retail market analysis

Transcription

Fenton, Michigan
RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS
Prepared for:
FENTON DOWNTOWN DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY
301 S. Leroy Street
Fenton, Michigan 48430
Prepared by:
GIBBS PLANNING GROUP, INC.
330 E. Maple Street #310
Birmingham, Michigan 48009
October 1, 2003
FINAL REPORT
Fenton’s remaining historic downtown remains at the community’s crossroads.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Like many American towns, Fenton’s primary shopping has shifted from the historic
downtown to strip shopping centers located along its edge. Downtown Fenton suffered
further loss of commerce from a unique 1970’s urban renewal experiment that closed its
main street and replaced many of its historic commercial buildings with a “modern” onelevel shopping center surrounded by surface parking lots. Presently, Fenton benefits by
being located in the path of the wealthy and rapidly expanding Oakland and Genesee
Counties. Both counties have experienced population growth rates of over 20% during
the past decade. In addition, commercial growth has also been very strong along the U.S.
23 corridor, as is evident in the development around Silver Lake Village (which is part of
the Fenton DDA). In fact, Fenton’s current market demand far exceeds the supply of
goods and services. Despite these high levels of growth, downtown Fenton has
©Gibbs Planning Group, Inc. 2003
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maintained a small town charm and still has many of its traditional anchors including the
Post Office, City Hall, Churches, Park, Community Center and even a historical museum.
Downtown Fenton has many civic anchors including the unique historical museum and
U.S. Post Office.
This study finds that Fenton’s Total Trade Area contains over 400,000 residents with a
favorable median household income of $53,400. More notable, there are an estimated
17,100 people within 3 miles of downtown Fenton, and median household income is
$59,400. Focus group studies indicated that most residents are pleased with the variety
and quality of goods and services offered in the greater region. Most respondents would
like to see additional restaurants, grocery and specialty stores located in the downtown
area. Most Fenton residents report that they shop only in Genesee County.
This study further estimates that residents living in the total Fenton trade area will spend
over 7.4 billion dollars in 2003 on goods and services including: department stores,
apparel, restaurants, groceries, appliances, home furnishings and general retail. However,
most of these purchases are made outside of the Fenton DDA area. Of the 7.4 billion
retail dollars spent in 2003, GPG projects that existing and new Fenton businesses can
capture over 91 million dollars. By 2008, the total trade area’s retail spending will
exceed 10.2 billion dollars, of which 71 million additional dollars can be potentially
retained by Fenton DDA businesses (see Exhibit A for a detail of spending).
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The historic downtown and Dibbleville are disjointed because of the lack of street-front retail.
Conversion of the old fire station into a restaurant and other infill mixed use development will
help to link the downtown.
GPG concludes that during the next five years, the greater Fenton area can support up to
755,000 square feet of new retail development both within the downtown area and within
Silver Lake Village. This study recommends that the new retail be channeled to establish
two specific shopping districts. The downtown is ideally located to become the region’s
primary neighborhood shopping district including grocery stores, cafes, restaurants,
hardware and specialty retailers. The Silver Lake Village area should remain a regional
destination with leading large format retailers and new lifestyle type tenants. Dibbleville
and the traditional downtown should be linked with new in-fill commercial and
residential development.
This new potential development includes over half a million sf of general merchandise
stores (such as department stores, junior department stores, discount department stores
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Fenton’s future retail growth should be grouped to create the downtown as the region’s leading
collection of neighborhood goods and services, while the Silver Lake Village-U.S. 23 area should
continue to attract major retailers. Both commercial areas should be planned to include mediumdensity residential and pedestrian orientated environments.
and warehouse clubs), 48,000 sf of apparel related categories, 58,000 sf of food related
stores, including a 20,000 sf green grocer (such as Trader Joe’s or Wild Oats), 12,500 sf
of drug stores, 14,000 sf of dollar/variety stores, and 4,500 sf of home furnishings. A
more detailed depiction of the supportable retail is displayed on the following page and
Exhibit A in the Appendix.
BACKROUND AND METHODOLOGY
Background
Gibbs Planning Group (GPG) was commissioned by the City of Fenton Downtown
Development Authority (DDA) to estimate the amount of additional retail development
that Fenton could potentially support through 2008. For the purposes of this study,
supportable retail is defined at new retail that could be deployed, developed and could
offer a reasonable rate of return on an investment, given proper management and
planning methods.
The Fenton DDA includes downtown Fenton (which incorporates Dibbleville and the
portion of Fenton north of the Shiawassee River), as well as the area along U.S. Highway
23 that houses Silver Lake Village.
The results of this analysis are based upon the following assumptions:
• Housing and population growth will occur as projected herein
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•
•
•
No new retail/commercial development will occur unless mentioned in this report
(any new significant retail development should be deducted from the supportable
square footage outlined by this study).
The necessary infrastructure changes will be made to the relevant access routes to
ensure ease of access and improved mobility throughout the study area
The retail establishments in Fenton will operate in a manner consistent with
successful retailing, including remaining open during hours that are convenient to
potential customers, maintaining clean facilities and streetscaping, and applying
appropriate visual merchandising.
The following issues were addressed as part of this study:
• Is retail development viable at the proposed mixed-use development?
• To whom would this retail appeal? That is, what are the population and
demographic characteristics of trade area residents? What are the projected
trade area population and demographic characteristics?
• What type of retail should be attracted? In particular, should the proposed retail
component have a neighborhood, specialty or regional appeal?
• What types of retail are supportable at this development? What are the projected
sales volumes?
Purpose & Limits of Study
This study is intended to provide the Fenton DDA with a general forecast of the amount
and types of retail development that are likely to be supportable through 2008. These
forecast figures are intended to assist the DDA in making general policy decisions
regarding growth and the character of its downtown. The findings of this of this study are
also based upon the economy remaining relatively healthy and that there is no new major
retail expansion in the study area. Should major new retail development occur in the
primary trade area, than that amount of new retail should be deducted from the findings
of this report.
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This report’s study area is made up of the Silver Lake Village Shopping area and the general
Fenton Downtown Area.
GPG does not necessary recommend that any or all of the potential retail be
accommodated in the study area. In addition, this study does not claim that Fenton DDA
area has adequate space or appropriate locations for the supportable new retail
development. This study is not intended and should not be the sole basis for
infrastructure policy decisions or private sector investment.
Methodology
To address the above issues, a detailed field evaluation of retail around the site, as well as
major existing and planned shopping centers in and surrounding the defined trade area,
was conducted in early May and June 2003. During this evaluation, GPG thoroughly
drove the market, visited and evaluated the major existing and planned retail
concentrations in the area.
GPG also conducted focus groups with a variety of Fenton residents, including seniors,
teenagers, business owners and local leaders to determine what they view as missing in
downtown and what they would like to preserve. A detailed summary of the focus group
discussions has been attached in the appendix of this report.
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The area was visited during the daytime, as well as in the evening, to gain a qualitative
understanding of the retail gravitational and traffic patterns throughout the study area.
We then defined a trade area for the Fenton DDA based on this field evaluation and
information provided by the client and focus groups. Population and demographic
characteristics were collected by Census Tract and then updated based on information
gathered from various local sources. This study assumes that all local data is accurate
and reliable.
Finally, based on the population and demographic characteristics of the trade area, the
existing and known retail competition, and traffic and retail gravitational patterns, we
developed our qualitative assessment for the retail component of Fenton. This
assessment included incorporating the existing square footages for a variety of retail
categories, the expenditure potential for each retail category and the growth of the area to
determine what retail categories are under-represented.
The expenditure potential refers to the total dollar amount estimated to be available for
each retail category, as published by the U.S. Census Bureau, and supplemented with
data from Claritas, Inc. Expenditure potential will not increase for any given retail
category as more competitors are introduced into a market, but rather the market share for
each unit will be redistributed. Expenditure potential will increase with population
growth and an increase in household income levels.
By calculating what proportion of the area’s expenditure potential is already accounted
for by the existing and planned retail, it can be determined what retail categories have
sufficient potential remaining. This methodology assumes there is no “over-storing” in a
market. In other words, each retail category will attempt to reach the limit of its
expenditure potential, but not go beyond it.
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The Fenton area is located at the axis of three merging growth corridors: Flint, Northern
Oakland County and the Ann Arbor-Brighton U.S. 23 Freeway.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Genesee County
Genesee County is the fourth largest county in Michigan. During the 1990s, the
population in the city of Flint and inner suburbs declined, while the cities and townships
in the southern portion of the county grew rapidly. The growth in these southern
communities was due in part to middle-class people migrating there from Detroit for
cheaper housing and more space.
At the same time, the number of Genesee County residents who commute to Oakland
County for work increased 134%, while the number of commuting jobs in Genesee
County fell by 6%, an indicator of the region’s economic ties to Detroit. However, this
also reflects the weakness in Genesee County’s economy. Genesee County actually lost
jobs during the 1990s, when the nation as a whole was experiencing growth. Most hardhit was the manufacturing industry, which decreased 40%. However, the demographic
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makeup of communities within Genesee County varies greatly, as indicated in the table
below:
Bachelor Degree
Median Home
Median Household
Median Age
or Higher
Value
Income
Fenton (City)
34.5 years
15.6%
$93,980
$50,850
Fenton (Township)
39.1 years
21.8%
$142,400
$80,200
Linden
39 Years
16.6%
$100,458
$59,700
31.1 Years
10.7%
$48,009
$30,565
City/Town
Flint
As the above map indicates, the southern portion of Genesee County saw substantial population
growth between 1990 and 2000.
Livingston and Oakland Counties
Fenton is also adjacent to Livingston and northern Oakland Counties and will draw a
large portion of its customer base from these areas. Livingston County as a whole
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experienced population growth over 20% between 1990 and 2000. Northern Oakland
County has been experiencing similarly high levels of growth.
Livingston County has been seeing such increases in population for the last 3 decades, as
the table below indicates. SEMCOG1 anticipates that over the next 20 years, Livingston
County will see a 17% increase in population per decade.
Livingston County Population Growth
Population
1
Percent Change
1970
58,967
1980
100,289
70.1%
1990
115,645
15.3%
1999
151,496
31%
2000
156,951
3.6%
SouthEast Michigan Council of Governments
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These significant growth rates will be significant to the retail development in Fenton. As
more and more people move to Livingston and northern Oakland Counties and commute
into the Detroit area, the customer base for retail will expand. In fact, the exceptional
choice in shopping areas can actually serve as an amenity, enticing people to move to the
area. For more detail on the demographic comparisons between Genesee, Livingston and
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Oakland Counties and the Fenton area, refer to the Trade Areas section of this report and
Exhibit F in the Appendix.
As these exurban Detroit counties grow, commuting trends are changing. In Livingston
County, for example, the number of people who commute outside the county to work was
45% in 1970 and 53% by 1980. By 1990, the proportion of commuters to other counties
was 57%. Those people working outside the county in 1990 were commuting to Oakland
County (17.9%), Washtenaw County (15.2%) and Wayne County (13.8%). These trends
in commuting will likely continue to spread north and west from Detroit.
The primary and total trade areas for Fenton include over 315,000 persons, with 124,000 households
Earning a median annual income of $52,700.
THE TRADE AREAS
The trade areas for the Fenton DDA were defined through a variety of factors, including
accessibility, existing and planned competition, physical and psychological barriers and
overall drawing power of the area. Based on discussions with the DDA, city officials,
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residents and business owners, GPG defined the primary trade area to include the
following cities of Fenton, Linden, Holly and Grand Blanc, with the total trade extending
to include much of Flint, Durand, Byron Township and Hartland. It is assumed in the
analysis that at least some of the Fenton DDA’s customers will come from beyond the
trade area boundaries, and that these customers will only frequent the study area once
every 6 months.
Primary Trade Area
The Primary Trade area includes many wealthy lake front residents.
The primary trade area includes those customers who are likely to visit the Fenton
downtown or Silver Lake Village on average of once a week for their neighborhood and
convenience shopping, dining, entertainment and recreation. The Fenton DDA will be
the primary shopping destination for these and larger retail needs.
The primary trade area is defined approximately as:
• Southern edge of Flint City Limit to the north
• 2 miles east of Holly Town boundary to the east
• Hartland city limit to the south
• Town of Argentine to the west
The Secondary Trade Area
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The secondary trade area is defined as the area from which the Fenton DDA will derive
approximately 75% of all sales and from which people will generally frequent the
retailers 1-2 times per month on average. The secondary trade area is approximately
bounded by:
• Flushing town boundary (northern edge) to the north
• Just west of State Highway 15 to the east
• 3 miles south of M-59 to the south
• 10 miles from US 23 to the west
•
Demographic Characteristics
The primary trade area is estimated to have 83,000 residents in 2003, increasing to
87,800 people in 2008, an average annual increase of 1.1%. The number of households
are projected to increase at a similar rate, increasing from 31,800 in 2003 to 34,500 in
2008, an average annual increase of 1.6%. This growth rate is lower than the projected
rate for southern Genesee County because it includes a portion of southern Flint and
slower growing communities such as Grand Blanc.
The primary trade area is older and has good income levels and relatively high education
levels. Median age is 37.5 years (2003), and median household income levels of
$68,000. Twenty percent of residents over the age of 25 have at least a bachelor’s
degree.
Housing stock in the primary trade area is older, with 40.4% of the housing built before
1970 and another 20.4% built between 1970 and 1979. Only 28% of the housing stock
was built after 1989. How 10 years or less (61%), while only 16.6% have been there
more than 20 years. This data reflects the number of families who are choosing the area
to raise their families because they desire a small town close to major employment
centers.
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Fenton has many find historic homes, some of which have been updated into offices.
The secondary trade area is projected to have 314,600 people in 2003, increasing 0.5%
annually to 322,100 persons in 2008. The number of households are expected to
increase a similar rate, from 120,000 in 2003 to 124,100 households in 2008. The
secondary trade area is slightly younger than the primary trade area with a median age of
34.7 years. Median household income is moderate at $52,700 and 14.7% of the residents
over the age of 25 has a bachelor’s degree or higher.
As with the primary trade area, housing stock in the secondary trade is older, with 58.1%
of the homes being built before 1970 and only 16% being constructed since 1989.
Almost 60% of residents have been in their homes for less than 10 years, while only
about 18% have been there 20 or more years.
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Fenton’s new senior housing development is located adjacent to the city hall and helps to bring
many residents into the downtown. More multi-family housing development in the downtown
area will help to attract new retailers and restaurants.
The table below compares the total trade area demographic characteristics with those for
a 3-mile ring, Genesee, Livingston and Oakland Counties.
Characteristics
Median Household
Total Trade
Genesee
Livingston
Area
3-Mile Ring
County
County
Oakland County
$41,700
$58,400
$48,100
$73,900
$74,500
41.9 Years
38.0Years
35.4 Years
36.5 Years
37.0 Years
2.1
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.5
Income
Median Age
Persons Per Household
*Source: ScanUS, Inc. and U.S. Census Bureau
DRIVE TIMES
Although Fenton is located with-in a 30 minute drive time of several major urban areas
including: Flint, Novi and Auburn Hills, its residents can choose only from three major
shopping centers: Silver Lake Village, Genesee Valley Mall and Great Lakes Crossing.
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.
Drive-Time Demographic Comparison
10-Minute Drive
20-Minute Drive
30-Minute Drive
2002 Population
Characteristic
47,300
293,600
705,900
2007 Estimated Population
50,900
310,100
743,800
7.6%
5.6%
5.4%
37.3 Years
35.7 Years
35.8 Years
Total Per Capita Income
$27,981
$24,447
$25,497
Median Household Income
$62,295
$52,678
$56,790
Median Disposable Income
$51,191
$43,791
$56,335
2.5
2.5
2.6
Projected 2002-07 Population Growth
Median Age
Average Household Size
*Source: ScanUS and U.S. Census data
SITE CHARACTERISTICS
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Downtown Fenton remains at the major cross roads of the region. The recent opening of Leroy
Street and the proposed new rail road crossing-connection of Silver Lake Road will significantly
enhance the retail potential for the downtown shops.
Access
After decades of being cut-off from surround streets, downtown Fenton’s accessibility
has been significantly improved with the recent opening of Leroy Street. Access to the
downtown and Silver Lake Village will be even more improved with the planned new rail
road crossing at Silver Lake Road and Leroy Street. The greater Fenton area is also
easily accessible via U.S. Highway 23, either from Brighton, Ann Arbor or Detroit to the
south or from Flint to the north. Silver Lake Village is located directly off U.S. 23 and the
downtown area can be quickly reached from either Owen (which becomes Shiawassee
Road) or Silver Lake Roads. Regional east-west access does not exist, but Fenton is still
easily accessible from Lansing to the west and areas such as Holly and Grand Blanc to
the east.
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The proposed new rail road crossing will link Silver Lake Road and Main Street ,will remove
a bottleneck and make access to the downtown much easier for shoppers.
Visibility and Parking
The downtown area can be easily viewed from Silver Lake Road at Leroy Street, giving
its shopping district much local exposure. The Silver Lake Village area has excellent
visibility from US 23 in both directions. Ingress/egress from Silver Lake Village is
adequate and is assumed to continue to be so throughout any additional development.
While some may not be able to park directly in front of their primary destination, both the
Downtown area and Silver Lake Village have ample parking. Fenton has plenty of
surface lots and on-street parking with an overall ratio of 4 cars per 1000 sf of
commercial building. Most successful downtowns have an overall parking ration of 2.73.0 cars per 1000 of building. Recently, the Urban Land Institute has lowered ideal
suburban shopping center parking ratios to 4.0 cars per 1000.
This study estimates that presently Fenton has approximately 70,000 sf of gross
commercial building area in the historic downtown area, including the bank, historic
block and the one-level shopping center (NIC the Church). There are an estimated 280
surface parking and on-street parking stalls in the Historic area. Future retail
development will require additional parking in both the downtown and Silver Lake
Village area.
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Fenton is currently home to Silver Lake Village, a shopping area which is home to a variety of retailers and
centers within the complex. Existing retailers include Wal-Mart, Home Depot, VG’s, Farmer Jack, Michael’s
and Sears Hardware.
Existing Conditions
The Fenton DDA consists of both the Silver Lake Village area and downtown Fenton
(including Dibbleville). Silver Lake Village is a large complex comprised of major
discount department stores, big-box retailers, restaurants, office and multiple-family
residential. This shopping district currently houses a number of retail concepts,
including Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Sears Hardware, VG’s, Farmer Jack and a variety of
restaurants from fast food to a quality steak house. Silver Lake Village comprises the
vast majority of the DDA’s present retail and restaurant space.
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Downtown Fenton has lots of underutilized prime development land.
Although only of fraction of its historic pre-urban renewal size, downtown Fenton has an
once in a generation opportunity to re-build itself. Given the tremendous amount of new
retail likely to locate in the Fenton area, many tenants would be attracted to build in the
downtown area. However, such leading regional and national retailers will need a
significant amount of new buildings and parking if they are to locate downtown rather
than along the freeways. Fortunately, much of downtown Fenton is vacant, surface
parking or other underutilized land uses that lend themselves to new development.
Recently Brighton, Northville, Howell and Royal Oak have implemented new
development models that may be appropriate for downtown Fenton. These new types
tend to be mixed-use, 3-5 levels with retail located on the first level. Office and
residential occupy the upper levels of the new mixed-use buildings.
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The French Laundry is a new popular Deli that indicates a large pent up demand for better “hip”
businesses in the downtown area.
Downtown retail currently consists of “independent” retailers that cater to the greater
Fenton area. Included in the mix are a quilt shop, gifts/baskets, the Fenton House hotel
(restaurant) and some service retail. The existing business mix will benefit from the
development of new retailers that don’t directly compete with the retailer’s specialty. One
of the newer businesses, The French Laundry (Deli) has been a very popular upscale deli
and indicates the large pent-up demand for new quality goods and services in the
downtown.
Historic Fenton’s downtown are Dibbleville are disjointed by the community center, parks, post
office and city hall. New mixed-use in-fill buildings could help to connect the two districts and
improve their retail trade.
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The exact boundaries of downtown Fenton remains unclear to many. Some residents
consider Dibbleville downtown Fenton while others view the area north of City Hall as
downtown Fenton. Many residents consider Dibbleville to be outside of downtown
Fenton. In reality both areas plus others are actually part of the downtown area.
However various areas are disjointed making cross-shopping difficult.
The Old Fire station is located in the middle of the downtown and Dibbleville, and could become the
missing link to connect the two areas. This building with its water front location could be an ideal
restaurant.
Linking the two downtown districts together as well as the adjacent surrounding areas
will create a critical mass that could significantly increase the number of shoppers in the
down area.
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The most significant competition to the Fenton DDA area is along Miller Road in Flint, which houses the
Genesee Valley Mall, as well as a number of other retail centers.
Other Shopping Areas
The Fenton DDA will experience moderate competition at the regional level, but the
downtown has to compete with other small downtowns such as Brighton, Holly and to a
degree Howell. Fenton has the capacity to be a retail focal point for southern Genesee,
and northern Oakland and Livingston counties and can use its locational advantages to
minimize the impact of surrounding competition.
The dominant regional shopping center in the area is the Genesee Valley Mall, a 1.3
million sf center anchored by JC Penney, Sears, Mervyns and Marshall Fields. The mall
opened in 1970 and currently draws from across Genesee County. During discussions
with local residents, many of them cited Genesee Valley Mall as their primary regional
shopping destination.
Genesee Valley Mall is surrounded by a number of power centers and other retailers.
Included in these centers are retailers such as Office Depot, TJ Maxx, MC Sports, Kids
“R” Us, Borders, and a number of restaurants and entertainment opportunities. These
centers provide additional retail synergy and increase the drawing power of the mall.
Other regional shopping centers in the Detroit-Flint area, such as Great Lake Crossing,
Twelve Oaks Mall and Summit Place Mall attract only occasional shopping from Fenton
area residents due to their distance from Fenton and the easier alternatives around
Genesee Valley Mall.
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Most of the remaining shopping center competition consists of small neighborhood
centers housing small supermarkets and drug stores and convenience-oriented shopping.
Included in these are Grand Mall in Grand Blanc, a 139,000 sf neighborhood center
anchored by Kroger and HobbyTown. Grand Mall has a published sales per sf of $125
and advertises rental rates of $10-31 per sf. Other centers include an older center across
from Grand Mall housing small and tired looking Farmer Jack and Kmart units. Similar
levels of competition lies the south in Hartland at the intersection of US 23 and M-59.
Due to their distance from Fenton and the availability of such shopping opportunities
within Fenton, these centers have a limited impact on the study area, but help delimit the
primary trade area for Fenton.
Fenton’s specialty shops benefit from Linden’s quaint collection of antique, home store and
restaurants. Both historic districts create a unique destination that attracts shoppers from over
50 miles.
Although Fenton will have to compete with other nearby towns for the shopping dollars
its unique location at the axis of three growth areas gives it a real advantage. In order to
both retain local residents and capture new customers, Fenton will need to create a unique
niche for itself.
RECOMMENDED RETAIL STRATEGY
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Given that the greater Fenton region will likely be flooded with numerous new retailers
and shopping centers, the DDA has an excellent opportunity to plan for and develop one
of the state’s best collection of quality local and national retailers. However, in today’s
changing retail climate, it is difficult for a shopping district to be all things to all markets.
This study recommends that the DDA consider coordinating the development of the
historic downtown and Silver Lake Village as two unique shopping districts.
Historic Downtown
Fenton’s historic downtown is ideally located to be the primary collection of neighborhood goods
and services including grocery, cafes and specialty retailers.
The centrally located historic downtown is ideally located to become the region’s leading
neighborhood shopping area. Both the downtown area and Dibbleville could be
combined to offer a wide range of cafes, restaurants, pharmacy, grocery, specialty
bakeries, hardware, florists and retailers offering goods and services needed on a daily
basis from the local residents. The neighborhood shops combined with the existing Post
Office, City Hall, waterfront park and historic museum can create a destination that will
likely attract shoppers from beyond the surrounding neighborhoods and communities.
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Mixed use residential and commercial built at medium density (20-30 units per acre) in the
downtown can help to support new retailers and make the downtown a vibrant walkable center.
This study also concludes that as much as possible, there should be office and residential
mixed into the downtown area, with 3-5 level buildings. The new office development
will help to support better restaurants and the residential will provide for a more 24-7
walkable community.
The following retail types could help to position the downtown as the region’s leading
collection of neighborhood shops.
•
4,000 sf women’s apparel
•
2,000 sf men’s apparel
•
5,000 sf unisex apparel
•
1,500 sf children’s apparel
•
8,000 sf quality restaurants
•
8,000 sf family restaurants (without liquor)
•
3,000 sf carry-out food
•
20,000 sf green grocer, such as Wild Oats, Whole Foods or Trader Joe’s
•
3,000 sf specialty foods, such as bagels, ice cream or coffee shops
•
3,500 sf bar/tavern
•
2,500 sf appliances/electronics
•
4,500 sf book stores
•
12,500 sf drug stores
•
2,500 sf health/beauty, such as vitamins
•
1,600 sf laundry/dry cleaning
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•
2,000 sf personal services, such as a salon, weight loss or tanning
•
3,000 sf toy/hobby
•
2,000 sf service retail
•
5,000 sf entertainment/recreation, such as dance, martial arts, fitness
Silver Lake Village
As national fashion, lifestyle or big box retailers seek the Fenton-Grand Blanc market,
Silver Lake Village area offers an excellent potential location.
Already an established successful regional shopping destination, Silver Lake Village is
likely to continue to attract new leading retailers. This study recommends that major
anchor commercial tenants be encouraged to locate in the Silver Lake area. In addition,
should new fashion and lifestyle tenants seek a location in the Grand Blanc-Fenton area,
parts of the Silver Lake Village or adjacent underutilized sites may be considered. The
recently opened Village of Rochester Hills (former Meadowbrook Mall) represents an
example of a new lifestyle center built at the site of an existing shopping mall.
Any additions to Silver Lake Village should be designed as an open-air, town center
format with storefront parking, sidewalks with attractive landscaping and lighting.
Ideally, there will be more than one story buildings with ground floor retail and office
and/or residential above. While this may be difficult to fit into new mixed-use growth at
at Silver Lake Village, every effort should be made to accommodate a new urban format,
to control suburban sprawl in the region.
Of the potential total 750,000 sf of supportable retail in Fenton, this study recommends
that 650,000 sf (88% of the total) is likely to be located along the U.S. 23 - Silver Lake
Village area.
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Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
•
250,000 sf department stores, such as Sears Grand, Parisian
•
85,000 sf junior department stores, such as Kohl’s
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110,000 sf discount department stores
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125,000 sf warehouse clubs
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6,000 sf women’s apparel
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4,000 sf men’s apparel
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20,000 sf unisex apparel
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1,000 sf men’s shoes
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1,800 sf ladies shoes
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1,500 sf athletic shoes
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1,000 sf shoes/accessories
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10,000 sf quality restaurants (serving liquor)
•
2,000 sf fast food, such as a deli
•
2,500 sf appliances/electronics
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2,500 sf gas/convenience
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1,800 sf copying/printing
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14,000 sf dollar/variety, such as Tuesday Morning
•
8,500 sf furniture
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4,500 sf home furnishings
•
3,000 sf music stores
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5,000 sf sporting goods
• 2,500 sf service retail, such as travel agents, investments, insurance
In either location, Silver Lake Village or downtown, shop owners within the town center
will need to operate in a sound, proven manner. Store hours must be convenient for the
customers, not the owner, or people will shop elsewhere. Store fronts should be
tastefully decorated and well maintained, including cleaning the glass twice daily and
repainting no less than once a year. Attractive landscaping is also a plus.
Rationale
The results of this analysis are reflective of the following factors:
1. Fenton is located along a significant north-south corridor in southeast
Michigan. U.S. 23 is a rapidly growing corridor which connects Flint to Ann
Arbor and Toledo. It is quickly becoming a major commuting corridor for the
Detroit area.
2. Housing and population growth is projected to be very strong, a vital factor in
retail development. Population growth will enhance sales performance for
retailers and ensure their longevity, especially as Fenton continues its
development as a bedroom community for Flint and Detroit.
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Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
3. Income levels are currently good, as are other important demographic
characteristics, such as educational levels, median age and population growth.
4. Fenton already has a number of amenities, including the Shiawassee River,
existing historic buildings and a small-town charm. However, some of the
existing space is underutilized, detracting from the overall feel of the town.
5. Fenton is within an easy drive of several major metropolitan areas, including
Flint, Brighton, Ann Arbor, Lansing and northwestern Detroit, giving it a large
population base to draw from.
6. Fenton went through some past “urban renewal” which unfortunately resulted
in the destruction of some historic buildings and a disjointed feel to the downtown
area. However, with proper planning, this obstacle can be overcome.
IMPLEMENTAION OPTIONS
Even with strong market, it is unlikely that downtown Fenton will reach its full market
potential on its own. Suburban “Greenfield” locations are easier and more attractive than
in-fill downtowns to most commercial developers. Should the community elect to attract
significant amounts of quality mixed-use growth in both the downtown and Silver Lake
area, it has two primary options.
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Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
Seattle recently opened this new mixed-use grocery store and residential development in one of
its small neighborhoods to improve the quality of life for its residents.
Option One: Implement a new master plan and overlay zoning code that gives additional
density and development rights to existing under-utilized sites. The height and density
bonuses would be in exchange for high building and development standards. Many
cities using this method have seen significant amounts of growth in a short time period
including: Birmingham, Howell, Naples Florida, and Northville. Option Two: The
DDA or equal would assemble ownership or long-term leases for key parcels that
represent a primary public interest. These assemble sites could be planned and qualified
developers sought to co-build the new urban in-fill buildings.
Both implementation options will require a significant amount of planning, coordination
risk and vision. It is likely that major new infrastructure investment will be required
including parking garages, utility upgrades and road improvements. However, the long
term rewards are potentially unlimited.
END OF REPORT
Fenton, Michigan Focus Group Notes
June 24, 2003
Many focus group members expressed a desire for Fenton’s downtown areas to have a more diverse
selection of restaurant and small shops.
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Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
The following represents outline notes of focus group sessions on June 24, 2003 by Gibbs
Planning Group at the City of Fenton City Hall. These group sizes ranged from 3-8
members each and were held for GPG to gain an informal observation of shopping trends
and desires of the Fenton Community.
Group 1 – City Staff
Parks: Safety and Security was discussed. It was noted that vandalism of the park and
gazebo has lessened since security was added. Bush Park has security issues, mostly
vandalism, not really violent crimes. Other issues discussed:
• Funding could be improved for maintenance of city parks and public spaces.
• They would like an outdoor ice arena, possibly in Bush Park. Concept plan is
there but lack funding.
• Don’t see t
• he need for a tot lot as the schools have large play areas.
• Concerts at the gazebo – Start in June and run every Thursday through August.
Usually get 300-500 people at each. People come from Flint, Swartz Creek and
Linden, as well as Fenton.
• The City hosts a successful Farmers Market in August.
• Are starting up a “Taste of Fenton” festival – currently draws from about a 10
Mile radius.
Fenton Focus Groups
Development:
• Most housing development recently has been multi-family units. Includes
Orchard Hills Phase II (80 condos), Eagles on the Waters Edge coming online
slowly – getting 300-400 units a year. When economy dropped building stopped.
It is starting to come back but slowly.
• Houses are selling in the $140 -220,000 range. Very few lake properties and few
homes over $300,000. Most homebuyers are moving in from Oakland and Wayne
Counties but some from Washtenaw.
• Locals think traffic is getting bad.
Citizen and Retailer Complaints:
• Traffic and traffic patterns. Too much traffic and not enough flow.
• Retailers want additional signs and do not want handicapped spaces in front of
their stores.
• Parking is an issue, especially during special events.
• Retailers want the ability to display merchandise on the sidewalks.
• There have been complaints about the turnaround time for permits. To renovate
an existing building, if there are no changes to the plan, it is a 30-60 day process.
This is slower than surrounding areas but not as bad as places like Novi and
Birmingham.
• Taxes are good compared to surrounding areas. They are third lowest in the
county for cities.
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Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
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Most of the tax revenues from the Silver Lake Village goes to the DDA –
approximately a half million dollars annually (14% of total operating budget).
Downtown businesses contribute 1-2% of the DDA’s operating budget.
People want to see more restaurants and cafes. There is not a lot of outdoor
dining and people would like more.
Old fire station is not being used for anything.
They need 2 more fire stations – one in Silver Lake Village area and one on the
other side of the tracks to service both sides of the city. Most of the fire calls are
to the senior facilities.
Most accidents are at Silver Lake Road and US 23.
There are several large developments coming on Grange Hall Road.
Many people think Fenton is a great place to live but there is nothing to do.
“Didn’t know Fenton existed until I moved here” is echoed a lot. Not much to
draw people in.
To try to deal with this, they had considered options like a skate park, but they
can’t decide where to put it, who will fund it and how to deal with the liability.
Quality of life is good but need stuff for kids.
It is hard to get a tavern because of the number of churches and there are distance
restrictions.
City needs some architectural guidelines. DDA needs to throw some resources
into redevelopment.
There are concerns about developing on Leroy as this would take visibility from
businesses on Walnut. They want to consider town-homes. However, no one
currently can afford the assembly of the properties. In addition, people already
live above the shops.
Something like Howell Town Commons would be great.
Shopping – People go to 12 Oaks more than Genessee Valley because they feel
safer there. It is hard to buy clothes in Fenton. Elder-Beerman was supposed to
move in but it didn’t happen.
Would like to see a Mexican restaurant, mid-price places. Want eating places in a
range between Applebee’s and the hotel. Want sandwiches and reasonable prices.
Fenton Hotel used ot be open for lunch but was to expensive. Need quicker
service and better priced.
Want a “burger and beer” place.
The only coffee place is the French Laundry, but it closes at 4 PM. A hot dog
wagon would be good.
General feeling/observation that if the land was cleared and at market rate,
developers would be lining up to buy and develop, but assemblage is expensive.
People occasionally go to Linden but mostly to dine. Many of the people in the
Fenton area are new and don’t know about Linden.
Group 2 – Business Owners, Community Center and Chamber of Commerce
• Camera Shop is looking to expand store to include on-site film development.
Shop was here since 1947. Present owner bought the store 2 years ago. Sales are
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Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
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going up slightly every year. After 9/11 more people were fixing cameras instead
of buying new but camera sales are back up. He has lived in Fenton all his life.
Specialty Shop: It was initially just a basket shop but people wanted stuff to put
into them. She sells a lot of Michigan products. She has been at her current
location 6 years. She says the building next door to her has prime retail space that
is being used for storage. She gets a lot of residual business from the shoe store,
hair cut traffic and the camera store. She has a UPS store in her shop. Her usual
basket is between $40 and $100 and much if her business is done around
Christmas. She gets a lot of out of towners.
Book Store is around 3,600 sf. And considering moving downtown, but the
expressway is important for business. Have a good inside connection with the
Coffee Beanery next door.
Chamber has about 375 members, including members from Hartland, Grand
Blanc and other nearby areas. National chains only buy a membership when they
first come to town.
Jewelers Store: The business started in the lobby of a theatre in Flint in 1932.
They just bought the State Bank Building for their business as they wanted to own
instead of rent as rents are getting out of control. The majority of customers come
from Fenton, Holly and Linden. They get some customers from the Upper
Peninsula and out of state due to the excellence of their repair services. They also
do antique clock repair. They have been in business in Fenton since 1982 and
sales have increased steadily every year.
Community Center: has aerobics, wedding receptions (booked every weekend
from May to August). Accommodates 300 people with no dance floor, 250 with a
dance floor. There is a stage that can house plays for an audience up to 400
people, but it hasn’t been used in years. Would like to see more senior groups,
kids art classes, school age art show. Would like to display historic Fenton
memorabilia. Community Center is mostly local clientele. Budget is $100,000,
with 60% coming from sources such as the Rockham Foundation Endowment and
40% from rentals. Center has a kitchen but renters must supply a caterer.
Building needs some minor repair (painting, etc). A nice exhibit would attract
more people to Fenton.
General Comments/Concerns:
• Need more parking and parking enforcement. People park illegally and never get
a ticket.
• Where is downtown Fenton? Is it Dibbelville or the north part? Both?
Dibbelville was old part.
• Group was split on whether Dibbelville and north section should be one or
separate. Most felt should be one and should include grain elevator and Fenton
Hotel.
• Would like to see east side of Leroy updated. Make them blend in with
downtown and bring back the character. Opening the street helped.
• The 4th of July attracts everyone. There is a lot of loyalty to the city. During
celebration can’t even walk on the sidewalk there are so many people.
35
Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
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Everyone wants someone else to be there first, but someone needs to make the
first move.
Want a lower cost restaurant with liquor, such as Chili’s, but not a chain. Don’t
want a chain in downtown, want them in Silver Lake Village, unless they will go
into the old buildings and keep the historic look.
Need clothing and shoes.
If upscale retail is developed well it could go into downtown.
They like the Village of Rochester Hills (former Meadow Brook Mall) concept.
Need multiple restaurants.
Do some shopping at Genessee Valley Mall but 12 Oaks and Great Lakes
Crossing more, due to safety issues. Most Fenton residents go to Flint about once
a week to Miller Road.
They don’t really see a lot of extra business from the concerts.
Would like to turn the old fire station into a restaurant. City may be able to lease it
for this or some other purpose.
Would like to see an ice cream and coffee shops and for them to be open during
concerts.
Group 3 – General Citizens
• Not enough for kids to do, should have activities like a skate park, etc. There are
enough restaurants, need shoe stores – older people can’t shop at Payless.
• Bakery (French Laundry) too expensive
• Transportation can be a problem – would like a taxi or bus from Dibbelville to
Silver Lake Village. Go to Kmart and Wal-Mart but would like a Target. Older
population cannot get to Flint.
• Would like a Whole Foods or a Wild Oats, some kind of green grocer.
• Want a cultural center, performing arts concerts, etc.
• Younger people do not plan to stay in Fenton. May move back later in life when
they want to settle.
• People like living in downtown – can walk to library, post office, etc.
• Downtown used to be nice and used to have places for kids to gather (malt shops,
etc).
• Want to have a place where house bands can play, a teen club – would give the
kids something to do. This would attract kids from Holly and Linden.
Community Center is too expensive to rent out. Need more for the 16-18 year old
crowd.
• There is a rumor about Farmer Jack pulling out. Want to keep a grocery store on
the north end.
• State Bank goes to Donner House once a month to cash checks etc, saving
residents a trip out to do this.
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Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
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Younger people shop in Flint when they need something quick but go to Novi to
shop more often. Shop at American Eagle Outfitters, Forever 21, Aeropostale and
JC Penney.
Older people wish for the town the way it used to be (1930s). City need to pay
more attention to what people want and what they ask for. Don’t need more
residents and businesses. It was best before the war, had ice cream, Kirky’s
shoes, etc., drug stores.
Sorry to see little boutiques closing up.
Need more parking. Feel Dibbelville and “downtown” are separate places.
Can only walk to 2 or 3 restaurants.
Want stuff to do, clean beaches, park. Go to beach but don’t go into water,
bathrooms are disgusting – can’t lock bathroom doors because they are so badly
vandalized.
Group 4 – City Council
• What do people want? Do not want more pizza places. Do not want buildings in
front buildings that are already there. Do not want it to be right up to the street.
• Want a Bread bakery and small food stores.
• Outdoor seating at restaurants should be encouraged.
• Want wider sidewalks in the downtown and some neighborhoods. Want to be like
a small scaled Savannah, Georgia.
Group 4 – City Council (Cont.)
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People relate to the French Laundry is good for the community.
Things are done and then not maintained – start things and don’t and don’t finish
Traffic is a problem in the entire area.
Not a lot to come downtown for except for special events.
Not a lot of cohesiveness downtown ie the several districts.
Need more buildings, more space for people to open businesses
Don’t have businesses due to lack of supply not demand
Lot of people here do not shop at quaint little shops
Stores need to stay open later but there are not enough of them
Need people 24/7 to survive
People would come downtown to shop if they had a reason to
Many members liked Howell, Brighton, downtown Rochester and and Northville.
How do we get to what people want to shop at?
Have a lot of things (restaurants, butcher shops) that didn’t make it
Traffic has increased with Silver Lake Village – Will adding retail in the
downtown will only increase traffic? Or will it help to reduce traffic trips.
Need to make downtown the center of the community but not necessarily the
business center – it can be a cultural/community center
Make fire station a nice restaurant and small shops.
Want to be able to get out and walk to shops and restaurants.
A movie theater, mix of uses would be great.
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Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003
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Need clothing stores in downtown area.
Community needs a small grocery store, have to get into car to get milk and bread
and go to VG’s or Farmer Jack at Silver Lake Village
Looked at cultural center at Lincoln Street near Bush Park
Can’t try to compete with Silver Lake Village.
Want a place that reminds them of what Fenton was like 50-60 years ago.
Would a kitchen store with a cooking class work?
Should Farmer’s Market expand? Or should it be a public market with permanent
vendors.
Fenton Focus Groups
38
Fenton, Michigan
October 1, 2003

retail market analysis

Transcription

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