Program - Kraks Fonds Byforskning

Transcription

New developments in
the analysis of residential
location choice
Copenhagen, October 23, 2015
Workshop program
New developments in the analysis of
residential location choice
Fæstningens Materialgård (the Fortifications Depot), Copenhagen
New developments in the analysis of residential location choice
1
Workshop program, October 23, 2015
WIFI: DAC Guest
08.45-09.15
Registration and morning coffee
09.15-09.30
Introduction:
Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall (the Kraks Fond)
Ismir Mulalic (Technical University of Denmark)
09.30-10.15
Henry Overman (The London School of Economics and Political Science): Sorting and spatial disparities:
implications for urban policy
Discussed by: Jos Van Ommeren (VU University Amsterdam)
10.15-11.00
Nathalie Picard (Université de Cergy-Pontoise): Couple Residential Location and Spouses Workplaces
Discussed by: Maria Börjesson (KTH Royal Institute of Technology)
11.00-11.20
Coffee break
11.20-11.50
Amy Binner (University of Exeter): The distributional consequences of local environmental interventions:
An equilibrium sorting model with buyers and sellers, renters and landlords
Discussed by: Bjarne Madsen (Centre for Regional and Tourism research)
11.50-12.20
Lars Nesheim (University College London): A Selection Model of Hedonic House Values and Rents
Discussed by: Cathrine Ulla Jensen (University of Copenhagen)
12.20-12.50
Luis Quintero (Johns Hopkins University): A New Approach to Estimating Hedonic Pricing – Functions for
Metropolitan Housing Markets
Discussed by: Pascal Mossay (Newcastle University)
12.50-13.45
Lunch
13.45-14.30
Nicolai Kuminoff (Arizona State University): Partial Identification of Preferences from a Dual-Market
Sorting Equilibrium
Discussed by: Bo Jellesmark Thorsen (University of Copenhagen)
14.30-15.15
Jan Rouwendal (VU University Amsterdam): Public transport and car ownership: evidence from the Copenhagen
metropolitan area
Discussed by: Gabriel Pons Rotger (The Danish National Centre for Social Research)
15.15-15.35
Coffee break
15.35-16.05
Simon Juul Hviid (Aarhus Universitet): Valuation of Non-Traded Amenities in a Dynamic Demand Model
Discussed by: Mogens Fosgerau (Technical University of Denmark)
16.05-16.35
H. Spencer Banzhaf (Georgia State University): Panel Data Hedonics: Rosen’s First Stage and Difference-inDifferences as ”Sufficient Statistics”
Discussed by: Toke Emil Panduro (University of Copenhagen)
16.35-17.20
Christopher Timmins (Duke University): Estimating the Marginal Willingness to Pay Function Without
Instrumental Variables
Discussed by: John Clapp (University of Connecticut)
17.20-17.30
Closure:
Ismir Mulalic (Technical University of Denmark)
Lars P. Geerdsen (the Kraks Fond)
17.30-18.30
Reception
2
Keynotes
3
1. Henry Overman
2. Nathalie Picard
3. Nicolai Kuminoff
Henry Overman, BSc. (Bristol), Msc. (LSE),
PhD. (LSE), AcSS, FRSA is Professor of
Economic Geography in the department of
Geography and Environment at the London
School of Economics. From 2008 to 2013
he directed the BIS/ESRC/WG funded Spatial Economics Research Centre. From September 2013 he is director of the new BIS/
CLG/ESRC What Works Centre for Local
Economic Growth. His current research interests include the causes and consequences of spatial disparities and the impact
of urban and regional policy. His research
has been published in leading economics
journals (The Review of Economics Studies
and The Quarterly Journal of Economics)
and leading economic geography journals
(Environment and Planning and Journal
of Economic Geography). He continues to
publish in journals from both disciplines.
He has provided policy advice to, amongst
others, the European Commission, Department for International Development,
Department for Business Innovation and
Skills, Department for Communities and
Local Government and the Department
for Transport, HM Treasury, the Manchester Independent Economic Review, the
North East Independent Economic Review
and Cambridgeshire County Council. He is
a member of the Manchester Economic
Advisory Panel and is also affiliated with
the Centre for Economic Performance and
the Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Nathalie Picard is a Professor of Economics
at the University of Cergy-Pontoise and researcher at THEMA and at Ecole Polytechnique. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from
the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences
Sociales. Nathalie Picard’s research areas
are micoroeconometrics, discrete choice
models, transport economics, urban economics, economics of the family, collective
models, risk analysis, policy evaluation, behavioral finance and demographic economics. Nathalie Picard’s research has been
published in Journal of Economic Theory,
Journal of Urban Economics, Transportation Science, Transportation Research,
Theory and Decision, Marketing Letters,
Mathematical Population Studies, Journal
of Population Economics. Nathalie Picard’s
research focuses on family decision process in transport, urban economics and
finance. Recent research topics include
couple’s location choice, couple’s mode
choice, joint departure time, collective
decision-making under risk, collective
discrete choice models, network equilibrium with heterogenous risk averse drivers,
value of information, and LUTI models.
Nicolai Kuminoff is an Assistant Professor
of Economics at Arizona State University
and NBER. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics
from North Carolina State University. His
primary research area is environmental
economics. His research has been published in the American Economic Review,
International Economic Review, Journal of
Economic Literature, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, and
Journal of Urban Economics. His research
focuses on understanding what can be learned about households’ heterogeneous
preferences for local public goods from
the observable features of spatial sorting
equilibria in markets for housing and other
goods. His recent research topics include
developing national accounts for non-market amenities, estimating the distributional welfare implications of policies designed to simplify choice architecture in
markets with incomplete information, and
estimating the value of a statistical life. Contact informations
E-mail: [email protected]
CV: www.public.asu.edu/~nkuminof/
Contact informations
CV: www.thema.u-cergy.fr/membres/
nathalie-picard
CV: www.lse.ac.uk/researchandexpertise/
experts/profile.aspx?KeyValue=h.g.overman%40lse.ac.uk
4
4. Jan Rouwendal
5. Christopher Timmins
Jan Rouwendal is a Professor at the Department of Spatial Economics of VU
University. He studied spatial economics
at Erasmus University Rotterdam and
holds a Ph.D. in Economics from VU University. His primary research area is urban
economics, but he has also an interest in
transportation economics and housing
market issues. Recent research topics include the economic valuation of cultural
heritage, social interaction effects and
hedonic analysis. Professor Rouwendal is
a research fellow of Tinbergen Institute,
the Amsterdam School of Real Estate and
Netspar. His research has been published
in the Journal of Urban Economics, Journal
of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Economic Geography, Regional Science and
Urban Economics, Real Estate Economics
and Transportation Research.
Christopher D. Timmins is a Professor in
the Department of Economics at Duke
University, with a secondary appointment
in Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment. He holds a BSFS degree from Georgetown University and a Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University. Professor
Timmins was an Assistant Professor in
the Yale Department of Economics before
joining the faculty at Duke in 2004. His
professional activities include teaching,
research, and editorial responsibilities.
Professor Timmins specializes in natural
resource and environmental economics,
but he also has interests in industrial organization, development, public and regional economics. He works on developing
new methods for non-market valuation
of local public goods and amenities, with
a particular focus on hedonic techniques and models of residential sorting. His
research has focused on measuring the
costs associated with exposure to poor
air quality, the benefits associated with
remediating brownfields and toxic waste
under the Superfund program, the valuation of non-marginal changes in disamenities, and the causes and consequences of
”environmental injustice”. His most recent
projects have examined various aspects of
the social costs of hydraulic fracturing for
the extraction of natural gas.
CV: www.feweb.vu.nl/nl/afdelingenen-instituten/spatial-economics/staff/
j-rouwendal/index.asp
Professor Timmins is a research associate in the Environmental and Energy Economics group at the National Bureau of
Economic Research, and has served as
a reviewer for numerous environmental,
urban, and applied microeconomics journals. He currently serves on the editorial
board of the American Economic Review
and is a co-editor of the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource
Economists.
CV: www.econ.duke.edu/people?Uil=timmins&subpage=profile
5
About the organizers
6
Kraks Fond –
Institute for Urban
Economic Research
Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research is an independent research
unit under the Krak Foundation. The Kraks
Fond Institute covers a research field of
economic, sociological, and geographical
issues. Results are available to decision
makers, the general public, and researchers alike.
DTU Transport
DTU Transport is a department at the
Danish Technical University (DTU). The
purpose of the department is to strengthen transport research with special focus
on such fields as transport economics and
transport modelling as well as transport
safety and risk. Within these research
fields DTU Transport carries out academic
research, applied research besides working
with innovation, consultancy services and
communication of know-how with a view to
making the results of research and development available for practical exploitation.
Ismir Mulalic
Ninette Pilegaard
Ismir Mulalic (1977) is an Associate Professor at the Technical University of Denmark. Ismir holds a Ph.D. in Economics
from the University of Copenhagen (2011).
His research areas are applied microeconomics and applied microeconometrics, in
particular urban economics and transportation economics. His research has been
published in the Economic Journal, The
Journal of Economic Geography, Transportation Research, Economics of Transportation and Transport Policy. Ismir’s research
focuses on both applied and theoretical
research problems. Recent research topics
include consumer choice behaviour for durables, the causal effect of commuting distance on workers’ wages, the redistributive effects of taxes on different commodity
categories, the residence choice decision
(residential sorting), the determinants of
the trucking firm fuel use, car use (rebound
effect) and parking policy.
Ninette Pilegaard (1972) is a Senior Researcher at the Technical University of
Denmark. Ninette holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Copenhagen
(2003). Her research areas are applied microeconomics and applied econometrics,
in particular transportation economics,
urban economics and labour markets. Her
research has been published in the Economic Journal, Regional Science and Urban
Economics, Journal of Transport Economics
and Policy and Danish Economic Journal.
Ninette’s research focuses on both applied and theoretical research problems.
Recent research topics include the residence choice decision (residential sorting),
the causal effect of commuting distance
on workers’ wages, commuting costs and
residential moving behavior, the effect of
firm relocation on worker-turnover, parking policy, wider economic benefits of
transport policies and transport regulation
and the labour market.
CV: www.transport.dtu.dk/english/
Service/Phonebook/Person?id=41321&cpid=55020&tab=1
CV: www.transport.dtu.dk/english/
Service/Phonebook/Person?id=38997&cpid=55012&tab=2&qt=dtupublicationquery
7
Abstracts
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Sorting and spatial disparities: implications for urban policy
Henry Overman
The London School of Economics and
Political Science
Abstract
Many countries exhibit large spatial disparities at a variety of spatial scales. It is increasingly well understood that a large part of these disparities can be explained by the sorting
of households and firms across space. This has profound implications for the formulation
and evaluation of urban policy. This session will discuss these issues from both the academic and policy maker perspective.
Couple Residential Location and Spouses Workplaces
Abstract
Pierre-André Chiappori
Columbia University
André de Palma
École Normale Supérieure de Cachan
Nathalie Picard
Université de Cergy-Pontoise
Ignacio A. Inoa
The main purpose of this paper is to study the bargaining power of the household members in the context of location decisions. One important side product of our analysis is the
computation of the values of time of the man and the woman. The transport literature
neglects the bargaining power, which leads to biased measures of the values of time.
We elaborate a new method to provide an unbiased measure of the value of time. More
specifically, using census data on the Paris Region, we are able to disentangle bargaining
power from the values of time of spouses. We show that the nationality of the couple,
their education level, as well as the age difference between spouses, play a crucial role
in determining bargaining power.
The distributional consequences of local environmental interventions:
An equilibrium sorting model with buyers and sellers, renters and landlords
Amy Binner
University of Exeter
Brett Day
University of East Anglia
Abstract
Understanding the magnitude and distribution of welfare effects from projects that
result in localised environmental change is of central importance in policy appraisal. We
develop an equilibrium sorting model with endogenous tenure choice to explore how
those welfare effects resolve in the medium-term as households respond by making new
location and tenure decisions. Such processes result in significant reallocation of welfare
across socioeconomic groups and between renters and owners. We conclude that the
partial measures of welfare change currently used for project appraisal provide highly
misleading guidance as to the actual distributional impacts of projects that change local
environmental quality.
9
A Selection Model of Hedonic House Values and Rents
Abstract
Jonathan Halket
University of Essex and CeMMAP
Lars Nesheim
University College London and CeMMAP
Florian Oswald
University College London
We use a large repeated cross-section of houses to estimate a selection model of the
supply of owner-occupied and rental housing. We find that physical characteristics and
unobserved heterogeneity and not location are important for selection. We interpret
this as strong evidence in favor of contracting frictions in the rental market relating to
maintenance and modification of a dwelling’s physical characteristics. Accounting for
selection is important for estimates of rent-to-price ratios and can explain some puzzling
correlations between rent-to-price ratios and homeownership rates.
A New Approach to Estimating Hedonic Pricing – Functions for Metropolitan
Housing Markets
Dennis Epple
Carnegie Mellon University
Luis Quintero
Johns Hopkins University
Holger Sieg
University of Pennsylvania
Abstract
We provide a new method for estimating hedonic functions in a metropolitan housing
market for both rental rates and real estate asset prices. First, our method treats housing quality as unobserved by the econometrician. Second, it deals with the problem
that implicit rental rates for owner-occupied housing are latent. Using a non-parametric
matching approach, we show how to identify the rent-to-value ratio as a function of
latent quality. Third, the paper provides a new estimation method for a generalization
that incorporates heterogeneity in preferences. To our knowledge, this is the first paper
that incorporates these in a unified treatment of metropolitan housing markets. We
apply our estimator to study the recent housing market crisis in the U.S. to investigate
the role of preference heterogeneity in residential housing choice. We use clustering
techniques to learn categorization of households into types based on age and number of
children. We obtain the robust result that the presence of children lowers the preference
for housing quality and increases the welfare sensitivity to changes in income and price.
The opposite happens as households age. Finally, we also estimated a joint model for
the NYC and Chicago metropolitan areas to compare quality markets, and find that a
compensating variation of approximately 20% of the annual income would be required
to induce the median household in Chicago to move to NYC. These methods are of interest to those concerned with making welfare evaluations of policies that affect housing
markets differently for households with different demographics.
Partial Identification of Preferences from a Dual-Market Sorting Equilibrium
Nicolai Kuminoff
Arizona State University
E.mail: [email protected]
Abstract
This paper develops a new structural estimator that uses the properties of a market equilibrium, together with information on households and their observed location choices, to
10
partially identify horizontally differentiated preferences for a vector of local public goods.
The estimation is consistent with equilibrium capitalization of local public goods and recognizes that job and house location choices are interrelated. By using set identification
to distinguish the identifying power of restrictions on the indirect utility function from
the identifying power of assumptions on the distribution of preferences for observed
and unobserved product characteristics, the estimator provides a new perspective on
characteristics-based models of the demand for a differentiated product. The estimator
is used to recover distributions of the marginal willingness-to-pay for improved air quality
in Northern California’s two largest population centers: the San Francisco and Sacramento
metropolitan areas. The average marginal willingness-to-pay increases by up to 110%
when job opportunities are included as a dimension of location choice.
Public transport and car ownership: evidence from the Copenhagen metropolitan area
Abstract
Ismir Mulalic
Technical University of Denmark
Ninette Pilegaard
Jan Rouwendal
VU University and Tinbergen Institute
Car ownership is an important issue in urban areas which is related to road congestion,
pollution and parking problems. Public transport is a substitute and potentially attractive as an alternative for the car in dense urban areas. This is especially true in European
countries like Denmark where cars and car fuel are heavily taxed. In this paper we develop
and estimate a model for the simultaneous choice of a residential area and car ownership.
We estimate the model on Danish register data for single and dual worker households.
The focus of attention is on the interaction between car ownership and the availability
of public transport per residential area. We pay special attention to accessibility of the
metro network which offers particularly high quality public transport.
Valuation of Non-Traded Amenities in a Dynamic Demand Model
Simon Hviid
Aarhus University
Christopher Timmins
Duke University
Rune Vejlin
Aarhus University
Abstract
Using unique population-wide Danish register data with precise measures of households’
wealth, income, and socio-economic status, we specify and estimate a dynamic structural
model of residential neighborhood demand. Our model includes moving costs, forward
looking behavior of households, and uncertainty about the evolution of neighborhood
attributes, wealth, income, house prices, and family composition. We estimate marginal
willingness to pay for non-traded neighborhood amenities with a focus on air pollution.
We allow household willingness to pay to vary in household characteristics and argue
that low wealth and low income households are borrowing constrained. Our application
finds that the dynamic approach adjusts for various biases relative to a static approach
and that the willingness to pay of households who are likely borrowing constrained are
much more sensitive to changes in wealth.
11
Hedonics: Rosen’s First Stage and Difference-in-Differences as “Sufficient
Statistics”
H. Spencer Banzhaf
Georgia State University, PERC, NBER
Abstract
For decades, economists have used the hedonic model to estimate demands for the implicit characteristics of differentiated commodities. The traditional cross-sectional approach
to hedonic estimation can recover marginal willingness to pay for characteristics, but has
faltered over a difficult endogeneity problem when attempting non-marginal welfare measures. I show that when marginal prices can be reliably estimated, and when panel data
on household demands is available, one can construct a second-order approximation to
non-marginal welfare measures using only the first-stage marginal prices. Moreover, even
when panel data on household demands are unavailable, the sufficient statistic approach
remains valid under a single crossing restriction using data from repeated cross sections of
product prices. More recently, economists have questioned the assumptions under which
one can identify these cross-sectional hedonic price functions, raising the possibility of
unobservables that are correlated with the characteristic of interest. To overcome this
problem, they have introduced difference-in-differences econometric models to identify
capitalization effects. Unfortunately, the interpretation of these effects has not been
clearly perceived in the literature. I additionally show these capitalization effects are the
”average direct unmediated effect” on prices of a change in characteristics, which can be
interpreted as a movement along the ex post hedonic price function. This effect is a lower
bound on Hicksian equivalent surplus.
Estimating the Marginal Willingness to Pay Function Without Instrumental
Variables
Christopher Timmins
Duke University
Kelly C. Bishop
Abstract
The hedonic model of Rosen (1974) has become a workhorse for valuing the characteristics
of differentiated products despite a number of well-documented econometric problems,
including a source of endogeneity in the second stage that has proven difficult to overcome. Here, we outline a simple, likelihood-based estimation approach for recovering the
marginal willingness-to-pay function in a parametric framework that avoids this endogeneity problem. In an application, we find that marginal willingness-to-pay to avoid violent
crime increases by nineteen cents with each additional incident per 100,000 residents.
Accounting for the slope of the marginal willingness-to-pay function has significant impacts on welfare analyses.
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List of participants
13
Name
Title
Organization
1
Alex Würtz
Head of Section
Municipality of Holstebro
2
Amy Binner
Senior Lecturer
University of Exeter
3
Anders Kamp Høst
Researcher
Kraks Fond - Institute for Urban Economic Research
4
Bettina Hauge
Researcher
Technical University of Denmark, Management Engineering
5
Bjarne Madsen
Professor
Centre for Regional and Tourism research
6
Bo Jellesmark Thorsen
Professor
University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics
7
Cathrine Ulla Jensen
Ph.D. candidate
8
Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall
Senior Researcher
9
Christian Jensen
Student
10
Christine Benna Skytt-Larsen
Assistant Professor
University of Copenhagen, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
11
Christopher Timmins
Professor
Duke University
12
Gabriel Pons Rotger
Senior Researcher
The Danish National Center for Social Research
13
Gunvor Christensen
Researcher
The Danish National Center for Social Research
14
Helle Nørgaard
Senior Researcher
Aalborg University Copenhagen, Danish Building Research Institute
15
Henning Christiansen
Head of Section
Statistics Denmark
16
Henry Overman
Professor
The London School of Economics and Political Science
17
Ismir Mulalic
Associate Professor
Technical University of Denmark, Department of Transport
18
Jack Zagha Hop
Ph.D. candidate
19
Jakob Bjældager
Consultant
Municipality of Ballerup
20
Jan Rouwendal
Professor
VU University Amsterdam
21
Jane Greve
Senior Researcher
Danish Institute for Local and Regional Government Research
22
Jens Peter Vesterager
Postdoc
23
John Clapp
Professor
University of Connecticut
24
Jos van Ommeren
Professor
VU University Amsterdam
25
Kalle Hansen
Ph.D. candidate
26
Kristian Bothe
Ph.D. candidate
University of Copenhagen - Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
27
Lars Nesheim
Senior Research Economist
University College London
28
Lars Pico Geerdsen
Director
29
Lars Winther
Professor
30
Lise Grand
Student
University of Copenhagen
31
Lise Pedersen
Urban Developer
Municipality of Copenhagen, Economy Management
32
Luis Quintero
Ph.D. candidate
Johns Hopkins University
33
Maja Busck
Urban Developer
Municipality of Copenhagen
34
Maria Börjesson
Associate Professor
KTH Royal Institute of Technology
35
Maria Juul Hansen
Ph.D. Student
University of Copenhagen
36
Marianne Källstrøm
Economist
Danish Economic Council
37
Marie Lundbo
PA and project manager
38
Mogens Fosgerau
Professor
39
Nathalie Picard
Associate Professor
40
Nicolai Kristensen
Professor MSO
Danish Institute for Local and Regional Government Research
41
Nicolai Kuminoff
Assistant Professor
42
Ninette Pilegaard
Senior Researcher
43
Pascal Mossay
Dr.
Newcastle University
44
Rune Vejlin
Associate Professor
Aarhus University, Department of Economics and Business Economics
45
Simon Juul Hviid
Ph.D. candidate
Aarhus University, Department of Economics and Business Economics
46
Spencer Banzhaf
Professor
Georgia State University
47
Stefan Mabit
Associate Professor
48
Søren Bøye Olsen
Associate Professor
49
Thomas Lundhede
Associate Professor
50
Thomas Sick Nielsen
Senior Researcher
51
Toke Emil Panduro
Postdoc
52
Trine Vinding
Urban
Developer
New
developments
Municipality
of Copenhagen,
Center for Urban Development
in the analysis of
residential
location choice
14
Country of workplace
E-mail
Denmark
[email protected]
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
USA
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
The Netherlands
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
USA
[email protected]
The Netherlands
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
USA
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Sweden
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
France
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
USA
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
United Kingdom
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
USA
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
[email protected]
Denmark
Notes
[email protected]
New
developments in the analysis of residential location choice
15

Program - Kraks Fonds Byforskning

Transcription

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