell (28/43), Greene
(26/40), McKnight (7/11), Gates (47/72), Schilens (37/57), S. Hill (23/45), Kerley (19/29),
Keller (44/68), Cumberland (33/51), Reuland (10/15).
Week 12 – (70 plays) Sanchez (70/100), Powell (36/51), Greene (31/44), Hilliard (13/19),
McKnight (3/4), S. Hill (45/64), Kerley (43/61), Schilens (38/54), Gates (29/41), Keller (61/87),
Cumberland (28/40), Reuland (12/17).
Week 13 – (77 plays) Sanchez (44/57), Greg McElroy (32/42), Greene (37/48), Powell (33/43),
Hilliard (25/32), McKnight (4/5), Kerley (50/65), S. Hill (49/64), Schilens (39/51), Cumberland
(51/66), Reuland (46/60), Keller (27/35).
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Week 14 – (64 plays) Sanchez (64/100), Powell (29/45), Greene (29/45), Hilliard (17/27),
Schilens (47/73), Kerley (46/72), Gilyard (20/31), Hill (12/19), Cumberland (47/73), Reuland
(41/64), Smith (10/16).
Week 15 – (68 plays) Sanchez (61/90), Tebow (7/10), Greene (32/47), Powell (28/41), Hilliard
(16/24), McKnight (8/12), Kerley (54/79), Braylon Edwards (41/60), Gilyard (23/34), Gates
(16/24), Schilens (10/15), Cumberland (62/91), Reuland (36/53).
Week 16 – (61 plays) Greg McElroy (58/95), Powell (31/51), Greene (30/49), Hilliard (17/28),
McKnight (1/2), Kerley (50/82), Edwards (45/74), Gates (26/43), Schilens (20/33), Jordan White
(3/5), Cumberland (49/80), Reuland (21/34), Smith (3/5).
Week 17 – (75 plays) Sanchez (74/99), Tebow (1/1), Powell (43/57), Hilliard (31/41), Greene
(29/39), McKnight (1/1), Kerley (57/76), Edwards (57/76), White (27/36), Gates (23/31),
Cumberland (56/75), Reuland (31/41), Smith (3/4).
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Week 1 – (61 plays) Joe Flacco (52/85), Ray Rice (42/69), Bernard Pierce (12/20), Anthony
Allen (6/10), Vontae Leach (22/36), Torrey Smith (50/82), Anquan Boldin (47/77), Jacoby Jones
(27/44), Deonte Thompson (9/15), Tandon Doss (8/13), Dennis Pitta (43/70), Ed Dickson
(38/62).
Week 2 – (69 plays) Flacco (69/100), Rice (62/90), Pierce (7/1), Leach (16/23), Boldin (65/94),
Smith (65/94), Jones (27/39), Doss (10/14), Pitta (50/72), Dickson (40/58).
Week 3 – (72 plays) Flacco (72/100), Rice (56/78), Pierce (15/21), Leach (34/47), Smith
(70/97), Boldin (65/90), Jones (30/42), Doss (8/11), Pitta (42/58), Dickson (39/54).
Week 4 – (82 plays) Flacco (82/100), Tyrod Taylor (1/1), Rice (71/87), Pierce (10/12), Leach
(32/39), Boldin (80/98), Smith (67/82), Jones (34/41), Doss (16/20), Pitta (57/70), Dickson
(40/49).
Week 5 – (56 plays) Flacco (56/100), Taylor (1/2), Rice (48/86), Pierce (6/11), Allen (1/2),
Leach (30/54), Smith (56/100), Boldin (50/89), Jones (17/30), Doss (5/9), Dickson (37/66), Pitta
(29/52).
Week 6 – (51 plays) Flacco (51/100), Rice (45/88), Pierce (5/10), Leach (22/43), Smith (45/88),
Boldin (44/86), Jones (18/35), Doss (3/6), Dickson (32/63), Pitta (30/59), Billy Bajema (6/12)
Week 7 – (61 plays) Flacco (61/100), Rice (53/87), Pierce (4/7), Allen (1/2), Leach (14/23),
Smith (61/100), Boldin (60/98), Jones (20/33), Doss (18/30), Pitta (43/70), Dickson (31/51).
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
Week 9 – (66 plays) Flacco (66/100), Taylor (1/2), Rice (53/80), Pierce (12/18), Leach (43/65),
Smith (65/98), Boldin (47/71), Jones (22/33), Doss (8/12), Dickson (42/64), Pitta (33/50).
Week 10 – (64 plays) Flacco (58/91), Taylor (6/9), Rice (40/62), Pierce (19/30), Leach (35/55),
Smith (50/78), Boldin (42/66), Doss (26/41), Jones (22/34), Dickson (45/70), Pitta (32/50)
(59/98), Boldin (53/88), Jones (14/23), Doss (11/18), Dickson (60/100), Bajema (6/10), Pitta
(1/2).
Week 12 – (93 plays) Flacco (93/100), Rice (79/85), Pierce (14/15), Leach (31/33), Boldin
(87/94), Smith (85/91), Jones (46/49), Doss (22/24), Pitta (81/87), Dickson (11/12), Bajema
(8/9).
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(59/97), Boldin (56/92), Jones (10/16), Doss (8/13), Pitta (35/57), Bajema (32/52).
(60/100), Boldin (58/97), Jones (12/20), Doss (9/15), Pitta (44/73), Bajema (18/30).
Week 15 – (65 plays) Flacco (65/100), Rice (55/85), Pierce (6/9), Allen (4/6), Leach (11/17),
Boldin (64/98), Jones (38/58), Smith (36/55), Doss (31/48), David Reed (14/22), Pitta (65/100),
Bajema (1/2)
Week 16 – (85 plays) Flacco (80/94), Taylor (5/6), Rice (58/68), Pierce (22/26), Allen (5/6),
Leach (48/56), Smith (75/88), Boldin (59/69), Jones (40/47), LaQuan Williams (5/6), Reed (2/2),
Dickson (48/56), Pitta (43/51), Bajema (15/18).
Week 17 – (85 plays) Taylor (69/81), Flacco (16/19), Pierce (45/53), Allen (31/36), Rice (9/11),
Leach (2/2), Thompson (76/89), Reed (69/81), Jones (49/58), Smith (16/19), Dickson (75/88),
Bajema (41/48), Pitta (11/13).
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Week 1 – (70 plays) Andy Dalton (65/93), Bruce Gradkowski (5/7), BenJarvus Green-Ellis
(52/74), Brian Leonard (14/20), Cedric Peerman (4/6), Chris Pressley (18/26), A.J. Green
(62/89), Armon Binns (54/77), Andrew Hawkins (35/50), Brandon Tate (15/21), Mohamed Sanu
(5/7), Jermaine Gresham (64/91), Orson Charles (11/16).
Week 2 – (66 plays) Dalton (66/100), Green-Ellis (51/77), Leonard (10/15), Peerman (2/3),
Pressley (15/23), Green (63/95), Binns (46/70), Hawkins (32/48), Tate (14/21), Marvin Jones
(12/18), Gresham (65/98), Charles (15/23)
Week 3 – (60 plays) Dalton (60/100), Green-Ellis (38/63), Leonard (10/17), Bernard Scott
(9/15), Pressley (11/18), Green (59/98), Binns (50/83), Hawkins (30/50), Tate (6/10), Sanu (4/7),
Gresham (58/97), Charles (21/35).
Pressley (20/31), Green (48/74), Binns (40/62), Hawkins (32/49), Tate (13/20), Jones (11/17),
Sanu (6/9), Gresham (56/86), Charles (22/34).
Week 5 – (68 plays) Dalton (68/100), Green-Ellis (30/44), Leonard (21/31), Scott (11/16),
Pressley (8/12), Green (67/99), Binns (53/78), Hawkins (44/65), Tate (17/25), Sanu (3/4),
Week 6 – (71 plays) Dalton (71/100), Peerman (33/46), Green-Ellis (32/45), Leonard (5/7),
Pressley (10/14), Green (71/100), Hawkins (51/72), Binns (40/56), Jones (15/21), Tate (13/18),
Gresham (69/97), Charles (14/20)
Week 7 – (50 plays) Dalton (50/100), Green Ellis (34/68), Peerman (4/8), Pressley (14/28), A.
Green (49/98), Ryan Whalen (33/66), Hawkins (20/40), Sanu (18/36), Tate (9/18), Gresham
(44/88), Charles (9/18).
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
Week 9 – (76 plays) Dalton (76/100), Green-Ellis (42/55), Leonard (29/38), Pressley (4/5),
Green (76/100), Tate (65/86), Hawkins (57/75), Sanu (12/16), Binns (6/8), Gresham (75/99),
Charles (14/18).
Pressley (15/25), Green (55/93), Sanu (36/61), Hawkins (24/41), Tate (21/36), Whalen (4/7),
Gresham (58/98), Charles (26/44)
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Week 11 – (71 plays) Dalton (71/100), Green-Ellis (48/68), Peerman (8/11), Leonard (6/8),
Pressley (10/14), Green (63/89), Sanu (63/89), Tate (34/48), Whalen (15/21), Binns (11/15),
Pressley (24/35), Green (59/87), Sanu (57/84), Tate (21/31), Jones (9/13), Whalen (4/6),
Pressley (13/17), Green (75/99), Jones (67/88), Hawkins (55/72), Whalen (7/9), Gresham
(76/100), Charles (9/12).
Week 14 – (62 plays) Dalton (62/100), Green-Ellis (42/68), Leonard (17/27), Pressley (17/27)
Green (61/98), Jones (57/92), Hawkins (42/68), Whalen (4/6), Tate (4/6), Gresham (61/98),
Charles (5/8).
Week 15 – (78 plays) Dalton (78/100), Green-Ellis (52/67), Leonard (18/23), Daniel Herron
(9/12), Pressley (5/6), Jones (65/83), Green (62/79), Hawkins (39/50), Tate (15/19), Whalen
(10/13), Gresham (77/99), Charles (31/40).
Week 16 – (65 plays) Dalton (65/100), Green-Ellis (46/71), Leonard (7/11), Conner (9/14),
Green (63/97), Jones (60/92), Hawkins (34/52), Whalen (15/23), Tate (1/2), Gresham (62/95),
Charles (25/38).
Week 17 – (51 plays) Dalton (26/51), Gradkowski (25/49), Leonard (27/53), Peerman (17/33),
Herron (6/12), Conner (15/29), Jones (48/94), Green (26/51), Hawkins (23/45), Tate (23/45),
Whalen (3/6), Gresham (35/69), Charles (31/61).
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Week 1 – (61 plays) Brandon Weeden (61/100), Trent Richardson (42/69), Brandon Jackson
(19/31), Mohamed Massaquoi (52/85), Greg Little (49/80), Josh Gordon (43/70), Travis
Benjamin (22/36), Joshua Cribbs (1/2), Alex Smith (28/46), Ben Watson (24/39)
Week 2 – (65 plays) Weeden (65/100), Richardson (46/71), Chris Ogbonnaya (20/31),
Massaquoi (57/88), Little (55/85), Gordon (34/52), Benjamin (18/28), Cribbs (4/6), Watson
(54/83), Smith (17/26).
Week 3 – (63 plays) Weeden (63/100), Richardson (48/76), Ogbonnaya (20/32), Owen Marecic
(9/14), Little (61/97), Benjamin (39/62), Gordon (37/59), Massaquoi (29/46), Cribbs (2/3),
Watson (61/97), Justin Cameron (20/32).
Week 4 – (71 plays) Weeden (71/100), Richardson (48/68), Ogbonnaya (25/35), Marecic
(18/25), Little (67/94), Benjamin (45/63), Jordan Norwood (37/52), Gordon (30/42), Cribbs
(6/8), Watson (51/72), Cameron (26/37).
Week 5 – (58 plays) Weeden (58/100), Richardson (49/84), Ogbonnaya (11/19), Montario
Hardesty (1/2), Marecic (14/24), Little (53/91), Gordon (50/86), Norwood (39/67), Cribbs
(8/14), Watson (47/81), Cameron (17/29).
Week 6 – (65 plays) Weeden (65/100), Hardesty (30/46), Richardson (27/42), Ogbonnaya
(9/14), Marecic (23/35), Little (59/91), Gordon (50/77), Josh Cooper (21/32), Cribbs (9/14),
Watson (57/88), Cameron (31/48), Smith (3/5)
Week 7 – (60 plays) Weeden (60/100), Hardesty (24/40), Ogbonnaya (21/35), Richardson
(16/27), Marecic (13/22), Gordon (56/93), Little (54/90), Cooper (25/42), Benjamin (12/20),
Cribbs (6/10), Watson (42/70), Cameron (28/47).
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Week 8 – (63 plays) Weeden (63/100), Richardson (50/79), Ogbonnaya (10/16), Hardesty (4/6),
Gordon (59/84), Little (58/92), Cooper (14/22), Cribbs (6/10), Benjamin (4/6), Watson (60/95),
Cameron (28/44), Smith (22/35)
Week 9 – (70 plays) Weeden (70/100), Richardson (64/91), Ogbonnaya (7/10), Gordon (65/93),
Little (55/79), Benjamin (21/30), Massaquoi (19/27), Cribbs (3/4), Watson (62/89), Smith
(28/40), Cameron (26/37).
Week 10 – BYE WEEK
Week 11 – (70 plays) Weeden (70/100), Richardson (62/89), Hardesty (6/9), Ogbonnaya (3/4),
Gordon (67/96), Massaquoi (16/23), Benjamin (10/14), Cooper (8/11), Cribbs (2/3), Watson
(63/90), Cameron (25/36), Smith (24/34).
Week 12 – (67 plays) Weeden (61/91), Colt McCoy (6/9), Richardson (65/97), Hardesty (2/3),
Gordon (61/91), Little (55/82), Massaquoi (19/28), Benjamin (18/27), Cribbs (2/3), Watson
(58/87), Cameron (27/40), Smith (24/36).
Week 13 – (68 plays) Weeden (68/100), Richardson (56/82), Hardesty (12/18), Gordon (63/93),
Little (56/82), Massaquoi (21/31), Benjamin (17/25), Watson (60/88), Cameron (32/47), Smith
(23/34).
Week 14 – (70 plays) Weeden (65/93), McCoy (5/7), Richardson (49/70), Hardesty (19/27),
Gordon (57/81), Little (56/80), Massaquoi (20/29), Benjamin (5/7), Cribbs (4/6), Watson
(60/86), Smith (37/53), Cameron (36/51),
Week 15 – (53 plays) Weeden (53/100), Richardson (37/70), Hardesty (11/21), Ogbonnaya
(3/6), Gordon (52/98), Little (45/85), Massaquoi (19/36), Benjamin (9/17), Cribbs (3/6), Watson
(45/85), Cameron (22/42), Smith (18/34).
Week 16 – (64 plays) Weeden (36/56), McCoy (28/44), Richardson (43/67), Hardesty (14/22),
Brad Smelley (10/16), Ogbonnaya (7/11), Marecic (1/2), Little (62/97), Gordon (61/95),
Benjamin (40/62), Cooper (4/6), Cribbs (2/3), Watson (60/94), Smith (16/25).
Week 17 – (63 plays) Thaddeus Lewis (62/98), Josh Johnson (1/2), Hardesty (35/56),
Ogbonnaya (16/25), Smelley (16/25), Brandon Jackson (12/19), Little (58/92), Benjamin
(38/60), Gordon (30/48), Cooper (14/22), Cribbs (3/5), Watson (61/97), Smith (31/49).
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Week 1 – (76 plays) Ben Roethlisberger (76/100), Jonathan Dwyer (39/51), Isaac Redman
(22/29), Chris Rainey (10/13), Baron Batch (10/13), Andre Brown (68/89), Mike Wallace
(65/86), Emmanuel Sanders (55/72), Heath Miller (75/99)
Week 2 – (64 plays) Roethlisberger (64/100), Redman (24/38), Dwyer (22/34), B. Batch (10/16),
Rainey (9/14), Will Johnson (23/36), Brown (39/61), Sanders (38/59), Wallace (38/59), Jericho
Cotchery (10/16), Miller (64/100), Leonard Pope (27/42), David Paulson (15/23).
Week 3 – (73 plays) Roethlisberger (73/100), Redman (29/40), B. Batch (27/37), Rainey (9/12),
Dwyer (8/11), Johnson (16/22), Wallace (65/89), Brown (63/86), Sanders (52/71), Cotchery
(5/7), Miller (73/100), Pope (12/16), Paulson (5/7).
Week 4 – BYE WEEK
Week 5 – (73 plays) Roethlisberger (73/100), Redman (34/47), Rashard Mendenhall (22/30),
Rainey (18/25), Johnson (27/37), Wallace (62/85), Brown (60/82), Sanders (47/64), Cotchery
(9/12), H. Miller (73/100), Paulson (18/25), Pope (1/1).
Week 6 – (64 plays) Roethlisberger (64/100), Charlie Batch (25/39), Redman (17/27),
Mendenhall (16/25), Rainey (4/6), Johnson (24/38), Brown (50/78), Wallace (50/78), Sanders
(43/67), Cotchery (10/16), Miller (64/100), Paulson (14/22)
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Week 7 – (73 plays) Roethlisberger (73/100), Dwyer (46/63), Rainey (19/26), B. Batch (8/11),
Johnson (21/29), Wallace (59/81), Brown (57/78), Sanders (47/64), Cotchery (15/21), Miller
(73/100), Paulson (18/25), Pope (1/1)
Week 8 – (61 plays) Roethlisberger (61/100), Dwyer (38/62), B. Batch (11/18), Rainey (11/18),
Johnson (22/36), Wallace (49/80), Sanders (43/70), Brown (42/69), Cotchery (3/5), Miller
(61/100), Paulson (21/34), Pope (4/7).
Week 9 – (70 plays) Roethlisberger (70/100), Redman (53/76), Rainey (11/16), B. Batch (3/4),
Johnson (32/46), Sanders (55/79), Wallace (54/77), Cotchery (42/60), Brown (10/14), Miller
(66/94), Paulson (21/30), Pope (2/3)
Week 10 – (65 plays) Roethlisberger (33/51), Byron Leftwich (32/49), Dwyer (40/62), Redman
(23/35), Rainey (2/3), Johnson (30/46), Wallace (65/100), Sanders (47/72), Cotchery (35/54),
Miller (62/95), Paulson (20/31), Pope (1/2).
Week 11 – (72 plays) Leftwich (72/100), Dwyer (33/46), Mendenhall (29/40), Redman (5/7), B.
Batch (3/4), Rainey (2/3), Johnson (32/44), Sanders (64/89), Wallace (59/82), Cotchery (39/54),
David Gilreath (3/4), Miller (72/100), Paulson (18/25), Pope (1/1).
Week 12 – (63 plays) C. Batch (63/100), Dwyer (19/30), Rainey (18/29), Mendenhall (8/13),
Redman (5/8), Johnson (32/51), Wallace (58/92), Sanders (53/84), Gilreath (21/33), Plaxico
Burress (11/17), Miller (63/100), Paulson (26/41), Pope (1/2).
Week 13 – (66 plays) C. Batch (66/100), Dwyer (40/61), Redman (22/33), Rainey (2/3), Johnson
(28/42), Brown (51/77), Sanders (48/73), Wallace (41/62), Burress (1/2), Miller (66/100),
Paulson (28/42), Pope (3/5).
Week 14 – (65 plays) Roethisberger (65/100), Dwyer (23/35), Rainey (21/32), Redman (17/26),
Johnson (9/14), Brown (61/94), Wallace (61/94), Sanders (41/63), Cotchery (12/18), Burress
(7/11), Miller (65/100), Paulson (8/12).
Week 15 – (61 plays) Roethlisberger (61/100), Dwyer (24/39), Redman (20/33), Rainey (14/23),
Johnson (13/21), Wallace (58/95), Brown (55/90), Cotchery (29/48), Sanders (11/18), Miller
(59/97), Paulson (21/34), Pope (1/2).
Week 16 – (64 plays) Roethlisberger (64/100), Dwyer (23/36), Redman (22/34), Mendenhall
(16/25), Rainey (3/5), Johnson (24/38), Brown (54/84), Wallace (51/80), Sanders (31/48),
Cotchery (14/22), Miller (59/92), Paulson (23/36),
Week 17 – (57 plays) Roethlisberger (57/100), Dwyer (25/44), Redman (16/28), Mendenhall
(13/23), Rainey (3/5), Sanders (47/82), Brown (44/77), Cotchery (29/51), Burress (15/26), Ryan
Clark (2/3), Paulson (54/95), Pope (12/21).
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON TEXANS
Week 1 – (69 plays) Matt Schaub (69/100), Arian Foster (49/71), Ben Tate (21/30), James Casey
(51/74), Andre Johnson (54/78), Kevin Walter (48/70), Keshawn Martin (10/14), Lester Jean
(10/14), Owen Daniels (59/86), Garrett Graham (42/61).
Week 2 – (85 plays) Schaub (85/100), Foster (55/65), Tate (22/26), Forsett (8/9), Casey (47/55),
Johnson (61/72), Walter (54/64), K. Martin (35/41), Jean (23/27), Daniels (62/73), Graham
(47/55).
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Week 3 – (68 plays) Schaub (67/99), T.J. Yates (1/1), Foster (53/78), Tate (15/22), Casey
(37/54), Johnson (54/79), Walter (47/69), Martin (21/31), Jean (13/19), Daniels (62/91), Graham
(38/56)
Week 4 – (60 plays) Schaub (60/100), Foster (46/77), Tate (12/20), Justin Forsett (2/3), Casey
(33/55), Tyler Clutts (2/3), Johnson (45/75), Walter (39/65), Martin (22/37), DeVier Posey
(14/23), Daniels (49/82), Graham (33/55).
Week 5 – (66 plays) Schaub (66/100), Foster (55/83), Forsett (11/17), Casey (36/55), Johnson
(57/86), Walter (4/67), Martin (18/27), Posey (8/12), Daniels (61/92), Graham (40/61).
Week 6 – (71 plays) Schaub (62/87), Yates (9/13), Foster (45/63), Forsett (16/23), Tate (6/8),
Casey (22/31), Clutts (3/4), Johnson (57/80), Walter (51/72), Martin (35/49), Jean (13/18), Posey
(9/13), Daniels (57/80), Graham (38/54)
Week 7 – (80 plays) Schaub (80/100), Foster (56/70), Tate (16/20), Forsett (7/9), Casey (30/38),
Clutts (6/8), Johnson (69/86), Walter (56/70), Martin (21/26), Posey (14/18), Jean (10/12),
Daniels (59/74), Graham (53/66).
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
(60/94), Walter (57/89), Martin (13/20), Jean (3/5), Daniels (44/69), Graham (39/61).
Week 10 – (63 plays) Schaub (63/100), Foster (57/90), Forsett (6/10), Casey (46/73), Clutts
(5/8), Johnson (59/94), Walter (53/84), Martin (7/11), Jean (6/10), Posey (5/8), Graham (56/89).
Week 11 – (94 plays) Schaub (94/100), Foster (65/69), Forsett (16/17), Casey (38/40), Clutts
(1/1), Johnson (87/93), Walter (81/86), Jean (29/31), Martin (23/24), Daniels (77/82), Graham
(47/50).
(71/90), Walter (62/78), Martin (21/27), Jean (16/20), Graham (54/68), Daniels (44/56),
Week 13 – (73 plays) Schaub (73/100), Foster (46/63), Forsett (18/25), Tate (5/7), Casey
(54/74), Johnson (70/96), Walter (63/86), Martin (19/26), Jean (9/12), Daniels (66/90), Graham
(15/21).
Week 14 – (69 plays) Schaub (59/86), Yates (10/14), Foster (42/61), Tate (19/28), Casey
(50/72), Clutts (7/10), Johnson (55/80), Walter (45/65), Jean (26/38), Martin (17/25), Posey
(14/20), Daniels (59/86),
Week 15 – (69 plays) Schaub (69/100), Foster (61/88), Tate (8/12), Casey (24/35), Johnson
(69/100), Walter (38/55), Posey (35/51), Jean (12/17), Martin (1/1), Daniels (56/81), Graham
(41/59).
Week 16 – (56 plays) Schaub (53/95), Yates (3/5), Foster (31/55), Tate (17/30), Forsett (7/12),
Casey (13/23), Johnson (49/88), Walter (43/77), Posey (28/50), Jean (4/7), Daniels (51/91),
Graham (35/62).
Week 17 – (62 plays) Schaub (62/100), Foster (60/97), Tate (2/3), Casey (24/39), Johnson
(59/95), Walter (38/61), Posey (33/53), Jean (2/3), Martin (1/2), Daniels (58/94), Graham
(33/53).
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Week 1 – (66 plays) Andrew Luck (66/100), Donald Brown (28/42), Mewelde Moore (19/29),
Vick Ballard (11/17), Reggie Wayne (60/91), Donnie Avery (66/100), Kris Adams (43/65),
LaVon Brazill (8/12), Coby Fleener (54/82), Dwayne Allen (36/55)
Week 2 – (67 plays) Luck (67/100), Brown (32/48), Ballard (14/21), Moore (13/19), Wayne
(61/91), Avery (62/93), K. Adams (39/58), Fleener (50/75), Allen (47/70), D. Jones (8/12).
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Week 3 – (80 plays) Luck (80/100), D. Brown (41/51), Moore (21/26), Ballard (10/12), Wayne
(70/88), Avery (78/98), T.Y. Hilton (39/49), Austin Collie (14/18), Adams (12/15), Allen
(59/74), Fleener (43/54), Dominique Jones (13/16).
Week 4 – BYE WEEK
Week 5 – (96 plays) Luck (96/100), Brown (68/71), Ballard (22/23), Delone Carter (1/1), Avery
(94/98), Wayne (90/94), Hilton (73/76), Brazill (12/12), Palmer (2/2), D. Allen (57/59), Fleener
(53/55), D. Jones (7/7)
Week 6 – (71 plays) Luck (71/100), M. Moore (29/41), Ballard (29/41), D. Carter (6/8), Wayne
(69/97), Avery (67/94), Hilton (51/72), Brazill (14/20), Nathan Palmer (6/8), Allen (35/49),
Fleener (35/49)
Week 7 – (72 plays) Luck (72/100), Ballard (40/56), Carter (19/26), Moore (11/15), Wayne
(72/100), Avery (59/82), Hilton (44/61), Brazill (7/10), Allen (57/79), Fleener (35/49), Weslye
Saunders (12/17).
Week 8 – (76 plays) Luck (76/100), Ballard (32/42), Brown (29/38), Moore (12/16), Carter
(2/3), Avery (71/93), Wayne (68/89), Hilton (50/66), Brazill (8/11), Allen (63/83), Fleener
(18/24), Saunders (15/20)
Week 9 – (80 plays) Luck (80/100), Ballard (54/68), Carter (15/19), Robert Hughes (6/8),
Brown (3/4), Wayne (78/98), Hilton (57/71), Avery (50/62), Brazill (26/32), Allen (73/91),
Saunders (29/36).
Week 10 – (67 plays) Luck (67/100), Ballard (33/49), Brown (28/42), Hughes (7/10), Carter
(3/4), Wayne (51/76), Avery (50/75), Hilton (30/45), Brazill (17/25), Allen (66/99), Saunders
(33/49)
Week 11 – (78 plays) Luck (78/100), Ballard (46/59), Brown (19/24), Carter (9/12), Hughes
(4/5), Wayne (73/94), Hilton (56/72), Brazill (41/53), Avery (34/44), Palmer (8/10), Allen
(70/90), Saunders (20/26), Kyle Miller (3/4).
Week 12 – (73 plays) Luck (73/100), Ballard (38/52), Brown (27/37), Hughes (6/8), Avery
(71/97), Wayne (64/88), Hilton (39/53), Brazill (15/21), Allen (69/95), Saunders (29/40).
Week 13 – (77 plays) Luck (77/100), Ballard (42/55), Brown (24/31), Wayne (77/100), Avery
(76/99), Hilton (68/88), Brazill (18/23), Allen (56/73), Fleener (23/30), Saunders (1/1).
Week 14 – (70 plays) Luck (70/100), Ballard (47/67), Carter (9/13), Hughes (5/7), Avery
(64/91), Wayne (59/84), Hilton (46/66), Brazill (14/20), Allen (58/83), Fleener (32/46), Saunders
(14/20).
Week 15 – (61 plays) Luck (61/100), Ballard (47/77), Moore (12/20), Wayne (60/98), Avery
Week 16 – (67 plays) Luck (67/100), Ballard (58/87), Moore (5/7), Avery (63/94), Wayne
Week 17 – (68 plays) Luck (68/100), Ballard (57/84), Moore (6/9), Wayne (65/96), Avery
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Week 1 – (79 plays) Blaine Gabbert (79/100), Maurice Jones-Drew (48/61), Greg Jones (34/43),
Rashad Jennings (18/23), Jalen Parmele (3/4), Justin Blackmon (75/95), Laurent Robinson
(74/94), Mike Thomas (42/53), Cecil Shorts (14/18), Marcedes Lewis (53/67)
Week 2 – (43 plays) Gabbert (38/88), Chad Henne (5/12), Jones-Drew (39/91), Jones (13/30),
Montell Owens (6/14), Robinson (38/88), Blackmon (36/84), Thomas (20/47), Shorts (10/23),
Lewis (38/88), Zach Potter (15/35).
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Week 3 – (60 plays) Gabbert (60/100), Jones-Drew (58/97), Parmele (3/5), Jones (27/45),
Owens (9/15), Blackmon (48/80), L. Robinson (5/8), Kevin Elliott (41/68), Shorts (20/33),
Thomas (15/25), Lewis (54/90), Potter (20/33).
Week 4 – (60 plays) Gabbert (60/100), Jones-Drew (44/73), Jennings (19/32), Parmele (1/2),
Jones (24/40), Blackmon (52/87), Thomas (29/48), Shorts (27/45), Elliott (25/42), Lewis
(34/57), Potter (15/25), Maurice Stovall (3/5)
Week 5 – (58 plays) Gabbert (58/100), Jones-Drew (49/84), Jennings (10/17), Parmele (2/3),
Jones (10/17), Owens (2/3), Blackmon (55/95), Thomas (46/79), Elliott (34/59), Shorts (15/26),
Lewis (48/83), Potter (12/21), Stovall (2/3).
Week 6 – BYE WEEK
Week 7 – (64 plays) Henne (36/56), Gabbert (27/42), Jennings (62/97), Parmele (8/12), JonesDrew (2/3), Jones (18/28), Shorts (62/97), Blackmon (50/78), Thomas (30/47), Elliott (11/17),
Lewis (52/81), Potter (17/27), Stovall (9/14).
Week 8 – (77 plays) Gabbert (77/100), Jennings (72/94), Parmele (7/9), Jones (14/18), Shorts
(74/96), Blackmon (71/92), Thomas (51/66), Elliott (11/14), Michael Spurlock (4/5), Lewis
(65/84), Potter (10/13), Stovall (3/4).
Week 9 – (62 plays) Gabbert (62/100), Jennings (40/65), Parmele (26/42), Will Ta’ufo’ou
(8/13), Shorts (60/97), Blackmon (58/94), Robinson (45/73), Spurlock (17/27), Lewis (47/76),
Potter (7/11).
Week 10 – (70 plays) Gabbert (50/71), Henne (20/29), Jennings (40/57), Parmele (27/39),
Tu’ufo’ou (3/4), Owens (6/9), Blackmon (69/99), Shorts (69/99), Robinson (57/81), Spurlock
(32/46), Lewis (41/59), Potter (3/4), Stovall (1/1)
Week 11 – (66 plays) Henne (61/92), Gabbert (5/8), Parmele (61/92), Ta’ufo’ou (18/27),
Jennings (7/11), Shorts (63/95), Blackmon (52/79), Robinson (19/29), Spurlock (15/23), Lewis
(57/86), Potter (20/30), Stovall (1/2)
Week 12 – (64 plays) Henne (64/10), Jennings (47/73), Tu’ufo’ou (16/25), Parmele (16/25),
Owens (5/8), Shorts (56/88), Blackmon (55/86), Spurlock (23/36), Jordan Shipley (8/12), Elliott
(7/11), Lewis (57/89), Potter (15/23), Stovall (2/3)
Week 13 – (72 plays) Henne (72/100), Jennings (16/22), Richard Murphy (6/8), Owens (54/75),
Jones (14/19), Blackmon (66/92), Shorts (54/75), Shipley (44/61), Elliott (30/42), Quan Cosby
(1/1), Lewis (57/79), Potter (13/18), Stovall (1/1).
Week 14 – (72 plays) Henne (72/100), Murphy (10/14), Todman (7/10), Owens (49/68), Jones
(27/38), Blackmon (72/100), Elliott (56/78), Shipley (40/56), Clemons (18/25), Lewis (53/74),
Potter (16/22).
Week 15 – (63 plays) Henne (63/100), Murphy (12/19), Ta’ufo’ou (3/5), Owens (44/70), Jones
(25/40), Shorts (63/100), Blackmon (57/90), Shipley (37/59), Clemons (11/17), Lewis (48/76),
Potter (7/11).
Week 16 – (79 plays) Henne (79/100), Murphy (25/32), Owens (45/57), Jones (16/20),
Blackmon (75/95), Shorts (69/87), Shipley (62/78), Clemons (18/23), Mike Brown (6/8), Lewis
(64/81), Potter (8/10), Isaiah Stanback (6/8).
Week 17 – (74 plays) Henne (74/100), Keith Toston (49/66), Murphy (16/22), Jones (17/23),
Blackmon (74/100), Clemons (67/91), Brown (7/9), Jerell Jackson (4/5), Lewis (64/86), Potter
(5/7), Stanback (3/4).
TENNESSEE TITANS
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Fantasy Articles
Week 1 – (65 plays) Jake Locker (50/77), Matt Hasselbeck (15/23), Chris Johnson (48/74),
Darius Reynaud (18/28), Jamie Harper (4/6), Quinn Johnson (10/15), Kendall Wright (52/80),
Damian Williams (50/77), Nate Washington (45/69), Lavelle Hawkins (19/29), Jared Cook
(60/92), Craig Stevens (11/17), Taylor Thompson (8/12).
Week 2 – (42 plays) Locker (42/100), C. Johnson (41/98), Reynaud (1/2), Q. Johnson (3/7),
Williams (39/93), Wright (34/81), Washington (22/52), Kenny Britt (19/45), Cook (35/83),
Stevens (14/33), Thompson (2/5).
Week 3 – (63 plays) Locker (63/100), C. Johnson (50/79), Reynaud (7/11), Harper (1/2), Q.
Johnson (12/19), Washington (58/92), Wright (47/75), Britt (37/59), Williams (29/46), Cook
(18/29), Stevens (49/78), Thompson (7/7).
Week 4 – (62 plays) Hasselbeck (55/89), Locker (7/11), C. Johnson (49/79), Javon Ringer
(9/15), Reynaud (3/5), Washington (58/94), Wright (53/85), Williams (42/68), Hawkins (8/13),
Stevens (39/63), Cook (24/39), Thompson (18/29).
Week 5 – (71 plays) Hasselbeck (63/89), Rusty Smith (7/10), C. Johnson (48/68), Ringer
(15/21), Reynaud (7/10), Q. Johnson (11/15), Washington (67/94), Williams (47/66), Wright
(47/66), Britt (28/39), Cook (43/61), Stevens (25/35), Thompson (15/21).
Week 6 – (71 plays) Hasselbeck (71/100), C. Johnson (62/87), Reynaud (5/7), Harper (3/4), Q.
Johnson (23/32), Washington (55/77), Britt (45/63), Wright (31/44), Williams (26/37), Cook
(44/62), Thompson (15/21).
Week 7 – (64 plays) Hasselbeck (64/100), C. Johnson (44/69), Harper (10/16), Reynaud (9/14),
Q. Johnson (24/38), Washington (51/80), Britt (44/69), Wright (30/47), Williams (19/30),
Week 8 – (59 plays) Hasselbeck (59/100), C. Johnson (51/86), Harper (4/7), Reynaud (2/3), Q.
Johnson (25/42), Washington (43/73), Britt (38/64), Wright (30/51), Williams (17/29), Hawkins
(2/3), Stevens (42/71), Cook (25/42), Thompson (16/27)
Week 9 – (57 plays) Hasselbeck (57/100), C. Johnson (52/91), Reynaud (3/5), Harper (2/4), Q.
Johnson (16/28), Washington (45/79), Britt (43/75), Wright (27/47), Williams (24/42), Cook
(35/61), Stevens (28/49), Thompson (10/18).
Week 10 – (61 plays) Locker (50/82), Hasselbeck (11/18), C. Johnson (49/80), Reynaud (10/16),
Harper (2/3), Q. Johnson (24/39), Washington (42/69), Britt (33/54), Williams (27/44), Wright
(25/41), Stevens (46/75), Thompson (24/39), Cook (23/38).
Week 12 – (71 plays) Locker (71/100), C. Johnson (53/75), Reynaud (16/23), Q. Johnson
(17/24), Washington (57/80), Britt (54/76), Wright (39/55), Williams (25/35), Cook (46/65),
Stevens (37/52), Thompson (11/15).
Week 13 – (75 plays) Locker (75/100), C. Johnson (72/96), Reynaud (3/4), Q. Johnson (4/5),
Washington (68/91), Britt (66/88), Wright (54/72), Williams (14/19), Cook (64/85), Stevens
(21/28), Thompson (9/12).
Week 14 – (65 plays) Locker (65/100), C. Johnson (62/95), Reynaud (2/3), Harper (1/2), Q.
Johnson (19/29), Washington (57/88), Britt (52/80), Wright (37/57), Michael Preston (12/18),
Week 15 – (59 plays) Locker (59/100), C. Johnson (58/98), Harper (1/2), Q. Johnson (21/36),
Britt (52/88), Washington (44/75), Wright (22/37), Preston (15/25), Hawkins (4/7), Stevens
(59/100), Thompson (19/32).
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Fantasy Articles
Week 16 – (59 plays) Locker (59/100), C. Johnson (37/63), Harper (22/37), Q. Johnson (12/20),
Britt (54/92), Washington (47/80), Williams (22/37), Preston (19/32), Hawkins (12/20), Stevens
(49/83), Thompson (21/36).
Week 17 – (54 plays) Locker (54/100), C. Johnson (39/72), Collin Mooney (10/19), Reynaud
(4/7), Q. Johnson (23/43), Britt (35/65), Washington (31/57), Wright (30/56), Preston (15/28),
Hawkins (6/11), Thompson (53/98), Brandon Barden (23/43).
AFC WEST
DENVER BRONCOS
Week 1 – (58 plays) Peyton Manning (58/100), Willis McGahee (40/69), Knowshon Moreno
(16/28), Lance Ball (2/3), Demaryius Thomas (54/93), Eric Decker (53/91), Brandon Stokley
(15/26), Matthew Willis (4/7), Joel Dreessen (50/86), Jacob Tamme (48/83).
Week 2 – (73 plays) Manning (73/100), McGahee (49/63), Ball (13/18), Moreno (11/15),
Thomas (73/100), Decker (70/96), Stokley (59/81), Willis (7/10), Dreessen (57/78), Tamme
(25/34).
Week 3 – (81 plays) Manning (81/100), Ball (41/51), McGahee (28/35), Ronnie Hillman
(12/15), Chris Gronkowski (5/6), Decker (78/96), Thomas (78/96), Stokley (51/63), Willis (5/6),
Tamme (56/69), Dreessen (50/62).
Week 4 – (80 plays) Manning (79/99), Brock Osweiler (1/1), McGahee (36/45), Ball (22/28),
Hillman (21/26), Gronkowski (5/6), Decker (75/94), Thomas (74/92), Stokley (35/44), Andre
Caldwell (30/38), Dreessen (58/72), Tamme (43/54), Julius Thomas (1/1).
Week 5 – (67 plays) Manning (67/100), McGahee (42/63), Ball (9/13), Hillman (5/7),
Gronkowski (4/6), Decker (64/96), Thomas (60/90), Stokley (51/76), Willis (11/16), Caldwell
(1/1), Dreessen (43/64), Tamme (43/64), Virgil Green (1/1).
Week 6 – (56 plays) Manning (56/100), McGahee (46/82), Hillman (9/16), Ball (1/2),
Gronkowski (3/5), Thomas (54/96), Decker (51/91), Stokley (32/57), Willis (4/7), Dreessen
(39/70), Tamme (36/64), Green (5/9)
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
Week 8 – (74 plays) Manning (71/96), Osweiler (3/4), McGahee (43/58), Hillman (27/36), Ball
(3/4), Gronkowski (4/5), Decker (68/92), Thomas (62/84), Stokley (26/35), Willis (10/14),
Dreessen (67/91), Green (34/46), Tamme (25/34).
Week 9 – (63 plays) Manning (63/100), McGahee (50/79), Hillman (13/21), Ball (1/2),
Gronkowski (2/3), Thomas (58/92), Decker (56/89), Stokley (34/54), Willis (12/19), Dreessen
(47/75), Tamme (28/44), Green (13/21).
Week 10 – (64 plays) Manning (64/100), McGahee (43/67), Hillman (18/28), Gronkowski (2/3),
Decker (63/98), Thomas (60/94), Stokley (47/73), Willis (7/11), Trindon Holliday (3/5),
Dreessen (46/72), Tamme (21/33), Green (10/16).
Week 11 – (70 plays) Manning (70/100), Hillman (32/46), Ball (21/30), McGahee (14/20),
Gronkowski (1/1), Decker (67/96), Thomas (65/93), Stokley (58/83), Willis (13/19), Dreessen
(48/69), Tamme (26/37), Green (5/7).
Week 12 – (64 plays) Manning (64/100), Moreno (55/86), Hillman (7/11), Ball (1/2), Decker
(63/98), Thomas (62/97), Stokley (52/81), Willis (10/16), Holliday (2/3), Dreessen (43/67),
Tamme (23/36), V. Green (1/2).
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Fantasy Articles
Week 13 – (75 plays) Manning (75/100), Moreno (63/84), Hillman (9/12), Ball (3/4),
Gronkowski (3/4), Thomas (70/93), Decker (67/89), Willis (22/29), Dreessen (68/91), Tamme
(56/75), Green (8/11).
Week 14 – (84 plays) Manning (84/100), Moreno (67/80), Hillman (15/18), Ball (1/1),
Gronkowski (4/5), Decker (79/94), Thomas (62/74), Stokley (30/36), Willis (27/32), Caldwell
(27/32), Holliday (1/1), Dreessen (59/70), Tamme (29/35), Green (14/17).
Week 15 – (77 plays) Manning (74/96), Osweiler (3/4), Moreno (42/55), Hillman (22/29),
Hester (16/21), Thomas (70/91), Decker (68/88), Stokley (26/34), Willis (13/17), Holliday (1/1),
Dreessen (68/88), Green (43/56), Tamme (11/14).
Week 16 – (82 plays) Manning (75/91), Osweiler (7/9), Moreno (58/71), Hillman (13/16),
Decker (73/89), Thomas (66/80), Stokley (58/71), Willis (28/34), Dreessen (60/73), Tamme
(27/33), Green (10/12).
Week 17 – (78 plays) Manning (59/76), Osweiler (19/24), Ball (26/33), Moreno (26/33),
Hillman (6/8), Hester (24/31), Mitch Unrein (3/4), Decker (55/71), Thomas (53/68), Willis
(26/33), Stokley (23/29), Caldwell (17/22), Dreessen (62/79), Tamme (34/44), Green (32/41).
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Week 1 – (69 plays) Matt Cassel (69/100), Jamaal Charles (29/42), Shaun Draughn (22/32),
Peyton Hillis (19/28), Dwayne Bowe (60/87), Dexter McCluster (57/83), Steve Breaston (52/75),
Jon Baldwin (22/32), Tony Moeaki (45/65), Kevin Boss (32/46)
Week 2 – (73 plays) Cassel (73/100), Charles (20/27), Hillis (32/44), Draughn (26/36), Bowe
(71/97), Breaston (40/55), McCluster (32/44), Terrance Copper (4/5), Moeaki (66/90), Boss
(17/23), Jake O’Connell (9/12).
Week 3 – (94 plays) Cassel (94/100), Charles (66/70), Nate Eachus (32/34), Draughn (22/23),
Hillis (9/10), Bowe (89/95), Baldwin (59/63), Breaston (47/50), McCluster (23/24), Copper
(8/9), Moeaki (93/99), Steve Maneri (22/23).
Week 4 – (72 plays) Cassel (72/100), Charles (42/58), Draughn (23/32), Eachus (17/24), Cyrus
Gray (10/14), Bowe (68/94), Baldwin (54/75), McCluster (46/64), Breaston (14/19), Copper
(3/4), Moeaki (63/88), Maneri (20/28).
Week 5 – (71 plays) Cassel (62/87), Brady Quinn (9/13), Charles (40/56), Draughn (24/34),
Cyrus Gray (8/11), Eachus (4/6), Bowe (69/97), McCluster (31/44), Breaston (6/8), Copper
(2/3), Moeaki (66/93), Maneri (51/72).
Week 6 – (69 plays) Quinn (69/100), Draughn (32/46), Eachus (28/41), Charles (28/41), Bowe
(61/88), Baldwin (42/61), McCluster (37/54), Copper (8/12), Breaston (4/6), Moeaki (65/94),
Maneri (38/55)
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
Week 8 – (62 plays) Cassel (51/82), Quinn (11/18), Charles (32/52), Draughn (18/29), Hillis
(13/21), Eachus (5/8), Bowe (61/98), McCluster (47/76), Baldwin (23/37), Breaston (23/37),
Copper (5/8), Moeaki (61/98), O’Connell (14/23)
Week 9 – (62 plays) Cassel (62/100), Charles (28/45), Hillis (28/45), Draughn (6/10), Bowe
(54/87), McCluster (48/77), Baldwin (20/32), Breaston (15/24), Copper (14/23), Moeaki (60/97),
Maneri (20/32), O’Connell (10/16).
Week 10 – (64 plays) Cassel (64/100), Charles (43/67), Hillis (21/33), Eachus (18/28), Bowe
(62/97), Baldwin (36/56), McCluster (29/45), Copper (13/20), Devon Wylie (6/9), Moeaki
(63/98), Maneri (29/45)
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Week 11 – (61 plays) Cassel (31/51), Quinn (30/49), Charles (41/67), Draughn (14/23), Eachus
(6/10), Hillis (6/10), McCluster (49/80), Breaston (45/74), Copper (33/54), Bowe (23/38), Wylie
(18/30), Moeaki (60/98), Maneri (10/16).
Week 12 – (61 plays) Quinn (61/100), Charles (44/72), Hillis (10/16), Eachus (9/15), Draughn
(8/13), Bowe (60/98), Baldwin (26/43), McCluster (20/33), Copper (19/31), Jamar Newsome
(14/23), Moeaki (61/100), Maneri (34/56).
Week 13 – (69 plays) Quinn (69/100), Charles (43/62), Patrick DiMarco (38/55), Hillis (21/30),
Cray (4/6), Bowe (53/77), Newsome (25/36), McCluster (21/30), Baldwin (20/29), Copper (6/9),
Moeaki (68/99), Maneri (42/61).
Week 14 – (54 plays) Quinn (54/100), Charles (33/61), Draughn (12/22), DiMarco (11/20),
Hillis (8/15), Newsome (33/61), Copper (32/59), McCluster (32/59), Baldwin (29/54), Bowe
(8/15), Moeaki (52/96), Maneri (20/37).
Week 15 – (49 plays) Quinn (49/100), Charles (31/63), Draughn (12/24), Hillis (6/12), DiMarco
(4/8), Baldwin (47/96), Newsome (39/80), McCluster (36/73), Wylie (7/14), Moeaki (48/98),
Maneri (15/31).
Week 16 – (72 plays) Quinn (72/100), DiMarco (50/96), Charles (38/53), Hillis (30/42),
Draughn (4/6), Newsome (45/62), Baldwin (40/56), McCluster (37/51), Wylie (29/40), Copper
(2/3), Maneri (72/100),
Week 17 – (50 plays) Quinn (50/100), Charles (19/38), DiMarco (17/34), Draughn (16/32), Gray
(8/16), Hillis (7/14), Newsome (35/70), Baldwin (32/64), McCluster (29/58), Wylie (18/36),
Breaston (10/20), Moeaki (36/72), Maneri (23/46).
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Week 1 – (72 plays) Carson Palmer (72/100), Darren McFadden (68/94), Mike Goodson (3/4),
Taiwan Jones (1/1), Marcel Reece (38/53), Owen Schmitt (8/11), Darrius Heyward-Bey (66/92),
Rod Streater (71/99), Derek Hagan (25/35), Juron Criner (2/3), Brandon Myers (68/94), Richard
Gordon (7/10), David Ausberry (3/4).
Week 2 – (65 plays) Palmer (65/100), McFadden (48/74), Goodson (17/26), Reece (27/42),
Schmitt (9/14), Heyward-Bey (48/74), Streater (40/62), Denarius Moore (40/62), Hagan (19/29),
Myers (49/75), Gordon (22/34), Ausberry (6/9).
Schmitt (2/4), Moore (47/82), Heyward-Bey (27/47), Hagan (25/44), Streater (19/33), Myers
(47/82), Gordon (14/25), Ausberry (10/18).
Schmitt (4/7), Hagan (48/84), Moore (45/79), Streater (26/46), Criner (14/25), Myers (53/93),
Ausberry (11/19).
Week 5 – BYE WEEK
Schmitt (3/4), Heyward-Bey (50/68), Moore (48/66), Streater (33/45), Hagan (22/30), Criner
(9/12), Myers (73/100), Ausberry (15/21)
Schmitt (3/4), Moore (64/82), Heyward-Bey (61/78), Streater (36/46), Hagan (10/13), Criner
(9/12), Myers (78/100), Ausberry (8/10).
Schmitt (1/2), Heyward-Bey (53/84), Moore (51/81), Streater (32/51), Hagan (4/6), Criner (1/2),
Myers (63/100), Gordon (5/8), Ausberry (4/6).
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Week 9 – (81 plays) Palmer (81/100), Goodson (33/41), McFadden (18/22), Jones (5/6), Reece
(59/73), Schmitt (1/1), Moore (70/86), Heyward-Bey (65/80), Streater (45/56), Hagan (14/17),
Criner (6/7), Myers (81/100), Gordon (6/7), Ausberry (2/2).
Week 10 – (75 plays) Palmer (69/92), Matt Leinart (6/8), Jeremy Stewart (14/19), Jones (6/8),
Reece (58/77), Schmitt (13/17), Moore (63/84), Heyward-Bey (62/83), Streater (45/60), Hagan
(23/31), Criner (15/20), Myers (56/75), Ausberry (12/16), Gordon (8/11).
Week 11 – (73 plays) Palmer (73/100), Stewart (10/14), Jones (6/8), Reece (63/86), Schmitt
(20/27), D. Moore (57/78), Heyward-Bey (50/68), Hagan (34/47), Streater (27/37), Criner
(15/21), Myers (68/93), Gordon (3/4), Ausberry (2/3).
Week 12 – (61 plays) Palmer (61/100), Stewart (21/34), Reece (49/80), Schmitt (8/13),
Heyward-Bey (56/92), Moore (56/92), Criner (40/66), Streater (5/8), Myers (59/97) Ausberry
(3/5).
Week 13 – (73 plays) Palmer (73/100), Stewart (21/29), Reece (70/96), Schmitt (13/18),
Heyward-Bey (58/79), Moore (46/63), Streater (37/51), Criner (33/45), Hagan (10/14), Myers
(70/96), Ausberry (2/3).
Week 14 – (51 plays) Palmer (51/100), McFadden (30/59), Reece (24/47), Schmitt (4/8), Moore
(45/88), Streater (40/78), Criner (13/25), Myers (48/94), Ausberry (1/2), Gordon (1/2).
Week 15 – (77 plays) Palmer (74/96), Terrelle Pryor (3/4), McFadden (46/60), Goodson (29/38),
Jamize Olawale (4/5), Reece (30/39), Moore (62/81), Heyward-Bey (58/75), Streater (40/52),
Criner (8/10), Myers (77/100), Ausberry (11/14), Gordon (1/1).
Week 16 – (62 plays) Leinart (54/87), Palmer (8/13), Pryor (3/5), McFadden (48/77), Goodson
(11/18), Olawale (4/6), Reece (30/48), Heyward-Bey (49/79), Moore (48/77), Streater (41/66),
Hagan (9/15), Myers (57/92), Gordon (5/8), Ausberry (3/5).
Week 17 – (64 plays) Pryor (64/100), McFadden (56/88), Olawale (4/6), Goodson (4/6), Reece
(24/38), Heyward-Bey (56/88), Moore (53/83), Streater (46/72), Hagan (7/11), Myers (62/97),
Ausberry (5/8), Gordon (3/5).
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Week 1 – (56 plays) Philip Rivers (56/100), Curtis Brinkley (30/54), Ronnie Brown (26/46),
Le’Ron McClain (25/45), Malcom Floyd (49/88), Robert Meachem (36/64), Eddie Royal
(22/39), Antonio Gates (52/93), Randy McMichael (30/54), Dante Rosario (9/16).
Week 2 – (81 plays) Rivers (81/100), Brinkley (41/51), Brown (25/31), Jackie Battle (15/19),
McClain (43/53), Floyd (63/78), Meachem (59/73), Royal (24/30), Michael Spurlock (4/5),
Richard Goodman (2/3), McMichael (67/83), Rosario (53/65), Ladarius Green (4/5).
Week 3 – (56 plays) Rivers (56/100), Ryan Mathews (43/77), Brinkley (7/12), Battle (6/11),
McClain (11/20), Floyd (53/95), Meachem (43/77), Royal (26/46), Spurlock (2/4), Goodman
(1/2), Gates (46/82), McMichael (27/48), Rosario (15/27).
Week 4 – (63 plays) Rivers (63/100), Mathews (21/33), Battle (27/43), Brown (14/22), McClain
(27/43), Floyd (57/90), Meachem (47/75), Royal (16/25), Goodman (1/2), Gates (54/86),
McMichael (33/52), Rosario (16/25).
Week 5 – (69 plays) Rivers (69/100), Brown (33/48), Mathews (28/41), Battle (8/12), McClain
(16/23), Floyd (65/94), Meachem (54/78), Royal (36/52), Gates (66/96), McMichael (32/46),
Rosario (7/10).
Week 6 – (75 plays) Rivers (75/100), Mathews (41/55), Brown (32/43), Battle (2/3), McClain
(19/25), Floyd (72/96), Meachem (68/91), Royal (27/36), Goodman (4/5), Gates (69/82),
McMichael (33/44), Rosario (8/11)
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Week 7 – BYE WEEK
(26/38), Floyd (67/97), Meachem (45/65), Danario Alexander (1/1), Gates (69/100), McMichael
(39/57), Rosario (29/42).
(20/42), Floyd (41/85), Alexander (34/71), Seyi Ajirotutu (19/40), Gates (42/88), Rosario
(17/35), McMichael (17/35).
(16/24), Alexander (59/89), Floyd (58/88), Royal (24/36), Meachem (8/12), Gates (56/85),
(14/20), Floyd (68/99), Alexander (63/91), Meachem (11/16), Royal (4/6), Gates (66/96), Green
(26/38), McMichael (23/33).
(21/31), Floyd (67/99), Alexander (64/94), Ajirotutu (22/32), Meachem (2/3), Gates (66/97),
McMichael (26/38), Green (4/6).
Week 13 – (67 plays) Rivers (67/100), Brown (34/51), Mathews (33/49), McClain (16/24),
Floyd (66/99), Alexander (63/94), Ajirotutu (31/46), Meachem (2/3), Gates (65/97), McMichael
(23/34), Green (2/3).
(28/35), Floyd (74/94), Alexander (54/68), Spurlock (30/38), Meachem (7/9), Gates (77/97),
Week 15 – (47 plays) Rivers (47/100), Brinkley (21/45), Mathews (17/36), Battle (9/19),
McClain (8/17), Floyd (46/98), Alexander (45/96), Spurlock (31/66), Meachem (1/2), Gates
(40/85), McMichael (12/26), Rosario (5/11).
Week 16 – (61 plays) Rivers (61/100), Battle (33/54), Brown (24/39), Brinkley (4/7), McClain
(23/38), Alexander (51/84), Royal (50/82), Spurlock (20/33), Meachem (11/18), Gates (53/87),
Week 17 – (51 plays) Rivers (51/100), Battle (33/65), Brown (14/27), Brinkley (4/8), McClain
(20/39), Alexander (45/88), Royal (44/86), Spurlock (19/37), Meachem (6/12), Gates (39/76),
NFC EAST
DALLAS COWBOYS
Week 1 – (61 plays) Tony Romo (61/100), DeMarco Murray (47/77), Felix Jones (10/16), Miles
Austin (52/85), Dez Bryant (51/84), Kevin Ogletree (28/46), Jason Witten (48/79), John Phillips
(10/16).
Week 2 – (57 plays) Romo (57/100), Murray (39/68), Jones (18/32), Lawrence Vickers (16/28),
Bryant (51/89), Austin (47/82), Ogletree (37/65), Witten (50/88), Phillips (21/37).
Week 3 – (68 plays) Romo (68/100), Murray (56/82), Jones (11/16), Vickers (19/28), Bryant
(62/91), Austin (49/72), Olgetree (40/59), Dwayne Harris (7/10), Witten (68/100), Phillips
(26/38).
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Week 4 – (70 plays) Romo (59/84), Kyle Orton (11/16), Murray (47/67), Phillip Tanner (11/16),
Jones (9/13), Vickers (11/16), Bryant (68/97), Austin (49/70), Ogletree (49/70), Cole Beasley
(13/19), Andre Holmes (8/11), Harris (6/9), Witten (70/100), Phillips (10/14).
Week 5 – BYE WEEK
Week 6 – (89 plays) Romo (89/100), Jones (49/55), Murray (22/35), Tanner (16/18), Lance
Dunbar (2/2), James Hanna (11/12), Austin (83/93), Bryant (72/81), Ogletree (35/39), Harris
(1/1), Witten (89/100),
Week 7 – (68 plays) Romo (68/100), Tanner (35/51), Jones (33/49), Vickers (19/28), Austin
(62/91), Bryant (48/71), Ogletree (25/37), Harris (7/10), Witten (68/100), Phillips (33/49),
Hanna (6/9).
Week 8 – (86 plays) Romo (86/100), Jones (62/72), Tanner (23/27), Vickers (12/14), Austin
(79/92), Bryant (74/86), Ogletree (50/58), Harris (4/5), Witten (86/100), Phillips (33/38), Hanna
(2/2).
Week 9 – (57 plays) Romo (57/100), Jones (34/60), Dunbar (12/21), Tanner (2/4), Vickers
(18/32), Austin (53/93), Bryant (47/82), Ogletree (21/37), Harris (15/26), Beasley (2/4), Witten
(57/100), Phillips (16/28), Hanna (6/11)
Week 10 – (54 plays) Romo (54/100), Jones (33/61), Dunbar (10/19), Tanner (1/2), Vickers
(27/50), Austin (49/91), Bryant (44/81), Ogletree (24/44), Beasley (4/7), Harris (3/6), Witten
(54/100), Phillips (18/33), Hanna (1/2).
Week 11 – (90 plays) Romo (90/100), Jones (46/51), Dunbar (37/41), Vickers (20/22), Austin
(86/96), Bryant (74/82), Ogletree (30/33), Harris (26/29), Beasley (21/23), Witten (90/100),
Phillips (11/12), Hanna (8/9).
Week 12 – (77 plays) Romo (77/100), Jones (35/45), Dunbar (27/35), Vickers (15/19), Bryant
(74/96), Harris (68/88), Beasley (61/79), Austin (10/13), Holmes (8/10), Witten (77/100),
Week 13 – (65 plays) Romo (65/100), Murray (37/57), Jones (16/25), Dunbar (1/2), Vickers
(35/54), Bryant (54/83), Austin (44/68), Ogletree (21/32), D. Harris (11/17), Beasley (4/6),
Witten (65/100), Phillips (26/40), Hanna (5/8).
(21/29), Austin (67/93), Bryant (57/79), Harris (35/49), Ogletree (13/18), Witten (72/100),
(14/21), Austin (57/85), Bryant (49/73), Ogletree (23/34), Harris (16/24), Beasley (5/7), Witten
(66/99), Phillips (24/36), Hanna (17/25).
Week 16 – (57 plays) Romo (57/100), Murray (50/88), Jones (7/12), Vikcers (8/14)Austin
(55/96), Bryant (49/86), Ogletree (24/42), Harris (18/32), Witten (57/100), Phillips (9/16),
Hanna (8/14).
NEW YORK GIANTS
Week 1 – (55 plays) Eli Manning (55/100), Ahmad Bradshaw (52/95), David Wilson (3/5),
Hakeem Nicks (53/96), Victor Cruz (50/91), Rueben Randle (2/4), Ramses Barden (1/2),
Martellus Bennett (53/96), Bear Pascoe (11/20)
Week 2 – (81 plays) Manning (81/100), Andre Brown (52/64), Bradshaw (14/17), Wilson (6/7),
Harry Hynoski (28/35), Nicks (77/95), Cruz (76/94), Barden (45/56), Domenik Hixon (5/6),
Randle (3/4), Bennett (80/99), Pascoe (17/21).
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Week 3 – (69 plays) Manning (60/87), David Carr (9/13), Brown (54/78), Wilson (4/6), Hynoski
(31/45), Cruz (61/88), Barden (63/91), Randle (27/39), Jerrel Jernigan (4/6), Bennett (59/86),
Pascoe (31/45).
Week 4 – (68 plays) Manning (68/100), Bradshaw (58/85), Brown (9/13), Wilson (1/1), Hynoski
(21/31), Cruz (65/96), Hixon (62/91), Barden (43/63), Randle (4/6), Bennett (63/93), Pascoe
(14/21).
Week 5 – (75 plays) Manning (75/100), Bradshaw (71/95), Wilson (2/3), Hynoski (42/56),
Hixon (67/89), Cruz (64/85), Randle (38/51), Jernigan (3/4), Bennett (52/69), Pascoe (32/43),
Adrien Robinson (1/1).
Week 6 – (65 plays) Manning (65/100), Bradshaw (55/85), Wilson (7/11), Hynoski (32/49),
Cruz (60/92), Nicks (52/80), Hixon (22/34), Barden (3/5), Bennett (57/88), Pascoe (24/37).
Week 7 – (63 plays) Manning (63/100), Bradshaw (48/76), Brown (16/25), Nicks (59/94), Cruz
(57/90), Hixon (32/51), Barden (2/3), Bennett (58/92), Pascoe (14/22).
Week 8 – (61 plays) Manning (60/98), Bradshaw (48/79), Brown (9/15), Wilson (2/3), Hynoski
(25/41), Nicks (58/95), Cruz (53/87), Hixon (22/36), Randle (9/15), Barden (5/8), Bennett
(53/87), Pascoe (10/16).
Week 9 – (51 plays) Manning (51/100), Bradshaw (37/73), Brown (14/27), Hynoski (25/49),
Nicks (48/94), Cruz (45/88), Hixon (18/35), Randle (7/14), Bennett (49/96), Beckum (7/14).
Week 10 – (73 plays) Manning (73/100), Brown (44/60), Bradshaw (23/32), Wilson (2/3),
Hynoski (12/16), Cruz (71/97), Nicks (71/97), Barden (39/53), Randle (19/26), Hixon (4/5),
Bennett (65/89), Travis Beckum (10/14), Pascoe (2/3).
Week 12 – (65 plays) Manning (65/100), Bradshaw (29/45), Brown (24/37), Wilson (12/18),
Hynoski (36/55), Cruz (58/89), Nicks (56/86), Randle (20/31), Jernigan (3/5), Barden (1/2),
Bennett (57/88), Pascoe (21/32), Beckum (5/8).
Week 13 – (66 plays) Manning (66/100), Bradshaw (54/82), Wilson (7/11), Gregg Lumpkin
(3/5), Hynoski (27/41), Cruz (58/88), Nicks (57/86), Randle (41/62), Jernigan (6/9), Barden
(2/3), Bennett (61/92), Pascoe (9/14).
Week 14 – (69 plays) Manning (69/100), Bradshaw (38/55), Wilson (21/30), Lumpkin (5/7),
Hynoski (36/52), Nicks (56/81), Cruz (53/77), Hixon (43/62), Barden (4/6), Jernigan (2/4),
Randle (1/1), Bennett (68/99), Pascoe (17/25).
Week 15 – (48 plays) Manning (48/100), Wilson (27/56), Lumpkin (19/40), Ryan Torain (1/2),
Hynoski (14/29), Nicks (46/96), Cruz (43/90), Hixon (33/69), Randle (2/4), Jernigan (1/2),
Bennett (45/94), Pascoe (8/17), Beckum (1/2).
Week 16 – (48 plays) Manning (48/100), Bradshaw (35/73), Wilson (4/8), Lumpkin (3/6),
Hynoski (16/33), Cruz (40/83), Nicks (35/73), Hixon (34/71), Randle (16/33), Jernigan (3/6),
Bennett (47/98), Pascoe (7/15).
Week 17 – (63 plays) Manning (57/90), Carr (6/10), Bradshaw (36/57), Wilson (27/43),
Lumpkin (1/2), Hynoski (38/60), Randle (55/87), Cruz (48/76), Jernigan (4/6), Nicks (1/2),
Bennett (61/97), Pascoe (25/40).
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Week 1 – (94 plays) Michael Vick (94/100), LeSean McCoy (80/85), Bryce Brown (8/9),
DeSean Jackson (90/96), Jeremy Maclin (78/83), Jason Avant (62/66), Brent Celek (88/94), Clay
Harbor (34/36).
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Week 2 – (79 plays) Vick (79/100), McCoy (68/86), Brown (8/10), Stanley Havili (17/22),
Jackson (71/90), Maclin (43/54), Avant (55/70), Damaris Johnson (21/27), Celek (75/95),
Harbor (36/46).
Week 3 – (64 plays) Vick (64/100), McCoy (51/80), Brown (10/16), Havili (12/19), Jackson
(63/98), Johnson (56/88), Avant (56/88), Mardy Gilyard (6/9), Celek (54/84), Harbor (11/17).
Week 4 – (69 plays) Vick (69/100), McCoy (52/75), Brown (14/20), Havili (28/41), Maclin
(64/93), Jackson (64/93), Avant (33/48), Johnson (5/7), Celek (63/91), Harbor (19/28)
Week 5 – (57 plays) Vick (57/100), McCoy (46/81), Brown (4/7), Dion Lewis (3/5), Havili
(21/37), Maclin (53/93), Jackson (49/86), Avant (29/51), Johnson (4/7), Celek (54/95), Harbor
(22/39).
(78/95), Maclin (79/96), Avant (51/62), Riley Cooper (10/12), Celek (70/85), Harbor (20/24)
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
Week 8 – (63 plays) Vick (63/100), McCoy (54/86), Brown (8/13), Havili (14/22), Maclin
(62/98), Jackson (49/78), Avant (46/73), Cooper (18/29), Celek (54/86), Harbor (9/14).
(77/97), Maclin (77/97), Avant (44/56), Cooper (6/8), Celek (73/92), Harbor (25/32)
Week 10 – (78 plays) Nick Foles (58/74), Vick (20/26), McCoy (63/81), Brown (12/15), Havili
(15/19), Jackson (75/96), Maclin (73/94), Cooper (44/56), Avant (12/15), Johnson (11/14), Celek
(68/87), Harbor (17/22)
Week 11 – (75 plays) Foles (75/100), McCoy (54/72), Brown (20/27), Havili (9/12), Maclin
(72/96), Jackson (71/95), Cooper (53/71), Johnson (14/19), Celek (56/75), Harbor (26/35).
Week 12 – (50 plays) Foles (50/100), Brown (41/82), Lewis (8/16), Havili (12/24), Maclin
(49/98), Johnson (40/80), Cooper (36/72), Celek (43/86), Harbor (9/18)
Week 13 – (63 plays) Foles (63/100), Brown (56/89), Lewis (5/8), Havili (5/8), Cooper (62/98),
Maclin (61/97), Avant (51/81), Johnson (5/8), Celek (55/87), Harbor (15/24).
Week 14 – (76 plays) Foles (76/100), Brown (50/66), Lewis (26/34), Havili (11/14), Maclin
(75/99), Avant (71/93), Cooper (71/93), Johnson (19/25), McNutt (5/7), Harbor (51/67), Celek
(1/1).
Week 15 – (56 plays) Foles (56/100), Brown (49/88), S. Lewis (5/9), Havili (11/20), Maclin
(52/93), Cooper (55/98), Avant (38/68), Johnson (9/16), McNutt (1/2), Harbor (46/82), Emil
Igwenagu (13/23).
Week 16 – (76 plays) Foles (76/100), McCoy (64/84), Brown (10/13), Lewis (3/4), Maclin
(75/99), Cooper (73/96), Avant (59/78), Johnson (16/21), McNutt (3/4), Celek (60/79),
Igwenagu (12/16), Moore (5/7).
Week 17 – (66 plays) Vick (60/91), Trent Edwards (6/9), McCoy (37/56), Brown (17/26), Lewis
(10/15), Havili (14/21), Cooper (59/89), Avant (49/74), Johnson (18/27), McNutt (5/8), Celek
(48/73), Igwenagu (10/15).
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Week 1 – (75 plays) Robert Griffin III (75/100), Alfred Morris (53/71), Roy Helu (19/25), Evan
Royster (3/4), Aldrick Robinson (65/87), Josh Morgan (56/75), Santana Moss (38/51), Leonard
Hankerson 9/12, Pierre Garcon (8/11), Brandon Banks (2/3), Fred Davis (75/100), Niles Paul
(19/25), Logan Paulsen (9/12).
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Week 2 – (60 plays) Griffin (60/100), Morris (31/52), Royster (15/25), Helu (6/10), Darrel
Young (11/18), Morgan (48/80), Moss (36/60), Hankerson (31/52), Dezmon Briscoe (11/18),
Banks (1/2), Davis (60/100), Paul (20/33), Paulsen (1/2).
Week 3 – (76 plays) Griffin (76/100), Morris (37/49), Helu (19/25), Royster (19/25), Young
(11/14), Hankerson (59/78), Morgan (57/75), Moss (40/53), Banks (18/24), Briscoe (15/20),
Robinson (15/20), Davis (73/96), Paul (12/16), Paulsen (5/7).
Week 4 – (73 plays) Griffin (73/100), Morris (49/67), Royster (15/21), Young (25/34),
Hankerson (65/89), Garcon (49/67), Moss (35/48), Morgan (30/41), Banks (2/3), Davis (72/99),
Paulsen (12/16), Paul (11/15).
Week 5 – (49 plays) Griffin (36/73), Kirk Cousins (13/27), Morris (41/84), Royster (6/12), Ryan
Grant (1/2), Young (15/31), Morgan (39/80), Garcon (39/80), Moss (19/39), Robinson (10/20),
Hankerson (9/18), Davis (49/100), Paulsen (12/24), Paul (5/10).
Week 6 – (58 plays) Griffin (58/100), Morris (49/84), Royster (8/14), Young (11/19), Hankerson
(47/81), Morgan (35/60), Moss (18/31), Banks (18/31), ARobinson (9/16), Briscoe (4/7), Davis
(58/100), Paul (17/29), Paulsen (16/28)
Hankerson (68/97), Morgan (38/54), Moss (17/24), Robinson (3/.4), Briscoe (1/1), Paulsen
(60/86), Davis (16/23).
Hankerson (46/78), Morgan (42/71), Moss (25/42), Robinson (14/24), Briscoe (10/17), Paulsen
(56/95), Chris Cooley (19/32), Paul (9/15).
Week 9 – (81 plays) Griffin (81/100), Morris (40/49), Royster (38/47), Young (22/27), Morgan
(70/86), Hankerson (44/54), Moss (40/49), Robinson (34/42), Briscoe (6/7), Banks (4/5), Paulsen
(78/96), Paul (19/23), Cooley (10/12).
(35/66), Hankerson (34/64), Moss (22/42), Garcon (21/40), Robinson (9/17), Banks (4/8),
Paulsen (51/96), Paul (14/26), Cooley (9/17).
Week 12 – (63 plays) Griffin (63/100), Morris (50/79), Royster (9/140, Young (22/35), Morgan
(41/65), Hankerson (35/56), Moss (32/51), Garcon (29/46), Banks (9/14), Robinson (9/14),
Paulsen (63/100), Paul (13/21), Cooley (3/5).
Hankerson (35/65), Morgan (33/61), Garcon (31/57), Moss (15/28), Robinson (4/7), Paulson
(54/100), Paul (13/24), Cooley (5/9).
Week 14 – (72 plays) Griffin (65/90), Cousins (7/10), Morris (49/68), Royster (22/31), Young
(24/33), Garcon (61/85), Morgan (47/65), Moss (37/51), Hankerson (25/35), Robinson (8/11),
Paulson (70/97), Cooley (12/17), Paul (5/7).
Week 15 – (75 plays) Cousins (75/100), Morris (54/72), Royster (21/28), Young (25/33),
Garcon (56/75), Morgan (43/57), Hankerson (41/55), Moss (35/47), Robinson (3/4), Paulsen
(74/99), Cooley (18/24), Paul (5/7).
(47/89), Garcon (47/89), Moss (20/38), Hankerson (10/19), Robinson (3/6), Paulsen (52/98),
Paul (11/21), Cooley (7/13).
Week 17 – (62 plays) Griffin (62/100), Morris (45/73), Royster (17/27), Young (23/37), Garcon
(54/87), Morgan (48/77), Moss (25/40), Hankerson (15/24), Robinson (3/5), Paulsen (62/100),
Paul (13/21), Cooley (5/8).
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NFC NORTH
CHICAGO BEARS
Week 1 – (76 plays) Jay Cutler (76/100), Matt Forte (55/72), Michael Bush (25/33), Brandon
Marshall (70/92), Alshon Jeffery (41/54), Devin Hester (32/42), Earl Bennett (20/26), Kellen
Davis (74/97), Matt Spaeth (31/41), Kyle Adams (9/12)
Week 2 – (60 plays) Cutler (60/100), Bush (31/52), Forte (22/37), Armando Allen (7/12),
Marshall (60/100), Bennett (40/67), Jeffery (37/62), Hester (20/33), Davis (60/100), Spaeth
(11/18).
Week 3 – (69 plays) Cutler (69/100), Bush (39/57), Kahlil Bell (27/39), Allen (3/4), Evan
Rodriguez (5/7), Marshall (63/91), Jeffery (51/74), Bennett (31/45), Hester (11/16), Davis
(66/96), Spaeth (31/45), Adams (10/14).
Week 4 – (55 plays) Cutler (55/100), Forte (30/55), Bush (22/40), Bell (3/5), Marshall (52/95),
Jeffery (41/75), Dane Sanzenbacher (17/31), Hester (8/15), Eric Weems (1/2), Davis (54/98),
Spaeth (33/60), Adams (10/18).
Week 5 – (75 plays) Cutler (70/93), Jason Campbell (5/7), Forte (53/71), Bush (17/23), Allen
(5/7), Marshall (65/87), Jeffery (44/59), Sanzenbacher (32/43), Hester (25/33), Weems (3/4),
Davis (73/97), Spaeth (44/59), Adams (14/19).
Week 6 – BYE WEEK
Week 7 – (72 plays) Cutler (67/93), Campbell (5/7), Forte (51/71), Bush (24/33), Marshall
(70/97), Hester (59/82), Bennett (38/53), Weems (1/1), Charles Tillman (1/1), Davis (71/99),
Spaeth (31/43), Adams (13/18)
Week 8 – (55 plays) Cutler (55/100), Forte (50/91), Bush (5/9), Marshall (53/96), Hester
(40/73), Bennett (37/67), Weems (3/5), Davis (55/100), Spaeth (24/44), Adams (8/15).
Week 9 – (69 plays) Cutler (56/81), Campbell (13/19), Forte (35/51), Bush (21/30), Allen
(13/19), Rodriguez (16/23), Marshall (56/81), Bennett (41/59), Hester (33/48), Weems (15/22),
Davis (69/100), Spaeth (34/49), Adams (7/10).
Week 10 – (59 plays) Campbell (33/56), Cutler (26/44), Forte (51/86), Bush (8/14), Rodriguez
(10/17), Marshall (56/95), Bennett (47/80), Hester (27/46), Davis (54/92), Spaeth (32/54),
Adams (8/14).
Week 11 – (59 plays) Campbell (59/100), Forte (47/80), Bush (10/17), Allen (2/3), Rodriguez
(16/27), Marshall (54/92), Bennett (42/71), Jeffery (26/44), Hester (19/32), Weems (5/8), Davis
(54/92), Spaeth (9/15), Adams (5/8).
Week 12 – (73 plays) Cutler (73/100), Forte (41/56), Bush (31/42), Allen (3/4), Rodriguez
(24/33), Marshall (68/93), Bennett (52/71), Weems (27/37), Hester (8/11), Davis (67/92), Spaeth
(36/49), Adams (2/3).
Week 13 – (61 plays) Cutler (61/100), Forte (48/79), Bush (13/21), Rodriguez (32/52), Marshall
(55/90), Weems (36/59), Bennett (18/30), Sanzenbacher (16/26), Davis (55/90), Spaeth (26/43),
Adams (4/7).
Week 14 – (78 plays) Cutler (67/86), Forte (72/92), Allen (4/5), Bush (2/3), Rodriguez (9/12),
Marshall (74/95), Jeffery (57/73), Hester (54/69), Weems (21/27), Davis (49/63), Adams
(20/37), Spaeth (19/24).
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Week 15 – (54 plays) Cutler (54/100), Forte (51/94), Allen (3/6), Rodriguez (23/43), Marshall
(51/94), Jeffery (43/80), Hester (21/39), Weems (6/11), Davis (39/72), Spaeth (17/31), Adams
(14/24).
Week 16 – (61 plays) Cutler (61/100), Forte (30/49), Bell (22/36), Allen (9/15), Rodriguez
(25/41), Marshall (55/90), Jeffery (38/62), Bennett (27/44), Weems (4/7), Tillman (2/3), Hester
(1/2), Davis (52/85), Spaeth (27/44), Adams (13/21).
Week 17 – (69 plays) Cutler (69/100), Forte (56/81), Bell (12/17), Rodriguez (20/29), Marshall
(66/96), Jeffery (53/77), Bennett (24/35), Weems (5/7), Tillman (3/4), Hester (3/4), Davis
(63/91), Adams (22/32), Spaeth (14/20).
DETROIT LIONS
Week 1 – (67 plays) Matthew Stafford (67/100), Kevin Smith (49/73), Stefan Logan (5/7),
Keiland Williams (3/4), Calvin Johnson (67/100), Nate Burleson (53/79), Titus Young (38/57),
Brandon Pettigrew (67/100), Tony Scheffler (43/64), Will Heller (8/12).
Week 2 – (64 plays) Stafford (64/100), Smith (35/55), Joique Bell (20/31), Logan (1/2), Johnson
(64/100), Burleson (57/89), Young (40/62), Pettigrew (60/94), Scheffler (35/55), Heller (7/11).
Week 3 – (96 plays) Stafford (77/80), Shaun Hill (19/20), Mikel Leshoure (60/62), Bell (22/23),
Smith (5/5), Logan (2/2), Johnson (96/100), Young (89/93), Burleson (86/90), Ryan Broyles
(17/18), Kassim Osgood (1/1) Pettigrew (93/97), Heller (7/7).
Week 4 – (78 plays) Stafford (78/100), Leshoure (34/44), Bell (27/35), Williams (14/18),
Johnson (70/90), Burleson (77/99), Young (67/86), Broyles (3/4), Pettigrew (70/90), Scheffler
(17/22), Heller (6/8).
Week 5 – BYE WEEK.
Week 6 – (78 plays) Stafford (78/100), Leshoure (47/60), Bell (17/22), Williams (11/14),
Johnson (77/99), Burleson (62/79), Young (54/69), Broyles (9/12), Pettigrew (38/49), Heller
(27/35), Scheffler (26/33)
Week 7 – (68 plays) Stafford (68/100), Leshoure (38/56), Bell (29/43), Johnson (68/100), Young
(57/84), Broyles (35/51), Burleson (21/31), Pettigrew (52/76), Scheffler (20/29), Heller (9/13)
Week 8 – (73 plays) Stafford (73/100), Leshoure (30/41), Bell (28/38), Smith (12/16), Johnson
(68/93), Young (67/92), Broyles (34/47), Brian Robiske (3/4), Osgood (1/1), Pettigrew (67/92),
Scheffler (38/52), Heller (7/10)
Week 9 – (71 plays) Stafford (71/100), Leshoure (32/45), Bell (27/38), Smith (11/15), Young
(60/85), Johnson (59/83), Broyles (29/41), Mike Thomas (14/20), Osgood (2/3), Pettigrew
(43/61), Heller (35/49), Scheffler (10/14).
Week 10 – (63 plays) Stafford (63/100), Leshoure (36/57), Bell (26/41), Smith (1/2), Johnson
(61/97), Young (63/100), Broyles (32/51), Thomas (6/10), Pettigrew (37/59), Scheffler (17/27),
Heller (15/24).
Week 11 – (72 plays) Stafford (72/100), Leshoure (39/54), Smith (19/26), Bell (10/14), C.
Johnson (71/99), Young (68/94), Broyles (31/43), Thomas (4/6), Pettigrew (62/86), Scheffler
(38/53), Heller (10/14).
Week 12 – (89 plays) Stafford (89/100), Leshoure (34/38), Smith (26/29), Bell (18/20), Johnson
(87/98), Broyles (80/90), Thomas (58/65), Robiske (3/3), Pettigrew (89/100), Scheffler (35/39),
Heller (15/17).
Week 13 – (77 plays) Stafford (77/100), Leshoure (43/56), Bell (21/27), Smith (13/17), Logan
(4/5), Johnson (76/99), Thomas (70/91), Broyles (8/10), Osgood (1/1), Pettigrew (60/78),
Scheffler (41/53), Heller (32/42)
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Week 14 – (84 plays) Stafford (84/100), Bell (43/51), Leshoure (31/37), Smith (7/8), Johnson
(81/96), Durham (78/93), Thomas (17/20), Robiske (5/6), Heller (64/76), Scheffler (61/73),
Pettigrew (16/19).
Week 15 – (77 plays) Stafford (77/100), Bell (33/43), Leshoure (31/40), Smith (9/12), Logan
(5/6), Shaun Chapas (2/3), Johnson (70/91), Durham (49/64), Robiskie (34/44), Thomas (18/23),
Heller (62/81), Scheffler (52/68).
Week 16 – (78 plays) Stafford (78/100), Bell (42/54), Leshoure (28/36), Chapas (9/12), Logan
(5/6), Smith (3/4), Johnson (75/96), Durham (49/63), Robiske (30/38), Thomas (22/28),
Scheffler (49/63).
Week 17 – (64 plays) Stafford (64/100), Leshoure (46/72), Bell (18/28), Chapas (3/5), Logan
(1/2), Johnson (61/95), Durham (42/66), Robiske (25/39), Thomas (14/22), Heller (41/64),
Scheffler (40/62), Pettigrew (15/23).
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Week 1 – (68 plays) Aaron Rodgers (68/100), Cedric Benson (25/37), Jon Kuhn (13/19), Jordy
Nelson (65/96), Greg Jennings (63/93), James Jones (58/85), Randall Cobb (35/51), Donald
Driver (3/4), Jermichael Finley (58/85), Tom Crabtree (14/21).
Week 2 – (68 plays) Rodgers (68/100), Benson (48/71), Kuhn (31/46), Nelson (66/97), Jones
(54/79), Cobb (20/29), Driver (12/18), Finley (55/81), Crabtree (27/40), D.J. Williams (20/29).
Week 3 – (75 plays) Rodgers (75/100), Benson (51/68), Kuhn (45/60), Jennings (54/72), Nelson
(54/72), Jones (49/65), Cobb (9/12), Driver (4/5), Finley (55/73), Williams (36/48), Ryan Taylor
(18/24).
Week 4 – (70 plays) Rodgers (69/99), Graham Harrell (1/1), Benson (59/84), Kuhn (16/23),
Nelson (63/90), Jennings (13/19), Jones (62/89), Cobb (33/47), Driver (18/26), Finley (53/76),
Crabtree (24/34), Taylor (9/13).
Week 5 – (67 plays) Rodgers (67/100), Alex Green (27/40), Benson (16/24), Kuhn (21/31),
Jones (64/96), Nelson (62/93), Cobb (44/66), Driver (8/12), Finley (33/49), Crabtree (30/45),
Williams (22/33), Taylor (8/12).
Week 6 – (73 plays) Rodgers (66/90), Harrell (7/10), Green (51/70), James Starks (8/11), Kuhn
(27/37), Jones (62/85), Nelson (60/82), Cobb (44/60), Driver (16/22), Jarrett Boykin (10/14),
Crabtree (46/63), Finley (24/33), Taylor (13/18)
Week 7 – (68 plays) Rodgers (68/100), Green (46/68), Kuhn (23/34), Jones (65/96), Nelson
(57/84), Cobb (50/74), Driver (11/16), Boykin (5/7), Finley (41/60), Crabtree (29/43), Williams
(7/10), Taylor (6/9).
Week 8 – (67 plays) Rodgers (67/100), Green (52/76), Starks (7/10), Jones (66/97), Cobb
(59/87), Driver (23/34), Boykin (22/32), Crabtree (37/54), Finley (36/53), Williams (25/37),
Taylor (7/10).
Week 9 – (71 plays) Rodgers (71/100), Green (41/58), Starks (23/32), Jones (71/100), Cobb
(57/80), Driver (24/34), Boykin (23/32), Nelson (13/18), Finley (35/49), Crabtree (32/45),
Taylor (20/28), Williams (16/23).
Week 11 – (64 plays) Rodgers (64/100), Starks (44/69), Green (6/9), Kuhn (16/25), Jones
(63/98), Nelson (53/83), Cobb (47/73), Driver (17/27), Finley (35/55), Crabtree (23/36),
Williams (14/22), Taylor (2/3).
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Week 12 – (61 plays) Rodgers (52/85), Harrell (9/15), Green (25/41), Starks (16/26), Jones
(57/93), Nelson (54/89), Cobb (38/62), Driver (7/11), Finley (35/57), Crabtree (23/38), Williams
(15/25), Taylor (3/5).
Week 13 – (81 plays) Rodgers (81/100), Green (28/35), Starks (27/33), Kuhn (41/51), Jones
(80/99), Cobb (59/73), Jennings (53/65), Nelson (11/14), Boykin (4/5), Finley (49/60), Crabtree
(33/41), Williams (14/17), Taylor (6/7).
Week 14 – (53 plays) Rodgers (53/100), Green (32/60), Harris (7/13), Grant (2/4), Jones
(50/94), Jennings (46/87), Cobb (41/77), Boykins (5/9), Driver (3/6), Finley (26/49), Williams
(13/25), Crabtree (13/25), Taylor (2/4).
Week 15 – (74 plays) Rodgers (74/100), Green (34/46), Grant (14/19), Harris (7/9), Kuhn
(21/42), Jones (68/92), Jennings (64/86), Cobb (57/77), Boykin (4/5), Finley (58/78), Taylor
(14/19), Crabtree (12/16).
Week 16 – (78 plays) Rodgers (63/81), Harrell (15/19), Grant (41/53), Harris (19/24), Kuhn
(32/41), Jones (68/87), Jennings (64/82), Cobb (41/53), Boykin (9/12), Driver (4/5), Jeremy Ross
(1/1), Finley (47/60), Williams (44/56), Taylor (12/15).
Week 17 – (64 plays) Rodgers (64/100), Harris (35/55), Grant (5/8), Kuhn (28/44), Jones
(63/98), Jenning (62/97), Nelson (37/58), Boykin (8/12), Ross (1/2), Finley (49/77), Crabtree
(20/31), Williams (11/17), Taylor (1/2).
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Week 1 – (59 plays) Christian Ponder (59/100), Adrian Peterson (32/54), Toby Gerhart (20/34),
Jerome Felton (32/54), Percy Harvin (47/80), Michael Jenkins (47/80), Devin Aromashodu
(25/42), Stephen Burton (11/19), Kyle Rudolph (59/100), John Carlson (18/31)
Week 2 – (70 plays) Ponder (70/100), Peterson (43/61), Gerhart (25/36), Felton (25/36), Harvin
(54/77), Jenkins (64/91), Burton (12/17), Rudolph (70/100), Carlson (18/26), Rhett Ellison
(8/11).
Week 3 – (79 plays) Ponder (79/100), Peterson (49/62), Gerhart (23/29), Felton (38/48), Matt
Asiata (4/5), Harvin (53/67), Jenkins (64/81), Aromashodu (39/49), Burton (10/13), Rudolph
(67/85), Carlson (29/37), Ellison (19/24).
Week 4 – (58 plays) Ponder (58/100), Peterson (46/79), Gerhart (10/17), Felton (22/38), Asiata
(2/3), Jerome Simpson (48/83), Harvin (44/76), Jenkins (32/55), Aromashodu (5/9), Rudolph
(58/100), Carlson (13/22), Ellison (10/17).
Week 5 – (69 plays) Ponder (66/96), Joe Webb (3/4), Peterson (44/64), Gerhart (22/32), Asiata
(3/4), Felton (17/25), Harvin (45/65), Aromashodu (40/58), Jenkins (39/57), Simpson (24/35),
Burton (15/22), Rudolph (53/77), Ellison (22/32), Carlson (21/30).
Week 6 – (84 plays) Ponder (84/100), Peterson (70/83), Gerhart (14/17), Felton (22/26), Jenkins
(73/87), Harvin (64/76), Aromashodu (50/60), Burton (12/14), Rudolph (84/100), Carlson
(17/20), Ellison (14/17)
Week 7 – (52 plays) Ponder (52/100), Peterson (41/79), Gerhart (11/21), Felton (24/46),
Simpson (38/73), Harvin (31/60), Jenkins (21/40), Burton (15/29), Aromashodu (2/4), Rudolph
(49/94), Ellison (15/29), Carlson (13/25).
Simpson (60/100), Harvin (48/80), Jenkins (39/65), Burton (13/22), Rudolph (57/95), Ellison
(12/20)
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Week 9 – (54 plays) Ponder (54/100), Peterson (41/76), Gerhart (13/24), Asiata (3/6), Felton
(17/31), Jenkins (36/67), Simpson (35/65), Harvin (34/63), Aromashodu (12/22), Rudolph
(54/100), Ellison (13/24), Allen Reisner (8/15).
(46/66), Simpson (40/57), Jarius Wright (30/43), Burton (20/29), Aromashodu (13/19), Rudolph
(68/97), Ellison (24/34), Carlson (12/17).
(41/62), Wright (41/62), Simpson (29/44), Aromashodu (26/39), Burton (14/21), Rudolph
(48/73), Carlson (27/41), Ellison (24/36).
Jenkins (41/75), Simpson (39/71), Wright (27/49), Burton (12/22), Aromashodu (11/20),
Rudolph (47/85), Ellison (8/15), Carlson (8/15).
(26/46), Jenkins (30/53), Wright (23/40), Aromashodu (23/40), Burton (16/28), Simpson (16/28),
Rudolph (50/88), Carlson (18/32), Ellison (23/40),
(27/46), Simpson (34/58), Jenkins (33/56), Wright (23/39), Burton (17/29), Aromashodu (10/17),
Rudolph (55/93), Carlson (19/32), Ellison (16/27).
(33/45), Jenkins (52/70), Simpson (51/69), Aromashodu (24/32), Wright (23/31), Rudolph
(70/95), Carlson (25/34), Ellison (18/24).
Jenkins (48/70), Simpson (39/57), Wright (39/57), Aromashodu (26/38), Rudolph (62/90),
Ellison (18/26), Carlson (11/16).
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA FALCONS
Week 1 – (55 plays) Matt Ryan (55/100), Michael Turner (26/47), Jacquizz Rodgers (25/45),
Lousaka Polite (16/29), Roddy White (53/96), Julio Jones (50/91), Harry Douglas (28/51), Tony
Gonzalez (49/89), Michael Palmer (16/29).
Week 2 – (67 plays) Ryan (67/100), Turner (43/64), Rodgers (24/36), Jason Snelling (12/18),
Polite (17/25), White (59/88), Jones (48/72), Douglas (39/58), Gonzalez (64/96), Palmer (21/31).
Week 3 – (72 plays) Ryan (69/96), Luke McCown (3/4), Rodgers (34/47), Turner (32/44),
Snelling (21/29), Polite (13/18), White (67/93), Douglas (48/67), Jones (38/53), Drew Davis
(13/18), Kevin Cone (3/4), Gonzalez (66/92), Palmer (6/8).
Week 4 – (70 plays) Ryan (70/100), Turner (37/53), Rodgers (30/43), Snelling (20/29), White
(67/96), Jones (60/86), Douglas (42/60), D. Davis (1/1), Gonzalez (64/91), Tommy Gallarda
(11/16)
Week 5 – (82 plays) Ryan (81/98), McCown (1/1), Turner (46/55), Rodgers (33/40), Snelling
(23/28), White (77/93), Jones (67/81), Douglas (39/47), Davis (4/5), Cone (1/1), Gonzalez
(67/81), Gallarda (20/24).
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Week 6 – (55 plays) Ryan (55/100), Turner (28/51), Rodgers (21/38), Snelling (7/13), Polite
(8/15), White (53/96), Jones (50/91), Douglas (37/67), Davis (1/2), Gonzalez (54/98), Gallarda
(8/15)
Week 7 – BYE WEEK
(23/31), White (69/92), Jones (60/80), Davis (46/61), Cone (7/9), Gonzalez (67/89), Gallarda
(21/28)
(20/30), White (66/99), Jones (61/91), Douglas (34/51), Davis (1/1), Gonzalez (62/93), Palmer
(11/16), Gallarda (6/9).
Week 10 – (73 plays) Ryan (73/100), Turner (33/45), Rodgers (30/41), Snelling (11/15), Antone
Smith (4/5), Mike Cox (17/23), White (67/92), Jones (45/62), Douglas (41/56), Davis (14/19),
Gonzalez (70/96), Palmer (22/30), Gallarda (2/3).
Week 11 – (73 plays) Ryan (73/100), Rodgers (34/47), Turner (33/45), Snelling (18/25), Cox
(10/26), Chase Coffman (1/1)
(14/23), White (60/100), Jones (51/85), Douglas (40/67), Gonzalez (54/90), Palmer (13/22),
Coffman (1/2).
(11/19), Coffman (1/2).
Week 14 – (65 plays) Ryan (65/100), Rodgers (30/46), Turner (20/31), Snelling (15/23), Smith
(1/2), Cox (9/14), White (61/94), Jones (61/94), Douglas (50/77), Davis (5/8), Cone (1/2),
Gonzalez (62/95), Palmer (5/8)
Week 15 – (68 plays) Ryan (61/90), McCown (7/10), Rodgers (31/46), Snelling (21/31), Turner
(21/31), Smith (1/1), Cox (22/32), Jones (56/82), White (50/74), Douglas (32/47), Davis (19/28),
Cone (3/4), Gonzalez (53/76), Palmer (17/25).
Week 16 – (56 plays) Ryan (56/100), Turner (29/52), Rodgers (21/38), Snelling (6/11), Cox
(23/41), White (49/88), Jones (46/82), Douglas (30/54), Davis (6/11), Cone (1/2), Gonzalez
(54/96), Palmer (11/20).
Week 17 – (63 plays) Ryan (63/100), Rodgers (35/56), Snelling (20/32), Turner (13/31), Cox
(6/10), Coffman (1/2).
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Week 1 – (50 plays) Cam Newton (50/100), DeAngelo Williams (21/42), Mike Tolbert (32/64),
Steve Smith (45/90), Brandon LaFell (50/100), Louis Murphy (37/74), Kealoha Pilares (3/6)
Greg Olsen (48/96), Ben Hartsock (8/16).
Week 2 – (63 plays) Newton (63/100), Williams (25/40), Jonathan Stewart (23/37), Tolbert
(18/29), S. Smith (58/92), LaFell (60/95), Murphy (42/67), Pilares (5/8), Olsen (63/100), Gary
Barnidge (17/27)
Week 3 – (58 plays) Newton (54/93), Derek Anderson (4/7), Williams (30/52), Tolbert (35/60),
S. Smith (55/95), LaFell (56/97), Murphy (40/69), Pilares (2/3), Armanti Edwards (2/3), Olsen
(54/93), Barnidge (9/16), Hartsock (5/9).
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Week 4 – (64 plays) Newton (64/100), Tolbert (34/53), Williams (25/39), Stewart (21/33), S.
Smith (61/95), LaFell (61/95), Murphy (34/53), Edwards (2/3), Pilares (1/2), Olsen (64/100),
Hartsock (12/19), Barnidge (5/8).
Week 5 – (55 plays) Newton (55/100), Stewart (27/49), Williams (20/36), Tolbert (17/31),
Richie Brockel (1/2), S. Smith (51/93), LaFell (51/93), Murphy (35/64), Edwards (2/4), Pilares
(1/2), Olsen (55/100), Hartsock (9/16), Barnidge (5/9)
Week 6 – BYE WEEK
Week 7 – (62 plays) Newton (62/100), Stewart (55/89), Williams (5/8), Tolbert (15/24), S.
Smith (61/98), LaFell (59/95), Murphy (41/66), Edwards (2/3), Olsen (62/100), Hartsock (7/11),
Barnidge (2/3).
Week 8 – (82 plays) Newton (82/100), Stewart (53/65), Williams (14/17), Tolbert (33/40), S.
Smith (81/99), LaFell (69/84), Murphy (45/55), Pilares (4/5), Edwards (1/1), Olsen (82/100),
Brockel (5/9), S. Smith (53/98), Murphy (46/85), Pilares (17/31), Edwards (8/15), Olsen
(54/100), Hartsock (19/35), Barnidge (7/13).
LaFell (70/100), S. Smith (54/77), Edwards (16/23), David Gettis (12/17), Murphy (34/49),
Olsen (62/89), Barnidge (16/23), Hartsock (7/10)
LaFell (62/93), S. Smith (61/91), Murphy (48/72), Edwards (4/6), Olsen (67/100), Hartsock
(9/13), Barnidge (7/10).
Week 12 – (67 plays) Newton (67/100), Williams (33/49), Stewart (26/39), Tolbert (26/39),
Brockel (2/3), S. Smith (62/93) LaFell (58/87), Murphy (30/45), Edwards (8/12), Joe Adams
(2/3), Olsen (63/94), Hartsock (19/23), Barnidge (5/7).
Week 13 – (51 plays) Newton (51/100), Williams (31/61), Tolbert (23/45), Brockel (4/8), S.
Smith (50/98), Murphy (32/63), LaFell (25/49), Edwards (24/47), Adams (3/6), Olsen (51/100),
Week 14 – (70 plays) Newton (70/100), Williams (42/60), Armond Smith (2/3)Tolbert (36/51),
Brockel (9/13), Murphy (67/96), S. Smith (59/84), Edwards (33/47), Adams (3/4), Gettis (3/4),
Olsen (68/97), Hartsock (14/20), Barnidge (13/19).
Week 15 – (77 plays) Newton (77/100), Williams (41/53), A. Smith (3/4), Tolbert (45/58),
Murphy (57/74), S. Smith (56/73), LaFell (23/30), Edwards (14/18), Adams (13/17), Olsen
Week 16 – (63 plays) Newton (63/100), Williams (29/46), Smith (3/5), Tolbert (37/59), LaFell
(53/84), S. Smith (52/83), Murphy (42/67), Edwards (2/3), Adams (1/2), Olsen (60/95), Hartsock
(17/27), Barnidge (14/22).
Week 17 – (76 plays) Newton (71/93), Anderson (5/7), Williams (46/61), Tolbert (41/54),
Brockel (22/29), LaFell (59/78), S. Smith (51/67), Murphy (37/49), Edwards (6/8), Olsen
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Week 1 – (72 plays) Drew Brees (72/100), Darren Sproles (48/67), Pierre Thomas (15/21), Mark
Ingram (9/12), Jed Collins (18/25), Marques Colston (57/79), Lance Moore (53/74), Josh
Morgan (40/56), Devery Henderson (32/44), Jimmy Graham (57/79), Daniel Graham (16/22),
David Thomas (15/21)
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Week 2 – (78 plays) Brees (78/100), Sproles (36/46), P. Thomas (32/41), Ingram (21/27),
Collins (29/37), Moore (56/72), Colston (54/69), Courtney Roby (15/19), Greg Camarillo (3/4),
J. Graham (53/68), D. Thomas (22/28), D. Graham (22/28).
Week 3 – (60 plays) Brees (60/100), P. Thomas (26/43), Sproles (25/42), Ingram (12/20),
Collins (16/27), Henderson (51/85), Moore (49/82), Colston (34/57), Roby (7/12), Camarillo
(7/12), J. Graham (36/60), D. Graham (19/32), D. Thomas (19/30).
Collins (12/15), Colston (64/82), Henderson (53/68), Moore (50/64), Morgan (11/14), Roby
(10/13), J. Graham (58/74), D. Thomas (35/45), D. Graham (13/17).
Collins (17/24), Colston (58/81), Henderson (52/72), Camarillo (33/46), Morgan (17/24), Roby
(11/15), J. Graham (37/51), D. Thomas (37/51), D. Graham (17/24).
Week 6 – BYE WEEK
Week 7 – (64 plays) Brees (64/100), P. Thomas (33/52), Sproles (27/42), Ingram (12/19),
Travaris Cadet (1/2), Colston (57/89), Moore (44/69), Henderson (41/64), Roby (12/19), Morgan
(10/16), D. Thomas (39/61), D. Graham (17/27).
Week 8 – (61 plays) Brees (61/100), Sproles (34/56), P. Thomas (25/41), Ingram (6/10), Cadet
(5/8), Collins (17/28), Colston (57/93), Henderson (51/84), Moore (40/66), Roby (5/8), Graham
(40/66), D. Thomas (14/23),
Week 9 – (56 plays) Brees (56/100), P. Thomas (21/38), Ingram (18/32), Chris Ivory (13/23),
Cadet (6/11), Collins (24/43), Colston (44/79), Henderson (38/68), Moore (24/43), Morgan
(19/34), J. Graham (37/66), D. Thomas (19/34)
Week 10 – (62 plays) Brees (62/100), P. Thomas (27/44), Ingram (24/39), Ivory (10/16), Cadet
(6/10), Collins (23/37), Henderson (43/69), Colston (41/66), Moore (27/44), Morgan (25/40), J.
Graham (34/55), D. Thomas (23/37)
Week 11 – (57 plays) Brees (49/86), Chase Daniel (8/14), P. Thomas (22/39), Ivory (17/30),
Ingram (16/28), Cadet (5/9), Collins (29/51), Colston (35/61), Henderson (32/56), Moore
(26/46), Morgan (18/32), J. Graham (32/56), D. Thomas (25/44),
Week 12 – (70 plays) Brees (70/100), Sproles (29/41), Ingram (18/26), P. Thomas 14/20), Ivory
(11/16), Collins (27/39), Henderson (48/69), Colston (43/61), Moore (40/57), Morgan (30/43), J.
Graham (49/70), D. Thomas (20/29),
Week 13 – (77 plays) Brees (77/100), Sproles (35/45), P. Thomas (28/36), Ingram (10/13), Ivory
(8/10), Collins (27/35), Colston (66/86), Henderson (55/71), Moore (46/60), Morgan (24/31), J.
Graham (57/74), Michael Higgins (15/19)
Collins (21/29), Colston (54/75), Henderson (45/62), Morgan (40/56), Moore (29/40), J. Graham
(56/78), D. Thomas (25/35).
Week 15 – (70 plays) Brees (65/93), Sproles (28/40), Ingram (23/33), P. Thomas (21/30),
Collins (22/31), Henderson (51/73), Colston (48/69), Moore (38/54), Morgan (35/50), J. Graham
(49/70), D. Thomas (21/30)
Colston (69/73), Henderson (68/72), Moore (44/46), Morgan (42/44), D. Thomas (55/58), J.
Graham (53/56), Higgins (6/6)
Week 17 – (64 plays) Brees (64/100), Sproles (4062, Ingram (20/31), Ivory (8/12), Collins
(15/23), Colston (50-78), Moore (42/66), Henderson (42/66), Morgan (26/41), J. Graham
(47/73), D. Thomas (14/22).
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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Week 1 – (65 plays) Josh Freeman (65/100), Doug Martin (50/77), D.J. Ware (10/15),
LaGarrette Blount (6/9), Erik Lorig (40/62), Vincent Jackson (63/97), Mike Williams (50/77),
Preston Parker (20/31), Luke Stocker (47/72), Dallas Clark (32/49).
Week 2 – (52 plays) Freeman (52/100), Martin (44/85), Ware (8/15), Blount (1/2), Lorig
(16/31), Jackson (49/94), Williams (45/87), Parker (15/29), Sammie Stroughter (12/23),
Arrelious Benn (3/6), Clark (39/75), Stocker (27/52).
(21/35), Jackson (58/97), Williams (53/88), Benn (29/48), Tiquan Underwood (6/10), Clark
(38/63), Stocker (26/43), Danny Noble (2/3).
Week 4 – (60 plays) Freeman (60/100), Martin (43/72), Blount (12/20), Ware (8/13), Lorig
(12/20), Jackson (57/95), Williams (56/93), Underwood (26/43), Benn (20/33), Clark (33/55),
Stocker (32/53).
Week 5 – BYE WEEK
Week 6 – (53 plays) Freeman (53/100), Martin (27/51), Blount (18/34), D. Ware (8/15), Lorig
(29/55), Williams (50/94), Jackson (49/92), Underwood (17/32), Stocker (33/62), Clark (29/55).
Week 7 – (73 plays) Freeman (73/100), Martin (56/77), Blount (10/14), Ware (7/10), Jackson
(68/93), Williams (66/90), Underwood (43/59), Benn (4/5), Clark (44/60), Stocker (34/47), Nate
Byham (10/14).
Week 8 – (79 plays) Freeman (79/100), Martin (54/68), Blount (14/18), Ware (11/14), Lorig
(41/52), V. Jackson (70/89), M. Williams (64/81), Underwood (37/47), Benn (7/9), R. Barber
(2/3), Stocker (41/52), D. Clark (39/49), Byham (15/19).
(35/54), Jackson (61/94), Williams (52/80), Underwood (31/48), Benn (3/5), Clark (30/46),
Byham (27/42), Stocker (19/29).
(27/63), Jackson (39/91), Williams (37/86), Underwood (11/26), Chris Owusu (3/7), Clark
(24/56), Byham (23/53), Stocker (8/19).
Week 11 – (80 plays) Freeman (80/100), Martin (68/85), Ware (12/15), Lorig (33/41), Jackson
(74/92), Williams (67/84), Underwood (34/42), Benn (7/9), Clark (50/62), Stocker (45/56),
Byham (10/12).
(27/47), Jackson (51/89), Williams (47/82), Underwood (29/51), Owusu (1/2), Stocker (36/63),
Clark (25/44), Byham (7/12).
Week 13 – (67 plays) Freeman (67/100), Martin (56/84), Ware (11/16), Lorig (21/31), Jackson
(66/99), Williams (59/88), Underwood (45/67), Owusu (1/1), Clark (39/58), Stocker (31/46),
Byham (6/9)
(33/46), Jackson (67/93), Williams (61/85), Underwood (33/46), Owusu (7/10), Stocker (44/61),
Clark (32/44), Byham (10/14)
Week 15 – (74 plays) Freeman (62/84), Dan Orlovsky (12/16), Martin (46/62), Ware (16/22),
Blount (13/18), Lorig (15/20) Underwood (60/81), Jackson (60/81), Williams (59/80), Owusu
(12/16), Clark (47/64), Stocker (28/38), Byham (14/19).
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(20/25), Jackson (79/98), Williams (77/95), Underwood (36/44), Parrish (16/20), Clark (46/57),
Stocker (42/52), Byham (7/9).
Week 17 – (xx plays) Freeman (68/100), Martin (62/91), Ware (6/9), Lorig (31/46), Jackson
(65/96), Williams (53/78), Underwood (37/54), David Douglas (6/9), Stocker (46/68), Clark
(21/31), Byham (13/19),
NFC WEST
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Week 1 – (62 plays) John Skelton (50/81), Kevin Kolb (12/19), Beanie Wells (13/21), LaRod
Stephens-Howling (20/32), Ryan Williams (20/32), Larry Fitzgerald (59/95), Andre Roberts
(51/82), Early Doucet (30/48), Michael Floyd (17/27), Todd Heap (46/74), Jeff King (29/47),
Rob Housler (6/10).
Week 2 – (63 plays) Kolb (61/97), Wells (24/38), Williams (22/35), LaRod Stephens-Howling
(13/21), Anthony Sherman (21/33), Fitzgerald (62/98), Roberts (54/86), Doucet (27/43), Floyd
(5/8), Heap (54/86), King (28/44), Housler (23/37).
Week 3 – (62 plays) Kolb (61/98), Williams (22/35), Stephens-Howling (21/34), Wells (14/23),
Sherman (10/16), Fitzgerald (56/90), Roberts (46/74), Floyd (35/56), Doucet (23/37), Housler
(48/77), King (33/53).
Week 4 – (72 plays) Kolb (72/100), William Powell (34/47), Williams (33/46), Sherman
(12/17), Fitzgerald (72/100), Roberts (68/94), Doucet (46/64), Floyd (31/43), Housler (43/60),
King (20/28)
Week 5 – (81 plays) Kolb (81/100), Williams (43/53), Powell (12/15), Alfonso Smith (10/12),
Sherman (22/27), Fitzgerald (80/99), Roberts (77/95), Doucet (54/67), Floyd (32/40), Housler
(49/60), King (24/30)
Week 6 – (74 plays) Kolb (62/84), Skelton (12/16), Stephens-Howling (39/53), Powell (26/35),
Smith (2/3), Reagan Maui’a (20/27), Fitzgerald (74/100), Roberts (58/78), Floyd (36/49), Doucet
(34/46), Housler (41/55), King (40/54)
Week 7 – (71 plays) Skelton (71/100), Stephens-Howling (54/76), Powell (8/11), Maui’a
(19/27), Fitzgerald (71/100), Roberts (53/75), Doucet (36/51), Floyd (28/39), Housler (50/70),
King (36/51)
Week 8 – (68 plays) Skelton (68/100), Stephens-Howling (29/43), Smith (1/1), Sherman (27/40),
Maui’a (6/9), Fitzgerald (67/99), Roberts (65/96), Doucet (46/68), Floyd (43/63), Patrick
Peterson (1/1), Housler (37/54), J. King (18/26).
Week 9 – (66 plays) Skelton (66/100), Stephens-Howling (51/77), Powell (3/5), Sherman
(21/32), Fitzgerald (64/97), Roberts (55/83), Floyd (39/59), Doucet (19/29), Housler (49/74), J.
King (27/41), Jim Dray (1/2).
Week 11 – (58 plays) Ryan Lindley (43/74), Skelton (15/26), Stephens-Howling (46/79), Powell
(6/10), Sherman (23/40), Fitzgerald (58/100), Roberts (50/86), Doucet (28/48), Floyd (15/26),
Housler (40/69), King (24/41).
Week 12 – (79 plays) Lindley (79/100), Powell (39/49), Wells (30/38), Stephens-Howling (6/8),
Sherman (21/27), Fitzgerald (76/96), Roberts (66/84), Floyd (53/67), LaRon Byrd (3/4), Housler
(66/84), King (33/42), Dray (2/3).
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Week 13 – (54 plays) Lindley (54/100), Wells (23/43), Powell (19/35), Stephens-Howling
(10/19), Sherman (11/20), Fitzgerald (54/100), Floyd (51/94), Doucet (31/57), Housler (48/89),
King (23/43).
Week 14 – (59 plays) Skelton (33/56), Lindley (26/44), Powell (35/59), Wells (13/22),
Stephens-Howling (8/14), Sherman (14/24), Fitzgerald (59/100), Roberts (44/75), Floyd (38/64),
Doucet (13/22), Housler (47/80), King (23/39).
Week 15 – (54 plays) Lindley (53/98), Wells (25/46), Powell (20/37), Stephens-Howling (8/15),
Sherman (18/33), Fitzgerald (49/91), Roberts (37/69), Floyd (35/65), Byrd (3/6), Housler
(38/70), King (30/56), Dray (7/13).
Week 16 – (74 plays) Lindley (48/65), Brian Hoyer (26/35), Powell (32/43), Stephens-Howling
(29/39), Wells (8/11), Sherman (15/20), Fitzgerald (74/100), Roberts (68/92), Floyd (51/69),
Byrd (5/7), Patrick Peterson (1/1), King (4/59), Housler (32/43), Dray (7/9).
Week 17 – (55 plays) Hoyer (55/100), Powell (50/91), Stephens-Howling (4/7), Fitzgerald
(55/100), Floyd (46/84), Roberts (46/84), Peterson (1/1), King (34/62), Sperry (22/40), Dray
(17/31).
ST. LOUIS RAMS
Week 1 – (57 plays) Sam Bradford (57/100), Steven Jackson (54/95), Daryl Richardson (2/4),
Isaiah Pead (1/2), Danny Amendola (51/89), Brandon Gibson (45/79), Steve Smith (23/40),
Chris Givens (17/30), Brian Quick (3/5), Lance Kendricks (41/72), Matthew Mulligan (17/32).
Week 2 – (68 plays) Bradford (68/100), Richardson (42/62), Jackson (25/37), Pead (2/3), Brit
Miller (13/19), Amendola (54/79), Gibson (49/72), Smith (34/50), Givens (18/26), Quick (3/4),
Kendricks (60/88), Mulligan (32/47), Mike McNeill (5/7).
Week 3 – (58 plays) Bradford (58/100), Jackson (37/64), Richardson (19/33), Pead (3/5), Miller
(5/9), Amendola (53/91), Gibson (42/72), Givens (12/21), Austin Pettis (11/19), Kendricks
(50/86), Mulligan (17/29), McNeill (11/19).
Week 4 – (61 plays) Bradford (61/100), Jackson (47/77), Richardson (13/21), Miller (16/26),
Amendola (45/74), Givens (42/69), Gibson (36/59), Quick (14/23), Pettis (7/11), Kendricks
(16/29), Amendola (17/30), Givens (44/79), Gibson (35/62), Pettis (18/32), Quick (12/21),
Kendricks (47/84), Mulligan (28/50), McNeill (6/11)
Week 6 – (73 plays) Bradford (73/100), Jackson (45/62), Richardson (28/38), Pead (2/3), Givens
(61/84), Gibson (47/64), Smith (27/37), Pettis (22/30), Quick (17/23), Kendricks (62/85),
Mulligan (25/34), McNeill (8/11).
(3/5), Gibson (43/72), Givens (38/63), Smith (31/52), Pettis (29/48), Quick (10/17), Kendricks
Week 8 – (59 plays) Bradford (52/88), Kellen Clemens (7/12), Jackson (28/47), Richardson
(23/39), Pead (8/14), Terrance Ganaway (5/8), Miller (13/22), Pettis (43/73), Givens (32/54),
Gibson (31/53), Quick (23/39), Smith (9/15), Kendricks (38/64), Mulligan (26/44), McNeill
(16/27).
Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – (84 plays) Bradford (84/100), Jackson (68/81), Richardson (11/13), Pead (5/6), B.
Miller (10/12), Amendola (72/86), Gibson (72/86), Pettis (45/54), Smith (14/17), Quick (7/8),
Kendricks (67/80), Mulligan (35/42), McNeill (9/11).
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Week 11 – (68 plays) Bradford (68/100), Jackson (36/53), Richardson (31/46), Pead (1/1),
Amendola (56/82), Gibson (51/75), Givens (36/53), Pettis (24/35), Quick (14/21), Kendricks
(46/68), Mulligan (24/35), McNeill (20/29), Cory Harkey (1/1)
Week 12 – (58 plays) Bradford (57/98), Clemens (1/2), Jackson (41/71), Richardson (17/29),
Pead (1/2), Givens (49/84), Gibson (43/74), Pettis (26/45), Amendola (8/14), Quick (7/12),
Kendricks (45/78), Mulligan (33/57), McNeill (13/22), Harkey (5/9),
Givens (66/90), Gibson (66/90), Pettis (48/66), Quick (11/15), Smith (5/7), Kendricks (59/81),
Mulligan (25/34), McNeill (11/15), Harkey (1/1).
Week 14 – (69 plays) Bradford (69/100), Jackson (62/90), Richardson (7/10), Pead (1/1), Givens
(66/96), Gibson (56/81), Pettis (38/55), Quick (15/22), Smith (1/1), Kendricks (59/86), Mulligan
(27/39), Harkey (9/13).
Week 15 – (81 plays) Bradford (81/100), Jackson (41/51), Richardson (40/49), Gibson (64/79),
Amendola (61/75), Givens (50/62), Pettis (40/49), Quick (26/32), Kendricks (58/72), Mulligan
(14/17), Harkey (11/14).
Amendola (40/73), Givens (35/64), Gibson (30/55), Quick (14/25), Pettis (9/16), Kendricks
Week 17 – (64 plays) Bradford (64/100), Jackson (51/80), Pead (8/12), Richardson (5/8), Gibson
(53/83), Givens (49/77), Amendola (46/72), Pettis (14/22), Quick (6/9), Kendricks (53/83),
Mulligan (22/34), McNeill (13/20).
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Week 1 – (66 plays) Alex Smith (65/98), Colin Kaepernick (1/2), Frank Gore (49/74), Kendall
Hunter (15/23), Michael Crabtree (45/68), Mario Manningham (29/44), Randy Moss (21/32),
Keiland Williams (16/24), Vernon Davis (64/97), Delanie Walker (33/50).
Week 2 – (62 plays) Smith (62/100), Gore (44/71), Hunter (18/29), Bruce Miller (24/39),
Crabtree (44/71), Manningham (37/60), Williams (22/35), Moss (16/26), Davis (54/87), Walker
(34/55).
Week 3 – (58 plays) Smith (58/100), Gore (46/79), Hunter (11/19), Miller (13/22), Crabtree
(50/86), Manningham (31/53), Williams (24/41), Moss (21/36), Davis (58/100), Walker (24/41).
(40/56), Manningham (32/44), Williams (22/31), Moss (21/31), Davis (61/85), Walker (41/57),
Garrett Celek (14/19)
Week 5 – (67 plays) Smith (53/79), Kaepernick (19/28), Gore (41/61), Hunter (21/31), Anthony
Dixon (6/9), Miller (16/24), Manningham (32/48), Crabtree (29/43), Williams (20/30), Moss
(18/27), Ted Ginn Jr. (12/18), Davis (56/84), Walker (38/57), Celek (14/21).
Week 6 – (61 plays) Smith (45/74), Kaepernick (16/26), Gore (44/72), Hunter (17/28), Miller
(11/18) Crabtree (49/80), Manningham (41/67), Williams (34/56), Moss (17/28), Ginn (1/2),
Davis (61/100), Walker (21/34), Celek (4/7).
Week 7 – (58 plays) Smith (57/98), Kaepernick (1/2), Gore (37/64), Hunter (21/36), Miller
(33/57), Crabtree (39/67), Williams (30/52), Moss (24/41), Ginn (1/2), Davis (58/100), Walker
(40/69), Celek (1/2)
(30/56), Manningham (24/44), Moss (20/37), Williams (16/30), Ginn (7/13), Davis (54/100),
Walker (35/65), Celek (2/4).
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Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – (66 plays) Kaepernick (43/65), Smith (23/35), Gore (54/82), Hunter (11/17), Miller
(27/41), Crabtree (50/76), Manningham (38/58), Williams (30/45), Moss (24/36), Ginn (2/3),
Davis (66/100), Walker (27/41).
Week 11 – (55 plays) Kaepernick (55/100), Gore (39/71), Hunter (11/20), Dixon (4/7), Miller
(25/45), Crabtree (26/47), Manningham (23/42), Williams (22/40), Moss (13/24), Ginn (3/5),
Davis (48/87), Walker (34/62), Celek (8/15)
Week 12 – (60 plays) Kaepernick (60/100), Gore (48/80), Hunter (8/13), Dixon (2/3), Brandon
Jacobs (2/3), Miller (37/62), Crabtree (35/58), Moss (25/42), Manningham (24/40), Williams
(10/17), Davis (60/100), Walker (31/52), Celek (5/8).
Week 13 – (76 plays) Kaepernick (76/100), Gore (66/87), Jacobs (8/11), Miller (46/61),
Crabtree (47/62), Moss (31/41), Manningham (27/36), Ginn (14/18), Davis (76/100), Walker
(39/51), Celek (3/4).
Week 14 – (57 plays) Kaepernick (57/100), Gore (39/68), James (15/26), Dixon (3/5), Miller
(29/51), Crabtree (43/75), Moss (29/51), A.J. Jenkins (8/14), Ginn (4/7), Davis (57/100), Celek
(3/5).
(37/54), Moss (47/69), Crabtree (43/63), Jenkins (8/12), Ginn (5/7), Davis (67/99), Walker
(48/71), Celek (9/13).
(20/35), Crabtree (50/88), Moss (42/74), Manningham (24/42), Walker (44/77), Celek (29/51),
Davis (17/30).
(36/54), Crabtree (54/81), Moss (36/54), Jenkins (19/28), Ginn (7/10), Davis (60/90), Walker
(41/61), Celek (11/16).
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Week 1 – (75 plays) Russell Wilson (75/100), Marshawn Lynch (59/79), Robert Turbin (8/11),
Leon Washington (6/8), Michael Robinson (16/21), Sidney Rice (66/88), Braylon Edwards
(59/79), Doug Baldwin (50/67), Ben Obamanu (9/12), Charly Martin (8/11), Zach Miller
(67/89), Anthony McCoy (26/35)
Week 2 – (64 plays) Wilson (64/100), Lynch (43/67), Turbin (11/17), Washington (7/11),
Robinson (26/41), Golden Tate (33/52), Rice (33/52), Obomanu (27/42), Baldwin (18/28),
Edwards (9/14), McCoy (47/73), Miller (45/70), Evan Moore (21/33).
Week 3 – (56 plays) Wilson (56/100), Lynch (48/86), Turbin (2/4), Washington (1/2), Robinson
(19/34), Tate (46/82), Rice (44/79), Martin (30/54), Obomanu (12/21), Edwards (4/7), Miller
(37/66), McCoy (18/32), Moore (17/30).
Week 4 – (61 plays) Wilson (61/100), Lynch (44/72), Turbin (10/16), Robinson (22/36), Rice
(50/82), Tate (45/74), Baldwin (24/39), Obomanu (20/33), Edwards (5/8), Miller (48/79),
McCoy (31/51), Moore (3/5).
(45/69), Tate (41/63), Obamanu (22/34), Baldwin (16/25), Edwards (10/15), Miller (59/91),
McCoy (27/42), Moore (8/12).
Robinson (15/26), Rice (49/86), Tate (47/82), Baldwin (21/37), Obomanu (13/23), Edwards
(5/9), Miller (53/93), McCoy (20/35), Moore (8/14)
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Robinson (25/45), Rice (43/77), Tate (34/61), Obomanu (27/48), Edwards (12/21), Baldwin
(8/14), Miller (48/86), McCoy (22/39), Moore (8/14).
Week 8 – (56 plays) Wilson (56/100), Lynch (35/62), Turbin (13/23), Washington (2/4), Tate
(49/88), Rice (48/86), Martin (25/45), Obomanu (14/25), Miller (55/98), McCoy (22/39), Moore
(2/4).
Week 9 – (75 plays) Wilson (75/100), Lynch (50/67), Turbin (20/27), Robinson (28/37), Tate
(69/92), Rice (64/85), Baldwin (32/43), Martin (14/19), Jermaine Kearse (3/4), Miller (63/84),
McCoy (29/39), Moore (3/4)
Robinson (21/29), Rice (50/69), Tate (50/69), Baldwin (30/42), Edwards (22/31), Kearse
(11/15), Miller (68/94), McCoy (37/51), Moore (1/10).
(48/84), Tate (47/82), Baldwin (18/32), Edwards (9/16), Kearse (5/9), Miller (53/93), McCoy
(32/56), Moore (6/11).
Robinson (13/18), Rice (68/96), Tate (67/94), Baldwin (36/51), Edwards (14/20), Miller (67/94),
McCoy (25/35), Moore (1/1).
Week 14 – (69 plays) Wilson (39/57), Flynn (30/43), Turbin (29/42), Lynch (21/30),
Washington (15/22), Robinson (28/41), Baldwin (49/71), Tate (48/70), Rice (44/64), Kearse
(21/30), McCoy (41/59), Miller (33/48), Moore (16/23).
Week 15 – (58 plays) Wilson (54/93), Flynn (4/7), Lynch (25/43), Turbin (22/38), Washington
(6/10), Robinson (17/29), Tate (45/78), Baldwin (38/66), Rice (38/66), Kearse (16/28), Miller
(48/83), McCoy (31/53), Moore (4/7).
Week 16 – (65 plays) Wilson (62/95), Flynn (3/5), Lynch (47/72), Turbin (17/26), Robinson
(22/34), Baldwin (53/82), Tate (49/75), Rice (25/38), Kearse (17/26), Deon Butler (7/11), Miller
(51/78), McCoy (30/46), Sean McGrath (7/11).
(50/83), Tate (47/78), Baldwin (41/68), Kearse (4/7), Miller (58/97), McCoy (25/42), McGrath
(1/2).
~ end ~
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Fantasy Impact: Pass-Catching RBs
July 26, 2013
by: John Cooney
Fantasy football titles are won by maximizing the assets of a roster, squeezing out every ounce
of point production available. Some luck is involved and planning is a must in order to set up
lucky opportunities. One way to creatively uncover hidden fantasy points is by expanding the
utilization potential of the players occupying roster space; can’t score without the football inhand. Quarterbacks need to be dropping back and tossing the rock, receivers have to be targeted
and running backs require regular handoffs. In today’s gridiron philosophies of offense pass
attempts are rising and pass receptions are trending upward while the number of weekly handoffs
to tailbacks continues a downward projection. The one-dimensional “feature” back that plodded
along relying mainly on grounding out production by carrying the ball twenty-plus times a game
has transformed into a more swift and well-rounded athlete that “touches” the football through
various means. Handoffs and quick pitches to the flanks still serve as the baseline of tailback
utilization, but in today’s up-tempo offenses running backs that run routes, can get down-field,
catch the football and create in space are key weapons. Pass-catching running backs are now the
‘feature’ backs. In fantasy football circles, route-running, pass-catching backs are starting lineup
gold as well as roster liquidity. The gradual rise to prominence by the sporty good-hands
tailbacks has altered fantasy owners’ draft planning and targeting in the past couple of seasons.
The growing importance of the versatile ball carrier that can double as a receiver in today’s game
adds a jolt of excitement, depth and flexibility on fantasy football rosters as well as on the real
sidelines. Pro coaches utilize their primary and secondary backs in more creative and unique
designs. The game has evolved into a passing one, and those Mastermind offensive architects of
the NFL have made it a point to “feature” the running back position as key contributors in their
overland attack schemes.
Like the traditional ground-bound backs of the recent past, there are different pass-catching
backs excelling in many roles, displaying various degrees of talent, style, purpose and
performance. These backfield pros are third-down options, the safety valve, security blanket,
space makers and mismatch-makers for quarterbacks. Pass-catching running backs fall into three
performance categories: Play-makers, Chain-movers and Safety valve. Playmakers are explosive
backs that can ‘take it to the house’ on any given snap, striking fear in the opposing defense.
Simply put, the Play-makers are a coach’s weapon and other than quarterback, they are the
weapon of choice for fanballers. Speed, elusiveness, consistent use of hands in catching the
football and the ability to run sharp, fluid routes at mid-range and deeper make up the profile of
this explosive instant offense point getter. In the NFL, the playmaking tailback has become a top
red-zone touch target. Red-zone touches are fantasy football gold. Chain-movers tend to be wellrounded ball carriers that possess modest skills, reliable hands, responsible pass-blocking ability
and a nose for the ‘sticks’. Chain-movers often are adequate in speed and moves, and can be
quite effective should they be pressed into full-time duty. They bring depth as fantasy value with
the spot-start during bye weeks or an advantageous matchup. Safety valve types might be called
a quarterbacks last resort. They may not have the greatest skill set, yet they ‘compile’ aboveaverage reception totals. These backs are the dump-off; the last read a QB makes when all else in
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the pass route tree has broken down. These mostly stay-at-home rushers often possess limited
speed or escapability, and hardly create extra yards after the catch. Their numbers often don’t
equate to making a difference in fantasy football contests on a weekly basis.
Here is a breakdown of the pass-catching running backs readying for action in 2013 and their
various methods of expected deployment.
THE PLAYMAKERS:
The A-List
Jamal Charles, Chiefs
LeSean McCoy, Eagles
Ray Rice, Ravens
Darren Sproles, Saints
CJ Spiller, Bills
Doug Martin, Buccaneers
Reggie Bush, Lions
Darren McFadden, Raiders
Matt Forte, Bears
The B-List:
Shane Vereen, Patriots
Isaiah Pead, Rams
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
Chris Johnson, Titans
Arian Foster, Texans
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Lamar Miller, Dolphins
David Wilson, Giants
Daryl Richardson, Rams
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Jamaal Charles is giddy over his prospects for success in 2013. Former Eagle boss Andy Reid
now calls the plays for the Kansas City offense and Charles now gets to perform under the best
offensive minds he’s ever played for as a pro. Coach Reid’s famed hybrid West Coast schemes is
getting a bit of a make-over this season with the help of former Nevada University Pistol offense
innovator Chris Ault. The new aggressive, up-tempo playbook utilizes a fast, versatile running
back that can line up all over the field and be a force in the passing game. Jamal Charles fits the
profile to the letter. The KC Comet is a consistent hands-catcher and aggressively smooth route
runner. It is well known that Coach Reid had molded his former Philly tailbacks Brian
Westbrook and LeSean McCoy into high-scoring, dangerous fantasy football producers. McCoy
has averaged 5.4 targets and 4.3 catches a game over the last three seasons, tallying 180 catches
and eight receiving TDs in that span. One can understand Charles’ excitement about suiting up
for the 2013 slate. Set to soar in Coach Reid’s new West Coast Pistol (WCP), Jamal Charles
LeSean “Shady” McCoy, Eagles
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2012 was considered by most a down season for Philly’s LeSean McCoy. Injuries (concussion)
slowed the multi-threat tailback, forcing four missed games and prior to the season former Eagle
coach Andy Reid vowed to cut back on McCoy’s workload. Yet through physical ailments and
Coach Reid’s hollow “promise” of work reduction, McCoy tallied up an average of 21.2 touches
per game last season, down from his 21.4 touch average in 2011; that hardly qualifies as a
reduction. In fact, McCoy’s target average per game rose from 4.6 a contest to 5.6 per;
OUTSTANDING! Enter 2013 and the dawn of the Chip Kelly era in the City of Brotherly Love.
Coach Kelly is widely known for his creative use of running backs, and he gets a dynamo to
work with in LeSean McCoy. McCoy is a fine pass receiver who brings down most targets his
way, even though he does not usually get his hands extended far from his body when pulling the
football in. McCoy mostly cradles the rock as it arrives rather than pluck it, but is rarely late with
his hands. With the ball in-hand, the Eagle halfback is a shifty, shady runner that gains big
chunks of yards leading to those beautiful added fantasy “points after catch” (PAC?- hey, new
terminology!). The Philly rusher is quite adept at setting up the screen, getting north in a hurry,
following his blocks and then exploding into daylight. McCoy showcases keen cut-back and
direction changing ability, often forcing several would-be tacklers to miss, but tends to get a bit
sloppy with his full-speed footwork, forcing a loss of balance in his re-direct. The good news
here is that loss of balance usually comes 10-15 yards upfield, and your FFB points are already
in the bag. Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy is set for a big season in Coach Kelly’s innovative
scheme. His volume of receptions may take a bit of a hit in 2013, but the big plays and
subsequent touchdowns are on the rise.
Ray Rice, Ravens
Baltimore’s PPR machine continues to be the go-to guy in the Raven offense that rarely leaves
the field. Rice is a playmaking pass catcher that is a must-have in fantasy football. Possessing
game-breaking ability and ample opportunity, Rice is likely to see his receiving totals hit career
highs in 2013. Baltimore coaches are talking up Rice stand-in Bernard Pierce in the off-season,
extolling his aggressive running style and promising more game action. While that scenario may
play out it will hardly limit Ray Rice’s fantasy value. The Ravens lost QB Joe Flacco’s best
receiver to free agency, Anquan Boldin, leaving Rice as Flacco’s most reliable pass-receiving
target this season. Rice’s catch total dropped by fifteen (76 to 61) in 2012 and his targets also
saw a noteworthy decrease (104 to 83). However, don’t underestimate the void left by Boldin’s
departure. The Ravens top three wideouts (Torrey Smith, Jacoby Jones and Tommy Streeter) are
mostly field-stretchers that are seldom utilized between the hash-marks. TE Dennis Pitta
assumes that role, but Boldin’s 112 targets need to relocate somewhere… hello Ray Rice! His
three-year catch average is 66.7 and the multi-threat back is sure to blow by that average in
2013. His rushing attempts have actually declined the past three seasons (308-291-257), and that
trend may continue this season. However, Ravens Coach Harbaugh knows where his offenses
bread is buttered, and getting the football into Ray Rice’s hands is a must. Rice has breakaway
ability, is an excellent route runner and a red zone demon. Rice is a blue-chip top-three overall
draft choice who is currently being selected later in the first round of mock drafts… a fantasy
football steal if ever there was one.
Darren Sproles, Saints
The New Orleans mighty mite was once again instant offense in 2012 and the year-long
suspension of HC Sean Payton had little effect on Sproles’ stat lines. In-fact, stand-in head coach
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Pete Carmichael out-did Coach Payton’s aggressive style last season. On the surface Sproles
2012 reception total (75) appears to be a down-tick from his 2011 work. However, the
diminutive sparkplug missed three contests and his catch rate, played out over sixteen games,
measures a lofty and would-be career high (92). A Sproles value fantasy coaches often gloss
over is his ability to cross the goal line. Last season the Saints pass-catcher supreme totaled eight
scores (1 rushing- 7 receiving), and has tallied up seventeen TDs over the past two seasons (3
ground- 14 air). OUTSTANDING! Another fact many fail to realize is the number of yards from
scrimmage Sproles creates; he has amassed 2224 total offensive yards over the past two seasons.
There will be some concerns about his age (30) and years of pro service (8), but Sproles doesn’t
carry the usual abusive mileage of bigger running backs. Plug-n-play with confidence. Coach
Payton returns in 2013 and has made it known that the Saints will run the football more. Fear not
Sproles fans, as that only means more touches/carries for the speedy tailback. Darren Sproles is
set for another outstanding season, and is PPR gold for fantasy football crazies.
CJ Spiller, Bills
Big things began to happen in 2012 for Spiller. Before last season Spiller was tossed around the
offense from RB, to WR, back to RB and the results were underwhelming. Once allowed to
remain as a backfield constant the light came on. Spiller displayed the game-breaking speed and
explosive pass-catching ability, closing out the year with 43 receptions and an outstanding 10.7
YPR. A prime TOUCH 15 back this season, Spiller will see his heaviest workload as a pro and
his catch total in new head coach Doug Marrone’s up-tempo/run-first offense should soar. The
“run-first” tag won’t affect the former Clemson star. The fact that the Bills will likely have shortpassing Kevin Kolb or rookie EJ Manuel at QB only improves Spiller’s reception potential for
the upcoming season. Another factor that raises Spiller’s pass receiving fantasy value in 2013 is
the mostly green wide receiver stable Buffalo has assembled. The Bills will likely field three
rookies (Robert Woods, Da’Rick Rogers and Marquis Goodwin) this season and a second season
“vet” (TJ Graham); Steve Johnson is the only quality veteran WR. CJ Spiller’s game-breaking
speed and ability to line up anywhere in formation, including outside, means opportunity and
mismatches in abundance. 50-plus catches can be expected for the Buffalo playmaker in 2013,
with an outstanding yards-per-reception average as a FFB bonus.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers
HC Greg Schiano likes Doug Martin… a lot! Martin displayed all-around football skills in his
rookie campaign, utilized as a pass receiver, a dependable and tough runner and a rock on pass
protect. Doug Martin never comes off the field. Schiano traded back into the first round of the
2012 draft specifically to select Doug Martin and the player met and exceeded his first-round
expectations. The Tampa Bay tailback snagged 49 passes last season, for a solid 9.6 YPR while
also rushing for 1454 yards (4.6 YPC). Martin is not blessed with great long-speed, however he
has a quick burst and will not be tackled on first contact. The offense is centered around the
tailback known as “Muscle Hamster”, and his use in the passing game should increase in 2013.
Coach Schiano will look to preserve his star attraction by cutting back on the over 300 carries,
shifting Martin in space and reducing the wear-n-tear. Another factor that should bolster Doug
Martin’s receiving potential is the Buccaneers iffy tight end situation. Dallas Clark was not
brought back, leaving Luke Stocker and Tom Crabtree taking most of the TE snaps. Neither has
proven to be target magnets and Martin will most likely be running some of the mid-range lanes
Dallas Clark patrolled last season. Opportunity continues to grow for Doug Martin, both as a
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runner and a receiver. The Ray Rice clone (but a better blocker) never leaves the field and is an
integral part of the Buccaneer passing game. His good hands and clean route running have
earned the confidence of his coaches and quarterback, and fantasy owners can be just as
confident with Doug Martin rubber-stamped in a starting lineup weekly.
Reggie Bush, Dolphins
Here’s a stat many football followers may not realize; in 2012 Lion running backs were targeted
137 times. Reserve tailback Joique Bell saw 69 of those pass intentions and hauled in 52 passes.
That is impressive for a part-time player. Plodding Mikel Leshoure had 48 tosses his way,
snagging 34 of those. Joique Bell is no Reggie Bush when it comes to physical skills, and that is
not a knock on Bell. Mikel Leshoure is not even close to Bush’s game. A couple of seasons ago
the Lions had an offensive plan in place that expected to feature the playmaking talents of Jahvid
Best. Best’s concussion woes threw a wrench into those plans, but now Reggie Bush is in Detroit
to revive the Best-inspired playbook. In his two seasons at Miami, finally as a fulltime tailback,
Bush compiled 2671 yards from scrimmage, including 588 receiving. The former Dolphin added
15 total TDs (3 receiving) and 78 catches and played a 16 game slate for the first time since his
rookie year. Reggie Bush seems to be a darn good “running” back. He is still a top-shelf receiver
and route-runner. Though his catch total dropped a bit in 2012 (43 to 35), Bush raised his YPR
from 6.9 to 8.3, scoring two receiving TDs in the process. In Miami Bush was expected to run
more inside lanes and while he met the challenge well-enough, that is not his game. Getting to
the flanks and creating mismatches is the Reggie Bush way, and the Lions offense is planning on
utilizing the still-fleet running back as such. Detroit has Leshoure on board to handle the tough
yards situations, so Bush should be fresher and available for more explosive opportunities. It is
no secret that the Lions put the football in the air more than any team in the NFL and that suits
Bush just fine. Remember, 137 Lion RB targets in 2012; Reggie Bush now is the point man in
that part of the Detroit playbook. Bush took down 35 balls last season and he could double that
number in 2013.
Darren McFadden, Raiders
Darren McFadden is a playmaking, pass catching tailback that has A-List skills, but his lack of
ability to stay on the field flips his value to the B-side. Health and opportunity are the biggest
keys to quality production for McFadden and his potential fantasy owners. McFadden can be a
top 3 fantasy running back if he found a way to keep off the sidelines with various maladies.
McFadden is explosive but recently he’s his forays into the o-line have lacked conviction and
confidence. The Raiders are changing the offensive scheme (again) moving back to a powerbased theme. A change at QB also is in effect, with Carson Palmer moving on and Doug Flynn
the likely starter. Flynn is short on arm-strength and will be a check down, short range passer,
and that brings McFadden fully into the offensive spotlight as a pass receiver. Blessed with good
hands and breakaway speed, DMC still is one of the best playmaking, pass-catching running
backs in the NFL. He is quite comfortable lining up outside at WR, and his size (6’2-210)
qualifies as a legit “big” WR. Playing inured in most of his twelve appearances on the field last
year, McFadden’s YPR dropped to a career low 6.1 after averaging over 10 a catch the past three
seasons. Despite his limited health and an ill-fitting offensive scheme, the Raider tailback tallied
42 receptions (3.5 per game). If he wasn’t the centerpiece of the offense before, he surely is now.
McFadden’s surrounding talent in the skill positions is paper thin and it is obvious new OC Greg
Olsen is counting heavily on DMC’s performance. If the oft-injured back stays clean, he will be
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one of fantasy football’s top backs as well as a top five pass receiving threat. Health-willing, the
explosive Darren McFadden will provide fanballers with top quality fantasy results and with his
game-breaking ability DMC may not need an inordinate number of touches to get the job done.
Darren McFadden proclaims he is “prove it” mode for 2013; might be just the right time to hop
in the DMC wagon.
Matt Forte, Bears
Marc Trestman is in as the Bears new head coach, and he will have a heavy influence in the
play-calling for 2013. Trestman is thought to be an offensive innovator with an affinitive eye for
Matt Forte’s skills. “I just got done looking at all his catches from 2010,” said Trestman. “He
was on the line of scrimmage, he was running out of the backfield, he is great in space. He has a
skill set that goes full spectrum of what you want out of a running back. … You can make all the
different kinds of throws to him.” That says about all you need to know about Forte’s potential
workload in 2013. Running backs with Forte’s size (6’1-220) usually are utilized as secure
chain-movers, gaining the tough yards and providing pass protection. While he is a noted willing
blocker, Forte breaks the big-back mold by finding ways down-field and creating big plays. His
2012 numbers were down from his norm, but that happens in a stale Mike Tice written playbook.
Tice rolled in promising an aggressive plan, but that never took hold. Forte is a running back that
works well on deep routes and that rarely happened last season. With Coach Trestman calling the
shots, the 2013 promise is a return to getting Matt Forte heavily involved in the passing game, in
creative formations and mismatches. The Chicago tailback isn’t as flashy as KC’s Jamaal
Charles or shifty like Philly’s LeSean McCoy, but he does possess sure hands, excellent route
execution, above average speed and the coaching staff’s attention. Coach Trestman also is set on
having QB Jay Cutler getting the football out of his hands in quicker fashion, which should lead
to more targets headed Forte’s way. Like all running backs, health is a bit of a concern, but for
2013, the call is get all you can from Matt Forte and if a full slate of games is met, this excellent
pass catcher will bring top-shelf fantasy production.
Shane Vereen, Patriots
Shane Vereen looks like one of those talents that is in the right place at the right time. These are
exciting times in New England, some for the wrong reasons (Aaron Hernandez). The Patriots are
fearlessly undergoing a wholesale change in the pass-receiving corps and at the same time
juggling a very unsettled tight end situation. Gone via free agency is long-time Tom Brady fave
Wes Welker from his slot position, versatile RB Danny Woodhead headed to sunny San Diego,
deep threat wideout Brandon Lloyd was not brought back, Rob Gronkowski continues major
injury woes and Aaron Hernandez was released. While the receiving situation looks grim in New
England, ever resilient Coach Bill Belichick hasn’t uttered a single word of concern or worry.
No coach in the game today practices the “next man up” philosophy better than wild Bill. Who
was Wes Welker before coming to the Pats? Woodhead converted from a NY Jets camp wideout
to a solid pass-catching running back. Gronkowski? A good college player but no one expected
the numbers he’s put up as Patriot. Hernandez gained league and fantasy football attention by
being re-created as a multi-faceted TE-WR-RB-FB weapon from the tight end alignment.
Adding up the 2012 pass reception totals of those key ex-Patriots (including Gronkowski due to
his unstable health situation), New England has to find a place for 354 Tom Brady completions.
THREE-HUNDRED AND FIFTY FOUR RECEPTIONS NOW NEED A HOME IN NEW
ENGLAND! Coach Belichick plans ahead, and usually has a well-defined timeline of when a
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plan is to be implements. Shane Vereen’s time is now. Vereen is another of those California
Golden Bear (Marshawn Lynch, Jahvid Best, Justin Forsett) tailbacks that can do it all,
aggressively as well as skillfully. The third-season tailback is an excellent route runner that can
line up outside and mimic wide receiver moves and hands. A consistent hands-catcher, Vereen
possesses legit 4.49 by 40 speed, is just as fast with the ball in his hands and refuses to give up
on a play. What is most impressive is his vision and ability to see open lanes, consistently hit his
cut-back opportunities and use that keen vision in getting open in pass routes. Vereen hit the
football spotlight during last season’s playoffs, logging 124 yards from scrimmage (83 receiving)
and scoring three TDs (2 receiving) in the divisional tilt versus Houston. This off-season Coach
Belichick’s 2011 2nd rounder has been lining up in the hybrid formations created for the
departed Hernandez. The obvious variation this season is where Hernandez was a TE with some
rushing skills, Shane Vereen is a tailback with elite football catching mitts. Right place at the
right time… just the way Coach Belichick planned it.
Isaiah Pead, Rams
NFL GMs and head coaches don’t burn second round draft picks on players without big plans in
mind. Players coming into the pros with that kind of draft day pedigree are afforded every
chance to show what they can do. This is the situation St. Louis’ 2012 second round draft pick
Isaiah Pead finds himself in. The Rams’ second year running back has the most important
variable any player needs to breakout in the NFL… opportunity. Pead already owns the
necessary skills to become a fantasy star; top-end speed (4.39 x 40), excellent vision, consistent
good hands away from his body at reception, confidence in route running and a burning
competitive edge in his makeup. Pead was the lead back at University of Cincinnati but was not
burdened by heavy carry totals (237 his personal high) and brings fresh and energized legs to the
pro ranks. St. Louis allowed aging warrior Steven Jackson and his 172 targets over the last three
seasons walk via free agency, opening the doors for the fast and furious rusher. Fellow 2012
rookie Daryl Richardson saw much more quality action than Pead last season and will compete
for touches. However, while Richardson made a case for his own chances to start in 2013, he
clearly wore down as the season progressed. Isaiah Pead is sudden, hard to knock off his feet, an
excellent receiver and has superior long-speed. QB Sam Bradford has shown a great propensity
to check down to his backs over his young career, and with a healthy dose of snaps Isaiah Pead is
set for a breakout season as a TOUCH-15 back as well as a game-breaking 35-45 catch tailback.
Comparing favorably to the Chiefs’ Jamaal Charles in explosiveness and utilization, Pead has
had experience in various receiving formations including lining up as a slot receiver and out
wide. He shows very good hands, uses them to haul the ball in rather than body the ball and
adjusts well to the ball in the air. The Rams sophomore back is a quick “catch-n-go” receiver, in
that he snaps the ball quickly out of the air and turns upfield without hesitation. With his
explosiveness that leads to added fantasy football points. The 2nd year back is fiery competitive,
outwardly expressing his emotions and excitement for the game and his own work. As a rookie
Isaiah Pead didn’t see much action, netting just 10 total carries, but for a solid 5.4 a pop (54
yards). His running in that small sample was just as he showcased University of Cincinnati;
decisive, tough, fast and a “get north in a hurry” mind-set. No doubt Isaiah Pead will have to
earn his playing time in 2013. He begins the season with a one-game suspension, but Coach
Fisher was already aware of that fact and has publically stated the suspension will have no
bearing on Pead’s chances to win the starting gig. St. Louis drafted Isaiah Pead with a plan in
mind. Steven Jackson was allowed to sign elsewhere and the offense has been redesigned for
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speed and up-tempo action with a quick-hitting passing attack. Isaiah Pead is speed, up-tempo
action and fits in the passing scheme of the 2013 Rams.
DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
If only this gifted Dallas ball carrier could find a way to stay on the field of play! DeMarco
Murray is a fast (4.41x40) tailback with soft hands, excellent receiving technique and natural
route running vision. Murray tallied up 157 college receptions in his Kansas St. career, with a
spectacular 71 in his final season. The former K-Stater burst onto the NFL scene in weeks 7 and
8 of the 2011 season, exploding for 327 yards rushing in his first two starts and went on to haul
in 20 passes over the next four games. Make no mistake, his spectacular introduction to the
league in 2011was no fluke; Murray is a playmaker. Though he has a bit of an injury history the
Cowboy tailback runs effortlessly and is capable of producing top ten scrimmage numbers if he
can stay on the field. In his first two seasons the Cowboy back has missed nine games (3 in 2011,
6 last season). The Dallas offense is a pass-first scheme, and Murray’s utilization is key both as a
runner and receiver. Now comfortable in the Cowboy playbook, the third year rising star has 60plus catch potential with the breakaway skills to create special NFL Network cutaway moments.
With a fast and fluid style, Murray is more of a glider than a fast-twitch runner, tending to roll
into his cuts and breaks, similar to the way former Colt great Edgerrin James got it done. After
returning from his foot injury last season, Murray closed out the 2012 campaign by hauling in
four catches in four of his last five games. He is most effective between the twenties, but
struggles to find the endzone with any consistency, run or receiving. Heading into 2013, like
most running backs, Murray needs to stay healthy and available. He has A-List skills and huge
upside and there is ample opportunity by playing in Dallas’ pass-happy offense. ALA Darren
McFadden, DeMarco Murray is a dynamite fantasy weapon coming out of the backfield and
makes for an explosive dual-threat RB2 in fantasy football lineups.
Chris Johnson, Titans
Last season the Titan offense was supposed to feature a more aggressive air attack… NEVER
HAPPENED! Deposed OC Chris Palmer bored the heck out of his players and fanballers with
his stale, unimaginative play-calling. Palmer… OUT! QB coach Dowell Loggains has the job
and the young playcaller is expected to open it up. That should get the fleet Chris Johnson back
into being a big play threat and more involved in the passing attack. Johnson has been a
headache for his virtual coaches and on field bosses the past couple of seasons, taking plays off
and looking for the big hitter rather than taking what is blocked. His “want” in the passing game
has also waned as he has been slow to get into his routes and at times indifferent sliding out to
the flats after making his blitz reads. However, fanballers need to remember the electric skill set
the Titan tailback possesses. Johnson is still as fast as ever and is a sharp pass receiver with very
good hands and technique. While he does have great speed and is a home-run threat in space,
Johnson is more of a traditional running back that rarely lines up outside and wide. He is most
effective as a receiver darting to the flanks, taking the football in stride as he turns up-field and
then exploding to daylight. He is consistent in getting his hands out from his body, leading to
clean catches and displaying confidence in handling the football. What Chris Johnson needs
most is more opportunity in the air attack. Last season the Titan back saw just 49 targets, down
by 30 from 2011; in the previous three seasons CJ averaged 50 receptions a season. That is
unacceptable and OC Loggains understands that fact. As crisp a route runner as Johnson is, and
sporting breakaway speed, the fleet back disappoints in his ability to get to the endzone after the
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catch; he has just one TD catch in the last three seasons (over 137 receptions). Better use of
Johnson’s speed and hands in the redzone could change that along with a full season of play by
big-armed passer Jake Locker. Locker’s ability to go long and create defensive shifts with his
mobility may also shake Chris Johnson loose for big plays after the catch. Again, key is
Johnson’s commitment to not giving up on plays and working to find open lanes when Locker is
on the run. Attitude and intensity is the call for Chris Johnson to turn his excellent pass catching
skills into fantasy friendly production in 2013
Arian Foster, Texans
Arian Foster knows his way to the endzone, running or receiving. The Houston workhorse has
scored six TD catching the football over the past three seasons. A little alarming is his huge
touch-log (1114 over three campaigns) and the three-season decline in receptions (66-53-40).
Still, Foster is a playmaker who methodically churns out yards from scrimmage and hits the
stripe consistently. He is not built on speed and finesse, but the former Volunteer of Tennessee
‘earns’ big plays by shedding tacklers and then finding that extra gear once in the clear. Foster
runs smoothly and sports soft hands. Many of his catches are of the short, dump-off variety in
which the 230 pounder can turn up field and break off big gains. Coach Gary Kubiak
traditionally targets his running backs heavily in the passing game. That will follow in 2013.
Even with a talented understudy like Ben Tate getting some touches, Arian Foster will grab 45 50 balls and once again pile up yards-from-scrimmage for his fantasy owners.
Adrian Peterson, Vikings
2000 yard rushers usually don’t have the time or energy to get involved in an offenses passing
game. Adrian Peterson somehow worked his way into Minnesota’s air attack by pulling down
forty Christian Ponder tosses last season. AP’s 51 targets were the second highest of his career,
which is quite an accomplishment considering he also carried the football 348 times, again
second most in his pro career. Peterson is not a true pass-catching back in the sense of being able
to run crisp routes or demonstrate clean hands technique, however when a tailback of his
powerfully explosive skill set is tracking down 40 passes in a season, he needs to be included as
a playmaker. Peterson’s recent history suggests he isn’t much of a game-breaker as a receiver,
but again, a runner with his potential to explode over, through or past defenders in space on any
touch qualifies the Viking rusher as a fantasy football difference maker. AP has scored at least
one receiving TD in the past three campaigns. Many fanballers wouldn’t slot the NFL’s rushing
king as a pass-catching running back, but his expansion in the Viking air attack is there for all to
see and has to be addressed. After the incredible workload Peterson experienced in 2012, it
wouldn’t be too big of a stretch to project his carries to drop some while his receptions grow; a
bit of a preservation move by Viking coaches.
Lamar Miller, Dolphins
Lamar Miller is one of the new guys on the pass-catcher block. Miller is set to go the full-service
route as he takes over for departed multi-purpose Reggie Bush. Miller is a tailback on the come
and ready to stake a claim as a fantasy football star this season. The second year pro is a fast and
persevering runner who never gives up on a play. Miami’s new backfield weapon is a good route
runner, patient in setting up the screen and uses his hands well to snap the ball out of the air; he
is an attractive snap-n-go receiver. Possessing excellent field vision and running instincts, Miller
sees and follows his blocking well and gets to his breakaway gear in a hurry when the open lane
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appears. Last season as a rookie Miller rarely saw passing down-n-distance snaps due to a lack
of effective pass protection recognition and the fact that Reggie Bush is one the NFL’s best
receiving backs. Miller has attacked his pass blocking deficiencies with a passion this off-season
and his coaches have taken note. Bush, of course, if now in Detroit. Miami has revamped the
offense to suit young QB Ryan Tannehill, an effort not only to create more big plays but also to
protect the franchise’s investment in their star passer. Miller is sure to be a big part of the
protection project by making himself available on quick flares, shuttles and screens. Once the
ball is in his hands, it’s go time. A 50-plus catch season isn’t out of reason for Lamar Miller in
2013 and with his surprising power and mature approach the results will be rewarding for
fantasy owners.
David Wilson, Giants
David Wilson is getting a whole lot of fantasy football love in the off-season. NY Giant
backfield staple Ahmad Bradshaw now wears a horseshoe on his helmet and Wilson has been
handed the starting gig. The sophomore rusher has explosive speed and the Giants use their
backs often in screen packages and check-down progressions. While Wilson’s physical attributes
are impressive, particularly his speed, he displays an immature feel for the running game and his
pass receiving technique needs work. New York’s new workhorse is impatient with the football
in his hands, often racing past his blocking or changing direction at the first sign of traffic.
Wilson won’t shy away from contact, but his lack of vision and anxiousness forces him to
abandon plays before the blocking takes shape. This is not the best way to run screens in the
NFL as successful backs most often allow the play to flow and evolve in front of them. As a
pass-catcher the second year running back lets the ball into his body far too often, creating a few
balls to bounce off shoulder pads or slip through arms. He is also a bit sloppy with the football
in-hand as his early fumbling issues have been well documented. So why is David Wilson on
the playmakers list? As immature as his game is, Wilson is a big-play threat at any time in the
game, anywhere on the field. The volatile ball carrier can have a negative run or pass play one
snap and hit a home run the next. With that kind of game-breaking potential he will be involved
in the passing game and has to be included in any talk of pass-catching backs with playmaking
ability. Wilson will have to clean up his pass protection and his ball security, but the Giants
committed to Wilson once they allowed Ahmad Bradshaw to walk. David Wilson is not a thing
of beauty in his technique, but he is some kind of dangerous with the ball in his hands.
Daryl Richardson, Rams
As a freshman with the Rams in 2012, Daryl Richardson did well for himself and his pro future.
The younger brother of former Bengals RB Bernard Scott and current Jets WR Clyde Gates runs
with effective speed (4.46x40), some suddenness and has good hands as a receiver. Richardson is
stronger than he appears, particularly strong in his leg drive. The Abilene Christian product
rocked a 40.5 vertical leap and an 11’03 broad jump at his pro day… OUTSTANDING! Though
his measureables are impressive and he grades well in leg strength, Richardson runs with a lack
of power to break through tackles. He does display good wiggle and will make defenders miss,
but tends to slow down in making his moves, cutting away his speed advantages. In many ways
he has a lot of his older brother Bernard Scott in his game in that at times Richardson will dance
behind the line, but he tends to run with a more aggressive attitude than Scott. He also follows
his blockers better when he does stick his foot in the ground, sets up his pass-routes well and will
use his hands consistently as a receiver. Richardson needs to work on his pass-protect and is a
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true liability right now. However he is a fast, multi-skilled running back who can fill a role as a
solid third-down option. Former Rams’ halfback Steven Jackson has moved on to Atlanta, but
standing in Richardson’s path to a bigger role in the St. Louis offense is fellow sophomore Isaiah
Pead. The Rams didn’t burn a 2012 second round pick on Pead to turn him into a change of pace
option, and in the NFL the pedigree draft pick gets the bulk of the opportunities. Daryl
Richardson can get the job done if forced into a bigger role in the passing game. He has the skills
to be effective and the offense compliments Richardson’s skills. He gets on the playmaker list
due to his talent and his 50-catch potential should Pead become incapacitated or a non-factor due
to poor performance. Daryl Richardson has the ability, but opportunity is not quite there yet.
THE CHAIN-MOVERS
Steven Jackson, Falcons
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Trent Richardson, Browns
Mike Goodson, Jets
Freddy Jackson, Bills
Pierre Thomas, Saints
Marcel Reese, Raiders
Toby Gerhart, Vikings
Ahmad Bradshaw/ Vick Ballard, Colts
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Steven Jackson, Falcons
Atlanta Falcon RB Steven Jackson… that just sounds too strange. The longtime Rams rusher
now calls Atlanta his home and works in the most dynamic offense of his career. The hope is that
the workhorse running back has enough tread on his wheels to get the job done. SJax goes into
the 2013 season at 30-years of age, a scary number for NFL feature backs. The double whammy
on Jackson is the heavy mileage and abuse he’s absorbed; 2,395 carries, the most of any active
back. The 2nd gear is burnt out and his days as a playmaker out of the backfield are past.
However, Jackson still brings PPR value in a revamped role that will put up fantasy points and
touches a-plenty. He’s not as spry as before but don’t tell him his game is slowing. The Falcons
no doubt will use Jackson as an every down back, and utilize him even on early downs as a
passing option. There is every reason to believe that the veteran runner will improve on his 38
receptions of last year, and in the process find more room to rumble after the catch. A potent
passing game that forces defenses to attend to playmakers Julio Jones, Roddy White and TEsupreme Tony Gonzalez should provide Jackson with ample running room, especially
underneath routes. While SJax no longer has the burners to break off big plays, his volume and
the natural open space he should find in Atlanta translates into quality yards from scrimmage.
Keep in mind that along with his chain moving exploits Jackson should be a goal line demon;
plodding Michael Turner scored 60 rushing TDs over the past five seasons as a Falcon. Steven
Jackson is set up for that one big last fantasy football hurrah, complete with 40-plus catches and
double digit scores.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
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MJD is at a crossroads as far as running backs are concerned. He has logged a lot of tough miles
on those legs of his, he’s battled the injury bug the past two seasons and his 28 years of age is
more advanced than it appears on paper. The wear-n-tear of being an NFL workhorse tailback
has caught up. Once a playmaking pass-catching back, Jones-Drew is fading to the chain-moving
type. Foot injuries and a possible weight issue are putting the brakes on MJD’s ability to break
off big runs and yards after his catches. If he can make a return to form this season MJD will see
many a “save me” dump off from skittish QB Blaine Gabbert. The PPR value is there, but
fantasy footballers have to wonder how much MJD will be able to do with the ball in his hands
after sitting out 12 games in 2012 and the weight of heavy usage on him. Early on in 2013 MJD
will likely be sluggish as he plays his way into shape. If he makes it through the first half in good
shape, fanballers should expect an uptick in his performance. Still, his receiving quality won’t be
that of big plays and long scores, but his PPR value should see an up-tick as Gabbert’s security
blanket. Maurice Jones-Drew isn’t the same player fantasy owners have come to know, and his
2013 value has defined ceilings… dink-n-dunk days are here.
Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Ryan Mathews had the look of a franchise RB in 2011, breaking the 1000 yard barrier, averaging
4.9 a run and grabbing 50 passes. Then 2012 rolled around and despite proclamations from thencoach Norv Turner that Mathews would lead the NFL in rushing, the bottom drops out and the
perceived playmaking tailback stumbles his way to 3.8 YPC, just 6.5 YPR (down from 9.1 YPR
in ’11) and 1 rushing TD… ICK! His big play ability of 2011 evaporated, especially catching the
football as Mathews rarely shook loose for extra yardage after a catch. Injuries, a concern dating
back to his college days, limited the Charger tailback to 12 games. The hope for 2013 is that
Ryan Mathews little injury file doesn’t open again. Like most backs, he tends to get nicked up,
and he’ll need to learn to play through. San Diego is going through an offensive revamping, from
the line to the skill positions. In 2012 deep threat WR Vincent Jackson flew the SD coop and TD
thief Mike Tolbert moved on to Carolina. Now a new head coach is in place and the San Diego
brass re-stocked the backfield by adding a proven pass-catching running back in Danny
Woodhead. Woodhead will surely cut into Mathews touch count, and so far has been a stand-out
in off-season practices. There are whispers that Ryan Mathews hasn’t learned how to be a pro
and his dedication to the game is less than desired. Mathews has the talent and ability to be a
break away back in the passing game, but has yet learned how to compete at a high level in the
NFL, and thus his playmaking skills fail to materialize. To this point in a still young career, Ryan
Mathews is a flashy chain-mover as a receiver.
Trent Richardson, Browns
They may be hell on cleats in college, but not so hot in the NFL; I’m talking about Alabama
running backs. Lots of praise and attention are heaped on the running back prospects coming out
of ‘Bama the past few years, but they haven’t exactly lit the pro ranks on fire. Any of these
names excite you; Ahmaad Galloway, Shaud Williams, Ken Darby, Terry Grant, Glen Coffee,
Mark Ingram? Trent Richardson? The Browns 2012 prized rookie toughed out an injury plagued
campaign, rushing for over 900 yards and hauling in 51 passes. But his YPC was an anemic 3.6
and his YPR rolled out to a mediocre 7.2. Richardson looks like a poor man’s Ladainian
Tomlinson at first glance, but lacks the daylight darting speed and elusiveness as well as the
route running savvy LT showcased for many years. The 51 catches of a season ago may be
Richardson’s best in his career and a lower reception tally can be expected for 2013. The
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Browns’ bellcow is effective on screens, but is slow to get out to the flats on flares and too rigid
getting downfield and open. Because he is one of Cleveland’s best weapons Trent Richardson is
involved in the passing game. However, his ability to do anything extraordinary as a pass
receiving running back is capped.
Mike Goodson, New York Jets
Oakland let Michael Goodson walk after one season and the New York Jets got the former A&M
Aggie to sign on for 2013. Goodson should share duties with the down-hill running Chris Ivory,
with Goodson being the receiving specialist. Goodson was a solid reserve for the Panthers back
in 2010, hauling in 40 passes that season. The Raiders saw his value as a hedge for the oftinjured Darren McFadden but Goodson himself has battled injuries in his pro career. The Jet
runner possesses potential play-making talents (speed and good hands) but has a few issues in
2013 that will hold him in the chain-moving category. For one, he now plays in a talentchallenged offense, particularly at QB. Another speed bump for Goodson is his own injury
history; he often plays hurt which negates his playmaking ability. New York also has a
competent if less spectacular pass receiving back in Bilal Powell, who will challenge for the
same role Goodson intends to fill. Mike Goodson has flashed, but projecting more than modest
performance results in 2013 would be a reach and not the way to stock a winning fantasy roster.
Fred Jackson, Bills
In 2011, before his untimely injury, Fred Jackson was arguably the best fantasy RB in the game.
AS a rusher he was scintillating, with a 5.5 YPC and six-100 yard games in the ten he played.
FJax also lit it up through the air by snagging 39 footballs at a YPR of 11.3. OUTSTANDING!
Jackson’s pass catching ability is top-shelf, and his lighter workload is sure to translate into a
fresher performer for the year. The reduced workload is due to his advanced age (32), growing
brittleness and the emergence of the spectacular CJ Spiller. Jackson has had his moment in the
sun and now he is quality reserve stock. Probably a half step slower after injury and age, and
playing now in a run-first offense, FJax slides down from playmaker to chain-mover. Spiller now
gets to run the prime big-play routes as he is a superb pass catcher. Spiller owners would be
smart to stash away Freddy Jackson as Spiller’s workload and exposure to the abuse of NFL
defenders increases. Jackson could still provide solid FFB production in an extended string of
games.
Pierre Thomas, Saints
Pierre Thomas is a back with a nose for the end zone and a never-quit running style. Thomas is a
supreme screen receiving tailback who sets up his blocks perfectly and is quick with his catch-ngo technique. He knows his role and plays it to max effort when called upon. Thomas is a
‘tweener hanging between play-maker and chain-mover. The Saints gamer is an opportunist type
back that makes each touch count and has the ability to break for extra yards after catch.
However, he rarely turns those extra yards into long scores, often caught from behind on long
runs or receptions. Lucky Pierre’s value grows in the redone, which is a common occurrence in
New Orleans. He is just as likely to be a target inside the 20 as reception magnet Darren Sproles
Look for the no-nonsense RB to see a bit of an up-tick in carries as Coach Payton promises to
get the run game going in 2013. He still figures in the passing game and brings all-around skills
to that part of the Saints offense.
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Marcel Reece, Raiders
Reece is a converted WR who has packed on the pounds and worked out of mostly the fullback
spot as a pro. Being a former wideout Reece sees open seams well and can uncharacteristically
get downfield consistently. He has solid hands and speed that catches would-be cover defenders
off guard. At 6’3, the speedy fullback also provides a good target for the Raider QBs. His skill
set and past exploits suggest the Oakland pass-catching fullback should be ranked among the
playmakers. In the past three seasons Reece has loaded up 104 receptions for a 10.9 YPR and six
touchdowns; OUTSTANDING! However 2013 brings a change at QB for the Raiders and the
big arm of Carson Palmer has been traded in for the close range caliber arm of Doug Flynn.
Reece is more likely to be catching the football closer to the line of scrimmage this season, and
defenses will have a better opportunity to keep Reece in front of them this season, limiting Reece
to a chain moving option.
Toby Gerhart, Vikings
Toby Gerhart is a sneaky good receiving back who is nimble inside the 20. Before Adrian
Peterson began walking on water in his 2012 return from IR-ville Gerhart rushed for over 500
yards (4.9 YPC), snagged 23 passes and scored 3 times as AP’s stand-in. The former Stanford
star is a solid mid-range route runner and screen set-up man with a confident set of hands.
Gerhart has fantasy value as a pass-catching hand-cuff to Peterson.
Ahmad Bradshaw/ Vick Ballard, Colts
Though these two Indianapolis running backs differ in build Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard
sport similar playing styles. In the past few seasons Bradshaw has added to his fantasy value by
becoming a solid contributor in the passing game. He isn’t one to haul down 50-plus balls but is
quite effective in the red zone. Bradshaw is familiar working in a muddled backfield and chances
are he needs to be a share time running back due to his numerous foot ailments. Ahmad
Bradshaw will rarely take one to the house, but his hands and savvy as a screen receiver bring
chain-moving confidence to the Colt play calling. Vick Ballard is a bigger tailback but has the
same rugged style of game as Bradshaw. Ballard has workhorse capability, quick, effective
footwork and sure hands. Where Bradshaw has some tough miles on his brittle wheels, Ballard is
fresh and raring to go. Ballard is a no-frills performer, but every once in a while he can provide
an ESPN moment, like his acrobatic, twisting launch to the goal line flag last season that
captured the fancy of football fans everywhere. The two Indy backs should split the 2013
tailback touches, with Vick Ballard being the up-side choice.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Jonathan Stewart is now a and effective pass receiver out of the Carolina backfield (glass-ankles
permitting). Stewart’s 2012 season was once again marred with various ailments, but in 2011 the
Panther running back hauled in 47 footballs and moved into the ranks of pass catching backs. In
2013, as he efforts to work his way back from double ankle surgery, Stewart will be counted on
to supply chain-moving receptions via screens, short-shuttle tosses and quick dump-offs. Prior to
the many lower-body issues Stewart might have been considered playmaking material, but the
seemingly never-ending medical interruptions has capped his ability to consistently hit the big
gainers. Still Stewart possesses considerable running talent and he is likely to produce attractive
fantasy points even with a reduction in the catch column. He is still young (26) and his volume
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of past work/touches is not a burden. The Carolina tailback isn’t a smooth route runner and
rarely is called to run creative patterns.
THE SAFETY VALVE
Frank Gore, 49ers
Frank Gore is still a warrior back but his 50 catch, big-play days are over. LaMichael James and
a returning to health Kendall Hunter now get the play-making calls for ‘Frisco as Coach
Harbaugh wants more dynamic results out of his pass-catching backs. While the 49er lead back
is still a productive runner, his current receiving role is to maintain a drive or two and protect
now-franchise QB Colin Kaepernick.
Mike Tolbert, Panthers
The Carolina bull-rusher is also a superb pass receiver. Tolbert won’t be heading down-field
much in his target opportunities, but he knows how to make himself available to his QB in
pressure situations, staying close to the line of scrimmage as a safety outlet. The burly back has
an ailing (again) Jonathan Stewart and a dependable DeAngelo Williams in front of him, limiting
his chances. Tolbert does figure in on passing downs and key short-yardage situation, especially
near the goal line.
KEEP AN EYE ON:
Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (Chain-mover)
Rodgers is small (5’5”-195), but powerfully built. Caught 142 passes during his Oregon St.
career, including a 78 catch season in 2009. He’s been able to improve his pass protection which
will help him see the field more often.
LaMichael James, 49ers (Playmaker)
An all-purpose type running back now playing in a power blocking scheme with a growing readoption influence in San Francisco . James is a playmaking back with excellent hands and fine
route running chops. The SF tailback has keen vision, runs decisively and is a tough out once
into the second level of the defense. He is a perfect fit in the move offense led by Colin
Kaepernick.
Daniel Thomas, Dolphins (Chainmover)
Thomas possesses solid pass catching skills but disappoints with the ball in-hand. He’s a bigger
back, measuring around 230, but has nimble feet and reliable hands. Though big Thomas fails to
run with power or speed; a chain-mover more than a playmaker in the passing game.
Alex Green, Packers (Playmaker)
Sometime ya’ gotta’ call ‘em like you see ‘em. The Packers were high on Green as he made his
return from his early 2011 injury. However Green rushed his way back and was never at 100% in
2012. He is an excellent all-around running back, a willing pass blocker and gets into his pass
routes quickly. Sporting good hands and good route running, able hit a 2nd gear and beat
defenders if fully healthy. Green has playmaker ability and if he is let go by the Pack his new
destination could open the doors to a new FFB star.
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Bryce Brown, Eagles (Playmaker)
Bryce Brown plays behind LeSean McCoy, and that may cap his 2013chances to showcase.
However, in a Chip Kelly offense the snap count is fast and plentiful, and the running backs are
used extensively. Brown is a physical beast that ran a 4.37 at his pro day. Rated over Trent
Richardson coming out of high school, Brown can do all things on the field in a dynamic way.
He’s raw and has yet to figure out how to gain yards after the catch as a pro. But Brown bears
keeping an eye on… he’s a talent.
Ronnie Hillman, Broncos (Playmaker)
Compared to Marshall Faulk, Hillman needs to learn to get his shoulders squared up field and
go. Too much of a dancer so far to make NFL defenders miss. Has good receiving skills, but
needs to learn to run his routes cleaner and must pick up his pass-protect skills a full notch
before being trusted with a more meaningful workload.
Cyrus Gray, Chiefs (talented Chain-mover)
Cyrus Gray may be lost in the Chiefs running back depth charts but his skills fit Coach Reid’s
requirements well. Gray catches well out of the backfield and has enough vision to follow
blocks. He is a solid hands-catcher and has shifty feet. Could be a camp surprise and a 2013
outta-nowhere star if the injury bug ravages KC again.
THE FRESHMEN (rookie ball-hawking backs and the category they will likely fall into)
Giovani Bernard, Bengals (Playmaker)
A well-rounded tailback that can quickly elevate to a feature back role as a freshman. Fast, pure
hands catcher and solid route runner, with a QB that needs a short range playmaker handy.
LeVeon Bell, Steelers (Chain-mover)
The Steeler rookie rusher is big (6’1-plus) and logged a lot of miles at Michigan State last
season. Bell is a confident short-range pass catcher that adds some after-the-catch ability, but
lacks the over-drive to break away for big scores. Bell was a consistent performer in the Spartan
passing game; catching the football is not new to Bell.
Mike Gillislee, Dolphins (Chain-mover)
Gillislee may be the most pro-ready rookie halfback in the 2013 crop. Gillislee is a confident
receiver, a stand-up pass protector and a better-than-average runner. The Miami newcomer isn’t
a burner but runs with conviction and focus. Think Joseph Addai without that extra gear. Could
make Dolphin disappointment Daniel Thomas expendable.
Johnathan Franklin, Packers (Playmaker)
Franklin has multi-dimensional skills and uses them all well. He is not great in any one area, but
is solid enough to play three downs if opportunity presents itself. The Packer rookie needs to
improve in his pass blocking to see more pro snaps, and that can lead to disappointment for those
fanballers who reach here.
Eddie Lacy, Packers (Chain-mover)
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Eddie Lacy gets the first shot at taking first team snaps and is a competent pass catcher. He’ll
have to figure out the speed of NFL defenses and likely will at best just get what is blocked in
year one. Though a big, tough ‘Bama back who gets tough yards, Lacy possesses some nifty feet
and is effective getting outside on screens and swings. He can develop into a playmaker as the
game slows down for him. For now, he’s an up-side chain-mover.
Closing Notes:
Running backs that possess the ability and the opportunity to get into pass patterns outside or
upfield or space provide fantasy football owners a chance for creative point accumulation. Those
pass catching backs that bring speed and elusiveness to the field are lethal weapons as they not
only create additional points but can do it in a hurry. Explosive receiving halfbacks can change
the outcome of a fantasy football contest on a single swing pass, screen set up, shuttle toss or an
opportune wheel route. The beauty of “play making” backs is that they do not need a higher
volume of carries or an abundance of touches to turn an FFB loss into an improbable, comefrom-behind fantasy victory. Home run hitters like Jamal Charles, CJ Spiller, Chris Johnson,
Reggie Bush, David Wilson and Darren Sproles have the game-breaking speed, shiftiness and
wide receiver-like skills to blast a blasé six carries for eighteen yards into seven TOUCHES, 93
yards and a touchdown on a single target. In today’s up-tempo NFL, pass-catching playmakers
out of the backfield are FFB gold. Those tailbacks and a scattered few fullbacks that are valued
as CHAIN-MOVERS should not be overlooked in fantasy drafts. Most of these ball carriers are
very worthy of inclusion in NFL passing schemes; often they lack the track-star speed of the
playmakers. They also all come up short in another most important category for FFB success;
opportunity. Skill players need the football to be standout fantasy producers. Chain-moving
backs tend to see third-down snaps, or take the field in specific down-n-distance situations.
These understated performers also are usually adept in pass protection, often held out of patterns
to pick up blitzing linebackers or kamikaze defensive backs. But given the snaps and quality
action tailbacks such as Ahmad Bradshaw, Vick Ballard, Pierre Thomas, Fred Jackson and Toby
Gerhart could make their fantasy football owners look like geniuses in a playoff stretch run.
They are not flashy but they know how to get the job done and with volume, the results are
fantasy-effective.
Opportunity is key as well as speed, hands and route-running ability. The rosters of NFL teams
are littered with potential game breakers in 2013. Fresh legs are ready to hit the spotlight (Isaiah
Pead, Shane Vereen, Lamar Miller, David Wilson) and the opportunity is there. In the everchanging world of pro football, success comes to those who stay informed, recognize key trends,
act and adapt promptly, daring to win rather than playing it safe. Pass-catching running backs
come in many packages and championship fantasy football coaches will be utilizing these multidimensional weapons on the way to a prosperous season.
~ end ~
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The Local Live Draft... What to Expect
August 9, 2013
by: H.D. Coelho
August is upon us, and for most of us, this is our most popular draft month. I personally
have done many drafts over my last 20 plus years playing fantasy sports. Drafts of many kinds;
standard, PPR, IDP, serpentine, slow draft, email draft, and live draft. In my mind, there is
nothing like a live draft, and especially a local league where you have known your fellow league
mates forever. It seems like every live league has a familiar cast of characters. For those of you
new to fantasy, here are your regular fellow owners.
Mr. Lucky-The way this guy plays defies explanation. Using a inattentive fly-by-the-seat
of his pants management style, he often makes the playoffs and even challenges for a title every
so often. Real life example- Mr. Lucky sets his week one lineup then disappears. No one hears
from him all season. Meanwhile, his starting lineup suffers various ailments including a running
back with a broken leg. He still wins 2nd place.
The Homer-Ok, secretly we all love this guy. Why shouldn’t we? We may be able to
grab Julio Jones or AJ Green because the homer must have Tavon Austin or Isaiah Pead. Real
life example-In a dynasty league with 19 man roster, the homer has Tavon Austin, Brian Quick,
Daryl Richardson, and Jared Cook. He would still have SJax if he hadn’t been traded to the
Falcons. I loved watching the greatest show on turf as much as anyone, but c’mon man, that was
over a decade ago. This one works both ways however, as if you want to draft Peyton Manning
or Andrew Luck you may have to outreach the Colts homer.
The Smart Alec- I don’t know if every league needs one, but every one seems to have
one. Every season this guy has it all figured out and is eager to show everyone that fact. During
the draft, he is also the first to jump on everyone’s “bad” picks. Real life example-a fellow
league mate mistakenly drafts someone who just tore his ACL, the smart alec berates him for
being stupid for 3 minutes before taking someone with a shoulder separation with his very next
pick.
The Conspiracy Theorist-every season there is some other reason why he loses other than
he is just not good. The draft shouldn’t be serpentine, you rigged the schedule, no one will trade
with me, etc. Real life example-This guy actually made a speech before our draft last year
stating that I had won enough, and they all must team up to stop me. As if what I do has any
bearing why he never even tops his division.
The Smack Talker-This guy is the worst in my opinion. You really do focus sometimes
on stopping this guy because heaven forbid he actually ever wins. His smacketh will runneth
over all year long. Next thing you know his wardrobe consists entirely of shirts and hats he
made up to commemorate his title. Real life example-after 20 years he sneaks into the playoffs
with a wildcard berth, wins a championship by 2 points, then proceeds to school us on how he
assembled the greatest fantasy team in league history.
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Mr. Nice Guy- We all know it takes a little bit of a killer instinct to have fantasy success.
This guy has none of it. He won’t even take someone in a draft because he knows someone else
wants him. You want to slap him, but he is such a dang nice guy. He is also very likely to be the
draft host and put up a helluva spread. Real life example-after some thought, he drafts Correl
Buckhalter instead of Westbrook, because the owner drafting after him is a real diehard Eagles
Fan.
Mr. Clueless- I will have to assume this guy just plays a lot of video games, because we
know for a fact he is not that busy. He claims to not need any of those fancy fantasy websites
either. His tried and true magazine is just fine. Good times abound watching this guy draft with
6 month old information. Real life example-To eliminate any hard decision making, he just
drafts the guy on the cover of the magazine as his first overall pick for 4 years in a row, when he
still doesn’t win, the next season he takes Steelers defense at the 1.01. “What? They are the top
defense, aren’t they?
The Champion-This may very likely be you. You who takes the time to subscribe to a
site like FFMastermind.com. You talk football year around, and even watches last year's
replays. You try and be humble, let the results speak for themselves. Congrats to you, and good
luck dealing with the rest of these characters.
~ end ~
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Backup QBs – Who’s the Next Tony Romo?
August 9, 2013
by: Chris Rito
Here is a look at all the NFL backup QBs in 2013 from a fantasy perspective. This does not
mean that these QBs are necessarily worth drafting in their own right; rather, the reality of the
situation is that you are likely to consider them only as a draft-day “handcuff” to the man in front
of them on the depth chart, if at all. Nor does a high rank on this list indicate that they are
actually even good NFL backups, just that they would have fantasy value. In very large leagues,
or leagues in which you have a lot invested in the starter at QB, you definitely want to know the
status of the guy holding the clipboard. Truthfully, there are not as many interesting candidates
on this list for your fantasy draft as there have been in some recent years… but there are a few
exceptions for whom it could be worth your while to take a second look.
THE TOP TEN
1) Shaun Hill, DET: Stafford is a stud in the making and a tough guy, but the O-line in Detroit
is atrocious and he could again take a beating and possibly miss time. Shaun Hill has always
performed well when given the chance – in fact, he looked like the best QB on the roster in SF
but lost out in the money game to Alex Smith. Hill did put up QB#1 numbers while subbing for
Stafford in 2010, throwing for over 285 yards in 5 of his 9 starts that year. His teams have also
averaged 22.4 points in his 26 starts as a pro, so he will put up points. Then again, throwing to
Calvin Johnson and all the other young options in Detroit makes for a productive fantasy option
so he is worth a long look late in your draft.
2) Kyle Orton, DAL: Besides having a lot of starting experience, he has the right mental
makeup to come in off the bench and finish a game or to start for an extended period of time if
necessary. The offensive weapons are deep, the running game will protect him, and his smarts
will give him a chance to have great success. Orton is a great guy to have around with all the
egos in that locker room, and will be a calming and respected influence on and off the field. He
has a record over 0.500 as a starer in the NFL, and that is rare for a backup that used to be a
starter.
3) T.J.Yates, HOU: The Texans passed for almost 4000 yards last season and 22 TDs….all with
a focus on the running game, and no viable second receiver. There is no reason to believe that
this team won’t again be able to pass the ball well, and the running game certainly garners a lot
of attention from opposing defenses.. Schaub is always an injury risk, so that always is cause for
concern. Yates also had a fine performance as an unheralded rookie in 2011 without many of the
Texans' best weapons around him.
4) Matt Hasselbeck, IND: The wily veteran is still a top-notch performer and could put up very
solid fantasy numbers if forced to sub for Andrew Luck. I have more faith in him as an NFL
QB, leading the Colts to wins, than I do for his fantasy output, but he should be serviceable,
especially as a bye week fill in. Even in his struggling last few seasons in Tennessee, he
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occasionally put up huge fantasy games. I would expect him to favor the veteran Wayne even
more heavily should he get under center.
5) Ryan Fitzpatrick, TEN: Fitzgerald is an experienced starter and sub, and a very smart
player. With talented wideouts like Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright, and a speed burner back in
Chris Johnson, the Titans could be a possibly explosive dark horse offense in 2013 that could
continue to put up similar numbers if something should happen to Jake Locker. Fitz would not
amass the scrambling yards that Locker will get, but he is superior and more experienced passer,
especially in the red zone.
6) Dan Orlovsky, TB: While not the accomplished passer that is Josh Freeman, Orlovsky could
surprise many by his fantasy output if called on to play. This Bucs team is on the rise in 2013
and many pundits expect the offense to be quietly efficient and above-average in production.
Orlovsky did yeoman's work in Detroit for a terrible 0-16 Lions' team a few years back, and
actually played well (with a worse team) for a 2-14 Colts' squad in 2011, leading them to their
only victories after taking the reins. It is not a good pick to insure your backup if you draft
Freeman this year (so far, a low-end #2 according to ADP), but he could be a surprising value
pickup on the waiver wire should Freeman get knocked out.
7) Drew Stanton, ARI: He has been a solidly in-demand backup for his entire career, and has
always been highly praised by every coach he has played under. The fact that Bruce Arians made
a point of bringing him to Arizona with him speaks volumes about his comfort level with
Stanton if necessary. It also should not be missed that Stanton is actually more familiar with the
Arians' offense than the starter Carson Palmer, due to his year in Indianapolis with Arians last
season. The fact that Palmer is immobile and will stand in the pocket a long time for the deeper
routes to develop, coupled with the Cardinals' shoddy O-line could mean that Stanton will get a
chance to throw to Larry Fitzgerald this season.
8) David Carr, NYG: This is starting to become repetitive….durable star QB locked in as a
starter, championship-caliber team with above-average weapons outside and a great running
game, veteran backup QBs with NFL experience as a starter, etc. etc. etc. David Carr has a very
prolific set of receivers and will be expected to produce in a similar fashion. Carr is a far more
talented passer than his reputation - there is a reason he was the #1 overall pick by the expansion
Texans a while ago, where he took a beating for years. It remains to be seen what he can do with
some actual talent around him!
9) Matt Cassel, MIN: With the league’s #1 weapon behind him, Cassel should have
opportunities to throw if he is on the field. Of course they have no one proven to which he can
throw, but.... Cassel obviously had two solid years in his 4 seasons as a starter, including a
ProBowl trip, so he clearly can perform if given the chance and may actually be just as
successful as Ponder statistically should he get on the field. The fact that the Vikings have
playoff aspirations could even give the coaches a short leash with Ponder, and give Cassel a
chance to step into the starting lineup without an injury.
10) Kirk Cousins, WAS: Cousins lit up the Browns for over 300 yards and a key rushing score
in a late-season win in relief of the injured RG3. Many in the league think that he is among the
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best options at backup QB, and the reckless running of Griffin could give him another chance to
prove it. Even the third stringer Rex Grossman is a former Super Bowl QB, so I actually expect
the aerial fantasy production to stay reasonably consistent if RG3 gets hurt again.
THE BEST OF THE REST
Colt McCoy, SF: After jettisoning the athletic Alex Smith in favor of the ludicrously athletic
Colin Kaepernick, the team made a smart move in signing Colt McCoy to be the understudy.
Because of the youth and athleticism that McCoy brings, the offense would not need to change
much if Kaepernick should get hurt. The fact that McCoy is only 25 years old and already has a
fair amount of starts under his belt means that the Niners likely would not miss a beat if they had
to start McCoy for any stretch of time. While he likely would not get nearly as many rushing
yards and points as the starter, he would be serviceable in a pinch as a passer.
Geno Smith, NYJ: This is one of those rare cases where the backup QB should actually put up
better fantasy numbers than the starter if he gets in the game. Admittedly, exceeding Mark
Sanchez's totals is not a monumental task, but Smith's ability to tack on rushing yards should
give him a leg up in the veteran Sanchez in a direct stat comparison. The bigger concern is
whether Geno Smith will give those bonus points away by being a turnover machine...
Chad Henne, JAX: He might actually win out and be the starter as the season starts, but the
reality is that Henne is a far superior passer and far more experienced than the erratic Gabbert.
Henne put up some decent games after stepping in last year, and with Jacksonville's struggles on
defense he could be asked to again put the team on his back. I would actually consider drafting
Henne as a backup QB if he is starting, while I would not even think about doing so with
Gabbert....so that has to mean something.
Brock Osweiler, DEN: Realistically, if you have tied your wagon to Peyton Manning, there is
no reason to believe that the untested Osweiler will match those expectations. But if there is an
opportunity for Osweiler to start, the opposing defense will give him every chance to target his
trio of stellar wideouts and make some fantasy noise. This is more a testament to his supporting
cast than to his merits alone.
Jason Campbell, CLE: Quietly, the Browns made a huge signing by snagging veteran passer
Jason Campbell. Campbell has been a solid NFL and fantasy starter in several stops, and could
be counted on to spread the field and perform well if something happens to starter Brandon
Weeden. There have been some that have said that Campbell is a better fit for the offense and
that he might even beat out Weeden to start, but I don't think that will happen. He is too valuable
coming off the bench in a tight situation, as he has proven in the past.
Nick Foles, PHI: An absolutely crucial handcuff for those with the balls to spend the pick to get
Vick this year as their fantasy starter. This is more a statement about his supporting cast and the
offensive genius that is Chip Kelly than it is a definitive belief in the young backup. I am
skeptical of Vick being able to resurrect his off-the-chart success of 2010, and he has yet to
demonstrate he can handle 16 games as a starter either -- so there is a chance Foles or even Matt
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Barkley could see some action. Realistically, either guys could put up decent fantasy numbers in
leagues that do not penalize interceptions.
Vince Young, GB: Like many solid teams, the Packers know that they are on the cusp of
breaking into a deep playoff run...so they recently invested in a proven starter to backup their
young gun. VY won many teams a fantasy championship in his early years as a starter (when he
was 31-19 and made several Pro Bowls), so we all know he is capable of fantasy gold if given
the nod. Mike McCarthy is a creative enough offensive mind to use him well should something
happen to Rodgers. In large roster leagues, I just might stash Young in the last round, even if I
don't have Rodgers as my starter.
Matt Moore, MIA: Ryan Tannehill cemented his role as starter and the sometimes-starter Matt
Moore is back in his more comfortable role as a backup. Moore could come off the pines to lead
this team adequately, and the lack of a proven running option could make them a bit more passhappy than most teams that have to go to the #2. Moore's ability to find the improved weapons
in Miami's passing attack could make him passable as a bye week fill in as needed.
Ryan Mallett, NE: Mallett now has been in the system long enough to maybe do like Matt
Cassel did in relief of Brady. Even with the depletion of the 2012 receiving crew, there is enough
talent on this offense to make Mallett a decent (although not Brady-esque) fantasy player if
called upon. Like Osweiler, this is a testament to his teammates and coaching staff more so than
an endorsement.
VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO CONTRIBUTE
Bruce Gradkowksi, CIN: Ya never know when Big Ben will do something stupid and give
Grad a chance.
Charlie Whitehurst, SD:. Been so long since he played, I almost forget how average he was.
Seneca Wallace, NO: You sir, are no Drew Brees....
Kevin Kolb, BUF: Can't even walk to the field without bad news following him.
Derek Anderson, CAR: They run too often for him to be a fantasy factor anyway.
Josh McCown, CHI: Even his detractors don't want Cutler to get hurt.
Kellen Clemens, STL: One thing in Clemens' favor
Schottenheimer from their time with the Jets.
is his familiarity with OC Brian
Brady Quinn, SEA: Fourth team in four years...gotta be a reason.
Tyrod Taylor, BAL: Paging Mr. Mark Bulger…please pick up the white courtesy phone….
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Chase Daniel, KC: best case scenario is dumping the ball off to Jamaal Charles and getting out
of the way.
Josh Johnson, CIN: Despite Freeman's unpopularity, the Bucs never turned to Johnson once.
Dominique Davis, ATL: The Falcons are not going to yank Matt and Davis has never taken a
snap.
~ end ~
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The Perfect Draft: 12-Team PPR Scoring System
August 8, 2013
by: John Cooney
Anytime the word “perfect” is mentioned visions of Green Bay Packer legendary coach Vince
Lombardi come to mind. Coach Lombardi firmly believed in doing something repeatedly until it
was “perfect”. As demanding as Coach Lombardi was with his players, he understood that
attaining perfection was more of a concept rather than an attainable goal. The championship
winning coach preached to his Green Bay Packer teams, “You’re not gonna’ get perfection, but
you’re gonna’ get excellence in the process.”
Many fantasy footballers go into every season with expectations of that “perfect” season, starting
with the perfect draft. Stats are broken down, injury situations evaluated, coaching changes are
considered, free agent signings and trades are dissected in the process of formulating that pristine
fantasy football franchise. Mock drafts have become a very popular way to gauge were a player
is likely to go off the board. ADP (average draft position) is derived from a culmination of many
mock drafts and then averaging out the round and slot where a player is taken. The ultimate goal
is to design the perfect draft plan of blue chip weapons plucked at the right time sprinkled with
that eyebrow-raising sleeper pick snatched in just the right round.
Perfection… a concept, a goal pursued with a structured plan but best attained through much
common sense. We all strive to develop the perfect draft plan and feel we go into our drafts with
the right matrix to get the job done. Then it happens! Most always within a few rounds the plan
goes into the nearest shredder and you pull out plan B… or C; or you just start the “fly by the
seat of your pants” mode. That, fantasy football friends, is the fun, attraction and excitement of
the game. Perfection may very well be unattainable, but year-in, year-out we come back for
more and give it our best shot.
What we are attempting to accomplish here is develop the best combination of performance and
value at any given position in your draft. But if we are putting together the perfect draft, then
performance can’t be the only consideration. Each draft pick has to “fit” the respective team’s
need and makeup also. We can’t just follow an ADP list and go with the BAP (best available
player). Later rounds are when handcuffs need to be considered, roster depth has to be addressed
and flexibility for near-future transactions plotted. “Value” isn’t just assumed via a player’s rank
on the ADP chart; situation and circumstance also weigh in when putting together the perfect
draft. In early rounds we can consider Average Draft Position (ADP) as a guide, but the middle
and later rounds require “feel” and intuition backed by information.
So let’s put together the Perfect PPR Draft for a 12 team league. We’ll assume the following
scoring system:
4 pts/TD pass, 6 pts/all other TDs
1 pt/20 yards passing
1 pt/10 yards rushing
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1 pt/10 yards receiving
1 pt PPR
Roster requirements for the 16-round draft we will work from, keeping things rather basic:
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D; 7 bench players of any position, NO FLEX.
Time to draft!
Round 1: (slots 1-12)
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN- The sheer volume of AP’s production makes him the top
choice in any format. He sets the table for team one to be versatile going forward.
More catches are anticipated for 2013, however. Mostly a Team 1 no-brainer, but
Doug Martin was in the running.
2. Doug Martin, TB- Muscle Hamster (he hates that!) catapults his way to the top of
the all-purpose tailbacks. Last year’s boffo numbers came behind a banged up oline; they’re healthy now. Team 2 thrilled.
3. Jamaal Charles, KC- “Chief Lightning Bolt” now has coach Andy Reid installing
a new, pass a lot offense and Charles is the center piece. A 70-80 catch year is
just around the corner. Team 3 considered Arian Foster but too much wear on
those Texan wheels.
4. LeSean McCoy, PHL- New coach, more touches. McCoy isn’t shady about
playing in coach Chip Kelly’s up-tempo, RB-centric offense. Faster snaps, more
plays, more McCoy. Team 4 likes the gamble. Still no Foster.
5. Arian Foster, HOU- Team 5 looks a gift horse in the face. True, Foster is showing
some rough edges now but he still handles the rock in all phases of the Houston
play calls. PPR is there, though the runs after the catch are getting shorter.
6. CJ Spiller, BUF- Finally a coach that is ready to let er rip with Spiller. Possibly
the NFL’s most explosive running back and now the touches to go with it. A loud
roar from the Team 6 war room.
7. Calvin Johnson, DET- Team 7 breaks the old-time running back run. Cal will be
hard-pressed to top his 2012 record-setting receiving yards, but those 5 TDs are
sure to grow; double digits.
8. Ray Rice, BAL- Team 8 shouts “Really?” The Ravens have lost a lot of quality
offensive pieces, but the main cog remains. Baltimore needs Rice more than ever;
runs, catches… whatever it takes.
9. Trent Richardson, CLV- New Browns coaching brain trust Chudzinski and Turner
are gearing Richardson up for league leading touch workloads. T-Rich’s 2012
numbers aren’t bad considering most came while playing hurt.
10. Matt Forte, CHI- If ever there was a prototype PPR halfback, Forte is in that
mold. Now saddled up with offensive stylist Marc Trestman, the focus in Chitown
is all on Forte. The call is get him the ball, and Team 10 agrees.
11. Steven Jackson, ATL- A change of address comes at just the right time in
Jackson’s career, and he lines up in just the right place. This offense was begging
for a rusher with receiving skills and SJax may be set for a late career boom.
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12. Marshawn Lynch, SEA- Team 12 allows the draft to come to them and Lynch is
the call. Not the pass catcher he once was, Lynch is all business on the ground
and a regular goal line intruder. Lynch stays motivated with a couple of young
bucks on his tail (C. Michael and Turbin).
Round 2: (reverse order, 12-1)
1. Dez Bryant, DAL- Bryant blew up in 2012 and hasn’t looked back. All news out of camp
has Bryant tearing it up and practically unstoppable. He could very well challenge Calvin
Johnson for top gun, and Team 12 goes chest bumping around the draft room.
2. Alfred Morris, WSH- The latest graduate of the Coach Shanahan late round bloomers
falls to the 2nd round ONLY because this is a PPR draft and he offers very little in the
catch column. Team 11 has Steven Jackson to take care of that.
3. AJ Green, CIN- YIKES! Team 10 benefits from the depth of this year’s talent and lands
the #1 big play threat in the pros. His 90+ catches are easily overlooked due to his scores
from out deep.
4. Brandon Marshall, CHI- PPR and Marshall go hand-in-hand. Jay Cutler’s top target is an
easy add for Team 9.
5. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ- Remember when Fitz was the 1st or 2nd WR off the board. With
Coach Arians calling the shots and Carson Palmer tossing the shots, Fitzgerald is BACK!
6. Chris Johnson, TEN- Team 7 loads up on the Johnsons, already having Calvin on board.
The Titan playmaker may lose out on goal liners with Shonn Greene around, but he is the
pass receiving factor in the Tennessee backfield. The speed is still there to break it open
at any time.
7. Demaryius Thomas, DEN- Sure Eric Decker AND Wes Welker are there, but Thomas is
the #1 target of prolific passer Peyton Manning. Decker has to share HIS with Welker;
Thomas keeps what he earned last season.
8. Stevan Ridley, NE- Team 5 is taking what the league gives, pairing TD-banger Ridley
with the top TD rusher of the past couple of seasons (Foster). A powerful start for Team
5.
9. Darren Sproles, NO- While Sproles is all about PPR action; this is a bit of a gamble for
Team 4. Coach Payton is talking a bigger run game for 2013 and Sproles may lose some
of those passing down opportunities. But it is PPR, and the mighty mite catches 65 in a
bad year.
10. Reggie Bush, DET- Bush heads over to the Motor City and back to a pass-first offense.
His carries will drop, but on a team that puts the ball up 700+ times, 70-80 catches is
there for the asking.
11. Julio Jones, ATL- Team 2 is high-fiving all over the place here. Jones is the perfect bigplay, young, explosive deep threat that has the look of making the league his own.
12. Jimmy Graham, NO- Graham has been essentially the Saints top receiver the past 2
seasons. In a PPR league requiring a TE, Graham creates incredible positional separation
from the rest of the competition. Team 1 can deal with this luxury here, having the very
next pick in round 3.
Round 3: (slot 1-12)
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1. Roddy White, ATL- White is the epitome of a PPR wideout, capable of 90+ catches.
White adds PPR value to roster that started slow in that area with Adrian Peterson.
2. Randall Cobb, GB- Team 2 adds the prototype PPR receiver in Cobb, balancing out the
big fly potential of Julio Jones. Good blending of explosive scoring and steady pointgetting.
3. Andre Johnson, HOU- Having secured a dynamic PPR backfield of Charles and Bush,
Team 3 brings aboard a 100-catch wideout. Even with a 10% drop Johnson brings 90catch potential.
4. Victor Cruz, NYG- Cruz is a fine package of durability, high volume targets and yards
after catch skill. Team 4 nailed the Giants best wideout as a WR1.
5. Vincent Jackson, TB- The Bucs are working hard on expanding VJax’s route tree, setting
the deep threat all over the formation, including slot. Known more as a long-baller,
Jackson is gaining a PPR value in Tampa Bay.
6. Lamar Miller, MIA- Miller has breakout written all over him in Miami and Team 6 was
sharp in making Miller a solid complement to playmaker CJ Spiller. Miller is a fine pass
catcher.
7. Darren McFadden, OAK- Landing a quality tailback like DMC in the 3rd round, and as a
RB2 for Team 7, is working a perfect draft. Team 7 fields a high risk/reward backfield,
complete with speed and good hands out of the backfield.
8. Aaron Rodgers, GB- Team 8 breaks the QB drought with Rodgers. Rodgers is the best
value move here, adding pizzazz to a fairly steady roster needing a little zest.
9. Drew Brees, NO- Mini QB run here. Team 9 follows up with Brees. Like Team 8, Team
9 adds some spicy point production via Brees and that is a solid balancing act for
Richardson and Marshall.
10. Danny Amendola, NE- Did Team 10 just haul in serious PPR points with Amendola? So
far in camp Amendola IS Wes Welker in a bigger, faster (and more fragile) package. A
big roll of the dice on several fronts for Team 10, but at the right time.
11. Dwayne Bowe, KC- Some around the room are raising that one eye-brow and trying to
hide that snicker. There is a lot of good things happening in KC, and Bowe is positioned
to have a career season. A stellar Strength Of Schedule (SOS) versus the pass makes
Bowe even more appealing here.
12. Jordy Nelson, GB- Yes, Nelson is rehabbing after recent knee surgery, but he is set to
return by week 2 at the latest. Team 12 just needs Nelson to be a solid WR2 upon his
return. Big plays and lots of targets are enticing.
1. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX- Carrying mostly a 2nd round ADP, MJD drops to the 4th due
to lingering questions about his balky foot, conditioning and the burden of many touches
the past 4 seasons. However, recent news has MJD feeling fit and ready to go; a welleducated gamble for Team 12.
2. Rob Gronkowski, NE- Obviously another injury risk, but clearly the 2nd best TE on the
board, a PPR gem and a solid value in a league employing the TE.
3. DeMarco Murray, DAL- Sure, he’s a talented pass-catching back with injury concerns;
most running backs are injury concerns. Team 10 takes what the board offers, a playmaking RB2 with 50-60 catch potential.
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4. Eric Decker, DEN- OK, Team 9 reaches a bit for the WR2 on the roster. But Decker is a
6’3 comfort target for QB Peyton Manning and the #1 redzone bulls eye for his QB. The
Welker factor… can’t worry about that when this kind of talent in a pass-rich offense is
just sitting there.
5. Frank Gore, SF- The warhorse 49er back isn’t swinging out of the backfield much these
days, but he still runs effectively, with power and is a goal line regular. A fine
complement to the PPR king, Ray Rice.
6. Wes Welker, DEN- Team 7 probably passes on Welker if Cal Johnson wasn’t on the
roster. Welker’s present value is that of a low WR2-high WR3, but rockets to top 7 status
should either Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker miss time (which they both have the
past few seasons).
7. Peyton Manning, DEN- 3 of the last 4 picks are Broncos; it’s that offense! If Denver can
send 3 wideouts to fantasy rosters in the first 4 rounds, then the QB HAS to be a hot
commodity. Manning’s pass SOS is spectacular; a stud 4th round move by Team 6.
8. Reggie Wayne, IND- When drawing up the PPR WR blueprint, you get Reggie Wayne.
Wayne topped 100 catches last season and has the potential to do it again with a new
offensive scheme in place. Wayne is a solid PPR WR2 to Team 5’s Vincent Jackson.
9. Marques Colston, NO- Colston is the poster boy for consistency and WR2, in any format.
10. Pierre Garcon, WSH- Team 3 takes a shot but gets the man they wanted. Garcon, when
healthy, is a beast with the football in his hands and a proven big play producer. Clearly
the WR1 in DC, Team 3 knows you have to take progressive steps to win.
11. David Wilson, NYG- Like his playing style, Wilson is a hit big or miss big selection. On
good days Team 2 knows the backfield of Wilson and Doug Martin will be unbeatable.
On bad days, it’s all Martin and not much else.
12. Hakeem Nicks, NYG- Nicks is at times spectacular, capable of huge games… when
healthy. Team 1 has weekly PPR producer Roddy White in the fold, and it is sound
strategy to go for broke with the WR2.
1. LeVeon Bell, PIT- The Steelers are desperately searching for a bell-cow rusher, and feel
Bell is the ringer. He’s not explosive, but is steady, sound with the football and a solid
pass catcher. Team 1 has Adrian Peterson at RB1, so taking a shot on an unproven back
with all-around skills (not speed however) is the way to go.
2. Jason Witten, DAL- When it comes to pure PPR tight ends, Witten is at worst a 1B. More
TD production would take his fantasy game to a whole new level; he’s been busy in
camp working the green zone (inside the 10).
3. Matt Ryan, ATL- Now a member of the 4000 yard club, Ryan is a plug-n-play weekly
passer for Team 3. Setting the starting lineup is almost complete for this franchise in the
first 5 rounds.
4. Shane Vereen, NE- Team 4 grabs 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds. Vereen has huge PPR
potential in 2013, as the Pats gutted the WR corps and have major issues at TE. Vereen
has WR-like hands and is a high-end hedge against a LeSean McCoy mishap.
5. Vernon Davis, SF- Davis is seeing loads of reps at WR spots so far in camp. The ‘Niner
receivers are Anquan Boldin and guys name Joe… Davis has big-time potential in 2013.
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6. Antonio Brown, PIT- Team 6 builds its YAC receiver corps, with Demaryius Thomas
and now Antonio Brown. Brown is in the departed Mike Wallace role, but brings a more
complete route tree and offers slightly better PPR value than Wallace.
7. Jared Cook, STL- WHAT! Team 7 must be whacked! Not really; Team 7 is in the know.
Cook is being utilized NOT as a traditional TE in St. Louis, but as a next man up for
Danny Amendola. Cook has 4.5 speed and is logging major reps in the Amendola role, in
the slot. This is a big time roll of the dice for Team 7, but could pay off in spades.
8. Mike Wallace, MIA- Ironic that Wallace comes off the board AFTER his Steeler
successor, Antonio Brown. Wallace is being force-fed targets in camp while the Dolphin
coaches expand his routes run. He makes a solid big play fit to ultra-productive Larry
Fitzgerald’s possession-like efforts.
9. Montee Ball, DEN- Team 9 is figuring the rookie back will see the rock often in the
redzone, given the Broncos high-powered attack. Ball becomes the RB2 of a young Team
9 backfield (Trent Richardson).
10. Cam Newton, CAR- Newton in a lineup is like adding a half a running back. It’s a solid
selection by Team 10, with two fragile RBs already chosen (Matt Forte and DeMarco
Murray).
11. Torrey Smith, BAL- Smith is one of those risk/reward receivers in that he can score via
the big play or at times disappear. The Raven offense NEEDS Smith this season more
than ever, and his work ethic and desire to improve is what Team 11 is counting on.
12. Steve Smith, CAR- Though he is aging, Smith is as nasty and combative as ever. He still
gets wide open and is the clear WR1 in Carolina, blessed with a cannon-armed passer.
Isaac Redman might be a steal in the 5th round as he is being coached as a 3-down back and runs
behind an improved o-line. Gore and McGahee are value choices at 5. All teams are meeting
needs at doing it timely thus far.
1. Tom Brady, NE- This wasn’t happening last year as Brady and other top passers went
early in the 2012 draft. Team 12 completes the starting 6 with the veteran fantasy star
QB… OUTSTANDING!
2. Anquan Boldin, SF- Team 11 reunited Boldin with Torrey Smith (2012 Raven
teammates). Boldin is looking like a bona fide PPR star as he gels with dynamic passer
Colin Kaepernick, and the 49er receiving unit being quite thin.
3. Cecil Shorts III- Shorts III plays a lot like his fellow Mount Union alum, Pierre Garcon.
Nix that, he is actually a more accomplished and polished receiver and a YAC monster.
The Jags’ passing game may be limited, but Shorts is the main aerial weapon there and an
outstanding WR3 for Team 10.
4. Giovani Bernard, CIN- Already slated for half the carries in Cincy, Bernard IS the
passing attack from the Bengal backfield. Cincinnati is bringing a loaded offense to the
field in 2013 and Bernard has FLEX-appeal and the potential to be a 14-18 touch back
right away. Solid RB3.
5. Tony Gonzalez, ATL- PPR… tight end… Gonzalez… it all goes together. Back for one
last hurrah, Gonzo is in a “perfect” offense and makes a perfect PPR round 6 pick.
6. Matt Stafford, DET- What a difference a year makes! Team 7’s war room erupts as they
bring home a potential 5000 yard passer with 30+ TD chops.
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7. Eddie Lacy, GB- Lacy is chipping away at the backfield logjam and seeing the light of
first team RB. Big and burly, Lacy doesn’t offer much in PPR value, but can be a goal
line surprise if the Packer offense continues to roll as in the past.
8. James Jones, GB- The stars are aligning for the FORMER WR3 in Green Bay.
Ballyhooed Randall Cobb is banged up (can he survive the brutality of the NFL slot?)
and flashy Jordy Nelson is rehabbing from recent knee surgery. Suddenly Jones is a WR1
for Aaron Rodgers, and now has some gravitas after leading the NFL in TD catches last
season. Stellar WR3 for Team 5.
9. Tony Romo, DAL- Romo may annoy Cowboy fans, but he thrills his fantasy football
owners. Team 4 smartly waits for a QB and is rewarded with a 4500-30 TD passer.
10. Greg Jennings, MIN- Getting a team’s WR1 as a FFB WR3 is fine draft card-poker by
Team 3. Jennings needs to stay on the field, but well worth the gamble as the third
wideout.
11. Robert Griffin III- The name of the game in 2013 is QB Poker… hold onto your QB
cards and play a big hand late. RGIII appears to be a go for week 1, and Team 2 may
look like geniuses come week 16.
12. Ryan Mathews, SD- Wasn’t he a first rounder just last season? Team 1 starts to establish
a solid bench with the multi-talented but iffy efforted Mathews.
Ben Tate becomes the draft’s first handcuff, and it is not a reach at 7. He’s that good and Forster
owners MUST make it happen. Tennessee’s WR Nate Washington looks like a reach in the 7th,
but not often one can get a 70-1000 receiver this late.
1. Andrew Luck, IND- Team 1 took to playing QB Poker and cashed in their chips for some
Luck… Andrew Luck. Now back to a familiar offense with college OC Pep Hamilton,
Luck will improve on his sharp rookie numbers.
2. DeSean Jackson, PHL- DJax is starring in the Chip Kelly training camp. Now motivated
and excited about his 2013 prospects, Jackson offers low true PPR value but is
microwave fantasy points.
3. Chris Ivory, NYJ- ADP had Ivory going higher, nut Team 3 waits it out and nabs the Jets
RB1 in round 7. Ivory is an injury risk, but one that can be taken as Team 3’s RB3.
4. TY Hilton, IND- Team 4 must have a grapevine to Indy training camp as Hilton has been
outplaying free agent Darrius Heyward-Bey by a mile. Hilton has developed a serious
connection with QB Luck, and Team 4 is banking on a big year 2 jump, with Hilton as a
fantasy WR3.
5. Colin Kaepernick, SF- With a better receiving unit there’s no way Kaep falls this low.
Coach Harbaugh is confident his well-armed and dangerous QB will outshine the lack of
receiving talent. Team 8 likes the upside here in the 7th round.
6. Tavon Austin, STL- The rookie with the explosive skill set “fell” to the 7th, a couple of
rounds below the ADP ranks. Austin is a do-it-all big play machine, but his size may
scare some drafters off. If selected as a WR3, that is OTSTANDING!
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7. Steve Johnson, BUF- The Bills veteran receiver might be even better as a fantasy
producer with more consistent hands. He does get the targets and is the one wideout the
Bills QBs can rely on. A sharp WR3 grab in round 7.
8. Rashard Mendenhall, ARZ- Another one of those former 1st round daisies of recent past
drafts. Mendenhall is healthy but plies his trade behind a poor o-line and in a pass-first
program. However, Mendy faces a very advantageous run-SOS and should be a fine bye
week stand-in.
9. Miles Austin, DAL- Austin is the forgotten man in the Cowboy passing game, as far as
fantasy players go. If his fragile hammys behave, Team 9 just nailed a stud of a WR3.
10. DeAngelo Williams, CAR- Yes he is 30 this season, but the miles on those wheels are
quite low; the talent is showroom sharp, however. Williams may be the show in the
Panther backfield this season as Jonathan Stewart still battles ankle issues. The schedule
is attractive, and Williams as a RB3 is a great buy.
11. Andre Brown, NYG- You know what? This is supposed to be David Wilson’s “team”.
Listen to the coaches… it’s not. Brown is trusted with the football when it counts, and a
50/50 split with goal line work makes a solid RB3 for Team 11.
12. Ahmad Bradshaw, IND- If only those feet would cooperate. Bradshaw seems to be in a
share-time with Vick Ballard, but in a true WCO the former Giant can excel when
opportunity presents itself. Good roll of the dice as a RB3.
1. Kyle Rudolph, MIN- When you can’t secure the top PPR tight ends, best to tag one that
is going to break the stripe for 6. Rudolph is a redzone demon and Team 12’s top TE.
2. Russell Wilson, SEA- Team 11 may have played the QB Poker hand a bit long, but
Wilson showed he may be ready to expand his passing game. His mobility and potential
for added rushing scores makes him a solid late round QB1.
3. Greg Olsen, CAR- The Panthers’ search for a solid WR2 opposite Steve Smith always
comes up short. Olsen, by default, fills that role and is a fine PPR TE.
4. Mike Williams, TB- Team 9 doubles up on the WR3 spot, hedging the bet on Miles
Austin’s troublesome hamstrings with the rock solid work of Williams. 65 catches and a
chance for 10 TDs is a nice WR3 in round 8.
5. Kenny Britt, TEN- Britt has had the quietest off-season as a pro, and that’s good. Team 8
gambles that he’ll reach his immense potential this season and star from the WR3 spot on
this roster.
6. Danny Woodhead, SD- The Chargers were quick to get Woodhead inked once he hit the
open market. Now a part of a true RBBC, Woodhead’s value is solid in a PPR setting.
7. Antonio Gates, SD- Team 6 needs a TE and announces the aging Gates as the guy. Gates
is having a good camp and this season plays in a shorter passing scheme; TE friendly,
gang.
8. Ben Tate, HOU- Have Foster? Must nail Tate as the handcuff. Foster is missing all of
training camp thus far and Tate has shown RB1 chops when handed the rock.
9. Bryce Brown, PHL- Looks like the fantasy cops are out in this round, as another handcuff
is performed. Brown is currently Shady McCoy’s understudy, but he has true FLEX
value too. Coach Kelly’s offense is RB centric; plenty of plays to go around.
10. Emmanuel Sanders, PIT- A terrific WR4 for Team 3. Sanders starts opposite Antonio
Brown and is getting reps as a redzoner.
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11. Vick Ballard, IND- At worst Team 2 gets a RB3 in a share-time program. However,
Ballard shares those snaps with Ahmad Bradshaw, he of the angry feet. Could be a round
8 steal.
12. Golden Tate, SEA- Tate has a golden opportunity (sorry, couldn’t resist) to break out this
year. Big name Percy Harvin may never see the field this season and Tate’s game fits
right in with the playbook designed for Harvin. Tate is a YAC attacker, and a risky WR3
play here.
1. Daryl Richardson, STL- The former 6th rounder is a PPR friendly fill in. He’s in a full
blown RBBC, but not a big worry as a fantasy RB4 for Team 1.
2. Ronnie Hillman, DEN- Hillman is actually running as Denver’s top back on the depth
charts so far. He is the pass catching end of the young Bronco backfield.
3. Fred Davis, WSH- Team 3 laid low on the tight end situation, having Davis in the cross
hairs for this spot. Davis is running pain-free and it has to be pointed out, he’s running
the Shannon Sharpe routes in Coach Shanahan’s playbook… just sayin!
4. Alshon Jeffery, CHI- Jeffery has locked up the WR2 job in Chicago and is having a solid
camp. A nice WR4 here with potential in a more aggressive passing scheme.
5. Mark Ingram, NO- Fantasy owners are missing the boat on Ingram this year. I know
we’ve heard it all before, but his camp work and Coach Payton’s promise of a run game
needs to be taken seriously this season. Team 5 scores a solid here.
6. Fred Jackson, BUF- Purely a CJ Spiller cuff here, but a smart move in this round.
7. Isaiah Pead, STL- Probably the best all-around young RB in the rams RBBC, and Team
7’s RB4.
8. Bernard Pierce, BAL- If this weren’t a PPR league Pierce is taken much earlier. Ray Rice
owners… cuff this guy!
9. Jemichael Finley, GB- The perennial tease again looks like a breakout player in camp.
Team 9 gives him a go one more time at the TE1.
10. Vincent Brown, SD- Brown may very well lead the Chargers in catches, and that is PPR
music to an owners ears. Quality WR 4 in round 9.
11. Eli Manning, NYG- Team 11 goes right back to the QB well, backing up Russell Wilson
with a reliable Eli Manning.
12. Benjarvus Green-Ellis, CIN- BJGE has little to no PPR value, but he is a banger at the
goal line. In a bye week void, TDs come in big.
1. Lance Moore, NO- The Saints WR corps is suddenly paper thin; Moore is a Brees
favorite and his redzone wideout of choice.
2. Pierre Thomas, NO- Saints do-it-all tailback and Team 11’s RB4.
3. Michael Floyd, ARZ- Can’t stress it enough that Coach Arians makes Floyd a possible
fantasy star THIS SEASON. As a round 10 grab… OUTSTANDING! Falls here due to
PPR concerns.
4. Jay Cutler, CHI- Now in a “show me” season, Cutler has the weapons and the offensive
coach to be a fantasy factor again. Here he’s a QB2.
5. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU- Lighting up camp and finally a solid WR2 in Houston. Round
10 WR4 that could surprise.
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6. Kendall Wright, TEN- Gathered 60+ catches in his rookie season last year. PPR may
drop but bigger plays downfield are expected.
7. Ryan Broyles, DET- An injury risk, but could become a glue-fingered slot machine in the
Lions pass-all offense. WR4 for Team 6.
8. Justin Blackmon, JAX- Someone had to take the shot on the Jags former 1st rounder.
After his suspension Blackmon could shine. Here he’s a fine WR4 gamble.
9. Carson Palmer, ARZ- In some mock drafts this long baller isn’t even drafted. A true fit
for Coach Arians downfield approach, and a solid bye week stand-in for Romo.
10. Seahawks DST- Ah, the first team defense/special teams comes off the board. Seattle’s
aggressive style creates turnovers and defensive scores. Team 3 looks to separate some
points from the opposition here.
11. Aaron Dobson, NE- A round 10 upside pick who is a highlight maker.
12. Josh Gordon, CLV- Having back-to-back picks, Team 1 can chance it with the very
talented Gordon. Starts the year suspended, or would have gone many rounds earlier.
1. Brian Hartline, MIA- Hartline is catching everything in camp and seems to click with QB
Tannehill.
2. Andy Dalton, CIN- Solid QB2 in a high powered offense.
3. Joseph Randle, DAL- Rookie with PPR skills; needs a Demarco Murray injury for
touches (probable).
4. Coby Fleener, IND- Major potential reuniting with his college OC. Team 4 is feeling it
here.
5. Josh Freeman, TB- For all his warts Freeman is now a 4000 yard passer with 25+ TD
expectations.
6. Chris Givens, STL- The fleet Rams’ WR drops to the 11th round due to PPR limitations;
big plays but needs more receptions to move up a round or two.
7. 49ers DST- Time to start thinking defense and specialists.
8. LaMichael James, SF- A “look ahead” handcuff to Frank Gore, bypassing Kendall
Hunter.
9. Johnathan Franklin, GB- Packer rookie gains some value in PPR formats due to excellent
pass game skills.
10. Michael Bush, CHI- Matt Forte’s wrist jewelry.
11. Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL- Steven Jackson’s #2 man.
12. Bears DST- The defense always makes things happen and there’s that Hester guy.
1. Robert Turbin, SEA- Marshawn Lynch’s handcuff; keep an eye on rookie Christine
Michael.
2. Sidney Rice, SEA- Still has those gimpy knees, but is a redzone threat and a good bye
week option.
3. Mike Vick, PHL- Team 10 takes a shot on Vick as QB2. Could pay off down the road.
4. Patriots DST- Always a threat for turnovers and the team added return specialist Leon
Washington.
5. Denarius Moore, OAK- WR5 depth.
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6. Philip Rivers, SD- Big changes in SD, but may help Rivers be more productive. Faster
passing game restores productivity here.
7. Alex Smith, KC- Team 6 just played a big hand; Smith has QB1 potential in Coach
Reid’s playbook.
8. Dexter McCluster, KC- Coach Reid has the Dex all over the field and running short,
deep, outside, inside. PPR sneaky star in the making.
9. Bengals DST- A nasty unit that gets after the QB.
10. Malcom Floyd, SD- Don’t look now but SD has Floyd and Brown and… . Floyd is now
de facto WR1 for the Chargers with yet another Danario Alexander’s knee injury.
11. Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN- A bigger version of Percy Harvin. Needs polish but the
rookie is explosive.
12. Sam Bradford, STL- All the parts are there now. Check out his week 14-16 pass SOS…
nice!
1. Broncos DST- Aggressive pass rush and a breakaway returner in Trindon Holliday.
2. Matt Bryant, ATL- Kicker run? Big offense and a dome… nuff said!
3. Rueben Randle, NYG- A Hakeem Nicks boo-boo away from WR1-B status.
4. Greg Little, CLV- Quietly improved his hands and the Browns most reliable wideout.
5. Steelers DST- Coach Tomlin is angry and the revamped defense will be hot.
6. Cardinals DST- Talent throughout the unit and a secondary that may surprise with big
plays this season.
7. Stephen Gostkowski, NE- Always a top 5 point producer.
8. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT- Not a bad way to back up Aaron Rodgers.
9. Knowshon Moreno, DEN- The Montee Ball third level handcuff; some PPR value.
10. Blair Walsh, MIN- A booming leg kicking in a dome… gimme!
11. Packers DST- Aggressive but flawed defense that sees chances to make plays.
12. Matt Prater, DEN- Consistent kicker in an explosive O.
1. Mohamed Sanu, CIN- Not a big PPR guy but can chip in on bye weeks with redzone
action.
2. Rob Housler, ARZ- Viewed as a big wideout by Coach Arians. TE2 with great upside.
3. Tyler Eifert, CIN- Has already been given specific plays in the Bengal playbook. Great
route runner and hands and Team 10 is gambling on him as TE1.
4. Greg Zuerlein, STL- Another booming toe in a dome and supporting an offense on the
come.
5. Phil Dawson, SF- Years of toil in Cleveland pays off as a top point getter in SF.
6. Owen Daniels, HOU- Steady TE2 behind Team 7’s Jared Cook.
7. Dan Bailey, DAL- Cowboys can move the football but stall a bit within Bailey’s range.
8. Garrett Hartley, NO- Saints O may stumble more than usual this season, with Hartley
closing out more drives. Dome kicker; gotta love ‘em.
9. Shonn Greene, TEN- PPR and Greene just do not agree, but he is a goal line threat in a
bye week situation.
10. Joique Bell, DET- Team 3 eschewed Mikal Leshoure as Reggie Bush’s handcuff, opting
for Bell.
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11. Dolphins DST- underrated squad with a terrific kick/punt returner in Marcus Thigpen.
Great call Team 2!
12. Adam Vinatieri, IND- You got it… dome kicker on an improving offense.
1. Toby Gerhart, MIN- Team 1 does the obvious; AP’s cuff.
2. Michael Smith, TB- Smith is a burner of a RB who will see plenty of touches in place of
Doug Martin if…
3. Randy Bullock, HOU- Texan booters always score and …dome!
4. Alex Henry, PHL- Eagles will move the football but hiccups in the redzone lead to lots of
Henry kicks.
5. Bilal Powell, NYJ- Powell isn’t special in any way, but he runs hard, catches the football
well and is next man up behind injury prone Chris Ivory.
6. Jordan Cameron, CLV- Team 6 backs up Gates with a young up-comer.
7. Riley Cooper, PHL- Forget his poor choice of words, Cooper is the only big target on the
Eagles and now has something to prove.
8. Rams DST- Serious D-line aggression and an underrated LB corps. Tavon Austin doing
the returns… oh my!
9. Dustin Keller, MIA- Might be big in Miami; seeing a lot of redzone action in camp… A
LOT!
10. Ravens DST- Now younger and the Ravens coaches always find a way to field a solid
bunch. Jacoby Jones is a stellar returner.
11. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK- Seabass IS the Raider offense some weeks. Still a potent big
leg.
12. Matt Schaub, HOU- Brady/Schaub QB stable is comforting for Team 12.
1. Brandon Myers, NYG- Kyle Rudolph’s bye week filler.
2. Marvin Jones, CIN- Gets the AJ Green routes if Green is out; excellent roster stash.
3. Roy Helu, WSH- Should have been Team 11’s cuff to Morris. May be PPR worthy right
away.
4. Rod Streater, OAK- proving more consistent that more touted teammate Moore. 50+
catches as a rookie last year… nice stash.
5. Zach Sudfield, NE- Round 16 is made for upside; Sudfield is in the right place at the
right time.
6. Marcel Reece, OAK- Converted wideout is all PPR, and a viable handcuff for McFadden.
7. Daniel Thomas, MIA- He’s a camp watch for Team 6; rookie Mike Gillislee is on the
radar here too as a cuff to Lamar Miller.
8. Martellus Bennett, CHI- Strictly a Vernon Davis cuff and bye week sub.
9. Brandon Pettigrew, DET- Solid PPR TE but not much else after the catch. TE2 here.
10. Joe Flacco, BAL- Loss of weapons has hurt his fantasy value in a big way. QB2 at best.
11. James Casey, PHL- Darkhorse fantasy player but has the eye of Coach Kelly. Versatility
may pay off.
12. Chris Polk, PHl- Polk is putting the pressure on Bryce Brown in camp and is a full level
above Brown as a pass receiver; a Chip Kelly must.
.
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2013 seems to be a “return to the future” type season. Last year quarterbacks were breaking 5000
yards passing and 40 TDs, and the QB fantasy football inventory was light. Grabbing a passer
early in the 2012 draft process was the way to go… or so it seemed. The infusion of truly
talented and dynamic quarterbacks during the ’12 season has stocked the 2013 pool with plenty
of quality choices. In just one season the fantasy landscape has shifted from early QB acquisition
to playing QB Poker, holding your draft cards and knowing when to play them later in the draft.
With the advancement of the passing game in the pros, the wide receiver position also has
morphed into a deep reservoir of pass catchers. Gang! It’s back to running backs in the early
rounds again. The feature back that carries he rock 20-25 times a game is almost extinct.
Winning fantasy football owners are ignoring “carries” and paying attention to TOUCHES as a
determining factor in evaluating prospective backfield fantasy stars this year. The feature back
now handles the football 15-10 times a game in a variety of ways; handoffs, tosses, screens,
circle routes and down field deep routes. These new-fangled tailbacks get more with less. Those
kinds of backs are becoming plentiful, but not as deep as the QBs and WRs. Gotta go RB early
this year.
Handcuffing is a must, but some thought needs to go into that process. Next man up works in
most cases, such as the Arian Foster-Ben Tate dynamic, but often a smart fantasy owner will
look three-deep to cuff his starter, be it RB or WR. LeSean McCoy is popularly cuffed with
Bryce Brown, but in Coach Kelly’s eyes Brown is a potential headache and little known Chris
Polk actually is threatening Brown’s cuffability. The Bengals AJ Green is linked most often to
second season WR Mohamed Sanu. However Marvin Jones is the smarter draft pick for Green
owners as HE would be the player that jumps into Green’s routes, AND he can run them quite
well.
These are just a couple of examples where the perfect draft doesn’t exactly follow ADP, or
expert rankings or TV/radio talking head advice. Today, to put together the perfect draft it seems
one needs an advanced scout to break down game tape, follow training camps and translate it all
into fantasy football relevance.
Hey! That’s what we do here at Fantasy Football Mastermind!
With that, below is a matrix of the Perfect Draft for a 12 team PPR league. We can get a good
look at each team’s configuration and judge just how “perfect” each team is.
Have fun!
QUARTERBACKS = PEWTER
RUNNING BACKS = BLUE
WIDE RECEIVERS = GREEN
TIGHT ENDS = RED
KICKERS = PURPLE
DEF/ST = BLACK
RD1→
RD2←
TEAM 1
Peterson
Graham
TEAM 2
Martin
Jul Jones
TEAM 3
Charles
R Bush
TEAM 4
McCoy
Sproles
TEAM 5
Foster
Ridley
TEAM 6
Spiller
D Thomas
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RD3→
RD4←
RD5→
RD6←
RD7→
RD8←
RD9→
R White
Nicks
L Bell
Mathews
Luck
G Tate
D
Richardson
Gordon
Cobb
D Wilson
Witten
Griffin3
D Jackson
Ballard
Hillman
A Johnson
Garcon
Ryan
Jennings
Ivory
E Sanders
F Davis
Cruz
Colston
Vereen
Romo
Hilton
B Brown
Jeffery
V Jackson
Wayne
V Davis
Jm Jones
Kaepernick
B Tate
Ingram
L Miller
P Manning
A Brown
Lacy
T Austin
Gates
F Jackson
Dobson
Seahawks
Palmer
Blackmon
Broyles
Hartline
Dalton
J Randle
Fleener
Freeman
Givens
Bradford
Patterson
Mal Floyd
Bengals
McCluster
A Smith
Broncos
M Bryant
R Randle
Little
Steelers
Cardinals
Vinatieri
Dolphins
J Bell
S Greene
Hartley
Bailey
Gerhart
Mk Smith
Bullock
Henry
B Powell
Cameron
Polk
Casey
Flacco
Pettigrew
M Bennett
D Thomas
TEAM 8
R Rice
Fitzgerald
TEAM 9
Richardson
Marshall
TEAM 10
Forte
AJ Green
TEAM 11
S Jackson
Morris
TEAM 12
Lynch
D Bryant
RD3→
TEAM 7
Cal Johnson
Chr
Johnson
McFadden
A Rodgers
Brees
Bowe
Nelson
RD4←
Welker
Gore
Decker
Amendol
a
D Murray
RD5→
RD6←
RD7→
RD8←
Cook
Stafford
S Johnson
Woodhead
Wallace
Gonzalez
Mendenhall
Britt
Newton
Shorts
JonesDrew
S Smith
Olsen
RD9→
RD10
←
RD11
→
RD12
←
RD13
→
RD14
←
RD15
→
RD16
←
Pead
K Wright
Pierce
Hopkins
M Ball
Bernard
M Austin
Mk
Williams
Finley
Cutler
Gronkowsk
i
T Smith
Boldin
A Brown
R Wilson
V Brown
Mk Floyd
E Manning
P Thomas
Green-Ellis
L Moore
49ers
L James
Franklin
M Bush
J Rodgers
Bears
Rivers
D Moore
Patriots
Vick
S Rice
Turbin
Gostkowski
Moreno
Walsh
Packers
Prater
Daniels
Roethlisberge
r
Dawson
Zuerlein
Eifert
Housler
Sanu
R Cooper
Rams
Keller
Ravens
Janikowski
Schaub
Reece
Sudfield
Streater
Helu
Marv Jones
Myers
RD10
←
RD11
→
RD12
←
RD13
→
RD14
←
RD15
→
RD16
←
RD1→
RD2←
D Williams
Brady
Bradshaw
Rudolph
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~ end ~
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Gimps & Geezers
Your Ticket to a Superior Draft - Picking the Guys No One Else Wants
August 13, 2013
by: Eddie Rex
First 50 picks, that's BORING. Everyone picks the same guys over and over again -- oh surprise
surprise, Arian Foster was a high pick! Again!
You can pretty much guess who goes in the top four or five rounds. And the first three rounds
are a friggin' lock.
The only real fun in the opening rounds come because everyone has their pet players -- oh lordy,
did someone really just take Jimmy Graham in the first round? Seriously? The only surprises are
in what order those first 50 players go.
So forget those guys. The real test of fantasy knowledge comes after those 50 players are gone.
That's where the fantasy football sausage is made, and sometimes it's ugly, what makes up that
sausage, and you may not want to see it.
So I'm here to help, to add a little headcheese onto the fantasy football menu.
Why You Need Offal in Your FF Diet
Yeah offal, it's what you call the guts and brains and thrown-away stuff in animals, and it's
pronounced "awful."
Like the guys I'm about to recommend.
Let me just say, though, the gimps, prima donnas and losers I picked last year helped me get the
best regular-season record in my favorite league (damn you, playoffs!).
Last year it was Reggie Wayne in round 7 who made the biggest difference to my team.
Basically that's a free stud WR. And NO ONE wanted him. The year before, it was Steve Smith.
When I hear phrases like "washed up," "coming off an injury, I don't know if he can still play" or
"he's too old," that's when I start salivating.
If you want consistency and points you can count on every week, don't forget the old and infirm.
They may not wear the golden crown of "upside," but their downside is pretty damned good. Me,
I could use points every week, rather than potential points.
Five Faces on Mt. Gimpy-and-Elderly-More
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So here are five guys who might doze off during a meal, or who might lose a limb or two on the
field, but can give you consistent fantasy points. And the important part, you can get them in
later rounds, at minimal risk in your draft.
On to the show -- your five nominees for Best Gimpy Old Guy go to:
Number 5:
Anquan Boldin
I picked Anquan Boldin in my first fantasy football draft. That was … around 1979, I think. If I
remember right, he was my pick right after Natrone Means. Or was it Bam Morris?
Anyway, if I draft Boldin this time, it'll be the first time ever that I've picked someone older than
me.
OK, so it only feels like Boldin was one of the founding members of the NFL on the Chicago
Knickerbockers or whatever, really he's only 32 years old.
Which is young if you're CEO of your own company, but yeah, not so young if you're an NFL
wideout. Let's just say, to put it politely, he's not exactly a whippet anymore. As long as we're
talking canine here, I would estimate he's about 200 years old if we're talking dog years. Even
craggy oldsters like Steven Jackson and Michael Turner are younger than him.
That's the good news. At least, for you, it's good news. Being old and in the way means that,
despite consistently strong production at WR for 10 straight years -- averaging over 1,000 yards
a year -- Anquan Boldin can be had for an off-key song toward the end of the draft.
I mean, who wants some old guy the 49ers picked up for a sixth-round draft pick?
I do. That's me, in the back of the draft room, waving my hand like a maniac. I want him.
Colin Kaepernick will be flinging the ball all over the field, and that means opportunity for
Boldin. With Michael Crabtree out to start the season, Boldin is the number one wideout.
You think A.J. Jenkins is suddenly going to learn how to catch the ball? The other WRs on this
team are guys like Chad Hall and Kaseem Osgood (who, btw, is actually OLDER than Boldin, if
that's possible). Vernon Davis is a great tight end, but not a possession TE, he's more of a
downfield guy. Boldin will get a TON of receptions.
That means, especially in a PPR league, Boldin will be money. And in the 8th or 9th round of the
draft? That's found money.
Numero Four-o:
Sidney Rice
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Ouch. Did I just say the "Sid" word? It physically pains me to say this guy's name.
Every year I pick this guy. Every year he goes down with a sprained collateral pinkie nail.
Of course, he's amazing when he plays. With Percy Harvin possibly out (who ranks second, btw,
behind Sidney Rice on the All-Time "Listed as Questionable This Week" List), that would mean
the talented Mr. Russell Wilson will be throwing the deep ball to our man Rice.
No WAY this guy costs you anything more than a what-the-hell pick. And here's the strategy:
When he's well, he can really produce some serious fantasy football numbers; when he's injured,
just plan to put him on the IR and get someone else.
That injury thing, just to sum up: Hamstring. Ankle. Knee. Undisclosed illness. Concussion.
Foot. Head. Shoulder. Concussion again. And again. Knee again. Calf. Concussion. Knee.
Look at it this way. If you look at all the NFL players to figure out who might have an injuryfree year, this guy is so due.
Number Tres:
Michael Vick
All the talk in Philadelphia is about the quarterback battle, how good all the choices are, how
Vick might not even start the season, and I say: True, but hooey.
True, because Nick Foles is pretty good, and Matt Barkley looks dynamic. Either of those guys
could start. Even Dennis Dixon is quality. And if those were the only QBs battling it out in
Philly, that would be a real competition.
But hooey, because Michael Vick is killer. He's the one who has the swagger in the locker room
(look at that tail go), he's the one who will lead the team -- and most important to a new coach
who desperately wants to win rather than rebuild, Vick can put up the numbers now. Can I get a
woof woof?
You have to be careful, because the Eagles have one of the worst defenses I've seen in a long
time, and that means losses. Losses tend to be blamed on the QB, especially one who can string
together a run of interceptions. Philly fans are not exactly known for their eternal Zen-like
patience.
However. Giving up points like crazy means you need to score like crazy. And Vick is someone
who can do that. You could be looking at monster numbers here, as Vick flings the ball 40 or 50
times a game to try to keep up with his defense.
Vick is not my favorite gimpy guy because it was a series of concussions that shelved him for
the final 5 games of last season, so he's just one big hit from holding a clipboard for the year.
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Make sure you get one of the young-gun quarterbacks (Kaepernick, Wilson, Luck, Bradford,
Freeman) to go with Old Man Vick.
But if you're trolling for a QB in the late rounds and trying to decide between elder statesmen
Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub or Philip Rivers, go with the younger old guy,
Vick. The guy in a throw-first offense, and a throw-because-we-have-to offense.
Numero Two:
Michael Turner
Yes, you read it right. I want you to draft a guy who's currently not signed by any team.
And if he were signed, no one would draft him, because his knees are like old cheese and he will
NOT gain 1,000 yards, not now, not ever again.
Turner is just about ready to join Jamal Lewis, LaDainian Tomlinson and Jerome Bettis on the
porch of the old folks' home. Rocking back and forth and daring that smart-ass 12-year-old on
the steps to come one step closer so they can whack him with their canes.
However (again). Assuming some team does pick up Turner, there is one thing you can count on
from him: touchdowns. He is a human bowling ball, and that's good for his future team, and
good for you, with the last pick of your draft.
Number-o Uno:
Mike Wallace
Hey look, I gave you a bunch of dogs and old farts, so I get to give you a sure-fire, obvious
choice, too.
Mike Wallace is the ideal of a wideout: Self-centered, check. Annoying, check. Prima donna to
the max, check. Phenomenal fantasy producer, check.
In most drafts, he's considered a decent second receiver. Yahoo's site has him listed as the 22nd
best receiver. Some mock drafts, he's going in the sixth or seventh rounds.
That's ridiculous. And for you, ridiculously lucky.
The knock on Wallace is less about him than his QB, who was a rookie last year with more
interceptions than touchdowns. But the knock on Tannehill is that he's not a great touch passer,
that he can only throw the deep ball well. Umm… but isn't that GOOD news for Wallace…?
Wallace isn't an old guy, but he's been gimpy -- out for the last five weeks of the 2012 season
with a hip injury, and currently in and out with hamstring issues.
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This is perfect for you, because it tamps down his value in fantasy football drafts, but means
nothing about his production this year. Get stud production without paying stud prices.
Honorable mention:
James Jones, hurt every year, always second banana, always puts up big numbers. Plus Jordy
can't come out to play right now.
Ahmad Bradshaw, over the hill at 27? Really?
Dwayne Bowe managed to snag touchdown passes when guys named Tyler, Ingle and Quinn
were throwing to him. The only man outside of Alex Smith's mom who's overjoyed to see Alex
walk into the room.
DeSean Jackson, a walking, strutting, me-first injury waiting to happen. That's spelled V-A-LU-E.
Kenny Britt, fragile ego, fragile body, suspect quarterback. Can you still have unlimited upside
after four middling years in the NFL? Yes, absolutely.
Golden Tate, not elderly or hurt but makes the honorable mention list as a rookie last year who
is consistently overlooked by everyone except his quarterback (sixth in the league in targets) and
the only receiver on the Seahawks whose name isn't super-glued to the Questionable list.
Rashard Mendenhall, just kidding. He retired last year, didn't he? ;p
Darren McFadden is undraftable, sorry. Really, it's for your own good, I'm just watching your
blood pressure for you. He does get honorable mention because of his Questionable Injury Hall
of Fame status, though. Bottom to top: Toe, foot, ankle, knee, hamstring, groin, shoulder. Missed
21 games in three years. The Sidney Rice of running backs. Good news is, he's fresh. Bad news
is, keep that Seal-a-Meal handy for him this year, as well.
~ end ~
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The Perfect Draft: 12-Team Non-PPR Scoring System
August 15, 2013
by: John Cooney
Anytime the word “perfect” is mentioned visions of Green Bay Packer legendary coach Vince
Lombardi come to mind. Coach Lombardi firmly believed in doing something repeatedly until it
was “perfect”. AS demanding as Coach Lombardi was with his players, he understood that
attaining perfection was more of a concept rather than an attainable goal. The championship
winning coach preached to his Green Bay Packer teams, “You’re not gonna’ get perfection, but
you’re gonna’ get excellence in the process.”
Many fantasy footballers go into every season with expectations of that “perfect” season, starting
with the perfect draft. Stats are broken down, injury situations evaluated, coaching changes are
considered, free agent signings and trades are dissected in the process of formulating that pristine
fantasy football franchise. Mock drafts have become a very popular way to gauge were a player
is likely to go off the board. ADP (average draft position) is derived from a culmination of many
mock drafts and then averaging out the round and slot where a player is taken. The ultimate goal
is to design the perfect draft plan of blue chip weapons plucked at the right time sprinkled with
that eyebrow-raising sleeper pick snatched in just the right round.
Perfection… a concept, a goal pursued with a structured plan but best attained through much
common sense. We all strive to develop the perfect draft plan and feel we go into our drafts with
the right matrix to get the job done. Then it happens! Most always within a few rounds the plan
goes into the nearest shredder and you pull out plan B… or C; or you just start the “fly by the
seat of your pants” mode. That, fantasy football friends, is the fun, attraction and excitement of
the game. Perfection may very well be unattainable, but year-in, year-out we come back for
more and give it our best shot.
What we are attempting to accomplish here is develop the best combination of performance and
value at any given position in your draft. But if we are putting together the perfect draft, then
performance can’t be the only consideration. Each draft pick has to “fit” the respective team’s
need and makeup also. We can’t just follow an ADP list and go with the BAP (best available
player). Later rounds are when handcuffs need to be considered, roster depth has to be addressed
and flexibility for near-future transactions plotted. “Value” isn’t just assumed via a player’s rank
on the ADP chart; situation and circumstance also weigh in when putting together the perfect
draft. In early rounds we can consider Average Draft Position (ADP) as a guide, but the middle
and later rounds require “feel” and intuition backed by information.
So let’s put together the Perfect PPR Draft for a 12 team league. We’ll assume the following
scoring system:
4 pts/TD pass, 6 pts/all other TDs
1 pt/20 yards passing
1 pt/10 yards rushing
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1 pt/10 yards receiving
1 pt PPR
Roster requirements for the 16-round draft we will work from, keeping things rather basic:
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D; 7 bench players of any position, NO FLEX.
Time to draft!
1. Adrian Peterson, MIN- The sheer volume of AP’s production makes him the top
choice in any format. He sets the table for team one to be versatile going forward.
More catches are anticipated for 2013, however. Mostly a Team 1 no-brainer, but
Doug Martin was in the running.
2. Doug Martin, TB- Muscle Hamster (he hates that!) catapults his way to the top of
the all-purpose tailbacks. Last year’s boffo numbers came behind a banged up oline; they’re healthy now. Team 2 thrilled.
3. Jamaal Charles, KC- “Chief Lightning Bolt” now has coach Andy Reid installing
a new, pass a lot offense and Charles is the center piece. A 70-80 catch year is
just around the corner. Team 3 considered Arian Foster but too much wear on
those Texan wheels.
4. LeSean McCoy, PHL- New coach, more touches. McCoy isn’t shady about
playing in coach Chip Kelly’s up-tempo, RB-centric offense. Faster snaps, more
plays, more McCoy. Team 4 likes the gamble. Still no Foster.
5. Arian Foster, HOU- Team 5 looks a gift horse in the face. True, Foster is showing
some rough edges now but he still handles the rock in all phases of the Houston
play calls. PPR is there, though the runs after the catch are getting shorter.
6. CJ Spiller, BUF- Finally a coach that is ready to let er rip with Spiller. Possibly
the NFL’s most explosive running back and now the touches to go with it. A loud
roar from the Team 6 war room.
7. Calvin Johnson, DET- Team 7 breaks the old-time running back run. Cal will be
hard-pressed to top his 2012 record-setting receiving yards, but those 5 TDs are
sure to grow; double digits.
8. Ray Rice, BAL- Team 8 shouts “Really?” The Ravens have lost a lot of quality
offensive pieces, but the main cog remains. Baltimore needs Rice more than ever;
runs, catches… whatever it takes.
9. Trent Richardson, CLV- New Browns coaching brain trust Chudzinski and Turner
are gearing Richardson up for league leading touch workloads. T-Rich’s 2012
numbers aren’t bad considering most came while playing hurt.
10. Matt Forte, CHI- If ever there was a prototype PPR halfback, Forte is in that
mold. Now saddled up with offensive stylist Marc Trestman, the focus in Chitown
is all on Forte. The call is get him the ball, and Team 10 agrees.
11. Steven Jackson, ATL- A change of address comes at just the right time in
Jackson’s career, and he lines up in just the right place. This offense was begging
for a rusher with receiving skills and SJax may be set for a late career boom.
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12. Marshawn Lynch, SEA- Team 12 allows the draft to come to them and Lynch is
the call. Not the pass catcher he once was, Lynch is all business on the ground
and a regular goal line intruder. Lynch stays motivated with a couple of young
bucks on his tail (C. Michael and Turbin).
Round 2: (reverse order, 12-1)
1. Dez Bryant, DAL- Bryant blew up in 2012 and hasn’t looked back. All news out of camp
has Bryant tearing it up and practically unstoppable. He could very well challenge Calvin
Johnson for top gun, and Team 12 goes chest bumping around the draft room.
2. Alfred Morris, WSH- The latest graduate of the Coach Shanahan late round bloomers
falls to the 2nd round ONLY because this is a PPR draft and he offers very little in the
catch column. Team 11 has Steven Jackson to take care of that.
3. AJ Green, CIN- YIKES! Team 10 benefits from the depth of this year’s talent and lands
the #1 big play threat in the pros. His 90+ catches are easily overlooked due to his scores
from out deep.
4. Brandon Marshall, CHI- PPR and Marshall go hand-in-hand. Jay Cutler’s top target is an
easy add for Team 9.
5. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ- Remember when Fitz was the 1st or 2nd WR off the board. With
Coach Arians calling the shots and Carson Palmer tossing the shots, Fitzgerald is BACK!
6. Chris Johnson, TEN- Team 7 loads up on the Johnsons, already having Calvin on board.
The Titan playmaker may lose out on goal liners with Shonn Greene around, but he is the
pass receiving factor in the Tennessee backfield. The speed is still there to break it open
at any time.
7. Demaryius Thomas, DEN- Sure Eric Decker AND Wes Welker are there, but Thomas is
the #1 target of prolific passer Peyton Manning. Decker has to share HIS with Welker;
Thomas keeps what he earned last season.
8. Stevan Ridley, NE- Team 5 is taking what the league gives, pairing TD-banger Ridley
with the top TD rusher of the past couple of seasons (Foster). A powerful start for Team
5.
9. Darren Sproles, NO- While Sproles is all about PPR action; this is a bit of a gamble for
Team 4. Coach Payton is talking a bigger run game for 2013 and Sproles may lose some
of those passing down opportunities. But it is PPR, and the mighty mite catches 65 in a
bad year.
10. Reggie Bush, DET- Bush heads over to the Motor City and back to a pass-first offense.
His carries will drop, but on a team that puts the ball up 700+ times, 70-80 catches is
there for the asking.
11. Julio Jones, ATL- Team 2 is high-fiving all over the place here. Jones is the perfect bigplay, young, explosive deep threat that has the look of making the league his own.
12. Jimmy Graham, NO- Graham has been essentially the Saints top receiver the past 2
seasons. In a PPR league requiring a TE, Graham creates incredible positional separation
from the rest of the competition. Team 1 can deal with this luxury here, having the very
next pick in round 3.
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1. Roddy White, ATL- White is the epitome of a PPR wideout, capable of 90+ catches.
White adds PPR value to roster that started slow in that area with Adrian Peterson.
2. Randall Cobb, GB- Team 2 adds the prototype PPR receiver in Cobb, balancing out the
big fly potential of Julio Jones. Good blending of explosive scoring and steady pointgetting.
3. Andre Johnson, HOU- Having secured a dynamic PPR backfield of Charles and Bush,
Team 3 brings aboard a 100-catch wideout. Even with a 10% drop Johnson brings 90catch potential.
4. Victor Cruz, NYG- Cruz is a fine package of durability, high volume targets and yards
after catch skill. Team 4 nailed the Giants best wideout as a WR1.
5. Vincent Jackson, TB- The Bucs are working hard on expanding VJax’s route tree, setting
the deep threat all over the formation, including slot. Known more as a long-baller,
Jackson is gaining a PPR value in Tampa Bay.
6. Lamar Miller, MIA- Miller has breakout written all over him in Miami and Team 6 was
sharp in making Miller a solid complement to playmaker CJ Spiller. Miller is a fine pass
catcher.
7. Darren McFadden, OAK- Landing a quality tailback like DMC in the 3rd round, and as a
RB2 for Team 7, is working a perfect draft. Team 7 fields a high risk/reward backfield,
complete with speed and good hands out of the backfield.
8. Aaron Rodgers, GB- Team 8 breaks the QB drought with Rodgers. Rodgers is the best
value move here, adding pizzazz to a fairly steady roster needing a little zest.
9. Drew Brees, NO- Mini QB run here. Team 9 follows up with Brees. Like Team 8, Team
9 adds some spicy point production via Brees and that is a solid balancing act for
Richardson and Marshall.
10. Danny Amendola, NE- Did Team 10 just haul in serious PPR points with Amendola? So
far in camp Amendola IS Wes Welker in a bigger, faster (and more fragile) package. A
big roll of the dice on several fronts for Team 10, but at the right time.
11. Dwayne Bowe, KC- Some around the room are raising that one eye-brow and trying to
hide that snicker. There is a lot of good things happening in KC, and Bowe is positioned
to have a career season. A stellar Strength Of Schedule (SOS) versus the pass makes
Bowe even more appealing here.
12. Jordy Nelson, GB- Yes, Nelson is rehabbing after recent knee surgery, but he is set to
return by week 2 at the latest. Team 12 just needs Nelson to be a solid WR2 upon his
return. Big plays and lots of targets are enticing.
1. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX- Carrying mostly a 2nd round ADP, MJD drops to the 4th due
to lingering questions about his balky foot, conditioning and the burden of many touches
the past 4 seasons. However, recent news has MJD feeling fit and ready to go; a welleducated gamble for Team 12.
2. Rob Gronkowski, NE- Obviously another injury risk, but clearly the 2nd best TE on the
board, a PPR gem and a solid value in a league employing the TE.
3. DeMarco Murray, DAL- Sure, he’s a talented pass-catching back with injury concerns;
most running backs are injury concerns. Team 10 takes what the board offers, a playmaking RB2 with 50-60 catch potential.
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4. Eric Decker, DEN- OK, Team 9 reaches a bit for the WR2 on the roster. But Decker is a
6’3 comfort target for QB Peyton Manning and the #1 redzone bulls eye for his QB. The
Welker factor… can’t worry about that when this kind of talent in a pass-rich offense is
just sitting there.
5. Frank Gore, SF- The warhorse 49er back isn’t swinging out of the backfield much these
days, but he still runs effectively, with power and is a goal line regular. A fine
complement to the PPR king, Ray Rice.
6. Wes Welker, DEN- Team 7 probably passes on Welker if Cal Johnson wasn’t on the
roster. Welker’s present value is that of a low WR2-high WR3, but rockets to top 7 status
should either Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker miss time (which they both have the
past few seasons).
7. Peyton Manning, DEN- 3 of the last 4 picks are Broncos; it’s that offense! If Denver can
send 3 wideouts to fantasy rosters in the first 4 rounds, then the QB HAS to be a hot
commodity. Manning’s pass SOS is spectacular; a stud 4th round move by Team 6.
8. Reggie Wayne, IND- When drawing up the PPR WR blueprint, you get Reggie Wayne.
Wayne topped 100 catches last season and has the potential to do it again with a new
offensive scheme in place. Wayne is a solid PPR WR2 to Team 5’s Vincent Jackson.
9. Marques Colston, NO- Colston is the poster boy for consistency and WR2, in any format.
10. Pierre Garcon, WSH- Team 3 takes a shot but gets the man they wanted. Garcon, when
healthy, is a beast with the football in his hands and a proven big play producer. Clearly
the WR1 in DC, Team 3 knows you have to take progressive steps to win.
11. David Wilson, NYG- Like his playing style, Wilson is a hit big or miss big selection. On
good days Team 2 knows the backfield of Wilson and Doug Martin will be unbeatable.
On bad days, it’s all Martin and not much else.
12. Hakeem Nicks, NYG- Nicks is at times spectacular, capable of huge games… when
healthy. Team 1 has weekly PPR producer Roddy White in the fold, and it is sound
strategy to go for broke with the WR2.
1. LeVeon Bell, PIT- The Steelers are desperately searching for a bell-cow rusher, and feel
Bell is the ringer. He’s not explosive, but is steady, sound with the football and a solid
pass catcher. Team 1 has Adrian Peterson at RB1, so taking a shot on an unproven back
with all-around skills (not speed however) is the way to go.
2. Jason Witten, DAL- When it comes to pure PPR tight ends, Witten is at worst a 1B. More
TD production would take his fantasy game to a whole new level; he’s been busy in
camp working the green zone (inside the 10).
3. Matt Ryan, ATL- Now a member of the 4000 yard club, Ryan is a plug-n-play weekly
passer for Team 3. Setting the starting lineup is almost complete for this franchise in the
first 5 rounds.
4. Shane Vereen, NE- Team 4 grabs 3 RBs in the first 5 rounds. Vereen has huge PPR
potential in 2013, as the Pats gutted the WR corps and have major issues at TE. Vereen
has WR-like hands and is a high-end hedge against a LeSean McCoy mishap.
5. Vernon Davis, SF- Davis is seeing loads of reps at WR spots so far in camp. The ‘Niner
receivers are Anquan Boldin and guys name Joe… Davis has big-time potential in 2013.
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6. Antonio Brown, PIT- Team 6 builds its YAC receiver corps, with Demaryius Thomas
and now Antonio Brown. Brown is in the departed Mike Wallace role, but brings a more
complete route tree and offers slightly better PPR value than Wallace.
7. Jared Cook, STL- WHAT! Team 7 must be whacked! Not really; Team 7 is in the know.
Cook is being utilized NOT as a traditional TE in St. Louis, but as a next man up for
Danny Amendola. Cook has 4.5 speed and is logging major reps in the Amendola role, in
the slot. This is a big time roll of the dice for Team 7, but could pay off in spades.
8. Mike Wallace, MIA- Ironic that Wallace comes off the board AFTER his Steeler
successor, Antonio Brown. Wallace is being force-fed targets in camp while the Dolphin
coaches expand his routes run. He makes a solid big play fit to ultra-productive Larry
Fitzgerald’s possession-like efforts.
9. Montee Ball, DEN- Team 9 is figuring the rookie back will see the rock often in the
redzone, given the Broncos high-powered attack. Ball becomes the RB2 of a young Team
9 backfield (Trent Richardson).
10. Cam Newton, CAR- Newton in a lineup is like adding a half a running back. It’s a solid
selection by Team 10, with two fragile RBs already chosen (Matt Forte and DeMarco
Murray).
11. Torrey Smith, BAL- Smith is one of those risk/reward receivers in that he can score via
the big play or at times disappear. The Raven offense NEEDS Smith this season more
than ever, and his work ethic and desire to improve is what Team 11 is counting on.
12. Steve Smith, CAR- Though he is aging, Smith is as nasty and combative as ever. He still
gets wide open and is the clear WR1 in Carolina, blessed with a cannon-armed passer.
1. Tom Brady, NE- This wasn’t happening last year as Brady and other top passers went
early in the 2012 draft. Team 12 completes the starting 6 with the veteran fantasy star
QB… OUTSTANDING!
2. Anquan Boldin, SF- Team 11 reunited Boldin with Torrey Smith (2012 Raven
teammates). Boldin is looking like a bona fide PPR star as he gels with dynamic passer
Colin Kaepernick, and the 49er receiving unit being quite thin.
3. Cecil Shorts III- Shorts III plays a lot like his fellow Mount Union alum, Pierre Garcon.
Nix that, he is actually a more accomplished and polished receiver and a YAC monster.
The Jags’ passing game may be limited, but Shorts is the main aerial weapon there and an
outstanding WR3 for Team 10.
4. Giovani Bernard, CIN- Already slated for half the carries in Cincy, Bernard IS the
passing attack from the Bengal backfield. Cincinnati is bringing a loaded offense to the
field in 2013 and Bernard has FLEX-appeal and the potential to be a 14-18 touch back
right away. Solid RB3.
5. Tony Gonzalez, ATL- PPR… tight end… Gonzalez… it all goes together. Back for one
last hurrah, Gonzo is in a “perfect” offense and makes a perfect PPR round 6 pick.
6. Matt Stafford, DET- What a difference a year makes! Team 7’s war room erupts as they
bring home a potential 5000 yard passer with 30+ TD chops.
7. Eddie Lacy, GB- Lacy is chipping away at the backfield logjam and seeing the light of
first team RB. Big and burly, Lacy doesn’t offer much in PPR value, but can be a goal
line surprise if the Packer offense continues to roll as in the past.
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8. James Jones, GB- The stars are aligning for the FORMER WR3 in Green Bay.
Ballyhooed Randall Cobb is banged up (can he survive the brutality of the NFL slot?)
and flashy Jordy Nelson is rehabbing from recent knee surgery. Suddenly Jones is a WR1
for Aaron Rodgers, and now has some gravitas after leading the NFL in TD catches last
season. Stellar WR3 for Team 5.
9. Tony Romo, DAL- Romo may annoy Cowboy fans, but he thrills his fantasy football
owners. Team 4 smartly waits for a QB and is rewarded with a 4500-30 TD passer.
10. Greg Jennings, MIN- Getting a team’s WR1 as a FFB WR3 is fine draft card-poker by
Team 3. Jennings needs to stay on the field, but well worth the gamble as the third
wideout.
11. Robert Griffin III- The name of the game in 2013 is QB Poker… hold onto your QB
cards and play a big hand late. RGIII appears to be a go for week 1, and Team 2 may
look like geniuses come week 16.
12. Ryan Mathews, SD- Wasn’t he a first rounder just last season? Team 1 starts to establish
a solid bench with the multi-talented but iffy efforted Mathews.
1. Andrew Luck, IND- Team 1 took to playing QB Poker and cashed in their chips for some
Luck… Andrew Luck. Now back to a familiar offense with college OC Pep Hamilton,
Luck will improve on his sharp rookie numbers.
2. DeSean Jackson, PHL- DJax is starring in the Chip Kelly training camp. Now motivated
and excited about his 2013 prospects, Jackson offers low true PPR value but is
microwave fantasy points.
3. Chris Ivory, NYJ- ADP had Ivory going higher, nut Team 3 waits it out and nabs the Jets
RB1 in round 7. Ivory is an injury risk, but one that can be taken as Team 3’s RB3.
4. TY Hilton, IND- Team 4 must have a grapevine to Indy training camp as Hilton has been
outplaying free agent Darrius Heyward-Bey by a mile. Hilton has developed a serious
connection with QB Luck, and Team 4 is banking on a big year 2 jump, with Hilton as a
fantasy WR3.
5. Colin Kaepernick, SF- With a better receiving unit there’s no way Kaep falls this low.
Coach Harbaugh is confident his well-armed and dangerous QB will outshine the lack of
receiving talent. Team 8 likes the upside here in the 7th round.
6. Tavon Austin, STL- The rookie with the explosive skill set “fell” to the 7th, a couple of
rounds below the ADP ranks. Austin is a do-it-all big play machine, but his size may
scare some drafters off. If selected as a WR3, that is OTSTANDING!
7. Steve Johnson, BUF- The Bills veteran receiver might be even better as a fantasy
producer with more consistent hands. He does get the targets and is the one wideout the
Bills QBs can rely on. A sharp WR3 grab in round 7.
8. Rashard Mendenhall, ARZ- Another one of those former 1st round daisies of recent past
drafts. Mendenhall is healthy but plies his trade behind a poor o-line and in a pass-first
program. However, Mendy faces a very advantageous run-SOS and should be a fine bye
week stand-in.
9. Miles Austin, DAL- Austin is the forgotten man in the Cowboy passing game, as far as
fantasy players go. If his fragile hammys behave, Team 9 just nailed a stud of a WR3.
10. DeAngelo Williams, CAR- Yes he is 30 this season, but the miles on those wheels are
quite low; the talent is showroom sharp, however. Williams may be the show in the
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Panther backfield this season as Jonathan Stewart still battles ankle issues. The schedule
is attractive, and Williams as a RB3 is a great buy.
11. Andre Brown, NYG- You know what? This is supposed to be David Wilson’s “team”.
Listen to the coaches… it’s not. Brown is trusted with the football when it counts, and a
50/50 split with goal line work makes a solid RB3 for Team 11.
12. Ahmad Bradshaw, IND- If only those feet would cooperate. Bradshaw seems to be in a
share-time with Vick Ballard, but in a true WCO the former Giant can excel when
opportunity presents itself. Good roll of the dice as a RB3.
1. Kyle Rudolph, MIN- When you can’t secure the top PPR tight ends, best to tag one that
is going to break the stripe for 6. Rudolph is a redzone demon and Team 12’s top TE.
2. Russell Wilson, SEA- Team 11 may have played the QB Poker hand a bit long, but
Wilson showed he may be ready to expand his passing game. His mobility and potential
for added rushing scores makes him a solid late round QB1.
3. Greg Olsen, CAR- The Panthers’ search for a solid WR2 opposite Steve Smith always
comes up short. Olsen, by default, fills that role and is a fine PPR TE.
4. Mike Williams, TB- Team 9 doubles up on the WR3 spot, hedging the bet on Miles
Austin’s troublesome hamstrings with the rock solid work of Williams. 65 catches and a
chance for 10 TDs is a nice WR3 in round 8.
5. Kenny Britt, TEN- Britt has had the quietest off-season as a pro, and that’s good. Team 8
gambles that he’ll reach his immense potential this season and star from the WR3 spot on
this roster.
6. Danny Woodhead, SD- The Chargers were quick to get Woodhead inked once he hit the
open market. Now a part of a true RBBC, Woodhead’s value is solid in a PPR setting.
7. Antonio Gates, SD- Team 6 needs a TE and announces the aging Gates as the guy. Gates
is having a good camp and this season plays in a shorter passing scheme; TE friendly,
gang.
8. Ben Tate, HOU- Have Foster? Must nail Tate as the handcuff. Foster is missing all of
training camp thus far and Tate has shown RB1 chops when handed the rock.
9. Bryce Brown, PHL- Looks like the fantasy cops are out in this round, as another handcuff
is performed. Brown is currently Shady McCoy’s understudy, but he has true FLEX
value too. Coach Kelly’s offense is RB centric; plenty of plays to go around.
10. Emmanuel Sanders, PIT- A terrific WR4 for Team 3. Sanders starts opposite Antonio
Brown and is getting reps as a redzoner.
11. Vick Ballard, IND- At worst Team 2 gets a RB3 in a share-time program. However,
Ballard shares those snaps with Ahmad Bradshaw, he of the angry feet. Could be a round
8 steal.
12. Golden Tate, SEA- Tate has a golden opportunity (sorry, couldn’t resist) to break out this
year. Big name Percy Harvin may never see the field this season and Tate’s game fits
right in with the playbook designed for Harvin. Tate is a YAC attacker, and a risky WR3
play here.
1. Daryl Richardson, STL- The former 6th rounder is a PPR friendly fill in. He’s in a full
blown RBBC, but not a big worry as a fantasy RB4 for Team 1.
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2. Ronnie Hillman, DEN- Hillman is actually running as Denver’s top back on the depth
charts so far. He is the pass catching end of the young Bronco backfield.
3. Fred Davis, WSH- Team 3 laid low on the tight end situation, having Davis in the cross
hairs for this spot. Davis is running pain-free and it has to be pointed out, he’s running
the Shannon Sharpe routes in Coach Shanahan’s playbook… just sayin!
4. Alshon Jeffery, CHI- Jeffery has locked up the WR2 job in Chicago and is having a solid
camp. A nice WR4 here with potential in a more aggressive passing scheme.
5. Mark Ingram, NO- Fantasy owners are missing the boat on Ingram this year. I know
we’ve heard it all before, but his camp work and Coach Payton’s promise of a run game
needs to be taken seriously this season. Team 5 scores a solid here.
6. Fred Jackson, BUF- Purely a CJ Spiller cuff here, but a smart move in this round.
7. Isaiah Pead, STL- Probably the best all-around young RB in the rams RBBC, and Team
7’s RB4.
8. Bernard Pierce, BAL- If this weren’t a PPR league Pierce is taken much earlier. Ray Rice
owners… cuff this guy!
9. Jemichael Finley, GB- The perennial tease again looks like a breakout player in camp.
Team 9 gives him a go one more time at the TE1.
10. Vincent Brown, SD- Brown may very well lead the Chargers in catches, and that is PPR
music to an owners ears. Quality WR 4 in round 9.
11. Eli Manning, NYG- Team 11 goes right back to the QB well, backing up Russell Wilson
with a reliable Eli Manning.
12. Benjarvus Green-Ellis, CIN- BJGE has little to no PPR value, but he is a banger at the
goal line. In a bye week void, TDs come in big.
1. Lance Moore, NO- The Saints WR corps is suddenly paper thin; Moore is a Brees
favorite and his redzone wideout of choice.
2. Pierre Thomas, NO- Saints do-it-all tailback and Team 11’s RB4.
3. Michael Floyd, ARZ- Can’t stress it enough that Coach Arians makes Floyd a possible
fantasy star THIS SEASON. As a round 10 grab… OUTSTANDING! Falls here due to
PPR concerns.
4. Jay Cutler, CHI- Now in a “show me” season, Cutler has the weapons and the offensive
coach to be a fantasy factor again. Here he’s a QB2.
5. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU- Lighting up camp and finally a solid WR2 in Houston. Round
10 WR4 that could surprise.
6. Kendall Wright, TEN- Gathered 60+ catches in his rookie season last year. PPR may
drop but bigger plays downfield are expected.
7. Ryan Broyles, DET- An injury risk, but could become a glue-fingered slot machine in the
Lions pass-all offense. WR4 for Team 6.
8. Justin Blackmon, JAX- Someone had to take the shot on the Jags former 1st rounder.
After his suspension Blackmon could shine. Here he’s a fine WR4 gamble.
9. Carson Palmer, ARZ- In some mock drafts this long baller isn’t even drafted. A true fit
for Coach Arians downfield approach, and a solid bye week stand-in for Romo.
10. Seahawks DST- Ah, the first team defense/special teams comes off the board. Seattle’s
aggressive style creates turnovers and defensive scores. Team 3 looks to separate some
points from the opposition here.
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11. Aaron Dobson, NE- A round 10 upside pick who is a highlight maker.
12. Josh Gordon, CLV- Having back-to-back picks, Team 1 can chance it with the very
talented Gordon. Starts the year suspended, or would have gone many rounds earlier.
1. Brian Hartline, MIA- Hartline is catching everything in camp and seems to click with QB
Tannehill.
2. Andy Dalton, CIN- Solid QB2 in a high powered offense.
3. Joseph Randle, DAL- Rookie with PPR skills; needs a Demarco Murray injury for
touches (probable).
4. Coby Fleener, IND- Major potential reuniting with his college OC. Team 4 is feeling it
here.
5. Josh Freeman, TB- For all his warts Freeman is now a 4000 yard passer with 25+ TD
expectations.
6. Chris Givens, STL- The fleet Rams’ WR drops to the 11th round due to PPR limitations;
big plays but needs more receptions to move up a round or two.
7. 49ers DST- Time to start thinking defense and specialists.
8. LaMichael James, SF- A “look ahead” handcuff to Frank Gore, bypassing Kendall
Hunter.
9. Johnathan Franklin, GB- Packer rookie gains some value in PPR formats due to excellent
pass game skills.
10. Michael Bush, CHI- Matt Forte’s wrist jewelry.
11. Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL- Steven Jackson’s #2 man.
12. Bears DST- The defense always makes things happen and there’s that Hester guy.
1. Robert Turbin, SEA- Marshawn Lynch’s handcuff; keep an eye on rookie Christine
Michael.
2. Sidney Rice, SEA- Still has those gimpy knees, but is a redzone threat and a good bye
week option.
3. Mike Vick, PHL- Team 10 takes a shot on Vick as QB2. Could pay off down the road.
4. Patriots DST- Always a threat for turnovers and the team added return specialist Leon
Washington.
5. Denarius Moore, OAK- WR5 depth.
6. Philip Rivers, SD- Big changes in SD, but may help Rivers be more productive. Faster
passing game restores productivity here.
7. Alex Smith, KC- Team 6 just played a big hand; Smith has QB1 potential in Coach
Reid’s playbook.
8. Dexter McCluster, KC- Coach Reid has the Dex all over the field and running short,
deep, outside, inside. PPR sneaky star in the making.
9. Bengals DST- A nasty unit that gets after the QB.
10. Malcom Floyd, SD- Don’t look now but SD has Floyd and Brown and… . Floyd is now
de facto WR1 for the Chargers with yet another Danario Alexander’s knee injury.
11. Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN- A bigger version of Percy Harvin. Needs polish but the
rookie is explosive.
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12. Sam Bradford, STL- All the parts are there now. Check out his week 14-16 pass SOS…
nice!
1. Broncos DST- Aggressive pass rush and a breakaway returner in Trindon Holliday.
2. Matt Bryant, ATL- Kicker run? Big offense and a dome… nuff said!
3. Rueben Randle, NYG- A Hakeem Nicks boo-boo away from WR1-B status.
4. Greg Little, CLV- Quietly improved his hands and the Browns most reliable wideout.
5. Steelers DST- Coach Tomlin is angry and the revamped defense will be hot.
6. Cardinals DST- Talent throughout the unit and a secondary that may surprise with big
plays this season.
7. Stephen Gostkowski, NE- Always a top 5 point producer.
8. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT- Not a bad way to back up Aaron Rodgers.
9. Knowshon Moreno, DEN- The Montee Ball third level handcuff; some PPR value.
10. Blair Walsh, MIN- A booming leg kicking in a dome… gimme!
11. Packers DST- Aggressive but flawed defense that sees chances to make plays.
12. Matt Prater, DEN- Consistent kicker in an explosive O.
1. Mohamed Sanu, CIN- Not a big PPR guy but can chip in on bye weeks with redzone
action.
2. Rob Housler, ARZ- Viewed as a big wideout by Coach Arians. TE2 with great upside.
3. Tyler Eifert, CIN- Has already been given specific plays in the Bengal playbook. Great
route runner and hands and Team 10 is gambling on him as TE1.
4. Greg Zuerlein, STL- Another booming toe in a dome and supporting an offense on the
come.
5. Phil Dawson, SF- Years of toil in Cleveland pays off as a top point getter in SF.
6. Owen Daniels, HOU- Steady TE2 behind Team 7’s Jared Cook.
7. Dan Bailey, DAL- Cowboys can move the football but stall a bit within Bailey’s range.
8. Garrett Hartley, NO- Saints O may stumble more than usual this season, with Hartley
closing out more drives. Dome kicker; gotta love ‘em.
9. Shonn Greene, TEN- PPR and Greene just do not agree, but he is a goal line threat in a
bye week situation.
10. Joique Bell, DET- Team 3 eschewed Mikal Leshoure as Reggie Bush’s handcuff, opting
for Bell.
11. Dolphins DST- underrated squad with a terrific kick/punt returner in Marcus Thigpen.
Great call Team 2!
12. Adam Vinatieri, IND- You got it… dome kicker on an improving offense.
1. Toby Gerhart, MIN- Team 1 does the obvious; AP’s cuff.
2. Michael Smith, TB- Smith is a burner of a RB who will see plenty of touches in place of
Doug Martin if…
3. Randy Bullock, HOU- Texan booters always score and …dome!
4. Alex Henry, PHL- Eagles will move the football but hiccups in the redzone lead to lots of
Henry kicks.
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5. Bilal Powell, NYJ- Powell isn’t special in any way, but he runs hard, catches the football
well and is next man up behind injury prone Chris Ivory.
6. Jordan Cameron, CLV- Team 6 backs up Gates with a young up-comer.
7. Riley Cooper, PHL- Forget his poor choice of words, Cooper is the only big target on the
Eagles and now has something to prove.
8. Rams DST- Serious D-line aggression and an underrated LB corps. Tavon Austin doing
the returns… oh my!
9. Dustin Keller, MIA- Might be big in Miami; seeing a lot of redzone action in camp… A
LOT!
10. Ravens DST- Now younger and the Ravens coaches always find a way to field a solid
bunch. Jacoby Jones is a stellar returner.
11. Sebastian Janikowski, OAK- Seabass IS the Raider offense some weeks. Still a potent big
leg.
12. Matt Schaub, HOU- Brady/Schaub QB stable is comforting for Team 12.
1. Brandon Myers, NYG- Kyle Rudolph’s bye week filler.
2. Marvin Jones, CIN- Gets the AJ Green routes if Green is out; excellent roster stash.
3. Roy Helu, WSH- Should have been Team 11’s cuff to Morris. May be PPR worthy right
away.
4. Rod Streater, OAK- proving more consistent that more touted teammate Moore. 50+
catches as a rookie last year… nice stash.
5. Zach Sudfield, NE- Round 16 is made for upside; Sudfield is in the right place at the
right time.
6. Marcel Reece, OAK- Converted wideout is all PPR, and a viable handcuff for McFadden.
7. Daniel Thomas, MIA- He’s a camp watch for Team 6; rookie Mike Gillislee is on the
radar here too as a cuff to Lamar Miller.
8. Martellus Bennett, CHI- Strictly a Vernon Davis cuff and bye week sub.
9. Brandon Pettigrew, DET- Solid PPR TE but not much else after the catch. TE2 here.
10. Joe Flacco, BAL- Loss of weapons has hurt his fantasy value in a big way. QB2 at best.
11. James Casey, PHL- Darkhorse fantasy player but has the eye of Coach Kelly. Versatility
may pay off.
12. Chris Polk, PHl- Polk is putting the pressure on Bryce Brown in camp and is a full level
above Brown as a pass receiver; a Chip Kelly must.
.
2013 seems to be a “return to the future” type season. Last year quarterbacks were breaking 5000
yards passing and 40 TDs, and the QB fantasy football inventory was light. Grabbing a passer
early in the 2012 draft process was the way to go… or so it seemed. The infusion of truly
talented and dynamic quarterbacks during the ’12 season has stocked the 2013 pool with plenty
of quality choices. In just one season the fantasy landscape has shifted from early QB acquisition
to playing QB Poker, holding your draft cards and knowing when to play them later in the draft.
With the advancement of the passing game in the pros, the wide receiver position also has
morphed into a deep reservoir of pass catchers. Gang! It’s back to running backs in the early
rounds again. The feature back that carries he rock 20-25 times a game is almost extinct.
Winning fantasy football owners are ignoring “carries” and paying attention to TOUCHES as a
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determining factor in evaluating prospective backfield fantasy stars this year. The feature back
now handles the football 15-10 times a game in a variety of ways; handoffs, tosses, screens,
circle routes and down field deep routes. These new-fangled tailbacks get more with less. Those
kinds of backs are becoming plentiful, but not as deep as the QBs and WRs. Gotta go RB early
this year.
Handcuffing is a must, but some thought needs to go into that process. Next man up works in
most cases, such as the Arian Foster-Ben Tate dynamic, but often a smart fantasy owner will
look three-deep to cuff his starter, be it RB or WR. LeSean McCoy is popularly cuffed with
Bryce Brown, but in Coach Kelly’s eyes Brown is a potential headache and little known Chris
Polk actually is threatening Brown’s cuffability. The Bengals AJ Green is linked most often to
second season WR Mohamed Sanu. However Marvin Jones is the smarter draft pick for Green
owners as HE would be the player that jumps into Green’s routes, AND he can run them quite
well.
These are just a couple of examples where the perfect draft doesn’t exactly follow ADP, or
expert rankings or TV/radio talking head advice. Today, to put together the perfect draft it seems
one needs an advanced scout to break down game tape, follow training camps and translate it all
into fantasy football relevance.
Hey! That’s what we do here at Fantasy Football Mastermind!
With that, below is a matrix of the Perfect Draft for a 12 team PPR league. We can get a good
look at each team’s configuration and judge just how “perfect” each team is.
Have fun!
QUARTERBACKS = PEWTER
RUNNING BACKS = BLUE
WIDE RECEIVERS = GREEN
TIGHT ENDS = RED
KICKERS = PURPLE
DEF/ST = BLACK
RD1→
RD2←
RD3→
TEAM 1
Peterson
Graham
R White
TEAM 2
Martin
Jul Jones
Cobb
RD4←
Nicks
D Wilson
RD5→
RD6←
RD7→
L Bell
Mathews
Luck
RD8←
RD9→
G Tate
D
Richardson
Gordon
RD10
TEAM 3
Charles
R Bush
A
Johnson
Garcon
TEAM 4
McCoy
Sproles
Cruz
TEAM 5
Foster
Ridley
V Jackson
TEAM 6
Spiller
D Thomas
L Miller
Colston
Wayne
Witten
Griffin3
D
Jackson
Ballard
Hillman
Ryan
Jennings
Ivory
Vereen
Romo
Hilton
E Sanders
F Davis
B Brown
Jeffery
V Davis
Jm Jones
Kaepernic
k
B Tate
Ingram
P
Manning
A Brown
Lacy
T Austin
Dobson
Seahawks
Palmer
Blackmon
Gates
F Jackson
Broyles
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←
RD11
→
RD12
←
RD13
→
RD14
←
RD15
→
RD16
←
Hartline
Dalton
J Randle
Fleener
Freeman
Givens
Bradford
Patterson
Mal Floyd
Bengals
McCluster
A Smith
Broncos
M Bryant
R Randle
Little
Steelers
Cardinals
Vinatieri
Dolphins
J Bell
S Greene
Hartley
Bailey
Gerhart
Mk Smith
Bullock
Henry
B Powell
Cameron
Polk
Casey
Flacco
Pettigre
w
M Bennett
D Thomas
TEAM 8
R Rice
Fitzgerald
TEAM 9
Richardson
Marshall
TEAM 10
Forte
AJ Green
TEAM 11
S Jackson
Morris
TEAM 12
Lynch
D Bryant
RD3→
TEAM 7
Cal Johnson
Chr
Johnson
McFadden
A Rodgers
Brees
Bowe
Nelson
RD4←
Welker
Gore
Decker
Amendol
a
D Murray
RD5→
RD6←
RD7→
RD8←
Cook
Stafford
S Johnson
Woodhead
Wallace
Gonzalez
Mendenhall
Britt
Newton
Shorts
JonesDrew
S Smith
Olsen
RD9→
RD10
←
RD11
→
RD12
←
RD13
→
RD14
←
RD15
→
RD16
←
Pead
K Wright
Pierce
Hopkins
M Ball
Bernard
M Austin
Mk
Williams
Finley
Cutler
Gronkowsk
i
T Smith
Boldin
A Brown
R Wilson
V Brown
Mk Floyd
E Manning
P Thomas
Green-Ellis
L Moore
49ers
L James
Franklin
M Bush
J Rodgers
Bears
Rivers
D Moore
Patriots
Vick
S Rice
Turbin
Gostkowski
Moreno
Walsh
Packers
Prater
Daniels
Roethlisberge
r
Dawson
Zuerlein
Eifert
Housler
Sanu
R Cooper
Rams
Keller
Ravens
Janikowski
Schaub
Reece
Sudfield
Streater
Helu
Marv Jones
Myers
RD1→
RD2←
D Williams
Brady
Bradshaw
Rudolph
~ end ~
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Did He Really Just Say That?
A Few Red Flags You May Want to Watch Out For...
August 15, 2013
by: Eddie Rex
The NFL world can be a strange one.
And that's refreshing, given the intense scrutiny by fans and media of every single detail of
football players' lives, down to their gameday bowel movements, it's refreshing that despite
everyone watching and listening, players and coaches continue to produce such lame and
thoughtless drivel on such a regular basis.
Really, it gives you faith in humanity. Or at least, in the stupidity of humanity, which in some
ways is better.
This occasional verbal spew from NFL-ers does have an effect on our fantasy football world -like, for instance, if you're contemplating drafting an Oakland Raider onto your team (For
chrissakes, don't DO it! Get off the ledge NOW!), then you might want to know a thing or two
about the terminal dysfunction on that team.
This was one of my favorites of the preseason:
Rex Ryan was asked why he tabbed Mark Sanchez to start the first exhibition game for the Jets:
"Somebody's got to take the first snap," Ryan said.
Oh, Rex, nice vote of confidence there. But don't worry, Sanchez fans, Mark has a new fu
manchu thing going on now, and that makes him a mean character, a tough cookie. So how does
Mark show his inner fire, his team leadership? He gets angry, he gets tough, Mark Sanchez
shouts his rage from the rooftops:
"I think I earned the right to start this first game."
Oh, man, you are scary, dude. You think, maybe, I guess, that you should start the first
PRACTICE game. If it's not too inconvenient, that is. Hey, Mark, you have to move away from
me, I don't want to get too close, I might catch fire.
Speaking of fiery speeches, we have this vote of indifference from Raiders GM Reggie
Mackenzie:
"To say that we’re just going to take our lumps, that’s not the goal here."
Wow. Put that one on the bulletin board. We are not going to take our lumps!
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No lumps! Yaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh!!!!
At least, that's not the goal here.
What is the goal, you ask? Well, let me answer that. The goal, according to running back Darren
McFadden, is to make sure you get the high end of the field:
"That's my strength. I feel like I'm a downhill runner."
Finally oh finally, that's the secret the Raiders have been looking for. Prop up the east end of
OCo Stadium, simple as that. They have a runner who just needs to run down a hill. That should
make him better. That's his strength.
I assume that's because of his handicap. (Hey, back off, it's HARD to run on crutches! You try it,
see how YOU like it!)
Speaking of handicaps … or were we speaking of Raiders? Anyway, same thing. I love the move
to sign Charles Woodson, bring in some veteran experience, he can't move so good these days,
but he's a glue guy for the locker room.
Glue, as in, bounces off me and sticks to you.
Turns out one of the first things Woodson did on his new team was dicker with teammate Tracy
Porter over the number 24, which Porter had and Woodson wanted. They disagreed. So
eventually, they solved their differences like men: the team took the jersey from Porter, gave it to
Woodson. Tweet from Porter:
Well you Raiders fans...your guy has 24. It was TAKEN from me and given to him.
#congrats.....too funny how this biz "works"
Woodson clearly has been studying the works of Niccolo Machiavelli: Rule not by fear, not by
love, not by respect -- rule by asking management to help you out here and stick it to a
teammate. Veteran move.
Speaking of smooth moves, what do you say when you're a first-round pick at WR, you had a
grand total of one (1) pass thrown to you during your entire rookie season, and you dropped it,
now suddenly you have a golden opportunity the next season when just about every other
wideout on the team gets hurt, so you start and play three whole quarters in the opening
preseason game and you catch exactly one (1) ball, and then you fumble it?
Of course, you spit nails, you let people know you have high expectations for yourself, that
dammit you're BETTER than that! Like AJ Jenkins put it, judging his ridiculously putrid
preseason performance in his inimitably fiery way:
"I don't know. We'll watch the film tomorrow and we'll see."
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Yeah, we'll see, all right. We'll see you in another uniform is what we'll see.
Or another stadium, maybe the fabled Lambeau Field in Green Bay. When rookie Darius Slay of
the Lions was watching game tape with the team of a Packers game and his teammates
mentioned Lambeau, he said:
"Lambo? You mean like the car?"
Yeah, dude, exactly. Like the car.
I think I might like the sparkling repartee over this misunderstanding even more, as Slay related
it:
"I didn’t know it was Green Bay’s stadium. They said, 'Man, that’s the stadium!' I said,
'Oh man...' "
Yep, that cuts to the heart of it. Oh man.
Maybe the dude should have his brain washed out with soap. Apparently that's what happened to
Greg Jennings, after he left Green Bay:
"When I came over here, I was kind of brainwashed. There's no 'kind of' to it. Being over
in Green Bay, you’re brainwashed to think anyone in the division is tiers below. And so
coming over here I meet the people within the organization and I'm like, 'Wow, these are
really great people.'
"It’s like everything that you know in Green Bay is like the best, the best, the best, the best,
the best. And it’s like total brainwashing."
Gotcha. Good people in Minnesota. Brainwashers in Wisconsin. And those two states right
NEXT to each other, too. Lucky you got out of there.
So the moral of this article, I'd say, is don't draft 49er wide receiver AJ Jenkins, whatever you do.
And only draft Mark Sanchez if you plan on him being traded to another (seriously desperate)
team.
If you draft Greg Jennings, know that he's not the best best best best best anymore.
Be eternally thankful for the Raiders, one of the last teams fighting to elevate the NFL beyond its
silly penchant for strong and fair play.
And if you ever go to Green Bay, you gotta go in a Lambo.
~ end ~
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2013 Sleeper Preview
2013 Mastermind Sleepers
UPDATED 8/6/13
(by Michael Nazarek)
Everyone knows about Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson. The top 50
players taken in most fantasy drafts will likely be the same group of players. What separates the
men from the boys is knowing who will produce when they are not expected to produce. To this
end, I will supply you with sleeper lists of players at each of the key fantasy positions. Consider
each and weigh them against your league competition. I will list sleepers in three distinct
categories… obvious, darkhorses, and long-shots. I have also offered my “deep sleeper” at each
position. Note: The official projected statistics for these players were not posted, as they may
change with each guide update.
The following LONGSHOT SLEEPER was posted on these pages early in AUGUST of 2011.
It just goes to show you that sometimes these players pan out in a HUGE way…
Victor Cruz (New York Giants) – With WR Steve Smith signed in Philadelphia, who will fill the
#3 WR job for the Giants? Cruz appears as one of the possibilities, that is, provided he blows up
in the preseason like he did last year (6-145-3 against the Jets). Remember that one-handed
catch on that long 64-yard TD against the Jets? Anyway, I’ve added him here until someone
else rises to the occasion proving me wrong. He certainly is a long-shot, but one that might pay
off down the road.
Yeah, I’d say he paid off. And I drafted him myself in the 2011 FFWebMasters 14-team experts
league in the final round of my draft. He was a big reason why I made the playoffs. On to this
year’s lists…
QUARTERBACKS
The Obvious
Russell Wilson (Seattle) - Wilson came on in a big way late in his rookie season, nearly pulling
the upset over the Falcons in the playoffs. He'll only get better with experience, as well as new
target WR Percy Harvin. A healthy WR Sidney Rice also helps, and despite the fact the
Seahawks remain dedicated to the run, Wilson will have plenty of opportunities to showcase his
abilities, both in the passing game and via his quick feet. Update 8/6: Well, Wilson isn't the
issue here, but the fact that Harvin (hip surgery) won't play until December at the soonest and
Rice (knee) is iffy to be healthy for the season is reason for concern. Bottom Line: His ceiling
may be limited now, but he is still a sleeper.
Eli Manning (New York Giants) - It's interesting how one season can change for two talented
QBs. This time last year, Eli's brother Peyton was listed here coming off multiple neck
surgeries, and we all know how that trurned out. Now, it's Eli's turn. Why is he listed here?
Due to inconsistent play, injuries at wideout, a change at TE, and WR Victor Cruz's contract
situation, Manning is no longer consider a solid fantasy starter. But he has the talent to reclaim
that role. Provided the Giants get on the same page (WRs & TE), Cruz re-signs, and WR
Hakeem Nicks stays healthy, Manning should exceed expectations in 2013. Update 8/6:
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Manning is healthy and Cruz re-signed, but Nicks (groin) is having some health issues. That
said, second-year WR Rueben Randle has impressed and seems ready to take on a significant
role whether Nicks is healthy or not. That certainly helps the sleeper value of Manning.
Andy Dalton (Cincinnati) - Dalton has already shown he can produce big numbers, but he has
yet to do it consistently. In addition, only WR A.J. Green has stepped up his play enough to
make Dalton a better player. WR Mohamed Sanu flashed, but is returning from injury, while the
team drafted talented rookie TE Tyler Eifert. Perhaps, if Sanu and Eifert develop quickly, and
TE Jermaine Gresham loses his case of the dropsies, the Bengals passing game will raise Dalton
into the top 10 fantasy QBs. Then again, perhaps not. That is what makes Dalton a sleeper.
Update 8/6: Dalton has been solid in camp to date, and although WR A.J. Green (knee) is likely
out another week or so, he should be fine for week #1. Sanu and WR Marvin Jones have also
been solid, helping Dalton's fantasy prospects.
The Darkhorse
Sam Bradford (St. Louis) – I've listed Bradford here the past two summers and I’m sticking
with him for one more season. Why? His talent has never been in question, and he did rebound
last season to become a top 20 QB, but that is far from where he needs to be in order to become a
solid fantasy starter. WR Danny Amendola is gone, but the Rams added talented TE Jared Cook
to the receiving corps. They also need WR Chris Givens to continue to develop and for WR
Brian Quick to actually break into the starting lineup. These are fairly big IFs, and that is what
keeps Bradford a darkhorse sleeper at best in 2013. Upate 8/6: The corps is young, but they have
worked well with Bradford in camp to date. The big news here is the chemistry developing
between Bradford and Cook. That has me excited about the Rams passing game in 2013.
Carson Palmer (Arizona) – Believe it or not, despite the fact the Raiders won just 4 games in
2012, Palmer still threw for 4018 yards and 22 scores, and yet he just missed the top 15 fantasy
QBs. In Arzona, Palmer will be targeting uber-STUD WR Larry Fitzgerald. This fact alone
makes Palmer a darkhorse sleeper, but second-year WR Michael Floyd is showing promise and
WR Andre Roberts and TE Rob Housler are also decent targets. Bottom Line: If you draft a top 5
fantasy QB, you should feel comfortable in waiting until the latter rounds of your draft to take
Palmer as your backup. Update 8/6: Palmer has been on point in camp thus far, and Fitzgerald is
his usual sterling self. Floyd and Roberts have also worked well. No change in Palmer's status
here!
Ryan Tannehill (Miami) - Tannehill threw more picks (13) than TDs (12) in 2012, but that
should change in 2013. The addition of big-playmaker WR Mike Wallace and veteran WR
Brandon Gibson along with TE Dustin Keller makes Tannehill a great pick for a breakout player.
The question here is just how big a breakout will he make? The answer is big enough to be
listed here as a darkhorse fantasy sleeper... Update 8/6: Tannehill was inconsistent in the HOF
game in his play, but it didn't help matters that Wallace sat out due to a minor injury. It will be
interesting to see how they connect when both are on the field in a preseason game together.
The Long-Shot
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Matt Flynn (Oakland) – Flynn had a big game in place of a resting QB Aaron Rodgers in Green
Bay late in 2011 and signed a nice deal with the Seahawks in free agency. Unfortunately, QB
Russell Wilson pushed him aside early in camp and he rode the pine, only to be traded to the
Raiders this off-season. With QB Caron Palmer in Arizona, th way is paved for Flynn to step
into the starting role. Granted, his experience is limited and his receiving targets aren't much
outside of WR Denarius Moore. Still, there is hope in Oakland that Flynn can develop quickly
into an effective NFL starting QB. And that makes him a long-short fantasy sleeper. Update
8/6: Flynn has taken control of winning the starting job this summer, showing everyone he's the
top QB on the roster.
Jake Locker (Tennessee) - As much as I see the red flags here, the Titans are standing behind
Locker as their starter. His should is said to be 100% healthy and WR Kenny Britt knows he's in
a contract year and is healthy himself. WR Kendall Wright is maturing quickly, and WR Nate
Washington remains on the team, at least at the time of this writing in late June. All this makes
Locker a long-shot fantasy sleeper, just be aware he could also flop and be replaced as the starter
before mid-season. Update 8/6: Locker has been solid in camp, despite a few lapses here and
there. Basically, he remains a long-shot fantasy sleeper.
Brandon Weeden (Cleveland) - Last year's deep sleeper QB is now a long-shot sleeper, as
Weeden is on shaky ground as the team's starter despite showing some potential as the starter last
year. But this is all about winning, something the Brown continued to fail at in most games last
year. WR Josh Gordon is rapidly growing into a star, while WR Greg Little is finally showing
more consistency in his play. The team is raving about new starting TE Jordan Cameron, so
Weeden has enough quality targets to get the job done, the only question is will he? Update 8/6:
Weeden has been inconsistent in camp, but remains the team's starter. Not much else to say
here.
E.J. Manuel ® (Buffalo) - Added 8/6: Manuel is the young rookie the Bills hope can become
their QB of the future sooner than later. Due to an unfortunate trip on a mat, veteran QB Kevin
Kolb is missing critical time if he's to win the starting job. As a result, Manuel is seeing all the
first unit reps and could easily grab hold of the starting job before the season begins. That said,
Manuel is far from Andrew Luck. He's not a sure thing and even if he starts, he is likely to
struggle. But he could also develop quicker than expected. That is why he debuts as a long-shot
fantasy sleeper this week!
The Deep-Sleeper
Chad Henne (Jacksonville) - Henne replaced an injured QB Blaine Gabbert in the latter part of
last year and brought spark to the Jaguars passing game. But this off-season, the Jaguars are still
standing behind Gabbert as their starter. I firmly believe he's not he answer, which will lead to
Henne getting another chance to start. He may not be Peyton Manning, but he's much better than
Gabbert and he's my deep fantasy sleeper at the QB position in 2013. Update 8/6: Henne's listed
as co-starter at QB on the team's initial depth chart, but make no mistake, Gabbert's internal
supporters mean he must flop, while Henne excels if Henne is to have a real chance to start come
week #1.
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RUNNING BACKS
The Obvious
Demarco Murray (Dallas) - Yes, Murray has had multiple injury issues in recent years, but he's
expected to be fully healthy by season's start and he is the workhorse back the Cowboys need
and want him to be. Should he stay healthy, he will outpace his current ADP of 30 (middle of
the third round), making him an obvious fantasy sleeper. Update 8/6: Murray didn't play in the
HOF game, but the team is just being cautious to ensure he's healthy come weeek #1. No change
here.
Steven Jackson (Atlanta) - S-Jax is no longer a St. Louis Ram, and that is a good thing for his
fantasy fans. As an Atlanta Falcon, he'll see many more goal opportunities to produce. And
while he's getting older, he can still carry the load and catch plenty of passes, something RB
Michael Turner didn't do much of with the Falcons. Bottom Line: Many owners think Jackson is
washed up, but I don't. Waiting and grabbing him if he slides to you as a #3 RB is just crazy, but
I've seen it happen! Heck, even as a #2, he's not bad. Update 8/6: Jackson has been everything
the team hoped he would be in camp to date, keeping him a solid obvious fantasy sleeper.
David Wilson (New York Giants) - Wilson was certainly over-hyped last season, and when he
fumbled in week #1, he was barely seen again until late in the season. But RB Ahmad Bradshaw
is gone and RB Andre Brown isn't expected to carry a full workload, meaning Wilson could start
or see most of the pass-catching action on the field. If he learns to block better this summer and
doesn't fumble, he could take over the starting job sooner than later, making him an obvious
fantasy sleeper due to his talent and speed. Update 8/6: Wilson has been solid in camp, as he
continues to learn how to pass block. He's likely to appear as the starter come week #1 on paper,
but will no doubt share the duties with Brown.
Lamar Miller (Miami) - Adios RB Reggie Bush, leaving Miller as the lead dog for the Dolphins
ground game. Yes, RB Daniel Thomas is still on the roster, but most don't see him as a real
threat to Miller. Miller is talented and should earn the starting job this summer, making him a
nice fantasy sleeper and solid #3 fantasy RB option during your draft. Update 8/6: After
fumbling on his first touch in the HOF game, he ripped off runs for 10 and 11 yards before
leaving to ensure health. He's on track to start come week #1!
The Darkhorse
Daryl Richardson (St. Louis) - Richardson slowly pushed RB Steven Jackson aside for much of
2012, and now that S-Jax is gone, the starting job appears his to lose. Although Richardson
didn't make a big splash last year, he did produce enough likely get first crack to earn the starting
job this summer. All he has to do is beat out RB Isaiah Pead, a player suspended for the first
game of the year already. Best of all, he's getting no respect in fantasy drafts, as you can wait
until round #9 or later to take a chance and draft Richardson as your #3 or #4 fantasy RB.
Update 8/6: Nothing is concrete yet, but Richardson appears to have the edge to win the starting
job this summer. Fingers crossed he continues to work hard and stay healthy to nail it down.
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Montee Ball ® (Denver) - The hype machine is starting to go into overdrive already for Ball,
but let's see how he looks in camp before annointing him the new starter. He'll have to beat out
both RB Ronnie Hillman and RB Willis McGahee to take that job, but he certainly has the
pedigree and talent to do it. And if he does, he'll come at a bargain as a 7th round draft pick in
12-team leagues (as of late June). Update 8/6: Ball has yet to overtake Hillman for the starting
job, although the team did get rid of McGahee weeks ago. He's listed as the second unit RB and
there's time left for him to grab the job, but he must impress a lot over the coming weeks.
Rashard Mendenhall (Arizona) - The Cardinals said goodbye to RB Beanie Wells this offseason and RB Ryan Williams is still not 100% coming off a serious shoulder injury. With
Mendenhall basically 100% coming 1.5 years off knee surgery, he is the odds on favorite to win
the starting job. And that makes him a nice #3 fantasy RB option for owners who choose to wait
in their fantasy draft, as well as a solid darkhorse sleeper. Update 8/6: Due to more knee issues
for Williams, Mendenhall has a solid grasp on the starting job, but a recent knee issue has kept
him of the field for a few days. Just something to keep an eye on.
Mark Ingram (New Orleans) – As a big Bama fan, I know this kid well. And I know all the
injuries he's gone through have robbed him of his speed and power. Well, guess what? He's
finally 100% healthy and ready to produce. Best of all, the Saints plan to give him more playing
time, especially in short yardage and goal line situations. Despite the presence of RB Darren
Sproles, I can see Ingram pushing 800 rushing yards with 6+ scores. And that makes him a solid
darkhorse fantasy sleeper on a high-powered offensive scoring team. Update 8/6: Ingram has
looked strong, fast, and fluid in camp to date, which is good news. That said, the first depth
chart has RB Pierre Thomas listed as the starter, but that can change in a hurry.
Shane Vereen (New England) - Added 8/6: Vereen has impressed in camp to date, especially in
the passing game. He is not the starter, but will take over the pass-catching role vacated by RB
Danny Woodhead (now in SD), as well as split out wide, as needed. Bottom Line: The Patriots
are shorthanded without former TE Aaron Hernandez and an injured TE Rob Gronkowski. The
media and many people believe Vereen will catch plenty of passes in 2013 and I agree. That is
why he debuts this week as a Darkhorse fantasy sleeper!
The Long-Shot
LeVeon Bell ® (Pittsburgh) - Bell is a talented rookie, one whom finds himself on a team
without a lead back. RB Rashard Mendenhall is gone, and both RB Jonathan Dywer and RB
Isaac Redman have been very inconsistent in their play. That leaves the door open for Bell to
grab the starting job, provided he earns it this summer. If he does, he could make a great
longshot fantasy sleeper in the middle rounds of most fantasy drafts. Update 8/6: Bell has
impressed in camp to date and seemingly has a lead for the starting job. Dwyer dropped 25-30
lbs to battle for that slot, but the talent is clearly in Bell's corner in this case.
Chris Ivory (New York Jets) - RB Shonn Greene is gone. RB Mike Goodson was signed, but
he's in all sorts of legal trouble, and doesn't seem to have the talent that Ivory has, a player the
Jets acquired via trade from the Saints this off-season. The only catch here seems to be the
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injury prone history that Ivory had with the Saints. If he can stay healthy, he should easily win
the starting job and made a decent impact for fantasy owners taking him in the middle rounds of
their draft as a longshot fantasy sleeper. Update 8/6: The Jets want Ivory to grab the starting job
in camp, but a hamstring issue has him sidelined for most practices to date. As a result, RB Bilal
Powell has coe mto the forefront, seeing all the first unit reps and is currently listed as the starter.
That could change, but it won't unless Ivory gets back on the practice field.
Jonathan Franklin ® (Green Bay) - Franklin was drafted just a few rounds after the Packers
grabbed RB Eddie Lacy in the draft back in April. Most believe Lacy wins the job, and we
agree. That said, there is a chance that Franklin steals it from him this summer. And if Lacy
wins the job, but stumbles out of the gate, Franklin will get his chance to shine. And that is all it
takes to be a longshot fantasy sleeper in 2013... opportunity. Updte 8/6: FRanklin failed to
impress in the team's recent scrimmage, while Lacy blew it up! As a result, Lacy seems to be the
clear leader in the chase for the starting job, but there's still time for that to change.
The Deep-Sleeper
LaMichael James (San Francisco) - James didn't get much of a chance to play his rookie year in
2012. That will change in 2013, but RB Frank Gore remains the solid starter. RB Kendall
Hunter is coming off a serious torn Achilles injury, but should be ready to play week #1. Still,
the 49ers will get James more involved (as a pass-catcher at the very least), and if Gore goes
down and Hunter struggles to get his speed back, James could vault to a starting role sooner than
one might think. That makes him a very interesting deep sleeper at the RB position. Update 8/6:
James has looked solid in camp, but is still likely to be the #3 RB behind Gore and Hunter. That
said, a great game by James and an injury or two could change all that in a hurry.
WIDE RECEIVERS
The Obvious
Randall Cobb (Green Bay) - Last summer, Cobb was one of my lonshot sleepers and he
overperformed. This summer, he's one of the obvious sleepers, only because he'll be competing
for targets from a corps group of WR Jordy Nelson, WR James Jones, and TE Jermichael Finley.
No doubting that Cobb will perform well when he gets his chances, but the real question is how
much they will feature him. Update 8/6: Until today, Cobb has been solid in camp, but a
shoulder injury may sideline him a bit. With WR Jordy Nelson's recent knee surgery, Cobb
figures to be very prominent in this offense as long as he's healthy.
Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City) - Bowe was pretty much worthless the last half of last year, and
was thought to be gone. Then HC Andy Reid was hired and the Chiefs re-signed Bowe. They
also acquired QB Alex Smith, a game manager that can make the big plays now and then. And
Bowe will be the recipient of most of those big plays. His current ADP is middle of the 4th
round, so grabbing him as your #2 fantasy WR is a wise move to make, as the situation dictates
he will rebound provided he stays healthy. Update 8/6: Bowe has had a good camp to date and is
a shoo-in to be the team's #1 WR, keeping him an obvious fantasy sleeper at this time.
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Mike Williams (Tampa Bay) - Did you know that Williams has scored at least 9 times in two of
the past three seasons? He may not be the primary target in Tampa, but he plays well as the #2
WR, seeing less corner coverage. And he makes big catches for scores! Oh, and did I mention
his ADP is the 8th round? That is crazy! You can wait until the 8th or 9th round like I did in the
FF Index Magazine Mock Draft to take Williams as your #4 fantasy WR! That is great obvious
sleeper value! Update 8/6: After getting the extension he wanted, Williams is happy and having
a solid camp. He remains a quality and obvious fantasy sleeper this summer.
DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia) - It's been a slow decline for Jackson statistically since 2009, as
he finished with just two scores in 2012. That should change in 2013, as new HC Chip Kelly
wants to showcase Jackson's talents, meaning to get him the football more. Jackson is more than
ready to show he's worth the big money they gave him last off-season, as he knows if he doesn't
produce in 2013, they can ditch him without consequence next off-season. Update 8/6: Due to
WR Jeremy Maclin's season-ending injury, Jackson is certainly set to be the team's #1 WR
target. Sad to say, his sleeper status is likely a moot point as well, since he'll be going much
higher than first expected in fantasy draft this summer, especially with QB Michael Vick, a guy
whom loves to target Jackson, on track to win the starting job.
The Darkhorse
T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis) - Hilton caught just 50 passes as a rookie, but he made several big
plays and scored seven times. WR Donnie Avery is gone, but the team did sign WR Darrius
Heyward-Bey as the new starter opposite WR Reggie Wayne. But that doesn't mean Hilton's role
won't grow, as he continues to develop. Bottom Line: Wayne is getting older, so don't be
surprised if Hilton takes over as the big playmaker for this high-powered passing offense. That
makes him one great darkhorse fantasy sleeper! Update 8/6: Hilton has had a good camp to date
and more importantly, he's healthy. That can't be said of DHB, whom is out for a while due to a
sprained knee. That makes Hilton an attractive player to target in the middle rounds of your
fantasy draft.
Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh) - Sanders is in prime position to increase his production
replacing departe WR Mike Wallace opposite WR Antonio Brown as a starter in 2013. The
Steelers re-signed him after the Patriots signed him to an offer sheet. He has every reason to be
motivated, as he'll be an unrestricted free-agent come 2014. He's quick, has solid hands, and can
make plays. He may drop the occasional pass, but his upside is just too good to ignore, making
him a solid darkhorse fantasy sleeper in 2013. Update 8/6: Sanders looks good this summer in
camp and seems more than ready to fill the #2 starting WR job for the team. No change here.
Chris Givens (St. Louis) - As a rookie, Givens caught just 42 passes and scroed three times, but
he is seemingly the most veteran receiver to return after the departure of WR Danny Amendola
and WR Brandon Gibson via free agency. He was mostly a one-trick pony with fly pattern
scores, but the Rams are training him to be more diverse in 2013 as one of the lead starting
receivers. QB Sam Bradford is talented enough to make Givens into a solid #3 fantasy provided
both stay healthy and Givens progresses well with his development. Update 8/6: Givens is
making plays in camp and seems ready to seize the #1 WR spot from departed Amendola. I've
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already drafted him in a few leagues this summer and will continue to target him in the latter
rounds of my drafts.
Vincent Brown (San Diego) - Brown broke onto the scene with a big game and score against the
Raiders in the middle of the 2011 season. Unfdortunately, a broken ankle sidelined him for all of
2012, but he's healthy again and is sharing first team reps in OTAs with WR Malcome Floyd
opposite WR Danario Alexander. There is no question when healthy, Browns can produce when
called upon. The question is whether he can stay healthy and whether the Chargers give him a
real chance to start and produce. I think he gets that chance and will get the job done. Update
8/6: Brown missed seven practices in a row due to a hamstring injury, but he returned to action
today and remains a solid Darkhorse fantasy sleeper.
Golden Tate (Seattle) - Added 8/6: I'm not a huge fan of Tate, bu the situation he finds himself
in is positive with regard to his fantasy potential in 2013. WR Percy Harvin (hip surgery) won't
play until at least December and WR Sidney Rice (knee) is an iffy bet to play all 16 games. That
leaves Tate as a possible #1 WR for the team, a young team with QB Russell Wilson at the helm.
Tate is coming off a decent season where he scored seven times. It's not out of the realm to
believe he could duplicate that due to the injuries that surround him. That makes him a
Darkhorse fantasy sleeper for sure this summer.
The Long-Shot
Jacoby Jones (Baltimore) - Jones is the primed to start opposite WR Torrey Smith with WR
Anquan Boldin now a 49ers. He had his chances in Houston and struggled, but did make some
big plays down the stretch as a Ravens in the playoffs last year. If he can become more
consistent in his play and more more big plays, he could become a solid longshot sleeper for
fantasy owners in need later this summer. Update 8/6: Jones failed a conditioning test early in
camp, but is now practicing with the team. He's been inconsistent in his play, but the team still
has hopes he'll nail down the #2 starting WR job this summer.
Mohamed Sanu (Cincinnati) - While catching just 16 passes his rookie season, Sanu managed
to score four times. Unfortunately, a foot injury sidelined him late last year, stunting his
development a bit. Thus far, he's on track for a full recovery and should start opposite WR A.J.
Green for a young and upcoming offensive team. He has solid chemistry with QB Andy Dalton,
something that might actually make him a bit better than a longshot fantasy sleeper, but he fits in
rather nicely right now in this group. Update 8/6: Sanu has been running well in camp to date,
but teammate WR Marvin Jones has realy excelled this summer. Sanu is listed as the starter
opposite Green, but he'll have to battle Jones to hold him off for that job.
Marvin Jones (Cincinnati) - Added 8/6: Jones has been the star of the WRs in camp this
summer for the Bengals. He's battling WR Mohamed Sanu for the starting job opposite WR A.J.
Green this summer. And with Green sitting practices due to a bruised knee, Jones is taking full
advantage making plays left and right. As a result, he debuts on my list this week as a very
interesting long-shot fantasy sleeper.
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Robert Woods ® (Buffalo) - As John Holler says... "Woods has excellent first-step burst off the
line…Has excellent, natural athleticism…Very strong in his cuts and can create
separation…Dangerous in the red zone and always fights for the ball…Consistently highpoints
the ball…Has good toughness and gains every yard he can on most receptions…Has a solid
second gear and can set up defensive backs." Most importnatly of all, WR David Nelson and WR
Donald Jones are gone, giving Woods the immediate chance to step into a starting job opposite
WR Stevie Johnson. The only worry here is whether QB Kevin Kolb or QB E.J. Manuel start and
play consistently well enough to get Woods the ball so he can make enough plays to be a
longshot fantasy sleeper who actually produces. Update 8/6: Woods has had a solid camp to
date, but the QB situation is likely to have more affect on his production than anything else.
Kolb is hurting due to a knee injury, giving Manuel plenty of time to nail down the job.
Unfortunately, rookie QBs seldom blow up, meaning Woods' fantasy ceiling in 2013 could be
limited.
Ryan Broyles (Detroit) - Broyles is a second-year receiver rehabbing from a torn ACL. He
made some noise as the #2 WR before getting hurt and plays for a team with a high powered
passing game. If he can return to health fairly fast, he could regain the #2 starting WR job by
mid-season, if not sooner. His talent certainly makes him a decent sleeper and his longshot
status comes strictly from his torn ACL rehab. At this time, WR Nate Burleson is the #2 WR,
but the Lions have been looking for a better option at the position for a few seasons now...
Update 8/6: Broyles has impressed in camp after coming off a torn ACL. He's not yet listed as
the #2 starting WR, but that could change in the coming weeks.
The Deep-Sleeper
A.J. Jenkins (San Francisco) - As a rookie last year, Jenkisn made no impact at all. He was a
big disappointment, but this year could be different. WR Michael Crabtree (torn Achilles) will
miss most, if not all, of the 2013 season, giving Jenkins a chance to seize the moment and earn
the starting job opposite WR Anquan Boldin. The 49ers spent a high draft pick on him, so they
are rooting for his success. Only time will tell if he steps up his play and wins the job, but he
certainly makes for an interesting deep sleeper at the WR position. Update 8/6: The opportunity
for Jenkins to start remains, but a hamstring injury has limited his practice time. In addition, the
team just signed veteran free-agents WR Austin Collie and WR Lavelle Hawkins. In other
words, Jenkins will have to pick it up quickly if he's to make a real impact in 2013.
TIGHT ENDS
The Obvious
Jared Cook (St. Louis) - Cook has so much talent, yet the Titans wasted most of it. No more.
Cook signed with the Rams this offseason, a team that lost it's top two wideouts. HC Jeff Fisher
promises to use Cook as an integral part of the passing game. As a result, Cook is an obvious
solid fantasy sleeper for 2013. Just be aware that QB Sam Bradford will be making an
adjustment towards targeting a TE often if this is truly the case. That is why Cook is no sure bet
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to succeed this season. Update 8/6: Cook has impressed in camp to date and is developing great
chemistry with Bradford. Hopefully, it will carry over into the real games.
Fred Davis (Washington) - Davis is coming off a torn Achilles tendon, an injury that occurred
just as he was starting to develop some chemistry with RGIII. He's expected to be healthy by
week #1, but questions persist about his ability to play well at a high level so soon. Factor in
RGIII's own serious knee injury and you have an obvious sleeper, but one that can be had in the
latter parts of a fantasy draft. Personally, I draft him as my #3 TE, one with great potential, but
also one that can be cut at any time should the stars not align right for a productive season.
Update 8/6: Davis is running like he was never injured, impressing all the coaches. He's set to
start and could rebound with a big season if he can stay healthy!
Brandon Myers (New York Giants) - Myers broke out in a big way as a Raider last year, only to
leave via free agency to sign as the Giants new pass-catching TE. That's good and bad. With TE
Martellus Bennett in Chicago, Myers is expected to start and see a fair amount of targets, but he
must develop chemistry quickly with QB Eli Manning, much the way Bennett did last summer.
That is not a given, but considering the Giants' situation at wideout, Manning is likey to spend
plenty of time throwing to Myers this summer. Update 8/6: Myers has been solid, if not
spectacular in camp. He's still set to start and is currently healthy. That is all you can ask for
from a Giants TE.
Martellus Bennett (Chicago) - Speaking of Bennett, he's now the starter at TE for the Bears,
making him an interesting sleeper pick. That said, the Bears havn't made good use of their TE in
the passing game for several seasons now since before TE Greg Olsen was traded. It stands to
reason that Bennett will make an impact though, due to the lack of depth at the receiving position
for the Bears. Update 8/6: Bennett has had a solid camp to date and remains on track to start for
the Bears in 2013. The real question here is just how many targets will he get?
Ed Dickson (Baltimore) - Added 8/6: Dickson debuts as an obvious fantasy sleeper since he's
the new starter due to TE Dennis Pitta's season-ending injury. He may not be able to run routes
as well as Pitta, but he can make the tough catches and is oner of the few veteran pass-catchers
the Ravens have on their roster. That makes him an obvious fantasy sleeper.
The Darkhorse
Dustin Keller (Miami) - Keller ditched the Jets for a one-year prove it deal from the Dolphins
this off-season. He joins WR Mike Wallace and WR Brandon Gibson as newbies in the Dolphins
receiving corps. He is very motivated to earn a long-term deal with the team, but must develop
chemistry as well as a significant role in Miami's offense this summer if he's to make a big
impact. That's what makes him an interesting darkhorse fantasy sleeper. Update 8/6: Keller has
had a quiet, but productive camp as the Dolphins new starting TE. He's on track to make an
actual impact in 2013, provided he can stay healthy.
Jake Ballard (New England) - TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm/back surgery) may or may not be
ready to play come week #1 and TE Aaron Hernandez (arrested for murder) was released,
leaving a now healthy Ballard as the expected starter. Now, that is not to say he's got the talent
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of Hernandez to play wideout, but he proved he can make plays when he was healthy as a Giant
in 2011 playing the pass-catching TE role. That fact clearly makes him a darkhorse fantasy
sleeper, since QB Tom Brady needs all the talented and healthy targets he can get! Update 8/6:
There is talk that Ballard won't make the team's final roster, but the good news is that he returned
to practice on Monday and seems ready to prove everyone wrong. If he can stay healthy, he
might just do that!
Zach Miller (Seattle) - After seasons of disappointing results since he left Oakland, Miller
finally found his groove late last year, scoring well in the playoffs. But 2013 is a new season
and the Seahawks acquired WR Percy Harvin. With WR Sidney Rice and WR Golden Tate still
on board, are there enough footballs to go around to make Miller fantasy worthy? Good
question. That is why he's at best a darkhorse fantasy sleeper! Update 8/6: With Harvin OUT
and Rice a bit iffy, the Seahawks need Miller to play and produce, but a foot injury has him out
of camp until possibly the third preseason game. It's not time to give up on him, but that's not
good.
Jordan Cameron (Cleveland) - Adios TE Ben Watson. The Browns are looking to the future,
making Cameron their new starting TE. That sounds promising, but Cameron has been injury
prone in his initial seasons in the league. In fact, he nursed groin pulls this offseason. And then
there's QB Brandon Weeden, the player whom wil be targeting Cameron. He's not exactly QB
Peytron Manning. That said, the team wants Cameron to succeed, so when healthy, he'll get his
chances. Update 8/6: Cameron has been targeted early and often in camp to date, but he needs to
make more tough catches if he's to breka out in 2013. Still, he's on track to improve from his
meager stats of last year.
The Long-Shot
Delanie Walker (Tennessee) - Exit TE Jared Cook. Enter TE Delanie Walker. Walker is a
sleeper for one big reason, he's expected to start on a team that promises to target him early and
often. That said, they failed to do that with Cook last year. Yes, it's a new day and new
playbook, so we shall see if Walker can produce coming out of the shadows of TE Vernon Davis
in San Francisco. Update 8/6: Walker is on the team's active PUP list due to a sore knee and
may miss the next two weeks. The Titans want to use Walker more than they used Cook in
2012, but at this point, that's unlikely to happen unless Walker gets healthy in a hurry.
Coby Fleener (Indianapolis) – Fleener disappointed last season despite having played with QB
Andrew Luck in collage. However, word is that the Colts know they used Fleener too much as a
blocker and promise to get him more targets in 2013. But just how much more with TE Dwayne
Allen also on the roster? That's the issue here. It's all talk until we see it on the field, keeping
Fleener just an interesting longshot fantasy sleeper at best. Update 8/6: Fleener is having the
best camp of his short NFL career. He's making big plays in practice, and seems ready to finally
deliver on that promise of big production as rookie. That said, he'll still have to share targets
with Allen.
Luke Stoker (Tampa Bay) - Exit TE Dallas Clark. That meansa that primary blocking tight end
Stoker gets another chance to ber a psas-catch as well. QB Josh Freeman likes to target his TE,
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and that's the only real reason why Stoker is listed here. That and the fact that this category is
rather limited in 2013. If you draft Stocker, you best be in a 16+ team TE-required league and
take him at the very end of it. Update 8/6: Stocker was on the active PUP list due to a calf injury
until this past Monday. As a result, he's had no time to work on his pass-catching, and remains
focused on his blocking.
The Deep-Sleeper
David Ausberry (Oakland) - TE Brandon Myers didn't re-sign, so Ausberry gets first crack to
fill the void. Too bad QB Carson Palmer is also gone, meaning Ausberry will have to click
quickly with QB Matt Flynn if he's to make any kind of impact at the position in the passing
game. But, hey! It's not like Myers was a household name this time last summer! Update 8/6:
Ausberry has impressed in camp to date and is on track to be the new starter. That said, the QB
play is inconsistent, keeping Ausberry a true deep sleeper at this time.
~ end ~
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2013 Creeper Preview
2013 Mastermind Creepers
UPDATED 8/14/13
(by Michael Nazarek)
Were you one of those fantasy owners who drafted Eli Manning, Darren McFadden, Dwayne
Bowe, or Antonio Gates last year? Unfortunately, these players were some of the many
disappointments due to injuries or other unfortunate circumstances. Just because they didn’t
perform last year, doesn’t mean they will fail again in 2013, but I want to make sure to point out
some of the warning signs which may cause certain players to produce poor fantasy numbers this
year. I remind everyone that the players on the forthcoming list may produce good fantasy
numbers this coming season, but I recommend you think twice before drafting them for your
team this year. Let the buyer beware!
QUARTERBACKS
Phillip Rivers (San Diego) - Don't get me wrong here, Rivers is still a talented QB, but
something is definitely off with his production since the team chose not to re-sign WR Vincent
Jackson. TE Antonio Gates is getting old before our eyes and with the exception of a healthy
WR Vincent Brown and rookie WR Keenan Allen, the Chargers haven't really improved their
recieving corps. Let's just say Rivers will have his moments, but the says of him dominating
fantasy stats are likely over. That is why I don't care for him and I don't see him as anything
more than a decent fantay backup. He is an obvious creeper from a starting standpoint at QB,
and he topped 20 fantasy points in a game last year only four times. Update 8/14: Let's see...
He's lost WR Danario Alexander (torn ACL) for the season and WR Malcom Floyd (knee) for
possibly the first few weeks. And WR Robert Meachem is now a top 3 WR for the team.
UGLY.
Matt Schaub (Houston) – Schaub is like Rivers in the fact that he also only topped 20 fantasy
points just four times in 2012, but he plays in control and is a winner. Unfortunately, the Texans
run more than they pass, so Schaub will often pile up 150 passing yards and one score by
halftime only to end the game with 180 passing yards and that one score because RB Arian
Foster has scored twice in the second half. I don't see the formula changing much in 2013,
keeping Schaub a creeper once again this summer. Update 8/14: No real change here. Rookie
WR DeAndre Hopkins has impressed, but the team remains primarily a running team, limiting
Schaub's fantasy potential.
Joe Flacco (Baltimore) – Flacco is much like Schaub, but has a bit more highs and lows. Last
season, he ranked 14th in most performance scoring leagues that don't favor the QB. He'll
produce a 30-point game, only to follow it up with 8- and 12-point games. And without WR
Anquan Boldin to target, his abilty to create the big play takes a major hit. At best, he's a decent
fantasy backup,m and nowhere near a fantasy starter in 2013. Something tells me RB Ray Rice
will get the majority of the scores in the red zone this coming season for the team. Update 8/14:
Just like Rivers, Flacco has lost a major target in TE Dennis Pitta (hip surgery) for most, if not
all, of the season. Not good.
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Kevin Kolb (Buffalo) - While Kollb is slipping on rubber mats injuring his knee, rookie QB E.J.
Manuel has seized the starting job and all but locked it up after one solid half of play against the
Colts last weekend. Kolb is practicing, but he';s struggling and it's no secret the Bills want
Manuel to win the job since they prefer his talent and running abilities. As a result, Kolb is one
QB fantasy owners should just AVOID this summer.
The Deep-Creeper
Tim Tebow (New England) – You knew this was coming right? The easy call would have been
QB Mark Sanchez in New York, but that is the obvious choice. Tebow signed to battle for the
#3 QB position in New England. Despite that obvious fact, some fantasy football players still
cried to me saying he was an actual upgrade over a fading QB Tom Brady! Are they crazy? You
bet they are! I got one word for anyone thinking about drafting Tebow this summer. AVOID.
Update 8/14: Tebow is barely seeing any QB reps in practice, but he sure signs a mean
autograph!
RUNNING BACKS
Darren McFadden (Oakland) - OVERRATED. Last summer, I was all over Run-DMC as a
fantasy sleeper pick. I learned my lesson quick. After another struggling performance along
with four more missed games, I'm officially done with Mr. DMC. Yes, the Raiders have new
coaches and they have changed their blocking scheme again and plan to feature McFadden
heavily. We've all heard this before. Yes, he'll have a few moments, but considering his true
talent, he should be a top 10 RB, but he averaged only 13 points in PPR leagues last year, good
only for the #22 position among RBs. That simply isn't good enough and we ALWAYS misses
at least 3-4 games per season! All I have to say here is if he slides to you in your draft and you
are in position to take him as your #2 RB, think long and hard about what I have said. And don't
be shocked when you have to bench him due to injury fro several games once again in 2013.
Update 8/14: Run DMC is healthy... for now. He's been OK in camp, but the QB situation
remains in flux and an ankle injury is just a few short steps away for the fragile one.
Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) - Stewart was supposed to be the new starter for the Panthers early
last season, then he saw less touches than RB DeAngelo Williams and got injured. HC Ron
Rivera survived (barely) the offseason and now he's preaching that Stewart will start. Well...
he's still not 100% healthy, Williams took a paycut to stick around and RB Mike Tolbert is still
there, waiting to steal goal touches. Bottom Line: There are too many risks here to like Stewart,
even as your #3 fantasy RB. The entire situation creeps me out! After owning Stewart on a few
teams last year, I'll take a pass on him entirely in 2013. Update 8/14: Stewart is still on the PUP
list and although the team says he's on track to play week #1, everyone has their doubts.
Fred Jackson (Buffalo) - I remember just a few short years ago, Jackson was a solid sleeper.
But times have changed. RB C.J. Spiller has taken over making the big plays, while Jackson has
suffered various injuries. As a result, Spiller is the new starter and workhorse back, while the
Bills plan to use Jackson to spell Spiller to keep him fresh. This is NOT a timeshare situation.
Jackson has become the handcuff for Spiller fantasy owners, meaning Jackson's fantasy value is
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no longer one of a solid (or even decent) fantasy starter, but one of a depth player as well as
insurance. Word of warning, don't over-estimate his value. You'll regret it. Update 8/14:
Simply put, next to Spiller, Jackson is just plain slow. Barring an injury to Spiller, Jackson will
be lucky to see 5-7 touches per game.
Pierre Thomas (New Orleans) - It appeared that Thomas was set up to start and see a significant
role in the Saints offense last year when RB Darren Sproles suffered a hand injury. But that
didn't pan out. Instead, he languished for long periods of time on the sidelines. Well, RB Chris
Ivory has been traded to the New York Jets, but RB Mark Ingram is finally healthy, ready to take
more playing time away from Thomas. That said, Thomas did see first unit reps on OTAs and
mincamps this offseason. Of course, Sproles remains the big threat out of the backfield, while
playing time between Thomas and Ingram is really a mystery. Bottom Line: Ingram is too
talented and young to sit the sidelines while Thomas plays. Look for more of a RBBC between
the two, while Ingram gets most of the goal touches. That makes Thomas a creeper in my book.
Update 8/14: Thomas is nursing a leg injury and Ingram has looked strong, fast, and fluid in
camp. The writing is on the wall here.
The Deep-Creeper
Ryan Williams (Arizona) - Williams has suffered season-ending injuries the past two years that
have cut his seasons short. Even though RB Beanie Wells is gone, don't expect Williams to start
or even make a big impact in the team's running game in 2013. Why? RB Rashard Mendenhall
was signed and installed as the clear starting RB. In addition, Williams admitted that he waqs
scared all last year to carry the football. Williams was coming off a torn patella tendon. "I was
trying to protect my leg instead of trying to protect the football," he said. "It's a scary sight being
a running back and being scared to run the ball. That's something that no running back should
feel." Williams averaged a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry before his season-ending shoulder injury
in Week #5. The Cardinals coaches firmly back Mendenhall, while Williams will have to prove
he deserves any opportunities he gets on the field of play this summer. Update 8/14: Willians'
knee is so sore, he underwent a plasma-rich injection to help speed healing. Healing from what?
Stick a fork in him, he's done.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Miles Austin (Dallas) - OVERRATED. Some fantasy football players still think Austin is the
team's #1 WR. Think again. The emergence of WR Dez Bryant and the reliability of TE Jason
Witten make Austin no better than the #3 option in the passing game. As a result of this
development along with various hamstring injuries, Austin managed just barely four catches for
58 yards receiving over the past two seasons. Yes, he'll still make the occasional big play, but
more often than not, austin disappoints for fantasy owners. There's no reason to believe this
trend won't continue, making him an overrated fantasy creeper in most fantasy leagues this
summer. Update 8/14: Austin has been up and down in camp, so he's not worthless, just a bit
overrated.
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Denarius Moore (Oakland) - There is really no doubting the talent of Moore, but the
environment he finds himself in is the real problem here. The fact that QB Carson Palmer is
now in Arizona is the real issue. During the team's recent minicamp, the media reported that the
QB play by the Raiders was the poorest in many years. QB Matt Flynn has a lot to live up to
based upon a few games playing in Green Bay. If he doesn't step it up and show everyone he's
ready, the other QBs in Oakland appear nowhere ready to play in live action. As a result, Moore
is likely to languish away, lucky to see the type of production WR Larry Fitzgerald experienced
in Arizona last season. And that is certainly not a good thing! Update 8/14: Moore has had an
OK camp despite inconsistent play at QB. That said, I'd still look elsewhere for more potential
from a #1 WR on a weak team, such as Rams WR Chris Givens.
Malcom Floyd (San Diego) - 2010: 700+ yards and six scores. 2011: 800+ yards and five
scores. 2012: 800+ yards and five scores. Sound familar? No matter whether Floyd is seen as a
starter, or not, all he generates is about 800 receiving yards and 5-6 scores. He's never topped
856 receiving yards on his career. Worst of all, he's only played in all 16 games in a season
ONCE during his career. He's an injury prone slick receiver whom produces a big game here
and there, but has never been a consistent #1 WR even when the team needed him to be one last
year after WR Vincent Jackson left and WR Vincent Brown got hurt. Instead, WR Danario
Alexander became the real threat. Bottom Line: Don't fall for this perennial fantasy tease. He
comes with too many risks to trust as anything other than a #5 fantasy WR. Update 8/14: He
strained his knee in painful fashion on Monday and could miss the start of the season, if not
longer. He's also not out of the woods, as he's getting a second opinion on his injury right now.
Stephen Hill (New York Jets) - Hill had a big game to begin his rookie season with two scores,
then pretty much disappeared in 2012, scoring just once while being limited to 11 games due to
various injuries. That said, the Jets chose not to upgrade their WR corps due to salary cap issues.
WR Santonio Holmes (foot) is still not healthy, meaning Hill will be looked upon as a serious
contributor to keep the passing game going in the immediate future. Unfortunately, Hill is have
issues with his surgically-repaired knee. And when he's practiced, he's suffered through a lot of
drops on the field of play. This is not a formula for fantasy success. He's raw, hurting, and
unpredictable. This is THE formula for a fantasy creeper if I ever saw one! Update 8/14: Hill
has actually had a decent camp to date, but poor and inconsistent play at QB continues to hamper
any and all Jets receivers.
Santana Moss (Washington) - Moss has always been a fairly reliable deep threat. That is, when
he's healthy and seeing a lot of targets. That was the case when WR Pierre Garcon couldn't play
last season due to a toe injury. However, once Garcon was healthy enough to play, Moss
became pretty much an afterthought. It also doesn't help that Moss is now 34 years old. If you
think Moss will come anywhere close to the eight touchdowns he scored last year with a healthy
Garcon on the field, you are crazy. RGIII may or may not be ready to play come week #1, but
it's probably a foregone conclusion that this is Moss' final year as a Redskin, that is, provded he
makes the final cut. And don't be surprised if he doesn't! Update 8/14: Moss has had a fair camp
to date, but remains a possible late-summer roster deadline casualty.
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis) - DHB was handed a starting job entering camp, and
although he started the first preseason game last Sunday, he failed to catch the one target thrown
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his way. In addition, he dropped a whopping five passes in practice on Tuesday. Meanwhile,
WR T.Y. Hilton is having the camp of his life, making plays, including a fantastic diving catch
for a score last Sunday in the first preseason game. DHB may actually start come week #1, but
that doesn't mean he'll be productive for fantasy owners.
The Deep-Creeper
Brandon Gibson (Miami) - Gibson was inconsistent as the #2 starting WR for the Rams, and he
was not re-signed, but ended up taking a deal with the Miami Dolphins this offseason. Thus far,
he disappointed during OTAs and minicamps, as he's been forced to learn the slot receiving
position for the team. He dropped several passes and is having trouble with the routes. WR
Armon Binns outplayed him to date. The Dolphins gave Gibson a fairly big contract, so it's
unlikely he'll be cut, but this is certainly not looking good for Gibson to make much of an impact
in 2013, as WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline and TE Dustin Keller figure to get most of the
targets. I say take a pass on Gibson this summer, as there are plenty of better options to be had
in the latter rounds of a fantasy draft at WR. Update 8/14: Gibson has had a few moments in
camp, but there has yet to be a lightbulb moment appear that indicates he'll be a major part of the
passing game.
TIGHT ENDS
Antonio Gates (San Diego) - OVERRATED. Gosh, I hate to admit this, but despite being one
of my favorite TEs in recent memories, Gates just doesn't seem to have it in terms of being a
consistent producer any more. Despite recent reports of Gates looking "fit and quick", we heard
this type of thing last summer too. In 2012, Gates caught more than three short passes in a game
just five times. More often than not, Gates disappeared in the offense without WR Vincent
Jackson instead of becoming a focal point. He's declined in recieving yards in each of the past
three years, a signal he's getting long-in-the-tooth. At 33 years old, this could be his final season
as a starting TE for the Chargers, so draft him with caution. Update 8/14: I had to move him up
due to the wideout injuries in camp for the Chargers, but there will still be times where Gates
disappears for his fantasy owners.
Heath Miller (Pittsburgh) - When healthy, Miller can be a dominant TE, but that is the issue
here. He suffered a torn ACL later last season, an injury that he's nowhere near recovered from.
Miller is not A.P. He's a tough, but slow, receiver, a guy who needs his health in order to be
productive. The Steelers admit it's unlikely that he begins the season healthy, which could lead
to a stint on the in-season PUP list, causing him to miss the first six games of the year. That
would be devastating to any fantasy team that drafts him this summer. Unless we get radically
positive news regarding his injury, it's just best to stay away from him in your draft. Update
8/14: Word is that he'll be activated before the season begins, but there remains no timetable
with regard to Miller actually playing.
Brent Celek (Philadelphia) - Despite catching 57 passes in 2012, Celek scored just ONCE. In
PPR leagues, he topped 10.5 fantasy points just TWICE. He missed one game due to injury and
scored under 10 points 12 times. His role in the new HC Chip Kelly system is very much in
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doubt. QB Mike Vick likes Celek, but he's no lock to start and doesn't call the plays. Bottom
Line: The days of Celek scoring 8 times in a season (2009) are likely over, making him more
creeper than sleeper. Just not getting a good vibe here, as the word AVOID comes flooding to
the forefront. Update 8/14: Celek is actually seeing most of the first unit reps in practice, but
he's been blocking more than seeing targets, making him one fantasy TE to avoid.
Scott Chandler (Buffalo) - Chandler scored four times in his first four games in 2012, but ended
the season with just two more scores. The bad news here is that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is no more.
Veteran QB Kevin Kolb will battle rookie QB E.J. Manuel to start, making Chandler's role in the
offense a question mark. And badder news is the fact that Chandler tore his ACL last December.
The latest update on his condition has him ready to go by week #1, but that is no lock to happen.
Only time will tell, but a player coming off a torn ACL with a new starting QB has more
questions than answers if you draft him this summer. Update 8/14: Chandler didn't play last
week and his role is still unknown. That makes him a big fantasy risk, especially since he's yet
to test his surgically repaired knee in a real game.
Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati) - The Bengals drafted rookie TE Tyler Eifert with the express
intention of making him their TE of the future. He's impressed so much in camp that he could
actually start ahead of Gresham, although both will play. And that means Eifert is more likely to
receive more targets and make more plays than Gresham, making Gresham a fantasy creeper
despite the fact he's still relatively young and still maturing himself. In other words, there are
better options for fantasy owners to consider for their backup TE in 2013.
The Deep-Creeper
Jacob Tamme (Denver) - Tamme is a talent, but he didn't catch the eye of QB Peyton Manning
in 2012 the way he did when they both were Colts. He caught 55 passes last season, but only for
555 yards and just two scores. Guess what? The addition of WR Wes Welker to the receiving
corps makes it more likely that Tamme's numbers will go down even farther. The feel-good
story from 2010 in Indianapolis is just a pipe dream in Denver. It's simply best to avoid this
deep creeper! Update 8/14: No change here. Simply put, there aren't enough passes to go
around to ensure Tamme produces decent numbers, even for a fantasy backup TE.
~ end ~
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2013 Rookie Preview
The Rookie Class of 2013
as of 7/26/2013
(by John Holler)
When it comes to ranking rookies, the biggest issues are whether a fantasy owner is
looking for just this year or long term. For example, at tight end, Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce
may well make the most immediate impact, but given that Dallas, Atlanta, Washington and
Philadelphia all drafted tight ends to eventually replace tight ends that have been critical parts of
their respective offenses. In the end, the replacement tight ends may not have as much short-term
value, but their long-term value could be off the charts.
These are our final rankings of the Class of 2013. With the changes that have been made
to rosters since the draft, these are where we place them for this season with keeper rankings
listed at the end of their profile.
QUARTERBACKS
1. Geno Smith, New York Jets – David Garrard is already out of the way, so all that leaves
between Smith and a starting job is Mark Sanchez – an overpaid, underachieving QB who is at a
crossroads. (KEEPER RANKING: 1).
2. E.J. Manuel, Buffalo – Kevin Kolb isn’t a long-term answer. The Bills spoke volumes when
they stunned the NFL and took him with the 16th pick when most projected Manuel as still being
available when Buffalo was set to pick early in the second round. The Bills already jettisoned
Tarvaris Jackson after giving him $500,000 in March. Kolb, you’re next. (KEEPER
RANKING: 3).
3. Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay – A tall quarterback with upside, Glennon remains well behind
starter Josh Freeman. But, Greg Schiano isn’t the type of coach who accepts mediocrity. As
such, Glennon may get the call sooner than later. (KEEPER RANKING: 5).
4. Matt Barkley, Philadelphia – A USC-trained QB comes from a pro-style college offense to a
college-style pro offense with the Eagles. When the dust settles, he could be the man, but, as
things stand right now, he’s behind both Michael Vick and Nick Foles. (KEEPER RANKING:
2).
5. Landry Jones, Pittsburgh – A player who fits in the Steelers system and isn’t an AARP
member. Given the beatings Big Ben takes, it may be sooner than later that Steelers fans
discover whether or not Jones can get the job done. (KEEPER RANKING: 4).
6. Tyler Wilson, Oakland – Given how quickly the Raiders go through quarterbacks, nothing is
guaranteed. Matt Flynn will be given every opportunity to crash and burn. Terrelle Pryor’s
inability to learn the offense will eventually reduce him to be little more than a Wildcat changeof-pace option. Wilson won’t be there any time soon, but he can do a lot to help his stock.
(KEEPER RANKING: 7).
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2013 Rookie Preview
7. Ryan Nassib, New York Giants – Eli is an ironman so it likely won’t be any time soon. But,
he will immediately become trade bait for a team in need and, if Manning gets hurt, Nassib will
likely jump past David Carr in the pecking order. (KEEPER RANKING: 6).
OTHERS TO WATCH: B.J. Daniels (San Francisco), Brad Sorenson (San Diego), Sean
Renfree (Atlanta), Zac Dysert (Denver),
RUNNING BACKS
1. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay – The Packers running game has been a mess for years. They took a
chance on passing on Lacy in the first round, but, when he was still there in the second round,
they jumped. He has the ability to be a star for years in the Green Bay offense so sorely lacking
in RB talent. His big red flag is injuries, but that’s a risk with all players. (KEEPER
RANKING: 2).
2. Montee Ball, Denver – When the Broncos got rid of Willis McGahee, it spoke volumes to
what they think Ball can bring to the table this year. He has all the makings of the kind of guy
John Fox has historically liked in a running back and could be the centerpiece of the offense that
doesn’t include Peyton Manning. (KEEPER RANKING: 1).
3. Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh – He’s in a crowded backfield on a team that shows loyalty to
veterans. However, he is a prototype back for the system the Steelers run, which will get him in
the lineup. Once he does, it will only go up from there. (KEEPER RANKING: 3).
4. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati – Unless BGE puts on his big boy pants, he’s going to start
losing touches in a hurry. (KEEPER RANKING: 6).
5. Zac Stacy, St. Louis – He is the one player who gets a significant bump from us because of
opportunity. Steven Jackson has dominated the RB scene in St. Louis for a decade and the void
is enormous. Stacy’s speed is going to get noticed. He’s our sleeper pick of this group.
6. Latavius Murray, Oakland – He is likely going to be a guy most fans don’t know too much
about until they see his preseason stat lines. Given Run DMC’s penchant for injury, he could
find his way into a lineup quicker than most. (KEEPER RANKING: 10).
7. Knile Davis, Kansas City – Davis has been injured almost his entire college career, but he is
so explosive he reminds many of new teammate Jamaal Charles. If JC gets dinged, he becomes
the next man up. (KEEPER RANKING: 5).
8. Chris Thompson, Washington – It’s Mike Shanahan, people. That’s why we had Alfred
Morris where we did last year. Likely? No. Possible. Damn skippy. (KEEPER RANKING: 15).
9. Mike Gillislie, Miami – The Dolphins are looking to be more wide open in their offense, but,
if they can have a skilled everyman in the backfield who can run, catch passes and block, he
could find his way through the depth chart in a hurry. (KEEPER RANKING: 7).
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10. Christine Michael, Seattle – He is a hard-nosed runner, but sitting behind Marshawn Lynch
and Robert Turbin isn’t conducive to early success. (KEEPER RANKING: 11).
11. Andre Ellington, Arizona – You can’t teach speed and the new coaching staff in Arizona
may get enamored quickly with him. They didn’t cause the mess the Cardinals running game has
become. They did draft Ellington. (KEEPER RANKING: 14).
12. Johnathan Franklin, Green Bay – You can’t measure heart. Green Bay has a history of
getting the most out of players disrespected on draft day – Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Donald
Driver, Antonio Freeman, Jordy Nelson, etc. Franklin is as hard-nosed a one-cut runner as there
is. He may never be a featured back, but he will make a difference. (KEEPER RANKING: 12).
13. Marcus Lattimore, San Francisco – Injuries will keep him likely out the entire season. He
has no value to one-year fantasy owners, but, if you can carry guys over, he’s a must grab on
potential greatness. (KEEPER RANKING: 4).
14. Joseph Randle, Dallas – The Cowboys running game has struggled for years with injuries –
from Marion Barber to Felix Jones to DeMarco Murray. Randle needs to catch a break, but he is
a third-down blocking/receiving back who could make big strides in a hurry if Murray is again
sidelined. (KEEPER RANKING: 8).
15. Kerwynn Williams, Indianapolis – Vick Ballard isn’t a fluid receiver, Delone Carter is a
power back one-trick pony and Donald Brown is likely out the door. With his skill set, he could
make headway into forcing his way on the field. (KEEPER RANKING: 13).
OTHERS TO WATCH: Kenjon Barner (Carolina), Rex Burkhead (Cincinnati), Spencer
Ware (Seattle), Stepfan Taylor (Arizona), Michael Cox (New York Giants), Jawan Jamison
(Washington), Mike James (Tampa Bay).
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. Tavon Austin, St. Louis – The next Percy Harvin is the mantra being used. If he comes close
to Harvin’s impact on the NFL game, he will be a star for the next decade. (KEEPER
RANKING: 1).
2. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston – He was drafted to be the “other guy” next to Andre Johnson.
He will enter as the best No. 2 option the Texans have had in years and, considering Andre
3000’s age, he could be the No. 1 guy as early as 2014 or 2015. (KEEPER RANKING: 3).
3. Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota – He is raw, but so immensely talented that Minnesota
traded back into the first round for a third pick to take the raw, but game-changing Tennessee
receiver. He’s rated this high for a reason – as much his long-term value as his short-term.
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4. Justin Hunter, Tennessee – The Titans have tripled down in the draft to bolster the receiver
corps with Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright and now Hunter. In an ideal world, all three co-exist,
but, once Britt implodes (again), Hunter will move into his role as a No. 1 threat. (KEEPER
RANKING: 5).
5. Robert Woods, Buffalo – Stevie Johnson is the man in Buffalo, but Woods may be the most
NFL-ready receiver in the league this year. (KEEPER RANKING: 4).
6. Keenan Allen, San Diego – Malcom Floyd is ideally a No. 3 receiver, not a No. 2. Danario
Alexander was a street free agent in October. Things change quickly in San Diego. (KEEPER
RANKING: 7).
7. Aaron Dobson, New England – The Patriots are at a crossroads of their passing game
without Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Aaron Hernandez. There isn’t a job anywhere safe and
those who stand out will get on the field. Dobson has that ability with his size and long arms to
carve out one of those spots. (KEEPER RANKING: 8).
8. Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh – Speed kills and Wheaton fits exactly into the type of role
Mike Wallace had early in his Steelers career. Guys like this often end up getting paid…but
other teams (Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington, Wallace, etc.). (KEEPER RANKING: 6).
9. Josh Boyce, New England – See No. 7, except visualize a replacement for Lloyd. (KEEPER
RANKING: 9).
10. Marquise Goodwin, Buffalo – Eventually will be the anticipated sidekick for Woods, but is
at best a No. 3 guy now – if not further down the early depth chart. (KEEPER RANKING: 15).
11. Quinton Patton, San Francisco – With Michael Crabtree hurt and Randy Moss gone, there
is plenty of room for young players to make an impact. Who was Colin Kaepernick a year ago at
this time? (KEEPER RANKING: 14).
12. Denard Robinson, Jacksonville – A converted college QB, he will be the Tim Tebow the
Jags ownership envisioned. What that gets him will play out over the next couple of years.
13. Kenny Stills, New Orleans – Any times the Saints coaching staff identifies something in a
receiver they like, there’s something to be said for that and makes him a player worth monitoring
in the preseason. (KEEPER RANKING: 11).
14. Steadman Bailey, St. Louis – He may end up being the running buddy for Tavon Austin and
would be rated higher if we had any faith that Sam Bradford could be anything more than a
caretaker type of QB. (KEEPER RANKING: 12).
15. Terrance Williams, Dallas – With Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Kevin Ogletree already
signed and in the fold, using a third round pick here speaks to how much the Cowboys think of
him. (KEEPER RANKING: 10).
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2013 Rookie Preview
OTHERS TO WATCH: Ace Sanders (Jacksonville), Chris Harper (Seattle), Tavarres
King (Denver), Ryan Swope (Arizona), Cobi Hamilton (Cincinnati), Alan Bonner (Houston),
Corey Fuller (Detroit), Justin Brown (Pittsburgh).
TIGHT ENDS
1. Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati – It seemed a strange choice when the Bengals took him with
Jermaine Gresham under contract. Obviously, they see him as a big-play receiver who will be a
big part of their offense, simply because they had bigger needs as the favorite in the AFC North.
2. Zach Ertz, Philadelphia – Brent Celek isn’t getting any younger and Chip Kelly has big
plans for Ertz. He inherited Celek. (KEEPER RANKING: 2).
3. Travis Kelce, Kansas City – Tony Moeaki may have been a palate-cleansing replacement for
Tony Gonzalez, but The Walrus (Andy Reid) wants more. Koo-koo-ka-joob. (KEEPER
RANKING: 4).
4. Gavin Esobar, Dallas – Jason Witten has been a stud for a long time. A long, long time.
Escobar may have been taken higher than a lot of scouts had, but Dallas has a vision for the
future post-Witten and clearly he would appear to be at the front of the line. (KEEPER
RANKING: 6).
5. Jordan Reed, Washington – Chris Cooley is gone and Fred Davis is no guarantee. Shanahan
gets to mold a guy in his own image. (KEEPER RANKING: 7).
6. Dion Sims, Miami – Dustin Keller got the headlines. Sims will get the gravy. (KEEPER
RANKING: 3).
7. Levin Toilolo, Atlanta – He will carry Tony Gonzalez’s pads after every practice in 2013. In
2014? That’s another story. (KEEPER RANKING: 5).
8. Luke Willson, Seattle – He’s not the Wilson with the funky nose right? Pete Carroll has his
reasons. (KEEPER RANKING: 9).
9. Vance McDonald, San Francisco – The loss of Delanie Walker may not seem big, but it is.
OTHERS TO WATCH: D.C. Jefferson (Arizona), Nick Kasa (Oakland), Ryan Griffin
(Houston), Michael Williams (Detroit), Chris Gragg (Buffalo), Mychal Rivera (Oakland).
KICKERS
1. Caleb Sturgis, Detroit – He has to beat out Dan Carpenter, which won’t be a gimme. He may
end up in the NFL, but not necessarily with the Dolphins. (KEEPER RANKING: 1A).
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2013 Rookie Preview
2. Dustin Hopkins, Buffalo – If Buffalo had better scoring prospects, he would be rated No. 1A.
But, Rian Lindell won’t give up his job without a fight. A fifth-round pick used on a kicker is
usually a good sign, but who wants Buffalo’s kicker in 2013? It doesn’t matter if it’s Lindell of
Dustin Hoffman. (KEEPER RANKING: 1B).
RE-DRAFTER ROOKIE RANKINGS FOR 2013
1. Tavon Austin
2. Eddie Lacy
3. Montee Ball
4. DeAndre Hopkins
5. Geno Smith
6. Cordarrelle Patterson
7. E.J. Manuel
8. Justin Hunter
9. Le’Veon Bell
10. Robert Woods
11. Giovani Bernard
12. Zac Stacy
13. Tyler Eifert
14. Keenan Allen
15. Aaron Dobson
16. Markus Wheaton
17. Latavius Murray
18. Zach Ertrz
19. Knile Davis
20. Josh Boyce
21. Mike Glennon
22. Chris Thompson
23. Travis Kelce
24. Marquise Goodwin
25. Mike Gillislie
26. Matt Barkley
27. Christine Michael
28. Andre Ellington
29. Johnathan Franklin
30. Denard Robison
31. Kenny Stills
32. Steadman Bailey
33. Landry Jones
34. Terrance Williams
35. Ace Sanders
36. Gavin Escobar
37. Marcus Lattimore
38. Joseph Randle
39. Kerwynn Williams
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2013 Rookie Preview
40. Jordan Reed
41. Dion Sims
42. Caleb Sturgis
43. Chris Harper
44. Kenjon Barner
45. Rex Burkhead
46. Dustin Hopkins
47. Levin Toilolo
48. Tavarres King
49. Tyler Wilson
50. Ryan Nassib
DYNASTY/KEEPER RANKINGS
1. Tavon Austin
2. Montee Ball
3. Eddie Lacy
4. Geno Smith
5. Cordarrelle Patterson
6. Le’Veon Bell
7. DeAndre Hopkins
8. Robert Woods
9. Justin Hunter
10. Markus Wheaton
11. Marcus Lattimore
12. Matt Barkley
13. E.J. Manuel
14. Landry Jones
15. Knile Davis
16. Giovani Bernard
17. Keenan Allen
18. Aaron Dobson
19. Tyler Eifert
20. Mike Gillislie
21. Mike Glennon
22. Joseph Randle
23. Zach Ertz
24. Dion Sims
25. Josh Boyce
26. Travis Kelce
27. Zac Stacy
28. Terrance Williams
29. Levin Toilolo
30. Gavin Escobar
31. Latavius Murrary
32. Christine Michael
33. Ryan Nassib
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2013 Rookie Preview
34. Johnathan Franklin
35. Kenny Stills
36. Steadman Bailey
37. Kerwynn Williams
38. Andre Ellington
39. Denard Robinson
40. Quinton Patton
41. Jordan Reed
42. Marquis Goodwin
43. Ace Sanders
44. Tyler Wilson
45. Caleb Sturgis
46. Vance McDonald
47. Dustin Hopkins
48. Chris Thompson
49. Chris Harper
50. Luke Willson
~ end ~
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Training Camp Capsules
NFL Training Camp Team Capsules
(by John Holler & Michael Nazarek)
As the preseason begins winding up, the competition for everything from starting spots to
roster spots will be one the line. On some teams, the starters are effectively set in stone, while
others are competitions that will be waged throughout the preseason. This is a team-by-team
breakdown of who are the contenders and pretenders in the battles to make the final 53-man
rosters of the AFC teams.
AFC EAST - 8/16/2013
BUFFALO BILLS
QUARTERBACK – The Bills shocked the NFL world when it used the 16th pick in last April’s
draft to select E.J. Manuel, who few had ranked as a first-round pick. The Bills cleaned the
decks of their incumbent quarterbacks, getting rid of starter Ryan Fitzpatrick and backup
Tarvaris Jackson. While Manuel is expected to take time to develop, the team brought in veteran
Kevin Kolb to be the likely starter for the beginning of the season, although given the ascent of
young QBs in the NFL in recent years, nothing is guaranteed. The No. 3 QB spot is likely going
to versatile Brad Smith, who can run the Wildcat, serve as a wide receiver and be the primary
kick returner. Undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel may land the No. 3 job if Smith focuses on wide
receiver, but, it would seem that, given what Buffalo invested in Manuel, it’s only a matter of
time before he gets the job.
RUNNING BACK – When healthy, Buffalo has one of the most dynamic running back duos in
the league in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. When the Bills drafted Spiller, it lit a fire under
Jackson, who responded by putting together some of the best games of his career. But, when
Jackson got hurt last year, Spiller emerged as one of the best big-play running backs in the NFL.
Spiller is expected to be the primary back with Jackson finally taking a back seat as a thirddown/change-of-pace back. Tashard Choice was re-signed to be the No. 3 back and he appears
to be adept at that sort of role – getting sporadic use and spelling the starters or replacing them
when injured. Zachary Brown will also be in the mix to be the No. 3 RB. Dorin Dickerson,
who doubles as a tight end, will be the primary fullback when the Bills use one, but Frank
Summers and Kendall Gaskins are in the mix. There isn’t a lot of room for depth because,
between Spiller and Jackson, the running game appears to be in good hands.
WIDE RECEIVER – Stevie Johnson is the unquestioned No. 1 guy in Buffalo. Last year, he
became the first Buffalo player to have three straight 1,000-yard seasons and the job has become
finding other receivers to take the heat off of him. But, Johnson suffered a hamstring injury early
in camp and is expected to sit out the remainder of the preseason. With second options Donald
Jones and David Nelson both gone, the door has been opened wide for someone to make an
impact. Brad Smith and T.J. Graham are the only other receivers on the roster with experience
in the Buffalo offense and Smith is a hybrid QB/WR/KR guy. Rookie Robert Woods is
expected to get the first shot at being the No. 2 guy and he is a slick NFL-ready receiver who
could make an impact quickly. Marquis Goodwin, a third-round rookie, will likely be in that
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mix as well if he comes on strong during the preseason. Unproven Da’Rick Rogers has been
getting positive buzz and Marcus Easley can be a big-play receiver if he can ever stay healthy.
The bottom line is that it is still Johnson & Friends at wide receiver, but the Bills are confident
that, if one or two of the young receivers emerges, it won’t be nearly as dire as it has been at
times over the last couple of seasons.
TIGHT END – Scott Chandler has been Mr. September in fantasy leagues and seems to start
seasons strong. But, he is coming off ACL surgery and will have more questions surrounding
him than ever. Lee Smith is a solid backup, but he is much more of a blocking threat than a
receiving threat. Dorin Dickerson, who also plays fullback, likely has a roster spot locked down
and there may be a roster spot open for seventh-round rookie Chris Gragg, who has some
upside. Much of what happens will depend on the faith the team has that Chandler can be a
safety value receiver and red zone threat.
KICKER – Rian Lindell made 21 of 24 attempts last year, but he has limited range and isn’t a
bomber who sends most of his kickoffs too deep in the end zone to be returned. So concerned
were the Bills about his range that they used their sixth-round draft pick on Dustin Hopkins of
Florida State. It is expected to be a spirited battle, but the writing is on the wall that Lindell’s
days in Buffalo are probably numbered after a decade of service to the organization.
Training Camp Tidbits:
1) Rookie QB E.J. Manuel has seized the lead for the starting job and if he continues his solid
play, he'll start no matter what QB Kevin Kolb does.
2) RB C.J. Spiller looks so much faster than RB Fred Jackson it isn't even funny. Jackson is a
strict backup to Spiller in 2013.
3) WR Stevie Johnson returned to limited practice today, which is good news, but he's got a lot
to catch up on with regard to developing chemistry with Manuel.
4) TE Scott Chandler sees his first action in preseason this week. His performance will go a long
way in determining if he has any real fantasy value in 2013.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
QUARTERBACK – Few QBs are going to be under more pressure to produce than Ryan
Tannehill. A starter from Day One, Tannehill struggled as a rookie because he had so little in
the way of viable receivers to throw to. That has changed in a big way this offseason, so the
investment in giving him weapons will increase the pressure on Tannehill to produce quickly.
The Dolphins have made their decision on the starter, but still have former starter Matt Moore
as insurance if Tannehill gets injures or struggle badly. Pat Devlin appears locked in as the No.
3 QB, but, given that experience of Moore and the upside of Tannehill, the Dolphins may opt to
go with just two QBs on the 2013 roster. It doesn’t help his cause that he has been banged up in
the preseason and on the sidelines.
RUNNING BACK – Reggie Bush has never been a full-time featured back, but he came as
close as he ever has in his time with Miami. But, Bush is gone to Detroit and the starting job is
wide open. Daniel Thomas was expected to be the main man, but he has had trouble staying
healthy and whatever advantages he had over Lamar Miller is gone. Miller is a speed back with
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decisive feet, which many believe makes him a better fit in the Miami offense. He will be given
every opportunity to win the starting job and keep Thomas as a part-time back. Fifth-round
rookie Mike Gillislie is a possibility to get playing time because he plays with a physical style
and should have an edge over Jorvorskie Lane, Jonas Gray and Marcus Thigpen, neither of
whom showed much last season. Fullback Charles Clay is more a blocker than a
rushing/receiving threat.
WIDE RECEIVER – When the Dolphins traded away Brandon Marshall, they essentially lost
all of their big-play downfield ability, leaving Tannehill with a group of No. 3 and 4 receivers
forced into duty as starters. That changed in a big way when Miami made a big splash in free
agency, signing speed receiver Mike Wallace to a mega-contract. Wallace is one of the game’s
top deep threats and he gives Tannehill a legitimate deep threat that has been missing in Miami.
The Dolphins weren’t done shopping when they signed Wallace. They followed him up by
signing Brandon Gibson of the Rams. He will compete with incumbent Brian Hartline, who
led the Dolphins in both receptions and yards last year. Also in the mix are young receivers
looking to emerge in 2013, including Chad Bumphis, Rishard Matthews and Jeff Fuller.
Armon Binns was supposed to be in the mix, but he was placed on the injured/waived list after
suffering a knee injury and Matthews has been sidelined and could miss the rest of the preseason
– which hurts his chances of making the final roster.
TIGHT END – The Dolphins weren’t limited to spending just on wide receiver. They addressed
tight end as well, bringing division rival Dustin Keller down from New York. Keller replaces
Anthony Fasano, who led Miami with five touchdowns last season. Keller is a better receiver,
but has had problems staying healthy over the last few seasons. Fasano was on the field because
he was a strong blocker. Fourth-round rookie Dion Sims will compete with Charles Clay and
Michael Egnew for depth positions and, given Keller’s health history, the Dolphins may well
keep all four TEs on the final roster. If Clay stays at fullback, it could open a spot for young
Kyle Miller.
KICKER – Dan Carpenter was expected to be the Dolphins kicker for years to come, but, after
costing the Dolphins two games last year with missed field goals, he faced a challenge in
training camp that he lost. The Dolphins showed they were serious, drafting Caleb Sturgis from
Florida in the fifth round. The two conducted a preseason battle and Sturgis won the war.
1) QB Ryan Tannehill has been up and down in camp and is having trouble connecting with new
WR Mike Wallace.
2) RB Lamar Miller seems on track to start, but the GM likes RB Daniel Thomas. Smokescreen?
3) Wallace is having trouble seperating with the cornerbacks in camp. Not good. Meanwhile,
WR Brian Hartline is locked and loaded as the #2 WR, with WR Brandon Gibson filling the #3
WR role.
4) TE Dustin Keller scored in preseason action last week, and is one guy working well with
Tannehill this summer.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
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QUARTERBACK – Tom Brady has a history of maximizing the talent around him, but 2013
might be the biggest challenge of his career. Without Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez and
Rob Gronkowski coming off multiple surgeries, nothing is guaranteed. The Patriots have a
couple of solid backups in Ryan Mallet and former Philadelphia backup Mike Kafka. Oh yeah,
there’s also some guy named Tim Tebow. There is no challenging Brady for his job, but, after
spending years as one of the elite fantasy QBs in the league, he may be facing the stiffest test of
his career this season.
RUNNING BACK – When the Patriots let BenJarvus Green-Ellis leave via free agency in 2012,
the plan was for Stevan Ridley to take his place as the featured back. Ridley answered the call
rushing for almost 1,300 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns. He’s back as the main RB in the
offense, but the Patriots are known for mixing and matching their running backs. Shane Vereen
and Brandon Bolden will be pushing Ridley. Bolden was almost in a time share with Ridley last
year before injuries knocked him out of the competition and Vereen is expected to pick up some
of the slack left by the free agent loss of Danny Woodhead. The wild card in the Patriots
backfield could be former Buc LaGarrette Blount, who has proved he can be a power back and
a bell cow if needed. Veteran Leon Washington was brought in to be a spot player in the mold
of Kevin Faulk – used as a third-down receiver, occasional runner and kick returner.
WIDE RECEIVER – Without Welker, Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and Woodhead, the Patriots
lose players who accounted for 273 of Brady’s 401 completions last year. The receiver corps is
being completely retooled. Danny Amendola was brought in from St. Louis to replace Welker
and joins Julian Edelman in trying to replicate the 100-plus receptions that Welker could be
counted on. Donald Jones was brought in from Buffalo, but health issues have him looking to
potentially retire after being released by the Patriots. Second-round rookie Aaron Dobson is the
best deep threat the Patriots have had since Randy Moss was traded to Minnesota. Speaking of
Minnesota, former Viking Michael Jenkins has been brought in to be a big target by he was
released Aug. 15, opening the door for undrafted rookie Kenbrell Thompkins. Fourth-round
rookie Josh Boyce also has a chance to make an impact on the offense if he catches on to the
offense quickly. Veteran Matthew Slater also has a chance to make an impact, but he will likely
be down on the depth chart.
TIGHT END – The loss of Hernandez will make a huge impact on the offense, but, if Rob
Gronkowski can come back close to 100 percent, he could catch 100 passes this season. The
Patriots weren’t expecting to lose Hernandez, but the horrific stories of the murder investigation
opened the door for other tight ends on the roster. The team brought in veterans Jake Ballard
and Daniel Fells and still has Michael Hoomanawanui returning to compete for playing time.
The talk of camp has been Zach Sudfeld, an undrafted rookie who has made a big impression on
the coaching staff and could be in line for big things if that continues. The loss of Hernandez is
going to leave a huge void, but the Patriots hope to make up for it with numbers, but everything
is contingent on Gronk coming back strong this season.
KICKER – Stephen Gostkowski has always been a consistent fantasy scorer, primarily because
the Patriots end so many drives with touchdowns on a consistent basis. He is almost a certainty
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to keep the job and, given the significant losses to the Pats offense, he may be counted on to
score more points three at a time than one at a time.
1) QB tom Brady practiced Thursday without issues. He's good to go and dodged a big bullet.
2) RB Shane Vereen will catch most of the passes out of the backfield, but RB Stevan Ridley has
also improved, so don't overlook him in PPR leagues.
3) WR Danny Amendola has been all that and a bag of chips. The chemistry with Brady is oof
the hook, so if he stays healthy, big things will happen.
4) WR Kenbrell Thomkins and TE Zach Sudfeld have real chances to begin the season as
starters. Drafting them late is a smart idea!
NEW YORK JETS
QUARTERBACK – Is there a QB in the league with less job security than beleaguered Mark
Sanchez? He has been vilified by fans, coaches and teammates, which may explain why the Jets
used their second-round draft pick on Geno Smith. Smith likely won’t start Week 1 and his first
battle will be to get over Greg McElroy. But, it seems as though Sanchez is in a no-win
situation. If he has a bad game or even a couple of bad series – anyone who has seen Sanchez
understands that such a prospect is inevitable – the call will go out for Smith. Whether he will be
any better or not is yet to be seen, but there is so much not to like about Sanchez that it seems
like only a matter of time…and a long season for the Jets.
RUNNING BACK – Shonn Greene was never spectacular, but at least he was consistent as a
between-the-tackles back for the Jets. But, when New York made no effort to re-sign him in free
agency, he left for Tennessee – leaving the starting job wide open. Former Saint Chris Ivory and
third-year man Bilal Powell are the frontrunners to win the starting job. Joe McKnight was
supposed to be the primary backup to Greene, but fell behind Powell last year and now looks like
he will be the No. 3 guy again, despite being the fastest running back on the roster. Veteran
Mike Goodson also fits into the mix, somewhere. The battle at fullback will be between veteran
journeyman Lex Hilliard and seventh-round rookie Tommy Bohanon. The Jets weren’t an elite
running team with Greene, but without him, things seem even less stellar.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Jets don’t have a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The closest thing they
have is Santonio Holmes, but he has problems staying healthy and this year’s training camp is
no exception to that rule. He’s been sidelined much of camp and is a big question mark,
especially if the Jets tank early. Speedster Stephen Hill is required to step up his game. If he can
harness his talent, he could be a star, but drops and sloppy route running hurt him in his rookie
season. Jeremy Kerley is a solid slot receiver and will likely be asked to make a big
contribution, since teams will likely be blitzing Sanchez or Smith. Depth will be an issue, but if
speedy Clyde Gates can progress as hoped, the Jets won’t be as destitute as things appear now.
The Jets went retro with the re-signing of Braylon Edwards, but his knees will take care of
themselves by Halloween. He will likely make the team because of need, but they will be in need
again when he collapses – or takes part in a dozen plays a game.
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TIGHT END – For the last several years, Dustin Keller has been the primary tight end in the
Jets offense, but, with him gone, Sanchez has lost his most dependable receiving target. Jeff
Cumberland is expected to take over Keller’s role. Konrad Reuland will likely be on the field
a lot because he’s the best blocker of the group. Depth is a question, with veteran cast-off Kellen
Winslow and youngster Hayden Smith leading the group of players vying for the No. 3 TE
spot. Keller will be missed, but Cumberland might be on the brink of having a breakout year as
the new speed TE in town.
KICKER – Nick Folk is a good kicker when he’s on, but he has found ways to kick his way out
of town when he gets the yips and things go badly for him. As a result, the Jets brought in firstyear man Derek Dimke to compete with him for the job. Folk should be able to hold off the
challenge, but given his history of streakiness, like so many other 2013 Jets, there are no
guarantees as to whether he will be effective or not.
1) QB Mark Sanchez has been fairly bad in camp, but rookie QB Geno Smith (ankle) has been
worse. Look for Sanchez to start come week #1.
2) RB Chris Ivory has looked so much faster than RB Bilal Powell in his return from a hamstring
injury, the Jets know they need him healthy and starting in 2013.
3) WR Santonio Holmes (foot) says he's doing everything he can to get healthy to play ASAP,
but there are no signs that will happen come September.
4) TE Kellen Winslow is holding up well in limited practices. He could be a big contributor in a
struggling Jets offense.
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS
QUARTERBACK – A year ago at this time, Joe Flacco was told to put up or shut up. He put
up, won a championship and made his critics shut up. Flacco got the long-term contract he
needed. He is now entrenched long-term as the Ravens starter and doesn’t have to look over his
shoulder anymore. His backups are just that – Tyrod Taylor is a Wildcat option who can see
sporadic plays called for him, but he isn’t a challenge to Flacco’s job. Neither is veteran Caleb
Hanie, who has the third QB spot all but locked down. The Ravens now have to prove their
mettle with the bull’s eye on their backs. One thing is certain: Flacco will get drafted higher than
he ever has in his career.
RUNNING BACK – In an era where the run game has become more de-emphasized, Ray Rice
not only had more than twice as many carries as any other back on the team, he finished tied for
second on the team in receptions with 61 – and the two other guys in the mix (Anquan Boldin
and Dennis Pitta) aren’t on the roster. Rice got spelled more last year because of the emergence
of Bernard Pierce. He is a pure power downhill runner who the coaching staff can’t keep off the
field. His role increased as the season went along. The free agent signing of Pro Bowl fullback
Vonta Leach should only make both Rice and Pierce better. Anthony Allen provides depth at
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running back and the Ravens love Kyle Juszczyk, who serves as combination H-back/fullback.
There are some young challengers, but, barring injury, this should be Baltimore’s party of five.
WIDE RECEIVER – The loss of Boldin can’t be stressed enough. He not only saved his best
for the postseason, but there are few stronger receivers in the league. Torrey Smith had already
taken over the role of the big-play receiver, he averaged more than 17 yards per reception and
caught eight touchdowns – an average or more than one for every six catches. Jacoby Jones,
who never got his chance to be a full-time player in Houston, gets his chance to shine in
Baltimore. He’s never been in this role in six years, but is getting it now. If he fails, Tandon
Doss, Deonte Thompson and David Reed are the next in line to get additional playing time.
Doss has had too many easy drops and Reed has found it hard to stay healthy, so neither of them
has a solid track record to give the coaches or Flacco confidence enough to expect. The Ravens
have a slew of young receivers with upside, with seventh-round rookie Aaron Mellette and
Tommy Streeter, a pair of big receivers to offset the speed of Smith and Jones, likely have the
best shot of making the final 53-man roster. Veteran Brandon Stokley is likely to get a long
look given the lack of experience among the WR corps.
TIGHT END – Dennis Pitta was supposed to be poised for a huge season. Coming off a 61catch, seven touchdown season, he was expected to play a bigger role this year as a move-tight
end who could line up outside or in-line. With Pitta gone, Ed Dickson is a mid-range target
whose role is sure to increase, but he has a hamstring injury and will likely miss the start of the
season. When Pitta went down, the Ravens quickly snapped up veteran Visanthe Shiancoe, who
had four years of experience as an elite blocker with the Giants and as a receiver with Minnesota.
The team also signed Dallas Clark, who is looking to keep his career alive. Prior to his injury,
Pitta and Dickson were the only TEs on the roster. Don’t be surprised to see Kyle Juszczyk to
get more time as a TE. However, Dickson now needs to improve his blocking or Shiancoe will
quickly start seeing more time at the position.
KICKER – Justin Tucker was a rookie with the weight of the world on his shoulders last year.
While Matt Stover was no great shakes as a distance kicker, he made so many field goals from
inside of 50 yards, Ravens fans were spoiled. The post-Stover era had been rocky at best, but
Tucker made 30 of 33 field goals and isn’t being challenged in camp. He is a lock, which is
always a positive for fantasy owners.
1) QB Joe Flacco is struggling to find healthy quality receivers in camp and during the preseason
outside of WR Torrey Smith.
2) RB Ray Rice has been quiet this summer, but he's healthy and ready to carry a bigger load,
especially in the passing game.
3) WR Jacoby Jones has not followed up his big playoff performance with quality practices this
summer. Not good.
4) With TE Ed Dickson sitting, don't be shocked to see TE Visanthe Shiancoe starting and TE
Dallas Clark backing him up come week #1.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
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QUARTERBACK – In two seasons, Andy Dalton has taken his team to the playoffs twice and
made the Pro Bowl. He has almost his entire 2012 offensive teammates back and has added
depth at tight end and running back in the draft. He is a sleeper fantasy player who is getting
better and his 3,669 yards and 27 TDs are the benchmark to beat this year. The preseason battle
is for the No. 2 job – former Cardinal John Skelton and in-house candidate Josh Johnson.
Johnson is versatile and, if the Bengals opt to go with Wildcat looks, he’s the guy. Skelton was
claimed on waivers from Arizona and has 17 career starts. If either is an option, the Bengals are
in a lot of trouble across the board from the fantasy perspective.
RUNNING BACK – There are two schools of thought on BenJarvus Green-Ellis. One is that
he is a between the tackles slug who doesn’t produce enough to be a fantasy starter. The other is
that he’s a 1,000-yard rusher in the mold of what Marvin Lewis has always done. But, Lewis has
never had a speed threat like rookie Giovanni Bernard. Viewed by some as a change-of-pace
back, if given an opportunity, Bernard could end up being the featured back if given an
opportunity. Bernard Scott used to be the change-of-pace back, but has a significant injury
history that has left coaches and fantasy owners alike frustrated. Cedric Peerman is more of a
special teams ace that a consistent threat in the running game and started the season on the PUP
list. Fullback John Connor is likely to win a roster spot, but his offensive value is minimal.
WIDE RECEIVER – A.J. Green is entering his third season, but has already ascended to
superstar status. Last year, he caught 97 passes for 1,350 yards and 11 touchdowns. He is an elite
receiver who is only getting better. But, the Bengals have other weapons as well. Mohamed
Sanu was a big threat in the second half of the 2012 season and is expected to have more of a
role, whether in the slot or on the outside. Marvin Jones is a player the Bengals love, but he
needs to show a lot more consistency before he can emerge as a big-play threat. Andrew
Hawkins caught 51 passes as a slot receiver last year and has built a solid rapport with Dalton,
but he is sidelined with an ankle injury and may be lost for part or much of the 2013 season.
Brandon Tate and Ryan Whalen may be competing for one roster spot, but more likely both
can make the team, since Tate is a strong return man and Whalen is an excellent route runner
adept at finding soft spots in zone defenses. The Bengals look to be locked and loaded and the
young receivers in camp will have to wow the coaches to make the final roster.
TIGHT END – Ever since Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez emerged as a playmaking
tight end tandem, other NFL teams have tried to replicate that success. The Bengals may be the
latest on that list. The team already had one of the better TEs in the league in Jermaine
Gresham, who has been selected to the last two Pro Bowls, so it came as some surprise when
the Bengals used their first-round pick in April’s draft on Notre Dame’s Tyler Eifert. Eifert can
make plays down the field and, combined with Gresham, could create a dangerous TE tandem.
The Bengals also have a big blocking tight end in Orson Charles, so there will be no shortage of
plays involving tight ends this season.
KICKER – Mike Nugent had a solid season in 2012, making 19 of 23 field goals and is
expected to keep his job, but it is troubling that two of his last three seasons have been cut short
due to injury. However, with the Bengals now the consensus favorite to win the AFC North, if
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Nugent sticks, he could be a very strong sleeper candidate to be one of the leader kicker scorers
in the league.
1) QB Andy Dalton has been solid this summer and seems ready to up his production if the
players around him do their job.
2) BGE will start come week #1, but if he struggles, the Bengals won't hesitate to expand the role
of rookie RB Giovani Bernard accordingly.
3) WR A.J. Green (bruised knee) practiced today and said he's 100%. Oh, he looked great too.
4) WR Mohamed Sanu has an edge for the #2 WR position, but WR Marvin Jones is making his
case for it too.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
QUARTERBACK – Brandon Weeden didn’t have a great rookie season, but he didn’t have a
ton of weapons surrounding him in the passing game and his struggles were understandable.
However, he doesn’t have a firm hold on the starting job because he will face a challenge from
veteran former starter Jason Campbell, who is looking to reclaim his career and, with the
Browns coaching staff on the hot seat, they won’t stick with Weeden if he doesn’t produce.
Brian Hoyer is a last resort as the No. 3 QB
RUNNING BACK – While there are questions in the passing game, there is no doubting that
Trent Richardson has a toughness and skill about him that he can be a big-time NFL fantasy
back. It’s just unfortunate that he is on a team so poor that he struggles to get openings to run
through. Montario Hardesty is a decent all-around back and is the primary backup to
Richardson and is a solid change of pace option. However, after getting a knee scope, he is
expected to miss the remainder of the preseason and is a question mark for Week 1. His absence
has opened the door for Dion Lewis, who was mired on the depth chart in Philadelphia and is
finally getting his opportunity. Chris Ogbonnaya is solid receiver and blocker, so, when TRich gets a rest, he will be in line to see some field time himself. New offensive coordinator
Norv Turner has a history of incorporating the fullback into the offense, which could be good
news for Owen Marecic and Brad Smelley and their roles in the offense. Few teams have one
back who hogs so many carries – Richardson had five times as many carries as No. 2 Hardesty –
and that shouldn’t change this year.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Browns haven’t invested heavily in the wide receiver position in
years. The result is fairly obvious. They have developed talent, but don’t have a true go-to
receiver. Josh Gordon was selected in the 2012 supplemental draft and met all expectations,
catching 50 passes for 805 yards and a team-high five touchdowns. But, he will miss the first two
games of the season with a suspension. He is joined by another big receiver in Greg Little (6-2,
220), whose 53 receptions led the Browns last year. As if they didn’t have enough big receivers,
they got bigger in the offseason, adding 6-5 WR David Nelson, formerly of the Buffalo Bills.
Speed merchant Travis Benjamin averaged almost 17 yards per reception last year and is
expected to take on a bigger role as a deep threat this year. One big addition may be the smallest
of the team’s receivers. Davone Bess was a fixture in Miami as a slot receiver and, with all the
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big, physical receivers in Cleveland, he could be the most impactful receiver on the teams in
PPR formats. The Browns still don’t have a legitimate No. 1 receiver (they hope Gordon
develops into that guy), but they have a solid group of receivers that could make up for the late
of a go-to guy.
TIGHT END – The offensive coaching staff likes to stress the play of tight ends, but Turner
clearly doesn’t have an Antonio Gates on his hands. Jordan Cameron has all the tools to be a
very good NFL tight end, but had marginal production in college and hasn’t done much in two
NFL seasons to get fantasy owners overly excited. Free agent signees Kellen Davis and Gary
Barnidge are expected to compete for playing time, but neither of them has enough of a track
record to be viewed as good sleeper picks. Expect the Browns to use their tight ends and a
surprise player may emerge, but there isn’t anyone that has the can’t miss type of tag that puts
them on most fantasy owners’ radar.
KICKER – For the first time in the history of the Cleveland Browns Version 2.0, they won’t
have Phil Dawson. A kicker since their expansion inaugural season, he was allowed to leave via
free agency thanks to his hefty salary. As a Pro Bowler, it seemed like a callous thing to do,
considering that Dawson was widely acknowledged as a locker room leader. Veteran Shayne
Graham, who was last seen in Houston, and undrafted rookie Brandon Bogatay, who replaced
Blair Walsh at Georgia, are in a competition for the kicking job and, given that the team was
willing to let a Pro Bowl veteran leave, anything is possible.
1) QB Brandon Weeden has played well enough to start and will eventually be named the starter.
2) RB Trent Richardson ran well in Thursday's game, while RB Dion Lewis also ran well,
seemingly having locked up the handcuff position to T-Rich. Too bad he broke his leg, so look
for RB Brandon Jackson to get first crack to replace him as the primary backup.
3) WR josh Gordon remains the class of the wideout corps. He'll be solid when he returns from
suspension in week #3.
4) TE Jordan Cameron scored twice Thursday night and may be a fantasy sleeper no more!
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
QUARTERBACK – Over the years, Ben Roethlisberger has been his own worst enemy. He is
so big and athletic that he doesn’t takes sacks without a fight. What happens in that scenario is
that two or three players are needed to take him down, most of them coming at him with a
running start. Injuries have been a part of his decade with the Steelers and he has the battle scars
to prove it. While he has never been a consistent fantasy producer, he is the heart and soul of the
Steelers offense. Rookie Landry Jones is likely going to be the No. 3 QB, but, considering the
Steelers used a fourth-round draft pick on him, barring injury he will make the roster. With
Charlie Batch finally gone that means that veterans Bruce Gradowski and John Parker Wilson
will be competing for what will likely be one spot. But, until he breaks down, this is Big Ben’s
team. Period.
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RUNNING BACK – It was expected that Rashard Mendenhall was going to be the running back
for the next several years, but injury and ineffectiveness coming back from it led to the Steelers
allowing him to leave and opening the door to a full-blown competition for playing time. Rookie
La’Veon Bell, taken in the second round of the draft, will be given every opportunity to win the
starting job, but there is a lot of competition. There are in-house candidates Jonathan Dwyer,
who led the team in rushing last year and is a one-cut power runner, and Isaac Redman, a
between-the-tackles banger in the tradition of the type of players that the Steelers have
stockpiled over the years. Free agent signee La’Rod Stephens-Howling is expected to replace
Chris Rainey as a change-of-pace back after Rainey was released following numerous off-field
incidents. But he will face a challenge from Baron Batch, but he didn’t show much last year
when given an opportunity. Fullback Will Johnson will likely lock down the final roster spot
WIDE RECEIVER – When the Steelers made the decision to sign Antonio Brown last year,
the ripple effect was obvious. The team chose Brown over Mike Wallace when it came to giving
a long-term contract extension. A wedge was created and Wallace left via free agency. Brown is
adept at finding open seams in throwing lanes and getting yardage after the catch, but it can be
argued he isn’t a true go-to receiver. In order to keep the receiving corps intact, the Steelers
matched an offer sheet given to Emmanuel Sanders by the New England Patriots to keep him
on the team. The Steelers went to free agency and the draft to meet their needs, signing veterans
Jerricho Cotchery and Plaxico Burress in free agency and drafting Markus Wheaton and
Justin Brown in the third and sixth rounds, respectively. Cotchery is expected to be a slot
receiver that can be a safety valve when Big Ben is under pressure, while Burress’ career is
likely over after suffering a torn rotator cuff in the preseason opener. Wheaton provides the
speed that was lost when Wallace left and, at 6-3, Brown is a big receiver that Todd Haley has
thrived with in the past. Not having Wallace will hurt, but not cripple, the Steelers passing game.
They’ve seen stars leave before and have always survived and thrived by developing new stars.
TIGHT END – The big question here is the health of Heath Miller – short-term and long-term.
In his ninth year and coming off a torn ACL, Miller had a career year last season, but his
reliability on the field is in question for 2013. Matt Spaeth is more of a blocker than a receiver,
but is familiar with the “Steeler way” having played for the team from 2007-10. However, he’s
out two months with a foot injury and will start the season on the PUP list. The battle will be for
the third (and possibly fourth) tight end is wide open with candidates David Paulson, who
played all 16 games as a rookie and made five starts, fifth-year man David Johnson (who started
training camp on the PUP list) and youngsters Zach Pianalto and Jamie McCoy – both of
whom saw limited action last year. Michael Palmer was signed off waivers this month to give
the Steelers a camp body due to injuries. Miller’s health is the key. Steelers tight ends are going
to catch passes. If it’s Miller, he may again lead the team in receptions. If not, it’s a wide open
competition.
KICKER – Shaun Suisham had a career year last season, making 28 of 31 field goals last year,
but he has a history of streakiness. While he is likely going to win the job, he is being challenged
by Daniel Hrapmann, a strong-legged kicker from Southern Miss. The Steelers always seem to
get kicker points that reward fantasy owners. Even if you don’t like (or know) the names, they
get theirs.
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1) QB Ben Roethlisberger was solid this summer, staying healthy, which is a big thing for him.
2) Rookie RB Le'Veon Bell (knee) is having some recent knee issues that warrant some concern.
3) WR Antonio Brown seems primed to take over the go-to WR job that WR Mike Wallace used
to have.
4) TE Davis Paulsen is the current starter, so don't expect much from this position until TE Heath
Miller returns, which might not be until October.
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON TEXANS
QUARTERBACK – Matt Schaub is a decent quarterback, but his name is never mentioned
among the elite quarterbacks. Why? Because he doesn’t deserve to be in that class of
quarterback. But, he is a perfect fit in the Houston offense. He is a solid backup fantasy
quarterback, but he is in his element with the Texans. He has his backup band of T.J. Yates and
Case Keenum behind him and neither of them is viewed as a legitimate to his job, although
Yates played well when given the opportunity in 2011 when Schaub got injured. He has some
talent in his receiver corps, but, like Troy Aikman two decades before, when you have Emmitt
Smith (or Arian Foster), you don’t get many TDs inside the 10-yard line, which makes him a
fantasy backup.
RUNNING BACK – Other than Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster would be viewed as the most
dominant running back in the NFL. He is a touchdown machine and the offense is built around
him. He started training camp on the PUP list, but is expected to be 100 percent by Week 1. So
dominant is the Houston running game, that they may end up keeping just three running backs on
the roster. Ben Tate, who was supposed to be the starter before an injury in the preseason
opened the door for Foster, is a very capable backup. Former Jaguar Greg Jones is set to be the
starting fullback. The Texans have some camp bodies in place to allow Foster and Tate to not
take a beating. If they do keep a fourth RB, it will likely either be Cierre Wood or fullback
Tyler Clutts, but that is far from a guarantee.
WIDE RECEIVER – Andre Johnson is a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, but, at age 32
with an injury history, Andre 3000 is at a career crossroads. He is a workout machine who is in
as good a shape as receivers 10 years younger. Every defensive coordinator who plays the
Texans pays him so much attention that he is almost constantly double-teamed because Houston
never had a viable No. 2 option. The Texans finally addressed that glaring need by drafting
DeAndre Hopkins, who is expected to stretch the field and be the big-play receiver Kevin
Walter never was. Hopkins is likely to step into the starting lineup immediately. DeVier Posey
was supposed to be the guy, but an Achilles injury late in the 2012 season has him a question
mark in 2013 although he claims he will be ready for Week 1. The slot is likely to be manned by
Keshawn Martin, who caught just 10 passes last year, but the team is high on him. The same is
true about Lester Jean, who has talent, but not a proven track record. Sixth-round rookie Alan
Bonner is the leading candidate to be the fifth receiver. If Johnson stays healthy, he could have
another big season, but Hopkins is the man to have long term.
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TIGHT END – Owen Daniels led the team in touchdowns last year with six and went to the Pro
Bowl. If he can stay healthy, he could be in line for a big season, but health is always in issue.
The coaching staff is very high on Garrett Graham, who could be a deep sleeper pick if
Daniels gets hurt, because Graham is a better blocker and quietly hauled inn 28 passes as the No.
2 guy. If Daniels gets dinged, their numbers could be reversed. Make no mistake that the team is
going to miss James Casey, who was a Mr. Everything in terms of being a tight end/fullback/Hback hybrid. That can’t be overestimated. He did a lot without the numbers to back it up. The
won’t replace him, but sixth-round rookie Ryan Griffin has the fast track to take his roster spot.
KICKER – Randy Bullock was supposed to have his coming out party last year. Taken with a
premium pick for a kicker last year, he suffered a groin tear in, of all things, a charity basketball
game. Last year, Shayne Graham scored 138 points (second in the AFC) and Bullock is a better
kicker. He has 120 points almost guaranteed and, given that the fish the league champions feed
off of likely don’t recognize the name because of his injury. Advantage you!
1) QB Matt Schaub has had a quality camp. He'll make plays here and there, but the team
remains a running team.
2) RB Arian Foster may return to practcie next Monday, which is plenty of time for him to crank
it up and get in shape for the season.
3) Rookie WR DeAndre Hopkins has been all the team hoped for, a true playmaker, one whom
should be able to start opposite WR Andre Johnson come week #1.
4) Second-year PK Randy Bullock has been solid in his first full camp since injuring his groin
last summer.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
QUARTERBACK – You have to tip your hat to Andrew Luck. There’s always pressure on a
QB taken No. 1 overall. When you’re replacing Peyton Manning, turn up the burner to increase
that heat. Not only did he replace Manning, he took the moribund Colts franchise back to the
playoffs. Fantasy owners have reason to be excited about Luck, but the excitement should start
in 2014 or 2015, not 2013. His 4,374 yards and 28 TDs (23 passing, five rushing) are the
benchmarks for this season to surpass. Those are good numbers, but he’s not an every-week
fantasy starter despite lofty rankings. The good news is that, barring injury, he will play pretty
much even down because neither veteran Matt Hasselbeck or youngster Chandler Harnish are
anything more than insurance policies. It’s all Luck all the time. But, like those RG3 enthusiasts
who expect to cut their teeth by waiting at QB and letting guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers
and Peyton Manning get away with Luck in mind will be disappointed more times than owners
who snap up the stars. Next year is another story. But for 2013, buyer beware too high.
RUNNING BACK – One of the biggest questions those in the fantasy industry have is rolling
the dice on who emerges as the bell cow in this crowded situation. It was a question before
Podiatrist Dream Teamer Ahmad Bradshaw showed up with the resume that would say he
should be the starter if (ever) fully healthy. Donald Brown was supposed to be the man when
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the Colts squandered a late-first round pick on him. Between injuries and inconsistency, he can’t
be counted on – which is never good for a running back. Vick Ballard earned the respect of the
staff last year replacing Brown and has the edge over him coming into the season. Delone
Carter is a wild card in the group because he has the advantage of being a goal-line/shortyardage bulldog who could sop up some fantasy gravy like a biscuit in limited use. Technically,
the Colts don’t use a fullback (tight end/H-back types suffice), so it wouldn’t be out of the realm
of possibility for the team to keep just four RBs.
WIDE RECEIVER – Reggie Wayne is a Hall of Famer by any measure. When Peyton
Manning bailed, it was thought Wayne might follow him to Denver. But, he stayed in Indy and
cemented his legend with 106 receptions. While the locals knew what Wayne was capable of,
even the hard-cores had to be pleasantly surprised by the emergence of rookie T.Y. Hilton. He
caught 50 passes and led the team in touchdowns (7) and average per catch (17.2 yards). His role
will likely expand with Luck this year. Behind them, things are wide open with veteran Donnie
Avery out of the picture. Darrius Heyward-Bey was supposed to enjoy a career resurgence, but
injury has left him dead in the water for the time being. He is expected to be sidelined with a
sprained left MCL. Second-year man LaVon Brazill is going to have to be the next man up after
catching just 11 passes as a rookie when he returns from a four-game suspension to start the
season. The competition will be fierce behind the Big 3 (or Big 2 and Brazill). Nathan Palmer,
Griff Whalen and/or massive 6-6 Jeremy Kelly better be ready. The Colts are going to need
them.
TIGHT END – In an ideal world, it was simple: Coby Fleener is a Pro Bowl candidate and
Dwayne Allen is a red zone receiver and ferocious blocker. When the Colts doubled down in the
2012 draft, that was the plan. The problem was Fleener, a college teammate of Luck, was injured
early and Allen got a foot in the door – which quickly turned to a shove to open it completely.
Allen caught 45 passes while Fleener caught just 26. The roles were expected to be reversed, but
both Fleener and Allen have been sidelined with preseason injuries, opening the door for yet
another usurping of the throne for guys like seventh-round rookie Justice Cunningham. The
Colts might keep four TEs, which could be good news for Dominique Jones. It will be a
productive position, but the depth chart hasn’t been where it was expected yet and may not be
again this year.
KICKER – Adam Vinatieri is 40 and in the last year of his contract. More than likely this is it
for the ring-bearer of NFL kickers. But, it’s his job to lose and, by next year, he will probably be
gone. If you want a run with him, do it now. He’s not Mr. Right. He’s Mr. Right Now.
1) QB Andrew Luck has shown no signs of a sophomore slump this summer.
2) RB Ahmad Bradshaw is finally starting to practice, and the team loves him, but don't discount
RB Vick Ballard as a handcuff.
3) WR T.Y. Hilton is playing and practicing lights out! Meanwhile, DHB dropped five passes in
practice one day this week! UGH.
4) TE Coby Fleener is getting mad love from the coaches and seems ready to show everyone
what he can do.
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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
QUARTERBACK – The Jaguars selected Sunshine Blaine Gabbert far too high in the draft
and he has appeared overwhelmed ever since. Expected backup Chad Henne ended up throwing
more passes and was more consistent. It is a make or break year for both of them and the Jaguars
need to make a decision as to the future of the franchise. Gabbert has been given two years to be
the man and has yet to show he can be. One more bad season and the new coaching regime isn’t
going to along Gabbert to bring all of them down. The team signed undrafted free agent Matt
Scott, but he isn’t expected to make much of an impact. He is competing with Mike Kafka, who
was claimed off waivers from the Patriots in June. Gabbert has one last chance to prove worthy
of being a lottery draft pick and, if he doesn’t, his career could be all but done.
RUNNING BACK – After a miserable 2012 season, Maurice Jones-Drew is entering the final
year of his contract, so there is every reason to believe that he will be motivated for the final
contract of his career – whether with the Jaguars or someone else. When healthy, he is the
centerpiece of the Jacksonville offense – both as a runner and receiver. Free agent Justin Forsett
will likely be the primary backup and third-down back, while MJD 2012 replacements Montell
Owens and Richard Murphy are in the mix. At fullback, Greg Jones is gone, so Will
Ta’ufo’au and undrafted rookie Lonnie Pryor will be competing for what may be just one
roster spot. The is a watershed year for MJD, who will be looking to cash in if he can have a big
year, whether it’s to stay in Jacksonville or seek his fortune elsewhere.
WIDE RECEIVER – Justin Blackmon was drafted to be the main man in the passing offense,
but the emergence of fellow rookie Cecil Shorts was the big news. Shorts led the team in
receiving yards (979), average per catch (17.8 yards) and touchdowns (seven). Still, the plan is
for Blackmon, a dominant college player, to become the go-to threat in the mold of Calvin
Johnson, Andre Johnson or Michael Crabtree. The team has brought in plenty of players to
compete. Jordan Shipley replaced Blackmon when he was suspended and finished with 23
catchers. Former Brown Mohamed Massaquoi was signed in free agency and the Jags used
fourth- and fifth-round draft picks in April to take Ace Sanders and Denard Robinson. Both
have the quick feet and versatility to force their way on the field, especially Robinson, who could
end up serving as a quarterback in Wildcat situations, and the Jaguars suddenly have gone from a
position of weakness to one that they have committed to improving. Whether they have the QBs
to get the job done is another story, but they can’t blame the lack of firepower as a reason why
they won’t succeed.
TIGHT END – Marcedes Lewis had one big season in 2010, but has struggled to be a fantasy
force before or since. The new offensive outlook with Jedd Fisch (the third different offensive
coordinator in the last three years for the Jaguars) will get a chance to be more of a focal point of
the offense. But, learning so many new systems and new terminologies is a difficult process.
Depth behind Lewis in nonexistent with competition being provided by Isaiah Stanback, Matt
Veldman, Allen Reisner and Ryan Otten among the half-dozen players competing for backup
spots. Aside from Lewis, there isn’t much production expected out of this position, but it should
be monitored during the preseason to see who emerges and who sinks because there is the
potential for someone to step up and become a fantasy threat.
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KICKER – Josh Scobee has been the Jaguars kicker for years and has done a solid job despite
not getting too many opportunities. A 10-year veteran, he has proved himself, but, with so few
points expected to be available, he will struggle to be enough of a consistent scorer to get drafted
in most leagues.
1) QB Blaine Gabbart has struggled during the entire camp. Don't be surprised if he's eventually
released or traded, as this new coaching staff has no investment in him.
2) RB Maurice Jones-Drew has looked like MJD this summer, meaning he's 100% healthy and
ready to go.
3) WR Cecil Shorts (calf) should return to practice next week and see some action in the third
preseason game to get into game shape if practice goes well.
4) TE Marcedes Lewis is sick and tired of the poor practices. He called a team meeting and
ripped into his teammates. Unfortunately, Lewis can't throw the football to himself.
TENNESSEE TITANS
QUARTERBACK – The Titans are committed to Jake Locker, but his injury history is already
become a trouble spot. He separated his left shoulder last year and, when he would come back, it
would get aggravated. He had surgery in the offseason, but now faces a new challenge. Matt
Hasselbeck had provided veteran competition, but, when Buffalo released Ryan Fitzpatrick, the
Titans jumped on him. With a wealth of starting experience, he could provide legitimate
competition and not simply be a veteran backup working with the younger Locker. The No. 3
spot is going to be a battle between young veterans Rusty Smith and Nathan Enderle. Locker
has the confidence of the organization, but until he can stay healthy, he’s far from a sure thing.
RUNNING BACK – Chris Johnson is a dominant running and a threat to take any carry to the
house, but has a history of being upset with the organization. After rushing for 2,000 yards, he
held out until he got a new contract and didn’t much care for the team signing free agent Shonn
Greene. However, Greene isn’t competition. He’s a between-the-tackles banger who ran for
1,000 yards each of the last two seasons. CJ2K had an excellent season last year considering how
injury-plagued his offensive line was, but Greene provides another weapon to keep Johnson from
taking a beating. Depth is thin with return man Darius Reynaud and second-year man Collin
Mooney leading the pack for backup spots – what carries there may be. Quinn Johnson will be
fullback, but his job will be as a running bodyguard for Johnson, not a fantasy threat of value.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Titans keep stockpiling talent at wide receiver, but they have yet to
find the right formula for success. Kenny Britt is immensely talented, but hasn’t been able to
stay healthy or keep out of trouble off the field. If he gets one more strike, he could face a
lengthy suspension because the league is fed up with him. Last year’s first round choice Kendall
Wright led the team with 64 receptions last year and is expected to have a bigger role this year
in the Tennessee offense. The team went back into the draft well to pull out speedy Justin
Hunter in the second round, giving them yet another young stud as an option. To go along with
the young talent, Tennessee has a wealth of veteran receivers that can provide leadership and
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depth. Nate Washington has never emerged as a go-to receiver, but he has been a valued locker
room member and consistent offensive contributor. Former Texan Kevin Walter is in the mix as
are Matt Mariani and Damian Williams. Mariani’s chances took a hit when he suffered a
shoulder injury that could have him unavailable for the start of the season and Walter underwent
back surgery that has him sidelined as well. How it all shakes out will be determined in the
preseason, but there is no shortage of talent for a team looking to emerge as a dual pass/run
threat.
TIGHT END – The Titans had an emerging star in Jared Cook, but he left via free agency to
rejoin with former Titans coach Jeff Fisher. As a replacement, they signed versatile 49er Delanie
Walker, who could have an immediate impact and be a strong fantasy sleeper. But he remains
on the PUP list and with a knee injury and will miss the preseason. In-house backups Craig
Stevens and Taylor Thompson are familiar with the system and should be locks to make the
roster, but expect Walker to get the lion’s share of opportunities in the pass offense.
KICKER – Rob Bironas has been around for a decade and isn’t going anywhere any time soon,
since he was re-signed in the offseason. If the Titans offense makes the kind of strides so many
expect they will, Bironas could be a solid late-round fantasy draft pick.
1) QB Jake Locker has been up and down in camp, which is not a good thing.
2) RB Chris Johnson has shown great improvment in camp, as he looks quicker and catches
passes better.
3) WR Kendall Wright is having a nice camp, as he looks to improve upon his solid rookie
campaign.
4) TE Delanie Walker (knee - PUP) said he may not play at all this preseason. Meanwhile, TE
Jared Cook is laughing to himself in St. Louis.
AFC WEST
DENVER BRONCOS
QUARTERBACK – When Peyton Manning chose Denver over San Francisco last offseason,
he helped make the Broncos an immediate Super Bowl contender. He has a couple of good years
left in him and, if last season was any indication, there are big things still to come. He threw for
4,659 yards and 37 touchdowns and those are the expectations for this season. While Manning
continues to pad his Hall of Fame resume, the Broncos continue to stockpile potential
replacements. Last year it was second-round pick Brock Osweiler. This year, it was seventhrounder Zac Dysert. But, if history tells us anything, it’s like being a backup shortstop to Cal
Ripken. You only play during garbage time, because Manning a frontrunner for the MVP this
season and the Broncos are looking Super Bowl.
RUNNING BACK – When the Broncos got rid of Willis McGahee, it opened the door wide
open for the competition that is coming at running back. Rookie Montee Ball is going to get
every opportunity to win the starting job, but it won’t be handed to him. Knowshon Moreno
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likely saved his job last year when McGahee went down and there is depth with speedy receiver
Ronnie Hillman and veteran Lance Ball. The fullback position is manned by Jacob Hester,
who is more of a blocker and short-yardage back than a receiving threat. While Ball is the
favorite to win the starting job, don’t be surprised to see a committee backfield in which the hot
hand stays on the field from one game to the next.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Broncos already had the dominant tandem of receivers in the AFC
with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, who combined to catch 179 passes for 2,498 yards
and 23 touchdowns. Both were dominant outside receivers that put up numbers like Manning had
in the heyday of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. When the Broncos added Wes Welker,
they added a player that could legitimately give Denver three 1,000-yard receivers. They could
put up the kind of numbers unseen since Warren Moon was throwing darts in Houston. Backup
depth is provided by Andre Caldwell, Trindon Holliday and rookie Tavarres King. There
likely won’t be enough room for the backups to get more than cursory action barring injuries.
This could be the deepest, most talented corps of receivers in the league and Welker just made a
strong group stronger.
TIGHT END – The position hasn’t been all it could be, but it continues to show signs of
improvement. Last year, Denver added both Joel Dreessen and Jacob Tamme and drafted
blocking specialist Virgil Green. Dreessen is out the remainder of the preseason after having his
knee scoped in early August. All three would be locked in loaded, which could be bad news for
Julius Thomas if they decide to keep three TEs. A converted basketball player, the odds are that
the Broncos will give him another year to develop into a potential big-play tight end.
KICKER – Matt Prater would appear to have his job locked down, but he struggled late last
season – missing seven of his last 23 field goal attempts, including an awful kick in the playoffs.
He is in line for some big points with this offense, but if he gets a case of the yips again this year,
the goodwill he has engendered over recent years could fade away quickly.
1) QB Peyton Manning looks stronger than he did this time last year. He feels great too!
2) RB Ronnie Hillman is holding onto the lead back job by a hair, but it appears a RBBC will
win out here.
3) WR Wes Welker has integrated into the system with no real issues at all.
4) Don't expect TE Jacob Tamme to see many targets each week, as the wideout position has
dominated in camp this summer in the passing game.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
QUARTERBACK – One of the first moves Andy Reid made when he took over was to trade
for Alex Smith to replace the released Matt Cassel. Smith, who made great strides the last two
years before losing his job to Colin Kaepernick, could easily post career numbers this season
because he is going to be throwing a lot of short, timing passes – which is his strength. Backing
him up are former Saints backup Chase Daniel and young journeyman Ricky Stanzi. While
Daniel has potential and knows how to run a high-octane offense from backing up Drew Brees
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with the Saints, but Smith is going to have carte blanche in this offense, which is something he
rarely had in San Francisco. He could be a sleeper of big proportions this year.
RUNNING BACK – There were questions surrounding Jamaal Charles coming off of a
significant injury, but he responded with 1,500 rushing yards and 35 receptions. In Reid’s
offense, he could dwarf the kind of numbers Brian Westbrook put up over the years. Third-round
rookie Knile Davis has good speed and moves, but weighs 235 pounds and could be a nice
complement when the Chiefs need to grind the ball on the ground. Last year, Shaun Draughn
was a solid backup both as a runner and receiver and will be looking to carve out his niche of the
offense. Depth will be a battle between special teamers Nate Euchus and Cyrus Gray. The
fullback in a Reid offense doesn’t get a lot of love, but they have decent depth with Anthony
Sherman expected to be the primary FB. If Charles is healthy, he could in for a monster year
and the rest will be competing for time when J.C. gets a breather.
WIDE RECEIVER – There was a lot of discussion that Dwayne Bowe might get moved before
last year’s trade deadline, but he’s back, re-signed and expected to make a big impact – at least
he’s talking tough about having a monster season. Depth around him has always been a concern.
Dexter McCluster is a Mr. Everything in the Chiefs offense, returning kickoffs, catching 52
passes last year and rushing a dozen times. He likely won’t be a full-time player, but, when he’s
in the game, he sees a lot of action. The Chiefs have been waiting for Jon Baldwin to emerge
and, as he enters his third season, big things are expected. In need of a veteran to work the slot
while big men Bowe and Baldwin patrol the outside, the signed Donnie Avery in free agency to
provide the short-passing spark that has been a trademark of Reid offense. Devon Wylie caught
just six passes last year, but his value as a return man will likely win him a spot. There are a halfdozen players looking for depth at the position, but there only be room for one of them to make
the roster.
TIGHT END – The Chiefs already had a pair of decent tight ends in Tony Moeaki ans free
agent signee Anthony Fasano, but neither of them is viewed as big-play seam-stretching
receivers. They’re more of a threat in the red zone and to move the chains. But, the addition of
third-round rookie Travis Kelce could change that. He has the best speed of the three and could
be used in designated packages to free him up down the middle and make an immediate impact.
Moeaki and Fasano will likely be battling for short passing TDs and all three could make minor
impacts on the offense.
KICKER – Ryan Succop has a sketchy season last year, missing too many easy field goals for
his long-term security. He has a strong leg, which is good on kickoffs, but Reid was spoiled by
David Akers for so many years that he may have a short leash with the erratic Succop.
1) QB Alex Smith has been a game-manager in camp, which is what he was in San Francisco.
2) RB Jamaal Charles is set for a huge season in terms of touches if he can stay healthy.
3) WR donnie Avery figures to be the #2 WR, but don't expect much productiom ffrom that role.
Smith is far from Andrew Luck.
4) The tight end position is muddled with both TE Tony Moeaki and TE Anthony Fasano
claiming their role. AVOID it on this team.
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OAKLAND RAIDERS
QUARTERBACK – The Raiders have had a revolving door at quarterback for years and the
results have been obvious – Commitment To Excrement. They got raped by the Bengals to
acquire Carson Palmer and ended up shipping him off in the offseason after less than two years
as the starter. He has been replaced by nomad Matt Flynn, who had one huge game with Green
Bay that earned him a free agent deal with Seattle – only to have the rug pulled out from under
him by Russell Wilson. He is backed up by athletic Terrelle Pryor, who could be the next big
thing in Oakland if the Raiders opt to go with a read-option look. The Raiders actually looked to
the future by drafting Tyler Wilson in the fourth round. He’s clearly a project QB, but has some
upside and time to learn while the Raiders go with yet another new quarterback.
RUNNING BACK – Darren McFadden has been seeing his value dropping markedly over the
last three years and hit bottom last year – averaging just 3.3 yards a carry. His injury history has
made him a question mark for any fantasy owner and requires the Raiders to consider all of the
depth at running back on their roster. Marcel Reece is a fullback in name only, although he lines
up there when not deeper in the backfield. He is one of the most valuable fullbacks in the league
and showed it last year when he averaged 4.6 yards a carry on 59 attempts and caught 52 passes.
He is the No. 2 back on the roster and if Run DMC gets injured, he can take over that role. Depth
is provided by rookie Latavius Murray, a speed back who fits the Raider M.O. He could be a
deep sleeper if McFadden continues his longstanding habit of missing time. Rashad Jennings,
who was also oft-injured in his time with the Jaguars, Jeremy Stewart and Taiwan Jones will
be competing for the final roster spots. As always, the Raiders run game has been defined by
McFadden – both good and bad.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Raiders finally gave up on Darrius Heyward-Bey and have moved
on. Denarius Moore is going to get every opportunity to be the No. 1 receiver and has showed
flashes of potentially being special. Jacoby Ford missed all of last season, but is a big-play type
who is dangerous both as a receiver and a return man. If he comes back at full strength, the
Raiders have the chance to make some big plays. Juron Criner wasn’t used a lot last season as a
rookie, but has the ability to make the Wow Factor play and could find himself on the field a lot
more after a strong offseason. Rod Streater caught 39 passes last year and has a role in the
offense. There is a wide open battle for the final roster spot or two among more than a handful of
young, unproven talents, so there may be a chance someone emerges, but, given the defined roles
the others are expected to have, there likely isn’t room for any of them to make a very significant
impact in the passing game. Joshua Cribbs was signed in the spring to be a combination
receiver/returner, but has no assurances of making the team.
TIGHT END – It’s been a long time since the Raiders have had an impact fantasy tight end and,
from the looks of things, it likely won’t be in 2013. Brandon Myers was as close as the Raiders
have had in more than a decade and he bolted via free agency. Third-year man David Ausberry
has good hands and decent speed, but has yet to break out. He is going to get that chance this
season and could quietly make some noise. The Raiders drafted two tight ends – Nick Kasa in
the fourth round and Mychal Rivera in the sixth – to create competition with veteran incumbent
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Richard Gordon and Brian Leonahardt for depth. It’s a young, unproven group waiting for
someone to emerge. Myers did, but he’s gone. Look for someone – most likely Ausberry – put
himself on the fantasy map.
KICKER – Sebastian Janikowski is still around since he was taken in the first round of the
1998 draft. He was re-signed at the start of the training camp, so, while he will get a challenge,
it’s his job. He still has a cannon leg and can reward owners with long field goals, but will the
Raiders be potent enough to give him the kind of scoring opportunities he needs?
1) QB Matt Flynn has clearly been the best QB in camp, but that might not be saying much, as
coaches are worried he won't be accurate in 25+ yard throws. In other words, his arm is one of
the weakest in the league.
2) Run DMC is healthy, but the loss of the starting left tackle could hinder his running game in
2013.
3) WR Denarius Moore is looking to be more consistent in 2013, but if the QB play is worse, he
won't get his wish.
4) TE David Ausberry is leading the race to start at TE. Who? My thoughts exactly!
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
QUARTERBACK – Philip Rivers has been losing receivers left, right and sideways. Whether
its been free agent losses, trades or injuries, Rivers has seen his weapons fall like rib bones at a
4th of July picnic. They still have veteran backup Charlie Whitehurst, who serves as Rivers’
caddy and best friend. Rookie Brad Sorenson is a project from Southern Utah, but was a steal in
the seventh round.
RUNNING BACK – Few running backs have been as frustrating to fantasy owners as Ryan
Matthews. He has plenty of talent, but one thing that can be said about him – whoever owned
the previous year doesn’t care if someone else gets him this year. He is once again the main man,
but the biggest difference might be the arrival of former Patriot Danny Woodhead. He was used
sporadically in the New England offense, but could be used a lot more in San Diego’s offense.
Ronnie Brown, who caught almost 50 passes last year, was resigned as another veteran presence
who will see more action if Matthews goes down. There are a handful of young RBs competing
for the backup positions, but fullback isn’t a question. Le’Ron McClain doesn’t do much in the
offense, but he is a dominant blocking fullback, which gives him unseen value the is very
important to the San Diego offense.
WIDE RECEIVER – Danario Alexander was supposed to be the main receiver in the offense
despite being on the roster for just 10 games and starting six. He was in line for a big season
before he was shelved with an ACL injury in training camp. Now it’s back to Square One (again)
for the Chargers and it doesn’t look good. Malcom Floyd was supposed to be the other starter,
but he was injured too. However, there is no structural damage and he is expected to be back
early in the regular season. The only explainable reason that Robert Meachem is still on the
team is that $14 million of his $23.5 million deal was guaranteed and it would cost the Chargers
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as much to dump him as keep him. His 14 receptions last year speak to how bad that move was.
Vincent Brown missed last season with a broken ankle and is hoping to return at 100 percent
because he will be needed given the other injuries. If there is a potential breakout star in Keenan
Allen. Taken in the third round of the draft, he has the pro-ready skill set that will be needed
with the depletion of the corps and could jump over Meachem and Brown in a hurry. A bunch of
undrafted rookies will battle veterans Deon Butler, Eddie Royal and Richard Goodman for the
final spots. One has to wonder how many receivers they can lose and still have Rivers happy – or
the offense scoring enough points to win.
TIGHT END – Antonio Gates is a Hall of Famer, but his production continues to drop and his
fantasy value has diminished despite still be Rivers’ favorite receiver. He scored seven
touchdowns last year, but they came on just 49 catches in 15 games. The needle is trending
downward and the best of Gates is in the rearview mirror despite his ability to make the big
catch. The team has depth with John Phillips and lightly-used 2012 draft pick Lardarius
Green. There are four young TEs in camp looking to land the fourth spot on the depth chart – if
four spots are even available. If you’re hoping to get the Gates of pre-2011 vintage, you’re likely
going to be disappointing, but he could be a value pick if taken where most rankings have Gates
at.
KICKER – Nick Novak was given a four-year contract in the offseason and they are
committing to him as their man of the future. Nate Kaeding had some good years in San Diego,
but, given the problems with the Chargers offense, it may not be the best idea to make a fantasy
investment in Novak like the Chargers did with their money.
1) QB Philip Rivers didn't get much tme to throw against the Bears Thursday night. If that trend
continues, this team will be very ugly to watch in 2013.
2) RB Ryan Mathews actually didn't look half bad against the Bears on the ground, gaining 45
yards in 9 carries. And he's healthy too!
3) WR Robert Meachem had a big catch that went for 40 yards. Too bad it came against the
3rd/4th team defense!
4) TE Antonio Gates caught three early passes and seems to be the safety valve that Rivers will
use when pressured.
THE NFC - 8/9/2013
As the preseason begins winding up, the competition for everything from starting spots to
roster spots will be one the line. On some teams, the starters are effectively set in stone, while
others are competitions that will be waged throughout the preseason. This is a team-by-team
breakdown of who are the contenders and pretenders in the battles to make the final 53-man
rosters of the NFC teams.
NFC EAST
DALLAS COWBOYS
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QUARTERBACK – Few players are as polarizing as Tony Romo. At times, he is the
reinvention of Brett Favre. He will complete passes most QBs won’t throw, but his struggles
seem to be magnified because when he is bad, he is very bad. The Cowboys gave him a contract
extension, but haven’t ruled out the possibility of having someone in place in the event he
struggles or gets hurt. Veteran Kyle Orton has carved out a career for himself as a capable
backup and spot starter. First-year man Nick Stephens is the frontrunner for the No. 3 job.
RUNNING BACK – The days of Marion Barber and Felix Jones are dead and gone. The new
sheriff in the backfield remains DeMarco Murray. When healthy, he has the ability to be
special, but he hasn’t been able to make it through a full season since early in his college career.
The difference is that there is no lead-pipe-lock as a backup. Fifth-round rookie Joseph Randle,
who has a very similar skill set to Murray, is being counted on to be the No. 2 running back. The
only other guaranteed spot belong to eight-year veteran fullback Lawrence Vickers if he is 100
percent returning from back surgery. With a new emphasis being placed on the running game,
his role is expected to increase. The Cowboys may only keep four running backs, so young
players Lance Dunbar and Phillip Tanner may be battling for one roster spot. Dallas has a
history of keeping five running backs, so they may all make the team, but, if there is a battle
somewhere else that isn’t settled, it may come at the expense of a fifth running back.
WIDE RECEIVER – This is the year Dez Bryant is expected to take over the mantle of being a
No. 1 receiver and start earning the honor of wearing No. 88 – a number Michael Irvin made
famous. Bryant has battled injuries and immaturity, but, when he has his focus on the game,
there are few players better in the NFL. Miles Austin has been a popular fantasy choice over the
last few years, but his inability to stay healthy has tested the depth of the Cowboys receiver
corps. With Kevin Ogletree gone, there will be a wide open battle for the Nos. 3-5 spots on the
roster. There is a lot of positive buzz surrounding third-round rookie Terrance Williams, but he
will have to battle for time with young receivers Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, Anthony
Armstrong and Danny Coale. It didn’t help that Williams suffered a concussion early in
training camp. With Harris expected to fill the role of punt and kickoff returner, his role in the
offense may be limited, but there is plenty of field time available for those who make the final
roster.
TIGHT END – Jason Witten remains an elite tight end and his 110 receptions last year were
evidence of that. With Witten nearing the end of the line – speculation is that he will only play a
couple more seasons – the Cowboys were aggressive in drafting his replacement – Gavin
Escobar – in the second round of the draft. Escobar has the ability to stretch the field and make
the highlight film catch, but will need time to develop. Third-year man John Hanna has the
edge for the No. 3 tight end because of his blocking ability. Former Panther Dante Rosario has a
chance to make the team, but, given Witten’s role in the offense, Dallas may not keep four TEs.
KICKER – In his first two seasons, Dan Bailey has proved to be a reliable kicker with both the
ability to boom the ball on kickoffs and make clutch field goals. His job isn’t in doubt barring
injury in the preseason.
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1) QB Tony Romo has been solid in camp, so don't worry about that little cyst he had removed
from his back. He's fine.
2) RB DeMarco Murray is trying to shake the injury prone label, and while he didn't play in the
HOF game, he says he's 100%.
3) WR Dez Bryant has mad chemistry with Romo. Look for a HUGE season from him in 2013!
4) WR Miles Austin has been inconsistent in camp, making tough catches, then dropping easy
ones. Hey! At least he's healthy!
NEW YORK GIANTS
QUARTERBACK – Eli Manning, like his older brother, has become something of an ironman
in the NFL. He takes his lumps, but is always there on Sunday. He struggled badly at times last
year, but he is the unquestioned leader of the offense and nothing about that has changed. What
might change is the job security of David Carr. The former No. 1 overall pick for the expansion
Texans, Carr has found a home in New York as Manning’s caddy, but, when the Giants moved
up in the fourth round of April’s draft to take Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib, the questions began.
Tom Coughlin is a coach who prefers to keep just two QBs on the roster, so, barring a change of
heart this year, Carr’s days may be numbered.
RUNNING BACK – In 18 months, the Giants have rid themselves of both Brandon Jacobs and
Ahmad Bradshaw and what they have left is a full-blown competition for spots in the new RBBy-Committee approach being taken. David Wilson had a tough rookie season when fumbling
got him benched by Coughlin, but, with Bradshaw gone, Wilson is the leader in the backfield.
He had just 78 rushes as a rookie, but his speed was on display and he has the potential to be a
big-time producer. Andre Brown is more of power runner and earned his money near the goal
line, scoring eight rushing TDs to lead the team. Pushing for time as the Nos. 2 and 3 tailbacks
are speedster Da’Rel Scott and injury-prone former Redskin Ryan Torain. Seventh-round
rookie Michael Cox will have a hard time making the team. Fullback Henry Hynoski is an oldschool throwback and likely won’t be in the mix for carries or receptions, especially given that
he had surgery in May on his right MCL.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Giants have two superstar talents in Victor Cruz and Hakeem
Nicks. Cruz earned a long-term extension with his big-play ability and, when healthy, few wide
receivers are as dominant as Nicks. He’s coming off a season marred by knee and foot injuries,
which makes the numbers Cruz produced (86-1,002-10) even more impressive, since teams were
focused on stopping him. With Domenik Hixon gone, the Nos. 3 and 4 jobs are open for the
taking. Second-year man Rueben Randle appears to be the frontrunner. He has good hands and
can fight for the ball, which is something Manning looks for and will get him more looks. The
fourth receiver spot is likely boiling down to a battle between former Panther Louis Murphy,
who can play both on the outside or in the slot, and slot receiver Jerrel Jernigan. While the
names have changed, depth shouldn’t be an issue. They may have a difficult time cutting down
to five wide receivers, which could be good news for unheralded youngsters Kris Adams and
Kevin Hardy and recently re-signed Ramses Barden.
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TIGHT END – The Giants allowed Martellus Bennett to leave via free agency, which opened a
big hole because the tight end position has been so important to the Giants offense in recent
years. The G-Men signed former Raider Brandon Myers, who made a big splash in Oakland last
year as Carson Palmer’s safety valve – catching 79 passes to lead the team. Myers isn’t much of
a blocker, so Bear Pascoe is likely to be on the field a lot. The intrigue to follow in the
preseason is among unproven Adrien Robinson and Larry Donnell. Robinson is an exceptional
athlete, but played on three snaps on offense last year and Donnell is a 6-6 prospect who, if he
turns the right heads, will end up on the roster. They will likely be battling for one roster spot.
KICKER – The Giants made no effort to re-sign Lawrence Tynes, instead opting to sign 11-year
veteran Josh Brown. He won’t simply be handed the job. That point was made clear by the team
bringing in David Buehler (who was later cut) and Jake Rogers to compete for the job, but
Brown remains the favorite to win the job, both is not a lock.
1) QB Eli Manning has been sharp in camp and looks forward to the challenge of getting the
Giants back to the Super Bowl.
2) RB David Wilson may be listed as the starter, but RB Andre Brown is a big load and runs well
inside. This will be a RBBC, so watch out for Thunder (Brown) and Lightning (Wilson) in
2013!
3) With WR Hakeem Nicks (groin) nursing a sore groin, WR Rueben Randle has really stepped
up and seems a lock to fill the #3 WR role. SLEEPER ALERT!
4) TE Brandon Myers is looking like a great fit for the Giants after they lost TE Martellus
Bennett to the Bears in free agency. Manning has already developed quick chemistry with him.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
QUARTERBACK – Perhaps no decision new head coach Chip Kelly will make is how the QB
position will break down – both in the long-term and short-term. Michael Vick is the incumbent,
but his history of injuries has become a trend that has forced coaches to have a Plan B. Kelly has
Plans B, C and D in place. He has two young QBs that are pocket passers – Nick Foles and
rookie Matt Barkley. Foles is expected to push Vick for the starting job, but will be at a
disadvantage if the Eagles fully incorporate the pinball style of play that he had at Oregon.
Barkley was viewed as a late-first or early-second round prospect, but, when he fell into the
fourth round, the Eagles couldn’t pass him up and drafted him. The wild card may be Dennis
Dixon, who started for Kelly at Oregon. He can run the read option better than the other three
and could make the final roster decision difficult. At a time when more teams are exploring
going with just two QBs, the Eagles have four that can make a case to make the team – a good
problem to have.
RUNNING BACK – LeSean McCoy set the NFL world on its ear in 2011, but a severe
concussion and a revolving door at offensive line made him one of the bigger disappointments in
2012. When McCoy was out of the lineup, seventh-round rookie Bryce Brown made a big
impact, rushing for almost 350 yards in his first two starts. He has both speed and power and will
be a nice change of pace to McCoy, although Shady is expected to thrive in the new offense.
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Former Cowboy Felix Jones was signed to provide depth and could find a small role in the
offense, but may need an injury or two to make that happen. Chris Polk was the talk of training
camp last year, but played only on special teams as a rookie last year. Kelly’s offense doesn’t
have a pure fullback, but will use H-backs James Casey and second-year man Emil Igwenagu
in that role. Casey has a chance to be a Mr. Everything in this offense – a blocker, a receiver, an
occasional runner and spot tight end. Don’t sleep on him. He will likely go undrafted, but has
value. However, coming off of arthroscopic knee surgery, he has question marks surrounding
him.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Eagles offense already lost its best player in Jeremy Maclin and
former Buccaneer Arrelious Benn to season-ending knee injuries. A consistent receiver with
good hands, a torn ACL suffered the first week of training camp has some in Philly worried
about the passing game as a whole. The electrifying DeSean Jackson was having a strong 2012
season, but broken ribs ended his year with five weeks to play and he needs to show he can stay
healthy, because injuries – major and minor – have dogged him through his career. With Maclin
gone, the team may think twice about keeping him as the team’s punt returner because of his
value to the offense. The main beneficiary of the Maclin injury will be Jason Avant. A chainmover with reliable hands, Avant was on the verge of being phased out in the new offense. Now
he has a role to play. A player to watch is 5-8 water bug Damaris Johnson, who has incredible
burst and sustained speed. Riley Cooper is in his fifth year and is the biggest receiver on the
roster. He had arguably the best chance to make the jump to the next level, but his absence from
the team following a racist slur has put a cloud over his future. Former Ram Greg Salas is also
in the mix. The Eagles have a ton of wide receivers in camp and it will be interesting to see how
they are evaluated, but losing Maclin is a huge blow.
TIGHT END – Brent Celek has been a reliable receiver and all-around tight end for years, but
Kelly sent a strong message when the Eagles used their second-round draft pick on Zach Ertz of
Stanford. Celek isn’t a game-breaker, but he does a lot of things at a high level and is a player
that will garner a lot of looks because he is adept at finding soft spots in defenses and settling in
for his quarterback. Ertz is a tremendous athlete who could thrive early in the new offense.
James Casey, who will be an H-Back/fullback/TE combination player will also get some looks
in the multi-TE sets that are expected. Fourth-year man Clay Harbor, who caught 25 passes last
year, has a good chance to make the roster, but may not have as big a role in the passing offense.
KICKER – Alex Henery had a tall order in replacing fan favorite David Akers, but has kicked
extremely well in his first two seasons and doesn’t has about as much job security as any kicker
in the league heading into 2013.
1) QB Michael Vick has been the clear frontrunner to start for most of camp. The decision hasn't
yet been made, but it's pretty much a foregone conclusion.
2) RB LeSean McCoy is motivated to rebound off his injury-plagued season. He may catch a
few less passes, but he should also see more carries.
3) WR DeSean Jackson has clearly been the best wideout on the field in camp. He says he's
looking forward to showing (and reminding) everyone what he can do!
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4) WR Riley Cooper is getting all the press, but look for WR Jason Avant to be the real
benefactor in the passing game once the season begins due to the loss of WR Jeremy Maclin.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
QUARTERBACK – The lingering question is whether Robert Griffin III will be able to return
at full health following a torn ACL last season when he was as good as any QB in the league
down the stretch. As dangerous as a runner as a thrower, RG3’s presence on the field is enough
to make defensive coordinators have sleepless nights. Kirk Cousins, also a member of the
Redskins’ 2012 draft class, is being groomed as the No. 2 guy and remains ahead of veteran Rex
Grossman on the depth chart. The only question other than RG3’s knee, is whether former West
Virginia QB Pat White can show enough to give Mike Shanahan the confidence to cut
Grossman and have three QBs on the roster with no more than one year of NFL experience.
Everything hinges on RG3’s knee, which the Redskins maintain is on pace to be ready Week 1.
RUNNING BACK – Shanahan is renowned for giving unproven late-round rookies a chance to
shine. It seemed like he found a new one every year or two in Denver and that hasn’t changed in
Washington. Alfred Morris set a franchise record with 1,613 yards. Blessed with excellent
cutback skills and defenses on their heels fearing RG3 taking off, he emerged as an ideal
complement in the backfield and comes into the preseason as the clear favorite to keep the job.
But, this is Mike Shanahan we’re talking about, so anything is possible. Last year, the
anticipated starter was going to be Roy Helu, but he suffered a turf toe injury and was left in the
dust when Morris broke through. Evan Royster doesn’t have great speed or natural hands as a
receiver, but is a solid blocker will have a role in the offense. As always, Shanny took a rookie
RB in the draft, using a fifth-round pick on Chris Thompson, an undersized speedster who
could be an effective third-down back. The fullbacks don’t get a lot of use in the offense, so
fourth-year man Darrel Young and first-year player Dorson Boyce may be competing for one
roster spot – primarily as a special teamer or blocking fullback. Young is almost a lock to win
that roster spot.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Redskins made a concerted effort to improve their passing game,
signing free agents Pierre Garcon and Joshua Morgan. Garcon had an impressive season when
he was healthy, but a toe injury hobbled him much of the season. Morgan isn’t a speed burner,
but is a dependable No. 2 chain-mover type of receiver and is expected to be catch more than the
48 passes he did last year (which led the team). If there was a pleasant surprise last year, it was
ageless Santana Moss. Pushed out of the starting lineup for the first time in his career, Moss
responded by catching 41 passes (the lowest since his rookie season), but scored eight
touchdowns – one of his best seasons ever. A third-down/passing down slot receiver, Moss has
found a critical niche in the Washington offense and he and Griffin built a quick rapport that
made both of them better. Big things are expected from third-year man Leonard Hankerson,
who is one of those receivers that makes the jump in Year Three after showing flashes, but not
consistently, in his first two years. The fifth receiver spot will be a battle, but the Redskins are
high on 2012 special teamer and part-time receiver Aldrick Robinson to win that position. It
won’t hurt that, of his 11 catches last year, three went for TDs. He will likely be competing with
former Saints Devery Henderson and Donte Stallworth for the last WR roster spot.
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TIGHT END – A lot hinges on the health of Fred Davis. A big-play tight end, he ruptured an
Achilles tendon midway through last season and, while expected to be back at 100 percent by the
start of the regular season, he still has some final hurdles to clear. As was the case last year,
young backups Logan Paulsen and Niles Paul will serve as the backups again – this time
without Chris Cooley. Paul is a converted wide receiver with upside and Paulson improved his
blocking enough that he was able to see a lot of playing time. A player to watch will be thirdround rookie Jordan Reed. He is athletic and can stretch the middle of the field, which is always
a valued commodity in a Shanahan offense.
KICKER – One certainty is Washington is that the life expectancy of a kicker isn’t high and the
future may not be as promising for Kai Forbath. He won the job last year, but has promise, but
given that the Redskins have routinely gone through two or three kickers a season over the last
two decades, you can’t discount the potential that he won’t play the entire season.
1) Everything RGIII has done in practice at camp has been positive. We could be looking at
another A.P. situation here!
2) RB alfred Morris is working on his pasds-catching abilities, but it's uncertain if his limited
role in the passing game will expand.
3) WR Pierre Garcon is running without issue at camp, and seems primed to put together a true
fantasy stud season, barring another injury.
4) TE Fred Davis is showing no signs of his Achilles injury, and with him signing a one-year
deal to return, he's highlt motivated to produce on the field in 2013!
NFC NORTH
CHICAGO BEARS
QUARTERBACK – Say what you want about his Droopy the Dog demeanor and his coming
across as a “me-first” type, Jay Cutler has the skill set to succeed, especially in the QB-friendly
offense Marc Trestman is installing. So confident were the Bears that Cutler can finish what he
starts, he is being backed up by veteran Josh McCown, a career backup, and unproven Matt
Blanchard, who spent last season on the practice squad. If there is something fantasy owners
can take heart in with Cutler, who has been accused of asking the Wizard for more heart, is that
the backups behind him are so hideous, fans don’t want him benched under any circumstance.
RUNNING BACK – Matt Forte is a question unto himself. Is he talented? Yes. Is he a glasseater? No. He is what those around the NFL call a finesse back – some take that as being he’s
afraid to take on defenders and isn’t tough, while others will claim he’s a runner/receiver who
protects himself. He will likely excel in the offense being proposed, but his career lack of
productivity in the red zone will make him valuable in PPR and yardage-heavy formats, but not
in leagues where scoring is a premium. Michael Bush is the short-yardage/goal-line back for
two reasons – that’s his strength and Forte’s weakness. Beyond the top two, it’s something a
crapshoot. Given his receiving ability and speed, Armando Allen is expected to be the thirddown/change-of-pace back. Fullback was supposed to be a battle between Evan Rodriguez and
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Harvey Unga for one spot. But Rodriguez was cut after getting arrested for a second time in the
offseason, this time for DUI, leaving the job to Unga. Unga has fullback size and a halfback skill
set. However, neither is expected to have a pronounced role in offense – whether the Bears keep
one of them or both.
WIDE RECEIVER – Brandon Marshall was one of the biggest gifts the Bears have ever
received. Reunited with Cutler, he caught 118 passes – almost as many as the next four leading
receivers combined – and was as dominant a receiving this side of Megatron. In order for
Marshall to continue to be such a dominant threat, the Bears need more viable secondary
options. They believe they have a keeper in Alshon Jeffery, who has been compared as a poor
man’s Marshall. If he can step up his game in his second season and Earl Bennett, a college
teammate of Cutler, remains a reliable short-to-intermediate receiver, the Bears have three
receivers that can make things happen. Devin Hester is still technically a receiver, but his value
is as a return man. The same is true for Eric Weems, who is a wide receiver by name, but a
return man at heart. Devin Aromashodu is back, but is likely fighting Joe Anderson for a roster
spot. If a young speed-burning receiver makes an impact – the Bears have a slew of those types
in camp hoping to catch lightning in a bottle – either Hester or Weems may end up a casualty of
the “big picture” of the Bears new offense.
TIGHT END – The Bears haven’t had much in the way of consistent, sustained tight end
production in decades. When Greg Olsen finally emerged as a threat, Mike Martz came in and
the tight end was rendered moot. The new-look Bears finally made a move to bolster the position
by signing Martellus Bennett as a free agent. Bennett is immensely talented, but spent his early
years behind Jason Witten in Dallas and never broke through as hoped or expected. After a year
in New York, where he flourished at times with the Giants, he comes to a Bears team in dire
need of a playmaking TE to draw defensive attention. Like Cutler and Marshall, he has little to
no competition. Veteran Leonard Pope has earned some kudos from coaches, but he’s a blocker
at heart, not a receiver. Steve Maneri is a blocking specialist and the third spot will be a battle
between four players – headed up by third-year player Kyle Adams. Bennett comes with recent
success and the Bears are pinning their hopes on him as much as they are Cutler and Marshall.
KICKER – Robbie Gould has set a lofty standard – he is fifth among active kickers in career
field goal percentage at 85.6 percent, which is no small feat considering he kicks in a town
nicknamed the Windy City. He is getting a cursory challenge from Eastern Illinois camp body
Austin Signor, but, barring his leg falling off (as it did last year), Gould has the job.
1) QB Jay Cutler has been solid in camp, but the OL worries remain. Will he get the time to
make big plays or get sacked and risk injury like 2012?
2) RB Matt Forte is healthy and ready to take on a more active role in the passing game,
something that will certainly help his fantasy value.
3) WR Alshon Jeffery has impressed in camp and seems ready to fill the #2 WR job to take off
significant pressure from WR Brandon Marshall.
4) TE Martellus Bennett is having a good camp, but question remain about how often the Bears
will target him in the offense?
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DETROIT LIONS
QUARTERBACK – When Matthew Stafford blew up in 2011, expectations for him in 2012
were off the charts. He has two of the top seven passing yardage seasons in NFL history, but last
year was an unqualified disaster. At only 25, he has a long career ahead of him and any QB who
has Megatron to throw to has upside from the start. He is in no danger of ever losing his job with
Shaun Hill and Kellen Moore as his backups and will be given every chance to rebound this
year. The good news for fantasy owners is that he will be available for much less this year than
he was last year at this time. If the Lions see potential in youngster Thaddeus Lewis, one of the
veterans could be shown the door.
RUNNING BACK – It can be argued the Lions haven’t had a solid running game since Barry
Sanders retired, despite efforts to restore the roar to the ground game. The Lions made a big
move to replace retired Jahvid Best by signing Reggie Bush in free agency. There’s never been a
question of Bush’s talent, but he has never become the player worthy of his high draft pick and is
a part-time player. Period. He is expected to be the lightning in the backfield. Mickel LeShoure
is expected to provide the thunder. LeShoure is a big back who pound between the tackles.
Joique Bell averaged five yards a carry in part-time duty last year and has experience with RB
coach Curtis Modkins when both were in Buffalo. Theo Reddick has the heads up to be the
fourth RB if the Lions keep four over former Jaguar Montell Owens. Shaun Chapas has a
chance to make the roster as a fullback, but the Lions rarely use a fullback in their offense.
WIDE RECEIVER – Calvin Johnson is as dominant a wide receiver as the league has seen
since the heyday of Jerry Rice and he’s only getting better with age. He came just 36 yards short
of 2,000 yards last season, but needs other options to take the heat off of him. Nate Burleson is
the top veteran option, but is coming off a broken leg suffered last year. Speedster Ryan Broyles
has the ability to be a deep threat, but he is coming off a torn ACL. If he’s healthy, he has a lot of
upside as a slot receiver. The Lions traded for Jaguar Mike Thomas at midseason last year as
injuries mounted and he should be improved in his second year in the Detroit offense. Former
Raider and Jet Chaz Schilens has a shot to land if he can impress the coaching staff over a
younger in-house candidate. Depth will be determined in training camp and the preseason with
several cast-offs with talent vying for roster spots, including Kris Durham, Terrence Austin
and Devin Thomas (who started camp on the PUP list) and training camp talker Patrick
Edwards. There will be no shortage of competition, but whoever makes the roster will merely be
the backup band for Megatron.
TIGHT END – The Lions run a ton of two-tight end formations, so depth is critical. They have
a star in Brandon Pettigrew, but his history of dropping easy passes is a problem that hasn’t
gone away. Tony Scheffler is a pass-catching TE who has great body control and finds open
spots in defenses. Depth behind the two of them will be intense, since the Broncos will likely
keep four tight ends on the roster. Sixth-round rookie Michael Williams and NFL legacy
Joseph Fauria will be competing for what will likely be one spot, but, despite being frustrating
at times, most of the passing game through the tight ends will go through Pettigrew.
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KICKER – It’s been 22 years since the Lions have entered a season without Jason Hanson, but
they will this year. Not exactly going to a youth movement, they signed 38-year-old David
Akers. While he is a six-time Pro Bowler, he kicked his way out of San Francisco after a dismal
season. While he is likely to land the job, if he gets the yips again this year, his stay and Motown
may be short and unknowns Sam Martin or Havard Rugland will be on the hot seat.
1) RB Reggie Bush has impressed in camp and seems ready for a large role in the offense, but
don't discount RB Mikel Leshoure, especially what he can do near the goal.
2) WR Nate Burleson is healthy and remains locked into the #2 starting WR job for the team.
3) WR Ryan Broyles (torn ACL) has experienced some soreness in recent practices, but remains
on track to play comes week #1. He has nice upside the further along we get away from his
injury.
4) PK David Akers remains on the hot seat. If he starts to miss kicks, the Lions won't hesitate
tyo cut him. Draft him with care!
GREEN BAY PACKERS
QUARTERBACK – Perhaps never in the history of the NFL has a quarterback replaced a
legend the way Aaron Rodgers has replaced Brett Favre in Green Bay. He is as dominant a QB
as there is in the league and he can do damage with both his arm and his legs. The backup
situation is brutal. Graham Harrell is barely passable as a backup and B.J. Coleman has a
strong arm, but no experience. Don’t read too much into the recent signing of Vince Young. The
Packers run a complicated offense and his biggest career detriment was between the ears, not
between the sidelines.
RUNNING BACK – The run game has been a problem for years and guys like Cedric Benson
and a retread Ahman Green weren’t the answer. Neither were the five running backs who spent
time as the featured back last season. The battle for playing time got serious when the Packers
used their second-round draft pick on Eddie Lacy and a fourth-round pick on Johnathan
Franklin to upgrade the running game in a hurry. Lacy is a power runner and Franklin is a hardnosed runner/blocker. Incumbent DuJuan Harris may see the most time early because he is
versatile and a solid receiver, something neither Lacy nor Franklin are adept at yet. But, he’s
been sidelined in training camp with a knee injury. With John Kuhn locking down one roster
spot, there will be a battle for the final RB roster spot between Alex Green and James Starks,
both former starters, with perhaps just one roster spot available.
WIDE RECEIVER – With Greg Jennings and Donald Driver gone, the receiver corps will look
different, but neither of them made a big impact last season due to injuries and age, respectively.
There may be more fantasy buzz surrounding Randall Cobb that any receiver in the league. He
led the team with 80 receptions last year and Rodgers is predicting he could catch 100 passes or
more this year. Jordy Nelson is as adept at making double moves and getting wide open as
anyone but, after being slowed by injuries last year, he had surgery Aug. 6 that leaves the start of
the 2013 season in question. Red zone demon James Jones caught just 64 passes last year, but a
whopping 14 of them went for touchdowns. The top three spots are set. Depth will be the
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question answered in training camp as the Packers replace Jennings and Driver. Jeremy Ross
has a roster spot virtually locked up because he is going to be the prime return man if, as
expected, Cobb is taken off full-time special teams duties due to his value to the offense. Jarrett
Boykin didn’t show much as a rookie, but is a big, strong target who is fearless over the middle.
2012 special teamer Jeremy Ross will battle seventh-round rookies Charles Johnson and
Kevin Dorsey for the final roster spots.
TIGHT END – Jermichael Finley is an enigma. He has the skill set of a huge wide receiver and
lines up all over the field. He has a history of frustrating drops, but is a primary target in the
offense. The Packers may end up keeping four tight ends. They have three situational TEs
already in Andrew Quarless, Matthew Mulligan and Ryan Taylor all have a role, with
Williams being the best receiver of the three and Mulligan a free agent signing to shore up the
blocker void left by the departure of Tom Crabtree. There will be competition for playing time,
but as any fantasy owners knows, all of them will be dangerous in the red zone.
KICKER – Mason Crosby had one of the most lucrative fantasy kicking situations in the
league, but his horrid inconsistency (worst in the NFL last year) has his job security hanging by
a thread). The Packers brought former Cal kicker Giorgio Tavecchio as competition and, if
Crosby struggles he could easily lose his job – whether to Tavecchio or a street veteran free
agent that might be signed. The Green Bay kicker will score a ton of points, but it may not be
Crosby when all is said and done.
1) Rookie RB Eddie Lacy has surged into the lead for the starting job, but sore hamstring have
him sitting in recent practices, giving veterans RB Alex Green and RB James Starks
opportunities to shine. But make no mistake, if Lacy returns to perform like he did last weekend,
the job is his.
2) Rookie RB Johnathan Franklin has settled into a pass-catching/third down role with the team
to date. Barring injury to other backs, it looks like he'll be a part time player at best in 2013.
3) The biceps injury to WR Randall Cobb appears to be a minor issue. Good thing, too, as the
knee issue to WR Jordy Nelson could end up costing him more than the first week of the season.
4) TE Jermichael Finley has impressed and shown improvement this summer. He's in a contract
year, and has every motivation to step up his game and make big plays for both the fans and his
fantasy owners.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
QUARTERBACK – Christian Ponder has been handed the starting job. In less than a year,
Minnesota got rid of his competition (Donovan McNabb and Sage Rosenfels) and learned the
hard way that Joe Webb isn’t a quarterback. He has been taken off QB duty and the backup spot
now belongs to veteran Matt Cassel, who brings experience and confidence to the position.
McLeod Bethel-Thompson is a strong-armed kid who helped push Rosenfels out the door last
summer and will likely get another year to prove himself.
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RUNNING BACK – When you have Adrian Peterson as you don’t need a lot of depth.
Peterson is a throwback runner who wants the ball 25 times a game and is projected 2,500 yards
this season. Toby Gerhart, a former second-round draft pick is the primary backup, but had just
50 carries last year. Jerome Felton was re-signed to be the team’s fullback, which may leave
only one roster spot remaining for the backfield. Incumbent Matt Asiata is most likely to lock
down the fourth spot because he can double as a fullback, but had just four touches last year. It’s
Peterson’s show, so there isn’t much room for anyone else.
WIDE RECEIVER – The Vikings raised eyebrows when they traded their only talented wide
receiver (Percy Harvin) and made no effort to bring back their next leading WR receiver
(Michael Jenkins). But, the team got aggressive in the offseason, signing free agent Greg
Jennings and using a first-round pick on Cordarrelle Patterson. Both may end up in the
starting lineup in Week 1 and Patterson has so much explosiveness that he will hard to keep off
the field, even if he has the anticipated slow learning curve. Patterson’s return ability is another
bonus. Slot receiver Jarius Wright looked good when replacing Harvin at midseason, so three
of the five or six WR spots are set. Jerome Simpson had a disappointing first year in Minnesota,
but has the speed and big-play ability to push for either a starting spot or significant playing
time. Stephen Burton has won a roster spot the last two years, but will face a challenge to his
spot by a half-dozen camp bodies – any of whom may emerge on the new-look, young Vikings
roster. When Harvin and Jenkins were sent packing, it looked as though Minnesota could hit
bottom here, but now they look to actually be improved.
TIGHT END – Kyle Rudolph may be on the cusp of stardom as an NFL tight end. He not only
is Ponder’s best friend off the field, but his best friend on the field. Rudolph led all NFL tight
ends in receptions and touchdowns in the red zone last year and has emerged as a go-to type
threat when Peterson doesn’t have his hands on the ball. Big things were expected from John
Carlson last year, but he was unqualified bust. In his second year in the system, he is expected
to put quickly or be cut. Rhett Ellison earned a roster spot last year and is the frontrunner to
lock down the No. 3 spot once again as a hybrid tight end/fullback.
KICKER – The Vikings raised some eyebrows when they drafted Blair Walsh and cut veteran
Ryan Longwell less than two weeks later. Walsh responded with a Pro Bowl season that
included an NFL record 10-for-10 of field goals from 50 yards and beyond. Minnesota didn’t
even bring competition in for Walsh, so his job is more than safe.
1) RB Adrian Peterson has been A.P. in camp. No worries here.
2) WR Greg Jennings has made more noise this summer with his mouth towards how the Packers
tried to brainwash him rather than actually impress on the field. And that's not a good thing.
3) WR Jerome Simpson has impressed more often than not this summer, giving hope to the
inconsistent passing game.
4) TE Kyle Rudolph is locked and loaded for 2013, as he should remain a solid fantasy starer.
AFC SOUTH
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ATLANTA FALCONS
QUARTERBACK – The biggest argument we made last year at this time was that, if you rank
Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez so high at their respective positions, how can you
not rank Matt Ryan as elite? That changed last year when Ryan threw for 4,800 yards and 32
touchdowns. Now Ryan will be at the top of the pecking order after guys like Aaron Rodgers,
Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are gone. With Luke McCown gone, there is no experience
behind Ryan. Dominique Davis, who was undrafted last year, is slotted to be the No. 2 guy and
seventh-round rookie Sean Renfree and undrafted rookie Seth Doege fighting it out for a roster
spot.
RUNNING BACK – For the last five years Michael Turner was a fixture at running back for the
Falcons, but it became clear over the last year-plus that he wasn’t a great fit in the new-look
Falcons offense. When he was allowed to leave, the Falcons signed former Ram Steven
Jackson, who will assume a role similar to Turner’s but could be markedly more valuable
because of his ability as a receiver. But, he turned 30 in July and he has been a workhorse so
long that the wall is within sight. The Falcons on high on the potential for Jacquizz Rodgers, a
speed back who would put Turner on the bench when the Falcons came out in no-huddle and
passing formations. Jason Snelling is the primary backup to fill Jackson’s role in the offense. He
has a combination of skills to be a halfback and a fullback. The only other roster spot open will
likely be Bradie Ewing, a pure fullback who can protect Ryan. He was slated to be the starting
fullback last year, but a torn ACL ended his season early. He’s back and expected to lock down
the fourth and final spot on the RB roster.
WIDE RECEIVER – Roddy White has been a fixture in Altanta for years and is still extremely
productive, but this will be the year that Julio Jones officially takes over the role as go-to guy in
the WR corps. Jones is entering his third season and has already made the Falcons look brilliant
for trading up with Cleveland to get him. The two of them combined for 181 receptions, 2,549
yards and 17 touchdowns last year. With them and TE Tony Gonzalez hogging all the receptions
there isn’t a lot of room for other receivers. Harry Douglas is a very capable slot receiver and is
the No. 3 option. Beyond them there is going to be a spirited training camp battle. They are
headed up by third-year receiver Drew Davis, but there are a dozen wide receivers in camp and
the roster spots will be won in practice, not in games. Kevin Cone has an edge as well given his
familiarity with the offense. With a dozen receivers on the roster competing for spots, there is
going to be a lot of competition, but, considering how centralized the passing is done between
the top three receivers and Gonzo, whoever makes the roster will have limited value.
TIGHT END – Tony Gonzalez won’t have to wait long for his name to get called to Canton
and the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but he will have to wait another year. After announcing his
retirement at the end of the 2012 season, despite leading the Falcons with 93 receptions, Gonzo
had a change of heart and came back, but the Falcons started preparing for the future by drafting
Stanford’s Levine Toilolo in the fourth round. The team has some depth with Chase Coffman
and Michael Palmer competing for roster spots. The Falcons may keep three or four TEs
because they’re weighing during the preseason is which of the backups will have the best upside
long-term for the post-Gonzo era and will make their roster decisions accordingly. The only
given is that, barring injury, Toilolo will be one of them.
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KICKER – Matt Bryant has been one of the most consistent kickers in the NFL since joining
the Falcons and is coming off a franchise-record 138 point season in 2012. While the Falcons
brought in Casey Barth as competition, it’s Bryant’s job and he could be in line for big points in
2013.
1) QB Matt Ryan got his extension, and now he's showing on the field why he's a rising fantasy
star. The sky could be the limit here!
2) RB Steven Jackson is looking very explosive in camp for a 30-year old. The team promises to
throw to him much more than they did in St. Louis recently.
3) WR Julio Jones has tight hamstrings, but it's a minor issue and nothing to worry about.
4) TE Tony Gonzalez took a leave from the team until the third week of the preseason. No
worries, as he'll show and produce as he always has when called upon.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
QUARTERBACK – Cam Newton is an anomaly because his value is largely predicated on the
scoring format of a given league. As a rookie, he energized the league as dual rushing/passing
threat, but, while the Panthers love what he can provide on the ground, to take the next step in
the maturation of an NFL QB, he needs to be able to throw the ball more efficiently. He’s ranked
way to high in this humble opinion (some have him ranked higher than Peyton Manning, which
is a sad joke), but he made strides in his second season and there is no doubting that he is the
face of the Carolina franchise. Veteran Derek Anderson is likely in as the No. 2 guy and Jimmy
Clausen likely has the edge over rookie Colby Cameron because of his familiarity with the
offense. But, if either Anderson or Clausen sees the field, it’s a sign of trouble.
RUNNING BACK – Back in the John Fox days, it wasn’t unusual for fantasy lineups to include
both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams as starters. But, since the arrival of Newton,
neither Stewart nor Williams was worthy of being a weekly starter. While both have had their
moments, they have lost out on the touchdown gravy in close due to the combination of
Newton’s dangerous legs and the 2012 arrival of Mike Tolbert. He stole seven short-yardage
touchdowns from the other two and earned a role as both a part-time featured back and full-time
fullback. There may only be one other RB on the roster and it may come down to scheme. Sixthround rookie Kenjon Barner will get every chance to make the roster because the Panthers are
going to have the shed contract money that has been deeply invested in Stewart and Williams.
Armond Smith will make the roster potentially in the event of a Ground Zero scenario. Fullback
Richie Brockel has a chance to make the roster because he doubles as a fullback/tight end/Hback hybrid. There won’t be a lot of value to any of these guys because, until one of them goes
away, the value is diluted on all of them.
WIDE RECEIVER – Steve Smith may be 34 years old, but you’re hard pressed to find a
toug

1997 Mastermind Mock Draft - Fantasy Football Mastermind

Transcription

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