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Radiators and underfloor heating Norway World heating 2012 A multi client study By Marek Kurza June 2012 Radiators and underfloor heating Norway A multi client study Contract: Report 55384/53 Date: June 2012 Issued by: BSRIA Limited Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH UK Telephone: +44 (0)1344 465600 Fax: +44 (0)1344 465626 E: [email protected] W: www.bsria.co.uk Compiled by: Approved by: Name: Marek Kurza Name: Krystyna Dawson All rights reserved. This document may not be reproduced, transmitted or redistributed in part or full without prior written consent from a BSRIA Director © BSRIA Page 3 of 22 Report 55384/53 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING CONTENTS CONTENTS 1 MARKET BACKGROUND OVERVIEW ........................................................................................ 6 1.1 1.1.1 1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.1.4 1.2 2 MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION...................................................................................... 11 2.1 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.3 3 Trends ...............................................................................................................................16 Forecast assumptions.......................................................................................................16 STRUCTURE OF SUPPLY ......................................................................................................... 18 4.1 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.2 5 Market size .......................................................................................................................11 Technical segmentation by type of radiator ......................................................................12 Steel radiators .................................................................................................................. 12 Steel panel radiators ........................................................................................................ 12 Towel warmer radiators ................................................................................................... 12 Cast iron radiators and aluminium radiators .................................................................... 12 Underfloor heating ............................................................................................................12 MARKET TRENDS ..................................................................................................................... 16 3.1 3.2 4 Economy and construction .................................................................................................6 Population and climate .......................................................................................................7 Economy .............................................................................................................................7 Construction ........................................................................................................................7 Energy supply .....................................................................................................................8 Residential electricity supply ..............................................................................................9 Local heating practices .....................................................................................................10 Radiators ..........................................................................................................................18 Steel panel radiators ........................................................................................................ 18 Towel warmer radiators ................................................................................................... 18 Underfloor heating ............................................................................................................19 DISTRIBUTION AND END USER SECTOR .............................................................................. 20 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3.1 5.3.2 5.3.3 5.4 © BSRIA Overview ...........................................................................................................................20 Distribution of radiators and underfloor heating ...............................................................20 Distributor profiles .............................................................................................................21 Onninen ........................................................................................................................... 21 Brodrene Dahl International A/B ...................................................................................... 21 Ahlsell .............................................................................................................................. 21 End user sector .................................................................................................................22 Page 4 of 22 Report 55384/53 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING CONTENTS TABLES Table 1 Background data economy and construction, 2009-2012 .......................................................... 6 Table 2 Norway residential construction by type, 2007-2013(f), in ‘000 ................................................. 8 Table 3 Volume and value of the radiators and underfloor heating market, 2010 and 2011e .............. 11 Table 4 Steel radiator market, volume, 2010 and 2011e ...................................................................... 12 Table 5 Underfloor heating market, volume, 2010 and 2011e .............................................................. 13 Table 6 Underfloor heating market by type of pipe material, volume, 2010 and 2011e ....................... 13 Table 7 Underfloor heating market by pipe diameter, volume, 2010 and 2011e .................................. 14 Table 8 Underfloor heating market by radiator equivalent, volume, 2010 ............................................ 14 Table 9 Underfloor heating market by radiator equivalent, volume, 2011 ............................................ 15 Table 10 Radiator and underfloor heating market historical trends, volume (‘000 units), 2006-2010 .. 16 Table 11 Radiator and underfloor heating market forecast, volume (‘000 units), 2011-2015 ............... 16 Table 12 Market shares for steel panel radiators, 2010 and 2011e ...................................................... 18 Table 13 Market shares for towel warmer radiators, 2010 and 2011e .................................................. 18 Table 14 Market shares for underfloor heating, volume (million metres), 2010 and 2011e .................. 19 Table 15 First point of distribution for manufacturers/importers, 2011e ................................................ 20 Table 16 Major heating products distributors – radiator and underfloor brands, 2011 ......................... 20 Table 17 Radiators and underfloor heating market by end user sector, 2011e .................................... 22 FIGURES Figure 1 Map of Norway .......................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 2 Radiator and underfloor heating sales by type, value (€ million), 2011e ................................ 11 Figure 3 Underfloor heating market by type of pipe material, volume, 2011e ...................................... 13 Figure 4 Radiator market forecast, volume (‘000 units), 2011-2015 ..................................................... 17 Figure 5 Underfloor market forecast, volume (million metres), 2011-2015 ........................................... 17 Figure 6 Market shares for steel panel radiators, 2011e ....................................................................... 18 Figure 7 Market shares for towel warmer radiators, 2011e ................................................................... 19 Figure 8 Market shares for underfloor heating, volume (‘000 metres), 2011e ...................................... 19 Figure 9 First point of distribution, radiators and underfloor heating, 2011e ......................................... 20 © BSRIA Page 5 of 22 Report 55384/53 Radiators and underfloor heating Romania World heating 2012 A multi client study By Richard Bejlek June 2012 Radiators and underfloor heating Romania A multi client study Contract: Report 55384/61 Date: June 2012 Issued by: BSRIA Limited Old Bracknell Lane West, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 7AH UK Telephone: +44 (0)1344 465600 Fax: +44 (0)1344 465626 E: [email protected] W: www.bsria.co.uk Compiled by: Approved by: Name: Richard Bejlek Name: Krystyna Dawson All rights reserved. This document may not be reproduced, transmitted or redistributed in part or full without prior written consent from a BSRIA Director © BSRIA Page 3 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING CONTENTS CONTENTS 1 MARKET BACKGROUND OVERVIEW ........................................................................................ 6 1.1 1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.1.4 1.1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3.1 1.3.2 1.3.3 1.3.4 2 MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION...................................................................................... 14 2.1 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.2.5 2.3 3 Trends ...............................................................................................................................20 Forecast assumptions.......................................................................................................21 STRUCTURE OF SUPPLY ......................................................................................................... 23 4.1 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.1.4 4.1.5 4.2 5 Market size .......................................................................................................................14 Technical segmentation by type of radiator ......................................................................15 Steel radiators .................................................................................................................. 15 Steel panel radiators ........................................................................................................ 15 Towel warmer radiators ................................................................................................... 16 Cast iron radiators ........................................................................................................... 16 Aluminium radiators ......................................................................................................... 16 Underfloor heating ............................................................................................................16 MARKET TRENDS ..................................................................................................................... 20 3.1 3.2 4 Economy and construction .................................................................................................6 Population and climate .......................................................................................................6 Economy .............................................................................................................................7 Construction ........................................................................................................................7 New house building ............................................................................................................8 Energy supply .....................................................................................................................8 Heating stock ....................................................................................................................10 Local heating practices .....................................................................................................11 District heating ................................................................................................................. 11 Commercial / collective heating ....................................................................................... 12 Individual central heating ................................................................................................. 12 Conversions ..................................................................................................................... 12 Radiators ..........................................................................................................................23 Steel panel radiators ........................................................................................................ 23 Towel warmer radiators ................................................................................................... 24 Other steel radiators ........................................................................................................ 25 Aluminium radiators ......................................................................................................... 25 Cast iron radiators ........................................................................................................... 26 Underfloor heating ............................................................................................................27 DISTRIBUTION AND END USER SECTOR .............................................................................. 29 5.1 5.2 5.2.1 5.3 © BSRIA Overview ...........................................................................................................................29 Distribution of radiators and underfloor heating ...............................................................29 Distributor profiles ............................................................................................................ 31 End user sector .................................................................................................................32 Page 4 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING CONTENTS TABLES Table 1 Background data economy and construction, 2009-2012 .......................................................... 6 Table 2 Heating stock by type of heating product ................................................................................. 10 Table 3 Room heating by type of heating product ................................................................................ 10 Table 4 Heating by source in Bucharest ............................................................................................... 11 Table 5 The district heating system in Bucharest.................................................................................. 12 Table 6 Volume and value of the radiators and underfloor heating market, 2010 and 2011e .............. 14 Table 7 Steel radiator market, volume, 2010 and 2011e ...................................................................... 15 Table 8 Underfloor heating market, volume, 2010 and 2011e .............................................................. 16 Table 9 Underfloor heating market by type of pipe material, volume, 2010 and 2011e ....................... 16 Table 10 Underfloor heating market by pipe diameter, volume, 2010 and 2011e ................................ 17 Table 11 Underfloor heating market by radiator equivalent, volume, 2010 .......................................... 18 Table 12 Underfloor heating market by radiator equivalent, volume, 2011 .......................................... 19 Table 13 Radiator and underfloor heating market historical trends, volume (‘000 units), 2006-2010 .. 21 Table 14 Radiator and underfloor heating market forecast, volume (‘000 units), 2011-2015 ............... 22 Table 15 Market shares for steel panel radiators, 2010 and 2011e ...................................................... 23 Table 16 Market shares for towel warmer radiators, 2010 and 2011e .................................................. 24 Table 17 Market shares for aluminium radiators, 2010 and 2011e ....................................................... 25 Table 18 Market shares for cast iron radiators, 2010 and 2011e.......................................................... 26 Table 19 Market shares for underfloor heating, volume (million metres), 2010 and 2011e .................. 28 Table 20 First point of distribution for manufacturers/importers, 2011e ................................................ 29 Table 21 Major heating products distributors, 2011 .............................................................................. 30 Table 22 Major heating products distributors – radiator and underfloor brands, 2011 ......................... 30 Table 23 Radiators and underfloor heating market by end user sector, 2011e .................................... 32 FIGURES Figure 1 Map of Romania ........................................................................................................................ 6 Figure 2 Radiator and underfloor heating sales by type, value (€ million), 2011e ................................ 15 Figure 3 Underfloor heating market by type of pipe material, volume, 2011e ...................................... 17 Figure 4 Radiator market forecast, volume (‘000 units), 2011-2015 ..................................................... 22 Figure 5 Underfloor market forecast, volume (million metres), 2011-2015 ........................................... 22 Figure 6 Market shares for steel panel radiators, 2011e ....................................................................... 24 Figure 7 Market shares for towel warmer radiators, 2011e ................................................................... 25 Figure 8 Market shares for aluminium radiators, 2011e ........................................................................ 26 Figure 9 Market shares for cast iron radiators, 2011e .......................................................................... 27 Figure 10 Market shares for underfloor heating, volume (‘000 metres), 2011e .................................... 28 Figure 11 First point of distribution, radiators and underfloor heating, 2011e ....................................... 29 © BSRIA Page 5 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING 1 ROMANIA MARKET BACKGROUND OVERVIEW Figure 1 Map of Romania Source: www.cia.gov 1.1 ECONOMY AND CONSTRUCTION Table 1 Background data economy and construction, 2009-2012 Units 2009 2010 2011(e) 2012(f) 21.5 21.5 21.4 21.3 Population Million GDP € bn 117.5 122 130.2 133.4 GDP per capita (ppp) € 5,467 5,675 6,074 6,248 Inflation % 4.7% 8.0% 3.5% 4.5% Unemployment % 6.3% 7.6% 7.7% 7.5% Construction output Euro bn 11.7 10.1 10.4 Number of households Million 8.4 8.4 8.4 New dwellings (completions) Thousands 61.1 48.8 44.5 Residential Euro bn 2.18 1.4 Non-residential Euro bn 8.87 7.65 Civil Engineering Source: BSRIA Euro bn 6.58 6.36 1.1.1 Population and climate Romania is a mountainous country: about 31% of its surface is covered by mountains, 33% by hills and tablelands. The rest is plains. The main mountain ridge is the Carpathian Mountains. Romania's warm summers and cold winters define a temperate-continental climate. The average temperatures are between -3° and 5°C in January and between 22°C and 24°C in July. Significantly cooler temperatures prevail at all seasons in the mountains; the warmest areas in summer are the Walachian plain and Dobrogea. © BSRIA Page 6 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA The area of Romania is 91,699 square miles (237,500 km²) and its population is about 21.4 million: mainly Romanian, alongside Hungarian, German and Gypsy minorities. About 55% of Romania's inhabitants live in urban areas. The population is decreasing as the birth rate has been falling since 1989. The capital, Bucharest, is the largest city with about 2 million inhabitants. Other cities with populations of more than 300,000 are Brasov, Cluj-Napoca, Constanta, Craiova, Galati, Iasi and Timisoara. The population is the densest around Bucharest and Ploiesti, along the Siret Valley in Moldavia, and in the Transylvanian lowlands. There is a big disparity between big cities such as Bucharest, which partly feature Western consumption standards, and rural areas, which are predominantly agricultural. 1.1.2 Economy At the time of EU entry in 2007, Romania lagged behind existing members economically and in other aspects. The financial crisis and economic recession even widened the gap. Corruption, slow judiciary system, need for budget reforms, poor state of infrastructure, unfinished privatisation of state-owned enterprises and huge regional disparities in living standards are aspects that Romania has to tackle. The Romanian economy fell deeply into recession in 2009 as real GDP contracted by 7.1%. 2010 was a second year of recession as the Romanian economy slipped again by 1.3%. Officially, Romania returned back to growth in September 2010. Overall, in 2011 the Romanian economy grew by solid 2.6%. However, some analysts expect a growth only between 0.5% and 1.2% in 2012 due to the austerity program of the Romanian government on one hand and the situation in Greece on the other. The automotive industry (and especially the successful model Dacia Duster) has been the main growth drivers. Moreover, Ford Motors launched a production of a B-Max model in its plant in Craiova. In mid to long-term, it is expected Romania would outperform the rest of the CEE/SEE region in terms of economic growth unless structural reforms are dropped and the country sinks in chaos. As far as external financing is concerned, the financial support coming from the IMF and the EU, was provided to Romania since 2009, guarantees the country’s external liquidity. On the other hand, the IMF demands performing reform steps, notably privatisation of the inefficient Romanian state owned companies, removal of subsidies to heating for households and fight against corruption. The program has been almost fulfilled, although political risks are high. There has been a political turmoil towards the end of 2011, eventually leading to two quick government changes only during Q1 2012. A very important geopolitical decision was made by the Romania in the spring 2011: the Parliament approved stationing of US Army’s antimissile shield at Deveselu base near Caracal. This move substantially reduces country risk of Romania, at least for the American investors. Further economic development in Romania depends mainly on external financing of both its current account deficit and the state budget deficit, on export demand, situation in Greece (that influences the whole Balkan region), and last but not least on the outcome of legislative elections that take place in November 2012. 1.1.3 Construction According to the National Institute of Statistics (INSSE), the value of construction works grew by 2.8% in 2011. Adjusted for working days, the index rose by 1.1%. In detail, INSSE reported a decline of residential construction (adjusted series) by 3.3%, non-residential buildings were 8.7% up and civil engineering was flat (0.8%) in 2011. © BSRIA Page 7 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING 1.1.4 ROMANIA New house building The total housing stock in Romania consists of 8.1 million dwellings. The condition of the houses is, however, far below Western European standards and many houses are in need of urgent renovation, especially blocks of flats in urban areas. Especially the large park of Soviet-style apartment blocks need renovation urgently. Moreover, many people relocate to cities where there are better (economic) living standards than in rural areas. This pushes demand higher. The Romanian real estate market was flying sky-high until 2008. Quickly growing domestic demand fuelled by rising wages and accessible mortgages (up to 100% of the value) pushed prices for land and apartments in Romanian cities much closer to Western European standards. This was mainly caused by short supply and lack of residential projects in blocks of flats. Banks offered very competitive conditions of mortgages and households opted for loans denominated in EUR or CHF rather than in the local currency (RON), as interest rates on the local currency were far too high. That however exposed the debtors to an excessive exchange rate risk and the consequent RON depreciation imposed a big burden on households’ budgets. Hence the number of new dwelling completions was soaring rapidly during 2005-08, and new dwellings were mostly completed in family houses. During the boom years, the local real estate developers concentrated on the high end of construction (offices and luxury family houses), however the market has been changing during 2006-2008 and more affordable dwellings in the middle segment came to the market. As the crisis hit Romania, local banks stopped financing, and real estate prices rapidly plummeted. In order to mitigate the crisis effects, the government introduced a subsidy programs “First Home” and “First Home 2” which should facilitate young families to purchase a residential property, or to take a mortgage. The programs however, had only little significant impact on the real estate market and new housing construction so far. INSSE reported again falling number of building permits issued during 2011. There were 39,424 building permits issued for residential buildings, which is 6.5% below 2010. Out of this number, family houses made 38,116 (2,610 less than 2010) and there were 1,308 blocks of flats permitted. In total, 49,206 dwellings (6,079 less than 2010) were permitted to be built in both family houses and multi-dwelling buildings. The declines of permits suggest the revival of residential construction is still far ahead. Dwelling completions also declined in 2011 when they were estimated at 44,456 units, which is 9% down against 2010 and 27% down against 2009 when 61,100 housing units were completed. 1.1.5 Energy supply Overview In primary energy consumption the share of coal has decreased in the past decade, due to declining coal extraction, and has been overtaken by natural gas and oil. Romania has one nuclear power plant, designed to produce electric energy in 5 reactors. Each one can produce about one tenth of the actual national consumption. Out of the 5 reactors, Unit 1 and 2 are online; Unit 3 and 4 are in the planning stage with completion envisaged for 2014-15. In Romania there are also 124 large hydro power plants and 222 smaller ones. The biggest ones (Iron Gates I and II) are located on the Danube River and most of the smaller ones in mountain areas. There are two regional gas distributors (Distrigaz Sud Bucharest and Distrigaz Nord Targu-Mures). Distrigaz Sud was acquired by Gaz de France and Distrigaz Nord by Ruhr Gas at the end of 2004. © BSRIA Page 8 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA There are eight regional electricity distributors: Muntenia North and South, Transilvania North and South, Moldova, Oltenia, Banat and Dobrogea. Electrica Oltenia was privatised by the Czech electricity supplier CEZ and Electrica Moldova by the German E.ON. Electrica Muntenia South and also Banat and Dobrogea were bought by Italian company Enel. Residential gas supply Romania is able to supply the majority of its natural gas from local sources and the rest is imported from Russia. In 2005, out of the total number of dwellings in Romania, about 1,900,000 were connected to gas mains. A gasification programme is under way, although the number of new households connected is growing very moderately. Bottled gas is being used in around 2.6 million dwellings (32% of the total), normally for gas cooking rather than gas heating. According to Romania's economy ministry, Romania imports 35% of annual gas consumption from Russia, the rest is extracted domestically. This proved to be crucial during the early 2009 gas war between Russia and Ukraine when all supplies to the SEE region were shut. Domestic fuel and electricity prices An independent regulatory body (ANRE) in Romania currently regulates natural piped gas and electricity prices. There is an ongoing privatisation programme for the domestic energy distributors, both gas and electricity. Energy prices are one of the main drivers for the heating market in Romania. These have been gradually increasing, especially for residential consumers, as for this customer category tariffs are still subsidized (mainly gas). Gas prices for households were about half price compared to the new EU members in Central Europe even back to 2004 but prices have been increasing rapidly since then. Gas price regulation scheme has changed in order to reflect the real market gas prices. In April, 1st, 2005 an excise duty of around € 0.3/MWh on electric energy was introduced. The tax complies with the EU legislation and Romania is thus far advanced in its introduction from all the CEE countries. Gas price has been rising quickly between 2005 and 2008. Gas price for households rose in total by around 30% throughout 2008. As a result of the hikes, gas price for households (tariff B1 incl. 24% VAT) reached 119 RON/MWh in early 2011 and in fact remained so also in 2012. This is still somewhat below pricing in deregulated markets of some CEE countries (e.g. Czech and Slovak Republics). Given the rise of fossil energy on the markets, it is expected Gazprom will increase sales price for Romania in 2012-13. The district heating system is still being subsidised from the state and municipalities. Since January 2009, part of the subsidies has been removed and thus prices per Gcal increased rapidly in some regions. Gigacalorie price varies across regions, depending on the number of subscribers and the local subsidies - from RON 124 in Bucuresti or Oradea until over RON 200 in Suceava. Heating price in Bucuresti (supplied by Radet) is thus one of the lowest in the country. The true cost of thermal energy in the district heating system ranges however between 225 up to 512 RON/Gcal in some regions. The gap is subsidised by the state and local budgets. One of the conditions of IMF is to remove the subsidies and finally the government agreed to do so until the end of August 2011. However at the time of writing, many towns still were subsidising district heating including the capital Bucharest. The regulator ANRSC calculated direct cost of Gcal of the supplier Radet at RON 318, whereas the valid household tariff is only RON 170. The difference is covered from the municipality budget. © BSRIA Page 9 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA District heating prices will hence see dramatic hikes, most probably in 2013. It is not probable in 2012 since general elections take place in November 2012. District heating price increases in the past led to massive flight to individual gas boilers. This will again very probably drive many households to leave the system and install individual central heating (i.e. wall hung gas boiler). During the gas crisis in early 2009, however the district heating system proved to be less vulnerable to gas shutdowns as most gas-fired plants (CET) were able to switch to heavy oil in case of necessity. Although electricity prices are already relatively high, there is still room for further increase. The environmental efforts within energy policy resulted in 9% obligatory purchase of “green energy” for companies. Moreover, Romania committed itself to produce 38% of energy by renewable resources by 2020. 1.2 HEATING STOCK The table below is based on 2002 census. Since the Romanian Statistical Office (INSSE) did not split data between district and collective (block) heating, the figure above includes both. Although heating systems in many dwellings have been upgraded to central heating since 2002, room heating nowadays still represents the largest segment of the heating stock. Despite the lack of reliable data, the boiler companies estimate there were around 2 million boilers in about 8.4 million dwellings in 2011. Table 2 Heating stock by type of heating product ‘000 dwellings % 2,485.3 30.7% 417.5 5.2% Individual central heating oil 10.0 0.1% Individual central heating solid fuel 35.4 0.4% 0.0 0.0% Type of heating District heating (> 600 kW) Collective heating (60-600 kW) Individual central heating gas Individual central heating others Total individual central heating Room heating / other heating 462.9 5.7% 5,159.0 63.6% 0.0 0.0% 8,107.1 100.0% No heating Total Source: BSRIA based on industry sources INSSE further splits the category “room heating/other heating” as follows: Table 3 Room heating by type of heating product Number of dwellings 692,754 % 13.4% Solid fuel stove 4,249,747 82.4% Liquid fuel (oil) 19,058 0.4% 197,402 3.8% 5,158,961 100.0% Type of heating Gas space heater Other means of heating Total Source: BSRIA based on industry sources © BSRIA Page 10 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING 1.3 LOCAL HEATING PRACTICES 1.3.1 District heating ROMANIA District heating represents the main means of heat and warm water supply in urban areas in Romania. Under the communist regime, district heating was preferred to individual central heating. The golden era of district heating installations was in the 1970s and 1980s. As a result, dwellings in blocks of flats are mainly heated by large district heating companies. The network is not expanding any further, and is unreliable, inefficient and expensive to maintain and run. Recently, measures were taken that each group of blocks has its own heat meter, however meters were not installed everywhere so far. The unreliability and high costs of the district heating system represent the main driver for households to convert to individual central heating, based on a wall hung gas boiler. RADET is the main district heating company in Bucharest, providing heating and hot water to 600,000 apartments and 1.2 million inhabitants out of a total of over 2 million. It is also the sole supplier to 5,450 institutions and legal persons. Since the heat is subsidised for households, budgetary subventions have been ever increasing. This is however not conforming to the EU legislation and subsidies are to be removed. Table 4 Heating by source in Bucharest District heating % 70% Central heating 3% Collective heating 4% Block heating 5% Room heating 18% Source: BSRIA based on Romanian Statistical Office The district heating system is heated by 9 heating plants (CET) distributed all over Bucharest. The biggest are CET South (42% share) and CET West (20% share). It is considered that Bucharest has a need of 4,300Gcal/h. The heating plants have a maximum capacity of 5,500 Gcal/h, but the system produces only 3,800 Gcal/h. RADET’s principal network has 524 km, while the secondary network has 853 km. Most of this network is inefficient and unreliable; the average age of the parts of the system is 25 years. The whole Romanian district-heating sector is currently in a state of change. A lot of regional district heating companies have collapsed – and more are likely to follow. The main reason is widespread disconnection by households. Customers who can afford convert to individual central heating (wall hung gas boilers) since it offers higher temperature comfort and reliability. Customers who face ever increasing prices of district heating, that they are not able to cover, also disconnect. Such clients usually stop paying heating bills and switch over to simple gas room heaters to keep in wintertime the usual room temperature only in one or two rooms. © BSRIA Page 11 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Table 5 The district heating system in Bucharest Plant Available capacity Gcal/h Share % Year of completion CET Sud 1,620 42% 1965 CET Vest 760 20% 1973 CET Progresu 600 16% 1987 CET Grozavesti 540 14% 1961 CET Titan CET Nusco 120 90 3% 1963 2% 1995 CET Griro 37 >1% 1997 CET Casa Presei 12 <1% 100% 1971 Total Source: BSRIA based on Romanian Statistical Office 1.3.2 3,779 Commercial / collective heating In the present housing stock, collective heating is not widespread; dwellings heated by district heating far outnumber those connected to collective heating. However, given the condition of the present district heating system and its technical problems, collective heating is preferred to district heating in new construction. At the moment, collective heating is mainly installed in commercial properties, as both new blocks of flats and family houses are heated by individual central heating (wall hung gas boilers). 1.3.3 Individual central heating In Romania individual central heating systems are mainly installed in new built dwellings. Almost 90% of new houses built have individual central heating, gas being the prominent fuel in urban areas. Solid fuel individual central heating systems are very popular in rural and mountainous areas. Solid fuel room heating still represents a solution for many rural new dwellings. Wood and coal are widespread because they are easily available and are the cheapest heating fuels in the country. It is estimated around half of households heat with solid fuel in Romania. 1.3.4 Conversions One of the main issues on the Romanian heating market in the past several years have been always the conversions from district heating to individual central heating (called locally “debransarea”). The census in 2000 showed 2.49 million households connected to the district (and collective) heating. It is estimated that around 600-700,000 households have disconnected from the district heating system during the past 10 years. Disconnections were even more usual in the provinces rather than in Bucharest (the capital still had relatively cheap district heating in 2011 – as compared to other towns). The conversions were the main driver for the rapid increase in sales of domestic wall-hung boilers and radiators during 2001-2003 (“first wave”). The owners of flats switched from expensive and unreliable district heating systems to individual central heating. The “second wave” started in 2010 and is expected to reach the highest momentum in 2013. However, the former socialist government observed the conversions with disfavour, as the declining number of users could make the whole centralised system collapse. During 2004, the government launched several legislative projects to block the conversions based on more difficult permissions and on bureaucratic obstacles. The publicly announced government willingness to stop the conversions obviously created great uncertainty on the market. Law: Governmental Decision 933/2004 published in “Monitorul Oficial” 616/July 2004. The conversions (and hence sales of gas boilers) in 2005 and later years were stigmatised by this situation. © BSRIA Page 12 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA The government hence passed another law on district heating conversions (“Serviciului public de alimentare cu energie termica”, number 325/2006) in July 2006. The law stipulates that a household willing to disconnect from the district-heating network must seek approval from its neighbours, located horizontally as well as vertically in the building and is obliged to seek approval from an association of the condominium and to report the disconnection to the utilities. The law clearly blocked many households from converting from district heating to individual central heating since it is often difficult to find approvals from the association of condominiums or from the neighbours. The price differential between district heating and an own wall hung gas boiler is also very important for the final equation. At the time of writing heating cost with natural gas was much lower than the real cost of district heating in most towns; however with the subsidies district heating is still cheaper. It is likely that subsidy removal will lead to a wave of disconnections in towns. The following points are however to be considered when assessing the market potential for conversions: The 2012 is election year and thus regional politicians seeking re-election are not expected to stop subsidising district heating. The subsidy is paid from municipal budgets; A bylaw (“ordin”) of ANRSC 343/2010 was issued that households must pay for district heating even if these disconnect (30% in winter and 50% in the summer). The application in real life depends on the local authority and extends the payback period of a conversion; District heating companies (CET) are usually large companies, often owned by municipalities and regional politicians are not interested in their failure; Subsidy removal can have a devastating impact on households’ budgets. E.g. the price in Constanta rose from RON 170 to RON 338 per Gcal, in Targoviste from RON 290 to 430 per Gcal. © BSRIA Page 13 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING 2 ROMANIA MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION 2.1 MARKET SIZE The Romanian radiator market declined in 2011 by around 22% when all the segments including steel panels lost. One of the main demand drivers in Romania, which are now conversions from district heating to wall hung gas boilers, were in 2011 weaker than expected. Moreover, both residential and commercial construction was also sluggish. The expectations regarding conversions were not met in 2011 as the municipalities with the largest number of district heating customers kept paying the district heating subsidies to district heating companies. This mainly applies to Bucharest. Thus there was no immediate push for the households to disconnect from district heating in the main markets and the number of conversions fell against 2010. The 2011 radiator market is estimated at around 963,000 units. Sales of steel panels fell from 970,000 to around 760,000 units in 2011. Besides established brands, Romania is also flooded with low-cost radiator production from Turkey. Sales of underfloor heating followed the performance of radiators. The market fell from 1.65 million meters to around 1.4 million meters. It is to note that estimating the Romanian underfloor heating market is very difficult due to high share of plastic pipes used for radiator connection. The tables in this report however concern only pipes used for underfloor heating. The value relates to the pipes only, excluding materials (panels, insulants, manifolds, controls…) Table 6 Volume and value of the radiators and underfloor heating market, 2010 and 2011e 2010 2011e Value Volume € million Steel panel (incl. flat fronted) Other steel Aluminium Cast iron Towel warmers Value US$ million Volume € million US$ million '000 units 970.0 32.1 42.6 760.0 25.1 35.0 '000 units '000 units '000 units '000 units 20.0 102.0 25.0 124.0 1.4 6.0 2.0 4.5 1.9 8.0 2.6 6.0 15.0 75.0 13.0 100.0 1.1 4.5 1.0 3.7 1.5 6.3 1.4 5.1 '000 units 1,241.1 46.0 61.1 962.9 35.4 49.2 million metres 1.7 0.9 Underfloor heating Source: BSRIA Other steel includes: steel design radiators, sectional steel radiators Exchange rate: 2010: € 1 = US$ 1.33; 2011: € 1 = US$ 1.39 1.2 1.4 0.7 1.0 Total radiators © BSRIA Page 14 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Figure 2 Radiator and underfloor heating sales by type, value (€ million), 2011e Source: BSRIA 2.2 TECHNICAL SEGMENTATION BY TYPE OF RADIATOR 2.2.1 Steel radiators Romania is predominantly a market for steel panel radiators. Tubular radiators are less frequent, although a tiny market exists and it is gaining share. Romstal imports Ercos tubular radiators from Turkey, the Rettig Group also offers this type of product in Romania. Table 7 Steel radiator market, volume, 2010 and 2011e 2010 '000 units Steel panel Flat fronted Tubular (flat or round tube) Tubular multi-column Pressed Sectional steel column Others Total Source: BSRIA Others: Lamellar 2.2.2 970.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 990.0 % 98.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2011e '000 units 760.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 775.0 % 98.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Steel panel radiators The most popular type of steel panel unit is the double panel with double convector as they offer the best quality/price ratio. Single-panel-one-convector units are used mostly in other buildings and small rooms. The markets for single and triple panels exist but are small. There is more demand for top and bottom opposite-end connections than top and bottom same-end connections, mainly because the latter were widespread during the communist era and are not popular any longer. Most steel panels are sold without a thermostatic valve (the classic version) and it is estimated that around 30-40% (and increasingly more) are now sold in the compact version with a valve; however the TRV head is usually fitted separately by an installer. © BSRIA Page 15 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING 2.2.3 ROMANIA Towel warmer radiators Most towel warmers are made of steel with little market for coloured models as white accounts for the vast majority. Brass tube solutions are mainly designed to premium users. Aluminium towel warmers represent around a quarter of the market, supplied mainly by manufacturers of aluminium element radiators. 2.2.4 Cast iron radiators Once a standard in every house (column type), now cast iron has a modest market share. Panel type cast iron radiators are more frequently sold than column types. The radiators are installed almost entirely as a replacement for old cast iron radiators in dwellings heated by district heating. Steel panels are not very suitable for district heating due to the possibility of corrosion. 2.2.5 Aluminium radiators Aluminium radiators are predominantly cast. The aluminium radiator market is deprived by low prices of competing steel panels but it is expanding mainly in the replacement segment at the expense of cast iron radiators. 2.3 UNDERFLOOR HEATING Table 8 Underfloor heating market, volume, 2010 and 2011e Plastics pipe Copper pipe Total pipe Panels, insulants Manifolds, controls… Total Source: BSRIA 2010 Million US$ million metres 1.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.2 N/a 3.3 N/a 1.9 N/a 6.3 € million 0.9 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.4 4.8 2011e Million US$ million metres 1.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.0 N/a 3.0 N/a 1.7 N/a 5.7 € million 0.7 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.2 4.1 Table 9 Underfloor heating market by type of pipe material, volume, 2010 and 2011e 2010 Million metres Cross-linked polyethylene (PEX) Polybutylene (PB) Polypropylene (PP) Polyethylene (PE) PE raised temperature resistant (PE-RT) Composite pipe Other plastics Copper Total Source: BSRIA © BSRIA 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 Page 16 of 32 % 53.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 30.0% 0.0% 0.5% 100.0% 2011e Million metres 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 % 50.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 31.5% 0.0% 0.5% 100.0% Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Figure 3 Underfloor heating market by type of pipe material, volume, 2011e Source: BSRIA Table 10 Underfloor heating market by pipe diameter, volume, 2010 and 2011e 2010 Million metres < 15 mm 15 - 22 mm > 22 mm Total Source: BSRIA 0.1 1.4 0.1 1.7 % 6.0% 85.0% 9.0% 100.0% 2011e Million metres % 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.4 6.0% 85.0% 9.0% 100.0% The Romanian market for underfloor heating is a particularly difficult market to quantify since PEX and PEX-Al pipes are widely used to connect radiators and water mains. Suppliers themselves have limited knowledge about the split of pipe sales between radiator connections, sanitary installations and underfloor heating. There is also a large grey installer-driven market. The Romanian underfloor heating market is smaller compared to other countries in Western and Central Europe, although its dynamics has been remarkable. A large part of the market is unbranded, bundled together by the installers from various suppliers of components. The dominant material is plastic and thereof - cross-linked polyethylene (PEX), used by the market leaders. The other materials are less common, supplied by small suppliers. Underfloor heating is mostly used in the residential new housing (family houses), which is predominantly heated by condensing boilers. Table 9 shows a basic model that includes the main assumptions applied to illustrate the Romanian underfloor heating market. The following conclusions can be drawn up: - Estimated number of installations of underfloor heating systems (UHF) in Romania in 2011 (see K): ca. 1,700 systems; - Radiators-equivalent: numbers of radiators that underfloor heating systems would amount to around 17,000 (see J) and therefore what market share underfloor heating systems would account for of the combined market “radiators+UHF”: 2% (see L); © BSRIA Page 17 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING - ROMANIA Breakdown to reach an estimated value for the total market accounting in 2011 for €4.1 million (see V) is: pipe 18% (see Q); controls, manifolds, etc. 29% (see S); panels, insulants, etc. 52% (see R). Table 11 Underfloor heating market by radiator equivalent, volume, 2010 Linear metres pipe per sq. metre Output needed per sq. metre Output per radiator Average size domestic installation Source: BSRIA © BSRIA Units metres Watts Watts sq.metre Page 18 of 32 Residential Commercial 6.0 75 1,000 150 4.5 52 1,100 250 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Table 12 Underfloor heating market by radiator equivalent, volume, 2011 Units VOLUME Market data Assumptions Calculations VALUE Market data Calculations Total Residential Commercial 1,400,000 1,120,000 280,000 100% 80% 20% A Total pipe market for underfloor heating metres B Residential & Commercial (metres of pipe) % C Total radiator market units D Linear metres pipe per sq. metre metres 6.0 4.5 E Output needed per sq. metre Watts 75 52 F Output per radiator Watts 1,000 1,100 G Average size installation sq.metre 150 250 H Total sq. metre underfloor heating (B*A/D) sq.metre 248,889 186,667 62,222 I Output required (E*H) Watts 17,235,556 14,000,000 3,235,556 J Radiators equivalent (F/I) units 16,941 14,000 2,941 K Number of underfloor heating installations (H/G) units 1,493 1,244 249 L % market share underfloor heating J/(J+C) % 962,900 6 2% M Pipe € / metre 0.53 0.53 0.53 N Insulation € / sq. metre 8.60 8.60 8.60 O Manifolds, screws, room controls € / sq. metre 4.80 4.80 4.80 P Pipe per sq. metre (D*M) € / sq. metre 3.02 3.18 2.385 Q Pipe, €, sq. metre underfloor heating P/(N+O+P) % 18% 19% 15% R Insulation, €, sq. metre underfloor heating, N/(N+O+P) % 52% 52% 54% S Manifolds, screws, room controls, € sq. metre, O/(N+O+P) % 29% 29% 30% T Total pipe (P*H) Euros 0.7 0.6 0.1 U Total materials, H*(N+O) Euros 3.3 2.5 0.8 V Grand total (T+U) Euros 4.1 3.1 1.0 Source: BSRIA © BSRIA Page 19 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING 3 ROMANIA MARKET TRENDS 3.1 TRENDS The main drivers that influenced the 2011 radiator market and will affect also the next years are as follows: New residential construction has been declining since 2009, number of dwelling completions fell by 9%, construction permits for family houses and other residential housing also contracted; The same applies to construction of commercial premises: the market is still weak as compared to before the recession; Replacement and refurbishment sales now dominate due to the low share of new construction; Another wave of conversions from district heating to individual gas heating commenced in 2010 as IMF requested slashing subsidies to district heating. According to the agreement with IMF subsidies should have been removed already by mid-2011. In reality, many of the municipalities still cover the difference between the cost and the household tariff. Some however abolished the subsidy and heating bills rose considerably in selected towns; Government support program (Prima Casa - First Home) and the subsidy program for green energy Casa Verde was re-launched in mid-2010. Subsidy is provided for solid fuel boilers, heat pumps and solar thermal panels. In reality, however it was complained that the program does not work well and it is difficult for ordinary citizens to get the subsidy paid. No doubt the financial and economic crisis had a deep impact on the Romanian households. Purchasing power has been seriously depressed in the past 2-3 years due to several factors: Rapid depreciation of RON – from 3.30 to the level close to 4.50 RON/EUR at the moment; Uncertainty in the region due to an expected exit of Greece from the Eurozone. It is to note that the 4 Greek banks active in Romania (National Bank of Greece, Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Piraeus) hold around 12% market share in Romania and deposits worth €4.7 billion; High debt repayments of households for loans in EUR and especially CHF that have been taken before the crisis during a period of a strong RON (below 3.50 RON per EUR); Credit crunch (stricter limits for consumer loans and mortgages); Increase of VAT since July 2010 from 19% to 24%. This has been the most abrupt and sharp increase of VAT in Europe so far. The increase was effective almost immediately. Imported heating products purchased from Eurozone are now more expensive in RON terms. The Casa verde (“Green House”) subsidy program that was launched by the Ministry of Environment in January 2009 could not be implemented in its original version. The official name of the program is “Program for installation of heating systems using renewable energy, including replacing or supplementing traditional heating systems”. During 2009 the rules were adjusted in such a way that only public institutions may have received the funds. However these usually have little budgets to provide co-financing. As a result, the impact of the program on the market was minimal. Casa Verde was originally launched with the aim to create incentives for households to install heating systems based on renewable energy, i.e. solar thermal panels, heat pumps and wind turbines. The program was however finally relaunched in mid-2010 with the following rules: Only physical persons, owners of a residential building are eligible; There must be a conversion of a heating/water heating system from fossil fuel to renewable solution; There is no list of approved products or installation companies; RON 6,000 subsidy for solar thermal panels; RON 6,000 subsidy for biomass-burning solid fuel boilers incl. pellets, bio-waste, corn, etc. RON 8,000 for heat pumps; © BSRIA Page 20 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Two systems may be combined and will be both supported; Eligible cost include installation, VAT and all the material; The program is administered by “Agenţia pentru Protecţia Mediului” (APM). In early 2012, the government announced that Casa Verde would be temporarily halted due to lack of financial funds in APM. General elections will take place in November 2012. This is perceived as a risk since it is not clear whether the next government would continue with the austerity program agreed with IMF. Table 13 Radiator and underfloor heating market historical trends, volume (‘000 units), 20062010 Steel panel (incl. flat fronted) Other steel Aluminium Cast iron Towel warmers Total radiators ('000 units) Underfloor heating (million metres) Source: BSRIA 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 CAGR 2006-2010 1,250.0 1.0 98.5 52.0 146.0 1,547.5 1.2 1,535.0 5.0 108.0 66.1 176.0 1,890.0 1.5 1,650.0 15.0 115.0 60.0 195.0 2,034.9 2.6 900.0 7.0 105.0 23.0 115.0 1,150.0 1.5 970.0 20.0 102.0 25.0 124.0 1,241.1 1.7 -6.1% 111.5% 0.9% -16.7% -4.0% -5.4% 9.4% Steel panels and towel warmers (incl. decorative type) were mainly sold to the new construction segment during the boom years 2006-8. This has changed abruptly in 2009 and replacement and retrofit sales are now the main driver. Given the expected removal of subsidies to district heating and related increase in the number of conversions to individual central heating, this should positively influence also the radiator market. Even though growth would be smaller as compared e.g. to the wall hung gas boiler market. It is expected conversions would culminate in 2013-14. The future of cast iron radiators is closely related to renovation of the district heating system in Romania, since cast iron radiators are the best suitable for such installations - these cope better with oxygen in the heating system beyond the heating season. It is however more likely that households will increasingly attempt to leave the obsolete district heating system and those staying connected would keep the old radiators. Underfloor heating was hit by the decline of new construction and this will not change in 2012. Construction of family houses has seen further declines. Underfloor heating is hardly sold to conversions. 3.2 FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS Forecasts for the heating products market are based on the following key assumptions: Conversions from district heating to individual central heating will be feasible-to-do during 20122014; District heating subsidies will be gradually removed after the 2012 elections, price per Gcal would rise between 50-100% depending on the region; Casa Verde subsidy program will not be open for applications in 2012 due to lack of financing; RON/EUR exchange rate would oscillate between RON 4.00 to 5.00 per EUR during 2012-13; © BSRIA Page 21 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Romania will continue to implement structural reforms as demanded by IMF and European financial institutions also after the November 2012 elections. Table 14 Radiator and underfloor heating market forecast, volume (‘000 units), 2011-2015 Steel panel (incl. flat fronted) Steel elements Aluminium Cast iron Towel warmers Total radiators ('000 units) Underfloor heating (million metres) Source: BSRIA 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR 2011-2015 760.0 15.0 75.0 13.0 100.0 962.9 1.4 684.0 14.3 67.5 11.0 95.0 871.7 1.4 718.2 14.3 70.9 9.9 97.8 911.0 1.5 790.0 15.0 74.4 8.9 102.7 991.0 1.7 869.0 15.7 78.1 8.0 107.8 1,078.7 1.8 3.4% 1.2% 1.0% -11.3% 1.9% 2.9% 7.0% Figure 4 Radiator market forecast, volume (‘000 units), 2011-2015 Source: BSRIA Figure 5 Underfloor market forecast, volume (million metres), 2011-2015 Source: BSRIA © BSRIA Page 22 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING 4 ROMANIA STRUCTURE OF SUPPLY 4.1 RADIATORS Romania is a net importer of radiators of all kinds since there is a one local manufacturer of towel warmers in the country. The Bucharest-based Radox manufactures steel and stainless steel towel warmers, decorative radiators and owning label sales of steel panels. Radox runs two plants - in the capital and in Campulung. The company also distributes Giacomini underfloor heating. Radox sold 180,000 radiators in 2008, out of it 70% was exported to Italy, UK, Germany, Belgium. Turnover in radiators business reached over Euro 7 million in 2008 and fell to around Euro 4 million in 2009. Since then the business has been declining. There used to be more production facilities for radiators operating however these did not survive the downturn in the construction industry. These included Siral (aluminium radiators), Mirex Tulcea (steel panels) and SC Nessli (steel panels). Now over 95% of the Romanian radiator market is covered by imports. Romania is also a transit country for radiators; re-exports occur mainly to Ukraine and Moldova. It is nevertheless very difficult to account for the re-exports in the market share tables. 4.1.1 Steel panel radiators The Turkish Elginkan (ECA branded as Eccorad and Ecopan) through Romstal is now the largest supplier to the Romanian market and holds an estimated share of 17% of the market. Rettig sales rebound in 2010 and the Finnish group gained share to estimated 12-14%. Korado kept losing sales after delisting from Romstal, its main account is now Secpral Pro Instalatii. Romstal continues its cooperation with a smaller German producer H.M.Heizkörper. The Vaillant Group markets both Demir Döküm brands – Fix and Demrad, as well as limited numbers of VaiRad. Another Turkish manufacturer Starpan is distributed by Black Sea Suppliers. The Baykan Group ran into financial difficulties in 2008 and has since been fighting to survive. The Slovakian US Steel Korad bets on wider distribution with smaller partners and managed to keep sales also in 2011. Ferroli was one of the main winners in 2010 but lost again in 2011. Other suppliers include mainly the Turkish suppliers: Mastaş, Termoteknik, Termopan. De Longhi, Henrad and Imas are also present on the market. The boiler producer Köber (Motan) also imports OEM steel panels from Turkey and rebrands it as Motan. Table 15 Market shares for steel panel radiators, 2010 and 2011e 2010 Holding Group Elginkan Rettig Vaillant Group Ferroli Korado Kermi US Steel H.M.Heizkorper GmbH&Co.KG Company / Brand Eccorad, Ecopan Vogel & Noot, Purmo Demrad, VaiRad, Fix Ferroli Korado Kermi Korad HM Köber Nessli Mirex Tulcea Motan Nessli Mirex, Hornbach Importer / Representation 000 units 2011e % Romstal Subsidiary Subsidiary Subsidiary Secpral, Tristar Exim Several importers Dedeman, Tristar, Termoplus, TMS Romstal Köber Local manufacturer Local manufacturer 164.9 121.8 110.0 100.0 40.3 40.0 32.0 31.0 0.0 80.0 50.0 200.0 Total 970.0 100.0% Others 17.0% 12.6% 11.3% 10.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 8.2% 5.2% 20.6% 000 units 132.0 110.0 100.0 50.0 30.4 30.0 29.4 24.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 251.7 % 17.4% 14.5% 13.2% 6.6% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 33.1% 760.0 100.0% Source: BSRIA © BSRIA Page 23 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Figure 6 Market shares for steel panel radiators, 2011e Source: BSRIA 4.1.2 Towel warmer radiators There is one local manufacturer of towel warmers in Romania: Radox. The company produces steel and stainless steel radiators in 2 plants. Most of its production is being exported. Romstal switched fully to the Italian manufacturer Lazzarini. The Czech Thermal Trend manufactures steel towel warmers. Table 16 Market shares for towel warmer radiators, 2010 and 2011e 2010 Holding Group Radox Lazzarini Thermal Trend Rettig Ferroli Fondital Korado Neria Company / Brand Importer / Representation Radox Local manufacturer Romstal Romstal Thermal Trend Secpral Pro Instalatii Vogel & Noot Subsidiary Ferroli Subsidiary Nova Florida Romstal Korado Secpral Pro Instalatii, Tristar Neria Romstal Others Total 000 units 2011e % 35.0 28.2% 31.3 25.2% 2.0 1.6% 6.7 5.4% 10.0 8.1% 1.4 1.2% 0.0 0.0% 0.2 0.2% 37.4 30.1% 124.0 100.0% 000 units 25.0 21.7 20.0 5.0 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 24.1 % 25.0% 21.7% 20.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 24.1% 100.0 100.0% Source: BSRIA © BSRIA Page 24 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Figure 7 Market shares for towel warmer radiators, 2011e Source: BSRIA 4.1.3 Other steel radiators The market for steel tubular radiators is still a niche albeit quickly growing sales e.g. by the Italian Ideal Clima (through Platinum Instal in Bucuresti) or by Ercos by Romstal. Purmo Romania also brought smaller amounts to Romania. 4.1.4 Aluminium radiators Nova Florida (Fondital) imported by Romstal and Ferroli are the main players in this segment. Ferroli managed to gain significant market share from Romstal during the past few years. Romstal also introduced elements from the Italian company Pierrepi Presofusioni in 2009 and imports also Chinese production since 2011. The Romanian manufacturer Radox also sells own label aluminium radiators. The rest of the market is fragmented. Table 17 Market shares for aluminium radiators, 2010 and 2011e 2010 Holding Group Ferroli Fondital Pierrepi Presofusioni Radox Zhejiang Ningshuhai Industry Sira Group Others Company / Brand Importer / Representation 000 units Ferroli Nova Florida Pierrepi Presofusioni Radox Romstal Siral Subsidiary Romstal Romstal Romanian manufacturer Romstal Siral Total 20.0 29.8 14.7 7.0 0.0 5.0 25.5 2011e % 19.6% 29.2% 14.4% 6.9% 0.0% 4.9% 25.0% 102.0 100.0% 000 units 20.0 18.9 7.5 6.0 1.2 0.0 21.4 % 26.7% 25.2% 10.0% 8.0% 1.6% 0.0% 28.5% 75.0 100.0% Source: BSRIA © BSRIA Page 25 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Figure 8 Market shares for aluminium radiators, 2011e Source: BSRIA 4.1.5 Cast iron radiators In the cast iron market there has been no important domestic producer since 1991 when the largest cast-iron manufacturer, Urbis, switched to aluminium. The Czech Viadrus used to be the leader in Romania (sold via Romstal, Black Sea, Impex and Metalurgica), however sales suffered badly since 2009. Romstal dropped Viadrus and now distributes the Turkish Odoksan from the Elginkan group. Another Turkish supplier Demrad is supported by the local subsidiary of Vaillant Group in Romania and sold by Black Sea Suppliers, Melinda, Ucrom and other players. Ferroli is another serious supplier to this shrinking market. Some further imports from Belorussia and China were registered in the past year, which are summed under ‘others’. Table 18 Market shares for cast iron radiators, 2010 and 2011e 2010 Holding Group Company / Brand Importer / Representation Vaillant Group Elginkan Ferroli KKCG Others Demrad Odoksan, Eleks Ferroli Viadrus Black Sea, Ucrom Romstal Subsidiary Romstal, Black Sea, Impex Total 000 units 5.0 8.1 5.0 1.5 5.4 2011e % 20.0% 32.4% 20.0% 6.0% 21.6% 25.0 100.0% 000 units 4.0 2.8 1.3 1.0 3.9 % 30.9% 21.6% 9.7% 7.7% 30.1% 13.0 100.0% Source: BSRIA © BSRIA Page 26 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Figure 9 Market shares for cast iron radiators, 2011e Source: BSRIA 4.2 UNDERFLOOR HEATING The underfloor heating market is dominated by imports. The market consists of branded products and a grey zone, which is supplied by installation companies from components sourced from various noname manufacturers (often Far East products). There are two locally based manufacturers of pipes that also sell products usable for underfloor heating: Valrom Industrie Bucuresti is a major producer of various construction pipes owned by the Italian Valsir. Valrom is closely attached to distribution in Romania since its sister company Romstal is the biggest HVAC distributor in the country. Valrom was established in 1996. The manufacturer sells in Romania PEX-Al pipes from Valsir Italy although its focus is not primarily on underfloor heating. Valrom sells full range of piping products for a construction site: PVC and PE sewage systems, installation piping from PEX, PEX-Al, PPRC, systems for collection of raining water, PE HD natural gas pipes (street lines), drainage pipes, gutters, garden pipes, etc. Rompipes Enterprises in Suceava manufactures Pexb-Al-Pexb and PE-RT pipes that can be used for wide variety of purposes including underfloor heating. Most sales are however radiator connection or sanitary water piping. Rompipes Enterprises belongs to the Israeli Plassim Group. The main foreign brands present at the market are as follows: Rehau Polymer traditionally had a strong position on the Romanian underfloor heating pipe market. Rehau has a subsidiary near Bucharest, a factory for PVC and PE pipes in Sibiu and distributes through a wide network of distributors. Rehau sells mainly to commercial projects. The Germans however decided to close the Sibiu factory in 2010; Uponor has a representation in Bucuresti, its main account being Romstal. Uponor pipes are also used for radiator connection, sanitary piping, with underfloor heating making a smaller part; Giacomini is distributed by Radox and Secpral Pro Instalatii; Henco is represented by Trust Eurotherm and the Swiss Haka by Formula Prima; Calor SRL distributes Viega Fonterra (PEXc) pipes and underfloor heating system; © BSRIA Page 27 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Purmo Romania sells its pipes along Rettig branded radiators, mainly to projects (PEXa and PEX/Al/PE-X) and to wholesale (Arabeque, Amber, Euro-Instal, Ambient, Elsaco, and others); The German TECE sells through its subsidiary near Bucuresti. Other smaller suppliers include Herz, Laing, Hepworth, Wefa, D-Eg Hewing (through Melinda) and manufacturers of copper tubes such as Halcor. Share of copper tubes in the underfloor heating is however still very small as compared to the cheaper PEX, estimated at around 1% of the market. Table 19 Market shares for underfloor heating, volume (million metres), 2010 and 2011e 2010 Holding Group Rehau Uponor Rettig Henco Industries Others Company / Brand Rehau Unipipe Purmo Henco Importer / RepresentationMillion metres Subsidiary Romstal Subsidiary Trust Eurotherm Total 455.0 350.0 105.0 140.0 600.0 2011e % Million metres % 27.6% 21.2% 6.4% 8.5% 36.4% 455.0 32.5% 230.0 16.4% 130.0 9.3% 110.0 7.9% 475.0 33.9% 1650.0 100.0% 1400.0 100.0% Source: BSRIA Figure 10 Market shares for underfloor heating, volume (‘000 metres), 2011e Source: BSRIA © BSRIA Page 28 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA 5 DISTRIBUTION AND END USER SECTOR 5.1 OVERVIEW The usual three-step distribution chain works well in Romania, although there are more direct supplies to installers than in Western Europe. Some of the biggest wholesalers (mainly Romstal) heavily target not only installers but also end users. Table 20 First point of distribution for manufacturers/importers, 2011e Radiators 000 units Wholesalers Installers Retailers (incl. DIY) Direct supply (e.g. house builders) Others Total Source: BSRIA 558.5 144.4 134.8 77.0 48.1 962.9 % Underfloor heating Million metres 58% 15% 14% 8% 5% 100.0% 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 % 45% 39% 8% 5% 3% 100.0% Figure 11 First point of distribution, radiators and underfloor heating, 2011e Radiators Underfloor heating Source: BSRIA 5.2 DISTRIBUTION OF RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING Romania has two dominating players in the HVAC wholesale/retail business, which is Romstal and Black Sea Suppliers. Furthermore, Melinda Impex, Secpral Pro Instalatii and Trust Eurotherm would complement the top 5 sanitary and heating wholesalers. Other players with turnover below €5 million include Calor, Ucrom 94 Impex and others. The Slovak TMS Montys established a subsidiary TMS RO SRL, which also sells heating products from Slovakia. DAS SRL is one of the larger installation companies, mainly active in the NE of the country. There are many regional small players which source either directly from importers/subsidiaries or from bigger players. However, the market is becoming more concentrated each year as the main distributors become stronger. Since 2008 many players have been struggling to survive on the declining market. © BSRIA Page 29 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Table 21 Major heating products distributors, 2011 Holding Distributor Type Of which Turnover turnover 2010 in € heating in million m€ Romstal Group Romstal Imex SRL WS, retail 114 (RO) N/A Black Sea Suppliers Black Sea Suppliers SRL WS 64.7 N/A RO, Serbia, BG, RU, UKR, Italy, Moldova Nationwide Secpral Pro Instalatii Secpral Pro Instalatii SRL WS 29.4 29.4 Cluj, Bucuresti, Sibiu Melinda Impex Melinda Impex Instal SA WS 35.8 35.8 Transylvania Trust Euro Therm Trust Euro Therm SRL 8.3 8.3 North-East Arabesque Arabesque SRL 348 N/A Nationwide Ucrom Ucrom 94 Imp SRL WS Building merchant WS 1.9 1.9 Bucuresti TMS Montys TMS RO SRL WS 0.5 0.5 Arad Calor S.C. Calor SRL 4.1 4.1 Bucuresti Dedeman Dedeman SRL 362.6 N/A South-East, North-East DAS DAS SRL 19.0 N/A North-East (Iasi, Bacau) Ambient Ambient SA WS, retail Building merchant WS, installer Building merchant 105.0 N/A Nationwide Geographic coverage Source: BSRIA Table 22 Major heating products distributors – radiator and underfloor brands, 2011 Number of outlets 131 franchises (107 in RO) Distributor Main brands Romstal Imex Uponor, Elginkan, Fondital, Sime, Pierrepi, Lazzarini Black Sea Suppliers Demrad, Viadrus, Starpan 32 Secpral Pro Instalatii Korado, Thermal Trend, Giacomini, Termolux 3 Melinda Impex Demrad, D-eg, Hewing 19 1 Trust Euro Therm Source: BSRIA Henco, De Longhi As most of the steel panels are imported, the suppliers either work on an agreement with a larger wholesaler (Elginkan, Korado) or have more individual distributors (Rettig brands, US Steel Korad, Demrad) or sell directly to DIY (Korad, D-Eg). DIY chains and builders’ merchants also increasingly offer radiators, especially steel panels. Dedeman is supplied from US Steel-Korad and Bricostore by Dunaferr (D-Eg). At the small Romanian underfloor heating market the suppliers usually collaborate with a wide range of distributors/installers. Rehau has over 40 (even if their top 5 distributors make 40% of sales). Giacomini is distributed and imported by the local manufacturer of towel warmers Radox. Uponor is sold mainly by Romstal. Rettig leverages sales through its wide network of mid-size HVAC wholesalers in the regions. © BSRIA Page 30 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING 5.2.1 ROMANIA Distributor profiles Wholesalers Romstal is now the largest sanitary and HVAC wholesaler cum retailer in the SEE region and is looking to expand further. The distributor’s overall turnover in 2010 is estimated at around €310 million. In Romania alone, Romstal (Romstal Imex SRL) reached a turnover of €114 million with 893 employees in 2010. Romstal is a joint venture of Romanian (60%) and Italian (40%) capital. Romstal became an multinational company in 2002 when it opened its first store in Moldavia, then in 2003 entered Ukraine, in 2004 Italy and Bulgaria. The expansion went on in 2007 by acquisition of a Serbian wholesale operation Doming for Euro 10 million. In 2009 Romstal opened three stores in Russia, where it plans to develop a network of 300 wholesale outlets within the next 10 years. Romania operates as a franchise in Romania. Romstal also plans to expand in the field of wind energy. The HVAC distributor is part of a larger Romstal Group that includes also Valrom Industrie and Valplast Industrie, manufacturers of plastic pipes and fittings with 5 plants in 3 countries, Mercedes Benz dealerships (Autoklass), producer of shower cabinets Belform, Doming in Serbia (distributor of sanitary and heating) and other companies including an IT company and a real estate developer. Black Sea Suppliers is the second largest wholesaler with an extensive national network in Romania. The distributor has 32 warehouses all over the country. Black Sea Suppliers imports sanitary and heating products from Turkey, China, other Eastern European countries, Italy and other Western Europe. The company distributes boilers (Immergas, Joannes, Demrad, Viadrus, Buderus, Erensan, Ferroli), water heaters (Tesy, Eldom Invest, Elbi) and radiators (Demrad, Vogel&Noot, Viadrus, Coskunöz-Starpan, Radiatori 2000). Black Sea Suppliers reached a turnover of €64.7 million with 503 employees in 2010. Secpral Pro Instalatii based in Cluj-Napoca is a medium-sized wholesaler, that offers a wide range of heating solutions, mainly imported from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Italy. Its ownership is entirely Romanian. The company distributes through its 3 large warehouses (over 7,000 sq.m.) based in Cluj-Napoca, Sibiu and Bucharest. Its main brands are Korado, Protherm, Atmos, DZ Drazice, Woody-Höterm, Haka, Henco and Pannonpipe. Melinda Impex Instal focusing entirely on HVAC and sanitary wholesaler business is a sister company of a steel wholesaler Melinda Steel. Melinda has now 19 outlets scattered across Transylvania with 221 employees. DIY stores Dedeman is originally a Romanian builders’ merchant, since 2010 the largest DIY store in Romania in terms of turnover and a success story competing with foreign chains. Dedeman opened its 28th store in May 2012 and thus became number one DIY in Romania also in terms of stores. The chain intends to have over 30 stores countrywide by 2015. The privately owned retailer (Paval brothers) reported turnover of €250 million in 2009, €369 in 2010 and €476 million in 2011. The company, which now has around 4,000 employees (2011), plans to become an international player, opening stores in Bulgaria, Turkey and some of the former Yugoslav countries. Dedeman distributes boilers from Ariston, Viessmann, Bosch, Ferroli and Motan. The Do-It-Yourself chain Praktiker is now the second largest DIY chain in Romania after Dedeman. The company has been however declining since 2008. Praktiker reached a turnover of €258 million in 2009 but kept losing sales in both 2010 (€198m) and 2011 (€152m). The DIY retailer has 27 stores in Romania; the total number of employees reached 3,000. In 2012, Praktiker budgets a turnover of only €137 million. © BSRIA Page 31 of 32 Report 55384/61 RADIATORS AND UNDERFLOOR HEATING ROMANIA Bricostore (owned by French group Bresson) offers in its outlets Dunaferr and Demrad radiators, Gorenje towel-warmers, Radiant and Protherm boilers, Bosch boilers and water heaters, Cointra water heaters and a wide range of heating accessories, sanitary products and the usual DIY assortment. Bricostore operates also in Hungary and Croatia. In Romania the group reached a turnover of €145 million in 2010 and currently runs 16 stores. The chain initially intended to operate 30 stores in Romania by 2011. Starting in 2010, Mr. Bricolage (currently 3 stores) expects to open four new locations each year. In total 30 stores shall be opened with an investment of €220 million. Its turnover reached €16.8 million in 2010. BauMax Romania now runs 15 stores and reached a turnover of €130 million in 2010. Hornbach has 5 stores and a turnover of €70 million (2010) and Obi 7 stores and €38.5 million in 2010. Profi Center runs a network of 15 stores all over Romania and supplies mainly installers. The chain distributes Dunaferr steel panel and towel warmers, Alurad aluminium radiators, Biasi, Beretta, Vaillant, Buderus boilers, Viadrus solid fuel boilers, Feg water heaters, Pannonpipe pipes. Profi Center is owned by PS Intex. 5.3 END USER SECTOR Table 23 Radiators and underfloor heating market by end user sector, 2011e Radiators 000 units Residential new build Residential refurbishment & replacement Commercial new build* Commercial refurbishment & replacement* 338.9 450.6 67.4 105.9 962.9 Underfloor heating % Million metres 35.2% 46.8% 7.0% 11.0% 100.0% Total Source: BSRIA * Please note that commercial segment include multi-dwellings and non-residential buildings 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.4 % 27.0% 53.0% 8.0% 12.0% 100.0% In 2011 and 2012, demand stems from replacement and retrofit, as new commercial construction remains sluggish and new residential construction (of flats) is virtually dead. Given the development in Greece, it cannot be expected that the situation improve anytime soon. Demand for steel panels came mainly from conversions from district heating to individual heating (wall hung boiler) and from replacement. Combined, these two are estimated to represent under half of radiator sales in Romania in 2011. Residential new build (family houses) accounted for only an estimated 35%, which is a further decline from the years before. New construction of dwellings in blocks of flats is virtually frozen, there are still a few unsold projects and financing is scarce. Underfloor heating mainly sells to new family houses and to refurbishment instead of old radiators. Sales to the commercial new build and refurbishment segment are now also much less significant than during the boom years. © BSRIA Page 32 of 32 Report 55384/61