The Future of Media Measurements

The Future of
Media Measurements
Visionarium in Copenhagen 27.06.12 by Danish Media Association
Knut-Arne Futsæter TNS Gallup Norway ( @Futsaeter)
Media Measurements in Norway
 C&M and TGI from 1988
 Radio: CATI from 1995 and PPM from 2006
 TV-meter from 2000
 CEP for newspapers from 2010
 Internet: Web sites in C&M since 1995, Browser
measurement 2001 and NIP from 2010
 GEP for magazines 2012
 MultiMediaUnivers (MMU) from 2012
2
Agenda
1. Media Trends
2. TV
3. Radio
4. Newspapers and magazines
5. Internet and mobile
6. Multi media analyses
7. Final comments
3
1. Media Trends
Twitter: @Futsaeter
Media Trends 1960 – 2011: Daily reach
100
TV 83%
90
80
Newspaper 71%
70
Radio 68%
60
Percent
"Internet" 79%
50
40
30
Mobile
content 24%
20
10
0
61
65
69
71
73
77
80
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Kilde: Daglig oppslutning om avis, radio, fjernsyn, tekst-TV og Internett 1961-2011. http://www.tns-gallup.no/medier
Data fra Forbruker & Media fra 1994. Flerkanalsamfunnet (Lundby & Futsæter, 1993)
Fragmentering av medielandskapet og oppsplitting av publikum (Futsæter 1998).
5
Expansion of Social Network Sites.
Weekly reach among those with access to the Internet
75
71
LinkedIn: 4%
Twitter: 8%
MySpace: 2%
Origio: 1%
Facebook: 71%
68
65
63
58
48
50
39
Percent
33
32
28
25
4
0
0
2Q 2008
4Q 2008
6
3
0
2Q 2007
4Q 2007
2Q 2009
4Q 2009
8
7
6
2Q 2010
5
5
4
4Q 2010
2Q 2011
4
4Q 2011
Kilde: TNS Gallup InterBuss 15 år+ blant de med tilgang til Internett. 93% har tilgang til Internett (F&M 3Q 2011
6
Daily reach for the largest media
39
NRK 1 TV
66
49
TV2
60
89
Facebook
53
51
VG Nett
41
27
NRK P1 Radio
37
37
TV Norge
12-29 year
32
All
10
NRK 2 TV
Percent
31
0
25
50
75
Kilde: TNS Gallup InterBuss 4Q 2011 for hele befolkningen mellom 15 år og eldre for Facebook.
Forbruker & Media 12/1 (2011) for andre medier 12 år og eldre.
100
7
Media usage on weekdays
100
Percent
90
Andre
OtherMedier
media
80
Internet
Internett
70
Magasiner
på
Magazines
papir
Newspapers
Papiraviser
60
50
4,2
40
30
20
10
16,4
Radiolytting
Radio
3,6
0,9
TV-seing
TV
9,6
12,8
0
8
The Engagement Pyramid of Social Media
Curators
4%
Producers
7%
Watchers
72 %
Non-users
17 %
9
Media usage on weekdays
among curators of social media
120
Andre
OtherMedier
media
100
Percent
Internett
Internet
80
60
Magasiner
på papir
Magazines
Newspapers
Papiraviser
10,1
Radio
Radio-lytting
40
28,2
20
1,0
TV
TV-titting
2,9 6,3
12,3
0
10
Different consumer habits
 Media usage: Segmentation and fragmentation
 Interests,
activities,
attitudes,
Engagement in Social Media etc.
opinions,
WOM,
 Consumer habits
 Income and use of money for different gods and services
 High, medium and low consumers of different goods and services
 Brand loyalty, …..
 Need for target group information related to media use
across different markets (countries)
11
TGI SURVEY COVERAGE
67 countries
DEMOGRAPHICS
– Sex
– Age
– Marital status
– Education
– Working status
– Social classification
– Household mix
–
–
–
–
–
–
Income
Home ownership
Standard region
TGI lifestage
Geodemographics
Body mass index
SINGLE
SOURCE
Kantar Media All rights reserved 2012
MASTER THE MOMENTUM OF MEDIA
70
10
0
06:00-06:30
06:30-07:00
07:00-07:30
07:30-08:00
08:00-08:30
08:30-09:00
09:00-09:30
09:30-10:00
10:00-10:30
10:30-11:00
11:00-11:30
11:30-12:00
12:00-12:30
12:30-13:00
13:00-13:30
13:30-14:00
14:00-14:30
14:30-15:00
15:00-15:30
15:30-16:00
16:00-16:30
16:30-17:00
17:00-17:30
17:30-18:00
18:00-18:30
18:30-19:00
19:00-19:30
19:30-20:00
20:00-20:30
20:30-21:00
21:00-21:30
21:30-22:00
22:00-22:30
22:30-23:00
23:00-23:30
23:30-00:00
00:00-00:30
00:30-01:00
01:00-01:30
01:30-02:00
02:00-02:30
02:30-03:00
03:00-03:30
03:30-04:00
04:00-04:30
04:30-05:00
05:00-05:30
05:30-06:00
Multitasking: TV and Internet
Percent
60
5 7
10
11
8
3
7
6
3
5
5
9
9
9
9
8 7
7
4
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5
7
6
3 2 2
5 4
4 4 5
2 2
2 1 11 11 10 01 0 0 0 0 10 01 0
10 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
10 11
Uses Internet
not
Bruker
internett
ser
TV TV
ikke
50
12 12
13
13
40
11
30
13
20
13
16 16 15 15 15 14 15
13 14 15 15
15 15 14
29
13
26 27
13 13
15
19
32
12
12
Uses
not ikke
Ser
TVTV
bruker
Internet
internett
11
11
37 36
32
9
27
Uses ser
both
Både
TVInternet
og
AND TV
bruker
internett
8
17
13
Challenges
 Fragmentation of the media landscape and the media use
 Convergence, content one several platforms, media
houses
 Globalization and new competitors
 Multi-tasking
 Need for cross media measurement and some sort of
common currencies
14
2. TV
Twitter: @Futsaeter
The Norwegian TV-meter panel:
Enhanced Audio Matching
PeopleMeter™
Microphone
VIDEO
Satellite Receiver
with PVR
PVR
AUDIO
Traditional TV-meter
Representative panel
2.400 persons + guests
Minute by minute
TSV
16
Daily viewing time: Decreases by 5 minutes
Minutes
184
180
174
164 166
163
158 157
150
150
140
144
143
151 149
164
156 154
TV: 178
133
NRK1: 57
122
120
114
111
183
178
20-29 year: -12%
12-19 year - 8%
111
90
TV2: 34
Andre: 54
TV3: 9
TVNorge: 14
NRK2: 10
60
30
0
83
87
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Kilde: TNS Gallup TV-meterpanel.
17
Fragmentation and Long Tail
70
Minutes
2010
60
50
57
2011
Above 84% used in the four major Norwegian TV companies.
40
34
30
20
17
14
10
10
7
9
5
4
2
4
3
5
1
3
2
1
2
0
Kilde: TNS Gallup TV-meterpanel.
18
TV-viewing anytime - anywhere
PC
PC and tablets
17 %
PC and mobile
34%
PC, mobile and
tablets 11%
Mobile
Tablets
Mobile and tablets
12%
Kilde: TNS Gallup TV-tracker våren 2012 12 år +. Base: n=1051
19
Measuring of streaming in Norway
 Virtual Meter in the TV-meter Panel (2.200)
 PPM panel (1.000 persons)
 Norsk Internett Panel (NIP) (5.000)
 Browser Measurement Scores
20
TV: Convergence, Connected TV, Social-TV
 Increased viewing via new platforms such as tablets,
smartphones etc.
Social-TV
 Positive: Increase engagement, second screen, purchasing
 Negative: Less attention
21
3. Radio
Twitter: @Futsaeter
The Media Meter – PPM
Measures all coded sounds
Personal
Docking Station
Station
Encod
er
Portable
Meter
HH Data
Collection
(Modem) Unit
23
Daily listening time 2010 – 2011:
99
100
Radio
51
54
P1
21
21
P4
 People's listening habits will change
at least the next few years.
12
10
Radio Norge
6
6
5
6
P3
P2
 FM goes digital in 2017.
 PPM have increased the ad income
for the radio industry.
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
NRJ+
MetroStorby
P5
Storbyradioen
0
2011
2010
30
60
90
Minutes
120
Kilde: TNS Gallup PPM
24
4. Newspapers and
magazines
Twitter: @Futsaeter
Challenges for the print industry
 Declining circulation and readership
 Declining ad revenues
 They are media houses
 Must compare their currency with TV
26
The Media Effect Pyramid
Sales
Advertising
response
Advertising
persuasion
Advertising
communication
Advertising
attentiveness
Advertising
exposure
NEW NEWSPAPER NRS:
Page Traffic &
Content Exposure
Probabilities (CEP) +AIR
Vehicle
exposure
Vehicle
distribution
27
Source: Futsæter, Østnes and Sandvik : “The NEW NRS IN Norway
– from air to extended currencies for newspapers”, WRRS Valencia 2009.
Digital media
Magazines (AIR only)
The new measurement system for magazines
 12.000 interviews
 80% web, 20% postal
 Readership, Recency (AIR)
 A new currency (AIR*X):
Air*X:
AIR
 Testing of SIR
 NeedscopeTM for a qualitative
perspective
 Total readership across publishing
platforms

MAIN SERVICE
Readership (AIR)
 Readership Engagement Score (RES)
 Number of Reading Occasions (NRO)

Calibration with NIP and Scores data
 Calibration
of readership data
to TGI
28
C&M with TGI
Magazine measurement
12.000 CAWI/Postal
1.
Currency measurement
•
•
2.
Industry questions
Client specific questions
Testing etc.
TNS Mobile
Target Group Index (TGI): 15.000
(CAWI/postal)
1.
2.
3.
Publisher specific module
•
•
Media: newspapers, Internet, mobile, TV
radio, cinema, demographic and recruiting
Magazines
Common module for the
publishers
•
3.
Recency (AIR), SIR,
NRO, RES, NeedScope
45.000 CATI interviews
Reading of paper magazines and use of
content categories
Web: Content categories, measuring of the
largest sites (12 month and frequency)
Tablets editions and mobile content
Attitudes, opinions and interests
WOM
Consumer habits etc.
Brands
Decision maker index
Norwegian Internet Panel: 5000
Browser measure Scores
The Web questionnaire
Except today, when did you last read or look at the following
magazines?
These magazines are published monthly. These front pages are only examples.
30
A formula for Gross Exposure Points ( GEP )

AIR (Average Issue Readership)


RES (Readership Engagement Score)


The traditional net based readership
measure
Amount of reading last time the magazine
was read
NRO (Number of Reading Occasions)

On average, how many reading occasions of
a given title
31
From “price per ad” to “price
per exposure”
• Today's print price model is what we
could define as NET BASED
– Price per ad
• A future model could be GROSS BASED
like in most other media
– Price per exposure,
ex. GRP
Advertising:
What is sold and how is it measured?
Media
channel
Currency
survey
Newspapers
The newspaper
survey
Magazines
The Magazine
Survey
TV
Currency
Foundation
for pricing
Comments –
what is sold
AIR
Net no. readers
So far : AIRfigures
(newspapers have
got CEP "content
exposure
probabilities")
TV-meter
GRP
Gross
Gross exposures
Radio
PPM
GRP
Gross
Gross exposures
Internett
Different
measurement:
Traffic + Norwegian
Internet Panel
(NIP)
CPM
Gross
Different: No. of
exposures,
banners, traffic
figures......
Outdoor
Outdoor Impact
VAC
Gross
VAC= Visibility
Adjusted Contacts
33
5. Internet and mobile
Twitter: @Futsaeter
Access: Internet, smartphone and tablets
93
Internt access
Internet access at
home
91
61
Smartphone
25
Tablets
0
25
Percent
50
75
100
35
The measurement system for Internet
TNS Scores
NIP
Cookie-based browser
measurement
Background data
Streaming
Consumer &
Media
Background data
Cookie information
Other media
Encrypted Mobile-ID
TGI
Mobile measurement
Traffic for all measured
websites
(Scores)
Panel data for internet
audience
(Infosys/Atelièr)
Calibrated numbers for
websites in C&M for multimedia analysis
(GallupPC)
36
Daily reach for the largest web sites
VG Nett
NRK.no
Dagbladet.no
MSN.no
Finn.no
Startsiden.no
Aftenposten.no
Tv2.no
Nettavisen.no
SOL.no
Blogg.no
GuleSider.no
ABCNyheter.no
Kjendis.no
Klikk.no
Kvasir.no
Bt.no
Dinside.no
E24.no
Seher.no
1052
831
764
632
530
529
428
354
344
332
271
269
262
221
165
156
155
154
Thousands
145
128
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Gj.snitt daglig dekning (000)
Kilde: Norsk InternettPanel (NIP) 12 år+
37
NIP: Daily reach by gender
KK.no
Seher.no
Blogg.no
VG MinMote
MSN.no
Rb.no
Klikk.no
Kvasir.no
SOL.no
GuleSider.no
ABCNyheter.no
Kjendis.no
Nettavisen.no
Startsiden.no
Finn.no
NRK.no
Tv2.no
Fvn.no
Dagbladet.no
Ba.no
Adressa.no
Bt.no
Aftenposten.no
VG Nett
VG DinePenger
Aftenbladet.no
Dinside.no
Dn.no
E24.no
Itavisen.no
«Magazines», Blogs, MSN
Kvinner 12 år+
Menn 12 år+
Technology and economics
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Grafen viser over- og underrepresentasjon av henholdsvis kvinner og menn for de 30 største nettstedene i NIP.
En indeks på over 100 betyr at målgruppen er overrepresentert, en indeks på under 100 betyr at målgruppen er underrepresentert på nettstedet.
Kilde: Norsk InternettPanel (NIP) 12 år+
38
Daily reach among teens and people above
60+ years
VG Nett
NRK.no
Dagbladet.no
MSN.no
Finn.no
Startsiden.no
Aftenposten.no
Tv2.no
Nettavisen.no
SOL.no
Blogg.no
GuleSider.no
ABCNyheter.no
Kjendis.no
Klikk.no
Kvasir.no
Bt.no
Dinside.no
E24.no
Seher.no
25,3
23
15,4
15,4
23
16,4
23,8
11,1
10,1
9,6
2,2
27,8
6,3
11,5
10,6
7,9
10,1
5,9
6,8
8,6
21,6
1,5
3,7
7,2
1,1
15,6
2,9
4,3
3,9
3,6
1,8
Teens: MSN and blogs – UCC
60 year +: Startsiden, NRK
6,1
2,9
3
2,4
2,7
1,9
0
3,6
3,6
2,7
5
10
Ung (12-19 år)
15
20
25
Percent
30
Eldre (60 år+)
Gjennomsnittlig daglig dekning (%) fordelt på unge/eldre for de 20 største norske nettsteder som måles i NIP
Kilde: Norsk InternettPanel (NIP) 12 år+
39
Weekly and daily use of mobile content
50
Percent
40
40
Weekly reach
Daily reach
32
30
27
20
17
10
11
11
4
4
9
4
11
12
5
6
19
11
0
Week 6-26
2005
1Q 2006
1Q 2007
1Q 2008
1Q 2009
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
Kilde: Forbruker & Media.
40
Use of Norwegian mobile content sites
1500
Numbers in thousands
1320
1250
1000
Andre Mobil
Gule Sider Mobil
TV 2 Mobil
750
775
Finn Mobil
Aftenposten Mobil
500
Dagbladet Mobil
504
* NRK Mobil/YR Mobil
VG Mobil
250
217
72
53
Uke 6-26
4Q 2006
0
94
4Q 2007
109
4Q 2008
4Q 2009
4Q 2010
4Q 2011
1Q 2012
Kilde: Forbruker & Media 12 år +.
41
TNS Mobil: Number of page views
increases from 33 to 224 mill: 7 times
250
Page views in millions
200
150
238
100
224
224
196 202 193
167
177
143 142
50
102
33
40
39
45
56
60
64
72
70
83
121 115
85
ja
n.
10
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
r
M
ai
Ju
ni
Ju
li
Au
g
Se
p
O
kt
N
ov
D
es
Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
Ap
r
M
ai
Ju
ni
Ju
li
Au
g
Se
p
O
kt
N
ov
D
es
0
Kilde: TNS Mobil Månedlige sidevisninger i millioner 2011.
42
Number of page views per user
Is a mobile user as much worth as a newspaper reader?
45
Newspaper (print)
8
Web site
3
Mobile edition
Number of pages
0
10
20
30
40
50
Kilde: Estimert antall observerte sider. Sidevisninger fra de elektroniske målingene for mobil og nett.
Gjennomsnittlig CEP verdier for noen papiraviser som har 57 sider i snitt beregnet med grunnlag i antall sider produsert og
CEP verdier fra F&M. TNS Mobile for mobil, TNS Scores for nettavisene. Forbruker & Media for papiraviser.
43
6. Multi-Media analyses
Twitter: @Futsaeter
The media diary
Instructions
45
“MultiMedia Universe” (MMU)
Radio
(Currency)
TV*
Consumer & Media (CATI)
*For some TV
stations we will use
diary data directly.
(Currency)
Newspapers, Local Radio/TV (Currencies)
+ Cinema & Direct Mail
Radio
TV
TGI
= Fusion
Mediadiary
The Media Diary
= Calibration/
Fusion
(”24”)
”24”
Other
media
= Modeling
Internet
Demographics
Outdoor
Internet
(Currency)
(Currency)
Magazines
Currency)
46
7. Final remarks
Twitter: @Futsaeter
Final remarks
 Not any single method that can measure all media
 The print media measurements need comparable currencies with the
electronic media. There is a need for comparison of currencies from
different media
 High quality target group information (TGI) across borders
 The amount of data is not the problem – but the insight and quality is!
48