Aquacultura – o novo período Neolítico

Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente
Às quartas, às 17h
Aquacultura – o novo período Neolítico
http://goodclam.org/apa
João Gomes Ferreira
Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal
Lisboa, 6 de Março 2013
Talk outline
•
The new Neolithic – food from the sea (4)
•
Sustainability and carrying capacity (10)
•
Virtual tools for aquaculture (10)
•
New ideas, going offshore? (4)
•
What about Portugal? The FORWARD project (17)
•
Synthesis (1)
http://goodclam.org/apa
Trends in fisheries and aquaculture
Live weight (106 tonnes per year)
65
60
Capture fisheries for human consumption
September 2011
55
50
r² = 0.99, p<0.01
45
40
2003
Data points
Extrapolation
Aquaculture
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year
Equivalent to the emergence of agriculture 10,000 years ago in the Neolithic period
Aquaculture in Europe and the world
Volume and value
Fast (FAO) facts
•
90% of the 68 million tonnes (Mt) of aquaculture products (105 billion USD)
originate from Asia (Sorgeloos)
•
Production of striped catfish Pangasius in the Mekong delta is >1 Mt y-1,
highest yields in the world, 350-400 tonnes ha-1 per crop (Sena da Silva)
•
30 Mt y-1 of extra aquatic products required to feed the planet by 2050
(Swaminathan)
•
US predicted expansion from 0.5 to 1.5 Mt y-1 (Olin)
•
Europe: production is 4.2% by volume, 9.1% by value (Sorgeloos)
Growth of both population and aquaculture will take place in developing
nations.
Aquaculture in Europe
Sustainability and legislation
Environmental, legal, and social pressures
•
Aquaculture is the most heavily regulated food production sector in Europe
(Varadi)
•
Competition for space, access to capital, availability of special services,
limited authorised veterinary products (Varadi)
•
Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) – no reference to aquaculture.
Benthic biodiversity, fish (in transitional waters); Good Ecological Status in
Europe by 2015
•
Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC) – Fish and Shellfish
Quality Descriptor (QD3). Aquaculture is seen only as a pressure. Good
Environmental Status by 2020
•
Many other parts of the world don’t come close to the EU regulatory
panorama
In all likelihood Europe will add value over volume.
Imports to Europe
If European consumption was at the level of Portugal (57.4 kg y-1 per
capita) an extra 27 Mt of fish products would be required annually.
Courtesy P. Sorgeloos, 2010, FAO GCA plenary address, Thailand.
Sustainability criteria: foundation in classical ecology
Current global criteria for site selection
Expansion of aquaculture has historically been a bottom-up process
Licensing or development
•
Space availability
•
Limits to production
•
Habitat destruction
•
Coastal eutrophication
•
Organic enrichment
•
Loss of biodiversity
Environmental basis varies widely
Reservoir culture in Mae Tak reservoir, Chiangrai, Thailand
Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus
Pond culture in Chiangrai, Thailand
Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus
Annual production (ton)
Aquaculture growth in Brazil (1994-2009)
140000
120000
100000
80000
21 %
annualized
growth
60000
40000
20000
0
•
•
•
1995
1997
1999
Typical production
250 cages per hectare
200 kg m-3, 6 m3 cages:
2001
2003
2005-1 2007
-1 cycle
300
ton ha
2009
Many reservoirs are used for tilapia cultivation – steel cages keep the
piranhas at bay;
Typical culture practice: stocking density of up to 300 kg m-3, harvest at
800 g after a 9 month growth period;
Carrying capacity is determined as 1/6 of the total allowable phosphorus
(30 g L-1), determined using the Dillon & Rigler (1974) model.
High growth, high impact, fragile assessment
Over carrying capacity farming
An extreme case study of cage farming in
Sandu Bay
(Zhang, 2008)
Yellow croaker
Zhu, 2010
Rapid overstocking…
• Yellow croaker cage farming was started in
Sandu Bay in 1995, 1000 fish cages in
Qingshan, 1996.
• 50,000 fish cages in Qingshan, (260, 000
fish cages in the whole Sandu Bay,) 2005
• Carrying capacity research indicated 40% of
the cages should be removed in 2005, but
things remain unchanged.
Zhu, 2010
Zhu, 2010
Ecosystem Approach to Aquaculture
(the gospel according to FAO)
Three principles
•
Aquaculture should be developed in the context of
ecosystem
functions
and
services
(including
biodiversity) with no degradation of these beyond their
resilience;
•
Aquaculture should improve human-well being and
equity for all relevant stakeholders;
•
Aquaculture should be developed in the context of
other sectors, policies and goals.
Soto, 2010
EAA: ecosystem balance, social equity, multiple uses
Different types of carrying capacity
for aquaculture
US, Europe,
Canada
Types of carrying
capacity
Production
Southeast Asia,
China
Limiting
factor
Ecological
Governance
Limiting
factor
Social
Different parts of the world see carrying capacity in very different ways
From technologies to tools
Example: Stage 1. Circulation model – connected systems
• Larval dispersal;
•Diesease;
•Xenobiotics.
Belfast
Lough
Strangford
Lough
Northern
Ireland
Republic
of Ireland
Irish
Sea
Carlingford
Lough
Case study – AkvaVis expert system
• Applied for mussel and finfish
farming
• Three modules share the same
databases but apply information
for different purposes
• Siting module identifies
potential farm sites, simulates
carrying capacity
• Management module compiles
information needed by the
authorities for aquaculture
management
• Application module promotes
efficient application and ensures
that all relevant information is
provided
Norwegian fjords, site selection
Ervik A, Døskeland I, Hageberg A.A., Strand, Ø., and Hansen P.K. in prep. Virtual
decision support tool (AkvaVis) for integrated planning and management in aquaculture.
Puget Sound – NW United States
Samish Island Manila clam farm at low tide
(it is under 8-10 feet of water at high tide)
3 year crop cycle, annual production ~35-45 mt
Simulation of clam live weight with Samish
Island environmental drivers
Negative scope for growth in winter
30
Live weight (g)
25
20
15
Aquashell model
2009 plant - preharvest June
2010 seed
2011 seed
10
5
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Julian Day
The AquaShell model shows a good fit to project data for live weight.
1400
Manila clam growth model (AquaShell)
Mass balance
Simulation of Manila clam growth using Samish Island drivers provides outputs on
production and environmental effects. These are then scaled to the culture area.
Puget Sound, USA
Manila clam harvest at Samish Island
Mechanical harvest + year class strips + imagination = profitable business.
FARM model
Application to Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA)
Use of the FARM model for shellfish or finfish monoculture, and IMTA.
Ferreira et al., 2012. Cultivation of gilthead bream in monoculture and integrated multi-trophic aquaculture. Analysis of
production and environmental effects by means of the FARM model. Aquaculture 358-359, p. 23-34.
Samish Island Manila clam farm
FARM model simulation for nutrient trading
At a cultivation density of 70 animals per sq ft. clams provide an annual
ecosystem service equivalent to over 1000 people in reducing eutrophication.
Marginal analysis
TPP (tonnes)
300
APP
MPP
50
280
40
260
240
30
Present
seeding
220
200
20
180
VMP = MPP.Po
VMP = Pi
MPP = Pi/Po
160
10
Optimal MPP = 7.84
140
0
Pi = 40 USD
Po = 5.1 USD
120
APP and MPP (no units)
Harvestable biomass (tonnes live weight)
FARM model – application to Samish Island Manila clam farm
9.5 tonnes of seed
100
-10
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Seed (tonnes)
Simulated harvest in the FARM model is 48 tonnes per year (declared 35-45 tonnes)..
The Samish Island farm appears to be well below carrying capacity, with respect to food
supply. However, at the current stocking density, high mortality is already a problem.
Crabs and clams from 1 ft2
Clams eaten by crab
Interaction of aquaculture with other ocean activities
•
Competition for space: in the EU and US,
shorefront use is a critical limitation;
•
Social concerns re: visibility, both of culture sites
at sea and processing plants on land;
•
Environmental and genetic pollution, escapes,
disease;
EU COEXIST project (http://coexistproject.eu/)
•
European scale - example case studies: Hardangerfjord,
southern North Sea, Adriatic Sea, SE Portugal;
•
Interaction matrices – among uses, interaction types;
•
Reconciling offshore activities – e.g. mussel farms in wind
parks;
•
Reducing the environmental footprint: Integrated multitrophic aquaculture (IMTA).
GIS models, system scale – CoExist project (vTI, Germany)
Marine spatial planning for optimization of coastal uses
German Shrimp fisheries
Dutch mixed flatfish fisheries
>300PS, BEAM>80mm
>300PS, BEAM>80mm
Effort (hours per year)
Bird Directive
FFH EEZ
FFH coastal waters
Planned
Under construction
Approved
Running
Declined
EEZ
Marine spatial planning and environment. Water moves, animals move
Offshore aquaculture
Current speeds: 0.1-1 m s-1, suitable depth range for cages and longlines
123 countries with at least 100 km2 that meet these criteria: 106 - 107 ton y-1
Kapetsky et al., 2010. FAO
Workshop, Rome, 2010.
http://ecowin.org
Combination of offshore windfarms
and aquaculture
Potential use of wind turbines and enclosed space for
cultivating finfish, shellfish, and seaweeds
The FORWARD project
POLIS Ria Formosa
Faça download do livro COEXIST/FORWARD em http://goodclam.org/forwardpt/
Download the COEXIST/FORWARD book at http://goodclam.org/forward/
FORWARD and COEXIST modelling framework
Terrestrial boundary
conditions
Different models for different questions. Scales are from minutes to decades.
Overview
Catchment: Nutrient Load
WWTP (project pop) N exports (kg/ha.yr)
Nitrogen:
• WWTPs: 590 ton N/yr
• Diffuse sources: 560 ton N/yr
Phosphorus:
• WWTPs: 85 ton P/yr
• Diffuse sources: 180 ton P/yr
Connectivity: Offshore- Ria Formosa (circulation model)
Tidal circulation in the Ria Formosa, Algarve. Water residence time of 1-2 days.
EcoWin2000 system-scale model – spatial framework
The system is divided into 34 boxes, two vertical layers. Boxes were defined
using GIS based on uses, legislation, water quality, and hydrodynamics.
EcoWin2000 model – system-scale clam production
Declared harvest: 2000 t y-1
Actual harvest: >5000 t y-1
E2K model: 2300-6700 t y-1
Revenue: 20-50 million € y-1
Direct jobs: 4000-5000
System-scale carrying capacity is spatially variable, depends on ocean connections.
Goods and services from bivalves
Water
fluxes
12
11 24
10
9 22 23 36
8
35 48
7 20 21 34
6
33 46 47 60
5 18 19 32
59
45
4
31
3 16 17 30 43 44 57 58
2
29
1 14 15 28 41 42 55 56
54
13 26 27 40
53
39
25 38
52
Water fluxes
37 50 51
49
• Removal of organic waste
from finfish aquaculture
• Detrital organic material
enhances shellfish growth
• Bivalves may act as a firewall
to prevent disease spread
Up to 70% finfish
At least 30% bivalves
Several large areas in the Algarve are currently designated for
offshore aquaculture
Mass balance for gilthead cultivation
Weight: 350 g, AquaFish model
Energy
assimilated
385 kcal
Anabolism: 1471 kcal
BMR: 277 kcal
SDA: 809 kcal
Swimming: 0.2 kcal
Food
ingestion
449 g DW
Feed
supplied
463 g DW
Cultivation:414 days
Current: 10 cm s-1
Biomass: 350 g FW
Length: 29 cm
FCR: 1.3
ADC (N): 82%
Respiration
0.78 kg O2
Feed
loss
14 g DW
Digestion in
the gut
Organic
pollution
140 g DW
Faeces
126 g DW
Urine
7.4 g NH4
Inorganic
pollution
7.4 g NH4
FARM model for culture of finfish
AquaFish model – gilthead bream (Sparus aurata)
Mass balance for gilthead pond culture – models are important for optimization
Ferreira et al, 2012. Aquaculture 358–359 (2012) 23–34.
POM (percentile 90 mg l-1)
Positive externalities
of shellfish culture
Only mussels
No aquaculture
3,61
3,58
3,55
3,52
3,49
3,46
3,61
3,58
3,55
3,52
3,49
3,46
5
4
3
2
POM (percentile 90 mg
l-1)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10
11 12
5
3.58-3.61
3.55-3.58
3.52-3.55
3.49-3.52
3.46-3.49
IMTA: mussels + fish
4
3
2
2
1
3
4
5
6
7
8
11
9 10
Only fish
3,61
3,58
3,55
3,52
3,49
3,46
3,61
3,58
3,55
3,52
3,49
3,46
5
4
3
2
11
12
3
5
7
9
11
5
4
3
2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10
11 12
EcoWin2000 - Simulated change in clam harvest due to
offshore aquaculture of mussels
An annual loss of 120 t of clams (1.2 million €) is offset by 13,000 t of mussels
The FORWARD and COEXIST projects - Carrying capacity
Social aspects and governance - The other 50%…
• Even if you solve 50% of the problem, you still need to resolve
the other half
• Social aspects and governance cannot be modelled, but are
very important
• Examples: moving animals among regions can spread disease;
small leases can conflict with each other; governance issues
over the use of machines; obstacles to certification
• Lots of plans, no practical results – respecting multiple uses
(third principle of EAA): the Paper Park syndrome
• Good governance is a major element of success
Mathematical models can address part of the issues, but that
still leaves the rest...
Virus Particle tracking:
Parallel (m)
Ratio between concentrations at XYZ and emission concentration
APPAA
Disease
source
5 km
Meridian (m)
• Disease source:
APPAA
• Virus
concentration:
Up to 2x106 ml-1
• Forcing functions
wind and tide
• No decay
• 6 day model run
• Release in midwater layer
Background virus release the first 2 days, high release on days 3,4
and 5, then a reduction by a factor of a hundred on the last day.
Virus exposure
90
Exposure (h)
Parallel (m)
APPAA
Disease
source
20 km
0
Meridian (m)
Number of hours of exposure to 0.5% of the shedding
concentration as a measure of potential infection.
The revenge of the killer mussels…
Huge mussel fouling in the summer of 2012. Spat from offshore culture?
The revenge of the killer mussels – part II
February 19th 2013: mussel
fouling on untreated fish
culture nets. The nets sank
under the weight of mussels.
The four orders of coastal governance outcomes
National
Regional
Local
Intermediate
outcomes
Final
outcomes
First order:
Enabling
conditions
Second order:
Changes in
behaviour
Third order:
The harvest
Fourth order:
Sustainable
coastal
development
Formalized
mandate with
implementing
authority
Changes in
behaviour of
institutions and
stakeholder groups
Management
plans adopted
Changes in
behaviours directly
affecting resources
of concern
Some social
and/or
environmental
qualities
maintained,
restored,
or improved
A desirable and
dynamic balance
between social
and environmental
conditions is
achieved
Funding secured
Constituencies
present at local
and national levels
Investments in
infrastructure
Time
Avoiding the ‘paper park’ syndrome (from Olsen, 2003)
Conclusões
•
•
•
•
•
http://goodclam.org/apa
Portugal precisa de mais aquacultura, mas uma boa parte
terá que ser desenvolvida nos grandes estuários, e.g. Tejo e
Sado;
A nossa costa ocidental é muito agitada – o cultivo vai ser
caro e dificil em termos logísticos. A costa sul é melhor mas
há mais conflitos de usos;
Temos que decidir quais as espécies, quais as zonas, e qual
o mercado, senão temos a fábula do bacalhau e da panga;
Para competir no mercado de peixe, temos que fazer o
‘branding’, a certificação, e definir classes intermédias de
produto. E aproveitar a boa imagem do pescado nacional;
Estamos longe da realidade: é preciso fazer mar, e não só
falar mar―não foi assim que chegámos à India.
Leia o livro! http://goodclam.org/forwardpt/
Read the book! http://goodclam.org/forward/
Resilience…