The Ministry of Higher and Special Education of Republic of
Transcription
The Ministry of Higher and Special Education of Republic of
The Ministry of Higher and Special Education of Republic of Uzbekistan Samarkand Institute of Economies and Services Theme: Economy of Uzbekistan Done by:Axmedov A Checked up: Samandarov Samarkand 2015 Eonomy of Uzbekistan Since independence, the Government of Uzbekistan has stated that it is committed to a gradual transition to a market- based economy. The progress with economic policy reforms has been cautious, but cumulatively Uzbekistan has registered respectable achievements. The government has eliminated the gap between the black market and official exchange rate by successfully introducing convertibility of the national currency, but its restrictive trade regime and generally interventionist policies continue to have a negative effect on the economy. Substantial structural reform is needed, particularly in the area of improving the investment climate for foreign investors, strengthening the banking system, and freeing the agricultural sector from state control. Remaining restrictions on currency conversion capacity and other government measures to control economic activity, including the implementation of severe import restrictions and sporadic closures of Uzbekistan's borders with neighboring Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan have led international lending organizations to suspend or scale back credits. The government working closely with IMF has made considerable progress in reducing inflation and the budget deficit. The national currency was made convertible in 2003 as part of the IMF-engineered stabilization program, although some administrative restrictions remain. Agriculture and manufacturing industries contribute equally to the economy, each accounting for about one-quarter of GDP. Uzbekistan is a major producer and exporter of cotton, although the importance of this commodity has declined significantly since independence. Uzbekistan is also a major producer of gold with the largest open-pit gold mine in the world and has substantial deposits of copper GDP and employment This is a chart of trend of gross domestic product of Uzbekistan in constant prices of 1995 estimated by the International Monetary Fund with figures in millions of som. The chart also shows the consumer price index(CPI) as a measure of inflation from the same source and the end-of-year U.S. dollar exchange rate from the Central Bank of Uzbekistan database. For purchasing power parity comparisons in 2006, the U.S. dollar is exchanged at 340 som. Uzbekistan's GDP, like that of all CIS countries, declined during the first years of transition and then recovered after 1995, as the cumulative effect of policy reforms began to be felt. It has shown robust growth, rising by 4% per year between 1998 and 2003 and accelerating thereafter to 7%-8% per year. According to IMF estimates, the GDP in 2008 will be almost double its value in 1995 (in constant prices). Given the growing economy, the total number of employed rose from 8.5 million in 1995 to 10.5 million in 2006. This healthy increase of nearly 25% in the labor force lagged behind the increase in GDP during the same period (64%, see chart), which implies a significant increase in labor productivity. Official unemployment is very low: less than 30,000 job seekers were registered in government labor exchanges in 2005-2006 (0.3% of the labor force). Underemployment, on the other hand, is believed to be quite high, especially in agriculture, which accounts for fully 28% of all employed, many of them working part-time on tiny household plots, but no reliable figures are available in the absence of credible labor surveys. The minimum wage, public-sector wages, and old-age pensions are routinely raised twice a year to ensure that base income is not eroded by inflation. Although no statistics are published on average wages in Uzbekistan, pensions as a proxy for the average wage increased significantly between 1995 and 2006 both in real terms and in U.S. dollars. The monthly old-age pension increased in real (CPI- adjusted) soms by almost a factor of 5 between 1995 and 2006. The monthly pension in U.S. dollars was around $20~$25 until 2000, then dropped to $15-$20 between 2001 and 2004, and recently rose to $30. The minimum wage was raised to $14.6 in November 2007. Assuming that the average wages in the country are at a level of 3-4 times the monthly pension, we estimate the wages in 2006 at $90- $120 per month, or $3-$4 per day. This conservative estimate should be compared with President Karimov's public declaration that the average wage in December 2007 (including both the private and the public sector) was equivalent to US$210. The true average wage is probably somewhere between these two numbers. According to the forecast by the Asian Development Bank, GDP in Uzbekistan in 2009 is expected to grow by 7%. Meanwhile, in 2010 the Uzbekistan GDP growth is predicted at 6,5%. Labor Literacy in Uzbekistan is almost universal, and workers are generally welleducated and trained. Most local technical and managerial training does not meet international business standards, but foreign companies engaged in production report that locally hired workers learn quickly and work effectively. Foreign firms generally find that younger workers, untainted by the Soviet system, work well at all levels. The government emphasizes foreign education and each year sends about 50 students to the United States, Europe, and Japan for university degrees, after which they have a commitment to work for the government for 5 years. Reportedly, about 60% of the students who study abroad find employment with foreign companies on their return, despite their 5-year commitment to work in the government. Some American companies offer special training programs in the United States to their local employees. In addition, Uzbekistan subsidizes studies for students at Westminster International University in Tashkent—the only Western-style institution in Uzbekistan. In 2002, the government "Hope" Program is paying for 98 out of 155 students studying at Westminster. For the next academic year, Westminster is expecting to admit 360 students, from which Umid is expecting to pay for 160 students. The education at Westminster costs $4,800 per academic year. With the closure or downsizing of many foreign firms, it is relatively easy to find qualified, well- trained employees, and salaries are very low by Western standards. Salary caps, which the government implements in an apparent attempt to prevent firms from circumventing restrictions on withdrawal of cash from banks, prevent many foreign firms from paying their workers as much as they would like. Labor market regulations in Uzbekistan are similar to those of the Soviet Union, with all rights guaranteed but some rights unobserved. Unemployment is a growing problem, and the number of people looking for jobs in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Southeast Asia is increasing each year. Uzbekistan's Ministry of Labor does not publish information on Uzbek citizens working abroad, but Russia's Federal Migration Service reports 2.5 Uzbek migrant workers in Russia and there are indications of up to 1 million Uzbek migrants working illegally in Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan's migrant workers may thus be around 3.5-4 million people, or a staggering 25% of its labor force of 14.8 million. The U.S. Department of State also estimates that between 3 million and 5 million Uzbek citizens of working age live outside Uzbekistan. External trade and investment Uzbekistan's foreign trade policy is based on import substitution. The system of multiple exchange rates combined with the highly regulated trade regime caused both imports and exports to drop each from about US$4.5 billion in 1996 to less than US$3 billion in 2002. The success of stabilization and currency liberalization in 2003 has led to significant increases in exports and imports in recent years, although imports have increased much less rapidly: while exports had more than doubled to US$6.5 by 2006, imports had risen to US$4.5 billion only, reflecting the impact of the government's import substitution policies designed to maintain hard currency reserves. Draconian tariffs, sporadic border closures, and border crossing "fees" have a negative effect on legal imports of both consumer products and capital equipment. Uzbek farmers are deprived of seasonal opportunities to sell legally their popular tomatoes and vegetables for good prices in Kazakhstan. Instead, they are forced to dump their produce at reduced prices on local markets or alternatively continue "exporting" by paying stiff bribes to border guards and customs officers. Uzbek consumers are deprived of access to low-cost Chinese goods that cross the border from Kyrgyzstan in normal times. Uzbekistan's traditional trade partners are the CIS countries, notably Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, which in aggregate account for over 40% of its exports and imports. Non-CIS partners have been increasing in importance in recent years, with Turkey, China, Iran, South Korea, and the EU being the most active. As of 2006, Russia remains the main foreign trade partner for Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is a member of the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. It has observer status at the World Trade Organization, is a member of the World Intellectual Property Organization, and is a signatory to the Convention on Settlement of Investment Disputes Between States and Nationals of Other States, the Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Property, the Madrid Agreement on Trademarks Protection, and the Patent Cooperation Treaty. In 2002, Uzbekistan was again placed on the special "301" Watch List for lack of intellectual copyright protection. According to EBRD transition indicators, Uzbekistan's investment climate remains among the least favorable in the CIS, with only Belarus and Turkmenistan ranking lower. The unfavorable investment climate has caused foreign investment inflows to dwindle to a trickle. It is believed that Uzbekistan has the lowest level of FDI per capita in the CIS. Since Uzbekistan's independence, U.S. firms have invested roughly $500 million in the country, but due to declining investor confidence, harassment, and currency convertibility problems, numerous international investors have left the country or are considering leaving. In 2006, the Government of Uzbekistan forced out Newmont Mining Corporation (at the time the largest U.S. investor) from its gold mining joint venture in the Muruntau gold mine. Newmont and the government resolved their dispute, but the action adversely affected Uzbekistan's image among foreign investors. The government attempted the same with British-owned Oxus Mining. Coscom, a U.S.-owned telecommunications company, involuntarily sold its stake in a joint venture to another foreign company. GM-DAT, a Korean subsidiary of GM, is the only known U.S. business to have entered Uzbekistan in over two years. It recently signed a joint-venture agreement with UzDaewoo to assemble Koreanmanufactured cars for export and domestic sale. Other large U.S. investors in Uzbekistan include Case IH, manufacturing and servicing cotton harvesters and tractors; Coca Cola, with bottling plants in Tashkent, Namangan, and Samarkand; Texaco, producing lubricants for sale in the Uzbek market; and Baker Hughes, in oil and gas development. O’zbekiston iqtisodiyoti Mustaqilikdan beri O’zbekiston hukumatining ma’lumot berishicha asta-sekin bozor iqtisodiyotiga o’tish kuzatilyapti. Iqtisodiy – siyosiy o’zgarishlarga ega bo’lgan siljish ancha ehtiyotkor lekin O’zbekiston aytarli yutuqlarni ro’yxatdan o’kazdi. Hukumat milliy valyutani qaytarishni o’z ichiga olgan rasmiy pul almashtirish joyi va qora bozor o’rtasidagi tafovutni yo’q qildi. Lekin uning chegaralangan iqtisodiy rejimi va umumiy vositachilik siyosatlari iqtisodiyotda inkor natijalarni keltirib chiqarishni davom ettiradi. Ulkan strukturaviy o’zgarishlar qilinyapdi: chet el envestorlari uchun pul almashtirishlarni yo’lga qo’yish, bank tizimini kuchaytirish, qishloq xo’jalik sektorini davlat nazoratidan ozod qilish kabilar. Valyutani o’zgartirish hajmini cheklashlar shundayligicha davom etyapti. Iqtisodiy faoliyatni boshqarish uchun boshqa hukumat tadbirlari davom etyapdi. Junladan , juda muhim o’zgartirish cheklovlari, tugatishlar ham ko’p O’zbekistonning chegaradoshlari bo’lmish Qozog’iston, Qirg’iziston, Tojikiston kabi qo’shnilari bilan barcha kreditlarni hisoblab , chetlashtirish uchun xalqaro qarz berish tashkilotlarini boshqaryapti. IMF bilan yaqindan ishlayotgan hukumat budjetdagi kamchiliklar va inflatsiyani yo’qotishda aytarli siljishlar qildi. Milliy valyuta 2003-yil IMFning bir qismi sifatida qayta yaratildi. Ma’muriy o’zgarishlar davom etsada, qishloq xo’jaligi va manufaktura sanoatlari iqtisodiyotga teng hissa qo’shyapti, GDP ning ¼ qismi uchun 1ta to’g’ri kelyapti. Mustaqillikdan buyon oziq-ovqatning ahamiyati ancha tushgan bo’lsada , O’zbekiston dunyodagi eng katta oltinlarga ega bo’lgan asosiy oltin yetishtiruvchidir va unda ulkan depozitlar va ish o’rinlari bor. Yaqinda Mustaqil Davlatlar Hamdo‘stligi davlatlararo statistika qo‘mitasi mintaqa mamlakatlarining 2014-yil birinchi yarim yilligidagi rivojlanish ko‘rsatkichlarini e’lon qildi. Unga ko‘ra, O‘zbekiston sanoat mahsulotlari ishlab chiqarish bo‘yicha MDHda birinchi o‘rinni egalladi. Bundan atigi 23 yil oldin O‘zbekiston ushbu mintaqada ayni shu ko‘rsatkichlar bo‘yicha eng oxirgi o‘rinlarda turardi. Prezident rahnamoligida iqtisodiyot tarkibi tubdan o‘zgartirilgani, sanoat rivojiga alohida e’tibor qaratilgani samarasida O‘zbekiston bu sohada ham birinchilar safiga chiqib oldi. Turli islohotlar samarasida istiqlol yillarida O‘zbekiston iqtisodiyoti qariyb besh karra o‘sdi.Aholi daromadlari jon boshiga 8,7 barobar ko‘paydi. Keyingi o‘n yilda O‘zbekiston yalpi ichki mahsulotining o‘sish sur’ati sakkiz foizdan oshdi. Joriy yilning birinchi yarmida bu ko‘rsatkich 8,1 foizni tashkil etdi. Erishilgan natijalar bilan cheklanmasdan, iqtisodiyotni yanada rivojlantirishning qo‘shimcha imkoniyatlari izlanmoqda. 2013-yil 22-noyabr kuni poytaxtda Osiyo quyosh energiyasi forumining oltinchi yig‘ilishi o‘tkazildi. Xalqaro energetika agentligi, Birlashgan Millatlar Tashkilotining Sanoatni rivojlantirish tashkiloti, Islom taraqqiyot banki va boshqa xalqaro tuzilmalar vakillari, soha mutaxassislari va olimlar ishtirok etgan anjumanda mamlakatimizda quyosh energetikasini rivojlantirish istiqbollari belgilab olindi. O‘zbekistonning har bir go‘shasida ulkan bunyodkorlik ishlari amalga oshirilmoqda. Dunyo miqyosida ham noyob sanalgan yirik zavodlar, sanoat korxonalari ishga tushirilmoqda. Prezident tashabbusi bilan O‘zbekiston shaharlari bosh reja asosida qayta qurilmoqda. Buni Samarqand, Buxoro, Andijon, Namangan, Termiz, Qarshi, Urganch, Nukus, Farg‘ona kabi shaharlar misolida ko‘rish mumkin: ushbu shaharlar qiyofasi butunlay o‘zgardi, ijtimoiy infratuzilma rivojlandi. Madaniyat va san’at saroylari, sog‘liqni saqlash, ta’lim, sport muassasalari, xizmat ko‘rsatish va servis shoxobchalari, dam olish maskanlari hududlar ko‘rkiga ko‘rk qo‘shdi. Qishloqlarda barpo etilayotgan zamonaviy uylar oilalar farovonligini yuksaltirmoqda. Mustaqillik bayrami arafasida minglab ana shunday yangi uyjoylar o‘z egalariga topshirildi. O‘zbekistonda transport infratuzilmasi izchil rivojlanmoqda. Yangi yo‘llar, yo‘l o‘tkazgichlar bunyod etilmoqda. O‘zbekiston hududlari yagona temir yo‘l tarmog‘iga bog‘lanmoqda. 2013-yilda ulkan strategik ahamiyatga ega yana bir yangi yo‘l — Angren-Pop temir yo‘li qurilishi boshlandi. 124 kilometrlik mazkur temir yo‘l, shu jumladan, 19 kilometrlik tunnel O‘zbekistonning markaziy qismini Farg‘ona vodiysi bilan bog‘laydi, Sharqiy Osiyo mamlakatlarining G‘arb davlatlariga chiqishida muhim bo‘g‘in bo‘lib xizmat qiladi. Qishloq xo‘jaligida amalga oshirilgan tub islohotlar, fermerlik harakatining samaradorligi tufayli oziq-ovqat mahsulotlari yetishtirish yildan-yilga ko‘payib bormoqda. Sabzavot, kartoshka, poliz ekinlari, meva, uzum yetishtirish, mevasabzavot mahsulotlarini qayta ishlash hajmi oshib boryapti. Joriy yilning 6-iyunida poytaxtda bo‘lib o‘tgan “O‘zbekistonda oziq-ovqat dasturini amalga oshirishning muhim zaxiralari” mavzusidagi xalqaro konferensiyada qatnashgan xorijlik mutaxassislar va ishbilarmonlar buni yana bir bor e’tirof etdi, O‘zbekiston erishgan yutuqlarni tan oldi. Bu yil dehqonlar sakkiz million 50 ming tonnalik yuksak xirmon bunyod etdi. Mustaqillikkacha don va un ta’minoti bo‘yicha boshqalarga qaram bo‘lib kelgan xalq ayni paytda o‘z ehtiyojini ta’minlash bilan birga, xorijiy davlatlarga don eksport qilmoqda. G‘allachilik rivoji chorvachilik va parrandachilik kabi boshqa ko‘plab tarmoqlarga ham ijobiy ta’sir etib, go‘sht, sut, tuxum kabi oziq-ovqat mahsulotlarining mo‘l bo‘lishini ta’minlamoqda. O'zbekistonning bozor munosabatlariga o'tish yo'liga doir Prez ide nt I. Kar imo v to mo n ida n is hlab c hiq ilga n bes h ta mo il na faqa t resp ublika miz da , s huningdek ja ho n ja moa tc hiligi to monida n ma qulla nd i. Eng muxim , xa lqimiz nin g o'z i bes h ta moilni qabul qild i va qo 'lla bquvva tla di. Birinch isi. Bir qa nc ha ko'rsatadiki, iqtisodiyot ma mla kat la rnin g achchiq tajribas i s iyos iy ma nfatla rga bo'ysund iril ga nda u barbod bo'ldi. Iq t is o d iyo t o 'z i ga xos b o 'l g a ic h k i q o nun la r a sos i da r ivo j la n mo g 'i z a r ur . I qt is o d iyo t , -de b ta k id la y d i I. K a r i mo v , s iyosat ga nisba ta n ust ivor ma vqe yd a bo 'lis hi loz im. Na s iyosat, na ma fkura iqtis od iyotni nazo rat qilis h, un ga ta z iq o'tkaz is h da rajas iga ko 'taril ma s ligi za rur. Ha m ic hk i ha m tas hq i iq tis od iy mu nosa ba tla rni ma fkur ada n ho li q ilis h z a rur. O 'zbe kis tonda "Av va l t ao m , ke yin ka lom" de ga n hik ma tla rga a ma l q il ina d i. Ikkinchisi. Ja hon ta jrib as i iqtiso diyotni da vla t yo'li bila n ta rtib ga s olib turis h z arurl igini ko'rsa ta di. Aks ho lda iqtis od iyot c huq ur la rza la rga, kriz is la rga ma hk um bo 'ladi. "Boz or mu nos aba tlarga o 'tish d a vrida da vla t b os h is lohotc h i , bo 'lis hi b o 'lis hi, iq tis od iyo t va ijti mo iy tur mus hni ng ha mma so ha la rini o'zgar tiris h reja la rini tuz ib, uni izc hillik bila n a ma lga os hiris hi zarur ",- de bta kidla ydi.I. Ka ri mov. M illiy iqtis od ni s ha killa ntiris h va mus taq illikni iqtis od iy jihat da n ta minlas h, uni himoya qilis h, ja ho n ho 'jaligi bila n inte grats iya ga e ris his h, xa lq ma a tini yuza ga c hiqa rishda davlat asosiy rol o'ynaydi. Davlat ixtiyo rida gi iqtis od iy me xa niz mni yo qo tib, o'rni ga birda niga bozo r me xa niz mini o'r nat is h munkin e mas. Shu bo is O 'zbek is tonda da vla t iqtiso d tiz imi birda niga bo 's h q o ' yib yub or il ma d i, un in g xuk u md o r li g i s aq la b q o l ind i. Xo 'ja likning ba za viy tar moqla ri-s uv xo 'ja ligi, te mir yo 'l, a vt o ma b il va ha vo yo 'lla ri, mud o fa a sa noa t i da vla t ixt iyo rid a bo'lib, ularni tadbirkorlik bilan yuritish davlatning vazifasidir. Uchinchisi. Bozor iqtisodiytiga o'tishda qonun va qonunlarga rio ya et is h ust ivor bo 'lis hi loz im. Ne gak i boz or iqtis od iyoti qonunc hilik ka ta ya nad i. U ning qoida la ri, mez onla ri ming yillar da vo mida yarat ilga n. Bozo r iqtis odiyoti huquqi y no r ma la r v a qo id a la r ga t a ya n is h i b ila n ma mur iy- b u yr uq bo z lik t iz i mid a n f a rq q ila d i. Ya hl it b ozo r t iz i mi ni ya ra t is h uc hu n un ing t url i to monla riga oid q onun lar yar at ilis hi ha mda ula rga rio ya qilinis hi s ha rt. Q onunc hilik naza r-p isa nd qilin ma ga n, qonunla r buz ilgan joyda bozo r iqtis odiyotini a ma lga os hiri b bo 'l ma yd i. Qonunni ustivorligi huquqiy davlat barpo e tis h zaruriyatidan ham kelib chiqadi. Qonun oldida hamma barobar. Ba rcha ijt imoiy, e ng a vva lo, iqtis odiy munosa ba tla r faqat qonun bilan tartibga so linard i, uning barcha qat nas hc hila ri es a xec h b ir ist is nos iz huq uq no r ma larini buzganligi uchun javobgar bo'ladi. Huquqiy davlatning mo hiyat i ma lum qonun la r tiz imi borlig i bila n e mas, ba lki o mma ni ng s hu qo nu nla rin ing b o 'lishi, o 'z fa o liya tida u lar ga asoslanish bilan belgilanadi. Tor tinch isi. Axo lining de mo gr a fik ta rkib ini xis ob ga o lga n holda kuc hli ijt imoiy s iyos at ni o'tkaz is h. Bun ing za rur iya ti iqtis odiy a hvol bilan bog'liq. Birinc hida n, O 'zbe kis tonda a xoloning de yarli t o'rtda n uc h q is mi Sho 'ro la r hokimiya tining so'nggi yillaridaham o'zlar ining minima l e htiyo jlar ini qondiris hga qodir bo'lmay, da vlatnin ma dad iga muhtoj ed i. Ikkinc hid a n, a ho li ta rkibida da vlat va ja miya t o'z himoya s iga o lis hi za ru r b o 'lga n b o la la r, o 's mir lar, qa riy a la r ko 'pc hil ik n i tas hk il e ta di. Uc hinc hida n boz or iqtiso diyotiga o'tis h ja rayonida das tlab a holi ijt imoiy jiha tda n ta baq a la na di va himo ya ga muhto j bo'lga nlar qa tla mi ke nga ya di. Shu bois da n iqtis od iy is lohotar ja rayo nida a vva l oda mla rni, biri nc hi navbatda himoya ga muhtoj qatlamini oldindan kuchli dar aja da ijt imoiy himoya las h c horala rini ko 'ris h za rur ligi inoba tga olindi. Ijt imoiy siyosat inflyatsiya keltirib c hiqa rga n q imma tc hilik s ha roi tida a ho li ha rid qo b iliya tin i hi mo ya q i l is h n i ha m k o 'z d a t uta d i. Beshinchisi. Bozor iqtisodiyotiga o'tish evolyuts ion yo'l bila n, puxta o'ylab bosq ic hma-b osq ic h a mlga os hir ilis hi loz im. Bu ning sa ba bi s hunda ki, boz or iqtisod iyoti mura ka b bo'lib, uni birdaniga yaratib bo'lmaydi. Aholining totalitar tuz um s ha roit ida tarkib topga n qa ras hla ri va ko'nik ma la ri bo r, ula rni birda niga boz or iqtis od iyoti s ha ro itiga mos la b o'zga rt irib bo'lmaydi. Gap s hunda ki, totalitar tuzum ps ixologiyas ida n boz or ps ixolo giyas iga o'tis h uc hun mua ya n bir vaq t ha mda ya ngi iqtiso diy, ma 'na viy inkoniya tla r va s haroitla r ke rak. Bula r bos qic hma -bos qic h yarat iladi. Bu ta moil biz ga me ros bo 'lib qolga n ba rcha progress iv jiha tlarga a va yla b munosa ba tda bo'lis hni, "ya ngi uy qur ma y turib , esk is ini b uz ma " de ga n hik ma tga r ioya e tis hni ta qazo eta di. Iqt is odiyotni tubda n is loh qilis h, bozo r munos aba tlarin i s hak illa ntiris hda yuq orida a ytilga n ba rcha ta moilla r birda y muhum va be lgilovc hi a ha myat ga e ga dir.