Hyndburn Borough Council Employment Land Study Final Report

Transcription

Hyndburn Borough Council
Employment Land Study
Final Report
January 2016
1
Contents
1.
Introduction
3
2.
Hyndburn: the study area
8
3.
Policy and Strategy Context
12
4.
Economic Baseline
18
5.
Property Market Baseline
43
6.
Understanding Business Needs
65
7.
Demand Assessment
72
8.
Supply Assessment
101
9.
Supply Demand Balance and Policy Recommendations
108
Appendix 1: Business and Employment Survey Forms
113
Appendix 2: SIC codes to use class assumptions
119
Appendix 3: Site Appraisal Proformas
120
Appendix 4: Existing Employment Area Appraisal
121
Appendix 5: Site Scoring Matrix
122
Contact
Gavin Amos
[email protected]
January 2016
1. Introduction
1.1
Turley, in association with Colliers International, were commissioned to undertake an
Employment Land Study (ELS) on behalf of Hyndburn Borough Council. The ELS will
form a key part of the evidence base and will assess the prospects of the local economy
and associated demand for jobs, employment land and premises.
1.2
As a key piece of evidence underpinning the emerging Local Plan it will ensure future
employment land allocation policies for the Borough respond to local needs and
maximise opportunities that exist to support the sustainable economic growth of the
area and its businesses.
1.3
In preparing this evidence the study has involved a detailed analysis of a range of
standard economic datasets to assess Hyndburn’s economic performance and future
growth prospects. Commercial property market conditions have also been examined,
including factors influencing the supply and demand for different types of employment
space across the area. The results of the analysis have subsequently been used to
devise and test a range of economic growth scenarios, enabling evidenced and
reasoned conclusions to be reached on the level of growth that Hyndburn is expected to
experience over the next 20 years.
1.4
The study also includes a detail assessment of the Borough’s supply of existing
employment sites and allocations, identifying those which should be retained to ensure
the economic vitality of the Borough over the period to 2033.
1.5
The completion of the ELS will contribute further to the evidence base on the objectively
assessed need (OAN) for housing in the Borough to help take forward the new Local
Plan.
Study context
1.6
Hyndburn Borough Council is now partway through preparation of its new Local Plan
with the Core Strategy, adopted in January 2012, setting the strategic policy framework
for development in the Borough up to 2026. A key priority for the Council over the next
18 months is the preparation of its Site Allocations Development Plan Document (DPD),
with the Employment Land Study being a key piece of evidence informing the
development of this.
1.7
Currently, within the Core Strategy, Policy E1 sets a requirement to plan for
approximately 58 hectares of land for employment uses (B1, B2 and B8) to meet the
requirements of the Borough for the period 2011-2026. This requirement was based on
historic rates of take up and development of employment land in the Borough as
examined through the 2008 ELS prepared by Lambert Smith Hampton.
1.8
The economic context has changed considerably in the seven years since the last
Borough-wide ELS was completed. The available land supply has also since changed
and there is a need to understand the potential role of strategic sites such as Huncoat
and Whitebirk in meeting future employment needs.
3
1.9
Within this context, the Council is seeking to update its evidence base in relation to
economic matters. Moreover, in line with requirements set out in the National Planning
Policy Framework (NPPF) and National Planning Policy Guidance (PPG), the Council is
seeking an ELS to provide:
•
An understanding of the current status of the market in relation to economic
matters in Hyndburn, including identification of barriers to investment, particularly
in the context of the Borough’s strategic sites;
•
An assessment of the requirements for office (B1), general business (B2) and
warehousing (B8) land and floorspace from existing employers in the Borough,
and potential inward investors, by market sector;
•
An assessment of the current stock of employment sites in the Borough and their
overall fitness for purpose;
•
An analysis of the potential supply of land and floorspace for economic uses by
market sector, location and quality. This includes an assessment of the potential
of existing allocated sites that have not been taken up, together with sites
identified by the Council or through the Council’ Call for Sites Exercise; and
•
The identification of specific employment market segments that are over-supplied
and/or under supplied in quantitative and qualitative terms, with recommendations
on how the Council would be best placed to help address these.
Approach and methodology
1.10
The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) was published in March 2012 with the
aim of providing a more concise and understandable approach to the planning system
and to deliver sustainable development and economic growth.
1.11
Looking specifically at the NPPF, firstly it is important to recognise that the NPPF is built
around a policy commitment to the achievement of sustainable development. At the
heart of the NPPF is a “presumption in favour of sustainable development”, which
requires local authorities in the development of their Local Plans to adopt a positive
approach in order to “seek opportunities to meet the development needs of an area”
(CLG, 2012, para 14, first bullet).
1.12
Further clarification is provided through the core planning principles set out at Paragraph
17 of the Framework. Importantly, this includes the following requirement that planning
should:
“Proactively drive and support sustainable economic development to deliver the homes,
business and industrial units, infrastructure and thriving local places that the country
needs. Every effort should be made objectively to identify and then meet the housing,
business and other development needs of an area, and respond positively to wider
opportunities for growth. Plans should take account of market signals, such as land
prices and housing affordability, and set out a clear strategy for allocating sufficient land
which is suitable for development in their area, taking account of the needs of the
residential and business communities.” (CLG, 2012, para 17, 3rd bullet).
4
1.13
The Framework provides further guidance on the use of a ‘proportionate evidence base’.
At paragraph 158 it states that:
“Each local planning authority should ensure that the Local Plan is based on adequate,
up-to-date and relevant evidence about the economic, social and environmental
characteristics and prospects of the area. Local planning authorities should ensure that
their assessment of and strategies for housing, employment and other uses are
integrated, and that they take full account of relevant market and economic signals.”
(CLG, 2012, para 158).
1.14
Importantly, the NPPF states that policies should avoid the long term protection of sites
allocated for employment use where there is no reasonable prospect of it being used for
that purpose, including the need for regular reviews of sites, having regard to market
signals.
Duty to Co-operate: The policy and legislative framework
1.15
The NPPF sets out that local authorities have a ‘duty to cooperate’ on planning issues
that cross administrative boundaries. The Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act
(2004) also requires that the local authority engage constructively with its neighbours.
1.16
Particular reference within the NPPF is made to the importance of effectively fulfilling
this duty when considering, and presenting, the strategic policies to deliver new homes
and jobs within Local Plan preparation.
1.17
The NPPF provides guidance to local authorities regarding the appropriate measures to
undertake in order to fulfil the duty:
1.18
•
Joint working on areas of common interest is to be diligently undertaken to the
mutual benefit of neighbouring local authorities.
•
Collaborative working is to be undertaken between local authorities and other
bodies such as Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs).
•
Consideration of the preparation of joint planning policies on strategic matters.
The duty to cooperate therefore acts as the mechanism by which local planning
authorities can effectively:
“…ensure that strategic priorities across local boundaries are properly coordinated and
clearly reflected clearly in Local Plans” (DCLG, 2012, para 179).
1.19
The NPPF states that the required outcome of the duty to cooperate is that, through this
constructive process, it should enable:
“…local planning authorities to work together to meet development requirements which
cannot wholly be met within their own areas…” (DCLG, 2012, para 179)
5
Relevant Planning Practice Guidance
1.20
The policy direction of the NPPF is expressed more explicitly through Planning Practice
Guidance, which was published in full in March 2014. Specific guidance is provided on
the measures local planning authorities should take to support economic growth and
plan proactively to meet the future development needs of businesses.
1.21
PPG has been published relating to the assessment of economic development needs
and provides a framework for objectively assessing and evidencing development needs
to support economic growth and development. The primary objectives of the
assessment are to;
•
identify the future quantity of land or floorspace required for economic
development uses including both the quantitative and qualitative needs for new
development; and
•
provide a breakdown of that analysis in terms of quality and location, and to
provide an indication of gaps in current land supply.
1.22
In assessing need, the guidance states that needs should be assessed in relation to the
relevant functional area, which for economic development purposes is the functional
economic area in relation to economic uses. However, the guidance states that it may
be appropriate to identify smaller sub-markets with specific features, and it may be
appropriate to investigate these specifically in order to create a detailed picture of local
need.
1.23
Within this context the assessment of land availability is an important step and an
integral part of the plan making process. This study has therefore been prepared giving
due consideration to guidance relating to the assessment of economic land availability.
The primary purpose of this assessment is to identify the future supply of land which is
suitable, available and achievable for economic development uses over the plan period.
Furthermore, PPG states that in preparing the assessment local planning authorities
should;
1.24
•
identify sites and broad locations with potential for development;
•
assess their development potential; and
•
assess their suitability for development and the likelihood of development
coming forward (the availability and achievability).
This approach is designed to ensure that all land is assessed together as part of plan
preparation to identify which sites and/or broad locations are the most suitable and
deliverable for future economic development use. It also provides the basis for testing
the sufficiency of identified land supply in meeting the quantitative and qualitative
economic development needs of the district and any potential gaps in the current land
supply.
6
Report Structure
1.25
In accordance with the requirements set out above, the remainder of this report is
structured as follows:
•
Section 2 - Hyndburn: the study area
•
Section 3 - Policy and Strategy Context
•
Section 4 - Economic Baseline
•
Section 5 - Property Market Baseline
•
Section 6 - Understanding Business Needs
•
Section 7 - Demand Assessment
•
Section 8 - Supply Assessment
•
Section 9 - Supply Demand Balance and Policy Recommendations.
7
2. Hyndburn: the study area
2.1
Hyndburn is the smallest of the 14 authorities in Lancashire, and – like many other
authorities in Lancashire – has faced longstanding issues regarding job creation,
1
population and deprivation . Over recent years, net outmigration has been seen, limiting
population growth, while the Borough is characterised by a younger demographic and
contains fewer people of pensionable age. House prices are also comparatively low,
with high concentrations of lower value stock and vacant dwellings.
2.2
Hyndburn – like many other areas – has seen a decline in the manufacturing sector,
although this remains an important local source of employment despite growth in the
service sector. There has, however, been only limited job growth in the Borough over
recent years, with this considered in further detail throughout this report.
2.3
Hyndburn is bisected by the M65, which has improved access to the Borough and
stimulated the development of new business locations close to motorway junctions. A
railway line also runs through Oswaldtwistle, Church and Accrington, providing access
to Blackburn, Burnley and wider Lancashire. Key infrastructure is illustrated in the
following plan.
Figure 2.1:
Location Map and Major Infrastructure
Source: Turley, 2015
2
1
Lancashire County Council – Overview and district profiles (Hyndburn district profile)
Plans reproduced by permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of The Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. ©
Crown Copyright and database right 2015. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100020449
2
8
Defining the Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA)
2.4
The PPG recognises that economic development needs are rarely defined precisely by
local authority administrative boundaries. Local authorities such as Hyndburn are
therefore encouraged to work collaboratively with other neighbouring authorities to
ensure strategic priorities across local boundaries are properly co-ordinated and clearly
reflected in individual Local Plans.
2.5
With this in mind the guidance identifies that economic needs should be assessed in
relation to the relevant Functional Economic Market Area (FEMA). The guidance notes
that there is no standard approach to defining the FEMA, but does suggest that a range
of factors should be considered. This includes considering the extent of the Local
Enterprise Partnership (LEP), Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs), housing market areas,
administrative areas and catchment areas. It is also suggested that the transport
network and the flow of goods within the local economy can provide an indication of the
functional economic area.
2.6
It is evident that the Borough’s transport network - in particular the M65 motorway - is a
key spatial factor influencing travel to work patterns, the supply and demand of business
space and the operation of commercial property markets more generally across East
Lancashire. Hyndburn also forms part of the wider Lancashire Enterprise Partnership.
2.7
Furthermore, the SHMA for Hyndburn - completed in partnership with Blackburn with
Darwen – included an assessment of the housing market area definition. This concluded
that the two authorities could be considered collectively as a self-contained housing
market area, with the commuting relationship between the authorities one key indicator
of this connection.
2.8
A commonly accepted approach looks to define FEMAs where around 75% of
economically active residents of a TTWA also work in that area. It is therefore beneficial
to consider up-to-date commuting patterns using data from the 2011 Census in order to
establish the extent of the FEMA. A review of 2011 Census data reveals that Hyndburn
exhibits comparatively low levels of self-containment with around 43% of economically
active residents working in the Borough. The Borough’s FEMA is therefore much wider
with economic linkages with Blackburn with Darwen, Burnley, Ribble Valley, Rossendale
and Pendle evident in the data, with 84% of Hyndburn’s residents working within this
geography. Blackburn with Darwen in particular plays an important economic role for
residents of Hyndburn, providing work for around one in five residents. This is
summarised in the following table.
3
3
Nathaniel Litchfield Partners (July 2014) Strategic Housing Market Assessment & Housing Needs Study
9
Figure 2.2:
Place of Work for Residents of Hyndburn 2011
Place of work
Commuting from Hyndburn
% of all commuting from
Hyndburn
Hyndburn
13,194
43.0%
Blackburn with Darwen
6,278
20.5%
Burnley
2,149
7.0%
Ribble Valley
1,923
6.3%
Rossendale
1,337
4.4%
851
2.8%
Pendle
Source: Census, 2011
2.9
It is also important to consider the workforce in Hyndburn, and the authorities from
which this is drawn. The following table summarises the residence of people working in
Hyndburn, highlighting that the circa 13,200 residents who live and work in the Borough
form around half of the total workforce. There are also important commuting inflows from
Blackburn with Darwen and Burnley, as well as notable inflows from Ribble Valley,
Rossendale and Pendle. Indeed, there is again a high level of containment within this
economic geography, with 87.5% of Hyndburn’s workforce drawn from this area.
Figure 2.3:
Place of Residence for Workers in Hyndburn 2011
Place of residence
Commuting to Hyndburn
% of all commuting to
Hyndburn
Hyndburn
13,194
50.9%
3,351
12.9%
Burnley
2,151
8.3%
Ribble Valley
1,433
5.5%
Rossendale
1,330
5.1%
Pendle
1,226
4.7%
2.10
The following plan draws together commuting flows both to and from Hyndburn, and
illustrates the major flows to and from the Borough based on the 2011 Census.
10
Figure 2.4:
Commuting Patterns 2011
Source: Census, 2011; Turley, 2015
2.11
Whilst this study has not been commissioned as a joint study, and will not directly
assess employment needs across the wider FEMA, to ensure it complies with the PPG it
will necessary to be fully cognisant of the role that these local authority areas play in the
wider economy through the analysis of the baseline economic conditions presented later
within this report.
11
3. Policy and Strategy Context
3.1
This section presents an overview of the strategic economic context and policy relevant
to Hyndburn Borough and the assessment of future economic development needs.
Consideration is first given to the national policy context. This is followed by further
consideration of sub-regional and local policy drivers, and specifically, priorities as
reflected in the Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) and various economic growth
programmes relevant to the Hyndburn and wider Pennine Lancashire economies.
National Policy Context
4
3.2
HM Treasury published ‘Fixing the Foundations’ in July 2015, which sets out the plan
for increasing national productivity and creating a more prosperous nation. The plan
establishes the importance of productivity growth alongside increased levels of
employment, which is the key to achieving a stronger nation with richer families and
improved living standards.
3.3
The Government’s approach to raising national levels of productivity focusses on two
elements:
3.4
•
Encouraging long-term investment in economic capital, including infrastructure,
skills and knowledge; and
•
Promoting a dynamic economy that encourages innovation and helps
5
resources flow to their most productive use .
These two high level drivers of productivity are based on fifteen topics identified as key
for the delivery of lasting development and growth. These key point range from investing
in business, skills, knowledge and economic infrastructure to ensuring flexible and fair
yet competitive markets and promoting the Northern Powerhouse.
Sub-regional Policy Context
3.5
Lancashire Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) has responsibility for co-ordinating
economic objectives for the geographical area covering Lancashire County. Hyndburn is
one of the 14 district authorities within the LEP area.
3.6
The LEP aims to make Lancashire the location for business growth and inward
investment. In order to achieve this the LEP identifies 5 key areas for development:
4
5
•
Raising the profile and visibility of Lancashire
•
Inward investment and strategic development
•
Business support
•
Supply chain and sector development
HM Treasury (July 2015) Fixing the Foundations: Creating a more prosperous nation
Ibid – Page 7
12
•
6
Skills development .
Lancashire Strategic Economic Plan
3.7
7
The LEP published the Lancashire Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) in March 2014 ,
which sets out a strategic vision for the LEP area:
“The overarching purpose of the SEP and Growth Deal is to re-establish Lancashire as
an economic powerhouse and a national centre of excellence in advanced
manufacturing by maximising its clear competitive strengths and capabilities in the
aerospace, automotive, energy and health science related sectors.
By realising the value of an arc of prosperity, which sweeps across Lancashire, the LEP
will harness the power and potential of our national industrial hotspots; our key strategic
sites; our key clusters of high value activity; and our internationally recognised centres
8
of excellence in research and innovation.”
3.8
Over the SEP period to 2025, the LEP aims to deliver 50,000 new jobs and £3 billion
additional economic activity above the local trend rate. The SEP is focused on unlocking
the full economic potential of Lancashire by tackling the areas weaknesses in attracting
new businesses and investment, delivering key strategic sites and enhancing enabling
transport infrastructure.
3.9
Lancashire's Growth Deal sets out the aims and objectives of the SEP in to a
programme of interventions focused around key priorities to strengthen the local
economy by creating the right conditions for business and investor growth, and unlock
new development and employment opportunities and promoting a competitive business
base.
European Structural and Investment Funds Strategy for Lancashire 201420
9
The European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) Strategy sets out the areas of
economic potential un addition to barriers to economic growth that need to be
addressed in Lancashire. The Strategy therefore sets out six priorities for ESIF:
•
Investing in Strategic infrastructure, Development and Environmental Resilience;
•
Boosting Business Growth and Innovation;
•
Promoting Growth sectors and Supply Chains;
•
Encouraging Inward investment and Marketing;
•
Driving the Skills for Growth; and
•
Creating opportunities for disadvantaged communities/groups.
6
http://www.lancashirelep.co.uk/
Lancashire Local Enterprise Partnership (March 2014) Lancashire Strategic Economic Plan - A Growth Deal for the
Arc of Prosperity
8
Ibid – Paragraphs 3.1 and 3.2
9
Lancashire Enterprise Partnership (January 2014) European Structural and Investment Funds Strategy for Lancashire
2014-20
7
13
3.10
ESIF will be used to support investment and development opportunities that will support
and unlock growth potential in the Lancashire economy, resulting in the creation and
safeguarding of jobs and GVA growth. ESIF will be used to encourage the formation of
dynamic new enterprises, the expansion of existing businesses, supporting innovation,
10
and the exploitation of the full economic potential of Lancashire's rural economy .
Pennine Lancashire Integrated Economic Strategy
3.11
3.12
Pennine Lancashire includes the six local authorities of Hyndburn, Blackburn with
Darwen, Burnley, Pendle, Ribble Valley and Rossendale. The Integrated Economic
11
Strategy highlights that the economy of Pennine Lancashire is underperforming when
compared to the economies of surrounding areas, particularly in relation to levels of
enterprise, self-employment and new business start-ups. As a result, the vision set out
for Pennine Lancashire is that by 2020 the area will:
•
Have narrowed the gap in economic performance between itself, the Lancashire
sub-region and the Northwest region
•
Demonstrate confidence and dynamism, mirrored in the attitudes and ambitions
of the community
•
Have high rates of new business start-ups and low business failure rates.
•
Be supported by an education and training system that reflects the economic
needs of the area
•
Be responsive to external economic pressures and new opportunities; technology
and innovation will feature strongly
•
Feature successful major projects and role models
•
Have much lower levels of deprivation and a much narrower gap between the
more and less prosperous areas.
•
Have strong links to other neighbouring economies, with local residents readily
able to access a wide range of employment opportunities
•
Enjoy a business support infrastructure of the highest quality .
12
The Strategy recognises that the Pennine Lancashire economy already contains
significant employment in sectors where there is notable potential for growth, including
aerospace,
advanced
manufacturing/advanced
flexible
materials,
medical/health/fitness/social care and well-being and creative industries. However, there
are other sectors such as business services and the visitor and tourism sector that are
growing nationally and could be targeted in Pennine Lancashire.
10
Ibid - Page 46
Pennine Lancashire (2009) Pennine Lancashire Integrated Economic Strategy
12
Ibid – Page 13
11
14
3.13
The Strategy also recognises that strengthening the competitiveness of the existing
manufacturing base is also important for economic growth. The development of these
sectors could potentially increase wage levels and to reduce the GVA deficit in the area.
Pennine Lancashire Investment Plan
13
3.14
The Pennine Lancashire Investment Plan sets out the key strategic priorities for the
Pennine Lancashire area. The Plan recognises the benefits of creating the right
environment for investment, sustainable growth to promote business and economic
development and increase employment opportunities for local people in Lancashire.
3.15
The plan sets out various aspirations for Pennine Lancashire and identifies a number of
strategic development sites which collectively have the potential to deliver 25,000 jobs,
half a billion GVA to the economy and up to 15,000 new homes if brought forward by
2020.
3.16
Strategic development sites that are identified as offering the potential to positively
influence the economy of Hyndburn – and in turn wider Pennine Lancashire area include:
•
Rishton M65 – strategic employment led mixed use site at Whitebirk
14
incorporating high quality commercial uses with the potential to support 2,000
jobs.
•
Clayton – mixed use development of 42 acres including commercial space and
new homes. The development will support 300 construction jobs, 1,300
operational jobs and contribute £31 million GVA to the local economy.
•
Huncoat – mixed use development of 96 acres including residential, recreation
and commercial provision. The development will support 750 construction jobs,
3,000 operational jobs and contribute £120 million GVA to the local economy.
Other programmes
3.17
The following initiatives also set out the economic context and identify areas of
economic need and development.
•
M65 Growth Corridor Funding – investment in improving junctions along the
M65 aims to tackle issues of congestion which will boost economic growth by
extending coverage across areas of Lancashire and enabling access to key
strategic employment sites across the districts of Burnley, Pendle and Hyndburn.
•
Lancashire Skills Support – a £5.6m programme launched in September 2014
that funds accredited workplace courses and training for businesses and their
16
employees. The programme focuses on 8 priority sectors and aims to enhance
the skills of the Lancashire’s workforce, assist businesses in achieving growth
aspirations and develop Lancashire as a place for economic growth.
15
13
Pennine Lancashire (2013) Pennine Lancashire Investment Plan
Planning application for Whitebirk (Frontier Park) estimates the creation of 1,950 jobs
15
http://www.lancashireskillssupport.co.uk/
16
Priority sectors include: aerospace; advanced engineering and manufacturing; energy, environment and low carbon;
financial and professional services; creative and digital; leisure, tourism and visitor economy; health occupations; and
professional, scientific and technical occupations.
14
15
•
Regional Growth Fund (RGF) – a competitive Government fund focussed on
investing in the private sector. The fund supports eligible projects and
programmes that aim to create new employment opportunities and contribute
towards economic growth. In Lancashire, the RGF is funding projects such as:
Lancashire Business Growth Fund
Accelerating Business Growth
The Alliance Project
•
Accelerating Business Growth (ABG) – a competitive grant scheme that will
help to fund business growth projects across Lancashire which commit to creating
significant numbers of jobs, generating additional investment from other sources,
and having a major impact on the Lancashire economy.
•
Lancashire LEAP – a programme offering a range of specialist support, including
coaching, financial, international trade, HR and mentoring support, to new
businesses that have been trading for less than 3 years.
•
Boost Business Lancashire – a Business Growth Hub (ended July 2015) aimed
at helping businesses to start-up and realise growth ambitions through providing
support in aspects such as leadership development and growth planning
mentoring.
•
Fuse Fund – is a capital grant investment scheme for new businesses in
Lancashire that have been trading less than 3 years. The Fund helps to finance
growth projects that aim to create new jobs and investment, including growth
projects such as machinery acquisition, property improvement, building
expansions and infrastructure improvement.
•
Assisted Area Status (AAS) – Areas of Hyndburn have been allocated AAS,
enabling businesses in these areas to obtain financial support under European
Commission state aid rules. The benefits of AAS include including grants, loans,
tax allowances and the use or sale of a state asset for free or at less than market
price.
•
The Superfast Lancashire Project – Superfast Lancashire is a partnership
between Lancashire County Council and BT, with additional funding from the
Government’s Broadband Delivery UK, the European Regional Development
Fund, Blackburn with Darwen Council and Blackpool. The Superfast Lancashire
Project aims to extend high-speed broadband to 97% of the county’s homes and
businesses by the end of 2015. In addition, a Business Support Centre has
opened as part of Superfast Lancashire, which provides advice to small and
medium-sized businesses across Lancashire on how to use the new technology
to enhance their business.
16
Local Policy Context
Hyndburn Core Strategy
3.18
17
The Hyndburn Core Strategy , adopted in January 2012, sets out a vision for
Hyndburn:
“By 2026, Hyndburn should be a distinctive, prosperous and vibrant area of Pennine
Lancashire … Through sustainable economic growth, the Borough will provide much
sought after lifestyle with more skilled local and specialist jobs in the market towns and
townships and higher level opportunities elsewhere in the Borough, including the
strategic regional employment site at Whitebirk, to serve local needs and the sub
18
regional centres of Burnley and Blackburn. ”
3.19
The Core Strategy highlights that the economy of Hyndburn currently operates
significantly below its economic potential, therefore emphasising the need to grow and
develop the local economy.
3.20
The strategic economic objective highlighted in the Core Strategy aims to
“create greater opportunities for all to access improved economic opportunities and to
19
provide support for the local economy and higher wage employment ”
3.21
Specific economic and employment focused priorities for Hyndburn identified in order to
achieve the strategic objective include:
•
Provision of sufficient land for the growth of existing businesses and to attract
new higher value employment to the Borough. Sites will be developed in
sustainable locations forming part of existing townships and at the Strategic
Employment Site at Whitebirk.
•
Developing a higher wage economy to help close the GVA gap and to retain
skilled and qualified people within the Borough.
•
Developing Accrington and Great Harwood as vibrant floral market towns with a
wide variety of shops where people choose to spend their leisure time.
•
Encouraging employers to address worklessness in the Borough .
20
3.22
Policy E1: Future Employment Provision sets out the need to deliver approximately 58
hectares employment land over the period 2011-2026 for employment uses B1, B2 and
B8 to meet the requirements of the Borough.
3.23
In addition to ensuring there is a substantial supply of employment land through the
delivery of new sites, Policy E2: Protection, Modernisation and Development of
Employment Sites identifies the importance of enhancing the quality of existing
employment sites.
17
18
19
20
Hyndburn Borough Council (2012) The Core Strategy
Ibid – Paragraph 3.2
Ibid – Page 31
Ibid – Page 31
17
4. Economic Baseline
4.1
This section assesses the current composition of the Hyndburn economy and
performance on a number of key economic and labour market indicators. This includes
a review of historic trends relating to employment, the business base and sectorial
change to identify local drivers of change and assess the area’s track record in
delivering growth in pre and post recessionary periods.
4.2
Recognising that the scale and capacity of the labour market are key factors influencing
the ability of an area like Hyndburn to capture economic growth, consideration is also
given to the composition of the labour market, and in particular the skills, occupational
profile and associated wages of the labour force.
Employment trends
4.3
Understanding historic growth trends and the current structure of the economy provides
an indication of how the local economy in Hyndburn has changed over recent years, and
also suggests how employment growth may be achieved in future.
4.4
Data from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) is available to cover the pre-recession
period from 1998 to 2008, and the following graph shows annual change in the number
of employees in Hyndburn. There was an overall decline in the number of jobs in the
Borough over this period, with the average loss of 175 jobs per annum. Whilst there
were periods of growth – particularly between 2005 and 2007 – most years saw a fall in
the number of employees in Hyndburn, most notably in 1998/99.
Figure 4.1:
Historic Change in Employees 1998 – 2008
1,500
1,000
Annual Change
500
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
-2,000
Average Annual Change (1998 - 2008)
Source: ABI
18
4.5
The following graph compares this change to the national and regional rate – as well as
Pennine Lancashire and the wider county – by indexing change to 1998, and this
illustrates the relative underperformance of the Hyndburn economy during the prerecession period.
Figure 4.2:
Indexed Change in Employees 1998 – 2008
1.15
1.1
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
0.85
0.8
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Hyndburn
Pennine Lancashire
North West
England
2005
2006
2007
2008
Lancashire
Source: ABI
4.6
This change is broken down by sector, allowing an understanding of which sectors
drove this overall decline in employees in Hyndburn. This is summarised in the following
table, based on the 2003 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC).
19
Table 4.1:
Historic Change in Employees by Sector 1998 – 2008
Sector (SIC2003)
Total
Change
1998 –
2008
% Change Average
1998 –
Per
2008
Annum
(over 10
years)
Education
1,449
73%
145
Health and social work
1,350
50%
135
Real estate, renting and business activities
901
55%
90
Other community, social and personal service activities
472
70%
47
Agriculture, hunting and forestry
200
345%
20
Financial intermediation
183
54%
18
Transport, storage and communication
139
14%
14
Electricity, gas and water supply
128
85%
13
Construction
119
10%
12
Fishing
0
0%
0
Private households with employed persons
0
0%
0
Extra-territorial organisation and bodies
0
0%
0
Mining and quarrying
-2
-67%
-0.2
-200
-3%
-20
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
-615
-36%
-62
Hotels and restaurants
-1,607
-52%
-161
Hyndburn
-1,747
-6%
-175
Manufacturing
-4,262
-46%
-426
Wholesale and retail trade
21
Source: ABI
4.7
As shown, the loss of over 4,200 manufacturing jobs over this period – seeing the sector
contract by around 46% – had a significant impact on the local economy, and was a key
driver in the overall job losses seen in Hyndburn. There were also significant losses in
the hotels and restaurants sector. There was, however, growth in other sectors, most
notably in education, health and social work. These sectors did not grow to the extent
required to offset the substantial declines seen in other sectors, however.
4.8
The ABI was replaced by the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) from
2009, and – while not directly comparable with the ABI data – allows an assessment of
more recent change in employment in Hyndburn. This suggests that the number of
21
Includes repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods
20
employees in Hyndburn has fallen by 224 annually between 2009 and 2013, with the
only increase seen between 2010 and 2011.
Table 4.2:
Historic Change in Employees 2009 – 2013
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Employees
27,004
25,672
26,755
26,515
26,109
Change
–
-1,332
1,083
-240
-406
Average per
annum
-223
Source: BRES
4.9
The following table summarises more recent change by sector, illustrating sectors which
have seen the greatest change since 2009. This highlights that the wholesale and retail
trade and ICT sectors saw the greatest growth in employees over this period, although
these continued to be offset by declines in sectors including arts, entertainment and
recreation and manufacturing. The latter continues the long-term decline seen in the
Borough since at least 1998.
Table 4.3:
Historic Change in Employees by Sector 2009 – 2013
Growth Sectors 2009 – 13
Decline Sectors 2009 – 13
300
Arts, entertainment and recreation
-374
Information and communication
231
Manufacturing
-285
Construction
147
Accommodation and food services
-243
Electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply
136
Human health and social work
activities
-236
Transportation and storage
128
Water supply
22
-214
Source: BRES
4.10
ONS published the latest jobs density estimates for 2013 in April 2015. Jobs density is
defined as the number of jobs in an area divided by the resident population aged 16-64
in that area. For example, a job density of 1.0 would mean that there is one job for every
resident aged 16-64.
4.11
Evidence suggests that in Hyndburn in 2013 there was less than 1 job per working age
resident, with a job density rate of 0.63. The density in Hyndburn is higher than the job
density in the Pennine Lancashire authorities of Rossendale (0.55) and Pendle (0.61),
albeit lower than the density within the remaining Pennine Lancashire authorities,
Lancashire, the North West region and England. Ribble Valley maintains the highest job
density at 1.03, which is somewhat higher than the regional and national averages of
0.77 and 0.80, respectively. This is presented in the following table.
22
Includes sewerage, waste management and remediation activities
21
Table 4.4:
2013 Job Density
2013 Job density
Hyndburn
0.63
0.77
Burnley
0.70
Pendle
0.61
Ribble Valley
1.03
Rossendale
0.55
Lancashire
0.77
North West
0.77
England
0.80
Source: ONS Job Density, 2015
4.12
Given this recent change, it is important to establish the current profile of employment in
the Borough, highlighting key sectors in the local economy. This is summarised in the
following table, and shows that the wholesale and retail trade accommodates
approximately one in four employees in Hyndburn. Manufacturing also remains a key
employer – despite significant declines over recent years – while education, human
health and social work activities are also key employment sectors.
22
Table 4.5:
Sectorial Profile 2013
Total Employees
%
6,356
24%
Manufacturing
4,774
18%
Human health and social work activities
3,675
14%
Education
3,024
12%
Construction
1,226
5%
Administrative and support service activities
1,113
4%
Accommodation and food service activities
1,067
4%
922
4%
Professional, scientific and technical
activities
858
3%
Public administration and defence
753
3%
612
2%
Other service activities
487
2%
1,241
5%
26,108
–
Other
23
Total
Source: BRES
4.13
Finally, it is beneficial to understand how sectors are represented in Hyndburn relative to
the regional, national and Pennine Lancashire economy. The following chart therefore
presents location quotients for Hyndburn, which shows how the proportionate
contribution of each sector in Hyndburn compares to the economies of wider comparator
areas. A quotient greater than 1 suggests that a sector is over-represented (specialised)
relative to the wider area and a quotient less than 1 suggests under-representation.
23
Arts, entertainment and recreation; financial and insurance activities; real estate activities; electricity, gas, steam and
air conditioning supply; water supply; agriculture, forestry and fishing; activities of households as employers; activities of
extraterritorial organisations and bodies; mining and quarrying
23
Figure 4.3:
Hyndburn Location Quotients 2013
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
Water supply; sewerage, waste management
and remediation activities
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor
vehicles and motorcycles
Accommodation and food service activities
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Professional, scientific and technical activities
Administrative and support service activities
Public administration and defence; compulsory
social security
Education
Human health and social work activities
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Other service activities
Activities of households as
employers;undifferentiated goods-and…
Activities of extraterritorial organisations and
bodies
0.00
Hyndburn: Pennine Lancashire
1.00
2.00
Hyndburn: North West
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Hyndburn: England
Source: BRES
4.14
Relative to England, it is clear that manufacturing and wholesale and retail are
particularly over-represented in Hyndburn, with education, utilities and construction also
seeing a quotient also over-represented, along with human health and social work at a
24
smaller scale. With the exception of the latter, these sections are also over-represented
compared to the wider North West economy. There are, however, also several
industries that are under-represented in Hyndburn, most notably agriculture,
professional and financial services.
4.15
Relative to Pennine Lancashire, several sectors have a stronger representation in the
local Hyndburn economy, most notably utilities, although this remains a relatively small
part of the overall economy of the Borough. Retail, construction, agriculture and
transport and storage also play a slightly greater role in the local economy, compared to
Pennine Lancashire as a whole.
GVA
4.16
Gross value added (GVA) is a key measure of productivity in the local economy, and
analysis of Experian data can show how this has changed historically in Hyndburn. As
the following graph shows, GVA increased considerably between 2000 and 2004 –
growing by around 25% over this period – before largely stabilising.
Figure 4.4:
Historic Change in GVA
£1,250
£1,200
GVA (£million)
£1,150
£1,100
£1,050
£1,000
£950
£900
£850
£800
Source: Experian, 2015
4.17
This can also be broken down by sector, and the following graph shows how the
contribution of different sectors has changed over this period.
25
Figure 4.5:
Historic Change in GVA by Sector
£1,400
£1,200
GVA (£million)
£1,000
£800
£600
£400
£200
£0
Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Construction
Extraction & Mining
Finance & Insurance
Information & communication
Manufacturing
Professional & Other Private Services
Public Services
Transport & storage
Utilities
Wholesale & Retail
4.18
It is clear that manufacturing has historically been a key contributor to the local
economy, which – though declining – remains an important sector in Hyndburn. The
contribution of the service sector – both public and particularly professional services –
has grown, while wholesale and retail also remains a significant contributor. These
sectors each accounted for around 20% of total GVA in 2013.
4.19
This is further considered in the following table, which shows proportionate growth in
different sectors in Hyndburn. Various periods are presented, covering a period of
sustained national economic growth (1998 – 2008), a more recessionary climate (2009
– 2013) and the period as a whole, from 1998 to 2013.
26
Table 4.6:
Proportionate Change in GVA by Sector
1998 –
2008
2009 –
2013
1998 –
2013
Accommodation, Food Services & Recreation
-12.9%
-3.6%
-17.8%
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
8.9%
-8.0%
-5.8%
Construction
-4.8%
-8.8%
-23.9%
Extraction & Mining
-31.9%
-34.5%
-59.6%
Finance & Insurance
125.5%
-26.4%
80.0%
Information & Communication
103.6%
22.4%
157.4%
Manufacturing
-6.8%
-4.2%
-19.4%
113.4%
6.1%
131.9%
Public Services
48.8%
0.6%
55.8%
Transport & Storage
-0.3%
-21.7%
-30.7%
Utilities
15.1%
-12.7%
-9.5%
Wholesale & Retail
18.3%
-7.2%
10.1%
Total GVA
26.8%
-2.9%
20.0%
4.20
Proportionately, extraction and mining has seen the greatest decline (from a low base)
in GVA contribution in Hyndburn, with manufacturing, accommodation and food
services, construction and transport and storage also seeing sustained declines across
all of the periods analysed above.
4.21
However, this has been offset by significant growth in information and communication,
professional, and other private services and public services. These sectors also saw
growth throughout the recession, although the Borough as a whole saw a decline in
productivity during this period. The finance and insurance sector also experienced
notable growth to 2008 but has been clearly affected by the recession.
27
Business Base
4.22
In order to assess the characteristics of Hyndburn’s business base, 2014 evidence
provided by ONS has been utilised. The ‘UK Business: Activity, Size and Location’
dataset provides information on the total number of businesses in the whole UK
economy in March 2014.
4.23
In March 2014, there were 2,055 businesses in Hyndburn, accounting for 13% of the
Pennine Lancashire business base and representing the lowest number of businesses
out of the six Pennine Lancashire authorities.
4.24
Table 4.7 shows that the greatest proportion of businesses in Hyndburn operate within
the manufacturing industry, accounting for 250 businesses or 12.2% of all businesses,
in addition to a high proportion in the construction industry, accounting for 11.9% of all
businesses. The proportion of manufacturing businesses currently operating in
Hyndburn is somewhat higher than the wider averages, with the average for Pennine
Lancashire standing at 9.8% of all businesses, an average of 7.3% across Lancashire,
6.4% across the North West and 5.6% on average in England. Although, the proportion
of businesses operating in the construction industry in Hyndburn is broadly in line with
the wider averages.
4.25
A high percentage of businesses in Hyndburn also operate within the retail industry,
accounting for 11.2% of all businesses. Retail businesses in Hyndburn are overrepresented relative to the wider areas of the North West (9.8%) and England (8.3%),
yet are broadly in line with the proportion of retail businesses across Pennine
Lancashire (11.6%) and Lancashire (10.4%).
4.26
However, businesses operating in the professional, scientific and technical and
information and communication industries are somewhat under-represented relative to
the wider averages. This is presented in the following table.
28
Table 4.7:
Business Enterprises by Industry 2014
Industry
Hyndburn
Pennine
Lancashire
Lancashire
North
West
England
Agriculture, forestry &
fishing
65
3.2%
6.4%
8.1%
5.3%
5.0%
Mining, quarrying &
utilities
20
1.0%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
Manufacturing
250
12.2%
9.8%
7.3%
6.4%
5.6%
Construction
245
11.9%
10.9%
12.1%
11.2%
11.7%
Motor trades
95
4.6%
4.1%
4.2%
3.4%
3.0%
Wholesale
130
6.3%
6.3%
5.3%
5.1%
4.7%
Retail
230
11.2%
11.6%
10.4%
9.8%
8.3%
Transport & storage
(inc postal)
85
4.1%
3.2%
3.7%
3.4%
3.2%
Accommodation &
food services
155
7.5%
6.3%
6.0%
6.2%
5.6%
Information &
communication
65
3.2%
3.7%
4.8%
5.9%
8.5%
Financial & insurance
40
1.9%
2.3%
1.9%
2.5%
2.1%
Property
75
3.6%
3.4%
3.5%
3.8%
3.8%
Professional, scientific
& technical
200
9.7%
12.1%
13.2%
16.7%
18.0%
Business
administration &
support services
120
5.8%
6.6%
6.5%
6.8%
7.2%
Public administration &
defence
0
0.0%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.3%
Education
30
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
Health
120
5.8%
5.3%
4.6%
4.9%
4.3%
Arts, entertainment,
recreation & other
services
130
6.3%
6.0%
6.2%
6.4%
6.5%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Total Business
Enterprises
2,055 100.0%
Source: Activity, Size, Location
29
Size profile of the business base
4.27
Data on the size profile of the business base in March 2014 is also available through
‘UK Business: Activity, Size and Location’ dataset.
4.28
The size profile of Hyndburn’s businesses demonstrates a slightly higher representation
of small sized (10 - 49 employees) businesses at 12.9%, when compared to the 11%
average across Pennine Lancashire, 10.5% across Lancashire, 10.6% across the North
West and 9.5% across England. The number of micro businesses in Hyndburn is slightly
lower, at 84.4%, than the wider averages ranging from 86.8% to 88.4%.
4.29
Nevertheless, it is clear that the size of the business base in Hyndburn is largely in line
with the profile for Pennine Lancashire, the LEP and the national economy, with 97% of
businesses being Micro and Small businesses employing up to 49 people. However,
across Hyndburn, there are some 55 medium and large employers, which, whilst only
accounting for 3% of the business units, make an important contribution to the area in
terms of total employment.
Table 4.8:
Businesses by size band 2014
Micro
Small
Medium
Large
(0 – 9)
(10 – 49)
(50 – 249 )
(250+)
Hyndburn (Total Businesses )
1,735
265
45
10
Hyndburn (%)
84.4%
12.9%
2.2%
0.5%
Pennine Lancashire
86.8%
11.0%
2.0%
0.4%
Lancashire
87.4%
10.5%
1.7%
0.4%
North West
87.2%
10.6%
1.8%
0.4%
England
88.4%
9.5%
1.7%
0.4%
Source: Activity, Size, Location
Change in the business base
4.30
It is also important to understand the historic change in Hyndburn’s business base. The
Business Demography statistical dataset published by ONS provides information on
registered active UK enterprises and the births and deaths of enterprises. This dataset
replaces the VAT Registrations statistics published by the Department for Business,
Innovation and Skills (BIS) and does not provide data comparable to that set out above
as it is based solely on the individual enterprises as opposed to individual enterprises
and local units.
4.31
According to Business Demography statistics, in 2013 there were approximately 2,340
active businesses (enterprises) in Hyndburn. Over the period from 2004 to 2013, the
number of businesses in Hyndburn increased by 45, demonstrating growth of 2.0%. This
growth is notably low in comparison to the level of growth seen across the wider
comparator areas, as summarised in the following Table.
4.32
Across Pennine Lancashire, the level of growth in businesses varied across the six local
authorities. The greatest level of growth was seen in Blackburn with Darwen, where the
30
number of businesses increased by 10.4% over the period from 2004 – 2013, and the
second highest increase was seen in Burnley, with 6.9% growth. This contrasts to the
low level of growth seen in Pendle, at just 0.7%, over the same period.
Table 4.9:
Business growth 2004 – 2013
2004
2013
Total Change
2004 - 2013
% Change
2004 – 2013
Hyndburn
2,295
2,340
45
2.0%
Pennine Lancashire
16,750
17,645
895
5.3%
Lancashire County
40,380
41,330
950
2.4%
North West
214,085
240,075
25,990
12.1%
England
1,885,265
2,140,985
255,720
13.6%
Source: Business Demography
4.33
Interestingly the majority (895 of 950) net change in businesses in Lancashire County
has been in Pennine Lancashire. However, Hyndburn has not capitalised on this and
growth has occurred elsewhere in the Pennine Lancashire authorities.
4.34
When the size of the business base in Hyndburn is compared to the size of the working
age population, it shows that area has a much lower business density, at 47 businesses
per 1,000 people, than the averages across the wider comparator areas. This is
presented in the following figure.
Figure 4.6:
Business density 2013
Business Density (per 1,000 WA poppulation)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
England
North West
Lancashire
County
Pennine
Lancashire
Hyndburn
Source: Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
31
Business start-up rates
4.35
4.36
Based on the statistics over the period from 2004 to 2013, whilst the number of business
start-ups in Hyndburn has fluctuated - with business start-ups declining by around a
third during the recession - the number of business start-ups in 2013 is at 2004 levels
(310 businesses). The increase in business start-ups between 2012 and 2013 could
reflect two things:
(i)
people had been, or faced the threat of being, made redundant and so
established their own business
(ii)
the economy of Hyndburn is showing signs of recovery following the
economic recession.
Hyndburn has broadly followed the trend seen across Pennine Lancashire, particularly
since 2010. Statistics for Lancashire County show that despite growth in the number of
business start-ups increasing from 2012 to 2013, the figure remains lower than in 2004.
However, start-ups across the North West and England have increased on average by
716 and 6,702 per annum and are now above 2004 levels. This is set out in the
following figure.
Figure 4.7:
Indexed Business Start-ups 2004-2013
1.4
1.2
Index (2004 = 1)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
England
North West
Pennine Lancashire
Hyndburn
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Lancashire County
4.37
The business start-up rate in Hyndburn stood at 13.2% of all businesses in 2013, whilst
the regional and national average rates stood at 14.7% and 14.4%, respectively. Prerecession, Hyndburn maintained a higher business start-up rate than on average
nationally, although since 2010 Hyndburn has sustained lower than national average
rates.
32
Business deaths
4.38
The business death rate in Hyndburn in 2013, at 9.2% of all businesses, was lower than
the wider averages and in particular the North West average of 10.1% of all businesses.
4.39
Hyndburn maintained a strong performance pre-recession between 2006 and 2008, with
death rates as low as 8.6%, and continued to maintain lower than average death rates
during the recession years of 2009 and 2010. Death Rates in Hyndburn increased
significantly during 2012, reaching rates above the wider averages for the first time
since 2005, before declining again in 2013. This is demonstrated in the figure below.
Figure 4.8:
Business Death Rate 2004 – 2013
Proportion of all businesses
14.0%
13.0%
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
England
North West
Pennine Lancashire
Hyndburn
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Lancashire County
Population and labour force
Population
4.40
An assessment of population provides a valuable indicator of the socio-economic vitality
of an area, highlighting growth or decline over the time period between the decennial
Census of Population. This allows identification of changes in population size, age and
structure as shown in the following table.
33
Table 4.10:
Population Change 2001 – 2011
2001
2011
Total Change
2001 - 2011
% Change
Hyndburn
81,496
80,734
-762
-0.9%
Pennine
Lancashire
517,368
529,848
12,480
2.4%
North West
6,729,764
7,052,177
322,413
4.8%
England
49,138,831
53,012,456
3,873,625
7.9%
Source: Census, 2011; 2001
4.41
The population in Hyndburn declined by 762 (0.9%) residents over the previous ten year
period from 2001 – 2011, whilst generally across the country levels of population have
seen an increase. The national average increase in population over the same period
stands at 7.9%, at 4.8% across the North West region and at 2.4% across Pennine
Lancashire.
Age Structure
4.42
Age is an important indicator in determining the socio-economic structure of the
population, and particularly the number of residents of working age who can contribute
to the labour force and potentially be available for employment.
4.43
The following table illustrates the structure of the population within Hyndburn, the North
West region and England.
Table 4.11:
Age Profile 2011
Under 15
16 to 24
25 to 44
45 to 64
Over 65
Hyndburn
20.6%
11.4%
26.8%
25.4%
15.9%
Pennine
Lancashire
20.8%
11.3%
26.5%
25.9%
15.6%
North West
18.8%
12.2%
26.4%
26.0%
16.6%
England
18.9%
11.9%
27.5%
25.4%
16.3%
4.44
In Hyndburn, the 2011 Census
population, is aged 16 to 64. This
for the North West and England,
64.8%, respectively, although is
63.6%.
highlights that 51,283 residents, or 63.5% of the
proportion is slightly lower than the equivalent figures
which exhibit working age populations of 64.6% and
in line with the average for Pennine Lancashire at
4.45
It is evident that Hyndburn has a young population, with a higher than average
population aged less than 15 years, at 20.6% of the total population. This represents the
potential future source of labour in Hyndburn.
34
Economic Activity
4.46
A person is deemed economically active if they are either in employment, or not in
employment but seeking work and ready to start within two weeks, or waiting to start a
job already obtained. Similarly, economic inactivity can, therefore, be a measure of the
number of residents not in employment, or not actively looking for employment.
4.47
Local data on economic activity can be compared to national and regional benchmarks
to determine whether there is a high or low rate of activity, highlighting the size of latent
labour force either currently employed or available to start work immediately.
4.48
The Annual Population Survey (APS) provides an indicator of the number of
economically active residents in an area based on responses received during the period
from January 2014 to December 2014, and considers the economic activity rate for all
residents aged 16 - 64.
Table 4.12:
Economic Activity (Jan 2014 - Dec 2014)
24
Hyndburn
Pennine
Lancashire
North West
England
Economically active residents
35,500
235,100
3,348,200
26,436,900
Economic activity rate
70.9%
71.6%
74.6%
77.4%
Employed residents
32,100
213,500
3,106,500
24,755,600
Employment rate
64.2%
65.0%
69.2%
72.5%
Unemployment rate
9.6%
-
7.2%
6.4%
23.7%
24.8%
25.0%
% of economically inactive who 31.6%
want a job
Source: APS, 2015
4.49
The latest APS data suggests that the proportion of economically active residents within
Hyndburn, at 70.9%, is lower than at the wider regional and national levels, where
economic activity accounts for 74.6% and 77.4% of residents aged 16 – 64,
respectively. Employment rates in Hyndburn are also lower than the wider averages
with less than 2 in 3 residents aged 16 – 64 in employment, compared to 72.5% of
residents on average nationally.
4.50
The rate of unemployment across Hyndburn is identified as being significantly higher
than the wider comparator areas, with the APS suggesting that level of unemployment is
1.5 times that of the national average. Unemployment in Hyndburn has increased at a
faster rate than the comparator areas since January 2014 to December 2014, with 4.2%
more residents being recorded as unemployed, compared to 2.5% at the regional level
and 1.6% at the national level.
4.51
The APS also provides an indication of the proportion of economically inactive residents
who want a job, potentially highlighting a sizeable latent labour force in the regional
24
Where data is not provided information is not available.
35
impact area. In Hyndburn, almost a third of residents that are currently economically
inactive want a job, at 31.6%, which is significant when compared to 24.8% of
economically inactive residents across the North West and 25.0% in England. The
proportion of economically inactive residents that want a job has increased significantly
over the past 10 years in Hyndburn, with just 18.9% of economically inactive residents
wanting a job in 2004.
Full time and part time work
4.52
The Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) provides data on the proportion
of employee jobs that are full-time and part-time across Hyndburn, the six Pennine
Lancashire authorities and the North West Region. Evidence suggests that a higher
proportion of employee jobs in Hyndburn are full-time, at 72.6%, compared to the wider
North West region at 67.7%. In relation to the comparator authorities within Pennine
Lancashire, Hyndburn maintains the third highest proportion of full-time employee jobs,
behind Ribble Valley (73.2%) and Pendle (73.1%). This is presented in the following
table.
Table 4.13:
Employee Jobs 2014
Full-Time
Part-Time
Hyndburn
72.6%
27.4%
66.7%
33.3%
Burnley
67.3%
32.7%
Pendle
73.1%
26.9%
Ribble Valley
73.2%
26.8%
Rossendale
71.9%
28.1%
Pennine Lancashire
69.9%
30.1%
North West
67.7%
32.3%
Source: BRES, 2014
Qualifications and Skills
4.53
Whilst skills requirements differ by business sector and occupational groups, being able
to access a pool of suitably qualified and experienced workers is important to both new
and existing businesses, including those who are well established within an area and
seeking to grow. It is also likely to influence the type of businesses attracted to
Hyndburn, in addition to the type of employment land that is required.
4.54
It is therefore important to understand the skills profile of the local workforce. The
qualification levels identified in the 2011 Census are set out below.
•
No qualifications.
•
Level 1 qualification – 1+’O’ level passes, 1+ CSE/GCSE any grades, NVQ level
1, or Foundation level GNVQ.
36
4.55
•
Level 2 qualification – 5+’O’ level passes, 5+ CSE (grade 1), 5+ GCSEs (grade A
– C), School Certificate, 1+’A’ levels/’AS’ levels, NVQ level 2, or Intermediate
GNVQ.
•
Apprenticeship.
•
Level 3 qualification – 2+ ‘A’ levels, 4+ ‘AS’ levels, Higher School Certificate, NVQ
level 3, or Advanced GNVQ.
•
Level 4/5 qualification – first degree, higher degree, NVQ levels 4 and 5, HNC,
HND, qualified teacher, medical doctor, dentist, nurse, midwife or health visitor.
•
Other qualification: Vocational/Work-related Qualifications, Qualifications gained
outside the UK (Not stated/ level unknown).
The following table provides an indication of the qualifications and skills profile of
residents aged 16 and over in Hyndburn, the North West region and England.
Table 4.14:
Qualifications and Skills 2011
Hyndburn
Pennine
Lancashire
North West England
No qualifications
28.0%
26.8%
24.8%
22.5%
Level 1
13.8%
13.7%
13.6%
13.3%
Level 2
16.2%
15.6%
15.8%
15.2%
Apprenticeship
5.5%
4.6%
3.9%
3.6%
Level 3
12.5%
12.3%
12.9%
12.4%
Level 4/5
18.9%
21.8%
24.4%
27.4%
Other qualifications
4.9%
5.2%
4.5%
5.7%
4.56
Evidence for Hyndburn suggests that a notable proportion of the population, at 28.0% of
all residents aged 16 and over, possess no qualifications when compared to the national
average of 22.5% of residents aged 16 and over. The population in Hyndburn also has a
much lower proportion of residents qualified at Level 4 and above, at 18.9%, than the
Pennine Lancashire average of 21.8% and the regional and national average
proportions of 24.4% and 27.4%, respectively.
4.57
The occupational profile of Hyndburn shows the types of jobs held by residents. This is
sourced from the APS for the period from January 2014 to December 2014, with the
analysis based upon the nine major groups of the Standard Occupational Classifications
(SOC). This is presented in the following table.
Occupations and Earnings
37
Table 4.15:
Occupation of Employment (Jan 2014 - Dec 2014)
Occupation
Hyndburn
25
Pennine
Lancashire
North
West
England
Managers, directors & senior officials 10.7%
9.5%
9.6%
10.4%
Professional occupations
12.8%
15.6%
18.6%
19.9%
Associate professional & technical
4.5%
11.2%
12.3%
14.3%
Administrative & secretarial
9.8%
8.1%
11.1%
10.7%
Skilled trades
14.8%
13.4%
11.0%
10.5%
Caring, leisure & other services
19.4%
11.8%
9.9%
9.1%
Sales & customer services
8.8%
-
8.7%
7.7%
Process, plant & machine operatives 11.9%
-
7.0%
6.3%
Elementary occupations
9.9%
11.0%
10.7%
6.1%
Source: APS, 2015
4.58
For Hyndburn, a high proportion of employed residents work in caring leisure and other
service occupations, at 19.4%, this is more than twice the national average proportion.
Employment in process, plant and machine operative occupations is also significant in
comparison to the wider areas. However, elementary occupations are below average.
4.59
There are relatively few residents employed in the three main professional occupational
groups in Hyndburn, with just 28.0% of residents working in the higher paid managerial,
professional and technical occupations, compared to the greater proportion of 36.3% of
the population across Pennine Lancashire, 40.5% across the North West and 44.6% on
average in England. Associate professional and technical occupations are also less than
half of levels seen elsewhere.
4.60
Earnings can provide an indication of the strength of the local economy, given their
relationship with wider economic factors such as gross value added (GVA) and
productivity. Earnings levels also have a relationship with prosperity and as such the
economic well-being of residents.
4.61
The following table summarises average (median) earnings for full-time workers in the
comparator areas of Hyndburn, the North West region and England, sourced from the
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). Weekly and annual pay for residents in
each location and workplace based pay is provided below, with data gaps representing
where figures have been suppressed as they are statistically unreliable.
25
Where data is not provided information is not available.
38
Table 4.16:
Average (Median) Earnings 2014
Resident Analysis
Workplace Analysis
Area
Weekly Pay
(gross)
Annual Pay
(gross)
Weekly Pay
(gross)
Annual Pay
(gross)
Hyndburn
£425
-
£417
£22,030
Pennine
Lancashire
£475
-
£456
-
North West
£485
£25,292
£483
£25,229
England
£524
£27,500
£523
£27,487
Source: ASHE, 2014
4.62
Average resident based wages in Hyndburn are lower than the average wages across
Pennine Lancashire, the North West and England. The average pay for residents in
Hyndburn is greater than the average workplace pay, suggesting that a proportion of
residents commute out of the authority to access higher paid jobs and that Hyndburn
has a comparatively weaker jobs market.
Deprivation
4.63
An analysis of patterns of deprivation has been undertaken using the Indices of Multiple
Deprivation (IMD), produced by ONS and calculated through consideration of indicators
such as income, employment, health, education and crime. This is a national index,
which enables direct and consistent comparisons to be made between all areas of
England through consideration of relative levels of multiple deprivation.
4.64
IMD data is presented at the scale of the Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) nationally,
however the IMD local authority summary data suggests that Hyndburn is ranked as the
28th most deprived local authority area in the country 326 local authority areas.
4.65
The IMD figure for Hyndburn varies considerably by LSOA with the authority’s most
deprived LSOA ranking within the top 2% most deprived area in the country to the least
deprived LSOA ranking within the top 86% across England. This is represented in the
figure below, highlighting concentration of deprivation around the Borough’s main urban
areas.
39
Figure 4.9:
Levels of Deprivation in Hyndburn
Source: IMD, 2015
Key messages
4.66
To summarise:
•
During the last major growth period nationally (1998-2008), Hyndburn significantly
underperformed and witnessed a decline in the number of jobs. Even during
periods of growth, most notably between 2005 and 2007, the Borough captured a
low level of growth overall. Hyndburn has also been less successful than other
areas in securing growth post-recession, with an overall decline in employment
between 2009 and 2013.
•
Manufacturing has historically been a key contributor to the local economy and
productivity, which – though declining both in employment and GVA terms –
remains an important sector in Hyndburn. However – unlike other areas - the
contraction of over 4,200 manufacturing jobs over this period has not been offset
by any significant growth number of important private service sectors.
•
However, the contribution of the service sector – both public and particularly
professional services – has grown, while wholesale and retail also remains a
significant contributor. These sectors each accounted for around 20% of total
GVA in 2013. Historic trends suggest that these sectors will continue to make an
important contribution to growth in GVA terms.
40
•
Ensuring that the Hyndburn economy is well equipped and able to accommodate
growth in these sectors will influence the extent to which future growth is secured.
A key question, however, is the extent to which future growth replaces
manufacturing job losses or merely serves to stabilise total employment levels
rather than result in net growth.
•
Over the period from 2004 to 2013, the number of businesses in Hyndburn
increased by 2.0%. Whilst this is positive in the context of declining employment
levels over this period, the level of growth is notably lower than comparator areas.
Furthermore, whilst Pennine Lancashire accounts for a significant proportion of
the overall growth in businesses witnessed across Lancashire County over this
period, Hyndburn has not capitalised on this growth.
•
However, Hyndburn has also sustained lower than national average rates of
business start-ups since 2010, although once established the Borough provides a
general positive environment for these businesses, with de-registration, or
businesses death, typically lower than the regional average.
•
The size profile of individual business units and the overall business base will
influence the size and composition of accommodation required. The number of
new business starts – on average, 310 per annum across Hyndburn - will
continue to be a source of employment growth and demand for new business
accommodation. The current profile therefore suggests that there is likely to be
higher demand for premises suitable for micro, small and medium size
businesses.
•
There remains a need to improve the skills levels amongst the working age
population in Hyndburn in order to boost the overall skills profile of Pennine
Lancashire. In particular, the prevalence of higher level skills needs to be
improved to ensure those who are able to work are equipped with the skills to
meet future demand from employers. This in turn will also reduce the areas’
current dependence on low skilled, low value employment.
•
There are similar challenges with regards to the current occupational structure,
which is typically suited to production and lower value service sector economies
with a shortage of professional and associate professional occupations. In the
short term, this may limit the extent to which relevant and required experience is
available within the labour market for higher value service sectors.
•
As one of the key factors that attracts and retains businesses, ensuring that the
full potential of the labour market is realised and the supply of labour is able to
meet the demand of new and/or growing employers is a priority for Hyndburn.
This is particularly important in the context of Hyndburn given the low skills base
and above average levels of unemployment that characterise the area.
•
Labour force mobility across the FEMA and the ability of businesses to meet their
needs outside of the area in other Pennine Lancashire authorities are other
important factors likely to influence business investment and demand for
employment land and premises. The average pay for residents in Hyndburn is
greater than the average workplace pay, suggesting that currently a proportion of
41
residents commute out of the authority to access higher paid jobs and that
Hyndburn has a comparatively weaker jobs market. Diversifying the occupational
base will help to ensure that there is an adequate supply of higher skilled, higher
paid jobs available within the Borough and will in turn help reduce the need to
travel to access these employment opportunities.
42
5. Property Market Baseline
5.1
Understanding the dynamics of Hyndburn’s commercial property market, the current
stock of employment space, and recent trends in availability and supply of employment
land is beneficial in establishing the extent of revealed and latent demand arising across
the area for different types of commercial property.
5.2
To set the analysis in its wider context, consideration is first given to recent trends in the
occupier and investment markets at a national level. This is followed by a more detailed
analysis of changes in supply and demand for commercial property across Hyndburn,
and the wider FEMA, drawing on a range of secondary data sources including:
5.3
•
Commercial floorspace data from the Valuation Office Agency (VOA);
•
Commercial property data drawn from online databases such as Costar; and
•
Monitoring data on employment development compiled by Hyndburn Borough
Council.
Market data on availability, vacancy and rental values is also examined. This is
supplemented with local intelligence from commercial agents in order to build a detailed
picture of supply and demand for office, general industrial, storage and warehousing
uses.
National market context
26
5.4
RICS UK Commercial Market Survey for Q2 2015 provides an insight in to recent
market trends at a national level. Evidence from the survey indicates that the
commercial property market is continuing to recover and improve, showing no signs of
declining. Trends of strong demand from investors and occupiers alike are helping to
push capital value and rental expectations higher both in the short-term and the longerterm.
5.5
Occupier markets are showing increased levels of activity and consistent growth with
the demand for leasable space rising for eleven quarters consecutively. The retail sector
continues to see more modest gains relative to office and industrial space, although the
gap has narrowed somewhat recently.
5.6
Simultaneously, available space has continued to decline for the ninth quarter in
succession. The steepest declines were seen in the office and industrial sectors,
influenced by the severely restricted supply of office and industrial space.
5.7
Rental projections appear buoyant at present with a higher percentage of survey
respondents anticipating rising rental rates over the next three quarters than at any
other time over the past eighteen years. The rental expectations are predicted to
strengthen across all sectors; whilst office rates are set to see the largest growth and
retail the least growth.
26
RICS (2014) UK Commercial Market Survey (Q2 2015)
43
5.8
The investment market is also seeing an increase in demand with international
investment also continuing to improve across each of the sectors. In addition, the supply
of property for sale remains firmly in decline.
5.9
As a result, capital values are expected to see sizeable growth over the next twelve
months, with the office and industrial sectors expected to achieve slightly sharper price
growth in comparison to retail property, in line with the general market trends.
5.10
These sentiments are echoed by research undertaken by Savills who note that the
level of commercial activity in the UK hit a five-month high in May 2015 with a sharp and
strong rate of expansion in projects and transactions across the private sector market in
particular. The research recognises that the fastest growth was recorded in private retail
and leisure projects, although industrial/warehouse activity also continued to rise with
May 2015 being the 33rd month of consecutive growth.
5.11
In addition to considering national trends, it is important to take into account evidenced
trends, issues and opportunities at a more localised level. This is achieved below by
considering:
27
•
The current composition and changes in the existing stock of employment
floorspace across Hyndburn;
•
Past development rates and take up of employment land;
•
Market signals and trend based data relating to availability, vacancy and rental
values; and
•
The views and perspectives of local commercial agents.
The existing stock of employment floorspace
28
5.12
Statistics are published by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) to understand how the
amount of business floorspace in Hyndburn has changed, based on analysis of
properties liable for business rates. The latest statistics were published in March 2012,
showing that there was 919,000sqm of industrial floorspace in the Borough in 2012, with
a further 67,000sqm of office space.
5.13
As the following graphs show, there has been a sustained loss of industrial floorspace
over the latter half of the period shown. This has seen some 120,000sqm of industrial
floorspace lost, which has offset the increases seen in some earlier years such that
there has been an overall decline in the amount of industrial space in Hyndburn
between 2000 and 2012. The total amount of office floorspace in the Borough has
increased, however, though not at the same scale as the loss of industrial floorspace.
27
28
Savills Research UK Commercial (June 2015) Commercial Development Activity - Press Release
VOA (2012) Business Floorspace (Experimental Statistics)
44
Figure 5.1:
Annual Change in Office and Industrial Floorspace 2000 – 2012
Annual Change in Floorspace (sqm)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000
-40,000
Office
Industrial
Source: VOA, 2012
5.14
This analysis can be brought up to date through a review of rateable commercial
properties as of June 2015. This is presented in the following table, alongside an
indicative average size for each employment type in Hyndburn.
Table 5.1:
Rateable Properties – June 2015
Type
Number of rateable
properties
Total area (sqm)
Average floorspace
(sqm)
Factory
120
300,176
2,501
Office
467
66,454
142
Warehouse
281
302,147
1,075
Workshop
475
153,294
323
Total
1,343
822,072
612
Source: VOA, 2015
5.15
The table suggests that Hyndburn is characterised by a comparatively high proportion of
rateable properties in Hyndburn are offices or workshops, with these types of property
typically smaller compared to factories and warehouses, which have larger average
floorspace requirements.
5.16
This data can be further analysed to illustrate the spatial distribution of rateable
properties in Hyndburn, with the following plan showing properties distinguished by type
and scaled by total size.
45
5.17
It is clear that there are concentrations of employment floorspace in the urban areas of
Hyndburn, with established employment areas in Accrington, Altham, Clayton-le-Moors,
Church and Oswaldtwistle evidently playing varying roles. This spatial distribution is
shown on the series of plans below.
Figure 5.2:
Rateable Properties in Hyndburn
Source: VOA, 2015; Turley, 2015
5.18
It is evident that office properties are mainly concentrated in Accrington and are
relatively small in size, although Clayton-Le-Moors also provides some office space.
This is highlighted in figures 5.5 and 5.5 below.
5.19
Factories dominate in a number of areas including at the older and established industrial
estates in Accrington, Church and Oswaldtwistle, but also extend to other urban and
rural areas. Accrington and the surrounding urban area also has the highest
concentration of workshops with the majority of space being 5,000 sqm or below.
5.20
Concentration of smaller warehousing is also evident in these locations, as well as in
Rishton and Great Harwood.
46
Figure 5.3:
Rateable Properties in Accrington, Church and Oswaldtwistle
5.21
Larger warehouses in the Borough are broadly located in less central areas, with
relation to key infrastructure often an important factor in location decisions. There is a
particular concentration along the M65 Corridor at Junction 7 and Altham located to the
north of Junction 8.
Figure 5.4:
Rateable Properties in Rishton, Great Harwood and Clayton-LeMoors
47
Figure 5.5:
Rateable Properties in Altham and Huncoat
Completions and losses
5.22
Monitoring undertaken by the Council allows an understanding of recent completions
and losses of employment land in the Borough since 2011. This is summarised in the
following table, highlighting that there has been growth in employment space
completions over the past four years with a gross total of around 39,500sqm of new
space completed. This peaked in 2013/14, largely due to several new B2 developments.
Table 5.2:
Use Class
Gross Completions 2011 – 2015 (sqm)
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Total
B1a
0
0
0
273
273
B1b
0
0
0
0
0
B1c
0
474
0
0
474
B2
0
2,546
15,019
2,997
20,562
B8
0
2,545
5,060
10,523
18,128
Total
0
5,565
20,079
13,793
39,437
Source: Hyndburn Borough Council, 2015
48
5.23
It is also important to consider losses to employment land, and this is summarised
below. Evidently, around 40,000sqm of employment space has been lost to other uses
over the past four years, with over half of this occurring in 2014/15 through a major
application at Hambledon Mill and a change of use of a warehouse in Church.
Table 5.3:
Use Class
Employment Floorspace Losses 2011 – 2015 (sqm)
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Total
B1a
0
0
0
106
106
B1b
0
0
0
0
0
B1c
0
0
0
0
0
B2
1,543
8,030
0
9,294
18,867
B8
180
0
9549
11130
20,859
1,723
8,030
9,549
20,530
39,832
Total
5.24
Finally, it is important to consider the net change in employment floorspace in Hyndburn,
by establishing completions net of losses. This is summarised in the following table and
shows that most monitoring years have seen net losses in employment space, with the
exception of 2013/14 when around 10,500sqm of additional floorspace was developed –
primarily in use class B2. Overall, however, there has been a net loss of 395sqm of
employment space over the monitoring period, with losses primarily seen in B2 and B8
use classes, potentially as older obsolete floorspace is replaced by newer premises in
different B use Classes or alternative uses.
5.25
However, considering trends by use Class shows that in overall terms, between 2011/12
and 2014/15, the Borough experienced a net gain in B1c/B2 Industrial floorspace (+474,
and +1,695 sqm) together with an additional 167 sqm of B1a Office floorspace. There
has been a net loss of B8 Warehousing floorspace in contrast over the same period.
Table 5.4:
Use Class
Net Change in Employment Space 2011 – 2015 (sqm)
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Total
B1a
0
0
0
167
167
B1b
0
0
0
0
0
B1c
0
474
0
0
474
B2
-1,543
-5,484
15,019
-6,297
1,695
B8
-180
2,545
-4,489
-607
-2,731
Total
-1723
-2,465
10,530
-6737
-395
49
Take up of land
5.26
The following table expresses the above in terms of land taken up for employment use
over the same period. This shows that between 2011/12 and 2014/15 around 6.3
hectares of new employment land was taken up in the Borough with most of this take up
– equivalent to 4.7 hectares – taking place in the last year. In contrast, no take up was
reported in 2011/12. At 0.5 hectares reported take up in 2013/14 was also low, this
despite there being over 10,530 sqm of new floorspace created. This suggests a degree
of recycling of land with some of the completions taking place on existing employment
sites.
Table 5.5:
Employment Land Take Up between 2011/12 and 2014/15 (Ha)
Use Class
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Total
Land (ha)
0
1.1
0.5
4.7
6.3
Pipeline
5.27
There is a pipeline of new employment space with extant planning permission which
could be developed over the coming years. The following table summarises the net
change in floorspace which could occur if extant permissions – as of March 2015 – are
implemented.
Table 5.6:
Pipeline of Extant Employment Space Permissions (sqm)
B1a
B1b
B1c
B2
B8
Total
Gross
503
0
2,586
657
524
4,270
Loss
0
0
655
12,972
591
14,218
Net
503
0
1,931
-12,315
-67
-9,948
5.28
If extant permissions are developed, there would be a net loss in employment
floorspace in Hyndburn, primarily due to planned developments at Albert Mill and
Clayton Triangle which will see B2 and B8 employment space replaced by residential
schemes. The latter scheme would, however, contribute to a net increase in B1a
employment space, alongside a permitted environmental business park at Coach Road
Meadow.
5.29
A number of major planning applications have been approved since March 2015 which
significantly enhances the Borough’s pipeline and forward supply of employment
floorspace. These applications are summarised below.
50
Table 5.7:
Planning applications approved since March 2015
Scheme
Proposals
Whitebirk Strategic
Employment Site
Major Outline: Mixed employment comprising industrial and
logistics floor space (B1c, B2 and B8) together with A5,
A3/A4, C1 and PFS (including forecourt shop) uses
Senator International
Ltd, Huncoat Industrial
Estate
Erection of extension to existing distribution centre building,
erection of recycling building and garage/workshop
expansion of lorry park including hardstanding, works to reroute existing stream and landscaping
Simon Jersey Ltd,
Altham Business Park
Erection of high bay warehouse extension to existing
building with new service yard and access road additional
car parking areas and external breakout seating area
Source: Hyndburn Borough Council
5.30
Collectively, these applications have the potential to deliver 100,094 sqm of new
employment floorspace. This includes 18,483 sqm of new B2 Industrial and 81,611 sqm
of new B8 Warehousing floorspace over the next 5 years at Whitebirk, Huncoat
Industrial Estate and Altham Business Park. A more detailed appraisal of the
employment land supply is included within Section 8 and accompanying appendices.
Employment land supply
5.31
The Borough has a forward supply of employment land equivalent to 88.4 hectares. The
following table shows the broad distribution of employment land across the Borough and
highlights the current reliance on allocations at Huncoat, Whitebirk and to a lesser
extent Altham. In contrast, Great Harwood and Clayton-Le-Moors have a lower
proportion of the Borough’s allocated employment land.
Table 5.8:
Distribution of employment land by town
Town
Land Supply (ha)
Huncoat
29.0
Clayton-le-Moors
6.8
Altham
12.1
Great Harwood
5.5
Whitebirk / Rishton
35
Total
88.4
51
Employment land in adjoining districts
5.32
As recognised in the NPPF and PPG it is relevant to consider the employment land
position, both current and in terms of forward planning policy, of adjacent authority areas
when considering the future position for Hyndburn. This approach forms part of the
Council’s Duty to Co-Operate; a requirement of the Localism Act.
5.33
The following therefore provides a headline summary of the current position in
neighbouring authorities across Pennine Lancashire. This includes consideration of:
5.34
•
Current employment land provision;
•
The status of the employment land evidence base;
•
Identified cross boundary sites which need to be considered by Pennine
Lancashire authorities; and
•
Any anticipated requirements for unmet needs to be met outside of the district.
The information contained within the table overleaf has been drawn from a review of
published employment land evidence, and where possible, has been corroborated
through discussions with relevant Council Planning Policy Officers.
52
Table 5.9:
LPA
Employment Land Position in Adjoining Districts
Available
Source / Evidence
Employment
Land
Status of employment land source /
evidence base
Cross boundary Requirement to meet needs outside
employment sites of the district?
Blackburn
43.73 ha
with Darwen
Employment Land
Review – October
2013 / Council
Officers.
The 2013 ELR presents the latest
Whitebirk
employment land figure for the
Strategic
Borough. BE Group have also been
Employment Site
commissioned to provide up to date
research into employment land supply
and demand. The report is expected
to be completed by the end of 2015.
Blackburn’s requirement over the
period from 2011-2026 is 66
hectares, of which 12.8 hectares is to
be met in Hyndburn.
Burnley
55.22ha
Burnley
Employment Land
Study Demand
Update - February
2014
The Employment Land Study 2014
presents the latest available
employment land figure and is drawn
from Burnley’s Annual Monitoring
Report (2011).
No
It is understood that Burnley is not
reliant upon any of the adjoining
authorities to meet the employment
land requirement.
Pendle
38.08 ha
Pendle
Employment Land
Review
(September 2014) /
Council Officers
The Employment Land Review
employment land figure. The
employment land position is updated
annually in the AMR. The next edition
covering 2013/14 and 2014/15 will be
published in December 2015.
Lomeshaye may
have crossboundary
implications on
the demand for
employment land
and premises
Employment land monitoring for the
period 2011/12 to 2014/14 reveals
that 7.5 hectares of employment land
has been developed since the start
of the plan period, leaving a
projected shortfall of 22.41 hectares.
It is not envisaged at this stage that
any of this requirement will need to
be sourced from outside the
borough.
53
LPA
Available
Source / Evidence
Employment
Land
Status of employment land source /
evidence base
Ribble
Valley
2013 ELR
Ribble Valley
states 20 ha Annual Monitoring
Report 2014 /
The 2014 Annual Monitoring Report
No
employment land figure for the year to
March 2014. This figure is made up of
extant permissions and allocated sites
Ribble Valley
Employment Land
Study Refresh –
May 2013
Rossendale
23.35 ha
Cross boundary Requirement to meet needs outside
employment sites of the district?
Local Development Local Development Framework - Lives No
Framework - Lives & Landscapes Local Plan Part 2
& Landscapes
Consultation document
Local Plan Part 2
Consultation
document
Ribble Valley Employment Land
Study Refresh (May 2013) identifies
a shortfall of employment land,
although it is not anticipated that
future land requirements will need to
be met outside of the authority.
Rossendale’s requirement over the
period from 2011-2026 is 20.84
hectares.
It is understood that Rossendale is
not reliant upon any of the adjoining
authorities to meet the employment
land requirement.
54
Market Signals
5.35
The NPPF states that planning authorities’ assessment of and strategies for employment uses
29
should take full account of market signals . A review of data drawn from commercial property
market database Costar UK allows for the analysis of these and the changing pattern of
supply and demand for office, industrial and retail premises in Hyndburn and the wider
Pennine Lancashire area.
5.36
In addition to assisting in determining the type and age of commercial stock currently on the
market, Costar also provides historic market data which is useful in comparing and analysing
the changes in property market conditions over time. Consideration has therefore been given
to trend based changes in availability, vacancy levels and rental values of office, industrial and
30
retail and leisure stock.
Age of Premises
5.37
Data provided by Costar demonstrates the age of commercial premises by type in Hyndburn
and Lancashire.
5.38
The evidence suggests that a higher proportion of the office stock in Hyndburn is newer with
23% of all office properties being built over the last 15 years since 2000, compared to 9% of
industrial stock. A higher proportion of industrial stock in Hyndburn was built during the period
from 1950 to 1990, with only 13% built before 1950.
5.39
It should be noted, however, that around 23% of all stock in Hyndburn has no information
available on the property build date.
Figure 5.6:
Proportion of Stock by Age in Hyndburn
% of total stock
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 to 2000 to 1990 to 1980 to 1970 to 1960 to 1950 to Pre 1950 No date
date
2009
1999
1989
1979
1969
1959
Office
Industrial
Retail and Leisure
Source: Costar, 2015
29
NPPF paragraph 158
Retail and leisure includes: auto dealerships, bars, bowling alleys, casinos, convenience stores, department stores,
chemists, fast food restaurants/shops, garden centres, golf courses/driving range, health clubs, cinemas, race tracks,
restaurants, service stations, skating rinks, supermarkets, swimming pools and theatres/con cert halls.
30
Commercial Property Values
5.40
Whilst office rents are greater in Hyndburn than in Pennine Lancashire as a whole, it is
evident that rental values for office properties have decreased significantly over the period
from Q1 2007 to the quarter-to-date (QTD).
5.41
Currently office properties achieve around two thirds of the rental value achieved prior to the
economic recession in Q1 2007. This differs greatly from the trend seen across Pennine
Lancashire where values have declined slightly but have generally remained stable since
2012.
Figure 5.7:
Change in Office Rental Rates (Q1 2007 – QTD) (per sqft)
£15.00
£14.00
£13.00
£12.00
£11.00
£10.00
£9.00
£8.00
£7.00
£6.00
Hyndburn
Pennine Lancashire
Source: Costar 2015
5.42
Industrial rental values have also fluctuated considerably over the period shown in Hyndburn,
whilst rates across Pennine Lancashire have remained relatively stable - at around £2.60 per
sqft, since Q4 2011. Currently, Hyndburn is maintaining a slightly lower rental value than
Pennine Lancashire, at £2.56 per sqft.
58
Figure 5.8:
Change in Industrial Rental Rates (Q1 2009 – QTD) (per sqft)
£3.10
£3.00
£2.90
£2.80
£2.70
£2.60
£2.50
£2.40
2009 1Q
2009 2Q
2009 3Q
2009 4Q
2010 1Q
2010 2Q
2010 3Q
2010 4Q
2011 1Q
2011 2Q
2011 3Q
2011 4Q
2012 1Q
2012 2Q
2012 3Q
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Q
2013 4Q
2014 1Q
2014 2Q
2014 3Q
2014 4Q
2015 1Q
2015 2Q
QTD
£2.30
Hyndburn
Pennine Lancashire
Source: Costar 2015
Availability and Vacancy
5.43
This section considers trends in property availability and vacancy levels across Hyndburn.
5.44
Availability is defined as the total amount of space that is currently being marketed as
available for lease in a given time period. It includes any space that is available, regardless of
whether the space is vacant, occupied, available for sublease, or available at a future date,
31
although it excludes space available in proposed buildings .
5.45
Vacancy, on the other hand, is defined space that is not currently occupied by a tenant,
regardless of any lease obligation that may be on the space. Vacant space can therefore
32
include space that is either available or not available
5.46
Analysis of this data reveals that the availability of office stock in Hyndburn has remained
higher than the average for Pennine Lancashire since Q3 2008. Currently, Hyndburn’s
availability rate stands at 29.2% compared to 18.7% across Pennine Lancashire. The
availability rate is also over 5% lower than the peak of 34.7% in Q1 2013, suggesting demand
has increased slightly over the last couple of years.
5.47
The vacancy of office stock in Hyndburn, however, has historically maintained rates in line
with the average for Pennine Lancashire, remaining at 9.6% since Q1 2015, which is
marginally higher than the Pennine Lancashire vacancy rate of 9.2%. This is also the lowest
rate recorded across Hyndburn since the start of the recession.
5.48
However, whilst vacancy rates remain broadly similar, the data suggests Hyndburn has a
larger stock of offices currently on the market, suggesting an oversupply and higher demand
across neighbouring Pennine Lancashire authorities.
31
32
Costar Group (2015) Analytics
Ibid
59
Figure 5.9:
Change in Office Vacancy and Availability (Q1 2007 – QTD)
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Hyndburn - Vacancy
Pennine Lancashire - Vacancy
Hyndburn - Availability
Pennine Lancashire - Availability
Source: Costar 2015
5.49
Contrastingly, the availability of industrial stock in Hyndburn has maintained lower rates than
on average across Pennine Lancashire since Q4 2010. Whilst availability rates increased
somewhat during 2014, the rate in the QTD stands at 15.6%, with the Pennine Lancashire
rate slightly higher at 18.6%
5.50
The vacancy rate of industrial stock has also remained lower than the Pennine Lancashire
average since Q4 2014. The vacancy rate of industrial premises in Hyndburn in QTD stood at
7.1%, which is lower than the vacancy rate for office stock in the QTD.
60
Figure 5.10: Change in Industrial Vacancy and Availability (Q1 2009 – QTD)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2009 1Q
2009 2Q
2009 3Q
2009 4Q
2010 1Q
2010 2Q
2010 3Q
2010 4Q
2011 1Q
2011 2Q
2011 3Q
2011 4Q
2012 1Q
2012 2Q
2012 3Q
2012 4Q
2013 1Q
2013 2Q
2013 3Q
2013 4Q
2014 1Q
2014 2Q
2014 3Q
2014 4Q
2015 1Q
2015 2Q
QTD
0%
Hyndburn - Vacancy
Pennine Lancashire - Vacancy
Hyndburn - Availability
Pennine Lancashire - Availability
Source: Costar 2015
Commercial Agent Consultation
5.51
Commercial property agents have also been consulted in order to gain a local perspective on
market conditions across Hyndburn. This has included discussions with:
•
Petty Chartered Surveyors
•
Trevor Dawson Commercial Property Consultants
•
Taylor Weaver
5.52
Views were sought on the operation of the commercial property market across Hyndburn
including trends in specific markets and sectors, levels of supply and demand for different
types of property as well as perspectives on the current development market and demand for
employment land.
5.53
A summary of key messages emerging from these discussions is provided below.
General Market Sentiment
5.54
Commercial agents were asked to comment on the commercial property market conditions
across Hyndburn at the current time and how this compares to market conditions within
surrounding areas.
5.55
Agents generally highlighted that there is a shortage of commercial premises as a result of no
real speculative development occurring over recent years. This is mainly a result of the gap
between rent and yield being too wide. However, some design and build development is
beginning to take place in Hyndburn. In addition to the shortage in existing premises, agents
also suggested that there is a lack of good employment sites available for development in
Hyndburn.
61
5.56
The lack of suitable commercial premises and sites available for development is worsened by
the existing demand for commercial uses in Hyndburn. Demand is particularly dominant in
accessible locations such as along the M65 with Hyndburn being well positioned for motorway
access. The area surrounding Junction 7 is popular for commercial uses, as it enables quick
and easy access in to Accrington, however agents highlighted that generally locations close to
a motorway junction are desirable.
5.57
Commercial agents suggested that in comparison to surrounding areas, the commercial
market in Hyndburn is currently underperforming. Surrounding authorities such as Preston,
Blackburn and Burnley are recognised to attract greater investment due to the increased
availability of commercial sites and premises and potentially a more suitable labour force
supply.
5.58
Agents also commented on the main barriers to employment land, which indicated that there
are issues in Hyndburn surrounding infrastructure and access to sites. In addition, there are
recognised restrictions associated with the extension of existing employment sites due to
greenbelt.
5.59
Commercial agents were asked to comment on the office and industrial markets and sectors
in Hyndburn. For example, views on the supply and demand of particular types of products
and the factors influencing demand in different locations.
5.60
There is only limited demand for retail and leisure accommodation generally in Hyndburn.
Therefore, the retail and leisure market was not considered within the consultation.
Markets and Sectors
5.61
Office
The office market in Hyndburn is regarded by agents to be weak as a result of the limited
existing demand for office properties in Hyndburn. Demand for office stock, however, was
recognised by agents to be more prominent in Blackburn and Burnley.
5.62
Despite the limited demand for office premises in Accrington, there is an over-supply of office
stock in the town centre. Much of this stock comprises older Victorian premises, which are not
suitably designed for modern office use. The town centre is also considered to be an
undesirable location for office development due to accessibility and parking issues.
5.63
The most popular locations for offices are on designated Business Parks where premises are
modern, more easily accessible and have car parking provision. Agents highlighted that there
has been some new office development along the M65 junctions which has been much higher
in demand compared to town centre stock.
5.64
The existing demand within the office market tends to be driven by local businesses relocating
and upgrading, with little evidence of office investors moving in to the Hyndburn area. As a
result, there has been no speculative office development in Hyndburn. Nevertheless, it was
felt that the availability of good and readily available office sites in accessible locations would
potentially help to attract external investment in the future.
5.65
Industrial
It was reported by local agents that the industrial sector is currently experiencing demand for
employment land from both speculative developers and owner occupiers who are looking for
62
design and build opportunities. The industrial market in Hyndburn is the best performing
commercial sector, accounting for 70% to 80% of all activity.
5.66
Demand for industrial property in Hyndburn is recognised by agents to be steady, with the
Borough maintaining high occupancy rates. There is a shortage of industrial land and
premises with little stock currently available. In particular, there is a recognised shortage of
larger - 50,000 sqft and over – warehousing and manufacturing units, although there is also
demand for and a shortage of smaller industrial units. This was also reflected in discussions
with the Chamber who identified a perceived lack of light industrial floorspace with empty
property rates having had an adverse impact on the number of starter units.
5.67
The most popular locations for industrial premises are along the M65 corridor due to
accessibility. In this sector locations that are difficult to access, and which experience poor
traffic flows, seriously affect the desirability of land and property.
Existing Employment Sites
5.68
5.69
Finally, commercial agents were asked to comment on the market attractiveness of four of the
Borough’s largest employment sites and allocations, including land at Whitebirk / J6 M65 area,
Junction 7 Business Park at Clayton, Altham Business Park and the former Huncoat Power
Station site.
•
Whitebirk / J6 M65 area - The strategic location of the Whitebirk / J6 M65 site
will generate good demand for commercial premises, although currently there is
no land available for development.
•
Junction 7 Business Park at Clayton - There is limited demand for employment
land and premises at the Junction 7 Business Park with the site currently
accommodating some empty smaller units as a result of industrial turnover. The
quality of stock is sufficient although slightly outdated.
•
Former Huncoat Power Station site - Infrastructure and access issues are
hindering the development of the Former Huncoat Power Station site. Unless
accessibility is improved, agents expect the site to struggle to develop and
progress.
•
Altham Business Park - Altham Business Park is a popular site and units have
sold and let out quickly resulting in the site now being mostly built out with no
availability. Agents stated that extensions to the site would be welcome as it is
now an established business park in great demand.
In addition to the above, discussions with local developers identified demand for smaller 2,000
sqft to 5,000 sqft premises at Heys Lane Industrial Estate. It was considered that further
extensions to the estate would be met with demand.
Key messages
5.70
In Summary:
•
Understanding demand for the existing stock of employment land and premises is an
important element of assessing future business needs and requirements. Examining
63
market intelligence as well as recent statistics on past development rates and
employment land take up is also beneficial in understanding the spatial implications of
‘revealed demand’ for employment land across Hyndburn.
•
Local commercial property markets typically extend beyond the confines of
administrative local authority boundaries. This is certainly the case in Hyndburn with
the Borough, and its stock of commercial property being largely subsumed within the
wider market area geography established by Pennine Lancashire.
•
Notwithstanding the above, it is possible to examine the scale and spatial distribution
of floorspace across Hyndburn drawing on VOA datasets with the latest statistics
showing that there was over 900,000sqm of industrial floorspace in the Borough in
2012, with a further 67,000sqm of office space.
•
Whilst there has been a sustained loss of industrial floorspace since 2007 commensurate the reported decline of the manufacturing sector and associated
employment over this period - there remains concentrations of employment floorspace
in the urban areas of Hyndburn, with Accrington, Altham, Clayton-le-Moors, Church
and Oswaldtwistle evidently playing varying roles as employment centres.
•
Analysis of commercial property values suggest that whilst office rents are generally
higher than across Pennine Lancashire, the gap has closed considerably since 2007.
Industrial values have also fluctuated significantly and are currently, on average,
lower than across the Pennine Lancashire property market area. It is likely that low
rental values will continue to impact on the viability of some schemes and the pace at
which new supply comes to the market.
•
Analysis of data on property availability suggests that Hyndburn has a larger stock of
available office premises, In contrast both availability and vacancy rates in the
industrial stock is lower, suggesting higher demand for industrial stock than office.
This is evidenced by the monitoring data which show a growth in employment space
completions over the past four years with a gross total of around 40,000sqm of new
space completed. This peaked in 2013/14, largely due to several new B2
developments.
•
The conclusions reached through the analysis of data have been corroborated
through discussions local commercial agents who suggest a weak office market with
demand for commercial property being driven largely by the industrial market. A lack
of supply, particularly for larger units was noted alongside a dearth of readily available
sites in accessible locations along the M65.
•
In terms of the development market, design and build is typically favoured. It was
perceived that the wide gap between rent and yield limits the scope for speculative
development.
64
6. Understanding Business Needs
6.1
Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) highlights the importance of liaising closely with the
business community to understand their current and potential future needs. In response to
this, Hyndburn Borough Council conducted a Borough-wide business survey in May 2015
using a standardised postal survey form. A copy of this form is enclosed at Appendix 1.
6.2
The survey is important for providing further insight into general business sentiment, as well
as any specific locational and premises requirements of businesses currently operating across
key towns within the Borough.
6.3
A total of 39 written responses were received during June and July 2015. The results of the
survey were collated by the Council and have been analysed by Turley, with the qualitative
and quantitative conclusions emerging from this being presented in this section.
6.4
The remainder of this section is structured to around the following three topic areas:
•
Business profile and principal activities;
•
Existing business premises in Hyndburn; and
•
Expansion plans of businesses.
Business profile and principal activities
Principal business activities
6.5
The survey collected data on the nature, size and turnover of businesses. As shown in figure
6.1 below, just over half of those responding were engaged in manufacturing activity, a trend
commensurate with the Borough’s employment profile and business base which remains
heavily reliant on the sector. Construction accounted for the second largest share of
respondents (23%), followed the services sector (10%). The remaining businesses were from
Wholesale Trade (8%), Retail Trade (5%) and Transportation and Utilities (3%).
Employees and workforce
6.6
The majority of businesses responding to the survey were small businesses with between 10
and 49 employees, although micro businesses, with fewer than 10 employees, accounted for
just over a quarter of businesses responding. Conversely, the sample included only 1
business with more than 250 employees.
6.7
Of the businesses surveyed 76% were locally based with their entire workforce based in
Hyndburn. The remaining 24% had premises and staff located elsewhere.
65
Figure 6.1:
Businesses by number of employees
Large 250+
Medium 50-249
Small 10-49
Micro 0-9
0
5
10
15
20
Number of businesses
Source: Hyndburn Borough Council and Turley Analysis, 2015
Turnover
The prevalence of smaller businesses from the survey samples is evident in the reported
turnover of businesses with 64% having a turnover of up to £5m. This again supporting the
notion that Hyndburn’s economy remains reliant on lower value activity and businesses. A
further 5 businesses (13%) had a turnover of between £5m and £10m and a further 7
businesses (18%) had a turnover of more than £10m.
Figure 6.2:
Turnover of businesses
14
12
6.8
10
8
6
4
2
0
Up to £500k
£500k-£1m
£1m-£5m
£5m-£10m
>£10m
Turnover £
66
6.9
The survey confirmed that around half of businesses traded in domestic UK markets and were
not reliant on revenue from exports. A further 30% confirmed that 10% of their trade arose
from exports.
6.10
A total of 3 businesses confirmed that more than 50% of their turnover was generated from
exports. Whilst all were operating in the manufacturing sector, their reported turnover varied
considerably, with 1 business generating over £10m and another between just £500,000 and
£1m.
Existing premises
6.11
The average size of premises occupied by businesses was 65,201 sqft or 6,057 sqm. Of the
31 businesses that provided details of their current premises, over half (58%) were occupying
smaller premises of up to 20,000 sqft, this again an indication of the smaller scale nature of
businesses and their operations, but also reflects the national trend of there being a higher
numbers of micro and small businesses operating across the country, compared to medium
sized and larger companies.
Figure 6.3:
Size of premises occupied
100000+
Size of premises
50001-100000
20001-50000
10001-20000
5001-10000
2001-5000
0-2000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
6.12
Of these premises 64% were owned by the business, with the remaining 36% being occupied
by way of a lease.
6.13
High levels of owner occupation reflect the established nature of the local businesses
surveyed. Of the 31 respondents to questions regarding length of occupation, the majority
(74% or 23 businesses) had occupied their current premises for more than 10 years, of which
14 (45%) had occupied premises for more than 20 years.
6.14
Just 3 businesses (10%) had occupied their premises for 5 years or less.
67
Length of occupation
60+ years
41-60 years
21-40 years
11-20 years
6-10 years
1-5 years
0
2
4
6
8
10
Source: Hyndburn Borough Council and Turley Analysis 2015
Satisfaction with existing premises
6.15
Of the businesses responding to the survey 31 (79%) were satisfied with the current business
premises.
6.16
A total of 8 businesses (21%) responded stating that they were not satisfied with their current
business premises. Reasons cited included:
6.17
•
Poor vehicle access;
•
Space acting as a constraint to growth;
•
Insufficient parking;
•
Lack of storage space;
All but one of these businesses were located in owner occupied premises. The majority were
well established with the length of occupation ranging from 5 years to 100+ years. Only 2
businesses had been located in their current premises for less than 10 years.
Factors influencing location choices
6.18
Businesses were asked to rank asked to rank the following factors in term of their influence on
their choice of current business location:
•
Property/rental values
•
Access to markets/supply chains
•
Motorway access
•
Access to skills
•
Access to public transport
68
•
Attractiveness/environment of location
The following chart shows the percentages ranking each of these factors as most important.
Figure 6.4:
Most important factors influencing current business location
Property /rental values
6%
2%
Access to markets supply
chain
9%
32%
Motorway access
Access to skills
15%
15%
21%
Attractiveness
/envirionment of location
Other
6.19
The above chart shows that property and rental values are the most important factors
influencing the location choice of 32% of businesses surveyed. This is followed by motorway
access at 21%. Access to skills and access to markets and supply chains were important
factors for 15% of businesses respectively.
6.20
Access to public transport (2%) and the attractiveness of the location (3%) were less
important factors for most. A further 6% of businesses surveyed identified ‘other’ factors as
being most important. These factors related largely to the fact that the business was
established and owned the premises that they were occupying.
Expansion Plans
6.21
Business were asked whether they were likely to expand their Hyndburn operations in the
next 5 years. Of the 37 businesses that responded to this question, 20 (54%) answered yes.
Although 17 businesses indicated that they did not have plans to expand their operations,
many indicated that would be creating additional jobs. In total some 66% of businesses
indicated that they would be creating jobs over the next 5 years. The most significant of these
were three businesses who indicated that they would be creating up to 40, 50 and 200 jobs
respectively. A further seven businesses indicated that they would be creating between 10
and 20 jobs. Whilst this is based on conjecture, and not all of these businesses will
69
necessarily expand in the next five years, it does serve to indicate a generally positive
sentiment amongst the businesses surveyed.
6.22
Of the businesses with expansion plans, 14 (70%) stated that the expansion would most likely
take place with their existing premises.
6.23
The means by which businesses propose to expand varied. In total:
•
6 businesses indicated that they would expand by building an extension to their existing
premises;
•
7 businesses indicated they would be seeking to purchase or lease new premises; and
•
4 businesses are considering constructing new premises off site.
6.24
The largest space requirement was from a business engaged in fabrication and welding who
had a requirement for a 35,000sqm property.
6.25
A total of 12 businesses indicated the type of location they would be seeking. The majority
(41%) favoured established industrial estates with a smaller number of businesses indicating
a preference for warehousing / distribution parks (25%) and modern business and/or office
(25%).
6.26
The key factors influencing location choices are summarised in the chart below.
Figure 6.5:
Factors influencing location choices of business looking to expand
9
Cost of land or premises
8
7
Attractiveness of location
6
Availability of grant
assistance
5
4
Access to motorway
3
Access to skilled labour
2
1
0
Factors influencing location choice
70
Additional Stakeholder Consultations
6.27
The business survey was supplemented with a series of consultations with local developers,
the Chamber of Commerce and Lancashire Enterprise Partnership. The key themes to
emerge through these discussions, which have relevance when considering the qualitative
needs of businesses and investors, are summarised below.
•
The Chamber identified a migrational shift as manufacturing businesses are becoming
more productive and efficient. The move to more efficient premises has been the main
driver of change within the manufacturing sector. More efficient premises and working
practices have resulted in declines in manufacturing employment whilst still enabling
businesses to grow and expand.
•
Access to workforce was considered to be only a small driver. Given the geography
Pennine Lancashire the workforce is inherently mobile and businesses are not just
reliant on the Hyndburn population as a source of labour. It is understood that local
colleges, including Nelson/Colne College and Runshaw College, are investing in
advanced manufacturing / engineering skills with over 2,000 prospective students
available to provide a potential source of labour in the future.
•
It was considered that growth in the manufacturing sector is likely to come from niche,
advanced manufacturing firms and would most likely be derived from incremental
growth rather than large scale inward investment. However, it was considered that in
Hyndburn there is no obvious specialism upon which to build with business operating
across a range of manufacturing sectors. The market was also perceived to be very
localised with the area not generally competing with other parts of Lancashire.
•
Service sector companies on the other hand were perceived to be more concerned with
land values and access to workforce. A notable investment identified through
discussions was Boohoo in Burnley. It is understood that low land values made it a cost
effective solution for the company. The area is also considered favourable for customer
service and call centre operations given access to cheaper labour. This is not universal
across Pennine Lancashire, however, with Accrington alongside Nelson very much
perceived as dormitory towns feeding other areas with a lack of working population to
promote enterprise and investment.
•
Hyndburn was not perceived to be an attractive location for large scale transport only
logistics operations. It is considered to be too geographically isolated compared to other
areas. It does however offer’s the potential to be a distribution base serving local and
regional markets due to lower land values.
•
From a land and property perspective, it was considered that real estate demand exists,
but is unpredictable. Barriers to investment include viability and the upfront
infrastructure and remediation costs on a number of sites, particularly in the context of a
weaker commercial market where returns a low. It was also felt that previous attempts
to sectorise business parks had generally failed. Those that work best are generally
mixed (B1, B2 and B8).
71
7. Demand Assessment
7.1
Having considered the performance of the local economy, operation of the commercial
property market and needs of businesses, this section turns to consider Hyndburn’s future
economic development needs and land requirements.
7.2
The PPG notes that ‘assessing development needs should be proportionate and does not
require local councils to consider purely hypothetical future scenarios, only future scenarios
33
that could be reasonably expected to occur’ .
7.3
Within this context, plan makers should consider:
7.4
•
Sectoral and employment forecasts and projections (labour demand);
•
Demographically derived assessments of future employment needs (labour supply
techniques);
•
Analysis based on the past take-up of employment land and property and/or future
property market requirements; and
•
Consultation with relevant organisations, studies of business trends, and monitoring of
34
business, economic and employment statistics .
These different approaches are explored in more detail below.
Labour Demand
7.5
Sectoral and employment forecasts and projections have been used to anticipate the extent of
future employment across the Borough. The purpose of introducing the employment forecasts
is to consider potential growth in both workforce and full time equivalent employment to
enable an estimation of potential future floorspace and land requirements. This approach
requires that future employment forecasts be broken down to a sectoral level, and then these
sector level forecasts be matched, as far as possible, to different types of employment
premises and land.
7.6
Experian’s UK Regional Planning Service produces economic forecasts for local authority
areas as well as at regional and national level. These include forecast change in production
(GDP and GVA); labour market (workplace and workforce jobs, economic activity) and
demographics (population size by age group). Historic population data is based on ONS midyear estimates, with 2014 being the final base year. The latest forecasts (September 2015)
run to 2035.
Background to Experian Projections
33
34
004 Reference ID: 2a-004-20140306, revision date 06.03.2014
033 Reference ID: 2a-033-20140306, revision date 06.03.2014
72
7.7
Job growth estimates are arrived at through a dual approach:
•
a top-down application of national and regional trends by sector, reflecting the sector
profile locally; and
•
a bottom-up approach informed by the available labour force incorporating economic
activity rates and commuting ratios.
Experian Baseline Scenario
7.8
The analysis of labour demand is first based on an analysis of the latest (September 2015)
Experian baseline economic projections for jobs. The analysis is based on 2013 (as the base
year) to 2033. It is understood that the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) being
produced by NLP also adopts this time period reflecting the importance of taking an integrated
approach to planning for the Borough’s future housing and economic needs.
7.9
The Experian baseline projections set out change in employment modelled to 2033. To
provide detail by timeframe we set these out in five year time bands (2013-18; 2018-2023;
2023-2028; 2028-2033).
Overall Change
7.10
Employment in Hyndburn is currently at 29,750 in 2013, and is projected to grow to 32,840 by
2033. This is change in employment of 3,090 total jobs, equivalent to 1,790 Full Time
Equivalent jobs (FTEs). This constitutes 11% of the growth projected for Pennine Lancashire
as a whole.
Figure 7.1:
Projected Employment Across Pennine Lancashire (total workforce jobs)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Hyndburn
Burnley
Pendle
Ribble Valley
Rossendale
73
7.11
In per annum terms this equates to 155 total jobs per annum, or 90 FTE jobs per annum
growth in Hyndburn. This is the lowest annual growth of the Pennine Lancashire authorities.
7.12
The majority of Hyndburn’s growth over the next 20 years is expected to be in the first five
years (2013-2018) with an increase of 2,010 total jobs over this period. The rate of growth is
expected to slow considerably over the subsequent five years – with only 180 jobs created
between 2013 and 2023 – before increasing towards the end of the plan period, with 510 jobs
created between 2028 and 2033.
7.13
For context, Experian data suggests that Hyndburn saw around 250 jobs lost annually on
average over the five years to 2013, with an average of 175 jobs lost each year over the
decade to 2013. The graph below presents historic employment change alongside projected
growth to 2033, illustrating the extent to which Hyndburn is forecast to recover from these job
losses and create new jobs over the plan period.
Figure 7.2:
Historic and Projected Employment in Hyndburn (total workforce jobs)
34,000
33,000
32,000
31,000
30,000
29,000
28,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
27,000
Historic
Forecast
Sector Based Change
7.14
The total jobs growth is a result of projected growth in some sectors, particularly those related
to residential service needs, and projected decline in others. The following table shows
forecast change in workforce jobs, broken down by broad industrial sector. This highlights the
sustained forecast decline in jobs in the manufacturing and wholesale and retail sectors, with
public services expected to be the main driver of growth in the Borough. Professional and
other services; construction; and accommodation, food services and recreation are also
projected modest growth.
74
Table 7.1:
Forecast Change in Workforce Jobs by Sector 2013 – 2033
13-18
18-23
23-28
28-33
13-33
190
50
40
40
320
60
30
40
40
170
Construction
-10
110
120
130
350
Extraction & Mining
0
0
0
0
0
Finance & Insurance
30
10
0
0
40
-40
-20
-20
-20
-100
Manufacturing
320
-270
-220
-180
-350
590
0
20
30
640
Public Services
530
360
430
460
1,780
Transport & storage
80
0
30
40
150
Utilities
10
-10
-10
-10
-20
Wholesale & Retail
250
-80
-40
-20
110
2,010
180
390
510
3,090
Total
7.15
The following table shows forecast proportionate change by sector over each five year period,
with the total change in each sector over the plan period compared against forecasts for
Pennine Lancashire as a whole. This enables comparison with this geography, and shows
that some industries – such as agriculture, finance and insurance and public services – are
forecast to grow to a greater extent in Hyndburn than wider Pennine Lancashire.
75
Table 7.2:
Forecast Proportionate Change in Workforce Jobs by Sector 2013 – 2033
13-18
18-23
23-28
28-33
13-33
Penn.
Lancs
2013 –
2033
12%
3%
2%
2%
20%
25%
40%
14%
17%
14%
113%
31%
Construction
-1%
6%
6%
6%
19%
6%
Extraction & Mining
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
-50%
Finance & Insurance
9%
3%
0%
0%
12%
10%
-10%
-6%
-6%
-6%
-26%
-10%
Manufacturing
6%
-5%
-4%
-4%
-7%
-9%
16%
0%
0%
1%
17%
26%
Public Services
6%
4%
5%
5%
21%
17%
Transport & storage
7%
0%
3%
3%
14%
14%
Utilities
4%
-3%
-4%
-4%
-7%
5%
Wholesale & Retail
4%
-1%
-1%
0%
2%
14%
Total
7%
1%
1%
2%
10%
12%
7.16
As a result, the employment sector profile of Hyndburn is expected to alter slightly, with a
greater representation of those sectors projected to grow and a lower representation of those
projected to decline. The following graph illustrates that public services is by far the largest
sector within Hyndburn and is projected to remain so to 2033, while the roles of the
manufacturing and wholesale and retail sectors in particular are forecast to shrink slightly.
76
Figure 7.3:
Hyndburn Sector Profile by Workforce Jobs, 2013 and 2033
Construction
Extraction & Mining
Finance & Insurance
Manufacturing
Public Services
Transport & storage
Utilities
Wholesale & Retail
0%
5%
2013
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2033
7.17
7.18
7.19
Forecasts can also be broken down into 38 detailed categories, which provide further insight
into the industrial sectors likely to see growth and decline over the plan period in Hyndburn.
This shows that the main growth sectors in absolute terms over the plan period are:
•
Residential care and social work (+900 jobs);
•
Education (+520 jobs);
•
Health (+480 jobs);
•
Professional services (+400 jobs); and
•
Manufacture of transport equipment (+380 jobs).
The sectors expected to experience the largest absolute loss in jobs are:
•
Other manufacturing (-340 jobs);
•
Manufacture of textiles and clothing (-260 jobs);
•
Manufacture of wood and paper (-170 jobs);
•
Manufacture of printing and recorded media (-140 jobs); and
•
Manufacture of metal products (-140 jobs).
The following graph illustrates the growth in workforce jobs forecast for each detailed sector.
77
Agriculture, forestry and
Transport and storage
-600
fishing
Extraction and mining
Manufacturing
Utilities
Construction
Wholesale and retail
Accommodation, food
Information and
Finance and insurance
Professional and other
Public services
services and recreation
communication
private services
Residential Care & Social Work
Health
Education
Public Administration & Defence
Other Private Services
Administrative & Supportive Services
Professional Services
Real Estate
Insurance & Pensions
Finance
Computing & Information Services
Telecoms
Media Activities
Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Air & Water Transport
Land Transport, Storage & Post
Retail
Wholesale
Specialised Construction Activities
Civil Engineering
Construction of Buildings
Utilities
Other Manufacturing
Transport Equipment (manufacture of)
Machinery & Equipment (manufacture of)
Computer & Electronic Products…
Metal Products (manufacture of)
Non-Metallic Products (manufacture of)
Pharmaceuticals (manufacture of)
Chemicals (manufacture of)
Fuel Refining
Printing and Recorded Media…
Wood & Paper (manufacture of)
Textiles & Clothing (manufacture of)
Food, Drink & Tobacco (manufacture of)
Extraction & Mining
Figure 7.4:
Change in Workforce Jobs by Sector, Hyndburn, 2013-2033
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
Balance between Full Time and Part Time Employment
7.20
As noted earlier, Experian also forecast change in full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs, with
workforce jobs converted to FTE:
“A constant yard-stick of full-time employment for all industries, regions and industryregion based on thirteen working weeks in a quarter at 37.8 hours a week. 37.8 hours is
35
the average hours worked by a full-time worker in the UK between 1990 and 2009”
7.21
FTE jobs can be viewed as a proportion of all workforce jobs to establish the changing
forecast balance between full-time and part-time employment in Hyndburn. This is
presented in the following table, highlighting an overall trend whereby FTE jobs
represent a smaller proportion of all workforce jobs by the end of the plan period,
compared to 2013, indicating a projected rise in part time employment.
Table 7.3:
FTE Jobs as Proportion of Workforce Jobs 2013 – 2033
2013
2033
0.72
0.69
0.53
0.44
Construction
0.75
0.79
Extraction & Mining
–
–
Finance & Insurance
0.97
0.95
0.97
0.93
Manufacturing
1.05
1.04
0.81
0.76
Public Services
0.84
0.83
Transport & storage
0.94
0.94
Utilities
1.04
0.96
Wholesale & Retail
0.86
0.83
Total
0.87
0.84
7.22
To enable conversion into floorspace and subsequently land requirements, the change
in workforce jobs is translated into Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs.
Full Time Equivalent Jobs
7.23
35
The baseline scenario indicates total FTE employment growth of 1,790 jobs between
2013 and 2033. The following table illustrates the growth by sector for five year time
bands to enable comparison with employment land supply within these periods.
Experian (2015) UK Regional Planning Service Data Guide
79
Table 7.4:
Change in FTE Jobs 2013-33
2013 2018
2018 2023
2023 2028
2028 2033
Total
Accommodation, Food Services &
Recreation
80
30
30
20
160
20
10
20
10
60
Construction
50
100
90
110
350
Extraction & Mining
0
0
0
0
0
Finance & Insurance
20
10
0
0
30
-50
-20
-20
-20
-110
Manufacturing
290
-270
-230
-160
-370
410
-30
-40
-30
310
Public Services
340
300
350
370
1,360
Transport & storage
80
0
30
40
150
Utilities
20
-20
-20
-20
-40
Wholesale & Retail
90
-60
-80
-60
-110
50
130
260
1,790
Sector
Total
1,350
(iii)
Source: Experian September 2015
7.24
The first five year period (2013-2018) is projected to experience the most growth
(+1,350 FTE jobs), with the final five year period (2028-2033) projected to experience
the second highest level (+260 FTE jobs).
7.25
Growth will be led by public services (+1,360 FTE jobs) with construction (+350 FTE
jobs) and professional and other private services (+310 FTE jobs) projected notable
growth. The largest losses are projected in manufacturing (-370 FTE jobs) information
and communication (-110 FTE jobs), wholesale and retail (-110 FTE jobs) and utilities (40 FTE jobs).
7.26
The annual rate of growth of jobs in Hyndburn over the next twenty years is projected to
be above the historic annual rate of growth. Taking a simple approach, this will mean
that more employment land is required. However, the impact that these changes have
on the requirements for employment land will directly reflect the contribution of these
changes made by B class uses.
7.27
For example, the projected growth in public sector jobs such as residential care and
social work; education; and health will not have a direct impact on employment land
requirements. Conversely, growth in professional and other services can be expected to
result in a modest increase in demand for B1a floorspace while losses in manufacturing
will result in underused B2 space, with potential to rationalise provision of land in this
Implications of Implied Growth Rates
80
Use Class. The majority of the projected decline in wholesale and retail relates to losses
in the retail sector, and so the impact on employment land will not be so great as if the
majority of loss was in wholesale, though this sector is also projected to decline.
Adjusted Baseline Scenario
7.28
The Experian baseline scenario (September 2015) has been assessed to identify
forecast employment by sector in Hyndburn from 2013-2033. The analysis indicates that
total employment will increase by 3,090 workforce jobs (10%).
7.29
However, Experian forecasts are based on allocation of projected growth at the national
level to the local area, reflecting the sectoral make up and strengths of the individual
local authority. They are based on historic trends and therefore do not take into account
specific employment yielding projects proposed for the area. They may also not
sufficiently account for growth potential within key sectors.
7.30
The remainder of this section therefore considers which employment yielding projects
known at the time of study, should be added to the Experian baseline forecasts to create
an adjusted scenario for Hyndburn’s employment growth to 2033. As part of this process
consideration is given to:
•
Potential employment yielding projects which are sufficiently progressed to be
relatively certain and therefore likely to come forward;
•
Any losses to employment within the Borough from relocations or closures; and
•
Whether employment growth reported within the business survey carried out in
May 2015 is already reflected within the Experian baseline or whether
adjustments should be made.
Key Projects
7.31
A number of pipeline schemes have been identified through consultations with public
sector and business stakeholders. Of these, it is considered that the following are highly
likely to be delivered and should therefore be incorporated within the Experian
projections to create an adjusted scenario:
•
Whitebirk Strategic Employment Site;
•
Three recently approved planning applications for development of distribution
space;
•
Exertis relocation; and
•
Minor uplift drawing on the results of the business survey
7.32
These are considered in more detail below.
7.33
The outline application includes 44,018 sqm of B8 land and 48,397 sqm of B2/B8
floorspace. Using standard HCA employment densities we estimate that the scheme will
Whitebirk Strategic Employment Site
81
support 1,647 FTE jobs. We have estimated this by assuming that 50% of B2/B8
floorspace is B2 and 50% is B8.
7.34
This equates to 672 FTE jobs in manufacturing and 975 FTE jobs in transport and
storage. Just over a third (38.3%) of land on the site is being allocated to accommodate
Blackburn’s growth, leaving 61.7% for Hyndburn’s growth. Discounting Blackburn’s
allocation, this equates to 415 manufacturing jobs and 602 transport and storage FTE
jobs supported in Hyndburn.
7.35
The site is expected to be delivered within the next five years. We have assumed that
30% of jobs will be on site while it is being developed out (early adopters), 50% will be
delivered in 2023-2028 and a further 20% will come forward between 2028-2033.
Approved Permissions
7.36
Three recently approved planning applications for expansion of existing premises or
delivery of new premises were also taken into account. The FTE employment
associated with these developments has been estimated using national guidance on
36
employment densities .
•
Senator International Limited – 80 FTE jobs associated with extension of existing
distribution centre and associated works.
•
Simon Jersey – 35 FTE jobs supported through a high bay warehouse extension.
•
Attock Communication Limited – 45 FTE jobs associated with the erection of
warehouses and offices.
7.37
These schemes are expected to be delivered in the short term. For the purposes of
modelling, we have assumed that 50% of the jobs will be delivered in the first five years
of the plan period (2013-2018) and 50% within the second five year phase (2018-2023).
7.38
We also identified a loss of 510 Exertis employees due to relocation from the Altham
Business Park near Accrington to a new national distribution centre at Burnley Bridge
Business Park, due for completion in 2016/17. Based on the projected ratio of 0.94 FTE
jobs to 1 employee in the sector in 2033, we estimate a loss of 481 transport and
storage FTE jobs from Hyndburn as a result of the relocation. We have assumed that
these jobs will be lost in 2017.
Exertis
Business Survey
7.39
36
There were a total of c.19,420 jobs in office, industrial and warehouse based activities in
Hyndburn in 2013. The business survey received responses from 39 businesses. Of
these, 26 businesses employing 1,974 jobs (10% of the 19,420 total jobs) indicated they
have plans to expand and create jobs, totalling 462 jobs, between 2015 and 2020.
When broken down by sector this indicates the following jobs increase. Note that
activities which do not relate to employment land (totalling an increase of 20 jobs) have
been excluded.
HCA (2010) Employment Densities Guide, 2nd edition
82
Table 7.5:
Business survey - Employment growth by sector, 5 years (20152020)
Sector
Jobs Increase
% Increase
5
21%
335
24%
Textiles and clothing manufacture
7
23%
Wood and paper manufacture
10
11%
Wholesale
38
17%
Printing and recorded media
6
15%
Land transport, storage and post
23
24%
Construction
12
21%
Professional services
6
120%
Computing and information services
Machinery and equipment manufacture
Source: Hyndburn Business Survey, May 2016
7.40
The following table compares these growth rates with those forecast for the 2015-2020
period in the Experian baseline.
Table 7.6:
Comparing Business Survey and Experian Projections by Sector
(2015-2020)
Sector
Business Survey
Experian
Computing and information services
21%
5%
Machinery and equipment manufacture
24%
-20%
Textiles and clothing manufacture
23%
17%
Wood and paper manufacture
11%
13%
Wholesale
17%
-3%
Printing and recorded media
15%
13%
Land transport, storage and post
24%
1%
Construction
21%
-9%
Professional services
120%
-4%
Source: Hyndburn Business Survey, May 2015; Experian baseline, September 2015
7.41
The main differences are for computing and information services; machinery and
equipment manufacture; wholesale; land transport, storage and post; construction; and
professional services.
83
7.42
In considering whether adjustments should be made on the basis of the business survey
the number of companies indicating growth was also taken into account. In total 20
companies indicated that they had plans to expand with the higher number of
companies being within the machinery and equipment manufacture sector. There were
also smaller proportions in a number of other sectors including computing and
information services; textiles and clothing manufacture; wood and paper manufacture;
wholesale; printing and recorded media; land transport, storage and post; construction
and professional services.
7.43
Based on the above, the following adjustments were made to the baseline scenario to
reflect known and probable changes to the employment base in Hyndburn:
•
Uplift of 433 manufacturing workforce jobs and 637 transport and storage
workforce jobs to reflect the Whitebirk Strategic Employment Site;
•
An increase of 172 transport and storage workforce jobs associated with the three
recently approved planning applications for increase of distribution and
warehousing operations;
•
Loss of 510 workforce jobs in land transport, storage and post to reflect the
relocation of Exertis to Burnley; and
•
An increase of 11 workforce jobs in machinery and equipment manufacturing to
37
reflect business expectations for growth (there could also be a case to be made
to uplift land transport, storage and post and construction employment).
Table 7.7:
Amendment Factors to Experian Baseline
Sector
Adjustment in Workforce Jobs
Manufacturing
+444 (433 plus 11)
Transport and Storage
+ 299 (637 plus 172 minus 510)
Source: Experian and Turley Analysis
7.44
The adjusted baseline scenario indicates total employment growth of 3,833 in Hyndburn
from 2013-2033 compared to the Experian baseline of 3,090 (+743). The following table
illustrates the growth by sector.
37
Based on average of Experian and business survey growth rate for 2015-2020. This equates to 2% or 10 jobs uplift
against the 500 jobs in the sector in 2015.
84
Table 7.8:
Adjusted Change in Workforce Jobs 2013-33
Sector
Experian baseline
Adjusted
Accommodation, Food
Services & Recreation
320
320
170
170
Construction
350
350
Extraction & Mining
0
0
Finance & Insurance
40
40
-100
-100
Manufacturing
-350
94
Professional & Other Private
Services
640
640
Public Services
1780
1780
Transport & storage
150
449
Utilities
-20
-20
Wholesale & Retail
110
110
3,090
3,833
Total
7.45
The adjusted scenario will form the basis of an additional assessment of employment
land requirements. This gives a range from 3,090 to 3,833 additional workforce jobs
over the period, or an average of 155 to 192 additional workforce jobs per annum.
Full Time Equivalent Jobs
7.46
To enable conversion into floorspace and subsequently employment land requirements,
the change in workforce jobs is again translated into Full Time Equivalent (FTE) jobs.
7.47
The adjusted baseline scenario indicates total FTE employment growth of 2,496 in
Hyndburn from 2013-2033 compared to the Experian baseline of 1,790 (+706). The
following table illustrates the growth by sector for five year time bands to enable
comparison with employment land supply within these periods.
7.48
The first five year period (2013-2018) is projected to experience the most growth (+954
FTE jobs), with the final five year period (2028-2033) projected to experience the
second highest level (+666 FTE jobs).
7.49
Growth will be led by public services (+1,360 FTE jobs) with transport and storage (+430
FTE jobs), construction (+350 FTE jobs) and professional and other private services
(+310 FTE jobs) also projected notable growth. Losses are projected in information and
communication (-110 FTE jobs), wholesale and retail (-110 FTE jobs) and utilities (-40
85
FTE jobs). Manufacturing is also projected to increase (+56 FTE jobs) rather than
contract as projected in the baseline scenario.
Table 7.9:
Adjusted Change in FTE Jobs 2013-33
Sector
2013-2018 2018-2023 2023-2028 2028-2033
Total FTE
Accommodation, Food
Services & Recreation
80
30
30
20
160
Agriculture, Forestry &
Fishing
20
10
20
10
60
Construction
50
100
90
110
350
Extraction & Mining
0
0
0
0
0
Finance & Insurance
20
10
0
0
30
Information &
communication
-50
-20
-20
-20
-110
Manufacturing
296
-140
-106
6
56
Professional & Other
Private Services
410
-30
-40
-30
310
Public Services
340
300
350
370
1,360
Transport & storage
-321
260
210
281
430
Utilities
20
-20
-20
-20
-40
Wholesale & Retail
90
-60
-80
-60
-110
Total
954
440
435
666
2,496
Future Employment Land Needs
7.50
Having considered the changing structure of the local economy and identified and tested
a Baseline and Adjusted scenario, consideration is given within this section to
calculating the potential “follow-on” effects in terms of typical floorspace and land
requirements over the period to 2033.
7.51
For the purposes of estimating future economic land requirements, change in Full Time
Equivalent (FTE) employment is used, converted into floorspace (using employment
densities) and then into land (using a plot ratio).
7.52
In accordance with the PPG this calculation should take account of the four key
relationships in translating employment outputs into land. They are:
86
7.53
•
Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC) sectors to use classes. This is
achieved by assigning jobs to land use categories, including those likely to occur
in B Class and Non B Class employment sectors.
•
SIC sectors to types of property. This is an estimate of the proportion of
employment that is likely to take place in each property sub-sector i.e. in office
and R&D floorspace (B1a/b), industrial floorspace (B1c/B2) and
warehouse/distribution floorspace (B8).
•
Employment to floorspace (using employment density). This involves the
conversion of employment to floorspace (sqm) using employment densities
derived from the HCA’s Employment Densities Guide 2nd Edition (2010),
•
Floorspace to site area (using plot ratio). The final step involves the application
of standard plot ratio assumptions to convert estimates for floorspace into
estimates for net developable land.
Turley has an established employment land calculator that is used to estimate economic
demand and to convert this to land requirements in line with the procedure outlined
above. A worked example is presented overleaf.
Table 7.10:
Example Employment Land Requirements Calculation
Assumption / calculation
Result
Total FTE jobs
1,000 B1a/b FTE jobs
Employment to
Floorspace
Assumed density = 13 sqm per FTE employee 13,000 sqm
Floorspace to site area
Assumed plot ratio = 40%
Calculation: 1000 x 14 sqm
3.25
hectares
Calculation: 13,000 sqm / 0.4 / 10,000
Source: Turley
7.54
Using the above technique the following presents an estimate of economic land
requirements for the Hyndburn area in line with the Labour Demand Scenarios
introduced above.
Forecast changes in FTE employment
7.55
The previous section concluded the following levels of FTE employment growth over the
period to 2033 under the Baseline and Adjusted Scenario.
Table 7.11:
FTE Employment Change 2013-2033 – Baseline and Adjusted
Scenario
Hyndburn
Baseline Scenario
Adjusted Scenario
+1,790
+2,506
Source: Experian and Turley
87
7.56
This shows that over the period to 2033, 1,790 FTE jobs, or 90 FTE jobs per annum, are
anticipated to be created under the Baseline Scenario, increasing to 2,506 FTE Jobs, or
125 FTE jobs per annum, under the Adjusted Scenario.
7.57
A detailed sectoral breakdown of this anticipated level of FTE employment creation is
summarised in the table below.
Table 7.12:
Hyndburn FTE Employment Change by Sector 2013-2033
Sector
Baseline Scenario
Adjusted Scenario
Accommodation & Food Services
180
180
Administrative & Supportive Services
120
120
60
60
Air & Water Transport
0
0
Chemicals (manufacture of)
-70
-31
Civil Engineering
10
10
Computer & Electronic Products
(manufacture of)
210
249
Computing & Information Services
-70
-70
Construction of Buildings
170
170
Education
210
210
Extraction & Mining
0
0
Finance
30
30
Food, Drink & Tobacco (manufacture of)
-60
-21
0
0
380
380
0
0
Land Transport, Storage & Post
160
440
Machinery & Equipment (manufacture of)
380
419
0
0
Metal Products (manufacture of)
-150
-111
Non-Metallic Products (manufacture of)
-130
-91
Other Manufacturing
-450
-450
Other Private Services
-130
-130
0
0
-130
-91
Fuel Refining
Health
Insurance & Pensions
Media Activities
Pharmaceuticals (manufacture of)
Printing and Recorded Media
(manufacture of)
88
Professional Services
270
270
Public Administration & Defence
-130
-130
Real Estate
60
60
Recreation
0
0
Residential Care & Social Work
900
900
Retail
-120
-120
Specialised Construction Activities
170
170
Telecoms
-50
-50
Textiles & Clothing (manufacture of)
-250
-211
Transport Equipment (manufacture of)
460
499
Utilities
-40
-40
0
0
-190
-113
Wholesale
Wood & Paper (manufacture of)
SIC sectors to use classes and type of property required
7.58
It is important to note that not all of these jobs will be associated with activities
occupying B use class employment space. In view of this, the net amount of FTE
employment growth expected to occur in B Use Class employment sectors needs to be
calculated.
7.59
As highlighted above, this is achieved by assigning jobs to land use categories,
including those likely to occur in B Use Class and Non B Use Class employment sectors
and an estimate of the proportion of employment that is likely to take place in each
property sub-sector i.e. in office and R&D floorspace (B1a/b), industrial floorspace
(B1c/B2) and warehouse/distribution floorspace (B8). The assumptions used to inform
this calculation, and which apply to all scenarios, can be found at Appendix 3. The
results of this analysis are presented in the tables below.
Table 7.13:
Change in B Use Class FTE Employment – Baseline and Adjusted
Scenario 2013-2033
Change in B Use Class Employment (FTE Employment)
Scenario
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
Baseline Scenario
223
-342
100
-19
Adjusted Scenario
223
41
352
+616
Source: Experian and Turley analysis
7.60
The above tables show that under the Baseline Scenario FTE employment change in
sectors occupying B use Class employment space is anticipated to decrease in overall
89
terms by 19 FTE jobs. In contrast positive growth of +616 FTE jobs, or 31 FTE jobs per
annum, is evident under the Adjusted Scenario.
7.61
Under the Baseline Scenario, the largest proportion of this growth is expected in B1a/b
employment (+223 FTE Jobs), followed by B8 (+100), however this positive growth is
offset by a loss of 324 B1c/B2 related FTE jobs.
7.62
When known projects and investments are taken into account in the Adjusted Scenario,
the proportion of B1c/B2 and B8 jobs increase by 383 and 252 FTE jobs respectively. .
7.63
The next step is to convert employment to floorspace (using an employment density)
and floorspace to land (using a plot ratio). The key assumptions applied for this based
estimate are summarised in the table below.
Converting employment to floorspace and land
38
Table 7.14:
Employment land calculation – key assumptions
Use class
Employment Density
B1a/b
13.3 sqm Gross External Area (GEA) per FTE employee
39
50%
B1c/B2
44.8 sqm Gross External Area (GEA) per FTE employee
40
40%
B8
70 sqm Gross External Area (GEA) per FTE employee
Plot ratio
40%
rd
Source: HCA’s Employment Densities Guide 3 Edition (2015) and ODPM Employment
Land Reviews: Guidance Note (2004)
7.64
By applying the density assumptions to the two Scenarios the following estimates of
future changes in employment floorspace are generated.
Table 7.15:
Expected change in B- Use Class Floorspace (Sqm GEA) 2013-2033 –
Baseline Scenario
Floorspace (Sqm)
Scenario
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
Baseline Scenario
2,966
-15,322
6,965
-5,391
Adjusted Scenario
2,966
1,851
24,653
29,470
Source: Turley
7.65
On the basis of the plot ratio assumptions described above, the table below sets out the
expected future demand for B Use Class employment land across the Hyndburn area
over the period 2013-2033 under both the Baseline and Adjusted Scenarios.
38
The HCA Guidance provides FTE job to floorspace ratios in Net Internal Area (NIA), Gross Internal Area (GIA) and
Gross External Area (GEA). As GEA provides a more appropriate basis upon which to calculate land requirements for
planning purposes, ratios based on NIA and GIA have been converted. This has been achieved by applying an uplift of
15% to translate NIA to GIA for offices and 5% for industrial. GIA is then converted to GEA by adding a further 5%.
39
Based on average job to floorspace ratio for B1a general office and call centre uses converted to GEA.
40
Based on combined average job to floorspace ratio for B1c and B2 uses.
90
Table 7.16:
Expected change in B Use Class land (Hectares) 2012-2033
Scenario
Land (Ha)
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
Baseline Scenario
0.5
-3.8
1.7
-1.6
Adjusted Scenario
0.6
0.5
6.2
7.3
Source: Turley
7.66
In summary, the labour demand approach generates: :
•
An overall negative requirement of -1.6 hectares of developable economic land
under the Baseline Scenario. This is driven by a loss of 3.8 hectares of land to
accommodate industrial uses and only modest growth in B1a/b and B8
employment. In some instances the lessening need for industrial land creates a
potential opportunity for premises and/or sites to be deployed to meet increased
need for warehousing and distribution sites. There is some evidence of this taking
place in Hyndburn although it is considered that many of the Borough’s older
industrial sites are poorly located for this purpose. If this is not possible then the
overall requirement would increase to 2.2 hectares under this scenario.
•
Under the Adjusted Scenario the higher forecast growth in employment results in
an estimated overall requirement for 7.3 hectares of land. This comprises 0.6
hectares of land to accommodate B1a/b office and R&D related uses, 0.5
hectares of land for B1c/B2 industrial uses and 6.2 hectares of land to
accommodate B8 Storage and Distribution related uses.
Labour Supply
7.67
The second approach to calculating future employment needs and land requirements is
based on an assessment of labour supply. This approach allows for an estimation of the
number of workers expected to be employed in Hyndburn over the period from 20132033, and in turn an estimation of future land requirements.
Balancing housing and employment
7.68
The PPG sets out that assessment of housing need should take into account the
employment growth likely in an area:
“Plan makers should make an assessment of the likely change in job numbers based on
past trends and/or economic forecasts as appropriate” (para 18).
7.69
41
41
In 2014, a Strategic Housing Market Assessment and Housing Needs Study was
jointly prepared for Hyndburn and Blackburn with Darwen to objectively assess the need
for housing across the housing market area. The Study acknowledged the relationship
between housing and economic growth, and reflects the Government’s view that house
building is critical for driving forward economic growth. It is acknowledged that historic
Nathaniel Litchfield Partners (July 2014) Strategic Housing Market Assessment & Housing Needs Study
91
levels of house building in Hyndburn have been particularly low, with the borough
delivering an average of 27 net additional dwellings annually.
7.70
The Study considered a range of future growth scenarios, based on various
demographic, economic and supply-led assumptions. The employment-led scenarios
are of particular relevance to the ELS, given that they consider the scale of population
growth required to support forecast employment change.
7.71
Relative to recent demographic trends and projections, the Study confirmed that a
higher level of population growth in Hyndburn would be required to support forecast
42
economic growth in the borough. Historic net out-migration from the borough could be
reversed under these scenarios, growing the labour force and supporting forecast levels
of job creation. This would necessitate a departure from historic trends and a significant
uplift in the recent rate of housing development.
7.72
An updated Housing Needs Assessment has since been prepared for Hyndburn alone
to take account of new demographic projections published by Government, which
43
represent the ‘starting point’ for assessing housing needs, as stated in the PPG . This
also considered the need for housing over a longer twenty year period from 2013 to
2033.
7.73
Again, the Assessment considers a range of future growth scenarios, a series of
employment-led projections modelled. Two of these take into account the labour
demand scenarios presented through this study, namely:
7.74
7.75
•
Baseline Experian Job Growth (Scenario E) – this scenario is based on
Experian’s local area based econometric model, published in September 2015.
This suggests that 3,090 additional workforce jobs could be created between
2013 and 2033, equating to 155 additional jobs per annum;
•
Adjusted Experian Job Growth (Scenario F) – in order to reflect the findings of
this study, a further scenario is modelled to reflect the adjusted baseline scenario
which forecasts the creation of 3,833 additional jobs in Hyndburn over the plan
period. This represents a growth of 192 jobs per annum;
A further two employment-led projections are modelled:
•
Constant Jobs (Scenario G) – this scenario assumes that the number of jobs
remains at the 2013 level until 2033, with no net job creation; and
•
Past Trends Job Growth (Scenario H) – this scenario projects forward past
trends, with if sustained would see a decline of 115 jobs annually.
This continues to suggest that additional housing above demographic needs would be
necessary to meet Hyndburn’s future growth potential. This can help to moderate the
42
Three employment scenarios were modelled in the Study, based on an Experian baseline forecast dated March
2014, a level of job growth likely to be generated through planned employment land provision and a stabilisation of job
growth with no net job creation
43
http://planningguidance.communities.gov.uk/blog/guidance/housing-and-economic-development-needsassessments/methodology-assessing-housing-need/#paragraph_015
92
high levels of net out-migration seen historically, which can assist in achieving a more
balanced population structure and retain an adequate labour supply to offset an ageing
population.
7.76
Hyndburn has historically seen a decline in the number of jobs in the borough, although
it is noted that even the demographic baseline – which would see a modest fall in the
population over the plan period – would moderate the decline in jobs to a level above
these past trends. A continuation of historic decline in job numbers is considered
neither reasonable nor desirable in the context of the NPPF.
7.77
This is particularly important to consider in the context of the latest Experian forecasts,
which anticipate more positive levels of job growth in Hyndburn. A substantial amount of
in-migration would be required – given that the modelling assumes that commuting
patterns remain fixed – and this would represent a significant step-change in the
economic fortunes of the borough which would generate an additional need for housing.
7.78
On this basis, the Adjusted Experian Job Growth scenario represents the upper end of
the range of objectively assessed needs concluded in the Assessment, which suggests
that between 175 and 317 dwellings would be needed annually in Hyndburn. This
incorporates an uplift to contribute towards meeting affordable housing needs.
7.79
Notwithstanding the above, the PGG highlights the importance of considering
demographically derived assessments of future employment needs and the implications
this may have on demand for employment land and floorspace.
7.80
For the purposes of this Study consideration has been given to the demographic-led
scenarios modelled in the latest Housing Need Assessment, and in particular, Scenario
Ai: 2012-based Sub-National Population Projection with Partial Catch-up Headship
Rates.
7.81
This Scenario indicates that the labour force will decrease by 2,595 employees from
2013-2033. The Assessment goes on to note that if long term migration trends are
increased, the labour force will decrease by 3,204 employees over this time period. Loss
of labour force of this scale will have considerable impacts on the ability for the area to
both attract inward investment as well as to fill newly created job posts.
Demographic-Led Scenarios
Future employment land needs
7.82
The estimated decline of 2,595 employees from Scenario Ai has been allocated to
sectors and converted to FTE equivalents across all sectors in the Borough as indicated
by ratio of FTE to workforce in the baseline Experian forecasts. Based on this analysis
of labour supply, the overall number of locally resident FTE workers across the Borough
is expected to decrease by -168 over the period from 2013-2033.
7.83
Keeping assumptions for employment densities and plot ratios the same, the use of the
labour supply approach produces the following results for expected future demand for B
Use Class land across the Hyndburn over the Plan period:
93
Table 7.17:
Expected change in B Use Class land (Hectares) 2013-2033 (Labour
Supply)
Land (Ha)
Scenario
Labour supply
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
-0.2
-4.9
-0.5
-5.6
Source: Turley
7.84
Based on these forecasts, under the labour supply approach to predicting future
employment land requirements, a net loss of -5.6 hectares of employment land is
anticipated.
7.85
It should be borne in mind that there are some limitations to this approach. In particular,
the results that are obtained by the usage of the labour supply approach are subject to
the volatility of sub-national population projections, which are usually issued every two
years by ONS. The scale of predicted demographic change identified by each series of
population projections can vary considerably as a result of the variability of national
population estimates, which can be influenced by economic factors as well as the
variability of domestic and international migration.
7.86
Another caveat that should be recognised is that the labour supply approach relies on
assumptions being made about future patterns of commuting to and from neighbouring
areas, which will be influenced in part by levels of employment land and residential
development in neighbouring districts.
7.87
It is apparent that the loss of labour force anticipated through the labour supply
approach would have considerable impacts on the ability for the area to both attract
inward investment as well as to fill newly created job posts. This is clearly a matter for
both housing and economic policy, however planning for employment land on the basis
is considered to be neither positive nor pragmatic given the very apparent qualitative
need to support business growth and investment, and in turn retain a higher proportion
of jobs and workers within the Borough in order to grow the Hyndburn economy.
Past take up
7.88
The third and final approach considered is the past take up approach. Hyndburn
Council’s monitoring data provides details of the scale of completed employment related
development in the Borough over recent years. Data is available to cover the period
from 2011/12, as set out in the following table.
94
Table 7.18:
Completed Floorspace 2011/12 and 2014/15 (sqm)
Completed Floorspace (sqm)
Use Class
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Total
B1a
0
0
0
273
273
B1b
0
0
0
0
0
B1c
0
474
0
0
474
B2
0
2,546
15,019
2,997
20,562
B8
0
2,545
5,060
10,523
18,128
Total
0
5,565
20,079
13,793
39,437
7.89
The table demonstrates that since 2011/12, around 39,437 sqm of employment
floorspace has been completed in Hyndburn. Of this, just over 50% has been for B1c/B2
industrial use, followed by B8 floorspace which represented around 46% of floorspace
developed over the same period. Interestingly, this has been achieved in the context of
falling employment in a number of B Use Class sectors suggesting that underlying
demand for industrial land in Hyndburn remains strong.
7.90
In contrast, just 273 sqm of office floorspace has been developed over the 4 year period
from 2011/12. This is consistent with stakeholder feedback which indicated that
Hyndburn does not have an established office market, with the Borough’s strength
instead being in industrial related sectors.
7.91
The following presents an analysis based on take up of employment land.
Table 7.19:
Employment Land Take Up 2011/12 to 2014/15
Total land (ha)
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
0
0.61
5.62
6.23
Source: Hyndburn Borough Council and Turley Analysis
7.92
Whilst past development rates are subject to a degree of volatility, and cannot be relied
upon in isolation, extrapolating these forward provides a useful proxy for considering
future levels of demand for different types of employment floorspace.
7.93
Extrapolating the annual average take up of 1.56 hectares per annum between 2011/12
and 2014/15 forward over the 20 year period from 2013 to 2033 would generate a
requirement for 31.2 hectares. No take up was recorded in 2011/12 therefore excluding
this year and taking a three year average would increase the overall requirement to
around 42 hectares, based on an average annual take up rate of 2.1 hectares per
annum.
95
Table 7.20:
Projected Employment Land Take Up 2013-2033
B1a/b
Land Requirement based on 4 year
average 2011/12-2014/15
Land requirement based on 3 year
average 2012/13-2014/15
(xiii)
B1c/B2
B8
Total
0
3.1 (xii)
28.1
31.2
0 (xiv)
4.1 (xv)
37.5
41.6
Source: Turley
7.94
In the absence of monitoring data covering the period from 2006/07 to 2010/11 it is
appropriate to consider employment land take up over a longer period. The 2008
Employment Land Study notes that between 1991 and 2006 51.15 hectares of
employment land was taken up. This equates to an average of 3.41 hectares of land per
annum. Extrapolating this forward over the 20 year plan period would generate a
requirement for 68 hectares of employment land. This is the basis upon which the Core
Strategy requirement of 58 hectares over the period from 2009 to 2026 has been
established.
7.95
There are, however, some limitations and drawbacks associated with the use of the past
take up approach including:
7.96
•
Past allocations of land for employment use may reflect historic policy objectives
and economic strategies that are no longer relevant or appropriate to future
planning purposes.
•
Past allocations may also reflect historic patterns of economic and business
development that are no longer relevant, given changes to business practices,
market conditions and opportunities presented by technological change. For
example, over the past 10-15 years there have been significant advances made
in manufacturing technologies and business practices (e.g. lean manufacturing,
greater use of offshoring, etc.) that results in declining demand for industrial land
in many areas. Similarly, the rise of internet shopping has increased demand for
premises for warehousing and distribution.
•
A further implication of technological and business practice change is that there
may be an accumulated legacy of poorly utilised existing employment land that
could be recycled for modern uses rather than new sites becoming available.
The use of the more recent monitoring data also has limitations given that it only covers
a 4 year period during which time the impacts of the recession were still being felt; no
completed floorspace or recorded take up in 2011/12 being evidence of this. Despite
there being a degree of volatility in the figures it is considered that the 3 year average,
which represents a more up to date position, should be used to compare this approach
to the results of the labour demand and labour supply scenarios.
96
Overall assessment of the different approaches
7.97
This section has reviewed evidence with respect to future employment needs and land
requirements across Hyndburn using three complementary approaches:
•
Sectoral and employment forecasts and projections (labour demand);
•
Demographically derived assessments of future employment needs (labour
supply techniques); and
•
Analysis based on the past take-up of employment land and property and/or
future property market requirements.
7.98
For labour demand forecasts from Experian (September 2015) have been used to
generate and test two potential scenarios; a Baseline Scenario and an Adjusted
Scenario taking into account know projects and investments. These are reflected in the
Housing Needs Assessment prepared by NLP under Scenarios E and F. For the labour
supply scenario this is drawn from NLP’s modelling using the latest Sub National
Population Projections for Hyndburn and their adjusted scenario which seek to achieve
a partial catch up for headship rates (Scenario Ai). Past take up has also been
considered drawing on monitoring data compiled by Hyndburn Borough Council.
7.99
The results of these different assessments are summarised in the table below.
Table 7.21:
Summary of Employment Land Requirements (2013-2033)
Land Requirement 2013-2033 (Ha)
Scenario
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
Labour Demand (Baseline Scenario)
0.6
-3.8
1.7
-1.6
Labour Demand (Adjusted Scenario)
0.6
0.5
6.2
7.3
Labour Supply
-0.2
-4.9
-0.5
-5.6
Past Take Up
0.0
4.1
37.5
41.6
Source: Turley
7.100 Both the labour demand (Adjusted Scenario) and past take up approaches generate a
positive requirement of between 7.3 hectares and 41.6 hectares. In contrast the labour
demand (Baseline Scenario) and Labour Supply approaches generate a negative
requirement.
7.101 With the exception of the labour supply approach, the analysis highlights potential
growth in the warehousing and distribution sector which has been evidenced recently by
investments by Senator International and Whatmore, and also the recent relocation of
Extertis to Burnley Bridge. The Labour Demand (Adjusted Scenario) and past take up
approaches also highlight potential, albeit modest, growth in the manufacturing sectors.
97
7.102 Whilst the land requirements generated under all three scenarios are only indicative,
and will change subject to the level of analysis and assumptions applied, they provide a
good indication of the sectors which are likely to drive economic land requirements
across the Hyndburn area over the next 20 years.
7.103 In reality, however, it is likely that the actual performance of Hyndburn’s economy and
commercial property market will lie somewhere between the labour demand and past
trends projections. In such instances it is appropriate to consider the requirement as a
range, which in this case is equivalent to a potential net requirement of between 7.3
hectares and 40.6 hectares.
Allowance for losses
7.104 In planning for employment land it is prudent to make an allowance for some
replacement of losses of existing employment land that may be developed for other, non
B Class uses.
7.105 The monitoring data provided by Hyndburn Borough Council indicates that between
2011/12 and 2014/15 around 9 hectares of employment land was lost in the Borough,
equivalent to 2.25 hectares per annum. Extrapolating this forward over 20 years would
generate a requirement to replace 45 hectares of land. This is considered excessive and
unnecessary given that as Hyndburn’s economy continues to evolve and restructure the
supply of poorer and unsuitable sites will reduce and in turn the pace at which land is
lost will slow.
7.106 A more robust approach is to base losses on a proportion of floorspace known or
anticipated to be lost over the plan period based on an assessment of actual losses and
extant permissions. This floorspace can then be converted to land using the same plot
ratios assumptions introduced above.
Table 7.22:
Anticipated losses based on completions and extant permissions
(2013-2033)
Anticipated Losses
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Total
Floorspace (sqm)
106
26,221
21,270
47,597
Land (Ha)
0.02
6.6
5.3
11.9
7.107 Whilst this figure is likely to take in account the loss of a number of poorer quality and
obsolete employment sites across the Borough, a further 30 hectares across existing
employment areas has been assessed as being poor and potentially suitable for
alternative uses (see section 8 supply assessment). This equates to the potential loss of
around 41 hectares of employment land over the plan period, when completions and
extant permissions are taken into account.
7.108 The figure of 41 hectares is not too dissimilar to the projection of 45 hectares based on
past trends, but is again considered quite excessive as it assumes that all poor quality
98
sites will be redeveloped, when in reality this will be highly dependent on demand from
alternative uses.
7.109 On the basis that not all of these losses be achieved or need to be replaced, an
allowance of 10 hectares (or 25%) is therefore proposed in order to allow for some
continued replacement of older obsolete sites and premises with better quality provision.
Allowance for choice and flexibility
7.110 In order to plan positively for potential future employment growth it is also considered
best practice to add a margin of choice/flexibility factor to the land demand forecast
calculation. This is an additional amount of land that ensures a reasonable choice of
sites for businesses and developers and to allow for delays in sites coming forward or
premises being developed.
7.111 Determining a robust figure for margin of choice is not an exact science and will always
be open to a degree of subjectivity. In order to ensure there is sufficient choice in the
Hyndburn’s land supply, an allowance equivalent to five years supply would be
appropriate for enabling the Council to remain responsive to potential changes and
increased market demand that may occur over the plan period.
7.112 It is acknowledged that this approach differs from that taken in the previous employment
land study, which considered this not to be appropriate in Hyndburn given the number of
existing employment sites that were likely to be recycled for employment use during the
plan period. Whilst this may continue to be the case, it is considered that such sites
should not be relied upon given the uncertainties regarding viability and timescales for
delivery. It is also questionable whether the recycling of the poorer quality employment
should be encouraged given that many of these sites are inappropriately located for
modern day employment use.
7.113 On the basis of the requirements generated above, a margin of choice equivalent to the
following has been be applied to each scenario:
•
Adjusted Baseline – 1.8 hectares
•
Past Take Up – 10.3 hectares
7.114 The estimated gross land requirement arising from each scenario when these
allowances are taken into account is presented in the table below.
Table 7.23:
Estimated Gross Land Requirements (2013-2033)
Scenario
B Use Class
Land
Requirement
Allowance for
the replacement
of Losses
Margin of
Choice
Total
Requirement
(2013-2033)
Adjusted
7.3
10
1.8
19.1
Past Take Up
41.6
10
10.3
61.9
Source: Turley
99
7.115 Taking into account allowances for losses and margin of choice the range increases to
between 19 hectares under the Adjusted Scenario to 62 hectares under a past take up
approach between 2013 and 2033.
7.116 As highlighted above, Hyndburn Borough Council’s monitoring data indicates that 5.2
hectares of employment land has already been developed over the first two years of the
plan period from 2013. As a result the Borough has a residual requirement of between
13.9 hectares and 56.7 hectares to be met through employment land allocations.
100
8. Supply Assessment
8.1
In line with National Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) it is important that local planning
authorities identify a future supply of land which is suitable, available and deliverable for
44
economic development uses over the plan period . Identifying such a supply will help
enable the district to respond to business requirements and meet its objectively
assessed economic development needs identified in Section 7.
8.2
In line with this requirement, the assessment of the Borough’s current and potential
future land supply has focussed on:
•
Assessing the adequacy of existing employment sites and those which should be
retained for future employment use. This included an appraisal of 72 existing
employment areas.
•
Assessing the suitability of allocated employment land in the Borough yet to be
developed. In total 11 allocated employment sites were assessed including the
strategic site allocations at Whitebirk and Huncoat.
8.3
Whilst many of the sites feature in existing development plans, and would have
generally be considered suitable locations for employment use in previous rounds of
policy, the focus of the appraisal is on whether circumstances have changed which
would alter their suitability.
8.4
The spatial distribution of the employment sites assessed through the study is illustrated
on the plan overleaf.
44
National Planning Practice Guidance (2014) ‘Housing and economic land availability assessment’ paragraph 001
101
Figure 8.1:
Existing and Allocated Employment Sites
79
8.5
8.6
In order to determine the quality and suitability of the existing supply, all sites were
inspected during August and September 2015 with proformas used to capture key
information, including:
•
Reference, name, address and size;
•
Location type;
•
Site description;
•
Existing and previous uses;
•
Accessibility;
•
Adjacent land uses;
•
Existing employment site quality;
•
Evidence of marketing; and
•
Suitability for employment or alternative uses.
This exercise has been led by Colliers International with inputs from Turley. The main
findings from the assessment are provided below. Completed site proformas for each
site can be found at Appendix 3.
Assessment of Existing Employment Sites
8.7
In accordance with PPG, market demand factors have been considered to enable
conclusions to be reached regarding the adequacy and ongoing market attractiveness of
the Borough’s existing employment sites.
8.8
In order to ensure a degree of consistency to the approach taken within the previous
Employment Land Study the overall quality of sites – which will be used amongst other
factors to inform future policy and planning application decisions – has been assessed
on the following basis:
•
Good – sites in sustainable locations which perform well in market terms. These
sites are highly suitable for employment use given their location, accessibility and
levels of market demand and should be protected and retained for future
employment use over the plan period.
•
Adequate – sites and locations which serve a particular business need but which
are of a lower quality to the Borough’s stock of ‘good’ employment sites. Whilst in
most cases they remain suitable for employment, alternative uses may be
appropriate, particularly where their ongoing employment use proves to be
unviable. Such sites should therefore be monitored and released where there is
clear evidence that the site is no longer suitable for ongoing employment use.
•
Poor – sites and locations which are poor quality and no longer suited to modern
day employment uses. Such sites may also suffer from higher levels of vacancy
79
due to the quality and market attractiveness of the premises on offer. In many
instances they are better suited for alternative uses. Poor sites should not be
protected for future employment use over the plan period.
8.9
A total of 72 existing employment sites were inspected by Colliers as part of this
process, covering 191.8 hectares in total site area. The headline results from this survey
are summarised below, with more detailed site specific analysis provided at Appendices
3 and 4.
80
Figure 8.2:
Appraisal of Existing Employment Sites
81
8.10
Consideration has been given to the distribution of good, adequate and poor quality
sites by area. This shows that of the 191.8 hectares assessed 113 hectares, or 59%,
was assessed as good. The majority of this employment land, which is currently in use
and within operational industrial estates, is associated with employment provision at the
Altham Industrial Estate and Junction 7 Business Park. Altham performs particularly well
with space in high demand.
8.11
Although there is perhaps less demand at Junction 7 at the current time, Colliers
consider it to be one of the best located employment sites in the Borough.
Figure 8.3:
Existing Employment Sites Assessment
Quality
Area (Ha)
% of Total
Good
113.6
59%
Adequate
45.1
24%
Poor
33.1
17%
Total Area
191.8
100%
Source: Colliers International and Turley Analysis
8.12
A further 45 hectares (24%) was assessed as adequate and 33.1 hectares (17%) as
poor. However, the inclusion of one or two larger ‘good’ sites does skew this analysis to
a degree. It also masks the industrial legacy Hyndburn and the proliferation of an
increasingly ageing stock of employment floorspace.
8.13
This is highlighted in the chart and table below which shows the distribution of good,
adequate and poor quality sites across the Borough’s main settlements. In contrast to
the analysis presented above, this highlights a much lower proportion of good quality
sites with just 15%, or 11, of the Boroughs existing employment areas being assessed
as good.
Figure 8.4:
Existing Employment Sites Assessment by Settlement
12
Number of Sites/Employment Areas
10
8
6
4
2
0
Accrington
Altham
Church
Clayton-le-Moors
Good
Adequate
Great Harwood
Poor
Knuzden / Whitebirk
Oswaldtwistle
Rishton
Loss
82
8.14
Whilst this shows that Accrington and Church have the largest number of good
employment sites, these are relatively small in scale and combined only cover around
31 hectares in area, equivalent to just 17% of land occupied by existing employment
areas.
8.15
Outside of these settlements the supply of good sites is more evenly distributed with
Altham, Clayton-le-Moor, Great Harwood and Oswaldtwistle each with one ‘good’
employment site each.
Table 8.1:
Employment Sites Assessment by Settlement
Settlement
Good
Adequate
Poor
Loss
Total
Accrington
4
10
9
1
24
Altham
1
0
0
0
1
Church
3
2
1
0
6
Clayton-le-Moors
1
4
1
0
6
Great Harwood
1
4
3
2
10
Knuzden / Whitebirk
0
1
0
0
1
Oswaldtwistle
1
4
5
2
12
Rishton
0
4
8
0
12
Grand Total
11
29
27
5
72
15.3%
40.3%
37.5%
6.9%
100%
% of Total
8.16
The distribution of adequate and poor sites is more sporadic but is nevertheless
significant in highlighting the current reliance on lower quality sites and premises in less
commercially attractive locations.
8.17
In total, 29 employment areas were assessed as adequate, representing 40% of the
sites assessed. Of these, the majority (10 sites) were located in Accrington with a more
even spread across the other main settlements. A further 9 sites across Accrington were
assessed as poor. This is equivalent to 83% of the town’s existing operational
employment areas being classed as either adequate or poor.
8.18
Outside of Accrington, the second highest concentration of employment areas can be
found in Oswaldtwistle and Rishton. Of the 12 employment areas within each
settlement, around a third are classified as adequate.
8.19
As identified above, Oswaldtwistle has 1 good employment site – the West End
Business Park – with a further 5 sites being classified as poor. A further two sites have
been redeveloped for residential use since 2008.
8.20
In Rishton, the majority of the sites – 8 or 67% - were assessed as being poor. The
supply in Great Harwood is also characterised by 4 adequate and 3 poor sites,
83
equivalent to 88% of the 8 sites currently in active employment use in this area. Again
there is evidence of employment sites being lost to other uses over the period since
2008.
8.21
Although Clayton-le-Moor has fewer sites, in proportionate terms the overall supply is of
a better quality with 1 poor, 4 adequate and 1 good employment site at Junction 7.
8.22
From inspection a number of sites had already been redeveloped for alternative uses.
These losses have therefore been included to illustrate where a change of use has
occurred on employment sites assessed as adequate or poor in the previous
Employment Land Study. The inclusion of these sites also serves to identify where there
has been pressure from other uses.
8.23
These sites, which cover a site area of approximately 4.4 hectares, are summarised in
the table below.
Losses
Table 8.2:
Employment Sites redeveloped for alternative uses
Site
Area
Use
Albion Mill, Water Street, Great Harwood
0.97ha
Health
Metflex, Queen Street, Great Harwood
1.78ha
Retail
Dale Street Works, Scaitcliffe, Accrington
0.60ha
Community Centre
and D1 use
Peel Fold Mill, Stanhill Lane, Oswaldtwistle
0.57ha
Residential
Site off Norman Road, Oswaldtwistle
0.48ha
Residential
Summary
8.24
This analysis concludes by presenting a summary of those existing employment areas
which should be retained, monitored and/or released.
84
Figure 8.5:
Council
Ref
6
9
12
13
16
23
25
28
31
34
36
37
42
43
44
46
47
48
B
D
H
L
M
N
P
Q
V
W
X
Z
N/A
N/A
Turley
Ref
GH05
GH08
CLM02
CLM03
RIS01
ACC01
ACC03
ACC06
ACC09
ACC11
ACC13
ACC14
OSW05
OSW06
CHU01
CHU03
CHU04
KW01
ACC16
RIS08
RIS11
ACC18
ACC19
ACC20
CHU05
CHU06
OSW12
ACC22
ACC23
RIS12
ALT01
CLM06
Appraisal of Existing Employment Areas
Settlement
Address
Great Harwood Premier Mill, Waverledge Street, Great Harwood
Great Harwood New Plough Yard, Queen Street, Great Harwood
Clayton-le-Moors North of Victoria Street, Clayton-le-Moors
Clayton-le-Moors South of Victoria Street, Clayton-le-Moors
Rishton
North Parker Street, Rishton
Accrington
Hambledon Mill, Marlborough Road, Accrington
Accrington
Queens Mill, Penny House Lane
Accrington
Fairfield House, Fairfield Street, Spring Hill
Accrington
Caligen Foam, Shop Lane, Accrington
Accrington
Alliance Business Centre, Claret Street
Accrington
Hindle Street, Accrington
Accrington
Volvo Garage, Sydney Street, Accrington
Oswaldtwistle
West End Business Park, Blackburn Road, Oswaldtwistle
Oswaldtwistle
Springfield Street, Oswaldtwistle
Church
Churchbridge Works, Church Hall
Church
Aero Mill, Kershaw Street, Accrington
Church
Albion Mill, Marsden Street and Church Street, Accrington
Knuzden / Whitebirk
Walker Steel, Abbott Clough Avenue, Intack
Accrington
Globe Works, Richmond Street, Accrington
Rishton
Rishton Reservoir, Blackburn Road, Rishton
Rishton
Holt Mill Area, Blackburn Road, Rishton
Accrington
Argyle Street Works, Accrington
Accrington
Land between Hyndburn Rd / Blackburn Rd
Accrington
Richmond Industrial Estate, Richmond Street
Church
Blythes, Blackburn, Church
Church
Alleytroyds, Church
Oswaldtwistle
Rear New Lane, Oswaldtwistle
Accrington
Mill at Dunnyshop, St Paul St, Accrington
Accrington
KCL Commercial, Willows Lane, Bedlam
Rishton
Spring Street Garages, Brook Street / Spring Street, Rishton
Altham
Altham Industrial Estate
Clayton-le-Moors Junction 7 Business Park
Site Area
1.53
0.85
0.6
0.97
0.95
3.11
0.58
1.24
2.7
0.44
0.52
0.97
0.98
0.23
4.6
0.48
1.9
0.79
1.03
0.84
1.26
0.69
1.32
2.59
17.52
4.54
0.33
0.4
0.83
0.13
67
13.08
Quality
of Site
Adequate
Good
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Good
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Good
Adequate
Good
Adequate
Good
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Poor
Good
Good
Good
Good
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Poor
Good
Good
Recommendation
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Retain
Suitable alternative uses
Residential
None
None
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential / Retail
Residential
Residentail / Other
Residential
Retail / Leisure
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
None
None
Retail
None
None
Residential / Retail / Leisure
None
Residential
None
None
None
Residential
85
Council
Ref
2
5
7
10
11
14
20
21
22
24
29
30
32
38
45
A
C
E
G
I
O
R
U
Y
Turley
Ref
GH02
GH04
GH06
GH09
CLM01
CLM04
RIS05
RIS06
RIS07
ACC02
ACC07
ACC08
ACC10
OSW01
CHU02
ACC15
OSW07
RIS09
GH10
ACC17
ACC21
OSW08
OSW11
ACC24
Settlement
Great Harwood
Great Harwood
Great Harwood
Great Harwood
Clayton-le-Moors
Clayton-le-Moors
Rishton
Rishton
Rishton
Accrington
Accrington
Accrington
Accrington
Oswaldtwistle
Church
Accrington
Oswaldtwistle
Rishton
Great Harwood
Accrington
Accrington
Oswaldtwistle
Oswaldtwistle
Accrington
Address
St. Lawrence Mill, Mill Street, Great Harwood
Waverledge Business Park, Waverledge Street, Great Harwood
Cambridge Street, Great Harwood
Abattoir Site - Wood Street
Willow Mill, Lower Barnes Street, Clayton-le-Moors
Atlas Street Works
Meadow Head, Henry Street, Rishton
Ashworth Street, Rishton
York Mill, Levesey Street, Rishton
Pioneer Works, Horne Street, Accrington
Springhill Works, Exchange Street / Fairfield Street
Victoria Works / Royal Mill / Lodge Mill
Perseverance Mill / Lower Grange Mill, Accrington
Coronation Mill, Victoria Street, Oswaldtwistle
Mato Works, Kirk Road, Church
Union Street garage, Accrington
Stonebridge Mill, Mill Street, Oswaldtwistle
Taylors Yard, Canal Side, Spring Street South, Rishton
Land off Harwood lane, Great Harwood
Belgarth Road Works, Milnshaw, Accrington
Land next to Arnold Clark, Hyndburn Road, Accrington
White Ash Bridge, Coach Depot Area, Blackburn Road, Oswaldtwistle
Brookside Industrial Estate, Oswaldtwistle
Manchester Road, Accrington
Site Area
1.28
1.42
0.89
7.13
0.55
3.03
0.25
0.09
0.78
0.65
1.02
1.42
1.67
1.82
1.13
0.17
1.12
0.72
1.09
0.25
0.3
2.73
7.91
3.51
Quality
of Site
Poor
Adequate
Poor
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Poor
Adequate
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Adequate
Poor
Recommendation
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Monitor
Residential / Leisure
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
None
None
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Retail / Leisure
Residential
Employment / Residential
Residential
86
Council
Ref
1
17
18
19
26
27
39
F
J
S
T
Turley
Ref
GH01
RIS02
RIS03
RIS04
ACC04
ACC05
OSW02
RIS10
CLM05
OSW09
OSW10
Settlement
Great Harwood
Rishton
Rishton
Rishton
Accrington
Accrington
Oswaldtwistle
Rishton
Clayton-le-Moors
Oswaldtwistle
Oswaldtwistle
Address
Windsor Road, Great Harwood
Wheatfield Mill, Wheatfield Street, Rishton
Parker Street, Rishton
Land off Knowles Street, Rishton
Woodnook Works, Bath Street, Accrington
AAT (Northern) Site
Rhyddings Works, Rhyddings Street, Oswaldtwistle
Bridgefield Mills, Spring Street South, Rishton
Rear Owen Street, Accrington
Builders compound, Roe Greave Road, Oswaldtwistle
Former Chemical Works, Brookside lane / Nook Lane, Oswaldtwistle
Site Area
2.05
0.9
0.41
1.03
1.83
2.51
1.61
0.77
0.14
0.31
4.28
Quality
of Site
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Recommendation
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Release
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential / Retail / Community
Residential
Residential
Residential
Residential
87
Assessment of Existing Allocations
8.25
The second part of the site assessment has focussed on the suitability of the Borough’s
existing supply of employment land yet to be developed. A total 11 allocated
employment sites have been considered as part of this exercise.
Table 8.3:
Allocated employment sites
Turley
Reference
Council Reference
Site Name
Site Area (Ha)
KW02
CS 2012 Whitebirk
Whitebirk Strategic Site
33.78
ALT01/02
CS 2012 Altham
Business Park
Extension, Altham
2.00
HUN01
CS 2012 Huncoat
Huncoat Strategic Site
28.48
HUN02
Allocation E
Huncoat Industrial Estate,
Huncoat
1.80
CLM06/01
Allocation G
GEC Test Beds, Junction 7,
Clayton-le-Moors
3.97
CLM07
Allocation K
Whinney Hill Road, Clayton-leMoors
2.79
ALT01/01
Allocation L
Altham Industrial Estate, Altham
2.86
CLM08
Allocation M
Moorfield Industrial Estate,
Clayton-le-Moors
7.30
GH11
Allocation N
Heys Lane, Great Harwood
1.42
KW02
Allocation T
Whitebirk 5, Rishton
1.00
GH12
Allocation W
Nuttall Avenue, Great Harwood
3.00
Total
8.26
88.40
Collectively these sites currently provide a forward supply of 88.4 hectares of land for
B1, B2 and B8 related development and employment use. A plan showing the spatial
distribution of these sites is provided below.
88
Table 8.4:
Allocated Employment Sites
8.27
As many are historic allocations, which were either allocated within the 1996 Local Plan
or more recent Core Strategy, the focus of this assessment is on factors which may
have altered their suitability.
8.28
As part of this assessment Colliers have appraised each site against the criteria
introduced earlier within this section at paragraph 8.4. Each site has then been scored
against a range of market attractiveness factors.
8.29
The results of Colliers’ site appraisals are presented in detail below, with further detailed
analysis available with Appendices 3 and 6.
89
8.30
This sites general topography is flat open space and a greenfield site providing one of
the largest future employment sites in Lancashire with outline planning permission in
place. The site is also located in an extremely prominent location adjacent to Junction 6
of the M65 motorway.
8.31
This site is now known as known as Frontier Park and will comprise a mixed use
development of B1c, B2 and B8 floorspace, together with a drive through (Class A5),
Pub/Restaurant (Class A3/A4), a hotel (Class 1) and a petrol filling station. The plans by
th
Praxis Holdings were approved on 13 October 2015 by Hyndburn Council. It is
understood that Praxis has pre-let the five-acre roadside element of the development to
a range of nationally branded occupiers, including a drive-thru, petrol filling station and
budget hotel operator. Preparatory works are scheduled to start on site in December
2015 and expected to last nine months. The initial phase of construction is set to begin
in 2016 with the first building occupied by the end of 2017. It is envisaged that the entire
development will be completed within 5 years.
8.32
Colliers view is that this site is one of the most important sites that are to be developed
in next 5 years. This site is currently marketed on behalf of Praxis by Trevor Dawson
and Bilfinger GVA, there is good market awareness of this site with commercial
industrial and logistical agents in the North West. The agents indicated that some of the
roadside plots were under offer and some were sold. The industrial units planned for
the site are between 100,000-475,000 sqft.
90
Altham Business Park Extension
8.33
This is a greenfield site on a slight slope to the rear of Altham Business Park. The plot
is bounded by two elevations by commercial premises, including the new Whatmore
extension. The other boundaries are a field on Altham Lane. Access to the site is from
A678 relatively good although the widening of Altham Lane is possibly needed for the
site to be developed for employment use. This site is currently marketed by Petty
Charted Surveyors who confirmed that the site is currently under offer.
8.34
Colliers view is that this site is a natural extension to Altham Business Park and that
employment development for B1, B2 and B8 is the most viable option. This site is a
short term development opportunity and likely to be developed in the next 5 years.
8.35
It is recommended that this site is retained for employment use.
91
Huncoat Strategic Employment Site
8.36
This site is made up of a cleared brownfield site of a former power station and to the
south a greenfield site with challenging topography in parts.
8.37
Colliers view is that the development for employment use is constrained by poor access
of major road links, challenging topography of the site and possible contamination
issues. A great deal of infrastructure will be needed in order for this site to be
developed. It is unlikely that this site will be developed for employment use without
improved road infrastructure put in place linking it to the M65 or the M62.
8.38
In the absence of improved infrastructure, its prospects for employment related
development are low as at the current time there are better located more readily
available sites to be developed for employment use. The site has better prospects of
residential development in the next 5-10 years.
8.39
It is recommended that the Council reviews the allocation and considers allowing a
wider mix of uses to be developed on the site. Further analysis of the individual
components submitted through the Call for Sites exercise is presented below.
92
Huncoat Industrial Estate, Huncoat
8.40
This is a large industrial estate made up of modern part brick and steel buildings portal
framed industrial/distribution units. There is a mixture of B1, B2 and B8 uses and the
surrounding property is made up of large (circa 80,000 sqft+) good quality,
industrial/distribution units. The site is also situated within the defined urban boundary in
Huncoat Business Park. Colliers view is that this is a good employment site location
and short term (0-5 years) development opportunity providing expansion land for the
Senator Group.
8.41
93
GEC Test Beds, Clayton Le Moors
8.42
The site is located to the west of Junction 7 Business Park directly off the northern spur
leading to the M65 at Junction 7 and is a flat open storage site. Previously the subject of
a wider planning permission for a mixed use redevelopment, the current owners
Industrious have again put the site forward for redevelopment in the call for site
exercise.
8.43
Colliers view is that this site is an important employment site and suitably located for
employment type uses.
This site, if redeveloped, also has the potential to attract
investment and relocation of businesses to the Hyndburn area. It is considered that
whilst the site is suitable for B1, B2 and B8 use, it is likely to be developed for a mix
uses, including an element of residential, in order to make redevelopment a more viable.
This site is a medium term development opportunity and likely to be redeveloped in the
next 5-10 years.
8.44
It is recommended that this site is retained for employment use, but a mix of uses be
considered as part of a wider programme of investment as the Junction 7 Business
Park.
94
Whinney Hill Road, Clayton-le-Moors
8.45
This is a cleared level brownfield site. Outline planning permission has previously been
obtained for 66,000 sqft of B1 light industrial and B8 warehouse units on this site. The
planning permission has now lapsed. The adjacent uses to the site are B1, B2 and
residential which was built in the last 15 years. This site has relatively good access to
Junction 7 of the M65 motorway. This site is currently being marketed by Trevor
Dawson and is likely to be developed for B1 and B8 use.
8.46
Colliers view is that the site will appeal to local SMEs who want good basic small lock up
units to trade from. As this site is currently under offer it is considered to be a short term
development opportunity.
8.47
95
Land at Altham Industrial Estate, Altham
8.48
This site is located on a modern industrial estate with large portal frame units of 30,000
sqft+ in B1, B2 and B8 use. The site’s total area is almost 3 hectares split into 3 small
sites, 2 of which are long and narrow. The sites are undeveloped greenfield plots, with
the remaining site to the west of the estate allocated around an existing unit in use by
Andrew Industries Ltd. Access to the site is good with wide roads suitable for HGV
access.
8.49
Colliers view is that these sites are located in a good position on the industrial estate
and would provide additional land for expanding businesses, including local SMEs
seeking self-design and build schemes. The sites are likely to be developed in the next
ten years and are medium term development opportunities as existing space on the
estate is filled.
8.50
It is recommended that these sites are retained for employment use.
96
Moorfield Industrial Estate, Clayton-Le-Moors
8.51
This is a multi-use low grade industrial estate to the east of Clayton le Moors comprising
of industrial steel portal warehouses and other purpose built brick units, on a slight
slope. This site has B1 and B2 use for low grade manufacturing and recycling scrap
metal operators. There is good motorway access via motorway access via A678. There
is currently a large hard standing/waste management area that is been marketed by
Nolan Redshaw to Let. The majority of the units appear to be occupied.
8.52
Colliers view is that this site should be retained for employment use, however at the
current time there are more obvious sites that are likely to be redeveloped for
employment use. This site therefore represents a longer term development opportunity.
97
8.53
This site is made up of part brick portal steel frame units from c.2,500 sqft to 5,000 sqft.
The majority of the units are in a reasonable condition with some built in the last 10
years. There is a clear brownfield site that is most likely to appeal to SMEs for a selfdesign and build scheme. This site may have issues with contamination and possibly
flooding.
8.54
Colliers view is that this is a secondary employment location and unlikely to be
developed for employment use in the next 5 years. There are more readily available
sites in the Borough and as a result the site is considered to be a longer term
opportunity that this likely to be developed in the next 10-20 years.
8.55
98
8.56
This is a greenfield site with some hard standing. The site is isolated from the existing
industrial estate by the canal. A small bridge is in place but is unlikely to be sufficient as
the only site access.
8.57
Colliers view is that subject to improved site access the site could form part of the wider
development at the Whitebirk Strategic Site, known as Frontier Park. This site is not
included in the latest Frontier Park masterplan and services and road infrastructure will
be needed to be put in place to the site before it is developed. This site is therefore a
medium term opportunity and likely to be developed in the next 5 years for B2 or B8
use.
8.58
99
8.59
The site is currently allotments. The surrounding uses are residential and open land
with poor access. There are more suitable employment site for redevelopment in the
locality. This site should remain as allotments. Colliers view is that there is no need to
build employment in this poor location and the site should remain as allotments.
8.60
It is therefore recommended that this site is no longer protected for employment use.
100
Sites identified through the Call for Sites exercise
8.61
As part of the preparation of the Local Plan, Hyndburn Borough Council has conducted
a Call for Sites Exercise. This exercise, which concluded in July 2015, covered both
potential housing and employment sites, with the following being put forward by the
Council for consideration in this study.
Table 8.5:
Employment Sites identified through the Call for Sites Exercise
Turley
Reference
Council
Reference
Site Name
Site Area (Ha)
ACC25
CFS008
Charter Street, Accrington
2.79
ACC26
CFS011
Land Off Brookside Lane, Oswaldtwistle 2.40
CLM06
CFS016
Junction 7 Business Park
17.00
HUN01/01
CFS018
Land North of Altham Lane
3.19
HUN01/02
CFS019
Land South of Altham Lane
21.75
8.62
A potential change of use has been proposed on a number of these sites. In view of this,
it is necessary to consider the ongoing suitability and market attractiveness of these
sites for employment use in order to ensure that their redevelopment for alternative uses
would not prejudice economic activity in the Borough.
8.63
The results of this appraisal are presented in detail below.
8.64
This site is made up of a part brick steel frame industrial unit of 30,000 sqft with hard
standing yard area. The site is currently occupied by a steel stockholder and the unit
does appear to be a in a reasonable condition. The site access is particularly narrow
and the site is surrounded by residential dwellings. The current occupiers are unable to
expand if they wanted to as the site is constrained by a built up residential use on each
side.
8.65
Colliers view is that there are more suitable locations for this type of activity and the site
would be better suited for residential development in the medium term.
8.66
There would be justification for the deallocation of this site, subject to the current
occupier relocating to alternative premises in the Hyndburn area. It is recommended that
these proposals are considered through the preparation of the Site Allocations DPD.
101
Land off Brookside Lane, Oswaldtwistle
8.67
This site forms part of a large industrial estate with substantial four storey mill and
industrial buildings from different periods. The brick built mill is occupied by a number of
tenants. There are also some more modern industrial sheds built at different times over
last 20 years. To the east of mill building there is a large cleared site which is partly
used for open storage. There are several different level changes across the site. The
site is in an isolated industrial location and has relatively poor access due to HGV’s
having to go through residential areas.
8.68
Colliers view is that this site has historical contamination and would need to be
decontaminated at significant costs to redevelop the mill or demolish and clear the site.
It is considered that this site is unlikely to be developed unless the adjoining site (the
Former Chemical Works) is developed in conjunction with it in order to make the
redevelopment viable.
8.69
It is recommended that the merits of a mixed use allocation incorporating an element of
employment use, alongside residential, is explored further through the preparation of the
Site Allocations DPD.
8.70
Junction 7 Business Park is located directly off the northern spur leading to the M65 at
Junction 7. Originally developed in 1941 as a manufacturing complex for Bristol Aircraft,
its status began to change in the eighties when the primary function ceased and the
then owner General Electric occupied the site, primarily as a warehousing function. The
site was subsequently purchased by Goldtique Group.
8.71
As the estate was built in the 1940’s it has been difficult to continue to conform to
tenant’s requirements together with Health & Safety regulations.
8.72
It is understood that Goldtique and GE Capital previously secured planning for a mixed
use re-development of the former aircraft works at Clayton le Moors into Junction 7
Business Park. The development includes 28,000 sqm of employment and commercial
uses, a 120 bed hotel, PFS, a small element of retail, leisure uses, 200 homes, a 105
dwelling sheltered housing scheme and a 60 bed care home. It is now understood that
Argon properties are considering the site for mixed use including development for
residential use.
8.73
The current owners Industrious have put the site forward in the call for site exercise and
have requested the potential for non-employment uses, including residential, are
considered.
8.74
Colliers view is that the estate is one of the most important redevelopment employment
sites in the Hyndburn area and is in a good location for employment type uses. This
site, if redeveloped, has the potential to attract investment and relocation of businesses
to the Hyndburn area. It is considered that the site would be suitable for B1, B2 & B8
use, although it is likely to be developed for a mix uses, including residential, in order to
make redevelopment a more viable.
8.75
This is a medium term development opportunity and likely to be redeveloped in the next
5-10 years. It is therefore recommended that redevelopment for employment use should
102
continue to be encouraged, with alternative uses considered where this supports the
viability of the scheme.
Land North and South of Altham Lane
8.76
The land to the north is a cleared brownfield site on the former Huncoat power Station
site. The adjacent uses of the site are open space with a railway line to the north of the
site and the A56 to the east. The land to the south of Altham Lane is greenfield with
challenging topography to the north of the site. The adjacent uses of the site are the
former Huncoat Power Station and residential use. Both sites form part of the Huncoat
Strategic Employment site.
8.77
Colliers view is that the development for employment use is constrained by inadequate
access of major road links, and possible contamination issues. There is also greater
competition in the locality form more readily available sites for employment use. A great
deal of road infrastructure linking the site to the M62 or A56 will be needed in order for
these sites to be developed for employment use, however it is currently unclear how this
would be financed in the absence of upfront investment by the public sector.
8.78
It is considered that there are currently better located more readily available sites to be
developed for employment use. As a result these sites are more likely to be developed
for residential development in the next 5-10 years.
8.79
It is recommended that the capacity of these sites to accommodate a broader mix of
uses is explored further by the Council.
103
Scoring
8.80
The relative performance of each site when scored against the market attractiveness
criteria at Appendix 5 is presented in the table below.
Table 8.6:
Site Appraisal Scores
Employment
Use
Suitability
Score
Turley
Reference
Council Reference
Site Name
KW03
CS 2012 Whitebirk
45
ALT01/02
CS 2012 Altham
Business Park
Altham Business Park Extension
43
ALT01/01
Allocation L
Land at Altham Industrial Estate
41
CLM07
Allocation K
Whinney Hill Road
40
KW02
Allocation T
Whitebirk 5
37
HUN02
Allocation E
Land at Huncoat Industrial Estate
33
CLM06
CFS 016
33
CLM06/01
Allocation G
GEC Test Beds (Part of Junction 7)
33
GH11
Allocation N
32
CLM08
Allocation M
Land at Moorfield Industrial Estate
23
HUN01
CS 2012 Huncoat
23
HUN01/02
CFS 017
Land South of Altham Lane
23
HUN01/01
CFS 018
Land North of Altham Lane
21
ACC26
CFS 011
Land Off Brookside Lane, Oswaldtwistle
15
ACC30
CFS 008
13
GH12
Allocation W
12
104
Available land supply
8.81
A total of 72 existing employment areas and 11 allocations have been assessed by
Colliers. Potential future uses on 5 sites identified through the Call for Sites Exercise
have also been considered.
8.82
Within this overall supply a number of sites with development potential over the plan
period to 2033 have also been identified. These ranged from small infill sites within
established industrial estates, to larger sites on existing and emerging greenfield
allocations. A number of sites have been identified as being suitable for ongoing
employment related development, whilst other poorer quality sites have been identified
as being suitable for alternative non-employment related use.
8.83
In total 102.3 hectares of vacant land with development potential has been assessed.
This includes:
•
88.4 hectares (gross) of undeveloped employment land allocations; and
•
13.9 hectares (gross) of previously developed land within existing employment
areas.
8.84
A further 26.4 hectares of potential ‘opportunity land’ within existing employment areas
was also identified, although the majority of this land is not available for development
and has therefore not been included within the forward supply.
8.85
The assessment the supply has also identified that not all of the 102.3 hectares is
available to meet Hyndburn’s future employment needs over the period from 2013-2033.
Indeed, within this overall portfolio there are a number of sites which are considered to
be no longer suitable for employment purposes. Similarly, a number of sites have been
identified which due to site constraints and overall market attractiveness, have little
prospect of development.
8.86
It is therefore necessary to deduct these sites from the supply. Proposed deductions
include:
•
3 hectares of land at Nuttall Avenue, Great Harwood given that the site has little
market appeal for employment use;
•
13.9 hectares of previously developed land within existing employment areas
identified as being poor in terms of its ongoing suitability and market
attractiveness for employment use at the current time.
8.87
In addition, 12.8 hectares of land at the Whitebirk Strategic Site which has been
safeguarded to accommodate needs arising in neighbouring Blackburn with Darwen;
8.88
Whilst Brookside Road has some potential for employment development, it is likely that
this will need to be brought forward through a mixed use development. As such the
amount of land available for employment use is unknown at this stage and has not been
included within the overall forward supply.
105
8.89
Taking into account these deductions, the Borough has a gross supply of 72.6 hectares
of land.
8.90
It is understood a number of mixed use and non-employment use led proposals are
45
being considered on a number of allocated sites however for the purposes of the
assessment these sites have been assumed to be available.
8.91
As take-up of employment land is typically recorded on a plot by plot basis, which
equates to a net developable area, the available land supply needs to be measured on
the same basis. To reflect this, gross to net adjustment have been made on some sites,
taking into consideration the estimated proportion of land which may be lost to site
servicing, infrastructure and landscaping. Ratios applied range from 100% for vacant
site with road frontage to 75% where more extensive landscaping and infrastructure,
including access roads, may need to be provided.
8.92
A summary of the ratios and assumptions applied are provided below:
Gross to net adjustments
8.93
•
100% - Serviced plots within existing employment area with road frontage. No
infrastructure required to open up access to the site.
•
95% - Vacant site within or on edge of existing employment area. Infrastructure
(e.g. road) required to create serviced plots.
•
90% - Undeveloped allocation or extension to existing employment area. New
access required to create serviceable plots for development.
•
85% - Larger vacant standalone site requiring more extensive infrastructure
investment. (E.g. spur roads and landscaping).
•
75% - Vacant site or allocation to be developed for business park use with high
quality landscaping.
Taking these factors into account it can be concluded that the Borough currently has
around 63 hectares of land that is potentially suitable for B1, B2 and B8 employment
use over the period to 2033. A list of these sites is provided in the table below.
45
Sites where the Council are aware of a potential interest by landowners to bring the site forward sites for nonemployment uses have not been deducted from the land supply so as to not pre-empt or pre-determine the planning
application and decision making process.
106
Table 8.7:
Allocated Sites with Development Potential
Council Ref
Turley
Ref
Settlement Address
LP 1996 Allocation E HUN02 Huncoat
Site Area Net
(Ha)
(Ha)
Huncoat Industrial Estate,
Bolton Avenue, Huncoat
1.8
1.6
LP 1996 Allocation G CLM06/ Clayton-le- GEC Test Beds / Junction
01
Moors
7 Business Park
4.0
3.6
LP 1996 Allocation K CLM07
Clayton-le- Whinney Hill Road
Moors
2.8
2.4
LP 1996 Allocation L ALT01/
01
Altham
2.9
2.7
LP 1996 Allocation M CLM08
Clayton-le- Moorfield Industrial Estate
Moors
7.3
6.6
LP 1996 Allocation N GH11
Great
Harwood
Heys Lane, Great Harwood 1.4
1.3
LP 1996 Allocation T KW02
Knuzden /
Whitebirk
1.6
0.9
CS 2012 Altham
Business Park
Extension
ALT01/
02
Altham
Extension
2.0
1.8
CS 2012 Huncoat
Strategic
Employment Site
HUN01 Huncoat
28.5
24.2
CS 2012 Whitebirk
Strategic
Employment Site
KW03
Whitebirk Strategic Site
33.4
17.8
Total
88.4
62.8
Knuzden /
Whitebirk
Altham Industrial Estate
107
9. Supply Demand Balance and Policy
Recommendations
9.1
This section draws together the forecasts of future employment land needs to compare
actual levels of available land with anticipated requirements. This is be based on
estimates of land available across the Borough’s existing and allocated employment
sites set out in Section 8 in order to identify any need for more provision of employment
space, or surpluses of it, in both quantitative and qualitative terms.
Quantitative need
9.2
PPG states that local authorities should develop an idea of future economic needs
based on a range of data and forecasts of quantitative and qualitative need. In this
respect, planning for employment growth should avoid relying on single sources of data
or projections which tend to rely upon a number of different variables which are
inevitably subject to change.
9.3
Future employment land requirements have therefore been established using a range of
techniques, with the actual performance of Hyndburn’s economy and commercial
property market most likely lying somewhere between the labour demand (Adjusted
Scenario) and past trends projections. These approaches generate a requirement for
between 19 and 61.9 hectares of employment land over the period from 2013-2033,
which reduces to between 13.9 and 56.7 hectares when completions between 2013/14
and 2014/15 are taken into account.
9.4
Given the operation of the Hyndburn commercial property market this requirement is
almost exclusively for industrial and warehousing land. Indeed, based on all approaches
the Borough is only anticipated to require between 0.5 hectares, or around 3,000 sqm of
B1a/b floorspace, or 150 sqft per annum over the period to 2033.
9.5
As detailed in Section 8, the pipeline supply of employment space in the Borough
comprises approximately 63 hectares of land. This includes both standalone greenfield
allocations and a series of extensions to existing employment areas.
9.6
A broad comparison of estimated demand for B Use Class land against all currently
identified supply is shown in the table below.
Table 9.1:
Supply/demand balance 2013-2033
Labour Demand
(Adjusted Scenario)
Past Take Up
Total B Use Class
Land Requirement
Land Supply
Surplus(+)/
Shortfall(-)
13.9ha
63ha
+49.1
56.7ha
63ha
+6.3
Source: Turley
108
9.7
This shows that the Borough has a sufficient supply of land to accommodate future
economic development needs for B Class employment uses over the period from 20132033.
9.8
However, whilst the supply demand position is relatively balanced under the past take
up approach, planning on the basis of the residual 13.9 hectare requirement established
through the Labour Demand (Adjusted Scenario) would create surplus of 49.2 hectares
of employment land over the period to 2033.
9.9
Whilst it would usually be inappropriate to rely exclusively on the past take up approach,
in the case of Hyndburn there is a strong quantitative and qualitative case for planning
on the basis of a higher requirement.
9.10
Firstly, in quantitative terms, the Borough has historically witnessed continued take up of
employment land, even in the context of falling employment rates. Based on current
projections of labour demand under the Adjusted Scenario, there is also potential for job
growth across a range of industrial sectors at higher levels than historical levels, which
in turn has the potential to substantiate continued strong levels of take up.
9.11
Secondly, a number of existing sites are the subject of extant or emerging planning
applications which collectively have the potential to create over 100,000 sqm of
commercial floorspace over the next 5 years. Take up of this land on this scale in years
1 to 5 would outstrip forecast land requirements arising from Labour Demand (Adjusted
Scenario) by a considerable margin and provides further justification for the potential
use of past take up or blended approach when developing policy.
9.12
Thirdly, as has been demonstrated through the business survey and stakeholder
consultations there is a strong appetite growth amongst local developers and
businesses. Therefore, from a qualitative perspective, whilst there is a need to ensure
the available land supply is used efficiently, if insufficient land is allocated for future
employment yielding uses, then there is a risk that the supply of employment land may
become a constraint on growth of local businesses or the ability of the Borough to attract
new inward investment.
Delivery timescales
9.13
Another important consideration is the deliverability of the identified supply and ensuring
that there is sufficient land to accommodate demand in the early years of the plan period
when employment growth is forecast to be strongest.
9.14
The following table summarises the emerging land supply, identifying the quantum of
land potentially available to accommodate future requirements in the short, medium and
over the longer term.
109
Table 9.2:
Pipeline supply timescales for delivery
Anticipated Timescales for
46
delivery
Land Supply (Ha)
% of Total
Short Term (<5 years)
25.4
40%
Medium Term (5-10 years)
5.5
9%
Long Term (>10 years)
32.1
51%
63
100
Total
Source: Colliers and Turley Analysis
9.15
This analysis illustrates the balance of short, medium and longer terms sites and the
potential pressures which may be placed on the land supply at various points in the plan
period.
9.16
The table shows that 40% of the identified land supply, equivalent to approximately 25.4
hectares, is available and deliverable in the short term. The majority of this land relates
to the Whitebirk Strategic Site, which is now the subject of an approved outline planning
application, as well as other allocations at Huncoat Industrial Estate, Whinney Hill Road
and the Altham Business Park extension. These are very much considered to be the
better of the Borough’s existing allocations due to their location and fewer constraints.
9.17
In contrast the medium term supply position is much more constrained and reliant on a
smaller supply of sites, many of which were originally allocated in the 1996 Local Plan.
The longer term supply, which accounts for 51% of the Borough’s total supply, is also
heavily reliant on the Huncoat Strategic site, which as demonstrated through the study is
unlikely to come forward without significant upfront investment in infrastructure.
9.18
Whilst the removal of Huncoat would have a profound impact on the longer term forward
supply of employment land, the qualitative evidence presented through this report
suggests that this could be offset through new allocations, which subject to their location
would be met with strong levels of demand.
Recommendations
9.19
In terms of development land, in strictly quantitative terms, there is almost certainly
enough industrial land to accommodate demand, and potentially too much industrial
land to meet the forecast requirements projected using the Labour Demand approach.
9.20
However, whilst the Borough would appear to benefit from a healthy supply position, a
number of these sites are constrained or legacy sites; in other words sites that were
allocated through previous rounds of policy and have yet to be developed.
9.21
In view of this, it is considered that Hyndburn’s supply of employment land is not evenly
balanced in terms of overall quality, with too little good quality land available, and too
much constrained land, being relied upon to meet employment needs in the medium to
longer term. This is corroborated by the views of agents and developers who felt the
46
Based on property market advice provided by Colliers International in October 2015
110
market appeal of sites such as Huncoat was severely limited due to infrastructure and
access issues.
9.22
It is considered that such sites should not be relied upon in isolation and failing to
address the current imbalances in the supply may result in further losses of employment
or investment, as businesses choose to meet their needs outside of the Borough.
9.23
In order for Hyndburn to capture new investment and support the growth aspirations of
its existing businesses, there is a need to consider providing a more readily available
supply of unconstrained sites in accessible locations. This would improve the choice for
new investment and allow for some continued replacement of older obsolete sites and
premises with better quality provision. It would also provide the Council with the
flexibility to substitute and reallocate some existing employment allocations, which due
to the nature of their constraints are no longer suitable or viable for employment only
uses.
9.24
In terms of office, it is anticipated that most of the requirement will be accommodated
through the existing supply of floorspace, or alternatively through small scale office
development on allocated and existing employment sites. Given the likely levels of
demand it is not anticipated that new land allocations specifically for B1a/b use are
required.
Approach to identifying potential allocations
9.25
The results of the Colliers site assessment and consultations with agents suggest that
demand is likely to be strongest on sites within close proximity to the M65, a trend that
has already been demonstrated elsewhere in Pennine Lancashire through recent
development at Burnley Bridge.
9.26
However, occupiers will consider sites according to their own locational requirements,
which will be a combination factors such as the quality of local infrastructure (roads,
public transport and utilities), access to labour and the quality of the site and its
environment. Scale is also an important consideration and the site should be sufficiently
large to deliver development plots which appeal to a range of commercial occupiers, but
which are suited to accommodate larger units greater than 50,000 sqft.
9.27
Whilst Whitebirk is ideally placed to accommodate a substantial portion of the Borough’s
growth in the early years of the plan period, there are risks with relying solely on one
site. It is therefore recommended that consideration is given to allocating new sites
which are accessible to the M65. The attractiveness of established locations such as
Altham Industrial Estate is clearly evident with agents identifying it as a popular location
where units have sold and let out quickly. This has resulted in site now being mostly
built out with no availability. Agents stated that extensions to the site would be welcome
as it is now an established business park in great demand.
9.28
It is also recommended that any new allocation provides scope for future expansion. It is
therefore considered that additional allocations in the area to the south and east of
Altham Industrial estate would be best placed - in both locational and market terms - to
respond to such a requirement given their proximity to Junction 8 of the M65. However,
in order to avoid undermining the appeal of other sites – in particular the Whitebirk
111
Strategic site any future redevelopment of Junction 7 - a pragmatic approach to phasing
will be required.
Existing employment sites
9.29
Hyndburn is characteristic of many areas with a strong industrial heritage. Indeed, from
the assessment of existing employment areas in active use it is clear that many
businesses are reliant on an increasing ageing stock of employment floorspace to
support their business needs. Much of this floorspace has been converted from its
original use and in some cases is becoming increasingly obsolete for modern day
business practices. Given the industrial legacy of the area, many sites are also poorly
located within residential areas, and suffer from poor access and parking arrangements.
9.30
It is considered that many of the sites assessed would be suitable for alternative uses
including residential, retail, leisure and/or community uses. In some instances, however,
employment would be the only viable use for the site.
9.31
Whilst the analysis of existing employment areas suggests that there is scope to transfer
a number of existing employment areas to other uses it is recommended that any
transfer is selective. Criteria based policies are included within the Core Strategy to
manage the supply of existing employment areas and should continue to be used to
determine planning decisions where a change of use is proposed. Of importance will be
managing the supply of good, and to a lesser extent adequate sites, given that many
provide space for lower value SMEs and small businesses.
9.32
It will also be important for employment land policy to protect sites that support
employment across support less-skilled jobs, especially in and near the most deprived
areas. This may mean protecting some of these sites from transfer to other uses, and
where appropriate supporting their renewal and providing additional land for their
occupiers to relocate and expand.
9.33
The Council should therefore satisfy itself that such existing employment area sites are
in low demand and that ongoing employment use is no longer viable prior to their
release.
Monitoring
9.34
It will be imperative that the employment land position is monitored to ensure the
Council remains responsive should changes in the pattern of supply and demand occur
over the plan period. It is therefore recommended that the assessment of sites is kept
up-to-date as part of the Council’s monitoring report and should be updated yearly. It is
also prudent to make regular updates to the underlying demand evidence, to reflect any
changes in economic market conditions.
9.35
With this in mind, it is recommended that a comprehensive assessment of economic
development need is undertaken at least every five years. The PPG states that it should
only be necessary to carry out a full re-survey of the sites/broad locations when
development plans have to be reviewed or when other significant changes make this
necessary.
112
Appendix 1: Business and Employment
Survey Forms
Hyndburn Borough
Council
Business Survey 2015
Please contact Stuart Sambrook (01254 382695) or Darren Tweed (01254 380174) of Hyndburn Borough
Council with any queries in relation to this survey. Thank you.
Name of Company
Trading Name
(if different)
Main Address in
Hyndburn
Postcode
Telephone
Email
Website
Principal Contact*
Position*
If you are happy for Hyndburn Borough Council to share these Principal Contact and Position details with other relevant
organisations (e.g. Regenerate Pennine Lancashire, Job Centre Plus, Lancashire Enterprise Partnership) then please tick
this box
Principal Business
Activity
Year Company
Established*
Managing
Director*
Number of
Employees
Full-time (F/T)
Part-time (P/T)
Male*
113
☐
Female*
Total*
Business Sector
(Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC))
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation & Public Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
Services
Public Administration
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
Please indicate which of these
SIC groups your Company’s
primary business is most
closely related to
Other locations in
Hyndburn
(Address)
Telephone*
Total
Employees*
F/T
P/T
Total
Employees*
F/T
P/T
Associate
Companies located
in Hyndburn (Name
and Address)
Telephone*
Head Office
(Address)
Telephone*
Parent Company
(Name and Address)
Telephone*
Total Employees in Group*
114
Please respond to the final questions below excluding any associated / parent companies
Turnover of
Company
(Please tick)*
Percentage of
turnover exported
(Please tick)*
Up to £500K
£500K-£1m
£1m-£5m
£5m-£10m
> £10m
None
Up to 10%
10-25%
25-50%
Over 50%
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
Size of premises
Sq. Ft.
Sq. m.
Size of external
space
Sq. Ft.
Sq. m.
☐
☐
☐
☐
Thank you for your assistance
115
Hyndburn Borough
Council
Employment Land Survey
2015
Please contact Stuart Sambrook (01254 382695) or Darren Tweed (01254 380174) of
Hyndburn Borough Council with any queries in relation to this survey. Thank you.
1
Your Business Details
Name of company
Principal business
activity
Total employees
in Hyndburn
Total employees
in company
Head of Company
Title
2
Your Existing Premises in Hyndburn
a
Please give brief details of all your business locations in Hyndburn
Address / Location
Total
Floorspace
Own or
lease?
Length of
occupatio
n
Are you satisfied
with these premises?
m
2
Yes
m
2
Yes
m
2
Yes
m
2
Yes
m
2
Yes
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
No
No
No
No
No
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
If No, please indicate below why any specific premises fail to meet your operational requirements,
identifying any particular constraints that affect your day-day business ops.
116
b
Please rank the following factors in terms of their influence on your choice of current business
location (rank the most important as 1, the second most important 2, and so on)
Property / rental values
Access to skills
Access to markets / supply
chain
Motorway access
Attractiveness/environment of location
Other
(please specify):
3
Your Expansion Plans
a
Are you likely to expand your Hyndburn operations in the next five years?
Yes
☐
No
☐
If No, please provide a brief reason then move on to
part 4
Reason:
b
How many new jobs do you expect to create? c
Can this expansion take place within your existing premises?
Yes
d
No
☐
If Yes, please go to Section 4
How is your expansion most likely to be achieved (please tick one only)
☐
☐
☐
e
f
☐
jobs
By building an extension to your existing
premises
By purchasing or leasing new premises
By constructing new premises (off site) m
2
2
m
2
m
Are you likely to retain your existing premises?
Yes
☐
No
☐
Where is any future expansion/relocation most likely to take place? (please tick one
only)
(i) Within Hyndburn
Accrington
Clayton-leMoors
Great Harwood
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐
Baxenden
Church
Huncoat
(ii) Outside Hyndburn
Elsewhere in East Lancashire
Elsewhere in Lancashire
☐
☐
☐
Elsewhere in North West
England
117
☐
☐
Oswaldtwistle
Other ☐
Rishton
☐
Other
g
What type of business location are you seeking? (please tick one only)
☐
☐
☐
☐
h
Modern business park (mixed-use)
Established industrial estate
Older employment area
Other ☐
☐
☐
Modern office park
Warehouse / distribution park
Business incubator / SME cluster
Which of the following factors will most influence your final decision? (please tick one
only)
☐
☐
☐
☐
Attractiveness of location
Cost of land or premises
Availability of grant assistance
Other ☐
☐
☐
Access to skilled labour
Access to motorway
Access by public transport
i
Please use the space below for any additional comments you may wish to make
4
The End … thank you for your cooperation
Name:
Position:
Date:
118
Appendix 2: SIC codes to use class
assumptions
Sector
B1a/b
B1c/B2
B8
Non B Class
A : Agriculture, forestry and fishing
0%
0%
0%
100%
B : Mining and quarrying
0%
0%
0%
100%
C : Manufacturing
0%
90%
10%
0%
D : Electricity, gas, steam and air
conditioning supply
0%
0%
0%
100%
E : Water supply; sewerage, waste
management and remediation activities
0%
0%
0%
100%
F : Construction
0%
0%
5%
95%
G : Wholesale and retail trade; repair of
motor vehicles and motorcycles
0%
0%
90%
10%
H : Transportation and storage
0%
0%
75%
25%
I : Accommodation and food service activities
0%
0%
0%
100%
J : Information and communication
80%
0%
0%
20%
K : Financial and insurance activities
80%
0%
0%
20%
L : Real estate activities
80%
0%
0%
20%
M : Professional, scientific and technical
activities
90%
0%
0%
10%
N : Administrative and support service
activities
80%
0%
0%
20%
O : Public administration and defence;
compulsory social security
10%
0%
0%
90%
P : Education
0%
0%
0%
100%
Q : Human health and social work activities
0%
0%
0%
100%
R : Arts, entertainment and recreation
0%
0%
0%
100%
S : Other service activities
0%
0%
0%
100%
119
Appendix 3: Site Appraisal Proformas
Please refer to separate Appendix
Appendix 4: Existing Employment Area
Appraisal
Appendix 5: Site Scoring Matrix
Turley
1 New York Street
Manchester
M1 4HD
T 0161 233 7676

Hyndburn Borough Council Employment Land Study Final Report

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