ODIN Eiendom i 2015

Transcription

ODIN Eiendom i 2015

ODIN Eiendom
Årskommentar 2015
Videokommentar – trykk på bildet
Fondets portefølje
ODIN Eiendom C - desember 2015
Avkastning siste måned og hittil i år
●
Fondet leverte siste måned en avkastning på 6,3 prosent. Referanseindeksens avkastning var 8,3 prosent.
●
Hittil i år er fondets avkastning 28,3 prosent. Referanseindeksens avkastning er 38,0 prosent hittil i år.
Kjøp og salg siste måned og hittil i år
●
Vi har ikke gjort noen vesentlige endringer i porteføljen i Desamber.
●
Hittil i år er de største endringene kjøp av i Balder, Sagax, Victoria Park og Hemfosa, samt salg av Norwegian Property,
Citycon, Sponda, Castellum og Olav Thon.
Bidragsytere siste måned og hittil i år
●
De beste bidragsyterne siste måned var Balder og Sagax.
●
De svakeste bidragsytere siste måned var Entra og Diös.
●
Hittil i år er de beste bidragsyterne Balder og Sagax.
●
De svakeste bidragsyterne hittil i år er Entra og Wallenstam.
ODIN Eiendom - desember 2015
Prising av fondet
●
●
●
●
Fondet prises til 15,2 ganger neste 12 måneders resultater.
Fondet gir en forventet direkteavkastning på 3,0 prosent.
Målt mot bokført egenkapital prises fondet til 1,4 ganger.
Selskapene i fondet har en gjennomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 8,4 prosent.
Prising av N/A - Carnegie Sweden Real Estate
●
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●
Markedet prises til 0,0 ganger neste 12 måneders resultater.
Markedet gir en direkteavkastning på 0,0 prosent.
Målt mot bokført egenkapital prises markedet til 0,0 ganger.
Selskapene i Carnegie Sweden Real Estate har en gjennomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 0,0 prosent.
Makroøkonomi
●
OECDs ledende indikatorer viser nå en endringstakt under trend for økonomiene i området de seneste månedene.
Finansmarkedene i 2015
Den globale veksten antas å bli 2,9 prosent i 2015, noe
svakere enn 3,3 prosent året før. Veksten i Kina, India og
Brasil var svakere i 2015 enn i 2014, mens eurosonen og
Japan hadde høyere vekst enn året før. I USA var veksten på
2,4 prosent i 2015 – nøyaktig det samme som i 2014.
Også i aksjemarkedet har det vært store variasjoner. De
brede britiske og amerikanske aksjeindeksene hadde en liten
nedgang i 2015, mens flere europeiske børser steg mellom 5
og 10 prosent. Børsene i Kina var preget av store
svingninger, med et spesielt bratt fall i sommer, men for året
som helhet hadde Shanghai-børsen en oppgang på over 9
prosent. Oslo Børs steg med 6 prosent, til tross for at
oljeprisen falt fra 67 til 37 USD pr. fat i løpet av året.
Lange tyske og amerikanske renter steg marginalt i 2015. I
mars startet den europeiske sentralbanken sitt program for
kjøp av obligasjoner, såkalte kvantitative lettelser, med mål
om å holde rentene nede og stimulere økonomien.
Inflasjonen i eurosonen er imidlertid fortsatt godt under målet
på 2 prosent. I USA, derimot, har økonomien lenge vært i
bedring, og i desember kom omsider Federal Reserves lenge
varslede renteøkning. Perioden med nullrentepolitikk i USA
er dermed over.
I Norge har sentralbanken kuttet styringsrenten to ganger, til
0,75 prosent, i 2015. Det er negative effekter av fallet i
oljeprisen og nedgang i oljeinvesteringene som er
bakgrunnen for rentekuttene, og det forventes at
styringsrenten skal videre ned i 2016.
Real GDP, annual percentage changes
2014
2015
2016
2017
World
3,3
2,9
3,3
3,6
United States
2,4
2,4
2,5
2,4
Euro Area
0,9
1,5
1,8
1,9
Japan
-0,1
0,6
1
0,5
China
7,3
6,8
6,5
6,2
India
7,3
7,2
7,3
7,4
Brazil
0,2
-3,1
-1,2
1,8
Source: OECD
Den norske kronen har svekket seg kraftig, og mens
oljeindustrien sliter, har kronesvekkelsen bidratt positivt for
eksportrettet norsk industri.
Geopolitisk uro har preget året som gikk, blant annet
gjennom konflikten mellom Russland og Ukraina, og ved
Islamsk Stats fremmarsj i Midtøsten. Finansielle ubalanser i
Kina har skapt frykt i finansmarkedene, men med unntak av
det kraftige aksjefallet i sommer, har det så langt vært mer en
oppbremsing enn et krakk. Oppbremsingen i Kina har
imidlertid hatt stor negativ effekt på verdens råvare-markeder.
I Europa ble Hellas og dets kreditorer endelig enige om en
gjeldsavtale i juli, og et viktig fokus for EU etter det har vært
den store flyktningestrømmen til Europa.
ODIN Eiendom i 2015
2015 ble nok et godt år for ODIN Eiendom. Avkastningen
for året målt i NOK ble 28.3%. Av disse skyldes rundt 8%
fordelaktige valutabevegelser da NOK svekket seg mot
SEK og EUR gjennom året.
Vi leter etter følgende når vi investerer:
De største bidragsyterene til avkastningen har vært
Balder, Sagax og Wihlborgs.
3.
Verdiskapningen i selskapene har primært vært drevet av
leieprisøkninger, ferdigstilte utviklingsprosjekter, fallende
ledighet, oppkjøp og lavere finanskostnader.
1.
2.
4.
Stabil og økende inntjening per aksje
En fornuftig belåning, både i forhold til inntjening,
kontantstrøm og eiendomsverdier
En fornuftig sammensetning av leietakere
•
De skal være solide
•
Vi foretrekker lang løpetid på kontraktene,
men noe utskifting er likevel viktig for
markedsjustering av leienivåene
En portefølje av eiendommer som ikke risikerer å bli
stående tomme etter kontrakts utløp
En ledelse som er opptatt av å skape verdier
gjennom å utvikle eiendommene
En lav pris på aksjen i forhold til inntjening,
kontantstrøm og risiko .
De lave rentene har også i 2015 bidratt til at fallende
avkastningskrav og økt verdi på eiendommene. Dog har
aksjekursene på børsnotert eiendom kun fulgt
inntjeningsveksten, og i så måte har ikke aksjemarkedet
tatt de lavere rentene innover seg.
5.
ODIN Eiendom hadde ved årsskiftet 74% av porteføljen
investert i svenske papirer, mens henholdsvis 9% og 9%
var investert i Norge og Finland.
Selv om mandatet til ODIN Eiendom også inkluderer
entreprenører og rene eiendomsutviklere, har vi besluttet
og ikke å investere i disse, men kun fokusere på
eiendomsbesitterene. Bakgrunnen for dette er hovedsakelig at vi oppfatter risikoen som lavere her, samtidig
som prisingen fortsatt er attraktiv, og dagens rentescenario er fordelaktig.
Gjennom året har de største endringene i fondet vært
kjøp av aksjer i Balder, Sagax, Victoria Park og Hemfosa,
mens vi har solgt aksjer i Norwegian Property, Citycon,
Sponda, Castellum og Olav Thon.
6.
ODIN Eiendom i 2015
ODIN Eiendom har som mål å gi en konkurransedyktig
avkastning relativt til risikoen i selskapene vi investerer i.
Generelle svingninger på børsen vil påvirke prisingen av
porteføljen, men slik vi oppfatter det, er ofte disse
svingningene vesentlig større enn hva verdien av
porteføljen svinger. I slike tilfeller forsøker vi å utnytte
svingninger til å rebalansere porteføljen.
Sterkt eiendomsmarked i 2015
Markedet for næringseiendom i Norden har vært sterkt
også i 2015. Transaksjonsverdien er nesten på nivå med
toppårene 2006 og 2007.
Veksten i volumet fra 2014 til 2015 er drevet av det
norske markedet. Det er spesielt Citycon sitt kjøp av
kjøpesenterene til Sektor Gruppen som forklarer veksten.
I følge Newsec har yieldene falt videre i de fleste store
byene i Norden i 2015.
Samtidig er utsiktene for leieprisoppgang positive både i
kontor- og og kjøpesentermarkedet i årene fremover.
Fortsatt lave renter
Lange renter er fortsatt lave i historisk målestokk. I
Sverige og i Eurosonen har det var stabilt lave renter
gjennom 2015, mens i Norge har nivået falt ytterligere.
Lave renter er positivt for eiendom både fordi selskapene
får lavere finansieringskostnader, og fordi da
verdsettelsen av slike aktiva blir høyere.
Med stadig lavere oljepris, har norsk økonomi fått større
utfordringer. GDP veksten er ventet å være lavere enn i
2014, mens inflasjonen trolig kommer opp på bakgrunn
av svekket valuta. Arbeidsledigheten er også ventet å
stige.
I Sverige er utsiktene langt lysere. GDP veksten er ventet
å bli over 3% i 2016, høyeste siden 2010. Privat konsum
er også ventet å utvikle seg positivt.
Finsk økonomi har allerede vært svak i flere år, og selv
om det er ventet noe forbedring, er det fortsatt til et lavt
nivå.
ODIN Eiendom i 2016
Utsiktene for eiendomsmarkedet i 2016 er også positive.
De vedvarende lave rentene vil bidra til fortsatt sterkt
transaksjonsvolum i tiden fremover.
I tillegg tror vi god vekst i svensk økonomi vil gi seg
utslag i økt etterspørsel etter eiendom i de fleste
segmenter. Utsiktene i Norge og Finland er mer
utfordrende.
Vekst i tilbudssiden i eiendomsmarkedet i Norden er
relativt begrenset. Newsec forventer 0-2% vekst i bygging
av kontorlokaler i hovedstedene.
I sum tror vi at tilbud og etterspørsel-balansen vil gi god
verdivekst i eiendomsmarkedet gjennom lavere ledighet
og økte leienivåer.
Vi forblir dermed positive til utviklingen av nordisk
børsnotert eiendom også i 2016.
ODIN Eiendom i 2016
Vi tror at de selskapene som klarer å vise høyest vekst,
kombinert med god avkastning på egenkapitalen,
kombinert med moderat finansiell risiko, over tid vil være
vinnere.
Balder, Sagax og Wihlborgs scorer best på disse
kriteriene, og er også de største posisjonene i fondet. Vi
har også en betydelig andel av fondet investert i
Hemfosa, som vi tror vi vise lignende egenskaper, dog
har selskapet begrenset historikk da børsnotering fant
sted for under to år siden.
Nøkkeltall og nyheter fra
porteføljen
- presentert på engelsk
Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (NOK)
ODIN Eiendom C
Index
Historical Return % (NOK)*
Last Month
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10 Y
Since
inception
Portfolio
6,27
28,25
28,25
29,27
17,20
13,43
17,22
Benchmark
8,30
37,98
37,98
34,35
18,78
12,81
14,60
-2,03
-9,73
-9,73
-5,07
-1,58
0,62
2,62
Exess Return
* Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized
Annual returns last 10 years
Pricing of the fund
Company
Weight
Country
Industry
P/E (LTM)*
P/E (NTM)*
Hemfosa Fastigheter AB
9,5%
Sweden
Fastighets Balder AB Class B
9,4%
Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB
P/B
ROE
Real Estate Management &
11,0
12,3
4,8
5,0
1,2
11,2
Sweden
23,0
20,7
0,0
0,0
1,8
8,0
9,1%
Sweden
13,7
14,7
3,0
3,1
1,6
11,8
AB Sagax Class B
9,0%
Sweden
19,8
16,3
1,4
1,7
2,5
12,5
Wallenstam AB Class B
4,6%
Sweden
35,8
36,0
1,8
2,1
1,5
4,3
Atrium Ljungberg AB Class B
4,6%
Sweden
19,6
18,6
2,7
2,9
1,4
6,9
Sponda Oyj
4,5%
Finland
10,9
11,2
4,8
5,1
0,8
6,9
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap
4,5%
Norway
14,8
13,6
1,3
1,4
0,9
6,2
Fabege AB
4,5%
Sweden
33,1
27,0
2,4
2,5
1,5
4,5
Technopolis Oyj
4,4%
Finland
8,5
8,4
4,2
4,2
0,7
8,7
Topp 10
63,9%
15,5
15,3
2,5
2,7
1,3
8,5
16,1
15,2
2,7
3,0
1,4
8,4
ODIN Eiendom
* NTM = Next 12 months
LTM = Last 12 months
Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares
DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM)
Current holdings
Share price performance*, year to date
(Sorted by weight in portfolio)
*) Share price performance for equities included in the benchmark. Equities not included in the benchmark are calculated from portfolio figures.
Contribution, year to date
Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years
Portfolio
Index
Active share
0,50
Sharpe ratio 1)
2,09
2,10
13,34
15,87
Standard Deviation 2)
Portfolio
Alpha
1,46
Beta
0,80
Tracking error
4,93
Information ratio
-1,09
1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate.
2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility.
Pricing - Global Equities (MSCI World)
OECD Leading indicator
Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Economic growth forecast
ODIN Eiendom - 31/12/2015
Security (Company)
Currency
Market
Number of Market price
shares
Cost price
Market value
Unrealised gain
(loss)
Atrium Ljungberg AB ser. B
SEK
Stockholm
298 706
Balder B
SEK
Stockholm
Castellum
SEK
Diös Fastigheter
% of assets
under
management
Local currency
NOK 1000
NOK 1000
NOK 1000
131,70
31 591
41 177
9 585
4,5
390 388
209,00
39 710
85 401
45 692
9,3
Stockholm
311 934
120,70
33 075
39 409
6 334
4,3
SEK
Stockholm
602 991
61,25
26 549
38 658
12 109
4,2
Entra
NOK
Oslo
535 503
71,25
39 403
38 155
-1 248
4,2
Fabege
SEK
Stockholm
277 324
140,10
20 702
40 668
19 966
4,4
Hemfosa Fastigheter
SEK
Stockholm
877 025
94,25
66 344
86 520
20 176
9,4
Hufvudstaden A
SEK
Stockholm
319 655
120,50
27 160
40 317
13 157
4,4
Klövern Pref
SEK
Stockholm
131 329
281,50
41 808
38 696
-3 113
4,2
Kungsleden
SEK
Stockholm
627 404
60,75
30 449
39 895
9 446
4,3
NOK
Oslo
287 733
142,00
34 893
40 858
5 965
4,5
Sagax B
SEK
Stockholm
1 090 826
69,75
54 452
79 638
25 186
8,7
Sponda
EUR
Helsinki
1 089 390
3,94
34 901
41 330
6 429
4,5
Technopolis
EUR
Helsinki
1 128 737
3,73
37 312
40 540
3 229
4,4
Victoria Park B
SEK
Stockholm
1 052 786
15,10
14 009
16 639
2 631
1,8
Wallenstam B
SEK
Stockholm
587 212
68,40
42 153
42 041
-112
4,6
Wihlborgs
SEK
Stockholm
461 662
171,00
54 819
82 631
27 812
9,0
Total Financials
629 329
832 572
203 243
90,7
Total portfolio
629 329
832 572
203 243
90,7
Investments
- ODIN Eiendom
Atrium Ljungberg
Performance - last 5 years
200
180
Company description:
160
Atrium Ljungberg is one of Sweden’s
largest listed property companies. The
focus is on owning, developing and
managing properties, principally in the
retail and office sectors. The ambition is to
develop areas into full-service
environments which are sustainable and
attractive in the longer term. The company
has around 1.1m square meters, of which
around half is retail exposure
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Why invested?
We like the company’s focus on being
invested in all property segments in
growth areas such as Uppsala. The
company creates value both through
having a larger overall property market
share in its key areas, but also through
extensive building activity. The company
has low financial gearing compared to the
sector average. In addition, the company
pays a competitive dividend.
Market Value (mill.)
Net debt (mill.)
Enterprise Value (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Return on Equity (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
des.14
des.15
OMX VINX Benchmark Capped TR
Real Estate Development
16,708
11,903
28,611
Price
129.30
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1,623
916
2,018
905
1,836
1,031
2,364
1,108
2,313
645
2,107
1,344
1,925
2,146
1,387
812
21.8
1.3
10.5
1.8
9.8
1.0
9.7
3.3
14.5
1.2
10.4
3.0
8.0
1.1
10.4
3.2
24.1
1.4
5.7
2.7
18.9
1.3
22.3
6.9
2.8
18.0
1.3
22.4
7.1
3.0
Balder
800
Fastighets AB Balder is a listed property
company which shall meet the needs of
different customer groups for premises
and housing based on local support.
Balder's real estate holdings are valued at
SEK 39.9 billion at the end of September
2015 and are marketed through the Din
Bostad and Balder brands. The company
has around 2.1m square meters, of which
around half is residental exposure
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
Why invested?
We like the company’s exceptional growth
and opportunistic strategy. The residental
market is very positive at the moment as
building activity is too low to offset
population growth. The company has high
financial gearing compared to the sector
average, including preferance shares.
Balder does not pay dividend, but as long
as the company continue to invest in
profitable growth, this is not a worry for
us.
Net debt (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
des.13
des.14
des.15
32,697
21,922
54,619
Price
195.30
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1,379
1,338
1,536
812
1,715
1,162
1,944
1,738
2,600
3,128
2,705
2,224
2,746
5,259
3,204
1,474
5.0
1.1
33.6
0.0
4.4
0.6
14.3
0.0
5.7
0.8
15.5
0.0
6.7
1.1
17.8
0.0
8.8
1.4
24.6
0.0
21.7
1.7
30.5
8.0
0.0
19.5
1.5
22.7
7.5
0.0
Castellum
250
Castellums operations are concentrated
to the attractive growth markets of
Stockholm, Göteborg, Mälardalen, Östra
Götaland and the Öresund region. The
company grow along with the
requirements of both new and existing
customers and we actively participate in
the development of cities and city
neighbourhoods. The company has
around 3.5m square meters, of which the
majority is office properties
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Castellum AB
des.14
Castellum AB
Why invested?
We like the company’s value creation
through building and acquiring properties
with high vacancy, and utilizing its large
customer base to enhance value. The
company has medium financial gearing
compared to the sector average. In
addition, the company pays a competitive
dividend.
Net debt (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
des.15
20,520
18,399
38,919
Price
119.30
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2,760
1,964
2,919
711
3,073
1,473
3,253
1,707
3,321
1,211
3,295
2,116
1,902
3,431
2,209
1,518
12.7
1.5
18.9
3.8
8.5
1.2
6.4
4.2
21.4
1.3
12.7
4.0
7.6
1.3
13.6
3.9
18.6
1.5
9.0
3.5
13.2
1.3
19.6
10.1
4.0
12.6
1.3
18.8
10.2
4.3
Diös Fastigheter
250
Diös has real estate holdings with a value
of SEK 12 billion, making it northern
Sweden's largest private real estate
company. We operate in a stable market
from Borlänge in the south to Luleå in the
north. Its portfolio contains a diverse
collection of properties in terms of price
range and type, which allows Diös to be
flexible to the clients' needs. The
company has around 1.5m square
meters, which is diversified through most
property segments.
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Dioes Fastigheter AB
des.14
Dioes Fastigheter AB
Why invested?
We like the company’s growth and strong
market position in the northern part of
Sweden. The company has high financial
gearing compared to the sector average,
although it has been reduced to a more
moderate level than earlier. In addition,
the company pays a very competitive
dividend.
Net debt (mill.)
des.15
4,558
7,592
12,150
Price
61.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
499
230
601
182
1,331
428
1,310
323
1,313
297
1,311
712
391
1,404
769
463
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
14.0
1.1
17.2
3.1
3.9
0.7
8.6
6.0
9.6
0.9
14.7
3.1
7.0
1.1
10.2
5.0
17.2
1.3
9.0
4.0
10.3
1.3
18.1
12.5
5.2
8.2
1.2
16.5
14.8
5.5
Entra
110
105
Entra is one of Norway's leading real
estate companies. The company is an
industry leader in developing and
managing energy efficient buildings. The
portfolio consists of flexible and
environmentally friendly, high-quality
office buildings in central locations close
to public transportation hubs. The
company has around 1.2m square
meters, of which the majority are office
related.
100
95
90
85
80
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Entra ASA
des.14
Entra ASA
Why invested?
We like the company’s long contracts with
public tenants. This provides a higher
visibility than most other real estate
companies. We also believe there is
earnings upside through cutting cost
further. The company has low financial
gearing compared to the sector average.
In addition, the company pays a
competitive dividend.
Net debt (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
des.15
13,229
14,449
27,677
Price
72.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1,510
735
1,468
565
1,533
704
1,684
453
2,018
1,027
1,758
1,437
2,098
1,844
1,489
759
11.1
-
8.0
-
9.3
-
5.8
-
13.5
1.7
11.0
0.0
17.1
1.1
18.3
6.2
4.2
13.8
1.0
18.0
7.5
4.6
Fabege
300
250
Fabege is a leading, listed property
company with a principal focus on the
development and management of
proprietary properties in the Stockholm
region. The property portfolio comprises
80 commercial properties and Fabege
offers modern premises, mainly for use as
offices but also for retail and other
purposes. The company has around 1.1m
square meters, of which the majority is
office related.
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Fabege AB
des.14
Fabege AB
Why invested?
We like the company’s strong focus on
the Stockholm region, and focus on
growth areas such as Solna. We also like
the company’s value creation through
expanding the portfolio through building
activities. The company has medium
average. In addition, the company pays a
moderate dividend.
Net debt (mill.)
des.15
92,969
19,494
112,463
Price
1056.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Sales (mill.)
2,014
-
1,818
-
2,089
-
2,112
-
1,998
1,361
2,196
1,517
Net Income (mill.)
1,697
1,141
1,893
88
1,530
1,738
2,192
703
9.8
1.2
16.0
1.8
6.6
0.8
9.9
5.6
1.0
-0.8
4.6
6.1
1.0
12.8
3.9
18.4
1.3
13.2
3.0
31.9
1.5
32.1
4.6
2.4
26.6
1.5
29.4
5.5
2.6
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
Hemfosa
250
Hemfosa Fastigheter is a Swedish
property company active in two principal
areas of operation. Firstly, long-term
management and development of
primarily community service properties
and, secondly, transaction of properties.
Our approach enables the company to
create a balanced property portfolio that
generates stable and high yields, thus
enabling it to develop and add value to
even more properties.The company has
around 2.5m square meters, of which the
majority is office related.
Why invested?
We like the company’s high growth, focus
on long contracts with public tenants and
transactin focus. The company has high
average, including preferance shares. In
addition, the company pays a very
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
des.14
Net debt (mill.)
des.15
10,778
15,166
25,944
Price
82.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
#N/A
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
-
1,297
667
1,594
923
1,584
231
1,683
964
2,440
1,698
1,851
2,539
1,671
1,034
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
-
-
53.8
-
10.2
-
28.0
1.6
17.4
0.0
9.8
1.1
16.7
11.2
5.4
10.9
1.1
17.2
9.7
5.7
Hufvudstaden
250
Hufvudstaden provides office and retailing
premises in prime locations in Stockholm
and Gothenburg. The Company was
founded in 1915 and is today one of
Sweden's largest listed property
companies and one of the strongest
brands in the country in the property
sector. The company has around 400k
square meters, of which all is office and
retail.
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
Hufvudstaden AB Class A
Why invested?
Hufvudstaden AB Class A
We like the company’s prime property
portfolio. Hufuvdstaden has properties in
very attractive locations in Stockholm and
Gothenburg, including the NK shopping
centers in both cities. This provides lower
risk, but one can also experience higher
volatility in general rent levels. The
company has very low financial gearing
compared to the sector average, In
addition, the company pays a moderate
dividend.
Net debt (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
des.13
des.14
des.15
25,764
5,176
30,939
Price
118.60
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1,392
1,733
1,437
1,435
1,542
1,939
1,640
1,876
1,669
2,001
1,595
1,118
2,063
1,624
1,160
816
19.9
1.5
15.9
1.9
7.5
1.2
12.0
3.3
13.9
1.3
14.7
3.0
8.0
1.2
12.9
3.0
11.7
1.3
12.5
2.7
27.8
1.3
27.7
4.9
2.6
27.5
1.3
26.5
4.8
2.7
Klövern
250
Klövern is a real estate company
committed, with closeness and
commitment, to offering customers
efficient premises in selected growth
regions. Our vision is to create
environments for future enterprise. This
requires active construction of city
neighbourhoods, districts and other
business clusters. The company has
around 2.8m square meters, of which
more than half is office related.
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
Klovern AB
des.13
des.14
Klovern AB
Why invested?
We like the company’s high growth, but
we are not comfortable with the high
financial leverage, which is among the
highest in the real estate sector. We have
therefore invested in the preferance
shares, which gives a very comptitive
dividend and significantly lower risk than
the ordinary shares.
Net debt (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
des.15
12,865
18,584
31,449
Price
8.90
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1,244
605
1,364
465
1,948
339
2,228
808
2,525
1,164
2,715
1,684
1,789
2,892
1,793
913
13.6
1.3
14.0
3.7
7.1
0.9
10.1
5.8
9.1
0.7
5.9
4.9
11.7
0.7
11.6
5.3
0.8
0.1
13.5
36.6
11.5
0.7
20.1
6.5
3.9
10.2
0.7
18.8
7.2
4.5
Kungsleden
200
180
160
Kungsleden is one of Sweden’s largest
listed property companies focusing on
long-term ownership, active management,
improving and developing commercial
properties in chosen growth regions. The
cluster strategy, means that owning
several properties within a defined area.
The company has around 2.6m square
meters, of which virtually all is office and
logistics.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Kungsleden AB
Why invested?
Kungsleden AB
We like the company’s new strategy,
which is much more focused on large
property market share in defined growing
areas. The company has moderate
average, even after loosing recent tax
case. In addition, the company pays a
Net debt (mill.)
des.14
des.15
11,284
9,875
21,159
Price
62.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2,321
-
2,882
-
2,110
-
2,242
-
2,247
1,386
2,550
1,590
Net Income (mill.)
841
638
352
862
2,200
659
1,417
916
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
38.4
1.2
11.7
4.3
7.4
0.8
8.5
4.3
0.7
4.6
7.3
3.7
0.7
10.7
2.3
11.5
1.1
-7.5
2.1
14.0
1.1
19.9
7.6
3.3
11.6
1.0
17.3
8.7
4.4
Sales (mill.)
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
250
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap was founded
in 1982 and listed in 1983. Focus has all
the way been on shopping centers in
Norway, but last year the company also
expanded into Sweden. The company has
around 1.5m square meters, of which
most is retail, but also some office.
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA
des.14
des.15
Why invested?
We like the excellent historic growth and
strong return on investments. Although
shopping centers face a challenging trend
as online shopping is continuing to gain
momentum. Through the financial crisis
retail sales shown a resilient trend, hence,
we are not too concerned with less
optimistic outlook for Norwegian economy.
The company has low financial gearing
compared to the sector average. Dividend
is quite low, but we are not concerned
with this as cash flows are reinvested with
healthy returns.
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA
Net debt (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
15,062
16,364
31,426
Price
141.50
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
NOK
NOK
1.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2,647
1,324
2,834
724
2,946
1,119
3,055
1,648
3,020
1,170
3,175
2,036
2,727
3,287
2,075
1,194
11.0
1.1
15.0
0.9
6.7
0.9
7.4
1.3
14.6
0.9
10.5
1.1
5.9
0.9
13.6
1.1
11.5
1.0
8.7
1.1
14.7
0.9
14.7
6.2
1.3
13.5
0.9
14.2
6.3
1.4
Sagax
400
Sagax is a property company whose
business concept is to invest in
commercial properties, primarily in the
warehouse and light industry segment.
The company has around 1.8m square
meters, of which more or less all is in the
warehouse/logistic segment.
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
AB Sagax Class B
des.14
des.15
Why invested?
We like the company’s high growth, which
has been among the best in the sector.
Sagax also have long lease contracts
providing good earnings visibility.
Management has a great track-record,
and has generated large values for many
years. The company has high financial
gearing compared to the sector average,
including preference shares, but as this
has been reduced lately, the company has
also started to pay a small dividend.
AB Sagax Class B
Net debt (mill.)
13,066
8,380
21,446
Price
70.25
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
669
492
789
122
826
372
929
777
1,098
747
1,284
1,041
1,058
1,414
1,164
831
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
27.4
-
5.5
-
14.8
-
1.1
23.8
1.8
16.4
1.7
18.1
1.3
19.9
2.5
22.1
12.5
1.4
16.4
2.2
19.6
13.3
1.7
Sponda
200
180
Sponda is a finnish property company
established in 1991 by the Bank of
Finland to take over the Finnish and
foreign real estate properties held by the
Skopbank Group together with its
sizeable equity portfolio. The company
has around 1.2m square meters, spread
across several segments, but with office
as the largest part.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Sponda Oyj
des.14
des.15
Why invested?
Sponda Oyj
Sponda has been going through a
transformation, which has lasted several
years already, where the goal is to be
more focused on prime offices in and
around Helsinki. As such, the Russian
and logistics assets has to some extent
been divested, although Sponda is not yet
completed with the process. The company
has moderate financial gearing compared
to the sector average, even after loosing
recent tax case. In addition, the company
pays a very competitive dividend.
.
Net debt (mill.)
1,076
1,805
2,881
Price
3.80
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
EUR
EUR
9.50
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
232
121
249
109
265
106
265
95
252
69
230
150
100
238
150
95
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
16.2
0.9
10.4
3.1
7.1
0.7
9.3
4.8
10.0
0.8
9.0
4.4
9.5
0.8
7.6
5.0
9.8
0.7
5.2
5.0
10.6
0.7
17.7
6.9
5.0
10.9
0.7
17.8
6.5
5.2
Technopolis
200
180
Technopolis provides the best addresses
for companies to operate and succeed in
five countries in the Nordic-Baltic region.
The company develops, owns and
operates a chain of 20 smart business
parks that combine services with flexible
and modern office space. The company
has around 730m square meters, which is
mostly business parks.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Technopolis Oyj
des.14
des.15
Why invested?
Technopolis Oyj
The company has shown strong growth
the last years. However, several equity
issues have diluted shareholders,
resulting is flat development in results on
a per share basis. The company has high
average, but has been able to pay a
competitive dividend. The share trades at
a very low valuation, but we believe
management needs to improve track
record to achieve a higher pricing of the
shares.
.
Net debt (mill.)
387
868
1,254
Price
3.63
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
Sales (mill.)
83
-
94
-
107
-
127
-
169
87
169
89
Net Income (mill.)
23
47
26
26
166
16
42
51
16.3
0.9
8.3
3.7
4.7
0.7
14.9
5.1
9.0
0.8
7.3
5.1
17.9
0.8
5.9
4.1
11.9
0.8
-3.5
2.7
8.1
0.7
14.1
8.9
4.4
8.1
0.7
13.9
8.5
4.4
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
EUR
EUR
9.50
Victoria Park
250
Victoria Park is a listed property company
on the NASDAQ Stockholm Mid Cap
focuses on residential properties, with the
business areas of investment properties
and lifestyle accommodation. With a longterm management of work and social
responsibility for safer living Victoria Park
create and process values in a growing
residential property portfolio in growth
areas in Sweden. The company has 708k
square meters, purely residental.
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
Victoria Park AB Class B
des.14
Victoria Park AB Class B
Why invested?
the last years. The residental market is
very positive at the moment as building
activity is too low to offset population
growth. Victoria Park generates values
also through refurbishing of apartments,
yielding excellent returns. The company
has high financial gearing compared to
the sector average, including preference
shares.
.
Net debt (mill.)
des.15
3,615
3,826
7,441
Price
14.90
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
26
23
247
-
130
-
299
-
621
273
755
339
Net Income (mill.)
133
22
60
410
310
1,068
375
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
-6.6
-
-18.9
-
42.3
-
76.3
-
0.9
25.4
0.0
25.9
1.3
26.7
4.9
1.0
19.2
1.1
22.4
5.9
1.4
Sales (mill.)
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
Wallenstam
300
250
Wallenstam is a company that does more
than just manage buildings. We work in
close collaboration with cities to create
safe, secure places and neighbourhoods
that people love to live in, work in and
visit. Wallenstam builds, develops and
manages properties, mainly in Stockholm
and Gothenburg. The company has
around 1m square meters across several
segments, of which residental is the
largest part.
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
des.14
Why invested?
the last years. The residental market is
very positive at the moment as building
activity is too low to offset population
growth. In addition Wallenstam has an
interesting position within generation and
trading of renewable energy. The
company has low financial gearing
compared to the sector average, and pays
a small dividend.
.
Net debt (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
des.15
20,881
14,997
35,878
Price
68.35
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1,496
1,572
1,600
736
1,768
1,927
1,755
1,277
2,918
585
1,123
1,061
2,287
1,232
1,030
682
7.8
1.1
17.2
1.8
11.7
1.1
7.3
1.8
11.0
1.3
17.4
1.5
8.0
1.3
10.3
1.3
39.3
1.7
4.5
1.0
36.3
1.6
36.2
4.3
1.8
36.5
1.5
38.1
4.1
2.0
Wihlborgs
250
Wihlborgs' property portfolio consists of
commerical properties in the Öresund
region, located in Malmö, Helsingborg,
Lund and Copenhagen. The property
portfolio is constantly enhanced by
acquisition, development and sale of
properties. Since 2005 the Company has
grown from 197 properties with a market
value of 7.9 billion to 270 properties with a
value of 26.7 billion as per 30 September
2015. The company has around 1.6m
square meters, of which the vast majority
is office and retail
Why invested?
We like the growth Wihlborgs has
generated through acquisitions and
development of properties in the
challenging Scania region. Management
has a strong track record which we expec
to continue. The company has financial
gearing a little bit above sector average,
but pays a competive dividend.
.
200
150
100
50
0
des.10
des.11
des.12
des.13
des.14
Net debt (mill.)
Sales (mill.)
Net Income (mill.)
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
EV/EBIT
Dividend Yield (%)
des.15
12,835
14,077
26,912
Price
167.00
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SEK
SEK
1.02
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
1,297
922
1,458
665
1,654
823
1,913
1,063
2,124
395
1,951
1,396
1,517
2,021
1,439
790
10.5
1.5
19.2
3.5
8.2
1.3
12.3
3.8
12.9
1.4
14.0
3.7
7.0
1.3
16.3
3.5
30.4
1.6
5.7
3.0
13.5
1.6
20.2
11.8
3.0
14.4
1.5
19.5
10.5
3.1
ODIN Eiendom - 31/12/2015
Security (Company)
Currency
Market
Number of Market price
shares
Cost price
Market value
Unrealised gain
(loss)
Atrium Ljungberg AB ser. B
SEK
Stockholm
298 706
Balder B
SEK
Stockholm
Castellum
SEK
Diös Fastigheter
% of assets
under
management
Local currency
NOK 1000
NOK 1000
NOK 1000
131,70
31 591
41 177
4 546
4,5
390 388
209,00
39 710
85 401
37 034
9,3
Stockholm
311 934
120,70
33 075
39 409
1 606
4,3
SEK
Stockholm
602 991
61,25
26 549
38 658
6 924
4,2
Entra
NOK
Oslo
535 503
71,25
39 403
38 155
-1 248
4,2
Fabege
SEK
Stockholm
277 324
140,10
20 702
40 668
14 429
4,4
Hemfosa Fastigheter
SEK
Stockholm
877 025
94,25
66 344
86 520
13 624
9,4
Hufvudstaden A
SEK
Stockholm
319 655
120,50
27 160
40 317
8 273
4,4
Klövern Pref
SEK
Stockholm
131 329
281,50
41 808
38 696
-6 621
4,2
Kungsleden
SEK
Stockholm
627 404
60,75
30 449
39 895
5 012
4,3
NOK
Oslo
287 733
142,00
34 893
40 858
5 965
4,5
Sagax B
SEK
Stockholm
1 090 826
69,75
54 452
79 638
15 014
8,7
Sponda
EUR
Helsinki
1 089 390
3,94
34 901
41 330
1 473
4,5
Technopolis
EUR
Helsinki
1 128 737
3,73
37 312
40 540
-1 699
4,4
Victoria Park B
SEK
Stockholm
1 052 786
15,10
14 009
16 639
1 797
1,8
Wallenstam B
SEK
Stockholm
587 212
68,40
42 153
42 041
-1 214
4,6
Wihlborgs
SEK
Stockholm
461 662
171,00
54 819
82 631
17 126
9,0
Total Financials
629 329
832 572
122 039
90,7
Total portfolio
629 329
832 572
122 039
90,7
Investment Objective
Long term value creation
Investment Philosophy
Performance - prospects - price
Om ODIN Eiendom C
På vegne av våre kunder, er ODIN en aktiv og
ansvarsfull forvalter med fokus på langsiktig
verdiskaping. ODIN Eiendom er et aksjefond som
investerer i næringseiendom i det nordiske markedet.
Alle investeringer skjer i børsnoterte selskaper som
eier ulike typer eiendom, som kontorer, hoteller,
kjøpesentre og lager. Typisk for eiendomsselskaper
er forutsigbar, stabil og god inntjening. Gjennom
aksjefondet ODIN Eiendom kan også du ta del i
verdiskapingen som skjer i det nordiske
eiendomsmarkedet.
ODIN Eiendom C er en andelsklasse av ODIN Eiendom.
Klassen har en minstetegning på 3 000 kroner til
1 million kroner.
Fakta om fondet
Etableringsdato
24/08/2000
Referanseindeks
Carnegie Sweden Real Estate
Basisvaluta
NOK
Forvaltningshonorar
2.00%
Tegn./innløsningsgebyr
0.00%
Minste tegningsbeløp
3,000 NOK
Om forvalter
Vi minner om...
Historisk avkastning er ingen garanti for framtidig avkastning, som blant annet vil avhenge av markedsutviklingen,
forvalters dyktighet, fondets risiko, samt kostnader ved forvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ som følge av kurstap.
Uttalelser i denne rapporten reflekterer ODINs markedssyn på det tidspunktet den ble utarbeidet. Vi har gjengitt kilder
som vurderes som pålitelige, men vi kan imidlertid ikke garantere at informasjonen fra kildene hverken er presis eller
komplett.
Ansatte i ODIN Forvaltning AS kan handle for egen regning i flere typer finansielle instrumenter. Dette innebærer at
ansatte i ODIN Forvaltning AS kan eie verdipapirer i selskaper som er omtalt i denne rapporten, samt andeler i ODINs
verdipapirfond. Ansattes egenhandel skal skje i henhold til ODIN Forvaltning AS interne retningslinjer for ansattes
egenhandel, som er utarbeidet i henhold til verdipapirhandelloven og Verdipapirfondenes forenings bransjestandard.
Du finner mer informasjon på www.odinfond.no

ODIN Eiendom i 2015

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