L`Industrie Chimique Européenne Perspectives et

L’Industrie Chimique Européenne
Perspectives et Challenges
Société d’Economie Politique
Lyon - 21 Octobre 2008
Alain PERROY
Directeur Général
AGENDA
Le Cefic
La Chimie européenne dans le
monde aujourd’hui
Enjeux et perspectives pour
l’avenir
Facteurs clefs de compétitivité
2
About Cefic
Welcome to Cefic
European Chemical Industry Council
We are the forum and the voice of the
chemical industry in Europe
Brussels based office of 160 people working
with over 4,000 people across the industry
Annual budget 40 million €
Cefic was founded in 1972
4
The Cefic Network
Cefic EU Policy Centre
Manages EU issues
Orchestrates EU level advocacy
Manages voluntary industry programmes & research
28 National Associations
Contribute to EU issues management
Organise advocacy at country level
Industry Sectors including > 100 business groups
Manage sector specific issues
5
Cefic Membership
There are three distinct Groups of Cefic members:
1. National Federations from across Europe
2. Major international companies
3. Business members
6
Cefic Membership
1. AFEM - national federations from 22 countries
across Europe and 6 associate federations (Bulgaria,
Estonia, Lithuania, Croatia, Romania, Latvia)
2. ACOM - major international chemical companies
with operations in Europe (50)
3. ABM - business members having activity in Cefic
programmes and business groups. They are:
• 600 companies operating in Europe
• business entities of the 50 major companies
7
Annual Budget 2007: 39,8 M€
Companies: 10,60 M€
Fed. & Aff.: 2,83 M€
Others:
2,15 M€
Service Unit
1,34 M€
1,78 M€
Industry Sectors
EU Policy Centre
3,12 M€
15,31 M€
10,52 M€
8,24 M€
5,73 M€
Reserves
Industry Sectors Research
Common Research
Companies: 18,76 M€
8
La Chimie Européenne dans le Monde
GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF
WORLD CHEMICAL SALES
563 M€
34,3 %
EU CHEMICAL INDUSTRY:
SECTORAL BREAKDOWN OF SALES
11
EU CHEMICAL INDUSTRY SALES
BY DESTINATION (%)
12
EXTRA-EU* CHEMICALS TRADE BALANCE
13
EU CHEMICAL INDUSTRY TRADE FLOWS
WITH MAJOR GEOGRAPHIC BLOCS: 2006
in € billion
22.3
31.2
NAFTA
22.9
36.5
21.1
24.4
LAC**
Asia*
3.0
6.0
5.9
6.2
Africa
Rest of
Europe
2.4
7.1
0.4
1.9
Japan
Oceania
Source: Cefic and Eurostat
* excl. Japan; **Latin America and the Caribbean
14
CHEMICALS* TRADE BALANCE COMPARISON:
EU VERSUS USA AND ASIA
15
EU TRADE BALANCE EVOLUTION 1996-2006
Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, other industries
160
Other Industries
Chemicals
140
% of trade surplus
120
20/25%
Pharmaceuticals
50/60%
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
16
THE EU MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY:
Breakdown of labour cost per employee
17
La Chimie Européenne dans le
Monde : Conclusions
La première chimie du monde avec plus du 1/3 de
la production mondiale (en valeur)
Une croissance forte, supérieure à celle du PIB
jusqu’à récemment
Une balance commerciale excédentaire:
Cruciale pour maintenir un surplus commercial pour
l’industrie européenne
Positive vis à vis toutes les régions
Près de 30 000 entreprises
Des emplois qualifiés bien payés
Une chimie intégrée, servant tous les secteurs de
l’économie
UN PILIER DE L’ÉCONOMIE EUROPÉENNE
18
CHALLENGES
Analysis by the High Level Group
Chemicals
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
20
CHEMICALS SALES GROWTH RATES
OF SELECTED COUNTRIES AND REGIONS
21
WORLD CHEMICALS SALES
+ 10 pts
22
GROWTH TRENDS CHEMICALS VS. GDP
Growth Trends Chemicals vs. GDP 2006-2020
10.0
9.0
bubbles denote
Production values in 2006
Saudi Arabia
Chemicals production % p.a.
8.0
China
India(behind)
Iran
7.0
6.0
all BRIC countries
5.0
Russia
Korea
4.0
3.0
Chemistry- Global Trend 3.3 % p.a.
Brazil
2.0
EU27
USA
Japan
1.0
GDP- Global Trend 3.1 % p.a.
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
GDP % p.a.
23
DECLINING TRADE COMPETITIVENESS:
Eroding international position of the EU chemical industry
The trade analysis shows that EU trade competitiveness declined by
almost 30% over the last five years
Imports into the EU are growing much faster than exports
24
LABOUR COSTS: high but competitive
140
•Labour costs in the EU chemical
industry are high.
•Adjusted by productivity, ULC levels
in the EU are competitive with most
countries.
Index USA =100
•There are large differences within
Europe.
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
•Asian countries have lower ULC. This
is a comparative advantage.
•A strong Euro harms labour cost
competitiveness of the EU chemical
industry.
Source: “Unit Labor Costs, Productivity and International Competitiveness”, RuG 2005
ULC Levels (manufacturing, 2003)
Japan
EU 27
Eastern Europe
China
USA
Brazil
Korea
Exchange Rate
2003: 1.13 US$/Euro
2007: 1.37 US$/Euro (+20%)
25
GAS PRICES:
Clear advantage to Russia & Middle East
• Expensive and scarce goods in
Europe, as Europe is neither a
strong gas nor oil producer country
and has to import its raw materials.
• Europe has a good infrastructure,
but inputs have to be sourced from
other countries.
• Security of supply is crucial for a
competitive European chemical
industry.
• Other countries have preferential
access to these energy sources.
Prices are lower than in Europe
and additionally unfair commercial
practices take place (e.g. double
pricing).
26
STRENGTHS AND OPPORTUNITIES:
Regulatory and Business environment should support
☺ Large integrated domestic market with strong customer industry
cluster and reasonable demand growth from industry 2.0 % p.a.
☺ Continued strategic restructuring efforts to adapt flexibly to
globalised markets
☺ High international orientation and global network to external
customer industries
☺ Until now availability of skilled and motivated workers and
scientists
☺ Still reasonable competitiveness but price-cost competitiveness
challenged by overvalued € and undervalued Asian exchange
rates
☺ Strong innovation efforts will generate new growth clusters:
Biotechnology, Energy management, Nanotechnology, new
materials and new raw material base which have the capability to
solve upcoming global mega problems
27
WEAKNESSES AND THREATS:
Regulatory and Business environment should help to counteract
Diminishing growth stimulus from external demand due to weaker
growth prospects for exports to overseas and much stronger import
penetration from polymers and specialities.
EU has a comparative price and feedstock disadvantage in Olefins
and its derivatives and is facing an upcoming wave of petrochemical
capacity additions, especially in ME.
Subdued potential macro growth prospects due to elderly population,
shrinking working age classes, high saturation levels and limited
technological progress.
Excessive bureaucracy and regulatory framework and insufficient
harmonised tax and labour market systems within EU, huge North –
South gap in efficiency
Energy markets have a “quasi” oligopolistic organisation with much
too high energy cost for consumers and industry
28
An analysis of different factors shows that the
European chemical industry can remain competitive
General framework
Cost aspects
Labour costs
Feedstock / Energy
Innovation environment
Education
Innovation
Market conditions
Industry Clusters
Infrastructure
Europe is a high cost
region, but can compensate
this by being innovative and
having favorable market
conditions.
Industrial policy framework
EU regulatory framework
Industrial policies abroad
Trade policies
Europe must ensure a level
playing field for global
competition.
29
LES CONDITIONS DU SUCCES
Pour une Chimie Européenne forte
au XXIéme siècle
PRENDRE EN CONSIDÉRATION LE « GREENING
OF EUROPE »:
Initiatives réglementaires unilatérales de l’Europe face à
un marché global = risque de perte de compétitivité
Demande « verte », market bans, black lists
Aversion au risque
Méfiance vis-à-vis des nouvelles technologies (OGM,
nanotechnologies)
Complexité des nouvelles questions de santé:
Biomonitoring
Low dose effects
Mixtures
Multi-génération effects
TRANSPARENCE, RESPONSIBLE CARE,
PRODUCT STEWARDSHIP
31
Pour une Chimie Européenne forte
au XXIéme siècle
ETRE EXEMPLAIRE POUR RETABLIR LA
CONFIANCE
Appliquer REACH sans retard et en démontrant notre
maîtrise des risques (qualité des dossiers)
Communiquer sur les risk assessments
S’engager dans les recherches « santé & environnement »
COMMUNIQUER SUR LES BENEFICES PRODUITS
S’ENGAGER DANS LE PROGRAMME MONDIAL
(ICCA): GLOBAL PRODUCT STRATEGY
32
Pour une Chimie Européenne forte
au XXIéme siècle
INTEGRER LA DIMENSION « CLIMATE CHANGE »
La chimie européenne a contribué à l’objectif de Kyoto
30% de réduction des émissions / 40% de croissance de la
production depuis 1990
Analyse cycle de vie : 3t économisées / 1t émise
Obtenir une directive ETS fondée sur la performance
Référence aux « benchmarks »
Allocation gratuite des quotas CO2 jusqu’au benchmark
Investir pour améliorer la performance « carbone »
Parvenir à l’objectif -20%
COMMUNIQUER SUR LA CONTRIBUTION DES
PRODUITS CHIMIQUES A LA DIMINUTION DES
EMISSIONS DANS TOUS LES SECTEURS AVAL
33
Pour une Chimie Européenne forte
au XXIéme siècle
DEFENDRE UN COMMERCE INTERNATIONAL
« FAIR & FREE »: CHEMICAL « TARIFFS »
Accord multilatéral OMC ????
Accords sectoriel chimie ?
Accords bilatéraux
Vigilance / deals « politiques » (pratiques dual pricing)
MAINTIEN DES OUTILS DE DEFENSE CONTRE LES
PRATIQUES DE DUMPING (opposition à la réforme
Mandelson)
DEFENDRE LES DROITS DE PROPRIETE
INTELLECTUELLE
VIGILANCE SUR LES PRATIQUES DE
« DISCLOSURE »
34
Pour une Chimie Européenne forte
au XXIéme siècle
INVESTIR DANS L’INNOVATION !
La CHIMIE est rétablie dans les thémes de
« l’agenda stratégique de recherche » européen
Plate-forme technologique « Sustainable
Chemistry »
SE MOBILISER ET PROPOSER DES
PROJETS
Financements européens
35
THANK YOU !
QUESTIONS ?
Chemistry making a world of difference