Read the Risks analysis of TIGF

DIRECTION DEVELOPPEMENT COMMERCE
Département Tarification Economie Régulation
Pau, 20 June 2013
DDC- 13-0138
Contractual situation and capacity utilisation analysis
at TIGF’s interconnection points
1- Context
th
The European Commission adopted on 24 August 2012 a decision amending point 2.2 of Annex I of
Regulation (CE) n° 715/2009 on conditions for access to the natural gas transmission networks relating to
congestion management procedures in the event of contractual congestion. The CMP Annex introduces
four mechanisms aimed at avoiding situations of contractual congestion:
•
Oversubscription and buy-back scheme
•
Surrender of contacted capacity
•
UIOLI Long term
•
Firm day-ahead UIOLI
The oversubscription and buy-back scheme is aimed to offer additional capacities beyond the technical
capacity at an interconnection point on a firm basis. To calculate these additional capacities, the CMP
Annex specifies that: “In determining the additional capacity, the transmission system operator shall take
into account statistical scenarios for the likely amount of physically unused capacity at any given time at
interconnection points. It shall also take into account a risk profile for offering additional capacity which does
not lead to excessive buy- back obligation. The oversubscription and buy-back scheme shall also estimate
the likelihood and the costs of buying back capacity on the market and reflect this in the amount of
additional capacity to be made available.”
In the Public Consultation on the implementation of the CMP Annex, CRE considers that the implementation
of the oversubscription and buy-back scheme should be based on a risk analysis for each IP and for each
type of capacity product. On all the points characterised by physical congestion and thus, by a high risk of
buying back the capacity, the financial risk borne by the TSO could be very high comparing to the benefits
of using this mechanism. This risk analysis should be part of a dynamic process and updated regularly.
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Finally, CRE indicates that the application of this mechanism on 1 October 2013 will be based on the
specific study to be carried out by the TSOs in June 2013 on each concerned IP (PIR Midi, Larrau and
Biriatou in the case of TIGF).
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This document aims to determine the contractual and physical congestion situation at the interconnection
points of the TIGF network. This analysis will allow deciding whether it is pertinent or not the implementation
of the oversubscription and buy-back mechanism at the concerned IPs.
2- Introduction
It needs to be highlighted that since 2005 many different actions have been taken to limit congestion in the
TSOs networks in France. New infrastructure aimed to increase entry and exit capacities has been
developed. The UIOLI mechanism for the commercialization of unused subscribed capacity was
incorporated into the transport contract. The implementation of the UBI mechanism allowing shippers to
subscribe unsold daily capacities as well as not nominated subscribed capacities. All these measures will
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be completed with the capacity surrender mechanism as from 1 October 2013. In this context, the
implementation of an additional mechanism to avoid contractual congestion such as oversubscription and
buy-back must be carefully studied in order to avoid an unneeded or financially risky application.
The oversubscription and buy-back mechanism is effective only in situations of contractual congestion
without the appearance of physical congestion. In cases where the physical flows reach frequently the
technical capacity, the allocation of additional capacity could lead to a too high financial risk for the TSO
caused by excessive amounts of buy-back.
In the following points of the document the subscription and utilisation levels of the marketable capacities
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over the last two years are studied (from 1 April 2011 to 31 March 2013) as well as the evolution of the
technical capacity in the next years. The following TIGF interconnection points are analysed: PITT GRTGAZ
SUD, PITT LARRAU and PITT BIRATOU.
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3- PITT GRTGAZ SUD
The interconnection point between the TIGF and GRTgaz Sud zones does not present a situation of
contractual congestion during the analysed period. The subscription level exceeds 80% of the marketable
capacity only during the summer season for Entry capacities. The rest of the time and as regards Exit
capacities to GRTgazSud, subscriptions are around 50% of the marketable capacity.
Physical flows in this point do not allow identifying a situation of frequent physical congestion. There are
only 10 days a year where the physical flows exceed 90% of the technical capacity.
It should be noted that, according to the results of the 2013 Open Season, infrastructure developments
have been conducted on the network increasing the Entry capacity to 510 GWh/d in summer and to 375
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GWh/d in winter as from 1 April 2013. The level of marketable Exit capacity was multiplied by 3 (from 80
GWh/d to 255 GWh/d). This recent increase of the technical capacities does not enable having sufficient
perspective and a clear view of the level of use of the infrastructure for the next year. In addition, the
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marketing of capacities at the interconnection with GRTgaz will be stopped on 1 April 2015 with the
establishment of the common PEG.
Therefore, the implementation of the oversubscription and buy-back mechanism at the PITT GRTGAZ SUD
would be unnecessary and useless.
Firm Entry marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTE GRTGAZ SUD
400 000
350 000
MWh/j à 0°C
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
Capacité ferme commercialisable
Capacité ferme souscrite A/S
Capacité ferme souscrite M
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Firm Exit marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTL GRTGAZ SUD
90 000
80 000
70 000
MWh/j à 0°C
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Capacité ferme commercialisable
Capacité ferme souscrite A/S
Capacité ferme souscrite M
Interruptible Entry marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTE GRTGAZ SUD
20 000
MWh/j à 0°C
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
Capacité interruptible commercialisable
Capacité interruptible souscrite A/S
Capacité interruptible souscrite M
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Marketable capacities / physical flows
MWh/j à 25°C
PITT GRTGAZ SUD
400 000
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
-50 000
-100 000
-150 000
Capacité commercialisable Entrée Ferme
Capacité commercialisable Sortie Ferme
Capacité commercialisable Entrée Interruptible
Flux physiques
Physical congestion occurrence - Entry
PITTE GRTGAZ SUD
20
18
16
Ocurrence en jours
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1%
6%
11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 41% 46% 51% 56% 61% 66% 71% 76% 81% 87% 93% 99%
% de utilisation physique
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Physical congestion occurrence - Exit
PITTL GRTGAZ SUD
2,5
Ocurrence en jours
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
% de utilisation physique
Evolution of marketable capacities
510 000
460 000
410 000
360 000
310 000
260 000
210 000
160 000
110 000
60 000
10 000
-40 000
-90 000
-140 000
-190 000
-240 000
-290 000
+ 43% été
+ 15% hiver
+ 320%
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décembre-11
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mars-12
avril-12
mai-12
juin-12
juillet-12
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septembre-12
octobre-12
novembre-12
décembre-12
janvier-13
février-13
mars-13
avril-13
mai-13
juin-13
juillet-13
août-13
septembre-13
octobre-13
novembre-13
décembre-13
janvier-14
février-14
mars-14
avril-14
MWh/j à 0°C
PITT GRTGAZ SUD
Capacité ferme commercialisable - Entrée
Capacité ferme commercialisable - Sortie
Capacité interruptible commercialisable - Entrée
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4- PITT LARRAU
The Larrau France-Spain interconnection point presented a high level of contractual congestion during the
analised period. Subscriptions were most of the time close to 100% of the marketable capacity between
2011 and 2013.
Regarding the physical flows, only flows to Spain have been observed in the last two years. The analysed
data shows a situation of recurrent physical congestion with a high level of congestion. Physical flows
overrun technical capacity more than 50% of the analysed days.
As in the case of the interconnection with GRTgaz, as a result of the 2013 Open Season, capacities at PITT
LARRAU were increased significantly. Entry capacity was multiplied by 3 and exit capacity has been
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increased by 65% as from 1 April 2013.
As part of the implementation of the CAM network code, in 2014 capacity marketing at the Spanish border
will be carried out through auctions on PRISMA platform. Capacity will be auctioned at a virtual
interconnection point (VIP) to be created early 2014. This virtual interconnection point will include
marketable capacity at PITT LARRAU and PITT BIRIATOU.
This new capacity marketing methodology with higher levels of marketable capacity (combining the two
interconnection points) together with the technical capacity increase at Larrau from 2013 make impossible
the elaboration of a reliable statistical analysis. Moreover, this does not allow the elaboration of a solid
forecast of shippers’ behavior and capacity utilisation levels.
For the above stated reasons, TIGF considers that in the current situation the implementation of the
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oversubscription and buy-back mechanism on 1 October 2013 at the France-Spain border would expose
the TSO to a too high financial risk as a result of the uncertainty of the buy-back requirements.
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The implementation of this mechanism as from 1 October 2014 will be reviewed in the contractual and
physical congestion annual analysis to be conducted in June 2014.
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Firm Entry marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTE LARRAU
60 000
50 000
MWh/j à 0°C
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Capacité ferme commercialisable
Capacité ferme souscrite A/S
Capacité ferme souscrite M
Firm Exit marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTL LARRAU
100 000
MWh/j à 0°C
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
0
Capacité ferme commercialisable
Capacité ferme souscrite A/S
Capacité ferme souscrite M
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Interruptible Entry marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTE LARRAU
50 000
MWh/j à 0°C
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Capacité interruptible commercialisable
Capacité interruptible souscrite A/S
Capacité interruptible souscrite M
Marketable capacities / physical flows
MWh/j à 25°C
PITT LARRAU
100 000
80 000
60 000
40 000
20 000
-20 000
-40 000
-60 000
-80 000
-100 000
-120 000
Capacité commercialisable Entrée Ferme
Capacité commercialisable Sortie Ferme
Capacité commercialisable Entrée Interruptible
Flux physiques
Note: The technical capacity overruns observed can be explained by the physical operational management of interconnections with
Spain, particularly in the context of a specific agreement with the adjacent operator (OBA).
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Physical congestion occurrence - Entry
There was no physical flow at PITT LARRAU during the analysed period.
Physical congestion occurrence - Exit
PITTL LARRAU
60
Ocurrence en jours
50
40
30
20
10
0
0%
5%
34%
39%
44%
49%
55%
60%
67%
73%
78%
83%
88%
93%
98%
103%
108%
% de utilisation physique
Evolution of marketable capacities
PITT LARRAU
165 000
135 000
+ 330 %
105 000
45 000
15 000
-15 000
-45 000
-75 000
-105 000
+ 65%
-135 000
-165 000
avril-11
mai-11
juin-11
juillet-11
août-11
septembre-11
octobre-11
novembre-11
décembre-11
janvier-12
février-12
mars-12
avril-12
mai-12
juin-12
juillet-12
août-12
septembre-12
octobre-12
novembre-12
décembre-12
janvier-13
février-13
mars-13
avril-13
mai-13
juin-13
juillet-13
août-13
septembre-13
octobre-13
novembre-13
décembre-13
janvier-14
février-14
mars-14
avril-14
MWh/j à 0°C
75 000
Capacité ferme commercialisable - Entrée
Capacité ferme commercialisable - Sortie
Capacité interruptible commercialisable - Entrée
10/15
5- PITT BIRIATOU
The Biriatou France-Spain interconnection point presents no contractual congestion since winter 2011 in the
Spain-France flow direction. As regards Exit capacities, only firm capacities are sold in summer seasons. In
the summer 2012 all marketable capacities were subscribed.
Physical flows observed demonstrate the absence of physical congestion for exit capacities even if capacity
utilisation is much larger than entry capacity. On the other hand, in the Spain-France flow direction, the
physical flows exceeded 90% of the technical capacity more than 10% of the time.
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Capacity at PITT BIRIATOU will also be developed as a result of the 2015 Open Season. As from 1
December 2015 entry capacity will be increased to 65 GWh/d in summer and 60 GWh/d in winter. An offer
of exit interruptible capacity will be added to the currently proposed firm capacity bringing the total capacity
level to 60 GWh/d.
As explained for the PITT LARRAU, marketing of capacities at PITT BIRIATOU in 2014 will be done through
auctions on a VIP gathering Larrau and Biriatou capacities.
This new capacity marketing methodology with higher levels of marketable capacity (combining the two
interconnection points) together with the technical capacity increase at Larrau from 2013 make impossible
the elaboration of a reliable statistical analysis. Moreover, this does not allow the elaboration of a solid
forecast of shippers’ behavior and capacity utilisation levels.
For the above stated reasons, TIGF considers that in the current situation the implementation of the
st
oversubscription and buy-back mechanism on 1 October 2013 at the France-Spain border would expose
the TSO to a too high financial risk as a result of the uncertainty of the buy-back requirements.
st
The implementation of this mechanism as from 1 October 2014 will be reviewed in the contractual and
physical congestion annual analysis to be conducted in June 2014.
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Firm Entry marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTE BIRIATOU
6 000
5 000
MWh/j à 0°C
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
Capacité ferme commercialisable
Capacité ferme souscrite A/S
Capacité ferme souscrite M
Firm Exit marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTL BIRIATOU
12 000
10 000
MWh/j à 0°C
8 000
6 000
4 000
2 000
0
Capacité ferme commercialisable
Capacité ferme souscrite A/S
Capacité ferme souscrite M
12/15
Interruptible Exit marketable and subscribed capacities
PITTL BIRIATOU
5 000
MWh/j à 0°C
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
Capacité interruptible commercialisable
Capacité interruptible souscrite A/S
Capacité interruptible souscrite M
Marketable capacities / physical flows
MWh/j à 25°C
PITT BIRIATOU
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
-1 000
-2 000
-3 000
-4 000
-5 000
-6 000
-7 000
-8 000
-9 000
-10 000
-11 000
Capacité commercialisable Entrée Ferme
Capacité commercialisable Sortie Interruptible
Capacité commercialisable Sortie Ferme
Flux physiques
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Physical congestion occurrence - Entry
PITTE BIRIATOU
16
14
Ocurrence en jours
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1%
6%
11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 41% 46% 51% 56% 61% 66% 71% 76% 81% 86% 91% 96%
% de utilisation physique
Physical congestion occurrence - Exit
PITTL BIRIATOU
12
Ocurrence en jours
10
8
6
4
2
0
1%
19%
26%
31%
36%
41%
46%
51%
56%
61%
68%
74%
85%
100%
% de utilisation physique
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Evolution of marketable capacities
65 000
55 000
45 000
35 000
25 000
15 000
5 000
-5 000
-15 000
-25 000
-35 000
-45 000
-55 000
-65 000
Capacité ferme commercialisable - Sortie
février-17
octobre-16
décembre-16
juin-16
août-16
avril-16
février-16
octobre-15
décembre-15
juin-15
août-15
avril-15
février-15
octobre-14
décembre-14
juin-14
août-14
avril-14
février-14
octobre-13
décembre-13
juin-13
août-13
avril-13
février-13
octobre-12
Capacité ferme commercialisable - Entrée
décembre-12
juin-12
août-12
avril-12
février-12
octobre-11
décembre-11
juin-11
août-11
+ 600 %
avril-11
MWh/j à 0°C
PITT BIRIATOU
Capacité interruptible commercialisable - Sortie
This English version is a non binding document – For the original document please refer to the French version.
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