KARACHI STOCK EXCHANGE
Transcription
KARACHI STOCK EXCHANGE
KARACHI STOCK EXCHANGE ROLE OF CAPITAL MARKET IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Presentation to the ICMA Annual Conference, Lahore by: Nadeem Naqvi Managing Director Karachi Stock Exchange Dec 14, 2013 www.kse.com.pk Why the Capital Market – Background (I) Bulk of commercial bank deposits are for less than one-year As a result, they can engage in only a limited amount of maturity transformation, i.e. borrow short-term and lend long-term In era gone by, long-term financing for industry used to come from public sector development finance institutions (DFI’s) such as NDFC, PICIC, IDBP, Bankers Equity who received long term funding from multi-lateral agencies and lent long term to industry Poor governance & losses led to closure of these DFI’s Despite their operating weakness these DFI’s did play an important role in the industrial development of Pakistan from 1960’s to early 1980’s KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 01 Why the Capital Market – Background (II) It was hoped that a new set of DFI’s could fill the void, so we had government-to-government joint venture Investment Companies such as Pak-Kuwait Investment Company, Saudi-Pak, Pak-Brunei, Pak-Iran, PakChina, Pak-Oman Unfortunately, with a few exceptions, the JV Investment Companies did not fill the void of providing significant long term project finance Globally also, infrastructure and long-term finance has moved from national DFI’s to capital markets in the last two decades In Pakistan, absence of a liquid private sector debt market has meant that there are limited sources available for both the public & private sectors to access long term capital needed for sustainable economic growth KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 02 Role of the Capital Market in Pakistan Despite the above noted limitations, Pakistan’s Capital Market has played an important role in enabling the public and private sectors to access long term funding In the last 10 years, the total amount of equity capital and debt raised has been over PkR 630billion Out of this, over PkR 120billion was raised by the Government of Pakistan via privatization through public offerings If the debt capital market is seriously developed there is no reason why an enormous amount of savings (both domestic and international) can not be tapped for infrastructure and industrial development by the public and private sectors KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 03 Capital Market & Economic Growth Linked Development of Capital Market has been found to be closely linked to the stage of economic development CATEGORY FRONTIER ECONOMIES TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES PER CAPITA GDP Less than US$ 2000 US$ 2,000 to US$ 8,000 EXAMPLES (2011) Financial Markets Development • Nigeria - $1,500 • Increasing monetization of economy • Vietnam - $1,400 • Growing demand for financial services & products • Egypt - $2,780 • When GDP per capita reaches $2,000 30% of population typically has bank accounts • Indonesia - $3,500 • Colombia - $7,100 • Unofficial economy shrinks as SME’s need greater financing from the formal sector • Role of capital market grows • S. Africa - $ 8,070 EMERGING MIDDLE INCOME ECONOMIES US$ 8,000 to US$ 20,000 • Malaysia - $ 9,980 • Pension Funds / Insurance Companies become important institutional investors • Mexico - $ 10,050 • Consumer credit gross • Turkey - $ 10,520 • Businesses become larger needing greater amount of long term funding from capital markets. Debt market becomes increasingly important KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 04 Mind MAP for Pakistan’s Industrialization ENERGY SELF-SUFFICIENCY & IMPORT SUBSTITUTION BASIC INDUSTRIES INFRASTRUCTURE AGRICULTURE AGRI CONSUMER PRODUCTS TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIES RESTRUCTURING COAL OFFSHORE & SHALE OIL & GAS COAL BASED LIQUIDS REFINERY PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX POWER COPPER & MINERALS ALTERNATIVE ENERGY COPPER COPPER SMELTING STEEL STEEL FABRICATION ROADS RAILWAY PORTS MAJOR CROPS YIELD INCREASE DAIRY CORPORTE FARMING FRUITS & HORTICULTURES FISHERIES VALUE ADDED MILK VALUE ADDED HYGIENIC VEGETABLE & FRUIT PRODUCTS MEAT & FISH PRODUCTS INDUSTRY EXPORT INCENTIVES INSTRUMENTATION REJUVINATING SIALKOT INDUSTRIES CARPETS & COTTAGE INDUSTRY EXPORTS TEXTILES INTEGRATED MANUFACTURING & ELECTRICAL COMPONENTS KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 05 Industrialization will need large long-term funding How will critical infrastructure and industry creation by financed? Both domestic and global savings have to tapped for this purpose Multilateral / supra national financial institutions will need to play a major role in raising long term finance for infrastructure & industrial projects The funding mechanism will have to be different from the past New mechanism will be centered around capital market as the primary clearing house for supply & demand of long-term capital KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 06 How GoP can use Capital Market to raise funds In the near-term, the existing equity capital market can provide GoP with immediate funding POTENTIAL REALIZABLE VALUE TO GoP FROM SECONDARY OFFERINGS TO PUBLIC Company OGDC PPL HBL UBL NBP Market Cap (PkRmn) 1,207,228 423,978 215,067 162,449 121,077 Govt. Share % Current Mkt Price (PkR) Premium over Mkt Price 75% 71% 42% 20% 76% 280.7 215.0 161.3 132.7 56.9 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Price with Premium (PkR) 308.8 236.5 177.4 146.0 62.6 Total (Based on price data of Dec 11, 2013) Total cash generation of PkR351bn or about: . Govt. Stake Offered 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% # of shares (mn) Total Sale Value (PkRmn) 645 296 200 184 319 199,193 69,956 35,486 26,804 19,977 1,644 351,416 US$mn 3,261 POTENTIAL CANDIDATES FOR INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING OF 10% STAKE TO GENERAL PUBLIC 1 PARCO 2 Lahore Electricty Supply Company 3 Govt Holding (Pvt) Ltd. 4 State Life Insurance Corp. 5 Joint Venture Investment Comps. (Saudi Pak, Pak Kuwait, Pak Brunei, Pak China, Pak Oman, Pak Libya and Pak Iran) KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 07 How the numbers stack up The GoP generates US$4.0billion equivalent from sale of partial stakes in public sector enterprises which is used as seed capital for new infrastructure projects A further US$2.0billion can be generated through raising equity for specific projects from the capital market Based on a 70:30 debt-equity ratio, US$14.0billion debt can be generated implying potential available funding of US$20.0billion (or PkR2.2trillion) This is substantial funding to kick start core development projects in the medium term (within 2-5 years) KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 08 Sources of long-term debt There are several tried and tested sources of long-term debt: Infrastructure bonds with underlying assets as primary collateral Local currency global bonds with Supranational (eg. IFC) credit rating Diaspora bonds with special incentives for overseas Pakistanis Provincial / Municipal revenue bonds with special tax exemptions and steady cash flow stream Global infrastructure securities had market capitalization of US$1.1trillion at the end of 2012 It is estimated that demand for infrastructure funding in emerging markets will be US$1.0trillion ANNUALLY until 2030 with Asia accounting for 50% KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 09 Capital Suppliers’ Perspective Infrastructure bonds are of particular interest to suppliers of long term capital (global pension funds, insurance comps.) because: 1. Such bonds have / provide creation of long term underlying assets essential to support economic growth 2. Infrastructure generally generates steady cash flows and above average yields 3. Infrastructure projects have limited competition and usually high barriers to entry 4. Although initially capital intensive, infrastructure assets have modest operational expense and therefore have high operating margins that support debt servicing 5. Presence of underlying assets means that possibility of Shariah Compliance financing options are also available KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 10 Imperative of Developing Debt Capital Market In view of the above noted potential, concerted effort is needed to develop our Debt Capital Market In the first instance, secondary market trading of existing Government debt (T-Bills, PIB’s) needs to be encouraged. KSE & CDC are working closely with SECP and SBP with strong support from MoF to put in place the framework and mechanism for KSE’s Bond Automated Trading System (BATS) to be used for secondary market trading of Government securities with emphasis on attracting domestic retail savers and also international institutional debt investors Once familiarity of this mode is established, future infrastructure / municipal bonds can also be traded on the BATS, providing liquidity and depth to Debt Capital Market in Pakistan KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 11 Beyond Infrastructure – Opportunities in Global Mega Trends - I SECTOR TREND OLD WORLD DEMOGRAPHY & SOCIETY Aging population Rising longevity Changing Ethnic Mix Deleveraging & Slow growth Segment Opportunities For Pakistan Nursing Provision Ethnic Market Targeting Health & Halal Food Products Financial Planning Outsourced Online Medical Services TREND NEW WORLD Urbanization/Mega Cities Education Sector Health and Medical Rural Uplift Segment Opportunities Inner city Renewal Education Sector Low Cost Housing Health Clinics/ Pharmacies Internet Health Care Advice and Networking KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 12 Beyond while Infrastructure – Opportunities in Global Mega Trends - II SECTOR ENVIRONMENT, ENERGY, WATER RESOURCES SECTOR OLD WORLD Recycling Afforestation Alternative Energy Biotechnology Electric Cars Segment Opportunities For Pakistan Land Reclamation Solar / Wind Farms Environment Clean up Recyclable Materials Agri -Technologies SECTOR NEW WORLD Solid Waste Management Water Conservation Desalination and Distribution Alternative Energy Mass Transit Segment Opportunities Solar Public lighting Roof Top Solar Energy Urban Waste Recycling Disaster Mgmt. Services Micro Hydro Power Plants KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 13 Other End of the Spectrum : SME’s While the capital market can serve as funding source for large long-term projects noted above, it also has a role to play for private sector small and medium industries The stock exchanges and the SECP are finalizing the regulatory framework for SME segment at the exchanges where companies with paid-up capital of PkR 25million can list on the exchanges, as against current minimum requirement of PkR 250million To safe-guard the interest of investors, initially only “ELIGIBLE INVESTORS” would be allowed to invest in the SME segment where, “Eligible Investors’ will be defined as entities with a certain minimum liquid financial networth KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 14 Equity Investors’ Perspective – Capital Market Performance Bloomberg News, November 21, 2012 KSE 100 Index, the benchmark for Pakistan's equity market, was the top gainer among 72 markets worldwide, when adjusted for price swings in 2012, according to the BLOOMBERG RISKLESS RETURN RANKING. Over five years, Pakistan's risk- adjusted returns ranked eighth in the world. KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 15 Pakistan Market’s Sustained Outperformance Nov12-Nov13 (YoY) Jan-Nov 2013 MSCI EM Singapore MSCI EM China Thailand Russia Singapore Hong Kong Philippines India Malaysia MSCI FM Vietnam Pakistan -20% Thailand -1% -2% -2% -4% -10% Russia 0% India 0% Hong Kong 7% 7% 7% 5% 10% Philippines 19% China 20% Malaysia 23% MSCI FM 30% Vietnam 40% 50% 47% 45% 40% 34% 35% 30% 21% 25% 20% 13% 12% 15% 10% 8% 8% 10% 4% 4% 3% 5% 0% 0% Pakistan 50% 44% From Jan – Nov 2013, KSE-100 provided a return of 44% and on a twelve month basis, it returned 47% KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 16 Equity Investment: Consistently Superior Asset Class *10-Year average annual return for asset classes Ban k D epo sits 4% Govt. T-B il ls 11% Govt. PI Bs 12% Defen ce Savi ng s C erts 12% Gol d KSE-100 In dex 17% 28% *January 01, 2003 - December 31, 2012 KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 17 Our Collective Role as Finance Professionals As financial professionals (accountants, bankers, investment advisors and managers, corporate finance specialists, venture capital & private equity specialists, financial markets regulators) we have a special responsibility of thinking out-of-the-box in structuring financial transactions beyond the conventional banking boundaries We can play a crucial role in guiding our clients – both borrowers as well as investors – in how to avail the opportunities in capital markets for achieving most efficient financing and investment strategies where risks are well understood and appropriately managed If we discharge our fiduciary duty in a responsible manner, we can shorten the time-line of bringing the undocumented sector into the official economy and play our part in actualizing the enormous economic potential of Pakistan KARACHI STOCK E XCHANGE 18 "If finance is the science of goal architecture, those who work in the field are the architects who structure these goals and manage the risks of small businesses, families, school systems, cities, corporations, and all the other vital institutions throughout society. If finance is the stewardship of society's assets, it is these same people who are entrusted with the management and cultivation of those assets". Robert J. Shiller 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics Professor of Economics at Yale University THANK YOU Serving Investors & Industry Stock Exchange Building, Stock Exchange Road, Karachi-74000, Pakistan. Tel: 111-001-122 Website: www.kse.com.pk