Supporting sustainable mobility planning and

Supporting sustainable mobility planning
and decision making in mountain regions:
the Access2Mountain environmentallandscape model
Massimo Sargolini, Renato De Leone, Andrea Renzi
UNICAM
Košice, October 2012
Maps of the model regions & their provisional delimitation
Italy – South Tyrol
Austria - Mostviertel
Slovakia - Košice
Poland
Rzeszów
Romania
Maramures
North Hungary
Austria - Gesäuse
Tourist mobility model
• Determine the centroids for interesting tourist points
• Verify which travelling options are available for each
origin-destination pair
• Construct shortest path tree for each travelling origin
(for each travelling modality)
• For each arc, determine which origin-destination pair
are involved and possible traveling mode
Focus on Kosice model region
Kosice region: Points of tourist interest
Routing Map
Origin / Destination distance (for main points of interest, Kosice)
Origin / Destination travel time (for main points of interest, Kosice)
Routes and distances (for main points of interest, Kosice)
Route no.
From / to
Starting Point
Km
Km
Km
Km
Route 1
Kosice – Spisska Nova Ves
Kosice
19
Kosicka bela
49
Krompachy
75
Spisska Nova Ves
Route 2
Kosice – Dobšiná
Kosice
29
Moldava nad Bodvou
68
Rožňava
95
Dobšiná
Route 3
Kosice - Dobšinská ľadová jaskyňa
Kosice
29
Moldava nad Bodvou
68
Rožňava
95
Dobšiná
111
Dobšinská ľadová jaskyňa
Route 4
Kosice – Dedinky
Kosice
29
Moldava nad Bodvou
68
Rožňava
95
Dobšiná
105
Dedinky
Route 5
Kosice – Rožňava
Kosice
29
Moldava nad Bodvou
68
Rožňava
Route 6
Kosice – Moldava nad Bodvou
Kosice
30
Moldava nad Bodvou
Route 7
Kosice – Jasov
Kosice
27
Jasov
Route 8
Kosice – Krompachy
Kosice
19
Kosicka bela
49
Krompachy
Route 9
Kosice – Gelnica
Kosice
19
Kosicka bela
42
Gelnica
Route 10
Kosice – Michalovce
Kosice
32
Dargov
60
Michalovce
Route 11
Kosice – Dargov
Kosice
32
Dargov
Route 12
Kosice – Kosicka bela
Kosice
19
Kosicka bela
Shortest path matrix (for main points of interest, Kosice)
Shortest path trees for each travel origin (1)
Shortest path trees for each travel origin (2)
Shortest path trees for each travel origin (3)
Shortest path trees for each travel origin (4)
Shortest path trees for each travel origin (5)
Shortest path trees for each travel origin (6)
Focus on Hungarian area
Hungarian region: Points of tourist interest
Routing Map
Shortest path trees for each travel origin (1)
)
Shortest path trees for each travel origin (2)
Determination of which Origin/Destination pair uses a specific arc
Determination of which Origin/Destination pair uses a specific arc
Determination of which Origin/Destination pair uses a specific arc
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Further steps in model development
Model based on Systems Dynamics approach
-Integrating a composite set of indicators on
environmental and landscape impacts on tourist paths
-Including feedback loops on the number of users
through effects on regional economy and society
-Should find some sustainability thresholds to drive
policies
System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to
policy analysis and design. It applies to dynamic
problems arising in complex social, managerial,
economic, or ecological systems — literally any
dynamic systems characterized by interdependence,
mutual interaction, information feedback, and circular
causality.
A System
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Interdependent group of items forming a unified pattern
Can be found in management (strategy, processes),
nature (ecosystem, human body), technology (plant,
factory)
Has a structure which can be identified and shapes its
characteristics
Systems Theory
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Human beings are natural born quick problem solvers
Sometimes causal relationships for events are hard to
identify
Systems Thinking provides tools to address difficult
management problems requiring a “problem solving”
approach (social, economic, ecological and political)
ST can help develop Decision Support Systems (DSS) for
improving policy making
For example, system dynamics studies
reinforcing processes—feedback flows that
generate exponential growth or collapse—and
balancing processes—feedback flows that
help a system maintain stability.
In its simplest sense, system dynamics focuses
on the flow of feedback (information that is
transmitted and returned) that occurs
throughout the parts of a system—and the
system behaviors that result from those flows.
• System dynamics is concerned with the
behavior of a system over time.
Key concepts are:
• system stocks
• system flows
• system feedbacks
Stocks and Flows
In the System Dynamics modeling, the dynamic
behaviour is linked to the principle of accumulation:
flows accumulate in stocks
Feedbacks
Stocks and flows in the system are part of
feedback loops, and the feedback loops are
joined together.
Explicit goal seeking
The model allows to visualize:
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•
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Tourist traffic scenarios & flows in the model regions
Environmental and landscape impacts of transport
flows and infrastructure
Effects of alternative modal split in the regions
Possible economic impacts of increased visitors
Possible social impacts of increased visitors
Benefits:
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Use scenarios to define tourist, economic and environmental
policies on the basis of expected impacts
Set policy goals in the domains covered by the indicators used
in the model
Manage seasonal impacts of tourist mobility
Run simulations on alternative mobility planning options to
assess the sustainability of regional policy choices
Start a “Cost-Benefit Analysis” on alternative planning
scenarios as a basis for policy discussion and prioritization of
public expenditure and funding
The Vensim A2M Model
Inside the Vensim A2M model
Causes Tree for NOx
Causes Tree for Landscape Quality (Attractiveness)
Causes Tree for Total Number of Tourists
Uses Tree for Total Number of Tourists
Survey of landscape characters from the model regions
(Sebastiano Ferranti, Corrado Gamberoni, Roberto Gambino, Paolo Perna, Andrea Renzi,
Massimo Sargolini).
The notable historical, socio-economic, and environmental differences that are observed
between model regions and their surroundings, the ecosystem fragmentation that has been
brought about by development over the last century, and above all the largely shared intent to
promote appropriate and sustainable forms of development for tourism and tourist mobility,
confer a crucial role on the implementation of resources and infrastructure.
Remarks on the model
The model considers primarily, the shortest paths
and calculates:
a. Environmental indicators
b. Landscape indicators
their effects on tourist attractiveness AND
number of tourists. Then:
c. economic impacts of tourism (number of tourists)
d. social impacts of economic growth related to
tourism
Landscape status analysis to determine the “landscape perceptive quality level”
Model regions exploration
Survey of landscape characters from the model regions
(Sebastiano Ferranti, Corrado Gamberoni, Roberto Gambino, Paolo Perna, Andrea Renzi, Massimo Sargolini).
Three layers of interpretation of the characteristics of the landscape.
Observation Areas
These areas, where we concentrate our observations, can be designated as “target sites” or
observation areas.
Components
Each site or area of observation exhibits within it a relatively large number of heterogeneous
components that interact among themselves, even more for areas that are historically and biologically
complex and diversified, and each component is well-characterized under the structural and functional
profile.
Contexts of interests
The areas should be divide in contexts of interest, that is, the environments in which relationships of
various nature (ecology, landscape, economy, society/culture, etc.) arise and affect the observed area.
.
Context 1 – Rural Plain with intensive agricolture
Context character
The Pannonian Basin, like many other
European plain areas, tend towards ever
more intensive forms of agriculture.
Landscape Feature
The structure of the landscape presents a
very extensive plain morphology. The
agricultural network is large, consisting of
plots of uniform cultivation. Linear,
secondary infrastructures are inserted on
the main routes, and connect with the
small rural settlements designed in strict
relationship with the adjacent rural bottom.
Other arterial networks form in the
direction of historical routes starting from
the main centres.
Ecological Feature
Intensive agriculture is one of the principal
threats to biodiversity on the continent.
Natural or semi-natural linear elements,
like rows of trees or bushes, are an
essential component of this context if an
adequate level of biological diversity and
functionality of the ecosystems is to be
conserved.
Near Debrecen, Hungary.
Component – Depressions
Component character
The limit that exists between the chain of
the Carpathians and the large Pannonian
Basin signals a sharp discontinuity in the
ecological systems. The fertile terrain
allows for the development of a dominant
modern agriculture of extensive cereal
cultivation.
Landscape Feature
The vast plain area in some parts assumes
the character of the depression. Here,
superficial water stagnates, forming
mirrors of different sizes. They are isolated
components of the landscape, whose
surroundings are marked by lake
vegetation.
Ecological Feature
Essential components of this context are
the residual patches of natural vegetation
that are primarily concentrated along the
large rivers or, as in this case, in lakes and
wetlands of particular environmental value.
Tisza Lake, Hungary.
Context 2 – Urban
Context character
Urbanized areas, generated by significant
socio-economic trends after the Second
World War, have assumed dimensions
that are considerable and certainly
predominant with respect to original
historical centres. Urban settlements are
present as a mosaic of ecologically
different areas.
Landscape Feature
Urban settlement develops primarily in the
flatter parts of the territory near principal
transportation routes.
Ecological Feature
In this case, residential quarters, green
areas, and industrial complexes are
evident. Within the scope of urban
ecological processes, each of these
undertakes different functions that can be
integrated within the fabric of bioconnectivity. Natural contexts often come
in close contact with urban contexts,
enhancing the system of biological
relationships with additional complexity.
Presov, Slovakia
Component – Urban center
Component character
Landscape Feature
The principal routes to approach the urban
centre are essential components of the city
structure. They are designed to contain
space for public and private transport as
well as the movement of pedestrians and
bicycles.
Ecological Feature
Natural elements, even if they are small or
residual, are a very important component
in urban areas. They provide fundamental
ecological services for the quality of life of
the inhabitants. It is also important not to
underestimate the biodiversity, which is
linked, for example, to the presence of
parks and gardens, whether public or
private. In the area of study, these
environmental components favour the
maintenance or activation of important bioconnections between natural and urban
contexts.
Presov, Slovakia
Context 3 – Extensive rural hills
Context character
The “extensive rural hill” contexts and the
“forested hill and/or low mountain
complex” contexts form a nearly
inextricable mosaic in which the
ecological relationships, whether
structural or functional, are very intense.
Landscape Feature
Agricultural area within the "Zempleni
Tajvedelmi Korzet" Park
Settlement linked to agricultural activity
tends to develop in an arterial way along
the principal routes. It rarely assumes the
character of sparse houses disconnected
from the road network.
Ecological Feature
Zempleni Tajvedelmi Korzet, Hungary
The residual forested formations present
in the former are physically connected to
the latter, and many faunal species
define their habitat using both. In these
cases, management should keep in mind
both the property of the individual
contexts and those emerging on a higher
level of integration in a trans-scale
approach.
Context 3 – Extensive rural hills
Context character
Agricultural areas with low energetic
input and low environmental impact are
pointed out as places of great ecological
interest. In these cases, an elevated
heterogeneity of contextual components
emerges, forming a very articulated
mosaic.
Landscape Feature
Less steep areas of the hill/mountain
area are cultivated extensively.
Parcelling the property (with holdings of
0.5 ha per farm) has not favoured the
activation of mechanization processes.
Ecological Feature
These context includes the ideal
conditions for the permanence of typical
biocenoses in agricultural ecosystems,
which can find a large variety of
opportunities, means, and processing
times congruent with their existence.
Maramures, Romania
C3 Component – Rural Village
Component character
The settled area is characterized by the
coexistence of historical wood buildings
of monumental prestige, protected by
UNESCO and from recent low-quality
building in which some roofs are even
made of materials containing asbestos.
Ecological Feature
Rural villages undertake a very important
function in improving ecological assets in
the system of relationships between
essential components. Moreover,
maintaining the population in rural
environments favours the preservation of
biodiversity. The abandonment of
traditional cultivation, like the
transformation in intensive cultivation on
the opposite side, provokes a strong
reduction in biodiversity. This is
considered one of the most alarming
phenomena for conservation (see the EU
Biodiversity Strategy for 2020).
Budesti, Romania
Context 4 – Forested hills and/or low mountain complexes
Context character
The steepest hill- and mountainsides are
covered in forest; there are no evident
signs of coppicing. However, large
clearings of particular landscape worth
break up the forested areas and highlight a
fluidity of forest/pastoral use.
Cisna Forestry Railway , Poland
C4 Component– Forest
Component character
Timber tree forests in hillside areas.
Border zone between Hungary and
Slovakia.
Landscape Feature
.
This component of the landscape, in which
natural components dominate, will
constitute the “Zempléni protected
landscape”.
Ecological Feature
Poloniny National Park, Slovakia
The diversity of ecological situations and
management methods ensures that the
forested hill and/or low mountain
complexes”, which are apparently
monotonous, are in reality distinguished
both from the vegetation and structural
points of view. These contexts, overall,
assume high ecological value, hosting
important populations of important faunal
species such as the wolf (Canis lupus),
brown bear (Ursus arctos), and lynx (Lynx
lynx). In this sense, they hold a function
that goes well beyond the regional scale,
placing themselves as one of the
landmarks of the European ecological
network.
C4 Component– Access point
Component character
The presence of extensive forests that nearly
continuously cover the hills, even at modest
altitudes, is one of the principal characteristics
of the Carpathian area. The forests, mostly
broad-leaf trees, are in large part subject to
forest management, even if it should not be
forgotten that close to the border between
Poland, Slovakia, and Ukraine, there are some
of the last, residual, branches of old-growth
beech forests present in Europe. UNESCO has
recognized the site as a World Heritage Site
(Primeval Beech Forests of the Carpathians
and the Ancient Beech Forests of Germany).
Landscape Feature
.
The narrow-gauge railway infrastructures, originally
constructed to support mining and/or lumber
activities, are now used for a touristic scope. New
components of the landscape have been created,
consisting of exchanges near intersections of
roadways and railways.
Ecological features
the tourism development should duly recognize the
fragility of the ecological balance of these fragments,
which, because of their small size, are already
subject to the typical perturbations of isolated
ecosystems.
Cisna Forestry Railway, Poland
Context 5 – Alpine
Context character
The “Alpine” contexts are characterized by
the close penetration of natural and
anthropic elements that are fused to give
rise to a very peculiar ecological system.
In this image, interactions between the
high-altitude rocky and grassland
environments, some areas of very high
naturality, and the settled valley floor
moulded by forestry and agricultural
activities characterize the ecosystem.
Landscape features
Three spectacular components of this
extraordinary landscape context can be
glimpsed: the bare rocky walls that tower
above the tree line; the sides in which
forests or grassy areas can be seen
according to the steepness; and the
settlements and infrastructure of the valley
floor.
Ecological features
Piz la Ila, Alta Badia, Italy
Conservation of the environmental
heritage of these areas is closely linked to
the maintenance of a correct balance
between anthropic pressure and natural
dynamics.
C5 Component – Trasport connections
Component character
The development of tourism activities, often
linked to winter sports, has profoundly altered
the balance of important parts of the European
mountains, such as in the case of the
Slovakian side of the Tatra Mountains.
Landscape features
This infrastructure node represents a
prevalently anthropic landscape component,
typifying the study area. The presence of winter
stations for Alpine skiing, consolidated in the
past, is supported by railway links that allow for
exchange with ecomobility means.
Ecological features
The development of settlements and
infrastructure necessary to undertake these
activities, such as ski lifts and slopes, have
inserted within these originally natural contexts
anthropic elements that exert significant
pressure on the ecosystems.
Starý Smokovec , Tatra Mountains, Slovakia.
Context 6 – Valley with intensive agriculture
Context character
Most anthropic pressure on the ecological
system tends to concentrate on valley floor
areas due to particularly favourable
conditions.
Landscape features
The structure of the landscape is
determined by rolling hill morphology
limited by steeper mountain sides. The
agricultural network is long. Linear
infrastructures, for the most part, are twolane and connect urban centres. Railway
lines run along the most important centres.
Industrial areas are present, even of
significant size.
Ecological features
In this case, it is evident how, next to
scarce branches of natural vegetation, its
use is prevalently for intensive agriculture.
Biocenoses have little chance of
developing in a balanced way, and those
species generally able to adapt best to
structurally simple ecosystems tend to
become dominant. The situation is made
even more critical by the presence of
industrial plants, whose impact on the
environment is certainly significant.
Kosice, Slovakia
Context 6 – Valley with intensive agriculture
Context character
The rural characters of the valley floors,
also in situations that are particularly wellconserved under the environmental profile,
are eaten away by urban sprawl.
Landscape features
Steep mountainsides can be glimpsed,
which delimit and enclose the rural hill
landscape area rich with settlements,
parcelled agrarian areas, and service
infrastructure for the agricultural activities.
Ecological features
The development of settlements,
especially when they become arterial,
constitutes an obstacle capable of eroding
the system of connections and weakening
their ecological functions. In this case, it is
evident how the rural area is called to carry
out a role of ecological linking between the
forest complexes at its sides.
Presov Regiona, Slovakia.
C6 Components– Valley with intensive agriculture
Components character
The systems of relationships that “valley
floors with intensive agriculture” establish
with their surrounding contexts can be
complex. The most frequent case is the
gradual movement towards the “extensive
rural hill” context.
Landscape features
The valley floor of the hill/mountain areas
hosts contemporary settlements that may
even be large and which signal, from the
compositional and formal point of view, a
sharp detachment from the surrounding
rural landscape.
Ecological features
In such a case, significant ecological
relationships dictated by the divisions of
the same components remain. In other,
rarer cases, such as the one shown in the
image, movement to a completely different
context, the “Alpine” context of the Tatra
Mountains, is highlighted by a clear
discontinuity. In this case, the theme is to
understand the functional relationships
established between the cultivated plain
areas and the forest formations creeping
into the valley floor from the hills.
Poprad, Slovakia.
C6 Components– Valley with intensive agriculture
Landscape features
The industrial complex on the edge of
Lake Čanianské jazerá in an area adjacent
to the urban centre of Košice represents a
very “strong” element decidedly
disconnected from the humid landscape in
this context.
Ecological features
Among the components of valley floor
contexts, we highlight the humid areas,
whether natural or artificial, that together
with waterways qualify the territory from an
ecological point of view. The ecological
richness of these environments is evident,
even when they are positioned close to
settled areas. To fully express their
potential, however, it is necessary that
management recognizes the multiple
functions they can carry out, whether of a
recreational or strictly environmental type.
Nearby Kosice
Context 7 – Mountain valleys
Context character
The expansion of valley floor settlements
is a diffuse phenomenon in Alpine
contexts.
Landscape features
The plain areas, or valleys, and less steep
areas of the Alpine landscape become
more sensitive to the phenomenon of
settlement sprawl.
Ecological features
The image shows how cultivation has been
reduced significantly in large plain areas to
make way for settlements. If not duly
managed, this tendency leads, at least
locally, to direct contact between forest
areas and constructed areas, with negative
effects for biocenoses closely linked to the
former, given that many species often use
agricultural fields as sources of food.
Gesause, Austria
Context 7 – Mountain valleys
Context character
In the valley floor areas of the “Alpine”
context, a complex mosaic is frequently
observed, in which different environmental
components interact in an indissoluble
way.
Landscape features
Rising in altitude, most areas that are less
steep are settled, especially close to areas
dedicated to tourism linked to Alpine skiing
and, more recently, to hiking.
Ecological features
Corvara in Badia, Alta Badia, Italy
It can easily be observed how agriculture
extends around the core, originally linked
to agriculture and forestry and today
expanded to tourism development, which,
proceeding along the slopes, tends to
progressively fragment due to penetration
into the forest, which becomes continuous
on the higher slopes. It is evident that this
equilibrium could disappear if settlement
expansion should lead to the welding
together of inhabited areas. At this point,
an ecological barrier between the two
sides of the valley would be created.
C8 Component – Mountain forest complexes
Component character
Landscape features
Forested zones occupy the steepest
mountainsides below the tree line. Some
valley floor areas are used for
agricultural/forest activities.
Ecological features
Forest complexes, which typically
characterize the entire “Alpine” context,
giving it a natural aspect, are in reality
subject to intense management that has
radically changed their structure and
composition. In particular, the diffusion of
conifers has been favoured to the
detriment of native broad-leaf trees due to
their greater commercial value. The
ecological effects of this should be studied
carefully.
Gesause, Austria
C8 Component – Mountain forest complexes
Component character
Landscape features
Limited sparse settlements are present at
high altitudes on slopes where the
steepness allows pastures to be used to
raise cattle.
Ecological features
In areas dominated by forest, such as the
Alpine areas, the presence of residual
traditionally cultivated patches represents
an important enrichment of the ecological
offer, allowing for the permanence of
peculiar and ever more rare biocenoses.
Open spaces dedicated to agriculture are
a fundamental component of the “Alpine”
context, which therefore ensures their
permanence, becoming an objective of
primary importance for the conservation of
flora and fauna.
Gesause, Austria
Context 8 – Mountain forest complexes
LANDSCAPE FEATURES
Forested zones occupy the
steepest mountainsides below the
tree line. Some valley floor areas
are used for agricultural/forest
activities.
Limited sparse settlements are
present at high altitudes on slopes
where the steepness allows
pastures to be used to raise
cattle..
Austria
Context 8 – Mountain forest complexes
ECOLOGIC AL FEATURES
Forest complexes, which typically
characterize the entire “Alpine” context,
giving it a natural aspect, are in reality
subject to intense management that has
radically changed their structure and
composition. In particular, the diffusion
of conifers has been favoured to the
detriment of native broad-leaf trees due
to their greater commercial value. The
ecological effects of this should be
studied carefully.
In areas dominated by forest, such as
the Alpine areas, the presence of
residual traditionally cultivated patches
represents an important enrichment of
the ecological offer, allowing for the
permanence of peculiar and ever more
rare biocenoses.
Open spaces dedicated to agriculture
are a fundamental component of the
“Alpine” context, which therefore
ensures their permanence, becoming an
objective of primary importance for the
conservation of flora and fauna.
Poloniny National Park, Slovakia
Defining the model….
Through direct sampling, landscape features of the various contexts
have emerged. When defining the model, it will be necessary to
measure the evaluations relative to the different transport systems,
both existing and programmed, on the basis of these initial
characterizations, with particular attention to:
- the landscape character of the site (protected areas or other areas of
natural or landscape value) , its fragility, its carrying capacity, and the
elements present that detract from the landscape or environment;
- current ways to reach the site, evaluating their possible critical limits;
- intersections and continuity within slow systems at the site in
question and fast systems to reach or cross it;
- the contiguity or proximity between the site and other areas with
more accentuated transformational dynamics.
Poloniny National Park, Slovakia