2014 FB preseason newsletter
Transcription
2014 FB preseason newsletter
Volume 29, Issue 1 August 3-28, 2014 Exclusive NFL & College Preseason Preview! LOCK AND LOAD, BABY2014 FOOTBALL IS HERE! 94% AWESOME ANGLE INSIDE! • Tremendous NFL Preseason Trends • 2014 College and NFL Top 10 ATS Teams • NFL Preseason QB Rotations • Best Bets and Key Plays • NFL Preseason Over / Unders • 2014 NFL Preseason Schedule GET SMART GET PLAYBOOK GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLE COPYRIGHT NOTICE - All materials in this newsletter are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, rebroadcast, displayed, or otherwise published without the prior written permission of Playbook.com. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice, nor may you offer for sale or resale the material included herein. www.PLAYBOOK.com 1. 8 0 0 . P L A Y B O O K Marc Lawrence's BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW NFL PRESEASON COACHING RECORDS A Weekly Insight Into The Art Of Sports Handicapping W elcome to the 2014 preseason edition of the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter. Whether you are a football fundamentalist, a technical buff or a stats lover, we have it all for you under one cover in the PLAYBOOK, where each week through the Super Bowl we help you get every edge imaginable! “If past history were all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.” Those words of wisdom come from famous investor Warren Buffett – the point being you need to understand the present, too. And that’s what the weekly PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter does. It examines the past and moves it forward to the present. Think of the PLAYBOOK as your ‘value investor,’ so don’t make a move without it this season. In each issue I'll share with you a personal BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW handicapping article as I reveal an insider's approach to the art of football handicapping. Along with Best Bets, Awesome Angles, Tremendous Trends, NFL Over/Under Records and Trends, the PLAYBOOK.COM WISE GUYS CONTEST and a complete schedule featuring opening lines, we've got you covered. Also, be sure to check PLAYBOOK's 2-Minute Handicap featuring a quick-read into key stats and trends on the weekly football card – plus the Incredible Stat Of the Week. It's no wonder whenever the Wise Guys in Vegas speak of PLAYBOOK, they say it's " Where The Smart Money Is." Take the time to ensure your success this football season by subscribing to the 2014 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter. It’s never been easier: you can sign up online at www.PLAYBOOK.com or call Toll Free for instant service at 1.800.PLAYBOOK. You can also get EVERY ACTIVE COACH'S ATS RECORD inside the 2014 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL PREVIEW GUIDE magazine (FREE with a full-season subscription to the 2014 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER). Meanwhile, check out our NFL preseason game writeups on page 8 of this special kickoff edition. And later make sure you head over to the BETTING TOOLS section at www. PLAYBOOK.com for more good stuff. We hope you like what you see and decide to join us for ‘The Best Football Newsletter On The Planet’ this year. Remember, don't make a move without your PLAYBOOK, or your personal copy of the 2014 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL PREVIEW GUIDE! TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 NFL Preseason Coaching Records / Awesome Angle of the Month NFL Preseason 2-Minute Handicap / Incredible Stat For August PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter Subscription Savings NFL Preseason Super Systems / Wise Guys Contest / Smart Box NFL Preseason Data / NFL Preseason QB Rotations NFL Preseason Report / 2014 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings NFL Preseason 5, 4, 3 Best Bets and Key Plays The Experts Say: PLAYBOOK.com Handicappers’ 2014 Preview MIDWEEK ALERT Final 2013 College and NFL Stat Rankings Marc Lawrence’s PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB Victor King’s NFL Preseason Over/Unders NFL Fantasy CHEAT SHEET / PLAYBOOK Information Services Marc Lawrence's 2014 College & NFL Top 10 ATS Teams Marc Lawrence’s PREFERRED PICKS 2014 NFL Preseason Schedule / OFF SHORE SPORTS WAGERING f you’re looking to make a quick score before the start of the 2014 NFL season then look no further than the coaches and their preseason tendencies. It appears coaches like Jim Caldwell, Joe Philbin, Mike Smith and Ken Whisenhunt don’t put much stock in exhibition play, as evidenced by their collective 19-51 SU and 22-45-2 ATS career marks during the preseason. The same, however, cannot be said for Pete Carroll, Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton, who together are 45-29 SU and 49-24-2 ATS throughout the preseason. Then there’s Marvin Lewis, the epitome of consistency throughout his NFL career during the preseason, with repeating 23-22 SU, ATS and Over/Under marks. And if you’re like Victor King and ‘Totals’ are your cup of tea, take a look at the defensive priorities of Mike Tomlin and Jim Harbaugh – who together have played 15-24-2 to the UNDER in their preseason games. On the other side of the coin, coaches like Jim Caldwell, Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy and Rex Ryan seem more interested in fine-tuning the offense, going 56-28 OVER the total collectively in exhibition games. Please Note: O/U records are since 1999. O/U records with an asterisk (*) represents the coaches’ totals performance in preseason games since 1999 only. All other results are as an NFL head coach throughout his career. All Best/Worst Role results below are ATS, unless noted otherwise. And without further ado, we present another PLAYBOOK exclusive – the 2014 NFL Preseason Coaches records. Enjoy… I TEAM/COACH AZ - Bruce Arians ATL - Mike Smith BAL - John Harbaugh BUF - Doug Marrone CAR - Ron Rivera CHI - Marc Trestman CIN - Marvin Lewis DAL - Jason Garrett DEN - John Fox DET - Jim Caldwell GB - Mike McCarthy IND - Chuck Pagano JAC - Gus Bradley KC - Andy Reid MIA - Joe Philbin NE - Bill Belichick NO - Sean Payton NYG - Tom Coughlin NYJ - Rex Ryan OAK - Dennis Allen PHI - Chip Kelly PIT - Mike Tomlin STL - Jeff Fisher SD - Mike McCoy SF - Jim Harbaugh SEA - Pete Carroll TB - Lovie Smith TEN - Ken Whisenhunt SU 3-1 7-17 15-9 2-2 6-6 2-2 23-22 7-6 25-23 2-10 15-17 4-4 1-3 27-33 2-7 42-35 16-13 38-35 9-11 2-6 2-2 19-10 37-35 1-3 8-4 21-12 19-18 8-17 ATS 3-1 9-13-2 13-11 1-2-1 7-5 1-3 23-22 5-8 21-26-1 4-8 15-17 5-3 1-3 27-30-3 1-8 38-33-6 18-11 36-33-4 10-10 3-5 2-2 14-14-1 36-34-2 2-2 8-4 23-9-1 18-18-1 8-16-1 O/U 1-3 11-12-1 12-12 2-2 6-6 3-1 23-22 6-7 26-21-1 8-4 21-11 4-4 2-2 33-25-2* 5-4 29-27-1* 14-12-3 27-29* 14-6 5-3 3-1 11-17-1 34-23* 3-1 4-7-1 13-7* 20-17 13-12 AWESOME ANGLE OF THE MONTH BEST/WORSE ROLE 2-0 away 5-1 off SU fav loss 1-6 off DD ATS win 0-2 vs opp off SU win 5-1 if total 36 > pts 0-2 dog 1-6 opp off DD ATS win 1-5 SUATS off SU win 0-8-1 vs opp off SU fav loss 1-5 SUATS if total 36 < pts 5-1 SUATS off SU DD loss 5-1 SUATS if not dog 3 > pts 0-3 SUATS pick or dog 5-0 dog > 4 pts 0-6 vs opp Game Two > 7-1-1 vs opp off BB SU losses 10-1 vs opp off SU loss 5-0 off BB SUATS wins 0-5 SUATS Game One 1-4 dog > 4 pts 2-0 SUATS if total > 40 pts 51-5 if total > 37 pts 5-0 dog vs opp off SUATS win 2-0 away/0-2 home 4-0 SUATS off SU loss 11-1 vs opp off SU win 5-1 off SU dog win 1-8 vs opp off SUATS loss SEVEN WONDERS PLAY AGAINST any NFL preseason favorite of more than 7 points off a ATS W-L Record win if they are facing an Since 1983: opponent with at least one 15-1 win this preseason. (94%) View Marc's Awesome Angle Of The Week at the PLAYBOOK.com website! The PLAYBOOK.com website features the NET WIN OR IT’S FREE, BEST IN THE BUSINESS GUARANTEE™ ! page 2 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK 2-MINUTE HANDICAP FOR A COMPLETE 2-MINUTE HANDICAP OF EVERY GAME ON TODAY'S CARD, VISIT www.PLAYBOOK.com ATS = Against The Spread • A = Away • Con = Conference • D = Dog F = Favorite • H = Home • Rev = Revenge • R = Road • SU = Straight-Up NFL PRESEASON GAMES All results pertain to preseason only and are most recent ATS - Against The Spread - unless noted otherwise (NOTE: * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation and/or line in this game. Dual results – Straight-Up and Against The Spread – are separated with a ‘/ ’). Content contained in this report is exclusive published private property of PLAYBOOK™, PLAYBOOK.COM™ and PLAYBOOKCUBE™, and may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher. TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS WEEK ONE Thursday, August 7 Indianapolis NY JETS Cincinnati KANSAS CITY Dallas SAN DIEGO 1-6 SUATS Game One… 2-5 away vs AFC 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS vs AFC… 7-0 OVER Thursdays 6-3 away Game One… 8-1 OVER away Game One 1-7 SUATS vs AFC… 2-8 SUATS Game One 2-8 away vs AFC… 1-5 Thursdays (0-3 away) SERIES: 7-2 SUATS… 1-5-1 home Thursdays Friday, August 8 Miami ATLANTA Buffalo CAROLINA Oakland MINNESOTA 3-0 away Game One… 7-1 SUATS away Game One 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS vs AFC (0-6 home) *1-11 SU and 1-10-1 ATS vs NFC… 1-10-1 Fridays 5-0 vs AFC… 2-4 Fridays… 7-3 OVER Game One 3-11 vs NFC (1-5 away)… 1-3-1 away Game One 12-4-1 vs AFC (7-2 home)… 4-2 home Game One Saturday, August 9 Green Bay TENNESSEE 0-4 SUATS Game One… 1-7 away Game One SERIES: 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS / 4-0 OVER Note: View the full 16-game edition of the 2-MINUTE HANDICAP for NFL Preseason Week One TUESDAY, AUGUST 5 inside the BETTING TOOLS section on the all-new PLAYBOOK.COM website. WEEK TWO Thursday, August 14 Jacksonville CHICAGO 13-1 away vs NFC… 11-3 away off home 1-11 SUATS home off home… 3-15 home Game Two Friday, August 15 Tennessee NEW ORLEANS Detroit OAKLAND SERIES: 5-1 away / 5-1 dog / visitor 10-2 2-9 SUATS home off away… 1-4 home Game Two 8-2 SUATS away off home… *17-5 SUATS vs AFC 1-5 SUATS home off away… 1-3 SUATS Home One Saturday, August 16 Ny Giants INDIANAPOLIS Baltimore DALLAS 4-1 away vs AFC… 5-2-1 Away One 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS home off away 5-1 Away One… 13-6 RD off H… *5-0 OVER vs NFC 0-4 SUATS Game Two… 3-8 Saturdays INCREDIBLE STAT FOR AUGUST The Kansas City Chiefs are just 7-33 ATS in preseason games the last 10 years, including 0-15 ATS vs. a foe off an ATS win. Be sure to read the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK each week in the PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! TEAMS KEY FACTS, STATS & ATS TRENDS Note: View the full 16-game edition of the 2-MINUTE HANDICAP for NFL Preseason Week Two TUESDAY, AUGUST 12 inside the BETTING TOOLS section on the all-new PLAYBOOK.COM website. WEEK THREE Friday, August 22 Jacksonville DETROIT Carolina NEW ENGLAND Ny Giants NY JETS Oakland GREEN BAY Chicago SEATTLE 0-3 SUATS Game Three… *5-1 OVER vs NFC 6-0 SUATS home off away… *17-5 SUATS vs AFC *5-0 vs AFC… 2-6-1 UNDER away off home 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS Game Three… *3-7 vs NFC 1-3 away Game Four… 1-3 SUATS away off away SERIES: 16-6 SU & 15-6-1 ATS… 4-0 OVER vs NFC SERIES: 3-1 SUATS / 3-1 OVER… 1-13 Away Two 0-3 Fridays (1-4 home)… *2-6 vs AFC 3-10 vs NFC… *6-12 Fridays… 7-1 OVER Away One *4-0 SUATS Fri… 7-1 Home Two… 9-2 Game Three Saturday, August 23 Dallas MIAMI New Orleans INDIANPOLIS Minnesota KANSAS CITY Houston DENVER SERIES: 5-1 SUATS… 7-1 away off home *1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS vs NFC… 7-20-2 Home One 6-0 SUATS away Game Three… 6-1 away off home 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS vs NFC… *6-2 OVER vs NFC SERIES: 6-3 SUATS… *12-4-1 vs AFC… *9-3 Saturdays 2-14 Saturdays… *6-26 vs NFC… 2-8 home off away 6-0-1 ATS vs AFC… *6-1 SUATS Saturdays 1-7 Game Three… 2-8-1 Saturdays (0-4 home) Note: View the full 16-game edition of the 2-MINUTE HANDICAP for NFL Preseason Week Three TUESDAY, AUGUST 19 inside the BETTING TOOLS section on the all-new PLAYBOOK.COM website. WEEK FOUR Thursday, August 28 Detroit BUFFALO Indianapolis CINCINNATI New England NY GIANTS Chicago CLEVELAND Baltimore NEW ORLEANS Denver DALLAS Seattle OAKLAND SERIES: 6-0 SUATS… *17-5 SUATS vs AFC *1-11 SU and 1-10-1 ATS vs NFC… 2-6 Thursdays *1-4 away Thursdays… *2-5 away vs AFC SERIES: 8-4 / 4-1 home… *7-1 home vs AFC *3-7 vs NFC… 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS Game Four SERIES: 3-0-1 home… 2-0 SUATS Game Five 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS Away Two… 7-1 away off away SERIES: 1-3 SUATS… 2-4 SUATS Game Four *13-6 RD off home… *7-0-1 Thursdays 1-5 Home Four… 2-9 SUATS home off away SERIES: 4-1 ATS… 11-3 SUATS Game Four (5-1 away) 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS home Game Four 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS Game Four… 6-0 Away Two 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS Game Four… 0-4 Thursdays Note: View the full 16-game edition of the 2-MINUTE HANDICAP for NFL Preseason Week Four TUESDAY, AUGUST 26 inside the BETTING TOOLS section on the all-new PLAYBOOK.COM website. NFL PRESEASON FAST FACT: The Detroit Lions are 15-3 SUATS in the last 6 years in Games Two, Three or Four. 1.800.PLAYBOOK • www.PLAYBOOK.com • page 3 FU STILL THE BEST FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER ON THE PLANET! Ro M W llb ajo OW LL ac r $ k Pr ! SE To ic AS ON 19 e 99 SP EC IA LO FF ER 9 9 YOU GET ALL THIS! When you subscribe to the 2014 PLAYBOOK Football Handicapper’s Newsletter, the nation’s top-ranked weekly football newsletter (documented in the Power Sweep Football Newsletter Contest), you get all this – INSIDE EVERY ISSUE YOU’LL FIND: • Top Star-Rated Best Bets Of The Week • Terrific Writeup Analysis On Every Game • Awesome Angle Of The Week • Incredible Stat Of The Week • Key NFL Over/Under Handicap • Wise Guys Contest Picks • Weekly College And NFL Game Rotation Schedule • Opening Lines On Every College And NFL Game PLUS ENJOY ALL THIS AS A FREE BONUS: • Internet Download Every Tuesday • One Week Marc’s Late Phone Football Service • Free Weekend Update Phone Service • Free NFL Preseason Football Plays • Free Digital 2014 Playbook Preview Magazine 21 WINNERS IN A ROW! THAT’S RIGHT! The 2011 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter delivered 21 WINNING PICKS IN A ROW, documented in Issues 11 and 12 when our BEST BETS struck gold – going 14-0. Along with winning selections on the AWESOME ANGLE, INCREDIBLE STAT and TRIVIA TEASER PLAYS OF THE WEEK picks, the two issues totaled an amazing 21-0! 2013 PLAYBOOK FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER ROCKS! • $4650 Net Profit per star rating • $3560 Net Profit NFL Picks • 13-6 • 68.5% Awesome Angle • 11-7 • 61.1% Upset Special Here’s what our enthusiastic readers have to say about the weekly PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter: “The Playbook football newsletter is easily the best insider information there is… hands down!” Daniel Donnelly, Avon Lake, Ohio “The weekly Playbook football newsletter is simply the best there is on the market today. I can’t wait to read all the amazing info. Keep up the great work.” The Pin, North Royalton, Ohio … “You guys have the best football information on the planet. Keep the winners coming!” Stuart Haves, Hallandale Beach, Florida GET PLAYBOOK. GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLE. 50 Save $ if you order before August 1st! Regular $149 for the season – Yours for only $99 if you act now! Log on to subscribe at www.PLAYBOOK.com or call 1.800.PLAYBOOK! page 4 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK Scan For Free Sample Playbook Football Newsletter! NFL PRESEASON SUPER SYSTEMS NFL PRESEASON SUPER SYSTEMS WHICH HAVE WON 75% OR MORE ATS Below are three NFL PRESEASON Super System plays along with their Win-Loss records in games since 1983. Play accordingly and, remember, NEVER FORCE A PLAY. 1. PLAY AGAINST any home favorite of 6 or more points off one-win exact if that win was by 10 or more points. 2. PLAY AGAINST any Game Two favorite of 4 > points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss. 3. PLAY ON any 0-2 SU Game Three away favorite or dog of 2 < points. ATS W-L RECORD: ATS W-L RECORD: ATS W-L RECORD: 20-3 (87%) 24-6-1 (80%) 41-0 SUPER SYSTEM ALERT! 18-4 (82%) Just like the plays contained each week throughout the season in Marc’s famous PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB, every one of the aforementioned SUPER SYSTEMS has subsets that are 100% perfect, having combined to go 41-0 ATS! You can find these subsets on the PLAYBOOK.com website simply by clicking on the Angles, Systems and Trends link inside the BETTING TOOLS section of the site! P L A Y B O O K . C O M WISE GUYS CONTEST 2014 N ow in its 29th year, the WISE GUYS CONTEST is a $10,000 winners-take-all contest. The TOP THREE finishers, the BEST BET champion and the FINAL 4-WEEK winner will take home the money, with each winning selection printed in the PLAYBOOK Newsletter carrying a value of one point, all winning DOUBLE PLAYS worth two points, and a one-time TOP PLAY OF THE YEAR (noted with an asterisk) worth three points. The designated DOUBLE PLAY BEST BET PICKS can be purchased every Friday at the Playbook Store (www.PLAYBOOK.com) for only $10 a week, or FREE if you are a PLAYBOOK.COM VIP ALL ACCESS MEMBER! All selections are graded against the lines posted after 1:00 PM Mondays on the WISE GUYS CONTEST page at PLAYBOOK.com. Congratulations to 2013 Champion JB Sports. Remember, you can follow the selections of each week’s Top 20 contestants, along with notable pros like: BIG Dave Lemmon, Billy The Kid, Doc’s Sports, Jerry Lambert, Joe Nelson, Jorge Gonzalez, Ken Thomson, Kevin O’Neill, Marc Lawrence, Matty Baiungo, Norm Hitzges, Peter Brown, Richard Witt, Rob Vinciletti, Robert Ferringo, Rocketman Sports, Ross Benjamin, Sammy Jankus, Scott Landau, Southern Comfort, Special K Sports, Statfox Dave, Steve Merril, Stormin’ Norman, Tom Freese, Victor King, TD Tony, Ward Peterson and more – every week in the 2014 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter! SMART BOX DO IT TO ME ONE MORE TIME Sometimes the price you’re asked to pay for success turns out to be a bargain. And in today’s economy, we’ll take all the bargains we can find. Take the case of NFL teams that have just enjoyed winning back-to-back home games during the preseason. One might think these teams are primed for a letdown. However, $10,000 A WINNERS-TAKE-ALL BEST BET CONTEST 2013 WISE GUYS TOP FINISHERS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. CONTESTANT W-L/BEST BETS JB Sports 23-13 / *13-5 Ward Peterson 21-14 / 14-3* Ken Thomson 20-16 / *13-5 Peter Brown 21-15 / *12-6 Jerry Lambert 22-14 / *10-8 Jorge Gonzalez 20-16 / *12-6 Robert Ferringo 22-13 / *10-7 Southern Comfort 23-13 / 10-8* Special K Sports 19-17 / *13-5 PTS 37 35 34 34 33 33 33 33 33 – ALL ATS TIES OMITTED / * W-L RESULT FOR 3 PICK – Best Bet Champion: Ward Peterson (28 pts) Final 4-Week Champion: Billy The Kid (13 pts) as one of our favorite football analysts, Lee Corso, would say, “Not so fast, my friend!” That’s because teams in this role are a solid 46-25-1 ATS when taking to the road off a pair of home victories in the preseason since 1983, including a glittering 7-2 ATS performance the last three seasons. Better yet, send them away off a double-digit win and they’re a 26-9 ATS winning proposition. Dress these same guys up as dogs and they respond like a pack of hungry canines, going 19-5 ATS. Incidentally, there is also a 15-0 ATS PERFECT subset contained inside this SMART BOX situation that occurs whenever our qualifying team failed to cover their previous home victory by 15 or more points. Here is a list of the eight NFL teams that will take to the road off back-to-back home games this preseason: 8/22 – Carolina at New England and Chicago at Seattle; 8/23 – Washington at Baltimore, Minnesota at Kansas City and St. Louis at Cleveland; 8/28 – Indianapolis at Cincinnati, New England at NY Giants, San Francisco at Houston and Seattle at Oakland. Editor’s Note: the 15-0 ATS subset contained inside this study is similar to the same subsets members of Marc’s PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB enjoy during the regular season (see page 11 for more details on the PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB). You can log on to the PLAYBOOK. COM website, or call our office toll-free for no obligation information on the PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB at 1.800.PLAYBOOK. Don’t miss out: 6-month FREE VIP memberships available at PLAYBOOK.com until August 1st! 1.800.PLAYBOOK • www.PLAYBOOK.com • page 5 NFL PRESEASON DATA Ø COACH AND TEAM ATS PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN OF NFL TEAMS IN THE PRESEASON TEAM FAV & DOG ROLES S /1990 • COACH & TEAM PRESEASON ATS DATA S /1983 TEAM FAV DOG MOST RECENT PRESEASON TRENDS – ALL ATS Arizona Atlanta Baltimore Buffalo Carolina Chicago Cincinnati Cleveland Dallas Denver Detroit Green Bay Houston Indianapolis Jacksonville Kansas City Miami Minnesota New England New Orleans NY Giants NY Jets Oakland Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis San Diego San Francisco Seattle Tampa Bay Tennessee Washington 21-19 25-21 24-27 13-22 15-19 18-26 17-24 12-14 21-36 33-29 25-21 27-28 11-12 20-26 21-22 16-32 19-31 28-23 25-21 21-26 18-27 22-17 22-27 26-33 31-26 20-22 23-18 28-29 27-22 22-25 26-32 28-27 27-28 27-21 26-17 31-32 21-19 28-25 26-29 19-15 22-26 22-18 23-26 22-21 13-12 29-25 19-12 18-31 28-20 27-19 22-23 35-19 23-26 36-22 25-27 15-22 20-23 24-30 28-24 24-18 32-19 29-18 23-15 19-24 9-1 off SU loss vs opp off DD SU win, 4-12 HF’S VS < .500 opp, 1-6 off BB SUATS losses vs opp off SU loss 10-1 off SU dog win vs opp off SU loss, 6-1 RF’s, 8-2 away off SU fav loss, 1-8 H under Smith 7-1 away off DD ATS loss, 0-5 favs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 1-6 off DD SU win under Harbaugh 0-6 favorites off DD SU win, 0-6 off BB SU wins, 2-8 home vs opp off DD SU loss, 1-9 L10 away 8-0 off SU dog win, 5-1 dogs vs opp off DD SU win, 1-6 favorites off BB SU losses, 6-1 off BB SU wins 5-1 dogs off DD SU loss, 0-7 favorites off BB SUATS losses, 1-5 home vs opp off SU dog win 1-6 away off SU fav loss, 1-6 dogs vs opp off BB SU losses, 8-1 off SU loss vs opp w/ revenge under Lewis 7-1 HD’s, 0-7 dogs vs opp off SUATS win, 1-6 favs vs < .500 opp, 1-6 away vs opp off SU dog win 0-8 home vs opp off DD SU win, 1-7 dogs vs opp off BB SU losses, 1-6 away off BB SU losses 7-0 dogs off SU fav loss, 7-1 off BB SUATS losses, 0-6 away off SU dog win, 0-5 off SU win under Fox 6-0 home off DD SU win, 5-0 favs off BB SU wins, 2-14 .500 > RD’s vs opp off SU loss 7-1 away off DD SU loss, 1-5 home after scoring 35 > pts, 5-1 favorites vs .500 > foe under McCarthy 4-1 dogs vs opp off DD SU loss, 4-1 < .500 off DD ATS loss, 0-4 off DD SU win vs opp off SU loss 11-2 favorites off DD SU loss, 5-1 off BB SU losses vs < .500 opp, 9-2 RD’s vs opp off DD SU win 7-1 off BB SU losses, 4-1 HD’s, 4-0 favorites off SU fav loss, 7-1 away off DD SU win, 8-2 O/U L10 2-14 L16, 1-7 home vs opp off BB SU wins, 1-7 away vs opp off DD SU win, 3-12 dogs off SU fav loss 0-4 favorites off BB SU wins, 1-6 away vs opp off SU fav loss, 2-7 RF’s, 1-8 SUATS under Philbin 4-0 dogs vs opp off BB SU wins, 7-1 home off SU loss vs opp off SU loss, 1-7 away vs opp off DD SU loss 11-0 home vs opp off BB SU losses, 6-1 dogs vs opp off SU fav loss, 6-1 O/U L7, 1-5 RF’s under Belichick 4-0 dogs off BB SU losses, 10-1 vs opp off SU loss under Payton, 7-1 away off DD SU win 1-6 away vs opp off SU dog win, 1-6 favorites off BB SU losses, 2-8 .500 > dogs under Coughlin 6-0 away off DD SU win, 9-2 favorites w/preseason revenge, 21-6 dogs vs opp off SUATS win 0-7 favorites vs opp off SU fav loss, 0-4 home after allowing 35 > pts, 1-9 dogs off DD ATS loss 5-1 RF’s w/ revenge, 0-5 home vs opp off BB SU wins, 1-7 favorites off BB SUATS wins 7-0 dogs vs opp off BB SU losses, 1-5 away off SU dog win, 1-6 w/ revenge vs opp off SU dog win 6-1 aft scoring 35 > pts, 5-1 vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 4-1 away off SU dog win, 1-4 dogs off BB SU losses 11-1 away when < .500, 5-1 favorites off SU fav loss, 5-1 away off DD ATS loss, 0-4 HD’s off SU loss 5-1 off BB SUATS losses, 0-6 vs < .500 opp off DD SU loss, 1-6 vs div opp, 4-0 off SU loss under Harbaugh 10-2 < .500 HF’s off SU loss, 8-1 dogs off DD SU loss, 6-1 off BB SU losses, 7-1 away under Carroll 7-1 dogs vs opp off SU dog win, 12-3 .500 > off SU loss, 0-5 away off SU dog win 14-2 dogs vs opp off SUATS win, 6-1 favorites off BB SU losses, 0-4 HD’s, 1-7 home vs opp off DD SU win 5-0 off DD ATS win vs opp off SU loss, 4-0 away after allowing 35 > pts, 0-6 dogs vs opp off DD SU loss NFL TEAM ARIZONA ATLANTA BALTIMORE BUFFALO CAROLINA CHICAGO CINCINNATI CLEVELAND DALLAS DENVER DETROIT GREEN BAY HOUSTON INDIANAPOLIS JACKSONVILLE KANSAS CITY PRESEASON QB ROTATIONS QUARTERBACK DEPTH CHART Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Logan Thomas, Ryan Lindley Matt Ryan, T. J. Yates, Sean Renfree Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning E. J. Manuel, Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, Joe Webb Jay Cutler, Jordan Palmer, Jimmy Clausen, David Fales Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, A J McCarron, Matt Scott Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky, Kellen Moore Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish Chad Henne, Blake Bortles, Ricky Stanzi Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Aaron Murray, Tyler Bray A Look at Probable NFL Preseason Quarterback Rotations for 2014 TEAM MIAMI MINNESOTA NEW ENGLAND NEW ORLEANS NY GIANTS NY JETS OAKLAND PHILADELPHIA PITTSBURGH ST. LOUIS SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SEATTLE TAMPA BAY TENNESSEE WASHINGTON QUARTERBACK DEPTH CHART Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen Matt Cassel, Christian Ponder, Teddy Bridgewater Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo Drew Brees, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin Eli Manning, Curtis Painter, Ryan Nassib Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd Matt Schaub, Derek Carr, Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, G.J. Kinne B. Roethlisberger, B. Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brendon Kay Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Austin Davis Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert, McLeod Bethel-Thompson Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, B. J. Daniels Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka, Alex Tanney Jake Locker, C. Whitehurst, Zach Mettenberger, Tyler Wilson Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy NFL PRESEASON FAST FACT: New England has gone a perfect 0-8 ATS since ’08 as a preseason favorite of > 3 pts. page 6 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK NFL PRESEASON REPORT A Game-By-Game ATS Breakdown of NFL Teams in the Preseason Since 1983 (MRT results: Most Recent Trends • All ATS Ties Omitted) GAME ONE TEAM ARIZONA CARDINALS ATLANTA FALCONS BALTIMORE RAVENS BUFFALO BILLS CAROLINA PANTHERS CHICAGO BEARS CINCINNATI BENGALS CLEVELAND BROWNS DALLAS COWBOYS DENVER BRONCOS DETROIT LIONS GREEN BAY PACKERS HOUSTON TEXANS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS MIAMI DOLPHINS MINNESOTA VIKINGS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS NEW YORK GIANTS NEW YORK JETS OAKLAND RAIDERS PHILADELPHIA EAGLES PITTSBURGH STEELERS ST. LOUIS RAMS SAN DIEGO CHARGERS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS TENNESSEE TITANS WASHINGTON REDSKINS GAME TWO GAME FOUR GAME THREE GAME FIVE ATS MRT ATS MRT ATS MRT ATS MRT ATS MRT 15-15 14-14 15-15 13-17 10-8 15-14 16-15 9-6 13-18 19-11 11-15 12-19 6-5 17-14 7-9 15-16 11-18 17-14 12-15 18-13 19-11 11-19 15-15 9-18 16-14 12-18 17-14 13-16 16-15 14-15 13-16 17-14 3-1 0-3 2-0 2-0 1-0 0-2 2-0 4-0 2-0 3-0 1-0 0-4 3-0 1-6 0-3 1-4 0-2 0-3 4-1 3-0 2-0 0-5 1-0 1-8 0-2 0-2 0-1 0-1 3-0 0-1 0-2 3-1 17-14 18-13 17-12 12-17 7-12 13-16 13-17 7-8 15-16 16-13 16-15 17-14 8-4 13-18 8-11 6-24 17-11 19-10 16-14 18-11 16-14 19-10 12-19 20-10 13-16 13-18 18-13 16-14 16-15 13-16 17-13 14-14 1-4 1-0 0-2 0-2 1-6 1-3 2-0 2-0 0-4 0-2 0-1 4-1 3-0 2-0 1-5 0-11 7-1 2-0 3-1 2-0 0-1 4-1 0-1 2-0 0-2 2-7 3-0 3-1 2-0 0-3 0-1 1-0 14-16 18-12 16-15 16-14 9-9 13-18 12-18 7-8 10-20 12-17 15-16 15-14 5-7 18-13 12-7 13-16 17-13 13-17 17-13 15-15 11-19 20-10 9-21 16-15 13-17 17-13 17-11 19-12 23-8 18-12 18-13 17-14 0-2 0-1 0-1 0-2 2-0 3-0 0-2 0-4 0-2 0-3 5-1 0-1 0-2 1-0 0-3 1-0 0-4 0-3 0-6 6-1 0-6 1-0 1-5 4-0 0-1 6-0 2-0 2-0 3-0 3-0 2-0 7-0 17-14 12-18 17-13 9-22 9-9 15-15 14-17 8-6 16-14 17-13 15-16 13-17 3-8 15-14 12-7 11-19 13-17 21-10 13-17 16-15 12-18 20-11 13-18 10-20 17-14 13-17 12-16 13-16 20-10 15-15 15-15 16-15 3-1 0-5 1-0 0-6 2-0 0-1 1-0 1-0 2-0 1-3 6-0 0-1 2-0 0-1 2-0 1-0 0-2 3-1 1-0 2-0 0-1 1-0 0-7 0-1 0-2 0-1 0-3 3-0 8-0 0-2 0-2 2-0 0-2 3-0 0-2 2-4 1-0 3-2 1-1 0-1 4-8 4-5 1-1 1-4 1-0 2-3 1-0 2-2 2-6 2-1 3-0 3-3 2-1 2-0 6-1 2-3 5-2 3-1 1-1 6-4 2-2 2-1 1-3 2-3 0-2 3-0 0-2 0-1 1-0 0-2 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1 1-0 0-3 1-0 0-3 1-0 1-0 0-3 0-1 3-0 2-0 1-0 2-0 0-1 1-0 1-0 3-0 0-1 4-1 0-1 1-0 1-0 1-3 2014 NFL STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE RANKINGS STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE VS. ALL OPPONENTS TEAM RANK OPP WINS OAKLAND ST. LOUIS DENVER SAN FRANCISCO KANSAS CITY SAN DIEGO ARIZONA SEATTLE NY JETS NEW ENGLAND MIAMI GREEN BAY ATLANTA BUFFALO WASHINGTON DALLAS CHICAGO DETROIT PHILADELPHIA TAMPA BAY CAROLINA MINNESOTA CINCINNATI NY GIANTS NEW ORLEANS PITTSBURGH CLEVELAND BALTIMORE JACKSONVILLE HOUSTON TENNESSEE INDIANAPOLIS 1 2 3 3 5 5 7 7 9 10 11 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 160 157 155 154 155 154 153 150 137 135 134 133 132 132 131 132 129 126 128 125 125 123 125 125 121 122 121 121 119 115 114 113 OPP LOSSES VS WIN OPP 116 117 118 117 119 118 122 120 128 129 131 130 130 133 134 136 133 133 137 137 139 138 141 141 140 142 142 144 145 147 149 150 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 4 4 5 5 5 3 5 6 4 6 5 6 5 4 5 4 VS. NON-DIVISION OPPONENTS ONLY OPP WIN PCT TEAM RANK OPP WINS .580 .573 .568 .568 .566 .566 .556 .556 .517 .511 .506 .506 .504 .498 .494 .493 .492 .486 .483 .477 .473 .471 .470 .470 .464 .462 .460 .457 .451 .439 .433 .430 DENVER KANSAS CITY SAN DIEGO GREEN BAY PHILADELPHIA NEW ENGLAND DALLAS CHICAGO OAKLAND SEATTLE SAN FRANCISCO INDIANAPOLIS CAROLINA DETROIT NY JETS CINCINNATI NEW ORLEANS NY GIANTS WASHINGTON MIAMI TENNESSEE ATLANTA ARIZONA JACKSONVILLE MINNESOTA ST. LOUIS PITTSBURGH BALTIMORE BUFFALO TAMPA BAY HOUSTON CLEVELAND 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 105 97 94 93 92 91 92 89 88 88 88 87 85 84 83 85 81 83 81 80 78 76 79 77 77 77 76 75 74 69 69 67 OPP LOSSES OPP WIN PCT 66 71 74 76 77 77 78 79 80 80 81 80 79 81 82 85 82 85 86 85 85 84 88 87 88 89 90 92 91 91 93 98 The PLAYBOOK ‘TOTALS’ TIPSHEET (32-17-2 ATS last year for 65% winners) is only $99 for the season! 1.800.PLAYBOOK • www.PLAYBOOK.com • page 7 .614 .577 .560 .550 .544 .542 .541 .530 .524 .524 .521 .521 .518 .509 .503 .500 .497 .494 .485 .485 .479 .475 .473 .470 .467 .464 .458 .449 .448 .431 .426 .406 2014 NFL PRESEASON FOOTBALL Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK selection is Underlined & Bold. Thursday, August 7 WEEK THREE Saturday, August 23 DENVER over Seattle by 13 St. Louis over CLEVELAND by 12 What a way to start the NFL preseason with a rematch of the game that concluded the 2013 campaign, a smashing of Denver by Seattle in last year’s Super Bowl. Lest you think it’s the only reason we’re on the Broncos like a Kardashian on a celebrity, think again. The Seahawks also destroyed Denver, 40-10, in Week Three of the preseason last year, making this contest another of our famous ‘double entendre’ revengers. The database agrees with our findings, too, noting the favorite is 6-2 ATS in preseason clashes between these two outfits. Toss in Denver HC John Fox’s fancy for fast starts (8-4 SUATS) in initial practice games and this has the all makings of a major payback. The Clincher: Denver is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 exhibition openers – including 15-3 ATS versus NFC foes – and 3-0 SUATS at home. Surprisingly, the schedule maker made a concerted effort in not giving many teams a rest advantage this preseason. In fact, this is one of only three games on the entire exhibition slate this campaign with one team holding a 2-day rest advantage over another – and we’re biting. For openers, veteran head coach Jeff Fisher (the NFL’s best underdog coach) is 7-3 ATS as a road dog in dress rehearsal games (Game Three) in his NFL preseason career, including 6-1 ATS when facing a foe off a road game. And that’s not to mention Fisher’s solid 17-7 SU and 14-9-1 ATS career mark against AFC opposition in the preseason, despite last year’s 9-point loss here in Week One of the exhibition season. With his adversary, rookie head coach Mike Pettine, more likely concerned with acquainting himself with his roster, look for Fisher to improve to 11-4 ATS away in preseason revenge affairs here today. The Clincher: St. Louis is 6-0 ATS in preseason Game Three’s. Cleveland is 0-4 SUATS in preseason Game Three’s. WEEK ONE 4 BEST BET Friday, August 8 CHICAGO over Philadelphia by 10 Bears boss Marc Trestman took it on the chops, 54-11, against Eagles chief Chip Kelly when these two NFL rookie coaches met on Week 15 of the 2013 regular season. The loss denied Trestman a winning season and thus sets the table for tonight’s fray. For openers, the Green Birds are still getting their footing following Kelly’s intense, nonstop practices. It showed in Philly’s 31-22 home loss as 3-point chalk in their preseason opener under his lead last year, a game in which the Eagles surrendered 442 yards of offense to the Patriots. Making matters worse, Philadelphia has been practically impotent when opening the preseason on the road, going 1-10 SU and 1-8-2 ATS. With the Eagles likely more interested in avenging the aforementioned preseason loss to New England next week, look for the Bears to come out of hibernation early here today. WEEK TWO Saturday, August 16 Miami over TAMPA BAY by 7 Lo and behold, if it isn’t another of our celebrated ‘double-entendre’ plays, this one involving a battle of the sunshine state. For those of you unfamiliar with the qualifications, any team that suffered both a regular and preseason loss to the same team the previous year automatically joins the ‘double-entendre’ club. Last year, the Dolphins were taken out twice by the Bucs, once in a stinging 17-16 home favorite loss during the exhibition season; the other in a 22-19 regular season road favorite loss. The Fish not only follow form in Game Two’s, going 7-1 SUATS the past eight seasons, they’re also 4-0 SUATS when not laying points and seeking preseason revenge entering 2014. Yes, we realize Joe Philbin’s disdain for preseason games but given Tampa’s tepid 6-141 ATS record as preseason chalk in home openers, we’re riding Flipper here. Especially knowing the visiting team in this preseason rivalry is 11-2 ATS, including 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings. Sunday, August 17 3 BEST BET SAN FRANCISCO over Denver by 13 A potential Super Bowl XLIX showdown between two of the best clubs in the west – with Denver looking to avoid an almost certain letdown following last week’s Super Bowl revenger against Seattle. Should Denver have exacted its revenge, it must be noted the Broncos are 0-8 ATS in the preseason off a SU win, including 0-5 ATS under the direction of John Fox. Regardless, they are 0-4 ATS in preseason games after skirmishing with the Seahawks. On the flip side, the Niners entered this preseason 6-1 SUATS in practice games under Jim Harbaugh when not getting 3 or more points. Add the fact that Frisco fell, 10-6, in its preseason home opener to the Broncos last year, along with this being the opening game at brand-new Levi’s Stadium, and we’ll expect the Niners to come up looking good in their new digs here tonight. The Clincher: The Broncos are 0-4 SUATS away in Game Two of the preseason. The Niners are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS home in the preseason off an away game. 5 BEST BET Sunday, August 24 San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO by 6 Yet another extra two days rest advantage in this contest and the Chargers are juiced to be on the receiving end. And like St. Louis, they too will look to avenge a preseason loss suffered at the hands of their host last year. And not only is San Diego seeking preseason revenge for the second week in a row, the Niners are off Sunday’s big-time revenge clash with the Broncos. The Bolts’ 9-4-2 ATS mark as dogs in their final road game of the exhibition season stands tall. As does San Fran’s lukewarm 3-6-1 ATS mark in preseason home finales off a win (check Denver result last week). In a contest where the numbers and situations form a strong tag-team, look for the Niners to go down for the count this evening. WEEK FOUR Thursday, August 28 Indianapolis over CINCINNATI by 6 The Colts look to complete our preseason ‘double-entendre’ trifecta when they invade the Queen City on the final day of preseason play today. It was a year ago when the Bengals downed Indy on this field, 27-10, in the preseason for both clubs and then again, 42-28, here later in December. The preseason defeat snapped a 3-0 ATS run by the Colts in this series, while the regular season beating marked the only time in Andrew Luck’s brilliant NFL career that Indianapolis came up a loser in a contest in which they scored more than 24 points under his lead (now 15-1 SU). Meanwhile, the Bengals bring a pedestrian 7-12 SUATS mark in Game Four’s into this affair and are eyeing up a division opener with Baltimore next week. It all points to the points – and we’ll take them. Arizona over SAN DIEGO by 7 Not sure why this game was scheduled on this date with both teams meeting next week in Glendale to open the 2014 regular season. Regardless, with only three days of rest apiece, don’t expect either team to show their cards today. And speaking of cards, the Redbirds were shot down, 24-7, as 3.5 point home favorites in Week Three of the preseason by the Chargers last year, marking the fifth straight defeat for Arizona in this preseason series. Today, though, look for Zona to take full advantage with San Diego coming down off back-to-back preseason revengers the past two weeks. Noting Bruce Arians’ solid approach to the preseason (3-1 SUATS last year) – and the Cardinals’ 9-3 ATS log as dogs of 7 or less points in preseason finales – the points become the play in this low-scoring, boring battle of tip-toeing teams. page 8 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK THE EXPERTS SAY: Our PLAYBOOK.com Handicappers Preview The 2014 Football Season T o better prepare you for the upcoming football season, we asked the EXPERTS at Playbook.com for their take on the year ahead. You can read the in-depth answers and analysis from each of the Experts in the 2014 PLAYBOOK Football Previews 10 Questions Interviews inside the Betting Tools section – or on each of the Experts’ Home Pages – at Playbook.com. For now, enjoy these snippets from the Interviews… TIM NOLAN: Duke had a great year in 2013 but they had gone twenty years without a winning season before that. They have some easy non-conference games against Elon, Troy and Kansas but have to face Miami, Georgia Tech, UNC and Va Tech in the ACC. PLAYBOOK: Which college football team(s) do you see as potential overachievers for 2014? LARRY THOMPSON: Auburn and Oregon. BRAD DIAMOND: Oklahoma. The Sooners finished 11-2 last year by winning six of the last seven games on their schedule, frosting the Alabama program with a 45-31 bowl win to finish off the season. I believe Oklahoma will be playing in the national championship game, carrying a 13-0 season into the tilt. Remember, the Sooners are LOADED, bringing back 16 starters to the fold. OU also boasts an impressive 43-10 SU mark since 2010. MATT FARGO: Kentucky Wildcats. JIM FEIST: Ole Miss. The Rebels were supposed to bust out last year but had some bad luck. They are really loaded with talent and experience for 2014, led by a dynamite offense. VICTOR KING: Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane bottomed out last year after winning 8 or more games in eight of the previous ten years. They move into a new conference (AAC) in 2014 in which their ‘10-returning starters’ defense can dominate. MARC LAWRENCE: Marshall and NC State. BILL MILTON: Alabama. This may sound weird since I am picking a team that some have in the National Title Game, but I am going to go with the Tide. The loss to Auburn was a FLUKE, and despite the bowl loss to Oklahoma, they outgained the Sooners by 100 yards while stuck in a massive letdown spot. I will be stunned if they do not win the whole enchilada. ROB VINCILETTI: Houston returns 17 starters from an 8-5 team and they did well considering they played a brutal schedule with just about every team finishing over .500. This year they will be breaking in a new stadium. Houston scores early and often and the way they play offense will remind folks of Oregon. On defense, they improved by 14 points and have 9 starters back. This will be one fun to team to watch. PLAYBOOK: Which college football team(s) do you see as potential underachievers? ROCKY ATKINSON: Arizona State, Clemson, Louisville, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin. MARK FRANCO: Notre Dame. The big question now is whether 2012 starting QB Everett Golson can keep his academics where they need to be while shaking off the rust of sitting out a year. Huge nose guard Louis Nix declared for the NFL and Stephon Tuitt soon followed. Coaches will have to get the defensive front in order while facing 10 Bowl teams from last season. TONY GEORGE: Missouri. Only four starters return on offense and four on defense and the Tigers lost all their key playmakers from last year’s SEC East Championship team. They also cut loose their #1 WR Green-Beckham due to drug violations. JOE NELSON: Texas A&M has been in the spotlight the past two seasons but the first season without QB Johnny Manziel could be difficult. Kevin Sumlin is winning a lot of recruiting battles but the schedule stacks up against the Aggies in 2014. ALEX SMART: Stanford. Still a fine team, but lost key starters on the line (just one returns). This version of the Cardinal will need time to mature. RICHARD WITT: Minnesota. Golden Gophers staged a sustained, powerhouse emotional rally behind HC Jerry Kill but factor in the near-inevitable emotional regression – and some likely paybacks (from Nebraska and Northwestern) – and things look less than rosy. PLAYBOOK: Which NFL teams do you see as potential overachievers in 2014? JIM FEIST: New Orleans. The Saints didn’t win the division last year but this offense is deadly with Sean Payton and Drew Brees. And the job first-year defensive coordinator Rob Ryan did last year was outstanding, bringing the blitz, stopping the run and upgrading sacks. Who dat? You know who! MARK FRANCO: Arizona. After making the jump from 5-11 to 10-6 last year, you could say the Cardinals made the leap into contention under first-year head coach Bruce Arians. Veteran QB Carson Palmer and his array of receiving weapons helped Big Red field the league’s 12th-best offense (346.4 YPG). Meanwhile, Arizona’s 6th-ranked defense (317.4 YPG) helped to ensure the team was solid on that side of the ball. It’s a very tough division in the NFC West but Arizona could be playoff bound in 2014. STEVE MERRIL: Chicago Bears. JOE NELSON: The AFC South was dreadful last season but it could be a much more formidable group in 2014. The South plays the AFC North teams and the NFC East teams for a pretty favorable draw. No team will play more than five games against 2013 playoff teams so there should be opportunities for each team to succeed. Indianapolis should contend for one of the top spots in the AFC and even with new coaching staffs, Tennessee and Houston are in favorable positions for instant improvement after many tough breaks last season with close losses and injuries. Even lowly Jacksonville should be expected to be much more competitive in 2014. Obviously it is difficult for all four teams in the same division to be overly successful but expect at least three of the four teams to produce an improved record compared with the 2013 standings. T.J. PEMBERTON: Cleveland and NY Jets. ALEX SMART: Chicago. Minus the weird losses last year, this Bears team was one of the most dangerous in all of the NFL. With just a little luck, the Bears will claw back in a big way and leave their mark on the minds of the betting public from the get-go. TIM NOLAN: Seattle. Why? Because the Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year and are in the same division as San Francisco. Both are projected to win around 11 games. Arizona and St. Louis are also in their division and have projected win-totals of 7-8 games for 2014. No dynasty here! RICHARD WITT: Chicago. Yes, the Monsters of the Midway were hard-pressed to bumble away last season’s NFC North crown, but they managed it. These guys can kick bad teams around, but they’ve long had trouble putting away competitive sides on the lakefront since Jay Cutler’s arrival. HC Marc Trestman owns a bright offensive mind but in hiring him, the Bears have gone away from their DNA of rock-hard defense. If these guys get drilled at Frisco in the Week Two Monday-nighter, it could be a very, VERY ugly first half of the season, from which this squad would be hard-pressed to recover. PLAYBOOK: Which NFL team best figures to go ‘OVER’ its projected win total for 2014? ROCKY ATKINSON: Houston Over 7 1/2 wins. JOE D’AMICO: Carolina Over 8 1/2 wins and New Orleans OVER 9 1/2. DOC’S SPORTS: Tennessee Over 7 wins. JORGE GONZALEZ: St. Louis Over 7 1/2 wins. JAMES PATRICK: Cleveland Over 6 1/2 wins. ROB VINCILETTI: Atlanta Over 8 1/2 wins. After finally winning a playoff game with QB Matt Ryan two years ago, the Falcons had a miserable 4-win campaign in 2013. Atlanta has bolstered its defense, particularly through the draft where 7 of the 9 selections were on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons dealt with many offensive injuries, most notably Julio Jones and Steven Jackson. If these guys stay healthy, watch out! PLAYBOOK: Which NFL team best figures to go ‘UNDER’ its projected win total for 2014? PETER BROWN: Baltimore Under 8 1/2 wins. BRAD DIAMOND: New York Jets Under 7 wins. JIM FEIST: Denver Under 11 1/2 wins. During their 13-3 campaign last year, the Denver offense was unstoppable – until the Super Bowl, that is. For 2014, the Broncos lose their top running back, changed the secondary and likely overpaid for Aqib Talib and DE Demarcus Ware. And the schedule is brutal, matched against the NFC West. Good luck against Seattle again! STEVE MERRIL: Kansas City Under 8 1/2 wins. BILL MILTON: Pittsburgh Under 8 1/2 wins and Tampa Bay Under 7 wins. JOE NELSON: Detroit Under 8 1/2 wins. PLAYBOOK: What is the one rule you should never violate when handicapping football? PLAYBOOK: Which NFL teams do you see as potential underachievers? ROSS BENJAMIN: Never bet on a college favorite of 21.5 or more points. ROCKY ATKINSON: Minnesota Vikings. MARC LAWRENCE: Never lay double digits with bad defensive teams. VICTOR KING: Kansas City. History tells us every year at least five new teams will qualify for the 12team postseason field. And every year, there are teams that seriously underachieve after making the Playoffs. In 2014, that will be KC. Despite going 11-5 last year, the Chiefs actually have a defense (#24/368 YPG) that should have brought them an 8-8 or 7-9 record. JOE NELSON: Never forget that you are handicapping a season, not a single game or weekend. You must keep a long-term approach and long-term money management or you will never succeed. ALEX SMART: Never over-evaluate a team based soley on the media hype of any given week. ♦ 1.800.PLAYBOOK • www.PLAYBOOK.com • page 9 MIDWEEK ALERT Listed below are our exclusive 2013-14 FINAL COLLEGE AND PRO FOOTBALL STATS RANKINGS, a quick read guide into the offensive and defensive stats and rankings compiled by each of the teams. Reading across we find each team's record in Outyarding Its Opponents (ITS-In The Stats), average Points For (PTF), Points Against (PTA), Offensive Rushing Yards (OFR), Offensive Passing Yards (OFP), Total Offensive Yards (OYD), Total Defensive Yards (DYD), Defensive Passing Yards (DFP), and Defensive Rushing Yards (DFR) – along with their numerical ranking against all other teams. Stat Rankings 2013 COLLEGE STAT RANKINGS TEAM AIR FORCE AKRON ALABAMA ARIZONA ARIZONA ST ARKANSAS ARKANSAS ST ARMY AUBURN BALL ST ITS 2-10 4-8 11-2 7-6 11-3 3-9 4-9 4-8 10-4 10-3 PTF 25 20 38 33 40 21 29 24 40 39 RNK 88 110 17 37 9 104 64 94 9 14 BAYLOR 10-3 BOISE ST 9-4 BOSTON COLLEGE 6-7 BOWLING GREEN 10-4 BUFFALO 8-5 BYU 11-2 CALIFORNIA 3-9 C MICHIGAN 3-8 CINCINNATI 11-2 CLEMSON 11-2 52 38 28 35 30 30 23 23 32 40 COLORADO COLORADO ST CONNECTICUT DUKE E CAROLINA E MICHIGAN FLORIDA FLORIDA ATL FLORIDA INT’L FLORIDA ST FRESNO ST 25 36 21 33 40 19 19 26 10 52 43 TEAM ITS NC STATE 4-8 NEBRASKA 8-5 NEVADA 5-7 NEW MEXICO 4-8 NEW MEXICO ST 1-11 NORTH CAROLINA 6-7 NORTH TEXAS 8-5 NO ILLINOIS 12-2 NORTHWESTERN 5-7 NOTRE DAME 7-6 PTF 23 32 27 33 21 33 32 40 26 27 PTA RNK OFR RNK OFP RNK OYD RNK DYD RNK DFP RNK 30 81 163 71 239 59 402 73 400 62 219 46 25 44 216 19 197 96 413 60 371 37 215 32 34 102 182 49 247 53 429 46 506 120 247 88 43 121 309 4 114 123 423 53 516 122 260 104 45 123 142 93 241 58 383 83 550 126 250 91 24 36 148 85 277 28 425 51 403 64 221 49 18 8 181 50 230 69 411 63 350 19 228 61 25 44 297 7 223 77 520 6 412 73 261 107 27 64 172 62 227 71 399 74 424 89 256 102 22 19 150 82 255 40 405 71 366 32 198 15 DFR 181 156 259 256 300 182 122 151 168 168 RNK 81 52 125 123 126 83 15 47 68 68 40 65 59 47 68 58 85 99 6 52 OHIO ST OHIO U OKLAHOMA OKLAHOMA ST OLD DOMINION OREGON OREGON ST PENN ST PITTSBURGH PURDUE 46 3 27 73 33 37 39 14 42 7 45 4 35 26 29 64 26 79 15 121 23 27 22 22 34 20 31 26 27 38 28 64 19 19 102 12 88 57 64 114 309 134 224 172 160 274 94 174 126 67 4 99 18 62 72 9 119 58 103 125 203 245 199 277 359 291 373 259 236 216 91 54 94 28 5 22 3 37 62 80 512 379 423 449 519 565 467 433 362 283 8 85 53 38 7 2 27 44 98 122 377 406 351 384 452 371 436 381 365 460 47 68 21 50 102 37 100 49 31 105 268 218 213 242 255 205 246 237 217 225 112 41 30 79 101 22 87 74 38 55 109 188 138 142 197 166 190 144 148 235 9 85 24 32 94 67 89 37 43 117 209 141 134 174 117 258 142 163 205 125 147 103 30 23 76 12 124 32 62 101 18 41 RICE 10-4 RUTGERS 5-8 SAN DIEGO ST 8-5 SAN JOSE ST 8-4 SMU 7-5 SOUTH ALABAMA 8-4 SOUTH CAROLINA 10-3 SO MISS 2-10 STANFORD 9-5 SYRACUSE 8-5 TCU 7-5 30 55 24 27 73 30 30 55 32 32 45 35 27 73 33 29 64 25 34 32 20 17 119 42 32 45 19 23 97 25 25 88 25 36 81 92 105 97 44 12 120 9 44 44 227 129 167 137 94 173 198 73 208 195 119 17 102 68 98 119 60 32 124 22 38 112 181 236 258 355 341 253 254 243 202 180 226 105 62 39 7 9 42 41 56 92 106 74 408 365 425 492 435 426 452 316 410 375 345 67 96 51 16 42 48 37 117 66 86 107 362 413 385 460 413 385 350 436 343 369 357 29 75 53 105 75 53 19 100 16 36 24 200 312 254 245 272 225 196 211 254 230 226 17 123 98 85 115 55 12 25 98 63 58 162 101 131 215 141 160 154 225 89 139 131 59 4 20 106 30 56 51 115 3 26 20 59 85 84 119 117 125 81 121 9 76 79 148 223 116 219 143 212 238 238 129 224 191 43 112 11 109 34 104 118 118 19 114 91 TEMPLE TENNESSEE TEXAS TEXAS A&M TEXAS ST TEXAS TECH TOLEDO TROY TULANE TULSA UAB 3-9 3-9 8-5 7-6 5-7 8-5 7-5 7-5 5-8 5-7 2-10 25 88 30 24 94 29 29 64 26 44 5 32 24 94 27 36 23 31 33 37 29 34 32 36 25 88 21 21 104 34 26 79 44 81 74 57 92 64 88 74 108 14 102 122 149 189 196 187 172 118 241 142 126 165 179 83 44 36 45 62 113 14 93 103 70 51 250 165 212 352 155 393 207 322 185 190 215 46 112 82 8 115 2 89 14 104 102 81 399 354 408 539 327 511 448 464 311 355 394 74 105 67 4 113 9 39 28 118 103 79 475 418 407 475 396 419 421 484 351 431 498 111 83 69 111 59 84 87 115 21 95 118 299 211 224 253 249 217 251 314 228 231 272 122 25 52 96 89 38 95 124 61 65 115 176 207 183 222 147 202 170 170 123 200 226 77 102 84 111 41 100 73 73 17 97 116 220 211 230 243 238 214 171 197 208 225 254 48 25 63 81 75 31 5 13 24 55 98 140 199 197 151 189 195 81 143 160 150 117 27 96 94 47 87 92 1 34 56 45 12 UCF UCLA UMASS UNLV USC USF UTAH UTAH ST UTEP UTSA VANDERBILT 11-2 9-4 1-11 6-7 9-5 2-10 4-8 10-4 2-10 8-4 8-5 35 26 21 37 21 23 12 124 33 30 55 32 30 55 21 14 123 29 29 64 28 32 45 17 22 102 39 26 79 26 30 55 25 14 28 97 92 14 74 73 7 116 57 44 160 197 125 173 172 90 160 179 184 175 131 72 34 105 60 62 121 72 51 46 56 101 282 251 156 238 227 167 236 233 163 242 229 25 44 114 60 71 111 62 67 113 57 70 442 448 281 411 399 257 396 412 347 417 360 41 39 123 63 74 124 78 62 106 57 100 362 387 434 433 339 351 398 331 469 376 347 29 55 99 97 13 21 61 12 109 46 17 240 218 218 217 218 211 267 224 221 233 197 77 41 41 38 41 25 111 52 49 68 13 122 169 216 216 121 140 131 107 248 143 150 15 72 107 107 14 27 20 8 120 34 45 250 261 231 166 203 215 216 205 260 215 91 107 65 3 19 32 36 22 104 32 177 223 140 86 200 158 156 144 151 179 78 112 27 2 97 55 52 37 47 79 VIRGINIA VIRGINIA TECH WAKE FOREST WASHINGTON WASHINGTON ST WEST VIRGINIA WEST KENTUCKY WEST MICHIGAN WISCONSIN WYOMING 3-9 10-3 3-9 10-3 6-7 3-9 11-1 4-8 10-3 6-6 20 110 33 23 97 19 18 117 24 38 17 23 31 52 33 26 79 33 31 52 25 17 119 35 35 26 16 31 52 37 97 9 36 28 97 97 44 105 5 111 154 120 95 240 54 149 197 116 284 196 78 111 118 15 126 83 34 114 8 36 212 236 197 259 368 262 262 211 197 282 82 62 96 37 4 35 35 86 96 25 366 356 292 499 422 411 459 327 481 478 94 102 121 14 55 63 30 113 19 20 404 283 367 389 459 454 341 419 305 482 66 4 33 56 104 103 15 84 7 114 233 172 223 227 270 264 178 169 203 262 68 7 51 59 114 110 10 4 19 109 171 111 144 162 189 190 163 250 102 220 75 10 37 59 87 89 62 121 5 110 PTA RNK OFR RNK OFP 40 119 263 12 105 29 74 123 108 219 14 4 205 26 248 24 36 265 11 194 27 64 192 41 266 31 88 209 21 149 26 57 207 23 200 32 92 310 3 78 25 44 328 1 173 25 44 153 80 324 RNK 124 78 51 99 31 117 93 126 108 12 OYD 368 342 453 459 458 358 407 388 501 477 RNK 92 109 34 30 33 101 69 81 12 21 DYD 491 397 286 400 373 414 414 412 421 414 RNK 117 60 5 62 42 78 78 73 87 78 DFP 240 233 180 232 235 234 233 198 258 219 RNK 77 68 11 67 73 72 68 15 103 46 DFR 251 164 106 168 138 180 181 214 163 195 RNK 122 65 7 68 24 80 81 105 62 92 1 17 71 26 55 55 97 97 45 9 24 25 29 16 24 22 46 29 21 22 36 44 74 5 36 19 125 74 14 19 261 199 213 193 167 268 124 133 168 175 13 31 20 40 68 10 106 100 67 56 357 278 154 266 227 226 329 208 304 333 6 27 116 31 71 74 11 87 19 10 618 477 367 459 394 494 453 341 472 508 1 21 93 30 79 15 34 110 24 10 360 413 431 322 384 379 529 405 315 357 26 75 95 10 50 48 125 67 9 24 215 249 269 171 216 218 341 204 211 201 32 89 113 5 36 41 126 21 25 18 145 164 162 151 168 161 188 201 104 156 88 23 104 37 9 113 113 79 125 1 6 38 30 30 27 25 45 21 22 37 12 30 114 81 81 64 44 123 14 19 111 1 81 121 205 85 178 144 158 146 183 76 205 151 110 26 122 54 91 77 89 48 123 26 81 249 266 234 248 324 178 171 198 143 316 395 48 31 66 51 12 107 110 95 119 15 1 370 471 319 426 468 336 317 381 219 521 546 91 25 115 48 26 112 116 84 126 5 3 469 417 384 417 367 511 314 324 429 282 430 109 81 50 81 33 121 8 11 93 3 94 260 276 250 243 250 253 172 161 224 157 283 104 117 91 81 91 96 7 2 52 1 120 GEORGIA 10-3 37 21 29 GEORGIA STATE 3-9 19 113 37 GEORGIA TECH 8-5 35 26 23 HAWAII 4-8 27 73 39 HOUSTON 5-8 33 37 22 IDAHO 2-10 18 117 47 ILLINOIS 4-8 30 55 35 INDIANA 5-7 38 17 39 IOWA 6-7 26 79 19 IOWA ST 4-8 25 88 36 KANSAS 1-11 15 121 32 74 111 28 116 19 126 105 116 9 108 92 170 102 300 115 145 141 139 201 179 144 154 66 116 6 115 90 95 96 30 51 91 78 314 253 130 301 271 231 288 307 194 219 140 16 42 121 20 30 68 23 18 99 78 120 484 355 430 416 416 372 427 508 373 363 294 18 103 45 58 58 89 47 10 87 97 120 375 468 360 500 419 528 481 528 304 463 433 44 108 26 119 84 123 113 123 6 107 97 227 245 244 281 276 316 243 290 175 239 242 KANSAS ST KENT ST KENTUCKY LA-LAFAYETTE LA-MONROE LOUISIANA TECH LOUISVILLE LSU MARSHALL MARYLAND MEMPHIS 23 27 31 26 30 26 12 22 23 25 25 28 64 88 57 81 57 1 19 28 44 44 178 184 148 206 123 160 147 202 206 148 138 54 46 85 24 108 72 88 29 24 85 97 225 187 193 212 238 206 314 251 295 249 173 76 103 101 82 60 90 16 44 21 48 108 403 371 341 418 361 366 461 453 501 397 311 72 90 110 56 99 94 29 34 12 77 118 360 410 427 394 427 409 252 340 368 375 371 26 71 90 57 90 70 1 14 35 44 37 MIAMI FLORIDA 7-6 34 32 27 MIAMI OHIO 0-11 10 125 36 MICHIGAN 8-5 32 45 27 MICHIGAN ST 13-1 29 64 13 MIDDLE TENN 6-7 29 64 26 MINNESOTA 5-8 26 79 22 MISSISSIPPI 10-3 30 55 24 MISSISSIPPI ST 8-5 28 71 23 MISSOURI 9-5 39 14 23 NAVY 7-6 34 32 24 64 108 64 3 57 19 36 28 28 36 160 102 124 174 198 195 191 190 235 327 72 116 106 58 32 38 42 43 16 2 266 124 249 212 208 148 283 244 250 86 31 122 48 82 87 118 24 55 46 125 426 226 373 386 406 343 474 434 485 413 48 125 87 82 70 108 23 43 17 60 427 484 371 252 403 373 372 349 411 394 90 115 37 1 64 42 41 18 72 57 ITS PTF RNK PTA RNK OFR RNK OFP RNK OYD RNK DYD RNK DFP RNK DFR RNK TEAM 4-8 8-6 3-9 8-6 11-2 1-11 6-6 8-4 1-11 13-1 7-6 8-5 4-8 2-10 6-7 3-9 6-6 12-1 10-3 10-4 7-6 5-7 33 21 21 34 22 19 35 36 42 26 20 37 104 104 32 102 113 26 23 7 79 110 10-4 7-6 9-4 10-3 8-4 12-1 7-6 8-4 7-6 1-11 RNK 97 45 73 37 104 37 45 9 79 73 2013 NFL STAT RANKINGS TEAM OFP RNK OYD RNK DYD RNK DFP RNK DFR RN ARIZONA ATLANTA BALTIMORE BUFFALO CAROLINA CHICAGO CINCINNATI CLEVELAND 12-4 7-9 5-11 8-8 9-8 9-7 12-5 11-5 24 22 20 21 22 28 26 19 14 19 24 22 19 2 8 27 20 28 22 24 16 30 20 25 4 27 11 14 2 30 4 22 96 78 83 144 124 114 110 86 24 32 29 2 12 15 18 28 250 265 224 194 193 268 263 254 13 5 19 28 29 4 6 9 346 343 307 338 317 382 373 340 14 16 29 20 26 7 9 18 317 6 233 13 380 26 244 18 335 11 230 12 333 8 204 4 302 3 213 6 397 30 235 14 306 4 204 4 333 8 222 8 84 136 105 129 89 162 102 111 1 31 10 26 3 32 8 16 MIAMI MINNESOTA NEW ENGLAND NEW ORLEANS NY GIANTS NY JETS OAKLAND PHILADELPHIA 4-12 5-11 9-9 15-3 6-10 7-9 7-9 8-9 20 24 28 25 18 18 20 27 24 14 2 10 28 28 24 5 21 30 21 20 24 24 28 24 7 30 7 4 14 14 27 14 90 130 131 98 83 135 125 155 26 9 8 23 29 5 11 1 224 214 252 305 225 185 209 253 19 24 12 2 18 31 25 10 314 344 383 403 308 320 334 408 27 15 6 3 28 25 22 2 360 398 383 301 334 335 364 396 20 31 27 2 10 11 21 29 235 287 254 188 225 247 256 287 14 30 26 2 10 22 27 30 125 111 129 113 109 88 108 109 24 16 26 20 12 2 11 12 DALLAS DENVER DETROIT GREEN BAY HOUSTON INDIANAPOLIS JACKSONVILLE KANSAS CITY 8-8 15-4 10-6 11-6 9-7 9-9 2-14 5-12 27 35 25 26 17 25 15 28 5 1 10 8 31 10 32 2 27 25 24 27 27 24 28 21 24 22 14 24 24 14 27 7 94 113 112 133 109 106 79 130 25 16 17 7 20 21 31 9 248 334 280 261 241 250 218 218 15 1 3 7 16 13 22 22 342 447 392 394 350 356 297 348 17 1 5 4 12 11 31 13 416 348 347 373 319 371 383 378 129 99 100 127 122 133 132 119 26 5 6 25 23 30 29 22 PITTSBURGH ST. LOUIS SAN DIEGO S FRANCISCO SEATTLE TAMPA BAY TENNESSEE WASHINGTON 7-9 4-11 11-7 8-10 12-6 3-13 9-6 8-8 24 22 24 25 27 18 23 21 14 19 14 10 5 28 18 22 23 23 21 17 14 24 24 30 12 12 7 3 1 14 14 30 87 110 123 140 137 101 118 134 27 18 13 3 4 22 14 6 253 196 259 186 197 176 219 235 10 27 8 30 26 32 21 17 340 306 382 326 334 277 337 369 18 30 7 24 22 32 21 10 338 347 370 315 285 348 339 355 13 15 22 5 1 17 14 19 222 244 261 218 184 238 227 244 8 18 29 7 1 16 11 18 116 103 109 97 101 110 112 111 21 9 12 4 7 15 19 16 32 17 15 24 7 23 27 25 287 249 247 246 197 238 251 259 30 24 22 21 3 16 25 28 ITS PTF RNK PTA RNK OFR RNK PLEASE NOTE: The COLLEGE AND NFL STAT RANKINGS shown on this page and individual game / team STAT LOGS are updated weekly throughout the season in the PLAYBOOK MIDWEEK ALERT Football Newsletter. Call 1.800.752.9266 now to subscribe! page 10 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK P E R F E C T I O N Per-fect (pur fikt) adj. 1 having no defect or fault DOCUMENTED FACT: The PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB went 21-12 last season and has had only one losing season since its inception 12 years ago! Q - What is The PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB? A - An online internet service that provides weekly College Football & NFL Football Super Systems in 100% PERFECT winning roles outlining the parameter, the logic supporting the system and the qualifying teams each week throughout the regular season. Here’s an example from last year’s PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB: DARLIN’ BE HOME SOON PLAY AGAINST any NFL non-division road favorite of more than 3 points off three consecutive home games from Game Eleven out in the season. ATS W-L SInce 1980: 12-0 Play Against: Philadelphia (W) Rationale: Taking to the road after a lengthy home stand is a difficult hurdle, especially when favored late in the season. Note: The home-lovin’ Eagles, playing in their first road game in nearly five weeks, dressed up as 7-point favorites at Minnesota in this role last season – only to get blown out in a 48-30 win by the Vikings! Q - How do I access the plays? A - Every Friday after 1:00 PM ET you log in at www. PLAYBOOK.com and enter your username and access code. It’s that simple! Scan For Free Sample Playbook Football Newsletter! The cost for the 2014 PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB is still only $179 for the entire campaign thru the end of the NFL regular season. That breaks down to less than $10 per week for amazing Super Systems from the powerful PLAYBOOK Football Database that you can file in your library and use forever! For more information, call the friendly PLAYBOOK Customer Service Department weekdays at 1.800.752.9266 anytime from 10:00 AM until 6:00 PM ET. THE BEST FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER ON THE PLANET! DOCUMENTED TOP RANKED FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER THE BEST PRICES START TODAY. SAVE 69 $ SAVE $69 when you order the weekly PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB 2-FOR-1 COMBO SPECIAL newsletter combination before August 1st. Regular $298 – Your cost when you order before August 1st: just $229! Log on to order at: www.PLAYBOOK.com The PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB 2-FOR-1 COMBO SPECIAL includes full season subscriptions to the weekly 2014 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter and the 2014 PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB – plus these free added bonuses: (1) Weekend Update Phone Service thru the NFL regular season • (2) Marc Lawrence’s NFL Late Phone Preferred Picks Preseason Selections • (3) One Week Marc Lawrence’s Award-Winning Late Phone Preferred Picks Selections! Or Call: 1.800.PLAYBOOK MAKE THE SWITCH. GET PLAYBOOK. GET EVERY EDGE IMAGINABLE. 2014 NFL PRESEASON OVER / UNDERS by Victor King • King Creole Sports W elcome back Totals players! Our favorite time of the year is once again upon us. You’ll notice that just like in last season’s issue #1 of the Playbook, we like talking ‘TOTALS’. And there are a handful of Over / Under situations in which we can indeed turn a profit on… even in the NFL exhibition season. The games might not count for the players and coaches (in terms of wins and losses)… but they certainly DO for the bettors! We start with the best Home and Road OVER + UNDER teams in the last few seasons. After that, we take a look at individual team OU tendencies broken down by Game Number. We then conclude with some of the more noticeable OU patterns in regards to preseason series histories. I think we’ve got it all ‘covered’… On the next page, we’ve got something for the Fantasy ‘Ballers’. Check out King Creole’s NFL Fantasy Football ‘cheat sheet’ for your upcoming draft. I put 32 years of fantasy football experience to the test! 1) BEST Home and Road OVER and UNDER teams Best Home ‘OVER’ teams – Over the last four seasons, the best OVER team at home has been the DENVER BRONCOS. They’ve gone 7-1 O/U (88% Overs) at Sports Authority Field. Average OU line: 38.5. Average total points: 46.8. The average Bronco home game has gone OVER by +8.3 points. Right behind them at the #2 spot is the DETROIT LIONS. In the same 4-year time frame, the Lions have gone 6-1-1 O/U (86% Overs)… and the average toal points in those games has been a very high (for preseason) 49.0. Last year, both Lion home games went OVER (43 and 49 points respectively). Taking our database query a little farther back in the past, we find the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS and NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. Both teams have gone 11-4 O/U at home (73% Overs) since the 2006 season. Jacksonville home games have averaged 42.1 PPG in this time frame. New England ‘homies’ have averaged 43.9 ppg in that same 8-year stretch. And both of their home games went OVER last season (47.0 ppg). Honorable mention: HOUSTON: 5-1-1 O/U last 4 years (42.0)… BALTIMORE: 5-1 O/U last 3 years (54.0!)… CLEVELAND: 4-1-1 O/U last 3 years (43.8). Best Home ‘UNDER’ teams – The first team is one in which you NEVER want to go ‘Over the Total’ when they are playing at home. That would be the MIAMI DOLPHINS. In the last six seasons, Miami has gone UNDER the Total 83% of the time in their preseason home games (2-10 O/U). Average combined points: just 27.9 ppg. The average Dolphin home game has gone UNDER by more than a touchdown (-7.8 ppg). I’m sure that the heat and humidity in the month of August down here in South Florida has a lot to do with those consistent low-scoring results. Next up is the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. In their home games, Kansas City has gone 6-17-3 O/U (74% Unders) over the last 13 seasons. When the OU line in these Chief home games has been greater than (>) 34 points, the results improve to 3-15-3 O/U, with an average of 30.8 combined PPG. But exercise caution. The worm might be turning as three of their last four home games went OVER the Total in the last two seasons. Our third solid UNDER team at home is the PITTSBURGH STEELERS. Their home games have gone 8-19-1 O/U (70% Unders) since the 2000 season. When favored at home by more than a field goal (-3.5 or higher), these Steeler games have gone 2-11 O/U… with an average of just 28.2 combined PPG. Honorable mention: WASHINGTON: 7-17 O/U in the last 12 seasons (1-6 O/U when the OU line is > 38 points). Best Road ‘OVER’ teams – In the last five seasons, the best road ‘OVER’ team has been the OAKLAND RAIDERS. Their road games have averaged 44.8 total PPG in the same time span, and the games have gone 9-1 O/U (90% Overs). That’s a ‘total reversal’ (pun intended) from 2000-2007, when Raider road games went 3-13 O/U. Also on a more recent note, we can’t overlook the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. They’ve gone a perfect 5-0-1 O/U in the last three seasons when playing on the preseason road (47.1 combined PPG). Going back a little further, the numbers for Philly are still consistently strong at 18-9-2 O/U (67% Overs) since the 1999 season. Last season, Eagle ‘roadies’ had 55 and 47 total points scored. Our third strong ‘OVER’ team on the preseason road is the HOUSTON TEXANS. They’ve gone 16-5-1 O/U (79% Overs) in their road games over the last 11 seasons. Average total PPG in those games was 42.6. In the last two seasons, the Texans have gone 3-1 O/U. We’ll see if those highscoring results continue this year with a new Head Coach (Bill O’Brien) at the helm. Honorable mention: ARIZONA: 5-1 O/U L3Y (44.3)… NEW ORLEANS: 7-2-1 O/U L5Y (43.5)… NY JETS: 9-3 O/U L6Y… CHICAGO: 10-4 O/U L4Y. Best Road ‘UNDER’ teams – We start our fourth query into the Playbook NFL preseason database with the NEW YORK GIANTS. In the last 10 seasons, Giant road games have averaged just 34.5 total PPG… and have gone 5-14 O/U (74% Unders). If you remove the New England Patriots from the Giants’ preseason schedule, the results improve to 2-12 O/U versus any other team (86% Unders). Next up, when it comes to low-scoring road games… the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS jump right out. The Niners have gone 8-17 O/U (68% Unders) on the preseason road since the 2001 season. Right behind them is the BALTIMORE RAVENS. They’ve gone UNDER the Total 65% of the time over the last 13 seasons, with a record of 9-17-1 O/U. But at one point, these numbers were actually 5-17-1 O/U. The Ravens have gone a perfect 4-0 O/U the last two years on the road, so the ‘automatic-UNDER’ wager for Baltimore roadies has passed its prime. Honorable mention: CAROLINA: 2-6 O/U L4Y (33.0). 2) PRESEASON Week-by-Week OU TEAM TENDENCIES Week One (OU record and average PPG) St. Louis: 6-0 O/U (42.5)… Houston: 4-0 O/U (37.5)… Indianapolis: 4-0 O/U (50.5)… Seattle: 4-0 O/U (41.0)… Cleveland: 3-0-1 O/U (44.3)… Atlanta: 8-1 O/U (45.2)… Chicago 8-1 O/U (38.4)… NY Jets: 6-1 O/U (40.4)… New England: 4-1 O/U 43.6)… Philadelphia: 4-1 O/U (45.2). Pittsburgh: 1-8 O/U (27.6)… New Orleans: 1-7 O/U (31.9)… San Francisco: 1-6 O/U (29.6)… Kansas City 1-4 O/U (31.0)… Green Bay: 3-10 O/U (26.0)… Tampa Bay: 2-6 O/U (30.1)… Arizona: 3-8 O/U (29.5)… Baltimore: 3-7 O/U (31.8)… Buffalo: 3-7 O/U (32.0). Week Two Chicago: 4-0 O/U (57.0)… Cincinnati: 4-0 O/U (45.0)… New England: 4-0 O/U (43.3)… Green Bay: 7-1 O/U (46.4)… Seattle: 7-1 O/U (46.4)… Tampa Bay: 6-1 O/U 942.4)… Houston: 6-1-1 O/U (47.4)… Denver: 4-1 O/U 941.8)… Jacksonville: 4-1 O/U (45.8)…Oakland: 4-1 O/U (43.2)… New Orleans: 4-1-1 O/U 945.0). San Francisco: 0-4 O/U (25.5)… Washington: 1-6 O/U (32.7)… Minnesota: 1-4 O/U (33.6)… Carolina: 1-3 O/U (26.2)… Tennessee: 1-3 O/U (37.5)… San Diego: 2-4 O/U (33.7)… Kansas City: 4-8 O/U (29.6). Week Three Denver: 6-0 O/U (49.2)… New Orleans: 5-0 O/U (54.8)… Oakland: 5-0 O/U (55.0)… Pittsburgh: 4-0 O/U (48.0)… Baltimore: 3-0 O/U (63.7!)… Jacksonville: 3-0 O/U (62.3!)… San Francisco: 3-0-1 O/U (47.5)… New England: 5-1 O/U (47.8)… Buffalo: 4-1 O/U (51.2). Miami: 1-5 O/U (27.0)… NY Giants: 2-9 O/U (31.1)… Tampa Bay: 1-4 O/U (33.8)… Dallas: 1-4 O/U (32.2)… NY Jets: 2-8 O/U (29.8)… Kansas City: 2-7-1 O/U (35.8)… Chicago: 1-3 O/U (36.8)… Cincinnati: 103 O/U (37.5)… Cleveland: 2-4-1 O/U (39.3). Week Four NY Jets: 6-0 O/U (45.5)… Philadelphia: 6-0 O/U (43.8)… New Orleans: 4-0 O/U (49.5)… St. Louis: 4-0 O/U (45.5)… Minnesota: 4-1 O/U (49.6)… Tampa Bay: 4O/U (43.2)…Baltimore: 3-1 O/U (42.3)… Buffalo: 3-1 O/U (47.8)… Detroit: 3-1 O/U (47.8)… Green Bay: 6-2 O/U (39.8). Cincinnati: 0-3 O/U (34.7)… Indianapolis: 0-3 O/U (34.7)… Oakland: 0-3 O/U (25.0)… Seattle: 0-3 O/U (25.0)… Atlanta: 1-6 O/U (27.0)… Carolina: 1-6-1 O/U (32.0)… Pittsburgh: 1-4 O/U (34.2)… Dallas: 1-3 O/U (33.8)… New England: 1-3 O/U (32.2)… NY Giants: 1-3 O/U (32.3). 3) PRESEASON Series History OU PATTERNS Denver vs Seattle (8/7): 4-0 O/U (43.3) Jacksonville vs Tampa Bay (8/8): 5-1 O/U (42.2) Green Bay vs Tennessee (8/9): 4-0 O/U (46.0) New England vs Philadelphia (8/15): 4-0 O/U (48.3) Miami vs Tampa Bay (8/16): 0-6 O/U (24.3) Denver vs San Francisco (8/17): 1-3 O/U (33.0) Carolina vs New England (8/22): 1-3 O/U (31.2) NY Giants vs NY Jets (8/22): 3-10 O/U (32.5) Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh (8/22): 6-2 O/U (41.0) Dallas vs Miami (8/23): 3-1 O/U (39.8) Baltimore vs Washington (8/23): 1-4 O/U (32.3) Atlanta vs Jacksonville (8/28): 1-3 O/U (31.0 combined PPG) Buffalo vs Detroit (8/28): 3-1 O/U (47.8) Carolina vs Pittsburgh (8/28): 1-6-1 O/U (32.0) Cincinnati vs Indianapolis (8/28): 0-3 O/U (34.7) New England vs NY Giants (8/28): 1-3 O/U (32.2) NY Jets vs Philadelphia (8/28): 6-0 O/U (43.8) Oakland vs Seattle (8/28): 0-3 O/U (25.0) Tampa Bay vs Washington (8/28): 3-1 O/U (44.5) 65% ATS (32-17-2) in OVER / UNDER Plays last year! That was the documented record for the Playbook TOTALS TIPSHEET authored by Victor King. The Tipsheet is the ONLY weekly publication in the entire country devoted entirely to NFL Over / Under wagering. Every week in the regular season, the Totals Tipsheet will keep you posted with six pages of OU content for sharp Totals Players, including 3 OU BEST BETS in every newsletter. It’s delivered to your email address EVERY Tuesday evening throughout the season. 17 issues are yours for the full-season price of just $99.00. Call the Playbook office to grab your seat on King Creole’s 2014 ‘Totals Train’! page 12 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK KING CREOLE’S 2014 projected full-season Fantasy Football CHEAT SHEET (separated by ‘tiers’) QUARTERBACKS T1) Aaron Rodgers Drew Brees Peyton Manning Matt Stafford Andrew Luck T2) Robert Griffin III Matt Ryan Nick Foles Tom Brady Tony Romo Colin Kaepernick Jay Cutler Russell Wilson T3) Cam Newton Ben Roethlisberger Philip Rivers Andy Dalton Eli Manning Ryan Tannehill Carson Palmer Joe Flacco Josh McCown Alex Smith EJ Manuel T4) Sam Bradford Jake Locker Johnny Manziel Chad Henne Ryan Fitzpatrick Geno Smith Matt Schaub Matt Cassel T5) Teddy Bridgewater Michael Vick Brian Hoyer Derek Carr Blake Bortles Zach Mettenberger Tom Savage Kirk Cousins Mike Glennon Shaun Hill RUNNING BACKS T1) Jamaal Charles LeSean McCoy Adrian Peterson Matt Forte Eddie Lacy Montee Ball T2) Le’Veon Bell DeMarco Murray Marshawn Lynch Arian Foster Alfred Morris Gio Bernard Doug Martin Andre Ellington C.J. Spiller Reggie Bush T3) Shane Vareen Trent Richardson Zac Stacy Toby Gerhart Ryan Matthews Rashad Jennings Pierre Thomas Bishop Sankey Chris Johnson Ben Tate Joique Bell Ray Rice Frank Gore T4) Steven Ridley Steven Jackson Fred Jackson Knowshon Moreno Danny Woodhead Darren Sproles Maurice Jones-Drew DeAngelo Williams T5) Bernard Pierce Jeremy Hill Lamar Miller Darren McFadden Devonta Freeman Khiry Robinson Jonathan Dwyer T6) Terrance West Mark Ingram Chris Ivory Christine Michael Shonn Greene Charles Sims Jonathan Stewart LaGarrett Blount Knile Davis WIDE RECEIVERS T1) Demaryius Thomas Calvin Johnson Dez Bryant AJ Green Brandon Marshall Julio Jones T2) Jordy Nelson Antonio Brown Pierre Garcon Randall Cobb Keenan Allen Alshon Jeffrey Vincent Jackson Roddy White Victor Cruz Larry Fitzgerald Michael Floyd T3) Wes Welker Percy Harvin Jeremy Maclin Andre Johnson Marques Colston Mike Wallace Michael Crabtree Cordarrelle Patterson Julian Edelman DeSean Jackson T.Y. Hilton T4) Reggie Wayne Emmanuel Sanders Eric Decker Kendall Wright Golden Tate Torrey Smith Terrance Williams Dwayne Bowe Brandin Cooks Mike Evans T5) Cecil Shorts Sammy Watkins Greg Jennings Tavon Austin Marvin Jones DeAndre Hopkins James Jones Hakeem Nicks Kenny Stills T6) Kelvin Benjamin Brian Hartline Anquan Boldin Rueben Randle Jordan Matthews Kenny Britt Kyle Rudolph Jordan Reed Martellus Bennett Dennis Pitta KICKERS T3) Zach Ertz Heath Miller Delanie Walker Charles Clay Eric Ebron Antonio Gates T1) Phil Dawson Stephen Gostkowski Steven Hauschka Matt Prater Justin Tucker Mason Crosby Dan Bailey T4) Jared Cook Coby Fleener Ladarius Green Tyler Eifert Travis Kelce Marcedes Lewis Jace Amaro T2) Robbie Gould Nick Novak Matt Bryant Adam Vinatieri Blair Walsh Nick Folk Greg Zuerlein Dan Carpenter Shaun Suisham TIGHT ENDS T1) Jimmy Graham Julius Thomas Rob Gronkowski T2) Jordan Cameron Vernon Davis Greg Olsen Jason Witten DEFENSES T1) Seattle St. Louis Denver Cleveland T2) New England Tampa Bay Cincinnati Arizona Carolina San Francisco Kansas City Baltimore Green Bay T3) Buffalo New Orleans Chicago YES, WE’VE GOT YOU COVERED. ARM YOURSELF NOW for the upcoming football season with subscriptions to the six best gridiron information services in the country, including (1) Marc Lawrence’s weekly ECONOMY FOOTBALL CLUB, (2) the weekly 2014 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter, (3) the weekly 2014 PLAYBOOK Midweek Alert Football Newsletter, (4) Victor King’s weekly 2014 ‘TOTALS’ TIPSHEET, (5) Marc Lawrence’s 2014 online BLACK BOOK and (6) the 2014 PLAYBOOK STAT & LOG BOOK. Add it all up and it’s clearly the winningest football information available anywhere! Log on to order at: www.PLAYBOOK.com Or Call: 1.800.PLAYBOOK PLAYBOOK INFORMATION SERVICES THROUGH THE SUPER BOWL. 1.800.PLAYBOOK • www.PLAYBOOK.com • page 13 2014 COLLEGE AND NFL TOP 10 ATS TEAMS by Marc Lawrence “Money, so they say, is the root of all evil today. But if you ask for a raise, it’s no surprise that they’re giving none away.” B efore anyone reaches the 2014 College Football Championship Game and the Super Bowl, let’s take a look at my list of teams that appear to be on the brink of becoming ATS moneymakers in the season ahead. It’s important to note that this is a listing of potential moneymakers for the upcoming season, not necessarily teams that the public will fancy. All teams are listed in alphabetical order. Remember, as Pink Floyd put it, “Money, it’s a gas. Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash. New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I’ll buy me a football team.” NCAA’S 2014 TOP ATS TEAMS FLORIDA – The Gators become the epitome of a ‘Mission Team’ in 2014 after suffering their first losing season since 1979 last year. And talk about a coach on the hot seat – Will Muschamp’s posterior is smoldering. UF’s 34-2 SU mark during the first four games of the season the last nine years fits like a glove next to its 29-7 SU and 20-12-1 ATS mark the last three times the Gators managed 7 or fewer wins the previous year. The chomp is back! INDIANA – The Hoosiers return to our Top 10 list this season. An added year of experience to what was the nation’s youngest team in 2012 – along with 17 returning starters – makes this team a must-watch squad in 2014. An explosive offense that managed 42 strikes of 30 or more yards last season is led by electrifying RB Tevin Coleman (7.3 YPR), an OL that features six players each with a dozen or more starts, and a pair of seasoned QB’s. If new DC Brian Knorr does his job, the Hoosiers will be bowl-bound in 2014. LA-LAFAYETTE – Despite winning nine games and three bowls for the third year in a row last season, the under-the-radar Cajuns were just 4-8 ATS. Behind 15 returning starters, look for a reversal of fortune in 2014. HC Mark Hudspeth is the next unknown coach headed to a big-time program. After going 44-8 in his final four years at Northern Alabama, he has lifted La-La to new heights and now owns a 71-11 record over the last seven years. An experienced OL, a senior all-conference QB, depth at the skill positions, and an easier schedule gives them a realistic shot at a double-digit win campaign. Don’t bet against them. NORTHWESTERN – The Pat Fitzgerald Project was derailed last season when, after a 4-0 start, the Wildcats suffered a cruel last-second loss to Ohio State and then proceeded to drop six straight games – including a string of four in a row decided by either a field goal or less or overtime. It snapped a 5-year bowl skein in the process; thus, 18 starters are back with a vengeance. With the Buckeyes and defending champ MSU nowhere to be found 2014, and the Cats eager to even the score in 2014, look for Fitz to improve on his recent 5-1 ATS mark in Big 10 revenge tilts with a handful of payback games. TULSA – With the face of college football ever changing due to conference expansion, each year a ‘new kid on the block’ moves into the neighborhood and catches resident foes with their pants down. Utah State transitioned quite well into the MWC last season. Missouri proved worthy of moving to the SEC in 2012, while Nebraska fit nicely into the Big 10 in 2011. This year look for Tulsa to take to the AAC like peanut butter to jelly. Bill Blankenship’s Hurricane suffered a black eye in 2013, and they’ve averaged 9 wins a season the last three times following a losing effort the year before. With over 80% of its lettermen back, including 10 starters on defense, Tulsa’s move to a new conference is a ‘mission’ they’ll accept. LET’S KEEP AN EYE ON: MARSHALL – If Louisville was last year’s schedulefriendly choice to run the table and appear in a BCS bowl game, the Herd fit the bill this season. Aside from dressing up as favorites in every game they will play in 2014, Marshall has out-recruited every team in the C-USA with more than FORTY 3-and-4 star recruits dotting the roster! Behind a high-octane offense led by dynamic QB Rakeem Cato, there’s a new Marshall in town this year… MISSISSIPPI STATE – There’s nothing worse than a Bulldog with bite and Dan Mullen’s bullies look to sink their teeth into anyone who crosses their path this season. This is a squad loaded with experience second-to-none in the SEC. A fantastic finish last year capped an effort in which they held four foes to season-low yards. Look for Bully to be a browbeater in 2014… OREGON – If you’re like Paul Bunyan and don’t mind chopping wood, the Ducks should be your kind of team. Not only do they return a plethora of starters from one of the nation’s most potent offenses, they’re one of three college teams who improved their stats on both sides of the ball, yet regressed both SU and ATS. It’s T-I-M-B-E-R for foes crossing paths with their mighty axe this season… TCU – Facing a daunting schedule with its first six home games versus winning foes, TCU enters a ‘mission’ season’ following last year’s 4-win effort with one task at hand: improving an offense that has regressed each of the past three seasons. And HC Gary Patterson is anxious to accept the challenge. With the pieces in place, and 8 starters back on defense, there should be no croaking about a re-focused effort from the Frogs in 2014… TOLEDO – The Rockets return a huge portion of last year’s two-deep players, including 16 starters, six of whom were all-MAC performers. To top it off, despite winning 7 games last season, they missed out on a bowl for the first time in four years. Behind an offense loaded in the trenches and a defense welcoming back 9 starters, expect a direct flight to the lanes this year. NFL’S 2014 TOP ATS TEAMS ATLANTA – As Blood, Sweat and Tears put it best, “What Goes Up, Must Come Down.” To that tune we offer the sequel, “What Goes Down Must Come Up.” If it sounds like a ‘spinning wheel’ it is. After enjoying the fruits of five consecutive winning seasons behind QB Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith, the Falcons were shot down by the injury bug in 2013. However, with seven losses by 7 or fewer points, coupled with terrific offseason acquisitions and the return to health of the walking wounded, this ‘mission team’ appears headed back in the right direction in 2014. BALTIMORE – Call this the follow-up to the Falcons’ sequel above. After five straight doubledigit winning seasons under head coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco, the Ravens flew south for the winter for the first time behind the ‘dynamic duo’ in 2013. Close-call losses (five by 6 or less points; average defeat 3.2 PPG) set the table when the offense – no thanks to the worst ground attack in the loop – went into early hibernation, slipping 57 YPG. Through it all, the defense held firm, improving 31 YPG. The Black Birds’ 5-1 SU mark in their last six with the NFC South is a strong steppingstone. CLEVELAND – New head coach Mike Pettine was an excellent hire for this floundering franchise. It was he who masterminded the Jets’ initial ascent to the AFC title game with a defensive scheme for which Rex Ryan got all the credit. If you think otherwise, check Buffalo’s defensive improvement under his lead last season. Not only is the franchise abuzz with Johnny Football aboard, it’s important to remember the Browns were the only team in the NFL last year who improved their numbers on both sides of the ball, yet declined SU and ATS. And that is almost always a recipe for success the following year. HOUSTON – The enigma of all enigmas for statistical cappers, the Texans are back with a new look, and awash with confidence, after suffering NINE losses by a touchdown or less last season. It’s not often – perhaps NEVER – that an NFL team outyards its foes 29 YPG while winning only two games. New HC Bill O’Brien supplies the self-belief while the team hit a grand slam in the draft. A defensive wall (J.J. Watt, Jadaveon Clowney, et al) that will keep offensive linemen awake at night, along with the return of stud LB Brian Cushing, cements the stopunit. If offensive mastermind O’Brien’s acumen is as good as promised, this team could be playoff bound in 2014. NY GIANTS – A disastrous 0-6 start, compounded with a career-worst 27 interceptions and 69.4 QB Rating by Pro Bowl QB Eli Manning, was too much for Tom Coughlin’s club to overcome. As a result, the Giants missed the playoffs for a second straight season while losing backers’ money for the second year in a row, too. Despite it all, the G-Men improved their stop-unit 50 YPG. For what it’s worth, Coughlin has suffered only three non-winning years with New York. His troops bounced back to go 11-6, 14-6 and 10-6 the following seasons, posting an overall log of 35-18 SU and 31-21-1 ATS. LET’S KEEP AN EYE ON: GREEN BAY – If Eli Manning is on a mission this season, so is Aaron Rodgers. After suffering his first non-winning season as a starter with the Packers last year, Rodgers will be hell-bent on revenge after watching his team go 2-4-1 with him on the sidelines in 2013. With all-world LB Clay Matthews finally healthy, look for the Pack to be back this year… NEW ENGLAND – The Hoodie was at his best while playing handcuffed last season. The shackles come off this year with the return of star TE Rob Gronkowski, along with a healthy Vince Wilfork and LB Jerod Mayo – plus the addition of Darrelle Revis to the secondary. Anything short of a Super Bowl appearance will be a bummer for this perennial win-machine… PITTSBURGH – Like the Giants last year, the Steelers fell into an early hole and couldn’t get out. A pair of .500 seasons serves as the motivation, especially with 11 of their 16 losses coming by a TD or less. With Big Ben a stout 14-5 ATS as a dog with revenge in his NFL career, we’ll be on the take with the Black-and-Gold this year… TENNESSEE – Six losses by 8 of points or less last year sealed the fate of HC Mike Munchak. Thus, Ken Whisenhunt now roams the sidelines in Nashville. Whisenhunt’s 19-5 ATS mark as an NFL boss in games against foes off DD wins figures to enhance their pointspread ledger this campaign… WASHINGTON – After winning just three games last year – following a 10-victory debut with RGIII in 2012 – the Hogs sure look tempting as a mission team this season. But they’re not – although some insist they assumed the missionary position too many times last year. That’s what turning the ball over 34 times looked like to Redskins fans. Even so, Washington suffered seven loses by 8 or fewer points last year. With Robert Griffin finally healthy, look for an improvement in division play this year. ♦ There you have it, our ATS Top 10 list of College and NFL teams for 2014. Start the music and let the games begin. Good luck this season! Marc Lawrence Let me know your thoughts or opinion on this article – Tweet me: @MarcLawrence page 14 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK How was your football season last year? If you didn’t go during August and September, you weren’t with Marc Lawrence! That was his win-loss record the first two months of the season, as documented by the Sports Monitor in Oklahoma City. And aside from winning a documented $2,870 in net profits last season, Marc was also a perfect 4-0 on his 5★ and 10★ College releases throughout the regular season! Best of all, when you join Marc this football season by August 1st – in time for the NFL preseason – you will not only save $500 on the spot but also receive his weekly award-winning PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter FREE! Visit us at: PLAYBOOK.com To take advantage of this outstanding offer, you MUST register online at: www.playbook.com/freemonth 2014 NFL PRESEASON SCHEDULE HALL OF FAME WEEKEND SUNDAY, AUGUST 3 8:00 PM 8:00 PM (Canton, OH) NBC WEEK ONE THURSDAY, AUGUST 7 251 INDIANAPOLIS 7:00 PM 252 NY JETS 253 NEW ENGLAND 7:30 PM 254 WASHINGTON 255 SAN FRANCISCO 7:30 PM 256 BALTIMORE 257 CINCINNATI 8:00 PM 258 KANSAS CITY 259 SEATTLE 9:00 PM 260 DENVER 261 DALLAS 10:00 PM 262 SAN DIEGO FRIDAY, AUGUST 8 263 MIAMI 7:00 PM 274 MINNESOTA SATURDAY, AUGUST 9 7:30 PM 7:30 PM 269 NEW ORLEANS 8:00 PM 102 JACKSONVILLE 419 BUFFALO 261 CHICAGO 103 DETROIT 279 GREEN BAY 423 ATLANTA 104 BUFFALO SATURDAY, AUGUST 23 105 INDIANAPOLIS 7:00 PM 106 CINCINNATI 107 ST. LOUIS 263 TAMPA BAY 7:00 PM 4:30 PM 8:00 PM 280 TENNESSEE 424 HOUSTON 264 BUFFALO 108 MIAMI 281 HOUSTON 425 ARIZONA 265 DALLAS 109 NY JETS 8:30 PM 282 ARIZONA 426 MINNESOTA WEEK TWO THURSDAY, AUGUST 14 401 JACKSONVILLE 8:00 PM 402 CHICAGO ESPN FRIDAY, AUGUST 15 403 PHILADELPHIA 7:30 PM 404 NEW ENGLAND 405 TENNESSEE 8:00 PM 406 NEW ORLEANS 407 DETROIT 10:00 PM 10:00 PM 410 SEATTLE SATURDAY, AUGUST 16 411 GREEN BAY 4:00 PM SUNDAY, AUGUST 17 427 DENVER 4:00 PM 110 PHILADELPHIA 267 TENNESSEE 111 KANSAS CITY 7:00 PM 7:00 PM 268 ATLANTA 112 GREEN BAY 269 WASHINGTON 113 NEW ENGLAND 7:30 PM 7:30 PM 270 BALTIMORE 114 NY GIANTS 429 KANSAS CITY 271 NEW ORLEANS 8:00 PM CBS 272 INDIANAPOLIS 115 WASHINGTON 273 MINNESOTA 117 CAROLINA 8:00 PM 430 CAROLINA FOX MONDAY, AUGUST 18 431 CLEVELAND 8:00 PM ESPN 432 WASHINGTON WEEK THREE THURSDAY, AUGUST 21 251 PITTSBURGH 7:30 PM 252 PHILADELPHIA FRIDAY, AUGUST 22 253 JACKSONVILLE 7:30 PM 271 PHILADELPHIA 413 NY GIANTS 255 CAROLINA 414 INDIANAPOLIS 266 MIAMI 428 S FRANCISCO 254 DETROIT 7:00 PM 7:00 PM 7:00 PM 8:30 PM 412 ST. LOUIS 272 CHICAGO 7:00 PM 10:00 PM 262 SEATTLE 7:30 PM 422 TAMPA BAY 270 ST. LOUIS 8:00 PM 7:00 PM 260 GREEN BAY CBS 7:30 PM 8:00 PM 101 ATLANTA 8:00 PM 418 CINCINNATI 421 MIAMI 409 SAN DIEGO 268 JACKSONVILLE 259 OAKLAND 7:00 PM 278 NY GIANTS 265 BUFFALO 267 TAMPA BY 417 NY JETS 277 PITTSBURGH 408 OAKLAND 266 CAROLINA 258 NY JETS 420 PITTSBURGH 7:30 PM THURSDAY, AUGUST 28 7:30 PM 416 DALLAS 276 DETROIT 264 ATLANTA 7:30 PM 257 NY GIANTS 7:00 PM 275 CLEVELAND 241 NY GIANTS 242 BUFFALO 415 BALTIMORE 273 OAKLAND All times Eastern Daylight Time. Dates and times may change. 7:30 PM 256 NEW ENGLAND 7:30 PM 116 TAMPA BAY 8:00 PM 7:30 PM 274 KANSAS CITY 118 PITTSBURGH 275 ST. LOUIS 119 MINNESOTA 276 CLEVELAND 120 TENNESSEE 277 HOUSTON 121 SAN FRANCISCO 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 8:00 PM 9:00 PM 122 HOUSTON 278 DENVER SUNDAY, AUGUST 24 279 SAN DIEGO 4:00 PM FOX 280 SAN FRANCISCO 281 CINCINNATI 8:00 PM 124 CLEVELAND 125 BALTIMORE 8:00 PM 126 NEW ORLEANS 127 DENVER 8:00 PM 282 ARIZONA 123 CHICAGO 8:00 PM NBC FREE PICKS: 1.714.228.6272 WEEK FOUR 128 DALLAS 129 SEATTLE 10:00 PM 130 OAKLAND 131 ARIZONA 10:00 PM 132 SAN DIEGO NOTE: Issue #2 of the 2014 PLAYBOOK Football Newsletter will be available for download or internet delivery Tuesday, August 26th after 6:00 PM ET. page 16 • www.PLAYBOOK.com • 1.800.PLAYBOOK