Novation_Analytics_MY2014_Baseline Study_22sep2015_v1.0.key

Transcription

MY 2014 Baseline Study
prepared for
Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers
Association of Global Automakers
September 22, 2015
- version 1.0 -
Novation Analytics, LLC | MY 2014 Baseline Study
Disclaimer
The statements and conclusions in this document are those of Novation Analytics, LLC and not those
of the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the Association of Global Automakers, or its members.
2
Agenda
๏
Motivation & Objective
๏
Database
๏
Fleet Composition & 2-Cycle Performance
๏
Fleet GHG & CAFE Program Credits
๏
Fleet Compliance
๏
Technology Deployment
๏
Conclusions
3
Motivation & Objective
4
Motivation
๏
Fleet composition, 2-cycle performance, credit usage and technology deployment assumptions
made by EPA and NHTSA are a central component of the MY 2012-2025 US light-duty GHG and
CAFE standards.
๏
Combined with the MYs 2012 and 2013 results, this third year of the study will continue to
provide trend information required to support the mid-term review.
5
Objectives
๏
Conduct an independent annual assessment of fleet composition, 2-cycle performance, credit usage
and technology deployment within the U.S. light duty fleet.
๏
Conduct fleet performance and technology deployment comparisons to identify differences
between the actual values and those assumed in the MY 2012-2016 rules.
6
Database
7
Vehicle Attribute Database
๏
The vehicle attribute and performance database used for this assessment was generated,
independent of this study, by Novation Analytics.
๏
The MY 2014 Novation Analytics database includes 1368 individual vehicle models and subconfigurations offered for sale in the United States. The database combines all vehicle and
powertrain specifications with certification test parameters and results, including road load
coefficients, equivalent test weights, fuel economy, and tailpipe CO2 emissions.
๏
All data included in the Novation Analytics database were obtained from public sources including
manufacturer’s consumer and media websites, EPA Verify queries, and certification documents.
8
Vehicle Sales & Credits
๏
To complete the objectives of this study, vehicle sales and fleet credits (GHG & CAFE) were
required from each manufacturer.
๏
Vehicle sales and fleet credits were collected from each manufacturer in a blinded format.
๏
Vehicle sales and fleet credits supplied to Novation Analytics are confidential business information
and are not shared with either Association or their members.
9
Fleet Composition & 2-Cycle Performance
10
Vehicle Sales
18"
Nova9on"Analy9cs"Baseline"Study"
16"
14.85%
EPA"Trends"Report,"October"2014"
13.44%
Vehicle"Sales"[millions]"
14"
8"
15.51%
13.41%
12"
10"
14.97%
8.65%
9.38%
9.52%
9.16%
8.59%
6"
4.79%
4.82%
4"
5.47%
6.34%
5.45%
2"
Passenger"Car"
LightLDuty"Truck"
Combined"
0"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
Overall, MY 2014 sales increased by over 500,000 units. Passenger car sales dropped while light-duty truck
sales increased.
11
Vehicle Sales Share
100"
90"
80"
Sales"Share"[%]"
70"
60"
64.4%
63.2%
64.1%
63.6%
61.3%
59.1%
50"
40"
30"
35.6%
36.8%
35.9%
36.4%
38.7%
40.9%
20"
10"
Passenger"Car"
LightNDuty"Truck"
0"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
The share of passenger cars continues to drop. In MY 2014 the passenger car share dropped below 60%. The
full magnitude of the change in passenger car/light-duty truck share was not shown in the last EPA Trends
Report.
12
Footprint
80"
Values are sales-weighted
70"
Footprint"[32]"
60"
50"
40"
45.7%
45.6%
45.9%
45.9%
45.9%
46.0%
54.5%
54.7%
54.4%
54.3%
54.7%
54.9%
48.8%
49.2%
49.2%
48.7%
49.1%
49.6%
30"
20"
10"
Passenger"Car"
LightNDuty"Truck"
Combined"
0"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
From MYs 2012 to 2014, the footprint of the passenger car and light-duty fleets have increased by 0.4 ft2 and
0.6 ft2 (~1%), respectively. In the same time period, the combined fleet footprint increased by 0.9 ft2 due to
the shift in the car/truck share.
13
Tailpipe CO2 Emissions (2-cycle)
Unadjusted#Combined#Tailpipe#CO2#Emissions#[g/mile]#
500#
NovaAon#AnalyAcs#Baseline#Study#
450#
EPA#Trends#Report,#October#2014#
400#
369$
367$
350#
359$
359$
353$
348$
298$
300#
250#
259$
257$
253$
251$
249$
248$
297$
292$
290$
289$
289$
200#
150#
Passenger#Car#
LightMDuty#Truck#
Combined#
100#
2012#
2013#
2014#
2012#
2013#
2014#
2012#
2013#
2014#
The combined fleet tailpipe emissions did not change from MY 2013 to MY 2014. This is due to the shift in
car/truck sales and the relatively flat performance of the passenger car fleet. After an 8 g/mile reduction
between MYs 2012 and 2013, the passenger car fleet improved by just 1 g/mile from MYs 2013 to 2014.
14
Tailpipe CO2 Emissions (2-cycle) | Performance to Standard
500#
NovaAon#AnalyAcs#Baseline#Study#
450#
Footprint#Standard#
400#
350#
300#
348$
266$
260$
340$
331$
289$
284$
297$
289$
289$
252$
250#
367$
359$
348$
200#
257$
295$
249$
248$
150#
Passenger#Car#
LightLDuty#Truck#
Combined#
100#
2012#
2013#
2014#
2012#
2013#
2014#
2012#
2013#
2014#
As with prior model years, the MY 2014 passenger car fleet over performs the footprint standard without
credits while the light-duty truck fleet requires credits to comply. For the first time since MY 2012, the
combined fleet requires credits to comply.
15
Tailpipe CO2 Emissions (2-cycle) | Performance to Projected
500#
NovaBon#AnalyBcs#Baseline#Study#
450#
Projected#Achieved#w/o#Credits#2012L2016#FR#
400#
365$
354$
350#
300#
344$
330$
309$
270$
264$
258$
250#
248$
307$
277$
236$
359$
348$
200#
297$
249$
290$
261$
367$
257$
298$
289$
289$
248$
150#
100#
Passenger#Car#
LightLDuty#Truck#
Combined#
2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016#
2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016#
2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016#
The light-duty truck fleet continues to under perform the tailpipe CO2 performance projected by the EPA in
the final rule. The passenger car fleet continues to outperform the EPA projections.
16
Fuel Economy (2-cycle)
50"
45"
Unadjusted"Combined"Fuel"Economy"[mpg]"
NovaAon"AnalyAcs"Baseline"Study"
40"
35"
34.3%
34.5%
35.2%
35.5%
35.7%
35.8%
29.8%
30"
25"
24.1%
24.8%
25.2%
24.2%
24.8%
25.6%
29.9%
30.5%
30.6%
30.8%
30.8%
20"
15"
10"
5"
Passenger"Car"
LightMDuty"Truck"
Combined"
0"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
The combined fleet fuel economy did not change from MY 2013 to MY 2014. As with the tailpipe CO2
emissions, this trend was due to the shift in the car/truck share and the relatively flat performance of the
passenger car fleet.
17
Fuel Economy (2-cycle) | Performance to Standard
50"
45"
NovaAon"AnalyAcs"Baseline"Study"
Footprint"Standard"
40"
35"
30"
34.3
33.6
33.1
25.3
25"
20"
15"
34.5%
26.2
24.8%
25.6%
30.2
30.4
29.9%
30.8%
30.8%
35.8%
35.7%
24.2%
10"
5"
25.8
29.8
Passenger"Car"
LightIDuty"Truck"
Combined"
0"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
2012"
2013"
2014"
As with prior model years, the MY 2014 passenger car fleet over performs the footprint standard without
credits while the light-duty truck fleet requires credits to comply. The combined fleet can comply without
credits.
18
Fuel Economy (2-cycle) | Performance to Projected
50"
45"
Projected"Achieved"w/o"Credits"2012K2016"FR"
40"
35.0%
35"
30"
32.3%
36.2%
33.5% 34.2%
24.5% 25.1%
25"
20"
NovaBon"AnalyBcs"Baseline"Study"
25.9%
26.7%
27.5%
34.5% 35.7% 35.8%
32.7%
24.2% 24.8% 25.6%
10"
0"
29.7%
31.5%
29.9% 30.8% 30.8%
15"
5"
28.7%
30.6%
Passenger"Car"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
LightKDuty"Truck"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
Combined"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
As with prior model years, the MY 2014 passenger car fleet over performs the NHTSA projections. The lightduty truck fleet continues to perform close to the projections.
19
Fleet GHG & CAFE Program Credits
20
Scope | Background
๏
As credits are an integral part of the GHG and CAFE programs and manufacturers’ flexibilities in
compliance with the programs, the Associations desire an evaluation of CO2/Fuel Economy
performance with and without credits, the contribution of credits toward compliance, and credit
generation trends vs. agency projections.
๏
Credit analysis was limited to CO2/CAFE credits reported in the production model years. Analysis
of OEM credit carry-forward, carry-back and averaging, banking and trading was outside the scope
of this current study.
๏
Beginning with MY 2014, the Associations requested that A/C Direct credits (Low Leak &
Alternate Refrigerant credits) be reported separately for analysis and tracking purposes. All
member companies supplied separate A/C Low Leak and A/C Alternate Refrigerant credits for MY
2014. However, no attempt was made to obtain this additional detail for the prior model years.
๏
EPA’s published projections of credits do not distinguish between types of A/C Direct credit, and
are only provided for the combined car/truck fleet for MYs 2012-2016.
21
CO2 Equivalent Credit Detail
Unadjusted Combined CO2 Equivalent Credit [g/mile]
30
25
20
Off-Cycle Credit
A/C Direct Credit (Low Leak &
Alt Refrigerant)
A/C Indirect Credit (System
Efficiency)
FFV Credit
3.7$
5.4$
6.3$
Low$Leak$$$5.5$
Alt$Refrig.$$0.8$
5.5$
Low$Leak$$$4.5$
Alt$Refrig..$0.6$
1.8$
15
Passenger Car
10
3.2$
5
2.3$
3.4$
2.9$
2.2$
3.0$
1.7$
4.2$
3.1$
4.2$
4.2$
4.6$
2012
2013
2014
4.0$
Low$Leak$$$3.8$
Alt$Refrig.$$0.4$
14.8$
14.0$
2.5$
4.3$
2.1$
2.7$
7.9$
8.0$
5.1$
3.0$
14.3$
Light Truck
8.6$
Combined
0
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
FFV credits currently provide the largest GHG program benefit but will substantially phase out after 2015.
A/C Credits continue to increase year-over-year. Off-cycle credits become material in 2014 with the
availability of the credit menu, providing a 2.5 g/mile benefit to the combined fleet.
22
Combined Fleet Average CO2 credits | Projected vs. Actual.
10
Novation Analytics Baseline Study - Actual Credits
8.6$
7.9$
EPA Projected Credits
8.0$
6.5$
5.8$
5.1$
5
4.3$
4.0$
5.0$
4.1$
3.4$
3.0$
2.7$
2.7$
2.1$
1.9$
2.5$
2.3$
1.6$
A/C Direct
A/C Indirect
Off-Cycle
FFV
0
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
2014
2012
2013
2014
A/C Direct and FFV credits generated have exceeded EPA’s projections, and A/C Indirect (Efficiency) credits
are roughly in line with the agency projections. EPA did not project Off-Cycle credit values prior to MY
2017. FFV credits have increased as additional manufacturers have introduced car and truck FFV models.
23
Combined Fleet Average CO2 credits | Maximum vs. Actual.
20
Novation Analytics Baseline Study - Actual Credits
Maximum Credits Available (Calculated)
15
15#
15.2#
15#
13.1#
10
10#
7.9$
5
5.1$
4.3$
4.0$
5.7#
2.1$
0
12.3#
A/C Direct
2012
2013
2014
5.7#
3.0$
2.7$
2013
8.6$
5.7#
A/C Indirect
2012
8.0$
12.3#
2014
2.5$
FFV
Off-Cycle
2014
2012
2013
2014
Additional potential of up to 20 g/mile exists for A/C and Off-Cycle credit generation. Alternate Refrigerants
can allow growth in future MY A/C Credits. Maximum FFV credits are lowered in 2015 and significantly
restricted thereafter. Off-Cycle credit maximum shown is combined maximum via the off-cycle credit menu.
24
CAFE FFV Credit | Projected vs. Actual.
Unadjusted Combined FFV Credit [mpg]
Passenger Car
Light Truck
Combined
1.0
1.1
0.5
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9 0.9
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.5 0.5
Novation Analytics Baseline Study Sales Weighted FFV credit
NHTSA Projected FFV Credit
0.0
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
Actual FFV credits are essentially unchanged, with a slight increase for the light truck fleet. NHTSA has over
predicted passenger car credits and assumed that the entire fleet, car and truck, would approach the 1.2 mpg
maximum allowable credit value by MY 2014.
25
Fleet Compliance
26
CO2 Emissions | Performance to Standard
Unadjusted Combined Tailpipe CO2 Emissions [g/mile]
400
367 348#
359
350
346
340# 348
337
331#
321
295#
300
297
266#
283
260#
252#
250
257 247
249
239
289#
289
289
274
284#
270
Novation Analytics Baseline Study (w/o credits)
248
234
Novation Analytics Baseline Study with credits
Footprint Standard
200
Combined
Light Truck
Passenger Car
150
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
Credits are required for the light truck fleet to achieve the CO2 footprint standards for the 3 model years
evaluated. The passenger car fleet continues to over perform the standard and generates GHG credits.
27
MY 2014 CO2 Compliance Detail | Passenger Car
Unadjusted Combined CO2 Emissions [g/mile]
300
150
2-Cycle Performance and Credits
Fleet Performance with Credits
4$
250
200
Footprint Based Standard
MY 2014
Passenger Car
3.8$
0.4$
3.1$
1.7$
4.6$
252$
234$
Fleet Footprint Performance A/C Low Leak
Standard
Better than
Credits
Standard
A/C Alt
Refrigerant
Credits
A/C Efficiency
Credits
Off-Cycle
Credits
FFV Credits
Performance
With Credits
In MY 2014, the passenger car fleet performed 4 g/mile below the CO2 footprint standard without credits and
generated 14 g/mile of GHG program credits, which can provide compliance flexibility for future model years.
28
MY 2014 CO2 Compliance Detail | Light Truck
400
MY 2014 Light Truck
Credits
17$
350
5.5$
0.8$
3.0$
3.7$
14.3$
300
250
331$
Standard
Worse than
Credits
Standard
321$
A/C Alt
Refrigerant
Credits
A/C Efficiency
Credits
Off-Cycle
Credits
FFV Credits
Performance
With Credits
The 2-cycle performance of the MY 2014 light truck fleet was at a 17 g/mile deficit to the footprint standard.
Use of credits was necessary to reach compliance. The largest component of the credits used is FFV credit,
which will be reduced beginning in MY 2015. The truck fleet would not comply without FFV credits.
29
MY 2014 CO2 Compliance Detail | Combined Fleet
350
MY 2014
Combined Fleet
Credits
300
5$
4.5$
0.6$
3.0$
2.5$
8.6$
250
200
284$
Standard
Worse than
Credits
Standard
270$
A/C Alt
Refrigerant
Credits
A/C Efficiency
Credits
Off-Cycle
Credits
FFV Credits
Performance
With Credits
The 2-cycle performance of the combined fleet was at a 5 g/mile deficit to the footprint standard. Credits
availability allows the combined fleet to comply and allows some opportunity for generating additional credits
for future model year compliance. However, the largest credit component is FFV credit which will phase out.
30
Fleet CO2 Emissions | Projected vs. Actual (with credits).
500#
#NovaBon#AnalyBcs#Baseline#Study#(with#credits)#
450#
#Projected#Achieved#with#Credits#2012N2016#FR#
400#
346$
350#
337$
326$
312$
300#
263$
256$
250#
247$
236$
100#
295$
346$
337$
239$
276$
263$
250$
321$
283$
247$
286$
225$
200#
150#
298$
274$
270$
234$
Passenger#Car#
LightNDuty#Truck#
Combined#
2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016#
2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016#
2012# 2013# 2014# 2015# 2016#
While the truck fleet with credits slightly improved relative to EPA projections in MY 2014, the rate of
decrease of passenger car CO2 with credits has slowed compared to the agency’s projected decrease.
Combined, the fleet is moving from overperforming to meeting the agency expectations.
31
Fuel Economy | Performance to Standard
38
Novation Analytics Baseline Study (w/o credits)
Unadjusted Combined Fuel Economy [mpg]
36
35.7
34
32
34.5
36.3
35.8
35.0
33.1$
33.6$
Novation Analytics Baseline Study with credits
36.4
Footprint Standard
34.3$
31.6
30.8
30.7
30
29.9 29.8$
31.6
30.2$ 30.8
30.4$
28
26
25.3$
25.1
24
22
24.2
25.8$
25.7
26.2$
25.6
26.6
24.8
Light Truck
Passenger Car
Combined
20
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
As with the CO2 standard, FFV credits are required for light truck fleet to achieve the CAFE standards. With
passenger car over performance, the combined fleet is achieving the CAFE footprint standard without FFV
credits. Availability of FFV credits currently provides an opportunity to generate CAFE program credits.
32
Combined Fuel Economy | Projected vs. Actual (with credits).
50"
45"
"Projected"Achieved"with"Credits"2012L2016"FR"
40"
36.3%
35"
30"
32.8%
34.4%
37.2%
35.3%
25.1%
25"
20"
"NovaBon"AnalyBcs"Baseline"Study"(with"credits)"
26.0%
27.0% 27.6%
28.5%
35.0% 36.3% 36.4%
15"
29.3%
30.6%
31.7%
32.6%
33.7%
30.7% 31.6% 31.6%
25.1% 25.7% 26.6%
10"
5"
0"
Passenger"Car"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
LightLDuty"Truck"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
Combined"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
As with CO2, the passenger car fleet over performance vs. NHTSA projections is diminishing, with the
combined fleet now at the agency’s projected performance in MY 2014. The light truck fleet with FFV credits
has been falling below the agency’s projected performance level since MY 2013.
33
Technology Deployment
34
Technology Deployment | Key Parameters vs. EPA Reporting
Production*Actual*[millions]
Passenger*Car*Actual*[%]
Light*Truck*Actual*[%]
Unadj.*Comb.*Tailpipe*CO2*[g/mile]
Unadj.*Comb.*Fuel*Economy*[mpg]
Spark*Ignition*[%]
Compression*Ignition*[%]
Spark*Ignition9Electric*Hybrid*[%]
Electric*[%]
Engine*Displacement*[L]
Cylinders
Turbocharged*[%]
Spark*Ignition*Direct*Injection*[%]
Variable*Valve*Timing*[%]
Variable*Valve*Lift*[%]
Cylinder*Deactivation*[%]
Non9Hybrid*Stop9Start*[%]
Traditional*Automatic*[%]
Single*&*Dual*Clutch*Automatic*[%]
Continuously*Variable*[%]
Single*Clutch*Manual*[%]
FWD
RWD
AWD*/*4WD
Novation#Analytics#Baseline#Studies
EPA#Trends#Report#(October#2014)
MY#2012
13.4
64.1
35.9
297
29.9
95.8
0.9
3.1
0.1
3.00
5.12
8.4
22.4
96.0
16.3
8.1
0.6
80.3
4.2
12.7
3.6
61.4
11.0
27.6
MY#2012
13.4
64.4
35.6
298
29.8
96.0
0.9
3.1
9
3.0
5.12
8.4
22.7
96.7
9
8.1
0.6
83.7
1.1
11.6
3.6
61.4
10.9
27.7
MY#2013
15.0
63.6
36.4
289
30.8
94.9
0.9
3.9
0.3
2.89
5.06
13.9
31.0
97.6
14.9
7.8
2.3
77.8
3.5
14.9
3.4
59.3
11.3
29.4
MY#2014
15.5
59.1
40.9
289
30.8
95.6
1.2
2.9
0.3
2.94
5.11
14.8
39.2
98.2
15.7
10.6
5.3
74.2
3.8
19.1
2.8
55.3
12.1
32.6
MY#2013
14.8
63.2
36.8
292
30.5
95.6
0.9
3.5
9
2.9
5.08
14.1
30.4
97.6
9
7.9
2.3
80.7
1.2
14.7
3.5
59.1
11.3
29.6
MY#2014
9
61.3
38.7
290
30.6
94.5
1.5
4.0
9
3.0
5.17
15.7
37.9
97.5
9
11.7
4.6
75.9
1.1
19.3
3.7
56
12.8
31.2
Values#greater#than#5%#between#Novation#Analytics#and#EPA#Trends#Report
Except for dual clutch transmissions, the Novation Analytics baseline studies have, in the past, aligned with the
EPA Trends report for key technology parameters. For MY 2014, the October 2014 Trends Report used midmodel year data while the Novation Analytics baseline study is based on final model year volumes.
35
Technology Deployment | Actual vs. Assumed
100"
Actual"(Baseline"Study)"
90"
Assumed"(Volpe,"MYs"201292016"FR)"
Sales"[%"of"light9duty"vehicles]"
80"
70"
60"
50"
39.6$
40"
32.2$
30"
20"
34.9$
19.4$
0"
16.7$
39.2$
31.0$
10"
Turbocharging"
26.7$
19.5$
21.9$
Stop9Start"
24.8$
14.0$
11.5$
22.4$
Spark"IgniPon"DI"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
8.4$
13.9$ 14.8$
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
0.0$
0.6$
0.0$
2.3$
2.5$
5.3$
6.0$
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
Manufacturers are deploying spark-ignition direct fuel injection and stop-start at a faster pace than assumed
by Volpe for the MYs 2012-2016 final rule. The rate of deployment for turbocharging slowed in MY 2014 and
is not keeping pace with the Volpe assumptions.
36
100"
90"
80"
92.2%
79.3%
82.8%
85.1% 86.0%
70"
60"
50"
56.5%
48.6%
96.0% 97.6% 98.2%
51.8%
43.1%
40"
30"
29.6%
Variable"Valve"LiQ"
20"
10"
0"
Cylinder"DeacTvaTon"
Variable"Valve"Timing"
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
16.3% 14.9% 15.7%
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
17.2%
15.5% 16.2% 14.9% 15.5%
8.1%
7.8%
10.6%
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
Deployment of variable value timing continues to outpace the Volpe assumptions with implementation
occurring more than 5 years earlier than assumed. Actual use of variable valve lift is far lower than assumed
by Volpe while cylinder deactivation deployment is about 60% of the assumed level.
37
100"
90"
>5"speed"AutomaNc"Trans."
80"
75.9$
70"
69.2$
60"
56.6$
50"
40"
30"
20"
10"
0"
44.3$
61.1$ 60.8$
65.4$
Non9Hybrid"CVT"
27.1$
Dual"Clutch"Trans."
12.9$
7.8$
5.1$
2.8$
2.5$
4.1$
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
3.4$
3.8$
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
8.1$
8.0$
8.0$
9.1$
11.6$ 16.4$
8.3$
8.4$
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
Transmission technology implementation is quite different than assumed by Volpe. High ratio spread
automatic transmissions continue to be >60% of the market while the use of dual clutch transmissions
remains stagnant at under 4%, versus the assumed deployment value of 57% for MY 2014. CVTs are
increasing versus the flat deployment assumed by Volpe.
38
100"
90"
80"
70"
60"
50"
SI9Electric"Hybrids"(all)"
40"
Mild"SI9Electric"Hybrids"(P0)"
30"
20"
26.2$
30.0$ 30.6$
17.9$
19.7$
Power9Split"SI9Electric"Hybrids"
12.0$
11.5$
10"
0"
24.2$
23.6$
3.1$
3.9$
2.9$
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
5.7$
0.1$
0.1$
0.1$
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
4.1$
4.3$
4.4$
2.3$
2.7$
2.2$
4.4$
4.4$
2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" 2016"
Spark ignition-electric hybridization is approximately one-tenth of the deployment assumed by Volpe. The
majority of the Volpe assumption was mild hybrids in the form of belt-alternator-starter systems which
continue to have very little market exposure. Power-split hybrids continue to be deployed at a rate that is
approximately half of the Volpe assumption.
39
Conclusions
๏
Compared to the agency projections, the improvements in the passenger car and light-duty truck
fleet 2-cycle tailpipe performance is at a rate that is lower than the agencies anticipated. This is
increasing manufacturers’ reliance on credits for compliance with the footprint standards.
๏
The light-duty truck market share is increasing, exposing more of its gap between actual
performance versus agency projection. The resulting combined fleet performance has moved from
from compliance with the standards without credits to requiring credits to comply.
๏
Currently the fleet relies heavily on FFV credits to achieve compliance with the agency standards.
The FFV credit mechanism is entering its sunset phase in MY 2015, particularly for the GHG
program. Vehicle 2-cycle performance improvements or other sources of credits must ramp up to
compensate for dwindling FFV credits. Approximately 20 g/mile additional potential exists in A/C
and Off-Cycle credits over the MY 2014 combined fleet credits generated.
๏
The gap between agency projections and actual performance is likely the result of over optimistic
technology deployment assumptions on the part of the agencies. While manufacturers have
exceeded agency expectations for certain technologies, such as spark ignition direct injection and
high ratio-spread transmissions, other technologies have significantly lagged agency projections.
Actual deployment of hybrids, for example, is much lower than projected.
40
Conclusions
๏
The over optimistic agency projected technology deployment rates can combine with agency
assumptions on the technology’s effectiveness as a key source of the agencies’ over optimistic
projected rate of 2-cycle tailpipe performance improvement. This is likely the case with agency’s
assumptions on hybrid technology.
41
Next Steps & Recommendations
๏
Given the timing of the Technical Assessment Report (June 2016), we recommend generating the
MYs 2015 and 2016 baseline studies by Q2 2016. These studies could be generated with a
combination of final submissions (MY 2015) and mid-model year reports (MY 2015 & 2016).
๏
Completing the baseline studies for MYs 2012 through 2016 will allow for a complete evaluation
of the fleet performance and technology deployment under the phase 1 rules.
42
Questions?
Michael Reale
[email protected]
313-600-2181
43

Novation_Analytics_MY2014_Baseline Study_22sep2015_v1.0.key

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