elections `14 - Mundus International

 ELECTIONS ’14 A Mundus International Journal Elections ’14 is a journal of six issues, which monitors and analyses the elections to the European Parliament and the Swedish Riksdag in 2014. The journal has been specifically developed for foreign missions. PART 1: SETTING THE SCENE 25 November, 2013 Part 1: Setting the Scene Elections ’14 A Mundus International Journal 2014 marks an important political year in Sweden with elections to the European Parliament on
25th May and the national elections being held on 14 September. This first issue of Elections ’14
reviews the present parliamentary situation in light of the 2010 election and the past four years
since the Reinfeldt government was re-elected.
introduction .................................................................................................................. 2 introducing the riksdag parties ................................................................................. 3 the 2010 election ........................................................................................................... 7 At a glance ................................................................................................................................. 7 Two clear alternatives .............................................................................................................. 7 The Sweden Democrats ........................................................................................................... 8 The result ................................................................................................................................... 8 the years in between .................................................................................................. 10 The government Alliance ...................................................................................................... 10 The opposition ........................................................................................................................ 11 the current political situation .................................................................................. 12 In the polls ............................................................................................................................... 12 Party positioning .................................................................................................................... 13 Looking ahead ......................................................................................................................... 14 appendix 1, results in the 2010 election ................................................................. 15 appendix 2, history of Swedish elections .............................................................. 16 appendix 3, the party preference survey ............................................................... 17 references ..................................................................................................................... 18 “All Public Power In Sweden Proceeds From The People And The Riksdag Is The Foremost Representative Of The People” The Instrument of Government 1 Part 1: Setting the Scene INTRODUCTION The Kingdom of Sweden is a constitutional monarchy with a multiparty parliamentary form of government.
The office of Head of State is held by a King or Queen. The title is inherited by the eldest child of the
incumbent Head of State. Sweden's Head of State is the nation’s supreme representative but has no
political powers. The Prime Minister is the Head of Government and exercises executive authority.
Sweden has three levels of government: national, regional and local. In addition, there is the European
level, which has acquired increasing importance following Sweden's entry into the EU in 1995. At the
national level, the people are represented by the Swedish parliament (hereafter referred to as the
Riksdag), which has legislative power. Since 1971, the Swedish Riksdag is a unicameral body composed
of 349 members elected for a fixed four-year term.
The Swedish election system is based on universal suffrage. The right to vote in elections to the Riksdag
and the European Parliament is enjoyed by Swedish citizens who attain the age of 18 not later than on
Election Day and who are, or at some time have been, registered resident in Sweden. In addition, the right
to vote in elections to the European Parliament is also enjoyed by citizens of other member states of the
European Union who attain the age of 18 years not later than Election Day. All citizens who have attained
18 years of age and who have, at some point in time, been residents in Sweden have the right to vote.
Elections are to be free, secret and direct.
The election system used is proportional representation; consequently the share of seats any party
receives in the Riksdag generally reflects the share of all the votes received by that party. Unlike many
other parliamentary democracies of Europe, Sweden has regularly scheduled dates for its general
elections; general elections to the Riksdag, the municipal assemblies and the county council assemblies
are held on the second Sunday of September every fourth year (the term was extended from three to four
years in 1994). In Sweden, the election is always held on a Sunday. Turnout in these synchronized
elections is high, typically in the 80 to 90 per cent range of eligible voters.
Elections to the European Parliament are held every fifth year, in which Sweden constitutes a single
constituency for elections to the European Parliament. Sweden had 18 seats at the election of 2009, but
was allocated an additional two seats when the Lisbon Treaty entered into force. Turnout to the European
Parliament election is typically much lower than to the national general elections.
The constitution requires that a party must gain at least 4 per cent of the national popular vote or 12 per
cent in a constituency to be represented in the Riksdag. The Riksdag's main task is to pass laws and
approve the budget. The Riksdag also approves the incoming Prime Minister. In 2011 a change in the
electoral law came in to force, requiring the Prime Minister to win a vote of confidence in the Riksdag after
each election. Through a vote of no confidence, the Riksdag may bring down the government or force
cabinet ministers to resign. The Prime Minister appoints the ministers of the government. It is not
necessary for cabinet ministers to have a seat in the Riksdag. (Further information on how the elections
are conducted and how governments are formed will be available in Part 3 of Elections ’14).
There are currently eight parties represented in the Riksdag: the Social Democratic Party, the Moderate
Party, the Green Party, the Liberal Party, the Centre Party, the Sweden Democrats, the Christian
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Democrats, and the Left Party.
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In this journal, the political parties will be organised in terms of the number of Riksdag seats acquired in the 2010 election.
2 Part 1: Setting the Scene INTRODUCING THE RIKSDAG PARTIES The Swedish party system was, for many years, one of the most stable party systems in the world, with the
same five parties (S, M, FP, C and V) dominating the political arena until the end of the 1980s, and making
it difficult for new parties to gain a foothold in Swedish politics. However, over the last 20 years new parties
have been able to establish themselves and gain representation in the Riksdag and European Parliament.
In 1988, the Green Party joined the five established parties represented in the Riksdag. In the 1991
election, two new parties emerged on the right, the Christian Democrats (Kristdemokraterna) and the New
Democracy Party (Ny Demokrati). Ahead of the European Parliament elections in 2004, the EU-sceptic
June List (Junilistan) was formed, and, in 2005, The Feminist Initiative, led by the former Left Party leader
Gudrun Schyman, was formed with gender power structure as the main issue. The Pirate Party was
founded in 2006 on issues concerning copyright and privacy in new media as the sole focus. The Pirate
Party took one seat in the European Parliament in 2009, and received another seat when the number of
parliamentary seats was expanded in 2011. The Sweden Democrats were founded in 1988 and gained
representation in the Riksdag in 2010.
Eight political parties are represented in the Riksdag during the current electoral period (2010-2014).
The Swedish Social Democratic Party -­‐‑ Sveriges Socialdemokratiska Arbetareparti (S) The Social Democratic Party, SAP or S, was founded in 1889 and is Sweden’s oldest existing political
party. From its founding, the party was committed to the creation of an egalitarian society. Like in other
Nordic countries, the foundation of the party took place in close co-operation with the trade union
movement. Still today, the co-operation between the party and the Swedish Trade Union Confederation
(LO) remains close and important. The Social Democratic Party began as a traditional labour party, but
has now become more of a party for middle-class and white-collar workers, particularly public servants.
The party is the most successful in Swedish political history, dominating post-war government and credited
with being responsible for the massive expansion of Sweden's welfare state. From 1932 to 1976 (except
for a brief period in 1936), the SAP held power continuously, sometimes in coalition with various groups on
the left. For most of the post-war period, electoral support for the Social Democrats hovered around 45 per
cent. As late as 1994 the Social Democrats won 45.3 per cent of the vote, but, in reality, by the 1970s the
SAP no longer dominated Swedish politics unchallenged. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have had
parliamentary co-operation with the Left party and the Greens on economic policy.
On election night in 2006, Göran Persson, the leader of the Social Democrats, announced he was
stepping down following the party’s worst election result since 1914. Mona Sahlin was elected the first
female leader of the Social Democratic Party in 2007 and was generally thought to be in line to become
the first female Prime Minister of Sweden after the 2010 election. The SAP election defeat in 2010, the
second in a row, was perceived as historic: The Social Democrats recorded their worst performance in
nearly 100 years, only narrowly keeping their position as Sweden’s largest party. Håkan Juholt succeeded
Mona Sahlin as party leader in 2011, following the election loss in 2010. However, on 27 January 2012, Mr
Juholt was replaced by Stefan Löfven after a mere ten months as leader.
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Latest Riksdag election, votes: 30.66%
Current seats in the Riksdag: 112
Current seats in the European Parliament: 6 (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats)
Current party leader: Stefan Löfven (2012)
3 Part 1: Setting the Scene The Moderate Party -­‐‑ Moderata Samlingspartiet (M) The Moderate Party is a centre-right, liberal-conservative party. Founded in 1904 as the Conservative
Party, it took its current name in 1969. From its inception the party promoted a market economy, lower
taxes, and a smaller role for the government in the economy. For much of its history the Moderate Party
played only a relatively minor part within the opposition. By the early 1970s, under the stewardship of
Gösta Bohman, the party shifted from traditionalist conservatism to a more liberal approach to the
economy. Geographically, the Moderate Party has its highest level of support in the urban areas of
Stockholm County, western and southern Sweden, while support in northern Sweden and other sparsely
populated areas is weaker.
After nearly 45 years of rule by the SAP, a non-socialist coalition came to power in 1976, and for part of
this government's tenure (1979–81) the Moderate Party joined the coalition. Following the elections of
1991, the Moderate Party formed a four-party coalition government, and its leader, Carl Bildt, became
Prime Minister. In office the Moderate Party promoted deregulation, reductions in government spending,
privatization of public services, and programs designed to reduce inflation and budget deficits. The party
campaigned for changing the currency to the Euro in the 2003 referendum.
In the 2002 election the Moderate Party received a catastrophic result of only 15.2 per cent of the vote and
lost one-third of their parliamentary seats. In 2003, the 37 year-old Reinfeldt took over the troubled party.
Thirteen months before the 2006 election, the New Moderate Party concept was launched, moving the
party towards the political centre, toning down its criticism of Sweden's welfare state and adopting a
consensual approach. In 2006 the Moderate Party and its partners in Alliance for Sweden narrowly
defeated the Social Democrats, and the leader of the Moderate Party, Fredrik Reinfeldt, became Prime
Minister.
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Votes in the 2010 Riksdag election: 30.06%
Current seats in the Riksdag: 107
Current seats in the European Parliament: 4 (EPP Group)
Current party leader: Fredrik Reinfeldt (2003)
The Green Party -­‐‑ Miljöpartiet de Gröna (MP) The party was founded in 1981. It emerged out of a sense of discontent with the existing parties'
environmental policies, and sparked by the anti-nuclear power movement following the 1980 nuclear
power referendum. The party emphasizes "green politics" and can be described as EU-sceptic. Its
prioritized issues are climate change, anti-discrimination and equal rights. The party's appeal has extended
to attract most of its support among the young, female, urban middle-classes.
The party's breakthrough came in the 1988 election when they received 5.5 per cent of the vote, and
become the first new party to enter the Riksdag in 70 years. In 1991, the Green Party dropped back below
the 4 per cent Riksdag threshold, but returned to parliament again in 1994 (mainly due to the party’s
opposition to Swedish membership in the EU), and has since retained representation. While acting as a
support party for the Social Democrats from 1998-2006, the Greens pushed their green tax agenda,
advocating a general shift in taxation policy towards higher taxes on unsustainable and environmentally
unfriendly practices and products.
The party is represented nationally by two spokespersons, always one man and one woman; currently
held by Gustav Fridolin and Åsa Romson.
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Votes in the 2010 Riksdag election: 7.34%
Current seats in the Riksdag: 25
Current seats in the European Parliament: 2 (Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance)
Current spokespersons: Gustav Fridolin / Åsa Romson (2011)
4 Part 1: Setting the Scene The Liberal Party -­‐‑ Folkpartiet Liberalerna (FP) The Liberal Party was founded in its current shape in 1934. It is a social liberal political party with its roots
in "Frisinnade Landsföreningen", established as early as 1902. The party's base is mostly among the
middle-class. The Liberal Party favours free trade, business, personal responsibility, freedom of choice
and market mechanisms. The Liberal party and is known for its positive stance toward the Euro, EU,
nuclear power, and Nato, and for a high profile on education issues. Aside from taking its place in a wartime coalition government, the Liberals first experienced power in a three party coalition government in
1976 under Thorbjörn Fälldin, and then later under Mr Bildt between 1991 and 1994. The Liberals enjoyed
a successful 2002 election, but were criticised for adopting populist right-wing rhetoric when proposing a
language test requirement for obtaining Swedish citizenship. Since 2006, the Liberal Party has governed
as part of the centre-right Alliance coalition. The party leader since 2007 is Jan Björklund, a former army major and schoolteacher, known for his tough
stance on order in schools. The party supports more open immigration, especially for economic migrants.
The party will focus heavily on education, equality and jobs as it campaigns for the upcoming 2014
national elections.
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Votes in the 2010 Riksdag election: 7.06%
Current seats in the Riksdag: 24
Current seats in the European Parliament: 3 (ALDE group)
Current party leader: Jan Björklund (2007)
The Centre Party -­‐‑ Centerpartiet (C) The Centre Party was founded in 1910 as agrarian party, the Farmer’s League (Bondeförbundet) and
acquired its present name in 1958. The party describes itself as social liberal and maintains close ties to
rural Sweden and environmental issues. The party's focus has shifted from rural areas to the cities, and
from farming to small business. In the European context, the party has a social liberal profile focusing on
social, environmental and progressive development and decentralization.
The Centre Party spent its early years as the closest ally of the Social Democrats, forming a government
coalition in 1951-57 as well as in the war years. The party lead the government from 1976-1982 under
Thorbjörn Fälldin. It participated in Mr Bildt's coalition government from 1991-1994. Since 2006, the Centre
Party has governed as part of the centre-right Alliance coalition.
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Votes in the 2010 Riksdag election: 6.56%
Current seats in the Riksdag: 23
Current seats in the European Parliament: 1 (ALDE group)
Current party leader: Annie Lööf (2011)
The Sweden Democrats -­‐‑ Sverigedemokraterna (SD) The Sweden Democrats was founded in 1988 with an emphasis on anti-immigration politics. The party's
ideology is based on nationalism and social conservativism. Apart from the anti-immigrant policies that
dominate the party’s agenda, the Sweden Democrats stress the concern for older generations and
promote stronger crime legislation.
In contrast to other far-right parties across the EU, the party has its roots in the neo-Nazi movement,
specifically the Keep Sweden Swedish (Bevara Sverige Svenskt) group. The current party leader, Jimmie
Åkesson, has worked hard to tone down its more extremist elements in recent years in an attempt to
attract a broader base of support outside of its core of young working class males. Typically, the Sweden
Democrats are strong among young men, workers and those with only basic education. Geographically,
5 Part 1: Setting the Scene the supporters come from small and medium-sized cities in southern Sweden. But there are indications
that the party is broadening its electoral base; more women and more retirees are now attracted to the
party, as are white-collar workers and those with a higher education.
In the 2010 general elections the party won 5,7 per cent of the votes, and for the first time passed the limit
required for representation in the Swedish parliament. The voters switch to the Sweden Democrats was
mainly driven by issues about immigration and asylum, but also by pensions/care for the elderly and taxes.
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Votes in the 2010 Riksdag election: 5.70%
Current seats in the Riksdag: 20
Current seats in the European Parliament: 0
Current party leader: Jimme Åkesson (2005)
The Christian Democrats -­‐‑ Kristdemokraterna (KD) Established in 1964 as the Christian Democratic Unity (Kristdemokratiska Samhällspartiet), but changed
its name in 1996. The party may be considered a traditional Christian-democratic party and projects a
"family-friendly" image. The party has remained firmly on the centre-right of Swedish politics and espouses
a brand of conservative neo-liberalism. The party was represented in parliament for the first time in 1991. It
was part of the government coalition under Carl Bildt in 1991-1994, with three ministerial posts. Since
2006, the Christian Democrats has governed as part of the centre-right Alliance coalition.
While the party's profile is based on Christian conservative values, the current party leader Göran
Hägglund has sought to modernise the party somewhat, having for example adopted a pro-choice stance
on abortion. The party's support of legislation enforcing the right of gay couples to marry is further
indication of ideological shift during the 2000s.
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Votes in the 2010 Riksdag election: 5.60%
Current seats in the Riksdag: 19
Current seats in the European Parliament: 1 (EPP Group)
Current party leader: Göran Hägglund (2004)
The Left Party -­‐‑ Vänsterpartiet (V) The Left Party was established in 1917 as the Swedish Left Social Democratic Party (Sveriges
socialdemokratiska vänsterparti) following a split from the Social Democratic Party that year. From 19211967 it was known as the Swedish Communist Party and from 1967-1990 as Left Party – Communists. In
1990, the party discarded the word Communist from its name and became the Left Party. The party's
policy is built around three main pillars: socialism, feminism and environment. The Left Party campaigned
against the Swedish entry into the EU and remains sceptic to the monetary union.
While the party has never served in government, it acted as a support party, together with the Greens, to
the Social Democrats between 1998 and 2006.
Under the leadership of Gudrun Schyman, the party experienced a boom in the polls in the late 1990s; the
1998 election saw the Left Party receiving 12 per cent of the votes. But by 2002 the support had fallen to
8.3 per cent and has been in steady decline since Ms Schyman resigned following tax irregularities in
2003. Jonas Sjöstedt has been the party’s leader since 2012.
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Votes in the 2010 Riksdag election: 5.60%
Current seats in the Riksdag: 19
Current seats in the European Parliament: 1 (European United Left - Nordic Green Left)
Current party leader: Jonas Sjöstedt (2012)
6 Part 1: Setting the Scene THE 2010 ELECTION At a glance th
The 27 general election since Sweden introduced universal suffrage in 1921 was held on 19 September
2010. The election presented an opportunity for Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt’s government to be
returned to power after the Alliance for Sweden had won the 2006 elections.
In the previous 2006 elections, the Alliance for Sweden, which comprised four opposition centre-right
parties - the Moderate Party (97 seats), the Centre Party (29 seats), the Liberal Party (28 seats) and the
Christian Democratic Party (24 seats) - won a total of 178 Riksdag seats. Prime Minister Göran Persson's
Social Democratic Party took 130 seats. The Left Party and the Green Party took 22 and 19 seats
respectively, a total of 171 seats.
For the first time, there were two clear government alternatives: Prime Minister Reinfeldt's four-party
coalition (Alliance for Sweden) was challenged by a left-green opposition comprising of the Social
Democrats, the Greens and the Left Party. But no alternative won the majority of the vote. Instead, the
2010 elections saw the Sweden Democrats, a far-right party formed in 1988, entering the Riksdag for the
first time.
Two clear alternatives The Swedish party system has been called a "modified two-party system" despite the number of parties in
the parliament. This is because Swedish politics has a long-standing tradition of a clear dividing line
between the left and right party blocs. However, 2010 was the first election where two coalitions, each with
joined platforms, were running against each other. Before the Alliance for Sweden was formed in 2004,
previous elections had seen the parties campaigning alone, leaving the issue of government formation
until after the election.
Alliance for Sweden In order to break the long-standing Social Democratic domination of Swedish politics, the four non-socialist
parties joined forces in the Alliance for Sweden (Allians för Sverige) two years ahead of the 2006 election.
The Alliance for Sweden was born at a meeting held in the village of Högfors, home to the then leader of
the Centre Party, Maud Olofsson. The meeting ended on 31 August 2004 with the presentation of a joint
declaration outlining the principles under which the four parties intended to run in the upcoming 2006
election. The 2006 election came to be defined by the concept of “Utanförskap” (Alienation). The Alliance
regularly cited figures of up to 1.5 million Swedes living on the margins of the labour market and society,
proposing to address the problem. The strategy proved a success and the Alliance for Sweden formed a
coalition government in 2006.
During the Alliance’s first years in power – years during which they pushed through a great deal of their
election promises – opinion turned sharply against them. When the global finance crisis hit Sweden, the
outcome of the 2010 election appeared settled with low opinion polls and economic hardship unlikely to
increase their appeal. However, the government’s actions during the economic downturn proved to be
exemplary on the international stage. The government’s management of the recession has been described
as very successful compared to many other European countries, which created a reputation that was a
trump card for the Alliance during the campaign. Hence, in the 2010 election campaign, the Alliance
focused on Sweden’s relative economic stability as it attempted to hold on to office. The Alliance
presented its election manifesto entitled: A Sweden, which sticks together (Ett Sverige som håller
samman), with a focus on jobs. As the leader of the Alliance and the Moderate Party, Prime Minister
Reinfeldt’s campaign focused on fiscal responsibility, commitment to selling off state holdings in major
companies, and to continue to cut taxes, especially for the retired.
7 Part 1: Setting the Scene The Red Green Coalition Ahead of the 2010 elections, the leader of the Social Democratic Party Mona Sahlin – who aspired to
become Sweden's first female Prime Minister – formed a coalition with the Greens but, after internal
pressure from her party’s left faction, was forced to include the Left Party in the coalition. The centre-left
Red Green coalition was formally announced on 7 December 2008 after the parties had managed to reach
agreement on basic principles of their economic policy. The Red Green Coalition hence consisted of three
parties – the Social Democrats, the Green Party, and the Left Party. The party leaders were Mona Sahlin,
Peter Eriksson/Maria Wetterstrand and Lars Ohly, respectively.
The Red Green Coalition made tackling unemployment one of its key campaign pledges. The Red Green
Coalition presented an election manifesto entitled: Responsibility for the whole of Sweden (Ansvar för hela
Sverige). During the campaign, the Red Green coalition contended that the Alliance – via their tax cuts and
reduced welfare benefits – had created a divided Sweden with lower welfare, and that the government had
failed to deal with high unemployment among young people and immigrants. The Coalition called for an
overall increase in public spending funded by increased income taxes, along with tax increases on alcohol,
tobacco and fuels.
Only half a year before the election, polls put the Red Green coalition in the lead and they appeared to be
heading for a comfortable victory. However, the poll ratings began to turn in late spring and the Red Green
Coalition continued to lose ground until Election Day, ending with a resounding loss.
The Sweden Democrats The Sweden Democrats had experienced a gradual increase in overall support, and when they received
3.3 per cent in the 2009 election to the European Parliament it was generally held that they had a good
chance of entering the Riksdag in 2010.
During the 2010 election campaign, the Sweden Democrats argued that Islam and Muslims were "unSwedish" and promised to reduce immigration by as much as 90 per cent. It portrayed immigration as an
economic burden on the welfare system. Party leader Jimmie Åkesson pledged to introduce tougher
citizenship requirements and stiffer penalties for crime, including obligatory expulsion of all foreigners
committing serious crimes. He also promised to raise spending on the elderly.
The closer the election approached, the more obvious it became that the Sweden Democrats had a real
chance of exceeding the 4 per cent threshold to enter the Riksdag. In order to avoid increasing the support
for the Sweden Democrats, the party was excluded from the official debates. All of the established parties
avoided debating issues of immigration and presented a more or less united pro-immigrant front during the
campaign. All of the Riksdag parties criticized the party’s anti-immigration platform and urged voters not
support it. Ahead of the election, both the Alliance and the Red Green Coalition pledged not to seek
support from the Sweden Democrats, and not to form a government in cooperation with them.
The result In the election, the four parties of the Alliance received 49.28 per cent of the votes and 173 seats in the
Riksdag, two seats short of a majority. The Red Green Coalition received 43.60 per cent of the vote and
156 seats (a decrease of 15 seats). The Green Party increased their national share of the votes by 2 per
cent (to 7.2 per cent) - even more in urban areas. The 2010 election also saw the nationalist Sweden
Democrats entering the Riksdag for the first time. The party became the sixth largest and received 5.70
per cent of the votes and 20 seats in the Riksdag. Although opinion polls had long pointed to the Sweden
Democrats making the 4 per cent threshold, voters of all political camps were dismayed that a party with
strong xenophobic tendencies had entered the Riksdag and also had achieved a pivotal position.
Voter turnout is traditionally high in Sweden, but in this election it increased further - from 82.0 per cent to
84.6 per cent. The increase can be explained by the relatively close race and the success of the Sweden
8 Part 1: Setting the Scene Democrats in mobilizing their supporters, as well as an attendant increase in the motivation of their
opponents. Tactical voting was at a record level in 2010. According to a survey by Statistics Sweden, the
Christian Democrats and Sweden Democrats would have been dangerously close to the 4 per cent
Riksdag threshold if they had not received tactical votes on Election Day, which aimed to keep them in the
Riksdag.
The largest party of the Alliance, Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt’s Moderate Party was the most
successful party of the election. The party received 30.06 per cent of the vote, an increase of 3.8
percentages from the previous election. The party had almost doubled its support since the general
election of 2002.
The Social Democrats recorded their worst result since inception with 30.66 per cent of the vote, meaning
that the party, which traditionally had dominated the Swedish political stage, just managed to cling on to its
position as Sweden's largest party. Many traditionally social democratic voters directly cited a wariness of
the Red Green Coalition. According to a poll by United Minds, 32 per cent of those who turned their back
on the Social Democrats did so mainly because of the collaboration with the Left Party.
Government competence – like the government’s handling of the economic crisis – the economy,
employment, taxes and immigration were the issues that led most voters to switch parties. Voter
uncertainty towards the Red Green coalition was also a common reason for switching parties. The
campaign turned out to focus on trust in the Prime Ministerial candidates of the two coalitions. In such a
competition, the incumbent Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt had a great advantage over the challenger
SAP leader Mona Sahlin who had struggled with low trust scores from the public and a great deal of
negative publicity.
The Alliance lost its majority in the Riksdag, and the established Riksdag parties had ruled out any
cooperation with the Sweden Democrats during the election campaign, which created an unclear political
situation. In order to form a stable government supported by a majority of the Riksdag, some kind of
cooperation across the political divide between the two coalitions was necessary, and the Prime Minister
reached out to the Green Party. The party dismissed the invitation at first but – a week after the election –
declared a willingness to support the Alliance in issues related to immigration and human rights.
On 23 September 2010, Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt announced that he would form a minority
government. Mr Reinfeldt became the first centre-right leader since 1921 to be returned to government
after serving a full term. On 4 October, the newly elected Parliament held its first session and re-elected
Mr Per Westerberg of the Moderate Party as its Speaker.
Reinfeldt issued a 30-page statement of the new government's policies, saying it would "seek a broadbased and responsible solutions", and that it would "be natural...to hold regular discussions with the Green
Party, in the first instance and also the Social Democratic Party where appropriate.
9 Part 1: Setting the Scene THE YEARS IN BETWEEN Sweden came out of the early years of the crisis (2008–2009) with its feathers ruffled, but since 2010, it’s
traditional heavy export industries have been able to capitalise on increasing demand from the global
market, and tax cuts and low interest rates have strengthened the domestic market. Still, unemployment
remains a serious challenge, and in late 2012 and early 2013 a number of large business enterprises
announced large layoffs. In addition to ever-present domestic issues like the economy, unemployment and
refugee and family immigration from outside of Europe, the political debate has focused a lot on the
welfare sector.
2011 and 2012 saw a few new faces in Swedish party politics. In 2011, The Centre Party elected 27-year
old Annie Lööf as leader. Ms Lööf is considered very much a liberal politician, who emphasizes the role of
the individual in society, and the importance of the market. The same year, the Green Party’s
spokespersons both stepped down, having served the maximum 9-years allowed by the party's
constitution. In May 2011 the party elected two new spokespersons, Gustav Fridolin and Åsa Romson.
2012 saw Mr Löfven being elected as the leader of the Social Democrats, and the Left Party choosing a
new leader to replace veteran Lars Ohly with Jonas Sjöstedt.
In May 2013, Mr Reinfeldt's government was criticised for being slow to act over the riots in the Stockholm
suburb of Husby, prompting the Sweden Democrats to raise questions about Sweden's traditional opendoor welcome to foreigners, while suggesting that child benefits should be withdrawn from the parents of
any rioters. The response to the unrest underlined fundamental differences between the government and
the left-green opposition. The Prime Minister portrayed the riots as the work of a few hundred “hooligans”,
and underlined the Government’s belief that it was a law-and-order problem by sending Minister for
Justice, Beatrice Ask, to a Riksdag debate that was held following the riots. Mr Åkesson would have
preferred to debate with the Minister for Integration. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats were keen to stress
the higher-than-average unemployment among the young in the suburbs and the need for better training or
education for the largely immigrant population as the causes for the unrest.
The government Alliance The 2010 election results clearly showed that the government’s lowering of the taxes and the austerity in
the benefit system did not put off the voters. The New Moderates (Nya Moderaterna), which had branded
itself as Sweden’s new labour party, had grown strong in the political centre while taking over many of the
SAP’s traditional issues. The SAP, in turn, had subsequently approved several key elements of the
Alliance’s policies – for example the reduction of income taxes.
The Alliance continued on its set path in its second term in office. Meanwhile, Sweden was about to get
out of the economic slump caused by the global financial crisis and recession with growth being
surprisingly strong at the end of 2010. In 2011, the Financial Times picked Finance Minister Anders Borg
as Europe’s best Finance Minister. Eventually, criticism arose of the Reinfeldt government – and Mr Borg –
of conducting overly cautious policies. The criticism came not only from the opposition but to an extent
also from its own rank and file. Many called for more aggressive fiscal policy when the world economy
continued to be shaky. While Sweden had fared better than most countries in Europe, the debt crisis in the
euro zone still threw long shadows and growth forecasts were eventually written down. However, 2012
saw signals of new initiatives: the government promised more money for research and investment into new
railways and roads and the corporate tax rate was lowered.
On some occasions, the government was prevented from enforcing its policies because it lacked a
majority in the Riksdag. For example, in the Spring of 2011, the red-green opposition together with the
Sweden Democrats managed to stop the sale process of state-owned companies SBAB, Telia Sonera and
Posten Norden, as well as parts of Vattenfall.
10 Part 1: Setting the Scene 2012 also saw some setbacks for the government, among them a weapons-export scandal, which led
Defence Minister Sten Tolgfors to resign. Heavy cuts in Swedish welfare state arrangements in recent
years (e.g. sick pay and unemployment benefits) have come with a social price, and reports of neglect in
privatised homes for the elderly cast a shadow on the government’s efforts to privatise parts of the welfare
state. The question of profits for companies operating in the public sector, for example health care
providers and independent (private) schools have given rise to heated public debates, and also internally
within the political parties.
Recently, cutbacks in the Armed Forces have provoked some controversy. In Spring 2013, the Reinfeldt
government and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt faced criticism for not reacting to Russia’s current military
build-up. Such accusations have generally been considered to be an attempt on behalf of the opposition to
highlight divides within the Alliance.
The party leaders of the small parties within the government Alliance have weathered their fair share of
internal criticism. The Centre Party has had trouble finding its place in a changing society and is pushing to
continue its political future with focus on turning Sweden into a green, liberal and enterprise-friendly
country. According to a recent survey by The Federation of Swedish Farmers one fifth of Sweden’s
farmers has disappeared in the last three years. And of course that is a group that represents the Centre
Party’s core voters. Appointed in 2012, the Centre Party leader Annie Lööf has generally failed to meet the
expectations of her party. A number of controversial suggestions in late 2012 and early 2013, as a part of
the attempt to formulate a new party program, have further added to internal opposition. Ahead of the
March 2013 conference, the party waged an intensely publicized internal debate on its ideas programme,
which included controversial ideas such as free immigration, a lax approach to compulsory school
attendance, and openness towards polygamy received much internal – and external – criticism and
caused Ms Lööf to return from her vacation in Thailand to try to calm the party ranks. After several
turbulent months, the Centre Party agreed on a new statement, leaving many of the controversial ideas
that caused the debate out of the party’s final statement of general policies.
In early 2012, a moral conservative fraction within the Christian Democrats tried to ouster long time party
leader Göran Hägglund. The attempt ultimately failed, but indicated a divided party and a general
impression among its own rank and file that Mr Hägglund stands out as too dependent on the main party
of the coalition government, the Moderates.
The opposition The Red Green Coalition was dissolved following the 2010 election. The Social Democrats had never lost
two consecutive elections and the 2010 election result meant the beginning of a difficult period of soulsearching. Following the disastrous results, party leader Mona Sahlin faced pressure from her party and
the youth league. Shortly afterwards, Ms Sahlin announced her resignation after four years as party
leader. However, there was no obvious successor and it was unclear what political course the party would
take to regain the initiative again. A crisis commission was formed to make a long-term analysis of where
the party went wrong and to suggest a new direction. Two of the main problems identified in the report
were the alliance with the Green Party and the Left Party, as well a failure to fight against growing
inequality in Swedish society. The commission also recommended reforming the party structure and
introducing more direct democracy within the Social Democrats.
In March 2011, the Chairman of the Riksdag Defence Committee, Håkan Juholt, was appointed party
leader of the SAP. However, Mr Juholt was criticized for unsteady leadership, and resigned after a mere
10 months following revelations of questionable housing. At the beginning of 2012, the Social Democratic
Party was in a miserable state with record-low rating and the loss of two leaders in the space of a year.
After a short process held behind closed doors, the wounded Social Democratic Party, with the lowest
opinion percentage ever (22 per cent), chose Stefan Löfven to turn the tide for the elections in 2014. Mr
Löfven was officially appointed on 27th of January 2012, marking the first time in its 124-year history that
the Social Democrats have had a union boss as leader. As such, Mr Löfven has tried to strike a balance
11 Part 1: Setting the Scene between being an advocate of traditional social democratic values and a supporter of the industrial sector.
Mr Löfven is not an elected member of the Riksdag, and is therefore unable to participate in the day-to-day
activities and debates in the Riksdag. The first couple of weeks after his appointment saw the Social
Democrats climb rapidly in the polls and an excited media was quick to lead with the “Löfven-effect”.
Following his appointment, Mr Löfven chose Magdalena Andersson to be his party's chief spokesperson
on economic affairs. A popular choice, Ms Andersson came from a job as the head director of the Swedish
Tax Agency, with a mandate to attack Mr Borg's policies.
2011 saw the Sweden Democrats collapsing in the polls a trend that was probably directly linked to the
terrorist attacks in Norway and the appreciation the terrorist Anders Behring Breivik had shown for the party
in his manifesto. In October last year, Sweden Democrat’s party leader Jimmie Åkesson declared that his
party was enforcing a zero-tolerance policy against racism. Despite several subsequent party scandals with
the consequence of resignations of politicians, the Sweden Democrats has strengthened its position in the
opinion polls.
THE CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION Sweden in 2013 may be described as a country muddling through, with the financial crisis in Europe still
affecting Sweden and government policies. The ruling coalition cannot muster a majority in parliament,
whereas the main opposition, the Social Democratic Party, is still suffering from problems of recent years.
The political newcomers, the Sweden Democrats, have by no means become a legitimate coalition partner,
even though the party’s popular support seems to be stable around 8-10 per cent.
In the polls In June, the twice-yearly Party Preference Survey (see Appendix 3) from Statistics Sweden showed the
opposition Social Democrats and Left and Green parties with a combined 50.5 per cent, compared with the
government Alliance at 40.7 per cent. The Sweden Democrats stood at 7.7 per cent. The next Party
Preference Survey will be published on December 4.
This year has seen a gradual decrease in public support for the Alliance. Since April, the Moderates have
dropped in the polls every month from 29.5 per cent to 24.7 per cent in September. However, the latest
opinion polls indicate that the Moderate Party has reversed its downward trend and made slight gains for
the first time in six months. The problem for Mr Reinfeldt is that two of the three smaller parties in the
Alliance – the Centre Party and the Christian Democrats - are struggling to maintain enough support to
stay in the Riksdag next year, as their core voters drift away and they have had difficulties generating a
strong profile in the coalition government. Meanwhile, the Moderate Party has been accused of threatening
to overshadow its smaller coalition partners. The Liberal Party is in need of a boost in the polls; it has been
polling below 7 per cent in the lead up to elections. But it is still the second largest party of the Alliance and
is fairing much better than the alliance's Centre Party and Christian Democrats, which are hovering around
the four per cent threshold, that would prevent them from entering the Riksdag in 2014.
The three red-green opposition parties, consisting of the Social Democrats, Greens and Left Parties, are
about ten percentage points ahead of the government alliance parties, according to opinion polls published
in November. While these three parties are no longer committed to forming a joint government, they are
still often seen as a political bloc and is portrayed as such in the opinion polls. The Green Party has been
loosing voter support lately, polling around 8 to 9 per cent, mainly in the Stockholm area. Support for the
Left Party continues to decline and the party currently enjoys support from around 6 per cent of the
electorate. The party is particularly losing support among the youngest age group, those between 18 and
29 years old, and among white-collar workers. However, the Left Party is continuing to win over supporters
from the Greens and the Social Democrats.
The Sweden Democrats, having gone to great lengths trying clean up their racist image and to
communicate mild social-conservative nationalism to the voters, are polling around 8-10 per cent,
12 Part 1: Setting the Scene confirming their position as the fourth biggest party, after the Social Democrats, the Moderates and the
Green Party, and providing the party with an opportunity to hold the balance of power after the 2014
election. However, the party has experienced turbulent period over the last year, having been heavily
monitored in Swedish mainstream media throughout 2012–2013. In November 2012, tabloid newspaper
Expressen published footage of three high-level party members (MP and financial spokesman, Erik
Almqvist, MP and International Secretary Kent Ekeroth, and Christian Westlin from the Stockholm City
Council) getting into a scuffle with an intoxicated man in Stockholm during the summer of 2010. The film
shows the three men making racist comments, harassing a woman and then arming themselves with iron
bars. The episode was filmed by Mr Ekeroth - a clip later obtained by Expressen. The incident evoked a
public outcry, and both Mr Ekeroth and Mr Almqvist were given new assignments, but were in the end not
forced to leave the parliament.
Party positioning Social Democrat leader Stefan Löfven has told journalists that he would not put the taxes back up after a
general election win next year. This has led to criticism that the Social Democrats are not a sufficiently
strong opposition party. But the Social Democrats are divided on the issue. Several leading party members,
including a member of the Party Executive Committee, Morgan Johansson, are opposing Mr Löfven
arguing that the tax money belongs in welfare rather than in the voters’ pockets. It is not the usual code of
conduct within the Social Democratic Party to openly disagree with a party leader, especially not in an
election year and on such a crucial policy issue. It also shows a disagreement in the opposition where the
Green Party wants to tear up the tax cut if they win the election and instead give the money to schools.
While Mr Reinfeldt and his team are a known quantity and mostly respected, some voters perceive Mr
Reinfeldt and Mr Borg as low on steam and lacking new ideas. Mr Reinfeldt is doing what he can: the
expansionary budget that was presented in September included the fifth tax cut and SEK 24 billion of
stimulus measures and the re-shuffle of his cabinet could prove to inject the energy needed into the
Ministry for Employment.
Meanwhile, the September budget presented the opposition with an opportunity to create a headache for
3
the government: the budget proposal to raise the tax bracket for those paying a higher rate of tax. In late
November, the red-green opposition parties, along with the Sweden Democrats, called for a new law to be
written to stop the government's proposal.
An October vote in the Riksdag showed how the smaller parties are willing to cooperate across party bloc
in order to profile themselves. The vote – on controversial changes to the generous severance pay
packages offered to MPs when they leave the Riksdag – prompted opposition from an array of smaller
political parties from across the political spectrum, namely the Centre Party, the Green- and Left Parties, as
well as the Sweden Democrats. The two bigger of the government's four coalition parties – the Moderates
and the Liberals – voted with the Social Democrats. Looking ahead, we will see more positioning from the
smaller parties ahead of the election, such as Mr Löfven’s explicit invitation to the Centre- and Liberal
Parties, or Birgitta Ohlsson’s (FP) suggestion that the Green Party could be invited to join a centre-right
4
coalition.
Within the government party positioning is taking place ahead of the election as the curse of governing as a
coalition is weighing down on the smaller parties. The opposition is accusing the government of "infighting",
and it appears many commentators agree. Recent examples include Integration Minister Erik Ullenhag of
the Liberal Party taking the Moderate Justice Minister, Beatrice Ask, to task over reports that Stockholm
police were engaging in racial profiling or the issue of job insurance, and the three smaller Alliance parties
have been at loggerheads with the Moderate Party, and in particular with Mr Borg.
3 The threshold is currently at SEK 413,200 per year. The government wants to raise the threshold so that only people earning more
than SEK 435,900 would have to pay income tax. 4 Ms Ohlsson later downplayed the statement, saying it was not an official proposal but instead an attempt to steal minority opposition
Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt's thunder after he mentioned potentially working with the Greens. 13 Part 1: Setting the Scene Looking ahead From the start of his leadership of the Social Democrats, Mr Löfven has been asked about a Red Green
Coalition and whether he intends to revitalise it ahead of the elections. In June, an opinion poll indicated
that a majority of the unions belonging to the Swedish Trade Union Confederation (LO) wanted the party to
enter the election alone and not to promise ministerial posts to the Green Party or the Left Party. But, times
have changed and the Social Democrats can no longer expect to hold power by themselves. At the same
time, they will not repeat Mona Sahlin's mistake of forming an official Red Green Coalition, rather they will
aim at forming a coalition government if they win in 2014. Mr Löfven himself has been ducking the question
of a coalition ever since he was appointed. But in November the Social Democrats declared that the party
is not planning to form a coalition, and will instead go to the polls with their own election manifesto. Mr
Löfven said that cementing alliances between parties is an impractical way of governing. In a debate article
in Swedish daily Dagens Nyheter, Mr Löfven and party secretary Carin Jämtin wrote that the party would
seek to end the bloc politics by being prepared to govern across the party line, singling out the Liberal Party
and the Centre Party as potential partners. In fact, the only party that the Social Democrats stated it would
not be prepared to rule with was the Sweden Democrats.
During 2013 the big issue for the mainstream parties has been how to handle the new political competitor –
the Sweden Democrats. Mr Reinfeldt and Mr Löfven have been fighting about which of their respective
parties have taken been most successful in taking on the Sweden Democrats. The narrow political distance
between the Social Democrats and the Moderates appears to be opening-up new space for the Sweden
Democrats; the support has nearly doubled from the 2010 election, with the party polling around 10 per
cent.
Meanwhile, the leader of the Left Party, Jonas Sjöstedt, has clarified that the Left's preference is still to be
part of a Red Green Coalition government after the 2014 election. He has also warned that the Social
Democrats and the Green Party have not ruled out cooperating with the Liberal Party, and said that the Left
Party would not be part of a government that promotes today's privatisation politics.
In the coming months, watch for:
o
o
o
o
How the established parties handle the issue of immigration, and whether they are willing to debate
the issue with the Sweden Democrats;
Party positioning and whether the parties of the centre are looking across the block divide;
How the smaller parties of the government Alliance will profile their particular party issues; and
The Pirate Party and Gudrun Schyman’s Feminist Initiative trying to re-enter the political arena
after a few years in the media shadow.
In the second edition of the Elections ’14 journal, we will take a closer look at the eight Riksdag parties and
explain their various stands on a number of topical issues, such as jobs, immigration, security, and
education, and explain related government polices. The next edition will be published on 7 February 2014.
14 Part 1: Setting the Scene APPENDIX 1 RESULTS IN THE 2010 ELECTION Eight political parties are represented in the Riksdag during the current electoral period (2010-2014).
Below is the final result for the Riksdag election on September 19, 2010.
Name of party
%
Difference
Seats
The Moderate Party (M)
30,06%
+3,83
107
The Centre Party (C)
6,56%
-1,32
23
The Liberal Party (FP)
7,06%
-0,48
24
Christian Democrats (KD)
5,60%
-0,99
19
Social Democrats (S)
30,66%
-4,33
112
Left Party (V)
5,60%
-0,24
19
The Green Party (MP)
7,34%
+2,09
25
Sweden Democrats (SD)
5,70%
+2,77
20
Other parties (ÖVR)
1,43%
-1,32
-
Election participation: 84,63 % (+ 2,64)
Number of persons entitled to vote (Riksdag election): 7 123 651
Source: Valmyndigheten and the Riksdag
15 Part 1: Setting the Scene APPENDIX 2 HISTORY OF SWEDISH ELECTIONS 2010 The ruling centre-right Alliance beats the left-of-centre coalition, but fails to gain an outright majority.
2006 The non-socialist parties form a four-party coalition government called the Alliance.
2002 and 1998 The Social Democrats remain in office after both elections, but in order to implement their policies are
forced to form a parliamentary alliance with the Left Party and the Green Party.
1994 The Social Democrats form a new minority government.
1991 A non-socialist minority government of the Moderates, Liberals, the Centre Party and Christian Democrats
is formed.
1988 and 1985 The Social Democrats remain in power after both elections.
1982 The non-socialist parties lose their majority and a Social Democratic minority government is formed.
1979 The non-socialist parties retain their parliamentary majority, and a new three-party government is formed.
In the spring of 1981, the Moderate Party leaves the Government.
1976 The Social Democrats are defeated by a coalition consisting of the Centre Party, the Moderates and the
Liberal Party.
1932 -­‐‑1976 The Social Democrats rule without interruption, except for a period of 109 days in 1936 when Sweden has
an interim government.
Source: www.sweden.se
16 Part 1: Setting the Scene APPENDIX 3 THE PARTY PREFERENCE SURVEY "If there were an election to the Riksdag today". 1972- 2013
Per cent
Source: Statistics Sweden, SCB,
17 Part 1: Setting the Scene REFERENCES Bjerling Johannes, The Personalisation of Swedish Politics. Party Leaders in the Election Coverage 19792010, University of Gothenburg
Government Offices of Sweden, http://www.regeringen.se
Holmberg Sören & Henrik Oscarsson (2013) Nya Svenska Väljare, Norsteds Juridik
Lindvall Johannes & Rueda David, Sweden’s Social Democrats: the insider-outsider dilemma,
http://politicsinspires.org
Nordström Niklas, The Failure of Sweden’s Red-Green Alliance, Policy Network
Oscarsson Henrik & Holmberg Sören (2011) Åttapartivalet 2010. University of Gothenburg
Oscarsson Henrik & Sören Holmberg (2011) Swedish voting behaviour. Report 2011:4 of the Swedish
National Election Studies Program. University of Gothenburg:
Political parties represented in the Riksdag:
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
The Social Democratic Party
The Moderate Party
The Green Party
The Liberal Party
The Centre Party
The Sweden Democrats
The Left Party
The Christian Democrats
http://www.socialdemokraterna.se
http://www.moderat.se
http://www.mp.se
http://www.folkpartiet.se
http://www.centerpartiet.se
http://sverigedemokraterna.se
http://www.vansterpartiet.se
http://www.kristdemokraterna.se
Political parties represented in the European Parliament:
o
The Pirate Party
http://www.piratpartiet.se
Riksdag & Departement, www.rod.se
Rothstein Bo, Därför har Socialdemokratin havererat, Newsmill,
http://www.newsmill.se/artikel/2010/09/22/d-rf-r-har-socialdemokratin-havererat
Statistics Sweden, Eight Parties Election 2010. and the Party Preference survey, May 2013:
http://www.scb.se/statistik/_publikationer/ME0201_2013M05_BR_ME60BR1301.pdf
Strömbäck Jesper & Nord, Lars (2013) Kampen om Opinionen, SNS Förlag
The Swedish Election Authority, Valmyndigheten, www.val.se
Utrikespolitiska Institutet, Landguiden
Valforskningsprogrammet, University of Gothenburg, http://www.valforskning.pol.gu.se
All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the editor's ability. If you would like
further information on any of the topics covered in this report, please contact Mundus International.
18