Media Times

Media Times
Fortnightly update on the different media segments
Abneesh Roy
Sharad Todi, CFA
Kartik Gaba
+91-22-6620 3141
+91-22-6623 3481
+91-22-6620 3026
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
08, September 2008
Table of Contents
Key highlights/developments
TV Broadcasting
Relative share of genres
TV ratings:
ti
A
Analysis
l i off strategy
t t
off Colors
C l
Print
Newsprint prices
Top 10 advertisers
Multiplexes/Movies
Occupancies of multiplexes (quarter-wise)
Movie p
pipeline
p
and box office collections
Radio
Top advertisers
Internet
Top daily page views
Forthcoming Events
Valuation
Performance of Media Stocks
Key highlights/developments
Broadcasting/TV content
Viewership gap between Star Plus and Zee TV has been narrowing over the
past few weeks.
Colors maintained its No.3 position in Hindi GEC with a sharp jump in GRPs.
9 and
9X
d NDTV Imagine
i out off the
h Top 5.
IBN 18 plans to raise INR 4 bn.
INX Media in talks to raise up to USD 150 mn.
TAM starts DTH TV viewing data.
data
NDTV plans to launch regional channels.
TRAI directs Star Den to modify pricing of TV18 group channels.
Star TV inks its first US cable distribution deal with Cox Communications.
Eros and Star TV sign a multi-film syndication deal; titles include Tere Naam
and Naa Tum Jaano Naa Hum.
Sony hires Gurdip Bhangoo, ex BBC Asian programming unit head, as
programming head.
TV Distribution
Dish TV reported good numbers in August 2008; added 1,86,594 new
subscribers; total registered customer base at 3.76
3 76 mn.
mn
DTH service provider Sun Direct TV, which has a subscriber base of 1.3 mn,
to invest INR 1.5 bn for expansion.
3
Key highlights/developments
Print Media
TV18 and Jagran Prakashan put regional business newspaper project on hold
due to prevailing market conditions.
Daily Thanthi and Dinakaran, two Tamil dailies, launched their Mumbai edition
in the same week.
INS moots 30% hike in ad card rates for all print players to overcome rising
newsprint prices.
Movie Production/Distribution
Shree Ashtavinayak to invest INR 800 mn; release four films in FY09.
Shemaroo to invest INR 2 bn in film production and distribution.
Eros and Star sign multi-film syndication deal.
Sahara One bags EMI global distribution rights for INR 375 mn.
Big Pictures forays into Marathi films with Samaantar.
Adlabs may be merged with Big Pictures.
Pictures
Key highlights/developments
Exhibition
PVR to invest INR 2.5 bn over the next five years to add 200 screens.
PVR and Major Cineplex to open bowling alleys, karaoke centers, ice skating
rinks and gaming zones in Q4FY09.
rinks,
Q4FY09
Adlabs plans three multiplexes in Chennai with 17 screens.
Inox to invest around INR 4-4.5 bn in the next three years to increase its
screen count to ~260 screens. Also commences operations of a multiplex
cinema
i
att Jaipur
J i
(R j th ) on September
(Rajasthan)
S t
b 1,
1 2008.
2008
Radio
The Ministry
yo
of Information
o a o a
and
d Broadcasting
oad a
g ((MIB)) has
a cancelled
a
d the b
bidding
dd g
of vacant channels of FM radio in Phase II. A combined tender is likely to be
floated in respect of vacant channels of Phase II and channels of Phase III.
Times Group to rebrand Virgin Radio as Absolute Radio; to invest
INR 1.19
1 19 bn.
bn
5
Key highlights/developments
New Media/Others
Cinema Capital Venture Fund, which has floated entertainment funds worth
INR 5-7 bn, is likely to invest in eight companies in 18 months.
IPL champs Rajasthan Royals are considering private placement/IPO.
Bigflix, which currently has 17,000 titles across its 100 movie rental stores, is
planning to add 100 rental stores across 10 cities in FY09.
Bigflix to add 5,000
5 000 movie titles to its VOD platform by FY09 end from 1,400
1 400
titles currently.
Reliance Big Entertainment has acquired a majority stake in a US-based
cricket webcasting portal, Willow TV, for an undisclosed amount.
7seas launches mobile gaming portal www.mobzill.com.
Online gaming portal Zapak, a Reliance ADAG venture, has announced the
launch of Zapak CD game.
6
Relative share of genres in TV
(%)
Channel
Last 4 weeks
Last week
Week 35
Gain loss
Hindi general entertainment
24.3
25.2
24.5
(0.8)
South regional channels
19.3
18.9
18.1
(0.7)
Hindi
d movie
o e channels
c a es
10.4
0
10.1
0
9.6
9
6
(0.5)
(0
5)
Sports channels
3.0
3.7
5.7
2.0
Hindi news channels
5.0
4.4
4.7
0.3
Kids channels
4.3
4.3
4.1
(0.2)
Music channels
1.7
1.7
1.7
-
English movie channels
0.7
0.7
0.7
-
Infotainment channels
0.8
0.8
0.7
(0.1)
English news channels
0.5
0.5
0.5
-
English business news channels
0.3
0.3
0.3
-
Hindi
d b
business news channels
h
l
0.2
0.2
0.2
-
English entertainment channels
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
29.3
29.1
29
(0.1)
Others - including other regional channels
Source: Edelweiss research
Sports channels gain due to cricket (India v/s Sri Lanka)
Hindi GEC genre: TV ratings
42.0
28.0
21.0
14.0
7.0
Star Plus
Zee TV
Sony
Sahara One
Star One
Sab
Star Utsav
DD1
9X
NDTV Imagine
Zee Next
Colors
Wee
ek 34
Wee
ek 29
Wee
ek 24
Wee
ek 19
Wee
ek 14
We
eek 9
We
eek 4
Wee
ek 51
Wee
ek 46
Wee
ek 41
Wee
ek 36
Wee
ek 31
Wee
ek 26
Wee
ek 21
Wee
ek 16
Wee
ek 11
We
eek 6
0.0
We
eek 1
Viewe
ership (%)
35.0
Source: Edelweiss research
Colors has become the No.3 GEC within four weeks of launch. It had the best
launch among the three new entrants.
9X and NDTV Imagine out of the Top 5 Hindi GECs. 9X is struggling and has
fallen behind even Sahara One. NDTV Imagine too is precariously close to
Sahara One. Both these new entrants have come down sharply after initial
success.
8
Viewership gap narrowing between Star Plus and Zee TV
Channel
Last 4
L
weeks
Last
L
Week
Week 35
Gain Loss
Star Plus
26
25.4
24.2
(1.2)
Zee TV
17.7
17.9
18.1
0.2
Colors
11 2
11.2
13 2
13.2
13 5
13.5
02
0.2
Sony Entertainment TV
8.7
7.8
7.6
(0.2)
Star One
7.4
7.1
7
(0.1)
NDTV Imagine
7.4
7.4
6.6
(0.8)
Sahara One
5.6
5.7
6.5
0.8
DD1
3.6
3.3
5.8
2.5
9X
6.7
6.6
5.5
(1.1)
SAB
2.3
2.5
2.5
-
Star Utsav
2.6
2.4
2
(0.4)
Zee Next
0.9
0.8
0.8
-
Source: Edelweiss research
The viewership gap between Star Plus and Zee TV has been narrowing over
the past few weeks (partly due to Saregamapa ratings and repositioning of
serials such as Naagin).
9
Hindi GECs: Is Colors’ strategy sustainable?
GRPs for All Day
Week 34
GRPs for Prime Time
Week 34
GRPs for weekend programming
Week 34
312
166
29
Zee TV
220
133
22
Colors
163
88
24
Channels
Star Plus
y
Sony
96
50
21
NDTV Imagine
91
40
N.A
Star One
87
47
N.A
9X
81
38
N.A
Sahara One
70
32
N.A
SAB
30
14
N.A
Z
Zee
N
Nextt
10
3
NA
N.A
Source: Edelweiss research
In the prime time, Star and Zee are far ahead of the rest. 9X and NDTV
Imagine
g
are p
pretty
y close to Sahara One in p
prime time which should be
disappointing for them.
For weekend programming, GRPs of Colors were higher than Zee TV. This
clearly indicates that Colors is following the strategy of tapping weekend
viewers. The strategy of Colors has been to show new movies on weekends
(Mithya, Train; plans to show Om Shanti Om shortly), repeat runs of its
popular shows Khatron ke Khiladi and Big Boss. It promotes its soap operas
such as Balika Vadu and Jai Shri Krishna heavily during these timebands. This
has led to increasing ratings of its soap operas. However, we do note the high
cost of this strategy and loss of ratings of NDTV Imagine and 9X after initial
success. However, Colors is way behind Zee TV in overall prime time.
Number of programmes in Top 100 for TV channels
Star Plus
Zee TV
Colors
Bidayi
Banoo Main Teri Dulhaan
Kis Desh Mein Hai Meraa
Dil
Maayka
Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi
Bahu Thi
Kasamh Se
Naagin-Vaadon
Naagin
Vaadon Ki Agni
Pariksha
Kasturi
50
40
30
20
10
Star Plus
Sun TV
Zee TV
Week 3
34
Week 3
31
Week 2
28
Week 2
25
Week 2
22
Week 1
19
Week 1
16
Week 1
13
Week 1
10
Week 7
Week 4
0
Week 1
No. of Prrogrammes
60
Colors
Raja Ki Aayegi Baarat
Betiyaan Ghar Ki Lakshmi
Kahaani Ghar Ghar Ki
Saath Phere
Baa Bahoo Aur Baby
Saregamapa
Balika Vadhu
Big Boss
Jai Shri Krishna
Hamari Devrani
Kayamath
Santan
Source: Edelweiss research
Source: Edelweiss research
Star Plus and Zee TV continue to dominate Hindi GECs and have maintained
their share.
Within four weeks of launch Colors has 11 programmes in top 100.
Sun TV has seen a dip in the number of programmes in Top 100 in the past
three weeks.
11
Hindi movie genre: TV ratings
70 0
70.0
50.0
40.0
30 0
30.0
20.0
10.0
Max
Zee Cinema
Star Gold
Filmy
B4U Movies
Week 3
34
Week 2
29
Week 2
24
Week 1
19
Week 1
14
Week
k9
Week
k4
Week 5
51
Week 4
46
Week 4
41
Week 3
36
Week 3
31
Week 2
26
Week 2
21
Week 1
16
Week 1
11
Week
k6
0.0
Week
k1
ership (%)
Viewe
60.0
UTV Movies
Source: Edelweiss research
Excluding cricket matches on Set Max, the competition between Zee Cinema
and Set Max has been stiff; both have been fighting for the No.1 position.
12
Hindi news genre: TV ratings
28 0
28.0
20.0
16.0
12.0
80
8.0
4.0
Star News
Zee News
TEZ
Live India
Aaj Tak
IBN 7
Sahara Samay National
News 24
Week 34
W
Week 29
W
Week 24
W
Week 19
W
Week 14
W
Week 9
Week 4
Week 51
W
Week 46
W
Week 41
W
Week 36
W
Week 31
W
Week 26
W
Week 21
W
Week 16
W
Week 11
W
Week 6
0.0
Week 1
viewe rship (%)
24.0
India TV
NDTV India
DD News
India News
Source: Edelweiss research
Aaj Tak has maintained its No.1 position despite losing market share.
Stiff competition
o p
o among
a o g top
op 3 players.
p ay
13
English news genre: TV ratings
48 0
48.0
42.0
30.0
24.0
18.0
12.0
6.0
NDTV 24x7
Times Now
CNN IBN
Headlines today
Week 3
34
Week 2
29
Week 2
24
Week 1
19
Week 1
14
Week
k9
Week
k4
Week 5
51
Week 4
46
Week 4
41
Week 3
36
Week 3
31
Week 2
26
Week 2
21
Week 1
16
Week 1
11
Week
k6
0.0
Week
k1
ship (%)
viewers
36.0
News X
Source: Edelweiss research
NDTV 24x7 has regained its No.1 position from Times Now as the TVRs of its
programmes have started increasing and a few of them have also started
appearing in the top 5 - India 60 Minute Verdict Top Stories, China Shinning,
The 9 O Clock News Top Stories, The Other Side of Terror.
CNN IBN has become the No.2 player displacing Times Now.
Stiff competition among top 3 players.
No 5 player.
player
NewsX has failed to have a major impact; currently No.
14
Business news genre: TV ratings
Hindi
90
70
80
60
70
viewership (%)
80
50
40
30
20
10
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CNBC - TV18
UTVi
Source: Edelweiss research
Awaaz
Week 34
Week 29
Week 24
Week 19
Week 9
Week 14
Week 4
Week 51
Week 46
Week 41
Week 36
Week 31
Week 26
Week 21
Week 16
Week 11
Week 6
Week 1
Week 34
Week 29
Week 24
Week 19
Week 9
NDTV-Profit
Week 14
Week 4
Week 51
Week 46
Week 41
Week 36
Week 31
Week 26
Week 21
Week 16
Week 6
Week 11
0
Week 1
viewership (%)
English
Zee Business
Source: Edelweiss research
UTVi’s market share has been rising (from a small base) for the past few
weeks. It has impacted NDTV-Profit more than CNBC-TV18.
The revamped content of Zee Business has helped it close the gap with CNBC
Awaaz.
15
Sports genre: TV ratings
90.0
60.0
45.0
30.0
15.0
Star Sports
Ten Sports
ESPN
DD Sports
Zee Sports
Neo Cricket
Neo Sports
Star Cricket
Week
k 34
Week
k 29
Week
k 24
Week
k 19
Week
k 14
Wee
ek 9
Wee
ek 4
Week
k 51
Week
k 46
Week
k 41
Week
k 36
Week
k 31
Week
k 26
Week
k 21
Week
k 16
Week
k 11
Wee
ek 6
0.0
Wee
ek 1
viewe rship (%)
75.0
Source: Edelweiss research
Ten Sports has improved the channel’s viewership in the past few weeks due
to WWE and India vs. Sri Lanka matches.
DD Sports
S
t viewership
i
hi surged
d during
d i
th pastt few
the
f
weeks
k due
d
t the
to
th
telecasting of Olympics.
16
Growth of TV channels in India
Source: Livemint.com
Newsprint prices: Still no signs of a reversal
CIF Mumbai (Canadian Newsprint)
Newsprint - 30 lbs
1,000
750
700
600
550
500
Source: Crisil research
8/1/2008
4/1/2008
12/1/2007
12/1/2006
8/1/2006
4/1/2006
12/1/2005
8/1/2005
4/1/2005
12/1/2004
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Apr-06
Oct-05
Apr-05
Oct-04
500
Newsprint costs
450
8/1/2004
Newsprint costs
4/1/2004
600
8/1/2007
700
650
4/1/2007
(USD/ton
nne)
800
Apr-04
(USD/tonne )
900
Source: Bloomberg
Newsprint costs has risen significantly in the past eight months due to
consolidation in mills in the US,, higher
g
demand due to Olympics
y p
in China,,
elections in the US, increase in energy costs, and appreciation of the
Canadian dollar against USD.
18
Top 10 sectors in print media (ads)
Top sectors
% share (Jan - Jun 2008)
Education
17
Services
12
Banking/Finance/Investment
11
Auto
7
Retail
4
Corporate/Brand image
4
Durables
3
P
Personal
l accessories
i
3
Telecom/Internet service providers
3
Media
2
Source: Edelweiss research
Education sector had the highest percentage share in the print ad market
form January–June
y
2008.
Multiplexes: Occupancies to improve going forward
50%
(occupa
ancy)
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
Q1FY08
Q2FY08
PVR
Q3FY08
Fame India
Q4FY08
Q1FY09
Inox Leisure
Source: Edelweiss research
d Fame India
d occupancies are as reported
db
PVR and
by company
Inox Leisure occupancy is based on our calculation
We expect sequential improvement in occupancy in Q2FY09 as this quarter
has seen big ticket movies releasing like Singh is Kinng, Jaane Tu Ya Jaane
Na and also due to a strong pipeline of movies.
Strong pipeline of movies: Positive for multiplexes
Date
Banner
Cast
1920
ASA Films
Rajneesh Duggal, Adah Sharma
Ru Ba Ru
Percept Picture Company
Randeep Hooda, Shahana Goswami
Saas Bahu aur Sensex
Warner Bros/PLA
Entertainment
Planman Motion Pictures
Tanushree Dutta, Kirron Kher, Farooq Sheikh
Amitabh Bachchan, Priety Zinta, Arjun Rampal
Hari Puttar - A Comedy of Terrors
Mirchi Movies Ltd
Sarika, Jackie Shroff, Zain Khan, Lilette Dubey
Hulla
Handmade Films
Rajat Kapoor, Sushant Singh
Welcome to Sajjanpur
UTV Spot Boy
Shreyas Talpade, Amrita Rao, Ravi Kishan
Maya Movies
Randeep Hooda, Nandana Sen, Paresh Rawal
Drona
Rose Movies
Eros Entertainment
y
Chopra,
p , Kay
y Kay
y Menon,, Jaya
y
Abhishek Bachchan,, Priyanka
Bachchan
Kidnap
Shree Ashtavinayak
Sanjay Dutt, Minissha Lamba, Imran Khan, Malaika Arora,
Amrita Arora, Rahul dev, Vidya Malvade
Percept Picture Company
Nandita Das, Rashid Farooqui, Noman Ijaz, Maria Wasti
12-Sep-08
The Last Lear
19-Sep-08
26-Sep-08
Rang Rasiya/Colors of Passion
2-Oct-08
3-Oct-08
Ramchand Pakistani
Source: Edelweiss research
21
Recent box office collections and movie ratings
Collections till date for each movie
Bachna Ae Haseeno
2
Domestic Net
Total (INR)
272,234,997
Singh Is Kinng
3
692,325,381
960,484,398
2,300,000
Phoonk
1
67,473,144
90,449,029
n/a
Mumbai Meri Jaan
1
24,892,779
36,793,196
n/a
n/a
God Tussi Great Ho
2
130,350,263
183,855,015
163,756
120,250
Maan Gaye Mughal-e-Azam
1
17,628,028
25,949,610
n/a
n/a
Jaane Tu Ya Jaane Na
8
576,298,121
820,264,036
600,922
136,750
My Friend Ganesha 2
1
313,520
424,203
n/a
n/a
Kismet Konnection
6
51,869,524
353,761,425
479,759
241,554
Ugly aur Pagli
4
67,915,911
90,921,222
n/a
30,029
Film
Week
Total Domestic
Gross (INR)
386,227,484
USA Gross
(USD)
613,771
UK Gross
(GBP)
259,926
1,267,840
n/a
as on 31-August-2008
Source: Edelweiss research
Movie ratings by newspapers and web portals
Movie
A Wednesday!
y
Hijack
j
Tahaan
Rock On
Chamku
Wall-E
Times of India
4/5
2/5
3/5
3/5
1/5
3.5/5
Mumbai Mirrior
2/5
1/5
3/5
3/5
3/5
4.5/5
Hindustan Times
4/5
1.5/5
4/5
3.5/5
2/5
3.5/5
3.5/5
1/5
4/5
4/5
1/5
4/5
4/5
1/5
3/5
3/5
2/5
4/5
Rediff
CNN-IBN
Source: Edelweiss research
22
Animation: Big budget movies in pipeline
Fil
Film
B
Banner
A i
Animation
ti
Studio
St di
V i
Voice-overs
Roadside Romeo
Walt Disney Studios & Yash
Raj Films
Eros, Big Screen
Entertainment
Visual Computing Labs
(Tata Elxsi Ltd)
2nz, MEL
Saif Ali khan, Kareena
Kapoor, Jaaved Jaaferi
Ajay Devgan, Kajol
Toonpur Ka Superhero
B d t (INR mn)
Budget
)
N.A
>400
Ek Khiladi Ek Haseena 2.0 Pritish Nandy Communications Estudio Flex (Costa Rica) Fardeen Khan, Feroz Khan
~220
220
Sultan - The Warrior
Adlabs, Ocher Studios
Ocher Studios
Rajnikanth
>400
Mahayoddha Rama
Contiloe Pictures
Pixion
Kunal Kapoor, Sameera
Reddy, Jimmy Shergill
>250
Arjun
UTV Motion Pictures
UTV Toonz, Tata Elxsi
N.A
>300
Source: Edelweiss research
Companies are now spending INR 250
250-450
450 mn on an animation movie,
movie which
is as much as a few big ticket non-animation movies.
Roadside Romeo is expected to release in Diwali.
23
Radio: Top advertisers
Top Advertisers in July 2008
Categories
Advertisers
Brands
TV Channel Promotions
Tata Teleservices
Airtel mChek
Cellular Phone Service
Bharti Airtel Ltd
Virgin V Bling Phones
Independent Retailers
Pantaloons Retail India Ltd
Reliance SIP(Systematic Investment Plan)
Properties/Real Estates
Reliance Capital Asset Management
Nike Shoes/Apparel
Publications/Books
LG Electronics India Ltd
Tata Indicom Cellular Phone Service
Educational Institutions
Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd
Huggies Care
Jewellery
y
Nike
BSNL Cellular Phone Service
Social Advertisements
Hindustan Unilever Ltd
Tata Sky
Readymade Garments
Kimberly Clark Corporation
LG Dynamite
Cars/Jeeps
Pepsi Co India Holding (Pvt) Ltd
Bausch & Lomb Soft Comfort
Source: Edelweiss research
The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting has cancelled the bidding of
vacant channels of FM radio in Phase II. Instead, a combined tender is likely
to be floated in respect of vacant channels of Phase II and channels of Phase
III.
III
Radio Mirchi’s new stations have broken even.
Times Of India Group to rebrand Virgin Radio as Absolute Radio; to invest INR
1.19 bn.
Web portals: Daily page views trend
Source: Edelweiss research
25
Key forthcoming events
Broadcasting
ZNL plans to launch channels in Tamil Nadu and Chhattisgarh.
Reliance ADA Group plans to launch 20 channels to supplement its DTH
venture,
e tu e, Big
g TV.
Raj TV is planning to launch news channels in Telugu, Kannada, and
Malayalam.
TV 9 to launch five news and entertainment channels.
Print
Ad rate hike expected by HT Media in September.
We expect
p
ad rate hike by
y other players
p y
too due to INS recommendation.
Industry expects newsprint prices to peak and start declining in the next two
quarters.
Distribution
FDI cap in DTH and HITS may rise to 74% from 49% (current).
Launch of DTH by Bharti and Videocon.
26
Valuations
Media stocks: Valuations
Company
Ratings
CMP
M. Cap
PE (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
MCap/Sales (x)
(INR)
(INR mn)
FY08
FY09E
FY10E
FY08
FY09E
FY10E
FY08
FY09E
FY10E
200
4,590
22.7
19.9
14.8
11.1
10.0
6.8
1.7
1.3
0.9
PVR
Buy
Inox Leisure
Accumulate
84
5 129
5,129
19 7
19.7
19 2
19.2
15 7
15.7
13 2
13.2
11 0
11.0
84
8.4
28
2.8
22
2.2
16
1.6
Fame India
Accumulate
42
1,475
10.5
25.5
12.1
12.3
9.8
6.6
1.6
1.0
0.7
TV Today
Accumulate
94
5,446
12.5
11.2
9.5
6.1
5.0
3.7
2.4
1.9
1.7
Television Eighteen *
Accumulate
239
27,687
108.3
32.0
26.9
27.7
15.2
11.8
6.9
6.6
5.3
Zee Entertainment
Accumulate
221
96,013
25.0
22.5
18.1
17.9
14.8
12.3
5.2
4.4
3.9
Deccan Chronicle
Not Rated
123
30 193
30,193
11 2
11.2
10 6
10.6
83
8.3
58
5.8
54
5.4
41
4.1
39
3.9
33
3.3
28
2.8
* FY08 are consolidated and estimates are of news business only
Media stocks: Performance (% change)
Company
PVR
CMP
200
1Week
7.4
1Month
11.7
3Months
8.0
6Months
(17.3)
12Months
(7.9)
Inox Leisure
84
0.7
2.7
(12.2)
(22.0)
(31.1)
Fame India
42
13.8
5.3
(20.9)
(31.7)
(27.0)
TV Today
94
1.3
(7.6)
(3.4)
(21.5)
(37.2)
Television Eighteen
239
4.3
5.8
(18.1)
(39.5)
(43.0)
Zee Entertainment
221
3.9
6.9
(1.6)
(17.9)
(30.8)
Deccan Chronicle
123
4.5
10.4
6.4
(23.4)
(47.4)
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