Tendencias historicas y diferencias transnacionales en los homicidios:

Tendencias historicas y diferencias
transnacionales en los homicidios:
Como cambia la violencia letal y sus posibles
determinantes
Manuel Eisner
Director, Violence Research Centre (VRC)
Institute of Criminology
University of Cambridge
Structure
How much variation in homicide rates is there across time
and between societies?
Where does it come from?
Iceland
Norway
Switzerland
Morocco
Slovenia
United Kingdom
Australia
New Zealand
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Portugal
Belgium
Serbia
Malaysia
Bulgaria
Turkey
Pakistan
Mongolia
Israel
Haiti
United States of America
Jordan
Suriname
Republic of Moldova
Madagascar
Senegal
Mali
Nicaragua
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Bahamas
Mexico
Philippines
Kenya
Panama
Lesotho
South Africa
Malawi
Swaziland
Jamaica
Guatemala
Variation in Homicide Rates in the
Contemporary World
Homicide Rate per 100,000
70,0
60,0
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
-
Note: WHO homicide statistics 2008.
70,0
60,0
Iceland
Norway
Switzerland
Morocco
Slovenia
United Kingdom
Australia
New Zealand
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Portugal
Belgium
Serbia
Malaysia
Bulgaria
Turkey
Pakistan
Mongolia
Israel
Haiti
United States of America
Jordan
Suriname
Republic of Moldova
Madagascar
Senegal
Mali
Nicaragua
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Bahamas
Mexico
Philippines
Kenya
Panama
Lesotho
South Africa
Malawi
Swaziland
Jamaica
Guatemala
Variation in Homicide Rates in the
Contemporary World
Homicide Rate per 100,000
Argentina 2012: 7.2 per 100,000
(Fleitas, 2014)
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
-
Note: WHO homicide statistics 2008.
50,0
40,0
30,0
Iceland
Norway
Switzerland
Morocco
Slovenia
United Kingdom
Australia
New Zealand
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Portugal
Belgium
Serbia
Malaysia
Bulgaria
Turkey
Pakistan
Mongolia
Israel
Haiti
United States of America
Jordan
Suriname
Republic of Moldova
Madagascar
Senegal
Mali
Nicaragua
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Bahamas
Mexico
Philippines
Kenya
Panama
Lesotho
South Africa
Malawi
Swaziland
Jamaica
Guatemala
Variation in Homicide Rates in the
Contemporary World
Homicide Rate per 100,000
70,0
60,0
Contemporary Rates vary between
about 0.5 (Japan, Austria, Norway)
and 50 (Jamaica, El Salvador,
Guatemala) per 100,000
inhabitants
20,0
10,0
-
Note: WHO homicide statistics 2008.
Map of the World by Homicides
(WHO recorded homicides 2002,
www.worldmapper.org)
Map of the World by Research Output
(Published papers in 2001
www.worldmapper.org)
Homicide Scale
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
< 1 Pacified
Societies
0,1
1400
1600
1800
2000
Homicide Scale
Homicide as Politics
• Unrelated men in public space
• Organized and sectarian
• Violent enterpreneurs
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
Homicide as Pathology
< 1 Pacified
Societies
• Large % female victims
• Individual pathologies
• Marginal groups
0,1
1400
1600
1800
2000
Homicide Scale
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
Current Global HR = 6.4
(430,000 deaths p.a.)
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
< 1 Pacified
Societies
Source:
UNODC (2014)
Global Study on Homicide
0,1
1400
1600
1800
2000
Homicide Scale
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
Honduras
South Africa
Mexico
10
10-100 Violent
Societies
Uganda
USA
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
Canada
1
Switzerland
Source:
UNODC (2014)
Global Study on Homicide
Singapore
0,1
1400
1600
1800
2000
< 1 Pacified
Societies
Homicide Scale
Correlates of Homicide
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Low HDI
High ethnic fractionalization
High inequality
High corruption
Low democracy
Low governance
Low social policy and health exp.
Low social trust
Low legitimacy
10
> 100 Civil War
Honduras
South Africa
Mexico
10-100 Violent
Societies
Uganda
USA
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
Canada
1
Switzerland
Sources:
Lappi-Sappälä & Lehti (2014)
Global Homicide Trends
Singapore
Nivette(2011) Hom Studies
Nivette & Eisner (2012)
Hom Studies
0,1
1400
1600
1800
2000
< 1 Pacified
Societies
Homicide Scale
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10 % world population
45% homicides
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
45 % world population
9% homicides
< 1 Pacified
Societies
0,1
1400
1600
1800
2000
Homicide Scale
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
< 1 Pacified
Societies
0
1400
1600
1800
2000
Homicide Scale
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
< 1 Pacified
Societies
0
1400
1600
1800
2000
Homicide Scale
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Trends in 8
European Regions,
15th to 21st c.
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
Source:
Eisner (2014) Swords to
Words, C & J
< 1 Pacified
Societies
0
1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Why did homicide decline in Europe?
Why did homicide decline in Europe?
Four hypotheses
1.
The long-term decline in homicide in the general population was
preceded by a pacification of the political elites.
2.
The Early Modern (15th -18th century) decline in homicide was
associated with a transition from a punitive regime anchored in the
spectacle of suffering to a punitive regime focused on regulation,
discipline, and imprisonment.
3.
The Early Modern (15th -18th century) decline in homicide was partly
due to the frontal lobe training in self-control resulting from the
diffusion of the book and literacy.
4.
The up and down of homicide across the Western World since the 1950s
is the result of cultural change related to self-control and discipline.
The Hypothesis
Any decline in homicide in the general population requires a prior
pacification of the political elites.
The Data
1. Regicide Database: Coding of violent deaths of all 1513 rulers in 45
monarchies of Europe, 600-1800. See Eisner, M. (2011). Killing Kings…, British
Journal of Criminology.
2. VIP Violent Death Database: Coding of all male entries in the Oxford
Dictionary of National Biography, 600-2000 for homicide and execution.
Elite Violence and the Decline in Homicide, 600-2013
Elite Murder
Pre-Modern Homicide
Modern Homicide
3000
70
2500
60
50
2000
40
1500
30
1000
20
500
10
0
0
600
700
800
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Year
Source: Eisner, M. (2014). From Swords to Words – Does Macro-Level Change in Self-Control predict Long-Term Variation in Homicide Rates.
Crime and Justice (in press).
Homicide Rate per 100,000
Elite Killing Rate per 100,000
Regicide
The Hypothesis
The decline in homicide was associated with a transition
from a punitive regime anchored in the spectacle of suffering
to a punitive regime focused on regulation, discipline, and imprisonment.
The Data
Series of capital punishment in 17 European cities, 1200 – 1800, covering Italy,
Switzerland, Germany, Spain, Netherlands, England.
Retrieved from various historical publications.
17 Series of Capital Punishment and European Trend,
1200-2000
40
35
Executions per 100,000
30
25
20
Chester
Frankfurt2
Nürnberg
Augsburg
Zurich
Luzern
Breslau
Sweden
London
Danzig
Mechelen2
Antwerp
Doornik
Bologna
Venice
Navarra
Rome
Mean Trend
15
10
5
0
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Source: Eisner, M. (2014). From Swords to Words – Does Macro-Level Change in Self-Control predict Long-Term Variation in Homicide Rates.
Crime and Justice (in press).
Decline in Capital Punishment vs. Decline in Homicide
Executions
Pre-Modern Homicide
Modern Homicide Rate
25
50
45
40
Execution Rate per 100,000
35
15
30
25
10
20
15
5
10
5
0
1200
0
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Source: Eisner, M. (2014). From Swords to Words – Does Macro-Level Change in Self-Control predict Long-Term Variation in Homicide Rates.
Crime and Justice (in press).
Homicide Rat per 100,000
20
The Hypothesis
The Early Modern (15th -18th century) decline in homicide
was partly due to the frontal lobe training in self-control
resulting from the diffusion of the book and literacy.
Jan Steen (1665) The Schoolmaster.
The Data
Number of printed books per 1000 inhabitants for 13 European regions between
1450 and 1800, by 50-year periods.
Buringh, E. and J. L. Van Zanden (2009). "Charting the “Rise of the West”:
Manuscripts and Printed Books in Europe, a long-term Perspective from the Sixth
through Eighteenth Centuries." The Journal of Economic History, 69(02): 409-445.
Book Production and Homicide Rate, 1450-1800
Homicide Rate
100
1450-99
1500-49
1550-99
10
1600-49
1650-99
1700-49
1750-99
1
0,1
1
10
100
Books per 1000 Inhabitants
1000
Book Production and Homicide Rate, 1450-1800
100
Log-Log –Relationship:
Homicide rates went down as book production
went up
Homicide Rate
R2 = 54%
1450-99
1500-49
1550-99
10
1600-49
1650-99
1700-49
1750-99
1
0,1
1
10
100
Books per 1000 Inhabitants
1000
The Hypothesis
The late 19th / early 20th century decline in
homicide was partly a result of self-control training
associated with a Victorian cultural emphasis on
domesticity, temperance, and rational recreation.
Victorian Christmas Card
The Data
Annual time-series of alcohol consumption per capita for England (1840-2012),
Norway (1851-2002), Sweden (1861-2005 and Denmark (1892-2002) .
Alcohol Consumption versus Homicide in Northern Europe
250
Alcohol-Denmark
Alcohol-Norway
Alcohol-Sweden
200
Alcohol-England
Homicide-Denmark
Homicide-Norway
150
Homicide-Sweden
Homicide-England
100
50
0
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Source: Eisner, M. (2014). From Swords to Words – Does Macro-Level Change in Self-Control predict Long-Term Variation in Homicide Rates.
Crime and Justice (in press).
The Hypothesis
The increase in violent crime from the early 1960s to the
90s and the decline since then reflect a move away from http://chrismaverick.deviantart.com
and a return to cultural values of self-control and discipline.
The Data
NGRAM frequencies of nine thematic fields related to loss of self-control (sex, drugs,
narcissicm), inner control (shame, politeness, honesty), and outer control (CCTV, anger
management, zero tolerance).
Corpus of all English books in google.books, no smoothing.
Al series standardized to Mean (1950-2008) = 100.
Trends in Cultural Themes related to Discipline and
Western World Homicide Rates
250
Index 1950-2008 = 100
200
Sex
Drugs
Narcissism
150
Shame
Politeness
Honesty
100
CCTV
Anger Management
Zero Tolerance
50
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Homicide rates
What Drives Homicide Down?
Governance and Civil Society
• Control over protection entrepreneurs
• Enforcement of ‘rule of law’, compliance
with authority
• ‘Civil service ethos’
• Legitimacy (“fairness”) of social order
• Inclusive state services
Bundles of Social Control Technologies
• Monitoring technologies (CCTV, Mobile)
• Control over disorderly conduct (ASBOs,
Rotberg (2004) When States Fail; Acemoglu and Robinson (2013)
Curfews, alcohol sale, hooliganism)
Why Nations Fail.
• Early screening, victim protection
services, home visits, CD treatment
• Probation & parole
Finkelhor (2013), Farrell et al. (2011)
Morality and Self Control
Coalitions of ‘moral entrepreneurs’ who
promote health, child development, civility,
self-control, respect, morality.
Proposal 1
Any sustained violence reduction will require
better governance and a movement towards
inclusive civil societies
Level
Examples
Universal
Rule of law
Civil servants
Anti-corruption policies
Control over private protection markets
Compliance with human rights
State legitimacy
Selective
Effective policing
Victim protection services
Effective complaints and internal affairs
procedures
Indicated
Absence of torture
Respect for rights of defendant
Fairness of judiciary
Availability of offender treatment
Theme
Legitimacy of Social Order
Background
Violence is not just an issue of individual pathology, it has systemic features
influenced by, amongst others, benefits of violence, costs of violence, and
beliefs about the benefits of cooperative behaviors, e.g. Eisner (2011).
What makes a social order legitimate?
– E.g. Tankebe and Bottoms , Tankebe (2012)
Why do people comply with moral rules?
– E.g. moral socialization, e.g. Malti et al (2009)
– developmental antecedents of legal cynicism (e.g. Nivette et al 2014)
• What systemic features of families, kindergartens, schools,
care-homes, prisons, states make people more likely to
follow rules?
Example 1
Salience of Risk Factors in Zurich and Montevideo
Police recorded crime
Montevideo
Zurich
Homicide
12.5
0.8
x 15
Robbery
1050
192
x5
Eisner and Trajtenberg (2014)
Towards a more effective prevention policy in Uruguay
Example 1
Salience of Risk Factors in Zurich and Montevideo
Montevideo
higher
1,2
0,8
0,4
Standard Deviations
Cohen’s d
0
-0,4
-0,8
Zurich higher
Police recorded crime
Montevideo
Zurich
Homicide
12.5
0.8
x 15
Robbery
1050
192
x5
-1,2
Eisner and Trajtenberg (2014)
Towards a more effective prevention policy in Uruguay
Example 1
Salience of Risk Factors in Zurich and Montevideo
Montevideo
higher
1,2
0,8
0,4
Standard Deviations
Cohen’s d
0
-0,4
-0,8
Zurich higher
Police recorded crime
Montevideo
Zurich
Homicide
12.5
0.8
x 15
Robbery
1050
192
x5
-1,2
Eisner and Trajtenberg (2014)
Towards a more effective prevention policy in Uruguay
Proposal 2
Any sustained violence reduction will rest on
more intensive and effective formal and informal
social control mechanisms
Universal
Effective supervision of children
Urban Planning
Elimination of physical money
CCTV monitoring
Selective
Control over truancy
Enforcement of alcohol regulations
Effective gun control
Indicated
Higher likelihood of punishment
Faster punishment
Electronic tagging
Example 2 Punishment for Homicide in
Honduras
Background
Punishment (costs for norm transgressions) is important. Punishment is here to stay
for the next 30 years. If the state doesn’t punish somebody else will.
There is quite some knowledge about what characteristics of punishment are more
or less conducive to deterrence. E.g. Nagin (2013).
What is the average ‘tariff’ for a murder in Honduras?
- Imprisonment rate 160 per 100,000, Daniel Ortega (2014)
- Assume 50% in prison for murder
- Homicide rate 80 per 100,000
-> Average tariff is 1 year per murder committed
Example 2 Punishment for Homicide in
Honduras
Background
Punishment (costs for norm transgressions) is important. Punishment is here to stay
for the next 30 years. If the state doesn’t punish somebody else will.
There is quite some knowledge about what characteristics of punishment are more
or less conducive to deterrence. E.g. Nagin (2013)
What is the average ‘tariff’ for a murder in Honduras?
- Imprisonment rate 160 per 100,000.
- Assume 50% in prison for murder
- Homicide rate 80 per 100,000
-> Average tariff is 1 year per murder committed
Today
Future
Slow
Fast
Severe
Lenient/moderate
Unfair
Fair
Rare
Certain
Homicide Scale
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Trends in 8
European Regions,
15th to 21st c.
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
Source:
Eisner (2014) Swords to
Words, C & J
< 1 Pacified
Societies
0
1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Homicide Scale
5-7% Conviction Rate
for Murder
5-7% Conviction Rate
for Murder
> 100 Civil War
Homicide Trends in 8
European Regions,
15th to 21st c.
Homicide Rate per 100,000
100
10-100 Violent
Societies
10
1-10 Semi-Pacified
Societies
1
Source:
Eisner (2014) Swords to
Words, C & J
< 1 Pacified
Societies
0
1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Proposal 3
A major decline in violence will require substantial
efforts by coalitions of moral entrepreneurs to
change moral beliefs and sensitivities.
What is morally right for adolescents in Amman?
Background: Moral Neutralisations of harm-doing are powerful facilitators of violence,
especially if supported by religious and political elites.
OK to kill if dishonored
family
OK for husband to beat if….
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Boys
Girls
N = 840
Source:
Eisner and Ghuneim (2013). Honor Killing
What is morally right for adolescents in Amman?
Background: Moral Neutralisations of harm-doing are powerful facilitators of violence,
especially if supported by religious and political elites.
OK to kill if dishonored
family
OK for husband to beat if….
100%
87%
90%
67%
70%
57%
60%
50%
40%
10%
0%
55%
58%
49%
39%
38%
39%
32%
30%
20%
78%
77%
80%
18%
18%
20%
25%
29%
Boys
13%
Girls
N = 840
Source:
Eisner and Ghuneim (2013). Honor Killing
Finally…..
Public Health
• Child development
• Early prevention
• Social skills
Justice and Governance
• Better policing
• Fight corruption
• Better justice
• Offender treatment
Civil Society
• Sectarian violence
• Minorities, ethnic tensions
• Transitional justice
• Political violence
Public Health
• Child development
• Early Prevention
• Social Skills
Justice and Governance
• Better policing
• Fight corruption
• Better justice
• Offender treatment
Civil Society
• Sectarian violence
• Minorities, ethnic tensions
• Transitional justice
• Political violence
Six Papers
Historical trends and patterns in homicide
Eisner, Manuel (2003). Long-term trends in violent crime. Crime and Justice: A Review
of Research, 30, 83-142.
Eisner, Manuel (2014). From Swords to Words. Crime and Justice, Vol 38.
Historical trends and patterns in elite violence
Eisner, Manuel (2011). Killing kings; patterns of regicide in Europe, 600-1800. British
Journal of Criminology,
General theory of violence
Eisner, Manuel (2010). The uses of violence: An examination of some cross-cutting
issues, International Journal of Conflict and Violence, 3, 40-59.
Cross-national comparison of homicide rates
Nivette, Amy and Manuel Eisner (2014). Political Legitimacy and Homicide: A crossnational analysis. Homicide Studies.
Macro-level prevention of homicide
Eisner, Manuel and Amy Nivette (2012). How to reduce the global homicide rate to 2
per 100,000 by 2060. in: Welsh, Brandon and Rolf Loeber (eds.). The Future of
Criminology. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• end