Full version - Aspen Institute Prague
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Full version - Aspen Institute Prague
No 1 | 2015 1 | 2015 Index: 287210 CENTRAL EUROPE Aspen Institute Prague is supported by: LEFT IS BACK Frank Furedi, Ulrike Guérot, Ivan Krastev, John Psaropoulos, Martin Šimečka, José Ignacio Torreblanca Nuclear Nationalism Has Only Brought Misery An interview with Shirin Ebadi Do Political Ideas Still Matter? Jan-Werner Müller W W W . A S P E N I N S T I T U T E . C Z POLITICS Europe and Russia Dominique Moïsi | Europe in 1815 and 2015 B. Simms ECONOMY Corruption, Romanian Style A. Mungiu | A Post-Imperial Federation Y. Zhuchkova CULTURE Phenomenological Space Cadets to the Rescue A. Tucker | Masaryk and the Poles A. Kaczorowski No 1 | 2015 Advisory Board Walter Isaacson (co-chairman), Michael Žantovský (co‑chairman), Yuri Andrukhovych, Piotr Buras, Krzysztof Czyżewski, Josef Joffe, Kai ‑Olaf Lang, Zbigniew Pełczyński, Petr Pithart, Jacques Rupnik, Mariusz Szczygieł, Monika Sznajderman, Martin M. Šimečka, Michal Vašečka Editorial Board Tomáš Klvaňa (chairman), Luděk Bednář, Adam Černý, Martin Ehl, Roman Joch, Jan Macháček, Kateřina Šafaříková, Tomáš Vrba Editors Aleksander Kaczorowski (editor-in-chief ), Maciej Nowicki (deputy editor-in-chief ), Robert Schuster (managing director) Tra n s l at o r s Tomasz Bieroń, Julia Sherwood Published by Aspen Institute Prague o. p. s. Palackého 1, CZ 110 00 Praha e-mail: [email protected] www.aspeninstitute.cz Year IV No 1/2015 ISSN 1805–6806 © Aspen Institute Prague The ideas expressed in the articles are authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the editorial board or of the Aspen Institute Prague. Contents F O R E W O R D Radek Špicar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 E D I T O R I A L Aleksander Kaczorowski. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 C O V E R S T O R Y Left is Back The Rise of Podemos—José Ignacio Torreblanca . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Return of the Radical Left—Ivan Krastev . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . How Syriza Came to Power—John Psaropoulos . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Left—Ghost of the Past or the Progressive Left in Germany?—Ulrike Guérot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . In Search of Meaning: 21st Century Leftist Imaginarium—Frank Furedi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C O M M E N T Martin Šimečka . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 13 17 21 25 29 THE INTERVIEW Nuclear Nationalism Has Only Brought Misery. An interview with Shirin Ebadi by Maciej Nowicki . . . . . . . . . . 33 C O M M E N T Bogdan Góralczyk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 POLITICS Do Political Ideas Still Matter?—Jan-Werner Müller. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Europe in 1815 and 2015—Brendan Simms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Europe and Russia—Dominique Moïsi. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Elite in Russia Is Kept on a Leash by the Nation. An Interview with Zakhar Prilepin by Filip Memches. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Future of EU-Russia Relations—Michal Šimečka . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A Post-Imperial Federation: Impossible or Inevitable?—Yulia Zhuchkova . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . C O M M E N T Adam Černý. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 45 49 52 56 60 65 ECONOMY The End of Equality—Jan Sowa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Corruption, Romanian Style—Alina Mungiu-Pippidi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Defending the Wrong Rule of Law—Maciej Kisilowski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Russia’s Non-Soviet Path—Vladislav Inozemtsev . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Can Orbán Break Out of the Diplomatic Isolation?—Péter Krekó, Bulcsú Hunyadi, Krisztián Szabados. . . . . . . C O M M E N T Martin Ehl. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 74 78 82 87 91 C U LT U R E Masaryk and the Poles—Aleksander Kaczorowski . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Phenomenological Space Cadets to the Rescue—Aviezer Tucker. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Two Germanies, Two Cultures—Robert Schuster . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 The Animal Point of View—Patrycja Pustkowiak. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Culture as a Source of Practice—Tomasz Stawiszyński. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 3 Dear readers, Let me present you the spring 2015 issue of the Aspen Review quarterly. “Left is back” analyzes the dynamics behind recent successes of leftist political parties in Europe. It also reveals a dramatic shift between ideas traditionally associated with leftist political thought and the main features of the left today. After several years of tough austerity measures, the left in Europe is gaining on strength. The beginning of the year saw Syriza, a radical left-wing party, win parliamentary elections in Greece. Ivan Krastev argues that this victory cannot only be explained by the economic crisis, but shows that Greece has a tradition of political radicalism and leftist populism that goes back to resistance against the Nazi occupation. In another text, Martin Šimečka explores the paradox why the Czech and Slovak left-of-center parties are lured towards Kremlin. Although they claim allegiance to the legacy of the 1968 Prague Spring that was crushed by the Russian-lead invasion, they present all sorts of justifications for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The author uncovers political and psychological explana- 4 A S P E N tions for this political behavior that earned the Czech and Slovak governments a reputation as the Kremlin’s Trojan horse in the EU. Despite its revival in Europe, Frank Furedi claims that for the first time in the modern era, the left is falling short of providing a plausible political alternative. The example of the Occupy Movement, which avoided formulating political demands, proves that lack of vision may sometimes be presented as a virtue. In his article, Furedi explains that the struggle of the left to produce a plan for the future is caused by the erosion of almost all political principles and values traditionally associated with the movement. The author also points to what appears as a reversal of roles between the left and the right. Today’s left is risk-averse, opposed to consumerism and weary of the concept of economic growth and technological development. This spring brings a lot in Aspen agenda. In March, we organized the third edition of the Aspen Young Leaders Program, with the highest number of participants so far. To get an idea of what it has to offer, please have a look at our website. The next big R E V I E W / F O R E W O R D of Reykjavik Jón Gnarr. Within our urban focus we will also continue with debates on creative placemaking, culminating during the second Creative Placemaking Festival, organized in cooperation with Pilsen 2015 this fall. Finally, our office is busy with preparations of a brand new concept for the Aspen Annual Conference, our biggest event each year. The conference will provide an opportunity for renowned experts and personalities to present and discuss their assessments of the state of the Czech Republic in terms of several strategic indicators. Aspen event is already planned for April, when our institute co-organizes several debates during the European Economic Congress in Katowice, Poland. We invited a number of interesting speakers to the congress, one the largest business events in Central Europe, which convenes thousands of guests each year. In the spirit of our Leadership Program, we also support the EEC Leaders for Tomorrow, a new initiative within the Congress promoting active involvement of young people in discussions on important public issues. Meanwhile, our Institute continues implementing activities in policy areas—digital agenda, creative palcemaking and urban development. We will organize a series of policy meetings with the aim to help Visegrad countries discuss the potential of new technologies for economy and society. Despite considerable benefits and risks linked with the digital economy and digitalization, which we analyzed in the previous issue of the Aspen Review, the topic has yet to make significant imprint in public policy. In partnership with reSITE Festival we will organize a debate on activism in local politics with a truly special guest, former Mayor A S P E N R E V I E W / F O I wish you an enjoyable read during prolonging spring days, RADEK ŠPICAR Executive Director Aspen Institute Prague R E W O R D Photo: Aspen Institute Prague 5 EDITORIAL A Russian Phantasmagoria Aleksander Kaczorowski The plot of Vladimir Sorokin’s latest novel, The Blizzard, can be summed up in three sentences. Physician with a Bunin-like name Platon Ilyich Garin travels to a village where an epidemic broke out, carrying a vaccine. Days go by and he is unable to reach his destination: one day he breaks a sleigh runner, another day he wanders off the trail, and then again he succumbs to the charms of a beautiful miller’s wife. And the eponymous blizzard is raging around him. As in Sorokin’s previous novel Day of the Oprichnik, the plot of the book is set in a not very distant future, probably in the second half of the current century. Nevertheless the social realities, as well as the deliberately archaic Russian of the protagonists, call to mind 19th-century provincial Russia. Or perhaps even the eternal and unchanging Muscovy, piled with never melting snow. A country reached by modern civilisation only in the form of the newest technological gadgets: samovar (19th century), phone (20th century) and “scooter” (21st century). Garin moves in just such a scooter, a kind of sleigh pulled by fifty very small ponies. As 6 A S P E N R ALEKSANDER KACZOROWSKI Editor in Chief of Aspen Review Photo: Jacek Herok the coachman Perkhusha explains, the ponies the size of partridges are much cheaper to maintain than traditional horses, as they can be fed clover. Hence their popularity in the poor Russian countryside, where in the late 21st century, just like 200 years ago, you have to do everything almost with your bare hands. For the future Russia Sorokin’s style is a country of total deindustrialisation—and E V I E W / E D I T O R I A L Vladimir Sorokin (1955), a specialist in oil and gas extraction by training, and a novelist, painter and book illustrator by vocation, made his debut—believe it or not—almost half a century ago, in 1972. The Soviet Union was then at the height of its power. Russians flew into space more often than all the other inhabitants of the globe put together, and the scant dissidents were locked in psychiatric wards—for in a country of real socialism only loonies could oppose the regime. And today? The former conquerors of space are reduced to digging holes in the permafrost in search of remnants of oil and gas. If it goes on like that, they will be left with biomass and in vitro horses. More seriously speaking, it is worth noting that the plot of this, it would seem, quintessentially Russian novel is a pastiche of the classic song cycle by Franz Schubert called “The Miller’s Beautiful Wife” (Die Schöne Müllerin, 1823), with lyrics by Wilhelm Müller. Sorokin shifts the drama of an infatuated romantic wanderer to the reality of snowy, post-industrial Russia. The wanderings of a young man, haunted by a presentiment of suicidal death, in painterly scenery of Germanic meadows and flowers turn into an insane Anabasis of a 42-year-old Russian sawbones and his moronic coachman, who needs three days to cover a distance of just seventeen versts. At a pinch this can be perceived as an allegory of the crippled modernisation. Especially that the last word in the book—as in the majority of catastrophic visions by contemporary Russian writers— belongs to the Chinese. It reads: “Guale!”. And it means “he is dead and gone”. advanced biotechnology. Since all natural resources have been exhausted, living organisms, humans and animals, are the only renewable source of energy. Biomass is also the basic raw material and tool. For example, when you construct a house which is several stories high, you do not use cranes, but huge draft horses tailor-made in the laboratory. Such horses also pull sleigh trains, consisting of a number of wagons carrying both passengers and freight. Charged with felling trees are men the size of three-storey houses. Of course there are also people (and horses) of traditional proportions, such as Garin, his coachman and miller’s wife who is hosting them (although her husband is a Lilliputian no taller than a bottle of vodka). It is not difficult to guess that against such a range of human dimensions racial differences fade. Russians, Kazakhs and Chinese (of the same size) peacefully coexist in the country ruled by a serene monarch. Existing on the side-lines of the patriarchal society are only the mysterious Vitaminese, forming a close circle of producers, traders and consumers of so-called products, allowing explorations of altered states of consciousness. Where did the giants and Lilliputians come from? And why do the dead arise from permafrost and bite innocent villagers, infecting them with a mysterious disease called Chernukha (Blackie)? We never learn that, but we can guess that the origin of the biopolitical system of this old-new Russia reaches back to the “greatest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century” (as Vladimir Putin famously said), that is the breakup of the Soviet Union. A S P E N R E V I E W / E D I T O R I A L 7 COVER STORY The Rise of Podemos José Ignacio Torreblanca Podemos seeks to transcend traditional divisions between left and right and to reframe politics as a struggle between the people and the elite In the European elections held in May 2014, Podemos (We Can), a platform established just five months before by a group of young university professors managed to mobilize more than 1,250,000 voters (8% of the electorate) and send five representatives to the European Parliament. Speaking to the crowd gathering at the Party’s headquarters to celebrate their victory, its young and charismatic leader, Pablo Iglesias, announced that this had only been the beginning and that he and his party aspired to make it to the government in 2015 general elections. “The process to liberate the peoples of the South from German colonization,” he announced, “has just begun.” Podemos’ rise was a major surprise: polling institutes had noted Spaniards’ dissatisfaction with the two main parties, PP and PSOE (conservative and socialist, respectively) which had been ruling Spain since 1982, but they had not been able to anticipate that voters would favor Podemos in a such a massive way. But what happened afterwards was even more r emarkable: over the following months, with every new poll, Podemos would always double its share of potential votes until they beat the two main parties. In July, just one month after the elections, a poll revealed that Podemos had almost doubled its share to 15% of the potential vote. And in November, two further polls showed another 10 A S P E N R E V doubling of the potential vote, with Podemos support spiking to 22% and 28%, putting them on par with the Socialist Party (26.2%) and above the Conservative Party (20.7%). All of a sudden, a party formed just a few months earlier had serious chance of making it to the government of the country, overturning the general consensus and bipartisan system dominating Spain’s politics since the restoration of democracy back in 1978. Observers described the phenomenon as a “tsunami” threatening to engulf the establishment parties, and investors are worried that after thirty years or remarkable stability, Spain might move into political instability, uncertainty and an entirely new partysystem. What is Podemos and what does it stand for? Ideologically, Podemos is a left-wing party drawing its inspiration from both Latin American national-popular movements (Chavez’s Venezuela, Correa’s Ecuador, Morales’ Bolivia and Kirchner’s Argentina) and Alexis Tsipras’ Syriza in Greece. In its origin, its leaders have shown utter hostility to both neoliberalism, which they describe as socially, democratically and environmentally devastating, and liberal democracy, which they see as an intrinsically corrupt and unfair system by which the upper classes legitimize their grip on all levels of social, political and I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y economic life. Regarding foreign policy, Podemos’ leader has declared he would want Spain to pull out of NATO, to invite American troops to leave the country, repeal the Lisbon Treaty and have debtor countries allying against Germany’s dominance. Like many other new parties across Europe, Podemos seeks to represent the losers from the economic crisis and capitalize on people’s anger about political corruption and social inequality. Accordingly, their economic program speaks of nationalizations of public utilities, the auditing and eventual restructuring of national debt, the setting of higher taxes for the rich, the increase in minimum wages, the lowering of retirement age and work hours and the rising of pensions, but overall, empowering the disempowered to make both the economy and the political system work for the people and not the economic or political elites. What it’s new about Podemos is that they seek to transcend classical divisions between left and right and reframe politics as a struggle between the many (the people) and the few (the elite, or as they call it, mimicking Beppo Grillo in Italy, “la casta”). By interpreting all the ills of Spain in terms of the elite having let the people down, they seek to bring down what they describe as the “1978 regime,” i.e. the Constitutional package (monarchy, liberal democracy and market economy) which has ruled over Spaniards during the last 30 years. Podemos thus reinterprets populism from the left in order to reach hegemony (their preferred term, owing to their idol, Antonio Gramsci, the Italian Communist imprisoned by Mussolini). What explains the meteoric rise of Podemos and what will be the consequences? Their extraordinary success is due to the combined economic and political crisis. With the emphasis of economic policy placed on efficiency, flexibility and competitiveness, the government has forgotten the people. While savings banks were injected with massive amounts of money to cover their losses in the real-estate market, people were mercilessly evicted from their homes, unable to meet their mortgage payments. The impact of structural reforms and A S P E N R E V I E W / C austerity has therefore been uneven, with the gap between the rich and the poor widening, public services deteriorating and job insecurity spreading. But the straw that has broken the camel’s back is political corruption: while many have had to endure salary devaluation, unemployment and a deep sense of insecurity about the future, they have witnessed the prosecution of one politician after another on a daily basis (including the former King’s daughter and son in law) under accusations of corruption or mismanagement of public money. To some political scientists, the combination of extreme unfairness, inequality and political corruption and privileges for the elites means that the underlying social contract reigning in post-Franco Spain has been severely damaged, if not broken. Polls show that a large number of people have effectively stopped trusting in the established political institutions or political parties and would want to bring about a radical change, which is what Podemos promises to deliver (a recent campaign video released by Podemos just claims: “Out with all!”). Podemos can thus be seen as the consequence of the lack of vision and mistakes of the main two parties. The Socialists are both blamed for not having detected the magnitude of the crisis beforehand, and then—when the shock came—for having too easily given up on social policy and too hastily embracing austerity. At the other end, the Conservatives are being blamed for not having been firm on corruption, not having delivered on the main electoral promises, and for not having been able to create jobs and new opportunities. As a result, in a very short span of time, Spaniards have moved from proudly celebrating their best thirty years in history (1978–2008) to a state of profound dissatisfaction and pessimism about the future. While Podemos represents an extraordinary phenomenon in Spain, it is not so unique in Europe. In fact, the rise of Podemos answers the question which many have been posing about Spain during the last four years. Ever since May 9, 2010, international observers have been wondering O V E R S T O R Y 11 why Spaniards are not revolting. On that day the Spanish President, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, under intense pressure from international debt markets and his European colleagues (including also a tense late night call with Presi dent Obama), was forced to implement tough austerity measures, extend retirement age and relax lay-off conditions for workers. With almost 27% unemployment at the peak of the crisis, including 55% youth unemployment, and the highest increase in inequality across the European Union, Spain has undoubtedly been among the hardest-hit countries by the crisis, next probably only to Greece. Yet while all over Europe we have witnessed radical parties—both left and right—trying to capitalize on the impact of the crisis to challenge mainstream political forces (Syriza in Greece, the 5 Star Movement in Italy, the Front National in France, the UKIP in Britain), Spaniards have kept remarkably quiet. A hint of revolt did take place on May 2011 when hundreds of thousands of Spaniards captured the attention of international media by taking to the streets and occupying the plazas chanting “you don’t represent us” to the country’s politicians. Yet the Puerta del Sol movement, though it managed to replicate itself globally (recall the Occupy Wall Street Movement and the 99percent movement), dissolved without effectively challenging the establishment. In fact, rather than revolting, in the subsequent elections held in October 2011, the Conservative Party of Mariano Rajoy with its agenda of austerity and structural reform was given an absolute majority. Various forces combined to keep the Spaniards quiet. First, the Spanish far-right, still suffering from its association with the Franco regime, was unable to awaken Spanish nationalism by manipulating immigration issues or anti-German sentiment. At the other end of the spectrum, the Spanish far-left (i.e. the former Communists), which had always been largely pro-European, did not dare challenge the euro as Spaniards still largely identified with Europe 12 A S P E N R E V despite the crisis. As in Greece, Podemos’ first and main victims have been the former Communists, apparently unable to understand that 19th and 20th century class-struggles have been superseded and replaced by more horizontal societies and new types of conflicts and cleavages. One exception to the remarkable absence of populism in Spain has been Catalonia, one of Spain’s richest regions, both economically and culturally. Here secessionists have been able to exploit the euro crisis to excite anti-Spanish sentiments by arguing that Catalans are being milked by the rest of Spain and are not sufficiently reimbursed for it with recognition of their language and culture. Still, except for Catalonia, Spain had been largely void of populism, despite the crisis. Until now. Now, paradoxically, at a time when Spanish structural reforms garner the praise of international observers and the German government uses the Spanish case as a model for France and others to follow, opinion polls suggest a rise in discontent which could lead to the collapse of the traditional two-party system which has dominated Spanish politics over the last 30 years. If anything, this shows that the economic reforms adopted by the eurozone, even if successful economically, are not politically sustainable and threaten to destroy those who implement it. JOSÉ IGNACIO TORREBLANCA is Professor of Politics at UNED University and Head of the Madrid Office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Photo: Photo Archive European Council on Foreign Relations I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y The Return of the Radical Left Ivan Krastev The decline of support for the mainstream parties both left and right is the dominant trend in European politics. It’s hard to judge whether the majority of Europeans is shifting to the left or to the right, but what is obvious is that almost nobody is left in the center. On Sunday, January 25, 2015, on the seventh year of the economic crisis in Europe, for the first time since the end of the Cold War radical left has won the parliamentary elections in an EU member state. The next day Syriza’s leader Alexis Tsipras has been sworn in as Greece’s next prime minister by president Papoulias, whose term in office will soon end. How radical is the Greek left is one of the most heatedly discussed questions these days not only in Athens, but also in Brussels and Berlin. Trying to figure the answer out, analysts, journalists and the like are looking into every bit of detail they can get about the new naughty kid on the block. Rather tellingly, Tsipras used to have a picture of Che Guevara in his office. But this has recently changed. Accidentally, or—as those who know him somewhat would guess—in an attempt to gain respectability, he decided to renovate his office space and to replace the Che Guevara portrait with a boldly colored painting depicting two bulls facing off. Now, what is in the mind of the bull on the left? A less than century ago the left used to be radical. It believed in the working class, nationa A S P E N R E V I E W / C lization and socialism. It sympathized with Moscow and blamed Washington for the ills in the world. The radical left believed in revolution and the dictatorship of the proletariat. Today the radical left strongly denounces the dictatorship of the capital and the rising social inequality, but not much more. “What we offer is a Keynesian program with redistribution attached, with some Marxist view of the world,” confesses one of the economic advisers of Tsipras. But if you look at Syriza’s economic program in a somewhat historical perspective, and compare it with the program of the François Mitterrand’s government of 1981, for example, it will begin to look less radical than we thought. It stands for what was the European consensus just 40 years ago. It is simply that economic realities, perceptions, and orthodoxies have shifted in the last decades, and the European Union of 2015 is not the European Common Market of 1981. Political observers are convinced that the survival of the euro depends on narrowing the economic choices of the national governments and respectively of the voters. Today, it seems, this bit of the European economic orthodoxy is backfiring O V E R S T O R Y 13 in Greece so far. Thus the key questions today are whether Greece will stay an exception, or whether will it inspire a leftist wave in the politics of the European South, and how will the election of a radical left government in Greece affect the current policy consensus in the EU. always unfamiliar to the Greek democracy born out of a civil war and sustained through oscillation between ugly clientelism and unashamed populism. The populist left is traditionally strong in the country. It goes back to the resistance against the Nazi occupation and the regime of the colonels of the 1970s. The electoral victory of Andreas Papandreou’s Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASSOK) in 1981 was among the very few successes of the populist left in European politics in the days of the Cold War. Many in Greece today tend to view Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the Syriza, as the heir to this ideological tradition. Greek Left was always visible in the European radical traditions. It is enough to walk through the still surviving leftist second hand bookstores in Paris and London in order to remind ourselves of the critical role played by Greeks like Cornelius Castoriadis or Nicos Poulantzas in articulating the positions of the radical left. Alexis Tsipras and Syriza come from this milieu that is openly anti-capitalist, vaguely Marxist and vocally anti-American. Unlike the Podemos leaders in Spain who were strongly influenced by the successes and failures of the Latin-American left in the last two decades, Greek radical left stays in the tradition of the European leftism of the 1970s. It hates not only the economics but also the culture of neoliberalism with its excessive individualism and consumerism. It echoes some of the frustrations of the anti-colonial movements on Europe’s periphery. And when it comes to the European Union, Greek radical left cannot get out of its profound ambiguity. They do not see the EU as the project of the Left but at the same time they are realists enough to understand that Greece can only lose by leaving the Eurozone or the European Union. Syriza’s success, its transformation from a marginal coalition in the beginning of the crisis (its only ambition then was to get more than 3 percent of the votes and to enter the Parliament) into the biggest political party in Greece is directly linked to Tsipras’s unconditional The Greek Example or the Greek Exception The decline of the support for the mainstream parties both left and right is the dominant trend in European politics since the outset of the economic crisis. It’s hard to judge whether the majority of Europeans is shifting to the left or to the right, but what is obvious is that almost nobody is left in the center. While the crisis has led to further Europeanization of the policy making, the opposite process of nationalization of political sentiments is observable all over the continent. In Western Europe the scapegoats are the immigrants, in Eastern Europe it is most often the Roma and foreign investors. It is also clear that while in the creditor countries of the North (Germany, Austria, Netherland, Sweden) the protest vote tends to benefit right wing populists, in the debtor countries of the South (Greece, Spain, Portugal) it is the left that mobilizes the angry voters. Greece is the ultimate victim of the crisis. Greek economy has shrunk 25 percent since the onset of the crisis, which is comparable to the losses suffered by Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Greece’s public debt today is 175 percent of the GDP and rising, which leads to despair in people and to social disintegration. In the last years the Troika composed of the IMF, European Commission and ECB in fact governs the country, thus adding national humiliation to the economic pain. So how could we be surprised by Syriza’s victory? However, the success of the radical left in Greece could not be explained by the economic crisis only. What makes Greece different from most of the other European countries is its tradition of political radicalism. Consensual politics was 14 A S P E N R E V I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y support for all kind of anti-austerity protests that swept the country in the last seven years. Syriza succeeded to convince a lot of Greeks that its electoral victory equals regaining the political sovereignty of Greece and the resurrection of Greek democracy. It is worth pointing out that the Greek electoral system also makes it easier for a radical left government to emerge, rather than in Spain for example, because it allows the winner of the elections to gain 50 premium seats in the Parliament which makes it possible for a party that wins around 38 percent of the votes to end up with parliamentary majority. What makes Syriza very different from any other party of the radical left in Europe is that it has succeeded for the moment to take on its side all key constituencies of the traditional left— the workers, the unemployed, and the radical intelligentsia. Tsipras is the new leader of the Greek political left, and not simply the leader of the new left. Fears and Hopes Syriza is not calling for a dictatorship of the proletariat. It does not come from years of underground activities. Its leaders did not spend their best years in prison. Should the Europeans fear its coming to power? The reaction of the Greek middle class signals fear. Regardless of the fact that for the first time since the beginning of the crisis Greece has stepped out of recession, in the week prior to the elections Greek banks faced massive withdrawal of deposits. Businesses not only fear that left populism will destroy economy, but they also fear Syriza’s lack of governing experience. The fact that the radical left was never in power in the last 40 years convinced many to vote for them, but it is also the reason why the Greek middle class strongly mistrusts Syriza. The return of intellectuals into electoral politics is one of the distinctive contributions of the radical left. What the radical left brings to government when it comes to economic policies are some passionate academics who wrote inspiring books, but who are better at formulating problems than solving them. What also bothers many middle class Greeks is the lack of cohesion in Syriza—a difficult coalition composed of different left wing groups that have spent more of the last decades fighting each other than working together. The fear is that Syriza’s government will destroy recent achievements in terms of tax collection and efficiency, made by the pro-austerity government of Samaras, and it could additionally polarize Greek politics, thus increasing the popularity of the fascist Golden Dawn party. Analogies with Weimar Germany are on everybody’s mind. Syriza’s success, its transformation from a marginal coalition in the beginning of the crisis into the biggest political party in Greece is directly linked to Tsipras’s unconditional support for all kind of anti-austerity protests that swept the country in the last seven years. The way it frames the major political conflict in the country prove that Syriza is a classical populist party. It sees the conflict as a clash between the people (and here the Greek left includes also immigrants and other underprivileged groups) and the corrupt oligarchy that has been running Greece in the last decades. Syriza resurrects two of the distinctive features of the militant social democracy of the pre-war period, namely belief in the primacy of politics over economics and communitarianism. A S P E N R E V I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y 15 But while Greek business community is in panic, the attitudes in Europe towards the impact of the political change in Greece are much more nuanced. For different and even opposite reasons European politicians see in Syriza’s victory a great chance for moving the EU in the direction they favor. The critics of Merkel-inspired austerity paradigm hope that Syriza’s victory will be the turning point in Brussels’ response to the economic crisis. It will force Berlin to recognize the destructive social and political consequences of the current policies and will lead to more flexibility in implementing financial criteria adopted in the beginning of the crisis. In their view the EU is already moving in this direction (the QE of the ECB being the best example) but it will be the fear of success of the far left or far right that could convince Berlin to endorse the new reality without losing face. Some European reformers are encouraged by Syriza’s readiness to tax the Church, the shipping industry and the oligarch’s owned media and in their view the victory of the Radical Left is the best chance for genuine reformation of Greek society. The Merkel camp also sees an opportunity in the Greek vote. They believe that if Syriza’s government agrees to implement the conditions of the Bailout Memorandum of the Troika, this will be the best proof that there really is no alternative to the current economic policies. Because if even the radical left realizes that the alternative to Merkel equals committing a suicide, then nobody could press for further softening of the austerity measures. And if the new leftist government decides to reject the memorandum, this will be a godsent opportunity to expel Greece from the Eurozone and to prove—the painful way—that the alternative really is a suicide. Greek economy would be hurt so bad that nobody in their right mind would be interested in replicating the experience. And what makes the situation so different than the Greek exit crisis of 2012 is that now the Greek exit would not threaten the eurozone. 16 A S P E N R E V What is now clear is that Syriza’s victory put under pressure the core matrix of the EU architecture, namely “policy without politics in Brussels and politics without policies on the national level,” the unwritten law that European voters should either accept the fact that in the framework of the EU they could change governments but not major economic policies, or they have to be ready to leave the Union. In the case of Greece it is the government of the radical left that will have to make this difficult choice and prove that it and it alone can dismantle the oligarchical model of Greek politics. At this stage Syriza insists to be the executor of the will of the people, but the difficulty comes from the fact that the majority of Greeks both want their country to stay in the eurozone and reject the very Memorandum that allows others to tolerate Greece’s presence in the eurozone. So here is another definition of the radical left today: it is not radical because it comes with new radical ideas, but because it is facing radical questions and unlike some of the centrist parties, for the left it will be more difficult not to answer them. And when everybody is focused on Syriza’s economic policy, the question remains what will be the foreign policy of the radical left. For example, can sanctions against Russia survive now that Tsipras is the new Prime Minister of Greece? I VA N K R A S T E V is a Bulgarian political scientist. He is President of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna and a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Photo: Center for Liberal Strategies I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y How Syriza Came to Power John Psaropoulos Alexis Tsipras dared to read the crisis as an opportunity to beat the two-party system Syriza, the radical left coalition, came to power on January 25 with 36.3 percent of the vote. It rules in coalition with the right-wing Independent Greeks, with which it shares a populist, anti-austerity agenda. It is Greece’s first predominantly left-wing government, and claims to be the vanguard of a Europe-wide revolution against austerity. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ central election promise is simple: to restore Greek sovereignty and growth. To do this, he wants to redirect the country’s sliver of surplus wealth from overseas creditors to the poor and battered middle class. And to achieve that, he has to negotiate a new treaty with Greece’s creditors—the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund. Five years of government spending cuts mandated by Greece’s creditors balanced the budget in 2013 for the first time in decades. The fact that the Greek state now lives within tax revenues weakens the argument for further borrowing, whose sole purpose is to pay off older debt. Syriza argues that austerity has done its job and cannot be a prescription for the growth Greece now needs in order to pay off its EUR 321bn debt (175 percent of GDP). On the contrary, it has deepened a recession that claimed a quarter of the Greek economy and produced unemployment of 25 percent—something the IMF revealed in a controversial paper in 2013.1 A S P E N R E V I E W / C “The biggest loan in human history was given on condition that incomes would shrink, and from these shrinking incomes debts both old and new would have to be repaid,” said incoming Finance Minister Yianis Varoufakis on his first day on the job. “It didn’t take an economist to see that… we’d repeatedly fail to graduate from this process.” Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ central election promise is simple: to restore Greek sovereignty and growth. To do this, he wants to redirect the country’s sliver of surplus wealth from overseas creditors to the poor and battered middle class. Tsipras wants to provide food and electricity to dispossessed households; extend healthcare to those who have lost their coverage—an estimated quarter of the population; and restore O V E R S T O R Y 17 pensions that have been reduced. He insists that he does not aim to recreate deficits to fund this. But Greece remains precariously perched. Tax revenues fell sharply in late 2014, producing a smaller-than-forecast primary surplus of EUR 1.8bn. “I think that the government faces a very difficult task because Greece has funding needs of more than EUR 20bn this year,” says Miranda Xafa, Greece’s former representative to the IMF. “Syriza has chosen the path of confrontation that could lead to an accident which would take the form of a default on the payment of the external debt. And the next step would be social unrest, capital flight and eventually Grexit,” she says using an abbreviated term for ‘Greek exit from the eurozone.’ In 2008, he passed on the leadership to the 30-year-old Alexis Tsipras, a civil engineering graduate who had already shown a talent for politics. As a member of the Communist Youth and president of his school’s student body in 1991, he had led school sit-ins in protest against the conservative government’s education reforms, helping to defeat them. “[Tsipras] understood that people wanted a change of political personnel, a new generation. He had been [party] Secretary for Youth which means he was more charismatic than the other candidates,” says Alavanos. Meteoric Rise, Ideological Drift Under Tsipras, Syriza dared to read the crisis as an opportunity to beat the two-party system. Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou signed onto Greece’s first EUR 100bn facilitation loan in May 2010. By November 2011 he had resigned, after reaching an impasse with creditors over a slew of austerity measures. An interim technocratic government was installed under former central banker Loukas Papademos. Its job was to force austerity measures through parliament, negotiate the EUR 100bn discount of Greek debt in private hands, sign onto a second EUR 140bn loan and declare elections. Under pressure from European leaders, conservative New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras—a bailout denouncer—joined the socialists in supporting the Papademos government. The May 2012 elections were a political earthquake. New Democracy had suffered by abandoning its anti-bailout stance; but the s ocialists had fallen from 44 percent of the popular vote in 2009 to just 13.18 percent. They had been replaced as the leading center-left force by Syriza, which rebounded from the brink of political extinction to claim 16.78 percent, quadrupling its 2009 vote. Greece’s two-party system was over: with some 45 percent of the vote going to anti-bailout parties, Greece had produced a hung parliament and could not govern itself. In vain, Samaras and Humble Beginnings Syriza was founded as an electoral alliance between the Moscow-oriented Greek Communist Party (KKE) and the Eurocentric communists of the Greek left. As the Coalition of the Left and of Progress (Synaspismos), they took an impressive 13 percent of the vote in June 1989. The fall of Communism the following year split them between Stalinists and reformists. The former retreated to the KKE. The r eformists turned Synaspismos into a political party. Throughout the 1990s, both groups fought for political survival in low, single-digit figures. It was not until 2006, when party leader Alekos Alavanos campaigned against higher education reform that Synaspismos, now renamed Syriza, really saw a chance of appealing to an audience outside the traditional left. It soared to 17 percent approval ratings in some opinion polls, yet still scored only five percent of the vote in the 2007 election. “The party’s gains in 2007 may not have been great, but Syriza was already beginning to exert an influence on the more radical wing of Pasok, which saw their party’s stagnation and dead end,” says former Syriza leader Alekos Alavanos. 18 A S P E N R E V I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y new socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos tried to convince Tsipras to join them in a pro-bailout coalition. The week-long wooing of Tsipras only cemented his status as the new political force to be reckoned with. In a rematch the following month, Greeks voted their fear of default only marginally above their loathing of austerity. New Democracy came out ahead with 29.66 percent of the vote, but Syriza leapt forward by ten points to become the main opposition party. The tectonic shift was now complete. New Democracy had replaced the socialists as the principal Europeanist party, and Syriza had replaced New Democracy as the principal bailout denouncers. and June elections it took another step towards the political center: the party did not oppose the bailout loans that keep Greece afloat, it said, merely the austerity memoranda that accompany them. In dropping the threat of a unilateral default, Syriza crossed the line from pure bailout denunciator to bailout renegotiator, seizing New Democracy’s more nuanced electoral platform. This shift was emphasized in this year’s election. “We belong to the European family and we are going to find a solution together,” said Syriza’s chief economist Yiannis Milios. “No one wants to destroy the other. We will not default. We will cooperate.” Syriza has replaced the threat of unilateral default with political correctness. “You’re worried that if a Syriza government comes along… the almighty Germans or whoever else will chop off our head, stick it on a pike and carry it around saying, ‘here’s what happens to people who vote for Syriza’,” Deputy Prime Minister Yiannis Dragasakis recently told a panel of fellow economists. “Does anyone believe that such a Europe has any kind of future?” Why Syriza? “Syriza, did a very clever thing in 2012,” says Alavanos. “It was the only party that talked about an alternative government. The Greeks were looking for an alternative.” Alavanos says the Greek Communist Party (KKE) could have stepped into the breach, “but the KKE doesn’t do politics; it just wants to protect its ideological base.” Less explicable to Alavanos is why the rightwing Popular Orthodox Congress (LAOS) didn’t occupy that space. “It had more votes than Syriza in 2009. It could have a populist, right-wing, anti-capitalist rhetoric, and it could combine this with an anti-immigration policy, which the left cannot do. It could be a [Marine] Le Pen phenomenon.” LAOS instead joined the coalition backing the austerity government of Papademos, and Greek voters voted it out of parliament. Syriza had come a long way not merely by becoming the people’s voice against austerity; what gave it its edge is that it distinguished between pro-euro and pro-austerity politics. An overwhelming majority of Greeks supported Greece’s remaining within the eurozone but not the austerity imposed by the creditors. In May 2012, Syriza vowed never to jeopardize Greece’s eurozone membership. Between the May A S P E N R E V I E W / C Nuance and Omission Syriza’s rise to a potential ruling party had other, far-reaching effects on its message after 2012. A civil disobedience movement called “den plirono” (“I won’t pay”) had burgeoned during the crisis, as many Greeks started driving through motorway toll posts without paying. The campaign opposed extraordinary taxes levied during the crisis and even utility bills. Syriza actively encouraged it. When financial fraud inspectors arrested a restaurateur on the island of Hydra for failing to issue receipts in August 2012, Syriza MPs applauded the local population for besieging them in the local police precinct. Theodoros Dritsas, now Minister of the Merchant Marine, deplored the police “display of authoritarianism.”2 In early November, however, Syriza held a party congress to consolidate its positions and muffle O V E R S T O R Y 19 Although it kept its 2012 manifesto for this election, Syriza de-emphasized major commitments. It stopped talking about nationalizing the banking system and handing it over to co-operatives, where it would be re-purposed to deliver liquidity to small and medium-sized enterprises. (Interviewed shortly before the election, Milios said “the banks are stable nowadays. They have passed the stress tests of Black Rock and the European Central Bank. They belong to the European system of banks and they are being overlooked by the ECB.”) Syriza also stopped talking about taxing the rich at 75 percent, up from the current 45 percent, fearing capital flight. It moved towards the middle class and stopped talking about raising taxes on businesses: more than 90 percent of employment in Greece comes from some 400,000 small and medium-sized enterprises. Gone, too, is talk of renationalizing any privatized state companies. Syriza, in short, has transitioned to a more center-left position and taken over the socialist party’s voter base. It is ideologically palatable to the Greek mainstream. But voters are waiting to see whether it wins its three big gambles: to reach a new testament with creditors within the European family; to achieve growth and create jobs; and to spend up to EUR 11bn a year on a social safety net. many of its more extreme voices. It quickly dropped its exhortations for civil disobedience, espousing by November 22 “fair and proportional” toll charges “with discounts for frequent users.” 3 This change in stance helped the conservative government create a EUR 2.9bn primary surplus in 2013, but displeased many on the party’s left fringe. “The point of the 2012 congress was to turn a collection of components into a party and [Tsipras] succeeded in that,” says Vasilis Karasmanis, a philosophy professor and political observer at the Athens Polytechnic. “The components are an anachronism.” The party’s rise to power also led it to quietly drop its opposition to a 50-seat bonus the current electoral law awards to the first party in the 300-seat legislature. (The remaining 250 seats are awarded on a proportional basis to the parties that clear a three percent threshold.) The measure is designed to strengthen the chances of a government being formed, but while Syriza was a fringe party it demanded proportional representation across the board—a traditional leftwing mantra. Syriza’s argument was that the bonus has helped propagate the two-party system, enabling the socialists and conservatives to rule Greece alternately for the last 40 years. Syriza Euro-MP Manolis Glezos, embarrassed the party last October, when he repeated the traditional party position: “We will try to persuade the Greek people to elect us without the bonus. But if we win with the bonus, as we’ve said before, we will immediately abolish this electoral law and declare repeat elections, which will be a simple battle without deceit.”4 Karasmanis calls Syriza’s silent acceptance of the 50 seat bonus now “an ideological about-turn of the first order.” JOHN PSAROPOULOS is an independent journalist based in Athens Photo: Archive John Psaropoulos 1 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13156.pdf 2 http://www.tovima.gr/society/article/?aid=471306 3 https://denplirono.wordpress.com/2012/12/08/ 4 http://www.protothema.gr/politics/article/421757/giati-o-suriza-leei-ohi-stin-protasi-glezou-kata-tou-bonous-ton-50-edron-/ 20 A S P E N R E V I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y The Left—Ghost of the Past or the Progressive Left in Germany? Ulrike Guérot From the European perspective, it is a pity in a way that the Left Party somehow deadlocks the left party spectrum in Germany and keeps the German left forces away from coming back to government power united. The second and successful launch of a red-red-green coalition in Thuringia, East ‑Germany, on December 5 has created a political landmark in Germany. For the first time, Die Linke provides a Minister-President to a German state: Bodo Ramelow. The head of the conservative CSU in Bavaria, Horst Seehofer, announced a new “calculation of time” for Germany and, in a rather scaremongering way, saw Germany nearly slipping into a new red dictatorship, as if Ramelow was a former agent of the Stasi, the state security service of the communist German Democratic Republic (GDR). Seehofer’s secretary spoke of “a day of shame” for the united Germany; and the subsequent political fuss (or hysteria, in the words of social democratic chief Sigmar Gabriel) was amazingly loud. Weeks before the election day, the positioning of Die Linke with respect to the Unrechtsregime (“unjust regime”) of former GDR and whether Die Linke would clearly distance itself from it, had filled headlines, leading to a hairsplitting semantic discussion about how former GDR should—or must?—be entitled. A S P E N R E V I E W / C It didn’t help, as Thuringians were not scared: the party came out second with 28% of vote, second to the CDU with 33.5%. The SPD got only 12%, the Greens barely entered the Landtag (the regional parliament); whereas the newcomer AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) could proudly announce 10.6% success. As the christian democratic CDU had committed itself to by no means enter a coalition with AfD (tacitly regretted by some politicians, who want to keep that gate open for the party, after the natural CDU coalition party, the liberal FDP got only some 2% in Thuringia), the only possible governing coalition was red-red-green, meaning Die Linke, the social democrats and the Greens, with a majority of one seat only. This is not a real novelty in Germany though, as it had been tested out already in some minor local governments, and the senate of Berlin had for a short time in 2001/2002 a red-green minority government supported by the PDS, the predecessor party of Die Linke. But never ever has a politician from Die Linke governed a German Bundesland, even if some have been fancying this policy option for long—to move out of the O V E R S T O R Y 21 a lternativlos-setting (“without alternative”) of Merkel reign since 2005. The 58-year-old protestant Bodo Ramelow, is indeed the man to test out this red coalition. Sympathetic and down-to-earth, he scarcely resembles a red Revoluzzer. Bodo Ramelow is from the West, not born in former GDR. He has a worker’s family background, no academic education, and has been engaged in trade union for years, before joining very early—in 1994 already—the PDS, the succession party of the communist SED, single political party of former GDR. All these features may predestine him for being a non-establishment politician, which feels fresh for a lot of people in Germany. Ramelow is not a wrangler, he represents the more moderate aisle of Die Linke, in counterpart to Oskar Lafontaine. He is not the brilliant intellectual that Gregor Gysi represents in the party; nor the social conscience and mother figure that Die Linke has in Sahra Wagenknecht; and neither is he the fresh dynamism prototype Die Linke has found in its new president, Katja Kipping. Bodo Ramelow is just serious. And so he started nearly without noise, just committed to do good work and to change the country for the better. issues that will make a red-red-green coalition on the national level—a nightmare scenario for many Germans—impossible for long. For instance, the party is not abandoning its refusal of all international institutions where Germany is a member—NATO, EU. With this, the party goes de facto against the constitutional and legal standards of the federal republic—and is thus barely eligible. Further, the party is strongly against all collective military missions the Bundeswehr could be engaged in, even if there is an UN-mandate, and it does not offer clear alternatives to dealing with international conflicts. The other reason why red-red-green seems highly unlikely in the long run comes on the national level from the social democrats. Sigmar Gabriel has been missing a ‘red signature’ in most policy topics, from energy policy (defending carbon power stations) to trade policy (defending TTIP and CETA) or wealth tax (which he cancelled), much to the resistance of his own party. The stance in energy policy is obviously due to inner party tactics, where Sigmar Gabriel does not want to harm Hannelore Kraft, Minister-President in North-Rhine-Westphalia—a Bundesland, which is traditionally enormously important for the SPD and which (still) lives from coal and is dominated by the old energy giants such as RWE. Furthermore, many people in the Berlin policy circle were especially disappointed during a public discussion Sigmar Gabriel prominently had with Thomas Piketty, where he waved aside any idea of wealth tax. In this respect, the SPD has ceased to be a left party, and is not occupying the political space in a truly social-democratic way. The only ‘left’ achievement the SPD can point to in recent months is the introduction of a minimum wage of EUR 8.50, after endless battles within the great coalition and with the trade unions— which are herewith losing their key sovereignty to negotiate wages within the German system of Tarifhoheit (the independent negotiation system between employers association and trade unions structured by industry branches, and The party has kept such stance on many policy issues that will make a red-red-green coalition on the national level impossible for long. In this respect, Bodo Ramelow is rather the exception to the norm for Die Linke, in the sense that he is far from being radical in his positions. This stands nearly in contrast to the overall party, which has kept such stance on many policy 22 A S P E N R E V I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y which is a traditional stand-alone feature in German working relations): as much as trade unions welcomed the minimum wage, as much they do suffer from this de facto structural disempowerment. In reaction, some SPD members have recently started a “left platform” (Magdeburger Plattform) against its own party head, in order to politically conquer left territory again. It seems evident to without needing AfD for the national elections in 2017. It is a flirt based on mutuality from many Greens, as the Greens are actually fiscally more conservative than large parts of the SPD and, this is a party of “better-earners” who have no blue-collar, unemployed or precarious electorate to cater to with redistribution or social policies. In the middle of all these tactical games shaping the run for the 2017 elections, Die Linke can sit this out. Without coming close to (or even denying) government responsibility except Thuringia, it can use its clear left positioning and profile to steal voters from the social democrats in order to continuously disturb the left camp, and in a way, keep it away from uniting precisely in the Thuringia way: left-left-Green. In a way The Left, being probably the only party of the three which puts program before government, has nothing to lose. The real risk for the Left might, indeed, be to loss of its place as the only real protest German party to AfD, which is competing for this political space too: les extremes se touchent… A shift of votes, as bizarre as it may sound, can be observed from The Left to AfD. It is also interesting that AfD voters and voters of Die Linke tend to converge in their opinion more than the other parties, e.g. when it comes to opinions on Islam, migration etc. The AfD may unfold as the more ‘hipster’ protest party, which can also fit into the rather bourgeois establishment of Germany, being a party run by professors, such as its President Bernd Lucke, former president of BDI, the prominent German Industry Association. This gives the party a sort of distinguished touch and make it salonfähig, all the while keeping its anti-euro, anti-migration and anti-establishment policy profile attractive for the lowest quintal of German society. The Left also displays populist features. A recent opinion poll1 on whether or not Islam belongs to Germany, found that for a majority of voters of The Left (58%) Islam does not belong in Germany, which is—although displaying a huge discrepancy in the numbers—the second ranking The real risk for the Left might, indeed, be to loss of its place as the only real protest German party to AfD, which is competing for this political space too: les extremes se touchent… many social democrats that Die Linke is the winner of Gabriel’s shift to the right, which also does not correspond to the quite leftist campaigning slogans (“more taxes for the wealthy”) the SPD had in the national elections of 2013. The SPD being locked in a great coalition and politically squeezed in a position between the conservative CDU and Die Linke might reveal as one of the biggest political tragedies for the party, which is losing contours—and votes. De facto, the SPD sits in 14 out of 16 Landtage (in various constellations), without gaining any political visibility: a tragedy not only for the party, but also for the German left in total—the left participates in barely any coalition and thus consequently has no governing option in the near future; whereas Angela Merkel, pragmatic as can be, is already reaching out to the Greens to open up a possible coalition option beyond great coalition and A S P E N R E V I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y 23 of all German parties after the AfD-voters (96%). All other party voters do not display majorities on this question, although the CDU comes very close (for 49% of CDU voters believe that Islam does not belong in Germany), whereas other party voters only reach pluralities on this question (SPD: 38%; Greens: 26%). Similarly—and again despite a huge difference in the numbers—with 21% the Left ranks second after AfD (70%) when it comes to sympathy for Pegida, the new anti-Islam movement of Germany, which is organizing demonstrations every Monday, especially in Dresden. The Left thus also seems to slightly move out of the German mainstream on the question of Islam and migration and to flirt with right-wing populism; while, on core economic and financial policy issues such as the euro and on foreign and security questions, it is placing itself at the extreme left of the political spectrum. From the European perspective, which currently sees a growing left and anti-austerity movements throughout the EU, it is a pity in a way that the Left Party somehow deadlocks the left party spectrum in Germany and keeps the German left forces away from coming back to government power united: by insisting on irrational positions with respect to the EU, NATO or the UN. As a matter of fact, during the eurocrisis, the Left was the party whose politicians came closest to the reading and analysis many non-Germans had of the political economy of the eurozone: that Germany’s trade deficit is a problem; that Germany would need to increase its demand; that Germany is doing ‘beggar-thyneighbor-policy’ and wage-dumping, which are all taboo-positions for the German political mainstream. It could probably help balancing out the current German position on the euro-crisis and austerity policy, had the Left more political weight in Germany. The Left could accommodate the political economy arguments of Germany’s neighbors and fellow European countries and serve as an intellectual carrier for an aggregated European view on how the political and social economy of eurozone should be handled. Doing so, the Left could demonstrate that Germany gives an ear to the political concerns of its neighbors and contribute to attenuate the current discussion about the crude German hegemonic position in Europe. But the Left is still kept out of policy making in Germany—and this will last until the party moves out of having its head-in-the-sand attitude. ULRIKE GUÉROT Founder & Director, The European Democracy Lab, Berlin Photo: Private Ulrike Guérot 1 http://www.heute.de/islam-gehoert-zu-deutschland-nation-gespalten-nur-17-prozent-finden-pegida-gut-36757200.html 24 A S P E N R E V I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y In Search of Meaning: 21st Century Leftist Imaginarium Frank Furedi Why are many of the ideas usually associated with the right in the nineteenth century—fear of progress, of science, of modernity and of collective action—today closely linked with the outlook of left-wing thinkers? The 21st century has already experienced more than its share of economic crises. There is nothing remarkable about periodic economic recessions in the global capitalist economy. What is remarkable is that for the first time in the modern era there is no plausible articulate left-wing alternative that can capture the imagination of the public. The irrelevance of ideals traditionally associated with the left where forcefully stated by a British left wing commentator Richard Seymour, who lamented: “How can it be that more than six years since the credit crunch, with austerity under way for more than three years, the left has barely showed signs of life, let alone scored a significant victory?”1 The answer to this crie de coeur is devastatingly obvious. In the 21st century the disintegration of the Left has been underwritten by the erosion of almost all the political principles and values that were traditionally associated with this movement. One of the most fascinating developments in recent years has been the project of turning the failure to articulate a left-wing vision of the future into a positive virtue. The Occupy A S P E N R E V I E W / C Movement self-consciously avoided espousing political principles and values. Its refusal or inability to formulate political demands is regularly applauded by its supporters in the media. Commentators praise them for “raising questions,”“highlighting problems” and “serving as the conscience of society.” “Those who deride [Occupy] for its lack of concrete demands simply don’t understand its strategic function,” lectured Gary Younge of the Guardian. His piece titled “Who knows where the occupations are going—it’s just great to be moving” expressed the depoliticized sensibility of the 21st century leftist.2 Such attitudes communicate a disturbing acquiescence to failure and irrelevance. The American political consultant George Lakoff articulated this approach in unambiguous terms when he stated that “I think that it is a good thing that the occupation movement is not making specific policy demands.” Why? Because, “If it did, the movement would become about those demands” and if “the demands were not met, the movement would be seen as having failed,” he argued.3 O V E R S T O R Y 25 Lost for Words Almost the entire vocabulary of 21st century leftism has a meaning that is radically different and often directly opposed to the way those words were understood in in the 18th, 19th and most of the 20th century. Take the term anti-capitalism. The radical critique of capitalism was founded on the premise that this system of production could not syste matically develop the productive forces and therefore could provide a decent standard of living for all. The claim that capitalism was unable to deliver the goods was frequently presented as an argument for a radically different society by many socialists and communists. The mainstream left also believed that capitalism could not be relied on to create the wealth necessary for the maintenance of a prosperous society. The term anti-capitalism today is rarely associated with the claim that this system of production lacks a thrust toward development. On the contrary, the focus of criticism movements like Occupy is that capitalism develops far too fast and that this has destructive consequences for both the environment and for people. The fear today is that there is far too much development and that capitalism produces too many things. “Today, with its dysfunctional side effects, we are more aware of the dangers; we now experience the inexorable development of productive forces and the global expansion of Western civilization more as threats,” argues Jürgen Habermas, a leading German leftist social theorist.4 If anything, for Habermas capitalism has become much too efficient. In direct contrast to the traditions of the labor movement of the past, those who define themselves as left-wing today are weary of economic and technological development. Apprehension about fast rates of economic growth and the development of new technology is linked to a sense of insecurity regarding change. In what constitutes a dramatic reversal of roles, the left appears to be more uncomfortable in dealing with change than the right. 26 A S P E N R E V Anxiety towards experimentation and economic growth has been reinterpreted by today’s cultural and political elites as a risk. Human progress, once embraced as a wholly desirable enterprise is today represented as a risk. And a risk is invariably interpreted as a danger to be avoided or minimized. Paradoxically, it is those who call themselves left-wing who have become most risk-averse and most vociferous in denouncing the idea of progress. In the nineteenth century, the association of anti-capitalism with hostility to progress was confined to the Luddites and the conservative reaction to modernity. Radicals, liberals and socialists were for progress. Today, the bitterest opponents of progress are the radical anti-capitalist critics of production and development. In previous times radical opponents of capitalism denounced the system for failing to provide people with the material possessions they required for a decent life. Today’s anti-capitalists believe that we (at least in the West) have too many possessions and reject the “mindless consumerism” perpetuated by the market. An anti-modernist critique of mass society often lurks behind the label of anti-capitalism. In the first half of the twentieth century anti ‑modernist sentiments tended to be linked to the conservative reaction to change. In Europe, conservative thinkers felt uncomfortable with new forms of popular culture and regarded Hollywood, jazz and the crass materialism of the US with dread. Today a similar response is frequently proclaimed by the lifestyle politics of radical activists. Hating MTV, Nike, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s or Starbucks has become an integral feature of leftist identity. Many of the ideas usually associated with the right in the nineteenth century—fear of progress, of science, of modernity and of collective action—are today closely linked with the outlook of left-wing thinkers. Friedrich Nietzsche, the philosopher of the right at the turn of the 20th century is now fashionable among the cultural I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y left and post-modernist intelligentsia. As Stephen Bronner notes in his important study Reclaiming the Enlightenment, “ideas long associated with reactionary movements—the privileging of experience over reason, national or ethnic identity over internationalism […] the community over the individual, custom over innovation, myth over science—have entered the thinking of the American left.”5 The political scientist Brian Barry agrees. He argues that “during most of both the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, attitudes to the Enlightenment marked the main division between left and right.” But now the right’s critique of the Enlightenment has “gained currency among those who see themselves as being on the left.”6 Hostility to universalist values is most pronounced among the cultural left. Yet once the left became disengaged from the traditions of the Enlightenment, it lost touch with the political imagination that inspired the progressive movement of the past two centuries. about their lifestyles or along cultural, ethnic and class lines it is rare to experience the kind of solidarity that binds 99 percent of people together. Historically the claim to represent or to speak on behalf of everyone is usually confined to charismatic religious leaders, political charlatans or populist dictators. The embrace of the depoliticized fantasy of “We are 99 percent” is integral to an imaginarium that has not only lost touch with reality but also relies on the intellectual and political resources usually associated with the reactionary right. Friedrich Nietzsche, the philosopher of the right at the turn of the 20th century is now fashionable among the cultural left and post‑modernist intelligentsia. The Zombie Left The cover of Time Magazine (24th October 2011) was titled “The Return of the Silent Majority.” The title referred to the growth of Occupy movement. The title echoed the movement’s fantasy claim that it represented the 99%. But its reference to the ‘silent majority’ inadvertently acknowledged the powerful affinity that the supporters of “We are 99 percent” had with the original formulator of the term silent majority. For it was Richard Nixon, who in his famous November 1969 speech referred to “forgotten Americans” as the “Silent Majority.” So “The Return of the Silent Majority” represents the return of the zombie version of Nixon’s silent majority as the 99 percent. It is essential to note that like Nixon’s forgotten Americans, 99 percent encompasses a very high proportion of the people. So when protestors claim that “I am 99%” they refer to virtually everyone in society. It is about as close as you can get to unanimity. In a world where communities are often divided into people squabbling A S P E N R E V I E W / C Probably the most distinct and innovative ideal that characterizes the contemporary leftist imagination is that of social justice. In recent years, the zombie version of leftism, particularly in the Anglo-American context has become closely linked with the idea of “social justice.” Yet, the concept of social justice constitutes a fundamental break from traditional progressive thought. It eschews the project of social transformation, development and progress and embraces the worldview of redistribution of resources and privileges in society. In its current usage social justice has in its focus redistribution of resources and opportunity between different cultural, ethnic and lifestyle-oriented groups. It is at odds with redistributionist views of liberals, which targeted individuals and of socialists who O V E R S T O R Y 27 focused on classes. Adherents of social justice are instinctively anti-universalists and celebrate the politics of identity. Social justice expresses a worldview committed to avoiding uncertainty and risky change through demanding that the state provides us with economic and existential security. From this standpoint, progress is proportional to the expansion of legal and quasi-legal oversight into everyday life. From the perspective of those who demand social justice, the proliferation of ‘rights’ and redistribution of wealth are the main markers of a progressive society. Paradoxically the idea of social justice was historically associated with movements that were suspicious of and uncomfortable with progress. The term was coined by the Jesuit Luigi Taparelli in 1840. His aim was to reconstitute Catholic theological ideals on a social foundation. In the century that followed, ‘social justice’ was upheld by movements that were fearful of the future and which sought to contain the dynamic towards progress. Probably one of the best-known advocates of social justice in the inter-war period was Father Charles Edward Coughlin. This charismatic American demagogue and populist xenophobe set up the National Union of Social Justice in 1934. Through his popular radio broadcasts, which regularly attracted audiences of 30million, he became one of the most influential political figures in the United States. Coughlin praised Hitler and Mussolini’s crusade against communism and denounced President Roosevelt for being in the pocket of Jewish bankers. Here, ‘social justice’ was about condemning crooked financiers and putting forward a narrow, defensive appeal for the redistribution of resources. Today’s campaigners for social justice bear little resemblance to their ideological ancestors. The current Occupy movement would be horrified by Coughlin’s racist ramblings, yet they would find that some of the ideas expressed in his weekly newspaper Social Justice were not a million miles away from their own. Hiding behind the fantasy of the 99 percent, today’s so-called leftist shares the sensibility of classical reactionaries who are wedded to the idea that the unsettling effects of change need to be contained by a vision that is entirely fixed on getting along with the present. Like all anti-Enlightenment ideals, that of social justice expresses the conservative impulse of restraining change. There was a time when attitude towards the Enlightenment played an important role in distinguishing the difference between left and right. The left enthusiastically embraced the Enlightenment ideals of reason, progress and universalism, whilst the right tended to oppose them. Today there is little that divides left from right on this matter. In such circumstances the left-wing imagination has become emptied of any distinct meaning. FRANK FUREDI is the author of Authority: A Sociological Introduction, Cambridge University Press, 2013. Photo: Matthias Haslauer http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/28/right-only-economic-solution-austerity. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/nov/06/knows-occupations-going-great-moving. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/george-lakoff/occupy-wall-street_b_1019448.html. Jurgen Habermas ‘Popular Sovereignty as Procedure’ in Bohman, J. & Rehg, W. (1999) (eds) Deliberative Democracy: Essays On Reason and Politics, MIT Press, p.37. 5 Bronner, S.E. (2004) Reclaiming The Enlightenment, Columbia University Press, p.1. 6 Barry, B (2001) Culture and Equality: An Egalitarian Critique of Multiculturalism, Polity Press p.9. 1 2 3 4 28 A S P E N R E V I E W / C O V E R S T O R Y MARTIN M. ŠIMEČKA The Incomprehensible Left The pro-Russian attitude of the Czech and Slovak Left: a betrayal of identity? “ We would certainly not agree if, all of a sudden, someone were to make a territorial claim against our country, as was the case in Czechoslovakia in the previous century.” These words, uttered by Slovakia’s President Andrej Kiska in his New Year address, and alluding to the Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, ought to be self-evident as guidance for the geopolitical orientation of the Czechs and Slovaks. Who else, if not these two nations, given their historical experience, should feel profound empathy when Ukraine is invaded by Russia? Nonetheless, this is not the case. Their criticism of the sanctions against Russia has earned the Czech and Slovak governments a reputation as the Kremlin’s Trojan horse in the EU. The Czech President Miloš Zeman, whose close adviser is the head of the Czech branch of Russian company Lukoil, has advised the Ukrainians to accept Russia’s proposal to transform the country into a federation, while Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has publicly declared his opposition to the sanctions against Moscow and suggested that we should come to terms with the annexation of Crimea. There have been a number of similarly shameful statements lately, and they all have one thing in common: they reflect the position of a considerable section of the Czech and Slovak Left. This is really quite surprising. After all, we are talking of the same left-of-center parties that claim allegiance to the legacy of the 1968 Prague A S P E N R E V I E W / C MARTIN M. ŠIMEČKA is editor of the Czech weekly Respekt Photo: Archive Martin M. Šimečka Spring, which for them represents a high point in their history and core identity that had to be laboriously restored after 1989 because, unlike their Hungarian and Polish counterparts, these parties could not build on their 1980s ideological record. Yet, although the Prague Spring was crushed by the Russian-led invasion, the present-day Czech and Slovak left have found all sorts of justifications for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which seem to come right out of the 1968 playbook. This defies logic, particularly since Putin’s Russia is a right-wing dictatorship that has nothing whatsoever to do with left-wing ideology. What is going on in the mind of the O M M E N T 29 Czech and Slovak left? A possible explanation, derived from depth psychology, comes to mind: the Czech and Slovak left have succumbed to Stockholm syndrome of the hostage who falls in love with his captor. However, the real explanation is likely to be less romantic even though emotions and passions do play a key role in it. and Slovakia‘s Smer—are still made up of many rank-and-file members as well as party officials who tied their early careers in the 1980s to membership of the Communist Party. These are people who have retained fond memories of the normalization era under Gustáv Husák as well as of Leonid Brezhnev’s Soviet Union, and who consider Putin’s Russia its legitimate successor. They can’t say this out aloud because both countries officially regard the normalization period as a dark age but their nostalgia for the 1980s is an open secret. They still hold key positions in both parties of the left and neither Fico, nor his Czech counterpart Bohuslav Sobotka, have any desire to antagonize this constituency by being critical of the Kremlin. Another, equally pragmatic reason, is the simple fact that the Czech and Slovak right (with the notable exception of the former Czech President Václav Klaus) has been traditionally anti‑Russian. They have established a kind of ideological monopoly on opposition to Moscow, using it to crush the left and accusing it of being attached to Russia and thus betraying national interests. In the absence of a convincing response to these—not always fair—accusations, the left has decided to turn this disadvantage into an advantage, proudly adopting the label of Russophiles. Both major political parties on the left— the Czech Social Democratic Party, ČSSD, and Slovakia‘s Smer—are still made up of many rank‑and ‑file members as well as party officials who tied their early careers in the 1980s to membership of the Communist Party. Party Functionaries One would be hard pressed to detect any rational political or economic reasoning in this positive attitude to Moscow. Unlike other (pro-Russian) countries such as Bulgaria, neither the Czech nor the Slovak Republic is dependent on the Russian economy, with exports to Russia no more than some four percent of the total volume of exports, the vast majority being headed for the EU. And the opening of reverse-flow pipelines has rendered the two countries less vulnerable to disruptions in gas supplies. That leaves political and psychological reasons. A possible political reason might be the fact that both major political parties on the left—the Czech Social Democratic Party, ČSSD, 30 A S P E N It’s All America’s Fault The two reasons mentioned above can be explained by external pressure, which has forced the left to adopt a position it would not necessarily have taken under normal circumstances. More worryingly though, the pro-Russian orientation on the part of the Czech and Slovak Left is quite possibly based on a voluntary decision and genuine conviction, and may be a true reflection of their frame of mind. Petr Uhl, the left-wing intellectual who spent nine years in communist prisons after 1968 and a legendary member of the Czech dissidents linked to Charter 77, praised Putin for allegedly R E V I E W / C O M M E N T having tamed Russia’s oligarchs (!), pointing out that this is something Ukrainian politicians have failed to do and adding that under Putin‘s leadership “Russia has broken free of a 15-yearlong crisis, which is one of the reasons why I hesitate to call Putin a dictator.” He criticizes Europe for rushing to express its support for the Kyiv government that came to power “thanks to Molotov cocktails on the Maidan.” Another left-wing intellectual heavyweight, the philosopher Václav Bělohradský, has wondered “why the EU and the US consider the referendum in the Crimean Autonomous Republic illegal and illegitimate, while declaring legitimate and legal the government (in Kyiv) installed by means of violent demonstrations.” Is there an explanation for this blindness? The strongest and most genuine motivation for defending Putin’s Russia seems to be the one that is also prevalent among the Western left: obsessive anti-Americanism. The Czech and Slovak left has used their opposition to the American invasion of Iraq as a key distinguishing factor in defining themselves against those on the right who supported the invasion and who are proud to this day to espouse this view even though it is no longer fashionable. Anti-Americanism is thus ingrained in A S P E N R E V I E W / C the ideological framework of the Czech and Slovak left and the fact that its adherents refuse to change their attitude despite the US being governed by the Democrat Barack Obama only confirms that the left has chosen to cultivate anti-Americanism as part of their brand. This, however, inevitably translates into support for Putin, who in his fierce criticism of the US makes the same arguments as the Czech and Slovak left. The old adage—my enemy’s enemy is my friend—has proven irresistible yet again. Unfortunately, the pro-Russian orientation of the Czech and Slovak left has seriously undermined both countries’ foreign relations as well as their reputation, since these parties play a leading role in the government of their respective countries, dictating their agendas. In Slovakia a certain corrective is provided by President Kiska, whose New Year address mentioned earlier is in line with his clearly pro-Western orientation, while in the Czech Republic Foreign Affairs Minister Lubomír Zaorálek has somewhat helped to repair the damage. However, the Czech and Slovak Republics won’t free themselves of Russia’s influence unless and until the right wins power again. That, however, may be some time coming. O M M E N T 31 Nuclear Nationalism Has Only Brought Misery The West should connect the problem of the Iranian nuclear program with human rights issues. You need to talk about them at the same time, in the same place—says Shirin Ebadi, the first Muslim Nobel Peace Prize laureate, in an interview with Maciej Nowicki. When President Rouhani assumed power, the West expected a visible liberalization in Iran. So far these hopes have come to nothing. Why? Rouhani is different from Ahmadinejad. He has always enjoyed a reputation of a moderate reformer. He has a nicer smile. And speaks better. In his campaign he offered many promises. But these promises were beyond his power. The scale of repression has not diminished at all. It started with a series of public executions. A few political prisoners were released as a symbolic gesture of goodwill, but most are still serving their sentences, often in appalling conditions. Persecution of religious minorities, Christians and Baha’is, and ethnic minorities, Kurds and Baluchi, is in full swing. Iran has chosen a softer line in nuclear negotiations (because it wants the sanctions to be lifted), but it in no way translates into internal reform. Why is it so? Because real power is in the hands of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the president can do very little. Even Rouhani’s talks with Obama required the consent of the Supreme Leader… Khatami was a president with marked democratic inclinations. He ruled for eight years. But he was unable to implement his program. Why would it be different today? Khamenei does not have a shred of tolerance and listens to nobody. A S P E N R E V I E W / I SHIRIN EBADI an Iranian lawyer and former judge, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2003 for her pioneering efforts to promote democracy and human rights, particularly for women and children. She was the first person from Iran and the first Muslim woman to receive the award. Photo: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty So there is no hope for changes in Iran? There is hope. But its source is not the government. It boils down to the fact that people will pressurize the government. And at some point the regime will have no other choice. N T E R V I E W 33 It was like that in 2009. And very little came out of it… I see it differently. Iranians are still resisting. Discontent is growing every day. Over 80% of the population thinks the worst about the government and about the direction Iran has been taking. It means that one day change will certainly come. I am sure of that. I only can’t say how soon it will happen. forces opposed to the agreement. There are many people associated with the regime who have made fortunes on the sanctions, some of them acquired unimaginable wealth. And this is the group promoting the ideology of “nuclear nationalism,” which is good only from the point of view of their interests. They are fiercely opposed to the agreement, for it would damage their interests. Also the American neoconservatives don’t want it. Where does your certainty come from? It comes from the fact that Iran has a strong civil society. The women’s movement in Iran is one of the most thriving throughout the Middle East. After the revolution many discriminatory laws against women were introduced, but Iranian women are highly educated. They form the majority (over 60%) of university students (it is in a sense a side-effect of discrimination—women invaded universities in order to escape the social restrictions imposed on them). Trade unions are also strong, although many of the leaders are in prison. We have a vigorous student movement, environmentalists, lawyers, human rights activists and very brave journalists. All this is an announcement of democratic change. Iranians have been living in the shadow of the revolution for 35 years and they also experienced a terrible, eight-years-long war with Iraq. This is more than enough for one generation. They don’t want to live like that any longer. They are weary of war and revolutionary violence. They want the changes to take place in a peaceful manner. Let us recall the Arab spring, it was successful in Tunisia, for there had been a strong civil society there. We sometimes hear the following argument: “If Iran decides not to acquire nuclear capabilities, ultimately it will find itself at the mercy of the US. In the mid-1990s the Ukraine abandoned its nuclear arsenal, in return receiving guarantees of inviolability of its borders, and as we know now, these guarantees were worth nothing.” Legitimacy of a regime requires something more than anti-Americanism and nuclear weapons. The decisive factor is the way it treats its own citizens. North Korea is fiercely anti-American and possesses nuclear weapons. Does anybody believe that North Korea has a good government? Iran has been screaming for years: “Death to America!” But its citizens are increasingly worse off. Iran is a country of double standards. Ordinary people cannot have access to social media like Facebook, for supposedly it is evil. But ministers use it. If a poor a man steals something, his hand is amputated, but officials who stole millions from the treasury are proudly strolling the streets. But not only the hardliners are calling for the continuation of the Iranian nuclear program. Most ordinary Iranians want it too. It was like that once, ordinary Iranians really perceived the nuclear program as a source of pride. Today they don’t care about it at all. Negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program are to end in June 2015. Do you think it will come to an agreement? I hope that the government will finally sign this agreement. If only because of the fact that the sanctions have driven millions of Iranians into poverty. On the other hand there are powerful 34 A S P E N R We usually hear a different story… Yes, because discussing the nuclear program in the media has not been allowed for ten years. E V I E W / I N T E R V I E W You have always spoken against both military intervention and sanctions. Why? I am against sanctions in their current form, for their only victims are the people of Iran. And what about intervention? It seems obvious: a military attack on Iran would only result in human rights being even less respected. We can see what happened in Iraq—fundamentalists have been hugely strengthened. Nobody is interested in human rights or freedom of speech. People only want security and nothing else. Some time ago I initiated surveys in which I asked ordinary people to express their opinion on that matter. An overwhelming majority of the respondents were in favor of terminating the nuclear program. Iran should be banned from access to international satellite platforms as soon as possible. For the programs broadcast by Iran are promoting hatred. So what can be done? First, the West should connect the problem of the Iranian nuclear program with human rights issues. You need to talk about them at the same time, in the same place. Our government is despicable when it organizes stamping on the American flag and continues to celebrate the “Day of Death to America.” But it is difficult to resist the impression that America is interested only in its own security. Human rights are not on the agenda yet. By the way, all nondemocratic regimes in the Middle East—Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates—are friends with America. If Washington stopped supporting these regimes, we would very soon see their end. The West must pay more attention to the principles it supposedly wants to defend. Second, I am in favor of sanctions, but more precisely targeted. The abolition of death penalty in Iran is unrealistic. I say that, although I am against death penalty. What the West should demand is abolition of public executions. It would at least be a good start. Iran should be banned from access to international satellite platforms as soon as possible. For the programs broadcast by Iran are promoting hatred. The list of ministers who violate human rights should be extended and these people should be denied entry to EU countries. Europe can be very rigorous when it deals with ordinary Iranians—relatives of people living in EU countries are often denied visas. But The government officially claims that it doesn’t want the bomb, but it is enriching uranium, for the country needs more nuclear energy. But this doesn’t make any sense. We are spending incredible amounts of money on enriching uranium—and the energy from that is satisfying just 3% of the demand. Iranian economists and engineers have said repeatedly that for the same money we could build much more efficient solar power plants. In Iran there is plenty of sunlight—but so far we haven’t spent a single dollar on solar energy. It is not a coincidence that Germany is closing down its nuclear plants after what happened in Fukushima. And Iran is in a much worse s ituation. Because of strict censorship very few people in my country realize that the location of the nuclear power plant in Busher is very dangerous. And that in 2013 there was an earthquake close by. I don’t believe that Iranians want a repeat of Fukushima. Meanwhile, contrary to common sense the government plans to build another nuclear power plant. A S P E N R E V I E W / I N T E R V I E W 35 Europe spreads a red carpet before representatives of the regime. Finally, bank accounts of the people in power in Iran should be frozen as soon as possible. It is unacceptable that they are able to make use of the dirty money made on sanctions. Dictators and their people always have the same hope—that when they retire or when the people overthrow them, they will emigrate and live a wonderful life for the money they have stolen. They have to be deprived of this opportunity. Making their world smaller is the most effective punishment. denominations some condemn abortion, but some accept it. There are Christians who oppose same-sex marriages and those who would allow them… You are the only Nobel Prize laureate in the history of Iran. How has it changed your life? The government had never accepted what I had been doing, and after the Nobel Prize my life became even more difficult. In 2008 an NGO founded by me was liquidated. In 2009 everything I had—including a house inherited from my parents—was confiscated and auctioned off. I was abroad at the time, so my husband and sister were arrested. My husband was tortured. He was ordered to repeat the false accusations against me and it was filmed. He said there, among other things, that I was a Western agent and that I was awarded the Nobel Prize in order to overthrow the government. This recording was shown on television. Such was the price I paid for my activities. Since then I haven’t been to Iran. I am not afraid of prison, I had been arrested before. But I have come to the conclusion that in this way I would be more useful to my country, because only from abroad I can speak the truth about Iran. So 10 months a year I travel all over the word speaking about what is happening in my country. Theoretically I live in London, but in fact I spend more time at airports. The Iranian regime has been repeatedly accused of violating human rights. When answering the critics, it often invokes cultural differences. But Iran has signed the relevant international conventions. And since it’s signed them, it must respect them. This is a universal code of conduct and has nothing to do with the West or the East, with Islam or Christianity. If Muslims want to create a declaration of human rights compatible with Islam, then a logical conclusion would be to write separate declarations for each religion, Christian, Judaic, Hindu, Buddhist, etc. And dozens of others. That would mean that the concept of human rights would cease to exist. People who think that Islam and human rights or Islam and democracy are incompatible with each other, usually belong to one of two cate gories: representatives of the West who want war or some Islamic governments who violate the rights of the people and seek justification for that. Just like all other religions, Islam allows various interpretations. In most countries stoning and cutting hands off have been abolished. But in Iran and Saudi Arabia these punishments are still in force. The Islamic veil is not mandatory everywhere. In Saudi Arabia a woman can’t drive a car, not to mention active presence in public life. But in Pakistan, Bangladesh or Indonesia there have been female prime ministers or presidents. Let us compare it with Christianity. Among its 36 A S P E N R MACIEJ NOWICKI is Deputy Editor In Chief of Aspen Review Central Europe. Photo: Maciej Nowicki E V I E W / I N T E R V I E W BOGDAN GÓRALCZYK New Chinese Foreign Policy Strategy A fter the collapse of the Soviet Union the Chinese communists, who had been taught in schools and party courses in the 1950s that “the Soviet Union today is our tomorrow,” realized that their fate also may have been sealed. Concerned about the future and the power of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Deng Xiaoping, the visionary of pro-market reforms and opening to the world, became active again, for the last time in his long life. In his political will from early 1992, he proposed seeking new solutions and development models among the “four economic tigers” (Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore) with a special emphasis on Singapore. Since that time, despite nominally preserving the system called “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” the regime in Beijing is building capitalism with Chinese characteristics, making ample use of the blessings of open markets and globalization. However, Deng Xiaoping left another will to his successors, called the strategy of 28 Chinese characters. Using old terms fully comprehensible only to the educated native elites, he ordered them, among other things, to “observe and analyze developments calmly, deal which changes patiently and confidently, but especially - be good at keeping a low profile and never try to be a leader.” Hovering above this program was the slogan taoguang yanghui, i.e. conceal (our) capabilities and avoid the limelight. A S P E N R E V I E W / C BOGDAN J. GÓRALCZYK is a political scientist and sinologist, professor at the Centre for Europe, University of Warsaw, and former ambassador in several countries of Asia. Photo: Archive Bogdan Góralczyk It was to be that way until the moment that China gathered some strength, became a “relatively strong country, not a major global power yet.” It was assumed that such a moment would come in 2049, on the centenary of the proclamation of the PRC. Even in Bejing nobody had predicted that China would overtake Germany as the largest exporter on the planet as early as 2009. That in 2010 it would overtake Japan and become the second largest economy in the world (with good prospects for becoming the O M M E N T 37 first). And that its foreign-exchange reserves would increase from $1 trillion in 2006 to $4 trillion by late 2014. The so-called fifth generation of leaders, under the command of party head and President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang, is adapting to the new realities. Under the ongoing lively debate a change in the Chinese development model (Zhongguo Moshi) is taking place step-by-step. Xi Jinping named “two centenary goals” as his priorities until the end of his (second) five-year term. First, towards 2021 (which is one century since the establishment of CCP) the 2010 GDP per capita of Chinese citizens will be doubled. The idea is to build Xiaokang shehui, “a society of moderate prosperity,” that is—to put it in our terms—a middle-class and a consumer ‑class end, so that consumption and domestic market, rather than exports, serve as the engine of further growth and development. And the second centenary goal is nothing else than the fulfilment of the Chinese Dream (Zhongguo Meng) of the Great Renaissance of the Chinese Nation (Zhonghua minzu weida fuxing). The message is more than clear—it is the answer to the American Dream. Between the lines: the last century belonged to America, this one will belong to us. And the renaissance “of the Chinese people” (Zhonghua minzu) applies not only to the Chinese of the Han nationality, but also to minorities living in China and overseas Chinese (hua qiao). This challenge should be combined with the course on consolidating all Chinese lands introduced at the very beginning of the “reform era” (that is as of January 1979). Hong Kong returned under Chinese jurisdiction on 1 July 1997, and Macau/Aomen on 20 December 1999. The next item on the agenda, as the most urgent strategic task, is a peaceful reunification with Taiwan. Only then we will be dealing with Great and Powerful China. President Xi Jinping announced a new international strategy on November 29, 2014, at a special conference of executives devoted to 38 A S P E N foreign policy. Such a conference had not taken place for eight years. Although the Chinese propaganda, especially formulated in English for the outside world, reassures us that this does not constitute a major turn, not to mention a revolution, we are still dealing with a fundamental change. Xi Jinping named “two centenary goals” as his priorities until the end of his (second) five-year term. First, towards 2021 the 2010 GDP per capita of Chinese citizens will be doubled. The second centenary goal is nothing else than the fulfilment of the Chinese Dream of the Great Renaissance of the Chinese Nation. China openly rejected the idea of taoguang yanghui—of passivity and accumulating forces. China is passing on to the phase of activity on the international stage, always keeping the core national interests in mind. It is more than clear that today’s rulers of China are aiming high and want to regain the great power status enjoyed for centuries by the Middle Kingdom, before it was cursed with the traumas of the “Opium Wars” (1839–1860) and other plagues, now called “the century of national humiliation” (bainian guochi). As part of the newly-proposed “diplomacy with Chinese characteristics,” Beijing will seek R E V I E W / C O M M E N T to shape a multipolar world. Key elements in this area will be, on the one hand, a new type of great power relations (xin xing daguo guanxi), with China being one of them (which is stated openly), and simultaneously a new neighborhood policy. China wants to enhance its influence in shaping external environment, especially in the immediate neighborhood. Special efforts in this respect have been made to cultivate closer relations with neighboring countries, including the initiatives of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The PRC would aim at achieving an “amicable, secure and prosperous neighborhood environment” through “win-win cooperation“ and “connectivity.” These aims are to be executed through new investments, mainly in infrastructure (including the great contract on a Chinese railway running through the almost entire territory of Thailand, signed on December 19 and worth $10.5 billion), as well as boosting its naval power. By means of the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” A S P E N R E V I E W / C China want to be a maritime power as well, which is a completely new strategy. Although this is not openly stated in the strategy, we know what this is all about. The biggest threats emerge in maritime areas. There is the unresolved dispute with Japan over the island of Senkaku/Diayudao and nothing is clear in the ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea, over their archipelagos Spratley (Xisha) and Paracel (Nansha). In this area tensions with the Philippines and Vietnam are ever-growing, while those with Malaysia and the sultanate of Brunei have not been resolved either, which is in sharp contrast to the stated objectives and strategy. The new strategy suggests that in none of these cases will China allow the tensions to escalate, not to mention an open conflict. Which does not mean that the world can sleep peacefully. On the contrary, we have to prepare for a completely new situation for the West when China starts to put forward and even dictate its terms both to its neighborhood and to the entire world. O M M E N T 39 Do Political Ideas Still Matter (Like They Used To, Supposedly)? Jan-Werner Müller Liberal democracy is under threat from two sides simultaneously. And it is far from obvious that the ideas which justify it are in good working order or that its defenders are doing the best they can to make it attractive. I remember being invited to a conference called “The Return of Weltanschauungen?” The place was a well-known American university; the year was 1999. Given that during the middle of the nineties books with titles such as The End of Ism’s? were pouring off the presses, one has to wonder just when anybody ever really thought that doctrines had somehow become less important in politics, or that the proverbial “end of ideology” had arrived. Perhaps just a few years in the last decade of the twentieth century? But when one recalls, especially from a Central European perspective, that this period also saw the Yugoslav wars—often understood as a “return of nationalism”—it becomes almost impossible to see anything like white areas on the canvas of the recent history of political ideas. After all, nationalism is also a political idea. Yet many people intuitively share the sense that political ideas matter less than they used to. To be sure, there could never be a politics without any doctrines at all, some pure pragmatism driven solely by “what works.” As John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, those who think of themselves as being just pragmatists unconsciously A S P E N R E V I E W / P follow the teachings of some long-dead economist (or long-forgotten political theorist, for that matter). Or, in the words of the philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre: “Every action is the bearer and expression of more or less theory-laden beliefs and concepts; every piece of theorizing and every expression of belief is a political and moral action.” So has nothing changed? I submit that there are three important differences between our present and the last century (often been dubbed “the age of ideologies”): first, the end of a global oppositional language through which the most diverse parties and movements could articulate their concerns and demands; second, a rather astonishing refusal among rising powers around the globe to create and promote doctrines for export; and, finally, the emergence of a fateful opposition between technocracy on the one hand and populism on the other, a phenomenon particularly pronounced in today’s Europe—but not confined to it. A Look Back at the Twentieth Century There is little doubt that at first sight political ideas seem to matter less than during the O L I T I C S 41 t wentieth century. Those who lived through the interwar years, for instance, or the height of the Cold War, did not need reminding that political doctrines could literally become a matter of life and death. Czesław Miłosz once pointed out that during the mid-twentieth century “the inhabitants of many European countries came, in general unpleasantly, to the realization that their fate could be influenced directly by intricate and abstruse books of philosophy.” Around the same time, Nikita Khrushchev remarked matter-of-factly about the uprising against the Soviets in socialist Hungary: “None of this would have happened if a couple of writers had been shot in time.” about Cuba, China, and, especially, Cambodia, Michel Foucault had to concede in the late 1970s that “for the first time […] this entire body of thought of the European left, this revolutionary European thought which had its points of reference in the entire world […], thus a thought that was oriented toward things that were situated outside itself, this thought has lost the historical reference-points that it previously found in other parts of the world.” It is tempting to think that Marxism has been replaced by “human rights” as a universal language (and global progressive narrative), as the American historian Samuel Moyn has argued. But human rights do not come with political, social, economic, or any other kinds of theories that explain why things happen the way they do. The fact remains that we live in a globalized world—but no longer have a global oppositional language available. This leads me to my second, related obser vation: as men and women in the twentieth century also hardly needed reminding, the struggle of political doctrines was global. This did not mean that every kind of political thought managed to have global reach—arguably only Marxism really did so throughout the century. But every set of ideas was meant to be for export, and enormous intellectual and material resources were expended on promoting such exports. Even those ideologies founded on some irreducible particularism—think of National Socialism and Italian Fascism—were often reshaped to appeal to those not part of the master race or heirs of the glory of the Roman Empire (think of Nazi conceptions of a united Europe). Those who lived through the interwar years, for instance, or the height of the Cold War, did not need reminding that political doctrines could literally become a matter of life and death. So what has changed? Here’s one thing: up until at least the 1970s, as Tony Judt once pointed out, Marxism remained available as a global oppositional language. The most diverse intellectuals, movements, and parties could put whatever they thought they were doing into a larger theoretical context—and a seemingly universal story of liberation. Europeans benefited from the sense that even as the continent’s influence declined globally, they remained part of a worldwide struggle; those outside Europe at least occasionally could use some philosophical back-up from Europe—and this was true even of anti-colonial thinkers (think of Sartre’s preface to Frantz Fanon’s Wretched of the Earth). Yet with disenchantment 42 A S P E N Ism’s In One Country Attempts to transfer political models have not entirely disappeared in our day. There is a global democracy promotion business (which, by the way, is no longer a monopoly of the West: as Thomas Carothers in particular has been pointing out, countries like Indonesia are now also in the business—with considerable success). But the R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S notion of doctrines without borders, where potential adherents need to endorse a set of codified political principles, has virtually disappeared from the scene (an exception might actually be the EU with its “Copenhagen Criteria” for accession to membership—except that these are so general and, as we’ve learnt the hard way in the last ten years, so ineffective that they should probably not be dignified with labels such as “doctrine” or “theory”). True, people around Vladimir Putin tried for a brief moment to theorize a model of “sovereign democracy.” Today, however, Putinism presents itself only vaguely as some kind of antidote to supposed Western liberal relativism, not a codified political model (which would actually limit Putin’s room for maneuver and hence is actually undesirable). Or think of the contrast between Maoism—which really was for global export—and the “Chinese Dream” propounded by Xi Jinping today: the latter is for domestic consumption, while the supposed Chinese ideal of meritocracy—in opposition to democracy—remains more of academic interest. On the other hand, both Russia and China pursue a distinct combination of promoting nationalism and projecting soft power. Nationalism has two meanings here: both Putin and Xi Jinping stoke nationalist feelings and publicly justify their regimes as properly defining and defending the national interest. But nationalism is also a normative principle according to which national sovereignty is a prime, and in fact universal, political value—the most important implication of which is the principle of non-interference in countries’ domestic affairs. In other words, there is a universal right to be particular—and that, of course, includes a right to be non-democratic and illiberal. As Andrew J. Nathan has argued, China in particular does not want to offer a global model, but be left alone, while it pursues its material interests. The problem with its ally North Korea is precisely that the latter is far too ideological. A S P E N R E V I E W / P Of course, this contrast between ideology ‑promotion and pragmatism should not be overplayed. Both Russia and, especially, China today project soft power in ways that would have been virtually unimaginable in, let’s say, the early 1990s, when the globe was a “CNN-world” (less so a BBC-world). It’s hard to say how much influence CCTV and Russia Today really have—but their subtle and often not so subtle “what-aboutism” is arguably more effective than anything the Soviet Union did during the Cold War. Confucius Institutes are being established across the West, and Russia is at least trying to gain a foothold in a Western media fixated on the idea of “balance” by having its pro-Putin experts and pundits ready in outfits such as the nicely named “Institute of Democracy and C ooperation.” Russia and China pursue a distinct combination of promoting nationalism and projecting soft power. Both Putin and Xi Jinping stoke nationalist feelings and publicly justify their regimes as properly defining and defending the national interest. Populism versus Technocracy As is well-known, parts of the far right in Europe are today supportive of Putin. What they all share with the Russian regime is, very broadly speaking, anti-Americanism, anti-Europeanism (in the sense of being fundamentally opposed to the European Union) and, philosophically most important, anti-liberalism. Do these anti-attitudes O L I T I C S 43 leave anything like a positive program, though? The answer is yes—and this leads me to my third and final observation: they all subscribe to what I would term an ideal of populism. Populist reasoning, as I understand it, always goes something like this: the populists (and only they) are the legitimate representatives of the people; all others are illegitimate contenders or usurpers. There is only one genuine popular will (or one ‘overwhelming majority’—one of Putin’s favorite phrases) and solely populists can implement it. Whoever disagrees must be part of immoral, selfserving elites or not properly belong to the people at all. Elites (other than the elite constituted by populists in power) are by definition corrupt and cosmopolitan. Thus, populism is always a moralizing and exclusionary form of public argument. It is fateful that this kind of populism can look like democracy—and especially so in situations where elites appear to be imposing one technically correct policy solution without debate, let alone popular input, and where they are doing so across borders. This is the particular constellation in which Europe finds itself after half a decade of Euro crisis. Technocrats—who of course also adhere to “ideas,” usually neoliberalism or its German variant, ordoliberalism—are set in opposition to populists who claim to represent the genuine common good as willed by the authentic people. While the two sides look very different, they actually share one trait: both have no need for pluralism and, by implication, debate and political party competition. For the technocrat, there is only one rational policy; for the populist, there is only one popular will. Neither side is terribly interested in elaborate doctrines—but both still need ideas: populism is parasitic on an ideal of popular sovereignty; technocrats think they have objective economic theories to back them up. Liberal democracy, in short, is under threat from two sides simultaneously. And it’s far from obvious that the ideas which justify it are in good working order or that its defenders are doing the best they can to make it attractive. 44 A S P E N For many years after 1989 there seems to have been an assumption that liberal democratic ideas explain themselves and need no embedding in particular contexts—no rational person could really disagree with them. But for those tempted by technocracy, chaotic real-world democracy seems irrational; while, among populists, there is a sense that citizens have been comprehensively disempowered as democratic actors. Those willing to defend liberal democracy effectively have to counter both trends. And the defense will necessarily have to include a new articulation of liberal democratic ideas. JAN-WERNER MÜLLER is a Professor of Politics at Princeton University. His recent publications include Contesting Democracy: Political Ideas in Twentieth-Century Europe (Yale, 2011). Photo: Tor Birk Trads R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S Europe in 1815 and 2015 Brendan Peter Simms We do not know for sure what Mr. Putin’s ultimate ambition is. But he has certainly found allies in Hungary, Belarus, Czech Republic and, latterly, Greece. Two hundred years ago, three events fundamentally shaped European and world history for decades to come, and to some extent down to the present day. The year began with the ratification by the US Senate of the Treaty of Ghent, which crowned the victory of the Americans over the British in the War of 1812. This not only ensured that the American experiment would survive, but that the contest for supremacy in the west had been won by Washington. At around the same time, Napoleon Bonaparte escaped from exile in Elba and re-established himself as emperor of France. Not long after, he was decisively defeated by an allied army under the command of the Duke of Wellington and Marshal Blücher at Waterloo. This was followed by the conclusion of the Congress of Vienna, which determined the internal order of Europe until the mid-nineteenth revolutions, and the territorial dispensation until the unifications of Italy and Germany. The Vienna settlement was designed to keep the British in, the Russians out and the French down. France was forced to disgorge all lands acquired between 1789 and 1792, and required to pay a crippling indemnity. Poland remained partitioned between Russia, Austria and Prussia. The Tsar retained most of the massive gains of the past decades, including Bessarabia, taken from Turkey, and Finland, ceded by the Swedes. A S P E N R E V I E W / P Piedmont-Sardinia recovered Savoy from France and was enlarged with a view to blocking French designs on Italy. Strategic depth in the peninsula was provided by the Austrians, who were granted Lombardy and Venetia, along with the Republic’s coastal strip in Dalmatia. The most profound changes, however, took place in the lands of the former Holy Roman Empire—that is in Germany. Austria ceded Belgium to Holland to form the Kingdom of the United Netherlands, intended as a bulwark against French expansion into the Low Countries. Prussia was awarded the Rhineland and Westphalia with the express intention, as Castlereagh put it, of putting her “more in military contact with France,” in order to “provide effectually against the systematic views of France to possess herself of the Low Countries and the territories on the left bank of the Rhine.” It was only with some difficulty that Potsdam managed to fend off the British offer of a large slice of southern Belgium. The myriad of smaller principalities which had been such a feature of German politics before the 1790s were not restored for the most part: Bavaria, Wuerttemberg, Baden, Hanover and a number of other states survived the fall of Napoleon greatly enlarged. Of the great powers, only Britain made no large-scale territorial gains, though she did retain O L I T I C S 45 her colonial booty (including Ceylon and the Cape Colony) and a number of bases including Malta. This restraint was deliberate. As Castlereagh had argued in mid-April 1814, “Our reputation on the continent as a feature of our strength, power and confidence is of more real moment than any acquisition.” He parlayed this standing the Quadruple Alliance of 1815 between Russia, Prussia, Austria and Britain. This was designed to coordinate allied response to any future threat to the state system, especially from a resurgent France. Article six of this agreement pledged the parties to “renew their meetings at fixed periods, either under the immediate auspices of the sovereign themselves, or by their respective ministers, for the purpose of consulting upon their common interest, and for consideration of the measures which at each of those periods shall be considered the most salutary for the repose and prosperity of nations and the maintenance of the peace of Europe.” The Vienna settlement regulated not only the borders but also the internal structure of much of Europe. Both Britain and the Eastern powers rejected republicanism in favor of the “monarchical principle,” the former preferring constitutional monarchies, the latter tending more towards “corporate” or absolutist systems. Many of the southern and western German states, such as Bavaria and Württemberg, held onto or were granted constitutions; and in Prussia the promulgation of a constitution was much discussed in 1814–1815. In France, an army of occupation was deployed to keep an eye on residual Bonapartism, and to ensure that the indemnity was paid in full. The general intention was to encourage governments which would be both robust enough to withstand revolutionary pressures from below, sufficiently effective to deter external aggressors and yet not so strong as to menace their neighbors. At the heart of this new order was the German Confederation—Deutscher Bund— which replaced the defunct Holy Roman Empire. 46 A S P E N It was designed to maintain the European balance by being strong enough to contain Franco-Russian ambitions, yet not sufficiently powerful to develop hegemonic ambitions of its own. The preamble to the constitutive German Federal Act therefore called for a “strong and durable union for the independence of Germany and the peace and equilibrium of Europe.” This was envisaged as a commonwealth of parts as well as the whole; sacrificing any individual state for strategic reasons was expressly prohibited. The eleventh article of the Confederation therefore bound members to provide mutual assistance in the event of an invasion, not to make separate peace with the aggressor and not conclude agreements which threatened the integrity of the Bund. To this end, the defense of Germany was entrusted to federal military contingents from Prussia, Austria and the rest of Germany, Political coordination was to be provided by the Diet at Frankfurt, under the presidency of Austria. All this amounted to a geopolitical revolution in Europe. The inexorable eighteenth-century Russian march westwards had been barely contained: Congress Poland jutted perilously into Prussia and the Habsburg Empire. Denmark had been destroyed as a Baltic and Scandinavian power; her attention was once more turned southwards. But the greatest shift had taken place in Germany. Prussia, a power of increasingly Eastern orientation during the past hundred years, now became the guardian of the gate against France in the West. Austria, for centuries a Western power intimately involved in the politics of the Rhineland, Burgundy and the Low Countries, now acquired a largely Balkan, eastern European and especially Italian focus. There was also a fundamental transformation in the way the great powers did business. They had learned the virtues of cooperation and restraint during the final stages of the struggle with Napoleon, and this culture continued to permeate diplomacy after 1815. At the same time, the great powers R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S were agreed as never before that what happened inside European states had profound implications for relations between states. The Treaty of Ghent, which brought the war between Britain and the United States to a formal close attracted much less contemporary attention than the Congress of Vienna. Its implications were to be no less revolutionary in the long run, however. A stalemated Britain returned disputed territory around the Great Lakes. The United States had survived its first major trial of strength with a major power since independence. a new institutional departure with the inauguration of the Concert of Europe; today, there is no new architecture—though one is sorely needed, as we shall see below—and instead we are preoccupied with the health of existing instruments such as NATO and the European Union. There are also, however, very significant similarities. Year 1815 was a start and an end point: it marked the conclusion of a long period of warfare, and the start of a durable peace between the great powers, at least. The past year, by contrast, has been marked by the end of the post-Cold-War settlement with the Russian annexation of the Ukraine. It represents the end of a peace, rather than the end of a war, as in 1815. Whether it also marks the start of a new struggle is not clear. The likelihood is that the incipient cold war will intensify, and prolonged armed confrontation—if not actual war—along NATO and the EU’s eastern flank cannot be ruled out. That said, if we ask what began in 2014–2015, the historian must answer glibly that it is too early to tell. Only the perspective of time will tell us which of the remarkable developments we have seen over the past year—the Russian assault on Ukraine, the rise of ISIS or the murder of the Charlie Hebdo cartoonists will shape our futures. It may even be that some hitherto unobserved, or disregarded, event will appear decisive in retrospect. We do not know for sure what Mr. Putin’s ultimate ambition is. His planned Eurasian Union is certainly a fundamental challenge to the democratic order established in Europe and its wider neighborhood after the fall of the Wall. Pessimists see it as the harbinger of a prolonged standoff between the Kremlin and the West. Optimists see in Mr. Putin a new Alexander I, the Russian Tsar who claimed a powerful role for Russia in the new European Congress system after 1815. Are Russia’s aims ideological or territorial or both? For example, there are some signs that Mr. Putin sees himself as the avatar of an alternative to Western modernity based on nationalism and Year 1815 was a start and an end point: it marked the conclusion of a long period of warfare, and the start of a durable peace between the great powers, at least. The past year, by contrast, has been marked by the end of the post‑Cold‑War settlement with the Russian annexation of the Ukraine. Before we compare 1815 and 2015 a generic warning is in order. They did things differently two hundred years ago. Mental horizons were shaped by the experiences of more than twenty years of war with Revolutionary and Napoleonic France, and much of what we take for granted today in the way of social and political liberalism would have seemed strange to protagonists. The two scenarios are also conceptually far apart. 1815 saw A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S 47 a rejection of decadence. He has certainly found allies in Hungary, Belarus, Czech Republic and, latterly, Greece. In that case, the next decade may resemble more the period after the concert of Europe split in the 1830s into a Western constitutionalist camp, led by Great Britain and France, and an Eastern autocratic camp, made up of Prussia, Russia and Austria. The legacy of 1815 for the European Union is equally ambiguous, and depends on whether we are comparing it to the Congress System or the German Confederation. Napoleon’s failure to mobilize the European continent he dominated for so long more effectively against his remaining enemies, Great Britain and the Tsarist Empire, graphically showed the limits of his “hegemonic” integration project. Hitler fared no better in 1940–1944, when he found that the economic resources of Fortress Europe much reduced from their pre-war potential on account of the continent being unplugged from the global system. Likewise—without in any way wishing to compare Napoleon, Hitler and Chancellor Merkel!—German coercive austerity politics is depressing rather than raising the economies of the periphery. In this sense, the looser consensual bonds of the Concert of Europe were better suited to international harmony, which might suggest that the EU would better row back on closer political and thus fiscal integration. That said, the German Confederation did not work: rather like the current EU, it showed itself unable to deal with severe internal and external challenges, and was eventually replaced by the more tightly organized Bismarckian Reich. In the present context it would mean full political union of the continent to mobilize it against Russian aggression. The lessons of the battle of Waterloo for today, on the other hand, are more straightforward, and more helpful for the project of European integration. It was fought as a coalition campaign in which the Duke of Wellington operated in concert with Prussia’s Marshal Blücher, and if 48 A S P E N they had failed to stop Napoleon, Austrian and Russian armies were already hastening to the scene from Central Europe. The Duke’s own army was a multi-national microcosm made up of Britons (that is English, Irish, Scots and Welsh) as well as Belgians, Dutch, and various sorts of Germans. No formation epitomized more than the King’s German Legion, made up of George II’s Hanoverian subjects who signed up in the British army, using English as their principal language of command, to fight Napoleonic tyranny. European military integration within an English-speaking coalition army which brings Germans to the front, now isn’t that a legacy of 1815 that we could use two hundred years later? BRENDAN PETER SIMMS is the author of Europe. The struggle for supremacy, 1453 to the present day (Penguin Press, 2013) and The longest afternoon. The 400 men who decided the battle of Waterloo (Penguin Press, 2014), which is about the King’s German Legion as prototype for a future European army. Photo: Ede and Ravenscroft R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S Europe and Russia Dominique Moïsi Three key words should define our policy towards Russia, if we want to act responsibly: firmness, clarity and lucidity. The weaker is the ruble—following the spectacular fall of the price of oil—the more the behavior of Russia towards Ukraine seems aggressive. Has Putin come to the conclusion that overplaying the nationalist card is the only way for him to survive the growing mood of discontent that would otherwise prevail, at least in the cities if not in the countryside? Or has Putin more concrete ambitions such as carving a mini state within the Ukrainian territory? Unlike the former prime minister of France under the reign of Louis-Philippe in the 1840’s, François Guizot, Putin is no longer saying “be rich and let me take care of the rest,” but “be proud of Russia, and forget your own economic situation: sacrifices are going to be for a short duration; national greatness will be restored for ever. The humiliation you suffered yesterday is not about to return. And,” adds Putin, “the Russian Civilization is much stronger, much purer. Consider the West, it is in full decay and morally corrupt (think of the marriage between homosexuals).” Has Russia’s latest Tsar become irrational or is he is shrewdly playing in a seemingly reckless manner to deter Europe in particular and the West in general, from opposing his revisionist ambitions? Putin seems to be sending a rather efficient message, which seems to have convinced many western luminaries and that can be summarized A S P E N R E V I E W / P as follows: “Beware I am dangerous, and the men who would replace me, if I were to fall, are even more nationalistic and reckless than I am!” Or is Putin’s exploiting the fact that Europeans are deeply divided on the subject of Russia and do not give the same priority to Russian “expansionist policies”? In fact Europeans may share a common destiny, but they do not seem to have the same nightmares. In the South, the threat of Islamic fundamentalism, incarnated by ISIS or Al-Qaeda, takes precedence over the fear of Russian revisionism. In the East, Center and North of Europe, the reverse is probably true. Can Europe in this context find a common language to confront Putin’s ambitions? Those who defend Russia, and they are very numerous, seem to combine the defense of very mercantile interests with the expression of deep anti-American feelings that are still lingering. The Union’s divisions and weaknesses have been as encouraging for the Master of the Kremlin as Washington’s hesitation over Syria. To make things worse, some countries of the South, like Italy in particular, simply consider the Russian threat as a secondary and distant one compared to the rising number of migrants from the South that are risking their lives to take refuge on their shores. But they deem the very close economic links that exist between Rome O L I T I C S 49 and Moscow vital for their future. Rome cannot at the same time try to implement fundamental structural reforms inside and make agonizing reappraisal of her foreign policy tradition. That is at least the message Matteo Renzi seems to be projecting. The only good news coming from Europe has been the relative firmness of Germany and the rising role within the European Union of a successful Poland. And yet, given the direction of Moscow’s policy towards its “near abroad,” unity is vital if Europe pretends to exert some kind of influence in the world, starting with fixing limits to Putin’s ambitions. Three key words should define our policy towards Russia, if we want to act responsibly: firmness, clarity and lucidity. Without firmness nothing is possible. We certainly have made mistakes in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union. America in particular may have given in to a certain hubris and arrogance in neglecting Russia’s feelings. Let’s admit we have unnecessarily humiliated Moscow. Nevertheless, the demise of the Soviet Union was the result of a long string of failures, which began in pre-Soviet Russia’s inability to come to terms with modernity. And since the collapse of their Empire, present-day Russian leaders have failed to confront head-on the reasons that led to this impasse. The gap between China and Russia today has never been greater, either in terms of behavior or results. The last G20 summit in Brisbane has demonstrated this contrast in the most striking manner. China has played her hand masterfully, acting as a good will actor, particularly on the issue of climate change. Russia instead appeared self-isolated in a not-so-splendid manner, given the results of her economy. Her stock exchange is collapsing. Her currency has lost 30% of its value, while the price of oil and gas has fallen by more than 50%. Contrary to China, Russia does not create wealth but simply exploits her energy resources and finds herself therefore very vulnerable regarding the downward evolution of 50 A S P E N the market. By choosing to adopt a revisionist aggressive stance, Putin has made a dual historical and strategic mistake. From the start, his ambition should have been to anchor the future of Russia to that of Europe. Putin’s model should have remained Peter the Great. He instead turned to Nicholas I, the most reactionary of recent Russia’s Tsars. The modernization of Russia’s economy, society, institutions and more globally her political culture presupposed a “rapprochement” with Europe. Being China’s junior partner is for Russia neither glorious nor realistic option in the long term, even if in the short term it has contributed to a renewal of Putin’s popularity at home. Putin’s only true strength lies in our European weakness and irresolution. Our goal must therefore be to set clear limits to Putin’s ambitions, even if they are perhaps not that clear in his own mind. What does he want most: to weaken Ukraine or to enlarge Russia’s territory? In any case, there is only one answer, firmness. In the present context and given Moscow’s ambiguous behavior if not the deliberate policy of deceit, it seems obvious that France should not deliver the warship Mistral she had accepted to sell to Russia in a very imprudent manner when Nicolas Sarkozy was president. It is much better for Paris to appear as a problematic purveyor of arms than to be perceived as an irresponsible strategic actor, only caring for its own mercantile interests. More than firmness is needed clarity, and this implies realizing that Putin in 2015 is no longer the equivalent of what he was in 2000 when he came to power, nor even Putin of 2008, when he grabbed pieces of Georgia by force. Under his increasingly centralized and authoritarian guidance, Russia has become a kind of “Red Orthodoxy,” combining ultra-religious nationalism with the tactics and the practices of the former Soviet Union. This mixture is both highly explosive and dangerous since it rests on principles and methods that have already led Russia and the Soviet Union to previous failure and collapse. Putin, who seems to have cornered R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S himself, is practicing an increasingly dangerous “fast backward” race. But if firmness and clarity are indispensable, they do not suffice by themselves to constitute a European policy. The goal cannot simply be to contain Russia. But how can Europe suggest an honorable compromise, when Russia seems so intent on maintaining unacceptable solutions, accompanied by barely disguised threats along the lines of “don’t forget we are a great nuclear power,” or unfounded reassuring remarks such as “everything is going to be all right by the end”? With a partner who is in bad faith, how can you reconcile the two key principles of international law, which are the right of a people to its self-determination and the intangibility of borders? Any compromise raises of course the issue of the future of Crimea, now solidly under Russian domination. In fact the object of a real negotiation could be formulated as follows: how can we lead Putin to accept that by gaining Crimea, he has lost Ukraine? Of course Ukraine must commit herself not to enter NATO and has to protect the rights of her Russian speaking minorities. But Moscow in exchange has to accept the principle of Ukraine’s right one day to enter the European Union. The progressive removal of sanctions would of course accompany the conclusion of such an agreement, which would allow all the actors to concentrate their energies on other priorities, be they economic or strategic. Putin’s Russia does not have the means for the policy she leads. But the Western world, nevertheless, needs the cooperation and good will of Moscow to confront with some chances of success key middle-eastern problems such as the Iranian nuclear deal, not to mention the fight against ISIS in Syria in particular. A compromise with Moscow would be welcome, but not on conditions that would translate the political weakness of the stronger of the two protagonists, i.e. Russia. If the best cards of Europe are poorly played, then it is no wonder that the worst Russian ones win the day. At the present stage, with an A S P E N R E V I E W / P escalation of violence taking place in Ukraine, sanctions have to be maintained and most likely increased. And even more important, Ukraine has to be helped financially as quickly as possible, before it is too late. Our ability to agree on a common policy towards Russia, which will not be a “compromise of weaknesses,” will play a central role in defining Europe’s identity in the world. If Europe wants to remain to be perceived as a model, she has to be seen as an actor, and in particular in the security field. Can it be done or is it a dream? One thing is for sure, thanks to Putin (and ISIS), the need for Europe is more obvious than ever. One day maybe there will be busts to Putin on the squares of many European cities. “A thankful Europe, to one of its key founding fathers.” DOMINIQUE MOÏSI a professor at L’Institut d’études politiques de Paris (Sciences Po), is Senior Adviser at the French Institute for International Affairs (IFRI) and a visiting professor at King’s College London. He is the author of The Geopolitics of Emotion: How Cultures of Fear, Humiliation, and Hope are Reshaping the World. Photo: Archive Dominique Moïsi O L I T I C S 51 The Elite in Russia is Kept on a Leash by the Nation If Europeanism is preserved anywhere, it will be in Russia—says the Russian writer and National Bolshevik Party activist Zakhar Prilepin in conversation with Filip Memches Vladimir Putin is more and more often using hardline right-wing rhetoric and his words are followed by political decisions. For example, in 2013 the Kremlin host signed two laws which met with criticism of liberal opinion-making communities in the West: the first banned “promoting non-traditional sexual relations among minors,” and the second introduced punishments for offending religious feeling and desecration of churches. Are we witnessing a rejection of modernity in Russia and a conservative counterrevolution? There is also such a term as “conservative revolution” and it is more to my liking. So if Russia really is going through a stage of a conservative revolution, this is all right, for the concept of “counterrevolution” has something degrading in it. But I think that in our country we are not dealing with a regression. ZAKHAR PRILEPIN is a leading Russian prose writer of the younger generation, activist of the National Bolshevik Party. His novels Sankya (2008), The Pathologies (2010) and Black Ape (2013) have been published in Poland. Photo: Archive Zakhar Prilepin Very many misunderstandings in the world are connected with the belief that humanity is evolving, that it is moving along a path of progress. Meanwhile you should note that in Russian literature this motif is completely absent, for the more we are removed in time from the cruci- But the term “conservative revolution”— although it points back to the name of an intellectual movement in the Weimar Republic— sounds like an oxymoron. 52 A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S fixion of Christ, the less we are able to follow this road. I don’t think that the concept of progress is crucial in the Russian national awareness. So in Russia there is a revolution aimed at going back to tradition. And thus, paradoxically, Russia is moving forward. agents—Russian democrats and enlightened liberals—entered public life in the 1980s and 1990s by shouting about repressions against the Orthodox Church, about Orthodox values being forgotten, about the necessity of reinstating religion to its proper place. Today the same persons turned out to be the most aggressive and active critics of the presence of the Orthodox Church in public life. And the defenders of the Church are what they are, they can’t be different. Yes, they are people raised in the Soviet Union, but where would they come from? From Australia? My father was a member of the Communist Party, but it did not affect the fact that I was baptized as soon as I was born in 1975. In our house there were icons, religious books. And I do not recall that in those times the tradition was being damaged in any way. A Communist was not a man who demolished churches and shot priests down all day long. Except that this is a different tradition than in the West… Fortunately, Russia is not a European country, but in many areas it adopted the European tradition, originating in Byzantium, including the law. And Russia is preserving this heritage, preserving its Christian identity. We can also see how today’s Europe is convulsively parting with its heritage. Russia is different. If Europeanism is preserved anywhere, it will be in Russia. There is a lingering myth that the Russian nation is characterized by a slave or serf mentality, passivity, lack of courage in fighting for their interests. It only appears to be so. For in fact the impact of the nation on the political elite is huge. You want to say that today’s Russian conservatives in power are sincere Christians? Perhaps they treat religion instrumentally—as an instrument of consolidating the society they rule over, the society to which they present, just like in the Soviet times, the “rotten” West as the main enemy? Of course, there is a lot of hypocrisy and mendacity in the behavior of these people. But they are not the ones in charge of the return to tradition. Putin and the KGB have nothing to do with it. It is more than 90% of society who openly influence the course of events. There is a lingering myth that the Russian nation is characterized by a slave or serf mentality, passivity, lack of courage in fighting for their interests. It only appears to be so. For in fact the impact of the nation on the political elite is huge. It is not true that today the political elite is imposing conservative values on society. The reverse is true. The popular/national element is pulling the elite behind it, and the composition of this elite is to a large extent determined by negative selection. The elite is not ruling the nation, it is kept on a leash by it. But at the moment this “conservative revolution” is pushed through by people who started their careers as functionaries of the Communist regime and adapted themselves to the new circumstances after the breakup of the Soviet Empire. What do they have in common with the Russian tradition? Don’t you notice an irony of history in that? The people who today are criticizing the former Communist Party members or KGB A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S 53 Was it also like that in the 1990s, when the Russian political establishment was implementing the transformation of the system and the economy, which was painful and brutal for many ordinary citizens? Even Boris Yeltsin, still regarded as a pro-Western politician, was forced to make decisions characteristic for traditionalists or conservatives. It was Yeltsin who sent Russian troops to Transnistria and Chechnya, it was Yeltsin who pushed away liberals from the throne and introduced conservatives to the corridors of power, and finally it was Yeltsin who understood that there was huge social demand for the existence of nation. And with Putin this understanding is more organic. But his retinue is in 50% or 80% composed of liberals. These are not people with Communist Party background, but persons who entered adult life in the late 1980s and early 1990s. There is a generational change going on and people who do not have anything in common with communism find their way to the structures of power. They have been shaped by Western cultural patterns. Except that Putin will have to part with these people, for the nation will demand it from him. And thus it will lead to a renewal of the political elite. But this has nothing to do with the attitude to communism. remind you that not everything was so simple then. Events from the period of the Civil War in Russia, when the Bolsheviks persecuted the Orthodox Church, are illegitimately extended onto the 70 years of the existence of the Soviet Union. The Soviet era went through various stages. As recently as the 1990s the communists led by Gennady Zyuganov played a significant role in Russian politics. In 1996 their leader was a serious rival to Yeltsin in the presidential elections. Now he heads a party which plays the role of a licensed opposition in the Duma. What has happened? They have simply become part of the ruling establishment. They do put forward some ideas, but they are part of the system. In fact, it has to be said that in Russia the right-left division does not correspond to the right-left division in the West. Russian leftists are more traditionalist than One Russia, which economically is a liberal party. So its politicians are liberal conservatives. And politicians from Zyuganov’s party or other left-wing communities are more similar to such politicians as Marine le Pen or even American Republicans. Sergei Udaltsov, who was jailed for speaking out against the Putin regime, has voiced his support for the actions of the New Russia fighters in the Donbas. This shows that Russian leftists, in contrast to Western left, identify themselves with the nation and are remote from various marginal topics. In the field of fighting against oligarchy, promoting the issue of material redistribution, Russia will move to the left. And this will favor the emergence of some alternative for One Russia. So we are dealing with a clash of two tendencies: the country is still ruled by an oligarchy, but the nation aspires to hold power in its own hands. One gets an impression that you assumed the role of an advocate of communists, trying to reconcile fire with water. It can’t be denied that the ideology which constituted the founding myth and doctrine of the Soviet state, is for some reason perceived as hostile to religion and all kinds of tradition… Certainly, besides the official ideology there was also real life. It was the greatest tyrant of the Soviet Union, Joseph Stalin, who established relations with the Orthodox Church. People from the world of culture were friends with clergymen. Yes, it was a difficult, painful, and sometimes nightmarish coexistence. I am not an advocate of the Soviet regime, but nevertheless I want to 54 A S P E N But One Russia can adopt the slogans of anti-system parties. It doesn’t seem to me that this grouping—this liberal party of billionaires and millionaires— R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S And it is more focused on the national community. For in the West individual freedoms are the priority. When Russian left considers some problem, it starts from the assumption that the interests of the nation—the majority—are important. And Western left always acts on behalf of various minorities. Today it deals with problems of sexual minorities. Tomorrow it may take on something as politically irrelevant as plant breeding. Yet Europe is faced with huge economic problems. In Greece or in Italy there are people who cannot afford to buy bread. There is the serious issue of immigration. In this situation fighting for legalization of same-sex unions is completely absurd. can change its clothes and put on a new disguise. One Russia will be what Putin orders it is to be. This is an institution of the regime directed by the Kremlin. And what Russia needs is changes. Inflexible officials should be replaced with people who are capable of taking risks, of heroic actions, for example such as those who showed courage in the Crimea or in the Donbas. From the moment when the political crisis in the Ukraine began, there grew tensions between Russia and the West. There is a widespread opinion that the differences of opinion between Russian and Western political classes simply came to the surface, but perhaps it is a question of different mentalities? The elites are not homogeneous, and they are changing. Yesterday’s elites are different from today’s ones or those which will come tomorrow. Additionally, in Russia there is also the division of the elite into conservatives and liberals. And of course Russians are different from Westerners. Except that in today’s France, Italy or Germany there are many people who like what is happening in Russia. For they are very unhappy about Europe’s rejection of tradition, including Christianity. FILIP MEMCHES is a columnist of the Rzeczpospolita daily Photo: Archive Filip Memches It is impossible not to mention the impact of the events of 1968 on the development of left-wing thought. In the West it gradually started to move away from social issues to cultural ones. In Russia you cannot see that. What survived in Russia is only the heavy, conservative current of the left, and today there are also organizations which are ideologically close to Western left, but they play a marginal role. This has been conditioned by Russian history. Peter the Great implemented Western patterns. Putin came to power thanks to a supporter of a pro-Western option, Boris Berezovsky. In opposition to such politicians Russian left is assuming traditionalist forms. A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S 55 The Future of EU-Russia Relations Michal Šimečka For parts of the European political and intellectual elite, a non-democratic Russia will always represent an existential threat: an archetypal enemy bent on exploiting the weaknesses of open societies In all likelihood, Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine will eventually morph into a frozen conflict, with occasional skirmishes, a modicum of international supervision, and endless negotiations over the status of separatist republics. It is also likely that, at some point down the road, the EU will ease its sanctions against Russia’s battered economy, perhaps in exchange for a stable ceasefire and partial withdrawal of Russian troops and equipment. By itself, that outcome would be something of a feat for European—and particularly German—diplomacy. But once the acute phase of the conflict is over, questions will arise over the future of EU’s relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Building a new equilibrium of EU-Russia relations— without compromising our own principles, our security, and our commitment to Kiev—will become a defining test for European foreign policy in the years ahead. If it succeeds, Europe would have matured into a serious and self-confident geopolitical actor. For the moment, however, that future drifts in a strategic and intellectual limbo. A return to the pre-2014 era of EU-Russian relations—to the 56 A S P E N meaningless yet expedient “strategic partnership”—is politically and practically impossible, even if Russia withdraws all of its troops from eastern Ukraine. But so is another Cold War. To be sure, one can always nurture hopes of another Gorbachev-style game-changer, or even a Russian Maidan. The EU can even try to nudge the Russian polity toward either direction with a smart combination of external pressure and civil society support. But it cannot build a strategy around an unlikely scenario with uncertain geopolitical consequences. Yet any alternative mode of EU-Russia relations seems impossible to envision, let alone conceptualize. Stable and peaceful co-existence with an authoritarian and aggressive neighbor is a notion that defies the imagination of European diplomacy—its discourse, institutions and historical experience. Elites Divided For parts of the European political and intellectual elite, a non-democratic Russia will always represent an existential threat: an archetypal enemy bent on exploiting the weaknesses of R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S open societies—with sinister precision—to expand its sphere of influence. It follows that, in any given situation, we should always opt for the most muscular of all intelligible policy options. Anything less betrays naiveté, Munich-like cowardice or moral relativism, all of which would come back to haunt us. proven them right. But so can those who had warned that Western integration of Ukraine would precipitate strategic confrontation with Russia. The Ukraine conflict all but vindicated and reinforced everyone’s prior convictions. The upshot is a reproduction of the false dichotomy that casts Russia as either a mortal threat or as a would-be strategic partner. The EU must move beyond it. If and once the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine comes to an end, we should envisage a future of EU-Russia relations where Moscow is neither a partner nor a threat— but where it could potentially be both at the same time. And it needs to develop a set of discursive and institutional tools to sustain this dialectical equilibrium. It is a future fraught with paradoxes. It would require further investments into Europe’s military capabilities—especially in the framework of NATO’s collective defense—and contain the risk of Russia’s military incursion in the Baltic states or Poland; yet it could also entail genuine dialogue with Moscow over a new European security architecture. It would necessitate the bolstering of European intelligence agencies to counter Russian espionage, propaganda and other forms of hybrid warfare; but it should not preclude the possibility of negotiations leading toward a visa-free regime with Russia. It would dictate that we never recognize the annexation of Crimea (just as the EU never recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and vigorously defend the sovereign choice of Ukraine and other Eastern partners to pursue European integration; but also that we talk to Russia about the political and trade implications of these processes. We will have to push back against Russian influence in the future member states of the Western Balkans. We need to shed our dependence on Russian gas and addiction to dubious oligarch-linked oil. At the same time however, EU should remain open to free trade negotiations and sectoral cooperation with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. A return to the pre‑2014 era of EU-Russian relations—to the meaningless yet expedient “strategic partnership”— is politically and practically impossible, even if Russia withdraws all of its troops from eastern Ukraine. On the other side of the divide are politicians and diplomats who will never tire of working towards closer partnership with Moscow. The motivation is not necessary one of narrow economic interests, energy concerns, or misguided anti-Americanism. Rather, they perceive dialogue and compromise-seeking as the innate purpose of diplomacy, and the most effective vehicle toward the progressive modernization of Russia itself. Needless to say, such an attitude entails a degree of understanding for Kremlin’s view of the world. Unfortunately, the two paradigms remain locked in their own moral imperatives, causal logic, and historical narratives—and all too often insulated from empirical reality. Those who had long been sounding alarm over Putin’s neo-imperialism can (rightfully) claim that history has A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S 57 Flexible management of paradoxes does not imply weakness or abandonment of a principled foreign policy. Rather, it is a mark of statecraft and confidence in our own values. Ambiguity can be a powerful asset, if deployed strategically, as a means to a clearly-defined end. It is worth recalling that the EU-Russia relationship is deeply asymmetrical. Even if it cannot directly shape the nature of Russia’s domestic regime, the EU will always be the stronger side. What is more, the Kremlin desperately needs Europe as an adversary—to support its nationalist and ultra-conservative ideology. It also needs Europe as a partner—to keep its primitively structured economy afloat. All of this lends the EU considerable maneuvering space to dictate the terms of bilateral relations in the future, provided, of course, that it would no longer need Russia as a strategic partner, and it would no longer fear it as an enemy. Achieving that balance will require the EU to integrate diverse and seemingly contradictory initiatives into a coherent strategy. In other words—to think and act in geopolitical terms. And therein lies the problem. The EU has a notoriously troubled relationship with geopolitics, and with power itself. It is encoded in its DNA: after all, EU’s original raison d´être was to tame the descriptive forces of European power politics, and replace it with post-modern pooling of sovereignty. Today, despite the eurozone crisis, the EU wields more power (both the hard and soft kind) than any other international actor save for the US. But it cannot figure out what do with it. It floats in the waters of international relations as a giant well-meaning whale, in perpetual astonishment of its own power. Amid the December 2014 ruble crisis, EU leaders watched in panic as the economic sanctions they had adopted nearly brought down the world’s eighth largest economy. Likewise, in early 2014, it came as an utter shock to Brussels that something as mundane as an Association 58 A S P E N and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with Ukraine could spark a revolution and even war. By contrast, Mr. Putin is well aware of the magnitude of European power, even as he fails to fully grasp its source. While publicly identifying NATO as Russia’s main security threat, the Russian president rightly suspects that it is the Union— its democracy, prosperity and rule of law—that poses a much greater challenge to his rule than all the NATO nuclear warheads and tanks combined. So does the common market: the Kremlin has never forgotten that it took but a few EU directives and regulations (the third energy package) to upend Gazprom’s entire business model. Today, despite the eurozone crisis, the EU wields more power (both the hard and soft kind) than any other international actor save for the US. But it cannot figure out what do with it. The EU’s inability to utilize its geopolitical potential is often attributed to the cumbersome mode of Brussels decision-making, contrasting with Russia’s centralized and nimble execution of security policy. The argument is not without merit: for instance, EU’s practice of advance signaling of any major decisions—be it signature of agreements or adoption of sanctions—grants Russia (and any other player) a significant tactical advantage. At root, however, Europe’s main geopolitical liability lies not in process or institutions, but in R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S the absence of commonly construed strategic interests—the very purpose of power projection. In eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin acts in full awareness of its strategic interests (however repugnant these may be) in obstructing the European integration process of Ukraine and other neighbors. By contrast, EU leaders have little idea of the ultimate goals of the Eastern Partnership policy. It pains them to even discuss the desired endpoint of EU’s relations with Ukraine and other partners. Notwithstanding all the institutional innovations of the Lisbon Treaty, EU Member States have so far failed to devise an algorithm that would translate their national interests into a meaningful definition of European strategic interests. The anticipated revision of the 2003 European Security Strategy, advocated by High Representative Frederica Mogherini, would be a step in the right direction, but—judging by the political relevance of the original document—probably only a small one. As a result, EU’s power remains amorphous and diffused. Member States’ governments have a hard time disciplining it: all too often, it acquires a life of its own, spilling forth into the neighborhood and beyond, triggering political crises, social commotion, waves of immigration, and all sorts of other unintended consequences. tactical victory. The long-term strategic challenge is to fashion a workable paradigm to stabilize relations with an authoritarian and nationalist Russia, while safeguarding European security and upholding our core values. The EU possesses all the resources and instruments necessary. What it lacks is a common understanding of its strategic interests vis-à-vis Russia and the Eastern neighborhood. But the moment it formulates them, Europe will turn into a geopolitical killer whale. MICHAL ŠIMEČKA researcher, Institute of International Relations, Prague Photo: Archive Michal Šimečka The Learning Curve However, pressed by events—from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine to the rise of the Islamic State—Europe is being forced into a crash-course in power politics. And not without success: the way in which member states assembled a sanctions package and set the conditions for their lifting—without severing dialogue with Moscow— suggests a commendable learning curve, owing largely to Berlin’s growing weight in EU foreign and security affairs. By EU’s own standards, it was a remarkable act of geopolitical power projection. But even if sanctions deliver peace in Ukraine (and that remains a big if ), it would still be a mere A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S 59 A Post-Imperial Federation: Impossible or Inevitable? Yulia Zhuchkova The European Union differs from the post-Soviet space not only because it professes a policy of deep integration and the creation of a common economic and social space. European countries are becoming de facto federations, while in post-Soviet space one may witness all signs of imperial revival. Empires have always attracted great attention of historians and political philosophers—but, in practice, their ends were always sour. Being based on the principle of a composite state brought together by military force to a greater extent than by economic and cultural ties, they crashed, and the former imperial peripheries built their identity for many decades on the simple and fierce rejection of both the metropolis and the imperial experience. But the upheaval of secessionist forces in contemporary world—both in civilized and violent forms—makes us think once again about what political forms could replace the former empires. any empire was that the conquest of a certain territory was not enough. Much more significant was to integrate territories economically, politically and culturally. However, it turned out to be an unrealistic task. History has shown at least two reasons for that. The first one is what American sociologist William Riker describes as “empires became expensive to maintain,” while “federalism is the main alternative to empire as a technique of aggregating large areas under one government.”1 In other words it is economic and managerial crises: technological and military development made the retention of vast territories by means of hard power impossible; at the same time the technological development simplified political organization and dissemination of information which resulted in the rising importance of regional elites. Thus, to keep them loyal to the metropolis, an empire had to pay too much. The second reason concerned the process of democratization. Since transit from an empire to any other form of governance is closely connected with this process, a great political will I. One of the problems of imperial structures has always been the issue of self-government. Empires were formed as a very powerful, authoritarian political entity having a multiple structure, unifying numerous nations or tribes. To keep it intact three factors were needed: greater financial resources, territorial expansion and a constantly growing military capacity. But the problem facing 60 A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S and a balanced economic approach are needed. Otherwise it leads to a collapse of the system. In all empires their constituent parts were subjugated to imperial center, but seldom influenced the laws and principles of its functioning. Therefore, democracy and freedom were the slogans of all the modern anti-imperial movements—from the American Revolution to the collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. To a large extent this anti-imperial struggle created the modern concept of federalism: several relatively weak proto-states united themselves into a federation to resist the metropolis and/or potential enemies. In fact, this way the United States, Mexico and Brazil were formed, and later, after World War I, Czechoslovakia emerged from the breakdown of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Federation of this kind also appeared in the course of peoples’ liberation struggle in mid-20th century: these include Nigeria, Malaysia and even the United Arab Emirates. But empires stubbornly resisted any devolution, and eventually provoked revolutions, which put an end to most of the imperial structures. British Empire—the only one that disappeared relatively peacefully—also has not turned into a federation, retaining instead very loose contours of the British Commonwealth. The fate of others was much more dramatic: that were the fields of Dien Bien Phu and Algiers, Bakongo and Niassa where the last European empires, French and Portuguese, disgracefully died. However in the 20th century a new political reality is appearing—which I would call “imperial federation” (in Russia, some authors call it “expansionist federation.” In “imperial federation” as researchers rightly note2 the federal principle is used to justify the expansion into to the territories of neighboring states. It seems to me that the concept of “expansionist” narrows the range of what can be considered imperial federation—for example, Yugoslavia, which certainly was a Serbia-centered state, masked by the federal principles, never embarked on A S P E N R E V I E W / P an expansionist course. The Soviet Union was more inclined to expansionist actions, but during the Cold War clearly observed the division of spheres of influence, cemented by the Realpolitik. Therefore it was the “imperial” and not “expansionist” character that determined such “federations” as the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, In all empires their constituent parts were subjugated to imperial center, but seldom influenced the laws and principles of its functioning. Therefore, democracy and freedom were the slogans of all the modern anti-imperial movements—from the American Revolution to the collapse of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. or Ethiopia. The idea of inheriting the imperial principles was often hidden in these countries under socialist slogans praising the “friendship between the peoples”—but should the dominant role of the “state-building” nation be called into question, the “imperial federation” came to the point of collapse almost always accompanied by a war. This process, triggered on the global scale by the crisis of the Communist system in late 1980s, has not yet been finished. Why the fate of complex states in the 20th century was so unenviable? In my opinion it was because they haven’t overcome their imperial nature. Although it was relatively skillfully concealed O L I T I C S 61 (as in the Soviet times), it was implicitly felt by everybody—and today it is openly expressed by political leaders. “What was the Soviet Union?” asked Vladimir Putin three years ago, and also answered that it was “the same Russia but only named in a different way.”3 Because the leaders of empires “renamed” into federations remained prisoners of an imperial worldview, thirty years after the collapse of the last European overseas empire the European continental empires (the Soviet one built around Russia, and Yugoslav one formed around Serbia) also burst. Each of these events caused tens of thousands of casualties, but has taught very little the new elites of newborn countries. Russia crushed its breakaway region of Chechnya in an imperial style, while Serbia was unable to stop the departure of Kosovo and Montenegro. To sum it up, the empires were on the losing side of the political spectrum: from the end of the 18th century and till the beginning of 21st they only retreated, and their centers found themselves in an unenviable (if not humiliating) position. means.4 Russia had never lost her settler colony— and this was its fundamental difference from Britain, Spain, Portugal or France. That is why the notorious “Russian world,” in contrast to the civilization française, has a deeply etatist nature— and in fact performs a protective function, constantly creating the possibility of imperial revival. It is significant that although the Russian Each of the great imperial nations, before starting its global expansion, had conquered and incorporated the neighboring territories. Empire collapsed at the same time the Austro-Hungarian did, it was able to quickly resurface in almost the same borders as before—and even became one of the most powerful states of the 20 th century. In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia lost the territories that she annexed during both 18th and 19th century, but she retained her major settler colony, Siberia. Even while declaring itself a federation, Russia for the past twenty years gradually recreated a unitary form of government, reducing the powers of the regions and eliminating democratic procedures on the local level. In other words, after a brief “romance” with democratization, Russia has again transformed into an imperial federation—and, considering the way she is doing this (both internally and in its relations with its neighbors), I’m seriously concerned with the fate of my country in the coming decades. Modern political practices provide some other, much more promising, options for going forward. Problems caused by the desire of various peoples to gain greater autonomy exist not only in II. However, even when losing, the empires had not deserted the place they occupied in the public mind for many generations. Enthusiasm for imperial rhetoric today remains incredibly strong— and it is fueled, as I believe, by the growth of secessionist movements which occur in many regions and which resonate in different parts of the world. The question of what can happen to those countries whose leaders openly talk about the necessity of “renaissance” and “getting up from their knees,” seems so important to me primarily because the largest empire—the history of which is not yet completed—is the Russian Federation. Russia is definitely a unique empire. It is worth noting that Russia developed as an empire without overseas territories—where within one state a metropolis coexisted with both the settler colony and possessions controlled by military 62 A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S Russia. Each of the great imperial nations, before starting its global expansion, had conquered and incorporated the neighboring territories. In the Russian case these were inhabited by the peoples residing on the Volga shores, like Tatars, Mordovians, or Bashkirs; in the English one—by the Welsh and the Scots, in the case of Spain—by the heirs of the Moors in the south, and by Catalans and Basques in the north. In Europe, where the farewell to colonial past, although painful, was not considered “the greatest catastrophe of the past century,” the statesmen are now very attentive to any requirements of the regions claiming greater autonomy. Over the past thirty years, the Great Britain, the country which is de jure a unitary state, de facto became a “hybrid” political body. The Scottish Parliament, National Assemblies for Wales and the Northern Ireland alongside with the Greater London Assembly (as their executive bodies) have no less authority than many regions in formally federal states. The same applies to Catalonia in Spain, Lombardy and Autonomous Region of Bolzano in Italy. In fact, many European countries have long started to turn into quasi-federations, not even calling themselves as such. Not so long ago, Fareed Zakaria pointed out that for a society it is much easier to transform to a liberal democracy from liberal autocracy than from illiberal democracy.5 This is a very profound remark, which indicates that it is much easier to change some formal features if the essential elements of society have already changed— as opposed to the social basis, even if its forms seem quite advanced. The same applies to the policy system. A modern federation is much easier to approach if one moves from formally unitary society that had long ago accepted the principles of devolution, than from a “federation,” where in reality nothing federative could be found. In my opinion, this is happening in Europe today. We witness a formation of a completely new political form, which I call the post-imperial federation. Its value in the future may be so great that it A S P E N R E V I E W / P will become Europe’s second most important contribution (after the transnational European integration) to the modern non-violent world of the 21st century. The success of those voting for a unified Britain, demonstrated in a democratic and free referendum in Scotland on September 18, 2014, the inevitability of a future referendum in Catalonia, the ability of the authorities of European countries to go ahead of events, providing regions with more rights than they are even willing to claim—all this makes me optimistic about the prospects of post-imperial federations. I would say that if the empire wants to keep what was left of it, it must turn into a post-imperial federation—otherwise one can be almost certain that it has no future. III. Returning to the dichotomy of imperial and post-imperial federations, I will note that the preference to the first or to the second option today distinguishes Russia (and former Soviet countries in general) from the member-states of the European Union. Inside the post-Soviet space neither the former colonial power (Russia), nor her former possessions (Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, Uzbekistan) are ready to start the “federalization from above” as it was done in the UK, Spain and Italy. On the contrary, the abolition of autonomous regions in Georgia—a fully meaningless move made in 1990—sparked a war that ultimately led to the loss of both the country’s regions neighboring with Russia. Stubborn unwillingness of the Ukrainian government to recognize the Russian language (used in everyday life by the majority of the country’s citizens) became the pretext for Russia’s unprecedented intervention in Ukraine’s internal affairs—masked as the defense of its “Russian-speaking” population. “Romanization,” with which the first government of independent Moldova was really obsessed, fueled acute protests among the residents of Transnistria, which ultimately made that area a quasi-inde- O L I T I C S 63 pendent state. As a result the idea of “federalization” is perceived in Russia as a synonym to separatism—the authorities welcome it where they want to undermine the state institutions (in particular, the Russian leaders stubbornly call for “federalization” of Ukraine’s eastern regions), but strongly oppose it where the process is considered dangerous for themselves (one can recall with what sophisticated persistence the power elite discredited and prohibited the “March for the federalization of Siberia” planned by a group of young activists in Novosibirsk for August 17, 2014). The post-Soviet space today does not accept any genuine federalism—and this means that the ongoing process of its disintegration and restructuring is not finished. Unfortunately, in 2014 we saw particularly numerous proofs of this fact. In contrast, in Europe the Scottish referendum became, in my view, the turning point in the perception of the new federalism. Voting to retain a single country, the British proved that “there are things more important than sovereignty”— especially if the common space of freedom and security, economic progress and common standards of human rights are at stake. In my view, the Spanish government made a mistake prohibiting not only the referendum, but also “popular poll” in Catalonia, since it might show that the pro-independence forces were supported by much smaller number of people than it was expected. In Europe today, there are all the necessary frameworks for organized devolution. It is better to recognize the inevitable path of events and turn it to your advantage than to try to resist the inevitable. Thus, today the European Union differs from the post-Soviet space not only because it professes a policy of deep integration and the creation of a common economic and social space, while in the former Soviet Union many governments are fostering the strategy of “managed instability.” But also because internally so many European countries (even those that do not formally recognize this fact) are becoming de facto federations—while in post-Soviet space one may witness all signs of imperial revival. In Europe one may see the last act of overcoming the imperial past of former metropolises—and this allows us to hope that the EU will remain for many decades a territory of peace and progress. In contrast, regressive trends inside Russia and its neighbors are gaining momentum so they may lead to a rebirth of imperial federalism—although in this case it will cause not so much a tragedy than a farce. Y U L I A Z H U C H KOVA Junior research fellow in international relations, Tomsk State University (Tomsk, Russian Federation) Photo: Archive Yulia Zhuchkova 1 Riker, William. Federalism: Origin, Operation, Significance, Boston: Little & Brown Publishers, 1964, p. 5. 2 Zakharov, Andrei. “Imperial federalism” in: Vedomosti, 2014, March 19, pp. 6–7 {in Russian}. 3 Putin, Vladimir. “Interview of the three all-Russian TV channels, 17 October 2011” (www.ria.ru/politics/2011 1017/462204254.html , site accessed in May 15, 2014) 4 See in greater detail: Inozemtsev, Vladislav. “Colonies versus Dependencies: Invitation to a Discourse “in: Russia in Global Affairs, vol 11, No 2, May – June 2013, pp. 37–53. 5 Zakaria, Fafeed. The Future of Freedom. Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad, New York, London: W.W.Norton & Co., 2003. 64 A S P E N R E V I E W / P O L I T I C S ADAM ČERNÝ Europe Has to Reckon with an Aggressive Russia A nyone in Europe who believed, or at least hoped, that the conflict with Russia would be toned down or even resolved in the near future, will have to accept an uncomfortable truth now, almost a year since the annexation of Crimea. In all probability, the conflict is here to stay. That means that in the coming months the European Union will have to face a number of problems, each of them quite considerable in its own right: its relations with Russia; the impact of the economic crisis; and the internal workings of the EU, which will be on the agenda after the UK elections. In terms of foreign relations, Europe will continue to face Russia’s aggressive behavior, symbolized by Ukraine and fostered by a sense of uncertainty and the siege mentality stemming from it. All this is further amplified by Russia’s economic problems which escalated towards the end of 2014 as a result of the plummeting exchange rate of the ruble, and have been exacerbated by the falling oil and gas revenues. Europe has few options for changing the behavior of Russia under Vladimir Putin’s leadership. Most importantly, it must not accept Moscow’s narrative, which blames the current conflict on the West because it has integrated parts of the former eastern communist bloc and, to add insult to injury, has also held out the prospect of integration—albeit more on a theoretical level—of the former Soviet Union successor countries. Such an interpretation of the past A S P E N R E V I E W / C ADAM ČERNÝ Adam Černý is the chief of the Syndicate of the Journalists of the Czech Republic and a member of the Editorial Board of the Aspen Review. Photo: Archive Adam Černý quarter of a century is based solely on a power perspective, as Moscow claims the right to assert its own interests while denying the same to her neighbors. What this policy inevitably brings to mind regarding the former eastern bloc is the notion of limited sovereignty with which the Kremlin under Leonid Brezhnev used to justify the August 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Vladimir Putin’s policy of asserting his special rights in the “near abroad” is indicative of structural problems within the country which had for centuries been known as Russia, for seventy O M M E N T 65 years as the Soviet Union, and has once again become Russia. It still is a world power with a number of unresolved or suppressed internal conflicts and frozen tensions. It is a country that, like Tito’s Yugoslavia, is not held together by the motto of Fraternity and Unity but rather by a stern regime that suppresses opposition and exercises strict control over the media. France and Germany, two of the key players in Western Europe, were able to reflect on their past and to arrive at the basic consensus that they wish to avoid destructive conflict in the future. In Russia, on the other hand, past internal conflicts and current tense relations with the “near abroad” generate a sense of being under a threat. Russia continues to be a (post)colonial power, considering its conquered territories an integral part of itself, in the same way as many French used to regard Algeria as part of France. The current Russian leadership encourages this kind of thinking, as demonstrated by the ostentatious celebrations of “Crimea’s return home.” With its present-day foreign policy, Russia has vindicated Václav Havel’s warning that one of Russia’s key problems is not being aware of its own boundaries. The imperialist behavior, which in Ukraine has taken the form of a “hybrid war,” relies on the effectiveness of a partially reformed army as well as on effective propaganda. However, present-day Russia suffers from a fundamental weakness. It is its lack of so-called soft power, an attractiveness created by a prosperous economy in a country that runs its affairs in a way that looks like a recipe for success that others might be tempted to follow. Another reason for Russia’s lack of stability is its reliance on a rentier economy. Any growth in the country’s economy under Vladimir Putin was largely, if not entirely, due to the rising price of oil and gas. The only visible modernization— that of the army—was triggered by the tough experience of the adventure in Georgia. No comparable modernization has taken place in the economy, in the scholarly, research and devel- 66 A S P E N opment sectors, in transport infrastructure or in the extraction of oil and gas. The latter, being export articles, are strategically critical for Russia, as the events at the end of last year so dramatically demonstrated. The weaknesses listed above inevitably point back to Europe since Europe, or more precisely the West as a whole, could play a key role in the modernization which Russia so badly needs. However, the current conflict triggered by the annexation of Crimea and by Russia’s support for the separatists in eastern Ukraine, has severely reduced the chances for this kind of strategic cooperation. Vladimir Putin’s policy of asserting his special rights in the “near abroad” is indicative of structural problems within the country which had for centuries been known as Russia, for seventy years as the Soviet Union, and has once again become Russia. A way out of this situation would be difficult even if it had not been for the current conflict. This has to do with the notion of “respect,” which Russian politicians in general and Vladimir Putin in particular have often invoked and demanded. This attitude is nicely summed up by an anecdote from a Moscow McDonald’s: when a foreign tourist suggested to a grim-faced assistant that it wouldn’t do any harm if she smiled at her customers from time to time, she replied: ‘’Why should I? We’re the ones who have R E V I E W / C O M M E N T the meat after all.” This episode illustrates more than just the communist mentality of permanent shortages; it also has wider implications. In recent years Russia has applied a policy based on similar assumptions to its oil and gas trade, since Moscow regards trade in energy resources as a source of revenue while at the same time using it as an instrument of exercising its power in foreign policy. Last year’s slump in oil prices, which resulted from the competition between Arab oil producers and the US, exposed a fundamental flaw in this policy, revealing that it is incapable of influencing the competition. The results of this experience might be positive for the West, if only Moscow would draw the conclusion that it could benefit more from switching from confrontation to some form of cooperation. However, it is highly unlikely that having spent years at the apex of power, the current Kremlin leadership (and Vladimir Putin in particular) might be interested in this kind of shift. A S P E N R E V I E W / C The shaken confidence and weakening of present-day Russia is reminiscent of the Soviet Union in the last decade of its existence, when the then Communist Party leader Mikhail Gorbachev decided to resolve the critical situation by a deal. However, his policies are nowadays regarded as high treason in Russia, associated as they are with the Cold War defeat, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the weakening of Russia as a world power. This only increases the chance that Moscow will not budge from its current confrontational course. Europe and the West as a whole have no choice but to reject this expansionist policy while maintaining cooperation in areas of common interest, such as the fight against radical Islamist terrorism. After all, it is an undeniable fact that at 17 percent of the total, Russia’s Muslim population is higher than that of any country in Europe. O M M E N T 67 The End of Equality Jan Sowa Citizens of developed societies have always regarded themselves as the winners of globalization. But this is not true—the capitalist revolution is devouring its own children. Perhaps in the nineteenth century there were texts more affirmatively speaking about capitalism than The Communist Manifesto, but not many of them appeared. As paradoxical as it sounds, The Manifesto is not only a frontal attack on capitalism, but also its great apology. Marx and Engels extensively and openly praised the ability of capitalism to destroy the old, feudal relations, melting everything that was solid. This point of view is quite clear if you remember the evident progressivism in Marx’s thinking—he sees capitalism as terrible, but still better than what went before: slavery and feudalism. It is a pragmatic and technical superiority— Marx was aware that at a certain stage of its development capitalism was a factor positively transforming society through accelerating the pace of development of the means of production and through releasing the productive forces from feudal shackles. Marx, who avoids an ahistorical approach and considers socio-economic phenomena in their specific contexts, perceives capitalism in a perspective similar to that in which the French Revolution showed it (we must remember that Marx was born only three decades after this event and lived in an era which was defined, among other things, by the bourgeois revolution in France). A S P E N R E V I E W / E The triumphant and dramatic appearance of the bourgeoisie on the scene held equality on its banners and there was no hypocrisy in that. The third estate, celebrated by Emmanuel Joseph Sieyès in his pamphlet from January 1789, called for a destruction of the traditional system of privileges in the stratified society. Equality was one of the sincere goals of the French Revolution, this political operator of maturing capitalism. Marx and Engels accept at face value the progressive consequences of the capitalist order, but they go beyond the dispute between liberalism and conservatism, in which this issue is usually framed. The authors of The Communist Manifesto are relentless critics of the modern social order, in which they are remindful of conservatives. But in contrast to conservatives they do not believe that the golden era has already passed. On the contrary, they regard previous historical epochs as more oppressive and unjust, so the destruction of the old society seems to be a step forward. This appreciation of the progressive force of capitalism resembles the position of the liberals. But unlike them, Marx and Engels do not want to recognize it as the last possible stage of development of human societies. Capitalism, although in many respects terrible, is better than everything that has gone C O N O M Y 69 before, but it also needs to be overcome in the name of a new, better order. One of the problems with capitalism that haunts Marx and Engels is that progress achieved by this system (through destroying feudalism) comes at a very high price. Capitalist wealth is generated at an enormous social cost. More recently, researchers—mainly Fernand Braudel and Immanuel Wallerstein—have shown that the birth of the colonial system and the dawn of capitalism are two names of the same phenomenon. Starting the engine of capitalist development required above all primitive accumulation, which always involved violence. Fencing and other expropriations of the common good, the tragic fate of urban proletariat during the Industrial Revolution, slavery on the plantations (it is no accident that Industrial Revolution in England begins in the textile industry, with raw materials delivered to English factories by slave-owning cotton plantations from both Americas and the Caribbean), colonial plunder and many other negative developments are the price which has to be paid to fulfill the conditions for capitalist growth. Today it is easy to claim that the winners of this game, satiated citizens of rich societies in the global North, owe their wealth to frugality and hard work, but history shows that the roots of contemporary well-being reach back to things which were much darker and highly violent. This is one of the reasons that in the 20th century Marxism was to achieve such an incredible popularity among national independence activists from many parts of the world, as illustrated by such figures as Franz Fanon and Bhagat Singh. It was by no means the result of Soviet machinations and intrigues, but rather of the belief, widespread in the colonized countries, that colonial domination was a part of capitalist development and served this system. It is easy for the American patriots today to praise the American Dream and stress that in their country everyone has an open career path “from rags to riches,” 70 A S P E N but there would be no US success without extermination of the native population of North America, stealing their land, and gigantic profits once accumulated in the US economic system thanks to slave labor. We may try not to remember these events, which is made all the more simple by the fact that “money does not stink,” but it will not change the historical reality: American capitalism, just as every other one, is built not only on frugality and hard work, but also on violence and crime. The oppressors and victims are long dead, but the once accumulated wealth is persistently circulating in the veins of the US economy. The basic problem is that capitalism not only uses, but also transforms the areas with which it comes in contact, thereby eliminating this external space. A look at capitalism not anchored in an ahistorical search for its essence, but rather perceiving it as a specific historical phenomenon, forces us to relativize its progressive potential. Yes, capitalism held a great egalitarian promise of destroying the old system of privileges. In 1788 access to virtually all major positions in the French state and to all positions in the French society was reserved for a narrow group of aristocrats, and what was even worse, it was sometimes hereditary. In 1790 these functions and positions were already open to anyone who could demonstrate appropriate talents and entrepreneurship. Initially, this opening was purely theoretical and we have still not seen a complete elimination of such hereditary factors influencing the trajectories of individuals as cultural capital, but it has R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y to be admitted, as Marx and Engels do, that the bourgeoisie effectively destroyed old inequalities, establishing a new society which was free of them. In fact, this process can be observed even today in those parts of the world were modernity is evolving in a slightly different way than in Western Europe and were the mediaeval period was put to its grave much later, as it was for example in Poland. In these regions feudalism ended as late as in the middle of the 20th century. Józef Obrębski’s ethnographic research in Polesie in the 1930s shows that the feudal order persisted there in an almost undisturbed form. We must remember that on the territory of the First Republic serfdom only vanished in the second half of the 19th century. It is no coincidence that in Poland we have a lot of various privileges and special status groups, which testifies to our historical closeness to the ancien regime: the highest number of closed professions in Europe, extreme nepotism, numerous professional groups with special privileges (miners, teachers, etc.), and even the highest percentage of disability pensioners. Some of these groups can organize themselves efficiently and defend their privileged position. But as the discussion about the privatization of coalmines in early 2015 showed, capitalism is destroying the system of privileges with relentless consistency and force. These privileges cannot be successfully combined with free-market economy, because privileges are costly, so they must mean—as economists put it—an economic handicap. While capitalism, historically speaking, had a progressive and emancipatory potential (let us also recall the change in the position of women, enforced at least to the same extent by the struggle of the feminists as by the material necessity of drawing women into the labor market) and while it is still demonstrating this potential in these places were the laws of the market are confronted with the residues of the old order, it is an ahistorical illusion to believe that it will always exhibit this potential, thinking that freedom, A S P E N R E V I E W / E equality and progress are somehow inscribed in the essence of capitalism. During the century and a half which has passed since the writing of The Communist Manifesto, capitalism has been in many aspects transformed from the main force building the productive capacities of society into a major obstacle on the way to further progress. In order to survive, capitalism always needs some kind of external space from which it can draw everything it needs to function (cheap labor, resources gathered during primary accumulation, natural resources, etc.) and where it can dump the negative consequences of its functioning (inhuman labor conditions in the sewing plants of Cambodia, poisoning the environment in the Niger river delta, the price paid by Argentina and Greece for the asymmetrical distribution of risk in the global financial system, etc.). The basic problem is that capitalism not only uses, but also transforms the areas with which it comes in contact, thereby eliminating this external space. Delocalized factories dragged behind them labor struggles, pushing up the cost of labor on the peripheries and forcing the system into further reconfiguration. It could go on forever, if there always were something outside which capitalism could overpower and use. But our globe has a limited surface—due to the shrinking of rural areas the reservoir of cheap labor, which under capitalism—regardless of time and place—was traditionally provided by poor migrants from the countryside to the cities, is slowly exhausting itself. Climate change also indicates that the patience of our planet, for centuries of capitalist development treated as a bottomless thrash can, is at its end. To make matters worse, due to the emergence of an integrated, global labor market inhabitants of the developed countries of the North (the capitalist core ) more and more often have to compete for jobs with workers from the poor South (the peripheries). And because of differences not only in the costs of living, but also in habits and aspirations, the former are always doomed to some C O N O M Y 71 kind of failure in this competition: losing their job or acceptance of deteriorating working conditions (or both). The same process is behind the fact that while the rich elites of societies in the center, participating in the global turbo-capitalism, are accumulating unbelievable fortunes at an accelerating pace (never before the top 1% has been making such big money and never before the ranks of billionaires have been growing so fast), the remaining members of developed societies are nostalgically recalling the golden era of the welfare state and high earnings. at halting the growth of inequalities through creating an illusion of wealth. It becomes possible thanks to a creative solution to one of the inner contradictions of capitalism: produce cheaply, sell dearly. Since wages are only a different name for internal demand, in order to decrease wages effectively and painlessly, you have to either find buyers other than producers or to perpetrate a miraculous multiplication of resources. The first maneuver was carried out through delocalization of production—Henry Ford once believed that his factory worker should afford to buy a car he made, for in a sense he was producing it for himself and others like him, while in today’s capitalism a seamstress from Bangladesh may earn a monthly equivalent of the price of a T-shirt she makes, for everybody knows that she is not making these T-shirts for poor workers from the Third World. This solution is as smart as it is illusory, for it is remindful of the Baron Munchausen’s efforts at pulling himself up from a bog by his shoestrings. In the end someone has to buy these T-shirts if profit is to be made. But where does he get the money, if his job was liquidated and transferred to a cheaper country and the neoliberal attack on the welfare state is destroying social protections and mechanisms of redistribution of wealth? It is simple—let him borrow it! This is the second trick of the capitalist magic, a true creation ex nihilo, because the future is something which does not yet exist. And what if he is unable to pay the loan back? Then—and this is the third component of the contemporary turbo-capitalist idea for the world—we will use public money to save the banks which recklessly granted risky loans to the penniless. So we not only abandoned the redistribution of wealth, bringing taxes down and allowing for privatization of profit in this way, but we are even socializing the losses of capitalists, collectively bearing the consequences of unwise investments. How long can you go on like that? This is a political rather than economic question. Political deve Debt, in recent decades systematically growing in virtually all economies of the global North, is an attempt at keeping capitalism alive through colonization of the future. Redistribution of income within societies was replaced with transfers from the future. Can we somehow stop this process and save equality while remaining within capitalism? We can try. The world we live in has a spatial, but also a temporal dimension. You can colonize not only distant continents, but also external space in the temporal sense, that is the future. Debt, in recent decades systematically growing in virtually all economies of the global North, is an attempt at keeping capitalism alive through colonization of the future. Redistribution of income within societies was replaced with transfers from the future. So we are dealing with an attempt 72 A S P E N R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y lopments in Greece, Spain and other countries of Europe show that perhaps good weather for the rich is slowly ending. For many decades opponents of Marxism accused the author of Das Kapital that he had made a mistake in one crucial issue—capitalism did not lead to growing social inequalities, but on the contrary, it allowed for the emergence of middle class based societies, thus implementing freedom in a much broader meaning than the liberal-capitalist one, which can virtually be reduced to equality under the law and equal opportunities as an expression of protest against class society. This argument is doubly wrong. First, capitalism can be meaningfully described and interpreted only as a world or system, rather than in a local or national perspective. Although within a narrow group of Western/developed/ central/northern societies social inequalities were indeed getting smaller, especially during the three decades after World War II, in the global scale are the recent centuries a period of growing inequalities. This results not only from the fact that the West has made progress and other areas of the world have not. Historians and economists such as Mike Davis and Samir Amin have shown that before the advent of the era of colonialism and globalization people in many places of the world were better off then than today and the participation in the global capitalist economy does not mean a victory for everyone. And another very important matter—the growth and the standard of living in the countries of the center was to a large extent the result of labor and social struggles in many countries of the world. Antonio Negri and Michael Hardt once brilliantly showed that Keynes did not only read Lenin and took a keen interest in the Bolshevik revolution in Russia, but he also believed that his proposed reforms of capitalism were the only way to stop the march of communism in Western countries.1 The specter of revolution (for most of the 20th century much more real than today) and the resistance of workers forced capital to some kind of concessions. Such was the condition of possibility and the main reason for the existence of welfare states in highly developed countries of the center. It wasn’t in the least degree an automatic effect of the functioning of capitalism. Once these conditions and possibilities ended, the social achievements started to be dismantled, which was followed by an evident growth of inequalities. Citizens of developed societies have always regarded themselves as the winners of globalization. But this is not true—the capitalist revolution is devouring its own children. J A N S OWA sociologist, essayist, Associate Professor at the Institute of Culture at the Jagiellonian University, member of the world anti-globalist movement Photo: Iwona Bojadżijewa 1 See M. Hardt, A. Negri, Labor of Dionysus. A Critique of the State-Form, Minneapolis 1994, r. 2, Keynes and the Capitalist Theory of the State, pp. 23–51. A S P E N R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y 73 Corruption, Romanian Style Alina Mungiu-Pippidi What anti-corruption in Romania desperately needs is politicians able to change the rules of the game In winter 2012, Romanian protesters posted in Bucharest’s University Square this message to their political elites: “Sorry! We fail to produce as much as you can steal.” The then Prime Minister, right-winger Emil Boc, stepped down in February. His successor from the same party, Mihai Razvan Ungureanu barely lasted a few weeks. He was brought down not only by his own failings—a poorly explained EUR 160,000 from an energy company on his wife’s account1 and a huge protocol bill of luxury goods in just a few weeks on the public payroll—but also by his attempt to be virtuous, by denying local politicians their usual petty allocations alongside the approved budget which are used to show off to constituencies, church building and the like. Later on in the year, a centrist coalition won elections and a new young PM, Victor Ponta, was instated. He was barely a few weeks in his office when he was denounced as a plagiarist by Nature, possibly the most prestigious science publication. Worse still—as low quality degrees in Law are the rule, not exception in Romania, and are cherished by all local heads of police and Courts—he also proved to have a soft spot for energy and companies, whom he granted favors without mentioning that his family’s businesses had had services contracts 74 A S P E N from them for many years.2 Meanwhile, President Basescu finished his second term and had to leave after ten years—a few weeks before his brother was arrested for influence peddling—and he is accused of taking money from some organized crime pals of his to ease their sentence in a criminal court. Romania has seen quite interesting times between 2010 and 2015. Perhaps the most interesting was that while the country’s judicial anti-corruption accelerated, pressed by the European Commission (EC) and desperate to rise to the challenge, using to an unprecedented maximum the accession safeguard clause, which is tied to progress on corruption in Romania and Bulgaria, the population only complained in surveys that corruption is getting worse and is becoming more systematic. Global Integrity, a good governance legislation watchdog also recorded Romania, together with Bulgaria and Macedonia, as top of the world when anti-corruption legislation is concerned, but on the bottom when it comes to implementation. EC highly appreciated the work of Romania’s anti-corruption agency, and so did the public. Starting 2013 the agency (DNA) became more and more aggressive, encouraged by Brussels, whose R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y monitoring reports regularly asked the Parliament to give up protecting its corrupt members from prosecution, arresting former and current minister, charging both the father-in-law of Mr. Ponta and the son-in-law of Mr. Basescu, two political archrivals, as well as many others. But still corruption resisted. In December 2013 the judicial committee of the Parliament spent an evening after the press was gone erasing from the legislation conflict of interest for politicians altogether. It took a public rally and protests from Brussels to have it reinstated. This explains the paradox of tough anti-corruption and flourishing corruption: political parties and politicians have built a completely corrupt system where they cannot stop even when danger is close, such is the vicious circle of complicities. A few examples are perhaps more telling. Romania has the lowest tax collection rate and EU funds absorption in the EU. Both these systemic failings have systemic explanations. The World Bank considers the Tax Authority in Romania one of the most corrupt entities in the administration of the state—even though taxation in Romania is roughly similar to the European average, the actual collection rate is consistently between 29–31% of GDP, a full 10–15% of GDP lower than in most Central and Eastern European countries. In a recent paper, I showed that tax collection alone would return EUR 323 billion (a double of EU’s 2013 budget), if all EU members controlled corruption at the Danish level3. As the most corrupt country in EU-28 Romania loses a tremendous amount of money. Mr. Sorin Blejnar, the head of tax office under Mr. Basescu, who protected DNA and liked to show himself as Godfather of anti-corruption, has been indicted for selective enforcement in exchange for bribes. His head of cabinet was running an organized crime ring and has fled in 2012. He is presumed killed so as not to reveal his accomplices: he has been internationally searched without any results. The other political camp, which won in 2012, appointed three key people in this area. As Minister of Finance they appointed Mr. Daniel Chitoiu, Mr. Dan Rusanu as head of the Financial Services Authority and a Mr. Gelu Stefan Diaconu to the positions of head of Tax Authority (ANAF), successor of Mr. Blejnar, all three from the same party. Mr. Rusanu, appointed by the Parliament as head of a complex agency regulating EUR 10 billion worth of business in the stock market, insurance and private pensions, is a typical Romanian successful businessman, who had amassed a fortune from dealings with the public sector. According to the Romanian media, he was at the time of his appointment the godfather of both Mr. Diaconu and Mr. Chitoiu, plus of the transportation Minister Relu Fenechiu. Establishment of such parentage links is more than a hobby for Romanian politicians and explains their close ties Politics is not the only field where corruption is deep and where anticorruption, a combination of media and watchdog disclosures leading to prosecutorial action has started to unravel the rotten rules of the game. In 2014, several Romanian club owners and former footballers involved in transfers of football players have been sentenced to jail, with charges of tax evasion and money laundering. A S P E N R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y 75 with organized crime. No politicians would dare refuse a Roma leader who asks him to become godfather of a child and a network of such relationships connects the political world with the underworld—if indeed a distinction can be made. As I write, in January 2015, Mr Chitoiu, Rusanu and Fenchiu are all in jail, some finally sentenced, others waiting for their final sentence in a mix of fraudulent and corrupt acts. It is Mr. Diaconu only, who still continues the reform of the tax office under the benevolent patronage of the World Bank. The European funds work no differently than tax collection. Selectivity is the rule and the party has to have a share. Funds are left unused (explaining their lack of absorption) if they cannot be directed to favorite companies. Favoritism is rampant. Even in the EU funds for administration prosecutors found that whole government agencies had to contribute, employee by employee, in paying a bribe to some central office for the matching funds from central budget—funds which without bribes would never have arrived. A variety of schemes exist, but the common model is this: poorly funded parties and public offices spoil to support themselves and their campaigns. A slogan on the door of Social Democrats in the poor town on Roman in Moldova says it all: Join us. Invest in your future. Public sector is severely politicized (down to hospital managers and school directors), top government agencies frequently buy their offices, then recuperate their money and pay the party share. Parties are like medieval armies: they are not paid, they cater for themselves from spoils, but also give a commission for the joint interest. The edifice started to crumble only in 2014, when the National Anti-Corruption Directorate (DNA) came to grips with a huge corruption scandal that revealed deep-seated clientelistic networks stretching over four subsequent governments. It concerned a large public procurement contract that was signed by various governments, and in which Microsoft software licenses were purchased 30% to 40% above market prices through an intermediate company. The DNA has 76 A S P E N started investigations against nine former ministers who supervised this rent-extracting scheme throughout four subsequent governments. Politics is not the only field where corruption is deep and where anticorruption, a combination of media and watchdog disclosures leading to prosecutorial action has started to unravel the rotten rules of the game. In 2014, several Romanian club owners and former footballers involved in transfers of football players have been sentenced to jail, with charges of tax evasion and money laundering. The clubs involved are FC Rapid, FC Dinamo and FC Steaua. The impresarios Ioan Becali and Victor Becali, cousins of George Becali, also received prison sentences. They have all been selling and buying soccer players for years in the amount of millions of euros declaring only peanuts to the Tax Office. Former football star and national coach Gica Popescu also received a sentence of three years and one month in jail. The other seriously afflicted area is media. Only 10% of Romanian media published—and 90% declined to publish—its sources of financing from owners and advertising, following an appeal for a clean press by Alliance for Clean Romania, a watchdog. In 2014 the Appeals Court finally gave a ten year prison sentence in the corruption case of Romanian media owner Dan Voiculescu related to the privatization of the Food Research Institute (ICA).4 This was seen as a historical landmark and comes after years of judicial delays, political maneuvering and media attacks on the judiciary. The case was started in 2008 and the previous court had given a five year sentence in the same case, but it was appealed. The Court also decided on property seizures and penalties amounting to about half Mr. Voiculescu’s fortune, raising doubts on the ability of his media empire to go on. Twelve other people also involved in this corruption case received sentences of up to 8 years. The case also exposed the fact that Mr. Voicuelscu’s fortune was not only built on his ties with Ceausescu’s Securitate, as previously thought, but also on plain post-communist corruption and fraudulent privat- R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y ization. In another trial he was accused that his company, Grivco, bought electrical energy from the state-controlled Rovinari complex, and sold the energy back to Electrica, another state-controlled company, at a large profit. The journalists of Voiculescu’s TV Antena 3 spent most of the last years attacking prosecutors and the judiciary, even the Constitutional Court, displaying on TV their pictures and even home addresses accompanied by hate speech. What anti-corruption in Romania desperately needs is politicians able to change the rules of the game. A start was made by elections of Sibiu Mayor Klaus Johannis against favorite Mr. Ponta, with a clear anti-corruption mandate. Mr. Ponta showed in his defeat clearer than ever why old politics cannot work anymore. For instance, he passed a decree at the end of summer 2014 called “Government ordinance 55/2014 on regulating some measures regarding the local public administration,” which targeted local mayors and county and local council members and gave them 45 days to change—if they wished so and without losing their mandate—their political affiliation (only once) and join any other party than the one through which they were elected in office or become an independent. 5 The ordinance exempted local officials from the provisions of Law no. 393/2004 regarding the Status of locally elected officials which states that local/county councilors and mayors will lose their mandate if they migrate to a party through which they were not elected.6 Following the failure of the Ombudsman to attack it, the ordinance was enacted and hundreds of locally elected officials switched party, followed by huge budgetary allocations to their constituencies which swallowed the budget deficit. The Constitutional Court ruled after second round of presidential elections at the end of November that the law was not constitutional, as it could change the majority results from elections, asked all councilors to resign and left the Parliament to find a solution for the mayors. Mr. Johannis’ party had lost over a third of his locally elected officials during the electoral campaign when the law was still active. His first act as a president was to require the Parliament to kill an amnesty law for corruption which they had been breeding for a while, and they promptly delivered. He then asked for electoral reforms and a prompt lifting of immunities of MPs when prosecutors ask for it. On previous elections the joke was that whoever lost elections would go to jail. The feeling now is that everybody is going to jail, and the President simply has to wait patiently for the 2016 legislative elections to bring in a new political class. His 6.5 million voters who defeated the electoral bribing machine of his opponents, many of them queuing for hours to vote for him, gave him a strong mandate. ALINA MUNGIU-PIPPIDI chairs Romanian Academic Society (www.sar.org.ro), a think-tank in Bucharest and the Alliance for Clean Romania, a civil society coalition. This piece draws on reports of these organizations. Photo: Hertie School of Governance Berlin 1 http://www.riseproject.ro/articol/afacerile-puterii-si-ale-opozitiei/ 2 http://www.romaniacurata.ro/exclusiv-premierul-ponta-a-favorizat-petrom-si-rompetrol-doua-firme-de-pe-urma-carora-a-profitatfamilia-sa/ 3 http://www.euractiv.com/general/eu-corruption-times-expected-323-news-518998 4 http://business-review.eu/featured/romanian-media-mogul-dan-voiculescu-sentenced-to-ten-years-in-prison-68412 5 GEO no. 55 of 28 August/2014 on regulating some measures regarding the local public administration, published in the Official Gazette no. 646, 2 September 2014, http://lege5.ro/Gratuit/gqydimrsgq/ordonanta-de-urgenta-nr-55–2014-pentru-reglementarea-unor-masuriprivind-administratia-publica-locala 6 The restrictions on political migration in local public administration are present in Article 9, para. 2 (h) and Article 15, para. 2 (g) of Law 393/2004. A S P E N R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y 77 Defending the Wrong Rule of Law Maciej Kisilowski Both liberal democracy and business environment in Central Europe suffer from the extreme level of formalism in making and implementing laws and regulations—the approach, which has unfortunately been eagerly promoted by the region’s legal elite. mind that it was Poland that first encountered the post-EU-accession brand of illiberal populism, with the 2005–2007 rule of the Kaczynski twins. That political project faltered but the lingering dissatisfaction of large segments of the Polish society with the status quo continues, reminding us about how short a distance separates the narratives of a “regional success story” and a “young democracy in crisis.” This stubborn socio-political volatility is precisely what should prompt us to seriously examine aspects of the liberal model promoted in the region. What problem with the Polish version of the rule of law has my research uncovered? The short answer is “extreme, often grotesque, formalism.” By that I mean the true obsession of the Polish legal elite with what I call “the neatness of the legal system”—up to and including the actual tidiness of legal texts—at the expense of any serious attention to laws’ real-life socio-economic consequences. In Poland, this fixation with the formal aspect of laws sometimes surfaces in the public debate in the context of nonsensical decisions of our administrators of justice. A good case in point is the tale of Joanna W., a single mother and Even though a quarter century has passed since the fall of Communism, for many Western commentators political stories that come from Central Europe are still invariably viewed as episodes of a grand struggle between wellminded (if often fallible) forces promoting Western-style standards of democracy and the assortment of bad guys—populists, xenophobes, bribers. One unfortunate consequence of such a mindset is that we rarely reflect on whether the Western standards themselves, as applied in the region, suffer from some design flaws. My research over the last decade has been focused precisely on such defects in the model of the rule of law—or Rechtsstaat, as our lawyers like to call it—promoted in Central Europe. My broadest dataset comes from Poland, where I have interviewed and surveyed hundreds of public officials responsible for producing and enforcing laws and regulations. This Polish emphasis may, in a peculiar way, be timely given the country’s current status as the poster child of Western analysts. Today’s Poland is a place where the model of liberal democratic transition is emphatically not under challenge by politicians in power. But it is worth keeping in 78 A S P E N R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y a micro-entrepreneur from the city of Opole, who in 2012 was jailed (with her kids sent in their pajamas to a foster care) for issuing a wrong kind of invoice in her flower shop. Another is a verdict against a director of a prison who paid a 13 dollar fine for a schizophrenic inmate jailed for stealing a 30 cent candy. The court found the director guilty of paying a fine on behalf of an unrelated person. Yet this senseless formalism is even more harmful at the stage of drafting new laws and regulations. Despite repeated encouragements from the OECD, Poland (and most other Central European countries) still treats Regulatory Impact Assessments as essentially a window dressing. The laws are written without any reflection on whether benefits of a new regulation justify its costs. And by “costs” I do not mean only budgetary expenses, but all Business School, we even keep the dedicated online Repository of Governmental Absurdities, with executives from throughout the region eagerly contributing examples. The list never seems to end. Behind these unfortunate outcomes stands a growing institutional framework bolstering the obsession with legal neatness and the concomitant neglect of serious policy analysis. In Poland, this institutional environment includes the increasingly powerful, uber-formalist Governmental Legislative Center that closely oversees every piece of law and regulation introduced by the Cabinet, the lawyers-heavy analytical staff of the Parliament, and formalistic courts and control institutions, particularly the Constitutional Tribunal and the Central Audit Office. To be sure, the neatness-function tension is inherent in any legal order. In the generally policy-oriented United States, the Supreme Court has recently agreed to hear the challenge to President Obama’s landmark healthcare reform, based on an argument that a section of the 1.000-page Affordable Care Act mentions federal tax credits for the insured only in the context of insurance exchanges “established by the State.” On a literal read, this would imply that residents of states which refused to organize such exchanges, and where the federal government stepped in to fill the void, would not be eligible for the federal subsidy. But the case seems to be a long shot and even the decision to hear it was harshly criticized by most American legal commentators. Compare it to Poland, where in mid-2000s the Constitutional Tribunal stroke down an important provision of a parliamentary act because, in the court’s opinion, the provision was placed in a wrong section of the text. Some may argue that the problem of the overly formalistic approach to law is not specific to the post-Communist Central European states, being rather a feature common to countries which belong to the so-called Continental legal culture. Indeed, some cross-country In Poland, the fixation with the formal aspect of laws sometimes surfaces in the public debate in the context of nonsensical decisions of our administrators of justice. the burdens on the economy, and especially on entrepreneurs. Business groups constantly bring examples of these irrational burdens to light. A recent comment in the business section of Rzeczpospolita daily points out, for instance, that after a string of amendments to various corporate laws, so many common business mistakes have been criminalized in Poland that “the job of a board member begins to resemble that of a mine disposal specialist.” In my Initiative for Regulatory Innovation research center at CEU A S P E N R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y 79 studies suggest that economies based on the more flexible, functionally-oriented common law system enjoy certain institutional advantages over their Continental counterparts. Yet there are important differences between Central European and Western styles of “Continental” lawyering. A starting point here is legal e ducation. Although the United States and Canada are rather unique in requiring lawyers to finish a full undergraduate degree in a non-legal discipline prior to pursuing legal studies, Western European law schools still generally offer more training in social sciences and humanities than their Central European counterparts. In Central Europe, lawyers are—to put it bluntly—high school graduates who spent a few years memorizing a lot of codes. Western Europe benefits also from a more robust environment of policy-oriented centers of thinking, such as the Grandes Ecoles system in France or well-funded specialized research institutes in Germany. In many Western European countries, there is also a more developed culture of corporatist-style dialog that allows political decision ‑makers to leverage real-life policy insights of industry and civil-society actors. Finally, Western Europe—and especially international institutions such as the European Commission or OECD—has also been increasingly affected by the American culture of policy analysis, partly through the hiring of graduates of American or American-style schools of public policy. In Central Europe, the formalist zeal of narrowly educated lawyers is not similarly balanced by other sources of substantive policy expertise. Even more fundamentally, there are important historical reasons why Central European lawyers are particularly unwilling to appreciate the more functional, policy-oriented aspect of laws. When the Communism fell in 1989, much of the region’s legal elite—high court judges, influential commentators, notable prosecutors and attorneys—was encumbered with a record of at least some degree of accommodation toward 80 A S P E N the Communist regime. This “résumé problem” made it exceedingly uncomfortable for lawyers to embrace value-laden, functionalist positions in the spirit of the new democratic order. Appearing as non-political legal technicians was a much safer option, especially since it was fully in line with the relentless emphasis of Western advisors on “strengthening the rule of law.” In addition, the neatness-oriented perspective guaranteed Yet there are important differences between Central European and Western styles of “Continental” lawyering. A starting point here is legal education. a rather impressive degree of intellectual continuity. As my and other authors’ research shows, Central European legal professionals happened to be rather formalistic also under communism— the tendency, which (depending on one’s interpretation) may be regarded either as an effort to limit communist excesses by subjecting the regime to some legal rules or as an opportunistic strategy to avoid taking a stance against glaring human rights violations of the day. Reasons aside, if one looks at the history of some of the most extremely formalist legal institutions created in the region—such as the Article 92 of the Polish Constitution which severely limits the ability to establish new regulatory agencies—the roots of many of these institutions date back to discussions and postulates of the legal community from the 1960s or 1970s. Unfortunately, as I claimed at the outset, the obsession with the formal aspect of law contri R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y butes in many ways to the underlying weakness of the liberal-democratic model of Central European governance. Two groups of these harmful effects are particularly worth emphasizing. On one hand, the lack of appreciation of socio-economic consequences of laws increases the likelihood of harmful policy mistakes. In Hungary, it took the illiberal Orbán administration to solve the glaring social problem of Swiss Franc mortgages, which brought incredible hardship to hundreds of thousands of Hungarians. A functional policy perspective would immediately question the reasonableness of these loans: Is an individual consumer really best suited to bear the FX risk, especially if she is sold the CHF mortgage precisely because her credit rating would not allow her to get the same amount in the local currency? How do these mortgages account for the well-researched phenomenon of bounded rationality? But the formalist perspective focuses instead on esoteric concepts such as “the sanctity of contracts.” That is obviously not particularly convincing to people suffering from disastrous consequences of the policy, such as the Polish group of CHF borrowers. These losers in the formalist jujitsu are an ideal group to be targeted by populists. In addition, the capriciousness of the formalist system decreases the willingness of many other groups, especially entrepreneurs, to defend that system against populist encroachments. If the life of a businessperson is already so unpredictable under the liberal rule of law, how much worse can it get if populists take over? On the other hand, the formalist focus deeply undermines the public debate, often to the advantage of populists. For in some way, populists are the only ones who get it right about the law—treating it not as a sacred artifact of democracy but as a tool to achieve certain socio-economic outcomes. Liberals tie their hands if instead of bringing to light potentially disastrous consequences of populist policies—and, importantly, outlining attractive A S P E N R E V I E W / E consequences of their own proposals—they engage in their favorite talk about “standards of democracy and the rule of law.” For most people, standards and principles are simply too abstract to outweigh immediate concerns over the future of their family, business, or employment. Instead of defending the hollow, and often genuinely misguided, version of the rule of law, liberals should focus on the admittedly more difficult task of demonstrating why a liberal state will be better to live and work in than a populist one. MACIE J KISILOWSKI is the director of Initiative of Regulatory Innovation and Assistant Professor of Law and Public Management at Central European University Business School. Photo: Central European University Budapest C O N O M Y 81 Russia’s Non-Soviet Path Vladislav L. Inozemtsev Fortunately for the world, no matter how “Asian” the Russian leadership may become, the Russians have been and remain an inherently European people During the most part of 2014, Russia’s leaders tried to become (or to be considered) as ones of the former Soviet Union—the intervention into Crimea sought to be somewhat similar to the behavior of the USSR in Czechoslovakia in 1968; increasing military spending was intended to revive memories of the strong nuclear power, while inside Russia’ borders a non-democratic system, reminiscent of the Communist era, was built and secured. Russian “politologists” begun to label President Putin’s close circle as “Politburo,” following the old Soviet habit. In the West, Russia’s policy was increasingly described as imperial, and the developments that followed the annexation of Crimea were called a new Cold War. However, today’s Russia is not the Soviet Union, and its “imperial” course is rather an attempt to simulate the past than to recreate it. One can talk about Russia’s economy, whose share in the gross global product is now 4–5 times less significant than that of the Soviet Union, and which critically depends on imports of goods and technologies from abroad. One can argue about the patterns of social behavior, completely subordinated to the materialist motives. One may recall the number of allies the Soviet Union possessed, and the amount thereof, which the current Russian Federation has still preserved. But all this, in my opinion, is much less important than 82 A S P E N the fundamental difference, which now attracts far less attention—both by the analysts and the general public. The times when the Soviet Union stood against another great power—the United States, were quite unique times. Although today it is widely believed it was a period of greatest advances of nation-states, small attention is paid to an obvious fact the main competitors were not nation-states in the full sense of the word. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America were—and I think it was by no means a coincidence—the only major powers being named in a way that rejected any national or ethnic connotations. In some way, each of them can even be called an ideological negation of the nation-state. Of course, they had allies that have been historical nations in the Herderian sense: on the one hand there were Britain, France, Germany, Japan; on the other—Poland, Hungary, Vietnam, at some time China, but both superpowers were largely the constructs that were designed to deny history’s familiarity, and that was evident at every point, starting even from the name of the country. The United States were built as a “city upon a hill,” as the indispensable nation, nurtured by the American Creed—by the idea that human freedom and the pursuit of happiness are natural and essential for each individual. Priority of the private over the R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y public was considered here as an absolute principle—much more imperative than it was taken even in Europe. The Soviet Union was created as an ideological state on the basis of the communist concept of social equality; it was born with the hope for the worldwide revolution and was regarded as an instrument of liberating the world from the domination of capitalists over the working class. The underlying idea was the domination of the collective over the private, the priority of the common good over the individualistic incentives. The clash of the superpowers during the Cold War was a clash not of “civilizations,” but of ideologies—and even while one of them was defeated, one should recognize that for many decades they seemed to be almost equally attractive. No one among the historians of the 20th century would say that the opposing camps were motivated only by their economic and geopolitical considerations. The influence of messianic concepts at the time was huge, if not decisive. The collapse of the Soviet Union confirmed that one of these ideologies, if not less attractive than the other, at least proved to be less effective in creating a viable society capable of delivering high living standards to its citizens and becoming competitive in the global economy. The period that followed the Cold War, became for some European and former Soviet countries a time to rethink the previous guidelines and to choose a new trends in their development. The bigger part of the European countries chose the path of incorporating into the European Union. I would note it as one more polity, which not only lacked a pronounced national identity (the “European” union had the same connotation as the united states “of America”), but also emerged as a means of suppression and overcoming excessive nationalism that ravaged Europe in the mid-20th century. The notion of “Europeanness” in this project, of course, had not assumed any universality comparable with that presupposed by the founding fathers of the United States or by Soviet revolutionaries, but A S P E N R E V I E W / E it gave the system a high degree of flexibility in a new globalized world—allowing it, in particular, to become the only one case of expansion of a supranational polity in the past half-century. The European Union, in my view, is the first ever example of a non-ideological negation of the nation-state. United Europe doesn’t profess neither individualism nor collectivism; it does not seek to impose forcefully its own model as widely as possible in the world—but it’s obvious that it promotes the idea of a peaceful society, based on the rule of law and social solidarity, seeking to move away, as the two superpowers of the 20th century once did, from any national, ethnic, historical, and (unlike the United States, but not unlike the Soviet Union), even religious factors which can distort the social fabric. A smaller part of the European countries, as well as many post-Soviet states chose a different path—the path of relying on their “glorious” history which presupposed a special look into the past and rapture of the national pride and uniqueness. Nationalism has become a natural support measure both for the new independent nations, which faced at least some difficulties in recalling their former significant achievements, and to the old imperial ones who have tried to restore their identity through an appeal to their former might and influence. Very often this approach brought conflicts and war—as it happened in Yugoslavia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova. Sometimes, it became a prerequisite for imperial policies (in the case of Yugoslavia they were not too successful, in the case of Russia they are already quite costly, but not yet realizing all its negative consequences). But nowhere had nationalism spawned new universal ideologies and nowhere had it opened new horizons, nowhere had it become—and was unable to become—a basis for international integration. In recent history, nationalism has always appealed to the primordial attributes of an individual, but not to her or his conscience and reason. Its opponents—sometimes intuitively, but always powerfully, rejected its reasonable nature: C O N O M Y 83 it may be noted as an example that in the famous Soviet song “Get Up, the Giant Country!”, written a few days after Hitler’s invasion into the USSR, the author appealed to repel the Nazi invaders, describing them firstly as the “oppressors of all the ardent thoughts” and only then as “rapists and murderers.” It this radical shift in emphasis one may see a fundamental difference between the communist Soviet Union and the contemporary Russian Federation. President Putin is deeply wrong, arguing that “the Soviet Union was the same Russia, but just called in another way.” A country without any ideology and any set of common ideas cannot become the heir to an ideological empire, and vice versa—an ideological empire cannot be regarded as the same kind of state as a historical nation. The Soviet Union was based on a global ideological paradigm that denied any elements, actually and even potentially dividing people (ethnic, national and in the most radical way—religious ones). “Empire” that the USSR has built, could not always be based on voluntary accession to it by other countries and peoples, but it has never been based on exclusivity—on the contrary, its greatest people, the Russians, was often deprived of the attention it deserved being subjugated to the means of a large multiethnic country. It was this approach that allowed the Soviet Union—albeit not for his own benefit—to dominate almost half of the world, challenging its geopolitical and ideological opponents. Russia today seems to be something complete opposite not only to the Soviet Union, but to some extent even to the old Russian Empire. The new center for Putin’s policies is now the idea of the “Russian world”—an idea that looks not only inherently nationalistic but deeply particularistic. One may speak as long as he or she wants of the “humanism” of the Russians, arguing that they wish to bring to the world the ideals of “conciliarity”, “communalism” and collectivism—but all this does not negate the main point: the fact 84 A S P E N that Russia had de facto recognized that it does not produce any sympathy outside the lands inhabited by the representatives of its “titular nation.” Russia exists where the Russians are present—and it disappears where they are not at hand. Therefore the “Russian World” doctrine is a clear step back not only from the Soviet univer- Russia today seems to be something complete opposite not only to the Soviet Union, but to some extent even to the old Russian Empire. The new center for Putin’s policies is now the idea of the “Russian world”— an idea that looks not only inherently nationalistic but deeply particularistic. salist ideology, but even from the 19th-Century concept of Pan-Slavism shared at that time by many Russian thinkers and politicians who tried to find at least some way out from the narrow world inherently limited by its “Russianness.” One should also add to this an enhanced use of the traditions of the Russian Orthodox Church by Russia’s ruling class, a confession that remains a marginal branch of Christianity, but over a thousand years turned from an independent moral authority into a humble servant of the state—and therefore being unable to produce any significant universalist ideological “product.” In empires based on the promotion of ideas, the periphery may even benefit from formal R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y subordination to the metropolis; in empires, whose aim is to satisfy the request of the titular nation for its own self-esteem, nothing like this can occur (and therefore the Eurasian Union, which Russia now plans to construct, will fail even before it is formally announced). The history is rich in proofs that nationalist empires are very dangerous both for their neighbors and for themselves as well. The contemporary Russia is a very “sick” country. It is infected with its own past, which in many ways was even more inspiring than the story of the other great powers. While creating the largest continental empire in the world from the 16th to the 19th century, Russia found unique historical recipes for unifying and governing unimaginably huge landmasses. Being initially a historically closed ethnic-national state, the Russian Empire transformed itself into a relatively cosmopolitan one—and later turned into a country that debunked all primordial prejudices to the maximum extent. However, after finding itself at a great crossroads by the end of the 20th century, Russia had not risked to try the most successful social experiments, fearing to turn into just one of the many “European” or “Western” countries. At this crucial point particularism defeated universalism—and even if it probably may give the country some additional sources of vitality, this new particularism deprives Russia of any prospect of becoming the center of not only of an empire, but even of any successful economic integration project. Russia is by no means an heir to the Soviet Union. It had lost not only many significant territories of the former superpower, but its ideology, its spirit, and its principles. Today it’s a real fun to look how fiercely the Kremlin leaders try to oppose Russia to the US—and not so much because of the incompatibility of the economic and technological capacities of both countries, but because of their disproportionately different degrees of attractiveness to the world. One may only laugh seeing how Russian political elite, unable to settle A S P E N R E V I E W / E dozens of quarrels even with Belarus, its closest ally, speculates about the forthcoming “inevitable” collapse of the European Union which has successfully expanded from 12 to 28 members just in the time that passed between the separation of three Baltic countries from the Soviet Union and the last re-election of Vladimir Putin as the President of Russia. Today one may become scared thinking about how many new military adventures and how many deaths and sufferings may the future “reunification” of Russia cause in presumably “Russian” territories, allegedly illegally pulled out from “the historical Russia” by Soviet communists. If Russia’s Federation Council is unable to conform with the Constitution of the USSR the transfer of Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954, why should Russia not challenge the expansion of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic in the 1940s, or even the fact of converting the status of Kazakh Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic as a part of the RSFSR to a “full” Soviet Socialist Republic that happened back in 1936? Why shouldn’t be cancelled the recognition of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia as independent states proclaimed by the USSR’ Supreme Soviet and the Congress of People’s Deputies of the Soviet Union in 1991? Would this not be the next step following the actual rehabilitation of the Soviet leadership in the conclusion of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact? Appealing to the idea of the “Russian World,” Russia objectively becomes the main source of threats and instability in Europe; it forever turns away from the West and looks to the East with its largely monoethnic states, which—like China—see in their diasporas a powerful tool of economic mobilization and (quite probably) of future political expansion. Fortunately for the world, no matter how “Asian” the Russian leadership may become, the Russians have been and remain an inherently European people. They can much better assimilate C O N O M Y 85 with other nations than Chinese. As many recent developments show (e.g., the failure of efforts to return a significant number of overseas Russian compatriots to their homeland and the increasing emigration of self-made educated young people from Russia), “Russian world” becomes increasingly dividing into two parts—into the world of “Russian professionals” who are able and willing to realize themselves almost in any society, and into the world of “professional Russians,” whose main business is to obtain financial benefits and organizational support from the Russian authorities.1 The last of these “worlds” is limited in scope and power, since there are not too many Russians in the post-Soviet countries that have successfully resisted any incorporation into their new states, and because any repetition of events similar to those that occurred in Crimea and in the Donbass will lead to perception of the Russians living in the post-Soviet states as a “fifth column” and to treating them with increasing hostility and suspicion. The consequence will be “squeezing” the Russians back into Russia and, in the long term, the transformation of post-Soviet countries into the classic nationstates, reluctant to listen to any integration appeals from Moscow. I would add that the first of the “Russian worlds” is now estranged by the Russian authorities who increase pressure on individuals with dual citizenship, thereby preventing the Russians potentially willing to return to Russia from really returning. Therefore I’m confident that after a few years (or even decades) of “empire-building,” Russia will inevitably abandon them—perhaps becoming somewhat bigger in territorial terms, but being surrounded by states whose identity will be built on the denial of everything that may be regarded as Russian. The Soviet Union was a typical 20th century power, engaged in social and geopolitical experiments alongside with other great powers of its times. It became a place of great achievements and great tragedies—but in neither of them was unique during its heyday. Russia, by a historical chance living in the 21st century world , has done and is doing everything it can to remain—with its imperial authoritarianism, inherited nationalism, and the Orthodox beliefs—a 19th century country. Until now it succeeds to live in this “another world”—and it means that the global community should be beware not of Russia’s appeal, but of Russia’s brutal force; but at the same time, it also means that the period when Russia could claim a truly global reach, has passed and never will be back. Whether is this good or bad, both Russia’s neighbors and other global political players need to analyze with all possible seriousness. To analyze, and to come to appropriate conclusions—the sooner, the better… V L A D I S L AV L. INOZEMTSEV Director of Centre for Post-Industrial Studies (Moscow) and Senior nonResident Associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington) Photo: Archive Vladislav Inozemtsev 1 Wladislaw Inosemzew. “Wer gehört zur ‘russischen Welt’?” in: Internationale Politik, 2014, № 6 (November-December), SS. 94–101. 86 A S P E N R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y Can Orbán Break out of the Diplomatic Isolation? Péter Krekó Bulcsú Hunyadi Krisztián Szabados Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán has been practicing seesaw politics between the East (Russia) and the West (Germany) for years. His aim is to exploit the relations with Russia and with Western partners alike. His pragmatic approach has not been without examples and predecessors in Europe. However, he made two mistakes which put him in a pariah status for Hungary’s allies in the EU, NATO and in the CEE region. Firstly, he talked about Eastern authoritarian regimes as his models several times and expressed his aim to transform Hungary into an “illiberal state.” Due to the government’s “freedom fight” against the EU and a series of “illiberal actions” since 2010, Western partners had become suspicious about the Hungarian government’s commitment to the EE already before the crisis in Ukraine started. And secondly, Mr. Orbán did not recognize that the crisis in Ukraine created a completely new situation, and changed the rules of the game. With the Cold War logic re-entering into Europe, everybody has to take sides. When Mr. Orbán kept on with his balancing messages and criticism of the sanctions, he fuelled the distrust of Hungary’s Western allies. The “illiberal” image and the continuing friendship with Russia represent the main obsta- A S P E N R E V I E W / E cles of breaking out of the diplomatic isolation. Orbán wanted to end this isolation through the visit of the German chancellor at the beginning of February, and then his visit to Ukraine and Poland. However, his attempt completely failed, mainly due to the Russian president’s visit to Hungary just two weeks after Mrs. Merkel. The main Hungarian strategy to counterbalance the tarnished American‑Hungarian relations was the reconciliation with Germany. After the relations with the US became frozen cold following the US entry ban in October 2014 to some (mostly unknown) allies of the prime minister due to corruption issues, and after Orbán could obviously feel the disadvantages C O N O M Y 87 of his diplomatic isolation, he decided to launch a diplomatic campaign in order to improve the tarnished image of himself and his government. The main Hungarian strategy to counterbalance the tarnished American-Hungarian relations was the reconciliation with Germany. There are two main reasons to do this. First, Germany is practically Hungary’s main investor and export partner. German and Hungarian growth figures are generally running in parallel. And the second reason is that Orbán hoped that Germany, a country with a long history of good economic and political ties to Russia, will show more empathy towards Orbán’s “Eurasian” economic extension plans, and to the Eastern Opening in general. For Orbán, two countries matter the most: Germany, because it creates jobs, and Russia, because it provides energy. Hungarian diplomacy did its best to consolidate the German-Hungarian relations and prepare a convenient ground for Mrs. Merkel’s visit. Besides the fact that Mr. Orbán gave several interviews to German media outlets in order to improve the government’s image, the government made several factual gestures towards Germany (and generally, towards the West) as well. First and foremost, on January 1, 2015, Hungary restarted its gas transfer towards Ukraine which was suspended suddenly in late September 2014, just three days after Gazprom chief Aleksey Miller’s secret talks with Mr. Orbán in Budapest. Mrs. Merkel praised this step during her visit to Budapest several times. Secondly, Hungarian government started negotiations on the disputed advertisement tax with the international media outlet RTL—and finally promised to cut the tax that mostly punished Bertelsmann’s RTL. Thirdly, Orbán acknowledged the Hungarian state’s responsibility for the Holocaust in a speech on January 26. Hungary also supported the extension of sanctions on Russia in the European Union foreign minister meeting in Brussels on January 29 (like it has every previous decisions on this issue). 88 A S P E N Seemingly, the success of this strategy was that Angela Merkel accepted the invitation of the Hungarian side and came to Hungary at the beginning of February. However, already before Merkel’s arrival there have been signs of the icy nature of German-Hungarian relations. A clear signal was that German diplomacy has long postponed the visit whose preparation took a very long time. But while the Hungarian government desperately tried to present Angela Merkel’s visit as a great success, Mrs. Merkel’s visit to Hungary proved to be rather a fiasco for Hungary’s PM Viktor Orbán. Although Hungary’s government had made huge efforts to meet German expectations, PM Orbán had to listen to the chancellor’s diplomatic yet strong and determined criticism during a joint press conference. Mrs. Merkel’s visit revealed clear disagreements between the chancellor and PM Orbán over the concept of illiberal democracy, the treatment of NGOs and the media, and the required policy towards Russia. While Mr. Orbán took a permissive position by emphasizing Hungary’s dependence on Russian energy supply and the necessity of Russia’s inclusion in the European economy and the joint economic space from the Atlantic to Vladivostok, Mrs. Merkel underlined the necessity of the sanctions and considered Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the settlement of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine prerequisite for normalizing the relations between Russia and the EU. Following the political fiasco, the government’s propaganda machine launched a controversial PR stunt to shift the focus from the political criticism to the successful business agreements made during the negotiations. However, the leaked information about a new BMW manufacturing plant and the expansion of the existing Mercedes-Benz plant was soon denied by both companies. Although the fact that Mrs. Merkel’s visit helped Mr. Orbán send a message to the Hungarian public that he is not treated as a pariah R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y in the West, his attempt to position himself as a mediator between Russia and the EU clearly failed. Furthermore, the visit made clear that there is an agreement between Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Orbán only in general questions and on the surface regarding the policy towards Russia. Thirdly, the leaked information on high-level business agreements that proved to be false or half-true just deteriorated the government’s credibility both domestically and internationally. Due to all this, Mrs. Merkel’s visit failed to prove Hungary’s acceptance among the Western partners even though Mr. Orbán stressed many times during Mrs. Merkel’s visit that Hungary is committed to support Germany’s position on the foreign policy. the agreements to be signed during the visit (e.g. agreement between the health and education ministries of the two countries, treaty on the opening of a Hungarian general consulate in Russian Kazan and a memorandum about the diplomatic calendar for 2015). However, in reality, none of the agreements would have required Mr. Putin’s visit which was against the EU consensus about freezing bilateral meetings between Russia and EU member states since the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17. Nevertheless, the visit was a clear success for the Russian president and a disaster for Mr. Orbán’s appreciation among Western allies. Through his visit to Hungary Mr. Putin was able to declare that there are EU and NATO members that are still highly supportive towards Russia and give him a warm welcome even in times of tense relations (he could express the same in Cyprus). At the time when the fighting in Debaltseve intensified putting the fragile Minsk II agreement to risk, Putin was able to send a message to the European, American and Ukrainian leaders about the conflict, with the prime minister of a member state on his side. The visits of Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Putin made obvious that Mr. Orbán’s seesaw politics between the East and the West had failed and that the balance has toppled. The meeting and especially the press conference between the Russian president and the Hungarian prime minister was much friendlier than the rather frozen Merkel-Orbán meeting. The friendly relations with Russia might not only be based on the acceptance of Hungary’s dependence on Russian energy supply or certain ideological and practical commonalities regarding the “illiberal tendencies.” Hungary is going to receive a EUR 10 billion loan from Russia to build two new nuclear reactors within the next decades. However, the agreement is kept secret and the conditions have not been made public yet. Without publicity, the deal poses a huge risk of corruption. On the other hand, The visits of Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Putin made obvious that Mr. Orbán’s seesaw politics between the East and the West had failed and that the balance has toppled. Just two weeks after such a half-hearted reconciliation with Germany and the Western partners, Mr. Putin’s visit to Budapest revealed the full failure of Hungary’s foreign policy strategy. Mr. Putin’s visit came at an inconvenient time for Mr. Orbán since it demonstrated Hungary’s dependence on Russia and that the country is hemmed in between Russia and the West. In order to change that image, the Hungarian government tried to attribute major importance to Mr. Putin’s visit beforehand by listing the issues (e.g. terms of a new long-term gas treaty, Paks 2 nuclear plant, Minsk agreement, possible purchase of Sberbank) that would be discussed by Mr. Orbán and Mr. Putin as well as A S P E N R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y 89 the “cheap energy” is a fundament of Orbán’s domestic populist policies. He needs Russia to provide his voter base with cheap gas which was the main reason of his re-election in 2014 national elections. The failure and Hungary’s isolation became evident during Mr. Orbán’s visit to Warsaw just two days after the friendly handshakes between him and Mr. Putin. Besides being Hungary’s traditional ally and closest partner in the CEE region, Poland is a strong supporter of Ukraine and committed to halt Russian aggression in Europe. Based on this, it came as no surprise that the Polish Prime Minister Kopacz criticized Hungary’s stance towards Russia almost explicitly underlining the crucial importance of a united European position. Ms. Kopacz described the talks between her and her Hungarian counterpart as hard and straightforward. While at the joint press conference the Polish PM underlined the duty of Poland and Hungary towards the nations fighting for independence and described the events in Ukraine as Russia’s aggression, Mr. Orbán emphasized the necessity of Ukraine’s constitutional reform and a common Eurasian economic space between the EU and Russia— in line with Mr. Putin’s rhetoric. Even Kaczinsky, the biggest former fan of Orbán, declared his disappointment and practically sent a message that Orbán betrayed Europe. The fiasco in Warsaw was a clear sign of the isolation of Hungary due to the government’s foreign policy strategy. Even though Orbán would be ready to make further gestures towards Western partners in order to reconcile them, breaking out of the isolation would require a clear turn which he is unlikely to be ready to make due to domestic reasons and the benefits he expects from the Russian relations. While we cannot expect on the one side that Hungary alone will be breaking the EU consensus over sanctions in the future, Hungary can remain an important member in the club of sanctions-critical EU member states along with Greece, Cyprus, 90 A S P E N Slovakia, Czech Republic and Austria. However, the faith of Orbán’s foreign policy will depend on the events in Ukraine. If the Minsk II agreement will not hold and the fighting intensifies (e.g., Mariupol will be attacked by the rebels), Germany and the EU will be forced to take a harsher stance against Russia. In such a scenario, Hungary’s balancing attempts will not be tolerated anymore and Mr. Orbán will be forced to take a clear stand. P É T E R K R E K Ó , B U L C S Ú H U N YA D I , KRISZTIÁN SZABADOS are members of Political Capital Institute Photos: Archive Political Capital Institute R E V I E W / E C O N O M Y MARTIN EHL Has the Turnaround to Russia Been Good for the Czech Economy? F or all those who had staked their future— be it political or economic—on cooperation with Russia, the second half of 2014 was a time of heart-searching. This was initially sparked off by the outbreak of fighting in the east of Ukraine and later by the imposition of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US, followed by Russia’s counter-sanctions. Towards the end of the year these unfavorable developments were further exacerbated by the plummeting price of oil and the ruble crisis. This has put the Czech Republic in a rather difficult position, particularly since recent statements by the Czech president had already given the country a political reputation among European states as being something of a lobbyist for Russia. These problems were amplified by the actual nature of the economic cooperation between the two countries: since the 2008–2009 economic crisis, the focus of the Czech economy had been increasingly shifting to Eastern markets, including Russia. This was because after the fall of Communism and especially since the mid-1990s the Czech Republic, along with other Central European countries, had promoted cooperation with eurozone countries that were particularly hard hit by the crisis. Another reason for the strengthening of economic ties with Russia, many of which were rooted in the days of Communism and have remained intact ever since, is the fact that the goods produced and services offered by many A S P E N R E V I E W / C MARTIN EHL is the head foreign editor of the Czech daily Hospodářské noviny. Photo: Archive Hospodářské noviny Czech companies have no chance of succeeding outside the Russian (Eastern) market. One such example is the state airlines ČSA. A further factor that has contributed to the increased focus on Russia is the PPF investment group run by the wealthiest Czech, Petr Kellner. As the firm’s cooperation with Russia intensified, other companies followed suit. I remember talking to an architect who, after the 1968 invasion, had vowed never to go to Russia again. But an offer to take part in PPF’s Russian operations made him change his mind. O M M E N T 91 Until German Chancellor Angela Merkel proclaimed the superiority of fundamental international law over trade last year, a further argument that was difficult to counter was the extent of business interests German and other Western companies had pursued in Russia. The temptation of the Russian market outweighed the risks involved. However, particularly during the second half of 2014, this became unsustainable for many companies due to growing pressure on Western partners and the introduction of sanctions. This raises the question as to whether the Czech economy’s sharp pivot to Russia was a mistake. Statistics provide part of the answer. Following its accession to the EU the Czech Republic shifted its interest away from Russia somewhat, yet by 2009 Moscow was Prague’s fifth largest trade partner. Between 2009 and 2013 Czech exports to Russia increased by 250%. In 2014 the share of imports comprised 5.5% and the share of exports 3.7%. However, the growth of mutual trading began to stagnate in 2013, and last year it began to decrease slightly even before European sanctions over Ukraine kicked in. This is a key factor, albeit one that the proponents of close cooperation with Russia tend to ignore. The sanctions provided the conversation with a new dynamic. The arguments in the Czech discussion reflect those heard throughout Europe: that imposing sanctions on Russia would harm local factories which, in turn, would result in the loss of jobs and trade opportunities. However, a European Commission study at the end of 2014 demonstrated that the impact of sanctions and counter-sanctions on Czech economy was much less significant than what had been assumed. The growth of GDP was likely to slow by 0.2 percentage points in 2014 and by 0.4 percentage points in 2015. The study estimated that some 1000 jobs may be at risk. For example, Czech farmers might lose around CZK 300 million as a result of Russia’s counter-sanctions, whereas their Polish colleagues 92 A S P E N are likely to incur much larger losses, in the region of CZK 13.5 billion at the current exchange rate. As for the potential ramifications of the state of Russian economy for the Czech Republic, the country is not considerably better or worse off than other EU member states. Big players such as PPF play a significant background role since their consumer loans business will undoubtedly be affected by the stagnation of the Russian economy. However, in terms of jobs the politicians’ main argument is the engineering industry and other manufacturing firms—or the skilful Russian propaganda. Another element of the turnaround to Russia concerns new components for Czech nuclear power stations. Russian companies that would like to be involved in their construction have already As for the potential ramifications of the state of Russian economy for the Czech Republic, the country is not considerably better or worse off than other EU member states. bought up traditional Czech firms. However, the tender for two new units at the Temelín nuclear power station has been postponed for the time being and the leverage of these firms seems to be rather limited precisely because they are Russianowned. In the neighboring Poland, for example, local politicians and bosses of state companies involved in the planned construction of the first Polish nuclear power plant have made it clear that Russian firms—and thus also their Czech daughter companies—basically have no chance of taking part in the project. R E V I E W / C O M M E N T Therefore, seen through 2015 optics, the pivot to Russia does not appear to have been particularly beneficial to the Czech economy although, in this respect, the Czechs are not much different from the rest of Europe. An extreme case is Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán whose economic policy— partly due to the 2008 and 2009 crisis—included far-reaching plans for expanding into new markets, grandly referred to as “the policy of opening to the East.” Now all that is left are cooperation contracts with Russia, which include, among other things, a loan to Budapest for the construction of two new units of the Paks nuclear power station. Other industrial European nations also regarded Russia as a potentially very worthwhile partner, especially during the crisis. A notable example is the controversial French sale of two Mistral amphibious assault ships, and numerous German and Dutch business interests in Russia. A S P E N R E V I E W / C The political developments of 2014 took everyone by surprise. Russia’s role in Ukraine and the way she has treated foreign investors have confirmed what proponents of cooperation with Russia had long refused—and many still refuse—to admit: that the risk involved in this kind of cooperation is becoming disproportionately high. The dramatic slump in the exchange rate of the ruble at the end of 2014 has vindicated financial markets which, unlike many politicians, have taken a more rational view of the situation in Russia. While the European Union was in the throes of crisis, an economic pivot to Russia seemed quite rational and logical. In the wake of 2014, however, it makes sense only to those who are risk-takers or have a specific reason to take on excessive risk. O M M E N T 93 Masaryk and the Poles Aleksander Kaczorowski No politician did more harm to the Polish-Czech relations than Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk. For him the “lordly” Poland symbolized everything he hated. On December 28, 1918, on the eve of the expected annexation of the Zaolzie (Zaolší), Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk wrote to his trusted colleague Edvard Beneš: ”It would do the Poles no harm if they got punched in the mug, on the contrary, it would be very useful, for it would cool down the dangerous chauvinists.” At that time the Czechoslovakian delegation in Paris planned the demarcation of the future border with Poland through Bielsko-Biała. “Our Poles are on our side,” wrote Masaryk to Beneš, “they are afraid to live in Poland, thinking that there will be no order there. The Germans from Bilsko, from Cieszyn, etc. ask us not to give them to the Poles. They are afraid of the Polish mess.” The founder and four-times president of the Czechoslovakian Republic was convinced that the reborn Poland was an anachronistic relic, that the Second Republic was going to be a classic seasonal state, torn by ethnic conflicts and having no chance of survival between Germany and Russia. In fact, such an opinion was widespread among the Czechs, shared also by the National Democrats leader Karel Kramář, to whom Masaryk wrote in February 1919, “Poles: their tactics will not save them. They face great internal problems: landed estates—the Jews—proliferation of parties and orientations… Only an ethnographic Poland can be stronger.” A S P E N R E V I E W / C In fact, the percentage of minorities in the Czechoslovakian state was similar to that in Poland, and the majority of more than 3 million local Germans never accepted their new state. Despite this, Masaryk thought that he and the group of his associates, commonly known as the “Hrad,” had a ready solution for all future crises: “It is the truest truth,” he wrote to Beneš, his most loyal associate and future successor, “that only we are prepared and we will manage to bring and maintain order. Our example will play a decisive role.” Solidarity, Masaryk Style Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk (1850–1937) is an unquestioned authority in the Czech Republic until this day. Wanting to express their admiration for President Václav Havel, people often compared him to Masaryk, both at home and abroad. There is a lot to say in favor of this analogy. Havel specialized in activities from the border between literature and politics, in accordance with the 19th century tradition of a small and disempowered nation, where culture was a substitute for politics during a greater part of its history. Also Masaryk was primarily a writer or, as we would say today, an intellectual, willing to forward his opinion on all possible topics: authenticity of artefacts of U L T U R E 95 native literature, emancipation of women, alleged ritual murders, conflicts in the Balkans, the future of religion, global prospects of social revolution and the post-war order in Europe. What brought him worldwide acclaim was his courageous protest against anti-Semitic hysteria which broke out in Bohemia when a Jewish apprentice Leopold Hilsner was accused of ritual murder in 1899. Even before World War I Masaryk was deservedly regarded as an eminent expert on Russia, and in 1912 he helped to prevent a conflict between Austria and Serbia (he was even mentioned as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize). But two years earlier the same Masaryk, when asked for his opinion on the future of the Habsburg Monarchy, said that the best solution would be to blow it up with dynamite. “It deserves nothing better.” An opportunity for that arose in the summer of 1914, when an Austrian heir to the throne was killed by a Serbian terrorist in Sarajevo. Masaryk expected the defeat of the Central Powers in confrontation with the Entente. In the autumn of that year he travelled to the West to persuade the leaders of the democratic powers to create, on the ruins of the Habsburg monarchy, a new Czechoslovakian state—and he got his way. After the war he became one of the key players in the issue of new borders in Central Europe. Unfortunately, both then and later this sincere democrat and advocate of progress consistently acted against the interests of Poland. In April 1919 he wrote to Beneš: “Poles are not a rampart against Bolshevism—they have not yet learned the administrative alphabet”. And in June of the same year, he added: “Restoration of historical Poland means renewing the mistakes of old Poland and is the embryo of its collapse.” Masaryk spread similar opinions in the West, making use of his excellent relations with owners and editors of major American, French and English newspapers. In this way he helped to create a negative stereotype of Poland in the West. In July 1920 he discouraged Western diplomats from providing any aid to Poland. He said: “We should not organize any military help for the Poles,” as the British diplomat Lord Edgar d’Abernon recalled. Masaryk was convinced that Polish troops would not be able to repel the Bolsheviks, and the oppressed Polish workers and peasants would welcome the red commissars with bread and salt. And the Czech railwaymen, in solidarity with the Soviets, were not allowing transports of Western military aid for the “lordly” Poland to pass through their territory. 96 R A S P E N According to Masaryk’s plans, the democratic Czechoslovakia, with the support of France and the USA, was to be the Central European hegemon, in the strict sense of the word. From his perspective the independent Poland constituted the largest obstacle to achieving this goal. A Son of a Peasant The reasons for the universal dislike the Czechs felt for the Poles in that period lay in the different social structures of the two nations and different models of modern nationalism. The Czechs rejected their native tradition of the nobility, they perceived themselves as an egalitarian, petit-bourgeois nation of peasant origin. The three most prominent Czech politicians: President Masaryk, Prime Minister Antonín Švehla and head of diplo- E V I E W / C U L T U R E macy Beneš, were sons of peasants. From their perspective, the Second Republic was a relic of feudalism, and leading Polish politicians in them generally elicited a (reciprocated) dislike. “My father was a Slovak from Kopčany, he was born a serf and remained a serf,” Masaryk recalled in an interview with the writer Karel Čapek. “When he visited us in Prague much later, he was only interested in how the horses were shod, in what shafts, housings and wheels the carriages in Prague were equipped.” The biography of Masaryk from when he was about seven is slightly similar to the life of the protagonist of the classic novella Antek by Boleslaw Prus. As little boys, they were both fascinated with windmills and both were sent to the blacksmith as apprentices. But Masaryk had an intelligent mother, who earned a living as a servant, but insisted on turning her sons into “lords.” Thanks to his own perseverance, talents and help of kind people, at the age of 26 Masaryk obtained a doctorate in philosophy at the University of Vienna. In his youth he was keenly interested in Polish culture, he learned the language and often took the Polish side during university disputes with his pro-Russian compatriots. At that time, he perceived the Poles mostly as victims of Russian imperialism, about the nature of which he never had any illusions. When in the autumn of 1876 Czech students in Vienna welcomed him with the Russian anthem, Masaryk intoned the Polish one. With time, his attitude towards Poland changed dramatically. This progressive philo sopher, advocate of universal suffrage, emancipation of women and separation of Church and state, came to the conclusion that the Poles were an inherently conservative and authoritarian nation, which would be happy to turn from victim to persecutor should an opportunity arise. towards ethnic minorities. Masaryk believed that a Polish-German and Polish-Soviet conflict was only a matter of time and he did not intended to “risk his neck” for the Poles. At the same time he was convinced that the borders of Czechoslovakia were permanently safeguarded thanks to the alliance with France and Great Britain. A potential alliance with Poland, which after the coup of May 1926 was consistently drifting towards authoritarianism, went against both his democratic tastes and cold calculation. According to Masaryk’s plans, the democratic Czechoslovakia, with the support of France and the USA, was to be the Central European hegemon, in the strict sense of the word. From his perspective the independent Poland constituted the largest obstacle to achieving this goal. Therefore Masaryk consistently thwarted any proposals and attempts at establishing cooperation with Poland, initiated both by Warsaw, and by Czechoslovakian military circles, who were increasingly aware of the German threat. In 1930, the president sparked off a diplomatic scandal, saying in an interview with Risking His Neck He was confirmed in this view by what he perceived as excessive territorial acquisitions of Poland in the east (and the west) and its policy A S P E N R E V I E W / C U L T U R E 97 a German journalist: “There are now two main threats to peace in Europe. One of them is the corridor [Gdańsk], the other is Hungary. As far as the Polish corridor is concerned, in my opinion Germany will never reconcile itself with the current state of affairs, where East Prussia is cut off from the Reich.” Masaryk later withdrew that statement under the pretext that it had been misinterpreted. In fact, these words were an expression of his view that Poland—for the sake of peace in Europe— should agree to a revision of its borders with Germany. This is why three years later, after Hitler had come to power, he rejected a proposal of a military alliance with Poland, and why Czech diplomats warned Berlin at his command about the “Polish intention to carry out military action close to the eastern border of Germany,“ that is about the so-called pre-emptive war planned then by Marshal Piłsudski. Instead of an alliance with Poland, Masaryk agreed to the Pact of Four proposed by the leader of fascist Italy Benito Mussolini, giving the UK, France, Germany and Italy the right to settle border disputes in Europe. Although the pact never came into force, the Czechoslovakian president sanctioned in this way the partition of his country in Munich in the autumn of 1938. Silesian up to the Vistula We should give it to Masaryk that he had a benevolent attitude towards the Polish population of the Zaolzie. He personally intervened on their behalf. At the same time, it was Masaryk who ordered the Czechoslovakian army to occupy this disputed territory in the autumn of 1918 and then he was against holding a plebiscite there, and finally he sought the arbitrage of great powers to demarcate the border, which occurred on July 28, 1920—that is in the least opportune moment for the Polish side. The dispute over the Zaolzie poisoned the relations between the two nations throughout the interwar period. Czech nationalists sought to uproot local Poles, while Warsaw counted on a military solution of the problem. But it is a mistake to assume, as many people do, that the Polish-Czech antagonism in the interwar period started and ended with the issue of the Zaolzie. In fact, this was a matter of a powerful symbolic, but symbolic only, importance. Especially for Poland. The Czechs reached for the Zaolzie mainly for one reason. They needed the local coal and the railway line, at that time offering the only connection between Bohemia and Slovakia. For them the Zaolzie had a strategic importance. For Poland—virtually none. In the autumn of 1919 the majority of Poles did not even know that some of their compatriots lived across the Olza (if they even had heard about the Olza river). The biggest obstacle to Polish-Czech cooperation—not just in the interwar period—was procrastination in Czech foreign policy, embodied by Masaryk and Beneš and their—as Janusz Gruchała put it in his excellent biography of the Czech politician—“tendency to avoid risks and fence-sitting”.1 So Masaryk’s critical (and often justified) attitude to Poland’s interwar social realities, as well as towards exaggerated ambitions of its elites, was not the reason for his reluctance to c o‑operate with Poland, but only a pretext. It would be a mistake to perceive him as a son of a serf who took revenge on the “lords” for the wrongs done to his father, a simple coachman on the estates of the Habsburgs. ALEKSANDER KACZOROWSKI Editor in Chief of Aspen Review 1 Janusz Gruchała, Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk, Wroclaw, 1996. 98 A S P E N R E V I E W / C U L T U R E Aviezer Tucker Phenomenological Space Cadets to the Rescue Michael Gubser, The Far Reaches: Phenomenology, Ethics, and Social Renewal in Central Europe. (Stanford California: Stanford University Press, 2014). Some years ago, I ran into an acquaintance who was interviewing candidates for a professorship in the philosophy of Kant. “How are the candidates?” I asked. “One has a PhD in mathematics, another is religious, the rest are phenome nological space cadets,” he summed up. The association of Phenomenology, a philosophical school that studies consciousness, with “space cadets” is part of pop culture. In the late-nineties, the British Sunday Times newspaper ran an article on then Pope John Paul II. It attempted to claim that the Pope was crazy, mostly because he was not only religious but also clearly had faith. But the clenching argument was philosophical: he was a follower of an “arcane French (sic!) Philosophical school, Phenomenology.” If not “space cadets,” phenomenologists were accused of being “storm troopers.” The most influential phenomenological book has been Being and Time, by the would-be Nazi, Martin Heidegger. Recently, the first three volumes of his “Black Notebooks,” a philosophical diary covering 1931–1941, were published. Several blunt anti ‑Semitic statements there caused the resignation of the chair of the German Martin Heidegger Society. Heidegger could have suppressed or A S P E N R E V I E W / C deleted the offensive passages, but he clearly saw nothing to be ashamed of. His sole concern was that the diary should be published only after all his expository works. Much of Heidegger’s nachlass remains unpublished and his family denies scholarly access to it. Some suspect that even worse revelations about Heidegger’s politics are hidden there. I doubt it. It is more likely that the secrets in the nachlass that Heidegger and his family found shameful are personal and not political. Heidegger’s eldest son was not his biological son. It is not likely that Hannah Arendt was Heidegger’s first and last lover. The discoveries that await future researchers in the family archive are likely to display the banality of sex rather than of evil. Heidegger’s politics were extreme within the phenomenological milieu. But some of its other luminaries are also politically embarrassing. Max Scheler supported German Imperialism and the First World War. Hildebrand was anti-Nazi, but supported the authoritarian corporatism of the Dollfuss regime in Austria. Even Husserl, in his response to the crisis of the thirties in Europe, The Crisis of European Sciences and Transcendental Phenomenology had particularly dumb U L T U R E 99 things to say about the Roma (Gypsy) minority, excluding them from being considered European a few years before the Holocaust they shared with the Jews. By contrast, the Logical-Positivists, the main contemporary philosophical competitors to Phenomenology, had a political record clean as the driven snow. Though they had nothing to say as philosophers about ethics or social and political philosophy beyond “emotivism,” the thesis that what we mean when we say that something is right or wrong is just that we feel strongly positively or negatively about it, they were quick to make academic capital from their political record. Heidegger’s supporters, most notably Arendt, promulgated in response a version of the “space-cadets” thesis: Heidegger and others were academic-village idiot-savants, bright in abstract unworldly philosophy, but hopelessly helpless about everyday life, including politics. To downplay the significance of political choices, academic phenomenologists tended to agree with logical positivists about the philosophical marginality of ethics and politics. East European dissidents-phenomenologists were neither “space-cadets,” nor “storm troopers.” Arguably, they were “Jedi-knights,” virtuous fighters for human rights, truth and liberty. But the political scientists who studied the dissident movements did not have the background to understand the phenomenological dimension and origin of their thought. Academic phenomenologists had already committed themselves to the “space cadets” thesis and to the marginality of ethics and political philosophy, so they largely ignored the contradicting evidence as it emerged from beyond the Iron Curtain. When dissident Phenomenology entered public discourse in the West, it was in the service of a different political agenda: In France in the seventies there was not much to distinguish the Socialist from the Communist parties ideologically. The Socialists (for example, in the journal Esprit) endorsed the East European dissidents and the phenomenological human rights agenda to distinguish themselves from the Soviet‑oriented Communist Party. Michael Gubser, an American intellectual historian, challenges radically in his new book the “space cadets” narrative of the history of Phenomenology. He decenters the metaphysical aspects of the study of consciousness and concentrates on Central European Phenomenological ethics and social and political philosophy by retelling the history of Phenomenology from its inception in Brentano’s teaching in Vienna in the 19th century to contemporary Czech and Polish Phenomenology. He mines the tradition for texts that discuss ethics, morality, values, or even politics. Standard histories of Phenomenology focus on its core study of consciousness and are devoted mostly to Husserl and Heidegger, and their influences on Hermeneutics in Germany and virtually all branches of French philosophy after World War II. Gubser, by contrast, sticks with a narrower understanding of the Phenomenological tradition that connects directly with the philosophy of Edmund Husserl, ignores France, and devotes half of his book to Czech and Polish Phenomenology. Phenomenologists that are often considered minor disciples of Husserl receive more attention in Gubser’s book than Heidegger, to whom Gubser devotes just three pages. Most significantly, recent Czech and Polish thinkers that are usually ignored in contemporary philosophy (with the exception of Roman Ingarden) receive the detailed attention they deserve in the second half of the book. Gubser offers a sympathetic, sometimes even forgiving, reading of the ethical and social phenomenological tradition. He follows the various roads taken from the study of pure consciousness to the development of ethics and philosophically grounded politics, if not political philosophy. Brentano’s ethics was fairly rudimentary. Husserl attempted to transcend the study of isolated consciousness through intersubjectivity and empathy that allow the emergence of care for others and ethics, themes that later 100 R A S P E N E V I E W / C U L T U R E phenomenologists developed at greater length. Husserl hoped that the practice of the phenomenological method of epoché, the suspension of the distinction of “subjective” from “objective” phenomena, would do more than allow the pristine pre-rational structure of consciousness to manifest itself; he hoped it would generate social renewal by uniting people who had undergone this process of self-discovery and overcoming of alienation. Scheler believed that as much as everything our consciousness manifests is imbued with intentionality, it is also imbued with values that can be intuited and form the basis of an ethics that is always already present, rather than reasoned rationally and abstractly on the basis of duty or utility as in Kant or Mill. Gubser continues the story of Phenomenology and morality in the thought of philosophers who receive little attention today, the last generation of phenomenologists who wrote primarily in German, some in exile: Nicolai Hartman, Dietrich von Hildebrand, Aurel Kolnai, Adolf Reinach, Edith Stein (who was canonized by fellow phenomenologist Pope John Paul II), and Alfred Schutz. Gubser devotes the second half of his book to the Czech and Polish reception of Phenomenology. Under Communism, the phenomenological method of epoché acquired political dimensions. Epoché became a method for personal liberation from the totalitarian frame of mind, from the instrumentalist objectification of humanity, a way to reconnect with the lost natural world, or lifeworld, independent of social or political impediments and circumstances. Phenomenology became a critique of bureaucratization and the particularly brutal and ugly Communist version of modernity. The Czech phenomenologist Jan Patočka (1907–1977), Husserl’s student, became a leader of Charter 77 of human rights and a mentor to the dissident movement. Gubser’s interpretation of Patočka is influenced by a contemporary Prague academic “orthodoxy” that runs counter to his own ethical thesis and historical orientation. A S P E N R E V I E W / C This orthodoxy considers Patočka‘s significance to lie in his abstract phenomenological ideas from the fifties, the “asubjective subject” and “negative Platonism” that allegedly allow his philosophy to claim equal significance to Heidegger and Husserl. From that perspective, Patočka’s later political involvement is not very important, and did not follow his philosophy, though it was generally consistent with it. This reading of Patočka is ahistorical. To generate coherence, it lumps together texts that were written over forty years without sensitivity to revisions, changes, and reactions to historical changes and intellectual currents, especially in the last decade of Patočka’s life, leading to his political engagement. Gubser follows the various roads taken from the study of pure consciousness to the development of ethics and philosophically grounded politics, if not political philosophy. Gubser associates Patočka with sixties humanist Marxism. Clearly, Patočka survived the fifties unharmed (he lost his academic position but worked as an archivist) by presenting himself as an apolitical “space cadet.” By the sixties he was back in the academy of science. His political and social statements from the period preceding the 1968 invasion appear to me studiously ambiguous. They could be interpreted as conforming to the prevailing political winds of reformed Communism, but with a bit of philosophical context, they could also be interpreted as critical U L T U R E 101 or deliberately superficial. Surely, any philosopher with even mildly left of center political views, would sympathize with the lower classes and admire labor. Patočka considered labor less than properly human, a movement of defense that we share with other animals. Care for the soul and life in truth that emerged only in the Greek polis were properly human. In his later writings, Patočka blamed the tragedy of 1938 and by implication 1948 and 1968, the failure of the Czechs to fight, on their low social origins and the absence of a nobility as in Poland and Hungary. What I find to be a disappointing treatment of Patočka stands out in comparison with the following exposition of the ethics of Polish phenomenologists. Gubser presents a convincing narrative of the historical development of Karol Wojtyła’s (the future Pope John Paull II) thought from the early influence of Indgarden’s realism, absolute values and responsibility, through early criticisms of Scheler, the return to Schelerian themes in discovering the immediacy of morality in our consciousness, and the phenomenological interpretation of personalism as an alternative to liberal individualism and totalitarianism. Gubser is sensitive to historical intellectual development and true to the project of writing a history of Phenomenology from a moral perspective in Poland, but not in Prague. Gubser is a charitable reader. He criticizes Central European Phenomenology only for being elitist. He is quick to dissociate the kind of traditional Catholic authoritarian conservatism of some central European phenomenologists from Heidegger’s totalitarianism. The problem he identifies is not specific to Phenomenology: If philosophers become involved in politics as ordinary citizens, why should anybody listen to them?! If they speak from the unique vantage point of their special knowledge, they can be accused of elitism. Are philosophers the wise “navigators” who can stir the ship of state according to their knowledge of “the stars,” as in Plato’s metaphor, or do they guess the right course like everybody else but appear certain due to elitist condescension and over-confidence? The dark side of Platonic elitist politics emerges only when philosophers obtain power. Philosophers in politics who fulfil their duty to tell truth to power can benefit from elitism if it gives them the confidence and standing to confront authority, as the dissidents did. Professional elitism and condescension are not exclusively philosophical. To take a vivid Czech example, economists can be even more condescending and uncompromising than philosophers. In my opinion, the particular political weakness of Phenomenology in comparison with other philosophical schools is also its main philosophical strength, its methodology. Epoché promises liberation and authenticity, but it also can turn easily into self-delusion about what pure consciousness and authenticity are like. A traditional Platonic analysis can explain some of the self-delusions of phenomenologists like Scheler by the intrusion of passions to bias the results of intellectually precarious intuitions. One need only compare the stark, dark and inhuman results of Heidegger’s epoché with the morality and responsibility that are the foundations of the life-world of Tischner or Wojtyła. This is no reason to reject the use of epoché; but it is reason to treat it with caution and be aware that even when we eliminate some inauthenticities, the result may still be the dominance of other inauthentic self-delusions that were overlooked, a point Havel raised in one of his Letters to Olga. Phenomenology’s self-understanding as unco vering deep universal truths about consciousness that have been hidden since Plato or obscured since the scientific revolution of Copernicus, Machiavelli and Galileo is anachronistic. As anti-modern as it may have seemed to both its adherents and critics, Phenomenology has been a current within modern thought, romantic and nostalgic, but also modern in its quest for individual authenticity and self-consciousness. In reaction to the emergence of anonymous mass 102 R A S P E N E V I E W / C U L T U R E survive well its own victory. Politically, the challenges that President Havel and Pope John Paul II faced following their victories were institutional: Havel needed to build the institutions of the rule of law and democracy; John Paul II needed to clean up and reform the institutions of the Church. As much as Phenomenology offered an effective method and reasons for maintaining personal integrity facing the totalitarian juggernaut, it had practically nothing to say about institutional design, construction or reform; this is the domain of liberal political theory. As higher education is becoming increasingly technical and vocational, encouraging young students to become ever more alienated and inauthentic, as under Communism, only under economic rather than political pressure this time, I see promising potential for a resurrection of the phenomenological tradition. Space cadets may return to rescue the humanity, again. societies in the 19th century, Phenomenology offered self-consciousness that was unthinkable in the sort of rural societies that phenomenologists sometimes fantasized about. Phenomenological historical insensitivity manifested itself in East Europe in conflations of instrumental rationality with totalitarianism, science with pseudo-science, and of mechanical engineering (technology) with central planning that mistreated humans as cogs in impersonal social machines. Gubser rightly bemoans that as an intellectual movement, the flowering of Phenomenology in dissident circles in Central and Eastern Europe from the sixties to the eighties, is all but over. At the very moment that Phenomenology (it is tempting to say “the space cadets”) won over Marxism as a political philosophy and Communism as a form of government with a phenomenologist Pope (Wojtyła), a phenomenologist president (Havel) and numerous other Phenomenology oriented thinkers moving into politics and government (students of Patočka like Martin Palouš, who held several key positions in the Czech Foreign Service, or senator Daniel Kroupa), it went into decline. Critical philosophy cannot A S P E N R E V I E W / C AV I E Z E R T U C K E R is the author of The Legacies of Totalitarianism forthcoming with Cambridge University Press in 2015. U L T U R E 103 Robert Schuster Two Germanies, Two Cultures Carsten Kretschmann: Zwischen Spaltung und Gemeinsamkeit. Kultur im geteilten Deutschland, be.bra Verlag, Berlin-Brandenburg, 2012, ISBN 978-3-89809-412-2 Austrian journalist and essayist Karl Kraus once said that the Germans and Austrians were two nations divided by a common language, pointing out how very close and yet distant the two nations were. This might have been an even more apt description of East and West Germans before 1989, while their country was divided. As we now know, after forty years of enforced separation certain linguistic and lexical differences between the two parts of Germany still continue to exist, sometimes painstakingly maintained by some East Germans for whom the reunification was a “hostile takeover.” Then there are the cultural differences. Carsten Kretschmann’s book Between Separation and Togetherness. Culture in Divided Germany provides a comprehensive survey of the cultural developments in Germany’s East and West. The material is presented in chronological order, covering the period from the post-war “rubble culture” (Trümmerkultur), through the modern period (1949–1965), politicization and autonomy (1966–1982), right up to the final period that preceded the Fall of the Berlin Wall and the country’s reunification. A major difference between cultural policies of the two German states derived from the very way they were organized internally after their establishment in the wake of World War II. The Federal Republic of Germany retained the German tradition of federalism. Victorious Western powers systematically built the new state’s institutional framework from the bottom up, starting by establishing bodies at the communal level, followed by the regional and eventually the national level. Furthermore, instead of choosing a major cultural metropolis, such as Frankfurtam-Main or Hamburg as the country’s capital, they picked the small town of Bonn that had, over the following years, remained the country’s primary political and administrative center. What this meant in practice was that the country’s culture was produced outside the formal metropolis, in several places simultaneously. In addition, a kind of competition arose among the individual regional cultural centers. East Germany, on the other hand, chose the path of concentrating all decision-making in a single center, fully in keeping with the so-called doctrine of “democratic centralism.” Moreover, the country’s communist leadership regarded the arts as an extension of politics by other means. Arts as a sphere autonomous from politics was inconceivable and it would, therefore, have been unacceptable for culture—or at least a significant proportion of it—ever to be in opposition to politics, as was increasingly the case in West Germany, particularly after the 1960s. Kretschmann notes that before the early 1950s no aspect of cultural policy had ever had 104 R A S P E N E V I E W / C U L T U R E a significant impact on politics, either within the two German states or in their mutual relations. A turning point which changed all this were the events of June 17, 1953, when a wave of protests against the raising of work targets swept the GDR, soon turning into a revolt against the prevalent political and social conditions and permanent shortages. The Communists were only able to get the situation under control with the help of Soviet tanks. Although the arts community in the West and the East responded to these events differently, it was generally taken aback by the brutal military crackdown on discontented citizens. One striking exception was the playwright Bertolt Brecht who had settled in East Berlin after returning to Germany in 1945. Brecht responded to the crushing of the uprising by a show of support for East German Communist leader Walter Ulbricht. And not only that: in 1954 he travelled to Moscow to accept the Stalin Prize. This led to fierce protests in West Germany, culminating in the demand for Brecht’s plays to be immediately removed from West German theatre schedules. On the other hand, Kretschmann points to what he sees as an interesting parallel in the area of the visual arts, where both West and East Germany imposed considerable limits on artistic pluralism. In East Germany, just as in other communist countries, socialist realism was the only acceptable artistic style, and everything that did not conform to this doctrine was rejected, mostly being labelled “formalism”. In West Germany politics did not set such immediately obvious limitations on what was acceptable and what was not. However, that only made the influence of newspaper reviews—or, as the case may be, of the interest of mass audiences or a lack thereof—even more crucial to the success or failure of a work of art. Another similarity that could be observed in the 1950s had to do with the fact that the social conditions brought about by the consequences of the war were being whitewashed both A S P E N R E V I E W / C in Germany’s West and the East. Much of life was instead being presented in a more favorable light than in reality. This trend found its most visible expression in German cinema, in the genre known as “Heimatfilm,” a term that might be translated as “patriotic cinema.” Film studios literally churned out films of this kind one after another. Their plots were totally apolitical, often set in the “good old days” of the 19th century and in the idyllic Alpine setting. However, the ideal world depicted in these films had precious little in common with the social realities of the then West Germany, with its vast numbers of single-parent families whose fathers had either lost their lives in the war or were still in Russian captivity or, where they were physically present, still traumatized by their wartime experience. East Germany took a different approach to dealing with the legacy of World War II in the arts. Right from the start it labelled itself “the better German state,” which meant in practice that it rejected any responsibility for the consequences of Nazism. Given that the composition of the population was very similar to that in the West, the East German government had to rely on propaganda to convey to their fellow countrymen the “correct progressive values” in line with the spirit of Marxism-Leninism. This also involved an effort to define and present the German Democratic Republic as a “country of readers” (Leseland DDR) whose citizens, unlike those in West Germany with its consumerist lifestyle, were quite dependent on quality literature. The fact is that the German East produced large quantities of books, there were lots of publishing houses and people sometimes queued up for new titles on publication. On the other hand, Kretschmann believes the great hunger for literature in East Germany also resulted from the existing censorship and the regime setting strict criteria as to which authors conformed to the principles of socialist ideology and could therefore be published. One of the ways the communist regime tried to formulate a new cultural policy was the U L T U R E 105 so-called Bitterfeld Way (Bitterfelder Weg), meant to bring about the birth of a “socialist national culture.” The program was drawn up at a meeting of artists’ unions held at the chemical plant in Bitterfeld, one of the largest industrial complexes on East German territory. It was supposed to provide the working classes with access to culture, not only as consumers but also as its creators, under the motto: “Comrade, get hold of a pen!” This approach was particularly aimed at overcoming the estrangement between artists and workers, by making writers and artists spend some time working in factories and getting to know the life of the working classes. Not only was this doctrine an abject failure, but it also caused an increasing division between the regime and prominent authors such as Christa Wolf and Stefan Heym, about the critical function and social role of art. However, beginning in the 1960s the relative amount of criticism of the ruling or social elites that artists in both East and West Germany were allowed to express began to grow. In the West voices critical of the stale 1950s and the inadequate way the country had been coming to terms with the Nazi period became louder, and protest rallies against the war in Vietnam were held. At the same time in East Germany the pressure increased on artists who refused to conform to the prevailing doctrine. The solution adopted by the communist regime was to get rid of these artists. They would be deprived of their East German citizenship; allowed to travel to West Germany; or—as in the case of the singer-songwriter Wolf Biermann—banned from returning after touring abroad. As the list of names grew, some areas of the arts, notably the theatre, became visibly affected by these gaps. On the other hand, of course, most representatives of the progressive East German theatre that ended up in the Federal Republic made a significant contribution to West Germany’s theatre life with their productions. Theatre became the one area where the difference between the East and the West was smallest. The 1980s cultural life in both parts of Germany was marked by many ironies. On the one hand, the East German authorities’ reluctance to allow critical artists to leave the country led to fierce arguments, even though it was primarily motivated by an attempt to drive up to the maximum the amount of money the West German government was willing to pay for their permission to leave. At the same time, there were examples of surprisingly harmonious cooperation between the two countries, such as the historical anniversary events relating to Prussia. Part of the reason was that the East German Communists desperately wanted to find a way of legitimizing the existence of their state within the wider context of German history. While not voluminous, Kretschmann’s book provides an excellent survey of the complex issue of cultural life in East and West Germany. Although this basic survey does not aspire to be a scholarly work, it is, nevertheless, a pity that it includes only an index of names while a subject index is lacking. 106 R A S P E N ROBERT SCHUSTER Managing Editor Aspen Review Central Europe E V I E W / C U L T U R E Patrycja Pustkowiak The Animal Point of View Eric Baratay, Le point de vue animal. Une autre version de l’histoire [“The animal point of view. Another version of the story “], SEUIL Edition Almost all “Others” already have their version of history. Women took care of it themselves when they started to write “herstory,” kept in a revisionist spirit, and there are many texts about the victims of history’s mainstream told from a postcolonial perspective. Only animals do not yet have anything like that. To wait until they make it with their own, excuse le mot, paw, would be futile (although who knows, humpback whales, for example, have developed an intriguing system of diversified songs, and in fact you can increasingly often hear about a peculiar language of animals), so it is just as well that the French historian and essayist Eric Baratay did it for them. The Animal Point of View is a comprehensive review, in which the author takes upon himself the burden of freeing history from the anthropocentric vision. Becoming a spokesman for animals, he is trying to look at watershed events through their eyes. “A living animal,” says the author, “cannot remain a blank spot of history.”The history of civilization, he argues, is after all also the story of living creatures other than man, equally interesting and complex, and often—importantly—more painful. Baratay is absolutely convinced that animals have to be inserted in history, for they are an inalienable part of it. “History, as construed by human communities, is always told like an adventure which involves exclusively humans. […] In fact A S P E N R E V I E W / C also the animal side of history is epic, turbulent, full of contrasts, often bloody, sometimes peaceful and occasionally comical. It has been written with flesh and blood, feelings and emotions, fear, pain, pleasure, violence inflicted on them and a sense of closeness. It directly affects humans to such an extent that it is increasingly shaping human history. So it is by no means anecdotal or secondary, and fully deserves the attention of those historians who care about history in all its complexity and variety.” Baratay does care. Therefore, he takes a close look at special moments of history, where the fate of humans was strongly intertwined with the fate of animals, such as World War I or rapid economic growth after World War II, resulting, for example, in the development of industrial methods of animal breeding. Baratay is of course more interested in certain animal species due to their involvement in human matters. Piranhas and pygmy hedgehogs preoccupy him less than cows, horses, bulls and dogs. The author proposes an even broader categorization. He is after all a historian and it can be felt in the book. His writing is systematic and ordered. He breaks animals into five basic groups: dairy cows, horses, animals recruited for war, domesticated animals and those taking part in corridas. All of them suffer, their fate is far from U L T U R E 107 perfect; mainly due to the fact that it has been designed by men. Women cannot compare with Shakespeare and cats do not go to heaven—claimed scholars from the times of Virginia Woolf, lampooned by the famous writer. Similarly-minded scholars in various eras almost measure animals with a ruler, deciding how they should look and what they should do in order to please humans and serve them well. Baratay describes, for example, how dragging animals into human history resulted in modifications of their size, weight and morphology, meant at adapting the creatures to specific wishes and functions ascribed to them. For example, Norman dairy cows breed evolved over the years from bony and angular through fuller specimens to those achieving geometric regularity, with the forehead squeezed between protruding eye sockets and assuming the shape of a rectangle—a feature of perfect beauty (!). Corrida bulls have ever shorter legs and increasingly long necks, which of course finds its bullfighting justification—it makes the job of the bullfighter easier and the spectacle more attractive. Companion dogs change with the vagaries of fashion in a particular epoch—in some periods box cord poodles are “produced” and in other eras woolly ones are more in demand. Sheepdogs are elevated and shortened depending on the function ascribed to them. People interfere in the appearance of horses depending on whether they have to help humans in farming land or to take part in races. But appearance is a trifling matter (even though wrongly “manufactured” animals experience pain, for example connected with lameness or difficulties with breathing), according to the French historian animals are the true “proletarians of history” due to the uses they have been put to. Perhaps the most excruciating, as well as the best-known publication describing the terrible condition of animals reduced to the role of slaves, which people use according to their whims, was the work Animal Liberation of the famous Australian ethical scholar Peter Singer, published in the 1970s. Compared to it, Baratay’s book is only a tart appetizer, but still necessary, for it makes us aware yet another time that the ”Lord of Creation” is making a bold use of his overlordship, disregarding the well-being of the creatures under his power. Baratay writes about the development of the dairy industry and the centuries-long role played in it by cows, the history of transport, and the participation of horses in the process of industrialization or wars generated by humans, who are more than happy to use their animal pariahs on the battlefield. In The Lives of Animals the literary Nobel Prize winner J.M. Coetzee repeats the question posed by the American philosopher Thomas Nagel: “What is it like to be a bat?” The American scholar claimed that it is impossible to penetrate the mind of an animal. For Elizabeth Costello, Coetzee’s protagonist, and also perhaps his alter ego, the matter looks different. She scorns Nagel, claiming that it is possible. For there are no limits to sympathetic imagination, you can easily empathize with the bat, leopard or jaguar, it is enough just to imagine their existence, to enter their experience. But there are also theories saying that the special emotional equipment which makes it possible to empathize with other creatures and care about their fate—whether they are people or titmice—is simply contained in some genetic packages and not in other ones. This would explain why many of us are in fact helpless when confronted with the question about being a bat. Baratay himself perhaps knows what it is like, and this is why he is not attempting to reach philosophical heights, he is not trying to “be” a dog or a horse, he is just trying to come closer. Every time, when he describes the hardships of animal life and the violence which has been inflicted on them, he attempts to capture what may be hiding behind their accelerated breath or dilated pupils. He departs from the mechanical, engineering approach contained in such words as “efficiency,” “productivity,” and “task,” aiming 108 R A S P E N E V I E W / C U L T U R E towards a perspective full of compassion and understanding. What are the feelings of a cow separated from its calf and enclosed in a small compartment? Or, a more drastic example, what is bullfighting like? From the human side it often is (!) an idea of necessary violence perceived as a part of human nature, a pleasure born from the alarming beauty of death, a rejection of oppressive morality. From the animal side it is pain and death, void of any ”alarming beauty.” Unless we regard view, stemming from Descartes, that animals are automata devoid of feelings and ability to think. Writing from the “animal point of view,” he focuses on emotions, feelings and reactions of animals, he shows a community—also of suffering. A great merit of this book is that it does not try to blackmail the reader, it does not raise the specter of hell before those who do not want to compose their menu only of tofu and lettuce leaf, it does not incite us to attack laboratories were experiments on animals are performed or some other spectacular actions. Baratay’s proposition is clear, but also comprehensive, profound and demanding a much more serious ideological rethink than just replacing hamburgers with beetroot burgers. According to Baratay we have to stop looking and thinking from the perspective of the navel of the world we regard ourselves as, we must reject the caste approach and grant other living creatures, from outside the human species, the right to be actors in the world. In other words, we must move away from anthropocentrism and the obsession of building barricades between man and animal. We must get rid of the discourse of domination. Does this vision have a chance of materializing? Baratay—and the author of this text too—want to believe that it does. In a world where—of course alongside with a number of evils perpetrated against animals—a dolphin becomes a “nonhuman person” in India, scientists and activists involved in the “Great Apes Project” work on granting primates the rights to life, liberty and prohibition of torture, and developing a cheap method of producing artificial hamburgers is a matter of time—in such a world a glimmer of optimism is warranted. “The recent scientific re-evaluation of animals,” writes Baratay, “their growing closeness with man which this entails—to such an extent that the English language magazine Man publishes articles about the life of chimpanzees—must lead to granting them, especially the species with which humans interact with, a place among Others. This is, of Perhaps unintentionally, Baratay’s little book illustrates how much falsehood is hidden in our language. Animals are its great historical victims. as such the blade of a lance piercing the body, broken ribs, lung punctures. Baratay of course describes this “spectacle” from such a perspective. And how does the military service of dogs look like? When we look at it through the eyes of a dog, as the Frenchman tries, we will have two drag carts weighing as much as 150 kg, suffer from serious diseases, feel fear, experience separation from the owner and finally die from shrapnel or from exhaustion. Perhaps unintentionally, Baratay’s little book illustrates how much falsehood is hidden in our language. Animals are its great historical victims. It is difficult to think in personal terms about something which has been reduced to udders, about the way of holding the tail or the necessity of possessing a narrow snout complying with the specifications for the “perfect breed.” The Frenchman rejects this animal breeding gibberish. He opposes the thankfully no longer very popular A S P E N R E V I E W / C U L T U R E 109 course, not to suggest that these groups have the same nature, but to emphasize that their agency was denied, that their abilities were diminished.” In fact, life is constantly providing us with other examples giving cause for enthusiasm. Baratay cites them in his book as well. “I tell you, it is the foulest wickedness that animals are dragged into war,” wrote Erich Maria Remarque in his novel All Quiet On the Western Front, but this war also triggered in people the understanding of the enormity of the sacrifices required of animals. In 1916 a guard dog was awarded the badge of a scout, in 1918 all military kennels posted a letter praising messenger dogs, and also pigeons were rewarded for their hard front-line work at transporting messages! Also horses serving in mines have been paid the respects due to them. After the last two were lifted to the surface—in 1969 and 1976—many articles on their history have been written and funds are collected in order to provide these animals with peaceful retirement. Nevertheless, the effects of animal lives on people are still poorly described. It is a great shame that we do not have narratives written by the interested parties and we will rather not live to see them. On the other hand… in one of his great texts J.M. Coetzee wrote that it was not entirely true that animals could not speak. In moments important for themselves they can talk to humans in a peculiar and mysterious way. Perhaps in this case they lent their a voice to Baratay? 110 R A S P E N PAT R YC J A P U S T K O W I A K literary journalist and reviewer, author of the novel Night Animals (2013), nominated for the most important Polish literary award NIKE. E V I E W / C U L T U R E Tomasz Stawiszyński Culture as a Source of Practice Peter Sloterdijk, Musisz życie swe odmienić [You must change your life], trans. Jaroslaw Janiszewski, PWN, Warsaw 2014 the foundation of a culture which for three thousand years is addressing an essentialist message to man: do not live as you have lived until now. And then, resorting to various means of camouflage, Sloterdijk suggests to people some more or less subtle training techniques and systems of practice—historically bearing various names and variously justifying their existence—so that they could successfully implement this message. So the newest book of the German philosopher is also a work belonging to the tradition of the philosophy of suspicion. And there is nothing strange in that, since—both in this work and in others (just recall the ground-breaking Critique of Cynical Reason or Crystal Palace)—an obvious source of inspiration for Sloterdijk is Friedrich Nietzsche. It was Nietzsche’s reflections on asceticism and nutrition (which germinated in the short essay Ecce Homo) which gave rise to the science of a practicing live, although, as Sloterdijk immediately observes, “they were misunderstood by superficial readers as a retreat of philosophy to the positions of pharmacy.” So Sloterdijk was the first to undertake the task of developing these intuitions—and in his basic argument he tries to translate the “religious, spiritual and ethical facts into the language and perspective of the general theory of practice.” And he does it by using the methodology most characteristic for the hermeneutics of suspicion: “making explicit the relations which in a whole mass of messages are presented as ‘implicit,’ that is: hidden in the forms which are folded inside and pressed together.” 1. In his book You Must Change Your Life, Peter Sloterdijk—one of the most interesting and undoubtedly the most original of contemporary philosophers—is trying his hand at an art which seemed definitely abandoned in the humanities; namely, a great synthesis, a historiosophical narrative which from the multiplicity of theoretical tropes, categories and concepts extracts some fundamental principle and then traces its more or less visible dynamics in the course of history of the entire human culture. At the heart of this impressive project—an epic which is erudite, lavish, smoothly moving between ages and latitudes—is a radical reinterpretation of religion and ethics, that is the principal spheres of culture, the principal areas of human activity. But they are not the only subjects of Sloterdijk’s brilliant hermeneutics—for his ambitions are total. “You must change your life”—this phrase, taken from the famous poem by Rainer Maria Rilke, expresses, after all, the fundamental rule valid on virtually all planes of human culture. “You must change your life,” says Sloterdijk, this is a metanoetic (from the Greek metanoia, that is a profound inner transformation, a profound inner reorientation) arch-principle, A S P E N R E V I E W / C U L T U R E 111 2. Sloterdijk begins his panoramic reinterpretation of the history of human culture—dating back to ancient times, both to pre-Socratics, and Patañjali—by placing the category of “a practicing live” in contemporary context. In our times, he claims, there is a lot of talk about the return to religion. Sociology and philosophy convince us at every turn (often through the mouths and pens of their finest exponents) that we are witnessing a kind of renaissance of everything that the Enlightenment tradition for long attempted to consign irrevocably to the dump of history. But, as Sloterdijk provocatively suggests, we cannot speak about a return to religion, for “a return to religion is as impossible as a return of religion itself—for the simple reason that there is no ’religion’ and ‘religions’ as such, but only spiritual systems of practice misunderstood as religions, exercised either in the collective/ traditional way: church, ordo, umma, sangha, or individually—in a mutual game with ’your own God,’ from Whom the citizens of modernity buy a private insurance.” By making this kind of assumption, with one expansive gesture Sloterdijk invalidates not only the ongoing disputes about the essence of religiosity and about the difference between religion and pseudo-religious humbug or a sect, but also—in a pointedly mocking and ironic way—the antireligious crusade of the new atheists, headed by Richard Dawkins and Christopher Hitchens. For the latter completely miss the real meaning of the phenomenon of religion, they fail to notice its essentially training character. To make matters worse, they attempt to reduce complex systems of practices to a set of absurd claims about the world, discredited many times over within the thorough and conscientious process of verification by empirical science going back at least to the times of Copernicus. Militant atheism, says Sloterdijk, is a waste of time, a blind alley in the evolution of human thought, a misreading of the fundamental message calling for an existential transformation in us. 112 A S P E N Similar attacks by organized churches on the so-called new religious movements betray a fundamental misunderstanding. They are of course an expression of competition on the free market of ideas and training services, but in fact the distinction between a sect and true faith, which they persistently promote, does not exist. This is why, when reconstructing the implicit and explicit nature of practice systems called religions, Sloterdijk does it on the example of… Scientology. And this does not follow only from his liking for controversial comparisons or scandalmongering. Not at all. His dissection of the founding of the Scientological Church, the meanders of its teachings and, last but not least, its complex structure of initiation and hierarchy, allows Sloterdijk to fully disclose the main features of religious anthropotechnics, its basic currents, objectives and methods. 3. So there is no religion, there is only anthropotechnics, a complex system of practices, aimed at a fundamental existential transformation. But what is the vector of this transformation? It is defined by the opposition between the immanent and the transcendent—and the metanoetic arrow is always pointing upwards. So religious anthropotechnics is a verticalizing system, in one way or another oriented towards transcending the current condition (“You must change your life” means: you cannot live as you have lived until now) and, by its very essence, towards regularity and repetitiveness. Sloterdijk writes: “I define practice here as any operation which preserves or increases the qualifications of the agent to conduct the same operation once again, regardless of whether it is declared as practice or not.” The repetitive character of religious anthropotechnics directs the practicing agent upwards, while the ritual ornamentation or the many-layered theological reflections serve almost exclusively as factors feeding this verticalizing impulse. R E V I E W / C U L T U R E Therefore when looking at the dynamics of development and crisis of Western religiosity, Sloterdijk carefully analyses the breakdown of traditional metaphysical categories and their replacement by other concepts and images—but the aim of this replacement is that the structure of the original practicing energy would not disperse. For example, Sloterdijk manages to build a convincing analogy between ancient and mediaeval ascetic practices on the one hand and the contemporary cult of sport and fitness on the other—the latter would in fact be a metamorphosis of the former, or rather its peculiar degradation: namely emptied of an openly spiritual references. So today’s cult of physical fitness practiced in countless gyms is anthropotechnics reduced to empty repetitiveness, stripped of transcendence, but anthropotechnics all the same, strictly subordinated to implementing the call for a transformation of the current form of life. roto-forms of the sense of transcendence: thanks p to the constant readiness of the immune system to act and its effectiveness, a living being actively confronts potential deadly threats and opposes them with the ability of its own organism to overcome what is deadly.” And man, as the only one in the universe of living creatures, may be said to function in three immunological spheres, autonomous, although interconnected, and closely cooperating immune systems. The first one is simply biological, connected with physical survival of an individual organism, defense from microbes and direct threats which could break the continuity of its biological existence. The second one is social, composed of legal, mutual and military practices which a given community uses to confront strangers which pose a threat to it. And the third system, the most important and complex, is symbolic immunization, thanks to which man (but also entire communities, entire generations) attempts to cope with his “own vulnerability to events brought about by destiny, including death, assuming the form of imagined anticipations and mental armor.” And it is in the broad context of the immune system that the whole argument put forward by Sloterdijk is played out. 4. The general theory of practice—as disclosure and systematization of what earlier was implicitly contained in the forms of structures of particular cultural spheres—at last becomes possible thanks to the development of empirical science, and more precisely, of medical biology. The late 19th century brings a discovery of Ilya Mechnikov and Paul Ehrlich, which is difficult to overestimate, namely: the immune system. “[Since this discovery] in the sciences studying integral entities—animal organisms, species, ‘societies’ cultures—nothing can remain the same,” writes Sloterdijk. For it is only from that moment on that we are becoming aware of a number of processes shaping the functioning of complex, self-organizing, viable and self-reproducing systems, which are the objects of the philosopher’s interest: individual organisms, communities and ultimately cultures or civilizations. “This kind of immunological systems,” adds Sloterdijk, “might as well be described as organic A S P E N R E V I E W / C 5. Producing the above characteristics and adopting the above assumptions, Sloterdijk tracks—on the pages of his book which overwhelms with details and facts—the fate of the constantly practicing homo immunologicus, from antiquity to the present time, from the Far East to the erstwhile centers of civilization of the white man. As befits a self-pronounced conservatist, in the description of modernity his tone assumes a somewhat bitter note—especially in those moments where he complains about contemporary education and art. In his opinion, both are devoid of the awareness of the proper structure and direction of a successful immunization process. Both are bogged down U L T U R E 113 in a sterile self-referentiality, they lose from sight the primacy of self-improvement or at least of transcending the achievements of earlier generations. Paradoxically,as we are dealing with an essentially degenerated form, this awareness has not vanished in the current forms of athleticism. But transcending the achievements of previous generations is realized here only through multiplying monstrosity—through consumption of more and more sophisticated and intense performance-enhancing drugs and crossing barriers insurmountable for human biology. But the ultimate goal of Sloterdijk is not to formulate some kind of memento for his contemporaries or to lay bare the decadence of today’s state of the world. His book—a fountain of erudition and a composition of sophisticated sentences exhibiting a rare beauty—probably wants to be above all a source of inspiring insight, so that we can see the fundamental institutions of our culture in a completely different light. In a light, let us add, which is equally present in cultures which seem radically different from ours. So Sloterdijk really comes with a message of a new, radical universalism. Perhaps the most profound among all which have been proclaimed so far. In fact, he says, all cultural differences are merely contingent. What unites us is our common participation in the imperative of continuous practice. We must change our life, and we must understand how important consequences it entails. 114 R A S P E N TO M A S Z S TAW I S Z Y Ń S K I is a philosopher, essayist and literary critic, author of Clashes with Freud. Myths, pitfalls and temptations of psychotherapy (2013). E V I E W / C U L T U R E No 1 | 2015 1 | 2015 Index: 287210 CENTRAL EUROPE Aspen Institute Prague is supported by: LEFT IS BACK Frank Furedi, Ulrike Guérot, Ivan Krastev, John Psaropoulos, Martin Šimečka, José Ignacio Torreblanca Nuclear Nationalism Has Only Brought Misery An interview with Shirin Ebadi Do Political Ideas Still Matter? Jan-Werner Müller W W W . A S P E N I N S T I T U T E . C Z POLITICS Europe and Russia Dominique Moïsi | Europe in 1815 and 2015 B. Simms ECONOMY Corruption, Romanian Style A. Mungiu | A Post-Imperial Federation Y. Zhuchkova CULTURE Phenomenological Space Cadets to the Rescue A. 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