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Gas alternatives:
Small scale CHP, fuel cells
gas heat pumps
Japan
World renewables 2013
A multi-client study
By Rie Higuchi
September 2013
Gas alternatives:
Small scale CHP, fuel cells
and gas heat pumps
Japan
A multi-client study
Contract: Report 57207/3
Date:
September 2013
Issued by: BSRIA Limited
Old Bracknell Lane West,
Bracknell,
Berkshire RG12 7AH UK
Telephone: +44 (0)1344 465600
Fax:
+44 (0)1344 465626
E: [email protected] W: www.bsria.co.uk
Compiled by:
Approved by:
Name: Rie Higuchi
Name: Krystyna Dawson
All rights reserved. This document may not be reproduced, transmitted or redistributed in part or full without prior written
consent from a BSRIA Director.
© BSRIA
Page 3 of 47
Report 57207/3
HEAT PUMPS AND COGENERATION SYSTEMS
CONTENTS
CONTENTS
1
MARKET BACKGROUND OVERVIEW ........................................................................ 7
1.1
1.2
2
HEATING STOCK ...................................................................................................... 21
2.1
3
Type of CHP ..................................................................................................... 25
Electrical output ................................................................................................ 25
End user ........................................................................................................... 26
Product suppliers and developers ..................................................................... 27
Prices................................................................................................................ 28
Competitive factor ............................................................................................. 28
Metering requirements ...................................................................................... 28
Market drivers ................................................................................................... 28
Market threats ................................................................................................... 30
Sales trends and forecasts 2010 – 2018 ........................................................... 30
FUEL CELLS ............................................................................................................. 32
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7
Total market size .............................................................................................. 23
SMALL SCALE GAS CHP.......................................................................................... 25
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.10
6
Small scale chp................................................................................................. 22
Fuel cells .......................................................................................................... 22
Gas heat pumps ............................................................................................... 22
MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION ..................................................................... 23
4.1
5
Local heating practices ..................................................................................... 21
SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH .................................................................................... 22
3.1
3.2
3.3
4
Economy and construction .................................................................................. 7
Energy supply ................................................................................................... 10
Type of fuel cells ............................................................................................... 32
Electrical output ................................................................................................ 33
End user ........................................................................................................... 33
Prices................................................................................................................ 35
Competitve factor .............................................................................................. 36
Market drivers ................................................................................................... 36
Market threats ................................................................................................... 38
Sales trends and forecasts 2010 - 2018 ............................................................ 38
GAS AB/ADSORPTION HEAT PUMPS ..................................................................... 40
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
Market size & segmentation .............................................................................. 40
Output ............................................................................................................... 40
Application ........................................................................................................ 41
End user ........................................................................................................... 42
8
OTHER GAS ALTERNATIVE SYSTEMS ................................................................... 44
9
ROUTES TO THE MARKET ...................................................................................... 45
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
© BSRIA
Utilities .............................................................................................................. 45
Housing developers / social housing ................................................................. 46
Wholesaler and installers .................................................................................. 47
Consumer awareness / attitude......................................................................... 47
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CONTENTS
TABLES
Table 1 Background data economy and construction, 2010-2014 ......................................... 7
Table 2 Foreign exchange trend, 2008-2012 ......................................................................... 9
Table 3 Number of residential dwelling starts per year, 2009-2013 ..................................... 10
Table 4 Number of non-residential building starts per year, 2009-2012 ............................... 10
Table 5 The categories of electricity suppliers ..................................................................... 17
Table 6 Average price of city gas (fiscal year), 2009-2012 .................................................. 19
Table 7 Electricity fare (sample) per 1kWh, 2008-2012 ....................................................... 20
Table 8 Basic electricity fare, influence by nuclear power plant ........................................... 20
Table 9 Volume and value of the gas alternative systems, 2011 and 2012E ....................... 23
Table 10 Small scale gas CHP by type of engine, 2011 and 2012E .................................... 25
Table 11 Small scale gas CHP by electrical output, 2011 and 2012E .................................. 25
Table 12 Small scale gas CHP by end user segment, volume, 2011 and 2012E ................. 26
Table 13 Manufacturers / suppliers of small scale gas CHP to the market, 2011 and
2012E........................................................................................................................... 27
Table 14 End user price of the most typical type of system, 2012E ..................................... 28
Table 15 Small-scale CHP systems, historical trend and forecasts, units, 2010-2018 ......... 31
Table 16 Fuel cells by type, 2011 and 2012E ...................................................................... 32
Table 17 Fuel cells by electrical output, 2011 and 2012E .................................................... 33
Table 18 Fuel cells by end user, 2011 and 2012E ............................................................... 33
Table 19 Manufacturers/suppliers of fuel cells to the market, 2012E ................................... 35
Table 22 Fuel cells, historical trend and forecasts, units, 2010-2018 ................................... 39
Table 23 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by type, 2011 and 2012e ..................................... 40
Table 24 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by thermal output, 2011 and 2012E ..................... 40
Table 25 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by application, 2012E .......................................... 41
Table 26 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by end user, 2012E ............................................. 42
Table 27 Top 4 gas suppliers in Japan, turnover in 2012 and coverage areas .................... 45
Table 28 Top 3 housing developers in Japan, turnover in 2012 and coverage areas........... 46
FIGURES
Figure 1 Map of Japan........................................................................................................... 7
Figure 2 Foreign exchange trend, 2008-2012 ........................................................................ 9
Figure 3 Primary energy supply by source, 2009 and 2010 ................................................. 11
Figure 4 City gas annual sales and the number of customers, 2008-2012 ........................... 13
Figure 5 LP gas annual sales, fiscal year, 2007-2012 ......................................................... 14
Figure 6 LP gas annual sales, fiscal year, 2007-2012 ......................................................... 14
Figure 7 Map of the Japanese utilities ................................................................................. 15
Figure 8 Share by major 10 electricity suppliers (customer number base), March 2011 ...... 16
Figure 9 The structure of electricity network ........................................................................ 16
Figure 10 Electric power output composition by source ....................................................... 18
Figure 11 Gas alternative systems by type, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E ...................... 24
Figure 12 Small scale gas CHP by type, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E........................... 25
Figure 13 Small scale gas CHP by electrical output, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E ........ 26
Figure 14 Small scale gas CHP by end user, volume, 2011 and 2012E .............................. 27
Figure 15 Fuel cells by type, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E ............................................. 32
Figure 16 Fuel cells by electrical output, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E ........................... 33
Figure 17 Fuel cells by end user, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E ...................................... 34
Figure 18 Fuel cells by regions, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E ........................................ 34
© BSRIA
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CONTENTS
Figure 19 Gas heat pumps by type, volume (units), 2011 and 2012e .................................. 40
Figure 20 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by thermal output, volume (units), 2011 and
2012e ........................................................................................................................... 41
Figure 21 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by application, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E . 42
Figure 22 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by end user, volume (units), 2011 and 2012E .... 43
Figure 23 Typical distribution channel structure for fuel cells ............................................... 45
© BSRIA
Page 6 of 47
Report 57207/3
Gas alternatives:
Heat pumps and
cogeneration systems
The Netherlands
World renewables 2010
A multi client study
By Aline Breslauer
January 2011
Gas alternatives:
Heat pumps and
cogeneration systems
The Netherlands
A multi client study
Contract:
Report 54321/3
Date:
January 2011
Issued by: BSRIA Limited
Old Bracknell Lane West,
Bracknell,
Berkshire RG12 7AH UK
Telephone: +44 (0)1344 465600
Fax:
+44 (0)1344 465626
E: [email protected] W: www.bsria.co.uk
Compiled by:
Approved by:
Name: Aline Breslauer
Name: Krystyna Dawson
This report must not be reproduced except in full without the written approval of an executive director of BSRIA. It is only
intended to be used within the context described in the text.
© BSRIA
Page 3 of 40
Report 54321/3
CONTENTS
CONTENTS
1 MARKET BACKGROUND OVERVIEW ........................................................................................ 6 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2 MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION...................................................................................... 14 2.1 3 Type of micro CHP ...........................................................................................................16 Electrical output ................................................................................................................17 End user ...........................................................................................................................18 Product suppliers and developers ....................................................................................20 Prices ................................................................................................................................21 FUEL CELLS............................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 5 Total market size ..............................................................................................................14 MICRO CHP ................................................................................................................................ 16 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4 Economy and construction .................................................................................................6 Energy supply .....................................................................................................................9 Heating stock ....................................................................................................................12 Local heating practices .....................................................................................................12 Type of fuel cells ...............................................................................................................22 Electrical output ................................................................................................................22 End user ...........................................................................................................................23 Product suppliers and developers ....................................................................................23 Prices ................................................................................................................................25 GAS HEAT PUMPS .................................................................................................................... 26 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Market size & segmentation .............................................................................................26 Output ...............................................................................................................................27 End user ...........................................................................................................................28 Product suppliers and developers ....................................................................................29 Prices ................................................................................................................................30 6 OTHER COGENERATION SYSTEMS ....................................................................................... 31 7 MARKET DRIVERS .................................................................................................................... 32 7.1 7.2 8 ROUTES TO THE MARKET ....................................................................................................... 37 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 9 Energy policy and regulations ..........................................................................................32 INcentives .........................................................................................................................34 Utilities ..............................................................................................................................37 Housing developers / social housing ................................................................................37 Wholesaler and Installers .................................................................................................37 Consumer awareness / attitude ........................................................................................38 TRENDS AND FORECASTS ...................................................................................................... 39 © BSRIA
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CONTENTS
TABLES
Table 1 Background data economy and construction, 2006-2010 .......................................................... 6 Table 2 Housing completions, ‘000 dwellings, 2007-2013 (e)................................................................. 8 Table 3 Comparison of domestic gas prices, November 2009 ............................................................. 11 Table 4 Comparison of domestic electricity prices, November 2009 .................................................... 12 Table 5 The housing park by type of heating product, 2008 ................................................................. 12 Table 6 Volume and value of the gas alternative systems, 2009 and 2010E ....................................... 14 Table 7 Micro CHP by type, 2009 and 2010E ....................................................................................... 17 Table 8 Micro CHP by electrical output, 2009 and 2010E .................................................................... 18 Table 9 Micro CHP by end user, 2009 and 2010E ................................................................................ 18 Table 10 Micro CHP by end application, 2009 and 2010E ................................................................... 19 Table 11 Manufacturers / suppliers of micro CHP to the market, 2005-2010 ....................................... 21 Table 12 Manufacturers / suppliers of fuel cells to the market, 2005-2010 .......................................... 25 Table 13 Indications on the cost of various fuel cell types .................................................................... 25 Table 14 Gas heat pumps by type, 2009 and 2010E ............................................................................ 26 Table 15 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by thermal output, 2009 and 2010E..................................... 27 Table 16 Gas engine heat pumps by thermal output, 2009 and 2010E................................................ 27 Table 17 Gas Ab/adsorption heat pumps by end user, 2009 and 2010E ............................................. 28 Table 18 Gas engine heat pumps by end user, 2009 and 2010E ......................................................... 29 Table 19 Manufacturers / suppliers of gas heat pumps to the market, 2005-2010 ............................... 30 Table 20 Trends and forecast for the gas alternative systems, 2009-2014 .......................................... 40 FIGURES
Figure 1 Map of the Netherlands ............................................................................................................. 6 Figure 2 Evolution of dwellings completed by region, 2007-2009 ........................................................... 9 Figure 3 List of energy suppliers on the Dutch market.......................................................................... 10 Figure 4 Repartition of district heating in the Netherlands .................................................................... 13 Figure 5 Gas alternative systems by type, volume (units), 2009 .......................................................... 15 Figure 6 Gas engine micro CHP by type, volume (units), 2009 ............................................................ 17 Figure 7 Micro CHP by electrical output, volume (units), 2009 ............................................................. 18 Figure 8 Micro CHP by end user, volume (units), 2009 ........................................................................ 19 Figure 9 Micro CHP by end application, volume (units), 2009 .............................................................. 19 Figure 10 Gas heat pumps by type, volume (units), 2009 .................................................................... 26 Figure 11 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by thermal output, volume (units), 2009 ............................. 27 Figure 12 Gas engine heat pumps by thermal output, volume (units), 2009 ........................................ 28 Figure 13 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by end user, volume (units), 2009 ...................................... 28 Figure 14 Gas engine heat pumps by end user, volume (units), 2009 ................................................. 29 Figure 15 Homes with an energy label, 31 December 2009 ................................................................. 33 Figure 16 Trend and forecast of the gas alternative systems, volume (units), 2009-2014 ................... 40 © BSRIA
Page 5 of 40
Report 54321/3
1
THE NETHERLANDS
MARKET BACKGROUND OVERVIEW
Figure 1 Map of the Netherlands
Source: www.cia.gov
1.1
ECONOMY AND CONSTRUCTION
Table 1 Background data economy and construction, 2006-2010
Indicator
Population
GDP change
- change
Units
Million
€ bn
%
2008
16.5
595.2
2.0
1.6
2009
16.6
572.0
-3.9
2.5
2010(e)
16.6
582.3
1.8
1.3
2011 (f)
16.7
591.0
1.5
1.5
2012 (f)
16.7
601.7
1.8
1.5
3.9
75.4
7.3
78.9
34.5
23.8
17.1
4.9
71.7
7.4
83.0
31.6
22.4
16.7
5.5
65.0
7.4
56.0
28.2
20.0
17.7
5.5
65.6
7.5
64.0
29.2
19.7
16.7
5.3
67.2
7.5
65.0
30.1
20.2
16.9
Inflation
%
Unemployment
%
Construction output
EUR € bn
Number of households
Million
New dwellings (completions)
Thousands
Residential
EUR € bn
Non-residential
EUR € bn
Civil Engineering
EUR € bn
Source: Euro Construct/Indexmundi/OECD/CIA factbook
1.1.1
Population and climate
The Kingdom of the Netherlands has a land area of 33,900 sq km (41,500 sq. km total area), over 25%
of which is below sea level. The country has a high population density, in average over 480 people per
sq km of land area but in the two major Western provinces, North Holland and South Holland
population densities are even higher.
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
In 2009, the total population was estimated at 16.6 million showing only minimal growth rates, in line
with the tendency of previous years.
The Netherlands lies between the latitudes of 51°N and 54°N. The country has a temperate, maritime
climate with relatively cool summers and mild winters. The heating season lasts from October until
June. The average outside temperature during the heating season is 4.8°C. This results in an average of
around 3,200 degree-days per heating season (at 18°C internal temperature).
The Netherlands is divided into twelve administrative regions, called provinces, each under a
Governor, who is called Commissaris van de Koningin (Commissioner of the Queen), except for the
province Limburg where the commissioner is called Gouverneur (Governor). All provinces are
divided into municipalities (gemeenten), 431 in total as per 1 January 2010.
1.1.2
Economy
The Dutch economy is recovering very slowly from the sharp downturn that began in the second half
of 2008. The recession reached its pick in early 2009. In the first and second quarter of that year,
Dutch GDP showed a decline of 4.5 and 5.5% respectively, when measured on annual basis. In the
subsequent quarters, the decrease of economic activity gradually levelled off due mostly to the
implementation of stimulation programmes by the central government and local authorities. During
the whole 2009 Dutch GDP has recorded a decrease by 3.9% towards previous year.
In 2010 the economy is expected to recover and a growth of 1.8% is predicted for the total year.
Increasing exports have driven the Dutch economy in the first half of the year. The growth involved
the exports of Dutch manufactured goods as well as re-exports. The exports of Dutch manufactured
goods saw a 10 percent growth rate as a result of large demand abroad for Dutch chemical, metal and
electrical engineering products.
Year-on-year investments were down by 5 percent in the second quarter of 2010. Investments in
commercial real estate, houses, and civil engineering works were down considerably. However,
investments in machinery and motor vehicles turned around and started showing positive growth
compared to a year ago. Investments in computers continued to grow.
Domestic private consumption is forecast to grow only by 0.5% in 2010. This was accounted for by
higher gas prices that were pushed up by the cold weather and the increasing demand of new cars. But
consumer confidence is still very law due to the uncertain political and financial situation.
Manufacturing industry has recorded an 8-percent growth in the second quarter of 2010. Trade and
transport benefited and grew by 7 and 6 percent respectively.
The unemployment in the Netherlands has grown since 2008 when it has reached the historic low of
3.8% and is expected to reach 5.5% in 2010.
1.1.3
Construction
In 2009 the total construction output went down by 5% and in 2010, a decrease of 8% is expected,
followed by stagnation in 2011. Only in 2012 the production is expected to start growing again.
In 2009 and 2010 the construction sector is forecast to lose 12.5% of the production value that was
reached in 2008 and in terms of labour capacity 40,000 jobs are expected to be cut over the period
2009-2011.
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
Residential construction has contributed mostly to the decline of the building industry in 2010. With
negative growth rates of more than 16% for new construction and 5% for renovation and maintenance,
this sector outbids non-residential construction amply. The latter sector is expected to shrink by 15.5%
(new construction) and 2.0% (renovation and maintenance) respectively. Within the sector of new
non-residential construction, the production of industrial buildings, commercial buildings, office
buildings and storage buildings, will suffer heaviest losses. The activities in residential construction
are forecast to recover in 2011 and 2012, while for new non-residential construction, 2011 will still be
a year of losses. Especially in the sub-sector of office buildings, new production is expected to fall
towards a dramatically low level. In non-residential construction, only the production of buildings for
health care is expected to keep on growing throughout the forecast period.
According to Euroconstruct, in 2011 the sector is thought to recover somewhat and a 2.6% is
considered feasible, whereas activities in the field of renovation and maintenance are to stabilize. In
2012 output growth accelerates further and a recovery of about 5% is likely.
In the long run, the demand for residential buildings is to a large extent determined by the
development of the number of households. For the period 2006-2015 the average yearly addition to the
housing stock, needed to be able to cope with the demand resulting from the demographic trend, can
be calculated at 50,000 dwellings. For the period 2015-2020 this number is calculated at 43,000
dwellings.
Besides the demand resulting from the need of expanding the housing stock, there is a certain need to
replace obsolete or lost houses. Over the last decade, the number of dwellings that were demolished or
otherwise put out of use, very gradually increased to a level of 25,000 per year. This number is
expected to rise further in the coming years. Added together (i.e. the number of required dwellings
resulting from demographic growth as well as from replacement needs) and adjusted for additions to
the housing stock from other sources (the modification of offices, splitting up of houses etc.) the
structurally needed annual level of dwellings to be built now can be estimated at 65,000-70,000. As a
consequence of the expected decline of new residential construction, the number of completions now
falls under the level that is needed to meet the structural demand. After 2012, the number of new
dwellings is expected to rise gradually above the structural necessary level. This is necessary to fill the
gap, which arose in the years behind.
1.1.4
New house building
Table 2 Housing completions, ‘000 dwellings, 2007-2013 (e)
2007
2008
2009
2010(e)
2011(f)
2012(f)
2013(f)
1+2 family dwellings
53.2
44.3
33.0
48.0
50.0
52.0
54.0
Flats
34.0
28.3
21.5
30.0
32.5
35.0
37.5
Total
87.2
72.6
54.5
78.0
82.5
87.0
91.5
48.1
48.3
38.0
38.5
39.5
40.5
42.0
Flats
30.8
34.7
24.0
25.0
25.0
26.0
28.0
Total
78.9
83.0
62.0
63.5
64.5
66.5
70.0
7.105
7.175
7.226
7.274
7.324
7.374
7.444
Building Permits (thousands dwellings)
Housing Completions (thousands dwellings)
Housing Stock
Housing Stock (Mln dwellings)
Source: Euroconstruct
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
Figure 2 Evolution of dwellings completed by region, 2007-2009
Source: www.cbs.nl
1.2
ENERGY SUPPLY
1.2.1
Overview
The Netherlands, which accounts for approximately half of the European primary energy supply, is by
far the most gas-intensive country in Europe. Most other European countries have only limited
volumes of their own natural gas, almost all of which is used for domestic consumption, and
consequently have to import large amount of gas. The Netherlands is the largest exporter of gas in the
EU supplying approximately 80 billion m3 a year. Until quite recently, the United Kingdom was also a
major exporter, but the depletion of its offshore fields has forced the country to partly relay on imports
as well.
The Netherlands does not dependent on imported gas. It is self-sufficient but also a major energy
consumer and a net importer of energy.
During the last decade, much of the Netherlands switched over wholesale to gas. Two major
adjustments were needed to make this happen: development of the network of gas mains and
secondary distribution lines as well as replacement of domestic oil and coal-burning boilers by gas
boilers and central heating systems. Natural gas was accepted almost overnight as a sign of the new
age of prosperity. Within about 20 years, the Netherlands became the world’s biggest consumer of
natural gas, with 98% coverage in the domestic sector and approximately 50% of the primary energy
supply. No other country in the world even approaches this level of coverage.
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
The liberalization of the gas market
The decision of the European Union to liberalize the natural gas market brought a new challenge for
the member states: a gradual conversion of European guidelines into national law. The goal was to
create an open, competitive and more efficient European market. For the Netherlands this meant
breaking up the Gasunie monopoly. The natural gas network now resides under infrastructure
company Gasunie (Gas Transport Services) but an independent supply company GasTerra has been
put in charge of all commercial activities. Since 2002, the major industries have been free to choose
other suppliers e.g. Distrigas. Trade fairs are organized where the interested parties can conclude gas
contracts anonymously via the exchange (APX, Zeebrugge, TTF).
It is worth noticing that TTF (Title Transfer Facility) is the trade platform for GTS (Gas Transport
Services B.V, a 100% daughter of gas infrastructure company Gasunie.
The liberalization of the European natural gas market meant a change intended to create free
competition. Liberalization has proceeded gradually starting with the directive of 22 June 1998. As the
initial situation was different in every EU member state, they all followed a different path to the
liberalisation of the gas market. In case of the Netherlands, the end to the Gasunie monopoly was a
decisive breakthrough.
Ever since the discovery of the natural gas field at Slochteren, Groningen, the state-owned monopoly
Gasunie has administered the supply of gas. Even on a European level, Gasunie was a major player
covering some 20% of European demand. For a long time the upcoming liberalization met with fierce
opposition, but eventually Gasunie, the Dutch government and oil companies Shell and Exxon decided
to divide the company into two separate entities. Liberalization should guarantee improved quality,
service and relatively lower costs for the customer. This means that, in order to keep their customers,
suppliers will have to make an extra effort.
Since 1 January 2002, all large-scale consumers (i.e. those who consume over 170,000 m³ gas) have
been free to choose their own gas supplier. Energy regulator DTe considers the bargaining position of
these large-scale consumers as sufficiently strong and no longer regulates tariffs in this market
segment.
Since 1 July 2004, small consumers are also free to choose a supplier. Every customer consuming less
than 170,000 m³ falls under the 'small consumer' category. Energy regulator DTe ensures that energy
suppliers respect the rules, thereby protecting the consumers.
Following the liberalisation of the energy market new companies have been supplying electricity and
gas on the Dutch market.
Figure 3 List of energy suppliers on the Dutch market
Source: BSRIA on various sources
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
Although the liberalization of the energy market was supposed to increase competitiveness and reduce
prices few consumers have switched their energy supplier or their form of contract. Indeed, it is
reported that the market is not transparent enough and consumers are often not keen on changing
suppliers, as they fear something may go wrong with their bill.
1.2.2
Residential gas supply
In the Netherlands, 99% of housing is within the natural gas supply area and 98% of dwellings are
connected to the gas network.
The price of natural gas in the Netherlands is slightly below the EU average of €0.060 per kWh gas.
Table 3 Comparison of domestic gas prices, November 2009
€ per kWh gas
Consumption: 15,000 kWh/year (1,380 m3 of
gas)
€ per kWh gas
Consumption: 30,000 kWh/year (2,760 m3 of gas)
Average amount in euro per one kilowatt-hour of
gas for domestic consumers.
Average amount in euro per one kilowatt-hour of gas for
domestic consumers.
Incl. energy taxes & VAT.
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Luxembourg
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Source: www.enerdata.eu
0.061
0.117
0.068
0.085
0.061
0.047
0.041
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Luxembourg
Netherlands
United Kingdom
0.044
0.105
0.051
0.066
0.04
0.046
0.04
The Dutch customers have seen their electricity and gas bills increased significantly over the last three
years despite the fact that the market has been liberalized.
1.2.3
Residential electricity supply
About 90% of electricity produced in the Netherlands is generated by fossil fuels combustion, mainly
natural gas (60%). Cogeneration plants generate roughly 50% of electricity. Although renewable
energy sources have being developed and implemented, only a small portion of energy (7.9%) is
supplied this way. According to 2008 Eurostat data, 5.5% of Dutch electricity came from biomass,
2.3% from wind farms and 0.1% from hydro stations.
As a result of the liberalization of the energy market in July 2004 various utility companies are
offering electricity supplies to the end user. Tariffs vary from one company to another and many offer
a "green" option, Ecostroom, where the power is sourced from environmentally sound areas or drawn
from clean renewable sources such as sun, sea and wind.
Electricity prices are high in the Netherlands. Since 1991 Dutch electricity prices have more than
doubled, while prices in the other European state members have risen by one fifth on the average. Half
of the Dutch price increase has been a result of a higher basic price, the other half has been caused by
higher levies and VAT. Based on www.energy.eu data, domestic electricity price was €0.241/kWh in
the Netherlands in November 2009. It is Europe’s third most expensive price after Denmark and Italy
(respectively €0.268/kWh and €0.260/kWh).
The price for electricity is likely to increase continually as power is mainly gas generated in the
Netherlands.
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
Table 4 Comparison of domestic electricity prices, November 2009
€ per kWh electricity
€ per kWh electricity
Consumption: 3500 kWh/year
Consumption: 7500 kWh/year
(30% during night time)
(30% during night time)
electricity for domestic consumers.
electricity for domestic consumers.
Belgium
0.172
Belgium
0.152
Denmark
0.268
Denmark
0.232
France
0.138
France
0.117
Germany
0.211
Germany
0.204
Luxembourg
0.189
Luxembourg
0.182
Netherlands
0.241
Netherlands
0.24
United Kingdom
Source: www.enerdata.eu
0.138
United Kingdom
1.2
0.128
HEATING STOCK
Table 5 The housing park by type of heating product, 2008
Type of heating
‘000 dwellings
%
District heating (> 600 kW)
0.292
4.0%
Collective heating (60-600 kW)
0.314
4.3%
Individual central heating gas
5.928
81.2%
Individual central heating oil
0.007
0.1%
Individual central heating solid fuel
0.022
0.3%
Individual central heating others
0.029
0.4%
Total individual central heating
5.986
82.0%
Room heating / other heating
0.708
9.7%
No heating
0.000
0.0%
7.300
100.0%
Total
Source: BSRIA based on industry sources
1.3
LOCAL HEATING PRACTICES
The large majority of dwellings in the Netherlands have individual central heating systems, mainly
natural gas fired (82%). This is due to the big amount of national natural gas resources on one hand
and to the increasing rate of ownership (56.2% in 2008) on the other hand, which is related to
mortgage interest tax relief. The most common form of heating in the Netherlands is the gas fired
boiler system. Gas “combi” boilers are usually the source of both heating and sanitary hot water.
Indeed consumers are becoming more demanding and higher levels of comfort are required, hence the
constant improvement of heating systems and the need for increased hot water supply.
Regarding heat distribution, steel panel radiators are standard in the Netherlands. Underfloor heating
systems have shown some penetration in this market, especially in the new build sector following the
penetration of the heat pump based systems to the market.
District heating and cooling (DHC) network have smaller role in the supply of heating and cooling to
the households. At present about 4% of all dwellings are connected to a district heating network in the
Netherlands.
© BSRIA
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Figure 4 Repartition of district heating in the Netherlands
Source: www.nuon.nl
Combined heat and power plants
The use of industrial combined heat and power (CHP) in energy supply is high in the Netherlands.
About 20% of Dutch industrial heat demand is supplied by cogeneration. In the paper industry the
share of CHP heat is 60%; in the chemical industry - in absolute terms the most important CHP sector
- the share is 30%.
In 2006, 29% of the Netherlands’ total electricity production came from CHP and district heating
plants. Rapid CHP growth recorded in the 1990s came to an end after the liberalisation of the
electricity and gas markets. Today, the only area of growth is in the agricultural sector, where CHP is
widely used at greenhouses. However, further growth of industrial CHP might happen in the future
with improved market conditions, a more flexible approach towards CHP operation in a liberalised
market and more stringent CO2 policies.
In 2006, the total installed CHP/DH electrical equivalent capacity was almost 8.6 gigawatts
(GWe). Gas-fired combined cycle engines are the dominant technology. The majority of the steam
turbine capacity includes coal-fired district heating plants, whereas internal combustion engines are
mainly found in greenhouses, services and the public sector. Currently, agriculture is the only sector
where CHP capacity is still rapidly growing.
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
2.1
TOTAL MARKET SIZE
Under the scope of this study BSRIA is presenting the evolution of gas alternative technologies in the
Dutch market over 2009 and 2010 and possible future development of the market. Systems covered in
this report are:
•
•
•
small scale cogeneration unit (CHP) up to 10kW of electrical output,
stationary fuel cell micro CHP up to 10kWe,
gas heat pumps: gas engine and gas ab/adsorption heat pumps– up to 100kW thermal capacity,
Even though mass commercialisation of small scale cogeneration units has not been achieved by many
micro CHP manufacturers yet a number of companies are already active on the market with Baxi
Senertec and WhisperGen being the frontrunners in the technology introduction so far. The market
volume is estimated to reach 240 units sold by the end of 2010, almost double the size of previous
year’s sales.
The implementation of financial incentives for units specially designed for domestic sector clearly
helps lowering initial investment costs and is said to have pushed the market as housing associations
largely applied for the grants. High price remains however the major barrier for the more dynamic
development of the CHP boiler market. Even when subsidised, the end user price is around three times
the cost of a conventional gas condensing boiler. Manufacturers and suppliers stress the importance
that the government must carry on supporting investment in the technology in order to achieve the
Kyoto objectives and draw more people’s attention.
On the other hand, it is reported that manufacturers have been facing bottlenecks in production which
does not allow them to meet the demand for the moment.
The market for commercial small scale CHP units has faced harsh economic climate in 2009. Sales
level remained low as new construction in the commercial and tertiary sector remained sluggish due to
uncertainty of investors. By volume the market counted about 50 units sold that year and the number is
foreseen to drop in 2010.
Fuel cell micro CHP units are not yet commercially available in the Netherlands but heating
manufacturers and utilities have conducted research in that field. The technology is expected to be
launched by 2012 at the earliest.
Table 6 Volume and value of the gas alternative systems, 2009 and 2010E
2009
Volume
Micro CHP
Fuel Cells
Gas Ab/Adsorption Heat Pumps
Gas Engine Heat Pumps
Other Cogeneration Systems
Total
Source: BSRIA
© BSRIA
2010 E
Euros
US $
(thousand) (thousand)
120
1.9
2.7
Volume
Euros
US $
(thousand) (thousand)
235
3.5
4.9
0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
110
1.1
1.5
260
2.6
3.6
60
1.1
1.5
65
1.2
1.6
0
0.0
0.0
0
0.0
0.0
290
4.1
5.7
560
7.3
10.1
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Figure 5 Gas alternative systems by type, volume (units), 2009
Gas Ab/ Adsorption Heat Pumps 110 units
Gas Engine Heat Pumps 60 units
Micro CHP 120 units
Source: BSRIA
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
MICRO CHP
3.1
TYPE OF MICRO CHP
Manufacturers and building industry experts in the Netherlands distinguish two different types of
small scale cogeneration units depending on the electrical output of units.
The smaller type of cogeneration unit is called micro CHP – micro warmtekrachtkoppeling (micro
WKK) in Dutch. It includes units with an electrical output up to 4.9kW. Nevertheless, in practice,
most units currently available in this range on the Dutch market have usually a power output of 1kWe.
Whispergen has been the forerunner in this market segment by introducing the MK5 unit into the
Dutch market in 2005. MK5 is a 1kWe floor standing unit based on Stirling Engine technology.
In 2010 BDR Thermea has launched two models of Stirling engine based residential units, one called
Ecogen HRe ketel by Baxi in Q1 2010 and a few months later an Evita unit from its sister company
Remeha. Although both units are based on the Stirling engine technology and are 1kWe wall-hung
units (roughly 140kg weight), eVita unit is able to provide both heating and sanitary hot water and has
capacity of modulating both thermal and electric output between 3.5kW – 5.5kW thermal and 750 –
1kW electric output. Ecogen HReketel from Baxi is a heating only unit.
Another micro CHP model available on the Dutch market since 2009 is EcoPower, a 4.7kWe floor
standing unit, developed by Vaillant in Germany and sold via AWB in the Netherlands. It has however
been reported that this unit has been withdrawn from of the Dutch market early 2010 due to the lack of
interest from end users.
Italian heating manufacturer Ariston who worked in collaboration with Enatech, Bosch and the
Japanese engine manufacturer Rinnai has also developed a residential floor standing unit with Stirling
Engine. The CHP1 unit from Ariston entered the field trial stage at end of 2009.
Most of the units mentioned above are fuelled by natural gas. Most of the micro CHP boilers can also
run on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) but even though their performance is slightly more efficient (by
3-4%) when LPG fuelled, high combustible price does not make the LPG models very profitable and
attractive to domestic end-users. The share of LPG micro CHP boilers is estimated to be negligible on
the Dutch market in 2010.
The second type of small scale CHP covered by this study includes part of the segment that industry
experts classify as mini CHP. In comparison to the micro CHP, mini CHP units have an electrical
output from 5 kW to several hundreds of kW. Our study only takes into consideration units with
output up to 10kWe and within this capacity only one model is currently available on the Dutch
market – the SenerTec Dachs unit – manufactured in Germany and based on internal combustion
engine technology. With a power output of 5.5kWe and 12.5kW thermal energy this product is
designed to supply heat and power to light commercial and tertiary buildings such as business units,
hotels and blocks of flats and to a lesser extent large single houses with swimming pools.
© BSRIA
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Table 7 Micro CHP by type, 2009 and 2010E
2009
2010E
units
%
units
%
Internal Combustion Engines (ICE)
71
59.0%
73
31.0%
Stirling Engines (SE)
49
41.0%
162
69.0%
Organic Rankine Engines (RE)
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
Others
0
0.0%
0
0.0%
120
100.0%
235
100.0%
Total
Source: BSRIA
Figure 6 Gas engine micro CHP by type, volume (units), 2009
Stirling Engines (SE) 49 units
Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) 71 units
Source: BSRIA
3.2
ELECTRICAL OUTPUT
In 2009 the small scale CHP market in the Netherlands has been dominated by larger units, with an
output over 5kWe. It was due to the fact that the first small scale CHP products that became
commercially available on the Dutch market in 2005-2006, were SenerTec Dachs units. These ICE
based products, with outputs of 5.5kWe were suitable for light commercial installations where they
have proven to be reliable and cost efficient and have got better established on the market than smaller
Whispergen units, introduced only slightly later, that have however been suffering from low
confidence by residential end user and high initial investment costs.
In 2010 however the technology has become better known and more manufacturers have entered the
residential micro CHP market. Sales of small scale CHP units have been supported by subsidy
schemes and residential units with an output of 1kWe have clearly taken advantage of them. As a
result the share of 1kWe units has increased significantly in 2010 and with more suppliers expected to
enter this market in the foreseeable future, this trend is likely to remain in place in the years to come.
Despite growing penetration the overall 1kWe market has remained small in 2009 and 2010.
© BSRIA
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Table 8 Micro CHP by electrical output, 2009 and 2010E
2009
units
49
0
0
71
0 - 1kW
1.1 - 2kW
2.1 - 3kW
3.1 - 10kW
Total
Source: BSRIA
120
%
41.0%
0.0%
0.0%
59.0%
100.0%
2010E
units
162
0
0
73
235
%
69.0%
0.0%
0.0%
31.0%
100.0%
Figure 7 Micro CHP by electrical output, volume (units), 2009
0 ‐ 1kW 49 units
3.1 – 10kW 71 units
Source: BSRIA
3.3
END USER
The majority of micro CHP boilers have been installed in the refurbishment segment. Due to their
characteristics residential Micro CHP units are more suitable for existing houses, where heating load is
higher due to low level of insulation. This type of installations have also been supported by the
subsidies that have been allocated for micro CHP boilers installed in existing buildings since
September 2008.
As new residential buildings become increasingly better insulated, their heating demand is falling and
micro CHP units that produce relatively high amount of heat per every kW of electricity are not
considered as a suitable option for this segment.
In the new build mostly commercial premises have been installing micro CHP units as they can help
meeting stricter building regulations (see chapter 7.1 Building Regulation) in energy efficiency and
their heat/power ratio can be balanced in an economically more efficient way.
Table 9 Micro CHP by end user, 2009 and 2010E
New build
Refurbishment
Total
Source: BSRIA
© BSRIA
2009
units
48
72
120
Page 18 of 40
%
40.0%
60.0%
100.0%
2010E
units
47
188
235
%
20.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Report 54321/3
THE NETHERLANDS
Figure 8 Micro CHP by end user, volume (units), 2009
Refurbish‐
ment 72 units
New build 48 units
Source: BSRIA
The majority of the units sold in 2009 were installed in commercial and tertiary sectors with small
business units, hotels, hospitals, care homes and leisure centres being the most common applications.
In 2010 however the market has shifted towards 1 + 2 family houses applications as more small
domestic units have become available.
Government subsidies for this type of product have also added to the increase in residential
applications. The National Energy Agency reports that numbers of grants were allocated to housing
associations in 2010.
Table 10 Micro CHP by end application, 2009 and 2010E
2009
Multi dwellings
Non-residential
Total
Source: BSRIA
2010E
units
%
units
%
49
24
47
41.0%
20.0%
39.0%
162
24
49
69.0%
10.0%
21.0%
120
100.0%
235
100.0%
Figure 9 Micro CHP by end application, volume (units), 2009
Residential 73 units
Commercial 47 units
Source: BSRIA
© BSRIA
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3.4
PRODUCT SUPPLIERS AND DEVELOPERS
Up to 2009 only a couple of companies supplied small scale cogeneration units in the Dutch market.
These were ProQuest and Gelre Flevo both distributors of Baxi SenerTec’s Dachs units produced in
Germany. The other one was the Magic Boiler Company who distributes WhisperGen’s residential
unit since 2005. WhisperGen unit is manufactured by WhisperTech Ltd, a subsidiary of the New
Zealand company Meridian Energy Ltd. It is part of the Efficient Home Energy SL (or EHE) a joint
venture with the Mondragón Corporation, Spanish manufacturer of white good products, holding 60%
of the capital through its Components Division, Fagor Electrodomésticos, Mondragón Inversiones and
Mondragón Innovación. Whisper Tech Limited holds the remaining 40%. EHE is based in the Basque
region of in Spain, and develop, manufacture and distribute the 1kWe Stirling engine based unit for
the EU market. EHE is the sole licensee and manufacturer of the WhisperGen® micro CHP system.
In the last quarter of 2009 the first Baxi’s Ecogen 1kWe micro CHP became available on the Dutch
market and Remeha has introduced its 1kWe Evita unit in the second quarter of 2010.
Baxi and Remeha (both sister companies within BDR Thermea) are part of the same consortium:
MEC-Microgen Engine Corporation Holding BV, a UK company headquartered in the Netherlands,
created by BDR Thermea, Viessmann, Vaillant, and Sunpower. Each member of the consortium is
expected to market their own version of a micro CHP unit based on the same MEC Stirling engine.
The engines have initially been produced in Japan by Rinnai but since September 2009 the production
has been shifted to a plant in Dongguan City, southern China. While BDR Thermea has already started
to sell their versions of the Micro CHP units, Viessmann have conducted field trials of their product
and is expected to start selling it in the Netherlands in 2011 via its own network of dedicated installers.
Vaillant however has not yet set a date for the introduction of its MEC based unit.
Another consortium is lead by Infinia – the patent’s owner- and includes the Italian boiler
manufacturer Ariston Thermogroup, the German Bosch Thermotechnik, the Japanese engine producer
Rinnai and Enatec. Founded in 1997, Enatec micro-cogen B.V. has for a long time been involved in
the development of micro CHP applications based on free piston Stirling engines, of system
integration and its connection to the electricity grid. Enatec owns various patents regarding the Stirling
engine interface, the electronics for electricity grid connection and free piston applications.
The shares of Enatec are owned by the Dutch energy company ENECO and the Energy Research
Centre of the Netherlands (or ECN - Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland).
Enatec has developed Stirling engines for application in micro CHP appliances. The Infinia Stirling
design is used for this purpose and has been adapted by Enatec into a reliable and efficient engine.
Enatec has developed an appliance that was successfully used in field trials in 2002 and 2003. Late
2004 the first contacts were made with Rinnai that have resulted in Rinnai becoming the first
manufacturer of the Stirling engines.
The Infinia Stirling based generator can be connected to the public mains network via a grid box. This
grid box facilitates the synchronisation and connection with the mains network, and provides for the
legally prescribed system security. The grid box has been developed by Enatec in collaboration with
Magnetics Enterprise B.V.
The current unit is integrated into a floor-mounted unit alongside a hot water cylinder (rather than wall
hung such as the MEC unit). The product is expected to be launched into the Dutch market by mid
2011 by the Ariston Thermogroup under the Elco brand and by Bosch Thermotechnik at the end
2010/beginning 2011.
In the same time Ariston reported that the consortium is working on the development of wall mounted
unit expected to be launched by mid 2012.
© BSRIA
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In early 2009 Energetix Group plc announced that its subsidiary Energetix Genlec Limited has signed
a commercial agreement with Daalderop BV, a supplier of innovative heating equipment based in Tiel,
the Netherlands. Energetix Genlec has been working on a 1kWe Micro CHP unit (commercialised
under the name CombiVolt) that incorporates Organic Rankine Cycle Engine. The agreement requires
Daalderop to achieve an agreed volume of sales that has been set at 30,000 over the next three-year
period. However earlier this year field tests revealed systems engineering problems related to
hardware and software changes, which means that the commercialisation of the Genlec wall mounted
unit had to be postponed. The product is expected to be launched in mid-2012, at least six months later
than initially scheduled.
Table 11 Manufacturers / suppliers of micro CHP to the market, 2005-2010
Manufacturer/
Supplier
Product
Engine
Status
Fuel
Type
Perf.
el.
(kW)
Perf.
Therm
(kW)
Units
in
trial
(E)
Units
sold
up to
06/10 (E)
Baxi Senertec
Dachs
ICE
Commercialised
since 2005
Gas/
LPG
5.,5
12.5
N/C
110-140
Remeha
Evita
SE
Commercialised since
Q2 2010
Gas
1.0
3.0 –
24.0
200
30-40
Baxi
Ecogen
SE
Q3 2009
Gas
1.0
3.0 –
24.0
200
40-50
Power Plus
Technology
Eco Power
ICE
Q1 2009 / suspended
Gas
1.3 -4.7
12
200
<10
WhisperTech
WhisperGen
SE
2005
Gas
1.0
7.0
200
110-130
Energetix
Daalderop
CombiVolt
ORC
Field trials /
commercialisation
expected 2012
Gas
1.0
n.a.
200
n.a.
Viessmann
MEC
Microgen
SE
Field trials /
commercialisation
expected 2011
Gas
1.0
3.024.0
N/C
n.a.
Elco/Ariston
MEC
SE
Field trials/
commercialisation
expected mid 2011
Gas
1.0
5.025.0
150
n.a.
Bosch
Thermotechnik
NC
SE
Field trials/
commercialisation
expected early 2011
Gas
1.0
4.035.0
200
n.a.
Source: BSRIA
3.5
PRICES
High price of micro CHP boilers remains the major obstacle to the mass penetration of the product in
the Dutch market. Dutch end users are very price sensitive and therefore a current cost that represents
roughly threefold price of a conventional boiler is something suppliers have to take in close
consideration.
In 2010 the end user price for a WhisperTech unit was set at €9,995 while the BDR Thermea units
have entered the market with the price of €10,250. These prices exclude VAT, accessories and
installation cost that need to be added. Overall the total cost of the installed system comes to around
€18,000 with the possibility of receiving the grant of €4,000 provided that the conditions and
requirements established by the government are fulfilled. The price is expected to fall substantially
when mass production gets into its stride.
Depending on the type of unit (wall hung or floor standing) and the type of building (new or existing)
installation fees may vary between 3,000 and 5,000 Euros.
The price of mini CHP has been reported to be around €3,000 per kWe or €15,000 for a SenerTec
Dachs unit (excluded VAT and installation cost).
© BSRIA
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4
THE NETHERLANDS
FUEL CELLS
4.1
TYPE OF FUEL CELLS
Fuel cell micro CHP is another technology the Dutch government has been looking forward to
introduce as an alternative to fossil fuel heating system. Research programmes have been carried out
over the last decade by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), Kiwa Gas Technology
and the Dutch gas trading company GasTerra in cooperation with energy companies such as Nuon and
Gasunie (transmission grid operator).
Heating manufacturers such as Baxi/Remeha, Ariston and Daalderop are involved in the development
of a fuel cell based boiler but so far no unit with an output up to 10kWe is known to have been fitted
in real life conditions.
The two types of fuel cells most suitable for micro CHP are PEM fuel cells and SO fuel cells. PEM
fuel cells are very flexible and they are suited for a number of applications; cars, buses, backup
generators to name a few but there are some doubts if they are the best technology to use in domestic
applications. Indeed PEM fuel cells require a pure source of hydrogen, therefore an external natural
gas to hydrogen reformer and gas cleaning equipment is needed. They also have a relatively low
electrical efficiencies of only 30 to 35%. From the other side they are quite responsive to changes in
power demand and are best suited for load following installations.
SO fuel cell powered micro CHP units are ideally suited for continuous operation, providing stable
base load electricity 24 hours a day. SOFC systems also have very high electrical efficiencies and that
means less waste heat and more electricity for a given amount of fuel. Other benefits of SOFC
powered micro CHP units include: operation on natural gas utilising existing infrastructure, the ability
to operate on other fuel types such as diesel, LPG, ethanol and other hydrocarbon fuels. The level of
emissions from SOFC micro CHP units are extremely low with no Nitrous Oxide or Sulphur Dioxide
produced and around 60% less Carbon Dioxide than combustion based technologies.
Phosphoric acid fuel cells (PAFC) and alkaline fuel cells (AFC) are not reported to be developed at the
present time in the Netherlands or indeed in Europe and are only beginning to be developed in Japan.
As a consequence polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells and solid oxide fuel cells are likely to be
the first technologies to be launched in the market. However their appearance on the market is not
believed to happen before at least 4-5 years.
4.2
ELECTRICAL OUTPUT
Units under current development are primarily designed to be sold as a substitute for domestic boilers.
Most of them have power output between 1 and 2kWe:
•
•
•
BlueGen by Ceramic Fuel Cell Ltd can provide 1.5kWe
Viessmann’s unit can provide 2kWe
Baxi Innotech’s Gamma FC can provide 1kWe
The heat to power ratio is much lower in fuel cell based units, therefore they will need to have an
additional burner integrated to be able to deliver required amount of heat to the households.
© BSRIA
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4.3
END USER
As all fuel cell based units will have to have additional burner integrated, its thermal output can be
defined according to the end application in the new build (where much less heat is needed) and in the
refurbishment segment, where more heat load is required.
Based on the objectives set by the European Commission to reduce energy consumption and carbon
footprint in buildings, existing housing market will certainly be targeted by fuel cell based boilers. The
Dutch government has fixed the initiative to upgrade 2.1 million social houses by 2018 and given the
ease of installation of fuel cell based units they could be the perfect substitute for conventional gas
boilers.
It is likely that installation in the refurbishment segment will account for a significant share of the
market once the products become commercially available. So far fuel cells have been tested in
laboratories, hence the current lack of information.
4.4
The Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) in Petten has been active in many aspects of
fuel cell technology. This includes activities in PEM fuel cells and components, SO fuel cells and
components, fuel processing and fuel cell system design and testing.
The ECN activities are focused on both stationary and automotive applications (not covered in this
study).
ECN operates two fuel cell systems for the co-generation of heat and power. Both systems operate on
natural gas as feedstock and will be targeting European residential applications.
Presently hydrogen funding at an estimated value of about 2 million Euros per year is provided
towards hydrogen technologies. It is expected that within a few years the funding level can increase to
5-10 million Euro per year.
The Netherlands government has supported R&D of fuel cells since 1986. In 1990, the Dutch Fuel
Cell Corporation (BCN BV) was established, through which ECN, Stork N.V., and the Royal
Scheldegroep B.V. cooperate in developing and commercializing molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC).
Government funding for this fuel cell program has been quite substantial, but in recent years has been
declining as the technology gets closer to the marketplace. Following the Novem’s program
comprising research, development and demonstrations wider application of molten carbonate fuel cells
(MCFC), solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), and solid polymer fuel cell (SPFC) are tested. ECN has
supported the development of a second generation of MCFC that incorporates direct internal
reforming so that CH4 can be supplied directly to the fuel cell. Research also focused on extending the
lifespan of the MCFCs by developing alternative electrolytes.
Since 2007 Nuon, the Netherlands' largest energy provider has cooperated with Ceramic Fuel Cell
Limited (CFCL) and Remeha to develop a solid oxide fuel cell micro CHP unit called BlueGen. In
2008 Nuon has signed an agreement with CFCL to take an option of 50,000 fuel cells in the period
between 2009 till 2015. The deal is worth a 150 million Euro but has some binding conditions. This
agreement covers the development of a fully integrated micro CHP unit for the residential market
across the Netherlands and Belgium. The micro CHP units will be deployed by Nuon to its residential
customers to provide both electricity and heat in their homes. But the units will be owned, and to some
extent operated, by Nuon.
© BSRIA
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The power density of the fuel cell’s steel/ceramic stack has been increased, allowing the rated output
to be doubled, to 2 kWe, at minimal additional balance of plant cost. This development represents a
crucial step for the unit as it significantly reduces the unit's costs per kW. The CFCL idea is essentially
that the low heat to power ratio allows the fuel cell system to be operated all the time with the
relatively small heat output it produces going continuously to the hot water tank, which acts as a
thermal store. Power not needed in the house is transmitted to the grid, while additional space heating
demands are met by the integrated boiler burner.
In October 2009 CFCL opened a manufacturing plant, one of the first in the world for the volume
production of solid oxide fuel cell stacks, in Heinsberge (Germany). The manufacturing plant is
located in an existing 4,200m2 building in the Industriepark Oberbruch, 40 minutes’ drive from
Dusseldorf in the North Rhine-Westphalia region of Germany. The plant has a design capacity of
10,000 fuel cell stacks per year. Ceramic Fuel Cell’s investment in the plant construction, including
state of the art automated manufacturing equipment, totalled 9.5 million Euros. All pieces of
equipment have been commissioned on-site and are operational. The consortium is now developing
the integrated CFCL fuel cell boiler.
Nuon recently ordered 50,000 fuel cell stacks plus associated balance of plant (one stack plus balance
of plant per micro CHP unit) from CFCL, to be delivered over a five year period, from June 2009. The
order is dependent on a set of performance targets being reached for a commercial micro CHP unit, as
agreed between CFCL and Nuon. The performance targets relate to weight and size (with wall
mountable units being preferable in Nuon's target marketplace), power and heat output, efficiency,
lifetime and degradation over time (a key issue for fuel cell based systems), carbon dioxide savings
and of course price. It is also anticipated that the fuel-cell based micro CHP unit will be "easy to
install" as it uses the same pipes as existing high-efficiency boilers.
To date, CFCL has signed three way agreements with Gaz de France and De Dietrich Thermique in
France, EWE and Bruns Heiztechnik in Germany, E.ON and Gledhill Water Storage Ltd in the UK,
and, as already noted, Nuon and Remeha in Holland.
In January 2008 CFCL also entered the Japanese market by signing of an agreement with gas
appliance maker Paloma.
In a further recent step that is in line with the company's outsourcing strategy, CFCL has arranged for
what it calls its fuel cell 'power chips' - ie the individual fuel cell elements that make up the stacks - to
be manufactured by established ceramics specialists H.C. Starck and CeramTec at their facilities in
Germany, and both companies have entered long term contracts. CFCL believes the power chips are
well on their way to becoming what might be described as a commodity item.
Ceres Power is another manufacturer active in the field of fuel cells in the Netherlands and worldwide.
It has developed a wall hung solid oxide fuel cell integrated CHP unit in cooperation with Genlec and
the Dutch boiler manufacturer Daalderop. Mid 2010 the company announced that the wall-mounted
boiler would not reach the mass market until mid-2012 at least six months later than initially
scheduled due to systems engineering problems related to hardware and software changes. Field trials
of the product in people's homes have also been delayed by three months because, according to the
company, more time was needed to make changes necessary in order to obtain a safety certificate.
Ariston reported that they have been working on the development of a SOFC fuel cell micro CHP
boiler. Technology partners are Acumentrics Corporation and SOFC power. The commercialisation is
expected in 2015 at the earliest.
© BSRIA
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Viessmann has been developing a 2kWe domestic cogeneration unit based on a PEM fuel cell.
Development partners are the German companies SGL-Carbon for the development of the bipolar
plates, Siemens HVAC division for the steering and control, OMG and Sudchemie for catalyst
development and the Zentrum fur Sonnenenergie und Wasserstoffforschung (ZSW) for the design of
the cells.
Baxi Innotech has been running field tests of their own fuel cell based units in cooperation with
GasTerra and the three main Dutch utilities Nuon, Essent and Eneco. Over the three year period
starting in 2005 the Beta 1.5 and Beta 1.5 Plus were tested by utilites. From 2010 to 2012 the Gamma
pre-series will run for demonstration. The market entry of the products is expected in 2013.
Table 12 Manufacturers / suppliers of fuel cells to the market, 2005-2010
Technology
Current status
Units in trial
Units sold
up to 06/10
SOFC
Field trials
NC
-
PEM
Field trials
NC
-
Ceramic Fuel Cells
SOFC
Field trials
NC
-
Ceres Power
SOFC
Field trials
NC
-
PEM
Field trials
NC
-
Manufacturer/Supplier
Ariston
Baxi Innotech
Viessmann
Source: BSRIA
4.5
PRICES
Although no unit has been commercially available in the Dutch market yet, the price of components
represents the main barrier to the viability of the system.
A recent study run by the University of Birmingham gives indications on the cost of the various fuel
cell types:
Table 13 Indications on the cost of various fuel cell types PEMFC
Current retail price
Volume cost estimate
€20,000 to €50,000 for 1kW systems
Anywhere from €100 to €10,000 per kW
Over €50,000 for 1kW systems
Between €300 and €900 per kW
Around €3000-5000 per kW for industrial CHP
Unknown
SOFC
PAFC
AFC
Source: www.fuelcells.bham.ac.uk
© BSRIA
Unknown
Between €150 and €600 per kW
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5
THE NETHERLANDS
GAS HEAT PUMPS
5.1
MARKET SIZE & SEGMENTATION
The gas heat pump market that is relevant for the purpose of this study remains limited in the
Netherlands in spite of the large national gas infrastructure and government incentives.
This is related to little competition and consequently high prices of products. Few companies only
have been active on the gas heat pump market.
One single company supply the gas absorption heat pumps in the Netherlands: the Italian manufacturer
Robur who is selling its products via the Dutch distributor Techneco BV and from Q3 2009 through
Remeha on the basis of an OEM agreement. The latter agreement has been regarded as the main
reason for the significant growth of the market in 2010.
As for gas engine heat pumps, Aisin and Sanyo have been the only suppliers of units up to 100kW in
the Netherlands in both 2009 and 2010. Aisin is supplying the products via its distributor Gas
Engineering BV while Sanyo has a commercial agreement with ICE BV.
The demand for gas engine heat pumps is said to be steady as the system installations represent a big
investment and the economic and political climate in the Netherlands has not been favourable for
dynamic market development in 2010.
Table 14 Gas heat pumps by type, 2009 and 2010E
Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps
Gas engine heat pump
Total gas heat pumps
Source: BSRIA
2009
units
110
60
%
64.7%
35.3%
2010E
units
260
65
%
80.0%
20.0%
170
100.0%
325
100.0%
Figure 10 Gas heat pumps by type, volume (units), 2009
Gas ab/ adsorption heat pumps 110 units
Gas engine heat pump 60 units
Source: BSRIA
© BSRIA
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5.2
OUTPUT
5.2.1
Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by thermal output
With Robur being the sole supplier of gas absorption heat pumps in the Dutch market, its units with
36kW and 40kW thermal output represented the total market sales in both 2009 and 2010.
These units are mainly suitable for the residential multi dwelling and tertiary sector where they can
also be mounted in cascade in order to meet higher heating demand.
Table 15 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by thermal output, 2009 and 2010E
2009
0 - 20kW
20.1 - 50kW
50.1 - 100kW
Total
Source: BSRIA
2010E
units
0
110
0
%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
units
0
260
0
%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
110
100.0%
260
100.0%
Figure 11 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by thermal output, volume (units), 2009
20.1 ‐ 50kW 110 units
Source: BSRIA
5.2.2
Gas engine heat pumps by thermal output
The Dutch gas engine heat pump market is largely dominated by installation in the commercial sector
where heating load is important. As a result sales of large output units are dominant.
Within Sanyo’s range the Eco G 67kWth is reported to be the most popular as it has the highest
efficiency (av.COP=1.42).
Table 16 Gas engine heat pumps by thermal output, 2009 and 2010E
2009
0 - 20kW
20.1 - 50kW
50.1 - 100kW
Total
Source: BSRIA
© BSRIA
2010E
units
10
10
40
%
12.0%
23.0%
65.0%
units
10
20
40
%
10.0%
25.0%
65.0%
60
100.0%
70
100.0%
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Figure 12 Gas engine heat pumps by thermal output, volume (units), 2009
20.1 ‐ 50kW 10 units
50.1 ‐ 100kW 40 units
0 ‐ 20kW 10 units
Source: BSRIA
5.3
END USER
5.3.1
Gas Ab/adsorption heat pumps
Gas absorption heat pumps are generally fitted in the residential multi dwelling sector. This is claimed
to be the result of the allocation of generous subsidies for this type of product (see chapter 7.2
Incentives). However, due to more stringent regulation the new built market is expected to gain shares
in 2010 and onwards as gas heat pumps represent a suitable option to reduce energy consumption and
therefore can help reaching the 0.6 coefficient required by new building regulations.
Table 17 Gas Ab/adsorption heat pumps by end user, 2009 and 2010E
2009
units
New build
Refurbishment
Total
Source: BSRIA
2010E
%
units
%
30
80
30.0%
70.0%
90
170
35.0%
65.0%
110
100.0%
260
100.0%
Figure 13 Gas ab/adsorption heat pumps by end user, volume (units), 2009
Refurbish‐
ment 80 units
New build 30 units
Source: BSRIA
© BSRIA
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5.3.2
THE NETHERLANDS
Gas engine heat pumps
Gas engine heat pumps have been more often installed in the refurbishment sector in 2009 and 2010
where they have been replacing old chillers and VRV systems.
They are expected to gain slightly more share in the new build segment in 2010 where they help
achieving energy efficiency targets and certainly become more popular in the new build in 2011 when
the new target of 0.6 for EPC will be obligatory from January on.
Hospitals, leisure centres, hotels, office buildings and restaurants are the main types of buildings
where gas engine heat pumps are installed.
Table 18 Gas engine heat pumps by end user, 2009 and 2010E
2009
units
New build
Refurbishment
Total
Source: BSRIA
2010E
20
40
%
40.0%
60.0%
60
100.0%
units
%
20
40
42.0%
58.0%
60
100.0%
Figure 14 Gas engine heat pumps by end user, volume (units), 2009
New build 20 units
Refurbish‐
ment 40 units
Source: BSRIA
5.4
There has been no local manufacturer of gas heat pumps with a thermal output under 100kW in the
Netherlands in 2010 and before. All products available on the market were imported. Among the
suppliers of gas absorption heat pumps Remeha and Techneco were distributing gas absorption heat
pumps manufactured by Robur in Italy.
As regards gas engine heat pumps none of the products available in the Netherlands have been
manufactured locally either but have been imported and distributed via suppliers: Gas Engineering –
distributor of Aisin units, and ICE – distributor of Sanyo heat pumps.
© BSRIA
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There are two other suppliers of gas heat pumps in the Netherlands, who manufacture large units with
an output over 200kW that are outside of the scope of this study:
•
•
Company called Colibri manufactures on demand gas absorption heat pumps with a thermal
output starting from 250kW and deliverd turnkey projects.
Installect Advies is Dutch manufacturer of gas engine heat pumps with an output over 200kW.
They started selling their units early in 2010 under the brand GeoComfort, the mother company’s
name. In partnership with GeoComfort Installect Advies offers turnkey projects.
Table 19 Manufacturers / suppliers of gas heat pumps to the market, 2005-2010
Manufacturer/Supplier
Sanyo / ICE BV
Technology
Gas engine
Current status
Commercialised
Units in trial
-
Units sold
up to
06/10
< 50
Aisin / Gas Engineering
Gas engine
Commercialised
-
< 50
Robur/ Techneco
Gas absorption
Commercialised
-
< 50
Robur/ Remeha
Source: BSRIA
Gas absorption
Commercialised
-
20-30
5.5
PRICES
Similarly to the other technologies covered in this report, prices of gas heat pumps impede market
expansion. Although gas heat pumps have been available for a few years on the market the prices have
been reported as stable, not on the downward trend yet.
As regards list prices gas absorption heat pump with a 35kW output costs 12,500 Euros while the price
of a gas engine unit is in the range of 900 to 1100 Euros per kW heating load.
When including commissioning, accessories, installation costs and taxes the price of a complete
installation is said to be roughly double the price of a unit itself.
In the current market situation manufacturers do not expect price decreases for at least the next three
years.
© BSRIA
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THE NETHERLANDS
OTHER COGENERATION SYSTEMS
Among other cogeneration systems developed in the Netherlands micro gas turbine was quoted the
most often. A recent trend is the application of “micro turbines” for small-scale power generation up
to 100kW. The Dutch company Micro Turbine Technology, MTT, has developed a micro gas turbine
for application in domestic micro CHP and in the automotive industry to provide auxiliary power in
trucks.
Since its creation in 2003 MTT has signed several contracts for joint development of the technology
with notably Insulcon Group, Prodrive, Cematec Engineering, Delft University of Technology, TNO
Industry & Technology and Polidoro SpA. MTT is still involved in laboratory testing to reach higher
efficiency even if the electricity to heat ratio has reached so far 1:9. Significant challenges still remain
in terms of efficiency, operating costs and environmental issues to make micro turbines competitive in
relation to existing concepts. 2010 is a milestone for company’s development. As a matter of fact
MTT has started the initial activities on certification of its 3kWe natural gas fired micro CHP system
in cooperation with KIWA-Gastec and Gasterra. The commercialisation of MTT units is expected in
2012.
© BSRIA
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7
MARKET DRIVERS
7.1
ENERGY POLICY AND REGULATIONS
7.1.1
Energy-efficient housing
THE NETHERLANDS
The concept of energy efficiency housing was developed in Sweden at the end of the 1990s and in the
meantime thousands of passive houses have been built, primarily in Germany, Sweden, Switzerland
and Austria.
The heating supply per square meter of floor area in a passive house is set at 15 kWh/m2 per year. To
manage to reach that level insulated doors and window frames and triple glazing are the measures in
place to improve the air tightness as well as ‘plug and play’ ventilation distribution system and outside
facade insulation. Heat pumps and solar panels – thermal and photovoltaic– are within the systems that
architects and building contractors recommand to provide space heating and sanitary hot water.
Unlike its neighbouring countries, passive houses are not common in the Netherlands. Despite
constant increase in fossil fuel prices and raising awareness on environemntal issues, higher cost of
low energy and passive houses in particular compared to traditional terraced houses curbs the
development of the market. The target of the Dutch government’s agency of Economy, SenterNovem,
is to reach 3,500 passive houses built in 2010 to be then increased to 56,000 dwellings by 2020. The
concept has been implemented by the local company Itho, large manufacturer of domestic heat
recovery units.
7.1.2
Building regulations/ energy efficiency laws
Following the Building Decree of 1992, the Energy Performance Standard (EPN) was introduced in
1995. The Dutch government established requirements for all new buildings to reach a performance
standard. This latter consists of a standardized method for the calculation of an Energy Performance
Coefficient (EPC) by a reference figure, which is related to the size of the house (surface size of outer
building and the floors of the heated part). The current policy regarding new buildings is set down in
the Building Decree and the Energy Performance Standard (EPS).The Building Decree specifically
regulates the constructional requirements to which new buildings have to comply in the Netherlands.
This also includes minimal demands with regard to insulation values of facades, floors and roof
elements and requirements for installations (establishing standards on the level of components).
The EPC sets up requirements regarding the energy performance of a house or (commercial) building.
Since its introduction in 1995 the standard in the Building Decree has been tightened several times
resulting in the decrease of the maximum energy performance coefficient (EPC) for newly built
housing from 1.4 in 1995 to 0.8 presently. Newly built houses can save an average of 30% in energy
by the implementation of this measure. The standards for utility building have also been made stricter
and the EPC will be reduced to 0.6 in 2011 and further to 0.4 in 2015. By that time, the energy
consumption for space heating is comparable to the Passive House concept (15 kWh/m2). The Dutch
government also targets to make non-residential buildings 50% more energy efficient in 2017.
The energy performance requirements for new buildings shall comply with the Dutch Energy
Performance Standard (EPN) as required by the building regulation, Bouwbesluit 2003. There is no
requirement set for existing buildings. However, buildings undergoing major renovations are required
to meet the minimum energy performance requirements as stated earlier. Under the current national
building regulations, proof that the requirements have been met must be given before the completion
of the buildings. Local Authority is responsible for the verification of this legal provision. The main
requirement is to comply with a given maximum value for the Energy Performance Coefficient,
energiepresatiecoëfficiënt, (EPC).
© BSRIA
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In December 2002 the European Parliament ratified Directive 2002/91/EC on the energy performance
of buildings, which makes the implementation of energy performance certification programs
compulsory for all member states. The Directive argues “a common approach will contribute to a level
playing field as regards efforts made in member states to energy saving in the buildings sector and will
introduce transparency for prospective owners or users with regard to the energy performance in the
Community property market.” This led to the introduction of more or less comparable energy
performance certificates (EPCs) across the European Union. The energy performance certificates have
to be included in all advertisements for selling or renting properties.
The energy performance certificate should increase the transparency of the energy use of a specific
dwelling. In turn, one would expect the certificate to represent a certain economic value, as a higher
rating represents a revenue stream stemming from future energy savings.
Since January 2008, all transactions in the Dutch housing market need to be accompanied by the
energy performance certificate. There are a few exceptions though:
•
•
Dwellings that have been constructed after 1999, and
Transactions in which the seller and buyer together decide not to apply for an energy performance
certificate.
Moreover, social housing corporations have been obliged to rate their complete housing stock by
January 2009. SenterNovem, an agency of the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, exerts quality
control and registration of the certificates.
According to the Statistics Office about one quarter of houses in the Netherlands were issued with an
energy label until December 2009. The map below shows the percentage of homes with an energy
label. The province of Zeeland is particularly ahead on that matter; at the end of 2009 more than a
quarter of homes in Zeeland had a label, compared with 3 percent in mid 2009. This is largely
attributed to the fact that councils in the Northern regions of the country were allocating higher
amounts of subsidies.
Figure 15 Homes with an energy label, 31 December 2009
© BSRIA
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For Energy Label on existing building, it is measure in terms of Energy Index (EI). It is calculated
based on a different calculation method and shouldn’t mixed up with EPC.
Four companies are accrediting the assessors that can issue the Energy Performance Certificate. From
November 2008, all assessors are obligated to pass an individual exam before they can issue an
Energy Certificate.
From 1st January 2008, the energy performance certificate is required for all rent or sales buildings
except for dwelling completed after 1999. Buildings with surface area under 50 m2 are exempted from
the requirement.
All public building must have energy label by 31 December 2008. Building surface area under 1,000
m2 and monuments are exempted from the requirement. The Dutch government will display the
Certificate in all of its buildings that are accessible to the public. Schools and healthcare institutes will
not have to comply with this requirement as according to the Dutch definition, these institutes are not
defined as public services.
From 1 January 2009, all housing corporation should have their property certified with Energy
Certificate.
7.2
INCENTIVES
7.2.1
Energy Investment Allowance (EIA)
The Netherlands aims to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and to create an economy that is both
efficient and sustainable in terms of its energy use. In order to stimulate companies to invest in green
technologies. Agentscha (formerly SenterNovem) and the Dutch Tax authorities implemented a
programme to grant Dutch companies 44% tax rebate from their fiscal profit while investing in energy
efficient equipment and renewable energy sources. The amount is up to a maximum of EUR 108
million per year. The maximum deduction is 107 million Euros per year per fiscal entity. The
minimum investment (in the year of application) is 2,000 Euros.
Heat pump
The minimum energy-performance criterion for heat pumps used for buildings and processes has been
tightened. Included under the EIA scheme are gas-fired absorption heat pumps with a gas utilisation
efficiency of ≥ 1.4, measured conform with EN 12309-2 standard, (possibly) with a ground-source
heat exchanger or groundwater source, (possibly) residual heat storage tank, heating network, and gas
absorption heat pump, where the regenerator is driven by waste heat or heat from a sustainable source
or waste heat from a production process or cogeneration plant, (possibly) ground-source heat
exchanger or groundwater source, (possibly) with residual heat storage tank), possibly with heating
network.
When heating corporate buildings it is possible to apply for EIA with respect to the cost of the heating
network, up to a maximum investment of € 200 per kW installed thermal capacity of the heat pump.
However, heat pumps are only eligible for EIA support if they are used in corporate buildings or for
heat processes. A heat pump in a residential building is not eligible for EIA. This has been changed
because the law on income and corporate tax, on which the EIA scheme is based, excludes
investments in homes.
© BSRIA
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Cogeneration plants
Cogeneration plants are often used by energy-intensive companies. Generation plants to produce
electricity from natural gas are also becoming more energy efficient. The efficiency criteria for
cogeneration have therefore been increased. Small cogeneration plants using a piston engine (capacity
up to 1MW) have been added as an extra category, with a maximum investment (per kW of electrical
power) of € 600. This change has been implemented to further encourage the use of cogeneration
plants by less energy-intensive companies.
7.2.2
Duurzame Warmte
As of September 2008 the Dutch Government via the Agenschap government agency (Senternovem
until January 2010) has implemented a new subsidy scheme for renewable energy products including
micro CHP and gas absorption heat pumps. The grant is allocated to occupiers of existing dwellings –
house owners and tenants– as well as housing developers that invest in one of the products over the
period ending in 2011. Currently the amount for a small scale cogeneration unit has been set up at
€4000. The grant is available for systems fuelled by natural gas, biogas, propane or butane (not
biomass) with a power output between 0.8 and 5kW and thermal efficiency proven of 107% according
to the standard NEN-EN 677.
Despite political uncertainty and rumours about future reduction of the amount of subsidy, changes are
not expected in the coming months seeing the limited size of the micro CHP market. Once sales will
have reached a higher volume feed-in tariffs may be introduced but nothing has been officially
announced yet.
Agentschap also allocate subsidies for gas absorption heat pump as part of the support scheme for
renewable and sustainable technologies. The amount granted is in the range of 315-320 Euros per kW
of thermal output. As part of the Agentschap programme the conditions are similar to micro CHP; the
grant is for homeowners and tenants of existing dwellings and building developers alike and allocated
on the presentation of installer’s invoice.
7.2.3
Feed-in tariffs and smart grid integration
There is no feed-in tariff available at the moment in the Netherlands for electricity supplied back to the
national grid. Electricity produced by micro and mini CHP units is credited to the consumers’ energy
bill. The current Dutch Electricity Law does not laid down utilities companies to implement a new
business model taking into account net metering and a new software tool balancing energy demand
and use, hence the slow market take off.
The introduction of smart metering in the Netherlands is part of a larger comprehensive set of
regulation proposals to simplify and improve the administrative process involved in collecting and
transferring measurement data in a restructured meter market for small consumers. This will involve
reallocating responsibilities among the various market parties and making meters subject to regulation.
The acceleration of sales of micro CHP in the Netherlands and the fast growth of this market will be a
big step to a sustainable energy supply. The electricity grid especially will be influenced substantially.
This grid is developed for the transmission and distribution of electricity from ‘central’ power stations
to households - a one-way traffic on the traditional electricity grid.
© BSRIA
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On the contrary, distributed generation will cause two-way traffic (transmission and electricity
exchange) on the grid, so currents in the grid will be more unpredictable. The peaks and off-peaks will
be uncertain and the absolute difference between maximum and minimum currents will increase. The
grid has to deal with all the possible cases. This will become more complicated when micro CHP will
operate on the market price of electricity on the power exchange. The grid companies will have to deal
with the following issues:

short-circuit power - when there is a short circuit in the grid the current will be high. The
components in the electricity grid are designed to withstand these currents. The short circuit power
will be a lot higher when there are many distributed generators in the grid as all the small
generators will feed into the short circuit. It might be necessary to select the components to meet
these heavier requirements. This will obviously lead to a more expensive grid compared with the
traditional ones.

safety in the grid - when maintenance or repair work is required on the grid, service personnel
must be assured that there is no voltage there. Without distributed generators in the low-voltage
grid, this is easy - because the low-voltage grid is radial, the current can only flow one way.
However, with distributed generation, generators will be randomly connected to the network. This
can cause unexpected voltage on the grid while it is being serviced. This situation is unacceptable
and must be prevented.

protection of the grid - when a fault occurs in the grid, protective devices will disconnect the
interrupted section in the grid. The protection is selective so that just a small part of the grid is
switched off and the reaction time is very short. However, this conventional protection concept is
based on ‘current from power station to household’; a totally new concept is needed when there is
a high penetration of distributed generators.
At the moment there are not such problems in the energy grids because the number of distributed,
small generators is still low. But it is very important for grid companies to do research on the possible
effects in the future.
The current grids have a very large disadvantage compared with the above changes. Their lifetime and
the depreciation time are about 40-50 years. So every cable or transformer will still be in use until
about 2050. A grid company in the Netherlands will recover the costs in 40-50 years, so it is very
important to have a long-term vision.
Real-conditions field trials have been conducted in the Netherlands – in Apeldoorn and Utrecht
notably- to conduct a test in a real-life situation with real customers. In close cooperation with the grid
companies, 250 micro CHP units have been installed in houses in one neighbourhood so they are
connected to one transformer.
The issues described so far all concern the possible problems in the grids; however, micro CHP can
also support the electricity network. A precondition for this is that generation and the grid are tuned to
each other. This is difficult with the present energy business in the Netherlands because the grid
companies are just facilitators and have no influence on the market and the production of energy. As a
consequence, a new way of thinking is necessary to see all the possibilities. It is expected that the
Netherlands will have new legislation for a voluntary introduction of smart metering in place by
September 2010.
© BSRIA
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8
THE NETHERLANDS
ROUTES TO THE MARKET
8.1
UTILITIES
Four large energy companies - gas and power retailers - in the Netherlands have set up a consortium
called “Slim met Gas”, translated as Smart Gas. This consortium includes Gasterra, Essent, Eneco and
Nuon. All four have acted together and have been working on various projects among which the
development of micro CHP and fuel cell boilers in the Netherlands. They have run research and field
tests in cooperation with research centres such as ECN and KIWA-Gastec. Eneco has been working
with Ariston and Bosch while Nuon have been involved in the introduction and improvement of micro
CHP technology and fuel cells with CFCL notably.
As per sales through utilities it is still unclear what will be the involvement of these latter once the
technologies covered in the scope of this study have reached mass commercialisation. So far energy
companies have played the role of investors by funding research and development activities as well as
facilitators by providing information and raising population’s awareness of new systems. They also
create a bridge platform with heating installers who will be in need of receiving training, most likely to
be given by manufacturers.
8.2
HOUSING DEVELOPERS / SOCIAL HOUSING
Housing developers and Dutch housing associations have taken part in the development of new gas
alternative technologies – micro CHP to the large extent – particularly by cooperating in the
installation of units to be tested in real-life conditions.
In 2009 real-conditions field trials have been conducted in the Netherlands – in the Apeldoorn suburb
of Woudhuis and Utrecht notably – to conduct a test in a real-life situation with real customers. The
field trial is an initiative of network company Liander, gas trading company GasTerra, the province of
Gelderland, energy supplier Nuon, central heating boiler manufacturer Remeha and housing and
welfare corporation 'de Woonmensen'. In close cooperation with the grid companies, 250 micro CHP
units have been installed in houses in one neighbourhood and are all connected to one transformer.
Seeing the current stage of the micro CHP market, manufacturers target housing associations to be the
first route to the market as they are required to meet the EPC and new regulations in building energy
efficiency.
8.3
WHOLESALER AND INSTALLERS
Given the status of the market it is certain that distribution route through wholesalers has not been
established in the Netherlands in 2009 and 2010; first of all because the market is either very small or
inexistent in the case of fuel cells for instance, which makes production costs very high and secondly
because the installation of these types of systems required wide and specific technical knowledge that
wholesalers often cannot provide to their customers. Training is given to installers directly by
manufacturers, which makes the two-step distribution route the most common.
Moreover, given little demand at the moment it is also not considered by manufacturers as a strategic
operation to go through the three-step distribution route.
As regards training of installers it is clear that the number of skilled installers needs to be increased.
Cooperation on education in craft trades are important elements to secure the quality of installation
and maintenance. Working on combined electricity and power units requires a sub sectional overlap
qualification on the sectors of electricity and heating as well as on experience with new technologies.
In addition to heating installers it is also mentioned that the government and the industry will have to
target other intermediaries such as architects, contractors and energy consultants.
© BSRIA
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8.4
CONSUMER AWARENESS / ATTITUDE
The Dutch government has been the forerunner in tackling environmental issues and tackled the
subject several decades ago. By raising people’s awareness about the topic and launching campaigns
through the media results have started to appear. As seeing in the past with the introduction of gas
condensing boiler and its quick adoption the Dutch have shown themselves to be very responsive to
environmental and energy saving issues.
Nevertheless, they are also highly price sensitive therefore current high prices of innovative products
are likely to hamper the market development of gas alternative systems. However the market is still in
its early stage and it is likely that prices will decline in the next 5 years as demand will grow. Prices of
fossil fuels are not expected to decrease and the risks of shortage of supply in the future present a
major issue given the dependence of the Netherlands economy. In order to reduce prices it is stressed
that financial support – either via the Duurzame Warmte programme or he EIA – must be kept in place
to maintain growing awareness.
In addition to end users cost considerations other criteria impact on purchase decisions. Considering
client’s expectations it is vital for the development of the market that products meet the following
motives:

self-sufficiency (regarding supply and costs)
ecological ambitions
cost reduction / energy saving
wish for comfort and simplicity of use
On the other hand spreading information through installers about the availability and the economy
savings achievable thanks to the products also need to be taken in close consideration. As middleman
between manufacturer and end user the installer is a major player in the future development of the
market.
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THE NETHERLANDS
TRENDS AND FORECASTS
In 1995 Gasunie started to study the potential for micro CHP to succeed the high-efficiency boiler.
Various types of micro CHP were tested and installed in houses, but only on a small scale. The
experiences with these systems over the next decade or so were not positive enough to start a largerscale field test.
However, by 2004 Gasunie were confident enough to organize a bigger field test. In this large field
test, conducted with commercial energy companies and the Dutch environment foundation Stichting
Natuur en Milieu, about 50 micro CHP units (Whispergen mk4) were installed in the houses of mainly
employees of energy companies. The Whispergen mk4 has an electrical output of 1 kW and a thermal
output of 7 kW and is based on a four-piston Stirling motor. The 50 units were combined with an
indirect combustion boiler.
The test - concluded in spring 2007 - aimed to gain the first experiences with the production of
electricity with micro CHP, as well as to draw attention to and start a discussion about micro CHP.
Discussion was necessary on feeding self-generated electricity to the public grid: what should have
been the feed-in tariff and what changes were needed in the meter? The first results were positive and
it appeared that the integration of micro CHP in Dutch houses was relatively simple and certainly
achievable.
Meanwhile, GasTerra - the trade and supply division of the now split Gasunie – has been running tests
on a Microgen micro CHP unit. This unit, customized for the Dutch market and based on an earlier
Microgen unit, integrates the production of hot tap water into its concept. A field test with 25 such
units started in 2007, with a total of 500 Microgen and the Whispergen mk5 (successor of mk4) units
planned in the future.
Moreover, the large manufacturers of central heating boilers have been working together under the
Smart Power Foundation (SPF) to introduce micro CHP to the Netherlands. Although micro CHP is
more expensive than the high-efficiency combi-boiler, the manufacturers expect high prices to be
reduced in the few coming years. The government is also helping to prompt the micro CHP market
development by the introduction of financial incentives. The heating market has been facing stricter
regulation over the last decade with new technologies such as electric and hybrid heat pumps and
reversible air conditioning units.
In regard to the market outlook large differences exist in the expectations concerning the potential
penetration of the micro CHP to the market. Large market penetration of micro CHP has been
expected by some on the basis that the product will be adopted as a substitute for the existing High
Efficiency boiler (‘HR-ketel’) in households from 2010-2015. Sceptics consider the new technology
will remain a niche market in the Netherlands and base their assumptions on the following criteria:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
the presence of competing energy technologies such as solar panels, small wind turbines and heat
pumps,
the declining heat demand in future dwelling due to better insulation,
the building of energy-efficient houses (following the building aims of the government),
the relatively small electricity returns and high production costs of the micro CHP,
the expanding network of district heating,
the (desired) decreasing dependency on natural gas as a resource,
the increasing prices of gas,
the decreasing gas infrastructure in newly build houses,
the small chances for the needed radical transformation from centralized electricity system
towards a decentralized system following a described transition pathway,
the limited demand from consumers,
the relatively high market price of the micro CHP and the need for subsidies,
© BSRIA
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•
THE NETHERLANDS
the relatively low returns of the micro CHP compared to existing technologies,
Last but not least Stirling engine micro CHP unit is thought to soon be substituted by most efficient
technology as the one based on fuel cell. However despite the running field tests it is still unknown
when precisely the new fuel cell technology may become available. Some manufacturers had
announced the introduction of their systems this year but it has been postponed over the next two
years.
High price of hydrogen and the fuel cell micro HCP boiler itself come as the major barriers at the
moment. It is stated that transport rather than stationary applications will be the dominant sector for
deployment of hydrogen end-use applications.
Regarding gas heat pumps the market posted strong increase over the recent past although from a
marginal basis. Government incentives to improve buildings energy efficiency and reduce energy
consumption were and still are the main drivers. Nevertheless, high investment requirements and
products specifications make gas heat pumps specifically designed for applications in the commercial
sector. Installations in the residential collective sector have also taken place, particularly of gas
absorption units. This has been linked to the fact that generous subsidies have been allocated to
housing associations via the Duurzame Warmte programme to boost renovation works in dwellings.
The market is forecast to grow at a sustained rate over the next three years with growth rate expected
to stay at a low level for gas engine systems. The outlook for gas absorption heat pump is seen to be
rosier as sales are expected to be driven by the residential sector.
Table 20 Trends and forecast for the gas alternative systems, 2009-2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Micro CHP
Fuel cells
Other cogeneration systems
120
n.a
110
60
0
235
n.a
260
65
0
500
n.a
370
70
0
1,000
50
520
80
50
2,000
50
730
100
70
3,800
70
990
130
90
Total
290
560
940
1,700
2,950
5,080
93%
68%
81%
74%
72%
% Growth
Source: BSRIA
Figure 16 Trend and forecast of the gas alternative systems, volume (units), 2009-2014
4000
3500
3000
Micro CHP
units
2500
Fuel cells
2000
1500
1000
Other hybrid systems
500
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: BSRIA
© BSRIA
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