EDITORIAL Traversing the Downturn
Transcription
EDITORIAL Traversing the Downturn
EDITORIAL KERALA CALLING www.kerala.gov.in/publications.htm e-mail: [email protected] Phone: 0471-2518648 Fax: 0471-2331793 Editor-in-Chief: P.K. Lal Additional Director, Information & Public Relations Deputy Editor-in-Chief: P.S. Suresh Deputy Director, Information & Public Relations Editor: K.C. Anil Kumar Assistant Editor: V.P. Pramod Kumar Sub Editor: Sunil Hassan Copy Assistant: B. Harikumar Designer: Ratheesh Kumar R Artist: V.S. Prakash Circulation: R. Anilkumar Representatives: E. Sajeev, New Delhi T.A. Shine, Thiruvananthapuram S. Nasar, Kollam Pathanamthitta N. Sunil Kumar, Alappuzha P. Vinod, Ernakulam Kottayam V. K. Sharafudeen, Thrissur T.C. Joseph, Palakkad Radhakrishna Pillai, Malappuram P. Kunjabdulla, Kozhikode M.A Vincent, Wayanad P. P. Chandran, Kannur K. Abdul Rahman, Kasaragod K. Abdul Rasheed, Editorial Materials The articles/features appearing in this magazine are either commissioned or assigned. Nevertheless, other articles are also welcome. 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Kerala Calling welcomes free expression of divergent views and exchange of ideas through its pages. Traversing the Downturn The global recession is looming. The financial meltdown that started in the United States certainly has an impact in almost every level of our economy. The most immediate effect is the unprecedented economic challenges we have to face. The long spell of economic growth is reversing. Industrial growth is dropping sharply, inflation remains quite elevated and foreign exchange reserves are falling. The financial markets are experiencing the rollercoaster swings, sending shivers down the investors’ spines. The financial crisis has shown how poorly functional, the global financial structure is! The industrial world is still unaware of the need for serious rethinking of the governance of global finance. Reeling under the impact of global slowdown, India's exports declined. The US and European markets account for 70 percent of India’s textile and garment exports. After agriculture, export-oriented industries like textile, handicraft and gems and jewellery employ largest number of people in India. Concerns have been raised over large scale job losses in these sectors. Amid the deep concerns, Indian Government has assured the industry that government would take measures to maintain economic growth. India’s growth rate for the year 2008 has been revised down by the Reserve Bank of India to 7.5 percent from the previous projection of nine percent. The global economic downturn has already begun to have its impact on Kerala economy too. The Kerala economy is dependent on world market conditions to a larger extent than any other state in India. Exports from Kerala have declined, prices of cash crops are coming down, information technology, textiles and tourism sectors are facing a demand crunch and industry is already feeling the credit pinch. The growth this year may come down to six per cent from last year’s eight per cent. The State may also witness considerable job losses. The loss is likely to be in the service sector as well as in the unorganised traditional sectors and plantations. It would bring a substantial reduction in the number of work days per employee. The Information technology industry, the most dynamic sector of the economy, is feeling the impact of the financial turmoil. The fears of global slowdown grip the BPO industry also. But the opening up of new opportunities provide a silver lining as the companies look to cut cost and, as part of the exercise, outsource more of their work. Government has taken some monetary and fiscal measures on the domestic front to strengthen the service sector and thereby relieve the economy. These problems should be addressed in ways that will promote fairness, efficiency and productivity. We have to explore new horizons and newer ways to manage the recovery of our economy. That calls for a coordinated and informed action from all levels. COVERSTORY V S Achuthananthan Chief Minister Downthrow Market Fundamentalism W The world economy cannot move through the same way that it travelled all these days. 4 KERALACALLING e are now facing the historical moment when the global economic history is at the end of the road, searching for new ways to go ahead. In all ways this is a time of transition of eons. The world economy cannot move through the same way that it travelled all these days. We see all over the world the sight that even strong conventionalists are competing to wash their hands of market fundamentalism and new liberalisation policies. Even the tongue of World Bank and International Monitory Fund has changed. We have even seen that those who renounced administration too were begging for the interference of the same. It is noteworthy that those who rendered all help to casino capitalism themselves are criticising the same. It has been widely accepted that the world cannot go ahead much without refurbishing the national and international economic arrangements, especially global monitory system. The global economic crisis fuels the thoughts and expectations about the non-capitalist societies. The economic crisis faced by the present world is so severe and grave that the countries of the world and international institutions are forced to abandon old ways in search of new ones. It is undisputable that this crisis will affect almost all nations, phases of development and the great majority of people. The reality that the global economic crisis has crossed the seas and started affecting India and our State itself is in our front. At this moment of crisis and break down, December 2008 instead of being pleased in frustration and sluggishness, we have to prepare to face it. The most immediate responsibility is to protect the workers, farmers, small scale industrialists and other weaker sections who are more prone to the economic crisis. Along with that we have to take vigil in not slowing down the flow of growth and to revise our development tactics according to the changes that occur in national and international levels due to the economic crisis. If you want to take precautions as I mentioned above to defend the global economic crisis, firstly, you have to acquire the exact awareness and understanding about the reasons as well as solutions of it. The background of the frantic studies and discussions taking place all over the world about economic crisis is this. The reason behind the decision of the UN General Assembly to appoint a special panel as mentioned here is nothing but this. Our Planning Board Vice Chairman Prof. Prabhat Patnaik has been invited to join in the panel and address the General Assembly. I see this as a recognition too to the uncompromising activities of Prof. Patnaik and other progressive thinkers all over the world against the neo liberal thoughts. Let me use this occasion to inform my congratulations to Prof. Prabhat Patnaik. One basic reason for the break down of capitalist system is that the market will not develop in accordance with the accumulation of capital and increase in production. America tried to solve the issue of growth It is foolish to think that speculative trading capital can be restrained by increasing the price of share value artificial y. They may see the increase of share value as the time to sell out their shares. stagnation of market by credit finance and by permitting the speculators work with loose reins. When the bubble of debt finance burst out and the speculation capital faced backlash in share markets and others, the crisis in money market has permuted to a big economic crisis. Hope has great place in the growth and fall of capitalist system. The atmosphere of economic crisis has made that hopes touch the bottom. This situation in which nobody has faith in anybody will intensify the impact of the break down. The particles of global economic crisis spread over other countries mainly through two ways. The first one is that of foreign trade. And the second one is the way of the floating of speculative trading capital. In these two, the first one will create headache to all countries and lands which have exporting and importing. The inflow of crisis through foreign trade cannot be get rid of completely. Within a short period it can only be controlled. The contagious nature of disease from the way of the floating of speculative capital is very swift and more dangerous. Immediate steps should be taken to seal this way. When the foreign speculative trading capital was given permission both to enter India and to withdraw at any time, the Left Parties and eminent economists had given forewarn about the danger that would December 2008 occur. When the speculation capital flooded in and the share values went sky-high, the rulers of the Centre had no time to lend an ear to our advice and warning. But all of them were busy with celebrating the share value shoot up. Our apprehension was that the speculation capital would flow out collectively if any kind of meek provocation occurred and the impact of this could not be borne by our economy. What we feared about is happening now. By then the news of global crisis spread, they began sell out Indian shares massively and get away. Indian share values fell down. The value of Indian Rupee fell downright. The fact that foreign share trading institutions have not carried out the entire amount they brought in and they will do the same if they get an opportunity is worrying. It is foolish to think that speculative trading capital can be restrained by increasing the price of share value artificially. They may see the increase of share value as the time to sell out their shares. So I strongly recommend the Central Government to implement stern controls over the foreign share trading institutions. The way out of this crisis is the taking over of developmental activities which will increase both the buying potential of people and the demand. Most of the scientists take such a stand in this matter. For taking more developmental activities in government level, the Central Government has to dispose of its Contd. on page 9 KERALACALLING 5 be directly available to all. The fall of traditional sectors will worsen the condition of the poor in the State. Counter Cyclical Measures The above-mentioned factors point to the significance of formulating a comprehensive plan for protecting the poor and employment opportunities and income for them. But in the federal set up of India, the state governments are severely constrained to undertake this task. The state governments cannot take recourse to deficit financing or even take recourse to market borrowing without the permission of the central government. There is a possibility of shortfall in the Central Tax share and the State's tax revenue due to the economic down turn. There has been a decrease in the tax received from stamp duty, rubber and vehicles during the month of October. The Central Government should raise the borrowing limits of the state governments. Nevertheless we shall adopt the following measures: Firstly we should be able to take immediate steps to protect the poor in the traditional sector. For this purpose, the social security measures including public distribution should be strengthened. Central aid should be made available for this. Secondly, the National Employment Guarantee Scheme should be broadened, focussing the unemployed in the traditional sector. This scheme should be implemented in the form of a campaign in connection with Food Security Programme, Social Forestry and Sanitation. Changes should be made in the criteria so that they are more appropriate to the conditions of Kerala. Thirdly, large-scale investment should be made for the development of infrastructure which includes roads, bridges, parks, public buildings etc. The Central Government should be ready to enhance the credit limit of the State immediately for this purpose. Fourthly the NRI deposit schemes should be made more attractive. This would help in lightening the credit crunch in Kerala. Banks should change their approach. Co-operative sector should be strengthened. We are devising a Rs.2000 crore total housing programme with housing loan from co-operatives. It is indeed a model global recession programme even at the national level back drop of the crisis. Fifthly import of rubber should not be liberalised. The subsidies given to other edible oils should also be made available to coconut oil and import of the former must be controlled. Support price should be announced immediately for unhusked coconuts in the new season. Sixthly, steps should be taken to expand the domestic market for the products of traditional export industries, even if this effort will be constrained by the economic slow down. December 2008 Contd. from page 5 Downthrow Market Fundamentalism bundles of ideologies of market fundamentalism and neo liberalism. It has to recognise the part of administration and public sector in the leadership also. I remember here that the Centre has done Herculean task to cut down the government expenditure and economic deficiency only for attracting speculative trading capital. This is the time to give up the fundamentalism about economic deficiency and to increase government’s investment on capital. There is no other means in giving solace to the public and revitalising the hope of investors. The news that Central Government is preparing to increase public capital investment is worth welcoming. But the states also are to be permitted to do the same. The states should be released immediately from the nose-string of Financial Responsibility Bill. Restriction to borrow should be revoked. States should be evaded from compelling to take foreign debt and be permitted to borrow from domestic market. The problems created by foreign aid projects need not be mentioned here. All economic powers stolen from states as part of neo liberalisation policy should be reinstated. As part of bringing solace to the public, the Central Government should get ready to cut down the controlled prices of petroleum products. It is objectionable that the prices of India are not abated even the price of crude oil has been reduced to one third in the world. If the price of petroleum products decreases, other prices will also come down. Kerala will attend the crisis by increasing social welfare and safety expenditure and by maximising capital investment. The State will take such a stand in the 2009-10 annual project and in the State Budget. Along with, Kerala will sincerely attempt to make the management of CentralState projects more effective. KERALACALLING 9 C O V E R STO RY Counter the Credit Crunch Based on the speech made by Dr. Thomas Isaac, Finance Minister, in the Legislative Assembly on November 24, 2008 I t is certain that global economic crisis would have grave adverse impact on the State economy and in the public life. The situation will worsen in the coming months. Therefore the State Government is preparing plans to face the situation. The Centre for Development Studies (CDS) has been asked to prepare a comprehensive report on the impact of global recession on our regional economy. The budget to be presented in February will address the counter recession measures to be adopted in the State. The Global Crisis will adversely affect Kerala in four different ways. 1. Decline in exports. 2. Fall in price of cash crops 3. Stunted growth in IT and Tourism sectors. 4. After effects of Credit Crunch Decline in exports During the first five months of the FY 2008-09, Kerala’s exports registered remarkable increase. The situation has been reversed in October. This is the indicator of what is in store for the future. Unlike the crisis of 1930s, there 6 KERALACALLING has been a considerable decline in the export of coir. In the thirties, the lower income groups in the western countries turned to comparatively cheaper floor coverings made from coir. In the present context, they are likely to prefer products made from artificial fibre which are cheaper than coir. The four important companies that imported coir in foreign countries are already reported to be bankrupt. Compared to the export in the month of September in 2007 there have been a fall of 16.17 per cent in quantity and a fall of 9.76 per cent in value. While in October there was a fall of 9.72 per cent in quantity and 15.14 per cent in value. It is to be noted that even though rupee has depreciated, the export value in rupee term too decreased during the month of October. This indicates that the demand of coir in western market is decliing. The marine products exports December 2008 registered the sharpest fall. Compared to the export in the month of September in 2007 there has been a fall of 30 per cent in quantity and 31 per cent in value. Dollar value fell by 37 per cent. Cashew exports increased substantially during the first half of this year. But, in October and compared to that of last year, the export declined by 25 per cent in quantity. The dollar value of cashew during the months of June and July was $3.6 per pound has been reduced to $2.66 in the month of October Even though there has been a nine per cent increase in export value, in terms of quantity, the total export of spices during October 2008 was 16 per cent lower than that in 2007-08. In place of 22800 ton pepper exported during April-October 2007, we could export only 14750 ton during the same period in 2008. This means a decrease of 35 per cent in quantity and 25 per cent in value. Foreign traders are reducing their inventory. Even though there has been a nine per cent increase in export value, in terms of quantity, the total export of spices during October 2008 was 16 per cent lower than that in 2007-08. Due to decline in production of tea in Kenya and cardamom in Guatemala, export of these commodities increased. The export of tea from Kerala during 2007 January to July was 3.54 crore kgs. This increased to 4.15 crore kg in the current year. Price has also improved. For the first time in last 14 years it is expected that export of cardamom will exceed 1200 tons. Needless to add, these trends will be reversed once the production in Kenya and Guatemala returns to normal pace. When compared to the previous year, there has been an increase in export of coffee during the first 10 months of 2008. The price of coffee also improved but it declined in October. The collapse of Lehman Brothers, which was a major player in the speculative trading of coffee, triggered the decline in coffee prices. Exports too have started to decline. Fall in price of cash crops As in the case of coir, cashew, prawns etc, the global financial crisis has also affected adversely the prices of rubber and coconut, the two major cash crops of Kerala, sold mainly in the domestic market. This is going to sharply reduce the income level of lakhs of farmers in our state. The price level of rubber, due to globalisation, has not only reduced to the global level but also has been fluctuating according to the changes in the global market price. Recession in car industry and the fall in price of synthetic rubber had pulled down the price of natural rubber. ton in October 2008. Likewise, the price of palm oil declined 41 percent i.e from $1270 per ton in March 2008 to $750 per ton in October 2008. There are still import restrictions on coconut oil. At the same time Central Government is not only permitting unrestricted imports of edible oils like palm oil and soya bean oil without any tariff, but also selling them at subsidised prices through the ration shops. As a result, the recovery The price of RSS-4 rubber fell from Rs.142 to Rs.62 a kg between August 28 and November 21, 2008. In the name of economic crisis, tyre manufacturers have demanded wavier of import tax and to make the imports more liberal. If this is implemented the price of rubber will decline even more sharply. The price of edible oil has nosedropped in the global market. The soya bean oil, which was priced $1554 per ton in July 2008, has went down by 30 per cent reaching $1085 per of prices of coconut oil, from the 2001 crisis, has been stalled and it has started declining once again. December 2008 IT and Tourism Sectors IT and Tourism constitute new sources of economic growth for the State. These two sectors will be adversely affected by the global crisis. It is feared that there will be a 20 per cent decrease in the tourist inflow. Next year the situation will worsen further. The IT sector is expected to lose 25 per cent job opportunities. KERALACALLING 7 The IT sector of Kerala is relatively small even though it is growing at a fast pace. Therefore, we are more concerned about the deceleration in investments of this sector rather than the reduction in job opportunities. After effects of Credit Crunch An important distinctive feature of the current economic crisis is the credit crunch. Banks are reluctant to provide credit. On 31st October 2008 the total bank credit in India was Rs 26,34,893 crores. Annualised it would constitute 29 per cent of growth. However, during AprilOctober 2008, bank loan increased only by 10.7 per cent. Further, it is also reported that the credit outstanding declined by Rs.16,630 crores between October 31st and November 7th. Credit crunch adversely impacts on exports. Instead of providing discount facilities, the practice of sending the documents to the bank for collection has become order of the day. It indicates that the mutual confidence among financial institutions has eroded. There are many complaints about reduction in credit limit. The trade loans for traders have been cut down. All these factors have negatively affected the exports and production. Aftermath of the Crisis increase in unemployment. One and a half lakh people will lose employment in the traditional industries and plantation sector. Since the traditional industries are unorganised, unemployment will be disguised as reduction in the number of working days than open unemployment. This would adversely affect the standard of living and income of the poor people in these sectors. There will be loss of employment in the tourism and related sectors. The service sectors will also be negatively affected by the crisis. On the one hand, while the rate of decrease in prices of almost all the commodities sold by Kerala occurs rapidly the decline in prices of commodities like rice, sugar, steel, cement etc imported by Kerala decreases only at a slower rate. Except for a small percentage of people, ration has been denied by the central government. The Keralites have to depend on the open market. If we consider the increase in prices from ration shop to open market it can be seen that the prices of food grains has gone up steeply. This situation will adversely affect the terms of trade of Kerala and thus will accentuate the economic crisis. The Global meltdown has affected the Middle East. It is certain that the fall in oil prices and bear slide in Gulf stock markets will adversely affect the job opportunities and wages of migrant workers. It is also worth considering whether the Gulf Malayalis would save their earnings in depreciating rupee or in some other foreign currency. As a result, the economic growth of the State which was 8.1 per cent in 2006-2007 may decline to around 6 per cent. This estimate is drawn by assuming that the service sector will not be seriously affected soon by the crisis. The above-mentioned situation will severely impact the life of ordinary people. The first problem is the 8 KERALACALLING December 2008 Remittances from the Gulf It is to be highlighted that the level of decline in the total income of the State will not be as severe as decrease in the domestic production. Thanks to the depreciation of rupee, it is expected that there would be an increase in the income from Gulf in terms of rupees. During 2007-08 it was around Rs. 34 –36 thousand crores. Estimates of some experts have indicates that due to depreciation this would increase up to Rs.38 –42 thousand crore during current FY. The global meltdown has affected the Middle East. It is certain that the fall in oil prices and bear slide in Gulf stock markets will adversely affect the job opportunities and wages of migrant workers. It is also worth considering whether the Gulf Malayalis would save their earnings in depreciating rupee or in the some other foreign currency. When these factors are also considered, the estimates on income from the Gulf need to be moderated. Furthermore, the benefits of Gulf income will not be directly available to all. The fall of traditional sectors will worsen the condition of the poor in the State. Counter Cyclical Measures The above-mentioned factors point to the significance of formulating a comprehensive plan for protecting the poor and employment opportunities and income for them. But in the federal set up of India, the state governments are severely constrained to undertake this task. The state governments cannot take recourse to deficit financing or even take recourse to market borrowing without the permission of the central government. There is a possibility of shortfall in the Central Tax share and the State's tax revenue due to the economic down turn. There has been a decrease in the tax received from stamp duty, rubber and vehicles during the month of October. The Central Government should raise the borrowing limits of the state governments. Nevertheless we shall adopt the following measures: Firstly we should be able to take immediate steps to protect the poor in the traditional sector. For this purpose, the social security measures including public distribution should be strengthened. Central aid should be made available for this. Secondly, the National Employment Guarantee Scheme should be broadened, focussing the unemployed in the traditional sector. This scheme should be implemented in the form of a campaign in connection with Food Security Programme, Social Forestry and Sanitation. Changes should be made in the criteria so that they are more appropriate to the conditions of Kerala. Thirdly, large-scale investment should be made for the development of infrastructure which includes roads, bridges, parks, public buildings etc. The Central Government should be ready to enhance the credit limit of the State immediately for this purpose. Fourthly the NRI deposit schemes should be made more attractive. This would help in lightening the credit crunch in Kerala. Banks should change their approach. Co-operative sector should be strengthened. We are devising a Rs.2000 crore total housing programme with housing loan from co-operatives. It is indeed a model global recession programme even at the national level back drop of the crisis. Fifthly import of rubber should not be liberalised. The subsidies given to other edible oils should also be made available to coconut oil and import of the former must be controlled. Support price should be announced immediately for unhusked coconuts in the new season. Sixthly, steps should be taken to expand the domestic market for the products of traditional export industries, even if this effort will be constrained by the economic slow down. December 2008 Contd. from page 5 Downthrow Market Fundamentalism bundles of ideologies of market fundamentalism and neo liberalism. It has to recognise the part of administration and public sector in the leadership also. I remember here that the Centre has done Herculean task to cut down the government expenditure and economic deficiency only for attracting speculative trading capital. This is the time to give up the fundamentalism about economic deficiency and to increase government’s investment on capital. There is no other means in giving solace to the public and revitalising the hope of investors. The news that Central Government is preparing to increase public capital investment is worth welcoming. But the states also are to be permitted to do the same. The states should be released immediately from the nose-string of Financial Responsibility Bill. Restriction to borrow should be revoked. States should be evaded from compelling to take foreign debt and be permitted to borrow from domestic market. The problems created by foreign aid projects need not be mentioned here. All economic powers stolen from states as part of neo liberalisation policy should be reinstated. As part of bringing solace to the public, the Central Government should get ready to cut down the controlled prices of petroleum products. It is objectionable that the prices of India are not abated even the price of crude oil has been reduced to one third in the world. If the price of petroleum products decreases, other prices will also come down. Kerala will attend the crisis by increasing social welfare and safety expenditure and by maximising capital investment. The State will take such a stand in the 2009-10 annual project and in the State Budget. Along with, Kerala will sincerely attempt to make the management of CentralState projects more effective. KERALACALLING 9 C O V E R STO RY V Santhakumar Impact Unpredictable E ssentially, there are two dimensions of the crisis that can have an impact on Kerala: liquidity crisis in financial institutions including banks and possible recession – or the compression of economy of the developed world. These aspects impact a region like Kerala through different channels such as availability of credit to consumption and production in Kerala, prices or the demand for exported products and services (like IT/ITES) from the state, prices of commodities imported for consumption or production within Kerala, arrival of tourists in the state, remittances from the Non-Resident Keralites, prices of commodities like steel, cement, petroleum products 10 KERALACALLING used as intermediate inputs and opportunities to attract foreign direct investment to Kerala. However the influences of all these factors are mediated through the changes in exchange rate of Rupees. For example, the international price of a cash crop exported (like pepper) may decline, but the rupee value of the export income may not decline that fast due to the depreciation of rupee against dollar. There are many reasons why one can expect a compression of the credit availability despite the measures taken by the Union Government. In general lenders may become more risk averse given the experience of sub-prime crisis in US. This may affect loan December 2008 disbursal to buying homes and cars and also for other consumption durables. This in turn can affect economic activities like construction and real estate business. However one can expect that there will be moderation of this credit contraction due to the availability of more liquidity with banks due to the measures taken by the Union Government, a possible reduction in interest rates due to decline of inflation, and also by the fact that Indian banks may not face a significant shortage of deposits due to the perceived safety. There can be a decline in the credit demand due to the excessive caution by ordinary borrowers and this can also reduce the There can be some decline in the demand for cash crops and fish from Kerala due to the recessionary conditions in the developed world. negative impact of decline in credit availability. There can be some decline in the demand for cash crops and fish from Kerala due to the recessionary conditions in the developed world. This depends on how much the citizens of developed country reduce their consumption of cashew, pepper, fish, etc. thanks to the possible decline in income (or job losses) due to recession. Such reduction, if occurs, can have a negative impact on the revenue to the growers and exporters of such commodities. This can be partly moderated through the depreciation of rupee against dollar. A possible reduction in the demand for software and outsourcing services can also occur in the developed world. However, there will be more pressure to reduce costs on the developed country firms during recession, and this can be an added incentive to continue or increase outsourcing. Regarding the prices of commodities imported for consumption/production in Kerala, there are two types. The financial crisis is likely to lead to a reduction of prices of oil, cement, steel, etc. due to the slackening of global demand. For those commodities, imported by India, this favourable impact of reduction in prices may be offset partly by the appreciation of US dollar. However, there can be a net reduction of the price of these commodities, and this can reduce the cost of production here. Regarding imported consumption in Kerala, a major item is food, for which there may not be a substantial reduction in prices. On the other hand manufactured goods coming to Kerala may in general be available at lower prices. The remittances are affected by a number of factors: depreciation of rupee may not reduce the rupee equivalent of remittance even if there is some reduction in the dollar value; there can be some diversion of NRI investments from elsewhere including stock markets and mutual funds to normal deposits in Indian banks, December 2008 however if the oil prices decline drastically and if the recession continues in developed world, the investments in construction in middle-east countries may come down (or may not have the same growth in a situation where there is no crisis) and this can have a negative impact on the jobs and income of NRKs and the remittances from them. The arrival of tourists can also be expected to go down, though the full impact of the recession on tourism will not be evident immediately since India has became cheaper recently for foreign tourists due to rupee depreciation. The foreign direct investment to India as a whole may decline, but its impact on Kerala may not be that significant since the state is not anyway a major destination of such investments. The net effect of all these changes on Kerala economy is difficult to predict. However a two or three per cent points of reduction in the growth rate of Kerala economy should not be a surprise, if the crisis persists for a minimum period of six months. The long-term impact, if there is contraction in investments in middle-east countries (due to low price of oil) and continued recession in developed countries, can be much more adverse. The writer is Associate Fellow, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram 695 011 KERALACALLING 11 C O V E R STO RY I n an increasingly globalised world order, no regional economy is immune to the developments at the global level. This is particularly so in the case of regional economies like that of Kerala, which is heavily dependent on external remittances. Keynesian prescription for kick Jose Sebastian are rather limited. It has to mobilise more resources and increase public expenditure. Focusing on commercial taxes, which contribute nearly 70 per cent of own revenue of Kerala, this article discusses the options before Kerala to tide over the impact of the global financial crisis. of social and community services. Public expenditure on education, public health and social welfare payments account for bulk or Kerala’s public expenditure. It is this expenditure pattern that has created what is internationally known as ‘Kerala Model of Development’. But Dependence on Commercial Taxes due to paucity of resources, the State is finding it difficult to maintain the quality of many of its public services. Onset of the recession as made matters worse for the State. The choice before the State is to mobilise more resources and thus supplement the efforts of those sections of the society, which are more vulnerable to the impact of recession. But from the point of mobilising resources, Kerala has certain inherent disadvantages. Kerala is industrially backward and therefore is not able to mobilise much revenue through taxation of industrial raw materials and intermediate goods. Most of the agricultural products are exported out of the country and the State cannot tax exports. Therefore the Kerala has to tap the potential of the consumption sector to the hilt. up Yes,we can boost starting a recession griped economy is increasing government expenditure and this is possible only by mobilising resources by the State. While a national government can consider several options in this context including printing of currency, the choices of a sub-national government 12 KERALACALLING The Centre-State financial relations in India involve a certain degree of imbalance between revenue raising powers and expenditure responsibilities of states. It has been pointed out that the successive Finance Commissions have not fully succeeded in correcting this imbalance. Though the states are overburdened with expenditure responsibilities, the only elastic source of revenue at their disposal is commodity taxes. Commodity taxes like Value Added Tax (VAT) and sales tax account for almost 65 per cent of own tax revenue of states. In the case of Kerala, this is as high as 70 per cent. However, compared to most Indian States, Kerala’s public expenditure has a higher proportion December 2008 There is misconception that in a recessionary phase government should reduce taxes and leave more liquidity with the people. On the other hand, if government mobilises more resources and spends, the overall liquidity level of the economy increases and this activates the productive sectors. The fact cannot be denied that the consumption sector of the State offers considerable potential for resource mobilisation. According to the latest consumer expenditure data brought out by National Sample Survey Organisation, Kerala stands top among major Indian states in household consumption. Scientific studies have shown that the commodity tax potential of the State remains largely untapped. The level of tax evasion/ avoidance in Kerala by any standards is quite high. The key to fighting the global recession thus lies in increasing public expenditure because in a recessionary phase private expenditure will shrink. Individuals will try to reduce spending as a strategy to tide over the recession. Therefore government should step in and pump in additional liquidity to keep up the level of economic activity. This is possible only by tapping the potential of commercial taxes to the hilt. There is misconception that in a recessionary phase government should reduce taxes and leave more liquidity with the people. This however is not supported by any evidence. On the other hand, if government mobilises more resources and spends, the overall liquidity level of the economy increases and this activates the productive sectors. This is not difficult to understand. Government expenditure on salaries, welfare pensions and infrastructure increases the purchasing power of those section of the population whose propensity to consume is very high. For the same reason, tax evasion in a recessionary phase is selfdefeating. Evasion will force government to reduce expenditure, which in turn will cause glut in the consumer goods market. The traders will soon find that the stocks on the shelves are not depleting. While tax evasion by an individual trader may be temporarily beneficial to him/her, tax evasion by the trading community as whole is detrimental to their own interests. But governmental efforts at checking tax evasion anywhere is fraught with problems. In the context of Kerala, there are inherent difficulties for the government to go ahead with an aggressive programme of preventing tax evasion. First and foremost, almost 80 per cent of manufactured consumer goods are imported into the State. Though check-posts are established in almost all entry points into the State, a wilful tax evader can find newer and newer methods of hoodwinking the tax collector. It is almost impossible to establish check-posts in front all the railway stations in the State. Of late certain provisions relating to booking parcel through the railways have made matters more difficult for the tax administrator. All these point towards one fact. A culture of paying taxes voluntarily has to be inculcated in our society. Perhaps government may have to unleash a massive campaign to educate the masses about tax consciousness. Some of the recent initiatives of Government of Kerala like ‘Lucky VAT’ hold considerable promise in this context. The trader’s organisations also have big role in creating tax consciousness among their members. Thus through a concerted effort of Government and people, it is indeed possible to tide over the challenges posed by global recession. Kerala has the necessary social capital for such an endeavour. The writer is senior faculty member, Centre for Taxation Studies, Thiruvananthapuram December 2008 KERALACALLING 13 C O V E R STO RY B y year's end the impact of the global financial crisis will be felt with a slowdown in all emerging economies. These growth declines could have significant effects on the world's poorest populations. The World Bank estimates that one percent decline in developing country’s growth rates traps an additional 20 million people in poverty. Concern centres on India and China, the world's two most populous nations and the largest contributors to reductions in global poverty in the last two decades, according to many academic studies. Reduced economic growth in both countries could reverse poverty alleviation efforts and even push more people into poverty, say some experts. The glaring inequalities in agricultural trade are the result of unjust reforms. Trade in Agricultural commodities and food products is directly linked to the survival of nearly 70 per cent of the populations in developing countries. Dr M Subramonia Iyer Liberalisation of the farm sector has already witnessed import surges. Agriculture commodity imports have gone up by 300 per cent between 2000 and 2004. Agricultural commodity trading on exchanges is likely to drop about 50 per cent to touch Rs 6.5 lakh crore this year as compared to Rs 13 lakh crore in 2006-07 due to the slowdown. The new global economic outlook report projects growth in developing Asia as a whole to fall from 9.3 percent in 2007 to 7.1 percent in 2009, and similar trends across most of the world's major emerging markets and the global economy, the bullion accounted for agricultural commodity trade is being 23 per cent. Considering the increasing prices of wheat, sugar, edible oils, it is believed that government has compromised on growth and decided to cut import duty on all edible oil in crude form to zero percent with immediate effect from March 31, 2008. Rising demand in global market, global warming, bio fuel production, hot commodity market and price rigging at futures trading marts are said to be the reasons for soaring commodity prices in India. The government aims to reduce domestic prices by allowing free flow of products from the global market. The Government of India’s decision to withdraw export incentives of many items including spices, have a negative impact on the farmers. Make it farmer centric 14 KERALACALLING December 2008 The new global economic outlook report projects growth in developing Asia as a whole to fall from 9.3 percent in 2007 to 7.1 percent in 2009. October this year was the worst month in history for commodities. The S & P’s GSCI Agriculture index declined by 17.3 per cent as many farmers chose to store grain and wait for better prices rather than sell at current levels. Setting up a time-bound National Food Security Mission by enhancing production of wheat, rice, pulses and edible oils comes at a time when the Government itself is lowering the custom tariff, thereby allowing cheaper imports. India was almost self-sufficient in edible oils in 199394. Ever since the government began lowering the tariffs, edible oil imports have multiplied turning the country into the biggest importer. Small and medium farmers growing oilseeds including “coconut” and that too in the rainfed areas had to abandon production in the light of cheaper imports. In the international market, rice is traded under two main categories – fragrant and non-fragrant rice. Basmati rice is the most preferred fragrant rice and India dominates its trade. However, despite these reasons, rice prices had followed a steady but sluggish rising trend particularly when compared to other bulk commodities such as wheat and corn. What triggered a sudden price rise was mainly export restrictions imposed by various exporting countries. Weather related production shortfalls have also resulted in increasing import demand. This put pressure on rice exporting countries, where prices started rising in the domestic market prompting their governments to impose export restrictions. Rice production in India is likely to exceed 94 million tonnes, despite unseasonable rains in southern states like Kerala and Andhra Pradesh in March this year. This bumper crop together with strict government controls on exports is expected to ease prices by the end of this year. However, till then, it is most likely that prices will remain firm. Besides online trading, unofficial trading of many agri products - in The international community needs to act urgently to strengthen the credibility and resilience of the international trade system. which speculators are not required to maintain margins and also do not to pay transaction fees or taxes - is popular at our national exchanges. The government's Forwards Marketing Commission has been unable to regulate this trading. Farmer’s organisations and food security specialists maintain that unchecked trading and speculation have played a pivotal role in the spiraling prices of food staples in India. It is high time the government December 2008 rejected this neo-liberal and corporate-led agriculture model and replaced it with a farmer-centric one. The ultimate solution to the problem of current food prices is to improve production and productivity. There should be rates of protection to farmers which are basically a ratio of the domestic price that a farmer gets to the import parity or export parity price of the same product, and same quality, depending on whether the commodity under consideration is being imported (is importable) or exported (is exportable). Effective Subsidy Coefficient (ESC) is a better measure than Effective Protection Coefficient (EPC), and in turn EPC is better than NPC to measure the true degree of competitiveness of the relevant commodity. The international community needs to act urgently to strengthen the credibility and resilience of the international trade system. Short term measures, such as export bans aimed at protecting domestic consumers being implemented in countries like India, can further destabilise markets and punish countries that depend on imports for their food security. And hence what is needed is the most stable and transparent trade rules, which can support the resilience of food systems and promote durable food security. A true reform in agriculture is only possible when the global community accepts the guiding principle that food for all is an international obligation. The writer is Associate Director of Research, Kerala Agricultural University, Thiruvananthapuram KERALACALLING 15 C O V E R STO RY P Mara Pandian IAS F iscal autonomy brings multiple tax rates and narrow base across Indian States, hence is an obstacle for a hasslefree tax administration. These differences cause resource allocation distortions (productive inefficiency) and consumer prices (consumption inefficiency). It also affects the fiscal autonomy of the States. Administration of different taxing statutes and multiple levies brings the need for various checks and balances for effective co-ordination to boost-up revenue augmentation of the State. These will surely water-down imbalances in the economy of the States, market fragmentation, and create a level play ground for trading sector. It is particularly so, with reference to the State of Kerala since we have a consumer base and revenue structure largely dependant upon retail trading market. The necessity for self policing and voluntary compliance, call for a modern accounting pattern from the trading sector in respect of goods consigned into our State for trading. The border Commercial Tax check posts in the State play a vital role in this regard. These Check posts are established in the State based on the statutory provision viz. Sec.46 of the Kerala Value Added Tax, 2003. Success of effective VAT enforcement largely depends on the cross verification of goods consigned into the State for sale and outflow of interstate sale of goods. In the VAT scenario, a national platform was created named "TINXYS" for sharing and tracking information of goods vehicles with particular reference to the commodity movement across the Indian States. The success of information sharing from the national platform would largely depend on uploading data into the TINXYS system on real time mode. For e.g., an officer in Kerala can cross- Preventing Tax Evasion check the genuineness of transactions effected by a dealer in Kerala from Rajasthan on any particular day using the TIN number of either Kerala or Rajasthan dealer. The statutory forms issued by the consignor, dealer or consignee dealer can be cross-matched or cross-verified, if the system information is readily available. This will stop unethical trade practices of using bogus statutory forms, TIN numbers and false claims. In other words, 16 KERALACALLING trade sector will be compelled to account all its business transactions in the regular books of accounts. The State Government will certainly switch over to this system in the near future. Revenue collection from 1993-94 to 2007-08 shown below would loom large the importance of strict cross matching of goods bought into the State which would yield first point tax revenue on sale. As a preventive measure to tax evasion, State December 2008 All consignments intended for clearance through the notified area shall possess a tax invoice or delivery note or certificate of ownership containing the particulars of goods in the vehicle. District wise Check post collection details from 2005-06 to 2007-08 (in Lakhs) No of Checkposts District TVM KLM IDK MATTY TSR PKD MLP KKD WYND KNR KSGD TOTAL 2005-06 1188.18 1066.45 245.39 199.58 47.17 11055.5 240.2 226.79 743.29 393.24 4295.32 19701.13 2006-07 1458.14 1457.28 301.28 503.09 49.71 11295.7 239.44 298.59 1177.16 414.34 4270 21464.68 2007 -08 1663.12 1691.69 314.99 202.79 60.35 12132.09 170.60 225.25 1200.32 341.70 4482.71 22485.61 Governments are competent to set up check posts in the notified area. All consignments intended for clearance through the notified area shall possess a tax invoice or delivery note or certificate of ownership containing the particulars of goods in the vehicle. Legislation also contemplates additional documents such as report issued by the scanning agency and Border 13 2 4 1 13 1 1 11 6 15 67 Internal 1 1 2 4 Total 13 2 4 1 2 13 1 3 11 6 15 71 weighing agency, if any. Thus, checkposts play an important role in the current tax enforcement systems. The sales tax check-posts provide information on imports by different producers, preventing duty evasion even after imports. Under VAT, declassification of domestic sales as exports needs to be curtailed. In tune with modernisation and the time December 2008 need, we are planning to introduce check-post plazas, integrating Police, Excise, Transport, Forest and Other State Government agencies from time to time. A state-of-the-art integrated development programme planned by the State is the first in the country to go ahead with the modernisation for revenue augmentation in the VAT scenario. The designs essentially consist of rationalised traffic flow patterns, data capture via automatic devices like computer linked weighbridges and cameras, online data capture at check-posts and information sharing and computerised selection of vehicles for physical checks. To improve cost recovery at citizen's convenience, value added service facilities such as food and beverage services, toilets and baths, retiring rooms, Internet and telephone services, tourism and road repair services etc. are being planned. Contd. on page 29 KERALACALLING 17 Contd. from page 17 Contd. from page 23 These could be utilised even by non commercial vehicles. Some services could possibly be outsourced. This would lead to reduce budgetary costs, even possibly self-financing check-posts. Given the limited capacity at check-posts, selection for checking could be for a risk-based sample by instituting green and red channels. Furthermore, selected firms and dealers with excellent track records may be assigned a 'green dealer' status, resulting in the automatic green channel treatment. This status will be periodically reviewed to avoid tax fraud and misuse. All consignments intended for export, advance processing of paper work and documents would be instituted on the basis of electronic documents from transporters. This reduces the waiting time at checkposts leaving other enforcement checks unaffected. Traffic bottleneck at the border check posts would be fatal to the economic growth of the State and the tourism industry in particular. In the VAT scenario, checking of both incoming and outgoing vehicles is required at the State borders. Consequently, an 40% of households lost 80 percent of their net worth. The highly mobile finance capital has sucked up domestic capital from all over the world through a variety of neoliberal instrumentalities. Occasionally veiled threats too have been employed. The differential profitability of global capital drives it from place to place leaving behind a trial of economic crisis in respective countries. The growth of information technology has immensely benefited the capitalist fund managers. At the click of a button, billions of dollars could be transferred from one country to another or from one share to another. New financial innovations like hedge funds and derivatives have taken speculation to new heights, higher than the stockmarket trade. Derivatives are shadow financial instruments that includes futures, options, forwards trading etc. According to the Bank of International Settlement, as of September 2008, the total value of derivative trade stood at a staggering $600 plus trillion. It was only $100 trillion in 2002. Thus the ‘shadow economy’ is 12 times larger than the global GDP ($50 trillion) and more than six times larger than the actual trading in shares in the world’s stock exchanges ($100 trillion). If one takes into account the trading outside the commodity exchanges, the total value of the finance capital is 40 times as large as the global GDP. It is unlikely that India would make a major policy shift in the face of economic crisis. As part of the neoliberal economic policy which the government uncritically accepted in the early 1990s, across the board ‘reforms’ were made in the financial, banking, commercial and other developmental sectors. The state-centric welfare regime was dismantled replacing it with a highly exclusive neoliberal governance structure which provided the necessary legitimacy. Despite the resistance from the Left, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was going ahead with the Tarapore Committee recommendations regarding capital account liberalisation. The RBI, by easing the regulatory regime, was taking the nation to a precipice. Similarly the government has not banned the use of Participatory Notes, a non-transparent derivative instrument used by FIIs to invest in Indian capital markets. The new Banking Regulation (Amendment) Bill, if made into law will further increase the economic vulnerability. The governments’ attempt at investing the pension funds and provident funds in the stock market has invited wide criticism. Our political leadership in Delhi repeatedly reassumes the nation that the economic crisis has only marginally touched India and that it would register a 7-8 per cent growth in the current year. This is far from truth. Indications have already come that there will be massive retrenchment from the productive sectors. The crisis will affect the rapid growth sectors like IT and tourism. This will particularly be disadvantageous to Kerala. Similarly the State’s exports will fetch a lower price in the international market. The price of rubber has almost halved. Kerala’s export of trained manpower to other countries too will be affected. Preventing Tax Evasion How Risky even the symptom Latest trends in tax audit depend on the extent of adoption of modern accounting methods by tax business community and the constant use of bank mediated payment mechanisms (clearing house, book-transfers and credit cards). arrangement with states sharing common borders to undertake checking in any one direction and to share information perhaps on a fee-for-service basis is also planned. This will have all round cost reduction and calls for corruption free environment in the border check post. A corruption free check post was a dream which has come into reality - Palakkad mission, a mile stone in the historic annals of the Commercial Taxes Department, Government of Kerala and a clean roll model to other states in the build up of our Nation. Latest trends in tax audit depend on the extent of adoption of modern accounting methods by tax business community and the constant use of bank mediated payment mechanisms (clearing house, booktransfers and credit cards). Transactions leave an ‘audit trail' which can be used effectively in cross-matching the transactions of different traders through the check post information as a primary tool. It also permits easier detection and verification of payments. This dream vision will turn into reality only if the checkpost information is reliable and constantly applied by the department for building a self-policing trade world for the real term economic growth of Kerala. The writer is Secretary (Taxes) and Commissioner of Commercial Taxes, Government of Kerala December 2008 The author is Reader, Department of Political Science, University of Kerala KERALACALLING 29 C O V E R STO RY E M Najeeb Tourism Traffic Hopeful the scene T here is no truth in saying the global economic slowdown has not affected us. It is surely having a slowing effect on the Tourism Industry in India. The Tourism source markets fall in the regions of the developed countries that are directly affected by the melt down. We have even otherwise been affected by the inflation, higher airfares and such problems. To add to the misery, recently few countries including the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany have sent out advisories to their citizens to avoid travel to India because of the terrorist explosions and communal unrest taken place at various locations in the country. The tourist inflow to India has been reduced by 20 per cent. Kerala is a popular destination in India and the slowing down in the tourist traffic to India has a proportionate negative result in terms of arrivals. But luckily for the industry many feel that, this effect on Kerala’s Tourism is much lesser than what was expected. The slowdown is mainly 18 KERALACALLING seen in the corporate travel and incentives and at the lower levels of the tourist strata. But the upmarket segment is still on the move for leisure and holidays. Hotels in India are considered to be highly priced, especially at the metros and main tourist locations including Kerala. For the hospitality sector it is a tight situation during this period of economic slow down. The tourism industry feels that there is a need for price correction to keep the flow going. The domestic airline scene is facing a serious crisis. During the last few months the number of domestic passengers has slumped by 20 per cent. The various airlines have reduced the seat capacity by 20 to 25 per cent. Still many airlines are operating with almost 40 per cent of the seats vacant. But Kerala has not shown a slump of that magnitude yet. The reduction in passenger traffic is only two to five per cent. The primary reason for the slowness in the airline travel is the December 2008 increase in the airline fares. Within the last one-year the fares have increased even up to three fold. The increase was primarily because of the increase in price for the Aviation Turbine Fuel. Taxes are also quite high. Fuel charges are high in India as compared to many other countries. The airlines are struggling to keep themselves afloat and in the process they may pull out many flights, especially those going to second and third level cities. In spite of all this gloom the tourism industry in India and Kerala are quite hopeful and optimistic. The overall thinking in the industry is to at least remain at par with the productivity of the past year if not having an increase. Some industry players are even aiming at a 20 per cent growth. The black smoke is only a temporary phase and we should learn to overcome this challenge. Kerala is also a destination of FIT latecomers, who book their travel a short period before the trip. Beginning of this season would be In this patch of economic crisis, the Government should make efforts to meet the industry players and extend support in all measures to keep the industry going unscathed. It could even provide support by allowing tax holidays and financial assistance. stable as the reservations belong to the last cycle bookings. The season could be still made better if the prices are corrected, so that you get an inflow out of it. The economic slow down in markets like the United States and the United Kingdom, the negative travel advisories issued by major tourism originating countries to avoid India and so on can hinder long haul traffic from those countries. But we need to have strategies to surmount these problems by looking at new markets, triggering off regional tourism and domestic tourism. During all crises hindering tourism, regional tourism has always flourished with short haul flights and family holidays with more people travelling and this would help the industry greatly. We also have a vast domestic market within the boundaries of our country, which can help Kerala flourish with this segment growing. This could be supported by the Indian Railways, which has become an alternative for the struggling airline sector in India. Air-passengers are being lured by the increasing facilities and comforts of the Indian Railways. To summarise, Kerala has not been affected badly, at least in the first half of the season. But the forecast shows that Kerala Tourism will have to face adverse times ahead. Our marketing strategies and promotions should aim at new markets closer to us, which have connectivity to this place. We should strategise to increase marketing efforts from the Far East, South Asia and the Middle East. China also can be looked at as a potential source market. The various lucrative markets within India also should be tapped for Kerala. Kerala Tourism is already into domestic tourism in a big way but still a more focused effort can make it a huge movement. The higher value of dollar against INR should be encouraging for inbound tourism, but if we still raise the dollar tariff or start quoting in terms of dollars, we will forfeit that opportunity. In any crisis that affects the industry we need to take charge of the situation and evolve strategies jointly to tide over the crisis. Creating a positive image of the destination is equally important. In fact the Tourism Industry in Kerala has been greatly December 2008 responsible for creating a ‘Brand Kerala’ image. The continuous promotions and marketing efforts by the State have created an image of a real paradise in the minds of people. The nature, people, culture, heritage and such wealth have already created an awesome impression in the minds of people around the globe. A purposeful effort of image building has to be mobilised by the industry stakeholders, Government, media, political parties and all concerned. Many a times we tend to project the negatives and weakness of the state, ignoring the scores of strengths we have. Thereby destroying the good image of the State and spoiling the confidence and self-respect of the people, especially the youth. In this patch of economic crisis, the Government should make efforts to meet the industry players and extend support in all measures to keep the industry going unscathed. It could even provide support by allowing tax holidays and financial assistance. Media should also extend strength to the industry in this difficult time. If Kerala, in spite of the global economic set back continues its promotions and marketing, results would be seen happening positively. There will be new segments of tourists emerging, showing interest on this destination. The industry should stand together at this juncture and commit itself to self-corrections and harder efforts. The writer is Chairman & Managing Director, Air travel Enterprises India Limited & The Great India Tour Company KERALACALLING 19 C O V E R STO RY B Rajendran I n the wake of recent global financial crisis, the Union Finance Minister made a statement in Parliament. He said that India’s fundamentals are strong because we have not embraced capitalism to the extent that the western countries did. This was an indirect compliment to Left Front Parties for their stand in opposing and blocking the various liberal reforms proposal by the Union Government. The reforms advocated by the Government were in the following areas: Full Capital account convertibility, investing a portion of pension funds into the stock market, reducing Government ownership in PSU banks and allowing take over by foreign banks, releasing the restriction on Participating Notes leading to excessive funds inflow into the stock market and tax waiver to Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). The Left front parties have been consistently opposing these policies. The main reason for the resistance was that it could lead to speculative trading. Now with the financial crisis sweeping the world, their prediction Use head not heart 20 KERALACALLING December 2008 India has been able to avert a major disaster because of the strength of Indian corporates and its structural base. Our regulatory authorities like SEBI, RBI etc. have played a positive role in minimising the damage caused to the Indian economy. have been proved right to a great extent. This has led to a rethinking within the Union Government. India has been able to avert a major disaster because of the strength of Indian corporates and its structural base. Our regulatory authorities like Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Reserve Bank of India (RBI) etc. have played a positive role in minimising the damage caused to the Indian economy. Before the crisis, RBI had advised banks against over exposure to the real estate, credit economist as Vice Chairman of the State Planning Board. He is the only Asian to be included in the fourmember United Nations task-force constituted to suggest remedies to overcome the global financial crisis. He has advised more investment in rural infrastructure and agriculture and strengthening of the Public Distribution System, to help the common men to tide over the crisis. The proportion of amount invested by Keralites in stock market is still very low. The large portion of cards, personal loans and speculative markets. savings of Keralites is in the form of physical assets or financial assets such as real estate, gold, bank deposits, Chitties, PF deposit etc. The investments in stock market are mainly done in three ways. That is direct share investment, Mutual Funds and Unit Linked Insurance Plan (ULIPS). In Kerala, there are around four lakh active direct investors in stock The Kerala Scenario The global economic slowdown is expected to be a setback to Kerala’s export and service industry. Kerala’s future plans for the IT and Tourism sector will also be affected. In this context, Kerala is fortunate to have Prof. Prabhat Patnaik, noted December 2008 market. Their combined holding value was estimated around Rs 12000 crores in January, 2008. Now the value has dropped to around rupees 8000 crores. Investment in Mutual Fund was valued at approximately Rs 4300 crores. It has now declined to around Rs 2800 crores. The holdings of Unit Linked Insurance plan have slipped to around 30 to 60 percent, compared to stock market peak on January, 2008. But the investors, who have been investing in the stock market in a systematic manner on long term basis, are not worried about suffering losses. They will not resort to panic selling. They are willing to wait patiently for the time the market will begin to show an upward trend. The present crisis is a time for rethinking for both the State Government and the investors. Intelligent investment is always aimed at the long term. One should guard against speculative tendencies, which will create unrealistic over-valuing of the stock. The golden rule for the stock market trading is “use your head, not your heart”. Measures must be taken by Government to regain investor confidence in the stock market. A healthy stock market need to be encouraged as it has a significant role in channelising savings to productive sectors. This will in turn increase employment opportunities. It will also hopefully pave the way to bring the State out of its present economic backwardness. The writer is Research Scholar, Institute of Management in Kerala, University of Kerala KERALACALLING 21 C O V E R STO RY Dr Shaji Varkey How Risky even the symptom T he world is currently in the grip of an economic crisis whose real magnitude is yet to unravel. However available trends indicate that the current recession could be much more severe than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Even the World Bank could not hide the fact in its latest World Economic Outlook 2008, saying that the “world economy is entering a major downturn in the face of the dangerous financial shock” and that the “recovery not yet in sight and likely to be gradual when it comes”. This sudden volt face of World Bank, one of the major architects of neoliberal globalism, is to be contrasted with its own position in April 2007. The Bank’s Global Financial Stability Report of 2007 reads: “Financial stability risks have increased moderately in some areas. While none of the individual areas of risk identified constitutes a direct threat to financial stability”. The Report goes on to say that 22 KERALACALLING the “overall U.S. mortgage market has remained resilient”. Subprime Crisis The sudden cause of the recession was attributed to the subprime mortgage crisis that originated in the US and eventually spread to other part of the world. Subprime mortgages simply mean lending to house borrowers with a risk of default or a history of loan delinquency. The banks were enthusiastic in lending the money as the housing and property market was bullish since early 2000. Between 2004 and 2006, $1.5 trillion of subprime mortgage were booked forming 25 per cent of the housing mortgage market. Now comes the second stage. The banks, which financed the mortgages, had packaged their loans into tradable securities (known as securitisation) and sold to hedge funds and investment banks. The US residential mortgage related securities represent one of the December 2008 The sudden cause of the recession was attributed to the subprime mortgage crisis that originated in the US and eventually spread to other part of the world. largest pools of fixed income securities in the world totaling around $5-8 trillion. The selling of housing, vehicular and individual loans as securities is a common practice in the US. The mortgage lenders hoped that they could insulate against loan defaults by spreading the risks through complex derivatives. The housing bubble burst finally in 2008. The collateral is now worth less than the loan. In 2006, 1-2 million household loans were foreclosed, up 42 per cent from the previous year. As markets crumbled worldwide, governments had to step in not only to save the sinking financial institutions but reluctantly to safeguard the fundamentals of the economy. The massive equity injections into the Wall Street had the immediate effect of saving it from liquidation. Though grudgingly, some of the banks had to accept increased governmental control in the management. Citizen groups and political parties had criticised the “pumping of large dose of socialism” into the Wall Street (to help save the transnational financial giants) would starve the main streets, as the money being pumped belongs to the tax payers. The financial giants can grab this opportunity to swallow smaller giants as Bank of America and J C Morgan Chase did when they acquired Merrill Lynch and Wachovia respectively. Who will take care of the economic woes of the ordinary people, caught in the trap of recession? Ascendancy of Finance Capital The current economic crisis is symptomatic of a deeper structural problem so characteristic of December 2008 capitalism. It is the subsumption of real economy under highly speculative finance capitalism. Interest rate is the deciding factor in any economic endeavour. As long as the real interest rate is lower than the real growth rate of GDP and of the marginal efficiency of capital returns from productive investments will exceed the monetary price of capital, and therefore borrowers in financial markets are likely to invest their loans in the real economy. Since the 1980s the real interest rates on global financial markets have exceeded the average real growth of GDP. Various factors contributed to the changeover. Ending of the Bretton Wood system, establishment of a floating exchange rate in place of a fixed exchange rate, US abolition of restrictions on international capital movement, fall of communism and ascendancy of neoliberal ideology etc. are some of the major reasons. In less than two decades from 1980, the global financial capital has completely disembedded from its national moorings and productive functions. In the early 1970s daily foreign exchange trading amounted to $10 billion-$20 billion. By 2000, it went up to $1.6 trillion or 75 times world trade. This increasingly high volume of trade did not bring in a corresponding economic development. US figures indicate that between 1989 and 1997, 86 per cent of stock market gains went to the top 10 per cent households, while between 1983 and 1995 the bottom Contd. on page 29 KERALACALLING 23 Contd. from page 17 Contd. from page 23 These could be utilised even by non commercial vehicles. Some services could possibly be outsourced. This would lead to reduce budgetary costs, even possibly self-financing check-posts. Given the limited capacity at check-posts, selection for checking could be for a risk-based sample by instituting green and red channels. Furthermore, selected firms and dealers with excellent track records may be assigned a 'green dealer' status, resulting in the automatic green channel treatment. This status will be periodically reviewed to avoid tax fraud and misuse. All consignments intended for export, advance processing of paper work and documents would be instituted on the basis of electronic documents from transporters. This reduces the waiting time at checkposts leaving other enforcement checks unaffected. Traffic bottleneck at the border check posts would be fatal to the economic growth of the State and the tourism industry in particular. In the VAT scenario, checking of both incoming and outgoing vehicles is required at the State borders. Consequently, an 40% of households lost 80 percent of their net worth. The highly mobile finance capital has sucked up domestic capital from all over the world through a variety of neoliberal instrumentalities. Occasionally veiled threats too have been employed. The differential profitability of global capital drives it from place to place leaving behind a trial of economic crisis in respective countries. The growth of information technology has immensely benefited the capitalist fund managers. At the click of a button, billions of dollars could be transferred from one country to another or from one share to another. New financial innovations like hedge funds and derivatives have taken speculation to new heights, higher than the stockmarket trade. Derivatives are shadow financial instruments that includes futures, options, forwards trading etc. According to the Bank of International Settlement, as of September 2008, the total value of derivative trade stood at a staggering $600 plus trillion. It was only $100 trillion in 2002. Thus the ‘shadow economy’ is 12 times larger than the global GDP ($50 trillion) and more than six times larger than the actual trading in shares in the world’s stock exchanges ($100 trillion). If one takes into account the trading outside the commodity exchanges, the total value of the finance capital is 40 times as large as the global GDP. It is unlikely that India would make a major policy shift in the face of economic crisis. As part of the neoliberal economic policy which the government uncritically accepted in the early 1990s, across the board ‘reforms’ were made in the financial, banking, commercial and other developmental sectors. The state-centric welfare regime was dismantled replacing it with a highly exclusive neoliberal governance structure which provided the necessary legitimacy. Despite the resistance from the Left, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was going ahead with the Tarapore Committee recommendations regarding capital account liberalisation. The RBI, by easing the regulatory regime, was taking the nation to a precipice. Similarly the government has not banned the use of Participatory Notes, a non-transparent derivative instrument used by FIIs to invest in Indian capital markets. The new Banking Regulation (Amendment) Bill, if made into law will further increase the economic vulnerability. The governments’ attempt at investing the pension funds and provident funds in the stock market has invited wide criticism. Our political leadership in Delhi repeatedly reassumes the nation that the economic crisis has only marginally touched India and that it would register a 7-8 per cent growth in the current year. This is far from truth. Indications have already come that there will be massive retrenchment from the productive sectors. The crisis will affect the rapid growth sectors like IT and tourism. This will particularly be disadvantageous to Kerala. Similarly the State’s exports will fetch a lower price in the international market. The price of rubber has almost halved. Kerala’s export of trained manpower to other countries too will be affected. Preventing Tax Evasion How Risky even the symptom Latest trends in tax audit depend on the extent of adoption of modern accounting methods by tax business community and the constant use of bank mediated payment mechanisms (clearing house, book-transfers and credit cards). arrangement with states sharing common borders to undertake checking in any one direction and to share information perhaps on a fee-for-service basis is also planned. This will have all round cost reduction and calls for corruption free environment in the border check post. A corruption free check post was a dream which has come into reality - Palakkad mission, a mile stone in the historic annals of the Commercial Taxes Department, Government of Kerala and a clean roll model to other states in the build up of our Nation. Latest trends in tax audit depend on the extent of adoption of modern accounting methods by tax business community and the constant use of bank mediated payment mechanisms (clearing house, booktransfers and credit cards). Transactions leave an ‘audit trail' which can be used effectively in cross-matching the transactions of different traders through the check post information as a primary tool. It also permits easier detection and verification of payments. This dream vision will turn into reality only if the checkpost information is reliable and constantly applied by the department for building a self-policing trade world for the real term economic growth of Kerala. The writer is Secretary (Taxes) and Commissioner of Commercial Taxes, Government of Kerala December 2008 The author is Reader, Department of Political Science, University of Kerala KERALACALLING 29 C O V E R STO RY Dr G Simon Thattil, Bobby Simon US Credit Crisis T Fall inevitable he housing bubble and the subsequent financial crisis in the United States of America is a matter of concern for any nation. The housing bubble created by sub-prime credit weakened the US financial sector. Since July 2007 onwards the US credit market started to collapse. The casualty became severe with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the Bank of America taking over Merrill Lynch. The recent development of Citi Group Inc. taking over Wachovia Corporation is an addition to the casualty. The impact of Sub prime is not confined to US alone, the investment banking giant of Europe viz. Fortis is looking out for a bail out package through the intervention of three nations namely Belgium, Luxembourg and the 26 KERALACALLING Netherlands involving 11.2 billion Euros. US Credit Crisis For the last one year, we have heard a lot of terms like 'credit crunch' and 'sub-prime mortgage crisis'. US banks as usual accepts deposits and lend money for an interest margin. Since 2000, there was huge accumulation of money with US banks and interest rates fell dramatically because of excess liquidity. Decline in industrial investment due to economic recession and low level of production were primarily responsible for this. Banks found it difficult to park their funds and the answer in sight was retail finance- home loans, car loans and the like. Lending without assessing December 2008 creditworthiness and risk rating became common. Easy credit created great demand for land to build home. As a result, prices of real estate rose sharply. Banks were desperately in need for avenues for investments and they were ready to lend to more risky ventures. Americans took it as an opportunity and obtained liquidity at very high prices of homes. Banks labelled their less credit worthy borrowers as sub prime and for the increased risk, charged higher rates of interest, thus sub prime lending was more profitable than prime and the profit made this a reckless form of lending. Most of the banks offered loans to people who had bad credit history or less income, to purchase houses. Such loans were called NINJA Loans or loans to The low income and earning capacity of many borrowers made it difficult to repay the loans, the collateral offered were not forth realising and financial institutions went into the red and eventually on to bankruptcy. people with No Income, No Jobs, and No assets. This increased lending lead to a very sharp rise in consumer spending and led to an increase in inflation. Inflationary pressure led to a gradual hike in interest rates. As a result, the cycle of taking loans stopped and the demand for homes started slowing down. As house prices went down most of the borrowers could not provide cover for their mortgage loans. The low income and earning capacity of many borrowers made it difficult to repay the loans, the collateral offered were not forth realising and financial institutions went into the red and eventually on to bankruptcy. It is likely that most of the US banks may write off these loans as bad. Factors Contributed to the Crisis As we know like in the business cycle, a financial system also has boom, depression or recessionary periods. In the periods of boom, as we saw, there is increased financial activity and we experienced it globally. Such a boom period will motivate the investors; the public or even institutions to believe that the beautiful boom period will not end immediately. This baseless optimism is mainly associated with their shortsightedness. This false belief really adds on to the boom by way of extension of credit and more leverage on the expectation of more growth. These actually prolong the bubble and augment the boom period. An associated feature is the under estimation of risk and an aggressive speculative tendency. This moral hazard or in other words the euphoric or over jubilant race by financial institutions ignoring standards in the financial system was one of the major reasons for the current crisis. December 2008 Another important factor that aggravated the crisis is the role of the Government as a regulator and manager of the system; they do not control financial institutions that err on standards. Because Governments are in the pursuit of eliminating unemployment and they believe that a financial crisis will adversely affect their efforts on employment generation. Thus the banks or institutions, which were imprudent in their operations are saved from collapse and the burden of their carelessness is passed on to the tax payer. The Government taking over such units and their nationalisation efforts have indirectly become an incentive to those banks and financial institutions, which were irresponsible during the boom. As we see today, the US Government supports the sustenance of the boom by protecting the finances, which were speculative. KERALACALLING 27 And such speculative finance acts as an accelerator to financial crisis. The third major reason for the current credit crisis is the growth of derivatives market with poor quality underlying assets. Derivates are good but the quality of the underlying asset is significant. In haste for profits, institutions accepted mortgages that were of low worth and created derivatives out of the same. As we have seen in the case of sub prime lenders, they thought that they are free from the risk of potential non performing assets (sub prime loans) by securitisation. Here what derivatives did is not hedging the risk, but created an environment where no one knows who is actually bearing the risk associated with a security and the holder of the security thought that he is immune from the burden of default. The expansion of the derivatives market, without standards for the underlying asset will only increase the magnitude of risk. Issues of Concern for Indian Financial sector There are numerous lessons to learn from the sub prime crisis; basically we need to appreciate the fact that all that glitters is not gold. Induced demand and abnormal consumption cannot sustain a market or a system. India is insulated from the sub prime crisis due to prime lending norms and a good regulatory system, thanks to our regulators like RBI and IRDA. But anything that is global will have its impact here, directly or indirectly. The FIIs in our capital market are net sellers because of the US impact. Our policies on standards and systems need to be fine tuned to meet global shocks. Suitable options for the country and imposing conditionalities is the need of the hour It is evident that the US financial system is almost fragile for a greater financial crisis even if efforts are there to prolong the financial crash. This will definitely affect those financial systems, which are closely integrated with the US financial system. So what we should consider very seriously is the fact that the highly unregulated US financial system is fascinating the Indian financial policy makers to make its financial system more and more deregulated and to make it further integrated with the global It is evident that the US financial system is almost fragile for a greater financial crisis even if efforts are there to prolong the financial crash. This will definitely affect those financial systems, which are closely integrated with the US financial system. 28 KERALACALLING December 2008 economy. We were insulated from the East Asian crisis mainly because we had no capital account convertibility and our financial sector was some what regulated. Today we say with great pride that Indian economy is safe and there is nothing to worry. Those statements are good in a sense to prevent a panic and to keep the investors confidence high. We need to know how much of liberalisation is affordable and how to safeguard the nations interest. We cannot say No to all forms of open operations, let us be open but with good systems. So now it is the time for us to revisit our deregulation and liberalisation initiatives in the financial sector so as to make it safe for the country and sound in operational efficiency. Let us not take one step forward and two steps backward. The promoters of a fully liberalised economy where market is supposed to work now call for better disclosure, better protocols for public use of data and better lending institutions. What we should do now is to make the Indian banking sound and cautious. Proper measures are needed to monitor the housing, personal and vehicle loans as they have the potential to plunge the Indian banking sector into a crisis. Prudential standards for Investments abroad are to be set up by the authorities in order to minimise the exposure of Indian financial institutions by investing in the overseas derivative market. Measures are also required to strict monitoring of FIIs and attract more enterprising FDI in an economy like ours. Above all the need for an international regulatory system that acts as a watchdog for the global financial system is now being felt. Let us remain open to global developments in terms of Financial system impact, Spill over impact, Inflationary impact and Global and Regional recessionary impact. In short, we need Market regulatory mechanisms, Transparency in dealings, Risk management including credit appraisal, risk analysis and wealth management and above all informed decision making. M E D I A A Prabhakaran Let T here is a well known saying that childhood shows man, as the morning shows the day. It is true that every adult has been a child once. It is a sin to adultify the needs rather than the psychological needs of a child. We can speak of that sort of need as love, affection, security, success, freedom and approval. There are physical, emotional and intellectual needs. Nowadays, children acquire knowledge at an earlier age than in the past due to the exposure to pre school and umpteen media especially Radio, TV and Film. Every sphere of human life is liable for change. It is true that all human beings are prone to the phenomenon of changes, but we should say that the younger generation is more vulnerable to the transformation whatever be the experience. This reminds us of the absolute aim of caring for the childhood properly. The respon sibility in order to build up the future of the young ones lies with the elders who fall in two categories i.e. parents and teachers. It is well stated that various forms of art exert unlimited 30 KERALACALLING impact on the child. The creative world opens up by dance, drama, literature etc which will emancipate the child’s mind and help the child to attain and recognise the free individuality which is considered to be the need of the hour. Around the magic world In order to widen the horizon of the child’s mind, he should be in a position to get the light of the letters. He can imbibe the beauty of life stimulated by science literature and a variety of art forms through letters. What is literature? It includes both the book and the reader. It might be said that a child’s literature is a book the child reads. In olden days, children’s literature was not developed as we see it today. The words and syntax of adults may not be suitable for the child. Adults seek for logical presentation but children are fond of a world of fantasy, not reality. We must say the world of children is irrational mostly. The objective of children’s literature irrespective of creative or informative need be woven around some magical events and the December 2008 children’s writer needs to enter their world whole heartedly. It is to be borne in mind that the elders should give their children a literature which may help them to be more useful for the society. If a writer claims to be a children’s writer he should open his eyes and see as the child sees things. The language and style of a good literature for children creates a love for reading in children. The child likes to read loud because he grasps the meaning by the quality of sound Vocabulary of the child has to be taken into account while presenting the work. It is said that the vocabulary of a 10 year old child is estimated to be 5400 words and that of a 12 year old is 7200 words. The writer also should have the general awareness about the vocabulary potentiality and the level of the child. The most significant element of the language for writing for children is words. Tagore has said that the child primarily wants sound. They are deeply moved by hearing sounds particularly of animals which reverberates in their growing mind. the kids see new ways The writer should narrate the fundamentals with easy language with suitable examples added with colourful illustrations. The examples should be taken from the day- to day life of the child. Informative literature for children has to be finally analytical, systematic and logical. It is an undeniable fact that printed books go a long way in imparting education. Knowledge can be imparted to the children through children’s literature and it is the duty of every parent and teacher to inculcate love for books into the minds of young children which in turn will attract their eyes and heart. Media has vital role The role of mass media promoting Children acquire knowledge at an earlier age than in the past due to the exposure to pre school and umpteen media especially Radio, TV and Film. Every sphere of human life is liable for change. It is true that all human beings are prone to the phenomenon of changes, but we should say that the younger generation is more vulnerable to the transformation whatever be the experience. December 2008 children’s literature should not be underestimated. It is a plain truth that the audiovisual mass media and the cyber media are of great use in communicating literary, scientific and art pieces to the coming generation. An array of media gadgets are being utilised for the good of humanity as a whole and children’s education and training in particular. Not only the ears but also the deep penetrating eyes are taken care of in the perception of media which are employed to enhance the curiosity of children. With the latest developments in audiovisual materials, literature does not mean books and periodicals alone, but we have to also accept several different forms of educative experience like slide shows, models, small kits, posters exhibition materials etc. which opens to a growing treasure of knowledge and understanding of the world. We should bear in mind that the children’s literature should go hand in hand with interest pleasure, and freedom to choose or discard. In this context it is quite unfortunate to realise that our printed books based on curriculum poorly made in terms of content and style seldom promotes the interest of the child. Time has ripened enough to equip our school libraries with active communication interactions and media resources which enable them to extent their interest towards KERALACALLING 31 media savvy literature and its manifestations. Modern genera of media combination with promising multi media facilities has grown to such an extent to replace the traditional knowledge based society by digitally competent society as we witness today. This results in the springing up of information rich and information poor societies or digitally divided societies. It is doubtless that today’s children invariably undergo a dynamic transformation from the printed literature to another form of literature which is media based. The The very first word or visual in the audiovisual medium should hold the interest of the audience. Long explanation and preaching down to them will bore the children regardless of how beautiful the language may be. children of tomorrow may not be willing to sit before large volumes of books. A number of miraculous ideas which lie crippled presently, among letters are very much liked by the young minds. The imaginative faculty of letters has to be released free to the lively media. We cannot remain unaware when a change of taste, prevalent among knowledge seekers take place when they utilise the audio cassettes of poetry to assimilate the innate feeling through subtle expressions. The role played by the modern electronic media like Radio, Television, Audio- Video cassettes, Interactive multimedia and Internet content have to be taken into serious considerations when media 32 KERALACALLING intervention of literature is thought of. C I N E M A Media writing for easy consumption It is quite true that we must strive to reconcile with the technological break-through which is likely to culminate in the utility of modern media in the place of good old letters, words and language style which are the back bone of both the literature pertaining to fiction and non-fiction. The phenomenal expression of the technique of Programming through Electronic or Digital media necessitated serious efforts for content development to be disseminated to the children. Radio seems to be the prime sector of mass media which have been promoting children’s literature to a great extent. The supreme significance of sound both articulated and non-articulated has to be recognised. It is entirely possible to combine the main objectives of children’s literature with whole some entertainment and with proper amount of instruction and information. The very first word or visual in the audiovisual medium should hold the interest of the audience. Long explanation and preaching down to them will bore the children regardless of how beautiful the language may be. In short, script for radio and television are essentially different from other media like magazines because it engages both the ears and the eyes. As mentioned earlier, the pivot of any media literature whether it is for children or adults is spoken word in written forms. This particular writing is for easy consumption, hence it should be as transparent as possible. How do we get started on writing for sound media or visual media or both? Let us have a tip here. First pick up an idea then speak it out as if you are chatting with somebody and then write it down in conversational style. Now read it aloud to someone who care. If he shows keen interest on what you have said, good, you have won in the art. The writer was with Prasar Bharathi December 2008 W ar films that instill patriotism among masses are always in demand. People will be mad to see it. And if the popular artistes are in the front role, the enthusiasm of the spectators will be doubled. This could have been the thought of Major Ravi; an Army Officer turned film director, when he made Kurukshetra. The film produced by Santhosh Damodar under the banner of Damor films interestingly reminds us of the original Kurukshetra war where the soldiers fought face to face, killing each other. But there is one dissimilarity, the original one was ‘Dharmayuddha’, but Major’ Ravi’s Kurukshetra is not. Following the footsteps of Keerthichakra, his first box office hit, Major Ravi chose the unfortunate Kargil War as the body of his second film. Scripted by him, Kurukshetra also deals with the sentiments of the soldiers and their households, the ever-repeating depressing stories of the war front, the inevitable deaths, the coffins covered with the tricolour flags that reaches their homes on a fine morning and the core political manipulations and corruption. They are exactly added in the film in predetermined ratios so as to satisfy the popular palate. A group of soldiers (from Kerala!) under the dynamic media savvy literature and its manifestations. Modern genera of media combination with promising multi media facilities has grown to such an extent to replace the traditional knowledge based society by digitally competent society as we witness today. This results in the springing up of information rich and information poor societies or digitally divided societies. It is doubtless that today’s children invariably undergo a dynamic transformation from the printed literature to another form of literature which is media based. The The very first word or visual in the audiovisual medium should hold the interest of the audience. Long explanation and preaching down to them will bore the children regardless of how beautiful the language may be. children of tomorrow may not be willing to sit before large volumes of books. A number of miraculous ideas which lie crippled presently, among letters are very much liked by the young minds. The imaginative faculty of letters has to be released free to the lively media. We cannot remain unaware when a change of taste, prevalent among knowledge seekers take place when they utilise the audio cassettes of poetry to assimilate the innate feeling through subtle expressions. The role played by the modern electronic media like Radio, Television, Audio- Video cassettes, Interactive multimedia and Internet content have to be taken into serious considerations when media 32 KERALACALLING intervention of literature is thought of. C I N E M A Media writing for easy consumption It is quite true that we must strive to reconcile with the technological break-through which is likely to culminate in the utility of modern media in the place of good old letters, words and language style which are the back bone of both the literature pertaining to fiction and non-fiction. The phenomenal expression of the technique of Programming through Electronic or Digital media necessitated serious efforts for content development to be disseminated to the children. Radio seems to be the prime sector of mass media which have been promoting children’s literature to a great extent. The supreme significance of sound both articulated and non-articulated has to be recognised. It is entirely possible to combine the main objectives of children’s literature with whole some entertainment and with proper amount of instruction and information. The very first word or visual in the audiovisual medium should hold the interest of the audience. Long explanation and preaching down to them will bore the children regardless of how beautiful the language may be. In short, script for radio and television are essentially different from other media like magazines because it engages both the ears and the eyes. As mentioned earlier, the pivot of any media literature whether it is for children or adults is spoken word in written forms. This particular writing is for easy consumption, hence it should be as transparent as possible. How do we get started on writing for sound media or visual media or both? Let us have a tip here. First pick up an idea then speak it out as if you are chatting with somebody and then write it down in conversational style. Now read it aloud to someone who care. If he shows keen interest on what you have said, good, you have won in the art. The writer was with Prasar Bharathi December 2008 W ar films that instill patriotism among masses are always in demand. People will be mad to see it. And if the popular artistes are in the front role, the enthusiasm of the spectators will be doubled. This could have been the thought of Major Ravi; an Army Officer turned film director, when he made Kurukshetra. The film produced by Santhosh Damodar under the banner of Damor films interestingly reminds us of the original Kurukshetra war where the soldiers fought face to face, killing each other. But there is one dissimilarity, the original one was ‘Dharmayuddha’, but Major’ Ravi’s Kurukshetra is not. Following the footsteps of Keerthichakra, his first box office hit, Major Ravi chose the unfortunate Kargil War as the body of his second film. Scripted by him, Kurukshetra also deals with the sentiments of the soldiers and their households, the ever-repeating depressing stories of the war front, the inevitable deaths, the coffins covered with the tricolour flags that reaches their homes on a fine morning and the core political manipulations and corruption. They are exactly added in the film in predetermined ratios so as to satisfy the popular palate. A group of soldiers (from Kerala!) under the dynamic Madhu Eravankara Patriotism for Sale headship of the Officer Commanding Colonel Mahadevan fight the Kargil war and win commendably. In a nutshell this is the story of Kurukshetra. The scenes of sentimental outpours are interspersed in between the towering sounds of firing. The silent affair between the native Abbas and his love, the love line of a soldier towards a military nurse, the marital disputes between the military officer Rajesh and his wife, a soldier dreaming of his nearly completed house in his homeland, a soldier’s attachment to his father and the watch are some of the scenes worked out to draw the life of the soldiers apart from the war. But most of the footages are utilised to portray the actual war itself. Of course, we are happy to see the Kargil hills where we fought a triumphant war. A commanding officer with only Malayali soldiers in his battalion! And a border outpost where the Indian soldiers speak Malayalam to their Pakistani counterparts! Look at Colonel Mahhadevan who shouts at the Pakistani army officer in pure Malayalam! Do we have to deem that Malayalam language has no ‘international status ‘? The constant speedy camera movements and fast cutting are, no doubt, inevitable in a war film like Kurukshetra. But neither the cinematographer Lokanathan nor the editor Jaysankar can be excused for the monotony of the frames seemingly repeated with the same zoom movement and editing pattern. And the fragmented shots are even less attractive in the song sequences. One would consider Kurukshetra is made for Colonel Mahadevan enacted by the superstar Mohanlal. Biju Menon and Siddique accompany him in the lead roles. We should not forget that Kurukshetra is based on a real war fought for 40 days with a casualty of 522 lives. Most of the incidents in the scenario had really happened. But in the process of recreation it has turned out to be a mockery of the original war. Frankly speaking, December 2008 Major Ravi has tried to befool the spectators by projecting the unconquerable Kargil heights, but with a treatment quite amateurish. Think of the celebrated war films like ‘Bridge on the River Kwai’ or ‘ Burmese Harp’. Built on the ever-continuing realities of life and death, these films touch our heart with a fingertip quite unknown, but so near. Even without the depiction of the warfront, we experience the trauma and whimper of the redundant wars. They prompt the people repeatedly to say a ‘no’ to the war. But, sad to say, Kurukshetra lacks the credibility and authenticity of a war film, instead fell into the rock bottom of a third rated commercial cinema. KERALACALLING 33 T E C H N O LO GY T he term Artificial Intelligence cannot be explained in a few words or sentences. It is an amalgamation of logic, philosophy and computer technology. Even though man has been included under the category mammals, his status is an elevated one. This is primarily because human beings are blessed with intelligence. A human being has personality, habits, traits, memory etc, which could be horned to a higher degree. This is where humans differ from other creatures. The memory can be triggered which produces brain waves to bring the image or thoughts that may have been stored over a long time. This is an extremely complex process, which happens in the brain. This explains why advances in the area of artificial intelligence are yet to produce a machine, which can simulate the human brain. Chess playing Chess is a game that uses artificial intelligence to produce better systems in game playing. Computer is basically an electronic device that accepts instructions from the user and works on data to produce outputs. In traditional computing, databases are used to store chunks of data that gives useful information. In AI, knowledge bases are used to store information through inferences and dialogues with the user and to update themselves. Chess is a game where moves and positions are very important. A human chess player makes the moves based on previous knowledge acquired or by intuition. Where as in computer simulated games, thousands of moves are calculated using brute force method where the most appropriate move is chosen. 34 KERALACALLING C K Venugopal Artificial Intelligence Decides the future A human plays chess based on expertise and skills, where as a computer plays based on calculations. The most famous of man versus computer chess matches were played between Deep Blue developed by IBM in 1997 and grandmaster Garry Kasparov. The computer won the series 2-1, with three matches being drawn. This spawned a great deal of interest in this area and other machines followed. Deep Blue, with its capability of evaluating 200 million positions per second, was the strongest computer that ever faced a world chess champion. Today, in computer chess research and matches of world class players against computers, the focus is on software controlled chess programmes, rather than dedicated chess hardware. Modern chess programmes such as Rybka, Deep Fritz or Deep Junior are efficient than the programmes during Deep Blue's era. Speech Recognition In the 1990s, computer speech December 2008 recognition reached a practical level for limited purposes. United Airlines has replaced its keyboard tree for flight information by a system using speech recognition of flight numbers and city names during this time that proved very convenient. Speech Recognition is an area where intense research is going on. During earlier days of computing, speech recognition was considered a stiff challenge. This process has been simplified now. The software that converts speech to text essentially relies on the repository which stores commonly used words and its pronunciation. This process is intricate in the sense that the accent may vary from person to person. Hence before it is used, it must be trained with the user’s way of talking. Once this is done, the user can talk on a microphone connected to the computer that translates his words into text. Understanding Natural Language Natural language understanding is an area where lot of ambiguity still exists. This involves recognising the whole text and interpreting its meaning The computer has to be provided with an understanding of the domain the text is about, and this is presently possible only for very limited domains. Natural language processing (NLP) is an area of computational linguistics concerned with the processing of naturally occurring (human) language by computer. Natural-languagegeneration systems convert information from computer databases into normal-sounding human language. Natural-languageunderstanding systems convert samples of human language into more formal representations that are easier for computer programmes to manipulate. Natural language A human plays chess based on expertise and skills, where as a computer plays based on calculations. The most famous of man versus computer chess matches were played between Deep Blue developed by IBM in 1997 and grandmaster Garry Kasparov. processing by computers is still in its infancy. Computer Vision The world is composed of 3D objects, but the inputs to the human eye and computers' TV cameras are 2D. Some useful programmes can work solely in two dimensions. A full computer vision requires partial threedimensional information that is not just a set of two-dimensional views. At present there are only limited ways of representing 3D information directly, and they are not as good as human eye. In robots, cameras convert images into digital format. Expert Systems One of the largest areas of applications of artificial intelligence is in expert systems, or knowledge based December 2008 systems. This is well developed and has proved useful for real time applications. This type of system seeks to exploit the specialised skills or information held by a group of people on specific areas. It can be thought of as a computerised consulting service or an information guidance system. Such systems are used for medical diagnosis or as educational aids. The skills and knowledge of an expert is simulated in a computerised environment providing effective solutions to a problem. The areas where expert systems are used range from disaster warning systems to medical diagnostics. The earliest expert system was MYCIN, which was used for treating blood related diseases as early as 1974. When creating an expert system, a ‘knowledge engineer’ interviews experts in a certain domain and tries to embody their knowledge in a computer programmes for carrying out some tasks. Heuristics classification This is an area where information and knowledge from various sources are classified and focused to provide results in a particular area. For example in the modern world economic crisis is rampant. One of the major reasons why several banks in U.S have collapsed is due to excessive credit payments. Expert systems have been used in a limited way to arrive at a consensus whether a particular person may be issued a credit card or not. His traits and habits are to be studied and recorded so that it may be concluded whether he is capable of repayment. Expert systems using such heuristics in banking areas could have provided a solution to this global crisis. Other areas include decision support systems, public information systems etc. On the whole it can be concluded that Artificial Intelligence applications will play a decisive role in providing real time solutions to various problems humans face. A humane touch along with a technological interface will play a major role in shaping the future. KERALACALLING 35 H O RT I C U LT U R E Venda Standing Tall V enda (Botanical name: Abelmoschus esculentus) known as lady’s finger or okra in English and bhindi in Hindi is one of the popular vegetable crops standing tall in the kitchen gardens of Kerala. It is grown for its tender, nutritious, pointed, ribbed fruits called vendakka, used as culinary vegetable all over the world. India is the largest producer of vendakka in the world and exports this to Middle East, South-East Asian and European markets. It is used in a wide array of stewed, steamed, boiled, curried, roasted, stir fried and pickled dishes. Hundred grams of vendakka contain 3.2 gm dietary fibre, 7.6 gm carbohydrates, 1.8 gm protein, 90 mg calcium, 57 mg magnesium, one mg iron, 0.1 mg carotene, 0.07 mg thiamin, 0.08 mg riboflavin, 0.08 mg niacin and 18 mg vitamin C. The abundant dietary fibre and mucilage in the fruits have important health oriented functions. The fibre helps stabilise blood sugar levels by delaying sugar absorption from the gut and also nourishes the beneficial bacteria in the intestines. Apart from preventing constipation, the slimy mucilage binds and inhibits the absorption of cholesterol, toxins and bile acids. Venda seeds contain 13 22 percent edible oil and 20 - 24 percent protein. The refined seed oil 36 Dr T E George KERALACALLING is used as a substitute for common edible oils and the seed cake is used as animal feed. The dry fruit and stem containing crude fibre can be used for manufacture of paper. A broad spectrum of variability exists in this crop with respect to colour, length, shape and fibreness of fruits. Kerala Agricultural University has released six high yielding varieties of venda namely, Kiran, Salkeerthi, Aruna, Susthira, Anjitha and Manjima with a production potential of around 15 tonnes/ha. Of these, Aruna is unique with its red coloured fruits while all other varieties produce light to dark green fruits. Susthira, a perennial variety ideal for kitchen gardens, is resistant to yellow vein mosaic virus. Arka Anamika of IIHR, Bangalore and Varsha Upahar of HAU, Hissar are two other mosaic resistant varieties that come up well December 2008 in Kerala. Venda excels in warm humid tropical condition prevails in Kerala. Though it can be grown in all the three seasons, best performance is observed during the kharif season. Venda is a direct sown crop. The seed rate and spacing vary from season to season. During kharif, seed rate is seven kg/ha and seeds are sown on ridges at a spacing of 60 cm between ridges and 45 cm between plants. For the summer crop, 8.5 kg seeds are required per hectare and these seeds are soaked in water for 24 hours and then sown in shallow trenches at a spacing of 60 cm x 30 cm. Land is to be prepared to fine tilth by thorough ploughing. Well rotten farmyard manure and basal fertilisers are incorporated into the soil in the ridges or trenches before taking up sowing. The nutritional requirement for this crop is 50 kg nitrogen, eight kg phosphorus and 25 kg potash per hectare, apart from 12 tonnes of farmyard manure. Full quantity of farmyard manure, half dose of nitrogen and full dose of phosphorus and potash have to be applied as basal dose. Remaining half dose of nitrogen is to be applied as top dressing one month after sowing. During dry periods, the crop is to be irrigated at three to four days interval. At least two rounds of weeding have to be done before the crop canopy covers the soil surface. Earthing up of the crop is carried out after top dressing of fertilisers. Harvesting is done when the fruits are young and tender. The fruits will attain harvest maturity four to six days after flowering and become fibrous beyond seven days. It is better to carry out harvesting on every alternate day in order to ensure harvesting of all fruits at the right stage of maturity. Fruits are harvested by bending the pedicel with a jerk. The major pests of Venda are jassids, fruit and shoot borer and root knot nematode and the most serious disease is yellow vein mosaic. An integrated pest and disease management strategy involving use of mosaic resistant varieties, field hygiene, bio-control agents and pesticides of plant origin will adequately protect the crop from these pests and disease. The writer is Professor and Head, Dept of Olericulture, Kerala Agricultural University FLORICULTURE Suresh Muthukulam Wonder in the summer garden G rowing aster flower is one of the wonders of the summer garden. Asters are an easy to grow perennial that grow well in average soils, but needs good sunlight. They come in blues, purples, whites, yellows and a variety of pinks. All asters are yellow in the centre. . Even though they belong to the sunflower family, they look similar to the daisy flower. The yellow centre of Asters is actually composed of tiny florets. Asters come in a wide variety, with some less than a foot tall and others two feet taller. The name Aster comes from the ancient Greek word 'Astron' meaning 'star', referring to the shape of the star-like flower head. There are more than 600 known aster species; but just a few varieties enjoy popularity as cut flowers. Like all plants, aster will reward us with bigger blooms and a healthier plant if plenty of compost is added. Soil should be moist, but not wet. They can withstand dry periods. Water them during dry periods, once or twice per week, to keep growth vibrant. Add much around the plants for appearance and to keep weeds down. The plant can be propagated by division of roots during the rainy season. It is commercially propagated by seeds also. The seeds are sown thinly and covered with compost. The seeds beds are irrigated and the seedlings will be ready for transplanting in about four weeks. Aster blossoms will be ready for harvest within 10-12 weeks of transplanting. Around mid to late summer the plants will begin to produce flowers. Asters make excellent cut flower and can be harvested just when the flowers begin to blossom. With proper care asters enjoy a vase life of 5-10 days. Both large and small varieties make good cut flowers for vases and arrangements. It is used as an addition to a variety of bouquets and floral arrangements due to its abundant flower cluster and wide range of colours. December 2008 KERALACALLING 37 this crop is 50 kg nitrogen, eight kg phosphorus and 25 kg potash per hectare, apart from 12 tonnes of farmyard manure. Full quantity of farmyard manure, half dose of nitrogen and full dose of phosphorus and potash have to be applied as basal dose. Remaining half dose of nitrogen is to be applied as top dressing one month after sowing. During dry periods, the crop is to be irrigated at three to four days interval. At least two rounds of weeding have to be done before the crop canopy covers the soil surface. Earthing up of the crop is carried out after top dressing of fertilisers. Harvesting is done when the fruits are young and tender. The fruits will attain harvest maturity four to six days after flowering and become fibrous beyond seven days. It is better to carry out harvesting on every alternate day in order to ensure harvesting of all fruits at the right stage of maturity. Fruits are harvested by bending the pedicel with a jerk. The major pests of Venda are jassids, fruit and shoot borer and root knot nematode and the most serious disease is yellow vein mosaic. An integrated pest and disease management strategy involving use of mosaic resistant varieties, field hygiene, bio-control agents and pesticides of plant origin will adequately protect the crop from these pests and disease. The writer is Professor and Head, Dept of Olericulture, Kerala Agricultural University FLORICULTURE Suresh Muthukulam Wonder in the summer garden G rowing aster flower is one of the wonders of the summer garden. Asters are an easy to grow perennial that grow well in average soils, but needs good sunlight. They come in blues, purples, whites, yellows and a variety of pinks. All asters are yellow in the centre. . Even though they belong to the sunflower family, they look similar to the daisy flower. The yellow centre of Asters is actually composed of tiny florets. Asters come in a wide variety, with some less than a foot tall and others two feet taller. The name Aster comes from the ancient Greek word 'Astron' meaning 'star', referring to the shape of the star-like flower head. There are more than 600 known aster species; but just a few varieties enjoy popularity as cut flowers. Like all plants, aster will reward us with bigger blooms and a healthier plant if plenty of compost is added. Soil should be moist, but not wet. They can withstand dry periods. Water them during dry periods, once or twice per week, to keep growth vibrant. Add much around the plants for appearance and to keep weeds down. The plant can be propagated by division of roots during the rainy season. It is commercially propagated by seeds also. The seeds are sown thinly and covered with compost. The seeds beds are irrigated and the seedlings will be ready for transplanting in about four weeks. Aster blossoms will be ready for harvest within 10-12 weeks of transplanting. Around mid to late summer the plants will begin to produce flowers. Asters make excellent cut flower and can be harvested just when the flowers begin to blossom. With proper care asters enjoy a vase life of 5-10 days. Both large and small varieties make good cut flowers for vases and arrangements. It is used as an addition to a variety of bouquets and floral arrangements due to its abundant flower cluster and wide range of colours. December 2008 KERALACALLING 37 HEALTHWATCH Dr Sushil Chandran Ensure the Quality A bout three decades ago, while starting my career in Medicine as a medical student, there was a slogan which we used to hear and learn, “Health for All by the year 2000”. Many years of trial and error and dissatisfaction in meeting people’s basic health needs prompted the 30th World Health Assembly in 1977 to set a target to be achieved by the Governments and World Health Organization before the turn of the century. According to this the level of health to be attained should be that which will permit all people to lead a socially and economically productive life. The background to this philosophy was the growing concern about the unacceptably low levels of health status of majority of the World’s population, especially the rural poor and the gross disparities in health between the rich and the poor, urban and rural population both between and within countries. The prime concept was “Equity in Health”. In 1978 the Alma-Ata declaration adopted Primary Health Care as the basis for achieving the goal of Health for all by 2000. Emphasis was on social equity, nation wide coverage, self 38 KERALACALLING reliance and people’s involvement in planning and implementation of health programmes. This health by the people and placing people’s health in people’s hands concept identified the following key points. Education about prevailing health problems, strategies for their prevention and control, proper nutrition, safe drinking water and sanitation, maternal and child health, immunization, prevention and control of endemic diseases, appropriate treatment of common diseases and injuries, and provision of essential drugs to the needy. As a signatory to the Alma - Ata declaration we also formed our national health policy approved by Parliament in 1983 and the States were given greater involvement in management of the health services. Health is multidimensional and influenced by numerous known and unknown factors. Health has a subjective element and is difficult to confine within a single definition. Measurement of health has been framed in terms of illness or lack of health, consequences of ill health and various factors that lead to ill health. To measure the health of the community or that of a population, December 2008 various parameters are used like Birth and Death rate, Infant and Maternal Mortality rate, life expectancy, and literacy rate in general and in women in particular. Health professionals and policy makers also use other indices like Nutritional status, Immunisation, per capita income, housing, and unemployment to objectively assess the health of the community. Political commitment, resource allocation, equity in distribution of health services, and community involvement are the prime indicators of a good Health policy. Doctor - Population ratio, Doctor - Nurse ratio, and Population - Hospital Bed ratio are used as indicators for health care. Health care system of our State attained high standards in terms of basic health needs of the society through a well established Primary Health Care system. The targets like immunization, family planning, reduction in maternal and infant mortality set for the millennium were achieved well in advance. Education and Health were given high priority in Government’s expenditure and this factor helped to achieve this status. We have a long history of organised health care. Development of health services were complemented by provision of safe drinking water and sanitation facilities, promotion of education, and setting up of hospitals even in remote areas. Eight years after the turn of the century, I would like to look at our health care system from a different perspective. Last decade witnessed changes at a very fast pace in many fields like Information technology, Industries, Communication, Travel and tourism, presence of multinational companies in various fields and the so called Globalisation. Health care sector is no exception to this changing scenario. The development in Health Care system started to shift from Public sector to Private sector after the mid eighties surpassing the public sector by a wide margin. Now the scene is more complex than it was two decades ago. Like the Army, Health care system is highly dependent on its man power. Doctors and nurses are not the only people who support and maintain the services of the health care system. Paramedical staffs including nursing assistants, lab technicians, radiographers, pharmacists, physiotherapists, ambulance service, staff in cleaning and maintenance are December 2008 as important as the highly skilled professionals at the upper strata. In fact the strength and coordinated work and service of the chain of personnel are reflected as the quality of the health service. Any weak link in terms of number or quality in this complex chain will affect the final outcome. Even as early as the nineteen sixties girls from Kerala were motivated to take up nursing profession. Large numbers of nurses from Kerala are employed in developed countries. The increasing demand for nurses has resulted in the mushrooming of nursing schools within and outside the State but with a decline in quality of teaching and training. Statistically our doctor to patient ratio is better than the national values. But we do not have sufficient number of doctors in rural areas. Doctor to doctor ratio is also inadequate. There are interdependent specialities where a doctor in one speciality needs the support and service of sufficient number of doctors from another speciality. For example, the ratio of Anaesthesiologists to Surgeons is inadequate. Highly skilled manpower like critical care nurses and doctors are not available as per requirement. With more and more hospitals coming up it is important to solve this problem through proper manpower planning. The investment and the infra structure behind big hospital projects are huge. It may be shocking but true that majority of these institutions is understaffed and forced to depend on inadequately trained staff. There are no guidelines or transparent mechanism with authority for proper surveillance of the system. Nutritional deficiency conditions like Marasmus and Kwashiorkor almost disappeared from our State. We are facing a new challenge of inappropriate nutrition in the form of obesity. Obesity is becoming a problem in our society with associated comorbid conditions like diabetes, hypertension, and heart diseases. A significant number of our children are obese and the situation has breached the socioeconomic barrier. There is an increasing incidence of road traffic accidents in Kerala. Mortality rate following road traffic accidents is among the highest in the country. The magnitude of the problem is underestimated. Strain on the health care system and the burden on the KERALACALLING 39 society for trauma care is significant. We are yet to have a comprehensive trauma care facility. Trained paramedical team, rescue and resuscitation at the site of accident, infrastructure to handle mass casualties and facilities for safe and fast transportation of critical patients to hospitals are grossly inadequate. It is an alarming observation that Kerala has the highest suicide rate and highest per capita consumption of alcohol in the country. There is scope for improving organ transplantation facility in our State. Modern hospitals must give due consideration to this field. for modern blood banking. Significant improvement is urgently required in this field. The State is facing very serious problems with waste disposal facilities. With the growth in Urban population the problem has grown out of control contributing to the prevalence and re-emergence of epidemics and vector borne diseases like dengue, leptospirosis and chikungunya. Kerala has the highest hospital density in India. 25 percent of the hospitals in the country is in our State. The quantity of Bio medical waste produced from hospitals is on the increase. Considering density of Kerala has the highest hospital density in India. 25 percent of the hospitals in the country is in our State. Geriatric care or caring for the aged is another field where we are facing problems. Care of the aged people, is often inadequate or neglected. Nuclear families and absence of a home care delivery system are the main factors Recently there is increasing awareness in providing Palliative care to patients who are terminally ill or suffering from malignancy or cancer. But we are far behind international standards in palliative care. There are about 140 blood banks in our State. One fourth is in government sector and only 20 per cent have state of the art facilities 40 KERALACALLING population and the geographical profile of our land, we have to evolve a proper waste handling policy. There is only one common bio medical waste treatment facility in Palakkad for the whole State. Safety of the hospital staff and their exposure to occupational hazards is another area which has not received sufficient attention. Health care service is being replaced by Health care Industry. When a service sector gets transformed in to an industry, commercial interests will dominate. It is not practical to offer free treatment to the Public. But we can offer cost effective treatment. There December 2008 must be a definitive move to control the prices of medicines and consumables. Some medicines and medical products are sold at 200 per cent to 300 per cent margin of profit. A syringe costing less than two rupees carries a retail price of about six rupees. Price regulation can be achieved only through Public awareness, and government policy decisions. We are still far behind computerisation of various services in hospitals. Majority of hospitals still lack an electronic data entry and retrieval system. It is unfortunate that many Government institutions could not grow in number and quality at a rate to meet the demand of the State. But the Public institutions still play a vital role in man power training. The government sector must take the lead role by setting the highest standards in quality health care. So far we were trying to achieve targets set by organisations for International needs. It is time to set our own targets based on the need of the society. A healthy society in every aspect must be the set goal rather than just treating the sick. Earlier, when religion was strong and science weak, people mistook magic for medicine; now, when science is strong and religion weak, people expect medicine to be like magic. The limitations of this science must be well understood by the public and the media must refrain from creating a conflict in the minds of the people. It is time to re-analyse the problems in our health care system, identify the pit falls and approach the problems with a more realistic attitude. Finally, in my opinion the greatest challenge that we are facing today is to get back the human touch that is lost and to overcome our failure to consider our patients as fellow human beings. The writer is Cardiothoracic Surgeon, Railway Hospital, Chennai. E T H N I C F O O D Indu Narayan Duck Roast Appam Raw rice - 2 cups | Coconut scraped - half cup | Coconut water - half cup | Cooked rice - half cup | Cooking soda - one teaspoon | Oil - to smear the tawa | Sugar - 2 tablespoon or as required Method Wash and soak rice for three hours and wash again. Grind rice, coconut, cooked rice well by adding coconut water and enough water. Add salt, sugar and keep the batter for one night to fermentate. The batter should neither be too thin nor too watery. The next day Add cooking soda and mix wellon the batter next day. Heat a greased appam kadai and pour ladle of the batter in the centre and hold the ends of the kadai, gently rotate and spread the batter. Cover it with a lid. After two minutes, transfer the appam to a plate. Repeat the procedure with the remaining batter. Duck - one | Turmeric - half teaspoon | garlic- six cloves | Red chilli - three numbers | Salt - to taste | Pepper – eight numbers | Coriander - one tablespoon | Cinnamon- one inch stick | Cloves – three numbers | oil to fry Method Fry the ingredients except salt and duck in one tablespoon oil and grind. Smear this to the duck. Add salt and marinate for two hours. Cook this in enough water. When it dries up and the duck is well cooked, transfer this to the boiling oil and fry till both sides become brown in colour. Chicken Stew Chicken (cut into big pieces) - four cups | Potato (cut into big pieces) - two cups | Onion (cut into big pieces) - two cups | Tomato (cut into big pieces) - half cups | Green slitted chilly- two numbers | Coconut milk (first extract) half cup For the masala Turmeric powder - half teaspoon | Cloves- two | Cinnamon - one small stick | Garlic- four cloves | Coriander- one tablespoon Method Cut the chicken into fairly big pieces. Grind the masalas into fine paste, adding enough water. Squeeze the water from chicken pieces and marinate with the masala. Cook this with vegetables and enough water. When the water dries up, off the gas and pour the coconut milk. December 2008 Egg Aviyal Eggs - four numbers | Salt to taste | Turmeric powder- 1/4 teaspoon | Coconut oil- one teaspoon | Curry leaves- two sprigs To grind Coconut scraped - 1 ½ cups | Coriander seeds- one tablespoon | Green chilli- two numbers | Small onion – two numbers Method Hard boil the eggs and shell. Cut each into four pieces. Grind the ingredients mentioned for grinding, add it to the egg pieces and transfer this to the mud pot. Add turmeric powder and enough water. Also add curry leaves. Boil for three minutes and switch off the burner. Pour coconut oil and cover for two minutes before serving. KERALACALLING 41 N A T U R E T P Radhakrishnan Nair he planet earth, having a fascinating background for life to survive, is equally the home of endless problems, ranging from spread of diseases and global warming to hurricane and volcanic eruptions. In the history of the planet, problems were not new. They existed in the past as well, perhaps worse than those we face today. But there is a marked difference between the problems occurred about half a century ago and those we face now. Most of the problems we face now are human induced, whereas the earlier ones were mostly nature induced. The present environmental hazards arise from a number of issues such as growing population, increasing use of energy, higher pace in urbanisation, and rapid industrialisation. Obviously, today the environmental problems are the most severe threat to the human community and other forms of life in the planet. Environmental protection a global issue Most of the environmental problems we face today are not local in nature. Studies and observation have revealed that a forest fire in Asia could transport the polluting aerosols to United States or Australia. Similarly, deforestation in Australia can ultimately lead to a rise in the sea level in Kochi. Now the fact that the environment is more a global issue has been greatly realised by the scientific society, governments and international agencies. The world over, there is a growing awareness that participation and cooperation of the global community as a whole, is Earth in our Hands 42 KERALACALLING December 2008 important in the success of any programme to address the environmental problems. There are many more problems, which need our immediate attention. It is true that the problems are mostly human induced, but the evaluation of the effect of the human interventions to the environment is a challenge. Any attempt to assess the same, would call for a multidisciplinary approach. Now the human interventions on nature have gone to new levels, threatening earth’s dynamic equilibrium. To face these problems and to initiate effective measures to mitigate them, cooperation and contribution of the global community is essential. To achieve this, it is important that the people are properly educated and motivated to care for the environment. Objectives Major objectives of the programme as announced by the UN are the following: - • Reduce risks for the human community caused by natural and human induced hazards • Reduce environment related health problems • Enhance understanding of the occurrence of natural resource and locate new natural resources • • • • and make them available in a sustainable manner Build safer structures and expand urban areas Help to determine the non- human factors in climate change Locate and evaluate deep and poorly accessible groundwater resources Increase interest in the Earth science in society at large, to care for the environment U N proclamation This realisation that the impact of environmental deterioration would be maximum on the poor section of the population in the developing countries has prompted many international agencies to define the problems in accurate terms, and so far as is humanly possible, to work out effective measures to mitigate the issues with the support of relevant scientific information. International organisations such as International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), International Union of Geology and Geophysics (IUGG), and few other Earth science organisations decided to participate in the efforts making use of the information available with half a million Earth scientists in the world for the purpose. The UNESCO supported the decision and accordingly the United Nations General Assembly proclaimed one or all the three years in the triennium of January 2007 to December 2009 as the International Year of Planet Earth (IYPE). UN is observing 2008 as the International Year of Planet Earth, which was officially launched in Paris on 12, and 13 Feb. 2008. The UN declares that the ultimate goal of the year is to make use of the knowledge we possess about the planet to make the Earth a safer, healthier, and wealthier place for our children and grandchildren. Major activities Each nation taking part in the programme will constitute a national Committee for the purpose, and the said committee is free to select from the triennium the year of their national programme and organize it in the announced line of the UN programme contained in their Science brochure. The activities announced include developing scientific research programmes and outreach activities making use of the widely available wealth of information with the Earth science community of the respective country, so as to generate interest and greater awareness among the general public, decision makers, and politicians about the effective application of these knowledge for the betterment of the human society. The National Committee can select and propose research and outreach projects of supranational level to the International Year of Planet Earth Corporation for sponsoring. A sum of $ 20 million is earmarked for the research and outreach activities, to be shared equally. The thrust area of all the activities is creation of awareness among the human population, on the scope of effective use of earth scientific knowledge to save the environment of the planet and to satisfy in a sustainable manner, the growing needs of the Earth resources. Indian initiatives India is one of the nations, which actively participates in the international programme, giving due importance to its message. The programmes of the IYPE in India were coordinated by the Indian Science Academy, New Delhi, which December 2008 constituted a National Coordination Group, as early as 2006. The programmes for the international year in India, commenced in January, 2007, by adopting Planet Earth as the focal theme for the Indian Science Congress, 2007, held in Annamalai University, during 3 to 7 Jan, 2007. Ensure social benefits As the subtitle of the programmes – Earth Science for Society – suggests, its ultimate objective is the welfare of the human community by providing a safer and healthier environment. This programme consists, essentially, of two components, one, a donor component and the other, a receiver component. The Earth scientist community, all over the world constitute the donor, who has a very important responsibility in this regard; to collect and organise appropriate information and educate the public, decision makers, and politicians about the planet Earth, and it’s environment and how it should be managed to maintain it’s equilibrium. The role of the receiver in the programmes is to extend cooperation and participate actively in it and obtain information on the planet Earth, and its resources, and how to use the Earth resources without causing damages to the environment. Having realised the significance of the programmes and their relevance, it is important that both the donors and receivers participate with dedication in the programmes and make them fruitful. KERALACALLING 43 Mammoth Large DNA mapped waist and premature death The DNA of the extinct woolly mammoth, a relative of the elephant that roamed northern climes thousands of years ago, has been mostly deciphered in a scientific effort that could lead one day to creating a live copy of the beast. This groundbreaking achievement has been contemplating a once unimaginable future when certain prehistoric species might one day be resurrected. The project is led by Stephan Schuster, a professor of microbial ecology at Pennsylvania State University. A full mammoth genome would raise the possibility of resurrecting the species through genetic experimentation, he said. That would involve making about 400,000 changes in 20,000 genes in a modern elephant's DNA and implanting an altered embryo in an elephant to develop, he said. The million-dollar project is a first rough draft, detailing the more than three billion DNA building blocks of the mammoth, according to the study published in the journal Nature. It's about 80 per cent finished. But that's enough to give scientists new clues on the timing of evolution and the deadly intricacies of extinction. Having a large waistline can almost double the risk of dying prematurely even if the body mass index is within the 'normal' range, according to a new study of over 350,000 people across Europe, published in the New England Journal of Medicine. The study provides strong evidence that storing excess fat around the waist poses a significant health risk, even in people not considered to be overweight or obese. It suggests that doctors should measure a patient's waistline and their hips as well as their body mass index as part of standard health checks, according to the researchers, from Imperial College London, the ITCHING Gene discovery may aid treatment It may not be that serious compared to other health problems of man. But Scientists are baffled by the universal misery called itching (the scientific term is pruritus) for which there is, as yet, no adequate explanation or treatment. Wish for an anti-itch remedy may soon be granted now that 44 KERALACALLING German Institute of Human Nutrition, and other research institutions across Europe. The risk of premature death was around double for subjects with a larger waist (more than 120cm or 47.2in for men and more than 100cm or 39.4in for women) compared to subjects with a smaller waist (less than 80cm or 31.5in for men and less than 65cm or 25.6in for women). Body mass index is commonly used to assess if a person is of 'normal' weight. Each 5 cm increase in waist circumference increased the mortality risk by 17 per cent in men and 13 per cent in women. December 2008 scientists at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have identified the first gene for the itch sensation in the central nervous system. The discovery could rapidly lead to new treatments directly targeting itchiness and providing relief for chronic and severe itching. According to these scientists, there are two major types of itch: • A mild form often caused by histamines, itch-inducing chemicals found in poison ivy, mosquito bites, pollens, etc. Antihistamines provide temporary relief from them. • A severe form that may result from kidney, liver or blood disease, HIV, shingles, eczema or many other causes. S. Radhakrishnan Extinct penguin uncovered Why mammoth alone? Let there be something small. Researchers in New Zealand studying a rare and endangered species of penguin have uncovered a previously unknown species that disappeared about 500 years ago. The research suggests that the first humans in New Zealand hunted the newly found Waitaha penguin to extinction by 1500, about 250 years after their arrival on the islands. But the loss of the Waitaha allowed another kind of penguin to thrive -- the yellow-eyed species that now also faces extinction, Philip Seddon of Otago University, a coauthor of the study, said in Wellington. The yellow-eyed penguin is considered one of the world's rarest. An increased risk of mortality may be particularly related to storing fat around the waistline because fatty tissue in this area secretes cytokines, hormones and metabolically active compounds that can contribute to the development of chronic diseases, particularly cardiovascular diseases and cancers, suggest the authors. Moms favour outgoing pups, with consequences Love spark can last forever New brain scans of people who say they are still in love after decades of marriage are similar to scans of those who have just fallen in love, leading researchers to conclude that long-term relationships can be just as passionate and romantic as new love. State University of New York’s psychologist Arthur Aron is confident enough in the pursuit of the love mechanism as he says that in his new book. "That's what the brain scans are telling us. People can't fake that", he adds. The study was presented at a meeting of the Society for Neuroscience in Washington. December 2008 A new study of rats shows that outgoing offspring got more attention from their mothers than did their more shy siblings. Scientists are on the search whether this can be applied to humans also. Brothers and sisters have similar genes and grow up in a similar environment, but have differently personalities. Christina Ragan of Pennsylvania State University and her colleagues wanted to know if parental favouritism could affect personality. Previous research has shown that rat pups whose mothers licked them a lot were less susceptible to stress than pups from mothers that didn’t spend as much time grooming them. Ragan watched mother rats interact with their pups and counted how often each pup in a litter was licked in the first week of life. She found large differences in maternal attention, with the most-groomed pups in a litter getting two to three times more attention from mom than the least licked sibling, Ragan showed in a presentation at the neuroscience meeting. KERALACALLING 45 P H OTO F E AT U R E Surrounded by the misty mountains, wet leaves with oozing dews... Every soul concentrated on one target... chanting Sarana mantras... The 18 holy steps awaiting millions of devotees to bring them to the bliss of Ayyappa. Shots taken during the Mandala Festival Season of Sabarimala. Photos: I&PRD Sparkling Park at Pathiramanal THE 500 BOATS packed with fishermen and shell collectors surrounded the island. Then they planted mangroves around the island. The island glittered amidst, having proud of its uniqueness. All were as part of a welcome procession for the inaugural function of the Pathiramanal Biopark related projects. Without disturbing the delicate ecological balance, Tourism Department is trying to promote the Pathiramanal Island as a tourist destination. Chief Minister, V.S. Achuthananthan, inaugurated the Biopark and also laid the foundation stone of the Natural History Museum. The foundation stone of the Biopark and Kayipuram Jetty was laid by Kodiyeri Balakrishnan and K.P. Rajendran respectively. An apt example for responsible tourism, the Pathiramanal Biopark is situated in Muhamma Village Panchayat. This island is only 4 km away from Kumarakom. The Pathiramanal island which extends to about 24 hectors is rich in biodiversity. New projects have been started realising the importance of conservation of the island which is rich with migratory birds and varied plant lives. There are two stages of 46 KERALACALLING development in the Pathiramanal Biopark. The butterflies, fish and sea plants will be protected in the first stage. It also includes preparing the ponds and lakes for boating and improving basic facilities. The second phase includes construction of Natural Heritage Museum and Aquarium near Kayipuram harbour. The Natural Heritage Museum aims at Environmental Protection studies and related activities. The Central and State Government have give approval for this Rs.550 crore project. Moonrise at Chandragiri Fort HISTORY is that the Vijaya Nagara Empire attacked the northern parts of Neeleswaram while Kolathiri Kingdom had Neeleswaram as their capital. When the Vijayanagara Empire declined in the 14th century, the Ikkery Naikars took over the charge of that region. In 1645, Shivappa Naik undertook the rule and shifted its capital to Badhanur. Since then, they were known as Badhanur Naiks. They founded eight forts in Kasaragod district that include Chandragiri which has witnessed many battles and warfare will have many stories to tell. Now this lofty Fort that stands exalted in Kalanadu Village in Kasaragod district has been opened up for the people by the Education and Culture Minister, M.A. Baby. The State Archaeological Department has restored the Fort with the financial aid of Tourism Department. It was at the brim of deterioration due to land encroachment and earth digging. It was to regain its lost glory that the Archaeological and Tourism Departments started steps to restore the Fort. An information counter has been started for the December 2008 interest of the public. Facilities like cementumbrellas, seating, etc. have been made. Rs.50 lakh has been spent in three phases for the restoration process. Linking the various forts in the district, tourist bus services would be arranged in the city, the Minister said. Many forts which have historical importance are located at Malabar. Out of which eight forts are in Kasaragod. Many do not realise the historical importance of these forts so that a few of them are on the verge of deterioration. These too will be restored into tourist destinations. Hats off to Red Hat Chief Minister, V.S. Achuthanandan, said that a centre of excellence for coordinating activities in the free software sector would be established in the State to resist the capitalist forces trying to monopolise knowledge. An international conference will to take control over traditional values. He said the success of the free software movement was a strong reply to those who voiced support for monopoly of knowledge. Another important suggestion was made by Depesh Das, also be held in connection with the setting up of the centre. He was inaugurating the second national conference on free software at the Cochin University of Science and Technology. The Chief Minister said that capitalist forces are campaigning that development is possible only by establishing monopoly over knowledge. But the markets should not be allowed Minister for Information Technology in West Bengal, about using free software as a platform to develop software products. He also suggested developing of talent pool in the country by free software. By developing this talent pool, more industries could be attracted. Industries Minister Elamaram Karim delivered the keynote address. Waves of development lulls our coast The sea is back into the hands of its own children. The fisheries sector of the LDF Government, headed by Minister S. Sarma, has planned various projects and schemes for the development of the coastal areas and the fisheries sector. The Government has passed new laws to give life to them. Moreover, the Government is planning to spend Rs.3000 crore for the coastal area development. During the past 50 years only Rs.324 crores are spent for this purpose. When we could witness only two laws being passed for the conservation of the coast in the past 50 years, this Government successfully passed three laws within two and a half years. The importance of harbours has been recognised and construction of six harbours have already commenced. The Coastal Development Corporation has been formed for the development of coastal area. Out of the Rs.416 crore proposed for the development of coastal region in Alapuzha, Rs.351 crore has already been used. The Government has introduced special projects like ‘Aarattupuzha Special Package, Andhakaranazhi special package etc. amounting to Rs.327.24 crore for the rehabilitation of Tsunami victims. Apart from these, many other projects like making the Chellanam-Ambalapuzha road into state highway, renovation of the Thottapally fishing harbour, etc. are also in progress. MoU with IOC NATIONALLY, Kerala stands ahead in games. But this is after a long time that Kerala is going to host the mega event namely, the 35th National Games in which Kalaripayattu and snakeboat racing will be held as demonstration sports for the first time. Kerala Government has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Indian Olympic Association for conducting the National Games in the State in 2010. Sports Minister, M. Vijaya Kumar represented Kerala. As per the agreement, Kerala will raise infrastructure by March 2010 at Kochi, Thiruvananthapuram and Kozhikode for conducting the Games later that year. Kerala had last hosted the Games in 1987. The Kerala Government had set aside Rs. 100 crore for the Games project, including that for the development of infrastructure. The December 2008 Government will soon be submitting a detailed proposal seeking financial assistance from the Union Government to the tune of Rs. 1,000 crore. It is expected that hosting of the 35th National Games will materialise huge investment in developing the sports infrastructure of Kerala. KERALACALLING 47 Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, Minister for Home, views the monitors connected to the surveillance cameras installed in Thiruvananthapuram city Rendering High Quality Service WHILE some North Indian counterparts have often been alleged as organised criminals, the State Police has always been compared with that of Scotland Police in efficiency. Now, it has once again proved its stature by having command-cum-operation centre equipped with modern communication devices and an automated control room system for Thiruvananthapuram city. The Command Centre is the facility only the world’s topmost police forces have. In India, very few forces like CBI Directorate, have such facility. This facility enables the force to watch important events in live and the DGP can give necessary instructions immediately F O C U S P K Sreemathi Teacher, Minister for Health, decking R S Gavai, Governor of Kerala with Aids Red Ribbon at Raj Bhavan 48 KERALACALLING December 2008 to the concerned police station or force from the Command Centre. Facilities such as wireless, telephone, high speed e-mail system, Web based services of police, video conferencing, warning set ups etc. are arranged here. The control room system which comprises of global positioning system enabled vehicles, tetrabased messaging service and surveillance cameras at important points in Thiruvananthapuram city, would be introduced in Kochi and Kozhikode cities soon. DNA finger printing facility has also set up on the premises of the Police Headquarters for examination of various biological trace evidences. So far the State police was depending on labs outside the state for DNA examination. Similarly, a Cyber Forensic Division, fully equipped with all types of software and other tools to gather digital evidence on crimes involving electronic gadgets like computers, e-mails and mobile phones has also set up here. Beware offenders, no more hide and seek play! Hari Kodiyeri Balakrishnan, Minister for Home, views the monitors connected to the surveillance cameras installed in Thiruvananthapuram city Rendering High Quality Service WHILE some North Indian counterparts have often been alleged as organised criminals, the State Police has always been compared with that of Scotland Police in efficiency. Now, it has once again proved its stature by having command-cum-operation centre equipped with modern communication devices and an automated control room system for Thiruvananthapuram city. The Command Centre is the facility only the world’s topmost police forces have. In India, very few forces like CBI Directorate, have such facility. This facility enables the force to watch important events in live and the DGP can give necessary instructions immediately F O C U S P K Sreemathi Teacher, Minister for Health, decking R S Gavai, Governor of Kerala with Aids Red Ribbon at Raj Bhavan 48 KERALACALLING December 2008 to the concerned police station or force from the Command Centre. Facilities such as wireless, telephone, high speed e-mail system, Web based services of police, video conferencing, warning set ups etc. are arranged here. The control room system which comprises of global positioning system enabled vehicles, tetrabased messaging service and surveillance cameras at important points in Thiruvananthapuram city, would be introduced in Kochi and Kozhikode cities soon. DNA finger printing facility has also set up on the premises of the Police Headquarters for examination of various biological trace evidences. So far the State police was depending on labs outside the state for DNA examination. Similarly, a Cyber Forensic Division, fully equipped with all types of software and other tools to gather digital evidence on crimes involving electronic gadgets like computers, e-mails and mobile phones has also set up here. Beware offenders, no more hide and seek play! Hari