The chimp´s tale - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

The chimp’s tale
or,
Senile Agitation
the evolutionary tale
• our common ancestor the chiuman (or was it a
humanzee?) lived about 6 million years ago
• since then my ancestors, the chimps, and yours,
the humans, have been growing apart
water under the bridge
your technological triumphs
• allowed your population to balloon
• not such good news for chimps or our chimp
ancestors
your story and mine
• the first really bad news: tools 2.6 m years ago (ybp)
your story and mine
• the first really bad news: tools 2.6 m years ago (ybp)
• much, much worse news: fire 3/4m ybp
your story and mine
• the first really bad news: tools 2.6 m years ago (ybp)
• much, much worse news: fire 3/4m ybp
• awful: language, clothing and shelter: 1/2 m ybp
• seriously nasty: atlatl (spear thrower) 50k ybp
• welcome to the jungle: agriculture 10k ybp
• a plague on all our houses: wheels and sails 4kybp
Anthropocene
technology
owes ecology
an apology.
~Alan Edison
the bad news kept coming
• Metal working
• Mathematics
you thoug
ht you wer
• Writing
e pretty cl
ever
we weren’t
• Money
so sure
none of it
looked pro
• The printing press
mising to u
s
• Steam power
• Penicillin
• The internal combustion engine
• Refrigeration
the blight
• then you began to burn biomass buried long
before our common ancestors lived.
the blight
• then you began to burn biomass buried long
before our common ancestors lived.
suddenly fires in combustion chambers burned with no regard for day, night or the living world.
the blight
• then you began to burn biomass buried long
before our common ancestors lived.
• suddenly fires in combustion chambers burned
with no regard for day, night or the living world.
• you call it the Great Acceleration
the blight
• then you began to burn biomass buried long
before our common ancestors lived.
• suddenly fires in combustion chambers burned
with no regard for day, night or the living world.
• you call it the Great Acceleration
• we think of it as the Sudden Spoiling
• we think of it as the Sudden Spoiling
It’s not just chimps
• by comparison even with the world in 1950
• there’s just nothing left
remaining forest in Borneo
Population size
• when Henry Ford implemented assembly lines,
your population was about 1 650 000 000
• ours 1 500 000 (about 1000 times smaller)
• today your population is 6 865 500 000 give or
take a few
• while ours is 15 000 (458000 times smaller)
• looks like we’re losing
Population size
Humans in Côte d’Ivoire
Chimps in Côte d’Ivoire
Chimp population
to scale
don’t think we’ll be
taking over soon
Beyond the limits
What did you do about it?
Conserve species and habitats!
legislate!
Conservation isn’t stopping the rot
• you base “Conservation” largely on aesthetics,
ethics, and values
• you aim action at “Status” in DPSIR model
• you try to isolate system from “Pressure”
• i.e. act as if you weren’t part of the picture
Ecosystem services
• The penny drops...
• ...humans are part of the living world!
• ...dynamics of the living world involves humans
• So:
• ecosystem services: how nature benefits humans
Ecosystem services
• repugnant idea to some scientists
• “anthropocentric,” “materialistic”...
Science and society
“save Nature”
yes
yes
Science Advisor
“face crisis”
shared values
common goals
connected to
policy
no
Pure Scientist
yes
Pielke (2007)
The Honest Broker
no
reduce scope
of
choice
Issue Advocate
no
Honest Broker
you argue...
• humans need the services of ecosystems
• for well-being
• for profit and economic growth
• and therefore they have value
• and are worthy of protection
• we hope this is Pielke’s “Stealth Issue Advocacy”
• ...and the real issue is “protect life on Earth”
• but it isn’t always obvious
a tool for communication
• you think that if you show that humans need
ecosystems, they will protect them
• we chimps are not so sure
• what’s good for you can be bad for us
• instead of values (compassion, empathy,
•
conscience), you tend to speak of value (dollars,
euros, well-being)
is “what’s in it for me?” the way to run a planet?
a puzzle
• scarcity raises the price of the service
• sometimes eases pressure on ecosystem
• rarity value may increase pressure
• ownership and equity
“We told them the wealth would ‘trickle down’!”
we chimps have views, too
• about value
• about ecosystem services
• about human well-being
• about economic growth...
valuation
• satiation
• chimps are easily satiated
• you humans seem to be insatiable
• how do you figure out the value of anything?
ecosystem services
• the entire atmosphere, including N , is an
ecosystem service
2
• fire is as ecosystem service
• sleeping sickness makes us both ill but tsetse flies
protect my living space from your livestock
• services of the forest...
...ah, the forest
forest ecosystem services
• for us, it’s simple: life
• for you
• carbon sink, perhaps
• goods (timber, fuel, fodder, non-timber products)
• watersheds, gene-pools, beauty, climate, water,
nutrients, pollination, spirit...
forest
• oh, and bushmeat.
• that’s us.
caution needed
• please be careful
• don’t communicate that “everything is dispensable if it
does not add to human well-being”
• don’t let emotional and spiritual well-being take second
place
• please insist that the objective is long-term human wellbeing
• long-term implies sustainable
• sustainable gives chimps a chance (albeit slim)
sustainability
• The problem: sustained degradation of
ecosystems and loss of biodiversity
• The causes:
• an unsustainable economic paradigm
• the size of the human population
our advice to you
• look ahead:
• understand that biodiversity is changing
• your assumptions are losing credibility
• ecosystem services is an important perspective
• don’t set aside values: empathy and conscience
• understand that - once in a while - our interests
might be similar
research questions
• How to help humanity survive the next 100 years in dignity?
• How to establish a sustainable and mutually beneficial
relationship between yourselves and the rest of the living world?
• (or if you prefer, how to understand enough about the living
world to take on your proper role as gardeners?)
• How to prepare for a future that will look nothing like the past?
• How to mitigate and adapt to the loss of ecosystem services?
• How to prosper without growth?
END
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