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Megapolitan America
Megapolitan America Luck Stone Corporation Historical World Population Growth World population continually increases. With current world population over 6 billion (6,590,514,881 and counting) people, there is significant pressure for excess population to migrate from more densely populated countries to those less populated. Source: US Census Bureau, & Population Reference Bureau Today’s Population in US 305,865,177* and counting… 400 Million 300 Million Immigration & their USUS-born descendants Stock 1970 Americans & descendants 200 Million 100 Million 0 Actual • • • • Projected 1 birth every 8 seconds 1 death every 12 seconds 1 international migrant every 26 seconds 1 person gained every 11 seconds *This number is constantly changing. Please visit http://www.census.gov/ for current count. The chart is the projected US population growth if immigration and fertility do not change. Sources: US Census Bureau, USAToday, & Numbers USA Population Milestones 2040 400 Population in Millions 2006 300 1967 200 1915 100 Cost of New Home: $3,200 Gallon of Gas: $0.25 Gallon of Milk: $0.36 Life Expentancy: 54.5 yrs Homeownership: 46% 0 Cost of New Home: $24,600 Gallon of Gas: $0.33 Gallon of Milk: $1.03 Life Expentancy: 70.5 yrs Homeownership: 64% Cost of New Home: $290,600 Gallon of Gas: $3.04 Gallon of Milk: $3.00 Life Expentancy: 77.8 yrs Homeownership: 69% ? Where We Live Each dot represents 5,000 people. The USA’s population is expected to increase 100 million by 2040 … add another 20,000 dots! Graphic: USAToday Megapolitans in the News Graphic: Business 2.0 Why Megapolitans? • Megas define the new geography of the first half of this century • Megas give focus to the US population and density projections to 2040 and help us identify potential housing and construction demand • Megas provide framework for local / regional / national governments • Megas profile the nation’s biggest market opportunities 2006 Megapolitan America Greater Metroplex September 2006 Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech Characteristics of a 2006 Mega • Minimum 5 million people by 2040 • Has 2 or more metropolitan areas with anchor principal cities between 50 and 200 miles apart • Are never more than a day’s drive end-to-end • Are large-scale, but not enormous • 2 distinct qualities – concentrated populations and ‘corridor’ form Megapolitan Interstates Megapolitan Geography Map showing major travel routes Denver Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech 2006 Megapolitan America 30% 70% Geographic Center of US Population Center of US Mississippi River 42.4% live east of this line in mega areas Megapolitan America The population boom to 300 million has spurred sprawling ‘super cities’ (‘megapolitans’) 2.6% of US Population Total Land: 46,532 sq mi States: OR, WA Seattle is Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 32 Aerospace is Signature Industry Political Sway: Democrat 4.1% of US Population Total Land: 34,066 sq mi States: CA, NV San Francisco is Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 23 High Tech is Signature Industry Political Sway: Democrat 7.6% of US Population Total Land: 51,722 sq mi States: CA, NV Los Angeles is Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 8 Entertainment is Signature Industry Political Sway: Democrat 1.5% of US Population Total Land: 23,787 sq mi States: AZ Phoenix is Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 3 Home Building is Signature Industry Political Sway: Republican 3.7% of US Population Total Land: 68,540 sq mi States: AL, FL, LA, MS, TX Houston is Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 73 Energy is Signature Industry Political Sway: Republican 5.3% of US Population Total Land: 75,126 sq mi States: KS, MO, OK, TX Dallas is the Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 97 High Tech is Signature Industry Political Sway: Republican 13.8% of US Population Total Land: 119,822 sq mi States: IL, IN, KY, MI, OH, PA, WI, WV Chicago is the Biggest Metro Area Total No. of Counties: 218 Manufacturing is Signature Industry Political Sway: Democrat 17.3% of US Population Total Land: 70,062 sq mi States: CT, DE, MA, MD, ME, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VA, WV New York Is Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 145 Finance is Signature Industry Political Sway: Democrat 6.6% of US Population Total Land: 91,093 sq mi States: AL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA Atlanta is Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 198 Banking is Signature Industry Political Sway: Republican 4.7% of US Population Total Land: 37,644 sq mi States: FL Miami is Biggest Metro Total No. of Counties: 32 Tourism is Signature Industry Political Sway: Republican Percentage of Growth to 2030 Cascadia: 46% Front Range: 59% Lake Front: 24% Steel Corridor: 4% Michigan Corridor: 15% New England: 20% Northern California: 43% Core Megapolitan: 20% Chesapeake: 40% Ohio Valley: 24% Southern California: 37% Carolina Piedmont: 45% Sun Corridor: 81% Greater Metroplex: 62% Texas Corridor: 66% Source: Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech Georgia Piedmont: 55% Florida: Texas 59% Gulf: 51% Treasure Coast: 58% Chesapeake Megapolitan and Virginia 85 85 miles miles Morgantown Baltimore Winchester Charlottesville Richmond Norfolk Winston-Salem Charlotte 50 50 miles miles Raleigh NE Megapolitans Megapolitan Virginia Population 2000 6.7 Million 2040 10.5 Million Housing Units 2.1 Million 3.4 Million Jobs 4.5 Million 7.3 Million Richmond Metro’s population is projected to be as high as 3 million people by the year 2040 (150% increase). VA Top Counties 2030 Loudoun 82% Fairfax 31% Prince William 49% Stafford 64% Spotsylvania 60% York County 29% James City County 36% Chesterfield 43% CA Sites Charles Luck Sites Henrico 30% Isle of Wight 31% Megapolitan Virginia New Construction Demand: – Residential 2000 to 2040 1.3 Million Units 62% increase from 2000 – Non-Residential 3.3 Billion Sq Ft 140% increase from 2000 Megapolitan Virginia New Construction $$’s: 2000 to 2040 – Residential $600 Billion – Non-Residential $500 Billion – Infrastructure $100 Billion Total $1.2 Trillion For more information… • Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech: www.mi.vt.edu • Weldon Cooper Center at UVA: www.coopercenter.org • US Census Bureau: www.census.gov • Population Reference Bureau: www.prb.org • Brookings Institution: www.brookings.edu • Urban Land Institute: www.uli.org • Lincoln Land Institute of Land Policy: www.lincolninst.edu
