this speaker`s presentation

Burgeoning & blossoming
The evolving and growing EU berry sector
Cindy van Rijswick
A common thought:
“healthy food is never tasty and tasty food is never healthy”
Berries actually show that this is not true!
Source: Rabobank, 2015
2
Berry market will grow at least 7% a year, strawberries 1-­‐2%
EU consumption of fresh berries is outpacing total fruit consumption 230
Index, 2004=100
210
190
170
150
130
Fruit
Blueberries
Strawberries
Source: Rabobank calculations based on Euromonitor, FAOSTAT, Eurostat, 2016.
Forecast based on polynomial trend forecasting.
2020f
2019f
2018f
2017f
2016f
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
90
2004
110
Raspberries
3
Various drivers will further boost the sector
Threats
Opportunities
Better varieties, planting materials
Investment capital Sustainability, resources: water, chemical use
Competition
Extension of seasons
Vertical cooperation
Category management
International trade
Quality
Pests
International trade
Quality
4
Northern EU countries lead the pack in consumption
Huge differences within the EU in fresh berry consumption growth rates
12
Blueberries
CAGR %, 2010-­‐15
10
Strawberries
Fruit
8
6
4
2
Source: Euromonitor, 2016.
Czech Rep.
Poland
Sweden
Denmark
Belgium
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
France
Germany
UK
-­‐2
EU
0
5
EU berry consumption patch will change
Strawberries still dominant in EU fresh berry patch (volume-­‐based, 2015)
Future berry patch
Strawberries
Raspberries
Blueberries
Other
Per capita consumption
Source: Rabobank estimate, 2016.
6
The US fresh berry market has also risen and broadened US consumption of fresh berries
million pounds
3,500
1%
4%
2%
3,000
5%
7%
2,500
15%
2,000
1,500
90% 1,000
76%
500
0
2005
2006
2007
Strawberries
Source: USDA (NASS, ERS & FAS), Rabobank, 2015
2008
2009
2010
Highbush blueberries
2011
2012
Raspberries
2013
2014
Blackberries
7
Organic berry market is a rapidly growing niche
Organic berries:
34 percent growth!
8
Production of organic berries in Eastern Europe, Germany, Spain
2008
Source: AMI, 2015.
Italy
Czech rep. Hungary
Bulgaria
Estonia
Germany
Spain
Lithuania
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Poland
ha
Area of organic‘bush’ berries in the EU
2013
9
International trade and local production are inextricable
Some of the new kids on the block
10
Chile will remain a strong global blueberry player
Thousand tonnes
Southern Hemisphere fresh blueberry exports
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Chile (LH-­‐axis)
Argentina (LH-­‐axis)
S.Africa (RH-­‐axis)
Peru (RH-­‐axis)
Sources: Rabobank 2016, based on UN-­‐Comtrade, FAOSTAT, Chilean Blueberry Committee. 11
Regional EU sourcing is growing faster than global sourcing
Global blueberry trade versus EU internal trade and EU external imports
Thousand tonnes
30
EU external trade (LH-­‐axis)
EU internal (LH-­‐axis)
Global trade (RH-­‐axis)
250
200
25
20
150
15
100
Thousand tonnes
35
10
50
5
0
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Rabobank 2016, based on UN-­‐Comtrade, FAOSTAT and EUROSTAT. 12
Local or imported berries?
Source: Rabobank, 2015
13
Quality has increasingly become a differentiator in strawberries
Fresh strawberry exports compared
Netherlands (LH-­‐axis)
Morocco (LH-­‐axis)
Spain (RH-­‐axis)
80
400
USD 5.74/kg
70
300
50
USD 2.18/kg
250
40
200
30
150
20
100
10
Average export value in 2014: USD 1.99/kg
0
Thousand tonnes
Thousand tonnes
60
350
50
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sources: Rabobank 2016, based on UN-­‐Comtrade
14
New (increasingly private) varieties and more capital-­‐intense production systems are changing berry production
15
EU raspberry and blackberry sector are still in transformation
Raspberry production in the UK and the Netherlands
160
25
140
ha
100
15
80
10
60
40
Thousand tonnes
20
120
5
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
20
Netherlands (LH-­‐axis)
Sources: DEFRA, 2015 and CBS, 2016.
0
UK (RH-­‐axis)
16
Spain, Portugal and Morocco are quickly expanding production
Fresh raspberry and blackberry exports
Sources: UN-Comtrade, 2016.
17
And the winners are… Sizeable and sustainable quality-­‐
focused breeders, propagators and growers
Small growers that focus on organic or niche berries
1
Sizeable (international) year-­‐round fresh berry packers/marketers: < 15 suppliers to EU food retail chains
Players that cooperate vertically
18
Conclusions
EU consumption growth of strawberries 1-­‐2% a year, other berries > 7%, but likely to be further propelled
Production of local (efficiently-­‐produced & high quality or niche) as well as imported berries viable in EU: production will remain very diverse
Competition will increase, but (in most weeks of the year) market will be able to absorb production increase, as long as quality is all right Ongoing investments to increase efficiency and sustainability : new varieties, substrates, alternative crop protection, mechanisation
There is a shift in the industry playing field towards more vertical integration and larger players
19
How is Rabobank involved in the berry sector?
Rabobank does not have pots of gold… but is one of the world’s leading F&A banks
•
•
•
•
•
Global F&A lending: > EUR92 bn
International network in 42 countries
All-­‐finance partner for berry growers and packers in the Netherlands, California, Australia
Global financing of large packers, marketers, distributors Large F&A network, F&A knowledge base
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Banking with food & agribusiness
knowledge
Rabobank’s Global Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory team Animal Protein
Beverages Consumer Foods
Dairy
F&A Supply
Chains
Farm Inputs
Grains and
Oilseeds
Sugar
Fresh Produce
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Thank you for your attention
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