Jianchu Xu Sept1-Xu_WWW_2014

Presentation from the
2014 World Water Week in Stockholm
www.worldwaterweek.org
©The Author(s), all rights reserved
www.siwi.org
Last Chance for Water in the Asian Highlands:
Linking Top Down and Bottom-up Knowledge
Presented at the Water Week
3rd September 2014, Stockholm
Jianchu Xu, PhD
Principle Scientist and Coordinator, ICRAF East & Central Asia
Director, Center for Mountain Ecosystem Studies (CMES)
Professor, Kunming Institute of Botany, CAS
Outline of Presentation
• The background
• The case studies
• The solutions
Highland-Lowland Linkage in Asia
Predicted Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2000 - 2050
Average 1.6 deg to 2.5 deg C by 2050
DAMS +
What Impact on Nature?
Less Ecosystem Function
Means
Cascading effects in
< water storage
< soil nutrients
< carbon storage
< less productive
What Impacts on PEOPLE?
more RISK? less RISK?
For local and downstream?
Study sites
PAKISTAN
Poverty ---vulnerability
Shifts in cropping patterns
Water tenure vague
Conflicts --mediation
Flash floods landslides
Men migrating away
NEPAL
Drought primary
<surface water
Pests>>>use more chemicals
Impacts on farming
Seeking outside cash jobs
CHINA
Villagers:
Temperatures rising
Precipitation down
Snow line rising
Glaciers retreating
Contributing factors of Livelihood Vulnerability Index
Socio-demographic
profile
1
0,9
Natural disaters and
climate variablility
Livelihood
strategies
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
Water
Social networking
0,1
0
Food
Knoweldge and skill
Health
Finance
LVI index
Lijiang (n=433)
Lijiang 0.409
Melamchi (n=365) Melamchi 0.505
Chitral (n=381)
Chitral 0.443
1 = MOST VULNERABLE
0 = LEAST VULNREABLE
Contributing factors of Livelihood Effect Index
Human capital
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
Physical capital
0,4
Natural Capital
0,3
0,2
Financial capital
Social capital
LEI index
Lijiang (n=433)
0.398
Melamchi (n=365)
0.503
Chitral (n=381)
0.446
1 = MOST EFFECT
0 = LOW EFFECT
Farmers Need to Adapt
 Too much water and too little
water from upstream (change)
 local planting patterns (timing)
 markets (switching to
commercial crops)
 government support (statefunded water storage)
What can be done NOW
to build adaptive capacity
for climate and socioeconomic change?
Hybrid Knowledge
NOT JUST LOCAL ANYMORE
Co-produced




Local/Traditional
Market-oriented
Government support
Changed water-food-energy nexus
Xu JC, Grumbine RE, 2014. Integrating local hybrid knowledge and state support for
climate change adaptation in the Asian highlands. Climate Change 124: 93-104
Solutions
1. Integrate science-based
conservation with local hybrid
knowledge
 Ecosystem functions
 Nature conservation
 Human livelihoods
LINKED TOGETHER
Climate-Smart Landscapes
Optimize climate mitigation and adaptation for
agricultural lands linked to habitat conservation plans
 Produce more food
 Sequestrate more carbon
 Use less/little water
2. COORDINATED PLANNING
COORDINATION
Not just a good IDEA-----Supported by good INFORMATION
Shared benefits from WATER RESOURCES
The Best PLANNING
Evaluates tradeoffs between conservation of
nature and local needs
Prioritizes costs and benefits (at watershed and
river basin level)
National and NGO plans connected better to
local implementation realities
INVOLVES LOCAL PEOPLE
3. Recognize the role of governance
Coordination of science with local hybrid
knowledge is political ----Transboundary water resource management is
also political -----
better governance
Water decision is a political decision
FUTURE IS NOW
“actions taken today will
change Earth in 20 years”
--IPCC 2014
The Asian highlands Project is
financially supported by IDRC
Thank you!
Contact: Jianchu Xu
Principle scientist and Regional Coordinator, East and Central Asia
Email: [email protected]