CEO Track - Motilal Oswal

Transcription

8th Annual Global Investor Conference
Participating Companies
Company
Page
ACC ..................................................................................... 22
AIA Engineering ............................................................... 180
Ambuja Cements ............................................................... 24
Ashok Leyland ................................................................... 26
Au Financiers .................................................................. 180
Axis Bank ........................................................................... 28
Bajaj Auto .......................................................................... 30
Bajaj Electricals .............................................................. 181
Bajaj Finance .................................................................. 172
Bajaj FinSer ..................................................................... 173
Bharat Petroleum Corporation ......................................... 32
Bharti Airtel ....................................................................... 34
Cairn India ........................................................................ 36
CESC ................................................................................... 38
Container Corporation of India ..................................... 174
DB Corp .............................................................................. 40
Dewan Housing Finance ................................................... 42
Dish TV ............................................................................... 44
DLF ..................................................................................... 46
Emami ................................................................................ 48
Fort Point Automotive ..................................................... 181
GAIL India .......................................................................... 50
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals .................................. 52
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals .............................................. 54
Godrej Consumer Products ............................................... 56
Grasim Industries ............................................................. 58
HDFC .................................................................................. 60
HDFC Bank ......................................................................... 62
Hero MotorCorp ................................................................ 64
Hindalco Industries .......................................................... 66
Hindustan Unilever ........................................................... 68
HPCL ................................................................................... 70
HT Media ........................................................................... 72
ICICI Bank .......................................................................... 74
ICRA .................................................................................. 175
Idea Cellular ..................................................................... 76
IDFC .................................................................................... 78
Indusind Bank ................................................................... 80
Info Edge (India) ................................................................ 82
Infosys ............................................................................... 84
ING Vysya Bank ................................................................. 86
IPCA Laboratories ............................................................. 88
ITC ...................................................................................... 90
Jindal Steel & Power ......................................................... 92
JP Associates ..................................................................... 94
August 27 - 31, 2012
Company
Page
JSW Energy ........................................................................ 96
JSW Steel ........................................................................... 98
Kotak Mahindra Bank ..................................................... 100
Larsen & Toubro .............................................................. 102
LIC Housing Finance ....................................................... 104
Lupin ................................................................................ 106
Mahindra & Mahindra ................................................... 108
Mahindra Finance .......................................................... 110
Manappuram Finance .................................................... 176
Marico ............................................................................. 112
Maruti Suzuki .................................................................. 114
McLeod Russel ................................................................ 116
MCX .................................................................................. 118
Motherson Sumi Systems ................................................ 120
Muthoot Finance ............................................................. 177
NTPC ................................................................................. 122
Oil India .......................................................................... 124
ONGC ............................................................................... 126
Phoenix Mills .................................................................. 128
Pidilite Industries ........................................................... 130
Power Grid ...................................................................... 132
Radico Khaitan ................................................................ 178
Raymonds ........................................................................ 179
Reliance Communications .............................................. 134
Reliance Industries ......................................................... 136
Reliance Infrastructure ................................................... 138
Rural Electric Corporation ............................................. 140
Shoppers Stop ................................................................. 142
Shriram Transport Finance ............................................ 144
Sidhivinayak Logistics .................................................... 182
Simplex Infrastructure .................................................... 146
State Bank of India .......................................................... 148
Sun Pharmaceuticals ...................................................... 150
Tata Consultancy Services .............................................. 152
Tata Motors ..................................................................... 154
Tata Steel ......................................................................... 156
Titan Industries ............................................................... 158
Ultratech Cement ............................................................. 160
Union Bank of India ........................................................ 162
Unitech Automobile ........................................................ 182
Voltas ............................................................................... 164
Wipro ............................................................................... 166
Yes Bank ........................................................................... 168
Zee Entertainment Enterprises ........................................ 170
2
Welcome to the Conference!
Dear Guest,
We at Motilal Oswal are pleased to welcome you to the 8th Annual Global Investor Conference
from August 27-29, 2012 in Mumbai.
The last 12 months have been eventful ... as always! Even as the world is finding it tough to put
growth back on track, India has its own set of challenges. Growth parameters are hitting new
lows; RBI has paused monetary easing on fears of inflation, and the much-awaited government
policy remains in limbo. All of this took a toll on the rupee, down 20% over the last one year.
Despite these headwinds, Indian equity market is among the top performers of 2012, as foreign
investors pumped in another USD11b into equities, CY12 YTD. On corporate earnings, June
quarter PAT grew just 11%%, and expectations for full year remain muted (FY13 Sensex EPS to
grow 8%). But amidst "going nowhere markets", several stocks are at their life-time highs,
indicating the strength of bottom-up investing. Unlevered balance sheets seem to be the flavor
of this cycle, thanks to persistently high interest rates. Indian equity valuations are at longterm averages, but resumption of growth cycle will remain a key trigger for a fresh upmove.
Re-shaping India! We believe the theme remains very relevant for this year too, and for quite
some time to come! Indian politics is re-shaping – not only are regional parties rising, we now
even have civil society entering the fray. Indian business is re-shaping – a no-frills airline is
today number one! Indian entertainment is re-shaping (a telly storyteller is scripting box office
successes), and so is Indian sports (a mother of two from east India wins an Olympics medal!)
And Indian scientists are planning Mission Mars! We dedicate our 2012 Conference to this
re-shaping – slowly, silently, but surely, and sometimes dramatically!
Over the next 3 days, 100 leading Indian companies will stand testimony to this re-shaping.
Our conference key highlight, CEO Track, will have 10 top-notch CEOs present their success
story, their growth opportunities, and their vision. We have several thematic presentations by
eminent speakers covering a range of issues — from political colors to grassroot education
and even power of nutrition! We have two intriguing panel discussions: (1) Navigating through
business cycles, and (2) 25 years of Wealth Creation.
As a special thematic session, we have scheduled 2 women who have had a decade of
extraordinary achievements and have done India proud in the last 12 months.
2012 also marks the Silver Jubilee for Motilal Oswal. To celebrate this, and also commemorate
100 years of Indian cinema, we have a set up unique evening on Monday, August 27, featuring
a dazzling Bollywood performance by Terence Lewis and his dance troupe.
We hope this Conference leaves you with several incisive insights, winning themes, greater
conviction, and the best investment ideas. We welcome you once again, and hope you have a
very productive and enjoyable week.
Navin Agarwal
Director & CEO – Institutional Equities
Rajat Rajgarhia
Director – Research
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
August 27 - 31, 2012
1
CEO Track (Monday, August 27)
Time
09:30-09:40
Session and Speaker(s)
Introduction and Welcome Address
Mr Motilal Oswal, CMD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Mr Raamdeo Agrawal, Joint MD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
09:45-10:25
Thematic Presentation
Vision Of The Indian Financial Sector
Mr Deepak Parekh, Chairman, HDFC
10:45-11:25
CEO Track: Larsen & Toubro
Mr K Venkatramanan, CEO & Managing Director
11:30-12:10
CEO Track: Bharti Airtel
Mr Akhil Gupta, Deputy Group CEO & Managing Director
12:15-12:55
CEO Track: ONGC
Mr S Vasudeva, Chairman & Managing Director
13:00-13:55
Luncheon Panel Discussion
25 Years of Wealth Creation
Mr Akash Prakash, CEO, Amansa Capital
 Mr Motilal Oswal, CMD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
 Mr Raamdeo Agrawal, Joint MD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

14:00-14:40
Financial Health Of India Inc
Ms Roopa Kudva, Standard & Poor's, Region Head, South Asia
14:45-15:25
Power Of Nutrition: Bring Transformational Changes In Life
Ms Pooja Makhija, Nutritionist
15:45-16:25
CEO Track: Idea Cellular
Mr Himanshu Kapania, Managing Director
16:30-17:10
United Colors Of Indian Politics
Mr Prabhu Chawla, Editorial Director, The New Indian Express
17:15 onwards
Motilal Oswal Silver Jubilee Celebrations, a unique evening featuring Celebrating Bollywood: A dazzling dance performance by Terence Lewis & his troupe
 The Climax: Enter the world of heady cocktails and exquisite global cuisine

August 27 - 31, 2012
2
CEO Track (Tuesday, August 28)
Time
09:45-10:25
Session and Speaker(s)
CEO Track: State Bank of India
Mr Pratip Chaudhuri, Chairman
10:45-11:25
CEO Track: Titan Industries
Mr Bhaskar Bhat, Managing Director
11:30-12:10
CEO Track: Infosys
Mr S D Shibulal, CEO & Managing Director
12:15-12:55
CEO Track: ICICI Bank
Ms Chanda Kochar, CEO & Managing Director
13:00-13:55
Luncheon Panel Discussion
Navigating Through Business Cycles
Mr Glenn Saldanha, Glenmark Pharma, CMD
 Mr Sanjiv Bajaj, Bajaj Finserv, MD
 Mr Vivek Chaand Sehgal, Motherson Sumi Group, Founder Chairman
 Mr B Nagesh, Shoppers Stop, Vice-Chairman

14:00-14:40
14:45-15:25
CEO Track: Zee Entertainment Enterprises
Mr Punit Goenka, Managing Director & CEO
Indian Education: Super 30 – Revolutionizing Education at the Grassroots
Prof Anand Kumar, Leading Educationist & Social Entrepreneur
15:45-16:25
CEO Track: ACC
Mr Kuldip Kaura, CEO & Managing Director
16:30-17:10
Special Presentation
Making India A World Champion – Lessons from my journey
Ms Mary Kom, World & Olympic Boxing Supermom
17:15-17:55
Special Presentation
Re-shaping Entertainment – Whether small screen or big!
Ms Ekta Kapoor, Soap Queen & Top Bollywood Producer
17:55-18:00
Vote of Thanks
Mr Navin Agarwal, Director & CEO - Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services
August 27 - 31, 2012
3
CEO Track
CEO Track Speaker Profiles
India's top CEOs and Experts
August 27 - 31, 2012
4
CEO Track Speakers (in order of appearance)
Mr Deepak Parekh
Chairman
HDFC
"Vision Of The Indian Financial Sector"
Thematic
Presentation
Date: Monday, August 27
Time: 09:45 - 10:25
Mr Deepak Parekh is the Chairman of HDFC, India's premier housing finance company. Mr
Parekh's business acumen and farsightedness has not only made HDFC the leader in Mortgages,
but has also transformed it into India's leading financial services conglomerate, with presence
in Banking, Asset Management, Insurance, Real Estate Venture Fund and Education Loans.
Besides HDFC Group companies, Mr Parekh is on the board of several leading companies across
diverse sectors. Mr Parekh is often dubbed as the government's unofficial crisis consultant. Be
it his role as Special Director on the Satyam Board in 2009 to revive the company or the crucial
role played by him during the UTI mess in the late '90s, Mr Parekh has shared his ideas and
experience to formulate reform policies across sectors. He is an active member of various highpowered Economic Groups, government-appointed Advisory Committees and Task Forces.
Mr Parekh was awarded the Padma Bhushan in 2006. The Republic of France conferred on him
the honor, "Knight in the Order of the Legion of Honor" in 2010. In 2010, he became the first
international recipient of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales'
Outstanding Achievement Award.
Mr Krishnamurthi Venkataramanan
CEO & Managing Director
Larsen & Toubro
Time: 10:45 - 11:25
CEO Track
Mr K Venkataramanan is the CEO and Managing Director of L&T. A graduate in Chemical
Engineering from IIT, Delhi, he joined L&T in 1969. He was elevated to the Board of Directors in
May 1999, and he assumed his current role in April 2012. He is credited with helping in the
transformation of L&T from a fabrication-driven EPC contractor to a technology-led player.
Mr Venkataramanan is a Distinguished Alumni Awardee of IIT Delhi in 2005. He is the first Asian
to be appointed Chairman of the Board of Directors of the 'Engineering & Construction Risk
Institute, Inc.', USA for a two year term ended in May 2010. He is an Honorary Fellow of the
Institute of Chemical Engineers (IChemE), UK. He is also a Fellow of the Indian Institute of
Chemical Engineers, and currently the Chairman of the Capital Goods Committee of FICCI.
Mr Venkataramanan's accolades include the 'Davidson Frame Award' conferred by IPMA,
Switzerland, for strengthening the Project Management Profession - 2002. He was honored with
'Chemtech - Business Leader of the Year' award for Plant & Machinery - 2005, and the 'Lala
Shriram Award for Leadership in Chemical Industry' - 2006. He has been conferred an Honorary
Doctorate in Project Management by the University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, Dehradun.
August 27 - 31, 2012
5
Mr Akhil Gupta
Deputy Group CEO & Managing Director
Bharti Enterprises
Time: 11:30 - 12:10
CEO Track
Mr Akhil Gupta is the Deputy Group CEO and Managing Director of Bharti Enterprises and a
Director of Bharti Airtel. He has been closely involved from the very beginning in the growth of
Bharti in the telecommunication services sector. He has also been responsible for conceptualizing
and implementing the separation of passive mobile infrastructure and forming Indus Towers, a
JV with Vodafone and Idea, which has become the largest tower company in the world.
Mr Gupta is also the Chairman of Tower and Infrastructure Providers Association (TAIPA). He
represents the Indian Telecom Industry and Bharti regularly at various forums. He was awarded
'CEO of the Year' at the National Telecom Awards 2012. He was also honored for 'Outstanding
Contribution to the Telecom Sector' by the leading telecom magazine, tele.net.
A Chartered Accountant, Mr Gupta has also completed an "Advanced Management Program" at
the Harvard Business School. He has been inducted to the CFO India - 'Hall of Fame' in recognition
of his contribution to the world of finance. In 2010, he was awarded the Asia Corporate Dealmaker
Award at the Asia-Pacific M&A ATLAS Awards in recognition of his leadership in executing Bharti
Airtel's acquisition of Zain Group's mobile operations in Africa.
Mr Sudhir Vasudeva
Chairman & Managing Director
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
Time: 12:15 - 12:55
CEO Track
Mr Sudhir Vasudeva is the Chairman and Managing Director of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
(ONGC), the most valuable Maharatna public sector unit (PSU) of India. He is also the Chairman
of ONGC Videsh (OVL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) and five other ONGC
Group Companies - ONGC Petro-additions, ONGC Mangalore Petrochemicals, Mangalore SEZ,
ONGC Tripura Power Company and ONGC Mittal Energy.
Mr Vasudeva is a Gold Medalist Chemical Engineer with Advanced Diploma in Management.
Under his stewardship, ONGC has registered its highest-ever profit, become the highest-ever
dividend paying company in India, and often retains the Numero Uno position in terms of
market capitalization. His focus on Investor Relationship has ranked ONGC Number-2 in
Institutional Investors' Best IR Companies List of 2012 in the Oil & Gas domain across Asia.
A firm believer in transparency and ethical business practices, Mr Vasudeva is the President of
Global Compact Network, India. He also happens to be the first business leader from Indian
PSUs to become a Member of the Board of the United Nations Global Compact.
August 27 - 31, 2012
6
Ms Roopa Kudva
Region Head, South Asia
Standard & Poor's
"Financial Health Of India Inc"
Thematic
Presentation
Time: 14:00 - 14:40
Ms Roopa Kudva is the Region Head, South Asia of Standard & Poor's, a global analytical
company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. She is also the MD
and CEO of CRISIL, S&P's Indian subsidiary. During her tenure as CEO, CRISIL's profits have more
than doubled, its customer-base has grown from 1,000 to 30,000, and its reach has expanded
from 9 Indian cities to 150, while its international operations now cover 30 countries.
Ms Kudva holds a Degree in Statistics, and a Post Graduate Diploma in Management from the
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. She joined CRISIL in 1992, and has more than two
decades of credit-related experience across sectors, including a secondment to Standard &
Poor's, Paris, as Director, Financial Institutions Ratings. She assumed her current role in 2007.
Ms Kudva regularly features in lists of the most powerful women in Indian business. She is a
member of several policy-level committees relating to the Indian financial system, including
committees of the Securities and Exchange Board of India and the Reserve Bank of India. She is
also a member of the Executive Council of NASSCOM. Ms Kudva has received the Distinguished
Alumnus Award from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad.
Ms Pooja Makhija
Nutritionist
"Power Of Nutrition: Bring
Transformational Changes In Life"
Thematic
Presentation
Time: 14:45 - 15:25
Ms Pooja Makhija is one of India's leading experts on nutrition and has counseled over 15,000
clients. She runs her own wellbeing clinic, Nourish, in Mumbai. She teaches her clients how to
eat right, keep fit and maintain high energy levels, enabling them to deal with the rigors of life.
She believes that understanding the importance of food can bring about huge, transformational
changes in people's lives. She is known for her no-nonsense diet plans.
Her prescription for healthy weight loss is: Eat within the first hour of rising. Eat four main
meals a day and a small snack every two hours in between. Exercise after a small light snack.
Eat main meals after the workout. Hydrate yourself well - one glass of water every hour. Restrict
daily oil consumption to 3-4 tablespoons a day. Avoid refined sugar in beverages. Stay away
from artificial sweetener, too. Say no fruits juices, smoothies or milkshakes. Eat the fruits
instead. Healthy eating is a lifestyle, not a "diet". Imbibe it.
Ms Makhija was the official diet counselor at Ms Sushmita Sen`s beauty pageant, I Am She
2010. Among her celebrity clients are Ms Vidya Balan, Ms Sonam Kapoor and Ms Raveena
Tandon. She recently launched her book, 'Eat. Delete. - The Anti Quick Fix Approach'.
August 27 - 31, 2012
7
Mr Himanshu Kapania
Managing Director
Idea Cellular
Time: 15:45 - 16:25
CEO Track
Mr Himanshu Kapania is the Managing Director of Idea Cellular, a pan-India mobile operator
with revenue of USD4b and over 110m subscribers. He is credited with strengthening Idea's
dominance in Maharashtra & Goa, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh, and Kerala, and launching
Idea services in Mumbai, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Chennai while expanding brand presence
in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Under his leadership, Idea has grown in South and West India.
Mr Kapania has had two separate stints with Idea Cellular (erstwhile Birla AT&T). In his first
stint, he joined the company in 1997 as General Manager, Operations - South Maharashtra and
then moved on as COO for Gujarat (1998-2000) and as COO for Delhi (2000-2003). Subsequently,
he worked with Reliance Infocomm as CEO - North India. In September 2006, Mr Kapania returned
to Idea as COO and in 2008, was promoted as Director - Operations. He was appointed Managing
Director in April 2011.
Besides Telecom, Mr Kapania has rich experience in Automobiles, Consumer Durables and
Office Automation industries. He is a BE (Electricals & Electronics Engineering) from BIT Mesra
(1979-83) and a Post Graduate from the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore (1988-90).
Mr Prabhu Chawla
Editorial Director
The New Indian Express Group
"United Colors Of Indian Politics"
Thematic
Presentation
Time: 16:30 - 17:10
Mr Prabhu Chawla is Editorial Director of The New Indian Express Group and hosts 'Teekhi
Baat', a talk show on IBN7. He is one of the most authoritative and credible voices in print as
well as the electronic media in India. In his 40 years as Reporter and Editor, he has extensively
covered events that have changed India's political course and the people who engineered them.
Mr Chawla began his career as an Economics Lecturer at Delhi University before going on to
become one of India's best-known journalists. From 1991 to 1994, he was Editor of Indian
Express, post which he was Editor-in-Chief and CEO of Financial Express from 1994 to 1996.
Between 1996 and 2011, he was Editor of India Today and Editorial Director of the India Today
Group of Publications. During that period, he launched the magazine's regional editions (Hindi,
Tamil, Telugu and Malayalam) and hosted the weekly talk show 'Seedhi Baat' on Aaj Tak.
Among the recent awards and accolades he has received are: the Indian Television Academy
Award for Best News and Current Affairs Anchor for 2009 for 'Seedhi Baat', the Indian Television
Academy Award for Best Talk Show Host for 2008, and the Sansui Television Best TV Anchor
Award for 2008. Mr Chawla is a Padma Bhushan recipient.
August 27 - 31, 2012
8
Mr Pratip Chaudhuri
Chairman
State Bank of India
Date: Tuesday, August 28
Time: 09:45 - 10:25
CEO Track
Mr Pratip Chaudhuri is the Chairman of State Bank of India, the only Indian bank to feature in
the Fortune Global 500 list. In this role, he is not only the Chief Executive of India's largest
commercial bank, but also the head of the entire State Bank Group including 5 associate banks
and 22 subsidiaries - 8 of which are overseas entities.
Mr Chaudhuri holds a post graduate degree in Business Administration with specialization in
Finance. He joined this 205-year old institution as a Probationary Officer in the year 1974.
During his tenure of 37 years in State Bank of India, Mr Chaudhuri has held a number of
important positions, including those of Chief General Manager (Foreign Offices), Chief General
Manager of Chennai Circle and General Manager (Mid Corporate Group).
Mr Chaudhuri assumed Chairmanship of State Bank of India in April 2011. Immediately prior to
taking over as Chairman, he was Deputy Managing Director in charge of the International
Banking Group of the Bank. He was also the Managing Director of State Bank of Saurashtra, and
piloted its merger with State Bank of India.
Mr Bhaskar Bhat
Managing Director
Titan Industries
Time: 10:45 - 11:25
CEO Track
Mr Bhaskar Bhat is the Managing Director of Titan Industries. He began his career as a
Management Trainee at Godrej & Boyce in 1978. After five years at Godrej, he joined the Tata
Watch Project, which is now Titan Industries. He assumed his current role in April 2002.
Mr Bhat is a BTech (Mechanical Engineering) from IIT Madras (1976) and has completed his
Post Graduate Diploma in Management from IIM Ahmedabad (1978). Most of his working
experience has been in Sales & Marketing. At Titan, he has handled Sales & Marketing, Human
Resources, International Business and General Management. He is also a Director in Virgin
Mobile India Limited, a joint venture of Tata Teleservices and Virgin Group, UK.
Mr Bhat received the Distinguished Alumnus Award in IIT Madras in 2008. He was conferred the
Qimpro Gold Standard Award for Business in February 2010. He won the Most Admired Retail
Professional of the Year at the India Retail Forum 2011 and received the Distinguished Alumnus
Award in IIM Ahmedabad in November 2011. Mr Bhat was ranked as the 4th CEO in a survey
conducted by the Business Today, INSEAD and Harvard Business Review.
August 27 - 31, 2012
9
Mr SD Shibulal
Co-Founder and CEO & Managing Director
Infosys
Time: 11:30 - 12:10
CEO Track
Mr SD Shibulal is the Co-Founder and the CEO and Managing Director of Infosys. Earlier, he has
held a number of senior leadership roles in the company. Prior to becoming CEO, he served as
COO between June 2007 and August 2011.
He has been instrumental in the development of Infosys' Global Delivery Model, which helped
set the stage for its evolution into a leading multinational Business Consulting and IT Services
provider. As CEO, Mr Shibulal is focused on strengthening strategic partnerships with clients,
increasing client relevance and evolving the business model towards achieving Infosys'
aspirations of becoming a next generation Global Consulting and IT Services corporation.
Mr Shibulal holds an MS degree in Computer Science from Boston University and a Master's
degree in Physics from the University of Kerala. He is a member of the Board of Trustees, the
International Advisory Board and the Metropolitan College Dean's Advisory Board of Boston
University. He is also a member of the International Board of Foundation, Globethics.net, the
Seoul International Business Advisory Council (SIBAC), and the Global Corporate Governance
Forum's Private Sector Advisory Group.
Ms Chanda Kochhar
Managing Director & CEO
ICICI Bank
Time: 12:15 - 12:55
CEO Track
Ms Chanda Kochhar is the Managing Director and CEO of ICICI Bank, India's largest private
sector bank. She is recognized for her role in shaping Retail Banking in India, for her leadership
of the ICICI Group, and for her contributions to various forums in India and globally.
Ms Kochhar began her career with the erstwhile ICICI Limited in 1984 and was instrumental in
establishing ICICI Bank during the 1990s. Ms Kochhar has held various responsible positions
in the Group. Some of these include: Head of the Infrastructure Finance and Corporate Banking
business in ICICI Limited, Head of ICICI Bank's Corporate and International Banking businesses,
and Joint Managing Director and CFO of ICICI Bank. She assumed her current role in 2009.
Ms Kochhar is a member of various high-powered Economic Groups, government-appointed
Advisory Committees and Task Forces. She was conferred with the Padma Bhushan in 2011. In
2012, she has been named amongst the nine Indian women in the Forbes' inaugural "Asia Power
Businesswomen" list, ranked fifth in the list of the "Most Powerful CEOs" in India by The Economic
Times and first in the list of "Top Women CEOs" in the country, and conferred with CNBC Asia's
India Business Leader of the year award and CSR award.
August 27 - 31, 2012
10
Mr Punit Goenka
Managing Director & CEO
Zee Entertainment Enterprises
Time: 14:00 - 14:40
CEO Track
Mr Punit Goenka is Managing Director and CEO of Zee Entertainment Enterprises (ZEE). His
strong work ethics and hands-on approach have helped steer the ZEE Empire to new frontiers of
success. Under his leadership, Zee TV has emerged a leader among General Entertainment
Channels in India. He is now working towards strengthening ZEE's reach internationally.
Mr Goenka has grown up the ranks, handling various responsibilities across the Essel
conglomerate for over 15 years. He began his career with Zee TV in 1995 as Head of the Music
division and went on to shoulder additional responsibilities across group companies. In 2004,
he took charge as the Business Head of Zee TV. He was promoted to Network Operating Officer in
2005 and was made responsible for the Programming, Operations, Administration and HR
functions of all of ZEE's entertainment channels. He assumed his current role in July 2008.
Mr Goenka is a great mentor. He has shared his experiences and knowledge at management
education programs such as Young Managers Program at INSEAD, France, and 'Birthing of Giants'
by Young Entrepreneurs' Organization and MIT Enterprise Forum, Inc, Boston, USA.
Mr Anand Kumar
Leading Educationist & Social Entrepreneur
"Super 30: Revolutionizing Education
at the Grassroots"
Thematic
Presentation
Time: 14:45 - 15:25
Mr Anand Kumar is a noted Mathematics Teacher. In the last nine years, a phenomenal 236
students from his 'Super 30' initiative have cleared the Joint Entrance Test of the Indian Institute
of Technology (IIT). What is remarkable about this achievement is that most of the successful
candidates have been from the most underprivileged sections of society.
Mr Kumar has been fascinated by Mathematics since early childhood. Though he got an
opportunity to pursue higher education in Cambridge University, his poor financial health
came in the way. To help other financially disadvantaged students, who invariably fade away
without getting the right opportunities, he founded 'Super 30'. Under this initiative, he gives
underprivileged students free food, free lodging and above all free coaching.
The Discovery Channel has described 'Super 30' as a "revolutionary experiment to bring about
social change". In recognition of his achievements, the Bihar government conferred on Mr
Kumar the 'Maulana Abdul Kalam Azad Shiksha Puraskar' in November 2010. Various
international publications and TV channels have applauded Mr Kumar and his initiative. His
remarkable teaching abilities have also found him a place in the Limca Book of World Records.
August 27 - 31, 2012
11
Mr Kuldip K Kaura
CEO & Managing Director
ACC
Time: 15:45 - 16:25
CEO Track
Mr Kuldip K Kaura is CEO and Managing Director of ACC.
He has rich experience and a deep appreciation of the national and international business
environment. He has had the benefit of management education from reputed institutions like
London Business School and Swedish Institute of Management. He did his BE (Honors) in
Mechanical Engineering from Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani in 1968.
Mr Kaura worked with Vedanta Resources Plc for seven years, initially as the Managing Director
of Hindustan Zinc and thereafter as Chief Executive Officer of Vedanta Resources until 2008 and
played a significant role in the transformation and rapid growth of its group companies. Prior
to this, he had an 18-year stint with ABB India, an engineering company. During this period, he
grew through various key positions and was Managing Director from 1998 to 2001.
He has served as Member of National Council of the Confederation of Indian Industries and is
an office bearer of other such professional bodies.
Ms Mary Kom
World & Olympic Boxing Supermom
"Making India A World Champion –
Lessons from my journey"
Thematic
Presentation
Time: 16:30 - 17:10
Ms Mary Kom is a five-time World Boxing champion, and the only woman boxer to have won a
medal in each one of the six world championships. She is the only Indian woman boxer to have
qualified for the 2012 Summer Olympics, competing in the flyweight (51 kg) category and winning
the bronze medal. She is number-4 on the AIBA World Women's Ranking - flyweight category. She
has more than three Asian titles and eleven National titles under her belt.
Ms Kom initially tried to hide her interest in boxing from her family, since it was not considered
a suitable sport for a woman. However, after her victory in the Manipur state women's boxing
championship in 2000, her career became public. After winning the regional championship in
West Bengal, she began competing at the international level at the age of 18, only a year after
she started boxing. Her international debut was at the first AIBA Women's World Boxing
Championship in the United States, where she won a silver medal in the 48 kg weight category.
Ms Kom had the honor of jointly bearing the Queen's Baton with Mr Vijender Singh in the
opening ceremony run for the 2010 Commonwealth Games of Delhi. She is a recipient of the
Arjuna Award, the Padma Shri Award, and the Rajiv Gandhi Khel Ratna Award.
August 27 - 31, 2012
12
Ms Ekta Kapoor
Soap Queen & Top Bollywood Producer
"Re-shaping Entertainment –
Whether small screen or big!"
Thematic
Presentation
Time: 17:15 - 17:55
Ms Ekta Kapoor is a Television and Film Producer. She is the Joint Managing Director and
Creative Director of Balaji Telefilms. She has produced several TV serials, the most popular of
which include Hum Paanch, Kyunki Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi, Kahaani Ghar Ghar Kii, Kasautii
Zindagii Kay, Kkusum, Pavitra Rishta, and Bade Achhe Lagte Hain, to name but a few.
Ms Kapoor branched out into Bollywood movie production in 2001, beginning with Kyo Kii Main
Jhuth Nahin Bolta. Kyaa Kool Hai Hum, starring her brother Mr Tusshar Kapoor proved to be her
breakout hit and became one of the highest earners of 2005. The years 2010 and 2011 proved to
be important for her, with critical and commercial successes such as Love Sex Aur Dhokha, Once
Upon a Time in Mumbaai, Shor in the City, Ragini MMS and The Dirty Picture.
Among the awards Ms Kapoor received in 2012 are: Indian Telly Awards' Special Award for Best
Breakout in Films, Screen Awards' Best Performer of the Year, and Dadasaheb Phalke Academy
Awards' Phalke Icon Film & Television Producer. She received wide recognition for The Dirty
Picture (Hindi movie), Taryanche Bait (Marathi movie) and Bade Acche Lagte Hain (TV serial).
Panel discussions
1. 25 Years of Wealth Creation
Mr Motilal Oswal
CMD, Motilal Oswal Group
Mr Akash Prakash
CEO, Amansa Capital
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mr Raamdeo Agrawal
Joint MD, Motilal Oswal Group
1987 - 2012
2. Navigating Through Business Cycles
Mr Glenn Saldanha
Glenmark Pharma, CMD
Mr Vivek Chaand Sehgal
Motherson Sumi Group
Founder Chairman
Mr Sanjiv Bajaj
Bajaj Finserv, MD
Mr B Nagesh
Shoppers Stop
Vice-Chairman
13
India at a glance
From the 7th to the ...
... 8th Annual Global Investor Conference
India At A Glance
Macroeconomy, corporate earnings, markets
August 27 - 31, 2012
14
India at a glance: Macro







The macro backdrop is challenging with weakening fundamentals confronting
risks of twin deficits and policy stasis.
The quarterly GDP growth has come down to nine-year low and is further slowing
down to 5% level.
Inflation though have come down from their peak level, still hovers around 7%
level with core inflation somewhat above 5%.
It would be difficult to achieve any meaningful fiscal correction in FY13 due to
rising oil, food, fertilizer subsidy and on account of shortfall from spectrum sale
and disinvestment.
RBI pursued tight money in view of still high inflation and fiscal deficit. However,
slowing bank credit has eased pressures on liquidity.
On the external front, trade and current account deficit were record and
unsustainably high in FY12. However, decline in gold imports and higher portfolio
flows has stabilized the INR somewhat.
Slowing policy making have come in for critical focus with government still touting
booming FDI as sign of continued confidence in India. However, by its own
reckoning government needs to move forward on critical reform such as DTC, GST,
FDI, infrastructure and good governance.
GDP growth - annual (YoY %)
GDP growth - quarterly (YoY %)
IIP growth (YoY %)
WPI Inflation (YoY %)
August 27 - 31, 2012
15
India at a glance: Macro
Oil price and underrecoveries
Banking indicators
RBI rates
Liquidity situation
Currency and reserves
External balance (% of GDP)
FDI (USD b)
(AprMay)
Fiscal deficit (% of GDP)
August 27 - 31, 2012
16
India at a glance: Corporate earnings







Corporate India is facing slowdown driven by both domestic and global headwinds
and weathered it only partially. While its topline growth was protected in FY12
the bottomline was severely dented. In contrast in FY13 while sales growth is
expected to nearly halve, PAT growth seem to have plateaued.
MOSL Universe Ex RMs has seen a revenue growth of 23% andd 12% PAT growth for
FY12. However we estimate the same for FY13 at 12% and 9% respectively.
MOSL Universe Mar-12 PAT at INR803bn is at its all time high. However the same
moderarted to INR735bn for June-12 quarter.
Oil & Gas and Financials contribute 46% to the total earnings (v/s 44% YoY). Metals
has seen a drop in contribution from 15% to 12%. Overall the contribution of
domestic plays are expected to increase in FY13.
FY13 Sensex EPS expected to grow 8% to 1,213 and FY14 EPS to grow 14% to 1,380.
As a pointer to the importance of the interest rates for the corporate sector, interest
/ sales for BSE 500 companies Excl Financials and RMS went upto 3.4% as against
~2.9% registered in past several quarters.
Profitability as reflected by PAT margin declined to 7.9% as against 8.8% registered
in Mar-12 quarter.
MOSL Universe Ex RMS Sales Growth (%)
MOSL Universe Ex RMS PAT Growth (%)
Quarterly PAT (MOSL Universe Ex RMs, INR b)
August 27 - 31, 2012
17
India at a glance: Corporate earnings
Sensex EPS (INR)
MOSL Universe contribution to PAT (%)
Sector
Domestic Plays
Banking
Pvt
PSU
NBFC
Domestic Consumer
Auto Ex Tata Motors
Telecom
Consumer
Domestic Non - Consumer
Utilities
Capital Goods
Cement
Real Estate
Others
Global Plays
Cyclical
Oil & Gas ex RMs
Metals
Tata Motors
Non-Cyclical
Technology
Healthcare
MOSL Universe ex RMs
FY06
49
18
4
11
3
10
3
3
4
21
14
3
2
1
1
51
41
26
14
1
10
7
3
100
FY07
48
16
4
10
3
11
2
5
4
21
10
4
4
3
1
52
41
22
17
1
11
8
3
100
FY08
53
17
4
10
3
13
3
7
4
22
8
3
4
6
1
47
38
21
15
1
10
7
3
100
FY09
55
21
4
13
3
14
2
7
4
21
9
4
4
3
1
45
34
20
15
-1
11
8
2
100
FY10
59
23
5
13
4
14
4
6
4
22
11
5
4
2
1
41
29
19
10
1
11
9
3
100
FY11
53
22
6
12
5
11
3
3
4
20
10
5
3
2
1
47
36
20
12
3
11
8
3
100
FY12
54
24
7
12
5
9
3
2
4
21
11
5
3
1
1
46
34
21
9
4
12
9
3
100
FY13E
56
25
7
13
5
10
3
1
5
21
11
4
3
1
1
44
31
18
9
3
14
10
4
100
BSE 500 Companies Excluding Financials & RMS
August 27 - 31, 2012
18
India at a glance: Indian equities

After a 25% decline in CY11, Sensex has delivered a 15% return in CY12YTD. Over
the last 10 years, Sensex delivered a return CAGR of 18%; among the best
performing global markets.

FII flows for CY12 YTD has been at USD11.5b after a outflow of USD0.5B in CY11.

Market cap of 30 billion-dollar market cap companies in 2002 was USD82b; the
number of billion-dollar market cap companies has ballooned to 163 with market
cap of USD947b.

Indian Market Cap to GDP has fallen from 89% in FY11 to 70% in FY12. At current
ratio of 62%, the markets are trading in line with long-term averages.

Valuations remain below historical average (rolling 12-month forward PE of 13.8x
v/s 10-year average of 14.7x). However, RoEs are also below the averages.
Indian Markets Annual Return
India Vs Global 10 Year CAGR (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
19
India at a glance: Indian equities
Trend in FII Flows (USD b)
Companies with over USD1b market cap
Market Cap to GDP (%)
Sensex PE (x)
Sensex P/BV (x)
Sensex earnings yield v/s bond yield (%)
Indian market volumes
India Volatility Index (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
20
Participating Companies
ACC
AIA Engineering
Ambuja Cements
Ashok Leyland
Au Financiers
Axis Bank
Bajaj Auto
Bajaj Electricals
Bajaj Finance
Bajaj FinSer
Bharat Petroleum Corporation
Bharti Airtel
Cairn India
CESC
Container Corporation of India
DB Corp
Dewan Housing Finance
Dish TV
DLF
Emami
Fort Point Automotive
GAIL India
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Godrej Consumer Products
Grasim Industries
HDFC
HDFC Bank
Hero MotorCorp
Hindalco Industries
Hindustan Unilever
HPCL
HT Media
ICICI Bank
ICRA
Idea Cellular
IDFC
Indusind Bank
Info Edge (India)
Infosys
ING Vysya Bank
IPCA Laboratories
ITC
Jindal Steel & Power
JP Associates
August 27 - 31, 2012
JSW Energy
JSW Steel
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Larsen & Toubro
LIC Housing Finance
Lupin
Mahindra Finance
Mahindra & Mahindra
Manappuram Finance
Marico
Maruti Suzuki
McLeod Russel
MCX
Motherson Sumi Systems
Muthoot Finance
NTPC
Oil India
ONGC
Phoenix Mills
Pidilite Industries
Power Grid
Radico Khaitan
Raymonds
Reliance Communications
Reliance Industries
Reliance Infrastructure
Rural Electric Corporation
Shoppers Stop
Shriram Transport Finance
Sidhivinayak Logistics
Simplex Infrastructure
State Bank of India
Sun Pharmaceuticals
Tata Consultancy Services
Tata Motors
Tata Steel
Titan Industries
Ultratech Cement
Union Bank of India
Unitech Automobile
Voltas
Wipro
Yes Bank
21
ACC
Company description
ACC, part of Holcim group, is the third largest cement
company in India with total capacity of 30.7m tons, and
pan-India presence with 16 plants. It is the oldest player
in the Indian cement industry with ~10% market share.
Key investment positives






ACC is the best proxy on the Indian cement industry.
It is a market leader with share of ~10%, and without
revenue concentration in any particular region.
Strong brand equity and focus on trade segment
(~75% of volumes) drives premium pricing.
Focused on reducing power cost through captive
power plants and increasing use of alternate fuels.
It has equity stake in two coal blocks, viz, 200mt
reserve in MP (50% stake) and 685mt reserve in West
Bengal (14% stake). The mines, expected to become
operational in 3-4 years, will provide cost-effective
and long-term assured supply of energy.
High sensitivity to cement prices as every INR1/bag
change in cement price changes CY13E EPS by 2.4%.
With completion of major capex and strong cash flow
from operations, we estimate ACC to have net cash
balance of INR180/share by Dec-12.
Key challenges

Very limited scope to increase production through
blending as already 85% of cement sold is blended.
Stock info
ACC IN
188
1,328
4.5
1,422 / 982
2 / 1 / 28
Shareholding pattern (%)
22
Key news flows / triggers to watch
Cement demand recovery over next 12-18 months,
driven by pick-up in infrastructure activity.
 Sustenance of pricing discipline in the key markets
of South and North India.
 Outcome of the sector's appeal against CCI order
on alleged cartelization.

2QCY12 highlights
Realization improved 8% QoQ (+13% YoY) to
INR4,591/ton (v/s est INR4,396), led robust price
uptick across markets.
 Volumes grew just 2% YoY (-10% QoQ) to 6.05mt
(v/s est 6.1mt).
 Costs were largely in-line with estimates, as higher
than freight and other expenses were offset by
lower than estimated fuel cost.
 Despite cost push, positive surprise in realizations
led to INR180/ton QoQ improvement in EBITDA/ton
to INR1,076 (v/s est INR905).

Quarterly Performance
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
ACC has one of the highest dependence on
domestic coal, necessitating shift towards open
market/imported coal as availability of domestic
linkage coal reduces.
 Turning around loss-making RMC (ready-mix
concrete) subsidiary (INR25m PBIT loss), which is
going to be merged into ACC.

Jun-12
50.5
12.1
18.9
18.6
Mar-12
50.5
11.8
18.7
19.1
Jun-11
50.5
15.2
15.7
18.8
Y/E December
Jun-11
Operating Income 24,030
Change (%)
18.9
EBITDA
5,503
Change (%)
-0.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.9
Reported PAT
3,366
Adjusted PAT
3,366
Change (%)
-6.2
PAT Margin (%)
14.0
Key Operating metrics
Volume (mt)
5.93
Realizations(INR/t) 4,052
EBITDA (INR/t)
928
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
21,500
31.3
2,204
29.7
10.3
1,676
1,229
22.8
5.7
Dec-11
25,027
27.8
3,893
86.4
15.6
3,227
1,935
39.2
7.7
Mar-12
28,602
19.3
6,161
11.2
21.5
1,554
3,859
10.1
13.5
Jun-12
27,778
15.6
6,508
18.3
23.4
4,179
4,179
24.2
15.0
CY11
94,387
22.3
16,992
9.3
18.0
13,254
11,083
9.3
11.7
CY12E
112,721
19.4
22,428
32.0
19.9
11,675
13,981
26.1
12.4
5.69
3,779
387
5.95
4,206
654
6.72
4,256
917
6.05
4,591
1,076
23.7
3,978
716
25.5
4,429
881
August 27 - 31, 2012
ACC: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
CY10
77,173
-3.9
15,540
-38.5
20.1
CY11
94,387
22.3
16,992
9.3
18.0
CY12E
112,721
19.4
22,428
32.0
19.9
CY13E
129,592
15.0
25,501
13.7
19.7
Depreciation
Int. and Fin. Charges
Other Income - Rec.
EO Income/(Expense)
PBT After EO Item
Tax Rate (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
-3,927
-568
2,925
1,465
15,435
27.4
10,137
-38.2
-4,753
-969
3,518
-5,448
-1,216
4,150
-5,736
-750
4,400
17,685
25.1
11,083
9.3
16,560
29.5
13,981
26.1
Y/E December
Share Capital
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax Liability
Capital Employed
CY10
1,879
64,695
5,238
3,615
73,548
CY11
1,879
71,923
5,107
5,184
82,214
CY12E
1,879
77,001
3,000
5,598
85,598
CY13E
1,879
86,362
3,000
5,949
95,311
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
50,824
15,628
17,027
62,075
4,353
16,250
65,481
3,000
17,720
69,745
8,000
18,258
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Others
Curr. Liab. and Prov.
Account Payables
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
27,533
9,150
1,783
10,800
5,801
37,464
17,730
3,209
16,525
-9,931
73,548
36,179
10,997
2,604
16,526
6,053
36,644
20,687
5,416
10,540
-464
82,214
43,405
13,125
3,088
19,301
7,890
44,007
24,706
5,404
13,897
-602
85,598
49,902
15,089
3,550
22,190
9,071
50,594
28,404
6,213
15,977
-692
95,311
CY12E
30.7
25.5
7.3
83.0
4,429
11.4
881
19.9
CY13E
30.7
28.0
10.0
91.3
4,629
4.5
911
19.7
Balance Sheet
23,415
29.5
16,508
18.1
(INR Million)
Ratios
Y/E December
Basic (INR)
EPS
Consolidated EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
CY10
CY11
CY12E
CY13E
53.9
52.4
74.8
344.3
30.5
59.5
59.0
57.7
84.3
382.7
28.0
46.0
74.4
72.4
103.4
409.7
30.0
56.5
87.8
87.8
118.4
459.6
32.5
43.3
23.6
16.1
2.4
13.4
3.6
2.1
135
18.8
13.2
2.0
9.9
3.3
2.2
131
15.5
11.5
1.7
8.6
3.0
2.4
129
16.2
16.3
16.2
15.7
18.8
20.2
20.2
21.9
8
43
84
10
43
80
10
43
80
10
43
80
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield
EV/ton (USD-Cap)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Working Capital Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventories (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Cash Flow Statement
Key assumptions/operating metrics
Capacity (MT)
Dispatches (MT)
Growth (%)
Cap Util (%)
Net realization (INR/t)
Growth (%)
EBITDA (INR/t)
EBITDA Margins (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
CY10
30.7
21.3
-1.1
69.4
3,625
-2.8
730
20.1
CY11
30.7
23.7
11.5
77.4
3,978
9.7
716
18.0
(INR Million)
Y/E December
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Interest/Div. Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
EO Income/(Exp)
CF from Op. incl EO Exp.
CY10
15,540
2,925
-4,112
4,690
1,465
20,507
CY11
16,992
3,518
-2,863
-3,741
-2,897
16,803
CY12E
22,428
4,150
-4,471
2,914
3,354
21,666
CY13E
25,501
4,400
-6,556
2,979
0
26,324
(inc)/dec in FA
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Investments
-7,234
-2,270
-9,504
-4,729
777
-3,952
-7,500
-1,470
-8,970
-15,000
-538
-15,538
Issue of Shares
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
1
-431
-568
-6,668
-7,666
69
-131
-969
-6,095
-7,126
0
-2,107
-1,216
-6,597
-9,920
0
0
-750
-7,147
-7,897
Inc/Dec of Cash
3,337
Add: Beginning Balance 7,464
Closing Balance
10,800
5,725
10,800
16,526
2,776
16,526
19,301
2,889
19,301
22,190
23
Ambuja Cements
Company description
Key challenges
Ambuja Cements, a part of Holcim group, is the fourth
largest cement company in India with total capacity of
27.5m tons under its control.

It is one of the lowest cost producers of cement with
focus on structurally sound markets of North, West and
East. It is also one of the largest exporters of cement
from India.




Ambuja Cement is the best cement company in
India with strong brand equity, favorable market mix
(West, North & East), focused segment mix (on
retail/ trade) and well-diversified fuel and transport
mix, translating into one of the highest profitability,
capital efficiency and payout.
Ambuja enjoys leadership in key markets (#1 in
North and #2 in West).
It has well diversified fuel mix, with only 55-57%
dependence on domestic coal (of which 33%
linkage), ~30% requirement met by imported coal,
and balance by domestic pet-coke.
Expect softening in imported coal prices to benefit
Ambuja, given ~30% dependence on imported coal.
Given its strong cash flow from operations and
completion of major capex, we estimate Ambuja to
have net cash balance of INR22/share by Dec-12.
Stock info
ACEM IN
1,538
189
5.2
197 / 130
9 / 13 / 36
24
Cement demand recovery over next 12-18 months,
 Outcome of the appeal against CCI order in the
appellate tribunal on alleged cartelization.
2QCY12 highlights
1QCY12 realization improved 7% QoQ (10.7% YoY)
to INR4,556/ton (v/s est INR4,380), driven by strong
price improvement in domestic market and better
market/product mix (higher domestic cement
contribution).
 Volumes grew 6.5% YoY (-9% QoQ) to 5.63mt (v/s
est 5.8mt) incl clinker.
 Costs were largely in-line with estimates, as higher
than freight and other expenses were offset by
lower than estimated fuel cost
 1QCY12 EBITDA/ton improved by ~INR80 QoQ to
INR1,283 (v/s est INR1,138).

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others


Given limited capacity addition, any strong
recovery in sector volume growth would result in
capacity constraint for Ambuja in CY14.
 Any downturn in the export market would result in
oversupply in the domestic market, resulting in
pressure on prices in Ambuja's key market, Gujarat.
Jun-12
50.2
12.4
29.9
7.5
Mar-12
50.3
12.5
29.5
7.7
Jun-11
50.4
14.6
26.7
8.3
Y/E December
Jun-11
Change (%)
6.3
EBITDA
5,853
Change (%)
-3.0
Reported PAT
3,475
Adjusted PAT
3,475
Change (%)
-11.2
PAT Margin (%)
16.0
Volume (mt)
5.29
Realizations(INR/t) 4,114
EBITDA (INR/T)
1,106
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
18,051
15.4
3,115
10.0
17.3
1,715
1,854
21.9
10.3
Dec-11
23,366
30.6
4,285
36.2
18.3
3,099
3,305
31.2
14.1
Mar-12
26,333
19.0
7,445
20.7
28.3
3,122
5,075
24.5
19.3
Jun-12
25,660
17.9
7,223
23.4
28.2
4,689
4,689
34.9
18.3
FY12
85,306
15.4
19,315
5.9
22.6
12,289
12,547
0.9
14.7
FY13E
102,540
38.8
27,021
48.2
26.4
15,987
17,940
43.0
17.5
4.81
3,754
648
5.71
4,092
750
6.18
4,260
1,204
5.63
4,556
1,283
21.45
3,977
901
23.27
4,406
1,161
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ambuja Cements Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income - Rec.
EO Expense/(Income)
PBT after EO Exp.
Tax Rate (%)
PAT Adj for EO Items
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2010
73,902
4.4
18,236
-2.3
24.7
3,872
487
2,476
-265
16,619
24.0
12,434
4.7
2011
85,306
15.4
19,315
5.9
22.6
4,452
526
3,050
358
17,029
27.8
12,547
0.9
Balance Sheet
2012E
102,540
20.2
27,021
39.9
26.4
4,995
646
4,250
2,791
22,839
30.0
17,940
43.0
2013E
117,913
15.0
30,722
13.7
26.1
5,380
600
4,350
0
29,092
30.0
20,364
13.5
(INR Million)
Y/E December
Equity Share Capital
Net Worth
Deferred Liabilities
Total Loans
Capital Employed
2010
3,060
73,301
5,309
650
79,260
2011
3,069
80,694
6,436
494
87,624
2012E
3,069
89,704
7,350
500
97,554
2013E
3,069
101,990
8,222
500
110,713
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
56,278
9,307
6,260
61,865
5,773
8,643
64,642
5,000
13,597
69,262
8,000
17,057
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Bal.
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
31,353
9,019
1,282
17,482
23,942
12,976
10,966
7,412
38,283
9,250
2,409
20,712
26,942
15,881
11,061
11,341
42,140
11,237
2,809
22,474
27,827
14,483
13,344
14,312
48,458
12,922
3,231
25,844
32,067
16,722
15,345
16,391
Appl. of Funds
79,260
87,624
97,554
110,713
CY11
27.5
21.4
5.4
3,977
9.5
901
22.6
CY12E
27.5
23.3
8.5
4,406
10.8
1,161
26.4
CY13E
27.5
25.6
10.0
4,606
4.5
1,200
26.1
Parameters
Capacity (MT)
Despatches (MT)
Growth (%)
Net Realizations (INR/t)
Growth (%)
EBITDA (INR/ton)
EBITDA Margins (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
CY10
25.0
20.3
8.2
3,633
-3.5
896
24.7
Ratios
Y/E December
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2010
8.1
10.7
47.8
2.6
36.7
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton (Cap) - US$
Dividend Yield (%)
2011
2012E
2013E
8.2
11.1
52.4
3.2
46.7
11.7
14.9
58.3
3.5
44.9
13.3
16.8
66.3
4.0
39.7
24.0
17.7
3.7
3.2
14.1
180
1.6
16.8
13.1
3.4
2.6
9.8
175
1.8
14.8
11.7
3.0
2.2
8.4
171
2.0
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
18.1
24.1
16.3
23.2
21.1
30.7
21.3
30.9
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditor (Days)
0.9
6
44.5
64
1.0
10
39.6
68
1.1
10
40.0
52
1.1
10
40.0
52
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E December
2010
Op. Profit/(Loss) bef. Tax 18,236
Interest/Dividends Recd. 2,476
Direct Taxes Paid
-3,983
(Inc)/Dec in WC
3,617
EO Income
265
CF from Op. incl EO Exp
20,612
2011
19,315
3,050
-4,740
-699
-358
16,568
2012E
27,021
4,250
-6,852
-1,209
-2,791
20,419
2013E
30,722
4,350
-8,728
1,291
0
27,635
(inc)/dec in FA
-7,870
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
965
CF from Investments
-6,905
-6,504
-2,384
-8,888
-7,000
-4,953
-11,953
-13,000
-3,460
-16,460
Issue of Shares
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
618
-534
-487
-4,632
-5,035
846
972
-526
-5,741
-4,449
204
920
-646
-7,181
-6,703
0
873
-600
-8,078
-7,806
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
8,673
8,809
17,482
3,231
17,482
20,712
1,762
20,712
22,474
3,370
22,474
25,844
25
Ashok Leyland
Company description
Ashok Leyland (AL), the flagship company of Hinduja
Group, is India's 2nd largest M&HCV player (~25% share)
and largest bus manufacturer.
To expand its product offerings, AL has entered into
50:50 JV with Nissan for LCVs and John Deere for
construction equipment.
Key challenges
Higher capex plans (INR4.5b in FY13) and investment
in JVs/subsidiaries (INR3-3.5b) would restrict
balance sheet improvement.
 Intensifying competition, particularly from Daimler
(Bharat Benz) could materially alter Indian M&HCV
market's duopoly structure in the long term.






Stock info
AL IN
2,661
22
1.1
33 / 20
-10 / -20 / -10
26
1QFY13 highlights; guidance for FY13, FY14
1QFY13 realization declined 16% YoY (-10% QoQ)
impacted by higher discounts & product mix change
in favor of LCV Dost.
 EBITDA margin declined 290bp QoQ (-170bp YoY) to
8% on the back of lower realizations and negative
operating leverage. Higher interest cost dragged
down PAT to INR670m, down 22% YoY (-74% QoQ).
 AL earned ~INR150m PAT in 1QFY13 by contract
manufacturing & marketing Dost. However, the JV
would still be loss-making, and is expected to break
even at ~50,000 volumes.
 AL expects domestic M&HCV sector volumes to
remain flat in FY13. It expects its own volumes of
~132k (incl Dost), with M&HCV growth of 6-7%. It
has also cut Pantnagar's volume guidance to 30,000.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Reduction in interest rates & pick-up in economic
activity to boost CV demand.
 Launch of new products under AL-Nissan JV.
 Capex & investment plans for FY13.

Despite weakness in M&HCV demand due to macroheadwinds, AL is expected to report 5% MHCV
volume growth in FY13 with pick-up in its key
Southern market and new launches in 2HFY13.
Launch of LCV Dost by AL-Nissan JV plugs gap in AL's
product portfolio and marks entry in high growth
LCV segment.
While Dost would have adverse impact of 80bp/
120bp on standalone margins in FY13/14, it would
contribute 8%/9% to profits.
Ramp-up at Pantnagar plant and operating leverage
is expected to offset margin pressure arising from
higher discounts and increasing Dost contribution.
We expect EBITDA margin to decline only 20bp in
FY13 to 9.6%.
To counter the cyclical nature of the M&HCV
business, AL is focusing on enhancing contribution
from businesses like LCVs, spares, defense kits and
power solutions. Also, ramp-up in nascent exports
would help offset domestic cyclicality.
Jun-12
38.7
14.1
30.1
17.1
Mar-12
38.7
14.7
30.6
16.1
Jun-11
38.7
16.5
27.9
16.9
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
7.0
EBITDA
2,446
Change (%)
3.9
Reported PAT
862
Adjusted PAT
862
Change (%)
(29.6)
PAT Margin (%)
3.4
Volumes
19,277
Avg Realizn (INR m) 1.30
RM Cost (%)
27.9
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
30,946
14.0
3,312
8.6
10.7
1,541
1,541
(7.8)
5.0
Dec-11
29,035
30.4
2,104
26.7
7.2
669
669
54.3
2.3
Mar-12
43,110
12.0
4,700
(7.5)
10.9
2,587
2,574
(13.7)
6.0
Jun-12
30,074
19.7
2,407
(1.6)
8.0
670
670
(22.3)
2.2
FY12
128,420
14.9
12,561
3.5
9.8
5,660
5,647
(10.6)
4.4
FY13E
142,231
12.5
13,587
28.6
9.6
5,697
5,697
56.1
4.0
23,628
1.31
26.5
23,218
1.25
26.0
35,689
1.21
25.6
27,578
1.09
27.2
101,812
1.26
25.2
130,959
1.09
26.3
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ashok Leyland: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
111,771
Change (%)
54.3
Expenditure
99,634
EBITDA
12,137
EBITDA (%)
10.9
Depreciation
2,674
Interest & Fin. Charges
1,889
Other Income
445
Non-recurring Expense / (Inc)
PBT
8,018
Effective Rate (%)
21.3
Adjusted PAT
6,313
Change (%)
48.1
2012
2013E
2014E
128,420 142,231 162,996
14.9
10.8
14.6
115,859 128,644 146,994
12,561
13,587
16,001
9.8
9.6
9.8
3,528
3,828
4,266
2,553
3,162
3,387
404
350
545
(16)
6,900
6,947
8,893
18.0
18.0
18.0
5,647
5,697
7,292
-10.6
0.9
28.0
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Net Worth
Loans
Foreign curr. translation
Capital Employed
2011
1,330
39,630
26,733
4,439
70,802
2012
2,661
42,082
32,630
4,904
42
79,657
2013E
2,661
44,687
37,630
5,251
42
87,609
2014E
2,661
48,269
37,630
5,696
42
91,636
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
46,338
3,580
12,300
49,135
5,482
15,345
53,289
2,500
18,845
52,023
3,000
21,345
Curr.Assets, L & Adv.
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Net Current Assets
43,716
22,089
11,645
1,795
35,131
23,085
8,584
70,802
49,195
22,306
12,302
326
39,501
27,725
9,695
79,657
57,177
26,108
13,639
1,454
44,202
31,174
12,975
87,609
66,091
29,027
15,630
3,125
50,822
35,725
15,268
91,636
2013E
130,959
28.6
32000
321
1,086
-13.9
2014E
150,855
15.2
42000
31
1,080
-0.5
Y/E March
2011
Total Volumes (units)
94,106
Change (%)
47.2
of which Dost (units)
0
Change (%)
Realisations (INR '000)
1,188
Change (%)
4.8
August 27 - 31, 2012
2012
101,812
8.2
7593
1,261
6.2
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS (INR)
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS (INR)
Book Value per Share
DPS (INR)
Payout (Excl. Div. Tax) %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
2.4
49.0
3.4
14.9
1.0
42.1
2.1
-10.3
3.4
15.8
1.0
47.0
2.1
0.7
3.6
16.8
1.0
46.7
2.7
28.0
4.3
18.1
1.2
43.8
10.8
6.7
7.1
0.7
1.5
4.4
10.7
6.4
6.8
0.7
1.4
4.4
8.4
5.3
5.7
0.6
1.3
5.2
15.9
14.8
13.4
12.5
12.7
12.1
15.1
13.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
Y/E March
2011
8,018
Interest/Divi. Received
139
Depr. & Amortisation
2,674
Direct Taxes Paid
-1,503
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital -4,914
Other Items
1,638
CF from Oper. Activity
6,053
2012
9,033
404
3,528
-775
-2,580
0
9,609
2013E
9,759
350
3,828
-903
-2,152
0
10,882
2014E
11,735
545
4,266
-1,156
-622
0
14,768
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
0
6,053
16
9,625
0
10,882
0
14,768
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
CF from Inv. Activity
-3,501
-5,816
-9,317
-5,645
-3,045
-8,690
-5,000
-3,500
-8,500
-3,500
-2,500
-6,000
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Rec./(Paid)
Dividends Paid
0
3,733
-1,542
-2,327
-136
1,330
5,897
-2,553
-3,092
1,582
0
5,000
-3,162
-3,092
-1,253
0
0
-3,387
-3,710
-7,097
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
-3,400
Closing Balance
1,755
2,517
1,755
4,272
1,128
4,272
5,400
1,671
5,400
7,072
27
Axis Bank
Company description
Key challenges
Axis Bank (AXSB) is a leading private sector bank in
India, with a balance sheet size of INR2.9t+.

Promoted by UTI in 1994, the bank has a countrywide
presence through 1,681 branches and extension
counters in 1,080 locations and 10,300+ ATMs.
Over the past 10 years AXSB's assets CAGR is 35% and
PAT CAGR 42%. The bank has emerged as one of India's
best run banks and third largest private sector bank.
Margins have come to a normalized level of 3.253.5% after a decline of ~40bp to 3.4% over the past
two quarters. CASA ratio of ~36% (of which higher
share of granular SA of ~23%) and fall in bulk
deposits rates will cushion margins going forward.
 Strong corporate relationships, faster branch
expansion, and high customer acquisitions led to
strong CASA CAGR of 45%+ over FY02-12. We expect
this trend of healthy growth to continue in SA;
however, structural issues in CA deposits growth
might lead to overall moderation in CASA growth.
 AXSB's strengths in loan syndication, strong liability
franchise, and SME relationships lead to higher
contribution of fee income (~1.8%) to RoA.
 Led by healthy core income growth and controlled
opex, return ratios remain superior with RoA of 1.5%
and RoE of 20%.

Stock info
AXSB IN
414
1,110
8.2
1309 / 785
5 / -10 / -10
28
Resolution of key issues in infrastructure, materially
altering asset quality and growth outlook
 Improvement in margins and lower than expected
stress on loan book may provide earnings surprise.

Performance highlights of 1QFY13: Reported loan
growth of 30% (adjusted 21%), 18bp QoQ decline in
NIMs to 3.37%, SA growth of 22% YoY, Fee income
growth of ~10% YoY, annualized slippage ratio of
1.4%, additions to restructured loans of INR6.2b,
and outstanding restructured loans at 2.2% of loans.
 Guidance for FY13: Loan growth of 1.3-1.4x industry
with higher focus on retail loans; NIM of 3.25-3.5%,
fee income growth in-line with asset growth, stable
cost to income ratio of 45%, credit cost of 80-85bp
and addition of 200-250 branches every year.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Reliance on bulk deposits is high; in case of tight
liquidity, managing margins may be a challenge.
 AXSB's Tier-I capital stood at 9.5% (including 1Q
PAT). In our view, it would have to raise capital in
next 3-4 quarters to support its growth momentum.
 Maintain tight cost-to-income ratio of 45% is a
challenge, considering growing retail business and
pressure on core earnings.
 Considering significant macroeconomic stress, and
AXSB's higher exposure to SME and infrastructure
segments, asset quality may come under pressure
Jun-12
37.3
13.9
36.1
12.8
Mar-12
37.4
13.4
41.7
7.5
Jun-11
37.2
5.7
45.6
11.5
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Int. Income
17,241
% Change (Y-o-Y)
13.9
Other Income
11,679
Net Income
28,920
Operating Exp.
13,335
Operating Profit
15,585
% Change (Y-o-Y)
7.5
Other Provisions
1,758
Net Profit
9,424
% Change (Y-o-Y)
27.0
Loan Growth (%)
21.4
NIM (%)
3.3
GNPA (on cust. assets, %) 1.1
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
20,073
24.3
12,349
32,422
14,665
17,756
19.5
4,056
9,203
25.2
26.7
3.8
1.1
Dec-11
21,403
23.5
14,298
35,701
15,109
20,592
24.2
4,223
11,023
23.7
20.4
3.8
1.1
Mar-12
21,461
26.2
15,876
37,337
16,962
20,376
11.9
1,393
12,773
25.2
19.2
3.6
0.9
Jun-12
FY12
21,799 80,177
26.4
22.2
13,355 54,202
35,154 134,380
15,517 60,071
19,637 74,309
26.0
15.8
2,588 11,430
11,535 42,422
22.4
25.2
29.8
19.2
3.4
3.6
1.1
0.9
FY13E
95,633
19.3
65,224
160,857
71,341
89,516
20.5
17,297
48,748
14.9
20.0
3.6
1.6
August 27 - 31, 2012
Axis Bank: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
Interest Income
151,548 219,946
Interest Expense
85,918 139,769
Net Interest Income
65,630
80,177
Change (%)
31.1
22.2
Non Interest Income
46,321
54,202
Net Income
111,951 134,380
Change (%)
25.1
20.0
Operating Expenses
47,794
60,071
Pre Provision Profits
64,157
74,309
Change (%)
22.4
15.8
Provisions (excl tax)
12,800
11,430
PBT
51,357
62,878
Tax
17,472
20,456
Tax Rate (%)
34.0
32.5
PAT
33,885
42,422
Change (%)
34.8
25.2
Equity Dividend (Incl tax) 6,704
7,701
Core PPP*
57,241
70,662
Change (%)
32.2
23.4
*Core PPP is (NII+Fee income-Opex)
Balance Sheet
2013E
270,186
174,553
95,633
19.3
65,224
160,857
19.7
71,341
89,516
20.5
17,297
72,219
23,471
32.5
48,748
14.9
8,840
84,119
19.0
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
4,105
4,132
4,253
Reserves & Surplus
185,883 223,953 265,145
Net Worth
189,988 228,085 269,398
Deposits
1,892,378 2,201,043 2,597,231
Change (%)
33.9
16.3
18.0
of which CASA Dep
777,674 914,220 1,037,433
Change (%)
17.8
17.6
13.5
Borrowings
262,679 340,717 390,301
Other Liabilities & Prov. 82,089
86,433 101,586
Total Liabilities
2,427,134 2,856,278 3,358,516
Current Assets
214,087 139,339 192,694
Investments
719,916 931,921 1,025,113
Change (%)
28.6
29.4
10.0
Loans
1,424,078 1,697,595 2,037,114
Change (%)
36.5
19.2
20.0
Fixed Assets
22,731
22,593
22,558
Other Assets
46,321
64,829
81,037
Total Assets
2,427,134 2,856,278 3,358,516
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR m)
15,994
NNPA (INR m)
4,104
GNPA Ratio
1.11
NNPA Ratio
0.29
PCR (Excl Tech. write off)
74.2
PCR (Incl Tech. Write off)
80.9
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
311,278
197,753
113,525
18.7
78,891
192,417
19.6
85,232
107,185
19.7
24,143
83,041
26,988
32.5
56,053
15.0
10,165
100,538
19.5
2014E
4,253
312,510
316,763
3,116,677
20.0
1,203,178
16.0
445,762
118,943
3,998,145
214,539
1,178,880
15.0
2,485,280
22.0
22,202
97,244
3,998,145
(%)
18,063
4,726
1.06
0.28
73.3
80.9
33,244
10,724
1.61
0.53
67.7
73.1
Ratios
Y/E March
Spreads Analysis (%)
Avg. Yield-Earning Assets
Avg. Yield on loans
Avg. Yield on Investments
Avg. Cost-Int. Bear. Liab.
Avg. Cost of Deposits
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
RoE
RoA
Int. Expense/Int.Income
Fee Income/Net Income
Non Int. Inc./Net Income
Efficiency Ratios (%)
Cost/Income*
Empl. Cost/Op. Exps.
Busi. per Empl. (INR m)
NP per Empl. (INR lac)
* ex treasury
Asset-Liability Profile (%)
Loans/Deposit Ratio
CASA Ratio
Investment/Deposit Ratio
G-Sec/Investment Ratio
CAR
Tier 1
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
7.8
8.4
6.9
4.6
4.5
3.2
3.4
9.0
9.9
7.7
6.0
6.0
3.1
3.3
9.4
10.3
7.6
6.3
6.4
3.1
3.3
9.1
9.9
7.6
6.0
6.0
3.1
3.3
19.3
1.6
56.7
26.1
41.4
20.3
1.6
63.5
28.2
40.3
19.6
1.6
64.6
29.4
40.5
19.1
1.5
63.5
29.8
41.0
42.7
33.8
120.1
1.4
44.7
34.6
124.0
1.5
44.4
34.4
125.3
1.4
44.3
34.6
130.9
1.4
75.3
41.1
38.0
61.3
12.7
9.4
77.1
41.5
42.3
62.7
13.7
9.5
78.4
39.9
39.5
63.3
13.0
9.4
79.7
38.6
37.8
66.1
12.2
9.1
463.1
16.9
547.4
18.2
2.0
540.0
2.1
102.7
24.4
10.8
16.0
1.4
629.0
14.9
1.8
612.6
1.8
114.6
11.6
9.7
17.8
1.6
740.4
17.7
1.5
716.8
1.5
131.8
15.0
8.4
20.4
1.8
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
Change (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
Change (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend Per Share (INR)
Dividend Yield (%)
456.6
82.5
33.0
14.0
51,618
15,406
2.05
0.62
70.2
73.6
29
Bajaj Auto
Company description
Bajaj Auto (BJAUT), the flagship company of the Bajaj
group, is India's leading manufacturer of two-wheelers
(~88% of sales volume mix) and three-wheelers
(balance 12% of volume mix).
BJAUT is the leader in India's three-wheeler market,
and the second largest player in motorcycles, where it
enjoys leadership in the premium segment. It is also
the largest exporter of two- and three-wheelers
(exports account for 36% of its volumes).





Well-diversified product/market mix with both
presence in both two- and three-wheelers, and both
domestic and export markets. Its exposure to
domestic <125cc segment, where competitive
intensity is set to increase, is only ~26%.
Prime beneficiary of uptrading, over the longer
term, with rise in customers' income and aspiration
levels helped by its leadership in premium
motorcycle segment.
Exports, which are scaling up rapidly to ~40% in FY13,
should benefit from alliance with Kawasaki (market
access) and KTM (access to technology & markets).
Renewed strategy with focus on more profitable
Pulsar & Discover brands would sustain high margin.
Significant free cash flow generation coupled with
limited capex would help sustain dividend payout
at higher levels (~49% in FY12).
Stock info
BJAUT IN
289
1,697
8.8
1839 / 1401
14 / -3 / 12
30
Increasing competitive intensity in the domestic
two-wheeler market could restrict pricing power.
 Strengthening of commodity prices tends to put
pressure on margins.

Scale-up of recent launches - Pulsar 200NS and
Discover 125ST would be critical for growth.
 Response to Honda's recently launched 110cc Dream
Yuga (first mass motorcycle) needs to be watched.
 Recovery in key export markets of SL & Egypt.
 Weak INR would support margins. While FY13 is
largely hedged with peak realization of INR50/USD,
it would get good rates for FY14 hedges, which
would support FY14 margins.

1QFY13 volumes de-grew 1% YoY (+6% QoQ) to
1.08m. Adverse product/market mix led to
sequential decline (-1.4% QoQ) in realizations.
 EBITDA margin declined 190bp QoQ (+10bp YoY) to
17.9% (v/s est 18.7%), impacted by adverse mix of
product (lower 3W volumes) & market (lower
exports), higher staff cost and higher other
expenses. Higher other income boosted adj PAT to
INR7.2b (- 1% YoY, -5% QoQ).
 BJAUT expects exports to recover from August 2012,
resulting in additional three-wheeler sales volume
of 12-13,000/month.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Key challenges
Jun-12
50.0
9.8
15.3
24.9
Mar-12
50.0
8.4
16.9
24.7
Jun-11
50.0
8.1
16.3
25.6
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Op. Income
47,063
Change (%)
21.0
EBITDA
8398.4
Change (%)
8.1
Adjusted PAT
7,111
Change (%)
20.5
Volumes ('000)
1,093
Realization (INR) 43,066
Gross margin (%)
26.4
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
51,854
19.4
9754.7
(9.0)
18.8
7,898
15.8
Dec-11
49,859
19.4
9841.3
15.9
19.7
8,340
25.0
Mar-12
46,514
12.2
9205.5
14.6
19.8
7,590
12.3
Jun-12
48,657
3.4
8,717
3.8
17.9
7,184
1.0
FY12
195,290
19.1
37,200
17.3
19.0
31,069
(9.7)
FY13E
211,738
8.4
39,323
5.7
18.6
31,744
2.2
1,164
44,543
27.5
1,075
46,361
28.5
1,017
45,729
28.8
1,079
45,095
27.9
4,350
44,899
27.8
4,685
45,196
28.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
Bajaj Auto: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Depreciation
Int. & Fin. Charges
Other Income
Non-recurring Exp.
PBT
Effective Rate (%)
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
163,981
37.6
31,711
19.3
1,228
17
5,765
-7,246
43,476
23.2
26,150
43.9
2012
195,290
19.1
37,200
19.0
1,456
222
6,080
1,340
40,262
25.4
31,069
18.8
2013E
211,738
8.4
39,323
18.6
1,466
102
7,271
0
45,027
29.5
31,744
2.2
2011
2,894
49,102
297
3,252
52,651
2012
2,894
60,411
484
975
61,870
2013E
2,894
75,226
1,160
975
77,361
2014E
2,894
96,565
2,010
975
99,550
Net Fixed Assets
14,827
Capital WIP
699
Investments
47,952
Current Assets
28,726
Inventory
5,473
Sundry Debtors
3,628
5,565
39,553
Sundry Creditors
19,431
Net Current Assets
-10,827
52,651
14,817
417
48,828
46,749
6,785
4,228
16,538
48,941
20,031
-2,192
61,870
15,268
1,000
48,828
65,873
7,946
4,891
32,862
53,609
23,231
12,265
77,361
16,737
1,000
48,828
94,345
9,258
5,699
56,594
61,360
27,068
32,985
99,550
2013E
4,685
7.7
45,196
0.7
50.0
71.8
2014E
5,295
13.0
46,484
2.9
52.0
70.7
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Net Worth
Deferred Tax
Loans
Capital Employed
2014E
246,132
16.2
49,315
20.0
1,532
13
8,909
0
56,680
29.5
39,959
25.9
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Volumes ('000 units)
Change (%)
Realisations (INR)
Change (%)
INR/USD
RM Cost (% of sales)
2011
3,844
34.2
42,883
2.6
46.5
71.9
2012
4,350
13.1
44,899
4.7
48.0
72.2
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS (INR)
EPS growth (%)
Cash EPS (INR)
DPS (INR)
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
2011
90.4
43.9
94.6
169.7
40.0
51.4
2012
107.4
18.8
112.4
208.8
45.0
48.7
2013E
109.7
2.2
114.8
260.0
50.0
53.3
2014E
138.1
25.9
143.4
333.7
55.0
46.6
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
18.7
17.9
13.8
2.7
10.0
2.4
15.8
15.0
11.4
2.2
8.1
2.7
15.4
14.7
10.4
1.9
6.5
3.0
12.2
11.8
7.8
1.6
5.1
3.3
RoE
RoCE
66.7
76.0
56.7
73.0
46.8
64.8
46.5
64.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
2011
2012
32,867
38,829
Interest/Div. Received
3,631
3,261
Depreciation & Amort.
1,228
1,456
Direct Taxes Paid
-9,743
-11,483
(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital-8,215
797
19,768
32,860
2013E
37,857
7,271
1,466
-12,607
1,867
35,854
2014E
47,784
8,909
1,532
-15,870
3,011
45,365
-1,678
-8,184
-9,863
-1,159
-6,557
-7,716
-2,500
0
-2,500
-3,000
0
-3,000
Inc. / Dec.in Networth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
0
-1,866
-17
-6,737
-8,620
0
-2,001
-222
-13,420
-15,644
0
0
-102
-16,928
-17,030
0
0
-13
-18,621
-18,634
1,285.4
1,002
2,287
9,501
5,565
15,066
16,324
16,538
32,862
23,731
32,862
56,594
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
August 27 - 31, 2012
(INR Million)
31
Bharat Petroleum Corporation
Company description
Key challenges
A Fortune 500 company, BPCL has interests in oil refining
and marketing of petroleum products. It is the third
largest refining company in India with a capacity of
12mmtpa at its Mumbai refinery and 9.5mmtpa at Kochi.
BPCL has majority stake (63%) in Numaligarh Refineries,
a 3mmtpa refinery in the north-east. Besides, it has
investments in IGL (22.5% stake) and Petronet LNG
(12.5% stake). BPCL is a public sector undertaking in
which the government of India holds 54.93%.

Earnings contingent on subsidy sharing: BPCL's
profitability continues to be determined by
quantum of under-recoveries and sharing
mechanism, rather than fundamentals. Post deregulation and subsidy rationalization, BPCL's
valuations should benefit due to improvements in
(1) earnings quality, (2) RoCE and RoE, (3) cash cycle,
and (4) debt levels.
 Bina refinery to boost medium-term growth: BPCL
has 49% stake in the ~INR114b Bina refinery, which
will have a capacity of 6mmtpa. Bina is expected to
ramp-up commercial production going forward.
 Expect upside potential in E&P value: BPCL's E&P
portfolio is likely to add substantial value as it
completes its appraisal program and gives out the
certified resource/reserve numbers.

Ad hoc subsidy sharing, delays in diesel
deregulation.
 Non-commensurate increase in retail fuel prices as
crude price rises leads to under-recoveries for BPCL.
Further, ad-hoc nature of subsidy sharing impacts
profits, even more so on a quarterly basis.
Clarity on certified recoverable reserves from its
E&P blocks in Brazil and Mozambique.
 Capacity utilization and GRM performance at its new
6mmtpa Bina refinery.
 Subsidy rationalization by the government and decontrol of diesel prices.
 Timelines on (1) cash transfer for PDS kerosene,
and (2) limiting of LPG cylinders to households.

BPCL's net under-recovery in 1QFY13 stood at INR80b
due to (1) absence of any budgetary support from
government, and (2) upstream subsidy sharing at
only 32% (v/s 40% in FY12).
 BPCL's 1QFY13 reported GRM stood at USD2.6/bbl
v/s negative GRM reported by HPCL (USD-2.1/bbl)
and IOC (USD-4.8/bbl).
 BPCL expects 100% utilization for its JV refinery at
Bina, Madhya Pradesh.

Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11 Dec-11
Operating Income
461
423
588
Change (%)
34.7
19.7
60.4
EBITDA
-22
-27
37
Change (%)
nm
nm
406.3
EBITDA Margin (%) -4.7
-6.4
6.3
Reported PAT
-26
-32
31
Adjusted PAT
-26
-32
31
Change (%)
nm
nm
1575.5
PAT Margin (%)
nm
nm
5.3
Key operating Metrics
GRM (USD/bbl)
3.0
1.7
3.5
Gross under recovery 103
49
76
Upstream sharing
34
16
36
Oil Bonds
35
0
70
Net Under/(Over) reco.34
32
-29
As a % of Gross
32.6
nm
nm
E: MOSL Estimates; nm - Not Meaningful
BPCL IN
723
341
4.4
395 / 230
-13 / 13 / -5
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
32
Jun-12
55.8
18.1
9.0
17.0
Mar-12
55.8
18.8
8.0
17.5
Jun-11
55.8
20.2
6.8
17.2
(INR Billion)
Mar-12
646
42.9
51
207.6
7.8
40
40
323.8
6.1
Jun-12
545
18.2
-82
nm
-15.0
-88
-88
nm
nm
FY12
2,119
39.9
38
13
1.8
13
13
-15.2
0.6
FY13E
2,222
4.9
42
10
1.9
12
12
-10.3
0.5
4.2
98
43
92
-36
nm
2.6
116
37
0
80
68.5
3.2
326
130
197
00
0.0
4.7
353
140
213
0.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Financials and valuation
Income Statement (Consolidated)
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Net Sales
1,536,450 2,119,639 2,392,999 2,280,411
Change (%)
24.1
38.0
12.9
-4.7
Finished Gds Purchase 701,497 918,786 1,066,497 986,722
RM & Other exp
692,475 1,030,487 1,173,849 1,167,766
Other operating Exp.
99,865 123,996
94,279
68,340
EBITDA
42,612
46,370
58,375
57,583
% of Net Sales
2.8
2.2
2.4
2.5
Depreciation
18,914
24,108
25,715
27,300
Interest
12,468
22,591
20,582
15,776
Other Income
17,252
16,324
11,517
9,391
PBT
28,483
15,995
23,594
23,898
Tax
11,062
7,482
7,489
7,038
Rate (%)
38.8
46.8
31.7
29.5
Minority Interest
1,071
705
1,005
1,005
PAT
16,350
7,809
15,101
15,856
Adj. PAT
16,350
7,809
15,101
15,856
Change (%)
0.2
-52.2
93.4
5.0
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority interest
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
(INR Million)
2011
7,231
146,277
153,508
9,975
251,855
13,074
428,412
2012
7,231
149,434
156,664
10,679
237,117
13,074
417,535
2013E
7,231
160,305
167,535
11,684
207,115
12,733
399,068
2014E
7,231
172,776
180,007
12,689
197,217
12,392
402,305
Gross Fixed Assets
344,851
Less: Depreciation
152,581
Net Fixed Assets
192,269
Capital WIP
82,864
Investments
84,600
Intangibles
3,855
Curr. Assets, L & Adv.
Inventory
182,135
Debtors
28,779
Cash & Bank Balance
7,971
Loans & Advances
86,421
Liabilities
206,051
Provisions
34,462
Net Current Assets
64,792
Less: Miscellaneous exp.
33
428,412
375,695
176,690
199,005
90,000
96,510
3,855
459,927
202,405
257,522
45,000
111,510
3,855
481,870
229,705
252,165
45,000
126,510
3,855
186,953
42,576
20,174
86,356
178,997
38,034
2,955
86,356
169,887
35,443
9,430
86,356
278,217
29,709
28,133
33
417,535
295,725
29,469
-18,852
33
399,068
297,598
28,777
-25,258
33
402,305
2013E
53.5
32.9
24.0
4.7
7.8
-3.1
2014E
52.0
33.5
24.2
6.0
8.0
-2.0
Y/E March
Exchange rate
Marketing sales (mmt)
Refinery throughput (mmt)
GRM (USD/bbl)
Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)
Prem/(disc)
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
45.6
29.1
21.8
4.5
5.2
-0.7
2012
47.9
31.1
22.9
3.2
8.2
-5.1
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
Dividend
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
22.6
48.8
212.3
7.0
39.4
10.8
44.1
216.7
5.5
59.6
20.9
56.4
231.7
5.0
28.0
21.9
59.7
248.9
4.0
21.3
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Sales
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
15.1
7.0
11.8
0.3
1.6
2.1
31.6
7.7
10.3
0.2
1.6
1.6
16.3
6.0
7.9
0.2
1.5
1.5
15.6
5.7
7.8
0.2
1.4
1.2
RoE
RoCE
11.1
5.5
5.0
5.3
9.3
8.0
9.1
7.6
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (No. of Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
7
4.8
6
5.9
6
5.7
6
4.8
Leverage Ratio
Debt / Equity (x)
1.6
1.5
1.2
1.1
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
28,632
Depreciation
18,914
Interest Paid
12,468
Direct Taxes Paid
-12,475
Other operating items -13,028
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital 13,489
CF from Op. Activity
48,001
2012
15,995
24,108
22,591
-7,482
0
48,863
104,075
2013E
23,594
25,715
20,582
-7,830
0
29,765
91,827
2014E
23,898
27,300
15,776
-7,379
0
12,881
72,476
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
-43,057
(Pur)/Sale of Investments 38,532
-4,525
-37,980
-11,910
-49,890
-39,232
-15,000
-54,232
-21,943
-15,000
-36,943
Issue of Shares
Net Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Interest paid
Dividends Paid
Other Fi. Activities
0
4,137
-13,967
-6,449
3,278
-13,001
0
-14,738
-22,591
-4,653
0
-41,981
0
-30,002
-20,582
-4,230
0
-54,814
0
-9,898
-15,776
-3,384
0
-29,058
Inc / ( Dec) in Cash
30,475
Cash (incl ST borrowings) -22,504
Closing Balance
7,971
12,203
7,971
20,174
-17,219
20,174
2,955
6,475
2,955
9,430
33
Bharti Airtel
Company description
Bharti Airtel is one of the world's leading providers of
telecom services with significant presence in India,
operations spread over 17 countries of Africa, Sri Lanka
and Bangladesh with an aggregate customer base of
~260m. It is an integrated operator with presence in
wireless, fixed-line and broadband, long distance,
enterprise, and passive infrastructure. It is India's
largest wireless operator with revenue market share
of ~30% and population coverage of 86%.

Bharti continues to consolidate its wireless
leadership in India with wireless subscriber share
of ~20% and revenue share of ~30%.
 Well positioned to capture rural growth given deep
coverage and favorable frequency allocation.
 Industry consolidation is inevitable given continued
high losses of challengers and stretched balance
sheets across operators.


2G spectrum auction mandated by the Supreme
Court is expected to be held in Nov-12. The auction
is expected to set the base price for all future
spectrum payments.
 Potential listing of passive infrastructure subsidiary
Bharti Infratel.
 Final government decision on spectrum re-farming.
 Ramp-up of its 3G subscriber base post recent sharp
tariff cuts introduced by the industry.



Key challenges
Hyper-competition in the Indian mobile business.
 Regulatory uncertainty and significant potential
liability of ~INR400b related to allocated spectrum
if incumbents are required to pay in line with the
announced reserve price of INR28b per MHz for panIndia spectrum in 1,800MHz band.
 High sensitivity to forex and interest rates.
 Adverse macro environment in Africa.

Stock info
BHARTI IN
3,798
262
17.8
417 / 253
-22 / -22 / -39
34


Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others

1QFY13 PAT declined 37% YoY and 24% QoQ to
INR7.6b, significantly below estimate of INR10.7b.
Consolidated revenue of INR 193.5b (+ 3.3% QoQ)
was broadly in-line. EBITDA/PAT were 8/29% below
estimates due to 300bp QoQ EBITDA margin
decline. PAT was boosted by INR1.6b forex gain.
India mobile traffic grew 3.7% QoQ and mobile RPM
declined 2.5% QoQ to 42.7p; both in-line.
Africa EBITDA declined 8% QoQ to USD275m (v/s
est flat) on 0.4% QoQ revenue growth (2.7% traffic
growth, 3.1% RPM decline). EBITDA margin declined
200bp QoQ to 25.8%.
Africa business was impacted from higher economic
linkages of economy with Europe, violence in
Nigeria/DRC and increased competition in Ghana.
Net debt increased by INR32.5b QoQ to ~INR683b.
Bharti has guided for capex of USD2-2.2b in India &
SA, and USD900m in Africa.
Jun-12
45.7
8.4
39.9
6.0
Mar-12
45.7
8.2
40.0
6.2
Jun-11
45.5
8.5
40.6
5.4
Y/E March
Jun-11
Revenue
169,749
YoY Change(%)
38.8
EBITDA
57,058
YoY Change(%)
29.3
EBITDA Margin(%) 33.6
Adjusted PAT
12,152
YoY Change(%)
-27.7
Key operating metrics
India Mobile
Traffic (B Min)
221
RPM (INR/min)
0.43
Africa
Subscribers (m)
46
ARPU (USD/mon)
7.2
EBITDA margin (%) 25.2
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
172,698
13.5
58,151
13.5
33.7
10,270
-38.2
Dec-11
184,767
17.3
59,584
19.6
32.2
10,113
-22.4
Mar-12
187,294
15.1
62,329
14.4
33.3
10,059
-28.2
Jun-12
193,501
14.0
58,487
2.5
30.2
7,622
-37.3
FY12
714,507
20.2
237,122
18.8
33.2
42,595
-29.6
FY13E
801,736
12.2
244,597
3.2
30.5
28,439
-33.2
217
0.43
219
0.45
231
0.44
239
0.43
889
0.44
997
0.43
48
7.3
26.2
51
7.1
26.7
53
6.8
27.8
56
6.5
25.8
53
7.1
26.5
65
6
25.9
August 27 - 31, 2012
Bharti Airtel: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Revenues
Change (%)
Total Expenses
EBITDA
% of Gross Sales
Depn. & Amortization
EBIT
Net finance cost
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Minority Interest
Adjusted PAT
(INR Million)
2011
594,672
42.1
395,007
199,664
33.6
102,066
97,598
21,813
998
76,783
17,790
23.2
-1,475
60,468
2012
714,507
20.2
477,385
237,122
33.2
133,680
103,442
38,185
-73
65,184
22,602
34.7
-13
42,595
Balance Sheet
2013E
801,736
12.2
557,138
244,597
30.5
155,780
88,818
38,559
-222
50,037
21,217
42.4
381
28,439
2014E
884,756
10.4
609,474
275,282
31.1
162,892
112,390
38,963
-245
73,182
27,654
37.8
5,952
39,577
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Share Capital
18,988
18,988
18,988
18,988
Add. Paid up Capital
56,499
56,499
56,499
56,499
Reserves
412,181 430,626 443,150 476,363
Net Worth
487,668 506,113 518,637 551,850
Loans
616,708 690,232 871,062 970,254
Minority Interest
28,563
27,695
26,409
32,360
Other Liabilities
28,078
31,920
38,739
39,845
18,572
18,861
22,124
22,943
Capital Employed
1,179,589 1,274,821 1,476,971 1,617,252
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout %(Incl.Div.Taxes)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
15.9
42.8
136.1
1.0
6.3
11.2
46.5
140.7
1.1
10.0
7.5
48.6
143.7
0.7
10.0
10.4
53.4
154.0
1.0
10.0
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
16.4
6.1
8.0
2.7
1.9
0.4
23.3
5.6
6.9
2.3
1.9
0.4
35.0
5.4
6.9
2.1
1.8
0.3
25.1
4.9
5.8
1.8
1.7
0.4
RoE
RoCE
12.6
8.7
8.1
6.2
5.3
4.5
7.0
5.1
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
34
0.78
33
0.65
34
0.70
34
0.78
Leverage Ratio
Net Debt/Equity (x)
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.0
Cash Flow Statement
Gross Block
1,599,377 1,776,560 1,928,439 2,037,680
Less : Depreciation
310,634 440,740 517,139 680,037
Net Block
1,288,743 1,335,820 1,411,300 1,357,643
Other Non-Curr. Assets
64,244
86,711 106,505 107,146
Curr. Assets
112,077
Inventories
2,139
Debtors
54,929
Cash & Bank Balance
9,575
Short-term investments
6,968
Other Current Assets
38,466
148,084
1,308
63,735
20,300
18,934
43,807
304,832
1,341
75,675
82,921
93,490
51,405
504,140
1,479
82,182
172,921
193,490
54,068
Curr. Liab. & Prov.
285,475 295,795
Creditors
249,737 243,461
Other Current Liabilities 35,738
52,334
Net Curr. Assets
-173,398 -147,710
345,666
297,728
47,937
-40,834
351,678
303,465
48,213
152,462
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
1,179,589 1,274,821 1,476,970 1,617,252
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Op.Profit/(Loss) bef Tax 199,664
Other Income
998
Interest Paid
-21,813
Direct Taxes Paid
-37,970
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap. 120,819
CF from Op.Activity
261,699
2012
237,122
-73
-38,185
-25,730
-18,280
154,854
2013E
244,597
-222
-38,559
-28,673
42,819
219,963
2014E
275,282
-245
-38,963
-27,654
-4,344
204,076
(inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP -848,290 -180,757 -231,260 -109,235
(Pur)/Sale of Investments 45,451 -11,990 -83,761 -100,000
-802,839 -192,748 -315,020 -209,235
Issue of Shares
9,624
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
514,810
Other Financing Activities
961
CF from Fin.Activity
525,395
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
-15,748
25,323
9,575
-19,791
73,524
-5,113
48,620
-18,641
180,830
-4,508
157,681
-74
99,192
-3,959
95,159
10,725
9,575
20,300
62,621
20,300
82,921
90,000
82,921
172,921
35
Cairn India
Company description
Key challenges
Cairn India, an E&P company, listed in January 2007
through an IPO after it spun off from its parent Cairn
Energy Plc. Recently, Cairn Energy sold its majority stake
in Cairn India to Vedanta Group. Cairn has working
interest in 10 E&P blocks. Ravva and Cambay blocks
produce about 40kboepd (Cairn WI ~10kbpd). The
Rajasthan block, which accounts for ~80% of Cairn's
reserves, produced at 167kbpd (Cairn WI ~ 117kbpd) in
1QFY13 and is currently producing at 175kbpd.

Expect ramp-up in production, smooth government
approvals: Resolution of royalty and cess issue has
realigned its economic interests with its JV partner,
ONGC, and the government. Post Vedanta
acquisition, it has ramped up its production from
125 to 175kbpd. Key things to be watch out in near
term are (1) debottlenecking of pipeline, and (2)
production ramp-up. Expect significant free cash
flow as production from Rajasthan ramps up.
 Upside from additional exploration: Rajasthan block
is a world-class asset. There remains upside from
current area and additional area to be developed.
 Initial success in other exploratory blocks: Of the
current 7 exploration blocks, 3 (2 in KG basin and 1
in Sri Lanka) have already recorded discoveries and
are likely to provide valuation upsides.

Stock info
CAIR IN
1,908
334
11.4
401 / 250
2 / -10 / 15
36
Debottlenecking of pipeline.
Approvals for further exploration in Rajasthan
block.
 Likely special dividend given the comfortable cash
position (net cash at USD2b as on June 30, 2012).


Rajasthan production averaged 167kbpd in 1QFY13
with exit rate of 175kbpd.
 Rajasthan realization stood at USD100/bbl, implying
9.1% discount to Brent price.
 Guided capex of USD2b over FY13-14 includes:
(1) USD600m for Rajasthan exploratory activities
(subject to government approvals), (2) USD600m for
Rajasthan development activities (management
hopeful of easy approvals), and (3) USD800m for
other exploratory activities in its exploration blocks.
 Ramp-up delayed due to (a) delay in pipeline debottlenecking, and (b) delay in the Aishwarya start
from 2HCY12 to 4QFY13.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Smooth approvals for Rajasthan production
ramp-up
 Clarity on cash utilization and payment of maiden
dividend.
Jun-12
58.9
6.4
26.9
7.9
Mar-12
58.9
7.0
29.2
4.9
Jun-11
62.2
7.3
7.5
23.0
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11
Operating Income
37
27
Change (%)
341.7
-1.3
EBITDA
32
21
Change (%)
390.6
-3.3
79.3
Reported PAT
27
21
Adjusted PAT
27
8
Change (%)
868.9
-51.9
PAT Margin (%)
73.4
28.8
Key Metrics
Rajasthan (gross) 125.1
125.3
Sales - Cairn's Share (kboepd)
Ravva and Cambay 12.1
11.5
Rajasthan
87.6
87.7
Realiz. (USD/bbl) 103.4
100.0
Disc. to Brent (%)
10.5
10.0
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Billion)
Dec-11
31
0.0
25
-0.7
82.2
23
23
12.5
73.0
Mar-12
37
-0.1
30
-5.0
81.6
22
22
-11.0
59.9
Jun-12
44
19.6
35
10.0
78.7
38
38
40.3
86.2
FY12
131
27.6
108
27
82.4
93
79
25.3
60.5
FY13E
175
33.1
132
22
75.6
107
107
35.1
61.4
125.1
137.6
167.1
128.3
173.0
11.4
87.6
98.3
8.2
10.9
96.3
106.7
8.7
10.2
117.0
99.3
8.7
11.5
89.8
102.1
9.0
10.2
121.1
92.5
11.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
Cairn India: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Change in Stock
Employee Costs
Operating Costs
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
D,D&A (incl. w/off)
Interest
Other Income
EBIT
Forex Fluctuations
Exceptional Item
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
102,779
533.3
-264
1,105
16,709
85,228
82.9
-13,596
-2,909
1,288
70,011
-1,112
0
68,899
5,556
7.9
63,343
63,343
502.6
2012
131,130
27.6
-263
861
22,475
108,056
82.4
-17,391
-2,220
3,194
91,639
6,148
-13,552
84,235
4,857
5.3
79,378
92,929
46.7
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Total Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
2013E
174,533
33.1
-180
991
41,793
131,929
75.6
-25,255
-345
4,861
111,190
5,841
0
117,031
9,824
8.8
107,207
107,207
15.4
2014E
180,090
3.2
0
1,139
53,901
125,050
69.4
-27,668
0
7,378
104,761
0
0
104,761
12,647
12.1
92,113
92,113
-14.1
(INR Million)
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Adjusted EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
Adj. Book Value
DPS
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
33.3
33.3
39.6
211.9
78.7
0.0
0.0
41.7
48.8
49.3
244.0
110.9
8.3
19.5
56.3
56.3
67.0
287.4
154.3
11.3
22.9
48.4
48.4
60.2
324.7
191.7
9.7
22.9
8.0
6.8
5.3
16.5
1.4
2.5
5.9
5.0
3.9
13.3
1.2
3.4
6.9
5.5
3.8
12.5
1.0
2.9
17.1
17.9
21.4
20.7
21.2
21.7
15.8
17.7
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
32
1.5
29.0
1.7
25.0
2.1
25.0
1.3
Leverage Ratio
Net Debt / Equity (x)
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / BOE (in USD, 1P basis)
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
2011
19,019
383,913
402,932
26,782
5,750
435,465
2012
19,026
445,126
464,152
0
6,876
471,027
2013E
19,026
527,800
546,826
0
11,643
558,468
2014E
19,026
598,834
617,860
0
9,623
627,483
Net Fixed Assets
59,236
Prod. Proper.(net ofdeple.)20,850
Capital WIP
39,819
Goodwill
253,193
Investments
10,945
Deferred tax assets
138
Inventory
3,277
Debtors
14,829
Cash & Bank Balance
44,847
Loans&Adv. and Other CA 16,655
Liabilities
12,638
Provisions
16,628
Net Current Assets
50,342
Misc. Expenses
943
435,465
61,582
54,101
10,318
253,193
18,356
138
60,678
42,329
51,209
253,193
18,356
138
99,485
33,557
45,963
253,193
18,356
138
Y/E March
Profit /(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Other op activities
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital
2011
68,900
12,226
4,860
-12,592
-10,088
63,306
2012
84,235
14,403
14,801
-15,544
4,031
101,925
2013E
117,031
20,175
10,030
-10,007
1,437
138,666
2014E
104,761
22,422
5,246
-14,666
0
117,762
5,389
10,419
70,933
16,655
7,173
11,954
131,595
16,655
7,401
12,335
175,820
16,655
Other In activities
-25,648
-24,004
903
-48,749
-23,488
-7,411
0
-30,899
-53,471
0
0
-53,471
-52,457
0
0
-52,457
14,370
16,628
72,397
943
471,027
19,127
16,628
131,622
943
558,468
19,736
16,628
175,848
943
627,483
Change in Equity
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Other fin, activities
Dividends Paid
670
-7,255
-2,071
0
-8,656
7
-26,782
0
-18,165
-44,940
0
0
0
-24,533
-24,533
0
0
0
-21,079
-21,079
53.5
105
173
93
11
52.0
100
200
88
13
Closing Balance
Bank deposit adj
Closing Balance
5,902
6,367
12,269
32,578
44,847
26,086
12,045
38,132
32,802
70,933
60,662
70,933
131,595
0
131,595
44,225
131,595
175,820
0
175,820
Exchange rate (USD/INR)
45.6
Brent (USD/bbl)
87
Rajasthan gross prod. (kbpd) 99
Rajasthan net reali. (USD/bbl)76
Disc.(Rajasthan Crude-USD/bbl)12
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
47.9
114
128
104
9
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
37
CESC
Company description
Key risk
CESC, an RP Sanjiv Goenka Group Company, is one of
the oldest integrated power utilities in India with
presence in generation, distribution and mining. Its
installed generation capacity stands at 1.2GW and
distribution network encompasses 2.5m consumers in
Kolkata and Howrah region. 1.2GW of generation
projects are under construction and additional 5.9GW
of projects are in pipeline. CESC has presence in retail
business with ~1msf area in operation under the brand
Spencer's.

Continued losses at Spencer's and funding through
standalone cash flows of CESC. Economic slowdown
could have a bearing on revival of Spencer's.
 Fuel availability and tariff/structure PPA for balance
(0.8GW) open capacity of the 1.2GW of projects
under construction.
 Possible funding gap if the development on Orissa
/ Chattisgarh project has to commence in near term.
Committee of Secretaries (CoS) recommended 51%
FDI in multi-brand retail. Cabinet approval awaited.
 Improvement in cash losses at Spencer's and
improvement in store level EBITDA.
 Improved visibility return for 1.2GW of project
based on PPA and Fuel sourcing.






Assured return from existing generation and
distribution business provides steady cash flow at
INR4b+ p.a.
Recent multi-year tariff order improves visibility on
capex till FY14 and hence, on core profit growth.
CESC has spent INR8.3b towards under construction
projects of 1.2GW and has initiated development
activity for further generation projects of 5.9GW.
Restructuring at Spencer's has led to improvement
in gross margins and reduction in EBITDA losses to
INR1.5b in FY12 v/s INR1.7b in FY11. Store level
EBITDA has further improved to INR42/sft/mth in
1QFY13 v/s INR26 in 1QFY12. Further reduction in
losses / value unlocking would be key positive.
CESC has cash/liquid investment of INR10b, which
along with regulated profit of INR4b pa provides
near term growth capital.
Stock info
CESC IN
125
312
0.7
320 / 186
1 / 11 / -1
38
CESC's 1QFY13 PAT stood in-line with estimate.
Store revenue growth and higher store EBITDA for
Spencer was key positive.
 Tariff Approval for the period of FY12-14 received
for Kolkata Distribution business; capex of INR19b
over FY12-14E approved; RoE increased by 1.5%.
 Consolidation continues at Spencer's with closure
of 19 Small Express Stores. 1QFY13 store level
EBITDA stood at INR42/sft/mth, up from INR26 YoY.
 CESC targets to reduce Spencer's cash losses by
INR400m in FY13E.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
52.5
16.0
18.4
13.1
Mar-12
52.5
16.8
17.9
12.9
Jun-11
52.5
18.0
17.9
11.6
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11
12,410
Change (%)
7.9
12.3
EBITDA
2,671
2,600
Change (%)
4.3
-18.2
21.0
Reported PAT
1,111
1,140
Adjusted PAT
1,111
1,140
Change (%)
1.0
-15.6
PAT Margin (%)
9.4
9.2
Plant PLF (%)
94.9
91.8
Spencer Area (msf) 0.95
0.99
EBITDA(INR/sft/mth)* 26
31
E: MOSL Estimates; * Spencer Store
(INR Million)
Dec-11
10,320
9.9
2,130
-15.8
20.6
740
740
-32.7
7.2
Mar-12
13,790
57.6
4,320
75.6
31.3
2,660
2,510
124.1
18.2
Jun-12
14,200
20.0
2,900
8.6
20.4
1,250
1,250
12.5
8.8
FY12
45,930
12.2
11,570
7.8
25.2
5,500
5,500
17.8
12.0
FY13E
52,527
14.4
12,426
7.4
23.7
5,970
5,970
8.5
11.4
86.5
1.01
35
76.6
1.00
n.a.
96.4
0.97
43
88
1.00
32
92.5
1.17
n.a.
August 27 - 31, 2012
CESC: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Total Revenues
40,942
EBITDA
10,047
% of Total Revenues
24.5
Depreciation
2,674
Interest
2,755
Other Income
1,524
PBT
6,142
Tax
1,259
Rate (%)
20.5
Reported PAT
4,870
Adjusted PAT
4,670
Change (%)
7.8
Excl Spencers; fully diluted
2012
46,050
10,822
23.5
2,900
2,758
1,769
6,933
1,390
20.0
5,543
5,543
18.7
Balance Sheet
2013E
52,527
11,706
22.3
3,171
2,982
1,914
7,467
1,497
20.0
5,970
5,970
7.7
2014E
58,139
12,352
21.2
3,323
3,044
2,348
8,333
1,671
20.0
6,662
6,662
11.6
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves and Surplus
Revaluations Reserves
Share Holder Funds
2011
1,256
41,787
12,650
55,692
2012
1,256
47,304
11,558
60,118
2013E
1,256
52,558
10,980
64,794
2014E
1,256
58,505
10,431
70,191
LT Borrowings
Advance against Depn.
Consumer Security Dep.
Other LT Liabilities
LT Provisions
Non Current Liabilities
21,529
5,143
9,355
7,423
673
44,122
21,671
5,660
10,509
7,997
893
46,730
26,904
5,660
11,034
7,997
982
52,577
29,781
5,660
11,586
7,997
1,080
56,104
ST Borrowings
4,897
Trade Payables
2,803
Other Current Liabilities 9,084
Current Liabilities
17,506
Total Equity & Liab.
117,321
4,328
2,910
12,305
20,427
127,274
3,895
3,515
13,223
21,641
139,012
3,505
3,890
14,029
22,541
148,836
Fixed Assets
77,355
Non Current Investments 8,543
Non Current Assets
86,855
Current Investments
2,300
Inventories
2,944
Trade Receivables
5,589
8,388
ST Loan and Advances
10,908
336
Current Assets
30,466
Total Assets
117,321
80,915
10,482
92,142
850
2,947
9,770
8,598
12,215
752
35,132
127,274
83,700
13,583
98,028
850
3,137
10,619
12,105
13,415
857
40,984
139,012
86,843
16,783
104,372
850
2,965
10,578
14,707
14,415
949
44,464
148,836
2013E
6,603
27,379
11,312
12,293
1,225
2014E
6,466
29,602
14,412
13,293
1,825
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS *
CEPS
Book Value
DPS
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
38.9
60.2
342.7
4.0
10.2
44.1
67.2
386.6
5.0
11.3
47.5
72.8
428.5
5.0
10.5
53.0
79.5
475.8
5.0
9.4
8.0
5.5
1.3
0.9
1.3
7.1
5.2
1.2
0.8
1.6
6.6
4.9
1.1
0.7
1.6
5.9
4.6
1.0
0.7
1.6
RoE
RoCE
11.3
10.2
12.1
10.6
11.7
10.4
11.7
10.2
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
55
86
55.2
82
67
0.6
74
61
0.7
66
55
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.6
2011
6,142
2,674
2,755
1,259
-832
9,480
9,480
2012
6,933
2,900
2,758
1,390
-1,336
9,865
9,865
2013E
7,467
3,171
2,982
1,497
-2,467
9,656
9,656
2014E
8,333
3,323
3,044
1,671
-2,445
10,584
10,584
(Inc)/dec in FA
-5,070
(Pur)/Sale of Investments -4,058
CF from Investments
-9,127
-3,561
-1,939
-5,499
-2,785
-3,102
-5,886
-3,143
-3,200
-6,343
(Inc)/Dec in Net Worth
-557
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
2,039
(Inc)/Dec in Custo. Secu. Dep.390
Less: Interest Paid
2,755
Dividend Paid
581
-3,163
-690
-1,174
-1,154
2,758
716
-4,156
0
-5,233
-525
2,982
716
-263
0
-2,876
-552
3,044
716
-1,639
210
8,388
8,598
3,507
8,598
12,105
2,602
12,105
14,707
Valuation (x)
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
PBT before EO Items
Add: Depreciation
Interest
Less : Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
CF from Op. incl EOI
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
-2,810
11,198
8,388
Y/E March
Capex
Regulated Equity
Infra Investments
Spencer Investments
Installed Capacity (MW)
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
5,500
23,303
7,161
10,029
1,225
2012
6,238
24,834
8,261
11,093
1,225
39
DB Corp
Company description

D B Corp (DBCL), one of the largest print media
companies of India, publishes 8 newspapers with
65 editions and 199 sub editions in 4 languages
(Hindi, Gujarati, English and Marathi) across 13 states
in India.
 Flagship newspapers Dainik Bhaskar (in Hindi)
established in 1958, Divya Bhaskar and Saurashtra
Samachar (in Gujarati) have a combined readership
of ~19 million.
 Other business interests include (1) the radio
segment through the brand "My FM" Radio station
with presence in 7 states and 17 cities, and (2) a
strong online presence in internet portals.

Relatively lower average cover price at INR2.5 for
DB Corp acts as a competitive barrier.
Key challenges
Lower ad spends led by macro slowdown.
 Newsprint cost inflation; INR depreciation resulting
in higher cost of newsprint.
 EBITDA losses in emerging editions.

Break-even of Jharkhand and Maharashtra business.
 Improvement in macro factors.
 Potential moderation in the newsprint prices.


DBCL is the only media conglomerate to enjoy
leadership position in multiple states, in multiple
languages. It is a dominant player in all its major
markets.
 EBITDA margin in mature editions remains healthy
at ~30% despite significant slowdown in ad
revenues led by lower GDP growth.
 With most of the launches related to Maharashtra
entry already through, we expect EBITDA loss in
emerging editions to peak out and start reversing.
 While national advertising remains under pressure,
local growth has continued to be strong.


Stock info
DBCL IN
183
187
0.6
253 / 170
-12 / -6 / -31
40




Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others

Revenue improved 7% YoY and 5% QoQ to INR3.77b.
Ad revenue remained flat YoY at INR2.7b; Circulation
revenue grew 15% YoY to INR656m.
EBITDA declined 24% YoY to INR765m, primarily due
to sluggish revenue growth.
EBITDA margin declined ~800bp YoY to 20.3%.
PAT declined 29% YoY to INR437m.
Raw material cost as a percentage of revenue
increased ~200bp QoQ to 35.3%. Newsprint costs
increased by ~13% YoY led by ~6% increase in
volumes as well as pricing.
Management expects newsprint tonnage growth to
be in low single digits in FY13.
Jun-12
81.5
6.3
8.2
4.0
Mar-12
86.4
4.7
4.9
4.0
Jun-11
86.5
3.5
8.7
1.3
Y/E March
Jun-11
Revenue
3,537
YoY Change (%)
18.4
EBITDA
1,003
YoY Change(%)
-11.7
EBITDA Margin (%)
28.4
Adjusted PAT
611
YoY Change (%)
-12.1
PAT Margin (%)
17.3
Ad growth (%)
20.3
Circulation revenue growth (%) 5.8
RM cost (INR b)
1.2
YoY (%)
42.3
% of revenue
33.5
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
3,539
17.6
771
-18.9
21.8
403
-26.9
11.4
Dec-11
3,956
13.6
1,018
-11.3
25.7
554
-16.1
14.0
Mar-12
3,606
13.6
757
-4.9
21.0
454
0.8
12.6
Jun-12
3,770
6.6
765
-23.8
20.3
437
-28.5
11.6
FY12
14,638
15.7
3,550
-11.9
24.3
2,021
-11.9
13.8
15.6
13.0
1.2
38.2
35.2
8.2
17.0
1.4
26.9
34.1
5.4
16.1
1.3
24.9
36.1
-0.2
15.5
1.3
12.5
35.3
12.1
12.9
5.1
32.3
34.7
August 27 - 31, 2012
DB Corp: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY (%)
Operating expenses
Printing and other exp
Employee Cost
Administrative exp
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Tax rate (%)
PAT
Minority Interest
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Extra-ordinary items
Reported PAT
(INR Million)
2009
9,610
11.4
8,137
4,075
1,331
2,731
1,473
15.3
290
510
109
781
423
54.2
358
-118
476
-37
0
476
2010
10,630
10.6
7,200
3,279
1,318
2,604
3,429
32.3
378
357
112
2,806
1,057
37.7
1,749
-79
1,828
284
0
1,828
Balance Sheet
2011
12,652
19.0
8,621
3,839
1,846
2,937
4,031
31.9
433
153
123
3,569
1,273
35.7
2,296
3
2,293
25
273
2,566
2012
14,638
15.7
11,088
5,080
2,429
3,579
3,550
24.3
506
155
115
3,004
982
32.7
2,022
2
2,021
-12
0
2,021
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Share Premium
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Minority Interest
Deffered Tax Liability
Capital Employed
2009
1,688
0
889
2,577
5,631
124
393
8,724
2010
1,828
2,366
2,293
6,487
3,207
44
609
10,347
2011
1,862
2,373
4,054
8,289
2,372
4
695
11,359
2012
1,862
2,373
5,356
9,590
2,130
15
746
12,482
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
4,695
932
3,763
2,708
238
7,165
1,305
5,861
614
205
8,408
1,729
6,678
680
163
9,487
2,235
7,252
681
460
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
3,988
711
1,774
452
1,052
5,614
722
1,934
1,951
1,008
5,918
728
2,401
1,731
1,058
6,945
1,186
2,481
1,884
1,394
2,189
Creditors
1,817
Provisions and other Liab. 372
Net Current Assets
1,799
Miscellanous exp
217
8,724
E: MOSL Estimates
2,073
1,706
367
3,542
126
10,347
2,189
1,648
541
3,729
110
11,359
2,962
2,442
520
3,983
106
12,482
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) (%)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2.8
-37.3
4.5
16.0
0.5
21
10.1
257.0
12.2
36.0
2.0
23
12.6
24.8
14.9
45.5
4.0
37
11.0
-12.3
13.8
52.4
4.0
42
Valuation
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
65.8
40.9
24.8
3.8
11.6
0.3
18.4
15.3
10.2
3.3
5.2
1.1
14.8
12.4
8.6
2.7
4.1
2.2
16.8
13.5
9.6
2.3
3.5
2.2
RoE
RoCE
18.5
9.2
39.6
20.7
30.9
24.6
22.6
17.8
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
67
27
82
1.5
66
25
86
1.3
69
21
70
1.5
62
30
80
1.5
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
2009
1,473
109
-510
-377
161
856
2010
3,429
112
-357
-841
-153
2,190
2011
4,305
123
-153
-1,187
-346
2,741
2012
3,550
115
-155
-931
37
2,616
(inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP
-3,138
(Pur)/Sale of Investments -170
CF from Inv.Activity
-3,308
-382
33
-350
-1,316
42
-1,274
-1,080
-297
-1,378
Issue of Shares
0
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
2,195
Dividends Paid
-99
0
2,096
2,506
-2,424
-424
0
-341
41
-835
-849
-43
-1,687
0
-242
-854
10
-1,085
1,499
452
1,951
-220
1,951
1,730
153
1,731
1,884
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
EBITDA
Other Income
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap.
CF from Op.Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
-356
808
452
41
Dewan Housing Finance
Company description
Dewan Housing Finance (DEWH) focuses on providing
housing loans to low and middle income households in
rural and semi-urban areas. It scores higher in terms of
competitive pricing from money lenders and cooperative banks. As on June 2012, DEWH was present
across 450+ locations at a group level and has
consolidated AUM of ~INR290b.
With the acquisition of DPHFL (now renamed as First
Blue Housing Finance Ltd.), DEWH is present across
the spectrum in the housing finance market right
from the low-end consumer to the affluent class. It
is growing at a rapid pace and grabbing market share
across segments.
 DEWH has been maintaining high standards in asset
quality despite being present in low and middle
income group. As on June 2012, its %GNPA was only
90bp and %NNPA at 13bp. While sharp rise in
interest rates and strong growth in the near term
raises concerns over asset quality, impeccable asset
quality track record across cycles provides comfort.
 DEWH has historically maintained its margins in a
narrow band of 2.8-3.0%. While margins remained
under pressure in FY12 due to steep increase in
interest rates, management expects to maintain
margins in the similar band going forward.
 DEWH targets to increase the share of high yielding
projects loans (currently at ~6% levels), which would

Stock info
DEWH IN
117
162
0.3
279 / 142
-7 / -34 / -25
42
Key challenges
With standalone debt / equity of more than 9x, the
company may have to raise capital in near future.
However, uncertain market conditions may act as a
deterrent, thereby affecting growth.
 Banks and other NBFCs getting aggressive in the
housing finance space may check DEWH's rapid
growth trajectory.

Interest rates have peaked, and rate cut by the RBI,
if any, would augur well for DEWH.
 High Court and other approvals for First Blue merger.

DEWH's 1QFY13 PAT grew 18% YoY and 13% QoQ, inline with estimates.
 Loans grew strongly by 39% YoY and 10% QoQ,
reported margins remained largely stable
sequentially at ~2.8% levels.
 GNPAs in absolute terms increased 50% QoQ ,
seasonal in nature. PCR remained healthy at 86%.
 For FY13, the management expects loan growth of
25-30%, margins to remain stable at 2.8-3.0%, and
asset quality also to remain healthy.

Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
augur well from the margin perspective for the
company.
Jun-12
35.2
1.0
42.3
21.6
Mar-12
35.2
0.8
43.7
20.2
Jun-11
39.3
8.7
34.3
17.7
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Interest Income 4,972
YoY Gr. (%)
66.6
Operating Profit
907
YoY Gr. (%)
36.1
Provisions
33
PBT
874
Tax
216
Profit after Tax
658
YoY Gr. (%)
28.4
Key Operating Metrics
Loan Gr. (%)
56.7
Borrowings Gr. (%) 55.9
Cost to Inc. Ratio (%) 34.2
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
5,886
78.2
983
27.0
116
867
148
719
23.9
Dec-11
6,615
71.3
1,138
40.4
150
988
238
750
21.4
Mar-12
7,205
65.8
1,193
36.4
(62)
1,255
317
938
59.9
Jun-12
7,385
48.5
1,196
31.9
150
1,046
268
778
18.2
FY12
3,816
28.6
3,936
24.9
237
3,984
920
3,064
15.6
FY13E
6,747
76.8
5,907
50.1
582
5,325
1,385
3,941
28.6
50.7
61.7
38.5
49.8
50.8
37.8
37.2
28.9
40.3
39.5
38.6
36.0
37.2
28.9
38.7
44.6
47.6
35.4
August 27 - 31, 2012
Dewan Housing Finance: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Operating Income
Interest Expended
Net Interest Income
Change (%)
Fee Income
Treasury Income
Other Income
Net Income
Change (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Profits
Change (%)
Provisions
% of average loans
Extra ordinary Income
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Minority Interest
PAT Post MI
Change (%)
Proposed Dividend
2011
18,456
13,901
4,555
35.1
1,495
987
90
7,126
48.2
2,562
4,564
49.5
214
0.15
354
4,705
1,131
24.0
3,574
125.6
3,220
103.3
283
2,937
89.5
521
(INR Million)
2012
28,633
23,496
5,138
28.6
2,395
610
275
8,418
34.3
3,349
5,069
24.9
463
0.20
250
4,857
1,304
26.9
3,553
-0.6
3,303
2.6
315
2,987
1.7
478
2013E
38,829
29,966
8,863
76.8
1,834
1,250
211
12,158
42.4
4,622
7,536
50.1
764
0.25
0
6,772
1,961
29.0
4,811
35.4
4,811
45.7
403
4,408
47.6
692
2012
1,168
19,047
20,215
246,717
19.2
268,859
2,141
-46.8
254,694
27.8
2,582
3,495
5,947
268,859
2013E
1,168
22,863
24,032
348,180
41.1
374,543
5,228
65.5
352,656
38.5
2,680
3,150
10,829
374,543
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth (Excl Pref sh)
Borrowings
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
1,044
14,512
15,556
206,897
122.3
224,978
6,877
562.7
199,304
117.1
2,354
3,452
12,991
224,978
2014E
51,015
39,354
11,661
35.9
1,981
1,350
232
15,225
28.3
5,581
9,644
30.2
1,231
0.30
0
8,412
2,414
28.7
5,998
24.7
5,998
24.7
491
5,507
25.0
865
(INR Million)
2014E
1,168
27,632
28,800
456,850
31.2
488,473
7,800
32.7
461,783
34.0
2,765
2,805
13,319
488,473
Ratios (Consolidated)
Y/E March
2011
Avg. Yield - Housing loans 12.7
Avg. Cost of Funds
9.3
Int. Spread on Hsg. loans
3.4
Net Interest Margin
3.1
2012
2013E
2014E
12.6
10.4
2.3
2.3
12.8
10.1
2.7
2.9
12.5
9.8
2.8
2.9
RoAE
RoAA
Int. Expended/Int.Earned
Other Inc./Net Income
26.7
2.0
75.3
36.1
18.5
1.3
82.1
39.0
21.7
1.5
77.2
27.1
22.7
1.4
77.1
23.4
Fees/Operating income
Op. Exps./Net Income
32.7
35.9
39.9
47.2
39.8
35.5
24.3
38.0
34.3
20.5
36.7
34.9
Valuations (Consolidated)
Book Value (INR)
149.0
173.0
Price-BV (x)
0.9
Adjusted BV (INR)*
115.9
143.1
Price-ABV (x)
1.1
OPS (INR)
43.7
43.4
Price-OP (x)
3.7
EPS (INR)
28.1
25.6
Growth (%)
48.8
-9.1
Price-Earnings (x)
6.4
Dividend Per Share
3.5
3.5
Dividend Yield (%)
2.2
E: MOSL Estimates * Adj. for Goodwill
205.7
0.8
178.7
0.9
64.5
2.5
37.7
47.6
4.3
5.1
3.1
246.5
0.7
222.5
0.7
82.5
2.0
51.3
36.1
3.2
6.3
3.9
43
Dish TV
Company description
Dish TV is Asia Pacific's largest direct-to-home (DTH)
company and part of the Zee Group. Dish TV has on its
platform more than 400 channels & services with 13.4m
gross subscribers and 9.7m net subscribers as of June
30, 2012. The company has a vast distribution network
of over 1,400 distributors and over 90,000 dealers that
span across 8,000+ towns in India.


Leader in high growth DTH segment.
 We expect 28% EBITDA CAGR for Dish TV over FY1214 led by 18% subscriber CAGR and 4% ARPU CAGR.
 DTH subscriber additions to get boosted by demand
from subscribers expected to transition from analog
systems led by mandatory digitization.
 Mandatory digitization to result in addressability of
subscribers leading to higher costs of content as
well as taxes for cable networks. Potential increase
in cable ARPU can drive ARPU enhancement for DTH
operators like Dish as well.



Successful implementation of mandatory
digitization.
Contract renegotiations with content providers.
Potential increase in subscriber additions in the
festive season.
Competitive discipline post "mandatory
digitization" would be key towards achievement of
continued ARPU up-tick.
Sustenance of current EBITDA margin of ~30%.





Key challenges

Increase in churn rate for the industry.
INR depreciation resulting in higher cost of STB.
 Potential increase in competitive intensity in
markets where digitization is being mandated.
 Possible postponement of digitization deadline.



Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
DITV IN
1,064
73
1.4
87 / 52
2 / 12 / -20
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
44
Dish TV's 1QFY13 EBITDA grew 39% YoY and 8% QoQ
to INR1.56b (v/s estimate of INR1.37b).
While overall revenue declined 1% QoQ to INR5.2b
due to change in lease rental accounting, EBITDA
growth was driven by opex decline.
EBITDA margin improved 250bp QoQ to 29.9%.
EBITDA ex lease rental grew 40% QoQ.
Net loss for the quarter increased 77% YoY but
declined 34% QoQ to INR323m despite higher forex
loss (INR140m v/s INR65m in 4QFY12).
Subs revenue grew 5% QoQ to INR4.6b led by 3%
increase in net sub base to 9.8m and 3% increase in
ARPU to INR156 (highlight of the quarter).
Gross subscriber adds at 0.5m increased 20% QoQ
but was 30% lower YoY. Churn rate (based on net
subscribers) remained steady at 1% per month.
Jun-12
64.8
5.0
23.4
6.9
Mar-12
64.8
5.4
22.4
7.4
Jun-11
64.8
6.2
22.3
6.7
Y/E March
Jun-11
Revenue
4,604
YoY Change(%)
51.3
EBITDA
1,122
YoY Change(%)
248.5
Adjusted PAT
-183
YoY Change(%)
-71.0
PAT Margin(%)
-4.0
Gross adds (m)
0.7
Net subs (m)
8.9
Net adds (m)
0.4
ARPU (INR/month)
150
Monthly churn (%)
1.1
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
4,822
47.8
1,217
144.5
25.2
-487
7.7
-10.1
Dec-11
4,905
31.4
1,202
80.2
24.5
-430
-3.0
-8.8
Mar-12
5,247
21.2
1,442
59.9
27.5
-490
32.4
-9.3
Jun-12
5,200
12.9
1,556
38.7
29.9
-324
76.8
-6.2
FY12
19,578
36.3
4,984
108.7
25.5
-1,588
-16.3
-8.1
FY13E
22,622
15.5
6,296
26.3
27.8
-653
-58.9
-2.9
0.6
9.2
0.3
152
1.2
0.7
9.5
0.3
152
1.6
0.4
9.6
0.2
151
0.9
0.5
9.8
0.2
156
1.0
2.5
9.6
1.1
153
1.2
3.0
11.3
1.7
157
1.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
Dish TV: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
14,366
YoY (%)
32.4
Operating expenses
11,977
Cost of goods and services 7,803
Employee Cost
566
Selling & distribution exps 2,847
Administrative exps
761
EBITDA
2,388
EBITDA margin (%)
16.6
Depreciation
3,654
Interest
1,511
Other Income
880
PBT
-1,897
Adjusted PAT
-1,897
Change (%)
-27.6
Reported PAT
-1,897
2012
19,578
36.3
14,594
9,960
709
2,909
1,016
4,984
25.5
5,180
1,778
386
-1,588
-1,588
-16.3
-1,588
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Share Premium
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
2013E
22,622
15.5
16,326
11,182
833
3,371
940
6,296
27.8
5,939
1,442
432
-653
-653
NA
-653
2014E
28,197
24.6
19,984
13,557
983
4,449
994
8,213
29.1
7,024
1,426
550
314
314
-148.0
314
(INR Million)
2011
1,063
15,314
-15,750
628
10,763
11,390
2012
1,064
15,314
-17,316
-938
12,144
11,205
2013E
1,064
15,314
-17,969
-1,592
12,208
10,616
2014E
1,064
15,314
-17,655
-1,278
14,303
13,026
23,520
9,883
13,637
4,580
2,002
29,668
15,063
14,605
3,483
1,500
38,120
21,002
17,118
3,500
1,500
48,725
28,026
20,699
3,500
1,500
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
-1.8
-44.1
1.7
0.6
-1.5
-16.3
3.4
-0.9
-0.6
-58.9
5.0
-1.5
0.3
-148.0
6.9
-1.2
NA
21.6
16.9
30.4
4.3
NA
8,751
159
NA
14.7
13.4
19.7
3.7
NA
7,428
135
247.2
10.6
10.3
14.6
3.0
NA
6,141
111
Valuation
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (ex. lease rent.)
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
EV/net subscriber (INR)
EV/net subscriber (USD)
RoE
RoCE
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.5
NA
10.4
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
5
1
380
2.5
5
1
253
3.3
5
1
284
4.1
5
1
275
5.3
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
NA
NA
NA
NA
Cash Flow Statement
Curr. Assets
6,649
Inventory
44
Debtors
215
Cash & Bank Balance
3,202
Loans & Advances
3,188
15,478
Creditors
12,471
Provisions & other liab.
3,007
Net Current Assets
-8,829
11,390
Gross subscribers (m)
10
YoY (%)
51
Gross adds (m)
3.5
YoY (%)
93
Net subscribers (m)
8.5
YoY (%)
50
Net adds (m)
2.8
YoY (%)
106
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
6,752
69
286
3,851
2,546
15,135
10,136
4,999
-8,382
11,205
7,083
79
331
4,000
2,673
18,585
12,712
5,873
-11,502
10,616
9,318
99
412
6,000
2,807
21,991
15,060
6,931
-12,673
13,026
13
24
2.5
-30
9.6
13
1.1
-60
16
23
3.0
22
11.3
18
1.7
51
20
25
4.0
33
13.7
21
2.4
40
Y/E March
Op.Profit/(Loss) bef Tax
Other Income
Interest Paid
CF from Op.Activity
(INR Million)
2011
2,388
880
-1,511
3,371
5,129
2012
4,984
386
-1,778
225
3,817
2013E
6,296
432
-1,442
3,268
8,554
2014E
8,213
550
-1,426
3,171
10,509
-9,470
504
-8,966
-5,050
502
-4,549
-8,470
0
-8,470
-10,604
0
-10,604
33
1,585
1,617
1
1,381
1,382
0
64
64
0
2,096
2,096
-2,220
5,422
3,202
650
3,202
3,851
149
3,851
4,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Closing Balance
45
DLF
Company description
Key challenges
DLF, one of the largest and most respected real estate
companies in India, has developed many well known
urban colonies in Gurgaon, Delhi including South
Extension, Greater Kailash, Kailash Colony and Hauz
Khas. Since inception, DLF has developed ~240msf, and
an integrated 3,000-acre township in Gurgaon, called
DLF City. The company holds 345msf land bank with
almost 80% concentrated in super metros and metros.

DLF's gross debt stood at to INR250b, while net debt
at INR236b, implying net DER of 0.91x.
 Cost of debt increased to 12.75% as against 10.5%
18 months back.
 Overall macro challenges impacting real estate
sector.
The company has made meaningful progress in
asset sales through divesting NTC Mill land (INR27b)
against a target of INR50-60b in FY13.
 Improvement in operations, launch of super
premium project in Gurgaon, progress in other asset
sales are near-term triggers.

DLF is uniquely positioned to leverage long-term
opportunities in India. It has a significant presence
in key cities and market leadership across segments.
 Recently adopted operating strategy to combat
prevailing challenges, without sacrificing longer
term growth is a key positive: (1) Focus on premium
and plotted segment to mitigate inflations and
maintain profitability (2) Ramp-up execution with
third party contractors to augment delivery and cash
cycle (3) Consolidating land parcels at
outperforming NCR markets, and (4) Value creations
through infrastructure developments around
existing land parcels
 Sincere effort to asset divestments and higher
visibility in large ticket deals would be key trigger
to de-leveraging

Stock info
DLFU IN
1,714.4
215
6.6
261/170
3/-8/-8
46
DLF posted a subdued sales performance in 1QFY13.
It sold 1.34msf (estimated sales value of ~INR6b) v/
s 6.8msf (INR26b) in 4QFY12 and 2.2msf (INR11b) in
1QFY12.
 However the management has guided for INR65b
of sales in FY13 on the back of new launch plan in
2HFY13. Leasing volume remain weak at 2msf owing
to weaker demand and several cancellations over
FY12.
 Targets to reduce debt by INR50b by FY13 led by
divestments.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap. (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
78.6
0.3
15.8
5.3
Mar-12
78.6
0.3
15.6
5.5
Jun-11
78.6
0.4
15.1
5.9
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11 Dec-11
25,324
20,344
Change (%)
20.6
6.9
(18.0)
EBITDA
11,110
11,730
8,227
Change (%)
13.4
26.3
-30.2
46.3
40.4
Reported PAT
3,584
3,724
2,584
Adjusted PAT
3,584
3,724
2,584
Change (%)
(12.8)
(11.0)
(44.5)
PAT Margin (%)
14.7
14.7
12.7
Sales volume (msf)
2.2
1.3
3.3
Sales value (INR b)
11.0
6.0
9.6
Leasing volume (msf)
0.73 0.21
0.22
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Mar-12
26,168
-2.5
7,976
19.7
30.5
2,117
2,117
(38.6)
8.1
Jun-12
21,977
-10.1
10,670
-4.0
48.6
2,928
2,928
(18.3)
13.3
FY12
96,294
0.7
39,043
4.0
40.5
12,008
12,008
(26.8)
12.5
FY13E
105,281
9.3
44,083
12.9
41.9
13,843
13,843
15.3
13.1
6.8
25.8
0.25
1.3
6.0
0.29
13.5
52.7
1.41
10.5
60.0
1.8
August 27 - 31, 2012
DLF: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
95,606
28.8
37,527
39.3
6,307
17,056
5,839
20,002
4,594
23.0
16,396
-5.2
2012
2013E
2014E
96,294 105,281 107,880
0.7
9.3
2.5
39,043 44,083 45,116
40.5
41.9
41.8
6,888
7,311
7,703
22,465
23,265
20,015
5,945
4,722
4,429
15,635 18,229 21,828
3,694
4,740
5,675
23.6
26.0
26.0
12,008 13,843 16,542
-26.8
15.3
19.5
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Equity Capital
Preference Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Minority Interest
Capital Employed
2011
3,394
13,960
245,967
263,321
239,906
5,752
508,979
2012
3,394
13,850
255,114
272,359
250,660
4,207
527,225
Goodwill
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
13,840
16,248
16,248
16,248
198,277 212,949 217,096 223,054
19,556
25,809
33,120
40,822
178,721 187,140 183,976 182,232
102,344 89,928 100,925 103,198
9,958
11,268
11,268
11,268
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Inventory
Loans and Advances
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
452,069
150,388
17,536
13,218
150,388
41,664
78,875
99,199
92,249
6,950
202,482
508,979
487,718
161,756
19,100
15,063
161,756
51,741
78,302
106,671
98,639
8,032
219,291
527,225
2013E
3,394
13,850
264,986
282,230
224,133
4,207
510,570
2014E
3,394
13,850
277,556
294,801
201,719
4,207
500,727
467,260
156,222
19,731
10,906
156,222
53,706
70,472
116,234
108,203
8,032
194,804
510,570
462,018
150,800
21,359
12,690
150,800
55,898
70,472
126,786
118,754
8,032
184,432
500,727
2013E
53
11
12
20
213
2014E
58
12
12
22
189
Y/E March
Sales (INR b)*
Sales volume (msf)
Delivery (msf)
Annuity income (INR b)
Net debt (INR b)
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
67
10
7
15
227
2012
52
14
13
18
236
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
9.7
-5.2
12.8
147.0
0.9
11.0
7.1
-26.8
11.0
150.9
2.0
33.1
8.2
15.3
12.3
156.7
2.0
28.7
9.7
19.5
14.1
164.1
2.0
24.0
30.7
19.8
15.2
6.2
1.4
0.9
26.7
17.8
13.0
5.4
1.4
0.9
22.3
15.5
12.2
5.1
1.3
0.9
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
5.8
7.1
4.5
7.4
5.0
8.0
5.7
8.3
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
Inc/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
2011
20,002
6,307
17,056
4,594
13,260
25,511
2012
15,475
6,888
22,465
3,694
14,964
26,170
2013E
18,229
7,311
23,265
4,740
-20,331
64,293
2014E
21,828
7,703
20,015
5,675
-12,155
55,912
CF from Investments
31,286
-6,842
-15,143
-8,231
(Inc)/Dec in Networth
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Less : Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
-58,114
23,139
17,056
1,803
-53,833
1,000
10,754
22,465
3,971
-14,682
0
-26,527
23,265
3,971
-53,764
0
-22,413
20,015
3,971
-46,400
3,936
9,282
13,218
1,845
13,218
15,063
-4,156
15,063
10,907
1,784
10,906
12,690
Cash Flow Statement
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
47
Emami
Company description
Key challenges
Emami is a unique player in the personal and healthcare
space, with a strong herbal positioning. It has
established leadership in niche categories like Cooling
Oil (~49%), Antiseptic Cream (~75%), Men's fairness
cream (~60%) and Pain Balm (~57%). Emami derives
~14% of its revenues through exports with key regions
being Middle East, Africa and SAARC.

Volatile prices in Mentha oil, LLP (two largest inputs)
and other crude related inputs are key risks to
margins.
 Increasing competition in Cooling oils from
domestic hair oil players (Marico, Bajaj Corp) and in
Men's fairness from MNCs (Hindustan Unilever,
L'Oreal, and Nivea) could impact growth and market
shares.
Emami enjoys strong leadership position in its 4 key
categories (Cooling oil, Balm, Men's fairness cream
and Antiseptic cream); it continues to post strong
double-digit sales growth in these categories.
 High level of innovations and focus on the acquired
OTC portfolio (of erstwhile Zandu) will further
accelerate volume growth.
 International business growth has been robust and
with setting up manufacturing in key markets of
Bangladesh and Middle East, profitability is also
likely to improve.
 Strong balance sheet with little debt as of FY12
provides room for inorganic foray.

Stock info
HMN IN
151
476
1.3
553 / 318
-7 / 26 / -6
48
Growth and market shares in Cooling oil and Men's
fairness categories which have seen new entrants.
 Aggressive acquisition intent in the domestic
market; high deal multiples could be a key risk.
 Softening of crude prices can boost profit margins
(70% of input costs are crude linked).

In 1QFY13, Navaratna sales were up ~60% YoY, Talcs
grew ~60% YoY, Boroplus cream grew ~70% YoY, and
Fair & Handsome (flat growth yoy), and OTC
products (up ~24%, led by Zandu Pancharishta).
 PAT grew 24% YoY to INR495m (INR398m in 1QFY12).

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
72.7
4.0
14.9
8.4
Mar-12
72.7
3.5
15.0
8.7
Jun-11
72.7
3.2
15.0
9.1
Y/E March
Operating Income
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
PAT Margin (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Jun-12
2,843
22.9
732
71.0
25.8
398
398
7.0
14.0
Sep-12
2,969
13.2
826
-9.6
27.8
500
500
-11.7
16.8
Dec-12
4,465
13.2
1,468
15.5
32.9
1,013
1,013
23.6
22.7
Mar-12
3,768
15.2
1,124
17.4
29.8
656
718
53.4
19.0
Jun-13
3,310
16.4
872
19.1
26.3
495
495
24.1
14.9
FY12
14,044
15.6
4,149
16.2
29.5
2,568
2,630
18.1
18.7
August 27 - 31, 2012
Emami: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
COGS
Gross Profit
Gross Margin (%)
Operating expenses
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Financial Other Income
Profit before Taxes
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Non-rec. (Exp)/Income
Reported PAT
(INR Million)
2009
7,474
30.5
2,671
4,803
64.3
3,528
1,275
33.8
17.1
84
227
94
1,059
0.9
14.2
118
23
13.3
919
-1.0
12.3
0
919
2010
10,217
36.7
3,805
6,412
62.8
3,960
2,452
92.3
24.0
154
210
83
2,171
105.0
21.2
342
10
16.2
1,798
95.7
17.6
121
1,697
2011
12,590
23.2
5,232
7,358
58.4
4,824
2,534
3.4
20.1
140
-112
185
2,691
24.0
21.4
337
67
15.0
2,287
27.2
18.2
0
2,287
2009
131
2,881
3,013
0
4,482
60
7,554
2010
151
6,103
6,254
0
2,591
70
8,914
2011
151
6,747
6,898
1
2,294
137
9,330
2012
151
7,675
7,827
8
1,994
150
9,978
Goodwill on consolidation
0
Gross Block
7,067
Less: Accum. Depn.
940
Net Fixed Assets
6,128
Capital WIP
367
Investments
393
0
7,638
2,027
5,611
62
616
8
7,993
3,148
4,845
65
66
77
8,593
4,336
4,257
0
367
Curr. Assets, L&A
Inventory
Account Receivables
Others
Account Payables
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
E: MOSL Estimates
4,247
826
755
1,614
1,051
1,621
890
37
695
2,625
8,914
5,997
1,234
1,089
2,105
1,570
1,651
883
34
733
4,347
9,330
7,238
1,401
1,306
2,992
1,538
1,961
1,089
1
871
5,277
9,978
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Loans
Deferred Liability
Capital Employed
August 27 - 31, 2012
2012
15,121
20.1
6,618
8,503
56.2
5,631
2,871
13.3
19.0
167
-141
235
3,080
14.5
20.4
412
-67
11.2
2,735
19.6
18.1
0
2,735
(INR Million)
2,430
738
710
141
840
1,764
1,201
68
494
666
7,554
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
2009
2010
2011
2012
7.0
7.6
22.9
2.7
43.4
11.9
12.9
41.3
3.0
29.5
15.1
16.0
45.6
3.5
27.0
18.1
19.2
51.7
4.5
29.0
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
68.0
62.4
8.9
52.1
20.7
0.6
40.1
36.9
7.1
29.5
11.5
0.6
31.5
29.7
5.7
28.5
10.4
0.7
26.3
24.8
4.7
24.6
9.2
0.9
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
31.1
23.7
38.8
28.9
34.8
28.3
37.1
30.4
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
34
1.4
27
1.2
31
1.4
31
1.6
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
1.3
0.2
0.0
-0.2
2009
1,275
191
-391
-141
831
1,764
2010
2,452
342
-547
-352
-532
1,362
2011
2,534
269
-152
-404
-1,217
1,030
2012
2,871
301
-159
-345
-44
2,624
(Incr)/Decr in FA
-6,242
636
CF from Invest.
-5,606
-266
-223
-489
-358
550
192
-535
-301
-836
7
4,100
-398
247
3,955
3,100
-1,892
-531
-78
599
0
-297
-618
183
-731
0
-300
-794
193
-901
114
28
142
1,473
141
1,614
491
1,614
2,105
887
2,105
2,992
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(loss) before Tax
Int./Div. Received
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
(Incr)/Decr in WC
CF from Operations
Change in Equity
(Incr)/Decr in Debt
Dividend Paid
Others
Incr/Decr of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
49
GAIL (India)
Company description
Key challenges
GAIL (India) is a major public sector undertaking in India,
with interests in gas distribution, petrochemicals, LPG,
and telecom. It owns ~9,500km of natural gas pipelines,
two LPG transmission pipelines of 2,000km, 450,000 tpa
petchem capacity, ~1.4mt LPG/other hydrocarbons
capacity, and over 13,000km of optical fiber cable
network. GAIL is also involved in city gas distribution,
E&P and power businesses through its joint ventures.

Key investment arguments
Capex to increase capacities significantly: GAIL is in
the midst of a high capex cycle, which will increase
its transmission capacity by 1.7x and double its
petchem capacity.
 Incremental gas availability to remain near-term
headwind: While we like management strategy to
build capacity to benefit in the long term, near-term
challenges of incremental gas availability remain.
 Model 1.4% transmission volume CAGR through
FY14: The promise of transmission business growth,
though strong in the long term, there are concerns
in the medium term as ramp-up in Reliance
Industries' KG-D6 gas output has halted.
 Near term pressure on profitability: We believe
GAIL's profitability ratios would be under pressure
for next 2-3 years due to underutilization of new
pipelines. Earnings would be depressed due to
revenue increase not commensurate with increase
in interest and depreciation.

Stock info
GAIL IN
1,268
361
8.2
446 / 303
-2 / -2 / -23
50


Clarity on the subsidy sharing.
Likelihood of transmission volume increase in near
to medium term.





Gas transmission volumes stood at ~110mmsmcd
(-6.3% YoY and 5% QoQ).
Gas trading EBIT was boosted by one-time LNG
inventory gain of ~INR2b.
Petchem EBIT was impacted by lower sales volume
due to capacity shutdown.
GAIL expects its 5mmtpa Dabhol terminal to get
commissioned in 2HFY13.
GAIL expects to complete both its major expansion
projects by December 2013 (1) Pata plant expansion (from 450ktpa to 900ktpa);
(2) Bharamputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd (BCPL).
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
To arrange for incremental gas volumes for its
growing transmission capacity.
 To diversify earnings in view of high and ad hoc
subsidy sharing.
 Pressure on petchem sales volume led by increased
imports in India.
 Likely regulation to cap marketing margins on gas
sales.
Jun-12
64.6
17.7
14.6
3.2
Mar-12
64.6
17.9
14.2
3.3
Jun-11
64.6
18.5
13.8
3.1
Y/E March
Jun-11
Operating Income
89
Change (%)
25.0
EBITDA
16
Change (%)
8
Reported PAT
10
Adjusted PAT
10
Change (%)
11.0
PAT Margin (%)
11.1
Key Metrics (mmscmd)
Gas transmission
117
Petchem sales(000MT)88
Subsidy (INR b)
7
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
97
19.7
16
15
17.0
11
11
18.5
11.3
Dec-11
113
34.6
18
34
15.6
11
11
12.8
9.7
Mar-12
105
17.6
7
-42
7.0
5
5
-38.3
4.6
Jun-12
111
25.0
19
22
17.1
11
11
15.1
10.2
FY12
403
24.1
57
4
14.1
37
37
2.6
9.1
FY13E
439
9.1
64
12
14.6
39
39
5.8
8.8
119
129
6
119
113
5
116
118
14
110
66
7
118
448
32
114
396
32
August 27 - 31, 2012
GAIL India: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
324,586
Change (%)
30.2
Purchases
220,059
Raw Materials
21,788
Change in Stocks
-1,325
Employee Costs
7,527
Power&fuel & other exp. 21,994
EBITDA
54,544
% of Net Sales
16.8
Depreciation
6,503
Interest
829
Other Income
5,186
PBT
52,398
Tax
16,788
Rate (%)
32.0
Reported PAT
35,610
Adjusted PAT
36,408
Change (%)
13.4
2012
402,807
24.1
286,791
24,941
-4,978
6,075
32,997
56,981
14.1
7,907
1,165
5,491
53,400
16,862
31.6
36,538
36,538
2.6
Balance Sheet
2013E
439,439
9.1
270,255
27,209
2,349
6,682
68,937
64,007
14.6
8,954
2,384
3,949
56,618
17,976
31.7
38,642
38,642
5.8
2014E
481,622
9.6
298,606
29,821
0
7,351
73,857
71,988
14.9
11,710
4,968
5,611
60,922
19,162
31.5
41,760
41,760
8.1
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
2011
12,685
179,849
192,533
23,100
16,332
231,966
2012
12,685
203,476
216,160
49,659
18,909
284,729
2013E
12,685
228,613
241,298
117,659
21,174
380,130
2014E
12,685
255,680
268,365
127,659
23,611
419,635
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
221,444
97,408
124,036
58,792
25,825
269,778
105,315
164,463
76,793
25,825
327,137
114,269
212,868
96,544
25,825
453,542
125,979
327,563
39,696
25,825
8,551
19,059
21,314
62,538
14,145
20,764
23,583
64,167
13,696
22,173
48,615
65,892
14,724
24,547
31,632
67,721
47,544
40,605
23,313
231,966
60,473
44,539
17,648
284,728
58,923
46,559
44,893
380,130
63,313
48,760
26,550
419,634
2012
48
32
2013E
54
32
2014E
52
24
118
894
448
114
878
396
121
889
464
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loansand advances
Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Y/E March
2011
Exchange rate
46
Subsidy (INRb)
21
Natural Gas Transmission
Volume (mmsmd)
118
Average Tariff (INR/mscm) 880
Petchem Sales ('000 MT)
420
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout
2011
28.7
33.2
151.8
7.5
26.1
2012
28.8
35.0
170.4
8.70
30.2
2013E
30.5
37.5
190.2
9.0
29.5
2014E
32.9
42.2
211.6
10.0
30.4
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Sales
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
10.1
8.5
6.3
1.2
1.9
2.1
9.8
8.1
6.5
1.0
1.7
2.4
9.3
7.5
6.6
1.0
1.5
2.5
8.6
6.7
6.2
1.0
1.3
2.8
RoE
RoCE
18.5
22.9
16.9
19.2
16.0
15.5
15.6
15.7
Turnover Ratios
21
1.4
19
1.4
18
1.2
19
1.1
Leverage Ratio
Debt / Equity (x)
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.5
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
52,400
53,400
Depreciation
6,504
7,907
Other op items
-873
0
Direct Taxes Paid
-14,839
-14,285
Inc/Dec in Wkg.Capital -12,420
7,935
30,773
54,958
2013E
56,618
8,954
0
-15,711
-2,214
47,646
2014E
60,922
11,710
0
-16,725
1,360
57,267
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP -46,290
Pur/Sale of Investments -5,095
Inc from Invst
4,090
-47,295
-66,336
0
0
-66,336
-77,110
0
0
-77,110
-69,558
0
0
-69,558
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Dividends Paid
7,215
-11,094
-3,879
26,559
-12,911
13,647
68,000
-13,505
54,495
10,000
-14,692
-4,692
-20,402
Add: Opening Balance 41,715
Closing Balance
21,314
2,270
21,314
23,583
25,031
23,583
48,615
-16,983
48,615
31,632
51
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals
Company description
Key challenges
GSK Pharma (a 50% subsidiary of GlaxoSmithKline Plc)
is the fourth largest formulations company in India and
the second largest MNC, with a strong presence in
segments like dermatology, respiratory and vaccines.
Its parent has one of the richest product and R&D
pipelines among pharmaceutical companies
worldwide. Further GSK Pharma's profitability is one of
the best in the industry.


GSK has an excellent branded portfolio and a strong
presence in the dermatology, anti-infective,
respiratory and vaccines segments.
 The parent's strong pipeline holds good upside
potential after IPR implementation, with no conflict
of interest issues with any other subsidiary.
 GSK deserves premium valuations due to strong
parentage (giving access to large product pipeline),
brand-building ability, and likely positioning in
patent era. It is one of the very few companies with
ability to drive reasonable growth without any major
capital requirement leading to high RoCE.
 GSK is likely to sustain double-digit topline growth
over the next few years. Given the high profitability
of its operations, we expect this growth to lead to
sustainable double-digit earnings growth and RoE
of ~30%. This growth is likely to be funded through
miniscule capex and negative net working capital.

Stock info
GLXO IN
85
2,091
3.2
2338 / 1830
-2 / 4 / -8
52
Ability of the company to ramp up its presence in
the high-growth lifestyle segments, which are
negligible contributors as of now.
 Sustained launch of new products - this is
imperative to drive future topline growth.
 Government's progress on the implementation of
the new Pharma Policy.
2QCY12 highlights
Performance was in-line with topline growth of
16.1%, EBITDA growth of 8.4% and Adj PAT growth
of 11.8%. Topline growth was led by dermatology
and vaccine segments. GSK Pharma launched 3 new
products in the quarter.
 EBITDA margins declined 220bp YoY (v/s our
estimate of 60bp decline). Effectively, higher sales
have compensated for lower EBITDA margins.
 Adj PAT growth is higher than EBITDA growth due to
lower depreciation (down 13%) and higher other
income (up 14%).

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
The proposed new "Pharma Policy", if
implemented in the current form will have adverse
impact of 13% on GSK's annualized earnings.
 Possible pre-grant and post-grant patent challenges
by domestic generic companies could hamper the
plans and prospects of the launch of patented
products by GSK Pharma in India
Jun-12
50.7
14.2
18.6
16.6
Mar-12
50.7
14.5
18.5
16.4
Jun-11
50.7
15.9
17.1
16.4
Y/E December
Jun-11
Operating Income
5,615
Change (%)
12.8
EBITDA
1,870
Change (%)
2.9
Reported PAT
1,475
Adjusted PAT
1,517
Change (%)
8.6
PAT Margin (%)
27.0
RM Cost (% of sales) 36.4
Staff Cost (% Chg YoY) 22.5
Other Exp (% of sales) 18.3
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
6,076
4.4
1,760
-15.7
29.0
1,459
1,460
-7.7
24.0
Dec-11
5,660
15.4
1,706
15.8
30.1
1,367
1,474
20.5
26.0
Mar-12
6,228
3.3
1,957
-7.2
31.4
1,229
1,857
-0.3
29.8
Jun-12
6,520
16.1
2,028
8.4
31.1
1,635
1,696
11.8
26.0
CY11
23,380
10.7
7,445
0.9
31.8
4,306
6,314
8.6
27.0
CY12E
25,650
9.7
7,944
6.7
31.0
6,175
6,864
8.7
26.8
39.8
15.5
22.0
41.0
8.1
11.3
42.1
0.9
17.4
41.5
1.6
17.3
38.9
15.6
17.4
41.0
2.0
17.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Other Income - Rec.
PBT & EO Expense
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Adj PAT
EO Expense (net of tax)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
(INR Million)
2010
21,116
12.9
7,378
12.7
34.9
176
6
1,477
8,673
2,859
33.0
5,814
177
5,637
15.2
26.7
2011
23,380
10.7
7,445
0.9
31.8
204
3
1,978
9,216
2,902
31.5
6,314
-2,008
4,306
8.6
18.4
2012E
25,650
9.7
7,944
6.7
31.0
171
0
2,248
10,020
3,156
31.5
6,864
-689
6,175
8.7
24.1
2010
847
18,445
17
19,308
52
19,360
2011
847
18,336
17
19,199
49
19,248
2012E
847
19,614
17
20,478
0
20,478
2013E
847
22,069
17
22,933
0
22,933
1,089
87
1,604
991
254
1,598
1,620
254
20,426
2,204
254
21,882
24,483
2,815
470
19,481
1,717
8,468
3,567
4,900
16,016
564
19,360
26,959
3,301
853
19,864
2,940
11,168
3,545
7,623
15,790
615
19,248
8,849
3,848
770
1,283
2,950
11,286
3,591
7,695
-2,437
615
20,478
9,826
4,479
867
1,445
3,034
11,849
3,757
8,092
-2,023
615
22,932
Balance Sheet
Y/E December
Reserves
Capital Reserve
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash & Bank Balance
Others
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Deferred Tax Assets
Appl. of Funds
2013E
28,899
12.7
9,156
15.3
31.7
215
0
2,504
11,445
3,605
31.5
7,840
0
7,840
14.2
27.1
(INR Million)
Income Statement
Y/E December
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
(INR Million)
2010
2011
2012E
2013E
68.6
70.7
228.0
40.0
66.5
74.5
76.9
226.7
50.0
76.5
81.0
83.1
241.8
60.0
84.4
92.6
95.1
270.7
70.0
86.2
Valuation
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
30.5
29.6
9.2
7.4
21.2
1.9
28.1
27.2
9.2
6.7
20.9
2.4
25.8
25.2
8.6
6.1
19.6
2.9
22.6
22.0
7.7
5.3
16.8
3.3
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
30.1
44.8
32.9
47.9
33.5
48.9
34.2
49.9
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Working Capital (Days)
20.9
8
49
-60
22.5
13
52
-64
19.6
11
55
-53
15.1
11
57
-44
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Y/E December
2010
Oper. Profit/Loss bef. Tax 7,378
Interest/Div. Recd.
1,477
Direct Taxes Paid
-2,976
(Inc)/Dec in WC
-3
CF from Operations
5,876
2011
5,438
1,978
-2,953
-357
4,105
2012E
7,255
2,248
-3,156
-1,320
5,026
2013E
9,156
2,504
-3,605
-1,217
6,838
EO expense
CF frm Op. incl EO exp.
177
5,699
-2,008
6,113
-689
5,715
0
6,838
-166
216
50
-272
5
-267
-800
-18,929
-19,729
-800
-1,557
-2,357
0
-3
-6
-2,985
-2,994
-1,593
-3
-3
-3,863
-5,462
311
-49
0
-4,829
-4,567
1,476
0
0
-5,795
-4,319
Inc/Dec of Cash
2,755
Closing Balance
19,481
383
19,481
19,864
-18,581
19,864
1,283
163
1,283
1,445
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity
Cash Flow Statement
(inc)/dec in FA
CF from investments
(INR Million)
Revenue Mix (INR M)
Pharmaceuticals
Growth (%)
Exports
Growth (%)
Iodex
Growth (%)
Total
Growth (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
CY10
19,603
14.3
631
-11.9
882
3.9
21,116
12.9
CY11
22,049
11.2
365
-42.2
966
9.5
23,380
10.7
CY12E
24,695
12.0
183
-50.0
773
-20.0
25,650
9.7
CY13E
27,905
13.0
183
811
5.0
28,899
12.7
Change in Net Worth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
53
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Company description
Key challenges
Glenmark is a second-tier generic company. It has
differentiated itself through successful NCE research.
It has a pipeline of 5 novel drugs in different phases of
clinical studies, generating cumulative R&D licensing
income of USD207m. Its key markets are: US (38% of
sales), India (27%) and emerging markets (19%).






Most successful NCE research company from India
with cumulative licensing income of USD207m.
Currently, it has 2 out-licensed NCEs (to Sanofi) and
a total of 5 NCEs undergoing clinical trials.
Expect improved working capital and moderate
capex to help the management reduce debt. Return
ratios are expected to gradually improve over the
next two years – RoCE from 12.1% to 21% and RoE
from 13.5% to 21%.
Improved working capital cycle coupled with
potential debt reduction is likely to address investor
concerns on adverse balance sheet.
Glenmark is trying to build a differentiated product
portfolio in the US through a combination of oral
contraceptives (OC) and dermatology products.
Expect 54% EPS CAGR over FY12-14, albeit on a low
base.
Stock info
GNP IN
271
416
2.0
427 / 265
4 / 42 / 24
54
Approvals & ramp-up of the OC portfolio in the US.
Reduction in debt – expected to begin in FY13.
 Release of data from Revamilast clinical trials (likely
by 1QFY14); favourable data could lead to successful
out-licensing.


1QFY13 highlights
Performance was above estimates led by strong
traction in US, India and emerging markets but partly
boosted by favorable currency.
 Core EBITDA at INR1.85b was higher than our
estimate of INR1.47b while core EBITDA margin was
18.7% v/s our estimate of 16.2%.
 Adj PAT de-growth of 54% was mainly due to forex
losses of INR550m.
 Overall working capital continued to be under
control at 125-130 days.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
The proposed new "Domestic Pharma Policy", may
adversely impact earnings.
 NCE research is a high-gestation and expensive
business, and may pressurize margins in near term.
 Needs to broaden its therapeutic coverage in India
to fully exploit the domestic market potential.
Jun-12
48.3
5.4
34.0
12.3
Mar-12
48.3
4.6
35.5
11.7
Jun-11
48.3
6.9
31.9
12.9
Y/E March
Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
Operating Income
8,683 10,554 10,311
Op.Inc.(ex one-offs&R&D) 7,570
9,272
9,780
Change (%)
27.8
32.3
34.3
EBITDA
2,966
2,983
2,046
EBITDA (ex one-offs)
1,854
1,731
1,603
Change (%)
32.7
12.7
6.4
EBITDA Margin (%)
24.5
18.7
16.4
Reported PAT
2,093
548
451
Adj.PAT (ex one-offs)
1,092
745
76
Change (%)
17.8
-24.6
-92.2
PAT Margin (%)
14.4
8.0
0.8
Key Operating Metrics - Revenue Break-up
US
2,512
3,001
3,190
Europe
390
563
971
India
2,254
2,539
2,547
Latam
621
780
860
ROW
1,047
1,479
1,571
APIs
646
763
836
R&D Income
1,112
1,185
238
Others
101
246
97
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Mar-12
10,659
10,302
30.0
1,864
1,631
511.1
15.8
1,511
1,331
101.4
12.9
3,435
1,083
2,682
751
1,828
850
30
Jun-12
10,404
9,863
30.3
2,198
1,841
-0.7
18.7
783
506
-53.6
5.1
FY12
40,206
36,925
31.2
9,860
6,819
44.9
18.5
4,603
3,244
-8.6
8.8
FY13E
47,946
47,404
28.4
9,487
9,129
33.9
19.3
6,484
5,493
69.3
11.6
3,924 12,137
602 3,008
2,798 10,021
670 3,012
1,348 5,926
1,005 3,094
- 2,535
58
474
16,233
3,525
12,026
3,932
7,624
3,892
241
474
August 27 - 31, 2012
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Net Sales
29,491
40,206
47,946
54,603
Change (%)
19.8
36.3
19.2
13.9
EBITDA
5,923
9,860
9,487
11,618
Margin (%)
20.1
24.5
19.8
21.3
Adjusted EBITDA
5,028
7,325
9,246
11,384
Margin (%)
17.6
19.4
19.4
20.9
Depreciation
947
979
1,067
1,189
EBIT
4,976
8,882
8,420
10,429
Interest
1,566
1,466
1,462
1,280
OI & forex gains/losses
1,405
-1,218
-91
281
PBT before EO Expense
4,816
6,198
6,867
9,431
PBT after EO Exp.
4,816
4,881
6,867
9,431
Tax
237
238
1,018
1,415
Tax Rate (%)
4.9
4.9
14.8
15.0
Reported PAT
4,578
4,643
5,849
8,016
Adj PAT**
3,548
3,244
5,493
7,713
Margin (%)
12.4
8.6
11.5
14.2
**Excl NCE upsides & incl adjustment for R&D exp capitalization
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Fully Diluted Eq Cap
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Loans
Deferred liabilities
Capital Employed
2011
270
284
20,102
20,372
267
21,258
-1081
40,816
2012
271
284
23,746
24,016
250
20,779
-2674
42,371
2013E
271
284
29,198
29,468
170
19,279
-2674
46,243
2014E
271
284
36,751
37,022
70
15,779
-2674
50,197
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Intangibles (net)
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Others
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
21,023
1,100
309
10,329
25,988
8,070
11,308
1,959
4,651
7,605
18,384
40,816
23,790
1,100
298
11,862
29,472
7,877
12,436
3,201
5,958
12,289
17,183
42,371
25,681
1,100
298
11,031
32,750
9,852
15,106
1,224
6,568
13,586
19,165
46,243
26,992
1,100
298
10,259
37,267
11,220
17,204
1,364
7,480
15,460
21,807
50,197
2011
8,447
7,516
9,296
895
3,337
2012
10,021
10,771
13,311
2,535
3,568
2013E
12,026
13,568
17,746
241
4,366
2014E
13,950
15,686
19,909
234
4,824
29,491
40,206
47,946
54,603
Ratio
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS (Fully diluted)*
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
12.5
15.8
75.4
3.7
5.2
11.4
14.9
88.8
10.0
13.6
19.3
23.1
108.9
5.0
5.4
27.1
31.3
136.8
5.7
4.5
Valuation (x)
P/E (Fully diluted)
PEG (x)
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
33.3
4.6
26.3
5.5
4.5
22.2
0.9
36.4
-4.3
28.0
4.7
3.2
13.2
2.4
21.5
0.3
18.0
3.8
2.7
13.7
1.2
15.3
0.4
13.3
3.0
2.3
10.9
1.4
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
17.4
13.4
13.5
12.1
18.6
17.5
20.8
20.9
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Working Capital (Days)
1.5
140
100
203
1.8
113
72
127
1.9
115
75
137
2.1
115
75
137
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Debt/Equity
3.4
1.0
2.4
0.9
2.4
0.7
2.4
0.4
Cash Flow Statement
Revenue model (INR M)
Y/E March
India Formulations
Branded form. exports
Generics
NCE Income
API & Others
Gross Sales
August 27 - 31, 2012
Y/E March
Op. Profit/Loss before Tax
Interest/Dividends Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
CF frm Op.incl EO Exp.
(Inc)/Dec in FA
CF from Investments
Change in Networth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
2011
5,923
1,405
-2,029
1,530
6,829
2012
9,860
-1,218
-1,830
2,443
9,254
2013E
9,487
-91
-1,018
-3,958
4,420
2014E
11,618
281
-1,415
-2,503
7,982
6,829
810
682
7,937
-3,746
-3,735
4,420
-2,957
-2,957
7,982
-2,500
-2,500
-7,521
2,701
-1,566
-236
-6,621
-366
-496
-1,466
-633
-2,961
-80
-1,580
-1,462
-317
-3,439
-100
-3,600
-1,280
-363
-5,342
890
1,069
1,959
1,242
1,959
3,201
-1,976
3,201
1,224
139
1,224
1,364
55
Godrej Consumer Products
Company description
Key challenges
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) enjoys leadership
position in India's household insecticide business.
Besides, it is the second largest player in the INR90b
Toilet Soap category (~10% market share) and market
leader in the INR10b hair dye category with a market
share of ~32%. GCPL has been very aggressive in
international acquisitions which now account for more
than 36% of consolidated revenues.

GCPL will have to pay INR3-4b every year to acquire
remaining geographies of Darling Group. Given the
already laid-out roadmap for this, incremental
acquisitions can impact cash flows.
 Sustaining 20%+ growth and margins in toilet soaps
is a challenge, given the high penetration and
competitive intensity.
Synergies from GHPL (Godrej Home Products Ltd)
post the merger have paid of well by way of strong
volume growth, increase in distribution reach, and
access to various new geographies.
 Market leadership and strong 20%+ growth in the
domestic household insecticides business is the key
growth driver for the company. GCPL has ~37%
market share in the INR25b market in India.
 GCPL has acquired leading brands in their respective
geographies. In several of these territories these
companies are already competing with their MNC
counterparts and have shown ability to compete
with them and grow successfully. Megasari has been
competing with S C Johnson in Indonesia, whereas
the LatAm subsidiaries have been competing with
MNCs like L'Oreal and P&G.

Stock info
GCPL IN
340
639
3.9
658 / 370
9 / 49 / 49
56
1QFY13 Consolidated sales grew 39% to INR13.8b
led by 27% sales growth in domestic Household
Insectices, 42% growth in Toilet Soaps, 40% growth
in Megasari, and 94% growth in Latin America.
 GCPL received INR165m (INR80m after minority
interest) as a result of zero tax status to its Nigeria
business. It will enjoy this status for 5 years.
 We remain positive on the rapidly growing
household insecticides business which has in the
last two years consistently outperformed market
growth. We expect profit margins in toilet soaps in
the coming quarters to remain under check due to
firm PFAD prices.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Any big ticket acquisition by the company.
 Synergies
and cross-pollination between
geographies and acquired companies.
 INR and PFAD prices are an overhang on margins.

Jun-12
64.0
1.0
27.2
7.8
Mar-12
64.0
1.8
25.3
9.0
Jun-11
67.3
2.2
19.3
11.2
Y/E March
Jun-11
Operating Income
9,978
Change (%)
39.6
EBITDA
1,427
Change (%)
11.5
EBITDA Margin (%)
14.3
Reported PAT
2,393
Adjusted PAT
1,002
Change (%)
10.3
PAT Margin (%)
10.0
India EBITDA margin (%) 15.3
Intl. EBITDA margin (%) 12.6
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
11,860
23.3
2,088
25.1
17.6
1,277
1,277
-2.0
10.8
Dec-11
13,441
35.9
2,653
60.1
19.7
1,671
1,671
40.7
12.4
Mar-12
13,230
32.4
2,481
39.6
18.8
1,927
1,730
22.1
13.1
Jun-12
13886
39.2
1988
39.3
14.3
1305
1305
30.2
9.4
17.6
17.2
18.8
21.0
19.0
18.3
14.1
14.5
FY12
48,509
32.0
8,607
35.4
17.7
7,267
5,266
11.2
10.9
FY13E
63147
30.17
11298
31.26
17.89
7446
7446
41.42
11.79
August 27 - 31, 2012
Godrej Consumer Products: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest Income
Other Income-rec.
forex gain/(loss)
PBT
Change (%)
Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
minority interest
Group Adjusted PAT
Non-rec. (Exp.)/Income
Reported PAT
2011
36,763
80.1
30,405
6,358
55.7
17.3
499
436
643
0
-52.8
6,118
45.7
1,382
0
22.6
4,736
39.5
0.0
4,736
411
5,148
(INR Million)
2012
48,509
32.0
39,903
8,607
35.4
17.7
644
658
672
0
205
7,771
27.0
2,261
0
29.1
5,511
16.4
245
5,266
2,002
7,267
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Minority Int
Networth
Loans
Deferred Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Currents Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liab. & Prov.
Account Payables
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Net Assets
2013E
63,147
30.2
51,849
11,298
31.3
17.9
887
1,046
430
660
0
10,454
34.5
2,352
-76
23.2
8,025
45.6
579
7,446
0
8,025
2014E
78,327
24.0
64,378
13,949
23.5
17.8
1,044
1,114
596
713
0
13,102
25.3
3,079
-91
24.2
9,932
23.8
856
9,076
0
9,932
(INR Million)
2011
324
16,928
17,252
20,054
14
37,320
2012
324
20,561
591
20,885
23,800
74
45,350
2013E
340
31,656
1,170
31,996
23,250
150
56,567
2014E
340
36,750
2,027
37,090
24,750
241
64,108
19,147
3,775
15,373
154
15,404
15,062
4,394
3,840
2,269
4,437
122
8,673
5,499
3,084
89
6,389
37,320
23,347
4,452
18,896
150
20,444
16,776
6,264
3,998
1,311
4,703
500
10,916
7,424
3,466
26
5,860
45,350
29,562
5,339
24,224
150
23,444
22,266
8,131
5,190
2,985
5,360
600
13,518
9,556
3,926
35
8,748
56,567
34,787
6,382
28,405
150
25,444
26,334
10,086
6,438
2,979
6,110
720
16,225
11,780
4,399
46
10,108
64,108
Net Sales Growth (%)
EBITDA
EBIT Margin (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
FY11
80.1
6,358
17.3
FY12
32.0
8,607
17.7
FY13E
30.2
11,298
17.9
FY14E
24.0
13,949
17.8
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
14.6
16.2
53.3
5.0
34.4
16.3
18.3
64.5
6.0
36.9
21.9
24.5
94.0
8.0
36.6
26.7
29.7
109.0
10.0
37.5
37.2
33.1
4.5
25.4
9.4
1.0
27.6
24.7
3.6
20.0
6.4
1.3
22.7
20.3
2.9
16.3
5.6
1.7
27.5
18.4
25.2
20.4
23.3
22.7
24.5
24.5
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
38
2.4
30
2.5
30
2.6
30
2.7
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
1.2
1.1
0.7
0.7
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Other Income
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(INR Million)
2011
6,358
643
436
1,382
3,605
1,578
2012
8,607
672
658
2,261
429
5,931
2013E
11,298
1,089
1,046
2,352
1,214
7,774
2014E
13,949
1,310
1,114
3,079
1,365
9,701
Extraordinary Items
Inc in FA
Pur of Investments
Goodwill
CF from Investments
411
15,144
-670
12,285
-26,348
2,002
4,196
0
5,040
-7,235
0
6,215
0
3,000
-9,215
0
5,225
0
2,000
-7,225
Issue of Shares
Inc in Debt
Dividend Paid
Other Item
4,976
19,685
1,966
1,293
23,988
337
3,746
2,272
-1,466
345
6,850
-550
3,185
0
1,500
3,982
3,115
-2,482
-782
3,052
2,269
-958
2,269
1,311
1,674
1,311
2,985
-5
2,985
2,979
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
57
Grasim Industries
Company description
Grasim is a diversified company with business interest
in VSF (35% of revenue) and cement (through subsidiary
UltraTech, 65% of revenue). UltraTech Cement, its
subsidiary, is number one cement company in India
with total capacity of ~50mt.

UltraTech, Grasim's 60% subsidiary, is a truly panIndia play without concentration in any particular
region, insulating it from volatility in regional
demand & prices.
 Grasim is a global leader in VSF business, with
backward integration in pulp. Expect robust VSF
demand in both global and domestic markets.
 The outlook for VSF is improving driven by likely
low cotton output in FY13, coupled with limited
downside risk to VSF prices from current levels as
some Chinese players are making EBITDA loss.
 With planned VSF capacity expansion of ~50% of
existing capacity, Grasim is well placed to benefit
from any improvement in demand and pricing.

Key challenges
Post ongoing capex in VSF, Grasim needs avenues
to deploy its strong cash flow from VSF business.
 Deriving synergies from recent acquisitions of
Domsjo, Terrace Bay, and planned capacity addition
in Turkey through JV.

Stock info
GRASIM IN
92
3,017
5.0
3,046 / 2,040
13 / 8 / 37
58
1QFY13 VSF volumes were ahead of estimate at
77,013 tons (v/s estimate 73,375 tons), up 40% YoY
(-19% QoQ).
 Average realization was also ahead of estimate at
INR128/kg (v/s estimate INR125/Kg).
 Higher realizations and softening costs (e.g. pulp
prices down 3% QoQ ) led to PBDIT margin improving
710bp QoQ.
 Grasim indicated that it does not see any further
downside to VSF prices, as at current levels of global
VSF prices, Chinese players would be making
losses. Chinese players are operating at 65-68%
utilizations.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Entered into agreement to acquire 40% stakein
Terrace Bay Inc (US-based paper grade pulp maker)
for USD44m.
 Grasim's capex program to add 156,500 tons of VSF
capacity is on track:
(1) Harihar brownfield addition of 36,000 tons in
two phases by Aug-12 and Jan-13, and
(2) Vilayat greenfield addition of 120,000 tons by
4QFY13.
 It is also expanding pulp capacity in Domsjo by 45,000
tons to 255,000 tons, which is expected to be
operational by 2QFY13.
Jun-12
25.5
16.8
39.0
18.7
Mar-12
25.6
16.9
38.6
19.0
Jun-11
25.6
17.8
38.2
18.5
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Op. Income
10,237
Change (%)
8.3
EBITDA
3,529
Change (%)
17.2
Reported PAT
3,141
Adjusted PAT
3,141
Change (%)
40.3
PAT Margin (%)
30.7
VSF Volume (t)
54,839
Realiz.(INR/t)
152,409
Cem. Volume (mt)
9.86
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
12,035
29.0
2,905
10.1
24.1
3,448
3,448
23.3
28.7
Dec-11
12,429
2.4
2,854
-21.5
23.0
2,745
2,745
-2.9
22.1
Mar-12
13,885
-2.6
2,168
-53.3
15.6
2,436
2,436
-38.4
17.5
Jun-12
12,390
21.0
2,953
-16.3
23.8
2,729
2,729
-13.1
22.0
FY12
48,724
7.3
11,611
-18.3
23.8
11,770
11,770
-0.4
24.2
FY13E
50,876
4.4
11,984
3.2
23.6
12,327
12,327
4.7
24.2
78,959
124,689
9.22
78,215
128,499
10.11
94,904
121,293
11.54
77,013
128,024
10.33
306,917
129,563
40.7
338,428
127,293
43.8
August 27 - 31, 2012
Grasim Industries: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest cost
Other Income - Rec.
PBT after EO items
Tax Rate (%)
Consolidated PAT
Change (%)
2011
213,183
6.9
47,635
-17.7
22.3
11,384
4,068
6,310
38,494
24.8
22,790
-16.6
(INR Million)
2013E
269,921
8
62,923
18.3
23.3
12,108
2,868
10,306
58,252
26.2
31,673
19.6
2014E
308,646
14.3
72,112
14.6
23.4
15,363
2,810
9,906
63,845
27.4
34,098
7.7
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Consolidated Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Net Worth
Loans
Minority Interest
Capital Employed
2011
917
145,586
67,827
19,616
43,514
276,543
2012
917
170,687
65,513
19,790
52,334
308,324
2013E
917
199,140
62,420
19,790
63,661
345,012
2014E
917
229,483
57,420
19,711
75,898
382,512
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Goodwill
144,316
13,578
79,185
24,191
153,140
22,000
78,758
24,964
176,532
70,000
58,670
24,964
244,169
20,000
76,404
24,964
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Others
Account Payables
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
58,797
27,229
14,346
2,844
14,378
43,524
29,357
6,395
15,273
276,542
86,483
30,711
17,288
3,252
35,232
57,020
26,353
20,883
29,462
308,324
71,529
32,390
17,545
4,049
17,545
56,683
37,789
8,098
14,846
345,012
81,791
37,037
20,062
4,630
20,062
64,816
43,210
9,259
16,976
382,512
VSF business - Key assumptions
Capacity (ton)
Sales volume (ton)
Net Turnover (INR m)
Avg Realiz. (INR/ton)
PBIDT Margin (%)
PBDIT (INR m)
August 27 - 31, 2012
FY11
333,975
305,072
41,695
126,614
35.5
14,793
Ratios
2012
249,878
17.2
53,184
11.7
21.3
11,544
3,136
10,018
48,522
27.2
26,475
16.2
FY12
333,975
306,917
42,924
129,563
27.2
11,673
FY13E
490,475
338,428
46,440
127,293
25.3
11,772
FY14E
490,475
362,952
50,587
129,293
25.8
13,036
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
248.5
371
1,587
20
9.4
288.6
458
1,861
22.5
9
345.3
534.7
2,171
30
10.2
371.8
586.8
2,502
35
11
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/ EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/Ton (US$)
12
8
1.9
6.6
0.7
115
10.3
6.5
1.6
6.6
0.8
121
8.6
5.6
1.4
5.9
1
124
8
5.1
1.2
4.8
1.2
90
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
15.7
19.9
15.5
21.9
15.9
23.4
14.9
23.2
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditor (Days)
25
47
50
25
45
38
24
44
51
24
44
51
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Interest/Div./ Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
2011
47,635
6,310
-9,984
-8,311
35,650
2012
53,184
10,018
-13,033
-13,781
36,389
2013E
62,923
10,306
-15,252
15,413
73,389
2014E
72,112
9,906
-17,589
-1,549
62,880
(inc)/dec in FA
CF from Invest.
-23,751
-16,742
-40,493
-28,790
-347
-29,136
-83,500
20,088
-63,412
-33,000
-17,734
-50,734
Issue of Shares
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
-304
11,835
-4,068
-2,146
5,317
1,020
-2,314
-3,136
-2,394
-6,824
0
-3,093
-2,868
-3,219
-9,181
0
-5,000
-2,810
-3,756
-11,566
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
474
2,370
2,844
428
2,844
3,252
797
3,252
4,049
581
4,049
4,630
59
HDFC
Company description
Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) is
India's largest housing finance company, operating
through a pan India network of 318 outlets. Its AUM
size was INR1.6t as on 30th June 2012 with 2/3rd of the
portfolio coming from individual loans. Besides the
core housing finance business, HDFC has interest in
banking, insurance and asset management businesses
through its group companies.
Across the cycle, HDFC has demonstrated a
successful track record of healthy growth. Over
FY02-12, disbursements and sanctions have both
grown @ 25% CAGR each. During the same period,
individual loans (including sell-downs) grew @ 23%.
Despite higher interest rates and elevated property
prices in India, HDFC's sanctions and disbursements
growth remains healthy at 17% and 20% in 1QFY13.
 HDFC has done a commendable job of managing
spreads in the range of 2.1-2.3% irrespective of the
interest rate cycle and competitive pressure. With
the teaser loan portfolio repricing and expected fall
in interest rates, we expect HDFC to comfortably
maintain spreads in its stated band of 2.1-2.3%.
 HDFC has demonstrated its superior credit appraisal
capabilities by maintaining healthy asset quality
with gross NPAs remaining below 1%.
 Its subsidiaries/associates have grown sizably and
become self-sufficient. The life insurance business
has turned profitable and should not need further

Stock info
HDFC IN
1,489
712
19.0
726 / 601
1/3/3
60
Key challenges
Continued change in regulation from NHB relating
to (a) Teaser loan portfolio, (b) uniform rates for
existing and new customers could act as a deterrent
to growth and margins.
 Moderation in economic growth and high real
estate prices may impact overall demand.

Warrants issued in September 2009 to get converted
into equity in August 2012.
 Any announcement by NHB related to capital
requirements.
 Listing of insurance venture.

Performance highlights of 1QFY13: Individual loan
growth (including sell down) of 22%, spread at
227bp, GNPA ratio of 79bp, interest on ZCBs of
INR1.5b charged to reserves, and CAR at 14.6% with
Tier I ratio of 11.6%.
 Guidance for FY13-14: Loan growth of 18-20%,
spreads in the range of 2.15-2.35%, Consolidated
ROE to improve 100bp every year (except FY13 due
to warrant conversion), stable cost to income ratio.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
capital infusion. HDFC does not need to dilute
capital to fund subsidiaries; strong core RoE's will
help fund own growth. Value unlocking through
listing of insurance subsidiary could provide capital
for infusion in HDFC Bank, as and when needed.
Jun-12
0.0
15.1
71.3
13.6
Mar-12
0.0
15.4
70.8
13.9
Jun-11
0.0
14.3
73.3
12.4
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Int. Income
10,948
YoY Change (%)
17.1
Profit on Sale of Inv. 163
Other oper. income 1,909
Net Oper. Income 13,020
Pre Provi. Profit
11,935
YoY Change (%)
21.6
PAT
8,445
YoY Change (%)
21.6
AUM Growth (%)
20.6
Spreads (%; Cum.) 2.30
GNPA (%)
0.83
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
12,435
14.7
869
1,430
14,734
13,547
17.9
9,707
20.2
Dec-11
12,364
15.1
880
1,306
14,549
13,483
9.8
9,813
10.1
Mar-12
17,434
27.2
791
1,233
19,458
18,491
17.1
13,261
16.1
Jun-12
13,042
19.1
202
2,223
15,467
14,199
19.0
10,019
18.6
FY12
52,121
16.3
2,702
6,939
61,762
57,456
16.4
41,226
16.6
FY13E
63,852
22.5
2,500
8,524
74,876
69,622
21.2
49,225
19.4
20.2
2.29
0.82
20.7
2.27
0.82
20.2
2.27
0.74
19.2
2.27
0.79
20.2
2.27
0.74
22.0
NA
0.74
August 27 - 31, 2012
HDFC: Financials and valuation
Income statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Interest Income
120,431
Interest Expended
75,599
Net Interest Income
44,832
Change (%)
25.3
Fees and Other Charges 2,204
Net Int. Inc. (incl fees)
47,035
Change (%)
23.5
Other Operating Income 5,894
Miscellanous Income
251
Net Income
53,181
Change (%)
23.7
Operating Expenses
3,812
Operating Income
49,370
Change (%)
24.2
Provisions/write offs
700
Reported PBT
48,670
Tax
13,320
Tax Rate (%)
27.4
Reported PAT
35,350
Change (%)
25.1
PAT adjusted for EO
35,350
Change (%)
25.1
2012
163,689
111,568
52,121
16.3
2,684
54,805
16.5
6,957
213
61,975
16.5
4,519
57,456
16.4
800
56,656
15,430
27.2
41,226
16.6
41,226
16.6
2013E
203,277
139,426
63,852
22.5
3,419
67,270
22.7
7,606
250
75,126
21.2
5,504
69,622
21.2
1,958
67,664
18,438
27.3
49,225
19.4
49,225
19.4
2012
2,954
187,222
190,176
406,966
621,381
362,928
1,391,275
20.9
1,581,451
1,408,746
20.3
122,070
3.2
1,581,451
2013E
3,063
240,945
244,008
460,313
745,657
417,367
1,623,338
16.7
1,867,346
1,726,955
22.6
128,174
5.0
1,867,346
Balance sheet
Y/E March
Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Loans from Banks
Bonds/Debentures
Deposits
Borrowings
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Housing Loans
Change (%)
Investments
Change (%)
Total Assets
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
236,504
159,267
77,237
21.0
4,034
81,271
20.8
8,627
275
90,173
20.0
6,647
83,525
20.0
2,187
81,338
22,165
27.3
59,173
20.2
59,173
20.2
(INR Million)
2011
2,934
170,231
173,165
424,898
482,956
243,269
1,151,123
19.2
1,324,288
1,171,266
19.6
118,324
10.3
1,324,288
2014E
3,063
271,410
274,473
560,947
894,789
479,972
1,935,708
19.2
2,210,181
2,081,406
20.5
134,582
5.0
2,210,181
Ratios
Y/E March
2011
Avg Yield on Housing Loans 10.5
Avg. Yield on Earning Assets 9.8
7.1
Interest Spread
2.6
Net Interest Margin
3.6
2012
2013E
2014E
11.8
11.1
8.8
2.3
3.5
12.1
11.6
9.3
2.4
3.6
11.6
11.4
9.0
2.5
3.7
RoE
Adjusted RoE
RoA
Adjusted RoA
21.7
26.6
2.9
2.8
22.7
27.3
2.8
2.7
22.7
29.4
2.9
2.7
22.8
30.9
2.9
2.8
62.8
15.7
7.2
46.1
68.2
15.9
7.3
45.5
68.6
15.0
7.3
44.9
67.3
14.3
7.4
44.6
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
118.1
128.8
159.3
179.2
Price-BV (x)
5.3
4.3
3.8
Adjusted BV* (INR)
91.2
100.5
105.9
125.8
Adj Price-ABV (x)
5.0
4.5
3.6
EPS (INR)
24.1
27.9
32.1
38.6
EPS Growth (%)
22.4
15.8
15.1
20.2
Adj Price-Earnings (x)
18.0
15.0
11.6
Adjusted EPS (INR)#
22.6
26.0
29.8
35.7
Adjusted EPS Growth (%)
21.8
15.1
14.4
20.0
Adj Price-Adj EPS (x)
19.3
16.1
12.5
Dividend per share (INR)
9.0
11.0
12.2
14.7
Dividend yield (%)
1.6
1.8
2.1
E: MOSL Estimates; * BV is adj. by deducting investments in key
ventures from NW; # Adjusted EPS is adjusting for dividend
from key ventures
61
HDFC Bank
Company description

HDFC Bank (HDFCB) is India's largest retail bank and
second largest private sector bank, with balance sheet
size of INR3.6t+. Backed by its consistent performance
(enviable track record of 52 quarters of 30%+ earnings
growth), HDFCB enjoys highest market capitalization
among Indian banks. Retail assets and liabilities are its
core strategy. Rated as one of the best banks in India, it
has 2,550+ branches and 9,700+ ATMs across the country.
Key challenges

HDFCB is best placed in the current environment,
with (1) CASA ratio of ~46%, (2) growth outlook of
1.3x the industry, and (5) best-in-class asset quality.
 HDFCB's loan growth is expected to stay strong due
to (1) sharper focus on medium/long tenure
corporate loans, (2) strong demand for auto loans,
and (3) growth from rural and semi-urban areas for
existing products.
 Strong CASA ratio and a higher share of retail loans
helped HDFCB to post NIMs (on total assets) of 4%+.
It is expected to retain its funding cost advantage
through strong focus on new customer acquisitions
and floats from multiple transaction banking
franchises. In a falling interest rate scenario, higher
share of fixed rate loans will also cushion margins.
 A third of HDFCB's branches are less than 24 months
old; further, a large part of branch expansion
happened outside top 9 cities, where break-even
period is 24-30 months. This strong expansion in
hinterland will help (1) customer acquisition, (2)
product penetration, and (3) priority sector targets.

Stock info
HDFCB IN
2356
595
25.1
610 / 400
-1 / 16 / 22
62
Lower systemic loan growth and expected increase
in credit cost pose threat to 30% earnings growth.
Operating efficiencies and improvement in
productivity remain key.
Retail loans asset quality is the decadal best,
increase in stress here could threaten earnings.
 Competitors' strategy on retail products need to be
watched. Recently Axis, Yes, IndusInd, State Bank
and foreign banks have become very aggressive.

Performance highlights of 1QFY13: (a) Above
industry loan growth (+9% QoQ, 22% YoY), (b) NIM
of 4.3% (+10bp QoQ), (c) strong fee income (+23%
YoY), (d) SA deposits up 4% QoQ and 18% YoY, and
(e) stable asset quality.
 Guidance for FY13-14: Loan growth 3-5% higher than
system, margins of 3.9-4.3%, fall in cost to income
ratio with higher productivity and ageing of new
branches, and annual addition of 250-300 branches.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
HDFCB also carries floating provision of INR16.75b
(INR7/share) created during FY11-12 to smoothen
earnings growth led by better than factored in
credit cost on retail loans. In FY13/14, even though
slippages might get normalized to average levels
in retail segment and credit cost would increase,
buffer on account of higher base due to floating
provisions would provide cushion to earnings.
Jun-12
23.1
10.7
49.0
17.3
Mar-12
23.2
10.5
48.8
17.5
Jun-11
23.3
11.1
47.7
17.9
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Int. Income
28,480
% Change (Y-o-Y)
18.6
Other Income
11,200
Operating Exp.
19,346
Operating Profit
20,334
% Change (Y-o-Y)
16.3
Other Provisions
4,437
Net Profit
10,850
% Change (Y-o-Y)
33.7
Loan Growth (%)
20.0
NIM (%)
4.2
Gross NPA (%)
1.0
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
29,445
16.6
12,117
20,304
21,258
17.6
3,661
11,994
31.5
20.0
4.1
1.0
Dec-11
31,160
12.2
14,200
21,580
23,780
14.7
3,292
14,297
31.4
22.1
4.1
1.0
Mar-12
33,883
19.3
14,920
24,671
24,132
15.1
2,983
14,531
30.4
22.2
4.2
1.0
Jun-12
34,841
22.3
15,295
24,326
25,809
26.9
4,873
14,174
30.6
21.5
4.3
1.0
FY12
122,968
16.6
52,437
85,901
89,504
15.9
14,373
51,671
31.6
22.2
4.2
1.0
FY13E
148,233
20.5
68,990
102,860
114,364
27.8
15,819
67,257
30.2
22.0
4.1
1.3
August 27 - 31, 2012
HDFC Bank: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
Interest Income
199,282 272,864
Interest Expense
93,851 149,896
Net Interest Income
105,431 122,968
Change (%)
25.7
16.6
Non Interest Income
43,352
52,437
Net Income
148,783 175,405
Change (%)
20.3
17.9
Operating Expenses
71,529
85,901
77,254
89,504
Change (%)
20.2
15.9
19,067
14,373
PBT
58,187
75,132
Tax
18,923
23,461
Tax Rate (%)
32.5
31.2
PAT
39,264
51,671
Change (%)
33.2
31.6
Equity Dividend (Incl tax)
8,948
11,806
Core PPP*
77,780
91,463
Change (%)
27.8
17.6
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
2011
4,652
Reserves & Surplus
249,140
Net Worth
253,793
Deposits
2,085,864
Change (%)
24.6
of which CASA Dep
1,099,083
Change (%)
26.2
Borrowings
143,941
Total Liabilities
2,773,526
Current Assets
296,688
Investments
709,294
Change (%)
21.0
Loans
1,599,827
Change (%)
27.1
Fixed Assets
21,706
Other Assets
146,011
Total Assets
2,773,526
2013E
335,204
186,971
148,233
20.5
68,990
217,224
23.8
102,860
114,364
27.8
15,819
98,544
31,288
31.8
67,257
30.2
15,737
111,364
21.8
(INR Million)
2012
4,693
294,553
299,247
2,467,064
18.3
1,194,059
8.6
238,465
374,319
3,379,095
209,377
974,829
37.4
1,954,200
22.2
23,472
217,216
3,379,095
2013E
4,693
346,073
350,766
2,985,148
21.0
1,372,663
15.0
243,581
522,123
4,101,618
245,251
1,121,053
15.0
2,384,124
22.0
25,365
325,825
4,101,618
2014E
4,693
410,278
414,971
3,701,584
24.0
1,647,196
20.0
256,397
729,025
5,101,977
316,212
1,289,211
15.0
2,980,155
25.0
27,660
488,737
5,101,977
2012
19,994
3,523
1.01
0.18
82.4
2013E
31,263
7,692
1.30
0.32
75.4
2014E
55,169
15,165
1.83
0.51
72.5
Asset Quality
Y/E March
2011
GNPA (INR m)
16,943
NNPA (INR m)
2,964
GNPA Ratio
1.05
NNPA Ratio
0.19
82.5
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
392,809
214,486
178,323
20.3
85,039
263,361
21.2
121,182
142,179
24.3
19,818
122,361
38,544
31.5
83,817
24.6
16,763
137,679
23.6
(%)
Ratios
Y/E March
Avg. Yield on loans
Avg. Yield on Invt
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
RoE
RoA
Cost/Income*
* ex treasury
Loans/Deposit
CASA Ratio
Investment/Deposit
G-Sec/Investment
CAR
Tier 1
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
9.2
10.6
7.2
4.7
4.3
4.5
4.9
10.2
11.6
7.7
6.1
5.6
4.1
4.6
10.2
11.7
7.5
6.3
5.7
3.9
4.5
9.9
11.2
7.3
6.0
5.3
3.9
4.5
16.7
1.6
47.1
29.5
29.1
18.7
1.7
54.9
31.0
29.9
20.7
1.8
55.8
30.4
31.8
21.9
1.8
54.6
30.6
32.3
47.9
39.6
61.5
0.7
48.4
39.6
66.5
0.8
48.0
40.3
71.4
1.0
46.8
40.4
81.8
1.1
76.7
52.7
34.0
75.6
16.2
12.2
79.2
48.4
39.5
78.2
16.5
11.6
79.9
46.0
37.6
74.6
15.1
11.0
80.5
44.5
34.8
77.5
13.6
10.3
109.1
16.0
127.4
16.8
4.7
126.4
4.7
22.0
30.4
27.0
4.3
0.7
149.4
17.2
4.0
147.1
4.0
28.7
30.2
20.8
5.7
1.0
176.7
18.3
3.4
172.2
3.5
35.7
24.6
16.7
7.1
1.2
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
Change (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
Change (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend Per Sh (INR)
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
108.2
16.9
31.0
3.3
63
Hero MotorCorp
Company description
Key challenges
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL), erstwhile JV between Honda
Corporation Japan and the Munjal family, is the leader
in India's domestic motorcycle market with ~45% share.
It has a strong dealer network and high penetration in
rural areas (~45% of sales). Post split from Honda, HMCL
is free to tap global opportunity in 2W.






Strong franchise of Splendor & Passion, and wide
distribution reach makes it best placed to tap strong
demand growth, especially in rural markets. We
estimate ~9% volume growth in FY13 to 6.8m.
Apart from recent launch of Impulse and Maestro,
HMCL further plans to launch the 125cc Ignitor and
110cc Passion XPro (both showcased at Auto Expo
2012) along with 5-6 other model refreshes in FY13.
Model launches and addition of 500 dealers should
reduce impact of demand slowdown, if any.
Margins to improve from historical low levels,
driven by vendor rationalization, operating
leverage, and completion of fixed royalty payment
by Jun-14.
Post split with Honda, Hero MotoCorp is free to
explore global markets; it is targeting exports of 1m
units by FY16 (of total target sales of 10m units).
The company has announced plans to invest
INR25.75b in the coming years to (1) expand
capacity (by 2m units to 9m units), (2) set up a part
distribution centre (Rajasthan) and R&D center.
Stock info
HMCL IN
200
1,930
6.9
2279 / 1703
-11 / -5 / -5
64
Announces capex plan of ~INR26b over FY13-14, to
add 2m capacity (at two new plants), R&D center.
 Performance of the Hero branded products,
particularly in the rural markets.
 Response to new launches of Ignitor and Maestro.

1QFY13 realization was flat QoQ (+2.6% YoY) at
INR37,799 (v/s est INR38,284) impacted by adverse
market mix, despite price increases in April & May
and higher excise benefit at Haridwar plant.
 Adj EBITDA margin was flat QoQ and YoY at 10.8% as
benefit of operating leverage was offset by hit of
weaker INR on RM and royalty. Higher other income
and lower tax boosted reported PAT to INR6.15b.
 While consumer sentiments remain weak, it
maintained its industry growth guidance at 9-10%
for FY13. It expects short-run margins to remain
under pressure due to weaker INR and increase in
advertising spends.
 Plans to start exports to Africa and LatAm in 2QFY13.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Maintaining market share amidst rising competitive
pressure to test pricing power and margins.
 Ensure continuous flow of new/refreshed products.
 Weak INR may put pressure on margins.
 Scaling up nascent export business, where it is late
entrant.
Jun-12
52.2
5.9
33.3
8.5
Mar-12
52.2
5.6
33.5
8.7
Jun-11
52.2
4.6
33.8
9.5
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Op. Income
56,376
Change (%)
32.2
EBITDA
6,020
Change (%)
5.5
Adjusted PAT
5,579
Change (%)
13.5
Volumes (m units) 1.53
Realiz. (INR)
36,858
RM Cost (%)
75.3
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
57,843
28.2
6,637
17.0
11.5
6,036
19.4
Dec-11
59,836
16.9
6,669
25.1
11.1
6,130
24.3
Mar-12
59,625
11.4
6,449
5.2
10.8
6,036
20.3
Jun-12
FY12
FY13E
62,078 233,681 261,940
10.1
21.4
12.1
6,694
25,775
29,015
11.2
12.9
12.6
10.8
11.0
11.1
6,155
23,781
26,406
10.3
18.5
11.0
1.54
37,456
73.0
1.59
37,649
73.4
1.57
37,929
74.1
1.64
37,799
74.1
6.24
37,478
74.0
6.80
38,541
74.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
Hero MotorCorp: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Op. Income
Change (%)
EBITDA
Adj. EBITDA (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Effective tax Rate (%)
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
192,450
22.1
24,603
11.8
4,024
-19
4,249
24,048
19.8
20,077
-10
2012
233,681
21.4
34,078
11
10,973
213
5,756
28,647
17
23,781
18.4
2013E
261,940
12.1
37,715
11.1
11,693
120
5,722
31,624
16.5
26,406
11
2011
399
29,501
14,912
46,940
2012
399
42,839
10,114
55,035
2013E
399
56,394
3,028
61,505
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
2014E
300,369
14.7
44,179
11.8
12,105
100
6,618
38,592
24.3
29,205
10.6
(INR Million)
2014E
399
71,580
327
73,990
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
40,803
1,251
51,288
33,504
5,000
39,643
46,511
1,000
39,643
53,106
1,000
39,643
Curr.Assets, Loans
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash/ Bank Bal.
15,046
5,249
1,306
715
20,743
6,756
2,723
768
31,420
7,573
3,052
9,030
44,965
8,684
3,500
19,290
61,448
14,268
-46,402
46,940
43,854
22,932
-23,111
55,035
57,069
25,705
-25,648
61,505
64,724
29,476
-19,759
73,990
2013E
6.8
9
38,541
2.8
74
28,198
-45,644
2014E
7.65
12.5
39,285
1.9
73.5
26,980
-58,605
Sundry Creditors
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS (INR)
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS (INR)
DPS (INR)
2011
100.5
-10
107.6
148
105
125.1
2012
119.1
18.4
132.1
214.8
45
43.5
2013E
132.2
11
147.2
282.7
55
47.8
2014E
146.2
10.6
163.3
358.7
60
47.2
15.8
14.2
10.1
1.5
8.7
2.4
14.2
12.8
8.7
1.3
6.6
2.9
12.8
11.5
7.2
1.1
5.2
3.2
62.5
59.2
55.4
52.4
46.8
51.6
40.8
52.3
0.5
0.2
0.1
0
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Profit before Tax
24,048
4,024
Direct Taxes Paid
-4,812
Inc/Dec in Working Capital 2,181
-798
CF after EO Items
23,262
2012
28,647
10,973
-4,866
-23,238
0
11,517
2013E
31,624
11,693
-5,218
10,799
0
48,898
2014E
38,592
12,105
-9,387
4,370
0
45,680
-3,292
-9,994
-13,286
-7,797
11,645
3,848
-20,700
0
-20,700
-18,700
0
-18,700
-333
-158
-9,401
-9,892
-4,798
0
-10,514
-15,312
-7,086
0
-12,851
-19,936
-2,701
0
-14,019
-16,720
84
632
716
53
715
768
8,262
768
9,030
10,260
9,030
19,290
Y/E March
2011
5.4
Growth (%)
17.4
Realizations (INR/unit) 35,623
Growth (%)
4
73.3
FCF (CFO-Capex)
20,768
Net Debt
-37,091
August 27 - 31, 2012
2012
6.24
15.4
37,478
5.2
74
3,720
-30,297
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Closing Balance
65
Hindalco Industries
Company description
Hindalco (HNDL) is the largest aluminum producer in
India. It has captive bauxite mines from which it sources
67% of the requirement for its 1.5mtpa alumina refinery.
The company also has a 0.54mtpa smelting capacity and
is the largest maker of flat-rolled aluminum products
in India. After turning Novelis around in 2010, HNDL is
focusing on tripling its aluminum production capacity
in India in the next three years through brownfield and
greenfield projects. Its copper smelting capacity of
500ktpa is the largest in Asia.
Its new smelting capacities are coming up near
energy sources and its alumina facilities are near
bauxite mines, ensuring low cost of production.
 We expect Novelis to deliver strong earnings
growth, given its focus on high-margin business,
expansions in its key markets, and continued efforts
to improve operating efficiencies across its
locations.

Key challenges

Unexpected fall in aluminum prices, sluggish growth
in developed countries, and further delays in
expansion could adversely impact earnings.

Mahan coal mine is very critical for the viability of
359ktpa Mahan aluminum smelter, which is being
Stock info
HNDL IN
1915
114
3.9
165 / 105
-8 / -21 / -25
66
Hindalco standalone 1QFY13 performance was
below estimate due to disappointing copper
segment and production disturbances at aluminum
smelter. Dividends from subsidiaries boosted other
income, and Adj S/A PAT at INR4.2b was broadly inline with estimate of INR4.4b.
 Novelis' adjusted EBITDA improved QoQ on
expected lines to USD259m. Novelis is experiencing
gradual recovery in volumes with 3% QoQ growth.
 Hindalco will commission Hirakud smelter
expansion from 155kt to 213kt and 200kt FRP
facilities by end of FY13. Further, 1.5mtpa Uktal
Alumina is likely to get commissioned by end of
FY13 although uncertainty still persists. We are
modeling in 600kt incremental alumina volume
from Utkal in FY14.
 Mahan smelters are in advance stage, but the actual
commissioning is being delayed due to weak LME.
So far, INR222b has been spent on all Indian projects
with total capex of INR306b.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
set up with capex of INR105b. Timely start of coal
mining will lead to rerating of the company.
 Current LME prices for aluminium at USD1,850/ton
are close to marginal cost of production. Stronger
spot regional premiums and subsidies by Chinese
and Australian governments have so far prevented
production cutbacks. Significant capacity shutdowns
will boost prices in subdued demand scenario.
Jun-12
32.1
15.2
36.5
16.2
Mar-12
32.1
14.9
37.5
15.5
Jun-11
32.1
12.8
42.4
12.7
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
16.5
EBITDA
8,671
Change (%)
4.2
Reported PAT
6,440
Adjusted PAT
6,440
Change (%)
20.5
PAT Margin (%)
10.7
Alumina (Prodn, kt) 335
Aluminium (sales,kt) 131
Copper (sales, kt)
73
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
62,719
7.0
6,692
-7.1
10.7
5,025
5,025
10.2
8.0
Dec-11
66,470
11.3
7,149
-3.4
10.8
4,507
4,507
-2.1
6.8
Mar-12
76,471
11.7
8,648
-1.0
11.3
6,400
6,400
-4.1
8.4
Jun-12
60,279
0.0
4,631
-46.6
7.7
4,248
4,248
-34.0
7.0
FY12
265,968
11.5
31,160
-1.6
11.7
22,372
22,372
5.6
8.4
FY13E
269,665
1.4
24,462
-21.5
9.1
17,115
17,115
-23.5
6.3
332
129
75
343
147
84
345
149
94
335
124
71
1355
556
325
1400
564
332
August 27 - 31, 2012
Hindalco Industries: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Net sales
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
EBIT
Net Interest
Other income
PBT before EO
EO income
PBT after EO
Tax
Reported PAT
Minority interests
Share of asso.
Adjusted PAT
2011
720,779
85,868
11.9
27,500
58,368
14,411
4,309
48,266
-9,834
38,432
9,638
28,793
3,659
29
34,998
(INR Million)
2012
808,214
81,897
10.1
28,699
53,199
17,579
7,831
43,450
-14,616
28,834
7,862
20,972
2,113
496
33,970
2013E
802,787
85,602
10.7
25,090
60,512
19,082
7,907
49,337
-54
49,284
12,223
37,061
1,089
29
36,054
2014E
840,886
100,019
11.9
28,394
71,625
23,661
4,905
52,869
52,869
12,448
40,421
1,089
29
39,360
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Capital Employed
2011
1,990
288,243
290,233
22,169
276,920
37,596
626,918
2012
1,990
310,762
312,752
14,167
361,920
36,556
725,395
2013E
1,990
343,334
345,324
14,167
411,920
40,299
811,709
2014E
1,990
379,265
381,255
14,167
416,920
43,898
856,240
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill on consolid.
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Others
Account Payables
Provisions & Others
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
392,654
158,014
234,640
123,940
131,308
20,124
333,746
140,956
79,996
79,461
33,334
216,840
164,692
52,149
116,906
626,918
426,359
182,873
243,486
123,940
228,770
20,124
290,061
128,021
75,364
53,342
33,334
180,987
129,015
51,971
109,074
725,395
436,859
207,962
228,896
123,940
323,795
20,124
295,243
126,560
75,085
60,265
33,334
180,290
128,319
51,971
114,953
811,709
530,259
236,356
293,902
123,940
281,345
20,124
325,235
135,184
79,657
77,061
33,334
188,307
136,336
51,971
136,928
856,240
Y/E March
2011
Alumina (Production, kt) 1,353
Aluminium (sales, kt)
535
Copper (sales, kt)
330
Exchange USD/INR
45.6
Avg LME Al (USD/T)
2,282
EBITDA-Al (INR m)
24,223
EBITDA-Cu (INRm)
7,441
August 27 - 31, 2012
2012
1,355
556
325
47.9
2,352
21,309
9,851
2013E
1,400
564
332
53.5
1,996
14,118
10,343
2014E
2,000
700
333
52.0
2,100
27,272
10,861
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share (adj.)
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
17.6
28.3
83.6
1.5
8.5
17.1
25.0
94.9
1.5
8.8
18.1
31.2
111.2
1.5
8.3
19.8
34.6
129.3
1.5
7.6
6.7
4.6
1.2
0.7
6.5
1.3
6.3
3.6
1.0
0.7
6.8
1.3
5.8
3.3
0.9
0.7
5.7
1.3
23.1
10.2
15.6
19.1
7.9
13.0
17.6
7.9
14.6
16.4
8.6
16.2
18.7
21.9
279.5
12.1
-4.6
-2.9
-0.7
4.5
6.1
4.7
16.8
9.2
1.5
4.1
1.2
1.6
3.0
1.6
1.6
3.2
1.6
1.7
3.0
1.3
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE (pre-tax)
RoIC (pre-tax)
Growth (%)
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Interest Cover Ratio
Debt/Equity
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
EBITDA
85,868
Non-cash items in EBITDA -3,443
tax paid
-13,131
Change in working Capital-7,031
62,263
2012
81,897
-20,905
-7,862
-18,287
34,843
2013E
85,602
-53.5
-8,481
1,044
78,112
2014E
100,019
(Inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP -77,171 -131,167 -105,525
& yield thereon
5,143
6,213
6,846
-72,027 -124,954 -98,679
-50,950
3,844
-47,106
Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)
Interest
Dividend (incl. tax)
99
37,384
-25,410
-3,838
8,236
85,000
-17,579
-3,429
63,992
50,000
-19,082
-3,429
27,490
5,000
-23,661
-3,429
-22,089
(Inc)/Dec in Cash
Closing Balance
-1,528
80,990
79,461
-26,119
79,461
53,342
6,923
53,342
60,265
16,796
60,265
77,061
-8,849
-5,180
85,991
67
Hindustan Unilever
Company description

Hindustan Unilever (HUL, a 52.5% Unilever subsidiary)
is one of the largest Consumer companies in India with
presence across segments like Household and Personal
Care, Processed Foods and Water (Purifier). It has
leading market shares in Toilet Soaps, Detergents, Skin
Care and Shampoos and has strong presence in oral care,
coffee, tea and processed foods categories.
HUL has the widest product range in Indian
Consumer space, and being a subsidiary of Unilever,
has access to a host of products, brands and the
latest technology. Aggressive new product launches
and increasing innovation are key positives.
 HUL has the largest distribution network in the
entire Consumer universe; it expanded direct rural
reach by 0.5m outlets in FY11 and plans to further
expand rural distribution.
 Sustained growth in Soaps and detergents and
personal products is a key positive.

Key challenges

After 4 quarters of ~10% volume growth, further
price hikes could moderate volume growth.
Stock info
HUVR IN
2,162
502
19.5
504 / 311
9 / 34 / 54
68
Volume growth trend in soaps & detergents and
personal care products (PP) in the coming quarters.
 Gross margin and EBITDA margin trends.
 Success of new launches in skin care, hair care, oral
care and processed foods.
 Level of competitive activity by players like ITC,
P&G, Godrej Consumer, Colgate and L'Oreal.

1QFY13 revenue grew 14% YoY, EBITDA margin
expanded 170bp YoY and Adj PAT grew 28% YoY.
 Soaps & detergents sales grew 23.7% while EBIT
grew 63%, as margins expanded 300bp to 12.2%.
Laundry products reported robust double-digit
growth.
 Personal products sales grew 16.7%, with healthy
performance in Skin Care, Hair Care and Oral Care.
 Over FY12-14, we expect double-digit growth to
continue in the Personal Products segment, with
~25% EBIT margin. Also, Soaps & detergents margins
should sustain at ~12%.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Continued high competitive intensity is likely to
keep ad spends at high levels which remains a key
challenge and could restrict margin expansion.
Jun-12
52.5
9.9
20.4
17.2
Mar-12
52.5
10.3
19.8
17.4
Jun-11
52.5
11.8
18.7
17.0
Y/E March
Jun-12
Change (%)
14.6
EBITDA
7,543
Change (%)
10.8
Reported PAT
6,172
Adjusted PAT
5,684
Change (%)
9.1
PAT Margin (%)
10.2
Volume Growth (%) 8.3
S& D EBIT margin (%) 9.2
PP EBIT margin (%) 25.3
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-12
56,105
17.8
8,267
27.8
14.7
6,889
6,525
22.3
11.6
Dec-12
59,561
16.2
9,890
36.4
16.6
7,538
7,622
29.9
12.8
Mar-12
57,659
16.1
8,334
29.8
14.5
6,866
6,636
29.0
11.5
Jun-13
63,788
14.1
9,665
28.1
15.2
13,312
7,265
27.8
11.4
FY12
221,164
12.1
32,913
22.9
14.9
26,914
25,725
22.6
11.6
FY13E
259,476
17.3
39,626
20.4
15.3
32,201
32,201
25.2
12.4
9.8
12.4
24.4
9.1
13.5
25.9
10.0
11.3
26.3
9.0
12.2
25.8
9.3
11.6
25.5
9.0
12.5
25.3
August 27 - 31, 2012
Hindustan Unilever: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
194,011
Other Oper. Income
3,341
Total Revenue
197,352
Change (%)
11.3
COGS
100,569
Gross Profit
96,783
Operating Exp
69,790
EBITDA
26,993
Margin (%)
13.7
Depreciation
2,208
2
Other Income - Recurring 2,520
Profit before Taxes
27,302
Change (%)
0.9
Margin (%)
14.1
Tax
5,488
Deferred Tax
281
Tax Rate (%)
21.1
Profit after Taxes
21,533
Change (%)
2.4
Margin (%)
11.1
Non-rec. (Exp)/Income
1,527
Reported PAT
23,060
2012
217,356
3,808
221,164
12.1
117,378
103,786
70,873
32,913
14.9
2,182
12
2,783
33,502
22.7
15.4
7,776
0
23.2
25,725
19.5
11.8
1,189
26,914
2013E
255,319
4,157
259,476
17.3
135,733
123,744
84,117
39,626
15.3
2,357
70
4,894
42,093
25.6
16.5
9,471
421
23.5
32,201
25.2
12.6
0
32,201
2011
2,160
24,180
26,339
26,339
2012
2,160
32,318
34,477
34,477
2013E
2,160
43,043
45,202
45,202
2014E
2,160
56,167
58,327
58,327
37,596
-15,905
21,692
2,991
26,188
2,097
40,596
-18,250
22,346
2,500
32,571
2,243
43,596
-20,608
22,988
2,500
45,136
2,399
47,096
-23,329
23,768
2,500
59,455
2,566
Curr. Assets, L&A
47,371
53,095
Inventory
28,113
31,348
Account Receivables
9,432
11,131
2,819
3,276
Others
7,007
7,340
73,999
78,277
Account Payables
47,262
52,211
Other Liabilities
19,178
17,428
Provisions
7,558
8,638
Net Current Assets
-26,628 -25,182
26,339
34,477
Sales Growth (%)
Soaps and Detergents
1.5
6.4
Personal Products
15.8
17.1
EBIT Margin (%)
Soaps and Detergents
9.5
11.6
Personal Products
25.6
25.5
E: MOSL Estimates
58,478
35,216
12,591
2,953
7,718
86,300
57,750
18,832
9,718
-27,822
45,202
64,523
39,249
14,033
3,183
8,059
94,485
63,340
20,348
10,798
-29,962
58,327
21.0
14.0
8.2
16.8
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Deferred Charges
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
284,554
4,611
289,164
11.4
151,008
138156
92,949
45,207
15.6
2,721
20
6,386
48,852
16.1
17.2
11,236
489
24.0
37,128
15.3
13.0
0
37,128
(INR Million)
12.5
25.3
12.3
25.3
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
10.0
11.0
12.2
6.5
65.5
11.9
13.3
16.0
7.5
63.0
14.9
16.0
20.9
8.5
57.0
17.2
18.5
27.0
9.5
55.3
38.8
34.8
4.4
29.2
28.9
1.6
31.0
28.9
3.7
24.0
22.1
1.8
26.9
25.0
3.3
20.7
17.1
2.1
81.8
103.7
74.6
97.2
71.2
93.3
63.7
83.8
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
18
7.4
19
6.3
18
5.6
18
4.9
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Int./Div. Received
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
(Incr)/Decr in WC
Change in Deff
CF from Operations
2011
26,993
2,520
-2
-5,488
-2,345
392
22,068
2012
32,913
2,783
-12
-7,776
-989
-146
26,773
2013E
39,626
4,894
-70
-9,471
2,317
-156
37,140
2014E
45,207
6,386
-20
-11,236
2,371
-167
42,540
Extraordinary Items
(Incr)/Decr in FA
CF from Invest.
1,527
-2,028
3,062
2,561
1,189
-2,509
-6,383
-7,703
0
-3,000
-12,566
-15,566
0
-3,500
-14,319
-17,819
-6,136
-22
-6,114
-16,420
-1,568
-24,124
174
0
174
-18,950
163
-18,613
0
0
0
-21,476
-421
-21,897
0
0
0
-24,003
-549
-24,552
Incr/Decr of Cash
506
457
2,314
2,819
Closing Balance
2,819
3,276
FY09 Fifteen month ending (March)
-323
3,276
2,953
168
2,953
3,183
Change in Networth
change in equity
change in reserves
Dividend Paid
Others
69
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation
Company description
Key challenges
A Fortune-500 company, HPCL is an oil refining and
marketing in India with also interests in upstream. It
owns 14.8mmt of refining capacity, split across Mumbai
(6.5mmt) and Vishakapatnam (8.3mmt). It has a crude
and product pipeline network of ~2,100km and sells
~30mmt of petroleum products. HPCL also holds 49%
stake in the new Bhatinda refinery and 16.9% stake in
MRPL. HPCL is a state-owned company, with 51.11%
stake held by Government of India.

Earnings contingent on subsidy sharing: HPCL's
profitability continues to be determined by the
quantum of under-recoveries and sharing
mechanism, rather than fundamentals.
 Bhatinda refinery to boost medium-term growth:
Medium to long-term growth would come from its
9mmtpa grassroot refinery being set up in JV (49%
stake) with Mittal Energy Investments, with an
estimated capex of INR172b.
 Eventual likely deregulation to boost valuations:
Post deregulation and subsidy rationalization,
HPCL's valuations should rise due to improvement
in (1) earnings quality, (2) RoCE/RoE, (3) cash cycle,
and (4) debt levels.

Stock info
HPCL IN
339
311
1.9
395 / 239
-14 / 11 / -23
70
Start of commercial production at Bhatinda refinery
at full utilization levels.
 Subsidy rationalization by the government and
decontrol of diesel prices.
 Timelines on cash transfer for PDS kerosene, and
limiting of LPG cylinders to households.

Of the gross under-recovery of INR107b in 1QFY13,
HPCL received INR33.6b (32%) from upstream and
nil from the government, resulting in net underrecoveries of INR73.2b (68%).
 1QFY13 GRM stood at USD-2.1/bbl v/s USD1.1 in
1QFY12 and USD3.7 in 4QFY12.
 HPCL plans to set up 9mmtpa refinery at Bramer in
Rajasthan.

Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Delays in the diesel deregulation and ad hoc subsidy
sharing.
 Non-commensurate increase in retail fuel prices as
crude prices rise leads to under-recoveries for the
company.
 Ad hoc nature of subsidy sharing impacts profits.
Jun-12
51.1
27.5
7.6
13.8
Mar-12
51.1
26.6
9.0
13.4
Jun-11
51.1
29.1
9.6
10.2
Y/E March
Jun-11
Operating Income
408
Change (%)
39.6
EBITDA
-27
Change (%)
66
EBITDA Margin (%) nm
Reported PAT
-31
Adjusted PAT
-31
Change (%)
nm
PAT Margin (%)
nm
Key Metrics
GRM (USD/bbl)
1.1
Gross under recovery 95
Upstream sharing
32
Govt. sharing
33
Net Under/(Over)reco. 31
As a % of Gross
32.2
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Billion)
Sep-11
370
31.6
-29
nm
nm
-34
-34
nm
nm
Dec-11
479
41.3
36
470
7.5
27
27
1191.6
5.7
Mar-12
524
32.1
55
177
10.4
46
46
312.5
8.8
Jun-12
441
8.0
-89
nm
nm
-92
-92
nm
nm
FY12
1,781
36.1
34
3.0
1.9
9
9
-40.8
0.5
FY13E
1,821
2.2
32
-218
1.7
8
8
-11.8
0.4
1.9
47
16
0
31
66.7
4.8
71
34
66
-28
-39.4
3.7
91
40
85
-34
-36.9
-2.1
107
34
0
73
68.6
3.1
304
121
183
0
0.0
4.4
327
130
197
0
0.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
HPCL: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Net Sales
1,309,342 1,781,392 1,820,739 1,892,506
Change (%)
19.9
36.1
2.2
3.9
Finished Goods
843,135 1,093,707 1,131,891 1,235,601
Raw Materials Cons
366,443 561,189 595,964 574,728
Other Exp
66,677
92,414
61,274
42,941
EBITDA
33,088
34,082
31,610
39,236
% Growth
30.1
3.0
-7.3
24.1
Depreciation
14,070
17,129
18,822
20,297
Interest
8,840
16,977
15,732
13,063
Other Income
13,435
12,222
13,023
8,358
Extraordinary Items (net) -152
-5
0
0
PBT
23,461
12,192
10,078
14,235
Tax
8,071
3,077
2,010
4,571
Total Rate (%)
34.4
25.2
19.9
32.1
PAT
15,390
9,115
8,068
9,664
Adjusted PAT
15,390
9,115
8,068
9,664
Change (%)
18.3
-40.8
-11.5
19.8
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
2011
3,390
122,068
125,458
250,212
31,956
407,626
2012
3,390
127,812
131,202
285,000
31,956
448,158
2013E
3,390
133,461
136,851
250,000
31,956
418,807
2014E
3,390
140,071
143,461
225,000
33,380
401,840
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
296,484
110,039
186,445
37,987
113,350
344,471
127,168
217,303
20,000
113,350
379,471
145,990
233,481
15,000
113,350
416,471
166,287
250,184
8,000
113,350
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
265,910
166,223
26,544
800
71,358
985
196,066
178,018
18,048
69,844
407,626
315,147
192,257
36,174
14,372
71,358
985
217,642
199,977
17,665
97,504
448,158
277,411
198,421
36,973
14,272
26,759
985
220,436
202,642
17,793
56,976
418,807
271,450
201,991
38,431
3,284
26,759
985
241,144
218,343
22,801
30,306
401,840
2013E
53.5
30.5
16.2
4.4
7.8
-3.4
2014E
52.0
31.7
17.0
5.9
8.0
-2.2
Y/E March
Marketing sales (mmt)
Refinery throughput (mmt)
GRM (USD/bbl)
Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)
Prem/(disc)
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
46.0
27.0
14.8
5.0
5.2
-0.2
2012
47.9
29.5
16.2
3.1
8.2
-5.0
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
45.4
143.0
370.1
14.0
30.7
26.9
127.4
387.0
8.5
37.0
23.8
117.0
403.7
6.1
30.0
28.5
144.2
423.2
7.7
31.6
6.9
2.2
8.3
0.2
0.8
4.5
11.6
2.4
8.6
0.2
0.8
2.7
13.1
2.7
8.2
0.1
0.8
2.0
10.9
2.2
6.3
0.1
0.7
2.5
RoE
RoCE
12.8
8.6
7.1
6.8
6.0
6.0
6.9
6.7
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
7.1
4.8
6.4
5.6
7.3
5.0
7.3
4.8
Leverage Ratio
Debt / Equity (x)
2.0
2.2
1.8
1.6
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Sales
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Depreciation
Other op
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg.Capital
(INR Million)
2011
23,461
14,082
-2,456
6,457
-5,645
-25,876
10,024
2012
12,192
17,129
0
16,977
-3,077
-14,090
29,132
2013E
10,078
18,822
0
15,732
-2,010
40,429
83,052
2014E
14,235
20,297
0
13,063
-3,147
15,682
60,129
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP -46,101
Inc from Invst
6,919
-33,810
-30,000
0
0
-30,000
-30,000
0
0
-30,000
-30,000
0
0
-30,000
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
30,408
Interest paid & other Inv -8,933
Dividends Paid
-4,731
16,744
34,788
-16,977
-3,371
14,440
-35,000
-15,732
-2,419
-53,152
-25,000
-13,063
-3,054
-41,117
13,572
800
0
14,372
-100
14,372
0
14,272
-10,988
14,272
0
3,284
Add: Op. Balance
Bank Balance Adj.
Closing Balance
-7,042
2,431
5,410
800
71
HT Media
Company description
HT Media has a diversified portfolio of media assets
with exposure to English, Hindi, Business, Radio, and
online. Hindustan Times (English daily) and Hindustan
(Hindi daily) are ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively in their
respective genres pan-India with a combined
readership base of ~16m. 'Mint' is the second most read
business daily in India. Radio business is concentrated
in four metros. HT Media's online portfolio is focused
on news, networking, jobs and education space.

HT has a strong franchise in Delhi (INR15b+ market)
and Bihar. Its readership share in Delhi is ~50%
(head-to-head with TOI) and ~70% share in the fastgrowing Bihar market.
 Several investments made by HT Media are at an
inflection point. While Radio business posted a
sharp turnaround in FY11, HT Mumbai and Mint are
yet to break even.
 Diversified presence across media platforms. HT is
the only listed print media company with significant
presence in English as well as Hindi.

Break-even of Mint and HT Mumbai business.
 Plans on expansion of radio business with phase III
likely to be introduced.
 HT Media is highly leveraged to macroeconomic
recovery given its lower margin profile and high
exposure to the mature Delhi market.





Key challenges
Lower ad spends led by macro slowdown, especially
given high exposure to metro markets like Mumbai
and Delhi.
 Weak INR results in higher cost of newsprint.

Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
HTML IN
235
85
0.4
157 / 82
-15 / -37 / -49
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
72

1QFY13 revenue declined 1% YoY/QoQ to INR4.9b
(9% below our estimate of INR5.4b).
EBITDA declined 26% YoY to INR669m (v/s our
estimate of INR684m), primarily due to sluggish
revenue growth. EBITDA margin declined ~450bp
YoY to 13.7%. Raw material cost as a percentage of
revenue increased ~160bp QoQ to 36.3%.
PAT declined 21% YoY to INR407m (20% above our
estimate).
Ad revenue declined 3% YoY to INR3.73b (9% below
our estimate) despite a 5% YoY growth in the Hindi
segment. Circulation revenue grew 8-9% YoY/QoQ
to INR525m.
1QFY13 EBITDA performance was broadly in line
with our expectations, despite significant revenue
shortfall, as the company was able to keep costs
under control.
HT Media does not expect meaningful inflation in
its cost base for the rest of FY13.
Jun-12
68.8
10.4
12.5
8.3
Mar-12
68.8
11.2
12.1
7.8
Jun-11
68.8
13.2
12.6
5.4
Y/E March
Jun-11
Revenue
4,969
YoY Change(%)
22.9
EBITDA
903
YoY Change(%)
13.0
PAT
515
Adjusted PAT
515
YoY Change(%)
24.4
PAT Margin(%)
10.4
Ad revenue growth (%) 17
- English
18
- Hindi
15
Circulation rev. gr. (%)
3
-English
4
-Hindi
3
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
4,931
10.7
713
-9.9
14.4
438
438
13.0
8.9
Dec-11
5,266
13.2
777
-12.0
14.8
482
482
0.8
9.1
Mar-12
4,941
5.0
481
-45.1
9.7
220
220
-58.5
4.4
Jun-12
4,899
-1.4
669
-25.9
13.7
407
407
-21.0
8.3
FY12
20,107
12.6
2,873
-14.2
14.3
1,655
1,655
-8.5
8.2
FY13E
20,144
0.2
2,558
-10.9
12.7
1,437
1,437
-13.2
7.1
12
8
24
21
34
16
10
11
8
7
0
10
3
-4
21
3
-15
13
-3
-6
5
8
-3
13
10
8
17
8
4
10
-2
-6
8
9
-2
14
August 27 - 31, 2012
HT Media: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Tax rate (%)
PAT
Minority Interest
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adjustments
Adjusted PAT
(INR Million)
2011
17,861
24.2
3,357
18.8
842
236
291
2,571
713
27.7
1,858
49
1,809
33
0
1,809
2012
20,030
12.1
2,869
14.3
916
362
750
2,341
626
26.7
1,715
60
1,655
-9
0
1,655
2013E
20,144
0.6
2,558
12.7
923
405
774
2,006
401
20.0
1,605
167
1,437
-13
-160
1,277
2011
470
4,012
8,540
13,022
3,122
1,299
0
17,444
2012
470
4,012
9,988
14,470
3,462
1,360
460
19,752
2013E
470
4,012
11,118
15,600
3,281
1,527
460
20,868
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Share Premium
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Minority Interest
Capital Employed
2014E
22,329
10.8
2,899
13.0
964
411
816
2,340
468
20.0
1,872
203
1,669
16
-187
1,482
(INR Million)
2014E
470
4,012
12,438
16,920
3,568
1,730
460
22,678
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Deferred Tax Assets
Investments
12,127
4,077
8,050
194
86
7,595
12,928
4,993
7,935
125
807
8,320
13,432
5,915
7,516
125
897
8,320
14,101
6,879
7,222
125
897
8,320
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Other current assets
7,557
1,456
2,525
1,152
2,109
315
8,914
1,819
2,757
1,571
2,320
447
10,516
1,849
2,887
3,000
2,333
447
13,302
2,055
3,214
5,000
2,586
447
6,037
3,176
2,862
1,520
17,444
6,349
3,224
3,125
2,565
19,752
6,506
3,304
3,202
4,010
20,868
7,188
3,650
3,538
6,114
22,678
Creditors
Prov. & other liabilities
Net Current Assets
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) (%)
2011
7.7
26.1
11.3
60.9
0.4
5
2012
7.0
-8.5
10.9
67.4
0.4
7
2013E
5.4
-22.8
10.0
72.9
0.5
10
2014E
6.3
16.1
11.2
79.4
0.6
8
Valuation
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
11.0
7.5
5.0
0.9
1.4
0.4
12.1
7.8
5.8
0.8
1.3
0.5
15.6
8.5
6.0
0.8
1.2
0.6
13.5
7.6
4.9
0.6
1.1
0.7
RoE
RoCE
14.9
13.0
11.0
10.5
7.7
9.2
8.3
9.8
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
52
30
80
2.2
50
33
69
2.3
52
33
69
2.3
53
34
69
2.6
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
2011
3,357
291
-236
-977
395
2,831
2012
2,869
750
-362
-887
-723
1,646
2013E
2,558
774
-405
-491
-177
2,260
2014E
2,899
816
-411
-468
-291
2,545
-679
-3,519
-733
-725
-1,458
-504
0
-504
-670
0
-670
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
-180
Dividends Paid
-99
Other Financing Activities 1,032
753
340
-110
1
231
-181
-147
0
-328
287
-162
0
125
419
1,152
1,571
1,429
1,571
3,000
2,000
3,000
5,000
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
EBITDA
Other Income
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
CF from Op.Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
65
1,087
1,152
73
ICICI Bank
Company description
Key challenges
ICICI Bank (ICICIBC) has effectively used consolidation
phase in business (FY08-10) to structurally improve
balance sheet profile, bring in efficiency and reduce
risk. Combination of all the above factors has led to
sharp improvement in core operating profitability and
RoA (1.5% in FY12 v/s 1.1% in FY10). ICICIBC, through its
subsidiaries, is also a leading player in insurance and
asset management.

Rapid loan growth in corporate segment, particularly
in infrastructure and power, could lead to higher
slippages.
 ICICI Bank is highly leveraged to growth; slower than
expected loan growth can impact earnings and
valuations.
Continued better than expected performance on
asset quality and improvement in fee income.
 Life insurance venture holds significant value.
Increase in FDI limit in insurance/listing would lead
to potential unlocking of value for the company.

NIM has significantly improved from 2.2% in FY08 to
2.7% in FY12 (3% in 1QFY13). Strong CASA ratio of
40%+, lower securitization losses, and higher
international NIMs, will help ICICIBC to gradually
improve NIM in FY13 as well. We factor 25bp
improvement in FY13.
 Lower proportion of unsecured loan (1.3% as against
high of 9.8%), loan sourcing via branches rather than
DSAs, and higher provision coverage will help
cushion asset quality. However, there may be some
stress in corporate segment. We have modeled in
credit cost of 75bp in FY13 v/s 42bp in FY12. This
would however be offset by higher NIM, and riskadjusted margin is expected to improve to 2.3% v/s
average of 1.3% (FY08-11).
 Expect excess capitalization (in standalone entity
and international subs) and value unlocking from
insurance venture will ensure dilution-free growth
for next 3-4 years.

Stock info
ICICIBC IN
1153
962
19.9
999 / 641
1/1/1
74
Performance highlights of 1QFY13: Reported loan
growth of 22% led by strong growth in corporate,
SME and international portfolio. Even after the
sharp 30bp+ QoQ improvement in NIM in 4QFY12,
stable NIM QoQ was a positive surprise. Fee income
growth was muted at 4% YoY, and asset quality was
stable.
 Management guidance: Domestic loan growth of
20%, (b) CASA ratio to be maintained in the range
of 38-40%, (c) NIM guidance raised to 3-3.1% from
2.85-2.9% earlier, (d) credit cost maintained at
~75bp for FY13, and (e) fee income growth to be in
low double digits.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
0.0
27.7
62.7
9.6
Mar-12
0.0
26.6
63.2
10.2
Jun-11
0.0
24.9
65.5
9.6
Y/E March
Jun-11
NII
24,109
Change (%)
21.1
Other Income
16,429
Opex
18,200
Operating Profit
22,338
Change (%)
2.1
Provisions
4,539
PAT
13,320
Change (%)
29.8
NIM (%)
2.6
Loan Gr. YoY (%)
19.7
GNPA (%)
4.4
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
25,064
13.7
17,396
18,922
23,537
6.4
3,188
15,032
21.6
Dec-11
27,120
17.3
18,919
19,168
26,871
14.7
3,411
17,281
20.3
Mar-12
31,048
23.7
22,285
22,216
31,116
35.0
4,693
19,018
31.0
Jun-12
31,929
32.4
18,799
21,235
29,493
32.0
4,659
18,151
36.3
FY12
107,342
19.0
75,028
78,504
103,865
14.8
15,830
64,653
25.5
FY13E
137,069
27.7
85,969
90,880
132,158
27.2
22,443
80,092
23.9
2.6
20.5
4.1
2.7
19.1
3.8
3.0
17.3
3.6
3.0
21.6
3.5
2.7
17.3
3.6
3.0
15.4
3.3
August 27 - 31, 2012
ICICI Bank: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
Interest Income
259,741 335,427
Interest Expended
169,572 228,085
Net Interest Income
90,169 107,342
Change (%)
11.1
19.0
Other Income
66,479
75,028
Net Income
156,648 182,369
Change (%)
0.5
16.4
Operating Exp.
66,172
78,504
Operating Profits
90,475 103,865
Change (%)
-7.0
14.8
Provisions & Cont.
22,868
15,830
PBT
67,607
88,034
Tax
16,093
23,382
Tax Rate (%)
23.8
26.6
PAT
51,514
64,653
Change (%)
28.0
25.5
Dividend (Including Tax)
18,170
21,228
Core PPP*
92,625 103,995
Change (%)
8.3
12.3
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Preference Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
2013E
399,260
262,190
137,069
27.7
85,969
223,038
22.3
90,880
132,158
27.2
22,443
109,715
29,623
27.0
80,092
23.9
28,112
127,158
22.3
2014E
455,433
295,216
160,217
16.9
101,001
261,219
17.1
105,441
155,778
17.9
28,141
127,637
34,462
27.0
93,175
16.3
32,704
148,278
16.6
(INR Million)
2011
15,018
11,518
3,500
539,391
554,409
2012
15,028
11,528
3,500
592,525
607,552
2013E
15,028
11,528
3,500
644,504
659,532
2014E
15,028
11,528
3,500
704,975
720,003
Of which Equity Net Worth 550,909
604,052
656,032
716,503
Deposits
Change (%)
2,256,021 2,555,000 3,082,483 3,707,468
11.7
13.3
20.6
20.3
Of which CASA Deposits
1,016,465 1,110,194 1,259,236 1,474,358
Change (%)
20.7
9.2
13.4
17.1
Borrowings
1,092,043 1,398,149 1,507,768 1,692,315
Other Liabilities & Prov. 159,864 175,770 209,915 251,172
Total Liabilities
4,062,337 4,736,471 5,459,698 6,370,958
Current Assets
340,901 362,293 457,268 526,370
Investments
1,346,860 1,595,600 1,795,050 2,064,308
Change (%)
11.4
18.5
12.5
15.0
Loans
2,163,659 2,537,277 2,927,362 3,451,990
Change (%)
19.4
17.3
15.4
17.9
Net Fixed Assets
47,443
46,147
45,833
47,268
Other Assets
163,475 195,154 234,185 281,022
Total Assets
4,062,337 4,736,471 5,459,698 6,370,958
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR m)
100,343
NNPA (INR m)
24,074
GNPA Ratio
4.5
NNPA Ratio
1.1
76.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
(%)
94,753
18,608
3.6
0.7
80.4
99,327
16,024
3.3
0.5
83.9
114,352
19,118
3.2
0.6
83.3
Ratios
Y/E March
2011
Avg. Yield - Earning Assets 7.7
Avg. Yield on loans
8.3
6.2
4.8
4.7
Interest Spread
2.9
Net Interest Margin
2.7
RoE
Adjusted RoE
RoA
Op. Exps./Net Income*
* ex treasury
Loan/Deposit Ratio
CASA Ratio %
Invest./Deposit Ratio
G-Sec/Invest. Ratio
CAR
Tier 1
2012
2013E
2014E
8.5
9.4
6.6
5.7
5.9
2.8
2.7
8.7
9.8
6.6
5.6
6.0
3.1
3.0
8.6
9.6
6.7
5.5
5.8
3.1
3.0
9.7
12.2
1.3
65.3
42.4
11.3
13.3
1.5
68.0
41.1
12.9
15.1
1.6
65.7
38.5
13.7
15.7
1.6
64.8
38.7
41.7
42.6
72.4
9.0
43.0
44.8
81.6
11.1
41.7
46.4
89.5
12.9
41.6
47.2
99.5
14.1
95.9
45.1
59.7
47.6
19.5
13.2
99.3
43.5
62.5
54.5
18.5
12.7
95.0
40.9
58.2
56.9
17.0
11.8
93.1
39.8
55.7
56.8
15.5
11.0
516.6
7.9
1.9
402.4
10.2
2.0
391.9
2.0
56.1
25.4
17.1
14.2
16.5
1.7
561.7
8.7
1.7
447.5
11.2
1.7
438.4
1.7
69.5
23.9
13.8
10.8
20.8
2.2
614.1
9.3
1.6
499.9
11.7
1.5
489.1
1.5
80.8
16.3
11.9
9.7
24.2
2.5
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
478.7
BV Growth (%)
3.4
Price-BV (x)
ABV (for Subsidaries, INR) 365.2
ABV Growth (%)
4.9
Price-ABV (x)
ABV(for Subs Invst&NPA,INR)351.6
Adjusted Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
44.7
EPS Growth (%)
23.9
Price-Earnings (x)
Adj. Price-Earnings (x)
14.0
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
75
Idea Cellular
Company description
Idea Cellular, an Aditya Birla Group company, is India's
third largest wireless operator with a revenue market
share of ~15%. Idea operates in all 22 Indian telecom
service areas, of which 13 are classified as established
service areas and balance nine as new service areas.
Idea carries 1.4b+ minutes on a daily basis (among top
10 globally) and has a strong ~20% revenue market
share in its established circles.

Idea is the fastest growing major wireless company
in India. Over FY08-12, its revenue market share has
increased from 10% to 15%.
 Strong incumbency advantage in eight established
circles and spectrum allocation in the 900MHz band
in nine circles.
 Well positioned to capture rural growth given deep
coverage and favorable frequency allocation.
 Industry consolidation is inevitable given continued
high losses of challengers and stretched balance
sheets across operators.

Court is expected to be held in November 2012.
The auction is expected to set the base price for all
future spectrum payments.
 Potential monetization of tower assets.
 Final government decision on the issue of spectrum
re-farming.
 Ramp-up of 3G subscriber base post recent sharp




Key challenges
Hyper-competition in the Indian mobile business.
 Regulatory uncertainty and significant potential
liability of ~INR300b related to allocated spectrum
if incumbents are required to pay in line with the
announced reserve price of INR28b per MHz for panIndia spectrum in 1,800MHz band.

Stock info
IDEA IN
3,310
76
4.5
104 / 71
-12 / -16 / -29
76

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others

1QFY13 proforma EBITDA declined ~5% QoQ but
grew 19% YoY to INR14.4b (v/s estimate of INR15.5b).
Revenue grew 22% YoY and 2.5% QoQ to INR55b
(v/s estimate of INR55.3b) led by ~5% QoQ traffic
growth but offset by 2.5% RPM decline (second
consecutive quarter of QoQ decline).
EBITDA margin stood at 26.1%, down ~200bp QoQ
on an adjusted basis. Margin decline was largely
led by network costs (up 100bp) and roaming and
access charges (up 60bp).
Proforma PAT increased 32% YoY but declined 32%
QoQ to INR2.34b.
Capex guidance for FY13 remains unchanged at
INR35b.
We expect consolidated EBITDA CAGR of 20% over
FY12-14E driven by 15-16% CAGR in revenue/
wireless traffic.
Jun-12
46.0
6.9
44.8
2.4
Mar-12
46.0
6.2
45.2
2.6
Jun-11
46.0
8.0
43.0
3.0
Y/E March
Jun-11
Revenue
45,207
YoY Change(%)
23.7
EBITDA
12,040
YoY Change(%)
35.5
Adjusted PAT
1,773
YoY Change(%)
-12.0
PAT Margin(%)
3.9
Mobile Traffic (B Min)109
QoQ Change(%)
6.5
Mobile RPM (INR)
0.41
QoQ Change(%)
0.9
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
46,199
26.3
11,866
35.0
25.7
1,058
-41.1
2.3
Dec-11
50,308
27.2
13,446
41.8
26.7
2,010
-17.3
4.0
Mar-12
53,697
27.8
15,071
50.2
28.1
3,429
69.4
6.4
Jun-12
55,037
21.7
14,355
19.2
26.1
2,342
32.1
4.3
FY12
195,411
26.0
50,924
34.3
26.1
7,231
-19.5
3.7
FY13E
231,314
18.4
60,919
19.6
26.3
11,707
61.9
5.1
106
-2.2
0.43
4.1
114
7.3
0.43
1.2
124
9.1
0.42
-2.0
131
2.7
0.41
-2.5
453
556
0.42
0.41
August 27 - 31, 2012
Idea Cellular: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Revenues
Change (%)
Total Expenses
(INR Million)
2011
155,032
24.5
117,127
2012
195,412
26.0
144,489
2013E
231,315
18.4
170,397
2014E
260,293
12.5
187,317
37,906
24.5
23,973
13,933
3,965
50,924
26.1
29,814
21,110
10,557
60,919
26.3
34,474
26,445
9,706
72,976
28.0
36,023
36,953
8,709
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
9,968
982
9.9
10,553
3,322
31.5
16,739
5,032
30.1
28,244
8,473
30.0
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
PAT after EO
8,986
-5.8
8,986
7,231
-19.5
7,231
11,707
61.9
11,707
19,770
68.9
19,770
EBITDA
% of Gross Sales
Depn.&Amortization
EBIT
Net Interest
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Add. Paid up Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Other Liabilities
Capital Employed
2011
33,033
139,406
-49,440
122,999
120,228
3,099
246,326
2012
33,088
139,406
-41,994
130,501
133,372
6,273
270,146
2013E
33,097
139,406
-30,334
142,170
124,050
7,129
273,349
2014E
33,097
139,406
-10,563
161,940
100,035
7,129
269,104
Gross Block
Less : Depreciation
Net Block
373,505
112,128
261,377
418,016
141,040
276,976
455,316
175,514
279,802
480,181
211,537
268,644
42,378
542
4,057
14,777
23,002
36,192
688
5,144
2,497
27,863
58,823
1,136
10,324
3,632
43,731
65,737
1,278
11,618
3,632
49,210
57,429
-15,051
246,326
43,022
-6,830
270,146
65,277
-6,454
273,349
65,277
460
269,104
Curr. Assets
Inventories
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Curr. Liab. & Prov.
Net Curr. Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
2.7
10.0
37.2
2.2
11.2
39.5
3.5
14.0
43.0
6.0
16.9
48.9
27.7
7.6
9.3
2.3
2.0
34.4
6.7
7.5
1.9
1.9
21.3
5.4
6.1
1.6
1.8
12.6
4.5
4.7
1.3
1.5
7.6
5.2
5.7
5.4
8.6
6.6
13.0
9.3
10
0.75
10
0.78
16
0.86
16
0.97
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.6
2011
37,906
-3,965
-25
23,098
57,014
2012
50,924
-10,557
-148
-20,156
20,063
2013E
60,919
-9,706
-4,176
712
47,748
2014E
72,976
-8,709
-8,473
-6,914
48,879
-98,145
-98,145
-45,413
-45,413
-37,300
-37,300
-24,865
-24,865
Issue of Shares
69
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
41,635
-2
41,704
-74
13,144
-2
13,070
9
-9,322
-2
-9,313
0
-24,015
-2
-24,015
-12,280
14,777
2,497
1,135
2,497
3,632
0
3,632
3,632
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity Ratio(x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Op.Profit/(Loss) bef Tax
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
CF from Op.Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
573
14,204
14,777
77
IDFC
Company description
Key challenges
Incorporated in 1997, Infrastructure Development
Finance Company (IDFC) is India's leading infrastructure
finance player. Besides infrastructure financing, IDFC
has interests in broking, asset management and
investment banking. It has strategic investments in
institutions like NSE and ARCIL. As of June 2012, IDFC's
loan book was INR500b and total asset base INR630b.

Over FY08-12, IDFC posted 25% loan CAGR to
INR500b.Considering lumpy nature of business,
future growth can be similar if there is any change
in macro environment led by policy action.
 IDFC maintained spreads at 2.2%+ over the years. In
an uncertain environment and high interest rate
scenario, the management does not plan to grow
aggressively, thereby spreads are likely to be
protected at current levels.
 Asset quality is healthy with gross NPAs at 0.3% and
net NPAs at 0.2%. IDFC has negligible exposure to
state utilities, which reduces the threat to asset
quality to a great extent in the current scenario.
 IDFC has been prudently making provisions, which
provides cushion in case of any asset quality shocks.
Outstanding loan loss provisions stand at 1.6% of
loans as on June 2012.

Stock info
IDFC IN
1,513
141
3.8
161 / 90
0 / -2 / 20
78

Expected monetary easing and government
addressing key issues faced by the infrastructure
sector would be major catalysts in further improving
IDFC's growth and profitability outlook.
Performance highlights of 1QFY13: Loan growth of
34% YoY and 4% QoQ; TTM basis spreads improved
10bp to 2.5%; healthy fee income growth led by
strong sanctions growth; muted trading gains; stable
asset quality; higher provisions for investments;
significant control over cost.
 Guidance for FY13: 15-20% loan growth, stable
spreads at 2.2-2.4%, no significant pressure points
on asset quality for now.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Over 40% of IDFC's exposure is to the power
segment, which in an uncertain environment poses
a threat to asset quality due to execution risks,
inadequate fuel supply, and delays in getting
requisite clearances.
 Outlook for the capital market business is
challenging and would act as a drag on earnings.
Jun-12
0.0
35.1
50.2
14.7
Mar-12
0.0
34.7
49.6
15.7
Jun-11
0.0
36.9
47.1
16.0
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Int. Income
10,948
YoY Change (%)
17.1
Profit on Sale of Inv. 163
Other Op. income 1,909
Net Op. Income
13,020
Pre Prov. Profit
11,935
YoY Change (%)
21.6
PAT
8,445
YoY Change (%)
21.6
Loan Growth (%)
22.2
Spreads (%, Cumu.) 2.30
GNPA (%)
0.83
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
12,435
14.7
869
1,430
14,734
13,547
17.9
9,707
20.2
Dec-11
12,364
15.1
880
1,306
14,549
13,483
9.8
9,813
10.1
Mar-12
17,434
27.2
791
1,233
19,458
18,491
17.1
13,261
16.1
Jun-12
13,042
19.1
202
2,223
15,467
14,199
19.0
10,019
18.6
FY12
52,121
16.3
2,702
6,939
61,762
57,456
16.4
41,226
16.6
FY13E
63,852
22.5
2,500
8,524
74,876
69,622
21.2
49,225
19.4
19.5
2.29
0.82
21.2
2.27
0.82
20.3
2.27
0.74
19.4
2.27
0.79
20.3
2.27
0.74
22.6
NA
0.74
August 27 - 31, 2012
IDFC: Financials and valuation
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Interest Income*
40,186
54,841
71,296
81,757
Interest Expended
23,875
34,562
44,746
50,312
Net Interest Income
16,311
20,279
26,550
31,444
Change (%)
44.8
24.3
30.9
18.4
Other Income
9,144
9,509
6,786
8,366
Fees Based income
6,413
4,495
5,162
6,092
Principal Invt-Incl Carry Inc**2,350 3,890
1,424
2,024
Miscellanous Income
382
1,124
200
250
Net Income
25,455
29,788
33,336
39,810
Change (%)
20.7
17.0
11.9
19.4
Operating Expenses
5,321
5,216
5,734
6,867
Operating Income
20,135
24,573
27,603
32,943
Change (%)
29.4
22.0
12.3
19.3
Other Provisions
2,346
2,846
3,716
3,675
PBT
17,788
21,727
23,886
29,268
Tax
4,998
6,219
7,166
9,073
Tax Rate (%)
28.1
28.6
30.0
31.0
PAT
12,791
15,508
16,720
20,195
Change (%)
20.5
21.2
7.8
20.8
(MI)/Associate profit
25.7
32.0
0.0
10.0
Consolidated PAT
12,817
15,540
16,720
20,205
Change (%)
20.7
21.3
7.6
20.8
Proposed Dividend
2,925
3,478
3,762
4,546
*Includes debt trading gains; ** Excludes debt trading gains
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Borrowings
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Goodwill
Net Fixed Assets
Deferred Tax Assets
Net current Assets
Total Assets
August 27 - 31, 2012
(INR Million)
2011
14,609
89,475
104,084
2
371,439
39.9
475,526
69,611
49.5
376,523
50.4
11,638
4,469
2,480
10,804
475,526
2012
15,124
107,733
122,856
178
472,750
27.3
595,784
84,857
21.9
481,846
28.0
9,668
4,165
3,202
12,047
595,784
2013E
15,124
120,052
135,175
178
571,467
20.9
706,820
102,102
20.3
578,215
20.0
9,468
4,248
3,202
9,584
706,820
2014E
15,124
134,937
150,061
178
692,072
21.1
842,311
120,345
17.9
693,858
20.0
9,468
4,333
3,202
11,106
842,311
Ratios
Y/E March
2011
Avg. Yield - Infra. loans
11.0
Avg. Yield - Earning Assets 11.0
7.5
Interest Spread on loans
3.5
Net Interest Margin
3.8
2012
2013E
2014E
11.2
10.9
8.2
2.7
3.7
11.8
11.6
8.6
3.0
4.0
11.3
11.1
8.0
3.1
4.0
RoE
Core RoE
RoA
Other Income./Net Income
14.7
17.8
3.2
59.4
35.9
13.7
16.2
2.9
63.0
31.9
13.0
15.0
2.6
62.8
20.4
14.2
16.1
2.6
61.5
21.0
Total Assets/Equity(x)
Debt/Equity (x)
Fee income/Net Income
4.6
3.6
25.2
20.9
55.6
4.8
3.8
15.1
17.5
58.4
5.2
4.2
15.5
17.2
52.3
5.6
4.6
15.3
17.3
52.2
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
71.2
81.2
89.4
99.2
Price-BV (x)
1.7
1.6
1.4
Adjusted BV (INR)*
60.6
72.7
80.9
90.7
Price-ABV (x)
1.6
1.5
1.3
EPS (INR)
8.8
10.3
11.1
13.4
EPS Growth (%)
7.4
17.1
7.6
20.8
Price-Earnings (x)
13.7
12.7
10.5
OPS (Rs)
13.8
16.2
18.3
21.8
OPS Growth (%)
15.2
17.9
12.3
19.3
Price-OP (x)
8.7
7.7
6.5
Dividend per Share (INR)
2.0
2.3
2.5
3.0
Dividend Yield (%)
1.6
1.8
2.1
E: MOSL Estimates; *Adj. for Inv. in subsidaries, Prices adj. for
other ventures
79
Indusind Bank
Company description
Key challenges
IndusInd Bank (IIB) is one of India's new generation
banks, established in 1994. The team, led by Managing
Director Mr Romesh Sobti, has been instrumental in
improving the core operating performance of the bank
(RoA improved from 0.6% in FY09 to 1.6% in FY12). Focus
of the management is to achieve scale while
maintaining profitability.

Capitalizing on its niche presence in vehicle
financing (48% of overall loans) and strong
corporate relationship, IIB has been able to deliver
above-industry level loan growth. Over FY12-14, IIB
is expected to grow at ~25% and gain market share,
with focus being on core retail liabilities.
 With ~50% of deposits wholesale in nature, IIB is
leveraged to systemic interest rates and liquidity.
NIM is expected to improve in 2HFY13 and FY14 with
(a) 50% of loan book fixed in nature, (b) increasing
share of consumer finance, (c) expected benefit of
fall in interest rates on wholesale deposits, and
(d) increasing traction in CASA deposits.
 While asset quality remains strong, moderating
economic growth coupled with high exposure in CV
segment remains a concern. However, superior
margins, focused fee income strategy (1.8%, a key
driver for RoA) and control over C/I ratio will keep
core operating profitability strong.

Stock info
IIB IN
469
333
2.8
352 / 222
-4 / 10 / 31
80
Faster than expected fall in interest rate could lead
to surprise on margin.
 Easing liquidity condition and pick-up in GDP growth
could allay concerns regarding slippages especially
on vehicle financing portfolio.

Performance highlights of 1QFY13: Margins
declined 7bp QoQ to 3.2% led by increase in cost of
funds (+35bp QoQ). Growth in loan (+6% QoQ, 31%
YoY) and SA deposits (+9% QoQ, 59% YoY) remains
strong. Fee income (+44% YoY) and asset quality
(GNPA up 5% QoQ) also remain impressive despite
challenging macro environment.
 Management guidance: Loan growth of 25-30% over
FY13/14, (b) CASA ratio of 35% by FY14 v/s 28% at
end of 1QFY13, (c) Fee income growth to be faster
than balance sheet growth, and (d) credit cost
guidance of ~70bp for FY13.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Strong growth in consumer finance division
particularly vehicle finance could result in higher
than expected delinquency and credit cost.
 The strong turnaround in IIB's operations is driven
by the change in top management. Attrition at the
senior level could impact performance of the bank.
Jun-12
19.4
8.7
49.4
22.5
Mar-12
19.5
7.9
50.6
22.1
Jun-11
19.5
8.1
51.0
21.4
Y/E March
Jun-11
NII
3,900
Change (%)
31.9
Other Income
2,154
Opex
2,937
Operating Profit
3,117
Change (%)
35.2
Provisions
446
PAT
1,802
Change (%)
52.0
NIM (%)
3.4
Loan Gr. YoY (%)
31.4
GNPA (%)
1.1
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
4,192
27.1
2,392
3,254
3,330
27.2
470
1,931
45.0
Dec-11
4,307
18.6
2,651
3,465
3,492
19.9
428
2,060
33.9
Mar-12
4,644
19.7
2,921
3,774
3,791
27.2
460
2,234
30.1
Jun-12
4,841
24.1
3,188
3,989
4,040
29.6
535
2,363
31.1
FY12
17,042
23.8
10,118
13,430
13,730
26.9
1,804
8,026
39.0
FY13E
21,44
25.8
13,581
17,481
17,543
27.8
2,717
10,007
24.7
3.4
28.5
1.1
3.3
29.7
1.0
3.3
34.0
1.0
3.2
31.2
1.0
3.3
34.0
1.0
3.4
25.0
1.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
Indusind Bank: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
Interest Income
35,894
53,592
Interest Expense
22,129
36,549
Net Interest Income
13,765
17,042
Change (%)
55.3
23.8
Non Interest Income
7,137
10,118
Net Income
20,902
27,160
Change (%)
45.2
29.9
Operating Expenses
10,085
13,430
10,817
13,730
Change (%)
53.7
26.9
2,019
1,804
PBT
8,798
11,927
Tax
3,025
3,900
Tax Rate (%)
34.4
32.7
PAT
5,773
8,026
Change (%)
64.8
39.0
932
1,196
Core PPP*
9,764
12,680
Change (%)
67.6
29.9
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Deposits
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings
Other Liabilities & Prov.
Total Liabilities
Current Assets
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
2013E
69,126
47,684
21,442
25.8
13,581
35,024
29.0
17,481
17,543
27.8
2,717
14,825
4,818
32.5
10,007
24.7
1,464
15,763
24.3
(INR Million)
2011
4,660
35,842
40,502
343,654
28.7
93,309
47.6
55,254
16,948
456,358
40,246
135,508
30.3
261,656
27.3
5,965
12,983
456,358
2012
4,677
42,740
47,417
423,615
23.3
115,631
23.9
86,820
18,108
575,961
55,396
145,719
7.5
350,640
34.0
6,568
17,638
575,961
2013E
4,677
51,223
55,900
529,519
25.0
155,622
34.6
92,687
20,131
698,237
60,182
171,949
18.0
438,299
25.0
6,642
21,165
698,237
2014E
4,677
62,216
66,893
661,899
25.0
205,836
32.3
102,000
24,247
855,040
70,997
202,900
18.0
547,874
25.0
6,812
26,456
855,040
2,659
728
1.01
0.28
72.6
3,471
947
0.98
0.27
72.7
5,124
1,378
1.16
0.31
73.1
8,483
2,044
1.53
0.37
75.9
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR M)
NNPA (INR M)
GNPA Ratio
NNPA Ratio
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
80,467
52,749
27,719
29.3
17,404
45,122
28.8
21,806
23,316
32.9
4,136
19,179
6,233
32.5
12,946
29.4
1,893
20,986
33.1
Ratios
Y/E March
Avg. Yield on loans
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
RoE
RoA
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
9.9
12.1
6.1
6.2
6.0
3.7
3.8
11.5
13.8
7.7
8.0
8.0
3.4
3.6
11.9
14.3
7.7
8.4
8.5
3.5
3.7
11.3
13.4
7.4
7.6
7.4
3.7
3.9
19.3
1.4
61.7
30.1
34.1
19.2
1.6
68.2
33.6
37.3
20.2
1.6
69.0
33.7
38.8
21.8
1.7
65.6
33.4
38.6
Cost/Income*
50.3
51.3
52.6
37.9
36.1
36.7
87.0
84.2
83.3
0.9
1.0
1.0
* ex treasury and Recoveries from written off accounts
Loans/Deposit Ratio
CASA Ratio
CAR
Tier 1
51.0
36.7
84.2
1.0
76.1
27.2
39.4
74.0
15.9
12.3
82.8
27.3
34.4
81.7
13.9
11.4
82.8
29.4
32.5
80.1
12.6
10.7
82.8
31.1
30.7
81.6
11.6
10.1
82.1
55.7
96.7
17.8
3.4
95.4
3.5
17.2
38.5
19.4
2.2
0.7
115.0
18.9
2.9
113.0
2.9
21.4
24.7
15.5
2.7
0.8
138.6
20.6
2.4
135.8
2.5
27.7
29.4
12.0
3.5
1.0
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
Change (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
Change (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
81.1
12.4
45.3
2.0
(%)
81
Info Edge (India)
Company description
Info Edge is among the leading internet companies in
India. It runs four major businesses:
(1) Naukri.com, India's no. 1 job site,
(2) Jeevansathi.com, India's fastest growing
matrimonial portal,
(3) 99acres.com, India's No.1 real estate portal, and
(4) Shiksha.com, an education portal.
The company also owns Quadrangle - an offline
executive search firm, and Naukri Gulf (its foray into
the Middle East market). Info Edge also owns Brijj.com,
a professional networking site, and Allcheckdeals.com,
an online real estate brokerage firm which is run as a
subsidiary company.
property sites. (3) Jeevansathi ranks third in the
highly competitive online matrimonial space.

Reported hiring activity as per Naukri's Job Speak
index was robust in the first month of the financial
year, growing 12% YoY.
Key challenges
The company, with a view to tap into the growing Indian
internet market, also invests in early stage companies
and start-up ventures.
Slowdown in GDP growth could impact the
company's business.
 Increasing threat from competition – Naukri is faced
up with Monster's Trovix platform and Jeevansathi
operates in a crowded space where new entrants
are focusing on specific communities in India.
 Greater adoption of social networking sites (such
as LinkedIn and Facebook) as a medium of online
job search.
Healthy job market in the growing economy, along
with factors such as IT/ITeS hiring and internet
penetration directly aid the growth of singlemost
important segment Naukri.
 Leadership across key businesses: (1) Naukri is the
clear market leader with ~60% market share in the
online jobs space. (2) 99acres.com enjoys the
highest traffic share amongst all the real estate

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
INFOE IN
109
356
0.7
400 / 274
4 / 10 / -4
82
1QFY13 revenue at INR1.1b was up 22% YoY and flat
sequentially. EBITDA margin was 34.8%, down
170bp YoY. PAT margin was 21.7%, down 50bp YoY.
 The company cited lower economic growth and a
more subdued environment leading to deceleration
in the recruitment market, driving company's
cautious outlook for FY13.

Stock info
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others

Jun-12
53.5
10.8
29.4
6.4
Mar-12
53.6
10.1
30.0
6.3
Jun-11
54.1
7.3
31.9
6.8
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Sales
867
Changes (%)
31.5
EBITDA
316
Changes (%)
54.7
EBITDA Margin (%)
36.5
Reported PAT
256
Adjusted PAT
256
Changes YoY (%)
48.3
PAT Margin (%)
29.6
Resumes on Naukri (m) 26
Unique Naukri cust. 22,900
Avg Res. added daily 12,000
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
911
28.0
323
50.8
35.4
282
282
57.9
31.0
Dec-11
920
22.5
349
26.0
37.9
289
289
31.6
31.4
Mar-12
1,073
30.0
418
49.0
38.9
399
402
71.8
37.9
Jun-12
1,060
22.3
369
16.6
34.8
318
318
24.1
30.0
27
23,500
12,000
28
23,500
11,000
29
25,000
9,000
30
25,000
13,000
FY11
3,223
35.9
829
41.1
25.7
840
840
47.4
26.1
FY12
3,771
21.6
1,174
41.6
31.1
1,226
1,226
46.0
32.5
25
29
42,000 46,000
12,000 11,000
August 27 - 31, 2012
Info Edge (India): Financials and valuation
Y/E March
2009
Net Sales
2,458
Other Income
279
Total Income
2,737
Power & Fuel Cost
25
Employee Cost
899
Other Manufacturing Exp.
113
Selling and Admn Expenses 692
Miscellaneous Expenses
67
Total Expenditure
1,796
EBITDA
662
Operating Profit
941
Interest
17
Gross Profit
924
Depreciation
71
Profit before Tax
853
Tax
269
Fringe Benefit Tax
9
Deferred Tax
-8
Net Profit
582
Minority Interest (after tax)
0
Profit/Loss of Associate Co. -12
PAT after MI & P/L Asso.Co.
570
Extraordinary Items
57
Adjusted Net Profit
513
(INR Million)
2010
2,371
307
2,678
24
882
116
651
111
1,783
588
895
20
875
65
810
332
0
-15
492
-34
-6
521
-23
544
Balance Sheet
2011
3,223
329
3,552
30
1,232
147
803
182
2,394
829
1,159
23
1,136
80
1,056
426
0
-25
656
23
-1
631
30
601
2012
3,919
509
4,428
32
1,434
139
864
276
2,745
1,174
1,683
22
1,662
83
1,578
512
0
17
1,050
30
14
1,033
51
982
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2009
Share Capital
273
Reserves Total
2,951
Equity Application Money
0
Total Shareholders Funds
3,224
Minority Interest
0
Total Debt
4
Other Liabilities
0
Total Liabilities
3,228
2010
273
3,446
28
3,747
0
6
0
3,753
2011
546
3,805
0
4,351
16
3
1
4,371
2012
546
4,727
0
5,273
-25
3
1
5,251
Gross Block
528
Less: Accumulated Depn.
226
Net Block
302
Capital Work in Progress
83
Investments
183
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Sundry Debtors
35
Cash and Bank
3,221
Loans and Advances
180
Total Current Assets
3,436
Current Liabilities
734
Provisions
61
Total Current Liabilities
795
Net Current Assets
2,641
Deferred Tax Assets
19
Net Deferred Tax
19
Other Assets
0
Total Assets
3,228
581
287
294
69
1,141
919
332
587
89
2,628
936
389
548
94
3,152
80
2,791
240
3,110
812
84
896
2,214
34
34
0
3,753
149
1,319
122
1,590
1,305
190
1,496
94
59
59
914
4,371
81
2,216
154
2,451
1,618
234
1,852
599
42
42
817
5,251
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Book Value
Key Ratios
Current Ratio
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Assets
Debtors
PBIDTM (%)
PBITM (%)
PBDTM (%)
CPM (%)
APATM (%)
RoCE (%)
RoNW (%)
Payout (%)
2009
2010
2011
2012
5.2
29.5
4.7
34.1
5.7
39.9
9.3
48.3
2.3
3.9
2.0
1.2
4.9
70.0
50.3
38.3
35.4
37.6
26.6
23.7
29.5
19.8
3.5
4.3
41.6
42.3
37.7
35.0
36.9
23.5
20.8
23.8
14.1
4.2
4.3
28.2
47.7
36.0
33.5
35.3
22.8
20.3
26.6
16.2
6.3
4.2
34.1
73.4
43.0
40.8
42.4
28.9
26.8
33.3
21.8
10.6
2010
2011
2012
3,221
376
2,791
1,038
2,076
1,008
-784
-1,728
-180
-22
-24
-49
-430
-714
779
2,791
2,076
2,856
21
35,500
11,000
25
42,000
12,000
29
46,000
11,000
Cash Flow Statement (INR Million)
Y/E March
2009
Cash and Cash Equivalents
at Beginning of the year
485
Net Cash fr. Oper. Activities
198
Net Cash Used in
Investing Activities
2,563
Net Cash Used in
Financing Activities
-25
Net Inc/(Dec) in Cash and
Cash Equivalent
2,736
at End of the year
3,221
Key Operating Metrics (Nos)
Resumes on Naukri - m
17
Unique Naukri customers 34,000
Avg Resumes added daily 14,000
83
Infosys
Company description
Key challenges
Infosys is India's second largest IT Services Company
with revenues of around USD6b and employing over
151,000 people. Infosys defines designs and delivers IT
enabled business solutions that help many Global 2000
companies.

Infosys has a global footprint in 23 countries and
development centers in India, China, Australia, the UK,
Canada and Japan. Its service offerings span business
and technology consulting, ADM, SI, product
engineering, IT infrastructure services and BPO. The
company obtains ~64% of its revenues from North
America, 22% from UK and ~2% from India. 35% of its
revenues come from BFSI, followed by 23% from Retail
& Life Sciences, the key verticals.
Continued pricing decline akin to that witnessed in
1QFY13 could lead to prolonged pain on the bottomline, despite offset coming in the form of healthy
volume growth.
 Appreciation in rupee could hamper profitability.
 Macro headwinds impact the company more due
to higher discretionary mix in its portfolio.
The company won 4 large deals, 1 with TCV of
USD300m+, and 4 transformational deals during
1QFY13.
 Infosys had 8 client wins in products and platforms
during the quarter.
 After the pricing cut in 1Q, trend in pricing and
margin performance will be keenly watched.

Most profitable company among frontline Indian IT
companies, with a wide offering of services profile
and deep domain knowledge.
 The company witnessed a pricing decline and
simultaneously increased its volume guidance for
FY13. We believe: (1) Brand value enjoyed by Infosys
allows it to attract customers with even a moderate
cut in price, and (2) the company will be extremely
selective in offering such price cuts; only the need
to hold on to bread-and-butter business in key
accounts could have forced its hand at the cuts.

Stock info
INFO IN
574
2,351
24.2
2977 / 2102
5 / -17 / -9
84
Volume growth in 1QFY13 was the only bright spot
in what was a largely disappointing quarter on most
fronts – margins, pricing and revenues.
 Guidance of 'at least' 5% USD revenue growth in
FY13 was lower than 6% that we had expected at
the lower end. Further, Infosys also discontinued
the practice of giving quarterly guidance.
 We have moderated our FY14 volume growth to
11.3% v/s 14.3% earlier, as management indicated
macro stress could continue for 4-8 quarters.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
16.0
18.3
51.8
13.9
Mar-12
16.0
16.6
53.4
14.0
Jun-11
16.0
9.8
52.4
21.7
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change - QoQ (%)
3.2
EBITDA
21,750
Change - QoQ (%) (6.1)
Reported PAT
17,220
Adjusted PAT
17,220
PAT Margin (%)
23.0
Volume growth
3.2
Headcount
133,560
Utiz. (incl. trainees) 69.6
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
80,990
8.2
25,160
15.7
31.1
19,060
19,060
10.7
23.5
Dec-11
92,980
14.8
31,350
24.6
33.7
23,720
23,720
24.4
25.5
Mar-12
88,520
(4.8)
28,900
(7.8)
32.6
23,160
23,160
(2.4)
26.2
Jun-12
96,160
8.6
29,460
1.9
30.6
22,890
22,890
(1.2)
23.8
FY12
337,340
22.7
107,160
19.7
31.8
83,160
83,160
21.9
24.7
FY13E
393,740
16.7
122,854
14.6
31.2
94,560
94,560
13.7
24.0
4.4
141,822
70.2
3.0
145,088
69.9
(0.6)
149,994
67.2
2.8
151,151
67.2
10.8
149,994
69.2
9.6
162,880
68.5
August 27 - 31, 2012
Infosys: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
Software Develop. Exp.
Selling and Mktg. Exp.
Administration Exp.
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Adjusted PAT
Reported PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
275,010
20.9
150,620
15,320
19,510
89,560
32.6
8,540
0
12,110
93,130
24,900
26.7
68,230
68,230
8.9
2012
337,340
22.7
188,710
17,570
23,900
107,160
31.8
9,370
0
19,040
116,830
33,670
28.8
83,160
83,160
21.9
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
2013E
393,740
16.7
225,152
19,660
26,074
122,854
31.2
10,451
0
19,432
131,835
37,368
28.3
94,467
94,467
13.6
2014E
426,266
8.3
249,068
21,634
27,753
127,810
30.0
10,631
0
21,979
139,158
38,964
28.0
100,194
100,194
6.1
(INR Million)
2011
2,860
256,900
259,760
0
259,760
2012
2,860
331,750
334,610
0
334,610
2013E
2,860
358,885
361,745
0
361,745
2014E
2,860
432,338
435,198
0
435,198
85,010
32,660
52,350
5,250
1,440
91,740
36,210
55,530
10,340
3,770
106,100
46,741
59,359
10,490
25,650
120,100
57,372
62,728
10,490
25,650
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout % (excl.div.tax)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
119.4
134.2
454.1
60.3
50.5
145.5
161.8
585.0
47.0
32.3
165.5
183.4
632.4
70.0
42.3
175.4
193.7
760.8
40.0
22.8
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
19.7
17.5
13.3
4.3
5.2
2.6
16.2
14.5
10.6
3.4
4.0
2.0
14.2
12.8
9.1
2.8
3.7
3.0
13.4
12.1
8.3
2.5
3.1
1.7
RoE
RoCE
27.8
33.1
28.0
32.9
27.1
32.3
25.1
29.4
62
5.6
84
6.6
91
7.2
80
7.3
Y/E March
2011
CF from Operations
75,560
Cash for Working Capital -14,300
Net Operating CF
61,260
2012
90,230
-9,340
80,890
2013E
104,778
-1,873
102,906
2014E
110,825
-16,646
94,179
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Cash Flow Statement
Gross Block
Less : Depreciation
Net Block
CWIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
253,890
46,530
150,950
53,200
3,210
53,170
26,770
26,400
200,720
259,760
313,840
77,550
205,910
27,220
3,160
48,870
30,810
18,060
264,970
334,610
349,700
97,817
205,173
43,409
3,300
83,454
39,822
43,632
266,246
361,745
407,564
93,428
258,612
52,224
3,300
71,233
43,890
27,343
336,331
435,198
Volume Growth (%)
18.0
Headcount
104,850
Utiliz. incl trainees (%)
68.6
E: MOSL Estimates
6.2
113,796
68.1
21.5
130,820
72.0
10.8
149,994
69.2
(INR Million)
Net Purchase of FA
Net Purchase of Invest.
Net Cash from Invest.
-12,590
35,680
23,090
-17,640
-2,330
-19,970
-14,430
-21,880
-36,310
-14,000
0
-14,000
Proceeds from Equity
Dividend Payments
Cash Flow from Fin.
Net Cash Flow
1,170
-40,130
-38,960
45,390
23,109
-29,069
-5,960
54,960
-20,630
-46,795
-67,425
-830
0
-26,740
-26,740
53,439
Opening Cash Bal.
Add: Net Cash
Closing Cash Bal.
105,560
45,390
150,950
150,950
54,960
205,910
205,910
-830
205,080
205,080
53,439
258,519
August 27 - 31, 2012
85
ING Vysya Bank
Company description
Key challenges
ING Vysya Bank (VYSB) had a balance sheet size of
INR487b and franchise of 527 branches and 446 ATMs
across India as of June 2012. With a strong management
at the helm of affairs, VYSB has built a robust platform,
delivering consistent performance. Improvement in key
ratios reaffirms the bank's turnaround and the
management's strong execution skills.

VYSB has been able to deliver healthy margins of
3%+ led by stable CASA ratio of 32-33% and higher
share of SME (31% v/s 25% in FY10) and retail loans
(~20%). Easing of liquidity conditions and lower cost
of funds hold key for better margin performance.
 Asset quality performance has been commendable
so far (GNPA/NNPA down from 3.2%/1.4% in 1QFY11
to 2%/0.2% in 1QFY13. While slippages are expected
to rise led by challenges in macro environment,
strong buffer built by boosting PCR (90 %+) would
provide cushion to earning.
 With systems/processes in line with large private
banks, and niche expertise in SME, VYSB is well
placed to grow its loan book above industry rates.
 Operating efficiency and improvement in core
income helped VYSB improve cost to core income
ratio from 71% (FY09) to 61% (FY12). With aboveindustry loan growth, and higher fee income, expect
gradual decline in cost to income ratio to continue.

Stock info
VYSB IN
150
392
1.1
405 / 275
0 / 14 / 18
86
Continuous positive surprise on asset quality
despite higher share of SME portfolio could lead to
earning upgrade.
 Fee income growth improved in 1QFY13;
sustainability of the same would be one of the key
drivers of RoA going forward.

Performance highlights of 1QFY13: While slippages
increased QoQ, strong recoveries and upgrades
contained GNPA (up 4% QoQ). NIM stable at 3.3%
unlike historic trend of 1Q. Strong fee income
growth of 20% YoY led by traction across fee income
streams. Loan growth was strong at 23% YoY, CASA
ratio declined 200bp QoQ to 32%.
 Management guidance for FY13: (a) Margin
guidance of 3.2-3.3%, (b) Loan growth to be above
industry average, (c) CASA ratio to be in the current
range of 32-34%.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
VYSB's RoA has improved from -0.3% in FY05 to 1.1%
in FY12. For further improvement, fall in opex to
average assets (improvement in productivity) is
imperative, as there is limited scope for positive
surprises on margins and credit cost.
 Over the past three quarters, bank has not added
any branch to its existing network, which may act
as hurdle to growth in medium term.
Jun-12
43.7
13.9
26.9
15.5
Mar-12
43.8
13.7
26.9
15.6
Jun-11
43.9
12.8
27.4
15.9
Y/E March
Jun-11
NII
2,620
Change (%)
10.1
Other Income
1,405
Opex
2,557
Operating Profit
1,468
Change (%)
-1.2
Provisions
62
PAT
940
Change (%)
36.1
NIM (%)
3.0
Loan Growth YoY (%) 25.5
GNPA (%)
2.2
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
3,036
19.4
1,625
2,767
1,894
2.8
175
1,154
53.3
Dec-11
3,236
31.6
1,699
2,822
2,113
32.5
334
1,195
44.0
Mar-12
3,192
18.9
1,968
2,957
2,203
53.9
566
1,274
39.5
Jun-12
3,433
31.0
1,710
2,967
2,175
48.1
267
1,301
38.4
FY12
12,084
20.1
6,698
11,102
7,679
20.9
1,138
4,563
43.2
FY13E
14,324
18.5
8,022
12,844
9,502
23.7
1,594
5,377
17.8
3.4
22.8
2.0
3.5
22.6
2.0
3.3
21.8
1.9
3.3
22.9
2.0
3.3
21.8
1.9
3.3
20.0
2.1
August 27 - 31, 2012
ING Vysya Bank: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
Interest Income
26,941
38,568
Interest Expense
16,876
26,485
Net Interest Income
10,064 12,084
Change (%)
21.3
20.1
Non Interest Income
6,550
6,698
Net Income
16,614 18,781
Change (%)
14.6
13.0
Operating Expenses
10,260
11,102
6,354
7,679
Change (%)
-1.0
20.9
1,516
1,138
PBT
4,838
6,541
Tax
1,652
1,978
Tax Rate (%)
34.2
30.2
PAT
3,186
4,563
Change (%)
31.5
43.2
Adjusted PAT
3,186
4,563
Change (%)
43.5
43.2
Equity Dividend
363
600
Core PPP*
5,014
7,143
Change (%)
5.8
42.4
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Deposits
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings
Total Liabilities
Current Assets
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
2013E
48,141
33,816
14,324
18.5
8,022
22,346
19.0
12,844
9,502
23.7
1,594
7,908
2,531
32.0
5,377
17.8
5,377
17.8
699
8,678
21.5
(INR Million)
2011
1,210
25,033
26,243
301,942
16.7
104,586
24.1
41,469
20,485
390,140
25,214
110,583
5.6
236,021
27.5
5,028
13,293
390,140
2012
1,501
38,297
39,798
351,954
16.6
120,473
15.2
56,965
21,288
470,005
32,306
127,155
15.0
287,367
21.8
5,008
18,170
470,005
2013E
1,501
42,856
44,357
429,384
22.0
135,723
12.7
58,810
23,502
556,053
41,062
142,414
12.0
344,840
20.0
5,024
22,713
556,053
2014E
1,501
48,008
49,509
532,436
24.0
156,081
15.0
62,140
25,987
670,072
52,235
163,776
15.0
420,705
22.0
4,966
28,391
670,072
1,554
918
0.66
0.39
40.9
83.4
1,495
525
0.52
0.18
64.9
90.7
3,337
1,702
0.96
0.49
49.0
77.2
6,241
2,910
1.47
0.69
53.4
72.0
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR m)
NNPA (INR m)
GNPA Ratio
NNPA Ratio
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
54,845
38,133
16,713
16.7
9,552
26,265
17.5
14,730
11,535
21.4
2,600
8,935
2,859
32.0
6,076
13.0
6,076
13.0
790
10,506
21.1
Ratios
Y/E March
Avg. Yield on loans
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
RoE
RoA
Cost/Income*
Busi. per Empl. (Rs m)
NP per Empl. (Rs lac)
* ex treasury
Loans/Deposit Ratio
CASA Ratio
CAR
Tier 1
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
7.9
9.7
6.0
5.3
4.8
2.6
2.9
9.5
11.0
8.3
7.0
6.6
2.5
3.0
10.0
11.3
9.1
7.5
7.1
2.4
3.0
9.5
10.8
8.7
7.0
6.5
2.5
2.9
13.4
0.9
62.6
34.5
39.4
14.3
1.1
68.7
35.0
35.7
13.1
1.0
70.2
34.3
35.9
13.2
1.0
69.5
34.7
36.4
67.2
59.0
73.9
0.5
60.9
58.6
69.1
0.5
59.7
60.8
69.6
0.5
58.4
62.6
82.2
0.6
78.2
34.6
36.6
74.4
12.9
9.4
81.6
34.2
36.1
70.5
14.0
11.2
80.3
31.6
33.2
78.4
13.1
10.5
79.0
29.3
30.8
81.3
11.8
9.5
208.3
12.4
258.2
24.0
1.5
255.9
1.5
30.4
15.4
12.9
4.0
1.0
288.6
11.8
1.4
281.2
1.4
35.8
17.8
10.9
4.7
1.2
322.9
11.9
1.2
310.3
1.3
40.5
13.0
9.7
5.3
1.3
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
Change (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
Change (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
203.4
26.3
42.3
3.0
(%)
87
IPCA Laboratories
Company description
IPCA Laboratories is one of India's better managed midsized pharma companies. It has presence in:
(1) domestic branded formulations (35% of sales)
(2) global branded and generic formulations (35%), and
(3) global APIs (29%).
IPCA's core business strategy is to leverage its strength
in manufacturing API to develop vertically integrated
and highly competitive formulations. Most of IPCA's
formulations are backed by its own APIs. It is also one
of the key suppliers of anti-malarial drugs to WHO and
has scaled up this business significantly.
Strong capability in API manufacturing is at the core
of IPCA's business success. The company has
attained global leadership position in select APIs
where it is the lowest cost producer which gives
the company vertical integration advantage.
 It has outperformed the domestic industry growth
over the past 5 years on the back of its rising
presence in fast-growing chronic therapy segments.
 We expect a significant ramp-up in IPCA's
international formulations revenues led by 37%
CAGR for the US business and 25% CAGR for branded
formulations business.
 Expect 31% EPS CAGR for FY12-14, led by expected
ramp-up in the US and recovery of growth for the
domestic formulations business.
Key challenges
 Needs to broaden its therapeutic coverage in India
to fully exploit the domestic market potential.
 Sustaining profitability despite being a late entrant
in the US generic market will be challenging.

Approvals for and ramp-up of products from Indore
SEZ; this is imperative to drive growth in the US.
 Ability to drive growth in India despite the lower
incidence of malaria.
 How IPCA manages to counter price erosion in UK.


Stock info
IPCA IN
126
403
0.9
425 / 230
4 / 30 / 21
88
IPCA's 1QFY13 performance was slightly below
estimates due to deferment of shipments in the
institutional business to next quarter. India
formulations growth of 18.6% was a positive
surprise, but the same may not be sustainable given
the lower incidence of infectious diseases as a
result of delayed monsoon.
 EBITDA grew 40% YoY to INR1.33b (below our
estimate of INR1.4b); EBITDA margin expanded
300bp YoY to 21% (our estimate 21.9%) largely
impacted by lower institutional segment revenues.
 Adjusted PAT declined 30% YoY to INR430m due to
INR580m of forex losses.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
1QFY13 highlights
Jun-12
45.9
21.4
10.9
21.9
Mar-12
46.0
22.2
9.8
22.0
Jun-11
46.1
22.2
10.4
21.4
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11 Dec-11
Operating Income
5,299
6,235
6,148
Change (%)
26.8
20.3
31.8
EBITDA
952
1,580
1,513
Change (%)
33.6
33.9
66.2
25.3
24.6
Reported PAT
617
780
639
Adjusted PAT
617
780
639
Change (%)
58.8
-17.1
0.0
PAT Margin (%)
11.6
12.5
10.4
Dom. Formulations 1,890
2,292
1,876
Intl Formulations 2,066
2,605
2,898
Domestic APIs
407
356
333
Intl APIs
901
927
911
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Mar-12
5,611
13.5
1,117
16.4
19.9
766
766
16.9
13.7
Jun-12
6,344
19.7
1,329
39.7
21.0
430
430
-30.3
6.8
FY12
23,587
24.3
5,135
36.5
21.8
2,762
2,762
5.3
11.7
FY13E
27,855
18.1
6,318
23.0
22.7
3,866
3,866
40.0
13.9
1,477
2,393
343
1,319
2,242
2,245
393
1,422
7,534
9,961
1,439
4,058
8,664
12,496
1,439
4,719
August 27 - 31, 2012
IPCA Laboratories: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Revenues
18,969
Change (%)
21.4
EBITDA
3,761
Margin (%)
19.8
Depreciation
558
EBIT
3,203
Int. and Finance Charges
314
Other Income - Rec.
518
PBT after EO Expense
3,407
Current Tax
770
Deferred Tax
14
Tax
784
Tax Rate (%)
23.0
Reported PAT
2,623
Less: Minority Interest
-5
Net Profit
2,628
Adj PAT
2,628
2012
23,587
24.3
5,135
21.8
671
4,464
413
-408
3,643
881
0
881
24.2
2,762
0
2,762
2,762
Balance Sheet
2013E
27,855
18.1
6,318
22.7
843
5,475
426
105
5,154
1,031
258
1,289
25.0
3,866
0
3,866
3,866
2014E
32,257
15.8
7,364
22.8
1,002
6,362
426
180
6,116
1,284
122
1,407
23.0
4,709
0
4,709
4,709
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Total Loans
Capital Employed
2011
251
10,265
10,516
807
5,308
16,625
2012
252
12,288
12,540
932
5,326
18,798
2013E
252
15,380
15,633
1189
5,326
22,148
2014E
252
19,147
19,400
1312
5,326
26,038
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
9,884
2,892
6,992
1,132
408
12,890
3,563
9,326
1,132
341
15,690
4,407
11,283
1,132
341
18,190
5,409
12,781
1,132
341
10,586
4,664
4,637
104
1,182
2,493
2,073
420
8,093
16,625
12,475
6,699
3,491
122
2,163
4,475
4,099
377
7,999
18,798
14,746
6,786
5,278
119
2,563
5,353
4,825
528
9,393
22,148
17,979
8,027
6,107
878
2,966
6,195
5,584
611
11,784
26,038
Y/E March
2011
Domestic formulation
6,964
International formulation 6,917
APIs
4,778
Net Sales
18,659
2012
7,534
9,961
5,497
22,992
2013E
8,664
12,496
6,157
27,318
2014E
10,050
14,789
6,773
31,613
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS (INR)
Cash EPS
BV/Share
2011
20.9
25.3
83.7
2012
21.9
27.2
99.4
2013E
30.6
37.3
123.9
2014E
37.3
45.3
153.8
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per Share
19.3
15.9
4.8
2.9
14.9
0.9
3.9
18.4
14.8
4.1
2.4
10.9
1.1
8.5
13.2
10.8
3.3
2.0
8.8
1.5
9.5
10.8
8.9
2.6
1.7
7.5
1.9
16.9
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
27.4
25.6
24.0
24.1
27.4
28.7
26.9
28.6
1.9
2.8
87
90
1.8
2.9
54
104
1.8
2.7
69
89
1.8
2.7
69
91
4.2
10.2
0.5
2.8
10.8
0.4
2.8
12.8
0.3
2.9
14.9
0.3
Y/E March
2011
Oper.Profit/Loss before Tax 3,761
518
Direct Taxes Paid
-770
(Inc)/Dec in WC
-1,203
CF from Operations
2,307
2012
5,135
-408
-757
111
4,082
2013E
6,318
105
-1,031
-1,396
3,997
2014E
7,364
180
-1,284
-1,632
4,627
(inc)/dec in FA
-1,821
-83
CF from Investments
-1,904
-3,006
68
-2,938
-2,800
0
-2,800
-2,500
0
-2,500
Issue of shares
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
1
762
-314
-468
-388
-407
1
25
-413
-554
-185
-1,126
0
0
-426
-773
0
-1,199
0
0
-426
-942
0
-1,368
-4
108
104
18
104
122
-3
122
119
760
119
878
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Debt/Equity
Cash Flow Statement
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Loans & Advances
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
August 27 - 31, 2012
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
89
ITC
Company description
ITC, an associate of BAT (British American Tobacco),
enjoys ~80% market share of India's organized cigarettes
market. Over the years, ITC has diversified into FMCG,
Hotels, Paper and Paperboard and agri businesses as it
looks to build a conglomerate and reduce dependence
on cigarettes.
volume growth. Differential and rising VAT rates
across states are also a key challenge.
 Higher than expected losses in Consumer business
due to input cost pressure and new brand launches
can delay the expected breakeven.
News of various tax hikes in cigarettes has been a
recent overhang on the stock and needs to be
monitored.
 Extent of price increases and launch of 64mm
variant in the cigarettes portfolio.
 Increase in dividend payout from historical average
of ~45% could be a key positive.

Dominant market share ~80% and strong pricing
power in cigarettes business offers strong growth
potential due to rising affordability and ban on FDI
(restricts potential MNC entrants).
 Despite price hikes, ~1.5% cigarette volume growth
in 1QFY13 reflects strong consumer preference for
ITC's cigarette brands.
 Significant improvement in margin profile of paper
and agri divisions and steady reduction in Consumer
division losses have helped boost EBITDA margins
by 280bp over the last 2 years.
 Limited capex requirement and huge cash flow
generation (~4x capex requirement) can provide
upsides to dividend payouts in coming years.

Key challenges

Steep increase in taxes on cigarettes in the middle
of the year or in the next Union Budget can impact
Stock info
ITC IN
7823
262
36.7
269 / 185
-1 / 31 / 23
90
1QFY13 cigarette volumes grew ~1.5% YoY and
realizations grew 13.5%, driving Net sales growth
of 15% to INR33b.
 Consumer division losses fell to INR388m; margins
improved despite increased pace of new launches.
 ITC has also started test marketing filter cigarettes
of length not exceeding 65mm in UP and Bihar.
 We model cigarettes volume growth of 2%/7% for
FY13/14, translating to 15% EBIT CAGR and 17% PAT
CAGR over FY12-14.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
0.0
34.1
49.4
16.4
Mar-12
0.0
34.3
49.1
16.6
Jun-11
0.0
35.9
46.6
17.5
Y/E March
Jun-12
Change (%)
20.4
EBITDA
19,579
Change (%)
19.1
Reported PAT
13,327
Adjusted PAT
13,327
Change (%)
24.5
PAT Margin (%)
22.8
Cigarette
Volume Growth (%) 8.0
EBIT Growth (%)
20.8
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-12
60,852
17.6
22,190
18.0
36.5
15,143
15,143
21.5
24.9
Dec-12
62,478
14.2
23,811
18.0
38.1
17,010
17,010
22.5
27.2
Mar-12
69,545
16.9
22,633
18.8
32.5
16,143
16,143
26.0
23.2
Jun-13
67,131
14.7
23,683
21.0
35.3
16,021
16,021
20.2
23.9
FY12
251,738
17.3
88,486
19.4
35.2
61,624
61,624
23.6
24.5
FY13E
291,436
15.8
104,650
18.3
35.9
71,726
71,726
16.4
24.6
7.5
18.6
5.0
20.3
5.0
19.5
1.5
20.5
6.4
20.1
2.0
15.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
ITC: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Operational Income
Total Revenue
Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
Other Inc. - Recurring
Profit before Taxes
Margin (%)
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Profit after Taxes
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Reported PAT
(INR Million)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
211,676 247,984 287,603 330,714
2,914
3,754
3,833
4,176
214,590 251,738 291,436 334,890
16.7
17.3
15.8
14.9
140,472 163,252 186,786 212,236
74,118 88,486 104,650 122,653
35.0
35.7
36.4
37.1
6,560
6,985
8,041
8,806
684
779
750
750
5,798
8,253
7,717
8,960
72,673 88,975 103,576 122,057
34.3
35.9
36.0
36.9
22,806
27,352
31,332
36,922
31.4
30.7
30.8
30.8
49,867 61,624 71,726 84,525
28.9
23.6
16.4
17.8
23.6
24.8
24.9
25.6
49,867 61,624 71,726 84,525
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Liability
Capital Employed
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
7,738
7,738
7,738
7,738
151,795 180,597 214,559 254,582
159,533 188,335 222,297 262,320
992
992
992
992
8,019
7,227
6,330
5,303
168,543 196,554 229,619 268,615
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
127,658 142,658 157,658 172,658
44,208
51,483
59,524
68,329
83,451 91,175 98,135 104,329
13,334
10,000
10,000
10,000
55,547
67,973
92,073 124,392
Curr. Assets, L&A
101,840 109,176 123,621 138,480
Inventory
52,675
62,747
71,083
79,490
Account Receivables
9,076
11,647
13,395
15,403
Cash and Bank Balance 22,432
13,134
15,161
16,945
Others
17,656
21,648
23,982
26,642
85,628 81,770 94,210 108,587
Account Payables
43,821
47,779
54,283
61,705
Other Liabilities
7,371
6,617
7,648
8,845
Provisions
34,436
27,374
32,278
38,037
Net Current Assets
16,212 27,406 29,411 29,894
168,543 196,554 229,619 268,615
Cigarettes
Volume Growth (%)
VAT (%)
Net Realisation Gr (%)
EBIT Growth (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
FY11
-2.8
14.5
16.6
16.8
FY12
7.0
18.2
10.4
20.1
FY13E
2.0
20.8
10.5
15.2
FY14E
7.1
20.8
7.4
15.5
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
6.4
7.3
20.6
4.5
80.2
8.0
8.9
24.3
3.5
52.7
9.3
10.3
28.7
4.2
52.7
10.9
12.1
33.9
4.9
52.7
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
38.6
34.1
8.7
25.0
12.1
1.8
31.7
28.3
7.4
20.9
10.2
1.4
26.9
24.2
6.3
17.4
8.7
1.7
22.8
20.6
5.4
14.6
7.3
2.0
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
31.3
43.5
32.7
45.7
32.3
45.4
32.2
45.7
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
15
1.3
15
1.3
16
1.3
16
1.2
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
72,673
Int./Div. Received
5,798
Depreciation and Amort. 6,560
Interest Paid
684
Direct Taxes Paid
22,806
Incr in WC
1,827
Diff in dep
607
CF from Operations
50,092
2012
2013E
2014E
88,975 103,576 122,057
8,253
7,717
8,960
6,985
8,041
8,806
779
750
750
27,352
31,850
37,533
32,919
24,078
31,017
-290
0
0
27,925 48,722 54,103
Extraordinary Items
Incr Decr in FA
Pur of Investments
CF from Invest.
0
11,224
-1,722
-9,502
1
11,666
12,427
-24,092
2
15,000
24,100
-39,098
3
15,000
32,319
-47,316
Issue of shares
Incr in Debt
Interest Income
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
5,220
0
5,798
684
38,182
-1,574
-29,421
0
0
8,253
779
34,435
13,829
-13,132
0
0
7,717
750
27,373
12,809
-7,597
0
-992
8,960
750
32,277
20,056
-5,003
11,170
11,263
22,432
-9,298
22,432
13,135
2,027
13,134
15,161
1,784
15,161
16,945
Incr of Cash
Closing Balance
91
Jaiprakash Associates
Company description
Key challenges
Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) is a diversified infrastructure
player with presence in Cement, Power, Roads, Real
Estate and Hospitality. The company is set to become
India's third largest cement player with target capacity
of ~36m tons and is among the top 10 private sector
power project developers currently (project pipeline
of 13GW), and has access to ~3.7b sq ft of land bank in
and around Noida, Uttar Pradesh.

JPA plans to ramp up cement capacity to ~36m tons
by end-FY13, up from 13.5m tons in FY09.
 Of the 13GW of power projects under development,
1.8GW is operational while equipment awards have
been placed for 3.8GW, indicating good progress. It
has also commissioned 1GW of Karcham Wangtoo
hydro project.
 JPA is the EPC contractor for the Real Estate project
at Noida, own power projects, etc. This provides
good revenue visibility for E&C division.
 JPA group has outlined a strategy for consolidation
and de-leveraging. It plans to lower debt through
project cash flows, stake sale in Cement business,
and divestment in Jaypee Infratech.

Stock info
JPA IN
2,126
76
2.9
89 / 50
-5 / -7 / 26
92
Possibility of disinvestment in Cement business and
application of funds.
 Commissioning of Bina power project and
developments on Nigrie thermal project and status
on Karcham Wangtoo PPA.
 Ramp-up in real estate business both at standalone
and consolidated levels.

1QFY13 EBITDA was in-line with estimate, but led
by mixed trends across business. Performance was
boosted by higher EBITDA margin and cement
realization, while RE bookings were lower.
 Expect consolidated cement sales of over 25m tons
in FY13E.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
JPA's earnings are lumpy in nature given commodity
nature of cement business and project nature of
EPC and Real Estate businesses.
 Consolidated debt stands at INR467b as of March
2012, implying DER of 3.8x.
 Slowdown in real estate revenue bookings,
regulatory overhang on Cement / Power business.
Jun-12
46.7
13.6
20.6
19.1
Mar-12
46.8
13.7
20.6
18.9
Jun-11
46.8
11.6
20.4
21.2
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
0.3
EBITDA
7,728
Change (%)
20.4
Reported PAT
1,070
Adjusted PAT
1,072
Change (%)
1.3
Cement div. EBIT 34,854
EPC division EBIT 12,748
RE division EBIT
3,469
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
31,324
4.6
7,482
9.9
23.9
1,287
1,287
11.4
Dec-11
33,054
14.2
8,160
3.1
24.7
2,050
2,034
-12.9
Mar-12
40,621
4.0
10,194
31.7
25.1
2,838
2,789
-3.3
Jun-12
29,636
34,854
15,540
2,018
36,014
12,421
3,078
37,014
17,706
5,604
15,629
12,160
1,651
7,713
26.0
1,388
1,379
FY12
128,531
-0.9
34,397
19.1
26.8
10,264
10,203
37.8
FY13E
141,997
54,650
58,423
14,170
66,806
57,519
15,000
35,101
7,973
7,973
August 27 - 31, 2012
Jaiprakash Associates: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Net Sales
129,650 128,531 141,997 161,157
Change (%)
28.5
-0.9
10.5
13.5
EBITDA
28,889 34,397 35,101 39,140
% of Net Sales
22.3
26.8
24.7
24.3
Depreciation
6,078
6,142
7,176
7,286
Interest
13,942 17,817 18,874 18,091
Other Income
8,668
2,706
2,505
2,098
PBT
17,537 13,143 11,556 15,861
Tax
5,867
2,880
3,582
5,576
Rate (%)
33.5
21.9
31.0
35.2
Reported PAT
11,670 10,264
7,973 10,286
Extra-ord. Inc. (net of exp)
0
61
0
0
Adjusted PAT
7,421 10,203
7,973 10,286
Change (%)
-16.9
37.5
-21.9
29.0
Consolidated PAT
13,839
6,336 10,725 13,241
Change (%)
355.1
-54.2
69.3
23.5
Balancesheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
4,253
4,253
4,253
4,253
89,721 97,658 91,814 99,754
93,974 101,911 96,067 104,007
217,076 181,628 163,205 163,033
11,940 12,440 12,440 12,940
322,990 295,979 271,712 279,980
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
147,964 160,589 163,089 165,589
28,395 34,537 41,713 48,999
119,569 126,052 121,376 116,590
63,527
1,500
1,545
1,591
64,838 80,461 83,940 86,966
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
131,523 147,339 127,952 144,306
32,833 36,311 39,008 43,609
28,106 29,313 31,512 36,205
24,625 33,010
6,548 10,209
45,697 48,442 50,623 54,022
262
262
262
262
Net Current Assets
56,467 59,372 63,101 69,473
75,057 87,966 64,851 74,833
322,990 295,979 271,712 279,980
EBIT mix (INR m)
Y/E March
Construction
Cement
Hospitality
BOT Dividend
Power
Real estate
Exceptional
Unallocated
Total
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
9,264
8,396
152
1,036
122
8,708
2,496
(3,819)
26,355
2012
16,054
8,475
36
1,950
152
5,625
(2,082)
30,209
2013E
13,517
9,135
220
1,000
183
6,375
30,430
2014E
11,779
12,780
253
1,000
219
7,920
33,952
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Consolidated EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
3.5
-17.0
6.5
355.1
6.3
44.2
0.7
14.5
4.8
37.5
3.0
-54.2
7.7
47.9
1.0
22.7
3.7
-21.9
5.0
69.3
7.1
45.2
0.7
22.8
4.8
29.0
6.2
23.5
8.3
48.9
1.0
22.8
15.8
25.4
9.8
9.0
2.4
1.6
1.3
20.2
15.0
10.6
9.0
2.2
1.7
1.0
15.6
12.1
9.1
8.0
1.9
1.5
1.3
8.3
10.6
10.4
10.0
8.1
10.7
10.3
12.3
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
79
0.4
80
0.4
81
0.5
82
0.6
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.6
Valuation (x)
P/E (standalone)
P/E (consolidated)
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(INR Million)
2011
17,546
6,078
13,942
5,867
-16,762
14,936
2012
13,143
6,142
17,817
2,880
-4,525
29,698
2013E
11,556
7,176
18,874
3,582
-3,347
30,676
2014E
15,861
7,286
18,091
5,576
-6,321
29,341
(Inc)/Dec in FA
-44,070
CF from Investments
-53,145
49,402
-15,623
33,779
-2,545
-3,479
-6,024
-2,546
-3,027
-5,573
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Dividend Paid
1,688
37,988
13,942
1,692
24,042
500
-35,448
17,817
2,326
-55,092
-12,000
-18,423
18,874
1,818
-51,115
500
-172
18,091
2,345
-20,108
Inc/Dec of Cash
-14,167
Closing Balance
24,625
8,385
24,625
33,010
-26,463
33,010
6,548
3,661
6,548
10,209
93
Jindal Steel & Power
Company description
Key challenges
Jindal Steel & Power (JSP) currently has 3mtpa of
operational steel-making capacity at Raigarh. It has one
of the best iron ore and coal resources in India, with
assets spread over various mineral-rich countries.

JSP offers the best insulation from iron ore and coking
coal prices among Indian steel producers, and is the
only power producer in India, most of whose projects
are secured for coal from captive mines.
The company has rich iron ore and coal resources
overseas, mainly in Mozambique, South Africa and
Indonesia.
Sluggish steel demand, cheaper imports and
enhanced capacity of steel majors due to recent
expansions will put pressure on prices. Domestic
producers will have to resort to more aggressive
pricing which will results in lower margins
 Expected return on new projects (i.e. Angul and
Tamnar) has declined significantly due to repeated
delays and cost escalations. Moreover, increased
regulatory vigil on mining will lead to higher input
prices.

JSP has planned to increase its steel capacity 4x over
the next four years. It is augmenting its existing
3mtpa capacity, by setting up a 1.6mtpa module at
Angul, which will use the coal gasification route. It
plans to add two more modules of 1.6mtpa each at
Angul and Raigarh, using this technology. At Patratu
(Jharkhand), JSP has selected the blast furnace
route for steel making.
 Only 1/3rd of the 12mtpa steel capacity will be
exposed to coking coal imports.
 Jindal Power plans to increase capacity by 10x in 10
years by adding 4,380MW of thermal power projects
in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand at a capex of USD5.3b
and 6,100MW of hydro power projects in Arunachal
Pradesh at a capex of USD8.1b.

Stock info
JSP IN
935
405
6.8
663 / 390
-9 / -34 / -27
94
JSP's 1QFY13 Adj Cons PAT grew 4.4% YoY to INR9.6b
(9% below our estimate) due to lower sales
volumes in the steel business, higher costs in Jindal
Power, and higher interest costs. Reported Cons PAT
of INR3.85b included INR5.7b on account of
impairment in value of investment in Bolivia.
 Production of steel and pellets remained strong,
but sales volumes disappointed, as demand and
prices deteriorated sharply in June 2012.
 The accumulated inventory is likely to yield lower
profits in the next quarter because of lower steel
prices.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Utkal B1 coal mine is critical for value accretion in
its Angul Steel and Power projects which are
expected to be commissioned by June 2013.
Jun-12
59.0
7.3
21.9
11.8
Mar-12
58.9
6.9
23.1
11.1
Jun-11
58.4
6.5
24.1
11.0
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
31.4
EBITDA
16,257
Change (%)
3.9
Reported PAT
9,330
Adjusted PAT
9,188
Change (%)
-2.4
PAT Margin (%)
23.3
Steel (000 tons)
457
Pellets (000 tons)
347
Jindal Power(M kwh)1,906
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
44,232
43.5
18,038
20.1
40.8
8,918
10,495
19.1
23.7
Dec-11
43,577
37.3
17,922
12.1
41.1
10,161
10,210
9.1
23.4
Mar-12
54,823
42.2
19,144
10.8
34.9
11,615
11,670
17.3
21.3
Jun-12
47,015
19.2
15,932
-2.0
33.9
3,855
9,594
4.4
20.4
FY12
182,073
38.9
71,361
11.6
39.2
40,025
41,563
10.7
22.8
FY13E
208,923
14.7
67,012
-6.1
32.1
31,229
36,763
-11.5
17.6
598
526
1,839
591
464
2,030
737
691
1,976
561
395
2,015
2,385
2,028
7,750
2,465
1,934
8,002
August 27 - 31, 2012
Jindal Steel & Power: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Net sales
Change (%)
Total Expenses
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
EBIT
Net Interest
Other income
PBT before EO
EO income
PBT after EO
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Minority interests
Share of Associates
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
131,116 182,073 208,923 221,316
18.2
38.9
14.7
5.9
67,190 110,713 141,911 146,212
63,926 71,361 67,012 75,104
48.8
39.2
32.1
33.9
11,510 13,863 14,113 17,795
52,416 57,498 52,899 57,309
3,356
5,059
6,981 12,563
820
1,432
1,183
1,355
49,880 53,871 47,101 46,100
-1,982
-5,741
0
49,880 51,888 41,360 46,100
11,840 11,863 10,130 11,154
23.7
22.9
24.5
24.2
38,040 40,025 31,229 34,946
659
644
509
470
158
200
301
158
37,539 41,563 36,763 34,634
4.7
10.7
-11.5
-5.8
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Capital Employed
(INR Million)
2011
934
139,965
140,899
2,335
139,766
10,055
293,054
2012
934
180,218
181,152
2,985
150,146
11,520
345,804
2013E
934
214,718
215,653
3,526
209,146
12,788
441,114
2014E
934
245,856
246,790
4,047
276,146
14,299
541,282
Gross Block
192,756
Less: Accum. Deprn.
44,321
Net Fixed Assets
148,435
Capital WIP
100,409
Good will
1,018
Investments
2,979
Curr. Assets
107,863
Inventory
27,734
Account Receivables
11,537
4,802
loans & advances
63,790
67,649
Account Payables
36,587
Provisions & Others
31,063
Net Current Assets
40,214
Appl. of Funds
293,054
JSP Operating Parameters
Steel (000 tons)
1,900
Metalics (000 tons)
336
Pellets (000 tons)
565
CPP (M kwh)
1,066
Jindal Power (M kwh)
7,920
JSP Realization (INR/kwh)
4.2
225,668
58,120
167,548
139,784
1,018
2,979
114,640
32,243
14,204
4,404
63,790
80,165
49,103
31,063
34,475
345,804
231,911
72,239
159,672
232,519
1,018
2,979
122,076
35,849
17,827
4,611
63,790
77,150
46,088
31,063
44,926
441,114
397,074
90,034
307,041
165,135
1,018
2,979
144,389
37,893
18,691
24,017
63,790
79,279
48,216
31,063
65,111
541,282
2,385
164
2,028
1,446
7,750
3.9
2,465
18
1,934
2,550
8,002
3.7
3,176
56
1,538
3,359
7,984
3.6
August 27 - 31, 2012
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
40.1
53.0
150.8
1.5
3.8
44.4
57.7
193.9
1.6
3.7
39.3
48.5
230.9
2.0
5.2
37.0
56.5
264.2
2.0
5.5
9.0
7.0
2.1
2.9
7.3
0.4
10.2
8.3
1.7
2.8
8.7
0.5
10.9
7.1
1.5
2.8
8.4
0.5
30.6
21.6
25.8
18.5
18.5
13.8
15.0
12.0
0.4
32.1
21.2
27.0
101.8
0.5
28.5
17.7
16.5
98.4
0.5
31.1
17.2
19.3
80.5
0.4
30.8
17.1
18.6
79.5
1.6
15.6
1.0
1.4
11.4
0.8
1.6
7.6
0.9
1.8
4.6
1.0
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE (pre-tax)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Work.Cap.Turnover (Days)
Payable (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Debt/Equity
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Pre-tax profit
49,880
Depreciation
11,510
-18,929
Tax paid
-9,472
Other operating activities
262
33,252
2012
51,888
13,863
5,341
-9,491
-250
61,351
2013E
41,360
14,113
-10,244
-8,104
-784
36,341
2014E
46,100
17,795
-779
-8,909
-2,104
52,104
(Inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP
-82,070
206
-81,864
-72,287
0
-72,287
-98,978
0
-98,978
-97,779
0
-97,779
3
53,723
-1,439
Other financing activities
52,287
0
10,380
-1,535
1,663
10,508
0
59,000
-1,919
0
67,000
-1,919
57,081
65,081
-427
4,802
4,404
-5,556
4,404
-1,152
19,406
4,611
24,017
(Inc)/Dec in Cash
Closing Balance
3,674
1,128
4,802
95
JSW Energy
Company description
Key challenges
JSW Energy (JSWEL), a Sajjan Jindal group company, has
a power generation project portfolio of 11.4GW. Of this,
2.6GW is operational, 0.5GW is under construction
(expected to be commissioned in FY13), and the
remaining 8GW is under various stages of development
and planning. The company is an early entrant in power
trading business, and also has a JV with Toshiba for super
critical steam turbines and generator.

JSWEL's business model in the medium term is a
combination of merchant power sales and spot coal
purchases. Of the 3.1GW operational capacity by
FY13E, 44% of offtake will be on short-term (ST) sales
and 66% of the fuel purchases will be on spot basis.
 Global thermal coal indices are down ~35% since
their peak in Dec-10, led by changing US energy
dynamics, slowdown in demand from China, etc.
Even in INR terms, the indices are down by ~17%
despite rupee depreciation. JSWEL is a key
beneficiary with ~1.4GW merchant capacity located
in high-deficit consumption regions. JSWEL has
already tied up sizable capacity under ST contract at
price range of INR4.5-5.0/unit.
 JSWEL has lowest DER among private sector players
at 1.76x as at June 2012. Higher operating cash flows
and no sizable commitment would ensure that
equity dilution is not necessary in the near term.
Stock info
JSW IN
1,640
50
1.5
77 / 36
-7 / -28 / -16
96
Higher merchant prices over FY13/14E. We expect
merchant prices at INR4.0/unit.
 Continued weakness in imported coal prices and
rupee appreciation could be twin benefits.
 Approval of lignite production expansion for
Kapurdi mines from MoEF (Raj West project).
 Favorable tariff order on Raj West and 300MW PPA
with MSEDCL.
1QFY13 performance was higher than estimates led
by higher generation at 4.7BUs, and better gross
margin at INR2.10/unit, v/s INR0.2/unit in 2QFY12.
 in 1QFY13, JSWEL synchronized Raj West's Unit-V
and Unit-VI and is expecting project CoD in FY13.
 It expects to file for revised tariff order of Raj West
in 3QFY13.
 Management expects merchant realization in the
range of INR4-4.25/unit, with an upward bias.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Jun-12
Promoter
76.7
Domestic Instn
5.9
Foreign
9.2
Others
8.2


Imported coal prices have been softening, but any
major rebound could impact earnings.
 INR depreciation in the past has been steep and is
yet to see signs of easing out.
 Approval of Raj West tariff crucial to improve near
term profitability of the project.
Mar-12
76.7
5.7
10.3
7.2
Jun-11
76.7
5.8
10.5
6.9
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
36.5
EBITDA
3,932
Change (%)
-13.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 31
Reported PAT
1,363
Adjusted PAT
1,363
Change (%)
-54.4
PAT Margin (%)
10.7
Merc. Tar. (INR/Unit) 4.51
Fuel Cost (INR/Unit) 2.92
Plant PLF (%)
71
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
9,965
17.8
1,182
-63.6
12
-1,089
-221
-114.3
-2.2
Dec-11
17,687
64.3
3,495
-1.2
20
-827
549
-60.2
3.1
Mar-12
20,812
44.6
5,869
35.5
28
2,303
1,683
-18.3
8.1
Jun-12
21,915
72.2
5,834
48.4
27
34
1,949
43.0
8.9
FY12
61,187
42.5
14,477
-7.4
24
1,700
3,313
-60.6
5.4
FY13E
81,635
33.4
24,852
71.7
30
4,308
6,223
87.9
7.6
3.15
2.94
74
3.99
2.69
81
4.18
2.43
92
4.56
2.44
92
4.37
2.69
72
4.05
2.27
80
August 27 - 31, 2012
JSW Energy: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT before Min. Int.
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
42,944
82.3
27,302
15,642
36.4
2,668
4,325
1,332
9,980
1,563
15.7
8,418
8,418
12.9
8,418
12.5
2012
61,189
42.5
46,710
14,478
23.7
5,033
7,172
1,466
3,739
419
11.2
3,320
3,314
-60.6
3,314
-60.6
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Share Holder Funds
Minority
LT Borrowings
Deffered Tax Liabilities
Other LT Liabilities
LT Provisions
Non Current Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Total Equity & liabilities
2013E
81,635
33.4
56,783
24,852
30.4
7,742
10,252
1,656
8,515
2,377
27.9
6,138
6,223
87.8
6,223
87.8
2014E
91,302
11.8
60,063
31,239
34.2
8,841
10,105
1,156
13,448
3,070
22.8
10,378
10,483
68.5
10,483
68.5
(INR Million)
2011
16,401
40,364
56,765
724
84,709
1,562
6
323
86,601
2012
2013E
2014E
16,401
16,401
16,401
40,600
43,895
52,609
57,001 60,295 69,009
500
415
310
87,172 106,585 100,455
1,292
1,292
1,292
14
14
14
286
286
286
88,764 108,177 102,047
31,959
46,723
10,899
9,580
176,048 192,988 179,786 180,946
Fixed Assets
134,903 146,446 145,987 142,263
Non Current Investments
2,389
2,871
3,427
3,427
LT Loan and Advances
11,552
12,525
12,000
12,000
Non Current Assets
148,844 161,842 161,414 157,690
Current Investments
Inventories
Trade Receivables
ST Loan and Advances
Current Assets
Total Assets
2,453
2,100
2,100
2,100
5,348
7,658
3,179
3,289
7,645
11,760
6,141
6,824
9,779
6,686
4,009
8,100
1,509
2,824
2,824
2,824
471
118
118
118
27,204 31,146 18,372 23,256
176,048 192,988 179,786 180,946
Merchant Tariff (INR/Unit)
4.1
Fuel Cost (INR/Unit)
2.5
1,730
- PPA (MW)
780
- Merchant (MW)
950
Avg PLF (%)
59
August 27 - 31, 2012
4.4
2.4
2,600
1,380
1,220
60
4.0
2.3
3,140
1,380
1,760
72
4.0
2.2
3,140
1,380
1,760
77
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
5.1
12.5
6.5
34.6
1.0
19.5
2.0
-60.6
4.1
34.8
0.5
24.7
3.8
87.8
7.1
36.8
0.4
9.6
6.4
68.5
11.8
42.1
1.0
15.0
24.5
12.1
11.4
2.7
1.4
1.0
13.0
6.9
7.5
2.3
1.3
0.7
7.7
4.2
5.6
1.9
1.2
1.9
14.8
9.7
5.8
6.4
10.6
10.5
16.2
13.9
1.5
1.5
1.8
1.4
2011
9,980
2,668
4,325
-1,563
-8,067
7,344
2012
3,739
5,033
7,172
-419
6,784
22,310
2013E
8,515
7,742
10,252
-2,377
-27,664
-3,533
2014E
13,448
8,841
10,105
-3,070
-2,892
26,432
(Inc)/Dec in FA
28,540
CF from Investments
19,037
10,014
130
10,143
2,899
-1,544
1,355
4,500
0
4,500
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
(Inc)/Dec in Deffered
Tax Liability
Dividend Paid
2,898
17,675
-2,155
-3,494
0
13,702
0
-6,130
527
-4,325
-1,906
14,868
1,698
-7,172
-3,530
-14,653
-13
-10,252
-603
2,834
-2,169
-10,105
-1,562
-19,966
3,730
6,048
9,779
-3,093
9,779
6,686
-2,677
6,686
4,009
3,154
4,947
8,101
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
97
JSW Steel
Company description
JSW Steel (JSTL) is currently the largest private sector
steel manufacturer in terms of installed capacity in
India. It has 10mtpa steel plant located in Vijaynagar,
Karnataka. With the acquisition of Ispat Industries and
Salem Steel, it controls 14mtpa capacity. Its Karnataka
facility is located in proximity to rich iron ore reserves
belt. It has investments in iron ore mining in Karnataka
and Chile. Its other overseas investments include plate
and pipe mill operations and coal mines in the US.
JSTL has demonstrated excellent project execution
skills over the past decade, growing its capacity 6x
to 10mtpa via brownfield expansions at Vijaynagar.
 It has the lowest conversion cost due to operational
efficiencies. Its strategic location near iron ore rich
Bellary-Hospet belt helps it to keep iron ore
purchase costs low; however, the ban on iron ore
mining at Bellary and subsequent non-availability
of adequate quantity at lower costs has derailed
volume growth.

Key challenges
Sluggish steel demand, cheaper imports and
enhanced capacity of steel majors due to recent
pricing which will result in lower margins.
 Sourcing iron ore is still a challenge in view of delay
in reopening Karnataka mines. JSW Steel has to

Stock info
JSTL IN
223
721
2.9
885 / 464
4 / -12 / 8
98
Timely restart of mining operations in Karnataka is
critical for JSTL to meet its production target of
8.5mtpa. Based on current stock and additional
supply from NMDC it can only produce ~4.2mt in
next 3 quarters.
 Supreme Court has favored restarting of Category
A&B iron ore mines in Karnataka and is likely to
pass order regarding the same after going through
CEC's R&R report.

JSTL's 1QFY13 adjusted standalone PAT increased
16% YoY to INR6.6b due to higher realization and
lower tax rate.
 Net Sales grew 28% YoY to INR90.4b driven by 4%
higher realization and 23% higher volumes. Sales
volume declined 9% QoQ to 2.19mt.
 EBITDA/ton increased 8% QoQ to USD154. Blended
realization increased 4% QoQ to INR42,853 due to
better sales mix.
 CEC has approved R&R plan for 7 Category A mines
and company expects these mines to be operational
in August after certain approvals.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
additionally live with deteriorating quality of iron
ore from e-auction in Karnataka, which has
increased the coke rate, reduced the campaign life
of equipment, and resulted in lower effective
capacity due to higher slag rate.
Jun-12
38.6
4.7
41.3
15.3
Mar-12
38.5
4.7
41.7
15.2
Jun-11
38.3
4.8
45.4
11.5
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
51.0
EBITDA
14,082
Change (%)
36.1
Reported PAT
5,783
Adjusted PAT
5,713
Change (%)
66.6
PAT Margin (%)
8.1
Sales (mt)
1.7
Realiz. (INR/ton) 41,245
EBITDA/ton(USD/ton) 184
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
76,321
32.1
13,104
32.1
17.2
1,271
5,993
82.6
7.9
Dec-11
78,765
35.6
12,534
25.3
15.9
6,684
9,592
155.7
12.2
Mar-12
95,447
34.3
16,518
-0.1
17.3
7,522
5,592
-32.3
5.9
Jun-12
90,376
27.8
17,728
25.9
19.6
2,690
6,632
16.1
7.3
FY12
321,227
37.5
56,238
17.7
17.5
21,260
26,890
36.5
8.4
FY13E
325,295
1.3
59,981
6.7
18.4
13,808
17,540
-34.8
5.4
1.9
40,553
152
1.9
41,281
129
2.3
41,319
143
2.1
42,853
154
7.8
41,109
150
8.1
39,961
138
August 27 - 31, 2012
JSW Steel: Financials and valuation
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Net sales
241,059 343,681 360,186 390,034
Change (%)
27.2
42.6
4.8
8.3
Total Expenses
192,380 282,662 294,778 325,789
EBITDA
48,679 61,019 65,408 64,245
% of Net Sales
20.2
17.8
18.2
16.5
15,597
19,332
22,059
22,587
EBIT
33,082 41,687 43,349 41,658
Net Interest
10,603
14,273
18,618
20,560
Other income
1,900
769
571
615
PBT before EO
24,379 28,183 25,302 21,713
EO income
-15,353
-5,948
PBT after EO
24,379 12,830 19,354 21,713
Tax
7,785
5,002
8,217
8,459
Rate (%)
31.9
39.0
42.5
39.0
Reported PAT
16,594
7,828 11,137 13,254
Minority interests
-239
189
36
36
Share of Associates
707
-2,262
-2,996
-2,000
Preference dividend
279
279
279
279
Adj. PAT (after MI & Asso) 16,783
14,844
11,321
11,011
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Total Loans
Capital Employed
2011
2,231
163,062
165,293
2,219
237,431
20,494
425,437
2012
2,231
165,265
167,496
2,177
298,513
27,250
495,435
2013E
2,231
168,400
170,631
2,213
304,461
33,021
510,327
2014E
2,231
177,175
179,406
2,250
324,461
38,755
544,872
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Others
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
337,771
68,732
269,039
65,078
26,437
98,329
44,097
9,334
23,170
21,729
33,446
64,884
425,437
426,895
88,775
338,121
35,703
18,856
146,453
57,893
15,394
32,653
40,514
43,698
102,755
495,435
456,895
110,834
346,061
55,703
18,856
136,772
59,209
14,802
22,248
40,514
47,065
89,707
510,327
486,895
133,421
353,474
75,703
18,856
147,584
64,115
16,029
26,926
40,514
50,745
96,839
544,872
Forex Rate (INR/USD)
45.6
Coal(Coking Hard fob)
214
Iron ore JSW (USD/ton)
60
Steel - JSW Steel (USD/ton) 780
Volumes (000 tons)
6,098
EBITDA per ton (USD)
172
47.9
288
65
815
7,814
150
53.5
202
59
709
8,140
138
52.0
200
60
699
9,400
120
Operating Parameters
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
75.2
144.3
740.8
12.3
20.9
66.5
121.7
750.7
7.5
15.4
50.7
148.8
764.8
7.5
20.2
49.4
160.6
804.1
7.5
20.7
10.8
5.9
1.0
1.2
7.0
1.0
1,140
14.2
4.8
0.9
1.2
6.8
1.0
1,018
14.6
4.5
0.9
1.2
7.1
1.0
938
12.3
9.6
8.9
8.7
6.7
8.1
6.3
7.6
Debtor (Days)
Creditors(Days)
14
45
16
44
15
45
15
45
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Debt/Equity
2.9
3.1
1.3
3.4
2.9
1.6
2.9
2.3
1.7
2.9
2.0
1.7
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/ton
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE (pre-tax)
Y/E March
EBITDA
Tax Paid
2012
61,019
-28,388
-4,113
28,518
2013E
65,408
2,643
-2,446
65,606
2014E
64,245
-2,453
-2,725
59,067
-52,994 -59,750
-266
7,581
Acquisition in subsidiaries-23,598
Int. & Dividend Income
526
769
-76,331 -51,400
-50,000
-50,000
571
-49,429
615
-49,385
61,082
-2,284
-14,273
-12,159
32,366
5,948
-2,237
-18,618
-11,676
-26,582
20,000
-2,237
-20,560
-2,206
-5,003
9,484
23,170
-10,406
32,653
4,678
22,248
32,653
22,248
26,926
Interest paid
Other financing
2011
48,679
-13,137
-4,269
31,273
(INR Million)
59,356
4,008
-2,397
-10,007
-281
50,679
(Inc)/Dec in Cash
5,621
Add: opening Balance
3,030
Margin Money & deb. bal. 14,518
Closing Balance
23,170
99
Kotak Mahindra Bank
Company description
Key challenges
Kotak Mahindra group is one of India's largest financial
conglomerates. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) together
with its subsidiaries has a presence across spectrum of
financial services – lending, broking, investment
banking, life insurance, asset management, and
proprietary investments. As on June 2012, KMB had 366
branches and consolidated asset base of INR968b.

KMB's dependence on earnings from non lending
businesses has reduced considerably over past few
years. Share of profits from lending business has
increased from 40-45% of total in FY07/08 to 80%+
currently, which provides stability to earnings.
 Outlook for the lending business remains healthy
as (1) Loan growth is likely to remain 20%+ in FY13/
14 with focus on corporate and secured retail loans,
and (2) Margins are likely to remain superior than
the industry at 4.5%+.
 KMB has demonstrated excellent asset quality
performance in the current credit cycle. Higher share
of secured products in the overall mix should also
augur well for asset quality.
 Life insurance business has turned profitable and is
unlikely to require any further capital infusion. With
improvement in the outlook for capital market
related businesses, the share of profits from non
lending businesses should rise going forward.

Stock info
KMB IN
742
588
7.8
612 / 411
-4 / 5 / 27
100
RBI has directed the bank to reduce promoter
holding to 20% by March 2018 from ~45% currently.
KMB's strategy on the same will have to be watched.
 Signals of improvement in the outlook for the
capital market related businesses.

While lending business PAT grew 9% YoY, in line with
our expectations, sluggish capital market business
affected overall profitability.
 Asset quality deteriorated as one large corporate
account slipped into NPA. Asset quality will remain
a key monitorable.
 Loan growth guidance for FY13 has been toned down
to 20%+ from 25-30% earlier.
 The management has maintained its margin
guidance of 4.5%+ (4.7% in 1QFY13) even if the loan
mix undergoes change.

KMB Group: Earnings Estimates
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Asset quality remains a key monitorable on the back
of early warning signs of asset quality deterioration
in some key products and continued policy paralysis.
 Moderating growth, especially in some of the high
yielding products, expected deterioration in asset
quality and higher base of FY12 (due to healthy
recoveries and just 15bp of credit cost) could put
pressure on lending business profitability.
Jun-12
45.2
4.5
34.3
16.1
Mar-12
45.3
4.7
33.9
16.1
Jun-11
45.5
5.4
31.7
17.4
Business
(INR Million)
FY10
FY11
FY12 FY13E FY14E
Kotak Mah. Bk.(Standalone) Banking Business 5,611 8,182 10,850 11,940
Kotak Mahindra Prime
Auto loans, debt
capital markets
1,664 3,179 3,849 4,057
Kotak Mahi. Investments
Primarily LAS
347
240
153
185
Lending Business
7,622 11,600 14,852 16,182
International subsidiaries Asset mgt & Inv. Bkg. 799
509
-110
0
Kotak Mah. AMC&Trustee Co Mutual funds mgt. 725
173
220
260
Kotak Investment Advisors Alternate asset mgt. 398
327
360
375
Asset Mgt Business
1,921 1,009
470
635
Kotak Securities
Broking & distri.
2,601 1,819 1,260 1,044
Kotak Mah. Capital Co.
Invest. Banking
239
519
60
222
Capital Market Business
2,840 2,338 1,320 1,265
Consol. PAT excl. Kotak Life
12,382 14,948 16,642 18,082
YoY Growth (%)
89
21
11
9
Kotak OM Life Insurance
Life insurance
692 1,014 2,030 2,233
Cons. Adjust.
-4
-294
-349
-150
Consol. PAT Incl. Kotak Life
13,070 15,667 18,322 20,165
YoY Growth (%)
100
20
17
10
13,404
4,571
194
18,170
50
278
425
753
1,052
250
1,302
20,224
12
2,568
-150
22,642
12
August 27 - 31, 2012
Kotak Mahindra Bank: Financials and valuation
Income Statement (Standalone)
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Interest Income
41,898
Interest Expense
20,922
Net Interest Income
20,976
Change (%)
12.9
Non Interest Income
7,805
Net Income
28,781
Change (%)
15.8
Operating Expenses
15,533
13,248
Change (%)
2.1
1,371
PBT
11,877
Tax
3,695
Tax Rate (%)
31.1
Standalone PAT
8,182
Change (%)
45.8
Consolidated PAT
15,667
Change (%)
19.9
462
Core PPP (Standlone)*
11,083
Change (%)
6.8
2012
61,802
36,677
25,125
19.8
9,773
34,898
21.3
18,348
16,550
24.9
551
15,999
5,149
32.2
10,850
32.6
18,322
16.9
517
14,445
30.3
2013E
76,212
45,039
31,172
24.1
11,040
42,213
21.0
22,533
19,680
18.9
2,121
17,559
5,619
32.0
11,940
10.0
20,165
10.1
590
17,180
18.9
2012
3,703
75,756
79,459
385,365
31.7
124,024
41.1
165,955
25,885
656,665
26,346
215,668
26.0
390,792
33.2
4,500
19,359
656,665
2013E
3,703
87,106
90,809
489,414
27.0
154,102
24.3
198,695
30,985
809,903
45,504
258,802
20.0
476,767
22.0
4,632
24,199
809,903
Balance Sheet (Standalone)
Y/E March
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Deposits
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings
Total Liabilities
Current Assets
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
(INR Million)
2011
3,684
64,280
67,965
292,610
22.5
87,905
17.8
117,239
30,693
508,507
24,710
171,214
36.8
293,293
41.2
4,256
15,033
508,507
Asset Quality (Standalone, Excl. acquired NPA)
GNPA (INR m)
NNPA (INR m)
GNPA Ratio
NNPA Ratio
PCR (Incl acquired NPA)
PCR (Excl acquired NPA)
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
89,659
52,648
37,010
18.7
13,209
50,220
19.0
26,333
23,886
21.4
4,174
19,712
6,308
32.0
13,404
12.3
22,642
12.3
662
20,936
21.9
3,618
1,461
1.22
0.50
65.0
59.6
4,778
2,243
1.21
0.57
61.4
53.0
2014E
3,703
99,848
103,552
601,979
23.0
195,524
26.9
237,683
37,113
980,326
54,406
310,562
20.0
581,655
22.0
4,665
29,039
980,326
(%)
8,131
4,497
1.69
0.94
50.0
44.7
10,984
5,874
1.87
1.01
50.0
46.5
Ratios (Standalone)
Y/E March
Avg. Yield on loans
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
Consolidated ROE
Standalone Core RoE
Standalone RoA
Loans/Deposit Ratio
Loans/(Dep.+Borrowings)
CASA Ratio
Invest/(Dep.+Borrowings)
CAR
Tier 1
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
10.4
12.8
6.5
5.9
5.6
4.5
5.2
11.4
14.2
6.8
7.6
7.4
3.8
4.6
11.2
13.5
7.4
7.3
7.1
4.0
4.6
10.9
13.0
7.4
6.9
6.6
4.0
4.5
16.6
15.4
1.9
49.9
27.1
15.4
15.4
1.9
59.3
28.0
14.5
14.6
1.6
59.1
26.2
14.2
14.3
1.5
58.7
26.3
100.2
71.6
30.0
58.5
41.8
19.9
18.0
101.4
70.9
32.2
56.0
39.1
17.5
15.7
97.4
69.3
31.5
52.9
37.6
17.1
15.3
96.6
69.3
32.5
51.6
37.0
16.2
14.5
92.2
43.2
107.3
16.3
4.4
174.2
17.1
3.4
100.9
4.6
172.1
3.4
14.2
35.3
33.1
24.7
16.3
23.8
0.6
0.1
122.6
14.3
3.7
200.6
15.2
2.9
114.2
4.0
196.4
3.0
15.5
9.7
29.5
27.2
10.1
21.6
0.7
0.1
139.8
14.0
3.2
230.3
14.8
2.6
130.2
3.4
224.7
2.6
17.4
12.0
25.3
30.6
12.3
19.2
0.8
0.1
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
BV Growth (%)
AP/BV (x)
Consol BV (INR)
BV Growth (%)
Price-Consol BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)*
AP/ABV (x)
Adjusted Consol BV
Price-Consol ABV (x)
Standalone EPS (Rs)
EPS Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Consol EPS (INR)
Con. EPS Growth (%)
Price-Concol EPS (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
148.8
30.9
86.5
147.4
10.5
36.4
21.3
13.3
0.5
101
Larsen & Toubro
Company description
Key challenges
L&T is India's largest engineering and construction
company. It is a conglomerate with interests in
technology, engineering, construction, manufacturing
and financial services. The company is also involved in
various developmental projects on BOT basis in roads,
ports, rail and power sectors. Exports contribute around
~18% of order intake. Large manufacturing capacities in
segments like power BTG, forging, ship-building, etc
are being commissioned.


L&T has demonstrated strong adaptability, given
exposure to various segments and geographies; and
has thus been able to weather the challenging
macro environment much better than peers. Order
backlog stands at INR1,531b implying BTB ratio of
2.8x TTM. We believe L&T has carved out a
differentiated positioning given strong execution
skills, diversified portfolio and balance sheet; and
will benefit from likely pick-up in demand.
 Revenue growth is robust, with management
guiding for FY13 growth at 15-20%, on back of 21%
growth in FY12.
 Margins have remained stable, given the strong risk
mitigation measures being practised. Order intake
is also expected to be steady with management
guidance of 15-20% growth, despite a challenging
macro environment.

Stock info
LT IN
613
1,453
16.0
1,720 / 971
2 / 4 / -17
102
L&T has signed shareholders agreement with
Mazagon Dock, India's biggest naval shipyard to
manufacture defense submarines.
 L&T is targeting to monetize some its mature assets
to unlock value. The company is also looking for
external funding in its developmental project
portfolios. Attempts to correct the capital structure
will act as a strong re-rating trigger.
1QFY13 operating performance was in-line with
estimates. Revenue grew 27% YoY in 1QFY13 to
INR120b while adj EBITDA margin declined 152bp
YoY. Adjusted PAT (excl dividend from subsidiaries)
grew just 2.9% YoY to INR7.1b.
 Working capital deteriorated at 15.3% of revenues
v/s 11.9% YoY, due to increased support to vendors.
 Management has maintained its order intake and
revenue growth guidance of 15-20% YoY.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Order intake is driven by shortgestation projects
particularly from the infrastructure segment. Also,
key investments in manufacturing JVs and BOT
projects are likely to be a drag on profits in the near
term, impacting RoEs.
 Unfavorable political climate, logjams relating to
clearances for projects, etc, are impediments for
order intake growth, impacting earnings growth.
Jun-11
0.0
38.4
18.2
43.4
Mar-11
0.0
36.6
19.7
43.7
Jun-10
0.0
36.6
21.3
42.1
Y/E March
Operating Income
94,826 112,452 139,836
Change (%)
21.1
21.4
23.5
EBITDA
11,265 11,741 13,641
Change (%)
12.1
16.7
10.2
10.4
9.8
Reported PAT
7,461
7,984
9,915
Adjusted PAT
7,461
7,984 11,275
Change (%)
12.0
15.0
40.0
PAT Margin (%)
7.9
7.1
8.1
Key Operating Matrics
Order intake (INR b) 161.9
161.0
171.3
Order intake gr. (%)
3.6
(21.3)
28.2
WCap.(% of sales)
10.3
12.6
13.0
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Mar-12
184,609
21.0
25,608
9.3
13.9
19,204
18,654
22.1
10.1
Jun-12
119,554
26.1
10,869
(3.5)
9.1
8,635
10,023
34.3
8.4
FY12
531,705
21.1
62,826
11.4
11.8
44,565
44,825
23.7
8.4
FY13E
618,981
16.4
71,418
13.7
11.5
47,667
49,180
9.7
7.9
211.6
(30.2)
11.8
196.0
21.1
15.3
705.7
(11.5)
12.0
740.7
4.9
15.9
August 27 - 31, 2012
Larsen & Toubro: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Total Revenues
442,961 537,378 625,585 709,180
Growth Rate (%)
18.6
21.3
16.4
13.4
Excise Duty
3,902
5,673
6,604
7,486
Net Revenues
439,059 531,705 618,981 701,694
Growth Rate (%)
18.6
21.1
16.4
13.4
Manufacturing Expenses 334,681 410,202 481,510 545,530
Staff Cost
28,301
36,635
41,031
45,134
S G &A Expenses
19,778
22,230
25,023
28,367
EBITDA
56,299 62,639 71,418 82,663
Change (%)
18.8
11.3
14.0
15.7
EBITDA Margin (%)
12.8
12.2
11.5
11.8
Depreciation
5,905
6,817
8,079
9,288
EBIT
50,394 55,822 63,339 73,375
Net Interest
6,193
6,661
9,200
9,800
Other Income
9,106
13,078
13,956
12,500
Non-recurring Other Income 2,369
305
0
0
Add: Trf to Rev. Res.
11
10
10
10
Profit before Tax
55,686 62,554 68,104 76,085
Tax
19,436
18,538
20,091
22,445
Effective Tax Rate (%)
34.9
29.6
29.5
29.5
Reported Profit
39,580
44,566 48,014 53,640
EO Adjustments
3,329
550
-383
0
Adjusted Profit
36,250 44,016 48,397 53,640
Cons. Profit (Adj)
42,416 47,730 51,950 56,483
Growth (%)
14.3
12.5
8.8
8.7
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Equity Capital
Net Worth
Debt
Capital Employed
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
1,218
1,224
1,224
1,224
217,245 251,005 284,454 322,612
218,463 252,229 285,678 323,836
71,611
98,958 115,000 120,000
2,635
1,330
1,330
1,330
292,708 352,517 402,008 445,166
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Add: Capital WIP
Net Fixed Assets
Investments
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Advances
Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Capital Deployed
89,465
23,025
7,713
74,153
146,848
15,772
124,276
17,296
82,253
110,501
350,097
278,392
71,705
292,706
August 27 - 31, 2012
105,544
29,495
7,587
83,636
158,719
17,766
187,298
17,781
91,280
120,448
434,574
324,411
110,163
352,518
128,631
37,574
4,500
95,557
139,307
18,569
235,213
38,799
103,976
137,447
534,005
366,861
167,144
402,008
148,631
46,863
4,500
106,268
153,174
21,051
266,644
36,633
113,183
155,644
593,155
407,431
185,724
445,166
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Con. EPS (Fully Diluted)
Growth (%)
Book Value
Dividend Per Share
Div. Payout (Incl. Div Tax ) %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
59.5
12.6
69.7
13.0
358.8
14.5
28.4
73.2
23.0
78.0
11.9
412.1
16.5
25.3
80.3
9.6
84.9
8.8
466.8
20.1
29.5
87.6
9.2
92.3
8.7
529.1
21.9
28.9
Valuation (x)
P/E (Standalone)
P/E (Consolidated)
EV/EBITDA
EV/ Sales
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield
29.9
25.6
18.9
2.4
5.0
0.8
19.7
18.5
14.3
1.7
3.5
1.1
18.1
17.1
13.1
1.5
3.1
1.4
16.6
15.7
11.5
1.3
2.7
1.5
Return Ratio (%)
RoE
RoCE
16.6
13.9
17.8
14.1
17.2
13.9
16.6
13.6
102.4
13.0
1.5
127.2
12.1
1.5
137.2
10.8
1.6
137.2
10.8
1.6
1.3
-0.1
1.3
0.0
1.5
0.2
1.5
0.2
2011
55,686
6,003
6,193
19,436
-9,269
39,177
2012
62,554
7,005
6,661
18,538
-34,431
23,250
2013E
68,104
8,079
9,200
20,091
-34,749
30,544
2014E
76,085
9,288
9,800
22,445
-21,612
51,116
-16,429
9,972
-19,766
-9,598
-35,822
-16,487
4,108
-15,979
-4,703
-33,061
-20,000
39,028
-19,616
-3,527
-4,115
-20,000
10,000
-23,866
-2,569
-36,436
11,257
3,603
6,193
8,973
-306
3,048
14,319
17,367
-429
27,347
6,661
9,962
10,295
483
17,296
17,779
-383
16,042
9,200
11,119
-4,660
21,769
17,781
39,550
0
5,000
9,800
14,181
-18,981
-4,301
38,799
34,498
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Current Ratio (x)
D/E (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Investment in subs
Advances to subs
CF from Investments
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Dividend Paid
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
103
LIC Housing Finance
Company description
Key challenges
LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) is India's second largest
housing finance company. It offers individual housing
loans and loans to developers as project finance. LICHF
operates through a network of 190 marketing offices
and a large number of DSAs and home loan agents. It
also has a representative office in Dubai and Kuwait.
Its AUM stands at INR656b as on June 2012.

Despite moderation in economic growth, structural
growth drivers for the Indian housing finance
industry remain intact. This, coupled with LICHF's
strong foothold in tier II and tier III cities, would
help it achieve healthy growth going forward. We
model in ~24% loan CAGR over FY12-14.
 LICHF had slowed down growth in its developer loan
portfolio given uncertain macro environment. As a
result, the developer loan portfolio declined from
11% of loans in FY10 to ~5% in FY12. Going forward,
LICHF intends to selectively grow this portfolio,
which would help improve its spreads.
 Spreads have bottomed out and should improve
from current levels led by (1) decline in cost of
funds, (2) asset re-pricing benefits on the teaser
rate loans (partially in FY13 and partially in FY14),
and (3) increase in share of developer loans.
 Asset quality is expected to remain healthy on the
back of the secured nature of loans and historically
lower default rates in the mortgages business.

Stock info
LICHF IN
505
250
2.3
290 / 196
-9 / -4 / 15
104
SBI has reduced interest rates on home loans
offering the lowest rate on the street. If some of
the other major private / PSU banks follow suit, it
may intensify competition in this space.
 The NHB has waived off pre-payment penalty on
floating rate loans converted from teaser rate loans.
This may lead to increase in the repayment rates,
which will be monitored over next few quarters.

LICHF's 1QFY13 performance was much below
expectations driven by disappointment on margins
front and higher provisioning expenses.
 Margins contracted 26bp sequentially on the back
of sharp 36bp QoQ increase in cost of funds, while
the yield on loans remained flat.
 For FY13, management has guided for INR220b (6%
YoY growth) disbursements in the individual
segment and INR20b in the developer segment.
 Management is targeting margins of 2.5-2.7% by
March 2013 (v/s 2.18% in 1QFY13) and spread of 1.61.7% (v/s 1.1% in 1QFY13).

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Intensifying competition from banks / NBFCs to grab
market share in this secularly growing industry could
lead to rate war.
 Inability to grow the developer loan portfolio on
expected lines may not allow spreads to expand.
Jun-12
40.3
9.1
37.5
13.1
Mar-12
40.3
9.4
37.1
13.2
Jun-11
36.6
7.8
40.4
15.3
Y/E March
Jun-11
YoY Gr. (%)
22.6
Operating Profit
3,789
YoY Gr. (%)
27.0
Provisions
334
PBT
3,454
Tax
889
Profit after Tax
2,565
YoY Gr. (%)
21.0
Loan Growth (%)
32.1
NIM (%; Calc.)
2.78
GNPA (%)
0.84
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
3,342
9.5
3,354
5.1
2,047
1,307
323
984
-58.0
Dec-11
3,258
-7.5
3,262
-33.3
-797
4,059
1,003
3,056
43.1
Mar-12
3,708
-11.8
3,464
-22.7
-24
3,488
952
2,536
-19.4
Jun-12
3,505
-2.9
3,479
-8.2
436
3,043
766
2,277
-11.2
FY12
13,916
1.4
13,870
-10.8
1,561
12,309
3,167
9,142
-6.2
FY13E
17,252
24.0
16,963
22.3
1,103
15,860
4,362
11,499
25.8
29.3
2.45
0.64
26.6
2.27
0.63
23.5
2.44
0.42
24.1
2.18
0.71
23.5
2.44
0.42
23.9
2.44
0.46
August 27 - 31, 2012
LIC Housing Finance: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net Interest Income
Change (%)
Fee Income
Income from Investments
Other Income
Net Income
Change (%)
Operating Expenses
Operating Income
Change (%)
Provisions/write offs
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Proposed Dividend
(INR Million)
2011
44,697
30,977
13,719
54.7
1,501
603
1,886
17,710
65.0
2,162
15,548
76.3
2,609
12,939
3,197
24.7
9,743
47.3
10,285
55.5
1,932
2012
59,827
45,911
13,916
1.4
1,322
804
198
16,240
-8.3
2,371
13,870
-10.8
1,561
12,309
3,167
25.7
9,142
-6.2
10,011
-2.7
2,112
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Borrowings
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Net Fixed Assets
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
950
40,741
41,691
451,628
29.9
493,319
14,032
1.0
510,898
34.2
339
-31,949
493,319
2012
1,010
55,812
56,822
560,873
24.2
617,695
13,750
-2.0
630,802
23.5
623
-27,481
617,695
2013E
74,315
57,063
17,252
24.0
1,486
804
218
19,760
21.7
2,798
16,963
22.3
1,103
15,860
4,362
27.5
11,499
25.8
11,499
14.9
2,691
Ratios
2014E
90,512
68,048
22,464
30.2
1,870
904
243
25,481
28.9
3,351
22,130
30.5
-618
22,748
6,256
27.5
16,492
43.4
15,332
33.3
3,859
Y/E March
2011
Avg. Yield on loans
10.0
Avg. Yield on Earning Assets 9.8
7.8
Int. Spread on housing loans 2.3
NIM on housing loans
3.1
(INR Million)
87.5
2013E
1,010
64,620
65,630
707,193
26.1
772,823
15,125
10.0
781,429
23.9
739
-24,470
772,823
2014E
1,010
77,253
78,263
893,936
26.4
972,199
16,638
10.0
976,980
25.0
795
-22,213
972,199
2012
2013E
2014E
10.5
10.3
9.1
1.4
2.4
10.5
10.4
9.0
1.5
2.4
10.3
10.2
8.5
1.8
2.6
Adj RoAE
Adj RoAA
27.2
2.4
69.3
10.7
20.3
1.8
76.7
1.2
18.8
1.7
76.8
1.1
21.3
1.8
75.2
1.0
Fees/Operating income
3.2
12.2
31.5
2.1
14.6
30.6
1.9
14.2
32.4
2.0
13.1
32.4
87.8
23.1
112.5
28.2
2.2
112.1
2.2
18.1
-11.7
13.8
19.8
-8.4
12.6
3.6
1.4
130.0
15.5
1.9
129.3
1.9
22.8
25.8
11.0
22.8
14.9
11.0
4.6
1.8
155.0
19.2
1.6
154.2
1.6
32.7
43.4
7.7
30.4
33.3
8.2
6.5
2.6
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
Growth (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Adj. EPS (INR)
Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend Per Share
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
20.5
47.3
21.7
55.5
3.5
105
Lupin
Company description
Key challenges
Lupin (LPC) has successfully transitioned from a
domestic anti-TB company to a global generic company
with presence across therapeutic segments. US (36% of
sales), India (28% of sales), Japan (15% of sales) and
emerging markets (8% of sales) are its key markets.








Significant scale-up & internationalization of
operations without dilution of return ratios has been
LPC's key achievement over the last five years. We
expect high return ratios to sustain, given the
company's efficient capital allocation strategy.
LPC has a strong launch pipeline for the US with 120
ANDAs pending US FDA approval. It targets to
commercialize these over the next 3-4 years.
It has filed for niche, high-margins opportunities
like oral contraceptives (OC), ophthalmology which
will gradually start contributing meaningful
revenues over the next 2 years.
Increased traction in India formulations and
emerging markets should augur well.
Only Indian company to have a significant presence
in Japan (through past acquisitions) which positions
it rightly for exploiting the Japanese generic
opportunity.
Aspires to become a USD3b company by FY15
implying a topline CAGR of 25% over FY12-15.
Stock info
LPC IN
447
571
4.6
604 / 410
-3 / 20 / 23
106
Ramp-up in approvals and subsequent market share
gain in the OC segment in the US.
 Sustained launch of new products in US & India –
this is imperative to drive future topline growth.
 Government's progress on the implementation of
the new Pharma Policy.
1QFY13 highlights
Performance was in-line with core topline growth
of 33%, core EBITDA growth of 21% and flat Adj PAT
growth. Topline growth was led US and India
formulations business and was partly boosted by
favorable currency.
 Although Japan revenues grew 100%, adjusted for
Irom acquisition and currency benefit, core organic
growth was ~11%.
 Core EBITDA margin declined 150bp YoY v/s our
estimate of 40bp decline due to higher than
expected staff cost and other expenses.
 Adj PAT growth was flat despite 21% EBITDA growth
due to higher tax rate at 30%.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
 Potential generic competition for Suprax, a key
profit contributor for LPC as of now.
Jun-12
46.9
16.1
28.2
8.9
Mar-12
46.9
16.5
27.7
8.9
Jun-11
47.0
19.1
23.9
10.1
Y/E March
Operating Income
15,432 16,448 17,917
Oper. Inc. (ex one-offs)15,432 16,448 17,717
Change (%)
17.6
17.1
20.8
EBITDA
2,698
2,764
3,783
EBITDA (ex one-offs) 2,698
2,764
3,653
Change (%)
2.9
2.5
34.7
EBITDA Margin (%)
17.5
16.8
20.6
Reported PAT
2,140
2,718
2,406
Adj. PAT (ex one-offs) 2,101
2,010
2,498
Change (%)
7.0
-6.5
11.5
PAT Margin (%)
13.6
12.2
14.1
US
4,931
5,520
6,188
Europe
415
461
644
India
4,969
5,120
5,198
Japan
1,666
1,780
2,468
RoW
1,348
1,591
1,439
APIs
2,102
1,976
1,981
(INR Million)
Mar-12
18,832
17,012
11.7
3,321
2,411
-8.2
14.2
1,283
499
-77.6
2.9
Jun-12
22,192
20,491
32.8
4,230
3,270
21.2
16.0
2,850
2,098
-0.1
10.2
FY12
69,597
67,577
18.4
13,215
12,175
14.2
18.0
10,295
8,677
1.1
12.8
FY13E
88,090
86,389
27.8
16,906
15,946
31.0
18.5
11,681
10,649
22.7
12.3
8,664
455
4,192
2,693
1,873
2,432
8,024
473
6,212
3,329
1,837
2,317
25,303
1,975
19,479
8,607
6,251
8,491
31,802
2,410
23,570
12,725
9,064
9,051
August 27 - 31, 2012
Lupin: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Other Income - Rec.
PBT after EO item
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
PAT Adj for EO items
Less: Minority Interest
Adj Net Profit
(INR Million)
2011
57,068
20.4
10,659
18.7
1,755
8,903
325
1,341
9,920
1,169
11.8
8,750
8,750
168
8,582
2012
69,597
22.0
13,215
19.0
2,275
10,940
355
1,376
11,961
3,086
25.8
10,295
8,875
199
8,676
2013E
2014E
88,090 101,091
26.6
14.8
16,906 20,382
19.2
20.2
2,791
3,211
14,115 17,170
451
451
1,743
1,767
15,407 18,486
3,852
4,437
25.0
24.0
11,555 14,050
10,849
14,050
200
220
10,649
13,830
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
892
Fully Diluted Equity Capital 889
Other Reserves
31,918
Total Reserves
31,918
Net Worth
32,811
Minority Interest
515
1,411
Total Loans
11,624
Capital Employed
46,361
2012
893
893
39,236
39,236
40,129
723
1,442
15,542
57,836
2013E
893
893
47,269
47,269
48,163
723
1,442
15,542
65,869
2014E
893
893
57,054
57,054
57,947
723
1,442
15,542
75,654
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Goodwill & Intangibles
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Others
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
17,313
5,312
32
3,255
34,967
12,000
12,558
4,201
6,208
14,518
11,800
2,718
20,449
46,361
22,457
4,437
28
5,040
46,911
17,327
17,318
4,025
8,241
21,037
17,750
3,287
25,874
57,836
25,665
5,312
28
5,040
53,243
19,380
20,261
4,794
8,809
23,419
19,380
4,040
29,824
65,869
28,454
5,312
28
5,040
61,905
22,240
23,251
6,305
10,109
25,085
20,218
4,867
36,820
75,654
Y/E March
Formulations
Regulated Mkts
Emerging Mkts
India
APIs & Others
2011
48,485
28,229
4,393
15,863
8,937
2012
61,615
35,885
6,251
19,479
8,402
2013E
79,570
46,937
9,064
23,570
9,051
2014E
92,228
52,615
11,330
28,284
9,472
Gross Sales
57,422
70,017
88,622 101,701
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS (Fully Diluted)
Cash EPS (Fully Diluted)
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
19.3
23.2
73.5
3.2
18.9
19.4
24.5
89.8
4.9
24.7
23.8
30.1
107.8
6.4
28.7
31.0
38.2
129.7
7.7
28.8
Valuation (x)
P/E (Fully Diluted)
Cash P/E (Fully Diluted)
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
29.6
24.6
7.8
4.6
24.6
0.6
29.4
23.3
6.4
3.8
20.2
0.9
23.9
19.0
5.3
3.0
15.7
1.1
18.4
15.0
4.4
2.6
13.0
1.4
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
29.3
25.1
23.8
24.6
24.1
26.6
26.1
27.6
2.3
Debtor (Days)
87
Inventory (Days)
77
Wkg. Capital Turnover (Days) 131
2.2
105
91
136
2.2
105
80
124
2.2
102
80
133
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.4
0.3
0.3
Y/E March
2011
2012
Oper. Profit/(Loss) before Tax10,659 13,215
1,341
1,376
Direct Taxes Paid
-1,193
-3,055
(Inc)/Dec in WC
-2,401
-5,601
CF from Op. incl EO Exp.
8,405
5,935
2013E
16,906
1,743
-3,852
-3,181
11,616
2014E
20,382
1,767
-4,437
-5,484
12,228
(inc)/dec in FA
-4,996
233
CF from Investments
-4,763
-6,909
4
-6,905
-6,875
0
-6,875
-6,000
0
-6,000
Change in Net Worth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
300
226
-325
-1,658
-1,457
-232
3,917
-355
-2,538
793
-200
0
-451
-3,321
-3,972
-220
0
-451
-4,045
-4,716
2,186
2,015
4,201
-177
4,201
4,024
769
4,025
4,794
1,512
4,794
6,305
0.4
Cash Flow Statement
August 27 - 31, 2012
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
107
Mahindra Finance
Company description
Key challenges
Mahindra Finance (MMFS) is one of India's leading nonbanking finance companies providing personalized
finance for utility vehicles, tractors, cars, commercial
vehicles, construction equipment, and refinance
focusing on the rural and semi-urban sector.

As on June 2012, MMFS operated through a widespread
network of 615 branches and had AUM of INR217b.
Below-normal monsoon could adversely impact
growth and asset quality going forward.
 Proposed regulatory changes for NBFCs relating to
asset classification and provisioning norms to be
brought at par with banks could lead to lower return
ratios.
Trajectory of monsoon will be watched closely given
its correlation with MMFS' growth and asset quality.
 RBI's final guidelines for NBFCs based on the
recommendations by Usha Thorat Committee will
determine the impact of regulatory changes on
MMFS' return ratios going forward.

MMFS has achieved strong asset growth in past five
years (24% CAGR during FY07-12) on the back of:
(1) buoyant rural demand driven by strong rural cash
flows, and (2) its multi-product strategy which has
protected it from cyclical shocks. We expect AUM
CAGR of ~25% over FY12-14.
 MMFS delivered stellar asset quality performance
in FY12, with GNPAs at levels lowest in a decade. As
on March 2012, GNPAs stood at 3.0% and NNPAs at
0.7%. Provision cover remained healthy at 78%.
Although poor monsoon remains a key risk to MMFS'
asset quality, diversified product mix and customer
profile should help partially mitigate the same.
 Given its lower dependence on asset securitization
for resource mobilization (less than 15% as on June
2012), MMFS remains relatively insulated from the
current regulatory changes pertaining to
securitization and priority sector lending.

Stock info
MMFS IN
104
783
1.5
805 / 590
14 / 12 / 12
108
MMFS' 1QFY13 performance was better than
expected led by (1) strong AUM growth (+5% QoQ;
38% YoY), (2) better than expected margin
performance, and (3) tight control over opex.
 Asset quality remained healthy and improved on a
YoY basis. In percentage terms, GNPAs declined to
3.8% from 4.6% in 1QFY12.
 For FY13, management has maintained its 25-30%
disbursements growth target.
 If the 90-day asset classification norms are made
applicable to AFCs, then GNPAs may increase by
INR2.5-3b.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
57.2
5.4
32.7
4.7
Mar-12
57.3
5.0
34.1
3.7
Jun-11
57.4
3.6
34.7
4.4
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Oper. Income
3,443
YoY Gr. (%)
27.6
Operating Profit
2,074
YoY Gr. (%)
25.5
Provisions
561
PBT
1,513
Tax
491
Profit after Tax
1,022
YoY Gr. (%)
37.7
AUM Growth (%)
38.9
Gross Spread (%)
10.0
GNPA (%)
4.6
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
4,061
24.1
2,539
22.3
523
2,016
661
1,355
16.3
Dec-11
4,264
22.3
2,797
22.8
494
2,303
756
1,547
33.5
Mar-12
5,166
32.4
3,563
45.0
142
3,421
1,144
2,277
45.4
Jun-12
4,916
42.8
3,248
56.6
854
2,395
784
1,610
57.6
FY12
16,743
27.1
10,823
29.0
1,570
9,254
3,051
6,202
33.9
FY13E
22,688
35.5
15,148
40.0
2,982
12,167
4,015
8,152
31.4
40.7
10.2
4.0
40.1
10.2
4.1
36.2
10.7
3.0
37.9
9.5
3.8
36.2
10.7
3.0
25.6
NA
3.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mahindra Finance: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Interest Income
18,545
Interest Expended
6,602
Net Interest Income
11,943
Change (%)
32.2
Income from Securitisation 906
Other Income
324
Net Income
13,173
Change (%)
23.4
Operating Expenses
4,783
Operating Income
8,390
Change (%)
13.1
Provisions and W/Offs
1,365
PBT
7,024
Tax
2,393
Tax Rate (%)
34.1
PAT
4,631
Change (%)
34.5
Proposed Dividend (InclTax) 1,213
2012
26,500
11,203
15,297
28.1
925
521
16,743
27.1
5,920
10,823
29.0
1,570
9,253
3,051
33.0
6,201
33.9
1,682
2013E
34,141
14,523
19,618
28.3
2,697
372
22,688
35.5
7,540
15,148
40.0
2,982
12,166
4,015
33.0
8,151
31.4
2,146
2012
1,027
28,496
29,523
139,611
44.3
169,134
5,025
-25.5
173,449
41.4
989
-10,342
169,121
2013E
1,027
34,502
35,528
174,394
24.9
209,922
5,527
10.0
210,113
21.1
925
-6,644
209,922
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Borrowings
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Investments
Change (%)
Loans and Advances
Change (%)
Net Fixed Assets
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
40,534
17,501
23,033
17.4
4,005
422
27,460
21.0
9,101
18,360
21.2
3,994
14,366
4,741
33.0
9,625
18.1
2,534
(INR Million)
2011
1,025
23,876
24,901
96,750
49.8
121,651
6,746
212.4
122,673
42.0
818
-8,586
121,651
2014E
1,027
41,593
42,620
214,515
23.0
257,134
6,080
10.0
258,451
23.0
830
-8,227
257,134
Ratios
Y/E March
Yield on Portfolio
Cost of Borrowings
Interest Spread
Net Int. Margin (on AUMs)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
17.7
8.2
9.5
10.8
17.7
9.5
8.2
9.7
17.8
9.3
8.5
10.0
17.3
9.0
8.3
9.8
RoE
RoA (on balance sheet)
RoA on AUM
Average Leverage (x)
Average leverage on AUM (x)
22.0
4.6
3.7
4.8
5.9
22.8
4.3
3.5
5.3
6.4
25.1
4.3
3.6
5.8
6.9
24.6
4.1
3.5
6.0
7.1
Secur. Inc./Net Income
35.6
36.3
31.7
6.9
42.3
35.4
33.7
5.5
42.5
33.2
34.4
11.9
43.2
33.1
34.8
14.6
Loans/Borrowings Ratio
Net NPAs to Adv.
126.8
0.6
124.2
0.7
120.5
0.7
120.5
0.7
242.8
34.9
287.4
18.3
2.7
279.7
2.8
105.4
28.7
7.4
60.4
33.6
12.9
14.0
1.8
345.9
20.4
2.3
336.0
2.3
147.5
40.0
5.3
79.4
31.4
9.8
17.9
2.3
414.9
20.0
1.9
402.9
1.9
178.8
21.2
4.4
93.7
18.1
8.3
21.1
2.7
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
BV Growth (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
OPS (INR)
OPS Growth (%)
Price-OP (x)
EPS (INR)
EPS Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend
Dividend Yield (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
238.1
81.9
5.9
45.2
26.0
10.0
109
Mahindra & Mahindra
Company description
Key challenges
M&M is India's market leader in UV (52% share) and
tractors (41% share). It also has presence in 2-wheeler,
3-wheeler and CV segments. In 2011, it acquired 70%
stake in Ssangyong (South Korea) to expand its presence
in global SUV markets.

Apart from core auto business, it has subsidiaries/
associates in various businesses like IT, NBFC, Auto
ancillaries, hospitality, infrastructure etc.
Competitive dynamics in both UVs and tractors
remain favorable, led by limited competition and
consolidated nature of the industry.
 It plans to launch 6-7 new products in auto segment,
including a mini-SUV, sub 4m Verito, Rexton
(Ssangyong), new MPV and new electric vehicleNXR in FY13. In Farm Equipment, it will be launching
one new tractor along with 3-4 refreshes. This
coupled with the full benefit of 12 launches in FY12,
would also help support volumes.
 Expect margins to improve 20bp in FY13 (incl MVML)
on account of better product mix within auto
segment led by ramp up of XUV5OO and operating
leverage due to ramp-up at Chakan plant.
 M&M's investments in its subsidiary and associate
companies add substantially to its valuations. Value
unlocking in these companies would act as catalyst
for M&M's stock.
Stock info
MM IN
614
767
8.4
875 / 622
5/6/1
110
Tractor volume momentum due to weak monsoon.
 Additional duty on diesel vehicles.
 Response to new launches in UV segment by
competition.
1QFY13 realization was up 7.4% QoQ (22% YoY) at
INR507,173/unit) driven by a) mix improvement
(led by XUV5OO), b) price increase and c) weak INR.
 Incl MVML, EBITDA margin declined 30bp YoY to
13.9% (+180bp QoQ); Auto segment PBIT margin
improved 50bp QoQ (-70bp YoY) to 11.2%, whereas
tractor business PBIT margin was stable QoQ at
15.7% (down 30bp YoY). PAT grew 26% YoY to INR7.8b
(-3% QoQ).
 M&M lowered tractor industry's FY13 growth
guidance to ~2% (v/s 5-6% earlier). However, it
maintained guidance for UV volumes at 12-14%,
driven by XUV5OO, Bolero and new launches.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others


Any additional duty on diesel vehicles would
adversely impact M&M as its entire UV portfolio is
diesel based.
 Maintaining market share in increasingly
competitive UVs segment, with new entrants like
Maruti, Renault, Ford etc.
 Successful integration and turnaround of Ssangyong.
Jun-12
25.5
19.9
37.1
17.5
Mar-12
25.3
20.7
35.9
18.2
Jun-11
24.9
22.6
33.8
18.8
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Op. Income
67,537
Change (%)
EBITDA
9,658
EBITDA Margins (%)14.3
Change (%)
Adj PAT
6,183
Change (%)
Volumes (nos) 159,197
Change (%)
25.1
Realiz. (INR/car) 424,238
Change (%)
Auto - PBIT Mar. (%) 11.9
FES - PBIT Mar. (%) 16.0
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
72,931
10,022
13.7
7,917
170,701
29.2
427,241
11.2
15.3
Dec-11
82,156
33.9
10,903
13.3
12.5
6,770
11.3
Mar-12
91,188
33.0
11,029
12.1
14.9
8,030
19.4
Jun-12
88,785
31.5
12,350
13.9
27.9
7,785
25.9
FY12
313,811
33.2
41,613
13.3
14.9
28,888
12.4
FY13E
379,655
21.0
51,064
13.5
22.7
33,089
14.5
183,228
23.3
448,379
8.6
10.1
15.6
195,478
21.8
466,486
9.2
10.7
15.7
182,149
14.4
487,431
14.9
11.2
15.7
704,935
24.2
445,163
7.3
10.9
15.7
780,899
10.8
486,177
9.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mahindra & Mahindra: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Total Income
234,603 318,535 396,738 446,643
Change (%)
26.2
35.8
24.6
12.6
EBITDA
34,543 37,707 45,693 49,223
Margins (%)
14.7
11.8
11.5
11
Margins (%, incl MVML)
15.3
13.3
13.5
13.5
Depreciation
4,139
5,761
7,259
8,774
Int. & Finance Charges
725
1,628
2,063
2,063
Other Income
4,342
4,658
5,280
5,902
Profit before Tax
35,196 36,059 41,651 44,288
Eff. Tax Rate (%)
24.4
20.2
25.5
27
Adj. Profit after Tax
25,732 27,924 31,030 32,331
Change (%)
27.3
8.5
11.1
4.2
Adj. PAT (incl MVML)
25,732 28,888 33,089 36,608
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Net Worth
Deferred tax
Loans
Capital Employed
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
2,936
2,945
2,945
2,945
103,134 121,585 144,494 167,400
3,544
5,271
5,271
5,271
23,211
31,738
31,738
31,738
129,889 158,595 181,504 204,410
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr.Assets, L & Adv.
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Sundry Creditors
Net Current Assets
29,207 40,808 48,549 54,775
9,859
10,000
10,000
10,000
89,256 103,105 105,950 110,950
67,076 85,082 123,381 146,682
16,942
23,584
29,348
33,039
12,603
19,884
26,087
29,368
6,146
11,884
27,510
39,464
27,061
24,077
34,782
39,158
65,509 80,399 106,376 117,998
39,527
47,962
65,217
73,421
1,566
4,683
17,005
28,685
129,889 158,595 181,504 204,410
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
568
705
781
859
Growth (%)
24.3
24.2
10.8
10
Auto (% of total)
62
67
70
71
FES (% of total)
38
33
30
29
Realizations (INR/car)
413,232 451,865 508,052 520,109
Growth (%)
1.5
9.3
12.4
2.4
69.3
73.8
74.8
75.3
FCF (CFO-Capex)
20,098
21,941
28,655
28,441
Net Debt
7,479
2,700 -15,772 -32,725
Subs contb. to Cons PAT(%) 10.5
5.8
11.9
25.6
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Fully diluted EPS
FD EPS (incl MVML)
Consolidated EPS
Cash EPS
DPS
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
43
43
48
50.9
175.6
11.5
30.2
46.7
48.3
51.2
57.2
206.4
12.5
29.9
51.8
55.3
62.7
65
245.3
14
31.1
54
61.2
82.2
69.8
284.2
16
34.1
Valuation (x)
P/E
Consolidated P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
17.4
15.6
14.7
12.7
1.9
4.3
1.5
15.5
14.6
13.1
11.7
1.4
3.6
1.7
13.5
11.9
11.5
9.6
1.1
3
1.9
12.2
9.1
10.7
8.9
1
2.6
2.1
RoE
RoCE
25
26.8
23
23.1
21.5
24.1
19.3
22.7
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
20
27
63
1.8
23
27
56
2
24
27
61
2.2
24
27
61
2.2
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
2011
31,311
2,370
4,139
-7,725
2,074
32,168
2012
31,946
4,658
5,761
-5,543
2,622
39,444
2013E
38,434
5,280
7,259
-10,621
3,304
43,655
2014E
40,449
5,902
8,774
-11,958
273
43,441
-12,070
-27,627
-39,697
-17,503
-13,848
-31,351
-15,000
-2,846
-17,846
-15,000
-5,000
-20,000
Change in Net Worth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
87
3,311
-1,016
-6,223
-3,842
-1,723
8,527
-1,628
-7,363
-2,186
1,528
0
-2,063
-8,247
-8,782
1,602
0
-2,063
-9,425
-9,885
-11,371
17,432
6,061
5,907
6,146
12,054
17,028
11,884
28,912
13,555
27,510
41,066
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Int./Dividends Received
Direct Taxes Paid
CF from Oper.Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Closing Balance
August 27 - 31, 2012
(INR Million)
111
Marico
Company description
Key challenges
Marico is market leader in branded Coconut Oil (~52%
market share) and has 23% share in other Hair Oils and
niche position in Edible Oils. The company's Beauty and
Wellness focus is emphasized through Kaya skin clinics
and products.

Marico derives ~25% of its revenues from overseas
operations with strong position in Bangladesh, and
presence in Middle East, South Africa, Egypt and South
Asia.
Marico recently acquired Paras in India and entered
personal products space.
Domestic business is on a strong footing with the
company posting a 16% domestic volume growth in
1QFY13 led by strong growth in the Hair Oil and
Edible Oil portfolio despite sharp price increases.
 The management expects sustainable volume
growth of 9-10% growth in its largest brand,
Parachute.
 Improvement in same clinic growth in Kaya, if
sustained, will enable faster break even.
 The growth momentum in Marico's key brands is
impressive; we like its aggressive strategy to grow
the value-added Hair Oils across geographies.

Stock info
MRCO IN
645
192
2.2
200 / 134
1 / 23 / 16
112
Trend in domestic volume growth and ability to
maintain and/or increase market share in valueadded Hair Oils.
 Movement in copra prices (~40% of RM).
 Revenue growth and profitability of international
business and recently acquired Paras.
 Performance of new domestic launches (Saffola
Oats, Saffola Arise, Parachute extensions)

Domestic volumes grew 16% – Parachute rigids up
18%, hair oils 25% and Saffola 12%.
 Gross margin expanded 660bp to 49.4% due to lower
copra prices; however, 300bp increase in ad spends
curtailed EBITDA margin expansion to 260bp.
 Kaya reported 12% SSS growth; 1QFY13 losses at
INR73m; product share increased to 25%.
 Management guided sustainable volume growth of
9-10% in coconut oils, 15-17% in Hair Oil and 15% in
Saffola.

Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Inflation in copra has always impacted margins and
profitability.
 Improving growth trends in international markets
of Middle East and Egypt and managing margin
pressures in Bangladesh are key challenges.
Jun-12
59.8
3.6
29.4
7.2
Mar-12
62.7
4.5
25.9
6.9
Jun-11
62.9
4.2
26.4
6.5
Y/E March
Jun-12
Change (%)
31.8
EBITDA
1,251
Change (%)
18.6
Reported PAT
850
Adjusted PAT
850
Change (%)
15.3
PAT Margin (%)
8.2
Parachute Rigid
10.0
Saffola
15.0
Hair Oils
32.0
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-12
9,745
25.6
1,167
17.7
12.0
783
783
9.4
8.0
Dec-12
10,578
29.4
1,217
22.1
11.5
841
841
21.0
8.0
Mar-12
9,177
22.9
1,100
38.8
12.0
697
714
-0.6
7.8
Jun-13
12,672
21.7
1,848
47.7
14.6
1,238
1,238
45.7
9.8
10.0
11.0
26.0
13.0
15.0
20.0
11.0
3.3
17.5
18.0
12.0
25.0
FY12
39,968
27.9
4,741
15.9
11.9
3,189
3,189
34.2
8.0
FY13E
47,179
18.0
6,386
34.7
13.5
4,361
4,361
36.8
9.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
Marico: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
31,283
Change (%)
17.6
Gross Profit
15,104
Margin (%)
48.3
Operating Expenses
11,006
EBITDA
4,098
Margin (%)
13.1
Depreciation
708
393
Other Income - Recurring
279
Profit before Taxes
3,275
Margin (%)
10.5
Current Tax (excl MAT Ent)
850
Tax Rate (%)
25.9
Minority Interest
-50
Profit after Taxes
2,918
Change (%)
20.9
Adjusted PAT
2,864
2012
39,968
27.8
18,981
47.5
14,240
4,741
11.9
725
424
429
4,021
10.1
782
19.5
-50
3,189
9.3
3,189
Balance Sheet
2013E
47,179
18.0
22,709
48.1
16,323
6,386
13.5
858
461
537
5,605
11.9
1,121
21.0
-66
4,361
36.8
4,361
2014E
54,963
16.5
26,688
48.6
18,915
7,772
14.1
975
406
594
6,985
12.7
1,397
21.0
-76
5,442
24.8
5,442
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
2011
614
8,540
9,155
7,718
17,092
2012
614
10,790
11,404
7,657
19,310
2013E
644
19,528
20,172
6,000
26,172
2014E
644
24,368
25,011
5,500
30,511
Gross Fixed Assets
Intangibles
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
6,177
1,438
-3,366
4,250
648
3,976
890
7,177
1,342
-4,085
5,019
1,234
3,955
2,956
8,477
8,647
-4,944
12,181
1,500
3,976
1,970
9,777
8,552
-5,919
12,410
1,500
3,976
5,006
Curr. Assets, L&A
Inventory
Account Receivables
Others
Net Current Assets
12,203
6,011
1,880
2,131
2,181
5,175
7,028
301
17,092
12,699
7,202
1,816
1,686
1,995
6,776
5,923
223
19,310
13,973
8,256
2,170
1,420
2,127
7,638
6,335
210
26,172
16,258
9,069
2,528
2,399
2,261
8,821
7,436
183
30,511
8.8
15.0
24.0
7.0
15.0
16.0
7.0
15.0
16.0
Growth (%)
Coconut Oil
Saffola
Hair Oil
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
7.0
16.0
23.0
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
4.7
5.8
14.9
0.7
13.9
5.2
6.1
18.6
0.7
13.5
6.8
8.1
31.3
0.8
11.1
8.5
10.0
38.8
0.8
9.5
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
12.7
0.3
36.4
30.8
3.0
25.1
10.2
0.4
27.9
23.3
2.6
19.5
6.0
0.4
22.4
19.0
2.2
15.4
4.9
0.4
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
31.9
29.7
28.0
30.5
21.6
29.7
21.8
30.6
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
22
1.8
17
2.1
17
1.8
17
1.8
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.2
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Int./Div. Received
Interest Paid
Direct Taxes Paid
(Incr)/Decr in WC
CF from Operations
(INR Million)
2011
4,098
279
-393
-850
-1,178
1,955
2012
4,741
429
-424
-782
659
4,623
2013E
6,386
537
-461
-1,121
-678
4,664
2014E
7,772
594
-406
-1,397
-122
6,442
(Incr)/Decr in FA
-1,842
-63
CF from Invest.
-1,905
-1,491
-2,067
-3,558
-8,871
987
-7,884
-1,205
-3,036
-4,241
(Incr)/Decr in Debt
Dividend Paid
Others
3,260
-472
-1,822
966
-61
-503
-946
-1,510
-1,657
-565
5,176
2,954
-500
-603
-119
-1,222
1,016
1,115
2,131
-445
2,131
1,686
-266
1,686
1,420
979
1,420
2,399
Incr/Decr of Cash
Closing Balance
113
Maruti Suzuki
Company description
Key challenges
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is the largest 4-wheeler passenger
vehicle manufacturer in India, with 1.2m units. It
dominates the small cars segment with ~48% market
share. It is also emerging as the global export hub of
small cars for Suzuki, with world strategic model A-Star
exclusively produced in India. It has recently launched
Ertiga to gain foothold in the fast-growing UV segment.
It has two plants are in Haryana – Gurgaon and Manesar.


Some of the key headwinds which impacted FY12
performance are peaking out. While reduction in
interest rates and stable fuel prices augur well for
demand, stable competition and soft commodity
prices would ease pressure on profitability.
 EBITDA margins have bottomed out in 2HCY11
impacted by adverse mix, forex and negative
operating leverage. Expect EBITDA margin to
improve 20bp from 7.1% in FY12 to 7.3% in FY13 and
8.8% (ex SPIL) in FY14, driven by price hikes, better
mix, operating leverage & higher localization.
 Maruti merged with Suzuki Powertrain India.
Although we expect the merger to be EPS neutral,
given aggressive depreciation policy of SPIL, it
would be cash EPS accretive by ~13%.
 With long term demand drivers and MSIL's
competitive advantage intact, coupled with peak
competitive intensity behind us, we expect MSIL's
market share to remain stable at ~36% of PV industry
over next 2-3 years.

Stock info
MSIL IN
289
1,177
6.1
1428 / 906
-5 / -8 / -6
114
Resumption of operation at Manesar plant, where
operations are disrupted since 18-Jul-2012 due to
violence at the plant.
 Reduction in interest rates to boost car demand.
 Demand pick-up for petrol-driven small cars.
 Increasing localization and exports to reduce forex
exposure over FY13-15.
1QFY13 realization improved ~12% QoQ (~21% YoY)
to INR355,839/unit, led by better mix, higher export
realizations and Ertiga CKD exports.
 EBITDA margin was flat QoQ (-230bp YoY) at 7.3%,
as benefit of higher realizations (140bp) was offset
by adverse Fx impact on RM (60bp) and royalty
(100bp), and negative operating leverage.
 It has not entered into any further hedges and now
has ~30% of USD/JPY exposure hedged for rest of
FY13, and 36% natural hedge on USD/INR.
 Lower other income diluted benefit of lower tax
(higher R&D), leading to in-line PAT at INR4.24b.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Being net importer, Maruti's earnings are highly
sensitive to JPY/INR movement. For every 5%
change in JPY/INR, Maruti's EBITDA margin changes
by ~100bp and EPS by ~13%.
 Maintaining cordial industrial relations, considering
multiple disruptions at Manesar plant since Jun-11,
including recent episode of violence.
Jun-12
54.2
16.4
20.4
9.0
Mar-12
54.2
15.8
21.5
8.5
Jun-11
54.2
18.0
18.8
9.0
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Op. Revenues 84,541
Change (%)
1.7
EBITDA
8,104
EBITDA Margins (%) 9.6
Change (%)
-5.5
Adjusted PAT
5,492
Change (%)
7.2
Total Vols ('000 nos) 281
Change (%)
-0.6
Realiz. (INR/car) 293,279
Change (%)
3.2
RM Cost (% of Sales) 78.0
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
78,316
-14.4
4,942
6.3
-48.5
2,404
-59.8
Dec-11
77,316
-18.6
4,034
5.2
-55.3
2,056
-63.6
Mar-12
117,270
17.2
8,585
7.3
-15.3
6,398
1.4
Jun-12
107,782
27.5
7,863
7.3
-3.0
4,238
-22.8
FY12
355,871
-2.8
25,129
7.1
-30.9
16,351
-29.2
FY13E
436,687
22.7
31,944
7.3
27.1
19,906
21.7
252
-19.6
298,741
4.8
78.6
239
-27.6
314,247
12.0
79.1
360
4.9
318,770
11.7
79.6
296
5.1
355,839
21.3
77.8
1,134
-10.8
306,131
7.7
78.9
1,217
7.4
350,367
14.5
78.4
August 27 - 31, 2012
Maruti Suzuki: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Op. Income
Change (%)
Total Cost
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Effective tax Rate (%)
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
2012 2013E* 2014E*
369,199 355,871 436,687 515,512
24.6
-3.6
22.7
18.1
333,363 330,742 398,149 462,561
35,837 25,129 38,539 52,950
9.7
7.1
8.8
10.3
10,135
11,384
17,925
21,032
244
552
1,186
1,254
5,665
8,269
8,224
8,550
31,088 21,462 27,652 39,215
26.4
23.8
20
22
23,101 16,351 22,121 30,587
-7.8
-29.2
35.3
38.3
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
(INR Million)
2011
2012 2013E * 2014E *
1,445
1,445
1,510
1,510
138,675 151,873 191,860 218,559
3,093
11,749
17,910
17,910
1,644
3,023
3,023
3,023
143,412 166,646 212,793 239,492
55,294
14,286
51,067
61,321
20,000
61,473
99,730 108,698
15,000
15,000
61,473
61,473
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
EPS Growth (%)
Consol EPS
Cash EPS
DPS
Div. payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E*
2014E*
79.9
-7.8
82.4
115
479.8
7.5
11
56.6
-29.2
58.2
96
525.7
7.5
13.3
73.2
29.4
74.2
132.6
635.1
10
13.7
101.3
38.3
102.6
170.9
723.5
11
10.9
Valuation (x)
Consol. P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
14.4
10.3
7.5
0.7
2.5
0.6
20.3
12.3
10.7
0.8
2.3
0.6
15.9
8.9
7.1
0.6
1.9
0.8
11.5
6.9
4.8
0.5
1.6
0.9
RoE
RoCE
16.5
22.1
10.8
13.2
11.5
13.6
14
16.9
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
Y/E March
Int./Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Oper.Activity
2011
26,437
3,595
10,135
-10,240
4,171
34,098
2012
13,745
8,269
11,384
-3,731
-1,810
27,857
2013E*
20,614
8,224
17,925
-5,530
1,411
42,643
2014E*
31,918
8,550
21,032
-8,627
2,762
55,636
(Inc)/Dec in FA
-24,114
21,253
-2,861
-23,125
-10,406
-33,531
-51,334
0
-51,334
-30,000
0
-30,000
Change in Networth
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
0
-5,123
-278
-1,733
-7,134
-986
8,656
-552
-2,167
4,951
20,886
6,161
-1,186
-3,021
22,840
-565
0
-1,254
-3,323
-5,142
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Op. Balance
Closing Balance
24,103
982
25,085
-723
25,085
24,362
14,149
24,362
38,511
20,494
38,511
59,004
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Curr.Assets, Loans
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash/ Bank Bal.
Sundry Creditors
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
63,563 80,227 99,338 125,662
14,150
17,965
19,142
22,598
8,933
9,377
13,160
15,536
25,085
24,362
38,511
59,004
40,798
56,376
62,748
71,341
35,540
49,391
54,177
61,088
22,765 23,851 36,590 54,321
143,412 166,646 212,793 239,492
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Volumes (‘000 units)
1271
1133.7
1217
1412.1
Growth (%)
24.8
-10.8
7.4
16
Realizations (INR/car)
290,478 313,904 358,810 365,066
Growth (%)
-0.1
8.1
14.3
1.7
78.1
78.9
76.9
76.2
JPY/INR
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.65
FCF (CFO-Capex)
9,984
4,732
-8,691 25,636
Net Debt
-69,098 -68,503 -80,441 -100,934
‘* including SPIL (Suzuki Powertrain India Ltd)
August 27 - 31, 2012
(INR Million)
115
McLeod Russel
Company description
Key challenges
Mcleod Russel is the world's largest tea producer and
plantation company. It produces approximately 100m
kg of high quality tea a year from its tea estates in Assam,
West Bengal, Vietnam, Uganda and Rwanda.

As India's largest tea exporter, it maintains strong
connections with buyers in Europe, the Middle East and
North America. Modern blending facility provides its
clients with both unique as well as bespoke bulk
blended teas.
Government denying acquisitions of tea gardens in
India, is a growth challenge for the company.
 Managing labor costs is a key operational challenge.
Production during the peak season Q2 and Q3.
 Crop loss in North India coupled with growth in
consumption resulting in higher tea prices.
 Rationalization of labor costs can increase
profitability.

Increasing consumption of tea, particularly in
developing countries with increasing per capita
income, along with constrained supply of land to
grow tea, should result in a secular upward trend in
tea prices.
 Due to adverse weather conditions, even near-term
tea prices are expected to remain high, thus
increasing McLeod's profitability.

Stock info
MCLR IN
109
323
0.6
345 / 166
-2 / 56 / 37
116
Tea realizations for the company improved by INR
33/kg (22%) to INR181/kg in 1QFY13 due to India
losing 2.7m kg of tea production in May and June.
 McLeod Russel itself lost production loss of 2.7m kg
in 1QFY13.
 Sales volume for the company declined from 9.7m
kg in 1QFY12 to 7.9m kg in Q1FY13.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
45.7
5.4
33.4
15.4
Mar-12
45.7
5.9
32.9
15.6
Jun-11
45.7
7.1
32.0
15.2
Y/E March
Operating Income
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
PAT Margin (%)
(INR Million)
Jun-11
1,453
18.6
537
76.8
37.0
373
373
98.0
25.7
Sep-11
4,057
12.3
2,371
11.5
58.4
2,232
2,232
12.3
55.0
Dec-11
3,913
6.7
1,383
-6.7
35.4
1,171
1,171
-13.5
29.9
Mar-12
2,526
13.6
-1,030
82.0
-40.8
-1,574
-1,477
20.2
-58.5
Jun-12
1,435
-1.2
355
-34.0
24.7
193
193
-48.3
13.5
FY12
11,948
11.3
3,261
-2.5
27.3
2,203
2,299
0.0
19.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
McLeod Russel: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Net Sales
Other Income
Stock Adjustments
Total Income
Total Expenditure
Operating Profit
Interest
Gross Profit
Depreciation
Profit Before Tax
Tax
Fringe Benefit Tax
Net Profit
Minority Interest (after tax)
P/L of Associate Company
PAT after MI & P/L Asso.Co.
Extraordinary Items
Adjusted PAT
2009
8,265
345
45
8,655
6,486
2,170
831
1,339
327
1,012
104
22
856
-22
835
-8
843
(INR Million)
2010
11,062
349
-19
11,392
7,722
3,670
296
3,374
323
3,051
664
2,337
-5
-33
2,309
-10
2,319
2011
12,692
323
103
13,118
9,191
3,927
417
3,510
382
3,128
608
2,492
-0
-28
2,465
14
2,450
Y/E March
2009
Share Capital
547
Reserves Total
11,424
Total Shareholders Funds 11,971
Minority Interest
0
Secured Loans
3,873
Unsecured Loans
300
Total Debt
4,173
Total Liabilities
16,144
2010
547
13,154
13,701
0
3,880
140
4,021
17,722
2011
547
14,618
15,165
0
1,406
0
1,406
17,286
2012
547
16,919
17,467
117
940
0
940
19,242
Gross Block
20,578
Less: Accumulated Dep
4,156
Less: Impairment of Assets
0
Net Block
16,422
168
Investments
198
Inventories
694
Sundry Debtors
256
Cash and Bank
388
Loans and Advances
1,410
2,748
Current Liabilities
1,377
Provisions
1,490
2,867
Net Current Assets
-119
Deferred Tax Assets
189
714
Net Deferred Tax
-525
Other Assets
0
Total Assets
16,144
22,710
5,075
0
17,635
166
350
800
273
526
2,015
3,614
1,434
1,892
3,327
287
168
884
-716
0
17,722
22,850
4,983
402
17,465
203
336
968
204
310
1,250
2,731
3,217
1,064
4,282
-1,550
108
831
-723
1,555
17,286
24,520
5,519
402
18,600
354
190
1,248
297
334
1,696
3,575
3,391
1,209
4,601
-1,026
117
887
-769
1,894
19,242
August 27 - 31, 2012
2012
14,453
411
73
14,937
10,719
4,218
567
3,650
370
3,281
329
2,943
30
-33
2,879
-54
2,934
(INR Million)
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS (INR)
Book Value (INR)
Key Ratios
Debt-Equity Ratio
Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio
Current Ratio
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Assets
Inventory
Debtors
PBIDTM (%)
PBITM (%)
PBDTM (%)
CPM (%)
APATM (%)
ROCE (%)
RONW (%)
Payout (%)
2009
7.3
57.0
2010
20.4
73.2
2011
21.7
87.0
2012
25.3
108.4
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.6
14.6
30.8
2.2
26.2
22.2
16.2
14.3
10.3
17.8
14.4
26.7
0.7
14.8
41.8
11.3
33.2
30.3
30.5
24.1
21.1
29.8
32.8
19.3
0.7
14.4
53.3
8.5
30.9
27.9
27.7
22.6
19.6
29.9
28.4
22.8
0.8
13.1
57.8
6.8
29.2
26.6
25.3
22.9
20.4
30.4
27.4
23.5
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
2009
197
Net Cash from Operating
Activities
2,027
Net Cash Used in
-653
Net Cash Used in Financing
Activities
-1,184
Net Inc/(Dec) in Cash and
Cash Equivalent
191
at End of the year
388
(INR Million)
2010
2011
2012
388
348
223
2,867
2,273
2,636
-2,370
-564
-968
-359
-1,834
-1,557
138
-125
111
526
223
334
117
MCX
Company description
Key challenges
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) is a stateof-the-art electronic commodity futures exchange with
permanent recognition from the Government of India
to facilitate online trading, and clearing and settlement
operations for commodity futures.

Having started operations in November 2003, today,
MCX holds a market share of over 86% (as on March 31,
2012) of Indian commodity futures market. It has more
than 2,170 registered members operating through over
346,000 spread over 1,577 cities and towns. MCX was
the 3rd largest commodity exchange in the world, in
terms of the number of contracts traded in CY2011,
largest in Silver and Gold, second largest in natural gas.
MCX offers 49 commodities across various segments
such as bullion, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, energy,
and a number of agri-commodities on its platform.
Commodities exchange in India is a nascent
industry, less than a decade old; total value of
commodity futures traded has grown at 51% CAGR
over FY09-12.
 MCX has a near monopolistic market share and
competitive edge lent by strong technological
backbone, which is supplied by parent FTIL, is hard
to emulate.
 Passage of FCRA bill will facilitate a surge in
volumes.
 Potential value unlocking from MCX-SX.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
MCX IN
51
1,153
1.1
1,426 / 838
-/-/-
118
FCRA Bill was postponed to yet another parliament
session in the future, after increased hopes of the
bill being tabled for discussion in the monsoon
session.
 MCX-SX was cleared to become a full-fledged stock
exchange.

MCX reported 1QFY13 revenue at INR1.23b, +5.2%
YoY. EBIT was INR689m, +5.3% YoY. EBIT margin was
56%, +10bp YoY and +170bp QoQ. PAT was INR647m,
+4.4% YoY.
 In 1QFY13, total transacted volume on the exchange
was INR36.4t, up 8.4% YoY and 0.6% QoQ. In FY12,
the volumes had jumped in 2Q, increasing by 42%
QoQ, before cooling off in subsequent quarters.
However, at least in the month of July, volumes have
been softer, implying possible YoY decline in traded
volume, and hence, transaction revenue in 2QFY13.
Stock info
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others


Low volatility in commodity prices hurt the volumes
on the exchange, which has been the case in the last
couple of quarters. Given high operating leverage,
it impacts bottom-line harder.
 Upward revision in share of transaction fees charged
by FTIL for technical services will be negative for
margins.
Jun-12
26.0
23.5
31.6
18.9
Mar-12
26.0
22.4
33.3
18.3
Jun-11
-
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Sales
1,169
Changes - QoQ (%) 10.4
EBITDA
718
Changes (%)
21.0
EBIDTA Margin (%) 61.4
Reported PAT
620
Adjusted PAT
620
Changes QoQ (%) 12.9
PAT Margin (%)
53.1
Volumes (INR b) 33,583
Chg. in Vol. QoQ (%) 13.8
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
1,558
33.3
1,068
48.7
68.5
894
894
44.2
57.4
Dec-11
1,296
(16.9)
820
(23.2)
63.3
688
688
(23.1)
53.1
Mar-12
1,239
(4.4)
740
(9.7)
59.7
660
770
11.9
62.2
Jun-12
1,230
(0.7)
756
2.1
61.5
647
647
(15.9)
52.6
FY11
3,689
28.4
1,918
35.5
52.0
1,728
1,728
(20.3)
46.8
FY12
5,262
42.6
3,346
74.4
63.6
2,862
2,862
65.6
54.4
47,808
42.4
38,415
-19.6
36,164
-5.9
36,395
0.6
98,415
53.9
155,971
58.5
August 27 - 31, 2012
MCX: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Net Sales
Other Income
Total Income
(INR Million)
2008
1,737
1,005
2,742
2009
2,125
1,534
3,659
2010
2,874
2,062
4,936
2011
3,689
784
4,473
Power & Fuel Cost
14
Employee Cost
253
Other Manufact. Expenses
47
Selling & Admin. Expenses 868
Miscellaneous Expenses
73
Total Expenditure
1,254
33
231
144
822
125
1,355
34
203
129
970
123
1,458
25
254
132
1,248
113
1,772
Operating Profit
Interest
Gross Profit
Depreciation
Profit Before Tax
Tax
Fringe Benefit tax
Deferred Tax
Reported Net Profit
Extraordinary Items
Adjusted Net Profit
2,304
2
2,302
200
2,102
453
6
63
1,580
688
893
3,477
0
3,477
247
3,230
1,004
19
2,206
1,006
1,201
2,701
0
2,701
247
2,455
706
21
1,728
30
1,698
1,488
0
1,488
120
1,368
315
11
(11)
1,053
422
631
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves Total
Total Liabilities
Gross Block
Less : Accumulated Dep.
Net Block
Investments
Sundry Debtors
Cash and Bank
Loans and Advances
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Deferred Tax Assets
Net Deferred Tax
Total Assets
August 27 - 31, 2012
(INR Million)
2008
392
3,191
3,587
3,587
2009
408
4,534
4,942
4,942
2010
408
6,562
6,970
6,970
2011
510
7,975
8,485
8,485
1,292
325
967
505
5,249
148
1,047
588
1,783
4,831
67
4,897
(3,114)
20
(20)
3,587
2,595
509
2,086
3
4,698
269
4,058
550
4,877
6,366
269
6,635
(1,758)
36
124
(87)
4,942
2,679
754
1,925
3
6,172
304
2,700
1,186
4,190
4,916
298
5,214
(1,024)
51
157
(106)
6,970
2,917
964
1,953
1
8,236
489
3,310
1,010
4,808
6,017
368
6,385
(1,577)
36
163
(127)
8,485
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS (INR)
Book Value (INR)
2008
12.9
45.7
2009
18.9
60.6
2010
26.6
85.4
2011
33.1
166.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.5
11.1
4,099
1.1
10.2
663
1.1
10.0
4,395
1.3
9.3
12,274
PBIDTM (%)
PBITM (%)
PBDTM (%)
CPM (%)
APATM (%)
54.1
47.2
54.1
43.2
36.3
65.6
56.2
65.5
51.3
41.9
69.8
61.2
69.8
50.4
41.8
73.2
66.5
73.2
53.5
46.9
RoCE (%)
RoNW (%)
Payout (%)
25.2
19.4
23.2
28.0
20.9
13.3
29.5
20.2
9.4
31.8
22.4
15.1
2009
2010
2011
167
2,853
-1,371
116
1,764
-912
-129
-239
484
2,700
-2,328
-238
1,598
-1,280
134
1,764
484
618
Key Ratios
Current Ratio
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Assets
Debtors
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Cash Flow Summary
Cash and Cash Equivalents at
Beginning of the year
Net Cash from Operating Activities
Net Cash in Investing Activities
Net Cash in Financing Activities
Net Inc/(Dec) in Cash and Cash
Equivalent
at End of the year
(INR Million)
119
Motherson Sumi Systems
Company description
Key challenges
Motherson Sumi Systems Limited (MSSL) is the flagship
company of the Samvardhana Motherson Group and is
a joint venture between Samvardhana Motherson
Group & Sumitomo Wiring Systems (Japan). It is a full
system solution provider for the automotive industry.
Post acquisition of VisioCorp and Peguform, it has a
very strong foothold in global automotive supply chain.
SMR (subsidiary) is one of the largest manufacturers of
exterior rearview mirrors in the world, whereas
Peguform is one of the largest manufacturers of IP
modules, door trims and bumpers in Europe.

Post Peguform acquisition, MSSL is one of the top
suppliers to passenger car OEMs globally.
 MSSL's revenue per car is set to increase both in
India and abroad due to (1) rising contribution of
high-price rear-view mirrors in passenger cars in
India, (2) becoming a full system supplier after
acquisition of Peguform, and (3) increase in
requirement of wiring harnesses due to rising
features in a car.
 Strong order book for Samvardhana Motherson
Peguform (SMP) and Samvardhana Motherson
Reflectec (SMR) would be key performance driver.
 Ramp-up in recently added capacities and
commissioning of ongoing expansion would drive
revenues and profitability. Synergies of Peguform
acquisition would further drive margins.

SMR's Hungary plant expected to ramp up
significantly from 3QFY13.
 Equity fund raising to reduce net debt of INR44b.






Consolidated Net sales stood at INR63.9b (+178%
YoY, -0.6% QoQ). Standalone revenues at INR10.6b
(+41% YoY, -12 % QoQ); SMR revenues at EUR232m
(+15% YoY, -3.5% QoQ) and SMP revenues at
EUR474m (-7.1% QoQ).
Consolidated EBITDA (adjusted for forex) was
INR4.5b. EBITDA margin was 7.1% (-100bp YoY, +40bp
QoQ), with standalone EBITDA margin at 16.6%, SMR
at 5.8% and SMPL at 4.2%.
Adj PAT was INR2.1b (+287% YoY, +107% QoQ).
Expect capex of INR7-8b for FY13.
MSSL is targeting revenues of USD5b (v/s USD3b in
FY12), with ~70% revenues from global customers
and 40% RoCE and dividend payout.
Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
MSS IN
392
185
1.3
217 / 129
4 / 4 / -19
120
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Maintaining growth momentum in slowing global
car volumes, especially since over 75% of revenues
comes from global customers.
 Successfully integrating and deriving synergies from
Peguform acquisition.
Jun-12
65.6
9.9
12.4
12.2
Mar-12
65.2
10.2
12.1
12.5
Jun-11
65.2
9.0
11.6
14.2
Y/E March
Net Sales
Changes (%)
EBITDA
Changes (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Changes YoY (%)
PAT Margin (%)
(INR Million)
Jun-11
22,716
22.2
1,700
21.5
7.5
673
653
9.6
2.87
Sep-11
22,901
19.5
792
-52.6
3.5
24
243
-71.8
1.06
Dec-11
37,723
81.1
237
-86.8
0.6
-1,020
42
-96.0
0.11
Mar-12
63,682
174.8
4,631
93.0
7.3
2,287
1,929
38.9
3.03
Jun-12
62,772
176.3
1,436
-15.5
2.3
-422
81
-87.5
0.13
FY12
147,022
79.8
7,360
1.2
5.0
1,964
2,867
-26.6
1.95
August 27 - 31, 2012
Motherson Sumi Systems: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Interest
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT
Eff. Tax rate (%)
Adjusted Net Profit
(INR Million)
2009
25,956
2,393
9.2
383
1,091
1,640
2,559
13.6
1,752
2010
67,022
3,269
4.9
635
2,601
3,394
3,428
31.8
2,477
2011
81,756
6,930
8.5
576
2,465
2,423
6,312
29.8
3,838
Y/E March
Share Capital
Minority Interest
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
2009
356
7,831
2,000
8,951
18,782
2010
375
11,649
2,027
8,179
21,855
2011
388
16,087
2,276
12,635
30,998
2012
388
18,717
5,027
43,921
67,665
Net Block
CWIP
Investments
13,487
1,764
547
14,548
1,808
471
17,657
4,601
453
46,922
4,458
938
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventories
6,112
Sundry Debtors
6,132
Cash and Bank
2,766
Loans and Advances
3,825
18,835
6,752
7,688
3,431
3,101
20,971
Less : Current Liabilities and Provisions
Current Liabilities
12,385
13,060
Total Current Liabilities 15,971
15,921
Net Current Assets
2,865
5,051
Net Deferred Tax
-145
-40
Total Assets
18,782
21,855
August 27 - 31, 2012
2012
147,766
8,925
6.0
1,649
3,796
1,445
4,925
43.7
2,596
10,376
9,557
3,565
4,433
27,930
16,291
19,633
8,296
-10
30,998
22,496
30,127
4,557
8,765
65,945
47,879
51,391
14,554
-602
67,665
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS (INR)
EPS growth (%)
Cash EPS (INR)
Book Value (INR)
DPS (INR)
Payout (%)
2009
4.9
3.3
8.0
22.0
1.35
22.6
2010
6.6
34.2
13.6
31.1
1.75
30.5
2011
9.9
49.8
16.3
41.5
2.75
25.3
2012
6.7
-32.5
16.5
48.2
2.25
34.0
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
36.1
22.3
28.8
2.7
8.1
0.8
26.9
13.1
21.7
1.1
5.7
1.0
18.0
10.9
11.2
0.9
4.3
1.5
26.6
10.8
12.0
0.7
3.7
1.3
1.6
85.9
86.2
174.2
3.9
36.8
41.9
71.1
4.0
46.3
42.7
72.7
3.1
55.6
74.4
118.3
20.1
26.6
20.0
25.4
26.1
27.7
13.3
14.9
1.1
0.7
0.8
2.3
Y/E March
2009
954
Net Cash from Operating
Activities
2,499
Net Cash Used in
-3,662
Net Cash Used in
Financing Activities
2,948
Net Inc/(Dec) in Cash
and Cash Equivalent
1,785
at End of the year
2,738
2010
2011
2012
2,766
3,431
3,480
4,083
4,193
5,887
-3,729
-8,055
-20,698
312
4,010
13,800
666
148
-1,011
3,432
3,578
4,426
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Assets
Inventory (days)
Debtors (days)
Creditors (days)
RoCE (%)
RoNW (%)
Leverage Ratio
Debt-Equity Ratio
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
121
NTPC
Company description
NTPC is the largest power generator in India contributing
to ~30% of the country's total generation. It has an
installed capacity of 39.2GW, and it aims to add 14GW in
the 12th Plan (FY13-17) v/s ~9GW added in 11th Plan
period. It has also ventured into related areas like coal
mining, distribution, transmission, and gas exploration.
NTPC plans to commission 14GW of capacity in 12th
plan (11.9GW remaining). Similar capacity is planned
for 13th plan at 14.7GW, of which 4.8GW is under
construction and balance under project award. This
provides high visibility of earnings growth.
 NTPC's PAF (Plant Availability Factor) has been
consistently above 90%, while lower demand has
impacted PLF. Base RoE recovery is linked to PAF
and is thus assured.
 Strong operating cash flow and cash equivalent of
INR178b (FY12) would support its expansion plans
and thus, growth will not be equity dilutive.
 Higher generation growth led by improved domestic
coal supply and demand by DISCOMs would drive
core earnings, incentives.

Key challenges
NTPC has witnessed meaningful delays in capacity
commissioning/project awards in past. Continued
Stock info
NTPC IN
8,245
168
24.9
190 / 139
3 / -7 / -9
122
Restoration of 3 coal blocks with 2b tons of coal
reserves by Ministry of Coal. NTPC has presented
its case with the progress report of mines.
 News flow on equipment order award for
supercritical units (800MW) is to be watched.
 Generation incentives contribute 20-25% to NTPC
earnings thus generation growth is crucial.
NTPC's 1QFY13 performance was robust led by
higher generation and partly helped by other
operating/financial other income. It reported
highest generation growth since 1QFY10 at 8% YoY.
 NTPC reiterated capacity addition target of 4.2GW
in FY13 and 14GW in 12th Plan.
 In order to secure payments from SEBs post October
2016, NTPC has signed supplementary agreements
with them for first right on escrow account/
receivables.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others


delays could limit upfront earnings growth.
 Lower demand/backdown from SEBs may impact
the company's generation incentives.
 Delay in restoration of coal mine may impact NTPC's
diversification policy of coal sourcing.
Jun-12
84.5
7.8
4.0
3.7
Mar-12
84.5
7.7
4.1
3.8
Jun-11
84.5
8.3
3.6
3.6
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
9.5
EBITDA
28,662
Change (%)
2.2
Reported PAT
20,758
Adjusted PAT
19,015
Change (%)
13.0
PAT Margin (%)
13.4
Instal. Cap. (MW) 34,854
Qtly. addition (MW) 660
Coal plant PAF (%) 89.9
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
153,775
4.2
32,387
-2.2
21.1
24,240
14,797
-8.4
9.6
Dec-11
153,333
13.6
28,564
-22.1
18.6
21,304
20,692
-1.1
13.5
Mar-12
162,639
4.8
41,127
12.9
25.3
25,934
22,958
-10.6
14.1
Jun-12
159,600
12.6
36,306
26.7
22.7
24,987
23,888
25.6
15.0
FY12
611,462
7.8
131,437
-2.1
21.5
92,238
79,720
0.2
13.0
FY13E
727,246
18.9
157,102
19.5
21.6
92,261
91,162
14.4
12.5
34,854
83.4
36,014
1,160
85.3
37,014
1,000
94.7
39,174
2,160
88.4
37,014
2,820
88.4
41,174
4,160
88.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
NTPC: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Gross Sales
Net Sales
Change (%)
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income - Rec.
Profit before Tax
Current Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
EO Exp/(Inc)
Adjusted PAT
Margin (%)
(INR Million)
2011
548,740
548,740
18.5
422,892
77.1
125,848
22.9
24,857
100,992
21,491
40,995
120,496
29,470
24.5
91,025
11,445
79,580
14.5
2012
611,462
611,462
11.4
480,025
78.5
140,511
23.0
27,904
112,607
17,116
27,784
123,275
31,024
25.2
92,236
9,018
83,218
13.6
2013E
717,532
717,532
17.3
559,540
78.0
162,992
22.7
35,922
127,070
23,060
25,598
129,608
31,628
24.4
97,978
0
97,978
13.7
2014E
797,084
797,084
11.1
595,564
74.7
206,770
25.9
44,807
161,963
33,365
27,627
156,225
38,964
24.9
117,259
0
117,259
14.7
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
82,455
82,455
82,455
82,455
596,468 650,457 705,170 770,648
678,923 732,912 787,624 853,103
3028
6369
6369
6369
439,803 483,558 629,148 695,661
1,121,754 1,222,839 1,423,141 1,555,133
727,552
335,192
392,360
382,706
123,448
815,680 1,120,924 1,286,514
363,096 399,018 443,825
452,584 721,905 842,689
418,278 363,154 355,496
95,839 106,008 96,561
Curr. Assets
353,968 441,677 447,913 448,892
Inventory
36,391
37,029
49,146
54,595
Account Receivables
79,243
58,325 117,951 120,109
Cash and Bank Balance 161,853 177,686 196,098 182,034
Others
76,481 168,637 84,718
92,155
130,729 178,423 215,839 188,506
Net Current Assets
223,239 263,253 232,074 260,386
Appl. of Funds
1,121,753 1,229,955 1,423,141 1,555,133
Y/E March
- Own
-JV
Coal Plant PAF (%)
Coal Plant PLF (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
34,194
30,830
3,364
92
88
2012
37,014
32,650
4,364
90
85
2013E
41,174
36,310
4,864
89
85
2014E
44,384
38,270
6,114
89
85
Ratios
Y/E March
EPS (Adjusted)
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
9.7
12.7
82.3
4.2
44.2
2012
10.1
13.5
88.9
4.0
41.3
2013E
11.9
16.2
95.5
4.5
44.2
2014E
14.2
19.7
103.5
5.4
44.2
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
17.4
13.3
2.0
3.0
12.6
2.5
16.7
12.5
1.9
2.8
11.6
2.4
14.1
10.3
1.8
2.5
10.9
2.7
11.8
8.5
1.6
2.4
9.0
3.2
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
12.2
13.3
11.8
11.9
12.9
11.5
14.3
12.7
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
0.8
0.5
53
24
0.7
0.5
35
22
0.6
0.5
60
25
0.6
0.5
55
25
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Debt/Equity
2.7
4.7
0.6
2.5
6.6
0.7
2.1
5.5
0.8
2.4
4.9
0.8
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Interest
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
CF fr. Oper. incl EO Exp.
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
120,496 123,275 129,608 156,225
21,491
17,116
23,060
33,365
24,857
27,904
35,922
44,807
-29,470 -31,024 -31,628 -38,964
-5,405 -24,181 49,592 -42,377
131,969 113,089 206,555 153,056
131,969 113,089 206,555 153,056
(inc)/dec in FA
-120,714 -123,700 -250,120 -157,933
(Pur)/Sale of Investments -24,623 -27,609 10,169
-9,447
CF from Investments
-145,336 -151,310 -239,951 -167,379
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Dividend Paid
Interest
Others
53,912
-29,438
-21,491
27,642
30,625
44,491 152,774
-27,886 -31,687
-17,116 -23,060
6,891
-1,464
6,380
96,564
66,513
-37,923
-33,365
5,227
451
Inc/Dec of Cash
17,258 -31,840 63,168 -13,872
Add: Beginning Balance 144,595 161,853 177,686 196,098
Closing Balance
161,853 130,012 240,854 182,226
123
ONGC
Company description
of the discovered fields.
ONGC, a Fortune 500 company, is India's largest
exploration and production (E&P) player. With over 300
discoveries, it has established in-place reserves of
6.9btoe (billion tons of oil equivalent), with ultimate
reserves of 2.4btoe. It currently accounts for ~68% of
India's domestic oil and gas production. Through its
100% subsidiary ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL), it has
equity investments in E&P blocks in 16 countries.
Downstream presence is marked through its subsidiary,
MRPL (71.6% stake).
Await clarity on subsidy rationalization; gas price
hike a long term trigger: Rationalization of subsidy
would result in increased earnings predictability for
the company leading to higher valuation multiples.
 Large NELP acreage to provide long-term growth:
ONGC has more than 50% of allotted NELP
exploration acreage. Of this, around 66% acreage is
in high potential deep water. As bulk of this acreage
is yet to be explored, we believe there is huge
potential for hydrocarbon discoveries.
 Increased capex, IOR/EOR projects to provide
production growth: Impressive RRR>1 for last 6
years. Production is likely to be flat in short-term,
however we expect volume growth in long term
led by IOR/EOR, marginal fields and monetization

Stock info
ONGC IN
8,555
282
43.2
304 / 240
-4 / 3 / -3
124
Ad-hocism in subsidy sharing.
 Acquisition of overseas assets at high valuations
against stiff competition from China.
 Slowdown in deep water development due to
technological barriers.

Clarity on production from Sudan and Syria for OVL.
 Subsidy rationalization by the government and decontrolling of diesel prices.
 Discoveries in its NELP blocks and acquisition of
overseas assets.

In 1QFY13, ONGC subsidy share was INR123.4b and
its share in upstream stood at 82% (v/s 80.8% in
FY12). We model FY13/14 upstream subsidy sharing
at 40% and ONGC share at 81%.
 Net realization was at USD46.6/bbl, up 5% QoQ but
down 3% YoY.
 ONGC has made a demand to MoPNG for calculating
its share of subsidy-based crude production rather
than on crude plus condensate.
 ONGC expects incremental production of 24kbpd
by 2015 from its new oil pool discovery in D-1 field.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Key challenges
Jun-12
69.2
11.7
5.3
13.8
Mar-12
69.2
11.6
5.4
13.8
Jun-11
74.1
7.4
4.9
13.6
Y/E March
Jun-11
Operating Income
162
Change (%)
18.5
EBITDA
93
Change (%)
15.3
Reported PAT
41
Adjusted PAT
41
Change (%)
11.8
PAT Margin (%)
25.3
Key Metrics (USD/bbl)
Fx rate (INR/USD)
45
Gross Oil Realiz.
121
Subsidy
73
Net Oil Realization
48
Subsidy (INR b)
120
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Billion)
Sep-11
226
24.3
142
27.7
62.6
86
86
60.4
38.2
Dec-11
181
-2.5
107
-5.8
58.8
67
46
-20.2
25.6
Mar-12
188
22.2
111
52.3
58.8
56
56
119.4
30.0
Jun-12
201
24.0
110
19.1
55.0
61
61
48.4
30.3
FY12
758
15.1
451
19.8
59.6
251
230
32.0
30.4
FY13E
804
6.2
423
-6.3
52.6
210
210
-8.6
26.2
46
117
33
84
57
51
112
67
45
125
50
122
77
44
142
54
110
63
47
123
48
118
63
55
445
54
108
60
47
477
August 27 - 31, 2012
ONGC: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Growth (%)
Government Levies
Other Operating Costs
Total Operating Costs
EBIDTA
% of Net Sales
Debt Charges
D,D&A
Other Income
Prov, wrtie-offs prior period
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Adj PAT
Growth (%)
Minority int., assoc profits
Net Profit post MI
(INR Billion)
2011
1,176
15.6
192
483
676
500
42.5
4
206
69
16
343
115
33.5
228
213
8.1
4
210
2012
1,464
24.4
231
655
886
578
39.5
4
234
58
-31
428
144
33.6
284
263
23.3
3
260
Balance Sheet
2013E
1,585
8.3
273
785
1,057
527.2
33.3
8
226
65
0
358
113
31.5
245
245
-6.9
3
242
2014E
1,684
6.3
305
765
1071
614
36.4
8
255
63
0
413
135
32.6
279
279
13.8
4
275
(INR Billion)
Y/E March
2011
Share Capital
43
Reserves
1,103
Net Worth
1,145
Debt
63
Deferred Tax
112
Liability for Abandonment
199
Capital Employed
1,539
2012
43
1,287
1,329
100
115
202
1,769
2013E
43
1,426
1,469
101
123
205
1,923
2014E
43
1,601
1,644
101
132
208
2,115
Net Fixed Assets
542
Producing Properties
572
Pre-producing Properties
102
Investments (incl. mkt. sec.) 34
Goodwill
90
287
Inventories
86
Sundry debtors
98
Loans & Advances
110
Total Curr. Assets
590
Current Liabilities
340
Provisions
51
Total current liabilities
391
Net Curr. Assets
198
Total assets
1,539
626
557
113
33
85
415
84
103
116
727
302
69
370
356
1,769
729
588
144
33
80
417
85
88
122
720
301
69
370
350
1,923
787
621
168
33
75
492
94
102
128
825
324
69
393
432
2,115
47.9
445
26.9
25.5
55
53.5
477
27.7
26.5
47
52.0
353
29.6
26.1
60
Subsidy (INRb)
Oil production (mmt)
Gas production (bcm)
Net realization (USD/bbl)
August 27 - 31, 2012
45.7
249
27.3
25.3
54
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. div tax)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
24.5
49.6
133.9
9.0
56.2
30.4
58.2
155.4
9.8
37.4
28.3
55.5
171.7
10.2
42.2
32.1
63.0
192.1
10.0
36.4
9.3
4.8
3.6
1.4
1.8
3.5
6.3
10.0
5.1
3.9
1.3
1.6
3.6
5.6
8.8
4.5
3.2
1.2
1.5
3.5
5.6
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Sales
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/BOE (USD, 1P basis)
RoE
RoCE
19.5
18.8
21.0
20.1
17.3
16.7
17.6
17.1
Turnover Ratios
26.2
2.4
25.0
2.5
21.9
2.3
20.5
2.2
Leverage Ratio
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.3
Y/E March
DD & A
Other op. expenses
Direct Taxes Paid
2011
343
114
4
-105
70
425
2012
428
167
0
-140
-30
425
2013E
358
185
0
-106
8
445
2014E
413
205
0
-125
-7
487
-277
33
-244
-237
1
-237
-342
0
-342
-312
0
-312
Issue of Shares
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Dividends Paid (incl.tax)
Interest paid
4
0
-118
-4
-118
0
37
-97
0
-60
0
0.4
-102
0
-102
0
0.4
-100
0
-100
63
224
287
128
287
415
1
415
417
75
417
492
Cash Flow Statement
Closing Balance
(INR Billion)
125
Oil India
Company description
Key challenges
Oil India (OIL), established in 1959, is a 'Navratna' stateowned company, engaged in exploration,
development, production and transportation of crude
oil and natural gas in India. OIL has 2P reserves of
944mmboe, ~94% of these located in the north-east. It
owns common carrier cross-country pipeline of 1,157km
for crude oil, and 660km for products, and the 192km
natural gas pipeline to Numaligarh refinery.

Upstream subsidy sharing of ~40% could become
the new normal, if the crude oil prices remain high
and the OMCs prevented from raising retail prices
of fuels.
 Oil India's producing assets are concentrated in
Assam and are present in tough terrains. Hence,
highly susceptible to supply disruption.
Valuations attractive; steady production growth; gas
price hike a long term trigger: Oil India trades at 5070% discount to global peers on EV/BOE (1P basis).
Further; despite subsidy, OIL's net realization and
PAT grew at 9% and 18% CAGR since FY05. On the
operational front, we expect 1.4% oil and 4.5% gas
production CAGR over FY12-14.
 Healthy oil/gas reserve ratio; RRR>1 consistently:
OIL's reserve mix is favorable with oil contributing
62% of its 2P reserves and 1P reserves being only at
53% of 2P reserves, indicating a large scope for
increase in 1P.
 Cash deployment - a near-term trigger: Expect
announcement of overseas acquisition in near term.
As on Mar 2012, OIL had cash balance of INR109b
(48% of assets, 38% of current market cap).

Stock info
OINL IN
601
479
5.2
556 / 431
-4 / -6 / -14
126
In 1QFY13, OIL subsidy share stood at INR20.2b and
its share in upstream subsidy stood at 13.4% (similar
to FY12).
 1QFY13 net realization at USD53.9/bbl down 10%
YoY but up 38% QoQ.
 Oil India will start drilling in NELP blocks in Mizoram
and KG onshore.
 Oil India is targeting to acquire overseas producing
assets.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Subsidy rationalization by the government and decontrolling of diesel prices.
 Likely acquisition of overseas E&P assets given the
high cash balance.

Jun-12
78.4
5.2
1.7
14.7
Mar-12
78.4
5.0
1.9
14.7
Jun-11
78.4
5.3
2.1
14.1
Y/E March
Jun-11
Operating Income
23
Change (%)
50.2
EBITDA
12
Change (%)
67.8
Reported PAT
8
Adjusted PAT
8
Change (%)
69.5
PAT Margin (%)
37.1
Key Metrics
Fx rate (INR/USD)
45
Gross Oil Realiz.
116
Subsidy
57
Net Oil Realization
60
Subsidy (INR b)
18
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Billion)
Sep-11
33
37.8
16
19.9
49.5
11
11
24.3
34.8
Dec-11
25
4.5
13
-3.4
53.5
10
10
1.2
40.6
Mar-12
17
-14.8
5
-50.0
28.0
4
4
-20.9
25.9
Jun-12
23
2.0
11
-12.2
47.0
9
9
9.5
39.9
FY12
98
0.0
47
5.5
47.9
34
34
15.6
35.3
FY13E
93
-4.7
43
290.0
45.9
34
34
262.7
36.2
46
112
26
86
8
51
110
53
57
19
50
120
81
39
29
54
110
56
54
20
48
115
54
60
74
54
105
53
52
79
August 27 - 31, 2012
Oil India: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Change in Stocks
Production Costs
Statutory Levies
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
D,D&A
Interest
Other Income
Prior period & other adj.
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
83,034
5.0
-76
13,789
24,423
44,898
54.1
12,669
139
12,458
1,421
43,127
14,255
33.1
28,872
10.6
2012
97,741
17.7
-88
23,074
27,904
46,851
47.9
15,263
105
19,536
0
51,019
16,549
32.4
34,469
19.4
Ratios
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
48.0
56.0
259.5
15.0
36.4
57.3
65.9
294.9
19.0
38.4
56.1
65.2
329.4
19.0
38.4
64.7
74.3
370.7
20.0
36.1
9.9
8.5
4.0
2.2
7.8
1.8
3.1
8.3
7.2
3.8
1.8
7.4
1.6
4.0
8.5
7.3
4.2
1.9
6.7
1.4
4.0
7.4
6.4
3.4
1.7
6.8
1.3
4.2
19.7
27.3
20.7
27.7
18.0
24.8
18.5
25.5
11
3
11
3
11
2
11
2
Leverage Ratio
-0.7
* At price of INR1,050/share
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
Inventory
5,004
5,377
5,517
5,944
Debtors
2,495
2,988
2,806
3,213
Cash & Bank Balance
117,693 107,497 107,073 106,998
Loans & Adv. and Other CA 22,819 22,819 22,819 22,819
Y/E March
2011
43,132
Depreciation
4,790
Interest /Other Income
-7,886
Direct Taxes Paid
-13,819
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital 4,034
Other op activities
288
30,540
2012
51,019
5,142
105
-17,272
-2,659
2,600
38,933
2013E
49,678
5,454
8
-14,904
1,528
5,775
47,540
2014E
57,253
5,786
8
-17,176
767
5,320
51,959
Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
-9,518
Other In activities
6,343
1,517
-20,000
-5,616
0
-25,616
-35,000
0
0
-35,000
-38,000
0
0
-38,000
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Interest paid
Dividends Paid
-10,167
-105
-13,241
-23,513
0
-8
-12,956
-12,964
0
-8
-14,026
-14,035
Balance Sheet
2013E
2014E
93,122 106,611
-4.7
14.5
29
0
18,880
20,196
31,466
34,045
42,747 52,370
45.9
49.1
14,421
14,298
8
8
21,361
19,189
0
0
49,678 57,253
15,952
18,384
32.1
32.1
33,727 38,869
-2.2
15.2
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Share Cap.(incl sh.suspense)2,405
6,011
6,011
6,011
Reserves
153,614 171,235 192,006 216,849
Net Worth
156,019 177,247 198,017 222,860
Total Loans
10,268
101
101
101
Deferred Tax
11,491 10,768 11,816 13,024
Well Abandonment
1,645
1,645
1,645
1,645
Capital Employed
179,422 189,760 211,579 237,630
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Producing/pre-producing
Investments
33,203
23,306
9,897
4,484
41,343
8,904
37,403
24,815
12,588
4,484
50,911
14,520
40,903
26,565
14,338
4,484
72,931
14,520
44,403
28,529
15,874
4,484
98,289
14,520
20,996 19,203 20,690 22,291
12,220 12,220 12,220 12,220
114,794 107,258 105,306 104,463
179,422 189,760 211,579 237,630
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS (Adj)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV/Sales
EV / BOE (1P Reserves)
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Exchange rate (INR/USD)
Subsidy (INR b)
Oil production (mmt)
Gas production (bcm)
Gross realization (USD/bbl)
Subsidy (USD/bbl)
Net realization (USD/bbl)
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
45.6
32.9
3.6
2.4
86
28
59
2012
47.9
73.5
3.8
2.6
115
55
60
2013E
53.5
78.8
3.9
2.7
105
53
53
2014E
52.0
58.4
4.0
2.9
100
39
61
Closing Balance
9,893
-153
-9,533
206
32,264 -10,196
-424
-76
85,429 117,693 107,497 107,073
117,693 107,497 107,073 106,998
127
Phoenix Mills
Company description
Key challenges
Phoenix Mills is a pioneer in the development of large
scale, mixed-format retail development in India. It is a
unique, low-risk play on the booming domestic
consumption story with no retail-specific risks.

Through its subsidiaries and associate companies it is
undertaking 40 retail/hospitality projects, totaling
~50msf across India. It owns one of the most successful
malls in India, High Street Phoenix (HSP) in Parel,
Mumbai. With the commencement of Market City
projects and Shangri-la hotel, we expect rental income
from retail to increase from INR2.5b in FY12 to INR3.9b
in FY14.
High leverage with net DER of 0.86x. Any delay in
monetization of residential/commercial projects
could defer de-leveraging plan
 The exit of PE investors at Market City SPVs,
although the company does not carry obligations
to provide an exit to these investors.
 Retail demand supply dynamics at tier II cities
Leasing momentum and operational ramp up at
Market City SPVs.
 De-leveraging.
 Value unlocking from Phase IV at HSP, where
increase in FSI could lend further upside.

Deep understanding of retail business, strong
relationship with marquee international/domestic
brands, financing partners to execute asset-heavy
projects, strategic partner to tap tier II markets
 Single-asset company to pan-India positioning with
several assets commencing operations, taking
operational assets from 2.5msf (FY11) to 5.8msf/
8.9msf/10.7msf in FY12/13/14 respectively
 Asset-heavy model offering a play on India's
booming domestic consumption and retailing story
– rental income CAGR of 25% over FY12-14.
 Monetization of residential and commercial land
parcels at Market City SPVs offer healthy cash flow
visibility to address liquidity risk.

Stock info
PHNX IN
145
180
0.5
228 / 149
-5 / -12 / -21
128
Consumptions and footfalls at Market City Pune in
1QFY13 increased 2.6x since commencement in
1QFY12. Consumptions improved from INR308m in
3QFY12 to INR608m in 1QFY13 at Bangalore.
 Bringing certain change to earlier plan of buying
out Kshitij's stake in Chennai Market City alone,
PHNX board has approved a proposal to buy out the
stake jointly with Sharyans Resources. PNHX will
hold 50.01%/50% in Classic Mall/Classic Housing post
completion of the transaction.
 The management expects no increase in leverage
on account of construction expenditure, but the
same could increase on acquisitions, if any.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
65.9
4.6
23.6
5.9
Mar-12
65.9
5.0
23.2
5.9
Jun-11
65.9
5.4
22.5
6.2
Y/E March
Jun-11
Operating Income
535
Change (%)
32.4
EBITDA
331
Change (%)
12.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 62
Reported PAT
272
Adjusted PAT
272
Change (%)
49.1
PAT Margin (%)
50.9
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
474
6.9
333
5.1
70
239
239
8.0
50.4
Dec-11
505
12.0
373
14.0
74
269
269
13.1
53.3
Mar-12
600
28.3
363
13.2
61
273
273
0.6
45.5
Jun-12
626
17.0
394
19.3
63
306
306
12.4
48.9
FY12
3,666
74.4
2,114
50.4
57.7
1,056
1,056
25.5
28.8
FY13E
4,365
19.1
2,543
20.3
58.3
1,141
1,141
8.0
26.1
August 27 - 31, 2012
Phoenix Mills: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
2,102
1,406
66.9
314
228
287
1,151
321
27.9
830
842
36.5
2012
3,666
2,114
57.7
563
944
446
1,053
189
18.0
864
1,056
25.5
2013E
4,365
2,543
58.3
802
1,097
581
1,225
306
25.0
1,141
1,141
8.0
2011
290
16,410
16,700
9,628
-9
1,965
28,284
8,880
948
7,932
10,997
4,787
8,833
1,182
961
816
1,182
4,388
3,083
2,723
360
4,568
28,284
2012
290
16,816
17,105
16,748
-247
3,566
37,173
13,383
1,503
11,880
13,591
4,869
13,058
2,516
618
1,000
2,516
6,045
3,710
3,297
413
6,832
37,173
2013E
290
17,618
17,908
16,248
-247
3,823
37,731
17,696
2,304
15,392
11,390
4,869
13,711
2,768
680
1,112
2,768
6,385
4,864
4,451
413
6,079
37,731
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Minority Interest
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Inventory
Loans and Advances
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
2014E
7,511
4,018
53.5
1,051
1,475
622
2,114
592
28.0
2,103
2,103
84.3
(INR Million)
2014E
290
19,382
19,671
15,748
-247
4,118
39,290
19,228
3,355
15,873
11,607
4,869
15,879
3,183
748
1,997
3,183
6,768
5,755
5,342
413
6,941
39,290
Stake (%) Rental Income
2011 2012 2013E 2014E
100%
HSP
1.80 1.96 2.19 2.30
Standalone
1.80 1.96 2.19 2.30
59%
Pune
0.26 0.43 0.48
24%
Kurla
0.07 0.25 0.32
46%
Bangalore
0.09 0.21 0.25
31%
Chennai
0.00 0.07 0.23
Market cities
0.00 0.41 0.97 1.29
47-74
BARE
0.05 0.07 0.15 0.15
EWDPL
0.08 0.15 0.18
Treasure&Phoenix United 0.05 0.15 0.29 0.33
Grand total
1.85 2.52 3.45 3.92
53%
Sangrila Hotel
0.00 0.23 1.02
Total rental
August 27 - 31, 2012
1.85
2.52
3.68
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
5.8
36.5
7.9
115.3
0.9
17.3
7.3
25.5
9.9
118.1
2.0
32.1
7.9
8.0
11.9
123.6
2.0
29.7
14.5
84.3
17.8
135.8
2.0
16.1
25.2
18.7
20.1
11.6
1.6
23.4
15.5
16.4
9.6
1.5
12.7
10.4
10.1
5.4
1.4
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
RoE
RoCE
5.0
5.2
6.2
6.1
6.4
6.2
10.7
9.3
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
2011
1,151
314
228
321
-500
2012
1,053
563
944
189
2,085
2013E
1,225
802
1,097
306
4,161
2014E
2,114
1,051
1,475
592
4,947
(Inc)/Dec in FA
-2,785
814
CF from Investments
-1,971
-7,105
-83
-7,188
-2,112
0
-2,112
-1,748
0
-1,748
-30
3,020
228
146
2,617
-550
7,120
944
339
5,287
0
-500
1,097
339
-1,936
0
-500
1,475
339
-2,314
145
671
816
184
816
1,000
113
1,000
1,112
885
1,112
1,997
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
CF from Operations
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Dividend Paid
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
4.94
129
Pidilite Industries
Company description
Pidilite Industries has been instrumental in evolution
of branded adhesives in the Indian market, a segment
which is commoditized globally. It has strong brands
like Fevicol, M-Seal, Dr Fixit, Hobby Ideas and Fevicryl.
Sales mix includes Adhesives (49%), Construction
chemicals (19%), Art material (10%) and Industrial
chemicals (22%).
Pidilite is a play on growth opportunity in both
consumer and industrial demand in India. It has
products which cater to woodwork, home and
office, construction, waterproofing and repairs etc.
 Pidilite has strong pricing power as its consumer
and Bazaar segment has EBIT margins of 26%.
 Pidilite has launched a host of innovative products
in waterproofing, construction chemicals and repair
work which will enable sustain high growth (20%
CAGR from past 5 years)
 Pidilite's margins can recover sooner than expected
if crude prices tend lower; VAM (Vinyl Acetate
Monomer), its key input, is a crude derivative.

Key challenges

Pidilite has invested INR3.3b and will be putting in
Stock info
PIDI IN
508
180
1.6
188 / 134
8 / 25 / 2
130
Price trend of VAM and Packaging, decline in costs
can boost margins.
 Increase in housing and infra spends, as it can boost
the growth rates further.
 Successful commissioning of Elastomers project.

Consumer & Bazaar sales were up 21.6% led by
strong momentum in volume growth and pricing.
EBIT Margins in this segment were up 125bp.
 Industrial chemical sales increased 11.5%, while
margins declined 270bp.
 Brazil - sales declined by 14% yoy - pressure on
margin continues to be there, losses jumped from
5mn in 1QFY12 to 44mn in 1QFY13.
 We expect 22% CAGR in earnings over FY12-14E.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
another INR2b in Synthetic Elastomers project,
although the pilot has been a success, risks
regarding completion and success still abound.
 Pidilite's international operations have been losing
money due to lack of scale in most of the
subsidiaries. We believe it would require at-least a
couple of years for these subs to turn profitable.
Jun-12
70.8
4.9
12.9
11.5
Mar-12
70.8
5.8
12.4
11.0
Jun-11
70.7
7.4
11.0
10.9
Y/E March
Jun-12
Operating Income
7,680
Change (%)
21.5
EBITDA
1,521
Change (%)
-2.2
Reported PAT
1,077
Adjusted PAT
1,078
Change (%)
0.1
PAT Margin (%)
14.0
Consumer & Bazaar 22.8
Industrial Products 18.4
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-12
7,103
20.5
1,302
4.8
18.3
815
864
2.2
12.2
Dec-12
6,918
16.5
1,207
1.9
17.4
593
790
-6.5
11.4
Mar-12
6,519
15.6
958
17.8
14.7
710
749
41.6
11.5
Jun-13
9,125
18.8
1,907
25.4
20.9
1,334
1,333
23.6
14.6
23.2
17.6
22.6
-2.1
22.3
5.0
21.6
11.5
FY12
23,670
159.4
4,692
146.0
19.8
0
3,297
147.4
13.9
FY13E
33,820
20.1
6,353
28.3
18.8
0
4,329
21.7
12.8
August 27 - 31, 2012
Pidilite Industries: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
23,806
Change (%)
21.8
Raw Materials
12472
Gross Profit
11334
Margin (%)
47.6
Operating Expenses
6506
EBITDA
4,828
Margin (%)
20.3
Depreciation
444
268
Other Income
150
Profit before Taxes
4,266
Margin (%)
17.9
Tax
936
Tax Rate (%)
21.9
Adj PAT
3330
Change (%)
13.4
Margin (%)
14.0
Exceptional/Prior Period inc 250
Reported PAT
3,080
2012
28,164
18.3
15674
12490
44.3
7540
4,950
17.6
479
245
428
4,653
16.5
1,096
23.6
3557
6.8
12.6
151
3,407
Balance Sheet
2013E
33,820
20.1
18457
15363
45.4
9011
6,353
18.8
548
149
235
5,890
17.4
1,561
26.5
4329
21.7
12.8
0
4,329
2014E
40,398
19.4
22153
18245
45.2
10568
7,677
19.0
612
112
313
7,267
18.0
1,962
27.0
5305
22.5
13.1
0
5,305
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Liability
Capital Employed
2011
506
10,889
11,395
2,867
410
14,672
2012
508
13,000
13,507
2,918
435
16,860
2013E
524
17,309
17,833
1,405
461
19,699
2014E
524
20,773
21,298
806
486
22,590
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
8,720
4,310
4,410
3,331
4,656
9,420
4,800
4,620
3,600
5,841
10,520
5,348
5,172
3,700
7,259
11,720
5,960
5,760
3,850
8,661
7,596
3,544
2,866
273
913
5,321
4,137
1,184
2,275
14,672
9,367
4,472
3,469
405
1,020
6,568
5,199
1,369
2,799
16,860
11,287
5,506
4,130
489
1,162
7,719
5,975
1,744
3,568
19,699
13,416
6,579
4,934
587
1,315
9,096
7,013
2,083
4,319
22,590
Curr. Assets, L&A
Inventory
Account Receivables
Others
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Key assumptions/operating metrics - Growth (%)
Y/E March
2011
Consumer & Bazaar Products 22.3
Ind & Speciality chemicals 22.3
August 27 - 31, 2012
2012
21.4
14.1
2013E
20.4
14.7
2014E
20.8
14.8
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
6.6
10.4
22.5
1.8
31.3
7.0
10.7
26.6
2.0
36.0
8.3
13.2
34.0
2.5
35.4
10.1
15.8
40.6
3.0
34.7
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
24.9
15.7
3.4
16.8
7.3
1.1
23.4
15.3
2.8
16.1
6.2
1.2
19.9
12.5
2.4
12.5
4.8
1.5
16.2
10.4
1.9
10.1
4.0
1.8
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
29.2
30.9
26.3
29.1
24.3
30.7
24.9
32.7
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
44
80
3.6
45
82
3.8
45
79
3.9
45
78
4.0
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
2011
4,266
444
268
936
-372
3,670
-250
3,420
2012
4,653
479
245
1,096
-392
3,890
-151
3,739
2013E
5,890
548
149
1,561
-685
4,342
0
4,342
2014E
7,267
612
112
1,962
-653
5,375
0
5,375
Incr in FA
Pur of Investments
CF from Invest.
-1,236
452
-784
-959
-1,185
-2,143
-1,200
-1,419
-2,619
-1,350
-1,402
-2,752
Change in Networth
Incr in Debt
Dividend Paid
Interest Paid
-2,105
-1,347
1,029
-268
-2,691
-2,453
50
1,184
-245
-1,464
-1,507
-1,512
1,529
-149
-1,640
-3,649
-599
1,834
-112
-2,525
-55
328
273
132
273
405
83
405
489
99
489
587
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before Extra Ord
Add: Depreciation
Interest Paid
Less: Taxes Paid
(Incr)/Decr in WC
CF from Operations
Extra ordinary items
CFO after extraordinary
Incr/Decr of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
131
Power Grid
Company description
Key challenges
Power Grid Corporatation (PGCIL) is a central
transmission utility (CTU) with a Navratna status, which
owns and operates most of India's inter-state and interregional transmission network. In addition to its
regulated business, PGCIL also provides consultancy
services in the transmission space and has laid down
optical fibre network for leasing to telecom companies.






Management has guided for capex worth INR1t in
12th plan which is ~2x the Eleventh Plan capex, and
thus a key driver of earnings for PGCIL.
CERC has approved setting up of nine high speed
transmission corridors (HSTCs) at a cost of INR750b
(PGCIL scope at INR660b), significantly improving
business visibility for PGCIL.
PGCIL's RAB is set to increase from ~INR178b as at
March 2012 to INR283b by FY14E (CAGR of 26%), as
projects of ~INR350b are commissioned and
capitalized in this period. This will lead to
corresponding increase in regulatory returns.
Short term open access, consultancy division and
telecom business are new additional of income,
which aids core earnings, improve reported RoE.
Inter-State transmission opportunity in 13th plan is
pegged at INR1.35t, where PGCIL would have to
compete on CBT basis. It has already demonstrated
its capability in CBT regime winning 2 projects.
Stock info
PWGR IN
4630
118
9.8
122 / 94
1/9/9
132
PGCIL is upbeat on meeting capex target of
INR1,000b in 12th plan and thus capex of INR200b
pa is crucial to watch for.
 Capitalization has been strong for the company
aided by higher capacity addition. Fuel supply has
been at risk in the interim and thus
implementations of FSAs to be monitored for
incremental capacity addition on IPPs side.

PGCIL 1QFY13 capitalization stood higher at INR41b
v/s INR8b YoY.
 Management is keen to lower CWIP in FY13
(INR155b as at Mar-12); it is targeting capitalization
of at least INR200b, v/s targeted capex of INR200b
(INR50b capitalization till July-12)
 PGCIL maintained its 12th Plan capex target of
INR1t+ and guided to manage equity commitment
without any dilution, if need by taking lower DER.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Meaningful delay in project execution owing to
delay in obtaining right of way.
 Continued delays in generation projects may slow
down the growth momentum for PGCIL.
 Weak financials of SEBs could elongate cash flow
cycle, receivables.
Jun-12
69.4
7.8
13.1
9.7
Mar-12
69.4
8.0
13.0
9.5
Jun-11
69.4
7.7
13.6
9.3
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11
22,644
Change (%)
10.2
6.5
EBITDA
18,455
18,978
Change (%)
9.8
6.3
83.8
Reported PAT
7,053
7,087
Adjusted PAT
7,022
7,601
Change (%)
18.9
27.1
PAT Margin (%)
31.9
33.6
Key Operating metrics (INR b)
Capitalization
8
33
Capex
19
27
RAB
138
148
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Dec-11
24,666
20.2
21,027
21.7
85.2
8,092
7,743
28.1
31.4
Mar-12
31,019
40.3
26,038
40.2
83.9
10,317
10,832
44.7
34.9
Jun-12
28,883
31.1
24,646
33.6
85.3
8,705
9,065
29.1
31.4
FY12
100,353
19.6
83,824
18.9
83.5
32,550
33,199
30.7
33.1
FY13E
131,748
31.3
112,739
34.5
85.6
39,758
39,758
19.8
30.2
22
41
154
78
91
178
41
30
190
141
178
178
170
190
229
August 27 - 31, 2012
Power Grid: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Cost of Goods Sold
Staff Cost
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Extra-ordinary items
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
83,887 100,353 131,748 159,616
17.7
19.6
31.3
21.2
7,459
8,430
9,694
11,148
5,915
8,100
9,315
10,712
70,513 83,824 112,739 137,756
84.1
83.5
85.6
86.3
21,994
25,725
34,652
42,965
17,339
19,432
25,900
29,313
7,111
7,497
3,274
2,382
38,247 45,976 55,462 67,861
11,278
13,427
15,704
19,215
29.5
29.2
28.3
28.3
26,969 32,550 39,758 48,646
-1,569
649
360
0
25,400 33,199 40,118 48,646
10.3
30.7
20.8
21.3
Balance Sheet
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred tax liability
Advance against dep
Grant in Aid
Capital Employed
2011
46,297
167,373
213,646
408,828
11,467
21,761
1,713
657,415
2012
46,297
188,319
234,593
520,004
16,009
21,761
1,713
794,080
2013E
2014E
46,297
46,297
214,056 245,700
260,329 291,973
631,085 748,341
21,575
28,385
21,761
21,761
1,713
1,713
936,463 1,092,173
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Net Current Assets
503,518
131,278
372,240
266,246
13,651
105,171
3,815
31,621
36,801
4,995
27,940
99,893
5,279
657,415
644,518
157,003
487,514
314,789
11,846
118,485
4,674
23,370
21,333
5,744
63,364
138,555
-20,069
794,080
814,518 994,518
191,655 234,620
622,862 759,898
334,789 364,789
10,041
8,237
122,330 131,355
6,136
7,434
27,072
32,798
11,082
3,625
6,606
7,597
71,434
79,902
153,560 172,106
-31,230 -40,751
936,463 1,092,173
Key assumptions/operating metrics (INR b)
Y/E March
Capex
Capitalization
Regulated Equity
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
137
74
136
2012
178
141
178
2013E
190
170
229
2014E
210
180
283
Ratios
Y/E March
2011
Basic (INR)
Consolidated EPS
5.5
Growth (%)
0.3
Cash EPS
10.2
Book Value
46.1
DPS
1.8
Eq. Div.Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 34.9
2012
2013E
2014E
7.2
30.7
12.7
50.7
2.2
35.6
8.7
20.8
16.1
56.2
2.6
35.3
10.5
21.3
19.8
63.1
3.2
35.0
Valuation
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
21.4
11.5
13.0
10.9
2.5
1.5
16.4
9.2
12.4
10.4
2.3
1.8
13.6
7.3
10.3
8.8
2.1
2.2
11.2
5.9
9.4
8.1
1.9
2.7
RoE
RoCE
13.6
9.3
14.8
9.0
16.2
9.4
17.6
9.6
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
138
0.2
85
0.2
75
0.2
75
0.2
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
1.7
2.1
2.4
2.6
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(INR Million)
2011
38,291
21,994
17,339
11,278
-5,910
60,436
2012
2013E
2014E
46,163 55,462 67,861
25,725
34,652
42,965
19,432
25,900
29,313
13,427
15,704
19,215
9,881
909
2,063
87,775 101,218 122,986
EO Income
-44
-187
0
0
CF frm Oper. incl. EO Items 60,392 87,588 101,218 122,986
(Inc)/Dec in FA
-135,645 -189,543 -190,000 -210,000
882
1,805
1,804
1,804
CF from Investments
-134,764 -187,738 -188,196 -208,196
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Dividend Paid
36,719
0
0
0
68,441 115,718 116,646 124,066
17,339
19,432
25,900
29,313
9,426
11,603
14,021
17,002
78,396 84,683 76,726 77,752
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
4,024
32,776
36,801
-15,467
36,801
21,333
-10,252
21,333
11,082
-7,457
11,082
3,625
133
Reliance Communications
Company description
RCom is an integrated telecom operator with presence
in wireless (CDMA+GSM), long-distance (wholesale
voice and data), and broadband segments. It has ~17%
subscriber share of the Indian wireless market (second
highest). 'Global' segment includes wholesale voice
services, retail ILD calling cards, and network
infrastructure based services. Broadband segment
caters to voice, data, video, internet, and IT
infrastructure requirements of enterprises.
Potential value unlocking in the tower business or
strategic stake sale at the parent level can lead to
de-leveraging and provide adequate resources to
drive growth in GSM and 3G.
 Presence in GSM as well as CDMA technologies.
 Potential outlay related to renewal remains one of
the lowest as none of the higher priced circles are
coming up for renewal in the next few years.

auction is expected to set the base price for all
future spectrum payments.
 Potential value unlocking from tower assets and
Reliance Globalcom business.
 Final government decision on spectrum re-farming.
 Ramp-up of the 3G subscriber base post recent sharp





Key challenges
Hyper-competition in the Indian mobile industry.
 Regulatory uncertainty related to pricing of allocated
spectrum and spectrum re-farming.
 High leverage with net debt/EBITDA of >5x.




Court is expected to be held in November 2012. The

Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Y/E March
Jun-11
Revenue
49,401
YoY Change(%)
-3.3
EBITDA
16,021
YoY Change(%)
-1.8
Reported PAT
1,574
Adjusted PAT
2,235
YoY Change(%)
-25.4
PAT Margin(%)
4.5
Mobile Traffic (B Min) 98
QoQ Change(%)
3.2
Mobile RPM (INR)
0.44
QoQ Change(%)
-0.1
E: MOSL Estimates
RCOM IN
2064
56
2.1
110 / 53
-17 / -43 / -31
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
134
Jun-12
67.9
9.3
8.0
14.8
Mar-12
67.9
9.3
8.4
14.4
Jun-11
67.9
8.9
9.7
13.5
1QFY13 EBITDA grew 3% YoY and 1% QoQ to
INR16.5b (5% below estimate).
Reported PAT of INR1.62b was in line with our
estimate as lower depreciation and tax offset the
EBITDA shortfall.
Wireless revenue growth was below estimate at
0.5% QoQ. Wireless EBITDA grew 0.6% QoQ to
INR12.1b (EBITDA margin of 26.7%).
Traffic was up 2% QoQ (4%/4%/6% for Bharti/
Vodafone/Idea) to 105b minutes
RPM declined 1% QoQ (2.5% QoQ decline for Bharti/
Idea) to 43.1p.
Flat 1QFY13 wireless EBITDA performance compared
favorably with the sharp QoQ decline reported by
Bharti (India & SA) and Idea.
While net debt declined by INR1.9b QoQ to
INR356b, this was accompanied with ~INR19b
increase in current liabilities to INR166b.
Capex guidance for FY13 is INR15b.
(INR Million)
Sep-11
50,402
-1.5
16,051
-3.3
31.8
2,521
3,223
-34.3
6.4
Dec-11
50,521
1.0
16,111
-3.4
31.9
1,862
2,408
-54.2
4.8
Mar-12
53,100
-0.4
16,322
2.5
30.7
3,316
2,017
13.6
3.8
Jun-12
53,192
7.7
16,502
3.0
31.0
1,624
1,914
-14.4
3.6
FY12
203,424
-1.1
64,506
-1.5
31.7
9,274
9,884
-33.8
4.9
FY13E
213,979
5.2
65,949
2.2
30.8
6,611
7,587
-23.2
3.5
99
1.4
0.45
0.7
100
1.0
0.45
-0.3
103
3.4
0.44
-2.0
105
1.8
0.43
-1.3
399
426
0.44
0.43
August 27 - 31, 2012
Reliance Communications: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Revenues
205,627
Change (%)
-7.6
EBITDA
65,515
% of Gross Sales
31.9
39,739
EBIT
25,776
Net Interest and others -10,723
PBT
15,053
Tax
117
Rate (%)
0.8
Adjusted PAT
14,936
Change (%)
-69.4
PAT after EO
13,457
2012
203,424
-1.1
64,506
31.7
39,783
24,723
-15,901
8,822
-1,062
-12.0
9,884
-33.8
9,274
2013E
213,979
5.2
65,949
30.8
37,254
28,694
-21,033
7,661
74
1.0
7,587
-23.2
6,611
2012
10,320
90,306
216,497
317,123
369,178
8,602
694,903
2013E
10,320
90,306
216,932
317,558
364,610
9,683
691,851
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Addl. Paid up Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Minority Interest
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less : Depreciation
Net Block
Investments
2014E
226,617
5.9
70,981
31.3
38,571
32,410
-19,866
12,545
250
2.0
12,295
62.0
10,829
(INR Million)
2011
10,320
90,306
256,892
357,518
373,757
8,245
739,520
2014E
10,320
90,306
227,157
327,784
341,371
11,148
680,302
1,002,814 1,045,869 1,087,660 1,109,462
273,406 331,091 379,870 418,441
729,408 714,778 707,789 691,021
1,089
1,230
1,284
1,284
Curr. Assets
Inventories
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
160,784
5,172
40,017
53,272
62,323
160,806
5,663
35,839
10,785
108,519
179,806
5,077
41,876
21,891
110,962
189,132
5,377
44,349
21,891
117,515
Curr. Liab. & Prov.
Net Curr. Assets
Appl. of Funds
151,761
9,023
739,520
181,911
-21,105
694,903
197,028
-17,222
691,851
201,135
-12,003
680,302
161
5
0.7
-52
426
7
98
-4
226
-2
0.43
-2
9
5
171
6
0.8
16
446
5
99
1
224
-1
0.44
2
14
7
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout %(Incl.Div.Taxes)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
7.2
26.5
177.3
0.6
9.0
4.8
24.1
157.9
0.3
6.5
3.7
21.7
158.6
0.3
9.1
6.0
24.7
164.3
0.3
5.6
11.6
2.3
7.3
2.3
0.4
0.5
15.2
2.6
6.9
2.1
0.4
0.5
9.4
2.3
6.1
1.9
0.3
0.5
3.9
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.3
2.9
3.7
3.4
71
0.32
64
0.30
71
0.32
71
0.34
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
Y/E March
2011
Op.Profit/(Loss) bef Tax 64,036
Other Income
0
Interest Paid
-10,723
Direct Taxes Paid
-117
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap. -120,718
CF from Op.Activity
-67,522
2012
63,896
0
-15,901
1,062
-61,424
-12,367
2013E
64,972
0
-21,033
-74
1,650
45,515
2014E
69,517
0
-19,866
-250
-5,220
44,181
-53,752
110
-53,642
-25,153
-141
-25,294
-30,266
-54
-30,320
-21,803
0
-21,803
Issue of Shares
0
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
126,284
Dividends Paid
2
Other Financing Activities -434
125,852
0
-4,579
2
-246
-4,823
0
-4,568
2
478
-4,088
0
-23,239
2
861
-22,376
-42,487
53,272
10,785
11,106
10,785
21,891
0
21,891
21,891
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Wireless
Subs (m)
YoY (%)
Net adds per month (m)
YoY (%)
Total mobile traffic (b min)
YoY (%)
Avg. Rev Per User (INR/mon)
YoY (%)
Minutes of Use/Sub/Month
YoY (%)
Wireless RPM (INR)
YoY (%)
Wireless capex (INR b)
Wireless Capex/Sales (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
August 27 - 31, 2012
136
33
2.77
12
375
7
116
-28
262
-21
0.44
-8
116
70
153
13
1.4
-48
399
7
102
-12
231
-12
0.44
0
8
5
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Closing Balance
4,687
48,585
53,272
135
Reliance Industries
Company description
Reliance Industries (RIL), a Fortune 500 company, is
India's largest private sector entity, with turnover of
USD66.8b and net profit of USD3.9b. Till recently, RIL
has reported consistently high CAGR in topline and
bottomline through backward integration in energy
chain (textiles, petchem, refining and E&P). It is now
trying to make its mark in new areas like retail and
telecom (owns BWA license).
cotton prices will act as a limiting factor for margins
in the short term.
Key challenges
Declining KG-D6 production.
RoE accretive cash utilization.
 Our estimates could be adversely affected by lower
than expected refining and petchem margins.


DGH approvals for its E&P program and update on
its KG-D6 ramp-up.
 Margin trend in refining and petchem.
 Developments on its USD12b capex plan on new
capacities.
 Launch of its Broadband Wireless Access (BWA)
services.

E&P (22% of FY12 EBIT) upside contingent on
government approvals: E&P segment growth is
limited in medium-term led by declining KG-D6
production and reserve downgrade by RIL/Niko.
Delays in approvals of development plans for
satellite fields in KG-D6 and NEC-25 is further adding
to uncertainty.
 Refining (40% of FY12 EBIT) - global capacity closures
will boost margins: Unless significant refining
closures take place, GRM's are unlikey to increase
meaningfully in view of uncertain global economic
environment (particularly Europe) and declining
Light-Heavy differentials.
 Petchem (38% of FY12 EBIT) - Margins seems to have
bottomed: While polymers margins seems to have
bottomed, recovery will be contingent on global
economic environment. On the polyester front,

Stock info
RIL IN
3242
815
47.4
902 / 674
10 / 3 / 3
136
RIL' 1QFY13 GRM stood at USD7.6/bbl, a premium of
USD0.9/bbl over Singapore led by expansion in Arab
L-H differential and increased premium for low
sulphur diesel.
 Petchem EBIT margin at 8% was the lowest since
3QFY05 led by weak polyester and PP margins.
 RIL plans to submit integrated revised field
development plan (FDP) for D1/D3 in 3QFY13.
 RIL guides for 8-10% contribution at EBITDA level
from its shale gas business by 2015.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
45.3
11.1
21.0
22.6
Mar-12
44.9
10.6
21.7
22.8
Jun-11
44.8
10.7
21.9
22.6
Y/E March
Jun-11
Operating Income
810
Change (%)
39.1
EBITDA
99
Change (%)
6.3
Reported PAT
57
Adjusted PAT
57
Change (%)
16.7
PAT Margin (%)
7.0
Key Metrics
GRM (USD/bbl)
10.3
KG-D6 production (mmscmd) 49
Segmental EBIT Breakup
Refining
32
Petrochemicals
22
E&P, others
15
Total
69
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Billion)
Sep-11
786
36.7
98
4.8
12.5
57
57
15.8
7.3
Dec-11
851
42.4
73
-23.7
8.6
44
44
-13.6
5.2
Mar-12
852
17.2
66
-33.3
7.7
42
42
-21.2
5.0
Jun-12
919
13.4
67
-32.0
7.3
45
45
-21.0
4.9
FY12
3,299
32.9
336
-11.8
10.2
200
200
-1.2
6.1
FY13E
3,550
7.6
289
-13.9
8.2
190
190
236.2
5.4
10.1
45
6.8
41
7.6
35
7.6
33
8.7
43
7.8
28
31
24
15
70
17
22
13
51
17
22
10
48
22
18
10
49
97
90
53
239
89
78
36
203
August 27 - 31, 2012
Reliance Industries: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate* (%)
PAT
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
(INR Billion)
2011
2,482
28.9
381
15.4
136
23
31
252
50
19.6
203
203
24.9
2012
3,299
32.9
336
10.2
114
27
62
258
57
22.2
200
200
-1.2
Balance Sheet
2013E
3,531
7.0
289
8.2
101
29
79
239
49
20.3
190
190
-5.0
2014E
3,226
-8.6
322
10.0
97
29
70
266
60
22.6
206
206
8.2
(INR Billion)
Y/E March
2011
Share Cap. (incl sh. Susp.)
33
Reserves
1483
Net Worth
1,515
Total Loans
674
Deferred Tax
116
Capital Employed
2,305
2012
33
1628
1,661
684
121
2,466
2013E
32
1765
1,798
682
126
2,605
2014E
32
1938
1,970
679
131
2,781
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
2213
785
1,427
128
377
2055
918
1,137
78
540
2106
1018
1,088
179
581
2166
1115
1,051
293
623
298
174
271
171
360
184
396
257
383
189
344
264
348
173
414
272
497
46
373
2,305
442
43
712
2,466
375
48
758
2,606
343
50
814
2,781
48
68
109
8.4
8.3
0.1
43
54
69
111
7.8
7.2
0.6
28
52
66
107
8.6
8.0
0.6
22
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans&Adv.and Other CA
Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Exchange rate
Refining throughput (mmt)
Ref. cap. utilization (%)
RIL GRM
Singapore GRM
Premium
KG-D6 gas production*
*mmscmd
August 27 - 31, 2012
46
67
107
8.7
5.2
3.5
56
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Adj. EPS (ex Treasury)
Cash EPS
Adj. Book Value
DPS
2011
62.0
68.4
103.5
511.2
8.0
13.7
Valuation (x)
P/E
Adj. P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Sales
Adj. Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
2012
2013E
2014E
61.3
67.7
96.1
560.7
8.5
14.7
58.7
64.9
89.8
613.2
8.9
17.7
63.5
70.2
93.5
671.5
9.3
17.0
13.2
11.9
7.9
7.7
1.2
1.6
1.0
13.3
12.0
8.5
7.9
0.8
1.5
1.0
13.9
12.6
9.1
9.2
0.8
1.3
1.1
12.8
11.6
8.7
8.1
0.8
1.2
1.1
14.8
12.9
13.0
12.1
11.2
10.7
11.1
11.1
Turnover Ratios
21
1.1
20
1.5
19
1.7
20
1.5
Leverage Ratio
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
2011
252
162
-3
-42
1
-38
333
2012
258
137
-17
-48
-28
-32
270
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
Depreciation
Interest /Other Income
Direct Taxes Paid
Other op activities
(INR Billion)
-121
(Pur)/Sale of Investments -141
Other In activities
59
-203
2013E
239
101
-50
-44
-98
0
147
2014E
266
97
-41
-55
14
0
281
-80
62
-12
-30
-153
-41
79
-114
-175
-42
70
-146
Change in Equity
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Dividends Paid
2
30
-24
7
-2
-85
-28
-115
-24
-32
-29
-85
0
-31
-34
-65
Closing Balance
137
135
271
125
271
396
-52
396
344
70
344
414
137
Reliance Infrastructure
Company description
Key challenges
Reliance Infrastructure is an infrastructure
conglomerate with presence in Roads, Urban Infra
(MRTS), Power (entire chain including Generation,
Transmission, Distribution), Real Estate, etc. The
company has in-house EPC capabilities developed over
period of time.

Regulatory approval 1) Renewal of Rinfra' Mumbai
region power distribution license for 25 years 2)
Recovery of past arrears of INR19b 3) Levy of Cross
subsidy surcharge, removes overhang on
distribution business of Rinfra.
 EPC order book of INR156b (book to bill ratio of 1.3x),
provides revenue visibility for the segment.
 RELI has invested INR40b in its infra portfolio of 25
infra projects aggregating around ~INR400b, of
which 7 road projects (590 km), 6 transmission line
(715km) are operational and is targeting to
commission another 3 Roads and 3 transmission lines
by FY13.
 Net cash stands as at FY12 at INR44b coupled with
robust cash flows from existing operations and net
debt free status would enable the company to fund
equity contribution towards on-going/future
projects.
Internal orders represent ~80% of EPC business
order book and R-Power contributes 90%+ of
internal order book, leading to concentration.
 Sectoral caps/group exposure norms have impacted
funding to various power/infrastructure projects.
Successful financial closure for major projects under
development is important for timely
implementation.

Stock info
RELI IN
263
511
2.4
680 / 328
-5 / -14 / 8
138
MERC has approved recovery of prior period tariff
arrears (Including cross subsidy surcharge) of
INR23b. Recovery is to start from 1QFY13.
 Firm gas allocation for Dadri/other gas based
projects from EGoM will provide visibility on gas
based generation projects of R-Power.
 Operational performance of infra projects in FY13

Reliance Infra 1QFY13 PAT boosted by higher
revenue and margin under EPC segment.
 EBIT contribution from Infra segment stood positive
at INR364m (v/s loss of INR55m YoY) in 1QFY13.
 As at FY12, equity investment in various
infrastructure SPV's stand at INR43.6b and INR12b
outstanding equity is expected to be infused in near
term.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Jun-12
Promoter
48.6
Domestic Instn 21.3
Foreign
16.5
Others
13.6
Mar-12
48.6
21.2
16.3
14.0
Jun-11
48.1
21.0
17.1
13.8
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
64.3
EBITDA
6,961
Change (%)
174.7
Reported PAT
4,305
Adjusted PAT
2,874
Change (%)
16.7
PAT Margin (%)
7.9
EPC Order Book (INR b)280
EPC Revenue (INR b) 19
EPC margins (%)
20
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
39,505
62.0
7,096
70.5
18.0
4,957
4,903
122.4
12.4
Dec-11
44,777
69.8
6,518
144.1
14.6
4,158
4,057
118.6
9.1
Mar-12
57,316
148.1
6,173
156.1
10.8
6,581
6,478
56.6
11.3
Jun-12
34,473
-12.7
4,598
-35.2
13.3
3,270
3,270
-33.3
9.5
FY12
178,205
85.3
26,748
127.1
15.0
20,002
19,621
84.1
11.0
FY13E
145,124
-18.6
15,003
-43.9
10.3
10,486
10,486
-46.6
7.2
243
24
23
212
30
17
173
44
11
156
18
17
173
117
17
223
69
7
August 27 - 31, 2012
Reliance Infrastructure: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Sales
Other Operating Income
Total Revenues
Change (%)
EBITDA
% of Total Revenues
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
58,062
38,084
96,146
-4.1
11,777
12.2
3,134
2,424
5,132
11,351
541
4.8
10,810
1.8
10,810
1.8
2012
56,140
122,065
178,205
85.3
26,748
15.0
2,678
4,466
5,372
24,977
4,975
19.9
20,002
85.0
19,621
81.5
Balance Sheet
2013E
77,013
86,500
163,513
-8.2
20,087
12.3
4,452
7,579
6,698
14,755
3,085
20.9
11,669
-41.7
11,669
-40.5
2014E
85,275
66,940
152,215
-6.9
18,075
11.9
3,982
4,377
7,123
16,838
3,521
20.9
13,318
14.1
13,318
14.1
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Share Capital
2,675
Reserves
169,182
Net Worth
171,857
Loans
39,692
Consumer's Security Depos.
0
990
Capital Employed
212,539
2012
2,675
187,379
190,053
51,792
-45
990
242,790
2013E
2,675
197,243
199,917
55,642
-90
1,440
256,909
2014E
2,675
208,755
211,430
58,967
-134
1,890
272,152
Gross Fixed Assets
105,137
Less: Dep & Reval. Res. -47,896
Net Fixed Assets
57,242
Capital WIP
6,493
Investments
125,841
113,387
-50,573
62,814
5,644
130,570
118,887
-55,025
63,863
3,500
130,620
123,637
-59,007
64,630
0
130,670
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Misc Expenses
234,924
2,700
28,769
90,734
83,888
28,832
197,928
185,324
12,604
36,995
1
242,790
231,711
2,700
29,632
97,111
76,976
25,291
179,551
167,199
12,352
52,161
2
256,909
229,935
2,700
30,521
104,582
72,565
19,567
159,850
147,745
12,105
70,085
2
272,152
2013E
222.8
25.6
10.3
2014E
272.8
12.8
10.0
160,940
2,903
27,931
3,711
108,713
17,681
137,976
125,114
12,862
22,964
212,539
Y/E March
EPC Order Book (INR b)
EPC Revenue (INR b)
EPC EBITDA Margins (%)
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
246.25
57.6
13.0
2012
172.8
60.35
22.9
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS (Fully Diluted)
CEPS (INR)
Book Value
DPS
2011
40.4
40.4
52.1
642.5
6.0
16.7
Valuation (x)
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
2012
2013E
2014E
73.4
73.4
83.4
710.6
6.0
9.2
43.6
43.6
60.3
747.4
6.0
15.5
49.8
49.8
64.7
790.5
6.0
13.6
7.0
1.0
0.1
0.7
1.2
11.7
1.5
0.2
0.7
1.2
10.3
1.8
0.2
0.6
1.2
RoE
RoCE
6.8
7.1
11.1
13.3
6.0
9.1
6.5
8.1
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
106
11
0.5
59
6
0.7
66
6
0.6
73
6
0.6
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Less : Direct Taxes Pd
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(INR Million)
2011
11,351
3,134
541
48,907
62,851
2013E
14,755
4,452
2,635
-8,788
7,783
2014E
16,838
3,982
3,071
-10,454
7,296
-7,402
-4,729
-12,130
-3,356
-50
-3,406
-1,250
-50
-1,300
16,288
-3,225
0
5,775
0
3,850
0
3,325
0
-1,805
2,014
13,272
-45
-1,805
-442
3,483
-45
-1,805
0
2,000
-45
-1,805
0
1,475
692
3,018
3,710
87,023
3,711
90,734
6,377
90,734
97,111
7,470
97,111
104,582
(Inc)/dec in FA
-31,864
(Pur)/Sale of Investmnts-43,566
CF from Investments
-75,431
(Inc)/Dec in Share
Capital and reserves
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
(Inc)/Dec in Customer
Security Deposits
Dividend Paid
Others
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
2012
24,977
2,678
4,975
72,992
95,671
139
Rural Electrification Corporation
Company description
Key challenges
Rural Electrification Corporation (RECL) is a Navratna
Central Public Sector Enterprise under Ministry of Power
providing financial support to promote rural
electrification projects all over the country. As on June
2012, RECL had an outstanding loanbook of over INR1t
and sanctions pipeline of ~INR1.4 t.

Despite macroeconomic slowdown, RECL has been
able to grow its loan book by 24% YoY and 5% QoQ in
1QFY13 led by strong sanctions pipeline (~INR1.4t
as on June 2012). While the current uncertain macro
environment may put questions over existing
sanctions getting converted into disbursements,
corrective measures by the government and its
thrust on infrastructure development could boost
growth.
 RECL has demonstrated excellent asset liability
management skills over the past few quarters, which
has resulted into strong margin performance. For
FY12, RECL recorded margin of 4.3%+, much higher
than its peers. With wholesale rates already starting
to cool off, we expect margins to remain steady at
current levels.
 Despite higher exposure to state utilities, RECL's
asset quality has remained relatively healthy.
 Currently, the stock offers a healthy dividend yield
of ~5%, even after factoring in dividend payout of
25% v/s average ~30% payout historically.

Stock info
RECL IN
987
211
3.7
251 / 142
6 / -12 / 11
140
The final guidelines on SEB loan restructuring for
banks and IFCs will be crucial in determining the
asset quality impact for RECL.
 RECL has submitted its roadmap to the RBI to adopt
the standard NBFC regulations by March 2013.
Approval of the same will decide, the impact of
standard asset provisioning on RECL's earnings from
FY14 onwards.

RECL's 1QFY13 performance was much above
expectations led by strong topline performance
(driven by better than expected margins), higher
other income and NIL provisions during the quarter.
 Loans grew strongly by 24% YoY and 5% QoQ; while
margins improved by 27bp QoQ leading to positive
surprise on the topline front.
 For FY13, management expects loan growth in the
region of 20-25%.
 On the asset quality front, management continues
to remain cautious as the macro environment
remains challenging.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Continued policy paralysis could lead to slowdown
in growth as the current sanctions pipeline may not
get converted into disbursements.
 With increasing share of private players and higher
share of loans to SEBs the asset quality risks remain
high.
Jun-12
66.8
6.1
20.2
7.0
Mar-12
66.8
6.4
19.6
7.2
Jun-11
66.8
5.2
19.1
8.9
Y/E March (INR m) Jun-11
YoY Gr. (%)
17.3
Operating Profit
9,206
YoY Gr. (%)
16.1
Provisions
250
Profit After Tax
6,619
YoY Gr. (%)
12.7
Adj. PAT
6,672
YoY Gr. (%)
13.5
Loan Growth (%)
24.0
NIM (%; calc.)
4.3
GNPA (%)
0.3
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
9,501
21.8
8,337
-0.3
0
6,225
0.7
7,166
19.8
Dec-11
10,052
18.5
10,629
17.9
241
7,695
15.9
7,054
6.5
Mar-12
10,207
19.5
10,277
8.6
32
7,627
8.9
7,675
16.5
Jun-12
11,654
28.1
11,784
28.0
0
8,767
32.5
9,046
35.6
FY12
38,850
19.3
38,454
10.6
523
28,173
9.6
28,566
14.0
FY13E
47,271
21.7
47,068
22.4
750
34,275
21.7
34,935
22.3
24.0
4.3
0.3
25.4
4.3
0.5
24.1
4.2
0.5
24.3
4.5
0.5
23.4
4.2
0.5
19.8
4.2
0.8
August 27 - 31, 2012
Rural Electric Corporation: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Interest on Loans
Interest Expense
Net Financing Income
Change (%)
Other Operating Income
Other Income
Net Income
Change (%)
Employee Cost
Administrative Exp
Other Operating Exp.
Operating Income
Change (%)
Total Provisions
% to Operating Income
PBT
Prior Period Adjustments
PBT(post prior period adj)
Tax (Incl Deferred tax)
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
PAT (Incl DTL)
Change (%)
Proposed Dividend
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Borrowings
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Net Fixed Assets
Net current assets
Total Assets
August 27 - 31, 2012
(INR Million)
2011
81,088
48,510
32,578
28.8
1,481
2,384
36,443
29.8
1,275
337
66
34,765
31.5
2
0.0
34,763
-32
34,731
9,067
26.1
25,664
28.5
25,610
28.2
7,406
2012
102,640
63,790
38,850
19.3
741
1,189
40,780
11.9
1,710
370
246
38,454
10.6
523
1.4
37,931
0
37,931
9,758
25.7
28,173
9.8
28,200
10.1
7,410
2013E
124,696
77,425
47,271
21.7
1,481
841
49,592
21.6
1,795
426
303
47,068
22.4
750
1.6
46,318
0
46,318
12,043
26.0
34,275
21.7
34,275
21.5
10,283
2014E
145,802
88,969
56,833
20.2
1,778
976
59,586
20.2
2,064
490
363
56,669
20.4
1,000
1.8
55,669
0
55,669
14,474
26.0
41,195
20.2
41,195
20.2
12,358
(INR Million)
2011
2012
2013E
9,875
9,875
9,875
117,884 137,475 159,719
127,758 147,349 169,594
700,038 899,680 1,044,146
25.1
28.5
16.1
827,797 1,047,029 1,213,740
8,124
7,580
7,959
-10.7
-6.7
5.0
821,321 1,013,620 1,214,123
23.6
23.4
19.8
881
780
865
-2,529
25,049
-9,207
827,797 1,047,029 1,213,740
2014E
9,875
186,455
196,329
1,232,655
18.1
1,428,985
8,357
5.0
1,433,320
18.1
890
-13,582
1,428,985
Ratios
Y/E March
Avg.Yield-on Financing
Portfolio
Avg Cost of Funds
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
2011
10.9
7.6
3.3
4.4
RoE
RoA
2012
2013E
2014E
11.2
7.9
3.3
4.2
11.2
7.8
3.3
4.2
11.0
7.7
3.3
4.3
21.5
3.4
20.5
3.0
21.6
3.0
22.5
3.1
59.8
4.6
76.0
62.1
5.7
73.5
62.1
5.1
71.1
61.0
4.9
70.8
Loans/Borrowings Ratio 117.3
Debt/Equity Ratio
5.5
112.7
6.1
116.3
6.2
116.3
6.3
149.2
1.4
38.9
5.4
28.6
10.1
7.4
7.5
3.6
171.7
1.2
47.7
4.4
34.7
21.5
6.1
10.4
4.9
198.8
1.1
41.7
5.1
41.7
20.2
5.1
12.5
5.9
Valuations
Book Value (INR)
Price-BV (x)
OPS (INR)
Price-OP (x)
EPS (INR)
EPS Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend
Dividend Yield (%)
129.4
35.2
25.9
28.2
7.5
141
Shoppers Stop
Company description
Shoppers Stop is positioned as premium retailer in India
having 139 stores in 19 cities with an area of 3.7m sqft
across formats. Major retail formats include
Departmental stores (Shoppers Stop), Hypermart
(Hypercity), Books (Crossword), Specialty (Mac, Estee
Lauder and Clinique) and Home Retailing (Home Stop).
It is promoted by CL Raheja group, one of the largest
real estate groups in India.
Shoppers Stop is a play on rising consumer
discretionary spends, with its lifestyle positioning
and growing presence across formats.
 With current area of 3.2m sqft across 52 stores, it
plans to expand by increasing its departmental store
count to 60.
 It provides an opportunity to participate in
Hypermart format and benefit from FDI in retail due
to its 51% stake in Hypercity Retail.
1QFY13), lower internal cash generation and faster
expansions could burden the balance sheet.
With FDI in retail likely in the near future, funding
options for Hypercity as well as other specialty
formats could open up.
 LTL growth and margin trends over next few
quarters.
 Sales trend in Tier2/3 stores of Hypercity and EBIDTA
level breakeven.


Key challenges
Increase in apparel prices as well as initial signs of
slower off-take in consumer discretionary formats
have impacted LTL volume growth and margins.
 With increasing losses in Hypercity (INR214m in

Stock info
SHOP IN
83
365
0.5
427 / 251
-2 / 11 / -11
142
LTL sales growth of 1% due to weak economic
outlook. LTL volumes declined 4% as against 1%
growth in 1QFY13.
 Hypercity Retail (51% stake) reported sales of
INR1.9b (INR1.6b in 4QFY12). LTL sales growth
improved to 7% but LTL volumes fell 7%. Net loss
declined marginally from INR217m to INR214m.
 We expect margins for FY12-13 to remain under
pressure due to 1) weak consumer demand,
2) higher apparel prices affecting volumes, 3) rising
wage costs due to high inflation, and 3) increase in
overheads due to new store openings. Margin
recovery is likely only in FY14.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
67.8
9.5
9.8
12.9
Mar-12
67.9
6.5
13.7
12.0
Jun-11
68.2
6.6
13.2
12.1
Y/E March
Jun-12
Operating Income
3,930
change (%)
14.4
EBITDA
263
Change (%)
5.2
Reported PAT
117
Adjusted PAT
117
Change (%)
17.2
PAT Margin (%)
3.0
LTL Sales Gr %
7.0
Deptt Stores
41
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-12
4,973
14.9
387
1.4
7.8
195
195
12.5
3.9
Dec-12
5,017
9.9
414
-19.7
8.2
193
193
-30.8
3.8
Mar-12
5,406
18.5
363
-2.8
6.7
137
137
-31.0
2.5
Jun-13
4,467
13.6
138
-47.7
3.1
12
12
-89.4
0.3
FY12
19,300
16.3
1,427
-6.2
7.4
12
12
-89.4
0.1
FY13E
25,148
30.3
1,816
27.3
7.2
220
220
12.6
0.9
11.0
43
-1.3
49
10.0
51
1.0
52
7.0
51
10.0
60
August 27 - 31, 2012
Shoppers Stop: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Revenues
17,120
Change (%)
22.2
241
Total Expenditure
15,599
EBITDA
1,521
Change (%)
43.0
Margin (%)
8.9
Depreciation
310
145
Non-operational Income
72
Profit before Taxes
1,138
Change (%)
98.9
Margin (%)
6.6
Tax
387
Tax Rate (%)
34.0
Profit after Taxes
751
Change (%)
79.9
Margin (%)
4.4
Exceptionals
1
Reported PAT
752
2012
19,024
11.1
277
17,829
1,427
-6.2
7.5
377
250
178
978
-14.0
5.1
335
34.3
643
-14.5
3.4
0
643
Balance Sheet
2013E
25,148
32.2
343
23,331
1,816
27.3
7.2
459
299
159
1,218
24.5
4.8
402
33.0
816
26.9
3.2
0
816
2014E
29,943
19.1
394
27,667
2,276
25.3
7.6
524
251
160
1,661
36.4
5.5
548
33.0
1,113
36.4
3.7
0
1,113
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
2011
411
5,570
5,981
1,487
-33
7,436
2012
411
6,078
6,489
3,062
0
9,551
2013E
411
6,751
7,162
2,765
0
9,927
2014E
411
7,668
8,079
2,260
0
10,339
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Property Lease Deposit
Investments
5,056
1,935
3,121
446
1,068
2,372
6,649
2,310
4,339
250
1,352
2,550
7,691
2,768
4,923
250
1,516
2,652
8,669
3,292
5,377
250
1,664
2,958
Curr. Assets, L&A
Inventory
Account Receivables
Loans and Advances
3,428
1,511
160
26
1,730
4,537
2,050
158
195
2,134
5,092
2,408
181
219
2,284
5,469
2,643
212
156
2,458
3,000
Account Payables
2,771
Other Liabilities
159
Provisions
70
Net Current Assets
428
7,436
Number of Stores
38
Gross Margin
31.4
E: MOSL Estimates
3,477
3,182
183
112
1,060
9,551
4,506
4,152
211
143
586
9,927
5,380
4,942
242
195
89
10,339
51
31.6
60
31.5
68
31.5
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
9.1
12.9
72.8
0.8
8.2
7.8
12.4
79.0
1.2
14.9
9.9
15.5
87.2
1.5
15.0
13.5
19.9
98.3
2.0
15.0
46.7
29.4
1.6
21.2
4.6
0.3
36.8
23.5
1.2
16.5
4.2
0.4
27.0
18.3
1.0
12.8
3.7
0.6
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoCE Adjusted for Inv
12.6
16.3
23.9
9.9
11.0
15.0
11.4
13.7
18.7
13.8
16.9
23.7
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
3
2.3
3
2.0
3
2.5
3
2.9
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
Y/E March
Profit before tax
Add : Depreciation
Interest
Direct Taxes Paid
Incr in WC
Ch In DFA
Extra-ordinay Income
CF from Operations
2011
1,138
68
145
387
613
13
1
366
2012
978
375
250
335
463
33
0
772
2013E
1,218
459
299
402
-499
0
0
2,072
2014E
1,661
524
251
548
-434
0
0
2,322
Incr in FA
Investments
CF from Invest.
650
1,175
1,825
1,396
179
1,574
1,042
102
1,144
978
306
1,284
Incraese in networth
Increase In debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
2,210
-506
145
70
-34
1,455
-23
1,575
250
112
-219
971
0
-297
299
143
-164
-903
0
-505
251
195
-149
-1,101
-4
30
26
168
26
195
25
195
219
-63
219
156
Cash Flow Statement
Incr/Decr of Cash
Closing Balance
(INR Million)
143
Shriram Transport Finance
Company description

Shriram Transport Finance (SHTF) is strategically well
placed in the niche CV financing market with over three
decades of experience. After developing a strong
presence in the CV financing space, SHTF has diversified
into the construction equipment financing business. It
has an evenly distributed pan-India network of 513
branch offices and an employee base of over 14,000
people. SHTF has well established and time tested
procedures for valuation of assets, loan generation and
collection. As of 1QFY13, it had AUM worth INR419b.
Over FY09-12, SHTF posted AUM CAGR of 20% and profit
CAGR of 27%.
SHTF's business model is unique with high entry
barriers and is difficult to replicate. This has enabled
SHTF to sustain superior return ratios with RoAs (on
AUMs) of over 2.5% and RoEs in excess of 20% over
a period of time.
 On back of significant moderation in macroeconomic
activities and higher competitive pressures SHTF
moderated its AUM growth to 11% in FY12 vs ~35%
CAGR over FY06-11. We believe SHTF will be
relatively better placed in terms of assets quality vs
peers which have grown this portfolio aggressively
during the uncertain times.
 While certain state specific issues led to periodic
spike in GNPA, overall delinquency ratio remained
under control. NNPA ratio remains under control at
~60bp and it has healthy PCR of 80%.

Stock info
SHTF IN
226
594
2.4
707 / 416
5 / 6 / -9
144
Key challenges
Continued moderation in economic growth can
lead to a prolonged period of moderation in AUM
growth.
 Tighter securitization norms could affect margins.
 Proposed changes in asset classification and
provisioning norms for NBFCs could lead to higher
stress on earnings and reported asset quality.
 Moderating freight intake and fall in freight rates
will lead to higher pressure on asset quality

RBI guidelines on NBFC regulations
 Comments by banks on CV portfolio growth and
asset quality

Performance highlights of 1QFY13: AUM growth of
13% YoY and 4% QoQ; No securitization during the
quarter, Share of On books AUM at 61% vs 55% a
quarter ago, NIMs improved ~20bp QoQ to 7.4% and
GNPA stable QoQ at ~3%.
 Guidance for FY13: 10-15% AUM growth, NIM
between 7-8%, Asset quality to be stable from
hereon.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Expected moderation in interest rates, coupled with
abating regulatory headwinds will be positive for
monoline financers like SHTF.
Jun-12
46.2
2.0
40.2
11.6
Mar-12
45.6
2.4
39.4
12.5
Jun-11
41.3
2.2
42.6
14.0
Y/E March
Jun-12
Net Inc. (Incl. Secur) 7,821
YoY Growth (%)
16.0
Operating Profit
6,620
YoY Growth (%)
18.3
Provisions
1,420
Profit before Tax
5,200
Tax Provisions
1,727
Net Profit
3,473
YoY Growth (%)
20.2
AUM Growth (%)
22.3
Sec. Inc./Net Inc.(%) 62.3
GNPA (%)
2.7
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-12
8,347
19.3
6,818
20.4
2,363
4,454
1,460
2,994
0.2
Dec-12
8,038
4.5
6,465
5.5
1,920
4,545
1,518
3,027
0.4
Mar-12
8,056
5.4
6,529
4.1
1,918
4,610
1,530
3,081
-9.6
Jun-13
8,025
2.6
6,787
2.5
2,026
4,761
1,543
3,219
-7.3
FY12
31,707
9.5
26,492
13.0
7,683
18,809
6,235
12,574
4.5
FY13E
34,093
7.5
28,026
5.8
7,963
20,062
6,520
13,542
7.7
19.9
56.1
2.7
16.2
59.1
2.8
11.1
62.0
3.1
13.3
61.0
3.0
11.1
58.8
3.1
15.5
52.8
3.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
Shriram Transport Finance: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Financing Income
Finanancing charges
Net Financing income
Change (%)
Inc. from securitisation
Net Income (Incl Secur)
Change (%)
Other Income
Net Income
Change (%)
Employee Cost
Brokerage & Commission
Other Operating Exp.
Operating Income
Change (%)
Total Provisions
% to operating income
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
PAT
Change (%)
Proposed Dividend
2011
36,165
22,154
14,011
-4.8
14,943
28,954
34.5
1,725
30,680
36.4
3,582
752
2,892
23,454
35.5
5,235
22.3
18,219
6,190
34.0
12,028
37.8
1,468
2012
35,581
23,950
11,632
-17.0
20,075
31,707
9.5
2,423
34,130
11.2
3,701
662
3,275
26,492
13.0
7,683
29.0
18,809
6,235
33.1
12,574
4.5
1,471
2013E
42,325
27,379
14,946
28.5
19,147
34,093
7.5
2,181
36,273
6.3
4,163
662
3,422
28,026
5.8
7,963
28.4
20,062
6,520
32.5
13,542
7.7
1,625
2011
2,262
46,747
49,008
198,743
7.7
35
247,787
36,453
96.4
194,740
8.3
364
16,229
247,787
2012
2,263
57,660
59,923
231,219
16.3
22
291,164
39,544
8.5
214,378
10.1
377
36,864
291,164
2013E
2,263
69,301
71,564
330,407
42.9
22
401,993
43,499
10.0
309,391
44.3
402
48,701
401,993
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Capital
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Borrowings
Change (%)
Total Liabilities
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Net Fixed Assets
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
58,246
35,993
22,253
48.9
16,684
38,937
14.2
2,508
41,445
14.3
4,475
729
3,612
32,629
16.4
9,029
27.7
23,600
7,670
32.5
15,930
17.6
1,912
(INR Million)
2014E
2,263
82,994
85,257
427,337
29.3
22
512,617
47,849
10.0
389,341
25.8
402
75,025
512,617
Ratios
Y/E March
Avg. Yield-on Fin. portfolio
Avg Cost of funds
Int Spread on Fin.portfolio
NIM (incl Securitisation)
NIM (Excl Securitisation)
2011
18.7
11.6
7.1
8.9
7.5
RoE
RoA on AUM
2012
2013E
2014E
16.8
11.1
5.7
8.3
5.7
15.7
9.8
5.9
7.9
5.7
16.3
9.5
6.8
7.8
6.4
27.5
3.2
61.3
54.3
23.1
2.8
67.3
65.9
20.6
2.6
64.7
58.8
20.3
2.6
61.8
46.3
23.6
49.6
22.4
48.5
22.7
50.5
21.3
50.8
Loans/Borrowings Ratio
Leverage (x)
98.0
5.1
92.7
4.9
93.6
5.6
91.1
6.0
216.7
27.4
264.8
22.2
2.2
263.3
2.3
117.1
12.9
5.1
55.6
4.5
10.7
6.5
1.1
316.2
19.4
1.9
313.5
1.9
123.8
5.8
4.8
59.8
7.7
9.9
7.2
1.2
376.7
19.1
1.6
373.1
1.6
144.2
16.4
4.1
70.4
17.6
8.4
8.4
1.4
Valuations
Book Value (INR)
BV Growth (%)
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
OPS (INR)
OPS Growth (%)
Price-OP (x)
EPS (INR)
EPS Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Dividend
Dividend Yield (%)
215.5
103.7
35.1
53.2
37.4
6.5
145
Simplex Infrastructure
Company description

Incorporated in 1924, Simplex Infrastructures is the
largest pure play civil construction and engineering
contractors in India, with more than eight decades of
successful operations and completion of over 2500
projects in India and abroad. Simplex Infrastructures
has a presence across various construction verticals,
which include piling, industrial plants, power plants,
urban infrastructure and utilities, etc
Order backlog as at the end of June 2012 stood at
INR155b, in addition to the L1 of INR11.8b. Current
order book has 82% variable priced contracts and
18% fixed price contracts.
 SINF has a diversified business, with presence across
the infrastructure sector. It derives ~10% of the
order book from the Middle East, Asia and Africa,
and thus diversifying the geography mix. Private
sector orders, where payment terms are better,
constitute 60%+ of its order book.

Key challenges

In FY12, order intake was INR64.4b v/s INR80b in
FY11. BTB has declined from 3x in 4QFY11 to ~2.5x.
This could impact near-term revenue growth.
Stock info
SINF IN
49
207
0.2
290 / 157
-11 / -11 / -34
146
Simplex has recently forayed in to the road BOT
projects; and the company now has a portfolio of
three projects.
 Simplex has entered into joint-venture with
Gammon Infra for two projects - Vijaywada to
Gundugolanu (Ph V) and Mahulia to Kharagpur (Ph
III). Simplex would have 49-51% stake and would
be carrying out large parts of the EPC work for these
two projects.

Simplex reported revenue growth of 28% YoY, and
EBITDA increase of 19% YoY. Interest cost increased
from INR502m to INR695m YoY, impacting the
reported profitability. Debt stood at INR24b (up
from INR21b) in March 2012.
 Management expects revenues to increase by 1015% in FY13.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Indian infrastructure and industrial capex is passing
through a challenging phase given tight liquidity
condition and structural constraints like land,
resources, etc. This has impacted the opportunity
pie in the interim period.
Jun-12
55.0
19.7
13.8
11.6
Mar-12
55.0
18.9
14.4
11.8
Jun-11
54.7
20.6
13.0
11.7
Y/E March
Operating Income
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
PAT Margin (%)
Order book (INR b)
BTB (x)
Order intake (INR b)
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Jun-12
12,685
7.7
1,202
0.1
9.5
241
241
(33.6)
1.9
Sep-12
13,242
25.5
1,190
12.6
9.0
179
179
(33.5)
1.3
Dec-12
15,973
36.6
1,294
20.3
8.1
180
180
(22.3)
1.1
Mar-12
17,979
30.6
1,483
7.9
8.3
292
292
(21.0)
1.6
Jun-12
15,904
25.4
1,270
5.7
8.0
201
201
(16.5)
1.3
FY12
59,168
23.8
4,678
(0.6)
7.9
892
892
(27.6)
1.5
143
3.0
9
150
2.9
19
144
2.6
10
152
2.5
26
155
2.5
19
152
2.5
64
August 27 - 31, 2012
Simplex Infrastructure: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Materials Consumed
Other Admin. Exp.
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2010
44,427
-4.7
38,224
1,873
4,330
9.7
1,534
1,112
227
1,911
685
35.8
1,227
1,227
-6.9
Balance Sheet
2011
47,497
6.9
41,115
1,801
4,581
9.6
1,608
1,308
289
1,954
722
37.0
1,232
1,232
0.4
2012
59,068
24.4
53,638
751
4,679
7.9
1,143
2,303
100
1,333
441
33.1
892
892
-27.6
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
2010
99
9,597
9,696
13,024
883
23,604
2011
99
10,677
10,777
16,606
1,381
28,764
2012
99
11,971
12,070
20,932
1,944
34,945
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
12,509
2,832
9,677
187
277
14,764
3,715
11,049
275
492
17,420
4,805
12,615
444
783
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
30,598
6,593
17,928
873
3,868
1,337
36,847
7,978
22,834
795
3,833
1,408
48,478
8,682
16,788
428
6,102
16,478
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Key Operational Metric
Order Book (INR b)
BTB (x)
Order Intake (INR b)
E: MOSL Estimates
17,135
17,020
115
13,463
23,604
19,899
19,770
129
16,948
28,764
27,419
27,188
231
21,058
34,945
115
2.6
59
147
3.1
80
152
2.6
64
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
2010
2011
2012
24.8
-6.9
55.8
196.0
1.9
9.4
24.8
0.1
57.2
217.1
1.9
9.0
18.0
-27.3
41.1
243.0
1.4
9.1
9.0
3.9
5.9
0.6
1.0
0.9
12.4
5.4
6.7
0.5
0.9
0.6
Valuation (x)
P/E (standalone)
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
13.1
13.3
12.0
12.5
7.8
11.4
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
147
54
99
2.0
175
61
103
1.8
160
58
88
1.9
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
1.3
1.5
1.7
Y/E March
PBT before Extraordinary Items
Add: Depreciation
Interest
Less: Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
2010
1,911
1,534
1,112
685
-2,140
1,733
2011
1,954
1,608
1,308
722
-3,563
584
2012
1,333
1,143
2,303
441
-4,477
-139
(Inc)/Dec in FA
CF from Investments
-1,244
-76
-1,321
-3,069
-215
-3,283
-2,878
-291
-3,169
(Inc)/Dec in Networth
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Less: Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
-133
819
1,112
115
-541
457
3,582
1,308
110
2,621
991
4,333
2,303
81
2,939
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
-129
1,002
873
-78
873
795
-368
795
426
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
147
State Bank of India
Company description
Key challenges
State Bank of India (SBIN) is India's largest commercial
bank, with a standalone balance sheet size of over
INR14t+ and government of India ownership of ~62%.
The bank has strong liability franchises with 14,100+
owned branches (standalone), and 19,200+ branches
(group). SBIN along with its associate banks has ~25%
market share in India.

SBIN's branch expansion, technological
advancement and marketing efforts led to strong
CASA CAGR of ~17% over FY02-12. The power of its
liability franchise can be seen from its strong and
improving CASA ratio of ~46% of which 80%+ are
from highly granular Savings accounts deposits.
 Over the last two years, SBIN has reported
significantly higher net slippages as compared to
peers, leading to the perception of higher asset
quality issues. While reported net slippages have
been higher, restructured loans as a percentage of
overall loans are one of the lowest among public
sector banks (PSBs). Thus, SBIN outstanding net
stress loans stands at 5.5% of loans vs PNB of 9.8%,
BOI of 8.4% and BOB 6.9%
 Healthy NIM of 3.5%+, higher fee income
contribution as a proportion of average assets,
control over opex, and absence of one-offs will help
SBIN to post ROA of 1%+. Operating leverage
remains one of the key factor for RoA improvement.

Stock info
SBIN IN
671
1,896
22.8
2475 / 1576
-17 / -18 / -18
148
One of the biggest beneficiaries of upturn in
macroeconomic environment. Any concentrated
effort by Government to get rid of policy paralysis
and boost investment climate will be a key trigger
for SBIN
 Expected merger of one of associate bank with itself
in FY13

Guidance for FY13: Loan growth of 18-20%, Margins
of 3.75%, opex growth of less than 10% and
containing NNPA at 1.8%.
 Performance highlights of 1QFY13: (a) Significantly
higher slippages of INR108b led by SME, Midcorporate and Agri segment (b) fall in standard
restructured loans by INR15b (c) Higher slippages
led to sharp margin contraction of ~ 30bp QoQ (d)
fee income growth disappointed (e) continued
healthy traction in SA mobilization (+8% QoQ)

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Considering significant stress in the macroeconomic
environment, higher exposure to SME and mid
corporate segment, bad monsoon etc asset quality
is likely to remain under pressure
 Moderating top line growth with lower loan growth
and moderation in margins and higher credit cost
posses the threat to earnings growth.
 Provisioning related to wage negotiation to start
from November 2012.
Jun-12
61.6
17.3
11.2
10.0
Mar-12
61.6
17.1
11.4
9.9
Jun-11
59.4
17.4
13.9
9.3
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Int. Income
96,995
% Change (YoY)
32.8
Other Income
35,342
Operating Exp.
59,913
Operating Profit
72,424
% Change (YoY)
18.1
Other Provisions 41,569
Net Profit
15,835
% Change (YoY)
-45.7
NIM (%)
3.6
Loan Growth (%)
18.0
Gross NPA (%)
3.5
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
104,817
29.2
33,674
63,749
74,743
17.6
33,855
28,104
12.4
Dec-11
115,188
27.3
20,730
63,318
72,600
7.3
24,074
32,630
15.4
Mar-12
115,911
43.8
53,768
73,710
95,968
57.8
31,404
40,503
N.A.
Jun-12
111,189
14.6
34,988
64,410
81,767
12.9
24,563
37,516
136.9
FY12
432,911
33.1
143,514
260,690
315,735
24.6
130,902
117,073
41.7
FY13E
470,781
8.7
175,713
289,091
357,404
13.2
132,625
147,230
25.8
3.8
16.1
4.2
4.1
16.5
4.6
3.9
14.7
4.4
3.6
18.9
5.0
3.9
14.7
4.4
3.6
20.0
5.9
August 27 - 31, 2012
State Bank of India: Financials and valuation
(INR Billion)
Y/E March
2011
Interest Income
814
Interest Expense
489
Net Interest Income
325
Change (%)
37.4
Non Interest Income
158
Net Income
484
Change (%)
25.1
Operating Expenses
230
253
Change (%)
38.3
104
PBT
150
Tax
67
Tax Rate (%)
44.7
PAT
83
Change (%)
-9.8
Consolidated PAT post MI
107
Change (%)
-8.9
2012
1,065
632
433
33.1
144
576
19.2
261
316
24.6
131
185
68
36.7
117
41.7
153
43.6
2013E
1,204
733
471
8.7
176
646
12.2
289
357
13.2
133
225
78
34.5
147
25.8
185
20.6
2012
7
833
840
10,436
11.7
4,676
1.3
1,270
809
13,355
972
3,122
5.6
8,676
14.7
55
531
13,355
2013E
7
946
953
12,524
20.0
5,328
13.9
1,426
931
15,833
1,106
3,621
16.0
10,411
20.0
58
637
15,833
2014E
7
1,080
1,086
15,029
20.0
6,073
14.0
1,613
1,118
18,846
1,324
4,201
16.0
12,493
20.0
64
765
18,846
397
158
4.5
1.8
60.1
68.1
631
270
5.9
2.6
57.3
63.1
839
345
6.5
2.8
58.8
63.2
Balance Sheet
(INR Billion)
Y/E March
2011
6
Reserves & Surplus
644
Net Worth
650
Deposits
9,339
Change (%)
16.1
of which CASA Dep
4,615
Change (%)
21.4
Borrowings
1,196
Total Liabilities
12,237
Current Assets
1,229
Investments
2,956
Change (%)
-0.1
Loans
7,567
Change (%)
19.8
Fixed Assets
48
Other Assets
438
Total Assets
12,237
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR b)
NNPA (INR b)
GNPA Ratio
NNPA Ratio
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
1,376
835
541
14.9
200
741
14.7
325
417
16.6
152
265
91
34.5
174
17.9
221
19.5
Ratios
Y/E March
Avg. Yield on loans
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
2013E
2014E
9.2
10.0
7.9
5.7
5.6
3.6
3.8
9.0
9.7
7.9
5.7
5.7
3.3
3.5
8.7
9.3
7.4
5.5
5.4
3.2
3.4
12.7
0.7
13.5
0.7
16.0
0.9
17.2
0.9
16.9
1.0
17.3
1.0
17.4
1.0
18.0
1.0
Cost/Income*
49.5
66.1
73.9
3.9
* ex treasury and recoveries
45.3
65.1
82.2
5.3
46.2
64.9
96.4
6.8
45.2
64.5
113.1
7.8
1,215
19.8
1.6
1,541
18.3
1.2
1,050
1.8
1,321
1.4
174.5
34.0
10.9
228.6
35.9
7.9
35.0
1.8
1,384
13.9
1.4
1,766
14.6
1.0
1,103
1.7
1,403
1.3
219.4
25.8
8.6
275.7
20.6
6.5
43.0
2.3
1,583
14.3
1.2
2,035
15.3
0.9
1,222
1.6
1,585
1.1
258.6
17.9
7.3
329.3
19.5
5.4
51.3
2.7
RoE
RoA
Consolidated RoE
Consolidated RoA
2011
2012
8.0
8.6
6.7
5.0
5.0
3.0
3.2
Valuation
Book Value (INR)
BV Growth (%)
Price-BV (x)
Consol BV (INR)
BV Growth (%)
Price-Consol BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
Price-ABV (x)
Adjusted Consol BV
Price-Consol ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
EPS Growth (%)
Price-Earnings (x)
Consol EPS (INR)
Con. EPS Growth (%)
Price-Consol EPS (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
1,014
-1.4
1,303
0.4
878
1,129
130.2
-9.9
168.3
-9.0
30.0
(%)
253
123
3.3
1.6
51.2
65.0
149
Sun Pharmaceuticals
Company description
Expect Taro's high profitability (49% EBITDA margins)
to come off in coming quarters as competitors come
back in key product segments. Tax rate will go up in
FY13 due to imposition of MAT on partnership firms.
 Potential damages in the Protonix patent litigation
case in the US could be significant.

Sun Pharma has successfully transitioned from a
domestic company to establishing a strong presence in
the US. It has become the largest Indian company in the
US through the take-over of Taro. US (57% of sales),
India (22% of sales) and emerging markets (13% of sales)
are the key markets for Sun.

Significant scale-up & internationalization of
operations without dilution of return ratios has been
SUNP's key achievement over the last five years.
We expect the high return ratios to sustain in future
as well given the efficient capital allocation strategy
of the company. Its ability to sustain superior
margins even on a high base is a clear positive.
 An expanding generic portfolio coupled with
sustained double-digit growth in high-margin lifestyle segments in India is likely to bring in longterm benefits for SUNP.
 Has a strong launch pipeline for the US with 135
ANDAs pending US FDA approval including a
combination of low-competition & normal products.
 Price increases for some key Taro products in the US
have boosted the performance in the past 3-4
quarters.
1QFY13 highlights

Key challenges

Stock info
SUNP IN
1036
661
12.3
690 / 448
2 / 25 / 31
150
Performance was above estimates led by strong
traction at Taro, favourable currency & Doxorubicin
supplies to the US. Domestic sales recorded 8% degrowth due to extra sales booked in 4QFY12 while
RoW sales grew by 45% partly helped by currency.
 Core EBITDA at INR10.4b was higher than our est of
INR7.6b while core EBITDA margins were at 45%
compared to our estimate of 36%.
 Adj PAT growth was strong at 54% led mainly by
Taro and favorable currency.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Re-entry of competitors in US for some key Taro
products.
 Acceptance of the buy-out offer made by SUNP to
Taro's minority shareholders.
 Further progress in the Protonix litigation in the
US.
 More clarity on the recent proposal to transfer the
domestic business to a 100% subsidiary.
Jun-12
63.7
5.3
20.6
10.4
Mar-12
63.7
5.5
20.1
10.7
Jun-11
63.7
7.2
18.6
10.6
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11 Dec-11
18,946
21,451
Op. Inc.(ex one-offs)14,982
17,823
20,375
Change (%)
58.8
70.1
36.9
EBITDA
5,474
7,840
9,638
EBITDA(ex one-offs) 4,644
7,148
8,903
Change (%)
45.3
121.9
137.4
40.1
43.7
Reported PAT
5,010
5,977
6,683
Adj. PAT (ex one-offs)4,386
5,454
6,110
Change (%)
30.4
32.8
99.2
PAT Margin (%)
29.3
30.6
30.0
US
6,220
7,991
10,400
India
6,385
7,046
6,956
ROW
2,521
2,567
2,810
APIs
1,476
1,603
1,536
Others
2
4
17
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Mar-12
23,299
21,223
57.6
9,552
8,317
65.9
39.2
8,202
7,279
39.5
34.3
Jun-12
26,581
23,104
54.2
12,169
10,430
124.6
45.1
7,956
6,738
53.6
29.2
FY12
80,057
74,406
54.2
32,507
29,015
91.1
39.0
25,873
23,228
65.4
31.2
FY13E
99,348
95,870
28.8
38,401
36,663
26.4
38.2
30,503
27,058
16.5
28.2
10,106
8,767
3,226
1,531
8
15,411
5,877
3,666
2,002
18
34,716
29,154
11,124
6,147
31
45,857
32,825
14,983
6,889
41
August 27 - 31, 2012
Sun Pharmaceuticals: Financials and valuation
Consolidated Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Other Income - Rec.
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Profit after Tax
Less: Mionrity Interest
Net Profit
Adj. PAT
2011
57,214
39.5
19,700
34.4
2,041
17,659
577
3,276
20,358
1,284
6.3
19,074
913
18,161
14,041
(INR Million)
2012
80,057
39.9
32,507
40.6
2,912
29,595
282
4,240
33,554
3,826
11.4
29,727
3855
25,873
23,228
Y/E March
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Deferred Liabilities
Secured Loan
Unsecured Laon
Total Loans
Capital Employed
2013E
99,348
24.1
38,401
38.7
3,354
35,047
164
5,240
40,123
7,222
18.0
32,901
4626
28,275
27,058
2014E
110,895
11.6
39,057
35.2
3,639
35,417
164
6,416
41,670
7,501
18.0
34,169
4163
30,006
30,006
(INR Million)
2011
1,036
93,798
94,833
8,472
-3652
1,804
2,452
4,256
103,908
2012
1,036
120,628
121,664
11,615
-5199
1,644
1,096
2,739
130,818
2013E
1,036
141,834
142,870
16,240
-5199
1,644
1,096
2,739
156,650
2014E
1,036
163,738
164,774
20,403
-5199
1,644
1,096
2,739
182,718
25,234
2,706
7,720
22,310
30,210
2,706
10,218
22,129
31,855
2,706
10,218
22,129
32,716
2,706
10,218
22,129
Curr. Assets
60,172
Inventory
14,794
Account Receivables
11,716
L & A and Others
11,726
14,234
Net Current Assets
45,939
Appl. of Funds
103,908
90,506
20,870
19,261
33,672
16,703
24,950
65,556
130,819
121,003
22,355
21,775
56,460
20,414
31,262
89,742
156,650
152,426
27,854
24,306
77,479
22,787
37,477
114,949
182,718
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Y/E March
Total Domestic Sales
Export - Formulations
Taro
Caraco
Branded
Export - API & Others
2011
24,948
28,982
9,962
13,042
5,978
4,136
2012
30,340
45,841
22,128
12,588
11,124
4,992
2013E
34,059
60,840
27,619
18,238
14,983
5,696
2014E
40,017
66,072
26,036
20,168
19,868
6,271
Gross Sales
58,066
81,173
100,594
112,360
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Fully Diluted EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2013E
2014E
22.4
22.4
27.8
117.5
4.2
17.3
26.1
26.1
30.5
138.0
5.8
21.5
29.0
29.0
32.5
159.1
6.7
23.7
29.5
23.8
5.6
7.9
19.4
0.6
25.3
21.6
4.8
6.1
15.9
0.9
22.8
20.3
4.2
5.3
15.0
1.0
16.2
23.4
21.5
30.3
20.5
29.8
19.5
26.7
2.8
Debtor (Days)
75
Inventory (Days)
94
Working Capital T/O (Days) 293
2.9
88
95
299
3.2
80
82
330
3.4
80
92
378
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.6
13.6
19.5
91.6
3.5
22.1
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
0.0
2012
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) bef. Tax
Int./Dividends Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(INR Million)
2011
19,700
3,276
-4,046
-533
18,397
2012
32,507
4,240
-5,373
-7,882
23,493
2013E
38,401
5,240
-7,222
-1,398
35,021
2014E
39,057
6,416
-7,501
-4,188
33,785
(inc)/dec in FA
CF from investments
-16,864
8,354
-8,510
-10,386
181
-10,205
-5,000
0
-5,000
-4,500
0
-4,500
Change in networth
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
8,223
2,545
-577
-4,213
5,977
5,395
-1,517
-282
-5,149
-1,553
0
0
-164
-7,069
-7,233
0
0
-164
-8,102
-8,266
Inc/Dec of Cash
15,864
11,736
22,788
21,936
33,672
Closing Balance
21,936
33,672
56,461
Note: Cashflows do not tally due to acquisition
21,019
56,460
77,479
151
Tata Consultancy Services
Company description
TCS is the largest IT services company in India, with LTM
revenue of over USD9.3b. It employs over 243,000
people and provides IT and BPO services to over 900
global clients. It is one of the preferred IT vendors for
most Fortune 500/Global 1,000 companies.

BFSI is TCS's key vertical, contributing 43% to the
company's revenue (FY12), followed by Retail, which
contributed 12%.
Geographically, the company gets 53% of its revenues
from the US, 15% from UK, and 9% from India (all figures
based on FY12 mix).
On a high base, the company continues to post
industry leading volume growth even in a
challenging environment.
 Despite the prevailing macro headwinds, the
company's execution remains spectacular, and
outlook bullish.
 Traction for the company has been broad-based, the
company bagged 6 large deals across industries
 One of the largest players in IMS, the key growth
driver for the industry.

Stock info
TCS IN
1957
1,277
44.8
1287 / 897
4 / 7 / 22
152
Key challenges
Weak macro is making it more and more difficult to
grow revenue share from BFSI - where ?IT budgets
are down YoY
 Majority of incremental revenues in 1QFY13 came
of BPO. Continued growth skew in favor of lower
end services could hamper multiples/profitability.

TCS's broad-based execution defying any concerns
from the prevailing macro was the key highlight of
1QFY13 results
 For the quarter, BPO was the key driver of growth,
contributing 60% of the incremental revenues,
helped by Friends Life insurance platform deal
 While macro remains dynamic, the company
continues to see opportunities, orders in
transformation and in discretionary projects.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
The appreciation of the rupee and continued high
attrition could hamper profitability.

Sovereign default in Europe could bring about
freeze on spending as seen in 2009
 Any weakness in BFSI vertical could be a negative
trigger at current peer-leading valuations
Jun-12
74.0
6.7
14.6
4.7
Mar-12
74.0
7.2
14.0
4.8
Jun-11
74.1
8.1
12.8
5.0
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change - QoQ (%)
6.3
EBITDA
30,738
Reported PAT
23,804
Adjusted PAT
23,804
Change - QoQ (%) 63.1
PAT Margin (%)
22.0
Volume Growth
7.4
Headcount
202,190
Util. (incl. trainees) 76.2
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
116,335
7.7
30,310
11.6
26.1
24,390
24,390
-2.2
21.0
Dec-11
132,040
13.5
33,829
21.0
25.6
28,866
28,866
-9.2
21.9
Mar-12
132,593
0.4
40,921
(4.4)
30.9
29,324
29,324
55.1
22.1
Jun-12
148,687
12.1
39,117
10.8
26.3
32,806
32,806
20.6
22.1
FY12
488,938
31.0
144,177
28.9
29.5
106,384
106,384
22.8
21.8
FY13E
619,223
26.6
182,494
26.6
29.5
140,115
140,115
12.9
22.6
6.3
214,770
76.4
4.0
226,751
74.0
3.3
238,583
71.3
5.3
243,545
72.3
23.1
238,583
74.4
15.9
268,351
73.7
August 27 - 31, 2012
Tata Consultancy Services: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
Cost of Services
SG&A Expenses
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Minority Interest
PAT
Net Income
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
373,245
24.3
198,505
62,848
111,892
30.0
7,990
5,243
109,145
21,203
19.4
1,116
86,826
86,826
26.3
2012
488,938
31.0
258,773
85,988
144,177
29.5
9,036
4,041
139,182
31,688
22.8
1,110
106,384
106,384
22.5
Balance Sheet
2013E
619,223
26.6
326,331
110,398
182,494
29.5
10,271
11,941
184,164
43,420
23.6
1,553
139,191
139,191
30.8
2014E
708,798
14.5
381,202
126,157
201,439
28.4
11,609
11,299
201,129
46,360
23.0
1,553
153,216
153,216
10.1
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Preference shares
Minority Interest
Loans
Capital Employed
2011
1,957
250,432
252,389
1,000
4,663
10,718
268,771
2012
1,957
323,276
325,233
1,000
5,276
12,306
343,815
2013E
1,957
402,171
404,128
1,000
5,506
14,907
425,541
2014E
1,957
505,445
507,402
1,000
5,506
17,171
531,080
Gross Block
Less : Depreciation
Net Block
Other LT Assets
Investments
88,003
35,663
52,340
89,929
18,390
100,211
35,663
64,548
110,269
0
106,923
35,663
71,260
115,017
32,956
111,084
35,663
75,421
124,284
32,956
171,948
95,479
47,401
29,068
63,837
63,837
108,111
2
268,771
237,173
137,469
34,617
65,087
68,175
68,175
168,998
2
343,815
314,579
163,957
106,134
44,487
108,272
108,272
206,307
2
425,541
418,850
190,954
176,083
51,813
120,431
120,431
298,418
2
531,080
Curr. Assets
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Misc. Expenses
Y/E March
Volume Growth (%)
Headcount
Utilization*
*Including trainees
August 27 - 31, 2012
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
29.7
198,614
76.2
23.1
238,583
74.4
15.9
268,351
73.7
17.5
311,410
73.4
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
44.4
48.4
129.5
14.0
31.6
54.4
59.0
166.7
25.0
46.0
71.1
76.4
207.0
20.0
28.1
78.3
84.2
259.8
22.0
28.1
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
28.8
26.4
21.9
6.6
9.9
1.1
23.5
21.7
17.2
5.1
7.7
2.0
18.0
16.7
13.0
3.8
6.2
1.6
16.3
15.2
11.5
3.3
4.9
1.7
RoE
RoCE
37.4
42.2
36.7
44.1
38.1
44.8
33.5
39.7
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
81
87
89
7.9
8.4
9.1
* 1:1 bonus in FY07, accordingly ratios are adjusted
91
9.7
Cash Flow Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
CF from Operations
94,816 115,420
Cash for Working Capital 18,165
-73,671
Net Operating CF
112,981
41,748
2013E
149,462
34,208
183,670
2014E
164,825
-22,163
142,663
Net Purchase of FA
-53,633
Net Purchase of Invest. 19,409
-34,224
-41,584
18,390
-23,193
-21,732
-32,956
-54,688
-25,037
0
-25,037
Proc. from equity issues-11,155
Proceeds from LTB/STB
1,608
Dividend Payments
-32,058
Cash Flow from Fin.
-41,604
24,319
1,588
-57,246
-31,339
-14,268
2,601
-45,797
-57,465
0
2,265
-50,377
-48,112
Free Cash Flow
Net Cash Flow
59,348
37,152
165
-12,784
161,938
71,517
117,626
69,514
Opening Cash Bal.
Add: Net Cash
Closing Cash Bal.
Note: Cashflows do not
10,249
47,401
34,617
37,152
-12,784
71,517
47,401
34,617 106,134
tally due to acquisition
106,134
69,514
176,013
153
Tata Motors
Company description
Key challenges
Tata Motors is the largest commercial vehicle
manufacturer in India with 59% market share in MHCV
and 58% in LCVs. It also manufactures passenger car
vehicles and utility vehicles. In FY09, it acquired Jaguar
& Land Rover from Ford for USD2.5b. In FY12, JLR
contributed ~63% of TTMT's consolidated revenues and
~85% of its profit. This coupled with Tata Daewoo, makes
it a global player in the automobile industry.

JLR volumes to remain robust, driven by Evoque &
ramp up of operations in China. We factor in 16%
volume growth in FY13 to ~365,000 (vs. management
guidance of 370,000-380,000), with ~50% growth
driven by Evoque ramp-up.
 JLR on aggressive product development plan with
40 new product/refreshes planned over next 5 years,
including smaller Jaguar by CY14/15.
 Improving market mix, internal cost efficiencies,
sourcing from low cost countries and operating
leverage would offset higher cost pressures on JLR.
We expect JLR's normalized EBITDA margin to
decline by 70bp to 9.6% in FY13.
 Demand for LCVs in India is expected to remain
robust, despite slow down in M&HCV demand. We
model volume growth of 7% for CV business in FY13,
driven by 16% LCV volume growth and 7.5% degrowth in M&HCVs.

Stock info
TTMT IN
2708
240
11.7
321 / 138
3 / -9 / 49
154
Level of competitive intensity in global luxury car
market, with focus on incentives/discounts.
 Launch of new Range Rover in 1QCY13.
 Reduction in interest rates & pick-up in economic

JLR's realizations improved 3.2% QoQ, driven by
favorable mix. EBITDA margins declined by 10 bps
QoQ (+110bps YoY) to 14.5%, driven by higher
capitalization (~120bp QoQ) which off-set impact
of ~130bp QoQ higher cost. However, higher tax
restricted JLR's adj. PAT to GBP236m.
 S/A volumes declined by 4% YoY, as M&HCV
volumes declined ~25% YoY & PVs by ~10%, despite
~17% growth in LCV volumes. EBITDA margins
declined by 220bp QoQ (-150bp YoY) at 7.3%,
impacted by negative operating leverage.
 Maintained FY13 volume guidance of ~370,000 units
and EBITDA margins of ~15% for JLR. For domestic
operations, M&HCV volumes are expected to
remain under pressure, but momentum in LCV to
remain strong.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Given high operating leverage, slow-down in
demand coupled with adverse forex movement
could adversely impact JLR's profitability.
 Maintaining market share amidst increasing
competition in domestic M&HCV industry.
Jun-12
34.8
12.0
44.9
8.4
Mar-12
34.9
12.7
44.5
7.9
Jun-11
34.9
13.7
43.1
8.3
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11
Total Op Income
332.8
361.9
Growth (%)
23.0
26.9
EBITDA
42.4
45.0
EBITDA Margins (%)12.7
12.4
Growth (%)
7.1
12.6
Adj PAT
20.5
22.5
Growth (%)
(3.5)
6.4
JLR Vols ('000 units) 62.0
68.0
JLR EBITDA Margins (%)13.4
14.4
S/A Vols ('000 units)197.6
211.4
S/A EBITDA Margins (%)8.8
7.2
RM Cost (% of Sales) 78.0
78.6
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Dec-11
452.6
44.0
68.3
15.1
52.1
35.3
43.9
Mar-12
509.1
44.3
67.4
13.2
50.8
44.4
79.2
Jun-12
433.2
30.1
57.5
13.3
35.9
25.7
25.2
FY12
1,656.5
35.6
223.1
13.5
FY13E
1,956
18.1
252.8
12.9
125.6
38.5
111.5
-11.2
86.3
17.0
231.3
6.7
79.1
98.1
14.6
286.0
9.5
79.6
83.4
14.5
190.9
7.3
77.8
314.4
15.0
197.6
8.1
78.9
365.0
14.3
211.4
8.4
78.4
August 27 - 31, 2012
Tata Motors: Financials and valuation
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Depreciation
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Eff. Tax Rate (%)
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2011
1,221.3
-99.9
178.2
14.6
46.6
10.0
23.9
4.3
104.4
11.7
90.7
-99.4
(INR Billion)
2012
1,656.5
35.6
237.0
14.3
56.3
13.9
29.8
6.6
135.3
-0.3
125.6
38.5
2013E
1,956.0
18.1
268.2
13.7
69.3
15.4
29.9
6.8
156.0
30.5
111.5
-11.2
2012
6
327
387
3
-24
693
2013E
7
418
363
4
-24
761
Y/E March
Share Capital
Net Worth
Loans
Minority Interest
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
2014E
2,137.1
9.3
293.2
13.7
79.4
16.3
24.0
7.0
180.6
29.6
127.2
14.1
(INR Billion)
2011
6
192
304
2
15
512
318
117
36
25
507
141
65
114
178
491
279
113
100
16
512
2014E
7
526
355
5
-24
862
518
50
41
89
706
182
82
182
250
711
367
215
128
-5
693
624
60
41
90
735
230
123
89
292
788
413
214
161
-53
761
734
70
41
91
787
252
135
66
334
861
451
234
176
-74
862
2012
314.4
29.1
42,973
6.1
15.0
922.9
10.3
588,455
4.55
8.1
2013E
365.0
16.1
43,296
0.8
14.3
952.6
3.2
575,468
-2.21
8.4
2014E
398.7
9.2
43,729
1.0
14.3
1084.2
13.8
576,092
0.11
8.9
Y/E March
2011
JLR Vols ('000 units)
243.6
Growth (%)
25.6
JLR Realizations (GBP)
40,518
Growth (%)
20.4
JLR EBITDA Margins (%)
15.2
S/A Vols ('000 units)
836.6
Growth (%)
25.2
S/A Realizations (INR) 562,866
Growth (%)
5.63
S/A EBITDA Margins (%)
10.2
August 27 - 31, 2012
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
Normalized EPS ^
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
BV per share
DPS
Div. Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
28.4
27.3
15.4
-461.6
43.0
62.8
4.0
81.0
39.6
37.8
22.2
43.7
57.3
61.0
4.0
119.6
34.0
33.5
14.7
-33.8
55.1
67.7
4.5
68.0
38.8
38.3
17.2
16.7
63.0
69.4
5.0
77.6
8.8
5.6
5.2
0.8
4.0
1.7
6.3
4.2
3.7
0.5
2.3
1.7
7.1
4.3
3.6
0.5
1.9
1.9
6.2
3.8
3.3
0.5
1.5
2.1
47.3
26.5
38.4
27.0
26.6
27.0
24.2
25.6
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
20
42
83
2.4
18
40
81
2.4
23
43
77
2.6
23
43
77
2.5
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.7
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
(INR Billion)
Y/E March
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
CF after EO Items
2011
132
20
47
-14
-40
-29
107
2012
181
7
56
-38
89
-19
267
2013E
199
7
69
-48
-45
-15
163
2014E
214
7
79
-53
-2
-15
230
CF from Inv Activity
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
-81
10
-71
32
-11
-25
-10
-14
-189
-64
-252
15
83
-30
-15
54
-185
-1
-186
0
-24
-30
-17
-71
-200
-1
-201
0
-8
-24
-19
-51
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
22
87
110
68
110
178
-93
178
85
-23
85
62
155
Tata Steel
Company description
Tata Steel (TATA), the lowest cost steel producer in India,
has become the sixth largest steel maker in the world
after the acquisition of Corus. The combined entity has
its business spread over Europe, the UK, Asia, North
America and the rest of the world with 27mtpa capacity.
On a consolidated level, it has ~22% raw material
security and plans to increase it to 50-60%. Production
will increase to 34mtpa through brownfield expansions
in Jamshedpur and green-field projects in Orissa.
Further regulatory requirements in Europe and UK
are the additional challenges that Tata Steel Europe
(TSE) has to deal with.

Tata Steel is currently undergoing triennial
negotiations with trustee's of pension fund which
are expected to be completed in 2QFY13. This will
lead to further increase in net debt as it has to
contribute to the deficit.
Tata Steel India (TSI) saleable steel volumes will post
CAGR of 13% over FY12-14 t due to ongoing capacity
expansion to 10mtpa at Jamshedpur.
 Overseas investments in raw material assets are
expected to start generating cash flow in FY14.
 TSE restructuring initiatives such as up gradation of
plants, shutdown of old units and downsizing of
Manpower will increase its cost effectiveness going
forward.


Key challenges
Sluggish domestic steel demand, cheaper imports
and enhanced capacity of steel majors due to recent
pricing which will results in lower TSI margins.
 The European steel demand continues to remain
subdued leading to lower steel prices and margins.

Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
TATA IN
971
395
6.9
504 / 332
-6 / -14 / -21
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
156
Tata Steel adj. consolidated PAT increased 83% QoQ
to INR8b due to lower than expected loss at TSE
and other subsidiaries. Reported PAT of INR6b
included forex loss of INR1.97b. Actuarial loss of
INR14.5b has been adjusted in reserves and surplus.
 Tata Steel India EBITDA was 6% lower than estimate
at INR30b due to cost inflation. Realization (TSI) was
up 5% QoQ but volumes were down 10%.
 TSI EBITDA per ton remained flat due to cost
inflation on account of (1) increase in power rate
(2) freight and handling cost (3) pension
provisioning on account of change in discount rate.
Cost inflation is sticky and will put further pressure
on margins, in view of falling steel prices.
 TSE reported better than expected EBITDA per ton
of USD35/t due to higher prices and easing of cost
pressure.
Jun-12
31.4
28.7
15.8
24.1
Mar-12
31.4
28.3
16.2
24.1
Jun-11
30.6
26.3
19.7
23.4
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11
Operating Income 330,002 327,979
Change (%)
21.3
14.5
EBITDA
44,572
27,500
Change (%)
0.6
-25.1
8.4
Reported PAT
52,937
1,390
Adjusted PAT
19,846
2,124
Change (%)
5.3
-83.8
PAT Margin (%)
6.0
0.6
Sales (mt)
6.1
6.1
Realization (INR/ton)54,099 53,679
EBITDA/ton (USD/ton)163
98
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Dec-11
331,031
13.8
19,133
-44.1
5.8
-6,874
-6,027
-168.4
-1.8
Mar-12
339,986
0.5
31,788
-17.9
9.3
2,032
4,335
-63.3
1.3
5.8
56,683
64
6.2
54,660
102
Jun-12
FY12
FY13E
338,212 1,328,997 1,360,576
2.5
11.9
2.4
36,003 124,168 141,040
-19.2
0.9
2.8
10.6
9.3
10.4
5,170
49,485
28,471
7,949
20,279
32,744
-59.9
-61.4
61.5
2.4
1.5
2.4
5.7
59,544
116
24.3
54,759
107
24.0
56,647
110
August 27 - 31, 2012
Tata Steel: Financials and valuation
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Net Sales
1,187,531 1,328,997 1,360,576 1,430,516
Change (%)
16.0
11.9
2.4
5.1
EBITDA
159,956 124,168 141,040 152,119
% of Net Sales
13.5
9.3
10.4
10.6
44,148
45,167
54,492
54,979
EBIT
115,808 79,001
86,547
97,140
Finace cost
27,700
42,501
42,206
44,246
Other income
2,809
15,730
10,346
10,750
PBT before EO
90,917 52,231 54,688 63,644
EO income
30,103
33,619
-1,970
PBT after EO
121,020
85,850 52,718 63,644
Tax
32,459
36,365
24,247
17,923
Rate (%)
26.8
42.4
46.0
28.2
Reported PAT
88,561 49,485 28,471 45,721
Minority interest P/L
-603
-1,731
-640
-195
Share of asso. PAT
664
2,681
1,663
1,730
PAT (After MI & asso.)
89,827 53,898 30,774 47,646
Div. on Pref. /Hybrid Sec.
2,225
2,616
2,616
Adjusted PAT
59,724 18,054 30,127 45,030
Change (%)
-n/a-69.8
66.9
49.5
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
Share Capital
9,587
9,714
Reserves
346,226 420,672
Net Worth
355,814 430,386
Minority Interest
8,889
10,912
Total Loans
639,107 646,318
20,126
24,424
Capital Employed
1,023,936 1,112,039
2013E
2014E
9,714
9,714
434,236 465,117
443,950 474,831
10,271
10,076
646,318 646,318
24,424
24,424
1,124,963 1,155,649
Gross Block
981,023 1,133,047 1,253,047 1,373,047
Less: Accum. Deprn.
615,338 712,043 766,536 821,515
Net Fixed Assets
365,685 421,003 486,511 551,532
Capital WIP
135,508 200,397 200,397 200,397
Investments
46,881
26,229
26,229
26,229
Goodwill on consolid. 152,982 173,546 173,546 173,546
Other assets
87,181
84,833
84,833
84,833
Net Current Assets
235,699 206,031 153,447 119,112
Appl. of Funds
1,023,936 1,112,039 1,124,963 1,155,649
Y/E March
Forex Rate (INR/USD)
2011
45.6
2012
47.9
2013E
53.5
2014E
52
Realization (USD/ton)
Indian Business
918
Europe and other business 1158
986
1175
884
1108
862
1093
EBITDA (USD/ton)
Indian Business
374
Europe and other business 51
August 27 - 31, 2012
347
9
278
25
251
35
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE (pre-tax)
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Payables (Days)
Working Capital T/O (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Debt/Equity
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
62.3
138.3
211.4
12.0
21.9
18.6
97.4
264.4
12.0
74.6
31.0
85.4
278.4
12.0
45.3
46.4
103.7
310.2
12.0
30.3
6.4
2.9
1.9
0.7
5.5
3.0
21.3
4.1
1.5
0.7
7.3
3.0
12.8
4.6
1.4
0.7
6.9
3.0
8.5
3.8
1.3
0.7
6.7
3.0
40.5
13.2
7.8
9.1
11.4
8.8
15.8
9.6
46
74
53
67
41
70
51
61
42
70
50
62
42
70
50
62
4.2
2.5
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.1
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
EBITDA
159,956 124,168 141,040 152,119
Non cash exp. (income)
8,773
13,603
-1,251
-989
-71,749 11,590 -10,439 -11,880
Tax Paid
-32,351 -36,524 -24,247 -17,923
64,629 112,838 105,101 121,327
(Inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP -101,636 -119,586 -120,000 -120,000
4,164
Acquisition in subsidiaries -647
-1,970
Int. & Divident Income
3,518
6,194
10,346
10,750
Other investing activities 39,218
61,251
-37,254 -47,978 -111,624 -109,250
Interest & equiv. paid
45,568
37,874
-7,146
-31,366
44,930
6,045
-39,803
-11,639
-37,646
-83,043
-13,639
-42,206
-55,844
-13,639
-44,246
-57,885
(Inc)/Dec in Cash
Add: opening Balance
Closing Balance
72,305 -18,184 -62,367
67,878 140,183 122,000
140,183 122,000 58,976
-45,808
58,976
12,761
157
Titan Industries
Company description
Titan Inds is the largest specialty retailer with leadership
in watches (~45% of total market, 65% of organised
market) and branded Jewelry (~40% share), and largest
chain in Eyewear. It owns brands like Titan, Fastrack,
Sonata, Tanishq, Goldplus, Zoya, and Titan Eye+.
Titan is debt free with cash surplus of ~INR10.0b
(~INR4.3b excluding Gold Harvest scheme) and
operating ROE of 128%.
 Its watch business is likely to grow by 18-20% CAGR
led by strong brand, distribution and innovations in
design and segments.
 Tanishq is likely to add 15 stores in the next 15-18
months (6 in past 30 months) which would enable
sales growth given strong brand, contemporary
designs and quality assurance.
 Fastrack has emerged as Rs3.5-4b brand focused on
youth with products like watches, eyewear, bags,
belts, wallets and other accessories; this brand has
the potential to grow manifold in the coming 3/5
years.
overheads due to increased pace of store openings
and 3) rising competition from regional players.
 Maintaining leadership position in watches with
rising competition from small/regional players at
the lower end and premium global brands at the
high end.
 Sustaining profitable operations at the PE (Precision
engineering) SBU.

Key challenges

Jewelry business faces near term headwinds from
1) volatility in gold and diamond prices 2) higher
Stock info
TTAN IN
888
221
3.5
255 / 154
-4 / -2 / 0
158
Trend in gold and diamond prices can impact
consumer demand and profit margins.
 Poor consumer confidence and slowdown in spends
will impact sales growth.
 Breakeven in the eyewear business.

Jewelry volumes declined 21% due to high gold
prices and slowdown in consumer demand. Sales
grew 8% and EBIT grew 9%; margins remained flat
YoY at 10.2%.
 Watch business reported 14% sales growth (3%
decline in volumes) while Eyewear sales grew 6%
even as LTL sales growth remained under pressure
at 1%.
 We remain cautious on the jewellery volumes
considering the weak macroeconomic scenario.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
53.1
3.8
16.2
27.0
Mar-12
53.4
4.5
15.0
27.1
Jun-11
53.3
6.2
12.5
28.0
Y/E March
Jun-12
change (%)
61.3
EBITDA
1,921
Change (%)
72.7
Reported PAT
1,436
Adjusted PAT
1,436
Change (%)
76.9
PAT Margin (%)
7.1
Watches Sales (%) 24.2
Jewellery Volume (%)40.0
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-12
20,963
36.5
2,002
15.4
9.6
1,529
1,529
19.7
7.3
Dec-12
24,401
24.8
2,129
9.2
8.7
1,639
1,639
16.4
6.7
Mar-12
22,814
28.3
2,071
95.7
9.1
1,443
1,443
72.0
6.3
Jun-13
22,057
9.2
2,120
10.3
9.6
1,561
1,561
8.7
7.1
16.1
0.0
17.2
-5.0
27.0
-7.0
14.4
-21.0
FY12
88,384
35.5
8,329
42.2
9.4
6,001
6,048
39.5
6.8
FY13E
103,823
17.5
10,096
21.2
9.7
7,158
7,158
18.3
6.9
August 27 - 31, 2012
Titan Industries: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
65,209
Change (%)
39.5
Total Expenditure
59,353
EBITDA
5,856
Change (%)
53.5
Margin (%)
9.0
Depreciation
345
82
561
Profit before Taxes
5,990
Change (%)
80.4
Margin (%)
9.2
Tax
1,686
Deferred Tax
32
Tax Rate (%)
27.6
Profit after Taxes
4,336
Change (%)
65.8
Margin (%)
6.7
Reported PAT
4,336
2012
88,588
35.9
80,292
8,296
41.7
9.4
450
437
958
8,367
39.7
9.4
2,523
187
27.9
6,031
39.1
6.8
5,984
2013E
103,823
17.2
93,727
10,096
21.7
9.7
482
650
977
9,941
18.8
9.6
3,006
223
28.0
7,158
18.7
6.9
7,158
2012
888
13,611
14,499
59
-38
14,520
2013E
888
18,410
19,297
200
185
19,682
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Depn.
Net Fixed Assets
Intangibles
Capital WIP
Investments
2014E
123,199
18.7
110,915
12,284
21.7
10.0
533
700
1,304
12,354
24.3
10.0
3,776
280
32.8
8,858
23.8
7.2
8,858
(INR Million)
2011
444
9,810
10,254
677
15
10,946
2014E
888
24,557
25,445
200
465
26,110
6,089
3,393
2,696
135
194
91
7,614
3,818
3,796
110
150
161
8,989
4,250
4,739
60
150
161
10,164
4,747
5,416
25
150
161
Curr. Assets, L&A
34,224
Inventory
19,938
Account Receivables
1,137
Others
2,200
26,394
Current Liabilities
24,193
Provisions
2,201
Net Current Assets
7,830
10,946
Volume Growth (%)
Jewelry
12.6
Watches
9.2
E: MOSL Estimates
42,752
28,787
1,631
9,605
2,729
32,437
29,381
3,057
10,314
14,520
52,411
34,454
1,729
12,977
3,251
37,839
34,440
3,398
14,573
19,682
65,327
41,151
2,052
18,264
3,861
44,968
40,815
4,153
20,358
26,110
11.0
6.7
10.1
7.0
11.2
8.0
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout %
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
4.9
5.2
11.5
1.5
30.0
6.8
7.3
16.3
2.0
30.0
8.1
8.5
21.7
2.4
30.0
10.0
10.5
28.7
3.0
30.0
32.5
30.3
2.1
22.5
13.5
0.9
27.4
25.9
1.8
18.2
10.2
1.1
22.1
21.0
1.4
14.5
7.7
1.4
49.6
128.1
61.8
48.7
175.4
66.8
42.4
95.2
58.7
34.8
97.9
54.1
Debtor (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
6
6.0
7
6.1
6
5.3
6
4.7
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Y/E March
2011
5,990
Int./Div. Received
561
Depreciation and Amort.
345
Interest Paid
82
Direct Taxes Paid
1,686
Incr in WC
-6,445
CF from Operations
11,573
2012
8,367
958
450
437
2,523
3,827
2,988
2013E
9,941
977
482
650
3,006
887
6,857
2014E
12,354
1,304
533
700
3,776
499
9,216
0
524
15
-539
-47
1,456
69
-1,572
0
1,325
0
-1,325
0
1,140
0
-1,140
Incr in Debt
Dividend Paid
Others
-51
776
1,125
-1,952
-618
1,290
852
-2,760
141
1,818
483
-2,160
0
2,147
2,922
-5,069
Incr/Decr of Cash
Closing Balance
9,082
1,867
10,949
-1,344
10,949
9,605
3,372
9,605
12,977
5,287
12,977
18,264
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
P/BV
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
Operating RoE
RoCE
Cash Flow Statement
Extraordinary Income
Incr in FA
Investments
CF from Invest.
(INR Million)
159
UltraTech Cement
Company description
Key challenges
UltraTech Cement, is a subsidiary of Grasim, a part of
the Aditya Birla Group. Post merger of Grasim's cement
business, it is the largest cement company in India with
a total cement capacity of 50m ton with a pan-India
presence. It is the largest exporters of cement and
clinker from India. It also has ancillary businesses like
white cement and RMC.






UltraTech is a truly pan-India play without
concentration in any particular region, insulating it
from wide variation in regional demand and price
volatility.
Ongoing capacity addition to add ~10mt capacity by
1QFY14, taking total capacity to ~60mt.
Potential to increase throughput without incurring
major capex by increasing utilization and blending,
along with locational advantage, gives it the
flexibility to either export or sell in the domestic
market.
Product mix is expected to improve with lower
contribution from clinker as new grinding unit at
Gujarat commissions operations by 2QFY13.
UltraTech has well diversified fuel mix, with only
~53% dependence on domestic coal (~33% linkage
coal). Apart from domestic coal, it uses imported
coal (~33%) and pet-coke (~14%).
Stock info
UTCEM IN
274
1,717
8.4
1,737 / 980
5 / 19 / 63
160
Its brownfield expansion would commission
operations from 1QFY14 at both Raipur (4.8mt) &
Karnataka (4.4mt). Also, grinding unit at Pipava
(1mt) is expected to start operations in 2QFY13.
 Cement demand recovery over next 12-18 months,
 Outcome of the appeal against CCI order in the
appellate tribunal on alleged cartelization.

Volumes at 10.33mt (+5% YoY, -10% QoQ). Grey
cement realizations estimated to improve ~6% QoQ
(~10% YoY) to INR4,124/ton.
 EBITDA at INR12.9b and EBITDA/ton of INR1,235
(+INR154/ton QoQ, +INR44/ton YoY), driven by
higher realizations and in-line cost.
 It has further increased capex by INR10b to INR120b,
with incremental capex towards modernization and
RMC business.
 Expects industry to grow over 8% and surplus
scenario to continue for next 3 years.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Being largest exporter of cement, its earnings are
sensitive to export volumes & realizations.
 Consol net debt of INR18.8b as of Mar-12.
Jun-12
63.3
4.8
22.1
9.8
Mar-12
63.3
5.5
20.6
10.6
Jun-11
63.4
7.8
16.4
12.5
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
9.1
EBITDA
11,882
Change (%)
18.9
Reported PAT
6,831
Adjusted PAT
6,831
Change (%)
22.5
PAT Margin (%)
15.7
Volume (mt)
9.86
Realiz.(INR/t)
3,749
EBITDA (INR/T)
1,190
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
39,101
21.6
5,837
43.1
14.9
2,790
2,790
141.0
7.1
Dec-11
45,681
23.0
9,647
36.3
21.1
6,169
5,695
78.5
12.5
Mar-12
53,366
18.9
12,641
22.2
23.7
8,673
8,673
19.3
16.3
Jun-12
50,748
16.6
12,918
8.7
25.5
7,784
7,784
14.0
15.3
FY12
181,664
37.6
40,007
56.3
22.0
24,462
23,982
70.8
13.2
FY13E
212,698
17.1
49,964
24.9
23.5
30,880
30,880
28.8
14.5
9.22
3,507
624
10.11
3,759
940
11.54
3,894
1,080
10.33
4,124
1,235
40.7
3,738
969
43.8
4,083
1,126
August 27 - 31, 2012
UltraTech Cement: Financials and valuation
Income Statement (Post-Merger)*
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
132,062
Change (%)
87.3
EBITDA
25,597
Margin (%)
19.4
Depreciation
7,657
Int. and Finance Charges 2,725
Other Income - Rec.
2,619
EO Expense/(Income)
0
PBT after EO expense
17,833
Tax Rate (%)
21.3
Adj PAT
14,042
Change (%)
28.4
(INR Million)
2012
181,664
37.6
40,007
22.0
9,026
2,239
4,520
-666
33,929
27.9
23,982
70.8
Balance Sheet (Post-Merger) *
2013E
212,698
17.1
48,808
22.9
9,118
2,135
4,900
0
42,455
29.0
30,143
25.7
2014E
246,819
16.0
56,566
22.9
12,010
2,226
4,750
0
47,080
29.0
33,427
10.9
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
2011
2,740
106,660
17301
26,373
150,334
2012
2,741
128,598
17378
38,117
184,093
2013E
2,741
154,920
19925
38,117
212,961
2014E
2,741
183,570
22750
33,117
239,436
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
114,003
6,831
37,303
116,342
18,968
37,888
132,192
50,000
19,475
180,181
25,000
21,475
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal
Others
Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
41,809
19,565
6,023
1,448
14,773
49,612
43,877
5,735
-7,803
150,334
56,235
20,359
7,660
1,882
26,334
45,340
37,132
8,207
10,895
184,093
63,158
26,223
8,741
1,971
26,223
51,863
43,122
8,741
11,295
212,961
72,963
30,430
10,143
1,960
30,430
60,183
50,040
10,143
12,779
239,436
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Capacity (mt)
48.8
48.8
49.8
60.0
Dispatches (mt)
35.2
41.3
44.4
49.2
Growth (%)
74.0
17.4
7.5
10.8
Realizations (INR/t)
3798
4460
4857
5083
EBITDA (INR/Ton)
727
969
1100
1150
EBITDA Margins (%)
19.4
22.0
22.9
22.9
E: MOSL Estimates; * Assuming merger w.e.f July 1, 2010
Ratios (Post-Merger) *
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
51.2
79.2
389.2
6.0
13.6
87.5
120.4
469.2
8.0
10.4
110.0
143.3
565.3
12.0
12.7
122.0
165.8
669.8
15.0
14.3
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton (Cap-US$)
Dividend Yield (%)
33.5
21.7
4.4
3.5
17.9
168
0.3
19.6
14.3
3.7
2.6
11.7
172
0.5
15.6
12.0
3.0
2.3
10.0
175
0.7
14.1
10.4
2.6
1.9
8.5
144
0.9
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
18.4
21.1
20.4
23.7
21.3
24.8
19.8
24.1
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtor (Days)
Inventory (Days)
0.9
17
54
1.0
15
41
1.0
15
45
1.0
15
45
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
2011
25,597
2,619
-3,791
10,146
34,571
34,571
2012
40,007
4,520
-9,390
-18,264
16,873
17,539
2013E
48,808
4,900
-9,765
-310
43,633
43,633
2014E
56,566
4,750
-10,828
-1,496
48,992
48,992
(inc)/dec in FA
CF from investments
-76,480
-20,608
-97,088
-23,502
-584
-24,087
-56,000
18,412
-37,588
-35,000
-2,000
-37,000
Issue of Shares
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
57,436
10,327
-2,725
-1,911
63,127
24
11,744
-2,239
-2,548
6,981
0
0
-2,135
-3,822
-5,956
0
-5,000
-2,226
-4,777
-12,003
611
837
1,448
434
1,448
1,882
89
1,882
1,971
-11
1,971
1,960
Cash Flow Statement (Post-Merger) *
Y/E March
Op. Profit/(Loss) bef.Tax
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
CF from Oper. incl EO Exp.
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
August 27 - 31, 2012
(INR Million)
161
Union Bank of India
Company description
Key challenges
Union Bank is a state-owned bank with a balance sheet
size of over INR2.6t. The government holds 54% in the
bank. UNBK has a pan- India presence, with a higher
concentration in the western region, with 3,300+
branches and 4,100+ ATMs

UNBK has been able to deliver margins of 3%+
despite higher slippages (which led to higher
interest income reversal) and tight liquidity
condition which is impressive (FY12 NIM was at
3.2%; down just 10bp YoY). Management expects to
maintain margin of 3% going forward led by fall in
cost of funds and improvement in asset quality. Loan
CAGR is expected to be 17% over FY13/14 which
would lead to NII CAGR of 14% over the same period.
 UNBKS core fee income to average assets of ~40bp
remains low as compared to its peers. However
increased focus of the management has started
yielding results as a consequence YoY fee income
growth has improved to 17% in 1QF13 v/s 14% for
FY12 and 4% in FY11. Continuous traction in fee
income would provide cushion if pressure on asset
quality increases.
 UNBK is highly leveraged to macro-economic
environment given the asset quality pressure it has
witnessed over past two years. As macro-economic
environment improves and liquidity condition
eases, concerns over asset quality would abate and
could lead to re-rating of the stock.

Stock info
UNBK IN
551
164
1.6
274 / 156
-22 / -35 / -43
162

One of the biggest beneficiaries of upturn in
macroeconomic environment. Any concentrated
effort by Government to get rid of policy paralysis
and boost investment climate will be a key trigger
for UNBK.
Performance highlights of 1QFY13: (a) Slippages
rose significantly to INR16.3b v/s INR6.1b in 4QFY12.
(b) UNBK restructured INR16.4b in 1QFY13, of which
INR12b was on account of restructuring of one SEB
account. (c) NIM declined 25bp QoQ to 3% (d) CASA
ratio stable at 31%, (e) Fee income grew 17% YoY
 Management guidance: (a) Quarterly run-rate of
slippages to be in the range of INR6-8b (b) Further
restructuring of INR26-30b expected over next few
quarters (c) Margin to be 3%+ (d) Loan growth to be
16-18% for FY13.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Volatile asset quality performance, uncertainty of
further deterioration in the macroeconomic
environment and expectation of higher
restructuring will remain an overhang.
 Despite equity infusion of INR7.6b over FY11/12,
core Tier I ratio of the bank stood at 7.7% which
would result into higher equity infusion
requirement in coming years specifically under
Basel III regime.
Jun-12
54.4
19.6
9.5
16.5
Mar-12
54.4
18.9
9.6
17.1
Jun-11
57.1
12.8
14.3
15.8
Y/E March
Jun-11
NII
15,902
Change (%)
18.0
Other Income
4,840
Opex
9,084
Operating Profit
11,658
Change (%)
11.7
Provisions
4,284
PAT
4,644
Change (%)
-22.8
NIM (%)
3.1
Loan Growth (%)
16.7
GNPA (%)
2.6
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
16,611
8.2
5,009
9,571
12,050
6.6
6,228
3,524
16.2
Dec-11
17,809
10.2
5,921
10,889
12,841
1.8
9,727
1,970
-66.0
Mar-12
18,766
9.3
7,554
10,332
15,988
83.9
5,172
7,732
29.4
Jun-12
18,217
14.6
4,912
10,459
12,671
8.7
5,185
5,116
10.2
FY12
69,089
11.1
23,324
39,875
52,538
22.0
25,410
17,871
-14.2
FY13E
79,471
15.0
23,493
45,365
57,598
9.6
22,956
23,383
30.8
3.2
16.5
3.5
3.3
16.8
3.3
3.3
18.3
3.0
3.0
19.5
3.8
3.2
18.3
3.0
3.2
14.8
3.9
August 27 - 31, 2012
Union Bank of India: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
Interest Income
164,526 211,443
Interest Expense
102,364 142,354
Net Interest Income
62,162
69,089
Change (%)
48.3
11.1
Non Interest Income
20,388
23,324
Net Income
82,550
92,413
Change (%)
33.9
11.9
Operating Expenses
39,500
39,875
43,050
52,538
Change (%)
17.6
22.0
13,496
25,410
PBT
29,554
27,128
Tax
8,735
9,256
Tax Rate (%)
29.6
34.1
PAT
20,819
17,871
Change (%)
0.3
-14.2
Profits for Equity SH
20,768
17,766
Core PPP*
36,286
44,590
Change (%)
25.0
22.9
Balance Sheet
2013E
259,439
179,969
79,471
15.0
23,493
102,963
11.4
45,365
57,598
9.6
22,956
34,642
11,259
32.5
23,383
30.8
23,276
51,098
14.6
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
5,243
5,505
Preference Share Capital 1,110
1,110
Reserves & Surplus
121,292 139,715
Net Worth
127,645 146,331
Of which Equity Networth 126,535 145,221
Deposits
2,024,613 2,228,690
Change (%)
19.1
10.1
of which CASA Dep
643,072 697,051
Change (%)
19.2
8.4
Borrowings
133,160 179,095
67,999
Total Liabilities
2,359,844 2,622,114
Current Assets
200,984 156,751
Investments
583,991 623,636
Change (%)
7.3
6.8
Loans
1,509,861 1,778,821
Change (%)
26.5
17.8
Fixed Assets
22,928
23,358
Other Assets
42,080
39,549
Total Assets
2,359,844 2,622,114
2013E
5,505
1,110
157,144
163,760
162,650
2,585,280
16.0
747,480
7.2
210,534
81,135
3,040,709
177,074
748,363
20.0
2,045,644
15.0
24,147
45,481
3,040,709
2014E
5,505
1,110
176,941
183,556
182,446
3,050,630
18.0
849,963
13.7
246,006
97,138
3,577,331
225,576
860,617
15.0
2,413,860
18.0
24,975
52,303
3,577,331
80,304
48,055
3.86
2.35
40.2
54.7
114,236
69,951
4.65
2.90
38.8
50.0
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR M)
36,228
NNPA (INR M)
18,034
GNPA Ratio
2.37
NNPA Ratio
1.19
49.0
67.6
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
291,512
201,921
89,592
12.7
27,450
117,041
13.7
49,677
67,365
17.0
27,253
40,111
13,638
34.0
26,474
13.2
26,366
59,615
16.7
Ratios
Y/E March
Avg. Yield on loans
Interest Spread
Net Interest Margin
2013E
2014E
9.3
9.7
7.6
6.2
6.3
3.0
3.0
9.8
10.5
7.8
6.9
7.1
2.9
3.0
9.4
10.0
7.8
6.6
6.7
2.8
2.9
20.9
1.0
62.2
16.5
24.7
14.8
0.7
67.3
16.6
25.2
16.8
0.8
69.4
16.5
22.8
16.7
0.8
69.3
16.8
23.5
50.7
65.8
115.8
7.5
45.3
62.2
122.3
5.8
45.6
62.8
133.6
7.2
44.1
62.0
149.2
7.8
74.6
31.8
28.8
79.6
13.0
8.7
79.8
31.3
28.0
80.9
11.9
8.4
79.1
28.9
28.9
89.8
12.1
8.7
79.1
27.9
28.2
92.2
11.4
8.3
Book Value (INR)
211.3
Change (%)
21.2
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
189.0
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
39.6
Change (%)
-3.6
Price-Earnings (x)
8.0
Dividend Yield (%)
235.9
11.6
0.7
200.2
0.8
32.3
-18.5
5.1
8.0
4.9
268.3
13.7
0.6
211.6
0.8
42.3
31.0
3.9
8.5
5.2
305.0
13.7
0.5
222.4
0.7
47.9
13.3
3.4
9.6
5.8
RoE
RoA
Cost/Income*
* ex treasury
Loans/Deposit Ratio
CASA Ratio
CAR
Tier 1
2011
2012
8.5
8.9
7.1
5.2
5.1
3.3
3.2
Valuation
(%)
54,499
30,250
3.02
1.70
43.1
62.2
163
Voltas
Company description
Key challenges
A Tata Group company, Voltas is the second largest airconditioning company in India. The company has three
segments, Electro-mechanical Projects (EMP, 60% of
sales), Unitary cooling (30%) and Engg Products (10%).
Voltas has significant presence in Middle-East airconditioning market, the region accounting for 65% of
the current orderbook.


Voltas is a strong player in the Middle-East HVAC
market, and derives 60% of MEP revenues from the
region. While demand has stagnated in recent times
impacted by global uncertainty and unrest in the
region, the company stands to significantly benefit
from a pickup in demand in Middle-eastern
economies.
 The HVAC market in India, estimated at around
INR60b, has a potential to grow at an accelerated
pace over next five years, as industrial and
infrastructure investments pick up. Voltas, second
largest player after Bluestar, stands to gain from the
opportunity.
 Voltas has nearly 20% market share in room ac
segment (part of unitary cooling) and stands to gain
from growing demand for room air-conditioning
driven by increasing power availability and
increasing living standard.

Stock info
VOLT IN
331
113
0.7
133 / 72
-5 / 1 / -14
164
Orders from Middle East, particularly Qatar and UAE.
Ordering from Indian infrastructure space,
particularly Airports and Railways.
 Any news on Government incentives for setting up
cold storages.

1QFY13 results highlights/guidance
Voltas reported robust growth in revenues during
1QFY13, up 20% YoY led by UCP segment, up 35%
YoY while profitability continued to remain under
pressure. EBITDA margins declined by 240bp YoY.
The companies' order book stood at INR 45.7b with
a BTB (x) of 1.5x annualized 1QFY13 revenues.
 The management expects the international order
flows to pick up, especially from Abu-Dhabi and
Qatar, while on the domestic front the overall macro
environment is still uncertain. The Engineering
products division is likely to be under pressure as
textile and mining business are both facing
tremendous pressures due to macro environment.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Increasing competitive intensity in domestic and
overseas HVAC market.
 Maintaining market share in highly competitive and
crowded unitary cooling (Room AC) market.
 Profitability in overseas orders is impacted by cost
over runs.
Jun-12
30.2
27.0
21.5
21.4
Mar-12
30.2
26.8
20.8
22.3
Jun-11
30.6
29.8
19.2
20.5
Y/E March
Jun-11
Operating Income
13,458
Change (%)
(4.1)
EBITDA
1,062
Change (%)
(13.2)
EBITDA Margin (%)
7.9
Reported PAT
1,318
Adjusted PAT
504
Change (%)
(46.4)
PAT Margin (%)
3.7
Order book (INR m)
45,530
BTB (x)
1.7
MEP Segment EBIT Margin (%) 4.6
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
11,019
3.6
76
(92.8)
0.7
419
169
(77.4)
1.5
Dec-11
11,539
11.0
766
(66.4)
6.6
(1,154)
611
10.8
5.3
Mar-12
15,735
(5.8)
1,356
(55.5)
8.6
1,038
1,013
8.5
6.4
Jun-12
16,116
19.8
887
(79.9)
5.5
788
777
54.3
4.8
FY12
51,750
(0.0)
3,258
138.6
6.3
1,621
2,295
(27.6)
4.4
44,610
1.5
0.7
50,940
1.5
7.3
42,920
1.2
8.3
45,740
1.5
4.5
42,920
1.3
5.4
August 27 - 31, 2012
Voltas: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2009
Total Revenues
43,259
Change (%)
35.1
Raw Materials
31,685
Staff Cost
4,656
Other Expenses
4,087
EBITDA
2,831
% of Total Revenues
6.5
Depreciation
210
Other Income
962
Interest
128
PBT
3,456
Tax
1,172
Rate (%)
33.9
Adjusted PAT
2,258
Extra-ordinary Income (net) 261
Reported PAT
2,519
Change (%)
28.2
2010
47,575
10.0
32,876
5,450
4,653
4,596
9.7
214
785
98
5,068
1,472
29.1
3,560
250
3,810
57.7
Balance Sheet
2011
51,768
8.8
36,808
5,563
4,990
4,408
8.5
210
810
165
4,843
1,729
35.7
3,170
402
3,572
-10.9
2012
51,750
0.0
37,800
5,995
4,698
3,258
6.3
340
1,092
314
3,696
1,401
37.9
2,296
-675
1,622
-27.6
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Capital Employed
2009
331
7,567
7,674
1,814
-224
9,647
2010
331
10,521
10,649
352
-202
11,140
2011
331
13,286
13,465
1,381
-152
15,064
2012
331
14,448
14,536
2,234
-242
16,940
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
3,986
1,839
2,148
132
1,562
3,890
1,821
2,069
193
2,339
4,410
1,987
2,422
36
2,613
4,928
2,197
2,730
91
3,116
Curr. Assets
27,489
Inventory
11,194
Debtors
9,521
Cash & Bank Balance
4,571
Loans & Advances
2,203
Other Assets
0
Creditors
11,782
Other Liabilities
7,961
Provisions
2,617
Net Current Assets
5,129
9,647
Key Operational Metrics
Order book (INR m)
47,180
BTB (x)
1.7
MEP segment EBIT mar. (%) 7.7
Working Capital days
5
E: MOSL Estimates
28,249
11,441
10,060
4,689
2,055
5
35,310
16,183
11,705
4,980
2,440
2
34,066
16,442
11,668
2,710
3,246
0
11,122
8,708
2,645
5,774
11,140
13,383
9,692
3,157
9,077
15,064
13,573
6,863
2,790
10,839
16,940
46,530
1.5
9.9
8
48,870
1.6
7.9
29
42,920
1.3
5.4
57
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
2009
2010
2011
2012
6.8
18.5
23.2
1.6
24.6
10.8
21.3
32.2
2.0
20.3
9.6
23.0
40.7
2.0
21.6
6.9
17.6
44.0
2.0
47.6
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
13.8
5.1
9.5
0.6
4.1
1.7
8.7
4.4
5.3
0.5
2.9
2.1
9.8
4.1
5.6
0.5
2.3
2.1
13.5
5.3
8.4
0.5
2.1
2.1
RoE
RoCE
32.3
29.3
35.1
34.9
25.8
25.0
15.5
15.6
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
80
94
99
3.9
77
88
85
3.2
83
114
94
3.1
82
116
96
2.9
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
2009
3,456
210
128
1,204
(1,718)
871
2010
5,068
214
98
1,451
(527)
3,403
2011
4,843
210
165
1,678
(3,012)
528
2012
3,696
340
314
1,401
(4,031)
-1,083
EO Income
261
CF from Oper. Incl. EO Items 1,133
250
3,653
402
929
-675
-1,757
(Inc)/Dec in FA
(591)
CF from Investments
(244)
(196)
(777)
(1,062)
(406)
(274)
(832)
23
(503)
(453)
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Less: Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
350
1,077
128
619
680
(141)
-1,463
98
772
(2,474)
(163)
1,030
165
771
(70)
177
853
314
771
(55)
Inc/Dec of Cash
Closing Balance
1,569
3,002
4,571
118
4,571
4,689
27
4,689
4,980
(2,266)
4,980
2,710
Cash Flow Statement
August 27 - 31, 2012
Y/E March
PBT before EO Items
Add: Depreciation
Interest
Less: Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(INR Million)
165
Wipro
Company description
Key challenges
Wipro is the third largest Indian IT services company
and the largest third-party BPO operator in India. It is
the largest third-party R&D services provider globally,
employing over 138,000 employees. It offers among the
widest range of IT and ITeS services and its corporate
governance and transparency are at the highest level
in the industry.

Wipro has a balanced vertical spread - BFSI (27%),
Manufacturing and Hi-Tech (19%) Global Media and
Telecom (16%) and Retail and Transportation (15%)
being the key revenue sources.

Geographically, Americas contributes 52% to revenues
(FY12) and Europe contributes 28%. India & Middle East
constitute 9% of revenues.
Risk pricing in FPP projects could go wrong (45.6%
revenues from FPP in 1QFY13).
 Increased investments in the pursuit for growth will
keep margins muted in the near term. Margin
recovery will be hit if growth challenges persist
over the medium term.
Wipro has won a multi-year engagement with a
leading communication service provider in North
America, to provide technical support services and
in future, enable a set of IT and Operations
transformation initiatives.
 If volumes growth does not pick up, the company
could witness further pressures on its valuation
relative to peers like Infosys.
It is the largest player in infrastructure management
services (IMS), the fastest growing service line for
Indian IT companies.
 It has a strong presence in domestic and emerging
markets, growing ahead of developed markets.
 Post restructuring, company has seen impressive
client additions and mining of large clients to
increase its number of customers in the higher
contribution buckets (USD100m+ clients up from 1
to 8 in 6 quarters).

Stock info
WPRO IN
2460
354
15.6
453 / 310
-6 / -18 / -2
166
Weak 2Q guidance (0.3-2.3% QoQ USD revenue
growth) on the top of soft 1Q more than dent any
expectations of restructuring exercise bearing fruit
in FY13. Muted guidance was on account of
continued weakness in Investment Banks and India
region.
 Continued investment in hunters and ~180bp
negative impact from wage hikes bode negatively
for near term margins.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
78.4
3.5
9.3
8.9
Mar-12
78.4
3.4
9.3
8.9
Jun-11
79.2
3.7
8.0
9.0
Y/E March
Jun-11
Change (%)
3.2
EBITDA
17,290
Change (%)
1.3
Reported PAT
13,349
Adjusted PAT
13,349
Change (%)
(2.9)
PAT Margin (%)
15.6
Volume growth
1.8
Headcount
126,490
Util. (incl. trainees) 76.9
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
90,945
6.2
17,397
0.6
19.1
13,009
13,009
(2.5)
14.3
Dec-11
99,972
9.9
19,843
14.1
19.8
14,564
14,564
12.0
14.6
Mar-12
98,691
(1.3)
19,611
(1.2)
19.9
14,809
14,809
1.7
15.0
Jun-12
106,530
7.9
21,426
9.3
20.1
15,802
15,802
6.7
14.8
FY12
375,248
20.7
74,141
12.5
19.8
55,731
55,731
5.2
14.9
FY13E
436,439
16.3
82,991
11.9
19.0
61,966
61,966
11.2
14.2
6.0
131,730
76.1
1.8
136,734
73.5
0.8
135,920
74.1
0.8
138,552
75.5
11.5
135,920
75.1
6.9
147,447
75.6
August 27 - 31, 2012
Wipro: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
Operating Costs
SG&A
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
EBIT
Margins
Other Income
Income from Eq. Inv.
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Minority Interest
PAT bef EO
Extraordinary items
Net Income
Change (%)
(INR Million)
2011
310,986
14.7
204,639
40,467
65,880
21.2
8,211
57,669
18.5
4,718
648
63,035
9,896
15.7
53,139
-345
52,794
182
52,976
15.3
2012
375,248
20.7
253,045
48,062
74,141
19.8
10,129
64,012
17.1
5,404
333
69,749
13,762
19.7
55,987
-256
55,731
0
55,731
5.2
2013E
436,439
16.3
292,945
60,502
82,991
19.0
11,078
71,913
16.5
6,222
-408
77,728
15,373
19.8
62,354
-388
61,966
0
61,966
11.2
Y/E March
2011
Share Capital
4,908
Reserves
234,772
Net Worth
239,680
Minority Interest&others 13,710
Loans
52,802
Capital Employed
306,192
2012
4,917
280,397
285,314
10,492
58,958
354,764
2013E
4,920
322,915
327,835
10,369
63,895
402,098
2014E
4,920
374,883
379,803
10,369
63,888
454,060
Gross Block
99,346
Less : Depreciation
44,252
Net Block
55,094
Investments
49,282
Intangible Assets
58,369
Other non current assets 22,682
Curr. Assets
186,016
Debtors
85,776
Inventories
9,707
Cash & Bank Balance
61,141
Adv., Other Current Assets 29,392
65,251
Net Current Assets
120,765
306,192
113,369
54,381
58,988
41,961
72,166
27,897
234,989
110,353
10,662
77,666
36,308
81,237
153,752
354,764
122,894
54,381
68,513
70,105
79,053
30,180
263,620
131,559
13,153
72,966
45,942
109,373
154,247
402,098
138,894
54,381
84,513
70,105
79,053
31,835
309,561
143,537
14,261
100,109
51,654
121,007
188,555
454,060
Balance Sheet
2014E
473,218
8.4
321,771
62,868
88,578
18.7
12,011
76,567
16.2
7,307
-408
83,466
16,775
20.1
66,691
-388
66,303
0
66,303
7.0
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
Volume Growth (%)
16.8
11.5
6.9
12.1
122,385
135,920
147,447
166,007
77.0
75.1
75.6
76.2
Headcount
Utilization (%)
*Including trainees
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout %
2011
2013E
2014E
22.7
116.5
6.0
26.4
25.2
133.8
4.5
17.8
27.0
155.0
5.0
18.5
15.6
10.9
2.1
3.0
1.7
14.0
9.5
1.8
2.6
1.3
13.1
8.6
1.6
2.3
1.4
24.2
20.1
21.2
19.4
20.2
19.0
18.7
17.9
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
90
5.3
95
5.8
101
6.7
106
6.9
Leverage Ratio
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
21.6
98.6
4.4
20.4
Valuation (x)
P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
2012
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
CF from Operations
Cash for Wkg. Capital
Net Operating CF
(INR Million)
2011
2012
56,287
60,456
-12,374
-16,462
43,913
43,994
2013E
66,822
-5,196
61,626
2014E
71,007
-7,164
63,843
Net Purchase of FA
-9,847
Net Pur. of Investments -28,775
-38,622
-14,023
-11,691
-25,714
-20,603
-37,314
-57,917
-28,011
-1,654
-29,666
Issue of Shares/Other adj 3,386
Proceeds from LTB/STB -4,592
Dividend Payments
-12,540
Net CF from Finan.
-9,028
7,257
2,780
-17,196
-1,755
-6,366
4,636
-12,902
-8,410
0
-6
-14,335
-7,034
Free Cash Flow
Net Cash Flow
34,066
-3,737
29,971
16,525
41,024
-4,700
35,832
27,143
Opening Cash Bal.
Add: Net Cash
Closing Cash Bal.
64,878
-3,737
61,141
61,141
16,525
77,666
77,666
-4,700
72,966
72,966
27,143
100,109
167
Yes Bank
Company description
Key challenges
Under the leadership of Mr. Rana Kapoor, YES bank has
posted "above industry" loan growth, healthy return
ratios while maintaining asset quality. With a strong
management team in place, Yes Bank now targets to
scale up its branch network to 900 by FY15 (380 at end
of 1QFY13) and nearly double the balance sheet to
INR1.5t by FY15.

Even in a tight liquidity condition and sharp increase
in bulk deposit rate, bank's performance on keeping
margins stable at 2.8%-3% is impressive and
demonstrates the soundness of ALM and pricing
power. With the interest rate expected to fall YES is
likely to be a biggest beneficiary.
 CASA traction remains strong and continuous
improvement in same would provide cushion to
margins. We expect non-interest income (excluding
financial markets) to grow (~20%) largely in line with
balance sheet growth. Half of the branch network is
less than 18 months old and productivity gains from
the same will help to augment CASA growth and
fee income of the bank.
 In an uncertain economic environment bank
moderated its loan growth and preferred to
increase its exposure to high rated corporate in form
of investment which is positive. Strong growth,
proven execution capabilities, diversified fee
income and superior return ratios are key positives
for Yes Bank. RoA is expected to remain healthy at
1.5%+ and RoE at ~23% over FY11-13.

Stock info
YES IN
354
360
2.3
389 / 231
-1 / 2 / 19
168
Faster than expected fall in interest rate and easing
liquidity conditions could lead to surprise on margin
 Improvement in economic macro-economic
environment would be beneficial for YES given its
diversified product offering.

Performance highlights of 1QFY13: Strong traction
in SA deposits continues (+20% QoQ). Sequentially
stable NIM of 2.8% despite challenging
environment. Strong customer asset growth (+7%
QoQ and 32% YoY) led by higher growth in credit
substitutes. Asset quality remains impeccable.
 Management guidance: (a) Customer asset CAGR
of 30% over FY12-15 (b) By FY15, SME and Retail loan
mix is targeted to be 30% from the current levels of
~15%. (c) CASA ratio of 30% by FY15 as against 16%
at end of 1QFY13. (d) sustainable RoA target of 1.51.75% and RoE of 22-24%

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
YES Banks tier I ratio stood at 9.7% (core Tier I at
8.7%) at end of 1QFY13. And with growth expected
to resume in CY13, it becomes imperative for the
bank to raise capital or it may act as a hurdle.
 Yes Bank's growth plans are heavily dependent on
strong branch expansion. If there is a delay in getting
branch licenses from RBI, it could impact retail
liability and asset growth.
Jun-12
26.1
14.2
43.5
16.3
Mar-12
26.1
10.9
51.9
11.1
Jun-11
26.5
7.0
53.7
12.9
Y/E March
Jun-11
NII
3,542
Change (%)
35.1
Other Income
1,653
Opex
1,944
Operating Profit
3,251
Change (%)
30.6
Provisions
15
PAT
2,161
Change (%)
38.2
NIM (%)
2.8
Loan Growth (%)
26.1
GNPA (%)
0.2
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
3,856
23.1
2,141
2,138
3,859
37.1
379
2,350
33.3
Dec-11
4,276
32.3
2,114
2,402
3,988
28.1
224
2,541
32.9
Mar-12
4,482
28.6
2,664
2,842
4,304
23.4
285
2,718
33.6
Jun-12
4,722
33.3
2,881
3,007
4,596
41.4
300
2,901
34.3
FY12
16,156
29.6
8,571
9,325
15,402
29.4
902
9,770
34.4
FY13E
20,958
29.7
11,767
12,465
20,259
31.5
1,723
12,512
28.1
2.9
12.7
0.2
2.8
15.3
0.2
2.8
10.5
0.2
2.8
16.4
0.3
2.8
10.5
0.2
3.0
18.0
0.5
August 27 - 31, 2012
Yes Bank: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
2012
Interest Income
40,417
63,074
Interest Expense
27,948
46,917
Net Interest Income
12,469
16,156
Change (%)
58.2
29.6
Non Interest Income
6,233
8,571
Net Income
18,702
24,728
Change (%)
37.2
32.2
Operating Expenses
6,798
9,325
11,904
15,402
Change (%)
37.9
29.4
982
902
PBT
10,922
14,500
Tax
3,650
4,730
Tax Rate (%)
33.4
32.6
PAT
7,271
9,770
Change (%)
52.2
34.4
Equity Dividend (Incl tax) 1,012
1,641
Core PPP*
12,367
15,024
Change (%)
61.7
21.5
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Reserves & Surplus
Net Worth
Deposits
Change (%)
of which CASA Dep
Change (%)
Borrowings
Total Liabilities
Current Assets
Investments
Change (%)
Loans
Change (%)
Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
2013E
78,196
57,239
20,958
29.7
11,767
32,725
32.3
12,465
20,259
31.5
1,723
18,537
6,024
32.5
12,512
28.1
2,196
18,381
22.3
(INR Million)
2011
3,471
34,469
37,941
459,389
71.4
47,509
68.6
66,909
25,831
590,070
34,960
188,288
84.4
343,636
54.8
1,324
21,861
590,070
2012
3,530
43,236
46,766
491,517
7.0
73,921
55.6
141,565
56,773
736,621
35,855
277,573
47.4
379,886
10.5
1,771
41,535
736,621
805
92
0.23
0.03
88.6
839
175
0.22
0.05
79.2
2013E
2014E
3,530
3,530
53,553
65,942
57,083
69,472
575,075 701,591
17.0
22.0
107,210 142,923
45.0
33.3
186,845 242,576
81,646 109,783
900,648 1,123,422
43,688
56,463
344,191 430,239
24.0
25.0
448,266 546,884
18.0
22.0
2,201
2,613
62,302
87,223
900,648 1,123,422
Asset Quality
GNPA (INR m)
NNPA (INR m)
GNPA Ratio
NNPA Ratio
August 27 - 31, 2012
2014E
88,295
61,988
26,307
25.5
14,149
40,456
23.6
15,561
24,895
22.9
2,634
22,261
7,235
32.5
15,026
20.1
2,254
22,816
24.1
Ratios
Y/E March
2011
8.8
Avg. Yield on loans
10.6
Avg. Yield on Investments 7.1
6.6
6.3
Interest Spread
2.2
Net Interest Margin
2.7
RoE
RoA
2013E
2014E
10.0
12.2
7.9
8.1
8.1
1.9
2.6
10.2
12.6
8.2
8.2
8.5
2.0
2.7
9.5
11.7
7.6
7.3
7.4
2.2
2.8
21.1
1.5
69.1
35.8
33.3
23.1
1.5
74.4
33.1
34.7
24.1
1.5
73.2
30.2
36.0
23.7
1.5
70.2
35.0
35.0
35.5
53.3
164.5
18.5
38.3
51.0
148.4
17.3
40.4
51.5
131.3
17.3
40.5
50.3
133.9
17.7
74.8
10.3
41.0
57.1
16.5
9.7
77.3
15.0
56.5
58.3
17.9
9.9
77.9
18.6
59.9
41.8
16.5
9.7
77.9
20.4
61.3
40.8
15.1
9.1
Book Value (INR)
109.3
Change (%)
20.2
Price-BV (x)
Adjusted BV (INR)
109.1
Price-ABV (x)
EPS (INR)
20.9
Change (%)
48.9
Price-Earnings (x)
2.5
Dividend Yield (%)
132.5
21.2
2.7
132.2
2.7
27.7
32.1
13.0
4.0
1.1
161.7
22.1
2.2
160.4
2.2
35.4
28.1
10.1
5.3
1.5
196.8
21.7
1.8
194.1
1.9
42.6
20.1
8.4
6.4
1.8
Cost/Income*
* ex treasury
Loans/Deposit Ratio
CASA Ratio
CAR
Tier 1
2012
Valuation
(%)
2,308
695
0.51
0.15
69.9
4,842
1,490
0.88
0.27
69.2
169
Company description
ZEE is a leading player in television broadcasting and
syndication of content overseas, with a portfolio of 30
channels including flagship Zee TV. Post the merger with
Zee News, it added regional channels like Zee Telugu,
Zee Kannada, Zee Marathi and Zee Bangla to the fold.
ZEE has a large Hindi film library and a well-established
reach of over 650m viewers across 168 countries.






With its offering of 30 channels, ZEE addresses
majority of the viewership market in India.
ZEE's flagship channel, Zee TV is placed strongly
among the top three players in the Hindi GEC
segment.
We expect ad revenue CAGR of 15% over FY12-14.
Mandatory digitization to drive better monetization
of domestic subscription and reduce the carriage
and placement expenses.
ZEE is one of the most profitable broadcasting
companies in India.








Key challenges
Lower ad spends led by macro slowdown.
Higher-than-expected losses in the sports business
 Potential negative regulatory developments
related to restriction on ad durations.
 Potential postponement of the digitization
deadlines. Currently the timeline for mandatory
digitization of four metros is October 31st 2012.


Stock info
Z IN
954
169
2.9
176 / 110
14 / 31 / 32
170


1QFY13 PAT grew 18% YoY (11% QoQ) to INR1.58b,
(v/s estimate INR1.5b). EBITDA, PBT were 17-20%
above estimate; PAT was dragged by higher tax rate.
Key positives: 1) Ad growth bounce-back and
2) Superior margin performance led by cost cutting.
Revenue grew 21% YoY to INR8.4b. Ad revenue
grew 18% YoY and 8% QoQ to INR4.47b.
Flagship Zee TV's average GRPs improved from 158
in 3QFY12 to 215 in 1QFY13. Zee would be increasing
programming hours in coming quarters.
Subscription revenue up 19% YoY to INR3.6b led by
domestic as well as international.
EBITDA grew 49% YoY to INR 2.3b. Margin rose 5pp
YoY to 27.7%. Sports loss was INR210m. Core (nonsports) EBITDA margin grew 470bp QoQ to 34.2%.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Successful implementation of mandatory
digitization.
Potential pick-up in adverting growth led by
increased spends by FMCG companies and/or
recovery in the economic outlook.
Ramp-up of domestic subscription revenue,
especially in the geographies where mandatory
digitization is being implemented.
Ad revenue and core margins trajectory as ZEE ramps
up original programming hours.
Operating Loss in the sports business.
Jun-12
43.9
13.1
35.6
7.4
Mar-12
43.7
12.5
37.3
6.5
Jun-11
42.8
14.3
35.5
7.5
Y/E March
Jun-11
Sep-11
Revenue
6,983
7,184
YoY Change(%)
3.2
1.0
EBITDA
1,560
2,076
YoY Change(%)
-16.5
10.1
28.9
PAT
1302
1600
Adjusted PAT
1,337
1,560
YoY Change(%)
10.4
23.6
PAT Margin(%)
19.1
21.7
Ad revenue growth (%) 0
-4
Domestic subscription growth (%)29
12
Sports EBITDA loss (INRm) -566
-226
Non-sports EBITDA margin (%)34.8
36.5
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Dec-11
7,548
0.0
2,160
40.1
28.6
1376
1,393
22.1
18.5
Mar-12
8,691
8.9
1,600
-29.5
18.4
1630
1,422
-31.8
16.4
Jun-12
8,430
20.7
2,332
49.5
27.7
1570
1,582
18.3
18.8
FY12
30,406
3.4
7,395
-2.2
24.3
5907
5,712
-2.4
18.8
FY13E
35,198
15.8
9,355
26.5
26.6
7069
7,119
24.6
20.2
-10
23
-100
34.0
-13
47
-588
29.5
18
21
-210
34
-7
28
-1,480
34
17
17
-1,018
34
August 27 - 31, 2012
Zee Entertainment Enterprises: Financials and valuation
Income Statement
(INR Million)
Y/E March
2011
Net Sales
29,414
Change (%)
33.9
Total Income
29,414
Total Expenses
21,849
EBITDA
7,565
Change (%)
24.3
% of Net Sales
25.7
Depreciation
288
EBIT
7,276
Other Income
1,070
Interest & Finance Charges 103
Extraordinay Income
897
PBT
9,140
Tax
2,751
Effective Rate (%)
30.1
PAT
6,390
Minority Interest
-118
Extraordinay Income
656
Adj. PAT
5,852
Change (%)
24.9
2012
30,406
3.4
30,406
23,011
7,395
-2.2
24.3
323
7,073
1,204
50
180
8,407
2,500
29.7
5,907
15
180
5,712
-2.4
2013E
35,198
15.8
35,198
25,843
9,355
26.5
26.6
401
8,954
1,218
73
0
10,098
3,030
30.0
7,069
-50
0
7,119
24.6
2011
978
29,970
30,948
-119
17
-192
30,654
2012
959
33,396
34,355
-32
12
-337
33,998
2013E
959
38,427
39,386
0
12
-337
39,061
2014E
959
44,211
45,170
0
12
-337
44,845
8,064
399
6,964
9,001
399
7,999
9,100
399
7,999
9,155
399
7,999
23,026
5,382
8,955
3,858
4,818
7,801
15,225
30,654
25,414
7,339
8,690
3,283
6,101
8,817
16,597
33,997
30,716
7,598
10,060
5,826
7,232
9,154
21,562
39,061
37,361
8,667
11,359
9,170
8,166
10,071
27,290
44,844
2011
2012
2013E
2014E
29.4
4.4
25
7.6
-2.1
9.6
25.7
-47.1
38.6
30.4
3.9
26.5
7.4
-1.5
8.9
24.3
-37.6
33.5
35.2
4.7
30.5
9.4
-1
10.4
26.6
-21.6
34
39.7
5.3
34.5
10.6
-0.8
11.4
26.7
-15.1
33.1
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Loans
Deffered tax liability
Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Program Films
Sundry Debtors
Loans & Advances
Net Current Assets
Appl.of Funds
2014E
39,742
12.9
39,742
29,126
10,616
13.5
26.7
445
10,171
1,524
76
0
11,620
3,486
30.0
8,134
-50
0
8,184
15.0
(INR Million)
Y/E March
Sports/Non-sports break-up
Revenue
-Sports
-Non-sports
EBITDA
-Sports
-Non-sports
EBITDA margin (%)
Sports
Non-sports
August 27 - 31, 2012
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
DPS
Valuation
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2011
2013E
2014E
5.9
6.3
35.8
1.5
25.0
7.4
7.8
41.1
1.9
25.0
8.5
9.0
47.1
2.1
25.0
28.7
26.9
20.4
5.0
4.9
0.9
22.8
21.6
15.9
4.2
4.2
1.1
19.8
18.8
13.7
3.6
3.7
1.3
16.9
23.8
17.5
25.5
19.3
27.8
19.4
27.9
111
115
71
1.0
104
169
93
0.9
104
150
90
0.9
104
150
90
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Y/E March
2011
7,276
Interest/Div. Received
1,070
Interest paid
-103
288
Direct Taxes Paid
-2,751
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital -638
5,143
2012
7,073
1,204
-50
323
-2,500
-1,946
4,103
2013E
8,954
1,218
-73
401
-3,030
-2,422
5,048
2014E
10,171
1,524
-76
445
-3,486
-2,384
6,194
656
656
180
180
0
0
0
0
CF from Invest. Activity
10,835
-3,761
7,074
-1,259
-1,035
-2,294
-500
0
-500
-500
0
-500
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Dividends Paid
Others
CF from Finan. Activity
-11,602
-1,178
-2,341
0
-15,121
-1,130
-5
-1,428
0
-2,563
-226
0
-1,780
0
-2,006
-304
0
-2,046
0
-2,350
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
-2,006
Closing Balance
3,858
-574
3,858
3,284
2,542
3,283
5,825
3,344
5,826
9,170
6.0
6.3
31.6
2.4
40.0
2012
Cash Flow Statement
Extraordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(INR Million)
171
Bajaj Finance
Company description
Key challenges
Bajaj Finance is a subsidiary of Bajaj Finserv, which
holds ~61% stake in the company. The company has
transformed itself from a captive auto financier offering
two wheeler loans for Bajaj Auto to a well diversified
retail loan provider. The company currently offers loans
for Bajaj Auto two-wheelers under the name of Bajaj
Finance and other consumer durable loans, personal
loans, small business and construction equipment loans
under the name of Bajaj Finserv Lending. As on June
2012, the company had AUM of INR145b.

Bajaj Finance has successfully transformed itself
from a captive two-wheeler financier to a fullfledged player in the consumer financing space. The
company has further diversified its product
portfolio by entering into small business loans, CE
and infrastructure financing, which would help the
company to grow at a steady clip.
 Shifting the target customer segment from mass
segment to affluent and mass affluent and with
tighter controls and risk management processes in
place, Bajaj Finance has witnessed steep
improvement in its asset quality. Moreover,
substantial chunk of AUMs in the retail / consumer
segment (~40%) too has helped in improving /
maintaining healthy asset quality.
 As on 1QFY13, the company maintains a PCR of more
than 90%, which provides adequate cushion to
absorb any asset quality shock.

Stock info
Growth trends in the coming quarters, as seasonally
Q2 and Q3 are being strong quarters led by festive
season.
 Asset quality trends of some of the retail focused
private banks
 Company may look to raise capital towards the end
of this fiscal

In 1QFY13, BFL's PAT grew 53% YoY on the back of
strong 60% YoY growth in its AUMs. Asset quality
remained healthy with loan loss provisions (as % of
AUMs) at 0.8% (annualized) v/s 1.3% for FY12.
For FY13, management has guided for AUM growth
of 25-30%.
 On a long term sustainable basis, RoA is expected
to be ~3% and RoE 18-20%.
 The company targets to raise ~INR7.5b in the next
round capital raising to address growth needs of
the next three years.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
BAF IN
41
1,079
0.8
1133 / 585
8 / 37 / 52
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Moderation in economic activity leading to 1)
slowdown in consumer spending and 2) slower
rampup in some of the new business verticals such
as CE and infrastructure financing could pose a
threat to Bajaj Finance's growth and asset quality.
 SME segment constitutes ~45% of total portfolio,
which in the current environment lead to higher
stress on the balance sheet.
Jun-12
61.1
12.1
10.1
16.7
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mar-12
61.1
12.0
9.5
17.4
Jun-11
56.1
13.0
10.4
20.5
Y/E March
Jun-11
YoY Gr. (%)
37.9
Operating Profit
1,688
YoY Gr. (%)
28.7
Provisions
342
PBT
1,346
Tax
438
PAT
908
YoY Gr. (%)
94.1
AUM (INR b)
90.3
RoAA (%)
4.8
Net NPA (%)
0.5
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
3,244
36.8
1,729
23.7
441
1,289
415
874
65.6
Dec-11
3,956
39.5
2,133
33.4
358
1,775
575
1,200
57.1
Mar-12
3,890
39.4
2,010
39.6
400
1,610
530
1,080
52.0
Jun-12
4,390
41.2
2,380
41.0
320
2,060
680
1,380
53.0
FY11
10,350
44.8
5,750
45.6
2,050
3,700
1,230
2,470
177.5
FY12
14,260
37.8
7,560
31.5
1,540
6,020
1,960
4,060
64.4
100.7
4.0
0.3
119.2
4.8
0.3
131.1
3.6
0.1
144.9
4.4
0.1
75.7
4.4
0.8
131.1
4.2
0.1
172
Bajaj Finserv
Company description

Bajaj Finserv is a financial services holding company
with diversified interests in insurance (life and nonlife), lending and asset management businesses. While
the insurance businesses are into separate joint
ventures with JV partner Allianz (both life and non-life),
the lending business is housed under its subsidiary
Bajaj Finance (formerly known as Bajaj Auto Finance).
Bajaj F inserv currently holds 74% in each of the
insurance ventures and ~61% in Bajaj Finance
(subsidiary).
Bajaj Finserv is a well diversified financial services
player with strong presence in the insurance,
lending and wealth management businesses.
 In the life insurance business, the company
continues to focus on profitable growth and has
sacrificed market share to improve profitability. As
a result, the life insurance business recorded profit
of INR13b in FY12 v/s INR10.6b in FY11. The
improvement in profitability could be attributed to
tight control on opex as the Commission ratio
declined to ~5% from 15% in FY08 and the Opex ratio
moderated to slightly over 15% from 20%+ in FY08.
 In the general insurance business, the company
retains the second position. BAGIC achieved a PAT
of INR1.2b in FY12 driven by strong operating
efficiencies by bringing in the combined ratio down
to 96% from 101% in FY09.
Bajaj Finance is rapidly growing its loan book by
diversifying into different product segments and
has substantially improved its asset quality leading
to steep improvement in its return ratios. In FY12,
BFL contributed ~17% of Bajaj Finserv's
consolidated profits.
Key challenges
Regulatory risk is a major challenge in the insurance
business.
 Significant deterioration in asset quality /
moderation in asset growth for Bajaj Finance could
affect consolidated profitability of Bajaj Finserv.


Stock info

Announcement regarding hiking FDI in the
insurance sector. However, Bajaj Finserv already has
an agreement in place through which Allianz can
increase its stake in the life and general insurance
business at a predetermined price.
1QFY13 highlights
In 1QFY13, Bajaj Finserv reported PAT of INR1.95b
up 52% YoY. Nearly 43% of the profits for the quarter
came in from Bajaj Finance.
 BALIC's new business premium for the quarter grew
by 28% YoY as against 6.4% YoY growth for the
industry. Meanwhile, the gross written premium
(excl. pool) for BAGIC grew 18% YoY.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
BJFIN IN
145
897
2.3
954 / 392
28 / 68 / 75
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Jun-12
58.9
5.1
10.5
25.5
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mar-12
58.9
5.3
10.4
25.5
Jun-11
58.4
6.1
9.8
25.7
Y/E March
Jun-11
Gross Written Premium
Life Insurance 13,877
General Ins.
7,981
PAT(Cons.)
1,287
Breakup
Bajaj Finserv *
122
BALIC
388
BAGIC
288
Bajaj Finance
508
BA Fin. Dist.
2
Bajaj Fin. Solutions -21
Intercompany Adj.
0
*Standalone
(INR Million)
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
FY11
FY12
16,785
8,106
1,582
16,739
7,754
1,701
27,438
12,918
8,808
12,114
9,773
1,952
96,100
31,294
11,148
74,838
36,759
13,378
421
427
470
489
3
-23
-205
145
460
442
672
3
-21
0
78
8,428
-285
606
3
-22
0
100
548
477
846
3
-22
0
1,883
7,822
320
1,301
10
-70
-118
766
9,703
915
2,275
11
-87
-205
173
Container Corporation of India
Company description
Key challenges
Concor controls ~74% of container rail business in India.
It has ~250 operational rakes and an extensive network
of 61 terminals. Even post the liberalization of the
industry in 2006, Concor has been able to continue its
dominance, primarily due to its ownership of ~61
terminals, which partially insulates it from high haulage
charges by Indian railways. Concor is now aiming to reposition itself as a total logistics and transport solutions
company, to its customers by expanding across all
segments of the transport value chain in the EXIM as
well as Domestic segments. Concor's total throughput
for the year FY11 was 25,62,297 TEUs, up 5.8% YoY.

By virtue of its strategic capital intensive assets,
Concor enjoys significant entry barriers and
sustainable competitive advantage.
 The current share of containerization in India is
~25%, as compared to ~60-70% for the world market.
The share of rail transport is expected to increase in
India, once the dedicated freight corridor is
completed in the next 2-3 years.
 Concor is debt free and enjoys high FCF's, which
positions it favorably to leverage on the huge
opportunities in the logistics vertical.

Stock info

It plans to re-position itself as a total logistics player
and expand its presence into various segments of
the transport value chain in the EXIM as well as the
domestic market. Concor has earmarked ~INR16b
for the same.
1QFY13, net sales increased 9.3% YoY to INR10.3b,
while net profit was up 4.7% YoY to INR2.5b.
 Increase in container rakes by ~30 in FY13.
 Capex of ~INR16b for FY13, which includes INR7b
for land acquisitions.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
CCRI IN
130
947
2.2
1,057 / 805
2 / 0 / -6
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Concor till FY06 was a virtual monopoly player in
the container rail business in India. Since FY06,
almost ~15 new players have entered the segment,
resulting in new challenges for the company.
 In FY10, Indian railways hiked haulage charges by
~37%, which negatively impacted the viability of
rail transport compared to road transport.
 Concor has plans transform itself from a container
rail transporter to a total transport provider, while
this opens up significant new growth opportunities,
it could also result in new challenges for the
company.
Jun-12
63.1
7.1
25.6
4.3
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mar-12
63.1
7.3
25.7
4.0
Jun-11
63.1
7.2
26.5
3.2
Y/E March
Jun-11
Net Sales
9,490
Changes (%)
3.6
EBITDA
2,597
Changes (%)
5.1
Reported PAT
2,342
Adjusted PAT
2,342
Changes YoY (%)
21.0
PAT Margin (%)
24.7
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
Sep-11
9,946
5.3
2,628
0.4
26.4
1,754
1,754
-15.1
17.6
Dec-11
10,463
7.7
2,773
-0.8
26.5
2,412
2,412
5.6
23.1
Mar-12
10,711
6.9
2,240
2.8
20.9
2,271
2,271
-8.1
21.2
Jun-12
10,370
9.3
2,672
2.9
25.8
2,451
2,451
4.7
23.6
FY11
38,349
3.5
10,066
4.7
26.2
8,760
8,767
11.4
22.9
FY12
40,610
5.9
10,241
1.7
25.2
8,779
8,778
0.1
21.6
174
ICRA
Company description
ICRA is one of India's leading credit rating agencies set
up in 1991 by various financial institutions and
commercial banks to act as an independent and
professional credit rating agency. The international
credit rating agency Moody's is the largest shareholder
in the company holding 28.5%. ICRA currently offers
rating services, IPO grading, consulting services and
knowledge process outsourcing services among others.
expansion of bank loan ratings. With Basel II
approach wherein risk weights are lower for high
rated corporate and state-owned banks increasing
focus on capital conservation would demand for
rating of corporate is expected to increase which
would be beneficial for ICRA.
 Bond market in India is at a nascent stage and as it
develops there would be increased need especially
mid-corporate and SME for getting rated which
would provide opportunities.
ICRA has very well diversified product offerings viz.
1) rating services, 2) consulting services, 3) outsourcing and information services and 4)
professional and I.T. services. Though, large share
of revenues (65%+ in FY12) come from rating
services, it has created different segments within
rating services viz. corporate, financial sector,
structured finance which completes the whole
gamut of offerings.
 The increase in rating services income (INR1.4b in
FY12 v/s INR1.3b) was attributable largely to the

Stock info
Increasing competitive pressures on account of
aggressive pricing and rating strategies adopted by
competitors could adversely impact revenues.
 Volumes to likely depend on the movement in
interest rates and systemic liquidity conditions.
High interest rates and sluggish markets could
adversely affect volumes and thereby revenues.

Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
ICRA IN
10
1,161
0.2
1,350 / 797
-9 / 10 / 8
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Key challenges
Jun-12
28.5
43.2
8.0
20.3
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mar-12
28.5
43.0
7.4
21.2
Jun-11
28.5
43.8
9.2
18.4
Y/e March
Jun-11
Operating Income
387
Change (%)
(5.6)
Operating Expense
347
Change (%)
19.8
EBITDA
69
Change (%)
(56.5)
Reported PAT
36
Adjusted PAT
36
Change (%)
(66.2)
PAT Margin (%)
9.3
Sep-11
519
7.2
382
29.1
156
(27.1)
30.0
86
87
(39.8)
16.7
Dec-11
542
14.8
367
6.2
245
44.6
45.2
174
174
54.6
32.1
(INR Million)
Mar-12
626
11.1
399
3.1
322
62.0
51.5
243
243
106.2
38.8
Jun-12
508
31.3
438
26.2
125
81.7
24.5
87
85
136.1
16.7
FY11
1,930
18.9
1,318
24.7
740
(6.7)
38.3
481
481
(10.0)
24.9
FY12
2,075
7.5
1,496
13.5
792
7.1
38.2
539
540
12.3
26.0
175
Manappuram Finance
Company description
Key challenges
Manappuram Finance Ltd. (MGFL; formerly known as
Manappuram General Finance and Leasing) is the
second largest gold loan player in India. As on Jun'12, it
operates through a network of 2,971 branches, has a
customer base of 1.62m and AUM of ~INR109b.
Manapurram has also introduced Instant Money Transfer
service in collaboration with UAE Xchange, Wallstreet
and MoneyGram.

MGFL is the second largest gold loan company in
the country and it remains among one of the
preferred financiers given its strong brand recall,
better services and low turnaround time. During the
period FY07-12, MGFL has grown its AUM at 85%
CAGR.
 The gold loan market in India is highly unorganized
and remains largely dominated by local money
lenders. In such a scenario, MGFL stands well poised
to grab market share by offering competitive rates
compared to local money lenders and being more
efficient as compared to banks offering similar
product.
 High collateral value and lower loss ratios has
resulted into healthy asset quality. As on Jun'12,
MGFL's net NPA ratio stood at 0.7%.
 Post the recent regulatory changes, the growth for
gold loan companies is expected to moderate.
However, we expect growth to pick up in the
medium term on a more sustainable basis.


Stock info
While the RBI has capped LTV at 60%, drop in gold
prices can impact growth led by demand for more
gold from customers.
 Steep decline in gold prices may also impact asset
quality of these players and hence remains a key
monitorable.
In 1QFY13, MGFL's AUM grew by 20% YoY, though
declined by 7% QoQ on the back of changes in RBI
guidelines capping LTVs at 60%.
 Profits for the quarter grew by 46% YoY, though
down 16% QoQ.
 GNPAs increased sequentially to 0.89% from 0.55%
in 4QFY12 as the delay in auctioning process due to
regulatory changes affected asset quality.
 For FY13, the management targets 10-15% AUM
growth, largely back-ended. The company plans to
add 200-250 branches against ~840 branches added
in FY12.

Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
MGFL IN
841
37
0.6
66 / 18
11 / -17 / -36
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
FY13 is likely to be a year of consolidation for gold
loan companies on the back of the regulatory
changes announced by the RBI. Capping of LTV at
60% could lead to business moving back to the
unorganized sector.
 Intensifying competition from banks in this
business can make difficult to achieve higher
growth.
Jun-12
31.6
2.0
47.8
18.6
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mar-12
31.6
0.9
48.8
18.8
Jun-11
36.5
1.5
45.5
16.6
Y/e March
Jun-11
Sep-11
Net Operating Income 3,145
3,713
Change (%)
121.2
107.2
Operating Expenses 1,424
1,687
Change (%)
101.6
98.1
Operating Profit
1,727
2,081
Change (%)
138.8
119.9
Adjusted PAT
1,078
1,353
Change (%)
133.6
125.2
AUM
90,296 106,010
AUM Gr. (%)
167.4
113.9
Gold Stock (MT)
60.1
65.2
NNPA (%)
0.3
0.3
(INR Million)
Dec-11
4,300
84.3
1,870
84.9
2,497
87.7
1,614
116.5
Mar-12
4,362
49.4
1,716
12.2
2,776
98.7
1,869
135.1
Jun-12
4,170
32.6
1,871
31.4
2,442
41.4
1,578
46.4
FY11
8,263
148.1
3,802
161.8
4,622
135.8
2,827
136.1
FY12
15,520
87.8
6,697
76.1
9,081
96.5
5,914
109.2
123,582
90.2
69.5
0.2
116,308
54.1
65.6
0.3
108,515
20.2
60.6
0.7
75,492
190.5
53.0
0.1
116,308
54.1
66
0.3
176
Muthoot Finance
Company description
Key challenges
Muthoot Finance Ltd. (MFL) is the largest gold financing
company in India in terms of asset under management
(AUM of INR233bn as on Jun'12). As on Jun'12, the
company operated through a network of 3,780 branches
spread across the country with nearly 64% of branches
concentrated in the southern states. Of the outstanding
gold loan portfolio, 67% is concentrated in the southern
region, followed by northern (18%) and western (10%)
regions.


In terms of sheer size, MFL is the largest gold loan
company in the country. MFL has achieved its
leadership position in this niche business segment,
given its strong domain knowledge, brand
reputation, widespread distribution network and
operational efficiency to achieve scale along with
profitability, while maintaining quality.
 The gold loan market is highly unorganized and
largely dominated by local money lenders. Muthoot
is well poised to grab market share by offering
competitive rates compared to local money lenders
and being more efficient as compared to banks
offering similar product.
 Post the recent regulatory changes, the growth for
gold loan companies is expected to moderate.
However, we believe in the medium term MFL can
achieve a more sustainable growth rate of ~20%.

While the RBI has capped LTV at 60%, drop in gold
prices can impact growth led by demand for more
gold from customers.
 Steep decline in gold prices may also impact asset
quality of these players and hence remains a key
monitorable.
In 1QFY13, MFL's AUM grew by 30% YoY, though
declined by 5% QoQ on the back of changes in RBI
guidelines capping LTVs at 60%.
 Profits for the quarter grew by 29% YoY and 5% QoQ
as the company maintained tight leash on operating
expenses.
 GNPAs increased sequentially to 1.28% from 0.56%
as the delay in auctioning process due to regulatory
changes affected asset quality.
 For FY13, the management targets 10-15% AUM
growth, largely back-ended. Return ratios expected
to stabilize at current levels.

Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
MUTH IN
372
132
0.9
191 / 106
-3 / -20 / -31
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
FY13 is likely to be a year of consolidation for gold
loan companies on the back of the regulatory
changes announced by the RBI. Capping of LTV at
60% could lead to business moving back to the
unorganized sector.
 Intensifying competition from banks in this
business can make difficult to achieve higher
growth.
Jun-12
80.1
4.3
12.1
3.6
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mar-12
80.1
3.5
12.4
4.0
Jun-11
80.1
1.6
13.2
5.2
Y/e March
Jun-11
Sep-11
Net Operating Income 4,735
5,532
Change (%)
95.9
Operating Expenses 1,786
2,248
Change (%)
95.5
Operating Profit
3,004
3,349
Change (%)
93.2
Adjusted PAT
1,905
2,156
Change (%)
88.3
AUM
179,492 209,405
AUM Gr. (%)
96.5
81.3
Gold Stock (MT)
120.0
130.0
GNPA (%)
0.3
0.6
(INR Million)
Dec-11
5,920
66.2
2,165
70.1
3,801
62.8
2,509
61.3
Mar-12
5,756
38.1
2,291
18.3
3,509
54.1
2,351
68.7
Jun-12
5,932
25.3
2,113
18.3
3,862
28.6
2,461
29.2
FY11
12,657
109.6
4,897
82.7
7,936
128.3
4,942
117.1
FY12
21,581
70.5
8,129
66.0
13,662
72.2
8,919
80.5
228,850
66.0
132.0
0.6
246,736
55.5
137.0
0.6
233,359
30.0
130.0
1.3
158,685
113.3
112.0
0.3
246,736
55.5
137.0
0.6
177
Radico Khaitan
Company description
Key challenges
Radico Khaitan (RDCK) is India's oldest alcoholic
beverage company. It entered the IMFL segment in 1999,
with the launch of its flagship brand, 8PM. RDCK has
three distilleries in Rampur, UP and holds 36% interest
in a JV in Aurangabad, Maharashtra. It owns six bottling
units and maintains 27 contract bottling units. It holds
8% market share in the IMFL industry and ~24% market
share in the CSD segment. The company offers all types
of liquor, except for beer and wine, in regular and
premium categories.

Radico is a pure India play on the huge growth
opportunity in the IMFL space.
 Rising sales of Magic Moments Vodka and new
launches (After Dark Whisky, Morpheus brandy) in
the premium segment will reduce dependence on
mass segment and improve profitability.
 A large spirits capacity, a pan India distribution
(second only to United Spirits) and increasing focus
on premium segment gives Radico an edge over
other emerging IMFL players.
 Decline in molasses and glass prices could improve
margins and profitability.

Increasing competition can reduce the success rate
for new launches in premium segment as many
midsized players are eyeing this segment.
 Firm molasses prices and higher glass bottle costs
could restrict margin expansion in FY13.
 Govt regulations regarding distribution, pricing and
taxes on IMFL and inputs (Molasses and Grain) are a
threat to industry profitability and cash flows.
Movement in molasses/grain and crude (28% of
glass cost) prices.
 Success of new launches in the premium space,
After Dark Whisky and Morpheus brandy can
improve volume growth and margin profile.
 Impact of increase in competition on existing
brands.







Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
RDCK IN
133
106
0.3
135 / 92
-12 / -8 / -23
Promoter
Dome. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Premium Brands volume growth of 21.0%.
Morpheus Premium Brandy volume growth of
50.0%.
Magic Moments Vodka volume growth of 17.7%.
Price increases received in the state of Kerala
Launched Florence, a super premium brandy, in
Tamil Nadu.
The company has planned capex of ~INR400m in
FY13, funded by internal accruals.
Jun-12
40.4
10.1
26.4
23.1
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mar-12
40.4
10.6
26.2
22.8
Jun-11
40.0
14.7
27.5
17.8
Y/E March
Operating Income
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
PAT Margin (%)
(INR Million)
Jun-11
2,849
21.9
459
29.3
16.1
207
207
29.2
7.3
Sep-11
2,627
18.4
431
10.7
16.4
148
183
0.5
7.0
Dec-11
2,904
8.3
500
14.5
17.2
237
212
3.7
7.3
Mar-12
2,732
23.1
353
-9.3
12.9
45
170
-6.9
6.2
Jun-12
2,909
2.1
586
27.6
20.1
211
211
1.8
7.3
FY12
10,978
20.3
1,809
11.8
16.5
637
761
4.6
6.9
178
Raymond
Company description
Key challenges
Incorporated in 1925, Raymond is an integrated textiles
company, with presence across the vertical – from fabric
to retail.

In textiles, Raymond is increasingly moving away from
capital intensive segments to high-margin, high-return
segments, positioning itself as a brand and retail play.
Besides textiles, it also has a presence in engineering
and auto components businesses.
There is tremendous scope to increase efficiencies
and rationalize costs, including lower working
capital, higher focus on key brands, etc.
 Raymond has now identified four key apparel
brands to focus on - Park Avenue, Parx, Color Plus
and Raymond Premium Apparel. It will direct bulk
of its advertisement and promotional initiatives
(INR1.7b advertisement expenditure in FY12). In
this regard, over the last one year it has slowly
phased out several unprofitable brands such as
Manzoni (Premium luxury), Zapp (Kid's wear) and
GAS (JV brand).
 Raymond added 269 new stores (net) over FY10-12,
taking its retail store count to 853 in FY12 from 584
stores in FY09. The management has a target of
having presence across all Class 1-5 cities/ towns. In
this regard it has identified ~435 towns where it
would like to have its TRS (The Raymond Store)
format retail presence over the next 3-4 years.

Post closure of its Thane plant, Raymond has
managed to free up ~125 acres for commercial
development. However, the management has not
shared any concrete plans with regard to
monetization timeline, development plan or cash
flow utilization.
 Early monetization of its real estate could be a key
trigger. We estimate the value of its 125 acres land
at Thane plant at INR147/share (based on INR120m/
acre monetized within 2 years, discounted @ 14%).

The outlook for 1HFY13 remains challenging given
the continuance of several of the above factors.
 1QFY13 consolidated results were below estimates,
with net Sales up 9.5% to INR8.4b, while EBITDA
dropped 74% YoY to INR180m.
 We expect Raymond's performance to improve
from 2HFY13. We model Raymond's FY13 EBIT to be
flat at INR2.6b and PAT down 10% to INR1.3b.
 Adjusting for real estate value, Raymond trades at
EV/ EBITDA of 5x.

Stock info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
CMP (INR)
Mcap (USD b)
52-Wk Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel Perf (%)
RW IN
61
362
0.4
439 / 300
-6 / 0 / -1
Promoter
Dom. Inst.
Foreign
Others
Raymond faces near-term challenges of rising input
prices and poor consumer demand, particularly in
its branded apparel business. However, over the
longer term, it is one of the strongest plays in the
branded garment segment, well positioned to
capitalize its strong franchise value.
Jun-12
39.5
25.5
10.5
24.4
August 27 - 31, 2012
Mar-12
39.5
26.9
10.4
23.2
Jun-11
39.1
28.2
7.7
25.0
Y/E March
Jun-11 Sep-11*
Net Sales
7,649
5,038
Change (%)
26.4
Total Expenditure 6,934
4,182
EBITDA
715
856
Change (%)
LTP
5.1
As % of Sales
9.4
17.0
Depreciation
396
255
Interest
362
321
Other Income
146
207
0
0
PBT
105
488
Tax
32
126
Reported PAT
73
362
Adj. PAT
108
362
Change (%)
-147.2
-7.9
* Standalone
(INR Million)
Dec-11
9,537
11.3
8,005
1,533
306.4
16.1
433
409
119
0
810
232
578
617
-
Mar-12
9,574
14.1
8,777
797
-21.3
8.3
441
443
117
0
30
25
5
31
-89.3
Jun-12
8,377
9.5
8,197
180
-74.8
2.1
439
472
141
-129
-590
-180
-410
-394
-
FY11
30,333
126.0
28,552
1,781
19.1
16.8
1,608
1,243
990
20
-81
614
1,695
1,695
558.9
FY12
36,395
20.0
32,129
4,266
139.6
17.8
1,658
1,651
1,087
107
2,044
560
1,487
1,487
-12.3
179
AIA Engineering
Company description
AIA Engineering (AIAE) makes high chrome mill
internals, used mainly by the cement, mining and utility
sectors. The company also services different mineral
ores like iron, copper, gold, platinum and zinc for mining
customers in geographies like USA, Canada, Brazil,
South Africa, Australia, etc.
The global market for mill internals for the mining
and the cement sectors is estimated at 2.5mt and
0.3mt, respectively and the market is growing at
4-5%. Bulk of company's revenues come from
consumable wear parts and its revenues to that
extent are shielded from the significant pull back in
capital spending.
 The penetration of high chrome mill internals is low
in the mining sector, but it is expected to rise,
opening up significant growth opportunities. AIAE
is aggressively focusing on this space. The company's
rated capacity stands at 200,000 tons per annum;
and in the process to chart out further expansion
plans through a combination of Greenfield and
Brownfield projects to increase the overall capacity
by additional 100,000 tons per annum.

Capacity utilization of the company remains at
around 65-70%, despite which the company is
adding additional capacity of 100k pa on the back of
aggressive demand outlook. Any prolonged slow
down in mining sector could have a significant
negative impact on margins and cashflows.
 High steel prices are a key risk to margins and
earnings growth to that extent is linked to
commodity cycle.

Key news flows/triggers to watch

Demand from mining sector needs to be monitored.
AIAE's 1QFY13 revenues at INR4.4b were up 62.7%
yoy, driven by volume growth and weak rupee.
Volumes grew 34% YoY to 40k MT (mining 18k MT)
over a low base in 1QFY12. EBITDA margin of 18.3%
was impacted by forex loss of INR150m.
 The management has guided for FY13 volume of
160k-170k MT with growth being driven by the
mining sector (80k MT expected).
 EBITDA margin is expected to remain muted due to
(1) weakness in cement segment, and (2) aggressive
pricing in mining segment to secure new clients.

Key challenges

AIAE is a single-product company and runs the risk
of moderate growth.
Au Financiers
Company description
Incorporated in 1996, Au Financiers is an asset financing
company based out of Rajasthan. The company largely
offers its products and services in the semi urban and
rural parts of the country and has been classified as
"Systemically Important Non Deposit Accepting NBFC".
The company enjoys "A-" rating from CARE and "BBB+/
Positive" rating from CRISIL on its long term
borrowings.
Area of presence
Apart from Rajasthan, the company has business
presence in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Goa, Punjab, Madhya
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh with an overall network of
173 Branches. Of the current network of 173 branches,
August 27 - 31, 2012
~47% of the branches are in the state of Rajasthan (82
branches) alone. Au Financiers aims to expand and
reach out to the un-banked masses pan-India to
identify and finance true entrepreneurial potential.
About the business
Au Financiers operates in the space of vehicle financing
for both new and old vehicles, SME loans, loan against
property and commercial vehicle loans. The company
also offers General insurance & Life insurance products
as a service provider. To diversify its product portfolio,
the company recently started housing finance business
(both rural and micro loans). Moving forward, the
company also plans to diversify further into insurance
and broking business.
180
Bajaj Electricals
Company description
Bajaj Electricals (BEL) operates five strategic business
units – Engineering and Projects (E&P), Appliances,
Fans, Luminaires, Lighting and Morphy Richards.

De-risked business model.
 The company has wide range of well accepted
products and distribution network. It has 19 branch
offices spread in different parts of the country
besides being supported by a chain of about 1,000
distributors, 4,000 authorized dealers, over 4,00,000
retail outlets and over 282 Customer Care centers.
 Diversified product portfolio and products across
various price points enables the company target
large number of customers.

Recovery in the E&P business with increase in order
inflow.
 Order completion and recovery in margins.





Key challenges
Macroeconomic slowdown and delayed execution
in E&P has increased project costs and hurt margins.
 Increasing competition remains a key concern.


Revenue grew by 22% to INR6.7b while the PAT
growth stood at 8% to INR120mn.
Consumer segment ~60% of 1QFY13 revenue grew
~29% with 10-12% volume growth.
Order backlog post 1QFY13 stood at INR4.5b (down
38% YoY).
EBITDA margins for the quarter decline 40bp to 5.2%
due to drag in margins in the lighting business on
account of higher imports.
Management indicated plans to divest stake in Bajaj
Venture e (a 50:50 JV with a group company for
manufacturing power tools).
The company took 5-10% price hikes across
products.
Fort Point Automotive
Company description
FortPoint Auto is founded by Mr Sundeep Kumar Bafna
in 1993 with a Hero Honda (now Hero MotoCorp)
dealership. In the same year, it was awarded Hindustan
Motors dealership. In early 2000s, it ventured in the small
car segment with the dealership of Daewoo in Thane
and later switched over to FIAT India. In the year 2003, it
was awarded General Motors India Ltd dealership. In
2006, Mr Bafna took a bold step by surrendering all car
dealerships and taking up Maruti Udyog dealership at
three locations - Mahim, Mahalaxmi, and Thane.
FortPoint represents Hero MotoCorp for 2-wheelers,
Maruti Suzuki for cars, and Eicher Motors for CVs.
Key positives
Healthy growth in per capita income, shrinking
replacement cycle together with strong brand pull
for flagship products Splendor and Passion augurs
well for two-wheeler dealership business.
 PV dealership business would benefit from healthy
growth in the PV industry as income and aspiration

August 27 - 31, 2012
levels rise coupled with car ownership levels.
 While near term pressures exist, CV dealership will
benefit from healthy long term growth with rise in
industrial and economic activity. Post the JV with
Volvo, Eicher HCVs are gaining acceptance among
transporters with improved product quality and
after market service.
Key challenges
Current slowdown in demand with weak consumer
and business sentiments to impact dealership
business.
 Maintaining market share in increasing competitive
environment to test pricing power and margins,
particularly in the two-wheeler and passenger
vehicle dealership business.



Performance of the Hero branded products
Response to new launches: (1) Ignitor and Maestro
in two-wheeler; (2) Ertiga in passenger vehicle; and
(3) HCV (VE Series) in CVs.
181
Sidhivinayak Logistics
Company description
Key challenges
Siddhi Vinayak Logistics (SVVL), the largest and fastest
growing fleet operator in India, owns more than 3700
trucks of various models and configuration and has an
annual turnover of over INR9b. It operates across
diverse segments like steel, cement, tractors,
chemicals, machinery and is a pioneer in new segments
like commercial vehicle chassis carriers. SVLL is among
the first and largest customer for any CV player in India.

Macro-economic headwinds have impacted the
freight traffic and freight rates, leading to pressure
on logistics companies' profitability.
 Availability of truck drivers has been one of the key
challenges being faced by the logistics industry.

activity to boost freight traffic.

PV dealership business would benefit from healthy
growth in the PV industry as income and aspiration
levels rise coupled with car ownership levels.
Key positives
Given its strong presence across the country and
wide client base, healthy growth in the economic
activity, over the longer term, augurs well for SVVL.
 Share of organized transportation is on the rise as
corporate look for complete logistics solutions,
benefiting players like SVVL.

Unitech Automobile
Company description
Unitech Automobiles, based out of Mumbai, is the
largest Tata Motor's CV dealership with annual sales of
over 11k units. Mr. G.S.Arora (CMD - Unitech
Automobiles) has been associated with the automotive
industry for over 2.5 decades. He has recently entered
passenger vehicle dealership business with the
acquisition of Maruti Suzuki dealership. Apart from the
automobile dealership business, Mr. Arora also runs a
logistics company with over 130 trucks.
Key challenges
Macro-economic headwinds have impacted the
freight traffic and freight rates, leading to fall in
MHCV volumes.
 Maintaining market share amidst increasing
competition in domestic M&HCV industry,
particularly from Daimler (Bharat Benz).

Key positives
While near term pressures exist, CV volumes are
expected to grow at a healthy rate over the long
term with rise in industrial and economic activity.
 Proliferation of hub & spoke model and rise in
consumption spend augurs well for the LCV segment.

August 27 - 31, 2012
 Response to the recently launched Ertiga.

182
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Companies where there is interest
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