The Sustainability Crisis

The Sustainability Crisis
What we can all do about it
The Start
The Education
The Career
The Epiphany
The Wake Up Call
The Career Change
The Mistake?
Global
Warming
Impact
Exaggerated
Climate Scientists Faked Data
Facts Debunk Global Warming Alarmism
UN’s Blunder on
Glaciers Exposed
Climate Science
on Thin Ice
Is Our Climate Changing?
Climate Change is Completely Natural
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
SOURCE: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climate Data Center
0
Climate Change is Completely Natural
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
SOURCE: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climate Data Center
0
The Current Episode is Different
Today’s CO2
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
SOURCE: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climate Data Center
0
The Current Episode is Different
Projected Emissions for 2050
Today’s CO2
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
SOURCE: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climate Data Center
0
Did Global Warming Stop in 1998?
SOURCE: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climate Data Center
No! The Ten Hottest Years on Record
Have All Occurred in Last 12 Years
SOURCE: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climate Data Center
And it has been getting hotter even
faster in Australia
SOURCE: Australian Bureau of Meterology “State of the Climate” 2010
Glaciers are Melting
Upsala Glacier, Argentina
1928
2004
Photo: © Greenpeace/De Agostini/Beltra
Glaciers in the Himalayas are Melting
Glacier AX010, Nepal
May 1978
Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University
Glaciers in the Himalayas are Melting
Glacier AX010, Nepal
Today
Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University
Arctic Sea Ice is Melting Fast
Loss of Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2007
And our rainfall patterns have changed
dramatically
SOURCE: Australian Bureau of Meterology “State of the Climate” 2010
Is this Due to Human
Activity?
Warming During Past 150 Years is
Mostly Human Induced
Human Induced Factors
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Natural
Factors
While Global Surface Temperatures
are Increasing
Stratospheric Temperatures are
Decreasing
What is Expected to
Happen in the Future?
Projected Temperatures in Australia
Projected Rainfall in Australia
Extremes in Australia
Murray Darling Basin
August 2007
Hunter Valley
June 2007
Bushfire Risk
Photo: AP
Species Loss
Species Loss
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
160,000
B.C.
100,000
B.C.
10,000
B.C.
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1
1,000 2,000
B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. A.D. A.D. A.D.
2,150
A.D.
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Projections to 2150, (United Nations, NY, 1998).
Dengue Fever in Australia
SOURCE: AMA-ACF (2006) – Climate Change Health Impacts in Australia: Effects of Dramatic CO2 Reductions
Economic Consequences
Road
construction
&
maintenance
• Changes in rates of deterioration
• Inundation of roads in coastal areas
Stormwater/
drainage
•
Buildings
•
•
•
Coastal
Infrastructure
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Inflow and infiltration into wastewater
networks.
Existing flood defences exceeded
Drainage capacity exceeded
Changes in mean and peak stream and
river flows.
Changes in building heating/cooling
Increased damage from bushfires.
Increased damage from wind, rain, hail,
flood, storm events
Higher rates of building deterioration
Inundation of, coastal infrastructure and
utilities,
Damage to council-managed marinas
and boat ramps.
Erosion of seawalls, jetties and other
coastal defences.
Economic Consequences
Tourism
Agriculture
•
Loss of tourism industry associated with
Great Barrier Reef
•
Loss of snow-based tourism
•
An end to irrigated agriculture in the
Murray Darling Basin
What if the IPCC is
Wrong?
There are Four Scenarios
Yes
No
Do Nothing
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Take Action
Our Response
Is the IPCC Correct?
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 1: The IPPC is right and
we take no action
Scenario 2: The IPPC is wrong and
we take no action
Scenario 3: The IPPC is right and
we take action
Scenario 4: The IPPC is wrong but
we still take action
Addressing Climate
Change will address
other issues
Our Ecological Footprint
Wastefulness
Resource Depletion
Nickel Zinc Copper Bauxite Platinum Group Metals Lead Tin Tungsten Iron Ore Gas Oil Years to Exhaustion 30 15 20 56 58 16 12 23 60 58 40 Overpopulation
World Population
2050 – 9.1 Billion
9
8
7
2006 – 6.5 Billion
6
Billions
5
4
1966 – 3.4 Billion
3
2
1
First Modern Humans
1776 – 1 Billion
250 Million
0
160,000
B.C.
Source: United Nations
100,000
B.C.
10,000
B.C.
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C.
1
A.D.
1,000
A.D.
2,000
A.D.
2,150
A.D.
Disconnected Communities
The opportunities on the upside are
enormous
This is a Question of Risk
Unlikely
Likely
Low
Low Risk
Medium Risk
High
Impact
Likelihood of Occurrence
Medium Risk
Critical Risk
Are we willing to take the risk that the
IPCC & National Science Academies are
wrong?
Depressed Yet?
My Motto:
Don’t get depressed. Do something!
What I did
Measured my ecological footprint
Set SMART goals
Reduced my footprint
Helped others reduce their
footprint
My Ecological Footprint 4 Years Ago
Carbon Footprint
18%
8%
51%
Food Footprint
23%
Housing Footprint
Goods and Services
Footprint
The End Result?
2010
2006
Carbon Footprint
Food Footprint
Housing Footprint
Goods and
Services Footprint
What You Can Do
Measure your ecological footprint
Set SMART goals
Reduce your footprint
Help others reduce their footprint
Helping 200,000 West Australians to take
action in their homes and workplaces
Timing
Ambassador
Recruitment
(Mar-Apr)
Days of Change
Pledge Month
(May)
Celebration
(Jun)
Ongoing Support
Period (Jun-Feb)
People pledging to change
The power of social networking
WA-Wide Media Campaign
Media is just one element
Friends
Community Clubs
& Groups
E-Mail & Surveys
Family
Workplace
Daughter’s School
Media
Shop Counters
Changing social norms
Lisa Scaffidi
John Worsfold
Penny Wong
James Lush
Eoin Cameron
Lord Mayor
WCE Senior Coach
MP
ABC Broadcaster
ABC Broadcaster
Sabrina Hahn
Mark Barnaba
Horticulturalist
Chairman WCE
Peter Holland
Rosemary Stanton
Ex ABC Broadcaster
Nutritionist
Garry Hunt
CEO Joondalup CC
How do we know it works?
Does it work?
York Results
Implications for WA
•21% of population
•445,000 people
•$66,000 saved
•$44 million saved
•25 pledges for Natural
Power
•Require one new wind
farm
•542,000kg CO2 saved
•Equivalent to 100,000
cars off the road
permanently
Don’t take it from us…
Sign up as an Ambassador Tonight!
www.daysofchange.org
The Road Ahead
Thanks!
Gary Warden
[email protected]
http://daysofchange.org