2015 Election: Paving the Way to a 6th Crisis?

London School of Economics London / March 10-­‐12, 2015 2015 Election: Paving
th
the Way to a 6 Crisis?
Miguel E. Basáñez
[email protected]
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Warning before starting
All of us here today belong to the top
1% of the Mexican social pyramid,
with access to or influence on
political, social or economic
decisions that affect the 99%
Hence, our opinions and
ideas carry a heavy weight
Content
1 – Why a 6th crisis?
2 – Eisenhower’s warning
3 – Why the election?
4 – Neo-Maximato?
5 – Scenarios
Why a 6th Crisis?/1
There is currently a risky
coincidence of internal and
external causes to trigger one
Externally, the Eisenhower
warning; internally, a sort of
Neo-Maximato
Why a 6th Crisis?/2
I did my Ph.D. thesis here at LSE
on the first four recent crisis of
Mexico: 1968-1976-1982-1987
GDO Tiananmen Sq / LEA devaluation
/ JLP banks’ nationalization /
MMH stock market crash*
* They all were triggered around the presidential succession period
Why a 6th Crisis?/3
What Mexico lived over 5
decades, the US and Europe
packed since the 2008 crisis
My LSE research helped me to
anticipate the 5th Mexican
Tequila Crisis of 1994
Mayo 1992
Why a 6th Crisis?/4
Mexican media kept asking
me around presidential
successions since 2000
to write about a 6th crisis.
My answer had been:
“I don’t see it.” But now, I do
Content
1 – Why a 6th crisis?
2 – Eisenhower’s warning
3 – Why the election?
4 – Neo-Maximato?
5 – Scenarios
Eisenhower warning/1
Eisenhower’s warned on his
farewell speech* about the
growing power of the
Military-industrial complex:
We recognize the imperative need for this
development. Yet we must not fail to
comprehend its grave implications
* Eisenhower’s Farewell Speech, Jan 17, 1961
Eisenhower warning/2
The US presidents and the top
300 richest families of the US
cannot find strong enough
checks and balances to keep
the Complex under control
Much less a G-12 country &
that’s where Mexico currently is
Eisenhower warning/3
The Complex was quite
comfortable with the last
Mexican presidents. As the
US had not entered into a fullfledged new war, at least a
drug war helped pay the bills.
Eisenhower warning/4
That situation changed with
the arrival of the new federal
government in 2012 and a
covert struggle began.
Eisenhower warning /5
The first sign, two weeks
before inauguration, was
stopping the nomination of
the Defense Secretary.
(Ginger Thompson report,
NYT, Feb 4, 2013)
Eisenhower warning /6
The second sign, one week
after inauguration, was a
summon to SG, SD, SM, PGR,
Cisen by the US Ambassador
(Dana Priest report,
Washington Post, Apr 27, 2013)
Eisenhower warning/7
Imagine the German
Ambassador here summoning
the Foreign Secretary,
the Secretary of Defense,
and the MI5 director up
to his office*
* That’s what Ambassador Wayne did in Mexico in December 2012
Eisenhower warning / 8
The Complex pressed really
hard before the May 2013
Obama visit to Mexico to set
the agenda around 3 items:
security, security & security
Eisenhower warning /9
As Obama and Peña Nieto
have developed a good
communication and rapport,
they decided to talk of
everything, except security.
How come may have said TC?
Eisenhower warning/10
The Complex had to try
something more effective:
Why not pressing Mexico
in the international media?
Causes would pop up
The Economist Intelligence Unit
Rodrigo Aguilera,
“What If Peña Nieto Resigns?
Scenarios for Government
Change in Mexico”
12/01/2014
Bello
The Mexican morass
A president who doesn’t get that he doesn’t get it
Jan 24th 2015 | From the print edition
IN A new year message Mexico’s president,
Enrique Peña Nieto, promised to work to
“liberate” his country from crime, corruption and
impunity. His cabinet has duly set these as its
priorities. The message is the right one. But
unfortunately for Mr Peña, Mexicans are
increasingly cynical about the messenger.
Eisenhower warning /11
Let me be clear. I am not
defending Ayotzinapa,
the White House or the
Queretaro train cases.
That’s not the point.
Eisenhower warning /12
Similar if not worse cases
have happened in the past
two administrations without
triggering such a reaction.
What is different now?
Content
1 – Why a 6th crisis?
2 – Eisenhower’s warning
3 – Why the election?
4 – Neo-Maximato?
5 – Scenarios
Why the election? /1
1  An election shows and
exacerbates corruption…
as always
But the problem is that
Ayotzinapa, the White House
and the Queretaro train issue
created a perfect storm
Why the election? /2
2  Mexico is replicating the
broken American political
system: discredited parties &
politicians
Trust and confidence sank in
the second half of 2014
Why the election? /3
Trust in institutions*
Army: 48% - 30%
Church: 37% - 34%
Schools: 37% - 31%
Government: 16% - 13%
Political parties: 16% - 7%
* Change from June to November, 2014, GEA – ISA, Jan 2015.
Why the election? /4
3  Mexico is also following the
wealth concentration path of the
US, except that in the US while it
may be unethical, it is at least
legal
Let me share a 4 minute clip on
the growing inequality in the US
http://mashable.com/2013/03/02/wealth-inequality/
Why the election? /5
4  It is not a problem of outcomes
for the administration: PRI will
get the largest share of votes*
The problem is about who the
new PRI congress members
respond to: the president or
someone else?
* PRI 31%, PAN 26%, PRD 16%, Morena 9%, Green 8%, other 5 parties 18%,
Consulta Mitofsky, March 2015
Why the election? /6
5  The election shakes the Executive
power with multiple changes in
the Cabinet.
Again, that’s not the problem:
rather, who do the new Cabinet
members respond to: the
president or someone else?
Content
1 – Why a 6th crisis?
2 – Eisenhower’s warning
3 – Why the election?
4 – Neo-Maximato?
5 – Scenarios
Neo-Maximato? /1
The absence of a PRI president
for 12 years leaked the central
leadership to the governors
and the Congress’ leaders
The governors are powerful for
six years, but the Congress leaders
have held power since 2000
Neo-Maximato? /2
Out of the 19 PRI governors*
just a handful are members of
the president’s circle
The two strongest states are
outstanding examples: Mexico
and Nuevo Leon
* PRI 19, PAN 6, PRD 4, PMC 1, PVE 1, Independent 1
Neo-Maximato? /3
Out of the 264 PRI members of
Congress*, a majority got their
positions with no link to the
president’s circle
The garbage collectors union’s
harem and his mother as
candidate are examples
*Senate: PAN 38, PRI 52, PRD 22, PT 5, PVEM 9, MC 1, PNA 1, Total 122
Chamber: PAN 114, PRI 212, PRD 104, PT 15, PVEM 29, MC 16, PNA 10, Total 500
Neo-Maximato? /4
Will the 2015 election
reinforce or change the trend?
Will the Neo-Maximato
die or live?
Are the current scandals
linked to it?
Content
1 – Why a 6th crisis?
2 – Eisenhower’s warning
3 – Why the election?
4 – Neo-Maximato?
5 – Scenarios: optimistic,
pessimistic, intermediate
Scenarios: Optimist
-  Oil price bounces back
-  Mexico’s economy recovers
-  Structural reforms succeed
-  Election strengthens EPN
-  US politics settle down
-  Probability: 30%
Scenarios: Pessimist
-  Scenario 1 does not happen
-  Protests increase*
-  EPN is forced to resign
-  Organized crime prevails
-  A 6th crisis happens
-  Probability: 10%
* Fueled by anti-corruption and Ayotzinapa movements
Scenarios: intermediate
-  A combination of
both scenarios 1 and 2
-  Probability: 60%
Scenarios: most probable
It is highly dependent on the
outcome of both the US internal
political conflicts and the
2015 election shaking
Sadly, the political systems of
both countries are broken.
It’s like the sinking Titanic.
Conclusion 1
By removing the Mexican
president from office, a 6th
crisis is possible, but it
could create consequences
even worse than the ones
that occurred after the
2008 world crisis.
Conclusion 2
Friends help friends,
but more to the point,
it’s in the best interest
of the US and the
international community to
help Mexico succeeding
Conclusion 3
Within Mexico, a strongly organized
civil society is badly needed to
prevail over corruption and impunity.
A soft social tsunami’ with an
epicenter in 1968 seems to be
already running its course. It is
important to make good use of it
Could Mexicans in the US help?
London School of Economics London / March 10-­‐12, 2015 2015 Election: Paving
th
the Way to a 6 Crisis?
Miguel E. Basáñez
[email protected]
The Fletcher School, Tufts University