European automotive outbound logistics sector: potential

Transcription

THE EUROPEAN OUTBOUND VEHICLE LOGISTICS SECTOR:
A WORTHY CASE FOR RECONSIDERATION
RECONSIDERATION.
Brussels – March 2010
The European vehicle logistics sector has been through dramatic times since the economic crisis took hold in the last quarter of 2008.
This is a sector that is almost exclusively designed and run for the purpose of moving vehicles from their place of production to the place of final sale across the globe.
Its ships, railway wagons, barges, road transporters, workshops and storage locations are dedicated to the fast and damage‐free handling of passenger and commercial vehicles. Its people are trained and employed for their specialist knowledge and experience. Their task is to ensure that the millions of vehicles that are transported across Europe each year are moved as efficiently as possible, to protect the brand values that their customers have so carefully created.
There is no question that the crisis has hit our business hard. ECG estimates that up to 20% of the transport capacity for new vehicles has been decommissioned or permanently destroyed as demand has plunged and companies have downsized savagely in order to survive. The sector has held the line, but it is still struggling for traction as the downturn continues.
p g
p
g y
gg g
What is more, the battle for survival has taken a toll of its financial reserves at exactly the moment when it should be investing for the future. ECG estimates that the sector needs to spend E4bn to E7bn over the short to medium term simply for asset renewal. Yet when we turn to the banking sector for financing, we find ourselves almost reflexively labelled a poor credit risk because of skepticism over the economic condition of the wider automotive industry and a lack of reliable information on our sector.
This report aims to correct that misperception, to demonstrate through hard data that this is a sector with sound foundations and a robust business model that is also flexible enough to p
q
y
y
g
pp
respond quickly and effectively in difficult times. I believe it also shows that, in terms of credit‐worthiness, the vehicle logistics sector deserves to be reappraised on its own merits.
The European Commission has pointed out many times through this economic crisis that transport is of paramount importance for European development. Logistics, meanwhile, is the physical backbone of today’s economy and as such it has an enormous impact on the economic development and cohesion of the European Union.
As the debate on Europe’s transport future reaches a critical moment, it becomes ever clearer that plotting a healthy way forward for the outbound vehicle logistics sector also touches on key issues of public policy. It is about creating jobs in this sector and beyond. It is about using technology to create efficiencies. And it is about reducing emissions as part of a drive towards a more sustainable transport system.
p
y
European automotive production and sales will recover as the global crisis recedes. But as demand picks up, the manufacturers will have an urgent need for new transport equipment to handle their surging distribution requirements. There are no possible substitutes: these dedicated assets have to be built specifically for vehicle transport. In the case of ships, from initial order to first deployment can take up to three years and cost tens of millions of euros.
We need to make these investments for ourselves, for our customers, and for Europe as a whole. The ability of the manufacturers to exploit an eventual upturn will depend, at least in part, o t e ab ty to get e c es o t e p a ts to t e custo e s as qu c y a d e c e t y as poss b e, a d t
on their ability to get vehicles from their plants to their customers as quickly and efficiently as possible, and with minimal impact on the environment. But as vehicle logistics providers, our a
pact o t e e
o e t ut as e c e og st cs p o de s, ou
ability to do that will depend on access to finance, and ultimately on the willingness of the financial industry to take a fresh look at this vibrant and adaptable sector.
I urge you to study this detailed analysis and to reconsider your risk ratings so that Europe’s vehicle logistics operators can play their part in the economic recovery.
Finally, I would like to express my thanks to the team that has worked on the development of this document. In particular I would like to highlight and thank the Grimaldi Group who provided the time of its people on a Pro‐Bono base. It is the most detailed account ever prepared of the European vehicle logistics sector and the team worked many nights and weekends to complete it.
complete it.
Costantino Baldissara
President
1
Agenda
This document presents an overview of the European Vehicles Logistics
sector, together with forecasts for its development. It also includes a
comparative study of the European Automotive Industry.
Industry
Note: Information included in this document may be dated since relevant events may have occurred after its publication which might alter its accuracy
2
• Executive summary
• ECG - The Association of European Vehicle Logistics in brief
• European automotive market: overview
• European
E
automotive
t
ti outbound
tb
d llogistics
i ti market:
k t overview
i
• European automotive outbound logistics sector: potential
• Appendix:
• EU plus EFTA: New Vehicles historical registrations (1999 – 2009 by year & month)
• Main European Automotive Manufacturers financial performances (2008-2009)
• European Outbound Logistics Operators average financial performances (2008-2009)
3
Executive summary (1 of 11): The automotive industry has
experienced its strongest market decline since the early 1990s
Europe 281: Vehicle Registrations
1,8%
0,0%
in 000s
Credit crunch
The banking crisis
that started at the
end of 2007 stalled
economies:
• Consumers and
businesses
struggled to
access credit
20.000
20.000
18.000
16.000
8,0%
16.604
15.380
3 2%
3,2%
14.000
5,5%
-1,1%
17.525
3,7%
3,5%
0,0%
10,3%
3,8%
11,0%
10,7%
3,5%
10,7%
,
17.539
3,5%
10,5%
3,5%
0,1%
2,9%
4,5%
17.327 17.330
16.790
3,9%
10 0%
10,0%
-3,1%
18.048
18.060
3,7%
4,0%
11,2%
11,6%
-7,9%
2,0%
18.693
19.068
4,3%
4,1%
11,3%
11,8%
17.555
4,6%
Note: this growth rate is not
fully reliable because HCV/B
and
d LCV/B 2009 registration
i t ti
figures were available only for
the first 11 months
-7,6%
HCV/B
13.815
Actual YTD
0,44
1,29
11,4%
Actual
11monts
9,6%
LCV/MB
12.000
Actual YTD
10.000
8.000
There is no
precedent in the
automotive
industry for the
market
distortions
experienced
• The most
severe crisis
since WWII
87,2%
86,5%
86,0%
85,1%
85,5%
85,8%
86,0%
85,0%
84,5%
84,6%
83,9%
84,0%
Actual
11monts
14,49
Cars
6.000
.
Actual YTD
4.000
.
Actual 11monts
+ Provisional
ACEA for
December
2.000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
EU(15) + EFTA(3)
% changeYoY
2006
2007
2008 (1-E12)
2009
Artificially
y stable segment
g
(
(vs 08)
)
• in 2009 the car segment has
benefited from local government
support including car scrapping
schemes
Total EU25+EFTA(3)
CAGR 97-02
CAGR 97-02
CAGR 03-E08
1) Europe 28
EU253
EFTA34
EU152
Cyprus Part of the EU27
Malta
but not considered
by AAA-ACEA
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Source: ACEA, AAA, ECG
2) EU15: Member Countries in the EU prior to the accession of ten candidate Countries on 1 May 2004
3) EU25: After the 2004 enlargement
4) European Free Trade Association (EFTA)4 Members: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland
Bulgaria
Hungary
Czech Rep
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Iceland
Romania
Norway
Slovak Rep
Switzerland
Sl
Slovenia
i
HCV/B: Heavy Commercial Vehicles/Buses
LCV/MB: Light Commercial Vehicles/Mini buses
4
Cars
LCV/MB
Executive summary (2 of 11): Expected upside sale potential
for the Global and European automotive industry from 2010
Credit Suisse: Cars and LCV 2009-12 global sales forecast3
Key car demand drivers: expectations
Unit sales in mil.
2010 expectations
All
Private
Corporate
Cars
Cars
Cars
Credit
Scrap
Replacement
Consumer Replacement Mobility
confidence
demand
trends availability incentives
demand
60,0
50,0
Asia
N.
America
40,0
Based on
expectations
on key car
demand
drivers, car
sales can be
forecasted
W.Europe
S.
America
Russia
Other
E.Europe
2011-12 expectations
All
Private
Corporate
Cars
Cars
Cars
Credit
Scrap Replacement
confidence
demand
trends availability incentives demand
Asia
N. America
W.Europe
The market
is set to
rebound in
many
Countries,
though
mediumterm sales
trends are
likely to be
divergent
across
regions
S. America
Russia
Other
E.Europe
Source: ECG, ACEA, Credit Suisse
1) EU15: Member Countries in the EU prior to the accession of ten candidate
Countries on 1 May 2004
2)European Free Trade Association (EFTA) 4 Members: Iceland, Liechtenstein,
Norway and Switzerland
3)CS forecast combined car and LCV volume expectations while the 6 drivers
shown on the left side of this slide are mostly correlated with Car demand.
However, since ECG values CS as highly credible global research house,
(also taking in consideration that LCV volumes are marginal when compared
with cars) a decision to show the 2 vehicle typologies together has been
taken
30 0
30,0
61,8
2,8
3,0
4,1
15,4
15,9
1,1%
6,1%
70,0
8,4%
-11,1%
-14,6%
-43,3%
-14,8%
-1,4%
-23,4%
54,9
2,4
1,7
3,5
2 0%
2,0%
56,0
15,2
-7,4%
14,1
12,2
16,9%
14,2
20,0
0,5%
2,3
2,5
3,7
9,8%
2,1
2,1
3,5
-14,6%
23,5%
0,3%
60,7
16,7%
5,4%
14,9
5,9%
64,4
2,4
,
2,9
3,8
8 0%
8,0%
16,3%
2,2%
15,6
4,7%
-3,6%
-1
1,3%
3%
-2,1%
0,3%
Russia
15 9
15,9
12,3%
16,6
4 0%
4,0%
1,1%
0,0
20,6
-2,9%
S America
S.
Western Europe
20,0
10,0
Other E.Europe
20,1
21,5
7,0%
23,2
7,9%
3,0%
N. America
Asia
2008
2009E
2010E
% changeYoY
2011E
2012E
CAGR 08-12E
Credit Suisse: Cars and LCV 09-12 W.Europe1 sales forecast3
18,0
16,0
14,0
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
40
4,0
2,0
0,0
15,4
-1,4%
15,2
3,5
-12,1%
1,4
-20,3%
-11,8%
3,0
1,1
2,2
3,6%
2,6
-3,8%
2,3
-6,0%
2,2
-6,8%
3,3
24,6%
4,1
2,4
2,5
2008
-7,4%
0,6%
4,7%
15,6
5,0%
3,2
10,0%
3,5
0,5%
1,2
11,2%
3,1%
1,4
0,5%
2,2
5,4%
1,4
2,4
4,3%
2,5
0,2%
2,6
0,4%
2,4
0,1%
3,3
0,1%
3,1
11,6%
4,0%
5,9%
2,5
2,1%
2,6
0,0%
2,1
7,3%
2,2
,
6,8%
3,0
-26,8%
2009E
14,9
14 1
14,1
7,2%
2010E
3,2
2011E
2,9%
2012E
EU152
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
0,3%
Other W.Eur.
Spain
UK
France
Italy
Germany
1) Western European
EFTA33
France
Germany
Italy
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Iceland
Sweden
Norway
UK
Switzerland
5
HCV/B
Executive summary (3 of 11): Expected upside sales potential for
the Global and European automotive industry from 2010 (2 of 2)
Credit Suisse: HCV/B 2009-13 Global sales forecast
Key HCV/B demand
drivers: expectations
2009E
-5%
-10%
0
-30%
-12%
-35%
-12.4%
Asia
North
o
America
a
Western Europe
South America
Eastern Europe
Global
2010 expectations
Industrial Replacement
confidence
demand
Asia
N. America
2010E
-3%
15%
5
-5%
5%
-5%
-0.1%
2011E
6%
17%
3%
6%
5%
7.4%
Credit Suisse: HCV/B 2009
2009-13
13 W.Europe1 sales forecast
W.Europe
S. America
Russia
Other E.Europe
confidence
demand
Based on
expectations
on key HCV/B
demand
drivers, sales
can be
forecasted
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
350
-30,0%
2008
-5,3%
9,6%
3,4%
245
232
2009E
2010E
10,6%
263
240
2011E
CAGR 08-13E
% changeYoY
291
-3,6%
2012E
2013E
1) Western European
EU152
Austria
Asia
Belgium
Denmark
N. America
Finland
EFTA33
France
Germany
Italy
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
L
Luxembourg
b
Spain
Iceland
Sweden
Norway
UK
Switzerland
W.Europe
S. America
Russia
Other E.Europe
3)NAFTA: Canada, Mexico, United States
Credit Suisse: HCV/B 2009-13 NAFTA2 sales forecast
Unit sales
in ‘000
600
500
400
300
7,1%
5,4%
15,7%
384
-10,4%
344
16,8%
398
465
490
CAGR 08-13E
% changeYoY
525
6,5%
6,5%
200
100
0
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
6
Executive summary (4 of 11): The European Automotive Outbound
Logistics Sector is part of the Automotive Industry
The Finished Vehicle Logistics Sector as relevant part of the Automotive Industry
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector exclusively supplies both transport and
i d
industrial
i l services
i
to Automotive
i
Manufacturers
f
using
i
assets that
h are specifically
ifi ll d
designed
i
d to
transport or store vehicles and that cannot be employed for any other use
Main modes of transport used in
O tb
Outbound
d Automotive
A t
ti
Logistics
L i ti
.
I
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
II
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
III
IV
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. Heavy
Trucks
.
on Roads
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . . .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
Barges on
Ri
Rivers
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
Specialized
Train
Wagons on
Rail
.
.
.
Specialized
Ships on
Sea
Main Storage facilities used in Outbound Automotive Logistics
V
1) Port Terminals
2) Inland Compounds
(not facing the sea)
Located in strategic locations for easy
distribution to final customers
..
.
...
Fully
y Multimodal
Port Terminal
. .
.. ..
... ...
. .
... ...
..
..
...
. .
.. ..
... ...
. .
... ...
... ...
.. ..
.. ..
. .
.. ..
... ...
. .
... ...
... ...
.. ..
.. ..
. .
.. ..
... ...
. .
... ...
... ...
.. ..
.. ..
. .
.. ..
... ...
. .
... ...
... ...
.. ..
.. ..
.
..
...
.
... .. ..
... ... ...
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
..
..
.
..
..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
...
..
..
.
..
...
...
..
..
..
.
..
...
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
River
Rail
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
..
..
.
.
.
.
.
..
.
...
..
..
.
..
..
.
. .
..
..
.
..
..
.
. . . . .
. .
.
.
Road
..
...
Sea
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector is part of the Automotive Industry
and consequently
q
y has suffered too but a positive
p
rebound is expected
p
from 2010
Source: ECG
7
Logistics Sector market segmentation and key market figures
European Outbound Automotive Logistics: key market
figures and segment breakdowns
ECG segmentation of the European Outbound Automotive
Logistics sector
Modes of transport used
in Outbound Automotive
Logistics
Pure Trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
Mostly
Ships
Ports &
Terminals
Pure barges
Multimodal
92
100,0%
90,0%
.
. .
. .
. .
. . . . .
. .
.
.
I
I
I
I
I
70,0%
6,5%
(6)
60,0%
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
II
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
43,7%
.
9,8%
(9)
II
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
III
.
III
Trucks & Ports
7,5%
44,6%
(41)
20,0%
Barges on Rivers
11,5%
Pure trucks
11,9%
7,0%
23,4%
10,0%
Mostly Ships
Trucks & Wagons
6,7%
III
Ports & Terminals
23,4%
26,1%
32,0%
30,0%
Multimodal
Pure barges
0,04%
0,4%
40,0%
Specialized Wagons on Rail
0,3%
2,4%
0,06%
1 0%
1,0%
9,8%
(9)
50,0%
63.067.454
31,3%
35,2%
2,2%(2)
5,4% (5)
Heavy Trucks on Roads
II
€13,1Mil
21,7%
(20)
80,0%
I
63.355
5,6%
19,3%
11,2%
IV
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
..
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
..
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. . . . . .
. . . . .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
..
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
IV
.
IV
Specialized Ships on Sea
..
.
...
V
. . . . . . . . . . .
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ..
. . . . . . . . . . . .
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. ..
. .
... .. ..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
... ..
.. ..
..
...
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
...
..
...
..
..
...
..
.
...
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
...
..
Number of ECG Employees
member
from ECG
companies in survey 2008
2009
(data 2007)
.
..
..
Total turnover
from ECG
survey 2008
Total vehicles
processed from
ECG survey
2008
(Data 2007)
.
.
.
.
.
0,0%
. ..
.. ..
.. .
. ..
.. .
.. ..
. .
. .
. ..
.. .
.. ..
. .
..
...
...
..
. . . . .
. .
.
.
...
..
V
V
V
V
Data from ECG members can be considered representative of the Continental
Europe Outbound Automotive Logistics market
• ECG Members volumes represent approximately 80% of the new vehicles
processed by the entire European Finished Vehicles Logistics industry
Ports and terminals
When ships are mostly owned and not
chartered and represent the relevant fixed
assets of the company they are classified as
“Mostly ships”
ECG M
Members
b
classified
l
ifi d iin thi
this segmentt are:
Wallenius
Wilhelmsen Logistics
(2wglobal.com)
Grimaldi Group
(grimaldi.napoli.it)
Source: ECG
Finnlines
(finnlines.com)
Höegh Autoliners
(hoegh.com)
When a different mix of transport and warehousing assets are used to
satisfy the logistics need of clients and there is not a great prevalence
of one mode over another then the firm is considered Multimodal
Examples of ECG Members classified in this segment are:
GEFCO
(gefco.net)
Síntax Logística
(sintax.com)
Volvo Group Belgium
(volvo.com/logistics/global/
en-gb/services)
Groupe CAT
(groupecat.com)
Horst Mosolf
(mosolf.de)
Bertani Trasporti
(bertanitrasporti.it)
8
Logistics Sector key market figures by region and by country
figures and country breakdowns
(from ECG 08 survey with 07 data)
ECG 2009 Members: national and regional
breakdown
100 0%
100,0%
Austria
Members:
4
Belgium
Members:
2
Finland
Members:
4
Members:
6
France
Germany Members:
1
0
Greece
Members:
3
Ireland
Members:
2
Italy
Members:
6
6,6%
ECG 2009 Members
regional breakdown
92
NonEU
10,9%
EFTA3
6,5%
EU15 (+ NewEU
= EU25 = 82,6%)
Members:
18 5%
18,5%
59
EU151
EU15
64,1%
90,0%
Note for the correct
understanding of the figures
g
box
shown in the right
Almost all ECG
members operate on
an international scale
Members:
7
Sweden
Members:
2
Members:
7
UK
Czech Rep Members: 2
Estonia
Members:
1
Lithuania
Members:
9
Romania
Members:
2
Slovenia
Members:
1
Poland
Members:
2
Norway
Members:
5
Switzerland Members: 1
Ukraine
Members:
1
Russia
Members:
6
Members:
3
Turkey
Members:
Members:
76
EU252
Members:
6
EFTA23
Members:
92
Country breakdowns
shown in the right box
on this slide include
consolidated data and
refer only to the country
of incorporation of the
ECG members
• Data shown on the
right
i ht d
does nott show
h
in
i
which countries the
different figures were
generated but only
where they are
consolidated
80 0%
80,0%
70,0%
€13,1Mil
0,2%
,
2,6%
0,4%
1,1%
0,0%
4,8%
5,7%
0,8%
2,6%
0,0%
Ukraine
United Kingdom Turkey
6 8%
6,8%
0,3%
8,6%
11,5%
Sweden
5,0%
0,1%
1,0%
0,8%
0,2%
2,4%
0,1%
0,9%
Spain
1,8%
16,7%
60,0%
,
14,7%
0,2%
0,9%
The Netherlands
Switzerland
10,4%
0,5%
Slovenia
Russian Federation
Romania
Poland
8,0%
50,0%
0,4%
0,5%
15,1%
0,4%
1,4%
Norway
Lithuania
Italy
40,0%
21,0%
22,4%
Ireland
Greece
30,0%
22,4%
Germany
France
Finland
12 9%
12,9%
NonEU
10,0%
Source: ECG
6,8%
0,1%
1,5%
0,1%
1 0%
1,0%
6,1%
Data from ECG members can be considered representative
of the Continental Europe Outbound Automotive Logistics
market
• ECG members volumes represent approximately 80% of
the new vehicles processed by the entire European
Finished Vehicles Logistics industry
63.067.454
0 1%
0,1%
6,8%
5,3%
20,0%
10
1,1%
2,7%
0,0%
5,1%
NetherlandsMembers: 6
Spain
63.355
0,8%
%
4,9%
0,0%
0,5%
1,6%
5,4%
0,0%
Employees
from ECG
survey 2008
(data 2007)
17,8%
0,0%
0,3%
8,7%
2,7%
Total turnover
Estonia
Czech Republic
3,1%
0,0%
0,4%
1,1%
3,8%
Total vehicles
processed
Belgium
Austria
9
Logistics Sector key market figures (1 of 2)
Breakdown of the total number of vehicles processed by segment and by sector (from ECG 08 survey with 07 data)
Total
number of
companies
Average number
of vehicles
processed per
company
92
Breakdown
by
segments
685.516
Breakdown
by
segments
44,6%
(41)
296.413
9,8%
(9)
835.000
9,8%
(9)
806.167
21,7%
(20)
6,5% 5,4% 2,2%
(2)
(5)
(6)
2.458.436
297.369
987.328
80.000
Pure trucks
Trucks & Ports
Trucks & Wagons
Mostly Ships
Total
vehicles
processed
p
Breakdown
by segments
63.067.454
Breakdown by
100%
national or
international
type of
90%
transport
100%
19,3%
11,9%
11,5%
23,4%
2,4% 03%
Ports & Terminals
31,3%
Pure barges
Multimodal
12.152.943
7.515.000
7.255.500
14.750.614
1.486.846
160.000
19.746.551
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Total number of
vehicles processed
33%
80%
51%
44%
51%
70%
Vehicles:
International
transportation (%)
Vehicles: National
transportation (%)
66%
60%
98%
50%
Breakdow
n N.A.
NA
Breakdow
n N.A.
NA
40%
67%
30%
49%
• Transport is on
a local or a
national scale
Big differences
appear when
segments are
analysed
• Multimodal
operators
process the
hi h t number
highest
b
of cars as a
segment
followed by
ships, and then
by mostly ships
and pure trucks
operators
• Mostly ships
p
stand
operators
out in term of
average number
of vehicles
processed per
company
56%
49%
20%
34%
10%
0%
European Outbound
Automotive Logistics
sector
2%
Pure trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
Mostly
Ships
Ports &
Terminals
Pure barges Multimodal
Source: ECG
10
Logistics Sector key market figures (2 of 2)
Breakdown of modes of transport by segment and by sector (from ECG 08 survey with 07 data)
41.127
0,4%
1,1%
,
0,1%
0,8%
100 0%
100,0%
7.817
146
464
42
337
90,0%
2.772
0,0%
1,5%
,
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
1
118
0
0
0
0,9%
1,9%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
13.031
25
54
0
0
422
14
13
17.058
0
0,0%
0,4%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
47
0
0
0
80,0%
9,2%
39
7,1%
30
0,0%
0
0
0
57,0%
49 6%
49,6%
60,0%
7698
50,0%
98,5%
2693
92,9%
7004
100,0%
Total number
of inland
compounds
Total number
of barges
13
76,5%
10.000 – 15.000
40,0%
Total number
off ships
hi
40.000 – 65.000
30,0%
Total number
of wagon
19.759
20,0%
48,0%
0
10,0%
0,0%
N.A. (very often
government
concessions)
N.A.
13
323
97,2%
Aprox value
(in /000€)
14
10650
81,7%
Number of
assets used
Total number of
port compounds /
port terminals
20.379
70,0%
0,4%
1,3%
0 2%
0,2%
0,1%
68
214
29
17,9%
Modes of transport or
wharehousing used
Pure
trucks
Trucks &
Ports
2334
Trucks &
Wagons
0,0%
7,1%
30
Mostly
Ships
7,1%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
,
0,0%
Ports &
Terminals
41,1%
9729
1
0
0
0
0
0,0%
0,0%
,
0,0%
0
Pure
barges
0
• In numerical
terms, trucks
and wagons
operated by
ECG members
dominate
• In terms of
market value
ships
dominate
followed by
barges
150
Total number
of trucks
0
170
Multimodal
Breakdowns of the Sqm available by segment and by sector (from ECG 08 survey with 07 data)
Sqm/000 63.000
59.615
859
Sqm/000 of
workshop 2007
53.000
Sqm/000 of
storage area 2007
43.000
33.000
23.000
20.806
247
58.756
10.096
210
9.887
13.000
3.000
Total square meters
available to ECG Members
Pure trucks
11.335
204
11.131
Trucks & Ports
5.635
106
5.529
Trucks & Wagons
9.082
49
9.034
Mostly Ships
2.661
45
2.616
Ports & Terminals
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Pure barges
20.560
• Sqm available
to ECG
members are
mostly for car
storage
Multimodal
Source: ECG
11
Logistics Sector key trends
Vehicle Manufacturers: key trends
• Development of a single car model for the
world market to reduce manufacturing costs
and optimize production efficiencies
• Production relocation to regions (mostly in
Eastern Europe or Asia) where the cost of
labour is lower than that of richer regions
(where most vehicle demand is still located)
• Need for manufacturers to quickly fulfill newer
consumers aspiration/fashion requirements
(mostly because of the increasing level of
competition in the global automotive market)
Consequent necessity:
o To
T produce
d
new car models
d l more often
f
then before (Shortening of individual
model life-cycle)
o To increase the degree of car
personalization
• Need to substantially cut lead times:
To satisfy the built-to-order1 concept
To keep the marketing promise related to
quick vehicle delivery times made by
dealers to final consumers
European Outbound Automotive Logistics industry: key trends
I
II
Ability
y to
reach
increasingly
more distant
markets
Traditional European
operators previously
operators,
concentrated on
western markets,
were forced to
develop new activities
in the east
Need to invest in
assets offering an
increasingly more
flexible transport
capacity:
p
y
• Capability of taking
onboard a larger
mix of
car/LCV/HCV
models
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
.
.
(Car Set up)
Flexible
assets
III
Delivery time reliability
and lead time accuracy
IV
Progressive necessity
to monitor and reduce
the pollution impact of
the logistics business
.
.
(LCV Set up)
(HCV Set up)
. .
. .
.
The European
Outbound
Automotive
Logistics
industry key
trends are
almost entirely
dependent on
related
Automotive
Industry key
trends
.
Source: ECG
1) Approach where a product is scheduled and built in response to a confirmed order received for it from a final customer
12
Logistics Sector has a different risk profile to the related Automotive Industry
The Finished Vehicle Logistics Sector has a different risk profile to the Automotive Industry
Driver
The European Automotive Manufactures Industry
Business
diversification
The European Automotive Manufactures Industry sells vehicles and financing to both
private and corporate clients:
• Private and corporate customer willingness to buy vehicles is highly correlated with the
economy, but it is more volatile
• Captive financial operations of Automotive Companies are highly correlated with the
economy
Active in different businesses segments, but final diversification is not high since all
segments are highly correlated with the economy
• Automotive troubles today do not stem from market trends, but from structural production
overcapacity
Demand
steadiness
• Manufacturers with longer production lead times are able to satisfy demand better by putting
a stock buffer in the supply chain
High volatility in new vehicle demand
Geographical
flexibility
The Automotive Industry is following a Glocal strategy, locating production where costs are
lower, pushing distribution where demand is rising, and customising based on local demand
The glocal strategy: be smart and act global but always think local
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector sells services to both new and
used vehicle industries:
• The new vehicle industry is highly correlated with the economy
• The used vehicle industry is correlated with the economy, but very stable and predictable
More predictability in sales volumes due to the mix of higher diversification
combined with final lower volatility
• Manufacturer overproduction generates a cycle of stocking and destocking at the plant that
results in more constant demand for a mix of transport and warehousing services
• Supply chain stock buffer created by manufacturers generates storage and post-production
demand that is not dependant on production volumes
More stability in Logistics Services demand
The vast majority of fixed assets used in Automotive Outbound Logistics are fixed only from an
auditing point of view. But in reality they are fully moveable where demand is growing (they
can be relocated from one day to another to or from anywhere in Europe (and for ships
anywhere globally)
More flexible in dynamic allocation of assets to new and more attractive routes
g vehicle p
production p
plants in Western Europe
p to emerging
g g markets
connecting
Automotive Industry has often faced political opposition to capacity closure and its assets can be Assets used in Automotive Outbound Logistics can be sold or disposed of with a positive
sold only in an M&A transaction
residual value
Assets
residual
value
In case of market downturn or change in strategic decisions, effective execution of
asset disposal or sale may be quite difficult
Profitability
vs Market
share
Financial
benchmark
Western European markets are quite mature and also highly competitive, while emerging
markets are less mature but still highly competitive
More flexible in terms of asset disposal or sale
Automotive Outbound Logistics operators do not work with exclusive agreements. They can
divert profitable services to where demand is healthier.
healthier
To gain market share, quite often profitability needs to be sacrificed
It is very likely that profitability and market share are positively correlated (eg.: their
values can move together and in the same direction)
Titans with robust financials but currently with a credit rating1 between a lower
medium grade and a speculative investment grade
Many times smaller, but with stronger financial metrics combined with financial P&L
flexibility and a constant lower debt to equity ratio
Source: ECG
1) S&P, Moodys and Fitch
13
Logistics Sector has a different risk profile to the related Automotive Industry
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector deserves a higher credit rating from Financial Institutions than that
given to the European Automotive Industry
The Finished Vehicle Logistics Sector is a relevant part of the Automotive Industry
Exclusively supplying services to Automotive Manufacturers using assets1 specifically designed to transport or store
vehicles and that cannot be employed for any other use
However the European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector is more diversified, stable and flexible than the related
Automotive Industry:
A) more predictability in sales volumes Å selling services to both new and used vehicle industries
B) more stable business Å due to:
1) the overproduction2 of the automotive manufacturers
2) outbound supply chain used as a stock buffer by manufacturer
C) more geographically flexible Å due to the opportunity to relocate asset1 where the demand is
D) more flexibility in asset disposal or sale Å main modes of transport1 can be easily sold or disposed of
E) profitability and market share are positively correlated Å operators do not work with exclusive agreements
F) smaller, more robust and financially flexible Å due to:
1) generally stronger financial metrics (profitability, efficiency and credit metrics)
2) more flexibility in the P&L due to an (on average) higher share of variable costs
3) generally private ownership combined with a constantly lower debt-to-equity ratio
The European
p
Automotive Outbound Logistics
g
Sector is more stable than the Automotive Industry
y but its significant
g
growth
g
potential may remain unrealised unless the banking system provides the necessary financing
ECG highlights how the European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector merits the confidence of
the International Banking Sector as it looks to fund new investments
Source: ECG
1) Road car transporters, specialized rail wagons, river barges and car-carrying ships
2) Stocking and destocking
14
• European automotive outbound logistics market: overview
• Appendix:
15
ECG - The Association of European Vehicle Logistics in
brief
ECG (European Association of Finished Vehicles Logistics Providers)
•
•
F
Founded
d d iin 1997 and
dh
headquartered
d
t
d iin B
Brussels
l (Belgium)
(B l i
)
Lobbying for the interests of associates operating in the field of outbound logistics
for the European Automotive Sector
92 members in 2009 incorporated in 23 Eurasian countries:
o Operating on a regional (road, rail, river and sea shipping) or a global scale (only
sea shipping)
o Aggregate turnover of more than €15,5Bil
o More than 63Mil vehicles processed
o More than 60.000 direct employees
o Different transportation assets operated by members:
▫ 13.000 owned trucks and 7.000 subcontracted
▫ 20.000 rail wagons
▫ 330 ships (owned and chartered)
▫ 40 river barges
▫ 146 port terminals and 460 inland compounds
▫ 58 million square metres of vehicle parks and 1mil square metres of
workshops
o Mostly offering multimodal transportation (deep sea, short sea, inland waterways,
rail and roads) and additional services:
▫ Storage in special compounds
▫ Quality control and damage inspection at the end of the assembly line
▫ Value added services (Pre-Delivery Inspections [PDI], de-waxing, body &
paint repair, customisation)
Source: ECG
16
In 2009 the Association of European Vehicle Logistics
is composed of 92 members based in 23 Countries
Verbrugge Terminals
(verbrugge.nl)
Broekman Group
(broekman-groep.nl)
Helf Automobil-Logistik
(helf-al.de)
Russia
Port
Port
Ships
Barges
Trucks
Wagons
Wagons
Port
Trucks
Trucks
RailTransAuto
(railtransauto.ru)
LLC Rolf Logistics
(rolf.ru)
Inter-Auto
(inter-auto.info)
ECM (Vehicle
Delivery Service)
(e m d o k)
(ecmvds.co.uk)
Gema-Trans
(gema.ru)
D F Services
(N.A.)
Turkey
AutoLogic Holdings
(autologic.co.uk)
in 2009
Members:
3
ME-PAR
(me-par.com)
Matrix Logistics
(ilce.com.tr)
1)
ATG Autotransportlogistics
(atglogistics.com)
6
RTL (Russian
Transport Lines)
(rtlgroup.ru)
Ontime Automotive
(ontime-auto.com)
Brockmüller Spedition
(central-asia.de)
Members:
OOO APPAREL – 2000
(apparel-ltd.ru)
Brit European
Transport
(briteuropean.com)
Part of
the EU15
but not in
Luxembourg
the ECG
1
Avtologistika Group
(avtologistika.com)
Hertransus
(hertransus.lt)
Portugal
Members:
Port
Bleiras
(bleiras.lt)
Ukraine
Porrt
Autoverslas
(autoverslas.lt)
Denmark
Ships
Barges
Port
Port
Part of
Bulgaria
Slovak Rep the EU25
but not in
Hungary
the ECG
Omnitrans
(N.A.)
HERTRANSUS
Wagons
Port
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Port
Trucks
Trucks
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Trucks
Port
Port
Port
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Trucks
Trucks
NonEU
AUTO1
(auto1.lt)
Manheim Defleet
Deutschland
(dentwizard.com)
Horst Mosolf
(mosolf.de)
Trucks
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Trucks
Port
Port
Port
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Trucks
Litaksa
(litaksa.com )
Michael Gröning
(groning.com)
Internationale Spedition
Willi Betz
(willibetz.de)
MAT Transport
(viamat.com)
Port
Interrijn
(interrijn.com)
Werner Egerland
(egerland.de)
Ships
Barges
Koopman Logistics
Group
(koopman.nl)
Terra Handels- und
Speditionsgesellschaft
(terra-spedition.de)
2
Shiips
Barrges
Port
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Trucks
10
BLG Automobile Logistics
(blg.de)
Members:
Auto Transport
Service
(autotransport.no)
Wagons
Lucas Logistics
Autotransport
p
(lucaslogistics.nl)
Groupe CAT
(groupecat.com)
Germany
Wagons
Ships
Barges
F. Elbert B.V.
(elbert.nl)
Köhler France
(kohlerfrance.eu)
Autolink
(autolink.as)
ucks
Tru
GEFCO
(gefco.net)
Wega
(wega-a.pl)
7
Höegh Autoliners
(hoegh.com)
Medway Ports
(medwayports.com)
Trucks
STVA
(stva.fr)
Seslita
(seslita.lt)
Spirit Autologistics
(spiritautolog.com)
SADA
(sadagroup.com)
TEA
(N.A.)
Poland
Adampol
(adampolsa.com.pl)
Members:
UECC (United
European Car
Carriers)
(hoegh.com)
AvtoTransporti Kastelec
(avtotransportikastelec.si)
Manvesta
(manvesta.com)
2
1
5
Ships
Barges
Walon France
(walon.fr)
i-FAST Automotive
Logistics
(i-fast.it)
9
Members:
Members:
Øivind Johansen
Transport
(ojt.no)
Wagons
Port
Wagons
Ships
Barges
6
Trucks
Members:
UK
Slovenia
Sia Dožas
(dozhas.com)
SkandiaTransport
(skandiatransport.se)
Bertani Trasporti
1
Toquero Express
((toquero.com)
q
)
Members:
Norway
Kefalonia
(kefalonia.ro)
Síntax Logística
(sintax.com)
Wallenius
(2wglobal.com)
Autotrade & Logistics
(autotradeandlogistics.it)
SE Mäkinen Logistics
(se-makinen.fi)
Members:
2
Trucks
Freeport of Finland
(freeport.fi)
Lithuania
Portt
F. LLI ELIA -Ambrosetti
autologistics
(ambrosettiautologistics.it)
Sweden
Members:
Members:
Everest Management
Group
(verest-management.org)
OÜ Toptrans Baltic
(toptrans.ee)
Tradisa Operador
Logístico
(tradisa.es)
Wag
gons
Ships
Barrges
Finnlines
(finnlines.com)
Port
6
Grimaldi Group
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Italy
Avelon Autologistics
(avelongroup.com)
Trucks
Port
Wagons
Ships
Barges
4
Trucks
Members:
Members:
Estonia
Setram
(autoterminal.es)
Motor Vehicle
Transportation
(mvt.co.uk)
ICO terminals
(icoterminals com)
(icoterminals.com)
Romania
Helicar
(helicar cz)
(helicar.cz)
Trapiser
(trapiser.com)
Wagons
Ships
Barges
2
EFTA23
Litra Autotransport
(litra.cz)
Autoterminal
(autoterminal.es)
NVD
(nvd.ie)
Volvo Group Belgium
en-gb/services)
Bergé Automotive
Logistics
(bergeycia.es)
Trucks
Members:
7
Trucks
Port
Wagons
Ships
Barges
2
Trucks
Ireland
Members:
Members:
Members:
Global Maritime Agency
(glomar.gr)
VEGA International Car
Transport & Logistics
(lagermax.com)
France
Spain
g
Hellenic Logistics
(helleniclogistics.com)
Lagermax Autotransport
(lagermax.com)
Finland
3
Neptunes Lines
(neptunelines.com)
Hödlmayr International
(h dl
(hoedlmayr.com)
)
Belgium
Members:
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Greece
FRIKUS Friedrich
Kraftwagentransport/Speditions
(frikus.com)
Trucks
Port
4
Wagons
Ships
Barges
Members:
Trucks
Austria
Wagons
Ships
Barges
EU252
EU151
2)
23 Continental Europe
Countries
92 Members:
• 41 Pure Trucks
• 9 Pure Trucks & Ports
• 10 Trucks & Ports
• 1 Pure Wagon
• 6 Mostly Ships
• 2 Pure Barges
• 3 Ports & Terminals
• 20 Multimodal Operators
Ilçe Transportation
(ilce.com.tr)
Source: ECG
17
ECG’s impressive growth is a sign of the widespread appreciation for its
effective lobbying for the interests of the Automotive Logistics sector
Historical trend in ECG Members vs Europe271 GDP growth
ECG membership % changeYoY
The relevance
of the ECG
association in
the European
Automotive
Logistics
scenario
The importance of
the Association of
European Vehicle
Logistics is
demonstrated by
the impressive
growth in
members currently
• representing
approximately
80% of the
number of new
vehicles
processed by
the entire
European
Finished
Vehicles
Logistics
industry
120
EU27 GDP Growth (%)
The global economy and European
automotive production and sales will
recover soon. Then there will be an
urgent need to invest in European
Vehicle Logistics
ECG members
A sector currently in crisis
• The automotive industry
has experienced its
strongest market decline
since the early 1990s
On average, ECG memberships
have shown a yearly growth
rate 15% times higher than
that of the EU27 GDP growth
100
EU27 GDP Growth (%)
Current ECG main lobbying activity
101
96
92
73
80
64
60
4,0%
40
20
6,0%
51
2,9%
3,0%
24
21
22
18
2,0%
42
36
31
2,5%
1,2%
4,0%
3,2%
2,8%
2,1%
1,3%
2,0%
0,7%
0,0%
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
22,2%
-4,5%
14,3%
29,2%
16,1%
16,7%
21,4%
25,5%
14,1%
31,5%
5,2%
-8,2%
Overall sector
investment
need and
rationale
Implications of
the credit
crunch
-2,0%
-4,1%
,
A sector in crisis
• smaller operators
are disappearing
• 20.000 jobs lost
• Between 20% and
30% of transport
capacity has been
slashed by
y
operators in order
to survive
• financial
resources have
been drained
• difficulties in
financing new and
existing
operations
ti
Approximately
83% of active
players have
cancelled all
existing and
future
investment
plans
Between €4-7 bill.
in financing to
enable the sector to
provide assets
required in the
medium term
(trucks, railwagons,
barges and ships
scrapped last year)
and avoid a future
capacity disaster
New and used
vehicle industries
will find themselves
with a transport
shortage
g capacity
p
y
soon
• A risk of a serious
bottleneck
because
Outbound Vehicle
Logistics capacity
cannot grow at
the rate of the
expected
economy recovery
-4,0%
1) Europe 27
EU152
Austria
France
Belgium
Germany
Greece
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Hungary
Poland
Latvia
Romania
Czech Rep
Estonia
Lithuania
Slovak Rep
Malta
Slovenia
Source: ECG, Economist Intelligence Unit
1)EU27: Current member states of the EU (at 12/2009) – Three more Countries have applied for EU membership: Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
2)EU15: Member Countries in the European Union prior to the accession of ten candidate Countries on 1 May 2004
18
• Executive
E
ti summary
• Appendix – Economic scenario and forecasts for ECG Countries
19
The European automotive industry is made up of
numerous players
Key facts
Automotive industry players in Europe
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Fifteen international players:
Over 250 plants in 18 EU Countries
A supply chain involving metals, plastics, chemicals, textiles and electric &
electronic systems
The world’s largest vehicle producer base
18.4 million vehicles produced in Europe in 2008
o 7% fewer than in 2007
Generating a turnover of €551 billion in 2008
A robust export sector:
Exports are valued at over €70 billion annually
Over €40 billion in net trade contribution
12 million direct and indirect jobs
A leading force of innovation with yearly investments of €20 billion in R&D
Committed to a model of sustainable mobility
Investing in cleaner and safer vehicles
Premium producers (such as BMW and Mercedes) are spending 4 times more
in R&D per unit than mass producers (like Volkswagen)
o also a function of the lack of economies of scale of p
premium makers
Vehicle taxes generating more than €400Bil in government yearly revenues
A volume business where economies of scale are significant
to be profitable, volumes must be high
very few niche makers are profitable with two exceptions (Porsche and
Ferrari)
Barriers to entry are high in the automobile industry
the market is rather concentrated
the product cycle is long at around 10 years (3 to develop and 7 to the mkt)
development costs are high
o €1bn for a car, including production tools, and roughly the same amount
for engines or gearboxes
o emissions and fuel consumption issues increase development costs and
favor the most solid companies benefiting from high volume and lower cost
per unit
Scale and technology leadership will remain critical to success
Innovation and quality leadership will continue to be critical success factors
Increasing interest in ways of reducing or sharing costs
o deeper cooperation between industry players (whether cemented by equity
stakes or not) to share costs (R&D, purchasing and Capex)
o focus on increasing volume per platform and chasing commonality
o model proliferation of recent years to reverse
o high profile model casualties are likely
o plants in mature markets will likely close or be relocated to low-cost
countries
Source: ACEA, Credit Suisse
20
Several stakeholders influence the European
automotive industry
Key stakeholders
Key influence
E
European
C
Commission
i i
• Determining
D t
i i
priorities
i iti ffor selecting
l ti
th
the R&D
National and regional
governments
• Responsible for national transport policies (strategic funding for
R&D, and major road infrastructure projects as well as programmes
for general and scientific education)
29 Countries where the European
Automobile Manufacturers’
Association (ACEA) is present
Austria
Bulgaria
Belgium
Cyprus
Road authorities
• Managing traffic on the urban and interurban road network
Denmark
The energy supply
industry and
infrastructure owners
• Ensuring there is adequate supply and infrastructure of fuels and
Finland
The automotive
Th
t
ti
industry
The suppliers of the
automotive industry
Vehicle users
Telecom and ICT
industries
other energy carriers for the future that is ecologically sustainable
and politically acceptable
• Responsible for the development and manufacture of
vehicles that are efficient, safe, environmentally friendly and
affordable
• Co-responsible for developing, manufacturing and distributing
vehicles
• Choosing and using of vehicles has a great impact on safety, traffic,
fuel usage and consumption, noise and the environment in general
• Contributing to seamless communication, using different
technologies and the development of open platforms for unimpeded
information exchange between systems
Road infrastructure
research institutions
• Contributing towards improved road design and road surface
Public transport
operators
• Responsible for optimising public transport systems and making the
materials
Czech Republic
Estonia
France
Germany
Hungary
EU151
Greece
Ireland
Italy
The Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
most appropriate choices, also in terms of vehicle procurement
0
Latvia
EU272
Lithuania
Malta
Poland
Romania
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Switzerland
Turkey
NonEU
Norway
Luxembourg
(Part of the EU15
but not of ACEA)
Source: ACEA - EU
21
High employment levels in the European Automotive Industry have always provided
ag
guarantee of g
government action at times of economic recession
Direct and indirect1 employment in the EU
Automotive sector in 2007
Mil jobs
9.8 Mn Jobs
12
12.1 Mn Jobs
10
8
Automotive
sector as an
instrument of
the state
81,7%
6
4
2
2.2 Mn Jobs
18,3%
Automotive Industry
(production operations)
Related industries
Total
Automotive sector
Manufacturing Activities
• Manufacture, retreading and rebuilding of rubber tyres
Automotive Industry
and tubes
(production operations)
• Manufacture of bearings, gears, gearing and driving
• Automobile manufacturing
elements
• Equipment and accessories
• Bodywork, trailers, caravans • Manufacture of cooling and ventilation equipment
• Manufacture of computers and other information
processing equipment
• Manufacture of electric motors,
motors generators and
transformers
• Manufacture of electrical equipment for engines and
vehicles (not elsewhere reported)
Vehicle
manufacturing
supports over
2Mil European
jobs with an
additional
10Mil citizens
employed in
closely related
sectors
Stimulating auto
demand is a
powerful way to
protect jobs,
support GDP,
and ultimately
y
garner votes
• Germany’s
2009 scrap
scheme has
been very
popular
p
p
with
voters
Government
intervention
Implications
for the sector
Starting at the end of
2008, EU
G
Governments
t and
d
the EU itself acted
fast to underpin the
financial viability of
the sector through
loan guarantees and
incentives for vehicle
purchases
• Short-time working
schemes, direct
government loans
and scrap discounts
have all served to
protect the industry
• Tangibly showing
desire of national
authorities to
support the sector
• Scrap and tax
incentives
perceptibly helping
sales
• Direct and indirect
government support
has also allowed
carmakers to avoid
wide-spread
restructuring and
escape (or re
reemerge from)
insolvency
Automobile use
• Sale and distribution of motor vehicles
• Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles
• Sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories
• Sale of motor fuels
• Renting of automobiles
Transport
• Road transport (passengers and freight)
Source: Eurostat
1) Indirect employment data does not report employment in raw material sector (e.g. steel, aluminum, glass, etc.), textile, driving schools, licensing activities, vehicle testing, vehicle
insurance and financing, etc.
22
The automotive industry is characterised by different
vehicle categories
Sub-main vehicle categories
Heavy Buses &
C
Coaches
h
over 16t
IV-c
Main Vehicles’
categories
Buses &
Coaches
IV
IV-b
Heavy Commercial
Vehicles over 16t
-
Light
Commercial
Vehicles
I
.
.
Passenger
Cars
HCV/B
Buses&Coaches
over 3.5t
Heavy
Commercial
Vehicles
II
Total Heavy
Commercial Vehicles,
Heavy Buses &
Coaches over 16t
IV-a
III-b
III
ECG classification
Total Commercial
Vehicles over 3.5
35
III-a
Commercial
Vehicles over 3.5t
II-b
Light Commercial
Vehicles up to 3.5t
Mini-buses up
to 3.5t
II-a
I-c
Premium passenger
Cars (
(average
g selling
g
price €50.000)
I-b
Mid passenger Cars
(average selling
price €30.000)
I-a
.
.
Also called
High and
Heavy
Total
T
t l Light
Li ht Commercial
C
i l
Vehicles up to 3.5t
LCV/MB
Passenger
Cars
.
.
Cars
Mass passenger Cars
(average selling
price €15.000)
Source: ACEA, ECG
23
The automotive industry has experienced its strongest
market decline since the early 1990s
Europe 281: Vehicle Registrations
1,8%
0,0%
in 000s
Credit crunch
The banking crisis
that started at the
end of 2007 stalled
economies:
• Consumers and
businesses
struggled to
access credit
20.000
8,0%
18.000
16.000
16.604
15.380
3 2%
3,2%
14.000
5,5%
-1,1%
17.525
3,7%
3,5%
0,0%
10,3%
3,8%
11,0%
10,7%
3,5%
10,7%
,
17.539
3,5%
10,5%
3,5%
0,1%
2,9%
4,5%
17.327 17.330
16.790
3,9%
10 0%
10,0%
-3,1%
18.048
18.060
3,7%
4,0%
11,2%
11,6%
-7,9%
2,0%
18.693
19.068
4,3%
4,1%
11,3%
11,8%
17.555
4,6%
Note: this growth rate is not
fully reliable because HCV/B
and
d LCV/B 2009 registration
i t ti
figures were available only for
the first 11 months
-7,6%
HCV/B
13.815
Actual YTD
0,44
1,29
11,4%
Actual
11monts
9,6%
LCV/MB
12.000
Actual YTD
10.000
8.000
There is no
precedent in the
automotive
industry for the
market
distortions
experienced
• The most
severe crisis
since WWII
87,2%
86,5%
86,0%
85,1%
85,5%
85,8%
86,0%
85,0%
84,5%
84,6%
83,9%
84,0%
Actual
11monts
14,49
Cars
6.000
.
Actual YTD
4.000
.
Actual 11monts
+ Provisional
ACEA for
December
2.000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
EU(15) + EFTA(3)
% changeYoY
2006
2007
2008 (1-E12)
2009
Artificially
y stable segment
g
(
(vs 08)
)
• in 2009 the Car segment has
benefited from local government
support including car scrapping
schemes
Total EU25+EFTA(3)
CAGR 97-02
CAGR 97-02
CAGR 03-E08
1) Europe 28
EU253
EFTA34
EU152
Malta
but not considered
by AAA-ACEA
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Hungary
Czech Rep
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Iceland
Romania
Norway
Slovak Rep
Switzerland
Sl
Slovenia
i
HCV/B: Heavy Commercial Vehicles/Buses
LCV/MB: Light Commercial Vehicles/Mini buses
24
Cars
The automotive industry has experienced its
strongest market decline since the early ‘90s:
90s: Cars
Europe 281: New Passenger Car registrations
‘000 units
16 000
16.000
4 9%
4,9%
7,1%
It cannot be
looked at as a
single market:
• It is made
up of 28
markets
• Each market
has its own
dynamics
12.000
10.000
434
14.369
14.747
-1,4%
14.818
-2,7% 416
1.713
1,2%
429
13,5%
1.944
2.148 -0,7%
15 350
15.350
15.084
14.399
4,3%
10,5%
1,8%
4,8%
-2,8%
0,5%
,
427
-6,0%
391
1.639 1,8%
1.489
-10,7%
-2,2%
1.668
1.457
13,2%
1.448
411
11,5%
490 5,2%
-5,1% 489 -4,3%
1.298
452 8,3% 611 -2,3% 515
530 -3,7% 468
12,6%
598 11,3%
511
543
396 14,1%
6 6%
1 406 -1,8%
1.406
1 8%
13 5%
1 426 -6,6%
1.426
478 13,5%
1.332
1.193 17,9%
1.381 3,2%
1.016 17,3%
14.000 13.416
The European
car market
-2,1%
15.066
-5,3%
-1,1%
-1,9%
-4,3%
3,8%
-0,6%
15 254
15.254
15.819
% changeYoY
-7,9%
1,2%
3,7%
16.003
CAGR 03-09
9,0%
-9,0%
14,6% 1.210 -2,6%
14.740
749 40,9% 1.056
396 8,6% 430 -5,0%
-1,0%
397
393 0,7%
1.179 -32,8%
370 7,3%
13.417
1,6%
1.583
1.609
-5,4% 408 -18,5%
1.529 2,9% 1.574 0,6%
792
1.441 6,2%
-1,0%
526 -0,3% 525 2,1% 1.522 -25,5% 333
459 5,7% 485 -3,8% 480 9,6%
484 4,5% 506 -1,1%
465 4,0%
1.134
489 -1,0% 484
536 -16,2%
6,9% 1.635 -1,2% 1.615 500 -24,1% 449
1.382 9,8% 1.517 0,8% 1.529
380
28,1%
1.161 -25,8% 862
871 -5,2%
825 -9,2%
2.255 -4,9% 2.145 -6,3%
2.134 5,7%
2.009 0,2% 2.014 2,7% 2.068 -3,3% 2.001 3,2% 2.065 -0,7%
2.171
3,5%
2.247 -2,2% 2.198 1,1%
2.345 2,5% 2.404 -11,3%
2.222 10,7% 2.459 4,3% 2.564 0,6% 2.579
2.567 -5,0%
,
,
5 9 -0,5%
5,0% 2.440
0 -3,9%
6.000
2.404
-1,0%
2.379 -1,7% 2.338 3,6%
4.000
2.423 -0,4% 2.413 -5,5% 2.280 -1,4%
4,0%
2.247 0,8% 2.265 -1,2% 2.237
2.326 7,2%
2.493 -13,3%
New EU Members
EFTA(3)
Other EU15 (8)
Belgium
2.050 -0,5% 2.040
8.000
CAGR 97-02
2.132 -13,5%
1 844
1.844
Netherlands
Spain
France
1.992
2.162 -7,9%
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
2 000
2.000
0
3 802
3 736 1,8% 3.802
3.528 5,9% 3.736
1997
1998
-11
11,1%
1%
1999
3.378 -1,1% 3.342 -2,7% 3.253 -0,5% 3.237 0,9% 3.267 1,6% 3.319 4,5%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1,4%
EU(15) + EFTA(3)
2005
3.468 -9,2% 3.148 -1,8% 3.090 16,2% 3.592
2006
2007
Total EU25+EFTA(3)
2008
1 - 11/09
-1,9%
1) Europe 28
EU253
EFTA34
EU152
Malta
but not considered
by AAA-ACEA
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Hungary
Czech Rep
Estonia
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Iceland
Romania
Norway
Slovak Rep
Switzerland
Slovenia
25
The European automotive industry: channel mix in
the car segment
Cars
EU281: 2008 channel mix in the car segment
for the 6 Main European Automotive brands
EU281: Historical
channel mix evolution
in the car segment
Unit
sold in
Mil
% of
sales
Car sale
channels
Unlike
commercial
vehicle and
bus
segments,
the car
segment has
two important
sale channels
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
75%
44%
45%
48%
50%
50%
25%
56%
55%
52%
50%
2005
2006
2007
2008
100%
75%
The split in
private
and fleet
demand
has been
hi t i ll
historically
balanced
% of
sales
1,80
39%
1,25
48%
1,05
0,76
0,73
2,59
58%
54%
57%
42%
46%
40%
8,20
49%
50%
25%
0%
0%
Average
selling
price
/000€
Corporate (also called fleet market)
Private (also called mass market)
56% of the new passenger Cars
registered in EU28 in 2008
(14,7Mil of units)
61%
52%
PSA Renault
60%
Fiat
43%
BMW Daimler
VW
14
14
13
32
37
17
15
15
13,5
30
35
16
Corporate
51%
Implications
Each sale
channel is
characterized
by its own
p
specific
demand
drivers and
business
dynamics
6 Main
automotive
brands unit
sales in EU181
Private
1) Europe 28
EU253
EFTA34
EU152
Malta
but not considered
by AAA-ACEA
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Hungary
Czech Rep
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Iceland
Romania
Norway
Slovak Rep
Switzerland
Sl
Slovenia
i
Source: Credit Suisse
26
LCV/MB
The automotive industry has experienced its strongest
market decline since the early ’90s:
90s: LCV/MB
Europe 281: New LCV and MB Registrations
% changeYoY
‘000 units
9,7%
-2,6%
2.000
It cannot be
looked at as a
single market:
• It is made
up of 28
markets
• Each market
has its own
dynamics
5,7%
8,7%
1.805
12,7%
50
1.660 0,3%
1.500
1 473 1,7%
1.473
49
229
1.000
500
17,8%
215
18,2%
228
140
0
11,1%
174
1997
286
9,7%
261
13,8%
45
81
312
50
50
96
254
346
308
-3,4%
375
8,2%
-7,0%
-3,1%
2,9%
21,3%
13,6%
58
99
15,6%
1.860
10,6%
4,4%
325
-20,4%
54
96
11,5%
298
57
414
4,5%
45
0,3%
259
-9,9%
233
-5,3%
60
83
-17,6%
-3,7%
49
80
4,3%
-4,7%
-12,9%
-3,6%
1.843 16,7%
1.804
-19,8%
287
433
-6,5%
-6,7%
6, %
268
404
0
10,5%
-5
5,7%
7%
86
46
221
51
76
297
19,2%
13,0%
100
54
250
14,7%
12,6%
54,3%
9,7%
101
60
6,6%
266
6,6%
0,5%
59
86
-24,3%
62
65
333
15,8%
386
5,5%
156
15,4%
69
283
-2,7%
-29,1%
-2,0%
18,5%
8,0%
235
3,1%
-2,3%
21,9%
171
10,3%
189
18,8%
9,9%
191
7,4%
205
-2,4%
1998
1999
-15,3%
3,4%
12,6%
60
64
26,5%
274
0,6%
2.006
-20,4%
68
81
-0 7%
-0,7%
4,7%
276
-39,8%
408
7,0%
2,8%
419
4,8%
439
4,8%
461
-0,3%
194
63
-35,6%
New EU Members
-49,9%
233
EFTA(3)
68
85
-31,6%
166
-44,4%
Belgium
-24,9%
Netherlands
Other EU15 (8)
1.292
97
43
-40,9% 130
51
459 -42,1% 50
96
-26,7%
5,7%
243
241
4,8%
74
293
11,1%
5,8%
185
12,4%
381
CAGR 97-02
-10,5%
2.104
2.087
2.022
2,2%
1.908
54
9,1%
-3,0%
2.242
0,8%
3 2%
3,2%
The European
car market
CAGR 03-09
6,6%
224
2,4%
201
-2,9%
2000
257
4,7%
229
18,3%
195
-6,1%
2001
EU(15) + EFTA(3)
269
13,9%
271
-25,4%
183
-3,3%
2002
306
332
8,4%
-2,0%
325
1,3%
330
3,4%
341
-14,5%
336
292
-40,2%
203
5,8%
214
-2,4%
209
10,7%
232
4,9%
177
5,0%
186
4,4%
194
2,0%
198
12,3%
2003
2004
4,1%
2005
2006
243
-7,7%
222
0,8%
2007
Total EU25+EFTA(3)
224
224
2008
Spain
France
United Kingdom
Italy
174
-29,4%
158
-30,2%
156
Germany
1 - 11/09
- 5,8%
1) Europe 28
EU253
EFTA34
EU152
Malta
but not considered
by AAA-ACEA
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Hungary
Czech Rep
Estonia
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Iceland
Romania
Norway
Slovak Rep
Switzerland
Slovenia
27
The automotive industry has experienced its
strongest market decline since the early ‘90s:HCV/B
90s:HCV/B
HCV/B
Europe 281: HCV and B Registrations
6,9%
‘000 units
822
7 0%
7,0%
800
2,8%
700
600
It cannot be
looked at as a
single market:
• It is made
up of 28
markets
• Each market
has its own
dynamics
500
400
300
200
491
17
53
18
27
42
7,2%
16,3%
12,1%
26,4%
575
-10,2%
19
61
23,3%
20
34
-5,3%
10,7%
22,0%
51
94
8,9%
75
-1,2%
75
-6,1%
22
32
-1,1%
4,6%
22
34
3,8%
-3,1%
62
6,0%
66
2,7%
92
80
15,4%
44
0,7%
100
18 7%
18,7%
92
653
113
6,9%
21
70
23
33
68
-0,4%
94
2,5%
113
0,9%
95
0,1%
45
48,6%
159
13,6%
66
181
9,9%
73
-2,5%
176
10,4%
-10,1%
12,6%
76
134
672
19
106
22,5%
23 1%
23,1%
17
16,4%
654
17,0%
The European
car market
-2,8%
1,0%
74
-10,7%
158
4,3%
613
-19,4%
587
14,6%
6%
-14
17
60
19
27
-0,2%
0 2%
65
4,1%
-17,0%
-16,3%
-4,6%
-10,8%
-6,2%
0,6%
-13,7%
,
101
89
74
136
25
17
8,5%
65
0,4%
-6,7%
19
26
-10,3%
9,2%
-9,3%
2 1%
2,1%
67
90
97
67
139
128
-12,9%
112
3,0%
22
9,7%
24
78
5,8%
82
1,4%
83
20
38
18 5%
18,5%
-20,9%
24
30
1 3%
1,3%
37,4%
18,7%
24
36
1,1%
80
9,9%
88
-28,6%
63
719
676
48
19
88,1%
9,6%
73
13,3%
4,2%
7,6%
20
28
7,8%
72
94
4,5%
97
-0,6%
3,8%
12 3%
12,3%
6,8%
11,4%
1 1%
1,1%
15,2%
0,8%
8,9%
17,5%
4,5%
70
-0,1%
156
3,8%
809
769
6,3%
13,8%
% changeYoY
-1,7%
85
51,0%
3,2%
21
74
4,3%
23
28
-11,5%
79
51
21
66,0%
CAGR 03-09
-46,1%
-68,1%
New EU Members
-30,1%
30,1%
EFTA(3)
( )
-41,4%
Other EU15 (8)
-32,9%
-35,9%
111
107
-3,2%
0,8%
108
8,7%
97
-10,9%
86
15,6%
-4,2%
-0,9%
-0,3%
69
-3,8%
70
69
162
7,8%
101
174
6,2%
-0,8%
185
118
100
66
-63,3%
-38,4%
436
36
17
49
16
23
23
-42,1%
72
-48,3%
58
34
184
CAGR 97-02
Belgium
Netherlands
Spain
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
-40,9%
100
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
EU(15) + EFTA(3)
2002
2003
2004
3,7%
2005
2006
2007
Total EU25+EFTA(3)
2008
1- 10/09
-5,5%
1) Europe 28
EU253
EFTA34
EU152
Malta
but not considered
by ACEA
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Hungary
Czech Rep
Estonia
Lithuania
Latvia
Poland
Iceland
Romania
Norway
Slovak Rep
Switzerland
Slovenia
28
Cars
The European Automobile Industry also operates
on a global scale
% breakdown of EU252 Automobile Exports
Global reach
NAFTA 36%
EFTA, CIS & Others* 24%
100%
100%
15%
EU253
85%
Asia 21%
80%
60%
South America 2%
Others 17% (Africa + Oceania)
40%
20%
0%
ACEA
Members
2008
turnover
ACEA
Members
2008
turnover
in EU25
ACEA
Members
2008
turnover
out from
the EU25
In 2008 almost 15% of the
turnover of ACEA members
derived from exports
*Croatia, Serbia, Macedonia,
Bosnia Herzegovina
1) Europe 25
Imports from non-EU25 countries in
2008 ran to almost 7% of the
turnover of ACEA members
Cyprus
Malta
EU253
EU152
Part of the EU27
but not considered
by ACEA
Austria
France
Belgium
Germany
Greece
Denmark
Finland
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Hungary
Czech Rep
Estonia
Latvia
Lith
Lithuania
i
Poland
Romania
Slovak Rep
Slovenia
Source: ACEA - Eurostat , CCFA, OICA
3)EU25: After the 2004 enlargement
29
Cars
LCV/MB
Car and LCV/MB industries in non-Western European
Countries are experiencing a strong market decline too
Cars and LCV 2005-8 global sales and 2009 expectations
Unit sales
in mil.
50,0
43,6
40,0
2,4
1,6
2,6
3,2%
6,3%
27,6%
17,8%
45,0
2,5
2,0
3,1
6,6%
15,5%
30,7%
27,3%
48,0
2,9
2,6
4,0
-3,4%
-3,4%
15,4%
3,8%
46,4
,
2,8
3,0
4,1
-14,6%
-43,3%
-14,8%
30,0
19,8
-2,6%
19,3
-2,0%
18,9
-16,1%
15,9
Non Western
European Car and
LCV/MB markets
-14,3%
14,3%
39,8
2,4
1,7
3,5
,
-2,3%
-1,3%
2,2%
7,3%
-23,4%
12,2
-11,5%
Other E.Europe
Russia
S. America
N. America
20,0
Strong market
decline in all
non Western
E
European
regions:
• A cumulative
-9,0% (CAGR
07-09E)
Asia
10,0
17,3
4,9%
18,1
8,5%
19,6
4,9%
20,6
-2,9%
20,0
3,8%
0,0
2005
2006
2007
% changeYoY
2008
2009E
CAGR 05-09E
30
HCV/B industry in non-Western European Countries has
experienced a strong market decline too
HCV/B
HCV/B 1995-8 yoy % Global sales change and 2009 yoy % change expectations
2000
5%
28%
-10%
4%
3%
0.5%
Asia
Eastern Europe
North America
South America
Western Europe
Global
2001
15%
5%
-24%
3%
-3%
-2.7%
2002
23%
-2%
-7%
-6%
-9%
5.3%
2003
9%
4%
2%
-1%
-5%
4.0%
2004
24%
18%
30%
35%
9%
23.0%
2005
-10%
5%
16%
11%
7%
0.4%
2006
13%
27%
10%
5%
3%
11.1%
2007
22%
40%
-29%
25%
1%
7.2%
2008E
10%
5%
-16%
11%
1%
3.8%
2009E
-5%
-35%
-10%
-12%
-30%
-12.4%
Non Western
European
HCV/B
markets
HCV/B 1995-8 NAFTA1 sales and 2009 expectations
Unit sales
in ‘000
% changeYoY
700
22,5%
13,3%
400
-9,3%
10,3%
593
600
500
CAGR 95-09E
8,1%
0,0%
395
395
538
484
427
300
200
15,7%
-24,9%
-7,2%
0
404
2,4%
375
30,7%
384
581
Strong Global
markets
decline
641
-28,4%
-1,0%
NAFTA1 HCV/B
markets
-10,4%
Strong market
decline in all
NAFTA regions:
• A cumulative
-18,7%
(CAGR 0609E)
502
459
-16,3%
384
344
100
0,0
Source: Credit Suisse
1) NAFTA: Canada, Mexico, United States
31
Key Automotive demand drivers: Cars and Commercial
Vehicles
Driver
Private
P
i ate Cars
Ca s
demand
Key private
car demand
drivers
Car demand is driven
by a mixture of :
1) aspiration/fashion
• analogous to
mobile phones
2) replacement need
• analogous to
washing machine
replacement
There are five key
drivers for private car
demand in terms of
both volume and mix
• All correlated to
consumer’s
willingness, need
and ability to buy a
car
Private Cars
Cars
Private
Private cars are
both consumer
goods and
domestic
utilities
• consumers can
generally
postpone the
decision to buy
a new car
Cars
Corporate
Corporate
Cars
Corporate cars
are investment
goods
• Unlike private
car demand,
they are bought
based on a TCO
rationale
LCV/MB
Commercial
Vehicles
HCV/B
Corporate
car demand
Corporate car
demand is driven by
ya
mixture of:
1) Corporate
economic trends
2) Replacement need
Commercial
vehicles
are intensively
used investment
goods
• Unlike car
demand, CV are
bought
g based on
a total cost of
ownership (TCO)
rationale
Source: Credit Suisse, ECG
Commercial
vehicle demand
Commercial vehicle
demand is driven by a
mixture of:
1) Corporate economic
trends
2) Replacement need
Key corporate
car demand
drivers
There are two key
drivers for corporate
car demand in term of
both volume and mix
1
Consumer
confidence
2
Replacement
demand
Customers will not buy a car until they feel
confident in their ability to pay for it
• feel secure in their jobs
Analytical
predictors
Economic
leading
indicators
Some customers will not buy a car until the
maintenance costs of their existing vehicle
outweigh the incremental costs of trading up
to a new vehicle
Average age
of car park
(and vehicle
density)
3
Mobility
y
trends
Some consumers may decide not to own a
car,, instead choosing
g to utilize p
public
transport or short-term car-lease schemes
(especially in urban centers)
Increase with
market
maturity
4
Credit
availability
Some customers can not buy cars until
credit is available to help finance the
purchase
Total cost of
ownership
sensitivity to
finance costs
5
Scrap
incentives
Incentive schemes put in place a statefunded price cut on sales (it is a relevant %
on small and lower-mid Cars)
Incentive
relevance and
length
6
Business
confidence
Customers will not buy until they feel
confident of a positive business environment
in the succeeding years
Economic
leading
i di
indicators
7
Replacement
demand
As an investment, ageing cars need to be
replaced before the cost of repair and
maintenance gets too high
Total cost of
ownership
(TCO)
Driver
Key demand
drivers
There are two key
drivers for
commercial vehicle
demand in terms of
both volume and mix
Driver rationale
8
9
Driver rationale
Analytical
predictors
Industrial
confidence
Customers will not buy commercial vehicles
until they feel confident in their ability to
obtain a significant return on the investment
in the following years
Industial
leading
indicators
(capex cycle)
Replacement
demand
Since CV/B are intensively used investment
goods ageing trucks need to be replaced
goods,
before the cost of repair and maintenance
gets too high
• Trucks need to be replaced every 3–5
years, depending on miles driven
Total cost of
ownership
(TCO)
32
Cars
(Private)
The European car industry sales trend and upside
potential (a lesson from history)
Western European1 car sales, 1960–2018E
16.000
Expectations
1990's recession /
German reunification:
Peak to trough drop
= -17%
14.000
What to
expect next…?
12 000
12.000
2008-10E credit crisis:
CS estimated peak to
trough drop = -18% over
3 years
1970's Oil Shock II:
Peak to trough drop
= -6%
10.000
8.000
1970 s Oil Shock I:
1970's
Peak to trough drop
= -12%
Expectations
Correction to this negative
trend will start when:
• Credit flows to
consumers, dealers and
industry
• Unemployment stabilises
There are signs that
markets are stabilising:
however, developed
markets will take many
years to recover to predownturn levels
However:
• commercial banks are
currently limiting
lending for tooling and
capital investment
programs
p
og a s
6.000
TODAY
4.000
• the end of the ‘cheap
credit’ era poses a
fundamental obstacle
to mature markets
returning to previous
volume and mix peaks
1) Western European
EU152
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
EFTA33
France
Germany
L
Luxembourg
b
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
Spain
p
Iceland
Sweden
Norway
UK
Switzerland
2)European Free Trade Association (EFTA)4 Members: Iceland, Liechtenstein,
33
Cars
(Private)
(Corporate)
1
6
The European car sector is cyclical but more
volatile than leading economic indicators
Type of sector
New Passenger Car Registrations vs. GDP Growth in Europe 281
New PC Registrations - EU
EU GDP Growth (%)
16.500.000
4,5
16.000.000
3,5
15.500.000
15.000.000
2,5
14.500.000
14.000.000
1,5
13.500.000
0,5
13.000.000
12.500.000
-0,5
12.000.000
High
correlation2 of
new car sales
with:
• GDP Growth
The European automotive
sector is cyclical (it is
highly correlated2 to
economic fluctuations) and
consequently:
l
• Sales trends can be
predicted using economic
leading indicators
• When one of these
indicators g
grows car sales
also grow while when they
fall car sales fall
-1,5
11.500.000
11.000.000
Implications
-2,5
New PC Registrations - EU
Economic leading
indicators have recently
been very low hence
very poor sales
EU GDP Growth (%)
Luxembourg
(Part of the EU but
not of ACEA)
1) Europe 28
Source: Eurostat/ACEA/AAA
2) In statistics, correlation indicates the
strength and direction of a relationship
between two random variables
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Denmark
Greece
Finland
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Portugal
UK
Sweden
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Hungary
Poland
Latvia
Romania
Switzerland
Czech Rep
Estonia
Lithuania
Slovak Rep
Norway
Malta
Slovenia
34
Cars
(Private)
(Corporate)
1
6
Europe: Increasingly positive growth expectations
in GDP starting from 2010
EU151 and EU272
Austria
Bulgaria
Belgium
Cyprus
Denmark
Historical and expected
p
GDP Growth in the EU272
C
Czech
h Republic
R
bli
Finland
Expectations
Estonia
France
5,0
4,2
Hungary
EU151
Greece
Ireland
Lithuania
The Netherlands
Portugal
Sweden
2,9
Romania
2,8
2,7 2,9
3,0
3,2
2,5
20
2,0
1,2
1,0
0,7
1,1
Malta
-1,0
-0,2
1,7
2,8
2,0
1,2
1,3
1 9 2,1
1,7 1,9
0,9
0,7
-0,3
-3,0
Slovak Republic
- 4,1
Slovenia
Spain
3,9
3,0
19
1,9
EU272
Poland
Italy
2,8
2,6
2,6 2,5
3,0
Latvia
Germany
4,1
3,5
-5,0
Luxembourg
g
United Kingdom
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit - EU
35
Cars
(Private)
(Corporate)
World (excluding the EU27): Increasingly positive
GDP growth expectations – high in the NAFTA area
1
6
Historical and expected GDP Growth in the non EU and NAFTA Countries
Asia And Australasia1
7
Saharan Africa2
Expectations
6,2
6
5,3
45
4,5
5
5,5
2
6,2
3,1
3
4,9
4,9
4,5
2,2
3,8
3,5
2,4
1
0,8
0
-0,9
0,9
Latin America4
Middle East And North Africa3
8
7
7,1
5,3
5,0
6,5
5,7
4
7
Expectations
6,1
5
4,7
4,5 4,5 4,7 4,6
5,6
Expectations
5,6
4,0
4,0
3 2,0
2
1
2,6
3,4
3,3
Very positive growth expectations
for the non EU and NAFTA
countries
4,1 4,2 4,1
2,0
,
0,1
0
1
4,9
4
36
3,6
2,4
5,8
6
5,9
5,6
5
2
Expect.
6,7
2
0,9
0
3
6,2
4,5
4
2,0
1
6
6,0
5
3,9
3,0
2,9
3
6,8
6
5,0
4
-1
-2
7
4 8 4,8
4 8 4,9
4 6 4,8
5,0 4,6
0,3
-1
1,3
- 0,4
-2
0
- 2,3
-3
Historical and expected GDP Growth in the NAFTA Countries5
6
5
4,8
4,4
Expectations
4,3
3,6
4
3,1
2,4
3
2
1,1
2,8
-1
2,2
2,4
2,5
1,5
0,5
1
0
2,6
2,2
1,8
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Positive growth expectations for
the NAFTA countries2
2014
-2
-3
- 2,8
-4
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit - EU
1)Asia & Australasia: Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Singapore,
Sri Lanka, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam
2)Sub-Saharan: Angola, Botswana, Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal , Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Zambia
3)ME & NA: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordon, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen
4)Latin America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, Paraguay, Panama,
Trinidad & Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela 5) NAFTA: Canada, Mexico, United States
36
Cars
(P i t )
(Private)
2
Additional demand drivers for the automotive
sector: Vehicle density and average age of car park
Car Density vs. GDP in 2008 (vs. Average Park Age)
A
Average
vehicle
hi l age
versus vehicle density
9,4
9
Additional sale
drivers
The scope and
Th
d pace
of the expected
volume recovery will
also be dependent
on:
• Vehicle ownership
y country
y
trends by
(vehicle density)
Major driver of
new sales
• Average age of
vehicle park by
country
Driver
D i
off
replacement
demand
8
8,3
8,1
More
mature
markets
6,9
7
6
High
probability
of finding
an old
average
park age
5,9
5,3
650
5
4
Italy
600
3
1
USA
Japan
Switzerland
France
Belgium
Slovenia
500
W.Europe
Canada
Australia
Germany
550
2
0
Car density
( Cars per 1,000
inhabitants)
UK
Austria
Finland
Portugal
450
Average Vehicle Age (yrs)
Spain
Greece
P l d
Poland
400
Vehicle Density (Cars per 10 inhabitants)
Japan
Sweden
Norway
USA
Netherlands
Ireland
Car density
and average
park age are
correlated
with leading
economic
indicators
Czech Republic
Denmark
350
Analysing vehicles age
without considering
density may be misleading
since the age of the park is
also related to vehicle
density:
• immature markets
usually have a very
young average park
age
• mature markets usually
have a much older
average park
k age
Hungary
300
South Korea
Taiwan
Russia
200
Rumania
150
Ukraine
100
Malaysia
South Africa
Brazil
50
Philippines
India
0
Less
mature
markets
Slovakia
Croatia
250
Thailand
China
Indonesia
0
10 000
10.000
20 000
20.000
30 000
30.000
40 000
40.000
50 000
50.000
60 000
60.000
GDP PPP per capita, (USD)
High
probability
of finding
a young
average
park age
Source: EIU, J.D. Power, Global Insight, Eurostat, Roland Berger
37
Cars
(P i t )
(Private)
Additional demand drivers for the automotive
sector: Average age of car park
2
• Average age of the
Western European car
park has surpassed eight
years
y
The oldest level in 20
years
• Average age of the USA
car park is one of the
highest in the world
• Parallel consistent
i
improvement
iin vehicle
hi l
quality over the past
decades and natural
increase in average
vehicle age as cars
simply last longer
Average age of car park
USA
9,5
,
9,0
8,5
80
8,0
Western Europe
7,5
6,0
Breakdown of the average age of the EU151 car park in 2007
100%
90%
80%
38,8%
45,2%
41,4%
35,7%
26,4%
28,9%
28,2%
25,5%
28,4%
29,7%
29,8%
42,0%
37,1%
40,5%
31,6%
27,9%
31,3%
31,6%
33,4%
34,9%
34,9%
33,3%
32,4%
31,5%
34,1%
31,6%
31,5%
33,1%
32,4%
33,4%
32,5%
33,5%
33,6%
33,6%
35,1%
35,1%
24,4%
26,7%
36,3%
31,4%
39,3%
41,9%
32,6%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Implications
• At eight years on average, the
Western European vehicle park
is not obviously due for
replacement
in some markets (such as the
UK and Belgium) the park is
relatively young
• On the other hand with an
average vehicle age of over
nine years, there is potential
for pent-up replacement
demand in the USA
32,6%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Portugal
Ireland
Finland
Sweden
Greece
<= 5 Years
Netherlands
Denmark
Italy
Austria
>5 Years & <=10 Years
Germany
France
Uk
Spain
34,8%
Eu15
Belgium
Luxembourg
(Part of the EU but
not of ACEA)
>10 Years
1) Europe 15
Source: ACEA, Anfac, Credit Suisse
2)EU15: Member Countries in the EU prior to the accession of ten candidate Countries on 1 May
2004
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Denmark
Greece
Finland
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Portugal
UK
Sweden
38
Additional sale drivers for the automotive sector:
Vehicle density and mobility trends
Cars
Ca
s
Light vehicle density (vehicles per 1000 inhabitants)
Vehicle density trends
900
USA
800
• Western European markets are
approaching
hi
th
their
i limit
li it iin
terms of car ownership
(vehicle density)
• US is a already a very mature
market with 825 Cars owned
for every
y 1000 inhabitants
• Emerging markets have a very
low level of car ownership
(vehicle density)
700
Western Europe
600
Cars
(Private)
2
500
400
New EU members
300
200
Brasil
100
China
0
Implications
• Levels of car ownership are very
high in the US and many Western
European markets (notably
northern Europe)
Volumes are thus unlikely to
return to pre-recession peaks for
some time
• Emerging markets offer the greatest
potential in terms of volumes
EU271 midyear population and population density estimates
Mid-year population
estimate
(Million)
CAGR 09-14E
502
CAGR 04-09
500
498
496
Cars
(Private)
3
494
493
492
490
488
495
496
+0,37%
498
499
500
501
502
504
491
489
486
484
482
Population density
(People/km2)
113
114
114
114
115
115
115
116
116
116
Implications
Mobility trends
+0,24%
• Increasing population and
urban areas congestion may
motivate some consumers not
to own a car
instead choosing to utilize
public transport or shortterm car-lease
car lease schemes
(especially in urban centers)
• Levels of car ownership
p are very
y
high in the US and many Western
European markets (notably
northern Europe)
Volumes are thus unlikely to
return to pre-recession peaks for
some time
• Emerging markets offer the greatest
potential in terms of volumes
116
1) Europe 27
Source: JAMA, US department of Transportation, Credit
Suisse, Economist Intelligence Unit
1) EU27: Current member states of the EU (at 12/2009
Italy
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Denmark
Greece
Netherlands
Finland
Ireland
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Hungary
Poland
Latvia
Romania
Czech Rep
Estonia
Lithuania
Slovak Rep
Malta
Slovenia
39
Cars
(P i t )
(Private)
4
Additional sales drivers for the automotive sector:
Credit availability
Euribor expectations1
Total cost of ownership (TCO) Assumptions
Mass car
15.000
Selling price (euros)
Residual value (after 3 yrs)
Fuel economy (l/100km)
Annual mileage (km)
Fuel price (€/litre)
Finance rate
3
LTV ratio (average over 3yrs)
The past decade
has been
characterized by
the mis-pricing
of risk and,
consequently
consequently,
credit has been
available at
‘artificially’ low
rates, helping to
drive car sales
higher
Relevance
R
l
off
car financing
Up to 70/80%
of all cars sold
are currently
financed or
leased
• Total cost of
ownership
(TCO) is thus
highly
sensitive to
i t
interest
t rates
t
Total cost of ownership
over a specific period is
the sum of related:
1)Car depreciation
2)Fuell costs
3)Finance costs
Mid car
30.000
45%
7,0
15.000
1,2
5,0%
70%
6,0
15.000
Premium car
50.000
Increasing
interest
rates
expectations
8,0
15.000
T t l costt off car ownership
Total
hi and
d sensitivity
iti it to
t
finance costs
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
100%
4,8%
100%
5,4%
100%
12%
13%
14%
25%
16%
12%
70%
74%
5,7%
60%
50%
40%
30%
63%
20%
10%
0%
Mass
Cars
Impact of
+200BPS in
financing
rate
Mid
Cars
Fuel costs
Total cost
of
ownership
sensitivity
to different
financing
costs
Mass
+500BPS 12%
+300BPS 7%
+100BPS 2%
00 S -2%
%
-100BPS
-300BPS -7%
-500BPS -12%
Impact of
+200BPS in
financing
rate
Depreciation
Mid
13%
8%
3%
-3%
3%
-8%
-13%
Source: Credit Suisse, ECG, IMI
1) IMI Bank expectations at 12/09
2) 3yrs IRS =2,14% and Euribor = 1,01% at 10/12/09
3) LTV: Loan to value = % of the cost of the good bought that has been financed
Premium Impact of
+200BPS in
Cars
financing
rate
Finance costs
Premium
14%
8%
3%
-3%
3%
-8%
-14%
Most likely
based on
comparison of
3yrs IRS2
vs. Euribor
Total cost
of
ownership
is very
sensitive
to
financing
rates
With increasing
refinancing
fi
i
costs and
d
tighter credit
standards, car
lenders (eg.: captive
financial operations
of automotive
companies and
financial institutions)
are very likely to
increase financing
rates
The cost of
vehicle ownership
over the next 3
years is then
expected to rise
by 2-3%
Implications
Increasing
TCO and
tighter credit
standards
could means
that car sales
may be
partially
negatively
impacted
Th end
The
d off th
the cheap-credit
h
dit era
The widespread trend of implementing
more robust credit risk assessment
processes at Car Lenders are resulting
in tighter credit standards
• lower credit quality customers will find
much harder to access car loans
40
Cars
(P i t )
(Private)
Additional sale drivers for the automotive sector:
Government intervention to support the industry
5
Scrapping schemes tangible impact
Vehicle Scrapping Schemes1 in the European Union
Incentive
Vehicle age
Conditions
Duration
Austria
€ 1.500
> 13 years
New car min Euro 4
(Tot pack.:€45 Mn)
01.04.2009
01
04 2009 31.12.2009
France
€ 1.000
> 10 years
New car max 160
gCO2/km
(staggered)
04.12.200831.12.2009
Germany
€ 2,500
> 9 years
Min Euro 4, max 1 yr
(Tot pack.: €5 Bn)
14.01.200931.12.2009
€1,500–3,200 (Cars)
€2,000–3,700 (LCVs)
€7,000–13,000 (HDVs)
No requirements
Incentive increases
with engine size or
gross vehicle weight
€ 1,500-5,000 (Cars)
€ 2,500-6,500 (LCVs)
> 9 years
Greece
Italy
€ 1,000
€ 1,250
Portugal
Romania
New car max 130140 gCO2/km
trend of new car registrations in Europe
New passenger car registrations EU23 +EFTA3
Negative trend
Possibly starts
09.2009
07.02.200931.12.2009
> 10 years
> 15 years
New car max 140
gCO2/km
01.01.200931.12.2009
> 10 years
Max 60,000 vehicles
01.02.200931.12.2009
> 10yrs or >250000km
> 10yrs (if new)
> 12yrs (if used)
>15yrs,max140gCO2/km
Car,max149gCO2/km
CV,max160gCO2/km
€ 1,500-1,750
> 10 years
new car emits max
120-150 g/km of CO2
(diesel ≤ 5 mg PM)
22.01.2009 –
01.10.2010
€ 675 - 1,700
> 15 years
From simple scrapping
to new car consuming
maximum 5lt/100 km
Ongoing
€ 2,000
2 000
> 10 years
Tot pack
pack.:: €22.1
€22 1 Mn
06.04.200931 12 2009
31.12.2009
€ 900 approx.
• Scrapping schemes helped to reverse the downwards
Trend reversal
1,8
10,00%
1,66
6,3%
1,6
1,43 1,46
1,51
1,4
1,31
1,25
1,2
1,26
Spain
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Slovak Republic
The Netherlands
United Kingdom
€ 750 – 1,000
€ 1,000- 1,750
£ 2,000
> 13 years
> 9 years
> 10 years
If old car/van > 13 yrs
If old car or van<1800kg
Tot pack.: £300 Mn
01.12.2008-01.10.2010
18.05.2009
0,80 0,83
-12,3%
-
2009-2010
Exact date TBD
05/2009 02/2010
Source: ACEA at 06.04.2009 – ACEA
1)Discussions regarding possible scrapping schemes in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland
2)EU15: Member Countries in the EU prior to the accession of ten candidate Countries on 1 May 2004
3)European Free Trade Association (EFTA)4 Members: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland
0,00%
- 10,00%
10 00%
- 15,00%
-15,5%
-18,3%
-
0,2
5,00%
- 5,00%
-9,0%
-
- 20,00%
0,4
Interest-free loan up to
€ 10,000 (Plan VIVE)
€ 2,000 (Plan 2000E)
1,39
1,31
1,30
-4,9%
0,97
0,96
0,92
0,8
0,6
1,34
1,27
3,0%
2,8%
1,19
1,09
1,0
2,4%
1,43
- 25,00%
-26,8%
-
0,0
- 30,00%
Car Registrations 07
% changeYoY
EU23
EU152
Austria
Italy
Bulgaria
Belgium
Denmark
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Czech Rep
Finland
Portugal
Hungary
France
Spain
Latvia
Germany
Greece
Sweden
UK
Lithuania
N
Norway
Poland
Switzerland
Romania
Iceland
Ireland
Estonia
Slovak Rep
Slovenia
EFTA33
41
Cars
(P i t )
(Private)
5
A lesson from history: Car sales and impact of
government incentives in France( )during the 90s
New Passenger Car Registrations in France vs. GDP
-18%
Mil
Juppé
incentive
Balladur
incentive
Recession
-2%
+15%
Post
incentive
-20%
+10%
S
Scrap
main
i side-effects
id
ff
will
ill be
b price:
i
2,3
• Incentive schemes across Europe have
effectively put in place a c.5% state-funded
price cut on small and lower-medium car
sales
2,2
2,1
Key issues for the 2010 transition to a
post scrapping incentive environment
2,1
2,1
• An element of permanent price erosion will
be possible as history suggests that new
vehicle incentives have been very difficult to
remove once introduced
2,0
2,0
1,9
1,9
1,8
1,7
1,7
1,7
1,6
1,5
1992
1993
Annual car sale volume
1994
1995
Annual car sale moving average
1996
negative pricing could cost Europe
Europe’s
s OEMs
some €1,5bn pa as scrappage schemes
expire
Mass carmakers (like Fiat, PSA, Renault,
etc.) have the most to worry about, with
scrap schemes currently funding price cuts
of up to 25% on some of their vehicles
1997
% changeYoY
Source: J.D. PoweR
42
Cars
(C
(Corporate)
t )
7
Additional sales drivers for the automotive sector:
Replacement demand
Total cost of ownership (TCO) assumptions
Selling price (euros)
Residual value (after 3 yrs)
Fuel economy (l/100km)
Annual mileage (km)
Fuel price (€/litre)
Finance rate
LTV1 ratio (average over 3yrs)
Mass car
15.000
6,0
15.000
Mid car
30.000
45%
7,0
15.000
1,2
5,0%
70%
Premium car
50.000
8,0
15.000
Replacement need
Unlike
private car
demand,
TCO is a
relevant
driver for
corporate car
replacement
demand
TCO over a
specific period is
the sum of
related:
1)Car
depreciation
2)Fuel costs
3)Finance costs
Total cost of car ownership and sensitivity to
finance costs
110%
100%
90%
80%
70%
100%
100%
100%
12%
13%
14%
25%
16%
12%
70%
74%
60%
Fuel costs
represent
almost 70%
of a car TCO
and this
cost tends
to increase
with the age
of cars
Ageing cars need to be
replaced before the
cost of maintenance
gets too high
• The
Th introduction
i
d
i
off
more fuel-efficient
engines is the major
reason to replace a
corporate car
Implications
Corporate
Cars are
typically
replaced
every 3–4
years,
depending on
miles driven
50%
40%
30%
63%
20%
10%
0%
Mass
Cars
Fuel costs
Mid
Cars
Depreciation
Premium
Cars
Finance costs
1) LTV: Loan to value = % of the cost of the good bought that has been financed
2) IMI Bank expectations at 12/09
43
LCV/MB
8
HCV/B
8
Sales drivers for the LCV/MB and HCV/B sectors:
Industrial confidence and replacement demand
New Commercial Vehicle sales vs. GDP Growth in Europe 281
Truck Volumes - EU
400.000
EU GDP Growth (%)
5%
350 000
350.000
4%
300.000
3%
250.000
Type of sector
2%
200.000
1%
150.000
0%
100.000
-1%
50.000
0
-2%
Truck Volumes - EU
EU GDP Growth (%)
New Commercial Vehicle sales vs. Industrial Production Growth3 in the EU272
Truck Volumes - EU
EU Industrial production (%)
400.000
6%
350.000
4%
300 000
300.000
2%
High
correlation2
of new
vehicle sales
with:
• GDP
Growth
• Industrial
Production
Growth
0%
250.000
2%
200.000
The European
automotive
sector is
cyclical and
consequently:
• Sales trends
can be
predicted using
economic
leading
indicators
However CV
sales are much
more volatile
than car sales
Expectations
p
Based on GDP
forecasts for
Western Europe
and for the rest of
the World (see pag.
33 and 34) ,
increasingly
positive growth
expectations in
GDP starting
from 2010
4%
150.000
6%
100.000
8%
50.000
-10%
-12%
0
1) Europe 28
-14%
Truck Volumes - EU
Source: UNECE, Volvo, Credit Suisse
3)Percentage change in industrial
production index, over previous period
Luxembourg
(Part of the EU27 but
not of the Europe 28)
EU Industrial production (%)
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Denmark
Greece
Finland
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK
2) EU27
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Hungary
Poland
Latvia
Romania
Czech Rep
Estonia
Lithuania
Slovak Rep
Malta
Slovenia
Switzerland
Norway
44
LCV/MB
9
HCV/B
9
Sales drivers for the LCV/MB and HCV/B sectors:
Industrial confidence and replacement demand
Total-cost-of-ownership for a truck1
% of total costs
100%
5,5%
1,4 %
2,3%
4 2%
4,2%
100,0%
Other
90,0%
6,3%
Financing costs
80,0%
Tires
70,0%
8,5%
60,0 %
10,6%
Insurance
Repair and maintenance
6,8%
50,0%
Road taxes
25,9%
40,0 %
Depreciation
p
30,0%
General and admin costs
Fuel costs
20,0%
Labour costs (driver)
10,0%
Fuel cost and
repair/maintenance
costs represents
almost 32% of a
Truck TCO and
these costs tend to
i
increase
with
ith the
th
age of trucks
28,6%
0,0%
Total-cost-ofownership for a truck
A
Average
age off ttrucks,
k USA versus Germany
G
(c30%
( 30% off WE truck
t
k sales)
l )
Truck Volumes - EU
7,6
7,5
7,4
7,3
7,2
7,0
7,0
6,8
6,8
6,8
6,7
6,8
6,6
6,6
6,5
6,4
6,2
6,8
6,7
6,56,4
6,9
7,0
7,3
7,1
7,2
7,1
7,2
,
7,07,0
6,9
6,5 6,5
6,3
6,1
,
6,0
Average age in USA
6,6
Replacement
need
d
Trucks need to be
replaced every 3–5
years, depending on
miles driven
• The introduction of
more fuel-efficient
engines is thus a
major reason to
replace a truck
Implications
Ageing trucks need to be
replaced before the cost of
repair and maintenance gets
too high
g
• Relatively young fleet in
Western Europe where the
average age of trucks stands
at around six years
• The oldest truck fleet globally
is in the USA with an average
age of over 7.5 years
Expectations
• A rebound in
Western
E
European
ttruck
k
sales is
expected from
2011 as they
need to be
replaced every
3–5 years and
th
they
are
currently young
on average
• On the contrary
the rebound in
the USA will start
earlier ((from
2010) because of
its older fleet
Average age in Germany (c30% of European truck sales)
1) Western European
EU152
A t i
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Source: UNECE, Volvo, Credit Suisse, BGL
1) In Germany as of October 2008
Finland
EFTA33
F
France
Germany
Luxembourg
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
Spain
Iceland
Sweden
Norway
UK
Switzerland
45
Expectations (1 of 3): Upside sales potential for the
Global and European automotive industry from 2010
Cars
LCV/MB
Credit Suisse: Cars and LCV 2009-12 global sales forecast
Key car demand drivers: expectations
Unit sales in mil.
2010 expectations
1
6
2
3
4
5
7
60,0
All
Private
Corporate
Cars
Cars
Cars
Credit
Scrap
Replacement
confidence
demand
trends availability incentives
demand
50,0
Asia
40,0
N.
America
30 0
30,0
W.Europe
61,8
2,8
3,0
4,1
15,4
15,9
1,1%
6,1%
70,0
8,4%
-11,1%
-14,6%
-43,3%
-14,8%
-1,4%
-23,4%
54,9
2,4
1,7
3,5
2 0%
2,0%
56,0
15,2
-7,4%
14,1
12,2
16,9%
14,2
20,0
0,5%
2,3
2,5
3,7
9,8%
2,1
2,1
3,5
-14,6%
23,5%
0,3%
60,7
16,7%
5,4%
14,9
5,9%
64,4
2,4
,
2,9
3,8
8 0%
8,0%
16,3%
2,2%
15,6
4,7%
-3,6%
-1
1,3%
3%
-2,1%
0,3%
Russia
15 9
15,9
12,3%
16,6
4 0%
4,0%
1,1%
10,0
Russia
Other
E.Europe
1
6
2
3
4
5
7
Based on
expectations
on key car
demand
drivers, car
sales can be
forecasted
All
Private
Corporate
Cars
Cars
Cars
Credit
Scrap Replacement
confidence
demand
trends availability incentives demand
Asia
N. America
W.Europe
p
S. America
Russia
0,0
20,6
-2,9%
20,1
21,5
7,0%
23,2
7,9%
3,0%
N. America
Asia
2008
2009E
2010E
% changeYoY
2011E
2012E
CAGR 08-12E
Credit Suisse: Cars and LCV 09-12 W.Europe1 sales forecast
18,0
16,0
14,0
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
40
4,0
2,0
0,0
15,4
-1,4%
15,2
3,5
-12,1%
1,4
-20,3%
-11,8%
3,0
1,1
2,2
3,6%
2,6
-3,8%
2,3
-6,0%
2,2
-6,8%
3,3
24,6%
4,1
2,4
2,5
2008
Other
E.Europe
-7,4%
0,6%
4,7%
15,6
5,0%
3,2
10,0%
3,5
0,5%
1,2
11,2%
3,1%
1,4
0,5%
2,2
5,4%
1,4
2,4
4,3%
2,5
0,2%
2,6
0,4%
2,4
0,1%
3,3
0,1%
3,1
11,6%
4,0%
5,9%
2,5
2,1%
2,6
0,0%
2,1
7,3%
2,2
,
6,8%
3,0
-26,8%
2009E
14,9
14 1
14,1
7,2%
2010E
3,2
2011E
2,9%
2012E
EU152
Austria
S America
S.
Western Europe
20,0
S.
America
Other E.Europe
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
0,3%
Other W.Eur.
Spain
UK
France
Italy
Germany
1) Western European
EFTA33
France
Germany
Luxembourg
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
Spain
Iceland
Sweden
Norway
UK
Switzerland
46
Expectations (2 of 3): Sales channel mix in the
European car segment
Cars
Expectations on channel mix in the car segment in the EU181
% of sales
100%
75%
100%
50%
100%
100%
-29%
29%
38%
19%
18%
62%
-23%
100%
7 5%
7,5%
48%
Private
Scrap incentives
% changeYoY
49%
50%
Car sale
channels
The combined
effect of the
global recession
and government
scrap incentives
has broken the
historical trend
in their
balanced
relative
proportion in
the two car sale
channels
25%
0%
50%
2008
E2009
4,0%
52%
E2010
51%
E2011
Expectations for the 6 Main European Automotive brands unit sales in EU181
Corporate
Private
Scrap incentives
% changeYoY
56% of the new
passenger Cars
registered in EU28 in
2008 (14,7Mil of units)
8,20
49%
51%
2008
-4,5%
-17,6%
8,1%
7,83
-3,1%
42%
Scrapping schemes little or
no effect on corporate sales
that have plunged
• Decrease in relative
importance (49% to 42%)
• Decrease in absolute value
(-17,6% YoY)
58%
Scrapping schemes positive
effect on private car sales
• Growth in relative
• Growth in absolute value
(+8,1% YoY)
7 59
7,59
As business confidence
improves, corporate sales will
recover
• Growth in relative
• Growth in absolute value
(+16,3% YoY 09 vs 10)
51%
16,3%
As scrap schemes expire,
private car sales will be
negatively effected
• Decrease in relative
• Decrease in absolute value
(-17,2% YoY 09 vs 10)
49%
-17,2%
Implications
Corporate
• Scrap schemes nearly exclusively
relate to retail rather than corporate
p
Higher sales volatility in corporate
car market than in private car
market
Private demand more stable in
volume thanks to government
intervention
o Introducing
g significant
g
p
price cuts
labeled as scrap incentives,
leading to sales growth of cheap
cars to private customers
• Little or no benefit from scrap
schemes on premium makers
Even if eligible, fleet operators
rarely run cars> 9–10 years old
• The expected recovery of nonprivate customer sales should help
premium makers as they sell the
majority of their cars in this channel
• The expected negative end-ofincentives effect to be mostly felt by
private orientated mass makers
Main negative impact on Renault
and Fiat because of their
oLow cost car ranges
oSuccess of both firms in
capitalising on scrap incentives
E2010
E2009
1) Europe 28
EU253
EFTA34
EU152
Malta
but not considered
by AAA-ACEA
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Netherlands
Portugal
Luxembourg
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Hungary
Czech Rep
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Iceland
Romania
Norway
Slovak Rep
Switzerland
Sl
Slovenia
i
Source:CreditSuisse,ECG
47
HCV/B
Expectations (3 of 3): Upside sales potential for the
Global and European automotive industry from 2010
Credit Suisse: HCV/B 2009-13 Global sales forecast
Key HCV/B demand
drivers: expectations
2010 expectations
8
2009E
-5%
-10%
0
-30%
-12%
-35%
-12.4%
Asia
North
o
America
a
Western Europe
South America
Eastern Europe
Global
9
confidence
demand
Asia
2010E
-3%
15%
5
-5%
5%
-5%
-0.1%
2011E
6%
17%
3%
6%
5%
7.4%
Credit Suisse: HCV/B 2009
2009-13
13 W.Europe1 sales forecast
N. America
W.Europe
S. America
Russia
Other E.Europe
8
9
Based on
expectations
on key HCV/B
demand
drivers, sales
can be
forecasted
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
350
-30,0%
2008
-5,3%
9,6%
3,4%
245
232
2009E
2010E
10,6%
263
240
2011E
CAGR 08-13E
% changeYoY
291
-3,6%
2012E
2013E
1) Western European
EU152
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
confidence
demand
Finland
EFTA33
France
Germany
Italy
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
L
Luxembourg
b
Spain
Iceland
Sweden
Norway
UK
Switzerland
Asia
N. America
W Europe
W.Europe
S. America
Russia
Other E.Europe
1) EU15: Member Countries in the EU prior to the accession of ten
candidate Countries on 1 May 2004
2)European Free Trade Association (EFTA) 4 Members: Iceland,
Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland
3)NAFTA: Canada, Mexico, United States
Credit Suisse: HCV/B 2009-13 NAFTA2 sales forecast
Unit sales
in ‘000
600
500
400
300
7,1%
5,4%
15,7%
384
-10,4%
344
16,8%
398
465
490
CAGR 08-13E
% changeYoY
525
6,5%
6,5%
200
100
0
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
48
• ECG - The Association of European Vehicle Logistics
g
in brief
• Appendix:
49
The European Outbound Finished Vehicle Logistics industry is
one of the 7 main actors of the Automotive Value Chain
Inbound
Logistics
Service
Providers
Part Suppliers
Raw materials/
Part suppliers
Component
suppliers
Tier 3
Tier 2
(sell to other equipment manufacturers)
B i
Business
description
Raw materials or
single parts suppliers
to the OEM or their
suppliers
Component design and
manufacturing either:
• customized to a
specific platform or
vehicle
• standardized on a
global basis for a
specific component or
system
Module/System
suppliers
Tier 1
(sell directly to
manufactures)
Whole vehicle’s
module or system
design and
assembling
Inbound LSP
Manufacturers
OEM
Multimodal transport
• Deep sea
• Short
Sh t Sea
S
V hi l
Vehicles
• Inland waterways manufacturing
• Rail
• Roads
Demand for original equipment depends on the vehicles produced
(that depends on the economic environment and consumer tastes)
Geographic
presence
• Local
• Regional
• Global
•
•
•
Key Skills
•
•
•
Product/
Service
offering
Global
• Global
Regional
• Global
• Regional
Local
• Local
Research, Design
• Product Design and
and Engineering
Engineering
Sourcing
• Manufacturing
• Assembly and
Material Science
• Ability to reduce
supply chain
capabilities in
Research, Design
lead-time
management
varied technologies
and Engineering
• Cost reduction
capabilities
• Brand image
• Productivity and
quality
After a decade–long increase in outsourcing, most innovations in
• Damage control
the auto industry now originate from suppliers
Developing a more extensive offer & remaining cost competitive
Demand is closely linked to manufacturer production schedules,
but component suppliers can grow their business by increasing
content by vehicle, raising penetration with existing customers
• Steel blanks
• Polymer pellets
• Others
•
•
•
•
Tires (Custom)
ABS (Custom)
Others
Stamping (Standard)
Engine components
(Standard)
• Others
•
•
•
•
•
• Interiors
• Doors
• Others
•
•
•
•
Road shipping
Rail shipping
River shipping
Sea shipping
Outbound
Logistics
Service
Providers
Vehicle
• Global
• Regional
• Brand image
• Product Design and
Engineering
• Assembly and
supply chain
management
capabilities
• Constant
improvement of
efficiency and
productivity of their
entire value chain
• Passenger Cars
• Light Commercial
Vehicles
• Heavy Commercial
Vehicles
• Buses & Coaches
Dealers
Rental
companies
Outbound LSP
Final destination
• Multimodal transport • Vehicle
Sea
sales/leasing or
Inland waterways
rental
Rail
• Financing (only for
Roads
sale/leasing) with:
g
• Storage
• Quality control &
Captive Financial
Damage inspection
Operations of
• Value Added Services
Automotive Firm
Pre-delivery
Non-captive
inspections (PDI)
Financial
Body & Paint repair
Institutions
Customization1
• Global
• Regional
• Local
• Local
• Ability to reduce leadtime
•
• Cost reduction
• Effective
management of
•
volatile
Manufacturers
volumes forecasts
•
• Productivity and
quality
• Damage control
• Ability to respect
Dealers requirements
for delivery hours
•
•
•
•
•
•
Road shipping
Rail shipping
River shipping
Sea shipping
Secure storage
Technical workshop
intervention
Sales/leasing or
rental
Customer
satisfaction
management
Financing with:
Captive
Non-captive
The main
Automotive
Value Chain
challenge lies
in
collaboration
between
parties in the
supply chain
• Passenger Cars
• Light Commercial
Vehicles
• Heavy
y Commercial
Vehicles
• Buses & Coaches
Source: ECG extraction, Credit Suisse
1) Customization means fitting vehicles with various accessories like air conditioning, alarms, radios, sun roofs, leather interiors, etc
50
Finished vehicles distribution typically accounts for 4% of
the sale price of the vehicle
Outbound
Logistics
Service
Providers
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Breakdown of the sale price of a
vehicle into its main components
90%
80%
25%
30%
Finished
vehicles
distribution
70%
60%
Physical
distribution
6%
Advertising and
marketing
10%
Setting up and
support a dealer
network
10%
Discounts and
promotions
20%
15%
I
30%
4%
100%
10%
50%
40%
30%
70%
5%
0%
20%
10%
0%
Vehicle
manufacturing
Sale price of
the vehicle
Priorities set by Manufacturers for
Outbound Finished Vehicle
Logistics operators
Breakdown of the finished
vehicles distribution cost into its
components
30%
100%
Dealers
Rental companies
Finished
vehicles
distribution
cost
Even if distribution accounts
for a limited 4% of total
vehicle cost,
cost the high level of
competition characterising
the global automotive market
is increasingly motivating
manufacturers to require
Outbound Finished Vehicle
Logistics operators to commit
themselves:
1) to guarantee the speed of
the delivery of new
vehicles to consumers
2) to help them in optimising
production efficiencies
II
Speed of delivery to market:
• Especially important for massmarket vehicles (as delivery
times can be the only
differentiator between brands
in highly competitive markets)
Sophisticated Logistics
network design can speed
the flow of a vehicle from
the factory and provide
accurate delivery times
for dealers and owners
Production efficiencies
optimisation:
• Even if optimisation of
production is typically
p
yp
y achieved
by mass production
techniques, great focus has
recently been given by
manufacturers to building
vehicles to customer
specifications
Post-production technical
enhancement centers
(managed by Logistics
Operators) can adapt1
basic production models to
suit individual customers
Source: ECG
1) Business approach that allow Manufacturers to create a clients’ feeling that ‘their’ Cars have been built on their own specifications and, in parallel, to reducing the number of Cars that need
to be discounted for sale because they have been built following specifications that the local market is not demanding
51
The European Outbound Automotive Logistics sector
has experienced sharp market decline
Europe 81 total Outbound Passenger Vehicles logistics spending2
The European
Outbound
Automotive
Logistics
industry
• The automotive
industry has
experienced its
strongest market
decline since the
early 1990s, but the
European Outbound
sector is also
suffering
• Germany is the main
market and the only
vibrant market
Total
outbound
spending
€Mil
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
Representing 45% of the accumulated
turnover of the 33 ECG members
p
in Europe
p 8 that published
p
incorporated
turnover data
1,6%
3.423
78
71
138
406
474
568
3.478
-1,1%
-0,1%
3.440
-2,0%
9,9%
7 6%
7,6%
76
78
148
-8,1%
-1,6%
1,8%
70
76
151
-2,7%
395
-3,3%
382
5,2%
0,1%
498
569
-7,9%
-3,3%
459
550
-2,3%
-0,3%
5,2%
7,7%
3,4%
-5,0%
2,1%
3.436
69
76
159
412
475
523
1,7%
10,6%
-7,6%
6,0%
3.508
70
84
147
-1,2%
-11,6%
-3,0%
436
3.256
69
75
142
377
-7,3%
-17,5%
-15,2%
-7,1%
543
-7,9%
393
500
3.018
T t l Europe
E
8
-2,1%
2 1% Total
57
63
132
-5,1%
-1,9%
334
-3,2%
-16,0%
330
-5,8%
-13,6%
432
-4,5%
-11,5%
477
-17,5%
3,8%
CAGR 03-E09
-7,2%
-13,6%
0,4%
% changeYoY
Representing 34% of the accumulated
turnover of the 35 ECG members
p
in Europe
p 8 that published
p
incorporated
turnover data
-0,7%
Netherlands
Sweden
Belgium
Italy
Spain
1.500
608
0,5%
611
-0,6%
608
-8,0%
559
-1,6%
550
-5,1%
522
-6,0%
491
-3,5%
France
1) Europe 8
UK
Spain
p
Netherlands
Germany
Italy
France
Belgium
Sweden
Germany
1.000
500
-
UK
1.081
2003
2,0%
1.102
2004
3,8%
1.143
2005
1,9%
1.165
2006
3,2%
1.202
2007
-1,9%
1.178
2008
0,1%
1.180
1,5%
E2009
Source: ECG extraction
2)
Spending (cost) associated with the transport and distribution of passenger vehicles from point of manufacture to arrival at the dealer, including technical services ( finishing, modifications etc)
52
The European Outbound Automotive Logistics industry is
characterised by different modes of transport
Sub-main modes of transport used in Outbound Automotive Logistics
Main modes of transport used in the
Outbound Automotive Logistics
.
I
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
II
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. Heavy
Trucks
.
on Roads
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Specialized
Train
Wagons on
Rail
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
IV
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . . .
. . .
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
. .
.
.
.
Specialized
Ships on
Sea
. .
.
.
.
.
(Car Set up)
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
III-b
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. . .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
Specialized Individual
Wagons (added to non
car focused cargo train)
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
VI-b
Highly
Specialized
Open
Heavy
Trucks
(Trucks Set up)
II-a
VI-a
Source: ECG
1)RoRo are vessels built for freight
vehicle transport
2)ConRo are hybrids between a
RORO and a container ship (a
below-decks area used for vehicle
storage and stacking containerized
freight on the top decks)
. .
. .
III-a
. .
. .
I c
I-c
Barges on
Rivers
.
.
. .
I-b
II-b
III
. .
Cars
LCV
HCV
8-11
2-5
2-3
16-20
3-4
No
300-600
100
300
No
1.000
4.500
125-500
Concealed transport with Heavy Trucks (for moving
pre-production models or show-cars which require
secrecy or for highly prestigious car transportation)
I-a
I
a
. .
Transport capacity by
type of cargo
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Block
Trains
Multi-deck
River Barges
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
Mono-deck
River Barges
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . . .
. . .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
Specialized
Train
Wagons
River
Barges
Specialized
Ships on
Sea
. .
.
. .
. .
.
300-600
Specialized
RoRo1 Ships
Shi
on Sea
.
. .
Specialized
Heavy
Trucks
2.000
5.000
Con-Ro
Con
Ro2
Ships on
Sea
53
There are at least 3 steps before a Finished Vehicle is
shipped from a Manufacturer to its final destination
Business
description
Dealers
Vehicle
Approach
Distribution
Final delivery
manufacturers
traffic
centers
(inland distribution)
Transport of
vehicles into the
country of sale
Vehicles
manufacturing
1) Heavy Trucks on Roads
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
• Secure storage
• Technical services that can enhance vehicles to local
specification requirements (Allowing manufacturers to reduce
the number of variations they need to make at the factory
and, therefore, keeping their production process efficient):
Fitting different wheels
Entertainment and navigation
g
equipment
q p
Replacing seat covers with higher value leather
Others
• Quality control & Damage inspection
• Value Added Services:
Pre-delivery inspections (PDI)
Body & Paint repair
Customization
• Sometimes used to refurbish used vehicles for daily rental
companies on short term arrangements with manufacturers
2) Specialized Wagons on Rail
Possible
1) Port Terminals
modes of
. .
. .
. .
2) Inland Compounds
. .
. .
.
.
vehicle
t
transport
t or
3) Barges on Rivers
temporary
Fully Multimodal
handling
Port Terminal
before final
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.
.. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
delivery
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
. . . . . . . . . . .
4) Specialized Ships on Sea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
. . . . . . . . . . . .
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...
. . . . . . . . . . . .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. . . .
. . .
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
..
.
..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
.
...
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
..
..
.
.
..
..
..
...
...
..
..
..
.
..
...
..
..
.
..
...
...
..
..
...
...
..
..
..
.
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
River
Rail
. .
..
...
...
..
.
..
..
.
..
...
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
Vehicle sales/leasing
or rental
.
.
.
.
..
..
.
.
..
..
Private users
1) Mostly on open multidecked transporters
• This is the most cost
effective method of
delivery
Located in strategic locations for easy
distribution to final customers and
designed to ensure effective hand-over
of vehicles
.
..
..
.
Transportation of
vehicles to final
destinations
Rental companies
. .
. .
.
.
Road
..
..
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
2) Covered Heavy Trucks
for high value vehicles
or direct deliveries
• Which may even include
a personal handover of
the vehicle
. .
. .
.
Sea
Source: ECG
54
The choice of which different modes of transport to be
used depends on the type of traffic
Main modes of transport used in Outbound Automotive
Logistics
Pros
IV
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
.
. .
. . . .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
• Suitable for very
large volumes
• Relatively
economic
• Low pollution
• Monetary
incentives:
eligibility for the
“Marco Polo EU
Program1” for
road traffic
avoidance
.
III
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
Barges on Rivers
II
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
• Not door-to-door
• Long transit time
• Need to combine with
other means of
transports for
initial/final delivery
• More handling
• Not door-to-door
o g transit
t a s t time
t e
• Long
• Need road transport
for initial/final delivery
• More handling
• Need for intermediate
points of
reclassification
• Low flexibility in terms
of cars transportable
• Higher probability of
damage from handling
• Lack of wagons
• Limits in available
infrastructure
• Low capacity
Door-to Door
• Infrastructure
Highly flexible in
saturation
terms of cargo
• Driving time
adaptation
adaptat
o
restrictions
Low level of
• High pollution
handling
Short transit time • Inefficient for long
distances
Likelihood of spot
• Local legal
prices due to
restrictions on
strong
transporters size
competition
among operators • High accident rate on
roads
Available options by
mode of transport
Deep Sea Shipping
between continents
Short Sea Shipping
around a continent
•
•
•
Distance to cover: Shipping
D
Intercontinental
traffic
Example:
Barcelona - Miami
7.600Km
C
Long distance
continental
traffic
• Suitable for large
volumes with
block train
• Relatively
economic
• Low pollution
• Monetary
incentives:
eligibility for the
“Marco Polo EU
Program1” for
f
road traffic
avoidance
•
•
I
Cons
Example:
Paris - Moscow
2.860Km
B
Medium distance
continental
ti
t l
traffic
Exceptional
case
Example:
Calais - Florence
1.420Km
A
Local
distribution
traffic
Example:
Naples - Turin
870Km
Source: ECG
1) An EU programme to shift more freight off the roads and onto short-sea shipping, rail and inland waterways with a 02/07 budget
of €115mil and a 07/13 budged of €450mil and more Countries eligible (Countries bordering the EU now also eligible for funding)
Countries where ECG members
are incorporated in 2009
55
The choice of which combination of different modes of transport
to be used mostly depends on a “cost
cost x distance”
distance equation
“Cost x Distance” optimisation map
Logistics
.
I
. .
. .
. .
Optimised Outbound
. . . . .
. .
.
.
An optimised
outbound automotive
logistics supply chain
implies the
opportunity to use a
single
g mode of
transport or a
combination of two or
more modes
• Optimised choices
mostly depend on a
“cost x distance”
equation
• An additional
important element
to be considered is
the value of the
transported item
.
II
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
III
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
Modes of
transport
may
complement
each other
.
Barges on Rivers
. .
IV
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . . .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
V
Cargo airplane
Pros
• Ability to respect
stringent lead
time for ultra
luxury vehicles
Cons
•
•
•
•
Not door-to-door
High price
Low capacity
High pollution
Optimized
Exceptional logistics
(Ul
(Ultra
lluxury vehicle)
hi l )
Costs
Inefficient
Air
V
Inefficient
logistics
Rail
Road
Sea
Optimized
logistics
I
II
Road
Mono modal
III
IV
Rail /River
II
Sea
IV
III
I
(Rare)
(Rare)
I
Multi modal
II
II
III
I
IV
((Not frequent)
q
)
I
I
III
I
II
III
Distance
II
IV
III
IV
I
III
IV
((Rare))
I
III
IV
II
IV
I
Source: ECG
56
European Outbound Automotive Logistics: ECG market
segmentation and key market figures (1 of 4)
figures and segment breakdowns
ECG segmentation of the European Outbound Automotive
Logistics sector
Logistics
Pure Trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
Mostly
Ships
Ports &
Terminals
Pure barges
Multimodal
92
100,0%
90,0%
.
. .
. .
. .
. . . . .
. .
.
.
I
I
I
I
I
70,0%
6,5%
(6)
60,0%
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
II
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
43,7%
.
9,8%
(9)
II
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
III
.
III
Trucks & Ports
7,5%
44,6%
(41)
20,0%
Barges on Rivers
11,5%
Pure trucks
11,9%
7,0%
23,4%
10,0%
Mostly Ships
Trucks & Wagons
6,7%
III
Ports & Terminals
23,4%
26,1%
32,0%
30,0%
Multimodal
Pure barges
0,04%
0,4%
40,0%
0,3%
2,4%
0,06%
1 0%
1,0%
9,8%
(9)
50,0%
63.067.454
31,3%
35,2%
2,2%(2)
5,4% (5)
II
€13,1Mil
21,7%
(20)
80,0%
I
63.355
5,6%
19,3%
11,2%
IV
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
..
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
..
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
.
..
. .
.
..
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. . . . . .
. . . . .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
..
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
IV
.
IV
..
.
...
V
. . . . . . . . . . .
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ..
. . . . . . . . . . . .
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
.. .. ..
. .
... .. ..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
... ..
.. ..
..
...
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
...
..
...
..
..
...
..
.
...
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
...
..
Number of ECG Employees
member
from ECG
companies in survey 2008
2009
(data 2007)
.
..
..
Total turnover
from ECG
survey 2008
Total vehicles
processed from
ECG survey
2008
(Data 2007)
.
.
.
.
.
0,0%
. ..
.. ..
.. .
. ..
.. .
.. ..
. .
. .
. ..
.. .
.. ..
. .
..
...
...
..
. . . . .
. .
.
.
...
..
V
V
V
V
Data from ECG members can be considered representative of the Continental
Europe Outbound Automotive Logistics market
• ECG Members volumes represent approximately 80% of the new vehicles
processed by the entire European Finished Vehicles Logistics industry
Ports and terminals
When ships are mostly owned and not
chartered and represent the relevant fixed
assets of the company they are classified as
“Mostly ships”
ECG M
Members
b
classified
l
ifi d iin thi
this segmentt are:
Wallenius
(2wglobal.com)
Grimaldi Group
Source: ECG
Finnlines
(finnlines.com)
Höegh Autoliners
(hoegh.com)
When a different mix of transport and warehousing assets are used to
satisfy the logistics need of clients and there is not a great prevalence
of one mode over another then the firm is considered Multimodal
Examples of ECG Members classified in this segment are:
GEFCO
(gefco.net)
Síntax Logística
(sintax.com)
Volvo Group Belgium
en-gb/services)
Groupe CAT
(groupecat.com)
Horst Mosolf
(mosolf.de)
Bertani Trasporti
57
European Outbound Automotive Logistics: ECG key market
figures by region and by country (2 of 4)
figures and country breakdowns
ECG 2009 Members: national and regional
breakdown
100 0%
100,0%
Austria
Members:
4
Belgium
Members:
2
Finland
Members:
4
Members:
6
France
Germany Members:
1
0
Greece
Members:
3
Ireland
Members:
2
Italy
Members:
6
6,6%
ECG 2009 Members
regional breakdown
92
NonEU
10,9%
EFTA3
6,5%
EU15 (+ NewEU
= EU25 = 82,6%)
Members:
18 5%
18,5%
59
EU151
EU15
64,1%
90,0%
Note for the correct
understanding of the figures
g
box
shown in the right
Almost all ECG
members operate on
an international scale
Members:
7
Sweden
Members:
2
Members:
7
UK
Estonia
Members:
1
Lithuania
Members:
9
Romania
Members:
2
Slovenia
Members:
1
Poland
Members:
2
Norway
Members:
5
Ukraine
Members:
1
Russia
Members:
6
Members:
3
Turkey
Members:
Members:
76
EU252
Members:
6
EFTA23
Members:
92
Country breakdowns
shown in the right box
on this slide include
consolidated data and
refer only to the country
of incorporation of the
ECG members
• Data shown on the
right
i ht d
does nott show
h
in
i
which countries the
different figures were
generated but only
where they are
consolidated
80 0%
80,0%
70,0%
€13,1Mil
0,2%
,
2,6%
0,4%
1,1%
0,0%
4,8%
5,7%
0,8%
2,6%
0,0%
Ukraine
United Kingdom Turkey
6 8%
6,8%
0,3%
8,6%
11,5%
Sweden
5,0%
0,1%
1,0%
0,8%
0,2%
2,4%
0,1%
0,9%
Spain
1,8%
16,7%
60,0%
,
14,7%
0,2%
0,9%
The Netherlands
Switzerland
10,4%
0,5%
Slovenia
Russian Federation
Romania
Poland
8,0%
50,0%
0,4%
0,5%
15,1%
0,4%
1,4%
Norway
Lithuania
Italy
40,0%
21,0%
22,4%
Ireland
Greece
30,0%
22,4%
Germany
France
Finland
12 9%
12,9%
NonEU
10,0%
Source: ECG
6,8%
0,1%
1,5%
0,1%
1 0%
1,0%
6,1%
Data from ECG members can be considered representative
of the Continental Europe Outbound Automotive Logistics
market
• ECG members volumes represent approximately 80% of
the new vehicles processed by the entire European
Finished Vehicles Logistics industry
63.067.454
0 1%
0,1%
6,8%
5,3%
20,0%
10
1,1%
2,7%
0,0%
5,1%
Spain
63.355
0,8%
%
4,9%
0,0%
0,5%
1,6%
5,4%
0,0%
Employees
from ECG
survey 2008
(data 2007)
17,8%
0,0%
0,3%
8,7%
2,7%
Total turnover
Estonia
Czech Republic
3,1%
0,0%
0,4%
1,1%
3,8%
Total vehicles
processed
Belgium
Austria
58
figures (3 of 4)
Breakdown of the total number of vehicles processed by segment and by sector (from ECG 08 survey with 07 data)
Total
number of
companies
Average number
of vehicles
processed per
company
92
Breakdown
by
segments
685.516
Breakdown
by
segments
44,6%
(41)
296.413
9,8%
(9)
835.000
9,8%
(9)
806.167
21,7%
(20)
6,5% 5,4% 2,2%
(2)
(5)
(6)
2.458.436
297.369
987.328
80.000
Pure trucks
Trucks & Ports
Trucks & Wagons
Mostly Ships
Total
vehicles
processed
p
Breakdown
by segments
63.067.454
Breakdown by
100%
national or
international
type of
90%
transport
100%
19,3%
11,9%
11,5%
23,4%
2,4% 03%
Ports & Terminals
31,3%
Pure barges
Multimodal
12.152.943
7.515.000
7.255.500
14.750.614
1.486.846
160.000
19.746.551
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Total number of
vehicles processed
33%
80%
51%
44%
51%
70%
Vehicles:
International
transportation (%)
Vehicles: National
transportation (%)
66%
60%
98%
50%
Breakdow
n N.A.
NA
Breakdow
n N.A.
NA
40%
67%
30%
49%
• Transport is on
a local or a
national scale
Big differences
appear when
segments are
analysed
• Multimodal
operators
process the
hi h t number
highest
b
of cars as a
segment
followed by
ships, and then
by mostly ships
and pure trucks
operators
• Mostly ships
p
stand
operators
out in term of
average number
of vehicles
processed per
company
56%
49%
20%
34%
10%
0%
European Outbound
sector
2%
Pure trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
Mostly
Ships
Ports &
Terminals
Pure barges Multimodal
Source: ECG
59
figures (4 of 4)
Breakdown of modes of transport by segment and by sector (from ECG 08 survey with 07 data)
41.127
0,4%
1,1%
,
0,1%
0,8%
100 0%
100,0%
7.817
146
464
42
337
90,0%
2.772
0,0%
1,5%
,
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
1
118
0
0
0
0,9%
1,9%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
13.031
25
54
0
0
422
14
13
17.058
0
0,0%
0,4%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
47
0
0
0
80,0%
9,2%
39
7,1%
30
0,0%
0
0
0
57,0%
49 6%
49,6%
60,0%
7698
50,0%
98,5%
2693
92,9%
7004
100,0%
Total number
of inland
compounds
Total number
of barges
13
76,5%
10.000 – 15.000
40,0%
Total number
off ships
hi
40.000 – 65.000
30,0%
Total number
of wagon
19.759
20,0%
48,0%
0
10,0%
0,0%
N.A. (very often
government
concessions)
N.A.
13
323
97,2%
Aprox value
(in /000€)
14
10650
81,7%
Number of
assets used
Total number of
port compounds /
port terminals
20.379
70,0%
0,4%
1,3%
0 2%
0,2%
0,1%
68
214
29
17,9%
Modes of transport or
wharehousing used
Pure
trucks
Trucks &
Ports
2334
Trucks &
Wagons
0,0%
7,1%
30
Mostly
Ships
7,1%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
,
0,0%
Ports &
Terminals
41,1%
9729
1
0
0
0
0
0,0%
0,0%
,
0,0%
0
Pure
barges
0
• In numerical
terms, trucks
and wagons
operated by
ECG members
dominate
• In terms of
market value
ships
dominate
followed by
barges
150
Total number
of trucks
0
170
Multimodal
Breakdowns of the Sqm available by segment and by sector (from ECG 08 survey with 07 data)
Sqm/000 63.000
59.615
859
Sqm/000 of
workshop 2007
53.000
Sqm/000 of
storage area 2007
43.000
33.000
23.000
20.806
247
58.756
10.096
210
9.887
13.000
3.000
Total square meters
available to ECG Members
Pure trucks
11.335
204
11.131
Trucks & Ports
5.635
106
5.529
Trucks & Wagons
9.082
49
9.034
Mostly Ships
2.661
45
2.616
Ports & Terminals
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
Pure barges
20.560
• Sqm available
to ECG
members are
mostly for car
storage
Multimodal
Source: ECG
60
European Outbound Automotive Logistics industry: key
trends
Vehicle Manufacturers: key trends
• Development of a single car model for the
world market to reduce manufacturing costs
and optimize production efficiencies
• Production relocation to regions (mostly in
Eastern Europe or Asia) where the cost of
labour is lower than that of richer regions
(where most vehicle demand is still located)
• Need for manufacturers to quickly fulfill newer
consumers aspiration/fashion requirements
(mostly because of the increasing level of
competition in the global automotive market)
Consequent necessity:
o To
T produce
d
new car models
d l more often
f
then before (Shortening of individual
model life-cycle)
o To increase the degree of car
personalization
• Need to substantially cut lead times:
To satisfy the built-to-order1 concept
To keep the marketing promise related to
quick vehicle delivery times made by
dealers to final consumers
European Outbound Automotive Logistics industry: key trends
I
II
Ability
y to
reach
increasingly
more distant
markets
Traditional European
operators previously
operators,
concentrated on
western markets,
were forced to
develop new activities
in the east
Need to invest in
assets offering an
increasingly more
flexible transport
capacity:
p
y
• Capability of taking
onboard a larger
mix of
car/LCV/HCV
models
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
.
.
(Car Set up)
Flexible
assets
III
Delivery time reliability
and lead time accuracy
IV
Progressive necessity
to monitor and reduce
the pollution impact of
the logistics business
.
.
(LCV Set up)
(HCV Set up)
. .
. .
.
The European
Outbound
Automotive
Logistics
industry key
trends are
almost entirely
dependent on
related
Automotive
Industry key
trends
.
Source: ECG
1) Approach where a product is scheduled and built in response to a confirmed order received for it from a final customer
61
European Automotive Manufacturers manage outbound logistics
both in
in-house
house and through external logistics operators
Spending (cost) associated with the transport and distribution
of passenger vehicles from the point of manufacture to
arrival at the dealer, including technical services ( finishing,
modifications etc)
Outsourced spending includes the cost of
transport, warehousing and value-added
services that a vehicle manufacturer
pays to external logistics operators
Outsourced
Transport
Spending
Outsourced Transport
spending is the cost
incurred by a vehicle
manufacturer on simple
outsourced transport
operations with an
external transport
operator
• Multimodal transport
Sea
Inland waterways
Rail
Roads
Outsourced
Logistics
Spending
Outsourced
Warehousing
Spending
Outsourced
O
t
dW
Warehousing
h
i
spending is the cost
incurred by a vehicle
manufacturer for
warehousing operations
with a third party including
all activities within the
warehouse, which could,
f example,
for
l include
i l d
technical services, value
added services or (as long
as considered to be integral
to warehousing)
management
• Storage
Damage inspection
Pre-delivery
inspections (PDI)
Body & Paint repair
Customization
Outsourced Freight
Management
Spending
Out-Sourced Freight
Management spending is
the cost incurred by a
vehicle manufacturer with
a freight
forwarder/management
operator including air,
air sea
sea,
land or brokerage
operations if required
Transport Spending
Sea
Inland
a d waterways
ate ays
Rail
Roads
European Outbound
Spending
In-House spending includes the cost of
transport and warehousing incurred inhouse (related to manufacturers’ inhouse transport operations & fleets)
Outsourced all
inclusive contract
Logistics Spending
Contract Logistics spending
is the value of contract
between a vehicle
manufacturer and a third
party logistics services
provider where a
combination of logistics
services are provided with
some degree of
management (for example,
warehousing and transport
but must include some
level of management)
Warehousing
Spending
• Storage
a age inspection
spect o
Damage
In-House
Logistics
Spending
In-House
Warehousing
Spending
In-House Warehousing spending
includes all costs that a
company realised through, or in,
it’s warehouses that are
operated and managed in-house
including all management and
administration costs that are
realised within the
warehouse/storage facility
• Storage
Damage inspection
In-House
Transport
Spending
In-House Transport
spending includes cost of
transport management and
transport operations
incurred in-house and
related to an in-house fleet
Sea
Inland waterways
Rail
Roads
Value-Add Services
Spending
Pre-delivery
spect o s (PDI)
(
) Body
ody
inspections
& Paint repair
Customization
These services are
provided with some
degree of management
62
• Appendix:
63
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector has a
different risk profile to the related Automotive Industry (1 of 2)
This section of the document will demonstrate the credit-worthiness of the European Automotive Outbound
Logistics Sector
The Finished Vehicle Logistics Secto
Sector as relevant
ele ant pa
partt of the A
Automotive
tomoti e Industry
Ind st
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector exclusively supplies both transport and industrial services to the
Automotive Manufacturers by using assets1 that are specifically designed to transport vehicles and that cannot be
used for any other use
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector is part of the automotive Industry
However the European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector is more diversified, stable and flexible than its related
Automotive Industry:
A) more predictability in sale volumes Å selling services to both new and used vehicle industries
B) more stable business Å due to:
1) the overproduction2 of the automotive manufacturers
2) outbound supply chain used as a stock buffer by manufacturers
C) more geographically flexible Å due to the opportunity to relocate asset1 where the demand is
D) more flexibility in asset disposal or sale Å main modes of transport1 can be easily sold or disposed
E) profitability and market share are positively correlated Å operators do not work with exclusive agreements
F) smaller, more robust and financially flexible Å due to:
1) generally stronger financial metrics (profitability,
(profitability efficiency and credit metrics)
2) more flexibility in the P&L due to an (on average) higher share of variable costs
3) generally private ownership combined with a constantly lower debt-to-equity ratio
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector is more stable and predictable than the Automotive Industry but
its growth potential may remain unrealised unless the banking system provides the necessary financing
Source: ECG
1) Road car transporters, specialized rail wagons, river barges and car-carrying ships
2) Stocking and destocking
64
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector has a
different risk p
profile to the related Automotive Industry
y (2
( of 2))
Driver
A
Business
diversification
The European Automotive Manufactures Industry sells vehicles and financing to both
private and corporate clients:
• Private and corporate customer willingness to buy vehicles is highly correlated with the
economy, but it is more volatile
• Captive financial operations of Automotive Companies are highly correlated with the
economy
Active in different businesses segments, but final diversification is not high since all
segments are highly correlated with the economy
B-1
B
C
B-2
Demand
steadiness
Geographical
flexibility
• Manufacturers with longer production lead times are able to satisfy demand better by putting
a stock buffer in the supply chain
High volatility in new vehicle demand
The Automotive Industry is following a Glocal strategy: locating production where costs are
lower, pushing distribution where demand is, and customising based on local demand
The glocal strategy: be smart and act global but always think local
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector sells services to both new and
used vehicle industries:
• The new vehicle industry is highly correlated with the economy
• The used vehicle industry is correlated with the economy, but very stable and predictable
More predictability in sale volumes due to the mix of an higher diversification
combined with a final lower volatility
• Manufacturer overproduction generates stocking and destocking at the plant that results in
more constant demand for a mix of transport and warehousing services
• Supply chain stock buffer created by manufacturers generates storage and post-production
demand that is not dependant on production volumes
More stability in Logistics Services demand
The vast majority of fixed assets used in Automotive Outbound Logistics are fixed only from an
auditing point of view. In reality, they can be moved where demand is growing (they can be
relocated from one day to another around Europe and for ships anywhere around the world
More flexible in dynamically allocating assets to new and more attractive routes
g vehicle p
production p
p with new emerging
g g markets
connecting
Automotive Industry has often faced political opposition to capacity closure and its assets can be Assets used in Automotive Outbound Logistics can be sold or disposed of with a positive
sold only in an M&A transaction
residual value
D
Assets
residual
value
E
Profitability
vs Market
share
F
• Automotive troubles today do not stem from market trends, but from structural production
overcapacity
In case of market downturn or change in strategic decisions, effective execution of
asset disposal or sale may be quite difficult
Financial
benchmark
Western European markets are quite mature and also highly competitive, while emerging
markets are less mature but still highly competitive
More flexible in terms of asset disposal or sale
Automotive Outbound Logistics operators do not work with exclusive agreements. They can
divert profitable services to where demand is healthier
To gain market share, quite often profitability needs to be sacrificed
It is very likely that profitability and market share are positively correlated (eg.: their
values can move together and in the same direction)
Titans with robust financials but currently with a credit rating1 between a lower
medium grade and a speculative investment grade
Many times smaller, but with stronger financial metrics combined with financial P&L
flexibility and a constant lower debt-to-equity ratio
Source: ECG
1) S&P, Moodys and Fitch
65
A
The Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector is diversified
and predictable
Driver
The Automotive Manufactures Industry mostly sells
products and financing to private and corporate clients:
p
Automotive Outbound Logistics
g
Sector
The European
sells services to both new and used vehicle industries
Main European players ‘08 revenues breakdown1 by business line
Groupr
revenues 95.873
€Mil
100%
90%
0,0%
9,0%
0,0%
53.197
37.791
2,2%
1,3%
4,1%
23 9%
23,9%
0,0%
0 0%
0,0%
113.808 59.380
0,0%
7,5%
0,0%
9 2%
9,2%
80%
70%
42,0%
20,9%
2,1%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
18,4%
37.029
14.945
6,2%
2,8%
18,4%
5,7%
28,7%
1,2%
0,0%
60%
50%
26 2%
26,2%
3,5%
0,0%
0,0%
530.685
4,9%
7,3%
4,1%
3,7%
8 5%
8,5%
8,0%
17,1%
15,2%
66,9%
30%
Other related with
Automotive (like engines,
parts, in-house logistics)
Agricultural and
Construction Equipment
83,3%
74,0%
- 64.306 of revenue
eliminations are not
considered in this
breakdown
70,2%
70,3%
10%
0%
0,0%
Daymler
BMW
Renault
VW
Fiat2
Volvo
MAN
PSA
15,3 - 16,9
1,6-3,1
14 2 - 15,3
14.2
15 3
-4,4%
1,5-3,0
Used car
transported
13,7
-7,4%
12,7
New car
transported
65,4%
65,9%
43,0%
20%
% changeYoY
-6,8%-7,1%
CV and Buses
Cars
49,0%
Cars
transported
in Mil
Financial Services
15,6%
94,6%
40%
Business
diversification
54.356
2007 estimated
volume of cars
transported
2008 estimated
volume of cars
transported
All 8
togheter
• Private customer willingness to buy a vehicle depends on
ability to pay and thus is highly correlated with the state
of the economy
• Corporate customer willingness to buy a vehicle depends
on confidence in significant future return on the
investment and thus is highly correlated with the
economy
• Captive Financial Operations of Automotive Companies
are highly correlated with the economy. They are very
likely to increase financing rates when the economy goes
down because of increasing refinancing costs and tighter
credit standards
Less diversification and more volatility
The 2 businesses
b sinesses of reference
efe ence of the European
E opean
Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector are not
reciprocally correlated:
• The new vehicle industry is highly correlated with
the economy and very volatile with the GDP growth
rate
• The used vehicle industry depends on the state of
the economy but is less correlated and more
stable/predictable than the new vehicle industry
More real diversification and more predictability
Source: ECG, European Manufacturers 2008 Financial Statements Divisional breakdowns
1) Eliminations are not included 2) Approximate allocation as Fiat Group “Highlights by Sector” section does not include Financial Services as a sector
66
Cars
A
LCV/MB
HCV/B
Key demand drivers for the Western European
Used Vehicle Sector
Driver
1
Used Cars
distinctive
client type
The used car is
almost
exclusively
private
i
• the number of
used cars
bought by
fleet operators
or businesses
is minimal
Key used
car demand
drivers
There are four
key drivers for
used car demand
in terms of both
volume
l
and
d mix
i
• All correlated
to the
consumer’s
willingness,
need and
ability to buy
a car
2
Analytical
predictors
Driver rationale
Consumer
confidence
fid
Cars are both consumer product and domestic utility
• Consumers can generally postpone the decision to buy a new car and will
not buy a car until they feel confident in their ability to pay for it
New Cars
as biggest
competitor
New and used car markets rely on However it is important to note that volatility showed
in new vehicles sale trends present a much higher
level of volatility than those of the used market
each other for their continued
(as it is demonstrated on the slide at page 77)
existence
• A used vehicle has to be disposed of
t release
to
l
equity
it to
t partt fund
f d a new
vehicle or a newer used unit
2nd
3rd
4th
oA new car market needs a strong New Almost
car
new car Owner Owner Owner
used car market and vice versa
• In a mature market such as
New
High
Western Europe, the vast majority
Very low
probability
probability of
of new cars and commercial
of scrapping
scrapping
vehicles sold are replacement units
Economic
i di
indicators
New car
market
trends
3
• Cars need to be replaced every 10 years on average depending on miles driven
Replacement
o Fuel costs represent almost 70% of a car TCO and this cost tends to
demand
increase with the age of the vehicle
(More TCOp
every
y 3–5 y
years, depending
p
g on miles driven
• CV need to be replaced
awareness)
oFuel costs and repair/maintenance represent almost 32% of a Truck TCO
and these costs tend to increase with the age of trucks
Total cost of
ownership
sensitivity to
fi
finance
costs
t
4
Used Cars and post-sale services
are major sources of profit for
Higher
dealerships in Western Europe
interest of
profit))
dealers (vs
(vs. ((~66% of annual p
•
42%
of
profit
is generated by
new car
post
sale
services
business)
• 24% of profit is generated by
the sale of used cars
% relevance
on dealers
profit of post
sale and
used car
businesses
5
Scrap
incentives
Used Cars
& services
New Cars
30%
70%
Revenues
3%
Other
42%
Post sale
24%
Used Cars
31%
New Cars
Profit
Incentive schemes put in place a state-funded price cut on sales to facilitate the
l off new cars (it is
i a relevant
l
t % on small
ll and
d lower-mid
l
id C
Cars),
) b
butt h
have th
the
sale
opposite effect on the sale of used cars
• Scrap incentives reduce the life cycle of a used car
Incentive
relevance
and length
Source: ECG, SMMT (The UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders )/KPMG, PricewaterhouseCoopers
67
Cars
A
Total used car volumes in Western Europe are well in excess of the new
car sales total
total, suggesting significant demand for Logistics Services
Used car sales figures are not readily available and it is
often difficult to track private transactions (reliable
data for all 11 Western European countries was only
available for 2007)
Implications for
f
European
Outbound Automotive Logistics
European1 new and used car markets in 2007 & ratio of used car sales vs new car sales
Of the used cars sold every
year in Western Europe, only
a small portion (aprox 5-10%)
require the involvement of
operators
• ~1,5-3Mil used car
transported by Automotive
Logistics Operators in 2007
Multiple of used car sales to new car
sales
3,1
1,9
2,7
3,8
2,0
1,1
3,6
2,3
1,3
3,1
2,5
Mil
Cars
8,0 7,5
7,0
6,1
31,3Mil Used
Cars sold in
Western
Europe in
2007
• On
average
2,5 times
more used
car sales
than new
car sales
56
5,6
60
6,0
5,0
5,0
4,0
3,1
3,0
2,4
21
2,1
2,0
2,5
1,0
19
1,9
1,7
1,6
0,5
1,1
0,7
0,3
0,7
0,3
0,5 0,5
0,0
UK
France
Germany
Netherlands
Italy
Sweden
Spain
Used Cars sale
Belgium
Austria
0,5
0,2
5-10%
100%
Total
used car
annual
sale
volume
0,2
Portugal
Used car
average annual
transport volume
as % of Used
Cars sale volume
Denmark
New Cars sale
1) Europe 11
Netherlands
Austria
France
Belgium
Germany
Portugal
Sweden
Denmark
Italy
Spain
UK
Source: ACEA, SMMT (The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders )/KPMG, Automobil Club Italia (ACI)
68
Cars
A
LCV/MB
HCV/B
Remarkably, demand for Used Cars in Western Europe
has been more stable than demand for New Cars
New and used car sales: annual growth rates in Italy vs Italian GDP % change pa
Used car sales
CAGR 00-08
New car sales
CAGR 00-08
% change pa
10,0%
5,0%
10,2%
8,3%
0,0%
Cars
2001
-5,0%
-0,4%
0,5%
2002
7,2%
4,0%
2,1%
1,5%
2006
2007
0,8%
4 7%
4,7%
4,0%
1,8%
8,5%
0,1%
2003
-1,4%
1,4%
0,8%
2004
-5,5%
0,8%
2005
-1,2%
-3,5%
EU71 Used Car Market vs EU151 GDP % change.pa
2008 - 1,0%
- 2,6% 3,7%
,
- 13,3% -1,4%
-15,0%
% change pa
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
LCV/MB
0,0%
HCV/B
-5,0%
Italy used Cars growth
14,0%
9,5%
2,0%
1,8%
2001
12,2%
9,2%
5,3%
3,3%
0,5%
2002
0,1%
2003
Italy GDP (% real change pa)
1,4%
1,4%
,
2004
7,8%
0,8%
0,5%
-1,9%
2005
2,1%
2006
5,3%
3,7%
1,5%
,
2007
-10,0%
Used car sales
CAGR 00-08
New car sales
CAGR 00-08
-1,0%
1 0%
2008
-5,2% 4,4%
-6,8% -0,3%
-15,0%
-20,0%
-22,0%
-25,0%
Italy
y new CV/B
/ g
growth
Italy
y used CV/B
/ g
growth
Italy
y GDP (%
(
real change
g p
pa)
)
New and used car sales: annual growth rates in UK vs UK GDP % change pa
% change pa
10,7%
9,1%
10,0%
5,0%
,
2,5%
,
3 1%
3,1%
2,1%
Cars
0,0%
-5,0%
4,3%
2001
2002
2,8%
0,6%
2003
-5,9%
7,4%
3,0%
2004
-0,5%
2,2%
-2,0%
2005
-5,0%
2,9%
0,1%
2006
-3,9%
2,6%
2,5%
2007
-1,3%
-10,0%
-15,0%
Used car sales
CAGR 00-08
New car sales
CAGR 00-08
0 55%
0,55%
2008
-4,4%
-11,3%
UK New Cars growth
UK used Cars growth
0,6%
-0,5%
UK GDP (% real change pa)
Source: ACEA, SMMT (The UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders )/KPMG, Automobil Club Italia (ACI),
GDP %
real
change
h
pa
CAGR 03-07
EU15 GDP (% real change pa)
Cars
in mil
29
28
-10,0%
Italy New Cars growth
% changeYoY
27,3 1,5%
28,9
1,8%
27,7 0,4% 27,8
3,0%
2,5%
27
26
1,4%
28,3 2,1%
2,0%
2003
2004
2005
Used car and CV/B
markets
k t in
i Western
W t
Europe are less volatile
than the equivalent new
markets and more in line
with GDP growth
• On average the Italian
used car market grew
with a CAGR of 3,7%
between 00 and 08,
while the CV/B market
grew with a CAGR of
4,4%
o In contrast the new car
and CV/B markets
declined by respectively
1 4% and 0,3%
1,4%
0 3%
• On average the UK used
car market grew with a
CAGR of 0,6% between
00 and 08
o In contrast the new car
market declined by
0 5%
0,5%
2006
2007
Implications for
European Outbound
Automotive
Logistics
Transport
volumes of used
cars are more
predictable than
those related to
the new car
market
1) Europe 7
Italy
France
Sweden
UK
Spain
Netherlands
Germany
69
A
Cars
The Western European Used Car Market is
expected to grow again starting from 2010
Western Europe1 Used Car Market forecast
Mil
Cars
Expectations for the
Western European1
Used Car Market
35,0
As used car sales figures
are not readily
y available
and it is often difficult to
track private
transactions,
expectations for the
period from 2008 to 2012
have been developed
using as a predictor the
YoY GDP growth rate
• Italy and UK 2008 data
have been the only
exceptions since public
data were already
available
30,0
25,0
% changeYoY
35 8
35,8
9,9
-0,8%
0 8%
0,5%
1,7
0,9%
5,0
-2,6%
20,0
15,0
5,6
0,3%
3
35,5
CAGR E08-E12
-4,1%
34,0
0,7%
34,2
1,4%
34,6
1,1%
35,1
1,1%
9,9
-4,2%
9,5
0,7%
9,6
1,2%
9,7
1,5%
1,7
-3,6%
1,7
-2,0%
1,6
0,6%
1,6
1,2%
1,6
-0,1%
4,7
0,8%
4,7
0,7%
4,7
0,9%
4,8
0,8%
5,5
1,2%
5,6
1,4%
5,6
1,7%
5,7
1,4%
4,9
5,6
-4,8%
9,8
1,1%
Other W.Europe
Spain
Italy
France
-2,3%
Germany
UK
10,0
5,0
6,1
1,3%
6,2
-4,8%
5,9
1,0%
,
5,9
1,5%
6,0
,
1,8%
6,1
1,4%
7,5
-4,4%
7,2
-4,6%
6,8
0,7%
6,9
1,0%
6,9
1,3%
7,0
1,0%
00
0,0
2007
Source: ECG estimates
2) EU15: Member Countries in the EU
prior to the accession of ten
candidate Countries on 1 May 2004
3)European Free Trade Association
(EFTA) 4 Members: Iceland,
Liechtenstein, Norway and
Switzerland
2008E
2009E
2010E
2008E
0 5%
0,5%
0,9%
0,3%
1,3%
2009E
-4,2%
4 2%
-3,6%
-4,8%
-2,3%
-4,8%
-4,6%
2010E
0 7%
0,7%
-2,0%
0,8%
1,2%
1,0%
0,7%
2011E
1 2%
1,2%
0,6%
0,7%
1,4%
1,5%
1,0%
2012E
1 5%
1,5%
1,2%
0,9%
1,7%
1,8%
1,3%
2012E
1) Western European
The Economist Intelligence Unit Expectations
for the GDP YoY Growth rates
EU15
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
UK
2011E
EU152
A t i
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
EFTA33
F
France
Germany
Luxembourg
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
Sweden
Iceland
Norway
UK
Switzerland
Spain
70
A
Cars
Government intervention to support the Automotive
industry had a negative effect on the used car market
Western Europe1 New and Used Car Markets
(historical and forecasted)
Incentives
Scrapping schemes:
positive effect on new
car sales but a
negative effect on the
used car market
Mil
Cars
% changeYoY
35,0
Scrapping schemes
tangible impact
New and used car
sales as an
inextricably
y linked
system
• supply and demand
in one market have a
direct effect on the
other
Scrapping schemes
tangible impact
The additional scrap
demand satisfied by
new car sales in 2009
has meant less
demand for used cars
30,0
35,8
-0,8%
Implications
p
and
expectations for
f
Used and New Car
markets
35,5
-4,1%
0,7%
34,0
34,2
• Falling used car
prices as a direct
result of scrap
p
incentives
25,0
20,0
16,8
15,0
-8,5%
15,4
-1,4%
15,2
-7,4%
• Reducing
consumer desire
to buy a new car
14,1
10 0
10,0
5,0
0,0
2007
2008E
Used Cars sale
2009E
2010E
New Cars and LCV sale
1) Western European
EU152
A t i
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
EFTA33
F
France
Germany
Luxembourg
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
Sweden
Iceland
Norway
UK
Switzerland
Spain
71
Cars
A
The used vehicle sales channel mix implies demand for all main
modes of logistics transport,
transport storage and refurbishment activities
LCV/MB
HCV/B
Local - regional
trade
National trade
International trade
• Private sales
• Relatives
• Professional drivers
National
vehicles
traders
Private
buyer
Used
car
seller
• Independent used car outlets
• Dealers
• Franchised network
Regional
sale
centers
t
• Independent car traders
• Online & Physical auctions
• Rental companies
International
vehicles
t d
traders
Remarketing
centers
Main modes of transport used by
Automotive Logistics operators
Main modes of transport used by Automotive Logistics operators
Transport
activities
Heavy Trucks
on Roads
.
. .
. .
. .
Specialized
Wagons on Rail
. . . . .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Barges on
Rivers
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
Heavy Trucks
on Roads
. . . . . . . . . .
. .
.
.
. .
Barges on
Ri
Rivers
Specialized
Wagons on Rail
Specialized
Ships on Sea
.
.
.
.
Storage and
refurbishment
activities
Sales flow
with
implications
for European
Outbound
Automotive
Logistics
• Independent car traders
• Online & Physical auctions
• Rental companies
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . . .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
Distribution centers managed by Automotive Logistics operators
..
.
...
Fully Multimodal
Port Terminal
1) Port Terminals
2)
) Inland Compounds
p
.
..
..
..
...
.
..
..
..
..
..
..
...
. .
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
... ...
. .
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
. .
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
... ...
. .
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
. .
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
... ...
. .
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
. .
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
... ...
. .
.. ..
.. ..
.. ..
.
..
..
..
... .. ..
. . .
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
.. .. ..
..
..
.
..
..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
...
..
...
...
..
...
..
.
...
.
..
...
..
...
..
.
...
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
.
..
..
River
Rail
.
.
.
.
.
..
..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
...
..
.
... ..
.. ..
. .
. .
.. ..
.. ..
. .
. .
...
..
...
..
. . . . .
. .
.
.
Street
.
...
.
Sea
Source: ECG
72
A
Cars
A stable Used Car Market guarantees more stability to
the European Outbound Automotive Logistics Sector
Western European1 used car average annual
transport volumes forecast
Transport demand at 10% of the Used Cars sold in
WE
Mil Cars
25,0
20,0
20,4
3,6
(17,5%)
-7,2%
18,9
-0,8%
15,0
Expectations for the
1
Western European
p
Outbound Automotive
logistics market
The used car
average annual
transport volume can
be estimated at 5%5%
10% of the used cars
sold every year in
Western Europe
10,0
5,0
0,0
16,8
(82,5%)
-8,5%
2007
-1,9%
18,6
3,5
3,4
-4,1%
(18,7%)
(18,3%)
15,4
(81,3%)
-1,4%
2008E
Credit Suisse Cars and
LCV sales forecast
15,2
(81,7%)
-5,9%
0,7%
-7,4%
2009E
17,5
3,4
(19,6%)
14,1
(80,4%)
5,0%
3,5
1,1% (18,9%)
5,9%
2010E
used car annual transport
volume at 10% of the
Used Cars sold in WE
18,3
14,9
(81,1%)
4,1%
1,4%
4,7%
2011E
19,1
0,9%
3,5
(18,4%)
1,1%
15,6
(81,6%)
Implication for the
European
p
Outbound
Sector
0,9%
2012E
CAGR E09-E12
% changeYoY
Transport demand at 5% of the Used Cars sold in WE
Mil Cars
20,0
18,6
-7,8%
16,0
1,8
(9,6%)
-0,8%
17,2
-1,7%
16,9
-4,1%
1,8
1,7
(10,3%)
(10,1%)
-6,6%
0,7%
15,8
1,7
(10,9%)
(10
9%)
5,4%
16,6
1,7
1,1%
(10,4%)
4,4%
17,3
1,8
(10,1%)
0,9%
1,4%
4,7%
15,6
(89,9%)
0,9%
1,1%
The European
Automotive Outbound
Logistics Sector,
selling services to both
new and used vehicle
industries, is more
diversified, stable and
predictable than the
Automotive Sector
12,0
8,0
16,8
15,4
(90,4%) -8,5% (89,7%)
-1,4%
15,2
(89,9%)
-7,4%
14,1
(89,1%)
5,9%
14,9
(89,6%)
4,0
0,0
2007
2008E
Credit Suisse Cars and
LCV sales forecast
2009E
2010E
used car annual transport
volume at 5% of the
Used Cars sold in WE
2011E
CAGR E09-E12
2012E
% changeYoY
1) Western European
EU152
A t i
Austria
Source: ECG estimates
2) EU15: Member Countries in the EU prior to the accession of ten candidate Countries
on 1 May 2004
3) European Free Trade Association (EFTA) 4 Members: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway
and Switzerland
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
EFTA33
F
France
Germany
Luxembourg
Greece
Netherlands
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
Spain
Iceland
Sweden
Norway
UK
Switzerland
73
B-1
Overcapacity has been and will continue to be an issue for the
Automotive Industry for many years
European Automotive Industry capacity utilization estimates
100%
2007
97%
2008
97%
95%
90%
91%
91%
90%
89%
86%
85%
85%
83%
81%
81%
80%
80%
84%
82%
79%
77%
75%
70%
68%
65%
62%
60%
55%
50%
BMW
Toyota
y
GM
Ford
Daimler
VW
Fiat
PSA
Automotive Industry
overcapacity rationale
Automotive industry
p
y is explained
p
overcapacity
by three converging
factors:
• The 20th century
obsession with volume
growth
• History of state and
family support
• Lack of historical
consolidation because of
o history of political
opposition to capacity
closure
l
and
d
consolidation
o potential consolidation
hindered by competition
regulations
Implications for the
Automotive Industry
European automotive
manufacturers are not building
to order (even if the opposite
is often declared):
• A new car can stay in a
compound for up to six
months before it is sold
• There will be enough cars to
satisfy Continental European
demand if the European
automotive industry stops
producing cars for a year
Renault
Source: ECG,Credit Suisse
74
B-1
Overcapacity has generated overproduction and consequently
a phenomenon of stocking and destocking
Western and Eastern Europe car production and
related global sales volumes by quarter
Stocking
Overproduction
Automotive sector’s
addiction to volume
growth has generated
overproduction
• In addition,
manufacturers have
frequently increased
production to meet
commitments to
suppliers
Car stock
growth
6,5
2007-2008
Stocking
All Automotive
Manufacturers
have closed 2008
with excess
inventories
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
Car stock
decrease
5,9
5,7 5,7
Destocking
Stocking
Car stock
growth
6,1
2009 Destocking
5,7
5,0
5,4
5,3
4,9
5,1
5,0
4,7
4,9
4,6
4,4 4,4
4,4
4,0
4,1
4,0
3,9
3,5
4,4
4,4
4,0
4,1
4,2
3,9
3,7 3,6
3,5
4,5
Manufacturers have taken
drastic measures to reduce
inventories in Q1-09 through
production volume cuts by:
• Short-time working hours
• Reducing shift numbers
• Temporary plant shut-downs
3,7
3,7
3,0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007
New car sales
2008
Car production
2009
Stocking
E2010
Destocking
Source: JDPower
75
B-1
Automotive Outbound Logistics Services sales volumes are
consequently more stable than those from the sale of vehicles
Driver
Stocking and destocking generates volatility in
manufacturer sales volumes
Stocking and destocking generates a consistent need for
transport and warehousing services
Western and Eastern Europe car production and related global
sales volumes by quarter
% changeYoY
in car sales
Car production
6,5
6,0
5,7 5,7
5,5
5,0
Business
stability
5,9
New car sales
6,5
6,0
5,7
5,5
5,0
5,4
5,3
4,7
4,9
4,6
4,4 4,4
4,4
4,0
4,1
4,0
,
3,9
3,5
4,4
4,4
4,0
4,1
5,9
5,7 5,7
6,1
5,7
5,0
Destocking
4,9
3,7
3,0
Stocking
4,5
4,4 4,4
4,1
4,0
4,0
3,7
New car sale
Demand for car
Logistics
Services
4,6
3,9
,
3,7 3,6
3,5
4,5
4,2
% changeYoY in car
outbound demand
for Logistics Services
Cars production
Stocking
5,0
4,9
5,1
5,0
4,5
6,1
Western and Eastern Europe car production and related sales
volumes Vs. demand for car Logistics Services by quarter
3,5
4,4
4,0
4,5
4,2
Unwanted stocks have been
largely removed and so supply
will probably be from 2010 more
in line with demand
3,0
2007
2008
-5,9%
2009
-12,8%
Highly volatile volumes
E2010
-8,9%
2007
2008
-5,1%
2009
-16,7%
E2010
-1,9%
Less volatile demand
Source: JDPower
76
B-2
Automotive Manufacturers with longer production lead times are able
to satisfy demand better by putting buffer stock into the supply chain
Order to delivery lead time
Historical development in vehicle sourcing breakdown in Europe 41
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
47%
40%
9%
48%
30%
10%
14%
20%
10%
0%
1994
34%
9%
Dealer stock
1997
29%
Distribution center
/Compounds
Order to
delivery lead
time
Order to delivery
lead time is
mostly composed
of three main
components
• Manufacturer
order lead time
• Delivery lead
time
• Stock
50%
51%
15%
54%
8%
13%
46%
5%
4%
15%
1999
26%
Transfer
Manufacturers
with longer
production
lead times are
able to satisfy
demand
better by
putting unsold
stock into the
supply chain
2005
35%
Customer
order input
Stock
order
Last order
amend
Manufacturer order
lead time
Order
bank
Typical
order to
deliver
process
Dealer
order
Production
Region
order
Delivery lead
time
Shipping
Factory
order
Schedule
Delivery
Stock
Stock
Factory
Sale to
production dealer
Buffer stock
Order (pipeline
factory)
2002
28%
Outbound supply
chain is often
used as a stock
y
buffer by
automotive
manufacturers
generating
storage and postproduction
demand that is
not dependant on
production
volumes
Implication for
the European
p
Outbound
Automotive
Logistics Sector
Supply chain
stock buffer
created by
manufacturers
f
generates a
more stable
need for
transport and
postproduction
services
Sell
Delivery
to
dealer
Dealer
sell
1) Europe 4
UK
Italy
France
Germany
Source: ECG together with SMI, DLA and EBS (base on the results of the 2005 survey to European Manufacturers, National Distributors, Dealers, and Logistics Companies in the most
important European automotive markets [France, Germany, Italy and UK])
77
C
The Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector can proactively manage
radical changes in geographical location of production and demand
Countries characterized by:
• Low and flexible labor cost base
• (also) favorable legal system
• (also) stable political system
European
Outbound
Automotive
Logistics
European
Outbound
Automotive
Logistics
service
operators
mostly provide
multimodal
transport and
warehousing
h
i
services
Source: ECG, Credit Suisse
• European Automotive Manufacturers
will continue to find legal exit plans to
reduce/close/relocate
d
/ l
/ l
production
d
i
• History of political opposition to
capacity closure
• Manufacturing base is also unlikely
Growing demand for
to survive in its current form, and
logistics services to
plant closures appear inevitable,
connect distant
probably starting in Spain or
European locations
S d
Sweden
China
India
CEE Countries
Brazil
The ECG “the four forces
driving the location of the
demand points” theory
The location of the two points
mostly depends on the
following four drivers:
• Increasing interest of
manufacturers in relocating
to emerging low cost
countries
• Difficulty of sustaining
production in Western Europe
• Trends in new vehicle global
d
demand
d
• Trends in used vehicle
demand
Trends for already built
production plants located in
Western Europe
• European Automotive Manufacturers’ main
interest (after sales volume and market
share) is to reduce production costs. The
most effective way to achieve this is to
relocate plants to low-cost countries
• The most attractive locations to build plants
are currently :

The ECG “two
diverging
points” theory
points
The allocation of
transport assets
to routes depends
on the point of
departure and that
of arrival
• The more these
2 points
reciprocally
diverge in
location, the
more the
demand for
Outbound
Logistic Services
increases
Trends in vehicle production
in Western Europe
Vehicle production (Manufacturers)
Outbound Logistics Service Providers
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. . . . . Heavy Trucks
. .
.
. on Roads
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Specialized Train
Wagons on Rail
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. ..
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
..
..
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
..
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
..
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
..
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . . .
. . .
.
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
..
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
. .
.
. .
..
..
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
..
.
. .
. .
. .
.
European Outbound Automotive
Logistics service providers are
required to:
• Physically connect very
different locations
• Quickly adapt to change in
geographical demand trends
(buyer side)
• Quickly adapt to change in
geographical production
trends (production side)
Barges on
Rivers
.
.
.
.
. .
Implications for European
Outbound Automotive
Logistics
.
.
. .
.
.
.
Specialized
Ships on Sea
Vehicle demand (Buyers)
Trends in new vehicle
demand and implication for
the Logistics sector
Trends in used vehicle
demand and implications for
the Logistics sector
The main share of new vehicle demand
for European automotive manufacturers
will remain in Western Europe but
• Russia will soon become attractive.
• Credit Suisse expectations for 2010
new cars and LCV sales volumes put
Russian volumes second only to those
of France and Germany and from
2012 put Russia second to Germany
China, India and Brazil will absorb
European production too due to
their huge potential
The main share of used vehicle demand
in continental Europe will remain in
Western Europe
• With a mixed impact on the
Outbound Logistics Sector since
transactions are mostly managed
locally
The main share of exported used
European cars will go to CEE Countries
(mostly Russia) and to Africa
• With a big impact on the Outbound
Logistics Sector since transactions
are mostly international
• The vast majority of fixed
assets used in Automotive
Outbound Logistics are fixed
only from an auditing point of
view In reality they can be
view.
moved to where demand is
growing. They can be
relocated from one day to
another anywhere in Europe
(and for ships anywhere
globally)
78
C
Automotive Outbound Logistics Sector can proactively manage radical
changes in geographical location of demand
Trends in new
vehicle demand
and implications
for the Logistics
sector
Most new vehicle
demand for European
automotive
manufacturers will
remain in Western
Europe but, given their
low car density and
current GDP there is
huge potential for large
and highly populated
regions to increase in
relative importance:
• Russia will soon
become the most
attractive country
• China, India and
Brazil will absorb
European production
too due to their huge
potential
Car Density vs
vs. GDP in 2008
Car density
( Cars per 1.000
inhabitants)
650
Italy
600
Canada
Australia
Germany
550
Switzerland
France
Belgium
Slovenia
500
Key Countries of ECG interest for new cars sales volumes
(Historical and Credit Suisse expectations)
UK
Austria
450
Spain
Greece
Poland
400
Japan
18,0
Finland
Norway
Portugal
Sweden
Netherlands
Ireland
Czech Republic
Denmark
350
16,0
14,0
USA
Unit
sales in
Mil
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
Hungary
2,0
300
Slovakia
Croatia
250
South Korea
Taiwan
Russia
200
Ukraine
100
2.006
2.007
2008
2009E
2010E
2011E
1,2
1,5
1,7
1,7
1,9
2,0
2,1
2,3
China
5,4
6,7
8,0
8,6
11,0
10,5
11,0
11,5
Brazil
Rumania
150
2.005
India
1,6
1,8
2,4
2,7
3,0
2,7
2,9
2012E
3,0
Russia
1,6
2,0
2,6
3,0
1,7
2,1
2,5
2,9
Wester Europe
16,5
16,7
16,8
15,4
15,2
14,1
14,9
15,6
Malaysia
South Africa
Brazil
50
Philippines
India
0
Thailand
China
Indonesia
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
GDP PPP per capita,
capita (USD)
Source: J.D. Power, Global Insight, Eurostat , Roland Berger, ECG, Credit Suisse
79
D
Assets used in Automotive Outbound Logistics can be sold or
disposed of easily (1 of 2)
Driver
Aprox value Amortization Pledged as
period
debt security
(in /000€)
Asset Type
Heavy Trucks
on Roads
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
Assets
residual
value
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
150
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
More
probable
Scrap
value
(Minimal)
15-20
Years
Yes
Market
value
Very
easy
Market
value
Low:
• Niche market
• Few local buyers
• Wagon standards (mostly
size and weight) vary
from Country to Country
Very
easy
Market
value
Low:
• Globally very small niche
market
• Few local buyers
Very
easy
Scrap
value
. .
. .
. .
10.000
10
000
–
15.000
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
25-30
Years
Yes
Scrap
value
More
probable
. .
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
. . . .
. . .
.
.
.
. .
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
40.000
–
60.000
15-20
Y
Years
Yes
Scrap
l
value
Very
easy
No
History of
political
opposition to
capacity closure
and
consolidation
Market
l
value
.
Plant and machinery
700.000
Up
5-20
Years
Yes
Ability to sell
the asset
Medium:
• Fragmented market
• Low entry barrier (price)
• Truck legal max size vary
from Country to Country
More
probable
Specialized
Ships on Sea
. .
Residual
value (Max)
.
Barges on
Rivers
.
Yes
Ability to scrap/
divest the asset
More
probable
.
.
.
3-5
Years
.
Specialized Train
Wagons on Rail
Residual value
of the main
asset used in
the Outbound
Automotive
Logistics
Industry
Residual value of
the main asset used
in the Automotive
Industry
170
Residual
value (Min)
No
Medium:
• Oligopolistic market
• Global fleet of RoRo
vessels relatively small if
compared with other
cargo1 fleets
Very difficult to be sold
individually
• History of bundle
transactions when a
division/firm-wide
M&A deal happens
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics
sector is flexible in selling or disposing of assets
Source: ECG
1) Container, DryBulk, Tunkers, etc
80
D
Assets used in Automotive Outbound Logistics can be sold or
disposed of easily (2 of 2)
Driver
Aprox value Average
LDT1
(in /000€)
Asset Type
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
Assets
. .
. .
. .
residual
. .
value
Residual value
of the main
Barges on
asset used in Rivers
the Outbound
Automotive
. . . . . . . . .
Logistics
Industry
150
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
Residual value
of the main
asset used in
the Automotive
Industry
. .
.
. .
. .
. . . .
. . . .
. . . .
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. . .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
20
38
900
. .
. .
10.000
–
15.000
.
2.500
3.500
A peak of 800
USD/LDT in 2008
800
(Minimal)
3-4
700
600
500
Currently at 300
USD/LDT (210€/LDT)
(Minimal)
4-8
500
–
750
400
300
Average Mkt
Value i
(in 000 /€)
(age:95 to 00)
8 – 30
(age:00 to 05)
8 - 45
(age:05 to 09)
30 - 80
Typically go to
scrap because
of the very
small size of
the used
market
Typically
yp
y go
g to
scrap because
of the very
small size of
the used
market
200
.
. .
. .
. .
15
20
.
Specialized
Ships on Sea
. .
170
.
Specialized Train
Wagons on Rail
.
Average
Scrap Value
(in 000 /€)
USD/
LDT1
Heavy Trucks
on Roads
.
General cargo historical scrap values 2per LDT1
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
.
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
. .
.
.
. .
.
. .
. .
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
. .
.
.
.
. .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
.
.
40.000
–
65.000
8.000
100
18.100
Recently volatile market
1.700
–
4.000
25.000
–
55.000
0
Plant and machinery
700.000
Up
No
No
The European Automotive Outbound Logistics
sector is flexible in selling or disposing of assets
Source: ECG extraction
1) Ship-owners and buyers negotiate scrap prices based on factors such as the ship's empty weight (called light ton displacement or LDT) and prices in the scrap metal market
2) Values refer to general cargo vessels like RoRo's and MultiPurpose's. In general bulkers obtain slight less and tankers, especially VLCC's, slighly more
81
E
It is very likely that, in the case of Automotive Outbound Logistics Operators,
profitability and market share are positively correlated
The Finished Vehicle Logistics Sector is less risky than the Automotive Industry
Driver
Western European markets are quite mature and
highly competitive, while emerging markets are less
mature but still highly competitive
Automotive Outbound Logistics operators can quickly move
services where new or used vehicles demand is
Car Density vs. Gdp in 2008
More
mature
markets
Automotive Outbound Logistics operators do not work
with volume-binding exclusive agreements and they
can divert service offering where demand is
Car density
( Cars per 1,000
inhabitants)
1
Logistics operator
2
Logistics operator
3
Logistics operator
4
Logistics operator
5
Logistics operator
7
Logistics operator
650
Italy
600
550
Switzerland
France
Slovenia
500
Business
cycle
Canada
Australia
Germany
UK
Belgium
Austria
Finland
Norway
Portugal
450
Spain
Sweden
Japan
USA
Netherlands
Greece
Poland
400
Ireland
Czech Republic
Denmark
350
Hungary
300
Slovakia
Croatia
250
Taiwan
R
Russia
i
200
Western and
Eastern European
Automotive
manufacturers
tend to favor
business relations
with no more than
one or two
logistics operators
Rumania
150
Ukraine
100
Malaysia
South Africa
Brazil
50
Philippines
India
0
Less
mature
t
markets
South Korea
Logistics Operators are
always looking for
longer contracts. Oneor two-year contracts
are rare
.
Thailand
China
Indonesia
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
GDP PPP per capita, (USD)
To gain market share, profitability often needs to be
sacrificed
.
Global used
Car Market
Exclusive agreements (not binding for
Manufacturers in terms of volume levels
guaranteed to Logistics providers)
Spot agreements
It is very likely that profitability and market share are
positively correlated
(eg.: their values can move together and in the same direction)
Source: ECG, Roland Berger
82
F
Financial Comparison between European Automotive Manufacturers and
Outbound Automotive Logistics Business Models (1 of 7): Methodology used
European Outbound Logistics Operators analyzed
Note
Developing a
comprehensive financial
benchmark between a well
known sector composed of
highly sophisticated and
publicly traded global firms
and another sector mostly
composed of small private
businesses located
everywhere in continental
Europe is a complex task
because:
1) Many European
countries (both western
and eastern) do not
require local companies
to publish their financial
statements
2) Even if published,
financial statements
often contain:
• only a synthetic set of
information
• line items that may
differ in term of local
standards and
meaning
Approach used in
the Financial
Benchmark
Given the complexity of the
task, ECG has chosen to keep
all as simple and
straightforward as possible
1)) A botto
bottom up approach
app oac has
as
been chosen
2) Logistics Sector: Only ECG
member companies have
been considered as
representative of European
Outbound Automotive
Logistics
g
g
given their
significance
• ECG member volumes
represent approximately
80% of the new vehicles
processed by the
European Finished
Vehicles Logistics
g
industry
y
3) Automotive Sector: the
most representative
European players have
been considered
Neutrality
ECG has chosen to
collect data only
from public sources:
1) Investor
relations web
sites for
Manufacturers
2) Dun &
Bradstreet
European
database for
Outbound
Logistics
Operators
55 financial
f
l
statements of
ECG Members
(out of 92
members or
equivalent to
57% of all
2009 ECG
members)
were available
and have
been bought
from the D&B
international
d t b
database
36 companies
presented
comprehensive
(65% of the 55).
They have been
allocated to one of six
Logistics Segments
1)Pure Trucks
2)Trucks & Ports
3)Trucks & Wagons
4)Mostly Ships
5)Port & Terminals
6)Multimodal
Average
financial
statements
have been
created for
each segment
An additional
average financial
statement
representative
of all six subsegments (and
of the
Automotive
Outbound
Logistics Sector)
has been
created taking
an average of
the previous six
financial
statements
European Automotive Manufacturers analyzed
The eight most
significant European
manufacturers have
been chosen and their
have been downloaded
from their web sites
Source: Dun & Bradstreet European Comprehensive Reports, BMW, Daimler, Fiat, Renault, Volkswagen, PSA Peugeot Citroën, MAN, Volvo, ECG analysis
83
F
Financial Comparison between European Automotive Manufacturers and Outbound
Automotive Logistics Business Models (2 of 7): Robustness of the sample
55 financial statements obtained from D&B Database1
Geographical significance of the Companies
in the sample
EU152
Austria
Representatives of
the 92 2009 ECG
members vs the
Outbound
Automotive
Logistics sector
Data from ECG
members can be
considered
representative of
the Continental
Europe Outbound
Automotive
Logistics market
• ECG member
volumes represent
approximately
80% of the new
vehicles
processed by the
entire European
Finished Vehicles
Logistics industry
Ireland
FRIKUS Friedrich
Kraftwagentransport/Speditions
(frikus.com)
Hödlmayr International
(hoedlmayr.com)
UK
NVD
(nvd.ie)
Italy
Lagermax Autotransport
(lagermax.com)
Medway Ports
(medwayports.com)
Grimaldi Group
VEGA International Car
Transport & Logistics
(lagermax.com)
F. LLI ELIA -Ambrosetti
autologistics
(ambrosettiautologistics.it)
Belgium
Autotrade & Logistics
(autotradeandlogistics.it)
Volvo Group Belgium
en-gb/services)
Bertani Trasporti
ICO terminals
(icoterminals.com)
i-FAST Automotive
Logistics
(i-fast.it)
Finland
SADA
(sadagroup.com)
Avelon Autologistics
(avelongroup.com)
Finnlines
(finnlines.com)
Netherlands
Verbrugge Terminals
(verbrugge.nl)
Spain
TEA
(N.A.)
Bergé Automotive
Logistics
(bergeycia.es)
STVA
(stva.fr)
Autoterminal
(autoterminal.es)
GEFCO
( f
(gefco.net)
t)
Trapiser
(trapiser.com)
Köhler France
(kohlerfrance.eu)
Tradisa Operador
Logístico
(tradisa.es)
Germany
Internationale Spedition
p
Willi Betz
(willibetz.de)
Horst Mosolf
(mosolf.de)
Helf Automobil-Logistik
(helf-al.de)
Brockmüller Spedition
(central-asia.de)
ATG Autotransportlogistics
(atglogistics.com)
ECM (Vehicle
Delivery Service)
(ecmvds.co.uk)
D F Services
(N.A.)
Sample
chosen
AutoLogic Holdings
(autologic.co.uk)
Greece
Global Maritime Agency
(glomar.gr)
EU253
Estonia
OÜ Toptrans Baltic
(toptrans.ee)
Síntax Logística
(sintax.com)
Autoverslas
(autoverslas.lt)
HERTRANSUS
Hertransus
(hertransus.lt)
EFTA24
Norway
Toquero Express
(toquero.com)
Höegh Autoliners
(hoegh.com)
Sweden
36
companies
presented
complete
financial
statements
(65% of the
55)
In terms of geographical area of coverage, the 36
companies are highly representative of the areas
where European Outbound Automotive Logistics
operators generate the highest share of their business
The sample can pass a robustness test with an
average representativeness for the overall
European Outbound Automotive Logistics sector
• Exceptions may be possible
Geographical significance of the Companies
in the sample
Lithuania
Setram
(autoterminal.es)
Groupe CAT
(groupecat.com)
Werner Egerland
(egerland.de)
Terra Handels- und
Speditionsgesellschaft
(terra-spedition.de)
Ontime Automotive
(ontime-auto.com)
Interrijn
(interrijn.com)
SE Mäkinen Logistics
(se-makinen.fi)
Walon France
(walon.fr)
Brit European
Transport
(briteuropean.com)
Lucas Logistics
Autotransport
(lucaslogistics.nl)
Freeport of Finland
(freeport fi)
(freeport.fi)
France
The
e 36 companies
co pa es used as a sample
sa p e represent:
ep ese t
• 85% of the ECG companies active in the EU152
• 70% of the ECG companies active in the EU253
• 60% of the ECG companies active in the EU15 + EFTA
Spirit Autologistics
(spiritautolog.com)
Autolink
(autolink.as)
Wallenius
(2wglobal.com)
SkandiaTransport
(skandiatransport.se)
Source: ECG
1) Dun & Bradstreet European Comprehensive Reports
36 Companies
36 Companies relative relative share of
share of the total
vehicles processed
turnover of ECG
by ECG Members in
Members in 2007
2007
Pure trucks
42%
47%
Trucks & Ports
72%
81%
Trucks & Wagons
53%
53%
Mostly Ships
73%
54%
Ports & Terminals
80%
76%
Pure barges
0%
0%
Multimodal
53%
55%
All 36 combined
59%
56%
Time 80%
43%
42%
In terms of relative share of ECG turnover and
vehicles processed, the 36 companies are
representative of the overall European Outbound
Automotive Logistics sector
84
F
Outbound Automotive Logistics Business Models (3 of 7)
European Automotive Manufacturers: fixed assets and revenues (2007-8)
Fixed assets in €/Bil
2007
88,4
,
72,1 74,0
55,8 61,4
31,2 32,3
20,4 22,5
Daimler
2008
73,7
,
BMW
Fiat
VW
Renault
37,0 37,0
22,8 21,9
13,9 17,1
PSA
6,4 5,5
Volvo
MAN
Automotive
Revenues in €/Bil
/
2007
108,9113,8
99,4 96,7
56,8 54,6
58,5 59,4
BMW
Fiat
2008
40,7 37,8
60,4 54,9
59,3 59,3
34,8 37,9
14,8 15,3
Daimler
VW
Renault
PSA
Volvo
MAN
Automotive
“AVERAGE” Outbound Automotive Logistics Business Models: fixed assets and revenues (2007-8)
Fixed assets in €/Mil
NOTE: The
concept of
“Average”
Business Model
Each segment or
sector figure
presented in the
box on the right
represents an
ideal average
“INDIVIDUAL”
company and not
the
sum/combination
/consolidation of
any firms
composing the
segment or the
sector under
analysis
2007
2.046,8
2008
1584,9
14,4 17,5
Pure trucks
58,0 63,5
Trucks & Ports
58,5 53,7
Trucks & Wagons
48,1 56,0
Mostly Ships
Ports & Terminals
81,2 81,1
Multimodal
48,6 82,8
Outbound Logistics
Revenues in €/Mil
919,8
34,8 21,7
59,9 56,5
Pure trucks
Trucks & Ports
Trucks & Wagons
2007
1 031 9
1.031,9
116,6 104,7
2008
480,8 510,8
74,1 90,8
Mostly Ships
Ports & Terminals
European
Automotive
Logistics operators
are much smaller
than Automotive
Manufacturers:
• On average
Logistics
Operators fixed
assets are 0,2%
of that of
Automotive
Manufacturers
• On average
Logistics Operator
revenues are
0,1% of those of
Automotive
M
Manufacturers
f
41,1 64,9
Multimodal
Outbound Logistics
Source: Dun & Bradstreet European Comprehensive Reports BMW, Daimler, Fiat, Renault, Volkswagen, PSA Peugeot Citroën, MAN, Volvo, ECG analysis
85
F
Breakdown of 2008 EBITDA
100,0%
1,8%
8,4%
9,9%
75,0%
11,6%
8 6%
8,6%
1,8%
13,6%
4,7%
1,6%
0,0%
5,7%
11,5%
6,6%
9,6%
Each segment or
sector figure
presented in the
box on the right
represents an
ideal average
“INDIVIDUAL”
company and not
the
sum/combination
/consolidation of
any firms
composing the
segment or the
sector under
analysis
5,9%
6,5%
5,0%
,
5 2%
5,2%
14,3%
4,2%
7,0%
Implications
12,1%
The cost structure of the
Finished Vehicle Logistics
industry is much better
suited to face market
fluctuations
1) Less than 40% of
the costs being fixed
2) It is governed by
relatively flexible
work
k arrangements
t
• In the road
transport segment
for example,
subcontracting is a
common practice
and in the case of
a major downturn
of the market
p
companies
concentrate on the
use of their own
fleet and drivers
• Even in-house
personnel can be
laid off much more
easily than in the
automotive
manufacturing
sector where
unions are
powerful and the
pressure from
governments high
3) Additionally,
increases in flexible
costs (fuel prices,
mileage taxes) can
be recovered
through contractual
arrangements with
the clients
13,3%
39,1%
50,0%
NOTE: The
concept of
“Average”
Business Model
5,0%
14 8%
14,8%
13,6%
26,8%
25,0%
2,6%
1,3%
0,9%
12,0%
97,4%
53,2%
83,1%
64,3%
,
58 8%
58,8%
69,1%
63,5%
35,2%
0,0%
Pure
trucks
Trucks &
Trucks &
Ports
Wagons
Mostly
Ships
Ports &
Terminals
Multimodal
EBIT
Other operating costs
Amortization, depreciation
Personnel costs
Outbound
Logistics
Automotive
Cost of services sold
Breakdown of 2007 EBITDA
100,0%
4,7%
4 3%
4,3%
12,7%
75,0%
21,6%
7,8%
,
6,7%
5,4%
15,1%
6,7%
8,6%
18,2%
14,2%
50,0%
25,0%
0,9%
0,9%
1,1%
6,1%
5,0%
,
12,0%
5,1%
56,7%
79,6%
,
55,4%
8,7%
4,6%
4,9%
14,6%
5,9%
,
7,2%
11,4%
67,2%
62,4%
Outbound
g
Logistics
Automotive
32,0%
91,1%
61,9%
4,5%
1,6%
0 9%
0,9%
13,4%
13,0%
45,8%
European
Automotive
Logistics
business
models show
on average
more
flexibility in
the P&L than
Automotive
Manufacturers due to a
higher share
of variable
costs
0,0%
Pure
trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
Mostly
Ships
Ports &
Terminals
Multimodal
86
F
European Automotive Manufacturers average number of employees and cost/employee (2007-8)
41,9
38,6
69,8
72,3
37,6
37,6
Number of
employees
44,2
42,7
43,3
42,6
43,3
42,6
37,1
44,1
54,3
54,6
46,4
46,9
Personnel
cost/year
in €/000
369.928
329.305
272.382
273.216
NOTE: The
concept of
“Average”
Business Model
Each segment or
sector figure
presented in the
box on the right
represents an
ideal average
“INDIVIDUAL”
company and not
the
sum/combination
/consolidation of
any firms
composing the
segment or the
sector under
analysis
2007
207.850
201 690
201.690
198.348
198
348
185.227
174.190 174.190
130.179 129.068
107.539
100.041
110.700
2008
101.308
50.339 51.321
D i l
Daimler
BMW
Fi t
Fiat
VW
R
Renault
lt
PSA
V l
Volvo
MAN
Automotive
(average)
Outbound Automotive Logistics Business Models average number of employees and cost/employee (2007-8)
37,2
39,2
42,0
44,8
54,9
49,3
40,9
3.151
42,8
55,1
54,7
50,8
53,5
47,2
47,1
Personnel
cost/year
in €/000
• European
Automotive
Logistics
operators
have on
average a
workforce
kf
99% times
smaller than
that at
Automotive
Manufacturers
• Average cost
per employee
is in line
between the
two sectors
3.273
2007
Number of
employees
1.269
2008
1.148
905
649
920
431
192
156
Pure trucks
260
172
Trucks & Ports
129
121
Trucks & Wagons
Mostly Ships
Ports & Terminals
Multimodal
Outbound Logistics
(average)
87
F
Breakdown of Liability and Owners’ Equity 2008
100,0%
,
35,7%
25,2%
75,0%
39,4%
56,3%
31,6%
53,0%
23,3%
39,3%
Total
Shareholders’
Equity
50,0%
64,3%
NOTE: The
concept of
“Average”
Business Model
Each segment or
sector figure
presented in the
box on the right
represents an
ideal
“INDIVIDUAL”
company and not
the
sum/combination
/consolidation of
any firms
composing the
segment or the
sector under
analysis
74 8%
74,8%
25,0%
60,6%
43,7%
68,4%
47,0%
76 7%
76,7%
Total Liabilities
60,7%
European
Automotive
Logistics
business
models
generally
feature private
ownership
combined with
much lower
debt-to-equity
ratio than
Automotive
Manufacturers
0,0%
Pure
trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
Mostly Ships
Ports &
Terminals
Multimodal
Outbound Automotive
Logistics
Breakdown of Liability and Owners’ Equity 2007
100,0%
29,9%
23,2%
75,0%
53,4%
44,3%
32 4%
32,4%
47,5%
25,2%
42,8%
Total
Shareholders’
Equity
50,0%
70,1%
76,8%
25 0%
25,0%
46,6%
55,7%
67,6%
52 5%
52,5%
74,8%
Total Liabilities
57,2%
,
0,0%
Pure
trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
Mostly Ships
Ports &
Terminals
Multimodal
Outbound Automotive
Logistics
88
F
Leverage and Debt Coverage Financial Ratios 2008
Number of companies analysed because
available in the European D&B database
with both P&L and BS Data for that year
NOTE: The
concept of
“Average”
Business Model
Each segment or
sector figure
presented in the
box on the right
represents an
ideal
“INDIVIDUAL”
company and not
the
sum/combination
/consolidation of
any firms
composing the
segment or the
sector under
analysis
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt/Total Assets
Total Interest Bearing Debts/Total Assets
Total Debt/Equity
Long Term Debt/Equity
Net Interest Bearing Debt/EBITDA
EBIT/Interests
EBITDA / (Taxes + Interest + Current
Portion of LongTermDebt)
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Financial Leverage Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
DEBT COVERAGE RATIOS
Interest Covered Ratio
Cashflow coverage of taxes, interests &
CPLTD
8
5
2
3
2
26
6
Benchmark 2008
Mostly
Ports &
Ships
Terminals Multimodal
8
Pure
trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
Outbound
Logistics Automotive
61,1%
24,1%
171,2%
101,8%
66,7%
52,5%
265,2%
177,3%
34,8%
0,6%
61,8%
10,1%
54,4%
38,0%
138,2%
93,6%
43,2%
28,5%
81,5%
0,0%
62,5%
15,7%
197,9%
44,5%
54,5%
35,2%
138,9%
85,3%
63,7%
44,0%
272,8%
91,4%
1,84
1,37
1
37
3,71
1,92
1
92
0,31
(26,65)
(26
65)
4,40
1,58
1
58
1,10
1,18
1
18
0,82
2,26
2
26
3,84
1,56
1
56
4,70
3,06
3
06
5,29
0,93
7,94
0,79
0,68
1,08
0,80
0,29
3
7
36
8
Leverage and Debt Coverage Financial Ratios 2007
RATIOS CALCULATION
METHODOLOGIES
Total Debt/Equity
EBIT/Interests
EBITDA / (Taxes + Interest + Current
Portion of LongTermDebt)
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Cashflow coverage of taxes, interests &
CPLTD
Automotive
Manufacturers
Long Term
credit ratings
at 16/1/2010
from:
• Moody's,
• Standard &
Poor's
• Fitch
14
7
2
Pure
trucks
Trucks &
Ports
Trucks &
Wagons
62,2%
17,3%
208,1%
48,6%
71,5%
41,1%
308,3%
164,7%
35,9%
8,7%
67,2%
26,5%
46,4%
35,8%
104,8%
68,6%
42,8%
20,0%
90,0%
14,3%
62,3%
21,2%
192,5%
41,5%
48,3%
33,0%
113,0%
64,7%
61,0%
39,5%
242,4%
77,9%
0,83
5,48
3,77
2,42
3,41
0,64
3,20
6,11
0,98
1,74
0,78
8,77
2,80
5,50
3,06
9,06
0,82
0,87
0,75
0,98
1,10
1,04
0,98
0,40
In investment,
the bond credit
rating assesses
the credit
worthiness of a
possible
corporation's
debt issues
ssues
Porsche Ag
Daf trucks
Renault Sa
Volvo Ab
Volkswagen AG
General Motors
Ford
Toyota
PSA Peugeot
Scania Ab
Fiat Spa
Daimler Ag
Man
Jaguar
3
B
Benchmark
h
k 2007
Mostly
Ports &
Ships
Terminals Multimodal
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
BB (stable) Ba1(stable)
BB (neg)
BBB (neg) Baa2 (stable)
BBB (neg)
A- (neg)
A3 (stable) BBB+ (stable)
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
B- (stable)
B3 (stable)
B- (pos)
AA (neg)
Aa1 (neg)
A+ (neg)
BB+ (neg)
Baa3 (neg)
BB+ (neg)
A- (neg)
A
NR
N.R.
NR
N.R.
BB+ (neg)
Ba1 (neg)
BB+ (neg)
BBB+ (neg)
A3 (neg)
BBB+ (neg)
A- (neg)
A3 (stable)
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
N.R.
Outbound
Logistics Automotive
European
Automotive
Logistics
business
models show
almost
consistently
stronger credit
metrics than
automotive
manufacturers
deserving a
credit rating at
least a notch
higher
Credit worthiness
Not publicly rated
Not publicly rated
Non investment grade - Speculative investment
Lower medium grade - Medium safe investment
Upper medium grade - Safe investment
Not publicly rated
Highly Speculative investment
Not publicly rated
Not publicly rated
Lower medium grade - Medium safe investment
Upper medium grade - Safe investment
Not publicly rated
89
• Appendix:
90
Austria: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
historical registrations (1999 – 2009)
350.000
314.182
300.000
12.414
21.385
309.427
-2%
7%
22.769
250.000
-2%
26.419
5%
22.534
200.000
New cars
registrations
-12%
28.819
31.035
150.000
30.117
100.000
35.249
5%
-11%
-11%
8%
13.281
21.040
23 907
23.907
23.217
23.630
25.701
27.726
32.672
32.666
37.410
-
-6%
293.528
-12%
11.655
-6%
-3%
19.813
23.129
35.192
300.121
-5%
15%
-2%
20.590
5%
-11%
20.816
4%
-12%
26.594
-10%
3%
27.038
-1%
-2%
30 468
30.468
-7%
-4%
-14%
31.904
-2%
-7%
50.000
-5%
-3%
34.067
279.493
13.418
19.338
24.388
21.402
18.813
26.260
25.904
26.295
7%
26%
9%
8%
14%
8%
7%
16.857
21.151
26.412
24.459
20.337
27.970
27.315
5%
8%
311.292
18.896
-1%
12%
23.775
-6%
12%
-7%
24.692
31.939
-6%
17.701
308.594
0%
22.240
0%
23.699
7%
25.375
5%
17.675
298.182
-3%
23.873
6%
25.001
-4%
24.274
0%
25.109
-4%
3%
20.636
1%
21.808
-4%
23.022
-9%
1%
28.271
6%
25.881
6%
25.403
-7%
-8%
32.849
-2%
29.833
-7%
1%
31.636
16%
28.503
307.915
4%
4%
4%
-9%
29.705
29.570
0%
33.091
3%
34.063
-5%
30.320
5%
-13%
29.666
1%
30.052
7%
32.200
1%
32.549
8%
4%
3%
30.659
-9%
18.768
-16%
22 870
22.870
-13%
2%
15.712
-100%
25.614
29%
26.694
3%
26.542
18%
22.423
23%
32.694
19 836
19.836
4%
22.509
2%
21.329
-14%
23.615
-4%
31.324
18.285
22.695
34.713
11%
5%
28.523
-1%
28.364
29.415
8%
31.813
13%
35.046
-8%
32.345
-8%
29.907
-11%
21.569
-5%
20.398
-1%
20.110
-3%
19.487
-4%
18.621
5%
19.505
5%
20.544
7%
21.987
-14%
27.257
-1%
26.975
-4%
25.885
-10%
23.291
7%
25.016
-4%
23.929
-2%
23.424
0%
23.448
-4%
22.430
-2%
21.884
-13%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
48.915
2008
42.025
6%
39%
3.988
-41%
7%
3.452
-23%
4%
3.646
-2%
3.263
2.969
3.986
3.929
4.352
10.000
4.475
2.589
-
39.891
2.908
3.457
20.000
4.053
3.723
3.321
30.000
45.556
44.411
3.053
1999
12%
15%
-4%
1%
7%
-19%
-2%
21%
9%
3.405
3.314
4.008
4.206
3.526
4.364
3.135
3.314
2000
-10%
-14%
-11%
9%
-9%
2.379
3.079
3.392
3.138
3.019
3.615
4%
3.096
3%
-2%
3.533
-19%
3.082
-19%
-10%
6%
3.802
-20%
-4%
6%
4.028
2.395
3.511
2001
71%
4%
-22%
22%
-24%
15%
2.527
1%
3.797
3.736
36.343
6%
-5%
5%
-8%
7.011
41.864
-13%
9%
-14%
2.439
2.930
2.972
3.027
3.591
3.519
2.617
3.010
2002
4.333
3.207
3.640
17%
62%
14%
19%
3.496
9%
25%
3 724
3.724
4%
3.749
-2%
2%
0%
2.669
3.017
7%
-6%
3.559
3%
12%
4.122
11%
-20%
13%
3.704
1%
3.446
3.798
3.028
2%
3.346
-56%
19%
9%
3.935
-7%
3.735
-27%
24%
5%
2.914
4.317
9%
2%
20%
2003
% changeYoY (by individual year)
3.445
3.819
3.877
3.679
4.019
4.026
2.729
3.618
2004
8%
4.104
3.549
3%
3.980
4%
4.486
16%
4%
14%
3.809
3%
0%
-12%
-23%
3.230
5%
38%
40%
8.003
29%
-48%
4.882
5%
0%
4.594
4.245
15%
6%
2.882
11%
2005
3.062
3.072
21%
45%
5%
4.007
3.120
4.130
-32%
32%
-15%
74%
11%
2.633
3.011
3.108
43%
3.362
24%
10%
4.577
50.518
49.439
46.124
-19%
3.196
3.229
21%
2006
% changeYoY (by individual month)
4.323
4.311
4.302
4.289
4.468
4 178
4.178
2%
-13%
4.428
JUL
36.090
JUN
29.732
MAY
35.898
MAR
26.477
FEB
18.827
JAN
18.992
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
Note: on the 25th of
January 2010
registrations for
December 2009
were not available
3.235
-12%
-11%
3.874
-25%
4.640
2%
-10%
4%
5.058
4.191
-4%
4.948
3.185
29%
4.120
10%
4.301
2008
NOV
SEP
33.037
AUG
-38%
2.982
JUL
-24%
2.756
JUN
-20%
2.913
-25%
-33%
33%
5.145
-2,4%
-35%
-100%
-18%
DEC
OCT
3.858
6.052
2007
SEP
3.371
21%
44%
3.906
OCT
APR
-5%
-8%
50.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
5%
23.420
2001
NOV
44%
25%
2000
DEC
AUG
18.774
1999
-0,5%
4%
60.000
40.000
299.983
293.697
25.992
25.003
22.016
-7%
30.855
-2%
-38%
-41%
-27%
-39%
-31%
2.573
MAY
2.893
APR
3.113
3.158
MAR
3.566
FEB
3.591
2.528
JAN
2.964
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
91
Belgium: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
600.000
515.204
489.621
500.000
22.732
32 490
32.490
37.765
400.000
34.638
31.062
New cars
registrations
37.871
300.000
48.116
39.790
200 000
200.000
47.331
5%
20.196
32.501
-11%
0%
39.632
31.519
5%
-9%
0%
28%
10%
58.757
-
21.205
33 312
33.312
2%
6%
42.206
30.593
36.027
6%
33.024
43.113
11%
40.098
44.156
51.029
2%
52 294
52.294
-10%
10%
45.980
45.105
-14%
57.736
29%
57.730
-2%
1999
-4%
-14%
-18%
49.944
-21%
45.711
-1%
57.349
2000
467.569
18.151
18
151
27.307
-11%
26.257
26.145
8%
34.234
-2%
34.850
10%
28.817
3%
37.632
40.912
51.858
52.851
6%
35.115
1%
39.839
6%
37 112
37.112
-9%
-16%
52.611
55.872
-3%
2001
43.326
48.077
-9%
15%
11%
42.291
4%
-15%
-5%
12%
37.702
-13%
458.796
45%
30.059
31.678
-21%
-2%
484.757
6%
10%
-11%
15%
-20%
15%
44.727
5%
-3%
62.252
54.342
100.000
488.683
31.175
-5%
-10%
526.141
-5%
24.849
-17%
33.441
6%
38.868
-8%
33.594
29.651
31.083
-11%
9%
5%
-1%
43.378
-6%
480.088
1%
20.734
35.399
-2%
36.720
13%
35.382
5%
33.109
12%
4%
32.347
49.041
38.955
13%
53.261
6%
60.965
27%
-1%
0%
41.322
23%
48.036
-15%
51.869
6%
43.513
14%
49.700
-9%
45.171
21%
-10%
50.156
-6%
47.012
8%
50.958
14%
2003
2004
34.686
41 492
41.492
34.989
33.018
2005
-7%
5%
36.611
3%
32.954
-3%
39.242
50.701
8%
51 147
51.147
7%
-7%
79.716
80.000
3.883
5.298
70.000
6.192
5.670
60.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
4.941
50.000
40.000
3.473
5.257
0%
6.191
-14%
7.935
-12%
10.000
-
4.901
5.086
5.291
6.368
-20%
7.608
15%
-25%
8.757
20.000
-6%
9%
-10%
-1%
1%
3%
8.603
75.413
-11%
5.995
6.600
30.000
-5%
6.463
8.225
-8%
3%
13%
3%
21%
18%
11%
3.142
4.861
6 401
6.401
5.561
-10%
6.419
7.512
8.470
8 383
8.383
9.103
7.799
3%
8.047
8.801
-1%
8.751
6%
9.245
2001
12%
68.003
3%
0%
-9%
11%
2000
11%
-12%
7.041
1999
-17%
5.240
30%
11%
8%
82.384
3.486
4.366
3%
5.663
2%
5.084
1%
-24%
3.992
-18%
5.288
-22%
5.830
-30%
5 951
5.951
7%
-3%
1%
5%
70.197
3.490
4.503
5.780
5.148
34%
18%
13%
16%
4.256
25%
5.154
5%
5.905
24%
6.242
78.524
4.678
5 304
5.304
6.527
5.957
7%
5.022
-18%
9%
5.807
8%
-15%
-12%
5.339
7%
5.417
24%
7.321
10%
6.672
15%
5 569
5.569
5.220
18%
-9%
7.795
18%
2%
2007
19%
6.567
7.825
6.723
6%
6.567
8.076
-13%
7.039
28%
-4%
7.319
23%
-24%
6.964
17%
9.011
-4%
8.624
7%
9.206
0%
15%
7.639
11%
12%
9.794
1%
7.659
7.852
-1%
7.574
15%
8.745
3%
-24%
6.146
6%
6.486
4%
6.728
13%
7.572
-13%
6.624
-10%
8.288
-6%
7.807
3%
8.041
14%
9.176
-5%
8.759
2005
2006
14%
-8%
7.061
-11%
-4%
8.996
-4%
9.006
8 131
8.131
OCT
SEP
39.726
AUG
35.687
-9%
JUL
35.906
JUN
-14%
-22%
-23%
43.736
MAY
37 976
37.976
APR
47.641
MAR
-12%
50.258
-18%
45.904
-16%
47.690
FEB
JAN
1-11/2009
4.213
-27%
-100%
7.813
-21%
7.137
-26%
5.864
-31%
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-1,7%
-22%
8.648
-25%
8.104
-24%
66.934
4.499
5.781
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
4.904
JUL
4.546
JUN
5.108
6.531
MAY
5.990
APR
-28%
7.053
MAR
-18%
7.538
8.497
FEB
-21%
6.713
JAN
9.878
-16%
-10%
9.833
21%
2007
34.755
NOV
30.085
5.672
6.811
449.364 -0,9%
-6%
91.672
0%
5.539
28%
56.846
-14%
5.530
6%
4.301
6.570
0%
-18%
19%
55.941
-2%
6.714
7.139
2004
91.819
-3%
7.130
-100%
2008
5.725
6.770
2003
-6%
61 703
61.703
-4%
55.832
6.274
48.441
57.077
59.170
-4%
5%
50.689
29%
15%
4.109
-22%
2002
3%
48.856
5%
-19%
16%
1%
-10%
80.478
37.838
DEC
-16%
-9%
37%
9.203
7%
-1%
49.977
47.713
2006
-5%
33.882
39.597
-7%
14%
84.754
42.998
46.961
100.000
90.000
21.837
30.381
46.150
12%
58.128
23.695
535.947
11%
46.118
54.554
2%
-8%
-16%
3%
64.963
524.795
36.351
5%
35.359
25%
-17%
2002
20.986
0%
13%
9%
-6%
-10%
23%
10%
9.202
2008
-26%
8.271
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
92
Bulgaria: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
50.000
7%
45.000
41.042
-22%
3.477
26%
40.000
11%
32.481
35.000
4.012
30.000
New cars
registrations
43.758
3.233
25.000
2.985
2.161
20.000
2 618
2.618
2.759
15.000
23%
3.963
26%
3.766
34%
29%
28%
22%
16%
2.961
2.819
10.000
5.000
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
27%
2.393
39%
2.639
51%
1.958
1.943
2006
4.442
30%
-19%
3.228
3.723
-1%
3.313
14%
2.898
5%
3.381
12%
3.546
-48%
DEC
-100%
NOV
-59%
OCT
-46%
SEP
-41%
-
3.950
-36%
3.541
3%
3.702
3.611
15%
3.745
3.260
20%
3.645
22%
4.466
-53%
3.796
-47%
3.167
-41%
3.034
3.664
29%
2.948
25%
2.534
2007
-40%
-41%
-31%
2008
9.959
10 000
10.000
1.033
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
8.000
6.000
4.000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
883
-65%
21%
991
9%
1.097
-100%
732
9%
779
-12%
778
888
23%
1.026
833
16%
679
576
-11%
-4%
648
-35%
889
15%
1.033
11.478
-14%
873
829
-
10.697
821
811
2.000
7%
7%
7%
-8%
50%
3%
2006
1.016
1.007
44%
706
-3%
819
848
34%
938
889
955
969
701
2007
1.214
876
-64%
-53%
-54%
1.135
-57%
888
-66%
952
-60%
2008
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
311
342
308
287
290
432
412
445
491
304
384
1-11/2009
-7%
36%
2.085
2.020
1.866
1-11/2009
4.006
-72%
-8%
2.202
2.521
-70%
-65%
977
2.237
-69%
1.045
19%
2.517
-65%
18%
10%
1.325
2007
1 956
1.956
1.946
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
14.000
12.000
22.682 -11,3%
-45%
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
93
Czech Republic: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
200.000
5%
174.456
180.000
152.981
160.000
140.000
120.000
New cars
registrations
100.000
80.000
12.599
12.192
4%
12.628
13.425
-9%
12.629
13.134
-9%
12.198
10.970
-5%
13.101
-12%
14.501
13.640
40.000
-7%
-10%
-5%
-13%
14.437
20.000
10.776
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
143 622
143.622
0%
15.112
60.000
-6%
9.094
4%
-8%
2003
6%
7%
11.975
10.391
11 477
11.477
14.063
13.032
13.026
12.599
11.248
8.356
2004
2%
151.699
13.466
12.929
4%
12.712
-12%
10.556
21%
12.537
4%
11.887
10%
15.489
22%
15.923
-21%
19%
14.624
12.723
8.909
9.944
156.686
13.173
9%
14.052
12%
14.212
6%
11.181
1%
4%
-6%
1%
2%
2005
-1%
16.167
14%
16.259
26%
8%
12.076
-3%
5%
13.333
19%
14.736
12.357
12%
16 247
16.247
14.520
16.114
8%
13.891
8%
13.892
12%
10.519
18%
10.098
15.061
14.944
11.921
102%
87%
3.121
129%
3.133
128%
163%
20.000
14.566
15.000
10.000
5.000
1999
2000
2001
2002
1.671
1.366
1 226
1.226
1.017
1.157
1.169
1.357
1.274
1.047
1.312
1.008
962
2003
29.465
84%
120%
106%
105%
145%
76%
54%
24%
1%
29 770
29.770
1%
-2%
3.157
2%
3.057
2.800
-18%
2.845
2.677
11%
2.194
2.124
-24%
2.575
-4%
2.802
1%
2.613
1%
2.562
2%
2.310
1.557
1.191
2004
18%
74%
2.359
34.155
0%
3 171
3.171
10%
3.375
5%
2.996
58%
8%
17%
3.476
2.266
-7%
2.702
-26%
1.966
2.642
83%
4.742
2.595
21%
2.354
7%
1.844
2.076
2005
10%
2.508
2.852
3.769
39%
4.175
4%
30%
39%
41%
87%
3.612
3.307
3.142
3.546
3 676
3.676
12%
16%
20%
2006
3.597
3.181
16%
2007
15.260
-20%
14.061
12.955
-6%
13.600
18%
14.016
-14%
0%
41.300
-28%
3.054
SEP
AUG
12.142
12.159
JUL
14.105
JUN
16 157
16.157
MAY
14.240
APR
17.963
MAR
-7%
-6%
-4%
-10%
-12%
FEB
13.921
JAN
11.928
-19%
2008
-49%
-100%
3.120
11.309
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
3.808
5%
-11%
2.932
14%
3.592
OCT
SEP
-51%
-45%
-52%
3.888
-3%
3.549
-53%
9%
3.919
-46%
3.383
-32%
32%
3.009
-53%
25%
3.432
-40%
2008
NOV
-46%
10%
6%
DEC
-17%
3.614
2.278
2.739
OCT
15.518
-13%
-24%
1.966
2.292
4%
-17%
12%
2.545
1.945
4.246
-13%
18.716
2007
34%
NOV
15.142
24%
DEC
15.121
17.466
11.768
21%
25.000
-
16.397
41.268
30.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
8%
0,0%
153.106
16.385
11%
-8%
2%
2006
15%
8%
15.750
45.000
35.000
14.025
-11%
12.677
40.000
-100%
15.964
12%
9%
18%
-16%
13.304
11%
21%
-2%
-5%
12%
1%
3%
182.554
-17%
-50%
6,5%
21.226
2.581
1.935
1.863
1.600
1.731
1.958
1.667
2.124
2.292
1.427
2.048
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
94
Denmark: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
180.000
160.000
140 000
140.000
12 068
12.068
10.197
120.000
New cars
registrations
100.000
80.000
60.000
5%
-22%
-22%
9.994
-28%
9.956
-23%
9.894
-22%
11.385
14.375
13.191
21%
112.690
40.000
20.000
-
-15%
9.380
-16%
1%
-17%
7.367
7.680
7.787
-24%
8.166
8 678
8.678
-28%
10.327
-10%
13.214
26%
11.906
-21%
17.021
-26%
12.068
-18%
10.364
-18%
10.417
12.541
9.906
8.535
1999
96.173
7.880
7.464
7.207
6.696
7.733
7.292
-6%
-14%
-5%
-16%
-2%
10.081
-15%
-13%
10.089
-26%
9.066
-28%
9.310
7.129
6.226
2001
-27%
2000
111.585
16%
9.004
14%
-14%
9.044
25%
8.755
31%
8.859
15%
9.190
26%
11.206
11%
96.078
5%
8.159
9%
12.395
37%
11.345
30%
9.425
-11%
8.258
32%
-10%
8.030
27%
7.922
7.160
8.083
14%
-12%
-20%
11.890
-25%
8.992
-23%
8.940
37%
10.030
-22%
7.754
31%
7.951
6.870
6.693
2003
9%
10.241
8.132
7.075
2002
14%
-16%
-5%
9.089
9.235
12.410
11%
11%
14%
10.422
38%
18%
10%
10.477
14%
13 209
13.209
-3%
3%
12.437
0%
7%
10%
32%
1%
-19%
19%
121.490
10%
19%
30%
27%
21%
30%
9.954
31%
10.619
19%
10.420
28%
7.479
7.645
30%
2004
11.479
7%
12.434
-3%
11.828
11.729
14.976
12.924
13.917
1%
9.581
9.950
3%
12.752
7%
12.403
12.268
12.076
11.949
12%
21%
-5%
10%
12%
2005
16.812
16%
10%
10%
-21%
13.243
13.191
150.143
8.604
8 327
8.327
11.326
11.336
-19%
-14%
12.974
-30%
-12%
14 766
14.766
4%
14.033
4%
11.943
35%
15.345
-30%
13.222
-1%
0%
14.083
10.596
3%
11.481
2006
11%
80.000
69.723
70.000
26%
55.528
60.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
-
43.609
4.802
3.227
3.217
4.005
3 353
3.353
2.777
4.285
3.733
3.434
4.365
3.152
3.259
1999
-3%
-15%
5%
-1%
-15%
7%
-9%
-11%
13%
-7%
2%
1%
4%
42.408
4.069
3.394
3.190
3.393
3 577
3.577
2.518
3.808
4.215
3.203
4.454
3.196
3.391
2000
-5%
-5%
4%
-1%
13%
-5%
2%
-5%
-19%
0%
-16%
-9%
-5%
40.459
3.857
3.534
3.163
3.826
3.408
2.560
3.612
3.399
3.219
3.756
2.912
3.213
2001
1%
-6%
-4%
17%
-9%
-3%
3%
19%
10%
8%
-13%
-4%
-6%
40.742
3.638
3.379
3.695
3.491
3.322
2.638
4.291
3.722
3.490
3.272
2.792
3.012
2002
2%
27%
41.364
6%
4.610
0%
3.572
3.711
3.572
3.233
2.632
3.355
3.646
3.194
3.573
3.111
3.155
2%
-3%
0%
-22%
-2%
-8%
9%
11%
5%
31%
6.053
45%
5.174
27%
38%
42%
52%
54%
17%
40%
32%
20%
18%
2003
4.708
7%
7.760
28%
27%
34%
-6%
6.553
15%
5.429
26%
6.179
10%
11%
5.646
7%
26%
6.505
7%
5.158
40%
5.976
5%
4.275
39%
6.189
4.468
38%
15%
4.724
26%
3.738
3.722
2004
32%
5.428
10%
4.705
4.926
2005
-11%
5.991
-31%
7.963
4.427
3 997
3.997
7.020
11%
11%
4.597
-27%
29%
23%
4.914
7.263
22%
12.953
-43%
25%
14.391
-46%
13%
-45%
5.360
-27%
5.465
-19%
5.095
-9%
4.473
6.261
4.917
6.982
6 401
6.401
6.525
7.499
5.187
5.548
2006
-9%
-2%
6.355
6.251
-28%
FEB
9.819
JAN
7.411
7.784
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
47.410
-24%
-21%
-29%
-31%
31%
2.873
-100%
-25%
2.823
3.923
3.918
3.897
3.532
4.532
-54%
-61%
-51%
-58%
-56%
8.915
-44%
4.294
-56%
7%
8.006
-48%
4.970
-61%
16%
6.042
-32%
4.168
-44%
4.099
-53%
6.600
-34%
4.381
-45%
2007
2008
AUG
-55%
37%
19%
MAR
9.025
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-35%
5 146
5.146
11.269
9.309
-20%
-48%
JUN
9.764
APR
-44%
12.245
5.495
JUL
9.882
MAY
2008
73.203
AUG
9.058
9.074
-6%
-24%
SEP
7 900
7.900
90.000
77.557
100.295
-36%
-13%
2007
-3,5%
-27%
14.575
16.074
OCT
9%
-9%
-1%
NOV
-100%
-13%
13.082
DEC
-33%
11.993
15%
-10%
11.187
-44%
14.256
-10%
10.549
-37%
21%
15.617
14.176
-6%
13.674
14 999
14.999
11.374
-3%
14%
12.421
159.347
154.385
146.885
143.727
JUL
-6,9%
21.300
2.110
1.524
1.916
1.644
1.566
2.091
1.881
1.922
2.322
1.926
2.398
1-11/2009
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
95
Estonia: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
35.000
30.912
30.000
22%
25.363
25.000
19.640
19%
20.000
New cars
registrations
15.602
15.000
10.000
5.000
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
1.122
1.248
1.486
1.357
1.177
1.444
1.329
1.493
1.493
1.240
984
1.229
5%
16.436
-2%
1.101
1.322
1.362
1.268
1.135
1.272
1.278
6%
-8%
-7%
-4%
-12%
-4%
16%
1.730
37%
2.050
17%
1.445
1.095
1.378
11%
12%
2003
29%
1.749
23%
2.251
32%
29%
1.420
29%
1.708
52%
28%
9%
1.481
27%
1.605
52%
37%
1.551
25%
31%
1.670
29%
49%
1.900
46%
12%
1.933
5%
-2%
2.009
17%
1.697
1.199
1.467
9%
6%
2004
6%
2.253
2.062
2.355
2.095
2.448
9%
2.570
14%
2.211
7%
2.566
9%
2.649
26%
24%
-33%
-24%
1.679
-62%
1.596
-100%
2.337
-40%
-38%
3.029
2.267
-25%
2.697
-17%
2.882
56%
2.812
-10%
2.531
39%
2.134
3%
2.198
43%
2.704
0%
2.706
1.537
29%
1.886
-52%
-62%
-69%
2.797
2.105
1.807
SEP
-57%
-12%
3.230
OCT
941
1.120
1.710
-54%
37%
-3%
-57%
-68%
-58%
-65%
-64%
2006
2007
-62%
2008
21%
6.815
7.000
46%
-6%
6.000
13%
5.000
4%
3.472
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
1999
2000
2001
2002
221
236
519
326
260
256
299
256
340
258
207
294
2003
12%
68%
-40%
-15%
-1%
24%
13%
-2%
-4%
38%
27%
-6%
3.610
248
396
310
276
257
317
338
250
325
355
263
275
2004
4.683
60%
59%
394
151%
28%
505
28%
399
57%
30%
29%
57%
74%
3%
26%
53%
2%
-3%
14%
43%
433
446
327
425
383
332
346
300
393
2005
14%
41%
94%
49%
24%
29%
370
570
638
1.085
-7%
35%
48%
-40%
7%
17%
573
515
344
771
945
652
612
868
0%
643
644
33%
687
2006
42%
-51%
207
-31%
-16%
539
507
169
765
58%
76%
-73%
-43%
61%
373
5.635
602
485
516
-32%
-51%
655
722
452
347
505
543
-46%
46%
465
-4%
617
-17%
570
-15%
554
2007
-8,3%
9.249
671
728
812
599
714
982
875
1.164
895
792
1.017
1-11/2009
743
2008
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
463
-29%
3%
AUG
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
8.266
8.000
-
NOV
24 579
24.579
-43%
15%
9.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
-20%
2.461
2.815
28%
2005
-5%
DEC
1.664
JUL
-70%
-100%
-53%
-70%
-63%
-70%
-77%
-80%
-69%
-76%
-70%
-64%
-64%
-11,5%
1.673
97
141
167
105
114
111
145
148
173
202
270
1-11/2009
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
96
Finland: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
160.000
147.222
136.324
140.000
5.930
120 000
120.000
10.639
10.672
New cars
registrations
12.808
60.000
9.800
14.036
-11%
-4%
9.846
-15%
-12%
12.056
-6%
15.008
14.970
-13%
7%
4.893
8.041
-4%
5.104
7.293
10%
8.694
12%
8.211
9%
8.964
14%
10 366
10.366
9.712
8.985
10.221
14%
11.371
12.663
27%
24%
31%
10 866
10.866
35%
12.709
12.516
9.372
18%
11.066
-20%
10.039
-5%
9.519
-29%
8.370
1%
8.446
31%
-27%
12.625
-4%
12.132
16%
19%
17.330
2000
11%
2001
13.509
-3%
-8%
-7%
14 785
14.785
17%
25%
2002
12.970
11.908
11.048
14.036
6.313
9.684
11 130
11.130
4%
-9%
-20%
-10%
-10%
10.125
10.647
13.150
13.319
9.992
9.032
-10%
8%
11.521
-1%
14%
11.432
-4%
7%
8%
14.249
14.762
-7%
6%
-1%
-3%
-1%
2004
12.896
18.168
-63%
110%
DEC
4.464
6.445
NOV
11.716
11.075
-16%
9.826
-8%
11.023
0%
11.177
-30%
10.446
-14%
12.142
-27%
11.794
7%
11.068
10.661
15.098
15.159
0%
-2%
-22%
-13%
0%
13.747
7%
-7%
11.606
4%
2005
125.285
0%
12.247
2%
139.611
11%
11.121
-18%
11.174
-14%
-63%
3%
14.938
11.560
18.358
5.791
-1%
6%
5%
145.689
1%
11.869
11%
10%
-2%
1%
13.072
2003
5.714
11.234
14.059
8%
31%
147.949
3%
11.022
-3%
-21%
14.691
142.439
-14%
16%
-19%
11.438
13.004
34%
10.287
5%
10.380
29%
-24%
11.783
1999
-14%
40%
11.629
-1%
16%
109.487
9.011
-8%
-17%
9.918
-
-9%
10.256
12.617
20.000
-24%
-17%
17%
116.877
-19%
9.663
12 814
12.814
40.000
26%
-8%
11.155
80.000
8.019
-12%
11.629
100.000
6.740
14%
9.136
6.857
134.646
-1%
-9%
18.443
-8%
2006
2.122
3 377
3.377
10.153
-39%
9.842
-100%
9.446
-11%
91%
14.218
-40%
3%
13 137
13.137
8%
12.297
15.494
26%
12.625
-1%
12.056
12.734
10.570
14%
16.884
28%
2007
-37%
21.549
-35%
-49%
25.000
22.857
1.686
20.000
1.744
1.760
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
1.843
15.000
1.592
1.407
2.480
10.000
2.232
2.079
5.000
2.072
1.613
2.349
-
1999
17%
-10%
0%
3%
20.575
1.688
-1%
1.804
-22%
1.742
-11%
1.438
-11%
1.409
1.254
-32%
1.689
-18%
1 834
1.834
-11%
1.845
-14%
1.791
5%
1%
0%
-10%
1.698
2.383
2000
-3%
1%
34%
2%
20.633
1.525
1.755
1.758
1.930
0%
12%
2%
1%
-15%
9%
20.718
1.702
1.791
1.783
1.645
1.554
4%
2%
18%
-8%
1.639
2%
19%
2.124
10%
1.848
22%
12%
7%
1.670
1.431
1.953
1.431
1.254
21%
1.517
-6%
-1%
1.666
-2%
1.632
20%
1.937
-12%
1.622
10%
1.973
-14%
-3%
1.460
2.322
2001
9%
1.740
0%
6%
21.647
1.930
22%
20%
11%
1.891
2%
16%
1.883
-8%
1.731
30%
-14%
1.691
3%
1.738
33%
4%
1.521
11%
1.694
7%
-9%
2.108
2%
2.149
18%
-2%
2002
2003
1.896
1.938
2.172
2.032
2.040
1.745
2.346
2.148
-9%
-6%
-1%
23.067
1.789
4%
-15%
-22%
1.914
-2%
-18%
1.704
12%
1.671
34%
1.904
-2%
-7%
-11%
1.549
-1%
2.311
-2%
2.104
-7%
-13%
-13%
13%
2.258
-10%
2.035
27%
2.311
-17%
1.920
12%
1.820
-1%
1.806
2.535
-7%
2.360
2004
2005
2%
11%
23.889
1.518
6%
-5%
1 872
1.872
-16%
1.915
20%
2.245
0%
1.858
1.440
2.014
1.834
2.586
2.154
1.834
2.619
13%
25%
1.442
6%
2006
JUN
7.177
5.916
6.736
MAY
APR
7.876
7.222
7.433
MAR
10.716
FEB
-41%
7.165
-46%
11.530
JAN
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
25.387
1.599
DEC
NOV
OCT
1.690
2.306
-11%
2.058
2.250
-13%
1.950
-45%
13.888
AUG
2.100
-8%
1.942
-47%
JUL
1.798
1.725
-37%
-4%
2.169
-49%
2.354
-55%
FEB
2.198
2.518
1%
JUL
8%
9%
8%
AUG
1.564
37%
-20%
1%
11%
5.706
7.080
-15%
2008
25.203
SEP
-4,7%
84.557
-52%
30.000
25.241
OCT
-1%
2.334
-6%
1.857
2.768
2007
2.184
-59%
2.183
0%
2.193
-38%
1.350
-28%
2.223
-53%
2 435
2.435
18%
18%
3.098
12%
-4,9%
933
1.092
1.230
998
781
1 026
1.026
1.063
999
-7%
2.068
-45%
-100%
2008
-55%
SEP
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
JAN
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
97
France: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
2.500.000
2.148.423
186.476
2.000.000
183.590
188.835
157.440
1.500.000
179.072
New cars
registrations
-1%
-19%
-4%
-2%
-5%
-13%
-36%
292.625
75%
1.000.000
104.737
148.480
186.656
500.000
206.190
157.739
-
156.583
2.133.884
6%
6%
151.492
176 351
176.351
184.721
150.191
156.576
186.842
183.697
3%
7%
2%
2.254.732
-5%
160.247
0%
182.000
198.527
153.044
-18%
-4%
12%
20%
220.321
203.831
4%
-1%
185.264
9%
201.359
2%
211.015
0%
15%
181.552
8%
169.634
1999
0%
208.338
196.549
32%
-5%
148.165
-5%
-6%
159.456
-9%
-9%
-9%
-0,5%
2.145.071
164 789
164.789
188.209
153.069
121.781
199.321
2.009.246
1%
160.455
-9%
-2%
2%
7%
149.236
18%
184.643
-8%
2.013.709
171.820
175.966
169.585
3%
2.067.789
-3%
-1%
169.369
-11%
-2%
172003
-8%
159.668
8%
165.698
-13%
0%
-6%
155.410
-1%
154.328
7%
-15%
103.055
3%
105.795
8%
-6%
187.287
-10%
168.408
2%
204.946
6%
217.766
3%
-13%
161.779
5%
169.545
8%
-13%
180.784
-4%
200.835
186.265
0%
113.843
159.465
-5%
-5%
223.397
0%
2.000.549
3%
2.064.543
-1%
2.050.282
0%
21%
182.548
-16%
153.686
-100%
158.296
7%
169.757
-14%
145.893
48%
173.137
9%
188.877
-7%
174.939
20%
143.634
3%
148.164
8%
113.955
-2%
111.249
-7%
150.749
151.549
223.737
21%
183.340
160.565
103.350
182.954
216.476
2%
183.462
-3%
177.343
-3%
172.320
7%
194.651
-7%
181.647
-5%
172.621
15%
14%
219.753
184.463
7%
MAR
FEB
152.066
JAN
6%
197.691
2%
202.475
-3%
197.376
-4%
189.869
-1%
188.879
8%
-2%
177.412
-2%
173.064
-8%
159.385
-3%
155.000
3%
159.642
1%
160.537
-2%
157.671
11%
175.126
-13%
13%
191.203
0%
192.089
-9%
175.107
-12%
154.193
6%
164.116
3%
168.589
2%
171.651
-6%
162.116
-8%
2007
2008
500.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
400.000
480.554
-1%
39.954
11%
41.388
12%
41.198
35.413
300.000
200.000
100.000
-
10%
32.954
5%
13%
35.469
12%
42 064
42.064
6%
527.487
39 545
39.545
45.876
45.952
3%
2%
2%
9%
40.449
46.862
50.115
-8%
-6%
-13%
38.221
2%
-14%
45.287
-6%
37.065
1%
27.958
-9%
39.387
-5%
35.463
-21%
39.902
11%
44.149
0%
44.536
16%
51.795
-15%
37.264
44.243
44.065
48.368
-9%
44.086
-4%
42.455
44.113
9%
47.907
-1%
47.647
39.285
44.902
-2%
45.266
15%
51.848
0%
36.642
20%
44.127
1%
46.019
6%
48.807
1%
2000
-7%
40.994
-6%
37.149
504.694
-10%
6%
23%
1999
545.810
-5%
-2%
471 159
471.159
7%
15%
38.951
35.451
42.507
37.377
25.413
501.961
44.808
18%
41.820
-3%
41.332
2%
37.982
15%
29.241
529.887
6%
11%
49 530
49.530
6%
44.240
0%
41.536
9%
41.316
7%
41.922
-5%
39.884
-2%
43 377
43.377
17%
50.588
1%
12%
3%
-12%
8%
22%
546.560
43.642
47.744
50.522
3%
42.571
32.086
31.190
3%
39.259
7%
51.207
6%
3%
2%
13%
36.323
6%
46.944
1%
48.946
-6%
46.031
45.120
8%
48.571
46.850
-4%
45.174
7%
48.356
5%
50.835
2%
51.856
-5%
-10%
44.414
-6%
41.680
-6%
38.971
3%
40.037
6%
42.551
2%
43.462
49.398
-2%
48.229
-9%
43.656
-2%
42.894
4%
44.794
1%
45.166
2005
39.238
-29%
-16%
6
42 228
42.228
-100%
0%
51.864
-7%
6%
46.308
-8%
33.347
4%
44.186
8%
-13%
54.543
-1%
9%
576.520
-3%
44.858
36.737
1%
50.436
0%
41.623
43.574
54.437
-13%
2004
51.837
6%
-13%
2003
50.488
20%
39.899
2002
45.076
41.942
51.785
2001
3%
568.694
-29%
-1,6%
408.879
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
49.168
-26%
36.972
JUN
56.566
-25%
35.566
24.512
MAY
-22%
36.872
APR
-25%
44.271
11%
16%
53.196
52.981
-35%
8%
5%
45.670
9%
49.588
-22%
8%
48.656
3%
50.146
-25%
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-23%
51 890
51.890
2007
149.372
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
39.133
49.116
2006
MAY
204.018
173.612
187.159
4%
JUN
APR
700.000
600.000
JUL
184.475
-6%
2006
235.137
AUG
-7%
198.302
2005
188.534
SEP
198.558
-6%
2004
183.110
206.247
210.285
2003
NOV
12%
12%
2002
DEC
OCT
110.542
7%
207.891
2001
216.354
210.424
3%
2000
-
3%
0%
3%
-3%
2.040.279
2008
-21%
38.901
MAR
34.403
FEB
42.068
JAN
38.579
37.602
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
98
Germany: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
4.000.000
3.802.176
284.497
3.500.000
3.000.000
274.378
292 985
292.985
308.979
2.500.000
New cars
registrations
-6%
240.861
3%
-3%
-11%
259.474
4%
10%
226.174
277.242
284.317
7%
-7%
-1%
251.320
2%
256.418
-5%
-19%
276.542
0%
277.252
2%
-19%
292.878
3%
302.643
2%
5%
351.647
-6%
330.325
-14%
-25%
275.491
7%
295.013
3%
429.896
-10%
386.127
-8%
269.260
1%
273.186
-14%
273.341
-14%
234.310
3%
333 676
333.676
368.130
1.000.000
-12%
266.114
1%
-4%
363.223
-
-15%
-5%
2.000.000
500.000
3.378.343 -1% 3.341.718 -3%
270.393
262.766
341.045
1 500 000
1.500.000
-11%
1999
2000
257.918
356.024
236.150
242.242
3%
0%
3.252.898
228.496
256.564
281.057
2%
0%
-4%
7%
266.005
-10%
-1%
0%
2001
244.287
282.560
308 450
308.450
282.632
304.326
321.840
233.281
243.400
-7%
2%
-3%
8%
-6%
-1%
-1%
-2%
2002
1%
3.236.938
231.985
256.205
269.124
285.208
228.001
288.084
299 174
299.174
304.953
287.350
318.659
230.417
237.778
21%
11%
4%
-4%
-3%
-7%
4%
-7%
3%
4%
-3%
-12%
2003
2%
3.266.825 -9%
281.748
284.761
281.180
274.538
220.862
267.620
311 162
311.162
282.562
297.126
332.962
224.092
208.212
3%
-3%
3%
4%
4%
3.319.259
256.873
275.217
288.598
18%
18%
2%
5%
284.172
12%
1%
8%
6%
4%
246.666
270.936
336 629
336.629
299.992
309.378
0%
-1%
-4%
2004
218.841
326.038
-20%
13%
-13%
298.179
11%
2005
34.823
350.000
35.262
300.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
31.583
31.649
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
25.659
29.984
-
376.884
-9%
31.516
-8%
32 451
32.451
-4%
30.222
-5%
7%
-1%
29.990
27.579
29.687
-20%
-10%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-7%
36.315
-9%
33.077
-8%
18%
37 582
37.582
10%
-10%
35.730
25.201
27.402
1999
-6%
-8%
10%
-5%
33.500
37.484
27.751
26.045
2000
-3%
-6%
-11%
6%
352.165
25.251
29.311
8%
-9%
2%
-10%
318.711
25.655
29.737
-4%
26.443
-7%
28.413
26.699
-12%
27.342
27.499
-2%
30.475
-5%
-21%
32.356
-4%
35.307
-18%
24.784
-18%
27.512
-10%
2001
315.449
2%
29.298
33.936
-1%
23.606
26.883
28 867
28.867
26.745
31.060
28.783
20.243
24.671
2002
-3%
0%
3%
-5%
5%
-6%
4%
-8%
-5%
6%
-4%
26.187
25.618
13%
7%
28.291
28.198
8%
22.409
1%
28.311
15%
27.873
28.706
27.430
21.470
23.750
9%
6%
1%
27 206
27.206
341.451
7%
12%
21%
2%
4%
2003
4%
-10%
261.384
28%
339.976
239.381
2%
-11%
-7%
-7%
-15%
-10%
27 670
27.670
9%
29.046
0%
30.403
28.344
24.176
28.633
31.356
29.748
32.291
5%
4%
2004
31.718
30.282
29.861
25.023
28.014
5%
32.791
8%
7%
33.141
21.953
30.159
-2%
2%
24.690
355.502
3%
0%
32.106
34.541
33.672
-10%
14%
-5%
-10%
2005
32.862
14%
34.889
33%
27.370
8%
33.909
38%
23.649
28%
25.292
34%
25.500
-27%
23.447
51%
56.574
-41%
7%
9%
22.621
24.714
-9%
-22%
64%
13%
11%
36.012
2%
24.657
27.818
301.108
293.484
264.871
334.592
183.258
199.686
214.386
12%
2006
407.074
30.063
39.657
36.283
36.736
32.634
32.397
34.240
35 400
35.400
33.203
40.132
25.172
31.157
29%
262.534
1%
304.036
-6%
275.259
20%
317.960
-14%
286.549
25%
228.623
11%
220.742
2007
9%
10%
258.639
233.772
19%
40%
21%
-14%
2008
0%
407.427
-9%
27.373
-35%
-24%
29.990
5%
-5%
34 453
34.453
13%
41.675
-29%
-2%
31.859
8%
34.968
6%
36.462
-1%
34.986
17%
384.578
NOV
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
379.626
400.965
277.740
MAR
FEB
JAN
189.385
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-100%
-3,7%
-20%
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
264.722
AUG
-38%
23.954
JUL
-36%
24.364
JUN
-29%
25.937
-35%
38.694
427.111
40%
40%
DEC
OCT
265.473
284.873
371.979
316.166
-2%
2006
5%
-7%
31 897
31.897
40.882
50.000
-2%
24%
275.219
9%
386.387
321.120
21%
450.000
400.000
20%
258.814
358.072
223.108
225.981
279.725
-2%
-7%
215.963
18%
-18%
-100%
281.845
323.776
-1%
3.090.040
-11%
-4%
-8%
241.905
-7%
3.591.611 -0,6%
-8%
244.757
330.102
3.148.163
16%
283.921
-3%
10%
-2%
-4%
293.832
265.845
8%
200.419
303.416
-2%
331.538
-2%
3.467.961 -9%
20.272
MAY
24.845
APR
-33%
23.544
-32%
23.577
MAR
33.255
-15%
26.226
FEB
22%
30.762
-34%
6%
32.950
-29%
-17%
2007
2008
28.124
20.426
JAN
23.453
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
99
Greece: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
350.000
11%
300.000
261.711
250.000
200.000
16.827
-16%
23.886
-2%
20.493
41%
14.094
New cars
registrations
16.832
150.000
100.000
50.000
-
-15%
290.222
14.231
20.006
-3%
-12%
29%
24.916
10%
24 017
24.017
14%
18.851
2%
20.453
23.176
21%
21.732
-8%
27.398
1%
27.369
27.989
27.763
12 478
12.478
-6%
20.134
19.846
280.214
18.331
21.842
29.251
7%
1%
-4%
13%
268.489
1%
-6%
3%
15%
-12%
12.653
17.655
21.065
21.154
19.310
0%
29.109
-17%
23 003
23.003
27.691
-4%
17%
1%
12%
-27%
-4%
-11%
7%
257.293
14.831
-6%
23%
17.834
-14%
23.499
29%
15.385
18.586
25.938
24.552
5%
6%
28.780
-19%
23.403
-9%
25.284
16%
29.365
-19%
23.779
22%
-9%
25.033
-7%
23.348
-14%
20.176
35%
22.736
13.969
22003
8%
-7%
-16%
-13%
20.106
19.782
19.491
27.595
31.911
30%
3%
-3%
289.691
269.728
19.145
-3%
18.520
8%
19.619
7%
-2%
24.528
20.818
26.379
25.599
23.733
-9%
26.273
27.231
-6%
25.616
24.865
12%
23.591
16%
17.990
43%
25.779
-12%
22.780
-6%
21.403
-6%
20.119
10%
22.140
-7%
20.480
31.024
-2%
30.515
-4%
29.440
-8%
27.021
10%
29.858
7%
32006
-1%
31.742
1999
27.460
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
5%
-5%
-7%
18.355
11%
26.427
-7%
19.369
12%
27.868
5%
-33%
21.088
21.524
-3%
-8%
-15%
22.616
-4%
-2%
25.069
11%
27.786
-19%
4%
21.198
-6%
19.842
17%
-6%
29.792
6%
31.685
6%
2005
2006
-21%
7.938
13.402
-100%
19.666
35%
18.825
-40%
19.819
-36%
29.046
15%
26.553
12%
-6%
29.251
23.520
-10%
267.295
4%
28.326
6%
11%
DEC
-4%
24%
-24%
10 414
10.414
6%
26.643
26.652
279.745
19.976
19.271
1%
4%
-3%
28.929
-17%
17%
12.603
18.754
-20%
20%
5%
7%
19.418
7%
267.669
11.771
-7%
-4%
-1%
24%
2007
24.739
28.036
22.396
23.292
33.583
28.551
-6%
24.923
25.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
-
26.229
1.761
2%
5%
28%
2 793
2.793
-19%
19%
1.959
-17%
2.650
-20%
-7%
2.045
0%
1.637
30%
2.124
-3%
1.651
23%
1.616
23%
2.268
9%
2.591
-12%
-8%
1 619
1.619
-1%
1%
2.119
-6%
1.600
2.134
-10%
1.995
2.033
-12%
1.922
1.991
-20%
2.474
-8%
2.289
4%
2.254
5%
1.928
17%
1.996
5%
2.103
-17%
2.158
7%
2.317
-1%
1.889
28%
2.417
-19%
2.580
-4%
2.479
-9%
1999
24.193
2000
1.795
1.598
2.264
2.391
2.364
-13%
-20%
-17%
-4%
1.275
1.664
-3%
1.845
-4%
1.741
-9%
29%
-29%
-31%
1.743
17%
2.298
-16%
1.965
-8%
2.258
-17%
2001
22.244
21.085
1.535
2.061
1.706
1.631
5%
1.901
37%
49%
2.046
-5%
2.153
25%
1.704
1.482
67%
23%
17%
-2%
-3%
3%
2.125
3%
1.764
0%
1.631
-14%
1.749
1.922
-13%
1.802
-6%
1.866
25%
2.037
2002
28%
54%
2.480
2.730
-10%
2.716
-16%
2 552
2.552
-18%
18%
56%
34%
2.352
1.668
59%
2.647
1.697
24%
2.098
2.324
-3%
2.253
2003
-9%
2004
26.891
3%
10%
1.794
2.264
2.038
6%
5%
-7%
1.980
2.394
14%
23%
2.150
4%
2.155
2.269
-15%
1.930
2.444
-11%
2.170
2.066
4%
27.713
23.219
25.997
-40%
14.376
13.373
15.592
-40%
7%
15%
-5%
1.851
-27%
2 735
2.735
-35%
35%
1.351
1.791
1
791
2.636
-7%
2.454
2.309
4%
2.212
-13%
2.576
15%
27.425
1.916
MAR
FEB
JAN
1-11/2009
-36%
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-100%
NOV
OCT
SEP
3%
-53%
DEC
-3,4%
17.587
AUG
JUL
2.394
-1%
2.367
-18%
1.844
968
1.142
1.385
2 323
2.323
-10%
2 102
2.102
-11%
2 262
2.262
APR
-4%
2.412
-48%
1.941
MAR
19%
2.280
-1%
2.247
7%
2 105
2.105
21%
2.544
-9%
2.966
-28%
-24%
6%
2.502
-10%
2.256
2.175
11%
-9%
2.418
7%
2.597
2%
2.656
-17%
2.200
-34%
4%
2.177
11%
2.410
-11%
2.143
25%
2.669
-40%
12%
2.534
14%
2.880
-4%
2.763
1%
2.791
-33%
2005
MAY
20.247
-61%
2.406
JUN
APR
-49%
-33%
JUL
22.845
5%
SEP
AUG
18.091
11.720
11.956
32.627
2008
28.773
OCT
-2,2%
210.043
-13%
35.000
30.000
NOV
2006
2007
2008
1.870
1.256
1.458
1.599
JUN
MAY
FEB
JAN
1.862
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
100
Hungary: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
250.000
208.426
200.000
18.003
18.713
18.842
150.000
16.492
New cars
registrations
16.670
18.073
100.000
18.450
18.317
17.648
50.000
-1%
10%
-7%
-12%
-1%
-11%
-2%
1%
3%
21%
207.055
-7%
19 719
19.719
17.421
14.758
17.739
18 550
18.550
18.793
21.340
19.399
-19%
15.833
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
11.986
1%
2003
18.245
-2%
19.744
6%
16.318
7%
17.311
-5%
15.788
2%
16.910
-10%
18.992
-23%
17.005
-16%
7%
20.719
12.874
12.123
198.982
13%
16.651
16.368
DEC
-4%
10%
-12%
2004
-6%
-18%
18%
14.152
10.664
OCT
171.661
14.891
-13%
-4%
15.818
-11%
12.930
15.679
-2%
14.142
15.538
-11%
15.341
13.641
11%
13.827
-4%
14.591
6%
15.133
-26%
11.223
18.029
-10%
15.446
-10%
13.971
17.541
-20%
16.193
-10%
14.621
-59%
14.100
-6%
13.222
-65%
13.442
9%
14.620
-54%
15.713
-11%
13.967
-34%
12.388
8%
13.332
-46%
13.006
-4%
12.492
-52%
-10%
-14%
-5%
17.384
NOV
-9%
-20%
-14%
16.469
187 676
187.676
3%
3%
17.008
4%
18.010
4%
14%
2005
14.777
12.153
-21%
-13%
-16%
7%
2006
-11%
-26%
-29%
-16%
2007
153.278
9.602
10.069
12.872
13.287
SEP
-63%
-64%
-72%
-75%
78%
-78%
-73%
2008
24.978
2.924
-6%
-14%
-23%
2.512
20.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
15.000
10.000
1.903
-11%
1.838
2.078
3%
1.859
1.913
14%
1.867
1%
1.929
20%
-21%
1.781
1999
2000
2001
2002
1.923
2.229
24%
1.729
-11%
2003
-13%
20%
-1%
1%
-18%
1.856
-
2.508
2.271
1.889
5.000
-16%
23.595
1.961
2.133
1.914
-16%
-7%
-12%
-27%
-17%
-16%
-32%
2.299
2.312
1.400
1.545
2004
20.479
5%
-17%
3.019
1.908
1.599
1.716
0%
3%
4%
-8%
2.506
1.908
1.651
1.782
1.506
1.635
1.468
1.437
9%
1.943
1.776
18%
1.611
21%
1.570
31%
-5%
1.606
14%
1.337
1.265
2005
12%
1%
6%
2%
-31%
-18%
21.604
1.906
1.893
2.098
1.521
1.422
13%
21.920
2.652
-2%
10%
-5%
1.911
3%
23%
1.700
-18%
15%
1.848
5%
-1%
1.692
-4%
-8%
1 914
1.914
-9%
-20%
1.751
28%
-15%
1.509
16%
14%
2006
1.778
1.394
1.615
2007
18%
JUN
MAY
3%
-53%
2.109
-66%
1.757
-61%
1.509
-68%
1.783
-68%
1.840
-54%
1.585
-49%
1.933
-53%
2.054
-40%
1.666
2008
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
-100%
1.670
1.651
JUL
3.675
3.569
3.352
2.509
3.786
5.930
4.568
6.684
9.247
7.165
5.965
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
-55%
55%
2002
-23%
2.156
-8%
21.559
-25%
25%
16%
-19,6%
56.450
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
30.000
25.000
AUG
-100%
-24%
-21%
-14,7%
9.617
789
717
685
484
574
849
802
911
1.233
1.251
1.322
1-11/2009
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
101
Ireland: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
230.795
250.000
1.148
3.521
6.678
32%
174.242
200.000
2.040
9.444
-44%
13.044
29%
-29%
17 678
17.678
4.983
7.279
9.306
150.000
10.661
15.050
New cars
registrations
100.000
-8%
1%
17%
18.654
37%
17.318
44%
50.000
171.742
-22%
164.730
24%
-24%
891
2.682
5.377
5.565
8.804
12.294
-19%
-41%
26.951
22%
16.630
24.153
22.782
-29%
25.391
-33%
14.436
-30%
18.511
-37%
32.178
47%
16.671
-31%
-34%
22.696
-29%
23.458
30.149
33%
26.921
-
41.831
55%
-22%
33.345
-20%
1999
-5%
156 125
156.125
84%
1.642
2.126
5.113
6.382
8.712
-21%
-5%
15%
-52%
1%
-19%
0%
-4%
-7%
11.714
-22%
18.455
6%
15.478
-4%
18.803
2000
780
1.779
4.899
5.957
6.819
13.209
-16%
12.453
-1%
145 223
145.223
-7%
11.209
3%
31.074
2001
-3%
-9%
2%
13.255
7%
15.414
15.678
18%
15.883
4%
23.190
32.653
5%
2002
617
1.666
4.257
6.993
8.909
12.369
-13%
-4%
-4%
15%
22%
0%
8%
14%
1%
19.574
-5%
-19%
-7%
713
1.731
4.441
6.084
7.281
12.402
-9%
14 839
14.839
17.827
1%
24.173
-17%
154 136
154.136
6%
-6%
6
-20%
-7%
21.247
42%
11%
21.056
30%
8%
32.686
0%
2003
178.484
4%
996
1 684
1.684
4.027
6.125
9.062
12.105
61%
1%
-5%
-12%
15.428
14.378
2%
17.517
-2%
17.401
7%
24.690
0%
17.570
17.258
25.956
-1%
10%
24.616
6%
5%
17%
3%
38.329
25.469
2004
488
1.443
3 816
3.816
5.712
8.848
13.092
-14%
-5%
-7%
8%
42.804
18%
42.010
890
2.276
2.666
2.965
20 000
20.000
2.871
3.480
-12%
1%
6%
3%
27%
781
2.296
2.829
3.044
-9%
4.961
-23%
3.730
37%
4.421
4.468
5.780
5.554
19%
1999
-7%
-1%
495
1.645
2.515
2.762
2.831
3.319
4.413
2000
7%
-11%
59%
5%
-11%
1%
40.619
785
1.731
2.245
2.787
2.695
22%
-8%
8%
-37%
-42%
-19%
-25%
-5%
3.067
4.406
-8%
2.887
-37%
4.094
4.073
-21%
-35%
5.736
5.570
0%
7.541
45.660
45.824
-12%
24%
6.341
-10%
-11%
34%
19%
-28%
3.703
5.005
15%
-37%
-11%
6%
4.862
-
-41%
16.875
25%
-48%
48%
-51%
-2%
26.592
-21%
7.884
10.134
13.262
21.451
23.987
-10%
45.818
-8%
3.972
-3%
4.477
-22%
5.147
-8%
8.038
2001
-16%
82%
37.349
494
1.005
1.813
2.091
1.687
2.411
5.248
3.603
-9%
4.310
4.290
-17%
6.753
2002
1%
-29%
37.386
29%
350
1.241
1.979
2.698
2.406
43%
2.998
23%
9%
24%
3.596
-12%
-4%
0%
-34%
34%
-11%
0%
9%
2003
-5%
2%
7%
7%
27%
3.454
9%
3.216
24%
3.609
31%
4.710
35%
4.237
15%
3.062
3.253
4.282
4.228
4.886
6.488
2004
29%
18%
29%
28%
2007
5.437
5.456
5%
515
1.628
2.719
15%
3.452
-5%
3.188
47.275
20%
4%
4.092
3.954
-6%
-4%
6.348
30%
19%
6.058
-10%
4.587
3%
5.070
31%
2005
4.476
6.586
-29%
9%
-31%
-54%
6.584
-56%
-61%
-46%
-46%
-19%
271
707
1.236
1.387
1.283
2.181
2.462
3.119
-39%
-50%
11.722
20%
-63%
-10%
2007
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
-49%
JUL
-57%
-45%
-40%
-72%
-70%
-75%
-82%
-78%
2008
MAY
-100%
4.735
10.102
JUN
-70%
-48%
5.952
JUL
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
-54%
-14%
519
1.523
2.252
2.403
3.742
4.806
5.083
4.369
7.764
8.880
15.799
-77%
77%
3.627
-28%
17%
2006
-54%
37.062
-54%
-38%
2%
9.804
-10,6%
57.140
-35%
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-45%
28%
11%
8.352
592
1.548
2.241
3.121
3.297
4.019
12%
6 446
6.446
AUG
-13%
-67%
2008
-18%
3.074
-6%
6%
29%
-1%
6.801
24%
435
1.262
2.125
2.882
SEP
-19%
-64%
3%
2006
12%
OCT
-62%
-100%
-67%
-23%
4%
51.278
-8%
3.653
3.628
3.833
10.000
20.489
188
644
1.741
3.452
5.236
16.349
53.843
50.000
30.000
-40%
7%
2005
49.568
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
-54%
27.883
17%
NOV
151 603
151.603
-55%
-1%
60.000
40.000
61%
-61%
15.269
-2%
DEC
-19%
7%
12%
17%
186.325
4%
-51%
JUN
-12,4%
11.147
360
529
769
776
1.128
1.135
869
1.101
1.182
1.046
2.252
1-11/2009
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
102
Italy: New Vehicles yearly and monthly historical
registrations (1999 – 2009)
3.000.000
6%
178.826
51%
198.061
-28%
142.460
6%
150.384
-5%
142.819
-1%
3%
188.091
1%
198.367
0%
179.355
-5%
170.131
1%
172.213
4%
179.411
7%
169.448
2%
183.096
5%
159.740
-3%
192.258
-1%
190.100
-8%
175.181
7%
186.745
1%
94.210
8%
4%
165.982
9%
181.015
0%
4%
188.417
-2%
New cars
registrations
1.500.000
231.643
19%
1.000.000
230.297
-4%
217.650
-14%
222.830
9%
-4%
250.956
500.000
-
111.683
223.320
198.694
236.914
213.827
260.352
4%
217.803
11%
225.578
18%
1999
-13%
-4%
-3%
10%
-1%
3%
107.330
216.093
217.696
234.929
220.800
251.698
-3%
241.304
266.004
-7%
2%
2000
-6%
-5%
-17%
-12%
-12%
-16%
224.757
272.052
100.615
204.490
180 406
180.406
207.677
193.976
211.779
-11%
7%
5%
-11%
89.732
219.442
190 136
190.136
184.855
183.784
-5%
29%
1%
-4%
-5%
4%
12%
14%
272.215
-8%
180.445
86.120
208.794
198.272
207.022
208.769
249.711
-1%
2.237.444
0%
183.903
-1%
2.264.688
176.500
131 167
131.167
-6%
2.247.019
123.236
170.778
2.000.000
0%
2.279.612
4%
123.368
DEC
2.493.106
2.413.455
2.423.021
2.338.464
2.500.000
14%
3%
19%
-27%
-5%
98.133
214.088
236.488
151.133
197.715
4%
2.326.049
7%
140.903
15%
192.725
189.234
184.405
-18%
169.028
16%
-5%
177.467
77.904
7%
209.265
12%
-5%
-8%
230.473
10%
207.777
-17%
212.567
-3%
207.035
-5%
197.582
7%
211.562
7%
-9%
246.886
-15%
210.582
5%
220.742
-3%
214.440
12%
239.651
4%
2004
2005
261.371
3%
2006
193.018
-10%
9%
7%
2003
228.925
139.412
-26%
-19%
198.127
2002
214.194
248.195
-12%
2001
104.860
9%
11%
252.901
-100%
186.381
-10%
187.508
141.711
186 258
186.258
206.408
-2%
214.245
-18%
225.695
250.311
31%
9%
-7%
1%
218.768
-24%
-7%
233.708
-32%
2008
297.029
300.000
16%
255 097
255.097
250.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
24.227
23.203
200.000
150.000
23.488
20.138
12.032
22.110
22 800
22.800
100.000
22.469
21.734
50.000
24.508
20.152
-
18.236
1999
2%
24 752
24.752
16%
26.877
17%
27.394
29%
26.017
46%
17.509
22%
26.927
3%
23.551
15%
2%
303.066
41%
25.929
5%
22.745
18%
29.019
20%
24.157
21%
22.152
2000
45%
34 990
34.990
28%
-3%
25.957
15%
-21%
26.600
13%
-12%
20.532
15.418
-4%
-3%
-4%
6%
7%
25.922
24.991
27.627
50.633
-30%
33.341
30.596
23.247
13%
-52%
14.877
29.356
12%
28.031
7%
29 616
29.616
-18%
-8%
24.518
24.829
3%
23.308
24.070
-1%
24.779
11%
22.310
13.794
7%
26.471
24.496
24.941
-16%
21.412
12.415
4%
-27%
24.676
-22%
20.423
20%
23.088
12%
25.838
24.308
6%
25.650
24.349
11%
27.069
23.061
0%
22.946
23.115
-6%
21.651
-5%
2%
23.243
10%
25.638
28.330
0%
28.207
-14%
0%
24.175
6%
25.632
-10%
14%
25.281
4%
26.288
-12%
2002
5%
1%
-17%
-2%
2001
269.614
283.903
2003
2004
-2%
278.643
-6%
8%
-2%
300.387
6%
-4%
23.075
6%
-3%
23.789
4%
22.516
3%
21.579
14.237
-3%
13.784
-3%
5%
-12%
25.807
25.637
22.651
-6%
9%
3 %
35%
7%
22 826
22.826
23.369
-4%
4%
24.526
25.278
24.358
13%
311.421
-7%
24.374
-20%
27.745
-27%
290.113
-15%
19.546
20.133
29.500
24.372
17%
16.108
-17%
13.361
-26%
13%
27.592
-3%
26.844
-35%
1%
28.135
-15%
23.989
-29%
-2%
2%
29 748
29.748
-9%
9%
27.088
-22%
27.817
30 491
30.491
23.049
-30%
24.609
0%
24.709
15%
28.447
32.524
-7%
30.383
-11%
26.930
3%
23.702
14%
26.926
-12%
23.795
15%
27.318
-37%
10%
23.857
4%
24.732
1%
24.960
14%
28.456
-34%
-21%
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
-2,8%
AUG
192.430
JUL
16.565
17.382
17.010
8.684
19 009
19.009
JUN
18.435
1%
22%
2008
166.319
-32%
24.277
SEP
158.454
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
18.788
26.663
2007
215.443
-32%
-1%
2006
189.659
-18%
-5%
2005
189.877
-100%
8%
24.952
85.105
-34%
17%
-5%
190.325
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-22%
OCT
AUG
196.109
210.962
345.462
14%
-
13%
400.000
350.000
1.991.546
206.317
-3%
2007
-1,6%
1 6%
7%
-8%
203.748
NOV
-8%
9%
8%
51%
-13%
2.161.675
-29%
192.084
228.643
-13%
207.049
-1%
-12%
196.125
2%
1%
97.168
162.223
19.289
21.253
17.220
18.795
1-11/2009
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
103
Iceland: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
20.000
18.060
18.000
16.000
14.000
12.000
New cars
registrations
15.377
759
959
10.000
8.000
-28%
923
-23%
1.159
-8%
550
736
848
-8%
1.071
1.161
1.794
1.968
3%
-31%
-3%
6.000
4.000
2.000
-
1.440
13%
-23%
1.607
-28%
1.035
-45%
1.336
-29%
48%
1.328
65%
1.371
46%
1.407
81%
1.807
1.198
1.235
1.908
-47%
-51%
-10%
7%
1999
21%
-46%
42%
-41%
-60%
-55%
-51%
51%
-39%
1.432
1.140
1.125
25%
-12%
13.569
1.630
-50%
1.104
-36%
1.161
-43%
1.023
-48%
1.105
-42%
2000
7.245
272
394
501
426
541
602
1.162
812
703
657
532
643
2001
-4%
28%
8%
27%
11%
5%
20%
-7%
12%
-25%
-38%
-21%
-34%
6.943
348
425
636
474
567
725
1.081
906
530
410
418
423
2002
46%
9.885
20%
509
692
804
766
681
52%
1.103
63%
26%
62%
30%
41%
68%
57%
51%
903
31%
0%
905
805
22%
938
14%
11%
29%
1.400
0%
1.198
32%
32%
748
688
657
639
2003
11.968
77%
39%
13%
14%
779
1.229
1.799
1.196
-27%
68%
2.543
47%
80%
86%
1.169
1.314
44%
1.139
33%
54%
13%
2005
44%
9%
3.000
24%
2.500
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
42%
34%
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
-
1.834
125
131
178
134
134
205
183
173
153
187
115
116
1999
2.270
177
-3%
176
-46%
57%
172
-60%
211
-9%
170
46%
36%
6%
13%
24%
35%
186
268
236
162
212
143
157
2000
32%
-39%
-47%
27%
54%
-44%
-44%
-47%
47%
-58%
-41%
-36%
-48%
-17%
-27%
64%
-22%
1.273
108
93
93
85
96
99
113
139
104
110
118
115
2001
78%
-18%
16%
12%
19%
-1%
-16%
-21%
-32%
-34%
-34%
-43%
-37%
-35%
997
89
104
111
84
81
78
77
92
69
63
74
75
2002
47%
65%
199%
118%
108%
57%
58%
13%
20%
-1%
57%
1.640
43%
158
121
163
139
242
170
160
144
109
71
89
74
2003
52%
45%
-43%
16%
2.171
-4%
248
51%
173
60%
248
201
139
198
54%
55%
36%
32%
211
34%
193
60%
174
38%
60%
142%
172
15%
102
51%
112
2004
266
239
303
222
278
112%
78%
2%
16%
-18%
30%
7%
1.486
2.612
1 765
1.765
1.275
-11%
-13%
1.950
-46%
1.107
2.172
1.683
237
216
199
2005
-43%
1.182
DEC
NOV
OCT
-86%
9.033
-14%
46
74
181
584
429
578
-38%
1.991
-48%
-68%
-61%
-44%
-35%
968
258
272
277
362
1.432
45%
379
13%
308
-95%
20%
332
-86%
86%
26%
314
-60%
21%
348
-68%
351
-61%
-27%
202
66%
394
19%
257
34%
-34%
235
2006
271
-8%
249
216
-91%
2 011
2.011
MAY
63
76
95
135
374
722
185
71
73
91
126
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
1.731
-55%
-37%
-13%
262
-3%
-91%
JUN
-18,4%
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-49%
49%
377
-91%
2008
-95%
395
-64%
48%
252
-1%
-35%
1.035
-2%
9%
-69%
9%
-53%
49%
-84%
-89%
3.675
JUL
-58%
622
855
249
288
-15%
1.206
8%
AUG
-100%
-28%
2007
SEP
-78%
-85%
953
1.479
235
18%
2 327
2.327
10%
-23%
11%
262
-95%
1.279
1.360
9%
305
327
-95%
26%
2006
-4%
270
850
1.365
1.115
3.408
3.124
-43%
-2%
4.000
3.500
15.942
3%
-18%
1.091
965
-23%
-12%
1.558
23%
38%
1.394
2.011
58%
-7%
618
947
1.080
-23%
41%
17.129
-17%
47%
988
954
742
730
2004
-5%
51%
-3%
24%
2007
13
14
46
125
113
138
179
-79%
114%
-50%
-62%
-69%
-75%
192
-72%
172
-94%
229
-91%
242
268
2008
JUL
-100%
-90%
-83%
-82%
-15,0%
360
30
23
48
35
34
51
12
15
24
41
47
1-11/2009
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
104
Luxembourg: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
60.000
1%
50.000
40.476
-6%
40.000
New cars
registrations
41 896
41.896
4%
2.160
2.477
30.000
2.032
2.716
7%
2.021
2.897
3.047
16%
3.545
-3%
1%
2.671
2.231
-2%
2.610
2.401
8%
3.308
12%
-7%
3.509
16%
-3%
4.767
8%
3.551
3.504
4.349
36%
4.720
-
2.536
2.686
3.846
3.802
4.186
-12%
4.240
5.178
-4%
5.317
3%
1%
-7%
-7%
1%
43.403
3.565
5%
2.798
2.191
-18%
3.782
-2%
3.779
-3%
-1%
20%
2%
10%
-1%
0%
1.882
2.703
4.068
5.276
6%
11%
43.620
2.266
2.768
3.757
2.953
2.427
5.278
11%
15%
22%
7%
9%
4%
3.735
-1%
-10%
3.415
4.013
-1%
7%
27%
10%
5.261
0%
24%
-10%
9%
5.420
10.000
42.833
-1%
3.030
3 606
3.606
20.000
10%
2%
48.234
2.616
5.179
20%
2.394
5%
9%
3.390
1%
3.431
4.015
-4%
3.837
5%
3.205
8%
3.470
-7%
2.527
4.010
4.338
4 408
4.408
2.773
10%
-2%
-1%
1%
5.792
4.299
4 448
4.448
6.209
-4%
50.837
2.521
16%
3.730
2%
4.018
17%
7%
2.801
4.059
5%
3%
4.916
4%
14%
5 822
5.822
5.312
4%
51.332
2%
2.926
-6%
3.823
10%
-10%
4.688
3.483
52.359
-6%
4.231
4.621
4 598
4.598
-4%
4.053
16%
0%
14%
6%
5.612
14%
2%
-15%
-4%
-4%
-14%
4.811
4.902
6.419
JUL
-10%
4.317
-18%
4.028
-12%
4.479
-8%
5.875
-2%
5.832
3%
6.007
-11%
5.355
-11%
4.372
8%
4.713
-1%
4.669
-7%
4.332
13%
4.888
-14%
4.223
7%
4.506
-8%
4.152
0%
3.083
-3%
2.981
14%
3.385
-1%
3.368
-6%
3.177
7%
3.392
12%
3.793
10%
4.167
-6%
3.908
2%
3.982
-21%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
9.000
8.000
14%
7.000
6%
11%
6.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
5.469
318
388
418
362
297
473
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
-
23%
-27%
6.393
419
-2%
304
468
477
8%
568
26%
527
38%
500
14%
339
4%
518
24%
421
568
-1%
470
21%
642
-25%
479
21%
639
-5%
609
486
31%
557
-12%
490
26%
619
630
1.000
32%
6 045
6.045
402
496
1999
629
13%
41%
567
-5%
3%
509
-4%
0%
2000
580
-7%
5.961
1%
364
4%
-17%
-21%
471
592
-25%
-23%
-15%
-6%
431
333
3%
-2%
558
-18%
-15%
491
-11%
-8%
559
-4%
1%
626
3%
708
-15%
539
-14%
491
-4%
2001
-1%
20%
605
461
470
2002
9%
5.894
-18%
274
362
505
404
342
460
437
534
646
661
24%
6%
1%
-10%
-10%
-15%
-13%
14%
-19%
-26%
-35%
51%
698
-39%
21%
571
-30%
2003
113%
4.823
54%
3%
291
364
16%
455
46%
364
289
399
11%
6%
5 966
5.966
-45%
-12%
495
5%
490
467
-5%
423
-28%
401
305
415
422
443
530
2%
439
-1%
470
423
401
2004
343
619
432
477
6 094
6.094
562
499
429
2%
-6%
555
5%
462
5%
93%
907
681
607
12%
12%
472
9%
516
28%
512
2%
524
41%
2005
14%
16%
16%
34%
58%
56%
29%
63%
-34%
-10%
2006
5%
-1%
6.943
392
13%
7.836
-2%
386
-3%
574
29%
568
18%
536
7%
482
649
717
-13%
596
24%
13%
615
544
518
733
635
517
JAN
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-1,2%
-37%
4.834
363
-42%
657
-26%
742
-46%
489
-40%
357
443
733
59%
825
2008
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
-35%
-13%
MAR
3.157
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
663
694
APR
FEB
-100%
-44%
MAY
4.165
-45%
35%
2007
-38%
JUN
4.768
696
7%
-8%
752
555
SEP
AUG
-6%
2002
OCT
2.579
4.627
2001
NOV
-12%
5%
2000
3.302
DEC
3.494
4.394
1999
44.465
4.301
2.918
5 092
5.092
0,9%
-100%
3.426
11%
-21%
5.507
2.761
4.488
2.929
1%
31%
5.931
1%
3.241
3.941
-8%
10%
-2%
-8%
5%
48.517
462
355
283
406
602
-37%
464
-26%
610
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
105
Latvia: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
35.000
32.771
28%
30.000
-19%
54%
25.000
61%
64%
25.582
48%
29%
New cars
registrations
46%
34%
15.000
8.713
10.000
5.000
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
895
699
830
731
714
813
781
889
633
668
512
548
2003
42%
18%
26%
33%
11%
-6%
2%
110%
44%
23%
30%
11.217
1.195
993
978
924
949
906
731
904
1.331
963
628
715
2004
68%
50%
49%
48%
83%
95%
74%
1%
14%
57%
20%
16.602
1.749
1.666
1.470
1.380
1.406
1.657
1.425
1.570
1.339
1.097
983
860
2005
54%
56%
21%
62%
54%
-55%
2.621
-59%
2 687
2.687
-55%
-44%
13%
2.298
2.725
8%
2.699
2.374
23%
2.131
42%
2.192
40%
2.011
2.309
52%
2.416
69%
2.037
39%
1.850
57%
2.290
2.821
61%
20.000
-4%
4%
1.365
1.351
2006
39%
-39%
2.856
3.226
3.361
DEC
-42%
50%
2.783
-32%
2.601
-75%
1.020
1.063
1.202
1.294
1.555
-100%
1 850
1.850
-75%
75%
1.756
-75%
1.851
-66%
-45%
-21%
93%
SEP
19.831
-46%
2.838
2.511
OCT
-35%
39%
84%
NOV
2.250
1.893
-26%
1.870
-14%
2007
2.227
10.000
7%
53%
8.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
6.839
4.060
6.000
28%
4.000
2.000
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
2.657
64%
212
349
309
239
128
197
226
274
138
191
222
172
2003
8%
15%
3%
40%
67%
33%
-12%
146%
31%
-5%
29%
3.403
347
401
335
247
179
329
301
241
339
250
212
222
2004
19%
-16%
6%
49%
71%
110%
-9%
0%
24%
9%
5%
17%
20%
292
425
499
423
376
301
300
298
370
262
248
266
2005
68%
687
135%
456
7%
55%
99%
62%
84%
96%
26%
83%
104%
773
39%
9.926
736
696
1.073
-70%
-76%
-75%
-70%
-76%
-78%
2008
-38%
873
-46%
48%
900
-60%
-83%
318
299
552
470
362
452
430
525
-100%
690
-86%
-73%
43%
845
-49%
154%
952
-45%
375
1%
687
0%
678
63%
872
-35%
571
-91%
105%
714
-3%
693
-73%
-77%
88%
738
3%
760
-85%
47%
2006
2007
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
AUG
6.122
555
392
MAR
SEP
-49%
608
349
APR
OCT
-46%
41%
MAY
-57%
840
535
360
330
387
387
454
592
447
554
568
453
496
1-11/2009
1
11/2009
JUN
-57%
4%
589
-8,8%
5.028
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
51%
842
JUL
-73%
12.000
45%
AUG
-66%
2008
-86%
-83%
-81%
-81%
-83%
-14,7%
JUL
1.027
JUN
80
75
78
67
87
74
74
65
153
161
113
1-11/2009
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
106
Lithuania: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
25.000
21.606
52%
20.000
45%
1.783
36%
10%
New cars
registrations
0%
31%
10%
20%
10.000
7.543
5.000
-
26%
1999
2000
2001
2002
756
683
764
538
585
775
594
747
701
469
456
475
2003
7%
45%
7%
-9%
30%
18%
45%
72%
18%
57%
9.493
990
818
814
782
625
707
771
881
1.013
809
539
744
4%
2%
15%
28%
42%
9%
-7%
-5%
40%
5%
2004
10.467
987
902
844
797
721
907
1.097
964
946
766
752
784
2005
14.234
25%
1.230
38%
1.243
72%
46%
69%
30%
21%
36%
20%
52%
22%
16%
1.448
1 160
1.160
59%
43%
59%
62%
66%
1.216
1.182
1.323
1.308
1.026
1.047
1 727
1.727
1.406
-8%
1.659
36%
25%
26%
61%
-69%
DEC
-100%
NOV
-53%
OCT
-70%
SEP
-67%
AUG
1.525
-25%
2.300
2.070
-27%
1.929
1.912
8%
1.911
-13%
2.133
2.200
5%
2.026
65%
1.538
51%
1.461
90%
-73%
2.535
2.209
-67%
-69%
-70%
2.196
1.154
2.432
66%
1.465
53%
-53%
2007
-76%
-69%
2008
14.188
12.000
10.463
35%
10.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
-36%
38%
31%
8.000
25%
27%
4.297
6.000
4.000
2.000
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
475
502
642
356
328
393
329
373
302
211
180
206
2003
7%
35%
37%
35%
51%
-5%
39%
105%
39%
36%
92%
5.614
594
639
686
482
449
530
496
356
419
432
250
281
2004
40%
20%
29%
20%
18%
24%
81%
10%
14%
66%
80%
7.772
0%
10%
1.143
101%
729
1.246
872
787
54%
946
12%
721
-51%
42%
1.387
-74%
%
54%
57%
36%
113%
-27%
1.741
54%
734
449
448
99%
49%
-12%
1.263
32%
26%
2005
-4%
898
62%
8%
-31%
17%
893
278%
701
892
820
621
537
626
613
644
461
492
415
507
36%
94%
2006
1.464
-62%
9.756
-59%
1.149
-54%
1.238
1.290
1.535
1.269
1.129
895
868
-1,4%
6.924
496
522
504
530
560
889
698
797
653
533
742
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
16.000
14.000
JUL
-62%
55%
1.134
1.167
915
908
2006
22.217
52%
-52%
2.179
75%
15.000
3%
-42%
-33%
-38%
-31%
-100%
802
-72%
1.321
-2%
1.105
27%
1.141
36%
1.181
2007
2008
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
AUG
JUL
-57%
-71%
-75%
-88%
-79%
4%
MAY
SEP
-83%
345
324
528
603
523
831
1 052
1.052
JUN
-90%
-90%
-84%
-82%
-85%
-14,6%
1.662
140
151
150
148
103
169
104
135
178
201
183
1-11/2009
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
107
Netherlands: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
700.000
600.000
611.486
-2%
9.848
39.172
597.624
71%
16.857
40.458
-49%
530.231
42.978
-5%
8 662
8.662
38.260
136%
43.348
2%
43.796
-2%
20.404
37.660
-6%
40.596
-1%
43.153
-1%
41.755
1%
40.883
45.216
-13%
49.796
-12%
46.687
500.000
3%
48.741
38.784
-8%
-11%
51.994
400.000
New cars
registrations
58.666
300.000
54.057
9%
-21%
-17%
42.239
40.943
48.437
10%
58.125
3%
58.839
8%
54.935
60.985
-7%
66.735
-21%
53.660
-15%
200.000
51.787
100.000
9%
4%
91.926
-
140.000
131.051
10.437
10.564
100.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
80.000
-3%
1999
4.919
120.000
9.891
88.909
-1%
-3%
-8%
-4%
4%
129.537
4.774
7%
10.630
-13%
-17%
9.622
26%
11.209
12.156
10.795
10.203
-
1999
2000
70.380
44.727
-7%
-17%
40.361
1%
-44%
488 841
488.841
-1%
1%
-15%
11.401
32.035
11%
-12%
38.132
4%
0%
2%
7%
1%
-2%
47.044
-5%
42.523
-9%
70.836
-3%
2002
42.484
36.377
40.723
50 363
50.363
45.339
39.652
44.725
38.727
8%
3%
-4%
-11%
-4%
-2%
-15%
5%
5%
483 745
483.745
-4%
4%
12.630
34.599
-31%
39.418
40.658
32.257
38.980
49 182
49.182
38.593
41.583
46.929
39.021
1%
68.883
1%
2003
465.152
6%
34.987
11%
38.892
9%
43.488
-9%
39.608
3%
32.898
4%
34.110
21%
-11%
7%
-8%
-4%
-1%
-3%
38.003
45.056
37.132
40.985
45.589
34.161
1%
2004
-4%
8%
11%
-10%
12%
36.332
48 673
48.673
41.327
36.830
50.980
39.817
70.943
-2%
2005
505 538
505.538
8.963
38.151
42.251
40.625
8%
8%
2%
6%
1%
41.303
39.141
52.575
42.135
39.025
51.268
41.382
4%
17%
-12%
69.895
-31%
9%
-4%
-3%
48%
483.970
13.008
35.162
8.776
33.134
2%
4%
4%
69.231
-1%
2006
116.195
3.601
9.227
8.708
8.879
-11%
9.924
-8%
11.201
-7%
-14%
-17%
-1%
-7%
-14%
8.082
7.531
9.480
9.424
-6%
6%
10 564
10.564
-5%
7%
9.941
-14%
9.818
-11%
8.629
-13%
13.611
9.645
2002
102.146
11%
113.732
34%
3.642
-11%
-3%
-11%
2.727
7.411
23%
8.912
11%
3%
8.340
6.764
12%
8.204
22%
-13%
-11%
-9%
8.409
9.027
3%
2%
7%
33%
8 905
8.905
10.108
2%
9.267
7.542
9.975
7%
2003
-28%
-29%
-37%
-39%
-42%
-68%
9.122
63%
10.010
-14%
11.149
-15%
10%
-2%
-18%
11.168
11%
8.830
14.509
9.083
9.081
2%
-10%
-16%
11.381
2001
3.080
7.632
-5%
9.272
15.575
107.759
9.967
7%
-4%
-1%
-20%
-22%
-1%
9.459
-19%
-21%
14.234
2004
-1%
93.051
2.610
6.410
5.686
5.677
4.397
3.230
18.157
10%
196%
40%
37%
46%
8.484
9.037
7.449
14.107
2005
9%
-60%
7.723
36%
7.766
12%
8.270
28%
109%
6.753
31%
7.652
34%
6.971
39%
25%
11%
8%
-12%
10.615
41.875
41.275
-4%
40.079
2%
48.233
-8%
9%
8%
-8%
-3%
-14%
10.016
8.023
12.349
2006
2%
9%
0%
-100%
3.114
379.593
AUG
-15%
27.694
JUL
-18%
35.669
-30%
-16%
16%
10.539
4%
9.267
8.990
47.182
-28%
30.261
-27%
34.532
FEB
33.936
JAN
50.326
-33%
66.329
-15%
9.655
9.145
3.187
7.988
10 426
10.426
9.663
8.157
-9%
1%
5%
0%
6%
10.244
42%
8.707
33%
12.305
29%
8.989
10.830
9.703
9 657
9.657
14.499
11.600
2007
15.883
2008
APR
35.461
30.857
MAR
56.166
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
120.582
8.868
10.266
MAY
33.525
-33%
-20%
-1%
JUN
33.667
27.825
42.247
2%
9 988
9.988
SEP
-7%
2008
111.088
-4,7%
-26%
22%
68.719
OCT
-24%
45.796
11%
9.001
7.014
-11%
7.197
29.783
39.596
2007
60%
-58%
7.807
102.153
NOV
499 918
499.918
2%
9%
-16%
-15%
16.143
46.950
2%
8.758
11.285
-4%
-11%
-15%
-9%
11%
43.492
10.024
-12%
12.541
3%
16.780
-1%
1%
-14%
-2%
12.172
20.000
-25%
-4%
12.241
-6%
41.757
36.259
39.902
49.985
56.536
510.702
-4%
-10%
10.150
9.948
DEC
-4%
2001
9.598
10.308
10.972
-21%
2000
1%
13.572
-14%
-22%
9.678
60.000
40.000
-11%
-39%
-100%
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-5,7%
-54%
-46%
-41%
-45%
-42%
-31%
NOV
OCT
SEP
-38%
-34%
DEC
73.081
4.950
4.798
6.381
4.433
5.268
5.946
5.599
6.622
-44%
8.108
-33%
7.733
-17%
13.243
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
108
Norway: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
140.000
18%
115.645
120.000
101.278
100.000
7.024
8.794
8.443
80.000
8.299
New cars
registrations
7.366
60.000
10.292
40.000
20.000
-
29%
97.376
-4%
6.245
-11%
1%
-13%
13%
-3%
1%
89.921
30%
5.322
18%
6.278
11%
6.781
18%
8.030
8.089
12%
9.072
-1%
6.985
10%
-7%
7.658
7.273
-6%
6.818
8.724
0%
8.692
20%
7.725
12%
5.822
-9%
7.491
-9%
15%
8.342
-3%
7.465
-1%
7.058
8.975
4%
7.789
7.161
-14%
91.916
-6%
0%
7.280
-14%
8.485
9.165
-7%
8.095
22%
8.507
-10%
7.668
9.871
88.721
8.891
-2%
-7%
7.889
-7%
7.324
5%
-12%
8.671
-9%
7.912
3%
-6%
7.188
23%
8.833
-20%
-1%
9.981
9.262
9.161
-12%
9.180
-5%
8.884
-2%
8.795
1%
-11%
-6%
5%
-3%
7%
6%
9.405
7%
10.961
-13%
27%
8.326
0%
18%
8.202
-10%
8.233
-14%
-2%
7.972
7.068
3%
-16%
6.664
5%
7.024
-7%
6.544
8.233
17%
9.656
-18%
7.878
-6%
7.386
-6%
6.976
6.940
2002
8.165
11%
58%
-3%
2001
15%
9.320
9 939
9.939
34%
9.341
2000
20%
10.031
2003
-1%
-20%
20%
8.164
7.719
-10%
22%
10.455
109.907
109.164
-16%
2004
8.544
9.690
9.879
9.714
10.089
9.493
8.325
7.375
3%
5%
-3%
7%
-17%
3%
-12%
1%
2005
11.033
34%
8.744
8.673
8.842
6%
-14%
9.222
-15%
10.453
-33%
11.646
-28%
9.340
-9%
20%
7.024
9.098
1999
12.376
97%
-7%
7.500
-15%
-5%
129.195
-20%
110.617
7 819
7.819
10.786
-27%
23%
12.062
-20%
6.952
SEP
13%
9.600
AUG
2%
10.187
JUL
-2%
9.530
JUN
-22%
7.967
21%
8.453
7.833
19%
10.154
16%
9.538
15%
12007
10.415
6%
8.854
32%
11.704
-36%
15%
11.264
-16%
9.506
-20%
7.504
FEB
33%
9.793
8%
10.567
-41%
7.601
JAN
70%
12.685
-22%
9.901
-46%
8.350
9.819
7.345
7.458
11.083
-13%
-15%
2007
9%
12%
50 000
50.000
7%
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
40.000
35.798
10%
-14%
3%
3.328
-10%
-6%
3.231
15%
3.238
2.819
2.936
2.856
3.123
23%
3.604
59%
4 535
4.535
-18%
2.560
2.938
3.019
3.506
15%
3.148
20.000
10.000
-
1999
40.154
3.938
3.569
3.000
2.550
2.751
2.889
2.592
2.640
3.118
2.706
3.329
-32%
2.667
2.868
2.903
-5%
30.000
38.473
4%
4%
8%
30%
-13%
22%
-22%
3%
6%
-24%
-33%
-48%
1%
-6%
-1%
3.360
2.618
13%
3.519
38%
4.865
12%
3.043
12%
3.417
-26%
3.702
-4%
3.540
-21%
11%
2000
15%
2001
51%
-7%
-10%
-54%
9%
31.329
2.478
2.945
3.075
2.461
2.420
2.342
2.579
2.769
2.707
2.233
2.541
2.779
2002
17%
12%
3%
34%
0%
11%
15%
-1%
-1%
26%
5%
-1%
34.287
2.905
5%
14%
3.286
11%
3.160
34%
3.292
3
292
2.412
2.608
2.976
2.746
2.683
2.814
2.666
2.739
2003
27%
41%
19%
21%
41.927
3.451
3.589
3.651
3.234
18%
12%
3.310
0%
4.198
16%
3.278
28%
3.245
3.462
17%
3.116
5%
11%
3.011
2004
7%
5%
14%
46%
53.654
9.605
9.670
10.217
-27%
2008
4.324
4.060
9%
4.297
7%
4.441
3.815
3.711
6%
4.194
16%
3.797
-13%
4.156
3.696
3.284
3.443
2005
16%
14%
-5%
4.087
-1%
17%
13%
3.537
9%
4 425
4.425
26%
4.422
3.597
25%
4.631
17%
3.838
15%
6.756
-1%
5.267
3.782
58.220
-5%
7 139
7.139
22%
4.878
25%
4.382
23%
10%
11%
47.140
OCT
88.425
8.390
14%
15%
3.973
2006
8%
3%
-18%
-51%
-39%
47.980
-28%
3.320
5.228
4.983
-15%
4.404
4.792
4.001
4.816
5.567
4.100
-20%
-9%
-8%
3.182
3.603
3.736
3.827
3.655
4.412
-17%
34%
5.308
-24%
4.158
4%
4.107
-9%
MAY
9.394
APR
7.581
MAR
7.421
6.287
5.353
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
70.000
14%
NOV
-1,3%
38%
8.793
2006
60.000
DEC
-100%
2007
4.621
-39%
-36%
-38%
-27%
-43%
5.476
-52%
4.058
-28%
4.343
-40%
3.747
-31%
2008
OCT
AUG
-20%
-26%
NOV
SEP
-100%
-25%
DEC
-2,0%
29.260
2.555
2.685
2 750
2.750
2.439
2.254
3.205
2.649
2.611
2.905
2.609
2.598
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
109
Poland: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
400.000
358.432
-11%
350.000
37.672
-37%
30 669
30.669
300.000
250.000
New cars
registrations
200.000
150 000
150.000
100.000
30.704
-33%
20.560
-20%
24.041
-16%
20.255
-16%
29.460
-25%
29.904
-23%
30.985
-16%
28.197
2000
2001
2002
22.099
23.164
26.037
45.069
44%
40%
19%
3%
2003
39.100
30.212
29.148
23%
-12%
-11%
0%
-100%
100%
238.993
15%
24.537
12%
27.634
-8%
25.286
24%
21.581
18%
24.647
2%
23.109
8%
24.898
33%
21.272
19%
22.753
-2%
20.408
3%
21.072
11%
20.875
20%
20.863
23.460
5%
24.665
JUN
17.766
-2%
19.097
-3%
27%
24.173
27.507
-3%
-2%
2%
26.856
19.610
7%
MAY
23%
25.790
2%
26.157
-3%
25.326
APR
11%
28.057
2%
28.736
9%
30.387
2%
31.107
28%
28.162
7%
30.199
235.522
18.680
17.121
15.750
17.181
16%
-10%
20.902
-2%
-39%
19.340
3%
23.922
-10%
19.826
22.228
-8%
-16%
2005
17 444
17.444
18.981
20.978
26%
20.444
27%
19.861
29%
21.626
21%
18.154
18.680
22%
2006
25.761
25.307
27.948
22.018
25%
22.770
2007
100.000
28.375
-6%
97.216
42%
63%
23%
38.916
40.000
20.000
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
4.678
4.334
4 104
4.104
3.291
2.568
2.859
3.329
3.030
2.864
2.894
2.656
2.309
2003
-5%
14%
57.339
29%
5.348
37%
5.599
64%
5.606
65%
76%
50%
40%
75%
72%
47%
28%
5.408
5
408
4.226
5.044
5.007
4.241
5.008
4.981
3.907
2.964
2004
10%
7%
-7%
-11%
-15%
-23%
-12%
12%
-18%
-7%
-3%
13%
66.749
34%
6%
54.481
5.908
6.004
5.233
4.815
3.592
3.896
4.412
4.751
4.128
4.617
3.773
3.352
2005
14%
6.290
14%
6.824
31%
5.956
45%
6.310
33%
5.198
5.183
29%
4%
44%
30%
25%
10%
39%
52%
50%
65%
5.713
4.947
5.932
39%
5.990
4.712
3.694
2006
57%
39%
9.685
9.703
8.471
7.202
7.884
8.545
8.182
8.266
8.349
7.391
41%
97.593
-19%
8.341
80.000
0%
5.197
2007
6.733
-29%
-46%
-100%
6 872
6.872
-25%
7.549
-34%
-11%
7.535
-37%
-11%
6.396
-22%
7.702
-2%
9.710
14%
-40%
-42%
-52%
7%
8.770
22%
10.061
-50%
25%
10.467
-45%
8.970
-43%
6.828
-30%
21%
31%
2008
SEP
AUG
JUL
MAR
FEB
JAN
26.660
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
2008
33%
60.000
OCT
0%
46%
47%
NOV
27.126
120.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
291.819
11%
23.196
2004
29 658
29.658
26.738
-57%
-24%
6,9%
-9%
24%
1%
-20%
-34%
11%
320.040
27.014
-11%
19.675
25.443
1999
19.218
293.305
-21%
-39%
27.945
-
23 574
23.574
DEC
9%
-26%
32.084
31.328
50.000
-37%
318.111
-49%
49%
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
5,3%
52.903
5.168
4.952
4.766
3.806
4.429
4.641
4.466
5.035
5.792
5.071
4.777
1-11/2009
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
110
Portugal: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
300.000
272.883
250.000
15.941
-6%
19.623
11%
18 380
18.380
17.302
200.000
17.642
-1%
150.000
100.000
19 381
19.381
15.380
120.000
100.000
26.916
-16%
25.031
23.662
-7%
22.317
-15%
80.000
60.000
20.503
20%
24.666
1999
19%
139.615
106%
11.638
21%
13.237
22%
12.246
-
-5%
10%
-7%
24.028
-7%
25.972
-8%
23.478
NOV
206 488
206.488
-16%
23%
7%
-10%
189.792
-7%
16.056
-2%
14.168
5%
14.459
4%
13.662
-1%
13.170
11.955
-10%
15.588
14.709
13.828
-35%
14.959
5%
17.324
12.551
-11%
18.725
3%
-6%
-13%
4%
18%
-4%
-25%
197.645
16.125
-12%
-20%
4%
-7%
4%
13.506
11.222
19.202
-8%
194.702
13%
13.605
0%
14.704
-8%
14.235
4%
12.399
11.695
-4%
18.402
-19%
21.594
-6%
8%
1%
5%
JUL
15.592
JUN
21.576
-15%
5%
19.757
16.280
19.457
4%
20.288
17.064
-1%
16.863
-1%
16.723
2%
17.072
-5%
19.047
21.176
20.886
4%
19.831
17.721
21.118
-15%
-24%
15.098
-4%
15.541
-1%
15.446
-9%
-5%
23.316
14.519
7%
-19%
18.960
-21%
14.951
-3%
14.446
14%
16.524
-5%
15.631
-7%
2006
14.105
14.463
18.449
-42%
23%
17.339
-42%
10%
15.845
-43%
2008
-34%
14.003
10.751
13.113
12.191
12.758
10.030
8.995
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-33%
-49%
-23%
23%
-22%
-33%
10.551
11.435
-13%
11.342
-31%
14.144
-38%
10.208
32%
13.482
-53%
11.531
26%
14.504
-36%
111.230
-34%
10.451
-27%
10.802
-28%
8.334
7.095
9.342
10.828
8.801
6.295
9.276
2001
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
12.186
9 948
9.948
FEB
-21%
AUG
-42%
7.872
2000
MAR
16.013
-35%
15.956
APR
17.151
-34%
22.045
MAY
12.094
10.512
-24%
6%
2007
15.184
-21%
13%
20.880
AUG
-13%
18.788
15%
-6,2%
1%
12.353
-1%
16.861
SEP
-100%
143.633
19.033
17.970
OCT
-33%
3%
20.979
36%
2005
13.822
-9%
19.504
2004
14.674
6%
23.022
9%
2003
-6%
7%
-8%
8%
0%
2002
15.679
15.386
-4%
-1%
2001
-3%
21.164
22.554
23%
0%
-25%
15.348
12.994
11.786
5%
20 340
20.340
26.552
38%
15.917
10%
213 389
213.389
6%
201.816
4%
19%
-15%
1999
-13%
25.607
13.564
6%
25.442
-5%
12.770
-1%
13.553
18.895
7%
11.512
-5%
13.729
-6%
18%
11.525
13.730
20.001
-31%
13.337
20.000
24.012
27.799
13.130
-10%
2000
166.514
11.942
40.000
27.018
27.778
11%
17%
22.397
9.605
14%
DEC
226.092
15.344
-17%
-10%
11.345
15.462
-14%
23.711
24.983
11.489
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
17.820
3%
10%
180.000
140.000
-22%
-11%
-6%
160.000
-26%
16.066
-11%
-
17 690
17.690
-11%
1%
25.392
31.682
-9%
17.708
19.389
-20%
50.000
0%
255.210
-11%
26.651
25.105
17.635
-1%
17.249
-6%
29.679
New cars
registrations
257.836
88.197
28%
7.124
6.941
7.931
6.030
4 506
4.506
6.993
6.539
7.607
7.527
7.464
8.086
23%
11.449
-36%
-30%
-30%
-30%
-4%
-15%
2002
-14%
12%
-8%
-15%
-3%
-2%
-6%
-1%
-19%
-18%
-16%
-25%
-40%
5%
76.032
7.977
6.358
6.758
5.879
4.429
6.567
6.472
6.176
6.196
6.280
6.098
6.842
-5%
11%
0%
6%
8%
-2%
10%
14%
14%
23%
1%
-9%
2003
80.168
-7%
7.573
7.064
6.739
6 239
6.239
4.786
6.458
7.100
7.038
7.072
7.714
6.141
6.244
2004
-7%
-11%
-2%
-10%
-11%
11%
-10%
-13%
-10%
-1%
5%
6%
-1%
-5%
75.769
7.061
6.583
6.009
6.088
4.285
5.762
7.872
6.348
6.186
6.953
6.049
6.573
2005
-4%
1%
1%
19%
3%
-7%
-25%
-8%
15%
2%
-2%
-3%
0%
74.821
6.781
6.678
6.062
7.236
4.400
5.347
5.932
5.867
7.114
7.095
5.915
6.394
2%
JUL
79.357
-6%
-13%
6.772
6.825
5.849
4.995
4 091
4.091
4.659
104%
12.113
32%
7.717
6.475
7.641
5.808
6.412
-4%
-31%
-7%
7%
-9%
8%
-2%
2006
0%
2007
-16%
-22%
66.574
-7%
6.374
5.292
5.455
5.009
3.759
5.737
5.610
6.248
5.728
6.348
5.429
5.585
0%
-8%
23%
-54%
-19%
-12%
-17%
-7%
-13%
2008
-39%
-11,6%
-100%
-10%
-25%
-14%
14%
-28%
-33%
-39%
-41%
-37%
-41%
-39%
-41%
40.811
4.747
4.104
4.290
2.725
3.855
3.433
3.706
3.614
3.753
3.293
3.291
1-11/2009
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
111
Romania: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
350.000
315.621
23%
300.000
256.364
20%
-14%
27.803
-53%
29.594
23.177
22%
13.054
13
054
14.466
-30%
20.478
23.252
200.000
23.957
New cars
registrations
22007
150.000
100.000
50.000
9%
0%
24.063
44%
-10%
24.454
-61%
18.817
13%
31.393
-6%
29.492
-61%
27 698
27.698
29%
30 337
30.337
2%
23.488
40%
23.469
14%
20.239
32%
20.400
26%
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
24.011
27.181
-29%
32.912
1%
23.044
26.969
-4%
2006
14.326
70.000
38%
45.796
5.073
LCV/MB
LCV/MB
+
+
CV/B
CV/B
registrations
40.000
4.876
4.624
4.192
30.000
20.000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
-60%
38%
19.712
-64%
39%
5.816
6%
4.230
-1%
50%
5.633
5.671
55%
3.815
43%
-5%
-14%
62.826
2.441
2.677
4.719
-61%
4.493
-67%
5.554
-65%
6.630
-75%
6.698
9%
-79%
-70%
6 578
6.578
32%
4.985
23%
7.258
-80%
5.907
60%
6.224
-74%
79%
4.225
-72%
3.895
2.361
2007
-73%
2008
122.066
9 914
9.914
10.380
9.342
9.607
12.211
12.716
13.336
14.884
13.484
9.082
7.110
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
-100% for December
2009 were not
available
-14%
5.329
17%
-16,4%
-71%
6.165
52%
3.274
-54%
-8%
51%
2.484
2006
-1%
5.519
44%
2.728
1999
22.651
19%
3.745
4.086
-
21%
5.869
2.954
3.945
10.000
-46%
20%
43%
-43%
-36%
-66%
7.182
42%
50.000
-59%
-59%
23.464
AUG
-49%
2008
63.233
60.000
30 930
30.930
SEP
-31%
25.060
2007
OCT
-100%
23.171
-7%
18.704
14.887
14.973
29.347
NOV
-55%
-51%
27%
250.000
DEC
270.995
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
-26,3%
18.303
2.313
1.832
1.756
1.579
1.374
1.421
1.998
1.756
1.484
1.599
1.191
1-11/2009
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
112
Slovenia: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
80.000
68.719
70.000
59.548
60.000
4.793
4.378
50.000
New cars
registrations
40.000
4.352
1%
6 058
6.058
5.667
10.000
-
1999
2000
2001
2002
3%
0%
5.322
20.000
-18%
4.463
3.652
30 000
30.000
4%
6%
1%
-9%
15%
62002
-4%
3.948
-7%
%
4.505
-4%
4.447
4.393
3.859
5.398
5.486
5.908
4%
6.767
2%
3%
-1%
-10%
7%
59.324
3.688
4.324
4.542
4.515
3.836
4.851
5.880
0%
59.578
-7%
3.443
6%
10%
-1%
7%
4%
4.562
33%
19%
24%
5.012
4.469
14%
4.117
20%
-4%
-10%
6.089
0%
5 413
5.413
-19%
6.234
-6%
5.100
9%
4.946
-7%
5.902
15%
6.568
4%
6.498
0%
26%
5.066
5 477
5.477
20%
5.671
15%
5.632
14%
6.412
5.960
14%
5.453
22%
6.674
-15%
5.659
6%
6.012
12%
6.740
4.974
12%
5.586
-15%
4.776
5%
4.999
6%
5.304
4.476
12%
5.031
9%
5.501
-7%
5.118
-2%
5.037
2003
2004
-8%
2005
2006
71.575
3.298
-28%
4.565
17%
-7%
5.663
4%
4.403
5 859
5.859
5.553
4.620
6.814
6.858
6.524
8.078
6.881
2%
-24%
-16%
-16%
-12%
20%
5.401
9.755
10 000
10.000
8 874
8.874
10%
13%
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
8.000
6.000
4.000
864
3%
836
810
5%
737
705
13%
677
599
15%
800
17%
875
790
760
2.000
-
693
1999
2000
2001
2002
1.051
-1%
747
852
20%
949
4%
788
17%
811
17%
5%
-2%
4%
6.473
-26%
1.172
1.001
877
1%
-1%
34%
1.219
1.013
870
3%
-16%
789
672
-19%
603
-23%
12%
-11%
6%
647
9%
732
13%
853
734
885
-20%
7%
16%
1.175
-34%
21%
1.057
965
691
589
948
14%
1.096
-9%
26%
59%
994
960
40%
965
103%
1 193
1.193
6%
10%
886
11%
692
601
3%
618
29%
798
50%
827
27%
1.048
5%
1.100
14%
2005
2006
2007
5.116
MAR
5.598
FEB
4.915
JAN
4.805
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
DEC
NOV
1.133
SEP
906
-58%
AUG
1.020
-55%
1.057
-54%
1.094
-47%
1.278
1.003
APR
OCT
44%
-7%
MAY
-25%
-8%
45%
-56%
-100%
JUN
-33%
881
-5%
725
780
3%
-10%
-3%
-28%
641
-17%
17%
722
611
10.045
768
669
2004
2%
13%
-7%
2003
9.837
12%
928
698
1%
877
4.999
-19%
29%
12.362
JUL
-23%
-21%
2%
AUG
4.671
5.303
6.214
-27%
SEP
4.907
-21%
2008
12.104
OCT
4.515
4.051
-37%
NOV
54.281
-22%
14.000
12.000
-1,5%
,
3%
17%
2007
DEC
-100%
-58%
-66%
1.116
-62%
1.197
1.259
2008
-62%
-57%
JUL
-7,9%
5.404
519
660
471
407
471
565
459
430
425
455
542
1-11/2009
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
113
Slovakia: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
80.000
1%
17%
70.040
21%
6.393
-8%
4 789
4.789
19%
6.775
24%
5.016
7%
5.066
4.739
31%
7.118
5.433
18%
6.579
5.564
7%
5.903
5.520
37%
4.974
12%
70.000
59.742
60.000
50.000
New cars
registrations
40.000
-16%
5.497
-18%
5.824
-2%
2000
2001
2002
-20%
6.922
4.628
4.768
4.096
-4%
2%
6%
-4%
3%
5.571
7%
4.421
4%
4.880
1%
4.327
-2%
4.780
20%
4.578
4 330
4.330
22%
5.181
4.976
28%
4.623
-16%
5.646
-6%
6.486
8%
5.455
-1%
0%
4.874
-10%
5.244
14%
-12%
5.086
-13%
4.599
14%
3.527
-15%
2003
3.854
2.983
2004
29%
59.084
3.366
3.857
-10%
-2%
6.039
4.745
5.085
4.380
4.501
4.642
5.554
2005
10%
12%
-7%
5%
17%
0%
-9%
12%
-3%
1%
59.700
-12%
8%
-7%
7%
5.098
1999
57.125
-20%
4.383
-
-1%
5.428
5.191
10.000
13%
57.430
4.236
5.081
20.000
9%
6.332
4.169
30 000
30.000
-4%
6.094
5.192
5.265
3.850
3.737
-4%
-7%
24%
-6%
2006
5.293
5.715
4.060
4.896
11%
4.792
37%
3.501
2007
34%
28.219
29%
23%
35%
25.000
20.000
29%
-6%
33%
1%
63%
-2%
13.829
15.000
10.000
5.000
-
13%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2.245
1 607
1.607
1.382
1.008
872
1.184
1.167
1.210
1.116
812
710
516
2003
15.570
18%
33%
3%
4%
13%
20%
44%
35%
70%
2.113
1.630
1 351
1.351
1.185
1.156
1.214
1.217
1.365
1.336
1.167
958
878
2004
38%
35%
54%
51%
23%
19%
23%
9%
42%
21.003
2.723
2.171
2.201
1.638
1.561
1.875
1.840
1.675
1.590
1.438
1.044
1.247
2005
24%
3.354
26%
23%
2.685
7%
51%
2.698
48%
2.481
53%
11%
-6%
58%
15%
112%
49%
50%
28%
1.732
1.756
6%
2.912
64%
1.934
-24%
3.363
16%
2.143
50%
1.565
1.596
2006
12%
26%
7%
70.456
2,8%
DEC
3.643
4.459
NOV
4.783
OCT
6.394
SEP
AUG
9.879
JUL
39%
57%
43%
JUN
10.355
MAY
8.469
APR
43%
6.815
18%
MAR
9.778
5.490
5.313
4.783
36.450
-38%
-39%
-54%
FEB
6.488
3.301
2.907
1-11/2009
1
11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
JAN
DEC
-7%
3.465
-100%
3.717
-29%
2.462
-23%
OCT
3.455
2%
3.475
-45%
SEP
6%
2.807
-41%
-2%
2.516
-56%
2.562
14%
3.058
2.690
9%
3.094
20%
30.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
-34%
2008
33.942
11%
-24%
-5%
5.213
40.000
35.000
-100%
3.394
2.655
NOV
AUG
3,3%
JUL
-44%
16.805
JUN
3.382
-57%
1.895
MAY
-1%
3.140
-55%
3.174
33%
3.418
-58%
2.571
16%
2.875
-49%
24%
2.906
-53%
64%
2.946
-53%
2.485
2.351
1.794
2007
2008
1.921
1.659
1
659
1.116
1.718
1.461
1.399
1.421
1.479
1.361
1.375
1-11/2009
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
114
Spain: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
1.800.000
7%
1.600.000
1.406.246
-21%
1.400.000
122 154
122.154
115.778
1.200.000
112.676
1.000.000
New cars
registrations
800.000
600.000
3%
103.601
-12%
85.637
84.708
5%
146 819
146.819
-1%
1%
145.024
4%
3%
127.261
7%
9%
123.601
-1%
-1%
146.921
1%
17%
1999
106.677
84.269
-6%
82.247
107 007
107.007
111.486
160.737
12%
1.425.573
-2%
99.635
2%
108.175
10%
12%
89.780
113.106
-
96.617
11%
82.910
148.330
200.000
-11%
1.381.256
-5%
123.534
400.000
3%
-2%
150.755
121.616
95.880
8%
-5%
-4%
2000
88.615
162.780
-7%
-9%
0%
136.136
-10%
-16%
-6%
122.310
-8%
148.031
-14%
116.125
91.723
114.515
97.469
111.811
-4%
-9%
5%
2001
4%
10%
7%
-6%
150.414
1.331.877
80.809
79.650
152.938
125.724
127.692
112.838
127.218
105.272
95.941
13%
8%
15%
3%
1.517.286
10%
-6%
7%
-5%
-7%
-6%
2002
1.528.877
1.382.109
3%
130.275
0%
129.770
126.249
13%
124.385
-4%
119.438
109.711
-2%
118.753
-10%
107.314
120.823
6%
98.290
5%
92.528
7%
82.407
4%
6%
1%
161.545
138.243
120.649
120.406
120.753
98.254
90.541
96.768
88.394
167.670
-3%
158.897
2%
161.717
9%
131.355
7%
140.705
4%
125.203
7%
133.398
28%
154.790
-3%
149.559
23%
9%
-1%
120.417
6%
98.857
2004
350.000
300.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
250.000
200.000
150.000
100.000
50.000
-
370.363
-2%
363.508
32 017
32.017
-23%
24.791
34.093
-6%
31.960
30.206
1%
30.547
25.885
-6%
24.255
23.445
36.668
-1%
-12%
-2%
10%
-5%
3%
0%
354.580
27.321
9%
-6%
3%
28.023
3%
28.420
24.206
-7%
32.316
22.437
-8%
31.325
-3%
32.298
-2%
31.594
3%
35.349
-10%
31.759
-11%
35.128
1%
32.199
3%
33.206
-2%
32.433
-5%
30.146
-4%
29.067
-1%
28.651
1%
34.775
8%
29.603
26.198
1999
9%
10%
32.362
28.884
2000
-5%
-6%
-2%
332.930
-6%
30.378
23.189
37.600
405.834
13%
35.667
30.419
28.390
2001
-21%
-16%
-5%
9%
13%
11%
14%
22.448
9%
20.741
11%
32.671
28.268
30.782
28.874
28.082
25.448
26.857
2002
363.747
15%
3%
6%
12%
7%
2%
30.656
32.048
35.730
19%
-3%
16%
12%
25.535
22.551
4%
36.244
16%
32 620
32.620
11%
31.702
30.515
10%
21%
31.496
27.318
27.332
15%
8%
2003
34.773
38.278
34.769
29.642
25.316
37.701
37.689
104.795
38.050
31.418
29.536
2004
3%
2%
104.771
-8%
96.754
6%
102.389
167.450
3%
-3%
0%
166.218
-31%
9%
153.658
0%
153.396
-24%
-3%
129.476
-6%
121.685
2%
16%
174.117
0%
173.716
-28%
8%
126.099
113.410
-4%
3%
2006
35 224
35.224
12%
33.123
-21%
30.891
-23%
41.789
-24%
-14%
3%
353.686
27.884
30.257
-7%
7%
-12%
26.321
23.848
43.474
-22%
20%
42.131
-22%
27%
42.548
-33%
32.945
9%
41.624
-13%
28.641
31.762
2005
-20%
34 065
34.065
22.361
-13%
116.423
363.184
29.808
30.056
32.448
23.154
JUL
86.639
JUN
121.496
0%
98.204
114.960
-11%
11%
77.373
77
373
58.509
116.112
-16%
-39%
-46%
-39%
121.415
-49%
101.621
-42%
108.221
96.706
71.160
67.214
76.501
62.107
59.385
-45%
23.619
-52%
7%
33.902
-39%
0%
34.224
-41%
3%
33.783
-31%
4%
29.903
-10%
-1%
27.031
-4%
28%
28.651
-18%
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
-61%
-51%
AUG
18%
61%
-61%
-34%
SEP
-4,8%
862.019
-37%
36.605
2006
37%
2008
-1%
2%
36.030
27.402
-33%
1%
120.522
OCT
-26%
-100%
26%
123.561
7%
32.170
72.377
63.122
77.686
65.594
58.530
124.702
2007
-24%
15%
33.490
-27%
-2%
1%
34.386
-41%
167.426
169.242
5%
1.161.176
-32%
99.664
5%
42.227
13%
129.384
125.109
10%
9%
NOV
-40%
17%
-37%
33.474
125.206
-6%
44.218
35.188
DEC
-50%
133.002
27%
11%
-50%
11%
-24%
22%
-28%
144.441
6%
465.125
15%
12%
119.555
1.614.835
135.885
2005
500.000
400.000
163.004
-1%
5%
9%
15%
2003
450.000
102.854
1.634.608
-48%
228.395
2007
JUL
-1%
11.550
11.854
15.948
12.781
11 380
11.380
20.698
20.344
23.255
26.824
24.280
25.865
-21%
23.616
-57%
2008
AUG
-100%
-22%
-34%
-41%
-41%
-56%
-62%
-49%
-62%
-10,7%
JUN
118.902
MAY
11.781
11
781
12.640
9.976
7.489
12.116
12.092
10.129
10.223
12.489
9.771
10.196
1-11/2009
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
115
Sweden: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
350.000
300.000
295.249
33.730
250.000
27.846
26.362
200.000
New cars
registrations
23.839
19.196
150.000
-2%
-16%
-12%
2%
15%
20.422
-4%
27 040
27.040
23%
100.000
-15%
28.517
23.455
23.297
24.338
21.987
-5%
26.238
19.376
26.031
-
20.163
-9%
1999
-22%
-16%
-23%
-8%
8%
16.324
3%
246 581
246.581
-3%
21.673
5%
21.244
9%
21.388
17%
18.928
1%
18.421
14.857
23.867
25.544
-1%
17.851
-8%
-10%
29.143
20.313
-9%
-22%
5%
27.643
24%
-24%
32.354
3%
24.769
50.000
8%
290.529
-15%
-19%
-11%
25.081
22.969
2000
-4%
-2%
6%
23.632
16.595
5%
-2%
2001
3%
0%
20.987
22.358
23.249
22.101
18.618
17.410
22.861
24.617
24.311
-3%
17.926
2%
17%
254.589
-9%
7%
-1%
-6%
24.889
21.879
17.585
21%
17%
264.246
-2%
2%
25.423
23.676
-9%
3%
1%
22.652
22.460
17.837
18.168
-8%
16.703
7%
24.560
11%
27.179
4%
-3%
22.936
18.848
20.984
20.258
1%
4%
10%
16.293
261.206
2%
18%
2002
25.606
23.664
25.190
19.261
19.162
-7%
8%
23.935
25.494
-16%
2003
4%
10%
12%
14%
3%
-3%
3%
6%
1%
274.301
25.001
24.617
24.894
26.454
25.438
25.718
25.187
17.681
16.019
3%
2004
19.073
16.547
27.705
-36%
36%
24.816
19%
9%
10%
7%
13%
0%
24.472
22.241
28 320
28.320
4%
2005
4%
23.062
-9%
4%
30.016
-13%
20%
2006
14%
17.616
-2%
22.299
16.902
27.169
5%
26.251
23.540
21.250
-17%
20.599
2007
-14%
-7%
7%
27.478
20.326
-12%
-31%
-14%
27.477
-16%
23.959
1%
17.033
NOV
100%
-100%
17.156
17.721
26.462
9%
253.982
22.777
-7%
8%
DEC
-24%
-23%
-18%
18.568
17.128
-4%
23.806
20.588
5%
25.809
-23%
28.839
9%
28.827
25.560
-3%
-3%
18.895
7%
23.936
8%
-44%
1%
24.251
-17%
30.750
12%
-3%
306.799
29%
23.879
20.361
17.186
282.766
4%
-4%
-2%
25.076
-5%
0%
-8%
4%
3%
OCT
-4,1%
194.040
SEP
AUG
20.126
JUL
21.783
JUN
19.244
15 542
15.542
MAY
14.551
APR
22.393
-34%
18.249
-31%
18.035
-34%
14.603
11.299
2008
MAR
18.215
-23%
FEB
JAN
2 009
2.009
70.000
9%
60.000
12%
12%
50 000
50.000
41.282
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
40.000
5.265
4.186
30.000
3.435
20.000
2.910
2.291
3.583
3.723
3.485
10.000
3.444
3.761
-
2.875
2.324
1999
7%
44.127
-23%
3%
16%
6%
-9%
5.419
-27%
4.863
-8%
-4%
3.638
-20%
13%
3.587
-2%
14%
3.282
2.621
2
621
1%
18%
0%
4%
7%
10%
3.619
4.115
3.438
3.894
3.086
2.565
2000
40.337
4.156
3.528
-2%
11%
1%
15%
3.334
14%
11%
2.880
3.215
2.643
2
643
-11%
-8%
4.020
-4%
3.801
1%
-13%
2%
13%
3.299
3.404
3.160
2.897
2001
39.423
0%
-11%
4.617
3.562
3.819
3.275
2.860
2.649
0%
-11%
-7%
-9%
1%
-2%
1%
4%
-11%
3.558
-2%
4%
3.401
12%
3.436
14%
-10%
-16%
-13%
3.071
2.647
2.528
2002
8%
-6%
8%
39.284
4.093
3.309
3.474
3.301
2.799
2.672
42.432
29%
4%
4.372
-1%
3.922
21%
3.597
3.447
0%
4.187
5%
3.451
4%
3.520
22%
2 786
2.786
3.712
7%
4.543
-3%
3.588
-4%
3.750
3.859
2.850
2.368
2003
5.678
5.276
26%
-8%
-9%
3.365
2.628
2.156
2004
7%
3%
26%
20%
7%
20%
27%
6%
-4%
11%
19%
3.345
3.502
47.573
8%
3.535
2.992
26%
13%
25%
-5%
1%
4.696
15%
4.514
11%
4.494
29%
3.611
19%
3.161
2.736
2005
24%
53.490
6 018
6.018
4.214
4.537
-3%
5.406
5%
4.404
17%
7%
4.671
8%
-3%
14%
9%
3.766
3.386
2006
-24%
54.119
-21%
19%
2.843
4.999
DEC
-7%
5 239
5.239
5%
5.179
5.847
24%
4.712
4.761
58.341
20%
4.932
4.611
3.321
5.110
5.572
4.841
5.312
4.102
4.048
4.420
-34%
NOV
-100%
OCT
SEP
-18%
4.122
-13%
-6%
4.441
-28%
4.641
-24%
4.495
-35%
3.581
3.345
-34%
3.216
4.647
-18%
5.382
-38%
5.730
-39%
3.320
4.587
-14%
3.469
FEB
4.544
-34%
3.953
JAN
3.765
-27%
-3%
1%
-9%
3%
-3%
18%
-14%
11%
-7%
2007
2008
-1,4%
35.768
3.514
2.923
2.216
2
216
3.813
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
3.016
2.747
2.009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
116
Switzerland: New Vehicles yearly and monthly
350.000
316.876
300.000
250.000
200.000
New cars
registrations
150.000
316.519
19.953
-7%
295.065
-8%
19.959
-15%
25.704
4%
20.652
-5%
-19%
25.151
29%
24.720
-17%
21 425
21.425
-2%
19.667
2%
20.375
-2%
24.164
0%
24.186
-2%
21.884
-4%
23.791
-4%
20.898
-7%
21.229
-1%
22.152
0%
24.218
-10%
23.579
-1%
9%
27.827
9%
26.734
-3%
27.289
-16%
-4%
28.910
2%
30.687
-2%
0%
24.572
14%
25.076
34.318
-4%
-16%
30.418
100.000
50.000
-
23.443
33 875
33.875
11%
31.327
20.000
15.000
33 419
33.419
30.985
29.424
-4%
-11%
29.676
-12%
-3%
29.956
-11%
33.425
-6%
31.410
-11%
28.091
-16%
20.075
19%
23.789
-2%
23.201
-6%
21.768
-16%
23.863
-10%
21.502
11%
23.810
-8%
22.015
-11%
1999
28.782
8%
-2%
2.442
-13%
2.575
31%
2.117
2.185
3.207
2.429
1999
32.939
1.748
2 399
2.399
2.234
5%
18%
43%
2001
10%
36.341
-16%
1.477
6%
23%
2.966
3.357
2.800
3.440
-8%
-3%
-5%
4%
3.047
2.717
22%
2.524
21%
2.931
2000
2.755
2.875
3.203
3.432
23%
3.897
13%
21%
11%
2.553
2.565
2.776
36%
2.413
2.444
-1%
2000
14%
2.070
-
-4%
12%
2.919
5.000
6%
-5%
29.888
2 363
2.363
10.000
-6%
-8%
1.618
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
19.841
-5%
33.875
35.000
25.000
21.730
36%
-2%
269.385
4%
2%
264.941
6%
18%
-11%
-12%
-14%
-28%
1.746
2.264
2.421
2.203
2.066
-17%
-17%
-14%
-21%
12%
2.827
-19%
16%
3.391
-24%
2.672
2.851
2.971
3.157
22.736
20.582
18.575
25.331
28 320
28.320
26.014
-4%
3%
-9%
-1%
2%
1%
21.080
19.739
19.152
23.101
28.132
26.618
27.037
10%
18.286
19.677
-5%
-4%
1%
-6%
2003
13%
20.814
2%
22.017
15%
20.838
-9%
21.179
6%
21.522
-5%
21.274
18.475
22.009
27 055
27.055
-6%
1%
6%
18.434
-12%
-9%
9%
8%
26.617
-13%
-7%
1.591
1.972
-4%
2.247
-4%
2.125
-12%
-15%
-22%
-11%
-12%
2.281
-10%
2.585
-15%
1.983
2.346
2.410
42%
15%
-1%
7%
24%
28.846
18.008
3%
2005
3%
-3%
2.255
12%
2.266
-1%
2.232
2.277
2.465
-1%
2.326
13%
2 725
2.725
2.310
11%
2.562
2.822
-4%
2.720
2.558
2.048
2.205
15%
-2%
-6%
2003
4%
2.941
2004
2.073
2004
30.092
2.534
19%
2.593
-1%
2.444
15%
2.685
1%
2 752
2.752
9%
-8%
74%
12%
2.216
2.622
2.973
2.693
-3%
1.935
19%
2.457
2005
5%
-2%
17.458
18.589
-9%
6%
33.109
-8%
4%
19%
-3%
2.830
2.634
12%
2.354
10%
17.977
JUN
-5%
29.626
-10%
0%
26.982
-15%
3.025
29.163
23.631
12%
-19%
18%
21.642
-18%
3.338
7%
3.317
9%
2.723
18%
2.810
6%
0%
2006
Note: on the 25th of January 2010
registrations for December 2009
were not available
-100%
-6%
2.842
-9%
3 031
3.031
-18%
18%
2.587
2.749
-7%
2.480
-11%
2.554
3.257
18%
4%
2%
3.463
3.385
-11%
30.297
2.426
2.908
-15%
3.941
-20%
-5%
3.141
-1%
31%
3.221
-22%
22%
2.908
-5%
2008
0,5%
-16%
33%
2007
JAN
17.816
1-11/2009
/
2.731
2.723
FEB
23.647
37.392
4%
MAR
24.939
9%
0%
APR
23.002
17%
3.306
2.391
MAY
26.808
17.610
2.962
2.451
24.027
-19%
2.860
8%
0%
21.825
2.641
2.768
-14%
16%
-5%
3.092
2.302
-8%
2008
34.407
3.015
2.388
26.131
2007
15%
3.097
18%
18.734
18.292
2.333
13%
JUL
5%
-9%
7%
2.479
AUG
21.136
18%
3.810
-8%
22.890
-6%
24.866
27.025
OCT
19.118
21.211
31 121
31.121
NOV
SEP
-10%
20.762
242 140
242.140
-3%
24.365
21.814
-39%
2.590
10%
5%
24.329
26.100
4%
20.325
DEC
-2,7%
22.288
24.750
-2%
23.935
-16%
-100%
-6%
-3%
7%
288.557
0%
2%
2006
2.188
14%
2%
27.575
15%
26.950
3%
16.945
2004
29 778
29.778
8%
24.843
20%
24.359
28.243
-2%
21.662
-14%
-4%
18.486
10%
24.915
-8%
19.646
-18%
24.815
17.608
-2%
11%
4%
26.002
23.582
2.907
2002
284.688
0%
22.631
10%
30.124
6%
269.452
6%
-17%
3.674
2001
4%
26.641
2002
-24%
3.692
0%
270.309
22.683
26.696
-1%
40.000
30 000
30.000
316.641
0%
20.648
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
2.920
MAY
2.881
APR
3.161
MAR
3.095
FEB
2.516
JAN
2.769
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
117
United Kingdom : New Vehicles yearly and monthly
3.000.000
2.563.631
2.458.769
2.500.000
1%
2.197.615
2.000.000
New cars
registrations
84.582
143.323
13%
149.614
3%
386.999
1.500.000
196.442
175.898
183.047
500.000
370.060
84.040
-
-9%
-2%
74.444
167.324
1.000.000
27%
181.842
-7%
-2%
11%
2.221.670
107.803
162.572
153.541
353.494
72.708
155.108
193.360
10%
194.113
-8%
168.200
9%
-12%
2%
1999
401.996
73.735
185.040
13%
184.278
185.325
21%
25%
155.452
0%
144.353
-5%
14%
171 674
171.674
8%
169 059
169.059
-7%
172 094
172.094
9%
6%
12%
11%
2%
7%
1%
7%
2%
2000
-7%
77.368
173.038
215 325
215.325
198.620
179.996
408.024
79.151
187.908
184.145
432.661
-2%
13%
13%
-4%
5%
18%
9%
2001
-1%
181.589
439.365
2%
87.245
195.637
207.330
208.669
208.976
16%
4%
-2%
2%
1%
93.515
205.476
-6%
196.762
240.174
16%
-5%
-5%
0%
-4%
-3%
194.312
-6%
-9%
2002
430.763
187.632
239.077
194.480
187.003
88.096
186.769
7%
4%
6%
2003
-2%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-4%
466.954
91.460
197.591
156.866
158.474
152.497
-11%
-3%
-4%
438.075
-8%
84.996
200.059
3%
170.866
-2%
89.338
-7%
423.727
2%
DEC
2.439.717
1%
-1%
443.265
2.567.269
144.576
126.471
17%
2.579.050
4%
-5%
-16%
-8%
2004
-4%
2.344.864
3%
2.404.007
-11%
-15%
133.810
3%
137 960
137.960
-21%
-2%
155.315
2%
1%
417.052
83.066
175.277
227.623
187.900
179.457
442.939
77.092
181.474
-1%
-6%
-4%
-4%
153.851
413.991
77.961
168.015
219 497
219.497
1%
190.002
-9%
163.216
-2%
435.847
-1%
-13%
2005
158.735
166.797
8%
1%
0%
5%
2%
-2%
4%
3%
-23%
419.290
77.649
176.277
222 863
222.863
185.797
170.163
449.287
-3%
75.996
157.363
5%
2006
-37%
-21%
-19%
-13%
2 131 795
2.131.795
108.691
100.333
128.352
330.295
32%
11%
-6%
209 190
209.190
-16%
-4%
179.272
-25%
3%
1%
451.642
-2%
2007
69.610
162.097
2%
6%
13%
400.000
350.000
LCV/MB
+
CV/B
registrations
300.000
250.000
327 314
327.314
-6%
20.453
29.849
27.453
43.448
200.000
150.000
15.993
25.568
28.702
26.210
100.000
50.000
-
3%
27.624
43.713
14.803
23.498
1999
-2%
1%
4%
5%
5%
7%
337.033
19.303
29.231
27.864
45.278
16.819
26.894
30.601
4%
27.358
-7%
25.745
7%
13%
4%
46.714
16.752
24.474
2000
4%
21%
4%
1%
351.840
7%
23.445
30.526
28.232
-4%
1%
4%
8%
-2%
2%
-3%
5%
13%
358.101
15%
28.879
8%
34.684
32.092
8%
34.448
31.840
13%
52.010
46.027
17%
18.767
11%
31.609
28.496
24%
36.127
25.031
-12%
16%
7%
2%
52.369
18.020
25.760
30 789
30.789
28.430
27.694
45.777
17.086
23.712
2001
4%
11%
-5%
6%
3%
-7%
18%
7%
403.623
29 158
29.158
30.167
28.486
4%
12%
25%
42.608
20.164
25.265
2002
-6%
13%
22.020
31.382
31.961
8%
9%
9%
8%
-7%
2%
428.815
31.144
37.951
37.537
56.007
-5%
-9%
-11%
0%
5%
20.548
32.374
-4%
426.615
29.598
34.642
33.331
56.195
21.521
31.018
0%
426.639
0%
-10%
26.637
9%
0%
-4%
7%
1%
-6%
34.778
31.853
60.150
21.708
29.188
11%
18%
16%
39.283
1%
39.697
-12%
34.940
8%
33 528
33.528
2%
34 336
34.336
-2%
2%
33.651
1%
53.074
32.612
59.986
-1%
8%
6%
18.876
11%
20.024
-3%
2003
27.821
2004
4%
36.292
59.308
21.668
29.009
2005
15%
7%
41.907
63.302
37.584
-22%
23.453
21.335
-19%
33.813
-12%
37.879
0%
33.876
32.540
18.658
2006
23.476
-39%
-17%
60.059
-5%
391.424
57.161
-5%
20.306
28.219
-8%
-19%
-29%
-8%
-6%
-3%
38.485
-2%
7%
2%
28.956
26.935
2%
7%
7%
18%
12%
2007
26.514
APR
176.264
MAR
-31%
54.359
112.087
1 11/2009
1-11/2009
FEB
JAN
Note: on the
25th of
January 2010
registrations
for December
2009 were not
available
-41%
-20%
-38%
-38%
34.487
-41%
34.854
-48%
-44%
-42%
21.941
-50%
30.234
-43%
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
-100%
-15%
2008
MAY
67.006
157.149
313.912
17.376
64.124
JUN
367.929
-22%
-32%
37.751
JUL
134.858
47.342
29.872
AUG
168.942
133.475
427.281
-5%
9%
13%
28.553
-1%
SEP
158.082
-30%
2008
OCT
1.844.063
-24%
500.000
450.000
-1,7%
6%
-13%
-5%
73.586
165.603
58%
63.225
153.420
175.668
NOV
-100%
-3,4%
232.114
18.836
17.988
40.212
10.806
10
806
18.665
22.372
17.859
19.656
37.431
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
10.928
17.361
1-11/2009
99-09 CAGR
Source: ACEA
118
• Appendix:
119
Daimler Group 2007-2008 Income Statement
and Balance Sheet
(In Euro)
Daimler
2007
Daimler
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
99.426.000.000 96.653.000.000
(64.950.000.000) (67.350.000.000)
Personnel costs
(11.400.000.000) (10.545.000.000)
(7.181.000.000)
(7.179.000.000)
TOTAL OPERATING COSTS
(83.531.000.000) (85.074.000.000)
EBITDA
15.895.000.000 11.579.000.000
Amortization, depreciation and write-downs
(8.010.000.000)
(5.623.000.000)
EBIT
7.885.000.000
5.956.000.000
Dividends
1.053.000.000
(998.000.000)
Other financial income
471.000.000
65.000.000
p
and other financial charges
g
((228.000.000))
((2.228.000.000))
Interest expense
Foreign exchange gains/(losses)
0
0
FINANCIAL INCOME AND EXPENSE
1.296.000.000
(3.161.000.000)
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
ADJUSTMENTS TO FINANCIAL ASSETS
0
0
Gains on disposals and other
0
0
Losses on disposals and other
(870.000.000)
(290.000.000)
EXTRAORDINARY INCOME AND EXPENSE (870.000.000)
(290.000.000)
PRE-TAX INCOME
8.311.000.000
2.505.000.000
Tax
(4.326.000.000)
(1.091.000.000)
TOTAL CONSOLIDATED NET INCOME
3.985.000.000
1.414.000.000
Net income attributable to minority interest
(6.000.000)
(66.000.000)
NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO GROUP
3.979.000.000
1.348.000.000
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
14.086.000.000
16.805.000.000
Receivables
22.641.000.000
24.383.000.000
Short-term investments
8.762.000.000
7.289.000.000
Liquid funds
15.631.000.000
6.912.000.000
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS
61.120.000.000 55.389.000.000
Total intangible fixed assets
5.202.000.000
6.037.000.000
Total tangible fixed assets
34.768.000.000
35.365.000.000
Total financial assets
32.122.000.000
32.600.000.000
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
72.092.000.000 74.002.000.000
ACCRUED INCOME AND DEFERRED EXPENSES
1.882.000.000
2.828.000.000
UNPAID SHARE CAPITAL DUE FROM SHAREHOLDERS
0
0
TOTAL ASSETS
135.094.000.000 132.219.000.000
LIABILITIES AND OWNER'S EQUITY
Due to suppliers within 12 months
Due to suppliers beyond 12 months
Short term Interest bearing debts
Long term Interest bearing debts
Other debts within 12 months
Other debts beyond 12 months
TOTAL DEBTS
PROVISIONS FOR RISKS AND CHARGES
RESERVE FOR EMPLOYEE TERMINATION
ACCRUED EXPENSES AND DEFERRED INCOME
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS
SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
6.939.000.000
0
31.468.000.000
33.614.000.000
1.298.000.000
114.000.000
73.433.000.000
19 562 000 000
19.562.000.000
0
3.869.000.000
2.766.000.000
11.296.000.000
22.656.000.000
1512000000
38.230.000.000
135 094 000 000
135.094.000.000
6.478.000.000
0
35.804.000.000
33.151.000.000
1.057.000.000
77.000.000
76.567.000.000
18 236 000 000
18.236.000.000
0
4.692.000.000
2.768.000.000
9.089.000.000
19.359.000.000
1508000000
32.724.000.000
132 219 000 000
132.219.000.000
Source: Daimler, ECG analysis
120
Daimler Group 2007-2008 Financial Ratios
analysis and Capital Structure breakdown
Financial Ratios Analysis
Daimler
RATIOS CALCULATION METHODOLOGIES
Accounts Receivable/Sales
A
Accounts
t Receivable/Sales*360
R
i bl /S l *360
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
(Sales-Cost of Goods Sold)/Sales
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Total Assets
EBIT/Total fixed assets
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
EBITDA / (Taxes + Interest + Current Portion of LongTermDebt)
EFFICIENCY RATIOS IN ASSET MANAGEMENT
Accounts Receivable Turnover
A
Average
Collection
C ll ti
P
Period
i d iin d
days
Total Asset Turnover
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
PROFITABILITY RATIOS
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Operating Profit Margin
Net Profit Margin
Return on Total Assets (ROA)
Return on Investments (ROI)
Return on Equity (ROE)
Cashflow coverage of taxes,
taxes interests & CPLTD
2007
2008
0,23
82
1,36
0,25
91
1,37
54,4%
48,2%
192,1%
88,2%
57,9%
52,2%
234,0%
101,5%
34,7%
16,0%
16
0%
7,9%
4,0%
2,9%
10,9%
10,4%
30,3%
12,0%
12
0%
6,2%
1,4%
1,0%
8,0%
4,1%
3,11
34,58
0 44
0,44
5,36
2,67
0 30
0,30
Capital Structure breakdown
100,0%
28 3%
28,3%
75,0%
2,9%
14,5%
50,0%
0,1%
24,9%
24,7%
3,5%
13,8%
0,1%
25 1%
25,1%
Total shareholders’ equity
Accrued expenses and deferred income
Provisions for risks and charges
Long term interest bearing debts
Short term interest bearing debts
25,0%
0,0%
23,3%
27,1%
1,0%
1
0%
5,1%
0 8%
0,8%
4,9%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
121
Daimler Group 2007-2008 Common Size
Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
100,0%
Daimler
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
65,3% 69,7%
Personnel costs
11,5% 10,9%
7,2%
7,4%
Total operating costs
84,0% 88,0%
EBITDA
16%
12%
EBIT
7,9%
6,2%
Financial income
7 9%
7,9%
6 2%
6,2%
Interest expense and other financial charges 1,1%
1,0%
Pre-tax income
0,2%
2,3%
Total consolidated net income
0,0%
0,0%
Net income attributable to group
1,3%
3,3%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total current assets
Total fixed assets
Accrued income and deferred expenses
Total assets
10,4%
16,8%
16
8%
6,5%
11,6%
45,2%
3,9%
25,7%
23,8%
53,4%
1,4%
100,0%
12,7%
18,4%
18
4%
5,5%
5,2%
41,9%
4,6%
26,7%
24,7%
56,0%
2,1%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
Interest bearing debts
Other debts
Total debts
Reserve for employee termination
Total shareholders' equity
Total shareholders' equity and liabilities
5,1%
48,2%
1,0%
54,4%
14,5%
0,0%
2,9%
28,3%
100,0%
4,9%
52,2%
0,9%
57,9%
13,8%
0,0%
3,5%
24,7%
100,0%
7,9%
8,1%
7,2%
11,5%
75 0%
75,0%
6,2%
5,8%
7,4%
10 9%
10,9%
EBIT
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
65,3%
69,7%
2007
2008
Personnel costs
Breakdown of Current and non Current Assets
100,0%
75,0%
54,1%
57,2%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
Total Current Assets
45,9%
42,8%
0,0%
2007
2008
Breakdown of Liability and Owners’ Equity
100,0%
28,3%
24,7%
75,0%
Total Shareholders’ Equity
50,0%
71,7%
75,3%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
,
25,0%
0,0%
122
BMW Group 2007-2008 Income Statement and
Balance Sheet
(In Euro)
BMW
2007
BMW
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
56.811.000.000 54.625.000.000
C t off services
Cost
i
sold
ld
(30 226 000 000) (29.433.000.000)
(30.226.000.000)
(29 433 000 000)
Personnel costs
(7.511.000.000)
(7.236.000.000)
(8.704.000.000)
(9.381.000.000)
(46.441.000.000) (46.050.000.000)
EBITDA
10.370.000.000
8.575.000.000
(6.158.000.000)
(7.654.000.000)
EBIT
4.212.000.000
921.000.000
Dividends
0
0
656 000 000
656.000.000
711 000 000
711.000.000
Interest expense and other financial charges
(995.000.000)
(1.281.000.000)
0
0
(339.000.000)
(570.000.000)
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
EXTRAORDINARY INCOME AND EXPENSE
0
0
PRE-TAX INCOME
3.873.000.000
351.000.000
Tax
(739.000.000)
(21.000.000)
3.134.000.000
330.000.000
(8.000.000)
(6.000.000)
3.126.000.000
324.000.000
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Totall intangible
bl ffixed
d assets
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
7.349.000.000
7.290.000.000
19.014.000.000 20.620.000.000
3.622.000.000
3.306.000.000
2.393.000.000
7.454.000.000
32.378.000.000 38.670.000.000
5.670.000.000
6 0 000 000
5.641.000.000
6
000 000
11.523.000.000 11.952.000.000
38.643.000.000 43.846.000.000
55.836.000.000 61.439.000.000
783.000.000
977.000.000
0
0
88.997.000.000 101.086.000.000
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
O
S
SHAREHOLDERS’
O
S EQUITY
QU
AND LIABILITIES
S
TOTAL
3.551.000.000
2.562.000.000
0
0
22.493.000.000 29.887.000.000
21.428.000.000 30.497.000.000
4.914.000.000
4.713.000.000
2.024.000.000
2.201.000.000
54.410.000.000 69.860.000.000
10 129 000 000 8.196.000.000
10.129.000.000
8 196 000 000
0
0
2.714.000.000 2.757.000.000
654.000.000
654.000.000
1.911.000.000
1.911.000.000
19.168.000.000 17.700.000.000
11000000
8000000
21.744.000.000 20.273.000.000
88.997.000.000
88
99 000 000 101.086.000.000
0 086 000 000
Source: BMW, ECG analysis
123
BMW Group 2007-2008 Financial Ratios
BMW
Accounts Receivable/Sales*360
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
Average Collection Period in days
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Ma gin
Net Profit Margin
Cashflow coverage of taxes
taxes, interests & CPLTD
2007
2008
0,33
120
1,57
0,38
136
1,85
61,1%
49,4%
250,2%
107,9%
69,1%
59,7%
344,6%
161,3%
46,8%
18 3%
18,3%
7,4%
5,5%
3,5%
7,5%
14,4%
46,1%
15,7%
15
7%
1,7%
0,6%
0,3%
1,5%
1,6%
4,00
4,23
0 43
0,43
6,17
0,72
0,27
0
27
100,0%
75,0%
24,4%
20,1%
3,0%
2,7%
8,1%
2,2%
11,4%
2,3%
50,0%
24,1%
,
30,2%
25,0%
25,3%
29,6%
5,5%
5
5%
4,0%
4,7%
4
7%
2,5%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
0,0%
124
BMW Group 2007-2008 Common Size
Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
BMW
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
53,2% 53,9%
Personnel costs
13,2% 13,2%
15,3% 17,2%
81,7% 84,3%
EBITDA
18%
16%
EBIT
7,4%
1,7%
Financial income
7,4%
1,7%
0,0%
Pre-tax income
1,8%
2,3%
0,0%
0,0%
0,6%
1,0%
100,0%
7,4%
10,8%
1,7%
14,0%
75 0%
75,0%
15 3%
15,3%
17 2%
17,2%
13,2%
13,2%
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
EBIT
Personnel costs
53,2%
53,9%
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
8,3%
21,4%
4,1%
2,7%
36,4%
6,4%
12,9%
43,4%
62,7%
0,9%
100,0%
7,2%
20,4%
3,3%
7,4%
38,3%
5,6%
11,8%
43,4%
60,8%
1,0%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
Other debts
Total debts
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
4,0%
49,4%
7,8%
61,1%
11,4%
0,0%
3 0%
3,0%
24,4%
100,0%
2,5%
59,7%
6,8%
69,1%
8,1%
0,0%
2 7%
2,7%
20,1%
100,0%
100,0%
75,0%
63,3%
61,4%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
36,7%
38,6%
0,0%
2007
2008
100,0%
24,4%
20,1%
75,0%
50,0%
75,6%
79,9%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
25,0%
5,0%
0,0%
125
Fiat Group 2007-2008 Income Statement and
Balance Sheet
(In Euro)
Fiat
2007
Fiat
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
58.529.000.000 59.380.000.000
(38.640.000.000) (38.185.000.000)
Personnel costs
(6.959.000.000)
(7.466.000.000)
(6.959.000.000)
(7.466.000.000)
(52.558.000.000) (53.117.000.000)
EBITDA
5.971.000.000
6.263.000.000
(2.738.000.000)
(2.901.000.000)
EBIT
3.233.000.000
3.362.000.000
Dividends
0
0
185.000.000
162.000.000
p
g
((564.000.000))
((947.000.000))
Interest expense
0
0
(379.000.000)
(785.000.000)
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
190.000.000
20.000.000
(271.000.000)
(410.000.000)
(81.000.000)
(390.000.000)
PRE-TAX INCOME
2.773.000.000
2.187.000.000
Tax
(719.000.000)
(466.000.000)
2.054.000.000
1.721.000.000
0
0
2.054.000.000
1.721.000.000
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
9.990.000.000 11.346.000.000
20.096.000.000 20.896.000.000
1.099.000.000
1.004.000.000
6.639.000.000
3.683.000.000
37.824.000.000 36.929.000.000
6.523.000.000
7.048.000.000
11.256.000.000 12.607.000.000
2.641.000.000
2.802.000.000
20.420.000.000 22.457.000.000
1.892.000.000 2.386.000.000
0
0
60.136.000.000 61.772.000.000
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS
SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
14.725.000.000 13.258.000.000
0
0
17.986.000.000 21.381.000.000
188.000.000
1.202.000.000
7.203.000.000
6.516.000.000
0
0
40.102.000.000 42.357.000.000
8 562 000 000 8.144.000.000
8.562.000.000
8 144 000 000
0
0
193.000.000
170.000.000
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
11.279.000.000 11.101.000.000
60 136 000 000 61.772.000.000
60.136.000.000
61 772 000 000
Source: Fiat, ECG analysis
126
Fiat Group 2007-2008 Financial Ratios analysis
and Capital Structure breakdown
Fiat
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/S l
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
M
i
Net Profit Margin
2007
2008
0,34
124
1,03
0,35
127
1,04
66,7%
30,2%
355,5%
1,7%
68,6%
36,6%
381,6%
10,8%
34,0%
10 2%
10,2%
5,5%
3,5%
3,4%
15,8%
18,2%
35,7%
10,5%
10
5%
5,7%
2,9%
2,8%
15,0%
15,5%
1,93
5,73
0 31
0,31
3,02
3,55
0 27
0,27
100,0%
18,8%
75,0%
50,0%
18,0%
0,3%
0 3%
0,3%
14,2%
0,0%
0,3%
13,2%
0,0%
1,9%
29,9%
34,6%
12,0%
25,0%
0,0%
10,5%
24,5%
,
21 5%
21,5%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
127
Fiat Group 2007-2008 Common Size
Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
100,0%
Fiat
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
66,0% 64,3%
Personnel costs
11,9% 12,6%
11,9% 12,6%
89,8% 89,5%
EBITDA
10%
11%
EBIT
5,5%
5,7%
Financial income
5,5%
5,7%
0,0%
Pre-tax income
1,0%
1,6%
0,0%
0,0%
0,6%
1,3%
75 0%
75,0%
5,5%
4,7%
11,9%
5,7%
4,9%
12,6%
11,9%
12,6%
-
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
EBIT
Personnel costs
66,0%
64,3%
2007
2008
100,0%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
16,6%
33,4%
1,8%
11,0%
62,9%
10,8%
18,7%
4,4%
34,0%
3,1%
100,0%
18,4%
33,8%
1,6%
6,0%
59,8%
11,4%
20,4%
4,5%
36,4%
3,9%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
Other debts
Total debts
P
Provisions
i i
for
f
risks
i k and
d charges
h
24,5%
30,2%
12,0%
66,7%
14 2%
14,2%
0,0%
0,3%
18,8%
100,0%
21,5%
36,6%
10,5%
68,6%
13 2%
13,2%
0,0%
0,3%
18,0%
100,0%
75,0%
35 1%
35,1%
37,8%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
64,9%
62,2%
2007
2008
100,0%
,
18,8%
18,0%
75,0%
50,0%
81,2%
82,0%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
25 0%
25,0%
0,0%
128
Volkswagen Group 2007-2008 Income
Statement and Balance Sheet
(In Euro)
VW
2007
VW
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
108.897.000.000 113.808.000.000
(72.340.000.000) (75.954.000.000)
Personnel costs
(14 549 000 000) (15.784.000.000)
(14.549.000.000)
(15 784 000 000)
(6.619.000.000)
(7.299.000.000)
(93.508.000.000) (99.037.000.000)
EBITDA
15.389.000.000 14.771.000.000
(9.238.000.000)
(8.438.000.000)
EBIT
6.151.000.000
6.333.000.000
Dividends
0
0
734.000.000
910.000.000
Interest expense
p
g
((342.000.000))
((635.000.000))
0
0
392.000.000
275.000.000
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PRE-TAX INCOME
6.543.000.000
6.608.000.000
Tax
(2.421.000.000)
(1.920.000.000)
4.122.000.000
4.688.000.000
2.000.000
(65.000.000)
4.120.000.000
4.753.000.000
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
14.031.000.000
17.816.000.000
Receivables
37.758.000.000
44.096.000.000
6.615.000.000
4.777.000.000
Liquid funds
10.112.000.000
9.474.000.000
68.516.000.000 76.163.000.000
Totall intangible
bl ffixed
d assets
6 830 000 000
6.830.000.000
12.291.000.000
2 29 000 000
19.490.000.000
23.271.000.000
47.412.000.000
52.850.000.000
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
73.732.000.000 88.412.000.000
3.109.000.000
3.344.000.000
0
0
TOTAL ASSETS
145.357.000.000 167.919.000.000
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
O
S
SHAREHOLDERS’
O
S EQUITY
QU
AND LIABILITIES
S
TOTAL
9.099.000.000
0
28.677.000.000
29.315.000.000
7.182.000.000
10.521.000.000
84.794.000.000
25 988 000 000
25.988.000.000
0
2.637.000.000
1.015.000.000
5.142.000.000
25.718.000.000
63000000
31.938.000.000
145.357.000.000
5 35 000 000
9.676.000.000
0
36.123.000.000
33.257.000.000
9.370.000.000
12.308.000.000
100.734.000.000
26 143 000 000
26.143.000.000
0
3.654.000.000
1.024.000.000
5.351.000.000
28.636.000.000
2377000000
37.388.000.000
167.919.000.000
6 9 9 000 000
Source: Volkswagen, ECG analysis
129
Volkswagen Group 2007-2008 Financial Ratios
VW
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
2007
2008
0,35
125
1,33
0,39
139
1,48
58,3%
39,9%
265,5%
124,7%
60,0%
41,3%
269,4%
121,9%
33,6%
14,1%
14
1%
5,6%
3,8%
2,8%
8,3%
12,9%
33,3%
13,0%
13
0%
5,6%
4,2%
2,8%
7,2%
12,7%
3,11
17,99
0 49
0,49
4,06
9,97
0,38
0
38
100,0%
75,0%
22,0%
22,3%
1,8%
2,2%
17,9%
15,6%
7,2%
7,3%
20,2%
19,8%
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
19,7%
21,5%
4,9%
4
9%
6,3%
5,6%
5
6%
5,8%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
130
Volkswagen Group 2007-2008 Common Size
Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
100,0%
VW
2007
Total revenues
100%
66,4%
Personnel costs
13,4%
6,1%
85,9%
EBITDA
14%
EBIT
5,6%
Financial income
5,6%
Pre-tax income
0,3%
0,0%
0,4%
2008
100%
66,7%
13,9%
6,4%
87,0%
13%
5,6%
5,6%
0,0%
0,6%
0,0%
0,2%
75 0%
75,0%
5,6%
8,5%
6,1%
13 4%
13,4%
5,6%
7,4%
6,4%
13 9%
13,9%
0,0%
50,0%
25,0%
EBIT
66,4%
66,7%
2007
2008
Personnel costs
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
9,7%
26,0%
4,6%
7,0%
47,1%
4,7%
13,4%
32,6%
50,7%
2,1%
100,0%
10,6%
26,3%
2,8%
5,6%
45,4%
7,3%
13,9%
31,5%
52,7%
2,0%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
Other debts
Total debts
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
6,3%
39,9%
12,2%
58,3%
17,9%
0,0%
1 8%
1,8%
22,0%
100,0%
5,8%
41,3%
12,9%
60,0%
15,6%
0,0%
2 2%
2,2%
22,3%
100,0%
100,0%
75,0%
51,8%
53,7%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
48,2%
46,3%
2007
2008
100,0%
22,0%
22,3%
75,0%
50,0%
78,0%
77,7%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
25,0%
0,0%
131
Renault Group 2007-2008 Income Statement
and Balance Sheet
(In Euro)
Renault
2007
Split between cost of service
sold and personnel cost was
not officially stated:
1)Personnel cost has been
estimated using the same
cost per employee of PSA
2)The residual has been
allocated to the other item
Renault
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
40.682.000.000 37.791.000.000
(23.022.816.113) (21.542.859.765)
Personnel costs
(5.636.183.887)
(5.502.140.235)
(7.920.000.000)
(7.920.000.000)
(36.579.000.000) (34.965.000.000)
EBITDA
4.103.000.000
2.826.000.000
(2.865.000.000)
(2.943.000.000)
EBIT
1.238.000.000
(117.000.000)
Dividends
1.675.000.000
437.000.000
451.000.000
814.000.000
p
g
((375.000.000))
((373.000.000))
Interest expense
0
0
1.751.000.000
878.000.000
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PRE-TAX INCOME
2.989.000.000
761.000.000
Tax
(255.000.000)
(162.000.000)
2.734.000.000
599.000.000
(65.000.000)
(28.000.000)
2.669.000.000
571.000.000
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Totall intangible
bl ffixed
d assets
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
5.932.000.000
5.266.000.000
24.888.000.000 22.918.000.000
1.239.000.000
1.036.000.000
4.721.000.000
2.058.000.000
36.780.000.000 31.278.000.000
4.056.000.000
0 6 000 000
4.313.000.000
3 3 000 000
13.559.000.000 13.238.000.000
13.583.000.000 14.750.000.000
31.198.000.000 32.301.000.000
220.000.000
252.000.000
0
0
68.198.000.000 63.831.000.000
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
O
S
SHAREHOLDERS’
O
S EQUITY
QU
AND LIABILITIES
S
TOTAL
29.420.000.000 24.370.000.000
0
0
1.517.000.000
5.219.000.000
5.413.000.000
5.773.000.000
6.419.000.000
5.566.000.000
523.000.000
548.000.000
43.292.000.000 41.476.000.000
2 719 000 000 2.807.000.000
2.719.000.000
2 807 000 000
0
0
118.000.000
132.000.000
1.086.000.000
1.086.000.000
17.822.000.000 17.302.000.000
2.669.000.000
571.000.000
492000000
457000000
22.069.000.000 19.416.000.000
68.198.000.000
68
98 000 000 63
63.831.000.000
83 000 000
Source: Renault, ECG analysis
132
Renault Group 2007-2008 Financial Ratios
Renault
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
Cashflow coverage of taxes, interests & CPLTD
2007
2008
0,61
220
1,68
0,61
218
1,69
63,5%
10,2%
196,2%
26,9%
65,0%
17,2%
213,6%
32,6%
43,4%
10,1%
3,0%
6,6%
3,9%
4,0%
12,1%
43,0%
7,5%
-0,3%
1,5%
0,9%
-0,4%
2,9%
0,54
3,30
1,91
3,16
-0,31
0,49
100,0%
75,0%
50,0%
32 4%
32,4%
30,4%
0,2%
4,0%
0,8%
7,9%
2,2%
9,4%
,
0,2%
4,4%
0,9%
9,0%
8,2%
8,7%
25,0%
43,1%
38,2%
Due to suppliers
0,0%
2007
2008
133
Renault Group 2007-2008 Common Size
Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
Renault
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
56,6% 57,0%
Personnel costs
13,9% 14,6%
19,5% 21,0%
89,9% 92,5%
EBITDA
10%
7%
EBIT
3,0%
0,3%
Financial income
3,0%
0,3%
1,2%
Pre-tax income
0,9%
1,0%
0,0%
0,0%
4,3%
2,3%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
100,0%
75 0%
75,0%
3,0%
7,0%
0,3%
7,8%
19,5%
,
21,0%
EBIT
13,9%
14,6%
50,0%
Personnel costs
25,0%
0,0%
56,6%
57,0%
2007
2008
8,7%
36,5%
1,8%
6,9%
53,9%
5,9%
19,9%
19,9%
45,7%
0,3%
100,0%
8,2%
35,9%
1,6%
3,2%
49,0%
6,8%
20,7%
23,1%
50,6%
0,4%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
43,1% 38,2%
10,2% 17,2%
Other debts
10,2%
9,6%
Total debts
63,5% 65,0%
4,0%
4,4%
0,0%
0,0%
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
0 2%
0,2%
0 2%
0,2%
32,4% 30,4%
Total shareholders' equity and liabilities 100,0% 100,0%
100,0%
75,0%
45,9%
50,8%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
54,1%
49,2%
2007
2008
100,0%
75,0%
32,4%
30,4%
50,0%
,
25,0%
0,0%
67,6%
69,6%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
134
PSA Peugeot Citroën Group 2007-2008
Income Statement and Balance Sheet
(In Euro)
PSA
2007
PSA
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
60.428.000.000 54.906.000.000
(36.987.000.000) (33.680.000.000)
Personnel costs
(8.999.000.000)
(8.598.000.000)
(10.038.000.000)
(9.803.000.000)
(56.024.000.000) (52.081.000.000)
EBITDA
4.404.000.000
2.825.000.000
(3.284.000.000)
(3.192.000.000)
EBIT
1.120.000.000
(367.000.000)
Dividends
48.000.000
57.000.000
283.000.000
247.000.000
p
g
((323.000.000))
((533.000.000))
Interest expense
0
0
8.000.000
(229.000.000)
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PRE-TAX INCOME
1.128.000.000
(596.000.000)
Tax
(302.000.000)
96.000.000
826.000.000
(500.000.000)
0
(157.000.000)
826.000.000
(657.000.000)
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Totall intangible
bl ffixed
d assets
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
6.913.000.000
7.757.000.000
7.024.000.000
6.428.000.000
23.233.000.000 22.359.000.000
9.020.000.000
3.230.000.000
46.190.000.000 39.774.000.000
5.542.000.000
2 000 000
5.469.000.000
69 000 000
14.696.000.000 14.105.000.000
2.547.000.000
2.372.000.000
22.785.000.000 21.946.000.000
0
0
0
0
68.975.000.000 61.720.000.000
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
O
S
SHAREHOLDERS’
O
S EQUITY
QU
AND LIABILITIES
S
TOTAL
10.517.000.000 8.417.000.000
0
0
33.537.000.000 30.071.000.000
4.294.000.000
4.491.000.000
0
0
6.072.000.000
5.464.000.000
54.420.000.000 48.443.000.000
0
0
0
0
0
0
234.000.000
234.000.000
0
0
14.011.000.000 12.909.000.000
310000000
134000000
14.555.000.000 13.277.000.000
68.975.000.000
68
9 5 000 000 6
61.720.000.000
0 000 000
Source: PSA Peugeot Citroën, ECG analysis
135
PSA Peugeot Citroën Group 2007-2008 Financial
Ratios analysis and Capital Structure breakdown
PSA
2007
2008
0,12
0,12
Receivable/Sales*360
360
Total Assets/Sales
42
1,14
42
1,12
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Total Debt/Equity
78,9%
78,5%
54,8%
373,9%
56,0%
364,9%
71,2%
75,0%
Gross Profit Margin
38,8%
38,7%
EBITDA/Sales
/Sa es
EBIT/Sales
EBITDA Margin
a g
7,3%
,3%
1,9%
5,1%
5,
%
-0,7%
Net Income/Sales
Net Profit Margin
1,4%
1,2%
-1,2%
-1,1%
Net Income/Equity
4,9%
5,7%
-1,7%
-4,9%
EBIT/Interests
6,54
3,47
11,09
-0,69
EBITDA / ((Taxes + Interest + Current Portion of LongTermDebt)
g
)
Cashflow coverage
g of taxes,, interests & CPLTD
0,13
,
0,09
,
100,0%
21,1%
75,0%
0,0%
,
0,0%
8,8%
21,5%
0,0%
0,0%
8,9%
6,2%
7,3%
50,0%
48,6%
48,7%
25,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
15 2%
15,2%
13 6%
13,6%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
136
PSA Peugeot Citroën Group 2007-2008
Common Size Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
PSA
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
61,2% 61,3%
Personnel costs
14,9% 15,7%
16,6% 17,9%
92,7% 94,9%
EBITDA
7%
5%
EBIT
1,9%
0,7%
Financial income
1,9%
0,7%
0,1%
Pre-tax income
0,5%
1,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,4%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
100,0%
75 0%
75,0%
1,9%
5,4%
16,6%
0,7%
5,8%
17,9%
14,9%
15,7%
EBIT
50,0%
Personnel costs
25,0%
0,0%
61,2%
61,3%
2007
2008
10,0%
10,2%
33,7%
13,1%
67,0%
8,0%
21,3%
3,7%
33,0%
0,0%
100,0%
12,6%
10,4%
36,2%
5,2%
64,4%
8,9%
22,9%
3,8%
35,6%
0,0%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
15,2% 13,6%
54,8% 56,0%
Other debts
8,8%
8,9%
Total debts
78,9% 78,5%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,0%
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
0 0%
0,0%
0 0%
0,0%
21,1% 21,5%
100,0%
75,0%
33,0%
35,6%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
67,0%
64,4%
2007
2008
100,0%
21 1%
21,1%
21,5%
75,0%
50,0%
78,9%
78,5%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
25,0%
0,0%
137
MAN Group 2007-2008 Income Statement
and Balance Sheet
(In Euro)
MAN
2007
MAN
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
14.805.000.000 15.346.000.000
(8.609.000.000)
(9.215.000.000)
Personnel costs
(2.731.000.000)
(2.804.000.000)
(1.448.000.000)
(1.534.000.000)
(12.788.000.000) (13.553.000.000)
EBITDA
2.017.000.000
1.793.000.000
(397.000.000)
(324.000.000)
EBIT
1.620.000.000
1.469.000.000
Dividends
15.000.000
17.000.000
123.000.000
167.000.000
Interest expense
p
g
((79.000.000))
((10.000.000))
0
0
59.000.000
174.000.000
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
146.000.000
92.000.000
0
0
146.000.000
92.000.000
PRE-TAX INCOME
1.825.000.000
1.735.000.000
Tax
(600.000.000)
(488.000.000)
1.225.000.000
1.247.000.000
0
0
1.225.000.000
1.247.000.000
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
3.279.000.000
3.275.000.000
Receivables
3.752.000.000
4.320.000.000
973.000.000
2.820.000.000
Liquid funds
1.266.000.000
105.000.000
9.270.000.000 10.520.000.000
Totall intangible
bl ffixed
d assets
32 000 000
324.000.000
3
351.000.000
000 000
1.809.000.000
1.914.000.000
4.236.000.000
3.274.000.000
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
6.369.000.000 5.539.000.000
522.000.000
471.000.000
0
0
TOTAL ASSETS
16.161.000.000 16.530.000.000
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
O
S
SHAREHOLDERS’
O
S EQUITY
QU
AND LIABILITIES
S
TOTAL
2.454.000.000
1.952.000.000
0
0
1.562.000.000
1.052.000.000
405.000.000
684.000.000
1.342.000.000
3.288.000.000
1.151.000.000
1.138.000.000
6.914.000.000 8.114.000.000
1 588 000 000 1.408.000.000
1.588.000.000
1 408 000 000
0
0
2.482.000.000 1.612.000.000
376.000.000
376.000.000
795.000.000
795.000.000
3.977.000.000
4.184.000.000
29000000
41000000
5.177.000.000 5.396.000.000
16.161.000.000
6 6 000 000 16.530.000.000
6 530 000 000
Source: MAN, ECG analysis
138
MAN Group 2007-2008 Financial Ratios
MAN
A
Accounts
t Receivable/Sales*360
R
i bl /S l *360
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
A
Average
Collection
C ll ti
P
Period
i d iin d
days
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
2007
2008
0,25
91
1,09
0,28
101
1,08
42,8%
12,2%
133,6%
30,1%
49,1%
10,5%
150,4%
33,8%
41,9%
13 6%
13,6%
10,9%
8,3%
7,6%
25,4%
23,7%
40,0%
11,7%
11
7%
9,6%
8,1%
7,5%
26,5%
23,1%
0,35
20,51
0 90
0,90
0,91
146,90
1 16
1,16
100,0%
32,0%
32 6%
32,6%
15,4%
9,8%
75,0%
50,0%
25,0%
8,5%
9,8%
7,1%
2,5%
9,7%
8,3%
0,0%
6,9%
,
4,1%
6,4%
19,9%
15,2%
11,8%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
139
MAN Group 2007-2008 Common Size
Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
100,0%
MAN
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
58,1% 60,0%
Personnel costs
18,4% 18,3%
9,8%
10,0%
86,4% 88,3%
EBITDA
14%
12%
EBIT
10,9% 9,6%
Financial income
10,9%
9,6%
0,1%
Pre-tax income
0,5%
0,1%
0,0%
0,0%
0,4%
1,1%
10,9%
2,7%
9,8%
75 0%
75,0%
18,4%
9,6%
2,1%
10,0%
18,3%
EBIT
50,0%
Personnel costs
25,0%
0,0%
58,1%
60,0%
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
20,3%
23,2%
6,0%
7,8%
57,4%
2,0%
11,2%
26,2%
39,4%
3,2%
100,0%
19,8%
26,1%
17,1%
0,6%
63,6%
2,1%
11,6%
19,8%
33,5%
2,8%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
Other debts
Total debts
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
15,2%
12,2%
15,4%
42,8%
9,8%
0,0%
15 4%
15,4%
32,0%
100,0%
11,8%
10,5%
26,8%
49,1%
8,5%
0,0%
9 8%
9,8%
32,6%
100,0%
100,0%
75,0%
40,7%
34 5%
34,5%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
59,3%
65,5%
2007
2008
100,0%
75,0%
32,0%
32,6%
50,0%
25 0%
25,0%
0,0%
Total Liabilities
68,0%
67,4%
2007
2008
140
Volvo Group 2007-2008 Income Statement and
Balance Sheet
(In Euro)
Volvo
2007
Volvo
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
34.802.285.700 37.912.824.950
(21.140.371.980) (23.510.128.950)
Personnel costs
(4 109 987 700)
(4.109.987.700)
(4 463 012 950)
(4.463.012.950)
(5.377.188.180)
(6.283.950.200)
(30.627.547.860) (34.257.092.100)
EBITDA
4.174.737.840
3.655.732.850
(1.521.079.560)
(1.688.471.400)
EBIT
2.653.658.280
1.967.261.450
Dividends
52.434.200
3.121.250
127.427.300
154.814.000
Interest
te est expense
e pe se and
a d other
ot e financial
a c a charges
c a ges
((198.274.440)
98
0)
(376.048.200)
(3
6 0 8 00)
0
0
(18.412.940)
(218.112.950)
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
PRE-TAX INCOME
2.635.245.340
1.749.148.500
Tax
(796.146.260)
(498.650.900)
1.839.099.080
1.250.497.600
(11.706.240)
(9.238.900)
1.827.392.840
1.241.258.700
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
5.275.612.160
6.752.387.400
Receivables
6.880.464.500
6.310.293.550
2.010.546.720
736.739.850
Liquid funds
1.650.823.720
2.081.748.900
15.817.447.100 15.881.169.700
Totall intangible
bl ffixed
d assets
4.443.615.540
36
0
5.482.038.650
82 038 6 0
7.436.145.080
9.257.877.200
2.032.495.920
2.373.273.650
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
13.912.256.540 17.113.189.500
0
0
0
0
TOTAL ASSETS
29.729.703.640 32.994.359.200
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
O
S
SHAREHOLDERS’
O
S EQUITY
QU
AND LIABILITIES
S
TOTAL
6.301.981.140
6.273.712.500
0
0
4.943.325.660
7.013.823.300
5.040.877.660
5.376.290.700
0
130.343.400
0
0
16.286.184.460 18.794.169.900
4 282 288 920 4.830.696.200
4.282.288.920
4 830 696 200
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
70603260
78655500
9.161.230.260 9.369.493.100
29.729.703.640
9
9 03 6 0 3
32.994.359.200
99 359 00
Source: Volvo, ECG analysis
141
Volvo Group 2007-2008 Financial Ratios
Volvo
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBITDA/S
l
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
M
i
Net Profit Margin
2007
2008
0,20
71
0,85
0,17
60
0,87
54,8%
33,6%
177,8%
55,0%
57,0%
37,6%
200,6%
57,4%
39,3%
12,0%
12
0%
7,6%
5,3%
6,1%
19,1%
19,9%
38,0%
9 6%
9,6%
5,2%
3,3%
3,8%
11,5%
13,2%
2,00
13,38
0 70
0,70
2,82
5,23
0,46
0
46
100,0%
30,8%
75,0%
0,0%
14,4%
50,0%
28,4%
0,0%
17,0%
0,0%
14,6%
0,0%
16,3%
25,0%
0,0%
16,6%
21,3%
0,0%
0,4%
21,2%
19,0%
,
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
142
Volvo Group 2007-2008 Common Size
Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
100,0%
Volvo
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
60,7% 62,0%
Personnel costs
11,8% 11,8%
15,5% 16,6%
88,0% 90,4%
EBITDA
12%
10%
EBIT
7,6%
5,2%
Financial income
7,6%
5,2%
0,0%
Pre-tax income
0,6%
1,0%
0,0%
0,0%
0,1%
0,6%
75,0%
7,6%
4,4%
15,5%
5,2%
4,5%
16,6%
11,8%
11,8%
EBIT
50,0%
Personnel costs
25,0%
0,0%
60,7%
62,0%
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
17,7%
23,1%
6,8%
5,6%
53,2%
14,9%
25,0%
6,8%
46,8%
0,0%
100,0%
20,5%
19,1%
2,2%
6,3%
48,1%
16,6%
28,1%
7,2%
51,9%
0,0%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
Other debts
Total debts
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
21,2%
33,6%
0,0%
54,8%
14,4%
0,0%
0 0%
0,0%
30,8%
100,0%
19,0%
37,6%
0,4%
57,0%
14,6%
0,0%
0 0%
0,0%
28,4%
100,0%
100,0%
75,0%
46,8%
51,9%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
53,2%
48,1%
2007
2008
100,0%
75,0%
30,8%
28,4%
50,0%
25 0%
25,0%
0,0%
Total Liabilities
69,2%
71,6%
2007
2008
143
Main European Automotive Manufacturers 2007-2008:
Average Income Statement and Balance Sheet
NOTE: The concept of “Average” Business Model
Each segment
g
or sector figure
g
p
presented in the box on the right
g
represents
p
an ideal “INDIVIDUAL” company
p y and not
the sum/combination/consolidation of any firms composing the segment or the sector under analysis
(In Euro)
Companies analyzed
TOTAL REVENUES
Personnel costs
EBITDA
EBIT
Dividends
Write-downs
Revaluations
PRE-TAX INCOME
Tax
Automotive Manufacturers
2007
2008
59.297.535.713 58.802.728.119
(36.989.398.512) (37.358.748.589)
(7.736.896.448)
(7.799.769.148)
(6.780.773.523)
(7.108.243.775)
(51.507.068.483) (52.266.761.513)
7.790.467.230
6.535.966.606
(4.276.384.945)
(4.095.433.925)
3.514.082.285
2.440.532.681
355.429.275
(60.484.844)
378.803.413
403.851.750
(388.034.305)
(797.881.025)
0
0
346.198.383
(454.514.119)
0
0
0
0
0
42.000.000
(142.625.000)
(100.625.000)
3.759.655.668
(1.269.768.283)
2.489.887.385
(11.088.280)
2.478.299.105
0
14.000.000
(87.500.000)
(73.500.000)
1.912.518.563
(568.831.363)
1.343.687.200
(41.404.863)
1.318.532.338
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
g term Interest bearing
g debts
Long
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY AND LIABILITIES
2007
2008
8.356.951.520
9.538.423.425
17.756.683.063
17
756 683 063 18.746.411.694
18 746 411 694
5.944.193.340
5.415.967.481
6.429.102.965
4.374.718.613
38.486.930.888 38.075.521.213
4.823.826.943
5.829.004.831
14.317.143.135 15.213.734.650
17.902.061.990 19.358.409.206
37.043.032.068 40.401.148.688
1.051.000.000 1.282.250.000
0
0
76.580.962.955 79.758.919.900
0,00
0,00
10.375.872.643 9.123.339.063
0
0
17.772.915.708 20.818.852.913
12.462.234.708 14.303.911.338
3.544.750.000
3.830.042.925
2.550.625.000
2.717.000.000
46.706.398.058 50.793.146.238
9.103.786.115 8.720.587.025
0
0
1.501.625.000 1.627.125.000
766.375.000
767.750.000
4.620.750.000
4.306.000.000
11.024.875.000 10.419.875.000
310950407,5
575456937,5
19.269.153.783 18.618.061.638
76.580.962.955 79.758.919.900
Source: Daimler, BMW, Fiat; Renault, PSA Peugeot Citroën, Volkswagen, MAN, Volvo, ECG analysis
144
Financial Ratios analysis and Capital Structure breakdown
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
Companies analyzed
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
2007
2008
0,30
108
1,29
0,32
115
1,36
61,0%
39,5%
242,4%
77,9%
63,7%
44,0%
272,8%
91,4%
37,6%
13,1%
13
1%
5,9%
4,2%
3,2%
9,5%
12,9%
36,5%
11,1%
11
1%
4,2%
2,2%
1,7%
6,0%
7,1%
3,06
9,06
0 40
0,40
4,70
3,06
0 29
0,29
100,0%
75,0%
25,2%
23,3%
2,0%
2,0%
10,9%
11,9%
3,3%
50,0%
16,3%
3,4%
17,9%
25,0%
0,0%
23,2%
26,1%
4,6%
4,8%
13,5%
11,4%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
145
Breakdown of EBIT
Companies analyzed
2007
2008
Total revenues
100%
100%
62,4%
63,5%
Personnel costs
13,0%
13,3%
11,4%
12,1%
86,9%
88,9%
EBITDA
13%
11%
EBIT
5,9%
4,2%
Financial income
5,9%
4,2%
0,6%
0,1%
Pre-tax income
0,7%
1,4%
0,0%
0,0%
0,6%
0,8%
100,0%
75 0%
75,0%
5,9%
7,2%
11,4%
13,0%
4,2%
7,0%
12,1%
13 3%
13,3%
0 0%
0,0%
50,0%
25,0%
EBIT
62,4%
2007
63,5%
Personnel costs
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
10,9%
23,2%
7,8%
8,4%
50,3%
6,3%
18,7%
23,4%
48,4%
1,4%
100,0%
12,0%
23,5%
6,8%
5,5%
47,7%
7,3%
19,1%
24,3%
50,7%
1,6%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
Other debts
Total debts
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
13,5%
39,5%
8,0%
61,0%
11,9%
0,0%
2 0%
2,0%
25,2%
100,0%
11,4%
44,0%
8,2%
63,7%
10,9%
0,0%
2 0%
2,0%
23,3%
100,0%
100,0%
75,0%
49,0%
51,5%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
51,0%
48,5%
2007
2008
100,0%
25,2%
23 3%
23,3%
75,0%
50,0%
74,8%
76,7%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
25,0%
,
0,0%
146
• Appendix:
147
Pure Trucks Business Model 2007-2008: “Average”
Each segment or sector figure presented in the box on the right represents an ideal “INDIVIDUAL” company and not
(In Euro)
14
8
Pure trucks
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
34.773.872 21.729.365
(19.720.396) (11.554.355)
Personnel costs
(7 524 676)
(7.524.676)
(5 817 764)
(5.817.764)
(4.414.705)
(2.142.190)
(31.659.777) (19.514.309)
EBITDA
3.114.095
2.215.055
(1.485.610)
(1.826.626)
EBIT
1.628.486
388.430
Dividends
0
0
254.288
191.074
(297.202)
(283.185)
0
0
(42.914)
(92.112)
Write-downs
(2.327)
0
Revaluations
0
0
(2.327)
0
32.924
36.982
(103.899)
(208.528)
(70.975)
(171.546)
PRE-TAX INCOME
1.512.269
124.772
Tax
(513.419)
(89.942)
998.850
34.830
0
0
998.850
34.830
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
14
8
Pure trucks
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
507.422
332.604
Receivables
7.327.104
4.432.894
486.089
216.821
Liquid funds
1.706.380
1.854.077
10.026.995
10
026 995 6.836.395
6 836 395
785.104
45.254
8.216.644
9.472.844
5.445.063
7.947.666
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
14.446.811 17.465.765
303.672
283.753
8.922
0
TOTAL ASSETS
24.786.399 24.585.913
0,00
,
0
6.585.922
2.486.444
0
0
2.997.356
45.384
1.302.378
5.885.404
2.230.633
3.553.208
2.299.061
3.040.205
TOTAL DEBTS
15.415.351 15.010.645
1.409.509
23.250
33.083
21.375
520.438
765.136
Share capital
1.416.109
1.938.440
Reserves
3.475.258
4.037.756
Retained Earnings
2.393.278
2.444.991
Minority interest
18729,21719 9945,406824
7.408.017 8.765.507
24.786.399 24.585.913
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
Source: Dun & Bradstreet European Comprehensive Reports, ECG analysis on 14 Companies for 2007 and on 8 Companies for 2008
148
Pure Trucks Business Model 2007-2008: Financial
Pure trucks
2007
2008
0,21
0,20
Total Assets/Sales
LEVERAGE RATIOS
76
73
0,71
1,13
Total Debt Ratio
62,2%
61,1%
17,3%
24,1%
Total Debt/Equity
208,1%
171,2%
48,6%
101,8%
43,3%
46,8%
EBITDA/Sales
EBITDA Margin
9 0%
9,0%
10 2%
10,2%
EBIT/Sales
4,7%
1,8%
Net Income/Sales
Net Profit Margin
2,9%
0,2%
4,0%
0,1%
11,3%
2,2%
13,5%
0,4%
Gross Profit Margin
Net Income/Equity
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
relative
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
0,83
EBIT/Interests
5,48
1,37
0 82
0,82
5 29
5,29
1,84
100,0%
29,9%
75,0%
2,1%
0,0%
5,7%
9,3%
50,0%
5,3%
12,1%
35,7%
3,1%
0,1%
0,1%
12,4%
0,2%
26,6%
0,0%
23,9%
9,0%
25,0%
14,5%
Due to suppliers
10,1%
2007
2008
149
Pure Trucks Business Model 2007-2008: Common
Size Statements Analysis
14
Breakdown of EBIT
8
100,0%
Pure trucks
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
56,7% 53,2%
Personnel costs
21,6% 26,8%
12,7%
9,9%
91,0% 89,8%
EBITDA
9%
10%
EBIT
4,7%
1,8%
Financial income
4,7%
1,8%
0,0%
Pre-tax income
0,9%
1,3%
0,0%
0,0%
0,1%
0,4%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
75 0%
75,0%
4,7%
4,3%
12,7%
1,8%
8,4%
9,9%
21,6%
26,8%
0,0%
50,0%
25,0%
EBIT
Personnel costs
56,7%
53,2%
2007
2008
2,0%
29,6%
2,0%
6,9%
40,5%
3,2%
33,1%
22,0%
58,3%
1,2%
100,0%
1,4%
18,0%
0,9%
7,5%
27,8%
0,2%
38,5%
32,3%
71,0%
1,2%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
26,6% 10,1%
17,3% 24,1%
Other debts
18,3% 26,8%
Total debts
62,2% 61,1%
5,7%
0,1%
0,1%
0,1%
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
2 1%
2,1%
3 1%
3,1%
29,9% 35,7%
100,0%
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to
t 2008
75,0%
59,0%
71,9%
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
Total Fixed Assets
41,0%
2007
28,1%
2008
100,0%
29,9%
75,0%
35,7%
50,0%
64,3%
2007
2008
25,0%
0,0%
Total Liabilities
70,1%
150
Trucks & Ports Business Model 2007-2008: Average
(In Euro)
7
5
Trucks & Ports
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
59.908.745 56.492.711
(37.067.626) (36.329.993)
Personnel costs
(10.909.751) (7.694.361)
(3.242.815)
(1.041.837)
(51.220.193) (45.066.191)
EBITDA
8.688.552
11.426.520
(4.022.767)
(4.870.366)
EBIT
4.665.785
6.556.155
Dividends
0
0
294.284
604.999
Inte est expense
Interest
e pense and other
othe financial charges
cha ges
(1 930 928)
(1.930.928)
(3 408 734)
(3.408.734)
0
0
(1.636.645) (2.803.735)
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
274.343
125.200
(81.520)
(43.012)
192 824
192.824
82 188
82.188
PRE-TAX INCOME
3.221.964
3.834.607
Tax
(1.937.686)
(2.052.288)
1.284.279
1.782.319
0
0
1.284.279
1.782.319
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
7
5
Trucks & Ports
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
777.362
22.015.818
627.230
1.294.536
24 714 947
24.714.947
26.694.733
17.050.209
14.280.932
58.025.875
116.331
0
82.857.152
1.167.454
16.736.108
873.842
1.844.374
20 621 779
20.621.779
40.449.878
16.173.099
6.890.663
63.513.641
55.696
0
84.191.116
0 00
0,00
0
16.268.806 8.001.002
0
0
6.155.280
6.862.947
27.871.883 37.333.814
5.157.469
3.741.504
3.784.874
214.127
59.238.313 56.153.393
3.879.840 6.052.100
0
0
523.177
809.648
7.386.921
7.553.465
9.631.741 10.001.496
2.207.194
3.621.013
0
0
19.215.823 21.175.974
82.857.152 84.191.116
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
151
Trucks & Ports Business Model 2007-2008: Financial
Trucks & Ports
2007
2008
360
Total Assets/Sales
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
relative
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Total Debt/Equity
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA/Sales
EBITDA Margin
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Profit Margin
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
EBITDA / (Taxes + Interest + Current Portion of LongTermDebt) Cashflow coverage of taxes,
0,37
132
1,38
0,30
107
1,49
71,5%
41,1%
308,3%
164,7%
66,7%
52,5%
265,2%
177,3%
38,1%
14,5%
14
5%
7,8%
2,1%
1,5%
8,0%
6,7%
35,7%
20,2%
20
2%
11,6%
3,2%
2,1%
10,3%
8,4%
3,77
2,42
0 87
0,87
3,71
1,92
0 93
0,93
100,0%
23,2%
75,0%
0,6%
4,7%
4,6%
25,2%
1,0%
7,2%
0,3%
50,0%
33,6%
44 3%
44,3%
25,0%
0,0%
7,4%
6,2%
19 6%
19,6%
8,2%
4,4%
,
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
9,5%
152
Trucks & Ports Business Model 2007-2008: Common
Total revenues
7
100,0%
Trucks & Ports
2007
2008
100% 100%
61,9%
Personnel costs
18,2%
5,4%
85,5%
EBITDA
15%
EBIT
7,8%
Financial income
7,8%
0 0%
Pre-tax income
3,2%
0,0%
2,7%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Short-term
Short
term investments
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Breakdown of EBIT
5
0,9%
26,6%
0,8%
1,6%
29,8%
32,2%
20,6%
17,2%
70,0%
0,1%
,
100,0%
75 0%
75,0%
64,3%
13,6%
1,8%
79,8%
20%
11,6%
11,6%
0 0%
0,0%
6,0%
0,0%
5,0%
1,4%
19,9%
1,0%
2,2%
24,5%
48,0%
19,2%
8,2%
75,4%
0,1%
100,0%
,
Due to suppliers
19,6%
9,5%
41,1% 52,5%
Other debts
10,8%
4,7%
Total debts
71,5% 66,7%
4,7%
7,2%
0,0%
0,0%
0,6%
1,0%
23,2% 25,2%
7,8%
6,7%
5,4%
18,2%
11,6%
8,6%
1,8%
,
13,6%
0,0%
50,0%
25,0%
EBIT
Personnel costs
61,9%
64,3%
2007
2008
100,0%
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to
t 2008
75,0%
70,1%
75,5%
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
Total Fixed Assets
29 9%
29,9%
24,5%
2007
2008
100,0%
23 2%
23,2%
25 2%
25,2%
75,0%
50,0%
76,8%
74,8%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
25 0%
25,0%
0,0%
153
Trucks & Wagons Business Model 2007-2008:
(In Euro)
2
2
Trucks & Wagons
2007
2008
2
Trucks & Wagons
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
116.596.482 104.659.994
(106.184.827) (101.926.307)
Personnel costs
(7.087.424)
(5.958.456)
(1.267.208)
(19.934)
(114.539.459) (107.904.697)
EBITDA
2.057.023
(3.244.703)
(1.056.434)
(1.725.926)
EBIT
1.000.589
(4.970.629)
Dividends
0
0
15.503.461
6.420.192
(1.557.478)
(186.491)
0
0
13.945.983
6.233.701
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
6.214.287
635.937
(4.437.265)
(1.540.406)
1.777.022
(904.469)
PRE-TAX INCOME
16.723.594
358.604
Tax
(1.185.539)
595.370
15.538.054
953.974
0
0
15.538.054
953.974
2
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
341.282
38.073.366
97.569
1.551.226
40.063.444
928.424
10.178.384
47.430.892
58.537.700
103.573
0
98 704 718
98.704.718
143.871
33.786.746
100.618
1.510.355
35.541.589
645.950
13.819.509
39.194.768
53.660.227
100.568
0
89 302 383
89.302.383
0,00
0
18.932.973 18.469.818
0
0
0
0
8.564.692
499.290
2.542.320
7.546.338
5 376 082
5.376.082
4 571 251
4.571.251
35.416.066 31.086.697
10.591.495 7.947.367
0
0
0
0
16.850.000 15.000.000
31.075.635 34.313.354
4.771.521
954.966
0
0
52.697.156 50.268.319
98.704.718 89.302.383
154
Trucks & Wagons Business Model 2007-2008: Financial
Trucks & Wagons
2007
2008
0,33
0,32
Total Assets/Sales
118
0,85
116
0,85
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
35,9%
8,7%
34,8%
0,6%
Total Debt/Equity
67,2%
26,5%
61,8%
10,1%
Gross Profit Margin
8,9%
2,6%
1 8%
1,8%
-3,1%
3 1%
0,9%
13,3%
-4,7%
0,9%
EBITDA/Sales
EBITDA Margin
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Profit Margin
15,7%
1,7%
1,1%
-9,3%
Net Income/Equity
29,5%
1,9%
3,41
0,31
EBIT/Interests
0,64
0,75
0
75
(26,65)
7 94
7,94
100,0%
75,0%
53,4%
56,3%
50,0%
0,0%
0
0%
10,7%
5,4%
25,0%
0,0%
8,7%
0,0%
2,6%
0,0%
8,9%
5,1%
0,6%
0,0%
8,5%
Due to suppliers
19 2%
19,2%
20 7%
20,7%
2007
2008
155
Trucks & Wagons Business Model 2007-2008:
2
2
Trucks & Wagons
2007
2008
Total revenues
100%
100%
91,1%
97,4%
Personnel costs
6,1%
5,7%
1,1%
0,0%
98,2% 103,1%
EBITDA
2%
3%
EBIT
0,9%
4,7%
Financial income
0,9%
4,7%
0,0%
Pre-tax income
1,3%
0,2%
0,0%
0,0%
12,0%
6,0%
100,0%
80,0%
0,9%
0,9%
1,1%
6,1%
Breakdown of EBIT
4,7%
1,6%
0,0%
5,7%
EBIT
60,0%
91,1%
40,0%
97,4%
Personnel costs
20,0%
0,0%
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
0,3%
0,2%
38,6%
37,8%
0,1%
0,1%
1,6%
1,7%
40,6% 39,8%
0,9%
0,7%
10,3%
15,5%
48,1%
43,9%
59,3% 60,1%
0,1%
0,1%
100,0% 100,0%
Due to suppliers
Other debts
Total debts
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
19,2%
20,7%
8,7%
0,6%
8,0%
13,6%
35,9% 34,8%
10,7%
8,9%
0,0%
0,0%
0 0%
0,0%
0 0%
0,0%
53,4% 56,3%
100,0% 100,0%
100,0%
75,0%
59,4%
60,2%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
40,6%
,
39,8%
,
2007
2008
100,0%
75,0%
53,4%
56,3%
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
Total Liabilities
46 6%
46,6%
43 7%
43,7%
2007
2008
156
Mostly Ships Business Model 2007-2008: Average
3
3
Mostly Ships
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
910.804.084 1.031.855.120
(504.949.744) (606.684.396)
Personnel costs
(129.029.328) (140.059.414)
(78.399.014)
(98.738.877)
(712.378.086) (845.482.687)
EBITDA
198.425.998 186.372.433
(61.322.735)
(68.018.720)
EBIT
137.103.263 118.353.713
Dividends
30.632.470
22.791.677
2.761.309
1.841.000
(22.440.188)
(75.055.170)
(588.362)
(2.345.667)
10.365.229
(52.768.160)
Write-downs
(418.653)
(655.000)
Revaluations
0
0
(418.653)
(655.000)
18.272.968
50.052.487
(6.807.905)
(8.725.667)
EXTRAORDINARY INCOME AND EXPENSE 11.465.063
41.326.820
PRE-TAX INCOME
158.514.902 106.257.373
Tax
(55.905.184)
12.211.140
102.609.718 118.468.513
(974.428)
(911.213)
102.609.717 118.468.513
(In Euro)
3
3
Mostly Ships
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
45.946.521
42.337.913
Receivables
195 816 539
195.816.539
165 763 457
165.763.457
58.209.233
26.880.793
Liquid funds
67.750.923
90.447.997
367.723.217 325.430.160
88.197.406
94.512.390
1.114.297.959 1.306.061.547
382.378.358
646.198.247
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
1.584.873.724 2.046.772.183
11.576.947
23.384.353
0
0
TOTAL ASSETS
1.964.173.887 2.395.586.697
g term Interest bearing
g debts
Long
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
172.963.839
209.140.177
11.333
0
125.127.335
174.218.333
577.714.996
735.390.893
16.325.328
36.677.667
19.439.320
148.222.180
911.582.152 1.303.649.250
122.302.338
94.050.417
1.558.738
1.464.667
58.748.840
52.891.450
156.848.013
154.920.007
320.096.245
394.050.447
390.090.161
392.227.700
2947400
2332760
869.981.819 943.530.913
1.964.173.887 2.395.586.697
157
Mostly Ships Business Model 2007-2008: Financial
360
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
EBIT/Interests
EBITDA / (T
(Taxes + Interest
I t
t + Current
C
t Portion
P ti
off LongTermDebt)
L
T
D bt)
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
C hfl
Cashflow
coverage off taxes,
t
interests
i t
t & CPLTD
2007
Mostly Ships
2008
0,21
77
2,16
0,16
58
2,32
46,4%
35,8%
104,8%
68,6%
54,4%
38,0%
138,2%
93,6%
44,6%
21,8%
21
8%
15,1%
11,3%
5,2%
8,7%
11,8%
41,2%
18,1%
18
1%
11,5%
11,5%
4,9%
5,8%
12,6%
3,20
6,11
0 98
0,98
4,40
1,58
0 79
0,79
100,0%
75,0%
44,3%
39,4%
50,0%
3,0%
6,2%
1 0%
1,0%
29,4%
2,2%
3,9%
6,2%
30,7%
25,0%
0,0%
6,4%
0 8%
0,8%
8,8%
7,3%
1 5%
1,5%
8,7%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
158
Mostly Ships Business Model 2007-2008: Common
3
3
Mostly Ships
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
55,4% 58,8%
Personnel costs
14,2% 13,6%
8,6%
9,6%
78,2% 81,9%
EBITDA
22%
18%
EBIT
15,1% 11,5%
Financial income
15,1% 11,5%
2,2%
Pre-tax income
2,5%
7,3%
0,1%
0,2%
1,1%
5,1%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
Breakdown of EBIT
100,0%
75 0%
75,0%
15,1%
6,7%
8,6%
14,2%
11,5%
6,6%
9,6%
EBIT
13,6%
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
55,4%
58,8%
2007
2008
Personnel costs
2,3%
10,0%
3,0%
3,4%
18,7%
4,5%
56,7%
19,5%
80,7%
0,6%
100,0%
1,8%
6,9%
1,1%
3,8%
13,6%
3,9%
54,5%
27,0%
85,4%
1,0%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
8,8%
8,7%
35,8% 38,0%
Other debts
1,8%
7,7%
Total debts
46,4% 54,4%
6,2%
3,9%
0,1%
0,1%
A
Accrued
d expenses and
dd
deferred
f
d iincome
3 0%
3,0%
2 2%
2,2%
44,3% 39,4%
100,0%
75,0%
81,2%
50,0%
86,3%
Total Fixed Assets
25,0%
,
18,8%
0,0%
13,7%
2008
100,0%
75,0%
44,3%
39,4%
50,0%
25 0%
25,0%
Total Liabilities
55,7%
60,6%
2007
2008
0,0%
159
Ports & Terminals Business Model 2007-2008:
(In Euro)
3
2
Ports & Terminals
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
74.054.013 90.765.500
(33.913.641) (31.948.028)
Personnel costs
(23.717.449) (35.502.226)
(3.779.340)
(5.395.510)
(61.410.430) (72.845.764)
EBITDA
12.643.583 17.919.736
(8.920.851) (13.423.736)
EBIT
3.722.731
4.496.000
Dividends
0
0
636.519
1.624.000
(2.140.154)
(3.822.000)
0
0
(1.503.636) (2.198.000)
Write-downs
(269.000)
(48.500)
Revaluations
0
19.000
(269.000)
(29.500)
530.204
276.000
(336.562)
(698.500)
193 642
193.642
(422 500)
(422.500)
PRE-TAX INCOME
2.143.738
1.846.000
Tax
(893.662)
(838.500)
1.250.076
1.007.500
0
0
1.250.076
1.007.500
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
3
2
Ports & Terminals
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
594.333
14.496.703
230.974
430.156
15 752 167
15.752.167
76.349
46.341.819
1.659.240
48.077.409
203.805
0
64.033.380
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
8.936.602 10.288.500
0
0
8.490.792 21.660.500
4.330.009
0
5.614.374
926.000
27.333
16.500
27.399.109 32.891.500
6.081.200 2.847.500
0
0
112.842
0
5.754.614
6.961.716
22.934.195 31.330.092
1.751.420
2.075.192
0
0
30.440.229 40.367.000
64.033.380 76.106.000
947.000
17.320.000
0
1.883.000
20 150 000
20.150.000
0
55.147.500
808.500
55.956.000
0
0
76.106.000
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
160
Ports & Terminals Business Model 2007-2008: Financial
Ports & Terminals
2007
2008
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
relative
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
EBIT/Interests
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
Cashflow coverage of taxes,
0,20
70
0,86
0,19
69
0,84
42,8%
20,0%
90,0%
14,3%
43,2%
28,5%
81,5%
0,0%
54,2%
17,1%
17
1%
5,0%
1,7%
2,0%
7,7%
4,1%
64,8%
19,7%
19
7%
5,0%
1,1%
1,3%
8,0%
2,5%
0,98
1,74
1,10
1
10
1,10
1,18
0,68
0
68
100,0%
75,0%
47,5%
53,0%
50,0%
25,0%
0,2%
9,5%
0 0%
0,0%
6,8%
0,0%
3,7%
,
0,0%
0,0%
13,3%
28,5%
8,8%
0,0%
1,2%
14 0%
14,0%
13,5%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
161
Ports & Terminals Business Model 2007-2008:
Breakdown of EBIT
3
2
100,0%
Ports & Terminals
2007
2008
Total revenues
100%
100%
45,8%
35,2%
Personnel costs
32,0%
39,1%
5,1%
5,9%
82,9% 80,3%
EBITDA
17%
20%
EBIT
5,0%
5,0%
Financial income
5,0%
5,0%
0,0%
Pre-tax income
2,9%
4,2%
0,0%
0,0%
2,0%
2,4%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
0,9%
1,2%
22,6%
,
22,8%
,
0,4%
0,0%
0,7%
2,5%
24,6% 26,5%
0,1%
0,0%
72,4%
72,5%
2,6%
1,1%
75,1% 73,5%
0,3%
0,0%
100,0% 100,0%
Due to suppliers
14,0%
13,5%
20,0%
28,5%
Other debts
8,8%
1,2%
Total debts
42,8% 43,2%
9,5%
3,7%
R
Reserve
ffor employee
l
termination
i
i
0 0%
0,0%
0 0%
0,0%
0,2%
0,0%
47,5% 53,0%
75,0%
5,0%
12,0%
5 1%
5,1%
32,0%
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
5,0%
14,8%
5 9%
5,9%
39,1%
EBIT
Personnel costs
45,8%
2007
35,2%
2008
100,0%
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to
t 2008
75,0%
75,3%
73,5%
50,0%
Total Fixed Assets
25,0%
,
0,0%
24,7%
26,5%
2007
2008
100,0%
75,0%
47,5%
53,0%
50,0%
Total Liabilities
25 0%
25,0%
52 5%
52,5%
47,0%
0,0%
2007
2008
162
Multimodal Business Model 2007-2008: Average
(In Euro)
7
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
6
Multimodal
2007
2008
6
Multimodal
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
480.800.128 510.802.959
(382 818 197) (424.449.810)
(382.818.197)
(424 449 810)
Personnel costs
(64.514.595)
(61.439.056)
(4.089.601)
(4.841.805)
(451.422.392) (490.730.672)
EBITDA
29.377.736
20.072.287
(7.892.572)
(6.824.125)
EBIT
21.485.164
13.248.162
Dividends
0
0
9.771.545
13.424.384
(2.450.018)
(5.868.273)
0
0
7.321.527
7.556.112
Write-downs
0
0
Revaluations
0
0
0
0
5.608.913
4.484.142
(12.654.537)
(6.873.242)
EXTRAORDINARY INCOME AND EXPENSE (7.045.623)
(2.389.101)
PRE-TAX INCOME
21.761.068
18.415.173
Tax
(3.282.951)
(4.000.407)
18.478.117
14.414.766
0
0
18.478.117
14.414.766
7
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
TOTAL ASSETS
1.203.387
113.367.364
1.698.714
24.591.705
140.861.170
9.273.193
44.584.657
27.335.693
81.193.543
1.737.225
0
223.791.938
TOTAL DEBTS
Share capital
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Minority interest
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS
SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY
77.924.517
88.024.372
0
0
22.425.579
8.728.514
25.082.625
24.357.687
9.042.364
5.377.376
4.951.714
5.280.333
139 426 800 131.768.283
139.426.800
131 768 283
9.818.146
7.285.910
0
0
2.125.743
5.087.145
15.462.868
13.001.108
45.721.789
41.752.997
11.236.593
11.812.575
0
0
72.421.250 66.566.680
223.791.938 210.708.018
720.591
108.982.280
1.296.000
16.594.068
127.592.939
11.020.587
37.062.796
33.020.260
81.103.644
2.011.435
0
210.708.018
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
163
Multimodal Business Model 2007-2008: Financial
Multimodal
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
relative
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
EBIT/Interests
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
2007
2008
0,24
85
0,47
0,21
77
0,41
62,3%
21,2%
192,5%
41,5%
62,5%
15,7%
197,9%
44,5%
20,4%
6,1%
4,5%
3,8%
8,3%
26,5%
25,5%
16,9%
3,9%
2,6%
2,8%
6,8%
16,3%
21,7%
0,78
8,77
1,04
0,82
2,26
1,08
100,0%
32 4%
32,4%
31 6%
31,6%
0,9%
4,4%
2,2%
11,2%
2,4%
3,5%
2,5%
11,6%
4,1%
2,6%
75,0%
50,0%
10,0%
4,0%
25,0%
34,8%
0,0%
2007
41,8%
Due to suppliers
2008
164
Multimodal Business Model 2007-2008: Common Size
Statements Analysis
Breakdown of EBIT
7
6
100,0%
Multimodal
2007
2008
Total revenues
100% 100%
79,6% 83,1%
Personnel costs
13,4% 12,0%
0,9%
0,9%
93,9% 96,1%
EBITDA
6%
4%
EBIT
4,5%
2,6%
Financial income
4,5%
2,6%
0,0%
Pre-tax income
0,5%
1,1%
0,0%
0,0%
1,5%
1,5%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Sh
Short-term
i
investments
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
0,5%
50,7%
0 8%
0,8%
11,0%
62,9%
4,1%
19,9%
12,2%
36,3%
0,8%
100 0%
100,0%
0,3%
51,7%
0 6%
0,6%
7,9%
60,6%
5,2%
17,6%
15,7%
38,5%
1,0%
100 0%
100,0%
Due to suppliers
34,8% 41,8%
21,2% 15,7%
Other debts
6,3%
5,1%
Total debts
62,3% 62,5%
4,4%
3,5%
0 0%
0,0%
0 0%
0,0%
0,9%
2,4%
32,4% 31,6%
4,5%
1,6%
0,9%
13,4%
75,0%
2,6%
1,3%
0,9%
12,0%
EBIT
50,0%
79,6%
83,1%
Personnel costs
25,0%
0,0%
2007
2008
100,0%
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to
t 2008
75,0%
36 6%
36,6%
38 9%
38,9%
Total Fixed Assets
50,0%
25,0%
0,0%
63,4%
61,1%
2007
2008
100,0%
32,4%
31,6%
75,0%
50,0%
67,6%
68,4%
2007
2008
Total Liabilities
25,0%
0,0%
165
Outbound Logistics Business Model 2007-2008:
(In Euro)
36
26
2007
2008
TOTAL REVENUES
44.129.930 64.868.059
(28.543.538) (43.317.603)
Personnel costs
(6.389.032)
(9.159.688)
(2.505.071)
(4.006.434)
(37.437.640) (56.483.726)
EBITDA
6.692.289
8.384.333
(2.228.973)
(3.453.196)
EBIT
4.463.316
4.931.137
Dividends
806.118
813.988
768.984
860.916
(810.947)
(3.165.138)
(15.483)
(83.774)
748.672
(1.574.007)
Write-downs
(18.157)
(25.125)
Revaluations
0
679
(18.157)
(24.446)
814.043
1.986.098
(642 676)
(642.676)
(646 048)
(646.048)
171.367
1.340.050
PRE-TAX INCOME
5.365.198
4.672.733
Tax
(1.676.801)
208.049
3.688.397
4.880.782
(25.643)
(32.543)
3.688.397
4.880.782
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
36
26
Outbound Logistics
2007
2008
ASSETS
Inventories
1.299.219
1.630.337
Receivables
10.292.024 12.393.624
1.614.469
1.048.860
Liquid funds
2.561.182
4.076.210
15.766.893
15
766 893 19.149.031
19 149 031
3.314.611
5.238.359
32.649.202 51.347.761
12.592.899 26.216.432
TOTAL FIXED ASSETS
48.556.712 82.802.552
369.515
922.707
235
0
TOTAL ASSETS
64.693.355 102.874.290
0 00
0,00
0 00
0,00
7.937.175
12.014.654
298
0
4.347.272
7.554.131
16.970.173 28.695.253
1.076.644
2.065.075
944.168
5.762.307
TOTAL DEBTS
31.275.731 56.091.420
4.054.803 4.221.662
41.890
53.073
1.632.396 2.126.906
Share capital
5.361.014
7.120.526
Reserves
11.393.023 18.410.219
Retained Earnings
10.853.952 14.754.873
Minority interest
78056,03203 83668,05024
27.688.534 40.381.228
64.693.355 102.874.290
Note: Please
do not compare
“absolute”
values
horizontally
since the set of
companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
166
Outbound Logistics Business Model 2007-2008: Financial
Outbound Logistics
Total Assets/Sales
Total Debt/Equity
EBITDA/Sales
EBIT/Sales
Net Income/Sales
Net Income/Equity
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
relative
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to 2008
EBIT/Interests
LEVERAGE RATIOS
Total Debt Ratio
Gross Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Profit Margin
2007
2008
0,23
84
1,47
0,19
69
1,59
48,3%
33,0%
113,0%
64,7%
54,5%
35,2%
138,9%
85,3%
35,3%
15,2%
15
2%
10,1%
8,4%
5,7%
9,2%
13,3%
33,2%
12,9%
12
9%
7,6%
7,5%
4,7%
6,0%
12,1%
2,80
5,50
0,98
3,84
1,56
0,80
100,0%
75,0%
50,0%
42,8%
39,3%
2,5%
6,3%
1,5%
2,1%
4,1%
5,6%
25,0%
0,0%
26,2%
27,9%
6,7%
1,7%
7,3%
2,0%
12 3%
12,3%
11,7%
2007
2008
Due to suppliers
167
Outbound Logistics Business Model 2007-2008:
Breakdown of EBIT
36
100,0%
26
Outbound
L i ti
Logistics
2007
2008
Total revenues
100%
100%
64,7%
66,8%
Personnel costs
14,5%
14,1%
5,7%
6,2%
84,8% 87,1%
EBITDA
15%
13%
EBIT
10 1%
10,1%
7 6%
7,6%
Financial income
10,1%
7,6%
1,3%
Pre-tax income
1,8%
4,9%
0,0%
0,1%
1,7%
2,4%
ASSETS
Inventories
Receivables
Liquid funds
Total fixed assets
Total assets
75,0%
,
10,1%
5,1%
5,7%
14,5%
7,6%
5,3%
6,2%
14,1%
EBIT
50,0%
64,7%
66,8%
2007
2008
25,0%
0,0%
Personnel costs
100,0%
2,0%
1,6%
15,9%
12,0%
2,5%
1,0%
4,0%
4,0%
24,4% 18,6%
5,1%
5,1%
50,5%
49,9%
19,5%
25,5%
,
80,5%
,
75,1%
0,6%
0,9%
100,0% 100,0%
Due to suppliers
12,3%
11,7%
33,0%
35,2%
Other debts
3,1%
7,6%
Total debts
48,3% 54,5%
6,3%
4,1%
0,1%
0,1%
2,5%
2,1%
42,8% 39,3%
Note: You can
compare
“relative”
values
horizontally
even if the set
of companies
available
decreases from
2007 to
t 2008
75,0%
75,5%
81,2%
50,0%
Total Fixed Assets
25,0%
24 5%
24,5%
0,0%
2007
18 8%
18,8%
2008
100,0%
75,0%
42,8%
39,3%
50,0%
,
25,0%
0,0%
Total Liabilities
57,2%
2007
60,7%
2008
168