China Hotel Market Overview 2014

Transcription

Produced in conjunction with the China Tourist Hotel Association | 2014
Hotels & Hospitality Group
China Hotel Market Overview
2014
China Hotel Market Overview 2014 3
1. China Hotel Market – Survey Results
1.1
Survey Background
Recent statistics of global travel trends project that the number of
outbound Mainland Chinese tourists will double from an estimated
100 million in 2013 to 200 million by 2020. This new emerging class
of vacationers continues to frequent nearby Hong Kong and Macau,
but “Mainlanders” are also increasingly growing adventurous, seeking
new holiday destinations further afield in Europe and North America.
However, this strong tourism growth is not limited to just outbound.
The domestic market is also gaining momentum amongst local
Chinese travellers. For instance, 'Golden Week' – the seven-day
national holiday – results in in millions of Mainland Chinese travelling
nationwide every year.
The China Tourism Hotel Association (CTHA) 2014 survey again
focuses on the performance of domestic market hotels in Mainland
China.
As per previous years, the 2014 survey was again distributed to all
CTHA members with responses received from 269 hotels, representing
a total of 55,528 guest rooms. Of all the hotels polled, JLL have
geographically divided the properties into regions of which 29.1% were
located in East China, 23.4% in Central China, 22.2% in West China,
13.0% in North China and the remainder concentrated in South China
(12.3%). In terms of hotel quality by grade, 49.6% were five-star
hotels, 33.1% four-star hotels, 11.4% three-star hotels and the
remaining 5.8% were hotels of two-star rating or lower in the 2014
survey.
In regards to the ownership structure of the hotels, 49.2% of properties
surveyed were state-owned, 39.4% privately owned and 11.4% were
held under other ownership structures, such as joint ventures and
foreign-owned enterprises. The operational model of hotels reported
that 66.3% were owner-operated and managed, 23.0% running under
a third party management agreement, 6.5% franchised and 4.4%
leased or operated under a different management model. Across all
surveyed hotels, there were 51,256 staff employed full-time (82.8%),
6,247 staff working in part-time roles (10.1%) and 4,405 were interns
(7.1%).
Of all hotels sampled, just over 46% commenced operation after 2006.
Results differed widely from the 2013 survey which showed 34.8%
for the same timeframe. Similarly, hotels that opened prior to 1996
represented 12.3% in the latest 2014 survey while last year it was
almost double at 22.6%. The latest results show that the 2014 survey
polled a much higher proportion of new hotels compared to previous
surveys.
Figure 1: Hotel Opening Year
50%
46.1%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
12.3%
15.2%
14.1%
10%
5%
0%
4.1%
5.2%
Before 1985
1986–1990
Source: CTHA 2014 survey results (total 269 hotels)
3.0%
1991–1995
1996–2000
2001–2005
2006–Present
Undisclosed
4 JLL | Hotels & Hospitality Group
1.2
Hotel Performance
In consideration of the data from chart 1-2, actual hotel performance
has been assessed for the calendar years 2012 and 2013. In 2014,
the results are based on forecasts provided by respondents. After
reviewing the results, we note that the general performance for
hotels across Mainland China has decreased substantially in terms
of Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue per Available Room
(RevPAR).
In 2013, the ADR of sampled hotels wasRMB 400, 2.4%,below that
of 2012. A substantial pipeline of new hotel supply continues to weigh
down on hotel performance and the growth rate of inbound tourism
has declined on a slower economic environment. Overall occupancy of
surveyed hotels decreased from 63.0% in 2012 to 60.0% in 2013. Due
to a fall in occupancy and ADR, RevPAR decreased 7.0% to RMB 240
in 2013.
The survey reported room nights available totalling 81,733 nights in
2012, rising to 83,039 in 2013. Forecasts for 2014 suggest an increase
of 1,762 rooms in 2013. In terms of room nights sold, the 2014
forecast totalled 51,844 rooms, a 2.2% increase on last year. Overall,
little variation has been recorded over the assessed 3-year period in
terms of room nights sold.
Based on overall hotel performance at a regional level, West and North
China recorded declines in occupancy. West China is expected to
achieve the strongest growth in ADR (up RMB 56) whilst Central and
Northern China may witness falls of RMB 30 and RMB 13 respectively.
As one of the key criteria to measure the average market performance
of hotels, RevPAR is affected by occupancy and ADR levels.
According to the respondents, hotel trading performance in 2014 is
likely to moderate or remain flat. Occupancy is expected to remain at
around similar levels to the last survey. However, ADR is forecast to
increase 2.4% to RMB 409 while RevPAR remains flat at RMB 241.
Figure 2: Hotel Performance: ADR, RevPAR & Occupancy
(2012-2014*)
Figure 3: Hotel Performance: Room Nights Available & Sold
(2012-2014*)
450
70%
Rooms Nights
90,000
400
65%
80,000
350
60%
70,000
300
55%
60,000
250
50%
50,000
200
45%
40,000
150
40%
30,000
100
35%
20,000
50
30%
10,000
25%
0
RMB (Yuan)
0
2012
2013
ADR
RevPar
*Estimates provided in 2014 survey
2014*
Occupancy
2014*
2012
2013
Room Nights Available
Room Nights Sold
2014*
57.9%
¥301
¥175
2014*
57.2%
¥285
¥163
Central China
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
South China
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
¥158
¥280
56.4%
2013
¥190
¥331
57.3%
2013
¥215
¥412
52.2%
2013
¥341
¥529
64.5%
2013
¥139
¥269
51.9%
2013
¥164
¥277
59.1%
2012
¥212
¥336
63.2%
2012
¥218
¥406
53.7%
2012
¥340
¥520
65.6%
2012
¥156
¥283
55.2%
2012
West China
South China
Central China
East China
North China
North China
Note: ADR does not include breakfast and service charge
Unbalanced regional data is caused by varying sample sizes and star rating distribution. The report provides average values for each region. All figures rounded.
¥218
¥309
RevPAR
RevPAR
¥516
ADR
¥404
59.9%
Occupancy
ADR
2014*
North China
2014*
¥167
RevPAR
54.0%
¥325
ADR
Occupancy
51.6%
Occupancy
East China
2014*
West China
Figure 4: Surveyed Hotel Performance by Region (2012-2014*)
1.3
Business Mix
1.4
Among the surveyed hotels, Corporate FIT travellers were still the
leading segment in the business mix, making up 39.2% in 2012 and
slightly higher in 2013 (39.8%).
In terms of 2013 leisure tourists, there was a minor change recorded in
the proportion of leisure FIT travellers as compared to 2012, rising to
21.3% from 20.1%. Steady demand from the leisure traveller segment
has led to less price sensitivity. The results identified that guests tend
to choose higher quality hotels with personalised service.
In addition, private and quiet living environments and the presence
of local cultural activities are also preferred. In comparison, long-stay
guests and other segments largely remained the same. The long-stay
segment accounted for 5.3%. Other segments accounted for 6.9%.
Figure 5: Business Mix (2012-2013)
Long-stay
Guests
Revenue Mix
There were no major differences between 2012 and 2013 data while
2013 performance recorded only a slight increase in room revenue
and restaurant & bar revenue. A fall in meeting & banquet revenue
was however noted. The 2014 forecast highlights some key changes
with room revenue rising to 50.9%, meeting & banquet revenue up to
25.1% and unsurprisingly, restaurant and bar revenue down to 15.0%.
This change in revenue mix is a result of recently changing demand
patterns by hotel patrons. Other revenue (potentially including revenue
sources such as mini bar, entertainment, spa etc.) shows a persistent
declining trend over time.
When analysing the revenue mix by star rating, we note the higher the
rating of a hotel, the smaller the divergence between room and F&B
revenue. As shown in the chart, there is likely to be limited change in
the estimated revenue mix between 2012 and 2014. Room revenue
of five-star hotels is estimated to increase by 0.9% to 46.3% in 2014
but revenue remains stable in four-star hotels. Both two and three-star
hotels are expected a fall around 5%.
F&B revenue in the meeting & banquet category is stable in five-star
properties but shows some variations in four-star, falling 1 percentage
point to 28.1% in 2014. Both two and three-star hotels are expected
to witness an increase in restaurant & bar revenue but five-star hotels
may record a slight decline.
Others
Leisure
Groups
Corporate
Groups
Leisure FIT
Corporate FIT
0%
5%
2012
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
2013
Figure 6: Revenue Mix (2012-2014*)
Figure 7: Revenue Mix by Star Rating (2012-2014*)
2014*
50.9%
2013
48.8%
22.2%
18.3%
2012
48.0%
23.3%
17.6% 11.1%
25.1%
15.0% 9.0%
10.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Rooms Revenue
F&B Revenue (Meeting and Banquent)
F&B Revenue (Restaurant and Bar)
Other Revenue
*Note: The 2014 data is estimated data. Revenue from hotels opening in or after 2012
was not included in revenue mix calculation
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2012 2013 2014* 2012 2013 2014* 2012 2013 2014* 2012 2013 2014*
5-star
4-star
3-star
2-star & others
Rooms Revenue
F&B Revenue (Meeting and Banquent)
F&B Revenue (Restaurant and Bar)
*Note: The 2014 data is estimated data
Other Revenue
1.5
Market Outlook for 2013
Table 1: Occupancy Forecast (2013-2014)
Operating Outlook
In this year’s survey, we asked the hotels to share their outlook on
occupancy, ADR, operational cost, the cost composition and overall
competitive pressure. The results are shown in the following tables:
With the decline in occupancy and RevPAR in 2013, the outlook for
2014 remained pessimistic based on hotels’ trading expectations and
the large supply pipeline set to enter the market, with 59.1%
suggesting that occupancy will rise. However, 18.6% of surveyed
hotels anticipate an occupancy decline. We note that this is
substantially lower than the 38.3% of respondents recorded in the
2013 report. Among the results, 14.5% predicted that the occupancy
rate would remain unchanged.
55.0% of respondents predicted that the ADR would rise in 2014, a
17.2 percentage point change from last year’s survey. Among the
results, 21.9% suggested that it would actually decline, similar to the
rate recorded in 2013. Hotel performance forecasts in 2014 were
relatively upbeat compared to the results obtained last year.
Operational costs are estimated to rise or remain stable in 2014 at
77.6% of surveyed hotels. This is 4.1 percentage points above the
2013 results. The significant trend in this sample data is the
overwhelming perception of increased operating costs in 2014, which
rise by 26.0pp from last year.
According to the surveyed responses with regards to the cost
composition mix, most hotels forecasted that expenses across the
categories of food, beverages, labour, energy, sales & marketing and
'others' would remain at a similar proportion to 2013.
More than 88.8% of respondents indicated that the hotel’s competitive
market pressure would be higher this year. The main reason was
increasing operational costs. Only approximately 4.5% of respondents
anticipated the competitive pressure in the marketplace to decrease.
Other respondents indicated that it depends on implementation of
government policies.
2013
2014
Change
Increased
38.8%
59.1%
+20.3pp
Unchanged
20.9%
14.5%
-6.4pp
Decreased
38.3%
18.6%
-19.7pp
Undisclosed
2.0%
7.8%
+5.8pp
Note: 2013 forecast from CTHA 2013 survey results (total 224 hotels)
Table 2: ADR Forecast (2013-2014)
2013
2014
Change
Increased
37.8%
55.0%
+17.2pp
Unchanged
35.7%
15.2%
-20.5pp
Decreased
24.5%
21.9%
-2.6pp
Undisclosed
2.0%
7.8%
+5.8pp
Table 3: Operating Cost (2013-2014)
2013
2014
Change
Increased
37.8%
63.8%
+26.0pp*
Unchanged
35.7%
13.8%
-21.9pp
Decreased
24.5%
22.4%
-2.1pp
Undisclosed
2.0%
NIL
-2.0pp
* Percentage point
Table 4: Cost Composition (2012-2014*)
Food
2012
2013
2014
27.9%
27.4%
26.2%
Beverages
6.6%
5.9%
5.6%
Labour
31.6%
34.4%
34.0%
Energy
14.1%
14.3%
13.3%
Sales & Marketing
7.5%
6.9%
6.9%
Other
12.3%
11.0%
14.0%
Table 5: Competitive Pressure (2013-2014)
2013
2014
Change
Increased
89.0%
88.8%
-0.2pp
Unchanged
5.5%
6.7%
+1.2pp
Decreased
1.6%
4.5%
+2.9pp
Undisclosed
3.9%
NIL
-2.9pp
Table 6: Guest Demand Drivers (2013-2014)
Guest Demand Drivers
An analysis of the surveyed results on guest demand drivers shows
that “large-scale meeting / activities / exhibitions” account for the
majority of lodging demand (30.1%) in 2014, maintaining the same
level as reported in last year’s survey. Demand driven by “major
tourism project developments / improvements” increased by 1.2
percentage points to 25.4%.
2013
2014
Large scale meeting / activities / exhibitions
30.2%
30.1%
Major tourism project developments / improvements
24.2%
25.4%
Expansion of development / high-tech zones
15.2%
15.2%
Development and expansion of transportation hub
15.0%
13.1%
Increased office supply
9.7%
10.8%
Increased government demand
5.8%
5.4%
The number of respondents choosing “expansion of developments /
high-tech zones” and “increasing office supply” as the demand
drivers shows a rise of 1.1 percentage point higher than that of 2013.
Government generated demand recorded a decline of only 0.4%.
Source: CTHA 2014 survey results (Total 269 hotels)
Government Initiatives Demand
Operational Challenges
Of the surveyed results for the requirement of key government
initiatives, 59.0% of respondents suggested that more promotion for
tourism is needed. This was by far the leading category, significantly
outweighing the second largest initiative of supportive policies (18.7%).
Opinions on future operational challenges were also surveyed. In
recent years, the large influx of new hotels into Mainland China has
resulted in higher employee turnover, which consequently increased
recruitment and training costs. More competitive remuneration
packages can be offered to attract qualified employees. 67.7% of
surveyed hotels suggested the key operational challenge in 2014 is
the lack of room demand, which significantly outweighed all other
categories with the industry-wide view that oversupply (11.2%) is
also a major challenge. Increased operational costs and economic
uncertainty represent a combined 16.0% of total respondents.
Respondents suggested other notable initiatives included the attraction
of more investment (6.7%) and improving infrastructure (3.3%).
Figure 8: Government Initiatives Demand (2014)
Improve commercial facilities
1.1%
Improve tourism attractions
2.6%
Improve infrastructure
3.3%
Attract more investment
6.7%
Improve MICE facilities
1.1%
Figure 9: Operational Challenges (2014)
Increased customer's
expectation,1.5%
Owner's Expectation
too high, 1.1%
Other challenges, 2.6%
Economic uncertainty,
6.3%
Increased operational
costs, 9.7%
Bring more
conventions /
events 7.4%
More supportive
policy on
hotel market
18.7%
More promotion
for tourism
59%
Oversupply,
11.2%
Under-demand,
67.7%
1.6
Market Outlook
Figure 10: Three-Year Market Outlook (2015-2018)
With regards to the medium term outlook, 53.9% of sampled hotels are
very optimistic about the future. Those optimistic and holding a neutral
bias was 21.9% and 12.7% respectively. However, not all respondents
were upbeat about future trading conditions with 10.8% pessimistic
and under 1% very pessimistic.
1.7
Key Survey Findings
In summary, the results of the 2014 CTHA survey are as follows:
• The overall performance of hotels in 2013 was down. While market
conditions are estimated to improve marginally over the medium
term, 2014 may still remain a tough year for hoteliers.;
• Currently, Corporate FIT account for the highest overall demand
and this trend is set to continue. Leisure FIT demand has increased
for three consecutive years whilst group leisure travellers have
continued to decline.;
• Room and F&B revenue had a relatively equal share of total
revenue for four and five-star hotels. Rooms revenue forms a major
part of three-star or lower rating hotels’ total revenue;
• Operational costs continued to rise in 2013. According to the
survey, a lack of room demand is the biggest challenge faced by
hotels, followed by oversupply and increased costs; and
• The 2014 survey concluded that the majority of hotels (53.9%) held
very optimistic views on the future of the Mainland China’s hotel
market. This was a considerably positive turnaround compared to
2013. This strong improvement in sentiment may be partly due to
the government’s reform blueprint which has enhanced local hotel
trading sentiment and progress on rebalancing the economic
outlook. In direct contrast, measures introduced to curb conspicuous
consumption have had a negative impact on the hotel sector overall,
particularly for luxury hotels’ food and beverage revenue.
Very Pessimistic, 0.7%
Pessimistic
10.8%
Neutral
12.7%
Very optimistic,
53.9%
Optimistic,
21.9%
2. Mainland China Hotel Market – Supply & Demand Factors
2.1
Selected Cities
Based on “China 50,” JLL’s World-Winning Cities Research
Programme focusing on 50 cities across Mainland China that will
offer substantial commercial real estate opportunities over the next
decade, we have selected 38 cities of Tiers 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and 3.5,
and three other uncovered provincial capitals that we think are of
great importance to understand the Mainland China’s hotel market.
To analyse the supply and demand factors of the hotel market, we
will review the China market first and then take a closer look at the
following 41 cities.
Table 7: 41 Cities
Tier 1
Tier 1.5
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 3.5
Other Provincial
Capitals
Beijing
Chongqing
Hangzhou
Hefei
Zhengzhou
Kunming
Nanchang
Taiyuan
Lhasa
Shanghai
Tianjin
Wuhan
Qingdao
Ningbo
Hohhot
Shijiazhuang
Urumqi
Yinchuan
Guangzhou
Chengdu
Shenyang
Jinan
Changsha
Changchun
Wenzhou
Haikou
Xining
Shenzhen
Suzhou
Dalian
Dongguan
Xiamen
Foshan
Fuzhou
Lanzhou
Wuxi
Xi’an
Nanning
Harbin
Guiyang
Nanjing
Note: Ranking according to China 50, JLL
2.2
China Economic Review
2.2.2 2.2.1
GDP Growth
Hotel development throughout Mainland China is often part of a
mixed-use real estate project; therefore, real estate investment reflects
the hotel investment, or the future hotel supply, from a macro level.
Real estate development has been soaring in China, at a 10-year
CAAG of 23.3% from 2004 to 2013. The year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth
rate peaked in 2010 at 33.2%. In 2013, China’s real estate investment
volume reached RMB 8,601.3 billion, a 19.8% increase from 2012.
While credit-fuelled investment growth slows, the capital stock will
make a much lower contribution to growth. In addition, the shift
towards the service sector as the economy matures and becomes
more consumer-oriented will lead to a slowing in productivity growth.
Mainland China will also feel the effects of the one-child policy with
the working age population starting to decline from 2017. Increases
in participation and continued urbanization will help to support
the effective labour supply. According to the forecast by Oxford
Economics, China’s GDP will grow at around 7.0% annually over the
next decade.
Figure 11: GDP: National (2004-2018*)
GDP (RMB bn)
100,000
Y-o-Y Real Growth Rate (%)
20%
90,000
18%
80,000
16%
70,000
14%
60,000
12%
50,000
10%
40,000
8%
30,000
6%
20,000
4%
10,000
2%
0
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
2015*
2016*
2017*
2018*
Over the past 10 years, Mainland China’s Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) has been growing (compound average annual growth or CAAG)
at 15.1%. The GDP growth rate dropped 4.6 percentage points in
2008, mainly due to the global financial crisis, and has not rebounded
back to the 2007 level since. In 2013, the GDP growth rate hit the
lowest point over the past decade at 7.7%.
Real Estate Supply Pipeline
GDP - RMB bn
Real Growth Rate (%)
Source: China Statistics Bureau, 2014-2018* forecast from Oxford Economics
Figure 12: Real Estate Investment Volume (2004-2013)
Real Estate Investment (RMB bn)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
9,000
45%
8,000
40%
7,000
35%
6,000
30%
5,000
25%
4,000
20%
3,000
15%
2,000
10%
1,000
5%
0
2004
2005
2006
Source: China Statistics Bureau
2007
2008
Y-o-Y Change (%)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0%
2.2.3
Visitor Arrivals
Figure 13: Domestic & International Visitor Arrivals (2004-2013)
The fluctuations in growth rates of international visitor arrivals are
directly related to the international economic environment as well as
other factors. Growth was negative in 2008 (-1.4%) and 2009 (-2.7%)
due to the global financial crisis, and again in 2012 (-2.2%) and 2013
(-2.3%) when the European credit crisis peaked. In 2008, the tightened
visa policy due to the Olympics in Beijing also accounted for the drop
in this growth rate.
Visitor Arrivals to China (mil)
4,000
Conversely, the 2010 Shanghai Expo helped draw a substantial
volume of international visitors and yield the highest growth rate (5.8%)
since 2006. Domestic visitor arrivals over the past 10 years have seen
some fluctuations as well, but recorded steady growth overall. While
domestic visitor arrivals endured the lowest growth rate (6.3%) of the
past 10 years in 2008, the figure increased at double-digit rates for the
following 5 years. In 2013, domestic visitor arrivals reached 3,260
million, a 10.3% increase from 2012.
Y-o-Y Change (%)
35%
3,500
30%
3,000
25%
2,500
20%
2,000
15%
1,500
10%
1,000
5%
500
0%
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
–5%
Domestic Visitor Arrivals (mil)
International Visitor Arrivals (mil)
Y-o-Y Change (%) - Domestic
Y-o-Y Change (%) - International
Source: China National Tourism Administration
2.3
41 Cities
2.3.1 Tertiary Industry
The maturity of a city’s tertiary industry indicates the city’s tendency
to receive higher-budget travellers, as companies from the tertiary
industry generally bear higher traveling budgets compared to those
from the secondary industry.
As shown in Figure 14, 19 of the 41 cities realised more than half of its
GDP from the tertiary industry, including four Tier 1 cities, three Tier
1.5 cities, five Tier 2 cities, two Tier 3 cities, and five Tier 3.5 cities.
No correlation is seen between the city level and its tertiary industrial
contribution, as a city’s industrial composition is a result of the city’s
historical positioning and its current economic reformation policy.
The five cities with the most Y-o-Y growths in the tertiary industry
were Nanchang (20.6%), Urumqi (15.3%), Guiyang (14.6%), Lanzhou
(13.6%), and Guangzhou (13.3%). Guangzhou is the only Tier 1 city
amongst all other Tier 3 or Tier 3.5 cities.
Figure 14: Tertiary Industrial Contribution to GDP: 41 Cities (2013)
Tertiary Industry/GDP (%)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
25%
80%
20%
70%
15%
60%
10%
50%
5%
40%
0%
30%
-5%
20%
-10%
10%
-15%
0
-20%
Beijing
Haikou
Guangzhou
Hohhot
Shanghai
Urumqi
Shenzhen
Guiyang
Jinan
Taiyuan
Nanjing
Dongguan
Hangzhou
Xiamen
Xi'an
Harbin
Lanzhou
Chengdu
Qingdao
Kunming
Tianjin
Nanning
Wuhan
Wenzhou
Fuzhou
Wuxi
Suzhou
Xining
Ningbo
Shijiazhuang
Dalian
Chongqing
Zhengzhou
Chashang
Changchun
Nanchang
Hefei
Shenyang
Foshan
Yinchuan
90%
Tertiary Industry/GDP (%)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
Source: Various Statistics Bureaus
Note: Data of Lhasa is not listed due to the lack of published result.
2.3.2 Foreign Direct Investment
The actual foreign direct investment (FDI) utilized by a city tells how
many foreign companies or foreign invested projects the city attracts,
which can be a source of high-end corporate demand generator.
The four cities with over USD 10 billion of actual utilized FDI in 2013
were Tianjin, Shanghai, Dalian, and Chongqing, in descending order.
While the former three cities were still seeing double digit Y-o-Y
growth, Chongqing’s actual utilized FDI merely grew at 0.2% in 2013.
The top 5 cities with the highest Y-o-Y growth rate of actual utilized
FDI in 2013 were Hefei (96.0%), Lanzhou (44.0%), Guiyang (32.9%),
Xi’an (26.3%) and Wenzhou (25.9%). Except for Xi’an and Hefei, which
are Tier 2 cities, the remaining three cities are Tier 3 or Tier 3.5 cities.
Figure 15: Actually Utilized FDI Volume: 41 Cities (2013)
Actual Utilized FDI (USD bn)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
100%
15
80%
12
60%
9
40%
6
20%
3
0%
0
-20%
Tianjin
Shanghai
Dalian
Chongqing
Chengdu
Suzhou
Beijing
Shenyang
Qingdao
Shenzhen
Hangzhou
Wuhan
Guangzhou
Changchun
Nanjing
Dongguan
Changsha
Wuxi
Zhengzhou
Ningbo
Xi'an
Nanchang
Foshan
Hefei
Harbin
Xiamen
Kunming
Hohhot
Fuzhou
Jinan
Shijiazhuang
Taiyuan
Nanning
Guiyang
Haikou
Wenzhou
Urumqi
Yinchuan
Lanzhou
Xining
18
Actually Utilized FDI (USD bn)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
Note: Data of Lhasa is not listed due to the lack of published result.
2.3.3 Transportation Infrastructure Development
Among the 41 cities, only Suzhou and Dongguan do not have any
airports while Beijing and Shanghai each have two. The four Tier
1 cities and Chengdu ranked top five in terms of airport passenger
throughput. Beijing and Shanghai achieved 88.2 and 82.8 million of air
traffic passengers respectively, far ahead of the balance.
However, western-region cities, such as Kunming, Xi’an, and
Chongqing followed along, ranking 6th to 8th places respectively.
In particular, Kunming’s airport throughput realized a 23.8% Y-o-Y
growth, benefiting from the opening of the new Changshui International
Airport in June 2012.
Figure 16: Airport Throughput: 41 Cities (2013)
Airport Throughtput (mil)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
50%
90
40%
80
30%
70
20%
60
10%
50
0%
40
-10%
30
-20%
20
-30%
10
-40%
0
-50%
Beijing
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Chengdu
Shenzhen
Kunming
Xi'an
Chongqing
Hangzhou
Xiamen
Chashang
Wuhan
Urumqi
Nanjing
Qingdao
Dalian
Zhengzhou
Shenyang
Haikou
Guiyang
Harbin
Tianjin
Fuzhou
Nanning
Jinan
Taiyuan
Nanchang
Changchun
Wenzhou
Hohhot
Lanzhou
Hefei
Ningbo
Shijiazhuang
Yinchuan
Wuxi
Xining
Lhasa
Foshan
100
Airport Throughtput (mil)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
Source: Civil Aviation Administration of China
Note: Suzhou and Dongguan are not included due to lack of airports.
2.4 Hotel Demand Drivers
Grade-A Office Buildings
Hotel demand can be segmented by travel purposes, including
corporate, Meetings, Incentives, Conventions, Exhibitions (MICE), and
leisure. Each demand segment can be driven by different infrastructure
or represented by various indicators.
The tenants of Grade-A office buildings are usually renowned multinational firms or industry leaders, which are an important source of
corporate demand for hotels generally.
2.4.1 Corporate Demand Drivers
Commercial real estate, especially high-quality office buildings and
business parks, are often indicators of corporate demand. Supply and
demand of these commercial properties can show a city’s potential
corporate demand.
Figure 17 shows the Grade-A office stock and vacancy level of the 20
cities tracked by JLL.
By year end 2013, the four Tier 1 cities and the uprising Tier 1.5 city
Chengdu were leading the stock levels among all the 20 cities. It is
forecasted that in three years, Grade-A office stock in Changsha will
go up by 873.8%, Shenyang 444.2%, Chongqing 240.4%. Moreover,
by the end of 2016, Shenzhen will replace Guangzhou to have the
third largest Grade-A office stock.
Figure 17: Grade-A Office Stock: Recorded Cities (2013 & 2016*)
Grade-A Office Stock ('000 sqm)
Vacancy Rate (%)
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Total Stock YE 2013
Source: JLL
*Estimated data
Total Stock YE 2016*
Vacancy Rate YE 2013
Vacancy Rate YE 2016*
Changsha
Wuxi
Qingdao
Tianjin
Shenyang
Zhengzhou
Xiamen
Ningbo
Chongqing
Nanjing
Wuhan
Suzhou
Xi'an
Hangzhou
Dalian
Chengdu
Shenzhen
Guangzhou
Shanghai
0
Beijing
2,000
Business Parks
2.4.2 MICE Demand Drivers
High-quality business parks are home to multinational companies’
headquarters, R&D (research and development) centres, and backservice offices, covering industries like electronics, technology,
communications, etc. Table 8 lists the high-quality business park stock
in 13 Chinese cities. The four Tier 1 cities have the largest high-quality
business park stocks. Among the balance, eight were Tier 1.5 cities,
with Hangzhou ranking the third with a stock of 5.0 million square
metres. Xi’an was the only Tier 2 city listed here.
MICE demand is another major driver of hotel occupancy. MICE
events are supposed to fill a rather large number of room nights in
any dedicated time period. The latest data released by International
Congress and Convention Association (ICCA) indicates that Mainland
China hosted 311 international conferences in 2012, compared to
302 in 2011. Figure 18 illustrates the cities that hosted five or more
international conferences in 2012 and 2011.
Table 8: High-Quality Business Park Stock: Recorded Cities (2013)
City
Supply (mil sqm.)
Shanghai
7.3
Shenzhen
5.0
Hangzhou
5.0
Beijing
3.9
Guangzhou
3.4
Suzhou
3.1
Nanjing
2.8
Tianjin
2.5
Dalian
2.5
Chengdu
2.5
Wuhan
1.1
Xi'an
0.7
Chongqing
0.6
Beijing and Shanghai remained the top two destinations for
international conferences in 2012; however, a dilution of the
conference volume amongst more cities could be seen. The number
of cities that hosted five or more international conferences was 13
in 2012, increasing from 11 in 2011. While the conference volumes
of Beijing and Shanghai decreased from 2011 to 2012, cities like
Tianjin, Nanjing, Wuhan, Xiamen, Guangzhou, and Suzhou witnessed
increase in conference volume.
Source: JLL
2012 International Conference Volume
2011 International Conference Volume
Source: International Congress & Conference Association
Note: International conferences above are those held in more than three countries
alternately.
Changsha
Chongqing
Dalian
Suzhou
Shenzhen
Guangzhou
Xiamen
Wuhan
Nanjing
Chengdu
Tianjin
Xi'an
Shanghai
Beijing
Number of International Conferences
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hangzhou
Figure 18: International Conference Volume: 2012 vs. 2011
Figure 19 extends to international MICE demand. Worldwide
international conference volume endured a fast recovery in 2004 after
the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003
and yet another significant slowdown in the growth rate in 2008 when
the global economic crisis happened. This slowdown in the MICE
market continued until 2012, when the Y-o-Y growth of the worldwide
international conference volume picked up to 10.8%, an indication that
the global economy is showing signs of recovery.
2.4.3 Leisure Demand Drivers
The leisure demand driver is hard to be captured with one
comprehensive measurement, but a city’s inbound visitor arrivals and
tourism receipts can reflect the city’s lodging demand as a tourism
destination from a broad perspective.
As shown in Figure 20, the top five cities that received the most visitor
arrivals in 2013 were Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan, Chengdu, and Tianjin,
all major gateway cities (Tier 1 and Tier 1.5) in West, East, and Central
China. The five cities that experienced the most rapid Y-o-Y growth
from 2012 to 2013 were Yinchuan (50.4%), Nanchang (30.2%),
Lanzhou (28.0%), Xi’an (27.0%), and Chengdu (26.0%), with more
cities in the lower Tiers 2 to 3.5.
Figure 19: International Conference Volume: Global (2003-2012)
Number of International Conferences
12,000
Y-o-Y Change (%)
30%
10,000
20%
8,000
10%
6,000
0%
4,000
-10%
2,000
-20%
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Worldwide International Conference Volume
Y-o-Y Change (%)
Source: International Congress and Conference Association
Figure 20: Total Visitor Arrivals: 41 Cities (2013)
Total Visitor Arrivals (mil)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
60%
280
50%
240
40%
200
30%
160
20%
120
10%
80
0%
40
-10%
0
-20%
Shanghai
Beijing
Wuhan
Chengdu
Tianjin
Xi'an
Hangzhou
Suzhou
Changsha
Nanjing
Shenyang
Wuxi
Zhengzhou
Chongqing
Ningbo
Qingdao
Guiyang
Hefei
Wenzhou
Kunming
Harbin
Dalian
Guangzhou
Shijiazhuang
Xiamen
Shenzhen
Foshan
Taiyuan
Fuzhou
Nanchang
Dongguan
Lanzhou
Urumqi
Jinan
Xining
Haikou
Yinchuan
Lhasa
320
Total Visitor Arrivals (mil)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
Note: Data of Nanning and Changchun are not listed due to the lack of published
results.
-30%
The top five cities with the highest tourism income in 2013 were
Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Wuhan, all from Tier 1
or Tier 1.5. The five cities that saw the highest growth rates from 2013
were Lanzhou (35.0%), Nanchang (34.2%), Xining (33.9%), Changsha
(28.5%), and Chengdu (26.0%). Lanzhou, Nanchang, and Chengdu
are the three cities that endured the most growths in terms of both
visitor arrivals and tourism receipts.
Figure 21: Total Tourism Receipt: 41 Cities (2013)
Total Tourism Receipt (RMB bn)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
60%
350
50%
300
40%
250
30%
200
20%
150
10%
100
0%
50
-10%
0
-20%
Beijing
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Chongqing
Wuhan
Hangzhou
Suzhou
Nanjing
Chengdu
Wuxi
Tianjin
Changsha
Ningbo
Qingdao
Shenyang
Dalian
Xi'an
Zhengzhou
Guiyang
Harbin
Xiamen
Wenzhou
Jinan
Hefei
Kunming
Dongguan
Foshan
Taiyuan
Fuzhou
Shijiazhuang
Nanchang
Shenzhen
Urumqi
Lanzhou
Haikou
Lhasa
Xining
Yinchuan
400
Total Tourism Receipt (RMB bn)
Y-o-Y Change (%)
Note: Data of Nanning, Hohhot, and Changchun are not listed due to the lack of
published results.
2.5 Hotel Supply & Development
As Mainland China's real estate development and urbanization
progresses, the number of new hotels will continue to grow. By the
end of 2013, the four Tier 1 cities comprised more than 40% of the
total hotel room stock in the total sample. However, lower tier cities
have seen and will witness stronger growth in their hotel markets.
2.5.1 Existing Supply
The total hotel room stock in the 41 cities rose from 202,570 rooms
in 2010 to 292,215 rooms in 2013, recording a CAAG of 13.0% since
2010. Shanghai (51,144 rooms) and Beijing (34,554 rooms) are far
leading the existing stock, followed by Guangzhou (19,054 rooms),
Shenzhen (13,141 rooms), and Chongqing (12,152 rooms).
While the existing hotel room stock is concentrated in the Tier 1 cities,
greater growths have been seen in the lower tier cities. The top five
cities with the highest CAAG from 2010 to 2013 were Shijiazhuang
(55.8%), Hefei (53.0%), Changchun (43.7%), Guangzhou (42.0%),
and Guiyang (36.7%).
Figure 22: Hotel Room Stock: 41 Cities (2013)
Shanghai
Beijing
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Chongqing
Tianjin
Hangzhou
Xi'an
Chengdu
Shenyang
Qingdao
Wuhan
Suzhou
Xiamen
Dalian
Ningbo
Wuxi
Nanjing
Dongguan
Zhengzhou
Hefei
Changsha
Foshan
Taiyuan
Kunming
Guiyang
Jinan
Hohhot
Haikou
Nanning
Harbin
Yinchuan
Nanchang
Fuzhou
Urumqi
Shijiazhuang
Wenzhou
Changchun
Lanzhou
Lhasa
Xining
0
5,000
10,000
2010 Existing Stock
Source: JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group, Industry Information
Note: Above data includes international-branded hotels only.
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Number of Hotel Rooms
2010–2013 New Supply
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
2.5.2 Future Supply
Table 9: Future Hotel Room Stock: 41 Cities (YE 2016)
Table 9 lists the cities by estimated future hotel room stock by the end
of 2016, if all projects materialised. The five cities that are expected to
endure the largest CAAG in future stock from 2013 to 2016 are Lhasa
(41.3%), Kunming (40.7%), Xining (39.7%), Haikou (38.5%), and
Chengdu (37.6%). Chengdu’s hotel room stock is expected to increase
from over 10,000 rooms by YE 2013 to more than 24,000 rooms by YE
2016 and 26,000 rooms by YE 2017, while the other four fast growing
cities have relatively low existing stock of hotel rooms.
Real estate investment volume in year now means new projects that
can be expected to materialize in the future three to five years. As
mentioned in section 2.1.2, real estate investment can provide a rough
estimate of the future hotel supply. Figure 23 shows that the top 10
cities by real estate investment in 2013 were Beijing, Chongqing,
Shanghai, Shenyang, Chengdu, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Dalian, Xi’an, and
Guangzhou.
Cities
> 20,000
Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou
10,001 – 20,000
Tianjin, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan,
Xi’an, Suzhou, Qingdao, Shenyang, Xiamen
7,001 – 10,000
Changsha, Wuxi, Dalian, Nanjing, Ningbo, Zhengzhou,
Kunming, Foshan
4,001 – 7,000
Haikou, Hefei, Dongguan, Taiyuan, Guiyang, Jinan
Source: JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group, Industry Information
Note: Cities in red are newly included in the respective category this year.
While these cities were mostly in Tier1 and Tier1.5, cities with the most
increase in real estate investment from 2012 to 2013 were in the lower
tiers. The top 10 cities with the highest Y-o-Y growth were Haikou,
Kunming, Xining, Zhengzhou, Dongguan, Fuzhou, Hohhot, Lanzhou,
Ningbo, and Urumqi.
Figure 23: Real Estate Investment: 41 Cities (2013)
400
Y-o-Y Change (%)
60%
50%
300
40%
250
30%
200
20%
150
10%
100
0%
50
-10%
0
-20%
Beijing
Chongqing
Shanghai
Shenyang
Chengdu
Wuhan
Hangzhou
Dalian
Xi'an
Guangzhou
Tianjin
Suzhou
Changsha
Kunming
Fuzhou
Chashang
Wuxi
Ningbo
Nanjing
Hefei
Qingdao
Shijiazhuang
Shenzhen
Harbin
Foshan
Wenzhou
Jinan
Changchun
Hohhot
Xiamen
Dongguan
Taiyuan
Nanning
Nanchang
Yinchuan
Haikou
Lanzhou
Urumqi
Xining
350
Y-o-Y Change (%)
Note: Data of Guiyang and Lhasa are not listed due to the lack of published results.
3. The Future of Hotels in Mainland China
Mainland China’s hotel transformation occurred during the 1980s,
probably best demonstrated by the well-known Jianguo Hotel.
Located in Beijing’s diplomatic quarter, the hotel is synonymous with
the hospitality transformation in the Mainland. Fast forward to 2008,
the Aman at the Summer Palace, developed and built by the Beijing
Tourism Group in collaboration with Aman Resorts, also made a major
impact. At the time, the hotel raised industry standards for luxury and
innovation. This was obviously a taste of things to come.
Hotel developers in the Mainland continue to outdo each other with the
most ambitious, luxurious and aesthetically pleasing projects
imaginable. Capturing the world’s attention most recently is the
Sheraton Huzhou Hot Spring Resort. The 27-storey hotel looms over
the skyline of Huzhou, near Shanghai. Set on the shores of Lake
Taihu and offering 321 spacious guest rooms, including 44 suites and
39 villas, it's an ideal destination for the Mainland newly affluent
business class.
Coming in 2015 will be the Intercontinental Shimao Shanghai
Wonderland, a 19-story, 380-room luxury hotel and theme park,
developed by Shanghai Shimao Property Group. Constructed only
three stories above ground, the hotel has been built into an abandoned
quarry in Songjiang. Whilst the hotel will include several F&B options
including an underwater restaurant, spa and an athletic complex for
water sports with a 32-feet deep aquarium below ground, above
ground guests will be able to use the quarry’s cliffs for extreme sports
like bungee jumping and rock climbing. The highlight of this hotel will
be a 60-meter tall glass curtain wall that is intended to mimic a
waterfall next to the resort’s main structure.
Overall, Mainland China is a key expansion proposition in Asia Pacific
for many international hotel chains who are vying to establish a
foothold in what is the region’s single largest market. JLL estimates
that over 400,000 rooms across 1,500 projects – 75% of total Asia
Pacific supply – is under construction or proposed. But development
aside, these new international brands must also ‘localise’ for the highly
competitive Chinese market.
International hotel chains are adapting their services to suit unique
Chinese preferences. Hotel operator Accor has focused on Mainland
China as it re-engineered its Grand Mercure brand to tailor to the
needs of the wealthy Chinese traveller. Known in Chinese as ‘Mei
Jue’, the upscale hotels are highly influenced by Chinese design and
each property is tailored to the characteristics of the Chinese city in
which it operates. It’s not just the grand designs that make a brand
distinctly ‘Chinese’. Grand Mercure, for example, caters to Chinese
palates by offering a 24-hour congee menu.
Besides localising its existing brands, InterContinental Hotels Group
(IHG), one of the largest international hotel operators in the country,
has develop a new luxury hotel concept designed specifically for
Chinese guests. Hualuxe – which uses the Chinese word “Hua” for
majestic and in English “luxe” for luxury – will debut this year. Hualuxe
will offer guests a more traditional experience based on four priorities
that Chinese travellers are said to require: Chinese etiquette,
rejuvenation, status recognition, and space for social interaction.
In the competitive international hotel market a “one size fits all”
approach doesn’t work. In a world where cross-cultural influences
affect even the biggest brands, being responsive to changes in
consumer preferences could prove to be the difference between
success and failure. As hotel operators continue to seek opportunities
throughout Mainland China, we can expect global brands entering the
market with innovative ways to identify with the local culture. And we
can also be sure to bid farewell to the few who fail to localise.
Attachment: List of Provinces in each region
North China: Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei
East China: Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong
Central China: Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian
South China: Guangdong, Hainan, Guangxi
West China: Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan,
Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang
JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group
JLL Hotels & Hospitality Group serves as the hospitality industry’s global leader in real estate services for luxury, upscale, select service
and budget hotels; timeshare and fractional ownership properties; convention centers; mixed-use developments and other hospitality
properties. The firm’s more than 265 dedicated hotel and hospitality experts partner with investors and owner/operators around the globe
to support and shape investment strategies that deliver maximum value throughout the entire lifecycle of an asset. In the last five years,
the team completed more transactions than any other hotels and hospitality real estate advisor in the world totalling nearly US$30 billion,
while also completing approximately 4,000 advisory, valuation and asset management assignments. The group’s hotels and hospitality
specialists provide independent and expert advice to clients, backed by industry-leading research.
For more news, videos and research from JLL‘s Hotels & Hospitality Group, please visit: www.jll.com/hospitality or download the Hotels
& Hospitality Group’s app from the App Store.
About CTHA
Established in February 1982, the CTHA is a national non-profit industry organization formed, in a voluntary manner, by the association
of tourist hotels, local hotels, hotel management companies, hotel equipment & supplies providers and other relevant organizations
in China as well as the hotel experts and senior scholars, under the operational guidance, supervision and management of the China
National Tourism Administration. The CTHA’s mission is to act in compliance with local law, protect its members’ legal rights and
interests and serve as a bridge between its members and the Government. Today, the CTHA counts 2,700 members, 333 directors, 115
standing directors and 25 vice presidents. Mr. Zhang Run Gang is the president of the Association. The CTHA serves its members by
strengthening communication amongst its members, collecting information on the domestic and international hotel market, providing hotel
training programs and forums and by liaising with overseas hotel & tourism organizations. In 1994, the CTHA joined the International
Hotel & Restaurant Association as one of its directors.
Disclaimer
This report is confidential to the recipient of the report. No reference to the report or any part of it may be published in any document,
statement or circular or in any communication with third parties without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels &
Hospitality Group, including specifically in relation to the form and context in which it will appear.
We stress that forecasting is a problematical exercise which at best should be regarded as an indicative assessment of possibilities
rather than absolute certainties. The process of making forward projections involves assumptions in respect of a considerable number
of variables which are acutely sensitive to changing conditions, variations in any one of which may significantly affect the outcome and
we draw your attention to this factor. Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels & Hospitality Group makes no representation, warranty, assurance or
guarantee with respect to any material with which this report may be issued and this report should not be taken as an endorsement of or
recommendation on any participation by any intending investor or any other party in any transaction whatsoever.
This report has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. Users should not rely on this report and must
make their own enquiries to verify and satisfy themselves of all aspects of information set out in the report. We have used and relied
upon information from sources generally regarded as authoritative and reputable, but the information obtained from these sources may
not have been independently verified by Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels & Hospitality Group.
Whilst the material contained in the report has been prepared in good faith and with due care, no representation or warranty is made
in relation to the accuracy, currency, completeness, suitability or otherwise of the whole or any part of the report. Jones Lang LaSalle
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person for any loss, liability, damage or expense (“liability”) arising directly or indirectly from or connected in any way with any use of or
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Perth
Level 29, Central Park
152-158 St Georges Terrace
Perth WA 6000
tel +61 8 9322 5111
fax +61 8 9481 0107
Rome
Via Bissolati 20
00187 Rome, Italy
tel +39 6 4200 6771
fax +39 6 4200 6720
San Francisco
One Front Street, Suite 300
San Francisco, CA 94111, United States
tel +1 415 395 4900
fax +1 415 955 1150
São Paulo
Rua Joaquim Floriano, 72 – cj. 97
04534-000 São Paulo, SP, Brazil
tel +55 11 3071 0747
fax +55 11 3071 4766
Shanghai
25/F Tower 2 Plaza 66
1366 Nanjing Road (West)
Jing An District
Shanghai 200040, China (PRC)
tel +86 21 6393 3333
fax +86 21 62888 2246
Singapore
9 Raffles Place, #38-01 Republic Plaza
Singapore 048619
tel +65 6536 0606
fax +65 6533 2107
Sydney
Level 26, 420 George Street
Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
tel +61 2 9220 8777
fax +61 2 9220 8765
Tokyo
4th Floor, Prudential Tower
2-13-10 Nagatacho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 100-0014, Japan
tel +81 3 5501 9240
fax +81 3 5501 9211
Washington D.C.
1801 K Street NW, Suite 1000
Washington, DC 20006, United States
tel +1 202 719 5000
fax +1 202 719 5001
www.jll.com/hospitality
Jones Lang LaSalle Property Consultants Pte Ltd | CEA Licence No. L3007326E
© 2014 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

China Hotel Market Overview 2014

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