Investors Review August 2015

Transcription

Investors Review August 2015
‫מודפס גם בעברית‬
Issue No. 126
August 2015
ESPECIALLY FOR LEUMI UK PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS
Israel Macro Economic Review
By: Yaniv Bar, Economic Department, Finance Division
What’s in ”Investor’s Review"
Israeli Macro Economic Review
World Macro
FinTech
Select Indices
Closing
value
July 31
Return
in
July %
YTD
Return
in %
TA 100
1480
4.25
14.72
TA 25
1712
3.87
16.9
DJ
Industrials
17343
0.4
-0.75
Nasdaq
Composite
5043
2.84
8.28
Nikkei 225
20725
1.73
17.96
July 31st, 2015
Editing:
Digital Dep't, Marketing Division
Email:
[email protected]
The August interest rate of the Bank of Israel will remain unchanged;
the chance for an additional rate cut in the coming months has
lessened
The Monetary Committee of the Bank of Israel (BoI) decided on July 27th
to keep its interest rate for August unchanged at 0.1%.
The underlying factors emphasized by the BoI in its August rate decision
include: (a) a certain stabilization in the inflation environment – the rate of
increase in the CPI over the past four months has been consistent with the
price stability target range (1-3%), and furthermore, the capital market
derived inflation expectations for the long-term are currently near the
center of the range; (b) continuing moderate growth of the local economy,
led by private consumption, despite the decline in export activity and
industrial production, this according to indicators on overall activity
in the economy (headed by June’s composite state-of-the-economy
index, which increased 0.4%); (c) continued risk to the global economic
recovery in light of the recent developments in China and Greece, while
simultaneously expansionary monetary policy is being continued around
the world; (d) estimates by the BoI that the US interest rate is expected to
start climbing sometime this year, although by a moderate rate; and (e)
continued heightened activity in almost all aspects of the local housing
market.
Furthermore, the decision to keep the local interest rate unchanged was
made despite the appreciation in the shekel vis-a-vis the currency basket
(primarily vis-à-vis the euro) since the last Monetary Committee meeting
at the end of June.
Further support for the decision to keep the central bank interest rate
unchanged came from the semiannual “Financial Stability Report”, which
was published on July 28th by the BoI (the day after the publication of
the interest rate decision). It is written in the report that the local financial
system is exposed to a number of substantial risks, most of which are the
result of the low interest rate environment over the long-term, headed
by: “asset price inflation” and the exposure of the financial system to
the housing market and the under pricing of risk in the corporate bond
market. These risks are actually likely to heighten as the local interest rate
is increased, which is likely to lead to shocks in the markets and to a sharp
downward correction in asset prices. The findings of this analysis also
support the decision of the BoI not to lower its interest rate at the current
time, despite the continuing trend of appreciation in the exchange rate of
the shekel vis-à-vis the currency basket, and the substantial weakness in
export activity, this so that the risks that were noted to financial stability
will not become more severe.
In light of the above, and particularly when taking into consideration
the additional information with the publication of the “Financial Stability
Report”, following the release of the interest rate decision, we estimate
that the chances for an additional interest rate reduction during the
coming months have lessened; however, it is still quite possible that other
(continuation on page 4)
An unbalanced global recovery: Large countries are improving,
emerging markets are softening
The outset of 2015 saw a rise in investor angst, fueled by
the crisis in Greece, the fall in oil prices, and differing views
over the timing of a US interest-rate hike. As the year’s third
quarter gets underway, key global economies are showing
signs of recovering at a steady, albeit moderate, pace, and we
expect the pace of growth to gradually pick up. In contrast,
emerging markets, particularly those in Asia, are currently the
main source of weakness in global demand, and most face a
host of challenges. The combination of external difficulties,
over which those countries have little control, and domestic
obstacles, imply that policies in those countries will remain
expansionary for some time to come.
United States
The world’s largest economy is improving at a stable,
consistent pace. While first quarter GDP data initially
showed the economy had contracted due to severe weather
conditions, the figures were later upwardly revised, with first
quarter growth coming in at 0.6% year on year, and second
quarter GDP rising by 2.3%. At the same time, it now appears
the Fed will shortly be raising its key policy rate. Over 80% of
economic forecasters see the initial rate hike coming by the
end of the year.
While Europe’s economy improves, the Greek economy
deteriorates
In March of this year, the European Central Bank launched a
quantitative easing program expected to total €1.1 trillion.
This unprecedented ECB support is aimed at stimulating
the eurozone’s economic recovery. In 2014, the region
managed to generate 0.8% growth, following two years
of recession. As of the end of this year’s second quarter,
the ECB’s quantitative easing program was showing signs
of success. Second quarter earnings season has surprised
to the upside: following years in which the profits of large
European corporations were flat, companies’ bottom lines
are now growing again. Economic indices are also improving,
as evidenced in improved confidence amongst companies
and households. Aggregate credit issuance has risen, and
loans issued by European banks to borrowers outside the
eurozone have expanded considerably.
At the same time, however, the Greek economy has
been losing altitude, and global investors are becoming
increasingly worried that Greece may eventually default
on its debts and pull out of the eurozone. The most recent
development in the crisis occurred in January, when the Greek
government called snap elections, which brought to power
an extreme leftwing party. Following the elections, Greece’s
creditors gave the country a four-month grace period to pay
off the loans it had received in the framework of the 2012
bailout package provided by the European Union, ECB, and
International Monetary Fund. The negotiations between
2
representatives of the EU and the Greek government were
rocky. The main point of contention was a commitment
Greece had undertaken to introduce reforms in its tax
system and to cut back pension payments, amongst other
issues. As concerns mounted, the Greek government
shuttered local banks, halted trading in the county’s stock
market, and imposed restrictions on cash withdrawals and
overseas capital transfers. On July 4, a referendum was held
in which 60% of Greek voters rejected the terms of the
creditors’ bailout program. This sent investor jitters to a high
point, and stock markets fell across the globe. In the end, on
July 13 in Brussels, following intense discussions amongst
European heads of state, the IMF’s managing director, and
all EU finance ministers, the sides reached an agreement on
an aid package, which was subsequently approved by the
various European parliaments. Trading in the Greek stock
market was resumed after a three week hiatus, and on the
first day of trading the country’s key stock index plunged
16%.
China
As part of the Chinese government’s aim of opening its
financial markets to foreign investors, those investors were
permitted to invest for the first time directly in mainland
Chinese stocks, some of which until then had been listed
on the Hong Kong stock exchange and were called H
shares. From January to May, mainland Chinese stock
indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen surged by over 100%,
while the benchmark CSI 300 index rose by around 50%.
These aggressive rallies were the result of capital inflows
and investor assessments that the government’s efforts to
stimulate China’s economy would succeed in accelerating
the rate of growth. By way of comparison, the main Hong
Kong equity index, which includes the shares of some
mainland Chinese companies, was up at its peak by only
19% during this period. In the middle of June, the market
trend reversed course and mainland Chinese shares began
plunging amidst heightened volatility. Only at the outset
of July did the markets begin settling down, thanks to
concerted intervention by the Chinese authorities, who
allowed almost two-thirds of all listed companies to suspend
trading in their shares. At the end of July, restrictions on
trading were lifted on some of those shares, leading to
volatile trading.
The economic data coming out of China indicate the current
slowdown is likely to continue over the near term. The
Market purchasing managers index, for example, indicates
that China’s manufacturing sector continues contracting.
Also, imports have fallen sharply. Based on these data points,
it appears the Chinese economy is slowing. Moreover,
investors have lost confidence in the government’s ability to
fuel sustainable improvement in the pace of growth.
ESPECIALLY FOR LEUMI PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS
Fintech - The trend that everyone in the financial
markets is talking about
By: Itai Ben-Zeev, head of Leumi’s financial markets division, and Or Klier, head of the bank’s strategy division
What is Fintech?
Financial technology (fintech) is one of the hottest fields in
the tech world in recent years.
So what is fintech? It’s the creation of ‘innovative
technologies in the financial services industry either
through the introduction of new technology based
products and services, or by the adoption of innovative
technological approaches.
The innovations fintech offers are being implemented
in all aspects of the financial services industry. “Everyday
banking” has witnessed a host of innovations, including
advanced personal financial management tools, usage
of big data to generate targeted and personalized value
propositions and value proposals, alternative savings
products, and new client interfaces. In the area of
payments and money transfers, advanced technological
tools and platforms are being developed with the aim
of enhancing speed and convenience, to simplify the
process of transferring money, and to reduce the cost of
transactions. In this field you can find high-tech giants
like Apple and Google, in addition to firms like Ripple and
Transferwise, amongst others. Credit issuance is one area
where impressive progress is being made. P2P lending and
crowdfunding have continued growing rapidly. In addition
we experience impressive developments in the creation of
digital tools that are based on advanced risk management
capabilities in the area of lending to small and midsize
businesses.
Fintech in the financial markets: What’s happening
and where are things headed?
Two seemingly opposing trends are evident in the financial
markets, driven by technological advances. The first is the
increased use of algorithmic (algo) trading of various sorts,
which offers a significant advantage in terms of speedof-response times and the ability to calculate complex
mathematical functions in real time. The second is the
wisdom the of crowd, which empowers small investors,
assisting them in making investment decisions by improving
the availability of information, and by enabling them
to monitor and follow portfolios of successful investors.
Israeli entrepreneurs have established several successful
fintech companies in this area. One is eToro, which provides
a link between the worlds of social networks with that
of investment. TipRanks is another, which in addition to
aggregating stock recommendations of various analysts,
the company provides investors with information about
the quality of the analysts’ recommendations based on
their past performance regarding specific stock. Over the
PRIVATE BANKING Issue No. 126
August 2015
past year, Bank Leumi has successfully integrated TipRanks
solutions for the benefit of our clients.
More and more tools to improve the advisory services
of the bank are being introduced. Leveraging big data,
these solutions are highly significant, enabling advisors to
identify phases and turning points in clients’ lives, creating
order amidst the ocean of financial market information,
and offering investments tailored to clients’ personal
preferential needs.
In addition to these innovative tools aimed at enhancing
the work of financial advisors, automatic advisory tools are
being offered directly to clients with the aim of providing
simple, basic alternative to a financial advisor. Companies
such as Betterment and Wealthfront create services that
are designed mainly to automatically advise clients with a
relatively low level of savings. These companies offer tools
that provide fast, simple, solution and easy to understand
ways to customize the investment portfolios based on
the clients’ personal preferences under the guidance of a
digital investment advisor.
Over the past year, we’ve been following the impressive
activities around fintech developments at Fidelity,
the American financial services giant. As part of a
clear digital strategy focused on client needs and the
company’s knowledge of markets, Fidelity, which in the
past used to develop technologies almost entirely on its
own, established innovation labs and center aimed at
examining and experimenting with innovative external
services and products from the fintech industry. Fidelity
has acquired and integrated fintech startups designed to
provide advisory services and automatic digital trading,
in addition to developing apps for mobile, wearable
watches and layered-reality glasses (i.e., glasses that
simulate reality). Fidelity also launched financial education
initiatives, amongst other developments. But Fidelity isn’t
alone in its openness to innovation. Other financial-service
companies, worldwide, have expanded their operations
in these areas, actively testing and integrating innovative
tools, as well as linking up with players in the fast-growing
fintech industry. Financial markets by their very nature are
dynamic and prone to change. Technological innovation
is never-ending and can be expected to find new ways of
becoming more flexible and developing further in coming
years. Opportunities may exist in such areas as the analysis
of investor behavior, garnering insights from the wisdom
of the crowd, leveraging data, and even utilizing elements
of gaming (gamification). Taken together, all these
developments may even end up impacting the behavior
of the financial markets themselves.
3
(continuation from page 1)
LEUMI PRIVATE BANKING
CENTERS IN ISRAEL
monetary expansionary steps will be taken, among them being monetary
easing (via the foreign exchange market and not via the bond market). The
underlying conditions for any such move to occur are likely to include an
additional appreciation in the shekel vis-à-vis the currency basket; a decline in
the inflation environment to a rate that deviates from the target range; and a
lack of any tangible improvement in local economic activity (in particular in
light of the weakness in exports).
Over the longer-term, a change in the trend and a hike in the Israeli interest rate
are dependent also on the path of US interest rates – as long as a rate hike is
delayed in the US, then a delay in a change in the trend in local Israeli rates can
also be expected. In any event, the path of the interest rate hike, whenever it
begins, is expected to be moderate (moderate rates of increase) and gradual in
the coming years.
PRIVATE BANKING FOR ISRAELI RESIDENTS
The composite state-of-the-economy index: no improvement in economic
activity and with a bias towards import-based private consumption, and
weakness in most other areas of activity
The composite state-of-the-economy index increased 0.4% in June, compared
to the preceding month. June’s figure reflects a high rate of growth compared
to the average monthly growth rate in recent years. Looking over the longer
term, this index increased 3.7% in June this year compared to June last year (the
highest growth rate since June 2012), which strengthens our estimate that the
growth rate of the business sector has returned to a level of around 3%, similar
to the rates of growth prevalent up until the beginning of 2014.
The main factors that contributed to the increase in June’s composite index include:
the import of consumption goods, the import of manufacturing inputs, and the
revenue of trade activities. On the other hand, the main factors that offset the
growth rate of the composite index include: goods exports, which declined 5%
compared to the preceding month and by a cumulative rate of 20% since the
beginning of the year; industrial production; and the revenue of services activities.
It is worthwhile to emphasize that the increase in the composite index in June
was supported primarily by an increase in import factors, which do not account
for a portion of total economic production (local), whereas in the indices on
real activity declines were registered. The increase in the index does not reflect
an improvement in overall economic activity, and in particular there is a strong
degree of inconsistency in the composition of activity, with a bias towards
private consumption, which is based on imports, and weakness in most other
areas of activity.
An analysis of the quarterly data shows that in the second quarter of this year
the composite index indeed increased by a rate above the quarterly average
from the last three years; however, the rate is slightly below that from the
preceding quarter (3.6% compared to 3.8%, in annualized terms). Therefore, it
can be expected that the national accounts data for the second quarter, which
will be published in August, will indicate continued moderate growth (possibly
at a rate below that of, or similar, to that from the preceding quarter) in business
sector activity.
In this regard, we note that also during the third quarter a moderate increase
is expected in the economic activity of the business sector, led by the services
and construction sectors, as can be seen in the most current companies’ survey
of the Bank of Israel (BoI). This is alongside continued weakness in the industrial
and the accommodations sectors, in which a main part of activity is directed
towards overseas demand, and consequently these activities are more sensitive
to external shocks and to changes in the exchange rate.
Local manufacturers are expecting a sharp decline in export orders, together
with a more moderate decline in sales to the local market. Local hotels are
also expecting a continued decline in reservations from overseas tourists in the
coming quarter, in light of the moderation in the trend of recovery in tourist
entries and in overnight hotel stays by foreigners.
In summary, the data does not indicate a tangible improvement in local economic
activity in the second quarter of the year (and also not in the expectations for
the third quarter of 2015), but instead primarily indicate an increase in import
activity, which occurred against the backdrop of an expansion in private
consumption influenced by, among other things, the continuing appreciation
of the shekel vis-à-vis the currency basket.
4
ESPECIALLY FOR LEUMI PRIVATE BANKING CLIENTS
TEL AVIV - Tel: 972-76-8668699
HAIFA - Tel: 972-76-8668599
Horev Private Banking, Tel: 972-76-8671511
Rehovot - Private Banking - Tel 972-76-8679911
HERZLIYA - Tel: 972-76-8668899
JERUSALEM - Tel: 972-76-8678066
PRIVATE BANKING FOR FOREIGN RESIDENTS
TEL AVIV - Tel: 076-866-0600, 076-867-1899
JERUSALEM - Tel: 972-76-8678066
Disclaimer: The contents of this review, including
the data, information, estimations, opinions and
forecasts (the "Information") was prepared in
reliance upon general information known to the
public and / or information received, wholly or
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and is provided solely as general information. The
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4
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