Newspaper extinction timeline

Newspaper extinction timeline
USA 2017
When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant*
UK, Iceland 2019
Canada, Norway 2020
Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021
Australia, Hong Kong 2022
Denmark 2023
New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024
Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025
South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026
Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027
Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028
France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029
Germany, Estonia 2030
Japan, Metro China 2031
Hungary, Lithuania 2032
Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033
Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034
Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035
Russia, Turkey 2036
Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037
Mongolia 2038
Argentina 2039
— stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas
Rest of the world 2040+
Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence
• Visionary media strategy
• Scenario planning
• Future of media workshops
• Thought leadership content
futureexploration.net
• Futurist
• Keynote speaker
• Strategy advisor
• Author
rossdawson.com
Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors
Increased cost
performance
of tablets/
e-readers
Increased cost
performance
of mobile
phones
Changes in
newsprint
and print
production
costs
Technology uptake
Fixed bandwidth availability
and costs
Development
of high
performance
digital paper
GLOBAL
Trends in
advertising
spend and
allocation
Mobile bandwidth
availability and costs
Smartphone and e-reader
penetration
Economic
development
Economic growth rate
Wealth inequality
Urban/ regional wealth
disparity
Newspapers in their
current form becoming
insignificant is not the
same as the death of
news-on-paper, which
will continue in a variety
of forms.
Ways that newspaper publishers of
today will succeed in the transition
beyond “newspapers in their
current form” include transitioning
to other channels, providing
personalized news-on-paper, and
tapping niche markets.
Balance of advertising and
print sales revenue
Newspaper distribution
structures
Demographics
Government
Consumer behaviors
Age structure, birth rates,
and immigration
Degree of regulation
Media channel preferences
Government financial
support for media
Willingness to pay for news
Degree of urbanization
Increase in literacy
Censorship and obstruction
* Notes to the timeline
This schedule for newspaper
extinction shows best
estimates given current trends.
The timeline is intended to
highlight the diversity of global
media markets and stimulate
useful strategic conversations.
Financial position of leading
newspapers
NATIONAL
Uptake of
digital news
monetization
mechanisms
Development
of open
platforms
Industry structure
Services include:
[email protected]
• Media Strategy
USA: (415) 315 9566
• Scenario Planning
Future Exploration Network helps media
organizations to engage with the future,
build effective strategies, innovate, and
achieve results.
Relative interest in local and
global news
• Future of Media Workshops
• Thought Leadership Content
• Executive Briefings and
Keynotes
Australia: +61-2 9994 8011