Wal-Mart Expansion Market Impact Analysis

Transcription

Wal-Mart Expansion
Market Impact Analysis
Hwy. 11 & Hwy. 60
Huntsville, Ontario
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Submitted To:
Calloway REIT (Huntsville) Inc.
Submitted By:
December 2007
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WAL-MART
WAL-MART EXPANSION
MARKET IMPACT ANALYSIS
Gateway Commercial Campus
Hwy. 11 and Hwy. 60
Huntsville, Ontario
Submitted to:
Calloway REIT (Huntsville) Inc.
700 Applewood Crescent, Ste. 100
Vaughan, Ontario
L4K 5X3
Prepared By:
140 Renfrew Drive, Suite 201
Markham, Ontario
L3R 6B3
Tel: 905.513.0170
Fax: 905.513.0177
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
December 2007
07-1666
TOWN OF HUNTSVILLE: WAL-MART EXPANSION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. i
1.0
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1
1.1
Purpose of the Study .................................................................................................... 1
1.2
Methodology ................................................................................................................ 2
2.0
DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL ............................................................................................... 3
2.1
Location and Access .................................................................................................... 3
2.2
Gateway Commercial Campus ..................................................................................... 5
2.3
The Wal-Mart Expansion ............................................................................................. 6
2.4
Space Additions Tested ................................................................................................ 7
2.5
Official Plan and Zoning .............................................................................................. 8
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................. 10
3.1
Huntsville’s Commercial Structure ............................................................................ 10
3.2
Food Stores................................................................................................................. 13
3.2.1 Supermarket Context .................................................................................... 13
3.3
DSTM and Home Improvement Stores...................................................................... 14
3.3.1 Department Store Context ............................................................................. 14
3.4
Form, Function and Composition of Commercial Nodes .......................................... 15
3.4.1 Node 1: Historic Downtown Huntsville ........................................................ 15
3.4.2 Node 2: Other Downtown Huntsville ............................................................ 18
3.4.3 Node 3: Huntsville Place Mall ....................................................................... 20
3.4.4 Node 4: Highway 60 ...................................................................................... 20
3.4.5 Node 5: Highway 3 ........................................................................................ 21
3.4.6 Node 6: Main Street West of Downtown....................................................... 21
3.4.7 Node 7: Muskoka Commerce Park ................................................................ 22
3.5
Changes in Huntsville Since Wal-Mart’s Entry in 2004 ............................................ 23
3.6
Other Regional Shopping Destinations ...................................................................... 24
3.7
Planned and Proposed Commercial Developments in Huntsville.............................. 26
4.0
STUDY AREA & SPENDING .............................................................................................. 28
4.1
Study Area Delineation .............................................................................................. 28
4.2
Study Area Population and Projections...................................................................... 30
4.3
Study Area Income and Per Capita Spending ............................................................ 33
4.4
Study Area FSTM Expenditure Potential .................................................................. 35
4.5
Study Area DSTM+HI Expenditure Potential ........................................................... 36
5.0
MARKET AND IMPACT EVALUATION .......................................................................... 37
5.1
Customer Origin ......................................................................................................... 38
5.2
Supermarket Spending, Sales and Impact .................................................................. 39
5.3
DSTM Analysis .......................................................................................................... 42
5.3.1 Department Store Spending, Sales and Impact .............................................. 43
5.4
Other DSTM Store Spending, Sales and Impact ........................................................ 47
MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
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6.0
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................... 52
FIGURES
2.1
Local Context ......................................................................................................................... 3
2.2
Regional Context ...................................................................................................................... 4
2.3
Site Configuration .................................................................................................................... 6
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
3.11
3.12
3.13
3.14
3.15
Commercial Context ............................................................................................................... 11
Brendale Plaza ....................................................................................................................... 13
Huntsville Place Mall ............................................................................................................. 14
Main Street ........................................................................................................................ 16
Main Street
....................................................................................................................... 16
Composition of At-Grade Uses in Historic Downtown Huntsville ........................................ 17
Historic Downtown Huntsville ............................................................................................... 18
Price Chopper ....................................................................................................................... 19
Canadian Tire ....................................................................................................................... 19
A& P
....................................................................................................................... 20
Zellers
....................................................................................................................... 20
Shoppers Drug Mart ............................................................................................................... 21
Wal-Mart
....................................................................................................................... 22
Robinson’s Independent Grocer ............................................................................................. 22
Major Planned and Proposed Commercial Development ...................................................... 26
4.1
4.2
Study Area
....................................................................................................................... 29
Locations of Approved and Proposed Residential Developments ......................................... 32
5.1
5.2
5.3
Supermarket Spending Captured by Huntsville Supermarkets ............................................. 39
Department Store Spending Captured by Huntsville Stores .................................................. 43
Other DSTM Store Spending Captured by Huntsville Other DSTM Stores .......................... 48
TABLES
2.1
Gateway Commercial Campus: Existing Built Space (in sq.ft. GFA) .................................... 5
2.2
Wal-Mart Expansion (in sq.ft. GFA) ........................................................................................ 7
2.3
Existing and Proposed Development and Zoning .................................................................... 9
3.1
3.2
Town of Huntsville Inventory of At-Grade Retail Commercial Space (in sq.ft. GLA) ......... 12
Huntsville Inventory Comparison .......................................................................................... 23
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
Study Area Historic Permanent Resident Population ............................................................. 30
Study Area Population and Forecast ...................................................................................... 31
Draft Plan Approved and Registered Plans of Subdivision (As at August, 2007) ................. 32
Income and Income Indexes ................................................................................................... 33
Per Capita FSTM and DSTM+HI Expenditures .................................................................... 34
Huntsville Food Store Expenditure Potential Forecast (in 2006 Constant Dollars) ............... 35
Huntsville DSTM+HI Expenditure Potential Forecast (in 2006 Constant Dollars) ............... 36
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5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Retail Space Additions ........................................................................................................... 37
Huntsville Customer Origin License Plate Survey Results .................................................... 38
Study Area Supermarket Spending and Capture by Huntsville Supermarkets and the WalMart Food Component ........................................................................................................... 40
Huntsville Supermarket Sales and Impact with Addition of the Expanded Wal-Mart Food
Component and Price Chopper Expansion ............................................................................. 41
Study Area Department Store Spending and Capture by Huntsville Department Stores ....... 44
Huntsville Department Store Sales and Impact (With Expansion of Wal-Mart of up to 20,000
sq.ft., excluding Expansion of Food Component) .................................................................. 45
Study Area Other DSTM Store Spending and Capture by Huntsville Stores ........................ 49
Huntsville Other DSTM Store Sales and Impact ................................................................... 50
APPENDICES
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
Inventory of Grade-Related Commercial Space in the Huntsville Urban Area
Customer Origin License Plate Survey Results
Summary of Study Area Consumer Telephone Survey Results
Proposed Retail Space Additions in the Huntsville Urban Area
Per Capita Retail Expenditure Definition and Derivation
Impact Analysis Detailed Tables
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE STUDY
Malone Given Parsons Ltd. (“MGP”) has been retained in regard to this
property since 2001. The Market Impact Analysis documented in this report
examines the demand for and competitive effects arising from the planned
expansion of the existing Wal-Mart department store in the Gateway
Commercial Campus area within Muskoka Commerce Park.
PROPOSED
DEVELOPMENT
The existing Wal-Mart store, which measures approximately 84,900 sq.ft.,
opened in January 2004. The application seeks increases in the total gross
floor area cap for the site (to 260,000 sq.ft.) and the maximum gross
leasable floor area for a department store (to 140,000 sq.ft.) in order to
accommodate an expansion of 55,000 sq.ft. Much of this additional space
will be used to accommodate an expansion of the store’s food offerings,
beyond what is typically found in the existing pantry.
The requirement for this study is contained in the policies for the Gateway
Commercial Campus contained in the Town of Huntsville’s Official Plan.
Section 4.6.4.9 of the Town of Huntsville Official Plan contains site-specific
policies for phasing and the requirement for a “market impact report”:
“The Development of the Gateway Commercial Campus will be phased.
The maximum gross floor area of the first phase of the development shall
not exceed 19,510 sq.m (210,000 sq. ft). Prior to any expansion beyond
the first phase of the Gateway Commercial Campus, Council shall
require the preparation of a market impact report and other supporting
studies. The ultimate gross floor area of all buildings shall not exceed
24,155 sq.m (260,000 sq. ft).”
The following photo illustrates the configuration of the site relative to
Highway 11 and Highway 60.
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COMMERCIAL
CONTEXT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Huntsville serves a large regional market, which includes the substantial
seasonal resident population in Muskoka. It also serves tourists, visitors
and the travelling public. The commercial areas within Huntsville (as
illustrated in the map that follows) serve different roles in catering to these
markets and vary in terms of their form and composition.
A total of 1.5 million square feet of grade-related commercial space,
including retail, restaurants and services, is located within the Huntsville
Urban Area. Of this, 948,200 sq.ft. was classified as retail, including
173,300 sq.ft. of FSTM space, 738,900 sq.ft. of DSTM and Home
Improvement Space (DSTM+HI) and 35,900 sq.ft. of Other Retail space.
The Historic Downtown has a range of independent retailers, unique shops
and services not found elsewhere in Huntsville. This diverse array of retail
and service establishments in the Historic Downtown serves the residents of
Huntsville, the seasonal population and the surrounding regional area. It is
our opinion that the Historic Downtown is fulfilling its planned function as
described in the Town’s Official Plan.
The area of the Downtown east of the river, comprised of Brendale Square
and automobile-oriented plazas and freestanding stores, has a relatively
higher level of vacancy, influenced by several large vacant units, including
part of the former Robinson’s Independent Grocer store.
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STUDY AREA
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Study Area employed in our analysis reflects our assessment of the
geographic area from which Huntsville draws the majority of its trade. The
Study Area is presented in the following figure:
The current Study Area population includes 36,810 permanent residents and
an estimated seasonal population of 51,830 residents. The permanent
resident population is forecast to increase to 38,840 by 2015.
Our review of draft plan approved and registered plans of subdivision in the
Town of Huntsville confirm that there will be substantial population growth
in the Town of Huntsville. The permanent resident population in the Central
Zone, which includes the Huntsville Urban Area, is forecast to increase from
13,460 to 15,140 residents over the forecast period.
In terms of spending, we anticipate that total spending at Food Stores by
Study Area residents will increase from $94.3 million in 2007 to $102.4
million by 2015, an increase of $8.1 million. Spending at DSTM and Home
Improvement stores will increase from $237.2 million in 2007 to $279.2
million by 2015, an increase of $42.0 million. These estimates are
expressed in real or constant dollars, which exclude inflation.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MARKET IMPACT
Our analysis examines existing and future sales for the following retail
categories: Supermarkets; Department stores; and, Other DSTM stores
(Non-Department Store DSTM categories, excl. Home Improvement).
Supermarket and
Grocery Impact
The planned expansion of the Wal-Mart food component will compete
primarily with existing supermarkets. Based on our analysis, we expect that
the existing A&P and the Robinson’s Independent Grocer could experience
a decline in sales of up to 16% in 2009, dissipating to 10% below current
sales levels by 2015. We do not expect that such declines would lead to the
closure of either store.
Department Store
Impact
Our analysis indicates that the expansion of the non-food component of the
Wal-Mart store would have only minor impacts on the sales of the Zellers
store in 2009 (a decline of 9%), with recovery soon after 2011. Given the
recent opening of the Wal-Mart store in Bracebridge, we expect that the
expansion of the Huntsville Wal-Mart will not result in any immediate
substantial increase in its current sales. Rather, the expansion will serve to
maintain current sales levels initially, and achieve a future growth at a rate
consistent with overall market.
Other DSTM
Given the relatively modest size of the non-food component of the WalMart expansion, we do not expect that there will be any significant shift in
the proportion of DSTM spending directed to department stores. In the
Other DSTM category, there is more than sufficient growth potential in the
market to offset the space additions examined in this report.
CONCLUSIONS
The conclusions arising from our analysis of the Huntsville market are as
follows:
1. Huntsville’s Historic Downtown area is healthy with few vacancies.
2. The area of Downtown east of the river has a higher level of vacancy;
however, this includes the former premises of Robinson’s Independent
Grocer (25,400 sq.ft.), which will be partially re-tenanted by Staples and
is already partially tenanted by an LCBO. The relocation of Shoppers
Drug Mart to this area also indicates that the area remains an attractive
location.
3. The local market is expected to continue to grow.
4. The Wal-Mart expansion will provide an increased level of service and
selection and will re-enforce Huntsville’s role as a major focus for
shopping and services in the region.
5. The planned expansion of the Wal-Mart food component of up to 35,000
sq.ft. combined with the expansion of the Price Chopper will result in
increased competition in the supermarket category.
6. The planned expansion of the Wal-Mart non-food component of up to
20,000 sq.ft. is not expected to have any significant effect on the Zellers
store at Huntsville Place Mall or on Other DSTM stores in Huntsville.
7. It is our conclusion that the planned expansion of the Wal-Mart store
would not result in any impacts that would compromise the planned
function of any existing commercial area, including the Downtown.
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1.0
INTRODUCTION
1.0
INTRODUCTION
Malone Given Parsons Ltd. (“MGP”) has been retained in regard to this
property since 2001. MGP was initially retained to undertake the Market
Study and Impact Evaluation for a new format shopping centre, proposed
as part of the Muskoka Commerce Park development located south east of
Highway 60 and Highway 11 in the Town of Huntsville. This
development is now built and is referred to as the “Gateway Commercial
Campus” in the Town’s Official Plan and for the purposes of this report.
The Gateway Commercial Campus was approved by the Town of
Huntsville in February 2002 and by the Ontario Municipal Board in
January 2003. It is anchored by a Wal-Mart department store, which
opened in January 2004, and Robinson’s Independent Grocer supermarket
(Loblaws’ YIG banner, herein referred to as the “YIG”). The YIG was a
relocation and expansion of an existing store formerly located on the south
side of King William Street, west of Highway 60, which opened at the
Gateway Commercial Campus in the spring of 2004.
The Market Impact Analysis documented in this report examines the
demand for and competitive effects arising from the planned expansion of
the existing Wal-Mart department store in the Gateway Commercial
Campus area within Muskoka Commerce Park.
1.1
Purpose of
the Study
This Market Impact Analysis is one of the studies required in support of an
application to expand the Wal-Mart department store. The existing WalMart store, which measures approximately 84,900 sq.ft., opened in January
2004. The Wal-Mart store is expected to expand to approximately 140,000
sq.ft, a net increase of approximately 55,000 sq.ft. Much of this additional
space will be used to accommodate an expansion of the store’s food
offerings, beyond what is typically found in the existing pantry.
The requirement for this study is contained in the policies for the Gateway
Commercial Campus contained in the Town of Huntsville’s Official Plan.
The policies contemplate a two-phase approach to the development of the
Gateway Commercial Campus:
1. The first phase of development would have a maximum floor area of
210,000 sq.ft., including the two anchor stores and a limited amount of
retail and service commercial space.
2. The second phase of development was intended to accommodate an
expansion of each of the two anchor stores to a maximum of 260,000
sq.ft. for the entire site. Further planning approvals are required to
permit these expansions.
The anticipated 55,000 sq.ft. expansion of the Wal-Mart store will increase
the total floor area of the shopping centre to approximately 253,300 sq.ft.
However, for the purposes of the Zoning By-law amendment, the
application seeks to increase the total floor area of the shopping centre to
260,000 sq.ft., which includes an existing provision in the By-law which
provides for a potential future expansion of the YIG.
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1.0
INTRODUCTION
Section 4.6.4.9 of the Town of Huntsville Official Plan contains sitespecific policies for phasing and the requirement for a “market impact
report”:
The maximum gross floor area of the first phase of the development
shall not exceed 19,510 sq.m (210,000 sq. ft). Prior to any expansion
beyond the first phase of the Gateway Commercial Campus, Council
shall require the preparation of a market impact report and other
supporting studies. The ultimate gross floor area of all buildings shall
not exceed 24,155 sq.m (260,000 sq. ft).”
The following methodology reflects the standard and accepted practice for
assessing market impact.
1.2
Methodology
This Market Impact Analysis examines the existing commercial context of
Huntsville and its regional competitive environment, current sales levels of
retail stores in Huntsville, market growth and future sales levels of existing
and proposed retail stores, taking into account the expansion of the WalMart store and other space additions, and any potential impacts arising
from the proposed Wal-Mart expansion.
In the course of carrying out this market impact analysis, the following
work was undertaken:
A review of the site location, access and context;
Customer origin licence plate surveys at several commercial locations in
Huntsville;
Delineation of a study area for the purposes of analyzing market support
and trade patterns based on existing customer origin patterns, as well as
current and future regional competitive factors (the “Study Area”);
An in-home consumer telephone survey of households in the Study
Area;
A quantitative and qualitative assessment of the structure and
composition of existing commercial areas in Huntsville, including an
inventory of grade-related commercial floor space;
A review of planned and proposed competitive facilities in Huntsville
and surrounding communities;
Forecast of the permanent and seasonal resident population within the
Study Area;
Analysis of retail spending by permanent and seasonal residents within
the Study Area;
Estimates of current sales levels of retail stores in Huntsville and
forecast of sales, taking into account proposed space additions; and,
An assessment of the nature and magnitude of any competitive effects
arising from the proposed space additions on existing stores, shopping
centres and commercial areas.
The research analysis, findings, and conclusions are summarised in this
Market Impact Analysis report.
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2.0
DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL
2.0
DEVELOPMENT
PROPOSAL
This section of the report includes a brief overview of the Gateway
Commercial Campus site context and the proposed Wal-Mart expansion,
including:
the site context, location and access;
the size and tenant mix of the existing shopping centre;
the size and nature of the Wal-Mart expansion; and,
relevant policies contained in the Official Plan and Zoning.
2.1
Location and
Access
The Gateway Commercial Campus is located within the Muskoka
Commerce Park area, an employment area generally located at the
southeast quadrant of Highway 11 and Highway 60.
The Gateway Commercial Campus, which is located at the intersection of
Highway 60 and Highway 11, is well-positioned to serve both residents of
the Huntsville Urban Area and a much larger regional area. Figure 2.1,
below, illustrates the location of the Gateway Commercial Campus within
the Town of Huntsville Urban Area. The main local access routes include
Centre Street, which runs south from Highway 60 and continues south
through the Central Business District, and Highway 60, which runs eastwest along the northern boundary of the site.
Figure 2.1: Local Context MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
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2.0
The proximity of the Gateway Commercial Campus to Highway 11 and the
Highway 11/Highway 60 intersection provide excellent accessibility to the
regional, seasonal, visitor and tourist markets. Highway 11 is a major
travel route and a gateway to Muskoka. This is reflected in traffic counts
by the Ministry of Transportation. The Average Annual Daily Traffic
(AADT) counts along Highway 11 between Muskoka Rd. 3 and Highway
60 totalled 37,100 in 2004, the most recent data available.1
The following map illustrates the Gateway Commercial Campus within the
broader regional context.
Figure 2.2: Regional Context 1
2004 Provincial Highways Annual Average Daily Traffic Report
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2.2
Gateway
Commercial
Campus
2.0
The existing, built development at the Gateway Commercial Campus totals
approximately 190,800 sq.ft. of retail, restaurant and service commercial
space, presented in the following table. The total excludes a planned 7,500
sq.ft. building (Building E2), which is permitted within the phase 1
development, but has not yet been built. Including Building E2, the total
phase 1 development will be 198,300 sq.ft.
Table 2.1 Gateway Commercial Campus: Existing Built Space (in sq.ft. GFA) Anchors:
Wal-Mart
Robinson's Independent Grocer (YIG) (excluding mezzanin
Total Anchor Space
YIG Accessory Gas Bar
Ancillary Space:
Bulk Barn
Mark's Work Warehouse
Dollar Giant(1)
Telus Mobile Phone Centre
Subtotal Ancillary FSTM+DSTM Tenants
First Choice Hair Cutters
Quizno's Sub Shop(2)
Coffee Cabin
Kelsey's
East Side Mario's
Subtotal Other Ancillary Tenants
Vacant Unit
Total Ancillary Space
Total Existing Built Space:
Plus: Building E2 (Approved, Unbuilt)
Total Approved Phase 1 Space:
84,900
68,800
153,700
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
500
sq.ft.
4,000
8,000
9,200
1,300
22,500
1,000
1,400
1,300
5,000
4,000
12,700
1,400
36,600
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
190,800
7,500
198,300
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
sq.ft.
Notes:
1. The Dollar Giant was not in operation at the time of our inventory or telephone surveys, we
therefore have treated it as a space addition.
2. The Quizno's Sub shop was not in operation at the time of our inventory.
The anchors include a Wal-Mart department store, which opened in January
2004, and Robinson’s Independent Grocer supermarket, which opened later
that spring. Robinson’s Independent Grocer, which includes an accessory
gas bar, was a relocation and expansion of an existing store formerly
located on the south side of King William Street. The Gateway
Commercial Campus has a planned ancillary component of 44,100 sq.ft., of
which 36,600 sq.ft. is presently built.
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2.0
The layout of the existing development is presented in the following figure.
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Figure 2.3: Site Configuration 2.3
The Wal-Mart
Expansion
The application seeks to permit an expansion of the existing Wal-Mart
store, contemplated in the second phase of the development. The Wal-Mart
would expand from its existing size of approximately 84,900 sq.ft. to
approximately 140,000 sq.ft., an increase of 55,000 sq.ft.
Much of the expansion will be used to expand the food component of the
Wal-Mart store. The food offering in the existing store is limited to a
pantry section. The expanded store will feature a more diverse merchandise
offering including a full range of fresh and frozen grocery store type items
which will improve the level of service and convenience to residents of
Huntsville and the surrounding area.
It is our understanding that approximately 35,000 sq.ft. of the 55,000 sq.ft.
expansion will be comprised of an expanded food component (net of the
existing pantry area) including the display, cold storage and food
preparation area as well as some additional space dedicated to checkouts,
and service space. The balance of space, about 20,000 sq.ft., will be
composed of additional general merchandise space resulting from an
increase to the building area and the re-merchandising of the former pantry
area after relocation of that space to the expanded food component area.
With the addition of the 35,000 sq.ft. expanded food component, the total
amount of food and food-related space in the expanded store will increase
to approximately 40,000 sq.ft. This includes the existing pantry of
approximately 5,000 sq.ft., which we analyze as conventional department
store space.
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2.4
Space Additions
Tested
2.0
For the purposes analyzing the space addition associated with the Wal-Mart
expansion, we have tested an expansion of 55,000 sq.ft. (vs. the planned
46,500 sq.ft.), which includes:
an expanded food component of 35,000 sq.ft. (net of the existing
pantry) tested as being supermarket competitive; and,
an expanded conventional department store component of 20,000 sq.ft.
A comparison of the proposal and what we have tested in our analysis is
presented in the following table.
Table 2.2 Wal‐Mart Expansion (in sq.ft. GFA)
Existing
Proposed
Space: Expansion:
Expansion as Tested in Market Study:
Non-Food Space
Existing Pantry
Subtotal Conventional Dept. Store(1)
Expanded Food Component
Total:
79,900
5,000
84,900
-84,900
20,000
-20,000
35,000
55,000
Total
Space:
99,900
5,000
104,900
35,000
139,900
Notes:
1. Includes approximately 5,000 sq.ft. associated with the existing pantry.
2. Total food and food related floor space in the expanded Wal-Mart store, which includes the
expanded food component and the existing pantry, is estimated at approximately 40,000
sq.ft.
The size of the expansion as tested (55,000 sq.ft.) reflects the maximum
size requested for the purposes of the By-law and is a conservative
approach from the standpoint of assessing market impact. Based on what
we have tested, the total amount of food and food-related space, inclusive
of the expanded food component and the existing pantry (which we
consider to be conventional department store space for the purposes of
analysis), would account for approximately 40,000 sq.ft.
In addition to the 55,000 sq.ft. of space associated with the Wal-Mart site
tested in our analysis, we have also assumed that Building E2 (7,500 sq.ft.)
and the existing vacant 1,400 sq.ft. unit could potentially accommodate a
DSTM retail tenant or tenants.
Together, the existing built space of 190,800 sq.ft. and the retail space
additions analyzed in our impact analysis of 63,900 sq.ft., total 254,700
sq.ft.
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2.5
Official Plan and
Zoning
2.0
The policies regarding the Gateway Commercial Campus designation are
set out in Section 4.6.4 of the Town of Huntsville Official Plan. The
planned expansion of the Gateway Commercial Campus is contemplated in
these policies. It was intended the phasing provisions of the Official Plan
policies would permit the future expansion of the two anchor stores, subject
to requirements set out in these provisions.
Section 4.6.4.1 describes the general intent of the designation as follows:
“The area designated Gateway Commercial Campus (GCC) shall
permit the development of a planned commercial centre intended to
accommodate large single tenant retail buildings and buildings with
groups of tenants all designed in a campus environment with a high
degree of urban design.” (pg. 47)
Section 4.6.4.7 specifies minimum sizes for the two large anchors, stating:
“The Gateway Commercial Campus development shall generally
consist of two large anchor outlets, each having a minimum gross
floor area of 4,645m2 (50,000 sq.ft.)” (pg. 48)
Section 4.6.4.9 outlines the phasing of the Gateway Commercial Campus,
which is implemented through a total cap on gross floor area:
“The maximum gross floor area of the first phase of the
development shall not exceed 19,510 m2 (210,000 sq. ft). Prior to
any expansion beyond the first phase of the Gateway Commercial
Campus, Council shall require the preparation of a market impact
report and other supporting studies. The ultimate gross floor area
of all buildings shall not exceed 24,155 m2 (260,000 sq. ft).” (pg.
48)
As the expansion of the Gateway Commercial Campus is contemplated in
the Official Plan Policies, no amendment to the Official Plan is required;
however, the requirements set out in Section 4.6.4.9 must be satisfied to
permit the expansion.
The implementing Zoning By-law (By-Law Number 2002-20P) amended
the Zoning By-law (74-8) of the Corporation of the Town of Huntsville.
The amendment created a new Zoning category, C6, in order to recognize
the distinct characteristics of the Gateway Commercial Campus.
The C6-1442 zoning permits the current retail and service commercial uses
on the site (including a supermarket and department store). The Zoning Bylaw establishes the following development regulations for the site and
specifically for the department store:
2
Maximum Gross Floor Area on the lands shall be 19,510 m (210,000
sq.ft).
2
Maximum Gross Floor Area for a department store shall be 7,715 m
8

2.0
(83,000 sq.ft). In 2003, a variance to the Zoning By-law was granted to
increase the size of the department store to 7,897m2 (85,000 sq.ft).
Maximum Gross Floor Area for a supermarket shall be 7,488 m2
(80,603 sq.ft.).
The following table summarizes the existing and proposed Zoning:
Table 2.3 Existing and Proposed Development and Zoning
Anchor:
Department Store:
Supermarket (ground floor area):
Subtotal Anchors:
Plus: YIG Gas Bar
Zoning By-law:
Existing
Proposed
Max GFA:
Max GFA:
Existing:
Proposed:
84,900
68,800
139,900
68,800
153,700
208,700
165,600
220,600
500
500
n/a
n/a
n/a
35,250
n/a
n/a
n/a
35,250
n/a
n/a
(2)
85,000
80,600
(4)
140,000
80,600
Ancillary:
Other Specialty Food Store CRU
DSTM CRU Space
Service and Restaurant
Vacant
4,000
18,500
12,700
1,400
Subtotal Ancillary:
32,600
40,100
n/a
n/a
186,800
249,300
210,000
260,000
Total Gross Floor Area:
(1)
4,000
27,400
12,700
--
(3)
(5)
Notes:
1. Includes the 9,200 sq.ft. Dollar Giant which was not in operation at the time of our inventory or
surveys and is tested as a space addition in our analysis.
2. Reflects department store size after 46,500 sq.ft. expansion as per concept plan.
This assumes that both Building E, at 7,500 sq.ft. and the vacant 1,400 sq.ft. unit would be
3. occupied by DSTM tenants.
4. Reflects maximum ground floor area permitted in the By-law. Total maximum gross floor area is
capped at 98,110 in the Zoning By-law; however, upper level (mezzanine) floorspace is not
5. Total expansion of 55,000 sq.ft. tested in market study, including net expanded food component
of up to 35,000 sq.ft. and general merchandise component of up to 20,000 sq.ft.
An amendment to the Zoning By-law is therefore required to increase the
Maximum Gross Floor Area for the department store use and the total
project as follows:
Maximum Gross Floor Area for a department store of up to 140,000
sq.ft.; and,
Maximum Gross Floor Area on the lands of up to 260,000 sq.ft.
We note that the 260,000 sq.ft. includes existing provisions in the Zoning
By-law that provide for a potential future expansion of the YIG of up to
92,110 sq.ft. gross floor area and ground floor area of up to 80,600 sq.ft.
(excluding upper-floor mezzanine space). As we have no information
regarding whether Loblaws plan to expand the store, or the timing or nature
of such an expansion, we have no basis for testing it in our impact analysis.
9
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
3.0
COMMERCIAL
CONTEXT
This section of the report discusses Huntsville’s existing commercial structure
and its competitive environment, including:
the general characteristics of existing commercial areas, both qualitative
and quantitative;
changes in the character or amount of retail space located in existing
commercial areas since the opening of the existing Wal-Mart store in
2004;
identification of stores or areas that would experience any impacts
arising from the Wal-Mart expansion; and,
other communities that influence trade area of Huntsville stores and the
retail spending patterns of study area residents.
3.1
Huntsville’s
Commercial
Structure
Huntsville serves a large regional market, which includes the substantial
seasonal resident population in Muskoka. It also serves tourists, visitors and the
travelling public. The commercial areas within Huntsville serve different roles
in catering to these markets and vary in terms of their form and composition.
A comprehensive inventory of grade-related commercial space, including retail,
restaurant and service uses, was carried out in August 2007. An update of the
Historic Downtown was performed in October 2007. The inventory included all
space within the Town of Huntsville Urban Area and was grouped into the
following general categories:
Food Store Type Merchandise (FSTM);
Department Store Type Merchandise (DSTM);
Home Improvement, Building Supply Stores and Garden Centres (HI);
Services;
Restaurants and Entertainment uses;
Main Floor Office and Government Space; and,
Vacant space.
For the purposes of assessing any impacts on the planned function of existing
commercial areas, the inventory was grouped into eight commercial nodes,
delineated based on their location and the commercial structure established in
the Town’s Official Plan.
These commercial nodes used in our impact analysis are as follows:
Historic Downtown Huntsville (as defined in the Official Plan);
Other Downtown Huntsville;
Huntsville Place Mall;
Highway 60;
Highway 3;
Main Street, west of Downtown;
Muskoka Commerce Park; and,
Other Stores and Services located elsewhere in the Huntsville Urban
Area (Other Huntsville).
10
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The location and geographic extent of these nodes are illustrated in the
following figure:
Figure 3.1: Commercial Context A total of 1.5 million square feet of grade-related commercial space, including
retail, restaurants and services, is located within the Huntsville Urban Area. Of
this, 948,100 sq.ft. was classified as retail, including 173,300 sq.ft. of FSTM
space, 738,900 sq.ft. of DSTM and Home Improvement Space (DSTM+HI) and
35,900 sq.ft. of Other Retail space.
The distribution of space by category by retail node and commercial category is
presented in the following table.
11
342,400
14,400
356,800
4,600
17,800
45,900
0
11,800
13,600
6,700
12,400
15,400
25,700
131,500
6,300
0
0
6,300
0
9,600
33,000
44,500
20,200
9,000
2,000
9,600
42,700
0
170,600
0
11,600
11,600
342,900
76,400
419,300
2,900
11,600
38,400
9,400
18,000
4,500
13,200
26,100
10,200
0
119,800
5,000
15,700
5,600
26,300
0
101,300
1,000
1,600
13,200
5,900
8,100
6,300
5,300
15,000
157,700
19,800
4,800
24,600
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
2
174,300
200
174,500
0
0
4,800
0
1,300
4,200
0
1,200
0
0
11,500
0
0
0
0
88,100
0
8,000
20,500
0
0
1,200
3,600
5,800
0
127,200
35,000
600
35,600
Huntsville
Place Mall
3
49,100
18,300
67,400
0
0
8,700
0
600
0
0
6,300
5,400
1,400
22,400
0
0
0
0
0
0
10,400
0
2,600
0
1,900
0
700
1,400
17,000
0
9,700
9,700
Highway 60
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16,500
2,000
18,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
8,900
7,600
0
0
16,500
Highway 3
5
21,800
16,000
37,800
3,300
0
3,900
0
0
0
2,500
2,400
7,500
0
16,300
0
0
0
0
0
1,200
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,200
0
1,000
1,000
Main Street
West
of Downtown
6
Notes:
Comprehensive inventory of grade-related commercial space carried out in August 2007. An update of the Historic Downtown was preformed in October 2007
Total Space
Total Occupied Space
Plus: Vacant Space
Total Measured Space
Plus: Public Administration
Plus: Other Office
Services and Restaurants
Food Services & Drinking Places
Repair and Maintenance Services
Personal & Laundry Services
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Professional Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Total Services and Restaurants
Other Retail
Second Hand Merchandise
Liquor / Beer / Wine
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
DSTM and Home Improvement
Department Stores
Other General Merchandise Stores
Pharmacies and Personal Care Stores
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
Electronics, Appliances, Computer and Software Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Building Material, Garden Equipment, Supplies Dealers
Total DSTM and Home Improvement
FSTM
Supermarkets
Other Food
Total FSTM
Node:
Historic
Downtown
Huntsville
1
Table 3.1: Town of Huntsville Inventory of Grade‐Related Commercial Space (in sq.ft. GLA) Market Impact Analysis
208,600
6,000
214,600
0
6,700
19,900
0
1,000
4,900
0
1,600
0
0
27,400
0
0
0
0
84,900
0
0
8,000
0
0
1,300
0
0
7,500
101,700
68,800
4,000
72,800
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
7
225,900
0
225,900
0
2,300
8,400
0
5,000
0
0
3,400
22,000
0
38,800
0
0
3,300
3,300
0
15,100
0
0
0
0
1,700
0
0
146,700
163,500
0
18,000
18,000
Other
Huntsville
8
12
1,381,500
133,300
1,514,800
10,800
38,400
130,000
9,400
37,700
27,200
31,300
61,000
60,500
27,100
384,200
11,300
15,700
8,900
35,900
173,000
127,200
52,400
74,600
36,000
14,900
16,200
19,500
54,500
170,600
738,900
123,600
49,700
173,300
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
3.2
Food Stores
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The Food Store Type Merchandise (FSTM) category includes
supermarkets, grocery stores, jug milk, convenience stores, bulk food,
bakeries, candy/nut, green grocer, meat markets, fish and seafood markets,
delicatessens, cheese stores, coffee/tea shops and other specialty food
stores.
173,300 sq.ft. of FSTM space is located in the Huntsville Urban Area,
including:
three supermarkets totaling 123,600 sq.ft. (71% of total FSTM
space); and,
49,700 sq.ft. of other food store space, including specialty food and
convenience stores (29% of total FSTM space).
3.2.1
Supermarket
Context
The three existing supermarkets in Huntsville are:
The 19,800 sq.ft. Price Chopper situated on Cann Street in
Brendale Square in Downtown Huntsville;

The 35,000 sq.ft. A&P located on King William Street below
Highway 60 in Huntsville Place Mall; and

The 68,800 Robinson’s Your Independent Grocer which co-anchors
the Gateway Commercial Campus at the junction Highway 11 and
Highway 60.
A building permit application has been approved that would enable the
Price Chopper to expand the existing store by about 12,500 sq.ft. The
expansion would involve the redevelopment of existing vacant units in
Brendale Square.
HOME HARDWARE
ST.
CANN ST.
EY
CHAFF
PRICE CHOPPER
JOH
N
ST.
DOLLARAMA
Figure 3.2: Brendale Square Plaza MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
13
3.3
DSTM and Home
Improvement Stores
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The Department Store Type Merchandise and Home Improvement
(DSTM+HI) categories include Department Stores, Other General
Merchandise Stores, Pharmacies and Personal Care stores, Clothing and
Clothing accessories store, furniture and home furnishing stores, electronic,
appliance, computer and software stores, sporting goods, hobby, book,
music stores, miscellaneous store retailers and building material, garden
equipment and supplies dealers.
DSTM+HI accounts for 738,900 sq.ft., almost half (48%) of the total
occupied retail and service commercial space in the Huntsville Urban Area.
The 738,900 sq.ft. includes:
3.3.1
Department
Store Context

173,000 sq.ft. of Department Store space (23% of total);

395,300 sq.ft. of Other DSTM store space (54% of total); and,

170,600 sq.ft. of Home Improvement stores space (23% of total).
The presence of larger DSTM and Home Improvement retailers reflect
Huntsville’s evolving role as a major retail and service centre in Muskoka.
These include its two existing department stores:

the 84,900 sq.ft. Wal-Mart, discussed in Section 2.0, which coanchors the Gateway Commercial Campus at the junction Highway
11 and Highway 60; and,

an 88,100 sq.ft Zellers situated on King William Street below
Highway 60 in Huntsville Place Mall.
The Zellers store, which pre-dates the Wal-Mart store, is shown in the
figure, below.
ZELLERS
A&P
KING WILLIAM ST.
Figure 3.3: Huntsville Place Mall While the Huntsville Wal-Mart was the only location in the District of
Muskoka, a second Wal-Mart store recently opened in Bracebridge. This
change will affect the amount of spending directed to Huntsville by
residents of Bracebridge to some extent.
14
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
3.4
Form, Function and
Composition of
Commercial Nodes
Having described the general characteristics of the commercial inventory,
the following sections provide a brief description of each of the
commercial nodes identified in the Huntsville Urban Area.
3.4.1
Node 1
Historic Downtown
Huntsville
The Central Business District, as identified in the Town of Huntsville
Official Plan, encompasses an area which extends along Main Street / King
William Street from Station Street, east to Hwy. 60. However, within this
area, we observe that the form and character of the area west of the river is
very different than that of the area which extends east of the river to
Highway 60. We have therefore analyzed these areas as two separate
commercial nodes, which we refer to as:
Historic Downtown Huntsville – delineated as the area along Main
Street extending from Station Street to the river; and,
Other Downtown Huntsville – delineated as the area along Main
Street / King William Street extending from the river, west to Hwy.
60.
Section 4.6.2.1 of The Official Plan states that the role of the CBD is as
follows:
“The Central Business District (CBD) presently acts as an areawide as well as a local commercial centre. In order for the CBD
to continue as a viable commercial focus of the community, and
for continued commercial growth of the community to occur, new
commercial opportunities should be provided.1”
Section 4.6.2.3 recognizes the diversity of the form any character within
the Central Business District:
“The Central Business District is not a single function or
homogeneous area. A number of diversified character areas exist
throughout the Central Business District. It is desirable to retain
and enhance the internal diversification within the CBD. One
individual character area is identified in Central Business District
Special (CBDS-1) designation on Schedule A-1 to this Plan.2”
Section 4.6.2.10 of the Town of Huntsville Official Plan contains a policy
specific to the former Robinson’s Independent Grocer site, which is
located at Hwy 60 and King William Street and is designated as CBDS-1:
“The area designated Central Business District Special -1
(CBDS-1), shall permit the development of varied retail service
commercial, and accessory residential uses with appropriate on
site parking and a high degree of urban design and landscaping in
one or more buildings. It is intended that the function of this area
be complimentary to the Central Business District.3”
1
Pg.43, Town of Huntsville Official Plan
3
2
15
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The Historic Downtown Huntsville is a
functionally diverse area with a range of
activities including financial, personal, and
medical services, professional offices, retailers,
restaurants, entertainment, and governmental
facilities. The Historic Downtown has a large
component of service spaces as well as a range
of independent retailers, unique shops and
services not found elsewhere in Huntsville. This
diverse array of retail and service establishments
in the Historic Downtown serves the residents of
Huntsville, the seasonal population and the
surrounding regional area.
Figure 3.4: Main Street
The Historic Downtown is healthy and, in our
view, is fulfilling its planned function as
described in the Town’s Official Plan.
The Historic Downtown has 356,800 sq.ft. of
retail and service commercial space including
food store, DSTM+HI, service, office, and other
retail and commercial space. The Historic
Downtown represents almost a quarter (24%) of
all grade-related commercial space measured in
Huntsville, a little more than a fifth (23%) of
Huntsville’s DSTM+HI space, only (7%) of
Huntsville’s food store type merchandise
(FSTM) space, and a little more than a third
(34%) of Huntsville’s service space.
Figure 3.5: Main Street FSTM space accounts for only 3% of the total 356,800 sq.ft. of occupied
grade-related commercial space in the Historic Downtown. There is no
supermarket space in the Historic Downtown. The 11,600 sq.ft. of other
food space includes two convenience stores, a bakery, a confectionary
store, and an ice cream shop.
The Historic Downtown has a strong retail component. DSTM+HI space
represents almost half (48%) of all occupied grade-related commercial
space in the Historic Downtown. The Historic Downtown is comprised of
generally well-kept, pedestrian-oriented buildings with continuous frontage.
Larger DSTM tenants in the Historic Downtown include: an 11,300 sq.ft.
IDA pharmacy, a 16,100 sq.ft. Pharmasave pharmacy, a 10,500 sq.ft. Brick
furniture and appliance store, the 13,900 sq.ft. Algonquin Outfitters store,
the 10,000 sq.ft. Flotron’s Huntsville Trading Company, as well as other
independent retailers and specialized shops, many of which are oriented to
the seasonal resident and tourist market.
16
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
As with most Historic Downtown areas, services account for a substantial
amount of the total grade-related floor space. Service uses, including
personal, financial and medical services, account for 131,500 sq.ft., or 37%
of the occupied grade-related commercial space in the Historic Downtown.
Only 14,400 sq.ft. of vacant space was vacant at the time of the inventory,
which translates into a vacancy rate of 4%. We consider this to be a
healthy rate which reflects an area with a well-defined commercial role and
few marginal commercial buildings.
Figure 3.5 below is a schematic composition of at-grade uses in Historic
Downtown Huntsville.
Figure 3.6: Composition of At‐Grade Uses in Historic Downtown Huntsville
17
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Figure 3.7: Historic Downtown Huntsville 3.4.2
The Other Downtown Huntsville node is comprised of the area along King
Node 2
William Street east of the River to Highway 60. This area is still designated
Other Downtown
as part of the CBD, but is comprised of more automobile oriented plazas
Huntsville
and freestanding buildings. This area also includes the former site of
Robinson’s Independent Grocer, which is located at the southeast corner of
King William and Highway 60, and is designated Central Business District
Special 1 (CBDS-1).
The function of Other Downtown Huntsville differs greatly from the
Historic Downtown, in terms of store type, format and offerings. The Other
Downtown Huntsville node has fewer specialty stores and includes larger
chains such as Price Chopper supermarket in Brendale Square and the
freestanding Canadian Tire store on the south side of King William, just
west of Highway 60.
The Other Downtown Huntsville node has approximately 419,300 sq.ft. of
grade-related commercial space including Food Store, DSTM+HI, service,
office, and other retail and commercial space. This node accounts for over
a quarter (27.7%) of all grade-related commercial space measured in
Huntsville, and about 21% of Huntsville’s total DSTM+HI space.
FSTM space accounts for only 5.9% of the total 419,300 sq.ft. of occupied
grade-related commercial space in the Other Downtown Huntsville node.
This includes the 19,800 sq,ft, Price Chopper at Brendale Square and 4,800
of other food space, including a convenience store, a meat market, and a
fresh fruit and vegetable market.
18
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Figure 3.8: Price Chopper DSTM+HI space represents just over a third
(37.6%) of all measured space in Other
Downtown Huntsville. The plazas located in
this area include: Brendale Square, home to
Leons (12,400 sq.ft.), and Home Hardware
(15,000 sq.ft.); a strip plaza abutting Brendale
Square which contains Dollarama (14,600
sq.ft.); the Canadian Tire store and the former
Robinson’s Independent Grocer premises. The
former YIG space is now partially tenanted by a
8,000 sq.ft. LCBO. The 62,500 sq.ft. Canadian
Tire remains at its location next to the former
YIG.
Services account for 119,800 sq.ft., or 28.6%, of total grade-related space
in the Other Downtown Huntsville node.
Other Downtown Huntsville has 76,400 sq.ft. of
mainly FSTM and retail, vacant space and a
18.2% vacancy rate. This is a fairly high vacancy
rate, but the majority of this vacant space can be
attributed to the former Robinson’s Independent
Grocer site which accounts for 25,400 sq.ft., the
6,600 sq.ft. former Sears Appliance store, and
the 7,500 sq.ft. former LCBO. If these three
vacancies were excluded, the vacancy rate would
drop to 8.8%.
Figure 3.9: Canadian Tire A total of 76,400 sq.ft. of vacant space was identified in this area.
However, the former Robinson’s Independent Grocer store, which accounts
for 25,400 sq.ft., is to be retenanted with a Staples Business Depot and
currently houses the LCBO. The 6,600 sq.ft. former Sears Appliance store
and the 7,500 sq.ft. former LCBO are also included in the 76,400sq.ft.
19
3.4.3
Node 3
Huntsville Place Mall
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The Huntsville Place Mall is located at the northeast corner of Highway
60 and King William Street. This area is designated Shopping Centre
Commercial, and benefits from its prominent location at Hwy. 60 and
King William Street.
Section 4.6.3 of the Huntsville Official Plan states:
“The area designated Shopping Centre Commercial shall be the
only area in which an enclosed retail shopping centre is
permitted in the Huntsville Urban Settlement Area.4
As stated in the Official Plan policies, Huntsville Place Mall is the Town’s
only enclosed shopping centre. It is comprised of approximately 174,500
sq.ft. of commercial space, most of which is retail, and is anchored by a
35,000 sq.ft. A&P supermarket and the 88,100 sq.ft. Zellers department
store. The balance of the space is comprised of smaller stores, most of
which are national chains.
Figure 3.10: A&P
3.4.4
Node 4
Highway 60
Figure 3.11: Zellers
The Highway 60 node stretches from west of Highway 3 to Allison Point
Rd and is Designated as Mixed Use Area or Residential.
Section 4.10.3 of the Town’s Official Plan states:
“The Highway 60 Mixed Use Area contains a variety of highway
commercial and residential uses along highway No. 60 adjacent
to the built up area of the community. These lands are
strategically located due to their proximity to major
transportation routes and existing municipal services. The
general topography of the area provides for a high potential of
direct and indirect use of Fairy Lake.5
4
5
20
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The Highway 60 node contains only 67,400 sq.ft.
of grade-related commercial space. The largest
retail tenant in the area is a 10,400 sq.ft.
Shoppers Drug Mart pharmacy, which plans to
relocate to the plaza neighbouring the Huntsville
Place Mall. The new location will be
approximately 16,000sq.ft. and intends on
opening in the beginning of January 2008.
Figure 3.12: Shoppers Drug Mart This area has a highway commercial type form,
with freestanding stores clustered along the
highway. The two strip plazas contain mostly
professional offices and small retail uses.
A vacant building of approximately 10,000 sq.ft.
is located in one of the plazas.
3.4.5
Node 5
Highway 3
The Highway 3 node encompasses a small commercial area just north of
the intersection of Muskoka Road 3 North and Highway 60. The Town
of Huntsville’s Official plan designates this area as Muskoka Road 3
North Mixed Use Area.
Section 4.10.5 of the Town’s Official Plan states:
“The Muskoka Road 3 North Mixed Use Area fronts onto
Muskoka Road No. 3 North and Earls Road and has potential
for limited commercial and medium density residential use.
Commercial development shall generally consist of small-scale,
non-land extensive commercial uses and shall be generally
compatible with residential development6”
The Highway 3 node has no retail uses. Most of the 18,500 sq.ft. of
grade-related commercial space in this area is comprised of professional
offices (16,500 sq.ft.). The remaining 2,000 sq.ft. is attributed to the
former Freeman Tire Site.
3.4.6
Node 6
Main Street West of
Downtown
Main Street West of Downtown is the area between Station Rd and
Kitchen Rd South along Main Street. This area is designated by the
Town as a Mixed Use Area.
Section 4.10.1 of the Huntsville’s Official Plan states:
“The Main Street West Mixed Area is characterized by a
variety of low density residential uses and mixed commercial
areas. Development potential is constrained as a result of the
linear nature of the area. Such linear character is caused as a
result of railroad tracts running parallel to the area on the
north and the area of higher ground to the immediate south.7”
6
7
Pg. 53, Town of Huntsville Official Plan
21
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The Main Street West part of the Downtown node has a total of 37,800
sq.ft of grade-related commercial space. Service and restaurants account
for 16,300 sq.ft. (43.1%) of the total space in this node.
16,000 sq.ft. of the Main Street West of the Downtown node is vacant,
and entirely attributed to the vacant Bayview Restaurant. The remaining
5,500 sq.ft. consists of other general merchandise stores, a convenience
store and a public office.
3.4.7
Node 7
Muskoka Commerce
Park
The Muskoka Commerce Park area has a total of 214,600 sq.ft. of graderelated commercial space. The shopping centre designated as the
Gateway Commercial Campus, accounts for the majority of this space
(181,100 sq.ft.). This shopping centre is in the form of an open-air big
box format, and, as discussed in Section 2.0, is anchored by the existing
84,900 sq.ft. Wal-Mart and a 68,800 sq.ft. YIG supermarket.
Its current form, and the expansion examined in this report, are
consistent with Section 4.6.4 of the Huntsville’s Official Plan, which
state:
“The area designated Gateway Commercial Campus shall
permit the development of a planned commercial centre
intended to accommodate large single tenant retail buildings
and building with group tenants all designed in a campus
environment with a high degree of urban design. A full range of
retail uses, personal services, shopping centre commercial and
highway commercial uses may be permitted on the lands
designated Gateway Commercial Campus. Office uses shall
only be permitted as an accessory use to an otherwise
permitted use.8”
Figure 3.13: Wal‐Mart 8
Figure 3.14: Robinson’s Independent Grocer
22
3.5
Changes in
Huntsville Since
Wal-Mart’s Entry in
2004
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
The original inventory conducted for our 2001 Market Study entitled
Market Study & Impact Evaluation: Proposed Huntsville Commercial
Centre was re-tabulated to the North American Industrial Classification
System (NAICS) in order to illustrate changes in the composition of the
Historic Downtown and the Urban Area as a whole.
Table 3.2, below, illustrates the nature of changes in the Historic Downtown
node and other commercial nodes that have occurred between 2001 and
2007:
Table 3.2: Huntsville Inventory Comparison Historic Downtown
(Node 1)
MGP 2001 MGP 2007
% Change
FSTM
Supermarket
Other Food
Total FSTM
Department Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics, Appliance, Computer and Software Stores
Building Material/ Garden Equipment/ Supplies Dealers
Total DSTM/Home Improvement
Other Retail
Liquor/Beer/Wine
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
Services and Resturants
Food Services and Drinking Places
Financial
Medical
Other Professional
Other
Entertainment
Total Services
Plus: Other Office
Total Space
Plus: Vacant Space
Other Downtown Huntsville
(Node 2)
MGP 2001 MGP 2007 % Change
Total Huntsville
(Without Gateway Commercial Campus)
MGP 2001 MGP 2007
% Change
0
11,600
11,600
0
11,600
11,600
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
53,200
3,300
56,500
19,800
4,800
24,600
-62.8%
45.5%
-56.5%
88,200
19,100
107,300
54,800
45,700
100,500
-37.9%
139.3%
-6.3%
0
14,800
30,700
43,800
16,000
0
1,800
22,900
36,600
4,600
171,200
0
9,600
33,000
44,500
20,200
9,000
2,000
9,600
42,700
0
170,600
0.0%
-35.1%
7.5%
1.6%
26.3%
100.0%
11.1%
-58.1%
16.7%
-100.0%
-0.4%
0
79,900
2,100
8,000
15,400
3,200
6,500
9,300
3,500
18,300
146,200
0
101,300
1,000
1,600
13,200
5,900
8,100
6,300
5,300
15,000
157,700
0.0%
26.8%
-52.4%
-80.0%
-14.3%
84.4%
24.6%
-32.3%
51.4%
-18.0%
7.9%
88,100
98,500
51,200
72,300
31,400
11,600
9,500
35,800
44,300
70,200
512,900
88,100
127,200
52,400
66,600
36,000
14,900
14,900
19,500
54,500
163,100
637,200
0.0%
29.1%
2.3%
-7.9%
14.6%
28.4%
56.8%
-45.5%
23.0%
132.3%
24.2%
0
7,500
0
7,500
0
6,300
0
6,300
0.0%
-16.0%
0.0%
-16.0%
14,800
5,400
0
20,200
15,700
5,000
5,600
26,300
6.1%
-7.4%
100.0%
30.2%
16,100
12,900
0
29,000
15,700
11,300
8,900
35,900
-2.5%
-12.4%
100.0%
23.8%
44,200
0
7,600
16,800
2,000
11,700
8,000
15,700
106,000
45,900
0
11,800
13,600
6,700
12,400
15,400
25,700
131,500
3.8%
0.0%
55.3%
-19.0%
235.0%
6.0%
92.5%
63.7%
24.1%
43,900
2,700
17,100
7,000
14,700
14,500
4,300
7,500
111,700
38,400
9,400
18,000
4,500
13,200
26,100
10,200
0
119,800
-12.5%
248.1%
5.3%
-35.7%
-10.2%
80.0%
137.2%
-100.0%
7.3%
134,300
2,700
29,300
26,200
25,600
37,400
23,900
23,200
302,600
110,100
9,400
36,700
22,300
31,300
59,400
60,500
27,100
356,800
-18.0%
248.1%
25.3%
-14.9%
22.3%
58.8%
153.1%
16.8%
17.9%
0
20,800
4,600
17,800
0.0%
0.0%
0
35,000
2,900
11,600
100.0%
-66.9%
0
64,300
10,800
31,700
100.0%
-50.7%
317,100
24,700
341,800
342,400
14,400
356,800
8.0%
-41.7%
4.4%
369,600
18,300
387,900
342,900
76,400
419,300
-7.2%
317.5%
8.1%
1,016,100
43,000
1,059,100
1,172,900
127,300
1,300,200
15.4%
196.0%
22.8%
We observe that, while there have been changes within various retail
categories within the Historic Downtown, the total amount of retail floor
space has not changed since Wal-Mart’s opening in 2004.
The Other Downtown Huntsville node appears to be experiencing changes
associated with the relocation of the YIG to the Gateway Commercial
Campus; however, the anticipated retenanting of part of the former YIG
space by Staples Business Depot and the planned expansion of the Price
Chopper in Brendale Square suggest that the strength of this area has not
been affected by the addition of the Gateway Commercial Campus.
23
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
3.6
Other Regional
Shopping
Destinations
A review of the major concentrations of regional servicing commercial
space in other towns and communities that may influence Huntsville was
conducted. Reference to the 2008 Canadian Directory of Shopping Centres
publication, available market studies carried out in these communities, and
our knowledge of the communities surrounding the Huntsville Study Area,
provided an overview of shopping centres, major anchors and commercial
facilities.
Bracebridge
Bracebridge competes to some extent with Huntsville as a major shopping
destination within the District of Muskoka.
Major commercial facilities in Bracebridge include:
Parry Sound

Bracebridge Shopping Centre, located at Highway 118 and
Wellington St., is a 132,300 open-air shopping centre with a variety
of national chain retailers. Its major anchors include a 36,900 sq.ft.
A&P and a 50,500 sq.ft Zellers.

Highway 11 & Taylor Rd is an approved 350,000 sq.ft. power
centre which is now under construction. It includes an existing
96,800 sq.ft. Home Depot and a 125,000 sq.ft. Wal-Mart, which is
built and recently opened.
Parry Sound is another major shopping destination that draws a measurable
amount of trade from the Central, West and North Study Areas.
Major Commercial facilities in Parry Sound include:
Barrie

Oastler Park Shopping Plaza is a shopping centre located at
Bowes St and Oastler Park Dr. This plaza is anchored by a WalMart, and has permissions for a 50,000 sq.ft. supermarket. The
Development of the Oastler Park supermarket may result in a
relocation of either the No Frills or A&P supermarket.
Development timing of the supermarket and the banner is
unknown at this time.

The New Parry Sound Mall is a 145,000 sq.ft. enclosed
community mall with a 26,000 sq.ft. A&P supermarket and a
48,000 sq.ft. Saan general merchandise store as its anchor
tenants.
Barrie also provides an alternative shopping destination for study area
residents, as it is the nearest community with a comprehensive array of
retail stores and formats including a major enclosed regional shopping
centre and major big-box retail centres at Molson Park Drive and Bayfield
Street. Barrie offers a full array of department store chains and smaller
national chain stores.
24
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
Major, regional shopping centers in Barrie include:
Orillia

The 513,000 sq.ft. Georgian Mall is located at Bayfield Street and
Livingstone Street. Major anchors include Sears, The Bay, Sport
Chek, and HomeSense.

The 460,900 sq.ft. Bayfield Mall is located at Highway 400 and
Bayfield Street in Barrie. Major anchors include a movie theatre,
Canadian Tire, Price Chopper, and Winners.

The 380,000 sq.ft. Barrie South SmartCentre is located off
Highway 400 and anchored by Wal-Mart, Sobeys, and Winners.

The 270,000 sq.ft. Kozlov Centre is located at Bayfield and
Cundles Road in Barrie. Major anchors include Zellers and A&P.

The 218,100 sq.ft. Bayfield North SmartCentre is located at
Bayfield Street and Livingstone Street. The two major anchors
include Wal-Mart and Zehrs.
While it does not offer as full an array of shopping opportunities as Barrie,
Orillia is another shopping destination that may influence the spending
patterns of residents in the region.
Major shopping facilities include:

RioCan West Ridge Shopping Center which is a 365,197 sq.ft.
power centre center anchored by a 105,600 sq.ft. Wal-Mart and a
40,400 sq.ft. Food Basics. Other major tenants include SportChek
and The Home Depot. Additional development is proposed at this
location.

The 310,000 sq.ft. Orillia Square Mall is located at Highway 11 at
Burnside Line. This mall is anchored by a 99,800 sq.ft. Zellers, a
45,000 sq.ft. No Frills and a 25,800 Staples Business Depot.
25
3.7
Planned & Proposed
Commercial
Developments in
Huntsville
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
This section provides a summary of major planned and proposed
commercial projects in Huntsville as illustrated on the following map.
Figure 3.15: Major Planned and Proposed Commercial Development
1. Mesqua Ukee Shopping Centres Ltd.
Mesqua Ukee Shopping Centres Ltd., the subject of this report, proposes
to expand the existing 85,000 sq.ft. Wal-Mart store to a total of
approximately 131,400 sq.ft. The concept plan also shows a 7,500 sq.ft.
building (Building E), which is approved but not yet built.
2. Price Chopper
Price Chopper has submitted a site plan application to expand its 19,800
sq.ft. by approximately 12,500 sq.ft. to a total of 32,300 sq.ft. This
expansion will occupy the majority of the existing vacant space in the
Brendale Plaza.
3. Home Depot
During the period in which the inventory was conducted, Home Depot
Corp. had approval to construct a 10,000 sq.ft. expansion to their existing
80,000 sq.ft. Home Depot Store to house a seasonal garden centre. This
expansion is now built and the Home Improvement category is not analyzed
in this report.
26
3.0
COMMERCIAL CONTEXT
4. Rona
During the period in which the inventory was conducted, Rona had
approval to expand their existing 12,000 sq.ft. store by approximately 8,000
sq.ft. to accommodate additional storage space. This expansion is now
built.
5. Staples Business Depot
Staples Business Depot now occupies 17,200 sq.ft. of the former
Robinson’s Independent Grocer premises on King William Street. The
remaining area between the Staples and the LCBO, which totals 8,200
sq.ft., has yet to be tenanted. The Staples opened on November 3, 2007, but
it should be noted that during the time in which the inventory was
conducted, the Staples was not fully constructed and the opening date was
not finalized.
6. Leon’s Furniture and Appliance Store
During the period which the inventory was conducted, the Leon’s store was
situated in Brendale Plaza. As of the date of this report, the store has now
relocated and expanded to a 30,000 sq.ft. store at Silverwood Dr. &
Highway 11.
7. Dollar Giant
The 9,200 sq.ft. Dollar Giant which opened November 1, 2007 was
approved, but not built at the time of the inventory. As of the date of this
report, the store is open and located within the Gateway Commercial
Campus at Highway 11 and Highway 60.
8. Shoppers Drug Mart
The Shoppers Drug Mart is currently situated at the intersection of
Highway 60 and King William St. This 10,400 sq.ft. store will be relocating
into a plaza along King William St. (next to Huntsville Place Mall). The
relocated store will be approximately 16,000 sq.ft. and will open in early
January 2008.
27
4.0
STUDY AREA AND SPENDING
4.0
STUDY AREA &
SPENDING
This section of the report provides a description of Huntsville’s consumer
context source, including:
the study area geography used for the purposes of analyzing market
support for any impacts arising from the expansion of the
Huntsville Wal-Mart store;
the existing Study Area population, including permanent and
seasonal residents;
household characteristics that affect retail spending, including
household size and income;
the location of population growth within the Study Area; and,
a forecast of spending by permanent and seasonal residents within
the Study Area.
4.1
Study Area
Delineation
A study area can be defined as the geographic area from which a
commercial establishment expects to generate between 70% and 90% of its
trade on a consistent basis. The remaining 10% to 30%, called inflow, is
generated from residents who live beyond the defined study area and who
shop at the facility on an occasional basis and from a transient population
of visitors, tourists, and business people who travel through the area. The
selection of a study area boundary is intended to reflect the aggregate
spatial boundaries of individual study areas and to provide a geographic
basis for analyzing existing and future interaction between retail stores in
Huntsville and consumers.
The delineation of the Study Area used for the purposes of assessing
demand and impact in this study was guided by customer origin surveys
conducted at existing stores and commercial areas in the Huntsville Urban
Area, including the Wal-Mart and Independent Grocer stores that anchor
the Gateway Commercial Campus. It also takes into account the location
of other communities which have similar retail offerings.
Complicating factors in delineating a study area include the sizeable
seasonal and tourist market segments, and the strengthening of retail
offerings in Bracebridge, where the ongoing development of the lands west
of Highway 11 in Bracebridge include a Wal-Mart store that opened in
October 2007.
28
4.0
The geographic extent of the Study Area is presented in the following
figure:
Figure 4.1: Study Area
The Study Area is comprised of four zones, including:
the Central Zone is comprised of the Town of Huntsville Urban
Area and surrounding lands that extend to the north and western
municipal boundary.
the East Zone includes the Township of Lake of Bays in its entirety
and most of the Township of Algonquin Highlands.
the West Zone is comprised of the western portion of the Town of
Huntsville (not included in the Central Study Area Zone), the
northeast portion of the Township of Muskoka Lakes, and a portion
of the Township of Seguin.
the North Zone is comprised of the Town of Kearney, the Town of
Perry, the Township of McMurich Monteith, the Township of
Ryerson, the Township of Armour, the Township of Strong, the
Township of Joly, the Village of Sundridge and a portion of the
Township of Magnetawan.
29
4.0
4.2
Study Area
Population
and Projections
Statistics Canada Census data provides reliable historic estimates of
permanent resident population levels. Adjusted population estimates from
past Censuses indicate that the permanent resident population in the Study
Area has increased over the period 1996 to 2006. The adjusted census
figures indicate that the permanent resident population in the Central Study
Area, which includes the Huntsville Urban Area, increased by approximately
1,500 residents between 1996 to 2006. This represents an increase of
approximately 13% over the 10-year period. The permanent resident
population of the Study Area as a whole increased by approximately 3,900
residents over the 1996-2006 period, an increase of 64%.
Table 4.1 Study Area Historic Permanent Resident Population 10 Year (1996-2006)
Central Zone
East Zone
West Zone
North Zone
Total
1996
Census
(Adjusted)
2001
Census
(Adjusted)
2006
Census
(Adjusted)
Absolute
Growth
Percent
Change
Average
Annual
Growth
11,695
5,221
5,282
10,700
32,898
12,784
4,757
6,620
10,574
34,735
13,206
6,164
7,293
10,146
36,809
1,511
943
2,011
-554
3,911
12.9%
18.1%
38.1%
-5.2%
63.9%
151
94
201
-55
391
Notes:
1. 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census population estimates for each zone refelct aggregated totals of Dissemination
Area and Enumeration Area level data from Statistics Canada's 1996, 2001, 2006 GeoSuite census
database, Catelogue No. 92F0150.
2. 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census population estimates were then adjusted for undercount for each Zone.
3. The 1996 undercounts include adjustments of: 2.77% for the Central Zone, 1.96% for East Zone, 2.04% for
West Zone and 2.56% for the North Zone.
4. The 2001 undercount adjustments are: 3.69% for the Central Zone, 3.68% for the East Zone, 3.69% for the
West Zone and 3.68% for the North Zone.
5. 2001 undercounts were used to adjust the 2006 census population.
Population within the Town of Huntsville (Central Study Area) totaled
13,206 in 2006, accounting for about 36% of the total Study Area
population. Permanent resident population in the Study Area East zone
totaled 6,164, accounting for 17%, while Study Area West zone totaled
7,293, accounting for 20% and Study Area North zone totaled 10,146,
accounting for 28% of the total Study Area population.
The total permanent resident population of the Study Area is forecast to
grow from 37,080 in 2007 to 38,840 by 2015, an increase of 1,760
permanent residents. The Central Zone permanent resident population is
forecast to increase from 13,460 in 2007 to 15,140 by 2015, an increase of
1,680 residents.
Our population forecast is presented in the following table, Table 4.2.
30
4.0
Table 4.2 Study Area Population and Forecast 2006
Estimate:
2007
2009
Permanent Resident Population:
Zone 1: Central Zone
13,210
Zone 2: East Zone
6,160
Zone 3: West Zone
7,290
Zone 4: North Zone
10,150
Total Permanent Residents
36,810
13,460
6,180
7,350
10,090
37,080
13,960
6,220
7,470
9,970
37,620
14,460
6,260
7,590
9,850
38,160
14,800
6,280
7,650
9,770
38,500
15,140
6,300
7,710
9,690
38,840
Seasonal Residents
52,020
52,390
52,770
53,150
53,530
51,830
Forecast:
2011
2013
2015
* Numbers adjusted for undercount
Study Area population and population projections were based on various
inputs, base data, and components, including:
1996, 2001 and 2006 census counts by dissemination area;
an adjustment to Census population to account for a net under-coverage
of approximately 3.69% for all the municipalities. These rates of net
undercoverage adjustment are calculated at the Census Division (CD)
level based on unadjusted population figures from Statistics Canada’s
GeoSuite 2001 Census database and post-censal estimates from
Statistics Canada’s Annual Demographic Statistics 2003;
Population projections provided by the District of Muskoka compiled
April 2004;
Draft plan approved and registered plans of subdivision (Huntsville);
and,
Seasonal population and projections were based on the District of
Muskoka Second Home Study compiled September 2005, along with
2001 Municipal Property Assessment Corporation seasonal dwellings
data.
Our review of draft plan approved and registered plans of subdivision in
the Town of Huntsville confirm that there will be substantial population
growth in the Town. Currently, twenty-two residential development
projects have been draft approved by the Town of Huntsville. These plans
contemplate an additional 1,024 residential units. The following table
describes the quantity and nature of proposed residential development in
the Town of Huntsville. It is followed by a map illustrating the location of
these developments. Using a range of 2.0 to 2.5 persons per unit, these
additional residential developments could accommodate apprxoimately
2,050 to 2,560 additional residents.
31
4.0
Table 4.3 Draft Plan Approved and Registered Plans of Subdivision (As at August, 2007) Locaton
Former Township of Stephenson
Former Township of Chaffey
Huntsville
Former Township of Brunel
Former Township of Stephenson
Total
Development Name
Estate of Frost
Mount Vernon Estates
Vernon View
Madeline Court
Dairy Lane Heights
Muskoka Meadows
1532538 Ontario Inc
Elm Street Ltd.
Richard Riley
Rocky Ridge Dev.
0159455 Ontario Ltd.
Ralna Parentcorp
Square B Properties
Cam-Win Enterprises
Glen Wood Estates
Woodland Heights
Settler's Ridge
Hunter's Bay Estates
Deerhurst Highlands
Square B Properties
VII Holdings
Residential Unit Type
Single Detached Subdivision
Condominium
Condominium
Condominium
Condominium
Rural Residential Subdivision (Single Detached)
Commercial Subdivision
Block Subdivision (Single Detached)
Single Detached Block Subdivision
Total
Number
of Units
47
43
36
10
24
33
43
3
23
29
3
4
104
38
37
134
155
59
107
38
54
1,024
Status
Draft Approved May 10, 2007
Registered April 18, 2006
Registered March 14, 2006
Registered November 16, 2006
Draft Approved March 28, 2003
Draft Approved April 27, 2003
Registered October 7, 2005
Draft Approved October 21, 2002
Draft Approved June 15, 1995
Referred to OMB Approved August 15, 1997
Draft Approved September 20, 1993
Draft Approved May, 1994 Phase 1 registered
Draft Approved July 19, 1993 (3 of 4 phases registered)
Registered August 4, 2005
Draft Approved August 17, 1992
The locations of the residential developments described in Table 4.3 are shown in the following
figure:
Figure 4.2: Location of Approved and Proposed Residential Development MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
32
4.0
4.3
Study Area
Income and Per
Capita
Spending
Study Area per capita spending for various retail and service commercial
categories is based on retail sales reported by Statistics Canada at the
Ontario level. We adjust Ontario average per capita spending (based on
Statistics Canada Retail Trade catalogue #91-002) to local Study Area
sectors by indexing Study Area average per capita household income to the
Ontario average. Income indexes are adjusted to reflect variation in
income by Study Area zones, then applied to the Ontario per capita DSTM
spending as illustrated on the following tables.
Table 4.4 Income and Income Indexes 2001
Number of
Households
Zone 2: East Zone
Zone 3: West Zone
Zone 4: North Zone
Total
4,845
1,860
2,365
4,320
13,390
Persons
Living in
Private
Households
12,040
4,555
6,420
10,145
33,160
Average
Persons
Per
Household
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.3
2.5
Average
Household
Income
Per Capita
Household
Income
$52,155
$51,911
$53,825
$41,373
$48,937
$20,988
$21,197
$19,828
$17,618
$19,761
Seasonal Residents:
Province of Ontario
Per Capita
Income
Indexed to
Province
83.8
84.6
79.1
70.3
78.9
125.0
4,219,410
11,254,730
2.7
$66,836
$25,057
100.0
Sources:
1. Average persons per household and average household income are based on dissemination area level information from the 2001 Census
published by Tetrad software (Pcensus).
2. Totals and subtotal household income figures are a weighted average based on the number of households.
Table 4.4 employs average household income and persons per household
from the 2001 Census to calculate average household income on a per
capita basis for each Study Area zone. This is then indexed to the Ontario
average.
As illustrated in the above table, Central Study Area Residents’ per capita
income average is $20,988, below the Ontario average of $25,057. As
such, the Central Study Area resident income has an index of 83.8 to the
provincial average of 100. Study Area North residents have the lowest
average per capita income level of the four study zones, with an average of
70.3. Study Area West has the highest average per capita income level of
the four study zones, with an average of 84.6 to the provincial average.
The FSTM and DSTM+HI indexes, set out on the following table, reflect
the relationship between income and resident spending on FSTM and
DSTM+HI by Study Area zone. Income indexes are multiplied by the
Ontario average per capita Food and DSTM+HI expenditures to calculate
income adjusted per capita expenditures for each Study Area zone.
Appendix E contains our definition and derivation of Ontario 2006 Food
and DSTM+HI per capita expenditures. This is the most recent available
year-end data that has been released in Statistics Canada’s Retail Trade
catalogue.
33
4.0
The survey indicates that spending on food store type merchandise (FSTM)
items does not vary greatly with increased income levels compared to
department store type merchandise and home improvement (DSTM/HI)
spending.
The table that follows sets out our adjustments for income elasticity and
the regression equations used to make these adjustments, as well as the
resultant estimates of per capita spending for each zone.
Table 4.5 Per Capita FSTM and DSTM+HI Expenditure Per Capita
Household
Income
Zone 2: East Zone
Zone 3: West Zone
Zone 4: North Zone
Total
$20,988
$21,197
$19,828
$17,618
$19,761
Seasonal Residents:
Province of Ontario
$25,057
Per Capita
Income
Indexed to
Province
Food
Index
2006
Per Capita
Food Store
Expenditure
DSTM+HI
Index
2006
Per Capita
DSTM+HI
Expenditure
83.8
84.6
79.1
70.3
78.9
98.4
98.5
97.9
97.0
97.9
$1,900
$1,905
$1,890
$1,870
$1,885
91.0
91.0
88.0
83.0
88.0
$4,595
$4,595
$4,435
$4,185
$4,435
125.0
102.5
$1,980
115.0
$5,805
100.0
100.0
$1,930
100.0
$5,045
Sources:
1. Expenditure indexes were calculated using a regression analysis of relevant components of the Statistics Canada 2005 Survey of Household
Spending for Ontario. The resulting linear equations are as follows:
Food Index = (0.1 x Income Index) + 90
DSTM+HI Index = (0.58 x Income Index) + 42
2. Ontario per capita expenditures were derived from Statistics Canada Retail Trade Catalogue #63-005 (See Appendix E).
Per capita food store spending ranges from $1,870 in the North Zone to
$98.5 in the East Zone, while DSTM+HI store spending ranges from
$4,185 to $4,595, respectively.
34
4.0
4.4
Study Area FSTM
Expenditure
Potential
Study Area per capita expenditures are multiplied by existing and forecast
population to derive market expenditure potential (in millions of dollars)
generated in each sector of the Study Area. All dollar values are expressed
in 2006 constant dollars, adjusted to include real growth in per capita
expenditures, which is forecast to increase by about 0.5% per annum.
Our forecast of Study Area resident FSTM spending is set out in Table 4.6,
below:
Table 4.6 Huntsville Food Store Expenditure Potential (in 2006 Constant Dollars) All Expenditures in 2006 Constant Dollars
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year:
2015
Per Capita Food Store Expenditure:
Food Store Expenditure Potential (millions):
13,460
$1,910
$25.7
13,960
$1,930
$26.9
14,460
$1,950
$28.2
14,800
$1,970
$29.2
15,140
$1,990
$30.1
Zone 2: East Zone
6,180
$1,915
$11.8
6,220
$1,935
$12.0
6,260
$1,955
$12.2
6,280
$1,975
$12.4
6,300
$1,995
$12.6
Zone 3: West Zone
7,350
$1,900
$14.0
7,470
$1,920
$14.3
7,590
$1,940
$14.7
7,650
$1,960
$15.0
7,710
$1,975
$15.2
Zone 4: North Zone
10,090
$1,880
$19.0
9,970
$1,900
$18.9
9,850
$1,920
$18.9
9,770
$1,935
$18.9
9,690
$1,955
$18.9
37,080
$1,900
$70.5
37,620
$1,920
$72.3
$1.8
2.5%
38,160
$1,940
$74.1
$3.6
5.1%
38,500
$1,960
$75.5
$5.0
7.1%
38,840
$1,980
$76.9
$6.4
9.1%
52,020
$1,990
$103.5
52,390
$2,010
$105.3
52,770
$2,030
$107.1
53,150
$2,050
$109.0
53,530
$2,070
$110.8
$23.8
$24.2
$24.6
$25.1
$25.5
$94.3
$96.5
$2.2
2.3%
$98.7
$4.4
4.7%
$100.5
$6.2
6.6%
$102.4
$8.1
8.6%
Subtotal Permanent Residents Zones 1-4:
Avg. Per Capita Food Store Expenditure:
Increase from 2007 (millions):
Increase from 2007 (%):
Seasonal Residents (Zones 1-4):
Seasonal Resident Population:
Estimated Portion of Spending Associated
With Seasonal Residency (83 Days of 365 Days):
Total Study Area:
Food Expenditures (millions):
Study Area resident Food Store spending, including that portion of
seasonal resident spending that is theoretically available to local stores,
expressed in 2006 constant dollars, are forecast to increase from $94.3
million in 2007 to $102.4 million by 2015, an increase of $8.1 million.
35
4.0
4.5
Study Area DSTM+HI
Expenditure
Potential
Per capita DSTM and Home Improvement (DSTM+HI) expenditures in
the Study Area are derived in the same manner as the preceding Food
Store forecast. All figures are expressed in 2006 constant dollars, adjusted
to include real growth in per capita expenditures, which in the case of
DSTM and Home Improvement spending is forecast at 1.5% per annum.
Our forecast of Study Area resident DSTM+HI spending is set out in Table
4.7, below:
Table 4.7 Huntsville DSTM + HI Expenditure Potential Forecast (in 2006 Constant Dollars) All Expenditures in 2006 Constant Dollars
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year:
2015
Per Capita DSTM +HI Expenditure:
DSTM +HI Expenditure Potential (millions):
13,460
$4,665
$62.8
13,960
$4,805
$67.1
14,460
$4,950
$71.6
14,800
$5,100
$75.5
15,140
$5,255
$79.6
Zone 2: East Zone
6,180
$4,665
$28.8
6,220
$4,805
$29.9
6,260
$4,950
$31.0
6,280
$5,100
$32.0
6,300
$5,255
$33.1
Zone 3: West Zone
7,350
$4,500
$33.1
7,470
$4,635
$34.6
7,590
$4,775
$36.2
7,650
$4,920
$37.6
7,710
$5,070
$39.1
Zone 4: North Zone
10,090
$4,250
$42.9
9,970
$4,380
$43.7
9,850
$4,510
$44.4
9,770
$4,645
$45.4
9,690
$4,790
$46.4
37,080
$4,520
$167.6
37,620
$4,660
$175.3
$7.7
4.6%
38,160
$4,800
$183.2
$15.7
9.3%
38,500
$4,950
$190.5
$22.9
13.7%
38,840
$5,100
$198.2
$30.6
18.3%
51,914
$5,835
$302.9
52,330
$6,010
$314.5
52,750
$6,195
$326.8
53,173
$6,380
$339.2
53,599
$6,575
$352.4
$69.7
$72.3
$75.2
$78.0
$81.1
$237.2
$247.6
$10.3
4.4%
$258.4
$21.1
8.9%
$268.6
$31.3
13.2%
$279.2
$42.0
17.7%
Avg. Per Capita DSTM+HI Expenditure:
DSTM+HI Expenditure Potential (millions):
Seasonal Resident Population:
Per Capita DSTM+HI Expenditure:
DSTM+HI Expenditure Potential (millions):
Estimated Portion of Spending Associated
With Seasonal Residency (83 Days of 365 Days):
Total Study Area:
DSTM+HI Expenditures (millions):
Study Area resident DSTM+HI spending, including that portion of
seasonal resident spending that is theoretically available to local stores,
expressed in 2006 constant dollars, is forecast to increase from $237.2
million in 2007 to $279.2 million by 2015, an increase of $42.0 million.
36
5.0
MARKET AND IMPACT EVALUATION
5.0
MARKET AND
IMPACT
EVALUATION
This section of the report provides our estimates of the sales performance
of existing stores and commercial areas in Huntsville and the changes that
are expected to occur as a result of the Wal-Mart expansion and other
planned commercial development. The section includes a discussion of:
the current draw of major stores and commercial areas in Huntsville
from within and beyond the Study Area;
existing spending patterns of permanent and seasonal residents within
the study area and the proportion directed to or “captured” by existing
stores and commercial areas in Huntsville;
estimates of sales of existing stores and commercial areas in Huntsville;
our assumptions regarding changes in spending patterns which are
expected to occur as a result of the Wal-Mart expansion and other
planned commercial development, both within Huntsville and in other
communities;
forecast sales of existing stores and commercial areas, taking into
account proposed space additions in Huntsville and our assumptions
regarding changes in future spending patterns; and,
evaluation of the magnitude and implications of any competitive effects
arising from the Wal-Mart expansion and other space additions.
Our analysis examines the following retail categories:
Supermarkets;
Department stores; and,
Other DSTM stores (an aggregation of Non-Department Store
DSTM categories, excluding Home Improvement).
The space additions are assumed in our analysis are as follows:
Table 5.1 Retail Space Additions Category:
Description:
Supermarket:
Wal-Mart food component
Price Chopper expansion
35,000 sq.ft.
12,500 sq.ft.
Department Store:
Wal-Mart expansion
20,000 sq.ft.
Other DSTM:
Node 2: Other Downtown Huntsville (King William)
Shoppers Drug Mart relocation (from Hwy. 60)
Staples (partial re-tenanting of former YIG)
Re-tenanting of the balance of the former YIG
Re-tenanting of former Leon’s space
16,000 sq.ft.
17,200 sq.ft.
8,200 sq.ft.
12,400 sq.ft.
Node 4: Highway 60
Re-tenanting of former Shoppers Drug Mart space
10,000 sq.ft.
Node 7: Muskoka Commerce Park
Dollar Giant (open as of fall 2007)
Tenanting of existing vacant unit
Tenanting of ‘Building E’
Node 8: Other Huntsville
Leon’s (relocation to Hwy. 11)
9,200 sq.ft.
1,400 sq.ft.
7,500 sq.ft.
30,000 sq.ft.
We have also taken into consideration in the delineation of our study area
and the assumptions that underlie our forecast, the recent opening of the
Wal-Mart store in Bracebridge.
37
5.0
5.1
Customer Origin
Customer origin licence plate surveys offer an indication of the magnitude
of the drawing power and geographic extent that customers will travel to
various retail establishments. Although these surveys do not track actual
sales and customer spending at commercial facilities, they provide a good
indication of customer origin.
Customer origin licence plate surveys were conducted at several
retail/commercial locations in Huntsville over a three-day period from
April 26-8, 2007 Surveys were carried out at the following locations:
Zellers – Huntsville Place Mall;
A&P – Huntsville Place Mall;
Wal-Mart – Muskoka Commerce Park;
Robinson’s Independent Grocer – Muskoka Commerce Park;
Home Depot – Ott Street & West Rd.; and,
Downtown Huntsville (on-street and parking lots).
Licence plate records were collected and submitted to the Ministry of
Transportation who subsequently provided the corresponding
Dissemination Area (DA) for each plate match. The following table
summarizes the customer origin licence plate results.
Table 5.2 Huntsville Customer Origin License Plate Survey Results Node 1:
Node 3:
Node 3:
Node 7:
Node 3:
Node 8:
Historic
Huntsville
Downtown
Zellers
Huntsville
Place Mall
A&P
Huntsville
Place Mall
Wal-Mart
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Robinson's YIG
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Home Depot
Other
Huntsville
Zone 1: Central Study Zone
Zone 2: East Zone
Zone 3: West Zone
Zone 3: North Zone
Total Study Area
47.3%
5.1%
10.2%
12.0%
74.7%
49.9%
5.0%
9.4%
14.2%
78.5%
46.3%
8.3%
17.9%
10.5%
83.1%
28.9%
5.3%
9.7%
24.2%
68.1%
41.2%
4.8%
11.5%
24.5%
82.1%
39.9%
6.9%
11.1%
19.4%
77.4%
Other District of Muskoka
Other District of Parry Sound
Greater Toronto Area
Other Ontario
Out of Province
Out of Canada
3.9%
0.9%
11.1%
8.7%
0.3%
0.3%
5.0%
1.5%
6.8%
7.7%
0.3%
0.3%
3.8%
0.6%
7.7%
4.5%
0.0%
0.3%
8.9%
1.1%
6.4%
15.3%
0.3%
0.0%
3.9%
1.5%
4.8%
7.3%
0.3%
0.0%
6.3%
2.1%
7.6%
6.3%
0.0%
0.3%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Location:
Customer Origin:
TOTAL
We observe that the Wal-Mart store currently draws from a much wider
geographic area than other stores surveyed. The survey results indicate
that, during the spring season, more than 30% of the stores customers
reside outside of the study area (this would be inclusive of seasonal
residents). We note that the Bracebridge Wal-Mart was not open when
these surveys were conducted. Bracebridge and Gravenhurst residents
accounted for approximately 8% of the plates surveyed at the Wal-Mart
store. We expect that this proportion will decrease with the recent opening
of the Bracebridge Wal-Mart.
38
5.0
5.2
Supermarket
Spending, Sales and
Impact
This Section documents the findings of our analysis of supermarket sales
and impact for existing and proposed supermarkets and supermarket
competitive space in Huntsville. Supermarket spending is a component of
the Food Store or “FSTM” category. FSTM spending is divided into:
Supermarkets; and,
Other Food stores.
Space Additions
Our analysis considers the implications of the following space additions:
the expansion of the Wal-Mart store which will include a net expansion
of its food component of up to 35,000 sq.ft.; and,
the expansion the Price Chopper at Brendale Square which will increase
its size from 19,800 sq.ft. to 32,300 sq.ft.
These space additions will mainly affect existing supermarkets, although
we expect that there could be a small increase in the amount of FSTM
spending directed to supermarkets and an associated decrease in spending
at Other Food stores.
Huntsville’s Capture of
Study Area Resident
Supermarket
Spending
Presently, the majority of supermarket spending by residents of the Central
Zone (97.5%) is directed to the Town’s three existing supermarkets:
Robinson’s Independent Grocer; A&P; and, Price Chopper. Residents of
the surrounding Study Area zones direct a substantial portion of
supermarket spending to these three supermarkets as illustrated in the
following figure.
Figure 5.1: Supermarket Spending Captured by Huntsville Supermarkets MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
39
5.0
A forecast of supermarket spending over the forecast period, assuming the
addition of the Wal-Mart food component and expansion of the Price
Chopper, is presented in the following table:
Table 5.3 Study Area Supermarket Spending and Capture by Huntsville Supermarkets and the Wal‐Mart Food Component
Year:
2007
Food Store Expenditure Potential ($million):
$25.7
Supermarket Share @:
89.5%
91.5%
Huntsville Capture @:
97.5%
98.0%
1)
85.0%
87.5%
2)
1)
53.5%
55.0%
2)
1)
50.0%
57.5%
2)
1)
2)
$70.5
83.8%
85.2%
$59.1
75.3%
78.4%
$44.5
$103.5
86.0%
87.5%
36.0%
45.0%
3)
$24.2
$25.3
$26.1
$27.0
$12.0
$12.2
$12.4
$12.6
$10.6
$10.8
$10.9
$11.1
$9.3
$9.4
$9.6
$9.7
$14.3
$14.7
$15.0
$15.2
$12.8
$13.1
$13.3
$13.6
$7.0
$7.2
$7.3
$7.5
$18.9
$18.9
$18.9
$18.9
$13.5
$13.5
$13.5
$13.5
$7.8
$7.8
$7.8
$7.8
$72.3
$74.1
$75.5
$76.9
$61.6
$63.2
$64.5
$65.7
$48.2
$49.7
$50.8
$51.9
$105.3
$107.1
$109.0
$110.8
$24.2
$24.6
$25.1
$25.5
$21.2
$21.6
$21.9
$22.3
$9.5
$9.7
$9.9
$10.0
$96.5
$98.7
$100.5
$102.4
$82.7
$84.8
$86.4
$88.0
$57.8
$59.4
$60.7
$62.0
$12.7
$13.0
$13.3
$13.6
$70.5
$72.4
$74.0
$75.6
$20.5
1)
$7.4
2)
$94.3
84.4%
85.7%
$79.5
65.2%
69.7%
16.4%
18.0%
$51.9
Total Sales of Huntsville
Supermarkets and Supermarket Competitive Space:
$27.6
$23.8
3)
Study Area Total (Permanent + Seasonal):
Plus Inflow @:
$26.7
$6.7
23.0%
23.0%
$25.8
$13.5
Portion Spent While at Seasonal Residence @:
$24.7
$6.6
$19.0
71.0%
71.5%
$30.1
$12.3
Zone 4: North Zone
$29.2
$8.8
$14.0
88.0%
89.0%
$28.2
$10.3
Zone 3: West Zone
$26.9
$22.4
$11.8
87.0%
88.0%
2015
$23.0
Zone 2: East Zone
All Expenditures in 2006 Constant Dollars
2009
2011
2013
1)
$10.1
$62.0
Notes:
1. 2007 capture estimated based on the survey results and the existing competitive environment.
2. Forecast capture of permanent and seasonal resident supermarket expenditures are MGP estimates assuming future space additions contemplated in this study.
3. The portion of seasonal resident expenditures available to study area facilities is based on an estimated average stay of 83 days per year, based on Frequency of Use statistics
contained in the District of Muskoka 2004 Second Home Study, September 2005.
40
5.0
The assumptions used in the forecast are as follows:
With the addition of the expanded Wal-Mart food component and the
expansion of the Price Chopper, we expect that the proportion of
spending directed to supermarkets will increase.
With the introduction of the food component of the Wal-Mart store and
the expansion of the Price Chopper supermarket, we expect that the
amount of spending directed to Huntsville supermarkets and the WalMart food component will increase somewhat over the forecast period,
particularly in the zone to the North.
We estimate that sales attributable to visitors, tourists and the travelling
public from outside the study area average 16.4% in the supermarket
category. This varies amongst specific stores, ranging from 20% for
the YIG, which is accessible from Hwy. 11, to 10% for the Price
Chopper located in Brendale Square, located on King William Street.
We expect that this average will increase with the addition of the WalMart food component, which will draw from a larger area.
Existing and Forecast
Sales
Our sales estimates for existing supermarkets and our forecast of future
sales with the entry of the Wal-Mart food component and the expansion of
the Price Chopper is presented in the following summary table:
Table 5.4 Huntsville Supermarket Sales and Impact (with Addition of the Expanded Wal‐Mart Food Component and Price Chopper Expansion)
Space:
2006
2008+
2007
2009
Forecast Year:
2011
2013
2015
32,300
Sales (millions, in 2006 dollars):
$14.7
Sales per sq.ft. (Existing):
$745
Sales per sq.ft. (expanded):
% Change from 2007 Sales:
% Change from 2007 Sales per sq.ft.:
$14.9
$15.6
$16.0
$16.4
$460
1.1%
-38.3%
$485
6.4%
-34.9%
$495
8.8%
-33.6%
$505
11.3%
-32.2%
Node 1: Other Downtown Huntsville
Price Chopper
Chaffey St & Cann St
Includes: Expansion of 12,500 sq.ft.
19,800
Node 3: Huntsville Place Mall
A&P
King William St & Hwy 60
35,000
35,000
$15.7
$13.2
$13.5
$13.7
$14.0
Sales per sq.ft.:
$450
$375
-15.9%
$385
-14.3%
$395
-12.5%
$400
-10.6%
Sales per sq.ft.:
$31.6
$460
$26.7
$390
-15.6%
$27.2
$395
-13.9%
$27.8
$405
-12.1%
$28.4
$410
-10.3%
Sales:
$62.0
Sales per sq.ft.:
$500
$54.8
$400
-11.7%
-20.0%
$56.3
$415
-9.2%
-17.0%
$57.5
$425
-7.2%
-15.0%
$58.8
$430
-5.2%
-14.0%
$15.7
$450
$16.1
$460
$16.5
$470
$16.8
$480
$70.5
$410
13.7%
-18.0%
$72.4
$425
16.8%
-15.0%
$74.0
$430
19.3%
-14.0%
$75.6
$440
21.9%
-12.0%
Robinson's YIG
Hwy 11 & Hwy 60
Total Existing Huntsville Urban Area Supermarkets
68,800
68,800
123,600
136,100
Proposed:
Wal-Mart
Hwy 11 & Hwy 60
Includes: Expansion net of food component of 35,000 sq.ft.
Total Huntsville Urban Area Supermarkets
35,000
123,600
171,100
Sales per sq.ft.:
Sales:
$62.0
Sales per sq.ft.:
$500
Our observations are as follows:
Based on the local market conditions, we expect the expanded WalMart food component will achieve sales of approximately $15.7 million
in sales in 2009, or $450 per square foot. This is similar to the sales of
the existing Price Chopper and A&P stores, which are 19,800 sq.ft. and
35,000 sq.ft. in size. Sales are forecast to increase to $16.8 million by
41
5.0

2015, or $480 per square foot.
The existing Price Chopper is a small store and is currently achieving
$14.7 million in sales, which translates into $745 per square foot. The
12,500 sq.ft. expansion will strengthen the store’s competitive position.
Accordingly, we do not expect that it will experience any significant
decline in sales as a result of the entry of the Wal-Mart food
component. Further, we expect sales will increase over the period of
2011 to 2015.
The A&P at Huntsville Place Mall is currently performing at a similar
sales level to the Price Chopper ($15.7 million). With the expansion of
the Price Chopper and the entry of the expanded Wal-Mart food
component, its sales will decrease to $13.2 million in 2009, recovering
to $14.0 million by 2015.
The existing YIG at the Gateway Commercial Campus in Muskoka
Commerce Park is estimated to be performing at $31.6 million, which
translates into $460 per square foot. With increased competition, its
sales are expected to decrease to $26.7 million ($390 per sq.ft.) in
2009, recovering to $28.4 million ($410 per sq.ft.) by 2015.
Based on our analysis, we conclude:
The Wal-Mart food component, will improve the level of selection and
service available to study area residents.
The bulk of the competitive effects arising from the Price Chopper
expansion and the entry of the expanded Wal-Mart food component
will be felt by the existing A&P at Huntsville Mall and the YIG that coanchors the Gateway Commercial Campus.
We do not expect that sales transfers from the existing A&P or YIG
would result in the closure of any of these existing stores.
The expansion of the Price Chopper, which is already performing well
for a small store, will improve its competitiveness and attractiveness;
and,
The planned expansion of the Wal-Mart store would not result in any
impacts on existing supermarkets that would compromise the planned
function of any existing commercial area, including the Downtown.
5.3
DSTM Analysis
Our DSTM analysis examines existing and forecast sales for Department
stores and Non-Department Store Categories. The latter, which we refer to
as “Other DSTM”, is comprised of the following categories:
other general merchandise stores (including home and auto supply, tire,
batteries, and accessories (HATBA) stores);
health and personal care stores (herein referred to as “Pharmacy”);
clothing and clothing accessories stores (herein referred to as “Apparel
and Accessories”);
furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliance stores (herein
referred to as “Furniture, Furnishings and Appliance”); and,
sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores, and other miscellaneous
retailers (herein referred to as “Other DSTM”).
42
5.0
Our definition of “Other DSTM” does not include building material and
garden equipment/supplies dealers, which we typically analyze as a
separate category, referred to as “Home Improvement”.
5.3.1
Department Store
Spending, Sales and
Impact
This Section documents the findings of our analysis of department store
sales and impact for the existing Wal-Mart and Zellers department stores,
taking into account the non-food component of the Wal-Mart expansion. It
also takes into consideration the recent opening of the Bracebridge WalMart at Highway 11 and Taylor Road.
The Town of Bracebridge is located outside of the Study Area used in our
analysis. However, department store sales to residents of Bracebridge are
accounted for in our estimates of spending originating from outside the
study area, referred to as “inflow”. We do not expect that the opening of
the Bracebridge Wal-Mart will have any significant effect on spending by
permanent and seasonal residents of the Study Area. We do, however,
expect that department store spending originating from Bracebridge and
Gravenhurst will decline.
Study Area Resident
Department Store
Spending
Presently, a high proportion (91.5%) of Huntsville resident spending in
department stores is captured by the existing Wal-Mart and Zellers
department stores in the Town of Huntsville. Residents of the surrounding
Study Area Zones, in particular the East and North Zones, also direct a
substantial portion of department store spending to these two department
stores in Huntsville as illustrated in the following figure.
Figure 5.2: Department Store Spending Captured by Huntsville Stores MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
43
5.0
A forecast of department store spending over the forecast period is
presented in the following table:
Table 5.5 Study Area Department Store Spending and Capture by Huntsville Department Stores Year:
2007
DSTM+HI Store Expenditure Potential ($millions):
$62.8
Department Store Share @:
24.0%
25.5%
91.5%
92.0%
1)
80.5%
80.5%
2)
1)
64.5%
62.5%
2)
1)
74.0%
77.0%
2)
1)
2)
$167.6
$39.6
Huntsville Capture:
$31.6
$302.9
3)
23.0%
23.0%
21.0%
22.5%
$14.6
20.0%
25.0%
$2.9
3)
$237.2
Department Store Share:
$54.2
Huntsville Capture:
$34.6
Department Stores:
$20.3
$15.7
$16.8
$17.7
$18.7
$29.9
$31.0
$32.0
$33.1
$7.2
$7.4
$7.7
$7.9
$5.8
$6.0
$6.2
$6.4
$34.6
$36.2
$37.6
$39.1
$8.3
$8.7
$9.0
$9.4
$5.2
$5.4
$5.6
$5.9
$43.7
$44.4
$45.4
$46.4
$10.9
$11.1
$11.3
$11.6
$8.4
$8.6
$8.7
$8.9
$175.3
$183.2
$190.5
$198.2
$43.5
$45.5
$47.3
$49.2
$35.1
$36.8
$38.3
$39.9
$314.5
$326.8
$339.2
$352.4
$72.3
$75.2
$78.0
$81.1
$16.3
$16.9
$17.6
$18.2
$4.1
$4.2
$4.4
$4.6
$247.6
$258.4
$268.6
$279.2
$59.8
$62.4
$64.9
$67.5
$39.2
$41.0
$42.7
$44.4
$9.0
$9.4
$9.8
$10.2
$48.2
$50.4
$52.4
$54.6
$69.7
Portion Spent While at Seasonal Residence @:
21.8%
18.7%
$19.2
$7.6
Department Store Share:
Plus Inflow @:
$18.3
$10.3
DSTM+HI Expenditure Potential ($millions):
$17.1
$4.9
$42.9
24.0%
25.0%
$79.6
$7.6
Zone 4: North Zone
$75.5
$5.3
$33.1
23.0%
24.0%
$71.6
$6.6
Zone 3: West Zone
$67.1
$13.8
$28.8
23.0%
24.0%
2015
$15.1
Zone 2: East Zone
2009
2011
2013
$9.7
$9.7
Notes:
2. Forecast capture of permanent and seasonal resident department store expenditures are MGP estimates assuming future space additions
contemplated in this study.
44
5.0
The assumptions used in this forecast are as follows:
Given that Wal-Mart is already present in the market and the size of the
non-food component of the expansion, we do not expect that there will
be any significant shifts in the proportion of Study Area resident
DSTM+HI spending directed to department stores.
With the expansion of the existing non-food store space in the WalMart, we expect that the amount of spending by residents of the North
Zone directed to Huntsville department stores will increase. However,
we do not expect any increase in spending from the East and West
Zones given the entry of a similar store in Bracebridge.
We estimate that sales attributable to visitors, tourists and the travelling
public from outside the study area, currently averages 22.0%. This is
largely attributable to the existing Wal-Mart store, which we estimate
draws 25% of sales from beyond the study area (excluding seasonal
residents), while the Zellers draws only 15% from beyond the study
area. We expect that the proportion of inflow will decline due to the
entry of the Bracebridge Wal-Mart as residents of Bracebridge and
Gravenhurst, located outside the study area and included as inflow in
2009, are more likely to shop at the Bracebridge store.
Sales
Our sales estimates for existing department stores and our forecast of future
sales with the expansion of the non-food component of the Wal-Mart is
presented in the following summary table.
Table 5.6 Huntsville Department Store Sales and Impact (with Expansion of Wal‐Mart of up to 20,000 sq.ft., Excl. Expansion of Food Component) Space:
2006
2007
2009
Forecast Year:
2011
2013
2015
$14.1
$12.7
$13.9
$14.5
$15.1
Sales per sq.ft.:
$160
$145
-9.3%
$160
-0.9%
$165
3.2%
$170
7.6%
2008+
Zellers
King William St & Hwy 60
88,100
88,100
Wal-Mart
Hwy 11 & Hwy 60
84,900
104,900
Includes: Expansion net of expanded food component of 20,000 sq.ft.
Total Existing Huntsville Urban Area Department Stores
173,000
193,000
$30.2
$35.4
$36.4
$37.9
$39.5
Sales per sq.ft. (Existing):
$355
Sales per sq.ft. (Expanded):
$340
17.4%
-4.9%
$345
20.8%
-2.3%
$360
25.7%
1.7%
$375
30.8%
5.8%
Sales:
$44.2
Sales per sq.ft.:
$255
$48.2
$250
8.9%
-2.0%
$50.4
$260
13.9%
2.0%
$52.4
$270
18.5%
5.9%
$54.6
$285
23.4%
11.8%
We estimate that the existing Wal-Mart store is achieving sales totaling
approximately $30.2 million, or about $355 per sq.ft., while the Zellers
store is performing at $14.1 million, or $160 per sq.ft.
The expansion of the non-food component of the Wal-Mart store, of up
to 20,000 sq.ft., would result in a modest increase in total sales. Sales
are forecast to increase to $35.4 million in 2009, increasing to $39.5
million by 2015. However, the sales performance on a per square foot
basis is expected to drop from its current level of $355 per sq.ft. to $340
in 2009, increasing to $375 by 2015. The forecast sales reflect an
45
5.0

expected decrease in inflow from the communities of Bracebridge and
Gravenhurst as a result of a newly opened Wal-Mart store in
Bracebridge.
The expansion of the Wal-Mart store is expected to have modest impact
on Zellers sales performance. Our forecast indicates that the Zellers
would experience a decline in sales of about 9.3% in 2009, with
recovery soon after by 2011. We do not foresee any risk of closure.
The addition of up to 20,000 sq.ft. of non-food space will have little
effect on the sales of the existing Zellers store and would not threaten its
viability.
The expansion will serve to ensure Huntsville’s position in the regional
market and mitigate any impacts on spending patterns arising from the
opening of the new Wal-Mart store in Bracebridge.
The presence of Wal-Mart is already reflected in local and regional
spending patterns and, as a result, we do not expect that there would be
any significant shifts in the proportion of study area resident DSTM+HI
spending directed to department stores. Therefore, the expansion would
not have any significant impacts on existing or proposed Other DSTM
stores (i.e. Non-Department Store categories).
The planned expansion of the Wal-Mart store would not result in
impacts on the existing Zellers department store that would compromise
the planned function of the Downtown.
46
5.0
5.4
Other DSTM Store
Spending, Sales and
Impact
While we do not believe that the Wal-Mart expansion would contribute to
any shifts in the proportion of Study Area resident spending directed to
department stores, we have undertaken an analysis of Other DSTM (NonDepartment Store) categories, excluding Home Improvement. These
categories include:
other general merchandise stores (including home and auto supply, tire,
batteries, and accessories (HATBA) stores);
health and personal care stores (herein referred to as “Pharmacy”);
clothing and clothing accessories stores (herein referred to as “Apparel
and Accessories”);
furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliance stores (herein
referred to as “Furniture, Furnishings and Appliance”); and,
sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores, and other miscellaneous
retailers (herein referred to as “Other DSTM”).
Other DSTM
Space Additions
In addition to the expansion of the Wal-Mart department store, our analysis
considers the implications of the following Other DSTM store space
additions:
the opening of a 17,200 sq.ft. Staples Business Depot, which will tenant
part of the former Robinson’s Independent Grocer premises;
the re-tenanting of the balance (8,200 sq.ft.) of the former Robinson’s
Independent Grocer premises;
the relocation of Shoppers Drug Mart to a 16,000 sq.ft. store located in a
plaza on the north side of King William Street, next to Huntsville Place
Mall;
the relocation of Leon’s furniture and appliance store, which was located
in Brendale Square, to a 30,000 sq.ft. store located at Silverwood Dr. &
Highway 11; and,
a 9,200 sq.ft. Dollar Giant store which opened in fall 2007 at the
Muskoka Commerce Park site; and,
other approved and built space at the Muskoka Commerce Park site,
including, the tenanting of an existing 1,400 sq.ft. unit (currently vacant),
and 7,500 sq.ft. building (Building E) which is approved, but not yet
built.
In addition to the above, we have accounted for re-tenanting of space
arising from the Leon’s and Shoppers Drug Mart relocations (12,400 sq.ft.
and 10,000 sq.ft., respectively). We do note, however, that these units
could be re-tenanted with non-retail uses.
Study Area Resident
Other DSTM Store
Spending
Just over three quarters (76%) of Other DSTM store spending by residents
of the Central Zone is captured by Other DSTM stores in the Huntsville
Urban Area.
Residents of the surrounding Study Area zones direct a significant
proportion of Other DSTM spending to stores in the Huntsville Urban Area.
The figure below illustrates the Huntsville capture rates.
47
5.0
Figure 5.3: Other DSTM Store Spending Captured by Huntsville Other DSTM Stores Presently, residents of the North Zone direct 50% of their spending at Other
DSTM stores to stores located in the Huntsville Urban Area, while residents
of the East Zone direct over 65% of their spending at Other DSTM stores to
stores in the Huntsville Urban Area.
A forecast of Other DSTM store spending over the forecast period is
presented in the following table:
48
5.0
Table 5.7 Study Area Other DSTM Store Spending and Capture by Huntsville Stores Year:
2007
Other DSTM (Excl. HI) Share @:
$62.8
60.0%
58.5%
76.0%
84.0%
1)
65.0%
64.0%
1)
$33.1
1)
50.0%
57.5%
1)
$167.6
$46.5
$33.0
$35.2
$37.1
$39.1
$29.9
$31.0
$32.0
$33.1
$19.1
$19.8
$20.5
$21.2
$13.9
$14.4
$14.9
$15.4
$34.6
$36.2
$37.6
$39.1
$20.1
$21.0
$21.8
$22.7
$7.4
$7.8
$8.1
$8.4
$43.7
$44.4
$45.4
$46.4
$23.8
$24.2
$24.7
$25.3
$13.7
$13.9
$14.2
$14.5
$175.3
$183.2
$190.5
$198.2
$102.2
$106.9
$111.2
$115.7
$67.9
$71.2
$74.3
$77.4
$314.5
$326.8
$339.2
$352.4
$72.3
$75.2
$78.0
$81.1
$43.8
$45.5
$47.2
$49.0
$10.1
$10.5
$10.9
$11.3
$489.8
$510.0
$529.8
$550.6
$146.0
$152.4
$158.4
$164.7
$78.0
$81.7
$85.1
$88.7
$22.4
$23.4
$24.4
$25.4
$100.4
$105.1
$109.5
$114.1
$99.7
Huntsville Capture:
$59.9
$302.9
23.0%
23.0%
62.0%
60.5%
20.0%
23.0%
3)
$69.7
3)
$43.2
1)
$8.6
2)
$470.5
Other DSTM (Excl. hi) Share:
$142.9
Huntsville Capture:
Other DSTM Stores:
$44.2
$11.9
2)
Other DSTM (Excl. hi) Share:
Plus Inflow @:
$41.9
$23.8
Percent Spent in Area @:
$39.2
$7.2
2)
$42.9
55.5%
54.5%
$79.6
$19.5
Zone 4: North Zone
$75.5
$12.2
2)
59.0%
58.0%
37.0%
37.0%
$71.6
$18.7
Zone 3: West Zone
$67.1
$28.6
2)
$28.8
65.0%
72.5%
2015
$37.7
Zone 2: East Zone
2009
2011
2013
$68.6
22.0%
22.3%
$19.3
$87.9
Notes:
2. Forecast capture of permanent and seasonal resident Non-Department Store DSTM (excl. HI) store expenditures are MGP estimates assuming future space
additions contemplated in this study.
49
5.0
The assumptions used in this forecast are as follows:
As discussed in the Department Store analysis, we do not expect that
the expansion of the Wal-Mart store, which has been present in the
market for some time, will result in any significant increase in the
proportion of spending directed to department stores by Study Area
residents.
The Other DSTM space additions contemplated in this analysis will
increase in the capture of local spending. Spending directed to
Huntsville by residents from surrounding study area zones are also
expected to increase, particularly in the north and east zones.
Other DSTM Sales
Our sales estimates for existing Other DSTM stores and our forecast of
future sales with the relocation and expansion of the existing Leon’s store
and the addition of a new Staples location and Dollar Giant is presented in
the following summary table.
Table 5.8 Huntsville Other DSTM Store Sales and Impact Space:
2006
Forecast Year:
2011
2013
2015
$32.4
$190
-10.3%
-10.3%
$34.0
$200
-5.9%
-5.9%
$35.5
$210
-2.0%
-2.0%
$37.0
$215
2.2%
2.2%
$29.3
Sales per sq.ft.:
$210
$40.0
$220
36.5%
5.3%
$41.9
$230
42.9%
10.2%
$43.7
$240
48.8%
14.8%
$45.5
$250
55.0%
19.5%
39,100
$10.5
Sales per sq.ft.:
$265
$9.0
$230
-13.8%
-13.8%
$9.4
$240
-9.7%
-9.7%
$9.8
$250
-5.9%
-5.9%
$10.2
$260
-2.0%
-2.0%
15,600
15,600
$6.8
Sales per sq.ft.:
$440
$3.5
$225
-48.8%
-48.8%
$3.7
$235
-46.5%
-46.5%
$3.8
$245
-44.4%
-44.4%
$4.0
$255
-42.2%
-42.2%
1,200
1,200
$0.1
Sales per sq.ft.:
$95
$0.1
$95
0.0%
0.0%
$0.1
$100
4.4%
4.4%
$0.1
$100
8.5%
8.5%
$0.1
$105
12.7%
12.7%
9,300
27,400
$1.6
Sales per sq.ft.:
$170
$5.7
$210
256.0%
20.8%
$6.0
$220
272.2%
26.3%
$6.2
$225
287.2%
31.4%
$6.5
$235
302.9%
36.7%
19,800
49,800
$3.3
Sales per sq.ft.:
$170
$9.6
$190
187.4%
14.3%
$10.0
$200
201.0%
19.7%
$10.4
$210
213.4%
24.6%
$10.9
$220
226.5%
29.8%
395,300
484,800
Sales:
$87.8
Sales per sq.ft.:
$220
$100.4
$205
14.3%
-6.8%
$105.1
$215
19.7%
-2.4%
$109.5
$225
24.7%
1.7%
$114.1
$235
29.9%
5.9%
2008+
2007
2009
170,600
170,600
$36.2
Sales per sq.ft.:
$210
139,700
Other Downtown Huntsville
Includes: 1. Shoppers Drug Mart @ 16,000 sq.ft. (relocated from Hwy. 60)
2. Partial retenanting of former YIG with Staples @ 17,200 sq.ft.
3. Retenanting of balance of YIG @ 10,000 sq.ft.
4. Re-tenanting of former Leon's at Brendale Square @ 12,400 sq.ft.
181,100
39,100
Node 1: Historic Downtown Huntsville
Historic Downtown Huntsville
Node 2: Other Downtown Huntsville
Node 4: Highway 60
Highway 60
Includes: 1. Retenanting of Shoppers Drug Mart @ 10,000 sq.ft.
Node 6: Main Street West of Downtown
Main Street West of Downtown
Muskoka Commerce Park
Includes: 1. Dollar Giant (now open) @ 9,200 sq.ft.
2. Tenanting of existing vacant unit @ 1,400 sq.ft.
3. Tenanting of 'Building E' @ 7,500 sq.ft.
Node 8: Other Huntsville
Other Huntsville
Includes: 1. Relocated Leon's Furniture & Appliance @ 30,000 sq.ft.
Total Other DSTM Stores
50
5.0
We estimate that the sales performance of Other DSTM stores in the
Downtown currently averages $210 per sq.ft. With the space additions
contemplated in this report, the sales of the Historic Downtown are
anticipated to decline to $190 per sq.ft. in 2009, recovering by 2015.
Sales of the Other Downtown area east of the river are expected to
increase, on average, to $220 per sq.ft. in 2009, growing to $250 per
sq.ft. by 2015. This is, in part, a reflection of the relatively high sales
performance of the relocated Shoppers Drug Mart. The area also
includes the re-tenanted former Leon’s store in Brendale Square and the
remaining 8,200 sq.ft. at the former Robinson’s Independent Grocer
premises, although we observe that it is possible that the space could be
occupied by a non-retail tenant.
Average sales of Other DSTM stores in the Muskoka Commerce Park
area, which are located at the Gateway Commercial Campus, are
expected to increase from its current level of $170 per sq.ft. in 2007 to
$210 per sq ft. in 2009 with the addition of the Dollar Giant, the
tenanting of an existing 1,400 sq.ft. unit and a 7,500 sq.ft. building
which is approved, but not yet built. Average sales, including existing
and new space, are forecast to increase to $235 per sq.ft. by 2015.
Our analysis of Other DSTM categories indicates that any impacts on
Other DSTM store sales would be relatively low in magnitude and
transient.
Where impacts are shown, they are a result of cumulative impacts
arising from the relocation of Leon’s and Shoppers Drug Mart stores,
and the entry of the Stapes store, Dollar Giant and our assumptions
regarding re-tenanting, in combination with the Wal-Mart expansion.
The expansion of the Wal-Mart will not compromise the viability, role,
or function of any existing commercial areas, including the Downtown.
The relocation of the Shoppers Drug Mart and opening of the Staples,
combined with the expansion of the Price Chopper, are expected to
strengthen the King William Street area.
Our analysis suggests that, given the expected growth in this market and
the opportunity to increase the capture of spending by Huntsville
residents and residents to of the north and east zones, the Other DSTM
store space additions tested in this analysis can be supported in the
market.
The planned expansion of the Wal-Mart store would not result in
impacts on existing Other DSTM stores that would compromise the
planned function of any existing commercial area, including the
Downtown.
51
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
This study of the Huntsville market has analysed the market support for
and competitive effects arising from the planned expansion of the existing
Wal-Mart store located at the Gateway Commercial Campus in Muskoka
Commerce Park. It also considered other various commercial space
additions. These other space additions include: the expansion of the Price
Chopper at Brendale Square; the relocation of Shoppers Drug Mart to King
William Street; the relocation and expansion of the Leon’s furniture store;
the addition of Dollar Giant and other built and approved space at the
Gateway Commercial Campus; and, the re-partial tenanting of the former
Robinson’s Independent Grocer premises at King William Street and
Highway 60 by Staples Business Depot and the remaining 8,200 sq.ft.,
which is yet to be tenanted.
This report responds to the requirement for a market impact study
contained in Section 4.6.4.9 of the Town of Huntsville Official Plan, which
states:
The maximum gross floor area of the first phase of the development
shall not exceed 19,510 sq.m (210,000 sq. ft). Prior to any expansion
beyond the first phase of the Gateway Commercial Campus, Council
shall require the preparation of a market impact report and other
supporting studies. The ultimate gross floor area of all buildings shall
not exceed 24,155 sq.m (260,000 sq. ft).”
The planned Wal-Mart expansion contemplates an additional 55,000 sq.ft.
of gross floor area, including:
an expanded food component of 35,000 sq.ft. (net of the existing
pantry) tested as being supermarket competitive; and,
an expanded conventional department store component of 20,000 sq.ft.
The total amount of food and food-related space, inclusive of the expanded
food component and the existing pantry (which we consider to be
conventional department store space for the purposes of analysis), would
account for approximately 40,000 sq.ft.
In this report, we have tested market support for and impacts arising from
the Wal-Mart expansion and other proposed space additions in the Town of
Huntsville and the surrounding region. Our analysis examined the
following categories:
Supermarkets;
Department Stores; and,
Other DSTM stores (comprised of non-department store categories,
excluding home improvement).
The conclusions arising from our analysis of the Huntsville market are as
follows:
52
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
1. Huntsville’s Historic Downtown (west of the river) is healthy with few vacancies. The Historic Downtown continues to be a focus for a wide range of
retail, restaurant, service and civic uses. It also continues to have a
large retail component. We observe that the total amount of retail
space in the Historic Downtown has not changed substantially since the
opening of the Wal-Mart store and the relocation of Robinson’s
Independent Grocer in 2004. Its vacancy rate as at August 2007 of 4%
is low.
2. The area of the Downtown east of the river, which traditionally accommodated auto‐oriented plazas and space‐extensive uses, has a higher level of vacancy. However, recent activity in this area shows that it has appeal as a retail location and is strengthening. The area of the Downtown east of the river is comprised of Brendale
Square and automobile-oriented plazas and freestanding stores. This
area has a relatively higher level of vacancy, particularly compared to
the historic downtown which, in contrast, has a very low amount of
vacant space. However, the amount of vacant space is, in part, a
reflection of several large vacancies, including part of the former
Robinson’s Independent Grocer store. The relocation of Shoppers
Drug Mart to a plaza along King William Street (next to Huntsville
Place Mall), along with the expansion of the Price Chopper and the
partial re-tenanting of the former Robinson’s Independent Grocer with
the new LCBO and Staples, suggest that that the area is strengthening
and continues to be an attractive location for retail and other uses.
3. The local market is expected to continue to grow. Over the forecast period (2007 to 2015) we anticipate that Food Store
spending attributable to Study Area residents will increase by 8.6%
($8.1 million), while DSTM+HI spending will increase be 17.7%
($42.0 million). Much of the growth in the permanent resident
population is expected to occur in and around the existing Huntsville
Urban Area. This growth will provide market support for future space
additions.
53
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
4. The Wal‐Mart expansion will provide an increased level of service. and selection and will re‐enforce Huntsville’s role as a major focus for shopping and services in the region. The expansion of the Wal-Mart store will accommodate an expanded
food component, which is common to most new Wal-Mart stores being
built in Ontario, including the one which recently opened in
Bracebridge. The expanded food component will provide Huntsville
consumers with greater choice and selection. It will also mitigate any
potential shifts in shopping patterns that may arise due to the entry of
the Bracebridge store, although we expect that sales directed to
Huntsville Wal-Mart originating from Bracebridge and Gravenhurst
will decline with the entry of the Bracebridge store.
5. The planned expansion of the Wal‐Mart food component of up to 35,000 sq.ft. combined with the expansion of the Price Chopper will result in increased competition in the supermarket category. The planned expansion of the Wal-Mart food component will compete
primarily with existing supermarkets. Based on our analysis, we expect
that the existing A&P and the Robinson’s Independent Grocer could
experience a decline in sales of up to 16% in 2009, dissipating to 10%
below current sales levels by 2015. We do not expect that such
declines would lead to the closure of either store.
6. The planned expansion of the Wal‐Mart non‐food component of up to 20,000 sq.ft. is not expected to have any significant effect on the Zellers store at Huntsville Place Mall or on Other DSTM stores in Huntsville. Wal-Mart is already a presence in the Huntsville market and we do not
expect that the expansion of the non-food component would result in
substantial changes in local shopping patterns. Our analysis indicates
that the expansion of the Wal-Mart store is expected to have a modest
impact on Zellers sales performance, with a decline in sales of about
9.3% in 2009 and recovery to 2007 levels soon after 2011. We do not
foresee any risk of closure. Given the recent opening of a Wal-Mart
store in Bracebridge, we expect that the expansion of the Huntsville
Wal-Mart will not result in any immediate substantial increase in its
current sales. Rather, the expansion will serve to maintain current sales
levels initially, and future growth at a rate consistent with overall
market growth.
54
6.0
CONCLUSIONS
Given the relatively modest size of the non-food component of the
Wal-Mart expansion, we do not expect that there will be any significant
shift in the proportion of DSTM spending directed to department
stores. Where impacts are shown, they are a result of cumulative
impacts arising from the relocation of Leon’s and Shoppers Drug Mart
stores, the entry of the Staples and Dollar Giant stores and our
assumptions regarding re-tenanting, in combination with the Wal-Mart
expansion. Our analysis indicates that, given the expected growth in
this market and the opportunity to increase the capture of spending
directed to Other DSTM stores in Huntsville, both the expansion of the
Wal-Mart store and the Other DSTM store space additions tested in our
analysis can be supported in the market.
7. It is our conclusion that the planned expansion of the Wal‐Mart store would not result in any impacts that would compromise the planned function of any existing commercial area, including the Downtown. The findings of our analysis indicate that the expansion of the WalMart store at Highway 11 and Highway 60 would not result in impacts
leading to closures in any of the categories examined. We conclude
that the planned expansion of the Wal-Mart to 140,000 sq.ft. will not
cause the closure of any existing supermarkets, nor compromise their
planned commercial function. The greatest effects will be felt by the
existing A&P supermarket at Huntsville Place Mall and the Robinson’s
Independent Grocer (Loblaws) store which co-anchors the Gateway
Commercial Campus.
Accordingly, we conclude that increasing the maximum gross floor
area of the Gateway Commercial Campus from 210,000 sq.ft. to
260,000 sq.ft., as contemplated 4.6.4.9 in the Town’s Official Plan, will
not compromise the planned function of any existing commercial area.
55
APPENDIX A
APPENDIX A:
Inventory of Grade-Related
Commercial Space in the Huntsville Urban Area
APPENDIX A:
Inventory of GradeRelated
Commercial Space
in the Huntsville
Urban Area
APPENDIX A
An inventory of grade-related commercial floor space was carried out in
August 2007. An update of grade related commercial floor space un the
Central Business District was conducted in October 2007.
The inventory of retail space includes the following categories: Food Store
Type Merchandise (FSTM), Department Store Type Merchandise
(DSTM), home improvement and building supply stores, services,
restaurants, entertainment, and vacant space.
The following map illustrates the location of commercial areas identified
in the Huntsville Urban Area relative to the commercial designations
defined in the Official Plan. A table identifying retail store and service
classifications used in the inventory follows.
MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD
A-1
Figure A‐1: Huntsville Urban Study Area and Commercial Context MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD
APPENDIX A
A-2
APPENDIX A
RETAIL STORE AND SERVICE CLASSIFICATION BY TYPE
NAICS
(1)
CODE
(2)
STORE TYPE
FOOD STORES
44511
44512
1
2
44711
44521
44522
44523
445291
445292
445299
445299
445299
445299
445299
445299
445299
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
CODE
(2)
STORE TYPE
DSTM/HI: CLOTHING AND CLOTHING ACCESSORIES STORES
Supermarket & Other Grocery
Convenience Stores (excl. convenience stores
that sell gasoline)
Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores
Meat Markets
Fish and Seafood Markets
Fruit and Vegetable Markets
Baked Goods Stores
Confectionery and Nut Stores
Cheese stores
Coffee / Tea Stores
Honey
Ice cream (packaged) stores
Milk and other dairy products
Spice and herb stores
Other Specialty Food Stores
DSTM/HI: FURNITURE AND HOME FURNISHINGS STORES
44211
44221
442291
442292
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
442298
NAICS
(1)
Furniture Stores
Floor Coverings Stores (except ceramic)
Window Treatment Stores
Print and Picture Frame Stores
Bedding (sheets, blankets, spreads and pillows)
China / Glassware / Kitchenware
Cutlery Stores
Fireplace Stores
Housewares stores
Lamps and Lighting Fixtures
Linen shops
Mirrors
Pottery stores
44811
44812
44812
44813
44814
44815
44815
44815
44815
44815
44815
44821
44831
44832
448191
448199
448199
448199
448199
448199
448199
448199
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
Men's Clothing Stores
Women's Clothing Stores
Maternity shops
Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores
Family Clothing Stores
Costume Accessories
Hats and Caps
Neckwear, apparel
Personal leather goods
Umbrella Stores
Other Clothing Accessories Stores
Shoe Stores
Jewellery Stores
Luggage and Leather Goods Stores
Fur Stores
Athletic clothing
Bridal shops (except custom dressmakers)
Jeans Stores
Leather (including suede) clothing stores
Lingerie
Swimwear stores
All Other Clothing Stores
DSTM/HI: SPORTING GOODS, HOBBY, BOOK AND MUSIC STORES
45111
45112
45113
45113
45113
45114
45121
45122
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
Sporting Goods Stores (excl. athletic shoe retailing)
Hobby, Toy and Game Stores
Sewing, Needlework and Piece Goods Stores
Knitting Yarn and Accessories
Upholstery Fabric
Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores
Book Stores and News Dealers
Pre-Recorded Tape, CD and Record Stores
DSTM/HI: ELECTRONICS AND APPLIANCE STORES
44311
44311
44311
44311
44312
44313
29
30
31
32
33
34
Appliance, Television and Other Electronics
Cellular Phone Stores
Sewing Machines
Vacuum Cleaner Stores
Computer and Software Stores
Camera and Photographic Supplies Stores
DSTM/HI: BUILDING MATERIAL/ GARDEN EQUIPMENT/
SUPPLIES DEALERS
44411
44412
44413
44419
44419
44419
44419
44419
44419
44421
44422
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
45
46
Home Centres
Paint and Wallpaper Stores
Hardware Stores
Kitchen Cabinets
Glass Stores
Ceramic Floor and Wall Tiles
Plumbing Supplies
Roofing Material Dealers
Fencing Dealers
Outdoor Power Equipment Stores
Nursery and Garden Centres
DSTM/HI: HEALTH AND PERSONAL CARE STORES
44611
44612
44612
44613
446191
446199
47
48
49
50
51
52
Pharmacies and Drug Stores
Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies
Perfume Stores
Optical Goods Stores
Food (Health) Supplement Stores
Other Health and Personal Care Stores
DSTM/HI: GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES (Incl. HATBA)
45211
45291
452999
452991
83
84
85
86
44131
44132
87
88
Department Stores
Warehouse Clubs and Superstores
All Other General Merchandise Stores
Home and Auto Supplies Stores
(e.g. Canadian Tire)
Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores
Tire Dealers
DSTM/HI: MISCELLANEOUS STORE RETAILERS
45311
45321
45322
45391
45392
453999
453999
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
Florists
Office Supplies and Stationery Stores
Gift, Novelty and Souvenir Stores
Pet and Pet Supplies Stores
Art Dealers
Artists' Supplies
Party Supplies Stores
OTHER RETAIL:
SECOND HAND MERCHANDISE
45331
45331
96
97
Antiques
Used Merchandise Stores
OTHER RETAIL: LIQUOR / BEER / WINE
44531
44531
44531
103
104
105
Liquor
Beer
Wine (not wine making)
OTHER RETAIL: MISCELLANEOUS
453999
453999
453999
453999
98
99
100
101
Auctioneering, with own facilities
Hot-tubs and whirlpools
Tobacco Stores and Stands
Numismatic Supplies (coin)
453999
45393
102
106
Philatelic Supplies (stamps)
Manufactured (Mobile) Home Dealers
453992
6599
107
108
Beer and Wine-Making Supplies Stores
Other Retail (misc.)
A-3
APPENDIX A
RETAIL STORE AND SERVICE CLASSIFICATION BY TYPE
NAICS
(1)
CODE
(2)
STORE TYPE
SERVICES:
FOOD SERICES AND DRINKING PLACES
72211
72211
72221
72221
72221
72221
72221
72232
72233
72241
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
Full-Service Restaurants, licensed
Full-Service Restaurants, unlicensed
Cafeteria
Coffee Shops
Doughnuts/Sandwich
Take out Restaurants
Fast Food Restaurants
Caterers
Mobile Food Service
Bars/Beer Parlours/Brassieres/Cocktail Lounges/Night Clubs
ENTERTAINMENT
51213
71312
71321
71329
71391
71392
71394
71395
71399
71399
71399
71399
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
Cinemas/Film Festivals/Theatres
Amusement Arcade
Casinos (except Casino Hotels)
Other Gambling Industries
Golf Courses and Country Clubs
Skiing Facilities
Fitness and Recreational Sports Centres
Bowling Centres
Dance Halls
Miniature Golf Courses
Pool Halls
Shooting Ranges
NAICS
(1)
CODE
(2)
STORE TYPE
OTHER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
53131
52421
5411
5231
54121
162
163
164
165
166
Real Estate
Insurance Agencies and Brokerages
Legal Services
Brokerage
Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping
and Payroll Services
OTHER SERVICES
49111
49211
513
56142
51412
81
167
168
169
170
171
172
Postal Service
Couriers
Broadcasting & Telecommunications
Telephone Call Centres
Library
Other Service
n/a
44111
44112
44121
44122
173
174
175
176
177
VACANT
New Car Dealers
Used Car Dealers
Recreational Vehicle Dealers
Motorcycle, Boat and Other Motor Vehicle Dealers
91
178
Public Administration
n/a
179
Other Office
REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE SERVICES
81111
81112
811192
811199
811199
81142
811411
811412
81149
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
Automotive Mechanical and Electrical Repair and Maintenance
Automotive Body, Paint Interior and Glass Repair
Car Washes
Tire Repairing
Emissions Testing Services
Reupholstery and Furniture Repair
Home and Garden Equipment Repair and Maintenance
Appliance Repair and Maintenance
Other Personal and Household Goods Repair and Maintenance
PERSONAL AND LAUNDRY SERVICES
81211
81219
81219
81219
81219
81219
81219
81219
81231
81232
81291
81292
81299
56151
53223
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
Hair Care and Esthetic Services
Ear Piercing Services
Hair Removal/Replacement Services
Massage Parlours
Saunas
Tattoo Parlours
Weight Reduction Centres
Tanning Salon
Coin-Operated Laundries and Dry Cleaners
Dry Cleaning and Laundry Services (except Coin-Operated)
Pet Care (except Veterinary) Services
Photo Finishing Services
Other Personal Services
Travel Agencies
Video Tape and Disc Rental
FINANCIAL SERVICES
52211
52213
47
48
Banking
Local Credit Union
MEDICAL SERVICES
62111
62121
62131
62132
621
157
158
159
160
161
Offices of Physicians
Offices of Dentists
Offices of Chiropractors
Offices of Optometrists
Other Health Care Services
A-4
APPENDIX A
Table A‐1: Inventory of Grade‐Related Retail and Commercial Space (in sq.ft. GLA) within the Huntsville Urban Area Node:
FSTM
Supermarkets
Other Food
Total FSTM
Department Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
Building material, Garden Equipment, Supplies Dealers
Total DSTM and Home Improvement
Other Retail
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
Services and Restaurants
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Total Services and Restaurants
Plus: Other Office
Total Space
Plus: Vacant Space
Historic
Downtown
Huntsville
1
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
2
Huntsville
Place Mall
3
Highway 60
4
Main Street
West
of Downtown
6
Highway 3
5
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
7
Other
Huntsville
8
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
0
11,600
11,600
19,800
4,800
24,600
35,000
600
35,600
0
9,700
9,700
0
0
0
0
1,000
1,000
68,800
4,000
72,800
0
18,000
18,000
123,600
49,700
173,300
0
9,600
33,000
44,500
20,200
9,000
2,000
9,600
42,700
0
170,600
0
101,300
1,000
1,600
13,200
5,900
8,100
6,300
5,300
15,000
157,700
88,100
0
8,000
20,500
0
0
1,200
3,600
5,800
0
127,200
0
0
10,400
0
2,600
0
1,900
0
700
1,400
17,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,200
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,200
84,900
0
0
8,000
0
0
1,300
0
0
7,500
101,700
0
15,100
0
0
0
0
1,700
0
0
146,700
163,500
173,000
127,200
52,400
74,600
36,000
14,900
16,200
19,500
54,500
170,600
738,900
6,300
0
0
6,300
5,000
15,700
5,600
26,300
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,300
3,300
11,300
15,700
8,900
35,900
45,900
0
11,800
13,600
6,700
12,400
15,400
25,700
131,500
38,400
9,400
18,000
4,500
13,200
26,100
10,200
0
119,800
4,800
0
1,300
4,200
0
1,200
0
0
11,500
8,700
0
600
0
0
6,300
5,400
1,400
22,400
0
0
0
0
8,900
7,600
0
0
16,500
3,900
0
0
0
2,500
2,400
7,500
0
16,300
19,900
0
1,000
4,900
0
1,600
0
0
27,400
8,400
0
5,000
0
0
3,400
22,000
0
38,800
130,000
9,400
37,700
27,200
31,300
61,000
60,500
27,100
384,200
4,600
17,800
2,900
11,600
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,300
0
0
6,700
0
2,300
10,800
38,400
342,400
14,400
356,800
342,900
78,200
421,100
174,300
200
174,500
49,100
18,300
67,400
16,500
2,000
18,500
21,800
16,000
37,800
208,600
6,000
214,600
225,900
0
225,900
1,381,500
135,100
1,516,600
A-5
APPENDIX A
Table A‐2: Inventory of Grade‐Related Retail and Commercial Space – Percent by Node (in sq.ft.) within the Huntsville Urban Area Node:
Historic
Downtown
Huntsville
1
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
2
Huntsville
Place Mall
3
Highway 60
4
Highway 3
5
Main Street
Muskoka
West of
Commerce Park
6
7
Other
Huntsville
8
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
FSTM
Supermarkets
Other Food
Total FSTM
0.0%
23.3%
6.7%
16.0%
9.7%
14.2%
28.3%
1.2%
20.5%
0.0%
19.5%
5.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.0%
0.6%
55.7%
8.0%
42.0%
0.0%
36.2%
10.4%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Department Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
Building material/ Garden Equipment/ Supplies Dealers
0.0%
7.5%
63.0%
59.7%
56.1%
60.4%
12.3%
49.2%
78.3%
0.0%
23.1%
0.0%
79.6%
1.9%
2.1%
36.7%
39.6%
50.0%
32.3%
9.7%
8.8%
21.3%
50.9%
0.0%
15.3%
27.5%
0.0%
0.0%
7.4%
18.5%
10.6%
0.0%
17.2%
0.0%
0.0%
19.8%
0.0%
7.2%
0.0%
11.7%
0.0%
1.3%
0.8%
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
49.1%
0.0%
0.0%
10.7%
0.0%
0.0%
8.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.4%
13.8%
0.0%
11.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.5%
0.0%
0.0%
86.0%
22.1%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Other Retail
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
55.8%
0.0%
0.0%
17.5%
44.2%
100.0%
62.9%
73.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
37.1%
9.2%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Services and Restuarnts
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Total Services
35.3%
0.0%
31.3%
50.0%
21.4%
20.3%
25.5%
94.8%
34.2%
29.5%
100.0%
47.7%
16.5%
42.2%
42.8%
16.9%
0.0%
31.2%
3.7%
0.0%
3.4%
15.4%
0.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.7%
0.0%
1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
10.3%
8.9%
5.2%
5.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
28.4%
12.5%
0.0%
0.0%
4.3%
3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.0%
3.9%
12.4%
0.0%
4.2%
15.3%
0.0%
2.7%
18.0%
0.0%
2.6%
0.0%
0.0%
7.1%
6.5%
0.0%
13.3%
0.0%
0.0%
5.6%
36.4%
0.0%
10.1%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Plus Public Administration
Plus Other Office
42.6%
46.4%
26.9%
30.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
30.6%
0.0%
0.0%
17.4%
0.0%
6.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Total Space
Vacant Space
24.8%
10.7%
23.5%
24.8%
57.9%
27.8%
12.6%
0.1%
11.5%
3.6%
13.5%
4.4%
1.2%
1.5%
1.2%
1.6%
11.8%
2.5%
15.1%
4.4%
14.2%
16.4%
0.0%
14.9%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
A-6
APPENDIX A
Table A‐3: Inventory of Grade‐Related Retail and Commercial Space – Percent by Category (in sq.ft.) within the Huntsville Urban Area History
Downtown
Huntsville
1
Node:
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
2
Huntsville
Place Mall
3
Highway 60
4
Main Street
West of Downtown
6
Highway 3
5
Muskoka Commerce
Park
7
Other Huntsville
8
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
% of Total % of Sub- % of Total % of Sub- % of Total % of Sub- % of Total % of Sub- % of Total % of Sub- % of Total % of Sub- % of Total % of Sub- % of Total % of Sub- % of Total % of SubTotal
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
Total
FSTM
Supermarkets & Grocery
Other Food
Total FSTM
Department Stores
Health and Personal Care Stores
Furniture
Home Furnishings
Electronics and Appliances
Building material/ Garden Equipment/ Supplies
Dealers
Other Retail
Miscellaneous
Total Other Retail
Services and Resturants
Financial Services
Medical Services
Other Services
Entertainment
Total Services
Plus Public Administration
Plus Other Office
Total Space
Vacant Space
0.0%
3.3%
3.3%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
4.7%
1.1%
5.8%
80.5%
19.5%
100.0%
20.1%
0.3%
20.4%
98.3%
1.7%
100.0%
0.0%
14.4%
14.4%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.6%
2.6%
0.0%
100.0%
18.4%
32.1%
1.9%
33.9%
94.5%
5.5%
235.7%
0.0%
8.0%
8.0%
0.0%
100.0%
55.4%
8.1%
3.3%
11.4%
71.3%
28.7%
100.0%
0.0%
2.7%
9.2%
12.5%
5.7%
2.5%
0.6%
2.7%
12.0%
0.0%
5.6%
19.3%
26.1%
11.8%
5.3%
1.2%
5.6%
25.0%
0.0%
24.1%
0.2%
0.4%
3.1%
1.4%
1.9%
1.5%
1.3%
0.0%
64.2%
0.6%
1.0%
8.4%
3.7%
5.1%
4.0%
3.4%
50.5%
0.0%
4.6%
11.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
2.1%
3.3%
69.3%
0.0%
6.3%
16.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.9%
2.8%
4.6%
0.0%
0.0%
15.4%
0.0%
3.9%
0.0%
2.8%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
61.2%
0.0%
15.3%
0.0%
11.2%
0.0%
4.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
39.6%
0.0%
0.0%
3.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
83.5%
0.0%
0.0%
7.9%
0.0%
0.0%
1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
9.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
11.4%
8.4%
3.5%
4.9%
2.4%
1.0%
1.1%
1.3%
3.6%
23.4%
17.2%
7.1%
10.1%
4.9%
2.0%
2.2%
2.6%
7.4%
0.0%
47.8%
0.0%
100.0%
3.6%
37.4%
9.5%
100.0%
0.0%
72.9%
0.0%
100.0%
2.1%
25.2%
8.2%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
3.2%
0.0%
100.0%
3.5%
47.4%
7.4%
100.0%
64.9%
72.4%
89.7%
100.0%
11.2%
48.7%
23.1%
100.0%
1.8%
0.0%
0.0%
1.8%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
1.2%
3.7%
1.3%
6.2%
19.0%
59.7%
21.3%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
1.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.7%
1.0%
0.6%
2.4%
31.5%
43.7%
24.8%
100.0%
12.9%
0.0%
3.3%
3.8%
1.9%
3.5%
4.3%
7.2%
36.9%
34.9%
0.0%
9.0%
10.3%
5.1%
9.4%
11.7%
19.5%
100.0%
9.1%
2.2%
4.3%
1.1%
3.1%
6.2%
2.4%
0.0%
28.4%
32.1%
7.8%
15.0%
3.8%
11.0%
21.8%
8.5%
0.0%
100.0%
2.8%
0.0%
0.7%
2.4%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
6.6%
41.7%
0.0%
11.3%
36.5%
0.0%
10.4%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
12.9%
0.0%
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
9.3%
8.0%
2.1%
33.2%
38.8%
0.0%
2.7%
0.0%
0.0%
28.1%
24.1%
6.3%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
48.1%
41.1%
0.0%
0.0%
89.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
53.9%
46.1%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
10.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6.6%
6.3%
19.8%
0.0%
43.1%
23.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
15.3%
14.7%
46.0%
0.0%
100.0%
9.3%
0.0%
0.5%
2.3%
0.0%
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
12.8%
72.6%
0.0%
3.6%
17.9%
0.0%
5.8%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
3.7%
0.0%
2.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1.5%
9.7%
0.0%
17.2%
21.6%
0.0%
12.9%
0.0%
0.0%
8.8%
56.7%
0.0%
100.0%
8.6%
0.6%
2.5%
1.8%
2.1%
4.0%
4.0%
1.8%
25.3%
33.8%
2.4%
9.8%
7.1%
8.1%
15.9%
15.7%
7.1%
100.0%
1.3%
5.0%
0.7%
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
8.7%
0.0%
0.0%
3.1%
0.0%
1.0%
0.7%
2.5%
96.0%
4.0%
100.0%
81.4%
18.6%
100.0%
99.9%
0.1%
100.0%
72.8%
27.2%
100.0%
89.2%
10.8%
100.0%
57.7%
42.3%
100.0%
97.2%
2.8%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
91.1%
8.9%
100.0%
A-7
APPENDIX B
APPENDIX B:
Customer Origin License Plate Survey Results
APPENDIX B:
CUSTOMER ORIGIN
SURVEY RESULTS
APPENDIX B
As part of the primary research for this study, Malone Given Parsons
conducted a customer origin licence plate survey at six retail/commercial
locations in Huntsville in April 2007. The following locations were
surveyed:
Location
Description
- Zellers
- A&P
Gateway Commercial Campus
- Wal Mart
- Robinson’s Independent
Grocer
Downtown Huntsville
Home Depot
70 King William Street
Hwy 11 and Hwy 60
Main Street Parking
9 Ott Street
The following map illustrates locations of the stores/areas surveyed.
B-1
APPENDIX B
Figure B‐1: Customer Origin License Plate Survey Locations MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
B-2
APPENDIX B
The surveys were carried out on the following days and times:
th
• Thursday, April 26 , 2007 - 11:30am to 1:30pm and 3:30pm to
5:30pm
th
• Friday, April 27 , 2007 - 11:30am to 1:30pm and 3:30pm to 5:30pm
th
• Saturday, April 28 , 2007 - 10:30am to 12:30pm and 1:30pm to
3:30pm
A random sample of approximately 60 licence plates were recorded at each
of the above locations during each of the specified times. A standardized
method of selecting every third plate was used in this survey. All vehicles
parked within the designated area were surveyed, including vehicles with
business markings, out-of-province plates, handicap, form or motorcycle
licenses. A special note was made of the business marking (name), out-ofprovince plates to indicate the province or state or special licence plates.
The surveyor did not included in survey:
• Vans or taxis which were stopped at entrance conducting a delivery
or pick up
• Vehicles delivering to the receiving area
• Abandoned vehicles
The surveyor completed a Licence Plate Record Sheet for each time period.
Aside from the licence plate, additional information was recorded, this
included:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Name of survey location
Date
Time Period
Name of Surveyor
Actual Start Time
Actual Finish Time
Weather Conditions
Special Promotions (major sales, events)
Additional information that the surveyor believed was relevant or
likely to affect the shopper turn-out
Licence plate surveys are an effective method of tracking customer origin
and retail trading patterns of a given facility or centre. While they are
somewhat limited in that they do not record actual sales, experience has
shown that recorded visitation (measured by vehicles) is a good general
predictor of the spatial patterns of market attraction.
In total, over 2,000 licence plates at the six retail/commercial locations
were recorded in the survey and were subsequently analyzed within the
Study Area context. The following tables summarize origin of license
plates at each location.
B-3
APPENDIX B
Table B‐1 Zellers ‐ Huntsville Place Mall (Muskoka Road & King William Street) Huntsville License Plate Survey Results ‐ April 26 ‐ 28, 2007 Description
Central Zone
North Zone
East Zone
West Zone
Count
169
48
17
32
%
49.9%
14.2%
5.0%
9.4%
266
78.5%
Other Municipalities
Town Of Bracebridge
City Of Toronto
City Of Mississauga
City Of Windsor
Township Of Minden Hills
City Of Barrie
City Of Hamilton
City Of Kawartha Lakes
City Of North Bay
Town Of Grimsby
Town Of Markham
Town Of Newmarket
Town Of Parry Sound
City Of Brampton
City Of Orillia
City Of Ottawa
City Of Pickering
Town Of East Gwillimbury
Town Of Fort Erie
Town Of Gravenhurst
Town Of Innisfil
Town Of Oakville
Town Of Petawawa
Town Of Whitby
Township Of East Zorra-Tavistock
Township Of Hastings Highlands
Township Of Nipissing
Township Of Seguin
Township Of South Stormont
Township Of Southwest Middlesex
Township Of The Archipelago
Township Of Tiny
16
9
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4.7%
2.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Sub-Total Other Ontario Municipalities
71
20.9%
Out of Province
1
0.3%
Out of Canada
1
0.3%
339
100.0%
Total Study Area
TOTAL
B-4
APPENDIX B
Table B‐2 A & P (70 King William St) Huntsville License Plate Survey Results ‐ April 26 ‐ 28, 2007 Description
Central Zone
North Zone
East Zone
West Zone
Count
145
33
26
56
%
42.8%
9.7%
7.7%
16.5%
260
76.7%
9
8
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2.7%
2.4%
1.2%
0.9%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
52
15.3%
Out of Province
0
0.0%
Out of Canada
1
0.3%
313
92.3%
Total Study Area
City Of Toronto
Town Of Bracebridge
City Of Mississauga
Town Of Georgina
Town Of Markham
City Of St. Catharines
Township Of Muskoka Lakes
Town Of Gravenhurst
City Of Ottawa
Town Of Whitby
City Of Pickering
Township Of King
Town Of Newmarket
City Of Brampton
Town Of Milton
City Of Woodstock
Town Of Kingsville
City Of Lambton Shores
Township Of Severn
Town Of Penetanguishene
City Of Barrie
Township Of Ramara
Town Of West Nipissing
Township Of Magnetawan
City Of Greater Sudbury
TOTAL
B-5
APPENDIX B
Table B‐3 Wal‐Mart ‐ (Hwy 11 & Hwy 60) Huntsville License Plate Survey Results ‐ April 26 ‐ 28, 2007 Description
Central Zone
North Zone
East Zone
West Zone
Total Study Area
Count
104
87
19
35
%
28.9%
24.2%
5.3%
9.7%
245
68.1%
20
9
8
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
5.6%
2.5%
2.2%
1.1%
1.1%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Town Of Bracebridge
Town Of Gravenhurst
City Of Toronto
City Of Mississauga
City Of Brampton
City Of Hamilton
City Of North Bay
City Of Peterborough
City Of Barrie
City Of Brant
City Of Burlington
City Of Kitchener
City Of Orillia
Township Of Severn
City Of Waterloo
Town Of Ajax
Town Of Arnprior
Town Of Bancroft
City Of Brantford
City Of Brockville
City Of Cambridge
Township Of Centre Wellington
Town Of Clarington
Township Of Dysart and Others
Township Of Essa
Township Of Galway‐Cavendish and Harvey
Town Of Georgina
City Of Guelph
City Of Haldimand
Town Of Halton Hills
Township Of Hamilton
City Of Kenora
City Of London
Description
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
114
31.7%
Out of Province
1
0.3%
Out of Canada
0
0.0%
360
100.0%
Town Of Markham
Town Of New Liskeard
Indian Reserve Nipissing 10
Township Of Oliver Paipoonge
Township Of Otonabee‐South Monaghan
City Of Ottawa
Town Of Parry Sound
Unorganized Parry Sound, Unorganized, Centre
City Of Pembroke
City Of Port Colborne
Township Of Ramara
Township Of Stone Mills
Unorganized Timiskaming, Unorganized, West Township Of Tyendinaga
City Of Vaughan
Town Of Whitchurch‐Stouffville
City Of Woodstock
TOTAL
Count
B-6
APPENDIX B
Table B‐4 Independent Grocer (Hwy 11 & Hwy 60) Huntsville License Plate Survey Results ‐ April 26 ‐ 28, 2007 Description
Central Zone
North Zone
East Zone
West Zone
Total Study Area
Count
136
81
16
38
%
47.2%
28.1%
5.6%
13.2%
271
94.1%
8
4
4
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2.8%
1.4%
1.4%
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
Town Of Bracebridge
City Of Toronto
City Of Ottawa
Town Of Georgina
City Of Mississauga
City Of Cornwall
Township Of Loyalist
City Of Oshawa
Town Of Clarington
Town Of Markham
Township Of King
City Of Brampton
Township Of Guelph/Eramosa
Township Of Mapleton
Town Of Minto
Town Of Oakville
City Of Burlington
City Of Hamilton
City Of St. Catharines
Town Of Fort Erie
City Of Haldimand
City Of Waterloo
City Of Kitchener
City Of Cambridge
City Of Woodstock
Town Of Tillsonburg
Township Of Ashfield‐Colborne‐Wawanosh
Town Of Collingwood
Town Of Wasaga Beach
City Of Barrie
Town Of Gravenhurst
Description
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
58
20.1%
Out of Province
1
0.3%
Out of Canada
0
0.0%
330
100.0%
Township Of Nipissing
Township Of Whitestone
Township Of Seguin
Town Of Northeastern Manitoulin and the Isla
Unorganized Sudbury, Unorganized, North Par
TOTAL
Count
B-7
APPENDIX B
Table B‐5 Huntsville Downtown Core ‐ Main Street Parking Huntsville License Plate Survey Results ‐ April 26 ‐ 28, 2007 Description
Central Zone
North Zone
East Zone
West Zone
Total Study Area
Count
157
40
17
34
%
47.3%
12.0%
5.1%
10.2%
248
74.7%
16
7
5
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4.8%
2.1%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
0.9%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1
1
1
1
1
1
%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
82
24.7%
Out of Province
1
0.3%
Out of Canada
1
0.3%
332
100.0%
Township Of Oro‐Medonte
Township Of Puslinch
Township Of Severn
Township Of Uxbridge
Township Of West Elgin
City Of Toronto
Town Of Bracebridge
Town Of Gravenhurst
City Of Barrie
City Of Brampton
City Of Mississauga
Town Of Whitby
City Of Kitchener
City Of Ottawa
Town Of Ajax
City Of Burlington
City Of Guelph
City Of Hamilton
City Of Kingston
City Of London
City Of North Bay
City Of Pickering
City Of Vaughan
City Of Waterloo
City Of Woodstock
Town Of Caledon
Town Of Gananoque
Town Of Markham
Town Of Milton
Town Of Newmarket
Town Of Oakville
Town Of Parry Sound
Town Of West Nipissing
Town Of Whitchurch‐Stouffville
Township Of Grey Highlands
Description
TOTAL
Count
B-8
APPENDIX B
Table B‐6 Home Depot (9 Ott Street) Huntsville License Plate Survey Results ‐ April 26 ‐ 28, 2007 Description
Central Zone
North Zone
East Zone
West Zone
Count
115
56
20
32
%
39.9%
19.4%
6.9%
11.1%
223
77.4%
Town Of Bracebridge
City Of Toronto
Town Of Gravenhurst
City Of Brampton
City Of North Bay
City Of Vaughan
City Of London
City Of Mississauga
Town Of Oakville
Township Of Whitestone
Township Of Arran‐Elderslie
Township Of Bonfield
Town Of Caledon
City Of Cambridge
Township Of Centre Wellington
City Of Elliot Lake
Township Of Killaloe, Hagarty and Richards
City Of Kingston
Town Of Markham
Township Of McDougall
City Of Norfolk
Township Of Oro‐Medonte
Town Of Parry Sound
Township Of South Algonquin
Township Of Springwater
City Of Waterloo
Township Of West Elgin
Town Of Whitby
14
8
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4.9%
2.8%
1.4%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
64
22.2%
Out of Province
0
0.0%
Out of Canada
1
0.3%
288
100.0%
Total Study Area
TOTAL
B-9
APPENDIX C
APPENDIX C:
Summary of Study Area Consumer
Telephone Survey Results
APPENDIX C
A telephone survey of households was carried out during July 2007. Within
SUMMARY OF
STUDY AREA
each of the consumer zones defined for the purpose of this study,
CONSUMER
respondents were asked about their expenditures on various retail categories
SURVEY RESULTS
over one, three or six month recall periods, depending on the category.
The survey questionnaire was designed to track household spending for a
broad range of FSTM and DSTM retail categories, as well as home
improvement store spending. A copy of the survey questionnaire is attached
and summary results of the survey follow.
____________________________________________________________________________________
C-1
TOWN OF HUNTSVILLE - WAL-MART EXPANSION
APPENDIX C
Figure C‐1: Study Area Zones ____________________________________________________________________________________
C-2
APPENDIX C
Telephone interviewing began on Wednesday, July 18th, 2007 and was completed on Monday, July
30th, 2007. A total of 951 surveys were completed. The counts for each zone are shown in the
following table.
Distribution of Survey Respondents by Zone
Study Area Zone:
Central Zone
East Zone
West Zone
North Zone
Total Respondents
Seasonal
18
88
65
33
Permanent
232
112
186
217
Total
250
200
251
250
Percent
26.3%
21.0%
26.4%
26.3%
204
747
951
100.0%
____________________________________________________________________________________
C-3
APPENDIX C
Huntsville and Area Consumer Telephone Survey – July, 2007
Survey #
VALIDATION
Market Zone
Supervisor:____________________
Date: ________________________
Contact Date: ___________________________ Tel: _____________________________
Respondent Name: ______________________
Address:
______________________
______________________
Postal Code:
[__][__][__] [__][__][__]
_________________________________________________________________________________
_________
Good afternoon/evening! My name is ________________ of Foundation Research Group, an
independent research company. We are conducting a survey on the shopping habits of residents in
your market area. I assure you that we are not selling anything.
A.
May I speak with the main shopper of the household?
Yes [__] SKIP TO QUESTION d
No
[__] GO TO QUESTION b
B.
Is there a better time when I could interview him or her?
Yes [__] GO TO QUESTION c
No
[__] Thank and Terminate
C.
When can I call back?
D.
In the last three months, have you done any shopping whatsoever?
Yes
[__] GO TO QUESTION E
No/ Don’t know/ Refused
[__] Thank and Terminate
E.
Have we reached you at your SEASONAL or PERMANENT residence?
Circle
SEASONAL
1
PERMANENT
2
RECORD TIME: _________________________
F.
INTERVIEWER: Ask the appropriate question from the list below for the Sample Area you
are calling:
Circle Is this residence located in…
Interviewer Please Watch Quota and Postal
Code
1
2
3
…the Town of Huntsville, WITHIN the Huntsville urban area?
…the Town of Huntsville, OUTSIDE the Huntsville urban area?
…the Townships of Armour, McMurrich/Monteith or Perry, the Town of Kearney or
the Village of Burk’s Falls?
C-4
4
5
6
APPENDIX C
…the Township of Muskoka Lakes, to the WEST of Lake Rosseau and Lake
Muskoka?
…the Town of Bracebridge, to the NORTH of the Bracebridge urban area?
…the Township of Lake of Bays or the Township of Sherborne, McClintock,
Livingstone, Lawrence and Nightingale?
G.
Could you provide me with your six-digit Postal Code for your permanent address? (Z9Z9Z9
– Refused)
Postal Code [__][__][__] [__][__][__] Code [__] GO TO QUESTION 1a
No/ Refused [__] GO TO QUESTION H
H.
Could you please tell me what the closest major intersection is to your home?
_______________________________________________________ [___]
In the following questions, I will ask you about your shopping in various types of stores.
1a). In just the PAST MONTH, have you, yourself, shopped at a supermarket or grocery
store?
Yes [__] GO TO QUESTION 1b
No [__] GO TO QUESTION 2a
1b).
IF THERE IS A “YES” RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER:
i. What is the name of the store and where is it located?
ii. Approximately how much did you spend during the PAST MONTH at this store?
1c) Have you shopped at any other SUPERMARKET OR GROCERY STORE in the past
MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 1b). REPEAT QUESITON 1c) AS OFTEN AS IS NECESSARY.
2a).
In the PAST MONTH, have you shopped at any of the following specialty food stores,
such as a CONVENIENCE STORE, a MEAT, FISH or SEAFOOD MARKET, a
FRUIT or VEGETABLE MARKET, or a BAKERY?
2b).
2c).
Have you shopped at any other such store in the PAST MONTH?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 2b). REPEAT QUESTION 2c) AS OFTEN AS IS NECESSARY.
C-5
APPENDIX C
3a).
In the PAST MONTH, have you shopped at a DRUG, HEALTH SUPPLEMENT or
COSMETICS store?
3b).
3c)
Have you shopped at any other DRUG, HEALTH SUPPLEMENT OR COSMETICS STORE
in the PAST MONTH?
4a).
In the PAST MONTH, have you shopped at a WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB,
such as Costco or Sam’s Club?
4b).
ii. Approximately how much did you spend on GROCERY items in the PAST
MONTH at this store?
iii. Approximately how much did you spend on NON-GROCERY items in the PAST
MONTH at this store?
4c)
Have you shopped at any other WAREHOUSE MEMBERSHIP CLUB in the PAST
MONTH?
5a). In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a DEPARTMENT STORE, such
as the Bay, Sears, Zellers or Wal-Mart, but excluding Sears Catalogue stores?
5b).
ii. Approximately how much did you spend during the PAST THREE MONTHS at
this store?
5c)
Have you shopped at any other DEPARTMENT STORE in the PAST THREE MONTHS?
C-6
6a)
APPENDIX C
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a GENERAL MERCHANDISE
STORE, such as Giant Tiger, Sears Catalogue Store, a general store or a dollar store?
6b).
this store?
6c) Have you shopped at any other GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE in the PAST THREE
MONTHS?
7a).
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at CANADIAN TIRE?
7b).
i. Where is this Canadian Tire store located?
this store?
7c)
Have you shopped at any other CANADIAN TIRE in the past THREE MONTHS?
8a).
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a TIRE, BATTERY or
AUTOMOTIVE SPECIALTY SHOP, such as a muffler, auto glass or oil and lube shop?
8b).
this store?
8c)
Have you shopped at any other TIRE, BATTERY OR AUTOMOTIVE SPCIALTY SHOP in
the past THREE MONTHS?
9a).
In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at a CLOTHING or CLOTHING
ACCESSORIES stores, such as a MEN’S, WOMEN’S or CHILDREN’S CLOTHING
STORE, a SHOE STORE, or a JEWELLERY STORE?
C-7
APPENDIX C
9b).
this store?
9c)
Have you shopped at any other CLOTHING & CLOTHING ACCESSORIES STORE in the
PAST THREE MONTHS?
10a). In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following SPECIALTY
stores?
i.
A sporting goods store (excl. athletic clothing)
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO ii.
ii.
A hobby or toy shop or arts and crafts store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO iii.
iii.
A florist
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO v.
iv.
A pre-recorded tape, CD and record shop, or
a musical instrument and supplies store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO vi.
v.
A camera and photographic supplies store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO vii.
vi.
A book and news dealer
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO viii.
vii.
An office supply or stationery store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO ix.
viii.
A gift, novelty, souvenir, party supplies or
greeting cards store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO x.
ix.
A pet or pet supplies store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 10b
GO TO QUESTION 11a
10b). FOR EACH “YES” RESPONSE, ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS TOGETHER:
this store?
10c) Have you shopped at any other SPECIALTY STORE in the PAST THREE MONTHS?
IF YES, REPEAT QUESTION 10b). REPEAT QUESTION 10c) AS OFTEN AS IS
NECESSARY.
Interviewer Please Note: Repeat this sequence for all 10a) questions, including i. through ix.
C-8
APPENDIX C
11a). In the PAST THREE MONTHS, have you shopped at any of the following BUILDING
MATERIAL/GARDEN EQUIPMENT DEARLERS?
i.
A home improvement centre (e.g. Home Depot
Yes 1
GO TO QUESTION 11b
No
2
GO TO ii.
and Rona)
ii.
A paint, glass or wallpaper store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 11b
GO TO iii.
iii.
A hardware store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 11b
GO TO 12a.
i. What is the name of the centre/store and where is it located?
this centre/store?
11c) Have you shopped at any other such centre/store in the past THREE MONTHS?
NECESSARY.
Interviewer Please Note: Repeat this sequence for all 11a) questions, including i. through iv.
Interviewer Please Note: The following question is for shopping habits in the past SIX MONTHS.
12a). In the PAST SIX MONTHS, have you shopped at HOME FURNITURE or
FURNISHINGS stores?
i.
A furniture or appliance store
Yes 1
GO TO QUESTION 12b
No
2
GO TO ii.
ii.
A TV or stereo store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO iii.
iii.
A china, kitchenware, or bath and linen store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO iv.
iv.
A lamp, carpet or other store selling home
decor
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO v.
v.
A computer store
Yes
No
1
2
GO TO QUESTION 12b
GO TO QUESTION 13a
ii. Approximately how much did you spend during the PAST SIX MONTHS at this
store?
12c) Have you shopped at any other HOME FURNSHINGS STORE in the PAST SIX MONTHS?
C-9
APPENDIX C
NECESSARY.
Interviewer Please Note: Repeat this sequence for all 12a) questions, including i. through v.
Finally, these last few questions will help us classify your answers among different groups of
consumers. This information is used only for making statistical tables.
13.
Can you tell me how many people live in your household? [______] RECORD NUMBER
14.
Which of the following represents your age? READ LIST.
Less than 20 years
[___] [1]
20 to 34 years
[___] [2]
35 to 44 years
[___] [3]
45 to 54 years
[___] [4]
55 to 64 years
[___] [5]
65 years or older
[___] [6]
(DO NOT READ) Refused [___] [7]
15.
Can you tell me in which of the following income ranges would your total household income
belong? READ LIST.
Less than $20,000
[___] [1]
$20,000 to $29,999
[___] [2]
$30,000 to $39,999
[___] [3]
$40,000 to $49,999
[___] [4]
$50,000 to $59,999
[___] [5]
$60,000 to $69,999
[___] [6]
$70,000 to $79,999
[___] [7]
$80,000 to $89,999
[___] [8]
Over $90,000
[___] [9]
(DO NOT READ) Refused [___] [10]
C-10
16.
APPENDIX C
Thank you for your time and have a good day.
RECORD SEX OF RESPONDENT
Male
Female
[__] [1]
[__] [2]
_________________________________
Interviewer Signature
C-11
APPENDIX C
Expenditure Table C-1
Study Area Telephone Consumer Survey July 2007
Study Area In-Home Consumer Survey Summary Tables
Q.F) Do you live in...?
Study Area Zone:
Central Zone
East Zone
West Zone
North Zone
Total Respondents
Seasonal
18
88
65
33
Permanent
232
112
186
217
Total
250
200
251
250
Percent
26.3%
21.0%
26.4%
26.3%
204
747
951
100.0%
Q.13)...how many people live in your household?
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Refused
TOTAL
Average Household Size:
Frequency
169
395
146
159
56
15
5
3
1
1
1
Percent
17.8%
41.5%
15.4%
16.7%
5.9%
1.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
951
2.61
100.0%
Q.14) Which of the following represents your age?
AGE GROUP
less than 20
20 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 years or older
Refused
TOTAL
Frequency
8
125
156
225
198
236
3
Percent
0.8%
13.1%
16.4%
23.7%
20.8%
24.8%
0.3%
951
100.0%
C-12
APPENDIX C
Q.15) …which of the following income ranges would your total household income belong?
INCOME
Less than $20,000
$20,000 to $29,999
$30,000 to $39,999
$40,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $69,999
$70,000 to $79,999
$80,000 to $89,999
Over $90,000
Refused
Frequency
68
93
108
105
82
63
56
40
169
167
TOTAL
Percent
7.2%
9.8%
11.4%
11.0%
8.6%
6.6%
5.9%
4.2%
17.8%
17.6%
100.0%
951
Q.16) [Record sex of respondent:]
GENDER
Male
Female
TOTAL
Frequency
201
750
Percent
21.1%
78.9%
951
100.0%
Frequency
204
747
Percent
21.5%
78.5%
951
100.0%
Q.15) …reached you at your seasonal or permanent residence?
TYPE OF RESIDENCE
Seasonal
Permanent
TOTAL
C-13
APPENDIX D
APPENDIX D:
Proposed Retail Space Additions
in the Huntsville Urban Area
APPENDIX D
Figure D‐1: Huntsville Urban Area Proposed Retail Space Additions MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
D-1
APPENDIX D
Table D‐1: Town of Huntsville Approved and Proposed Commercial Development Planning
Application
ZBA
Status
Pending
Net Space
Additions (sq.ft.)
46,500
Site Plan
Pending
12,500
Proposed expansion of existing 80,000 sq. ft. Home Depot
store by another 10,000 sq. ft. New store to house a
seasonal garden centre.
Built
Approved
10,000
Rona
Intended expansion of existing 12,000 sq. ft. store by
approximately 8,000 sq. ft. to accommodate additional
storage space
Built
Approved
8,000
Town of Huntsville
Staples Business Depot
New store will occupy 17,200 sq. ft. of the former
Robinson’s YIG.
None
Approved
17,200
Town of Huntsville
Leon's
Changing locations from Brendale Plaza to a new 30,000
sq. ft. location on Silverwood Dr. & Highway 11 by
September 2007.
Built
Approved
30,000
Locaton
Town of Huntsville
Development Name
Wal-Mart
Development Component
Proposed expansion of existing 84,900 sq. ft. Wal-Mart by
another 46,500 sq. ft.
Town of Huntsville
Price Chopper
Intended expansion of existing 19,800 sq. ft. store by
approximately 12,500 sq. ft.
Town of Huntsville
Home Depot
Town of Huntsville
Town of Huntsville
Dollar Giant
New 9,200 sq.ft. store located in Gateway Commercial
Town of Huntsville
Shoppers Drug Mart
Changing locations from the intersection of Highway 60 and
King William to the former Tasty Cream
Total
Built
Approved
9,200
Site Plan
Approved
16,000
149,400
D-2
APPENDIX D
Figure D‐2: Town of Huntsville Registered and Draft Plan Approved Plans of Subdivision MALONE GIVEN PARSONS LTD.
D-3
APPENDIX D
Table D‐2: Town of Huntsville Registered and Draft Plan Approved Plans of Subdivision Development Name
Estate of Frost
Mount Vernon Estates
Vernon View
Madeline Court
Dairy Lane Heights
Muskoka Meadows
1532538 Ontario Inc
Elm Street Ltd.
Richard Riley
Rocky Ridge Dev.
0159455 Ontario Ltd.
Ralna Parentcorp
Square B Properties
Cam-Win Enterprises
Glen Wood Estates
Woodland Heights
Settler's Ridge
Hunter's Bay Estates
Deerhurst Highlands
Square B Properties
VII Holdings
Residential Unit Type
Condominium
Condominium
Condominium
Condominium
Commercial Subdivision
Block Subdivision (Single Detached)
Total
Number
of Units
47
43
36
10
24
33
43
3
23
29
3
4
104
38
37
134
155
59
107
38
54
1,024
Status
Registered April 18, 2006
Registered March 14, 2006
Draft Approved March 28, 2003
Draft Approved April 27, 2003
Registered October 7, 2005
Draft Approved October 21, 2002
Referred to OMB Approved August 15, 1997
Draft Approved May, 1994 Phase 1 registered
Draft Approved July 19, 1993 (3 of 4 phases registered)
Registered August 4, 2005
Draft Approved August 17, 1992
D-4
APPENDIX E
APPENDIX E:
Per Capita Retail Expenditure
Definition and Derivation
APPENDIX E
Table E‐1: Retail Sales for Ontario and 2006 Per Capita Estimate TRADE GROUP
FOOD
Supermarkets and Other Grocery (1)
Convenience and Specialty Food Stores
TOTAL FSTM
2006 Ont.
Sales
(m)
Percent
used for
per caps
Sales
Portion
Employed
2006 Sales
per cap
$21,618.5
$2,876.9
--
$21,618.5
$2,876.9
$1,704.0
$226.8
$3,342.4
$2,176.8
$453.7
$4,038.4
$10,011.3
$3,342.4
$2,176.8
$453.7
$4,038.4
$10,011.3
$6,631.5
$1,686.1
$8,317.6
Sub-total
Percent of
Total FSTM or
DSTM/Hm Impt
$1,704.0
$226.8
$1,930.8
88.3%
11.7%
100.0%
$263.5
$171.6
$35.8
$318.3
$789.1
$789.1
15.6%
$6,631.5
$1,686.1
$8,317.6
$522.7
$132.9
$655.6
$655.6
13.0%
$10,556.4
$10,556.4
$832.1
$832.1
16.5%
$6,926.8
$2,283.4
$9,210.2
$6,926.8
$2,283.4
$9,210.2
$546.0
$180.0
$726.0
$726.0
14.4%
$18,260.0
$714.9
$652.1
$19,627.0
$18,260.0
$714.9
$652.1
$1,367.0
$1,439.3
$56.3
$51.4
$1,547.0
$1,439.3
$56.3
$51.4
$1,547.0
28.5%
1.1%
1.0%
30.7%
$3,599.5
$2,695.4
$6,294.9
$283.7
$212.5
$496.2
$496.2
9.8%
$5,045.9
100.0%
DSTM/Home Improvement
Furniture stores
Home furnishings stores
Computer and software stores
Home electronics and appliance stores
Sub-Total:
Home centres and hardware stores
Specialized building materials and garden stores
Sub-Total
Pharmacies and personal care stores
Clothing stores
Shoe, clothing accessories and jewellery stores
Sub-Total:
Total General Merchandise (2)
Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores (3)
Tire Dealers (3)
Sub-Total
Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores
Miscellaneous store retailers
Sub-Total:
$3,599.5
$3,850.6
$7,450.1
70.0%
$65,172.6
$45,757.4
$5,045.9
Source: Retail Trade Catalogue #63-005-XIB
Ontario pop'n in thousands (estimate based on Census 2001 population including undercoverage) July 1, 2006
Population source: Statistics Canada "Quarterly Demographic Statistics, January-March 2007" catalogue 91-002-XWE
12,687.0 (PP)
(1) Supermarkets and Other Grocery excludes Supercentres and Superstores
(2) General Merchandise includes Supercentres and Superstores, and home and auto supply stores (but does not include auto parts and accessory stores)
(3) Statistics Canada special cross-tabulation data
E-1
TOWN OF HUNSTVILLE: WAL-MART EXPANSION
APPENDIX F
APPENDIX F:
Impact Analysis Detailed Tables
APPENDIX F
Table F-1
Huntsville Supermarket and Grocery Impact Analysis: 2007 Base Year
Huntsville Supermarket and Grocery Impact Analysis: 2007 Base Year
2007
ESTIMATE
Node 2:
Other
Downtown
Core:
Node 3:
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Node 7:
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Node 7:
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Other:
Total:
Price
Chopper
A&P
Robinson's
Independent
Grocer
Wal-Mart
Food
Component
Central Zone:
% Distribution
$ Distribution ($millions)
26.7%
$6.1
25.7%
$5.9
45.1%
$10.4
---
97.5%
$22.4
2.5%
$0.6
100.0%
$23.0
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
19.9%
$2.0
24.2%
$2.5
40.9%
$4.2
---
85.0%
$8.8
15.0%
$1.5
100.0%
$10.3
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
16.3%
$2.0
13.1%
$1.6
24.1%
$3.0
---
53.5%
$6.6
46.5%
$5.7
100.0%
$12.3
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
15.2%
$2.0
11.0%
$1.5
23.9%
$3.2
---
50.0%
50.0%
$6.7
50.0%
$6.7
100.0%
$13.5
Subtotal: Permanent Residents
% Distribution
20.7%
$12.2
19.4%
$11.5
35.2%
$20.8
---
75.3%
$44.5
24.7%
$14.6
100.0%
$59.1
% Distribution
4.9%
$1.0
9.1%
$1.9
22.0%
$4.5
---
36.0%
$7.4
64.0%
$13.1
100.0%
$20.5
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
16.6%
$13.2
16.8%
$13.3
31.8%
$25.3
---
65.2%
$51.9
34.8%
$27.7
100.0%
$79.5
Percent Inflow:
Inflow Sales ($millions):
Total Sales Volume ($millions):
Space in Square Feet:
Average Sales Performance ($ per sq.ft.):
10.0%
$1.5
$14.7
19,800
$745
15.0%
$2.4
$15.7
35,000
$450
20.0%
$6.3
$31.6
68,800
$460
------
16.4%
$10.1
$62.0
123,600
$500
Table F-2
Huntsville Supermarket and Grocery Impact Analysis: 2009
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Other:
Total:
18.5%
$4.6
98.0%
$24.2
2.0%
$0.5
100.0%
$24.7
33.4%
$3.5
17.0%
$1.8
87.5%
$9.3
12.5%
$1.3
100.0%
$10.6
11.1%
$1.4
20.2%
$2.6
9.0%
$1.1
55.0%
$7.0
45.0%
$5.7
100.0%
$12.8
13.5%
$1.8
9.1%
$1.2
19.8%
$2.7
15.0%
$2.0
57.5%
$7.8
42.5%
$5.8
100.0%
$13.5
% Distribution
19.5%
$12.0
15.4%
$9.5
27.9%
$17.2
15.5%
$9.5
78.4%
$48.2
21.6%
$13.3
100.0%
$61.6
% Distribution
4.8%
$1.0
8.1%
$1.7
19.6%
$4.1
12.5%
$2.6
45.0%
$9.5
55.0%
$11.7
100.0%
$21.2
15.7%
$13.0
13.6%
$11.2
25.8%
$21.3
14.7%
$12.2
69.8%
$57.8
30.2%
$25.0
100.0%
$82.7
12.5%
$1.9
$14.9
32,300
$460
1.1%
-38.3%
15.0%
$2.0
$13.2
35,000
$375
-15.9%
-16.7%
20.0%
$5.3
$26.7
68,800
$390
-15.6%
-15.2%
22.5%
$3.5
$15.7
35,000
$450
18.0%
$12.7
$70.5
171,100
$410
13.7%
-17.4%
Node 2:
Other
Downtown
Core:
Node 3:
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Node 7:
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Node 7:
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Price
Chopper
A&P
Robinson's
Independent
Grocer
Wal-Mart
Food
Component
Central Zone:
% Distribution
26.1%
$6.4
19.3%
$4.8
34.0%
$8.4
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
17.3%
$1.8
19.7%
$2.1
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.7%
$1.9
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
2009
FORECAST
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
Percent Inflow:
Change in Sales from 2007:
Change in Sales per sq.ft. from 2007:
F-1
APPENDIX F
Table F-3
2011
FORECAST
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Other:
Total:
18.5%
$4.8
98.0%
$25.3
2.0%
$0.5
100.0%
$25.8
32.4%
$3.5
17.0%
$1.8
87.5%
$9.4
12.5%
$1.3
100.0%
$10.8
11.3%
$1.5
20.7%
$2.7
9.0%
$1.2
55.0%
$7.2
45.0%
$5.9
100.0%
$13.1
12.9%
$1.7
9.3%
$1.3
20.3%
$2.7
15.0%
$2.0
57.5%
$7.8
42.5%
$5.7
100.0%
$13.5
% Distribution
20.0%
$12.6
15.3%
$9.7
27.8%
$17.5
15.5%
$9.8
78.6%
$49.7
21.4%
$13.5
100.0%
$63.2
% Distribution
4.8%
$1.0
8.1%
$1.7
19.6%
$4.2
12.5%
$2.7
45.0%
$9.7
55.0%
$11.9
100.0%
$21.6
16.2%
$13.7
13.5%
$11.4
25.7%
$21.8
14.8%
$12.5
70.1%
$59.4
29.9%
$25.4
100.0%
$84.8
12.5%
$2.0
$15.6
32,300
$485
6.4%
-34.9%
15.0%
$2.0
$13.5
35,000
$385
-14.3%
-14.4%
20.0%
$5.4
$27.2
68,800
$395
-13.9%
-14.1%
22.5%
$3.6
$16.1
35,000
$460
18.0%
$13.0
$72.4
171,100
$425
16.8%
-14.4%
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Other:
Total:
Node 2:
Other
Downtown
Core:
Node 3:
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Node 7:
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Node 7:
Price
Chopper
A&P
Robinson's
Independent
Grocer
Wal-Mart
Food
Component
Central Zone:
% Distribution
27.2%
$7.0
18.9%
$4.9
33.3%
$8.6
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
19.0%
$2.0
19.1%
$2.1
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.0%
$1.8
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
Percent Inflow:
Change in Sales per sq.ft.from 2007:
Table F-4
2013
FORECAST
Node 2:
Other
Downtown
Core:
Node 3:
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Node 7:
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Node 7:
Price
Chopper
A&P
Robinson's
Independent
Grocer
Wal-Mart
Food
Component
Central Zone:
% Distribution
27.2%
$7.3
18.9%
$5.1
33.3%
$8.9
18.5%
$4.9
98.0%
$26.1
2.0%
$0.5
100.0%
$26.7
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
19.0%
$2.1
19.1%
$2.1
32.4%
$3.5
17.0%
$1.9
87.5%
$9.6
12.5%
$1.4
100.0%
$10.9
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.0%
$1.9
11.3%
$1.5
20.7%
$2.8
9.0%
$1.2
55.0%
$7.3
45.0%
$6.0
100.0%
$13.3
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
12.9%
$1.7
9.3%
$1.3
20.3%
$2.7
15.0%
$2.0
57.5%
$7.8
42.5%
$5.7
100.0%
$13.5
% Distribution
20.1%
$12.9
15.4%
$9.9
27.8%
$17.9
15.5%
$10.0
78.8%
$50.8
411.0%
$264.9
100.0%
$64.5
% Distribution
4.8%
$1.1
8.1%
$1.8
19.6%
$4.3
12.5%
$2.7
45.0%
$9.9
55.0%
$12.1
100.0%
$21.9
16.2%
$14.0
13.5%
$11.7
25.7%
$22.2
14.8%
$12.8
70.2%
$60.7
320.6%
$277.0
100.0%
$86.4
12.5%
$2.0
$16.0
32,300
$495
8.8%
-33.6%
15.0%
$2.1
$13.7
35,000
$395
-12.5%
-12.2%
20.0%
$5.6
$27.8
68,800
$405
-12.1%
-12.0%
22.5%
$3.7
$16.5
35,000
$470
18.0%
$13.3
$74.0
171,100
$430
19.3%
-13.4%
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
Percent Inflow:
F-2
APPENDIX F
Table F-5
Total
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Other:
Total:
18.5%
$5.1
98.0%
$27.0
2.0%
$0.6
100.0%
$27.6
32.4%
$3.6
17.0%
$1.9
87.5%
$9.7
12.5%
$1.4
100.0%
$11.1
11.3%
$1.5
20.7%
$2.8
9.0%
$1.2
55.0%
$7.5
45.0%
$6.1
100.0%
$13.6
12.9%
$1.7
9.3%
$1.3
20.3%
$2.7
15.0%
$2.0
57.5%
$7.8
42.5%
$5.8
100.0%
$13.5
% Distribution
20.2%
$13.2
15.4%
$10.1
27.9%
$18.3
15.6%
$10.2
79.0%
$51.9
21.0%
$13.8
100.0%
$65.7
% Distribution
4.8%
$1.1
8.1%
$1.8
19.6%
$4.4
12.5%
$2.8
45.0%
$10.0
55.0%
$12.3
100.0%
$22.3
16.3%
$14.3
13.6%
$11.9
25.8%
$22.7
14.8%
$13.0
70.4%
$62.0
29.6%
$26.1
100.0%
$88.0
12.5%
$2.0
$16.4
32,300
$505
11.3%
-32.2%
15.0%
$2.1
$14.0
35,000
$400
-10.6%
-11.1%
20.0%
$5.7
$28.4
68,800
$410
-10.3%
-10.9%
22.5%
$3.8
$16.8
35,000
$480
18.0%
$13.6
$75.6
171,100
$440
21.9%
-11.4%
Node 3:
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Node 7:
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Node 7:
Price
Chopper
A&P
Robinson's
Independent
Grocer
Wal-Mart
Food
Component
Central Zone:
% Distribution
27.2%
$7.5
18.9%
$5.2
33.3%
$9.2
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
19.0%
$2.1
19.1%
$2.1
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.0%
$1.9
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
2015
FORECAST
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
Percent Inflow:
Node 2:
Other
Downtown
Core:
Table F-6
Huntsville Department Store Impact Analysis: 2007
2007
ESTIMATE
Node 3:
Node 7:
Total
Huntsville
Place Mall
Gateway
Commercial
Campus
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Zellers
Wal-Mart
Other:
Total:
Central Zone:
% Distribution
35.5%
$5.3
56.0%
$8.4
91.5%
$13.8
8.5%
$1.3
100.0%
$15.1
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
37.0%
$2.5
43.5%
$2.9
80.5%
$5.3
19.5%
$1.3
100.0%
$6.6
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
16.5%
$1.3
48.0%
$3.7
64.5%
$4.9
35.5%
$2.7
100.0%
$7.6
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
19.5%
$2.0
54.5%
$5.6
74.0%
$7.6
26.0%
$2.7
100.0%
$10.3
% Distribution
27.9%
$11.1
52.0%
$20.6
79.9%
$31.6
20.1%
$8.0
100.0%
$39.6
% Distribution
6.0%
$0.9
14.0%
$2.0
20.0%
$2.9
80.0%
$11.7
100.0%
$14.6
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
22.0%
$11.9
41.7%
$22.6
63.8%
$34.6
36.2%
$19.7
100.0%
$54.2
Percent Inflow:
15.0%
$2.1
$14.1
88,100
$160
25.0%
$7.5
$30.2
84,900
$355
21.8%
$9.7
$44.2
173,000
$255
F-3
APPENDIX F
Table F-7
2009
FORECAST
Node 3:
Node 7:
Total
Huntsville
Place Mall
Gateway
Commercial
Campus
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Zellers
Wal-Mart
Other:
Total:
Central Zone:
% Distribution
28.0%
$4.8
64.0%
$10.9
92.0%
$15.7
8.0%
$1.4
100.0%
$17.1
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
33.0%
$2.4
47.5%
$3.4
80.5%
$5.8
19.5%
$1.4
100.0%
$7.2
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.0%
$1.2
48.5%
$4.0
62.5%
$5.2
37.5%
$3.1
100.0%
$8.3
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
17.0%
$1.9
60.0%
$6.6
77.0%
$8.4
23.0%
$2.5
100.0%
$10.9
% Distribution
23.4%
$10.2
57.3%
$24.9
80.7%
$35.1
19.3%
$8.4
100.0%
$43.5
% Distribution
4.0%
$0.7
21.0%
$3.4
25.0%
$4.1
75.0%
$12.2
100.0%
$16.3
18.1%
$10.8
47.4%
$28.4
65.5%
$39.2
34.5%
$20.6
100.0%
$59.8
15.0%
$1.9
$12.7
88,100
$145
-9.3%
20.0%
$7.1
$35.4
104,900
$340
17.4%
-4.2%
18.7%
$9.0
$48.2
193,000
$250
8.9%
-2.0%
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
Percent Inflow:
Change in Sales Per Sq. Ft. from 2007:
Table F-8
2011
FORECAST
Node 3:
Node 7:
Total
Huntsville
Place Mall
Gateway
Commercial
Campus
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Zellers
Wal-Mart
Other:
Total:
Central Zone:
% Distribution
28.0%
$5.1
64.0%
$11.7
92.0%
$16.8
8.0%
$1.5
100.0%
$18.3
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
33.0%
$2.5
47.5%
$3.5
80.5%
$6.0
19.5%
$1.5
100.0%
$7.4
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.0%
$1.2
48.5%
$4.2
62.5%
$5.4
37.5%
$3.3
100.0%
$8.7
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
17.0%
$1.9
60.0%
$6.7
77.0%
$8.6
23.0%
$2.6
100.0%
$11.1
% Distribution
23.5%
$10.7
57.4%
$26.1
80.8%
$36.8
19.2%
$8.7
100.0%
$45.5
% Distribution
6.9%
$1.2
18.1%
$3.1
25.0%
$4.2
75.0%
$12.7
100.0%
$16.9
19.0%
$11.8
46.7%
$29.2
65.7%
$41.0
34.3%
$21.4
100.0%
$62.4
15.0%
$2.1
$13.9
88,100
$160
-0.9%
20.0%
$7.3
$36.4
104,900
$345
20.8%
-2.8%
18.6%
$9.4
$50.4
193,000
$260
13.9%
2.0%
4099.4%
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
Percent Inflow:
F-4
APPENDIX F
Table F-9
2013
FORECAST
Node 3:
Node 7:
Total
Huntsville
Place Mall
Gateway
Commercial
Campus
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Zellers
Wal-Mart
Other:
Total:
Central Zone:
% Distribution
28.0%
$5.4
64.0%
$12.3
92.0%
$17.7
8.0%
$1.5
100.0%
$19.2
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
33.0%
$2.5
47.5%
$3.7
80.5%
$6.2
19.5%
$1.5
100.0%
$7.7
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.0%
$1.3
48.5%
$4.4
62.5%
$5.6
37.5%
$3.4
100.0%
$9.0
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
17.0%
$1.9
60.0%
$6.8
77.0%
$8.7
23.0%
$2.6
100.0%
$11.3
% Distribution
23.5%
$11.1
57.4%
$27.2
80.9%
$38.3
19.1%
$9.0
100.0%
$47.3
% Distribution
6.9%
$1.2
18.1%
$3.2
25.0%
$4.4
75.0%
$13.2
100.0%
$17.6
19.0%
$12.3
46.8%
$30.3
65.8%
$42.7
34.2%
$22.2
100.0%
$64.9
15.0%
$2.2
$14.5
88,100
$165
3.2%
20.0%
$7.6
$37.9
104,900
$360
25.7%
1.4%
18.6%
$9.8
$52.4
193,000
$270
18.5%
5.9%
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
Percent Inflow:
Table F-10
2015
FORECAST
Node 3:
Node 7:
Total
Huntsville
Place Mall
Gateway
Commercial
Campus
Huntsville
Urban
Area
Zellers
Wal-Mart
Other:
Total:
Central Zone:
% Distribution
28.0%
$5.7
64.0%
$13.0
92.0%
$18.7
8.0%
$1.6
100.0%
$20.3
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
33.0%
$2.6
47.5%
$3.8
80.5%
$6.4
19.5%
$1.5
100.0%
$7.9
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.0%
$1.3
48.5%
$4.6
62.5%
$5.9
37.5%
$3.5
100.0%
$9.4
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
17.0%
$2.0
60.0%
$7.0
77.0%
$8.9
23.0%
$2.7
100.0%
$11.6
% Distribution
23.5%
$11.6
57.4%
$28.3
81.0%
$39.9
19.0%
$9.4
100.0%
$49.2
% Distribution
6.9%
$1.3
18.1%
$3.3
25.0%
$4.6
75.0%
$13.7
100.0%
$18.2
19.0%
$12.8
46.8%
$31.6
65.8%
$44.4
34.2%
$23.0
100.0%
$67.5
15.0%
$2.3
$15.1
88,100
$170
7.6%
20.0%
$7.9
$39.5
104,900
$375
30.8%
5.6%
18.6%
$10.2
$54.6
193,000
$285
23.4%
11.8%
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
Percent Inflow:
F-5
APPENDIX F
Table F-11
Other DSTM Store Sales: 2007 (Excludes Dept. Store and HI)
2007
ESTIMATE
Total
Other
Locations
Total
76.0%
$28.6
24.0%
$9.0
100.0%
$37.7
3.2%
$0.6
65.0%
$12.2
35.0%
$6.5
100.0%
$18.7
0.6%
$0.1
1.3%
$0.2
37.0%
$7.2
63.0%
$12.3
100.0%
$19.5
0.1%
$0.0
1.6%
$0.4
2.4%
$0.6
50.0%
$11.9
50.0%
$11.9
100.0%
$23.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
1.1%
$1.1
2.5%
$2.5
60.1%
$59.9
39.9%
$39.8
100.0%
$99.7
1.1%
$0.5
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.2%
$0.1
0.3%
$0.1
20.0%
$8.6
80.0%
$34.4
100.0%
$43.0
5.9%
$8.4
3.8%
$5.5
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
0.8%
$1.2
1.9%
$2.7
48.0%
$68.5
52.0%
$74.2
100.0%
$142.8
20.0%
$2.1
$10.5
39,100
$265
20.0%
$1.4
$6.8
15,600
$440
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
$0
20.0%
$0.0
$0.1
1,200
$105
25.0%
$0.4
$1.6
9,300
$170
20.0%
$0.7
$3.3
19,800
$170
22.0%
$19.3
$87.8
395,300
$220
Node 1
Node 2:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Huntsville
Downtown
Core:
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Highway
60
Highway
3
Main Street
West of
Downtown
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Other
Huntsville
Central Zone:
% Distribution
30.5%
$11.5
24.5%
$9.2
9.8%
$3.7
7.1%
$2.7
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.0
1.1%
$0.4
2.9%
$1.1
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
24.3%
$4.6
22.7%
$4.2
7.3%
$1.4
6.4%
$1.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.2%
$0.0
1.0%
$0.2
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
17.0%
$3.3
10.1%
$2.0
5.0%
$1.0
3.0%
$0.6
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
14.2%
$3.4
22.9%
$5.5
6.5%
$1.6
2.3%
$0.5
0.0%
$0.0
% Distribution
22.8%
$22.7
21.0%
$20.9
7.6%
$7.6
5.0%
$5.0
% Distribution
11.8%
$5.1
4.7%
$2.0
1.8%
$0.8
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
19.5%
$27.8
16.1%
$23.0
23.1%
$8.4
$36.2
170,600
$210
21.8%
$6.4
$29.3
139,700
$210
Percent Inflow:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 8:
Huntsville
Urban
Area
F-6
APPENDIX F
Table F-12
2009
FORECAST
Total
Other
Locations
Total
84.0%
$33.0
16.0%
$6.3
100.0%
$39.2
7.7%
$1.5
72.5%
$13.9
27.5%
$3.8
100.0%
$19.1
1.7%
$0.3
3.0%
$0.6
37.0%
$7.4
63.0%
$3.4
100.0%
$20.1
0.1%
$0.0
4.3%
$1.0
5.6%
$1.3
57.5%
$13.7
42.5%
$7.3
100.0%
$23.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
3.9%
$4.0
6.3%
$6.5
66.4%
$67.9
33.6%
$34.3
100.0%
$102.2
0.3%
$0.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.7%
$0.3
2.0%
$0.9
23.0%
$10.1
77.0%
$33.7
100.0%
$43.8
4.9%
$7.2
1.9%
$2.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
2.9%
$4.3
5.0%
$7.3
53.4%
$78.0
46.6%
$68.0
100.0%
$146.0
20.0%
$1.8
$9.0
39,100
$230
-13.8%
20.0%
$0.7
$3.5
15,600
$225
-48.8%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
$0
20.0%
$0.0
$0.1
1,200
$95
-11.7%
25.0%
$1.4
$5.7
27,400
$210
256.0%
23.5%
$2.2
$9.6
49,800
$190
187.4%
22.5%
$22.4
$100.4
484,800
$205
14.3%
Node 1
Node 2:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Huntsville
Downtown
Core:
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Highway
3
Main Street
West of
Downtown
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Highway
60
Central Zone:
% Distribution
Other
Huntsville
25.7%
$10.1
35.1%
$13.8
8.1%
$3.2
2.8%
$1.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.0
4.5%
$1.8
7.8%
$3.1
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
20.4%
$3.9
29.6%
$5.7
6.3%
$1.2
3.9%
$0.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.2%
$0.0
4.5%
$0.9
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.6%
$2.9
12.6%
$2.5
4.1%
$0.8
1.0%
$0.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
12.0%
$2.9
27.6%
$6.6
5.2%
$1.2
2.7%
$0.6
0.0%
$0.0
% Distribution
19.3%
$19.8
27.9%
$28.5
6.3%
$6.4
2.6%
$2.7
% Distribution
11.9%
$5.2
6.4%
$2.8
1.8%
$0.8
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
17.1%
$25.0
21.5%
$31.3
23.0%
$7.5
$32.4
170,600
$190
-10.3%
21.5%
$8.7
$40.0
181,100
$220
36.5%
Percent Inflow:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 8:
Huntsville
Urban
Area
F-7
APPENDIX F
Table F-13
2011
FORECAST
Total
Other
Locations
Total
84.0%
$35.2
16.0%
$6.7
100.0%
$41.9
7.7%
$1.5
72.5%
$14.4
27.5%
$0.0
100.0%
$19.8
1.7%
$0.4
3.0%
$0.6
37.0%
$7.8
63.0%
$0.2
100.0%
$21.0
0.1%
$0.0
4.3%
$1.0
5.6%
$1.3
57.5%
$13.9
42.5%
$0.4
100.0%
$24.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
3.9%
$4.2
6.3%
$6.8
66.6%
$71.2
33.4%
$35.7
100.0%
$106.9
0.3%
$0.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.7%
$0.3
2.0%
$0.9
23.0%
$10.5
77.0%
$35.0
100.0%
$45.5
5.0%
$7.6
1.9%
$2.9
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
2.9%
$4.5
5.0%
$7.7
53.6%
$81.7
46.4%
$70.7
100.0%
$152.4
20.0%
$1.9
$9.4
39,100
$240
-9.7%
20.0%
$0.7
$3.7
15,600
$235
-46.5%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
$0
20.0%
$0.0
$0.1
1,200
$100
-7.8%
25.0%
$1.5
$6.0
27,400
$220
272.2%
23.5%
$2.3
$10.0
49,800
$200
201.0%
22.5%
$23.4
$105.1
484,800
$215
19.7%
Node 1
Node 2:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Huntsville
Downtown
Core:
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Highway
3
Main Street
West of
Downtown
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Highway
60
Other
Huntsville
Central Zone:
% Distribution
25.7%
$10.7
35.1%
$14.7
8.1%
$3.4
2.8%
$1.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.0
4.5%
$1.9
7.8%
$3.3
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
20.4%
$4.0
29.6%
$5.9
6.3%
$1.2
3.9%
$0.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.2%
$0.0
4.5%
$0.9
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.6%
$3.1
12.6%
$2.7
4.1%
$0.9
1.0%
$0.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
12.0%
$2.9
27.6%
$6.7
5.2%
$1.3
2.7%
$0.7
0.0%
$0.0
% Distribution
19.4%
$20.8
28.0%
$29.9
6.3%
$6.7
2.6%
$2.8
% Distribution
11.9%
$5.4
6.4%
$2.9
1.8%
$0.8
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
17.2%
$26.2
21.5%
$32.8
23.0%
$7.8
$34.0
170,600
$200
-5.9%
21.5%
$9.1
$41.9
181,100
$230
42.9%
Percent Inflow:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 8:
Huntsville
Urban
Area
F-8
APPENDIX F
Table F-14
2013
FORECAST
Total
Other
Locations
Total
84.0%
$37.1
16.0%
$7.1
100.0%
$44.2
7.7%
$1.6
72.5%
$14.9
27.5%
$0.0
100.0%
$20.5
1.7%
$0.4
3.0%
$0.7
37.0%
$8.1
63.0%
$2.6
100.0%
$21.8
0.1%
$0.0
4.3%
$1.1
5.6%
$1.4
57.5%
$14.2
42.5%
$2.2
100.0%
$24.7
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
3.9%
$4.3
6.3%
$7.1
66.8%
$74.3
33.2%
$37.0
100.0%
$111.2
0.3%
$0.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.7%
$0.3
2.0%
$0.9
23.0%
$10.9
77.0%
$36.3
100.0%
$47.2
5.0%
$7.9
1.9%
$3.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
2.9%
$4.7
5.0%
$8.0
53.5%
$85.1
46.5%
$73.3
100.0%
$158.4
20.0%
$2.0
$9.8
39,100
$250
-5.9%
20.0%
$0.8
$3.8
15,600
$245
-44.4%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
$0
20.0%
$0.0
$0.1
1,200
$100
-4.2%
25.0%
$1.5
$6.2
27,400
$225
287.2%
23.5%
$2.4
$10.4
49,800
$210
213.4%
22.5%
$24.4
$109.5
484,800
$225
Node 1
Node 2:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Huntsville
Downtown
Core:
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Highway
3
Main Street
West of
Downtown
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Highway
60
Other
Huntsville
Central Zone:
% Distribution
25.7%
$11.3
35.1%
$15.5
8.1%
$3.6
2.8%
$1.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.0
4.5%
$2.0
7.8%
$3.5
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
20.4%
$4.2
29.6%
$6.1
6.3%
$1.3
3.9%
$0.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.2%
$0.0
4.5%
$0.9
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.6%
$3.2
12.6%
$2.8
4.1%
$0.9
1.0%
$0.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
12.0%
$3.0
27.6%
$6.8
5.2%
$1.3
2.7%
$0.7
0.0%
$0.0
% Distribution
19.5%
$21.7
28.0%
$31.2
6.3%
$7.0
2.6%
$2.9
% Distribution
11.9%
$5.6
6.4%
$3.0
1.8%
$0.8
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
17.2%
$27.3
21.6%
$34.2
23.0%
$8.2
$35.5
170,600
$210
-2.0%
21.5%
$9.5
$43.7
181,100
$240
48.8%
Percent Inflow:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 8:
Huntsville
Urban
Area
F-9
APPENDIX F
Table F-15
2015
FORECAST
Total
Other
Locations
Total
84.0%
$39.1
16.0%
$7.4
100.0%
$46.5
7.7%
$1.6
72.5%
#REF!
27.5%
$0.0
100.0%
$21.2
1.7%
$0.4
3.0%
$0.7
37.0%
#REF!
63.0%
$0.0
100.0%
$22.7
0.1%
$0.0
4.3%
$1.1
5.6%
$1.4
57.5%
#REF!
42.5%
$0.0
100.0%
$25.3
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
3.9%
$4.5
6.4%
$7.4
#REF!
#REF!
0.3%
$0.1
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
0.7%
$0.3
2.0%
$1.0
5.0%
$8.2
1.9%
$3.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.1
2.9%
$4.8
5.0%
$8.3
20.0%
$2.0
$10.2
39,100
$260
-2.0%
20.0%
$0.8
$4.0
15,600
$255
-42.2%
0.0%
$0.0
$0.0
0
$0
20.0%
$0.0
$0.1
1,200
$105
-0.4%
25.0%
$1.6
$6.5
27,400
$235
302.9%
23.5%
$2.5
$10.9
49,800
$220
226.5%
Node 1
Node 2:
Node 6:
Node 7:
Huntsville
Downtown
Core:
Other
Downtown
Huntsville
Huntsville
Place
Mall
Highway
3
Main Street
West of
Downtown
Muskoka
Commerce
Park
Highway
60
Central Zone:
% Distribution
Other
Huntsville
25.7%
$11.9
35.1%
$16.3
8.1%
$3.8
2.8%
$1.3
0.0%
$0.0
0.1%
$0.0
4.5%
$2.1
7.8%
$3.6
Zone 2: East Zone
% Distribution
20.4%
$4.3
29.6%
$6.3
6.3%
$1.3
3.9%
$0.8
0.0%
$0.0
0.2%
$0.0
4.5%
$0.9
Zone 3: West Zone
% Distribution
14.6%
$3.3
12.6%
$2.9
4.1%
$0.9
1.0%
$0.2
0.0%
$0.0
0.0%
$0.0
Zone 4: North Zone
% Distribution
12.0%
$3.0
27.6%
$7.0
5.2%
$1.3
2.7%
$0.7
0.0%
$0.0
% Distribution
19.5%
$22.6
28.1%
$32.5
6.3%
$7.3
2.6%
$3.0
% Distribution
11.9%
$5.8
6.4%
$3.1
1.8%
$0.9
Total Study Area:
% Distribution
17.3%
$28.5
21.6%
$35.6
23.0%
$8.5
$37.0
170,600
$215
2.2%
21.5%
$9.9
$45.5
181,100
$250
55.0%
Percent Inflow:
Node 3:
Node 4:
Node 5:
Node 8:
Huntsville
Urban
Area
23.0%
$11.3
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
100.0%
$115.7
77.0%
$37.8
100.0%
$49.0
#REF!
#REF!
100.0%
$164.7
22.5%
$25.4
$114.1
484,800
$235
F-10
Suite 201, 140 Renfrew Dr.
Markham, Ontario L3R 6B3
Tel: 1.905.513.0170
www.mgp.ca
Contact:
Lee Parsons, P.Eng., MCIP, RPP
Tel: 1.905.513.0170 Ext. 110
[email protected]
Sean Finlay, BES, MBA
Tel: 1.905.513.0170 Ext. 135
[email protected]