Exhibit 12- SURS 10252012_Final
Transcription
Exhibit 12- SURS 10252012_Final
Exhibit 12 Prepared for State Universities Retirement System of Illinois October 25, 2012 Agenda Exhibit 12 > Introduction to Pantheon and Presenters > What is Private Equity? Why Include it in a Portfolio? > ESG Issues and Pantheon‟s Approach > Pantheon Offerings > Pantheon USA Fund IX > Pantheon Europe Fund VII > Conclusion and Q&A > Appendices > Europe Scenario Planning > SURS Portfolio Update 2 Exhibit 12 Introduction to Pantheon and Presenters 3 Presenting to you today Exhibit 12 Susan Long McAndrews, Partner (joined 2002, 17 years of private equity experience) Susan is a member of Pantheon‟s Executive Committee and also leads Pantheon‟s North American primary fund investment activity. Susan is a member of the International Investment Committee, the US Regional Investment Committee and the Global Infrastructure Committee. Prior to joining Pantheon, she was a principal at Capital Z Partners in Asia, where she was responsible for executing investments in private equity funds and in fund management companies. In addition, Susan was a director at Russell Investments from 1995 to 1998 in their private equity group. Susan received a BA from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in International Studies and Economics and an MA from Stanford University in International Policy Studies. Susan is based in San Francisco. [email protected] Yokasta Segura-Baez, Vice President (joined in 2011, 7 years of private equity experience) Yokasta focuses on client services and business development activities in North America. In addition, Yokasta is the US representative on Pantheon‟s Responsible Investing steering committee which, among other things, establishes standards used by the firm in screening GP‟s and portfolio companies for environmental and sustainability practices. Previously, Yokasta was an Investor Relations Manager with AXA Private Equity, responsible for marketing all of AXA‟s private equity strategies in North America and for providing investor relations support for existing clients in the region. Prior to AXA, she practiced real estate law in the Dominican Republic. Yokasta has an undergraduate degree in Diplomacy from the University Catolica de Santo Domingo and an International Law degree with honors from the University of Santo Domingo. She received a Finance Certification from New York University and is fluent in Spanish and French. Yokasta is based in New York. [email protected] 4 Exhibit 12 Investing in private equity assets for 30 years Signatory of PRI Endorser of ILPA Private Equity Principles European Secondaries House of the Year Winner of Asia Asset Management 'Best of the Best Performance award’ 2011 1 Pantheon International Participations PLC As at 1st September 2012 3 As at 31st March 2012 2 5 Exhibit 12 Global representation and regional expertise US Europe Asia > US$12.8 billion in assets under management1 > US$8.4 billion in assets under management1 > US$2.7 billion in assets under management1 > San Francisco office opened in 1987 > London office opened in 1982 > Hong Kong office opened in 1992 > New York office opened in 2007 > 117 staff, 32 investment professionals > 15 staff, 8 investment professionals > 54 staff, 29 investment professionals EUROPE (1172) > London US (542) > San Francisco > New York ASIA (152) > at 31st March 2012 at 1st September 2012, number of team members located in each region. Note: Bogota office expected to open within the next 12 months Hong Kong 1 As 2 As Office Local presence 6 Exhibit 12 Experienced investment team with local presence U.S. Primaries European Primaries Asian Primaries Emerging Markets > > > > > > > US$8.9 billion in assets under management1 Investing in U.S for nearly 30 years 7 investment professionals - Supported by 9 junior investment professionals 136 years‟ combined PE experience > > > US$6.7 billion in assets under management1 Investing in Europe for nearly 30 years 7 investment professionals - Supported by 12 junior investment professionals Over 140 years‟ combined PE experience > > > US$1.8 billion in assets under management1 Investing in Asia for nearly 20 years 8 investment professionals Over 60 years‟ combined PE experience > > US$1.1 billion in total commitments2 11 investment professionals - Supported by 21 junior investment professionals Over 150 years‟ combined PE experience International Investment Committee Private equity years Chris Meads Head of Investment & Asian Primaries 16 Susan Long McAndrews Head of U.S. Primaries 17 10 Global Co-investment > > > > completed3 31 co-investments ($729m) Formal co-investment team since 2007 8 investment professionals - Supported by 21 junior investment professionals Over 180 years‟ combined PE experience 11 Elly Livingstone Head of Global Secondaries 15 Pantheon years 11 Dennis McCrary Head of Co-Investment 18 5 Helen Steers Head of European Primaries 23 8 Global Infrastructure Global Secondaries > US$434 million in assets under management1 > One of the first infrastructure fund of funds raised in 2010 > 6 investment professionals - Supported by 21 junior investment professionals > Over 160 years‟ combined PE experience > US$6.1 billion in assets under management, over 290 transactions completed1 > Investing in secondaries for over 20 years > 18 investment professionals - Supported by 21 junior investment professionals > Over 250 years‟ combined PE experience As at 1st August 2012 at 31st March 2012 2 As at 30th June 2011 3 2005 – Q1 2012 1 As 7 Exhibit 12 SURS & Pantheon: a decade of working together $25 million PGSF II 2002 2003 $600 million – Separate Account €68 million PEURO III 2004 Illinois enacts Sudan investment law; Pantheon signs affirmation each year going forward 2005 2006 Dec. 31st: PUSA IX & PEURO VII Final Close Pantheon becomes a PRI signatory 2007 €31 million PEURO VI $103 million PUSA VIII 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Pantheon endorses ILPA PE principles 8 Exhibit 12 What is Private Equity? Why Include it in a Portfolio? 9 Exhibit 12 What is private equity? Private equity Venture capital > Pre-revenue > Early-stage (startup) and growth equity (profitable/ expansion) > Information technology and healthcare emphasis > “Venture” profile of portfolio returns > Winners mitigate many losers Growth equity Buyouts > Revenue generating; cash flow breakeven > Well-established revenue and earnings > Expansion capital to successfully scale a business > Mature firms in need of capital or ownership transition > After end of technology risk phase > Returns depend on cash-flow growth > Returns depend on cash flow growth and leverage > Lower volatility of returns 10 Exhibit 12 Private equity: SURS investment example Institutional Investor SURS makes private equity fund of funds commitment to Pantheon Private Equity Fund of Funds Manager Pantheon commits to Weston Presidio V Private Equity Manager Portfolio Company Weston Presidio V invests in Jimmy John’s sandwich restaurant. Jimmy John’s stores grow from ~500 to ~1,500; earnings quadruple as they expand to 40 states. Current multiple of money invested = 7.0x 11 Exhibit 12 How does private equity create value? Strong corporate governance model Typical applications > Yields information advantage over public equities > Providing seed and growth capital to developing businesses > Provides ability to influence and change company management > Addressing succession issues and growth capital needs in family-owned firms > Creates alignment of interests > Unlocking value in under-funded subsidiaries of large corporations > Operates over long-term investment horizon > Restarting growth via take-privates of undervalued and undercapitalised publiclylisted companies Private equity drives value creation > Operational improvements > Entry / exit timing – multiple exit routes > Organic and external growth > Use of leverage 12 Primaries and secondaries are complementary strategies Exhibit 12 Primaries Secondaries Performance (NAV + distribution) Time Primaries Secondaries “Blind pool” commitment to a General Partner Portfolio is partly known and can be valued + Provide access to elite group of top quartile managers + Facilitate consistent exposure across vintage years + Permit thoughtful diversification by investment stage, sector, and geography - Initial management fees negatively impact NAV - Longer time horizon to distributions = Generally produce a higher multiple on invested capital than secondaries + Permit greater insight into portfolio composition at time of commitment + Absorb fund fees and expenses + Shorten time horizon to distributions - Opportunistic deal flow; unlikely to achieve target allocation to tier one managers - Market activity dictates degree of exposure to specific vintages, strategies, geographies, and managers; potential concentration risk = Generally produce a higher internal rate of return (IRR) than primaries 13 Exhibit 12 ESG Issues and Pantheon‟s Approach 14 What is ESG and why is it important? Exhibit 12 > ESG incorporates active consideration of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) factors within investment decision-making and ownership practices > To fulfil their fiduciary duty, investors need to give appropriate consideration to ESG issues, and the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) provide a framework for this > The PRI were developed by the United Nations Secretary-General and Pantheon has signed up to adhere to these principles Our clients are increasingly focusing on ESG issues and are asking us to prove that we take ESG considerations into account when making investments 15 Why is Responsible Investment important to Pantheon ? Exhibit 12 1. Our clients demand outstanding financial returns and excellent risk management > RI provides an avenue for additional value creation in portfolio companies > Identification of ESG risks forms an integral part of general risk management Engagement on RI enables better risk management and aims for enhanced returns over the long term 2. Our business is long term orientated and relies on our reputation and brand > Pantheon has been serving clients for 30 years and has $23.9 billion in AUM1 > We are considered a “reference investor” and leader in the industry Focus on RI protects our brand and reputation with both investors and GPs 3. Our company philosophy and culture > Pantheon has always upheld the highest ethical standards > “Doing the right thing” is embedded in our culture and business practices RI is central to Pantheon‟s philosophy 1 As at 31st March 2012 16 What is Pantheon doing to promote Responsible Exhibit 12 Investing ? Six main principles Integrating ESG in: > Due diligence > Reporting/monitoring > Risk matrix 1. Investment analysis/ processes 4. Promoting acceptance > Tabling ESG issues at advisory boards > Committed to following policy of active ownership 2. Active ownership 5. Working together > Importance of sound ESG practices highlighted during negotiations of Pantheon side-letters with GPs > Work with trade bodies on disclosure issues 3. Disclosure 6. Reporting > Educating clients through conferences, seminars and briefing notes > Working with GPs and LPs > Collaboration with clients, GPs and trade bodies > Encouraging GPs to report on ESG issues and their value add in reports to investors 17 Exhibit 12 Responsible Investing: Enhanced Returns Risk management Value creation initiatives Restructuring & repositioning Cost savings & efficiencies New products & services Exit premium Improved risk-adjusted returns 18 Exhibit 12 Pantheon USA Fund IX 19 Exhibit 12 Pantheon U.S. investment team U.S. Investment Committee 17 28 15 18 12 10 25 8 5 7 Brian Buenneke Partner MBA, Northwestern University AB, Dartmouth College Dennis McCrary Partner MBA, University of Michigan BA, Michigan State University Susan Long McAndrews Partner MA, Stanford University BA, UNC Chapel Hill David Braman Senior Partner MBA, University of Denver BA, Grinnell College 13 8 8 10 6 4 4 8 4 1 Kathryn Leaf Wilmes1 Partner MA, Oxford University BA, Oxford University Alexander Morgan Senior Associate BS, Boston University Brett Johnson Partner MBA, University of Chicago BA, Northwestern University Jeff Miller Principal MBA, Northwestern University BA, Gustavus Adolphus Evan Corley Vice President BS, Boston University Greg Little Vice President MBA, UCLA BS, University of California, San Diego Sara Lonergan Senior Associate MBA, Northwestern BA, Williams College 7 4 2 5 <1 7 4 2 5 <1 Jessica Hazlett Associate AB, Harvard University 6 1 Jeremy Weisberg Associate BSBA, University of Richmond Samir Mainthia Associate BSC, University of Michigan Jennifer Scott Associate AB, Princeton University 1 2 1 2 Daniele Pitsch Analyst BS, University of California, Berkeley Brandon Vu Associate B.S. University of California, Berkeley Curtis Suda Analyst BS, California Polytechnic Private equity years State University As at 1st October 2012 1 Kathryn‟s primary responsibility is to Pantheon‟s global infrastructure team and product area; she additionally provides coverage of the energy sector within the primary team Senior Associates, Associates and Analysts are a resource shared with other investment teams Pantheon years 20 Exhibit 12 Tepid sources of domestic (U.S.) growth likely over the medium term Public sector deleveraging Financial sector deleveraging U.S. Public debt as a percentage of GDP Leveraged loan & high yield maturity schedule 120% $450bn 110% $375bn 90% 100% $275bn $275bn $300bn $248bn 80% $150bn $106bn $84bn 30% 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Commercial real estate refinancing schedule U.S. surplus / deficit (in $bn) Case-Shiller Home price index $236 $128 $400bn $0 220.0 $350bn 200.0 $300bn -$161 -$248 -$380 -$459 -$322 -$402 $200bn -$623 160.0 $150bn -$973 $0bn Feb-11 Sep-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 May-09 Oct-08 Mar-08 Aug-07 Jan-07 Jun-06 Nov-05 Apr-05 2015 Sep-04 2013 2014 CRE Maturities Feb-04 100.0 2012 Jul-03 2016E 2014E 2012E 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 120.0 $50bn -$1,284 -$1,294 -$1,413 -$1,600 140.0 $100bn -$1,200 Dec-02 -$800 180.0 $250bn May-02 -$318 Oct-01 -$378 -$413 Mar-01 -$400 Jan-00 -$158 Aug-00 $400 50% $0bn 2012 2016E 2008 2012E 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960 1956 1952 1948 1944 1940 0% 70% 60% $38bn 1963 $75bn 90% $195bn $184bn $225bn 2019 60% U.S. household debt as a percentage of personal income 1960 120% Constrained consumer Thematic investment strategy tailored to the macroeconomic climate Sources: White House Office of Management and Budget, U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Credit Suisse, BNY Mellon, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Standard & Poor‟s. 21 Exhibit 12 Thematic investment approach to manager selection Seek out sectors with unique growth characteristics > GDP-correlated industries will be challenged by current environment Capitalize on lack of leverage and weak business environment > Growth tied to population, infrastructure, or innovation > Pay low valuations for pressured businesses > Healthcare, energy, certain technology sub-sectors > Invest opportunistically in debtoriented securities > Primarily accessed via sector-focused managers > Managers must demonstrate specialized skill-sets Emphasize value creation managers > Operationally intensive strategies outperform during low-growth periods > Favor managers investing in growing businesses, corporate partnerships, or buy-and-builds > Prefer managers with dedicated operating teams, sector expertise, or proprietary management teams 22 Outperformance versus public equities Exhibit 12 All U.S. funds, as at 31st March 2012 The following chart shows the investment performance of Pantheon‟s underlying funds investing in the U.S. by vintage year, measured against the S&P 500 Index. The data does not represent the actual performance of any particular fund managed by Pantheon, nor does it represent actual historical returns achieved by any client. US investments performance by vintage year1 Average of 831 bps outperformance per annum since 20002 80.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% Gross IRR (%) S&P 500 Index IRR (%)1 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Please note this data contains secondaries and co-investments made within PUSA I-VIII. Secondaries are included in the year of purchase. Performance calculated net of fees of underlying managers but before deduction of all Pantheon fees expense. 1The notional IRRs for the S&P 500 Index were calculated using the PME methodology, whereby the cashflows for the respective vintage year investments are hypothetically invested in the index. . This has been calculated on a money-weighted basis to provide a comparison against Pantheon‟s investments. All data is as at 31st March 2012 and in US$ terms. Source: Pantheon / Bloomberg. 2 The performance of underlying funds in the Pantheon USA Fund of Funds, have outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 831 basis points per annum on average for each of the vintage years 2000 – 2009. 23 Exhibit 12 PUSA IX commitment strategy PUSA IX target primary investment stage by commitment to funds Small / Mid Buyout 20% - 30% Special Situations 20% - 30% Large Buyout 10% - 20% Growth Equity 10% - 20% Venture Capital 5% - 15% Mega Buyout 5% - 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Primaries 25% Primary strategies > Emphasis on mid-market buyouts and special situations > Targeted commitments to a small number of top tier venture capital and mega buyout managers 30% Secondaries and Co-investments 35% Secondary and co-investment strategies > Up to 20% of PUSA IX will be allocated to co-investments and secondaries to enhance returns and mitigate “j-curve” > 22-year secondaries track record resulting in a composite gross IRR of 17.2% and net IRR of 13.1%1 > Proprietary co-investment deal flow 1 The composite IRRs aggregate all secondary investments (single and portfolios) made by Pantheon on behalf of its clients and funds between 1988 and 30th September 2011 Different valuation assumptions or methodologies may produce materially different results 24 Exhibit 12 PUSA IX indicative roadmap US funds by stage Buyout Small/Medium 20-30% Large 10-20% Mega 5-15% ABRY VII ARES COF IV Fund 1: $8.0b Buyouts & Distressed Arbor III Fund 2: $3.0b Industrial Fund 2: $8.0b Diversified Buyouts Venture Capital 5-15% Growth Equity 10-20% Special Situations 20-30% Accel XI Accel Growth II Riverstone V Andreessen Horowitz III Insight Venture Partners VII ABRY Senior Equity IV 2 Canaan IX Redpoint Omega II Wayzata III Opportunistic strategies PUSA IX will commit up to 20% to secondaries and co-investments1 8 Secondaries IOP II Fund 3: $4.0b Diversified Buyouts GGV Capital IV Shamrock III Fund 4: $1.4b Energy Fund 4: $4.0b Diversified Buyouts Khosla IV Fund 5: $2.0b IT, Consumer, Healthcare Fund 5: $2.5b Energy Parthenon IV Fund 5: $3.0b Financial Services Khosla Seed B Fund 6: $3.0b IT Fund 6: $520m IT, Consumer, Healthcare Water Street III Fund 6: $2.2b IT NEA 14 ONCAP III Fund 7: $1.0b Diversified Buyouts Fund 9: $440m IT Fund 8: $1.8b Diversified Buyouts Fund 10: $750m IT Fund 9: $535m Industrial Fund 8: $500m Healthcare Fund 10: $750m Diversified Buyouts Fund 7: $3.0b Distressed 16 Coinvestments Key Existing Pantheon Commitment Fund expected to be in the market in 2H 2012 44.2% Committed to funds 18.0% Drawn from Investors3 Both leveraged buyout and special situations investment strategies Number of funds is for illustrative purposes only and is indicative only; fund sizes based upon Pantheon estimates 1 PUSA IX reserves the right to invest up to 20% of its committed capital in funds and through secondary and co-investment strategies 2 The investment in ABRY Sr. Equity IV has been approved by IIC and is awaiting formal closing 3 As at September 25th, 2012 Reflects Pantheon opinion and forecasts as at 1st October 2012 25 Exhibit 12 Pantheon Europe Fund VII 26 Exhibit 12 Pantheon European investment team European Investment Committee 23 15 19 8 4 19 Francesco di Valmarana Partner > Italian/American national; speaks Italian & French Helen Steers Partner, Head of Europe > British/Canadian nationality; speaks French 13 14 10 12 7 7 Dushy Sivanithy Principal > UK national Alex Scott Principal > UK national Leon Hadass Principal > German national; speaks, French, Russian and Hebrew 13 6 9 2 1 5 5 1 5 2 <1 2 Erik Wong Principal > Chinese national; speaks Mandarin & Cantonese Raj Chall Associate > UK national; speaks Hindi Rob Wright Partner > UK national Eric Cheung Senior Associate > French national; speaks Mandarin & Cantonese Jérôme Duthu-Bengtzon Senior Associate > French national Jan Pribyl Senior Associate > Czech national; speaks Slovak Andres Reibel Senior Associate > German national Toni Vainio Senior Associate > Finnish national; speaks Spanish 4 3 1 1 <1 2 2 4 2 1 1 <1 <1 1 Louis Choy Associate > UK national; speaks Cantonese Pierre Garnier Analyst > French national Nadine Hellebrandt Analyst > German national Jonas Meister Analyst > German national Nick Kavanagh Analyst > UK national Jin Yan Analyst > Chinese national; speaks Mandarin Private equity years As at 1st September 2012 Senior Associates, Associates and Analysts are a resource shared with other investment teams Pantheon years 27 Exhibit 12 Change drives the European PE opportunity Globalisation Regulatory changes Austerity measures Deleveraging Cross-border M&A Buy-and-builds Privatisations Outsourcing Corporate spin-outs Family/private sales Ownership transition Demographic change 28 Exhibit 12 Thematic investment approach Emphasise geographies that are better positioned to perform > Modest debt levels support consumer demand > High ratio of exports to GDP provide growth opportunities > Relatively flexible labour markets provide for more rapid recovery Capitalise on social and economic change > Target managers who can take advantage of secular trends > Such themes include international M&A, globalisation, industrial restructuring, outsourcing and an ageing population Emphasise operational value-add strategies > Operationally-intensive strategies outperform during low-growth periods > Prefer managers with dedicated operating teams, sector expertise or proprietary management teams 29 Exhibit 12 Excellent long-term track record European investment performance as at 31st March 2012 > Consistent top-quartile performance in mature funds European investment performance by vintage year as at 31st March 2012 > Significant long-term outperformance versus public markets – 1,004bps premium achieved5 3 4 Outperformance of investments in PEURO funds against MSCI Europe is 10.0% as at 31st March 2012; the aggregated IRR is 12.0% for investments in PEURO I-VII and the Public Market Equivalent (PME) for the MSCI Europe index is -1.2%. For full details, please refer to „”Notes on presentation” (slide 59) 30 Exhibit 12 PEURO VII strategy tailored for the opportunity > Strategically diversified and risk managed portfolio Indicative stage allocations of PEURO VII primaries Indicative geographic allocations of PEURO VII primaries 60%-70% Targeted core Mid-market focus 15%-25% 5%-15% 0%-10% > Alpha-driven, mid-market focus > 75% in four core Northern European geographies > Carve-out option available > Selective exposure to other countries > Up to 20% allocation to secondaries and co-investments1 1 Subject to availability 31 Exhibit 12 PEURO VII indicative roadmap Multi-country funds Growth and Venture Mega buyout Large buyout Mid-market buyout €10.0bn Pan-European buyout fund €2.5bn Montagu IV €1.75bn IK VII £400m HgCapital Mercury €500m Index Growth II €4.25bn EQT VI €1.5bn Equistone IV £2.5bn Northern European buyout fund €400m Index Ventures VI €7.0bn Pan-European buyout fund $400m Venture fund €3.0bn Pan-European buyout fund $400m Venture fund Opportunistic strategies PEURO VII will commit up to 20% to Secondaries and Co-investments1 6 Secondaries Country-specific buyout funds 15 Co-investments UK France Germany Nordic Other Europe CEE £275m Mid buyout fund €850m Chequers XVI €700m DBAG VI SEK3.8bn Accent 2012 €400m Bencis IV €400m Abris II £300m Small buyout fund €800m Mid buyout fund €500m Mid buyout fund NOK6.0bn Mid buyout fund €1.2bn Mid buyout fund $1.0bn Baring Vostok V €400m Small buyout fund €2.0bn Mid buyout fund 52.4% Committed to funds 18.5% Drawn from Investors3 €1.5bn Mid buyout fund Key Funds currently in due diligence Existing Pantheon commitment SEK5.5bn Mid buyout fund As at 1st September 2012 Number of funds is indicative and for illustrative purposes only; fund sizes based upon Pantheon estimates 1 PEURO VII reserves the right to invest up to 20% of its committed capital in funds and through secondary and co-investment strategies 2 As at September 25th, 2012 32 Exhibit 12 Conclusion and Q&A 33 Exhibit 12 Pantheon: global leaders in private equity Outstanding track record Thematic strategy Deeply experienced team Client focus > Consistent first and second quartile performance1 > Significant public market outperformance > Strong realized returns across investment cycles > Investment strategy governed by macroeconomic viewpoint > Thematic approach complemented by rigorous selection process > Established FoF manager with 69 investment professionals2 > International Investment Committee members average 18 years of private equity experience2 > US$23.9 billion in assets under management globally3 > Interests aligned through Pantheon commitment, management ownership and global carry pool > Flexible offerings, tailored to meet individual client needs > Long-standing client partnerships; clear communication and open dialogue 1 Quartile data source: VentureXpert; data captured 15th November 2010 As at 1st September 2012 3 As at 31st March 2012 2 34 Exhibit 12 Appendices - Europe Scenario Planning - SURS Portfolio Update 35 Exhibit 12 Europe Scenario Planning 36 Exhibit 12 Summary > Pantheon’s base-case scenario There will be a small-scale break-up of the Eurozone, limited to exits by Greece and/or possibly Portugal > Pantheon preparation Pantheon is prepared for all possible scenarios from an operational and legal perspective, and has adjusted the strategy for PEURO VII to take into account the current uncertainty in Europe > Current Euro exposure As of Dec 2011, SURS‟ exposure to companies headquartered in countries using the Euro is limited to 38% in PEURO III, and 25% in PEURO VI > PIIGS exposure As at Dec 2011, SURS‟ exposure to PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) is limited, with only 5.8% of NAV in PEURO III, and 6.5% of NAV in PEURO VI > Euro-denominated funds Though 70-82% of funds in PEURO III and VI are Euro denominated, their underlying exposures have significant non-Euro underlying exposures > PEURO VII strategy The PEURO VII strategy is addressing the complexities of the European investment climate, with a heavy emphasis on “healthier” Northern European economies, with limited exposure to peripheral European economies 37 Exhibit 12 Historic context Timeline of key events: > Dec 2009 - Greece admits that its debts have reached €300bn. Greece is burdened with debt amounting to 113% of GDP - nearly double the Eurozone limit of 60%. Ratings agencies start to downgrade Greek bank and government debt > May 2010 – The Eurozone members and the IMF agree a €110bn bailout package to rescue Greece > Nov 2010 - The EU and IMF agree to a bailout package to the Irish Republic totalling €85bn > > Feb 2011 - Eurozone finance ministers set up a permanent bailout fund, called the European Stability Mechanism, worth about €500bn May 2011 – The Eurozone and IMF approve a €78bn bailout of Portugal > Feb 2012 The Eurozone backs a second Greek bailout of €130bn euros. > Jun 2012 - The Spanish government requests €100 billion in financial assistance from the EU to recapitalize its banks. > Sep 2012 – The President of European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, announces a program allowing for unlimited purchases of sovereign bonds from struggling euro-zone member states Source: Britannica, BBC 38 Exhibit 12 Map of Europe – Euro area membership USA Euro zone GDP ($bn) 15,094 13,076 GDP per capita ($) 48,442 39,268 76% 74%* ISK Central gov. debt (% of GDP) NOK SEK DKK £ € CHF *118% *142% 39 Exhibit 12 Eurozone scenarios More Likely, More Orderly Small-scale Eurozone break-up No Eurozone break-up > > > Continued austerity measures Increased involvement of ECB Euro-bloc stays intact Less Likely, More Disorderly > > > > One or more countries leave(s) Eurozone Limited to Greece and possibly Portugal Possibility that some smaller “stronger” countries such as Finland may also leave Exit can be temporary or permanent Large-scale Eurozone break-up > > > > Eurozone breaks up into core and periphery Multiple countries in the periphery Break-up is permanent Euro currency survives amongst the core as a successor to the D-Mark Euro disappears > > > Euro-bloc splinters as various countries elect to leave Euro retention amongst core group no longer viewed as viable National currencies return 40 Exhibit 12 Possible consequences No Eurozone break-up > Uncertainty until fiscal integration plan is implemented > Once implemented, “South” will continue to suffer through austerity and restructuring; “North” will suffer through joint guarantees > Banks will eventually recapitalise and bloc as a whole will stabilise > Inflation may rise due to ECB involvement, but not necessarily whilst banks retrench and fix balance sheets > Interest rates would rise for Northern core given joint guarantees > Impact on Euro fx unknowable but may appreciate in short term as confidence returns, with long term fx impacted by inflation > Cost of finance in South would fall significantly from today‟s levels; fiscal outlook would remain very poor 41 Exhibit 12 Possible consequences Small-scale Eurozone break-up > Currency of leavers would collapse (estimates range between 30-50%); risk of high inflation and trade barriers > Banking and economic crises in short term, within both Eurozone and leavers > In medium term, leavers may reap some rewards from cheaper currency > Corporate cost of financing for leavers will remain high, with or without default on Euro debt > Capital controls would be introduced; significantly reduced availability of debt > Euro (rump) may appreciate in medium term, but prior to break-up could depreciate significantly > Decline in long term export competitiveness of Euro core 42 Exhibit 12 Possible consequences Large-scale Eurozone break-up > Similar to small-scale break-up > Less likely that trade barriers are applied to leavers, the larger their number > Uncertainty would be worse and last longer; disorderly scenario is far more likely if contagion spreads beyond one or two leavers > Fx changes magnified compared to small-scale break-up > Major political consequences – the remaining core would accelerate fiscal and political integration > Significant impact on ROW and global trade flows 43 Exhibit 12 Possible consequences Eurozone disappears Short-Term Local Impact > > > > Return of national currencies Capital controls imposed Political, social and economic upheaval Euro debt re-denominated into local currencies Medium-Term > > > > Global Impact > > > > Contagion beyond Europe Spike in gold price, rush for soft commodities Short term food and gas stock-piling Banking crisis > > “Strong” ex-Euro countries see currency rise with negative effects on exports “Weak” ex-Euro countries see currencies fall with significant inflationary pressures Non-Euro, European countries affected by intra-Europe trade dislocations Fundamental European problems remain: sovereign and private indebtedness, and inflexible labour markets. Risk of lengthy period of stagnation Trade flows see significant disruption, with a significant impact on GDP growth globally 44 Exhibit 12 Potential strategy response arising from different scenarios Small-scale Eurozone break-up No Eurozone break-up Buy assets with inflation protection Continue to favor strong intra-Eurozone exporters Avoid “South” due to austerity and no fix to lack of competitiveness Maintain caution on extra-Eurozone exporters given potential for Euro appreciation as confidence returns Avoid assets heavily exposed to tax and regulatory reform risk Buy exporting assets in new currency areas (assuming no tariffs) favor domestic consumption within Euro core Continue to avoid investing within entire Eurozone prior to breakup Avoid Euro “out” companies left with € denominated debt Avoid labour-intensive, low value exporters within core which would suffer most from unit cost depr. amongst Euro “outs” Continue to avoid high leverage, near term refinancings Large-scale Eurozone break-up Buy exporting assets in “weakest” new currency areas Avoid price-regulated assets in new currency areas which may not keep up with increased inflation rates De-emphasise large / highly levered assets in “South” – increased cost of domestic financing Avoid Asian companies largely / solely reliant on European bank funding Euro disappears favor low leverage, domestic consumption businesses until fx rates clarified favor extra-Eurozone exporters within depreciating “South” favor soft commodities / key consumables De-emphasise intraEuropean exporters – short term currency volatility between the ex€ currencies will be very high De-emphasise large / highly levered assets in “South” – increased cost of domestic financing 45 Euro disappears – “Armageddon” scenario planning Exhibit 12 > Key considerations > CLIENTS: Communication with Pantheon‟s clients would be a key area of focus. In particular Pantheon should be well placed to provide supporting facts, status of the programmes and of the GPs in clients‟ portfolios. > LEGAL: The possibility of contracts confusion and disputes could create many problems for the commercial world as a whole. The direct impact on Pantheon should be manageable but the impact on trading could create headaches for GPs and indirectly for us. > OPERATIONS: Our systems are designed to run multi-currency programmes. It would be fairly easy for Pantheon to switch to whatever new currency arrangements were put into place. 46 Euro exposure – by location of headquarters of underlyingExhibit 12 portfolio companies PEURO III PEURO VI 3% 4% 3% Europe - Euro Europe - Euro 12% Europe - Non-Euro 6% 38% 25% 22% CEE - Non-Euro North America 41% SURS Commitment weighted Europe - Euro 15% Europe - Non-Euro CEE - Non-Euro 34% 6% Europe - Non-Euro CEE - Non-Euro 5% Other Non-Europe, Non-Euro North America 44% Other Non-Europe, Non-Euro North America 42% Other Non-Europe, Non-Euro Note: Percentage allocations represent NAV exposure as at 31/12/2011 > The pie-charts represent the location of the headquarters of underlying portfolio companies within PEURO III and PEURO VII > On a commitment weighted basis, only 34% of exposure is to portfolio companies which are located in countries which use the Euro as their currency > PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) represent 5.8% and 6.5% of NAV exposure within PEURO III and PEURO VI, respectively 47 Exhibit 12 Euro exposure – by underlying fund currencies PEURO III PEURO VI 0.0% 4.3% SURS Commitment weighted 1.0% 0.3% 13.0% 7.3% 14.9% 14.2% USD EUR GBP NOK 82.8% 69.9% 13.6% USD USD EUR EUR GBP GBP NOK NOK 78.8% Note: Percentage allocations represent commitment exposures as at 31/3/2012 > The charts represent the underlying fund currencies of funds, secondary deals and co-investments in which PEURO III and PEURO VI have invested > On a commitment weighted basis 79% of funds are Euro denominated, with GBP and USD denominated funds accounting for 14% and 7%, respectively 48 PEURO VII – Conservative portfolio construction PEURO VII Expected underlying fund currencies1 PEURO VII Exposure by location of headquarters of underlying portfolio companies2 3% 5% 7% EUR 7% 9% Europe - Euro GBP 13% 41% SKR 70% NOK Europe - Non-Euro CEE - Non-Euro USD 1. 2. Exhibit 12 45% North America Percentage allocations based on PEURO VII roadmap as at 25 September 2012 Based on 22 portfolio company investments by underlying PEURO VII funds, excluding co-investments and secondaries as at 25 September 2012 > The geographic allocation of PEURO VII is selective and includes mainly countries that are better positioned economically for the future > The portfolio will be invested predominantly in Northern Europe; exposure to PIIGS countries will be limited > The first 22 Investments made by underlying PEURO VII funds have an exposure of 30% to the UK, 30% to Germany and 15% to Sweden. Please note, that geographic allocations are indicative only and the final outcome will depend on regular review of the market opportunity, manager selection decisions and, in turn, the investment decisions of the underlying managers. “Other” includes non-European exposure. The horizontal line denotes a nominal industry benchmark. This is calculated by reference to the total value of deals completed by geography as a % of total 49 Exhibit 12 SURS Portfolio Update 50 SURS portfolio update Exhibit 12 As at 30th June 2012 State Universities Retirement System Fund size US$852.9m Relationship start date First commitment Percentage committed Fund NAV 2002 Jan 02 100.0% US$577.7m 30 Jun 2012 Drawn 86.2% Distributions / Paid-in 0.66 x Residual value / Paid-in 0.79 x Total value / Paid-in 1.44 x Fund IRR (Gross) 10.9% Performance against benchmarks 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 10.9% 7.2% 2.2% Q403 Q204 Q404 Q205 Q405 Q206 Q406 Q207 Q407 Q208 Q408 Q209 Q409 Q210 Q410 Q211 Q411 Q212 Pantheon SURS IRRIRR Wilshire 5000 Total Return Index Wilshire 5000 Total Return Index +5% 51 SURS fund development (gross to SURS) Exhibit 12 As at 30th June 2012 1,200 1,000 $m 800 600 400 200 0 Q102 Q103 Q104 Q105 Cumulative distributions Q106 Q107 Q108 Net Asset Value Q109 Q110 Q111 Q112 Cumulative calls 52 Investment summary Exhibit 12 As at 30th June 2012 Portfolio Breakdown Portfolio Breakdown (by Commitment) (by Total Value) 3% 3% 2% 12% Separate Account 4% 10% 71% 6% Separate Account 13% PEURO III LP PEURO III LP PEURO VI LP PEURO VI LP PUSA VIII LP PUSA VIII LP PGSF II LP PGSF II LP 77% $ millions Funded/Unfunded Commitments by Fund 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Unfunded Series2 Funded Series1 Separate Account PEURO III LP PEURO VI LP PUSA VIII LP PGSF II LP Total Portfolio 53 Investment summary Exhibit 12 As at 30th June 2012 No. Commitment Paid-in Paid-in/ committed Distributions NAV Total value $m % $m % $m $m $m Multiple Gross IRR Separate Account Buyout 30 386 45 352 91 246 290 535 1.52 x 11.4% Venture 19 118 14 110 94 43 92 135 1.23 x 5.3% Special situations 8 67 8 62 93 53 45 97 1.57 x 12.1% Direct Secondaries 11 31 4 28 92 39 7 46 1.62 x 16.1% Total Separate Account 68 601 71 553 92 380 434 814 1.47 x 10.6% PEURO III LP 1 87 10 82 94 82 51 133 1.63 x 15.3% PEURO VI LP 1 36 4 21 58 1 22 23 1.08 x 3.2% PUSA VIII LP 1 103 12 58 56 3 61 64 1.11 x 6.2% PGSF II LP 1 25 3 22 90 18 10 28 1.23 x 6.2% Total Funds of Funds 4 251 29 183 73 103 144 247 1.35 x 11.8% 72 853 100 736 86 483 578 1061 1.44 x 10.9% Funds of Funds Total investments 54 Exhibit 12 SURS vintage year analysis As at 30th June 2012 No. Vintage year analysis Commitment Paid-in Paid-in/ committed Distributions NAV Total value $m % $m % $m $m $m Multiple Gross IRR 2001 1 87 10 82 94 82 51 133 1.63 x 15.4% 2002 8 39 5 36 92 46 16 62 1.72 x 13.3% 2003 6 60 7 54 91 61 43 104 1.90 x 16.5% 2004 20 165 19 156 95 143 91 234 1.50 x 11.5% 2005 20 188 22 173 92 91 149 241 1.39 x 8.5% 2006 11 119 14 109 92 44 98 142 1.30 x 7.1% 2007 6 195 23 125 64 16 129 145 1.16 x 6.7% 72 853 100 736 86 483 578 1061 1.44 x 10.9% Total investments Note: Secondaries are included in the year the deal took place (i.e. not the original year of the fund). 55 Exhibit 12 SURS portfolio diversification at underlying fund level As at 30th June 2012 Stage diversification Geographic diversification (by commitment) (by commitment) 1% Buyout Generalist 0% 8% 16% 10% Asia Venture Europe Directs 18% USA 62% Special situations Global Secondary 83% 1% Vintage year diversification (commitments) 250 $m 200 150 100 50 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Note: Secondary fund acquisitions are shown by reference to their original vintage. 56 SURS quarterly calls and distributions Exhibit 12 $m As at 30th June 2012 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Paid-in during quarter Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Distributed during quarter 2011 $57.6m $123.2m Contributions Distributions Net Cash Flow to SURS +$65.6m 1H 2012 $26.2m $48.2m +$22.2m 57 SURS portfolio summary Exhibit 12 > Portfolio continues to show strong absolute performance as well as relative performance vs. the public benchmark > Buyouts, Special Situations, and Secondaries have driven positive performance; Venture Capital performance has improved but continues to lag > 2007 fund-of-funds commitments have begun to mature and demonstrate value creation > Distributions have been robust totaling $95 million in 2010, $123 million in 2011, and $48 million in 1H 2012. > Portfolio has been cash flow positive with distributions exceeding capital calls in each quarter since the beginning of 2010 58 Exhibit 12 Notes on presentation Performance data (slide 30) 1 The VentureXpert median and quartile figures represent the net IRRs of all private equity in Europe, with the same investment years as the respective Pantheon fund-of-funds. Source: VentureXpert; data captured 10th August 2012. 2 These are pro-forma funds that represent the investments selected and made by Pantheon on behalf of its discretionary clients. These are not actual structured fund-of-funds, but investments aggregated into three-year periods to provide a basis of meaningful comparison to Pantheon‟s European funds-of-funds that commenced in 1997. This data includes secondaries and co-investments made in PEUROs I – VI. Secondaries are included in the year of purchase. Performance calculated net of underlying managers fees, but before all Pantheon fees. Source: Pantheon 3 4 The IRRs shown for the MSCI Europe index were calculated using the PME methodology, whereby the cashflows for the respective vintage year investments are hypothetically invested in the index. Source: MSCI/ Pantheon 5 The performance of investments in PEURO I-VI includes secondaries and co-investments. The index used for performance comparisons is the MSCI Europe index. This has been calculated on a money-weighted basis to be on a comparable basis as the Private Equity funds. The benchmarking methodology used is the Public Market Equivalent (PME), which assumes that the private equity cashflows are notionally invested in the stated index. All data is as at 31st March 2012 and in € terms. Source: Pantheon/ MSCI/ Bloomberg. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 59 Disclosure Exhibit 12 This document and the information contained herein is the confidential and proprietary information of Pantheon; it may not be reproduced, provided or disclosed to others, or used for any other purpose, without the prior written permission of Pantheon; and must be returned promptly upon request. This document is distributed by Pantheon which is comprised of operating entities principally based in San Francisco, London and Hong Kong. Pantheon Ventures Inc. and Pantheon Ventures (US) LP are registered as investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom. Pantheon Ventures (HK) LLP is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. In Australia, this document and the information contained herein is intended only for wholesale investors under section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) ("Wholesale Investor"). By receiving this document you represent and warrant that you are a Wholesale Investor. Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in relation to the provision of any financial product advice regarding the financial products which are referred to in this document and is regulated by the FSA under UK laws, which differ from Australian laws. In Europe and the United Kingdom, this document and the information contained herein is provided by Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP solely to professional clients or eligible counterparties for the purposes of the rules of the Financial Services Authority. In all other jurisdictions, this document is intended for institutional clients and investors to whom this document can be lawfully distributed without any prior regulatory approval or action. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer or solicitation to invest in a fund managed or advised by Pantheon or recommendation to purchase any security or service. Nothing contained in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice. The general opinions and information contained in this publication should not be acted or relied upon by any person without obtaining specific and relevant legal, tax, securities or investment advice. In general, alternative investments such as private equity or infrastructure involve a high degree of risk, including potential loss of principal invested. These investments can be highly illiquid, charge higher fees than other investments, and typically do not grow at an even rate of return and may decline in value. These investments are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as registered investment products. In addition, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This presentation may include “forward-looking statements”. All projections, forecasts or related statements or expressions of opinion are forward-looking statements. Although Pantheon believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct, and such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a guarantee, prediction or definitive statement of fact or probability. All information or discussion in these materials regarding funds managed/advised by Pantheon or its affiliates is qualified entirely by the terms and provisions of the relevant private placement memorandum(s) and limited partnership agreement(s) for such fund(s). Any reference to the title of “Partner” in these materials refers to such person‟s capacity as a partner of Pantheon Ventures (UK) LLP. In addition, any reference to the title of “Partner” for persons located in the United States refers to such person‟s capacity as a limited partner of Pantheon Ventures (US) LP. Copyright © Pantheon 2012. All rights reserved. 60
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