Requirements for Sustained Industrial Market Growth
Transcription
Requirements for Sustained Industrial Market Growth
As a result of the frozen capital market and subsequent limited inventory, Denver’s investment sales market stopped short in 2009, remained sluggish in 1Q10 and improved slightly in 2Q10. Year-to-date sales total 1,483,503 square feet with a total volume of $192,622,301. The development pipeline has diminished to just under 350,000 square feet under construction and two projects, 1800 Larimer in the CBD and the new FBI Headquarters in the Northeast submarket, were delivered this quarter. The only major project under construction is Central Park Tower in the Northwest submarket. Ross Research believes that in 2Q10, the trends of positive absorption, increased leasing activity and signs of an improving labor market signal that the market is on the path to recovery. Office Market Balance 25.00% 4,000,000 15.00% 0 Supply Source: Ross Research Services 10 2Q 09 20 20 20 20 20 Absorption 08 5.00% 07 -4,000,000 06 10.00% 05 -2,000,000 Vacancy Vacancy 20.00% 2,000,000 04 Denver is nicely positioned to take immediate advantage of an improving job market, ultimately sustaining the industrial market growth that is already underway. The Federal Reserve stated that industrial production rose 1.2 percent in May; and factories, the single biggest contributor to industrial activity, stepped up production 0.9 percent — the third straight monthly increase. Whether this growth continues remains to be seen, but the groundwork is in place, with all signs pointing up. Throughout 2009, median asking rates decreased. However, most submarkets posted little or no change from 4Q09 to 2Q10, indicating that rental rates are stabilizing. 20 Home building accounts for about 15 percent of the GDP. In the industrial market, however, the percentage of warehouses used for distribution of products for the home building business is even greater. Again, with an improving job market, new home sales and home construction will increase significantly. The SES submarket also expanded this quarter, posting absorption of 146,228 square feet, which was due mainly to this quarter’s large move-ins by Catholic Health Initiatives and Baxa Corporation. Vacancy is 20.06 percent, which is down from 20.21 percent at 2Q09. 03 Consumer spending, which relates directly to creation of jobs and consumer confidence, accounts for Jeff McClintock over 70 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Tight credit, flat wages and a 9.5 percent unemployment rate continue to keep the lid on consumption. Government stimulus in the form of temporary tax reductions, tax credits for first time home-buyers, incentives for buying energy-efficient products Matt McClintock and cash-for-clunker programs all attribute to upward blips in consumption, but longterm sustained consumption growth requires job growth. Get unemployment down to 7 percent or less and consumer confidence and spending are sure to pick up dramatically. The CBD ended the quarter with solid absorption of 184,480 square feet, bringing year-to-date absorption to 277,054 square feet and is poised for greater expansion in the latter half of the year as Xcel completes its move into 1800 Larimer and numerous GSA tenants move into short-term leases while the Byron G. Rogers Federal Courthouse undergoes extensive renovations. Vacancy stands at 19.07 percent. 20 From tax write-offs to home-buyer housing incentives, we’ve seen a lot of effort to improve our economy over the past few months. Some of it has helped the industrial market; some hasn’t affected it at all. There’s no doubt, however, that for sustained improvement in the industrial sector, two things need to happen: 1) increase in consumer spending, and 2) increase in home building. j u ly 2 0 1 0 As the second quarter of 2010 comes to a close, it is clear that the worst is behind us both in terms of the local economy and the demand shock that created a significant downturn in the Denver office market. The fundamentals of the office market have shown steady, albeit slow, improvement particularly in the core Central Business District (CBD) and Southeast Suburban (SES) submarkets. In 2Q10, the overall market posted positive absorption, decreased vacancy, increased leasing activity and stable rental rates. 2Q10 absorption was 498,432 square feet, which brings year-todate absorption to 708,485 square feet. Overall vacancy decreased slightly from 20.00 percent at 4Q09 to 19.74 percent. 02 Jeff McClintock and Matt McClintock N um b e r 3 By Lauren Douglas Director of Research 20 Requirements for Sustained Industrial Market Growth Volum e 1 5 Denver Office Market Activity 01 market perspective IE W 20 C o mm e rcial r e al e stat e q uart e rl y Square Feet V Frederick Ross company c o m m e r c i a l r e a l e s t at e V Frederick Ross company IE W In this issue Office Market Activity............................. 1 Real Estate Transactions...................... 3 Real Estate Opportunities..................... 4 Apartment Market Activity..................... 6 There are times when more is simply better. Commercial real estate transactions are complicated. This is the time for more, not less. You need the power and the pull of the full-service leader. Frederick Ross Company. People................................................... 7 Industrial Market Activity....................... 8 Retail Market Activity............................. 8 The VIEW is the region’s most comprehensive commercial real estate newsletter for over a decade. other ross publications: WEE THE ROSS THE ROSS NOVEMBERK O F 17, 2008 Hot Sheet listings WEEK OF OFFICE PLUG-AND-P LAY SUBLEASE 5970 Greenwood OFFICE Plaza Boulevard, • 8,000 represent select HOT HOSHEET T SHEET Ross opportunitie Contact us for complete sale and lease listings. NOVEMBER 17, 2008 Hot Sheet listings represent select Ross opportunities. s. Contact OFFICE OFFICE us for complete sale and lease listings. - SUBLEASE PLUG-AND-PLAY HISTORIC OFFICE SPACE ABOVE JET RSF available Greenwood Village • Sublease18,475 HISTORIC rate:Boulevard, immediately $13.00/SF 5970 Greenwood Greenwood Village 1612 Wazee Street,OFFICE DenverSPACE ABOVE • Phones,Plaza 1612 Wazee cabling Street, Denver - 18,475 RSF available immediately SF suites and 150- JET • 8,000and • 2,685-4,045 • 2,685-4,045 furniture 300 SF executive suites rate: $13.00/SF • Sublease SF suites and • Flexible 300 space executive rate:SF$25.00/SF • Lease • Phones, conficabling • Lease suites 150gurations rate: full service and • furniture Board room full service $25.00/SF creative atmosphere in the heart of LoDo • Fun, space for 12 people, • Flexible SUB training • Fun, room for creative SUBLE LEAS confi gurations space with lots of nearby amenities • Historic atmosphere 20 people eat-in • Historic kitchen and large ASE E in Station space the heart of • Elevator room for 12 people, 16th Street Mallwith nearlots Union • Board • On • On LoDo 16th identity of • Sublease training room for 20 people and large Mall Contact Darrin Street Revious or Colleennearby Mindeamenities Contact term through Darrin Reviousnear Union Station eat-in kitchen • Common or Colleen conference March 31, 2011 Elevator identity • Contact Minde room in building term through March 31, 2011 • SubleaseAndrew Blaustein Common conference roomorinJamie building • QWEST Gard BUILDING: Contact Andrew Blaustein or Jamie Gard SUMMIT SHOPPING CENTER SUMMITSQUARE 38TH FLOOR 1801 California SQUARE SHOPPING SUITE 8410-8472 Westminster Street, Suite 8410-8472Federal Blvd., Denver, CO CENTER 3840, Federal Blvd., • • 1,200-1,473 • 2,011BUILDING: 1,200-1,473 SF available QWEST 38TH FLOOR SUITE Westminster SF available SF available rate: •• Inline • Sublease Inlinelease 1801 California Street, now Suite 3840, lease $15.00-17.00/SF $15.00-17.0 rate: NNN Denver, CO rate: $24.00/SF full service 0/SF WellsNNN Fargo, • Join •• Sublease Join Safeway, 2,011 SFavailable available now Safeway, Wells Baskin Robbins, Taco Bell, Baskin Fargo, now Sublease rate: $24.00/SF • on 38th floor Robbins, Blackjack Pizza and Tacoothers Blackjack • Furniture full service Bell, Pizza and with available Signaled intersection • • Signaled • •1 Sublease others available now large conference excellentintersection visibility just excellent • 6 offi on 38th floor with room ces including northofofvisibility Highway 36 and 2 miles west of I-25 just north Furniture available •executive one large Highway space Free-standing pad36building available 2009 • •Free-standin • Kitchenette and 2 miles • 1 large conference room pad building west of I-25 Contact Tom gMullinix or Bob Bramble Contact Contact ces including one large • 6 offi SUB available Tom Jane Mullinix or LEAS Rubley 2009 executive space Grubich Bob Bramble or Jon TiltonSUBLEEASE • Kitchenette GRANITE TOWER: Jane 20TH Rubley Grubich or Jon Tilton 1099Contact FLOOR 18th Street, Suite 2010, SUITE • 5,822-RSF Denver suite available 2.045 2.045 ACRES AVAILABLE • High-end ACRES ENTITLED AND GRANITEfiTOWER: 20TH FLOOR SUITE AVAILABLE FOR FOR SALESALE in place 1099 18thnishes Street, and Suitefurniture 2010, Denver NWCNWC Atchinson Way and • Incredible ENTITLE READY FOR Atchinson • 5,822-RSF suite available D AND western East Quincy East Quincy Way Avenue, and Aurora • First• class viewsand furniture High-end finishes building • Sale• price: Sale Avenue, price: Aurora DEVELOPMENT READY renovations upgrades in place FOR and completed $800,000 $800,000 • NEW • Incredible Dazbog western views DEVELOPMENT ($8.98/SF) ($8.98/SF) open• on-site First classCoffee building nowupgrades and • Great Great traffic • traffi • Convenient renovations completed c CBD location counts counts • Nearby Dazbog Coffee now • NEW amenities • Ideal•for Ideal for include The Carlton open on-site Denver, Ritzoffice, bank, office, bank, FORZA and Performanc CBD location • Convenient EAST BANK restaurant, restaurant, e Club andFitness • Competitive SHOPPING AUG-SEPT • Nearby Elway’sThe RitzCENTER 2009 include leaseamenities daycare daycare rate Contact Nathan EAST BANK Carlton Denver, FORZA Fitness Transactions SHOPPING or multi-or multiin Review Johnson, Club and Elway’s Pete Staab and Performance CENTER listings represent or Jamie SIte familyselect family lease rate in Review listings represent select • Competitive AUG-SEPT 2009 Gard Transactions Ross transactions. Contact us for complete sale and lease listings. RETAIL RETAIL The Ross Hot Sheet highlights significant current leasing opportunities. LAND LAND rd WAY S AtcHInSon WAY Ross transactions. Contact S AtcHInSon S PArker S PArker rd Transactionin inReview Transactions s Review SALES Contact Contact Contact Nathan Johnson, VISIT Pete Wycoff STEEL Pete Wycoff LEASES www.f COMPANY Pete Staab or Jamie Gard rederic kross.c AURORA FACILITYPURCHASES SALES LEASES FOR NEW POLICY om for complete e QUIncY AVe SIte MANVILLEusPLAZA ACTIVITY sale and Two recent renewals occurred at 717 lease listings. MANVILLE e QUIncY AVe PLAZA Omaha-based 17th Street downtown ACTIVITY Twoinrecent Information STUDIES SIGNS PLANT contained renewals herein, while POLICY STUDIES SIGNS NEW LEASE Denver. 17th NICE, a leading HINES not guaranteed, NEW AT BUILDING, LEASE Street in ONCORoccurred iswhile at 717 fromnot Information contained herein, guaranteed, is from sources we believe reliable. INTERNATIONAL sources downtown NOW we company Policy believe LEASED HINES BUILDING, 85% Denver. reliable. 85% LEASEDATmulti-media StudiesNOW NICE, Inc., leader 52,000square-foot renewedmulti-media its lease for a leading administrative Policy Studies Inc., a leadera in Omaha-based steelfacility company, in ONCOR company INTERNATION with plansSteel, Inc.last month 30,775renewed square feet; and management administrative case case Drake-Williams to open its(DW AL its lease for services first CoBiz 30,775 Financial, Inc. for government-fu management services Colorado Steel) ever purchased a 52,000square feet; manufacturing nded industrial renewed its office lease health and and CoBiz square-foot facility last month plant. The for government-funded property, Financial, human services situated at for 23,773 square feet. Inc. and human services renewed with 26th plansAvenue to openinitsAurora, first 20400 East healthorganizations, its office recently has lease leased 75,474 organizations, recently for 12 acres yardmanufacturing ever fenced Colorado plant. The of and sold Frederick23,773 Ross Company square square feet. forat$320400 of 75,474 leased square feet feet office space million. industrial property, situated East Ross represented is theFrederick exclusive marketing and leasing in Denver’s newest of office space in Denver’s 26th Avenue in Aurora, 12 acres of Ross Company DWhas Hines industrial Steel development agentis for Plaza. Scott Garel, in this the Manville transaction. at 1515 exclusive newest Hines development fenced yard and sold for $3 million. Wynkoop marketing alsoagent of Frederick Ross Company, Street. company and leasing plansWynkoop for Manville at 1515 to move Street. TheThe company Ross representativ Plaza. represented CoBiz in this transaction. into its new also of Frederick Ross represented DW Steel in this Scott quarter plans to move into its new office firstfirst office es: Tyler 2010. Nordling, Ross Company,Garel, represented Reed, Chris industrial transaction. Pete Wycoff quarter 2010. CoBiz in Jeff Castleton, Ross is the Ross representatives: this transaction. exclusive marketing representative Jamie Scott Garel RossGard, Ross is the exclusive marketing and leasing Ross representatives: Tyler Reed, Chris representativ and OSWEGO for leasing 1515 es: Jeff an 8-story for 1515 Wynkoop CREATIVE Jamie Gard, WynkoopStreet, representative Nordling, Pete Wycoff premier office Street, TO OPEN NEW OFFICE IN Scott Garel Castleton, towerininLoDo. an 8-story premier office tower GOLDEN ROTATING ENERGY SERVICES LEASES LoDo. Oswego Ross representativ Creative, a fullROTATING CITY SPACE COMMERCE service es: Jamie Nathan OSWEGO CREATIVE TO OPEN NEW Jamie Gard, advertising ENERGY Ross representatives: Gard, Johnson and Denver-based Energy Services COMMERCE RotatingSERVICES marketing LEASES OFFICE INagency, GOLDEN Nathan Johnson recently SPACE recently leasedCITY 11,400 square feet of Denver-based purchased Oswego Creative, a full1000 10th Rotating MULTIPLE industrial space in Commerce City. The recently Street in Golden TRANSACTIO leased 11,400 Energy Services service advertising and with BANK NS FOR MULTIPLE TRANSACTIONS FOR energy company has already its industrial year. Shallow plans to occupy square occupied OF THE feet of space in next marketing agency, recently Bay Properties, Seven new space at 5303Commerce Vasquez Boulevard. energy this 5,967-squareBANK OF THEWEST WEST transactions company purchased 1000foot 10th Street LLC sold have occurred at has already City. The multiple new space $825,000. office building Seven transactions Bank of the haveoccurred at at 5303 the in Golden with plans to occupy nextfor Ross represented tenant occupied in this its West Colorado Vasquez locations multipleand Bank of the West locations in Boulevard. Wyoming. in year. Shallow Bay Properties, LLC sold Ross industrial transaction. represented Ross represented Colorado and Wyoming. Medical the tenant this 5,967-square-foot industrial leases: the buyeroffice building for in this transaction. transaction. • Two in the office Medical leases: $825,000. new leases Ross representative: Pete Wycoff at•1300 Two Jackson new leases Ross representativ Ross representativ Street e: at in 1300 Jackson Ross represented buyer in the office Golden es:the Roger Simpson, PARTECH RENEWSPete AT Wycoff FLATIRON Jared Leabch in Golden transaction. Office Street PARTECH renewals: PARK RENEWS WEST • Western PARKParTech, FLATIRON OfficeFunding, renewals: leader in WEST Inc., theATindustry Ross representatives: Roger Simpson, SUNNY Inc. 7995 Hampden MTN STORAGE ParTech, • Western Funding,atInc. at 7995 systems E. E. Avenue Inc., the Jared Leabch WAREHOUSE • CBL & BUYS DENVER systems Hampden Avenue and service industry leader Associates FOR $2.15 in Sunny Mountain Management, at 12000 MILLION and • CBLNorth & Associates Management, solutions for service Inc Inc Washington recently purchasedStorage LLC solutions at 12000 North Washington Street in the for hospitality SUNNY MTN STORAGEof BUYS DENVER Thornton Street in the warehouse Denver 3770 E. 40th • The Colorado the hospitality Thornton industry, recently renewed its 20,480WAREHOUSE FOR $2.15atMILLION Ave. in Denver. Center for square-foot Recovery industry, Addiction TheLLC • The square-foot building 90,000&Colorado of Denver Research Center for Addiction recently office lease at Flatiron Park, sold Storage million. Sunny Mountain Line Road for at 7120atE.7120 E. County square-foot Recovery & Research 2425-2555renewed 55th Street in Boulder. its 20,480recently purchased the$2.15 warehouse at in office lease • 1130 SheridanHighlands Ranch County 2425-2555 at Flatiron Line Road in Highlands Ranch Ross represented 3770 E. 40th Ave. in Denver. The 90,000Avenue Park, Ross55th andStreet Dean in Callan & Company Cody,in the building Renewal • 1130 Sheridan in Avenue Cody, WY Boulder. buyer in sold for $2.15 industrialsquare-foot WY and Ross andrepresented the landlord in this this transaction. Dean Callan • 300 South expansion: million. Renewal and expansion: represented & Wolcott transaction. in Casper, the landlord Company Ross representativ Ross represented • 300 South Wolcott inWY Casper, WY transaction. in this Ross represented buyer in this e: Peterthe Bank of the these office Beugg Ross representatives: Joe Heath, West Ross represented Bank ofin theallWest in all of industrial transaction. transactions. of Ross Scott Garel, Don Misner these office transactions. VISIT www.frederickross.com or CALL 303.892.1111 or CALL 303.8 92. 1111 steel company, Drake-William STEEL COMPANY PURCHASES s Steel, Inc. Steel) (DW purchased AURORA FACILITY FOR NEW PLANT a Ross representative: Peter Beugg First Ross representativ representativ es: Joe Heath, Scott Garel, Don Misner es: Roger Leabch Simpson, Ross representatives: Roger Simpson, VISIT www.f QuarterJared 2009 Jared Leabch rederic First Quarter 2009 kross.c om or CALL VISIT www.frederickross.com or CALL 303.892.1111 303.8 92.1111 Information contained herein, while not guaranteed, is from sources Information contained herein, while not guaranteed, is from sources we believe reliable. we believe reliable. ONCOR INTERNATIONAL Research • Marketing Financial Analysis • Consulting Development/Capital OFFICE MARKETREPORT OFFICE MARKET REPOR Brokerage • Management T ONCOR INTERNATION AL The Ross Transactions In Review highlights recent Ross transactions. Ross publishes quarterly Market Reports for office, industrial and retail markets in Denver and Boulder. Contact the editor to subscribe to Ross publications. © 2010 Frederick Ross Company All Rights Reserved Frederick Ross Company 1800 Larimer Street, Suite 1700 Denver, Colorado 80202 phone 303.892.1111 • fax 303.892.6338 email [email protected] www.frederickross.com editor Rachel Chin email [email protected] V IEW Transactions Rivet Software moves headquarters to Denver Rivet Software, Inc., the premier provider of standards-based business reporting and analytics for financial communications, recently relocated its headquarters. The dynamic and fast-growing software company now occupies 31,819 square feet in the office building at 4340 South Monaco Street in Denver. Rivet is the leading XBRL compliance and financial reporting provider in the world, serving more Fortune 500 companies in meeting their SEC filing needs than any other company. Tom Lee, Dann Burke and Jon Tilton of Frederick Ross Company are pleased to have represented Rivet in this transaction. Contact them for additional information. United Launch Alliance relocates and expands headquarters with transactions totaling more than 440,000 square feet 9501 East Panorama Circle 7630 South Chester Street 7670 South Chester Street World-renown space rocket company United Launch Alliance, LLC recently leased over 440,000 square feet of office space for its new Centennial-based headquarters. These transactions effectively relocate and combine the current ULA offices scattered across the Denver Metro area, consolidating them into just one neighborhood. Multiple leases include 144,202 square feet at 9501 East Panorama Circle; 106,213 square feet at 7630 South Chester Street; 34,401 square feet at 7670 South Chester Street; and 167,917 square feet at 7958 South Chester Street. Centennial- based United Launch Alliance is scheduled to phase its workforce into the new Centennial offices by the end of 2011. Nathan Johnson, Pete Staab, Tom Lee and Jeff Castleton of Frederick Ross Company negotiated the above listed transactions on behalf of the landlords. Contact them for more information. 7958 South Chester Street Southpark Office Campus building sells for $875,000 A Denver investment group recently purchased the office building at 8151 Southpark Lane in Littleton from Compass Bank. This 10,298-square-foot medical office building, located in the Southpark Office Campus sold for $875,000. Newly constructed, this single-story, stand-alone office/ medical building in Southpark office campus provides multiple features that attracted the buyer, including a “Core and Shell” build-out, which allowed the buyer to finish space to individual specifications. Located on a high visibility corner location at the intersection of Southpark Lane and West Canal Court, this property provides excellent exposure to tenants. Steve Roesinger and Wade Fletcher of Frederick Ross Company represented the seller in this transaction. Contact them for more information. V IEW o p p o rt u n i t i e s Rare opportunity to purchase commercial property in Stapleton Professional office/retail space is now available for sale in one of Stapleton’s most recognized office buildings. Located at 2373 Central Park Boulevard in Denver, this property offers multiple office/retail condo units for sale, with high-density residential surrounding the site. Boasting great architectural style and strong identity, the property is conveniently located just 10 minutes from downtown and 20 minutes from Denver International Airport. Stapleton is the nation’s largest urban redevelopment. Contact Pete Wycoff, Pete Staab or Austin Kane of Frederick Ross Company for additional information on this Stapleton property. announcements...recent announcements...recent announcements...recent announc We’ve moved! Frederick Ross Company recently moved to 1800 Larimer: the first new downtown Denver office highrise in over 25 years, and the first LEED Platinum highrise in downtown Denver. Please note our new company office address: Frederick Ross Company 1800 Larimer Street, Suite 1700 Denver, CO 80202 announcements...recent announcements...recent announcements...recent announcements...recent announ 2nd Quarter 2010 Market Reports Now Available! office “Midtown continues to boast the market’s lowest vacancy rate, at 11.80 percent.” To obtain your copy: industrial “The East submarket was the strongest performing metro Denver submarket.” retail “Denver retail sales in March, mark the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year growth.” • Contact your Ross broker, • Visit us on-line at www.frederickross.com, or • Contact Lauren Douglas, Director of Research, at [email protected] or 303.260.4364. boulder “Boulder market posted month over month declines in unemployment during every month in 2010.” V IEW O P P O RT U N I T I E S Prime Cherry Creek North location in Denver’s premier retail district Prominently located in the center of the exclusive 16-block Cherry Creek neighborhood, 210 St. Paul Street in Denver now offers 9,790 square feet of 1st floor retail or office space available for lease. This Class AA, first-floor space showcases store fronts on both 2nd Avenue and St. Paul Street, providing ultimate traffic and pedestrian exposure. Situated just one block north of Cherry Creek Mall, the property offers 26 dedicated on-site covered parking spaces and excellent demographics. Join Neiman Marcus, Macy’s, Saks Fifth Avenue, Nordstrom, and other great national and regional tenants in the area! Contact Susan Karsh, Frank Griffin, Pete Staab or Austin Kane for more information about this property. Net leased investment opportunity just off of I-70 in Denver Two multi-use industrial properties are now available for sale at 4930 and 4950 Colorado Boulevard in Denver. Just north of Interstate 70, these net leased buildings offer an excellent investment opportunity, with credit tenants and annual rent increases. 4930 Colorado Boulevard is 20,399 square feet on a 1.68-acre site. It includes a retail bank and drive through facility plus warehouse storage used to store excess furniture & equipment for all Denver U.S. Bank locations. Price: $1,936,048. 4950 Colorado Boulevard is 44,800 square feet on a 2.41acre site. This is a warehouse/manufacturing building. Price: $1,871,016. Jeff McClintock and Matt McClintock of Frederick Ross Company are the listing brokers for these properties. Contact them for more information. Completely redeveloped office space in the Highlands District Renovations are complete and all-new office space is now available for lease at 2901 West 19th Avenue in Denver. Designed by cutting edge Denver architects Bothwell Davis George, this 13,000-square-foot, two-story office building is located near Mile High Stadium, with amazing Denver skyline views. The property offers great access to Interstate 25, Highlands, LoDo and the Central Business District, along with an excellent parking ratio and building signage. Multiple suite options exist at this newly-renovated property. Contact Frederick Ross Company’s Keith Krombach for more details. V IEW A p a r t m e n t R e a lt y a d v i s o r s a F r e d e r ic k R o s s C o m pa n y market perspective Denver’s Apartment Market is HOT, HOT, HOT!!! RECENT TRANSACTI O NS . . . ARA RECENT TRANSACTI O n s . . . By Andy Hellman Apartment Realty Advisors It’s official, the Denver apartment market is heating up and showing no signs of cooling down any time soon! This is the news that investors have been waiting to hear for nearly a decade. Over the past ten years, apartment owners have seen concessions increase to a high of 17.4 percent in 2003, while vacancies rose to Andy Hellman 14.4 percent during the same year. For many, the road to recovery has been 8,000 frustratingly slow, and although the light at the end of the 7,000 tunnel seemed close, it remained out of reach. Retreat at City Center Aspen Court Aurora, Colorado $22,500,000 | 225 Units Colorado Springs, Colorado $1,430,000 | 61 Units Absorption vs. Vacancy 25.0% 20.0% 6,000 10.0% 3,000 2,000 5.0% 1,000 0 -1,000 0.0% 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 5.0% -2,000 -3,000 10.0% Absorption Vacancy Source: AAMD Effective Rent Growth a historic 8.00% high.” 6.00% Given this drastic decrease in vacancy rates over the course of the first half of the year, rents have responded with positive growth. Second quarter market rents increased to an average of $1.06 per square foot, while concessions fell by 5.5 percent over the previous quarter to an average of 9.1 percent. As a result, real effective rents grew by 3 percent, which when annualized equates to a growth rate of 12 percent over a 12-month period. 15.0% 4,000 Vacancy Absorbed UnitsUnits Absorbed “ 5,000 Vacancy Today, Denver’s apartment owners are singing a different tune as the apartment market as a whole is showing exceptional strength. Since the beginning of 2010, the market has absorbed 4,875 units, Demand representing 26 percent of the total number of vacant units across the for rental metro area and the second largest housing first half absorption total on record. Vacancy rates have fallen to 6.1 throughout percent during the second quarter the metro of 2010, the lowest second quarter vacancy rate since 2001, and a area is at decrease of 33 percent over 2009. 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 2Q '10 -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% The long term outlook for Denver’s apartment market Source: AAMD is positive. Demand for rental housing throughout the metro area is at a historic high and the level of available units is dwindling fast. In addition, the current construction pipeline is minimal and financing for new development remains nearly impossible. This will continue to keep new additions to the supply extremely limited for the next three years and insure that rents will continue to climb. 1800 Larimer Street, Suite 1700, Denver, CO 80202 • 303.260.4400 • [email protected] V IEW PEOPLE F or more than a century, Frederick Ross Company has provided unparalleled commercial real estate services in the Denver region. Our locallydelivered comprehensive platform means one thing to our clients: confident decision making. We provide customized solutions in: • • • • • • • Brokerage Management Research Marketing Financial Analysis Consulting Development/Capital The success of our clients is our paramount objective. Frederick Ross Company utilizes these services to capture value, minimize risk and maximize profits for its clients. Industrial brokers office brokers Jason B. Addlesperger Rodney D. Foster David K. Lee Jeffrey Y. McClintock Matthew Y. McClintock Chris A. Nordling Peter L. Wycoff Andrew L. Blaustein Robert H. Bruce Daniel R. Burke Jeffrey D. Castleton Jamie A. Gard Ben Gilliam Jane Grubich Nathan R. Johnson III Austin A. Kane Keith A. Krombach Thomas M. Lee Jared Leabch Judd Robertson Roger E. Simpson Peter M. Staab Jonathan P. Tilton Jon Treter John P. Tromly Investment brokers Wade R. Fletcher John J. “Packet” Lowrey Stephen J. Roesinger David G. Tilton [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Retail brokers Robert C. Bramble Frank O. Griffin Susan S. Karsh Michael J. Quinlan A partment Realty Advisors (ARA) is the largest privately held, full-service investment advisory brokerage firm in the nation that focuses exclusively on the multi-housing industry. The combination of resources, unparalleled market expertise and nationwide presence in the multi-housing marketplace resulted in an average annual production volume of $5.9 billion in real estate transactions since 2003. Apartment Realty Advisors of Colorado, a Frederick Ross Company, has been the top Colorado apartment brokerage for seven of the last eight years. For detailed information on ARA’s extensive multi-housing investment services, visit www.ARAusa.com. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] a Frederick Ross [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] management John P. Box Kevin D. Thomas Jennifer Plunkett Debbie McLachlan Deb Bergman [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Terrance Hunt Kevin McKenna Steve O’Dell Shane Ozment Jason Wine [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Company APARTMENT brokers Doug Andrews Chris Cowan Ken Greene Jeff Hawks Andy Hellman Justin Hunt [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] V IEW MARKET ACTIVITY Denver Industrial Market Activity By Sue Selle Analyst Industrial Market Balance 10.00% 6,000,000 8.00% 4,000,000 6.00% 2,000,000 4.00% 2.00% 0 Vacancy Square Feet The metro Denver industrial market showed solid signs of recovery during second quarter with positive absorption, lower vacancy and stabilized asking rates. The market’s uptick in activity is expected to continue through the balance of the year, ending 2010 with positive absorption. 10 9 2Q 08 20 0 07 20 06 20 04 05 20 20 03 20 02 20 20 20 01 0.00% The overall Denver industrial market posted positive absorption of 502,174 sf in 2Q10, which brings year-to-date absorption to 417,148 sf. The Industrial/ Supply Absorption Vacancy Warehouse sector was the driving force behind the Source: Ross Research Services increased activity this quarter, absorbing 512,651 sf of space. The R&D/Flex sector recorded flat declined from 6.96 percent in 2Q09 to 6.74 percent in activity in 2Q10 with absorption of negative 10,477 sf. 2Q10. Vacancy for R&D/Flex space continued to increase, The East submarket, which is situated along the Interstate jumping from 14.19 percent in 2Q09 to 15.32 percent 70 Corridor, was the strongest performing metro Denver in 2Q10. Although rental rates remain soft, asking rates submarket during 2Q10 with 440,426 sf of absorption. have stabilized in most submarkets compared to the sharp declines realized during 2009. Vacancy stood at 7.90 percent in 2Q10, and dipped below eight percent for the first time since 2Q09 when the rate was 7.93 percent. Vacancy for Industrial/Warehouse space Denver Retail Market Activity By Lauren Douglas Director of Research 10.00% 4,000,000 8.00% 3,000,000 6.00% 2,000,000 4.00% 1,000,000 Vacancy 5,000,000 2.00% 0 10 2Q 08 20 09 07 06 Absorption 20 20 05 20 04 Supply 20 03 20 20 02 20 01 0.00% 20 2Q10 absorption was positive, at 373,853 square feet, bringing year-to-date absorption to 755,659 square feet, and overall vacancy decreased to 9.19 percent, down from 9.57 percent at 4Q09. Median rental rates were stable. Retail Market Balance Square Feet As the national and local economies improve, albeit slowly, the retail market showed signs of stabilizing in the first half of 2010, logging moderate positive absorption, decreased vacancy, and stable rental rates. Improving consumer confidence, pent up demand and stable consumer prices have sparked a cautious recovery in consumer spending. However, job creation and income growth are necessary to sustain this trend. Vacancy Source: Ross Research Services The development pipeline has diminished to 515,000 square feet under construction, including the 415,000-square-foot IKEA that broke ground this quarter. Two single-tenant projects, totaling 230,500 square feet, were completed in 2Q10. Investment sales remain weak with 2Q10 sales totaling 592,437 square feet for a volume of $63,660,435. Ross Research believes that in the first half of 2010, the occurrence of positive absorption, signs of an improving labor market, and increased retail sales and consumer confidence signal that the retail market is stabilizing. For more Denver market information, please contact Lauren Douglas at [email protected]. V IEW