English - Testberichte im AutoScout24 Magazin

THE CARS WE WANT
TOMORROW
by AutoScout24
2012
What Europeans want from their cars of tomorrow
www.carswewanttomorrow.com
© Daimler AG,BMW Group, Peugeot
Contents
Foreword ..................................................................................................
3
I Automobility of tomorrow ........................................................ 4
1 What people expect of the cars of tomorrow ............... 4
2 What will move us tomorrow ............................................... 8
2.1 Individual mobility .......................................................................... 8
2.2 Urban mobility ................................................................................. 10
3 Alternative drives ..................................................................... 11
3.1Range ................................................................................................ 11
3.2 Quiet drives ...................................................................................... 12
3.3 Infrastructure costs .......................................................................... 13
II The cars of tomorrow .................................................................. 14
1 The cars of tomorrow and what they can do ................ 14
1.1 Safety functions ............................................................................... 14
1.2 Driver assistance functions ............................................................. 15
1.3 Entertainment and information functions ..................................... 16
2 Driving on auto ......................................................................... 18
3Design ........................................................................................... 20
4 Automobility and demographic change ........................ 22
III Conclusions ....................................................................................... 23
On Thomas Weiss and AutoScout24 Magazine .................. 23
On the study design ....................................................................... 24
2
Foreword
What do people expect of the cars of tomorrow?
AutoScout24 looked into this question in a large
international survey of 8,800 Europeans. Today,
we are on the threshold of a new era in individual mobility: the first electric cars are already
appearing on European roads, and internal combustion engines now have to measure themselves
above all by how economical they are on valuable
fuel and how little CO2 they emit. At the same
time, more and more new digital assistants are
coming into series production. From safety features through to purely entertainment functions,
the cars of tomorrow could have a lot to offer –
and it will change driving and the car experience.
On the road to the new mobility, it’s consumers who
will be deciding which way we go: so Auto­Scout24
has, with the help of the market research institute
“Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung” (GfK), surveyed
people in seven countries in Europe to see what
they expect of their vehicles. We asked them how
they see mobility in 25 years’ time – and quite deliberately not what they think can be done today.
The aim was to find out what people want – findings
which will be of interest to AutoScout24 as Europe’s
largest online used car market, as well as to the
industry as a whole.
If there is one key finding from the study that is encouraging: The overwhelming majority of Eurpeans
believe the cars of tomorrow will have a positive
influence on their quality of life. Our respondents
know quite well what they expect of the cars of the
future. That could provide useful guidance for an
industry in upheaval.
I wish you exciting, inspiring reading.
Alberto Sanz de Lama,
Managing Director AutoScout24
3
I Automobility of tomorrow
© Daimler AG
1 What people expect of the cars of tomorrow
Cars are under pressure to change: energy is
becoming even more expensive, oil reserves are
shrinking and people are becoming increasingly
environmentally conscious, so alternative power
sources are therefore required. Continuing urbanization demands new mobility solutions.
What do Europeans expect of the cars of tomorrow
now, specifically?
At the same time, new information technology is
making totally new mobility concepts possible:
travelers of the future will be able to choose and
book the method of mobility that suits their needs
best, as they are already underway.
What will the mobility of tomorrow look like, and
where will the car fit into this? Many people have
forecast how the future will look, but in the final
instance, it is consumers who will decide. Our study
“The Cars We Want Tomorrow” shows that, although
different people want different things, there is still
a consensus across national borders and sociodemographic categories: Europeans want the cars of
the future to be safe, cost-effective to use, sustainable and comfortable. For all the differences, that is
something they all have in common.
Safety and cost-effective mobility are what matter to Europeans
most.
What Europeans are most concerned about is safety
(93 percent). Whether young or old, male or female,
whether Belgian or German, what our respondents
expect of the cars of the future is that they should be
as safe as they can be. That is also evident from the
functions they wanted in their cars (see chapter II.1
for more details).
4
“Compromising on safety is something car drivers
in Europe won‘t accept: this is something on which
the Austrians, the Germans, the French and everyone
else agree. What is interesting is the conflict between
cost-effective and environmentally friendly mobility.
Switching from conventional drives to low CO2 and
pollutant-free emissions could be speeded up by the
peak oil scenario: as gasoline and diesel prices will
rise, particularly in the medium term, alternative
drives that are still more expensive are becoming
more interesting. Industry and politicians are being
called on to support the alternatives to make environmentally friendly mobility affordable.”
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
Key: ‚1‘ = top priority, ‚7‘ = the lowest priority (based on „I completely agree“ and „I somewhat agree“). The clear result: for
Europe, safety is the number-one priority.
Consumers in Europe have faced soaring energy
costs in recent years. This has clearly made them
much more aware of what mobility costs. 89 percent
expect the cars of the future to offer cost-effective
mobility. Even for 87 percent of those with a personal net monthly income in excess of €2,500 this
is a key factor. This means that high development
costs on alternative drive technologies, for example, are something the manufacturers are not going
to be able to pass easily on to consumers, unless
they can make up for them by cutting maintenance
costs noticeably.
However, Europeans are quite ready to invest in alternative mobility strategies: most participants in
the study say the costs of setting up a close-knit
power or hydrogen supply system should be funded
out of taxes or by those who use alternative drives
(see chapter I.3).
Being sustainable and good for the environment
is important to Europeans: this is what 86 percent
want cars of the future to be. To 58 percent of them,
these issues are very important. It turns out the
Austrians are particularly environmentally aware:
they see sustainability as more important than
cost-effective mobility. The Germans, on the other
hand, think it more important that cars should be
affordable than environmentally friendly. Taken as
a whole, environmental friendliness matters more
to women than to men (88 percent as opposed to
83 percent). And the higher the level of education,
the more relevant sustainability becomes.
5
ventional internal combustion engines, especially
gasoline ones, still offer some development potential in terms of energy efficiency, but this can only
be done with high development costs. If they are
to have a future, synthetic fuel is going to be needed on an industrial scale. We’re not there (yet).“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief, AutoScout24 Magazine
Academics in particular are really keen on being environmentally friendly.
Hence, a policy that would push the car industry in
this direction has the support of much of the European population. In the medium term, awareness
of energy costs will act as an additional catalyzer in
developing more energy-efficient vehicles.
“The automotive industry is facing massive challenges: the European car market is set to shrink
in the medium term and even growth in China
is set to slow down. But electric vehicles are still
waiting for people to switch energy sources. Con-
As well as safety, affordable mobility and sustainability, what those we asked want of the cars of the
future is to be comfortable: 89 percent said traveling in comfort was important to them, about 52
percent even said it was extremely important. And
79 percent wanted their cars to be above all practical, that is, as versatile and universally viable as
possible. This was less relevant to younger people
aged 18-29 (73 percent), but particularly important
to women (82 percent). In comparative European
terms, it is the Austrians who are most concerned
about practicality (87 percent); least concerned are
the Dutch (72 percent).
Women above all want the cars of the future to be as versatile as possible.
© Opel
6
If practicality is important, driving pleasure is, too:
75 percent of those we asked said it was important.
One in six Europeans even think it so important, they
would rather not have an autopilot, because they are
afraid it will take the fun out of driving (for more see
chapter II.2). And women like driving just as much
as men do: the difference is marginal (74 percent of
women, 76 percent of men). Comparing countries,
the Belgians and Italians are particularly demanding here (81 percent and 79 percent). The Germans
are back in the pack somewhere, at 74 percent. The
Austrians are not that bothered: just 61 percent think
it is important.
Looking at the age structure, we find older people
aged 60-65 think it does not matter very much
(25 percent), but 43 percent of 18-29-year-olds
want the cars of tomorrow to reflect their lifestyles.
“Driving will not simply be a rational affair in
future: but driving pleasure doesn’t just mean
speed: it also means driving out in the country,
with the roof down, in comfort or just in a world of
your own. And pure electric cars can also be fun.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief, AutoScout24 Magazine
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief, AutoScout24 Magazine
The car is not a status symbol anymore – that is the
prevailing opinion in many scenarios about the future
of mobility. And this study, once again, shows people
are less worried about how their cars make them see
themselves: just 35 percent of Europeans see this as
relevant – it comes in last in the list of priorities in all
countries. Italy (44 percent) and Spain (39 percent) at
most still see the cars of the future as a sign of their
social status.
Young people in particular see the cars of tomorrow as status
symbols and expressions of their lifestyles.
“Talking about a rebirth of the car as a status
symbol would be going too far: nor does this
contradict the picture that young people are less
emotionally bound to the cars of today. On the
other hand, you can take these figures to mean
that they wish the cars of the future to be built
closer to their ideas once again and to offer them
something they can identify with.“
Safe, affordable, comfortable and good for the environment: Europeans expect a lot of their cars of
tomorrow. At the same time, however, a very large
majority of them believe the car industry will give
them what they want: 92 percent believe the cars
of tomorrow will have a favorable effect on their
quality of life.
Europeans are very optimistic about how the cars of tomorrow
will affect their quality of life.
“European car drivers are a long way from seeing the car as a bogeyman. Quite the opposite:
the overwhelming majority of drivers expect the
cars of the future to be good for their quality
of life. This should be a stimulus for an industry
facing fundamental changes: it should spur it on
to give unconventional ideas more space when it
comes to development.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief, AutoScout24 Magazine
7
© Daimler AG
2 What will move us tomorrow
Cars have developed constantly since they were
first invented over 125 years ago. They are now
safer, faster and more comfortable. But, as the
number of cars on the road grows, so have the
challenges: long traffic jams and urban gridlocks
are annoying. It is almost as if the freedom of
individual mobility is contradicted by the search
for a parking space. And this is where new technologies open up new opportunities – the mobile
Internet alone makes it easier to use car-sharing
products flexibly. What do Europeans want from
the mobility of tomorrow?
2.1 Individual mobility
Many carmakers have already moved into the carsharing business – are these the first steps on the
road from carmaker to mobility service provider?
At any rate, they are trying to anticipate changing
consumer desires and profit from the growing love
of the time-share car.
Most people still want to own a car that is as versatile as possible.
One in three of the Europeans we asked could imagine using car-sharing in future. This breaks down
as follows: 23 percent prefer a model which combines owning their own car with car-sharing. A city
dweller, for example, might own a city car, but rent
the right model for longer journeys or big shopping
trips when it suits him/her. Seven percent could even
imagine not having their own car at all, just using
car-sharing.
8
Almost two-thirds of those surveyed (64 percent)
would still like to have their own car that meets
as many of their mobility needs as possible. Carsharing is irrelevant as far as they are concerned.
This desire is particularly marked among young
people: 67 percent of those aged 18 to 29 and
68 percent of those aged 30 to 39 would like to have
an all-round car. Amongst the 50-59-year-olds, the
figure is 58 percent, and amongst the 60-65-yearolds 59 percent. The Spaniards want an all-purpose
car of their own most (70 percent), the Dutch least
(58 percent). More Austrians could do without a car
completely than anyone else (13 percent), and the
French least so (5 percent).
“One-third of car drivers already think an allround car is not that important anymore, they
can imagine renting a specific car or booking a
car share if they need to. This trend will probably
increase in population centers in future if only
zero-emissions cars are allowed downtown. Then
small electric cars will suddenly get interesting,
and people will rent a station wagon for their
vacations – or vice versa.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief, AutoScout24 Magazine
9
© Audi AG
2.2 Urban mobility
Even now, the infrastructure in many European
metropoles is coming up against its limits: urban
gridlock eats up time, money and energy. The urban mobility of the future will have to take the
stress off people and the environment.
pose. 28 percent of those surveyed preferred this
scenario, it being more popular amongst city dwellers than those who live in the country (31 percent
and 26 percent respectively).
36 percent of respondents wanted things to stay
the way they are: they think any vehicle should
be able to drive downtown. Younger respondents
were particularly in favor of this: 42 percent of
18-29-year olds, compared with just 28 percent
of 60-65s.
Europeans are open to new ideas when it comes to the urban
mobility of tomorrow.
One possible scenario would be that people are not allowed to enter the city center with their vehicles. Mobility in this area would then be assured by a comprehensive, dense network of public transport, with a park
and ride facility as well as load terminals at its edge.
36 percent of respondents are in favor of this scenario.
Equally, downtown areas could conceivably only be
used by vehicles provided specifically for the pur-
“It is precisely in metropolitan areas where it
is becoming increasingly important to network
many different mobility solutions sensibly. Local
public transport, electric bikes, cars via carsharing, current traffic conditions and route
planning in our own cars, the nearest taxi, and
bus timetables will come together via smartphones in future. Each and every one of these
now has its own app, and the first integrated
solutions are already being tested.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief, AutoScout24 Magazine
10
© Daimler AG
3 Alternative drives
Alternative drives are one answer to finite fossil
fuels; but they are also a response to the need for
more sustainable, environmentally friendly mobility which is what 86 percent of those involved
in this study expect from the cars of the future.
They are clear what they want from alternative
drives, though.
3.1 Range
Sustainability, yes, but make it practical, please:
that is how we could summarize the response when
people were asked what the minimum acceptable
range for the cars of the future was. The current
range of battery-powered cars available on the
market right now does not meet these expectations:
a range of 250 km would just about cover the requirements of 29 percent of consumers – so there is
some work to be done here. A range of at least 500
km would satisfy the needs of around two thirds of
Europeans, however (63 percent).
The minimum range most people said they wanted was 500 km;
but one in five would not be satisfied with even a range of
800 km.
Looking at the numbers shows how important this
issue is: even those for whom protecting the environment and being sustainable is very important
would not accept any significantly lower range.
Here, too, just 30 percent (as against 29 percent)
11
would accept a minimum range of 250 km. City
dwellers are much the same: once again, just 31
percent said they would be happy with a range of
250 km.
Most of those surveyed welcome quieter drives; but a third sees
safety risks.
A range of over 250 km matters almost as much to city dwellers
as it does to those who live in the country.
“Battery-electric vehicles or BEVs are currently
designed mainly for use in cities: they’re small,
quiet and locally emissions-free: the only allround electric cars that can stand up right now
are plug-in hybrids and those with range extenders. There are three technologies that will need to
solve the range problem with zero-CO2 emissions
driving in future: hydrogen for fuel cells, induction loops in roads for electric cars with very
small batteries and synthetic fuels for internal
combustion engines.“
This only applies to a fraction of those surveyed (7
percent). Most welcome quiet drive systems (52 percent). People living in the city in particular hope it
will bring some relief from the noise of road traffic.
On the other hand, one-third of respondents
(33 percent) thought pedestrians and other road
users might not hear quiet vehicles in time, so they
could present risks.
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
Quieter drives are relevant mainly to city dwellers.
3.2 Quiet drives
Range is not the only factor in which alternative
drives differ from internal combustion engines
– for the time being, anyway. They also mark a
break with learned associations. The sound of
the internal combustion engine could soon be a
thing of the past. Electric vehicles are virtually
silent; the only thing you can hear is the sound
of the tires on the road and a slight hum at high
speeds. Is the sound of combustion something
Europeans will miss?
“Noise as a stress factor is something people still
don’t take seriously enough, so quieter vehicles
are a step forward to start with. Electric vehicles
are not completely silent in use, though: wind
and road noise increases with higher speed, just
as with conventional cars. Humming electric cars
are something we will get used to in future, and
think as little of as quiet bikes.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
12
3.3 Infrastructure costs
Whichever alternative drives come out on top, the
change will not work unless we invest in new energy
infrastructure. 36 percent of Europeans think the
More than one in three Europeans think the infrastructure costs
alternative mobility involves should be funded out of tax.
taxpayer should pay for this – it benefits society as
a whole, after all. This attitude is particularly widespread in the higher income groups: 40 percent of
Europeans earning more than €2,500 net a month
would welcome a tax-funded model. On a national
basis, the Italians (45 percent) and Austrians (41
percent) are particularly in favor, while the French
(27 percent) and Belgians (29 percent) like the idea
least. Germany and Spain are average in European
terms (36 percent and 37 percent respectively), followed closely by the Dutch (34 percent).
A similar number of Europeans like the idea of a
funding system in which those who use alternative
drives pay the infrastructure costs, either via direct
duties (21 percent) or indirectly via the utility companies who would pass those costs on to users (16
percent). A kind of education tax, whereby those
who are against alternative drives would pay, is favored by 20 percent of those surveyed. This funding
strategy is most popular in Austria (28 percent), but
also in Italy and Germany (21 percent each). In the
Netherlands and Belgium this number is lower (13
percent and 16 percent respectively).
“Investing in the necessary infrastructure is something society has to do as a whole: oil is running
out, and we need alternatives. Electromobility
only makes sense if it goes hand in hand with
an energy switch based largely on CO2-neutral
sources. As well as the technology itself, we also
need to create incentives to make alternatives
attractive. Cities could have city tolls, networking
local public transport with individual mobility,
separate lanes and parking spaces for electric
cars. Or, putting it another way, conventional cars
could become more expensive to run, and some
of the investment comes via them. Switching
mobility for free isn’t going to happen.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
© BMW Group
13
II The cars of tomorrow
© Peugeot
1 The cars of tomorrow and what they can do
Which functionalities should the vehicles of the
future provide in the opinion of the Europeans?
What can they do without, on the other hand?
Keeping in mind the high cost-sensitivity of the
customers, this is a critical question (see chapter
I.1). The functions AutoScout24 asked about can
be divided roughly into three different priority
groups.
1.1 Safety functions
Safety-critical functions are particularly high priority: 82 percent of Europeans want the cars of
tomorrow to scan what is happening around them,
detect potential hazards and, if necessary, intervene actively to avoid accidents. This is particularly
important to Europeans aged 40-65, 85 percent of
whom want this. The figure amongst 18-29-yearolds is 76 percent.
Accordingly, most Europeans should welcome the
fact that the e-call will be mandatory in new cars in
the EU from 2015. If an accident happens, it sends
out an emergency alarm automatically and communicates the main details involved, such as when and
where the accident happened. It could also send additional information, such as the nature of the accident and the number of passengers on board. 80
percent expect this of the cars of the future.
Some things are essential, others optional: when it comes to
what the cars of tomorrow can do, safety is right out in front.
Another major step towards safer driving as far as
Europeans are concerned is car-to-x communication: around three-quarters (74 percent) think that
this technology makes sense. Car-to-x communication allows vehicles to communicate with other
road users and the infrastructure around them and
14
thereby notice impending hazards early on. More
people in the cities want this than in the country
(77 percent and 69 percent respectively), so the
need for help would probably be mainly in dense
urban traffic.
”Today’s assistance systems are the forerunners
of independent driving: they don’t offer everyone
clear benefits, taken individually, but taken
together, they mean you can keep to the right
speed for the traffic, change lanes with assistance, get help with steering, emergency braking systems and cameras which are essential for
autonomous driving, in cities or in heavy traffic
on the motorways. The last two modules here are
cars exchanging data with one another and with
the world around them. The manufacturers are
already working on the prototypes and standards that are required.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
1.2 Driver assistance functions
Functions that assist drivers but are not primarily
safety-oriented can be classified as priority two:
this includes such things as intelligent networked
traffic control systems designed to stop traffic jams
forming to start with. This is something 78 percent
of European car drivers want, making it almost as
important to them as technology to increase safety.
71 percent of those surveyed would like their cars
to give them traffic and route information in real
time: it is mainly men who are interested here, at
75 percent, as against 66 percent of women. The
cars of tomorrow should further recognize their
drivers personally and remember their favorite settings, such as seat position, steering wheel adjustment and music automatically, or so 71 percent of
those surveyed thought.
Never having to find somewhere to park on your
own again – that’s something around two-thirds of
our survey respondents said they would like (64 percent). They dream of their cars being able to find a
parking space and park there themselves. Contrary
to the clichés, though, it is not just women who want
this: there is no difference between the sexes, in
fact. City dwellers, however, want this rather more
than their country cousins (67 percent as against
60 percent).
“Cars will be able to learn a lot from today’s
smartphones in future, too: even now, your cell
phone is better at telling you about tailbacks
in real time than the latest satellite navigation
system. And the route planning or searching for
a parking space works. So the car industry is
urging Google and Apple increasingly to switch
more and more services and functions like voice
control or music collections from smartphones
to cars. This development also has the advantage that it doesn’t depend on carmakers long
development cycles.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
A parking space-saving function was much less important to those surveyed than assistance systems:
just 49 percent said they could get used to the idea
of their car folding up to park to save space in future. Women are more enthusiastic than men about
this idea (52 percent as against 45 percent) and city
dwellers more than country livers.
City dwellers seem to be used to suffering when it comes to
looking for somewhere to park. More of them would like cars
that fold up to save space.
Helping look for somewhere to park is not the only
thing cars of the future could do: they could also
communicate independently with workshops, the
authorities and insurers. If your car finds it has a
problem, it could directly inform your garage; and
insurers could offer particularly favorable rates for
cars which are not driven often, or for drivers who
15
are obviously driving carefully. That sounds userfriendly, and is something more than half the Europeans would like (55 percent). Different countries
vary considerably here, however: while the Spanish
and Italians are particularly open to this idea (74
percent and 73 percent respectively, the Germans
(40 percent), Belgians (40 percent), Austrians (41
percent) and Dutch (42 percent) are not so bothered. The French are somewhere in the middle, with
51 percent.
When it comes to cars communicating with insurers, garages
and the authorities of their own accord, Europeans are divided.
“Many car drivers are skeptical about the idea
of having a black box in their cars that saves
all the relevant data and can be read off if an
accident happens; but insurers could entice them
here with particularly favorable policies, and
innocent parties could find out how this could
help them if they have to make claims. If the
benefits convince them, they’ll accept a black
box, too; but driving with Big Brother watching
you, reporting your speed to the nearest police
precinct automatically, will thankfully remain a
bad dream.“
1.3 Entertainment and information functions
The cars of tomorrow will be able to do much more
than assist drivers and make driving safer. As we
now have a nationwide broadband mobile network
system, it can offer a wide range of information
and entertainment functions, from accessing video
and music databases through local information
services through to videoconferencing. Most Europeans don’t think these functions are so important,
though.
Fast Internet access even in your car, via a WLAN
hotspot for external units or your on board computer itself is something 47 percent of our respondents would like. Amongst those earning more than
€2,500 a month, the figure is 54 percent. Men drivers are more interested than women (51 percent
compared to 43 percent), city dwellers more than
country folk (52 percent to 40 percent). Different
countries think differently: 62 percent of the Spanish, 58 percent of Italians and 42 percent of the
French would be interested in having this in their
cars; the Belgians are much less interested (28 percent), the Germans (39 percent), Dutch (37 percent)
and Austrians (36 percent) rather more.
The Spanish and Italians in particular would be keen to have
Internet access in their cars.
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
16
Half of those surveyed (50 percent) said they would
like to be able to stream films into their cars in
future. What comes as no surprise is that parents
with children under 15 are particularly keen on this:
59 percent of them would like entertainment facilities, while in those without children of that age it
was just 45 percent – an attractive option for family
cars, then.
47 percent of those surveyed said they would like
their cars to be their private digital assistants in
Around one-half of urban residents would be open to the idea
of local information services.
future, giving them relevant information about
their surroundings, like recommending a restaurant
and booking a table there. For the urban population, this is more enticing than for people in country areas (49 percent : 40 percent).
Just under a third (31 percent) of Europeans would
like to be able to use their cars as their offices on
the move, which calls for a communications infrastructure and passenger compartment design to
match. High earners were particularly keen on this
function in the future (38 percent of those surveyed
earning more than €2,500 a month net).
“The mobile office or living room is a reality here
and now, thanks to tablet computers and broadband mobile. For drivers who can’t do without
their e-mails anywhere, the message still is: keep
your eyes on the road, until your car can drive
itself, at least.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
© Audi
17
© Audi
2 Driving on auto
Autopilots have not reached the series production
stage yet, but manufacturers, suppliers and IT
companies are already working on taking driving
out of the hands of the driver. But is this something Europeans even want, though?
One-third of those surveyed said they didn not want an autopilot.
Two-thirds of those surveyed are quite open to the
idea. Of these two thirds, most (40 percent) would
like to choose whether to use their autopilot or not,
14 percent would use it all the time. Another 11
percent would switch to autopilot if it saved them
money, such as on insurance or fuel consumption.
Around one-third of Europeans do not want an
autopilot, though. They fall into two groups: those
who want to drive themselves because it‘s fun (18
percent) and those who do not trust technology
(16 percent).
Most skeptics are not categorically against autopilots, however: 33 percent would change their
mind if this made driving safer, and 31 percent
would be convinced if driving on autopilot was
shown to save energy, by lining up in convoys on
the motorway, for example. Should the autopilot
reach the stage where the driver can forget about
driving completely one day, that would be an
argument for another 11 percent.
The most open-minded about autopilots are the Austrians (78 percent) and the Spanish (76 percent). The
18
Austrians (59 percent), Germans and Spanish (44
percent) think what matters most is being able to
choose whether they want to use it or not; and city
Respondents could change their minds, especially if it was
shown to be much safer.
dwellers are more positive about autopilots than
country dwellers (69 percent as against 63 percent).
“There are a number of benefits to driving on autopilot: in cities, this makes traffic much easier
to manage properly, it cuts emissions while
allowing more traffic without needing more
traffic space. Out on the motorway, for example,
driving on autopilot in convoys uses less gas and
frees up time drivers can use for other things.
If driving isn‘t fun anymore, that is where the
autopilot comes in.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
19
© Peugeot
3 Design
What Europeans want above all in the future is
smooth, elegant design: 63 percent want the cars
of the future to have cool forms and clear lines,
while just 38 percent want them to be warm and
curvaceous.1
These preferences have nothing to do with gender:
both men and women prefer more neutral lines
(men 61 percent to 40 percent, women 63 percent
to 37 percent). Design taste seems to be more a
question of age: younger respondents tended to
like curves more: 42 percent of 18-39s, compared
with 36 percent of 50-59s and just 26 percent of
60-65s.
Just one-third of Europeans would accept radical
design changes.
Over half those surveyed (54 percent) would rather
play it safe: if it was up to them, things would stay
the way they are, with hood, radiator, two headlamps and four wheels. Around one-third of respondents were open to radical design changes (34
percent): they would be happy to see the cars of
tomorrow looking like balls or dice, or even with
three wheels.
We found above-average acceptance amongst
men (37 percent), city dwellers (38 percent) and
academics (41 percent). In comparative European
terms, Italians (42 percent) and Spaniards (39 percent) were particularly open to new design innovations, while the Dutch and Belgians (27 percent
each) and Germans (28 percent) were less happy
about experimenting.
1 This contrast may add up to more than 100 percent,
as more than one answer was possible.
© Corbis
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”Electric cars will be drivers for totally new design experiments: small electric motors and flexible movable batteries give designers more room
when it comes to designing cars. Unlike with
the classic three-box design (hood, passenger
compartment, trunk), cars can now be designed
around their passengers. Cars will still be statements, and convey them via their design; but the
statement will be different in the future – if only
because they won’t need a radiator anymore, let
alone a massive one.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
Most of those surveyed were prepared to compromise on design in favor of alternative drive systems:
59 percent thought that what cars run on will matter much more than what they look like.
This is one point on which men and women agree.
Taken as a whole, academics (64 percent) and the
Function matters more than form: if new power
sources change design – like solar cells on the roof
here, for example – most of those surveyed would
accept that.
© Peugeot
urban population (63 percent) are more open to
changes dictated by technology. Respondents for
whom sustainability is very important think function matters more than form (69 percent). Buyers
in this group are particularly open to alternative
drive cars and give industry a free hand most when
designing them.
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4 Automobility and demographic change
Europe is getting older – and its car drivers with
it: so the car industry is seeing cars being senior-friendly as increasingly important. Easier to
get into, easy to use – even now, manufacturers
run trials ahead of launching a new model,
testing what matters to this customer group.
AutoScout24’s study shows people in Europe want
cars that are tailored specifically to the needs of
older drivers. Three-quarters of respondents (76
percent) were for this, in particular the older
ones.
“There will be even more older people driving
in future than there are now. They may offer a rich market for the car industry, but no
one much wants to use them in advertising.
The manufacturers’ marketing talks a different
language from their products: because cars for
older people are already available and popular,
but not perceived as such. SUVs and vans are
becoming increasingly popular, even amongst
smaller vehicles, and being easy to get into and
out of and having a clear line of sight makes
them popular with older drivers in particular.
Four-wheel drive is becoming increasingly unimportant in SUVs: so the cars of tomorrow will
be comfortable companions that are above all
easier to use. Systems to help park, change
lanes safely and brake in an emergency will
become increasingly standard, because it’s not
just older people they benefit.“
Older respondents in particular think designing cars specifically
to meet the needs of older people matters.
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
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III Conclusions
“The car industry is not just in upheaval, it
also faces some major challenges. As well as
alternative drives like hybrid and electric cars,
current developments also involve making designer fuels, networking cars with one another
and their environment and driving on autopilot.
Carmakers will have new players to contend
with in the mobility market of the future, while
at the same time depending on the advent of
a future-proof energy switch. And the car market in Europe is shrinking in the medium term,
whole growth in the new boom markets of Asia
is tailing off.
Either way, mobility means challenges to companies: fossil fuel prices are rising, conurbations
are growing. So our cars of tomorrow will need
to be different from what they were in the past.
Electric cars can be designed more freely, cars
will become personalizable accessories networked with their drivers via the Internet, while
at the same time meeting customers‘ basic
needs – being completly safe, environmentally
friendly and cost-effective above all.
Internet businesses are translating the ideas of
the social Web into the mobility of tomorrow.
Networking all conceivable vehicles, from buses
and trains to electric bikes and cars, will change
the way consumers behave permanently. Even if
it‘s not clear whether the cars of tomorrow will
have batteries, range extenders or fuel cells,
one thing is certain: they will be networked.
There is one important thing our representative
study of 8,800 Europeans found: the cars of tomorrow will make our lives better. That‘s what
drivers expect, and what industry and politicians have to give them. The cars of tomorrow
are no longer climate-killers, but part of a mobile society in which sustainability is more important than ever when choosing a car.“
Thomas Weiss, Editor-in-Chief AutoScout24 Magazine
Thomas Weiss is a car expert at AutoScout24 and Editor-in-Chief
of AutoScout24 Magazine. Since 2001, AutoScout24‘s editorial team
has been bringing its readers current information on the car: reporting innovations and advising people, providing tips on used cars
and test reports on new and used cars. AutoScout24 Magazine has
more than two million users throughout Europe. AutoScout24‘s editorial team sees itself as a link between its readers and the car industry, and aims to make car buyers as well-informed as possible.
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On the study design
AutoScout24 hired Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung GfK, who surveyed 8,844 people aged 18-65 in seven
European countries (Austria: 1,003, Belgium: 1,000, France: 1,461, Germany: 1,450, Italy: 1,467, the
Netherlands: 1,004 and Spain: 1,459). Interviews were conducted as computer-assisted Web interviews
(CAWI) between April 12 and May 17, 2012.
© BMW Group
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AutoScout24 GmbH
Dingolfinger Str. 1-15
81673 Munich
Germany
[email protected]
www.autoscout24.de
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