as pdf

f a c u l t y o f t e c h n o l o g y , p o l i c y an d manag e m e nt
X/2 18 06 2012
P3 Caspar Chorus’s Regret Model applied to healthcare - P4 TPM and the TU
Delft Climate Institute - P6 Trials with blended learning and online distance
learning - P7 Professor Profile: Ben Ale - P8 Alumni in retrospect: Yvo Saanen
and Willem van Valkenburg - Nick Venderbosch studying in Japan
Maasvlakte 2
Cluster evolution
digitally charted
by TPM
The Maasvlakte 2 project: still only a construction
site, eventually to become a 1,000-hectare highquality industrial zone for container transfer,
distribution and the chemical industry, with deep
water access. The Port of Rotterdam Authority is
currently facing some complex choices.
This involves asking what the optimal design is of
the new port area, for both the present and the
future? TPM is helping to weigh up the consider­
ations and is building a simulation program for the
future of Maasvlakte 2. It is doing so as part of the
programme ‘Next Generation Port Infra, Powered
by Maasvlakte 2’, a partnership between the Port
of Rotterdam Authority and the Next Generation
Infrastructures foundation.
The port of Rotterdam is outgrowing itself. Expansion is essential
if the future position of one of Europe's major ports is to be
guaranteed. That is why, in 2008, work started on Maasvlakte 2,
an extension stretching into the sea, to the west of the present
Maasvlakte. Bordering on 20-metre deep waters, Maasvlakte
2 is accessible to the largest seafaring vessels. The expansion
will result in a doubling of the capacity for container transfer.
Connections to the hinterland are excellent, which is why
companies are eager to establish themselves at Maasvlakte 2.
“Greater consideration is given to the selection of candidates than
ever before,” explains Rob Stikkelman, director of the Centre for
Port Innovation and Regional Development. Together with Chris
Davis (post-doc), Gert-Jan Stolk (project leader Gamelab) and
Igor Nikolic (assistant professor, expert Agent-Based Modelling),
Stikkelman makes up the project team representing TPM, which
addresses the question: how can we convert the work of the Port
of Rotterdam Authority into a simulation program? “Our objective
is to develop a simulation model for the employees of the
Port Authority. With this model they should be able to provide
insight into the influence of scenarios and decisions of the Port
Authority on the evolutionary development of industrial clusters
on Maasvlakte 2 by means of accepted performance indicators.”
Strategic choices
The Port Authority is an expert in developing industrial port
clusters. However, the strategic choices that have to be made
for Maasvlakte 2 are being impeded by various uncertain factors.
Examples of these are market developments (should we reckon
with biofuel or not?), sustainability criteria, technological
development, policy changes, but also the factor of chance.
Moreover, the establishment of new and existing facilities can
have a positive and a negative influence on cluster formation.
Stikkelman: “In addition, there is another interesting area of
tension: in order to realise a healthy industrial area, healthy
links are necessary between the various companies in the area.
However, the Port Authority also has to remain in financial good
health, and that is why global sea trade is especially important.
The challenge, therefore, is to form healthy clusters, with a
healthy Port Authority. In short, today's choices will have a huge
influence on the uncertain developments of tomorrow. Therefore,
managing the development of Maasvlakte 2 for the short and
long term is an extremely complex business. Our challenge lies
in developing a program that is not too detailed but not too
simple either.”
The models are consciously made as complicated as possible:
all conceivable circumstances that could arise are tested in this
simulation of everyday reality. A computer model calculates the
developments. This makes it clear what the consequences would
be for the port in the event that CO2 emissions become extremely
expensive, for example. But also the impact it would have if
coal and oil were no longer used as fuel. The computer model
shows what effects such decisions could have. Stikkelman: “Just
to be clear: we are not predicting the future, we are predicting
perhaps as much as 3,000 futures. In reality, we outline possible
scenarios, through which the Port Authority gains insight into
the consequences of decisions.”
TPM uses Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) for research into cluster­
ing and the formation of infrastructures. After the input, output
and behaviour rules of relevant actors (agents) have been speci­
fied, the ABM technology allows the virtual actors themselves
to make and sever relationships over a period of time. In an
Agent-Based Model, the relevant parties are described as digital
actors, the so-called agents. An agent's specifications include
individual details or properties, and interaction rules with other
“Today's choices will have a
huge influence on the uncertain
developments of tomorrow.
Therefore, managing the
development of Maasvlakte 2
for the short and long term is
an extremely complex business.
Our challenge lies in developing
a program that is not too detailed
but not too simple either..”
agents and external factors. Examples of agents are: owners
of a not yet established company for storing and transferring
biomass, an established electricity plant, a transport infrastructure
for CO2, a global oil trader or the Port Authority itself. Examples
of interactions are: buying raw materials, exchanging semimanufactured products with each other, connecting to a utility
service or establishing a company at a certain location.
continued on page 2
2
Reform
continuation of page 1
Maasvlakte 2
Cluster evolution
digitally charted by TPM
Spring was keeping us waiting. Meanwhile in The Hague,
Digital clusters
for five political parties spring did seem to have arrived
Chris Davis: “A model simulation begins by determining the
starting configuration, the list of candidates wishing to establish
a company and a scenario, for example rising prices for fossil
fuels and falling prices for sustainable resources, combined with
unchanging CO2 rights. At set times, over a period of decades,
the agents will determine whether the conditions are interesting
enough to establish a company, to engage or disengage with
other agents and to create new infrastructures, etc. They even
contemplate whether they should leave the cluster. This is how
a digital, industrial port cluster evolves. Performance indicators,
such as port dues, rents, capital value, added value and
emissions, provide insight into the development of a cluster's
quality over a period of decades.”
after all. The much-debated joint agreement promised
to save twelve billion euros. The Netherlands could
breathe freely again: we would achieve the 3% threshold
for 2013 demanded by Brussels. Reform once stood for
decisiveness. Today reform is presented in opposition
to frugality. It appears above all to be a way of delaying
decisions. To call for reform, for a plan, for long-term
solutions - without ever delivering them yourself - is
a way of not having to choose what to economise on
or which issues should be paid for by the community.
We know we have fewer resources, but cannot bring
ourselves to take the consequences. We prefer to ‘reform’
ourselves out of trouble. The result of which is a rise in
(national) debt, VAT and other taxes - with a promise to
introduce reform through measures that will reinvigorate
the economy.
Reform is a process strewn with paradoxes. There
The simulation tool provides long-term ratings for the dynamically
evolving industrial clusters for various trends. Stikkelman: “There­
fore, the simulation tool does not provide future predictions, but
explores possible futures. In the model, the agents generally
behave autonomously, but they can be influenced by Port Autho­
ri­ty policy. In this way, it is possible to gain insight into the
long-term effects of short-term encouragement of the biobased
chemical industry. The simulation tool is intended to support
the Port Authority in the development of the port for many
years. We hope to be able to deliver the software module in
the autumn of 2012.”
The challenge of the project lies in integrating the knowledge and
expertise of researchers and users in the field of industrial cluster
development. The very fact that the Port Authority is collaborating
with TPM in this, is due to the in-house expertise TPM has at its
disposal. Stikkelman: “It is vitally important to have a thorough
understanding of ABM and knowledge of how the port system
functions in order for the project to succeed. At TPM we have the
expertise to combine both fields of know­ledge. Moreover, the Port
Authority and TPM have already been collaborating for a number
of years. Personally, what I find particularly appealing about TPM's
role is that science is not the objective, but that we are engaged
in helping advance science. We are working on something that
can truly help society move forward.”
needs to be scope for this: reforms cost money, time,
energy and intelligent human resources. The piece of
wisdom, ‘never waste a good crisis’, only works in the
long term. And then often in the form of hindsight.
Crisis management on the other hand, is something for
the short term: management, control, stability. Reform
does not require a plan with finite goals, resources and
clear planning. Rather, it requires a vision regarding
the development of the system, and the capacity to
respond adaptively to the opportunities and possibilities
that are presented. Reforms take place in a process
of entrepreneurship, creativity and initiative, in which
cutbacks should serve to make room for innovation.
We can only partially understand a future that we create
ourselves. The piece of paper from central planning only
serves purposes of control and conservation.
Two years ago we announced to the faculty that the
Projects in the Port of Rotterdam
review procedure would possibly result in restructuring.
That moment has arrived. We need to restructure, not
Column
because a higher power - the Executive Board or the
European Commission - asks it of us. Reform is necessary
TPM’s research institute, Next Generation Infrastructures (NGInfra), and the Port of Rotterdam Authority have
been collaborating in the programme ‘Next Generation Port Infra, Powered by Maasvlakte 2’ since September
2010. In addition to the simulation of cluster developments, the projects being worked on until 2013 include:
for TPM too if it is to retain its competitive position in
the international arena. It is no different for TPM than
for the rest of the Netherlands. Europe, and for us the
international research environment in the making, is
the system in which we operate - with or without the
inclusion of Greece. We want to prepare ourselves for
Europe 2020, for large-scale flagship programmes and
future ICT. That is why our task and discipline-driven
organisation must make way for educational and researchbased collaboration that is interdisciplinary and issuedriven. I see six key questions that should inform the
TPM perspective: 1. Grand challenges: what is really the
problem? 2. Values: how important is it? 3. Governance:
who is responsible? 4. Design: can we solve it? 5. Power:
is it achievable and feasible? 6. Impact: what are the
effects and the side effects? The question in the coming
months is not ‘to which part of the organisation do I
belong?’ The question is: ‘what is my contribution towards
the further growth and development of the intellectual
production process of TPM?’
Prof. Theo Toonen, Dean
Flexibility in port development and port management: which institutional and organisational facilities
can be developed and implemented to make port development and port management more flexible?
The development and preservation of a syngas infrastructure
Sustainable accessibility of goods transport: in order to guarantee access to the Port Authority, this
project aims at an integral approach, in which the structure of the governance framework and the position of
the Port of Rotterdam Authority are formulated/reformulated and analysed in relation to the position of other
stakeholders.
Serous game ‘Asset Life Cycle Management’: the Port of Rotterdam Authority is currently implementing
Asset Life Cycle Management (ALM); the implementation project is at different stages within the organisation.
This project measures the Port Authority's level of ‘maturity’ in the area of ALM and contracting (IPC, DBM).
Masterplan+: this project aims to develop an adaptive approach for the long-term development of Maas­
vlakte 2. The intended result is a prototype for a new generation Masterplan, and knowledge relating to the
applicability of the principles of adaptive planning.
Apps in the port: the objective is to develop applications quickly and flexibly on smart devices for retrieving
and enriching information in order to meet present and future user-demand for information. The apps offer
users access to static data concerning aspects such as infrastructure, locations for transfer and storage, and
real-time data on the use of that infrastructure, such as waiting times, transport movements and container
locations.
Flexible capturing of wind-energy peaks: what are the technical and institutional possibilities for utilising
an excess of wind energy, taking into account technology, economics and the parties who will ultimately
manage it? The ‘green’ wind energy will result in sustainable industrial processes.
BeneGrids: the objective of BeneGrids (more benefits from grids) is to provide more insight into a number
of important lines (petroleum, related products and the associated energy and CO2 lines) that run through
the Rotterdam port area.
Backbone project flexibility: how can infrastructure be designed so flexibly that new infrastructure does
not age quickly?
3D Spatial Infra: designing a fitting 3D-infrastructure for information management supporting present and
future activities of the Port of Rotterdam.
3
CA S P A R C H O R U S’S RE GRE T MODE L AP P L IE D TO HEALTHC ARE
Minimising regret regarding
medical choices
Possible retrospective regret determines the
choice someone makes. This is the premise that
Caspar Chorus of TPM based his regret model on,
an econometric model that analyses and predicts
choice behaviour. The model has proved a success:
it is being used in the fields of mobility, marketing
and even in the dating industry, as an alternative
to the traditional utility model. Collaboration with
the Erasmus Medical Centre has resulted in Chorus
being given the opportunity to apply his model to
the healthcare sector too.
Choice experiments
The research data came from Esther de Bekker-Grob, healthcare
economist at the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam. Her
doctoral research focused on the choice behaviour of patients.
For this, De Bekker-Grob carried out two choice experiments:
into the treatment of osteoporosis and into HPV vaccination (see
context). She analysed the datasets with the utility model, which
is based on the idea that people choose the option that produces
the greatest benefit for them. Chorus then approached her for a
reanalysis with the regret model.
Hospital policy
Chorus: “With choice models you first analyse the choice
behaviour: to what extent do people allow certain factors to
influence their decision-making? Consider, for example, the
way in which medicine is administered versus the length of the
treatment. Then you can also predict what effect changes in
those factors would have on the choice behaviour, for example
what the likelihood would be that people will choose treatment
A if something is found that reduces existing side effects. In time,
a hospital can use these kinds of predictions to deliver the care
that is best suited to the patient's wishes.
Justification
Chorus expected that his regret-based model would be a
good alternative to the utility model in cases of medical choice.
“I know from psychological theory and experience that it is a
type of choice that is well-suited to my model, being difficult and
consequential. People also tend to feel a greater duty to justify
their choices where health matters are concerned: can you explain
to your partner or child why you have chosen a certain treatment?
It would appear that the regret model performs relatively well in
such cases.”
Compromise
When the researchers compared the analysis results of the utility
model and the regret model, it proved that, statistically, the latter
did in fact match the data slightly better. But what was even more
significant than the difference in so-called ‘model fit’ was the
difference in predictive results. Chorus: “With the regret-based
model, it would appear that people tend more towards comprise:
they do not go for the most effective treatment and neither do
they go for the most severe treatment. The utility model predicts
more extreme considerations.
The result of the
regret model concurs
with empirical evi­
dence from the field
of psycho­logy that
indicates that a com­
promise is easier to
explain. These analyses
form a good basis for
more research on the
subject.”
2012, 2012, VIII,
55 p. 11 illus.
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Osteoporosis
HPV vaccination
Imagine you are suffering from osteoporosis
and your physician outlines three options.
Treatment A involves tablets that you take
daily; the treatment lasts a year and is very
effective: the possibility that you will break
your hip is zero. Drawback: you will experience
a lot of nausea. Treatment B has little to no
side effects, but it lasts three times as long and
is less effective. In addition to which you have
to inject medication weekly. The third option
is to do nothing, which means you will almost
certainly break your hip within ten years.
Which would you choose?
Imagine you are faced with the choice of having
your nine-year-old daughter vaccinated against HPV,
which can cause cervical cancer. You have three
options. The most effective is to vaccinate now:
the possibility she will get this form of cancer within
twenty years is almost zero. But the possibility of
side effects is considerably greater. If you put the
vaccination on hold until she is fourteen, there are
fewer side effects, but the vaccine will provide less
protection for a shorter period. The third option is to
do nothing, which means a greater chance that your
daughter will develop cervical cancer.
Which would you choose?
Tutorial on regret model published
In mid-April, Caspar Chorus of TPM published the guidebook,
Random Regret-based Discrete Choice Modeling: A Tutorial,
with Springer. By means of examples, students, lecturers,
researchers and others interested in choice modelling can
discover the background, potential and limitations of the
regret-minimisation model.
Regret model incorporated
in software package
In the spring of 2012, Caspar Chorus's regret-based model
was incorporated in the latest release of NLOGIT, a leading
econometric software package. Marketing companies and large
corporations use this software, to determine the optimum
price for their products for example. Until Chorus's
regret model was incorporated, these software
packages were always based on models based
on the principle of utility maximisation.
lft University of
C.G. Chorus, De
e Netherlands
Technology, Th
Caspar Chorus of TPM is receiving a Vidi grant
worth ¤ 800,000 from the Netherlands Organisation
for Scientific Research (NWO). NWO awards this
subsidy to researchers who have demonstrated that
they have developed innovative ideas. The funding
will enable Chorus to continue working on his regret
model, which he developed thanks to the Veni grant
he received in the summer of 2010.
In his follow-up research, Caspar will focus on
building a quantitative mobility model for the
whole of the Netherlands. He is also developing
a regret-based theory for cost-benefit analyses.
This would make it possible to calculate the
effects of major infrastructure projects in
terms of prosperity.
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CASPAR CHORUS
Dr Caspar Chorus (1977)
is a systems policy engineer
employed at TPM as associate
professor. He studied Systems
Engineering & Policy Analysis and was
awarded his PhD with distinction in 2007.
4
TPM and
the TU
The TU Delft Climate Institute
was officially launched in March 2012.
Under the leadership of Herman Russchenberg,
cloud expert and professor of Remote Sensing of the
Environment at the faculty of EEMCS, the institute integrates all TU Delft’s in-house climaterelated expertise.
Russchenberg: “In this institute we want to incorporate all TU Delft research that involves
the combination of data and climate. There are scientists working with climate data spread
across the whole of TU Delft. They all need each other: an urban water manager, for example,
cannot do without the results of climate models. By bringing such parties together at an
earlier stage, we expect to cultivate increased mutual understanding, at the very least.
We also hope that new research questions will arise from unexpected combinations of
disciplines.”
The institute focuses on four themes: Climate information and policy; Extreme
weather and the city; Aerosols, radiation and clouds; Observation and
validation of rising sea levels and mass transport. Researchers from TPM are
involved in various themes. We spoke to three of them.
Framing in the
climate debate
Van Bueren: “We all know the doom
scenarios of Al Gore: our country is
in danger of flooding because the water level is rising. That is a
frame in the climate debate that plays on fear. We are interested
in how that actually works, and how framing influences policy.
The climate debate is an interesting case study for TPM due to
its administrative complexity, involving many different players
with a diversity of concerns, interests, goals and power.”
Van Bueren is also interested in the way in which scientists in
the Climate Institute experience the climate debate. “There is a
disparity between climate research and policy advice. Climate
research is fundamental: researchers want to understand how
something works. The nature of policy advice is that it is applied:
how can the knowledge be used to solve a problem? Scientists
are often reluctant to take that step from knowing how it works
to advising on policy, actually saying we ‘need to do this or the
other’, particularly if it is politically sensitive. And yet the public
and policy makers expect them to have a point of view. There
is not a climate meeting that passes without someone asking
about it. As public administration specialists, we can help the
fundamental scientists to develop insight into the way framing
works.”
Climate in the city
Ellen van Bueren is also working on the effects of climate
change for the urban environment and the way in which smart
urban planning can improve the climate in a city. Van Bueren:
“I focus on the public administration aspects of the planning,
construction and management of a sustainable, climate-resilient
city. Many of the issues relating to climate in the city are wellknown, and quite often there are already solutions at hand:
techniques and technologies for sustainable building abound.
However, the most pressing question here is who will take
responsibility for this problem.”
An example of the impact climate change can have on the
environment in the city is the development of so-called ‘urban
heat islands’. The temperature in the city is easily four degrees
warmer than in surrounding areas, partly because there are many
heat-absorbing surfaces like asphalt (see graph). The air quality
is affected because the heat can not dissipate. Van Bueren:
“Life-threatening situations can therefore arise under extreme
temperature. In the Netherlands, there has been limited research
into the effects, but in France, for example, there is data that
shows that during the heatwave in the summer of 2003, fifteen
thousand more people died than usual, mainly elderly people.
The temperature in and around the house appeared to be a major
risk factor.”
The Netherlands experiences other problems in this area - with
rainfall, for example. Van Bueren: “The Rainfall research carried
out by the TU Delft Climate Institute, among others, indicates
that there is a high degree of variation in the amount of rainfall,
even within a city. You have to ensure that a city is able to deal
with those differences, both now and in future, in order
to prevent negative effects such as overflowing drains.”
Solutions are being conceived for problems like these,
and quite often they are already available. Van Bueren:
“It would appear that a great deal of the heat-island
problem can be solved with lots of greenery and water in
the city, and with shadow through smart constructions.
Broad gutters and green roofs collect the water more
Late Afternoon Temperature
Ellen van Bueren is assistant pro­fes­
sor at the Policy, Organi­sation, Law
& Gaming section. Apart from the
ef­fects of climate change for the ur­
ban environment, Van Bueren is also
interested in the way in which climate
information is being presented in the
public debate, or in other words the
role of ‘framing’ in the climate debate.
Rural
Commercial
Urban
Residential
Suburban
Residential
Temperature profile above a city. In the city it is 4°C warmer
than in the surrounding rural area. This phenomenon is called
urban heat island. Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab,
Heat Island Group.
effectively and allow it to drain away more gradually.” However,
there is another, typically TPM, problem: who’s responsibility is
it and who will be implementing the available technological
innovations?
According to Van Bueren, it is the government who are often
looked to in such cases. “People say, let them solve it. However,
central governments are very reluctant and local authorities have
neither the capacity nor the knowledge to do so. A void opens
up: who will jump in?” At the moment there are many small
fragmented initiatives. The neighbour erects solar panels on his
roof, a farmer installs a fermentation system and a city council
constructs a floating residential area. Institutions that can oversee
these initiatives and that can initiate or coordinate them do not
exist at present. Van Bueren: “Perhaps they will never come: it is
very complex material. But until that time the climate-resilient city
benefits from research into what works, and support from the
existing initiatives that are functioning well.”
5
Delft Climate Institute
Climate change and
electricity networks
Impression of the hanging gardens in the
sustainably-designed neighbourhood Erasmusveld
in The Hague. Image: Arjan van Timmeren,
Atelier2T Haarlem
Andrew Bollinger is a PhD student at
the Energy and Industry section and
participates in the INCAH project.
His doctoral research is concerned
with the effects of climate change
on infrastructures, and on electricity
networks in particular. He produces
models which he can use to explore
the effects of different scenarios.
“We hope that this knowledge will
enable us to develop climate-resilient
infrastructures in the future.”
Climate change places new demands on the infrastructure.
Bollinger: “Currently there is great interest in sustainable
electricity networks - based on wind energy, for example.
However, these energy resources are much more susceptible
to climate change than traditional forms. Just suppose there is
a decrease in wind frequency or strength. The energy production
of a coal-powered plant would not be affected, but that of a wind
farm would be. What I am trying to achieve with my computer
models is to provide insight into the precise implications of
changing circumstances.”
Our knowledge of the expected effects of climate change on
infrastructures is still only limited. We do not know, for example,
how existing electricity networks will respond to changing peak
loads. Bollinger: “In the Netherlands, we consume more energy
in winter than in summer, and the network can cope with that.
But what would happen if, during a hot summer, everyone went
out and bought an air conditioner, and then continued using
it - something that also happened in the 1990s when all cars
were fitted with air conditioners. Can the system cope in such
circumstances? Or would we need to adapt the network? How
should we go about that and how quickly? We use the models by
entering various options and interventions and then tracing what
could happen via simulation.”
Preparing the Netherlands for climate change
Gerard Dijkema is associate pro­fes­sor
in the Energy and Indus­try section,
where he focuses on analysing and
managing the development of largescale infrastructure networks and
systems. Dijkema is connected to
the TU Delft Climate Institute through
the INCAH project (In­fra­­structure Net­
works Cli­­mate Adaptation & Hotspots).
Dijkema: “The consortium is looking
to answer the question of what are
sensible strate­gies for the Netherlands
to undertake if we want to adapt our infrastructure networks to
climate change.”
The researchers are using current insights into climate change,
developed by climate researchers from universities and institutes
such as the Royal Dutch Meteorological Insti­tute (KNMI), as
their starting point. Dijkema: “These tell us that climate change
in the Netherlands, for example, can lead to an increase in the
average temperature, wetter winters, extreme precipitation
and temperatures and exten­ded periods of drought.” The TPM
researchers are looking into what the actual impact of climate
change is, and the effect this has on our infrastructures.
Dijkema: “An increase in temperature, for example, produces a
greater demand for cooling, not only for consumers but also for
industry. At the same time, electricity production can become
restricted when there is a shortage of cooling water. Together,
this results in a change to the burden on the electricity network,
which is something we want to provide insight into.”
designing, managing and developing infrastructure systems?’
We approach this by focusing on management, modification and
maintenance, asset management, and on the network structure.
We are looking for resilient systems that allow disruptions to be
restored locally so that they do not spread unchecked. And we are
also researching how policy and regulations can be implemented
in such a way as to enable these systems to develop.”
Another important aspect in the research of Dijkema and his
colleagues is the interrelationship of infrastructures (energy,
water, communi­ca­tions, traffic). “Extreme gales can cause
damage to overhead electricity lines and connections to be
lost as a result. But that is not all. Trains run on
electricity, the signalling systems on the track use
electricity and are dependent on ICT. Relatively
small disruptions in the electricity networks,
therefore, can have a great effect on other
infrastructures. This is something else
we want to research, so that we can
eventually advise on the development
of infrastructures that are able to
withstand climatic disturbances.”
NorNed
NorNed 2
COBRA
(Denmark )
Eemshaven
Weiwerd
Ber gum
Diele
Vierverlaten
Meeden
Louwsmeer
Zeyerveen
Oudehaske
Hoogeveen
En s
Hessenweg
Zwolle
Lelystad
Beverwijk
Hengel o
Gronau (Germany )
Diemen
Arnhem
Wateringen
Bleiswijk
BritNe d
(Great Britain )
Waddinxveen
Doetinchem
Dodewaa rd
Maasvlakt e
Krimpen
Wesel (Germany)
Crayestein
Geertruidenbe rg
Boxmeer
Eindhoven
Borssele
Weert
The issue is of great importance. Dijkema: “Many people do not
realise how dependent we are on electricity, for example. If that
should fail then everything stops working: internet, transport
systems, cooling... You will be faced with a food problem in
a matter of days. Therefore the question at the core of our
research is ‘how can we take climate change into account when
Van Eyck
(Belgium)
Zandvliet
(Belgium)
TenneT Grid Map (2011)
Gramme
(Belgium)
Maasbracht
Rommerskir chen (Germany)
Siersdorf (Germany )
6
In short
Royal Decoration for
Alfred Kleinknecht
Professor Alfred Kleinknecht, professor in Economics
of Innovation at TPM, was appointed a Knight in the
Order of Orange-Nassau in The Hague at the end of
April. Kleinknecht received the decoration for services
to science and for services rendered and commitment
to Dutch society.
Roeser and Van de Poel
Antoni van Leeuwenhoek
professors
This spring, Sabine Roeser and Ibo van de Poel were
appointed Antoni van Leeuwenhoek professors by
TU Delft. Both are connected to TPM's Philosophy
section. Roeser's work includes research into the role
of emotions in technology, while Van de Poel conducts
research into the social benefits and risks of technology.
The aim of the Antoni van Leeuwenhoek chairs at TU
Delft is to promote young academics who produce
excellent work to the position of Professor at an early
stage so that they can develop their academic careers
to the fullest possible extent.
Yao-Hua Tan speaker
at TEDxBinnenhof
The iTunesU-channel of TU Delft
TPM EDUC ATI O N 3.0
Trials with blended learning
and online distance learning
You start a thread on the Blackboard forum on
Online distance learning
Agent-Based modelling. You assess a fellow
While blended learning is primarily directed at the Bachelor's
programme, the online distance-learning project primarily
targets aspiring Master's students from abroad and from the
business community. Students who want to acquaint themselves
with a Master's programme and professionals who want to
ad­vance their knowledge can follow modules where and when
it suits them.
student's paper online and a video shows you
how to make a decision tree. And during a tutorial,
a lecturer draws an old-fashioned explanatory
TPM professor of ICT, Yao-Hua Tan, will be speaking
at the inaugural TEDxBinnenhof about ‘Boosting
logistics with IT innovation’. TEDx is an international
event at which thinkers and doers with good ideas
hold a short and above all stimulating talk (‘TED-talk’).
TEDxBinnenhof will be organised for the first time on
25 June. The event will take place in the Knights’ Hall
in The Hague.
diagram, only now on an interactive whiteboard
that saves the drawing so you no longer have to
copy it. This is what a following SEPAM degree
programme could look like in the future.
For more information, see: tedxbinnenhof.nl
The lecturers at TPM, themselves early adopters of new techno­
logy, are increasingly incorporating ICT applications into faceto-face teaching. TPM is also taking an active part in the TU
Delft-wide initiative to offer increasing numbers of courses online,
so-called OpenCourseWare. TPM recently succeeded in landing
two internal projects in the area of ICT in education: ‘blended
learning’ and ‘online distance learning’.
Dissertations
Blended learning
C atherine C hiong M e z a
Understanding Sociotechnical Change:
A System-NetworkAgent Approach,
1 June 2012
C . C . M . S tolwijk
Technology sourcing over
the technology life cycle,
28 March 2012
A . P arandian
Constructive Technology Assessment of Newly
Emerging Science and Technology Stimulating
Learning by Anticipation through Bridging Events,
12 March 2012
More information:
www.dissertaties.tbm.tudelft.nl
Blended learning is a mixture of online and offline education,
aimed at actively involving students in their learning process, both
inside and outside the classroom. Multimedia teaching materials,
online consultation hours and digital examinations are examples
of online education. By combining various teaching methods,
for example, it might be possible to create more opportunity for
questions and discussion during contact hours.
The faculty will use the forthcoming review of the Bachelor's
programme to integrate blended learning into the curriculum.
One of its aims is to make more intensive use of serious games,
videos and animations. Students could also develop course
material themselves by illustrating an application or by working
out a case study. The faculty has developed an online guide for
lecturers to draw inspiration from, with practical examples and
available ICT applications.
TPM has started making online variants of five courses from
the Master's programme in Engineering & Policy Analysis
(EPA), a programme in which the emphasis lies on analysing
and solving complex technological problems. In the coming
year, the EPA lecturers involved will develop course material,
which will be made available via internet. Trials involving online
participants from abroad and the business community will
follow at a later stage, to see whether it is also feasible to also
provide supervision, assessment and certification at a distance.
Not only can online distance learning serve as a source of
information for potential students, but the programme also
hopes to provide professionals with tailor-made education.
Experience has shown that although there is considerable
interest in part-time programmes, it often proves too
demanding to combine these with a job partly owing to
the physical attendance requirements. The benefit of pro­vi­
ding education to professionals can work both ways for the
pro­gramme: professionals can introduce issues they are faced
with and analyse and solve them with fellow students, while
lecturers can reuse the practical examples in their lectures.
ocw.tudelft.nl
www.tudelft.nl/blendedlearning
Examples of ICT in education
SMS voting in the lecture hall
Digital examinations
Video2Learn (instruction videos)
Collegerama
Social media
Wiki.tudelft.nl
Serious games and simulations
Peer review
(assessment of students by students)
Brainstorming software
7
Professor profile
N ame
P osition
Amsterdam subway system. An old PhD student from our group
wrote an excellent doctoral thesis on the subject, so I will be
sending them a copy of it. It takes up a lot of your time, but it is
part of the work and it something I enjoy.”
Professor of Safety Science and
Why Delft?
Disaster Abatement at TU Delft
“Delft asked me, ten years ago. I said yes, because I really
wanted to help build up the world-famous Delft safety group,
which was led by Andrew Hale at that time. Safety is an important
subject and there are still many problems that we need to solve.
With this group, you can contribute to finding solutions.”
Private life
“I am married and have two adult children from my first
marriage. One of my children lives in the Netherlands, the
other in the UK. I live in a flat in Delft during the week and in
the weekends I head to Rubigny, France, some fifty kilometres
above Reims.”
Favourite pastimes
“Playing the piano. My concert grand piano is in Rubigny and
I play on it as often as possible. I also enjoy doing odd jobs.
The house in France dates from 1830, so there is enough to do.
I do as much as possible myself: windows, gas, water, lights...
Actually, everything except the slippery slate roof, because that
is a headline I want to avoid: ‘Safety expert breaks neck after
falling from roof’.”
Most memorable moment in your
career
“Oh, I enjoyed it all. But, as far as my academic career goes,
I found my inaugural address a memorable event. A nice
combination of scientific content, a splendid ceremony and
a festive atmosphere. And my doctoral defence, at the very
beginning, was also a highlight.
Greatest challenge right now
“That is to ensure a proper continuation of the Safety Science
Group, which can rightly be called a challenge in these days of
ever shrinking budgets. I will be retiring on 1 December and I
want to make sure everything is in order when I hand over to
my successors.”
Best thing about your work
“Working with the people in our group is a really pleasant
experience. And the actual content, of course: the subject
of safety fascinates me immensely. How is it that people are
constantly getting into trouble? Why do they do that? We know
disasters are going to happen, but we choose to ignore it. We
have just seen another instance with the train collision near
Amsterdam. Everyone knows the braking system does not work.
And still someone has to die and more than a hundred have to
be wounded before we recognise it.”
Your relationship with the media
“I believe that as a university, an institution that accumulates
knowledge through the aid of public resources, you should also
share your knowledge whenever possible with that same public.
That is why I am open to everyone, to talk to them myself or
refer them to specialists within the group. I just had RTL Nieuws
on the telephone about the train collision near Amsterdam, and
Parool wanted information about the safety situation in the
Your best characteristic
“I believe I am quite capable of letting fellow professionals
get on with their own things. You want to steer a professional
organisation without getting in people's way. After all, you haven’t
taken them on just to do blindly what is asked of them. But you
still want to steer things in a certain direction. That can be tricky,
but it’s something I can handle pretty well.”
Your worst characteristic
“I am impatient.”
“The subject of
safety fascinates
me immensely.
How is it that people
are constantly getting
into trouble? Why do
they do that? We know
disasters are going to
happen, but we choose
to ignore it.”
High on the
political agenda
“Safety, of course. There are many
problems that still need solving.
Accidents with a small likelihood
but with huge consequences,
losses that we simply cannot
afford. Ever since the 1980s,
when I stood at the cradle
of the national external safety
policy, I have been working on
drawing attention to the subject.
Not without merit, but there is
still a great deal to achieve.
After my retirement,
I will remain active in
all kinds of committees
and governing bodies.”
Your
source of
inspiration?
“I refuse to accept that,
say, the neighbours are
killed through an unneces­
sary activity. Some acci­dents
do happen, bad luck does
exist. But you can also prevent
a lot of damage, and that is
what I dedicate myself to.”
And your favourite
quote?
“Never underestimate the power of
human stupidity, by the American
science-fiction writer, Robert Heinlein.”
TPM-Quarterly is a publication of the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management at TU Delft.
TBM Quarterly is available online
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management
via www.tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
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Colofon
Prof. B.J.M. (Ben) Ale
8
Alumni
in retrospect
YVO SAANEN (39)
Degree progr. Work
House
Family
Annual income
LinkedIn
Two science aficionados arrived at TU Delft in the Nineties to study what were
their respective favourite subjects at school. Both of them dropped their initial
choice and switched to SEPAM. The maths enthusiast now develops simulation
software; the physics fanatic, online distance-learning materials.
WILLEM VAN VALKENBURG (35)
Degree progr.
Work
House
Family
Annual income
LinkedIn
SEPAM 1992-1996 (transport)
Director of TBA (simulation and emulation software)
new build in Ypenburg, The Hague
married to Leiden alumna Nienke Saanen (39),
lecturer in law at TPM and preparing a PhD thesis
on procurement law; a son (9) and daughter (6).
¤ 150.000
nl.linkedin.com/in/yasaanen
>>
“My mother always said that if I could earn a living by chatting, it would turn out fine.”
Yvo Saanen, who started a logistics company after graduating, never mapped out his
career in advance. “I was always mad about maths, but when I started studying it at
university I was disappointed.” In 1992, the SEPAM programme was launched. Saanen signed up
immediately: “The combination of technical and management courses suited me perfectly.”
When Saanen and his fellow graduate Klaas Pieter van Til started their small company in 1996,
they accepted any job relating to logistics. “Lecturers at TPM helped us with guidance and finding
commissions.” In 1998, the entrepreneurs more or less stumbled upon what proved to be a niche
market: computer simulation models for container terminals. Now they have ninety-five employees
and offices in Delft, Düsseldorf, Romania and Florida.
TBA’s client base consists of ports in all corners of the world. Saanen visits them to sell newly
developed products and services and to draw up an inventory of their wishes. Generally speaking,
Saanen’s working days fall into one of two categories: client days and office days. “During office
days I am not working behind a desk all day, but am usually discussing the progress of projects and
products with the managers.” He keeps a general overview of the projects, sets out plans for the
future and coaches and supervises his staff. “The thing I enjoy most about my work is ensuring that
others are happy and successful in their work.”
In addition to his work, Saanen has a seat on the faculty advisory council. This group of professionals
from the public and private sectors meets three times a year. “For example, we discuss what capa­
ci­ties a graduate should have to start work with us, and the current issues . I believe the degree
pro­gram­me is important. It has significant added value in relation to mono-technical programmes,
and that should be preserved.”
SEPAM, 1998-2003
Project leader Open CourseWare, TU Delft
Single-family house, greater Delft area
single
¤ 60.000
nl.linkedin.com/in/wfvanvalkenburg
>>
Physics was Willem van Valkenburg's favourite subject at school, but the degree
in Applied Sciences which he started after VWO did not suit him. “That was not so
much to do with the content of the subject, which still interests me. What I found
less appealing was the old-fashioned way in which the lecturers taught it.” He tried it for two years
and then switched to SEPAM. “That was a big relief. TPM's modern approach to education suited me
much better.”
In retrospect, his negative experiences in the physics department turned out to be a source of
inspiration for his current passion, the possibilities that ICT offers for education. He graduated
in 2003 with a thesis on the implementation of e-learning systems under Wim Veen, professor
emeritus in Education and Technology. During his degree, as a student assistant, he participated in
the introduction of the Blackboard system, which was being developed at that time. He rolled into a
permanent position, and after a couple of years his current job became vacant: project leader Open
CourseWare. “Open CourseWare is about making course materials, such as readers, video lectures
and sample tests, available online. TU Delft wants to follow MIT’s example and make more and
more use of these possibilities.” Van Valkenburg finds the most enjoyable part of his work is being
able to talk about Open CourseWare at home and abroad in his role as ambassador. “TU Delft is a
pioneer in this area in the Netherlands, which makes it even more fascinating.”
Van Valkenburg's typical working day in Delft consists of lots of meetings, keeping up with social
media and blogs in his field and writing articles on his own weblog www.e-learn.nl. Also part of
his job responsibilities is assisting the Secretary General of the university, Anka Mulder, in her
work as president of the OpenCourseWare Consortium. Van Valkenburg: “That is a group of 280
international parties, including many leading universities. We try to draw as much attention to
the theme as possible. Anka has just been listed by an American journal as the nineteenth most
creative person in business. You get kick out of something like that.”
NI C K VENDERBO SC H SPENT SI X M O NTHS ST U DY IN G IN TOKY O
“After Fukushima the Japanese
see energy conservation as a duty”
second largest global economy. Visiting Japan was a child­hood
dream of mine, so I jumped at the chance when I got it!”
What was the greatest difference with
the Netherlands?
As a child, Management of Technology student
Nick Venderbosch dreamed of going to Japan.
That dream became a reality in 2011, when he
spent six months at Keio University in Tokyo.
It was an amazing journey, involving student
halls with their own sauna, small TVs due to the
nuclear disaster and a winning final presentation
for Adidas dressed as a cartoon character.
Why Japan?
“I was always curious to find out what it would be like in Japan.
The country is so different from other countries. Almost every­
thing high-tech comes from there and until recently it was the
“The cultural differences are enormous, the lifestyle is based
on different norms and values than in the West. In Japan, for
example, the collective takes precedence above the indi­vidual,
something you see repeated all around you. The Japanese way
of communicating is also very different. We are much more
direct, which can occasionally cause confusion and misunder­
standings.”
Where did you live over there?
“I stayed at the Sunrise Tode Dormitory in Kawasaki, about fifteen
minutes by train from my campus. It was very luxurious, with a
great sauna, large bath, a kitchen where food was prepared for
us and a dining-hall where we could also give parties.
Did you notice any consequences of
the nuclear disaster at Fukushima?
“There were fewer exchange students than normal. Originally
there were supposed to be six of us, but in the end I went
alone. I had already heard from friends that Tokyo was not
much affected by the disaster. The failure of the nuclear power
stations meant that energy was being saved everywhere:
half of the ticket machines at stations were disconnected,
air conditioning operated at half speed and they had bought
smaller TVs at my dormitory. The Japanese people want
to 'help out' their country and see energy conservation as
their duty.”
What was Keio University like?
“Keio University has six campuses spread throughout Tokyo.
I followed lectures at System Design and Management and
the Keio Business School, which fortunately are on the same
campus. Each school occupies its own floor with many study
areas. What struck me was that the majority of students chose
to study in communal areas. That made it easy for me to ask
fellow students for advice and it was also a nice, informal way
of getting to know more people.”
What was your favourite subject?
“The most interesting subject was ALPS: Active Learning Project
Sequence. The subject consists of tutorials in the weekends, in
which you carry out a team assignment for an existing company,
like Toshiba, IBM or, in our case, Adidas. Through workshops,
lecturers from MIT, Stanford, Keio and TU Delft give you the
tools you need to carry out the project. It is a competition in
which about fifteen teams usually take part. My team actually
won this year! Our final presentation was fantastic. We were
all dressed as characters from the manga series Doraemon.”