BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II-IV - CDM

Transcription

BRT Bogotá, Colombia:
TransMilenio Phase II-IV
PDD prepared by
on behalf of
PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM PDD) - Version 02
CDM – Executive Board
page 2
CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM
PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT FORM (CDM-PDD)
Version 02 - in effect as of: 1 July 2004
CONTENTS
A.
General description of project activity
B.
Application of a baseline methodology
C.
Duration of the project activity / Crediting period
D.
Application of a monitoring methodology and plan
E.
Estimation of GHG emissions by sources
F.
Environmental impacts
G.
Stakeholders’ comments
Annexes
Annex 1: Contact information on participants in the project activity
Annex 2: Information regarding public funding
Annex 3: Baseline information
Annex 4: Monitoring plan
This template shall not be altered. It shall be completed without modifying/adding headings or logo, format or font.
page 3
SECTION A. General description of project activity
A.1
Title of the project activity:
BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II to IV
Version 4.1
September 6th 2006
A.2.
Description of the project activity:
The goal of TransMilenio is to establish a sustainable mass urban transport system based on a Bus Rapid
Transit (BRT) system. TransMilenio phase II-IV which is the project presented is an extension of phase I.
Phase I is not part of this CDM project. The first crediting period includes Phase II, III and part of phase
IV. All data listed refers to the first crediting period if not mentioned otherwise.
Core aspects of TransMilenio are:
¾ A new infrastructure consisting of dedicated lanes, large capacity buses, and elevated bus stations that
allow pre-board ticketing and fast boarding. Smaller units offering feeder services to main stations are
integrated in the system.
¾ A new integrated fare system allowing for free transfers.
¾ Improved bus management system moving from many small independent enterprises competing at
bus-to-bus level to a consolidated structure with formal enterprises competing for concessions.
¾ Centralized coordinated fleet control providing monitoring and communications to schedule services
and real-time response to contingencies.
¾ Reduction of the existing fleet of buses through a scrappage program. Through scrapping more than
9’000 buses TransMilenio retires more than 1/3rd of all conventional buses and reduces the risk of a
declining efficiency (load factor) in the remaining system.
The objective of TransMilenio is to establish an efficient, safe, rapid, convenient, comfortable and effective modern mass transit system ensuring high ridership levels.
TransMilenio is a public-private partnership (PPP), in which the public sector is responsible for the investment to deploy the required infrastructure (segregated lanes, stations, terminals, etc.), while the private sector is responsible for the investment of the bus fleet, the ticket selling and validating system, and
for the operation of the trunk and feeder services.
TransMilenio Phases II onwards will be implemented gradually. By 2012 it is expected that TransMilenio
consist of1:
¾ 130 km of new dedicated lanes (trunk routes) including new bus-stations
¾ Around 1’200 new articulated buses with a capacity of 160 passengers, operating on trunk routes and
500 new large buses operating on feeder lines.
¾ Daily 1.8 million passengers transported.
TransMilenio has as main environmental aspect that the resource efficiency of transporting passengers in
Bogotá is improved i.e. emissions per passenger trip are reduced compared to the situation without project. This is realized through following changes:
¾ Improved efficiency: new and larger buses are used which have an improved fuel efficiency per passenger transported compared with those used in absence of the project.
¾ Mode switching: The BRT system is more attractive to clients due to reduced transport times, increased safety, reliability and comfort. It can thus attract private car or taxi users with higher emission
rates to switch to public transport.
1
All data mentioned is always exclusive of TransMilenio Phase I
page 4
¾ Load increase or change in occupancy: BRT systems have a centrally managed organisation dispatching vehicles. The occupancy rate of vehicles can thus be increased due to organizational measures.
The project contributes to sustainable development in a significant manner:
¾ Improved environment through less GHG and other air pollutant emissions, specifically CO2, particle
matter, and NOx. This is achieved through a more efficient transport system and through new buses2.
¾ Improved social wellbeing as a result of less time lost in congestion, less respiratory diseases due to
less particle matter pollution, less noise pollution and fewer accidents per passenger transported3.
¾ Creation of more than 1’500 temporary construction jobs for unskilled workers of the surrounding
communities for construction works of Phase II4.
¾ Economic benefits mainly on a macroeconomic level. Bogotá can improve its competitive position by
offering an attractive and modern transit system and can reduce the economic costs of congestion.
The project complies with all legal requirements of the environmental legislation of Colombia, enforced
by the Department of Environmental Affairs (DAMA). It also complies with the social and environmental
guidelines issued by IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano) and the CAF (Andean Development Corporation). All environmental permits required have been granted.
A.3.
Project participants:
Name of Party involved
(*) ((host) indicates a
host Party)
Private and/or public entity(ies)
project participants (*)
(as applicable)
Colombia (host)
The Netherlands
TransMilenio S.A.
Corporación Andina de Fomento (CAF) acting as intermediary for the benefit of the State of the Netherlands for the purchase of Emission Reductions represented by its Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and
the Environment
A.4.
Kindly indicate if the Party
involved wishes to be considered as project participant (Yes/No)
No
Yes
Technical description of the project activity:
A.4.1. Location of the project activity:
A.4.1.1.
Host Party(ies):
A.4.1.2.
Region/State/Province etc.:
A.4.1.3.
City/Town/Community etc:
Colombia
Capital District
Bogotá
2
See chapter F.2. for a quantification of local environmental benefits
3
In Phase I a reduction of 89% of fatal accidents and of 83% of accidents with passengers injured was registered
(see D. Hidalgo, TransMilenio: Un Sistema de Transporte Masivo en Buses de Alta Capacidad y Bajo Costo para
Bogotá, Colombia, 1/2003)
4
IDU, Registro generación de empleo de las localidades de Bosa y Ciudad Bolívar. Tramo 3; contrato 242-03, 2006
page 5
A.4.1.4.
Detail of physical location, including information allowing the
unique identification of this project activity (maximum one page):
The project is located within the metropolitan area of the city of Bogotá, Colombia.
A.4.2. Category(ies) of project activity:
Sectoral scope 7: Transport listed in the sectoral scopes for accreditation of the operational entities
There is no category of project activity defined for this type of project. It is proposed that it be assigned to
“Urban mass-transit”
A.4.3. Technology to be employed by the project activity:
Features of the BRT system of TransMilenio include exclusive right-of-way lanes, rapid boarding and
alighting, free transfers between lines, pre-board fare collection and fare verification, enclosed stations,
clear route maps, real-time information displays, automatic vehicle location technology to manage vehicle
movements, modal integration at stations, effective reform of the existing institutional structures for public transit, clean vehicle technologies and excellence in marketing and customer service. The BRT system
of TransMilenio is considered as model-case for a modern mass urban transit system and is being replicated by various cities world-wide.
From an organizational viewpoint the system has regulators, managers and operators:
¾ Regulators: The Ministry of Transport in charge of national policies and plans and the Municipality of
Bogotá especially the transit and transport secretariat
¾ Managers including TransMilenio which plans, manages and controls the BRT system and IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano) which constructs and maintains the infrastructure. Both form part of the
municipality of Bogotá.
¾ Operators including trunk route operators, feeder line operators and the fare collection operator. Operators are private sector entities. Operators have termed contracts awarded in an open and competitive
bidding process by TransMilenio.
The technology deployed has 4 main components. Infrastructure, buses, transit management and fare system.
Infrastructure
The project will establish till 2012 around 130km of dedicated bus lanes including new bus-stations and
integration stations located at the end of dedicated bus lanes to ensure a smooth transfer to feeder lines.
Each station will have a modular design with obstacle-free waiting areas and elevated level-access to articulated buses with a high platform. Stations will have access ramps for mobility-impaired passengers
and selected stations will have bicycle parking and storage facilities.
Bus Technology
Bus technology used are to a minor extent Euro II buses (compulsory since model-year 2001) and to a
majority Euro III units. For the phase IV no definition of standards has yet been made. Buses operating on
dedicated lanes are new articulated buses with a capacity of 160 persons with platform-level access including room for disabled persons. Feeder buses are new buses with a capacity of 70-90 passengers. For
CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) buses special incentives are given. The emissions of TransMilenio buses
are significantly lower compared to conventional buses operating in Bogotá currently, which are mostly
Euro 0 or older. Diesel used for trunk routes in TransMilenio contains significantly less sulphur than
normal diesel available in Colombia. All operators of trunk routes have their own filling stations and
regular controls are realized to ensure that emission specifications are met.
page 6
The technology used can be considered Environmentally Sound Technology (EST) and is significantly
better than the Business As Usual technology used currently for buses in Colombia.
Table A.4.3. shows the emissions of buses depending on the Euro-Category, while the graph shows the
emission reductions of particle matter and NOx which constitute the main pollution problem of diesel engines.
Table A.4.3: European Emission Limits for Heavy Duty Vehicles (g/kWh)5
Test cycle
Total HC
Non-Methane HC
NOx
Particulate Matter
Euro 0
13-mode
2.6
--15.8
no limit
Euro 1
13-mode
1.23
--9.0
0.4
Euro 2
13-mode
1.10
--7.0
0.15
0.66
--5.0
0.10
Euro 3
ESC6
0.78
1.6
5.0
0.16
ETC7
Euro 4
ESC
0.46
--3.5
0.02
ETC
0.55
1.1
3.5
0.03
Source: Regulations 88/77/EWG for Euro 0; 91/542/EWG for Euro I and II; 1999/96/EG for Euro III and IV
Figure A.4.3: Emissions of Particle Matter and NOx according to Euro Standard (Indexed)8
120
100
Index
80
60
40
20
0
Euro 0
Euro I
Euro II
Particle Matter
Euro III
Euro IV
NOx
Source: Table A.4.3.
Transit Management
The operational fleet centre manages bus dispatch, informs passengers, produces reports and maintains
records. All buses (trunk route buses as well as feeder buses) from Phase II onwards are equipped with a
Global Positioning System (GPS) linked to the operation centre. The novelty of the operational fleet centre is that an efficient management of bus fleets can take place optimizing load factors through coordinated scheduling of service. The transit system operates on concessions eliminating competition at bus-tobus level. Also passengers have real-time information about the next available bus and are informed of
potential transit problems.
Fare System
5
CO is not included as HDVs do not emit significant amounts of this pollutant
6
European Standard Cycle
7
European Transient Cycle
8
Euro 0 standard had no particulate limits
page 7
The system is based on pre-board ticketing using magnetic ticketing. This streamlines the boarding process and optimizes operations. The fare system integrates feeder and main lines. Fare collection is centralized and managed by a private company through a concession.
A.4.4. Brief explanation of how the anthropogenic emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse
gas (GHGs) by sources are to be reduced by the proposed CDM project activity, including why the
emission reductions would not occur in the absence of the proposed project activity, taking into account national and/or sectoral policies and circumstances:
The project replaces the conventional transport system through one which improves the resource efficiency of transporting passengers and reduces significantly the emissions per passenger transported.
Emission reductions are basically the result of systemic improvements plus a modal shift towards public
transport.
Emission reductions are caused by the following changes:
¾ Renewal of bus fleet: TransMilenio uses new buses with state-of-the-art technology while baseline
buses are on average 15 years and older. The new units have an improved fuel efficiency and lower
GHG and local emissions.
¾ Increased capacity of buses: TransMilenio uses larger units with a capacity of 160 passengers per bus
on trunk routes. Conventional buses are much smaller. Emissions per passenger-kilometre can thus
be reduced.
¾ Improved operating conditions for buses: Confined, segregated bus lanes together with bus-priority
traffic signals allow buses on the route to operate more efficiently and without interference from
other traffic thus reducing fuel consumption and GHG emissions. The conventional system is based
on competition for passengers between buses on the same route without having segregated lanes for
public transport.
¾ Centralized bus-fleet control: This allows for a coordinated scheduling of bus services that dynamically adjusts bus frequency with demand to result in fewer buses scheduled in off-peak hours. The
load factor of buses is thus optimized leading to lower emissions per passenger transported. The conventional system is based on a large number of very small bus companies without schedule coordination operating with low load factors at off-peak hours as individual owners continue operating as
long as variable costs are covered while a centrally controlled system optimizes total cost resulting in
an optimal load factor of buses all the time.
¾ Mode shift: The BRT system is more attractive to clients thus inducing a switch from high-emission
transport modes such as passenger cars or taxis to a low-emission transport mode. The increased attractiveness of the BRT system is based on having a faster, more reliable, safer and more convenient
transport system9. TransMilenio is clearly more comfortable, safer and reduces the total trip time
compared to the conventional bus system10.
¾ Introduction of fare pre-payment technology thus streamlining the boarding process and reducing
bus-idle GHG emissions.
Indirectly TransMilenio also reduces GHG emissions of other vehicles circulating in the influence region
of TransMilenio due to improved traffic conditions as a result of an elimination of interference from
buses competing for passengers with other vehicles. These (indirect) emission reductions are however not
claimed by the project.
9
A survey realized in Colombia indicated comfort, usefulness, reduced trip time and safety as the most important
motives for modal switch (Steer Davis Gleave, 2002, Encuesta de Preferencias Declaradas; Estudio sobre estimación de usuarios de transporte privado a ser desplazados por el sistema TransMilenio)
10
The total average trip duration in Bogotá could be reduced by 32% on routes operated by TransMilenio (source
D. Hidalgo (vice-director TransMilenio), TransMilenio: Un sistema de transporte masivo en buses de alta capacidad
y bajo costo para Bogota, Colombia, 2003)
page 8
TransMilenio reduces the existing fleet of buses through a scrappage program. Operators of trunk routes
will scrap on average 7.7 buses per articulated bus entering services. Through scrapping in total some
9’000 buses TransMilenio retires more than 1/3rd of all conventional buses and reduces the risk of a declining efficiency (load factor) in the remaining system. Its implementation is controlled by IDU (Instituto
de Desarrollo Urbano).
In absence of the project activity the current transport system including the TransMilenio phase I would
continue operating supplemented by certain policy changes already implemented (e.g. vehicle restriction
policies). The transport system would thus continue to be to a large extent inefficient and with high emissions per passenger transported. Also the policies enforced would not have the desired outcome as an effective alternative supply mean of transport would not exist thus not provoking a modal switch. The
above mentioned improvements could not be realized under this business as usual scenario. All relevant
national, regional and local transport policies have been included in the baseline.
The emission reductions would not occur in the absence of the project activity basically due to financial
and investment barriers as the costs of implementing phase II and following is significantly higher than
anticipated while the municipality has limited resources. Also political barriers exist towards implementing a 2nd phase due to other priorities of the new government. Last but not least the existing transport sector opposes in general an expansion of TransMilenio as they fear a loss of business. These barriers prevent the implementation of phase II and following in absence of the project. The barriers are discussed in
greater detail in Section B.3.
A.4.4.1. Estimated amount of emission reductions over the chosen crediting period:
Years
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total estimated reductions 1st crediting period
(tonnes of CO2eq)
Total number of crediting years (1st crediting period)
Annual average over the crediting period of
estimated reductions (tonnes of CO2eq)
Annual estimation of emission reductions
in tonnes of CO2eq
94,567
134,011
230,201
304,432
298,719
336,735
327,276
1,725,940
7
246,563
Emission reductions increase over time as the system is implemented in a gradual manner. The above table only includes the 1st crediting period.
A.4.5. Public funding of the project activity:
There is no Official Development Assistance in this project and the project will not receive any public
funding from Parties included in Annex I. Funding is from the national and the district government
through budgetary allocations and does not include any official development assistance and is not counted
towards the financial obligations of Annex 1 parties.
SECTION B. Application of a baseline methodology
B.1.
Title and reference of the approved baseline methodology applied to the project activity:
“Baseline Methodology for Bus Rapid Transit Projects” AM031
page 9
B.1.1. Justification of the choice of the methodology and why it is applicable to the project activity:
The methodology is applicable as the project activity reduces emissions through the construction and operation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system for urban road based transport.
Table B.1. relates the specific baseline methodology applicability conditions with the proposed project.
Table B.1. Applicability Conditions
Applicability condition
The project has a clear plan how to reduce existing public transport capacities either through scrapping, permit
restrictions, economic instruments or other means and
replacing them by a BRT system.
Local regulations do not constrain the establishment or
expansion of a BRT system.
Fuels used in the baseline and/or project case are unblended gasoline, diesel, LNG or CNG. Projects using
bio-fuels either in the baseline or project case are not
eligible to use this methodology.
Project situation
TransMilenio phase II onwards has a scrapping program to retire conventional public transport units with a
scrappage rate of on average 7.7 units per articulated
bus introduced by the BRT system.
TransMilenio Phase II and following comply with all
local and national regulations. No regulations exist constraining the expansion of TransMilenio.
The project fuel used is exclusively diesel. No bio-fuels
are used. The project case is the new bus system and
does not include other modes of transport. Taxis, passenger cars, other buses and other modes of transport
except TransMilenio do not form part of the project, are
outside the project boundary (see project boundary B4.
“Emissions sources not considered”) and are not monitored. Other modes of transport are only relevant for
calculating baseline emissions.
The baseline fuel used by more than 90%11 of public
transport (buses) is diesel. No bio-fuels are used. The
baseline fuel used by passenger cars and by taxis is to
over 90% unblended gasoline. According to the resolution 180687 dated June 17th 2003 Art. 5 gasoline shall
be blended in Bogotá with 10% ethanol as per latest
27th of September of 200512. As per January 1st 2006
this policy has not been implemented. According to EB
22 report Annex 3 “Clarifications on the consideration
of national and/or sectoral policies and circumstances in
baseline scenarios (version 02)” this is a national regulation that gives comparative advantages to less emission-intensive technologies (type E- policy). According
to Art. 7 of the above mentioned document “National
and/or sectoral policies or regulations under paragraph
6 (b) (type E- policies) that have been implemented
since the adoption by the COP of the CDM M&P (decision 17/CP.7, 11 November 2001) need not be taken
into account in developing a baseline scenario (i.e. the
baseline scenario could refer to a hypothetical situation
without the national and/or sectoral policies or regula-
11
Fuel types diesel/gasoline/CNG/LPG/LNG per category need only be listed separately if their respective share is
larger than 10% according to page 6 of the approved baseline methodology.
12
The law 693 dated 27.9.2001 to which regulation 180687 refers, calls for an oxygenation of fuels without making
the usage of ethanol compulsory for this purpose. World-wide oxygenation of gasoline was and is made primarily
with MTBE and not through the usage of ethanol. Law 693 also does not specify a certain blending level (the applicability condition of the methodology allows blending of up to 3%). Law 693 can thus be considered a general policy to promote the oxygenation of gasoline fuels without specifying neither the usage of bio-fuels nor a certain
blending level.
The BRT system as well as the baseline public transport
system and other public transport options are road-based.
The BRT system partially or fully replaces a traditional
public transport system in a given city. The methodology
cannot be used for BRT systems in areas where currently
no public transport is available.
The methodology is applicable if the analysis of possible
baseline scenario alternatives leads to the result that a
continuation of the current public transport system is the
scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic
emissions by sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) that
would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity (i.e. the baseline scenario)
page 10
tions being in place).” The regulation requiring blending with ethanol was issued after Nov 11th 2001 and the
implementation deadline was 27th September 2005, well
after 11.11.2001. In practice the policy has not been
implemented till 1.1.2006 (start of the crediting period
of the proposed project). The baseline fuel used by passenger cars and taxis can thus be considered as unblended gasoline i.e. the baseline fuel refers to a hypothetical situation without the national regulation being
in place as clarified by the EB 22 Annex 3.
Neither the project nor any baseline vehicle categories
thus use bio-fuels.
The current public transport system, other public transport options as well as the BRT system are exclusively
road-based.
The BRT system replaces gradually the existing public
transport system without replacing Phase I of
TransMilenio which is not part of this project. Public
transport is available in Bogotá in areas of operation/influence of TransMilenio phases II-IV.
Section B.3. of the PDD identifies the baseline as a
continuation of the current public transport system
All applicability conditions for using the methodology are thus fulfilled.
.
B.2.
Description of how the methodology is applied in the context of the project activity:
IDENTIFICATION OF THE BASELINE
Steps followed to identify the baseline are:
¾ Step 1: Identify all alternatives
¾ Step 2: Analyze options using the latest version of the “Tool for the demonstration and assessment of
additionality”
¾ Step 3: If step 2 results in more than one possible scenario, the baseline scenario is the one with the
lowest emissions.
Step 1: Identification of Alternatives
The baseline alternatives assessed are:
1. Establishment of a rail-based public transport system
2. Complete operational restructuring of the public transport system
3. Continuation of the current system including improvements based on national, regional or local policies. The continuation of the current system includes the continuation of TransMilenio phase I.
4. Implementing the project (TransMilenio phase II and following) without CDM
Step 2: Analysis of Alternatives
ALTERNATIVE 1: RAIL-BASED SYSTEM
page 11
The alternative is a rail based system for high passenger capacity. The national planning department of
Colombia compared in the year 2000 as potential alternatives a BRT with a metro based system for the
city of Bogotá13. The metro was considered as inferior to the BRT due to various reasons:
¾ The estimated infrastructure investment for the metro was estimated in more than double than for the
BRT system (4,007 million USD versus 1,970 million USD).
¾ The investment cost per kilometre was estimated at 107 million USD versus 5 million USD for the
BRT system. The cost per kilometre is thus more than 20-times higher for metro than for the BRT alternative.
¾ The cost benefit calculation including social and environmental benefits calculated at shadow prices
were double for the BRT versus the metro.
¾ The coverage of public transport in the area of Bogotá is far superior with a BRT system compared to
metro.
This alternative is not feasible for Bogotá due to its large capital investment, the relatively bad costbenefit relation and the low coverage. The main reason, as in most cities, is clearly the huge capital layout. The above cited official document clearly favours BRT over metro. The alternative metro was thus
rejected by Bogotá. Based on this TransMilenio Phase I in conjunction with a continuation of the existing
transport system was implemented. A rail based system is thus clearly not the baseline.
ALTERNATIVE 2: OVERALL ORGANIZATIONAL RE-STRUCTURING OF THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM
This scenario implies a completely integrated, centrally managed and re-structured transport system
which is a comprehensive and complete change of the current public transport system. Currently the
transport system is atomized in Bogotá with many individual bus owners competing between each other
for passengers. The proposed re-organization would include a centrally managed control of all units, dispatching them upon demand, a management and integration of tariffs, a re-definition of routes and significant structural changes from current operations relying on independent small bus-owners to transit
operators embedded in a centrally controlled operation centre of fleet.
The barrier to implementing such a system is clearly of organizational and management nature with the
considerable risk of non-functioning and the resistance to change of the existing transport sector. To manage such a change the entity in charge of transport management needs to be very strong and the involved
parties i.e. the existing transport companies, need to agree upon the change. The Secretaría de Tránsito y
Transporte (STT) in charge of public transport planning in Bogotá however has significant institutional
weaknesses14. Indications of this weakness are also that emitted decrees such as 114-2003 or 115-2003
which planned to change some structural elements of the existing transport fleet were not or only partially
implemented15. Also elements of decree 533-2002 which changed the tariff structure to include as an element the occupancy rate thus trying also to reduce the over-supply of buses was challenged successfully
in court16 by the transport companies thus returning to a tariff-system legally defined in 1998. No city in
Latin America with a comparable transport system to Bogotá has to the moment implemented successfully a comprehensive urban transport system integrating formal and informal individual bus owners17.
13
República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Documento Conpes 3093, Bogotá 15.11.2000
14
See e.g. analysis made in Jorge Acevedo, Transporte urbano en Bogotá: bases para una política integral, Foro
Económico, Regional y Urbano, No. 3, 1996; Ardila Arturo, Tránsito y transporte en la Bogotá que queremos, revista Foro, Separata Especial, 9/1998; JICA, Estudio del Plan Maestro del Transporte Urbano de Santa fe de Bogotá
en la República de Colombia, informe final, IDU, 1996
15
See Arturo Ardila, La olla de presión del transporte público en Bogotá, revista de ingeniería universidad de los
andes, 5.2005
16
Tribunal Administrativo de Cundinamarca, sección primera, subsección A, expediente No. 25000-23-24-0002003-00224-01, Bogotá, 26.5.2005
17
Plans for such an integration haven been realized e.g. by Santiago de Chile but have not yet been implemented.
page 12
The chance of success in re-organizing atomized public transport sectors such as the one in Bogotá was
and is considered as very small as resistance to change from the existing often partially informal transport
sector is high, the involved regulatory authorities are weak and free-riders (the informal sector) would
undermine the approach of the whole system.
The barriers to implementing this alternative are thus of organizational nature, lack of know-how on how
to implement the change, high resistance to change from current bus operators, especially informal ones
and a complete lack of successful cases in comparable surroundings. For Bogotá this alternative was thus
considered as non-feasible basically due to the organizational challenge involved as well as the low success potential and the high risk of such an alternative. It is thus considered as a non-feasible alternative
for the future. The re-organization alternative is thus clearly not the baseline.
ALTERNATIVE 3: CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT TRANSPORT SYSTEM (INCLUDES
TRANSMILENIO PHASE I)
A continuation of the current transport system complies with all applicable legal and regulatory requirements. The implementation of Phases II to IV of TransMilenio is not conditioned by Colombian, regional
or local law. Phase II is not a compulsory implementation following Phase I as financial means have to be
secured independently for each phase on part of the District.
A continuation of the current system has various advantages compared to all other options:
¾ No political resistance from the existing transport sector as well as from other political pressure
groups favouring public investment in other sectors such as education, health or security or opposing
increased public spending.
¾ No large-scale public investment requiring additional income/tax sources.
¾ Lowest risk of all options.
¾ The political benefit of a new transport system has already been reaped with phase I of TransMilenio
which is part of this BAU scenario. Expanding the system attracts no additional political gains while
financial resources cannot be used for other more attractive and novel options outside the transport
sector.
A continuation of the current transport system is the most attractive alternative. Public authorities must
not engage in large investments, nor do they embark upon risky structural changes to transport nor do
they have to confront resistance to change from the transport sector. The continuation of the current situation is thus clearly a realistic and attractive alternative.
ALTERNATIVE 4: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROJECT WITHOUT CDM
The alternative of the project without CDM is not considered as viable and thus not BAU due basically to
three important barriers which have been identified for the second and further phases of TransMilenio:
¾ Investment barrier: Costs per kilometre are significantly higher than anticipated and significantly
higher than in Phase I. The District of Bogotá must thus bear much higher investments for phase II
and following than originally anticipated. As in any investment project this results in a barrier to continue investing if no alternative income sources can be identified. While the first Phase of
TransMilenio was implemented successfully (operations started end of December 2000) severe financial difficulties have resulted in a risk of non-continuation. Financial consolidation and the goahead for phase II were only achieved after accruing sales of GHG offsets as additional funding
sources.
¾ Political barrier: The interest of the new administration in investing in new phases is limited as other
public investment projects are higher on the current political agenda.
¾ Resistance of the existing transport sector. This resistance has grown relative to phase I as formerly
only a limited part of the city was affected while phases II to V encompass a large part of the city.
Bus owners thus fear to loose income and especially the informal transport sector for many reasons
has resistance to change to a formal transport system.
page 13
The barriers presented here are discussed in major detail in section B.3. That section demonstrates that in
absence of the CDM the project would not happen. The project is thus not BAU and not the baseline.
The most probable alternative in the future in absence of the project is thus a continuation of the current
road-based transport system. This is thus the baseline for this project.
KEY STEPS TO DETERMINE THE BASELINE
The baseline methodology involves two main steps:
1. Determination of emissions per passenger transported per vehicle category. This is calculated exante, including the usage of a fixed technology change factor. The baseline emission factor is
adapted to potential changes in trip distance and type of fuel used by passenger cars if the surveys
indicate that changes in trip distance or type of fuel used would lead to lower baseline emission
factors.
2. Baseline emissions: These are calculated ex-post based on the passengers transported by the project and their modal split. Core baseline parameters used for calculating the baseline emission
factors are reviewed through an annual survey, with changes only being applied if the baseline
emissions factors would be lower than original factor. Passengers transported by the project are
recorded by TransMilenio.
Details of the approach as well as all calculations can be found in section E.
page 14
Graph B.2. Determination of Baseline Emissions
1. Determine Vehicle Categories
2. Emissions per Kilometer
3. Emissions per Passenger
4. Technology Improvement Factor
5. Change of Baseline Parameters
during Project
6. Policy Effects
6. Baseline Emissions
Key data, variables and parameters are listed in Annex 3.
B.3.
Description of how the anthropogenic emissions of GHG by sources are reduced below
those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity:
The additionality of the project is determined using the “Tool for the demonstration and assessment of
additionality (version 2)” of 28.11.2005.
STEP 0. PRELIMINARY SCREENING BASED ON THE STARTING DATE OF THE PROJECT
ACTIVITY
The project participants wish to have the crediting period starting prior to the registration of their project
activity.
1. To be applicable for an early starting date the project must provide evidence that the starting date is
between 1.1.2000 and 18.11.2004 (the date of the registration of a first CDM project activity): Construction for the first lane of Phase II commenced March 2002 (lane “Americas”). The first lane was
operational December 2003 (source: IDU). Both dates are between 1.1.2000 and 18.11.2004.
2. The extended deadline for early starting date decided upon at COP/MOP 1 applies to the proposed
project as it submitted a new baseline methodology (NM0105 as well as the revised methodology
NM0105rev.) before December 31st 2005.
page 15
3. The project must provide evidence that the incentive from the CDM was seriously considered in the
decision to proceed with the project activity: The District of Bogotá signed a contract with the CAF in
2001 including the TransMilenio CDM project18. Prior to this the potentials of CDM were discussed
and considered as viable, thus leading to the contract signature with the CAF to develop the project as
a CDM one. Additional funds from CDM were considered a critical element to continue with Phase II
of TransMilenio.
The project thus complies with all conditions to apply for a crediting period starting prior to the registration of the project activity. The starting date of the crediting period is 1.1.2006.
STEP 1. IDENTIFICATION OF ALTERNATIVES TO THE PROJECT ACTIVITY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT LAWS AND REGULATIONS
Potential alternatives are such that achieve in comparable circumstances similar mobility targets of involved actors.
Sub-step 1a: Define alternatives to the project activity
The potential alternatives are:
1. Establishment of a rail-based public transport system
2. Complete operational restructuring of the public transport system
3. Continuation of the current system including improvements based on national, regional or local policies. The continuation of the current system includes the continuation of TransMilenio phase I.
4. Implementing the project (TransMilenio phase II and following) without CDM
Alternative 1 of a rail-based public transport system is not a viable alternative and thus not further considered due to following facts19:
¾ The estimated infrastructure investment for the metro was estimated in more than double than for the
BRT system (4,007 million USD versus 1,970 million USD). The metro system would however
have a coverage of only 8% of the city (10% of trips) while the BRT system would have a coverage
of 85% (80% of trips)20. Per trip coverage metro would thus be around 16 times more expensive than
the BRT system.
¾ The investment cost per kilometre was estimated at 107 million USD for metro versus 5 million USD
for the BRT system. The cost per kilometre is thus more than 20-times higher for metro than for the
BRT alternative.
¾ The cost benefit calculation including social and environmental benefits calculated at shadow prices
were double for the BRT versus the metro.
Based on these calculations the government of Colombia concluded that metro was financially non-viable
and that a BRT system is far more attractive than metro.
Alternative 2 of a complete restructuring of the public transport system implies a completely integrated,
centrally managed and re-structured transport system which is a comprehensive and complete change of
the current public transport system. Currently the transport system is atomized in Bogotá with many individual bus owners competing between each other for passengers. The proposed re-organization would
include a centrally managed control of all units, dispatching them upon demand, a management and integration of tariffs, a re-definition of routes and significant structural changes from current operations relying on independent small bus-owners to transit operators embedded in a centrally controlled operation
centre of fleet. The barrier to implementing such a system is clearly of organizational and management
18
See CO_EX dated 14.11.2001 Annex C
19
República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Documento Conpes 3093, Bogotá 15.11.2000
20
The first figure corresponds to spatial coverage, the 2nd to trip coverage. Former is different to latter due to different concentration of population per square meter depending on location.
page 16
nature with the considerable risk of non-functioning and the resistance to change of the existing transport
sector. To manage such a change the entity in charge of transport management needs to be very strong
and the involved parties i.e. the existing transport companies, need to agree upon the change. The Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte (STT) in charge of public transport planning in Bogotá however has significant institutional weaknesses21. Indications of this weakness are also that emitted decrees such as 1142003 or 115-2003 which planned to change some structural elements of the existing transport fleet were
not or only partially implemented22. Also elements of decree 533-2002 which changed the tariff structure
to include as an element the occupancy rate thus trying also to reduce the over-supply of buses was challenged successfully in court23 by the transport companies thus returning to a tariff-system legally defined
in 1998. No city in Latin America with a comparable transport system to Bogotá has to the moment implemented successfully a comprehensive urban transport system integrating formal and informal individual bus owners24. The chance of success in re-organizing atomized public transport sectors such as the
one in Bogotá was and is considered as very small as resistance to change from the existing often partially
informal transport sector is high, the involved regulatory authorities are weak and free-riders (the informal sector) would undermine the approach of the whole system. The barriers to implementing this alternative are thus of organizational nature, lack of know-how on how to implement the change, high resistance to change from current bus operators, especially informal ones and a complete lack of successful
cases in comparable surroundings. For Bogotá this alternative was thus considered as non-feasible basically due to the organizational challenge involved as well as the low success potential and the high risk of
such an alternative. The re-organization alternative is thus clearly not the baseline.
The only viable potential alternatives analyzed thus in the further steps are a continuation of the current
public transport system or the project without CDM.
Sub-step 1b. Enforcement of applicable laws and regulations
All alternatives proposed comply with all applicable legal and regulatory requirements. Continuation of
the current transport mode complies with legal requirements. The implementation of Phases II to IV of
TransMilenio is not conditioned by Colombian, regional or local law. Phase II is not a compulsory implementation following Phase I as financial means have to be secured independently for each phase on
part of the District.
The potential alternatives 1 and 2 have been analyzed and have been excluded as being non-viable in
chapter B.2. (identification of the baseline). They would however also comply with legal and regulatory
requirements.
STEP 2: INVESTMENT ANALYSIS
The investment analysis is not realized. Infrastructure in the case of TransMilenio is 100% public financed and has no direct returns. The public financed component is not repaid. Tariffs in TransMilenio
cover only operational costs excluding infrastructure costs. The direct financial return of the project is
thus 0 (no direct income).
21
See e.g. analysis made in Jorge Acevedo, Transporte urbano en Bogotá: bases para una política integral, Foro
Económico, Regional y Urbano, No. 3, 1996; Ardila Arturo, Tránsito y transporte en la Bogotá que queremos, revista Foro, Separata Especial, 9/1998; JICA, Estudio del Plan Maestro del Transporte Urbano de Santa fe de Bogotá
en la República de Colombia, informe final, IDU, 1996
22
See Arturo Ardila, La olla de presión del transporte público en Bogotá, revista de ingeniería universidad de los
andes, 5.2005
23
Tribunal Administrativo de Cundinamarca, sección primera, subsección A, expediente No. 25000-23-24-0002003-00224-01, Bogotá, 26.5.2005
24
Plans for such an integration haven been realized e.g. by Santiago de Chile but have not yet been implemented.
page 17
STEP 3: BARRIER ANALYSIS
Sub-step 3a. Identify barriers that would prevent the implementation of type of the proposed project activity
Two important barriers exist for the implementation of the second and further phases of TransMilenio:
¾ Investment barrier: Costs per kilometre are significantly higher than anticipated and significantly
higher than in Phase I. The District of Bogotá must bear much higher investments for phase II and following than originally anticipated. The District of Bogotá is forced to identify alternative finance
sources to continue with phase II as resources are limited from the surtax on gasoline established for
this purpose. The main barrier is thus the much higher than anticipated investment which limits the
ability and reduces the willingness of the administration to further invest in TransMilenio.
¾ Resistance of the existing transport sector. This resistance has grown relative to phase I as formerly
only a limited part of the city was affected while phases II to V encompass a large part of the city. Bus
owners thus fear to loose income and especially the informal transport sector has resistance to change
to a formal transport system for a variety of reasons.
Investment Barrier
The District does not receive any income from the investment in infrastructure of TransMilenio. No direct
returns on capital are received. The investment in TransMilenio thus competes in a political agenda with a
wide array of other investment opportunities, which also have economic, social and environmental benefits including inter alia investment in education and schooling, investment in public health or a reduction
of public debt and/or public spending with the possibility to reduce taxes. Without significant public investment the private sector would not be willing to invest in new transport schemes due to lack of profitability and a too high risk.
The most important barrier is the financial or investment barrier which is detailed in continuation. The
financial barrier is basically for the District of Bogotá which needs to cover 36% of the infrastructure
costs. The resources from the national government cover 64% of total investment costs and are assured
through a national decree25. The District which is the project owner must assure the remaining 36%.
The barrier which the District confronts for phase II and following of TransMilenio is the following:
• Stagnating or reduced income from the fuel surcharge as well as other sources to finance TransMilenio
phase II
• Sharply increased investment cost for phase II. The investment cost for phase II is far higher than anticipated
The combination of an eroding income base with increased costs is a lack of resources to invest further in
TransMilenio. The significant deficit is a main barrier for implementing phase II. The District is thus dependent on alternative income sources to cover at least a portion of this deficit and thus be able to go
ahead with the project.
Income Sources Phase II
The District relies on 50% of a fuel surcharge levied specially for this purpose to finance its share of the
total public investment. The surtax on fuel consumption is levied at the pump on the consumption of
gasoline and diesel fuel in the district. In 1996 the rate was 13% and by 1998 it went to 20%. Originally
25
The share 36% District and 64% National Government is based on an agreement between the District and the
National government of financial obligations towards TransMilenio 2004 to 2011 showing a total sum of 1,837,383
million Pesos (pesos of 2003) with 1,183,678 million (64%) from the national government and 653,705 million
(36%) from the District. This corresponds basically to the distribution established originally for all phases in the
official planning document Conpes 3093 where a share of the National Government of 66% was projected (República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Conpes 3093, 15.11.2000, Table 3)
page 18
each municipality could set its rate. After many drivers in Bogotá began to fuel in adjacent municipalities
with significantly lower rates, Congress stepped in and established rates that can vary only between 18%
and 20%26. Revenues from the fuel surtax are thus limited and cannot be increased significantly as Bogotá
is already at the maximum rate27. An important additional funding source of the capital District for phase
I of TransMilenio were also significant non-recurrent capital receipts. The largest single influx was
thereby the capital reduction of the city Power Company, EEB, which facilitated large investments in
TransMilenio phase I in 1999 and 200028. This source of revenue has however dried up and is not available anymore for phase II. Sources of revenue which are destined for investment in TransMilenio are thus
limited and potentially lower for phase II and following than for phase I.
Investment Cost Phase II
The investment cost of phase I was much higher than anticipated. Table B.3.1. compares the projected
investment with the actual cost of Phase I in USD of 2000.
Table B.3.1. Comparison Projected and Actual Investment Phase I TransMilenio (million USD 2000)
Trunk road
Length (km)
Projected cost
Actual cost
Surplus cost
Calle 80
10
42.6
97.8
55.2
Caracas
21
69.0
111.4
42.4
Autopista Norte
10
42.3
72.8
30.5
Total average cost per kilometer
3.75
6.68
2.93
Sources:
• Projected cost and lenght: República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Conpes 3093
• Actual cost: Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano; USD 2003 are converted to USD 2000 using OECD deflator; based
on real kilometres built
• Total cost per km is adjusted for actual cost to the actual km constructed: 42.2 km (planned: 41.0 km)
The cost overrun per kilometre is with nearly 80% very significant. Based on these higher costs new projections of real construction costs for phase II were realized. The major reasons for the cost increase experienced include:
• Significant changes in the construction method of trunk routes
• Design and construction changes in stations and related components, e.g., traffic signalling or bike deposit stations
• A higher investment in alternative routes during the construction phase
• Significantly higher than expected costs for land acquisition due to higher than expected prices and a
larger quantity of land being bought as trunk routes were only allowed to a limited degree to replace existing road space
• Intersections between trunk routes not foreseen originally
• An increase in the price of raw material, basically steel used for stations
• Increased environmental requirements
• Trunk routes constructed in Phase II include 5-year maintenance contracts not included formerly29
Based on the experience of Phase I the construction designs of trunk routes, stations and complimentary
infrastructure changed significantly leading to increased costs. The significant increase of cost is thus due
to expanded and unforeseen requirements concerning construction of trunk routes and related elements as
well as to the lack of experience with this type of construction. With the experience of phase I costs of
Phase II and subsequent were thus adjusted based on much more reliable data and experience. Table
26
See World Bank, report 24941-CO, project appraisal document on a proposed loan in the amount of USD 100
million to the capital district of Bogotá, page 105, 14.2.2003; Since the decision on Phase II the maximum level has
been increased to 25%. This improves the financial income situation for Phase III (construction start 2007)
27
The fuel surtax is dependent on the fuel usage in the city and thus also dependent on macroeconomic parameters.
28
Phase I was constructed between 1998 and 2000 entering into operations in the year 2000 (source: IDU)
29
See Plan Marco Sistema TransMilenio, IDU and TransMilenio, 2003
page 19
B.3.2. compares the originally planned with the new projected cost of phase II. Table B.3.2. compares
directly the cost per kilometre as distances were also changed between the two planning stages.
Table B.3.2. Comparison of Original and New Projected Cost Phase II (million USD 2000)
Trunk road
Originally projected cost
New projected cost per
Surplus cost per km
per km
km
Américas
5.7
10.1
4.4
NQS
3.8
14.1
10.3
Suba
3.9
13.0
9.1
Average
4.31
12.61
8.3
Sources:
• Originally projected cost: República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Conpes 3093
• Actual cost: Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano; USD 2003 are converted to USD 2000 using OECD deflator; based
on new projected kilometres; excluding finance cost as this was not included in the original planning
• Note: the average is based on the total cost divided by the total number of kilometres
Table B.3.3. compares the originally projected cost based on the distances definitely included in the new
planning for phase II with the new projected cost for phase II
Table B.3.3. Comparison of Original and New Projected Total Cost Phase II (million USD 2000)
Originally projected cost Phase II
New projected cost Phase II
Cost surplus Phase II
186
532
346
Sources:
• Originally projected cost: República de Colombia, Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Conpes 3093;
adapted to the new projected trunk routes and distances for phase II (Américas, NQS and Suba)
• Actual cost: Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano; USD 2003 are converted to USD 2000 using OECD deflator; excluding finance cost as this was not included in the original planning
Deficit Phase II
Table B.3.4. shows the additional cost or deficit for the District based on a fixed distribution of 36% of
costs borne by the District.
Table B.3.4. Additional Non-Projected Costs Phase II for the District of Bogotá (million USD of 2000)
Total additional cost
Cost Participation District
Additional cost district
346
36%
125
Bogotá District thus has a significant financial deficit for TransMilenio Phase II due to net additional and
non-projected costs of 125 Million USD for phase II. These additional funds are not available and new
income sources are politically difficult to tap or legal restrictions exist. The continuation and financial
viability of the project is thus questionable if no additional revenue sources can be tapped. In the face of
these financial problems the new phases were not implemented as originally planned and additional revenue sources were sought30. TransMilenio phase II and following were thus stopped till new and additional
financial resources could be secured. 2002 an agreement could be signed with the CAF in which
TransMilenio opts for the CDM as an additional finance source. The additional income through the sale
of GHG emission reductions in the global market alleviates the financial deficit of Phase II in a significant manner and thus allows the District to go ahead with this Phase.
The interest of the administration in investing in new phases is also limited as other public investment
projects, especially social ones are prioritized by the new administration. Expanding an existing system is
difficult to sell and not that attractive from a media point of view as embarking on new projects. The political barrier increased additionally as higher than projected investment costs mean that scarce funds
would have to be quit from other departments provoking resistance from these sectors.
30
Originally implementation of phase II should have started 2001
page 20
Resistance from the Existing Transport Sector
Phase I of TransMilenio had a coverage of passenger demand of around 10% (see map 1) i.e. 10% of all
trips are realized through TransMilenio while the remaining 90% of trips are realized through the conventional transport system31.
Map 1: Coverage of TransMilenio in Phase I
Source: TransMilenio
Coverage of TransMilenio phase II to IV is in contrast more than 70% (see map 2)32. Phase II alone
would already reach a coverage of nearly 40%. Alone in Phase II 55 of 67 transport companies operating
in Bogotá would be affected33. With the project the remaining coverage of the existing transport sector
would thus shrink to only 30%, a very limited market.
31
Alcaldia Mayor de Bogotá, Secretaría de Tránsito y Transporte; Asistencia Técnica a la Secretaría de Tránsito y
de Transporte de Bogotá para la Reorganización del Sistema de Transporte Público Colectivo, contrato realizado
por Logitrans por encargo del PNUD, 2003, page 86
32
33
page 21
Map 2: Expected Coverage of TransMilenio in 2016
Source: TransMilenio
Phase I was thus not considered a serious competition by the existing transport sector basically due to:
• Limited coverage of 10%
• Limited absolute competition as the city at the same time grows and thus in absolute numbers the influence of TransMilenio phase I is even less than 10%.
• The traditional transport system expected that the new system would not or only partially work. An indicator of this perception is that no public transport company participated as operators of TransMilenio
phase I. Companies who took the risk and participated as operators of TransMilenio phase I had previously not been active in urban public transport in Bogotá.
With phase II and following the traditional transport sector however confronted a serious problem. If they
would not integrate into TransMilenio they would loose their economic base. The integration was however for a certain amount of companies not feasible due to organizational, legal or economic conditions
and for other companies, especially informal companies with a track record of evading taxes, financially
not attractive. The traditional transport sector thus had significantly higher resistance against an expansion of TransMilenio compared to TransMilenio Phase I.
The barrier analysis clearly shows that the additional and non-anticipated investment cost together with
an increasing resistance to an expansion of TransMilenio from existing transport companies makes the
alternative of implementing the project without CDM non-feasible. The project is thus not the baseline.
Sub-step 3 b. Show that the identified barriers would not prevent the implementation of at least one
of the alternatives (except the proposed project activity)
The alternative of a rail-based system has even higher financial barriers than the proposed project. For a
detailed discussion of its barriers see sub-step 1.A. This alternative is clearly non-feasible and the identified barriers would prevent its implementation. This alternative is thus eliminated from consideration.
The alternative of a complete re-organization faces primarily organizational barriers and resistance of the
existing transport sector to change. For a detailed discussion of this alternative see sub-step 1.A. The
identified barriers would thus also prevent the implementation of this alternative. This alternative is thus
eliminated from consideration.
page 22
The third alternative identified is a continuation of the current transport system. A continuation of the current system faces no investment barrier. The existing public transport companies do not offer any resistance to a continuation of the current system – they favour this alternative as they can continue their current business practice. A continuation of the current public transport system of Bogotá is thus a viable
alternative. The identified barriers would not prevent the continuation of the current transport system.
STEP 4. COMMON PRACTICE ANALYSIS
Sub-step 4a. Analyze other activities similar to the proposed project activity
There is no precise definition of what constitutes a BRT system. Features of complete BRT systems such
as TransMilenio include exclusive right-of-way lanes, rapid boarding and alighting, free transfers between lines, pre-board fare collection and fare verification, enclosed stations, clear route maps, real-time
information displays, automatic vehicle location technology to manage vehicle movements, modal integration at stations, effective reform of the existing institutional structures for public transit, clean vehicle
technologies and excellence in marketing and customer service34.
In Latin America comparable BRT projects have only been realized in few cities including basically35:
¾ Curitiba (1974), and partially Sao Paulo (1975), Goiania (1976) and Porto Alegre (1977) in Brazil
¾ Quito, Ecuador in 1996
¾ Bogotá, Colombia, phase I of TransMilenio
Curitiba
The Curitiba project is more than 3 decades old. Although widely promoted it was not replicated and can
thus not be considered as BAU. The other 3 cities mentioned in Brazil have only implemented the BRT
system partially. Brazil also has a GNI which is nearly 80% higher than that of Colombia, thus stressing
the concept of “comparable access to finance”36.
Quito
Quito has a similar project called “Trolebus” implemented a decade ago. However this project had a foreign subsidy worth over 70% of the total investment financed through concessional credits by the Government of Spain with an ODA participation37. “The system was constructed in two phases thanks to receiving governmental finance from Spain...The finance was concessionary and beneficial for the country
(50% ODA and 50% in OECD conditions)38”
Bogotá
In Bogotá the first phase of TransMilenio was financed by the national government together with the Bogotá district. However since implementation of this first phase various important factors have changed
making the investment barrier significantly higher. The cost increase is significant compared to the cost
originally planned. This was shown in the former chapter.
Overall Assessment
34
GTZ, Bus Rapid Transit, version 2.0, 2005
35
GTZ, Bus Rapid Transit, version. 2.0, 2005; other sources do not include Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre (Darío Hidalgo, Comparación de Alternativas de Transporte Público Masivo – Una Aproximación Conceptual, in Revista de
Ingeniería 21, 5-2005)
36
GNI per capita of Brazil in the year 2000 : 3'650 USD ; in Colombia : 2'050 ; source : World Bank economic indicators
37
Source: http://www.trolebus.gov.ec/secciones/historia.html
38
Literal translation from the official website of Trolebus, Quito:
http://www.trolebus.gov.ec/secciones/historia.htmln
page 23
Considering the large number of cities in Latin America 3-639 examples of BRTs is very little. Of these
the only really comparable case is TransMilenio Phase I in Bogotá as Brazil has nearly the double of GDP
per capita compared to Colombia and is thus in a different financial situation and the Quito system was
largely financed through ODA and a concessional credit. The continuation of TransMilenio is thus surely
not common practice. The fact that TransMilenio is widely used as example40 and visited by many cities
worldwide also shows the innovative nature of the project.
Various cities in South America as well as other regions are now in the process of planning BRT projects
comparable to the TransMilenio one. Similar projects under planning but not yet operational as of
1.1.2006 are, e.g., in Colombia in Cali, Cartagena, Pereira or Barranquilla or BRT projects are under
planning in Lima (Perú), Guayaquil (Ecuador), Insurgentes in Mexico City (Mexico) or Santiago de Chile
(Chile). Noteworthy is that all these projects are finding severe financial constraints and all are considering CDM finance as an important aspect. All above mentioned cities are under negotiation or have closed
contracts for carbon finance41. This indicates clearly that the investment barrier is a major issue in all
these projects and that CDM can play an important role in surpassing this barrier thus promoting widely
BRT projects with numerous positive sustainability implications beyond climate change.
The survey of similar project activities in other countries shows clearly that BRT projects are singular and
not common practice. Although BRT projects have been planned in various countries after the success of
Curitiba these plans have not resulted in concrete implementations with exception of Quito which had
access to ODA sources and of the first phase of TransMilenio in Bogotá. Since Phase I of TransMilenio
however the financial picture changed significantly thus creating barriers for the implementation of Phase
II and following. Other similar projects underway include CDM finance as an important source of additional finance. It can thus be concluded that similar activities without ODA or CDM finance are not
common practice and are only carried out on a very exceptional base.
Sub-step 4b. Discuss any similar options that are occurring
As mentioned in the former subchapter the similar projects occurring or under planning without CDM
finance are singular and not common practice. Even these singular cases have significant differences
compared to the project proposed including:
¾ Access to ODA finance (case of Quito)
¾ Significantly lower investment barriers (in the case of Bogotá TransMilenio phase I) than the current
barrier. See arguments and differences listed in Step 3a.
The steps realized above clearly show that implementing the project is not the baseline and is not a viable
alternative under BAU.
STEP 5. IMPACT OF CDM REGISTRATION
The impact of a CDM registration is on all identified barriers:
¾ The financial barrier is alleviated through the financial transfers resulting from the sale of CERs.
39
3 considering Quito, Bogotá and Curitiba; 6 including the other 3 Brazilian cities
40
E.g. in GTZ, Bus Rapid Transit, version 2.0, 2005 or in IEA, Bus Systems for the Future, 2002
41
See Guayaquil: http://www.cordelim.net/cordelim.php?c=456 Colombian projects:
http://www.cecodes.org.co/cambio_climatico/ocmcc.htm#7 (with other cities negotiations for CDM are being realized basically on behalf of CAF and the World Bank), Insurgentes see PPD presented with the proposed NM0158;
Santiago de Chile: PDD Transsantiago published on the website of DNV:
http://www.dnv.com/certification/climatechange/Projects/ProjectList.asp?whichpage=33&pagesize=10&Country=
&DontCreate=True ; The BRT project in Lima has prepared the PIN financed through the World Bank; see National Strategy Study for the CDM Peru, 2003
page 24
¾ The political risk barrier which was identified as part of the financial barrier is alleviated through the
signature of an international contract to sell CERs.
¾ The resistance of existing transport companies can be alleviated partially through offering alternative
employment opportunities. The financial resources of a sale of CERs can assist in this task.
Impact of CDM Registration on the Investment Barrier
As important barrier the additional investment cost was identified. The major impact of the approval and
registration of the project as a CDM activity is an alleviation of this financial barrier. TransMilenio has
for this purpose realized an agreement with CAF. CAF covers through this agreement all upfront and
transaction costs. The income obtained through the sale of CERs depends basically on the price at which
the reductions can be sold, the status of the project and the delivery schedule and quantities. The level of
the price depends also on many international market factors including the level of GHG emissions of Annex I countries under BAU, the sales strategy of Russia considering its large amount of hot air and the
extent to which Annex I countries will rely on domestic emission reductions versus trading42.
At the time of negotiation of the CDM contract in early 2001 the price expectation used by the project
was based upon the recently completed and thus “state-of-the-art” “National Strategy Study for the Implementation of the CDM in Colombia” (NSS program of the World Bank, 8/2000)43. Prices expected
with entry into force of Kioto were at this time between 7 and 44 USD/tCO244. The range used for estimates in the study were 19 USD per ton in the upper range, 10 USD as average price and 3 USD for the
weak price scenario. Price scenarios since then have tended to shift upwards. A recent World Bank study
of potential CER prices estimated the average price at 11 USD/tCO2 +/- 50% with a low price scenario of
5 and a high price scenario of 15 USD.45 Pointcarbon reports February 2006 prices between 6 and 24
USD per tCO246. The price range estimated in the NSS is thus more on the low side compared to current
price expectations. Nevertheless the price range values published in NSS are used to demonstrate the
CDM impact as they represent the information available to the project at the time of taking a decision to
go forward with the project or not.
Table B.3.5.: Estimate of Income through the Sale of CERs (low, medium, high price scenario)47
USD 3/tCO2eq
USD 10/tCO2eq
USD 19/tCO2eq
1,726,000
1,726,000
1,726,000
Projected Total CERs
first crediting period
5,200,000
17,300,000
32,800,000
Expected Income in USD
first crediting period
Source: Data generated by the author
The expected additional income from the sale of CERs is between 5 and 33 million USD for the first
crediting period only. Assuming a renewal of crediting periods plus the expected system expansion expected total income with constant USD is on average (with a price of 10 USD/tCO2eq) around 80 million
42
See e.g. CERT (Carbon Emission Reduction Trade) metamodel developed for the World Bank by grütter consulting
43
For download see:
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTCC/0,,contentMDK:20484413~p
agePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:407864,00.html
44
Page 49
45
Estimating the Market Potential for the CDM: Review of Models and Lessons Learned, PCF plus, June 2004
46
Pointcarbon, CDM and JI Monitor 7.2.2006; € values converted to USD based on the Interbank exchange rate
1.2.2006
47
Rounded reduction tons; Prices based on the NSS Colombia, 2000
page 25
USD reaching up to 170 million USD48. Bogotá District has a financial gap of 125 MUSD. In relation to
this gap the projected income from the sale of CERs is very significant and can cover a substantial part of
the gap or deficit. The financial barrier can thus be alleviated in a significant manner through the sale of
CERs.
Impact of the CDM Registration on Political Resistance
The political resistance to implementing Phase II and following can be reduced considerably due to following reasons:
• The additional CDM finance available can contribute significantly to alleviate the projected deficit (see
above) and resolves to a large part the politically difficult financial hurdle for TransMilenio phase II
and following. Additional income sources are thus secured.
• The income from the sale of CERs will only occur in case of implementing and operating the new
phases such as planned. This leads to a significant pressure also on newly entering public administrations to continue the efforts as otherwise resources would be lost. The contract for sales of CERs thus
reduces the discontinuation risk of future phases of TransMilenio.
• The national and international prestige of TransMilenio is considerably increased. The GHG offsets are
internationally recognized and externally verified. This increases not only the credibility of the project
but also highlights the impact of the policies followed and thus improves the prestige and the image of
involved institutions. This international recognition is highly appreciated, especially as Bogotá tries to
improve the image of its city with TransMilenio.
• The GHG reductions are calculated and verified based on an approved methodology by the UNFCCC.
Bogotá can thus claim to improve the global as well as the local environment. These claims are sustained through the registration as a CDM project thus increasing the political attractiveness of implementing further phases.
Impact of the CDM Registration on Resistance from the Existing Transport Sector
The resistance of the existing transport sector can be reduced by using the additional funds available for
either re-training persons involved in existing transport entities and/or by trying to incorporate more existing transport enterprises as TransMilenio operators even if this results in marginally higher prices.
TransMilenio plans to integrate the existing transport companies in Phase II to a higher degree by giving
them certain advantages in the bidding process. The additional costs provoked from this change are feasible also due to the additional expected income from the sale of CERs.
B.4.
Description of how the definition of the project boundary related to the baseline methodology selected is applied to the project activity:
The project boundary includes all anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs under the control of project participants.
The project boundary is defined by the passenger trips completed on the BRT project that is part of the
public and private road-based passenger transport sector of Bogotá49. The physical delineation is determined by the outreach of TransMilenio phase II-IV.
TransMilenio operates trunk routes and feeder routes. Table B.4.1. relates the trunk routes of
TransMilenio Phase I to IV. Map B.4.1. gives an overview of the total system as projected in the different
phases, while Map B.4.1.2. shows the extensions of the feeder routes organized in sectors of the city.
Table B.4.1. Trunk Routes TransMilenio (Phase I-IV)
48
Based on price of 19 USD/tCO2eq Calculations for crediting periods 2 and 3 based on ERs of 500’000 tCO2eq per
annum.
49
Freight transport is not included. Air, ship and rail transport is not included.
Phase
Phase I
Phase I
Phase I
Phase II
Phase II
Phase II
Phase III
Phase III
Phase III
Phase IV
Phase IV
Phase IV
Phase IV
Total phases I-IV
page 26
Trunk route
Calle 80
Caracas
Autonorte
Americas
NQS
Suba
Calle 26
Carreras 10 and 7
Av. Boyaca
Avenida 68
Calle 13
Av. Ciudad de Cali
Av. 1 de Mayo
Distance
10.1 km
21.8 km
10.3 km
13.0 km
19.3 km
10.0 km
13.9 km
22.5 km
26.6 km
25.7 km
7.1 km
14.7 km
12.3 km
207.3 km
Completion date
2000
2000
2000
2003
2006
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2014
2015
Source: TransMilenio and IDU, 2006
Map B.4.1.1. Complete System as Planned till 2030 (Trunk Routes only)
Source: TransMilenio 2006
Plans exist to expand the system in up to 8 phases until 2032 totalling nearly 400km of trunk routes.
page 27
TransMilenio has currently 70 feeder routes with a total distance of 468 kilometers. The city of Bogotá
has been divided into 8 “feeder regions”. In the following map the distribution of feeder routes in Bogotá
is given.
Map B.4.1.2. Feeder Routes in the City of Bogotá
Zona Norte (41
buses)
Zona Cerros (Phase III,
in planning stage)
Zona Usme (61
buses)
SUBA (66
buses)
Zona Calle 80 (80
buses)
Zona Calle 26 (phase
III, in planning stage)
Zona Sur (80
buses)
Zona Américas (66
buses)
Red Lines: Trunk routes Phase I
Blue Lines: Trunk routes Phase II
Green Lines: Trunk routes Phase III
Project
activity
Baseline
Table B.4.3. Emissions Sources Included in the Project Boundary
Source
Mobile source emissions of different modes
of road transport for passengers which use
TransMilenio including buses, passenger cars
and taxis
TransMilenio emissions (feeder and trunk
routes)
Gas
Included?
CO2
CH4
N2O
Yes
Yes
Yes
CO2
CH4
N2O
Yes
Yes
Yes
Justification / Explanation
Main source
Main source
The most important GHG in mobile sources is clearly CO250. Road transport emits significant amounts of
other pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs),
sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM) and oxides of nitrate (NOx), which cause or contribute to
local or regional air pollution problems. The methodology however only includes the direct GHGs listed
above.
50
According to IPCCC, 2000, Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories. Chapter 2: Energy; CO2 is responsible for over 97% of the CO2-equivalent emissions from the transportation sector.
page 28
Figure B.4. shows the emission sources included or excluded in the project boundary.
Figure B.4. Project Boundary
Emission sources not
considered
Emissions sources included
Emissions caused by
remaining transport system are not included
(taxis, cars, conventional
public transport)
Upstream emissions included as leakage
• Construction emissions caused by the project
• Reduced life-span of buses due to scrappage
• Well-to-tank emissions of fuels used by project
and baseline
Emissions caused by
freight, ship, rail and air
transport
Direct project and baseline emissions
Emissions caused by TransMilenio phase II-IV
(project emissions) and emissions caused by passengers transported in the project which in absence of TransMilenio would have used different
modes of transport (baseline emissions)
Downstream emissions included as leakage
Congestion change provoked by project resulting
in (inter alia):
• Increased vehicle speed
• Rebound effect
Other emissions
included as leakage
Change of baseline
factors monitored
during project and
included as leakage:
• Change of load
factors of taxis
provoked indirectly by project
• Change of load
factor of remaining conventional
buses provoked
indirectly by project
B.5.
Details of baseline information, including the date of completion of the baseline study
and the name of person (s)/entity (ies) determining the baseline:
Detailed baseline information is included in Annex 3.
The final version of the baseline was completed July 25th 2006.
The baseline was determined by:
Dr. Jürg M. Grütter, grütter consulting
[email protected]
www.transport-ghg.com
This entity is not listed as project participant in Annex I.
SECTION C. Duration of the project activity / Crediting period
C.1
Duration of the project activity:
C.1.1. Starting date of the project activity:
page 29
The starting date of the CDM project is determined as the starting date of the first construction activities
in the first trunk route of the project. Construction for the first lane of Phase II commenced March 2002
(lane “Americas”)51.
C.1.2. Expected operational lifetime of the project activity:
BRTs are basically a new transport system without an operational lifetime. The operational life-time of
the infrastructure is over 30 years. This is the minimum life-span for the infrastructure of the BRT system.
Buses are renewed earlier and changed on a continuous base. The project is however not about renewal of
buses but about a new mass urban transport system. If project buses are renewed during the life-span of
the new BRT system the potential changes in fuel consumption are taken into account by the project
methodology.
C.2
Choice of the crediting period and related information:
C.2.1. Renewable crediting period
C.2.1.1.
Starting date of the first crediting period:
C.2.1.2.
Length of the first crediting period:
01/01/2006
7 years 0 months
C.2.2. Fixed crediting period:
This part is left intentionally blank
C.2.2.1.
Starting date:
C.2.2.2.
Length:
SECTION D. Application of a monitoring methodology and plan
D.1.
Name and reference of approved monitoring methodology applied to the project activity:
“Monitoring methodology for Bus Rapid Transit Projects” AM 031
D.2.
ity:
Justification of the choice of the methodology and why it is applicable to the project activ-
The methodology is applicable as the project activity reduces emissions through the construction and operation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system for urban road based transport.
Table D.2. relates the specific baseline methodology applicability conditions with the proposed project.
Table D.2. Applicability Conditions of the Monitoring Methodology
51
The first lane was operational December 2003
Applicability condition
The project reduces significantly emissions
per passenger transported.
The project has a clear plan how to reduce
existing public transport capacities either
through scrapping, permit restrictions, economic instruments or other means and replacing them by a BRT system.
Data in the required quality is available or
can be made available through the project.
Local regulations do not constrain the establishment or expansion of a BRT system
Fuels used in the baseline and/or project
case are gasoline, diesel, LNG, CNG or
electricity. Projects in which bio-fuels are
used in the baseline or project case are excluded.
page 30
Project situation
TransMilenio reduces significantly the emissions pre passenger due
to higher load factors, new units, mode switch, improved transport
management and a more efficient transport system.
The project has a clear replacement program to retire and scrap
conventional public transport units with a scrappage rate of on average 7.7 units per new articulated unit introduced. New articulated
buses are introduced for the scrapped units.
Data is available for the different aspects required to calculate emission reductions
TransMilenio complies with all local and national regulations. No
regulations constrain the system expansion.
The project fuel used is exclusively diesel. No bio-fuels are used.
The project case is the new bus system and does not include other
modes of transport. Taxis, passenger cars, other buses and other
modes of transport except TransMilenio do not form part of the
project, are outside the project boundary (see project boundary B4.
“Emissions sources not considered”) and are not monitored. Other
modes of transport are only relevant for calculating baseline emissions.
The baseline fuel used by more than 90%52 of public transport
(buses) is diesel. No bio-fuels are used. The baseline fuel used by
passenger cars and by taxis is to over 90% unblended gasoline. According to the resolution 180687 dated June 17th 2003 Art. 5 gasoline shall be blended in Bogotá with 10% ethanol as per latest 27th
of September of 200553. As per January 1st 2006 this policy has not
been implemented. According to EB 22 report Annex 3 “Clarifications on the consideration of national and/or sectoral policies and
circumstances in baseline scenarios (version 02)” this is a national
regulation that gives comparative advantages to less emissionintensive technologies (type E- policy). According to Art. 7 of the
above mentioned document “National and/or sectoral policies or
regulations under paragraph 6 (b) (type E- policies) that have been
implemented since the adoption by the COP of the CDM M&P (decision 17/CP.7, 11 November 2001) need not be taken into account
in developing a baseline scenario (i.e. the baseline scenario could
refer to a hypothetical situation without the national and/or sectoral
policies or regulations being in place).” The regulation requiring
blending with ethanol was issued after Nov 11th 2001 and the implementation deadline was 27th September 2005, well after
11.11.2001. In practice the policy has not been implemented till
1.1.2006 (start of the crediting period of the proposed project). The
baseline fuel used by passenger cars and taxis can thus be considered as unblended gasoline i.e. the baseline fuel refers to a hypothetical situation without the national regulation being in place as
clarified by the EB 22 Annex 3.
Neither the project nor any baseline vehicle categories thus use bio-
52
Fuel types diesel/gasoline/CNG/LPG/LNG per category need only be listed separately if their respective share is
larger than 10% according to page 6 of the approved baseline methodology.
53
blending level.
The BRT system as well as the baseline
public transport system and other public
transport options are road-based.
The BRT system replaces a traditional public transport system in a given city partially
or fully. The methodology cannot be used
for BRT systems in areas where currently
no public transport is available.
The number of passengers transported by
public transport during the crediting period
are higher than the pre-project situation.
page 31
fuels.
The current public transport system, other public transport options
as well as the BRT system are exclusively road-based.
The BRT system replaces gradually the existing public transport
system without replacing Phase I of TransMilenio which is not part
of this project. Public transport is available in areas of operation/influence of TransMilenio in Bogotá.
The total passenger numbers transported by public transport are
projected to increase based on having a more attractive public
transport system. This is also reflected in a modal shift from passenger cars and taxis towards BRT based public transport. The total
number of passengers transported by TransMilenio is expected to
be 5 million passengers per day in 2015, accounting for 80% of
total public transport. Total public transport passengers would thus
be 6.25 million passengers per day54. Baseline passengers transported by public transport are 5.1 million passengers per day or
nearly ¼ less than with the project55. The number of passengers
transported by public transport is thus significantly higher during
the project than in the pre-project situation.
All applicability conditions for using the methodology are thus fulfilled.
54
CONPES 3093, 2000, table A6-1
55
Source: STT in Logitrans, 2003
page 32
D.2. 1. Option 1: Monitoring of the emissions in the projec scenario and the baseline scenario
D.2.1.1. Data to be collected in order to monitor emissions from the project activity, and how this data will be archived:
ID number
(Please use
numbers to
ease crossreferencing
to D.3)
1
TCTB,y
TCFB,y
2
DDTB,y
DDFB,y
3
PTM,T,y
4
PTM,I,y
5
P,PJ,y
56
Data variable
Source of data
Data unit
Measured (m),
calculated (c)
or estimated
(e)
Recording
frequency
Proportion of
data to be
monitored
How will the
data be archived? (electronic/ paper)
Comment
Fuel consumption
trunk and
feeder buses
Distance
driven trunk
and feeder
buses
Passengers
transported
by
TransMilenio
all phases
Passengers
transported
by
TransMilenio
phase I
Passengers
transported
by project
(TransMileni
o phase II –
TransMilenio
S.A.
L
M
monthly
100%
Electronic
Total fuel consumption data is reported from
all operators of TransMilenio
TransMilenio
S.A.
Km
M
monthly
100%
Electronic
TransMilenio
S.A.
passengers
M
monthly
100%
Electronic
Used for data quality control purposes only.
Data monitoring based on GPS. Distance refers to kilometres driven and not kilometres
paid56.
Records are based upon entry points of passengers in trunk stations (transported passengers).
TransMilenio
S.A.
passengers
M
monthly
100%
Electronic
TransMilenio
S.A.
passengers
C
monthly
100%
Electronic
Passengers phase I are those that enter into
stations along trunk routes of phase I. The
separation of passengers phase I and subsequent phases is thus made upon the entry point
in the system.
Difference between total passengers and passengers phase I
Latter are to a very minor degree lower as only kilometres realized on the specified routes are paid and not those to reach the bus depot station.
page 33
IV)
Alternative A of the monitoring methodology is selected to monitor the project emissions. If for certain months total fuel consumption is not available for
specific enterprises then the alternative B of the monitoring methodology will be used taking either the monitored specific fuel consumption of former months
(3-month average preferably) or, if not available, the average specific fuel consumption of all monitored enterprises using the same bus category.
The data on passengers transported by TransMilenio (total, phase I and phases II-IV) is included as this data is used to separate the fuel consumption of the
project (phases II-IV of TransMilenio) from the total fuel consumption recorded (including Phase I). The separation of phase II-IV from phase I is based upon
passengers as:
• Operators are not assigned to specific phases of TransMilenio and operate all routes
• The distance driven per phase is difficult and potentially faulty to disaggregate as trunk and feeder buses are used daily in different routes and thus serve
phase I as well as Phase II destinations according to the central dispatch operator.
The most appropriate and exact separation of Phase I from the project is thus based upon passengers transported per phase. Passengers are assigned to phases
according to the entry point in the system i.e. if a passenger boards a stations of TransMilenio in a route phase I he is counted as a passenger of phase I. The
counting is based upon mechanical and/or electronic automated control points at the entry of the enclosed stations. This method to separate passengers of distinct phases is recommended by the baseline methodology (page 14).
Data on kilometres driven are monitored for quality assurance purpose (they are used to calculate the fuel efficiency).
D.2.1.2. Description of formulae used to estimate project emissions (for each gas, source, formulae/algorithm, emissions units of CO2 eq.)
Formula (1)
PPJ , y = PTM ,T , y − PTM , I , y
Where:
PPJ,y
PTM,T,y
PTM,I,y
Passengers transported by the project (TransMilenio phase II-IV) for the year “y”
Passengers transported by TransMilenio in total for the year “y”
Passengers transported by TransMilenio Phase I for the year “y”
page 34
Formula (2)
TC y = (TCTB , y + TC FB , y )×
Where:
TCy
TCTB,y
TCFB,y
PPJ,y
PTM,T,y
PPJ , y
PTM ,T , y
Total consumption of fuel in liters for project for year “y“
Total consumption of fuel of trunk buses in liters for project for year “y“
Total consumption of fuel of feeder buses in liters for project for year “y“
Passengers transported by the project for the year “y”
Formula (3)
PE y = TC y × (EFCO 2, D + EFCH 4, D + EFN 2O , D )
Where:
PEy
TCy
EFCO2,D
EFCH4,D
EFN2O,D
Project emissions in year “y”
Total consumption of fuel (diesel) in liters for project for year “y“
CO2 emission factor per liter diesel
CH4 emission factor per liter diesel (based on GWP)
N2O emission factor per liter diesel (based on GWP)
Currently all buses are using diesel fuel. In case of other fuels than diesel being used in the future (e.g. CNG) the same formula is applied but using the respective emission factors.
Buses used are all large units. The default emissions factors are taken from the baseline methodology based on large diesel buses (Appendix A, table A.1.).
D.2.1.3. Relevant data necessary for determining the baseline of anthropogenic emissions by sources of GHGs within the project boundary and how
page 35
such data will be collected and archived :
ID number
(Please use
numbers to
to table
D.3)
6
SECx,i
7
OCi
OCi,y
8
TDi
TDi,y
9
Nx,i
Nx,i,y
Data variable
Source of data
Fuel efficiency (per
relevant fuel
type “x” and
category
“i”)
Average
occupancy
rate baseline
of vehicle
category “i”
International
literature and
IPCC adapted
to local circumstances
Average trip
distance
baseline for
vehicle category “i”
Number of
vehicles per
fuel type “x”
and vehicle
category “i”
Data unit
Measured
(m), calculated (c),
estimated
(e),
Recording
frequency
Proportion
of data to
be monitored
How will the data be
archived? (electronic/ paper)
l/km
M
Before
project
start
sample
electronic
Used for passenger cars, taxis, buses per
relevant fuel type. Based on international
data from comparable regions and IPCC
values adapted to local circumstances. See
Annex 3.
STT and
TransMilenio
passengers
M
Sample
electronic
For passenger cars, taxis and buses.
Measurements in year 3 and 7 required for
leakage calculations.
STT and
TransMilenio
Km
M
Before
project
start and
for buses
and taxis
years 3
and 7
Before
project
start and
annually
Sample
electronic
STT and
TransMilenio
Vehicles
M
Before
project
start and
annually
for passenger
cars used
by TMusers
100% and
for passenger cars
used by
TM-users
based on
sample
survey
electronic
For all passenger cars and taxis. During
project monitoring of the distance driven is
based on an annual survey of passengers
using TM. See Annex 3 for details of the
survey.
Per vehicle category the amount of vehicles
per relevant fuel type. Passenger cars,
buses and taxis are included. For buses the
amount of units per sub-category(small,
medium and large buses). Annual recording of fuel type used from passengers
using TM which in absence of the project
would have used a passenger car. See Annex 3 for details of the survey
Comment
10
DDZS
DDZM
DDZL
DDT
11
PZ
12
PPJ,y
13
PPJ,i
14
Policies
Annual distance driven
by all vehicles in category
Passengers
transported
by buses
baseline
Passengers
transported
by project
Passengers
transported
by the project who
would have
used transport mode
“i”
Policies that
affect baseline
page 36
STT
Km
M
Before
project
start
sample
electronic
For all sub-categories of buses baseline
and for taxis (for latter for leakage loadfactor)
STT
Passengers
M
Before
project
start
100%
electronic
Same coverage data year and time-period
as for ID 10
TransMilenio
passengers
M
monthly
100%
electronic
TransMilenio
passengers
M
6x per
year
Sample
survey
electronic
Based on total passengers transported by
TM subtracting passengers of phase I according to the entry points in stations. (see
monitoring of project emissions)
The project monitors what transport mode
passengers would have used in absence of
the project. See format of the survey in Annex 3. The passengers transported per
category “i” are calculated based on the
share of passengers per category “i” determined through the sample survey.
TransMilenio
none
E
Before
project
start and
annually
100%
electronic
Transport policies, which affect the baseline emissions, are identified and their impact on any of the baseline factors is estimated. This is done ex-ante to project start.
Annually the project assesses if a new policy has been implemented which changes in
a measurable manner a baseline parameter. TransMilenio will assess if policies
might have effects on various parameters.
Motorcycles are not included due to their limited quantity in Bogotá (see for details Annex 3).
The total amount of fuel consumed per vehicle category is not monitored as the approach used for the baseline calculations is not based on a sectoral approach.
page 37
D.2.1.4. Description of formulae used to estimate baseline emissions (for each gas, source, formulae/algorithm, emissions units of CO2 eq.)
Formula (4)
BE y = ∑ (EFP ,i , y × PPJ ,i , y )
i
Where:
BEy
EFP,i,y
PPJ,i,y
Baseline CO2eq emissions for the year “y”
Baseline emission factor per passenger transported in vehicle category “i” in year “y”
Passengers transported by the project in year “y” that without the project activity would have used category “i”, where “i” includes Z (buses, public transport), T (taxis), or C (passenger cars)57
The passengers transported per category “i” are calculated based on the share of passengers per category “i” determined through the sample survey.
The specific fuel consumption (relative approach) is taken for all vehicle categories:
Formula (5)
EFP ,i , y = EFP ,i × IRi ,t × CDi , y
Where:
EFP,i,y
EFP,i
CDi
IRi,t
t
Baseline emission factor per passenger per category “i” before project start
Correction factor for changing trip distance in category “i” for the year “y”, where “i” includes C (passenger cars) and T (taxis)
Technology improvement factor per vehicle category “i” for the year “t”
age in years of fuel consumption data used for calculating the emission factor in year “y”58; t > 0
The adjustment for CDi,y is only made if TDi,y<TDi.
57
NMT and IT is not included as emissions are 0 for this category in the baseline
58
e.g. “t=7” for the year 2007 if the fuel data is from the year 2000
page 38
For passenger cars EFKM,C,y is annually adapted according to changes in fuel composition of passenger cars. Adaptation is however only made if the emission
factor calculated is lower than the original emission factor used.
Formula (6)
CDi , y =
TDi , y
TDi
where:
CDi,y
TDi
TDi,y
Correction factor for changing trip distance in category “i” for the year “y”, where “i” includes T (taxis) and C (passenger cars)
average trip distance in kilometers in category “i” before project start
average trip distance in kilometers in category “i”in the year “y”
Note:
The adjustment is only made if TDi,y<TDi
Formula (7)
EFP , Z =
EFKM , ZS × DDZS + EFKM , ZM × DDZM + EFKM , ZL × DDZL
Where:
EFP,Z
EFKM,ZS
DDZS
EFKM,ZM
DDZM
EFKM,ZL
DDZS
PZ
PZ
Emission factor per passenger transported buses baseline (before project start)
Emissions per kilometer small buses
Total distance driven (kilometer) by small buses
Emissions per kilometer medium buses
Total distance driven (kilometer) by medium buses
Emissions per kilometer large buses
Total distance driven (kilometer) by large buses
Passengers transported by buses in the baseline
Formula (8)
EFP ,i =
page 39
EFKM ,i × TDi
Where:
EFP,Z
EFKM,I
TDi
OCi
OCi
Emission factor per passenger transported before project start for vehicle category “i”, where “i” includes T (taxis), C ( passenger cars)
Emission per kilometer of category “i”
Average trip distance for vehicle category “i”
Average vehicle occupancy rate of vehicle category “i”59
Formula (9)
⎡
⎛ N x ,i
EFKM ,i = ∑ ⎢ SEC x ,i × (EFCO 2, x + EFCH 4, x + EFN 2O , x ) × ⎜⎜
x ⎢
⎝ Ni
⎣
where:
EFKM,i
SECx,i
EFCO2,x
EFCH4,x
EFN2O,x
Ni
Nx,i
⎞⎤
⎟⎟⎥
⎠⎥⎦
Emissions factor per kilometer driven of vehicle category “i”
Specific energy consumption of fuel type “x” in vehicle category “i”
CO2 emission factor for fuel type “x”
CH4 emission factor for fuel type “x”(based on GWP)
N2O emission factor for fuel type “x”(based on GWP)
Total number of vehicles in category “i”
Number of vehicles in vehicle category “i” using fuel “x”
If fewer than 10% of vehicles in a specific vehicle category are gasoline, diesel, CNG or LPG powered then this respective fuel is omitted. In alternative vehicles the threshold value is less than 1%.
The default emissions factors EF are taken from the baseline methodology (Appendix A, table A.1.).
59
In the case of taxis the taxi driver is not counted and only passengers are included in the occupancy rate
page 40
PPJ includes only passengers of Phase II and following of TransMilenio. Passengers however can use with the same ticket buses of phase I or any other phase.
Passengers can thus not be directly attributed to a specific phase. The assignment of passengers to the project respectively to Phase I (non-project) is made in
relation to where the passenger boarded the system. The boardings are registered electronically or mechanically in an automated manner.
D. 2.2. Option 2: Direct monitoring of emission reductions from the project activity (values should be consistent with those in section E).
This part is left blank intentionally.
D.2.2.1. Data to be collected in order to monitor emissions from the project activity, and how this data will be archived:
ID number
(Please use
numbers to
to table
D.3)
Data
variable
Source of
data
Data
unit
Measured (m),
calculated (c),
estimated (e),
Recording
frequency
Proportion
of data to
be monitored
How will the data
be archived?
(electronic/ paper)
Comment
D.2.2.2. Description of formulae used to calculate project emissions (for each gas, source, formulae/algorithm, emissions units of CO2 eq.):
D.2.3. Treatment of leakage in the monitoring plan
D.2.3.1. If applicable, please describe the data and information that will be collected in order to monitor leakage effects of the project
activity
ID number
(Please use
numbers to
ease crossreferencing to table
D.3)
15
CEM
ASP
Data variable
Source of data
Amount of
cement / asphalt used
IDU
Data unit
t/km
Measured (m),
calculated (c)
or estimated
(e)
Recording
frequency
Proportion
of data to
be monitored
How will the
data be archived? (electronic/ paper)
Comment
M
Annually
100%
electronic
Measured annually during construction phase.
Calculations ex-ante based on construction
plans
16
DTCEM
DTASP
17
BSCRw
18
BABL
19
BAPJ
per km trunk
road
Length of
trunk roads
built with
cement / asphalt
Buses
scrapped by
project
Average age
of retired
buses baseline
Average age
of scrapped
buses
page 41
IDU
Km
M
Annually
100%
electronic
Measured annually during construction phase.
Calculations ex-ante based on construction
plans
TransMilenio
Buses
M
Annually
100%
electronic
STT
Years
M
Before
project
start
100%
electronic
For leakage calculations ex-ante based on
relation scrapping to new bus used in official
bidding documents of TransMilenio phase
II.Monitoring is based on scrapping reports.
Size of bus scrapped is recorded. Small and
medium buses are “transformed” into large
buses (4 small = 1 large; 2 medium = 1 large)
Based on vehicle registration statistics after
TransMilenio Phase I
STT
years
M
annually
100%
electronic
20
ROCZ,y
Occupancy
rate of buses
relative to
capacity
STT and
TransMilenio
%
M
Before
project
start plus
year 3 and
7
sample
electronic
21
OCT,y
Occupancy
rate of taxis
STT,
TransMilenio
%
M
Before
project
Sample
electronic
Calculations based on scrapping reports. If
scrappage data does not contain the age of the
vehicle then vehicle registration statistics can
be taken assuming that always the eldest vehicles will be scrapped first (this is also the
methodology used for calculations ex-ante)
The occupancy rate of the remaining bus fleet
is monitored through representative samples.
Before project start is the benchmark. The data
before project start is a study realized 2002 by
Logic for STT which was the base for the final
design of Phase II. Only changes over 10 percentage points are registered. The same methodology as used by Logic for the baseline will
be applied in the monitoring of the load factor
in the years 3 and 7 to ensure data comparability and consistency.
The occupancy rate of taxis is monitored
through representative samples.
page 42
start plus
year 3 and
7
22
NZ,y
NT,y
23
SRS
24
RSBL
RSPJ
25
TRC
26
VBL
VPJ
If results show negative changes > 10 percentage points in the load factor this change is
attributed and included in the leakage calculation for all years since the last monitoring of
the load factor.
Before project start (baseline) a study realized
by the Universidad Nacional de Colombia
(2005) with data for 2004 is taken. The same
methodology will be applied in the monitoring
of the load factor in the years 3 and 7 to ensure data comparability and consistency.
Registration statistics; same years as in Item
20 and 21
Number of
conventional
buses and
taxis still
operating
Share of road
space used
by public
transport
baseline
Road space
baseline and
project
STT
units
M
year 3and
7
100%
electronic
JICA
percentage
E
Before
project
start
Sample
electronic
Urban planning model financed by JICA
IDU
Index, km
e, c
Before
project
start
100%
electronic
Number of
daily trips
undertaken
by passenger
cars
Average
speed passenger car in
baseline and
project
STT
Unit
M
Before
project
start
Sample
electronic
Road space baseline based on IDU. Reduced
road space is lanes which where eliminated
due to dedicated bus lanes. Road space project
= road space baseline – eliminated lanes
Used for urban transport planning; data
source STT
STT
km/h
c and m
Before
project
start
100%
electronic
The current transport speed is based on measurements made by STT based on surveys. The
transport speed with the project is based on
values obtained with different numbers of cars
circulating monitored by STT.
Some data required for leakage calculation is already used for baseline calculation and thus not listed again in this table.
page 43
D.2.3.2. Description of formulae used to estimate leakage (for each gas, source, formulae/algorithm, emissions units of CO2 eq.)
Formula (10)
LE y = LEUP , y + LE LF , Z , y + LE LF ,T , y + LECONG , y
where:
LEy
LEUP,y
LELF,Z,y
LELF,Z,y
LECONG,y
Emissions leakage in year “y”
Emissions leakage due to upstream processes in year “y”
Emissions Leakage from change of load factor in baseline buses in year “y”
Emissions Leakage from change of load factor in taxis in year “y”
Emission Leakage from reduced congestion in year “y”
If LEy < 0 then leakage is not included
If ELy > 0 then leakage is included
Formula (11)
LEUP , y = LECON , y + LE LSP , y + LEUFP , y
Where:
LEUP,y
LECON,y
LELSP,y
LEUFP,y
Emissions leakage due to construction in year “y”
Emissions leakage due to reduced life-span of buses in year “y”
Emission leakage due to upstream emissions from fuel production in year “y”
Formula (12)
LE CON , y =
CEM × EFCEM × DTCEM + ASP × EFASP × DT ASP
Y
Where:
LECON,y
CEM
ASP
EFCEM
EFASP
DTCEM
DTASP
Y
page 44
Cement used per kilometre of trunk lane
Asphalt used per kilometre of trunk lane
Specific emissions factor for cement
Specific emissions factor for asphalt
Total kilometres of trunk lanes built in project made of cement (km * number of trunk lanes)
Total kilometres of trunk lanes built in project made of asphalt (km * number of trunk lanes)
crediting years of project (7)
The default factors for the specific emissions for cement and asphalt are taken from Appendix A, leakage parameters 1 and 2
Formula (13)
y
LE LSP , y =
Where:
LELSP,y
BSCRw
EFBM
BABL
BAPJ
Y
∑ BSCR
w =1
w
× EFBM ×
BABL − BAPJ
BABL
Y
Bus units scrapped by project in the year “w”, where w = 1 to “y”
Emissions factor for bus manufacturing
Average age BAU when buses are replaced /retired in the baseline scenario
Average bus age of scrapped buses under the project activity
For BABL the age taken is the 99 percentile of buses operating in the city i.e. 99% of buses are younger than BABL. EFBM is taken from Appendix A, Leakage
parameters, number 3. Medium sized and small buses are “converted” into large buses based on the passenger capacity, taking large buses as such with a capacity of 80 persons60.
60
2 medium = 1 large, 4 small = 1 large
page 45
Formula (14)
LEUFP , y = (PE y − BE y )× UEF
Where:
LEUFP,y
PEy
BEy
UEF
Emission leakage due to upstream fuel production emissions in year “y”
Baseline emissions in year “y”
Upstream emissions multiplier, based on default factor
UEF is taken as default value from Appendix I, number 5, baseline methodology.
Formula (15)
⎛ ROC Z , y
LE LF , Z , y = EFKM , Z , y × VDZ × N Z , y × ⎜⎜1 −
⎝ ROC Z ,0
Where:
LELF,Z,y
EFKM, Z,y
VDZ
NZ,y
ROCZ, y
ROCZ,0
⎞
⎟
⎟
⎠
Emissions Leakage from change of load factor in buses baseline in year “y”
Emissions per kilometer of buses baseline for the year “y”
Annual average distance driven per bus baseline before project start
Number of buses in the conventional transport system operating in year “y”
Average occupancy rate relative to capacity of conventional buses in year “y”, based on the most recent study of occupancy rates
Average occupancy rate relative to capacity of buses baseline before start of project
Note:
If ROCZ,0 - ROCZ, y ≤ 0.1 then LELF,Z,y = 0
Formula (16):
VDZ =
∑ DD
∑N
k =S ,M ,L
k = S ,M , L
where:
VDZ
DDZ,k
NZZ,k
page 46
Z ,k
Z ,k
Total distance driven by buses baseline of size “k”
Number of buses baseline of size “k”
Formula (17):
⎛ OCT , y
LE LF ,T , y = EFKM ,T , y × VDT × N T , y × ⎜⎜1 −
⎝ OCT ,0
Where:
LELF,T,y
EFKM,T, y
VDT
NT,y
OCT,y
OCT,0
⎞
⎟
⎟
⎠
Emissions leakage from change of load factor in taxis baseline in year “y”
Emissions per kilometer of taxis baseline for the year “y”
Distance driven per taxi on average baseline before project starts
Number of taxis operating in year “y”
Average occupancy rate of taxi for the year “y” (passengers only)
Average occupancy rate of taxi before project start (passengers only)
note:
If OCT,0 - OCT,y ≤ 0.1 then LELF,T,y = 0
Only circulating taxis are counted. Taxis without passenger are counted as “0” occupancy rate.
Formula (18)
LE CONG , y = LETRIPS , y + LE SP , y
where:
LECONG,y
LETRIPS,y
LESP,y
Emissions leakage from reduced congestion in year “y”
Emissions leakage from additional and/or longer trips in year “y”
Emissions leakage from change in vehicle speed in year “y”
LECONG is calculated ex-ante and fixed for the crediting period.
Formula (19)
LETRIPS , y = ITR × ARS y × TDC × EFKM ,C × TRC × D
where:
LETRIPS,y
ITR
ARSy
TRC
TDC
EFKM,C
D
Emission leakage from additional and/or longer trips in the year “y”
Elasticity factor additional and/or longer trips: the factor is set at 0.1
Additional road space available (in percentage) in the year “y”
Number of daily trips realized by passenger cars baseline
Average trip distance for passenger cars
Emission factor per distance of passenger cars before project start
number of days buses operate per year (303 days, constant number for all crediting years61)
ITR is taken as default value from Appendix A, leakage parameters, number 5 (baseline methodology).
Formula (20)
ARS y =
where:
ARSy
BSCRw
NZ
61
⎡ BSCR w
⎤ RSB − RSPy
× SRS ⎥ −
⎢
RSB
NZ
w=1... y ⎣
⎦
∑
Bus units scrapped by project in the year “w” where “w” = 1 to “y” (cumulative)
Number of buses in use in baseline
Based on operational days of TransMilenio which is considered as identical to conventional bus services
page 47
SRS
RSB
RSPy
page 48
Share of road space used by public transport in the baseline (in percentage)
Total road space available in the baseline
Total available road space in the project project in the year “y” (= RSB minus kilometre of lanes that were reduced due to dedicated bus lanes)
Formula (21)
[
]
LE SP , y = TRC × TDC × EFKM ,VPJ ,C , y − EFKM ,VBL ,C × DW
where:
LESP,y
TRC
TDC
EFKM,VPJ,C,y
EFKM,VBL,C
DW
Emission leakage from change in vehicle speed in the year “y”
Average trip distance driven by passenger cars
Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars at project speed in the year “y”
Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars at baseline speed
number of days per year (taken as constant 365 for all years of the crediting period)
The vehicle speed project is calculated based on the additional road space available for passenger cars.
Formula (22)
EFKM ,V ,C = 135.44 − 2.314 × V + 0.0144 × V 2
Where:
EFKM,V,C
V
Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars traveling at speed V (VBL speed baseline; VPJ speed project)
Vehicle speed; calculated both for the project speed (VPJ) and the baseline speed baseline (VBL); VPJ is calculated annually
The Corinair speed emission factor default formula is used. This corresponds to Appendix A, leakage parameters, number 6 (baseline methodology).
page 49
D.2.4. Description of formulae used to estimate emission reductions for the project activity
(for each gas, source, formulae/algorithm, emissions units of CO2 eq.)
Formula (23)
ER y = BE y − PE y − LE y
where:
ERy
BEy
PEy
LEy
Emission reductions in year “y”
Emissions leakage in year “y”
D.3.
Quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA) procedures are being undertaken for data
monitored
Data
(Indicate table
and ID number
e.g. 3.-1.; 3.2.)
Fuel consumption project
2-1-1; 1
Uncertainty level of data
(High/Medium/Low)
Explain QA/QC procedures planned for these data, or why such
procedures are not necessary.
Low
Data reported is statistically checked with average fuel consumption of other operators. If deviations are above 10% then data is
cross-checked, e.g. with fuel receipts. QA software is established
for monitoring. The outline is presented as Annex to the PDD
while the software is available for review by the validator.
Based on GPS. Used for paying operators of system and thus
checked well by operators as well as TransMilenio.
Distance driven
project
2-1-1; 2
Passengers total
TransMilenio
2-1-1; 3
Passengers
phase I
TransMilenio
2-1-1; 4
Fuel efficiency
baseline vehicles
2-1-3; 6
Occupancy rate
vehicles baseline
2-1-3; 7
Average trip
distance vehicles baseline
2-1-3; 8
Low
Number of vehicles baseline
2-1-3; 9
Low
Low
Low
Medium
Statistics are based on electronic or mechanic measurements of all
persons entering stations. Data is cross-checked against financial
receipts from the sale of tickets.
Statistics are based on electronic or mechanic measurements of all
persons entering stations phase I, which are clearly defined based
on the trunk routes constructed in Phase I. The monitoring manual
lists explicitly all stations phase I.
Data of surveys is compared to IPCC.
Medium
The same data source as item 8 is taken to ensure data consistency.
Low
The same data source as item 7 is taken to ensure data consistency. Annual monitoring is based on a survey of passengers using
TM. To ensure a conservative approach baseline emission factors
are only adjusted if the survey results in lower baseline emissions
(i.e. lower trip distances)
Based on vehicle registration data (formal transport). Same
source for ID 11. Annual monitoring of fuel types used by passenger cars of users of TM which in absence of latter would have used
their car is based on a survey of passengers using TM. To ensure a
conservative approach baseline emission factors are only adjusted
if the survey results in lower baseline emissions (i.e. lower emission factors)
page 50
Distance driven
baseline vehicles
2-1-3; 10
Passengers
transported
buses baseline
2-1-3; 11
Passengers
transported by
project which
would have used
different transport modes in
absence of the
project
2-1-3; 13
Policies
2-1-3; 14
Low
Only formal sector, data control through STT; same data source
as ID 11 to ensure consistency of calculations
Low
Low
The same methodology is used to estimate transport modes over
the whole crediting period. Surveys are carried out through a specialized company contracted for this purpose by TransMilenio.
The survey was tested during 6 months and the final design of
questions is included in the PDD as Annex. The sample size ensures a 95% confidence interval and a 5% error margin using
statistical techniques for random surveys.
Medium
Amount cement /
asphalt used per
kilometre
2-3-1; 15
Length of trunk
roads constructed with
cement / asphalt
2-3-1; 16
Buses scrapped
by project
2-3-1; 17
Average age of
retired buses
baseline
2-3-1; 18
Average age of
scrapped buses
2-3-1; 19
Occupancy rate
buses baseline
relative to capacity
2-3-1; 20
Low
Policies are assessed. Their impact on the baseline parameters is
based on information or studies realized by the policy promoter. If
the impact is significant it is assumed that the full modal switch of
the implementation year is attributable to the policy and not the
project. All policies with a measurable impact on project paramters are included
Based on annual reports of constructors supervised by IDU
Low
Based on annual reports of constructors supervised by IDU
Low
Based on scrapping reports made to ensure contract compliance
Low
High quality data of recent comprehensive survey is available.
Low
Occupancy rate
taxis baseline
2-3-1; 21
Medium
Based on scrapping reports made to ensure contract compliance;
if scrapping reports are incomplete then it is assumed that the oldest buses are scrapped first
The same methodology is used to measure the occupancy rate as
in ID 7 thus ensuring data consistency. For QA a precise and
transparent data collection protocol is thus established detailing
methodology and operational issues (including frequency, location, time, duration of measurement). The data is only used if
changes >10 percentage points will be registered.
The same methodology is used to measure the occupancy rate as
in ID 7 thus ensuring data consistency. For QA a precise and
transparent data collection protocol is thus established detailing
methodology and operational issues (including frequency, location, time, duration of measurement). The data is only used if
changes >0.1 points will be registered.
Medium
Number of conventional buses
and taxis still
operating
2-3-1; 22
Share road
space used by
public transport
2-3-1; 23
Road space
baseline and
project
2-3-1; 24
Trips passenger
cars
2-3-1; 25
Vehicle speed
baseline and
project
2-3-1; 26
page 51
Low
Medium
Based on calculations made for urban infrastructure and transport
scenarios
Low
Based on calculation (RSP) and infrastructure statistics
Low
Based on calculations made for urban infrastructure and transport
scenarios; based on sample countings controlled by STT
Medium
Regular survey of travel speeds are realized. The calculations are
based on monitored vehicle speeds with different quantities of vehicles.
A sensitivity analysis is made of all data required for baseline, leakage and project emission calculations.
See for details Annex 3.
D.4
Please describe the operational and management structure that the project operator will
implement in order to monitor emission reductions and any leakage effects, generated by the project activity
TransMilenio S.A. is ISO 9000 certified and has in place regularly controlled QA procedures. Procedures
for record handling, storage, reporting and reviewing are thus already established through the QA procedures defined in the ISO 9000 system.
TransMilenio has an environmental department in charge of all environmental affairs. The department has
designated a person for managing all data related to the CDM project including responsibility for data
collection, quality assurance, reports and data storage. The environmental department is under the direct
supervision of the CEO of TransMilenio S.A.
Grütter consulting has developed on behalf of CAF and TransMilenio a special software for monitoring
of all data required for the project. The software can be reviewed by the validator. Features of the software include:
• All parameters required for baseline, leakage and project emissions are included. The same IDs and
definitions are used as in the PDD.
• The software asks for all the data to be monitored in the frequency specified in the PDD.
• The software is in Spanish to facilitate data insertion and to reduce errors.
• Data units common in Colombia (e.g. gallons) are used. The software automatically transforms these
units in the ones defined in the PDD thus reducing possible calculation or conversion errors.
• The software calculates baseline, leakage and emission reductions in tons of CO2eq using the formulaes
listed in the PDD and the data monitored.
• For various data elements “normal” or average ranges of data were specified. If data inserted falls outside this range the software automatically challenges the data entry thus avoiding typing errors or data
errors.
The software has been checked during a pre-trail test. The staff in charge of entering the data has been
trained on the usage of the software. Additionally during 2 years TransMilenio will receive backstopping
page 52
through grütter consulting in data monitoring assuring an excellent data quality level. For details see Annex Monitoring Plan.
A monitoring manual in Spanish has been developed defining all responsibilities and procedures. For
each data parameter the information sources, units, frequency of measurement as well as data quality assurance processes have been described in detail. Also steps are provided how to proceed in case of problematic data. The staff has been trained on usage of the manual. For details see Annex Monitoring Plan.
D.5
Name of person/entity determining the monitoring methodology:
This version of the monitoring methodology was completed July 22nd 2006.
The monitoring methodology was determined by:
Dr. Jürg M. Grütter
grütter consulting
[email protected]
www.transport-ghg.com
The entity is not listed as a project participant in Annex I.
SECTION E. Estimation of GHG emissions by sources
E.1.
Estimate of GHG emissions by sources:
The project emissions are from TransMilenio phases II to IV. This includes two categories of buses:
¾ Trunk route buses: These are articulated buses with a capacity of 160 passengers circulating along designated bus corridors.
¾ Feeder route buses: These are large buses with a capacity of 70-90 passengers.
Feeder as well as trunk-route buses are diesel units. For both categories emissions are monitored based on
fuel usage reported.
For the purpose of projecting the GHG emissions of the project in the PDD following steps were taken.
1. The average fuel efficiency of trunk and feeder buses was determined based on recorded data
from January to May 2006. All operators of trunk and feeder buses record monthly total fuel consumed. This data is checked by TransMilenio. Also total distances are recorded based on GPS.
2. The annual number of passengers for the project is recorded. Passengers are recorded per entry
station in trunk routes through mechanical or electronic devices. Stations are defined either for
phase I, II or following. Passengers are assigned to the project according to phases i.e. all passengers entering trunk stations of phases II, III or IV are counted as project passengers. To estimate
future project emissions projection of passengers according to trunk routes were taken. Passengers who only use feeder buses but do not enter any trunk route station are not counted. The
amount of passengers registered by the project is thus clearly a conservative figure.
3. Based on historic data from 2001 to 2005 the IPK (Index of passengers per kilometre) of trunk
buses in TransMilenio was determined. Based on the amount of passengers expected and the IPK
the expected amount of trunk bus kilometres was calculated.
4. Based on data from January to May 2006 the IPK of feeder buses was determined. Based on the
amount of passengers expected and the IPK the expected amount of feeder bus kilometres was
calculated.
5. Based on the distance driven of all buses and the average distance per unit the number of trunk
and feeder buses was calculated.
page 53
Based on these elements the fuel consumption and the corresponding GHG emissions for the project were
calculated. For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3.
The total estimated project emissions over the crediting period are 1,053,194 tCO2eq.
E.2.
Estimated leakage:
Following leakage sources are addressed:
1. Upstream emissions due to
o Construction: Emissions due to the construction of dedicated lanes for the BRT project.
o Reduced life-span: Additional emissions due to earlier replacement of buses than under
business as usual. This is based on emissions due to scrappage policies.
o Life-cycle effect of reduced fuel usage
Upstream emissions are calculated ex-ante and monitored annually.
2. Change of load factor of the baseline transport system due to the project i.e. the project potentially influences the occupancy rate of the remaining vehicles. This is monitored on a regular base
during project execution for baseline buses and for taxis.
3. Reduced congestion in remaining roads provoking higher average vehicle speed and a rebound
effect. The annual impact of congestion is calculated ex-ante. The congestion impact is not monitored annually as ex-ante calculations result in additional emission reductions.
The impact of reduced emissions due to financing TransMilenio partially through a surtax on fuels (thus
resulting in a reduced consumption of fuels and inter alia less GHG emissions) is not considered. This is
commensurate with a conservative approach.
For the sake of a conservative approach leakage is only considered if the total effect is positive (thus reducing emission reductions). Negative leakage is not accounted for.
1. Upstream Emissions
The project has an impact on various upstream emissions including construction (production of construction material), production of buses and upstream emissions associated with fuel production. Not all of
these emissions necessarily occur in the project country and some might even occur in Annex B countries.
The leakage calculation is made before project start based on conservative default values. The leakage
emissions are thereafter monitored annually.
1.1. Construction Emissions
The basic impact of construction is due to new trunk lanes being built for the BRT project. These emissions are a consequence of the project, although not inside the project boundary. The emissions occur during the production of the required building materials and are thus upstream. The focus is on cement and
asphalt. Phase II only used cement. The same is planned for phases III and IV – however the amount of
asphalt used is also monitored in case the used construction material changes.
For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated upstream construction emissions over the crediting period are 229,424 tCO2eq.
1.2. Vehicle Replacement Emissions
The process of scrapping itself creates no additional emissions as buses sooner or later would have been
scrapped anyway. The emissions due to scrappage are basically a reduced life-span of the vehicle. This
page 54
means increased energy use for manufacturing the buses per operating year or kilometre. Energy used for
the manufacturing of buses are upstream emissions.
For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated upstream emissions resulting from early retirement of buses are over the crediting period 56,826 tCO2eq.
1.3. Upstream Fuel Emissions
The extraction, production and transport of fuels results in GHG emissions. Reduced fuel consumption
thus reduces more than the combustion emissions. A parameter for upstream emissions is applied. Colombia refines all diesel in own refineries and does not import diesel from Annex I countries.
For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated upstream emission reductions resulting from upstream fuel emissions are over the crediting period -243,389 tCO2eq.
1.4. Summary Upstream Emissions
Total upstream emissions are the sum of construction, vehicle replacement and upstream fuel emissions.
Upstream emissions = 229,424 + 56,826 -243,389 = 42,861 tCO2eq
2. Change of Load Factor
Passengers have moved from other modes of transport to the project. If buses or other transport modes
continue operating as formerly but with less passengers the result is a drop in the load factor. The project
considers, in accordance with the baseline methodology, load factor changes in taxis as well as in the remaining conventional buses.
The project retires through scrappage units from the traditional public transport system. TransMilenio
expects to reduce the current supply of public transport vehicles and thus to maintain or even increase the
load factor of remaining units. For the projections it is thus assumed that the load factor will remain constant and no leakage will occur. The load factor of the remaining bus fleet will be monitored according to
the monitoring methodology proposed.
The load factor of buses of the public sector before project start is 66%. This is based on a study realized by STT 2002 (Logitrans, 2003, page 20). If the load factor monitored is thus lower than 56% leakage
will be included. If the load factor is 56% or higher no leakage will be considered. For monitoring purposes the same methodology and characteristics will be used to measure the load factor of the remaining
bus fleet to ensure data comparability. See Annex 3 for key features of the referenced load factor study.
Data of 2003 is the appropriate vintage as phase II was not yet operational (start of operations first lane
December 2003) while policy measures to reduce the number of vehicles (“pico y placa”) were already in
place.
Before project start the average occupancy rate for taxis excluding the driver is 0.81 passengers based
on data of the year 2002 (“Evaluación y Caracterización del parque automotor de transporte público individual y colectivo en Bogotá D.C y confrontación con la flota necesaria para satisfacer la demanda actual
de viajes en este modo, Martha Patricia Ibáñez Pérez –Trabajo de grado – Especialización en transporte –
2004”). If the average occupancy rate for taxis monitored is thus lower than 0.71 leakage will be calculated and included. If the average occupancy rate is equal to or higher than 0.71 no leakage will be considered. For monitoring the same methodology and characteristics will be used to measure the average
occupancy rate of the remaining taxi fleet to ensure data comparability. See Annex 3 for key features of
the referenced occupancy rate study. Data of 2002 is the appropriate vintage (see argumentation load factor buses above).
page 55
The total estimated upstream emission reductions resulting from a change of the load factor are estimated
ex-ante as 0.
3. Impact of Reduced Congestion on Remaining Roads
The impact of induced traffic (additional trips) provoked through the new transport system is addressed
directly in the project emissions and is not part of the leakage62.
TransMilenio reduces through scrapping the amount of buses on the road and thus reduces potentially
congestion. On the other hand TransMilenio also quits some available road space as some trunk routes
eliminate former lanes used by all traffic. The impact of TransMilenio depends basically on the interaction between the new trunk roads and the remaining road space. Feeder lines are not considered as they
operate equal to the conventional bus system. TransMilenio has dedicated trunk roads where only selected public transport vehicles can operate. The other road space is for passenger cars and the remaining
public transport vehicles such as taxis or remaining buses. Following elements need to be considered:
¾ Trunk roads can potentially reduce the space of remaining roads. The proportion of reduced road space
available to passenger cars is calculated.
¾ Conventional buses are retired thus freeing road space. The proportion of retired buses and the proportion of public transport in road space is determined.
The impact of reduced congestion basically results in a Rebound Effect and a higher average speed plus
less stop-and-go traffic leading to lower emissions. The congestion and the speed impact are only calculated ex-ante.
For specific calculations of the projections realized refer to Annex 3. The total estimated emissions due to
the rebound effect are 43,328 tCO2eq and due to increased vehicle speed the leakage is estimated in 77,421 tCO2eq.Total leakage emissions due to reduced congestion over the crediting period are thus 34,113 tCO2eq i.e. the project reduces emissions through the reduced congestion.
4. Total Leakage
The sum of projected leakages is 12,555 tCO2eq. See for calculations Annex 3. In years in which leakage
is negative the value is set at “0”63. Only positive leakage is accounted for. Leakage for upstream emissions and the load factor are monitored during project implementation. Leakage for congestion is not
monitored but estimated ex-ante for the project duration.
E.3.
The sum of E.1 and E.2 representing the project activity emissions:
Project Activity Emissions = Project Emissions + Leakage.
The total estimated project activity emissions over the crediting period are 1,065,749 tCO2eq.
E.4.
Estimated anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases of the baseline:
The methodology involves two main steps:
1. Determine emissions per passenger transported per vehicle category. This emission factor is calculated ex-ante project implementation including the usage of a fixed technology change factor.
The baseline emission factor is adapted to potential changes in trip distance and type of fuel used
62
The survey of passengers includes as categories passengers which in absence of the project would not have realized the trip.
63
If negative values are accounted for the sum of leakage emissions over the crediting period is 8,748 tCO2eq
page 56
by passenger cars if the surveys indicate that changes in trip distance or fuel type used would lead
to lower baseline emission factors.
2. Based on the passengers transported by the project and their modal split the total baseline emissions of the project are calculated ex-post. Core baseline parameters used for calculating the baseline emission factors are reviewed through an annual survey with changes only being applied if
the baseline emissions factors would be lower than the original factor to ensure a conservative
approach. Passenger numbers are recorded by the system operator.
1. Vehicle Categories
Relevant vehicle categories identified include:
¾ Public buses: A differentiation is made between small, medium sized and large buses64. For all subcategories diesel as well as gasoline buses are included. Less than 1% of all buses use CNG or LPG.
Thus only diesel and gasoline is included as fuel for buses. However less than 10% of all buses use
gasoline. The main fuel used is thus clearly diesel.
¾ Passenger cars: Only gasoline cars are included as they constitute more than 99% of fuel consumed
by passenger cars. Diesel as well as gas consumption is well below 1% of fuel consumed.65
¾ Taxis: Only gasoline is included as diesel constitutes only 2% of total fuel consumed and CNG less
than 5%.66 According to vehicle registries of STT 98% of taxis are based on gasoline, 1.9% are diesel
and the rest gas67. The difference between the two sources concerning gas fuelled vehicles is probably due to illegal conversions.
¾ Motorcycles are not included as they constitute in Bogotá less than 5% of passenger transport vehicles68 and often motorcycles are used by messengers which would not switch their mode of transport
to buses.
The baseline value of fuels used by passenger cars is thus gasoline. Annually the fuel-type of passenger
cars used by TransMilenio-users will be monitored. If diesel or gas-units will have a share of over 10%
(see significance level established in baseline methodology) or 0-emission vehicles have over 1% then the
baseline emission factor of passenger cars will be re-calculated. As diesel units in the case of Bogotá have
higher GHG emission factors per kilometre than gasoline units only a change to gas (CNG, LNG or LPG)
or to 0-emission vehicles is relevant (see Annex 3 for data) as only this change would lead to lower baseline emissions.
TransMilenio phase I is not included in the baseline as phase I does not compete but complement the
phases II to IV of TransMilenio leading to overall more passengers per trunk route. Phase I units are thus
not included in the baseline as the methodology is built upon calculating differentials between the project
and what it replaces.
Summarized following vehicle categories for the baseline are included:
• Diesel and gasoline small, medium and large buses
• Passenger cars based on 100% gasoline
• Taxis based on 100% gasoline
2. Emissions per Kilometre
64
Small < 20 passengers; medium 20-50 and large > 50 passengers
65
Source: Unidad de Planeación Minero Energético, Ministry of Mines and Energy, Determinación del Mercado
real de Combustibles, 2004
66
Source: see former footnote
67
Source: STT 7/2004
68
Source: STT, 2.2005
page 57
The CO2eq emissions per kilometre driven are calculated. This parameter indicates the vehicle efficiency.
Emissions per kilometer are calculated before project start and are fixed ex-ante for the project period.
2.1. Emissions per Kilometer of Passenger Cars and Taxis
Fuel consumption data for passenger cars is derived from a study realized 2004/5 based on on-road testing of vehicles in Santiago de Chile, Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires69. These cities are considered as comparable in size, congestion and vehicle types to Bogotá. In the case of Sao Paulo only vehicles using gasoline were taken into account excluding vehicles driving with ethanol.
The value taken is conservative for Bogotá due to the following factors:
• Bogotá has introduced later than any of these cities emission regulations and unleaded fuel. Only since
1997 electronic injected vehicles are used, while former models are carbureted with much higher fuel
consumption. The average age of passenger cars in Bogotá is 14 years indicating that still a large share
are carburetor based vehicles70.
• The average age of monitored vehicles in the three cities was 7 years. In Bogotá however the average
age of passenger cars is 14 years. According to the average annual default improvement rate of 1% this
would mean a 7% higher consumption in Bogotá than the average measured in the referenced cities.
• Bogotá is at an altitude of 2,650 msm and thus has the disadvantage of high-altitude which increases
fuel consumption. The cities included in the survey are between 0 and 750 msm and thus considerably
lower. The fuel consumption is sensitive to the altitude and thus the same vehicle population in Bogotá
has inter alia a higher consumption than the average of referenced cities reported in the survey.
• The average vehicle speed reported in the three cities was between 27 and 36km/h. Bogotá is in this
range with average vehicle speeds for passenger cars between 27 and 33km/h reported between 2002
and 200471.
The approach of using data from these proxy cities can thus be considered as conservative. For taxis as
well as passenger cars the same emission factors are applied. Cars do not differentiate substantially between the two groups. For details see Annex 3.
2.2. Emissions per Kilometer of Buses
For fuel consumption of buses no reliable database of currently operating vehicles exist. Fuel consumption data is thus derived from IPCC values selecting the one most appropriate for Bogotá. Procedures to
determine the adequate category of vehicles of the IPCC followed are:
• Determination of average age/vintage of small, medium and large buses per fuel type
• Determination of technology used (US or European)
• Determination of emission control technologies used as these are the factor used, next to age, to classify
the vehicles.
Based on these parameters for each bus size the average fuel efficiency is determined. The values can be
considered as conservative in light of the high altitude of Bogotá (2,650 msm), the poor maintenance
condition in which vehicles are (reflected in high emission values; see DAMA, 2005) and the competition
for passengers resulting in an aggressive and fuel consuming driving style. For details see Annex 3.
3. Emissions per Passenger Transported
69
ERPA/Environment Canada et.al., 2005
70
DAMA (Bogotá Environmental Authority), Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Revisión y Ajuste de la Norma
de Emisiones por Fuentes Móviles en la Ciudad de Bogotá, 2004
71
STT, 2005
page 58
3.1. Emissions per Passenger Transported for Passenger Cars and Taxis
This step results in emission factors showing the emissions per passenger per average trip for passenger
cars and for taxis. Average occupancy rates and average trip distance are used for both categories as this
data is available with good quality. For details see Annex 3.
3.2. Emissions per Passenger Transported for Buses
The approach here is based on total passengers transported and total kilometres driven using the same
data base (STT). The impact of vehicle driving restrictions, promotion of public transport, TransMilenio
phase I including scrappage of vehicles is included as the database used is the year 2002/0372. For details
see Annex 3.
3.3. Change of Trip Distance
The annual monitoring performed by the project records the average trip distances of passengers using
TransMilenio which would have used in absence of latter passenger cars or taxis73. If the trip distance
recorded annually is lower than the trip distance taken to calculate the baseline emission factor latter is
corrected according to the new distance. For ex-ante baseline emission calculations it is assumed that the
trip distance remains constant. However this factor is monitored through the project.
4. Technological Change
Technological improvement of vehicles can lead to reduced GHG emissions. The rate of improvement is
dependent on vehicle category and on the type of vehicle which clients finally choose (e.g. SUVs, small
cars, large cars). Replacement rates can vary over time and depend also on existing stocks. For simplicity
purposes an annual average improvement rate is used per vehicle category. The improvement rate is applied to each calendar year. The default technology improvement factors per vehicle category provided by
the baseline methodology are used. The factor IR is a constant.
5. Policy Effects
National, regional or local policies which have been legally adopted are included in the baseline. Data
used in the baseline includes the impact of these policies. National policies which have been enforced till
2006 and which have had an impact on transport are mainly:
¾ Bicycle promotion program including the construction of special bicycle lanes and promotion policies
for NMT (Non-Motorized Transport)
¾ Restrictions on using private cars and traffic restrictions in general especially downtown. The main
policy applied in this context is based on the vehicle plate numbers restricting the driving days. This
policy was implemented prior to 2002 and is included in the baseline calculations. The main potential
impact of such a policy is a modal shift towards public transport.
¾ Improved control of the number of illegal public transport vehicles to reduce the public transport supply.
¾ Public awareness campaign to promote NMT and the usage of public transport.
These policies have had an influence on the modal split. They were however already implemented before
2002 i.e. before the first part of Phase II started operations. The monitoring of passengers in the new
transport system is realized 2006 onwards i.e. when policies have already been in force quite some time.
72
All above mentioned policies were implemented prior to 2002
73
The other categories have 0 baseline emissions and are thus not included in baseline emissions. Public transport
i.e. buses are not included as the project monitors the load factor. In the short and medium term changes in the individual trip distance have no influence on routes and distances driven by buses.
page 59
People have thus already switched before if at all to public transport. The policies mentioned above and
their impact on the transport system are thus included already in the baseline.
According to the resolution 180687 dated June 17th 2003 Art. 5 gasoline shall be blended in Bogotá with
10% ethanol as per latest 27th of September of 200574. As per January 1st 2006 this policy has not been
implemented. According to EB 22 report Annex 3 “Clarifications on the consideration of national and/or
sectoral policies and circumstances in baseline scenarios (version 02)” this a national regulation that gives
comparative advantages to less emission-intensive technologies (type E- policy). According to Art. 7 of
the above mentioned document “National and/or sectoral policies or regulations under paragraph 6 (b)
(type E-policies) that have been implemented since the adoption by the COP of the CDM M&P (decision
17/CP.7, 11 November 2001) need not be taken into account in developing a baseline scenario (i.e. the
baseline scenario could refer to a hypothetical situation without the national and/or sectoral policies or
regulations being in place).” The regulation requiring blending with ethanol was issued after Nov 11th
2001 and the implementation deadline was 27th September 2005, well after 11.11.2001. In practice the
policy has not been implemented till 1.1.2006 (start of the crediting period of the proposed project). The
baseline fuel used by passenger cars and taxis is thus considered as unblended gasoline i.e. the baseline
fuel refers to a hypothetical situation without the national regulation being in place as clarified by the EB
22 Annex 375.
Monitoring is realized on a regular base for policies affecting parameters of the baseline including:
1. Assessment of new and enforced policies which affect to a significant manner the modal split of
passengers in the project area. As significant are considered policies which expect to change the
modal split by 5 percentage points or more based on their cumulative effect towards public transport. The expected modal split change is based on calculation or targets realized by the policy
proponents (i.e. the ministry or governmental authority in charge of the policy). If such a policy
has been enforced in year “y” no survey is realized and the modal split of the year “y-1” is applied to all passengers using the system. This ensures that the full effect of additional modal split
change is attributed to the policy. Typical policies in this context are restrictions on the usage of
private cars or policies changing the relative prices of transport modes e.g. through road tolls.
2. Assessment of new and enforced policies changing the fuel usage of vehicles (e.g. regulations
concerning maximum fuel usage).
3. Assessment of any other policy which might effect baseline parameters and include their cumulative effect in the new baseline parameters.
6. Determination of Total Baseline Emissions
The baseline emissions for all passengers transported by the project are calculated. A differentiation is
made according to the mode of transport, which the person would have used in absence of the project.
The total amount of passengers transported by the project is reported by the system operator.
The emissions of the baseline are thus calculated using the fixed baseline emission factor per vehicle
category determined ex-ante multiplied by the quantity of passengers that are transported using the project. Basically the difference of efficiency in transporting passengers by the project compared to the efficiency of transporting passengers in different modes in the baseline is measured. The number of passengers transported by each mode of transport is based on a survey which determines the share of passengers
which use this mode.
74
blending level.
75
See arguments applicability conditions
page 60
Details of the survey are in Annex 3.
ADAPTATION TO CHANGING TRIP DISTANCES
The average trip distance is a factor that in general changes over time. In most cities average trip distance
tends to increase. Projections of the planning department of Bogotá indicate that estimated average trips
in public transport are expected to increase from 8km in the year 2000 to 10.5 km in 2015 due to urban
growth and area zoning76. While the new public transport system in the medium-term can influence trip
distances e.g. over changing urban growth patterns, other factors tend to have a stronger impact on trip
distances. The project assumes that to a significant extent the average trip length is influenced by project
external factors which would have affected the baseline as well as the project equally. The impact of
longer trip distances in the short to medium term are no additional emissions in the public transport system as lines are not extended and the fuel usage of buses is nearly equal if the average occupancy rate is
higher than before77. Occupancy rates are measured through leakage by the project. Passenger car emissions would however rise. Baseline emissions thus increase with longer trip distances while project emissions would stay constant. Higher trip distances would thus lead to increased emission reductions. Using
a constant trip length is thus a conservative approach underestimating the emission benefits of the project.
For passenger cars and for taxis the project monitors the average trips distance of TransMilenio users
which in absence of latter would have used these modes of transport. If the registered and monitored distance traveled is shorter than the baseline distance then this factor is adjusted resulting in lower baseline
emissions. If the distance traveled from these modes of transport is however higher then no corresponding
change in the original baseline emissions are made i.e. the approach used is conservative in only adjusting
emission factors to shorter trip distances.
Induced travel is included in leakage calculations (induced travel passenger cars) as well as in the baseline (induced travel public transport). Induced traffic is thus accounted for when calculating the emission
reductions.
The projected mode distribution for the life-span of the project is based on the results of the survey for
various months. This data is monitored annually.
For specific calculations of baseline emissions see Annex 3. Total expected baseline emissions are
2,791,689 tCO2eq
E.5.
Difference between E.4 and E.3 representing the emission reductions of the project activity:
Total expected emission reductions of the project activity are 1,725,940 tCO2
A thorough sensitivity analysis of all parameters and data used for calculations has been made to assess
the robustness of results presented (see Annex 3 for details). Data used is proven to be robust.
E.6.
Year
2006
2007
76
Table providing values obtained when applying formulae above
Estimation of project
activity emissions
(tCO2eq)
56,179
79,391
Estimation of baseline
emissions (tCO2eq)
Estimation of
leakage (tCO2eq)
Estimation of emission
reductions (tCO2eq)
154,569
216,246
3,823
2,845
94,567
134,011
Republic of Colombia, National Planning Department, CONPES study 3093, 15.11.2000
77
Longer trip distances lead inter alia to higher average occupancy rates as more passengers are registered while
maintaining the same total distance driven of buses.
page 61
2008
135,685
365,885
0
2009
182,336
486,767
0
2010
182,336
481,900
845
2011
208,634
545,890
521
2012
208,634
540,431
4,521
Total
(tCO2eq)
1,053,194
2,791,689
12,555
Note: Negative leakage in years 2008 and 2009 is not accounted for (conservative measure).
Source: See Annex 3.
230,201
304,432
298,719
336,735
327,276
1,725,940
page 62
SECTION F. Environmental impacts
F.1.
Documentation on the analysis of the environmental impacts, including transboundary impacts:
The project complies with all legal requirements of the environmental legislation of Colombia, enforced
by the Department of Environmental Affairs (DAMA). It also complies with the social and environmental
guidelines issued by IDU (Instituto de Desarrollo Urbano) and the CAF. All environmental permits required have been granted.
Phase II and following of TransMilenio do not require an environmental licence (in contrast to phase I) as
TransMilenio is included in the “Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial, POT”78. For the construction of trunk
roads IDU has received a global environmental licence based on the Environmental Guidelines granted by
DAMA according to resolution 991 of 2001.
Based on the resolution 991 of 2001 IDU in cooperation with DAMA issued environmental guidelines79.
According to these guidelines trunk roads built for TransMilenio are classified as infrastructure with a
potentially significant environmental impact (category “C”80) and thus require an EIA (Environmental
Impact Assessment) and an Environmental Management Plan (EMP) from the contractor. The EIAs are
realized in segments of trunk roads according to assigned contracts. IDU issues for this purpose the requirements concerning the EIA and the contractor selected for the respective trunk road segment realizes
the EIA and proposes and implements an environmental management plan. The contractor must present a
program for the implementation of the EMP called PIPMA81. This document contains in detail the environmental action plan which the constructor will realize to comply with all the conditions specified in the
guidelines issued by IDU. He is also responsible for acquiring all required permits e.g. for cutting trees.
Based on the PIPMA checklists with indicators are established to supervision the correct execution of the
environmental management plan. Based on these checklists a supervision of the implementation of the
environmental management plan by the contractor is realized on a monthly base by IDU. The guidelines
of IDU establish the corrective actions and the consequences of non-attainment of environmental goals.
The global environmental licence of TransMilenio as included in the “Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial,
POT” is valid for all phases. For the construction of trunk roads IDU has received a global environmental
licence based on the Environmental Guidelines granted by DAMA according to resolution 991 of 2001.
For individual segments of trunk roads IDU will again demand EIA and environmental management
plans. However Phase III contracts for construction have not yet been awarded and phase IV has not yet
been designed in detail. As the constructor as first task has to perform an EIA latter are only realized after
contract award and therefore EIAs are not yet available for phase III and following.
For the operation of TransMilenio “Planes de Manejo Ambiental PMA” (environmental management
plans) need to be presented and approved by DAMA for each depot bus station at maximum 6 months
after starting operations82. Thereafter every semester a follow-up report has to be delivered to DAMA.
Phase II has three depot stations. “Patio de las Americas” has initiated operations 1.1.2006, “Patio de Sur”
has initiated operations April 15th 2006 and “Patio de Suba” April 29th 2006. El “Patio de las Americas”
has been granted all required permits. The other two depots are as of July 15th 2006 realizing their respective environmental management plan.
78
See Decree 1220 of April 21st, 2005 of the Ministry of Environment
79
IDU, Guia de Manejo Ambiental para el Desarrollo de Proyectos de Infraestructura urbana en el Distrito Central
80
See page 7 of guidelines
81
Programa de Implementacion del Plan de Manejo Ambiental
82
The bus stations include the parking lot for buses, the maintenance area as well as the operation of buses.
page 63
F.2.
If environmental impacts are considered significant by the project participants or the host
Party, please provide conclusions and all references to support documentation of an environmental
impact assessment undertaken in accordance with the procedures as required by the host Party:
The environmental impact of the project is considered highly positive. Following environmental impacts
are expected from Phase II to IV of TransMilenio:
¾ Reduction of around 7’000t of particle matter over the first crediting period. This is a significant share
of total particle matter in Bogotá. Particle emissions are one of the main responsible pollutants for respiratory diseases.
¾ Reduction of more than 50’000t of NOx over the first crediting period. NOx is next to NMHCs a precursor responsible for ground ozone formation.
¾ Reduction of more than 800 tons of sulphur dioxide over the first crediting period due to reduced fuel
consumption in the project versus baseline case of buses.
Reductions are calculated in a conservative manner. Additionally emission reductions occur due to a modal switch reducing the number of passenger cars and taxis circulating comparing the project with the
baseline. For details of calculations see Annex 3. The monitoring software designed for TransMilenio
also tracks the local environmental effects.
Transboundary air pollution is a particular problem for pollutants that are not easily destroyed or react in
the atmosphere to form secondary pollutants. Typical transboundary air pollutants are carbon monoxide,
PM10, non-methane VOCs83 and NOx (resulting potentially in ground-level ozone which again is a major
component of smog) or sulphur dioxide (SO2 together with NOx are primary precursors of acid rain). The
most important in the case of diesel based mass transport systems are PM10, NOx and sulphur dioxide.
The direct impact on transboundary air pollution is not estimated as no data is available on this part. It is
however clear that the project has a positive impact on a potential transboundary air pollution due to reduced emissions of air pollutants (PM, NOx, SO2 basically) due to the project and quantified above.
Next to less air pollution the project also has the environmental benefit of reduced noise pollution due to a
reduced amount of vehicles, an improved traffic fluidity with less stop-and-go traffic and more modern
units.
Phase II has realized for the construction phase all EIAs and environmental management plans as required
by the environmental guidelines established by IDU. All permits were granted and the implementation of
the environmental management plans were supervised by IDU. The potential impacts of the construction
are stated in the respective EIAs and the environmental management plans. They are dependent on the
respective segment of each trunk road for which an individual construction contract was signed with a
third party (EIAs and environmental management plans are made for each segment of a trunk road which
has been granted to a constructor). The complete list of all potential impacts are thus individually described in each EIA. The potential impacts are typical of road construction such as cutting trees, debris,
noise and air pollution during construction etc.
SECTION G. Stakeholders’ comments
G.1.
Brief description how comments by local stakeholders have been invited and compiled:
Main stakeholders identified include the general public, persons living near construction sites of trunk
routes and owners as well as drivers of existing (baseline) buses.
General Public
83
Volatile Organic Components
page 64
They are the users of the public transport system and the prime beneficiaries due to a reduced travel time,
less congestion (also relevant for users of private vehicles) and an improved air quality. TransMilenio
realizes through a professional company monthly customer satisfaction surveys. The quality of services
offered is thus monitored on a regular base and complaints of clients are received. Stakeholders and system users as well as the public in general can also realize complaints or remarks through the website of
TransMilenio84 or a phone hotline (number 195). The persons realizing a complaint receive a direct answer through the same mechanism as used for the complaint. An example of the involvement of the public in the development of TransMilenio is e.g. their participation in the determination of routes (see
Logitrans, 2003, Parte III Analisis de Solicitudes de la Communidad). Records of all complaints as well
as of follow-up measures are maintained by TransMilenio. Complaints concern e.g. excess of velocity,
full buses, delays etc. Monthly all complaints are categorized according to type of complaint and media
through which complaint has been made (e.g. written, hotline, Internet). Based on these reports corrective
measures are taken by TransMilenio.
During the period 2004/5 TransMilenio participated in 36 fairs realized in all communities of the District
of Bogotá attending questions of users concerning Phase II and informing about the expansion of
TransMilenio.
2005 TransMilenio received for instance more than 25’000 questions, comments or complaints realized
by 48% per phone and by 38% through e-mail/Internet. 46% of all interventions were complaints, 44%
requests for information and the rest suggestions on how to improve services.
Persons Living Near to Construction Sites
Persons living near to construction sites or sites where major bus-stations are built are potentially affected
by these activities. IDU has established near to construction sites focal points where the local community
can deposit their concerns. IDU maintains records of all complaints received as well as the actions taken
towards these complaints. These points allow for dissemination of information and to address concerns of
the community. The focal points also encourage the community to participate in workshops dealing with
topics such as public space management or environmental aspects. IDU in cooperation with DAMA issued environmental guidelines85. The guidelines include as part of the environmental management plan a
social management plan compulsory for contractors of trunk routes of TransMilenio 86. This plan shall
facilitate the participation of the community in the construction process (information and attend community requests basically), foster positive social impacts and mitigate negative ones. Strategies used include
the establishment of focal encounter points87 including their committee (leaders of the community), information points and a dissemination strategy. The guidelines issued by IDU detail activities and methodologies to be followed by the contractor, which, based on these guidelines proposes the social management plan. Checklists with indicators are established to ascertain the implementation of the social management plan. These are controlled on a monthly base by IDU.
Owners and Drivers of Baseline Buses
Owners and drivers of the existing (baseline) public transport system fear to suffer economic losses. The
strategy followed by TransMilenio to resolve this potential problem includes two components:
84
http://www.transmilenio.gov.co/transmilenio/frameset_gneral_us.htm
85
IDU, Guia de Manejo Ambiental para el Desarrollo de Proyectos de Infraestructura urbana en el Distrito Central
86
Component “B” of the PIPMA (Plan to implement the environmental management plan); see page 17 of guidelines
87
Puntos CREAs (Centro de Reunion, Encuentro y Atencion en obra)
¾
page 65
Inclusion of affected persons in the operation of TransMilenio: For TransMilenio phase II (in contrast to phase I) the bidding process was changed giving a significant incentive for owners of traditional public transport buses to participate in TransMilenio. While this had no weight in Phase I in
Phase II 200 out of 1’400 possible points were given according to the participation of individual bus
owners in the capital of the bidder. The result was that Phase II could attract a share-participation of
23% of former bus owners in the transport companies operating the trunk-routes of TransMilenio
(1’850 bus owners) and 31% in the feeder routes (4’985 former bus owners) thus including sucessfully a significant proportion of potentially affected stakeholders88.
Financial compensation: The scrappage program pays gives a financial incentive for bus owners for
their vehicle. To attract buses this financial incentive needs to be higher than the residual market
value of the vehicle. Due to the scrappage program bus owners thus receive a financial compensation
which allows them the opportunity to invest in a new business venture. Around 50% of participants
in the round-tables indicated that they would be interested in entering other business fields instead of
transport89.
¾
For new phases Bogotá organized various roundtable meetings with small and micro transport enterprises
owners of one or few buses with the objective of democratizing the system i.e. including more small enterprises in TransMilenio.
Additionally the District of Bogotá realized May 9th 2006, 5 roundtable meetings with stakeholders of
phase II and III of TransMilenio. These meetings are continued (in a weekly manner) to encounter acceptable solutions for Phase III. All important associations grouping individual bus-owners take part in
these round-tables.
G.2. Summary of the comments received:
“Market de Colombia” realizes the monthly customer surveys on behalf of TransMilenio. They also make
a summary report of comments received. A complete list of all monthly complaints is available. The
evaluation is consolidated in a general service index.
Complaints of bus owners refer basically to their non-inclusion in phase I of TransMilenio as the bid
structure favoured implicitly large and well organized companies.
Phase II has realized for the construction part a social management plans as required by the environmental
guidelines established by IDU for all segments of all trunk roads. The implementation of latter was controlled on a monthly base by IDU following the pre-established checklists. Comments considering trunk
road constructions are diverse and include information requests, access to roads, traffic caused etc.
G.3.
Report on how due account was taken of any comments received:
“Market de Colombia” realizes the monthly customer surveys on behalf of TransMilenio. They also make
a summary report of comments received. The evaluation is consolidated in a general service index. Persons depositing complaints, remarks or questions receive a direct feedback from TransMilenio relying on
the same communication channel (e.g. mail, phone) as used by the person depositing a claim. The
monthly service record is fed into the quality assurance program of TransMilenio leading to a continuous
improvement of services offered. TransMilenio has a service improvement plan which is based on the
evaluation reports mentioned above. Aspects included concern both infrastructure as well as operational
issues. Also dialogue meetings with involved stakeholders have been strengthened. Possible outcomes are
e.g. an increase of bus frequency, improved maintenance etc. Outcomes of meetings are posted on the
website of TransMilenio www.transmilenio.gov.co
88
89
TransMilenio, 6/2006
page 66
The remarks received from people living near to construction sites were followed-up and integrated by
IDU. Records of all requests and complaints per trunk road segment as well as the respective corrective
action are documented by IDU. All comments received at CREAs are documented including name and
contact details of person realizing the request, date, request itself, classification of request, date and contents of response to the request as well as corrective actions taken. One of the elements to improve stakeholder acceptance was to employ basically persons from the neighbourhood in the construction activities.
More than 30% of qualified and nearly 70% of unqualified staff was employed in Phase II from the
neighbouring communities90.
The results of the roundtables and the discussions with bus owners resulted in significant changes in the
way how small enterprises participate in phases II and following of TransMilenio. This was achieved by
changing the public bid structure and points given to participating companies. The share of small enterprises could be increased drastically through this measure thus showing clearly the positive response of
TransMilenio to criticism of the conventional transport sector.
90
Source: TransMilenio Informe 82: Cuadro consolidado de generación de empleo
page 67
Annex 1
CONTACT INFORMATION ON PARTICIPANTS IN THE PROJECT ACTIVITY
Project Host
Organization:
Empresa Distrital de Transporte del Tercer Milenio TRANSMILENIO S.A.
Street/P.O.Box:
Av. El Dorado 66-63
Building:
Antiguo Edificio de la Energía
City:
Bogotá D.C.
State/Region:
Distrito Capital
Postfix/ZIP:
Country:
Colombia
Telephone:
57 1 2203000
FAX:
57 1 2203000
E-Mail:
[email protected]
URL:
www.transmilenio.gov.co
Represented by:
Title:
Director
Salutation:
Mr
Last Name:
Roa
Middle Name:
First Name:
Raúl
Department:
Transport Planing Department
Mobile:
57 310 2148347
Direct FAX:
57 1 3249870
Direct tel:
57 1 2203000 Ext. 1702
Personal E-Mail:
[email protected]
Project Developer responsible for the CDM project activity
Organization:
Corporación Andina de Fomento CAF
Street/P.O.Box:
Av. Luis Roche, Altamira
Building:
Torre CAF
City:
Caracas
State/Region:
Distrito Federal
Postfix/ZIP:
69011
Country:
Venezuela
Telephone:
58 212 2092407
FAX:
58 212 2092406
E-Mail:
[email protected]
URL:
www.caf.com
Represented by:
Title:
Senior executive
Salutation:
Ms
Last Name:
Torres
Middle Name:
First Name:
Mary
Department:
Environment Department
Mobile:
58 212 2092407
Direct FAX:
58 212 2092406
Direct tel:
58 212 2092407
Personal E-Mail:
[email protected]
Project Sponsor
Organization:
Street/P.O.Box:
Building:
City:
State/Region:
Postfix/ZIP:
Country:
Telephone:
FAX:
E-Mail:
URL:
Represented by:
Title:
Salutation:
Last Name:
Middle Name:
First Name:
Department:
Mobile:
Direct FAX:
Direct tel:
Personal E-Mail:
page 68
Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment (VROM)
PO Box 30945
Den Haag
2500 GX
The Netherlands
+ 31 70 3394693
+ 31 70 3391306
www.minvrom.nl
Head of Clean Development Mechanism Division
Mr
De Jonge
Lex
Directorate General for Environmental Protection
+ 31 70 3391306
+ 31 70 3394693
[email protected]
page 69
Annex 2
INFORMATION REGARDING PUBLIC FUNDING
There is no Official Development Assistance in this project and the project will not receive any public
funding from Parties included in Annex I. Funding is from the national and the district government
through budgetary allocations and does not include any official development assistance and is not counted
towards the financial obligations of Annex 1 parties. Credits used by institutions such as the World Bank
or the CAF are not concessionary and have no ODA components.
Annex 3
Contents:
A.3.1.
A.3.2.
A.3.3.
A.3.4.
A.3.5.
A.3.6.
A.3.7.
A.3.8.
A.3.9.
A.3.10.
A.3.11.
A.3.12.
A.3.13.
A.3.14.
A.3.15.
A.3.16.
Project Emissions
Upstream Construction Emissions
Upstream Emissions due to Early Retirement (Scrapping)
Upstream Emissions from Fuel Saved
Total Upstream Leakage
Details of Load Factor Study Buses
Details of Load Factor Study Taxis
Leakage Emissions due to Reduced Congestion (rebound effect and vehicle speed change)
Total Leakage Emissions
Baseline Emissions Passenger Cars and Taxis
Baseline Emissions Buses
Total Baseline Emissions
Details of Survey to Identify Mode of Transport
Sensitivity Analysis
Local Environmental Impact
Literature Used
A.3.1. Project Emissions
Formula (A1)
PE y = TC y × (EFCO 2, D + EFCH 4, D + EFN 2O , D )
Where:
PEy
TCy
EFCO2,D
EFCH4,D
EFN2O,D
Total consumption of fuel (diesel) in liters for project for year “y“
CO2 emission factor per liter diesel
CH4 emission factor per liter diesel (based on GWP)
N2O emission factor per liter diesel (based on GWP)
Formula (A2)
TC y = (TCTB , y + TC FB , y )×
Where:
TCy
TCTB,y
TCFB,y
PPJ,y
PTM,T,y
PPJ , y
PTM ,T , y
Total consumption of fuel of trunk buses in liters for project for year “y“
Total consumption of fuel of feeder buses in liters for project for year “y“
Passengers transported by the project for the year “y”
Formula (A3)
PPJ , y = PTM ,T , y − PTM , I , y
Where:
PPJ,y
PTM,T,y
PTM,I,y
Passengers transported by TransMilenio Phase I for the year “y”
All buses are using diesel fuel. Buses used are all large units.
The default emissions factors are taken from the baseline methodology based on large diesel buses (Appendix A, Table A.1.).
For calculation purposes ex-ante formulaes (A4) and (A5) are used. During monitoring the actual fuel
consumed will be used.
Formula (A4)
TC j , y = SEC j × DD j , y
where:
TCj,y
SECj
DDj,y
Total consumption of fuel in liters for bus type “j” in year “y“ where “j” incude trunk and
feeder buses
Specific fuel consumption of diesel in liters for bus type “j”
Distance driven for bus type “j” in year “y”
Formula (A5)
DD j , y =
Where:
DDj,,y
IPKj
PPJ,y
PPJ , y
IPK j
Distance driven for bus type “j” in year “y”
Index Passenger-Kilometer for bus type “j” (IPK=passenger/km)
Table A.3.1.1. Data Used for Project Emissions
Abbreviation Description
Value
SECTB
Specific fuel con61.1
sumption trunk
buses
Unit
l/100km
Source
TransMilenio,
2006
SECFB
Specific fuel consumption feeder
buses
37.8
l/100km
TransMilenio,
2006
EFCO2,D
Emission factor per
liter of diesel fuel
resulting from CO2
2,661
gr CO2eq/l
IPCC, 1996
EFCH4,D
Emission factor per
resulting from CH4
2
gr CO2eq/l
IPCC, 1996
EFN2O,D
Emission factor per
resulting from N2O
21
gr CO2eq/l
IPCC, 1996
IPKTB
IPK of trunk buses
5.4
IPKFB
IPK of feeder buses
13.1
Passengers/km
Passengers/km
TransMilenio,
2006
TransMilenio,
2006
PPJ,y
Number of passengers project
(TrasnMilenio phase
II-IV)
See below
Passengers
TransMilenio,
12/2005
Comments
Data of fuel consumption reported by all
trunk route operators 15, 2006
Data of fuel consumption reported by all
feeder route operators
1-5, 2006
Default parameter baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.1.
large diesel buses
large diesel buses
large diesel buses
Average value 20012005
Data of all passengers
and kilometers driven
of all feeder route operators 1-5, 2006
Based on planning
forecasts by
TransMilenio based on
entry of new trunk
routes; for 2006 adjustment to forecast
based on monitored
passengers Jan-May
2006 (lower than forecast due to late entry of
buses and some parts of
trunk routes)
Results (values expressed as results are always based on exact values – differences to data in tables are
based on rounding):
Table A.3.1.2 Results
Million passengers project
Million km trunk buses
Million km feeder buses
Million liters of diesel used
Total project emissions
tCO2eq
2006
147
27
11
21
2007
208
39
16
30
2008
356
66
27
51
2009
478
89
37
68
2010
478
89
37
68
2011
547
101
42
78
2012
547
101
42
78
total
2,763
512
211
392
56,179
79,391
135,685
182,336
182,336
208,634
208,634
1,053,194
Total in 7 years: 1,053,194 tCO2eq
A.3.2. Upstream Construction Emissions
Formula (A6)
LE CON , y =
CEM × EFCEM × DTCEM + ASP × EFASP × DT ASP
Y
Where:
LECON,y
CEM
ASP
EFCEM
EFASP
DTCEM
DTASP
Y
Cement used per kilometre of trunk lane
Asphalt used per kilometre of trunk lane
Specific emissions factor for cement
Specific emissions factor for asphalt
Total kilometres of trunk lanes built in project made of cement (km * number of trunk lanes)
Total kilometres of trunk lanes built in project made of asphalt (km * number of trunk lanes)
Table A.3.2.1. Data Used for Leakage Construction Emissions
Value
Unit
CEM
Cement used per km 1,338
t/km
of trunk lane
Source
IDU, 2005
EFCEM
Emission factor for
cement
0.99
tCO2eq/tcement
IPCC and
WBCSD
DTCEM
Kilometers of trunk
lanes built
See below
km
IDU, 2005
Comments
Data is monitored annually. Current value is
based on records of
2003/4
Based on default value
in baseline methodology
Appendix A, leakage
parameter 1
Each lane is counted91
No asphalt has been used in phase II. It is not planned to use asphalt in phases III and IV.
Table A.3.2.2 Results
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
km of trunk lanes (cumulative)
95
120
158
184
202
219
Emissions tCO2eq (annualized) 17,901
22,670
29,842
34,875
38,130
41,385
Emissions are annualized based on a 7 year crediting period (cumulative emissions / 7)
2012
total
236
44,621
236
229,424
Values expressed as results are always based on exact values – differences to data in tables are based on
rounding.
Total in 7 years: 229,424 tCO2eq
91
E.g. Americas has 4 lanes, while NQS has 2 lanes. The distance of the lanes is thus not equivalent to the distance
of trunk routes as latter are counted independent of the number of lanes
A.3.3. Upstream Emissions Due to Early Retirement (Scrapping)
Formula (A7)
y
LE LSP , y =
Where:
LELSP,y
BSCRw
EFBM
BABL
BAPJ
Y
∑ BSCR
w =1
w
× EFBM ×
BABL − BAPJ
BABL
Y
Bus units scrapped by project in the year “w”, where w = 1 to “y”
Emissions factor for bus manufacturing
Average age BAU when buses are replaced /retired in the baseline scenario
Average bus age of scrapped buses under the project activity
Table A.3.3.1. Data Used for Leakage Scrappage Emissions
Abbreviation
Description
Value
Unit
BSCR
Buses scrapped by
7.7 units
Buses
project
per trunk
route bus
Source
TransMilenio
EFBM
Emission factor for
bus manufacturing
42
tCO2eq/bus
SAEFL
BABL
Average replacement
age baseline scenario
40
Years
STT, Logitrans,
Table 3, 2004
BAPJ
Age of scrapped
buses under project
activity
See below
Years
See below for
calculation
Comments
Data is monitored annually.
Ex-ante values are based on
bidding documents and the
number of trunk buses (see
NTB)
Based on default value in
baseline methodology Appendix A, leakage parameters, number 3
Data until 2003 i.e. before
phase II entered into operation (see table below)
Monitored; for calculation
purposes the latest buses are
replaced in a cumulative
manner (see table below)
The number of trunk buses entering is determined based on the total distanced driven trunk buses and the
average distance driven per unit (80,898 km per annum based on data of all trunk buses 1-5, 2006,
TransMilenio 2006)
Table A.3.3.2. Results
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
total
Trunk buses entering
330
136
331
274
0
155
0
1,226
Buses to be scrapped
2,542
1,050
2,547
2,111
0
1,190
0
9,441
92
Age of scrapped buses
36
32
30
28
n.a.
28
n.a.
Annual emissions in
1,525
2,786
6,606
10,406
10,406
12,548
12,548
56,826
tCO2eq
- Average age of scrapped buses based on retiring the eldest vehicles per year. The average vintage is determined by
the 50percentile.
92
Based on eliminating in a cumulative manner the buses listed in table A.3.3.3. beginning from the eldest
Table A.3.3.3. Age Distribution of Buses in Bogotá (year 2004)
Year
Units
Units cu% cumulaYear
mulative
tive
Prior 1960
106
106
1%
1982
1960
46
152
1%
1983
1984
1961
60
212
1%
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
55
26
20
69
21
90
242
157
233
420
536
232
335
621
722
531
496
735
724
894
267
293
313
382
403
493
735
892
1125
1545
2081
2313
2648
3269
3991
4522
5018
5753
6477
7371
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
3%
4%
4%
6%
8%
9%
10%
12%
15%
17%
19%
22%
25%
28%
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
units
830
507
Units cumulative
8201
8708
% cumulative
31%
33%
667
273
180
120
194
522
672
1046
1550
2809
1533
1241
686
812
923
491
1178
1290
1299
314
9375
9648
9828
9948
10,142
10,664
11,336
12,382
13,932
16,741
18,274
19,515
20,201
21,013
21,936
22,427
23,605
24,895
26,194
26,508
35%
37%
37%
38%
38%
40%
43%
47%
53%
63%
69%
74%
76%
79%
83%
85%
89%
94%
99%
100%
Source: STT based on vehicle registry data, 2004 (Logitrans-study), Table 3; cumulative by Grütter
>99% of buses are younger than 1962; thus replacement age: 40 years (this is a conservative value as the
higher the retirement age the higher the calculated scrappage emissions)
A.3.4. Upstream Emissions from Fuel Saved
Formula (A8)
LEUFP , y = (PE y − BE y )× UEF
Where:
LEUFP,y
PEy
BEy
UEF
Emission leakage due to upstream fuel production emissions in year “y”
Upstream emissions multiplier, based on default factor
Table A.3.4.1. Data Used for Leakage Upstream Emissions from Fuel Saved
Abbreviation
Description
Value
Unit
Source
UEF
Default factor for
14%
percentL-Bupstream emissions
age
Systemtechnik
from fuel production
GmbH, 2002
2006
ER in tCO2eq
98,389
LEUFP tCO2eq -13,775
2007
136,856
-19,160
2008
230,201
-32,228
2009
304,432
-42,620
2010
299,564
-41,939
2011
337,256
-47,216
Comments
baseline methodology
Appendix A, baseline
and project emissions
parameters number 5
2012
331,797
-46,452
total
1,738,495
-243,389
Values expressed as results are always based on exact values – differences to data in tables are based on
rounding.
Total in 7 years: -243,389 tCO2eq
A.3.5. Total Upstream Leakage
Formula (A9)
LEUP , y = LE CON , y + LE LSP , y + LEUFP , y
Where:
LEUP,y
LECON,y
LELSP,y
LEUFP,y
Emission leakage due to upstream emissions from fuel production in year “y”
Construction emissions in tCO2eq
Scrapping emissions in tCO2eq
Upstream fuel emissions in tCO2eq
Total upstream emissions in
tCO2eq
2006
17,901
1,525
-13,775
2007
22,670
2,786
-19,160
2008
29,842
6,606
-32,228
2009
34,875
10,406
-42,620
2010
38,130
10,406
-41,939
2011
41,385
12,548
-47,216
2012
44,621
12,548
-46,452
total
229,424
56,826
-243,389
5,652
6,296
4,220
2,661
6,597
6,717
10,717
42,861
A.3.6. Leakage due to Changing Load Factor of Baseline Buses
Formula (A10)
⎛ ROC Z , y
LE LF , Z , y = EFKM , Z , y × VDZ × N Z , y × ⎜⎜1 −
ROC Z ,0
⎝
Where:
LELF,Z,y
EFKM, Z,y
VDZ
NZ,y
ROCZ, y
ROCZ,0
⎞
⎟
⎟
⎠
Emissions Leakage from change of load factor in buses baseline in year “y”
Emissions per kilometer of buses baseline for the year “y”
Number of buses in the conventional transport system operating in year “y”
Average occupancy rate relative to capacity of conventional buses in year “y”, based on the
most recent study of occupancy rates
Average occupancy rate relative to capacity of buses baseline before start of project
Note:
If ROCZ,0 - ROCZ, y ≤ 0.1 then LELF,Z,y = 0
Formula (A11):
VDZ =
∑ DD
∑N
k =S ,M ,L
k = S ,M , L
where:
VDZ
DDZ,k
NZZ,k
Z ,k
Z ,k
Total distance driven by buses baseline of size “k”
Number of buses baseline of size “k”
Table A.3.6.1. Data Used for Leakage Change of Load Factor Baseline Buses
Abbreviation
Description
Value
Unit
Source
ROCZ,0
Average occupancy
66%
percentLogitrans,
rate baseline buses
age
2003, page 20
before project start
DDZ,K
Total distance driven
1,589
Million
STT, 2003baseline buses before
kilometers 2005
project start per year
NZ,k
Total number of baseline buses before project start
26,508
buses
Comments
Based on average distance driven per bus size
(S,M,L) recorded 2/04,
8/04 and 2/05 multiplied
with the average number
of buses per category
STT cited in
Logitrans,
2003, table 4
Results
VDZ =
1,589,281,122
= 59,955km
26,508
Details of Load Factor Study Buses
The study to determine the occupancy rate of buses is realized minimum in 2008, 2011 and 2015. The
methodology follows the methodology used by Logitrans, 2003 (contrato PNUD COL/01/23, Análisis de
Corredores, Logitrans 2003; page 16ff). The points of measurement will change as areas are monitored
where the traditional bus system continues operating. The methodology used however will be the same to
ensure consistency and comparability of results (see guidelines below). The TORs when contracting the
load studies will specify that the company has to use the same methodology.
If the load factor reduces less than 10 percentage points no leakage is included. If the load factor reduces
by more than 10 percentage points relative to the measurement before project start (benchmark) then
leakage is calculated and included. In this case the amount of leakage is the cumulative sum of all years
since the last load factor survey was realized, assuming that the reduction of the load factor occurred immediately since the last survey. This is a conservative approach even if monitoring is not realized annually (to reduce costs).
The load factor survey must follow the methodology used by Logitrans, 2003 (see document referenced
above). The load factor survey is based on a “Visual Occupation Study”. The visual occupation method
provides an estimation of the number of passengers inside a bus without actually counting them, by comparing the level of occupation exhibited by the bus with a given table previously determined in terms of
fractions of the vehicle capacity.
Core features to be followed in the load factor study are (see Logitrans study referenced):
1. 6 occupation categories are defined: A: nearly empty, B: some seated passengers; C: All passengers
seated, D: some passengers standing, E: bus is full, F: passengers in front of registration (overloaded)
2. The number of passengers corresponding to each vehicle category and type of service is defined.
3. Formats for field study are prepared
4. Field data collectors are trained
5. Locations, days and times for field study are defined. Points are strategically located to cover all the
routes with the minimum of points. Suggested days are Tuesday to Thursday, avoiding days immediately after or before a holiday. Atypical seasons (school or university vacations) should be avoided.
6. Data for the master stations should cover the period from 5.00AM to 23.00PM
7. Field data is collected. Coverage of the occupation counts should be higher than 95% of the number
of buses that cross the check point. 100% coverage is desired. To control this outcome a separate vehicle count is advised. Data can be adjusted with the actual count.
8. Data is digitized and its quality is controlled. In case of mistakes in data collection counts should be
repeated.
9. The total number of vehicles, number of available spaces (vehicle capacity) and the total number of
passengers is reported.
10. Occupation is the number of passengers divided by the vehicle capacity.
11. The average load factor is equal to the average load factor of each route multiplied by the total number of passengers in the route, divided by the total passengers in the network.
A.3.7. Leakage due to Changing Load Factor of Taxis
Formula (A12):
⎛ OCT , y
LE LF ,T , y = EFKM ,T , y × VDT × N T , y × ⎜⎜1 −
⎝ OCT ,0
Where:
LELF,T,y
EFKM,T, y
VDT
NT,y
OCT,y
OCT,0
⎞
⎟
⎟
⎠
Emissions leakage from change of load factor in taxis baseline in year “y”
Emissions per kilometer of taxis baseline for the year “y”
Number of taxis operating in year “y”
Average occupancy rate of taxi for the year “y” (passengers only)
Average occupancy rate of taxi before project start (passengers only)
note:
If OCT,0 - OCT,y ≤ 0.1 then LELF,T,y = 0
Only circulating taxis are counted. Taxis without passenger are counted as “0” occupancy rate.
Formula (A13):
VDT =
Where:
VDT
TT
TDT
D
NT
TT × TDT × D
NT
Trips per day for all taxis before project starts
Average distance pr trip before projects starts
number of working days of taxis (303; set equivalent to TransMilenio)
Number of taxis operating before project starts
Table A.3.7.1. Data Used for Leakage Change of Load Factor Taxis
Abbreviation
Description
Value
Unit
Source
OCT,0
Average occupancy
passen0.8193
STT 2002,
rate taxis before progers
OFICIO-STject start
07-04-7541-05
TT
TDT
NT
Trips per day taxis
Average distance per
trip taxis
Number of taxis
982,224
7
Trips
Kilometer
STT, 2003
STT, 2003
36,579
Taxis
Universidad
Nacional de
Colombia,
2004
Comments
Data before start phase II
of TransMilenio (2003)
93
Based on data from the percentage of occupied taxies STT of the year 2002 (54%) used in a study realized by the
Universidad Nacional de Colombia (“Evaluación y Caracterización del parque automotor de transporte público individual y colectivo en Bogotá D.C y confrontación con la flota necesaria para satisfacer la demanda actual de viajes en este modo, Martha Patricia Ibáñez Pérez –Trabajo de grado – Especialización en transporte – 2004”) multiplied with the average number of passengers per trip estimated in JICA 1996 (1.5 passengers).
Results
VDT =
982,224 × 7 × 303
= 56,953km
36,579
Details of Load Factor Study Taxis
The actual number of passengers excluding the driver of taxis is counted in a given point within a given
time period. The counting is based on visual occupation. The driver is not counted.
If the load factor reduces less than 0.1 points no leakage is included. If the load factor reduces by more
than 0.1 points relative to the measurement before project start (benchmark) then leakage is calculated
and included. In this case the amount of leakage is the cumulative sum of all years since the last load factor survey was realized, assuming that the reduction of the load factor occurred immediately since the last
survey. This is a conservative approach even if monitoring is not realized annually (to reduce costs).
Procedures to establish visual occupation:
1. Locations, days and times for field study are defined. Suggested days are Tuesday to Thursday,
avoiding days immediately after or before a holiday. Atypical seasons (school or university vacations) should be avoided. Locations used in the former study are outside bus stations. Equivalent
locations should be taken.
2. Field data is collected. Coverage of the occupation counts should be higher than 95% of the
number of taxis that cross the check point. 100% coverage is desired. To control this outcome a
separate vehicle count is advised. Data can be adjusted with the actual count.
3. Data is digitized and its quality is controlled. In case of mistakes in data collection counts should
be repeated.
4. Occupation is the number of passengers using the taxi. The driver is not counted. Taxis without
passengers are counted as 0 occupation. Categories of occupation are 1,2,3 and 4 or more passengers.
5. The total number of taxis and the total number of passengers is reported. The average occupation
rate of taxis is the total number of passengers divided by the total number of taxis in which counts
were performed.
6. The study is realized in different locations of the city during minimum 5 days. The times used in
the cited study are the morning peak hours. The same hours should be used in future studies.
7. Important clarification: The data of STT (also used by the Universidad Nacional) only refers to
“occupied” or “not-occupied” taxis. This does not reflect the number of passengers per taxi (load
factor). The value of the above mentioned study for this effect has been multiplied by the factor
1.5. This is the average number of passengers per occupied taxi registered by JICA.
A.3.8. Leakage Emissions due to Reduced Congestion (rebound effect and vehicle speed change)
Formula (A14)
LE CONG , y = LETRIPS , y + LE SP , y
where:
LECONG,y
LETRIPS,y
LESP,y
Emissions leakage from reduced congestion in year “y”
Emissions leakage from additional and/or longer trips in year “y”
Emissions leakage from change in vehicle speed in year “y”
LECONG is calculated ex-ante and fixed for the crediting period.
Formula (A15)
LETRIPS , y = ITR × ARS y × TDC × EFKM ,C × TRC × D
where:
LETRIPS,y
ITR
ARSy
TRC
TDC
EFKM,C
D
Emission leakage from additional and/or longer trips in the year “y”
Elasticity factor additional and/or longer trips: the factor is set at 0.1
Average trip distance for passenger cars
Emission factor per distance of passenger cars before project start
number of days buses operate per year (303 days, constant number for all crediting years94)
Formula (A16)
ARS y =
where:
ARSy
BSCRw
NZ
SRS
RSB
RSPy
⎤ RSB − RSPy
⎡ BSCRw
× SRS ⎥ −
⎢
RSB
NZ
w=1... y ⎣
⎦
∑
Bus units scrapped by project in the year “w” where “w” = 1 to “y” (cumulative)
Number of buses in use in baseline
Share of road space used by public transport in the baseline (in percentage)
Total available road space in the project project in the year “y” (= RSB minus kilometre of
lanes that were reduced due to dedicated bus lanes)
Formula (A17)
RSR = RSB − RSP
Where:
RSR
Road space reduced by project
RSB
RSP
Total available road space in the project
Formula (A18)
94
Based on operational days of TransMilenio which is considered as identical to conventional bus services
[
]
LE SP , y = TRC × TDC × EFKM ,VPJ ,C , y − EFKM ,VBL ,C × DW
where:
LESP,y
TRC
TDC
EFKM,VPJ,C,y
EFKM,VBL,C
DW
Emission leakage from change in vehicle speed in the year “y”
Average trip distance driven by passenger cars
Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars at project speed in the year “y”
Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars at baseline speed
number of days per year (taken as constant 365 for all years of the crediting period)
The vehicle speed project is calculated based on the additional road space available for passenger cars.
Formula (A19)
EFKM ,V ,C = 135.44 − 2.314 × V + 0.0144 × V 2
Where:
EFKM,V,C
V
Emissions factor per distance for passenger cars traveling at speed V (VBL speed baseline;
VPJ speed project)
Vehicle speed; calculated both for the project speed (VPJ) and the baseline speed baseline
(VBL); VPJ is calculated annually
Table A.3.8.1. Data Used for Leakage due to Reduced Congestion
Abbreviation
Description
Value
Unit
Source
ITR
Elasticity factor due
0.1
None
Litman T., 2004
to less congestion
(rebound effect)
BSCR
See below
Buses
TransMilenio
26,508
Buses
STT, Logitrans,
Table 4, 2004
Share of road space
used by public transport
Road space baseline
Road spaced reduced
by project
27%
Percentage
CEPAL, 2002
1,310
See below
Kilometers
Kilometers
STT, 2003
IDU, 2005
TRC
Number of daily trips
realized by passenger
cars
1,592,169
Trips
TDC
Average trip distance
passenger cars
9
Kilometers
Steer Davies
Gleave, 1999,
Vol 1, chapter 4,
table 4.1.
Steer Davies
Gleave, 2005
and STT 2005
NZ
SRS
RSB
RSR
Buses scrapped by
project (cumulative)
Number of buses
baseline
Comments
baseline methodology
Appendix A, leakage
parameters, number 5
See Table A.3.3.2.
Data until 2003 i.e. before phase II entered into
operation (total matriculated fleet)
Based on Steers Davies
Gleave, 2000
2 lanes always
Kilometers are trunk
roads and not lanes
(based on 2 lanes; equal
to RSB)95
Before start of phase II
Based on trip duration
and speed of passenger
cars of 2002 i.e. before
project was operational;
95
E.g. Americas has 4 lanes, while NQS has 2 lanes. The distance of the lanes is thus not equivalent to the distance
of trunk routes as latter are counted independent of the number of lanes
This value is monitored
annually
EFKMC
VBL
See A.3.10
Average speed cars
baseline
VPJ
Average speed cars
project
33
km/h
STT, 2004
See below
km/h
Authors calculation
Data for the year 2003;
before operation of phase
II but after implementation of driving restrictions
Calculation of VPJ
Assumptions:
1. The vehicle speed is in relation to the number of vehicles circulating respectively road space
used.
2. The relative change of speed observed before and after the introduction of vehicle drive restrictions is put into relation with the additional road space available. The same factor is thereafter
used to project the vehicle speed with the project.
Steps:
1. Vehicle speed before introduction of driving restrictions “pico y placa” (2001) V2001 = 26.9 km/h
(source STT, 2005, based on measurements in the year 2001 in 18 roads before introduction of
“pico y placa”)
2. Vehicle speed after introducing driving restrictions (average 2003) V2003 = 32.7 km/h (source
STT, 2005)
3. Road space used by passenger cars SRSC: 64% (source CEPAL, 2002)
4. Driving restrictions DR = 40% (4 license plates per day; source STT)
5. Percentage of buses retired (buses scrapped/total buses) BR calculated annually
6. Road space used by buses SRS: 27%
Formula to calculate VPJ: Formula (A20)
V PJ , y = VBL +
Where:
VPJ,y
VBL
V2003
V2001
SRSC
SRS
BSCRy
Nz
BSCR y
V2003 − V2001
×
SRS c × DR N z × SRS
Vehicle speed project in the year “y”
Vehicle speed baseline
Vehicle speed in the year 2003 after introducing driving restrictions (see above)
Vehicle speed in the year 200 before introducing driving restrictions (see above)
share of road space used by passenger cars baseline (see above)
share of road space used by buses baseline
Buses scrapped by project in the year “y” (cumulative)
Number of buses baseline
Results (values expressed as results are always based on exact values – differences to data in tables are
based on rounding):
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
total
Road space quit cumulative (km)
Units scrapped cumulative
ARS (%)
VPJ (km/h)
Leakage rebound effect in tCO2eq
Leakage speed effect in tCO2eq
Total leakage effect congestion tCO2eq
8
2,542
2.0%
2,355
33.3
-4,184
-1,829
21
3,592
2.1%
2,447
33.5
-5,898
-3,451
26
6,140
4.3%
5,081
34.1
-10,018
-4,937
26
8,251
6.4%
7,640
34.6
-13,392
-5,752
26
8,251
6.4%
7,640
34.6
-13,392
-5,752
26
9,441
7.6%
9,083
34.9
-15,279
-6,196
26
9,441
7.6%
9,083
34.9
-15,279
-6,196
43,328
-77,441
-34,113
Total in 7 years: - 34,113 tCO2eq
A.3.9. Total Leakage Emissions
Leakage upstream in tCO2eq
Leakage load factor in tCO2eq
Leakage congestion in
tCO2eq
Total leakage in tCO2eq
2006
5,652
2007
6,296
2008
4,220
2009
2,661
2010
6,597
2011
6,717
2012
10,717
total
42,861
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1,829
3,823
-3,451
2,845
-4,937
0
-5,752
0
-5,752
845
-6,196
521
-6,196
4,521
-34,113
12,555
In years with negative leakage the total is set at “0” to not account for negative leakage (this is the case in
years 2008 and 2009).
A.3.10. Baseline Emissions Passenger Cars and Taxis
Formula (A21)
EFP ,i , y = EFP ,i × IRi ,t × CDi , y
Where:
EFP,i,y
EFP,i
CDi
IRi,t
t
Baseline emission factor per passenger per category “i” before project start
Correction factor for changing trip distance in category “i” for the year “y”, where “i” includes C (passenger cars) and T (taxis)
Technology improvement factor per vehicle category “i” for the year “t”
age in years of fuel consumption data used for calculating the emission factor in year “y”
Formula (A22)
EFP ,i =
Where:
EFP,Z
EFKM,I
TDi
OCi
EFKM ,i × TDi
OC i
Emission factor per passenger transported before project start for vehicle category “i”, where
“i” includes T (taxis), C ( passenger cars)
Emission per kilometer of category “i”
Average trip distance for vehicle category “i”
Average vehicle occupancy rate of vehicle category “i”96
Formula (A23)
⎡
⎛ N x ,i
x ⎢
⎝ Ni
⎣
where:
EFKM,i
SECx,i
EFCO2,x
EFCH4,x
EFN2O,x
Ni
Nx,i
⎞⎤
⎟⎟⎥
⎠⎥⎦
Passenger cars: Only gasoline cars are included as they constitute more than 99% of fuel consumed by
passenger cars. Diesel as well as gas consumption is well below 1% of fuel consumed.97
Taxis: Only gasoline is included as diesel constitutes only 2% of total fuel consumed and CNG less than
5%.98 According to vehicle registries of STT 98% of taxis are based on gasoline, 1.9% are diesel and the
96
In the case of taxis the taxi driver is not counted and only passengers are included in the occupancy rate
97
Source: Unidad de Planeación Minero Energético, Ministry of Mines and Energy, Determinación del Mercado
real de Combustibles, 2004
98
Source: see former footnote
rest gas99. The difference between the two sources concerning gas fuelled vehicles is probably due to illegal conversions.
Table A.3.10.1. Data Used for Calculation Passenger Cars and Taxis
Abbreviation
Description
Value
Unit
Source
SECC,T
Specific fuel con0.117
l/km
Arpel, 2005,
sumption passenger
Measurement of
cars and taxis (gasoIn-Service Veline)
hicle Emissions
in Sao Paulo,
Santiago and
Buenos Aires
EFC,T,CO2
EFC,T,CH4
EFC,T,N2O
TDC
TDT
OCC
OCT
99
Emission factor CO2
passenger cars and
taxis per liter of gasoline
Emission factor CH4
passenger cars and
Emission factor N2O
passenger cars and
passenger cars
taxis
Occupancy rate passenger cars
Occupancy rate taxis
Comments
Vintage 2005; see arguments chapter E.4. 2.1.
why this value is considered as conservative;
original data was taken
from the report including
only gasoline fuelled
vehicles in the three cities; the value taken is the
average mean of the average means of each city;
emissions reported in gr.
CO2 were converted to
liters gasoline based on
EFCO2
Default value; see baseline methodology Appendix A, Table A.1.
2,313
gr CO2eq/l
IPCC
11
gr CO2eq/l
IPCC
14
gr CO2eq/l
IPCC
9
Kilometers
Steer Davies
Gleave, 2005
and STT 2005
7
Kilometers
STT, 2003
1.37
Persons
Steer Davies
Gleave, 1999
0.81
Passengers
STT, OFICIOST-07-04-754105 for % of
taxis occupied
and JICA,1996
for average
number of passengers per
Based on trip duration
and speed of passenger
cars of 2002 i.e. before
project was operational;
annually
annually
Based on total trips
(2,175,132) and trips
with only driver
(1,592,169); data is conservative as over time
downward trend is normal
Based on 54% taxis occupied with an average
of 1.5 passengers; data
2002 (before start of
phase II); occupancy rate
taxis is monitored by
project
Source: STT 7/2004
IRC
Technology improvement factor
taxis and passenger
cars
1%
percent
taxis
International
literature
The specific fuel consumption passenger cars or taxis with diesel engine is 0.108 l/km (same data source
as SECgasoline). The emission factors for diesel are (gr CO2eq /l)100:
¾ EFC,T,CO2 : 2,661
¾ EFC,T,CH4 : 1
¾ EFC,T,N2O :23
Based on above data the GHG emissions per kilometer for passenger cars or taxis are (in grCO2eq/km):
¾ Gasoline vehicles: 274
¾ Diesel vehicles: 290
GHG emissions of diesel cars are thus higher than those of gasoline powered ones in the case of Bogotá.
If a shift occurs from gasoline to diesel passenger cars during the crediting period (as monitored by the
annual survey of TransMilenio passengers) this would increase baseline emissions. The methodology
however only makes changes if baseline emissions get lower (see baseline methodology 4.2. applicability
condition). Therefore and to remain conservative shifts from gasoline to diesel in passenger cars will not
be reported as a change in the emission factors of passenger cars used for calculating baseline emissions.
Results
Emissions per passenger cars (grCO2eq/passenger)
Emissions per passenger taxis
(grCO2eq/passenger)
100
2006
1,783
2007
1,765
2008
1,748
2009
1,730
2010
1,713
2011
1,696
2012
1,679
2,345
2,322
2,299
2,276
2,253
2,230
2,208
Default values based on baseline methodology Appendix A table A.1.
A.3.11. Baseline Emissions Buses
Formula (A24)
EFP , Z , y = EFP , Z × IRZ ,t
Where:
EFP,Z,y
EFP,Z
IRZ,t
t
Baseline emission factor per passenger transported in buses in year “y”
Baseline emission factor per passenger buses before project start
Technology improvement factor buses for the year “t”
age in years of fuel consumption data used for calculating the emission factor in year “y”
Formula (A25)
EFP , Z =
Where:
EFP,Z
EFKM,ZS
DDZS
EFKM,ZM
DDZM
EFKM,ZL
DDZS
PZ
EFKM , ZS × DDZS + EFKM , ZM × DDZM + EFKM , ZL × DDZL
PZ
Emission factor per passenger transported buses baseline (before project start)
Emissions per kilometer small buses
Total distance driven (kilometer) by small buses
Emissions per kilometer medium buses
Total distance driven (kilometer) by medium buses
Emissions per kilometer large buses
Total distance driven (kilometer) by large buses
Passengers transported by buses in the baseline
Formula (A26)
⎡
⎛ N x ,i
x ⎣
⎢
⎝ Ni
where:
EFKM,i
SECx,i
EFCO2,x
EFCH4,x
EFN2O,x
Ni
Nx,i
⎞⎤
⎟⎟⎥
⎠⎦⎥
Public buses: A differentiation is made between small, medium sized and large buses101. For all subcategories diesel as well as gasoline buses are included. Less than 1% of all buses use CNG or LPG. Thus
only diesel and gasoline is included as fuel for buses. However less than 10% of all buses use gasoline.
The main fuel used is thus clearly diesel.
Table A.3.11.1. Data Used for Calculation Buses Baseline
101
Small < 20 passengers; medium 20-50 and large > 50 passengers
Abbreviation
SECD,ZL
Description
Fuel efficiency large
bus with diesel engine
Value
0.455
Unit
l/km
Source
STT and IPCC
SECD,ZM
Fuel efficiency medium bus with diesel
engine
0.315
l/km
STT and IPCC
SECD,ZS
Fuel efficiency small
bus with diesel engine
0.175
l/km
STT and IPCC
SECG,ZL
Fuel efficiency large
bus with gasoline
engine
0.435
l/km
STT and IPCC
SECG,ZM
Fuel efficiency medium bus with gasoline engine
0.435
l/km
STT and IPCC
SECG,ZS
Fuel efficiency small
bus with gasoline
engine
0.250
l/km
STT and IPCC
NZ
Number of large
buses
10,279
units
STT, 2003
NM
Number of medium
buses
8,696
units
STT, 2003
NS
Number of small
buses
7,533
units
STT, 2003
SDZ
Share of diesel in
large buses
Share of diesel in
medium buses
Share of diesel in
small buses
Distance driven large
buses annually
99%
percentage
96%
percentage
81%
percentage
622
million
kilometers
UPME, 2005,
Table 4.10
UPME, 2005,
Table 4.10
UPME, 2005,
Table 4.10
STT, 2005
DDZM
Distance driven medium buses annually
520
million
kilometers
STT, 2005
DDZS
Distance driven small
buses annually
447
million
kilometers
STT, 2005
PZ
Passengers transported annually by
buses baseline
Technology improvement factor
buses
1,533
Million
passengers
Logitrans, STT,
2003
1%
percent
International
literature
SDM
SDS
DDZL
IRZ
Comments
IPCC factors according
to vehicle age and technology in 2006; see below
Based on data 2002 before operational start of
project
project
project
Based on sectoral fuel
consumption (bus)
consumption (buseta)
consumption (colectivo)
Based on average distance per bus and number
of buses 2002
of buses 2002
of buses 2002
Based on data 2002 equal
to distance driven
Fuel efficiency buses
1997 Colombia started using injected gasoline engines. This is also due to the fuel specifications. Since
less than 10 years unleaded fuel is widely available and sulphur in diesel was until the year 2000 at
around 3’000 ppm per liter. Even today sulphur contents remains high with values over 2’000ppm for
normal diesel fuel thus not allowing the introduction of new diesel technologies. Vehicles vintage mid
nineties or older thus in general do not correspond technologically seen to the same vintage in the US,
Europe or Japan but to a much older vehicle technology. Vehicles before 1995 are thus considered in the
case of gasoline vehicles without emission control devices (catalytic converter) and in the case of diesel
engines uncontrolled ones102. Due to high altitude of Bogotá the IPCC fuel consumption values are considered as a very conservative estimate.
Large buses
• Average vintage large buses in 2002/03 (before operational start of Phase II)103: 1991104
• Most common model type: Chevrolet and Dodge with a market participation of 73.2%
• Based on model type and vintage:
o Gasoline engine: HDV “non-catalyst control” with a fuel consumption of 43.5l/100km;
This category is appropriate as Colombia only started using unleaded fuel in 1997 thus
not allowing for the average model year (see above) to be catalyst-controlled. The IPCC
category for HDV gasoline includes basically large pick-ups and vans which are far
lighter than large buses with gross vehicle weights of up to 20 tons. The value taken is
thus very conservative and most probably significantly below the real consumption levels. For 2006 the starting point is thus 43.5l/100km for large buses gasoline
o Diesel engine: HDV “uncontrolled” with a fuel consumption of 45.5 l/100km; This category is appropriate as Colombia was using until the year 2000 a diesel with a very high
sulphur contents not allowing for emission control technologies. For 2006 the starting
point is thus 45.5l/100km for large buses diesel. Based on the average vintage of large
buses (1991) and the default technical improvement factor (1% per year) a large diesel
bus vintage 2006 would have a fuel consumption of 39 l/100km. This is nearly exactly
the same as the average value of new large buses recorded by TransMilenio which however operate in much more regular driving conditions due to the new transport system.
This is a clear indication of the conservativeness of the fuel consumption level chosen.
Medium buses
• Average age medium sized buses in 2002/03105: 1983106
• Most common model type: Chevrolet and Dodge with a market participation of 90.7%
o Gasoline engine: HDV “non-catalyst control US” with a fuel consumption of
43.5l/100km; This category in IPCC includes basically large pick-ups and vans with a
gross weight of less than 8 tons107 and thus less than medium buses. This category is appropriate as Colombia only started using unleaded fuel in 1997 thus not allowing for the
average model year (see above) to be catalyst-controlled. The starting point is thus 43.5
l/100km as the starting point for medium buses gasoline in 2006.
102
Source: Departamento Técnico Administrativo del Medio Ambiente DAMA, Revisión y Ajuste de Emisiones por
Fuentes Móviles en la Ciudad de Bogotá, 2004
103
Buses, buses ejecutivos y buses superejecutivos
104
average age 12 years i.e. average model year in 2006 is 1994
105
buseta
106
107
IPCC, 1.69
o
Diesel engine: HDV “uncontrolled” with a fuel consumption of 45.5 l/100km and LDV
“uncontrolled” with a fuel economy of 17.5 l/100km. This category is appropriate as Colombia was using until the year 2000 a diesel with a very high sulphur contents not allowing for emission control technologies. The average is 31.5 l/100km as the starting
point for medium buses diesel in 2006.
Small buses
• Average age small buses in 2002/2003108: 1996109
• Most common model type: Chevrolet and Daihatsu with a market participation of 67.1% (of which
Chevrolet 46.3% with a growing tendency)
o Gasoline engine: LDV “non-catalyst controls” with a fuel consumption of 25.0 l/100km;
This category is appropriate as Colombia only started using unleaded fuel in 1997 thus
not allowing for the average model year (see above) to be catalyst-controlled. For 2006
the starting point is thus 25.0 l/100km for small buses gasoline.
o Diesel engine: LDV “uncontrolled” with a fuel economy of 17.5 l/100km. This category
is appropriate as Colombia was using until the year 2000 a diesel with a very high sulphur contents not allowing for emission control technologies. For 2006 the starting point
is thus 17.5 l/100km for small buses diesel
Sources fuel consumption:
Age of buses: STT, 2004, based on registered vehicles
Model type: STT, 2004
Technology type: DAMA, 2004
Technology identification: IPCC, 1996, Table 1-25
Fuel efficiency according to technology identification: IPCC, 1996, Tables I-28 to I-32
Results
Emissions per passenger buses
(grCO2eq/passenger)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
930
921
911
902
893
884
876
108
colectivos
109
A.3.12. Total Baseline Emissions
Formula (A27)
BE y = ∑ (EFP ,i , y × PPJ ,i , y )
i
Where:
BEy
EFP,i,y
PPJ,i,y
Baseline CO2eq emissions for the year “y”
Passengers transported by the project in year “y” that without the project activity would have
used category “i”, where “i” includes Z (buses, public transport), T (taxis), or C (passenger
cars)110
The passengers transported per category “i” are calculated based on the share of passengers per category
“i” determined through the sample survey.
Table A.3.12.1. Data Used for Calculation Baseline Emissions
Abbreviation
Description
Value
Unit
SPPJ,Z
Share of passengers
88.0%
percentage
which would have
used buses in absence
of the project
SPPJ,C
Share of passengers
5.5%
percentage
which would have
used passenger cars
in absence of the project
SPPJ,T
Share of passengers
5.6%
percentage
which would have
used taxis in absence
of the project
SPPJ,NMT
Share of passengers
0.8%
percentage
which would have
used NMT in absence
of the project
SPPJ,IT
Share of passengers
0.1%
percentage
which would have not
have made the trip in
absence of the project
(induced traffic)
PPJ
Passengers transSee below
Million
ported by the project
passengers
(TransMilenio Phase
II-IV)
110
Source
TransMilenio
Comments
Based on complete survey realized 3/2006; data
is monitored
TransMilenio
is monitored
TransMilenio
is monitored
TransMilenio
is monitored
TransMilenio
is monitored
TransMilenio,
12-2005
Based on planning forecasts by TransMilenio
based on entry of new
trunk routes; for 2006
adjustment to forecast
based on monitored passengers Jan-May 2006
(lower than forecast due
to late entry of buses and
some parts of trunk
routes)
NMT and IT is not included as emissions are 0 for this category in the baseline
Table A.3.12.2. Results Baseline Emissions
Passengers project in millions
Emissions passenger cars tCO2eq
Emissions taxis tCO2eq
Emissions buses tCO2eq
Total baseline emissions in
tCO2eq
2006
147
14,405
19,508
120,656
2007
208
20,153
27,292
168,801
2008
356
34,099
46,177
285,609
2009
478
45,365
61,433
379,969
2010
478
44,911
60,819
376,169
2011
547
50,875
68,895
426,120
2012
547
50,366
68,206
421,859
total
2,763
260,176
352,328
2,179,185
154,569
216,246
365,885
486,767
481,900
545,890
540,431
2,791,689
Total in 7 years: 2,791,689 tCO2eq
A.3.13. Details of Survey to Identify Mode of Transport
Such surveys are routinely used in transport systems. The survey is being realized 6 times per year by a
professional survey firm. Trials were made since May 2005 and the survey was refined till end 2006. The
first full survey was realized March 2006 with a base of 2’500 passengers (far more than required to
comply with a 5% error margin). The full survey is available for the validator for review. Basically the
survey asks the passengers which mode of transport they would have used in absence of TransMilenio.
The categories of transport modes to choose from include public transport (buses), taxis, passenger cars,
Non-Motorized Transport (bicycle and pedestrian) and induced traffic (passenger would not have realized
the trip in absence of the project). The relative distribution is measured and the absolute numbers are calculated based on total passengers transported. The survey is in accordance with the approved monitoring
methodology Appendix B.
Following elements are included in the survey design:
¾ The survey is realized with maximum 5% error margin and a 95% confidence interval.
¾ The minimum sampling size is determined by the 95% confidence interval and the 5% error margin.
¾ Sampling is statistically robust and relevant i.e. the survey has a random distribution and is representative of the persons using the BRT system.
¾ The methodology to select persons for interviews is based on a systematic random sampling based on
the flow of passengers per station per day per hour i.e. the number of persons to be interviewed randomly per bus station and per hour per day is based on the total flow of passengers per station-dayhour to have a representative sample.
¾ Only persons over age 12 are asked.
¾ The survey is realized minimum 6 times per year
¾ The survey is executed by an external organization with specialized knowledge on survey and survey
techniques.
¾ A training of the people conducting the questionnaire was realized by the organization performing latter. The training was based on standard questionnaire techniques and quality assurance.
¾ The survey has been tested and improved since May 2005.
¾ The survey allows for a clear separation of modes of transport which the passenger would have used in
absence of the project.
¾ The survey includes control questions to assure a conservative approach
¾ A sensitivity analysis of this factor is carried out (see Annex 3.14).
¾ The relative mode distribution is maintained constant for the year after a policy affecting potentially
the modal distribution has been enforced. The emission reductions due to the policy change are thus
fully accounted for in the baseline in a conservative manner (100% is attributed to the policy change).
¾ TransMilenio is being implemented gradually. The persons can thus compare the still existing traditional system with the BRT system.
¾ A sensitivity analysis is realized to calculate the impact of lower than baseline trip distances and of
changing fuel types in passenger cars
The questionnaire used by TransMilenio is included below (translated from Spanish to English):
TRANSMILENIO QUESTIONNAIRE FOR MODAL SPLIT SURVEY
Registered are the interviewer, date, place and time. The data is supplied in absolute values to avoid calculation errors and entered into the GHG-Monitoring software to calculate the percentage distribution of
modes.
Question 1:
“Assuming that the bus system you are currently using would not exist: What mode of transport would
you have used for this specific trip you are doing currently”.
For the interviewer:

The question is related to this specific trip and not to the trips realized by the
person during the year in general.
To clarify mention that you are comparing TransMilenio with the public transport system existing formerly respectively with the public transport system which
still exists in parts of the city not served by TransMilenio
Persons which cannot relate it to any mode of transport are taken as induced
traffic (conservative default parameter)
Multiple choice answers to question 1:
(only tick one; if the passenger would have used more than one transport mode for the trip he is realizing
currently then tick the mode which involves the longest distance):
1. conventional bus based public transport (not TransMilenio)
2. private car → please go to 2A
3. taxi → please go to 3A
4. per foot
5. per bicycle
6. I would not have made the trip (induced traffic)
Question 2: If the passenger responds with the answer 2 then ask:
2A. Do you or your family own a car or do you have access to a car (e.g. car-sharing) ?
a. NO
b. YES
If the passenger responds with NO this specific questionnaire is deemed as non-consistent and removed
from the final counting
2B. What fuel type does the car use to which you have access?
□ gasoline □ diesel □ gas (CNG, LNG or LPG) □
electric
□ I don’t know □
other:…….
2C. What is the starting point of your trip (origin) and which is the final (destination) point? Please name
the station our location where you first boarded a bus belonging to TM and where you will make the final stop?
For the interviewer: Please advise the passenger that the original departing and final point is required.
This may include bus transbording such as first using a feeder line and then a main line. It is thus the
origin and final destination of the passengers trip and not of the ride on this specific bus-line.
Origin (departing point): ……………………………………………………
Destination (final point): ……………………………………………………
Question 3: If the passenger responds with the answer 3 then ask:
3A. Have you used in the last 12 months a taxi ?
a. NO
b. YES
If the passenger responds with NO this specific questionnaire is deemed as non-consistent and removed
from the final counting
3B. What is the starting point of your trip (origin) and which is the final (destination) point? Please name
the station our location where you first boarded a bus belonging to TM and where you will make the final
stop?
For the interviewer: Please advise the passenger that the original departing and final point is required.
This may include bus transbording such as first using a feeder line and then a main line. It is thus the
origin and final destination of the passengers trip and not of the ride on this specific bus-line.
Origin (departing point): ……………………………………………………
Destination (final point): ……………………………………………………
A.3.14. Sensitivity Analysis
The sensitivity analysis is made with two different approaches:
¾ The impact of a 10% change of the parameter upon Emissions Reductions.
¾ Calculation of the level of change required to reduce ER by 5%
With these 2 methods the sensitivity of the result is tested against parameter fluctuations. All calculations
are made against the 10-year crediting period.
Table A.3.14. Sensitivity Analysis of Paramters
Parameter (ID
Impact on
Impact on
number and deER of a 10% ER of a 10%
scription)
increase of
reduction of
parameter
parameter
value
value
Parameters used to calculate project emissions
ID1: fuel con-5%
+5%
sumption trunk
buses
ID 1: fuel consumption feeder
buses
-1%
+1%
ID 5: passengers
+9%
-11%
transported by
TransMilenio
Parameter used to calculate baseline emissions
ID 6: fuel effi+7%
-7%
ciency large buses
diesel
ID 6: fuel effi0%
0%
ciency large buses
gasoline
ID 6: fuel effi+4%
-4%
ciency medium
buses diesel
ID 6: fuel efficiency medium
buses gasoline
ID 6: fuel efficiency small
buses diesel
ID 6: fuel efficiency small
buses gasoline
ID 6: fuel efficiency passenger
cars and taxis
gasoline
ID 7: Occupancy
rate passenger
cars
ID 7: Occupancy
% change of
parameter
value required
to reduce ERs
by 5%.
+10%
comment
-5%
Total fuel consumption is monitored
monthly and checked with specific fuel
consumption data. Data reliability is thus
very high.
Result very robust. Total fuel consumption
is monitored monthly and checked with
specific fuel consumption data. Data reliability is thus very high.
See comment below
-7%
See comment below
n.a.
Even with 0 fuel consumption the ER only
reduces by 1% due to the very low share
of large gasoline buses
Result fairly robust. Fuel consumption
values used are conservative as Bogotá has
strong stop-and-go traffic, high altitude
and buses are in a bad maintenance situation.
Even with 0 fuel consumption the ER only
reduces by 1% due to the very low share
of medium gasoline buses
Result very robust
+38%
-13%
0%
0%
n.a.
+2%
-2%
-31%
0%
0%
-100%
+3%
-4%
-13%
-1%
+2%
+46%
Result very robust. Even with 0 fuel consumption the ER only reduces by less than
5%.
Result robust; data of taxis and passenger
cars were changed simultaneously (thus
cumulative effect) thus being very conservative; values taken are conservative due
to the high altitude and the higher average
age of Bogotá compared to the survey
Result very robust
-2%
+2%
+30%
Result very robust
rate taxis
ID 8: Average trip
+2%
-2%
distance passenger cars
ID 8: Average trip
+2%
-2%
distance taxis
ID 10: Distance
+7%
-7%
driven large buses
baseline
ID 10: Distance
+4%
-4%
driven medium
buses baseline
ID 10: Distance
+2%
-2%
driven small buses
baseline
ID 11: Passengers
-13%
+15%
baseline (before
project start)
ID 13: Share of
+1%
-1%
passengers passenger cars
ID 13: Share of
+1%
-1%
passengers taxis
ID 13: Share of
0%
0%
passengers NMT
and induced traffic
Parameters used to calculate leakage emissions
ID 15: amount of
0%
0%
cement used
ID 16: longitude
0%
0%
of trunk roads
ID 17: number of
0%
0%
buses scrapped
ID 18: average
0%
0%
age of buses baseline
ID 19: average
0%
0%
age of scrapped
buses
ID 23: share of
0%
0%
road space used
by public transport
ID 24: Road space
0%
0%
available baseline
ID 24: Road space
0%
0%
available project
ID 25: Daily trips
0%
0%
passenger cars
ID 26: average
0%
0%
speed passenger
cars baseline
ID 26: average
0%
0%
speed passenger
cars project
Note:
-32%
Result very robust; additionally this result
is monitored annually
-33%
-7%
Result very robust; additionally this result
is monitored annually
See comment below
-12%
Robust result
-24%
Result very robust
+4%
See comment below
-75%
Result very robust and monitored annually
-42%
+500%
+100%
Result very robust
+100%
Result very robust
>+100%
Result very robust; countervailing effects
with reduced congestion
Result very robust;
>+100%
-100%
>100%
Result very robust; even if age of 0 is assumed for all scrapped buses ER change
less than 5%
Result very robust
>100%
Result very robust
>100%
Result very robust
>100%
Result very robust; countervailing trends
rebound and speed effect
Result very robust; even without speed
effect (0 change) ER change less than 5%
>100%
>100%
Result very robust; even without speed
effect (0 change) ER change less than 5%
•
•
•
•
ID 2 is included in ID 1
ID 5: ID 5 includes ID 3 and ID 4
ID 12 = ID 5; ID 21 = ID 7
ID 13: When increasing (reducing) a specific mode of transport the corresponding reduction/increase is compensated with bus passengers
• ID 14: policies, cannot be measured directly.
• ID 20: Can only be calculated in relation with the new number of buses which again influences the occupation
rate. No calculation thus possible at the current stage (it is not feasible to assume the same amount of buses as in
the baseline while only reducing the occupation rate)
• ID 22: Only relevant in combination with a >10 percentage point decrease of the occupation rate of taxis or buses
Conclusions
Following parameters are sensitive to change:
• ID 5 (passengers transported by the project): This data is mechanically and electronically recorded and
transmitted daily. Data quality level is very high and checked by all involved parties as payments of operators are also dependent on this parameter. Non-paying passengers are not counted by the system.
Passengers using only feeder routes are not counted. Data quality is thus very high and the value is
conservative.
• ID 6 (fuel consumption large buses): The fuel consumption values used are conservative as Bogotá has
strong stop-and-go traffic, high altitude and buses are in a bad maintenance situation. All these factors
increase in a significant manner fuel consumption. Based on the average vintage of large buses (1991)
and the default technical improvement factor (1% per year) a large diesel bus vintage 2006 would have
a fuel consumption of 39 l/100km. This is nearly exactly the same as the average value of new large
buses recorded by TransMilenio which however operate in much more regular driving conditions and as
part of professional transport companies with standard maintenance procedures due to the new transport
system. This is a clear indication of the conservativeness of the fuel consumption level chosen.
• ID 10: Distance driven large buses. Data is from STT and includes only matriculated buses. A certain
quantity of buses are however operating illegal. These are not included. The data on matriculated vehicles is on the other hand is very precise and the distance driven has been verified by an extensive study
realized by Logitrans. The parameter value is thus very robust.
• ID 11: Passengers baseline: The parameter was measured in an extensive and comprehensive study performed by Logitrans and coincides with other data sources (STT). Data source is equal to distance
driven thus making the parameter calculated (passengers per kilometre) robust.
General remarks:
¾ The large majority of data is very robust: 2 out of 3 parameters for project emissions are non-sensitive
to change. 15 out of 18 parameters required for baseline emission calculations are non-sensitive to
change and all leakage parameters are clearly non-sensitive to change.
¾ Modal change data is not sensitive. Combined with the confidence interval of the survey of 95% with
an error margin of 5% the data robustness is considered as very good.
A.3.15. Local Environmental Impact
Particle Emissions
Formula (A28)
BE PM , y =
Where:
BEPM,y
PPJ,y
PZ
EFPM,Z
DDZ
PPJ , y
PZ
× EFPM , Z × DDZ
Baseline Particle Matter emissions for the year “y”
Passengers transported by the project in the year “y”
Passengers transported by baseline buses
Particle emission factor per kilometer driven baseline bus (mixture of large, medium and
small bus)
Distance driven (kilometer) of all buses baseline
Formula (A28) captures the effect of PM emissions avoided by passengers which use TransMilenio instead of conventional public transport, while formulae (A29) calculates the project PM emissions.
Formula (A29)
PE PM , y = EFPM , PJ × (DDTB , y + DDFB , y )
Where:
PEPM,y
EFPM,PJ
DDTB, y
DDFB, y
Project Particle Matter emissions for the year “y”
Particle emission factor per kilometer driven TransMilenio
Total kilometer of trunk buses for the year “y”
Total kilometer of feeder buses for the year “y”
Formula (A30)
ERPM , y = BE PM , yi − PE PM , y
Where:
ERPM,y
BEPM,y
PEPM,y
Emission reduction Particle Matter for the year “y”
Baseline Particle Matter emissions for the year “y”
Project Particle Matter emissions for the year “y”
NOx Emissions
The same formulae as for PM are used with the corresponding change of the EF
SO2 Emissions
Calculations are based on the SO2 emissions associated with the fuel consumption of the project versus
baseline buses. In the baseline only buses are considered as only diesel related SO2 emissions are considered. This is a conservative but fairly realistic approach as the sulfur contents of diesel is far higher than
that of gasoline.
Formula (A31)
PE SO 2, y = TC y × DEN D ×
PESO2,y
TCy
DEND
MMS
MMSO2
CSO2
SCD
MM SO 2
× C SO 2 × SC D
MM S
Project emissions of sulfur dioxide in the year “y”
Density Diesel
Mol mass sulfur
Mol mass sulfur dioxide
Conversion rate of Euro 2/3 diesel engines to SO2
Sulfur contents of diesel
Formula (A32)
BE SO 2, y =
BECO 2, Z , y
EFCO 2, D ,Z
BESO2,y
BECO2,Z,y
EFCO2,D,Z
DEND
MMS
MMSO2
CSO2
SCD
× DEN D ×
MM SO 2
× C SO 2 × SC D
MM S
Baseline emissions of sulfur dioxide in the year “y”
Baseline CO2 emissions of buses in the year “y”
CO2 emission factor per liter of fuel baseline buses diesel
Density Diesel
Mol mass sulfur
Mol mass sulfur dioxide
Conversion rate of Euro 2/3 diesel engines to SO2
Sulfur contents of diesel
Formula (A33)
ERSO 2, y = BE SO 2, yi − PE SO 2, y
Where:
ERSO2,y
BESO2,y
PESO2,y
Emission reduction sulfur dioxide emissions for the year “y”
Baseline sulfur dioxide emissions for the year “y”
Project sulfur dioxide emissions for the year “y”
Table A.3.15 1. Data Used for Calculation Local Environmental Impact
Value
Unit
Source
PPJ
Passengers transSee Table
Million
TransMilenio, 12ported by the proA.3.12.1.
passengers 2005
ject (TransMilenio
Phase II-IV)
PZ
Passengers transSee Table
Million
Logitrans, STT,
ported by baseline
A.3.11.1.
passengers 2003
buses
DDZ
Distance driven
See Table
million
STT, 2005
conventional buses
A.3.11.1.
kilometers
annually
EFPM,Z
Particle Matter
2.56
gr. PM /
Infras, 2002, table
emission factor
km
21
buses baseline
EFPM,PJ
Particle Matter
0.77
gr. PM /
Infras, 2002, table
Comments
Based on
EMOD/CMAD model
for urban bus 80s diesel
Based on Euro 2 taking
emission factor
TransMilenio buses
km
24
EFNOx,Z
NOx emission factor
buses baseline
22.0
gr. NOx/
km
Infras, 2002, table
21
EFNOx,PJ
NOx emission factor
TransMilenio buses
13.2
gr. NOx/
km
Infras, 2002, table
24
DDTB
Distance driven
trunk buses TM
Distance driven
feeder buses TM
Fuel consumed project
Density diesel
Mol mass sulfur
Mol mass sulfur
dioxide
SO2 conversion factor of diesel engines
See table
A.3.1.2.
See table
A.3.1.2.
See table
A.3.1.2.
0.84
32
64
km
TransMilenio, 2005
km
TransMilenio, 2005
liters
TransMilenio, 2005
kg/l
Kg/kmol
Kg/kmol
BUWAL
Chemical tables
Chemical tables
98%
percent
Oral communication
T. Bürki, ETHZ
SCD
Sulfur contents of
diesel
1,200
ppm
Resolucion 1180,
21.6.2006 del Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y DesarrolloTerritorial y
Ministerio de Minas
y Energia
BECO2,Z,y
Baseline CO2 emissions of baseline
buses in the year
“y”
CO2 emission factor
per liter of fuel
baseline buses diesel
See table
A.3.12.2
Tons
2,713
grCO2eq/l
DDFB
TCy
DEND
MMS
MMSO2
CSO2
EFCO2,D,Z
Default value; see
baseline methodology Appendix A,
Table A.2.
a correction factor versus baseline buses;
conservative as more
than 50% of buses will
be Euro 3
Based on
EMOD/CMAD model
for urban bus 80s diesel
Based on Euro 2 taking
a correction factor versus baseline buses;
conservative as more
than 50% of buses will
be Euro 3
For diesel engines
without particle trap or
catalyst
Diesel used currently in
Bogota (ACEM)
Value of small buses
taken (highest value of
diesel buses and thus
conservative as this
reduces baseline SO2
emissions)
PM emission project in tons
PM emissions baseline in tons
PM emission reductions in tons
NOX emissions project in tons
NOX emissions baseline in tons
NOX emissions reductions in
tons
SO2 project emissions in tons
2006
30
391
362
509
3,362
2007
42
553
511
719
4,751
2008
72
945
873
1,229
8,120
2009
96
1,270
1,174
1,651
10,912
2010
96
1,270
1,174
1,651
10,912
2011
110
1,453
1,343
1,890
12,486
2012
110
1,453
1,343
1,890
12,486
total
555
7,334
6,779
9,539
63,028
2,853
41
4,032
58
6,891
100
9,260
134
9,260
134
10,596
154
10,596
154
53,489
775
SO2 emissions baseline in tons
SO2 emission reductions in tons
88
47
123
64
208
108
277
142
274
140
310
157
307
154
1,587
812
Total PM emission reductions in 7 years: 6,779 tons
Total NOx emission reductions in 7 years: 53,489 tons
Total SO2 emission reductions in 7 years: 812 tons
A.3.16. Literature Used
Arpel, Measurement of In-Service Vehicles Emissions in Sao Paulo, Santiago and Buenos Aires, 7-2005
Conpes 3093, Sistema de Servicio Publico Urbano de Transporte Masivo de Pasajeros de Bogota,
15.11.2000
DAMA/Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Revisión y Ajuste de la Norma de Emisiones por Fuentes
Móviles en la Ciudad de Bogotá, 2004
Gomez A, La Olla a Presion del Transporte Publico en Bogota, Revista de Ingenieria 21, 5.2005
GTZ, Bus Rapid Transit, version 2.0, 2005
Hidalgo D, TransMilenio: Un Sistema de Transporte Masivo en Buses de Alta Capacidad y Bajo Costo
para Bogota, Colombia, 2003
Hidalgo D, Comparación de Alternativas de Transporte Público Masivo – Una Aproximación Conceptual, in Revista de Ingeniería 21, 5-2005
Infras, Pisa Lima/Callao: EMOD/CMAP Assumptions and Results, 2002
IPCC, Revised IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories: Reference Manual
Logitrans, Contrato PNUD COL/01/23, Analisis de Corredores, 2003/4
Logitrans, Parte III- Analisis de Solicitudes de la Comunidad, 2003/4
Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Dearrollo Territorial, Decreto 1220, 21.4.2005
Steer Davis Gleave, Diseno Operacional Proyecto TransMilenio, 1999
Steer Davis Gleave, Estudio sobre Estimacion de Usuarios de Transporte Privado a ser Desplazados por
el Sistema TransMilenio, 2002
Steer Davis Gleave, Estudio para la Reformulacion del Plan Vial de Transporte y de Espacio Publico
Peatonal del Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial de Bogota, Producto 2, 2005
Tribunal Administrativo de Cundinamarca, Exp. 25000-23-24-000-2003-00224-01, 26.5.2005
Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Perez M.P., Evaluacion y Caracterizacion del parque automotor de
transporte publico individual y colectivo en Bogota D.C. y confrontacion con la flota necesaria para satisfacer la demanda actual de viajes en este modo, 2004
UPME, Determinacion del Mercado Real de Gasolina, ACPM y GNV en las Areas Metropolitanas de
Bogota y Bucaramanga y los Municipios de Mosquera y Funza, 2004
World Bank, NSS for Implementation of the CDM in Colombia, 2000
World Bank, Report 24941-CO, PAD on a Proposed Loan in the Amount of USD 100 Million to the
Capital District of Bogota, 2003
World Bank, PCF Plus, Estimating the Market Potential for the CDM: Review of Models and Lessons
Learned, 2004
Annex 4
MONITORING PLAN
The monitoring plan has two aims: to ensure the environmental integrity of the project activity and to ensure that the data monitoring requirements are closely aligned with the current practice of the project operator.
The monitoring methodology has ex-ante determined emission factors per passenger transported for all
modes of transport. The total baseline emissions are derived by applying to these emission factors the activity level (passengers per mode transported) of the project. The methodology thus focuses on the emissions per passenger of different modes of transport in absence of the project. All data used to calculate
these values are thus monitored ex-ante. For calculating the total baseline emissions and the emission reductions the number of passengers using the project and the traffic mode they would have used in absence
of the new transport system is monitored (public transport, taxis, passenger cars, Non-Motorized Transport and induced traffic).
The monitoring methodology for the project is based on measuring the total emissions of the new transport system. From a methodological viewpoint data is basically derived from measurements.
The monitoring methodology for leakage depends basically on elements calculated ex-ante project based
on pre-established factors and on measurements during project execution (for reduced life-span and load
factor). Data is derived basically from planning/modelling sources, fixed parameters derived from the international literature and from periodic surveys.
A special unit is in charge of managing all data in relation to the CDM project including responsibility for
data collection, quality assurance, reports and data storage. The area in charge of the CDM project is the
“environment area” inside the operations department. The unit is under direct supervision of the CEO of
TransMilenio S.A. TransMilenio S.A. is ISO 9000 certified and has thus in place recognized QA procedures.
QA and QC is assured by a special monitoring software containing inter alia how to proceed with key
measurements and survey, how to screen data for quality and how to handle potential errors. Staff in
charge has been trained. The software elaborated for monitoring includes:
¾ Baseline, leakage and project default data
¾ All data required to be monitored
¾ Identification of person entering data
¾ Track record of all changes
¾ Statistical check of data
¾ Automatic calculations of data based on PDD formulas
¾ Calculation of local environmental impact
A (Spanish) monitoring manual has been realized for TransMilenio and staff has been familiarized with
this manual in a special training course realized mid 2006. The Manual defines responsibilities and procedures, has a section on all data variables to be monitored, includes monitoring report formats as well as
the Spanish formats of the modal split survey, the load factor taxi and the load factor buses surveys. The
data section has for each data variable information on how to collect the required information, the frequency of collection, data units (including transformation of common data units), quality control measures to be realized, steps to be taken in case of data problems, how to enter data in the monitoring software (step by step guide) and some additional hints and comments. The monitoring manual can be reviewed by the validator.
Training of the responsible staff was performed end 2005 and mid 2006. The staff receives back-up support by grütter consulting during the first two years of the crediting period including a check of all data,
software updates and quality assurance. Results are discussed with the staff responsible. The propriety
software is available for the DOE for validation purposes.