An Application of Spatial Techniques to Audience Measurement Data

The Power of the Latitude and Longitude:
An Application of Spatial Techniques to
Audience Measurement Data
SORA Business Analytics Seminar
May 2013
Derrick Gray, P.Stat.
Ricardo Gomez-Insausti, Ph.D.
BBM Canada
©2013 BBM Canada
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2
BBM Canada: Background
Electronic Audience Measurement
Data Types
Basic Overview of Spatial Statistics
Data-ViU: An Application of Spatial Techniques
©2013 BBM Canada
SORA Business Analytics Seminar
BBM CANADA: BACKGROUND
3
©2013 BBM Canada
Who is BBM Canada?
• BBM Canada, Sondage BBM in Quebec, is a not
for profit, member-owned tripartite industry
organization, which has been operating since 1944
• BBM Canada provides broadcast measurement
and consumer behaviour data, as well as industryleading intelligence to broadcasters, advertisers
and agencies through the use of sophisticated
data tracking and measurement technologies and
services
4
©2013 BBM Canada
National Top 10 TV Programs: Week of
May 6-12, 2013
Rank
Program
Broadcast
Outlet
Weekday
Start
End
Total 2+
AMA
(000)
1
BIG BANG THEORY
CTV Total
…T…
20:00
20:31
3,117
2
NHL PLAYOFFS ROUND 1
CBC Total
MTWTF.S
18:59
21:57
2,935
3
TWO AND A HALF MEN
CTV Total
…T…
20:31
21:00
2,216
4
NCIS
Global Total
.T…..
20:00
21:00
2,128
5
SURVIVOR: CARAMOAN
Global Total
..W…S
20:00
21:00
1,785
6
GREY’S ANATOMY
CTV Total
…T…
21:00
22:00
1,735
7
NCIS: LOS ANGELES
Global Total
.T…..
21:00
22:00
1,616
8
SURVIVOR: CARAM.RERUN
Global Total
……S
22:00
23:00
1,602
9
C.S.I.
CTV Total
..W….
22:00
23:00
1,548
10
HAWAII FIVE-O
Global Total
M……
22:00
23:00
1,519
BBM Canada: Total Canada, P2+, May 6-12, 2-13
5
©2013 BBM Canada
Toronto Radio Market Rankings: Nov
26, 2012 to Feb 24, 2013
November 26, 2012 – Feb 24, 2013
Average Daily Universe: 5,755,000
6
Rank
Call
Letters
Station
1
CHFIFM
CHFI
16.9
5,320.6
1,108.3
2
CHUMFM
CHUM FM
10.5
4,790.4
797.7
3
CBLAFM
CBC Radio One
10.0
1,808.9
436.7
4
CFTR
CFTR
6.5
3,160.5
651.6
5
CKFMFM
99-9 Virgin Radio
6.3
4,611.6
748.7
6
CFRB
CFRB
5.8
1,150.6
283.7
6
CILQFM
Q107
5.8
2,918.8
459.3
8
CHBMFM
boom 97.3
4.8
4,344.3
500.2
9
CFMZF+
The New Classical 96.3 FM
4.7
2,132.4
269.3
10
CKISFM
KiSS 92.5
3.7
3,529.1
512.9
©2013 BBM Canada
Share
(%)
Cume
(000)
Daily Cume
(000)
BBM Corporate Structure
BBM CANADA
100%
BBM
ANALYTICS INC
7
©2013 BBM Canada
THE NIELSEN
COMPANY
100% BBM Voting
Shares
BBM
ELECTRONIC
INC
100% Non-Voting
Shares
BBM Canada Research Department
VP, Research
Research &
Development
Methodology
Qualitative
Research
Project
Management
Research on
Research
8
©2013 BBM Canada
Statistical Research
/ Research
Operations
Sample Design &
Control
Survey Calibration
Geographical
Design
Statistical Analysis
Spatial Analysis
Call Centre
Market Research
Division
BBM Analytics
SORA Business Analytics Seminar
ELECTRONIC AUDIENCE
MEASUREMENT
9
©2013 BBM Canada
Overview
• The Portable People Meter is a cell-phone-sized
device with built-in motion detection
• It automatically captures inaudible codes
embedded in the audio of the television and radio
signals
• Codes are recorded and time stamped by
the meter every 15 seconds
• Station with the most codes within a minute is credited
with that tuning and each minute is allocated to either
television or radio
• Time/date stamps allow BBM to differentiate between
live and playback viewing
10
©2013 BBM Canada
How the PPM works
• Codes are embedded into the audio at the source using
encoders provided by BBM: approximately 500 TV stations
and 230 radio stations are currently encoded!
• All permanent residents within the selected household are
assigned a PPM
• Bluetooth devices emit a beacon signal which determines
whether viewing occurs in or out of the home. If the PPM
“hears” this beacon, viewing is attributed to in-home
• Approximately 13% of TV viewing and 50% of radio tuning
happens outside the home*
• At the end of the day, the PPM transmits data to BBM via
cellular technology
*Source: PPM, Aug 30/10 – Aug 28/11, Total Canada, 2+, AMA(000)
11
©2013 BBM Canada
The PPM System in Action
12
©2013 BBM Canada
PPM Market Samples
MONTREAL
TORONTO
VANCOUVER
CALGARY
EDMONTON
900
Homes
Total
800
Homes
Total
672
Homes
Total
529
Homes
Total
565
Homes
Total
800
Radio
600
Radio
450
Radio
400
Radio
400
Radio
An Additional 1,004 Homes Round
out the Television Panels
(Ont Bal., Quebec Bal. Fr., Que
Anglo, Atlantic/Prairie/Western Bal.)
13
©2013 BBM Canada
National panel of 4,470 households
or approximately 11,000+ people
Toronto/Hamilton EM
14
©2013 BBM Canada
Vancouver/Victoria EM
15
©2013 BBM Canada
PPM Methodology – 4 Steps
Step
Step1:
1:Panel
Panel
Development
Development
Step
2: Panel
Step
2: Panel
Management
Management
Step 3: Panel
Step Assessment
3: Panel
Assessment
Step
4: 4:
Delivery
Step
Deliv
of product
product
Panel Design
Establishment
Survey*
Recruitment*
Install
Run-in Period
Into
Production
Editing
Weighting*
In-Tab
Program
Schedules
Data Delivery
*further details on these steps follow
16
©2013 BBM Canada
BBM Canada Establishment Survey
• The Establishment Survey is a large scale monthly telephone
survey
• All telephone numbers are generated using Random B list
assisted Random Digit Dialing (RDD)
• RDD allows the capturing of both Directory Listed Landline
Homes (~85% of Landline Homes) and capturing of Directory
Not Listed Landline Homes (~15% of Landline Homes)
• Sampling frame is further enhanced to include Mobile only
homes (12.8% of Canadian Households and 9.9% of Canadian
Individuals*)
• Overall frame coverage is 98.9% of Canadian Households and
99.3% of Canadian Individuals*
*Statistics Canada, RTSS (2010)
17
©2013 BBM Canada
BBM Canada Establishment Survey
continued
• Establishment Survey
• Approximately 50,000 homes are called each month
• The households which complete the survey form the Random
probability sample frame of households for later recruitment
• The Sample frame is designed to include private households
with a landline or mobile-only and individuals who have
television and radio access
• Questions are limited to those which are required for weighting
or panel balancing
• The Establishment Survey is a Household survey meaning all
questions must be for household variables
Information obtained includes limited personal information (official language, age & gender, hours
worked) and household information such as radio/TV equipment, reception type, broadcast provider,
internet access
18
©2013 BBM Canada
Panel Control / Recruitment
• Recruitment to the panel is stratified to ensure the panel is
as representative of possible to the Canadian population
• Candidates are randomly selected from the Establishment
Survey (ES) sample frame based on a set of control
variables / strata
• These variables are known key contributors to influence
different viewing patterns
• PPM Panels are multi-media panels (Radio and TV)
• Control variables must meet the needs of both media
Radio and TV
Variables
•Geography
•Household Size
•Presence of demos
•Household Moved
19
©2013 BBM Canada
Radio only Variables
•Working Status of
Secondary Head of
Household
TV only Variables
•Reception Type
Panel Calibration
• Since not every member of the panel will be intab
in a given day, the data is calibrated (poststratified) to correct for any imbalances
• Panel Calibration is done using Raking Ratio
Estimators using an algorithm called Iterative
Proportionate Fit (Deming and Stephan (1940))
• Can also be viewed as a special case of calibration
using the Exponential Method. In this case the
Newton-Raphson method is needed to solve.
Deming, J.-C. and Stephan, C.-E. (1940). On least squares adjustment of a
sampled frequency table when expected marginal totals are known, Annals of
Mathematical Statistics, 11, 427-444.
20
©2013 BBM Canada
Raking Ration Estimators
•
21
©2013 BBM Canada
Raking Ratio Estimators Continued
• Remarks on Raking Ratio Estimators
• Always yield positive weights
• May yield extremely large positive weights
• It is possible to impose bounds (add constraints) on
the weights
In the case of BBM Canada:
• TV Data is calibrated to:
• Age-Sex, Reception Type, Household Size,
Geography
• Radio Data is calibrated to:
• Age-Sex, Geography
22
©2013 BBM Canada
SORA Business Analytics Seminar
DATA TYPES
23
©2013 BBM Canada
BBM Data is Big Data
24
©2013 BBM Canada
BBM Data is Longitudinal Data
Longitudinal Data
•
•
•
•
•
•
Panelists can remain in the panel for up to
approximately a maximum of five years
Data is granular to the minute (1,440 minutes per
day)
Data is captured 7 days a week
Binary observation (1,0) for every encoded station
Additional data appended to each observation to
indicate if tuning was live vs. playback, in-home vs.
out-of-home
Each panelists answers a series of qualitative
questions (industry, occupation, education, etc)
730 stations x 1,440 minutes x 365 days = up to 383.7 million
observations per panelist per year!!!!
25
©2013 BBM Canada
BBM Data is Spatial Data
Spatial Data
•
Every Panelists has an assigned FSA LDU which
allows for a Latitudinal and Longitudinal coordinate
•
•
•
•
26
©2013 BBM Canada
Currently the FSA LDU of the panelists home is
captured
Future plans will also capture the FSA LDU of the
panelist’s place of work (if applicable)
This FSA LDU also maps to geo-demographic
segmentation (Modified Environics Analytics
PRIZM_C2)
Data can also be overlaid with data from other
sources such as Statistics Canada Census Data
SORA Business Analytics Seminar
BASIC OVERVIEW OF
SPATIAL STATISTICS
27
©2013 BBM Canada
What is Spatial Data?
Data which represents
objects defined in a
geometric space. This data
can be one of many data
types:
• Points
• Lines
• Polygons
• Surfaces
28
©2013 BBM Canada
What are Spatial Statistics?
There are many types of spatial analysis including, but not
limited to:
• Spatial Data Analysis
• e.g., Factor Analysis or Principal Component Analysis
• Spatial Autocorrelation
• The degree of dependency among observations in
geographic space
• Spatial Regression
• Capturing of spatial dependency in regression analysis
• Spatial Interaction
• Estimation of flows between geographic locations
• Spatial Interpolation
• Estimation of the variables at unobserved locations
• Spatial Diffusion Models
• Estimation of spread through communications hubs
29
©2013 BBM Canada
The flow map of Napoleon’s ill-fated
march on Moscow
30
©2013 BBM Canada
Spread of the Bubonic Plague in Europe
31
©2013 BBM Canada
Spatial Interpolation
• Spatial Interpolation is useful for BBM Canada as it
allows us to infer tuning/viewing for unobserved
respondents in the market
• There are many methods to interpolate data including:
•
•
•
•
•
32
Kriging
Inverse Distance Weighting
Nearest Neighbour
Cubic Splining
Polynomial regression
©2013 BBM Canada
SORA Business Analytics Seminar
DATA-ViU: AN APPLICATION
OF SPATIAL TECHNIQUES
33
©2013 BBM Canada
Data-ViU: Radio Listening Example
Visualization
• Radio Listening data from the Toronto’s PPM panel classified in quintiles
• Overlay with census data or any other proprietary
data
• Any stored locational data from Google Earth Pro
can be added
• Example: Radio Format Group -Rock/Classic/Modern/
Alternative/Mainstream Rock/etc. (link to Google Earth
Pro) Demo Web site
34
©2013 BBM Canada