Retail Market Demand and Impact
Transcription
Retail Market Demand and Impact
Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis County Road 2 (White Lake Road) Town of Arnprior, ON Prepared for: White Lake Road Investments Ltd. August 2008 TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Mr. Michael Michaud White Lake Road Investments Ltd. Land Development Manager 2705 Queensview Drive Ottawa, ON, K2B 8K2 August 29, 2008 Re: Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Town of Arnprior Dear Mr. Michaud: Tate Economic Research Inc. is pleased to submit our report that examines the market demand and potential impacts of a 250,000 square foot retail centre anchored by a department store and a potential relocated and expanded Canadian Tire in the Town of Arnprior. It is the professional opinion of Tate Economic Research Inc. that the proposed retail development should be approved on the basis of market demand and impact. Thank you for the opportunity to conduct this assignment on your behalf and we look forward to discussing these results with you. Yours truly, TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. James P. Tate President 212 King Street, Suite 202, Toronto, Ontario M5H 1K5 Tel: 416-260-9884 Fax: 416-260-0311 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................ I 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2 REVIEW OF SITE AND SURROUNDINGS .......................................................................................5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3 NFOR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL .................................................................................................14 FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (FOR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL ..................................................15 7.1 8 STUDY YEARS .............................................................................................................................13 POPULATION FORECAST...............................................................................................................13 POPULATION LEVELS CONCLUSION ...............................................................................................13 NON FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (NFOR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL.......................................14 6.1 7 INVENTORY OF COMMERCIAL RETAIL SPACE IN THE PRIMARY ZONE ...............................................10 DEPARTMENT STORE COMPETITION IN THE STUDY AREA ...............................................................11 SUPERMARKET COMPETITION IN THE STUDY AREA ........................................................................11 GENERAL MERCHANDISE COMPETITION IN THE PRIMARY ZONE ......................................................12 OTHER NFOR COMPETITION IN THE PRIMARY ZONE .....................................................................12 PROPOSED COMPETITION IN THE PRIMARY ZONE ..........................................................................12 INVENTORY OF RETAIL SPACE CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................12 POPULATION LEVELS ...................................................................................................................13 5.1 5.2 5.3 6 DEFINITION OF THE TERM “STUDY AREA” ........................................................................................7 LICENCE PLATE SURVEY ................................................................................................................7 THE DELINEATED STUDY AREA .......................................................................................................8 LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS .................................................................................................9 STUDY AREA CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................9 INVENTORY OF RETAIL SPACE ...................................................................................................10 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5 THE SITE DESCRIPTION, LOCATION AND LOCAL ROAD NETWORK .....................................................5 THE DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT PLAN AND SITE ACCESSIBILITY .........................................................5 SURROUNDING LAND USES ............................................................................................................5 SITE AND SURROUNDINGS CONCLUSION .........................................................................................6 STUDY AREA ....................................................................................................................................7 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4 BACKGROUND ...............................................................................................................................1 THE ARNPRIOR OP MARKET IMPACT TEST......................................................................................2 STUDY APPROACH .........................................................................................................................2 STUDY YEARS ...............................................................................................................................3 FOR EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL....................................................................................................15 DEPARTMENT STORE - NFOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS.........................................................................................................................16 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 DEPARTMENT STORE SHARE OF TOTAL NFOR EXPENDITURES .....................................................16 DEPARTMENT STORE - NFOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS ......................................16 DEPARTMENT STORE - NFOR COMPONENT MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS ........................................17 DEPARTMENT STORE - NFOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS..................................................................................................17 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 9 DEPARTMENT STORE - FOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS MARKET ........................................................................................................18 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 10 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 SUPERMARKET SHARES OF TOTAL FOR EXPENDITURES ...............................................................18 DEPARTMENT STORE - FOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS .........................................18 DEPARTMENT STORE - FOR COMPONENT MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS ...........................................19 DEPARTMENT STORE - FOR COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................20 GENERAL MERCHANDISE DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS.............................................21 GENERAL MERCHANDISE SHARE OF TOTAL NFOR EXPENDITURES ............................................21 GENERAL MERCHANDISE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS ...............................................................21 GENERAL MERCHANDISE MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS .................................................................23 GENERAL MERCHANDISE DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS ...................................23 OTHER NFOR MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS ..................................................24 OTHER NFOR SHARE OF TOTAL NFOR EXPENDITURES ...........................................................24 OTHER NFOR MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS ..............................................................................25 OTHER NFOR MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS ................................................................................26 OTHER NFOR MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS CONCLUSION .......................................26 APPENDIX A – INVENTORY OF COMPETITIVE RETAIL SPACE..................................................... A-1 APPENDIX B – LICENCE PLATE SURVEY ........................................................................................ B-1 APPENDIX C – STUDY AREA IN-HOME CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS..................................... C-1 APPENDIX D – BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND DEFINITION OF TERMS ............................................ D-1 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Executive Summary Tate Economic Research Inc. (TER) was retained by White Lake Road Investments Ltd. (the “Developer”) to investigate the retail market demand and impact implications of developing approximately 250,000 square feet of retail space on a 34.3 acre site situated on the south side of County Road 2 (White Lake Road) west of Highway 17. The Developer proposes that the retail development (Subject Development or Site) will be anchored by a department store and a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire store. The remainder of the centre will be comprised of ancillary retail and service uses. The following chart summarizes the approximate distribution of space proposed for the Subject Development. SUBJECT DEVELOPMENT Department Store Canadian Tire Ancillary Retail Space Ancillary Service Space Total Proposed Development Square Feet 125,000 50,000 50,000 25,000 250,000 Background The Town of Arnprior currently has no department store. In addition the Canadian Tire location is an older format store. As a result, residents have to make shopping trips to other locations, such as Renfrew or Ottawa, to fulfil many of their comparison shopping goods needs. A national department store has expressed an interest in operating a store on the Site. The Site is presently designated Highway Commercial – Exception Two in the Town of Arnprior Official Plan (Arnprior OP) and zoned as Highway Commercial – Exception Four in the Town of Arnprior Zoning By-Law No 4990-20011. A department store, as well as the other proposed commercial retail uses proposed by the Developer, is not permitted under the existing Site permissions. The Developer is seeking an amendment of the Arnprior OP to redesignate the Site for Shopping Centre Commercial uses and a rezoning to Shopping Centre Commercial (SC) Zone in order to permit the Subject Development. 1 Note: The policies relating to Exception Two of the Arnprior OP and Exception Four of the Arnprior Zoning By-Law are site specific permissions for golf course and golf driving range uses in addition to other permitted uses under the Highway Commercial designation and zoning. i Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Summary of Findings There are currently no department stores in the Study Area. • The closest department stores are located in Renfrew, Carleton Place or Ottawa approximately 25-45 kilometres from Arnprior. • A new department store will provide local consumers with access to a new format of retail currently unavailable in the marketplace. The existing Arnprior Canadian Tire is an older format store and undersized for the market. • The Arnprior Canadian Tire store was established in the 1970s. However a significant portion of shoppers from Arnprior and the surrounding areas are shopping at other Canadian Tire locations elsewhere. The proposed new retail centre will contribute to modernizing the supply of commercial space in Arnprior and will strengthen the attraction of Arnprior as a retail destination. • Communities such as Renfrew, Carleton Place or Ottawa have several newer, modern format, stores offering expanded merchandise lines. Study Area residents are making shopping trips to these other locations to fulfil many of their comparison shopping goods needs. The Site is suitable for the development of a 250,000 square foot shopping centre. • The Site is already designated and zoned for commercial uses and will complement the existing commercial uses established along Daniel Street to the east as well as other land uses in the surrounding area. The planned extension of Highway 417 and the addition of a new highway interchange at White Lake Road will provide greater exposure and accessibility to the Site. • The Site’s location provides exposure to traffic travelling along the Highway 417/17 Trans-Canada Highway corridor and is easily accessible to both local residents and pass-by traffic. ii Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Population and expenditure growth is forecast to increase throughout the Study Area and will continue beyond the study period. • The Study Area is forecast to experience an increase in population from 30,170 in 2007 to 34,960 by 2017. This forecast growth will create demand for additional retail and service space in the market. There is sufficient market demand to warrant the development of the proposed 125,000 square foot department store including a food/grocery store component of approximately 35,000 square feet in Arnprior. • The TER analysis demonstrates that there is market demand for the proposed department store with an expanded food component. • The proposed new department store will satisfy a gap in the market and will result in the recapture of a significant portion of expenditures currently leaving the market. • The food/grocery store component will provide local residents with another supermarket option in the market. There is sufficient market demand to warrant the relocation and expansion of the Arnprior Canadian Tire store to a 50,000 square foot new format store on the Site. • The introduction of a new format Canadian Tire store in Arnprior will result in the recapture of local expenditures leaving the market and will contribute to the attractiveness of Arnprior as a retail destination. • The relocation of the Canadian Tire to the Site, approximately 1.4 kilometres to the west of its current location, will not negatively influence the continued viability of other businesses situated along Daniel Street or in the Arnprior Downtown Core. The proposed 75,000 square foot ancillary retail and service component will increase the supply of commercial retail and service space options in the market and will contribute to modernizing the supply of commercial space available in Arnprior. • There is sufficient demand to phase in the development of 50,000 square feet of ancillary retail and 25,000 square feet of ancillary service space on the Site over the study period. This space is in addition to other ancillary retail space proposed in the market. iii Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis • It is our professional opinion that this proposed new ancillary space will recapture a portion of Study Area residents’ expenditures currently leaving the market. Conclusion It is the professional opinion of Tate Economic Research Inc. that the proposed development of a 250,000 square foot retail centre anchored by a department store and a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire on the White Lake Road Investments Ltd. Site is warranted on the basis of market demand and impact. This development will satisfy a gap in the market and will result in the recapture of expenditures that are presenting leaving the market. It is the professional opinion of Tate Economic Research Inc. that “the viability of the proposed retail development does not depend on the detrimental transfer of sales from existing businesses and that there will be no adverse impacts which compromise the viability of existing retail businesses.” Therefore, it is the opinion of Tate Economic Research Inc. that the OPA and rezoning proposed by White Lake Road Investments Ltd. be approved, with respect to market demand and impact. iv Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 1 Introduction Tate Economic Research Inc. (TER) was retained by White Lake Road Investments Ltd. (the “Developer”) to investigate the retail market demand and impact implications of developing approximately 250,000 square feet of retail space on a 34.3 acre site situated on the south side of County Road 2 (White Lake Road) west of Highway 17. The Developer proposes that the retail development (Subject Development or Site) will be anchored by a department store and a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire store. The remainder of the centre will be comprised of ancillary retail and service uses. The following chart summarizes the approximate distribution of space proposed for the Subject Development. SUBJECT DEVELOPMENT Department Store Canadian Tire Ancillary Retail Space Ancillary Service Space Total Proposed Development 1.1 Square Feet 125,000 50,000 50,000 25,000 250,000 Background The Site is designated Highway Commercial – Exception Two in the Town of Arnprior Official Plan (Arnprior OP) and zoned as Highway Commercial – Exception Four in the Town of Arnprior Zoning By-Law No 4990-20012. A department store, as well as the other proposed commercial retail uses proposed by the Developer, is not permitted under the existing Site permissions. The Developer is seeking an amendment of the Arnprior OP to redesignate the Site for Shopping Centre Commercial uses and a rezoning to Shopping Centre Commercial (SC) Zone in order to permit the Subject Development. TER has been instructed by the Developer to evaluate the anticipated market demand and impact of a 125,000 square foot department store with a food/grocery store component of approximately 35,000 square feet. In addition, TER has also been instructed to evaluate the opportunity for a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire on the Site. 2 Note: The policies relating to Exception Two of the Arnprior OP and Exception Four of the Arnprior Zoning By-Law are site specific permissions for golf course and golf driving range uses in addition to other permitted uses under the Highway Commercial designation and zoning. 1 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 1.2 The Arnprior OP Market Impact Test Section 5.3, policy (6) of the Arnprior OP states, “New shopping centres shall only be permitted by amendment to this Plan. Any amendment submitted must be supported by a retail and impact analysis”. However, this policy does not define a specific ‘market test’ which a retail and impact analysis is to address. TER has been instructed by Arnprior planning staff to follow the guidelines of the market test defined under section 3.3 Mixed Use Commercial policy (7) of the Arnprior OP which states: “The study would have to demonstrate that the viability of the proposed retail development does not depend on the detrimental transfer of sales from existing businesses and that there will be no adverse impacts which comprise the viability of existing retail businesses.” TER’s market demand and impact analysis has been designed to address this Arnprior OP policy. However, in TER’s opinion, the application of the above market test, in terms of evaluating “detrimental transfers of sales” and “adverse impacts” is a more conservative approach to evaluating the Subject Development than may be required under Section 5.3 policy (6) of the Arnprior OP. 1.3 Study Approach TER’s work plan is based on primary research, consumer research, field inspections and a detailed market demand and impact analysis. The study approach is outlined below in greater detail: • Review of Site and Surroundings – TER reviewed the Site in terms of its accessibility, visibility, synergies with other uses, etc. This review concluded with commentary regarding the appropriateness of the site for the proposed Subject Development. • Licence Plate Surveys – TER designed a licence plate survey of vehicles at Arnprior Shopping Centre (anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store) and in the parking area of the No Frills supermarket anchoring Winners Circle in the Town of Arnprior (see Appendix B). This research was conducted in order to gather information relating to the current distribution and the draw of major retailers in the vicinity of the Site. This information, in turn, assisted TER in delineating the Study Area for the proposed Subject Development. • Study Area Delineation – Based on the results of the licence plate survey and TER’s professional judgement, a Study Area for the proposed Subject Development was delineated. This Study Area was further subdivided into a 2 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Primary Zone and two Secondary Zones, allowing for a greater level of detail in our analysis. • Inventory of Competitive Retail/Service Space – TER’s research included a complete inventory of all retail and service space in the Primary Zone (comprised of the Town of Arnprior and a portion of McNab/Braeside). This information was incorporated into our analyses (see Appendix A for a summary of the inventory and maps). • In-Home Consumer Telephone Survey – An in-home consumer telephone survey of approximately 600 Study Area residents was conducted (see Appendix C). This survey determined current expenditure patterns of Study Area residents as they relate to major retail store categories. • Population and Expenditure Forecast – Based on the Census of Canada, and population forecast data for the Town of Arnprior and surrounding municipalities comprising the Study Area, TER forecast population levels from 2007 to 2017. Based primarily on Census and Statistics Canada information, Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) and Food Oriented Retail (FOR) expenditure volumes were forecast over this study period. • Market Demand Analysis – Based on existing and anticipated shopping patterns identified from the in-home consumer telephone survey and the expenditure volumes determined above, TER forecast the demand for a department store with a food/grocery component, a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire store and other ancillary non food oriented retail space comprising the proposed Subject Development. • Impact Analysis – TER forecast the impact of the proposed Subject Development on the existing retail businesses in the Primary Zone. This work plan has assisted TER in developing our professional opinion regarding the market demand and impact implications of the proposed Subject Development. 1.4 Study Years TER has assumed the year 2007 as the base year for the calculation of per capita expenditure volumes and population levels in this analysis. For the purposes of our analysis, TER has also assumed that the Subject Development will be developed over two phases. Phase 1 is assumed to be in operation before the end of 2010 and will include the department store, the relocated and expanded Canadian Tire store and approximately 3 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 25,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR3 space. In addition, TER has also recognized the operation of other retail developments proposed in the market at this time. TER has analysed the first full year of operation of this entire space in 2011. Phase 2 of the Subject Development will consist an additional 25,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR space and 25,000 square feet of ancillary service space. TER has analysed the first full year of operation of this phase in 2013. In addition, TER has also recognized the retenanting of the existing Arnprior Canadian Tire store in 2013. In order to test the longer term market conditions in the Study Area, TER has also analysed the years 2015 and 2017. 3 For the purpose of this analysis “Other NFOR” is defined as total NFOR, less department stores, and general merchandise expenditures. 4 SITE AND ACCESS Arnprior Shopping Centre Winners Circle Service Station Truck Stop & Resturant Subject Site Airport Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 2 Review of Site and Surroundings From the perspective of market demand, TER reviewed the Site in terms of its access, visibility, surrounding land uses and the road and transportation network in the vicinity of the Site. It is the purpose of this section of the report to determine the suitability of the Site for ‘Shopping Centre Commercial’ uses, as proposed. 2.1 The Site Description, Location and Local Road Network The Site is situated on the west side of the Town of Arnprior, west of where Highway 417 presently transitions into Highway 17. Highway 417/17 is part of the TransCanada Highway corridor and function as the primary transportation route between Ottawa and communities in Northern Ontario. An extension of Highway 417 to the north of Arnprior is scheduled to begin in 2011. A new highway interchange with White Lake Road to the east of the Site will be added. The Site is visible from traffic travelling along this major transportation corridor. The location of the Site is indicated on the aerial photo shown opposite. The Site is approximately 34.3 acres and situated on the east corner of County Road 2 (White Lake Road) and Van Dusen Drive in Arnprior. The Site is designated and zoned for Highway Commercial uses, a portion of which is occupied by an outdoor Golf Centre. The Site has frontage along both White Lake Road and Van Dusen Drive. White Lake Road is currently a two-lane highway that turns into Daniel Street at its intersection with Baskin Drive to the east of the Site. Daniel Street is the primary transportation route into downtown Arnprior from the west and contains the majority of the Town’s larger commercial businesses. 2.2 The Development Concept Plan and Site Accessibility The Developer is proposing to develop these lands as a 250,000 square foot shopping centre anchored by a department store and a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire. The remainder of the shopping centre will be tenanted with approximately 75,000 square feet of ancillary retail and service uses. The concept plan, which follows, shows the design and site features of the proposed Subject Development. The Subject Development will be accessible by six ingress/egress points along the perimeter of the Site shown on the concept plan. A traffic signal is proposed for the intersection of Vanjumar Road and White Lake Road. 2.3 Surrounding Land Uses There are a variety of land uses that surround the Site. These uses are outlined below: 5 DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT PLAN Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis • To the North and Northwest: of the Site is White Lake Road. A service station operated by W.O. Stinson and Son Ltd. occupies the north corner of Vanjumar Road and White Lake Road opposite the Site. This service centre is surrounded by vacant rural land further to the north. Single detached homes are situated on the west side of White Lake Road as well as along Campbell Drive opposite the Site. These homes are also surrounded by vacant rural land and agricultural uses to the west and northwest. Further to the northwest is the Township of McNab/Braeside. • To the northeast: adjacent to the Site is the Antrim Truck Stop and Restaurant. This business occupies the property on the south corner of the intersection of White Lake Road and Highway 17. Further to the northeast, along Daniel Street, are Arnprior’s two largest retail shopping centres, Winners Circle (anchored by a No Frills supermarket) and Arnprior Shopping Centre (anchored by an A&P Supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store). In addition, many of Arnprior’s largest retailers, including the current Arnprior Canadian Tire store, TSC, Home Hardware and Rexall drugs, are also located along this section of Daniel Street. For the purpose of the analysis presented in this report, TER has defined this commercial area as the Daniel Street Commercial Area in order to distinguish its retail and service uses from other established retail and service uses located in the Downtown Core. 2.4 • To the East and Southeast: of the Site is the Arnprior/South Renfrew Municipal Airport. A small industrial park including a former Federal government services training campus, now vacant, occupies the lands along Baskin Drive on the east side of the Airport. Further east is Lake Madawaska and Highway 417/17. • To the West and South west of the Site is farmland and Lake Madawaska. Site and Surroundings Conclusion The Site is an appropriate location for the development of a 250,000 square foot shopping centre anchored by a department store and a relocated and expanded Canadian Tire store. The Site’s location provides exposure to traffic travelling along the Highway 417/17 Trans-Canada Highway corridor and is easily accessible to both local residents and pass-by traffic. The extension of Highway 417 to the north of Arnprior and the new highway interchange planned for White Lake Road will provide greater accessibility and exposure to the Site for traffic derived from throughout the Region and beyond. Furthermore, the Site is already designated and zoned for commercial uses and will complement the existing commercial uses established along Daniel Street to the east as well as other land uses in the surrounding area. 6 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 3 Study Area The total market influence attributable to a shopping centre or to major retailers often extends over a wide geographic area and it may be difficult to define with an absolute degree of certainty. However, TER has defined a Study Area for the purposes of making estimates of the market demand and potential impacts of the proposed Subject Development. This section of the report discusses the extent of this Study Area and the primary inputs into its delineation. 3.1 Definition of the Term “Study Area” The Study Area, as defined by TER in this report, refers to the geographic area from which the proposed Subject Development is expected to derive the majority of its sales support. In general terms, this Study Area recognizes a number of factors, including: • The access and visibility of the Site and the proposed uses; • The size and type of stores proposed; • The results of the licence plate survey conducted at Arnprior Shopping Centre (anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store) and in the parking area of the No Frills supermarket anchoring Winners Circle in Arnprior; • Previous empirical research completed by TER in the market; • Physical and political boundaries, such as the Ottawa River; • The locations of other department stores, Canadian Tire stores, and major retail concentrations in other communities that surround Arnprior; • Travel distance and driving times; and, • The professional experience of TER. In addition to the market support from residents within the delineated Study Area, it is typical that a portion of sales support for this, or any, retail project would be generated from customers living beyond the borders of the Study Area. These potential customers have been recognized in the analysis that follows as “inflow”. 3.2 Licence Plate Survey A survey of vehicle licence plates was undertaken at Arnprior Shopping Centre (anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store) and in the 7 STUDY AREA ARNPRIOR McNAB / BRAESIDE OTTAWA MISSISSIPPI MILLS GREATER MADAWASKA LANARK HIGHLANDS County Rd 9 Primary Zone Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East Subject Site Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis parking area of the No Frills supermarket anchoring Winners Circle in Arnprior over the period of January 31 - February 2, 2008. This survey is described in greater detail in Appendix B. The results of the licence plate survey provided information relating to the current distribution and the draw of major retailers in the vicinity of the Site and assisted TER in determining the Study Area for the proposed Subject Development. The recorded vehicle plate numbers were sent to the Ministry of Transportation for conversion into locational data known by Statistics Canada as Dissemination Area codes. This information was plotted on a map by TER and was incorporated into our Study Area delineation and determination of inflow levels. 3.3 The Delineated Study Area The Study Area, illustrated opposite, consists of three zones, described as follows: • Primary Zone – This zone consists of the area comprising the Town of Arnprior and a portion of the Township of McNab/Braeside southeast of Neilson Street. • Secondary Zone West – Generally, this zone consists of portions of the following surrounding local municipalities: o The Township of Greater Madawaska southeast of County Road 508 (Calabogie Road); o The Township of McNab/Braeside4 southeast of County Road 54 (McLean Drive) and Golf Club Road; o Lanark County north of the Clyde River and County Road 9 (Tatlock Road); o The Town of Mississippi Mills north of County Road 9 (Tatlock Rd), Bellamy Mills Road, Beannies Corners Road, Blakeney Road and Rural Road 46 (Panmure Road); and o The City of Ottawa west of Highway 417; and north of the Clyde River, County Road 9 and Rural Road 46 (Panmure Road). • Secondary Zone East – This zone consists of the rural portion of the City of Ottawa east of Highway 417; and north of Rural Road 46 (Panmure Road/ Thomas A. Dolan Parkway). 4 The Secondary Zone West boundary excludes the portion of the Township of McNab/Braeside southeast of Neilson Street as described in the delineation of the Primary Zone boundary. 8 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 3.4 Licence Plate Survey Results The results of the licence plate survey are summarized in the chart opposite. The chart identifies the percentage of customers that originate from the three Study Area zones, as well as outside of the Study Area. As stated above in Section 3.2, greater detail is provided in Appendix B. SUMMARY OF LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS No Frills Winners Circle Arnprior Shopping Centre Total Primary Zone Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East Total Study Area 51.6% 21.4% 12.7% 85.7% 54.9% 19.0% 8.9% 82.8% 53.3% 20.2% 10.8% 84.3% Quebec Other Total 0.2% 14.1% 14.3% 0.0% 17.2% 17.2% 0.1% 15.6% 15.7% Total Surveys Returned 100% 100% 100.0% The chart demonstrates the current distribution and the draw of major retailers in the vicinity of the Site. As shown in the chart, the Study Area accounts for 84.3% of shoppers at the various licence plate survey locations. 3.5 Study Area Conclusion This Study Area represents the geographic boundary from which the proposed Subject Development is expected to receive the majority of its sales support. 9 TABLE 1 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF PRIMARY ZONE COMPETITIVE RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE Nodes (1 Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Arnprior Shopping Centre 1 2 3 Winners Circle Sub Total Daniel Street Commercial Area (2 4 2-4 Madawaska Boulevard - Other Arnprior East of River West of River 5 6 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE 1-6 Food Oriented Retail (FOR) Supermarkets Other Food Sub-Total Food Oriented Retail (FOR) 0 0 33,200 23,100 56,300 0 0 56,300 8,400 3,500 0 0 3,500 1,700 800 14,400 8,400 3,500 33,200 23,100 59,800 1,700 800 70,700 Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) Department Stores 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 General Merchandise 15,400 21,000 42,900 0 63,900 0 0 79,300 Clothing & Accessories 16,600 0 20,700 0 20,700 0 0 37,300 9,400 0 4,100 0 4,100 7,000 0 20,500 19,400 12,500 1,700 1,700 15,900 0 0 35,300 110,100 Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores Building & Outdoor Home Supplies Miscellaneous Retailers Sub-Total Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) 6,900 40,200 0 0 40,200 59,100 3,900 37,700 0 2,900 3,500 6,400 0 3,700 47,800 105,400 73,700 72,300 5,200 151,200 66,100 7,600 330,300 Other Retail & Service Space Liquor / Beer / Wine 0 7,200 0 0 7,200 4,600 0 11,800 Food Services 15,700 13,600 5,000 7,000 25,600 19,400 5,900 66,600 Personal Services 19,500 1,200 2,900 0 4,100 600 500 24,700 Financial and Real Estate Services 28,300 7,800 4,100 0 11,900 7,800 900 48,900 105,000 16,600 6,100 1,500 24,200 24,900 10,200 164,300 Sub-Total Other Retail & Service Space Other Services 168,500 46,400 18,100 8,500 73,000 57,300 17,500 316,300 Total Occupied Space 282,300 123,600 123,600 36,800 284,000 125,100 25,900 717,300 Vacant 37,700 2,900 6,200 6,000 15,100 5,400 0 58,200 Vacancy Rate (%) 11.8% 2.3% 4.8% 14.0% 5.0% 4.1% 0.0% 7.5% 320,000 126,500 129,800 42,800 299,100 130,500 25,900 775,500 Grand Total Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Based on an inventory conducted by TER in January 2008. All measurements are rounded to the nearest 100 square feet. For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the 'Daniel Street Commercial Area' to be comprised of the following retail nodes: Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping Centre and Winners Circle. 1) 2) Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 4 Inventory of Retail Space An inventory of all commercial retail and service space in the Primary Zone was undertaken as a component of this study. This inventory was conducted by TER in January 2008. Appendix A provides a summary of all retail and service uses by commercial node in the Primary Zone. Also included in this appendix are maps showing the location of supermarkets and Canadian Tire stores in the Study Area and in the surrounding vicinity as well as the location of department store surrounding the Study Area. 4.1 Inventory of Commercial Retail Space in the Primary Zone Table 1, opposite and the map that follows, summarizes the results of the Primary Zone inventory. The existing space identified can be summarised as follows: • Overall, there is approximately 775,500 square feet of retail and service space in the Primary Zone. Food Oriented Retail (FOR) and Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) space accounts for approximately 401,000 square feet or 51.7% of space in the Primary Zone. The remainder of this space is occupied with service uses or is vacant. • The majority of commercial retail and service space in Arnprior is older and unsuitable for many new format store designs operated by chain retailers. • Several national chain retailers, such as Canadian Tire, are operating older format stores in this market which are less attractive to customers when compared to competing stores in other retail locations outside the Study Area. • There are three established commercial areas in Arnprior which comprise approximately 96.7% of all competitive space in the Primary Zone. These areas consist of the following: Commercial Area Downtown Core Daniel Street Commercial Area Madawaska Street - East of the River Other Primary Zone Total Space Square Feet 320,000 299,100 130,500 25,900 775,500 Note: TER defines the Daniel Street Commercial Area to be comprised of the following nodes, Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping Centre, and Winners Circle. • The Downtown Core consists mainly of smaller commercial units tenanted with independently owned and operated businesses. With the exception of Giant 10 PRIMARY ZONE RETAIL NODES 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Arnprior Shopping Centre Winners Circle Madawaska Boulevard, East of River Other Arnprior, West of River 1 5 6 2 3 4 Subject Site NOTE: For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the ‘Daniel Street Commercial Area’ to be comprised of the following retail nodes Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping Centre and Winners Circle. Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Tiger (11,200 square feet) and Shoppers Drug Mart (18,000 square feet) approximately 90.0% of businesses occupying space in the Downtown Core, are in units less than the size of 4,000 square feet. 4.2 • The majority of the Primary Zone’s larger format retailers and automotive oriented shopping centres are located in the Daniel Street Commercial Area, situated to the west of the Downtown Core. This area includes Arnprior Shopping Centre and Winners Circle as well as several larger format retailers such as Canadian Tire, TSC, Home Hardware and Rexall. The Subject Development would complement this commercial area and contribute to the customer draw of this area. • Madawaska Street – East of the River is comprised mainly of Highway Commercial service uses. • The vacancy rate in the Primary Zone is approximately 7.5%. It is TER’s opinion that an average vacancy level between 5.0% and 7.5% is normal and indicative of competitive market conditions. Department Store Competition in the Study Area There are no department stores in the Study Area. The closest department stores are located in Renfrew, Carleton Place or Ottawa approximately 25-45 kilometres from Arnprior. Study Area residents have to make shopping trips to these other locations to fulfil many of their comparison shopping goods needs (See Appendix A for a map of department store locations surrounding the Study Area). 4.3 Supermarket Competition in the Study Area There are two supermarkets (A&P and No Frills) operating in the Study Area, totalling approximately 56,300 square feet. Both of these stores are located in the Daniel Street Commercial Area. There are no supermarkets operating in the Arnprior Downtown Core or in the Secondary Zones of the Study Area. Appendix A provides a map showing the locations of the nearest supermarket surrounding the Study Area. TER would note that a Loeb supermarket formerly operated in the Downtown Core. This store closed as a result of a business consolidation decision made by Metro Inc. following the acquisition of A&P Canada by Metro Inc. In TER’s opinion the closure of this store is not indicative of a lack of market demand and has resulted in a shortage of supermarket space in the Study Area. The proposed department store will contain approximately 35,000 square feet of Food Oriented Retail (FOR) space. It is expected that the FOR component of this store will be competitive with supermarkets in the Study Area and beyond. 11 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 4.4 General Merchandise Competition in the Primary Zone The Arnprior Canadian Tire is one of seven general merchandise retailers operating in the Primary Zone. In total, general merchandise space comprises approximately 79,300 square feet or 10.2% of the total space in the Primary Zone. Two of these retailers (Giant Tiger and Super Lucky Dollar Store) are located in the Downtown with the remaining three retailers (Hart, A Buck or Two and a Sears general merchandise outlet) are located in Arnprior Shopping Centre. Canadian Tire operates an older format freestanding store established in Arnprior in the 1970s. Approximately half of this store’s space is dedicated to automotive repair and service. The Site provides the opportunity for Canadian Tire to operate a larger modern format store in Arnprior in close proximity to other retail uses situated in the Daniel Street Commercial Area. 4.5 Other NFOR Competition in the Primary Zone Other NFOR space comprises approximately 251,000 square feet in the Primary Zone. Approximately 43.9% or 110,100 square feet of this space is comprised of Building & Outdoor Home Supplies store space. TER estimates the proposed Other NFOR component of the Subject Development will add approximately 50,000 square feet of space in the Primary Zone. 4.6 Proposed Competition in the Primary Zone Discussions with Arnprior planning staff have indicated that in addition to the proposed Subject Development, Trinity Development Group Inc. (Trinity) has also submitted an application and site plan for a 45,600 square foot retail centre on Madawaska Boulevard (Trinity Site). Based on our review of the Trinity site plan, provided by Arnprior planning staff, TER has assumed this retail centre will be anchored by a 21,000 square foot supermarket and will contain approximately 18,500 square feet of Other NFOR space. These space assumptions have been reflected in the demand and impact analysis to follow in the year 2011. 4.7 Inventory of Retail Space Conclusions There are no department stores in the Study Area and the existing Arnprior Canadian Tire store is an older format store. Study Area residents are making shopping trips to other locations such as Renfrew, Carleton Place or Ottawa to fulfil many of their comparison shopping goods needs. The proposed Subject Development will provide an opportunity to reduce the outflow of local expenditures from Study Area residents and will introduce modern new format commercial facilities thus increasing the attractiveness of Arnprior as a competitive retail location. The arrival of a new department store and a new format Canadian Tire will provide local consumers with access to a new format of retail currently unavailable in the marketplace. 12 TABLE 2 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS STUDY AREA POPULATION LEVELS (1 2007 Primary Zone Population Average Annual Growth Average Annual Growth % Secondary Zone West Population Average Annual Growth Average Annual Growth % Secondary Zone East Population Average Annual Growth Average Annual Growth % Total Study Area 2011 2013 2015 2017 8,430 9,070 160 1.9% 9,410 170 1.9% 9,770 180 1.9% 10,140 185 1.9% 10,370 10,870 125 1.2% 11,140 135 1.2% 11,410 135 1.2% 11,690 140 1.2% 11,370 12,050 170 1.5% 12,410 180 1.5% 12,770 180 1.5% 13,130 180 1.4% 30,170 31,990 32,960 33,950 34,960 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Refer to Appendix D for detailed Study Area projections and data sources. 1) Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 5 Population Levels This section of the report presents the population forecasts for the Study Area by zone. The population forecasts incorporated into this analysis have been estimated by TER based on published forecast data provided by the Town of Arnprior, the County of Renfrew and the City of Ottawa. 5.1 Study Years The population levels for the study period 2007 to 2017 were forecast by TER and are summarized in Table 2. Appendix D provides a description of the methodology and data sources used to estimate population levels throughout the Study Area over the study period. The year 2007 is the base year for the market demand and impact analysis, with 2011 assumed to be the first full year of operation of Phase 1 of the proposed Subject Development (including the opening of the department store, the relocated and expanded Canadian Tire and the allocated ancillary space). Therefore, we have assumed the majority of space proposed for the Subject Development will be completed and in operation before the end of 2010. 5.2 Population Forecast The projections illustrated opposite were adjusted for 2006 Census undercoverage. 5.3 • The population of the Primary Zone is forecast to increase from 8,430 in 2007 to 10,140 by 2017. • The population of the Secondary Zone West is forecast to increase from 10,370 in 2007 to 11,690 by 2017. • The population of the Secondary Zone East is forecast to increase from 11,370 in 2007 to 13,130 by 2017. Population Levels Conclusion Overall, Population growth is forecast throughout the Study Area and will continue beyond the study period. The Study Area is forecast to experience an increase in population from 30,170 in 2007 to 34,960 by 2017. This forecast growth will create demand for additional retail and service space in the market. 13 TABLE 3 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS STUDY AREA NON FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (NFOR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL Current Dollars 2007 Province of Ontario - Average Per Capita NFOR Expenditures Per Capita NFOR Expenditures (1 Less: Food Oriented Retail (FOR) in WMC's Adjusted Per Capita NFOR Expenditures 2007 Dollars ($Millions) (1 $5,200 $150 $5,050 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 Primary Zone Income Index to Province (2 NFOR Expenditure Index (3 Per Capita NFOR Expenditures (4 Population (5 Total Adjusted NFOR Potential 90.3 94.5 $4,770 8,430 $40.2 $5,055 9,070 $45.8 $5,200 9,410 $48.9 $5,340 9,770 $52.2 $5,485 10,140 $55.6 Secondary Zone West Income Index to Province (2 NFOR Expenditure Index (3 Per Capita NFOR Expenditures (4 Population (5 Total Adjusted NFOR Potential 95.8 97.6 $4,930 10,370 $51.1 $5,225 10,870 $56.8 $5,375 11,140 $59.9 $5,520 11,410 $63.0 $5,670 11,690 $66.3 Secondary Zone East Income Index to Province (2 NFOR Expenditure Index (3 Per Capita NFOR Expenditures (4 Population (5 Total Adjusted NFOR Potential 139.0 122.2 $6,170 11,370 $70.2 $6,540 12,050 $78.8 $6,725 12,410 $83.5 $6,910 12,770 $88.2 $7,095 13,130 $93.2 TOTAL STUDY AREA Total Adjusted NFOR Potential ($ Millions) $161.5 $181.4 $192.3 $203.4 $215.1 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade and Wholesale Trade and other industry sources. See Appendix D for derivation of Provincial figures. 2) Based on Statistics Canada, Census of Canada 2001. 3) Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the NFOR regression equation of y=43+.57(x), where x is the income index. See Appendix D for greater detail. 4) Forecast to increase at 1.5% per annum, excluding inflation. 5) Repeated from Table 2. Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 6 Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) Expenditure Potential In this section of the report, TER has calculated the total Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) expenditure potential for the Study Area. 6.1 NFOR Expenditure Potential For the purpose of this analysis the NFOR category includes the following merchandise categories: • Department Stores • General Merchandise • Clothing & Accessories • Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics • Pharmacies & Personal Care • Building & Outdoor Home Supplies • Miscellaneous Retailers The NFOR category utilized in this study excludes the merchandise categories which are included in the Food Oriented Retail (FOR) category, namely: Supermarkets, Other Grocery Stores and Other Food Stores. In addition, services such as fast food, restaurants, entertainment and personal services are also excluded from the NFOR category. TER makes one adjustment to the NAICS definitions within the NFOR category. Statistics Canada classifies warehouse membership clubs (WMC) in the general merchandise category under the new NAICS classification. However, a significant portion of WMC sales are derived from their food merchandise. Therefore, TER has made an adjustment to remove the estimated food component of this expenditure from the NFOR category. As indicated in the upper portion of Table 3, TER estimates that on average, each Ontario resident spends approximately $5,050 at NFOR stores. Based on previous market trends, TER has forecast that these NFOR expenditures will increase at 1.5% per year, exclusive of inflation. Table 3 also includes the total NFOR expenditure volume of the Study Area residents over the study period. It indicates that Study Area residents currently spend $161.5 million at NFOR stores in the Primary Zone, elsewhere in the Study Area and beyond. This expenditure potential is forecast to increase to $215.1 million by 2017, excluding inflation, as a result of population and expenditure growth. 14 TABLE 4 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS STUDY AREA FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (FOR) EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL Current Dollars 2007 Province of Ontario - Average Per Capita FOR Expenditures (1 Supermarket (1 Convenience and Specialty Food Stores (1 Food Store Related WMC Expenditures $1,731 $250 $150 Adjusted Per Capita FOR Expenditures (including FOR WMC) $2,131 2007 Dollars ($Millions) Primary Zone Income Index to Province (2 FOR Expenditure Index (3 Per Capita FOR Expenditures (4 Population (5 Total Adjusted FOR Potential Secondary Zone West (2 Income Index to Province (3 FOR Expenditure Index Per Capita FOR Expenditures (4 Population (5 Total Adjusted FOR Potential Secondary Zone East (2 Income Index to Province (3 FOR Expenditure Index Per Capita FOR Expenditures (4 Population (5 Total Adjusted FOR Potential TOTAL STUDY AREA Total FOR Potential ($ Millions) 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 90.3 99.0 $2,110 8,430 $17.8 $2,150 9,070 $19.5 $2,175 9,410 $20.5 $2,195 9,770 $21.4 $2,215 10,140 $22.5 95.8 99.6 $2,125 10,370 $22.0 $2,170 10,870 $23.6 $2,190 11,140 $24.4 $2,210 11,410 $25.2 $2,230 11,690 $26.1 139.0 103.9 $2,215 11,370 $25.2 $2,260 12,050 $27.2 $2,280 12,410 $28.3 $2,305 12,770 $29.4 $2,325 13,130 $30.5 $65.0 $70.3 $73.2 $76.0 $79.1 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada, Retail Trade and Wholesale Trade and other industry sources. See Appendix D for derivations of Provincial figures. 2) Based on Statistics Canada, Census of Canada 2001. 3) Based on the income relationship between the Province and Study Area residents using the FOR regression equation of y= 90 +.1(x), where x is the income index. See Appendix D for greater detail. 4) 5) Forecast to increase at 0.5% per annum, excluding inflation. Repeated from Table 2. Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 7 Food Oriented Retail (FOR) Expenditure Potential In this section of the report, TER has calculated the total Food Oriented Retail (FOR) expenditure potential for the Study Area. 7.1 FOR Expenditure Potential The FOR category utilized by TER, includes the following merchandise categories: • Supermarkets & Other Grocery Stores; • Convenience Stores; • Specialty food stores such as meat markets, fish and seafood markets, fruit and vegetable markets and other specialty food stores; and, • Warehouse Membership Clubs’ (WMCs) Food Component. As stated in Section 6.1, Statistics Canada classifies warehouse membership clubs as general merchandise under the new NAICS classification. TER has made an adjustment to remove the estimated food component of this expenditure from the NFOR category and add it to the FOR category. As indicated in the upper portion of Table 4, TER estimates that, on average, each Ontario resident spends approximately $2,131 at FOR stores. Based on previous market trends, TER has forecast that these FOR expenditures will increase at 0.5% per year, exclusive of inflation. Table 4 also includes the total FOR expenditure volume of Study Area residents over the study period. It indicates that Study Area residents currently spend $65.0 million annually in FOR stores in the Primary Zone, elsewhere in the Study Area and beyond. This expenditure potential is forecast to increase to $79.1 million by 2017, excluding inflation, as a result of population and expenditure growth. 15 TABLE 5 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT STORE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS 2007 Dollars ($Millions) 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 Primary Zone NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 Department Store Share % (2 Department Store Share $ Primary Zone Share % (2 Primary Zone Share $ $40.2 16.0% $6.4 0.0% $0.0 $45.8 24.0% $11.0 70.0% $7.7 $48.9 24.0% $11.7 70.0% $8.2 $52.2 24.0% $12.5 70.0% $8.8 $55.6 24.0% $13.3 70.0% $9.3 Secondary Zone West NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 Department Store Share % (2 Department Store Share $ Primary Zone Share % (2 Primary Zone Share $ $51.1 16.0% $8.2 0.0% $0.0 $56.8 18.0% $10.2 52.5% $5.4 $59.9 18.0% $10.8 52.5% $5.7 $63.0 18.0% $11.3 52.5% $5.9 $66.3 18.0% $11.9 52.5% $6.2 Secondary Zone East NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 Department Store Share % (2 Department Store Share $ Primary Zone Share % (2 Primary Zone Share $ $70.2 15.5% $10.9 0.0% $0.0 $78.8 17.5% $13.8 40.0% $5.5 $83.5 17.5% $14.6 40.0% $5.8 $88.2 17.5% $15.4 40.0% $6.2 $93.2 17.5% $16.3 40.0% $6.5 Total Study Area Department Store Expenditures Primary Zone Department Store Expenditures $25.5 $0.0 0.0% $0.0 $35.0 $18.6 53.14% 25.0% $6.2 $37.1 $19.7 53.10% 25.0% $6.6 $39.2 $20.9 53.32% 25.0% $7.0 $41.5 $22.0 53.01% 25.0% $7.3 $0.0 $24.8 $26.3 $27.9 $29.3 n/a 90,000 $275 90,000 $290 90,000 $310 90,000 $325 Inflow % (3 Inflow $ Total Primary Zone Department Store Expenditures Proposed Department Store NFOR Component Department Store NFOR Component Sales Per Square Foot Level ( Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Repeated from Table 3. 2) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, in-home consumer telephone survey results, an examination of the inventory of competitive space and professional judgement. 3) TER estimate based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement. 4) Sales rounded to the nearest $5.00, per square foot. 1) Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 8 Department Store - NFOR Component Market Demand and Impact Analysis In this section of the report, TER has studied the opportunity for the 90,000 square foot NFOR component of the proposed department store. In order to undertake this analysis, TER has calculated a department store share of the total NFOR expenditure potential for the base year and future years. A Primary Zone share of the Study Area residents’ department store expenditures has also been estimated based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey and TER’s professional judgement. An inflow factor has then been applied to account for expenditures made by persons residing outside of the Study Area. This inflow factor has been based primarily on the results of the licence plate surveys conducted at various locations in the Primary Zone. These inputs have resulted in a sales estimate for the first full year of operation of the proposed NFOR component of the department store in 2011. This sales level is a TER estimate based on TER’s professional judgement. 8.1 Department Store Share of Total NFOR Expenditures Section 6.1 and Table 3 outlined the calculation of the total Study Area NFOR expenditure potential. Statistics Canada Retail Trade information, the results of our inhome consumer telephone survey, an examination of the inventory of competitive space and TER’s professional judgment has resulted in the estimate of the department store share indicated in our analysis presented in Table 5. The department store share of NFOR expenditures in the 2007 base year is estimated to be 16.0% in the Primary Zone, 16.0% in the Secondary Zone West, and 15.5% in the Secondary Zone East. It is estimated that in 2011 the introduction of the 90,000 square foot NFOR component of the proposed department store will increase the department store share of NFOR expenditures throughout the Study Area. The department store share is forecast to increase to 24.0% in the Primary Zone and 18.0% and 17.5% in the Secondary Zone West and East respectively. 8.2 Department Store - NFOR Component Market Demand Analysis Currently, there are no department stores in Arnprior or elsewhere in the Study Area. The majority of Study Area residents’ department store expenditures are made at department stores in communities such as Renfrew, Carleton Place, Ottawa or elsewhere. Using the results of the in-home consumer survey (provided in Appendix C), TER estimates that Study Area residents spent $25.5 million in department stores outside of the Study Area in 2007. The majority of these expenditures were made at Wal-Mart 16 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis stores located in Kanata and Renfrew. The proposed department store on the Site will provide an opportunity to recapture a portion of these Study Area residents’ expenditures currently leaving the market. TER estimates that the 90,000 square foot NFOR component of the proposed department store will recapture the following local shares of Study Area residents’ department store expenditures in 2011: • 70.0% of Primary Zone residents’ department store expenditures; • 52.5% of Secondary Zone West residents’ department store expenditures; and • 40.0% of Secondary Zone East residents’ department store expenditures Inflow of expenditures from beyond the Study Area is also recognized in this analysis. These expenditures represent visitors, students, tourists and seasonal residents who reside outside of the Study Area. Inflow is estimated at 25.0% of total sales volume at the proposed department store. The resulting average sales performance level of the proposed department store’s 90,000 square foot NFOR component is estimated to be $275 per square foot in 2011. It is TER’s opinion that this sales performance level is appropriate for the NFOR component of a department store in this market. In future years sales performance levels are forecast to increase to $290 per square foot by 2013, $310 per square foot by 2015 and to $325 per square foot by 2017. 8.3 Department Store - NFOR Component Market Impact Analysis Given there are no department stores currently located in the Study Area, there are no measurable localized impacts on Study Area department stores to evaluate. However, Section 11 of this report evaluates the impact of the proposed department store on Other NFOR retailers in the market. 8.4 Department Store - NFOR Component Market Demand and Impact Analysis Conclusions The development of the proposed department store’s 90,000 square foot NFOR component on the Site is warranted based on market demand. The nearest department store competition is located approximately 25-45 kilometres from Arnprior. The proposed department store will recapture a significant portion of expenditures currently leaving the market. It will allow Arnprior to become a more competitive retail location relative to other municipalities with department stores including Carleton Place, Ottawa and Renfrew. Furthermore, the introduction of a department store on the Site will not result in a detrimental transfer of sales from existing businesses and there will be no adverse impacts that will compromise the viability of existing retail businesses in Arnprior. 17 TABLE 6 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT STORE - FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (FOR) COMPONENT MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS 2007 Dollars ($Millions) 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 $17.8 85.0% $15.1 $19.5 86.5% $16.9 $20.5 86.5% $17.7 $21.4 86.5% $18.5 $22.5 86.5% $19.5 91.3% $13.8 95.0% $16.1 95.0% $16.8 95.0% $17.6 95.0% $18.5 $22.0 84.0% $18.5 $23.6 85.0% $20.1 $24.4 85.0% $20.7 $25.2 85.0% $21.4 $26.1 85.0% $22.2 58.8% $10.9 72.5% $14.6 72.5% $15.0 72.5% $15.5 72.5% $16.1 $25.2 80.0% $20.2 25.7% $5.2 $27.2 81.0% $22.0 50.0% $11.0 $28.3 81.0% $22.9 50.0% $11.5 $29.4 81.0% $23.8 50.0% $11.9 $30.5 81.0% $24.7 50.0% $12.4 $53.8 $29.9 0.5558 14.1% $4.9 $59.0 $41.7 0.7068 17.5% $8.8 $61.3 $43.3 0.7064 17.5% $9.2 $63.7 $45.0 0.7064 17.5% $9.5 $66.4 $47.0 0.7078 17.5% $10.0 Total Primary Zone Supermarket Expenditures $34.8 $50.5 $52.5 $54.5 $57.0 Primary Zone Supermarket Space Potential Trinity Site Supermarket Space Proposed Department Store FOR Component Total Supermarket and FOR Space Supermarket Sales Per Square Foot Level (4 56,300 Primary Zone FOR Expenditure Potential (1 Supermarket Share % (2 Supermarket Share $ (2 Primary Zone Share % Primary Zone Share $ Secondary Zone West (1 FOR Expenditure Potential (2 Supermarket Share % Supermarket Share $ (2 Primary Zone Share % Primary Zone Share $ Secondary Zone East (1 FOR Expenditure Potential (2 Supermarket Share % Supermarket Share $ (2 Primary Zone Share % Primary Zone Share $ Total Study Area Supermarket Expenditures Primary Zone Supermarket Share Inflow % Inflow $ (3 Percent Change From Current 56,300 $620 56,300 21,000 35,000 112,300 $450 -27.4% 56,300 21,000 35,000 112,300 $465 -25.0% 56,300 21,000 35,000 112,300 $485 -21.8% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Repeated from Table 4. 2) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, in-home consumer telephone survey results, an examination of the inventory of competitive space and professional judgement. 3) TER estimate based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement. 4) Sales rounded to the nearest $5.00, per square foot. 1) 56,300 21,000 35,000 112,300 $510 -17.7% Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 9 Department Store - FOR Component Market Demand and Impact Analysis Market In this section of the report, TER has studied the opportunity for the proposed 35,000 square foot Food Oriented Retail (FOR) component of the department store. In this analysis, the FOR component of the department store has been analysed separately as it is anticipated that the FOR component may compete to some extent with existing supermarkets. In addition to food items, the FOR space will also contain items typically found in supermarkets, department stores and drug stores, such as household cleaning supplies, etc. This analysis also recognizes the potential for a 21,000 square foot supermarket on the Trinity Site. 9.1 Supermarket Shares of Total FOR Expenditures Section 7.1 and Table 4 outlined the calculation of the total Study Area FOR potential. Statistics Canada Retail Trade information, the results of our in-home consumer telephone survey, an examination of the competitive retail space and TER’s professional judgment resulted in the estimate of the supermarket share of FOR expenditures indicated in our analysis presented in Table 6. The supermarket share of FOR expenditures in the 2007 base year is estimated to be 85.0% in the Primary Zone, 84.0% in the Secondary Zone West and 80.0% in the Secondary Zone East. TER has assumed that the first full year of operation of the 35,000 square foot department store FOR component will be 2011. Furthermore, TER has also recognized the potential for 21,000 square feet of new supermarket space on the Trinity Site in 2011. It is the opinion of TER that the addition of the department store FOR component and the potential supermarket on the Trinity Site is forecast to result in an increase of the supermarket shares of FOR expenditures to 86.5% in the Primary Zone and an increase to 85.0% and 81.0% in the Secondary Zone West and East respectively. 9.2 Department Store - FOR Component Market Demand Analysis Table 6 indicates the local share of Study Area residents supermarket expenditures that are made in supermarkets located in the Primary Zone. TER has based our estimate of these expenditures on the results of our in-home consumer telephone survey, an examination of the competitive retail space and TER’s professional judgment. In 2007, it is estimated that the existing inventory of supermarket space (No Frills and A&P supermarkets) in the Primary Zone captures: • 91.3% of Primary Zone residents’ supermarket expenditures; • 58.8% of Secondary Zone West residents’ supermarket expenditures; and • 25.7% of Secondary Zone East residents’ supermarket expenditures. 18 TABLE 7 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT STORE - FOOD ORIENTED RETAIL (FOR) COMPONENT DIRECTIONAL Total Primary Zone Supermarket Space 2007 Dollars ($Millions) 2007 Supermarket Sales From Study Area Residents (1 Primary Zone Share of Supermarket Expenditures Primary Zone Market Share % (1 Plus Inflow Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (3 (1 A&P - Arnprior Shopping Centre No Frills Winners Circle Trinity Site Potential Supermarket Subject Development Proposed Department Store FOR Component (4 $53.8 $29.9 55.6% 14.1% $34.8 56,300 $620 $16.2 30.1% 15.0% $19.1 33,200 $575 $13.7 25.5% 12.5% $15.7 23,100 $680 $59.0 $41.7 70.6% 17.5% $50.5 112,300 $450 -27.4% $11.8 20.0% 15.0% $13.9 33,200 $420 -27.0% $10.1 17.1% 12.5% $11.5 23,100 $500 -26.5% $8.0 13.5% 15.0% $9.4 21,000 $450 n/a $11.8 20.0% 25.0% $15.7 35,000 $450 n/a $61.3 $43.3 70.6% 17.5% $52.5 112,300 $465 -25.0% $12.3 20.0% 15.0% $14.5 33,200 $435 -24.3% $10.5 17.1% 12.5% $12.0 23,100 $520 -23.5% $8.3 13.5% 15.0% $9.8 21,000 $465 n/a $12.3 20.0% 25.0% $16.4 35,000 $470 n/a $63.7 $45.0 70.6% 17.5% $54.5 112,300 $485 -21.8% $12.7 20.0% 15.0% $14.9 33,200 $450 -21.7% $10.9 17.1% 12.5% $12.5 23,100 $540 -20.6% $8.6 13.5% 15.0% $10.1 21,000 $480 n/a $12.7 20.0% 25.0% $16.9 35,000 $485 n/a $66.4 $47.0 70.6% 17.5% $57.0 112,300 $510 -17.7% $13.3 20.0% 15.0% $15.6 33,200 $470 -18.3% $11.4 17.1% 12.5% $13.0 23,100 $565 -16.9% $9.0 13.5% 15.0% $10.6 21,000 $505 n/a $13.3 20.0% 25.0% $17.7 35,000 $505 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2011 Supermarket Sales From Study Area Residents (1 Primary Zone Share of Supermarket Expenditures Primary Zone Market Share % (1 Plus Inflow Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (3,4 Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. 2013 Supermarket Sales From Study Area Residents (1 Primary Zone Share of Supermarket Expenditures Primary Zone Market Share % (1 Plus Inflow Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (3 Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. 2015 (1 Supermarket Sales From Study Area Residents Primary Zone Share of Supermarket Expenditures Primary Zone Market Share % (1 Plus Inflow Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (3 Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. 2017 (1 Supermarket Sales From Study Area Residents Primary Zone Share of Supermarket Expenditures Primary Zone Market Share % (1 (2 Plus Inflow Estimate TOTAL SALES Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (3 Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. (1 (1 (1 (1 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Total Study Area expenditure calculated in Table 7. Distribution of sales based on in-home consumer telephone survey results and TER's professional judgement. 1) 2) 3) 4) TER estimate based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Proposed Department Store FOR component size and proposed supermarket entry sales per square foot level based on TER estimate. Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis The 2007 inflow for the existing supermarkets in the Primary Zone is estimated at an average level of 14.1%. The resulting average sales performance level of the existing 56,300 square feet of supermarket space in the Primary Zone is estimated to be $620 per square foot. This level is considered by TER to be above industry averages. The introduction of the 35,000 square foot department store FOR component and the potential 21,000 square foot supermarket on the Trinity Site are forecast to increase the share of supermarket expenditures made in the Primary Zone. These increases are estimated at the following rates in 2011 and are forecast to remain constant over the study period: • 95.0% of Primary Zone residents’ supermarket expenditures; • 72.5% of Secondary Zone West residents’ supermarket expenditures; and • 50.0% of Secondary Zone East residents’ supermarket expenditures. Inflow is also expected to increase to 17.5% of average supermarket sales volumes in 2011. Total supermarket sales volumes in 2011 are forecast at $50.5 million resulting in an average supermarket sales level of $450 per square foot. This level represents a 26.8% decrease in the average supermarket sales per square foot performance level from the 2007 base year. However, TER considers these average sales performance levels to be within typical industry levels for a market such as Arnprior. Furthermore, sales performance levels are forecast to increase from this level over the study period. 9.3 Department Store - FOR Component Market Impact Analysis Table 7 examines the anticipated impact of the addition of the 35,000 square foot department store FOR component and the potential 21,000 square foot supermarket at the Trinity Site on the existing Primary Zone supermarkets. The following observations are made in terms of directional impact: • Overall, it is TER’s opinion that the 2007 base year supermarket performance levels in the Primary Zone are above industry averages. This is largely as a result of the closure of the Loeb supermarket formerly located in the Downtown Core. In TER’s opinion this store closed as a result of a business consolidation decision made by Metro Inc. (operator of the A&P supermarket in Arnprior Shopping Centre) following the acquisition of A&P Canada and Metro Inc. and not as a result of local market conditions. In TER’s opinion there has been a shortage of supermarket space in the Study Area since the closure of the Loeb supermarket resulting in the elevated sales performance of No Frills and A&P supermarkets. • Sales impacts are forecast as a result of the combination of the opening of the department store FOR component and the assumed addition of supermarket 19 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis space at the Trinity Site. These sales impacts are estimated between 26.5% and 27.0% for the No Frills and A&P supermarkets respectively. • Overall, it is TER’s opinion that supermarket performance levels in the Primary Zone will remain within industry averages and any resulting sales transfer from existing supermarkets to the proposed department store FOR component will not adversely impact their continued operation in Arnprior. It is the opinion of TER that there is no risk of closure of any supermarket in the Study Area due to the introduction of the proposed department store FOR space or the assumed new supermarket on the Trinity Site. 9.4 Department Store - FOR Component Market Demand and Impact Analysis Conclusion There is sufficient market demand to warrant the development of the 35,000 square foot department store FOR component, in conjunction with the potential supermarket space anticipated on the Trinity Site. It is our professional opinion that the introduction of the department store FOR component will not adversely impact the continued viability of either the No Frills or the A&P supermarkets as a result of detrimental sales transfers from these businesses. 20 TABLE 8 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS GENERAL MERCHANDISE MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS 2007 Dollars ($Millions) 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 Primary Zone NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 General Merchandise Share % (2 General Merchandise Share $ Primary Zone Share % (2 Primary Zone Share $ $40.2 18.0% $7.2 82.0% $5.9 $45.8 19.0% $8.7 92.5% $8.0 $48.9 19.0% $9.3 92.5% $8.6 $52.2 19.0% $9.9 92.5% $9.1 $55.6 19.0% $10.6 92.5% $9.8 Secondary Zone West NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 General Merchandise Share % (2 General Merchandise Share $ Primary Zone Share % (2 Primary Zone Share $ $51.1 17.5% $8.9 58.9% $5.2 $56.8 18.0% $10.2 65.0% $6.6 $59.9 18.0% $10.8 65.0% $7.0 $63.0 18.0% $11.3 65.0% $7.3 $66.3 18.0% $11.9 65.0% $7.7 Secondary Zone East NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 General Merchandise Share % (2 General Merchandise Share $ Primary Zone Share % (2 Primary Zone Share $ $70.2 14.5% $10.2 16.1% $1.6 $78.8 15.0% $11.8 22.5% $2.7 $83.5 15.0% $12.5 22.5% $2.8 $88.2 15.0% $13.2 22.5% $3.0 $93.2 15.0% $14.0 22.5% $3.2 Inflow % (3 Inflow $ $26.3 $12.7 48.3% 18.5% $2.9 $30.7 $17.3 56.4% 21.0% $4.6 $32.6 $18.4 56.4% 21.0% $4.9 $34.4 $19.4 56.4% 21.0% $5.2 $36.5 $20.7 56.7% 21.0% $5.5 Total Primary Zone General Merchandise Expenditures $15.6 $21.9 $23.3 $24.6 $26.2 Total Study Area General Merchandise Expenditures Primary Zone General Merchandise Expenditures Existing General Merchandise Space Subject Development Proposed Canadian Tire Total General Merchandise Space Average General Merchandise Sales Per Square Foot Le Percent Change From Current 79,300 n/a 79,300 $195 58,300 50,000 108,300 $200 2.6% 58,300 50,000 108,300 $215 10.3% 58,300 50,000 108,300 $225 15.4% 58,300 50,000 108,300 $240 23.1% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Repeated from Table 3. 2) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, in-home consumer telephone survey results, an examination of the inventory of competitive space and professional judgement. 3) TER estimate based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement. 4) Sales rounded to the nearest $5.00 per square foot. 1) Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 10 General Merchandise Demand and Impact Analysis In addition to the proposed department store analysed in Sections 8 and 9, the Developer is also proposing to relocate the existing 21,000 square foot Canadian Tire store located on Daniel Street to an expanded new format store on the Site. The purpose of this section of the report is to analyse the market demand and potential impacts of the introduction of a new format Canadian Tire store on the Site. 10.1 General Merchandise Share of Total NFOR Expenditures Canadian Tire retail sales are a component of the general merchandise retail expenditure category. Section 6.1 and Table 3 outlined the calculation of the total Study Area NFOR potential. Statistics Canada Retail Trade information, the results of our in-home consumer telephone survey, an examination of the inventory of competitive space and TER’s professional judgment resulted in the estimate of the general merchandise share of total NFOR potential, as illustrated in Table 8. The general merchandise share of NFOR expenditures in the 2007 base year is estimated to be 18.0% in the Primary Zone, 17.5% in the Secondary Zone West and 14.5% in Secondary Zone East. The Arnprior Canadian Tire is a freestanding older format store. Approximately half of this store’s space is dedicated to automotive repair and service. It is the opinion of TER that the expansion and relocation of the Canadian Tire into a new format store in this market will result in an increase in the general merchandise share of Study Area NFOR expenditures in 2011. As a result TER has forecast that the general merchandise shares of NFOR expenditures will increase to 19.0% in the Primary Zone and 18.0% and 15.0% in the Secondary Zone West and East respectively. 10.2 General Merchandise Market Demand Analysis Table 8 indicates the local share of Study Area residents general merchandise expenditures that are made in general merchandise stores located in the Primary Zone. TER has based its estimate of these expenditures on the results of our in-home consumer telephone survey, an examination of the competitive retail space and TER’s professional judgment. In the 2007 base year, it is calculated that existing Primary Zone general merchandise retailers, including Canadian Tire, capture: • 82.0% of Primary Zone residents’ general merchandise expenditures; • 58.9% of Secondary Zone West residents’ general merchandise expenditures; and • 16.1% of Secondary Zone East residents’ general merchandise expenditures. As discussed in Section 4, previously, Arnprior is less competitive as a retail location in comparison to other communities that surround the Study Area. This is largely 21 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis attributed to these other communities having retailers with more modern format stores and expanded merchandise lines. At present, Primary Zone general merchandise retailers have a market share of less than half of the non-department store general merchandise expenditure potential derived from Study Area residents. In addition these retailers attract a small portion of their sales from beyond the Primary Zone. Currently, inflow of expenditures from non-Study Area residents is estimated at 18.5% of total sales volumes. The TER analysis indicates that the existing 79,300 square feet of general merchandise space is estimated to be performing at $195 per square foot. This sales performance level is considered by TER to be somewhat lower than normal for typical general merchandise retailers. However, in TER’s opinion these lower than normal sales performance levels can be attributed to the following factors: • The largest general merchandise store in the Primary Zone is the Hart general merchandise store located in Arnprior Shopping Centre. Average sales performance levels for this retailer are approximately $85 per square foot5. The Hart store in Arnprior is approximately 29,000 square feet and accounts for approximately 37.5% of general merchandise space in the Primary Zone. As a result, the sales volumes derived from this store significantly influence the average base year sales performance levels for the general merchandise category. • The existing Canadian Tire store in Arnprior is an older format store. TER’s consumer research indicates that a significant portion of Study Area residents are shopping at other Canadian Tire locations elsewhere. In the opinion of TER, the combination of these factors has resulted in lower than normal sales performance levels for general merchandise retailers in the Primary Zone. It is estimated that the relocation and expansion of the Arnprior Canadian Tire to a 50,000 square foot new format Canadian Tire store on the Site in 2011 will result in the recapture of Study Area residents’ expenditures. As a result local shares are forecast to increase to: • 92.5% of Primary Zone residents’ general merchandise expenditures; • 65.0% of Secondary Zone West residents’ general merchandise expenditures; and • 22.5% of Secondary Zone East residents’ general merchandise expenditures. Inflow is also expected to increase to 21.0%. Total general merchandise sales volumes in 2011 are forecast at $21.9 million, an increase of $6.3 million since 2007. The average sales performance level is forecast to increase to $200 per square foot as a result of market growth, recapture and the relocation and expansion of the Canadian Tire. In future years, TER estimates that average sales performance levels 5 Based on TER’s review of financial information provided in Hart Stores’ 2008 Annual Report. 22 TABLE 9 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS GENERAL MERCHANDISE DIRECTIONAL MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS Total Primary Zone General Merchandise Space 2007 Dollars ($Millions) 2007 (1 Study Area General Merchandise Expenditure Potential Study Area Market Share (1 Study Area Share of General Merchandise Expenditures (1, 2 (3 Plus Inflow Estimate TOTAL SALES (2 Square Footage (4 Sales per sq. ft. Downtown Core Arnprior Arnprior Canadian Tire Shopping Centre Subject Development Proposed (5 Canadian Tire $26.3 48.5% $12.7 18.5% $15.6 79,300 $195 12.7% $3.3 17.0% $4.0 15,400 $260 Study Area General Merchandise Expenditure Potential Study Area Market Share (1 Study Area Share of General Merchandise Expenditures (1, 2 Plus Inflow Estimate (3 TOTAL SALES (2 Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (4, 5 Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. $30.7 56.4% $17.3 21.5% $21.9 108,300 $200 2.6% 10.4% $3.2 17.0% $3.9 15,400 $255 -1.9% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 15.5% $4.7 15.0% $5.5 42,900 $130 -7.1% 30.5% $9.4 25.0% $12.5 50,000 $250 n/a 2013 Study Area General Merchandise Expenditure Potential (1 Study Area Market Share (1 Study Area Share of General Merchandise Expenditures (1, 2 Plus Inflow Estimate (3 TOTAL SALES (2 Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (4 Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. $32.6 56.4% $18.4 21.0% $23.3 108,300 $215 10.3% 10.4% $3.4 17.0% $4.1 15,400 $265 1.9% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 15.5% $5.1 15.0% $6.0 42,900 $140 0.0% 30.5% $9.9 25.0% $13.2 50,000 $265 n/a 2015 Study Area General Merchandise Expenditure Potential (1 Study Area Market Share (1 (1, 2 Study Area Share of General Merchandise Expenditures (3 Plus Inflow Estimate TOTAL SALES (2 Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (4 Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. $34.4 56.4% $19.4 21.0% $24.5 108,300 $225 15.4% 10.4% $3.6 17.0% $4.3 15,400 $280 7.7% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 15.5% $5.3 15.0% $6.2 42,900 $145 3.6% 30.5% $10.5 25.0% $14.0 50,000 $280 n/a 2017 Study Area General Merchandise Expenditure Potential (1 (1 Study Area Market Share (1, 2 Study Area Share of General Merchandise Expenditures (3 Plus Inflow Estimate (2 TOTAL SALES Square Footage (4 Sales per sq. ft. Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. $36.5 56.4% $20.6 21.0% $26.1 108,300 $240 23.1% 10.4% $3.8 17.0% $4.6 15,400 $300 15.4% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 15.5% $5.7 15.0% $6.7 42,900 $155 10.7% 30.5% $11.1 25.0% $14.8 50,000 $295 n/a 16.4% $4.3 22.5% $5.6 21,000 $265 19.4% $5.1 15.0% $6.0 42,900 $140 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2011 (1 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Total Study Area expenditure calculated in Table 8. Distribution of sales based on in-home consumer telephone survey results and TER's professional judgement. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) Some figures shown may not match the corresponding entry in Table 8 due to rounding. Inflow estimates based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. Proposed size of Canadian Tire space provided by the Developer. Entry sales per square foot level based on TER estimate. Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis will continue to increase to $215 per square foot by 2013, $225 per square foot by 2015 and $240 per square foot by 2017. 10.3 General Merchandise Market Impact Analysis Table 9 examines the anticipated impact of the relocation and expansion of the Canadian Tire on the existing general merchandise stores in the Primary Zone. The following observations are made in terms of directional impact: • The majority of the sales volume generated by the new Canadian Tire will result from the recapture of Canadian Tire expenditures previously made at other competing new format Canadian Tire’s locations outside the Study Area. • This recapture of local expenditures will contribute to retaining local residents’ general merchandise expenditures in Arnprior and will strengthen the attraction of Arnprior as a retail destination thereby creating the opportunity for positive spinoffs for other businesses in the market. • The relocation and expansion of the Canadian Tire on the Site will result in some minor sales transfers from other general merchandise retailers in the Primary Zone in the short term. However sales volumes are forecast to return to base year levels by 2013 and exceed these levels over the remainder of the study period as a result of expenditure growth in the market. • The relocation of the Canadian Tore to the Site, approximately 1.4 kilometres to the west of its current location, will not negatively influence the continued viability of other businesses situated in the Daniel Street Commercial Area. It is the opinion of TER that there is no risk of closure of any general merchandise retailer in the Study Area due to relocation and expansion of the Canadian Tire on the Site. 10.4 General Merchandise Demand and Impact Analysis Conclusions There is sufficient market demand to warrant the relocation and expansion of the Arnprior Canadian Tire store to a 50,000 square foot new format store on the Site in 2011. The proposed new store will contribute to modernizing retail competition in Arnprior and will strengthen the attraction of Arnprior as a retail destination. In addition, the new format store will contribute to retaining local residents’ general merchandise expenditures in Arnprior. It is TER’s professional opinion, that the relocation of this store, approximately 1.4 kilometres to the west of its current location, will not negatively influence the continued viability of other businesses situated in the Daniel Street Commercial Area. 23 TABLE 10 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS OTHER NFOR MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS 2007 Dollars ($Millions) Primary Zone (1 NFOR Expenditure Potential (2 Other NFOR Share % Other NFOR Share $ (2 Primary Zone Share % Primary Zone Share $ 2007 2011 2013 2015 2017 $40.2 $45.8 $48.9 $52.2 $55.6 66.0% $26.5 72.0% $19.1 57.0% $26.1 77.5% $20.2 57.0% $27.9 82.5% $23.0 57.0% $29.8 82.5% $24.6 57.0% $31.7 82.5% $26.2 5.5% 5.0% 0.0% Secondary Zone West (1 NFOR Expenditure Potential (2 Other NFOR Share % Other NFOR Share $ (2 Primary Zone Share % Primary Zone Share $ $51.1 66.5% $34.0 37.9% $12.9 $56.8 64.0% $36.4 42.0% $15.3 4.1% $59.9 64.0% $38.3 45.0% $17.2 3.0% $63.0 64.0% $40.3 45.0% $18.1 0.0% $66.3 64.0% $42.4 45.0% $19.1 Secondary Zone East (1 NFOR Expenditure Potential (2 Other NFOR Share % Other NFOR Share $ (2 Primary Zone Share % Primary Zone Share $ $70.2 70.0% $49.1 9.2% $4.6 $83.5 67.5% $56.4 17.5% $9.9 3.5% $122.6 $50.1 40.9% 17.5% $10.6 $88.2 67.5% $59.5 17.5% $10.4 0.0% $129.6 $53.1 41.0% 17.5% $11.3 $93.2 67.5% $62.9 17.5% $11.0 $109.6 $36.6 33.4% 15.5% $6.7 $78.8 67.5% $53.2 14.0% $7.4 4.8% $115.7 $42.9 37.1% 16.5% $8.5 $137.0 $56.3 41.1% 17.5% $11.9 $43.3 $51.4 $60.7 $64.4 $68.2 251,000 251,000 251,000 251,000 251,000 25,000 18,500 50,000 21,000 18,500 50,000 21,000 18,500 50,000 21,000 18,500 294,500 $175 0.0% 340,500 $180 2.9% 340,500 $190 8.6% 340,500 $200 14.3% Total Study Area Other NFOR Expenditures Primary Zone Other NFOR Expenditures Inflow % Inflow $ (3 Total Primary Zone Other NFOR Expenditures Primary Zone Other NFOR Space Proposed Space Subject Development (4 (5 Retenanted Canadian Tire Space (6 Trinity Site Total Primary Zone Other NFOR Space (7 NFOR Space Sales Per Square Foot Level Percent Change From Current 251,000 $175 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 43,500 46,000 1) Repeated from Table 3. 0.17 42.50% 8.50% 2) TER estimate based on Statistics Canada Retail Trade data, in-home consumer telephone survey results, an examination of the inventory of competitive space and professional judgement. 3) Inflow estimates based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement. 4) TER has assumed the development of the ancillary retail component of the Subject Development will be phased over the study years 2011 and 2013. 5) TER has assumed the Trinity Site will contain 18,500 square feet of Other NFOR space developed in 2011. This estimate is based on TER's review of the Trinity site plan submitted to Arnprior. 6) TER has assumed the Arnprior Canadian Tire store will be retenanted with Other NFOR uses following the opening of the new expanded and relocated store on the Subject Site. 7) Sales rounded to the nearest $5.00 per square foot. Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 11 Other NFOR Market Demand and Impact Analysis In addition to the two proposed anchor tenants, the Subject Development will also include approximately 50,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR6 retail service space. This Other NFOR space is expected to be phased over time. The purpose of this section of the report is to analyse the market demand and potential impacts of the proposed 50,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR space on the Site over two phases in 2011 and 2013. In addition, this analysis also recognizes the potential opportunity for the development of 18,500 square feet of additional proposed Other NFOR space on the Trinity Site in 2011 and the retenanting of the 21,000 square feet of the vacated Canadian Tire in 2013 that will result from the relocation of this store to the Site. For the purpose of this analysis, TER has defined “Other NFOR” space to include the following retail categories: • Clothing & Accessories • • Pharmacies & Personal Care • Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics Miscellaneous Retailers • Building & Outdoor Home Supplies TER has excluded the department store and the general merchandise category expenditures from this definition of Other NFOR. 11.1 Other NFOR Share of Total NFOR Expenditures Section 6.1 and Table 3 outlined the calculation of the total Study Area NFOR potential. Statistics Canada Retail Trade information, the results of our in-home consumer telephone survey, an examination of the inventory of competitive space and TER’s professional judgment resulted in the estimate of the Other NFOR share of NFOR expenditures in the 2007 base year as illustrated in Table 10. The Other NFOR share of NFOR expenditures in the 2007 base year is estimated to be 66.0% in the Primary Zone, 66.5% in the Secondary Zone West and 70.0% in the Secondary Zone East. The analysis in Table 10 forecasts that the Other NFOR share of NFOR expenditures will decline in 2011 as a result of the introduction of the proposed department store and relocated and expanded Canadian Tire store on the Site. The introduction of these stores in Arnprior will decrease Other NFOR share of NFOR expenditures to 57.0% in the Primary Zone and 64.0% and 67.5% in the Secondary Zone West and East respectively. 6 For the purpose of this analysis “Other NFOR” is defined as total NFOR, less department stores and general merchandise expenditures. 24 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 11.2 Other NFOR Market Demand Analysis Table 10 indicates the local share of Study Area residents Other NFOR expenditures that are made in the Primary Zone. TER has based its estimate of these expenditures on the results of our in-home consumer telephone survey, an examination of the competitive retail space and TER’s professional judgment. In the 2007 base year, it is calculated that existing Primary Zone Other NFOR retailers capture: • 72.0% of Primary Zone East residents’ Other NFOR expenditures; • 37.9% of Secondary Zone West residents’ Other NFOR expenditures; and • 9.2% of Secondary Zone East residents’ Other NFOR expenditures. In a similar fashion to the general merchandise analysis discussed previously in Section 10.2, Primary Zone Other NFOR retailers’ market share of Study Area residents’ Other NFOR expenditure potential is estimated at approximately one third of available expenditures. In addition these retailers attract a very small portion of their sales from beyond the Primary Zone. This demonstrates the significant outflow of expenditures from this market. The 2007 inflow is estimated at 15.5%. The average sales level of the existing 251,000 square feet of Other NFOR space in the Primary Zone is estimated to be $175 per square foot. As was the case with general merchandise performance levels discussed previously, TER considers this sales performance level for Other NFOR retailers to be somewhat lower than normal. However given the limited presence of modern new format retailers operating in this market relative to other competing retail locations surrounding Arnprior this sales performance level is not unexpected. It is estimated that the introduction of 50,000 square feet of Other NFOR space anticipated over two development phases on the Site as well as the addition of 18,500 square feet of Other NFOR space anticipated on the Trinity Site and the retenanting of the vacated Canadian Tire store will result in the recapture of a portion of Study Area expenditure potential. TER forecasts this recapture will increase the local share according to the following ranges over the period 2011 - 2013: • 77.5% - 82.5% of Primary Zone East residents’ Other NFOR expenditures; • 42.0% - 45.0% of Secondary Zone West residents’ Other NFOR expenditures; and • 14.0% - 17.5% of Secondary Zone East residents’ Other NFOR expenditures Increases in inflow are expected to range from 16.5% in 2011 to 17.5% by 2013. Total Other NFOR sales volumes over the period 2011 to 2017 are forecast increase from $51.4 million to $68.2 million. These estimates result in an average Primary Zone Other NFOR sales level ranging from $175 – $200 per square foot over the same period, an increase over 2007 base year levels. 25 TABLE 11 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT OTHER NFOR DIRECTIONAL MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS 2007 Dollars ($Millions) 2007 Study Area Other NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 Study Area Market Share (1 Study Area Share of Other NFOR Expenditures (1, 2 Plus Inflow Estimate (3 TOTAL SALES (2 Square Footage Sales per sq. ft. (4 Total Primary Zone Other NFOR Space $109.6 33.2% $36.5 15.5% $43.3 251,000 $175 Downtown Core 12.0% $13.2 12.5% $15.1 90,000 $170 $191 Subject Trinity Site Development Daniel Street Other Madawaska Commercial Arnprior West Boulevard - Other NFOR Other NFOR (5 of River East of River Space (6 Space (6 Area 12.9% $14.2 19.0% $17.5 87,300 $200 0.7% $0.8 10.0% $0.9 7,600 $120 $132 7.6% $8.3 15.0% $9.8 66,100 $150 $166 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.1% $3.6 15.0% $4.2 18,500 $225 n/a 3.6% $4.2 25.0% $5.6 25,000 $225 n/a 2011 Opening of Trinity Site's 18,500 square feet and the Subject Development's Phase 1 - 25,000 square feet of Other NFOR Space Study Area Other NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 Study Area Market Share (1 Study Area Share of Other NFOR Expenditures (1, 2 Plus Inflow Estimate (3 TOTAL SALES (2 Square Footage (4, 6 Sales per sq. ft. Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. $115.7 37.1% $43.0 16.5% $51.5 294,500 $175 0.0% 10.7% $12.4 12.5% $14.2 90,000 $160 -5.9% 11.8% $13.7 19.0% $16.8 87,300 $190 -5.0% 0.7% $0.8 10.0% $0.9 7,600 $120 0.0% 7.2% $8.3 15.0% $9.8 66,100 $150 0.0% 2013 - Retenanting of Arnprior Canadian Tire Space and the opening of the Subject Development's Phase 2 - 25,000 square feet of Other NFOR Space Study Area Other NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 $122.6 Study Area Market Share (1 40.8% 9.9% 13.6% 0.7% 6.8% 2.9% 6.9% Study Area Share of Other NFOR Expenditures (1, 2 $50.1 $12.1 $16.7 $0.9 $8.3 $3.6 $8.5 Plus Inflow Estimate (3 17.5% 12.5% 19.0% 10.0% 15.0% 15.0% 25.0% TOTAL SALES (2 $60.7 $13.8 $20.6 $1.0 $9.8 $4.2 $11.3 Square Footage 340,500 90,000 108,300 7,600 66,100 18,500 50,000 (4, 6 $180 $155 $190 $130 $150 $225 $225 Sales per sq. ft. -8.8% -5.0% 8.3% 0.0% 2.9% n/a n/a Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. 2015 Study Area Other NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 Study Area Market Share (1 Study Area Share of Other NFOR Expenditures (1, 2 Plus Inflow Estimate (3 TOTAL SALES (2 Square Footage (4 Sales per sq. ft. Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. $129.6 40.8% $52.8 17.5% $64.1 340,500 $190 8.6% 9.9% $12.8 12.5% $14.6 90,000 $160 -5.9% 13.6% $17.6 19.0% $21.7 108,300 $200 0.0% 0.7% $0.9 10.0% $1.0 7,600 $130 8.3% 6.8% $8.8 15.0% $10.4 66,100 $155 3.3% 2.9% $3.8 15.0% $4.5 18,500 $245 n/a 6.9% $8.9 25.0% $11.9 50,000 $240 n/a 2017 Study Area Other NFOR Expenditure Potential (1 Study Area Market Share (1 Study Area Share of Other NFOR Expenditures (1, 2 Plus Inflow Estimate (3 TOTAL SALES (2 Square Footage (4 Sales per sq. ft. Percent Change Sales per sq. ft. $137.0 40.8% $56.1 17.5% $68.0 340,500 $200 14.3% 9.9% $13.6 12.5% $15.6 90,000 $175 2.9% 13.6% $18.7 19.0% $23.0 108,300 $210 5.0% 0.7% $1.0 10.0% $1.1 7,600 $145 20.8% 6.8% $9.3 15.0% $10.9 66,100 $165 10.0% 2.9% $4.0 15.0% $4.7 18,500 $255 n/a 6.9% $9.5 25.0% $12.7 50,000 $255 n/a Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Total Study Area expenditure calculated in Table 10. Distribution of sales based on in-home consumer telephone survey results and TER's professional judgement. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Some figures shown may not match the corresponding entry in Table 10 due to rounding. Inflow estimates based on the results of licence plate surveys and TER's professional judgement. Rounded to the nearest $5.00. For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the 'Daniel Street Commercial Area' to be comprised of the following retail nodes: Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping Centre and Winners Circle. Proposed size of Other NFOR space and entry sales per square foot level based on TER estimate. Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis 11.3 Other NFOR Market Impact Analysis Table 11, opposite, examined the impact of the introduction of 50,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR space on the Site, as well as the addition of Other NFOR space identified for potential development in the Primary Zone. The Other NFOR space proposed at the Site will increase the amount of commercial retail and service space in the market by approximately 6.4% and will contribute to modernizing the supply of commercial space in the Arnprior market. The following observations are made in terms of directional impact: • In 2007, Primary Zone Other NFOR retailers currently have a 33.2% market share of Other NFOR expenditure potential derived from the Study Area. In TER’s opinion, a market share this low is indicative of a shortage of competitive Other NFOR retail space in the market. • The introduction of the new Other NFOR space in the Primary Zone will result in some sales transfers from existing Other NFOR retailers in the short term. These sales impacts will be distributed throughout the Primary Zone. Sales volumes are forecast to return or exceed base year levels over the study period. • The majority of sales support for the new Other NFOR space proposed on the Site will be derived from the recapture of expenditures currently leaving the market. It is the opinion of TER that there is no risk of closure of any Other NFOR retailers in the Study Area due to the addition of Other NFOR space on the Site. 11.4 Other NFOR Market Demand and Impact Analysis Conclusion There is sufficient demand over the study period to warrant the phased development of 50,000 square feet of ancillary Other NFOR space on the Site, in addition to Other NFOR space identified for potential development in the Primary Zone. It is TER’s professional opinion that the proposed new Other NFOR space on the Site will recapture a portion of Study Area residents’ expenditures currently leaving the market and will contribute to modernizing the inventory of commercial space in Arnprior. Furthermore, the addition of Other NFOR uses on the Site will not adversely impact the viability of other businesses situated in the Daniel Street Commercial Area, Downtown Core or elsewhere in the Primary Zone. 26 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Appendix A – Inventory of Competitive Retail Space An inventory of all commercial retail and service space was undertaken by TER in the Primary Zone of the Study Area in January 2008. Table A-1 and the accompanying map illustrating the location commercial nodes in the Primary Zone, provides a summary of all retail and service space in the Primary Zone. This appendix also contains maps illustrating the location of department stores, supermarkets and Canadian Tire stores in the Study Area and surrounding vicinity. A-1 PRIMARY ZONE RETAIL NODES 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Arnprior Shopping Centre Winners Circle Madawaska Boulevard, East of River Other Arnprior, West of River 1 5 6 2 3 4 Subject Site NOTE: For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the ‘Daniel Street Commercial Area’ to be comprised of the following retail nodes Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping Centre and Winners Circle. TABLE A-1 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF PRIMARY ZONE COMPETITIVE RETAIL AND SERVICE SPACE Nodes (1 Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Arnprior Shopping Centre 1 2 3 Winners Circle Sub Total Daniel Street Commercial Area (2 4 2-4 Madawaska Boulevard - Other Arnprior East of River West of River 5 6 TOTAL PRIMARY ZONE 1-6 Food Oriented Retail (FOR) Supermarkets Other Food Sub-Total Food Oriented Retail (FOR) 0 0 33,200 23,100 56,300 0 0 56,300 8,400 3,500 0 0 3,500 1,700 800 14,400 8,400 3,500 33,200 23,100 59,800 1,700 800 70,700 Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) Department Stores 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 General Merchandise 15,400 21,000 42,900 0 63,900 0 0 79,300 Clothing & Accessories 16,600 0 20,700 0 20,700 0 0 37,300 9,400 0 4,100 0 4,100 7,000 0 20,500 19,400 12,500 1,700 1,700 15,900 0 0 35,300 110,100 Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores Building & Outdoor Home Supplies Miscellaneous Retailers Sub-Total Non Food Oriented Retail (NFOR) 6,900 40,200 0 0 40,200 59,100 3,900 37,700 0 2,900 3,500 6,400 0 3,700 47,800 105,400 73,700 72,300 5,200 151,200 66,100 7,600 330,300 Other Retail & Service Space Liquor / Beer / Wine 0 7,200 0 0 7,200 4,600 0 11,800 Food Services 15,700 13,600 5,000 7,000 25,600 19,400 5,900 66,600 Personal Services 19,500 1,200 2,900 0 4,100 600 500 24,700 Financial and Real Estate Services 28,300 7,800 4,100 0 11,900 7,800 900 48,900 105,000 16,600 6,100 1,500 24,200 24,900 10,200 164,300 Sub-Total Other Retail & Service Space Other Services 168,500 46,400 18,100 8,500 73,000 57,300 17,500 316,300 Total Occupied Space 282,300 123,600 123,600 36,800 284,000 125,100 25,900 717,300 Vacant 37,700 2,900 6,200 6,000 15,100 5,400 0 58,200 Vacancy Rate (%) 11.8% 2.3% 4.8% 14.0% 5.0% 4.1% 0.0% 7.5% 320,000 126,500 129,800 42,800 299,100 130,500 25,900 775,500 Grand Total Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Based on an inventory conducted by TER in January 2008. All measurements are rounded to the nearest 100 square feet. For the purpose of this analysis, TER defines the 'Daniel Street Commercial Area' to be comprised of the following retail nodes: Daniel Street Corridor, Arnprior Shopping Centre and Winners Circle. 1) 2) DEPARTMENT STORES SURROUNDING ARNPRIOR Pembroke Kanata Bells Corners Carleton Place Primary Zone Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East Subject Site SUPERMARKETS IN AND SURROUNDING ARNPRIOR 6 1 Kanata 3 2 Stittsville Carleton Place 5 Primary Zone Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East Subject Site SUPERMARKETS 1. Arnprior 2.Stittsville 3. Kanata A&P No Frills Your Independent Grocer 4. Bells Corners 5. Carleton Place Loeb Loblaws Price Chopper Price Chopper Your Independent Grocer Food Basics Loblaws Loeb Real Canadian Superstore Sobeys Your Independent Grocer 6. Renfrew Loeb Your Independent Grocer 4 Bells Corners CANADIAN TIRE STORES IN AND SURROUNDING ARNPRIOR Pembroke Kanata Bells Corners Carleton Place Primary Zone Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East Subject Site Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Appendix B – Licence Plate Survey Licence plate surveys are commonly employed to determine the customer draw of a single retail location, retail shopping plaza/centre, or retail node. Typically, the results are used as input into the delineation of a Study Area. Licence Plate Survey Approach and Limitations Licence plate surveys consist of recording the licence plates of vehicles leaving a retail parking lot. Typically, the recording of licence plates is distributed over two to three days (including a Saturday) at various times of the day, to ensure a representative sample. Once the licence plates have been recorded, they are submitted to the Ministry of Transportation (MTO). The MTO provides the corresponding Dissemination Area (DA) based on the address of the registered owner of the vehicle. Leased vehicles are also tracked to the address of the registered operator, not the leasing company. A DA is a small geographical area composed of one or more neighbouring blocks, with a population of 400 to 700 persons. All of Canada is divided into DAs. The results of the DA information obtained from the MTO are summarized and mapped by TER. This information is used in determining the customer draw of the various locations surveyed. If licence plate surveys were conducted at multiple locations, the aggregated results provide an indication of the customer draw of the node or community. It should be noted that licence plate surveys have some limitations when determining the customer draw of a single retail location, retail shopping plaza/centre, or retail node. Some of these limitations are outlined below: • Licence plate surveys do not factor in pedestrian traffic or customers using public transit; • The user of the vehicle may not be the owner of that vehicle and therefore, the DA corresponding to the address of the registered owner of the vehicle may not reflect the customer draw; and • A licence plate survey counts the number of cars at a location, but does not survey the actual expenditures made. Therefore, although the survey approximates the customer draw of the retail location, the proportion of expenditures may differ geographically. Despite these limitations, a licence plate survey is a valuable tool when determining the customer draw of a single retail location, retail shopping plaza/centre, or retail node. B-1 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Licence Plate Survey Typically, licence plate surveys are conducted to estimate Trade Area/Study Area boundaries and inflow factors. A survey of vehicle licence plates was undertaken at the following two locations in the Primary Zone: • No Frills supermarket at Winners Circle retail centre; and • Arnprior Shopping Centre (anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store); The survey distribution is illustrated in Table B-1. The time periods, distributions and locations of the exit sampling areas were determined by TER. The survey was conducted by TER over three days: Thursday January 31, Friday February 1 and Saturday February 2, 2008. In total, 900 licence plate surveys were recorded. TER identified that 16 duplicate licence plates were recorded in the sample. These duplicates were removed from the sample submitted to MTO. In addition 1 outof-province licence plate was also removed from the sample submitted to MTO. As a result, a total of 883 licence plates were submitted to MTO and 870 were returned as DA codes. The 1 out of province plate removed from the sample has been included as inflow in this analysis. Table B-2 illustrates the results of the licence plate survey sorted by Study Area zone and location. Maps plotting the origins of shoppers, as defined by the approximate location of the registered owners of vehicles, are also provided for each sample location. B-2 TABLE B-1 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS VEHICLE LICENCE PLATE SURVEY SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION (1 Arnprior Shopping Centre (2 No Frills Parking Lot 26 32 33 39 130 Percent Distribution 20% 25% 25% 30% 100% Location 1 13 16 16 20 65 Location 2 13 16 16 20 65 Percent Distribution 20% 25% 25% 30% 100% Friday, February 1, 2008 Open - 11am 11am - 2:30pm 2:30pm - 5:00pm 5:00pm - Close Daily Total 29 36 36 44 145 20% 25% 25% 30% 100% 15 18 18 22 73 15 18 18 21 72 20% 25% 25% 30% 100% Saturday, February 2, 2008 Open - 11am 11am - 2:00pm 2:00pm - Close Daily Total 61 61 53 175 35% 35% 30% 100% 31 31 26 88 31 31 25 87 35% 35% 30% 100% Total Surveys 450 Thursday, January 31, 2008 Open - 11am 11am - 2:30pm 2:30pm - 5:00pm 5:00pm - Close Daily Total Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Samples based on traffic flow patterns, field observations and site inspections. 2) Arnprior Shopping Centre is anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store. 1) 450 TABLE B-2 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS VEHICLE LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS BY LOCATION (1 Primary Zone Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East Total Study Area Quebec Other Total Total Surveys Returned % Share of Licence Plate Surveys Returned Total No Frills % Share of Licence Plate Surveys Returned Arnprior Shopping Centre (2 % Share of Licence Plate Surveys Returned 224 93 55 372 51.6% 21.4% 12.7% 85.7% 240 83 39 362 54.9% 19.0% 8.9% 82.8% 464 176 94 734 53.3% 20.2% 10.8% 84.3% 1 61 62 0.2% 14.1% 14.3% 0 75 75 0.0% 17.2% 17.2% 1 136 137 0.1% 15.6% 15.7% 434 100% 437 100% 871 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Survey results based on Ministry of Transportation "Vehicle Ownership Registration" information for licence plates recorded over the period January 31 - February 2, 2008. See Table B-1 for sampling distribution information. 2) Arnprior Shopping Centre is anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store. 1) NO FRILLS SUPERMARKET LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS Primary Zone Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East Subject Site NOTE: In most cases single icons represent multiple customers. ARNPRIOR SHOPPING CENTRE LICENCE PLATE SURVEY RESULTS (1 Primary Zone Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East Subject Site NOTE: In most cases single icons represent multiple customers. 1) Arnprior Shopping Centre is anchored by an A&P supermarket and a Hart general merchandise store. Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Appendix C – Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey Results TER contracted Network Research Field Services (Network Research) to undertake an in-home consumer telephone survey. Approximately 600 surveys were completed in April 2008 and included in our analysis. Network Research was provided with a detailed survey form and a sampling distribution for the 15 geographic areas as shown in Table C-1 and the accompanying maps. Network Research drew the sample and conducted the interviews. The results of the survey were coded and tabulated by TER. A summary of the survey results are indicated in Tables C-2 to C-19. The results of this survey research were incorporated into the market demand and impact analysis included in this report. C-1 TABLE C-1 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS IN-HOME CONSUMER TELEPHONE SURVEY SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION Sample Area Primary Zone 1 Town of Arnprior - East of the Madawaska River. 2 Town of Arnprior - West of the Madawaska River and East of Elgin St. 3 Town of Arnprior - South of Daniel St. or South of White Lake Rd. and West of the Madawaska River. 4 Town of Arnprior - North of Daniel St. or North of White Lake Rd. and West of Elgin St. 5 Township of McNab/Braeside - South of Neilson St. and East of Abigail St. Total Primary Zone Secondary Zone West 6 Township of McNab/Braeside - North of Hwy. 17 and either South of McLean Dr. (County Rd. 54) or South of Golf Club Rd. 7 Township of McNab/Braeside - South of Hwy .17 and South of Calabogie Rd. (Country Rd. 508). 8 Township of Greater Madawaska - South of Calabogie Rd. (County Rd. 508) and either East of Hydro Dam Rd. or East of Wabun Lake Rd . 9 Township of Lanark Highlands - North of Clyde River (2 and West of County Rd. 511. 10 Township of Lanark Highlands - North of Tatlock Rd. (County Rd 9) and East of County Rd. 511. 11 Town of Mississippi Mills - North of any of the following roads: Tatlock Rd. (County Rd. 9), Bellamy Mills Rd., Bennies Corners Rd., Blakeney Rd., Ridge Rd. or Panmure Rd. (Regional Rd. 46). 12 City of Ottawa - North of Panmure Rd. and West of Hwy. 417. Total Secondary Zone West Secondary Zone East 13 City of Ottawa - North of Panmure Rd. or North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy. (Regional Rd. 46), West of Regional Rd. 5 and East of Hwy. 417. 14 City of Ottawa - North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy. (Regional Rd. 46), West of Regional Rd. 9 and East of Regional Rd. 5. 15 City of Ottawa - North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy. (Regional Rd. 46) and East of Regional Rd 9. Total Secondary Zone East 2006 Population Population Distribution Survey Distribution 2,039 1,208 685 3,266 779 7,977 25.6% 15.1% 8.6% 40.9% 9.8% 100.0% 51 30 17 82 20 200 2,079 2,977 1,079 21.3% 30.5% 11.1% 43 61 22 209 420 2,457 2.1% 4.3% 25.2% 4 9 50 534 9,755 5.5% 100.0% 11 200 2,404 22.1% 44 3,339 5,132 10,875 30.7% 47.2% 100.0% 61 95 200 (1 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) Based on unadjusted 2006 Census data calculated using PCensus software. 2) For reference purposes, Clyde River runs adjacent to the following roads: Folger, Peterson's, K&P Trail, Clyde Forks, Flower Station, Lavant-Darling, French Line and Waddle Creek. PRIMARY ZONE SAMPLING AREAS McNAB/ BRAESIDE 5 2 1 4 OTTAWA 3 ARNPRIOR Madawaska River SECONDARY ZONE WEST SAMPLING AREAS 6 Hwy 17 McNAB / BRAESIDE GREATER MADAWASKA 7 12 11 8 10 Hydro Dam Rd / Wabun Lake Rd MISSISSIPPI MILLS 9 LANARK HIGHLANDS SECONDARY ZONE EAST SAMPLING AREAS 15 14 OTTAWA 13 TABLE C-2 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 1 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' DEPARTMENT STORE EXPENDITURES BY LOCATION (past 3 months) Primary Zone Sears - Ottawa - Carling Shopping Centre - 2165 Carling Avenue Sears - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 50 Rideau Street Sears - Ottawa - Saint-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1250 Saint-Laurent Boulevard The Bay - Ottawa - Bayshore Shopping Centre - 100 Bayshore Drive The Bay - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 73 Rideau Street The Bay - Ottawa - St-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1200 Saint-Laurent Boulevard Wal-Mart - Barrhaven - 3651 Stranherd Drive Wal-Mart - Kanata - 500 Earl Grey Drive Wal-Mart - Ottawa - 1350 Richmond Road Wal-Mart - Ottawa - 2210 Bank Street Zellers - Gloucester - Gloucester Centre - 1980 Ogilvie Road Zellers - Kanata - Hazeldean Mall - 300 Eagleson Road Zellers - Nepean (Bells Corners) - 59 Robertson Road Zellers - Nepean - Bayshore SC - 100 Bayshore Drive Zellers - Ottawa - 1055 St-Laurent Boulevard Zellers - Ottawa - Billings Bridge Plaza - 2277 Riverside Drive Zellers - Ottawa - Heritage Place - 156 Sparks St Subtotal Ottawa Wal-Mart (Supercentre) - Renfrew - 980 O'Brien Road Subtotal Renfrew Wal-Mart (Supercentre) - Carleton Place - 450 McNeely Avenue Subtotal Carleton Place Wal-Mart - Pembroke - 1108 Pembroke Street East Zellers - Pembroke - West End Mall - 1200 Pembroke Street West Subtotal Pembroke Sears - North Bay - Northgate Square - 1500 Fisher St Wal-Mart - North Bay - 1500 Fisher St (Fisher St & Hwy 17) Zellers - North Bay - 1899 Algonquin Avenue Subtotal North Bay Wal-Mart - Smiths Falls - 114 Lombard Street Zellers - Smiths Falls - County Fair Shopping Centre - 215 Brockville Street Subtotal Smith Falls Sears - Other The Bay - Other Wal-Mart - Other Zellers - Other Subtotal Other Ontario Sears - Hull - Les Galeries de Hall - 320 Boul Saint-Joseph Wal-Mart - Hull - 35 Boul de Plateau (Boul de Plateau & Boul St-Raymon) Zellers - Montreal, QC Subtotal Quebec Department Store - US Subtotal Department Store - US Total 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 28.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 66.0% 31.5% 31.5% 1.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 10.2% 0.0% 0.2% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 41.2% 39.2% 39.2% 13.0% 13.0% 2.5% 0.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 16.8% 0.1% 0.8% 12.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 43.1% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 95.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-3 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 1 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' DEPARTMENT STORE FOOD RELATED EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Primary Zone Sears - Ottawa - Carling Shopping Centre - 2165 Carling Ave Sears - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 50 Rideau St Sears - Ottawa - Saint-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1250 Boul Saint-Laurent The Bay - Ottawa - Bayshore Shopping Centre - 100 Bayshore Drive The Bay - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 73 Rideau St The Bay - Ottawa - St Laurent Shopping Centre - 1200 St Laurent Blvd Wal-Mart - Barrhaven - 3651 Stranherd Drive Wal-Mart - Kanata - 500 Earl Grey Drive Wal-Mart - Ottawa - 1350 Richmond Road Wal-Mart - Ottawa - 2210 Bank Street Zellers - Gloucester - Gloucester Centre - 1980 Ogilvie Road Zellers - Kanata - Hazeldean Mall - 300 Eagleson Road Zellers - Nepean (Bells Corners) - 59 Robertson Road Zellers - Nepean - Bayshore SC - 100 Bayshore Drive Zellers - Ottawa - 1055 St Laurent Boulevard Zellers - Ottawa - Billings Bridge Plaza - 2277 Riverside Drive Zellers - Ottawa - Heritage Place - 156 Sparks St Subtotal Ottawa Wal-Mart (Supercentre) - Renfrew - 980 O'Brien Road Subtotal Renfrew Wal-Mart (Supercentre) - Carleton Place - 450 McNeely Avenue Subtotal Carleton Place Wal-Mart - Pembroke - 1108 Pembroke Street East Zellers - Pembroke - West End Mall - 1200 Pembroke Street West Subtotal Pembroke Sears - North Bay - Northgate Square - 1500 Fisher St Wal-Mart - North Bay - 1500 Fisher St (Fisher St & Hwy 17) Zellers - North Bay - 1899 Algonquin Ave Subtotal North Bay Wal-Mart - Smiths Falls - 114 Lombard Street (Hwy 15 & Ferrara Dr) Zellers - Smiths Falls - County Fair Shopping Centre - 215 Brockville St Subtotal Smith Falls Sears - Other Ontario The Bay - Other Ontario Wal-Mart - Other Ontario Zellers - Other Ontario Subtotal Other Ontario Sears - Hull - Les Galeries de Hall - 320 Boul Saint-Joseph Wal-Mart - Hull - 35 Boul de Plateau (Boul de Plateau & Boul St-Raymon) Zellers - Montreal, QC Subtotal Quebec Department Store - US Subtotal Department Store - US Total 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 33.6% 62.3% 62.3% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 11.5% 54.5% 54.5% 27.0% 27.0% 6.1% 0.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 63.5% 7.5% 0.7% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 81.5% 8.2% 8.2% 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-4 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 1 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' DEPARTMENT STORE EXPENDITURES BY DEPARTMENT STORE BANNER (past 3 months) Primary Zone Sears - North Bay - Northgate Square - 1500 Fisher St Sears - Ottawa - Carling Shopping Centre - 2165 Carling Avenue Sears - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 50 Rideau St Sears - Ottawa - Saint-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1250 Saint-Laurent Boulevard Sears - Other Ontario Sears - Hull - Les Galeries de Hall - 320 Boul Saint-Joseph Subtotal Sears The Bay - Ottawa - Bayshore Shopping Centre - 100 Bayshore Drive The Bay - Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 73 Rideau Street The Bay - Ottawa - St Laurent Shopping Centre - 1200 St Laurent Boulevard The Bay - Other Ontario Subtotal The Bay Wal-Mart - Barrhaven - 3651 Stranherd Drive Wal-Mart (Supercentre) - Carleton Place - 450 McNeely Avenue Wal-Mart - Hull - 35 Boul de Plateau (Boul de Plateau & Boul St-Raymon) Wal-Mart - Kanata - 500 Earl Grey Drive Wal-Mart - North Bay - 1500 Fisher St (Fisher St & Hwy 17) Wal-Mart - Ottawa - 1350 Richmond Road Wal-Mart - Ottawa - 2210 Bank Street Wal-Mart - Pembroke - 1108 Pembroke Street East Wal-Mart (Supercentre) - Renfrew - 980 O'Brien Road Wal-Mart - Smiths Falls - 114 Lombard Street Wal-Mart - Other Ontario Subtotal Wal-Mart Zellers - Gloucester - Gloucester Centre - 1980 Ogilvie Road Zellers - Kanata - Hazeldean Mall - 300 Eagleson Road Zellers - North Bay - 1899 Algonquin Avenue Zellers - Nepean (Bells Corners) - 59 Robertson Road Zellers - Nepean - Bayshore SC - 100 Bayshore Drive Zellers - Ottawa - 1055 St Laurent Boulevard Zellers - Ottawa - Billings Bridge Plaza - 2277 Riverside Drive Zellers - Ottawa - Heritage Place - 156 Sparks St Zellers - Pembroke - West End Mall - 1200 Pembroke Street West Zellers - Smiths Falls - County Fair Shopping Centre - 215 Brockville Street Zellers - Other Ontario Zellers - Montreal, QC Subtotal Zellers Department Store - US Subtotal Department Stores - US Total 0.0% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 19.8% 7.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 8.7% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 28.9% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 31.5% 0.0% 0.0% 64.1% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 10.6% 6.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 7.6% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 2.5% 39.2% 0.5% 0.1% 73.1% 0.7% 3.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 8.0% 0.7% 0.7% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 0.0% 16.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 12.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 13.2% 0.2% 2.3% 0.0% 43.1% 0.0% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 51.3% 0.0% 12.7% 0.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 0.1% 0.1% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-5 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 2 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' TOTAL WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Primary Zone Costco - Kanata - 770 Silver Seven Road Costco - Nepean - 1849 Merivale Road Costco - Gloucester - 1900 Cyrville Road Costco - Kingston - 1015 Centennial Drive Total 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 94.7% 2.8% 1.6% 0.9% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 98.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-6 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 2 - SUMMARY OF STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB EXPENDITURES - FOOD & GROCERY (past 3 months) Primary Zone Costco - Kanata - 770 Silver Seven Road Costco - Nepean - 1849 Merivale Road Costco - Gloucester - 1900 Cyrville Road Costco - Kingston - 1015 Centennial Drive Total 99.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 95.8% 1.8% 1.0% 1.4% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 98.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-7 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 3 - SUMMARY STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' CANADIAN TIRE EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Primary Zone Canadian Tire - Arnprior - 245 Daniel Street South Subtotal Primary Zone Canadian Tire - Kanata - 8181 Campeau Drive Canadian Tire - Nepean (Bells Corners) - 85 Robertson Road Canadian Tire - Ottawa - 1660 Carling Avenue Canadian Tire - Ottawa - 1170 Heron Road Subtotal Ottawa Canadian Tire - Carleton Place - 485 McNeely Avenue Canadian Tire - Perth - 45 Dufferin Street Canadian Tire - Renfrew - 1050 O'Brien Road Canadian Tire - Shawville (QC) - Highway 148 Canadian Tire - Non Ontario Subtotal Other Canadian Tire Total 91.0% 91.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.4% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 53.5% 53.5% 12.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 12.1% 3.5% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 33.7% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 13.2% 13.2% 75.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.6% 79.5% 5.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-8 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 4 - SUMMARY STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) (1 Primary Zone Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Madawaska Boulevard - East of River Winners Circle Arnprior Shopping Centre Other Arnprior West of River Subtotal Primary Zone Braeside Calabogie Pakenham White Lake Other Secondary Zone West Subtotal Secondary Zone West Dunrobin Fitzroy Harbour Kinburn Woodlawn/Constance Bay Subtotal Secondary Zone East Bells Corners (Nepean) Carp Kanata Richmond Stittsville Subtotal Ottawa West of Hwy 416 Almonte Carleton Place Cobden Kemptville Ottawa East of Hwy 416 Pembroke Perth Petawawa Renfrew Smiths Falls Other Ontario Subtotal Other Ontario Quebec Other Canada Subtotal Other Canada US Subtotal US Total 60.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.8% 0.0% 93.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.3% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 45.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.8% 0.0% 77.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% 3.6% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 2.2% 0.2% 6.0% 0.1% 0.6% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 32.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 48.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 22.5% 0.0% 8.4% 31.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) The general merchandise stores expenditure category excludes department store, warehouse membership clubs and Canadian Tire expenditures. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-9 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 5 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' CLOTHING & ACCESSORIES STORES EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Primary Zone Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Madawaska Boulevard - East of River Winners Circle Arnprior Shopping Centre Other Arnprior West of River Subtotal Primary Zone Braeside Calabogie Pakenham White Lake Other Secondary Zone West Subtotal Secondary Zone West Dunrobin Fitzroy Harbour Kinburn Woodlawn/Constance Bay Subtotal Secondary Zone East Bells Corners (Nepean) Carp Kanata Richmond Stittsville Subtotal Ottawa West of Hwy 416 Almonte Carleton Place Cobden Kemptville Ottawa East of Hwy 416 Pembroke Perth Petawawa Renfrew Smiths Falls Other Ontario Subtotal Other Ontario Quebec Other Canada Subtotal Other Canada US Subtotal US Total 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.6% 0.0% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 37.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.6% 6.9% 48.7% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 0.0% 31.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 37.6% 1.0% 4.6% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.9% 57.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 5.5% 5.5% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 21.3% 0.0% 0.4% 27.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-10 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 6 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' MISCELLANEOUS RETAILERS EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Primary Zone Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Madawaska Boulevard - East of River Winners Circle Arnprior Shopping Centre Other Arnprior West of River Subtotal Primary Zone Braeside Calabogie Pakenham White Lake Other Secondary Zone West Subtotal Secondary Zone West Dunrobin Fitzroy Harbour Kinburn Woodlawn/Constance Bay Subtotal Secondary Zone East Bells Corners (Nepean) Carp Kanata Richmond Stittsville Subtotal Ottawa West of Hwy 416 Almonte Carleton Place Cobden Kemptville Ottawa East of Hwy 416 Pembroke Perth Petawawa Renfrew Smiths Falls Other Ontario Subtotal Other Ontario Quebec Other Canada Subtotal Other Canada US Subtotal US Total 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 25.1% 4.2% 51.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 13.5% 2.7% 27.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 31.5% 0.0% 0.0% 32.1% 5.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 2.1% 39.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.9% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.4% 1.3% 68.2% 0.0% 0.1% 74.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-11 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 7 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' BUILDING & OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORES EXPENDITURES (past 3 months) Primary Zone Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Madawaska Boulevard - East of River Winners Circle Arnprior Shopping Centre Other Arnprior West of River Subtotal Primary Zone Braeside Calabogie Pakenham White Lake Other Secondary Zone West Subtotal Secondary Zone West Dunrobin Fitzroy Harbour Kinburn Woodlawn/Constance Bay Subtotal Secondary Zone East Bells Corners (Nepean) Carp Kanata Richmond Stittsville Subtotal Ottawa West of Hwy 416 Almonte Carleton Place Cobden Kemptville Ottawa East of Hwy 416 Pembroke Perth Petawawa Renfrew Smiths Falls Other Ontario Subtotal Other Ontario Quebec Other Canada Subtotal Other Canada US Subtotal US Total 0.0% 23.0% 52.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 75.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 0.1% 10.4% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 0.0% 0.1% 27.5% 6.5% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 2.2% 40.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 0.0% 2.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.5% 71.8% 0.5% 1.0% 76.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-12 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS Question 8 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS & ELECTRONICS STORES EXPENDITURES (past 6 months) Primary Zone Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Madawaska Boulevard - East of River Winners Circle Arnprior Shopping Centre Other Arnprior West of River Subtotal Primary Zone Braeside Calabogie Pakenham White Lake Other Secondary Zone West Subtotal Secondary Zone West Dunrobin Fitzroy Harbour Kinburn Woodlawn/Constance Bay Subtotal Secondary Zone East Bells Corners (Nepean) Carp Kanata Richmond Stittsville Subtotal Ottawa West of Hwy 416 Almonte Carleton Place Cobden Kemptville Ottawa East of Hwy 416 Pembroke Perth Petawawa Renfrew Smiths Falls Other Ontario Subtotal Other Ontario Quebec Other Canada Subtotal Other Canada US Subtotal US Total 33.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 40.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 22.9% 7.1% 0.0% 5.1% 0.0% 4.9% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 43.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95.1% Secondary Zone East 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 45.4% 0.0% 0.0% 47.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 36.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-13 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS Question 9 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' PHARMACIES & PERSONAL CARE STORES EXPENDITURES (past month) Primary Zone Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Madawaska Boulevard - East of River Winners Circle Arnprior Shopping Centre Other Arnprior West of River Subtotal Primary Zone Braeside Calabogie Pakenham White Lake Other Secondary Zone West Subtotal Secondary Zone West Dunrobin Fitzroy Harbour Kinburn Woodlawn/Constance Bay Subtotal Secondary Zone East Bells Corners (Nepean) Carp Kanata Richmond Stittsville Subtotal Ottawa West of Hwy 416 Almonte Carleton Place Cobden Kemptville Ottawa East of Hwy 416 Pembroke Perth Petawawa Renfrew Smiths Falls Other Ontario Subtotal Other Ontario Quebec Other Canada Subtotal Other Canada US Subtotal US Total 52.7% 41.2% 0.0% 0.1% 3.6% 0.0% 97.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 28.9% 26.2% 0.0% 3.2% 0.7% 0.0% 59.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 17.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 5.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 9.8% 58.4% 0.0% 2.1% 71.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-14 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS Question 10 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' SUPERMARKET & OTHER GROCERY STORES EXPENDITURES (past month) Primary Zone A&P - Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South No Frills (Jack and Faith's) - Arnprior - Winners Circle - 39 Winners Circle Drive Subtotal Primary Zone Food Basics - Kanata - 150 Katimavik Road Loblaws - Kanata - 200 Earl Grey Drive Loeb - Kanata - 4048 Carling Avenue Real Canadian Superstore - Kanata - 760 Eagleson Road Sobeys - Kanata - 700 Terry Fox Drive Your Independent Grocer - Kanata - 300 Eagleson Road Subtotal Kanata Loeb - Bells Corners (Nepean) - 3655 Richmond Road Loblaws - Bells Corners (Nepean) - 59A Robertson Road Price Chopper - Bells Corners (Nepean) - 150 Robertson Road Subtotal Bells Corners (Nepean) YIG - Stittsville (Brown's) - 1251 Stittsville Main Street Subtotal Stittsville Loblaws Banner - Other Ottawa Real Canadian Superstore Banner - Other Ottawa Food Basics Banner - Other Ottawa Loeb Banner - Other Ottawa Sobeys Banner - Other Ottawa Your Independent Grocer Banner - Other Ottawa Subtotal Ottawa East of Hwy 416 Price Chopper - Carleton Place - 110 Lansdowne Avenue Your Independent Grocer (Steve's) - Carleton Place - 455 McNeely Avenue Subtotal Carleton Place Loeb - Renfrew - 83 Raglan Street South No Frills - Renfrew - 680 O'Brien Road Subtotal Renfrew Loeb - Perth - 50 Wilson Street West Your Independent Grocer (Hendrik's) - Perth - 80 Dufferin Road Subtotal Perth Food Basics - Smiths Falls - 275 Brockville Street Moncion Grocers - Pembroke - 425 Pembroke Street East No Frills (Mike and Lori's) - North Bay - 975 McKeown Avenue Real Canadian Superstore - Brockville - 1972 Parkdale Avenue Your Independent Grocer - Embrun - 753 Notre Dame Street Your Independent Grocer - Almonte - 401 Ottawa Street Subtotal Other Ontario Other Supermarkets - US Subtotal US Supermarkets Total 49.6% 41.7% 91.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 30.6% 28.3% 58.8% 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 1.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.6% 2.5% 4.1% 3.2% 11.0% 14.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 16.3% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 8.8% 17.0% 25.7% 6.4% 23.8% 22.4% 2.8% 1.5% 3.7% 60.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 1.5% 5.0% 4.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 99.6% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-15 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 11 - STUDY AREA RESIDENTS' OTHER FOOD STORES EXPENDITURES (past month) (1 Primary Zone Downtown Core Daniel Street Corridor Madawaska Boulevard - East of River Winners Circle Arnprior Shopping Centre Other Arnprior West of River Subtotal Primary Zone Braeside Calabogie Pakenham White Lake Other Secondary Zone West Subtotal Secondary Zone West Dunrobin Fitzroy Harbour Kinburn Woodlawn/Constance Bay Subtotal Secondary Zone East Bells Corners (Nepean) Carp Kanata Richmond Stittsville Subtotal Ottawa West of Hwy 416 Almonte Carleton Place Cobden Kemptville Ottawa East of Hwy 416 Pembroke Perth Petawawa Renfrew Smiths Falls Other Ontario Subtotal Other Ontario Quebec Other Canada Subtotal Other Canada US Subtotal US Total 56.9% 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 92.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone West 10.5% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 24.1% 12.3% 4.0% 1.3% 6.7% 0.0% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 4.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 12.3% 32.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Secondary Zone East 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 16.2% 3.9% 1.9% 7.5% 29.5% 1.2% 0.1% 56.2% 0.0% 0.0% 57.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) The 'Other Food Stores' expenditure category is comprised of convenience stores and specialty food stores su ch as meat markets, fish and seafood markets, fruit and vegetable markets and other special food stores as defined by Statistics Canada NAICS categories. NOTE: Expenditures are based on the results of the in-home consumer telephone survey completed on behalf of TER in April 2008. These results have not been adjusted or calibrated. Totals may not add due to rounding. TABLE C-16 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 12 - HOUSEHOLD SIZE 1 2 3 4 5 Over 5 Persons No Response Total Frequency Percent 109 268 78 88 39 17 3 602 18.1% 44.5% 13.0% 14.6% 6.5% 2.8% 0.5% 100.0 Frequency Percent 240 49 27 10 9 221 6 26 14 602 39.9% 8.1% 4.5% 1.7% 1.5% 36.7% 1.0% 4.3% 2.3% 100.0 Frequency Percent 16 56 91 142 134 160 3 602 2.7% 9.3% 15.1% 23.6% 22.3% 26.6% 0.5% 100.0 Frequency Percent 186 416 602 30.9% 69.1% 100.0 Cumulative Percent 18.1% 62.6% 75.6% 90.2% 96.7% 99.5% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. TABLE C-17 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 13 - EMPLOYMENT STATUS Employed outside of the home - Full-Time Employed outside of the home - Part-Time Employed Full-Time and working out of the home Employed Part-Time and working ouf of the home Unemployed Retired Student Homemaker Other Total Cumulative Percent 39.9% 48.0% 52.5% 54.2% 55.6% 92.4% 93.4% 97.7% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. TABLE C-18 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 14 - AGE BRACKET Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and Over Refused Total Cumulative Percent 2.7% 12.0% 27.1% 50.7% 72.9% 99.5% 100.0% Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. TABLE C-19 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS QUESTION 15 - PRIMARY SHOPPER Male Primary Shopper Female Primary Shopper Total Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Cumulative Percent 30.9% 100.0% TOWN OF ARNPRIOR TELEPHONE CONSUMER SURVEY For Office Use Interviewer: _______________________ Verified by: ________________ Date of Interview: ___________________ Good ________________. My name is ____________________ of Network Research, a market research company. We are conducting a survey of people's shopping habits and I would like to ask you a few questions. I assure you we are not selling anything. A. May I speak with the person in your household who does most of the shopping? YES: GO TO QUESTION B. NO: TERMINATE INTERVIEW. THIS IS NOT A COMPLETED SURVEY. None .......PROBE TO SPEAK WITH FEMALE/MALE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD AND IF NEITHER ARE AVAILABLE, TERMINATE INTERVIEW AND RECORD. B. In the last THREE MONTHS, have you done any shopping whatsoever? YES: GO TO QUESTION C. NO: C. TERMINATE INTERVIEW. THIS IS NOT A COMPLETED SURVEY. INTERVIEWER: Ask the appropriate question below from the list for the SAMPLE AREA you are calling: Do you live in the… Interviewer: Please Watch Quota Circle Sample Area E. 1 Town of Arnprior - East of the Madawaska River 2 Town of Arnprior - West of the Madawaska River and East of Elgin St 3 Town of Arnprior - Either South of Daniel Street or South of White Lake Road and West of the Madawaska River 4 Town of Arnprior - Either North of Daniel Street or North of White Lake Road and West of Elgin Street 5 Township of McNab/Braeside - South of Neilson St and East of Abigail St 6 Township of McNab/Braeside - North of Hwy 17 and either South of McLean Dr (County Road 54) or South of Golf Club Rd 7 Township of McNab/Braeside - South of Hwy 17 and South of Calabogie Rd (Country Rd 508) 8 Township of Greater Madawaska - South of Calabogie Rd (County Rd 508) and either East of Hydro Dam Rd or East of Wabun Lake Rd 9 Township of Lanark Highlands - North of the Clyde River and West of County Rd 511 10 Township of Lanark Highlands - North of Tatlock Rd (County Rd 9) and East of County Rd 511 11 Town of Mississippi Mills - North of any of the following roads: Tatlock Rd (County Rd 9), Bellamy Mills Rd, Bennies Corners Rd, Blakeney Rd, Ridge Rd or Panmure Rd (Regional Rd 46) 12 City of Ottawa - North of Panmure Rd and West of Hwy 417 13 City of Ottawa - Either North of Panmure Rd or North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy (Regional Road 46), West of Regional Rd 5 and East of Hwy 417 14 City of Ottawa - North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy (Regional Rd 46), West of Regional Rd 9 and East of Regional Rd 5 15 City of Ottawa - North of Thomas A. Dolan Pkwy (Regional Rd 46) and East of Regional Rd 9 What community is your residence in? City/Township/Community: F. Could you please tell me your 6 digit postal code at this residence? circle No / Refused: 1 INTERVIEWER: Please record data below and continue with survey Phone Number: Address: Time Started: City/Township/Community: am / pm Time Finished: INTERVIEWER: Please ensure that information is complete, then proceed to Question 1a. Page 1 am / pm 1 a) In the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped in a DEPARTMENT STORE, such as The Bay, Sears, Wal-Mart or Zellers? Yes ................ 1 [GO TO QUESTION 1 b)] No ................ 2 [SKIP TO QUESTION 2 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 1 b) What is the name of the store and where is it located? 1 c) About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store in total? 1 d) 1 d) And how much of this was spent on items that you would normally find in a supermarket, such as food and groceries, health and beauty aids and cleaning supplies? 1 b) Name of Store 1 b) Location Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location 1 c) Amount Spent in Total 1 d) Supermarket Items Sears Hull - Les Galeries de Hall - 320 Boul Saint-Joseph Sears North Bay - Northgate Square - 1500 Fisher St 1 $ .00 $ .00 2 $ .00 $ Sears .00 Ottawa - Carling Shopping Centre - 2165 Carling Ave 3 $ .00 $ .00 Sears Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 50 Rideau St 4 $ .00 $ .00 Sears Ottawa - Saint-Laurent Shopping Centre - 1250 Boul Saint-Laurent 5 $ .00 $ .00 The Bay Ottawa - Bayshore Shopping Centre - 100 Bayshore Dr 6 $ .00 $ .00 The Bay Ottawa - Rideau Centre - 73 Rideau St 7 $ .00 $ .00 The Bay Ottawa - St Laurent Shopping Centre - 1200 St Laurent Blvd 8 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart Barrhaven - 3651 Stranherd Dr (Stranherd Dr & Greenbank Rd) 9 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart (Supercentre) Carleton Place - 450 McNelley Avenue 10 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart Hull - 35 Boul de Plateau (Boul de Plateau & Boul St-Raymon) 11 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart Kanata - 500 Earl Grey Dr (Hwy 7 & Terry Fox Dr.) 12 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart North Bay - 1500 Fisher St (Fisher St & Hwy 17) 13 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart Ottawa - 1350 Richmond Rd (Richmond Rd & Carling Ave) 14 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart Ottawa - 2210 Bank St (Hunt Club & Bank St) 15 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart Pembroke - 1108 Pembroke St E (Hwy 148 & Angus Campbell Rd) 16 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart (Supercentre) Renfrew - 980 O'Brien Rd (O'Brien Rd & Wrangler Rd) 17 $ .00 $ .00 Zellers Gloucester - Gloucester Centre - 1980 Ogilvie Rd 18 $ .00 $ .00 Zellers Kanata - Hazeldean Mall - 300 Eagleson Rd 19 $ .00 $ .00 Zellers North Bay - 1899 Algonquin Ave 20 $ .00 $ .00 Zellers Ottawa - 1055 St Laurent Blvd 21 $ .00 00 $ .00 00 Zellers Ottawa - Billings Bridge Plaza - 2277 Riverside Dr 22 $ .00 $ .00 Zellers Ottawa - Heritage Place - 156 Sparks St 23 $ .00 $ .00 Zellers Pembroke - West End Mall - 1200 Pembroke St W 24 $ .00 $ .00 OTHER [SPECIFY] Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location Sears 95 $ .00 $ .00 The Bay 96 $ .00 $ .00 Wal-Mart 97 $ .00 $ .00 Zellers 98 $ .00 $ .00 Other 99 $ .00 $ .00 CIRCLE CODE(S) Have you shopped at any other DEPARTMENT STORES IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 1 b) to 1 d) as OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO GO TO 2 a) Page 2 2 a) In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB, such as Costco or Sam's Club? Circle Yes …. 1 No….. 2 [GO TO QUESTION [SKIP TO QUESTION 2 b)] 2 f) BELOW] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 2 b) What is the name of the club and where is it located? 2 c) About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this club in TOTAL? 2 d) And how much of this was spent on items that you would normally find in a supermarket, such as food and groceries, health and beauty aids and cleaning supplies? 2 e) 2 b) Name of Store 2 b) Location Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location 2 c) Amount Spent in Total Costco Kanata - 770 Silver Seven Road 1 $ .00 $ .00 Costco Nepean - 1849 Merivale Road 2 $ .00 $ .00 Costco Gloucester - 1900 Cyrville Road 3 $ .00 $ .00 OTHER [SPECIFY] Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location CIRCLE CODE(S) 2 d) Supermarket Items CODE(S) Costco 97 $ .00 $ .00 Sam's Club 98 $ .00 $ .00 Other WMC 99 $ .00 $ .00 Have you shopped at any other WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB in the past THREE MONTHS? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTIONS 2 b) to 2 d) AS OFTEN AS NECESSARY. IF NO, GO TO 2 f) 2 f) Are you yourself a member of a WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB, such as Costco or Sam's Club? Circle 3 a) Yes ….. 1 [GO TO 3 a)] No …. 2 [GO TO 3 a)] In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a Canadian Tire Store? Circle Yes …. 1 No….. 2 [GO TO QUESTION [SKIP TO QUESTION 3 b)] 4 a) Below] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 3 b) Where is the store located? 3 c) About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store? 3 b) Name of Store 3 b) Location CIRCLE Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location CODE(S) Canadian Tire Arnprior - 245 Daniel Street South 1 $ .00 Canadian Tire Carleton Place - 485 McNeely Avenue 2 $ .00 Canadian Tire Kanata - 8181 Campeau Drive 3 $ .00 Canadian Tire Renfrew - 1050 O'Brien Road 4 $ .00 Canadian Tire Shawville (QC) - Highway 148 5 $ .00 OTHER [SPECIFY] Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location 99 $ .00 Canadian Tire 3 d) 3 c) Amount Spent Have you shopped at any other CANADIAN TIRE store in the past THREE MONTHS? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 3 b) to 3 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO to 4 a) Page 3 4 a) In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES? Circle Circle (i) A discount store, such as Giant Tiger? Yes 1 [GO TO 4 b] No 2 [SKIP TO (ii)] (ii) A dollar store? Yes 1 [GO TO 4 b] No 2 [SKIP TO (iii)] (iii) A variety or general store? Yes 1 [GO TO 4 b] No 2 [SKIP TO (iv)] (iv) A Sears Catalogue outlet? Yes 1 [GO TO 4 b] No 2 [GO TO 5 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 4 b) What is the name of the store and where is it located? 4 c) About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store? 4 b) Name of Store 4 b) Location CIRCLE 4 c) Amount Spent Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location CODE(S) A Buck or Two Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 Giant Tiger Arnprior - 80 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Hart Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 Super Lucky Dollar Store Arnprior - 8 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 OTHERS [ SPECIFY] Name of Store 4 d) Location OTHER Arnprior 10 $ .00 Almonte 35 $ .00 Calabogie 12 $ .00 Carleton Place 36 $ .00 Cobden 37 $ .00 Ottawa 38 $ .00 Pakenham 13 $ .00 Pembroke 39 $ .00 Renfrew 40 $ .00 White Lake 14 $ .00 OTHER Ontario 96 $ .00 Quebec 97 $ .00 OTHER Canada 98 $ .00 USA 99 $ .00 Have you shopped at any other GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE in the past THREE MONTHS? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 4 b) to 4 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO to 5 a) Page 4 5 a) In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following CLOTHING, SHOE or ACCESSORIES STORES? Circle Circle (i) A men's, women's or children's wear store? Yes 1 [GO TO 5 b] No 2 [SKIP TO (ii)] (ii) A family apparel or unisex apparel store? Yes 1 [GO TO 5 b] No 2 [SKIP TO (iii)] (iii) An accessory store, such as ties, hosiery or lingerie? Yes 1 [GO TO 5 b] No 2 [SKIP TO (iv)] (iv) A shoe store? Yes 1 [GO TO 5 b] No 2 [SKIP TO (v)] (v) A jewellery, leather or luggage store? Yes 1 [GO TO 5 b] No 2 [GO TO 6 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 5 b) What is the name of the store and where is it located? 5 c) About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store? 5 b) Name of Store 5 b) Location CIRCLE 5 c) Amount Spent Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location CODE(S) Ashley Boutique Arnprior - 131 John Street North 1 $ .00 Audrey's In Town Fashion Arnprior - 132 John Street North 1 $ .00 Belinda's Fashions Arnprior - 18 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Biba Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 Cat's Meow, The Arnprior - 14 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Collections Arnprior - 54 Madawaska Street 1 $ .00 Doreens's Gold Bar Arnprior - Heritage Square - 75 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Krieger Jewellers Arnprior - 125 John Street North 1 $ .00 Laplante Men's Wear Arnprior - 106 John Street North 1 $ .00 Mark's Work Warehouse Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 Reitmans Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 Sox Plus Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 Sports Zone Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 Tiny Treasures Arnprior - 62 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Zeina Fashion & Maternity Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 OTHER Arnprior 10 $ .00 Almonte 35 $ .00 Calabogie 12 $ .00 Carleton Place 36 $ .00 Cobden 37 $ .00 Ottawa 38 $ .00 Pakenham 13 $ .00 Pembroke 39 $ .00 Renfrew 40 $ .00 White Lake 14 $ .00 OTHER Ontario 96 $ .00 Quebec 97 $ .00 OTHER Canada 98 $ .00 USA 99 $ .00 OTHERS [ SPECIFY] Name of Store 5 d) Location Have you shopped at any other CLOTHING, SHOE or ACCESSORIES STORE in the past THREE MONTHS? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 5 b) to 5 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO TO 6 a) Page 5 6 a) In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following SPECIALTY STORES? (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (vii) (viii) (ix) (x) A sporting goods store? A toy store, craft store or hobby shop? A books, music, CD or tape shop? An office supplies or stationery store? A pet store? A florist or card shop? A used merchandise store? A fabric or wool shop? A gift or novelty shop? An art gallery? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Circle 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 1 GO TO 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 b) b) b) b) b) b) b) b) b) b) No No No No No No No No No No Circle 2 [SKIP TO (ii)] 2 [SKIP TO (iii)] 2 [SKIP TO (iv)] 2 [SKIP TO (v)] 2 [SKIP TO (vi)] 2 [SKIP TO (vii)] 2 [SKIP TO (viii)] 2 [SKIP TO (ix)] 2 [SKIP TO (x)] 2 [GO TO 7 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 6 b) What is the name of the store and where is it located? 6 c) About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store? 6 b) Name of Store 6 b) Location CIRCLE 6 c) Amount Spent Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location CODE(S) Antiques Etcetera Arnprior - 28 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Antiques, Treasures and Treats Arnprior - 260 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Arnprior Bait Shop Arnprior - 170 McGonigal Street West 1 $ .00 Arnprior Book Shop Arnprior - 152 John Street North 1 $ .00 Arnprior Source for Sports Arnprior - Winner's Circle - 39 Winner's Circle Drive 3 $ .00 Attic Toy Shop, The Arnprior - 26 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 BB Buy Back Arnprior - 124 John Street North 1 $ .00 Chapawee Woodworks Arnprior - 100 John Street North 1 $ .00 Citadel Crafts Arnprior - 102 Joun Street North 1 $ .00 Country Routes 5 Arnprior - 181 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Gallery Gift Shop Arnprior - 150 John Street North 1 $ .00 Gilks Signs and Trophies Arnprior - 87 Daniel Street North 1 $ .00 Howard's Buy, Sell, Trade Arnprior - 111 John Street North 1 $ .00 Keeping Company Arnprior - 114 John Street North 1 $ .00 Kevin Dodds Gallery Arnprior - 47 John Street North 1 $ .00 Main Street Music Arnprior - 44 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Mel's House of Flowers Arnprior - 291 Elgin Street West 5 $ .00 Pet Value Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street North 4 $ .00 Play it Again Sports Arnprior - 4 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Priority Wines Arnprior - 67 Madawaska Street 1 $ .00 Sew Inspired Arnprior - 104 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Signature Flowers Ltd. Arnprior - 75 Daniel Street North 1 $ .00 Treasure Chest, The - Antiques Arnprior - 46 Madawaska Street 1 $ .00 Valley Brewmaster Arnprior - Towne Center - 106 McGonigal Street West 1 $ .00 Valley Textiles Arnprior - 128 John Street North 1 $ .00 OTHER Arnprior 10 $ .00 Almonte 35 $ .00 Calabogie 12 $ .00 Carleton Place 36 $ .00 Cobden 37 $ .00 Ottawa 38 $ .00 Pakenham 13 $ .00 Pembroke 39 $ .00 Renfrew 40 $ .00 White Lake 14 $ .00 OTHER Ontario 96 $ .00 Quebec 97 $ .00 OTHER Canada 98 $ .00 USA 99 $ .00 OTHERS [ SPECIFY] Name of Store 6 d) Location Have you shopped at any other SPECIALTY STORE in the past THREE MONTHS? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 6 b) to 6 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO TO 7 a) Page 6 7 a) In just the past THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following BUILDING AND HOME SUPPLIES STORES? Circle Circle (i) A home improvement centre, such as Rona, Cashway, Home Depot or Lowes? Yes 1 GO TO 7 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (ii)] (ii) A hardware store or lumber yard? Yes 1 GO TO 7 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (iii)] (iii) A paint and wallpaper store? Yes 1 GO TO 7 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (iv)] (iv) A nursery or garden centre? Yes 1 GO TO 7 b) No 2 [GO TO 8 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 7 b) What is the name of the store and where is it located? 7 c) About how much did you spend during the past THREE MONTHS at this store? 7 b) Name of Store 7 Location Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location 7 c) Amount Spent Arnprior Glass and Mirror Arnprior - 83 Daniel Street North 1 $ .00 Arnprior Colour Centre Arnprior - 89 McLaughlin Street 5 $ .00 Arnprior Home Hardware Arnprior - 290 Daniel Street South 1 $ .00 Evenson Heating Arnprior - 87 Madawaska Street 1 $ .00 M&R Feeds and Farm Supply Ltd. Arnprior - 70 Decosta Street 2 $ .00 MacPherson Plumbing and Heating Arnprior - 106 Daniel Street North 1 $ .00 Rona Home Centre Arnprior - 236 Madawaska Boulevard 2 $ .00 Scheel Windows Ltd. Arnprior - 210 Madawaska Boulevard 2 $ .00 TSC Store Arnprior - 60 Staye Court Drive 5 $ .00 CIRCLE CODE(S) OTHERS [ SPECIFY] Name of Store 7 d) Location OTHER Arnprior 10 $ .00 Almonte 35 $ .00 Calabogie 12 $ .00 Carleton Place 36 $ .00 Cobden 37 $ .00 Ottawa 38 $ .00 Pakenham 13 $ .00 Pembroke 39 $ .00 Renfrew 40 $ .00 White Lake 14 $ .00 OTHER Ontario 96 $ .00 Quebec 97 $ .00 OTHER Canada 98 $ .00 USA 99 $ .00 Have you shopped at any other BUILDING AND HOME SUPPLIES STORE in the past THREE MONTHS? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 7 b) to 7 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO TO 8 a) Page 7 INTERVIEWER: THE FOLLOWING QUESTION IS FOR SHOPPING HABITS IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS 8 a) In just the past SIX MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following HOME FURNISHINGS or ELECTRONICS STORES? Circle Circle (i) A furniture store, furniture warehouse, or appliance store? Yes 1 GO TO 8 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (ii)] (ii) A TV, Stereo or Electronics store? Yes 1 GO TO 8 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (iii)] (iii) A lamp or lighting fixtures store? Yes 1 GO TO 8 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (iv)] (iv) A computer or software store? Yes 1 GO TO 8 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (v)] (v) A carpet or flooring shop? Yes 1 GO TO 8 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (vi)] (vi) A camera or photo supply shop? Yes 1 GO TO 8 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (vii)] (vii) A drapery or blinds store? Yes 1 GO TO 8 b) No 2 [SKIP TO 9 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 8 b) What is the name of the store and where is it located? 8 c) About how much did you spend during the past SIX MONTHS at this store? 8 b) Name of Store 8 b) Location Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location 8 c) Amount Spent Arnprior Floor Covering Arnprior - 264 Herrick Drive 2 $ .00 Ben's TV and Radio Arnprior - 108 John Street North 1 $ .00 PCS Computers Arnprior - 46 Madawaska Street 1 $ .00 Pete and Lou's Fireplace and Bath Centre Arnprior - 264 Herrick Drive 1 $ .00 Photo Max Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 Priority Business Services (Bell Mobility) Arnprior - 75 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Radio Shack (Dr J Audiotronic) Arnprior - 123 John Street North 1 $ .00 Robertson Furniture and Sleep Gallery Arnprior - 137 John Street North 1 $ .00 Scheel Communications Arnprior - 8 McGonigal Street West 1 $ .00 Sears Appliance Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 4 $ .00 CIRCLE CODE(S) OTHERS [ SPECIFY] Name of Store 8 d) Location OTHER Arnprior 10 $ .00 Almonte 35 $ .00 Calabogie 12 $ .00 Carleton Place 36 $ .00 Cobden 37 $ .00 Ott Ottawa 38 $ .00 00 Pakenham 13 $ .00 Pembroke 39 $ .00 Renfrew 40 $ .00 White Lake 14 $ .00 OTHER Ontario 96 $ .00 Quebec 97 $ .00 OTHER Canada 98 $ .00 USA 99 $ .00 Have you shopped at any other HOME FURNISHING STORES in the PAST SIX MONTHS? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 8 b) to 8 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO TO 9 a) Page 8 INTERVIEWER: THE FOLLOWING QUESTION IS FOR SHOPPING HABITS IN THE PAST MONTH 9 a) In just the PAST MONTH, have you shopped at any of the following PHARMACIES & PERSONAL CARE STORES? Circle Circle (i) A pharmacy or drug store? Yes 1 GO TO 9 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (ii)] (ii) A cosmetic store? Yes 1 GO TO 9 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (iii)] (iii) An optical store? Yes 1 GO TO 9 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (iv)] (iv) A health food or nutritional supplement store? Yes 1 GO TO 9 b) No 2 [SKIP TO 10 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 9 b) What is the name of the store and where is it located? 9 c) About how much did you spend during the past MONTH at this store? 9 b) Name of Store 9 b) Location Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location 9 c) Amount Spent Clancy's Drug Store Arnprior - 99 John Street North 1 $ .00 Herbal Magic Arnprior - Winner's Circle - 39 Winner's Circle Drive 3 $ .00 Rexall Drug Store Arnprior - 22 Baskin Drive East 1 $ .00 Shoppers Drug Mart Arnprior - 55 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Valley Vision Optical Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 John Street South 4 $ .00 CIRCLE CODE(S) OTHERS [ SPECIFY] Name of Store 9 d) Location OTHER Arnprior 10 $ .00 Almonte 35 $ .00 Calabogie 12 $ .00 Carleton Place 36 $ .00 Cobden 37 $ .00 Ottawa 38 $ .00 Pakenham 13 $ .00 Pembroke 39 $ .00 Renfrew 40 $ .00 White Lake 14 $ .00 OTHER Ontario 96 $ .00 Quebec 97 $ .00 OTHER Canada 98 $ .00 USA 99 $ .00 Have you shopped at any other DRUG, COSMETIC STORES or OPTICAL STORES? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 9 b) to 9 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO TO 10 a) Page 9 INTERVIEWER: THE FOLLOWING QUESTION IS FOR SHOPPING HABITS IN THE PAST MONTH 10 a) In just the past MONTH, have you shopped in a DISCOUNT or FULL SERVICE SUPERMARKET or a GROCERY STORE? Yes ................ 1 [GO TO QUESTION 10 b)] No ................ 2 [SKIP TO QUESTION 11 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 10 b) What is the name of the supermarket and where is it located? 10 c) About how much did you spend during the past MONTH at this store? 10 b) Name of Store b) b) Location CIRCLE Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location CODE(S) 10 c) Amount Spent A&P Arnprior - Arnprior Shopping Centre - 375 Daniel Street South 1 $ .00 No Frills (Jack and Faith's) Arnprior - Winner's Circle - 39 Winner's Circle Drive 2 $ .00 YIG Almonte - 401 Ottawa Street 3 $ .00 Loeb Renfrew - 83 Ragalan Street South 4 $ .00 No Frills Renfrew - 680 O'Brien Road 5 $ .00 OTHER Arnprior 10 $ .00 Calabogie 12 $ .00 Carleton Place 36 $ .00 Cobden 37 $ .00 Ottawa 38 $ .00 Pakenham 13 $ .00 Pembroke 39 $ .00 White Lake 14 $ .00 OTHER Ontario 96 $ .00 Quebec 97 $ .00 OTHER Canada 98 $ .00 USA 99 $ .00 OTHERS [ SPECIFY] Name of Store 10 d) Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location Have you shopped at any other SUPERMARKETS or GROCERY STORES? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 10 b) to 10 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO TO 11 a) Page 10 INTERVIEWER: THE FOLLOWING QUESTION IS FOR SHOPPING HABITS IN THE PAST MONTH 11 a) In just the past MONTH, have you shopped at any of the following SPECIALTY FOOD STORES? Circle Circle (i) A convenience store or jug milk store? Yes 1 GO TO 11 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (ii)] (ii) A fish, meat or seafood market or deli? Yes 1 GO TO 11 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (iii)] (iii) A green grocer or fruit & vegetable market? Yes 1 GO TO 11 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (iv)] (iv) A candy or nut store? Yes 1 GO TO 11 b) No 2 [SKIP TO (v)] (v) A health food, bulk food or cheese store? Yes 1 GO TO 11 b) No 2 [SKIP TO 12 a)] FOR EACH "YES" RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER 11 b) What is the name of the specialty food store and where is it located? 11 c) About how much did you spend during the past MONTH at this store? 11 b) Name of Store 11 b) Location Community/Shopping Centre/Street Location Arnprior Bulk & Natural Foods Arnprior - 115 John Street North 1 $ .00 Bonnechere Bakery Arnprior - 24 Elgin Street West 1 $ .00 Bonnie Jane's Scones Arnprior - 148 John Street North 1 $ .00 Gord's Confectionary Arnprior - 80 Ottawa Street 5 $ .00 John's Variety Store Arnprior - 81 John Street North 1 $ .00 M&M Meat Shop Arnprior - 345 White Lke Road 5 $ .00 Mac's Milk Arnprior - 80 Madawaska Street 1 $ .00 Mac's Milk Arnprior - 354 White Lake Road 5 $ .00 Valley Roots (Deli) Arnprior - 100 Madawaska Boulevard 2 $ .00 11 c) Amount Spent CIRCLE CODE(S) OTHERS [ SPECIFY] Name of Store 11 d) Location OTHER Arnprior 10 $ .00 Almonte 35 $ .00 Calabogie 12 $ .00 Carleton Place 36 $ .00 Cobden 37 $ .00 Ottawa 38 $ .00 Pakenham 13 $ .00 Pembroke 39 $ .00 Renfrew 40 $ .00 White Lake 14 $ .00 OTHER Ontario 96 $ .00 Quebec 97 $ .00 OTHER Canada 98 $ .00 USA 99 $ .00 Have you shopped at any other SPECIALTY FOOD STORES? IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 11 b) to 11 c) above as often as necessary. If NO, GO TO 12 a) Page 11 Finally these last few questions will help us clarify your answers and compare them with others from the survey. 12 a) In just the past SIX MONTHS, have you made any 12 b) IF ANSWER YES - About how much did you spend in the past SIX MONTHS? purchases using the following three shopping formats? circle 13 ) YES NO (i) Home Shopping Network 1 2 IF YES, ASK 12 b) (i) $ .00 (ii) Mail Order 1 2 IF YES, ASK 12 b) (ii) $ .00 (iii) The Internet 1 2 IF YES, ASK 12 b) (iii) $ .00 How many persons live in your household? Enter the number of people 14 ) Are you ….? 15 ) In which of the following age groups are you? [READ LIST] CIRCLE 16 ) CIRCLE Employed outside the Home Full-Time 1 Under 25 1 Employed outside the Home Part-Time 2 25-34 2 Employed full time and working out of your home? 3 35-44 3 Employed part time and working out of your home? 4 45-54 4 Unemployed 5 55-64 5 Retired 6 65 and over 6 Student 7 Refused 7 Homemaker 8 Other (SPECIFY: ) 9 INTERVIEWER: PLEASE RECORD INTERVIEW COMPLETED WITH: Male primary shopper 1 Female primary shopper 2 THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AND CO-OPERATION ! Page 12 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Appendix D – Basic Assumptions and Definition of Terms Basic Assumptions TER has studied the market demand and impacts of numerous proposed retail developments, many of which are now in operation throughout the Province. TER understands the challenges associated with making forecasts and recognizes that deviations from historic patterns are likely to occur. Nonetheless, it remains our opinion that basic assumptions are necessary to conduct retail planning exercises such as this one in the Town of Arnprior. These basic assumptions are outlined below: • The population forecasts are presumed to be accurate. If these forecasts prove to diverge significantly from the population levels realized the conclusions of this report may require revision. • All proposed major retail developments in the Primary Zone, for which applications have been submitted, have been recognized in the TER analysis. • The assumptions regarding sales performance of existing retailers are considered to be reliable. If actual sales volumes become available, TER reserves the right to revise the analysis and conclusions, as required. This report and its conclusions should be reviewed in light of these basic assumptions. Gross Leasable Area (GLA) Gross leasable area (GLA) is the total floor area designed for tenant occupancy and exclusive use, typically including basements, upper floors and mezzanines. It is expressed in square feet, and measured from the centre line of joint partitions and from outside wall faces. GLA is the area on which tenants pay rent, and which produces income for a tenant. Since it lends itself readily to measurement and comparison, GLA has been adopted by the shopping centre industry as its standard for statistical comparison. In TER’s inventory of competitive space in the Primary Zone, only ground floor retail and storage space was included. Mezzanines and basement space has only been included when the entire retail sales area is located in an upper or lower level of a building. Net Undercoverage As defined by Statistics Canada, “Net census undercoverage is the difference between the number of persons who should have been enumerated but were missed (undercoverage), and the number of persons who were enumerated but who should D-1 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis not have been or who were counted more than once (overcoverage). The coverage studies provide direct estimates of undercoverage of the 1996 and 2001 censuses at the provincial and territorial level.” Population Projections Population forecasts for the Study Area are based on TER’s review of Statistics Canada historic Census data and published forecast information from the following sources: • Arnprior Development Charges Background Study prepared by McIntosh Perry, September 2005 • Prospects for Population, Housing and Jobs, City of Ottawa, November 2007 • Data provided by the County of Renfrew Economic Development Department TER used the 2006 Census of Canada to establish a base population for each zone of the Study Area. The Census base population figures were adjusted for Census Net Undercoverage using a 2006 Census undercoverage adjustment for the County of Renfrew and Lanark County. TER extrapolated forecast growth rates from the referenced population projection sources above and applied these growth rates to the adjusted Census base population to forecast population levels for the study years. Per Capita Income Per capita income represents average total personal income before tax, as defined by Statistics Canada. The Study Area income indices are based on the results of the 2001 Census of Canada. The detailed calculations that were used in the determination of the Study Area residents’ per capita income levels have been summarized in Table D-1 that follows. Per capita NFOR & FOR Expenditures TER’s calculation of per capita NFOR & FOR expenditures for the Province of Ontario in 2007 are based on full year 2007 Retail Trade data and are included in Tables D-2 and D-3. Study Area Residents’ NFOR & FOR Expenditure Potential Expenditure potential is the total annual expenditures made by Study Area residents. This includes purchases made both inside and outside the Study Area. It is calculated by multiplying the average per capita expenditure indices by the total population of a Study Area or study zone. D-2 Town of Arnprior – Retail Market Demand and Impact Analysis Real Growth Real growth refers to the amount that sales volumes or expenditures would increase in future years with inflation eliminated. Therefore, references to the Canadian dollar, dealing with both the present and future period, reflect its 2007 value in this report. For the purposes of our study, a real growth of 1.5% per year for NFOR expenditures and 0.5% for FOR expenditures has been utilized, based on historic real growth for retail expenditures in Ontario. TER Retail and Service Classification System Statistics Canada no longer publishes Retail Trade data classified by Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC). The revised system under which the data is published is known as the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). NAICS retail definitions are included as Tables D-4 and D-5. The Inventory Classification system used by TER is provided in Table D-6. It is based on NAICS codes to correspond with the most recently published Statistics Canada Retail Trade data. D-3 TABLE D-1 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS 2001 STUDY AREA PER CAPITA INCOME INDICES (1 Study Area Zone Males 15 years and over with income Male Females 15 years average and over with income income Female average Total Income income ($Millions) 2001 Total Population (2 Per Capita Income (2 Index to the Province Primary Zone 2,859 36,485 3,319 22,835 180 8,049 22,376 90.3 Secondary Zone West 3,531 37,676 3,413 23,906 215 9,049 23,721 95.8 Secondary Zone East 3,914 58,920 3,717 32,756 352 10,239 34,418 139.0 4,217,790 40,900 4,380,770 25,129 282,592 11,410,045 24,767 100.0 Ontario Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) 2) Based on income data obtained from the 2001 Census of Canada. Some figures may not add due to data suppression at the Dissemination Area level. Unadjusted 2001 Census figures used in the calculation of per capita income. TABLE D-2 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS PER CAPITA NFOR EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES (excluding WMC Food component), 2007 2007 Total Retail (1 Sales ($ M) Per Capita Distribution Non-Department Store Distribution Furniture, Home Furnishings & Electronics Building & Outdoor Home Supplies Stores Pharmacies & Personal Care Stores Clothing & Accessories Stores Department Stores General Merchandise Stores (excluding Department Stores and FOR WMC) Miscellaneous Retailers Total NFOR Expenditures (as defined by TER) $10,769.8 $8,608.9 $11,253.7 $9,547.3 $9,827.7 $6,804.1 $7,842.3 $64,653.8 $841 $672 $879 $746 $768 $531 $613 $5,050 16.7% 13.3% 17.4% 14.8% 15.2% 10.5% 12.1% 100.0% 19.3% 15.8% 19.6% 17.2% N/A 13.7% 14.4% 100.0% NFOR Category Adjustments TOTAL NAICS NFOR RETAIL TRADE CATEGORY SALES (Ontario) (2 Estimated FOR WMC sales removed from General Merchandise category Total NFOR Expenditures (as defined by TER) $66,574.4 $1,920.6 $64,653.8 $5,200 $150 $5,050 Non Food Oriented Retail Categories Ontario - Estimated 2007 Population (3 12,803,861 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) Based on full year 2007 retail sales by NAICS category provided by Statistics Canada, Retail Trade, catalogue 63-005-XIE. TER estimate based on previous research published by various analysts. 3) July 2007 estimate based on data provided by Statistics Canada, Demographic Quarterly Statistics. 2) TABLE D-3 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS PER CAPITA FOR STORE EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES, 2007 2007 Food Oriented Retail Categories Supermarkets & Other Grocery Stores Convenience & Specialty Food Stores (2 Total Food Stores Plus WMC Food Store Related Expenditures (3 Total FOR Expenditures (as defined by TER) Ontario - Estimated 2007 Population (4 Annualized Total Retail Sales ($ M) (1 $22,166.0 $3,201.7 $25,367.7 Per Capita Distribution $1,731 $250 $1,981 $150 $2,131 81.2% 11.7% 93.0% 7.0% 100.0% 12,803,861 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. 1) 2) Based on full year 2007 retail sales by NAICS category provided by Statistics Canada, Retail Trade, catalogue 63-005-XIE. The Other Food Stores expenditure category is comprised of convenience stores and specialty food stores such as meat markets, fish and seafood markets, fruit and vegetable markets and other special food stores as defined by Statistics Canada NAICS categories. 3) TER estimate based on previous research published by various analysts. 4) July 2007 estimate based on data provided by Statistics Canada, Demographic Quarterly Statistics. TABLE D-4 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS NAICS DEFINITIONS OF NFOR ITEMS (1 FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS & ELECTRONICS STORES 44211 Furniture Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new, household and office furniture. These establishments may also retail major appliances, home electronics, home furnishings and floor coverings, and may provide interior decorating services. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing custom furniture made on the premises (337, Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing) - retailing office furniture, office equipment and supplies (45321, Office Supplies and Stationery Stores) retailing used household furniture (45331, Used Merchandise Stores) 44221 Floor Covering Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new floor coverings, such as rugs and carpets, vinyl floor coverings, wood floor coverings, and floor tiles, except ceramic. These establishments also typically provide installation and repair services. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - installing, but not retailing, floor coverings (23833,23834, ) - retailing ceramic tiles only or hardwood flooring only (44419, Other Building Material Dealers) 44229 Other Home Furnishings Stores US This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing new home furnishings, such as window treatments, kitchen and tableware, bedding and linens, brooms and brushes, lamps and shades, and prints and picture frames. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - new furniture retailing (44211, Furniture Stores) - retailing floor coverings (44221, Floor Covering Stores) - providing interior decorating services, but not retailing home furnishings (54141, Interior Design Services) 44312 Computer and Software Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new computers, computer peripherals, pre-packaged software, game software and related products. These establishments may also retail used computer equipment and replacement parts and accessories, and provide repair services. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing electronic toys, such as television (TV) games and hand-held games (45112, Hobby, Toy and Game Stores) - repairing, without retailing, computers (81121, Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance) 44311 Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new household appliances, home audio and video equipment, and other electronic products. These establishments may also retail used electronics and appliances, provide repair services, and retail computers and computer software. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - computer, computer peripheral equipment and software retailing (44312, Computer and Software Stores) - electronic toy retailing (45112, Hobby, Toy and Game Stores) - retailing used household appliances (45331, Used Merchandise Stores) - repairing, without retailing, televisions or other electronic products (81121, Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance) 44313 Camera and Photographic Supplies Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new cameras, photographic equipment and photographic supplies. These establishments ma also retail used cameras and photographic equipment, and replacement parts and accessories, and provide repair and film developing services. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - video camera retailing (44311, Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores) - repairing, without retailing, photographic equipment (81121, Electronic and Precision Equipment Repair and Maintenance) - commercially developing film and photographic prints; one-hour film developing (81292, Photo Finishing Services) Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System. These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b 1) TABLE D-4 (continued) TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS NAICS DEFINITIONS OF NFOR ITEMS (1 BUILDING & OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORES 44411 Home Centres US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of home repair and improvement materials and supplies, such as lumber, doors and windows, plumbing goods, electrical goods, floor coverings, tools, housewares, hardware, paint and wallpaper, and lawn and garden equipment and supplies. The merchandise lines are normally arranged in separate sections. These establishments may provide installation and repair services for the merchandise they 44413 Hardware Stores US This industry comprises establishments, known as hardware stores, primarily engaged in retailing a general line of basic hardware items, such as tools and builders hardware. These establishments may sell additional product lines, such as paint, housewares and garden supplies, that are not normally arranged in separate departments. 44412 Paint and Wallpaper Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing paint, wallpaper and related supplies. 44419 Other Building Material Dealers US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of building materials. These establishments may provide installation services in addition to retailing. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing a general line of home repair and improvement materials and supplies (44411, Home Centres) - paint and wallpaper retailing (44412, Paint and Wallpaper Stores) - retailing a general line of hardware items (44413, Hardware Stores) 44421 Outdoor Power Equipment Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing outdoor power equipment. These establishments also retail replacement parts and may provide repair services. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - repairing, without retailing, outdoor power equipment (81141, Home and Garden Equipment and Appliance Repair and Maintenance) 44422 Nursery Stores and Garden Centres US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing nursery and garden products, such as trees, shrubs, plants, seeds, bulbs and sod, that are predominantly grown elsewhere. These establishments may provide landscaping services. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - growing and retailing nursery stock (11142, Nursery and Floriculture Production) - wholesaling new or used farm, lawn and garden machinery, equipment and parts (41711, Farm, Lawn and Garden Machinery and Equipment WholesalerDistributors) - providing landscaping services (56173, Landscaping Services) Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System. These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b 1) TABLE D-4 (continued) TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS NAICS DEFINITIONS OF NFOR ITEMS (1 PHARMACIES & PERSONAL CARE STORES 44611 Pharmacies and Drug Stores US This industry comprises establishments, known as pharmacies and drug stores, primarily engaged in retailing prescription or non-prescription drugs and medicines. These establishments also typically retail snacks, cosmetics, personal hygiene products, greeting cards and stationery, and health aids, and may also retail confectionery, tobacco products, novelties and giftware, and cameras and photographic supplies. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing food supplement products, such as vitamins, nutrition supplements and body enhancing supplements (44619, Other Health and Personal Care Stores) 44612 Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies and Perfume Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing cosmetics, perfumes, toiletries and personal grooming products. 44613 Optical Goods Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing and fitting prescription eyeglasses and contact lenses. These establishments may or may not grind lenses to order on the premises. Establishments primarily engaged in retailing non-prescription sunglasses are also included. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - lens grinding without retailing (33911, Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing) - operating a private or group practice of optometry (62132, Offices of Optometrists) 44619 Other Health and Personal Care Stores US This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing health and personal care items. Establishments primarily engaged in retailing health and personal care items, such as vitamin supplements, hearing aids, and medical equipment and supplies are included. Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System. 1) These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b TABLE D-4 (continued) TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS NAICS DEFINITIONS OF NFOR ITEMS (1 CLOTHING & ACCESSORIES STORES 44811 Men's Clothing Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new, men's and boys', ready-to-wear clothing. These establishments may also provide alterations on the garments they sell. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing men's custom clothing made on the premises (3152, Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing) - retailing ready-to-wear clothing for both genders and all age groups (44814, Family Clothing Stores) - retailing men's and boys' clothing accessories (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores) - retailing a specialized line of apparel, such as raincoats, leather coats, fur apparel and swimwear (44819, Other Clothing Stores) 44812 Women's Clothing Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new, women's, ready-to-wear clothing, including maternity wear. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing women's custom clothing made on the premises (3152, Cut and Sew Clothing Manufacturing) - retailing ready-to-wear clothing for both genders and all age groups (44814, Family Clothing Stores) - retailing women's clothing accessories (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores) - retailing a specialized line of clothing, such as bridal gowns, raincoats, leather apparel, fur clothing and swimwear (44819, Other Clothing Stores) 44813 Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new, children's and infants', ready-to-wear clothing. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing ready-to-wear clothing for both genders and all age groups (44814, Family Clothing Stores) - retailing children's and infants', clothing accessories (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores) 44814 Family Clothing Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new, ready-to-wear clothing for men, women and children, without specializing in sales for an individual gender or age group. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing new, men's and boys', ready-to-wear clothing (44811, Men's Clothing Stores) - retailing new, women's, ready-to-wear clothing (44812, Women's Clothing Stores) - retailing children's and infants', ready-to-wear clothing (44813, Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores) - retailing specialized clothing, such as raincoats, bridal gowns, leather apparel, fur clothing and swimwear (44819, Other Clothing Stores) 44819 Other Clothing Stores US This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of new clothing. 44815 Clothing Accessories Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing a single or general line of new clothing accessories. 44821 Shoe Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing all types of new footwear. These establishments may also retail shoe-care products. 44831 Jewellery Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing jewellery, sterling and plated silverware, and watches and clocks. These establishments may provide services such as cutting and mounting stones and jewellery repair. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing costume jewellery (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores) 44832 Luggage and Leather Goods Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing luggage, briefcases, trunks and related products, and establishments engaged in retailing a line of leather items. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing a single or general line of leather and non-leather clothing accessories (44815, Clothing Accessories Stores) - retailing leather coats and other leather clothing articles (44819, Other Clothing Stores) Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System. These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b 1) TABLE D-4 (continued) TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS NAICS DEFINITIONS OF NFOR ITEMS (1 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES 45211 Department Stores US This industry comprises establishments, known as department stores, primarily engaged in retailing a wide range of products, with each merchandise line constituting a separate department within the store. Selected departments may be operated by separate establishments, on a concession basis. Exclusion(s): - warehouse-style stores engaged in retailing a general line of grocery items in combination with a general line of non-grocery items (45291, Warehouse Clubs and Superstores) 45291 Warehouse Clubs and Superstores US This industry comprises establishments, known as warehouse clubs, superstores or supercentres, primarily engaged in retailing a general line of grocery items in combination with a general line of non-grocery items, and typically selling grocery items in larger formats. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing a general line of grocery items (44511, Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores) - retailing a general line of merchandise in department stores (45211, Department Stores) 45299 All Other General Merchandise Stores US This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new merchandise. Establishments known as home and auto supplies stores, catalogue showrooms, agricultural co-op stores, variety stores and country general stores are included. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - automotive parts retailing (44131, Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores) - retailing merchandise in catalogue showrooms, without stock (45411, Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses) Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System. These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b 1) TABLE D-4 (continued) TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS NAICS DEFINITIONS OF NFOR ITEMS (1 MISCELLANEOUS RETAILERS 45111 Sporting Goods Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new sporting goods. These establishments may also retail used sporting goods, and provide repair services. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - camper and camping trailer retailing (44121, Recreational Vehicle Dealers) - snowmobile, motorized bicycle and motorized golf cart retailing (44122, Motorcycle, Boat and Other Motor Vehicle Dealers) - athletic shoe retailing (44821, Shoe Stores) - repairing or servicing, without selling, sporting goods (81149, Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance) 45112 Hobby, Toy and Game Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new toys, games, and hobby and craft supplies. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing software, including game software (44312, Computer and Software Stores) - retailing artists' supplies or collectors' items, such as coins, stamps, autographs and cards (45399, All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers) 45113 Sewing, Needlework and Piece Goods Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new sewing supplies, fabrics, patterns, yarns and other needlework accessories. These store may also retail sewing machines. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - sewing machine retailing (44311, Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores) 45114 Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new musical instruments, sheet music and related supplies. These establishments may also rent and repair musical instruments. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing musical recordings (45122, Pre-Recorded Tape, Compact Disc and Record Stores) - renting, without retailing, musical instruments (53229, Other Consumer Goods Rental) - repairing, without retailing, musical instruments (81149, Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance) 45121 Book Stores and News Dealers US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new books, newspapers, magazines and other periodicals. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - selling newspapers, magazines, and other periodicals via electronic shopping, mail-order or direct sale (454, Non-Store Retailers) - delivering newspapers to homes (45439, Other Direct Selling Establishments) 45122 Pre-Recorded Tape, Compact Disc and Record Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new audio and video recordings in any format\medium. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - computer software retailing (44312, Computer and Software Stores) - retailing pre-recorded tapes, compact discs and records by mail-order (45411, Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses) 45311 Florists US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing cut flowers, floral arrangements, and potted plants purchased from others. These establishments typically prepare the arrangements they sell. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing flowers or nursery stock grown on the premises (11142, Nursery and Floriculture Production) - retailing trees, shrubs, plants, seeds, bulbs and sod grown elsewhere (44422, Nursery Stores and Garden Centres) 45321 Office Supplies and Stationery Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing office supplies or a combination of office supplies, equipment and furniture. Establishments primarily engaged in retailing stationery and school supplies are also included. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - office furniture retailing (44211, Furniture Stores) - typewriter retailing (44311, Appliance, Television and Other Electronics Stores) - computer retailing (44312, Computer and Software Stores) - greeting card retailing (45322, Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores) Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System. These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b 1) TABLE D-4 (continued) TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS NAICS DEFINITIONS OF NFOR ITEMS (1 45322 Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new gifts, novelty merchandise, souvenirs, greeting cards, seasonal and holiday decorations, and curios. These establishments may also retail stationery. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - stationery retailing (45321, Office Supplies and Stationery Stores) 45331 Used Merchandise Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing used merchandise. Establishments primarily engaged in retailing antiques are also included. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - used automobile retailing (44112, Used Car Dealers) - used RV retailing (44121, Recreational Vehicle Dealers) - used motorcycle and boat retailing (44122, Motorcycle, Boat and Other Motor Vehicle Dealers) - used tire retailing (44132, Tire Dealers) - used mobile home retailing (45393, Mobile Home Dealers) - retailing a general line of used merchandise on an auction basis (45399, All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers) - operating pawnshops (52229, Other Non-Depository Credit Intermediation) 45391 Pet and Pet Supplies Stores US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing pets, pet food and pet supplies. These establishments may also provide pet grooming services. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - providing veterinary services (54194, Veterinary Services) - providing pet grooming and boarding services (81291, Pet Care (except Veterinary) Services) 45392 Art Dealers US This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing original and limited edition art works. Establishments primarily engaged in the exhibition of native art and art carvings for retail sale are also included. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing art reproductions (44229, Other Home Furnishings Stores) - operating non-commercial art galleries (71211, Museums) 45393 Mobile Home Dealers This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing new and used mobile homes, parts and equipment. These establishments may provide installation services in addition to retailing the homes. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - motor home, camper and travel trailer retailing (44121, Recreational Vehicle Dealers) - retailing prefabricated buildings and kits (44419, Other Building Material Dealers) 45399 All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers US This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of merchandise, such as tobacco and tobacco products; artists' supplies; collectors' items, such as coins, stamps, autographs and cards; beer and wine making supplies; swimming pool supplies and accessories; religious goods; and monuments and tombstones. Establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of new and used merchandise on an auction basis are also included. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - auctioning new and used merchandise on a fee basis (56199, All Other Support Services) Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System. These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b 1) TABLE D-5 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS NAICS DEFINTIONS OF FOR ITEMS (1 44511 Supermarkets & Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores This industry comprises establishments, known as supermarkets and grocery stores, primarily engaged in retailing a general line of food, such as canned, dry and frozen foods; fresh fruits and vegetables; fresh and prepared meats, fish, poultry, dairy products, baked products and snack foods. These establishments also typically retail a range of non-food household products, such as household paper products, toiletries and non-prescription drugs. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing a limited line of food and convenience items (44512, Convenience Stores) - retailing prescription drugs in a supermarket, on a concession basis (44611, Pharmacies and Drug Stores) - retailing a general line of food products as well as a general line of non-food products (45291, Warehouse Clubs and Superstores) 44512 Convenience Stores This industry comprises establishments, known as convenience stores, primarily engaged in retailing a limited line of convenience items that generally includes milk, bread, soft drinks, snacks, tobacco products, newspapers and magazines. These establishments may retail a limited line of canned goods, dairy products, household paper and cleaning products, as well as alcoholic beverages, and provide related services, such as lottery ticket sales and video rental. Exclusion(s): - convenience stores that sell gasoline (44711, Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores) Exclusion(s): - convenience stores that sell gasoline (44711, Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores) 44521 Meat Markets This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing fresh, frozen, or cured meats and poultry. Delicatessens primarily engaged in retailing fresh meat are included. 44522 Fish and Seafood Markets This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing fresh, frozen, or cured fish and seafood products. 44523 Fruit and Vegetable Markets This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in retailing fresh fruits and vegetables. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - growing vegetables and fruits and selling them at roadside stands (11121,1113, ) 44529 Other Specialty Food Stores This industry comprises establishments, not classified to any other industry, primarily engaged in retailing specialty foods. Dairy product stores, baked goods stores, and candy, nut and confectionery stores are included. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: - retailing candy and confectionery products made on premises, not for immediate consumption (3113, Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing) - retailing goods baked on the premises, not for immediate consumption (31181, Bread and Bakery Product Manufacturing) retailing food for immediate consumption (e.g., donut and bagel shops) (722, Food Services and Drinking Places) 45291 Warehouse Clubs and Superstores This industry comprises establishments, known as warehouse clubs, superstores or supercentres, primarily engaged in retailing a general line of grocery items in combination with a general line of non-grocery items, and typically selling grocery items in larger formats. Exclusion(s): Establishments primarily engaged in: retailing a general line of grocery items (44511, Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores) - retailing a general line of merchandise in department stores (45211, Department Stores) Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. NAICS represents the North American Industrial Classification System. These definitions are provided by Statistics Canada on the website: http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Standard/spec-aggreg/trade-2002/trade-retail02.htm#b 1) TABLE D-6 TOWN OF ARNPRIOR RETAIL MARKET DEMAND AND IMPACT ANALYSIS RETAIL AND SERVICE INVENTORY CLASSIFICATION CODES RETAIL/SERVICE CATEGORIES NAICS Code TER CODES FOOD & BEVERAGE: Supermarket & Other Grocery Stores Superstores Jug Milk Meat Market Fish & Seafood Green Grocer Bakery Candy/Nut Cheese Delicatessen Other Food 44511 44511 44512 44521 44522 44523 44529 44529 44529 44529 44529 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 GENERAL MERCHANDISE Discount Department Store Traditional Department Stores Warehouse Membership Clubs (e.g. Costco, Sam's Club) General Merchandise (e.g. Assortment of Dollar Stores) General Store Mail Order (e.g., Sears) Variety Home and Auto Supply Stores (eg Canadian Tire) 45211 45211 45291 45299 45299 45299 45299 45299 21 21 22 23 23 23 23 24 CLOTHING & ACCESSORIES Mens/Boys Wear Ladies Wear Childrens Wear Family Wear Bridal Furrier Hosiery Lingerie Maternity Millinery Unisex Wear Accessories/Other Apparel (e.g., Ties) Childrens Shoes Family Shoes Ladies Shoes Mens Shoes Jewellery Luggage/Leather Goods 44811 44812 44813 44814 44819 44819 44819 44819 44819 44819 44819 44815 44821 44821 44821 44821 44831 44832 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 37 37 37 37 38 39 FURNITURE, HOME FURNISHINGS & ELECTRONICS Furniture/Appliance Floor Coverings China/Glassware/Kitchenware Drapery/Blinds Lamps & Lighting Fixtures Linen/Bath Other Household Furnishings (e.g. picture frames, etc.) Fireplace Accessories Vacuums Appliance TV/Radio/Stereo Computer and related incl. software Camera/Photo Supply 44211 44221 44229 44229 44229 44229 44229 44229 44229 44311 44311 44312 44313 40 41 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 44 45 PHARMACIES & PERSONAL CARE Drug Stores Cosmetics Optician Other Health & Personal Care Stores 44611 44612 44613 44619 50 51 52 53 44411 44413 44412 44419 44419 60 61 62 63 63 64 65 66 BUILDING AND OUTDOOR HOME SUPPLIES STORES Home Improvement Centres Hardware/Electrical Supply Paint/Glass/Wallpaper Electrical wiring supplies & equipment Plumbing, heating, and a/c eq. & supplies MISC. Home Supplies (e.g. windows/doors/plumbing/etc.) Lawn & Garden Centre Outdoor Power Equipment 44422 44421 Source: TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. Based on TER's interpretation of NAICS retail trade and service category classifications 1) RETAIL/SERVICE CATEGORIES NAICS Code TER CODES MISCELLANEOUS RETAILERS Sporting Goods Toy/Hobby Fabric Wool Musical Instruments Record/Tape/CDs Florist Stationery and Office Supplies Gift/Novelty/Souvenir Second-Hand Stores Pet & Pet Supply Art Gallery & Artists' Supply Book / Stationery Antiques Sewing Machines Wine Making Coin / Stamp Tobacco Greeting Cards Bicycle Other Miscellaneous Retailers 45111 45112 45113 45113 45114 45122 45311 45321 45322 45331 45391 45392 45321 45331 45113 45399 45112 45399 45322 45111 45399 70 71 72 72 73 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 BEER, WINE & LIQUOR Liquor Beer Wine 44531 44531 44531 95 96 97 SERVICES: EATING & DRINKING Restaurants (Licenced) Restaurants (Not Licenced) Fast Food Donuts/Cookies/Muffins Ice Cream/Yogurt Cafeterias Specialty Coffee 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 SERVICES: PERSONAL Beauty/Hair Barber Dry Cleaning (Plant) Dry Cleaning (Pickup) Laundry Shoe Repair Travel Agent Photographer 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 FINANCIAL AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES Bank/Trust/Credit Union Real Estate Insurance Brokerage Accounting 120 127 128 130 131 SERVICES: OTHER Video Tape Rental Health/Tanning Salon Movie Theatre/Cinema Amusement Arcade Bowling/Billiards Medical/Dental Legal Post Office Library Other Service 121 122 123 124 125 126 129 132 133 134 160 VACANT